PiRate Ratings College Football–September 29-October 1

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
BYU	Utah St.	23.2	21.6	22.5
Houston	Tulane	3.1	2.8	4.0
Middle Tennessee	UTSA	-7.3	-4.7	-5.9
Boise St.	San Diego St.	7.3	6.6	7.5
UCLA	Washington	2.8	1.7	2.9
UNLV	New Mexico	10.7	8.5	11.9
Wisconsin	Illinois	11.3	10.1	12.1
Penn St.	Northwestern	25.1	23.9	26.9
Boston College	Louisville	-10.6	-8.3	-10.9
Coastal Carolina	Georgia Southern	7.7	9.5	9.5
Florida St.	Wake Forest	10.4	10.4	10.5
Army	Georgia St.	6.8	7.8	5.1
Clemson	North Carolina St.	4.5	5.3	5.0
Pittsburgh	Georgia Tech	25.8	25.1	26.4
Maryland	Michigan St.	1.3	2.5	3.0
Duke	Virginia	-8.9	-6.5	-9.5
North Carolina	Virginia Tech	11.6	11.3	13.6
Old Dominion	Liberty	-3.1	-4.6	-5.1
South Florida	East Carolina	-4.6	-5.5	-6.4
Central Florida	SMU	4.9	6.3	5.4
Ball St.	Northern Illinois	-10.9	-10.5	-11.2
Minnesota	Purdue	10.7	11.3	13.2
James Madison	Texas St.	16.2	17.1	20.4
Air Force	Navy	16.2	17.3	19.0
Baylor	Oklahoma St.	1.0	1.5	0.8
Kansas	Iowa St.	-2.7	-4.2	-5.4
Louisiana	South Alabama	1.9	1.4	1.8
Memphis	Temple	20.2	18.3	22.0
Tulsa	Cincinnati	-12.1	-12.1	-13.4
Eastern Michigan	Massachusetts	16.6	16.8	19.3
Utah	Oregon St.	10.3	9.9	11.4
New Mexico St.	Florida Int’l.	15.6	14.9	16.9
Washington St.	California	6.4	6.9	6.1
Arizona	Colorado	7.8	9.5	8.8
USC	Arizona St.	13.9	14.9	14.5
Oregon	Stanford	14.5	16.4	15.9
Ole Miss	Kentucky	7.2	4.8	4.6
Kansas St.	Texas Tech	7.5	7.6	6.3
Ohio St.	Rutgers	33.0	32.4	37.0
Mississippi St.	Texas A&M	6.3	3.8	3.6
TCU	Oklahoma	-3.8	-4.1	-4.6
Iowa	Michigan	-7.4	-7.3	-9.0
Texas	West Virginia	8.8	7.9	9.1
Auburn	LSU	-6.0	-6.8	-7.1
Arkansas	Alabama	-12.9	-13.7	-13.9
Missouri	Georgia	-28.2	-26.3	-30.6
Toledo	Central Michigan	3.4	2.6	2.2
Buffalo	Miami (O)	-4.3	-4.5	-4.8
Connecticut	Fresno St.	-20.6	-19.0	-24.0
Akron	Bowling Green	-9.0	-7.2	-8.8
Kent St.	Ohio	9.2	9.2	8.3
Arkansas St.	Louisiana-Monroe	3.1	4.4	4.4
North Texas	Florida Atlantic	-3.1	-5.3	-2.2
Charlotte	UTEP	-4.4	-3.3	-4.9
Nebraska	Indiana	3.5	4.0	4.8
Western Kentucky	Troy	11.6	11.1	12.3
Rice	UAB	-11.9	-12.4	-13.9
Wyoming	San Jose St.	-0.9	0.7	-0.8

FBS vs. FCS Spreads

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Appalachian St.	The Citadel	32.4
Florida	Eastern Washington	27.4
Marshall	Gardner-Webb	27.7
Western Michigan	New Hampshire	20.4
South Carolina	South Carolina St.	32.5
Syracuse	Wagner	51.0

Teams With A Bye This Week

Colorado St.

Hawaii

Louisiana Tech

Miami (Fla.)

Nevada

Notre Dame

Southern Miss.

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	132.8
2	Alabama	131.3
3	Ohio St.	130.9
4	Michigan	123.9
5	Minnesota	121.3
6	Clemson	118.5
7	Oklahoma	118.3
8	Tennessee	117.7
9	Penn St.	117.6
10	Utah	117.0
11	Oklahoma St.	116.8
12	NC State	116.6
13	L S U	115.3
14	Ole Miss	115.1
15	Wisconsin	115.0
16	Baylor	114.9
17	Arkansas	114.8
18	Pittsburgh	114.0
19	Florida St.	113.9
20	Mississippi St.	113.8
21	Iowa	113.0
22	Oregon	113.0
23	Purdue	112.6
24	Cincinnati	112.6
25	Kentucky	112.5
26	U S C	112.5
27	Notre Dame	112.5
28	Texas A&M	112.2
29	Texas	112.2
30	Kansas St.	112.0
31	Michigan St.	111.9
32	T C U	111.6
33	Maryland	111.1
34	Miami (Fla.)	110.3
35	BYU	110.2
36	Louisville	109.9
37	Washington	109.6
38	Oregon St.	109.5
39	Iowa St.	109.4
40	U C L A	109.1
41	Syracuse	107.9
42	Texas Tech	107.8
43	South Carolina	107.4
44	West Virginia	106.6
45	UCF	106.5
46	Wake Forest	106.5
47	Florida	106.4
48	North Carolina	106.2
49	Illinois	105.9
50	Auburn	105.6
51	SMU	104.0
52	Washington St.	103.6
53	Air Force	103.4
54	Kansas	102.3
55	W. Kentucky	102.1
56	Fresno St.	101.9
57	Houston	101.5
58	Missouri	101.4
59	Virginia	101.4
60	Arizona St.	101.1
61	Tulane	100.7
62	Nebraska	100.6
63	Stanford	100.4
64	California	100.1
65	East Carolina	100.0
66	Rutgers	99.8
67	Indiana	99.5
68	Boise St.	99.3
69	U A B	99.1
70	Army	98.6
71	Appalachian St.	98.6
72	Memphis	98.0
73	Boston College	97.4
74	Virginia Tech	97.1
75	Tulsa	97.0
76	Coastal Carolina	96.9
77	U T S A	96.8
78	Liberty	96.8
79	James Madison	96.6
80	N. Illinois	96.4
81	Northwestern	95.3
82	San Diego St.	95.2
83	Arizona	95.2
84	Marshall	94.8
85	Georgia St.	94.5
86	Toledo	94.5
87	Central Mich.	94.3
88	Miami (Ohio)	93.8
89	Vanderbilt	93.7
90	Troy	93.0
91	South Alabama	92.9
92	Louisiana	92.7
93	U N L V	92.1
94	USF	92.0
95	Kent St.	91.5
96	San Jose St.	91.3
97	Georgia Tech	91.2
98	Duke	90.6
99	Old Dominion	90.5
100	Ga. Southern	90.5
101	Western Mich.	90.3
102	Florida Atlantic	90.2
103	Southern Miss.	90.1
104	Colorado	89.5
105	Utah St.	89.3
106	Navy	88.9
107	Middle Tennessee	88.3
108	Wyoming	87.9
109	Buffalo	86.7
110	U T E P	86.6
111	Bowling Green	86.4
112	Eastern Mich.	85.6
113	Nevada	85.4
114	Arkansas St.	85.1
115	Ohio	85.1
116	New Mexico	84.2
117	North Texas	84.2
118	Rice	83.9
119	UL-Monroe	83.6
120	Ball St.	83.6
121	Colorado St.	81.6
122	Texas St.	81.2
123	Louisiana Tech	81.0
124	Temple	80.9
125	Charlotte	79.8
126	Connecticut	77.7
127	Akron	76.0
128	New Mexico St.	75.2
129	Hawaii	71.2
130	Massachusetts	70.6
131	Florida Int’l.	61.9

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	112.2	111.7	113.8	112.6
UCF	106.1	106.8	106.7	106.5
SMU	104.3	103.4	104.3	104.0
Houston	101.7	100.8	102.0	101.5
Tulane	101.1	100.5	100.5	100.7
East Carolina	99.9	99.5	100.6	100.0
Memphis	98.0	98.3	97.7	98.0
Tulsa	97.2	96.6	97.3	97.0
USF	92.8	91.5	91.7	92.0
Navy	89.7	88.8	88.2	88.9
Temple	80.8	83.0	78.7	80.9
AAC	98.5	98.2	98.3	98.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	118.5	118.3	118.8	118.5
NC State	117.0	116.0	116.8	116.6
Florida St.	114.1	113.8	113.9	113.9
Louisville	110.6	109.5	109.6	109.9
Syracuse	108.7	107.6	107.3	107.9
Wake Forest	106.7	106.4	106.4	106.5
Boston College	97.4	98.7	96.2	97.4
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Pittsburgh	114.9	113.8	113.4	114.0
Miami (Fla.)	110.8	109.6	110.4	110.3
North Carolina	106.3	106.4	106.1	106.2
Virginia	102.0	102.0	100.2	101.4
Virginia Tech	97.7	98.0	95.5	97.1
Georgia Tech	92.1	91.7	90.0	91.2
Duke	90.6	93.0	88.2	90.6
ACC	106.2	106.0	105.2	105.8
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	118.7	117.7	118.6	118.3
Oklahoma St.	117.4	115.9	117.2	116.8
Baylor	115.4	114.4	115.0	114.9
Texas	112.9	111.8	111.8	112.2
Kansas St.	112.7	111.4	111.9	112.0
T C U	112.4	111.1	111.5	111.6
Iowa St.	109.3	109.3	109.5	109.4
Texas Tech	108.1	106.8	108.6	107.8
West Virginia	107.1	106.9	105.7	106.6
Kansas	103.7	102.1	101.1	102.3
Big 12	111.7	110.7	111.1	111.2
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	131.2	129.7	132.0	130.9
Michigan	124.4	123.2	124.2	123.9
Penn St.	117.7	117.7	117.6	117.6
Michigan St.	112.9	111.7	111.1	111.9
Maryland	111.2	111.2	111.1	111.1
Rutgers	101.1	100.3	98.0	99.8
Indiana	100.7	99.9	98.0	99.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Minnesota	121.3	120.8	121.7	121.3
Wisconsin	115.5	114.9	114.6	115.0
Iowa	114.0	112.9	112.2	113.0
Purdue	113.6	112.5	111.5	112.6
Illinois	106.3	106.9	104.6	105.9
Nebraska	101.2	100.9	99.8	100.6
Northwestern	95.6	96.7	93.7	95.3
Big Ten	111.9	111.4	110.7	111.3
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
W. Kentucky	101.3	101.4	103.7	102.1
U A B	98.5	98.7	100.1	99.1
U T S A	97.3	95.9	97.2	96.8
Florida Atlantic	89.8	91.1	89.8	90.2
Middle Tennessee	87.5	88.7	88.8	88.3
U T E P	86.7	86.3	86.6	86.6
North Texas	84.2	83.3	85.1	84.2
Rice	84.1	83.8	83.7	83.9
Louisiana Tech	80.9	82.2	79.7	81.0
Charlotte	79.7	80.5	79.3	79.8
Florida Int’l.	61.6	64.2	59.9	61.9
CUSA	86.5	86.9	86.7	86.7
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	112.9	111.3	113.2	112.5
BYU	110.8	109.2	110.6	110.2
Army	98.4	98.8	98.7	98.6
Liberty	95.6	97.2	97.5	96.8
Connecticut	78.2	79.1	75.8	77.7
New Mexico St.	74.7	76.6	74.3	75.2
Massachusetts	71.3	71.8	68.6	70.6
Independents	91.7	92.0	91.2	91.6
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	92.1	94.7	94.5	93.8
Kent St.	90.6	92.8	91.1	91.5
Buffalo	85.3	87.7	87.2	86.7
Bowling Green	87.0	85.9	86.2	86.4
Ohio	83.9	86.0	85.3	85.1
Akron	76.0	76.7	75.4	76.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
N. Illinois	96.2	96.6	96.5	96.4
Toledo	93.7	94.7	95.2	94.5
Central Mich.	92.8	94.6	95.5	94.3
Western Mich.	89.8	90.6	90.5	90.3
Eastern Mich.	85.4	86.0	85.4	85.6
Ball St.	83.3	84.2	83.3	83.6
MAC	88.0	89.2	88.8	88.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Air Force	102.9	103.1	104.3	103.4
Boise St.	99.5	98.5	99.9	99.3
Utah St.	89.1	89.1	89.6	89.3
Wyoming	86.7	88.9	88.2	87.9
New Mexico	84.5	84.8	83.4	84.2
Colorado St.	81.4	82.2	81.4	81.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	101.8	101.1	102.8	101.9
San Diego St.	95.2	94.9	95.4	95.2
U N L V	92.6	90.7	92.9	92.1
San Jose St.	90.6	91.2	92.0	91.3
Nevada	84.9	86.6	84.8	85.4
Hawaii	70.7	71.9	71.1	71.2
MWC	90.0	90.2	90.5	90.2
Pac-12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	116.8	115.9	118.5	117.0
Oregon	113.4	112.8	112.8	113.0
U S C	111.9	112.5	113.1	112.5
Washington	108.9	109.8	110.2	109.6
Oregon St.	109.4	108.9	110.1	109.5
U C L A	108.7	108.6	110.1	109.1
Washington St.	103.0	103.7	104.0	103.6
Arizona St.	101.0	100.6	101.6	101.1
Stanford	101.9	99.4	99.9	100.4
California	99.6	99.8	101.0	100.1
Arizona	95.3	95.1	95.1	95.2
Colorado	90.5	88.6	89.3	89.5
Pac-12	105.0	104.6	105.5	105.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	132.8	131.4	134.2	132.8
Tennessee	117.5	117.6	117.9	117.7
Kentucky	111.9	112.6	113.1	112.5
South Carolina	107.7	106.9	107.5	107.4
Florida	105.8	107.3	106.2	106.4
Missouri	101.6	102.0	100.6	101.4
Vanderbilt	93.9	94.7	92.4	93.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	131.1	130.3	132.4	131.3
L S U	115.7	115.0	115.1	115.3
Ole Miss	116.2	114.4	114.7	115.1
Arkansas	115.2	113.6	115.5	114.8
Mississippi St.	114.7	113.2	113.5	113.8
Texas A&M	111.4	112.3	112.9	112.2
Auburn	106.7	105.2	105.0	105.6
SEC	113.0	112.6	112.9	112.9
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	97.2	98.8	99.6	98.6
Coastal Carolina	95.6	97.1	97.9	96.9
James Madison	94.3	96.3	99.2	96.6
Marshall	94.4	95.3	94.7	94.8
Georgia St.	94.1	93.4	96.1	94.5
Old Dominion	90.5	90.6	90.4	90.5
Ga. Southern	90.4	90.1	90.9	90.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	92.2	92.8	93.9	93.0
South Alabama	92.1	92.8	93.9	92.9
Louisiana	92.0	92.2	93.7	92.7
Southern Miss.	89.7	90.3	90.3	90.1
Arkansas St.	84.3	85.8	85.2	85.1
UL-Monroe	83.7	83.9	83.3	83.6
Texas St.	80.6	81.7	81.3	81.2
Sun Belt	90.8	91.5	92.2	91.5

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	112.9
2	Big Ten	111.3
3	Big 12	111.2
4	Atlantic Coast	105.8
5	Pac-12	105.0
6	American Athletic	98.4
7	Independents	91.6
8	Sun Belt	91.5
9	Mountain West	90.2
10	Mid-American	88.7
11	Conference USA	86.7

Coming In October

As October leads the College Football worlds into mostly conference play, it’s time to start looking ahead at the Playoffs and Bowl Projections. The PiRates do it a bit differently from others. We don’t make our projections based on what each team has done to the present time, like most others. We first forecast the rest of the season and then make our projections based on what we believe the standings will be. Additionally, we plan to do our best to explain the inexact rules for where teams can go. No longer can you look and see who will finish 3rd in a conference and then know where the 3rd place team is automatically slotted to go bowling. It’s more like the 1960’s, where the bowls can choose which teams they want with the help of the conferences that have the tie-ins. In the case of many bowls, multiple conferences can be in the mix, and ESPN can steer the teams into the bowls they want them to appear so as to attempt to get their maximum TV ratings.

This Week’s Playoff Projections

1.) Alabama

2.) Ohio State

3.) Georgia

4.) USC

Top Group of 5 (For The Cotton Bowl Bid)

1.) Cincinnati

2.) Central Florida

3.) Coastal Carolina

4.) Air Force

5.) Middle Tennessee

Our Unique Way of Compiling our College Retrodictive Ratings

We have been asked by multiple readers to explain a little more in depth how we compile our PiRate Retrodictive ratings and what exactly this rating means.

 

By the way, if you have comments you would like to make, please visit our sister site and use the “contact us” link, at:

http://piratings.webs.com/

There are basically two types of ratings in sports like football and basketball. The first type is Predictive, and this type is used by sports bettors. As the name implies, these ratings are used to attempt to predict the outcomes of the next week of games. If State U has a rating of 106.5, and Tech has a rating of 102.3, then on a neutral field, State would be expected to beat Tech by 4.2 points. Of course, home field advantage could alter this predictive spread by additional points. The regular PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings are predictive in nature. A team that started the season 0-4 and then finished 8-4 might be favored in a bowl over a team that went 11-1, because what the 8-4 team did in its first four games is not as important as what they did in their final games.

Retrodictive ratings or rankings look backward and rate the teams on what they have done to date. What the team did in its first game is just as important as what they did in their most recent game. It is an attempt to rank the teams by their performance on their whole body of work. That 8-4 team would most likely be rated well behind the 11-1 team on the body of work to date.

Our Retrodictive Rankings take considerably more time to compile than our regular PiRate Ratings. First, there are three components to the ranking. The first is rather obvious–wins and losses. The second is also obvious–strength of schedule. The third is well known to many, but you may not realize that in addition to strength of schedule, the strengths of schedule of all the opponents played is vitally important.

As an example, let’s say that Iowa opens the season with a win over Boston College. As the season goes on, Iowa’s rating is influenced by what Boston College does and what all the teams Boston College plays do. So, if Iowa has a bye after that first game, and Boston College proceeds to beat Florida State the following week, Iowa’s rating is going to go up almost as much as Boston College’s rating goes up.

Point differential can be included in retrodictive-style ratings, and we here at the PiRate Ratings have a rather unique way of including the type of score in a team’s wins and losses. It is not an exact science, but we like our version and believe it has merit over standard point differential. Here is a rundown on this process.
What type of win or loss was this game for the team in question? We rate wins and losses as:
A. Blowout
B. Decisive
C. Good
D. Fortunate
E. Tossup

A blowout win does not have to be by 40 points. If a team wins 28-0 and holds their opponent to 150 total yards, this rates as a blowout. If a team led 42-0 at halftime and then won 49-24, it still counts as a blowout. If a team led 24-20 midway through the third quarter and then won 45-20, this will usually not count as a blowout.

A decisive win is one in which the winner would have won this game close to 100% of the time but did not win in such a way that allowed the team to rest its starters for the final 20-25 minutes of the game. A 35-10 win with the winner leading 21-10 and scoring 14 points in the fourth quarter would be one example of a decisive but not blowout win.

A good win is one in which the winner would have probably won 7 to 8 times out of 10 with the same stats generated. A 10-17 point win is often a good win, unless the winner was outgained by more than 100 yards.

A fortunate win is one in which the winner won by 4-9 points but the outcome was always in doubt. In some cases, the winner had stats that looked more like they should have been the loser.

A tossup win is the same as a fortunate win but with the final spread being 1-3 points. All overtime wins count as tossup wins.

The better the win, the more points the winner receives and the loser gives up. If Georgia beats North Carolina 42-14, they receive more points than if they beat the Tar Heels 17-14.

For strength of schedule, we rate each of the 128 FBS teams from 10 to -10 in tenths so that the current top team is ranked as a 10, and the number 128 team is ranked as -10. FCS teams receive a rating of 5.0 to -15.0.

Let’s say that through 4 games, Oklahoma has played teams that currently rate in our strength of schedule as 9.2, 8.6, 5.4, and 1.3 points. The Sooners’ average schedule strength is 6.1. We are not done yet. Now, we have to adjust this number based on the strength of Oklahoma’s opponents’ schedule other than playing the Sooners. So, if that 9.2 strength team played a schedule to date that averages 5.8, and the other three teams played schedules with 4.3, 7.1, and -2.9, Oklahoma’s opponents’ strength of schedules average to 3.6.
Obviously, Oklahoma’s own strength of schedule of 6.1 is worth more than their opponents’ strength of schedule of 3.6, but their schedule strength portion of the equation is lower than 6.1 because of the weaker scheduling of their opponents. In this case, the algorithm we use through 4 games played will lower the overall strength to about 5.3.

We combine the score for the team’s wins and losses with the schedule strength, and it leaves us with a final number between 10 and -10. In actuality, no team approaches these outlier numbers. For instance, this week, Alabama comes in at 8.27 to be number one, while Texas State and Buffalo bring up the rear at -7.59. Because these are not predictive, you cannot use these numbers to predict the outcome of a game should Alabama play Texas State or Buffalo.

Of course, home field advantage is factored into the outcomes of the games. If Georgia beats Clemson between the hedges by a score of 17-14, it does not count as much as if they had defeated the Tigers 17-14 at Howard’s Rock.

We hope that clarifies and not confuses you further.  We are better with numbers than with letters.

College Football Preview–August 26, 2016

The College Football season kicks off a week earlier than normal this year thanks to the California Golden Bears playing the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at ANZ Stadium in Sydney, Australia.  The chosen venue is the former site of the 2000 Summer Olympic Games, but in our opinion, this game would have been better placed in the Sydney Cricket Grounds, where the current Australian Football League Sydney Swans play.  48,000 seats are more than enough for these two teams, and ANZ Stadium holds around 80K.  Past games in Australia have drawn fewer than 20,000 fans.

 

Here are the initial PiRate Retrodictive Rankings For 2016.  Retrodictive refers to how teams have done so far to date, trying to rate the teams in order of who they have beaten and who has beaten them; they are not able to be used to predict the future, like our regular Predictive Ratings, which follow below.  Obviously, with no games played to date, these rankings are not yet Retrodictive.  Rather than re-list last year’s final Retrodictive Rankings, we have applied the updates to the 128 teams’ regular ratings to last year’s final rankings.

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Oklahoma
2	LSU
3	Florida St.
4	Alabama
5	Tennessee
6	Clemson
7	Ohio St.
8	Michigan
9	USC
10	Oklahoma St.
11	Ole Miss
12	Stanford
13	Louisville
14	Washington
15	TCU
16	Oregon
17	Georgia
18	Notre Dame
19	North Carolina
20	Florida
21	Arkansas
22	Auburn
23	Pittsburgh
24	Iowa
25	Miami (Fla)
26	UCLA
27	Texas
28	Texas A&M
29	Michigan St.
30	Mississippi St.
31	Washington St.
32	Wisconsin
33	Baylor
34	West Virginia
35	Nebraska
36	Utah
37	Penn St.
38	Virginia Tech
39	Arizona St.
40	Houston
41	BYU
42	North Carolina St.
43	Arizona
44	Georgia Tech
45	Boise St.
46	Northwestern
47	South Florida
48	Kansas St.
49	San Diego St.
50	Boston College
51	Texas Tech
52	Cincinnati
53	Minnesota
54	Virginia
55	Missouri
56	Indiana
57	Western Michigan
58	Temple
59	Vanderbilt
60	Syracuse
61	Kentucky
62	Air Force
63	Navy
64	California
65	Colorado
66	Toledo
67	Wake Forest
68	South Carolina
69	Appalachian St.
70	Illinois
71	Iowa St.
72	Central Michigan
73	Memphis
74	Western Kentucky
75	Duke
76	Northern Illinois
77	Connecticut
78	Georgia Southern
79	Purdue
80	Maryland
81	Utah St.
82	Tulsa
83	Rutgers
84	Marshall
85	Bowling Green
86	Oregon St.
87	Arkansas St.
88	MTSU
89	Nevada
90	Southern Miss.
91	Louisiana Tech
92	East Carolina
93	Ohio
94	San Jose St.
95	SMU
96	Colorado St.
97	New Mexico
98	Army
99	Rice
100	Akron
101	Kansas
102	UNLV
103	Central Florida
104	Troy
105	Florida Atlantic
106	Florida Int’l.
107	Buffalo
108	Fresno St.
109	Ball St.
110	Old Dominion
111	Georgia St.
112	Tulane
113	Kent St.
114	UL-Lafayette
115	Wyoming
116	Miami (O)
117	Idaho
118	South Alabama
119	Massachusetts
120	UTEP
121	Hawaii
122	UTSA
123	Eastern Michigan
124	Charlotte
125	New Mexico St.
126	North Texas
127	UL-Monroe
128	Texas St.

Here are the regular PiRate Ratings for the opening week of the season.  In some cases, these ratings differ slightly from the ratings given during the conference previews of the last 10 days, the reason being that players have quit, been injured, or transferred since the data was first compiled.

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Tennessee	127.7	121.8	128.4	126.0
2	LSU	127.6	121.1	126.8	125.2
3	Oklahoma	125.6	122.1	125.6	124.4
4	Alabama	126.5	119.0	125.0	123.5
5	Clemson	126.8	116.4	125.7	123.0
6	Florida St.	122.9	115.4	121.9	120.1
7	Michigan	120.0	118.0	120.4	119.5
8	Mississippi St.	120.1	115.9	119.7	118.6
9	Stanford	121.3	112.8	120.4	118.2
10	Oklahoma St.	117.5	118.8	117.5	117.9
11	USC	119.7	114.3	118.0	117.3
12	Washington	119.4	110.4	119.1	116.3
13	Louisville	118.6	111.8	118.0	116.1
14	Texas	114.4	118.0	114.4	115.6
15	Pittsburgh	117.1	111.7	116.4	115.1
16	North Carolina	117.4	109.2	117.1	114.6
17	Auburn	114.5	113.8	113.9	114.1
18	TCU	113.3	115.6	113.2	114.0
19	Notre Dame	116.2	111.0	114.8	114.0
20	Florida	113.5	116.8	111.1	113.8
21	Arkansas	116.4	110.3	114.2	113.7
22	Miami	116.6	108.0	115.9	113.5
23	Ohio St.	113.3	113.5	113.5	113.4
24	Iowa	114.6	110.9	114.2	113.2
25	Georgia	112.5	114.0	112.1	112.9
26	Michigan St.	113.1	112.4	111.1	112.2
27	Oregon	112.8	111.8	111.7	112.1
28	Texas A&M	112.1	111.4	112.0	111.8
29	Virginia Tech	111.0	110.8	111.5	111.1
30	Ole Miss	113.6	107.4	112.1	111.0
31	Washington St.	112.3	107.6	112.0	110.7
32	UCLA	110.9	110.2	110.3	110.5
33	Houston	110.1	108.3	111.9	110.1
34	Baylor	109.4	109.7	110.6	109.9
35	Penn St.	109.5	111.3	108.0	109.6
36	Nebraska	110.4	105.9	110.5	108.9
37	Arizona St.	108.7	109.2	107.7	108.6
38	Utah	111.4	105.3	108.9	108.5
39	Wisconsin	109.1	105.9	109.5	108.2
40	BYU	110.6	102.9	110.3	107.9
41	South Florida	108.3	105.7	109.5	107.8
42	Northwestern	109.7	103.5	108.1	107.1
43	North Carolina St.	108.0	104.7	107.6	106.8
44	Georgia Tech	108.1	104.2	107.4	106.6
45	West Virginia	106.6	106.1	106.0	106.2
46	Arizona	107.2	105.2	106.1	106.2
47	Boise St.	104.4	105.7	106.3	105.5
48	Colorado	107.0	102.1	107.0	105.4
49	San Diego St.	104.9	102.2	108.2	105.1
50	Boston College	105.1	103.6	104.9	104.5
51	Kansas St.	103.1	107.5	102.5	104.4
52	Vanderbilt	106.9	100.7	105.1	104.3
53	Minnesota	104.8	102.8	104.7	104.1
54	Texas Tech	104.9	102.3	102.7	103.3
55	Virginia	104.4	101.2	103.8	103.1
56	Syracuse	105.2	101.0	103.1	103.1
57	Indiana	101.5	106.0	100.9	102.8
58	Missouri	103.0	101.8	102.5	102.5
59	Western Michigan	102.0	100.9	103.9	102.3
60	Cincinnati	101.5	102.7	102.5	102.3
61	Temple	102.2	101.2	103.1	102.2
62	Maryland	100.9	104.2	98.1	101.1
63	Wake Forest	102.3	99.2	101.5	101.0
64	Tulsa	99.7	102.2	100.4	100.8
65	Kentucky	100.4	102.3	99.2	100.6
66	Toledo	101.0	98.9	101.8	100.6
67	Memphis	102.7	97.8	100.8	100.5
68	Central Michigan	98.9	101.9	99.9	100.2
69	Air Force	99.9	100.2	100.1	100.1
70	California	104.7	93.3	101.0	99.7
71	Duke	99.4	100.7	98.0	99.4
72	Iowa St.	99.8	99.2	98.7	99.2
73	Illinois	100.6	97.2	99.8	99.2
74	Navy	99.2	99.0	98.6	99.0
75	South Carolina	99.0	99.3	98.1	98.8
76	Northern Illinois	97.3	98.9	98.4	98.2
77	Purdue	99.4	96.6	98.3	98.1
78	Connecticut	98.3	96.1	98.6	97.7
79	Western Kentucky	99.3	93.3	100.0	97.5
80	Rutgers	99.0	96.2	97.3	97.5
81	Bowling Green	96.7	94.7	97.3	96.2
82	Appalachian St.	95.5	95.7	97.1	96.1
83	New Mexico	94.3	97.6	95.6	95.9
84	Oregon St.	97.8	93.0	95.0	95.3
85	Marshall	92.5	96.9	94.3	94.6
86	Utah St.	93.2	97.1	93.0	94.4
87	Nevada	92.3	95.6	93.6	93.9
88	Arkansas St.	91.9	94.2	94.4	93.5
89	Georgia Southern	93.0	91.7	95.5	93.4
90	SMU	93.7	92.1	93.2	93.0
91	Southern Mississippi	92.7	92.1	93.8	92.9
92	East Carolina	91.6	94.6	91.7	92.6
93	Middle Tennessee	91.2	93.8	92.3	92.4
94	Ohio	88.7	98.2	90.1	92.4
95	San Jose St.	91.0	91.0	91.9	91.3
96	UNLV	89.0	93.6	89.1	90.6
97	Kansas	88.3	96.1	85.9	90.1
98	Colorado St.	88.2	90.6	89.0	89.3
99	Army	84.2	93.2	86.6	88.0
100	Rice	84.7	94.1	85.1	88.0
101	Akron	84.8	92.6	86.5	88.0
102	Old Dominion	85.8	89.2	86.4	87.1
103	Central Florida	85.9	88.6	85.9	86.8
104	Florida Atlantic	84.9	88.6	86.8	86.8
105	Louisiana Tech	85.4	88.6	86.0	86.7
106	Troy	83.6	90.2	85.2	86.4
107	Florida International	82.4	89.6	84.3	85.4
108	Buffalo	80.8	90.1	82.2	84.4
109	Ball St.	83.6	85.6	83.8	84.3
110	Georgia St.	81.7	87.1	83.9	84.2
111	Fresno St.	82.1	87.1	81.9	83.7
112	Tulane	82.2	86.1	82.0	83.4
113	Miami (O)	82.2	84.0	82.9	83.0
114	Kent St.	82.3	84.5	82.2	83.0
115	Wyoming	82.5	82.5	82.6	82.6
116	UTSA	78.4	87.1	80.9	82.2
117	Idaho	78.1	85.2	79.7	81.0
118	UL-Lafayette	76.3	86.8	78.7	80.6
119	Eastern Michigan	78.1	83.6	79.5	80.4
120	South Alabama	75.3	85.2	76.2	78.9
121	Massachusetts	75.0	84.5	76.2	78.6
122	UTEP	74.5	79.5	75.8	76.6
123	Hawaii	77.0	76.5	75.7	76.4
124	Charlotte	73.0	81.1	74.6	76.2
125	New Mexico St.	73.7	76.5	74.9	75.0
126	North Texas	74.0	76.6	73.7	74.8
127	UL-Monroe	67.9	73.3	68.3	69.8
128	Texas St.	68.8	69.5	69.5	69.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	108.3	105.7	109.5	107.8
Cincinnati	101.5	102.7	102.5	102.3
Temple	102.2	101.2	103.1	102.2
Connecticut	98.3	96.1	98.6	97.7
East Carolina	91.6	94.6	91.7	92.6
Central Florida	85.9	88.6	85.9	86.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	110.1	108.3	111.9	110.1
Tulsa	99.7	102.2	100.4	100.8
Memphis	102.7	97.8	100.8	100.5
Navy	99.2	99.0	98.6	99.0
SMU	93.7	92.1	93.2	93.0
Tulane	82.2	86.1	82.0	83.4
AAC Averages	98.0	97.9	98.2	98.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	126.8	116.4	125.7	123.0
Florida St.	122.9	115.4	121.9	120.1
Louisville	118.6	111.8	118.0	116.1
North Carolina St.	108.0	104.7	107.6	106.8
Boston College	105.1	103.6	104.9	104.5
Syracuse	105.2	101.0	103.1	103.1
Wake Forest	102.3	99.2	101.5	101.0
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Pittsburgh	117.1	111.7	116.4	115.1
North Carolina	117.4	109.2	117.1	114.6
Miami	116.6	108.0	115.9	113.5
Virginia Tech	111.0	110.8	111.5	111.1
Georgia Tech	108.1	104.2	107.4	106.6
Virginia	104.4	101.2	103.8	103.1
Duke	99.4	100.7	98.0	99.4
ACC Averages	111.6	107.0	110.9	109.9
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	125.6	122.1	125.6	124.4
Oklahoma St.	117.5	118.8	117.5	117.9
Texas	114.4	118.0	114.4	115.6
TCU	113.3	115.6	113.2	114.0
Baylor	109.4	109.7	110.6	109.9
West Virginia	106.6	106.1	106.0	106.2
Kansas St.	103.1	107.5	102.5	104.4
Texas Tech	104.9	102.3	102.7	103.3
Iowa St.	99.8	99.2	98.7	99.2
Kansas	88.3	96.1	85.9	90.1
Big 12 Averages	108.3	109.6	107.7	108.5
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Michigan	120.0	118.0	120.4	119.5
Ohio St.	113.3	113.5	113.5	113.4
Michigan St.	113.1	112.4	111.1	112.2
Penn St.	109.5	111.3	108.0	109.6
Indiana	101.5	106.0	100.9	102.8
Maryland	100.9	104.2	98.1	101.1
Rutgers	99.0	96.2	97.3	97.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Iowa	114.6	110.9	114.2	113.2
Nebraska	110.4	105.9	110.5	108.9
Wisconsin	109.1	105.9	109.5	108.2
Northwestern	109.7	103.5	108.1	107.1
Minnesota	104.8	102.8	104.7	104.1
Illinois	100.6	97.2	99.8	99.2
Purdue	99.4	96.6	98.3	98.1
Big Ten Averages	107.6	106.0	106.7	106.8
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	99.3	93.3	100.0	97.5
Marshall	92.5	96.9	94.3	94.6
Middle Tennessee	91.2	93.8	92.3	92.4
Old Dominion	85.8	89.2	86.4	87.1
Florida Atlantic	84.9	88.6	86.8	86.8
Florida International	82.4	89.6	84.3	85.4
Charlotte	73.0	81.1	74.6	76.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Southern Mississippi	92.7	92.1	93.8	92.9
Rice	84.7	94.1	85.1	88.0
Louisiana Tech	85.4	88.6	86.0	86.7
UTSA	78.4	87.1	80.9	82.2
UTEP	74.5	79.5	75.8	76.6
North Texas	74.0	76.6	73.7	74.8
CUSA Averages	84.5	88.5	85.7	86.2
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	116.2	111.0	114.8	114.0
BYU	110.6	102.9	110.3	107.9
Army	84.2	93.2	86.6	88.0
Massachusetts	75.0	84.5	76.2	78.6
Independents Averages	96.5	97.9	97.0	97.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Bowling Green	96.7	94.7	97.3	96.2
Ohio	88.7	98.2	90.1	92.4
Akron	84.8	92.6	86.5	88.0
Buffalo	80.8	90.1	82.2	84.4
Miami (O)	82.2	84.0	82.9	83.0
Kent St.	82.3	84.5	82.2	83.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	102.0	100.9	103.9	102.3
Toledo	101.0	98.9	101.8	100.6
Central Michigan	98.9	101.9	99.9	100.2
Northern Illinois	97.3	98.9	98.4	98.2
Ball St.	83.6	85.6	83.8	84.3
Eastern Michigan	78.1	83.6	79.5	80.4
MAC Averages	89.7	92.8	90.7	91.1
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	104.4	105.7	106.3	105.5
Air Force	99.9	100.2	100.1	100.1
New Mexico	94.3	97.6	95.6	95.9
Utah St.	93.2	97.1	93.0	94.4
Colorado St.	88.2	90.6	89.0	89.3
Wyoming	82.5	82.5	82.6	82.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	104.9	102.2	108.2	105.1
Nevada	92.3	95.6	93.6	93.9
San Jose St.	91.0	91.0	91.9	91.3
UNLV	89.0	93.6	89.1	90.6
Fresno St.	82.1	87.1	81.9	83.7
Hawaii	77.0	76.5	75.7	76.4
MWC Averages	91.6	93.4	92.3	92.4
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Stanford	121.3	112.8	120.4	118.2
Washington	119.4	110.4	119.1	116.3
Oregon	112.8	111.8	111.7	112.1
Washington St.	112.3	107.6	112.0	110.7
California	104.7	93.3	101.0	99.7
Oregon St.	97.8	93.0	95.0	95.3
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
USC	119.7	114.3	118.0	117.3
UCLA	110.9	110.2	110.3	110.5
Arizona St.	108.7	109.2	107.7	108.6
Utah	111.4	105.3	108.9	108.5
Arizona	107.2	105.2	106.1	106.2
Colorado	107.0	102.1	107.0	105.4
Pac-12 Averages	111.1	106.3	109.8	109.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Tennessee	127.7	121.8	128.4	126.0
Florida	113.5	116.8	111.1	113.8
Georgia	112.5	114.0	112.1	112.9
Vanderbilt	106.9	100.7	105.1	104.3
Missouri	103.0	101.8	102.5	102.5
Kentucky	100.4	102.3	99.2	100.6
South Carolina	99.0	99.3	98.1	98.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
LSU	127.6	121.1	126.8	125.2
Alabama	126.5	119.0	125.0	123.5
Mississippi St.	120.1	115.9	119.7	118.6
Auburn	114.5	113.8	113.9	114.1
Arkansas	116.4	110.3	114.2	113.7
Texas A&M	112.1	111.4	112.0	111.8
Ole Miss	113.6	107.4	112.1	111.0
SEC Averages	113.9	111.1	112.9	112.6
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	95.5	95.7	97.1	96.1
Arkansas St.	91.9	94.2	94.4	93.5
Georgia Southern	93.0	91.7	95.5	93.4
Troy	83.6	90.2	85.2	86.4
Georgia St.	81.7	87.1	83.9	84.2
Idaho	78.1	85.2	79.7	81.0
UL-Lafayette	76.3	86.8	78.7	80.6
South Alabama	75.3	85.2	76.2	78.9
New Mexico St.	73.7	76.5	74.9	75.0
UL-Monroe	67.9	73.3	68.3	69.8
Texas St.	68.8	69.5	69.5	69.3
Sun Belt Averages	80.5	85.1	82.1	82.6

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Southeastern	113.9	111.1	112.9	112.6
2	Atlantic Coast	111.6	107.0	110.9	109.9
3	Pac-12	111.1	106.3	109.8	109.1
4	Big 12	108.3	109.6	107.7	108.5
5	Big Ten	107.6	106.1	106.7	106.8
6	American	98.0	97.9	98.2	98.0
7	Independents	96.5	97.9	97.0	97.1
8	Mountain West	91.6	93.4	92.3	92.4
9	Mid-American	89.7	92.9	90.7	91.1
10	Conference USA	84.5	88.5	85.7	86.3
11	Sunbelt	80.5	85.1	82.1	82.6

 

PiRate Ratings Spreads For August 26, 2016

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Hawaii	California	-27.6	-16.8	-25.2

Bowl Projections

We erred when issuing bowl projections in our conference previews, completely forgetting that the current Rose Bowl tie-in calls for the Pac-12 and Big Ten to supply the highest rated teams not in the playoffs, rather than using the old BCS formula rules.

 

Therefore, we have moved Ohio State into the Rose Bowl in lieu of Alabama, which in turn caused us to rearrange several other bowls once Alabama was moved to an SEC only bowl.

 

We are sorry for the error.  Here are the updated Bowl Projections.

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	vs.	Rice
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC	Arizona St.	vs.	Boise St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Army]	vs.	Troy
Camellia	MAC	SBC	North. Illinois	vs.	Ga. Southern
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	W. Kentucky	vs.	Arkansas St.
Miami Beach	AAC	MAC	Tulsa	vs.	West. Michigan
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	[Cent. Michigan]	vs.	Southern Miss.
Poinsettia	MWC	BYU	San Diego St.	vs.	BYU
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Bowling Green	vs.	UNLV
Bahamas	AAC/CUSA	MAC/CUSA	Memphis	vs.	Toledo
Armed Forces	Navy	Big 12	Navy	vs.	[Arizona]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	vs.	Appalachian St.
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Marshall	vs.	Air Force
St. Petersburg	AAC	ACC/ND	Houston	vs.	[Colorado]
Quick Lane	ACC/ND	Big Ten	Boston College	vs.	Wisconsin
Independence	SEC	ACC/ND	[UL-Lafayette]	vs.	Georgia Tech
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	Indiana	vs.	Middle Tenn.
Military	ACC/ND	AAC	N. Carolina St.	vs.	Temple
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	vs.	Oregon
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	[Maryland]	vs.	Utah
Pinstripe	ACC/ND	Big Ten	Virginia Tech	vs.	Northwestern
Russell Athletic	ACC/ND	Big 12	Louisville	vs.	TCU
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	vs.	Washington St.
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	vs.	Mississippi St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	vs.	Texas A&M
Belk	ACC/ND	SEC	Miami (Fla)	vs.	Florida
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	vs.	USC
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	West Virginia	vs.	Ole Miss
Sun	ACC/ND	Pac-12	Pittsburgh	vs.	UCLA
Arizona	CUSA/SBC	MWC/SBC	Louisiana Tech	vs.	Utah St.
Music City	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Nebraska	vs.	Auburn
Orange	ACC/ND	B10/SEC	Florida St.	vs.	Notre Dame
Citrus	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Iowa	vs.	Alabama
TaxSlayer	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	North Carolina	vs.	Arkansas
Peach	Semifinal	Semifinal	Tennessee	vs.	Stanford
Fiesta	Semifinal	Semifinal	Michigan	vs.	Oklahoma
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	vs.	Georgia
Cotton	At-Large	At-Large	Clemson	vs.	South Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Washington	vs.	Ohio St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	vs.	LSU
Nat’l Championship	Semifinal	Winners	Tennessee	vs.	Michigan

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections because the contracted conference will not have a bowl eligible team able to fill the slot.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings: College Football–November 12-16, 2013

Big Week Ahead

For the rabid fan of college football in general, this is the best week of the season to date.  There may not be as many marquee games as last week, but overall there are more meaningful games in this week’s schedule than any other week to this point.

 

Here is an abridged version of what we are calling key games.

 

AAC

Cincinnati (4-1/7-2) at Rutgers (2-2/5-3)

Quietly, Tommy Tuberville has the Bearcats in contention in the AAC.  While we do not believe UC can win the league, this game is crucial in bowl priorities.  The winner will have the advantage over the loser for the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium, while the loser could be looking at Birmingham.

 

Houston (4-1/7-2) at Louisville (4-1/8-1)

The horse is already out of the barn for these two teams, as they need Central Florida to lose twice to have a shot at winning the league’s BCS Bowl bid.  Still, this is an important game for possible second place in the AAC.  It should be an interesting game as well.

 

ACC

Georgia Tech (5-2/6-3) at Clemson (6-1/8-1)

The underdog is the team still in the race for the league title game.  Georgia Tech now finds itself in the lead in the ACC Coastal Division by a half-game over Virginia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets must win this game to have a chance to take the division title, and they need for Miami and Virginia Tech to lose or one of those teams to lose, while Duke wins out.  Ga. Tech loses in head-to-head tiebreakers with the Hurricanes and Hokies, but they hold the tiebreaker over Duke.

 

Clemson can win out at 11-1, and the best the Tigers can probably hope for is a return visit to Atlanta for the Chick-fil-A Bowl.  Florida St. has already clinched the Atlantic Division title.

 

Syracuse (3-2/5-4) at Florida St. (7-0/9-0)

Could this be a trap game for the Seminoles?  On paper, it looks like another possible 49-10 type of game.  At the extreme, most experts cannot see this game being any closer than 17-20 points.

 

But, and there is a big one here, Syracuse’s defense has come to life in a big way, and the players are really confident that they can stop anybody.  Yes, the great stands came against inferior offenses, but SU will go into this game believing it can force turnover on FSU and keep the Seminoles from scoring 35 points in the first 20 minutes of the game, like they have in recent weeks.

 

We believe this game will be important for more other reasons.  From this game, Alabama will learn a lot about what works and what does not against the ‘Nole offense.  Additionally, Syracuse will find some holes up front in the FSU defense, and these vulnerabilities will be exploitable by the Crimson Tide running game if these two powers meet for all the marbles.

 

Boston College (2-3/5-4) at North Carolina St. (0-6/3-6)

This is a big trap game for the Eagles, as the Wolfpack must go 3-0 to get back to a bowl.  Boston College could be in jeopardy of going to a bowl if they lose this game.  At 6-6, BC would lose out to almost any other 6-6 team in the ACC if there was just one bowl bid left to give out, because they have not travelled well to recent bowl games.  Also, if there is an at-large spot out there, the Eagles can forget being invited at 6-6, because there will be a surplus of 7-win teams needing at-large invitations.

 

North Carolina (3-3/4-5) at Pittsburgh (2-3/5-4)

This is purely and simply a bowl-elimination game.  The loser of this contest has a razor’s edge chance of earning a bowl invitation, even if they recover to finish 6-6.  The ACC is going to have more bowl-eligible teams than they have bowl allotments, and 6-6 may not be good enough to garner a bid.

 

North Carolina is this year’s version of Rice.  The Tar Heels were 1-5 and have no won three in a row with an excellent chance of running the table to 7-5 or finishing 6-6.

 

Pittsburgh now has a rather substantial win over Notre Dame on its resume, and a win here makes the Panthers a strong bowl-eligible 6-4 with a good chance for at least a 7-5 finish.  In the ACC, if either school is 7-5, that team will definitely go bowling.

 

It is not totally impossible that UNC could still sneak up and win the division.  If Duke wins its next two games, and Georgia Tech loses to Clemson this week, and Virginia Tech loses one more game, the Tar Heels will be playing Duke for the ACC Coastal Division flag.

 

Maryland (1-4/5-4) at Virginia Tech (4-2/7-3)

Virginia Tech recovered from the unexpected two-game losing streak to knock off Miami and throw the Coastal Division race wide open.  The Hokies have the best chance at winning the division, and they will do so at 6-2 if Duke loses a game.  A loss here probably eliminates them from the race.

 

As for Maryland, the Terps have tanked since September.  What looked like a for sure bowl team thanks to a very week schedule, UM now is on the verge of playing itself to bubble status and even possibly to a 5-7 record.  Coach Randy Edsall may have been a mistake hire in College Park, and the fans and media have turned against him.  A loss in this game coupled with a loss to Boston College or North Carolina St. probably keeps Maryland at home for the holidays and possibly sends Edsall on his way out of town.

 

Miami (3-2/7-2) at Duke (3-2/7-2)

Are you kiddin’ me?  Duke, the perennial doormat of the ACC, can be in the driver’s seat to win the Coastal Division title by beating Miami this week?  If the Blue Devils beat the Hurricanes, and Georgia Tech loses to Clemson, then that is indeed the case, because Duke will control its own destiny with remaining games against Wake Forest and North Carolina.

 

Miami still has a shot at recovering to meet Florida St. in a rematch in Charlotte.  The Hurricanes are hurting though, and we are not sure they have the manpower to recover fully.  The final game at Pittsburgh looks like a tough trap game, and the “U” must finish ahead of Virginia Tech in the standings to win the division.  We say, it will not happen.

 

 

Big Ten

Michigan St. (5-0/8-1) at Nebraska (4-1/7-2)

Two weeks ago, Nebraska looked dead in the Legends Division race after losing to Minnesota.  With a road game at Michigan, it was merely a formality that the Cornhuskers would be eliminated from the race.  However, the the Black Shirt Defense re-emerged to knock the Wolverines out of the race, and now this game should decide it all.

 

Michigan St. benefits from an extra week of preparation, and Coach Mark Dantonio should have his Spartans prepared to win on the road.  If Michigan St. continues to play with the same enthusiasm, confidence, and poise that it has in recent weeks, this Spartan team is more than capable of winning at Lincoln and knocking off Ohio St. in the Big Ten title game.

 

Michigan (2-3/6-3) at Northwestern (0-5/4-5)

Six weeks ago, this looked like a pivotal game in the Legends Division race.  Today it is pivotal for Northwestern.  The Wildcats began the season 4-0, and in game five, they were in contention to beat Ohio St. before some late shenanigans cost them the game.  NU never recovered, and the losing streak has extended to five straight.  If this one is the sixth, then you can stick a fork in their bowl chances.

 

Michigan is bowl eligible, but the Wolverines expected more.  Short of upsetting Ohio St., this can only be a major disappointment.  UM has not returned to the top like most fans expected they would under Brady Hoke.  The once unstoppable ground game is now laughable, and a loss Saturday might be enough for the fans to start calling for the hook on Hoke.

 

Baylor (5-0/8-0) vs. Texas Tech (4-3/7-3) at Arlington, TX

Baylor needs to jump three teams in the BCS standings to make it to the National Championship Game, but we cannot see that happening.  Chances are better that the Bears will lose a game rather than win out, and a loss could drop them all the way to the Cotton Bowl.

 

This game at one time might have given the Bears a chance to move ahead of a Stanford or Ohio St. in the standings, but Texas Tech has dropped three games in a row.  Still, this is a must-win for BU.  They need a USC upset of Stanford, an Ohio St. loss to Michigan St. in the Big Ten Championship Game, and then a monumental upset of either Florida St. or Alabama.  Assuming Baylor can run the table, the chances for the rest of the dominoes to fall are about 5%.

 

 

Big 12

Oklahoma St. (5-1/8-1) at Texas (6-0/7-2)

Texas was given up for dead after being embarrassed in consecutive games with Ole Miss and BYU.  However, these were not league games, and the Longhorns have righted the ship with a 6-0 league mark.

 

Oklahoma St. has not been a juggernaut like recent editions, but the Cowboys too have appeared to have gotten on track.

 

The winner of this game becomes Baylor’s competition for the conference championship.  The Bears must still play both teams, and the winner of this game will earn the Fiesta Bowl bid if they can also beat the Bears.

 

It appears to us that if either Fresno St. or Northern Illinois automatically qualifies for a BCS Bowl bid, the Big 12 will place just one team in BCS Bowls, and the runner-up will have to settle for some cotton.

 

 

Pac-12

Washington (3-3/6-3) at UCLA (4-2/7-2)

The Huskies are playing for bowl status, hoping to stay ahead of most of the Pac-12 South teams, and a win here keeps them in contention for the Holiday Bowl.

 

UCLA is in a heated battle with USC and Arizona St. for the South Division flag.  A loss here will be devastating.  The Bruins must still play both ASU and USC.  All of a sudden, Rose Bowl aspirations look so much easier than they did a week ago.

 

Stanford (6-1/8-1) at USC (4-2/7-3)

Any football fan can see that the Cardinal are riding into an ambush in a major trap game.  Southern Cal is loose with nothing to lose, while Stanford must win to stay ahead of Oregon in the North Division.

 

USC is still very much alive in the Pac-12 South race.  The Trojans are 4-1 since Lane Kiffin was let go, and that one loss was a narrow one at Notre Dame.  If USC wins this game, interim coach Ed Orgeron might actually move to the top of the list in the search for the next full-time coach.  Coach O can recruit with the best of them, so it isn’t impossible.

 

Of course, a loss here coupled with a loss to UCLA, and Coach O will be on the go.

 

Oregon St. (4-2/6-3) at Arizona St. (5-1/7-2)

Arizona St. narrowly escaped the upset bug at Utah Saturday night, while Oregon St. benefitted by having a week off to try to regroup.  This leads to this game becoming much tighter and more competitive.

 

Arizona St. controls its own destiny as the South Division leader, but the Sun Devils have tough games left to play at UCLA and at home against rival Arizona.  Of course, ASU holds the tiebreaker over USC if the two finish tied.  Lane Kiffin can tell you that.

 

SEC

Georgia (4-2/6-3) at Auburn (5-1/9-1)

My how the season has shifted!  Two months ago, this game looked like a pivotal November contest for Georgia.  Now, it is the other way around.  Auburn has a decent shot at earning a BCS Bowl.  If the Tigers win this week and then give Alabama a competitive game, Auburn looks like a shoo-in for either the Sugar or Orange Bowl, assuming Alabama runs the table.

 

Georgia is trying to avoid having to play in December during bowl season.  A win on the plains will give them a major leg up for the Gator, Outback, or Cotton Bowl.  A loss puts the Bulldogs in danger of falling below the Gator Bowl.  Since Clemson is likely to be invited to Atlanta, Georgia will be skipped for the Chick-fil-A bowl and fall all the way to Nashville if they fail to beat Georgia Tech.

 

Florida (3-4/4-5) at South Carolina (5-2/7-2)

This is a crucial game for both teams.  South Carolina becomes the leader in the clubhouse with a win in this conference finale.  The Gamecocks are the only impediment in Missouri’s way to the East Division title.  If the two finish tied for first, USC wins the tiebreaker.  Even if Missouri wins out, South Carolina needs a 10-2 finish to have a shot at the Capital One or Cotton Bowl.

 

As for Florida, this is the end of the road if they lose.  The Gators must win this week to have a shot at bowl eligibility.  They could upset Florida St. in the finale.  That “could” is not much different than saying you “could” win the Megamillions lottery this week.

 

If The Gators finish 5-7, Coach Will Muschamp will need a lot of generosity to retain his job in a state where Florida St., Miami, and Central Florida are improving and getting some great in-state recruits.

 

MAC

Ohio (3-2/6-3) at Bowling Green (4-1/6-3)

BGU remains alive in the MAC East hunt, while only a miracle could give Ohio the division title.  This game is more important in bowl implications.  The MAC has three guaranteed bowl bids, but there will be as many as seven bowl eligible teams.  The loser of this game more than likely falls out of the race for the three guaranteed spots and has to begin sweating it as an at-large candidate

 

Buffalo (5-0/7-2) at Toledo (4-1/6-3)

This could be the first of two times these teams face off.  Buffalo is in the driver’s seat in the MAC East, and they Bulls host Bowling Green in a couple weeks.  A BU win in this game basically eliminates Ohio from the MAC East race.

 

Toledo is the third place team in the MAC West as of today, but a win here allows the rockets to host Northern Illinois with the division title up for grabs.  TU is tough to beat at the glass bowl, and they are getting better every week.  This should be a great one to watch midweek.

 

Ball St. (6-0/9-1) at Northern Illinois (5-0/9-0)

Make no bones about it, this is the key MAC game of the year.  The winner goes into undisputed first place in the West, and if the Huskies win, they stay alive for a second consecutive BCS Bowl invitation.

 

These two teams have enough talent to beat teams like Georgia, Texas Tech, Michigan, and Arizona this year, but they are not in the class of teams like Auburn, Michigan St., Oklahoma St., and Stanford.

 

If Ball St. wins, the Cardinals help out the big conferences while virtually assuring that they will be the MAC West champs.  You want to watch this one for sure.

 

 

MWC

Fresno St. has a week off, and thus, there are no real key games in the league.  The Bulldogs wiped Wyoming off the field in Laramie after spotting the Cowboys a 10-0 lead.  FSU closes with New Mexico at home and San Jose St. on the road, two games that should not be much of a challenge.  A possible rematch with Boise St. in the conference championship appears to be the only hurdle this team needs to topple before punching a ticket to the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl.

 

CUSA

This is a calm week for this league.  In the east, East Carolina gets an easy one against UAB, and Marshall plays at a wounded Tulsa team headed nowhere.

 

In the West, North Texas is in the driver’s seat.  The Mean Green have an off week before hosting UTSA and finishing at Tulsa.  Coach Dan McCarney’s name will be bantered about when bigger schools look to fill coaching vacancies next month.

 

SBC

UL-Lafayette has been close in recent years, but 2013 looks like the year they win the SBC title.  The Ragin’ Cajuns should run roughshod over winless Georgia St. this week, and then they will have an extra week to prepare for the conference clincher when they host UL-Monroe on November 30.

 

Texas St. (2-2/6-3) at Arkansas St. (3-1/5-4)

This game serves as a sort of playoff game for the league’s second bowl bid.  Texas St. is already bowl eligible, but they need this win to guarantee that second bid.  The Bobcats could still get an at-large invitation as long as they win one more game.

 

Arkansas St, still has some work to do to guarantee a bowl bid.  A win here coupled with a win over what should be 0-10 Georgia St. next week, will do the trick.  It really does not matter if ASU finished behind Western Kentucky, because the Hilltoppers will most likely be shunned when the league places its teams in bowls.  WKU is leaving the league, and the SBC punished an eight-win Middle Tennessee team last year for the same reason.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular
1	Alabama	137.6
2	Oregon	134.0
3	Florida St.	133.6
4	Baylor	129.7
5	Ohio St.	128.2
6	Stanford	127.8
7	Missouri	123.8
8	Arizona St.	123.4
9	L S U	122.6
10	Texas A&M	121.5
11	Oklahoma St.	121.4
12	Washington	121.0
13	Wisconsin	120.6
14	Clemson	120.2
15	South Carolina	119.6
16	Auburn	119.0
17	Michigan St.	118.9
18	Ole Miss	118.9
19	Texas	118.0
20	U C L A	117.3
21	U S C	116.6
22	Oregon St.	116.0
23	Georgia	115.1
24	Louisville	114.8
25	Oklahoma	114.7
26	Kansas St.	114.6
27	B Y U	114.6
28	Arizona	114.5
29	Miami	113.1
30	Nebraska	112.9
31	Georgia Tech	112.1
32	Florida	111.9
33	Michigan	111.7
34	Notre Dame	110.7
35	Virginia Tech	109.7
36	Utah	109.0
37	Central Florida	108.6
38	Northwestern	108.6
39	Texas Tech	108.3
40	Vanderbilt	107.9
41	Mississippi St.	107.1
42	Iowa	106.8
43	Fresno St.	106.7
44	North Carolina	106.5
45	Minnesota	106.4
46	T C U	106.1
47	Boise St.	105.2
48	Utah St.	105.1
49	Indiana	104.7
50	East Carolina	104.5
51	Penn St.	104.1
52	Cincinnati	103.9
53	Northern Illinois	103.3
54	West Virginia	103.0
55	Duke	102.6
56	Tennessee	102.2
57	Houston	102.0
58	Washington St.	101.9
59	Ball St.	101.2
60	Bowling Green	101.2
61	Boston College	101.1
62	Syracuse	100.9
63	Pittsburgh	100.9
64	Buffalo	100.5
65	Toledo	100.4
66	Marshall	100.4
67	North Texas	99.7
68	Kentucky	98.5
69	Wake Forest	98.3
70	Illinois	97.0
71	Colorado St.	96.3
72	Rice	96.2
73	Rutgers	95.9
74	Arkansas	95.9
75	San Jose St.	95.8
76	Louisiana–Lafayette	95.4
77	Navy	95.3
78	Maryland	95.2
79	S M U	94.8
80	San Diego St.	93.7
81	Iowa St.	93.3
82	Arkansas St.	93.0
83	Ohio	92.6
84	Kansas	92.1
85	California	91.6
86	North Carolina St.	91.4
87	U T S A	90.4
88	Memphis	89.9
89	Western Kentucky	89.6
90	Virginia	89.1
91	Florida Atlantic	89.0
92	Middle Tennessee	88.4
93	South Florida	87.8
94	Colorado	87.8
95	Tulane	87.5
96	South Alabama	87.4
97	U N L V	87.2
98	Purdue	87.2
99	Temple	87.1
100	Tulsa	86.2
101	Louisiana–Monroe	86.1
102	Kent St.	86.0
103	Nevada	85.9
104	Wyoming	85.6
105	Connecticut	83.8
106	Troy	83.3
107	Akron	83.3
108	Hawaii	83.0
109	Central Michigan	82.7
110	Texas St.	82.3
111	Army	82.0
112	Louisiana Tech	81.3
113	New Mexico	81.3
114	U A B	79.3
115	Air Force	79.3
116	U T E P	78.1
117	Western Michigan	75.3
118	New Mexico St.	72.7
119	Massachusetts	72.3
120	Miami (O)	71.6
121	Eastern Michigan	71.1
122	Idaho	68.1
123	Southern Miss.	67.6
124	Florida Int’l	66.9
125	Georgia St.	63.3

 

 

PiRate Mean
1	Florida St.	137.8
2	Alabama	134.1
3	Oregon	130.5
4	Ohio St.	127.2
5	Arizona St.	123.0
6	Baylor	122.8
7	Missouri	122.0
8	Clemson	121.5
9	Wisconsin	121.3
10	Stanford	120.6
11	L S U	120.4
12	Michigan St.	119.6
13	Texas A&M	119.3
14	Auburn	118.7
15	South Carolina	117.1
16	Washington	117.1
17	Ole Miss	115.9
18	Miami	114.3
19	Louisville	113.6
20	U S C	113.5
21	B Y U	113.4
22	Oklahoma St.	113.2
23	U C L A	112.5
24	Georgia	112.5
25	Central Florida	111.9
26	Michigan	111.7
27	Georgia Tech	111.6
28	Nebraska	111.2
29	Arizona	110.8
30	Virginia Tech	110.2
31	Texas	109.9
32	Oklahoma	109.9
33	Houston	109.4
34	Florida	108.9
35	Notre Dame	108.6
36	North Carolina	108.4
37	Oregon St.	108.1
38	Kansas St.	107.4
39	Utah	106.8
40	Minnesota	106.6
41	Indiana	106.6
42	Fresno St.	106.4
43	East Carolina	106.3
44	Northwestern	106.2
45	Iowa	106.0
46	Northern Illinois	105.6
47	Vanderbilt	105.4
48	Penn St.	104.9
49	Ball St.	104.8
50	Mississippi St.	104.4
51	Marshall	103.9
52	Duke	103.8
53	Cincinnati	103.8
54	Texas Tech	103.8
55	Utah St.	103.3
56	Buffalo	102.9
57	North Texas	102.4
58	Toledo	102.3
59	Boise St.	101.9
60	Bowling Green	101.8
61	Boston College	101.7
62	Washington St.	101.1
63	Tennessee	101.1
64	Wake Forest	101.1
65	Syracuse	100.7
66	T C U	100.5
67	Pittsburgh	99.9
68	Rutgers	98.9
69	Rice	98.8
70	Illinois	98.8
71	Maryland	98.7
72	Arkansas	98.3
73	Kentucky	98.1
74	Louisiana–Lafayette	96.9
75	Navy	96.8
76	S M U	96.5
77	Colorado St.	96.3
78	Ohio	96.2
79	West Virginia	96.1
80	Memphis	95.4
81	North Carolina St.	95.3
82	San Jose St.	93.4
83	Middle Tennessee	93.2
84	San Diego St.	92.7
85	U T S A	92.4
86	Western Kentucky	91.9
87	Arkansas St.	91.2
88	Tulane	90.9
89	Virginia	90.8
90	Florida Atlantic	90.5
91	South Alabama	90.5
92	U N L V	88.8
93	Colorado	88.6
94	Temple	88.5
95	Kent St.	88.5
96	Kansas	87.9
97	Texas St.	87.9
98	Nevada	87.5
99	Army	87.5
100	California	87.3
101	Akron	87.0
102	Louisiana–Monroe	86.9
103	Wyoming	86.7
104	Troy	85.9
105	Central Michigan	85.4
106	Tulsa	85.4
107	Iowa St.	85.2
108	New Mexico	85.0
109	Purdue	84.7
110	South Florida	84.4
111	Louisiana Tech	83.6
112	Hawaii	83.2
113	Air Force	82.7
114	U A B	80.4
115	Connecticut	80.1
116	U T E P	79.9
117	Massachusetts	77.3
118	Western Michigan	76.8
119	New Mexico St.	75.8
120	Miami (O)	74.9
121	Eastern Michigan	73.7
122	Idaho	72.0
123	Florida Int’l	69.2
124	Georgia St.	69.2
125	Southern Miss.	67.6

 

 

PiRate Bias
1	Alabama	138.9
2	Florida St.	135.6
3	Oregon	134.9
4	Baylor	131.6
5	Ohio St.	128.4
6	Stanford	127.3
7	Arizona St.	123.3
8	Missouri	123.2
9	L S U	123.1
10	Wisconsin	121.7
11	Oklahoma St.	121.4
12	Texas A&M	121.3
13	Clemson	121.3
14	Washington	120.8
15	Auburn	119.1
16	South Carolina	118.7
17	Michigan St.	118.3
18	Ole Miss	118.2
19	Texas	116.9
20	U S C	116.5
21	U C L A	115.9
22	B Y U	115.6
23	Louisville	115.5
24	Georgia	114.6
25	Kansas St.	114.1
26	Oklahoma	114.0
27	Oregon St.	114.0
28	Miami	113.2
29	Arizona	112.8
30	Georgia Tech	112.2
31	Nebraska	111.9
32	Michigan	110.7
33	Florida	110.5
34	Central Florida	109.8
35	Virginia Tech	109.4
36	Notre Dame	109.0
37	Utah	108.8
38	Northwestern	108.4
39	Texas Tech	107.7
40	North Carolina	107.4
41	Vanderbilt	107.3
42	Iowa	107.1
43	Mississippi St.	106.9
44	Boise St.	106.6
45	Utah St.	106.6
46	Minnesota	106.4
47	Fresno St.	106.3
48	T C U	105.3
49	East Carolina	104.9
50	Indiana	104.3
51	Northern Illinois	103.9
52	Cincinnati	103.5
53	Houston	103.4
54	Penn St.	103.0
55	Washington St.	102.6
56	Ball St.	102.4
57	West Virginia	102.3
58	Duke	102.1
59	Buffalo	102.1
60	Boston College	102.0
61	Marshall	101.7
62	Bowling Green	101.7
63	Toledo	101.4
64	Tennessee	101.1
65	Pittsburgh	101.0
66	North Texas	100.9
67	Syracuse	100.3
68	Kentucky	99.1
69	Wake Forest	98.8
70	Colorado St.	97.2
71	Rice	96.5
72	Illinois	96.5
73	Maryland	96.3
74	San Jose St.	96.2
75	Rutgers	96.0
76	Louisiana–Lafayette	95.9
77	Navy	95.4
78	Arkansas	94.7
79	San Diego St.	94.2
80	S M U	94.1
81	Ohio	93.2
82	Arkansas St.	92.8
83	North Carolina St.	92.1
84	Iowa St.	92.1
85	Kansas	91.4
86	Memphis	90.4
87	U T S A	90.2
88	California	90.0
89	Florida Atlantic	89.8
90	Western Kentucky	89.7
91	Middle Tennessee	89.4
92	Virginia	89.1
93	South Alabama	88.1
94	Tulane	87.9
95	U N L V	87.8
96	South Florida	87.5
97	Temple	86.8
98	Kent St.	86.4
99	Wyoming	86.3
100	Louisiana–Monroe	86.1
101	Nevada	85.9
102	Colorado	85.9
103	Tulsa	85.2
104	Purdue	84.7
105	Troy	84.3
106	Akron	84.1
107	Hawaii	83.6
108	Connecticut	83.4
109	Army	83.4
110	Texas St.	82.8
111	Central Michigan	82.2
112	New Mexico	81.9
113	Louisiana Tech	81.0
114	Air Force	79.1
115	U A B	78.6
116	U T E P	76.8
117	Western Michigan	75.3
118	New Mexico St.	72.6
119	Massachusetts	72.0
120	Eastern Michigan	70.0
121	Miami (O)	70.0
122	Idaho	67.9
123	Florida Int’l	67.0
124	Southern Miss.	66.8
125	Georgia St.	64.4

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Louisville	4-1	8-1	114.8	113.6	115.5
Central Florida	4-0	7-1	108.6	111.9	109.8
Cincinnati	4-1	7-2	103.9	103.8	103.5
Houston	4-1	7-2	102.0	109.4	103.4
Rutgers	2-2	5-3	95.9	98.9	96.0
S M U	2-2	3-5	94.8	96.5	94.1
Memphis	0-4	2-6	89.9	95.4	90.4
South Florida	2-2	2-6	87.8	84.4	87.5
Temple	0-5	1-8	87.1	88.5	86.8
Connecticut	0-4	0-8	83.8	80.1	83.4
League Averages			96.9	98.3	97.0

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida St.	7-0	9-0	133.6	137.8	135.6
Clemson	6-1	8-1	120.2	121.5	121.3
Boston College	2-3	5-4	101.1	101.7	102.0
Syracuse	3-2	5-4	100.9	100.7	100.3
Wake Forest	2-5	4-6	98.3	101.1	98.8
Maryland	1-4	5-4	95.2	98.7	96.3
North Carolina St.	0-6	3-6	91.4	95.3	92.1
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami	3-2	7-2	113.1	114.3	113.2
Georgia Tech	5-2	6-3	112.1	111.6	112.2
Virginia Tech	4-2	7-3	109.7	110.2	109.4
North Carolina	3-3	4-5	106.5	108.4	107.4
Duke	3-2	7-2	102.6	103.8	102.1
Pittsburgh	2-3	5-4	100.9	99.9	101.0
Virginia	0-6	2-8	89.1	90.8	89.1
League Averages			105.3	106.8	105.8

 

 

Big 12 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Baylor	5-0	8-0	129.7	122.8	131.6
Oklahoma St.	5-1	8-1	121.4	113.2	121.4
Texas	6-0	7-2	118.0	109.9	116.9
Oklahoma	4-2	7-2	114.7	109.9	114.0
Kansas St.	3-3	5-4	114.6	107.4	114.1
Texas Tech	4-3	7-3	108.3	103.8	107.7
T C U	2-5	4-6	106.1	100.5	105.3
West Virginia	2-5	4-6	103.0	96.1	102.3
Iowa St.	0-6	1-8	93.3	85.2	92.1
Kansas	0-6	2-7	92.1	87.9	91.4
League Averages			110.1	103.7	109.7

 

 

Big Ten Conference
Leaders Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio St.	5-0	9-0	128.2	127.2	128.4
Wisconsin	4-1	7-2	120.6	121.3	121.7
Indiana	2-3	4-5	104.7	106.6	104.3
Penn St.	2-3	5-4	104.1	104.9	103.0
Illinois	0-5	3-6	97.0	98.8	96.5
Purdue	0-5	1-8	87.2	84.7	84.7
Legends Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Michigan St.	5-0	8-1	118.9	119.6	118.3
Nebraska	4-1	7-2	112.9	111.2	111.9
Michigan	2-3	6-3	111.7	111.7	110.7
Northwestern	0-5	4-5	108.6	106.2	108.4
Iowa	3-3	6-4	106.8	106.0	107.1
Minnesota	4-2	8-2	106.4	106.6	106.4
League Averages			108.9	108.7	108.5

 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
East Carolina	5-1	7-2	104.5	106.3	104.9
Marshall	4-1	6-3	100.4	103.9	101.7
Florida Atlantic	2-4	3-6	89.0	90.5	89.8
Middle Tennessee	4-2	6-4	88.4	93.2	89.4
U A B	1-4	2-7	79.3	80.4	78.6
Southern Miss.	0-5	0-9	67.6	67.6	66.8
Florida Int’l	1-4	1-8	66.9	69.2	67.0
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Texas	5-1	7-3	99.7	102.4	100.9
Rice	4-1	6-3	96.2	98.8	96.5
U T S A	4-2	5-5	90.4	92.4	90.2
Tulane	4-2	6-4	87.5	90.9	87.9
Tulsa	1-4	2-7	86.2	85.4	85.2
Louisiana Tech	3-2	4-5	81.3	83.6	81.0
U T E P	0-5	1-8	78.1	79.9	76.8
League Averages			86.8	88.9	86.9

 

 

Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
B Y U		6-3	114.6	113.4	115.6
Notre Dame		7-3	110.7	108.6	109.0
Navy		5-4	95.3	96.8	95.4
Army		3-7	82.0	87.5	83.4
Idaho		1-9	68.1	72.0	67.9
New Mexico St.		1-9	72.7	75.8	72.6
Independent Avg’s.			90.6	92.4	90.7

 

 

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Bowling Green	4-1	6-3	101.2	101.8	101.7
Buffalo	5-0	7-2	100.5	102.9	102.1
Ohio	3-2	6-3	92.6	96.2	93.2
Kent St.	1-5	2-8	86.0	88.5	86.4
Akron	2-4	3-7	83.3	87.0	84.1
Massachusetts	1-4	1-8	72.3	77.3	72.0
Miami (O)	0-5	0-9	71.6	74.9	70.0
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Northern Illinois	5-0	9-0	103.3	105.6	103.9
Ball St.	6-0	9-1	101.2	104.8	102.4
Toledo	4-1	6-3	100.4	102.3	101.4
Central Michigan	2-3	3-6	82.7	85.4	82.2
Western Michigan	1-5	1-9	75.3	76.8	75.3
Eastern Michigan	1-5	2-8	71.1	73.7	70.0
League Averages			87.8	90.6	88.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boise St.	4-1	6-3	105.2	101.9	106.6
Utah St.	5-1	6-4	105.1	103.3	106.6
Colorado St.	3-2	5-5	96.3	96.3	97.2
Wyoming	2-3	4-5	85.6	86.7	86.3
New Mexico	1-4	3-6	81.3	85.0	81.9
Air Force	0-6	2-8	79.3	82.7	79.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Fresno St.	6-0	9-0	106.7	106.4	106.3
San Jose St.	4-2	5-4	95.8	93.4	96.2
San Diego St.	4-1	5-4	93.7	92.7	94.2
U N L V	3-3	5-5	87.2	88.8	87.8
Nevada	2-5	3-7	85.9	87.5	85.9
Hawaii	0-6	0-9	83.0	83.2	83.6
League Averages			83.3	83.8	83.8

 

 

Pacific 12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oregon	5-1	8-1	134.0	130.5	134.9
Stanford	6-1	8-1	127.8	120.6	127.3
Washington	3-3	6-3	121.0	117.1	120.8
Oregon St.	4-2	6-3	116.0	108.1	114.0
Washington St.	2-4	4-5	101.9	101.1	102.6
California	0-7	1-9	91.6	87.3	90.0
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arizona St.	5-1	7-2	123.4	123.0	123.3
U C L A	4-2	7-2	117.3	112.5	115.9
U S C	4-2	7-3	116.6	113.5	116.5
Arizona	3-3	6-3	114.5	110.8	112.8
Utah	1-5	4-5	109.0	106.8	108.8
Colorado	0-6	3-6	87.8	88.6	85.9
League Averages			113.4	110.0	112.7

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Missouri	5-1	9-1	123.8	122.0	123.2
South Carolina	5-2	7-2	119.6	117.1	118.7
Georgia	4-2	6-3	115.1	112.5	114.6
Florida	3-4	4-5	111.9	108.9	110.5
Vanderbilt	2-4	5-4	107.9	105.4	107.3
Tennessee	1-5	4-6	102.2	101.1	101.1
Kentucky	0-5	2-7	98.5	98.1	99.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Alabama	6-0	9-0	137.6	134.1	138.9
L S U	3-3	7-3	122.6	120.4	123.1
Texas A&M	4-2	8-2	121.5	119.3	121.3
Auburn	5-1	9-1	119.0	118.7	119.1
Ole Miss	3-3	6-3	118.9	115.9	118.2
Mississippi St.	1-4	4-5	107.1	104.4	106.9
Arkansas	0-6	3-7	95.9	98.3	94.7
League Averages			114.4	112.6	114.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Louisiana–Lafayette	4-0	7-2	95.4	96.9	95.9
Arkansas St.	3-1	5-4	93.0	91.2	92.8
Western Kentucky	2-3	6-4	89.6	91.9	89.7
South Alabama	1-3	3-5	87.4	90.5	88.1
Louisiana–Monroe	3-2	5-5	86.1	86.9	86.1
Troy	3-3	5-5	83.3	85.9	84.3
Texas St.	2-2	6-3	82.3	87.9	82.8
Georgia St.	0-4	0-9	63.3	69.2	64.4
League Averages			85.1	87.6	85.5

 

 

Transitioning Teams
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Old Dominion		7-3	85.2	86.7	91.5
Georgia Southern		5-3	82.6	85.0	89.7
Appalachian St.		1-8	73.1	72.0	79.8
Charlotte		4-6	57.2	61.8	64.3
Not figured in regular averages to 100			74.5	76.4	81.3

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Bowling Green	Ohio	10.6	7.6	10.5
Toledo	Buffalo	2.9	2.4	2.3
Northern Illinois	Ball St.	5.1	3.8	4.5
Kent St.	Miami (O)	16.4	15.6	18.4
Clemson	Georgia Tech	11.1	12.9	12.1
Tulsa	Marshall	-11.2	-15.5	-13.5
U C L A	Washington	-0.7	-1.6	-1.9
Mississippi St.	Alabama	-27.5	-26.7	-29.0
Auburn	Georgia	6.9	9.2	7.5
South Carolina	Florida	10.7	11.2	11.2
Illinois	Ohio St.	-28.2	-25.4	-28.9
Oklahoma	Iowa St.	24.4	27.7	24.9
Temple	Central Florida	-19.0	-20.9	-20.5
Wisconsin	Indiana	18.9	17.7	20.4
Ole Miss	Troy	38.6	33.0	36.9
Rutgers	Cincinnati	-5.0	-1.9	-4.5
Penn St.	Purdue	19.9	23.2	21.3
Kansas	West Virginia	-7.9	-5.2	-7.9
Western Michigan	Central Michigan	-5.4	-6.6	-4.9
Vanderbilt	Kentucky	11.4	9.3	10.2
Boston College	North Carolina St.	12.7	9.4	12.9
Pittsburgh	North Carolina	-2.6	-5.5	-3.4
Virginia Tech	Maryland	17.5	14.5	16.1
Southern Miss.	Florida Atlantic	-18.9	-20.4	-20.5
Massachusetts	Akron	-9.0	-7.7	-10.1
Arizona	Washington St.	15.6	12.7	13.2
East Carolina	U A B	28.2	28.9	29.3
Georgia St.	UL-Lafayette	-30.1	-25.7	-29.5
S M U	Connecticut	14.0	19.4	13.7
Florida St.	Syracuse	35.7	40.1	38.3
Duke	Miami	-7.5	-7.5	-8.1
Texas	Oklahoma St.	-0.4	-0.3	-1.5
Nebraska	Michigan St.	-3.0	-5.4	-3.4
Northwestern	Michigan	-0.1	-2.5	0.7
Kansas St.	T C U	11.5	9.9	11.8
Navy	South Alabama	10.9	9.3	10.3
Oregon	Utah	28.0	26.7	29.1
Colorado	California	-0.8	4.3	-1.1
Baylor (Arlington,TX)	Texas Tech	21.4	19.0	23.9
Louisville	Houston	15.8	7.2	15.1
South Florida	Memphis	0.9	-8.0	0.1
New Mexico	Colorado St.	-12.0	-8.3	-12.3
Rice	Louisiana Tech	17.9	18.2	18.5
Arkansas St.	Texas St.	13.7	6.3	13.0
U S C	Stanford	-8.2	-4.1	-7.8
U T E P	Florida Int’l	14.2	13.7	12.8
Arizona St.	Oregon St.	10.4	17.9	12.3
Boise St.	Wyoming	22.6	18.2	23.3
Hawaii	San Diego St.	-6.7	-5.5	-6.6
Nevada	San Jose St.	-6.9	-2.9	-7.3

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Rating Bowl Projections

GAME	Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	Colorado St.	vs.	Oregon St.
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas	Boise St.	vs.	Washington
Famous Idaho Potato	U N L V	vs.	Ball St.
New Orleans	UL-Lafayette	vs.	Tulane
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s	Western Kentucky *	vs.	Marshall
Hawai’i	San Jose St.	vs.	Middle Tennessee
Little Caesars Pizza	Toledo	vs.	Texas St. *
Poinsettia	Utah St.	vs.	Bowling Green *
Military Bowl	Syracuse	vs.	East Carolina
Texas	Iowa	vs.	Texas Tech
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl	Arizona	vs.	B Y U #
Pinstripe	Rutgers	vs.	West Virginia
Belk	Houston	vs.	North Carolina
Russell Athletic	Louisville	vs.	Virginia Tech
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl	Oklahoma	vs.	Michigan
Armed Forces	San Diego St.	vs.	Navy
Music City	Georgia Tech	vs.	Ole Miss
Alamo	Texas	vs.	U S C
Holiday	Kansas St.	vs.	U C L A
AdvoCare V100 Bowl	Ohio *	vs.	Duke
Sun	Miami	vs.	Arizona St.
Liberty	Vanderbilt	vs.	North Texas
Chick-fil-A	Clemson	vs.	L S U
Heart Of Dallas	Rice	vs.	Notre Dame *
Gator	Minnesota	vs.	Georgia
Outback	South Carolina	vs.	Nebraska
Capital One	Wisconsin	vs.	Missouri
Rose	Michigan St.	vs.	Stanford
Fiesta	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Central Florida
Sugar	Ohio St.	vs.	Fresno St.
Cotton	Texas A&M	vs.	Baylor
Orange	Auburn	vs.	Oregon
BBVA Compass Bowl	Cincinnati	vs.	Maryland *
GoDaddy.com	Arkansas St.	vs.	Northern Illinois
BCS Championship	Alabama	vs.	Florida St.
* At-Large Selection
# Already Accepted Bid

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football: October 30-November 2, 2013

Bowl Picture Starting To Get Clearer

As of today, October 28, 2013, the PiRate Ratings staff believes that about 76 or 77 teams will become bowl eligible for the 70 bowl spots.  In this list, it looks like a strong possibility that every seven-win team eligible for postseason play will earn a bowl bid, as six or seven six-win teams will miss out.

 

Here is our breakdown by conference on the bowl projections.

 

AAC: 6 Bowl Tie-ins – 5 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

With SMU, South Florida, and Memphis failing to win close crucial games this year, we believe this new league will come up one team short.

 

Central Florida has one major roadblock to overcome, but that game against Houston is at home.  If Houston upsets UCF, the Cougars will still have to win at Louisville to claim the automatic BCS berth.  We’re going with the Knights to win out.

 

Louisville could be 11-1 and do no better than the Russell Athletic Bowl.

 

1. BCS (Sugar): Central Florida

2. Russell Athletic: Louisville

3. Belk: Houston

4. Pinstripe: Rutgers (Scarlet Knights back to Yankee Stadium for 2^nd time)

5. BBVA Compass: Cincinnati (check SEC opponent for human interest)

6. Beef O’Brady’s: No Team Available

 

ACC: 8 Bowl Tie-ins (plus a secondary 9^th bid) – 9 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Florida St. and Miami will most likely face off twice this year.  One of the rivals must win both games to have a chance to advance to the BCS National Championship Game, and still they will need help.

 

Clemson holds onto hopes for a BCS at-large bid, but if Miami and Florida St. split, the Tigers will do no better than Atlanta on New Year’s Eve.

 

Duke is bowl eligible for a second consecutive year.  Check out the unique bowl possibility we have for David Cutcliffe’s team when you read the SEC opponent scheduled to face the Blue Devils in our bowl projection.

 

1. BCS (Orange): Florida St.

2. Chick-fil-A: Clemson

3. Russell Athletic: Miami

4. Sun: Virginia Tech

5. Belk: Maryland

6. Music City: Duke

7. Advocare V100: Georgia Tech

8. Military: North Carolina (great comeback to 6-6)

Also Bowl Eligible: Syracuse at 6-6

 

Big 12: 7 Bowl Tie-Ins – 6 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Baylor becomes the heavy favorite now that Texas Tech has lost to Oklahoma, but Tech, OU, and Texas are still alive, and if Oklahoma St. can find a quarterback who can complete anything more than a screen pass, the Cowboys are still in the mix.

 

Until somebody knocks off Baylor, we will keep the Bears in the top spot.  As for Oklahoma, if the Sooners finish 10-2, we believe they will trump any other 10-2 team from other conferences except for Stanford and the number two SEC team.  A 10-2 Texas Tech team does not look as fortunate.

 

West Virginia and TCU have sunk below the bowl eligible line, and Kansas and Iowa St. are going nowhere, so if this league sends two teams to BCS bowls, there will be two bowl spots left unfilled for at-large teams elsewhere.

 

1. BCS (Fiesta): Baylor

2. BCS (Orange): Oklahoma

3. Cotton: Texas

4. Alamo: Texas Tech

5. Buffalo Wild Wings: Oklahoma St.

6. Holiday: Kansas St.

7. Texas: No Team Available

8. Pinstripe: No Team Available

 

Big Ten: 8 Bowl Tie-ins – 8 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Ohio St. can win out by an average of 45-0, and the Buckeyes will not make it to the BCS National Championship Game unless two of the powers ahead of them lose.  The Buckeyes could extend their winning streak to 26 games without having the opportunity to compete for a national championship.  Penn St. went 11-0 in 1968 and in 1969 and was in the same boat.

 

A lot of our fellow bowl projectionists have a second Big Ten team in the BCS, but we believe cannibalism from within the league will take the possible number two teams out of the picture.  Our best bet to sneak into the BCS as a league runner-up is Michigan St.  This league needs both Fresno St. and Northern Illinois to lose.

 

1. BCS (Rose): Ohio St.

2. Capital One: Michigan St.

3. Outback: Wisconsin

4. Gator: Michigan

5. Buffalo Wild Wings: Nebraska

6. Texas: Iowa

7. Heart of Dallas: Minnesota

8. Little Caesar’s Pizza: Indiana (first bid in 6 years and they may not like it so much)

 

C U S A: 6 Bowl Tie-ins – 6 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

This league is down quite a lot since most of the best teams defected to the AAC, and Tulsa is headed to a losing record.  It makes for a wide open race in both divisions.

 

In the East, the Marshall-East Carolina winner will most likely win the division.  The West is a lot more uncertain.  Tulane, Rice, and North Texas are in a hot race, and it is possible that all three could end up 7-1 in the league.

 

1. Liberty: Tulane

2. Heart of Dallas: Rice

3. Military: Marshall

4. Beef O’Brady’s: East Carolina

5. Hawaii: North Texas

6. New Orleans: Middle Tennessee

 

Independents: 3 Bowl Tie-ins + Notre Dame – 3 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Notre Dame does not appear to be in line for BCS bowl qualification, so the Fighting Irish will have to claim an at-large bid.

 

BYU and Navy have automatic tie-ins and will earn those invitations.  Army has an automatic tie-in but will not earn that invitation.

 

1. At-large (Pinstripe): Notre Dame (perfect spot for the Irish—Yankee Stadium

2. Armed Forces: Navy

3. Kraft Fight Hunger: B Y U

4. Poinsettia: No team (Army not bowl eligible)

 

M A C: 3 Bowl Tie-ins – 7 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Northern Illinois sits just one spot behind Fresno St. in the BCS rankings, and it is debatable whether wins over Ball St., Toledo, and the East Division title winner will be enough to prepare the Huskies over a Fresno St. team that wins out.

 

We are going to make an assumption that if Northern Illinois finishes 13-0 or 12-1, the MAC may try to shop the Huskies to a larger bowl in a backroom deal.  There will be more than enough league teams to fill the regular three bowl spots, and freeing NIU from the league’s top bowl bid might allow another bowl to end up with a much better matchup that promises extra press coverage.

 

1. Special Deal to Las Vegas Bowl: Northern Illinois

2. GoDaddy.com: Toledo

3. Little Caesar’s Pizza: Ball St. (to face in-state rival Indiana)

4. Famous Idaho Potato: Ohio

5. At-Large Selection to Poinsettia: Bowling Green

6. At-Large Selection to Texas: Buffalo

Also Eligible: Central Michigan

 

M W C: 6 Bowl Tie-ins – 6 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

If Fresno St. wins out and then wins the MWC Championship Game, it will be difficult for the Bulldogs not to qualify for a BCS Bowl.  Northern Illinois could possibly jump FSU, but it is not highly probable.

 

If Fresno St. qualifies for a BCS Bowl, then the Las Vegas Bowl would be faced with the possibility that Boise St. would be headed there for the fourth consecutive season.  We have included a special deal to bring Northern Illinois to Vegas, which will free a rebuilding Boise St. team to stay at home during bowl season.

 

A couple of MWC dark horse teams are in line for bowls this year.  Colorado St. looked very competitive against Alabama, and since then the Rams have turned the corner.  UNLV was picked to finish last in the West Division, and it was expected that this would be Coach Bobby Hauck’s last season in Vegas.  However, the Rebels are just one win away from bowl eligibility, and they will get that sixth win and probably a seventh.

 

1. BCS (Fiesta): Fresno St.

X. Las Vegas: Spot Dealt to Northern Illinois

2. Poinsettia: Utah St.

3. Armed Forces: U N L V

4. New Mexico: Colorado St.

5. Hawaii: San Jose St.

6. Famous Idaho Potato: Boise St.

 

Pac-12: 7 Bowl Tie-ins (plus a secondary 8^th bid) – 10 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Oregon has a couple of tough games remaining, beginning with the big one against Stanford next Thursday evening.  The Ducks can score against any defense, but whether they can stop or slow down a top-rate power running team like Alabama is a major question.  Stanford is about two touchdowns weaker than ‘Bama, so it should offer a little preview of a possible national championship matchup.

 

The rest of the league will have a difficult time separating themselves from each other.  In the South Division, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona St., and even USC are still alive.  We are going with a tie on this side, and we believe Arizona has the best chance to emerge as the division representative in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

 

Washington St. may become bowl eligible for the first time since 2006, but like 2006, they could find themselves without a bowl bid.  The Cougars could join Utah as 6-6 teams having to wait for all the seven-win teams to be invited ahead of them.

 

1. BCS (National Championship): Oregon

2. BCS (Rose): Stanford

3. Alamo: UCLA

4. Holiday: Arizona

5. Sun: Oregon St.

6. Las Vegas: Arizona St.

7. Kraft Fight Hunger: Washington

8. New Mexico: USC

Also Eligible: Washington St., Utah

 

S E C: 10 Bowl Tie-ins – 11 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

There is actually a possibility that 12 teams will become bowl eligible, but we are sticking with 11 for now.  It is almost a metaphysical certitude that two league teams will earn trips to BCS bowls.

 

Alabama has won numerous national championships in the past, and in many of those years, the Crimson Tide started slowly and steadily improved as the season progressed.  This year, the Tide looked beatable earlier in the year, but since the Colorado St. game, the Tide has looked more like the 1995 Nebraska Cornhuskers.

 

And, who might be the second best team in the SEC at the present time?  How about the War Eagles?  Auburn coach Gus Malzahn may earn National Coach of The Year honors.

 

South Carolina’s big comeback win over Missouri after trailing 17-0 in the fourth quarter has given the Gamecocks a big chance to advance to their first ever SEC Championship Game.  If Florida beats Georgia this week and if Missouri loses to either Ole Miss or Texas A&M, and USC beats Mississippi St. and Florida, then Steve Spurrier’s club will win the East.  If USC, Mizzou, and Georgia finish tied at 6-2, then Missouri will win the tiebreaker.

 

A couple of interesting bowl possibilities have arisen in recent weeks.  Ole Miss could end up in Nashville against Duke, pitting Coach Cutcliffe against his old team.  Tennessee needs wins over Kentucky and Vanderbilt, or one of those two and Auburn, to get to six wins.  It is possible that Coach Butch Jones’ Vols could face Cincinnati, Jones’ old team.

 

1. BCS (National Championship Game): Alabama

2. BCS (Sugar): Auburn

3. Capital One: Texas A&M

4. Outback: South Carolina

5. Cotton: L S U

6. Chick-fil-A: Missouri

7. Gator: Florida

8. Music City: Ole Miss

9. Liberty: Georgia

10. BBVA Compass: Tennessee

11. Advocare V100: Vanderbilt

 

Sunbelt: 2 Bowl Tie-ins – 6 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

We are projecting six bowl-eligible teams here, but three of the teams are expected to finish 6-6 and have no chance of receiving invitations.  Of the remaining three expected to finish above .500, only two are guaranteed a bowl, but the third has an excellent chance of earning a semi-at-large bid.  This league has secondary agreements with a couple additional bowls, and we project one of those bowls will need an at-large team.

 

1. New Orleans: UL-Lafayette

2. GoDaddy.com: Troy

3. At-Large (Beef O’Brady’s): Texas St.

Also Eligible: Western Kentucky, Arkansas St., UL-Monroe

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular
1	Alabama	137.1
2	Oregon	135.6
3	Florida St.	130.4
4	Baylor	128.2
5	Stanford	126.0
6	Ohio St.	125.7
7	L S U	123.0
8	Arizona St.	122.6
9	Missouri	122.1
10	Texas A&M	121.5
11	Ole Miss	120.0
12	Oklahoma St.	119.9
13	Wisconsin	119.9
14	Washington	119.7
15	South Carolina	119.5
16	Texas	119.4
17	Oregon St.	118.4
18	Clemson	117.8
19	U C L A	117.3
20	Miami	116.6
21	Michigan St.	116.5
22	Arizona	116.4
23	Florida	116.3
24	Oklahoma	115.8
25	Auburn	115.6
26	Louisville	115.5
27	B Y U	114.8
28	Michigan	114.7
29	Georgia	114.6
30	Notre Dame	113.8
31	U S C	112.7
32	Nebraska	112.6
33	Georgia Tech	112.4
34	Texas Tech	111.0
35	Kansas St.	110.7
36	Virginia Tech	109.4
37	Central Florida	108.9
38	T C U	108.8
39	Northwestern	108.3
40	Utah	108.0
41	Iowa	106.5
42	Mississippi St.	106.4
43	North Carolina	106.2
44	Vanderbilt	105.6
45	Tennessee	105.5
46	Penn St.	105.2
47	Minnesota	105.0
48	Boise St.	104.7
49	Indiana	104.7
50	Cincinnati	104.3
51	Utah St.	104.3
52	Fresno St.	104.0
53	Washington St.	103.7
54	East Carolina	103.4
55	Duke	102.4
56	Houston	102.0
57	Northern Illinois	101.6
58	Ball St.	101.1
59	Wake Forest	100.6
60	Boston College	100.6
61	West Virginia	100.1
62	Toledo	99.8
63	Bowling Green	99.8
64	Pittsburgh	99.1
65	Kentucky	99.1
66	Louisiana–Lafayette	99.0
67	Syracuse	99.0
68	Buffalo	97.8
69	Rice	97.4
70	North Texas	97.3
71	Marshall	97.0
72	Illinois	97.0
73	San Jose St.	96.8
74	Rutgers	96.4
75	Colorado St.	96.0
76	Maryland	95.9
77	Arkansas	95.2
78	Iowa St.	95.2
79	Ohio	94.7
80	S M U	94.2
81	Navy	93.9
82	San Diego St.	93.1
83	Virginia	92.4
84	Kansas	92.0
85	California	91.8
86	North Carolina St.	91.3
87	Tulsa	91.0
88	Arkansas St.	90.7
89	Purdue	90.5
90	Memphis	90.4
91	Western Kentucky	90.2
92	Tulane	88.6
93	Colorado	88.3
94	U T S A	87.7
95	Wyoming	87.7
96	Florida Atlantic	87.7
97	South Florida	87.5
98	South Alabama	87.5
99	Louisiana–Monroe	87.2
100	Kent St.	87.1
101	Nevada	86.8
102	U N L V	86.7
103	Temple	86.6
104	Middle Tennessee	86.0
105	Hawaii	84.3
106	Army	84.0
107	Troy	83.6
108	Connecticut	83.5
109	Central Michigan	82.8
110	Akron	82.2
111	Texas St.	81.9
112	U A B	81.5
113	U T E P	80.8
114	New Mexico	80.2
115	Louisiana Tech	79.5
116	Air Force	77.9
117	Western Michigan	75.5
118	Massachusetts	74.0
119	Miami (O)	73.0
120	Eastern Michigan	71.5
121	Southern Miss.	69.4
122	Idaho	69.1
123	New Mexico St.	69.1
124	Florida Int’l	68.8
125	Georgia St.	62.6

 

PiRate Mean
1	Florida St.	134.8
2	Alabama	133.3
3	Oregon	132.5
4	Ohio St.	124.5
5	Arizona St.	122.2
6	L S U	121.1
7	Baylor	121.0
8	Wisconsin	120.7
9	Missouri	119.9
10	Texas A&M	118.9
11	Clemson	118.8
12	Stanford	118.5
13	Miami	117.5
14	Michigan St.	117.3
15	South Carolina	117.0
16	Ole Miss	116.9
17	Washington	115.6
18	Auburn	114.9
19	Michigan	114.8
20	Louisville	114.6
21	B Y U	113.5
22	Florida	113.5
23	Arizona	113.2
24	Georgia	111.9
25	Central Florida	111.8
26	Notre Dame	111.6
27	U C L A	111.6
28	Georgia Tech	111.5
29	Houston	111.3
30	Oklahoma	111.3
31	Nebraska	111.0
32	Texas	110.9
33	Oklahoma St.	110.6
34	Oregon St.	110.0
35	U S C	110.0
36	Virginia Tech	109.9
37	North Carolina	107.9
38	Texas Tech	107.3
39	Indiana	107.0
40	Penn St.	106.3
41	Northwestern	105.9
42	Iowa	105.8
43	Utah	105.7
44	East Carolina	105.5
45	Ball St.	104.7
46	Tennessee	104.5
47	Minnesota	104.2
48	T C U	104.2
49	Wake Forest	104.1
50	Mississippi St.	103.6
51	Northern Illinois	103.5
52	Duke	103.4
53	Fresno St.	103.3
54	Kansas St.	103.2
55	Cincinnati	103.2
56	Washington St.	103.0
57	Vanderbilt	103.0
58	Utah St.	101.9
59	Toledo	101.3
60	Boston College	100.9
61	Boise St.	100.8
62	Marshall	100.8
63	Rice	100.3
64	Louisiana–Lafayette	100.3
65	Bowling Green	100.2
66	Buffalo	100.1
67	Maryland	99.9
68	Rutgers	99.9
69	North Texas	99.6
70	Illinois	98.9
71	Kentucky	98.9
72	Pittsburgh	98.5
73	Ohio	98.5
74	Arkansas	98.3
75	Syracuse	97.4
76	S M U	96.3
77	Colorado St.	96.3
78	Memphis	96.3
79	Navy	95.7
80	North Carolina St.	95.4
81	Virginia	94.4
82	San Jose St.	93.8
83	West Virginia	92.6
84	Tulane	92.0
85	San Diego St.	91.9
86	Western Kentucky	91.8
87	South Alabama	91.3
88	Middle Tennessee	91.1
89	Army	90.1
90	Tulsa	89.9
91	Colorado	89.9
92	U T S A	89.8
93	Kent St.	89.6
94	Florida Atlantic	89.3
95	U N L V	89.1
96	Wyoming	89.0
97	Nevada	88.9
98	Kansas	88.7
99	Louisiana–Monroe	87.9
100	Purdue	87.9
101	Arkansas St.	87.9
102	Temple	87.5
103	California	87.4
104	Texas St.	87.4
105	Iowa St.	86.8
106	Troy	86.7
107	Akron	85.9
108	Central Michigan	85.5
109	Hawaii	84.7
110	New Mexico	84.1
111	U T E P	83.2
112	South Florida	82.6
113	U A B	82.3
114	Louisiana Tech	81.9
115	Air Force	80.9
116	Connecticut	79.5
117	Massachusetts	79.4
118	Western Michigan	76.9
119	Miami (O)	76.5
120	Eastern Michigan	74.6
121	Idaho	73.8
122	New Mexico St.	72.4
123	Florida Int’l	70.8
124	Southern Miss.	69.1
125	Georgia St.	69.0

 

 

PiRate Bias
1	Alabama	138.2
2	Oregon	136.8
3	Florida St.	132.4
4	Baylor	130.1
5	Ohio St.	125.9
6	Stanford	125.3
7	L S U	123.7
8	Arizona St.	122.6
9	Missouri	121.3
10	Texas A&M	121.3
11	Wisconsin	120.8
12	Ole Miss	119.6
13	Oklahoma St.	119.5
14	Washington	119.4
15	Texas	118.6
16	South Carolina	118.6
17	Clemson	118.5
18	Miami	116.9
19	Oregon St.	116.6
20	Louisville	116.5
21	B Y U	115.8
22	Auburn	115.8
23	U C L A	115.8
24	Michigan St.	115.5
25	Arizona	115.3
26	Oklahoma	115.1
27	Florida	115.0
28	Michigan	114.3
29	Georgia	113.7
30	Georgia Tech	112.6
31	Notre Dame	112.4
32	U S C	112.2
33	Nebraska	111.4
34	Texas Tech	110.4
35	Central Florida	110.3
36	Kansas St.	110.1
37	T C U	108.8
38	Virginia Tech	108.7
39	Northwestern	108.1
40	Utah	107.6
41	Iowa	107.1
42	North Carolina	107.1
43	Mississippi St.	106.0
44	Boise St.	105.9
45	Utah St.	105.8
46	Vanderbilt	104.9
47	Minnesota	104.7
48	Washington St.	104.5
49	Tennessee	104.5
50	Penn St.	104.4
51	Fresno St.	104.3
52	Indiana	104.2
53	East Carolina	104.2
54	Cincinnati	103.7
55	Houston	103.6
56	Ball St.	102.3
57	Northern Illinois	101.9
58	Duke	101.9
59	Boston College	101.7
60	Wake Forest	101.5
61	Toledo	100.9
62	Bowling Green	100.2
63	Louisiana–Lafayette	99.8
64	Kentucky	99.8
65	Buffalo	99.3
66	Pittsburgh	99.0
67	West Virginia	98.6
68	North Texas	98.4
69	Marshall	98.4
70	Rice	97.8
71	Syracuse	97.7
72	San Jose St.	97.6
73	Maryland	97.3
74	Colorado St.	97.0
75	Rutgers	96.8
76	Illinois	96.6
77	Ohio	95.5
78	Iowa St.	94.1
79	Navy	93.9
80	Arkansas	93.7
81	San Diego St.	93.4
82	S M U	93.4
83	Virginia	92.9
84	North Carolina St.	91.9
85	Kansas	91.4
86	Memphis	91.2
87	Western Kentucky	90.3
88	Arkansas St.	90.2
89	California	90.1
90	Tulsa	90.1
91	Tulane	89.1
92	Wyoming	88.7
93	Florida Atlantic	88.4
94	South Alabama	88.4
95	Purdue	87.9
96	Kent St.	87.8
97	U T S A	87.4
98	Louisiana–Monroe	87.2
99	U N L V	87.1
100	Middle Tennessee	86.9
101	Nevada	86.9
102	South Florida	86.8
103	Colorado	86.3
104	Temple	86.0
105	Army	85.7
106	Hawaii	85.0
107	Troy	84.6
108	Connecticut	82.8
109	Akron	82.7
110	Central Michigan	82.3
111	Texas St.	82.2
112	U A B	80.8
113	New Mexico	80.6
114	U T E P	80.4
115	Louisiana Tech	78.4
116	Air Force	77.4
117	Western Michigan	75.6
118	Massachusetts	74.0
119	Miami (O)	71.5
120	Eastern Michigan	70.2
121	Idaho	68.7
122	Florida Int’l	68.6
123	Southern Miss.	68.6
124	New Mexico St.	68.6
125	Georgia St.	63.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Louisville	3-1	7-1	115.5	114.6	116.5
Central Florida	3-0	6-1	108.9	111.8	110.3
Cincinnati	2-1	5-2	104.3	103.2	103.7
Houston	3-0	6-1	102.0	111.3	103.6
Rutgers	1-2	4-3	96.4	99.9	96.8
S M U	2-1	3-4	94.2	96.3	93.4
Memphis	0-3	1-5	90.4	96.3	91.2
South Florida	2-1	2-5	87.5	82.6	86.8
Temple	0-4	1-7	86.6	87.5	86.0
Connecticut	0-3	0-7	83.5	79.5	82.8
League Averages			96.9	98.3	97.1

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida St.	5-0	7-0	130.4	134.8	132.4
Clemson	5-1	7-1	117.8	118.8	118.5
Wake Forest	2-3	4-4	100.6	104.1	101.5
Boston College	1-3	3-4	100.6	100.9	101.7
Syracuse	1-2	3-4	99.0	97.4	97.7
Maryland	1-3	5-3	95.9	99.9	97.3
North Carolina St.	0-4	3-4	91.3	95.4	91.9
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami	3-0	7-0	116.6	117.5	116.9
Georgia Tech	4-2	5-3	112.4	111.5	112.6
Virginia Tech	3-1	6-2	109.4	109.9	108.7
North Carolina	1-3	2-5	106.2	107.9	107.1
Duke	2-2	6-2	102.4	103.4	101.9
Pittsburgh	2-2	4-3	99.1	98.5	99.0
Virginia	0-4	2-6	92.4	94.4	92.9
League Averages			105.3	106.7	105.7

 

 

Big 12 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Baylor	4-0	7-0	128.2	121.0	130.1
Oklahoma St.	3-1	6-1	119.9	110.6	119.5
Texas	4-0	5-2	119.4	110.9	118.6
Oklahoma	4-1	7-1	115.8	111.3	115.1
Texas Tech	4-1	7-1	111.0	107.3	110.4
Kansas St.	1-3	3-4	110.7	103.2	110.1
T C U	1-4	3-5	108.8	104.2	108.8
West Virginia	1-4	3-5	100.1	92.6	98.6
Iowa St.	0-4	1-6	95.2	86.8	94.1
Kansas	0-4	2-5	92.0	88.7	91.4
League Averages			110.1	103.7	109.7

 

 

Big Ten Conference
Leaders Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio St.	4-0	8-0	125.7	124.5	125.9
Wisconsin	3-1	5-2	119.9	120.7	120.8
Penn St.	1-2	4-3	105.2	106.3	104.4
Indiana	1-2	3-4	104.7	107.0	104.2
Illinois	0-3	3-4	97.0	98.9	96.6
Purdue	0-3	1-6	90.5	87.9	87.9
Legends Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Michigan St.	4-0	7-1	116.5	117.3	115.5
Michigan	2-1	6-1	114.7	114.8	114.3
Nebraska	2-1	5-2	112.6	111.0	111.4
Northwestern	0-4	4-4	108.3	105.9	108.1
Iowa	2-2	5-3	106.5	105.8	107.1
Minnesota	2-2	6-2	105.0	104.2	104.7
League Averages			108.9	108.7	108.4

 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
East Carolina	3-1	5-2	103.4	105.5	104.2
Marshall	2-1	4-3	97.0	100.8	98.4
Florida Atlantic	1-4	2-6	87.7	89.3	88.4
Middle Tennessee	2-2	4-4	86.0	91.1	86.9
U A B	1-2	2-5	81.5	82.3	80.8
Southern Miss.	0-3	0-7	69.4	69.1	68.6
Florida Int’l	1-2	1-6	68.8	70.8	68.6
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Rice	4-0	6-2	97.4	100.3	97.8
North Texas	3-1	5-3	97.3	99.6	98.4
Tulsa	1-2	2-5	91.0	89.9	90.1
Tulane	4-0	6-2	88.6	92.0	89.1
U T S A	2-2	3-5	87.7	89.8	87.4
Louisiana Tech	2-2	3-5	80.8	83.2	80.4
U T E P	0-4	1-6	79.5	81.9	78.4
League Averages			86.9	89.0	87.0

 

 

Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
B Y U		6-2	114.8	113.5	115.8
Notre Dame		6-2	113.8	111.6	112.4
Navy		4-3	93.9	95.7	93.9
Army		3-5	84.0	90.1	85.7
Idaho		1-7	69.1	73.8	68.7
New Mexico St.		1-7	69.1	72.4	68.6
Independent Avg’s.			90.8	92.9	90.9

 

 

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Bowling Green	3-1	5-3	99.8	100.2	100.2
Buffalo	4-0	6-2	97.8	100.1	99.3
Ohio	3-1	6-2	94.7	98.5	95.5
Kent St.	1-4	2-7	87.1	89.6	87.8
Akron	1-4	2-7	82.2	85.9	82.7
Massachusetts	1-3	1-7	74.0	79.4	74.0
Miami (O)	0-4	0-8	73.0	76.5	71.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Northern Illinois	4-0	8-0	101.6	103.5	101.9
Ball St.	5-0	8-1	101.1	104.7	102.3
Toledo	3-1	5-3	99.8	101.3	100.9
Central Michigan	2-2	3-5	82.8	85.5	82.3
Western Michigan	1-4	1-8	75.5	76.9	75.6
Eastern Michigan	0-4	1-7	71.5	74.6	70.2
League Averages			87.8	90.5	88.0

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boise St.	3-1	5-3	104.7	100.8	105.9
Utah St.	3-1	4-4	104.3	101.9	105.8
Colorado St.	2-1	4-4	96.0	96.3	97.0
Wyoming	2-2	4-4	87.7	89.0	88.7
New Mexico	0-3	2-5	80.2	84.1	80.6
Air Force	0-5	1-7	77.9	80.9	77.4
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Fresno St.	4-0	7-0	104.0	103.3	104.3
San Jose St.	3-1	4-3	96.8	93.8	97.6
San Diego St.	2-1	3-4	93.1	91.9	93.4
Nevada	2-3	3-5	86.8	88.9	86.9
U N L V	3-1	5-3	86.7	89.1	87.1
Hawaii	0-5	0-7	84.3	84.7	85.0
League Averages			91.9	92.1	92.5

 

 

Pacific 12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oregon	5-0	8-0	135.6	132.5	136.8
Stanford	5-1	7-1	126.0	118.5	125.3
Washington	2-3	5-3	119.7	115.6	119.4
Oregon St.	4-1	6-2	118.4	110.0	116.6
Washington St.	2-3	4-4	103.7	103.0	104.5
California	0-5	1-7	91.8	87.4	90.1
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arizona St.	3-1	5-2	122.6	122.2	122.6
U C L A	2-2	5-2	117.3	111.6	115.8
Arizona	2-2	5-2	116.4	113.2	115.3
U S C	2-2	5-3	112.7	110.0	112.2
Utah	1-4	4-4	108.0	105.7	107.6
Colorado	0-4	3-4	88.3	89.9	86.3
League Averages			113.4	110.0	112.7

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Missouri	3-1	7-1	122.1	119.9	121.3
South Carolina	4-2	6-2	119.5	117.0	118.6
Florida	3-2	4-3	116.3	113.5	115.0
Georgia	3-2	4-3	114.6	111.9	113.7
Vanderbilt	1-4	4-4	105.6	103.0	104.9
Tennessee	1-3	4-4	105.5	104.5	104.5
Kentucky	0-4	1-6	99.1	98.9	99.8
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Alabama	5-0	8-0	137.1	133.3	138.2
L S U	3-2	7-2	123.0	121.1	123.7
Texas A&M	3-2	6-2	121.5	118.9	121.3
Ole Miss	2-3	5-3	120.0	116.9	119.6
Auburn	3-1	7-1	115.6	114.9	115.8
Mississippi St.	1-2	4-3	106.4	103.6	106.0
Arkansas	0-4	3-5	95.2	98.3	93.7
League Averages			114.4	112.6	114.0

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Louisiana–Lafayette	3-0	5-2	99.0	100.3	99.8
Arkansas St.	1-1	3-4	90.7	87.9	90.2
Western Kentucky	1-3	4-4	90.2	91.8	90.3
South Alabama	1-2	3-4	87.5	91.3	88.4
Louisiana–Monroe	2-1	4-4	87.2	87.9	87.2
Troy	3-1	5-3	83.6	86.7	84.6
Texas St.	2-2	5-3	81.9	87.4	82.2
Georgia St.	0-3	0-8	62.6	69.0	63.7
League Averages			85.3	87.8	85.8

 

 

Transitioning Teams
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Old Dominion		5-3	83.3	84.1	90.0
Georgia Southern		4-2	83.1	85.5	90.2
Appalachian St.		1-6	73.6	72.5	80.7
Charlotte		4-4	58.5	63.1	65.6
Not figured in regular averages to 100			74.6	76.3	81.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Memphis	Cincinnati	-10.9	-3.9	-9.5
Houston	South Florida	17.5	31.7	19.8
North Texas	Rice	2.4	1.8	3.1
Troy	UL-Monroe	-1.1	1.3	-0.1
Washington St.	Arizona St.	-15.9	-16.2	-15.1
Oregon St.	U S C	8.7	3.0	7.4
Missouri	Tennessee	19.6	18.4	19.8
Arkansas	Auburn	-17.4	-13.6	-19.1
Purdue	Ohio St.	-32.2	-33.6	-35.0
Boston College	Virginia Tech	-5.8	-6.0	-4.0
Massachusetts	Northern Illinois	-25.6	-22.1	-25.9
Rutgers	Temple	11.8	14.4	12.8
Penn St.	Illinois	11.2	10.4	10.8
Air Force	Army	-3.1	-6.2	-5.3
Iowa	Wisconsin	-10.4	-11.9	-10.7
South Carolina	Mississippi St.	16.1	16.4	15.6
North Carolina St.	North Carolina	-12.9	-10.5	-13.2
Syracuse	Wake Forest	1.4	-3.7	-0.8
Marshall	Southern Miss.	30.1	34.2	32.3
U A B	Middle Tennessee	-2.0	-6.3	-3.6
Georgia St.	Western Kentucky	-25.6	-20.8	-24.6
Virginia	Clemson	-22.4	-21.4	-22.6
Michigan St.	Michigan	3.8	4.5	3.2
Nebraska	Northwestern	7.3	8.1	6.3
California	Arizona	-21.6	-22.8	-22.2
Florida (Jacksonville)	Georgia	1.7	1.6	1.3
Indiana	Minnesota	2.7	5.8	2.5
Notre Dame	Navy	22.9	18.9	21.5
Tulsa	U T S A	6.3	3.1	5.7
Texas	Kansas	30.4	25.2	30.2
Akron	Kent St.	-2.4	-2.2	-2.6
Kansas St.	Iowa St.	18.5	19.4	19.1
T C U	West Virginia	11.7	14.6	13.2
Utah St.	Hawaii	24.0	21.2	24.8
U N L V	San Jose St.	-7.6	-2.2	-8.0
Idaho	Texas St.	-10.3	-11.1	-11.0
UL-Lafayette	New Mexico St.	32.9	30.9	34.2
Florida Atlantic	Tulane	2.1	0.3	2.3
Florida Int’l	East Carolina	-32.1	-32.2	-33.1
Texas Tech	Oklahoma St.	-5.9	-0.3	-6.1
Georgia Tech	Pittsburgh	16.3	11.1	16.6
Toledo	Eastern Michigan	31.3	29.7	33.7
U C L A	Colorado	32.0	24.7	32.5
South Alabama	Arkansas St.	-0.7	5.9	0.7
Florida St.	Miami	16.3	19.8	18.0
San Diego St.	New Mexico	15.9	10.8	15.8
Colorado St.	Boise St.	-5.7	-1.5	-5.9
Texas A&M	U T E P	45.0	40.0	45.9
Fresno St.	Nevada	20.2	17.4	20.4

 

 

Complete Bowl Projections

GAME	Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	Colorado St.	vs.	U S C
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas	Northern Illinois ^	vs.	Arizona St.
Famous Idaho Potato	Boise St.	vs.	Ohio
New Orleans	UL-Lafayette	vs.	Middle Tennessee
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s	Texas St. *	vs.	East Carolina
Hawai’i	San Jose St.	vs.	North Texas
Little Caesars Pizza	Ball St.	vs.	Indiana
Poinsettia	Utah St.	vs.	Bowling Green *
Military Bowl	North Carolina	vs.	Marshall
Texas	Iowa	vs.	Buffalo *
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl	Washington	vs.	B Y U
Pinstripe	Rutgers	vs.	Notre Dame *
Belk	Houston	vs.	Maryland
Russell Athletic	Louisville	vs.	Miami
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Nebraska
Armed Forces	U N L V	vs.	Navy
Music City	Duke	vs.	Ole Miss
Alamo	Texas Tech	vs.	U C L A
Holiday	Kansas St.	vs.	Arizona
AdvoCare V100 Bowl	Vanderbilt	vs.	Georgia Tech
Sun	Virginia Tech	vs.	Oregon St.
Liberty	Georgia	vs.	Tulane
Chick-fil-A	Clemson	vs.	Missouri
Heart Of Dallas	Rice	vs.	Minnesota
Gator	Michigan	vs.	Florida
Outback	South Carolina	vs.	Wisconsin
Capital One	Michigan St.	vs.	Texas A&M
Rose	Ohio St.	vs.	Stanford
Fiesta	Baylor	vs.	Fresno St.
Sugar	Auburn	vs.	Central Florida
Cotton	L S U	vs.	Texas
Orange	Florida St.	vs.	Oklahoma
BBVA Compass Bowl	Cincinnati	vs.	Tennessee
GoDaddy.com	Troy	vs.	Stanford
BCS Championship	Alabama	vs.	Oregon
* At-Large Selection
^ Special Deal to allow NIU to play in better bowl and Boise St. to play in home bowl

 

PiRate Football Ratings Return in August

Hello to all football fans.  The PiRate Ratings are already undergoing their initial statistical compilation for the 2010-2011 football season.  We will begin previewing the FBS conference races in Mid-August and the NFL Divisions after that.

The ratings will be tweaked a little again this season as we change the weightings of the information we use to keep up to date with what wins in football these days.

Once again, we will offer picks for the unbelievably low price of $5 a week, and we will be adding the option of purchasing all our college and pro picks for the season for the 18 weeks of the regular College/Pro seasons plus the Bowls and NFL Playoffs for $75, a 25% discount!  Go to our sister site at www.piratings.webs.com in August to purchase either plan.

PiRate Ratings and Spreads for College Football–September 3-7, 2009

Week 1—September 3-7, 2009

 

It seems like just yesterday that Florida was beating Oklahoma for the national championship.  The season begins anew tonight, and the PiRate Ratings are here.

 

There have been a few changes here this season.  First, there are now five of us here, so we will have time to devote to both college and pro this year.

 

This year, we will be offering very affordable services through our webpage at www.piratings.webs.com.  For just $5 each week, we will e-mail you our picks by Noon Eastern Time Thursday.  What you do with them is your choice, and we use these picks only in contests.

 

Do not use the PiRate Ratings themselves as a guide to your selections.  We don’t do this, because we look at additional information when we make our choices.  The PiRate and Mean Ratings are general spreads—what we would expect if the teams’ played 100 times.  We need to know about just the one game actually being played.

 

Without further adieu, let’s get on with the show.

 

NCAA Top 25 For Preseason
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Florida	142	0	0
2	Oklahoma	136	0	0
3	Texas	135	0	0
4	Southern Cal	125	0	0
5	Ole Miss	120	0	0
6	Alabama	120	0	0
7	California	120	0	0
8	Okla. St.	118	0	0
9	Va. Tech	117	0	0
10	Penn St.	116	0	0
11	Florida St.	116	0	0
12	Georgia Tech	115	0	0
13	Georgia	114	0	0
14	L S U	114	0	0
15	Iowa	114	0	0
16	N. Carolina	113	0	0
17	Ohio St.	113	0	0
18	Clemson	113	0	0
19	Pittsburgh	112	0	0
20	Texas Tech	112	0	0
21	T C U	111	0	0
22	Kansas	110	0	0
23	Boise St.	109	0	0
24	Oregon St.	109	0	0
25	Boston Coll.	109	0	0
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	0-0	0-0	115.8
Clemson	0-0	0-0	112.7
Boston College	0-0	0-0	109.1
North Carolina State	0-0	0-0	108.4
Wake Forest	0-0	0-0	106.1
Maryland	0-0	0-0	97.6
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	0-0	0-0	117.2
Georgia Tech	0-0	0-0	114.7
North Carolina	0-0	0-0	113.4
Miami-FL	0-0	0-0	108.4
Virginia	0-0	0-0	99.1
Duke	0-0	0-0	96.5

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Pittsburgh	0-0	0-0	112.0
Rutgers	0-0	0-0	106.3
South Florida	0-0	0-0	104.9
Cincinnati	0-0	0-0	102.9
West Virginia	0-0	0-0	101.5
Connecticut	0-0	0-0	100.0
Louisville	0-0	0-0	95.0
Syracuse	0-0	0-0	93.3

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Penn State	0-0	0-0	116.3
Iowa	0-0	0-0	113.5
Ohio State	0-0	0-0	113.1
Illinois	0-0	0-0	106.1
Michigan State	0-0	0-0	103.4
Michigan	0-0	0-0	102.3
Wisconsin	0-0	0-0	101.3
Minnesota	0-0	0-0