The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 7, 2016

Our Unique Way of Compiling our College Retrodictive Ratings

We have been asked by multiple readers to explain a little more in depth how we compile our PiRate Retrodictive ratings and what exactly this rating means.

 

By the way, if you have comments you would like to make, please visit our sister site and use the “contact us” link, at:

http://piratings.webs.com/

There are basically two types of ratings in sports like football and basketball. The first type is Predictive, and this type is used by sports bettors. As the name implies, these ratings are used to attempt to predict the outcomes of the next week of games. If State U has a rating of 106.5, and Tech has a rating of 102.3, then on a neutral field, State would be expected to beat Tech by 4.2 points. Of course, home field advantage could alter this predictive spread by additional points. The regular PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings are predictive in nature. A team that started the season 0-4 and then finished 8-4 might be favored in a bowl over a team that went 11-1, because what the 8-4 team did in its first four games is not as important as what they did in their final games.

Retrodictive ratings or rankings look backward and rate the teams on what they have done to date. What the team did in its first game is just as important as what they did in their most recent game. It is an attempt to rank the teams by their performance on their whole body of work. That 8-4 team would most likely be rated well behind the 11-1 team on the body of work to date.

Our Retrodictive Rankings take considerably more time to compile than our regular PiRate Ratings. First, there are three components to the ranking. The first is rather obvious–wins and losses. The second is also obvious–strength of schedule. The third is well known to many, but you may not realize that in addition to strength of schedule, the strengths of schedule of all the opponents played is vitally important.

As an example, let’s say that Iowa opens the season with a win over Boston College. As the season goes on, Iowa’s rating is influenced by what Boston College does and what all the teams Boston College plays do. So, if Iowa has a bye after that first game, and Boston College proceeds to beat Florida State the following week, Iowa’s rating is going to go up almost as much as Boston College’s rating goes up.

Point differential can be included in retrodictive-style ratings, and we here at the PiRate Ratings have a rather unique way of including the type of score in a team’s wins and losses. It is not an exact science, but we like our version and believe it has merit over standard point differential. Here is a rundown on this process.
What type of win or loss was this game for the team in question? We rate wins and losses as:
A. Blowout
B. Decisive
C. Good
D. Fortunate
E. Tossup

A blowout win does not have to be by 40 points. If a team wins 28-0 and holds their opponent to 150 total yards, this rates as a blowout. If a team led 42-0 at halftime and then won 49-24, it still counts as a blowout. If a team led 24-20 midway through the third quarter and then won 45-20, this will usually not count as a blowout.

A decisive win is one in which the winner would have won this game close to 100% of the time but did not win in such a way that allowed the team to rest its starters for the final 20-25 minutes of the game. A 35-10 win with the winner leading 21-10 and scoring 14 points in the fourth quarter would be one example of a decisive but not blowout win.

A good win is one in which the winner would have probably won 7 to 8 times out of 10 with the same stats generated. A 10-17 point win is often a good win, unless the winner was outgained by more than 100 yards.

A fortunate win is one in which the winner won by 4-9 points but the outcome was always in doubt. In some cases, the winner had stats that looked more like they should have been the loser.

A tossup win is the same as a fortunate win but with the final spread being 1-3 points. All overtime wins count as tossup wins.

The better the win, the more points the winner receives and the loser gives up. If Georgia beats North Carolina 42-14, they receive more points than if they beat the Tar Heels 17-14.

For strength of schedule, we rate each of the 128 FBS teams from 10 to -10 in tenths so that the current top team is ranked as a 10, and the number 128 team is ranked as -10. FCS teams receive a rating of 5.0 to -15.0.

Let’s say that through 4 games, Oklahoma has played teams that currently rate in our strength of schedule as 9.2, 8.6, 5.4, and 1.3 points. The Sooners’ average schedule strength is 6.1. We are not done yet. Now, we have to adjust this number based on the strength of Oklahoma’s opponents’ schedule other than playing the Sooners. So, if that 9.2 strength team played a schedule to date that averages 5.8, and the other three teams played schedules with 4.3, 7.1, and -2.9, Oklahoma’s opponents’ strength of schedules average to 3.6.
Obviously, Oklahoma’s own strength of schedule of 6.1 is worth more than their opponents’ strength of schedule of 3.6, but their schedule strength portion of the equation is lower than 6.1 because of the weaker scheduling of their opponents. In this case, the algorithm we use through 4 games played will lower the overall strength to about 5.3.

We combine the score for the team’s wins and losses with the schedule strength, and it leaves us with a final number between 10 and -10. In actuality, no team approaches these outlier numbers. For instance, this week, Alabama comes in at 8.27 to be number one, while Texas State and Buffalo bring up the rear at -7.59. Because these are not predictive, you cannot use these numbers to predict the outcome of a game should Alabama play Texas State or Buffalo.

Of course, home field advantage is factored into the outcomes of the games. If Georgia beats Clemson between the hedges by a score of 17-14, it does not count as much as if they had defeated the Tigers 17-14 at Howard’s Rock.

We hope that clarifies and not confuses you further.  We are better with numbers than with letters.

August 24, 2016

College Football Preview–August 26, 2016

The College Football season kicks off a week earlier than normal this year thanks to the California Golden Bears playing the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at ANZ Stadium in Sydney, Australia.  The chosen venue is the former site of the 2000 Summer Olympic Games, but in our opinion, this game would have been better placed in the Sydney Cricket Grounds, where the current Australian Football League Sydney Swans play.  48,000 seats are more than enough for these two teams, and ANZ Stadium holds around 80K.  Past games in Australia have drawn fewer than 20,000 fans.

 

Here are the initial PiRate Retrodictive Rankings For 2016.  Retrodictive refers to how teams have done so far to date, trying to rate the teams in order of who they have beaten and who has beaten them; they are not able to be used to predict the future, like our regular Predictive Ratings, which follow below.  Obviously, with no games played to date, these rankings are not yet Retrodictive.  Rather than re-list last year’s final Retrodictive Rankings, we have applied the updates to the 128 teams’ regular ratings to last year’s final rankings.

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Oklahoma
2 LSU
3 Florida St.
4 Alabama
5 Tennessee
6 Clemson
7 Ohio St.
8 Michigan
9 USC
10 Oklahoma St.
11 Ole Miss
12 Stanford
13 Louisville
14 Washington
15 TCU
16 Oregon
17 Georgia
18 Notre Dame
19 North Carolina
20 Florida
21 Arkansas
22 Auburn
23 Pittsburgh
24 Iowa
25 Miami (Fla)
26 UCLA
27 Texas
28 Texas A&M
29 Michigan St.
30 Mississippi St.
31 Washington St.
32 Wisconsin
33 Baylor
34 West Virginia
35 Nebraska
36 Utah
37 Penn St.
38 Virginia Tech
39 Arizona St.
40 Houston
41 BYU
42 North Carolina St.
43 Arizona
44 Georgia Tech
45 Boise St.
46 Northwestern
47 South Florida
48 Kansas St.
49 San Diego St.
50 Boston College
51 Texas Tech
52 Cincinnati
53 Minnesota
54 Virginia
55 Missouri
56 Indiana
57 Western Michigan
58 Temple
59 Vanderbilt
60 Syracuse
61 Kentucky
62 Air Force
63 Navy
64 California
65 Colorado
66 Toledo
67 Wake Forest
68 South Carolina
69 Appalachian St.
70 Illinois
71 Iowa St.
72 Central Michigan
73 Memphis
74 Western Kentucky
75 Duke
76 Northern Illinois
77 Connecticut
78 Georgia Southern
79 Purdue
80 Maryland
81 Utah St.
82 Tulsa
83 Rutgers
84 Marshall
85 Bowling Green
86 Oregon St.
87 Arkansas St.
88 MTSU
89 Nevada
90 Southern Miss.
91 Louisiana Tech
92 East Carolina
93 Ohio
94 San Jose St.
95 SMU
96 Colorado St.
97 New Mexico
98 Army
99 Rice
100 Akron
101 Kansas
102 UNLV
103 Central Florida
104 Troy
105 Florida Atlantic
106 Florida Int’l.
107 Buffalo
108 Fresno St.
109 Ball St.
110 Old Dominion
111 Georgia St.
112 Tulane
113 Kent St.
114 UL-Lafayette
115 Wyoming
116 Miami (O)
117 Idaho
118 South Alabama
119 Massachusetts
120 UTEP
121 Hawaii
122 UTSA
123 Eastern Michigan
124 Charlotte
125 New Mexico St.
126 North Texas
127 UL-Monroe
128 Texas St.

Here are the regular PiRate Ratings for the opening week of the season.  In some cases, these ratings differ slightly from the ratings given during the conference previews of the last 10 days, the reason being that players have quit, been injured, or transferred since the data was first compiled.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Tennessee 127.7 121.8 128.4 126.0
2 LSU 127.6 121.1 126.8 125.2
3 Oklahoma 125.6 122.1 125.6 124.4
4 Alabama 126.5 119.0 125.0 123.5
5 Clemson 126.8 116.4 125.7 123.0
6 Florida St. 122.9 115.4 121.9 120.1
7 Michigan 120.0 118.0 120.4 119.5
8 Mississippi St. 120.1 115.9 119.7 118.6
9 Stanford 121.3 112.8 120.4 118.2
10 Oklahoma St. 117.5 118.8 117.5 117.9
11 USC 119.7 114.3 118.0 117.3
12 Washington 119.4 110.4 119.1 116.3
13 Louisville 118.6 111.8 118.0 116.1
14 Texas 114.4 118.0 114.4 115.6
15 Pittsburgh 117.1 111.7 116.4 115.1
16 North Carolina 117.4 109.2 117.1 114.6
17 Auburn 114.5 113.8 113.9 114.1
18 TCU 113.3 115.6 113.2 114.0
19 Notre Dame 116.2 111.0 114.8 114.0
20 Florida 113.5 116.8 111.1 113.8
21 Arkansas 116.4 110.3 114.2 113.7
22 Miami 116.6 108.0 115.9 113.5
23 Ohio St. 113.3 113.5 113.5 113.4
24 Iowa 114.6 110.9 114.2 113.2
25 Georgia 112.5 114.0 112.1 112.9
26 Michigan St. 113.1 112.4 111.1 112.2
27 Oregon 112.8 111.8 111.7 112.1
28 Texas A&M 112.1 111.4 112.0 111.8
29 Virginia Tech 111.0 110.8 111.5 111.1
30 Ole Miss 113.6 107.4 112.1 111.0
31 Washington St. 112.3 107.6 112.0 110.7
32 UCLA 110.9 110.2 110.3 110.5
33 Houston 110.1 108.3 111.9 110.1
34 Baylor 109.4 109.7 110.6 109.9
35 Penn St. 109.5 111.3 108.0 109.6
36 Nebraska 110.4 105.9 110.5 108.9
37 Arizona St. 108.7 109.2 107.7 108.6
38 Utah 111.4 105.3 108.9 108.5
39 Wisconsin 109.1 105.9 109.5 108.2
40 BYU 110.6 102.9 110.3 107.9
41 South Florida 108.3 105.7 109.5 107.8
42 Northwestern 109.7 103.5 108.1 107.1
43 North Carolina St. 108.0 104.7 107.6 106.8
44 Georgia Tech 108.1 104.2 107.4 106.6
45 West Virginia 106.6 106.1 106.0 106.2
46 Arizona 107.2 105.2 106.1 106.2
47 Boise St. 104.4 105.7 106.3 105.5
48 Colorado 107.0 102.1 107.0 105.4
49 San Diego St. 104.9 102.2 108.2 105.1
50 Boston College 105.1 103.6 104.9 104.5
51 Kansas St. 103.1 107.5 102.5 104.4
52 Vanderbilt 106.9 100.7 105.1 104.3
53 Minnesota 104.8 102.8 104.7 104.1
54 Texas Tech 104.9 102.3 102.7 103.3
55 Virginia 104.4 101.2 103.8 103.1
56 Syracuse 105.2 101.0 103.1 103.1
57 Indiana 101.5 106.0 100.9 102.8
58 Missouri 103.0 101.8 102.5 102.5
59 Western Michigan 102.0 100.9 103.9 102.3
60 Cincinnati 101.5 102.7 102.5 102.3
61 Temple 102.2 101.2 103.1 102.2
62 Maryland 100.9 104.2 98.1 101.1
63 Wake Forest 102.3 99.2 101.5 101.0
64 Tulsa 99.7 102.2 100.4 100.8
65 Kentucky 100.4 102.3 99.2 100.6
66 Toledo 101.0 98.9 101.8 100.6
67 Memphis 102.7 97.8 100.8 100.5
68 Central Michigan 98.9 101.9 99.9 100.2
69 Air Force 99.9 100.2 100.1 100.1
70 California 104.7 93.3 101.0 99.7
71 Duke 99.4 100.7 98.0 99.4
72 Iowa St. 99.8 99.2 98.7 99.2
73 Illinois 100.6 97.2 99.8 99.2
74 Navy 99.2 99.0 98.6 99.0
75 South Carolina 99.0 99.3 98.1 98.8
76 Northern Illinois 97.3 98.9 98.4 98.2
77 Purdue 99.4 96.6 98.3 98.1
78 Connecticut 98.3 96.1 98.6 97.7
79 Western Kentucky 99.3 93.3 100.0 97.5
80 Rutgers 99.0 96.2 97.3 97.5
81 Bowling Green 96.7 94.7 97.3 96.2
82 Appalachian St. 95.5 95.7 97.1 96.1
83 New Mexico 94.3 97.6 95.6 95.9
84 Oregon St. 97.8 93.0 95.0 95.3
85 Marshall 92.5 96.9 94.3 94.6
86 Utah St. 93.2 97.1 93.0 94.4
87 Nevada 92.3 95.6 93.6 93.9
88 Arkansas St. 91.9 94.2 94.4 93.5
89 Georgia Southern 93.0 91.7 95.5 93.4
90 SMU 93.7 92.1 93.2 93.0
91 Southern Mississippi 92.7 92.1 93.8 92.9
92 East Carolina 91.6 94.6 91.7 92.6
93 Middle Tennessee 91.2 93.8 92.3 92.4
94 Ohio 88.7 98.2 90.1 92.4
95 San Jose St. 91.0 91.0 91.9 91.3
96 UNLV 89.0 93.6 89.1 90.6
97 Kansas 88.3 96.1 85.9 90.1
98 Colorado St. 88.2 90.6 89.0 89.3
99 Army 84.2 93.2 86.6 88.0
100 Rice 84.7 94.1 85.1 88.0
101 Akron 84.8 92.6 86.5 88.0
102 Old Dominion 85.8 89.2 86.4 87.1
103 Central Florida 85.9 88.6 85.9 86.8
104 Florida Atlantic 84.9 88.6 86.8 86.8
105 Louisiana Tech 85.4 88.6 86.0 86.7
106 Troy 83.6 90.2 85.2 86.4
107 Florida International 82.4 89.6 84.3 85.4
108 Buffalo 80.8 90.1 82.2 84.4
109 Ball St. 83.6 85.6 83.8 84.3
110 Georgia St. 81.7 87.1 83.9 84.2
111 Fresno St. 82.1 87.1 81.9 83.7
112 Tulane 82.2 86.1 82.0 83.4
113 Miami (O) 82.2 84.0 82.9 83.0
114 Kent St. 82.3 84.5 82.2 83.0
115 Wyoming 82.5 82.5 82.6 82.6
116 UTSA 78.4 87.1 80.9 82.2
117 Idaho 78.1 85.2 79.7 81.0
118 UL-Lafayette 76.3 86.8 78.7 80.6
119 Eastern Michigan 78.1 83.6 79.5 80.4
120 South Alabama 75.3 85.2 76.2 78.9
121 Massachusetts 75.0 84.5 76.2 78.6
122 UTEP 74.5 79.5 75.8 76.6
123 Hawaii 77.0 76.5 75.7 76.4
124 Charlotte 73.0 81.1 74.6 76.2
125 New Mexico St. 73.7 76.5 74.9 75.0
126 North Texas 74.0 76.6 73.7 74.8
127 UL-Monroe 67.9 73.3 68.3 69.8
128 Texas St. 68.8 69.5 69.5 69.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 108.3 105.7 109.5 107.8
Cincinnati 101.5 102.7 102.5 102.3
Temple 102.2 101.2 103.1 102.2
Connecticut 98.3 96.1 98.6 97.7
East Carolina 91.6 94.6 91.7 92.6
Central Florida 85.9 88.6 85.9 86.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 110.1 108.3 111.9 110.1
Tulsa 99.7 102.2 100.4 100.8
Memphis 102.7 97.8 100.8 100.5
Navy 99.2 99.0 98.6 99.0
SMU 93.7 92.1 93.2 93.0
Tulane 82.2 86.1 82.0 83.4
         
AAC Averages 98.0 97.9 98.2 98.0
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 126.8 116.4 125.7 123.0
Florida St. 122.9 115.4 121.9 120.1
Louisville 118.6 111.8 118.0 116.1
North Carolina St. 108.0 104.7 107.6 106.8
Boston College 105.1 103.6 104.9 104.5
Syracuse 105.2 101.0 103.1 103.1
Wake Forest 102.3 99.2 101.5 101.0
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Pittsburgh 117.1 111.7 116.4 115.1
North Carolina 117.4 109.2 117.1 114.6
Miami 116.6 108.0 115.9 113.5
Virginia Tech 111.0 110.8 111.5 111.1
Georgia Tech 108.1 104.2 107.4 106.6
Virginia 104.4 101.2 103.8 103.1
Duke 99.4 100.7 98.0 99.4
         
ACC Averages 111.6 107.0 110.9 109.9
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 125.6 122.1 125.6 124.4
Oklahoma St. 117.5 118.8 117.5 117.9
Texas 114.4 118.0 114.4 115.6
TCU 113.3 115.6 113.2 114.0
Baylor 109.4 109.7 110.6 109.9
West Virginia 106.6 106.1 106.0 106.2
Kansas St. 103.1 107.5 102.5 104.4
Texas Tech 104.9 102.3 102.7 103.3
Iowa St. 99.8 99.2 98.7 99.2
Kansas 88.3 96.1 85.9 90.1
         
Big 12 Averages 108.3 109.6 107.7 108.5
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Michigan 120.0 118.0 120.4 119.5
Ohio St. 113.3 113.5 113.5 113.4
Michigan St. 113.1 112.4 111.1 112.2
Penn St. 109.5 111.3 108.0 109.6
Indiana 101.5 106.0 100.9 102.8
Maryland 100.9 104.2 98.1 101.1
Rutgers 99.0 96.2 97.3 97.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Iowa 114.6 110.9 114.2 113.2
Nebraska 110.4 105.9 110.5 108.9
Wisconsin 109.1 105.9 109.5 108.2
Northwestern 109.7 103.5 108.1 107.1
Minnesota 104.8 102.8 104.7 104.1
Illinois 100.6 97.2 99.8 99.2
Purdue 99.4 96.6 98.3 98.1
         
Big Ten Averages 107.6 106.0 106.7 106.8
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 99.3 93.3 100.0 97.5
Marshall 92.5 96.9 94.3 94.6
Middle Tennessee 91.2 93.8 92.3 92.4
Old Dominion 85.8 89.2 86.4 87.1
Florida Atlantic 84.9 88.6 86.8 86.8
Florida International 82.4 89.6 84.3 85.4
Charlotte 73.0 81.1 74.6 76.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Southern Mississippi 92.7 92.1 93.8 92.9
Rice 84.7 94.1 85.1 88.0
Louisiana Tech 85.4 88.6 86.0 86.7
UTSA 78.4 87.1 80.9 82.2
UTEP 74.5 79.5 75.8 76.6
North Texas 74.0 76.6 73.7 74.8
         
CUSA Averages 84.5 88.5 85.7 86.2
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 116.2 111.0 114.8 114.0
BYU 110.6 102.9 110.3 107.9
Army 84.2 93.2 86.6 88.0
Massachusetts 75.0 84.5 76.2 78.6
         
Independents Averages 96.5 97.9 97.0 97.1
 
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 96.7 94.7 97.3 96.2
Ohio 88.7 98.2 90.1 92.4
Akron 84.8 92.6 86.5 88.0
Buffalo 80.8 90.1 82.2 84.4
Miami (O) 82.2 84.0 82.9 83.0
Kent St. 82.3 84.5 82.2 83.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 102.0 100.9 103.9 102.3
Toledo 101.0 98.9 101.8 100.6
Central Michigan 98.9 101.9 99.9 100.2
Northern Illinois 97.3 98.9 98.4 98.2
Ball St. 83.6 85.6 83.8 84.3
Eastern Michigan 78.1 83.6 79.5 80.4
         
MAC Averages 89.7 92.8 90.7 91.1
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 104.4 105.7 106.3 105.5
Air Force 99.9 100.2 100.1 100.1
New Mexico 94.3 97.6 95.6 95.9
Utah St. 93.2 97.1 93.0 94.4
Colorado St. 88.2 90.6 89.0 89.3
Wyoming 82.5 82.5 82.6 82.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 104.9 102.2 108.2 105.1
Nevada 92.3 95.6 93.6 93.9
San Jose St. 91.0 91.0 91.9 91.3
UNLV 89.0 93.6 89.1 90.6
Fresno St. 82.1 87.1 81.9 83.7
Hawaii 77.0 76.5 75.7 76.4
         
MWC Averages 91.6 93.4 92.3 92.4
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 121.3 112.8 120.4 118.2
Washington 119.4 110.4 119.1 116.3
Oregon 112.8 111.8 111.7 112.1
Washington St. 112.3 107.6 112.0 110.7
California 104.7 93.3 101.0 99.7
Oregon St. 97.8 93.0 95.0 95.3
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 119.7 114.3 118.0 117.3
UCLA 110.9 110.2 110.3 110.5
Arizona St. 108.7 109.2 107.7 108.6
Utah 111.4 105.3 108.9 108.5
Arizona 107.2 105.2 106.1 106.2
Colorado 107.0 102.1 107.0 105.4
         
Pac-12 Averages 111.1 106.3 109.8 109.1
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 127.7 121.8 128.4 126.0
Florida 113.5 116.8 111.1 113.8
Georgia 112.5 114.0 112.1 112.9
Vanderbilt 106.9 100.7 105.1 104.3
Missouri 103.0 101.8 102.5 102.5
Kentucky 100.4 102.3 99.2 100.6
South Carolina 99.0 99.3 98.1 98.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
LSU 127.6 121.1 126.8 125.2
Alabama 126.5 119.0 125.0 123.5
Mississippi St. 120.1 115.9 119.7 118.6
Auburn 114.5 113.8 113.9 114.1
Arkansas 116.4 110.3 114.2 113.7
Texas A&M 112.1 111.4 112.0 111.8
Ole Miss 113.6 107.4 112.1 111.0
         
SEC Averages 113.9 111.1 112.9 112.6
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 95.5 95.7 97.1 96.1
Arkansas St. 91.9 94.2 94.4 93.5
Georgia Southern 93.0 91.7 95.5 93.4
Troy 83.6 90.2 85.2 86.4
Georgia St. 81.7 87.1 83.9 84.2
Idaho 78.1 85.2 79.7 81.0
UL-Lafayette 76.3 86.8 78.7 80.6
South Alabama 75.3 85.2 76.2 78.9
New Mexico St. 73.7 76.5 74.9 75.0
UL-Monroe 67.9 73.3 68.3 69.8
Texas St. 68.8 69.5 69.5 69.3
         
Sun Belt Averages 80.5 85.1 82.1 82.6

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Southeastern 113.9 111.1 112.9 112.6
2 Atlantic Coast 111.6 107.0 110.9 109.9
3 Pac-12 111.1 106.3 109.8 109.1
4 Big 12 108.3 109.6 107.7 108.5
5 Big Ten 107.6 106.1 106.7 106.8
6 American 98.0 97.9 98.2 98.0
7 Independents 96.5 97.9 97.0 97.1
8 Mountain West 91.6 93.4 92.3 92.4
9 Mid-American 89.7 92.9 90.7 91.1
10 Conference USA 84.5 88.5 85.7 86.3
11 Sunbelt 80.5 85.1 82.1 82.6

 

PiRate Ratings Spreads For August 26, 2016

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Hawaii California -27.6 -16.8 -25.2

Bowl Projections

We erred when issuing bowl projections in our conference previews, completely forgetting that the current Rose Bowl tie-in calls for the Pac-12 and Big Ten to supply the highest rated teams not in the playoffs, rather than using the old BCS formula rules.

 

Therefore, we have moved Ohio State into the Rose Bowl in lieu of Alabama, which in turn caused us to rearrange several other bowls once Alabama was moved to an SEC only bowl.

 

We are sorry for the error.  Here are the updated Bowl Projections.

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Rice
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC Arizona St. vs. Boise St.
Cure AAC SBC [Army] vs. Troy
Camellia MAC SBC North. Illinois vs. Ga. Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC W. Kentucky vs. Arkansas St.
Miami Beach AAC MAC Tulsa vs. West. Michigan
Boca Raton AAC CUSA [Cent. Michigan] vs. Southern Miss.
Poinsettia MWC BYU San Diego St. vs. BYU
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Bowling Green vs. UNLV
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA Memphis vs. Toledo
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. [Arizona]
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U vs. Appalachian St.
Hawaii CUSA MWC Marshall vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND Houston vs. [Colorado]
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten Boston College vs. Wisconsin
Independence SEC ACC/ND [UL-Lafayette] vs. Georgia Tech
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA Indiana vs. Middle Tenn.
Military ACC/ND AAC N. Carolina St. vs. Temple
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. vs. Oregon
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 [Maryland] vs. Utah
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Virginia Tech vs. Northwestern
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 Louisville vs. TCU
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota vs. Washington St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor vs. Mississippi St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati vs. Texas A&M
Belk ACC/ND SEC Miami (Fla) vs. Florida
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. vs. USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. Ole Miss
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 Pittsburgh vs. UCLA
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC Louisiana Tech vs. Utah St.
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Nebraska vs. Auburn
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Florida St. vs. Notre Dame
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Iowa vs. Alabama
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC North Carolina vs. Arkansas
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Tennessee vs. Stanford
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Michigan vs. Oklahoma
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. vs. Georgia
Cotton At-Large At-Large Clemson vs. South Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Washington vs. Ohio St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Texas vs. LSU
Nat’l Championship Semifinal Winners Tennessee vs. Michigan

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections because the contracted conference will not have a bowl eligible team able to fill the slot.

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 11, 2013

PiRate Ratings: College Football–November 12-16, 2013

Big Week Ahead

For the rabid fan of college football in general, this is the best week of the season to date.  There may not be as many marquee games as last week, but overall there are more meaningful games in this week’s schedule than any other week to this point.

 

Here is an abridged version of what we are calling key games.

 

AAC

Cincinnati (4-1/7-2) at Rutgers (2-2/5-3)

Quietly, Tommy Tuberville has the Bearcats in contention in the AAC.  While we do not believe UC can win the league, this game is crucial in bowl priorities.  The winner will have the advantage over the loser for the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium, while the loser could be looking at Birmingham.

 

Houston (4-1/7-2) at Louisville (4-1/8-1)

The horse is already out of the barn for these two teams, as they need Central Florida to lose twice to have a shot at winning the league’s BCS Bowl bid.  Still, this is an important game for possible second place in the AAC.  It should be an interesting game as well.

 

ACC

Georgia Tech (5-2/6-3) at Clemson (6-1/8-1)

The underdog is the team still in the race for the league title game.  Georgia Tech now finds itself in the lead in the ACC Coastal Division by a half-game over Virginia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets must win this game to have a chance to take the division title, and they need for Miami and Virginia Tech to lose or one of those teams to lose, while Duke wins out.  Ga. Tech loses in head-to-head tiebreakers with the Hurricanes and Hokies, but they hold the tiebreaker over Duke.

 

Clemson can win out at 11-1, and the best the Tigers can probably hope for is a return visit to Atlanta for the Chick-fil-A Bowl.  Florida St. has already clinched the Atlantic Division title.

 

Syracuse (3-2/5-4) at Florida St. (7-0/9-0)

Could this be a trap game for the Seminoles?  On paper, it looks like another possible 49-10 type of game.  At the extreme, most experts cannot see this game being any closer than 17-20 points.

 

But, and there is a big one here, Syracuse’s defense has come to life in a big way, and the players are really confident that they can stop anybody.  Yes, the great stands came against inferior offenses, but SU will go into this game believing it can force turnover on FSU and keep the Seminoles from scoring 35 points in the first 20 minutes of the game, like they have in recent weeks.

 

We believe this game will be important for more other reasons.  From this game, Alabama will learn a lot about what works and what does not against the ‘Nole offense.  Additionally, Syracuse will find some holes up front in the FSU defense, and these vulnerabilities will be exploitable by the Crimson Tide running game if these two powers meet for all the marbles.

 

Boston College (2-3/5-4) at North Carolina St. (0-6/3-6)

This is a big trap game for the Eagles, as the Wolfpack must go 3-0 to get back to a bowl.  Boston College could be in jeopardy of going to a bowl if they lose this game.  At 6-6, BC would lose out to almost any other 6-6 team in the ACC if there was just one bowl bid left to give out, because they have not travelled well to recent bowl games.  Also, if there is an at-large spot out there, the Eagles can forget being invited at 6-6, because there will be a surplus of 7-win teams needing at-large invitations.

 

North Carolina (3-3/4-5) at Pittsburgh (2-3/5-4)

This is purely and simply a bowl-elimination game.  The loser of this contest has a razor’s edge chance of earning a bowl invitation, even if they recover to finish 6-6.  The ACC is going to have more bowl-eligible teams than they have bowl allotments, and 6-6 may not be good enough to garner a bid.

 

North Carolina is this year’s version of Rice.  The Tar Heels were 1-5 and have no won three in a row with an excellent chance of running the table to 7-5 or finishing 6-6.

 

Pittsburgh now has a rather substantial win over Notre Dame on its resume, and a win here makes the Panthers a strong bowl-eligible 6-4 with a good chance for at least a 7-5 finish.  In the ACC, if either school is 7-5, that team will definitely go bowling.

 

It is not totally impossible that UNC could still sneak up and win the division.  If Duke wins its next two games, and Georgia Tech loses to Clemson this week, and Virginia Tech loses one more game, the Tar Heels will be playing Duke for the ACC Coastal Division flag.

 

Maryland (1-4/5-4) at Virginia Tech (4-2/7-3)

Virginia Tech recovered from the unexpected two-game losing streak to knock off Miami and throw the Coastal Division race wide open.  The Hokies have the best chance at winning the division, and they will do so at 6-2 if Duke loses a game.  A loss here probably eliminates them from the race.

 

As for Maryland, the Terps have tanked since September.  What looked like a for sure bowl team thanks to a very week schedule, UM now is on the verge of playing itself to bubble status and even possibly to a 5-7 record.  Coach Randy Edsall may have been a mistake hire in College Park, and the fans and media have turned against him.  A loss in this game coupled with a loss to Boston College or North Carolina St. probably keeps Maryland at home for the holidays and possibly sends Edsall on his way out of town.

 

Miami (3-2/7-2) at Duke (3-2/7-2)

Are you kiddin’ me?  Duke, the perennial doormat of the ACC, can be in the driver’s seat to win the Coastal Division title by beating Miami this week?  If the Blue Devils beat the Hurricanes, and Georgia Tech loses to Clemson, then that is indeed the case, because Duke will control its own destiny with remaining games against Wake Forest and North Carolina.

 

Miami still has a shot at recovering to meet Florida St. in a rematch in Charlotte.  The Hurricanes are hurting though, and we are not sure they have the manpower to recover fully.  The final game at Pittsburgh looks like a tough trap game, and the “U” must finish ahead of Virginia Tech in the standings to win the division.  We say, it will not happen.

 

 

Big Ten

Michigan St. (5-0/8-1) at Nebraska (4-1/7-2)

Two weeks ago, Nebraska looked dead in the Legends Division race after losing to Minnesota.  With a road game at Michigan, it was merely a formality that the Cornhuskers would be eliminated from the race.  However, the the Black Shirt Defense re-emerged to knock the Wolverines out of the race, and now this game should decide it all.

 

Michigan St. benefits from an extra week of preparation, and Coach Mark Dantonio should have his Spartans prepared to win on the road.  If Michigan St. continues to play with the same enthusiasm, confidence, and poise that it has in recent weeks, this Spartan team is more than capable of winning at Lincoln and knocking off Ohio St. in the Big Ten title game.

 

Michigan (2-3/6-3) at Northwestern (0-5/4-5)

Six weeks ago, this looked like a pivotal game in the Legends Division race.  Today it is pivotal for Northwestern.  The Wildcats began the season 4-0, and in game five, they were in contention to beat Ohio St. before some late shenanigans cost them the game.  NU never recovered, and the losing streak has extended to five straight.  If this one is the sixth, then you can stick a fork in their bowl chances.

 

Michigan is bowl eligible, but the Wolverines expected more.  Short of upsetting Ohio St., this can only be a major disappointment.  UM has not returned to the top like most fans expected they would under Brady Hoke.  The once unstoppable ground game is now laughable, and a loss Saturday might be enough for the fans to start calling for the hook on Hoke.

 

Baylor (5-0/8-0) vs. Texas Tech (4-3/7-3) at Arlington, TX

Baylor needs to jump three teams in the BCS standings to make it to the National Championship Game, but we cannot see that happening.  Chances are better that the Bears will lose a game rather than win out, and a loss could drop them all the way to the Cotton Bowl.

 

This game at one time might have given the Bears a chance to move ahead of a Stanford or Ohio St. in the standings, but Texas Tech has dropped three games in a row.  Still, this is a must-win for BU.  They need a USC upset of Stanford, an Ohio St. loss to Michigan St. in the Big Ten Championship Game, and then a monumental upset of either Florida St. or Alabama.  Assuming Baylor can run the table, the chances for the rest of the dominoes to fall are about 5%.

 

 

Big 12

Oklahoma St. (5-1/8-1) at Texas (6-0/7-2)

Texas was given up for dead after being embarrassed in consecutive games with Ole Miss and BYU.  However, these were not league games, and the Longhorns have righted the ship with a 6-0 league mark.

 

Oklahoma St. has not been a juggernaut like recent editions, but the Cowboys too have appeared to have gotten on track.

 

The winner of this game becomes Baylor’s competition for the conference championship.  The Bears must still play both teams, and the winner of this game will earn the Fiesta Bowl bid if they can also beat the Bears.

 

It appears to us that if either Fresno St. or Northern Illinois automatically qualifies for a BCS Bowl bid, the Big 12 will place just one team in BCS Bowls, and the runner-up will have to settle for some cotton.

 

 

Pac-12

Washington (3-3/6-3) at UCLA (4-2/7-2)

The Huskies are playing for bowl status, hoping to stay ahead of most of the Pac-12 South teams, and a win here keeps them in contention for the Holiday Bowl.

 

UCLA is in a heated battle with USC and Arizona St. for the South Division flag.  A loss here will be devastating.  The Bruins must still play both ASU and USC.  All of a sudden, Rose Bowl aspirations look so much easier than they did a week ago.

 

Stanford (6-1/8-1) at USC (4-2/7-3)

Any football fan can see that the Cardinal are riding into an ambush in a major trap game.  Southern Cal is loose with nothing to lose, while Stanford must win to stay ahead of Oregon in the North Division.

 

USC is still very much alive in the Pac-12 South race.  The Trojans are 4-1 since Lane Kiffin was let go, and that one loss was a narrow one at Notre Dame.  If USC wins this game, interim coach Ed Orgeron might actually move to the top of the list in the search for the next full-time coach.  Coach O can recruit with the best of them, so it isn’t impossible.

 

Of course, a loss here coupled with a loss to UCLA, and Coach O will be on the go.

 

Oregon St. (4-2/6-3) at Arizona St. (5-1/7-2)

Arizona St. narrowly escaped the upset bug at Utah Saturday night, while Oregon St. benefitted by having a week off to try to regroup.  This leads to this game becoming much tighter and more competitive.

 

Arizona St. controls its own destiny as the South Division leader, but the Sun Devils have tough games left to play at UCLA and at home against rival Arizona.  Of course, ASU holds the tiebreaker over USC if the two finish tied.  Lane Kiffin can tell you that.

 

SEC

Georgia (4-2/6-3) at Auburn (5-1/9-1)

My how the season has shifted!  Two months ago, this game looked like a pivotal November contest for Georgia.  Now, it is the other way around.  Auburn has a decent shot at earning a BCS Bowl.  If the Tigers win this week and then give Alabama a competitive game, Auburn looks like a shoo-in for either the Sugar or Orange Bowl, assuming Alabama runs the table.

 

Georgia is trying to avoid having to play in December during bowl season.  A win on the plains will give them a major leg up for the Gator, Outback, or Cotton Bowl.  A loss puts the Bulldogs in danger of falling below the Gator Bowl.  Since Clemson is likely to be invited to Atlanta, Georgia will be skipped for the Chick-fil-A bowl and fall all the way to Nashville if they fail to beat Georgia Tech.

 

Florida (3-4/4-5) at South Carolina (5-2/7-2)

This is a crucial game for both teams.  South Carolina becomes the leader in the clubhouse with a win in this conference finale.  The Gamecocks are the only impediment in Missouri’s way to the East Division title.  If the two finish tied for first, USC wins the tiebreaker.  Even if Missouri wins out, South Carolina needs a 10-2 finish to have a shot at the Capital One or Cotton Bowl.

 

As for Florida, this is the end of the road if they lose.  The Gators must win this week to have a shot at bowl eligibility.  They could upset Florida St. in the finale.  That “could” is not much different than saying you “could” win the Megamillions lottery this week.

 

If The Gators finish 5-7, Coach Will Muschamp will need a lot of generosity to retain his job in a state where Florida St., Miami, and Central Florida are improving and getting some great in-state recruits.

 

MAC

Ohio (3-2/6-3) at Bowling Green (4-1/6-3)

BGU remains alive in the MAC East hunt, while only a miracle could give Ohio the division title.  This game is more important in bowl implications.  The MAC has three guaranteed bowl bids, but there will be as many as seven bowl eligible teams.  The loser of this game more than likely falls out of the race for the three guaranteed spots and has to begin sweating it as an at-large candidate

 

Buffalo (5-0/7-2) at Toledo (4-1/6-3)

This could be the first of two times these teams face off.  Buffalo is in the driver’s seat in the MAC East, and they Bulls host Bowling Green in a couple weeks.  A BU win in this game basically eliminates Ohio from the MAC East race.

 

Toledo is the third place team in the MAC West as of today, but a win here allows the rockets to host Northern Illinois with the division title up for grabs.  TU is tough to beat at the glass bowl, and they are getting better every week.  This should be a great one to watch midweek.

 

Ball St. (6-0/9-1) at Northern Illinois (5-0/9-0)

Make no bones about it, this is the key MAC game of the year.  The winner goes into undisputed first place in the West, and if the Huskies win, they stay alive for a second consecutive BCS Bowl invitation.

 

These two teams have enough talent to beat teams like Georgia, Texas Tech, Michigan, and Arizona this year, but they are not in the class of teams like Auburn, Michigan St., Oklahoma St., and Stanford.

 

If Ball St. wins, the Cardinals help out the big conferences while virtually assuring that they will be the MAC West champs.  You want to watch this one for sure.

 

 

MWC

Fresno St. has a week off, and thus, there are no real key games in the league.  The Bulldogs wiped Wyoming off the field in Laramie after spotting the Cowboys a 10-0 lead.  FSU closes with New Mexico at home and San Jose St. on the road, two games that should not be much of a challenge.  A possible rematch with Boise St. in the conference championship appears to be the only hurdle this team needs to topple before punching a ticket to the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl.

 

CUSA

This is a calm week for this league.  In the east, East Carolina gets an easy one against UAB, and Marshall plays at a wounded Tulsa team headed nowhere.

 

In the West, North Texas is in the driver’s seat.  The Mean Green have an off week before hosting UTSA and finishing at Tulsa.  Coach Dan McCarney’s name will be bantered about when bigger schools look to fill coaching vacancies next month.

 

SBC

UL-Lafayette has been close in recent years, but 2013 looks like the year they win the SBC title.  The Ragin’ Cajuns should run roughshod over winless Georgia St. this week, and then they will have an extra week to prepare for the conference clincher when they host UL-Monroe on November 30.

 

Texas St. (2-2/6-3) at Arkansas St. (3-1/5-4)

This game serves as a sort of playoff game for the league’s second bowl bid.  Texas St. is already bowl eligible, but they need this win to guarantee that second bid.  The Bobcats could still get an at-large invitation as long as they win one more game.

 

Arkansas St, still has some work to do to guarantee a bowl bid.  A win here coupled with a win over what should be 0-10 Georgia St. next week, will do the trick.  It really does not matter if ASU finished behind Western Kentucky, because the Hilltoppers will most likely be shunned when the league places its teams in bowls.  WKU is leaving the league, and the SBC punished an eight-win Middle Tennessee team last year for the same reason.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

1

Alabama

137.6

2

Oregon

134.0

3

Florida St.

133.6

4

Baylor

129.7

5

Ohio St.

128.2

6

Stanford

127.8

7

Missouri

123.8

8

Arizona St.

123.4

9

L S U

122.6

10

Texas A&M

121.5

11

Oklahoma St.

121.4

12

Washington

121.0

13

Wisconsin

120.6

14

Clemson

120.2

15

South Carolina

119.6

16

Auburn

119.0

17

Michigan St.

118.9

18

Ole Miss

118.9

19

Texas

118.0

20

U C L A

117.3

21

U S C

116.6

22

Oregon St.

116.0

23

Georgia

115.1

24

Louisville

114.8

25

Oklahoma

114.7

26

Kansas St.

114.6

27

B Y U

114.6

28

Arizona

114.5

29

Miami

113.1

30

Nebraska

112.9

31

Georgia Tech

112.1

32

Florida

111.9

33

Michigan

111.7

34

Notre Dame

110.7

35

Virginia Tech

109.7

36

Utah

109.0

37

Central Florida

108.6

38

Northwestern

108.6

39

Texas Tech

108.3

40

Vanderbilt

107.9

41

Mississippi St.

107.1

42

Iowa

106.8

43

Fresno St.

106.7

44

North Carolina

106.5

45

Minnesota

106.4

46

T C U

106.1

47

Boise St.

105.2

48

Utah St.

105.1

49

Indiana

104.7

50

East Carolina

104.5

51

Penn St.

104.1

52

Cincinnati

103.9

53

Northern Illinois

103.3

54

West Virginia

103.0

55

Duke

102.6

56

Tennessee

102.2

57

Houston

102.0

58

Washington St.

101.9

59

Ball St.

101.2

60

Bowling Green

101.2

61

Boston College

101.1

62

Syracuse

100.9

63

Pittsburgh

100.9

64

Buffalo

100.5

65

Toledo

100.4

66

Marshall

100.4

67

North Texas

99.7

68

Kentucky

98.5

69

Wake Forest

98.3

70

Illinois

97.0

71

Colorado St.

96.3

72

Rice

96.2

73

Rutgers

95.9

74

Arkansas

95.9

75

San Jose St.

95.8

76

Louisiana–Lafayette

95.4

77

Navy

95.3

78

Maryland

95.2

79

S M U

94.8

80

San Diego St.

93.7

81

Iowa St.

93.3

82

Arkansas St.

93.0

83

Ohio

92.6

84

Kansas

92.1

85

California

91.6

86

North Carolina St.

91.4

87

U T S A

90.4

88

Memphis

89.9

89

Western Kentucky

89.6

90

Virginia

89.1

91

Florida Atlantic

89.0

92

Middle Tennessee

88.4

93

South Florida

87.8

94

Colorado

87.8

95

Tulane

87.5

96

South Alabama

87.4

97

U N L V

87.2

98

Purdue

87.2

99

Temple

87.1

100

Tulsa

86.2

101

Louisiana–Monroe

86.1

102

Kent St.

86.0

103

Nevada

85.9

104

Wyoming

85.6

105

Connecticut

83.8

106

Troy

83.3

107

Akron

83.3

108

Hawaii

83.0

109

Central Michigan

82.7

110

Texas St.

82.3

111

Army

82.0

112

Louisiana Tech

81.3

113

New Mexico

81.3

114

U A B

79.3

115

Air Force

79.3

116

U T E P

78.1

117

Western Michigan

75.3

118

New Mexico St.

72.7

119

Massachusetts

72.3

120

Miami (O)

71.6

121

Eastern Michigan

71.1

122

Idaho

68.1

123

Southern Miss.

67.6

124

Florida Int’l

66.9

125

Georgia St.

63.3

 

 

PiRate Mean

1

Florida St.

137.8

2

Alabama

134.1

3

Oregon

130.5

4

Ohio St.

127.2

5

Arizona St.

123.0

6

Baylor

122.8

7

Missouri

122.0

8

Clemson

121.5

9

Wisconsin

121.3

10

Stanford

120.6

11

L S U

120.4

12

Michigan St.

119.6

13

Texas A&M

119.3

14

Auburn

118.7

15

South Carolina

117.1

16

Washington

117.1

17

Ole Miss

115.9

18

Miami

114.3

19

Louisville

113.6

20

U S C

113.5

21

B Y U

113.4

22

Oklahoma St.

113.2

23

U C L A

112.5

24

Georgia

112.5

25

Central Florida

111.9

26

Michigan

111.7

27

Georgia Tech

111.6

28

Nebraska

111.2

29

Arizona

110.8

30

Virginia Tech

110.2

31

Texas

109.9

32

Oklahoma

109.9

33

Houston

109.4

34

Florida

108.9

35

Notre Dame

108.6

36

North Carolina

108.4

37

Oregon St.

108.1

38

Kansas St.

107.4

39

Utah

106.8

40

Minnesota

106.6

41

Indiana

106.6

42

Fresno St.

106.4

43

East Carolina

106.3

44

Northwestern

106.2

45

Iowa

106.0

46

Northern Illinois

105.6

47

Vanderbilt

105.4

48

Penn St.

104.9

49

Ball St.

104.8

50

Mississippi St.

104.4

51

Marshall

103.9

52

Duke

103.8

53

Cincinnati

103.8

54

Texas Tech

103.8

55

Utah St.

103.3

56

Buffalo

102.9

57

North Texas

102.4

58

Toledo

102.3

59

Boise St.

101.9

60

Bowling Green

101.8

61

Boston College

101.7

62

Washington St.

101.1

63

Tennessee

101.1

64

Wake Forest

101.1

65

Syracuse

100.7

66

T C U

100.5

67

Pittsburgh

99.9

68

Rutgers

98.9

69

Rice

98.8

70

Illinois

98.8

71

Maryland

98.7

72

Arkansas

98.3

73

Kentucky

98.1

74

Louisiana–Lafayette

96.9

75

Navy

96.8

76

S M U

96.5

77

Colorado St.

96.3

78

Ohio

96.2

79

West Virginia

96.1

80

Memphis

95.4

81

North Carolina St.

95.3

82

San Jose St.

93.4

83

Middle Tennessee

93.2

84

San Diego St.

92.7

85

U T S A

92.4

86

Western Kentucky

91.9

87

Arkansas St.

91.2

88

Tulane

90.9

89

Virginia

90.8

90

Florida Atlantic

90.5

91

South Alabama

90.5

92

U N L V

88.8

93

Colorado

88.6

94

Temple

88.5

95

Kent St.

88.5

96

Kansas

87.9

97

Texas St.

87.9

98

Nevada

87.5

99

Army

87.5

100

California

87.3

101

Akron

87.0

102

Louisiana–Monroe

86.9

103

Wyoming

86.7

104

Troy

85.9

105

Central Michigan

85.4

106

Tulsa

85.4

107

Iowa St.

85.2

108

New Mexico

85.0

109

Purdue

84.7

110

South Florida

84.4

111

Louisiana Tech

83.6

112

Hawaii

83.2

113

Air Force

82.7

114

U A B

80.4

115

Connecticut

80.1

116

U T E P

79.9

117

Massachusetts

77.3

118

Western Michigan

76.8

119

New Mexico St.

75.8

120

Miami (O)

74.9

121

Eastern Michigan

73.7

122

Idaho

72.0

123

Florida Int’l

69.2

124

Georgia St.

69.2

125

Southern Miss.

67.6

 

 

PiRate Bias

1

Alabama

138.9

2

Florida St.

135.6

3

Oregon

134.9

4

Baylor

131.6

5

Ohio St.

128.4

6

Stanford

127.3

7

Arizona St.

123.3

8

Missouri

123.2

9

L S U

123.1

10

Wisconsin

121.7

11

Oklahoma St.

121.4

12

Texas A&M

121.3

13

Clemson

121.3

14

Washington

120.8

15

Auburn

119.1

16

South Carolina

118.7

17

Michigan St.

118.3

18

Ole Miss

118.2

19

Texas

116.9

20

U S C

116.5

21

U C L A

115.9

22

B Y U

115.6

23

Louisville

115.5

24

Georgia

114.6

25

Kansas St.

114.1

26

Oklahoma

114.0

27

Oregon St.

114.0

28

Miami

113.2

29

Arizona

112.8

30

Georgia Tech

112.2

31

Nebraska

111.9

32

Michigan

110.7

33

Florida

110.5

34

Central Florida

109.8

35

Virginia Tech

109.4

36

Notre Dame

109.0

37

Utah

108.8

38

Northwestern

108.4

39

Texas Tech

107.7

40

North Carolina

107.4

41

Vanderbilt

107.3

42

Iowa

107.1

43

Mississippi St.

106.9

44

Boise St.

106.6

45

Utah St.

106.6

46

Minnesota

106.4

47

Fresno St.

106.3

48

T C U

105.3

49

East Carolina

104.9

50

Indiana

104.3

51

Northern Illinois

103.9

52

Cincinnati

103.5

53

Houston

103.4

54

Penn St.

103.0

55

Washington St.

102.6

56

Ball St.

102.4

57

West Virginia

102.3

58

Duke

102.1

59

Buffalo

102.1

60

Boston College

102.0

61

Marshall

101.7

62

Bowling Green

101.7

63

Toledo

101.4

64

Tennessee

101.1

65

Pittsburgh

101.0

66

North Texas

100.9

67

Syracuse

100.3

68

Kentucky

99.1

69

Wake Forest

98.8

70

Colorado St.

97.2

71

Rice

96.5

72

Illinois

96.5

73

Maryland

96.3

74

San Jose St.

96.2

75

Rutgers

96.0

76

Louisiana–Lafayette

95.9

77

Navy

95.4

78

Arkansas

94.7

79

San Diego St.

94.2

80

S M U

94.1

81

Ohio

93.2

82

Arkansas St.

92.8

83

North Carolina St.

92.1

84

Iowa St.

92.1

85

Kansas

91.4

86

Memphis

90.4

87

U T S A

90.2

88

California

90.0

89

Florida Atlantic

89.8

90

Western Kentucky

89.7

91

Middle Tennessee

89.4

92

Virginia

89.1

93

South Alabama

88.1

94

Tulane

87.9

95

U N L V

87.8

96

South Florida

87.5

97

Temple

86.8

98

Kent St.

86.4

99

Wyoming

86.3

100

Louisiana–Monroe

86.1

101

Nevada

85.9

102

Colorado

85.9

103

Tulsa

85.2

104

Purdue

84.7

105

Troy

84.3

106

Akron

84.1

107

Hawaii

83.6

108

Connecticut

83.4

109

Army

83.4

110

Texas St.

82.8

111

Central Michigan

82.2

112

New Mexico

81.9

113

Louisiana Tech

81.0

114

Air Force

79.1

115

U A B

78.6

116

U T E P

76.8

117

Western Michigan

75.3

118

New Mexico St.

72.6

119

Massachusetts

72.0

120

Eastern Michigan

70.0

121

Miami (O)

70.0

122

Idaho

67.9

123

Florida Int’l

67.0

124

Southern Miss.

66.8

125

Georgia St.

64.4

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

4-1

8-1

114.8

113.6

115.5

Central Florida

4-0

7-1

108.6

111.9

109.8

Cincinnati

4-1

7-2

103.9

103.8

103.5

Houston

4-1

7-2

102.0

109.4

103.4

Rutgers

2-2

5-3

95.9

98.9

96.0

S M U

2-2

3-5

94.8

96.5

94.1

Memphis

0-4

2-6

89.9

95.4

90.4

South Florida

2-2

2-6

87.8

84.4

87.5

Temple

0-5

1-8

87.1

88.5

86.8

Connecticut

0-4

0-8

83.8

80.1

83.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

96.9

98.3

97.0

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida St.

7-0

9-0

133.6

137.8

135.6

Clemson

6-1

8-1

120.2

121.5

121.3

Boston College

2-3

5-4

101.1

101.7

102.0

Syracuse

3-2

5-4

100.9

100.7

100.3

Wake Forest

2-5

4-6

98.3

101.1

98.8

Maryland

1-4

5-4

95.2

98.7

96.3

North Carolina St.

0-6

3-6

91.4

95.3

92.1

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami

3-2

7-2

113.1

114.3

113.2

Georgia Tech

5-2

6-3

112.1

111.6

112.2

Virginia Tech

4-2

7-3

109.7

110.2

109.4

North Carolina

3-3

4-5

106.5

108.4

107.4

Duke

3-2

7-2

102.6

103.8

102.1

Pittsburgh

2-3

5-4

100.9

99.9

101.0

Virginia

0-6

2-8

89.1

90.8

89.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.3

106.8

105.8

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baylor

5-0

8-0

129.7

122.8

131.6

Oklahoma St.

5-1

8-1

121.4

113.2

121.4

Texas

6-0

7-2

118.0

109.9

116.9

Oklahoma

4-2

7-2

114.7

109.9

114.0

Kansas St.

3-3

5-4

114.6

107.4

114.1

Texas Tech

4-3

7-3

108.3

103.8

107.7

T C U

2-5

4-6

106.1

100.5

105.3

West Virginia

2-5

4-6

103.0

96.1

102.3

Iowa St.

0-6

1-8

93.3

85.2

92.1

Kansas

0-6

2-7

92.1

87.9

91.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

110.1

103.7

109.7

 

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

5-0

9-0

128.2

127.2

128.4

Wisconsin

4-1

7-2

120.6

121.3

121.7

Indiana

2-3

4-5

104.7

106.6

104.3

Penn St.

2-3

5-4

104.1

104.9

103.0

Illinois

0-5

3-6

97.0

98.8

96.5

Purdue

0-5

1-8

87.2

84.7

84.7

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

5-0

8-1

118.9

119.6

118.3

Nebraska

4-1

7-2

112.9

111.2

111.9

Michigan

2-3

6-3

111.7

111.7

110.7

Northwestern

0-5

4-5

108.6

106.2

108.4

Iowa

3-3

6-4

106.8

106.0

107.1

Minnesota

4-2

8-2

106.4

106.6

106.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

108.9

108.7

108.5

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

East Carolina

5-1

7-2

104.5

106.3

104.9

Marshall

4-1

6-3

100.4

103.9

101.7

Florida Atlantic

2-4

3-6

89.0

90.5

89.8

Middle Tennessee

4-2

6-4

88.4

93.2

89.4

U A B

1-4

2-7

79.3

80.4

78.6

Southern Miss.

0-5

0-9

67.6

67.6

66.8

Florida Int’l

1-4

1-8

66.9

69.2

67.0

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

North Texas

5-1

7-3

99.7

102.4

100.9

Rice

4-1

6-3

96.2

98.8

96.5

U T S A

4-2

5-5

90.4

92.4

90.2

Tulane

4-2

6-4

87.5

90.9

87.9

Tulsa

1-4

2-7

86.2

85.4

85.2

Louisiana Tech

3-2

4-5

81.3

83.6

81.0

U T E P

0-5

1-8

78.1

79.9

76.8

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

86.8

88.9

86.9

 

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

B Y U

 

6-3

114.6

113.4

115.6

Notre Dame

 

7-3

110.7

108.6

109.0

Navy

 

5-4

95.3

96.8

95.4

Army

 

3-7

82.0

87.5

83.4

Idaho

 

1-9

68.1

72.0

67.9

New Mexico St.

 

1-9

72.7

75.8

72.6

     

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

90.6

92.4

90.7

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

4-1

6-3

101.2

101.8

101.7

Buffalo

5-0

7-2

100.5

102.9

102.1

Ohio

3-2

6-3

92.6

96.2

93.2

Kent St.

1-5

2-8

86.0

88.5

86.4

Akron

2-4

3-7

83.3

87.0

84.1

Massachusetts

1-4

1-8

72.3

77.3

72.0

Miami (O)

0-5

0-9

71.6

74.9

70.0

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Northern Illinois

5-0

9-0

103.3

105.6

103.9

Ball St.

6-0

9-1

101.2

104.8

102.4

Toledo

4-1

6-3

100.4

102.3

101.4

Central Michigan

2-3

3-6

82.7

85.4

82.2

Western Michigan

1-5

1-9

75.3

76.8

75.3

Eastern Michigan

1-5

2-8

71.1

73.7

70.0

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.8

90.6

88.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Boise St.

4-1

6-3

105.2

101.9

106.6

Utah St.

5-1

6-4

105.1

103.3

106.6

Colorado St.

3-2

5-5

96.3

96.3

97.2

Wyoming

2-3

4-5

85.6

86.7

86.3

New Mexico

1-4

3-6

81.3

85.0

81.9

Air Force

0-6

2-8

79.3

82.7

79.1

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

6-0

9-0

106.7

106.4

106.3

San Jose St.

4-2

5-4

95.8

93.4

96.2

San Diego St.

4-1

5-4

93.7

92.7

94.2

U N L V

3-3

5-5

87.2

88.8

87.8

Nevada

2-5

3-7

85.9

87.5

85.9

Hawaii

0-6

0-9

83.0

83.2

83.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

83.3

83.8

83.8

 

 

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon

5-1

8-1

134.0

130.5

134.9

Stanford

6-1

8-1

127.8

120.6

127.3

Washington

3-3

6-3

121.0

117.1

120.8

Oregon St.

4-2

6-3

116.0

108.1

114.0

Washington St.

2-4

4-5

101.9

101.1

102.6

California

0-7

1-9

91.6

87.3

90.0

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona St.

5-1

7-2

123.4

123.0

123.3

U C L A

4-2

7-2

117.3

112.5

115.9

U S C

4-2

7-3

116.6

113.5

116.5

Arizona

3-3

6-3

114.5

110.8

112.8

Utah

1-5

4-5

109.0

106.8

108.8

Colorado

0-6

3-6

87.8

88.6

85.9

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.4

110.0

112.7

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Missouri

5-1

9-1

123.8

122.0

123.2

South Carolina

5-2

7-2

119.6

117.1

118.7

Georgia

4-2

6-3

115.1

112.5

114.6

Florida

3-4

4-5

111.9

108.9

110.5

Vanderbilt

2-4

5-4

107.9

105.4

107.3

Tennessee

1-5

4-6

102.2

101.1

101.1

Kentucky

0-5

2-7

98.5

98.1

99.1

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

6-0

9-0

137.6

134.1

138.9

L S U

3-3

7-3

122.6

120.4

123.1

Texas A&M

4-2

8-2

121.5

119.3

121.3

Auburn

5-1

9-1

119.0

118.7

119.1

Ole Miss

3-3

6-3

118.9

115.9

118.2

Mississippi St.

1-4

4-5

107.1

104.4

106.9

Arkansas

0-6

3-7

95.9

98.3

94.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.4

112.6

114.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana–Lafayette

4-0

7-2

95.4

96.9

95.9

Arkansas St.

3-1

5-4

93.0

91.2

92.8

Western Kentucky

2-3

6-4

89.6

91.9

89.7

South Alabama

1-3

3-5

87.4

90.5

88.1

Louisiana–Monroe

3-2

5-5

86.1

86.9

86.1

Troy

3-3

5-5

83.3

85.9

84.3

Texas St.

2-2

6-3

82.3

87.9

82.8

Georgia St.

0-4

0-9

63.3

69.2

64.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

85.1

87.6

85.5

 

 

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Old Dominion

 

7-3

85.2

86.7

91.5

Georgia Southern

 

5-3

82.6

85.0

89.7

Appalachian St.

 

1-8

73.1

72.0

79.8

Charlotte

 

4-6

57.2

61.8

64.3

           
Not figured in regular averages to 100

74.5

76.4

81.3

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green Ohio

10.6

7.6

10.5

Toledo Buffalo

2.9

2.4

2.3

Northern Illinois Ball St.

5.1

3.8

4.5

Kent St. Miami (O)

16.4

15.6

18.4

Clemson Georgia Tech

11.1

12.9

12.1

Tulsa Marshall

-11.2

-15.5

-13.5

U C L A Washington

-0.7

-1.6

-1.9

Mississippi St. Alabama

-27.5

-26.7

-29.0

Auburn Georgia

6.9

9.2

7.5

South Carolina Florida

10.7

11.2

11.2

Illinois Ohio St.

-28.2

-25.4

-28.9

Oklahoma Iowa St.

24.4

27.7

24.9

Temple Central Florida

-19.0

-20.9

-20.5

Wisconsin Indiana

18.9

17.7

20.4

Ole Miss Troy

38.6

33.0

36.9

Rutgers Cincinnati

-5.0

-1.9

-4.5

Penn St. Purdue

19.9

23.2

21.3

Kansas West Virginia

-7.9

-5.2

-7.9

Western Michigan Central Michigan

-5.4

-6.6

-4.9

Vanderbilt Kentucky

11.4

9.3

10.2

Boston College North Carolina St.

12.7

9.4

12.9

Pittsburgh North Carolina

-2.6

-5.5

-3.4

Virginia Tech Maryland

17.5

14.5

16.1

Southern Miss. Florida Atlantic

-18.9

-20.4

-20.5

Massachusetts Akron

-9.0

-7.7

-10.1

Arizona Washington St.

15.6

12.7

13.2

East Carolina U A B

28.2

28.9

29.3

Georgia St. UL-Lafayette

-30.1

-25.7

-29.5

S M U Connecticut

14.0

19.4

13.7

Florida St. Syracuse

35.7

40.1

38.3

Duke Miami

-7.5

-7.5

-8.1

Texas Oklahoma St.

-0.4

-0.3

-1.5

Nebraska Michigan St.

-3.0

-5.4

-3.4

Northwestern Michigan

-0.1

-2.5

0.7

Kansas St. T C U

11.5

9.9

11.8

Navy South Alabama

10.9

9.3

10.3

Oregon Utah

28.0

26.7

29.1

Colorado California

-0.8

4.3

-1.1

Baylor (Arlington,TX) Texas Tech

21.4

19.0

23.9

Louisville Houston

15.8

7.2

15.1

South Florida Memphis

0.9

-8.0

0.1

New Mexico Colorado St.

-12.0

-8.3

-12.3

Rice Louisiana Tech

17.9

18.2

18.5

Arkansas St. Texas St.

13.7

6.3

13.0

U S C Stanford

-8.2

-4.1

-7.8

U T E P Florida Int’l

14.2

13.7

12.8

Arizona St. Oregon St.

10.4

17.9

12.3

Boise St. Wyoming

22.6

18.2

23.3

Hawaii San Diego St.

-6.7

-5.5

-6.6

Nevada San Jose St.

-6.9

-2.9

-7.3

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Rating Bowl Projections

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

Colorado St.

vs.

Oregon St.

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Boise St.

vs.

Washington

Famous Idaho Potato

U N L V

vs.

Ball St.

New Orleans

UL-Lafayette

vs.

Tulane

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

Western Kentucky *

vs.

Marshall

Hawai’i

San Jose St.

vs.

Middle Tennessee

Little Caesars Pizza

Toledo

vs.

Texas St. *

Poinsettia

Utah St.

vs.

Bowling Green *

Military Bowl

Syracuse

vs.

East Carolina

Texas

Iowa

vs.

Texas Tech

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Arizona

vs.

B Y U #

Pinstripe

Rutgers

vs.

West Virginia

Belk

Houston

vs.

North Carolina

Russell Athletic

Louisville

vs.

Virginia Tech

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Oklahoma

vs.

Michigan

Armed Forces

San Diego St.

vs.

Navy

Music City

Georgia Tech

vs.

Ole Miss

Alamo

Texas

vs.

U S C

Holiday

Kansas St.

vs.

U C L A

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

Ohio *

vs.

Duke

Sun

Miami

vs.

Arizona St.

Liberty

Vanderbilt

vs.

North Texas

Chick-fil-A

Clemson

vs.

L S U

Heart Of Dallas

Rice

vs.

Notre Dame *

Gator

Minnesota

vs.

Georgia

Outback

South Carolina

vs.

Nebraska

Capital One

Wisconsin

vs.

Missouri

Rose

Michigan St.

vs.

Stanford

Fiesta

Oklahoma St.

vs.

Central Florida

Sugar

Ohio St.

vs.

Fresno St.

Cotton

Texas A&M

vs.

Baylor

Orange

Auburn

vs.

Oregon

BBVA Compass Bowl

Cincinnati

vs.

Maryland *

GoDaddy.com

Arkansas St.

vs.

Northern Illinois

BCS Championship

Alabama

vs.

Florida St.

 

 

 

 

* At-Large Selection

 

 

 

# Already Accepted Bid

 

 

 

 

October 28, 2013

PiRate Ratings–College Football: October 30-November 2, 2013

Bowl Picture Starting To Get Clearer

As of today, October 28, 2013, the PiRate Ratings staff believes that about 76 or 77 teams will become bowl eligible for the 70 bowl spots.  In this list, it looks like a strong possibility that every seven-win team eligible for postseason play will earn a bowl bid, as six or seven six-win teams will miss out.

 

Here is our breakdown by conference on the bowl projections.

 

AAC: 6 Bowl Tie-ins – 5 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

With SMU, South Florida, and Memphis failing to win close crucial games this year, we believe this new league will come up one team short.

 

Central Florida has one major roadblock to overcome, but that game against Houston is at home.  If Houston upsets UCF, the Cougars will still have to win at Louisville to claim the automatic BCS berth.  We’re going with the Knights to win out.

 

Louisville could be 11-1 and do no better than the Russell Athletic Bowl.

 

1. BCS (Sugar): Central Florida

2. Russell Athletic: Louisville

3. Belk: Houston

4. Pinstripe: Rutgers (Scarlet Knights back to Yankee Stadium for 2nd time)

5. BBVA Compass: Cincinnati (check SEC opponent for human interest)

6. Beef O’Brady’s: No Team Available

 

ACC: 8 Bowl Tie-ins (plus a secondary 9th bid) – 9 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Florida St. and Miami will most likely face off twice this year.  One of the rivals must win both games to have a chance to advance to the BCS National Championship Game, and still they will need help.

 

Clemson holds onto hopes for a BCS at-large bid, but if Miami and Florida St. split, the Tigers will do no better than Atlanta on New Year’s Eve.

 

Duke is bowl eligible for a second consecutive year.  Check out the unique bowl possibility we have for David Cutcliffe’s team when you read the SEC opponent scheduled to face the Blue Devils in our bowl projection.

 

1. BCS (Orange): Florida St.

2. Chick-fil-A: Clemson

3. Russell Athletic: Miami

4. Sun: Virginia Tech

5. Belk: Maryland

6. Music City: Duke

7. Advocare V100: Georgia Tech

8. Military: North Carolina (great comeback to 6-6)

Also Bowl Eligible: Syracuse at 6-6

 

Big 12: 7 Bowl Tie-Ins – 6 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Baylor becomes the heavy favorite now that Texas Tech has lost to Oklahoma, but Tech, OU, and Texas are still alive, and if Oklahoma St. can find a quarterback who can complete anything more than a screen pass, the Cowboys are still in the mix.

 

Until somebody knocks off Baylor, we will keep the Bears in the top spot.  As for Oklahoma, if the Sooners finish 10-2, we believe they will trump any other 10-2 team from other conferences except for Stanford and the number two SEC team.  A 10-2 Texas Tech team does not look as fortunate.

 

West Virginia and TCU have sunk below the bowl eligible line, and Kansas and Iowa St. are going nowhere, so if this league sends two teams to BCS bowls, there will be two bowl spots left unfilled for at-large teams elsewhere.

 

1. BCS (Fiesta): Baylor

2. BCS (Orange): Oklahoma

3. Cotton: Texas

4. Alamo: Texas Tech

5. Buffalo Wild Wings: Oklahoma St.

6. Holiday: Kansas St.

7. Texas: No Team Available

8. Pinstripe: No Team Available

 

Big Ten: 8 Bowl Tie-ins – 8 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Ohio St. can win out by an average of 45-0, and the Buckeyes will not make it to the BCS National Championship Game unless two of the powers ahead of them lose.  The Buckeyes could extend their winning streak to 26 games without having the opportunity to compete for a national championship.  Penn St. went 11-0 in 1968 and in 1969 and was in the same boat.

 

A lot of our fellow bowl projectionists have a second Big Ten team in the BCS, but we believe cannibalism from within the league will take the possible number two teams out of the picture.  Our best bet to sneak into the BCS as a league runner-up is Michigan St.  This league needs both Fresno St. and Northern Illinois to lose.

 

1. BCS (Rose): Ohio St.

2. Capital One: Michigan St.

3. Outback: Wisconsin

4. Gator: Michigan

5. Buffalo Wild Wings: Nebraska

6. Texas: Iowa

7. Heart of Dallas: Minnesota

8. Little Caesar’s Pizza: Indiana (first bid in 6 years and they may not like it so much)

 

C U S A: 6 Bowl Tie-ins – 6 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

This league is down quite a lot since most of the best teams defected to the AAC, and Tulsa is headed to a losing record.  It makes for a wide open race in both divisions.

 

In the East, the Marshall-East Carolina winner will most likely win the division.  The West is a lot more uncertain.  Tulane, Rice, and North Texas are in a hot race, and it is possible that all three could end up 7-1 in the league.

 

1. Liberty: Tulane

2. Heart of Dallas: Rice

3. Military: Marshall

4. Beef O’Brady’s: East Carolina

5. Hawaii: North Texas

6. New Orleans: Middle Tennessee

 

Independents: 3 Bowl Tie-ins + Notre Dame – 3 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Notre Dame does not appear to be in line for BCS bowl qualification, so the Fighting Irish will have to claim an at-large bid.

 

BYU and Navy have automatic tie-ins and will earn those invitations.  Army has an automatic tie-in but will not earn that invitation.

 

1. At-large (Pinstripe): Notre Dame (perfect spot for the Irish—Yankee Stadium

2. Armed Forces: Navy

3. Kraft Fight Hunger: B Y U

4. Poinsettia: No team (Army not bowl eligible)

 

M A C: 3 Bowl Tie-ins – 7 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Northern Illinois sits just one spot behind Fresno St. in the BCS rankings, and it is debatable whether wins over Ball St., Toledo, and the East Division title winner will be enough to prepare the Huskies over a Fresno St. team that wins out.

 

We are going to make an assumption that if Northern Illinois finishes 13-0 or 12-1, the MAC may try to shop the Huskies to a larger bowl in a backroom deal.  There will be more than enough league teams to fill the regular three bowl spots, and freeing NIU from the league’s top bowl bid might allow another bowl to end up with a much better matchup that promises extra press coverage.

 

1. Special Deal to Las Vegas Bowl: Northern Illinois

2. GoDaddy.com: Toledo

3. Little Caesar’s Pizza: Ball St. (to face in-state rival Indiana)

4. Famous Idaho Potato: Ohio

5. At-Large Selection to Poinsettia: Bowling Green

6. At-Large Selection to Texas: Buffalo

Also Eligible: Central Michigan

 

M W C: 6 Bowl Tie-ins – 6 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

If Fresno St. wins out and then wins the MWC Championship Game, it will be difficult for the Bulldogs not to qualify for a BCS Bowl.  Northern Illinois could possibly jump FSU, but it is not highly probable.

 

If Fresno St. qualifies for a BCS Bowl, then the Las Vegas Bowl would be faced with the possibility that Boise St. would be headed there for the fourth consecutive season.  We have included a special deal to bring Northern Illinois to Vegas, which will free a rebuilding Boise St. team to stay at home during bowl season.

 

A couple of MWC dark horse teams are in line for bowls this year.  Colorado St. looked very competitive against Alabama, and since then the Rams have turned the corner.  UNLV was picked to finish last in the West Division, and it was expected that this would be Coach Bobby Hauck’s last season in Vegas.  However, the Rebels are just one win away from bowl eligibility, and they will get that sixth win and probably a seventh.

 

1. BCS (Fiesta): Fresno St.

X. Las Vegas: Spot Dealt to Northern Illinois

2. Poinsettia: Utah St.

3. Armed Forces: U N L V

4. New Mexico: Colorado St.

5. Hawaii: San Jose St.

6. Famous Idaho Potato: Boise St.

 

Pac-12: 7 Bowl Tie-ins (plus a secondary 8th bid) – 10 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Oregon has a couple of tough games remaining, beginning with the big one against Stanford next Thursday evening.  The Ducks can score against any defense, but whether they can stop or slow down a top-rate power running team like Alabama is a major question.  Stanford is about two touchdowns weaker than ‘Bama, so it should offer a little preview of a possible national championship matchup.

 

The rest of the league will have a difficult time separating themselves from each other.  In the South Division, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona St., and even USC are still alive.  We are going with a tie on this side, and we believe Arizona has the best chance to emerge as the division representative in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

 

Washington St. may become bowl eligible for the first time since 2006, but like 2006, they could find themselves without a bowl bid.  The Cougars could join Utah as 6-6 teams having to wait for all the seven-win teams to be invited ahead of them.

 

1. BCS (National Championship): Oregon

2. BCS (Rose): Stanford

3. Alamo: UCLA

4. Holiday: Arizona

5. Sun: Oregon St.

6. Las Vegas: Arizona St.

7. Kraft Fight Hunger: Washington

8. New Mexico: USC

Also Eligible: Washington St., Utah

 

S E C: 10 Bowl Tie-ins – 11 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

There is actually a possibility that 12 teams will become bowl eligible, but we are sticking with 11 for now.  It is almost a metaphysical certitude that two league teams will earn trips to BCS bowls.

 

Alabama has won numerous national championships in the past, and in many of those years, the Crimson Tide started slowly and steadily improved as the season progressed.  This year, the Tide looked beatable earlier in the year, but since the Colorado St. game, the Tide has looked more like the 1995 Nebraska Cornhuskers.

 

And, who might be the second best team in the SEC at the present time?  How about the War Eagles?  Auburn coach Gus Malzahn may earn National Coach of The Year honors.

 

South Carolina’s big comeback win over Missouri after trailing 17-0 in the fourth quarter has given the Gamecocks a big chance to advance to their first ever SEC Championship Game.  If Florida beats Georgia this week and if Missouri loses to either Ole Miss or Texas A&M, and USC beats Mississippi St. and Florida, then Steve Spurrier’s club will win the East.  If USC, Mizzou, and Georgia finish tied at 6-2, then Missouri will win the tiebreaker.

 

A couple of interesting bowl possibilities have arisen in recent weeks.  Ole Miss could end up in Nashville against Duke, pitting Coach Cutcliffe against his old team.  Tennessee needs wins over Kentucky and Vanderbilt, or one of those two and Auburn, to get to six wins.  It is possible that Coach Butch Jones’ Vols could face Cincinnati, Jones’ old team.

 

1. BCS (National Championship Game): Alabama

2. BCS (Sugar): Auburn

3. Capital One: Texas A&M

4. Outback: South Carolina

5. Cotton: L S U

6. Chick-fil-A: Missouri

7. Gator: Florida

8. Music City: Ole Miss

9. Liberty: Georgia

10. BBVA Compass: Tennessee

11. Advocare V100: Vanderbilt

 

Sunbelt: 2 Bowl Tie-ins – 6 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

We are projecting six bowl-eligible teams here, but three of the teams are expected to finish 6-6 and have no chance of receiving invitations.  Of the remaining three expected to finish above .500, only two are guaranteed a bowl, but the third has an excellent chance of earning a semi-at-large bid.  This league has secondary agreements with a couple additional bowls, and we project one of those bowls will need an at-large team.

 

1. New Orleans: UL-Lafayette

2. GoDaddy.com: Troy

3. At-Large (Beef O’Brady’s): Texas St.

Also Eligible: Western Kentucky, Arkansas St., UL-Monroe

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

1

Alabama

137.1

2

Oregon

135.6

3

Florida St.

130.4

4

Baylor

128.2

5

Stanford

126.0

6

Ohio St.

125.7

7

L S U

123.0

8

Arizona St.

122.6

9

Missouri

122.1

10

Texas A&M

121.5

11

Ole Miss

120.0

12

Oklahoma St.

119.9

13

Wisconsin

119.9

14

Washington

119.7

15

South Carolina

119.5

16

Texas

119.4

17

Oregon St.

118.4

18

Clemson

117.8

19

U C L A

117.3

20

Miami

116.6

21

Michigan St.

116.5

22

Arizona

116.4

23

Florida

116.3

24

Oklahoma

115.8

25

Auburn

115.6

26

Louisville

115.5

27

B Y U

114.8

28

Michigan

114.7

29

Georgia

114.6

30

Notre Dame

113.8

31

U S C

112.7

32

Nebraska

112.6

33

Georgia Tech

112.4

34

Texas Tech

111.0

35

Kansas St.

110.7

36

Virginia Tech

109.4

37

Central Florida

108.9

38

T C U

108.8

39

Northwestern

108.3

40

Utah

108.0

41

Iowa

106.5

42

Mississippi St.

106.4

43

North Carolina

106.2

44

Vanderbilt

105.6

45

Tennessee

105.5

46

Penn St.

105.2

47

Minnesota

105.0

48

Boise St.

104.7

49

Indiana

104.7

50

Cincinnati

104.3

51

Utah St.

104.3

52

Fresno St.

104.0

53

Washington St.

103.7

54

East Carolina

103.4

55

Duke

102.4

56

Houston

102.0

57

Northern Illinois

101.6

58

Ball St.

101.1

59

Wake Forest

100.6

60

Boston College

100.6

61

West Virginia

100.1

62

Toledo

99.8

63

Bowling Green

99.8

64

Pittsburgh

99.1

65

Kentucky

99.1

66

Louisiana–Lafayette

99.0

67

Syracuse

99.0

68

Buffalo

97.8

69

Rice

97.4

70

North Texas

97.3

71

Marshall

97.0

72

Illinois

97.0

73

San Jose St.

96.8

74

Rutgers

96.4

75

Colorado St.

96.0

76

Maryland

95.9

77

Arkansas

95.2

78

Iowa St.

95.2

79

Ohio

94.7

80

S M U

94.2

81

Navy

93.9

82

San Diego St.

93.1

83

Virginia

92.4

84

Kansas

92.0

85

California

91.8

86

North Carolina St.

91.3

87

Tulsa

91.0

88

Arkansas St.

90.7

89

Purdue

90.5

90

Memphis

90.4

91

Western Kentucky

90.2

92

Tulane

88.6

93

Colorado

88.3

94

U T S A

87.7

95

Wyoming

87.7

96

Florida Atlantic

87.7

97

South Florida

87.5

98

South Alabama

87.5

99

Louisiana–Monroe

87.2

100

Kent St.

87.1

101

Nevada

86.8

102

U N L V

86.7

103

Temple

86.6

104

Middle Tennessee

86.0

105

Hawaii

84.3

106

Army

84.0

107

Troy

83.6

108

Connecticut

83.5

109

Central Michigan

82.8

110

Akron

82.2

111

Texas St.

81.9

112

U A B

81.5

113

U T E P

80.8

114

New Mexico

80.2

115

Louisiana Tech

79.5

116

Air Force

77.9

117

Western Michigan

75.5

118

Massachusetts

74.0

119

Miami (O)

73.0

120

Eastern Michigan

71.5

121

Southern Miss.

69.4

122

Idaho

69.1

123

New Mexico St.

69.1

124

Florida Int’l

68.8

125

Georgia St.

62.6

 

PiRate Mean

1

Florida St.

134.8

2

Alabama

133.3

3

Oregon

132.5

4

Ohio St.

124.5

5

Arizona St.

122.2

6

L S U

121.1

7

Baylor

121.0

8

Wisconsin

120.7

9

Missouri

119.9

10

Texas A&M

118.9

11

Clemson

118.8

12

Stanford

118.5

13

Miami

117.5

14

Michigan St.

117.3

15

South Carolina

117.0

16

Ole Miss

116.9

17

Washington

115.6

18

Auburn

114.9

19

Michigan

114.8

20

Louisville

114.6

21

B Y U

113.5

22

Florida

113.5

23

Arizona

113.2

24

Georgia

111.9

25

Central Florida

111.8

26

Notre Dame

111.6

27

U C L A

111.6

28

Georgia Tech

111.5

29

Houston

111.3

30

Oklahoma

111.3

31

Nebraska

111.0

32

Texas

110.9

33

Oklahoma St.

110.6

34

Oregon St.

110.0

35

U S C

110.0

36

Virginia Tech

109.9

37

North Carolina

107.9

38

Texas Tech

107.3

39

Indiana

107.0

40

Penn St.

106.3

41

Northwestern

105.9

42

Iowa

105.8

43

Utah

105.7

44

East Carolina

105.5

45

Ball St.

104.7

46

Tennessee

104.5

47

Minnesota

104.2

48

T C U

104.2

49

Wake Forest

104.1

50

Mississippi St.

103.6

51

Northern Illinois

103.5

52

Duke

103.4

53

Fresno St.

103.3

54

Kansas St.

103.2

55

Cincinnati

103.2

56

Washington St.

103.0

57

Vanderbilt

103.0

58

Utah St.

101.9

59

Toledo

101.3

60

Boston College

100.9

61

Boise St.

100.8

62

Marshall

100.8

63

Rice

100.3

64

Louisiana–Lafayette

100.3

65

Bowling Green

100.2

66

Buffalo

100.1

67

Maryland

99.9

68

Rutgers

99.9

69

North Texas

99.6

70

Illinois

98.9

71

Kentucky

98.9

72

Pittsburgh

98.5

73

Ohio

98.5

74

Arkansas

98.3

75

Syracuse

97.4

76

S M U

96.3

77

Colorado St.

96.3

78

Memphis

96.3

79

Navy

95.7

80

North Carolina St.

95.4

81

Virginia

94.4

82

San Jose St.

93.8

83

West Virginia

92.6

84

Tulane

92.0

85

San Diego St.

91.9

86

Western Kentucky

91.8

87

South Alabama

91.3

88

Middle Tennessee

91.1

89

Army

90.1

90

Tulsa

89.9

91

Colorado

89.9

92

U T S A

89.8

93

Kent St.

89.6

94

Florida Atlantic

89.3

95

U N L V

89.1

96

Wyoming

89.0

97

Nevada

88.9

98

Kansas

88.7

99

Louisiana–Monroe

87.9

100

Purdue

87.9

101

Arkansas St.

87.9

102

Temple

87.5

103

California

87.4

104

Texas St.

87.4

105

Iowa St.

86.8

106

Troy

86.7

107

Akron

85.9

108

Central Michigan

85.5

109

Hawaii

84.7

110

New Mexico

84.1

111

U T E P

83.2

112

South Florida

82.6

113

U A B

82.3

114

Louisiana Tech

81.9

115

Air Force

80.9

116

Connecticut

79.5

117

Massachusetts

79.4

118

Western Michigan

76.9

119

Miami (O)

76.5

120

Eastern Michigan

74.6

121

Idaho

73.8

122

New Mexico St.

72.4

123

Florida Int’l

70.8

124

Southern Miss.

69.1

125

Georgia St.

69.0

 

 

PiRate Bias

1

Alabama

138.2

2

Oregon

136.8

3

Florida St.

132.4

4

Baylor

130.1

5

Ohio St.

125.9

6

Stanford

125.3

7

L S U

123.7

8

Arizona St.

122.6

9

Missouri

121.3

10

Texas A&M

121.3

11

Wisconsin

120.8

12

Ole Miss

119.6

13

Oklahoma St.

119.5

14

Washington

119.4

15

Texas

118.6

16

South Carolina

118.6

17

Clemson

118.5

18

Miami

116.9

19

Oregon St.

116.6

20

Louisville

116.5

21

B Y U

115.8

22

Auburn

115.8

23

U C L A

115.8

24

Michigan St.

115.5

25

Arizona

115.3

26

Oklahoma

115.1

27

Florida

115.0

28

Michigan

114.3

29

Georgia

113.7

30

Georgia Tech

112.6

31

Notre Dame

112.4

32

U S C

112.2

33

Nebraska

111.4

34

Texas Tech

110.4

35

Central Florida

110.3

36

Kansas St.

110.1

37

T C U

108.8

38

Virginia Tech

108.7

39

Northwestern

108.1

40

Utah

107.6

41

Iowa

107.1

42

North Carolina

107.1

43

Mississippi St.

106.0

44

Boise St.

105.9

45

Utah St.

105.8

46

Vanderbilt

104.9

47

Minnesota

104.7

48

Washington St.

104.5

49

Tennessee

104.5

50

Penn St.

104.4

51

Fresno St.

104.3

52

Indiana

104.2

53

East Carolina

104.2

54

Cincinnati

103.7

55

Houston

103.6

56

Ball St.

102.3

57

Northern Illinois

101.9

58

Duke

101.9

59

Boston College

101.7

60

Wake Forest

101.5

61

Toledo

100.9

62

Bowling Green

100.2

63

Louisiana–Lafayette

99.8

64

Kentucky

99.8

65

Buffalo

99.3

66

Pittsburgh

99.0

67

West Virginia

98.6

68

North Texas

98.4

69

Marshall

98.4

70

Rice

97.8

71

Syracuse

97.7

72

San Jose St.

97.6

73

Maryland

97.3

74

Colorado St.

97.0

75

Rutgers

96.8

76

Illinois

96.6

77

Ohio

95.5

78

Iowa St.

94.1

79

Navy

93.9

80

Arkansas

93.7

81

San Diego St.

93.4

82

S M U

93.4

83

Virginia

92.9

84

North Carolina St.

91.9

85

Kansas

91.4

86

Memphis

91.2

87

Western Kentucky

90.3

88

Arkansas St.

90.2

89

California

90.1

90

Tulsa

90.1

91

Tulane

89.1

92

Wyoming

88.7

93

Florida Atlantic

88.4

94

South Alabama

88.4

95

Purdue

87.9

96

Kent St.

87.8

97

U T S A

87.4

98

Louisiana–Monroe

87.2

99

U N L V

87.1

100

Middle Tennessee

86.9

101

Nevada

86.9

102

South Florida

86.8

103

Colorado

86.3

104

Temple

86.0

105

Army

85.7

106

Hawaii

85.0

107

Troy

84.6

108

Connecticut

82.8

109

Akron

82.7

110

Central Michigan

82.3

111

Texas St.

82.2

112

U A B

80.8

113

New Mexico

80.6

114

U T E P

80.4

115

Louisiana Tech

78.4

116

Air Force

77.4

117

Western Michigan

75.6

118

Massachusetts

74.0

119

Miami (O)

71.5

120

Eastern Michigan

70.2

121

Idaho

68.7

122

Florida Int’l

68.6

123

Southern Miss.

68.6

124

New Mexico St.

68.6

125

Georgia St.

63.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

3-1

7-1

115.5

114.6

116.5

Central Florida

3-0

6-1

108.9

111.8

110.3

Cincinnati

2-1

5-2

104.3

103.2

103.7

Houston

3-0

6-1

102.0

111.3

103.6

Rutgers

1-2

4-3

96.4

99.9

96.8

S M U

2-1

3-4

94.2

96.3

93.4

Memphis

0-3

1-5

90.4

96.3

91.2

South Florida

2-1

2-5

87.5

82.6

86.8

Temple

0-4

1-7

86.6

87.5

86.0

Connecticut

0-3

0-7

83.5

79.5

82.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

96.9

98.3

97.1

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida St.

5-0

7-0

130.4

134.8

132.4

Clemson

5-1

7-1

117.8

118.8

118.5

Wake Forest

2-3

4-4

100.6

104.1

101.5

Boston College

1-3

3-4

100.6

100.9

101.7

Syracuse

1-2

3-4

99.0

97.4

97.7

Maryland

1-3

5-3

95.9

99.9

97.3

North Carolina St.

0-4

3-4

91.3

95.4

91.9

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami

3-0

7-0

116.6

117.5

116.9

Georgia Tech

4-2

5-3

112.4

111.5

112.6

Virginia Tech

3-1

6-2

109.4

109.9

108.7

North Carolina

1-3

2-5

106.2

107.9

107.1

Duke

2-2

6-2

102.4

103.4

101.9

Pittsburgh

2-2

4-3

99.1

98.5

99.0

Virginia

0-4

2-6

92.4

94.4

92.9

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.3

106.7

105.7

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baylor

4-0

7-0

128.2

121.0

130.1

Oklahoma St.

3-1

6-1

119.9

110.6

119.5

Texas

4-0

5-2

119.4

110.9

118.6

Oklahoma

4-1

7-1

115.8

111.3

115.1

Texas Tech

4-1

7-1

111.0

107.3

110.4

Kansas St.

1-3

3-4

110.7

103.2

110.1

T C U

1-4

3-5

108.8

104.2

108.8

West Virginia

1-4

3-5

100.1

92.6

98.6

Iowa St.

0-4

1-6

95.2

86.8

94.1

Kansas

0-4

2-5

92.0

88.7

91.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

110.1

103.7

109.7

 

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

4-0

8-0

125.7

124.5

125.9

Wisconsin

3-1

5-2

119.9

120.7

120.8

Penn St.

1-2

4-3

105.2

106.3

104.4

Indiana

1-2

3-4

104.7

107.0

104.2

Illinois

0-3

3-4

97.0

98.9

96.6

Purdue

0-3

1-6

90.5

87.9

87.9

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

4-0

7-1

116.5

117.3

115.5

Michigan

2-1

6-1

114.7

114.8

114.3

Nebraska

2-1

5-2

112.6

111.0

111.4

Northwestern

0-4

4-4

108.3

105.9

108.1

Iowa

2-2

5-3

106.5

105.8

107.1

Minnesota

2-2

6-2

105.0

104.2

104.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

108.9

108.7

108.4

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

East Carolina

3-1

5-2

103.4

105.5

104.2

Marshall

2-1

4-3

97.0

100.8

98.4

Florida Atlantic

1-4

2-6

87.7

89.3

88.4

Middle Tennessee

2-2

4-4

86.0

91.1

86.9

U A B

1-2

2-5

81.5

82.3

80.8

Southern Miss.

0-3

0-7

69.4

69.1

68.6

Florida Int’l

1-2

1-6

68.8

70.8

68.6

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Rice

4-0

6-2

97.4

100.3

97.8

North Texas

3-1

5-3

97.3

99.6

98.4

Tulsa

1-2

2-5

91.0

89.9

90.1

Tulane

4-0

6-2

88.6

92.0

89.1

U T S A

2-2

3-5

87.7

89.8

87.4

Louisiana Tech

2-2

3-5

80.8

83.2

80.4

U T E P

0-4

1-6

79.5

81.9

78.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

86.9

89.0

87.0

 

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

B Y U

 

6-2

114.8

113.5

115.8

Notre Dame

 

6-2

113.8

111.6

112.4

Navy

 

4-3

93.9

95.7

93.9

Army

 

3-5

84.0

90.1

85.7

Idaho

 

1-7

69.1

73.8

68.7

New Mexico St.

 

1-7

69.1

72.4

68.6

     

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

90.8

92.9

90.9

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

3-1

5-3

99.8

100.2

100.2

Buffalo

4-0

6-2

97.8

100.1

99.3

Ohio

3-1

6-2

94.7

98.5

95.5

Kent St.

1-4

2-7

87.1

89.6

87.8

Akron

1-4

2-7

82.2

85.9

82.7

Massachusetts

1-3

1-7

74.0

79.4

74.0

Miami (O)

0-4

0-8

73.0

76.5

71.5

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Northern Illinois

4-0

8-0

101.6

103.5

101.9

Ball St.

5-0

8-1

101.1

104.7

102.3

Toledo

3-1

5-3

99.8

101.3

100.9

Central Michigan

2-2

3-5

82.8

85.5

82.3

Western Michigan

1-4

1-8

75.5

76.9

75.6

Eastern Michigan

0-4

1-7

71.5

74.6

70.2

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.8

90.5

88.0

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Boise St.

3-1

5-3

104.7

100.8

105.9

Utah St.

3-1

4-4

104.3

101.9

105.8

Colorado St.

2-1

4-4

96.0

96.3

97.0

Wyoming

2-2

4-4

87.7

89.0

88.7

New Mexico

0-3

2-5

80.2

84.1

80.6

Air Force

0-5

1-7

77.9

80.9

77.4

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

4-0

7-0

104.0

103.3

104.3

San Jose St.

3-1

4-3

96.8

93.8

97.6

San Diego St.

2-1

3-4

93.1

91.9

93.4

Nevada

2-3

3-5

86.8

88.9

86.9

U N L V

3-1

5-3

86.7

89.1

87.1

Hawaii

0-5

0-7

84.3

84.7

85.0

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

91.9

92.1

92.5

 

 

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon

5-0

8-0

135.6

132.5

136.8

Stanford

5-1

7-1

126.0

118.5

125.3

Washington

2-3

5-3

119.7

115.6

119.4

Oregon St.

4-1

6-2

118.4

110.0

116.6

Washington St.

2-3

4-4

103.7

103.0

104.5

California

0-5

1-7

91.8

87.4

90.1

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona St.

3-1

5-2

122.6

122.2

122.6

U C L A

2-2

5-2

117.3

111.6

115.8

Arizona

2-2

5-2

116.4

113.2

115.3

U S C

2-2

5-3

112.7

110.0

112.2

Utah

1-4

4-4

108.0

105.7

107.6

Colorado

0-4

3-4

88.3

89.9

86.3

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.4

110.0

112.7

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Missouri

3-1

7-1

122.1

119.9

121.3

South Carolina

4-2

6-2

119.5

117.0

118.6

Florida

3-2

4-3

116.3

113.5

115.0

Georgia

3-2

4-3

114.6

111.9

113.7

Vanderbilt

1-4

4-4

105.6

103.0

104.9

Tennessee

1-3

4-4

105.5

104.5

104.5

Kentucky

0-4

1-6

99.1

98.9

99.8

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

5-0

8-0

137.1

133.3

138.2

L S U

3-2

7-2

123.0

121.1

123.7

Texas A&M

3-2

6-2

121.5

118.9

121.3

Ole Miss

2-3

5-3

120.0

116.9

119.6

Auburn

3-1

7-1

115.6

114.9

115.8

Mississippi St.

1-2

4-3

106.4

103.6

106.0

Arkansas

0-4

3-5

95.2

98.3

93.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.4

112.6

114.0

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana–Lafayette

3-0

5-2

99.0

100.3

99.8

Arkansas St.

1-1

3-4

90.7

87.9

90.2

Western Kentucky

1-3

4-4

90.2

91.8

90.3

South Alabama

1-2

3-4

87.5

91.3

88.4

Louisiana–Monroe

2-1

4-4

87.2

87.9

87.2

Troy

3-1

5-3

83.6

86.7

84.6

Texas St.

2-2

5-3

81.9

87.4

82.2

Georgia St.

0-3

0-8

62.6

69.0

63.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

85.3

87.8

85.8

 

 

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Old Dominion

 

5-3

83.3

84.1

90.0

Georgia Southern

 

4-2

83.1

85.5

90.2

Appalachian St.

 

1-6

73.6

72.5

80.7

Charlotte

 

4-4

58.5

63.1

65.6

           
Not figured in regular averages to 100

74.6

76.3

81.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Memphis Cincinnati

-10.9

-3.9

-9.5

Houston South Florida

17.5

31.7

19.8

North Texas Rice

2.4

1.8

3.1

Troy UL-Monroe

-1.1

1.3

-0.1

Washington St. Arizona St.

-15.9

-16.2

-15.1

Oregon St. U S C

8.7

3.0

7.4

Missouri Tennessee

19.6

18.4

19.8

Arkansas Auburn

-17.4

-13.6

-19.1

Purdue Ohio St.

-32.2

-33.6

-35.0

Boston College Virginia Tech

-5.8

-6.0

-4.0

Massachusetts Northern Illinois

-25.6

-22.1

-25.9

Rutgers Temple

11.8

14.4

12.8

Penn St. Illinois

11.2

10.4

10.8

Air Force Army

-3.1

-6.2

-5.3

Iowa Wisconsin

-10.4

-11.9

-10.7

South Carolina Mississippi St.

16.1

16.4

15.6

North Carolina St. North Carolina

-12.9

-10.5

-13.2

Syracuse Wake Forest

1.4

-3.7

-0.8

Marshall Southern Miss.

30.1

34.2

32.3

U A B Middle Tennessee

-2.0

-6.3

-3.6

Georgia St. Western Kentucky

-25.6

-20.8

-24.6

Virginia Clemson

-22.4

-21.4

-22.6

Michigan St. Michigan

3.8

4.5

3.2

Nebraska Northwestern

7.3

8.1

6.3

California Arizona

-21.6

-22.8

-22.2

Florida (Jacksonville) Georgia

1.7

1.6

1.3

Indiana Minnesota

2.7

5.8

2.5

Notre Dame Navy

22.9

18.9

21.5

Tulsa U T S A

6.3

3.1

5.7

Texas Kansas

30.4

25.2

30.2

Akron Kent St.

-2.4

-2.2

-2.6

Kansas St. Iowa St.

18.5

19.4

19.1

T C U West Virginia

11.7

14.6

13.2

Utah St. Hawaii

24.0

21.2

24.8

U N L V San Jose St.

-7.6

-2.2

-8.0

Idaho Texas St.

-10.3

-11.1

-11.0

UL-Lafayette New Mexico St.

32.9

30.9

34.2

Florida Atlantic Tulane

2.1

0.3

2.3

Florida Int’l East Carolina

-32.1

-32.2

-33.1

Texas Tech Oklahoma St.

-5.9

-0.3

-6.1

Georgia Tech Pittsburgh

16.3

11.1

16.6

Toledo Eastern Michigan

31.3

29.7

33.7

U C L A Colorado

32.0

24.7

32.5

South Alabama Arkansas St.

-0.7

5.9

0.7

Florida St. Miami

16.3

19.8

18.0

San Diego St. New Mexico

15.9

10.8

15.8

Colorado St. Boise St.

-5.7

-1.5

-5.9

Texas A&M U T E P

45.0

40.0

45.9

Fresno St. Nevada

20.2

17.4

20.4

 

 

Complete Bowl Projections

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

Colorado St.

vs.

U S C

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Northern Illinois ^

vs.

Arizona St.

Famous Idaho Potato

Boise St.

vs.

Ohio

New Orleans

UL-Lafayette

vs.

Middle Tennessee

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

Texas St. *

vs.

East Carolina

Hawai’i

San Jose St.

vs.

North Texas

Little Caesars Pizza

Ball St.

vs.

Indiana

Poinsettia

Utah St.

vs.

Bowling Green *

Military Bowl

North Carolina

vs.

Marshall

Texas

Iowa

vs.

Buffalo *

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Washington

vs.

B Y U

Pinstripe

Rutgers

vs.

Notre Dame *

Belk

Houston

vs.

Maryland

Russell Athletic

Louisville

vs.

Miami

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Oklahoma St.

vs.

Nebraska

Armed Forces

U N L V

vs.

Navy

Music City

Duke

vs.

Ole Miss

Alamo

Texas Tech

vs.

U C L A

Holiday

Kansas St.

vs.

Arizona

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

Vanderbilt

vs.

Georgia Tech

Sun

Virginia Tech

vs.

Oregon St.

Liberty

Georgia

vs.

Tulane

Chick-fil-A

Clemson

vs.

Missouri

Heart Of Dallas

Rice

vs.

Minnesota

Gator

Michigan

vs.

Florida

Outback

South Carolina

vs.

Wisconsin

Capital One

Michigan St.

vs.

Texas A&M

Rose

Ohio St.

vs.

Stanford

Fiesta

Baylor

vs.

Fresno St.

Sugar

Auburn

vs.

Central Florida

Cotton

L S U

vs.

Texas

Orange

Florida St.

vs.

Oklahoma

BBVA Compass Bowl

Cincinnati

vs.

Tennessee

GoDaddy.com

Troy

vs.

Stanford

BCS Championship

Alabama

vs.

Oregon

 

 

 

 

* At-Large Selection

 

 

 

^ Special Deal to allow NIU to play in better bowl and Boise St. to play in home bowl

 

May 30, 2010

PiRate Football Ratings Return in August

Filed under: College Football, Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:43 am

Hello to all football fans.  The PiRate Ratings are already undergoing their initial statistical compilation for the 2010-2011 football season.  We will begin previewing the FBS conference races in Mid-August and the NFL Divisions after that.

The ratings will be tweaked a little again this season as we change the weightings of the information we use to keep up to date with what wins in football these days.

Once again, we will offer picks for the unbelievably low price of $5 a week, and we will be adding the option of purchasing all our college and pro picks for the season for the 18 weeks of the regular College/Pro seasons plus the Bowls and NFL Playoffs for $75, a 25% discount!  Go to our sister site at www.piratings.webs.com in August to purchase either plan.

September 3, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads for College Football–September 3-7, 2009

Week 1—September 3-7, 2009

 

It seems like just yesterday that Florida was beating Oklahoma for the national championship.  The season begins anew tonight, and the PiRate Ratings are here.

 

There have been a few changes here this season.  First, there are now five of us here, so we will have time to devote to both college and pro this year.

 

This year, we will be offering very affordable services through our webpage at www.piratings.webs.com.  For just $5 each week, we will e-mail you our picks by Noon Eastern Time Thursday.  What you do with them is your choice, and we use these picks only in contests.

 

Do not use the PiRate Ratings themselves as a guide to your selections.  We don’t do this, because we look at additional information when we make our choices.  The PiRate and Mean Ratings are general spreads—what we would expect if the teams’ played 100 times.  We need to know about just the one game actually being played.

 

Without further adieu, let’s get on with the show.

 

NCAA Top 25 For Preseason

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Florida 

142

0

0

2

Oklahoma

136

0

0

3

Texas

135

0

0

4

Southern Cal

125

0

0

5

Ole Miss

120

0

0

6

Alabama

120

0

0

7

California

120

0

0

8

Okla. St.

118

0

0

9

Va. Tech

117

0

0

10

Penn St.

116

0

0

11

Florida St.

116

0

0

12

Georgia Tech

115

0

0

13

Georgia 

114

0

0

14

L S U

114

0

0

15

Iowa

114

0

0

16

N. Carolina

113

0

0

17

Ohio St.

113

0

0

18

Clemson

113

0

0

19

Pittsburgh

112

0

0

20

Texas Tech

112

0

0

21

T C U

111

0

0

22

Kansas

110

0

0

23

Boise St.

109

0

0

24

Oregon St.

109

0

0

25

Boston Coll.

109

0

0

     

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida State

0-0

0-0

115.8

Clemson

0-0

0-0

112.7

Boston College

0-0

0-0

109.1

North Carolina State

0-0

0-0

108.4

Wake Forest

0-0

0-0

106.1

Maryland

0-0

0-0

97.6

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

0-0

0-0

117.2

Georgia Tech

0-0

0-0

114.7

North Carolina

0-0

0-0

113.4

Miami-FL

0-0

0-0

108.4

Virginia

0-0

0-0

99.1

Duke

0-0

0-0

96.5

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Pittsburgh

0-0

0-0

112.0

Rutgers

0-0

0-0

106.3

South Florida

0-0

0-0

104.9

Cincinnati

0-0

0-0

102.9

West Virginia

0-0

0-0

101.5

Connecticut

0-0

0-0

100.0

Louisville

0-0

0-0

95.0

Syracuse

0-0

0-0

93.3

 

Big Ten

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Penn State

0-0

0-0

116.3

Iowa

0-0

0-0

113.5

Ohio State

0-0

0-0

113.1

Illinois

0-0

0-0

106.1

Michigan State

0-0

0-0

103.4

Michigan

0-0

0-0

102.3

Wisconsin

0-0

0-0

101.3

Minnesota

0-0

0-0

100.5

Purdue

0-0

0-0

99.1

Northwestern

0-0

0-0

97.4

Indiana

0-0

0-0

89.5

 

Big 12

North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Kansas

0-0

0-0

110.4

Nebraska

0-0

0-0

108.5

Missouri

0-0

0-0

104.7

Colorado

0-0

0-0

102.0

Kansas State

0-0

0-0

97.1

Iowa State

0-0

0-0

92.0

 

 

 

 
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

0-0

0-0

135.7

Texas

0-0

0-0

135.5

Oklahoma State

0-0

0-0

118.4

Texas Tech

0-0

0-0

111.8

Baylor

0-0

0-0

108.7

Texas A&M

0-0

0-0

94.3

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

East Carolina

0-0

0-0

102.2

Southern Mississippi

0-0

0-0

101.2

Marshall

0-0

0-0

95.8

Memphis

0-0

0-0

90.1

Central Florida

0-0

0-0

89.2

U A B

0-0

0-0

87.8

 

 

 

 
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

0-0

0-0

100.6

Tulsa

0-0

0-0

97.1

U T E P

0-0

0-0

94.2

Rice

0-0

0-0

92.1

S M U

0-0

0-0

86.4

Tulane

0-0

0-0

79.8

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

0-0

108.1

Navy  

0-0

94.7

Army  

0-0

79.1

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Buffalo

0-0

0-0

95.0

Temple

0-0

0-0

91.6

Ohio U

0-0

0-0

89.8

Akron

0-0

0-0

89.2

Bowling Green

0-0

0-0

87.3

Kent St.

0-0

0-0

86.1

Miami (O)

0-0

0-0

76.5

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Central Michigan

0-0

0-0

99.8

Eastern Michigan

0-0

0-0

92.6

Western Michigan

0-0

0-0

92.0

Toledo

0-0

0-0

90.4

Ball State

0-0

0-0

89.8

Northern Illinois

0-0

0-0

88.9

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

T C U

0-0

0-0

110.7

Utah

0-0

0-0

107.8

B Y U

0-0

0-0

104.5

Air Force

0-0

0-0

99.3

Colo. State

0-0

0-0

92.1

S. D. State

0-0

0-0

91.0

UNLV

0-0

0-0

90.9

New Mexico

0-0

0-0

88.3

Wyoming

0-0

0-0

88.0

 

Pac-10 Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Cal

0-0

0-0

124.8

California

0-0

0-0

119.8

Oregon St.

0-0

0-0

109.4

Arizona

0-0

0-0

108.9

Stanford

0-0

0-0

108.7

Oregon

0-0

0-0

107.7

U C L A

0-0

0-0

104.4

Arizona St.

0-0

0-0

102.8

Washington

0-0

0-0

99.0

Wash. St.

0-0

0-0

84.1

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida

0-0

0-0

142.4

Georgia

0-0

0-0

114.4

Tennessee

0-0

0-0

105.7

Vanderbilt

0-0

0-0

104.2

South Carolina

0-0

0-0

103.2

Kentucky

0-0

0-0

99.7

 

 

 

 
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Ole Miss

0-0

0-0

120.4

Alabama

0-0

0-0

120.3

L S U

0-0

0-0

114.0

Arkansas

0-0

0-0

107.7

Auburn

0-0

0-0

105.2

Mississippi State

0-0

0-0

90.7

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Troy

0-0

0-0

96.8

Arkansas State

0-0

0-0

90.1

Florida International

0-0

0-0

87.6

Middle Tennessee

0-0

0-0

85.3

Florida Atlantic

0-0

0-0

84.5

Louisiana-Monroe

0-0

0-0

84.5

Louisiana

0-0

0-0

84.0

Western Kentucky

0-0

0-0

76.6

North Texas

0-0

0-0

73.9

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

0-0

0-0

109.5

Nevada

0-0

0-0

97.8

Utah State

0-0

0-0

96.4

Fresno State

0-0

0-0

95.1

Louisiana Tech

0-0

0-0

94.4

San Jose State

0-0

0-0

91.7

Hawaii

0-0

0-0

85.7

New Mexico State

0-0

0-0

77.8

Idaho

0-0

0-0

74.5

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Thursday, September 3  

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Spread

Score

Mean

 
NORTH CAROLINA ST. South Carolina

9

28-19

4

 
UTAH Utah State

13

27-14

27

 
BOISE STATE Oregon

6

34-28

3

 
Troy BOWLING GREEN

7

27-20

4

 
BALL STATE North Texas

19

31-12

22

 
   

 

 

 

 
Friday, September 4  

 

 

 

 
Favorite Underdog

Spread

Score

Mean

 
Tulsa TULANE

15

42-27

21

 
   

 

 

 

 
Saturday, September 5  

 

 

 

 
Favorite Underdog

Spread

Score

Mean

 
OHIO STATE Navy

24

34-10

21

 
PENN STATE Akron

32

35-3

29

 
MICHIGAN Western Michigan

14

34-20

9

 
Connecticut OHIO U

8

21-13

9

 
NOTRE DAME Nevada

16

40-24

10

 
OKLAHOMA STATE Georgia

9

35-26

2

 
Kentucky Miami (O) (@ Cincinnati)

23

35-12

20

 
OKLAHOMA Brigham Young

37

58-21

20

 
Illinois (@ St. Louis) Missouri

1

24-23

-4

 
Rice U A B

2

28-26

4

 
WAKE FOREST Baylor

0

27-27

7

 
Minnesota SYRACUSE

4

28-24

6

 
EASTERN MICHIGAN Army

16

33-17

6

 
WISCONSIN Northern Illinois

15

35-20

15

 
PURDUE Toledo

12

24-12

13

 
Stanford WASHINGTON STATE

22

38-16

14

 
AUBURN Louisiana Tech

15

24-9

11

 
TEXAS A&M New Mexico

10

31-21

8

 
Alabama (@ Atlanta) Virginia Tech

3

17-14

2

 
NEW MEXICO STATE Idaho

6

27-21

6

 
U T E P Buffalo

4

35-31

4

 
CALIFORNIA Maryland

28

42-14

16

 
SOUTHERN CAL San Jose State

37

50-13

38

 
ARIZONA Central Michigan

14

35-21

15

 
U C L A San Diego State

16

35-19

18

 
L s u WASHINGTON

11

28-17

15

 
NEBRASKA Florida Atlantic

30

37-7

20

 
CLEMSON Middle Tennessee

32

42-10

21

 
TEXAS Louisiana-Monroe

55

55-0

39

 
TENNESSEE Western Kentucky

34

34-0

26

 
           
Sunday, September 6  

 

 

 

 
Favorite Underdog

Spread

Score

Mean

 
Ole Miss MEMPHIS

29

42-13

17

 
COLORADO Colorado State

11

35-24

8

 
   

 

 

 

 
Monday, September 7  

 

 

 

 
Favorite Underdog

Spread

Score

Mean

 
RUTGERS Cincinnati

7

28-21

7

 
FLORIDA STATE Miami-Fl

9

21-12

8

 
                 

 

Coming next week in addition to the college ratings, we debut the NFL ratings for 2009.  Pittsburgh begins defense of their Super Bowl title with a Thursday night game against Tennessee.

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