Bowl Projections For November 2, 2009

Weekly Bowl Predictions

Monday, November 2, 2009

 

This will be a pivotal weekend in the bowl pecking orders, as several marquee games are on tap.  Two of the big three have easy games this week.  Texas will have little more than a workout against Central Florida, while Florida should have enough points on the board two possessions into the game to beat Vanderbilt.

 

Here’s a conference-by-conference outlook for this week.  Unlike many bowl projections, which use a system based on if the season ended today, the PiRate Bowl Projections looks ahead and predicts where the teams will be on December 6.

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

The Atlantic Division is still very much up-for-grabs with Boston College and Clemson tied for first and Florida State and Wake Forest just one game back.  We think Clemson can run the table and grab the division flag.  

 

Georgia Tech has a one game lead over Duke (yes, Duke), but they are tied in the loss column.  We see the Blue Devils having an excellent chance at becoming bowl eligible, but they aren’t going to run the table and win the Coastal Division.  Georgia Tech just edged Clemson in Atlanta, and we think CU would get revenge in an ACC Championship Game.

 

1. BCS Automatic (Orange)—Clemson

2. Chick-fil-A—Miami

3. Gator—Georgia Tech

4. Champ Sports—Virginia Tech

5. Music City—North Carolina

6. Champs Sports—Boston College

7. Emerald—Florida State

8. Eagle Bank—Duke

9. G M A C—No Team Available

 

Big East

Cincinnati is the darling this year, but we think they will stumble at Pittsburgh on December 5.  The Panthers have home games with Syracuse and Notre Dame and the backyard brawl game at West Virginia, and we think Dave Wannstedt’s team will win out to take the Big East Championship.  The question here is where a Cincinnati team at 11-1 would go.  We think the Bearcats would not garner an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl.

 

This conference will have a little shuffling to make sure there will be no rematch games in bowls.  West Virginia played both East Carolina and Marshall, and they will not play either CUSA team in a bowl

 

1. BCS Automatic (Orange)—Pittsburgh

2. Gator—Notre Dame

3. Meineke Car Care—Cincinnati

4. Papa John’s—West Virginia

5. International—Rutgers

6. St. Petersburg—South Florida

 

Big Ten

Iowa is the reincarnated version of Indiana in 1967, the epitome of cardiac comebacks.  That Indiana team finally fell at Minnesota in November, and the schedule is set for Iowa to have that type of game at Ohio State.  For now, we believe Ohio State doesn’t have the offensive talent to upset the Hawkeyes.

 

Penn State should edge Ohio State, but the season finale at Michigan State is definitely a trap game.  At 11-1, they are in a BCS Bowl for sure, but at 10-2, it becomes a little hazy.

 

The bottom four bowls will shuffle to find their best fit, as we see three 6-6 teams and one 7-5 team vying for those bids.  Michigan will trump the other three even with a 6-6 record.

 

1. BCS Automatic (Rose)—Iowa

1a. BCS At-large ( )—Penn State

2. Capital One—Wisconsin

3. Outback—Ohio State

4. Alamo—Michigan

5. Champs Sports—Minnesota

6. Insight—Michigan State

7. Pizza—Northwestern

 

Big 12

Texas is moving along like a steamroller going down hill.  The Longhorns close the season with Central Florida, Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M, and the Big 12 North Champion.  A&M may be the only team that can come close, so Mack Brown should get a chance to play for his second national championship in Pasadena.

 

Parity leaves this conference with a distinct possibility of having 10 bowl-eligible teams for eight bowls.  The two teams not receiving bids will be 6-6, so there isn’t a great chance either will earn a bowl.

 

1. BCS Automatic (National Championship)—Texas

2. Cotton—Oklahoma State

3. Holiday—Oklahoma

4. Alamo—Texas Tech

5. Sun—Nebraska

6. Insight—Texas A&M

7. Independence—Missouri

8. Texas—Kansas State

 

Bowl Eligible (at 6-6)

Kansas

Iowa State

 

Conference USA

This conference is a jigsaw puzzle.  East Carolina and Houston now appear to be on a collision course toward meeting in the conference championship game, but both teams face opponents that can upset them.  For now, we’ll stick with Case Keenum and the Cougars to win out and finish the regular season at 12-1.  Whether that could propel them out of the automatic bid to the Liberty Bowl to a better bowl, we don’t know.

 

1. Liberty—Houston

2. Hawaii—East Carolina

3. Armed Forces—S M U

4. New Orleans—Southern Miss

5. St. Petersburg—Marshall

 

Bowl Eligible (all at 6-6)

Tulsa

Central Florida

U A B

 

Independents

Notre Dame will not qualify as a BCS Bowl participant, so they will steal a spot from the Big East.  Navy is one win away from an automatic spot in the Texas Bowl, while Army has too much to do to get bowl eligible.

 

1. Gator Bowl—Notre Dame per Gator Bowl rules with Big East

2. Texas—Navy

3. Eagle Bank—No Team Available (Army falls short)

 

Mid-American

Temple and Central Michigan are headed to the MAC Championship Game, while Northern Illinois, Ohio, and Kent State  appear to be headed to the good kind of bowl eligibility (seven or more wins).  Unfortunately for this league, it now looks like the ACC will have an eligible team for this bowl, so the MAC won’t get a guaranteed fourth bid.  However, we see two teams finishing with seven or more wins and jumping ahead of all the 6-6 teams for any at-large bids.

 

The MAC doesn’t automatically send its overall champion to Detroit.  The Pizza Bowl gets first choice, but they don’t have to take the champion.  Central Michigan went there last year, so we think the Chippewas will head to Mobile instead.

 

1. Pizza—Northern Illinois

2. GMAC—Central Michigan

3. International—Temple

 

Bowl Eligible (7-5 or better)

Ohio U

Kent State

 

Mountain West

T C U closes with San Diego State, Utah, Wyoming, and New Mexico.  SDSU could give the Horned Frogs some competition for 15-25 minutes, but TCU will handle the Aztecs.  Utah is always tough, but the Utes don’t have the horses to win in Ft. Worth.  Wyoming can always surprise in Laramie in late November, but we think TCU will win.  At 12-0 and with road wins against Clemson and BYU, TCU should get a BCS Bowl bid even if Boise State finishes ahead of them in the BCS standings.

 

A. BCS At-Large (Fiesta)—T C U

1. Las Vegas—B Y U

2. Poinsettia—Utah

3. Armed Forces—Air Force

4. New Mexico—San Diego State

5. Humanitarian—No Team Available

 

Pac-10

If Southern Cal receives an at-large BCS bowl bid over a 12-0 TCU or Boise State, it will be highway robbery.  The Trojans could even lose another game, so we are picking them to fall short.  Oregon is in the driver’s seat, but Arizona still lurks in the bushes.  The Ducks must visit Tucson on November 21, and if the Wildcats win at Cal the week before, this game will be for first place in the Pac-10.  We think Oregon can lose this game and still win the championship.

 

1. BCS Automatic (Rose)—Oregon

2. Holiday—Southern Cal

3. Sun—California

4. Las Vegas—Arizona

5. Emerald—Stanford

6. Poinsettia—Oregon State

 

Bowl Eligible (6-6)

U C L A

 

Southeastern

This week, we are back to picking Florida to edge Alabama, but that could change again.  LSU is the clear cut third best team, but there’s a huge drop to the fourth place team.  This league will send 10 teams to bowls, with the bottom five teams finishing with 7-5 or 6-6 records.

 

1. BCS Automatic (National Championship Game)—Florida

1a. BCS At-large (Sugar)—Alabama

2. Capital One—L S U

3. Outback—Tennessee

4. Cotton—Auburn

5. Chick-fil-A—Ole Miss

6. Music City—Georgia

7. Liberty—Ole Miss

8. Independence—Kentucky

9. Papa John’s—South Carolina

 

Sunbelt

Troy has little in its path to securing another SBC title.  This league has only one automatic bowl bid.  Three more bowls guarantee a seven-win SBC team first priority if their contracted conference cannot provide a team, but we believe all three bowls will have a bowl-eligible team from each conference.

 

1. New Orleans—Troy

 

Bowl Eligible (7-5 or better)

Middle Tennessee

 

Western Athletic

Boise State has three games remaining against teams that can give them a run for their money.  A Friday night game this week at Louisiana Tech is a huge trap game, while home games against Idaho and Nevada could be interesting for awhile.  The Broncos should run the table in the regular season for the fourth time in six years.  A win over Pac-10 champ Oregon if the Ducks finish 11-1 should be enough to earn BSU an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl, even if TCU finishes ahead of them.  However, unscrupulous bowl sponsors wouldn’t be required to take the Broncos, even if TCU and Boise State finished 3^rd and 4^th in the final BCS Standings.

 

A. BCS At-Large (Sugar)—Boise State

1. Humanitarian—Idaho

2. New Mexico—Nevada

3. Hawaii—Fresno State

 

The BCS Bowls

National Championship Game—Texas vs. Florida

Fiesta Bowl—Penn State vs. T C U

Orange Bowl—Clemson vs. Pittsburgh

Sugar Bowl—Alabama vs. Boise State

Rose Bowl—Oregon vs. Iowa

 

With Florida finishing first in the BCS Standings, the Sugar Bowl will get the first at-large pick.  Even though Alabama went there last year, we see the Sugar Bowl officials taking the Tide once again.  The Fiesta Bowl would get the next at-large choice after losing Texas to the title game, and we believe they would take Penn State.  The Orange Bowl would then choose Pittsburgh over the rest of the field.  The Fiesta would then take TCU, and the Sugar Bowl would then have all the pressure to either do the right thing and take Boise State or the wrong thing and take a one or even two-loss team (Cincinnati, Southern Cal, Georgia Tech)

 

The Rest

First, let’s take care of the loose change.  There will be three bowls that will not have regularly contracted team available.  The GMAC Bowl will not have an available ACC team; the Eagle Bank Bowl will not have a bowl-eligible Army team; and the Humanitarian Bowl will not have an available Mountain West Team.

 

We expect there to be exactly three bowl-eligible teams with seven or more wins, and they will fill the three slots ahead of a host of 6-6 teams from BCS conferences.  Those three fortunate teams are Ohio U, Kent State, and Middle Tennessee.  

 

Note: Teams in asterisks are 7-win or better at-large bowl eligible teams

 

New Mexico	San Diego State	vs.	Nevada
St. Petersburg	South Florida	vs.	Marshall
New Orleans	Troy	vs.	Southern Miss
Las Vegas	B Y U	vs.	Arizona
Poinsettia	Utah	vs.	Oregon State
Hawaii	Fresno State	vs.	East Carolina
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Northern Illinois	vs.	Northwestern
Meineke Car Care	Boston College	vs.	Cincinnati
Emerald	Florida State	vs.	Stanford
Music City	North Carolina	vs.	Georgia
Independence	Kentucky	vs.	Missouri
Eagle Bank	Duke	vs.	Kent State
Champs Sports	Virginia Tech	vs.	Minnesota
Humanitarian	Idaho	vs.	Ohio U
Holiday	Southern Cal	vs.	Oklahoma
Armed Forces	Air Force	vs.	S M U
Sun	Nebraska	vs.	California
Texas	Navy	vs.	Kansas State
Insight.com	Michigan State	vs.	Texas A&M
Chick-fil-A	Miami-FL	vs.	Arkansas
Outback	Ohio State	vs.	Tennessee
Capital One	Wisconsin	vs.	L S U
Gator	Georgia Tech	vs.	Notre Dame
International	Rutgers	vs.	Temple
Cotton	Oklahoma State	vs.	Auburn
Papajohns.com	West Virginia	vs.	South Carolina
Liberty	Ole Miss	vs.	Houston
Alamo	Michigan	vs.	Texas Tech
G M A C	Central Michigan	vs.	Middle Tennessee

 

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–October 27-31, 2009

A New Number One In The PiRate Ratings

PiRate Picks Go 8-2-1 against the Spread

 

For the first time this season, the Florida Gators don’t occupy the top spot in the PiRate Ratings.  However, unlike some polls and other ratings, it’s not Alabama that has displaced Tebow Incorporated.  Texas surpassed Florida following an impressive blowout win at Missouri.  If the Longhorns can win at Oklahoma State, it looks highly favorable for Coach Mack Brown to direct the Longhorns to their second National Championship Game appearance in five years.

 

We receive e-mails from readers (pirate_ratings@live.com), asking how a team like Oklahoma can be rated so high with three losses.  We must remind you that the PiRate Ratings Top 25 is not a poll like those voted on by journalists or coaches.  These ratings do not rank teams based on what they have done so far this season.  They are meant to estimate the point spread differential between teams before applying home field advantage and about a dozen other variables.

 

Additionally, we must reiterate that you should not use the raw PiRate Ratings when picking games against the spread.  We only use it as a beginning point.  For example, let’s take a look at a sample game from last week—Rutgers at Army.  Rutgers entered the week with a Pirate Rating of 100.8 compared to Army at 82.9.  That’s a spread of 17.9.  Army’s home field advantage for the weeknight nationally televised game was just two points.  So, now we have Rutgers favored by 15.9.  Next, we looked at several variables to see how they affected this particular game.  One major variable was Rutgers’ run defense being superior to the average run defense, while Army relies almost exclusively on the run.  That tilted our in-house spread by three points in Rutgers’ favor, making it now 18.9.  RU had an extra day to prepare, and we moved the in-house spread by 1.5 points, making it 20.4.  The Las Vegas line for the game was Rutgers by 10, and our spread differed by 10.4.  Thus Rutgers -10 became our top college selection for the week.

 

If you want this week’s selections by Thursday afternoon, go to www.piratings.webs.com and click on “Picks vs. Vegas Line.”  We offer a bargain at just $5 per week.  We had dozens of happy customers last week when our picks finished 8-2-1.  For the season, our record against the spread is now 45-29-2 for 60.8%.

 

NCAA Top 25 For October 26, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	135.8	7	0
2	Florida	133.2	7	0
3	Oklahoma	129.8	4	3
4	Alabama	130.2	7	0
5	Southern Cal	124.1	6	1
6	T C U	121.2	7	0
7	Va. Tech	120.5	5	2
8	Boise St.	116.6	7	0
9	Penn St.	116.6	7	1
10	Oregon	116.5	6	1
11	Georgia Tech	116.4	7	1
12	Iowa	117.3	8	0
13	Ole Miss	116.7	5	2
14	Okla. St.	116.5	6	1
15	Ohio St.	116.4	6	2
16	California	115.7	5	2
17	Pittsburgh	115.3	7	1
18	Nebraska	114.9	4	3
19	Cincinnati	114.5	7	0
20	L  S  U	113.7	6	1
21	Miami (Fla.)	113.6	5	2
22	Arkansas	112.5	3	4
23	Clemson	112.4	4	3
24	Stanford	112.3	5	3
25	Arizona	111.4	5	2
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	3-2	4-3	112.4
Florida State	1-3	3-4	110.4
Boston College	3-2	5-3	109.0
Wake Forest	2-2	4-4	104.9
North Carolina State	0-3	3-4	102.5
Maryland	1-3	2-6	91.4
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	3-1	5-2	120.5
Georgia Tech	5-1	7-1	118.4
Miami-FL	2-2	5-2	113.6
North Carolina	0-3	4-3	105.7
Duke	2-1	4-3	100.9
Virginia	2-1	3-4	100.0

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Pittsburgh	4-0	7-1	115.3
Cincinnati	3-0	7-0	114.5
West Virginia	2-0	6-1	105.1
Connecticut	1-2	4-3	104.4
South Florida	1-2	5-2	104.3
Rutgers	0-2	5-2	101.0
Syracuse	0-2	3-4	92.9
Louisville	0-3	2-5	91.7

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Penn State	3-1	7-1	118.6
Iowa	4-0	8-0	117.3
Ohio State	4-1	6-2	116.4
Michigan State	3-2	4-4	103.9
Wisconsin	2-2	5-2	102.0
Michigan	1-3	5-3	101.8
Minnesota	2-3	4-4	98.8
Purdue	2-2	3-5	98.6
Northwestern	2-2	5-3	95.2
Indiana	1-3	4-4	91.8
Illinois	0-5	1-6	91.0

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	1-2	4-3	114.9
Kansas	1-2	5-2	107.7
Missouri	0-3	4-3	103.2
Kansas State	3-1	5-3	98.9
Iowa State	2-2	5-3	97.3
Colorado	1-2	2-5	96.7
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	4-0	7-0	135.8
Oklahoma	2-1	4-3	129.8
Oklahoma State	3-0	6-1	116.5
Texas Tech	2-2	5-3	111.0
Baylor	0-3	3-4	99.4
Texas A&M	1-2	4-3	97.7

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Mississippi	3-1	5-3	100.8
East Carolina	3-1	4-3	98.6
Marshall	3-1	5-3	95.9
Central Florida	2-2	4-3	95.3
U A B	2-2	2-5	87.6
Memphis	1-3	2-5	85.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	2-1	6-1	105.9
Tulsa	2-1	4-3	100.3
U T E P	2-1	3-4	93.1
S M U	2-1	3-4	87.8
Rice	0-4	0-8	76.4
Tulane	0-4	2-5	74.0

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		5-2	109.2
Navy		6-2	102.0
Army		3-5	82.7

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	4-0	5-2	98.5
Buffalo	1-3	3-5	92.4
Ohio U	3-1	5-3	89.9
Bowling Green	2-2	3-5	88.6
Kent St.	3-1	4-4	87.8
Akron	0-3	1-6	83.6
Miami (O)	0-4	0-8	75.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	5-0	7-1	108.2
Northern Illinois	2-1	4-3	93.3
Western Michigan	3-2	4-4	89.5
Toledo	2-2	4-4	88.9
Ball State	1-3	1-7	81.5
Eastern Michigan	0-4	0-7	79.5

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	3-0	7-0	121.2
B Y U	3-1	6-2	109.8
Utah	3-0	6-1	106.8
Air Force	3-2	4-4	98.6
Colo. State	0-4	3-5	90.7
S. D. State	1-2	3-4	90.3
Wyoming	2-1	4-3	88.6
UNLV	1-3	3-5	87.4
New Mexico	0-3	0-7	74.4

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Cal	3-1	6-1	124.1
Oregon	4-0	6-1	118.5
California	2-2	5-2	115.7
Stanford	4-2	5-3	112.3
Arizona	3-1	5-2	111.4
Oregon St.	2-2	4-3	104.8
U C L A	0-4	3-4	104.1
Arizona St.	2-2	4-3	102.9
Washington	2-3	3-5	98.7
Wash. St.	0-5	1-6	76.5

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	5-0	7-0	133.2
Tennessee	1-3	3-4	111.9
Georgia	3-2	4-3	109.4
South Carolina	3-2	6-2	108.8
Kentucky	1-3	4-3	105.1
Vanderbilt	0-5	2-6	93.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	5-0	8-0	128.9
Ole Miss	2-2	5-2	116.7
L S U	4-1	6-1	113.7
Arkansas	1-4	3-4	112.5
Auburn	2-3	5-3	102.7
Mississippi State	1-3	3-5	99.4

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	4-0	5-2	98.6
Arkansas State	1-2	2-4	93.0
Middle Tennessee	2-1	4-3	89.4
Louisiana-Monroe	3-0	3-4	88.1
Florida International	1-3	1-6	85.1
Florida Atlantic	2-1	2-4	85.0
Louisiana	2-1	4-3	81.0
North Texas	0-4	1-6	77.7
Western Kentucky	0-3	0-7	72.7

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	2-0	7-0	118.6
Fresno State	3-1	4-3	102.7
Nevada	3-0	4-3	100.3
Louisiana Tech	2-2	3-4	96.2
Utah State	1-2	2-5	93.4
Idaho	3-1	6-2	90.3
San Jose State	0-2	1-5	87.1
Hawaii	0-4	2-5	82.1
New Mexico State	1-3	3-5	71.8

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, October 27		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
East Carolina	MEMPHIS	10.4	30-20	7
Wednesday, October 28		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
None
Thursday, October 29		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
VIRGINIA TECH	North Carolina	18.0	28-10	18
Friday, October 30		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
SOUTH FLORIDA	West Virginia	2.4	28-26	0
Saturday, October 31		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
CONNECTICUT	Rutgers	6.4	27-21	5
Cincinnati	SYRACUSE	18.9	31-12	21
BOSTON COLLEGE	Central Michigan	4.3	28-24	2
Ohio U	BALL STATE	5.9	20-14	10
VIRGINIA	Duke	2.1	19-17	5
IOWA	Indiana	28.7	35-6	24
WISCONSIN	Purdue	6.4	30-24	10
Miami (Fl)	WAKE FOREST	6.0	27-21	7
FLORIDA STATE	North Carolina St.	11.1	35-24	12
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Akron	12.7	27-14	17
OHIO STATE	New Mexico St.	48.6	49-0	36
Georgia Tech	VANDERBILT	22.2	31-9	20
TEXAS A&M	Iowa State	3.7	31-27	1
Ole Miss	AUBURN	10.8	31-20	1
ARKANSAS	Eastern Michigan	37.0	47-10	35
KENT STATE	Western Michigan	1.0	24-23	1
Nebraska	BAYLOR	13.0	23-10	9
TULSA	S  m  u	15.5	40-24	9
U  T  E  P	U  a  b	8.5	30-21	8
BOISE STATE	San Jose State	34.7	45-10	33
Florida      (N)	Georgia	23.8	34-10	20
Toledo	MIAMI (O)	10.9	35-24	5
OREGON STATE	U  c  l  a	3.9	27-23	9
NAVY	Temple	6.5	24-17	10
California	ARIZONA STATE	9.8	34-24	5
Michigan	ILLINOIS	8.1	31-23	10
Missouri	COLORADO	3.5	28-24	3
OKLAHOMA	Kansas State	34.1	41-7	19
Texas	OKLAHOMA STATE	16.1	40-24	9
NEVADA	Hawaii	21.7	45-23	15
T  C  U	U  n  l  v	37.0	40-3	33
Air Force	COLORADO STATE	5.2	21-16	4
Penn State	NORTHWESTERN	20.4	30-10	16
Louisiana Tech	IDAHO	2.9	31-28	6
FRESNO STATE	Utah State	12.5	27-14	18
KENTUCKY	Mississippi State	8.7	30-21	8
TEXAS TECH	Kansas	6.3	34-28	6
SAN DIEGO STATE	New Mexico	18.6	35-16	19
NOTRE DAME	Washington State	36.7	51-14	25
TENNESSEE	South Carolina	6.3	20-14	5
Southern Cal	OREGON	2.4	30-28	-4
HOUSTON	Southern Miss	8.1	35-27	11
UTAH	Wyoming	21.2	35-14	19
L  S  U	Tulane	42.2	49-7	36
Michigan State	MINNESOTA	2.1	24-22	1
LOUISVILLE	Arkansas State	1.7	26-24	3
FLORIDA INT’L	U L-Lafayette	6.6	24-17	2
NORTH TEXAS	Western Kentucky	7.5	34-26	12
Middle Tennessee	FLORIDA ATLANTIC	1.7	30-28	0
TROY	U L-Monroe	13.5	41-27	9

Bowl Projections For October 26, 2009

TCU and Boise State in Hectic Race For BCS Gold

 

The BCS bowl agreement only awards one guaranteed at-large invitation to a qualifying team from a non-BCS conference.  Two non-BCS teams can be selected for a BCS at-large bowl, but they can turn away a 12-0 team in favor of another team from a BCS conference.  Thus, if Boise State and TCU both finish 12-0, only one of the two will be guaranteed a spot in a BCS Bowl Game.  The other team could and will more than likely lose out to a 10-2 team from the Pac-10, Big 10, Big East, or SEC.

 

For our weekly Bowl Projections, we are going with TCU to finish a shade higher than Boise State and earn the automatic BCS Bowl bid.  We believe that Penn State, Southern Cal, and Florida will also earn at-large invitations, so Boise State will be excluded from the big bowls.  At 12-0, the Humanitarian won’t be good enough for the Broncos, so for the second season in a row, there will be some back room deals made.  Our bowl projections are the only ones that are factoring this as of now.

 

New Mexico: Utah vs. Nevada

This would be a great battle between Utah’s strong defense and Nevada’s eye-popping pistol offense.

 

St. Petersburg: Rutgers vs. Marshall

Mark Snyder was on the hot seat entering this season, but he has the Thundering Herd on track to finish with seven wins.  If Marshall can upset Central Florida this week, they could even jump into the CUSA Championship game.

 

New Orleans: Troy vs. UTEP

Mike Price has the Miners poised to win the CUSA’s West Division, as they already hold the tiebreaker advantage over Houston and Tulsa.  We expect them to lose in the conference championship game and slip to the Crescent City.

 

Las Vegas: Boise State vs. Cincinnati

What better place for an arranged marriage in a bowl than sin city?  We believe Boise State will run the table and, at 12-0, lose out in the BCS sweepstakes to a 10-2 team with more ticket-buying and media-garnering clout.  Like last year, the WAC will be shopping to move the Broncos up into a better bowl.  The Pac-10 will fall short by one spot if both Oregon and Southern Cal make BCS bowls and Stanford finishes 5-7. 

 

We believe Cincinnati will lose to Pittsburgh in the season finale, and the 11-1 Bearcats will also be shunned by the BCS in favor of a 10-2 team.  So, this million dollar payout bowl will set up a great match.

 

Poinsettia: B Y U vs. Oregon State

Any chance for a big bowl for these teams ended this past Saturday.  BYU’s pasting by TCU and Oregon State’s near miss at USC will move these teams down to lower tiered bowls.

 

Hawaii: Fresno State vs. Houston

Since Hawaii will not be bowl eligible this season, another WAC team will get the honors.  Fresno State would fit here quite comfortably.  As for Houston, the Cougars might deserve much better, but they still must play at Tulsa and at UCF, and they need UTEP to lose at least once.

 

Pizza (formerly Motor City): Minnesota vs. Northern Illinois

The Gophers have slipped quite a bit in recent weeks and need to recover just to gain bowl eligibility.  Northern Illinois won’t win the MAC, but we believe the Huskies will be the choice team for this bowl, sending the MAC Champ south to Mobile.

 

Meineke Car Care: Boston College vs. Connecticut

This would be an excellent regional game between teams that should be playing each other.  Connecticut would be the sixth Big East team to make a bowl, made possible by Cincinnati moving up to a better bowl than what would be available.

 

Emerald: U C L A vs. Florida State

This would be a decent attraction and a nice rematch of the 2006 game.  UCLA missed out on a bowl last year, and this could be Bobby Bowden’s final game, so it would be interesting.

 

Music City: South Carolina vs. North Carolina

These two teams played in the regular season last year, and it would be a great rivalry matchup in Nashville.  It’s a border war with two legendary coaches.

 

Independence: Kentucky vs. Kansas

These two basketball schools with familial ties would give this bowl its best matchup in years.

 

Eagle Bank: Kent State vs. Central Florida

These are two quasi at-large selections.  It looks like Army will finish 5-7 at best and fail to qualify.  If Army isn’t eligible, this bowl is supposed to take an at-large team from CUSA.  The ACC may not have a ninth team available, and this bowl is supposed to choose an at-large team from the MAC.  Kent State hasn’t been to a bowl since Coach Don James took them to the 1972 Tangerine Bowl (lost to Tampa).

 

Champ Sports: Georgia Tech vs. Michigan St.

Almost all other prognosticators are picking Georgia Tech to make it to the Orange Bowl.  We have an opposing view right now.  We think Clemson may very well run the table and oppose Tech in the ACC Championship Game.  Having already faced the spread option and actually beating themselves more than losing this game, we see CU getting revenge and plunging the Yellow Jackets to this bowl.

 

Humanitarian: Idaho vs. Kansas State

We place Idaho here after moving Boise State to a better locale.  The Vandals played here in their only bowl game 11 years ago, edging Southern Miss in a high-scoring affair.  Kansas State is the current leader in the Big 12 North, but with a concluding schedule of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska, we see them losing at least twice more.  Since the Big 12 will not produce an at-large BCS participant, we see nine bowl-eligible teams for eight spots.  The Wildcats are the odd team out and will have to go to the field of blue.

 

Holiday: Oklahoma vs. California

This might be a disappointment game as neither team will believe it a reward to play in this game after both had aspirations of greatness.

 

Armed Forces: Tulsa vs. Air Force

Tulsa’s high-powered passing game against Air Force’s option offense and strong defense will make this an interesting study in contrasts.  Air Force has been here two consecutive seasons, but for obvious reasons, they belong in this game most years.

 

Sun: Arizona vs. Texas Tech

This matchup should fill up the Sun Bowl as both teams wouldn’t have all that far to travel.  It would be a fresh pairing.

 

Texas: Texas A&M vs. Navy

Navy will automatically earn this bowl with a win over Temple this weekend.  Texas A&M joins the bowl talk after their upset over Texas Tech.  This would be an interesting and very high scoring game.

 

Insight.com: Missouri vs. Northwestern

Yes, these two teams played each other in the Alamo Bowl last year, but that game was the most exciting bowl game of all.  It would be a great rematch in a different venue.

 

Chick-fil-A: Tennessee vs. Virginia Tech

The Volunteers have now played the number one team close twice this season.  If they get by South Carolina this week, then watch out.  They could win out and move up to this game.  Interestingly, when Coach Lane Kiffin’s mentor, Pete Carroll, took over at Southern Cal, the Trojans followed this gameplan exactly, coming on strong to win out and get to seven wins.  Might Tennessee be poised to become the USC of the Southeast?

 

Outback: Ole Miss vs. Wisconsin

This isn’t the New Year’s Bowl Ole Miss expected to be playing in this year.  They had thoughts of Sugar.  Wisconsin wasn’t picked to play in a New Year’s Bowl at all, so this would be a grand reward for the Badgers, especially since it could be 70 degrees warmer in Tampa than in Madison on January 1.

 

Capital One: Ohio State vs. L S U

This is a rematch of the 2007-08 BCS Championship Game.  Ohio State would move up to this one if Penn State and Iowa both received BCS Bowl bids, and we think that will happen.

 

Gator: Notre Dame vs. Miami-FL

It’s been seven years since the Irish played in the Gator Bowl, and if they have eight or nine wins, they will be back in Jacksonville.  Having a former heated rival as an opponent makes this one a must-watch game.

 

Rose: Oregon vs. Iowa

Oregon has to beat USC in Eugene this weekend, or all bets are off in this one.  If USC wins, then the Trojans will play here and Oregon will be on the BCS bubble with Boise State.  Iowa can lose a game and still secure this bid.  We see them finishing 11-1.  Iowa’s last Rose Bowl trip was 19 years ago, while Oregon hasn’t been to Pasadena in 15 years.

 

Sugar: Florida vs. Pittsburgh

This one may look odd to you, but here’s how we decided on this pairing.  As of today, we believe Alabama would beat Florida in the SEC Championship Game and Pittsburgh would edge Cincinnati in their final regular season game.  The Sugar Bowl would get first choice to pick a replacement when Alabama earned the Top Seed.  The Sugar Bowl would then have to wait while the Fiesta and Orange Bowls selected ahead of them.  The Panthers would be what was left.

 

International: West Virginia vs. Temple

Five years ago, this would have been a conference game.  Temple is close to becoming bowl eligible.  The Owls last played in a bowl in 1979, when Mark Bright and Kevin Duckett ran all over California in the now defunct Garden State Bowl.

 

Cotton: Oklahoma State vs. Arkansas

The Cotton Bowl officials could jump over the Cowboys in favor of their arch-rival, but OSU should have at least one more win.  Arkansas is always a great draw for this bowl, and we see them earning this spot over Ole Miss.

 

PapaJohns.com: South Florida vs. Auburn

Auburn missed out on a bowl last year, and the Tigers have never played in this Birmingham bowl.  This bowl hasn’t drawn well, so this might be a great choice.

 

Liberty: Georgia vs. Southern Miss

It may be a slight stretch, but we believe Southern Miss will edge East Carolina and win the CUSA East title (forcing ECU to finish 6-6 and miss out on a bowl).  We then believe they will beat UTEP and earn this automatic bid.

 

Georgia hasn’t played in the Liberty Bowl since 1987, so this would be a decent location for the finish to a rebuilding year.

 

Alamo: Michigan vs. Nebraska

This was an excellent Alamo Bowl game four years ago, and we see it as a great repeat this year.  The Wolverines high-flying offense against the Cornhuskers’ Black Shirt defense would be a great draw.

 

Fiesta: Southern Cal vs. T C U

With Texas earning the number two ranking, the Fiesta Bowl would get the second at-large pick.  We see them taking the Trojans.  Then, after the Orange Bowl chose their at-large selection, this bowl would grab TCU over Pittsburgh.  It would be an interesting game and give the Horned Frogs a chance to show they belong among the nation’s elite for the first time since the Jim Swink days in the mid 1950’s.

 

Orange: Clemson vs. Penn State

Clemson has Coastal Carolina, Florida State, North Carolina State, Virginia, and South Carolina remaining on their schedule, and we see no impediment between the Tigers and the Atlantic Division title.  If they face Georgia Tech in a rematch, we believe they will win and win handily.  That would earn them an automatic trip to Miami.  Penn State may be the controversial choice if they are 10-2 and Boise State is 12-0 and Cincinnati 11-1, but money matters more to the bowl games.

 

G M A C: Central Michigan vs. Middle Tennessee

Central Michigan will win the MAC Championship, but since the Chippewas played in Detroit last year, we think they will be sent to Mobile this year.  We don’t see a ninth ACC team qualifying, and Middle Tennessee will earn this bowl over a half dozen 6-6 teams from bigger conferences.

 

National Championship Game: Alabama vs. Texas

These teams have faced off in several five memorable bowl games in the past.  Texas won four and the other ended in a tie.  Alabama was supposed to win all five times.  This will be an excellent game with twists and turns, and it could pit the top two vote-getters in the Heisman Trophy race as well.

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–October 21-24, 2009

Time To Start Bowl Projecting

 

With the initial BCS ranking coming out this week, it’s time for the PiRates to start projecting the bowls.  Of course, the only one that really matters is the National Championship Game.  It looks rather easy as of right now.  Most of our competitors are picking Texas to play the winner of the Florida-Alabama SEC Championship Game.  We don’t concur for one reason—we think Texas will lose one of its remaining Big 12 games.  The Longhorns have squeaked by Texas Tech and Oklahoma.  We think either Missouri, Oklahoma State, or even Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship Game could knock the Longhorns off their perch.

 

That presents a major problem for the BCS.  Boise State is sitting at number four, and the Broncos have only Idaho and Nevada left on their schedule to worry about.  BSU should run the table and could move up to number two in the Harris and USA Today polls by the end of the season.  Could a Florida or Alabama game against Boise State be possible?  We think the numbers will be fudged just enough to allow a possible rematch of the SEC championship Game for the National Championship Game.

 

Another strong possibility could leave an undefeated team in the Top 10 out of the BCS Bowl picture.  TCU could easily run the table and finish 12-0 and around number six in the final regular season poll.  The at-large rules wouldn’t guarantee the Horned Frogs an automatic at-large bid if Boise State finished undefeated and ahead of them in the BCS standings.  It would come down to one of the big bowls, like the Sugar Bowl to choose between them and a possible 10-2 Southern Cal or 11-1 Cincinnati team.

 

As of today, we are projecting Pittsburgh to edge Cincinnati for the Big East title and Oregon to beat USC in the Pac-10.  That could change, but if both the Bearcats and Trojans lose those games, they could still be selected as at-large teams over an undefeated TCU team. 

 

The PiRate Ratings have seen the top teams coming back to the pack.  Florida and Texas no longer have the big gap between them and the rest of the Top 10.  Both the Gators and Longhorns were very fortunate to come out of Saturday undefeated.

 

NCAA Top 25 For October 12, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Florida	137.4	6	0
2	Texas	133.1	6	0
3	Alabama	130.2	7	0
4	Oklahoma	129.0	3	3
5	Southern Cal	124.4	5	1
6	Va. Tech	120.5	5	2
7	T C U	117.9	6	0
8	Iowa	117.2	7	0
9	Nebraska	116.4	4	2
10	Boise St.	116.3	6	0
11	Ole Miss	116.3	4	2
12	Penn St.	116.1	6	1
13	Georgia Tech	116.1	6	1
14	Texas Tech	115.5	5	2
15	California	115.2	4	2
16	Oregon	115.1	5	1
17	Miami (Fla.)	115.0	5	1
18	Ohio St.	114.8	5	2
19	Okla. St.	114.3	5	1
20	Cincinnati	113.3	6	0
21	B  Y  U	113.1	6	1
22	Arkansas	112.9	3	3
23	Pittsburgh	112.4	6	1
24	L  S  U	112.4	5	1
25	Stanford	111.2	4	3
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	2-2	3-3	111.0
Florida State	0-3	2-4	110.0
Boston College	3-2	5-2	109.2
Wake Forest	2-2	4-3	105.5
North Carolina State	0-3	3-4	102.5
Maryland	1-2	2-5	91.5
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	3-1	5-2	120.5
Georgia Tech	4-1	6-1	116.1
Miami-FL	2-1	5-1	115.0
North Carolina	0-3	4-2	106.1
Virginia	2-0	3-3	102.3
Duke	1-1	3-3	100.8

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	2-0	6-0	113.3
Pittsburgh	3-0	6-1	112.4
South Florida	1-1	5-1	107.2
Connecticut	1-1	4-2	105.0
West Virginia	1-0	5-1	104.5
Rutgers	0-2	4-2	100.8
Louisville	0-2	2-4	92.9
Syracuse	0-2	2-4	92.6

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Iowa	3-0	7-0	117.2
Penn State	2-1	6-1	116.1
Ohio State	3-1	5-2	114.8
Michigan	1-2	5-2	104.3
Michigan State	3-1	4-3	104.0
Wisconsin	2-2	5-2	102.0
Minnesota	2-2	4-3	100.4
Purdue	1-2	2-5	98.4
Northwestern	1-2	4-3	94.9
Indiana	1-2	4-3	92.1
Illinois	0-4	1-5	91.2

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	1-1	4-2	116.4
Kansas	1-1	5-1	108.5
Missouri	0-2	4-2	105.9
Colorado	1-1	2-4	98.0
Kansas State	2-1	4-3	97.6
Iowa State	1-2	4-3	95.8
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	3-0	6-0	133.1
Oklahoma	1-1	3-3	129.0
Texas Tech	2-1	5-2	115.5
Oklahoma State	2-0	5-1	114.3
Baylor	0-2	3-3	101.6
Texas A&M	0-2	3-3	93.2

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Mississippi	2-1	4-3	100.0
East Carolina	3-1	4-3	98.6
Marshall	2-1	4-3	94.7
Central Florida	1-2	3-3	93.3
U A B	2-1	2-4	88.8
Memphis	1-3	2-5	85.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	1-1	5-1	105.6
Tulsa	2-0	4-2	101.5
U T E P	1-1	2-4	90.9
S M U	2-0	3-3	88.1
Rice	0-3	0-7	78.4
Tulane	0-3	2-4	74.8

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		4-2	109.0
Navy		5-2	101.4
Army		3-4	82.9

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	3-0	4-2	97.2
Buffalo	1-2	3-4	92.7
Ohio U	3-0	5-2	92.6
Bowling Green	2-1	3-4	88.7
Kent St.	2-1	3-4	85.1
Akron	0-3	1-5	83.9
Miami (O)	0-3	0-7	75.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	4-0	6-1	108.1
Northern Illinois	1-1	3-3	93.1
Toledo	2-1	4-3	90.2
Western Michigan	2-2	3-4	89.2
Ball State	0-3	0-7	80.7
Eastern Michigan	0-3	0-6	80.3

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	2-0	6-0	117.9
B Y U	3-0	6-1	113.1
Utah	2-0	5-1	106.5
Air Force	3-1	4-3	98.9
Colo. State	0-3	3-4	92.8
Wyoming	2-1	4-3	88.6
S. D. State	0-2	2-4	88.2
UNLV	0-3	2-5	85.4
New Mexico	0-2	0-6	76.4

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Cal	2-1	5-1	124.4
California	1-2	4-2	115.2
Oregon	3-0	5-1	115.1
Stanford	3-2	4-3	111.2
Arizona	2-1	4-2	110.7
U C L A	0-3	3-3	104.8
Oregon St.	2-1	4-2	104.5
Arizona St.	2-1	4-2	104.0
Washington	2-2	3-4	102.1
Wash. St.	0-4	1-5	77.0

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	4-0	6-0	134.9
Tennessee	1-2	3-3	110.6
Georgia	3-2	4-3	109.4
South Carolina	2-2	5-2	108.7
Kentucky	1-3	3-3	104.7
Vanderbilt	0-4	2-5	93.6
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	4-0	7-0	130.2
Ole Miss	1-2	4-2	116.3
Arkansas	1-3	3-3	112.9
L S U	3-1	5-1	112.4
Auburn	2-2	5-2	104.0
Mississippi State	1-2	3-4	97.7

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	3-0	4-2	98.4
Arkansas State	0-2	1-4	91.5
Louisiana-Monroe	3-0	3-3	88.5
Middle Tennessee	1-1	3-3	87.9
Florida International	1-2	1-5	86.6
Louisiana	2-0	4-2	83.4
Florida Atlantic	1-1	1-4	82.6
North Texas	0-3	1-5	77.9
Western Kentucky	0-2	0-6	74.2

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	1-0	6-0	116.3
Fresno State	2-1	3-3	101.8
Nevada	2-0	3-3	99.0
Louisiana Tech	2-1	3-3	96.4
Utah State	0-2	1-5	93.2
Idaho	3-0	6-1	91.6
San Jose State	0-2	1-5	87.1
Hawaii	0-3	2-4	84.4
New Mexico State	1-2	3-4	72.7

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, October 20		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
None
Wednesday, October 21		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Tulsa	U T E P	8.1	35-27	10
Thursday, October 22		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Florida State	NORTH CAROLINA	0.7	21-20	1
Friday, October 23		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Rutgers	ARMY	15.9	30-14	11
Saturday, October 24		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
MARSHALL	U  a  b	9.2	30-21	10
SYRACUSE	Akron	12.2	33-21	10
DUKE	Maryland	12.3	34-21	10
Georgia Tech	VIRGINIA	10.8	31-20	6
MIAMI (FL)	Clemson	7.0	24-17	8
PURDUE	Illinois	10.2	34-24	12
Central Michigan	BOWLING GREEN	16.9	34-17	7
NORTHWESTERN	Indiana	5.8	27-21	3
OHIO STATE	Minnesota	17.9	28-10	14
PITTSBURGH	South Florida	8.5	28-19	6
WEST VIRGINIA	Connecticut	2.7	20-17	6
SOUTH CAROLINA	Vanderbilt	18.6	26-7	21
NEBRASKA	Iowa State	24.6	28-3	16
EASTERN MICHIGAN	Ball State	2.1	22-20	-1
Northern Illinois	MIAMI (O)	15.1	28-13	15
Oklahoma State	BAYLOR	9.7	34-24	7
OHIO U	Kent State	10.2	30-20	13
Buffalo	WESTERN MICHIGAN	1.0	24-23	-5
Louisiana Tech	UTAH STATE	0.0	27-27 ot	3
NOTRE DAME	Boston College	3.3	34-31	6
ALABAMA	Tennessee	22.9	33-10	19
Oregon	WASHINGTON	9.8	34-24	11
TEXAS TECH	Texas A&M	25.3	42-17	21
Penn State	MICHIGAN	8.3	21-13	3
Oklahoma	KANSAS	17.5	35-17	5
Texas	MISSOURI	24.2	34-10	14
Wake Forest	NAVY	1.4	28-27	-6
COLORADO STATE	San Diego State	7.6	34-26	11
UTAH	Air Force	10.6	24-13	12
NEVADA	Idaho	10.4	38-28	0
ARIZONA	U  c  l  a	8.9	30-21	11
CALIFORNIA	Washington State	41.2	48-7	27
Temple	TOLEDO	4.3	24-20	-1
OLE MISS	Arkansas	6.4	27-21	3
CINCINNATI	Louisville	23.1	33-10	26
SOUTHERN MISS	Tulane	27.9	38-10	18
Central Florida	RICE	12.2	24-12	11
KANSAS STATE	Colorado	2.6	31-28	3
Iowa	MICHIGAN STATE	10.0	24-14	8
T  c  u	B  Y  U	1.6	26-24	4
Florida	MISSISSIPPI STATE	34.2	37-3	24
HOUSTON	S  m  u	20.5	52-31	16
Fresno State	NEW MEXICO STATE	26.4	33-7	21
L  S  U	Auburn	11.7	28-16	10
U  n  l  v	NEW MEXICO	6.5	24-17	6
SOUTHERN CAL	Oregon State	23.4	40-17	13
STANFORD	Arizona State	10.2	31-21	4
Boise State	HAWAII	28.4	42-14	26
UL-LAFAYETTE	Florida Atlantic	3.5	31-27	6
ARKANSAS STATE	Florida International	7.6	35-27	9
TROY	North Texas	23.5	34-10	20
KENTUCKY	Louisiana-Monroe	19.4	40-21	12
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Western Kentucky	16.4	28-12	18

 

Bowl Projections

 

Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4	Colorado St.	WAC #3	Fresno St.
St. Petersburg	Big East #6	Rutgers	C-USA #5	Marshall
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1	Troy	C-USA #4	East Carolina
Las Vegas	MWC #1	T C U	Pac 10 #4 or 5	Arizona St.
Poinsettia	MWC #2	Air Force	Pac 10 #6	U C L A
Hawaii	WAC	Nevada	C-USA	S M U
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #7	Minnesota	MAC #1 or 2	Ohio U
Meineke Car Care	ACC #5-6-7	Wake Forest	Big East #3	West Va.
Emerald	Pac 10 #4 or 5	Oregon St.	ACC #5-6-7	Virginia
Music City	SEC #6 or 7	Auburn	ACC #5-6-7	North Carolina
Independence	SEC #8	Arkansas	Big 12 #7	Kansas
Eagle Bank	ACC #8	Boston College	Army/At-large	[Northwestern]
Champs Sports	ACC #4	Clemson	Big 10 #5	Wisconsin
Humanitarian	WAC #1	Idaho	MWC	Utah
Holiday	Big 12 #3	Nebraska	Pac 10 #2	California
Armed Forces	C-USA #3	Tulsa	MWC #3	B Y U
Sun	Pac 10 #3	Arizona	Big 12 #5 or Big East #2	Oklahoma
Texas	Big 12 #8	Kansas St.	Navy or C-USA	Navy
Insight.com	Big 12 #6	Missouri	Big 10 #6	Michigan St.
Chick-fil-A	SEC #5	Georgia	ACC #2	Va. Tech
Outback	SEC #3 or 4	Ole Miss	Big 10 #3	Ohio St.
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Penn St.	SEC #2	L S U
Gator	Big East #2 or Big 12 #5	Notre Dame	ACC #3	Ga. Tech
Rose	BCS Pac10	Oregon	BCS Big 10	Iowa
Sugar	BCS SEC	Southern Cal	BCS At-Large	Cincinnati
International	Big East #5	Connecticut	MAC #3	Temple
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Oklahoma St.	SEC #3 or 4	South Carolina
Papajohns.com	Big East #4	S. Florida	SEC #9	Kentucky
Liberty	SEC #6 or 7	Tennessee	C-USA #1	Houston
Alamo	Big 10 #4	Michigan	Big 12 #4	Texas Tech
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	Texas	BCS At-Large	Boise St.
Orange	BCS ACC	Miami (Fl)	BCS At-Large	Pittsburgh
G M A C	ACC #9	[Southern Miss]	MAC	Central Mich.
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	Alabama	*** BCS #2 ***	Florida

PiRate Ratings and Bowl Projections for November 26, 2007

 PiRate Top 25 For November 26, 2007

No.	Team	Won	Lost	PiRate
1	West Virginia	10	1	129
2	Southern Cal	10	2	127
3	Florida	9	3	126
4	Missouri	11	1	125
5	Ohio State	11	1	123
6	Oklahoma	10	2	121
7	Virginia Tech	10	2	120
8	L S U	10	2	120
9	Kansas	11	1	120
10	Georgia	10	2	118
11	Arkansas	8	4	118
12	South Florida	9	3	117
13	Clemson	9	3	116
14	Oregon State	7	4	116
15	Cincinnati	9	3	115
16	Oregon	8	3	115
17	Arizona State	9	2	115
18	Tennessee	9	3	114
19	Boise State	10	2	114
20	Utah	8	4	113
21	U C L A	6	5	113
22	Boston College	10	2	112
23	Illinois	9	3	112
24	Wisconsin	9	3	112
25	Brigham Young	9	2	112

                                                  PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Clemson	5	3		9	3		410	220	116
Boston College	6	2		10	2		356	234	112
Wake Forest	5	3		8	4		338	279	111
Maryland	3	5		6	6		299	259	110
Florida State	4	4		7	5		275	263	106
North Carolina St.	3	5		5	7		249	339	94
Coastal Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Virginia Tech	7	1		10	2		351	185	120
Virginia	6	2		9	3		289	222	109
Georgia Tech	4	4		7	5		313	231	104
Miami (FL)	2	6		5	7		247	312	98
North Carolina	3	5		4	8		254	294	97
Duke	0	8		1	11		215	398	86

Big East Conference
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
West Virginia	5	1		10	1		458	194	129
South Florida	4	3		9	3		430	248	117
Cincinnati	4	3		9	3		441	223	115
Rutgers	3	3		7	4		336	221	107
Connecticut	5	2		9	3		334	223	105
Louisville	2	4		5	6		381	339	105
Pittsburgh	2	4		4	7		261	282	98
Syracuse	1	6		2	10		197	418	87

Big 10 Conference
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Ohio State	7	1		11	1		384	128	123
Illinois	6	2		9	3		345	234	112
Wisconsin	5	3		9	3		366	280	112
Penn State	4	4		8	4		365	211	111
Michigan St.	3	5		7	5		409	322	110
Michigan	6	2		8	4		313	243	108
Purdue	3	5		7	5		395	297	102
Indiana	3	5		7	5		389	321	99
Iowa	4	4		6	6		222	225	95
Northwestern	3	5		6	6		310	372	93
Minnesota	0	8		1	11		315	440	93

Big 12 Conference
North Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Missouri	7	1		11	1		505	281	125
Kansas	7	1		11	1		532	192	120
Colorado	4	4		6	6		331	353	101
Kansas St.	3	5		5	7		422	370	100
Iowa St.	2	6		3	9		218	381	95
Nebraska	2	6		5	7		401	455	95
South Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Oklahoma	6	2		10	2		526	219	121
Texas	5	3		9	3		432	295	112
Oklahoma St.	4	4		6	6		401	351	105
Texas Tech	4	4		8	4		501	309	109
Texas A&M	4	4		7	5		346	313	108
Baylor	0	8		3	9		218	411	83

Conference USA
East Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Central Fla.	7	1		9	3		455	337	105
East Carolina	6	2		7	5		362	357	97
Southern Miss.	5	3		7	5		330	283	95
Marshall	3	5		3	9		298	411	89
Memphis	6	2		7	5		353	375	87
U A B	1	7		2	10		235	421	78
West Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Tulsa	6	2		9	3		488	414	98
Houston	6	2		8	4		436	359	97
Tulane	3	5		4	8		293	285	87
Rice	3	5		3	9		374	515	85
S M U	0	8		1	11		340	477	83
U T E P	2	6		4	8		403	445	82

Independents
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Notre Dame	X	X		3	9		197	345	94
Navy	X	X		7	4		441	435	93
Army	X	X		3	8		200	326	81
Western Ky.	X	X		7	5		398	250	78

Mid-American Conference
East Division	Division			Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Bowling Green	4	2		6	2		8	4		385	354	96
Ohio U	3	3		4	4		6	6		366	359	89
Miami (OH)	4	2		5	2		6	6		250	298	89
Buffalo	4	2		5	3		5	7		291	331	86
Temple	3	3		4	4		4	8		197	315	85
Akron	2	4		3	5		4	8		254	350	84
Kent St.	1	5		1	7		3	9		259	350	80
West Division	Division			Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Western Mich.	2	3		4	4		5	7		323	347	97
Ball St.	4	1		5	2		7	5		379	316	95
Central Mich.	4	1		6	1		7	5		404	456	93
Eastern Mich.	3	3		3	4		4	8		290	374	87
Toledo	2	3		3	5		5	7		395	470	85
Northern Illinois	0	5		1	6		2	10		229	370	79

Mountain West Conference
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Utah	5	3		8	4		306	187	113
Brigham Young	7	0		9	2		326	198	112
T C U	4	4		7	5		319	230	108
Air Force	6	2		9	3		353	232	106
New Mexico	5	3		8	4		298	247	98
Colorado St.	2	6		3	9		304	369	93
San Diego St.	3	4		4	7		274	365	90
Wyoming	2	6		5	7		233	311	86
U N L V	1	7		2	10		218	343	85

Pacific 10 Conference
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Southern Cal	6	2		9	2		351	184	127
Oregon St.	5	3		7	4		303	249	116
Oregon	5	3		8	3		409	248	115
Arizona St.	6	2		9	2		366	224	115
U C L A	5	3		6	5		269	248	113
Arizona	4	4		5	6		319	302	111
California	3	5		6	5		325	293	110
Washington	2	7		4	8		352	378	107
Washington St.	3	6		5	7		308	389	104
Stanford	2	6		3	8		215	326	92

Southeastern Conference
East Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Florida	5	3		9	3		517	290	126
Georgia	6	2		10	2		383	252	118
Tennessee	6	2		9	3		420	344	114
Kentucky	3	5		7	5		440	357	110
South Carolina	3	5		6	6		313	282	108
Vanderbilt	2	6		5	7		260	271	104
West Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
L S U	6	2		10	2		482	241	120
Arkansas	4	4		8	4		478	307	118
Auburn	5	3		8	4		292	200	111
Mississippi St.	4	4		7	5		269	301	106
Alabama	4	4		6	6		322	262	105
Ole Miss	0	8		3	9		241	342	97

Sunbelt Conference
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Troy	6	0		8	3		376	257	105
La.-Monroe	4	3		6	6		282	332	91
Fla. Atlantic	5	1		6	5		323	373	90
M T S U	4	3		5	7		308	339	86
Arkansas St.	3	4		5	7		291	331	85
La.-Lafayette	3	4		3	9		285	430	83
North Texas	1	5		2	9		289	503	77
Fla. Int’l	0	6		0	11		143	450	68

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Boise St.	7	1		10	2		515	238	114
Hawaii	8	0		11	0		517	264	111
Fresno St.	5	2		7	4		357	300	102
Nevada	3	4		5	6		386	385	96
San Jose St.	4	4		5	7		245	352	92
La. Tech	4	3		5	6		239	319	88
Utah St.	2	6		2	10		247	406	84
Idaho	0	8		1	11		258	443	79
New Mexico St.	1	6		4	8		289	441	75

Bowl Projecting

We can fill in a few spots, as of Sunday night, as Navy has officially accepted a bid to the Poinsettia Bowl, Memphis is headed to the New Orleans Bowl, Houston is going to the Texas Bowl, and Southern Miss. is headed to the Papa Johns Bowl.

The BCS At-large hopefuls have been restructured.  Oregon’s third loss knocked the Ducks out of the water.  UCLA is not only bowl eligible after the win, the Bruins can actually gain the Rose Bowl bid if they beat USC and Arizona beats Arizona State.  In a three-way tie with USC and ASU, UCLA wins the tiebreaker; all three teams would be 1-1 in head-up competition, but UCLA is the only of the trio to beat the number four team (Oregon).  Georgia and Kansas can probably go ahead and figure on receiving an at-large bid.  Hawaii need only to beat Washington to become at-large number three.  If Arizona State can beat Arizona, the Sun Devils have a great chance to be number four.  If ASU falters, then Illinois could back into an at-large Bowl by finishing ahead of the Virginia Tech-Boston College loser.

West Virginia needs only to beat Pittsburgh Saturday to advance to the National Championship Game.  If Missouri beats Oklahoma, the Tigers will be the Mountaineers opponent.  Should Oklahoma win, then Ohio State will play West Virginia.  Now, if Oklahoma wins and Pitt upsets WVU, then would you believe Georgia would more than likely play Ohio State for the title?

Bowl	Tie-in	Tie-in	PiRate Pick	PiRate Pick
Poinsettia	MWC #2	Navy/At-Large	Utah 8-4	Navy 8-4
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1	CUSA #3-4-5	Troy 9-3	Memphis 7-5
Papa Johns	CUSA #3-4-5	Big East #4-5	Southern Miss. 7-5	Rutgers 7-5
New Mexico	W A C (no #)	MWC #4	Nevada 6-6	New Mexico 7-5
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-10 #4-5	B Y U 10-2	Oregon St. 7-5
Hawaii	W A C (no #)	CUSA #3-4-5	Fresno St. 8-4	Tulsa 9-4
Motor City	Big 10 #7	MAC #1-2	Indiana 7-5	Bowling Green 8-4
Holiday	Pac-10 #2	Big 12 #3	Oregon 9-3	Texas 9-3
Champs Sports	ACC #4	Big 10 #5	Virginia 9-3	Michigan 8-4
Texas	Big 12 #8	CUSA #6	[New Mexico 8-4*]	Houston 8-4
Emerald	Pac-10 #4-5	ACC #5-6-7	U C L A 6-6	Maryland 6-6
Meineke Car Care	ACC #5-6-7	Big East #3	Wake Forest 8-4	Cincinnati 9-3
Liberty	CUSA #1	SEC #6-7	Central Fla. 10-3	Kentucky 7-5
Alamo	Big 10 #4	Big 12 #4-5	Penn State 8-4	Texas A&M 7-5
Independence	SEC #8	Big 12 #7	Mississippi St. 7-5	Colorado 6-6
Armed Forces	MWC #3	Pac-10 #6	Air Force 9-3	[Purdue 7-5 *]
Sun	Big East #2 @	Pac-10 #3	South Florida 9-3	California 7-5
Humanitarian	W A C (no #)	ACC #8	Boise St. 10-2	Florida St. 7-5
Music City	ACC #5-6-7	SEC #6-7	Georgia Tech 7-5	Alabama 6-6
Chick-Fil-A	ACC #2	SEC #3-4-5	Clemson 9-3	Tennessee 9-4
Insight	Big 12 #6	Big 10 #6	Oklahoma St. 6-6	Mich. State 7-5
Outback	Big 10 #3	SEC #3-4-5	Wisconsin 9-3	Auburn 8-4
Cotton	SEC #3-4-5	Big 12 #2	Arkansas 8-4	Oklahoma 10-3
Gator	Big 12 #4 @	ACC #3	Texas Tech 8-4	Boston Coll. 10-3
Capital One	Big 10 #2	SEC #2	Illinois 9-3	Florida 9-3
Rose	BCS	BCS	Southern Cal 10-2	Ohio State 11-1
Sugar	BCS	BCS	L S U 11-2	Hawaii 12-0
Fiesta	BCS	BCS	Kansas 11-1	Arizona St. 10-2
Orange	BCS	BCS	Virginia Tech 11-2	Georgia 10-2
International	MAC #3	Big East #4-5	Ball St. 7-5	Connecticut 9-3
G M A C	MAC #1-2	CUSA #2	Central Mich. 8-5	East Carolina 7-5
Nat’l Championship	BCS #1	BCS #2	West Va. 11-1	Missouri 12-1
[*] Fills a vacant slot because aligned conference cannot supply enough bowl eligible teams
@ These slots are interchangeable
Notre Dame will not be bowl eligible this year, so I have not included them in the tie-ins

PiRate Ratings and Bowl Projections for Monday, November 19, 2007

Good bye Oregon and Oklahoma.  That leaves LSU, West Virginia, Ohio State, and the Kansas-Missouri winner as the four main contenders for the big prize.  If you ask me who would win in a 12 or 16-team tournament, I’m not sure any of these five would be the team I picked.  It’s not because these five teams aren’t the five best, but in a year like this who’s to say that a Boise State wouldn’t get to the finals?  Or, could Southern Cal decide to play like they were supposed to play and clobber everybody.  Remember, the PiRate Ratings will conduct a computer simulated 12-team playoff here in December.

There’s a new number one team in the PiRate Top 25.  With Oregon losing quarterback Dennis Dixon and the game to Arizona, West Virginia ascends to the top spot.  They won at Cincinnati by the margin they were expected to win.  LSU didn’t cover against lowly Ole Miss and thus dropped a little.  The difference in the top seven teams is just 1.44 points (West Virginia is 123.83 and Kansas is 122.39), and less than two touchdowns separate the number one and number 25 team.

PiRate Top 25 For Monday, November 19, 2007

No.	Team	Won	Lost	PiRate
1	West Virginia	9	1	124
2	Missouri	10	1	123
3	Ohio State	11	1	123
4	Southern Cal	9	2	123
5	Florida	8	3	123
6	L S U	10	1	123
7	Kansas	11	0	122
8	Oregon	8	2	121
9	Arizona State	9	1	119
10	Virginia Tech	9	2	119
11	Georgia	9	2	118
12	South Florida	8	3	118
13	Boise State	10	1	117
14	Oklahoma	9	2	116
15	Cincinnati	8	3	116
16	Clemson	8	3	116
17	Oregon State	7	4	116
18	Utah	8	3	115
19	Texas	9	2	114
20	Tennessee	8	3	114
21	Arkansas	7	4	114
22	Boston College	9	2	113
23	Illinois	9	3	112
24	Wisconsin	9	3	112
25	Brigham Young	8	2	111

 

   PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Clemson	5	3		8	3		387	199	116
Boston College	5	2		9	2		328	220	113
Wake Forest	5	3		7	4		307	262	109
Florida State	4	4		7	4		263	218	109
Maryland	2	5		5	6		262	259	105
North Carolina St.	3	4		5	6		249	302	99
Coastal Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Virginia Tech	6	1		9	2		318	164	119
Virginia	6	1		9	2		268	191	110
Georgia Tech	4	4		7	4		296	200	104
North Carolina	2	5		3	8		234	280	100
Miami (FL)	2	5		5	6		233	284	97
Duke	0	7		1	10		201	378	83
Big East Conference Conference   Overall Team Won Lost   Won Lost Pts Opp Rating West Virginia 4 1   9 1 392 173 124 South Florida 3 3   8 3 382 211 118 Cincinnati 3 3   8 3 389 192 116 Connecticut 5 1   9 2 313 157 110 Rutgers 3 3   7 4 336 221 107 Louisville 2 4   5 6 381 339 105 Pittsburgh 2 3   4 6 224 234 97 Syracuse 1 5   2 9 166 366 86

 

Big 10 Conference
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Ohio State	7	1		11	1		384	128	123
Illinois	6	2		9	3		345	234	112
Wisconsin	5	3		9	3		366	280	112
Penn State	4	4		8	4		365	211	111
Michigan St.	3	5		7	5		409	322	110
Michigan	6	2		8	4		313	243	108
Purdue	3	5		7	5		395	297	102
Indiana	3	5		7	5		389	321	99
Iowa	4	4		6	6		222	225	95
Northwestern	3	5		6	6		310	372	93
Minnesota	0	8		1	11		315	440	93

Big 12 Conference
North Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Missouri	6	1		10	1		469	253	123
Kansas	7	0		11	0		504	156	122
Kansas St.	3	5		5	6		393	325	103
Colorado	3	4		5	6		266	302	100
Iowa St.	2	6		3	9		218	381	95
Nebraska	2	5		5	6		350	390	96
South Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Oklahoma	5	2		9	2		477	202	116
Texas	5	2		9	2		402	257	114
Oklahoma St.	4	3		6	5		384	302	110
Texas Tech	4	4		8	4		501	309	109
Texas A&M	3	4		6	5		308	283	106
Baylor	0	8		3	9		218	411	83

Conference USA
East Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Central Fla.	6	1		8	3		419	317	106
Southern Miss.	5	3		6	5		314	273	97
East Carolina	5	2		6	5		327	345	95
Marshall	2	5		2	9		252	372	91
Memphis	5	2		6	5		298	323	89
U A B	1	6		2	9		196	375	76
West Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Tulsa	5	2		8	3		440	371	99
Houston	6	2		7	4		377	353	97
Tulane	3	4		4	7		281	350	89
Rice	3	4		3	8		331	467	84
U T E P	2	5		4	7		383	409	81
S M U	0	7		1	10		288	422	81

Independents
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Navy	X	X		7	4		441	435	93
Notre Dame	X	X		2	9		176	331	92
Army	X	X		3	8		200	326	81
Western Ky.	X	X		7	4		372	223	78

Mid-American Conference
East Division	Division			Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Bowling Green	4	2		5	2		7	4		348	344	93
Miami (OH)	4	1		5	1		6	5		211	260	91
Ohio U	2	3		3	4		5	6		328	330	87
Buffalo	3	2		4	3		4	7		261	308	86
Temple	3	3		4	3		4	7		194	299	85
Akron	2	4		3	4		4	7		222	315	84
Kent St.	1	4		1	6		3	8		236	320	80
West Division	Division			Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Western Mich.	2	3		2	4		4	7		307	344	97
Ball St.	3	1		4	2		6	5		352	295	96
Central Mich.	4	1		5	1		6	5		369	424	93
Toledo	2	3		3	4		5	6		385	433	88
Eastern Mich.	3	3		3	4		4	8		290	374	87
Northern Illinois	0	4		1	5		2	9		208	343	78

Mountain West Conference
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Utah	5	2		8	3		296	170	115
Brigham Young	6	0		8	2		309	188	111
T C U	3	4		6	5		274	197	108
Air Force	6	2		9	3		353	232	106
New Mexico	4	3		7	4		271	241	97
Colorado St.	1	6		2	9		268	341	93
San Diego St.	3	3		4	6		241	320	90
Wyoming	2	5		5	6		205	275	86
U N L V	1	6		2	9		212	316	86

Pacific 10 Conference
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Southern Cal	5	2		8	2		307	160	123
Oregon	5	2		8	2		409	232	121
Arizona St.	6	1		9	1		342	180	119
Oregon St.	5	3		7	4		303	249	116
Arizona	4	4		5	6		319	302	111
California	3	5		6	5		325	293	110
Washington	2	6		4	7		317	336	110
U C L A	4	3		5	5		253	248	109
Washington St.	2	6		4	7		266	354	101
Stanford	2	6		3	7		201	305	95

Southeastern Conference
East Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Florida	5	3		8	3		472	278	123
Georgia	6	2		9	2		352	235	118
Tennessee	5	2		8	3		368	294	114
Kentucky	3	4		7	4		390	305	110
South Carolina	3	5		6	5		292	259	108
Vanderbilt	2	6		5	6		243	240	106
West Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
L S U	6	1		10	1		434	191	123
Arkansas	3	4		7	4		428	259	114
Auburn	4	3		7	4		275	190	111
Mississippi St.	3	4		6	5		252	284	107
Alabama	4	3		6	5		312	245	105
Ole Miss	0	7		3	8		227	325	96

Sunbelt Conference
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Troy	5	0		7	3		331	250	101
La.-Monroe	3	3		5	6		265	321	91
M T S U	4	2		5	6		301	294	90
Fla. Atlantic	4	1		5	5		268	350	87
Arkansas St.	3	4		5	6		281	315	83
La.-Lafayette	3	3		3	8		274	413	83
North Texas	1	5		1	9		252	477	77
Fla. Int’l	0	5		0	10		120	395	71

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Boise St.	7	0		10	1		486	201	117
Hawaii	7	0		10	0		480	235	107
Fresno St.	5	2		6	4		312	271	99
Nevada	3	3		5	5		362	358	97
San Jose St.	3	4		4	7		218	328	91
La. Tech	4	3		5	6		239	319	88
Utah St.	1	6		1	10		223	387	84
Idaho	0	7		1	10		239	419	79
New Mexico St.	1	6		4	8		289	441	75

Bowl Projections

Navy is still the only team that knows for sure where they will be heading in the postseason.  Ohio State can almost make plans for Pasadena and the Rose Bowl, but if Oklahoma wins the Big 12 and either West Virginia or LSU loses, they could be back in the National Championship Game in New Orleans.

In the ACC, Boston College has clinched a spot in the ACC Title Game, and they will play the winner of this week’s Virginia-Virginia Tech game.  Clemson now must beat South Carolina to stay in shape for a Gator Bowl Bid.  The winner of the North Carolina State-Maryland game will earn the Humanitarian Bowl bid.  This week, it’s my turn to pick Maryland to be that lucky recipient of the blue field game.

In the Big East, West Virginia still must defeat Connecticut to take the conference crown.  The Huskies are prohibitive underdogs, but they weren’t expected to make it this far either.

In the Southeastern Conference, Alabama’s loss to Louisiana-Monroe throws a monkey wrench into the bowl situation.  A loss to Auburn will leave the Tide at 6-6.  South Carolina will finish 6-6 if they lose to Clemson.  Mississippi State would fall to 6-6 if Ole Miss takes the Egg Bowl, and Vanderbilt could finish 6-6 with a mild upset over Wake Forest.  If Tennessee beats Kentucky, then Georgia will walk into an at-large BCS bowl.  That means nine teams will get bowl bids.  If three or four teams finish 6-6, there will be a lot of lobbying for the one or two bowls available.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Commissioner Mike Slive arranged for one bowl to “overlook” a Kentucky or Arkansas in favor of a 6-6 team, so that the “jilted” 7-5 team can then fill an at-large spot somewhere else, giving the SEC 10 bowl teams.

The Big 10 is finished, and 10 of the 11 schools are bowl eligible.  Don’t count on Iowa or Northwestern getting a bowl.  I think Purdue will be the 7-5 team left out of the allotments, but the Boilermakers will definitely get an at-large invitation.

The Big 12 would have clinched a spot in the National Championship Game if Oklahoma had won Saturday night and then against Oklahoma State.  Now, if Oklahoma wins the Big12 title, they will be headed to the Fiesta Bowl and another conference will luck out.  This week’s Kansas-Missouri game is almost as important and crucial as last year’s Ohio State-Michigan game.

The Pac-10 is pretty much out of the national title picture.  Even if Arizona State blows out Southern Cal and Arizona, I cannot see them moving up to number two.  Southern Cal can still sneak into the Rose Bowl with wins over ASU and UCLA and an Oregon loss to either UCLA or Oregon State.  With Washington State losing to Oregon State, it means that Arizona and UCLA would have to post big upsets for the Pac-10 to fulfill all its bowl allotments.

Boise State has moved into contention for an at-large BCS bowl bid if they win convincingly at Hawaii.  If Hawaii wins the game, the Warriors are probably Sugar Bowl-bound.

It looks like there will be three teams with 7-5 records and no automatic bowl berth.  Since it looks like there will be three at-large bids available, it looks all the 6-6 teams looking for a bowl can put away the practice gear until spring.  The MAC looks to be sitting in the catbird seat again this year.  Four teams should finish with winning records, and the league has three bowl slots.  Ball State might be the lucky recipient of an at-large bid.  Joining the Cardinals and Purdue will be New Mexico.  The Lobos at 8-4 are not permitted to go to the New Mexico Bowl this year if an extra bowl eligible team emerges from the MWC.  TCU must beat a lowly San Diego State team to finish 7-5.  That will send New Mexico to an at-large bowl.

 

Bowl	Tie-in	Tie-in	PiRate Pick	PiRate Pick
Poinsettia	MWC #2	Navy/At-Large	Utah 9-3	Navy 8-4
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1	CUSA #3-4-5	Troy 9-3	East Carolina 7-5
Papa Johns	CUSA #3-4-5	Big East #4-5	Southern Miss. 7-5	Rutgers 7-5
New Mexico	W A C (no #)	MWC #4	Nevada 7-5	T C U 7-5
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-10 #4-5	B Y U 9-3	[Purdue 7-5 *]
Hawaii	W A C (no #)	CUSA #3-4-5	Hawaii 11-1	Houston 8-4
Motor City	Big 10 #7	MAC #1-2	Indiana 7-5	Bowling Green 8-4
Holiday	Pac-10 #2	Big 12 #3	Southern Cal 9-3	Oklahoma 10-3
Champs Sports	ACC #4	Big 10 #5	Virginia 9-3	Michigan 8-4
Texas	Big 12 #8	CUSA #6	[New Mexico 8-4 *]	Memphis 7-5
Emerald	Pac-10 #4-5	ACC #7	Oregon St. 7-5	Wake Forest 7-5
Meineke Car Care	ACC #6	Big East #3	Florida St. 7-5	Cincinnati 9-3
Liberty	CUSA #1	SEC #6-7	Cent. Florida 10-3	Alabama 6-6
Alamo	Big 10 #4	Big 12 #4-5	Penn St. 8-4	Texas A&M 6-6
Independence	SEC #8	Big 12 #7	Miss. State 7-5	Colorado 6-6
Armed Forces	MWC #3	Pac-10 #6	Air Force 9-3	[Ball St. 7-5 *]
Sun	Big East #2 @	Pac-10 #3	South Florida 9-3	California 7-5
Humanitarian	W A C (no #)	ACC #8	Fresno St. 8-4	Maryland 6-6
Music City	ACC #5	SEC #6-7	Georgia Tech 7-5	Arkansas 7-5
Chick-Fil-A	ACC #2	SEC #3-4-5	Clemson 9-3	Kentucky 7-5
Insight	Big 12 #6	Big 10 #6	Oklahoma St. 6-6	Mich. State 7-5
Outback	Big 10 #3	SEC #3-4-5	Wisconsin 9-3	Tennessee 9-4
Cotton	SEC #3-4-5	Big 12 #2	Auburn 8-4	Texas 10-2
Gator	Big 12 #4 @	ACC #3	Texas Tech 8-4	Boston Coll. 10-3
Capital One	Big 10 #2	SEC #2	Illinois 9-3	Florida 9-3
Rose	BCS	BCS	Ariz. St. 11-1	Ohio St. 11-1
Sugar	BCS	BCS	West Va. 11-1	Boise St. 11-1
Fiesta	BCS	BCS	Georgia 10-2	Oregon 10-2
Orange	BCS	BCS	Va. Tech 11-2	Kansas 11-1
International	MAC #3	Big East #4-5	Miami (O) 7-6	Connecticut 9-3
G M A C	MAC #1-2	CUSA #2	Central Mich. 8-5	Tulsa 9-4
Nat’l Championship	BCS #1	BCS #2	L S U 12-1	Missouri 12-1
[*] Fills a vacant slot because aligned conference cannot supply enough bowl eligible teams
@ These slots are interchangeable
Notre Dame will not be bowl eligible this year, so I have not included them in the tie-ins

 

Tuesday, November 20 Game

Middle Tennessee at Troy:  The PiRates favor Troy by 15 points with an expected score of 35-20.  The Mean Rating favors Troy by 14 points with an expected score of 35-21.

PiRate Ratings and Bowl Projections for November 12, 2007

 PiRate Top 25 For November 12, 2007

No.	Team	Won	Lost	PiRate
1	Oregon	8	1	126
2	L S U	9	1	125
3	West Virginia	8	1	124
4	Missouri	9	1	123
5	Southern Cal	9	2	123
6	Florida	7	3	123
7	Ohio State	10	1	122
8	Clemson	8	2	120
9	Kansas	10	0	119
10	Oklahoma	9	1	119
11	Arizona State	9	1	119
12	Georgia	8	2	118
13	Virginia Tech	8	2	117
14	Boise State	9	1	116
15	Cincinnati	8	2	116
16	Tennessee	7	3	116
17	Utah	7	3	116
18	Texas	9	2	114
19	Wisconsin	8	3	114
20	South Florida	7	3	114
21	Arkansas	6	4	114
22	California	6	4	113
23	Illinois	8	3	112
24	Oregon State	6	4	112
25	Penn State	8	3	111

                                   PiRates By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Clemson	5	2		8	2		370	179	120
Boston College	4	2		8	2		308	203	110
Florida State	3	4		6	4		239	202	109
Wake Forest	4	3		6	4		269	244	107
Maryland	2	4		5	5		246	235	105
North Carolina St.	3	3		5	5		231	264	101
Coastal Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Virginia Tech	5	1		8	2		274	150	117
Virginia	6	1		9	2		268	191	110
Georgia Tech	3	4		6	4		269	175	106
Miami (FL)	2	4		5	5		219	240	100
North Carolina	2	4		3	7		209	253	98
Duke	0	7		1	9		194	350	86

Big East Conference
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
West Virginia	3	1		8	1		364	150	124
Cincinnati	3	2		8	2		366	164	116
South Florida	2	3		7	3		327	194	114
Louisville	2	3		5	5		364	284	111
Connecticut	4	1		8	2		283	150	110
Rutgers	2	3		6	4		316	205	110
Pittsburgh	2	2		4	5		208	214	95
Syracuse	1	4		2	8		159	336	86

Big 10 Conference
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Ohio State	6	1		10	1		370	125	122
Wisconsin	4	3		8	3		325	246	114
Illinois	5	2		8	3		304	212	112
Penn State	4	3		8	3		334	176	111
Michigan St.	2	5		6	5		374	291	110
Michigan	6	1		8	3		310	229	109
Purdue	3	4		7	4		371	270	104
Iowa	4	4		6	5		203	197	98
Indiana	2	5		6	5		352	297	97
Northwestern	3	4		6	5		288	331	93
Minnesota	0	7		1	10		281	399	91

Big 12 Conference
North Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Missouri	5	1		9	1		420	221	123
Kansas	6	0		10	0		459	149	119
Kansas St.	3	4		5	5		361	276	103
Colorado	3	4		5	6		266	302	100
Iowa St.	2	5		3	8		211	336	98
Nebraska	2	5		5	6		350	390	96
South Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Oklahoma	5	1		9	1		450	168	119
Texas	5	2		9	2		402	257	114
Oklahoma St.	3	3		5	5		339	288	108
Texas Tech	3	4		7	4		467	282	106
Texas A&M	3	4		6	5		308	283	106
Baylor	0	7		3	8		204	396	85

Conference USA
East Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Central Fla.	5	1		7	3		370	297	103
East Carolina	5	2		6	5		327	345	95
Southern Miss.	4	3		5	5		258	243	94
Marshall	2	4		2	8		224	337	90
Memphis	4	2		5	5		273	314	89
U A B	1	5		2	8		187	350	76
West Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Tulsa	5	2		7	3		391	332	101
Houston	5	2		6	4		342	325	98
Rice	3	3		3	7		300	422	88
Tulane	2	4		3	7		236	319	86
U T E P	2	4		4	6		353	353	85
S M U	0	6		1	9		268	373	85

Independents
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Navy	X	X		6	4		406	411	94
Notre Dame	X	X		1	9		148	324	90
Army	X	X		3	7		161	277	80
Western Ky.	X	X		6	4		320	211	78

Mid-American Conference
East Division	Division			Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Miami (OH)	3	1		4	1		5	5		204	260	92
Bowling Green	3	2		4	2		6	4		317	327	90
Buffalo	3	1		4	2		4	6		244	277	89
Ohio U	2	3		3	4		5	6		328	330	87
Kent St.	1	3		1	5		3	7		222	296	83
Temple	2	3		3	3		3	7		170	285	83
Akron	2	3		3	3		4	6		222	308	83
West Division	Division			Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Central Mich.	4	0		5	0		6	4		324	376	97
Ball St.	2	1		3	2		5	5		311	275	94
Western Mich.	2	3		2	4		3	7		279	325	94
Toledo	2	2		3	3		5	5		365	392	90
Eastern Mich.	2	3		2	4		3	8		242	329	83
Northern Illinois	0	4		1	5		2	8		184	308	77

Mountain West Conference
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Utah	4	2		7	3		268	160	116
Brigham Young	5	0		7	2		274	178	108
T C U	2	4		5	5		240	187	108
Air Force	5	2		8	3		298	209	103
New Mexico	4	2		7	3		261	213	96
San Diego St.	3	2		4	5		218	265	93
Colorado St.	1	6		1	9		226	307	93
Wyoming	2	4		5	5		195	240	89
U N L V	1	5		2	8		202	282	86

Pacific 10 Conference
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Oregon	5	1		8	1		385	198	126
Southern Cal	5	2		8	2		307	160	123
Arizona St.	6	1		9	1		342	180	119
California	3	4		6	4		302	256	113
Oregon St.	4	3		6	4		251	232	112
U C L A	4	3		5	5		253	248	109
Arizona	3	4		4	6		285	278	108
Washington	1	6		3	7		280	313	107
Washington St.	2	5		4	6		249	302	106
Stanford	2	6		3	7		201	305	95

Southeastern Conference
East Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Florida	5	3		7	3		413	258	123
Georgia	5	2		8	2		328	222	118
Tennessee	4	2		7	3		343	270	116
Kentucky	3	3		7	3		377	281	110
South Carolina	3	5		6	5		292	259	108
Vanderbilt	2	5		5	5		219	215	104
West Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
L S U	5	1		9	1		393	167	125
Arkansas	2	4		6	4		383	228	114
Auburn	4	3		7	4		275	190	111
Alabama	4	3		6	4		298	224	110
Mississippi St.	3	3		6	4		221	239	107
Ole Miss	0	6		3	7		203	284	94

Sunbelt Conference
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Troy	5	0		7	3		331	250	101
M T S U	4	2		5	6		301	294	90
La.-Monroe	3	3		4	6		244	307	88
Fla. Atlantic	4	1		5	4		248	291	87
Arkansas St.	2	4		4	6		250	288	84
La.-Lafayette	2	3		2	8		236	385	83
North Texas	1	4		1	8		225	446	76
Fla. Int’l	0	4		0	9		92	357	71

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Boise St.	6	0		9	1		428	187	116
Hawaii	6	0		9	0		452	209	108
Fresno St.	5	2		6	4		312	271	99
Nevada	3	2		5	4		336	330	96
San Jose St.	3	3		4	6		195	301	91
La. Tech	3	3		4	6		212	296	88
Utah St.	0	6		0	10		188	370	81
New Mexico St.	1	5		4	7		272	406	80
Idaho	0	6		1	9		225	361	80

This Week’s Bowl Probabilities

 

Raise you hands if you predicted all of the newest round of upsets and surprise finishes this past weekend.  If your hand is up, you need to re-read the Ninth Commandment.

Where do we start?  Let’s go alphabetically by conference.  In the ACC, Virginia probably ended Miami’s bowl expectations.  Maryland upsetting Boston College just prolonged the Terps’ fate an extra week.  With road games at Florida St. and North Carolina St., UM is still looking at 5-7.  The Wolfpack’s win over North Carolina made it four straight wins, and they look like a virtual lock to rally from a 1-5 start to a bowl game.

In the Big East, Cincinnati has set up an interesting home game with West Virginia this week.  If the Bearcats can pull off the upset, they are headed to a BCS Bowl game.  Louisville’s loss to the Mountaineers means the Cardinals will have to win at South Florida and at home against Rutgers or it’s bye-bye bowl.

The Big 10 has 10 bowl eligible teams and seven bowl slots.  Ohio State’s loss means no National Championship Game (why does their 7-point loss to 7-3 Illinois hurt more than LSU’s 8-point loss to 7-3 Kentucky?).  One Big 10 team will finish with a 7-5 record and be forced to look for an at-large spot. 

The Big 12 is almost assured of getting a second BCS Bowl Bid, and because of that, this conference should leave one slot unfilled.  Kansas State has collapsed and is headed to 5-7.  The Colorado-Nebraska winner will get a bowl bid, while the loser stays home at 5-7.

Conference USA saw some major restructuring as both divisional leaders lost.  Tulsa just tore Houston to shreds, while 1-8 Marshall clobbered East Carolina.  Memphis upset Southern Mississippi.  This means the league should have six bowl eligible teams for the six allotted slots.

How about Navy?  How can a team giving up 41.1 points per game be bowl eligible and assured of getting a bid?  Score 74 points, that’s how.

The Mid American Conference is going to have four seven-win teams.  Since they only have three bowl tie-ins, one team is going to be left out.  However, as you will see in the bowl projections below, that team is going to be fortunate and steal an at-large bid.

The same holds true for the Mountain West.  Five teams are headed to winning records, but there are only four bowl bids available.  Look below to find where TCU is headed as an at-large invitee.

The most generous conference is going to be the Pac-10.  I am picking this league to supply two BCS bowl participants, and thanks to this past weekend’s action, UCLA and Washington have seen the logical end to their bowl aspirations and Stanford has been eliminated.  Arizona and Washington State still have miniscule chances by winning out, and I don’t see that happening.  So, this league will leave two slots unfilled. 

The Southeastern Conference finds itself in the same boat as the Big 10.  Ten teams are already bowl eligible, and as of today the PiRates pick Vanderbilt to beat Wake Forest for win number six and become bowl eligible number 11.  If Tennessee wins out against Vandy and Kentucky, they will take the East Division crown.  That will give Georgia a chance to beat Kentucky and Ga. Tech and avoid LSU in the title game to finish 10-2 and earn an at-large BCS bowl bid.  Since the league gets eight regular bids, this will leave room for nine bowl bids.  South Carolina and Vanderbilt would be left out in the cold at 6-6.

Troy basically has the Sunbelt all wrapped up.  Florida Atlantic could still cop the crown by winning at Troy.

The WAC now throws a curve ball into the entire plan.  Up to this point, it was a near foregone conclusion that Hawaii would go 12-0 and finish ranked higher than one of the automatic BCS qualifiers and thus qualify for a BCS bowl.  Now, the PiRates believe that Boise State will win at Hawaii and end the Warriors BCS hopes.  Might Boise State finish higher than the ACC champ (say Clemson), or Michigan if the Wolverines beat Ohio State, or Tennessee if the Vols won the SEC Championship?  At 11-1, Hawaii might become an attractive team for the Las Vegas Bowl if the Pac-10 cannot supply a team.  That would leave the Hawaii Bowl open for an at-large team, thus sending the proposed at-large team from Vegas to Honolulu.

Here are this week’s projections.

Bowl	Tie-in	Tie-in	PiRate Pick	PiRate Pick
Poinsettia	MWC #2	Navy/At-Large	Utah 9-3	Navy 8-4
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1	CUSA #3-4-5	Troy 9-3	East Carolina 7-5
Papa Johns	CUSA #3-4-5	Big East #4-5	Sou. Miss. 7-5	Rutgers 7-5
New Mexico	W A C (no #)	MWC #4	Nevada 7-5	New Mexico 8-4
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-10 #4-5	B Y U 9-3	Michigan St. 7-5 *
Hawaii	W A C (no #)	CUSA #3-4-5	Hawaii 11-1	Houston 8-4
Motor City	Big 10 #7	MAC #1-2	Iowa 7-5	Bowling Green 7-5
Holiday	Pac-10 #2	Big 12 #3	Southern Cal 9-3	Texas 10-2
Champs Sports	ACC #4	Big 10 #5	Virginia 9-3	Michigan 8-4
Texas	Big 12 #8	CUSA #6	T C U 7-5 *	Memphis 7-5
Emerald	Pac-10 #4-5	ACC #7	Oregon St. 7-5	Wake Forest 7-5
Meineke Car Care	ACC #6	Big East #3	Georgia Tech 7-5	Cincinnati 9-3
Liberty	CUSA #1	SEC #6-7	Central Fla. 10-3	Kentucky 7-5
Alamo	Big 10 #4	Big 12 #4-5	Penn St. 8-4	Texas A&M 6-6
Independence	SEC #8	Big 12 #7	Miss. State 7-5	Colorado 6-6
Armed Forces	MWC #3	Pac-10 #6	Air Force 9-3	Ball St. 7-5 *
Sun	Big East #2 @	Pac-10 #3	Texas Tech 7-5	California 8-4
Humanitarian	W A C (no #)	ACC #8	Fresno St. 8-4	N.C. State 6-6
Music City	ACC #5	SEC #6-7	Florida St. 7-5	Arkansas 7-5
Chick-Fil-A	ACC #2	SEC #3-4-5	Boston Coll. 9-3	Alabama 7-5
Insight	Big 12 #6	Big 10 #6	Oklahoma St. 6-6	Purdue 8-4
Outback	Big 10 #3	SEC #3-4-5	Illinois 9-3	Florida 9-3
Cotton	SEC #3-4-5	Big 12 #2	Auburn 8-4	Oklahoma 11-2
Gator	Big 12 #4 @	ACC #3	S. Florida 9-3	Va. Tech 10-3
Capital One	Big 10 #2	SEC #2	Wisconsin 9-3	Tennessee 9-4
Rose	BCS	BCS	Ohio St. 11-1	Arizona St. 11-1
Sugar	BCS	BCS	West Virginia 11-1	Boise St. 11-1
Fiesta	BCS	BCS	Missouri 12-1	Georgia 10-2
Orange	BCS	BCS	Clemson 11-2	Kansas 11-1
International	MAC #3	Big East #4-5	Miami (O) 7-6	Connecticut 9-3
G M A C	MAC #1-2	CUSA #2	Central Mich. 9-4	Tulsa 9-4
Nat’l Championship	BCS #1	BCS #2	L S U 12-1	Oregon 11-1
* Fills a vacant slot because aligned conference cannot supply enough bowl eligible teams
Italics: Team has already been invited to this bowl @ The Big 12 and Big East slots are interchangeable in these bowls
Notre Dame will not be bowl eligible this year, so I have not included them in the tie-ins

Those Dreadful Tuesday-Wednesday Games

 

Tuesday: Toledo at Ball State

The PiRates predict Ball State to pick up their sixth win and take the Rockets by seven points with a predicted score of 38-31.  The Mean Rating calls for Ball State to win by 12 with a predicted score of 40-28.

Wednesday: Akron at Miami (O)

The PiRates predict Miami to wrap up the MAC East race with a 12-point win and with a predicted score of 35-23.  The Mean Rating calls for Miami to win by eight with a score of 28-20.