NFL Preview For Week 17: January 3, 2016

Playoffs Simplified

If you have been to some of the big box sports sites, they have not made it easy to decipher their playoff possibilities.  If X wins and Y loses, but Z wins, then who gets the bye, or who is the wildcard?  We are going to simplify it for you and tell you the scenarios that are likely to happen and not give you this X must win, and then needs help from Y, Z, A, B, and 6 other teams junk.

 

A F C

5 teams have already qualified for the playoffs, well actually just 4, but we are going to eliminate the Indianapolis Colts from the discussion, because it is not going to happen–Indy is out of luck.  10 games have to go exactly right for the Colts to win, and a good amount would have to be upsets.  Houston has a 99.9% chance of being the AFC South Champion.  New England, Cincinnati, Denver, and Kansas City are also in the playoffs.

 

The one playoff spot left will go to the New York Jets if they win at Buffalo or the Pittsburgh Steelers lose at Cleveland.  Pittsburgh will be the last team in if they beat Cleveland, while the Bills also beat the Jets.

 

The Patriots will be the #1 seed with a win or Bronco loss.  A loss and Bronco win makes Denver #1.  Both teams have easily winnable games, with New England playing Miami and Denver playing San Diego.

 

The Cincinnati Bengals can clinch the #2 seed only if they beat Baltimore and Denver loses to San Diego, or if they lose to Baltimore, Denver loses to San Diego, and Kansas City beats Oakland.

 

Kansas City can still pass the Broncos if Denver loses to San Diego, while the Chiefs beat Oakland.   If Kansas City is the wildcard at 11-5, the Chiefs will be the #5 seed over an 11-5 Jets team, but if the Broncos become the wildcard at 11-5, an 11-5 Jets team would be the #5 seed.

 

N F C

The 6 playoff teams are set.  Carolina, Arizona, Green Bay, Washington, Minnesota, and Seattle are the playoff teams, but there are still some seedings to be determined.

 

At the top, if Carolina loses to Tampa Bay at home, and Arizona beats Seattle, the Cardinals jump ahead of the Panthers for the #1 seed.  It isn’t likely to happen, so figure Carolina at #1 and Arizona at #2.

 

Minnesota plays at Green Bay, and the winner will be the #3 seed, while the loser becomes the #5 seed.

 

Here is how we see the playoffs as of today:

NFL Playoff Projections
AFC SEED	TEAM
1	New England
2	Denver
3	Cincinnati
4	Houston
5	Kansas City
6	New York Jets
NFC SEED	TEAM
1	Carolina
2	Arizona
3	Green Bay
4	Washington
5	Minnesota
6	Seattle
Wildcard Playoff Round
New York Jets over Cincinnati
Kansas City over Houston
Seattle over Green Bay
Minnesota over Washington
Divisional Playoff Round
New York Jets over New England
Kansas City over Denver
Carolina over Seattle
Arizona over Minnesota
Conference Championship Round
Kansas City over New York Jets
Arizona over Carolina
Super Bowl 50
Arizona over Kansas City

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Washington	98.6	99.1	100.1	99.3	8-7-0	354	356
N.Y. Giants	99.0	98.7	98.6	98.8	6-9-0	390	407
Dallas	98.9	97.6	97.5	98.0	4-11-0	252	340
Philadelphia	97.4	96.9	97.1	97.1	6-9-0	342	400
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota	104.4	104.3	106.8	105.2	10-5-0	345	289
Green Bay	104.8	104.4	104.8	104.7	10-5-0	355	303
Detroit	99.9	99.0	99.5	99.5	6-9-0	334	380
Chicago	97.2	96.9	97.2	97.1	6-9-0	315	373
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Carolina	107.7	107.9	109.4	108.3	14-1-0	462	298
Atlanta	97.7	97.8	97.4	97.6	8-7-0	322	325
New Orleans	95.1	94.0	95.4	94.8	6-9-0	388	459
Tampa Bay	94.2	93.7	92.7	93.5	6-9-0	332	379
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona	112.2	112.3	113.9	112.8	13-2-0	483	277
Seattle	109.0	108.4	108.7	108.7	9-6-0	387	271
St. Louis	96.8	97.6	97.5	97.3	7-8-0	264	311
San Francisco	94.2	92.9	93.9	93.7	4-11-0	219	371
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England	108.8	108.5	107.9	108.4	12-3-0	455	295
N. Y. Jets	102.6	103.4	103.2	103.1	10-5-0	370	292
Buffalo	101.0	101.5	101.0	101.2	7-8-0	357	342
Miami	94.7	94.2	93.0	94.0	5-10-0	290	379
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Cincinnati	106.9	107.6	107.8	107.4	11-4-0	395	263
Pittsburgh	107.2	107.2	106.9	107.1	9-6-0	395	307
Baltimore	98.2	97.3	96.8	97.4	5-10-0	312	377
Cleveland	92.6	92.3	92.8	92.6	3-12-0	266	404
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Houston	100.0	101.4	101.0	100.8	8-7-0	309	307
Indianapolis	95.8	96.1	95.7	95.9	7-8-0	303	384
Jacksonville	93.1	94.3	92.1	93.2	5-10-0	370	418
Tennessee	89.1	89.1	88.2	88.8	3-12-0	275	393
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Kansas City	105.9	106.8	106.4	106.4	10-5-0	382	270
Denver	104.0	103.8	104.0	103.9	11-4-0	328	276
San Diego	96.8	97.3	97.0	97.0	4-11-0	300	371
Oakland	96.2	97.7	95.9	96.6	7-8-0	342	376

 

This Week’s Games
Week Number:	17
Date of Games:	January 3
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	NY Jets	0.9	0.6	0.3
Miami	New England	-11.1	-11.3	-11.9
Carolina	Tampa Bay	16.0	16.7	19.2
Atlanta	New Orleans	5.1	6.3	4.5
Cincinnati	Baltimore	10.7	12.3	13.0
Cleveland	Pittsburgh	-12.6	-12.9	-12.1
Houston	Jacksonville	9.9	10.1	11.9
Indianapolis	Tennessee	9.7	10.0	10.5
Kansas City	Oakland	12.7	12.1	13.5
Dallas	Washington	3.3	1.5	0.4
NY Giants	Philadelphia	3.6	3.8	3.5
Chicago	Detroit	-0.2	0.4	0.2
Green Bay	Minnesota	2.9	2.6	0.5
Denver	San Diego	10.2	9.5	10.0
Arizona	Seattle	6.2	6.9	8.2
San Francisco	St. Louis	0.4	-1.7	-0.6

PiRate Ratings College Football Playoffs and Bowl Projections

See the PiRate Ratings and Spreads for college and pro football at: http://www.piratings.webs.com
How many points is Alabama worth in home field advantage at Bryant-Denny Stadium? Would you say that five points is about right? If so, then The Crimson Tide and Mississippi State are dead even on a neutral field, correct?

The brains that vacuum large pots of money out of the books in Las Vegas, Reno, and offshore would tell you this is true, but the elite that select the teams for the playoffs may not see it that way. There is precedent for not seeing the forest for all the trees.

Let’s go back to 2006. Number one Ohio State, 11-0, hosted number two Michigan, also 11-0, at the giant horseshoe in Columbus. Ohio State’s home field advantage was worth at least four and as much as six points, and the Buckeyes had to hold on to edge the Wolverines by three points. In essence, on a neutral field, Michigan figured to be marginally better than Ohio State, and these two teams should have been slotted to face each other for the national championship a month and a half later. It would have been the greatest National Championship Game of the BCS era, but the BCS rankings dropped Michigan down and elevated Florida up into the number two slot.

Florida exploded to embarrass Ohio State in the title game, while a dejected Michigan team failed to show up in the Rose Bowl against a quality USC team. Had there been a playoff that year, these would have been the four teams, so in the end, Florida and USC would have advanced to the title game.

Back to 2014, what say the college football nation should Mississippi State and Alabama both win out? The Bulldogs are most likely going to edge out any 11-1 Big 12 team, as well as a possible 12-1 Ohio State team. In our opinion, any one-loss SEC West team must be in the playoffs, especially since Arkansas is now one win away from making all seven SEC West teams bowl eligible. There are no Iowa State’s, Kansas’s, or Texas Tech’s in the SEC West. There are no Purdue’s, Illinois’s, or Indiana’s in the SEC West. There are no Colorado’s or Washington State’s in the SEC West.

There are still a bevy of tricky games left that could shake up both the playoff race and the bowl projections.

In the ACC, Georgia Tech is one Duke loss away from facing Florida State in the ACC Championship Game. The Seminoles want no part of the spread option of the Yellow Jackets, as one or two breakdowns on defense could be the difference of 14 points. What if GT got an early lead? Can FSU come from behind against the best time-consuming offense there is?

In the Big Ten, Wisconsin might be strong enough to beat Ohio State in a possible conference championship game. The Badgers still have tough games left against Iowa and rival Minnesota.

In the Big 12, Baylor faces an Oklahoma State team this week that must win this game or upset Oklahoma to become bowl eligible. The Cowboys are probably looking at 5-7, but they may force the Bears to extend themselves. Baylor still has a date with Kansas State in December.

TCU has an even tougher assignment coming up on Thanksgiving. The Horned Frogs face a coming-on-strong Texas Longhorns team in Austin. We see that as a tossup as of today.

The Pac-12 could be interesting as well. The South Division is a mess with six of the seven teams still in contention for the division flag. UCLA controls its own destiny, and the Bruins will face Oregon in the conference championship game if they down USC and Stanford, both games to be played at the Rose Bowl. There is a chance for a five-team tie at 6-3, in which case Utah would emerge as the division champion.

In the race for the one Big Six Bowl invitation guaranteed to a Group of Five team, it is Marshall’s to lose. The Thundering Herd has a little bit of a tricky game this week at UAB, but we believe MU will come through. The likely opponent in the Conference USA Championship Game is Louisiana Tech, but Marshall looks like the class of this league, and coach Doc Holliday will be on the short list on many head coaching openings. Should Dana Holgersen get the offer at Florida or Michigan, or any other school that will get him out of West Virginia, then Holliday will be the next coach in Morgantown. If Marshall finishes 13-0, look for the Herd to play in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.

Should Marshall fall, Colorado State is the team in waiting, but only if the Rams can win at Air Force. At 11-1, the Rams would likely be in the Fiesta Bowl against a Baylor or TCU.

Here is a look at each conference and where we project the teams to go.

Records shown are our projections for where the teams will finish.

[ Team ] Indicates an at-large invitee

Group of 5 Conferences

American Athletic Conference
Coach Justin Fuente has greener pastures in his future after he has brought the Memphis Tigers back from the lowest of the lows to within two wins of a conference championship. The Tigers have home games against South Florida and Connecticut, and they figure to win both games by double digits. Unfortunately, at 9-3, Memphis has no real chance of falling into a Big Six bowl.

Temple appears to be in serious trouble in the bowl hunt. The 5-5 Owls must win out to have any chance to earn a spot, because at 6-6, their fan base is not strong enough to earn an at-large bid, as they cannot average 30,000 per game at Lincoln Financial Field.

1. Birmingham Bowl: Memphis (7-1/9-3) vs. Florida
2. St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida (6-2/8-4) vs. Miami (Fla.)
3. Miami Beach Bowl: Cincinnati (7-1/9-3) vs. B Y U
4. Military Bowl: East Carolina (6-2/9-3) vs. Virginia Tech
5. Armed Forces Bowl: Houston (5-3/7-5) vs. [ California ]

Also Bowl Eligible—Temple 4-4/6-6

Conference USA
As we mentioned above, Marshall has a clear path to a 13-0 finish, which will secure the automatic Group of Five bid to a Big Six Bowl. CUSA will get an extra bowl spot because of this, and the league will still have a surplus of bowl eligible teams. There is a secondary bowl tie-in, but we believe the bowl in question will choose to take a much more prestigious school from out West rather than a 6-6 CUSA team that averages less than 10,000 fans per home game in attendance.

In the West Division Louisiana Tech is not a lock for the top spot. The Bulldogs play at Old Dominion this week, and the Monarchs are in a must-win situation to become bowl eligible. If ODU wins, then LT must defeat Rice in two weeks to win the division title. If Rice beats UTEP this week, and ODU beats LT, then the November 29 game between the Owls and Bulldogs would decide the division title.

1. Big 6—Peach Bowl: Marshall (8-0/13-0) vs. Georgia
2. Hawaii Bowl: Louisiana Tech (8-0/9-4) vs. Air Force
3. Bahamas Bowl: Rice (5-3/7-5) vs. Bowling Green
4. Boca Raton Bowl: Middle Tennessee (5-3/6-6) vs. Northern Illinois
5. New Mexico Bowl: U T E P (5-3/7-5) vs. Utah St.
6. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Western Kentucky (3-5/6-6) vs. Maryland
Also Bowl Eligible: UAB 4-4/6-6

Mid-American Conference
Northern Illinois’s win over Toledo throws the West Division up for grabs with four teams still in the race. Western and Central Michigan join the other two in contention for the division crown. In the East, Bowling Green has already clinched the division title. The Falcons have a tough road game against an angry Toledo team Wednesday night. BGU’s lone conference loss came against Western Michigan, and the Broncos totally shut down the Falcons’ offense in the second half of that game.

The MAC figures to have two extra bowl eligible teams, both at 6-6, and neither will be lucky enough to earn an at-large invitation.

1. Bahamas Bowl: Bowling Green (6-2/9-4) vs. Rice
2. Boca Raton Bowl: Northern Illinois (6-2/9-3) vs. Middle Tennessee
3. Idaho Potato Bowl: Toledo (7-1/8-5) vs. San Diego St.
4. Camellia Bowl: Western Michigan (6-2/8-4) vs. South Alabama
5. GoDaddy Bowl: Central Michigan (6-2/8-4) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

Also Bowl Eligible: Ohio 4-4/6-6 & Akron 4-4/6-6

Mountain West Conference
For awhile Saturday night, it looked like the Mountain Division representative in the MWC Championship Game was about to be Colorado State, as San Diego State shot out to a nice lead over Boise State, before the Broncos charged back to win. The top four teams remain Mountain Division schools, as the West Division currently has a three-way tie at 3-3, with one of the co-leaders, Fresno State, mired at 4-6 overall.

The league has six bowl tie-ins and will produce six bowl eligible teams. Should Colorado State edge out Marshall for the Big Six bowl bid, it will force a the Idaho Potato Bowl to search for an at-large team, which most likely would come from the Pac-12.

1. Las Vegas Bowl: Boise St. (7-1/11-2) vs. Utah
2. Poinsettia Bowl: Colorado St. (7-1/11-1) vs. Navy
3. Hawaii Bowl: Air Force (5-3/9-3) vs. Louisiana Tech
4. New Mexico Bowl: Utah St. (6-2/9-4) vs. U T E P
5. New Orleans Bowl: Nevada (5-3/8-5) vs. Arkansas St.
6. Idaho Potato Bowl: San Diego St. (4-4/6-6) vs. Toledo

Sunbelt Conference

Louisiana-Lafayette clinched the top seed in the bowl order, but the Ragin’ Cajuns have not clinched the conference championship. Georgia Southern is also undefeated in conference play, but the Eagles are not bowl eligible this year unless there are not enough bowl eligible teams (which there will be by quite a few). ULL has been in a rut, playing in three consecutive New Orleans Bowl games. We think it is about time, they leave the state in December.

This will be an interesting bowl race among the rest of the field. Arkansas State and South Alabama are already bowl eligible, while Texas State and Appalachian State are one win away.

1. GoDaddy Bowl: Louisiana-Lafayette (8-0/9-3) vs. Central Michigan
2. New Orleans Bowl: Arkansas St. (5-3/7-5) vs. Nevada
3. Camellia Bowl: South Alabama (5-3/6-6) vs. Western Michigan

Also Bowl Eligible: Texas St. 5-3/7-5

Independents (Notre Dame included in ACC bowl tie-ins)
Army’s loss to Western Kentucky officially eliminates the Black Knights from their Armed Forces bowl tie-in. BYU clinched their Miami Beach Bowl berth with a win over UNLV, while Navy has two chances left to win one more game and earn their Poinsettia Bowl invitation.

1. Miami Beach Bowl: B Y U (7-5) vs. Cincinnati
2. Poinsettia Bowl: Navy (7-5) vs. Colorado St.

Power 5 Conferences

Atlantic Coast Conference
Whew! That’s what ACC Commissioner John Swofford must have mouthed late Saturday night when Florida State pulled out yet another dramatic finish to stay undefeated. The Seminoles will not make the playoffs if they lose any remaining game, and Swofford needs something positive for his conference with an academic fraud investigation hanging over his head at North Carolina (he was formerly the AD at UNC), as well as numerous rumors about the Florida State program.

Virginia Tech’s upset of Duke opens the door for Georgia Tech to win the Coastal Division title, and the Yellow Jackets will back into that game should North Carolina beat Duke this weekend. FSU will be rooting heavily for the Blue Devils to win that game.

1. PLAYOFFS—Rose Bowl: Florida St. (8-0/13-0) vs. Oregon
2. Big 6—Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech (6-2/9-4) vs. Wisconsin
3. Russell Athletic Bowl: Duke (5-3/9-3) vs. West Virginia
4. Gator Bowl: Clemson (6-2/8-4) vs. Ole Miss
5. Belk Bowl: Notre Dame (8-4) vs. L S U
6. Sun Bowl: Louisville (5-3/8-4) vs. Arizona St.
7. Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College (4-4/7-5) vs. Rutgers
8. Military Bowl: Virginia Tech (4-4/7-5) vs. East Carolina
9. Independence Bowl: North Carolina (5-3/7-5) vs. South Carolina
10. Quick Lane Bowl: North Carolina St. (2-6/6-6) vs. Northwestern
11. St. Petersburg Bowl: Miami (Fla.) (5-3/8-4) vs. Central Florida

Big Ten Conference

Ohio State is still squarely in the playoff race, but after this past Saturday’s games, we now seriously doubt that they can win the Big Ten Championship. After watching Wisconsin run through Nebraska, and remembering what happened the last time OSU and UW faced off, we believe the Badgers might be a little too strong for Ohio State’s run defense if these two face off for the title.

Wisconsin still must earn their spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, and that will be no easy task. The Badgers have a road game against Iowa and a home game for Paul Bunyan’s Axe against Minnesota. Weather could easily play a factor in both games, so it is not guarantee that UW will even make it to Indianapolis.

We have made one change in the bowl eligibility list this week. With Northwestern’s comeback win at Notre Dame, we now move the Wildcats over Illinois.

1. Big 6-Orange Bowl: Wisconsin (7-1/11-2) vs. Georgia Tech
2. Big 6-Cotton Bowl: Ohio St. (8-0/11-2) vs. T C U
3. Big 6-Fiesta Bowl: Michigan St. (7-1/10-2) vs. Baylor
4. Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Nebraska (5-3/9-3) vs. Missouri
5. Outback Bowl: Iowa (5-3/8-4) vs. Auburn
6. Holiday Bowl: Minnesota (4-4/7-5) vs. Arizona
7. Music City Bowl: Penn St. (2-6/6-6) vs. Tennessee
8. San Francisco Bowl: Michigan (4-4/6-6) vs. U S C
9. Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers (2-6/6-6) vs. Boston College
10. Quick Lane Bowl: Northwestern (4-4/6-6) vs. North Carolina St.
11. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Maryland (4-4/7-5) vs. Western Kentucky

Big 12 Conference

It has been quite apparent for some time that the Big 12 will not supply enough bowl eligible teams to meet all of its bowl obligations. This will be a certainty if both Baylor and TCU win out. Oklahoma State is now on the outside looking in, as the Cowboys are 5-5 with games remaining against Baylor and Oklahoma.

Texas is the key to this league’s bowl projections. The Longhorns have a legitimate chance to knock off TCU and throw a large monkey wrench into the works. For now, because it makes things much too difficult to rearrange, we are going to go with TCU and Baylor to win out.

1. Big 6-Cotton Bowl: T C U (8-1/11-1) vs. Ohio St.
2. Big 6-Fiesta Bowl: Baylor (8-1/11-1) vs. Michigan St.
3. Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma (6-3/9-3) vs. U C L A
4. Russell Athletic Bowl: West Virginia (6-3/8-4) vs. Duke
5. Liberty Bowl: Texas (5-4/6-6) vs. Arkansas
6. Cactus Bowl: Kansas St. (6-3/8-4) vs. Washington

Pac-12 Conference

Oregon has already clinched the North Division title, but the Ducks have two tough games that must be victories if they are going to make the playoffs. They end the regular season at rival Oregon State, and the Beavers will probably be 5-6 needing a win to earn a bowl bid. Of course, the Pac-12 Championship Game will be tough, and the Ducks will not know their opponent until late on November 29.

We have already written about the South Division title race. If UCLA wins out, the Bruins are in the title game. However, if UCLA loses to either USC or Stanford (or both), there are numerous tie-breaker possibilities that can give USC, Arizona, Arizona State, or Utah the flag.

There are seven teams already bowl eligible, and three teams need just one more win to get there. We believe two of the three will get that sixth win, meaning nine teams will be bowl eligible. We project two of the nine will have to sweat out at-large invitations, and being the top two available at-large candidates, they will secure the projected two at-large available spots.

1. PLAYOFFS-Rose Bowl: Oregon (8-1/12-1) vs. Florida St.
2. Alamo Bowl: U C L A (7-2/10-3) vs. Oklahoma
3. Holiday Bowl: Arizona (6-3/9-3) vs. Minnesota
4. San Francisco Bowl: U S C (6-3/8-4) vs. Michigan
5. Sun Bowl: Arizona St. (6-3/9-3) vs. Louisville
6. Las Vegas Bowl: Utah (6-3/9-3) vs. Boise St.
7. Cactus Bowl: Washington (4-5/8-5) vs. Kansas St.
8. Texas Bowl (at-large): [ Stanford ] (4-5/6-6) vs. Texas A&M
9. Armed Forces (at-large): [ California ] (3-6/6-6) vs. Houston

Southeastern Conference

If Kentucky can beat rival Louisville, and if Arkansas can beat either Ole Miss or Missouri, the SEC will end up with an amazing 13 bowl eligible teams. We are going with 12, and this will be just enough to satisfy all the bowl tie-ins for the king of college conferences.

Read above to reinforce why we believe the SEC will win out over the Big 12 and Big Ten in the one-loss race to the playoffs.

If, by chance, Ole Miss wins the Egg Bowl and Georgia knocks off Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, then it is going to be a very difficult choice for the Playoff Committee to take any SEC team if there are still four teams that have zero or one loss. Imagine if Georgia wins out to finish 11-2. How could the Bulldogs jump over TCU and Baylor, if both finish 11-1? Even a 12-1 Ohio State team would finish ahead of UGA.

Now, let’s say there are five two-loss SEC teams (Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Missouri), and then losses to TCU, Baylor, and Ohio State leave a dozen two loss teams in the mix. The real winner in this scenario would be Novartis, the owner of Maalox, because 12 influential elites would come down with the first case of mass heartburn.

For the sake of Condaleeza Rice’s stomach, let’s stick with the Tide and Bulldogs winning out.

Note—with the SEC’s decision to place conference teams where they can best capitalize on the bowl matchups, we have made some very interesting bowl games thanks to maneuvering like we expect the league will do.

1. PLAYOFFS-Sugar Bowl: Alabama (7-1/12-1) vs. Mississippi St.
2. PLAYOFFS-Sugar Bowl: Mississippi St. (7-1/11-1) vs. Alabama
3. Big 6-Peach Bowl: Georgia (6-2/10-3) vs. Marshall
4. Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Missouri (5-3/8-4) vs. Nebraska
5. Outback Bowl: Auburn (4-4/8-4) vs. Iowa
6. Gator Bowl: Ole Miss (4-4/8-4) vs. Clemson
7. Belk Bowl: L S U (4-4/8-4) vs. Notre Dame
8. Music City Bowl: Tennessee (4-4/7-5) vs. Penn St.
9. Texas Bowl: Texas A&M (3-5/7-5) vs. [ Stanford ]
10. Liberty Bowl: Arkansas (3-5/7-5) vs. Texas
11. Independence Bowl: South Carolina (3-5/7-5) vs. North Carolina
12. Birmingham Bowl: Florida (4-4/6-5) vs. Memphis

PiRate Ratings: NFL for Week 17–December 29, 2013

The Playoff Races In Full

A F C

 

Denver

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs with a win or tie vs. Oakland, or

A New England loss or tie against Buffalo

Falls to #2 Seed if they lose to Oakland and New England beats Buffalo

New England

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs with a win over Buffalo and a Denver loss to Oakland

Clinches #2 Seed with a win or tie vs. Buffalo, or a Cincinnati loss or tie to Baltimore and an Indianapolis loss or tie against Jacksonville

Cincinnati

Clinches #2 Seed with a win over Baltimore and a loss by New England to Buffalo

 

Wins Tiebreaker over Indianapolis for #3 Seed (Head-to-Head Win)

 

Indianapolis

Clinches #2 Seed with a win over Jacksonville and a New England loss to Buffalo and a Cincinnati loss or tie to Baltimore

 

Clinches #3 Seed with a win over Jacksonville and a Cincinnati loss or tie to Baltimore, or

 

A tie over Jacksonville and a Cincinnati loss to Baltimore

 

Kansas City

Has already clinched #5 Seed

Miami

Clinches #6 Seed with a win over the NY Jets and Baltimore loss or tie to Cincinnati, or

A win over NY Jets and a San Diego win over Kansas City, or

A tie with NY Jets, and a Baltimore loss to Cincinnati, and a San Diego loss or tie vs. Kansas City, or

A tie with NY Jets, and a Baltimore tie vs. Cincinnati, and a San Diego tie vs. Kansas City

Baltimore

Clinches #6 Seed with a win over Cincinnati and a San Diego loss or tie vs. Kansas City, or

A win over Cincinnati, and a Miami loss or tie vs. NY Jets, or

A tie vs. Cincinnati, and a Miami loss to NY Jets, and a San Diego loss or tie with Kansas City, or

A tie vs. Cincinnati, and a Miami tie with NY Jets, and a San Diego loss to Kansas City, or

A Miami loss to NY Jets, and a San Diego loss to Kansas City, and a Pittsburgh loss or tie with Cleveland

San Diego

Clinches #6 Seed with win over Kansas City, and Miami loss or tie with NY Jets, and Baltimore loss or tie with Cincinnati, or

 

A tie with Kansas City, and a Miami loss to NY Jets, and Baltimore loss to Cincinnati

Pittsburgh

Clinches #6 Seed with win over Cleveland, and Miami loss to NY Jets, and Baltimore loss to Cincinnati, and San Diego loss to Kansas City

N F C

 

Seattle

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs with a win or tie against St. Louis, or

A San Francisco loss or tie against Arizona

Carolina

Clinches #1 Seed with a win over Atlanta and a Seattle loss to St. Louis, and a San Francisco win over Arizona

Clinches #2 Seed with a win or tie with Atlanta, or

A New Orleans loss or tie with Tampa Bay

Philadelphia

Clinches #3 Seed with win or tie with Dallas

Chicago

Clinches the NFC North Division with a win or tie with Green Bay

Clinches #3 Seed with a win over Green Bay and Dallas winning the NFC East (wins tiebreaker based on head-to-head win)

Clinches #4 Seed if Philadelphia wins the NFC East, (or if Bears tie and Dallas wins)

San Francisco

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs with a win over Arizona, and a Seattle loss to St. Louis, and a Carolina loss or tie with Atlanta

Clinches #2 Seed with a win over Arizona and a Seattle loss to St. Louis

Clinches #5 Seed with win over Arizona, or

A New Orleans loss to Tampa Bay (New Orleans and Carolina both hold tiebreaker based on head-to-head win)

Clinches #6 Seed if tied with either New Orleans or Carolina or both

New Orleans

Clinches #2 Seed with win over Tampa Bay and Carolina Loss to Atlanta

 

Clinches #5 Seed with win over Tampa Bay, or

A tie with Tampa Bay and an Arizona loss or tie with San Francisco, or

An Arizona loss to San Francisco

 

Clinches #6 Seed with a loss to Tampa Bay and a San Francisco win or tie over Arizona, or

A Tie with Tampa Bay and a San Francisco tie with Arizona (holds tiebreaker over Arizona based on head-to-head win)

Arizona

Clinches #6 Seed with a win over San Francisco and a New Orleans loss or tie with Tampa Bay, or

A Tie with San Francisco, and a New Orleans loss to Tampa Bay

Dallas

Clinches #3 Seed with a win over Philadelphia and a Chicago loss or tie with Green Bay

Clinches #4 Seed with a win over Philadelphia and a Chicago win over Green Bay (loses tiebreaker to Chicago based on head-to-head loss)

Green Bay

Clinches #4 Seed with a win over Chicago

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Philadelphia Eagles	101.8	103.0	102.1
Dallas Cowboys	97.7	97.8	96.9
New York Giants	95.6	95.7	95.3
Washington Redskins	92.2	92.2	91.6
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Detroit Lions	100.3	100.3	99.9
Chicago Bears	98.8	98.4	98.3
Green Bay Packers	98.1	97.3	97.4
Minnesota Vikings	95.5	95.2	95.1
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans Saints	105.5	106.1	106.2
Carolina Panthers	105.5	105.8	105.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	96.9	96.6	96.9
Atlanta Falcons	95.2	94.6	94.4
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco 49ers	110.0	110.6	110.4
Seattle Seahawks	109.5	109.9	109.8
Arizona Cardinals	103.9	104.9	104.3
St. Louis Rams	100.7	101.7	101.4
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England Patriots	107.1	105.5	106.9
Miami Dolphins	100.0	99.2	99.9
Buffalo Bills	97.9	97.6	98.3
New York Jets	92.8	92.0	93.0
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Cincinnati Bengals	108.1	108.5	108.4
Baltimore Ravens	100.3	100.0	100.3
Pittsburgh Steelers	99.9	99.9	100.2
Cleveland Browns	94.3	93.7	93.8
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis Colts	102.9	103.3	103.2
Tennessee Titans	97.4	97.5	97.4
Houston Texans	92.6	91.7	92.4
Jacksonville Jaguars	90.8	90.6	90.8
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Denver Broncos	110.0	110.5	110.4
San Diego Chargers	103.6	104.0	103.6
Kansas City Chiefs	103.4	104.1	103.7
Oakland Raiders	91.7	91.8	91.9

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Atlanta	Carolina	-8.3	-9.2	-9.4
Chicago	Green Bay	3.7	4.1	3.9
Cincinnati	Baltimore	10.8	11.5	11.1
Dallas	Philadelphia	-1.1	-2.2	-2.2
Tennessee	Houston	6.8	7.8	7.0
Indianapolis	Jacksonville	14.1	14.7	14.4
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	7.6	8.2	8.4
Miami	N Y Jets	10.2	10.2	9.9
Minnesota	Detroit	-2.3	-2.6	-2.3
New England	Buffalo	12.2	10.9	11.6
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	11.6	12.5	12.3
N Y Giants	Washington	5.9	6.0	6.2
Arizona	San Francisco	-3.1	-2.7	-3.1
San Diego	Kansas City	3.2	2.9	2.9
Seattle	St. Louis	11.3	10.7	10.9
Oakland	Denver	-15.3	-15.7	-15.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Playoff Projections

A F C

1. Denver

2. New England

3. Cincinnati

4. Indianapolis

5. Kansas City

6. Miami

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. Carolina

3. Philadelphia

4. Chicago

5. San Francisco

6. New Orleans

 

Wildcard Round

Cincinnati over Miami

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Philadelphia over New Orleans

San Francisco over Chicago

 

Divisional Round

Denver over Kansas City

New England over Cincinnati

Seattle over San Francisco

Philadelphia over Carolina

 

Conference Championships

New England over Denver

Philadelphia over Seattle

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

PiRate Ratings: NFL for week 16–December 19-23, 2013

The Contenders

With two weeks to go in the regular season, there are still too many scenarios possible to list them all here.  We will do that next week.  For now, we will list the tiebreaking procedures and then show the standings by those procedures for the teams still in contention for playoff spots.

 

There are several tiebreaker levels, but realistically, none will go past a certain number and get into ridiculous point spread margins.

 

Here are the essential procedures for ties within a division, in order taken:

1. Head to Head—If one team swept the other, it is decided here

2. W-L-T in the division

3. W-L-T in common games

4. W-L-T in the conference

5. Strength of Victory (the combined W-L pct. of all teams defeated)

6. Strength of Schedule (the combined W-L pct. of all teams played)

 

Here are the essential procedures for ties outside of the division (for home field and wildcard use)

1. Head-to-Head

2. W-L-T in the conference

3. W-L-T in common games (but only if there are at least four such common games)

4. Strength of Victory

5. Strength of Schedule

 

Here is a look at the standings for all teams still in serious contention for the playoffs; we do not show Pittsburgh or the New York Jets, because so many things must happen for either to qualify, it is beyond normal possibility.  If they are still in contention next week, we will include them in this discussion.

 

A  F  C
Team	W-L-T	Division	Conf.	SOV	SOS
New England	10-4-0	3-2-0	7-3-0	.429	.474
Miami	8-6-0	2-2-0	7-3-0	.491	.520
Cincinnati	9-5-0	2-3-0	7-4-0	.488	.487
Baltimore	8-6-0	3-2-0	6-4-0	.415	.449
Indianapolis	9-5-0	5-0-0	7-3-0	.437	.480
Denver	11-3-0	4-1-0	7-3-0	.474	.505
Kansas City	11-3-0	2-3-0	7-3-0	.331	.408
San Diego	7-7-0	2-2-0	4-6-0	.524	.473
Head-to-Head Superiority
Baltimore over Miami
Cincinnati over Indianapolis
Cincinnati over New England
Denver over Kansas City
Indianapolis over Denver
Miami over Cincinnati
Miami over Indianapolis
Miami over San Diego
New England over Denver
N  F  C
Team	W-L-T	Division	Conf.	SOV	SOS
Philadelphia	8-6-0	3-2-0	7-3-0	.379	.449
Dallas	7-7-0	4-0-0	6-4-0	.362	.495
Chicago	8-6-0	2-3-0	4-6-0	.455	.452
Green Bay	7-6-1	2-2-1	5-5-1	.383	.454
Detroit	7-7-0	4-1-0	6-4-0	.429	.477
New Orleans	10-4-0	4-0-0	8-2-0	.493	.526
Carolina	10-4-0	3-1-0	7-3-0	.439	.497
Seattle	12-2-0	3-1-0	9-1-0	.438	.472
San Francisco	10-4-0	4-1-0	7-3-0	.418	.508
Arizona	9-5-0	1-3-0	5-5-0	.405	.495
Head-to-Head Superiority
Arizona over Carolina
Carolina over San Francisco
Detroit over Chicago
New Orleans over Arizona
New Orleans over Chicago
New Orleans over San Francisco
Philadelphia over Detroit
Seattle over Carolina
Seattle over New Orleans

 

 

Here are the remaining schedules for the contenders:

 

A  F  C
Team	Wk 16	Wk 17
New England	at Baltimore	Buffalo
Miami	At Buffalo	New York Jets
Cincinnati	Minnesota	Baltimore
Baltimore	New England	at Cincinnati
Indianapolis	at Kansas City	Jacksonville
Denver	at Houston	at Oakland
Kansas City	Indianapolis	at San Diego
San Diego	Oakland	Kansas City
N  F  C
Team	Wk 16	Wk 17
Philadelphia	Chicago	at Dallas
Dallas	at Washington	Philadelphia
Chicago	at Philadelphia	Green Bay
Green Bay	Pittsburgh	at Chicago
Detroit	New York Giants	at Minnesota
New Orleans	at Carolina	Tampa Bay
Carolina	New Orleans	at Atlanta
Seattle	Arizona	St. Louis
San Francisco	Atlanta	at Arizona
Arizona	At Seattle	San Francisco

 

This is how we see the races ending as of this week:

A F C

1. Denver

2. Cincinnati

3. New England

4. Indianapolis

5. Kansas City

6. Miami

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. Carolina

3. Philadelphia

4. Detroit

5. San Francisco

6. New Orleans

 

Wildcard Round

New England over Miami

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Philadelphia over New Orleans

San Francisco over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

Kansas City over Denver *

Cincinnati over New England

Seattle over San Francisco

Philadelphia over Carolina

 

Conference Championships

Kansas City over Cincinnati *

Seattle over Philadelphia

 

Super Bowl

Kansas City over Seattle *

 

* How could we have the Chiefs beating Denver on the road for the AFC Conference Championship and then Seattle in the Super Bowl?  It would not be the first time that Kansas City finished in second place in the West, lost twice to the first place team, and then defeated that first place team to advance to and win the Super Bowl.

 

The 11-3 Chiefs did this in 1969.  The Oakland Raiders were the class of the AFL in 1969 with a 12-1-1 record, losing only to a Cincinnati Bengal team that had perhaps the greatest quarterback ever to play less than one full season (check out our story on Greg Cook from earlier in the year).

 

The 1969 Chiefs also lost to Cook and the Bengals, but they dropped both games to Oakland.  At 11-3, KC had to face the defending Super Bowl champion Jets in New York, and the Chiefs knocked them out by completely stopping Joe Namath from throwing deep.

 

Oakland easily destroyed Houston in the other first round game.  It was 28-0 after one quarter, and “The Mad Bomber,” the great Daryle Lamonica threw six touchdown passes that day.

 

Oakland hosted Kansas City in the final AFL game.  The Raiders were favored, but the Chiefs were not to be denied.  The KC defense did the same thing to Lamonica as they had done to Namath a week earlier, and the Chiefs won 17-7.

 

Kansas City was not done.  Prohibitive underdogs to Minnesota, Kansas City held the Vikings’ offense in check to win Super Bowl IV, 23-7.  All told in three playoff games, the Chiefs gave up 20 total points to the top two offenses in the AFL and top offense in the NFL.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Philadelphia Eagles	99.0	100.0	99.2
Dallas Cowboys	97.8	98.1	97.1
New York Giants	94.5	94.4	94.1
Washington Redskins	92.1	91.9	91.4
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Chicago Bears	101.6	101.4	101.2
Detroit Lions	101.4	101.6	101.1
Green Bay Packers	98.6	97.8	97.8
Minnesota Vikings	97.3	97.3	97.1
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans Saints	105.8	106.6	106.6
Carolina Panthers	105.2	105.3	105.4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	97.2	96.9	97.3
Atlanta Falcons	94.6	93.9	93.7
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Seattle Seahawks	111.3	111.7	111.5
San Francisco 49ers	110.6	111.3	111.1
Arizona Cardinals	102.1	103.1	102.6
St. Louis Rams	100.4	101.4	101.0
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England Patriots	104.6	103.0	104.4
Miami Dolphins	101.6	101.1	101.9
Buffalo Bills	96.3	95.7	96.3
New York Jets	91.8	90.8	91.9
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Cincinnati Bengals	106.3	106.4	106.4
Baltimore Ravens	102.8	102.5	102.8
Pittsburgh Steelers	99.4	99.4	99.8
Cleveland Browns	95.3	94.9	94.9
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis Colts	101.0	101.0	101.1
Tennessee Titans	97.3	97.6	97.5
Houston Texans	93.0	92.3	92.9
Jacksonville Jaguars	90.9	90.5	90.7
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Denver Broncos	109.6	109.9	109.9
Kansas City Chiefs	105.3	106.4	105.8
San Diego Chargers	103.7	104.3	103.8
Oakland Raiders	91.6	91.5	91.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Miami	-2.8	-2.9	-3.1
Cincinnati	Minnesota	12.0	12.1	12.3
Kansas City	Indianapolis	7.3	8.4	7.7
St. Louis	Tampa Bay	6.2	7.5	6.7
N Y Jets	Cleveland	-1.0	-1.6	-0.5
Philadelphia	Chicago	0.4	1.6	1.0
Washington	Dallas	-2.7	-3.2	-2.7
Carolina	New Orleans	2.4	1.7	1.8
Jacksonville	Tennessee	-3.9	-4.6	-4.3
Houston	Denver	-14.1	-14.1	-14.5
Seattle	Arizona	12.2	11.6	11.9
Detroit	N Y Giants	9.9	10.2	10.0
Green Bay	Pittsburgh	2.0	1.2	0.8
San Diego	Oakland	15.1	15.8	15.1
Baltimore	New England	1.2	2.5	1.4
San Francisco	Atlanta	19.0	20.4	20.4

 

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–Regular Season Final

NCAA 2009 College Football Playoff Simulation

The Playoffs You Wished For 

Welcome to season number three of the NCAA College Football Playoff Simulation.  For those reading this blog for the first time, the PiRate College Football Playoffs take the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC as automatic qualifiers.  Any of the remaining conference champions (including the top independent) that finish in the top 16 in the final regular season BCS Standings also qualify automatically.  At-large teams are then selected in the order of BCS finish until 12 total teams have been selected.  The 12 teams are then seeded by BCS ranking with no maximum number of teams per conference.

 

Here is how the 12 teams were selected for the 2009 playoffs.

 

Top Six Conference Champions

ACC–Georgia Tech 11-2           #9 Seed

Big East–Cincinnati 12-0                   #3 Seed

Big Ten–Ohio State 10-2         #8 Seed

Big 12—Texas 13-0                    #2 Seed

Pac-10—Oregon 10-2                #7 Seed

SEC—Alabama 13-0                             #1 Seed

 

Automatic Qualifiers By Virtue Of Top 16 In BCS

MWC—T C U 12-0                       #4 Seed

WAC—Boise State 13-0             #6 Seed

 

Top Four At-Large To Fill Out 12-Team Field

Florida 12-1                                 #5 Seed

Iowa 10-2                                    #10 Seed

Virginia Tech 10-2                     #11 Seed

L S U 9-3                                      #12 Seed

 

The PiRate Playoff System uses the top 11 bowl games to play the four rounds.  The 5^th through 12^th seeds must play in the first round, while the top four seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals.

Opening Round

 

Outback Bowl    #5 Florida vs. #12 L S U  Dec 17

Alamo Bowl       #6 Boise State vs. #11 Virginia Tech  Dec 18

Holiday Bowl     #7 Oregon vs. #10 Iowa  Dec 19

Gator Bowl         #8 Ohio State vs. #9 Georgia Tech  Dec 19

 

Quarterfinal Round

 

Cotton Bowl                #4 T C U vs. Outback Bowl Winner  Jan 1

Capital One Bowl       #3 Cincinnati vs. Alamo Bowl Winner  Jan 1

Rose Bowl                             #2 Texas vs. Holiday Bowl Winner  Jan 1

Sugar Bowl                  #1 Alabama vs. Gator Bowl Winner  Jan 1

 

Semifinal Round

 

Fiesta Bowl        Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Fiesta Bowl Winner Jan 9

Orange Bowl     Rose Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner Jan 9

 

National Championship Game

 

Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Orange Bowl Winner  Jan 23

 

1. This system awards the four best teams with byes.

2. This system not only keeps the bowls alive, but it gives them more importance and prestige, as 11 bowls decide the title.

3. Instead of undefeated Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State getting left out of the national championship picture, number 13 Penn State is the first team left out.  This is much more fair, as this system will always allow a 12-0 team to have a chance regardless of whether it is Alabama or Boise State.

4. The remaining bowls would not have to settle for 6-6 teams.  The rules could demand at least 7 wins as a minimum.

5. Three of the four rounds would occur during winter break for the schools, thus quashing the myth that players would miss too much time.

 

Check back on December 20 for simulated results of the first round games.

 

Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

 

The Army-Navy game must still be played, but that game doesn’t warrant an extra week’s worth of ratings.  Neither team can break the top 25 even if they win 222-0.  The game still has bowl implications.  If Army wins, the Cadets will advance to the Eagle Bank Bowl to face Temple.  If Navy wins, then UCLA takes Army’s place in Washington, DC.

NCAA Top 25 For December 7, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Alabama	133.0	13	0
2	Texas	131.4	12	0
3	Florida	128.2	12	1
4	T C U	125.4	12	0
5	Oklahoma	124.0	7	5
6	Boise State	120.9	12	0
7	Virginia Tech	120.5	9	3
8	Oregon	119.8	10	2
9	Georgia Tech	119.4	11	2
10	Nebraska	118.8	9	4
11	Texas Tech	117.9	8	4
12	Penn State	117.7	10	2
13	Ohio State	117.6	10	2
14	Miami (Fla)	117.4	9	3
15	Stanford	116.9	8	4
16	Arkansas	115.5	7	5
17	Southern Cal	115.1	8	4
18	Cincinnati	114.9	12	0
19	Iowa	114.8	10	2
20	Arizona	114.0	8	4
21	Oklahoma State	113.9	9	3
22	Pittsburgh	113.7	9	3
23	Ole Miss	113.2	8	4
24	L  S  U	112.5	9	3
25	Oregon State	112.0	8	4
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	6-2	8-5	111.7
Florida State	4-4	6-6	107.6
Boston College	5-3	8-4	107.1
Wake Forest	3-5	5-7	104.8
North Carolina State	2-6	5-7	102.7
Maryland	1-7	2-10	93.0
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	6-2	9-3	120.5
Georgia Tech	7-1	11-2	119.4
Miami-FL	5-3	9-3	117.4
North Carolina	4-4	8-4	110.9
Duke	3-5	5-7	98.4
Virginia	2-6	3-9	94.8

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	8-0	12-0	114.9
Pittsburgh	5-2	9-3	113.7
West Virginia	5-2	9-3	106.0
Connecticut	3-4	7-5	105.8
Rutgers	3-4	8-4	102.1
South Florida	3-4	7-5	101.8
Syracuse	1-6	4-8	93.9
Louisville	1-6	4-8	90.5

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Penn State	6-2	10-2	117.7
Ohio State	7-1	10-2	117.6
Iowa	6-2	10-2	114.8
Wisconsin	5-3	9-3	108.5
Michigan State	4-4	6-6	101.5
Northwestern	5-3	8-4	99.3
Purdue	4-4	5-7	99.0
Minnesota	3-5	6-6	97.9
Michigan	1-7	5-7	96.6
Illinois	2-6	3-9	96.0
Indiana	1-7	4-8	90.9

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	6-2	9-4	118.9
Missouri	4-4	8-4	104.8
Kansas	1-7	5-7	103.9
Kansas State	4-4	6-6	99.4
Colorado	2-6	3-9	97.4
Iowa State	3-5	6-6	94.9
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	8-0	13-0	131.4
Oklahoma	5-3	7-5	124.0
Texas Tech	5-3	8-4	117.9
Oklahoma State	6-2	9-3	113.9
Texas A&M	3-5	6-6	103.4
Baylor	1-7	4-8	96.6

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
East Carolina	7-1	9-4	105.2
Central Florida	6-2	8-4	104.1
Southern Mississippi	5-3	7-5	100.9
Marshall	4-4	6-6	92.4
U A B	4-4	5-7	91.0
Memphis	1-7	2-10	83.4
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	6-2	10-3	107.4
Tulsa	3-5	5-7	91.6
U T E P	3-5	4-8	90.8
S M U	6-2	7-5	88.4
Rice	2-6	2-10	76.4
Tulane	1-7	3-9	71.1

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-6	105.9
Navy		8-4	100.6
Army		5-6	82.0

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	7-1	9-3	100.7
Ohio U	7-1	9-4	94.9
Buffalo	3-5	5-7	92.4
Bowling Green	6-2	7-5	91.4
Kent St.	4-4	6-6	84.7
Akron	2-6	3-9	81.5
Miami (O)	1-7	1-11	76.3
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	8-0	11-2	109.0
Northern Illinois	5-3	7-5	95.1
Toledo	3-5	5-7	87.1
Western Michigan	4-4	5-7	86.2
Ball State	2-6	2-10	83.0
Eastern Michigan	0-8	0-12	74.2

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	8-0	12-0	125.4
B Y U	7-1	10-2	111.1
Utah	6-2	9-3	107.7
Air Force	5-3	7-5	100.7
Wyoming	4-4	6-6	87.9
UNLV	3-5	5-7	86.8
Colo. State	0-8	3-9	86.1
S. D. State	3-5	5-7	85.2
New Mexico	1-7	1-11	77.8

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	8-1	10-2	119.8
Stanford	6-3	8-4	116.9
Southern Cal	5-4	8-4	115.1
Arizona	6-3	8-4	114.0
Oregon St.	6-3	8-4	112.0
California	5-4	8-4	108.6
U C L A	3-6	6-6	105.3
Arizona St.	2-7	4-8	102.1
Washington	4-5	5-7	103.6
Wash. St.	0-9	1-11	70.8

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	8-0	12-1	128.2
Tennessee	4-4	7-5	110.9
South Carolina	3-5	7-5	110.9
Georgia	4-4	7-5	110.4
Kentucky	3-5	7-5	104.4
Vanderbilt	0-8	2-10	93.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	8-0	13-0	133.0
Arkansas	3-5	7-5	115.5
Ole Miss	4-4	8-4	113.2
L S U	5-3	9-3	112.5
Auburn	3-5	7-5	107.7
Mississippi State	3-5	5-7	104.2

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	8-0	9-3	99.0
Middle Tennessee	7-1	9-3	96.2
Louisiana-Monroe	5-3	6-6	86.8
Arkansas State	3-5	4-8	85.8
Florida Atlantic	5-3	5-7	84.6
U. of Louisiana	4-4	6-6	83.7
Florida International	3-5	3-9	80.3
North Texas	1-7	2-10	76.4
Western Kentucky	0-8	0-12	73.7

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	8-0	13-0	120.9
Nevada	7-1	8-4	108.6
Louisiana Tech	3-5	4-8	99.8
Fresno State	6-2	7-4	99.0
Utah State	3-5	4-8	91.9
Idaho	4-4	7-5	89.6
Hawaii	3-5	6-6	87.7
San Jose State	1-7	2-10	78.5
New Mexico State	1-7	3-10	71.0

 

Bowl Lineups

Day	Date	Time EST	Bowl	Team		Team
Sat	19-Dec	4:30 PM	New Mexico	Wyoming	vs.	Fresno State
Sat	19-Dec	8:00 PM	St. Petersburg	Rutgers	vs.	Central Florida
Sun	20-Dec	8:15 PM	New Orleans	Middle Tenn	vs.	Southern Miss
Tue	22-Dec	8:00 PM	Las Vegas	B  Y  U	vs.	Oregon State
Wed	23-Dec	8:00 PM	Poinsettia	Utah	vs.	California
Thu	24-Dec	8:00 PM	Hawaii	Nevada	vs.	S  M  U
Sat	26-Dec	1:00 PM	Little Caesar’s Pizza	Marshall	vs.	Ohio U
Sat	26-Dec	4:30 PM	Meineke Car Care	North Carolina	vs.	Pittsburgh
Sat	26-Dec	8:00 PM	Emerald	Southern Cal	vs.	Boston College
Sun	27-Dec	8:15 PM	Music City	Kentucky	vs.	Clemson
Mon	28-Dec	5:00 PM	Independence	Georgia	vs.	Texas A&M
Tue	29-Dec	4:30 PM	Eagle Bank	Temple	vs.	Army/UCLA
Tue	29-Dec	8:00 PM	Champs Sports	Miami-Fl	vs.	Wisconsin
Wed	30-Dec	4:30 PM	Humanitarian	Idaho	vs.	Bowling Green
Wed	30-Dec	8:00 PM	Holiday	Nebraska	vs.	Arizona
Thu	31-Dec	11:00 AM	Armed Forces	Houston	vs.	Air Force
Thu	31-Dec	2:00 PM	Sun	Stanford	vs.	Oklahoma
Thu	31-Dec	3:30 PM	Texas	Missouri	vs.	Navy
Thu	31-Dec	6:00 PM	Insight.com	Iowa State	vs.	Minnesota
Thu	31-Dec	7:30 PM	Chick-fil-A	Tennessee	vs.	Va. Tech
Fri	1-Jan	11:00 AM	Outback	Auburn	vs.	Northwestern
Fri	1-Jan	1:00 PM	Capital One	Penn State	vs.	L  S  U
Fri	1-Jan	1:00 PM	Gator	West Va.	vs.	Florida State
Fri	1-Jan	5:10 PM	Rose	Oregon	vs.	Ohio State
Fri	1-Jan	8:00 PM	Sugar	Florida	vs.	Cincinnati
Sat	2-Jan	12:00 PM	International	South Florida	vs.	Northern Illinois
Sat	2-Jan	2:00 PM	Cotton	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Ole Miss
Sat	2-Jan	2:00 PM	Papajohns.com	Connecticut	vs.	South Carolina
Sat	2-Jan	5:30 PM	Liberty	Arkansas	vs.	East Carolina
Sat	2-Jan	9:00 PM	Alamo	Texas Tech	vs.	Michigan St.
Mon	4-Jan	8:00 PM	Fiesta	Boise State	vs.	T C U
Tue	5-Jan	8:00 PM	Orange	Georgia Tech	vs.	Iowa
Wed	6-Jan	8:00 PM	G M A C	Troy	vs.	Central Mich.
Thu	7-Jan	8:00 PM	Nat’l Championship	Alabama	vs.	Texas

Coming This Week–What you can do to help bring about a college football playoff

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 30-December 12

It’s The Week We’ve All Been Waiting For

 

It seems like just last week the college football season kicked off, and here it is the end of the regular season.  A handful of games can potentially scramble the bowl bids that will go out Sunday.  With the holidays bringing the five PiRates together under the same roof in northwest Wisconsin for too much turkey and other booty, we stayed up late gathering information for this special bowl edition.  We think through hard work and phone calls to contacts in multiple locations, we have one of the best views of the bowl games.

This edition will not be a speculative one.  We are actually trying to use information we have gathered to report where we believe the bowls are looking with six days to go.

The BCS Bowls

National Championship Game:  Obviously the winner of this week’s Alabama-Florida game in the SEC Championship will finish number one.  If Texas wins, then everything is rather easy.  The Longhorns will finish number two.  Here’s where things get dicey.  If Texas loses, there will be controversy no matter which team makes it to Pasadena.  TCU would be the logical choice, but Cincinnati could edge ahead of the Horned Frogs with a convincing win over Pittsburgh.  And, if Alabama were to edge Florida by a point or win in overtime, there is still a possibility that Alabama and Florida could meet in a rematch.  Remember something; part of the BCS equation is human voting.  The fourth estate has never been confused for being honest and just.  All it takes is for a few voters to move TCU down one spot, and the fix would be in.

We believe Nebraska’s lack of offense will make this all superfluous.  Texas will win by double digits this week and face the SEC winner for the national championship.  We’ve taken a vote here in the Northwoods; one of us believes Florida will win this week.  One of us believes Alabama will win, and the other three consider it a tossup.  It should be the next “greatest game,” in the mold of Ohio State and Michigan in 2006, Florida State and Florida in 1996, Notre Dame and USC in 1988, and the two greatest late season matchups of #1 vs. #2—Oklahoma and Nebraska in 1971 and Notre Dame and Michigan State in 1966. 

Orange Bowl: The winner of this week’s Clemson-Georgia Tech game for the ACC Championship will automatically go to Miami.  We believe Clemson has a better than 50% chance of pulling off the upset.  In their regular season game, Clemson’s comedy of errors led to the Yellow Jackets getting a big lead.  The Tigers made a great comeback and almost pulled it off.  We thing CU gets revenge this week and heads to Miami with a weak 8-4 record.  The Orange Bowl will get the third selection in the at-large draft if Texas wins.  The Sugar and Fiesta Bowls will have already picked because they will have lost teams to the National Championship Game.  With Alabama or Florida and Iowa already taken off the board, this pick will come down to either the Big East champion, Boise State, or TCU.  If Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh, we don’t see the Bearcats being chosen even though they would be 12-0.  Cincinnati played in Miami last year.  It would come down to TCU and Boise State.  Believe it or not, Boise’s fans travel better, so we will go with Boise State here.

If Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati, the Panthers will probably wind up here, and Boise State would head to the Fiesta Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl: Assuming Texas wins, the Fiesta Bowl will get the second and fourth picks in the at-large draft.  The SEC loser will be off the table, and we believe the best choice for this bowl will be Iowa.  After the Orange Bowl picks Boise State, TCU becomes the logical choice.  If Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati, then Boise State would land here.

Sugar Bowl: Without a doubt, the loser of the SEC Championship will play here if both SEC teams don’t play again in Pasadena.  The Sugar Bowl gets the first pick to replace the number one team being lost to the National Championship Game.  The Sugar Bowl also gets the last pick in the at-large draft.  Since this cannot be a Hobson’s Choice, Cincinnati would land here as the only option if the Bearcats beat Pittsburgh.  If Pittsburgh wins this week, then TCU would land here.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State is already assured of playing here.  The winner of Thursday night’s Oregon-Oregon State game will be the opponent.  There can be no other options this year.

The Top-Tier Non-BCS Bowls

 

Capital One Bowl: LSU seems to be a shoo-in for this bowl after Ole Miss fell to Mississippi State.  Penn State will land here if Iowa is chosen over the Lions for a BCS Bowl.  We see no reason for Penn State fans to believe they can beat out Iowa, especially if the bowl in question is the Fiesta Bowl.

Outback Bowl: The top remaining SEC East team is supposed to play here, while the top remaining SEC West team is supposed to play in the Cotton Bowl. Ole Miss played in Dallas last year, and there was talk that there could be a trade-off with Ole Miss heading to Tampa.  However, late news seems to support the Rebels playing in the Cotton Bowl again, so Tennessee looks like the choice here.  The Big Ten representative will be Wisconsin unless the Badgers lose in Hawaii this weekend.  If that happens, it changes a lot of other bowls. 

Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma State should receive this invitation, since the Cowboys have the second best record, but Nebraska or over Oklahoma could leapfrog them.  For now, we will stick with the most politically correct pick and go with Oklahoma State.  According to late-breaking news, the SEC representative will be Ole Miss. 

Gator Bowl: Notre Dame’s fold means the Big East gets this spot.  The loser of the Pittsburgh-Cincinnati game will end up in Jacksonville.  We believe Georgia Tech will lose to Clemson this week, so the Yellow Jackets will play here.  Our pick then is Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh.  If the Yellow Jackets win the ACC, then it appears that Miami would be the ACC representative.

Holiday Bowl: Southern Cal will get this bid if Oregon beats Oregon State.  If the Beavers beat the Ducks, then Oregon will drop to this bowl.  Nebraska is the logical Big 12 choice for this game.

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Georgia’s win over Georgia Tech will put the Bulldogs at the top of the list for this game, but a second year in a row of fewer hotel rooms needing to be booked (Georgia Tech played here last year) probably sends the Bulldogs somewhere else.  The likely ACC opponent will be Virginia Tech, and the SEC will try to find the best opponent.  Auburn would be the best choice, providing a match-up of offense against defense, but most of their fans can drive to this game.  We’re going with Auburn because officials from this bowl repeatedly attended their games.  Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

The Mid-Level Bowls

 

Las Vegas Bowl: Even though they have been to this bowl four years in a row, it looks like Brigham Young is headed here again.  The Mountain West would like Utah to go here, but BYU will sell their allotment for this one, while the Utes will not.

The Pac-10 opponent could be a host of teams, but we think it will be either Stanford or Oregon State.  One of those two will play here, while the other plays in the Emerald Bowl.  We’ll go with Stanford here.  If Oregon State beats Oregon, then Southern Cal or California might fall to this game.

Meineke Car Care Bowl: This bowl will have a choice of Florida State or Boston College.  With Bobby Bowden announcing his retirement tomorrow, the Seminoles will jump over the Eagles.  Rutgers should get the Big East invitation in this game.

Music City Bowl: This could be an interesting rivalry game.  How about North Carolina facing South Carolina?  Since the Gamecocks joined the SEC in 1991, these two teams have played just once.

Liberty Bowl: Arkansas looks like the best option here.  The Razorbacks will fill up the stadium.  The Conference USA champion automatically plays here, so that means either Houston or East Carolina will be the opponent.  Houston and Arkansas would make this a 100-pass, 4-hour game with maybe 100+ points scored.

Sun Bowl: If Oregon wins Thursday, we believe California will be the Pac-10 representative.  Oklahoma looks like the best fit for the Big 12.

Champs Sports Bowl: If Clemson wins over Georgia Tech, Miami should fall to this bowl.  If Georgia Tech wins over Clemson, then Miami moves up to the Gator and Clemson falls here.  Northwestern should be the Big 10 opponent, but if Wisconsin loses to Hawaii, NU could move up and the Badgers could fall here.

Alamo Bowl: Texas Tech should receive this bid, and their opponent should be Michigan State.  It could take 40 points to win this game.

The Bottom Tier

 

St. Petersburg Bowl: This second year bowl has a chance to make a big splash by bringing together two in-state teams that played each other the last four years but not this year.  Central Florida and South Florida could sell this game out.  We think it is a strong possibility, but the chances for this dream game have dropped some the last few days.

New Mexico Bowl: Unless some back room deals are made, the Mountain West opponent will be Wyoming.  There could be some wheeling and dealing to bring an at-large team here and ship Wyoming to the Humanitarian Bowl, but for now, we’ll keep the Cowboys here.  The WAC opponent will be either Nevada or Fresno State.  If Hawaii upsets Wisconsin, then there will be one extra WAC team available.  For now, we’ll stick with Nevada.

New Orleans Bowl: Troy won the Sunbelt Conference Championship and earns the automatic bid here.  There is a rule where the SBC champion could move to a higher-paying bowl, but for that to happen, the SBC must supply two additional seven-win teams.  There are only two of these teams, so Troy will play here barring some “exception.”   The C-USA opponent should be Southern Mississippi.

Poinsettia Bowl: All signs point to BYU playing here, but we just don’t see the Las Vegas bowl passing over the Cougars for Utah.  So, we’re going against the grain and picking Utah to end up in San Diego.  Arizona looks like the Pac-10 opponent.  If the Wildcats upset USC, then there is a small chance they could move up.

Hawaii Bowl:  Here’s where a giant monkey wrench could be thrown into the bowl games.  Hawaii will get this bid with a win over Wisconsin.  We might be biased, but we think the Badgers can pull this one out.  So, in that case, Fresno State should be the WAC representative.  The hot CUSA choice is SMU, which would bring June Jones back to the island.  Since this bowl desperately wants a Hawaii-SMU game, look for this week’s Hawaii-Wisconsin game to be one of the most partially-biased officiated games.

Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl: This bowl could be in for a mess.  Central Michigan played here last year, so it looks like the Chippewas are headed to Mobile, Alabama.  A bigger problem is that there will not be a Big 10 team available for this game.  Because the at-large pool must take all the seven-win teams before any 6-6 team can be selected, this bowl might have to invite two MAC teams, neither of which are the conference champion.

Ohio U should be the official MAC selection.  This bowl would love to bring Notre Dame here, but even if one 6-6 team can be chosen, it looks like the Irish will vote not to play in any bowls.  Middle Tennessee, at 9-3, would be the best at-large option, but we believe the Blue Raiders will be invited somewhere else first.  So, this bowl will have to look for two MAC teams that have not played.  That leaves Northern Illinois against Bowling Green.

Emerald Bowl: Boston College will be the last available ACC team, and they will fortunate to sell half of their ticket allotment.  Oregon State or Stanford will be the opponent here, and since we pegged Stanford for the Las Vegas Bowl, we’ll put the Beavers here.

Independence Bowl: This bowl is tired of having teams that don’t want to be here, but it will be the case once again with the SEC.  Georgia could very well end up here if the Chick-fil-A looks elsewhere.  The Big 12 representative will come down to either Texas A&M or Iowa State.  If Georgia is chosen to play in Atlanta, then this bowl will jump at the chance to pit Auburn with Iowa State for obvious reasons (Auburn coach Gene Chizik was at Iowa State and Iowa State coach Paul Rhoads was at Auburn).  Under the assumption that Auburn will play in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, we’ll slate Georgia here against Texas A&M.

Eagle Bank Bowl: This second year bowl faces the possibility that neither of its two tie-ins will be able to supply a team.  Army has to beat Navy to earn their bid.  We believe that will happen, and the Cadets will make life easier for this bowl.  The ACC will definitely not have an available team for this bowl, so an at-large team will be selected.  Temple will be making its first bowl trip in almost two decades, so the Owls will be a good choice.  If Army loses to Navy, then a 6-6 team will end up here.  Since Notre Dame will not be available if they vote not to go to a bowl, Marshall may get this bid, even though Coach Mark Snyder just resigned.

Humanitarian Bowl: With Boise State almost assured of making it to a BCS Bowl if Texas beats Nebraska, this bowl will look to Idaho to replace the Broncos.  With TCU earning a BCS bowl, the MWC will not have an available team for this game.  With all the seven-win teams coming from over 1,500 miles away from Boise, it looks like UCLA could become the one 6-6 bowl team and play here.

Armed Forces Bowl:  The MWC team should be Air Force, as it is a no-brainer to have a service academy playing here.  The C-USA opponent should be the loser of the ECU-Houston game this week.  Houston would be a great counterpart.

Texas Bowl: Navy has already secured one of these spots.  Iowa State or Texas A&M will be the opponent depending on which way the Independence bowl goes.

Insight.com Bowl: Minnesota will be the last Big Ten team in the bowl pecking order, so the Gophers will get this bid.  Missouri is the likely Big 12 opponent.

International Bowl:  Connecticut is the logical choice as the Big East representative.  Ohio U may be shipped here, as they cannot play in the Pizza Bowl against either Bowling Green or Northern Illinois (they beat both).

PapaJohns.com Bowl: Kentucky should be the last available SEC team, and the Wildcats will travel well to Birmingham.  West Virginia would be an excellent opponent here.

NCAA Top 25 For November 30, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	134.2	12	0
2	Florida	133.2	12	0
3	Alabama	128.0	12	0
4	T C U	125.4	12	0
5	Oklahoma	124.0	7	5
6	Boise State	120.9	12	0
7	Virginia Tech	120.5	9	3
8	Oregon	119.7	9	2
9	Georgia Tech	119.3	10	2
10	Texas Tech	117.9	8	4
11	Penn State	117.7	10	2
12	Southern Cal	117.7	8	3
13	Ohio State	117.6	10	2
14	Miami (Fla)	117.4	9	3
15	Stanford	116.9	8	4
16	Nebraska	116.1	9	3
17	Arkansas	115.5	7	5
18	Iowa	114.8	10	2
19	California	114.6	8	3
20	Cincinnati	114.4	11	0
21	Pittsburgh	114.2	9	2
22	Oklahoma State	113.9	9	3
23	Ole Miss	113.2	8	4
24	L  S  U	112.5	9	3
25	Oregon State	112.1	8	3
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	6-2	8-4	111.8
Florida State	4-4	6-6	107.6
Boston College	5-3	8-4	107.1
Wake Forest	3-5	5-7	104.8
North Carolina State	2-6	5-7	102.7
Maryland	1-7	2-10	93.0
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	6-2	9-3	120.5
Georgia Tech	7-1	10-2	119.3
Miami-FL	5-3	9-3	117.4
North Carolina	4-4	8-4	110.9
Duke	3-5	5-7	98.4
Virginia	2-6	3-9	94.8

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	7-0	11-0	114.4
Pittsburgh	5-1	9-2	114.2
West Virginia	4-2	8-3	105.9
Connecticut	2-4	6-5	105.8
Rutgers	3-3	8-3	102.2
South Florida	3-3	7-4	101.8
Syracuse	1-6	4-8	93.9
Louisville	1-6	4-8	90.5

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Penn State	6-2	10-2	117.7
Ohio State	7-1	10-2	117.6
Iowa	6-2	10-2	114.8
Wisconsin	5-3	8-3	105.3
Michigan State	4-4	6-6	101.5
Northwestern	5-3	8-4	99.3
Purdue	4-4	5-7	99.0
Minnesota	3-5	6-6	97.9
Michigan	1-7	5-7	96.6
Illinois	2-6	3-8	96.2
Indiana	1-7	4-8	90.9

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	6-2	9-3	116.1
Missouri	4-4	8-4	104.8
Kansas	1-7	5-7	103.9
Kansas State	4-4	6-6	99.4
Colorado	2-6	3-9	97.4
Iowa State	3-5	6-6	94.9
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	8-0	12-0	134.2
Oklahoma	5-3	7-5	124.0
Texas Tech	5-3	8-4	117.9
Oklahoma State	6-2	9-3	113.9
Texas A&M	3-5	6-6	103.4
Baylor	1-7	4-8	96.6

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	6-2	8-4	104.1
East Carolina	7-1	8-4	103.9
Southern Mississippi	5-3	7-5	100.9
Marshall	4-4	6-6	92.4
U A B	4-4	5-7	91.0
Memphis	1-7	2-10	83.4
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	6-2	10-2	108.7
Tulsa	3-5	5-7	91.6
U T E P	3-5	4-8	90.8
S M U	6-2	7-5	88.4
Rice	2-6	2-10	76.4
Tulane	1-7	3-9	71.1

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-6	105.9
Navy		8-4	100.6
Army		5-6	82.0

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	7-1	9-3	100.7
Ohio U	7-1	9-3	95.0
Buffalo	3-5	5-7	92.4
Bowling Green	6-2	7-5	91.4
Kent St.	4-4	6-6	84.7
Akron	2-6	3-9	81.5
Miami (O)	1-7	1-11	76.3
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	8-0	10-2	108.9
Northern Illinois	5-3	7-5	95.1
Toledo	3-5	5-7	87.1
Western Michigan	4-4	5-7	86.2
Ball State	2-6	2-10	83.0
Eastern Michigan	0-8	0-12	74.2

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	8-0	12-0	125.4
B Y U	7-1	10-2	111.1
Utah	6-2	9-3	107.7
Air Force	5-3	7-5	100.7
Wyoming	4-4	6-6	87.9
UNLV	3-5	5-7	86.8
Colo. State	0-8	3-9	86.1
S. D. State	3-5	5-7	85.2
New Mexico	1-7	1-11	77.8

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	7-1	9-2	119.7
Southern Cal	5-3	8-3	117.7
Stanford	6-3	8-4	116.9
California	5-3	8-3	114.6
Oregon St.	6-2	8-3	112.1
Arizona	5-3	7-4	111.4
U C L A	3-6	6-6	105.3
Arizona St.	2-7	4-8	102.1
Washington	3-5	4-7	97.6
Wash. St.	0-9	1-11	70.8

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	8-0	12-0	133.2
Tennessee	4-4	7-5	110.9
South Carolina	3-5	7-5	110.9
Georgia	4-4	7-5	110.4
Kentucky	3-5	7-5	104.4
Vanderbilt	0-8	2-10	93.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	8-0	12-0	128.0
Arkansas	3-5	7-5	115.5
Ole Miss	4-4	8-4	113.2
L S U	5-3	9-3	112.5
Auburn	3-5	7-5	107.7
Mississippi State	3-5	5-7	104.2

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	8-0	9-3	99.0
Middle Tennessee	7-1	9-3	96.2
Louisiana-Monroe	5-3	6-6	86.8
Arkansas State	2-5	3-8	86.2
U. of Louisiana	4-4	6-6	83.7
Florida Atlantic	4-3	4-7	83.2
Florida International	3-4	3-8	81.7
North Texas	1-7	2-10	76.4
Western Kentucky	0-7	0-11	73.3

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	7-0	12-0	120.9
Nevada	7-1	8-4	108.6
Fresno State	6-2	7-4	99.0
Louisiana Tech	2-5	3-8	97.2
Utah State	3-5	4-8	91.9
Idaho	4-4	7-5	89.6
Hawaii	3-5	6-6	87.7
San Jose State	1-6	2-9	81.1
New Mexico State	1-6	3-9	71.0

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Thursday, December 3		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Arkansas State	WESTERN KY.	10.2	34-24	9
OREGON	Oregon State	10.3	38-28	9
Friday, December 4		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Central Michigan  (Det.)	Ohio U	14.9	35-20	7
Saturday, December 5		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
CONNECTICUT	South Florida	7.3	27-20	7
PITTSBURGH	Cincinnati	2.8	24-21	0
West Virginia	RUTGERS	0.7	28-27	0
Houston	EAST CAROLINA	1.8	37-35	5
ILLINOIS	Fresno State	0.7	31-30	-3
LOUISIANA TECH	San Jose St.	19.1	40-21	16
BOISE STATE	New Mexico St.	53.4	63-10	44
SOUTHERN CAL	Arizona	10.6	24-13	6
Florida (Atlanta)	Alabama	5.2	21-16	2
California	WASHINGTON	14.0	35-21	8
FLORIDA INT’L	Florida Atlantic	0.5	27-26	1
Texas (Dallas)	Nebraska	19.6	27-7	14
Wisconsin	HAWAII	13.6	38-24	11
Saturday, December 12		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Navy  (N-Philadelphia)	Army	18.6	35-16	8

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 23-28, 2009

Rivalry Week

Throw The Stats Out The Window

 

This is the college football week where more money is lost by those who don’t know what they are doing and more money is made by those who do know.  Certain rivalry games are just that—real rivalries.  Others are nothing but an annual beating on a little sister.

 

There is another bigger factor to this week’s games.  It’s the bowl factor.  Several teams are still looking for one final win to become bowl eligible.  A 5-6 team hosting an 8-3 team must be looked at quite differently than a 2-9 team hosting a 4-7 team.  The desire to get to 6-6 far outweighs the desire to avoid a 10-loss season.

 

NCAA Top 25 For November 23, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	137.0	11	0
2	Florida	133.1	11	0
3	Alabama	130.4	11	0
4	T C U	125.3	11	0
5	Oklahoma	122.5	6	5
6	Georgia Tech	121.5	10	1
7	Boise St.	120.8	11	0
8	Oregon	119.7	9	2
9	Va. Tech	119.5	8	3
10	Texas Tech	118.8	7	4
11	Penn St.	117.7	10	2
12	Ohio St.	117.6	10	2
13	Southern Cal	116.9	7	3
14	Nebraska	116.7	8	3
15	Stanford	116.7	7	4
16	Ole Miss	116.5	8	3
17	Miami (Fla.)	116.1	8	3
18	Pittsburgh	115.6	9	1
19	Arkansas	115.5	7	4
20	Okla. St.	115.4	9	2
21	Cincinnati	115.2	10	0
22	Iowa	114.8	10	2
23	California	114.6	8	3
24	Clemson	114.5	8	3
25	L  S  U	112.5	8	3
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

 

Let’s look at the bowl eligible teams by conference as well as the teams needing to win this week to gain bowl eligibility.

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	6-2	8-3	114.5
Boston College	4-3	7-4	107.8
Florida State	4-4	6-5	107.7
Wake Forest	2-5	4-7	104.0
North Carolina State	1-6	4-7	101.2
Maryland	1-6	2-9	92.3
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Georgia Tech	7-1	10-1	121.5
Virginia Tech	5-2	8-3	119.5
Miami-FL	5-3	8-3	116.1
North Carolina	4-3	8-3	112.4
Duke	3-4	5-6	99.2
Virginia	2-6	3-8	95.8

 

Clemson and Georgia Tech have already clinched their divisions and will meet for the ACC Championship.  Tech edges the Tigers in Atlanta in September, but Clemson gave the game away.

 

Duke needs to beat Wake Forest this week to earn their first bowl in 15 years.  David Cutcliffe is one of the most underrated coaches in the country, and he should receive some national recognition in the Coach of the Year balloting.

 

The ACC has nine automatic bowl bids, and only seven bowl eligible teams as of now.  The GMAC Bowl will need to find an at-large team to fill the vacant position, and if Duke loses this week, the Eagle Bank Bowl will look to the MAC to fill that vacant slot.

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Pittsburgh	5-0	9-1	115.6
Cincinnati	6-0	10-0	115.2
West Virginia	3-2	7-3	104.5
Connecticut	1-4	5-5	104.1
Rutgers	2-3	7-3	101.1
South Florida	3-3	7-3	103.1
Syracuse	1-5	4-7	95.6
Louisville	1-5	4-7	91.6

 

Regardless of what happens in the Backyard Brawl in Morgantown this weekend, the winner of next week’s Cincinnati-Pittsburgh game will be Big East Champions and automatic BCS Bowl representative.  Cincinnati could still conceivably earn an at-large BCS Bowl bid at 11-1, but that chance is slimmer than slim.

 

Connecticut can gain bowl eligibility with a win at home against Syracuse this weekend, and they would get another chance next week against South Florida if they faltered against the Orangemen.  If the Huskies get that win, then the Big East will have six bowl eligible teams for six guaranteed spots.  Notre Dame could still possibly steal the Sun Bowl/Gator Bowl spot that goes to a Big East team if the Irish beat Stanford, but it would be a disgrace for them to steal a post at 7-5.  We believe Stanford will take care of business and keep Notre Dame out of the bowl picture altogether this year.

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Penn State	6-2	10-2	117.7
Ohio State	7-1	10-2	117.6
Iowa	6-2	10-2	114.8
Wisconsin	5-3	8-3	105.3
Michigan State	4-4	6-6	101.5
Northwestern	5-3	8-4	99.3
Purdue	4-4	5-7	99.0
Minnesota	3-5	6-6	97.9
Michigan	1-7	5-7	96.6
Illinois	2-6	3-7	95.4
Indiana	1-7	4-8	90.9

 

The Big 10 season is basically over.  Illinois has a couple of non-conference games remaining, and the only important factor in that is they play Cincinnati this weekend.  Wisconsin goes to Hawaii in two weeks, and the Outback Bowl bid could be riding on them winning the game.

 

It is almost a foregone conclusion that a second Big 10 team, either Iowa or Penn State, will receive an at-large BCS Bowl bid.  So, there will be seven teams available for eight bowls.  The Pizza Bowl (formerly Motor City Bowl) will have to look elsewhere and may be forced to invite two MAC teams.

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	5-2	8-3	116.7
Missouri	3-4	7-4	104.7
Kansas	1-6	5-6	104.0
Kansas State	4-4	6-6	99.4
Colorado	2-5	3-8	96.8
Iowa State	3-5	6-6	94.9
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	7-0	11-0	137.0
Oklahoma	4-3	6-5	122.5
Texas Tech	4-3	7-4	118.8
Oklahoma State	6-1	9-2	115.4
Texas A&M	3-4	6-5	100.6
Baylor	1-6	4-7	95.7

 

Nebraska and Texas will face off in the Big 12 Championship Game, and the Cornhuskers may have a shot at pulling off a huge upset.  We give the ‘Huskers about a 15% chance of frustrating the Longhorn offense and win ugly.  If so, then another team from the Lone Star State will benefit.

 

After beginning the season at 5-0, Kansas finds itself in a must-win situation against Missouri at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.  They must earn The Brass Drum to earn a bowl bid.

 

The most important game though will be the Oklahoma and Oklahoma State game in Norman.  If the Cowboys beat the Sooners, they will more than likely earn an at-large BCS Bowl Bid at the expense of Boise State.  The Sooners must win to guarantee themselves a winning season.  The PiRate Ratings have had a devil of a time with OU this year.  Even at 6-5, their power rating keeps them in the top 10.  It’s hit or miss with them, as they showed how strong they are when they took Texas to the final gun.

 

If Kansas wins over Missouri, there will be 10 bowl eligible teams for eight guaranteed bowl spots (nine if Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma).  Look for Iowa State to be the odd team out of the mix.

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	5-2	7-4	104.1
East Carolina	6-1	7-4	103.8
Southern Mississippi	5-2	7-4	101.0
Marshall	4-3	6-5	95.6
U A B	4-3	5-6	91.0
Memphis	1-6	2-9	82.2
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	5-2	9-2	105.2
Tulsa	2-5	4-7	92.8
S M U	5-2	6-5	90.1
U T E P	2-5	3-8	87.6
Rice	2-5	2-9	79.9
Tulane	1-6	3-8	69.4

 

Welcome to the conference where everything changes weekly.  With SMU losing to Marshall, the door opened once again for Houston to ascend to the CUSA Championship Game.  A win over Rice is all that’s needed, but all of a sudden the Owls have found their way.  It could be an interesting game—at least for a half.

 

The East Division championship will be decided this weekend when Southern Miss visits East Carolina.

 

UAB can gain bowl eligibility with a win over  Central Florida, but it may be a moot point.  There are only five guaranteed bowl spots with a sixth if Army fails to earn the Eagle Bank Bowl bid.  Six CUSA teams are already bowl eligible, and the Blazers cannot compete with Marshall or SMU in fanbase.

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-5	106.1
Navy		8-3	103.2
Army		5-6	82.0

 

All three independents are still in the bowl mix, but as of now, only Navy is guaranteed a spot.  Notre Dame must beat Stanford to get to 7-5 and earn priority over every other possible at-large team.  At 6-6, they more than likely will find themselves out of the picture as there will be enough seven-win teams to fill the at-large spots.

 

Army must beat Navy to earn the Eagle Bank Bowl bid.  Navy has won seven in a row in this series, so it should be one of the best in this series in many years.

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	7-0	9-2	103.8
Buffalo	2-5	4-7	92.1
Ohio U	6-1	8-3	91.9
Bowling Green	5-2	6-5	91.0
Kent St.	4-3	6-5	85.0
Akron	1-6	2-9	81.4
Miami (O)	1-7	1-11	76.3
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	7-0	9-2	108.5
Northern Illinois	5-2	7-4	95.2
Western Michigan	4-3	5-6	88.2
Toledo	3-4	5-6	87.5
Ball State	1-6	1-10	81.0
Eastern Michigan	0-7	0-11	74.3

 

Central Michigan has already clinched the West Division, and the Chippewas will play the winner of this week’s Ohio U-Temple game in the MAC Championship Game. 

 

Two teams will be playing for that important seventh win this week.  Bowling Green hosts Toledo, and Kent State hosts Buffalo.

 

The MAC gets three guaranteed bowl bids and will get a fourth if Duke fails to beat Wake Forest and earn an Eagle Bank Bowl bid.   That’s where the Bowling Green and Kent State games come into play.  Both could earn bowl bids with wins, and one could even play in the Pizza Bowl against another MAC team.

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	7-0	11-0	125.3
B Y U	6-1	9-2	111.6
Utah	6-1	9-2	107.2
Air Force	5-3	7-5	100.7
Wyoming	3-4	5-6	87.6
UNLV	2-5	4-7	86.8
Colo. State	0-7	3-8	86.4
S. D. State	2-5	4-7	85.2
New Mexico	1-6	1-10	77.9

 

TCU will manhandle New Mexico this week and then hope that either Texas A&M or Nebraska can upset Texas, Florida State can upset Florida, or Auburn can upset Alabama.  The Horned Frogs need two of the big three teams ahead of them to lose.  The loser of the SEC Championship Game means that either Texas must lose this week or next or the winner of the SEC Championship Game must lose this week.  If one of these events happen, then TCU will be playing for the national championship in January.  It’s hard to believe that this program was once as weak as Syracuse, Vanderbilt, and Washington State are today.

 

The one team still trying to gain bowl eligibility is Wyoming.  The Cowboys must beat Colorado State in Ft. Collins this week, and these two teams truly put the “war” in “Border War.”  It’s not a given that Wyoming can top the 3-8 Rams.

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	7-1	9-2	119.7
Southern Cal	4-3	7-3	116.9
Stanford	6-3	7-4	116.7
California	5-3	8-3	114.6
Oregon St.	6-2	8-3	112.1
Arizona	4-3	6-4	111.4
U C L A	3-5	6-5	106.1
Arizona St.	2-6	4-7	102.1
Washington	2-5	3-7	97.3
Wash. St.	0-8	1-10	71.1

 

For the first time ever, the winner of the “Civil War” game between Oregon and Oregon State will earn the Rose Bowl bid.  The Ducks and Beavers are one of the best rivalry games in college football, and I’d love to have a 50-yard line seat next week in Eugene.

 

The Pac-10 receives six automatic bowl bids, but there are seven bowl eligible teams.  It looks like UCLA will miss out this year unless they can upset USC.  Arizona must beat either Arizona State or USC to get to seven wins.  If both the Bruins and Wildcats win seven games, then expect to see the Pac-10 receiving an extra bid to a western bowl.

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	8-0	11-0	133.1
Tennessee	3-4	6-5	110.7
Georgia	4-4	6-5	108.2
South Carolina	3-5	6-5	108.2
Kentucky	3-4	7-4	104.6
Vanderbilt	0-8	2-10	93.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	7-0	11-0	130.4
Ole Miss	4-3	8-3	116.5
Arkansas	3-4	7-4	115.5
L S U	4-3	8-3	112.5
Auburn	3-4	7-4	105.3
Mississippi State	2-5	4-7	100.9

 

This is a monster conference!  With Alabama and Florida headed to Atlanta to play what will be the “Game Of The Decade” (assuming both win this week), it is a given that the loser will still play in a BCS Bowl.  It isn’t completely out of the realm that if the SEC Championship game goes to overtime or is decided in regulation by a point, and if Texas loses to either Texas A&M or Nebraska, that Alabama and Florida could meet in a rematch for all the marbles.

 

With 10 bowl eligible teams, the SEC will place all 10 in bowls.  There will be a lot of last minute shuffling because there isn’t much difference between team number three and team number 10.

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	7-0	8-3	98.4
Middle Tennessee	6-1	8-3	94.8
Louisiana-Monroe	5-2	6-5	88.2
Arkansas State	1-5	2-8	86.6
U. of Louisiana	4-3	6-5	84.3
Florida Atlantic	3-3	3-7	83.2
Florida International	3-4	3-8	81.7
North Texas	1-6	2-9	76.0
Western Kentucky	0-6	0-10	73.3

 

This league is almost assured of earning a second bowl bid this year.  Troy will play in the New Orleans Bowl, but Middle Tennessee will get an at-large bid somewhere.  Both Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe can get to seven wins, but it will take big upsets for both to do so.  ULL plays Troy, while ULM plays MTSU.

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	6-0	11-0	120.8
Nevada	7-0	8-3	108.7
Fresno State	6-2	7-4	99.0
Louisiana Tech	2-5	3-8	97.2
Utah State	2-5	3-8	91.2
Idaho	4-3	7-4	90.3
Hawaii	3-5	5-6	85.1
San Jose State	0-6	1-9	82.1
New Mexico State	1-5	3-8	70.0

 

Here’s where things should get interesting.  Boise State is a win over Nevada away from being 12-0 and the proverbial odd team out.  If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, the Cowboys will steal the last BCS Bowl bid at the Broncos’ expense.  Then, watch for the United States Government to put their messy fingers into the college football pigpen. 

 

Before we get into this mess, Boise State has to beat Nevada.  The Wolf Pack is not a pushover, and it could easily take 50 or more points to win this game.

 

Of course, if the Sooners win over OSU, then it looks favorable for BSU getting into the field.  Then, they would be competing against a one or two-loss Big East team and maybe a two-loss Georgia Tech team.

 

If Boise State moves up, then the WAC is safe with four bowls for four bowl eligible teams.

 

Hawaii could still sneak into the mix, but they would have to beat Navy and Wisconsin.  We don’t see that happening.

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 24		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
WESTERN MICHIGAN	Ball State	10.2	31-21	10
Thursday, November 26		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Texas	TEXAS A&M	32.9	54-21	21
Friday, November 27		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Rutgers	LOUISVILLE	6.5	28-21	5
CINCINNATI	Illinois	22.5	37-14	25
CENTRAL MICHIGAN	Northern Illinois	16.3	28-12	12
AKRON	Eastern Michigan	9.8	34-24	13
BOWLING GREEN	Toledo	6	40-34	11
COLORADO STATE	Wyoming	1.8	23-21	0
Buffalo	KENT STATE	3.9	28-24	-1
Temple	OHIO U	8.9	30-21	3
Alabama	AUBURN	22.6	33-10	12
Nebraska	COLORADO	16.9	24-7	12
TULSA	Memphis	13.6	38-24	12
Pittsburgh	WEST VIRGINIA	8.6	28-19	3
BOISE STATE	Nevada	15.4	45-30	16
Saturday, November 28		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
CONNECTICUT	Syracuse	11.5	28-16	12
Wake Forest	DUKE	2.1	24-22	-1
North Carolina	N. C. STATE	8.5	26-17	12
Clemson	SOUTH CAROLINA	3.8	31-27	6
Ole Miss	MISSISSIPPI STATE	13.1	34-20	6
OKLAHOMA	Oklahoma State	9.6	38-28	5
T C U	New Mexico	50.9	51-0	43
EAST CAROLINA	Southern Miss	5.8	34-28	6
Central Florida	ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM	10.4	38-28	5
ARKANSAS STATE	North Texas	13.3	34-21	8
S M U	Tulane	23.7	41-17	18
Marshall	U T E P	5.0	35-30	7
Arizona	ARIZONA STATE	6.8	27-20	6
FLORIDA	Florida State	27.9	38-10	21
Missouri  (n)	Kansas	0.7	31-30	3
Boston College	MARYLAND	12.5	34-21	10
Miami-Fl	SOUTH FLORIDA	10.6	28-17	4
Virginia Tech	VIRGINIA	21.2	38-17	15
FLORIDA ATLANTIC	Western Kentucky	12.9	27-14	16
Middle Tennessee	UL-MONROE	3.6	31-27	4
B  Y  U	Utah	7.1	34-27	4
IDAHO	Utah State	2.1	34-32	6
Texas Tech (n)	Baylor	23.1	42-19	18
WASHINGTON	Washington State	28.9	42-13	19
Tennessee	KENTUCKY	3.1	27-24	-1
L  S  U	Arkansas	0.0	27-27 ot	3
Troy	UL-LAFAYETTE	11.1	35-24	9
GEORGIA TECH	Georgia	15.6	44-28	16
HOUSTON	Rice	27.8	49-21	29
SAN JOSE STATE	New Mexico St.	15.1	35-20	7
STANFORD	Notre Dame	13.6	42-28	9
U  N  L  V	San Diego State	4.6	28-23	5
SOUTHERN CAL	U  c  l  a	13.5	28-14	10
Navy	HAWAII	14.1	45-31	12

 

 

Bowl Speculations

Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4	Wyoming	WAC #3	Nevada
St. Petersburg	Big East #6	Connecticut	C-USA #5	Central Fla
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1	Troy	C-USA #4	Southern Miss
Las Vegas	MWC #1	B Y U	Pac 10 #4 or 5	Stanford
Poinsettia	MWC #2	Utah	Pac 10 #6	Arizona
Hawaii	WAC	Fresno St.	C-USA	Houston
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #7	(Bowling Green)	MAC #1 or 2	Temple
Meineke Car Care	ACC #5-6-7	Boston College	Big East #3	West Virginia
Emerald	Pac 10 #4 or 5	Oregon State	ACC #5-6-7	Florida State
Music City	SEC #6 or 7	Kentucky	ACC #5-6-7	North Carolina
Independence	SEC #8	Georgia	Big 12 #7	Kansas State
Eagle Bank	ACC #8	Duke	Army/C-USA	(Marshall)
Champs Sports	ACC #4	Miami-Fl	Big 10 #5	Northwestern
Humanitarian	WAC #1	Idaho	MWC	(Kent State)
Holiday	Big 12 #3	Nebraska	Pac 10 #2	Southern Cal
Armed Forces	C-USA #3	S M U	MWC #3	Air Force
Sun	Pac 10 #3	California	Big 12 #5 or Big East #2	Oklahoma
Texas	Big 12 #8	Texas A&M	Navy or C-USA	NAVY
Insight.com	Big 12 #6	Missouri	Big 10 #6	Minnesota
Chick-fil-A	SEC #5	Auburn	ACC #2	Va. Tech
Outback	SEC #3 or 4	Tennessee	Big 10 #3	Wisconsin
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Iowa	SEC #2	Ole Miss
Gator	Big East #2 or Big 12 #5	Cincinnati	ACC #3	Ga. Tech
Rose	BCS Pac10	Stanford	BCS Big 10	OHIO STATE
Sugar	BCS SEC	(Florida)	BCS At-Large	Boise State
International	Big East #5	Rutgers	MAC #3	Ohio U
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Nebraska	SEC #3 or 4	L S U
Papajohns.com	Big East #4	South Florida	SEC #9	South Carolina
Liberty	SEC #6 or 7	Arkansas	C-USA #1	East Carolina
Alamo	Big 10 #4	Texas Tech	Big 12 #4	Michigan St.
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	(Penn State)	BCS At-Large	T C U
Orange	BCS ACC	Clemson	BCS At-Large	Pittsburgh
G M A C	ACC #9	(Middle Tenn)	MAC	Central Mich.
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	Alabama	*** BCS #2 ***	Texas

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 17-21, 2009

Down The Stretch They Come

 

November has certainly already seen a host of upsets in the college football world, and we here at the PiRate Ratings believe big surprises are still to come.  With six undefeated teams (Florida, Alabama, Texas, TCU, Cincinnati, and Boise State), we see at least two falling before the bowl season.  Obviously, either Alabama or Florida must lose. The last time five teams finished the regular season winning every game was 1951, when Maryland, Tennessee, Michigan State, San Francisco, and Princeton did the trick.

 

The first wave of rivalry games begin this week, topped off by “The Big Game” in Palo Alto between Stanford and Cal.  The Cardinal now have a shot at winning the Pac-10 and earning a trip to Pasadena to face Ohio State.

 

Speaking of the Buckeyes, Ohio State ventures to the Big House to take on Michigan.  The Wolverines must win to gain bowl eligibility, and a loss will send several dozen more Maize & Blue fans to www.firerrod.com.

 

NCAA Top 25 For November 16, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	136.9	10	0
2	Florida	131.9	10	0
3	Alabama	129.9	9	0
4	Oklahoma	129.5	6	4
5	T C U	125.0	10	0
6	Georgia Tech	121.5	10	1
7	Boise St.	120.2	10	0
8	Oregon	119.9	8	2
9	Va. Tech	118.6	7	3
10	Stanford	118.0	7	3
11	Ohio St.	117.9	9	2
12	Nebraska	117.5	7	3
13	Okla. St.	117.0	8	2
14	Southern Cal	116.9	7	3
15	Ole Miss	116.7	7	3
16	Miami (Fla.)	116.1	7	3
17	Pittsburgh	115.6	9	1
18	Clemson	115.4	7	3
19	Cincinnati	115.2	10	0
20	Penn St.	115.1	9	2
21	Iowa	115.1	9	2
22	Arkansas	115.0	6	4
23	California	113.3	7	3
24	L  S  U	112.3	8	2
25	Texas Tech	112.3	6	4
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	5-2	7-3	115.4
Boston College	4-2	7-3	110.6
Florida State	3-4	5-5	109.3
Wake Forest	2-5	4-7	104.0
North Carolina State	1-5	4-6	102.1
Maryland	1-5	2-8	90.7
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Georgia Tech	7-1	10-1	121.5
Virginia Tech	4-2	7-3	118.6
Miami-FL	4-3	7-3	116.1
North Carolina	3-3	7-3	109.6
Duke	3-3	5-5	99.2
Virginia	2-5	3-7	94.9

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Pittsburgh	5-0	9-1	115.6
Cincinnati	6-0	10-0	115.2
West Virginia	3-2	7-3	104.5
Rutgers	2-2	7-2	104.2
Connecticut	1-4	4-5	103.1
South Florida	2-3	6-3	102.9
Syracuse	0-5	3-7	92.5
Louisville	1-4	4-6	91.8

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	6-1	9-2	117.9
Penn State	5-2	9-2	115.1
Iowa	5-2	9-2	115.1
Wisconsin	5-2	8-2	106.1
Michigan State	4-3	6-5	104.1
Northwestern	4-3	7-4	98.5
Minnesota	3-4	6-5	97.6
Purdue	3-4	4-7	96.8
Michigan	1-6	5-6	96.3
Illinois	2-6	3-7	95.4
Indiana	1-6	4-7	93.1

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	4-2	7-3	117.5
Missouri	2-4	6-4	104.6
Kansas	1-5	5-5	104.1
Kansas State	4-3	6-5	98.6
Colorado	2-4	3-7	95.2
Iowa State	3-4	6-5	95.0
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	6-0	10-0	136.9
Oklahoma	4-2	6-4	129.5
Oklahoma State	5-1	8-2	117.0
Texas Tech	3-3	6-4	112.3
Baylor	1-5	4-6	101.2
Texas A&M	2-4	5-5	95.1

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
East Carolina	5-1	6-4	103.8
Southern Mississippi	4-2	6-4	100.9
Central Florida	4-2	6-4	98.1
Marshall	3-3	5-5	95.5
U A B	4-2	5-5	91.0
Memphis	1-5	2-8	83.0
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	4-2	8-2	104.4
Tulsa	2-4	4-6	92.9
S M U	5-1	6-4	90.2
U T E P	2-4	3-7	89.9
Rice	1-5	1-9	77.3
Tulane	1-5	3-7	75.4

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-4	107.1
Navy		8-3	103.2
Army		3-7	81.9

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	6-0	8-2	101.4
Ohio U	5-1	7-3	91.3
Bowling Green	4-2	5-5	90.6
Buffalo	1-5	3-7	90.5
Kent St.	4-2	5-5	87.4
Akron	1-5	2-8	81.8
Miami (O)	1-6	1-10	77.9
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	6-0	8-2	107.1
Northern Illinois	5-1	7-3	95.8
Western Michigan	4-3	5-6	88.2
Toledo	2-4	4-6	86.3
Ball State	1-5	1-9	82.4
Eastern Michigan	0-6	0-10	75.5

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	6-0	10-0	125.0
B Y U	5-1	8-2	110.9
Utah	5-1	8-2	105.8
Air Force	5-2	7-4	101.3
Colo. State	0-6	3-7	88.5
Wyoming	3-3	5-5	87.9
UNLV	2-5	4-7	86.8
S. D. State	2-4	4-6	86.6
New Mexico	0-6	0-10	75.8

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	6-1	8-2	119.9
Stanford	6-2	7-3	118.0
Southern Cal	4-3	7-3	116.9
California	4-3	7-3	113.3
Arizona	4-2	6-3	111.2
Oregon St.	5-2	7-3	109.5
U C L A	2-5	5-5	105.6
Arizona St.	2-5	4-6	102.6
Washington	2-5	3-7	97.3
Wash. St.	0-7	1-9	73.7

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	8-0	10-0	131.9
Tennessee	2-4	5-5	111.3
Georgia	4-3	6-4	109.2
South Carolina	3-5	6-5	108.2
Kentucky	2-4	6-4	103.6
Vanderbilt	0-7	2-9	92.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	7-0	10-0	129.9
Ole Miss	3-3	7-3	116.7
Arkansas	2-4	6-4	115.0
L S U	4-2	8-2	112.3
Auburn	3-4	7-4	105.3
Mississippi State	2-4	4-6	101.4

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	6-0	7-3	97.6
Middle Tennessee	5-1	7-3	92.4
Louisiana-Monroe	5-1	6-4	89.3
Arkansas State	1-4	2-7	89.0
Florida Atlantic	3-2	3-6	84.0
U. of Louisiana	3-3	5-5	83.2
Florida International	3-4	3-7	82.9
North Texas	1-6	2-8	76.1
Western Kentucky	0-6	0-10	73.3

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	5-0	10-0	120.2
Nevada	6-0	7-3	107.1
Fresno State	5-2	6-4	99.7
Louisiana Tech	2-4	3-7	96.5
Utah State	2-4	3-7	91.8
Idaho	4-3	7-4	90.3
Hawaii	2-5	4-6	85.0
San Jose State	0-5	1-8	82.2
New Mexico State	1-4	3-7	71.6

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Wednesday, November 18		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Central Michigan	BALL STATE	22.2	38-16	20
Buffalo	MIAMI (O)	10.1	27-17	3
Thursday, November 19		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
OKLAHOMA STATE	Colorado	24.8	38-13	21
Friday, November 20		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
BOWLING GREEN	Akron	11.5	35-23	15
TOLEDO	E  M  U	13.8	41-27	15
Boise State	UTAH STATE	25.4	35-10	25
Saturday, November 21		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Ohio State	MICHIGAN	18.1	35-17	16
Northern Illinois	OHIO U	1.5	26-24	-1
CLEMSON	Virginia	23.8	34-10	19
Wisconsin	NORTHWESTERN	4.6	28-23	7
IOWA	Minnesota	20.5	35-14	14
SOUTH FLORIDA	Louisville	14.1	24-10	12
Rutgers	SYRACUSE	8.7	30-21	12
Purdue	INDIANA	1.0	35-34	0
FLORIDA STATE	Maryland	21.6	40-18	18
BOSTON COLLEGE	North Carolina	4.0	21-17	3
VIRGINIA TECH	North Carolina State	19.8	34-14	21
MISSOURI	Iowa State	12.6	34-21	9
TENNESSEE	Vanderbilt	21.8	28-6	19
GEORGIA	Kentucky	8.6	33-24	6
TEMPLE	Kent State	17.0	38-21	13
T  c  u	WYOMING	34.1	44-10	26
ARKANSAS	Mississippi State	16.6	45-28	10
NOTRE DAME	Connecticut	7.0	35-28	6
Oregon State	WASHINGTON STATE	33.1	40-7	25
Penn State	MICHIGAN STATE	8.0	31-23	5
U  C  L  A	Arizona State	6.0	27-21	5
STANFORD	California	7.2	30-23	7
OLE MISS	L  s  u	7.4	31-24	1
B  Y  U	Air Force	12.6	27-14	7
EAST CAROLINA	U  a  b	15.8	37-21	10
NEBRASKA	Kansas State	22.4	31-9	15
Oklahoma	TEXAS TECH	13.2	34-21	2
Baylor	TEXAS A&M	3.1	27-24	-5
U  t  e  p	RICE	10.1	37-27	5
UTAH	San Diego State	22.2	35-13	21
FRESNO STATE	La. Tech	6.5	31-24	11
Colorado State	NEW MEXICO	9.7	24-14	8
Oregon	ARIZONA	5.4	31-26	4
MARSHALL	S  m  u	8.3	31-23	4
SOUTHERN MISS	Tulsa	11.0	31-20	9
TEXAS	Kansas	36.3	50-14	29
MIAMI (FLA)	Duke	19.9	37-17	17
HOUSTON	Memphis	24.4	55-31	23
CENTRAL FLORIDA	Tulane	25.7	40-14	20
Nevada	NEW MEXICO ST.	32.8	50-17	22
SAN JOSE ST.	Hawaii	0.7	28-27	-3
FLORIDA	Florida Int’l	52.0	52-0	41
Army	NORTH TEXAS	2.3	24-22	0
TROY	Florida Atlantic	16.6	34-17	14
UL-Monroe	UL-LAFAYETTE	3.6	27-23	2
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Arkansas State	6.4	28-22	13

 

Bowl Speculating

 

Ohio State has become the second team to know where they will be bowling this year and the first team to clinch a BCS Bowl Bid.  However, the weekend may have muddied up the bowl projections more than helped clear things up.

 

The Atlantic Coast Conference

Georgia Tech continues to impress every week, and the Yellow Jackets have clinched the Coastal Division championship.  Clemson needs only to beat Virginia to earn the Atlantic Division title.  It is our opinion that Clemson will beat Georgia Tech in a rematch for the ACC Championship and Orange Bowl Bid.  At 11-2, the Yellow Jackets could still gain an at-large BCS Bowl Bid, but it would have to come at the expense of a 13-0 Boise State team.  With Wake Forest being ousted from bowl talk, it looks like the ACC will come up at least one team short and possibly two.  Duke must beat Wake Forest to get to six wins and make it to their first bowl in 15 years.

 

1. Orange Bowl—Clemson

2. Chick-fil-A—Virginia Tech

3. Gator—Georgia Tech

4. Champs Sports—Miami (Fl)

5. Music City—North Carolina

6. Meineke Car Care—Boston College

7. Emerald—Florida State

8. Eagle Bank—Duke

9. GMAC—No Team Available

 

The Big East

Cincinnati just escaped against West Virginia, while Pittsburgh handled Notre Dame.  The Panthers game with the Mountaineers in the “Backyard Brawl” actually doesn’t matter this year.  The winner of the Pitt-Cincinnati game wins the championship.  We’ll go with Coach Dave Wannstedt’s Panthers.  Cincinnati could qualify as an at-large BCS team at 11-1, but we don’t think the big bowls will take the Bearcats.  That might be the final straw for Brian Kelly in the Queen City.  He may bolt for South Bend or even Ann Arbor.

 

1. Orange Bowl—Pittsburgh

2. Sun—Cincinnati

3. Meineke Car Care—Rutgers

4. Papa John’s—South Florida

5. International—West Virginia

6. St. Petersburg—Connecticut

 

The Big Ten

Ohio State clinched the Big Ten Championship and Rose Bowl bid with the overtime win over Iowa.  It now looks like the second best team in this league will earn a last-minute BCS at-large bid.  If Iowa wins this week against Minnesota, the Hawkeyes should get that bid.

 

Michigan will not be bowl eligible after losing at home to Ohio State this weekend, so if the Big 10 gets a second BCS bowl team, they will come up one short.

 

1. Rose-OHIO STATE (accepted bid)

2. Fiesta—Iowa

3. Capital One—Wisconsin

4. Outback—Penn State

5. Alamo—Michigan State

6. Champs Sports—Minnesota

7. Insight—Northwestern

8. Pizza—No team available

 

The Big 12

Texas should quickly dispose of Kansas and Texas A&M to reach the Big 12 Title game, but a possible game against Nebraska could be quite interesting.  For now, we will stick with the notion that the Longhorns will run the table and make it to the National Championship Game.  If the Cornhuskers win out, they should still garner the Cotton Bowl bid if they lose to Texas.  With Iowa State winning its sixth game, and the only chance this conference has of getting a second team in the BCS being a Nebraska upset of Texas, we believe there will be one excess team.  However, that extra team will be 6-6 and out of luck.

 

1. National Championship—Texas

2. Cotton–Nebraska

3. Holiday—Oklahoma

4. Alamo—Oklahoma State

5. Sun—Missouri

6. Insight—Texas Tech

7. Independence—Kansas State

8. Texas—Texas A&M

 

Iowa State out of luck at 6-6

 

Conference USA

As Chester A. Riley would have said, “What a revoltin’ development this is!”  Houston’s loss to Central Florida has thrust SMU into first place in the West Division.  If Coach June Jones’ Mustangs beat Marshall this week, they are in the CUSA Championship Game.  Central Florida is now thickly in the East Division race, but it is now a four-team battle.  If UAB beats East Carolina and UCF, the Blazers would win the division title.  Who would have ever thought that on November 16, the CUSA Championship Game could still be a battle between SMU and UAB?

 

1. Liberty—East Carolina

2. Hawaii—Houston

3. Armed Forces—S M U

4. New Orleans—Southern Miss

5. St. Petersburg—Central Florida

 

Marshall & UAB at 6-6 will miss out on bowl bids

 

Independents

There’s no confusion here.  Navy has earned a Texas Bowl bid.  Army has failed to earn the Eagle Bank Bowl bid that is reserved for them this year.  Notre Dame’s BCS bowl hopes are gone and barring wins over both Connecticut and Stanford, the Irish won’t earn the Sun or Gator Bowl bids that they could receive.  However, with one more win, they become the top non-BCS at-large bowl hopeful.

 

1. Texas—Navy

2. Eagle Bank—Notre Dame (at-large)

 

Mid-American

The MAC will benefit from all the bowls that will need to seek at-large participants.  This league receives three automatic bowl bids, but we expect five schools to go bowling.  Central Michigan played in the Motor City Bowl last year (now the Pizza Bowl), so the Chippewas will probably be sent south to Mobile.

 

The Pizza Bowl will not have a Big 10 representative, and while they’d love to lure Notre Dame, the Irish will go to the highest bidder.  That will force them to invite a second MAC team.

 

1. G M A C—Central Michigan

2. Pizza—Temple

3. International—Ohio U

4. Humanitarian—Northern Illinois (at-large)

5. Pizza—Bowling Green (at-large)

 

Mountain West

T C U plays at Wyoming this weekend, and the Cowboys will be ready to give them all they can handle.  We think TCU will win by double digits, but it is one of those ambush situations.  A home finale with winless New Mexico will be little more than a scrimmage.

 

BYU and Utah close the regular season with their rivalry match, and the winner should wind up in Vegas.  Air Force has wrapped up the fourth bowl bid, and Wyoming is one win away from sneaking in as the fifth.  We expect them to beat Colorado State and get it.

 

1. Fiesta—T C U

2. Las Vegas—Utah

3. Poinsettia—B Y U

4. Armed Forces—Air Force

5. New Mexico—Wyoming

6. Humanitarian—No team available

 

Pac-10

This is another interesting race.  If Arizona beats Oregon this week, and Stanford beats California, then Arizona, Oregon, Oregon State, and Stanford will be tied for first with two conference losses.  Arizona would then win the Pac-10 and get the Rose Bowl bid.  However, the Wildcats must finish at Arizona State and at Southern Cal, and we see them failing to get to 7-2.  If Arizona beats Oregon, and Stanford beats Cal, then the Cardinal would be heading to Pasadena, unless Oregon State could win at Oregon “The Civil War.”  At 7-2, Oregon State gets the tiebreaker over Stanford.

 

1. Rose—Stanford

2. Holiday—Oregon

3. Sun—Southern Cal

4. Las Vegas—Arizona

5. Emerald—Oregon State

6. Poinsettia—California

 

U C L A will finish 6-6 and not receive a bid

 

Southeastern

Alabama will practice with Chattanooga this week, and then finish the regular season at Auburn.  It could be interesting for a half, but the Tide will head to Atlanta at 12-0.  Florida also has a breather with Florida International, but they have a tough finale with Florida State.  We believe the Seminoles have a small shot at pulling off the big upset.

 

With two BCS bowl bids virtually a certainty, the SEC will send 10 teams to bowls this year.

 

1. National Championship—Alabama

2. Sugar—Florida

3. Capital One—Ole Miss

4. Cotton—L S U

5. Outback—Tennessee

6. Chick-fil-A—Auburn

7. Music City—Georgia

8. Liberty—Arkansas

9. Independence—South Carolina

10. Papa John’s—Kentucky

 

Sunbelt

Troy has just about clinched the conference championship, so they will receive the sole automatic bowl bid.  Middle Tennessee has already reached the magic seven win mark, so the Blue Raiders will get an at-large bid.

 

1. New Orleans—Troy

2. G M A C—Middle Tennessee (at-large)

 

Western Athletic

Boise State cannot chalk up a perfect regular season just yet.  The Broncos still must face the most potent offense in the nation.  Nevada must play at Bronco Stadium, so Boise State should win and finish 13-0.  We strongly believe that while the BCS Bowls would rather invite a two-loss team from one of the big six conferences, they will have their arms pulled and be highly coerced into inviting a second non-BCS team into the BCS Bowl structure.  It’s funny how the threat of a Justice Department investigation can determine bowl participants.

 

1. Sugar—Boise State

2. Hawaii—Fresno State

3. New Mexico—Nevada

4. Humanitarian—Idaho

 

• * = At-large selection
• ALL CAPS AND BOLD = ACCEPTED BID

Bowl	Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	Wyoming	vs.	Nevada
St. Petersburg	Connecticut	vs.	Central Fla
New Orleans	Troy	vs.	Southern Miss
Las Vegas	Utah	vs.	Arizona
Poinsettia	B Y U	vs.	California
Hawaii	Fresno St.	vs.	Houston
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Bowling Green *	vs.	Temple
Meineke Car Care	Boston College	vs.	Rutgers
Emerald	Oregon State	vs.	Florida State
Music City	Georgia	vs.	North Carolina
Independence	South Carolina	vs.	Kansas State
Eagle Bank	Duke	vs.	Notre Dame *
Champs Sports	Miami-Fl	vs.	Northwestern
Humanitarian	Idaho	vs.	Northern Illinois *
Holiday	Oklahoma	vs.	Oregon
Armed Forces	S M U	vs.	Air Force
Sun	Southern Cal	vs.	Missouri
Texas	Texas A&M	vs.	NAVY
Insight.com	Texas Tech	vs.	Minnesota
Chick-fil-A	Auburn	vs.	Va. Tech
Outback	Tennessee	vs.	Penn State
Capital One	Wisconsin	vs.	Ole Miss
Gator	Cincinnati	vs.	Ga. Tech
Rose	Stanford	vs.	OHIO STATE
Sugar	Florida	vs.	Boise State
International	West Virginia	vs.	Ohio U
Cotton	Nebraska	vs.	L S U
Papajohns.com	South Florida	vs.	Kentucky
Liberty	Arkansas	vs.	East Carolina
Alamo	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Michigan St.
Fiesta	Iowa	vs.	T C U
Orange	Clemson	vs.	Pittsburgh
G M A C	Middle Tennessee *	vs.	Central Mich.
National Championship	Alabama	vs.	Texas

 

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 10-15, 2009

Can This Week Be As Wacky As Last Week?

 

It happens every year; it usually happens in November, so it shouldn’t have come as a surprise.  After two thirds of the college season was in the books, teams all of a sudden started acting inconsistently.  Teams that couldn’t catch a break started catching breaks.  Teams that caught all the breaks stopped catching them.

 

Teams that had been given up for dead showed a new life.  Teams that consistently did something that made themselves very predictable (to the wagering public) did something completely different.

 

Iowa’s loss was coming.  You cannot win games every week by pulling them out in the final minutes.  When quarterback Ricky Stanzi went down with an injury, there was going to be no last minute heroics this time.

 

All of a sudden, Ron Zook’s Illinois team looks like they were supposed to look like in August.  Stranger things have happened, but it isn’t impossible that they could finish 6-6 after starting 1-6.  It isn’t probable either, because the Illini still have to play Cincinnati and Fresno State outside the Big 10 as well as Northwestern this week to close out conference play.

 

The two really consistent teams are the two BCS bowl-crashing wannabes.  TCU and Boise State both look invincible at the moment.  Both have tricky games this week.  The Horned Frogs get a one-loss Utah team, while Boise has to worry with in-state rival and bowl eligible Idaho.

 

NCAA Top 25 For November 9, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	136.5	9	0
2	Florida	132.9	9	0
3	Alabama	129.2	8	0
4	Oklahoma	127.5	5	4
5	T C U	123.8	9	0
6	Southern Cal	120.4	7	2
7	Boise St.	119.9	9	0
8	Oregon	119.7	7	2
9	Georgia Tech	118.9	9	1
10	Ohio St.	118.4	8	2
11	Va. Tech	118.0	6	3
12	Okla. St.	117.0	7	2
13	Nebraska	116.9	6	3
14	Penn St.	116.8	8	2
15	Miami (Fla.)	116.7	7	2
16	Cincinnati	115.5	9	0
17	Pittsburgh	115.5	8	1
18	Stanford	115.0	6	3
19	Iowa	114.6	9	1
20	Clemson	114.2	6	3
21	Ole Miss	114.1	6	3
22	Tennessee	113.9	5	4
23	L  S  U	113.6	7	2
24	Arkansas	113.5	5	4
25	California	112.6	6	3
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	4-2	6-3	114.2
Boston College	3-2	6-3	110.8
Florida State	2-4	4-5	108.2
Wake Forest	2-4	4-6	105.1
North Carolina State	1-4	4-5	103.3
Maryland	1-4	2-7	91.3
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Georgia Tech	6-1	9-1	118.9
Virginia Tech	3-2	6-3	118.0
Miami-FL	4-2	7-2	116.7
North Carolina	2-3	6-3	109.0
Duke	3-2	5-4	101.8
Virginia	2-3	3-6	94.7

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	5-0	9-0	115.5
Pittsburgh	5-0	8-1	115.5
South Florida	2-2	6-2	105.3
West Virginia	3-1	7-2	104.2
Connecticut	1-4	4-5	103.1
Rutgers	1-2	6-2	101.8
Syracuse	0-4	3-6	92.2
Louisville	0-4	3-6	92.1

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	5-1	8-2	118.4
Penn State	4-2	8-2	116.8
Iowa	5-1	9-1	114.6
Wisconsin	4-2	7-2	105.1
Michigan State	3-3	5-5	103.9
Minnesota	3-4	5-5	97.9
Northwestern	3-3	6-4	97.7
Michigan	1-5	5-5	97.3
Purdue	3-3	4-6	97.0
Illinois	2-5	3-6	96.2
Indiana	1-5	4-6	91.4

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	3-2	6-3	116.9
Kansas	1-4	5-4	104.7
Missouri	1-4	5-4	102.8
Kansas State	4-2	6-4	100.4
Colorado	2-3	3-6	95.7
Iowa State	2-4	5-5	94.5
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	6-0	9-0	136.5
Oklahoma	3-2	5-4	127.5
Oklahoma State	4-1	7-2	117.0
Texas Tech	3-2	6-3	112.3
Baylor	1-4	4-5	101.6
Texas A&M	2-3	5-4	99.1

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Mississippi	3-2	5-4	100.7
East Carolina	4-1	5-4	99.8
Marshall	3-2	5-4	95.7
Central Florida	3-2	5-4	95.3
U A B	3-2	4-5	90.3
Memphis	1-4	2-7	83.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	4-1	8-1	106.2
Tulsa	2-3	4-5	96.9
U T E P	2-3	3-6	90.1
S M U	4-1	5-4	90.0
Rice	0-5	0-9	76.7
Tulane	1-4	3-6	75.5

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-3	107.7
Navy		7-3	102.6
Army		3-6	82.2

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	5-0	7-2	99.2
Buffalo	1-4	3-6	91.7
Ohio U	4-1	6-3	90.1
Bowling Green	3-2	4-5	89.3
Kent St.	4-2	5-5	87.4
Akron	1-4	2-7	84.0
Miami (O)	1-5	1-9	79.2
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	5-0	7-2	106.7
Northern Illinois	4-1	6-3	96.9
Western Michigan	3-3	4-6	87.5
Toledo	2-3	4-5	86.7
Ball State	1-4	1-8	81.3
Eastern Michigan	0-5	0-9	76.2

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	5-0	9-0	123.8
B Y U	4-1	7-2	112.2
Utah	5-0	8-1	106.5
Air Force	4-2	6-4	100.0
Colo. State	0-6	3-7	88.5
UNLV	2-4	4-6	88.1
S. D. State	2-3	4-5	87.8
Wyoming	2-3	4-5	86.7
New Mexico	0-5	0-9	74.5

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Cal	4-2	7-2	120.4
Oregon	5-1	7-2	119.7
Stanford	5-2	6-3	115.0
California	3-3	6-3	112.6
Arizona	4-1	6-2	111.9
Oregon St.	4-2	6-3	108.1
U C L A	1-5	4-5	103.5
Arizona St.	2-4	4-5	102.8
Washington	2-4	3-6	98.7
Wash. St.	0-6	1-8	75.8

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	7-0	9-0	132.9
Tennessee	2-3	5-4	113.9
Georgia	3-3	5-4	109.2
South Carolina	3-4	6-4	106.7
Kentucky	1-4	5-4	102.9
Vanderbilt	0-6	2-8	93.2
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	6-0	9-0	129.2
Ole Miss	2-3	6-3	114.1
L S U	4-2	7-2	113.6
Arkansas	2-4	5-4	113.5
Auburn	3-3	7-3	105.3
Mississippi State	2-3	4-5	101.6

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	6-0	7-2	99.1
Middle Tennessee	4-1	6-3	91.8
Louisiana-Monroe	4-1	5-4	90.6
Arkansas State	1-3	2-6	89.7
U. of Louisiana	3-2	5-4	83.8
Florida Atlantic	2-2	2-6	83.3
Florida International	2-4	2-7	82.8
North Texas	1-5	2-7	76.2
Western Kentucky	0-5	0-9	72.0

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	4-0	9-0	119.9
Nevada	5-0	6-3	103.9
Fresno State	5-1	6-3	102.4
Louisiana Tech	2-4	3-6	95.7
Utah State	1-4	2-7	91.2
Idaho	4-2	7-3	90.6
Hawaii	1-5	3-6	84.8
San Jose State	0-4	1-7	82.8
New Mexico State	1-3	3-6	71.8

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 10		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
BUFFALO	Ohio U	4.3	28-24	-2
Wednesday, November 11		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
CENTRAL MICHIGAN	Toledo	23.0	40-17	19
Thursday, November 5		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Bowling Green	MIAMI (O)	7.6	31-23	7
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Ball State	18.8	38-19	21
South Florida	RUTGERS	0.1	24-24 ot	0
Friday, November 6		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Temple	AKRON	12.5	27-14	9
CINCINNATI	West Virginia	14.3	35-21	14
Saturday, November 7		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Boston College	VIRGINIA	13.1	27-14	8
ILLINOIS	Northwestern	1.5	21-19	2
LOUISVILLE	Syracuse	2.9	20-17	5
OHIO STATE	Iowa	7.3	21-14	7
WISCONSIN	Michigan	10.8	41-30	14
PENN STATE	Indiana	28.9	41-12	21
Michigan State	PURDUE	3.9	31-27	2
Florida State	WAKE FOREST	0.1	20-20 ot	0
Clemson	NORTH CAROLINA ST.	7.9	31-23	12
Georgia Tech	DUKE	14.4	38-24	13
Kentucky	VANDERBILT	7.2	20-13	8
Texas	BAYLOR	32.2	45-13	23
Virginia Tech	MARYLAND	24.0	34-10	19
Western Michigan	EASTERN MICHIGAN	8.8	26-17	10
OLE MISS	Tennessee	3.2	27-24	2
B y u	NEW MEXICO	35.0	42-7	28
Nebraska	KANSAS	9.2	21-12	5
U  a  b	MEMPHIS	3.9	31-27	4
IOWA STATE	Colorado	1.8	26-24	7
U  c  l  a	WASHINGTON ST.	24.7	38-13	14
BOISE STATE	Idaho	32.3	45-13	25
S M U	U t e p	2.9	35-34	11
PITTSBURGH	Notre Dame	10.8	28-17	10
SOUTHERN CAL	Stanford	8.4	28-20	8
CALIFORNIA	Arizona	3.7	28-24	0
OREGON	Arizona State	20.4	34-14	20
KANSAS STATE	Missouri	0.6	24-23	2
OKLAHOMA	Texas A&M	31.4	38-7	14
UTAH STATE	San Jose St.	11.1	35-24	8
NEVADA	Fresno State	4.5	35-30	-1
RICE	Tulane	3.7	35-31	-1
AIR FORCE	U n l v	14.9	31-16	16
OREGON STATE	Washington	12.4	33-21	12
Florida	SOUTH CAROLINA	23.2	35-13	17
Alabama	MISSISSIPPI STATE	24.6	35-10	14
Southern Miss	MARSHALL	2.0	26-24	-2
Miami-Fl	NORTH CAROLINA	4.7	28-23	4
OKLAHOMA STATE	Texas Tech	7.7	40-32	4
T C U	Utah	20.3	30-10	16
GEORGIA	Auburn	6.9	31-24	2
Houston	CENTRAL FLORIDA	7.9	38-30	8
L S U	Louisiana Tech	20.6	31-10	22
SAN DIEGO STATE	Wyoming	4.3	24-20	4
HAWAII	New Mexico State	17.0	45-28	13
FLORIDA ATLANTIC	Arkansas St.	9.8	31-21	0
UL-MONROE	Western Ky	21.3	38-17	24
ARKANSAS	Troy	17.9	45-27	12
FLA. INT’L	North Texas	9.6	34-24	7
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	UL-Lafayette	11.0	35-24	12
Sunday, November 15		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
TULSA	East Carolina	0.1	27-27 ot	1

 

Bowl Projections

CAPS/Bold = Excepted Bid

Italics = at-large invitation

 

Bowl	Conference		Conference	Team	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4	vs.	WAC #3	San Diego St.	Nevada
St. Petersburg	Big East #6	vs.	C-USA #5	Middle Tennessee	Southern Miss
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1	vs.	C-USA #4	Troy	East Carolina
Las Vegas	MWC #1	vs.	Pac 10 #4 or 5	B Y U	Stanford
Poinsettia	MWC #2	vs.	Pac 10 #6	Utah	U C L A
Hawaii	WAC	vs.	C-USA	Fresno St.	Marshall
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #7	vs.	MAC #1 or 2	Minnesota	Northern Illinois
Meineke Car Care	ACC #5-6-7	vs.	Big East #3	Boston Coll	Rutgers
Emerald	Pac 10 #4 or 5	vs.	ACC #5-6-7	Oregon State	Wake Forest
Music City	SEC #6 or 7	vs.	ACC #5-6-7	Georgia	North Carolina
Independence	SEC #8	vs.	Big 12 #7	South Carolina	Missouri
Eagle Bank	ACC #8	vs.	Army/C-USA	Ohio U	Central Florida
Champs Sports	ACC #4	vs.	Big 10 #5	Va. Tech	Northwestern
Humanitarian	WAC #1	vs.	MWC	Idaho	Bowling Green
Holiday	Big 12 #3	vs.	Pac 10 #2	Nebraska	Arizona
Armed Forces	C-USA #3	vs.	MWC #3	S M U	Air Force
Sun	Pac 10 #3	vs.	B E #2 or B12 #5	California	Oklahoma
Texas	Big 12 #8	vs.	Navy or C-USA	Texas A&M	NAVY
Insight.com	Big 12 #6	vs.	Big 10 #6	Kansas State	Michigan State
Chick-fil-A	SEC #5	vs.	ACC #2	Ole Miss	Miami-Fl
Outback	SEC #3 or 4	vs.	Big 10 #3	Tennessee	Penn State
Capital One	Big 10 #2	vs.	SEC #2	Iowa	L S U
Gator	B E #2 or B12 #5	vs.	ACC #3	Cincinnati	Ga. Tech
Rose	BCS Pac10	vs.	BCS Big 10	Oregon	Ohio State
Sugar	BCS SEC	vs.	BCS At-Large	Alabama	Boise State
International	Big East #5	vs.	MAC #3	West Va.	Temple
Cotton	Big 12 #2	vs.	SEC #3 or 4	Oklahoma State	Auburn
Papajohns.com	Big East #4	vs.	SEC #9	S. Florida	Kentucky
Liberty	SEC #6 or 7	vs.	C-USA #1	Arkansas	Houston
Alamo	Big 10 #4	vs.	Big 12 #4	Wisconsin	Texas Tech
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	vs.	BCS At-Large	Southern Cal	T C U
Orange	BCS ACC	vs.	BCS At-Large	Clemson	Pittsburgh
G M A C	ACC #9	vs.	MAC	Notre Dame	Central Michigan
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	vs.	*** BCS #2 ***	Florida	Texas

 

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 3-7, 2009

Several Big Games To Highlight Weekend

PiRate Ratings Go 9-2 Against Spread

 

Several key games dot the college football schedule this week, and because so many could go either way, we think it’s time to start paring the number of college games we select.  After a 9-2 against the spread, the PiRates are counting their booty.  Our two week record against the spread is 17-3-1, and our percentage for the season is now 63.5% (54-31-2).  We will be playing with Vegas’s money the rest of the year, so we will guarantee ourselves a winning season and play fewer games from here on out, unless we see too many easy ones to pass up.

 

That 9-2 record was really nice, but when we see just how close we came to going 11-0, it is almost a tad disappointing.  We had Indiana +17, and for so long that game looked good until Iowa scored four quick touchdowns.  The other loss was on a 10-point teaser, and two of the three games had already won when a late Brett Favre touchdown pass moved the total score from 57 to 64 points (The 10-point teaser line was 57 ½).  We won with Minnesota +3 vs. Green Bay, Georgia Tech -11 vs. Vanderbilt, Illinois +7 vs. Michigan, Louisville -165 money line vs. Arkansas St., Houston -3 vs. Buffalo, Baltimore -3 ½ vs. Denver, North Carolina +16 ½ vs. Va. Tech, and three teasers.

 

NCAA Top 25 For October 26, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	136.3	8	0
2	Florida	133.4	8	0
3	Oklahoma	129.8	5	3
4	Alabama	128.9	7	0
5	Oregon	121.9	7	1
6	T C U	121.8	8	0
7	Southern Cal	120.9	6	2
8	Boise St.	119.7	8	0
9	Georgia Tech	119.2	8	1
10	Penn St.	118.9	8	1
11	Iowa	117.9	9	0
12	Va. Tech	117.9	5	3
13	Ohio St.	116.4	7	2
14	Okla. St.	116.0	6	2
15	California	115.8	6	2
16	Cincinnati	115.3	8	0
17	Pittsburgh	115.3	7	1
18	Nebraska	115.1	5	3
19	Ole Miss	114.1	5	3
20	L  S  U	113.9	7	1
21	Miami (Fla.)	113.7	6	2
22	Tennessee	113.6	4	4
23	Arkansas	112.8	4	4
24	Clemson	112.7	5	3
25	Stanford	112.3	5	3
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
Even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	3-2	5-3	112.7
Boston College	3-2	6-3	110.8
Florida State	2-3	4-4	109.7
Wake Forest	2-3	4-5	104.8
North Carolina State	0-4	3-5	103.2
Maryland	1-3	2-6	91.4
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Georgia Tech	5-1	8-1	119.2
Virginia Tech	3-2	5-3	117.9
Miami-FL	3-2	6-2	113.7
North Carolina	1-3	5-3	108.3
Duke	3-1	5-3	102.5
Virginia	2-2	3-5	98.2

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	4-0	8-0	115.3
Pittsburgh	4-0	7-1	115.3
South Florida	2-2	6-2	105.3
West Virginia	2-1	6-2	104.1
Connecticut	1-3	4-4	103.6
Rutgers	1-2	6-2	101.8
Syracuse	0-3	3-5	92.4
Louisville	0-3	3-5	92.4

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Penn State	4-1	8-1	118.9
Iowa	5-0	9-0	117.9
Ohio State	4-1	7-2	116.4
Wisconsin	3-2	6-2	105.0
Michigan State	3-3	4-5	102.6
Minnesota	3-3	5-4	100.1
Michigan	1-4	5-4	98.3
Purdue	2-3	3-6	95.6
Northwestern	2-3	5-4	94.9
Illinois	1-5	2-6	94.0
Indiana	1-4	4-5	91.5

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	2-2	5-3	115.1
Kansas	1-3	5-3	105.9
Missouri	1-3	5-3	104.9
Kansas State	3-2	5-4	98.9
Iowa State	2-3	5-4	95.5
Colorado	1-3	2-6	95.0
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	5-0	8-0	136.3
Oklahoma	3-1	5-3	129.8
Oklahoma State	3-1	6-2	116.0
Texas Tech	3-2	6-3	112.3
Texas A&M	2-2	5-3	99.8
Baylor	0-4	3-5	99.0

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team			Conf.	Overall		Rating
Southern Mississippi			3-2	5-4		100.7
East Carolina			4-1	5-3		99.9
Marshall			3-2	5-4		95.7
Central Florida			3-2	5-3		95.5
U A B			3-2	3-5		88.9
Memphis			1-4	2-6		84.0
West Division
Team			Conf.	Overall		Rating
Houston			3-1	7-1		106.0
Tulsa			2-2	4-4		97.1
U T E P			2-2	3-5		91.8
S M U			3-1	4-4		90.3
Rice			0-4	0-8		76.4
Tulane			0-4	2-6		73.8
Independents
Team		Overall			Rating
Notre Dame		6-2			109.4
Navy		6-3			100.6
Army		3-5			82.7

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	4-0	6-2	100.2
Buffalo	1-3	3-5	92.4
Ohio U	4-1	6-3	90.1
Kent St.	4-1	5-4	88.9
Bowling Green	2-2	3-5	88.6
Akron	0-4	1-7	82.5
Miami (O)	1-4	1-8	77.4
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	5-0	7-2	106.7
Northern Illinois	3-1	5-3	94.4
Western Michigan	3-3	4-5	88.4
Toledo	2-3	4-5	86.7
Ball State	1-4	1-8	81.3
Eastern Michigan	0-4	0-8	79.2

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	4-0	8-0	121.8
B Y U	3-1	6-2	109.8
Utah	4-0	7-1	106.3
Air Force	4-2	5-4	99.5
S. D. State	2-2	4-4	89.8
Colo. State	0-5	3-6	89.8
Wyoming	2-2	4-4	89.1
UNLV	1-4	3-6	86.8
New Mexico	0-4	0-8	74.7

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	5-0	7-1	121.9
Southern Cal	3-2	6-2	120.9
California	3-2	6-2	115.8
Stanford	4-2	5-3	112.3
Arizona	3-1	5-2	111.4
Oregon St.	3-2	5-3	105.4
U C L A	0-5	3-5	103.5
Arizona St.	2-3	4-4	102.8
Washington	2-3	3-5	98.7
Wash. St.	0-5	1-7	76.3

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	6-0	8-0	133.4
Tennessee	2-3	4-4	113.6
Georgia	3-3	4-4	109.2
South Carolina	3-3	6-3	107.6
Kentucky	1-4	4-4	102.9
Vanderbilt	0-5	2-7	92.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	5-0	8-0	128.9
Ole Miss	2-3	5-3	114.1
L S U	4-1	7-1	113.9
Arkansas	1-4	4-4	112.8
Auburn	3-3	6-3	105.3
Mississippi State	2-3	4-5	101.6

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	5-0	6-2	99.1
Arkansas State	1-2	2-5	92.3
Middle Tennessee	3-1	5-3	89.7
Louisiana-Monroe	3-0	3-4	88.1
Florida International	2-3	2-6	84.9
Florida Atlantic	2-2	2-5	84.7
Louisiana	2-2	4-4	81.2
North Texas	1-4	2-6	78.7
Western Kentucky	0-4	0-8	71.7

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	3-0	8-0	119.7
Fresno State	4-1	5-3	102.4
Nevada	4-0	5-3	100.4
Louisiana Tech	2-3	3-5	95.9
Utah State	1-3	2-6	93.7
Idaho	4-1	7-2	90.6
San Jose State	0-3	1-6	86.3
Hawaii	0-5	2-6	82.0
New Mexico State	1-3	3-6	71.8

 

Reminder: Don’t use these ratings against the spread when you pick games.  We rely on several other factors when we pick games against the spread. For our weekly picks, go to www.piratings.webs.com and select “Picks vs. Vegas Line.”  We’re a great bargain at just $5 per week.   This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 3		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
BUFFALO	Bowling Green	6.5	28-21	0
Thursday, November 5		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Eastern Michigan	18.2	35-17	23
TEMPLE	Miami-OH	25.5	33-7	19
Virginia Tech	EAST CAROLINA	15.0	27-12	10
Friday, November 6		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Boise State	LOUISIANA TECH	20.5	34-13	22
Saturday, November 7		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
MICHIGAN STATE	Western Michigan	16.7	34-17	14
CINCINNATI	Connecticut	14.7	24-9	18
PITTSBURGH	Syracuse	25.9	35-9	24
IOWA	Northwestern	26.2	36-10	23
MINNESOTA	Illinois	9.3	35-26	11
WEST VIRGINIA	Louisville	14.7	35-20	15
N. C. STATE	Maryland	14.8	35-20	7
GEORGIA TECH	Wake Forest	17.4	41-24	17
NORTH CAROLINA	Duke	7.8	31-23	7
Wisconsin	INDIANA	10.5	34-23	11
ARKANSAS	South Carolina	8.2	35-27	6
Oklahoma State	IOWA STATE	17.8	35-17	6
MISSOURI	Baylor	8.9	21-12	11
FLORIDA	Vanderbilt	44.0	47-3	37
Brigham Young	WYOMING	17.7	31-13	11
NOTRE DAME	Navy	12.3	38-26	9
S M U	Rice	16.6	34-17	24
U t e p	TULANE	15.3	42-27	6
ALABAMA	L s u	18.2	28-10	9
TEXAS	Central Florida	44.8	52-7	32
Kent State	AKRON	3.9	24-20	6
AIR FORCE	Army	19.8	30-10	21
Kansas	KANSAS STATE	5.0	27-22	1
Oklahoma	NEBRASKA	11.7	24-12	2
PENN STATE	Ohio State	5.5	16-10	5
T c u	SAN DIEGO STATE	29.0	42-13	25
Fresno State	IDAHO	8.8	30-21	6
UTAH	New Mexico	34.6	42-7	33
ARIZONA	Washington State	38.3	55-17	27
CALIFORNIA	Oregon State	13.4	27-14	6
U C L A	Washington	7.8	35-27	4
Oregon	STANFORD	6.9	31-24	10
Texas A&M	COLORADO	1.8	28-26	7
MIAMI-FL	Virginia	18.7	33-14	14
TENNESSEE	Memphis	32.6	47-14	28
CLEMSON	Florida State	6.0	34-28	10
Houston	TULSA	5.9	37-31	8
Southern Cal	ARIZONA STATE	15.1	38-23	11
MICHIGAN	Purdue	5.7	30-24	6
Colorado State	U N L V	0.3	24-24 ot	0
Utah State	HAWAII	8.7	30-21	1
U A B	Florida Atlantic	6.7	30-23	5
UL-Monroe	NORTH TEXAS	6.7	34-27	5
Troy	WESTERN KENTUCKY	24.9	45-20	26
ARKANSAS STATE	UL-Lafayette	13.8	34-20	10
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Florida Int’l	7.8	24-16	12