The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 31, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 31, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:22 am

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Visitor

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Brown

Cornell

6.6

Buffalo

Bowling Green

4.0

Canisius

Quinnipiac

4.1

Detroit

Oakland

1.4

Green Bay

Northern Kentucky

-3.1

Iona

Siena

-0.9

Kent St.

Akron

0.4

Milwaukee

Wright St.

-7.0

Niagara

Marist

6.9

Pennsylvania

Harvard

-0.8

Princeton

Dartmouth

3.5

Rhode Island

VCU

1.2

Rider

Fairfield

6.2

Saint Peter’s

Manhattan

4.0

Yale

Columbia

17.3

 

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Northern Kentucky

 

Today’s PiRate Ratings

 

#

Team

PiRate

Conference

1

Kansas

121.4

Big 12

2

Duke

121.4

Atlantic Coast

3

Gonzaga

120.0

West Coast

4

Michigan St.

118.8

Big Ten

5

Baylor

117.8

Big 12

6

West Virginia

117.3

Big 12

7

Dayton

117.2

Atlantic 10

8

Arizona

116.6

Pac-12

9

Louisville

116.2

Atlantic Coast

10

Maryland

116.1

Big Ten

11

San Diego St.

115.8

Mountain West

12

Seton Hall

115.5

Big East

13

Ohio St.

115.4

Big Ten

14

Iowa

114.4

Big Ten

15

Butler

114.2

Big East

16

Villanova

114.1

Big East

17

Penn St.

113.9

Big Ten

18

Florida St.

113.9

Atlantic Coast

19

Oregon

113.8

Pac-12

20

BYU

113.5

West Coast

21

Texas Tech

113.1

Big 12

22

Kentucky

113.1

Southeastern

23

Illinois

113.0

Big Ten

24

Marquette

113.0

Big East

25

LSU

112.9

Southeastern

26

Colorado

112.9

Pac-12

27

Michigan

112.7

Big Ten

28

Purdue

112.5

Big Ten

29

Houston

112.5

American Athletic

30

Rutgers

112.5

Big Ten

31

Auburn

112.5

Southeastern

32

Arkansas

112.5

Southeastern

33

Creighton

112.2

Big East

34

Florida

111.9

Southeastern

35

Wisconsin

111.7

Big Ten

36

Wichita St.

111.4

American Athletic

37

Indiana

111.4

Big Ten

38

Alabama

111.3

Southeastern

39

Mississippi St.

111.2

Southeastern

40

Minnesota

111.2

Big Ten

41

Saint Mary’s

111.1

West Coast

42

VCU

111.1

Atlantic 10

43

Cincinnati

110.9

American Athletic

44

Utah St.

110.5

Mountain West

45

Stanford

110.1

Pac-12

46

Washington

110.1

Pac-12

47

Oklahoma

109.9

Big 12

48

Memphis

109.9

American Athletic

49

Georgetown

109.6

Big East

50

USC

109.4

Pac-12

51

Northern Iowa

109.4

Missouri Valley

52

North Carolina St.

109.4

Atlantic Coast

53

Virginia

109.3

Atlantic Coast

54

Syracuse

109.3

Atlantic Coast

55

Rhode Island

109.3

Atlantic 10

56

Notre Dame

109.1

Atlantic Coast

57

Tennessee

108.9

Southeastern

58

Xavier

108.8

Big East

59

Yale

108.7

Ivy

60

Iowa St.

108.4

Big 12

61

Louisiana Tech

108.2

Conference USA

62

North Carolina

108.1

Atlantic Coast

63

Arizona St.

108.0

Pac-12

64

UNC Greensboro

107.9

Southern

65

TCU

107.8

Big 12

66

Texas

107.8

Big 12

67

Providence

107.7

Big East

68

Virginia Tech

107.7

Atlantic Coast

69

Richmond

107.5

Atlantic 10

70

St. John’s

107.5

Big East

71

East Tennessee St.

107.5

Southern

72

Vermont

107.4

America East

73

Oklahoma St.

107.4

Big 12

74

Connecticut

107.3

American Athletic

75

Akron

107.3

Mid-American

76

DePaul

107.2

Big East

77

Georgia Tech

107.1

Atlantic Coast

78

Pittsburgh

107.0

Atlantic Coast

79

Clemson

107.0

Atlantic Coast

80

Liberty

106.8

Atlantic Sun

81

SMU

106.8

American Athletic

82

Tulsa

106.8

American Athletic

83

South Carolina

106.7

Southeastern

84

Kansas St.

106.6

Big 12

85

Furman

106.5

Southern

86

North Texas

106.5

Conference USA

87

Missouri

106.5

Southeastern

88

Oregon St.

106.5

Pac-12

89

Boise St.

106.4

Mountain West

90

San Francisco

106.2

West Coast

91

Nevada

106.2

Mountain West

92

Georgia

106.0

Southeastern

93

Loyola (Chi.)

105.7

Missouri Valley

94

Davidson

105.6

Atlantic 10

95

Duquesne

105.6

Atlantic 10

96

Belmont

105.5

Ohio Valley

97

Temple

105.4

American Athletic

98

Saint Louis

105.3

Atlantic 10

99

Harvard

105.2

Ivy

100

Georgia St.

105.1

Sun Belt

101

Bradley

104.9

Missouri Valley

102

New Mexico St.

104.7

Western Athletic

103

Kent St.

104.7

Mid-American

104

Colorado St.

104.6

Mountain West

105

Utah

104.6

Pac-12

106

Mississippi

104.5

Southeastern

107

Miami (Fla.)

104.5

Atlantic Coast

108

Wright St.

104.4

Horizon

109

Western Kentucky

104.3

Conference USA

110

Wake Forest

104.3

Atlantic Coast

111

Ball St.

104.1

Mid-American

112

Central Florida

103.9

American Athletic

113

Northern Colorado

103.9

Big Sky

114

UCLA

103.8

Pac-12

115

Northwestern

103.5

Big Ten

116

UC Irvine

103.4

Big West

117

Stephen F. Austin

103.3

Southland

118

UT Arlington

103.2

Sun Belt

119

Winthrop

103.2

Big South

120

Texas St.

103.1

Sun Belt

121

Nebraska

103.1

Big Ten

122

Toledo

103.0

Mid-American

123

South Dakota St.

102.9

Summit

124

Washington St.

102.8

Pac-12

125

St. Bonaventure

102.8

Atlantic 10

126

South Florida

102.8

American Athletic

127

UNLV

102.8

Mountain West

128

Indiana St.

102.6

Missouri Valley

129

Murray St.

102.5

Ohio Valley

130

Colgate

102.4

Patriot

131

Northern Kentucky

102.3

Horizon

132

Little Rock

102.3

Sun Belt

133

Northeastern

102.3

Colonial Athletic

134

New Mexico

102.2

Mountain West

135

Stony Brook

102.1

America East

136

Hofstra

101.9

Colonial Athletic

137

Buffalo

101.9

Mid-American

138

Wofford

101.9

Southern

139

Charleston

101.8

Colonial Athletic

140

Oral Roberts

101.8

Summit

141

Georgia Southern

101.8

Sun Belt

142

Texas A&M

101.7

Southeastern

143

North Dakota St.

101.7

Summit

144

Santa Clara

101.7

West Coast

145

Southern Utah

101.5

Big Sky

146

Fresno St.

101.4

Mountain West

147

Penn

101.4

Ivy

148

Drake

101.3

Missouri Valley

149

Austin Peay

101.2

Ohio Valley

150

Marshall

101.0

Conference USA

151

Pacific

101.0

West Coast

152

Bowling Green

100.9

Mid-American

153

Pepperdine

100.8

West Coast

154

Charlotte

100.8

Conference USA

155

Towson

100.6

Colonial Athletic

156

Missouri St.

100.4

Missouri Valley

157

Boston College

100.4

Atlantic Coast

158

Eastern Washington

100.4

Big Sky

159

Chattanooga

100.2

Southern

160

Sam Houston St.

100.2

Southland

161

UTEP

100.2

Conference USA

162

William & Mary

100.2

Colonial Athletic

163

Southern Illinois

100.2

Missouri Valley

164

George Mason

100.0

Atlantic 10

165

Radford

100.0

Big South

166

Western Carolina

100.0

Southern

167

Valparaiso

99.9

Missouri Valley

168

Old Dominion

99.9

Conference USA

169

California

99.9

Pac-12

170

Appalachian St.

99.8

Sun Belt

171

Vanderbilt

99.8

Southeastern

172

Boston U

99.5

Patriot

173

South Dakota

99.5

Summit

174

South Alabama

99.5

Sun Belt

175

La Salle

99.4

Atlantic 10

176

Hawaii

99.3

Big West

177

Central Michigan

99.3

Mid-American

178

North Florida

99.3

Atlantic Sun

179

California Baptist

99.2

Western Athletic

180

Northern Illinois

99.2

Mid-American

181

Montana

99.2

Big Sky

182

Tulane

99.1

American Athletic

183

Florida Int’l.

99.0

Conference USA

184

UC Santa Barbara

98.9

Big West

185

UAB

98.7

Conference USA

186

Air Force

98.6

Mountain West

187

Coastal Carolina

98.6

Sun Belt

188

Massachusetts

98.6

Atlantic 10

189

Delaware

98.6

Colonial Athletic

190

Northern Arizona

98.4

Big Sky

191

Princeton

98.3

Ivy

192

Rider

98.2

Metro Atlantic

193

Lafayette

98.2

Patriot

194

UTSA

98.2

Conference USA

195

Florida Atlantic

98.2

Conference USA

196

Nicholls St.

98.1

Southland

197

Sacramento St.

98.0

Big Sky

198

George Washington

98.0

Atlantic 10

199

Dartmouth

97.8

Ivy

200

Siena

97.8

Metro Atlantic

201

Abilene Christian

97.7

Southland

202

Portland St.

97.6

Big Sky

203

Ohio

97.6

Mid-American

204

Sacred Heart

97.6

Northeast

205

Prairie View A&M

97.5

Southwestern Athl.

206

Seattle

97.4

Western Athletic

207

UC Riverside

97.3

Big West

208

Omaha

97.3

Summit

209

Mercer

97.2

Southern

210

Arkansas St.

97.2

Sun Belt

211

Monmouth

97.2

Metro Atlantic

212

Montana St.

97.0

Big Sky

213

Loyola Marymount

97.0

West Coast

214

Miami (O)

96.9

Mid-American

215

Brown

96.9

Ivy

216

St. Francis (PA)

96.9

Northeast

217

Illinois St.

96.9

Missouri Valley

218

Robert Morris

96.5

Northeast

219

San Diego

96.5

West Coast

220

Eastern Illinois

96.4

Ohio Valley

221

Missouri-KC

96.4

Western Athletic

222

American

96.4

Patriot

223

Cal St. Bakersfield

96.4

Western Athletic

224

Eastern Michigan

96.4

Mid-American

225

Navy

96.4

Patriot

226

Bryant

96.3

Northeast

227

McNeese St.

96.2

Southland

228

Green Bay

96.2

Horizon

229

Illinois Chicago

96.1

Horizon

230

Canisius

96.1

Metro Atlantic

231

Drexel

96.1

Colonial Athletic

232

Bucknell

96.1

Patriot

233

East Carolina

96.1

American Athletic

234

North Dakota

95.9

Summit

235

Albany

95.9

America East

236

Saint Peter’s

95.7

Metro Atlantic

237

Grand Canyon

95.7

Western Athletic

238

UC Davis

95.5

Big West

239

Long Island

95.5

Northeast

240

Western Michigan

95.4

Mid-American

241

Tennessee St.

95.3

Ohio Valley

242

Merrimack

95.3

Northeast

243

Gardner-Webb

95.2

Big South

244

Oakland

95.2

Horizon

245

Louisiana

95.2

Sun Belt

246

Jacksonville

95.2

Atlantic Sun

247

Rice

95.1

Conference USA

248

Youngstown St.

95.1

Horizon

249

Quinnipiac

95.0

Metro Atlantic

250

Fairfield

95.0

Metro Atlantic

251

Jacksonville St.

94.9

Ohio Valley

252

Norfolk St.

94.9

Mideastern Athletic

253

Texas Southern

94.9

Southwestern Athl.

254

Cal St. Northridge

94.7

Big West

255

Manhattan

94.7

Metro Atlantic

256

Weber St.

94.6

Big Sky

257

Saint Joseph’s

94.5

Atlantic 10

258

Columbia

94.4

Ivy

259

Milwaukee

94.4

Horizon

260

Mount St. Mary’s

94.4

Northeast

261

Cal St. Fullerton

94.3

Big West

262

Lipscomb

94.2

Atlantic Sun

263

Portland

94.2

West Coast

264

Fordham

94.1

Atlantic 10

265

Purdue Fort Wayne

94.0

Summit

266

Southern Miss.

94.0

Conference USA

267

Army

94.0

Patriot

268

Utah Valley

94.0

Western Athletic

269

UT Rio Grande Valley

93.9

Western Athletic

270

Iona

93.9

Metro Atlantic

271

Lamar

93.7

Southland

272

Hartford

93.6

America East

273

North Alabama

93.6

Atlantic Sun

274

Detroit

93.6

Horizon

275

VMI

93.5

Southern

276

New Hampshire

93.4

America East

277

Evansville

93.3

Missouri Valley

278

NJIT

93.3

Atlantic Sun

279

Cornell

93.3

Ivy

280

Campbell

93.2

Big South

281

Louisiana Monroe

93.2

Sun Belt

282

Troy

93.0

Sun Belt

283

UMass Lowell

93.0

America East

284

Middle Tennessee

93.0

Conference USA

285

UNC Asheville

92.8

Big South

286

Samford

92.8

Southern

287

Loyola (MD)

92.6

Patriot

288

Wyoming

92.5

Mountain West

289

James Madison

92.4

Colonial Athletic

290

Texas A&M CC

92.4

Southland

291

Bethune Cookman

92.3

Mideastern Athletic

292

Niagara

92.2

Metro Atlantic

293

North Carolina Central

92.2

Mideastern Athletic

294

Alcorn St.

92.2

Southwestern Athl.

295

Long Beach St.

92.1

Big West

296

San Jose St.

92.0

Mountain West

297

North Carolina A&T

91.9

Mideastern Athletic

298

Charleston Southern

91.9

Big South

299

UM Baltimore Co.

91.9

America East

300

Morehead St.

91.8

Ohio Valley

301

Idaho St.

91.8

Big Sky

302

Lehigh

91.6

Patriot

303

St. Francis (NY)

91.6

Northeast

304

Central Arkansas

91.5

Southland

305

Stetson

91.5

Atlantic Sun

306

UNC Wilmington

91.4

Colonial Athletic

307

Cleveland St.

91.2

Horizon

308

Eastern Kentucky

91.1

Ohio Valley

309

Fairleigh Dickinson

91.0

Northeast

310

Florida Gulf Coast

91.0

Atlantic Sun

311

Southern

90.8

Southwestern Athl.

312

Denver

90.4

Summit

313

Elon

90.4

Colonial Athletic

314

UT-Martin

90.4

Ohio Valley

315

Hampton

90.3

Big South

316

Morgan St.

90.3

Mideastern Athletic

317

Cal Poly

90.2

Big West

318

Idaho

90.1

Big Sky

319

Florida A&M

90.1

Mideastern Athletic

320

Citadel

90.1

Southern

321

USC Upstate

90.0

Big South

322

Grambling

89.9

Southwestern Athl.

323

Northwestern St.

89.8

Southland

324

New Orleans

89.8

Southland

325

Longwood

89.6

Big South

326

Jackson St.

89.3

Southwestern Athl.

327

IUPUI

89.3

Horizon

328

Wagner

89.0

Northeast

329

South Carolina St.

89.0

Mideastern Athletic

330

Western Illinois

88.9

Summit

331

Maine

88.9

America East

332

Coppin St.

88.7

Mideastern Athletic

333

Marist

88.3

Metro Atlantic

334

Presbyterian

88.2

Big South

335

Binghamton

88.1

America East

336

SE Missouri

88.1

Ohio Valley

337

SE Louisiana

87.8

Southland

338

Tennessee Tech

87.6

Ohio Valley

339

SIU Edwardsville

87.2

Ohio Valley

340

Alabama St.

86.9

Southwestern Athl.

341

Holy Cross

86.9

Patriot

342

Alabama A&M

86.6

Southwestern Athl.

343

High Point

86.1

Big South

344

Houston Baptist

84.4

Southland

345

Arkansas Pine Bluff

83.6

Southwestern Athl.

346

Incarnate Word

82.8

Southland

347

Howard

82.1

Mideastern Athletic

348

Kennesaw St.

81.8

Atlantic Sun

349

Central Connecticut

81.1

Northeast

350

MD Eastern Shore

80.5

Mideastern Athletic

351

Delaware St.

79.8

Mideastern Athletic

352

Mississippi Valley St.

78.6

Southwestern Athl.

353

Chicago St.

76.7

Western Athletic

 

Alphabetical

 

#

Team

PiRate

Conf.

1

Abilene Christian

97.7

Southland

2

Air Force

98.6

Mountain West

3

Akron

107.3

Mid-American

4

Alabama

111.3

Southeastern

5

Alabama A&M

86.6

Southwestern Athl.

6

Alabama St.

86.9

Southwestern Athl.

7

Albany

95.9

America East

8

Alcorn St.

92.2

Southwestern Athl.

9

American

96.4

Patriot

10

Appalachian St.

99.8

Sun Belt

11

Arizona

116.6

Pac-12

12

Arizona St.

108.0

Pac-12

13

Arkansas

112.5

Southeastern

14

Arkansas Pine Bluff

83.6

Southwestern Athl.

15

Arkansas St.

97.2

Sun Belt

16

Army

94.0

Patriot

17

Auburn

112.5

Southeastern

18

Austin Peay

101.2

Ohio Valley

19

Ball St.

104.1

Mid-American

20

Baylor

117.8

Big 12

21

Belmont

105.5

Ohio Valley

22

Bethune Cookman

92.3

Mideastern Athletic

23

Binghamton

88.1

America East

24

Boise St.

106.4

Mountain West

25

Boston College

100.4

Atlantic Coast

26

Boston U

99.5

Patriot

27

Bowling Green

100.9

Mid-American

28

Bradley

104.9

Missouri Valley

29

Brown

96.9

Ivy

30

Bryant

96.3

Northeast

31

Bucknell

96.1

Patriot

32

Buffalo

101.9

Mid-American

33

Butler

114.2

Big East

34

BYU

113.5

West Coast

35

Cal Poly

90.2

Big West

36

Cal St. Bakersfield

96.4

Western Athletic

37

Cal St. Fullerton

94.3

Big West

38

Cal St. Northridge

94.7

Big West

39

California

99.9

Pac-12

40

California Baptist

99.2

Western Athletic

41

Campbell

93.2

Big South

42

Canisius

96.1

Metro Atlantic

43

Central Arkansas

91.5

Southland

44

Central Connecticut

81.1

Northeast

45

Central Florida

103.9

American Athletic

46

Central Michigan

99.3

Mid-American

47

Charleston

101.8

Colonial Athletic

48

Charleston Southern

91.9

Big South

49

Charlotte

100.8

Conference USA

50

Chattanooga

100.2

Southern

51

Chicago St.

76.7

Western Athletic

52

Cincinnati

110.9

American Athletic

53

Citadel

90.1

Southern

54

Clemson

107.0

Atlantic Coast

55

Cleveland St.

91.2

Horizon

56

Coastal Carolina

98.6

Sun Belt

57

Colgate

102.4

Patriot

58

Colorado

112.9

Pac-12

59

Colorado St.

104.6

Mountain West

60

Columbia

94.4

Ivy

61

Connecticut

107.3

American Athletic

62

Coppin St.

88.7

Mideastern Athletic

63

Cornell

93.3

Ivy

64

Creighton

112.2

Big East

65

Dartmouth

97.8

Ivy

66

Davidson

105.6

Atlantic 10

67

Dayton

117.2

Atlantic 10

68

Delaware

98.6

Colonial Athletic

69

Delaware St.

79.8

Mideastern Athletic

70

Denver

90.4

Summit

71

DePaul

107.2

Big East

72

Detroit

93.6

Horizon

73

Drake

101.3

Missouri Valley

74

Drexel

96.1

Colonial Athletic

75

Duke

121.4

Atlantic Coast

76

Duquesne

105.6

Atlantic 10

77

East Carolina

96.1

American Athletic

78

East Tennessee St.

107.5

Southern

79

Eastern Illinois

96.4

Ohio Valley

80

Eastern Kentucky

91.1

Ohio Valley

81

Eastern Michigan

96.4

Mid-American

82

Eastern Washington

100.4

Big Sky

83

Elon

90.4

Colonial Athletic

84

Evansville

93.3

Missouri Valley

85

Fairfield

95.0

Metro Atlantic

86

Fairleigh Dickinson

91.0

Northeast

87

Florida

111.9

Southeastern

88

Florida A&M

90.1

Mideastern Athletic

89

Florida Atlantic

98.2

Conference USA

90

Florida Gulf Coast

91.0

Atlantic Sun

91

Florida Int’l.

99.0

Conference USA

92

Florida St.

113.9

Atlantic Coast

93

Fordham

94.1

Atlantic 10

94

Fresno St.

101.4

Mountain West

95

Furman

106.5

Southern

96

Gardner-Webb

95.2

Big South

97

George Mason

100.0

Atlantic 10

98

George Washington

98.0

Atlantic 10

99

Georgetown

109.6

Big East

100

Georgia

106.0

Southeastern

101

Georgia Southern

101.8

Sun Belt

102

Georgia St.

105.1

Sun Belt

103

Georgia Tech

107.1

Atlantic Coast

104

Gonzaga

120.0

West Coast

105

Grambling

89.9

Southwestern Athl.

106

Grand Canyon

95.7

Western Athletic

107

Green Bay

96.2

Horizon

108

Hampton

90.3

Big South

109

Hartford

93.6

America East

110

Harvard

105.2

Ivy

111

Hawaii

99.3

Big West

112

High Point

86.1

Big South

113

Hofstra

101.9

Colonial Athletic

114

Holy Cross

86.9

Patriot

115

Houston

112.5

American Athletic

116

Houston Baptist

84.4

Southland

117

Howard

82.1

Mideastern Athletic

118

Idaho

90.1

Big Sky

119

Idaho St.

91.8

Big Sky

120

Illinois

113.0

Big Ten

121

Illinois Chicago

96.1

Horizon

122

Illinois St.

96.9

Missouri Valley

123

Incarnate Word

82.8

Southland

124

Indiana

111.4

Big Ten

125

Indiana St.

102.6

Missouri Valley

126

Iona

93.9

Metro Atlantic

127

Iowa

114.4

Big Ten

128

Iowa St.

108.4

Big 12

129

IUPUI

89.3

Horizon

130

Jackson St.

89.3

Southwestern Athl.

131

Jacksonville

95.2

Atlantic Sun

132

Jacksonville St.

94.9

Ohio Valley

133

James Madison

92.4

Colonial Athletic

134

Kansas

121.4

Big 12

135

Kansas St.

106.6

Big 12

136

Kennesaw St.

81.8

Atlantic Sun

137

Kent St.

104.7

Mid-American

138

Kentucky

113.1

Southeastern

139

La Salle

99.4

Atlantic 10

140

Lafayette

98.2

Patriot

141

Lamar

93.7

Southland

142

Lehigh

91.6

Patriot

143

Liberty

106.8

Atlantic Sun

144

Lipscomb

94.2

Atlantic Sun

145

Little Rock

102.3

Sun Belt

146

Long Beach St.

92.1

Big West

147

Long Island

95.5

Northeast

148

Longwood

89.6

Big South

149

Louisiana

95.2

Sun Belt

150

Louisiana Monroe

93.2

Sun Belt

151

Louisiana Tech

108.2

Conference USA

152

Louisville

116.2

Atlantic Coast

153

Loyola (Chi.)

105.7

Missouri Valley

154

Loyola Marymount

97.0

West Coast

155

Loyola (MD)

92.6

Patriot

156

LSU

112.9

Southeastern

157

Maine

88.9

America East

158

Manhattan

94.7

Metro Atlantic

159

Marist

88.3

Metro Atlantic

160

Marquette

113.0

Big East

161

Marshall

101.0

Conference USA

162

Maryland

116.1

Big Ten

163

Massachusetts

98.6

Atlantic 10

164

McNeese St.

96.2

Southland

165

MD Eastern Shore

80.5

Mideastern Athletic

166

Memphis

109.9

American Athletic

167

Mercer

97.2

Southern

168

Merrimack

95.3

Northeast

169

Miami (Fla.)

104.5

Atlantic Coast

170

Miami (O)

96.9

Mid-American

171

Michigan

112.7

Big Ten

172

Michigan St.

118.8

Big Ten

173

Middle Tennessee

93.0

Conference USA

174

Milwaukee

94.4

Horizon

175

Minnesota

111.2

Big Ten

176

Mississippi

104.5

Southeastern

177

Mississippi St.

111.2

Southeastern

178

Mississippi Valley St.

78.6

Southwestern Athl.

179

Missouri

106.5

Southeastern

180

Missouri-KC

96.4

Western Athletic

181

Missouri St.

100.4

Missouri Valley

182

Monmouth

97.2

Metro Atlantic

183

Montana

99.2

Big Sky

184

Montana St.

97.0

Big Sky

185

Morehead St.

91.8

Ohio Valley

186

Morgan St.

90.3

Mideastern Athletic

187

Mount St. Mary’s

94.4

Northeast

188

Murray St.

102.5

Ohio Valley

189

Navy

96.4

Patriot

190

Nebraska

103.1

Big Ten

191

Nevada

106.2

Mountain West

192

New Hampshire

93.4

America East

193

New Mexico

102.2

Mountain West

194

New Mexico St.

104.7

Western Athletic

195

New Orleans

89.8

Southland

196

Niagara

92.2

Metro Atlantic

197

Nicholls St.

98.1

Southland

198

NJIT

93.3

Atlantic Sun

199

Norfolk St.

94.9

Mideastern Athletic

200

North Alabama

93.6

Atlantic Sun

201

North Carolina

108.1

Atlantic Coast

202

North Carolina A&T

91.9

Mideastern Athletic

203

North Carolina Central

92.2

Mideastern Athletic

204

North Carolina St.

109.4

Atlantic Coast

205

North Dakota

95.9

Summit

206

North Dakota St.

101.7

Summit

207

North Florida

99.3

Atlantic Sun

208

North Texas

106.5

Conference USA

209

Northeastern

102.3

Colonial Athletic

210

Northern Arizona

98.4

Big Sky

211

Northern Colorado

103.9

Big Sky

212

Northern Illinois

99.2

Mid-American

213

Northern Iowa

109.4

Missouri Valley

214

Northern Kentucky

102.3

Horizon

215

Northwestern

103.5

Big Ten

216

Northwestern St.

89.8

Southland

217

Notre Dame

109.1

Atlantic Coast

218

Oakland

95.2

Horizon

219

Ohio

97.6

Mid-American

220

Ohio St.

115.4

Big Ten

221

Oklahoma

109.9

Big 12

222

Oklahoma St.

107.4

Big 12

223

Old Dominion

99.9

Conference USA

224

Omaha

97.3

Summit

225

Oral Roberts

101.8

Summit

226

Oregon

113.8

Pac-12

227

Oregon St.

106.5

Pac-12

228

Pacific

101.0

West Coast

229

Penn

101.4

Ivy

230

Penn St.

113.9

Big Ten

231

Pepperdine

100.8

West Coast

232

Pittsburgh

107.0

Atlantic Coast

233

Portland

94.2

West Coast

234

Portland St.

97.6

Big Sky

235

Prairie View A&M

97.5

Southwestern Athl.

236

Presbyterian

88.2

Big South

237

Princeton

98.3

Ivy

238

Providence

107.7

Big East

239

Purdue

112.5

Big Ten

240

Purdue Fort Wayne

94.0

Summit

241

Quinnipiac

95.0

Metro Atlantic

242

Radford

100.0

Big South

243

Rhode Island

109.3

Atlantic 10

244

Rice

95.1

Conference USA

245

Richmond

107.5

Atlantic 10

246

Rider

98.2

Metro Atlantic

247

Robert Morris

96.5

Northeast

248

Rutgers

112.5

Big Ten

249

Sacramento St.

98.0

Big Sky

250

Sacred Heart

97.6

Northeast

251

Saint Joseph’s

94.5

Atlantic 10

252

Saint Louis

105.3

Atlantic 10

253

Saint Mary’s

111.1

West Coast

254

Saint Peter’s

95.7

Metro Atlantic

255

Sam Houston St.

100.2

Southland

256

Samford

92.8

Southern

257

San Diego

96.5

West Coast

258

San Diego St.

115.8

Mountain West

259

San Francisco

106.2

West Coast

260

San Jose St.

92.0

Mountain West

261

Santa Clara

101.7

West Coast

262

SE Louisiana

87.8

Southland

263

SE Missouri

88.1

Ohio Valley

264

Seattle

97.4

Western Athletic

265

Seton Hall

115.5

Big East

266

Siena

97.8

Metro Atlantic

267

SIU Edwardsville

87.2

Ohio Valley

268

SMU

106.8

American Athletic

269

South Alabama

99.5

Sun Belt

270

South Carolina

106.7

Southeastern

271

South Carolina St.

89.0

Mideastern Athletic

272

South Dakota

99.5

Summit

273

South Dakota St.

102.9

Summit

274

South Florida

102.8

American Athletic

275

Southern

90.8

Southwestern Athl.

276

Southern Illinois

100.2

Missouri Valley

277

Southern Miss.

94.0

Conference USA

278

Southern Utah

101.5

Big Sky

279

St. Bonaventure

102.8

Atlantic 10

280

St. Francis (NY)

91.6

Northeast

281

St. Francis (PA)

96.9

Northeast

282

St. John’s

107.5

Big East

283

Stanford

110.1

Pac-12

284

Stephen F. Austin

103.3

Southland

285

Stetson

91.5

Atlantic Sun

286

Stony Brook

102.1

America East

287

Syracuse

109.3

Atlantic Coast

288

TCU

107.8

Big 12

289

Temple

105.4

American Athletic

290

Tennessee

108.9

Southeastern

291

Tennessee St.

95.3

Ohio Valley

292

Tennessee Tech

87.6

Ohio Valley

293

Texas

107.8

Big 12

294

Texas A&M

101.7

Southeastern

295

Texas A&M CC

92.4

Southland

296

Texas Southern

94.9

Southwestern Athl.

297

Texas St.

103.1

Sun Belt

298

Texas Tech

113.1

Big 12

299

Toledo

103.0

Mid-American

300

Towson

100.6

Colonial Athletic

301

Troy

93.0

Sun Belt

302

Tulane

99.1

American Athletic

303

Tulsa

106.8

American Athletic

304

UAB

98.7

Conference USA

305

UC Davis

95.5

Big West

306

UC Irvine

103.4

Big West

307

UC Riverside

97.3

Big West

308

UC Santa Barbara

98.9

Big West

309

UCLA

103.8

Pac-12

310

UM Baltimore Co.

91.9

America East

311

UMass Lowell

93.0

America East

312

UNC Asheville

92.8

Big South

313

UNC Greensboro

107.9

Southern

314

UNC Wilmington

91.4

Colonial Athletic

315

UNLV

102.8

Mountain West

316

USC

109.4

Pac-12

317

USC Upstate

90.0

Big South

318

UT Arlington

103.2

Sun Belt

319

UT Rio Grande Valley

93.9

Western Athletic

320

UT-Martin

90.4

Ohio Valley

321

Utah

104.6

Pac-12

322

Utah St.

110.5

Mountain West

323

Utah Valley

94.0

Western Athletic

324

UTEP

100.2

Conference USA

325

UTSA

98.2

Conference USA

326

Valparaiso

99.9

Missouri Valley

327

Vanderbilt

99.8

Southeastern

328

VCU

111.1

Atlantic 10

329

Vermont

107.4

America East

330

Villanova

114.1

Big East

331

Virginia

109.3

Atlantic Coast

332

Virginia Tech

107.7

Atlantic Coast

333

VMI

93.5

Southern

334

Wagner

89.0

Northeast

335

Wake Forest

104.3

Atlantic Coast

336

Washington

110.1

Pac-12

337

Washington St.

102.8

Pac-12

338

Weber St.

94.6

Big Sky

339

West Virginia

117.3

Big 12

340

Western Carolina

100.0

Southern

341

Western Illinois

88.9

Summit

342

Western Kentucky

104.3

Conference USA

343

Western Michigan

95.4

Mid-American

344

Wichita St.

111.4

American Athletic

345

William & Mary

100.2

Colonial Athletic

346

Winthrop

103.2

Big South

347

Wisconsin

111.7

Big Ten

348

Wofford

101.9

Southern

349

Wright St.

104.4

Horizon

350

Wyoming

92.5

Mountain West

351

Xavier

108.8

Big East

352

Yale

108.7

Ivy

353

Youngstown St.

95.1

Horizon

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

#

America East

PiRate

1

Vermont

107.4

2

Stony Brook

102.1

3

Albany

95.9

4

Hartford

93.6

5

New Hampshire

93.4

6

UMass Lowell

93.0

7

UM Baltimore Co.

91.9

8

Maine

88.9

9

Binghamton

88.1

Avg

America East

94.9

 

 

#

American Athletic

PiRate

1

Houston

112.5

2

Wichita St.

111.4

3

Cincinnati

110.9

4

Memphis

109.9

5

Connecticut

107.3

6

SMU

106.8

7

Tulsa

106.8

8

Temple

105.4

9

Central Florida

103.9

10

South Florida

102.8

11

Tulane

99.1

12

East Carolina

96.1

Avg

American Athletic

106.1

 

 

#

Atlantic 10

PiRate

1

Dayton

117.2

2

VCU

111.1

3

Rhode Island

109.3

4

Richmond

107.5

5

Davidson

105.6

6

Duquesne

105.6

7

Saint Louis

105.3

8

St. Bonaventure

102.8

9

George Mason

100.0

10

La Salle

99.4

11

Massachusetts

98.6

12

George Washington

98.0

13

Saint Joseph’s

94.5

14

Fordham

94.1

Avg.

Atlantic 10

103.5

 

 

#

Atlantic Coast

PiRate

1

Duke

121.4

2

Louisville

116.2

3

Florida St.

113.9

4

North Carolina St.

109.4

5

Virginia

109.3

6

Syracuse

109.3

7

Notre Dame

109.1

8

North Carolina

108.1

9

Virginia Tech

107.7

10

Georgia Tech

107.1

11

Pittsburgh

107.0

12

Clemson

107.0

13

Miami (Fla.)

104.5

14

Wake Forest

104.3

15

Boston College

100.4

Avg

Atlantic Coast

109.0

 

 

#

Atlantic Sun

PiRate

1

Liberty

106.8

2

North Florida

99.3

3

Jacksonville

95.2

4

Lipscomb

94.2

5

North Alabama

93.6

6

NJIT

93.3

7

Stetson

91.5

8

Florida Gulf Coast

91.0

9

Kennesaw St.

81.8

Avg

Atlantic Sun

94.1

 

 

#

Big 12

PiRate

1

Kansas

121.4

2

Baylor

117.8

3

West Virginia

117.3

4

Texas Tech

113.1

5

Oklahoma

109.9

6

Iowa St.

108.4

7

TCU

107.8

8

Texas

107.8

9

Oklahoma St.

107.4

10

Kansas St.

106.6

Avg

Big 12

111.8

 

 

#

Big East

PiRate

1

Seton Hall

115.5

2

Butler

114.2

3

Villanova

114.1

4

Marquette

113.0

5

Creighton

112.2

6

Georgetown

109.6

7

Xavier

108.8

8

Providence

107.7

9

St. John’s

107.5

10

DePaul

107.2

Avg

Big East

111.0

 

 

#

Big Sky

PiRate

1

Northern Colorado

103.9

2

Southern Utah

101.5

3

Eastern Washington

100.4

4

Montana

99.2

5

Northern Arizona

98.4

6

Sacramento St.

98.0

7

Portland St.

97.6

8

Montana St.

97.0

9

Weber St.

94.6

10

Idaho St.

91.8

11

Idaho

90.1

#

Big Sky

97.5

 

 

#

Big South

PiRate

1

Winthrop

103.2

2

Radford

100.0

3

Gardner-Webb

95.2

4

Campbell

93.2

5

UNC Asheville

92.8

6

Charleston Southern

91.9

7

Hampton

90.3

8

USC Upstate

90.0

9

Longwood

89.6

10

Presbyterian

88.2

11

High Point

86.1

Avg

Big South

92.8

 

 

#

Big Ten

PiRate

1

Michigan St.

118.8

2

Maryland

116.1

3

Ohio St.

115.4

4

Iowa

114.4

5

Penn St.

113.9

6

Illinois

113.0

7

Michigan

112.7

8

Purdue

112.5

9

Rutgers

112.5

10

Wisconsin

111.7

11

Indiana

111.4

12

Minnesota

111.2

13

Northwestern

103.5

14

Nebraska

103.1

Avg

Big Ten

112.2

 

 

#

Big West

PiRate

1

UC Irvine

103.4

2

Hawaii

99.3

3

UC Santa Barbara

98.9

4

UC Riverside

97.3

5

UC Davis

95.5

6

Cal St. Northridge

94.7

7

Cal St. Fullerton

94.3

8

Long Beach St.

92.1

9

Cal Poly

90.2

Avg

Big West

96.2

 

 

#

Colonial Athletic

PiRate

1

Northeastern

102.3

2

Hofstra

101.9

3

Charleston

101.8

4

Towson

100.6

5

William & Mary

100.2

6

Delaware

98.6

7

Drexel

96.1

8

James Madison

92.4

9

UNC Wilmington

91.4

10

Elon

90.4

Avg

Colonial Athletic

97.6

 

 

#

Conference USA

PiRate

1

Louisiana Tech

108.2

2

North Texas

106.5

3

Western Kentucky

104.3

4

Marshall

101.0

5

Charlotte

100.8

6

UTEP

100.2

7

Old Dominion

99.9

8

Florida Int’l.

99.0

9

UAB

98.7

10

UTSA

98.2

11

Florida Atlantic

98.2

12

Rice

95.1

13

Southern Miss.

94.0

14

Middle Tennessee

93.0

Avg

Conference USA

99.8

 

 

#

Horizon

PiRate

1

Wright St.

104.4

2

Northern Kentucky

102.3

3

Green Bay

96.2

4

Illinois Chicago

96.1

5

Oakland

95.2

6

Youngstown St.

95.1

7

Milwaukee

94.4

8

Detroit

93.6

9

Cleveland St.

91.2

10

IUPUI

89.3

Avg

Horizon

95.8

 

 

#

Ivy

PiRate

1

Yale

108.7

2

Harvard

105.2

3

Penn

101.4

4

Princeton

98.3

5

Dartmouth

97.8

6

Brown

96.9

7

Columbia

94.4

8

Cornell

93.3

Avg

Ivy

99.5

 

 

#

Metro Atlantic

PiRate

1

Rider

98.2

2

Siena

97.8

3

Monmouth

97.2

4

Canisius

96.1

5

Saint Peter’s

95.7

6

Quinnipiac

95.0

7

Fairfield

95.0

8

Manhattan

94.7

9

Iona

93.9

10

Niagara

92.2

11

Marist

88.3

Avg

Metro Atlantic

94.9

 

 

#

Mid-American

PiRate

1

Akron

107.3

2

Kent St.

104.7

3

Ball St.

104.1

4

Toledo

103.0

5

Buffalo

101.9

6

Bowling Green

100.9

7

Central Michigan

99.3

8

Northern Illinois

99.2

9

Ohio

97.6

10

Miami (O)

96.9

11

Eastern Michigan

96.4

12

Western Michigan

95.4

Avg

Mid-American

100.6

 

 

#

Mideastern Athletic

PiRate

1

Norfolk St.

94.9

2

Bethune Cookman

92.3

3

North Carolina Central

92.2

4

North Carolina A&T

91.9

5

Morgan St.

90.3

6

Florida A&M

90.1

7

South Carolina St.

89.0

8

Coppin St.

88.7

9

Howard

82.1

10

MD Eastern Shore

80.5

11

Delaware St.

79.8

Avg

Mideastern Athletic

88.3

 

 

#

Missouri Valley

PiRate

1

Northern Iowa

109.4

2

Loyola (Chi.)

105.7

3

Bradley

104.9

4

Indiana St.

102.6

5

Drake

101.3

6

Missouri St.

100.4

7

Southern Illinois

100.2

8

Valparaiso

99.9

9

Illinois St.

96.9

10

Evansville

93.3

Avg

Missouri Valley

101.5

 

 

#

Mountain West

PiRate

1

San Diego St.

115.8

2

Utah St.

110.5

3

Boise St.

106.4

4

Nevada

106.2

5

Colorado St.

104.6

6

UNLV

102.8

7

New Mexico

102.2

8

Fresno St.

101.4

9

Air Force

98.6

10

Wyoming

92.5

11

San Jose St.

92.0

Avg

Mountain West

103.0

 

 

#

Northeast

PiRate

1

Sacred Heart

97.6

2

St. Francis (PA)

96.9

3

Robert Morris

96.5

4

Bryant

96.3

5

Long Island

95.5

6

Merrimack

95.3

7

Mount St. Mary’s

94.4

8

St. Francis (NY)

91.6

9

Fairleigh Dickinson

91.0

10

Wagner

89.0

11

Central Connecticut

81.1

Avg

Northeast

93.2

 

 

#

Ohio Valley

PiRate

1

Belmont

105.5

2

Murray St.

102.5

3

Austin Peay

101.2

4

Eastern Illinois

96.4

5

Tennessee St.

95.3

6

Jacksonville St.

94.9

7

Morehead St.

91.8

8

Eastern Kentucky

91.1

9

UT-Martin

90.4

10

SE Missouri

88.1

11

Tennessee Tech

87.6

12

SIU Edwardsville

87.2

Avg

Ohio Valley

94.3

 

 

#

Pac-12

PiRate

1

Arizona

116.6

2

Oregon

113.8

3

Colorado

112.9

4

Stanford

110.1

5

Washington

110.1

6

USC

109.4

7

Arizona St.

108.0

8

Oregon St.

106.5

9

Utah

104.6

10

UCLA

103.8

11

Washington St.

102.8

12

California

99.9

Avg

Pac-12

108.2

 

 

#

Patriot

PiRate

1

Colgate

102.4

2

Boston U

99.5

3

Lafayette

98.2

4

American

96.4

5

Navy

96.4

6

Bucknell

96.1

7

Army

94.0

8

Loyola (MD)

92.6

9

Lehigh

91.6

10

Holy Cross

86.9

Avg

Patriot

95.4

 

 

#

Southeastern

PiRate

1

Kentucky

113.1

2

LSU

112.9

3

Auburn

112.5

4

Arkansas

112.5

5

Florida

111.9

6

Alabama

111.3

7

Mississippi St.

111.2

8

Tennessee

108.9

9

South Carolina

106.7

10

Missouri

106.5

11

Georgia

106.0

12

Mississippi

104.5

13

Texas A&M

101.7

14

Vanderbilt

99.8

Avg

Southeastern

108.5

 

 

#

Southern

PiRate

1

UNC Greensboro

107.9

2

East Tennessee St.

107.5

3

Furman

106.5

4

Wofford

101.9

5

Chattanooga

100.2

6

Western Carolina

100.0

7

Mercer

97.2

8

VMI

93.5

9

Samford

92.8

10

Citadel

90.1

Avg

Southern

99.8

 

 

#

Southland

PiRate

1

Stephen F. Austin

103.3

2

Sam Houston St.

100.2

3

Nicholls St.

98.1

4

Abilene Christian

97.7

5

McNeese St.

96.2

6

Lamar

93.7

7

Texas A&M CC

92.4

8

Central Arkansas

91.5

9

Northwestern St.

89.8

10

New Orleans

89.8

11

SE Louisiana

87.8

12

Houston Baptist

84.4

13

Incarnate Word

82.8

Avg

Southland

92.9

 

 

#

Southwestern Athletic

PiRate

1

Prairie View A&M

97.5

2

Texas Southern

94.9

3

Alcorn St.

92.2

4

Southern

90.8

5

Grambling

89.9

6

Jackson St.

89.3

7

Alabama St.

86.9

8

Alabama A&M

86.6

9

Arkansas Pine Bluff

83.6

10

Mississippi Valley St.

78.6

Avg

Southwestern Athletic

89.0

 

 

#

Summit

PiRate

1

South Dakota St.

102.9

2

Oral Roberts

101.8

3

North Dakota St.

101.7

4

South Dakota

99.5

5

Omaha

97.3

6

North Dakota

95.9

7

Purdue Fort Wayne

94.0

8

Denver

90.4

9

Western Illinois

88.9

Avg

Summit

96.9

 

 

#

Sun Belt

PiRate

1

Georgia St.

105.1

2

UT Arlington

103.2

3

Texas St.

103.1

4

Little Rock

102.3

5

Georgia Southern

101.8

6

Appalachian St.

99.8

7

South Alabama

99.5

8

Coastal Carolina

98.6

9

Arkansas St.

97.2

10

Louisiana

95.2

11

Louisiana Monroe

93.2

12

Troy

93.0

Avg

Sun Belt

99.3

 

 

#

West Coast

PiRate

1

Gonzaga

120.0

2

BYU

113.5

3

Saint Mary’s

111.1

4

San Francisco

106.2

5

Santa Clara

101.7

6

Pacific

101.0

7

Pepperdine

100.8

8

Loyola Marymount

97.0

9

San Diego

96.5

10

Portland

94.2

Avg

West Coast

104.2

 

 

#

Western Athletic

PiRate

1

New Mexico St.

104.7

2

California Baptist

99.2

3

Seattle

97.4

4

Missouri-KC

96.4

5

Cal St. Bakersfield

96.4

6

Grand Canyon

95.7

7

Utah Valley

94.0

8

UT Rio Grande Valley

93.9

9

Chicago St.

76.7

Avg

Western Athletic

94.9

 

Conference Ratings

 

#

Conference

PiRate

1

Big Ten

112.2

2

Big 12

111.8

3

Big East

111.0

4

Atlantic Coast

109.0

5

Southeastern

108.5

6

Pac-12

108.2

7

American Athletic

106.1

8

West Coast

104.2

9

Atlantic 10

103.5

10

Mountain West

103.0

11

Missouri Valley

101.5

12

Mid-American

100.6

13

Conference USA

99.8

14

Southern

99.8

15

Ivy

99.5

16

Sun Belt

99.3

17

Colonial Athletic

97.6

18

Big Sky

97.5

19

Summit

96.9

20

Big West

96.2

21

Horizon

95.8

22

Patriot

95.4

23

Western Athletic

94.9

24

Metro Atlantic

94.9

25

America East

94.9

26

Ohio Valley

94.3

27

Atlantic Sun

94.1

28

Northeast

93.2

29

Southland

92.9

30

Big South

92.8

31

Southwestern Athletic

89.0

32

Mideastern Athletic

88.3

 

Coming Later Today: Updated Bracketology

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 3, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 3, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:46 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday

November 5

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Toledo

Kent St.

2.8

3.2

3.2

Western Michigan

Ball St.

10.9

10.5

10.8

 

 

Wednesday

November 6

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio U

Miami (O)

7.4

7.8

7.5

 

 

Thursday

November 7

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Coastal Carolina

Louisiana

-11.7

-10.7

-12.1

South Florida

Temple

-3.9

-1.8

-4.3

 

 

Friday

November 8

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon St.

Washington

-11.6

-10.2

-12.9

Tulsa

Central Florida

-18.6

-17.1

-18.3

 

 

Saturday

November 9

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

LSU

9.2

8.4

9.9

Arizona St.

USC

2.9

1.8

3.1

Arkansas

Western Kentucky

5.8

5.1

3.9

Army

Massachusetts

38.5

36.9

39.1

Boise St.

Wyoming

9.9

7.7

9.6

Boston College

Florida St.

2.6

2.4

3.0

BYU

Liberty

17.2

15.9

17.4

California

Washington St.

-7.1

-6.7

-7.3

Cincinnati

Connecticut

38.8

34.5

40.2

Colorado

Stanford

-5.5

-5.1

-5.6

Duke

Notre Dame

-7.7

-6.5

-7.3

Florida

Vanderbilt

28.5

26.9

29.3

Florida Atlantic

Florida Int’l.

9.4

9.5

10.9

Fresno St.

Utah St.

-1.0

0.9

-1.2

Georgia

Missouri

18.1

18.6

18.6

Hawaii

San Jose St.

12.0

11.5

11.1

Kentucky

Tennessee

2.2

1.0

2.0

Louisiana Tech

North Texas

6.4

7.1

6.2

Miami (Fla.)

Louisville

10.7

10.4

11.8

Michigan St.

Illinois

14.0

12.1

13.9

Minnesota

Penn St.

-3.9

-3.1

-4.5

New Mexico

Air Force

-21.4

-20.3

-23.4

North Carolina St.

Clemson

-35.7

-33.8

-36.9

Northwestern

Purdue

1.5

0.5

0.7

Ohio St.

Maryland

42.4

42.6

44.9

Oklahoma

Iowa St.

11.8

10.3

11.2

Old Dominion

UTSA

0.7

-1.1

0.9

Ole Miss

New Mexico St.

33.0

30.0

32.9

San Diego St.

Nevada

14.7

14.9

15.2

SMU

East Carolina

26.3

24.6

27.0

South Carolina

Appalachian St.

8.1

7.4

8.1

Southern Miss.

UAB

7.0

4.0

6.5

TCU

Baylor

-4.1

-1.7

-3.2

Texas

Kansas St.

0.7

1.0

0.6

Texas St.

South Alabama

9.8

7.8

9.8

Troy

Georgia Southern

-2.9

-2.1

-3.5

UL-Monroe

Georgia St.

-4.1

-5.0

-4.3

UTEP

Charlotte

-15.1

-11.5

-14.9

Virginia

Georgia Tech

15.8

17.6

15.9

Virginia Tech

Wake Forest

-1.5

-1.0

-1.5

West Virginia

Texas Tech

1.2

0.7

1.6

Wisconsin

Iowa

4.3

5.7

4.3

 

Special Game–150th Anniversary of College Football

Dartmouth and Princeton will play Saturday at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx at 3:30 PM EST.  The game is available on ESPNU, and both teams sport perfect 7-0 records in the FCS Division.  It will mark the 150th anniversary of college football.  Princeton (known then as the College of New Jersey until 1896) and Rutgers met for the first college game in November 6, 1869, and Rutgers won that game 6 goals to 4.

This might be the most important Ivy League game since 8-0-0 Harvard and 8-0-0 Yale battled to an unbelievable 29-29 tie to conclude the 1968 season.  Yale led 29-13 with less than a minute to play, and Harvard scored twice with successful two-point conversions to tie the game and claim part of the Ivy League Championship.

Dartmouth and Princeton have been the top two programs in recent Ivy League history.  Both teams have enjoyed some incredible seasons in the distant past as well.  The 1970 Darmouth team was the best in Ivy League history, as they won the Lambert Trophy for best overall team from the East and finished ranked in the top 20 in the nation after  finishing 9-0.  That Dartmouth team surrendered just 42 points all season, but they didn’t give up a point in their final four games.

Princeton was one of the final teams in major college football to use the old Single Wing offense.  The Tigers went 9-0 and won the Ivy League in 1964, but their 1950 and 1951 teams that went undefeated finished number six in the AP Poll, and star back Dick Kazmaier won the 1951 Heisman Trophy.

The Ivy League isn’t Division 1 any more, and the champion doesn’t even get to go to the FCS Playoffs, but this is still an incredible game worth watching if you have a second monitor to watch in addition to that other 3:30 PM game in Tuscaloosa, AL.

The PiRate Ratings do not rate FCS teams the same way as we rate FBS teams.  We can estimate a power rating based on a former PiRate Formula, which we used from 1980 to 1996.

The estimate for this game is: 

Dartmouth 19

Princeton 16

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

139.0

138.1

140.1

139.1

2

Clemson

135.3

133.0

136.3

134.9

3

Alabama

135.6

132.5

136.3

134.8

4

L S U

129.4

127.1

129.3

128.6

5

Georgia

126.7

124.8

126.7

126.1

6

Penn St.

124.9

124.1

125.2

124.8

7

Utah

123.7

122.6

124.5

123.6

8

Oklahoma

123.5

122.7

123.2

123.1

9

Michigan

123.0

121.6

123.3

122.6

10

Auburn

122.5

120.8

122.3

121.9

11

Oregon

121.2

121.3

122.5

121.7

12

Florida

122.8

119.9

122.3

121.6

13

Wisconsin

120.4

120.0

120.3

120.2

14

Iowa

119.1

117.3

119.0

118.4

15

Minnesota

118.1

117.9

117.8

117.9

16

Notre Dame

116.4

114.7

116.0

115.7

17

Texas A&M

116.2

114.6

115.1

115.3

18

Iowa St.

114.8

115.4

115.0

115.1

19

Washington

114.3

114.0

115.3

114.5

20

Central Florida

113.5

112.8

114.2

113.5

21

Baylor

113.5

113.5

112.8

113.3

22

Washington St.

113.0

112.2

113.5

112.9

23

Kansas St.

112.3

112.2

112.3

112.3

24

Michigan St.

112.7

111.8

112.2

112.2

25

Mississippi St.

110.8

107.5

114.7

111.0

26

South Carolina

111.7

110.0

111.1

110.9

27

Missouri

111.6

109.2

111.1

110.6

28

Indiana

110.6

109.6

110.3

110.2

29

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.7

109.7

110.1

30

Texas

109.9

110.2

109.9

110.0

31

Tennessee

109.5

109.3

108.6

109.1

32

T C U

107.3

109.8

107.6

108.2

33

Kentucky

108.7

107.3

107.6

107.9

34

Virginia

107.7

107.8

107.9

107.8

35

U S C

107.3

107.8

107.6

107.6

36

Miami (Fla.)

107.2

106.8

108.3

107.4

37

Arizona St.

107.2

106.5

107.7

107.2

38

Cincinnati

107.0

106.0

107.4

106.8

39

Wake Forest

106.5

106.0

107.0

106.5

40

SMU

106.2

105.9

107.1

106.4

41

Memphis

105.9

105.9

106.7

106.2

42

Appalachian St.

106.6

105.6

106.0

106.1

43

Ole Miss

106.4

105.4

106.3

106.0

44

Boise St.

106.0

105.9

106.1

106.0

45

Pittsburgh

105.7

105.3

106.0

105.7

46

North Carolina

105.4

105.2

106.1

105.6

47

Duke

105.7

105.1

105.6

105.5

48

Air Force

103.7

105.0

104.5

104.4

49

Texas Tech

104.4

104.6

103.5

104.2

50

Stanford

104.0

103.3

103.7

103.7

51

Florida St.

103.6

103.5

103.6

103.6

52

Purdue

103.6

103.4

102.9

103.3

53

BYU

103.2

103.2

103.4

103.3

54

Boston College

103.2

102.9

103.6

103.2

55

Nebraska

103.1

103.6

102.3

103.0

56

California

102.8

102.4

103.3

102.8

57

West Virginia

102.7

102.3

102.1

102.3

58

Virginia Tech

102.0

102.0

102.5

102.2

59

Illinois

101.7

102.6

101.3

101.9

60

Northwestern

102.5

101.4

101.2

101.7

61

U C L A

101.7

101.6

101.5

101.6

62

Louisiana

101.3

101.6

101.4

101.4

63

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.2

100.1

64

Oregon St.

99.8

100.8

99.5

100.0

65

Wyoming

99.0

101.2

99.6

99.9

66

Louisville

99.6

99.4

99.5

99.5

67

Navy

97.9

100.5

98.9

99.1

68

Utah St.

99.2

98.4

99.8

99.1

69

Maryland

99.6

98.5

98.2

98.8

70

Western Michigan

98.8

97.9

98.7

98.5

71

San Diego St.

97.9

99.6

97.7

98.4

72

Temple

98.3

97.5

99.1

98.3

73

Syracuse

98.5

97.7

97.8

98.0

74

Houston

97.0

97.9

99.1

98.0

75

Georgia Southern

96.9

96.7

96.4

96.7

76

Arizona

96.7

96.5

96.2

96.5

77

North Carolina St.

96.6

96.2

96.5

96.4

78

Vanderbilt

97.3

96.0

96.0

96.4

79

Florida Atlantic

95.6

95.5

96.9

96.0

80

Kansas

95.5

96.5

95.4

95.8

81

Fresno St.

95.2

96.2

95.6

95.7

82

Hawaii

95.2

96.6

94.3

95.4

83

Colorado

95.5

95.2

95.1

95.2

84

Georgia Tech

94.8

93.2

95.0

94.3

85

Ohio

94.4

93.5

94.9

94.3

86

Southern Miss.

94.6

93.3

94.8

94.2

87

Louisiana Tech

94.0

94.4

94.3

94.2

88

Army

94.1

94.2

93.4

93.9

89

Buffalo

92.9

93.6

94.4

93.6

90

Georgia St.

92.5

93.8

92.2

92.8

91

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

92.9

92.5

92

Arkansas

92.2

92.2

91.6

92.0

93

South Florida

91.4

92.6

91.8

91.9

94

Troy

91.6

92.1

90.5

91.4

95

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.6

91.2

91.4

96

Marshall

90.8

90.4

91.6

90.9

97

U A B

90.1

91.8

90.7

90.9

98

North Texas

90.6

90.2

91.1

90.6

99

Ball St.

90.4

89.9

90.4

90.2

100

Western Kentucky

89.4

90.2

90.8

90.1

101

Liberty

89.5

90.8

89.6

89.9

102

Middle Tennessee

89.8

89.0

89.9

89.6

103

Northern Illinois

89.5

88.7

89.6

89.3

104

Miami (Ohio)

89.5

88.2

89.9

89.2

105

Toledo

88.4

88.7

89.1

88.7

106

Central Michigan

88.2

88.8

89.1

88.7

107

Colorado St.

87.1

90.7

87.7

88.5

108

San Jose St.

87.7

89.5

87.7

88.3

109

Kent St.

87.6

87.4

87.9

87.6

110

Florida Int’l.

87.7

87.5

87.5

87.6

111

Coastal Carolina

87.2

88.4

86.8

87.5

112

Nevada

86.2

87.7

85.5

86.5

113

Charlotte

86.1

86.4

86.5

86.3

114

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.4

85.9

115

Eastern Michigan

84.2

84.3

84.5

84.4

116

Rutgers

84.1

83.8

82.9

83.6

117

U N L V

83.1

84.7

82.7

83.5

118

East Carolina

82.9

84.3

83.1

83.4

119

Texas St.

81.8

82.3

81.0

81.7

120

New Mexico

79.8

82.2

78.5

80.2

121

Rice

79.5

80.4

78.7

79.6

122

New Mexico St.

76.4

78.5

76.4

77.1

123

Texas-San Antonio

75.6

77.7

75.5

76.2

124

South Alabama

74.5

77.0

73.7

75.1

125

Bowling Green

74.1

73.9

74.1

74.1

126

Old Dominion

73.8

74.0

73.9

73.9

127

Connecticut

71.2

74.5

70.2

72.0

128

U T E P

68.5

72.5

69.1

70.0

129

Akron

66.9

66.7

65.6

66.4

130

Massachusetts

58.6

60.3

57.3

58.7

 

PiRate Ratings For Conference

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

113.5

112.8

114.2

113.5

4-1

7-2

Cincinnati

107.0

106.0

107.4

106.8

4-0

7-1

Temple

98.3

97.5

99.1

98.3

2-2

5-3

South Florida

91.4

92.6

91.8

91.9

2-2

4-4

East Carolina

82.9

84.3

83.1

83.4

0-5

3-6

Connecticut

71.2

74.5

70.2

72.0

0-5

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

SMU

106.2

105.9

107.1

106.4

4-1

8-1

Memphis

105.9

105.9

106.7

106.2

4-1

8-1

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.2

100.1

3-2

6-3

Navy

97.9

100.5

98.9

99.1

5-1

7-1

Houston

97.0

97.9

99.1

98.0

1-4

3-6

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

92.9

92.5

0-5

2-7

AAC Averages

96.9

97.6

97.6

97.3

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

135.3

133.0

136.3

134.9

6-0

9-0

Wake Forest

106.5

106.0

107.0

106.5

3-1

7-1

Florida St.

103.6

103.5

103.6

103.6

3-4

4-5

Boston College

103.2

102.9

103.6

103.2

3-3

5-4

Louisville

99.6

99.4

99.5

99.5

3-2

5-3

Syracuse

98.5

97.7

97.8

98.0

0-5

3-6

North Carolina St.

96.6

96.2

96.5

96.4

1-3

4-4

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia

107.7

107.8

107.9

107.8

4-2

6-3

Miami (Fla.)

107.2

106.8

108.3

107.4

3-3

5-4

Pittsburgh

105.7

105.3

106.0

105.7

3-2

6-3

North Carolina

105.4

105.2

106.1

105.6

3-3

4-5

Duke

105.7

105.1

105.6

105.5

2-3

4-4

Virginia Tech

102.0

102.0

102.5

102.2

3-2

5-3

Georgia Tech

94.8

93.2

95.0

94.3

1-4

2-6

ACC Averages

105.1

104.6

105.4

105.0

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

123.5

122.7

123.2

123.1

4-1

7-1

Iowa St.

114.8

115.4

115.0

115.1

3-2

5-3

Baylor

113.5

113.5

112.8

113.3

5-0

8-0

Kansas St.

112.3

112.2

112.3

112.3

3-2

6-2

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.7

109.7

110.1

3-3

6-3

Texas

109.9

110.2

109.9

110.0

3-2

5-3

T C U

107.3

109.8

107.6

108.2

2-3

4-4

Texas Tech

104.4

104.6

103.5

104.2

1-4

3-5

West Virginia

102.7

102.3

102.1

102.3

1-4

3-5

Kansas

95.5

96.5

95.4

95.8

1-5

3-6

Big 12 Averages

109.4

109.8

109.1

109.4

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

139.0

138.1

140.1

139.1

5-0

8-0

Penn St.

124.9

124.1

125.2

124.8

5-0

8-0

Michigan

123.0

121.6

123.3

122.6

4-2

7-2

Michigan St.

112.7

111.8

112.2

112.2

2-3

4-4

Indiana

110.6

109.6

110.3

110.2

4-2

7-2

Maryland

99.6

98.5

98.2

98.8

1-5

3-6

Rutgers

84.1

83.8

82.9

83.6

0-6

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.4

120.0

120.3

120.2

3-2

6-2

Iowa

119.1

117.3

119.0

118.4

3-2

6-2

Minnesota

118.1

117.9

117.8

117.9

5-0

8-0

Purdue

103.6

103.4

102.9

103.3

2-4

3-6

Nebraska

103.1

103.6

102.3

103.0

2-4

4-5

Illinois

101.7

102.6

101.3

101.9

3-3

5-4

Northwestern

102.5

101.4

101.2

101.7

0-6

1-7

Big Ten Averages

111.6

111.0

111.2

111.3

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

95.6

95.5

96.9

96.0

4-1

6-3

Marshall

90.8

90.4

91.6

90.9

4-1

6-3

Western Kentucky

89.4

90.2

90.8

90.1

4-2

5-4

Middle Tennessee

89.8

89.0

89.9

89.6

2-3

3-6

Florida Int’l.

87.7

87.5

87.5

87.6

3-3

5-4

Charlotte

86.1

86.4

86.5

86.3

2-3

4-5

Old Dominion

73.8

74.0

73.9

73.9

0-5

1-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

94.6

93.3

94.8

94.2

3-1

5-3

Louisiana Tech

94.0

94.4

94.3

94.2

4-0

7-1

U A B

90.1

91.8

90.7

90.9

3-1

6-2

North Texas

90.6

90.2

91.1

90.6

3-2

4-5

Rice

79.5

80.4

78.7

79.6

0-5

0-9

Texas-San Antonio

75.6

77.7

75.5

76.2

2-2

3-5

U T E P

68.5

72.5

69.1

70.0

0-5

1-7

CUSA Averages

86.1

86.7

86.5

86.4

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

116.4

114.7

116.0

115.7

x

6-2

BYU

103.2

103.2

103.4

103.3

x

4-4

Army

94.1

94.2

93.4

93.9

x

3-6

Liberty

89.5

90.8

89.6

89.9

x

6-3

New Mexico St.

76.4

78.5

76.4

77.1

x

0-8

Massachusetts

58.6

60.3

57.3

58.7

x

1-8

Indep. Averages

89.7

90.3

89.3

89.8

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

94.4

93.5

94.9

94.3

3-1

4-4

Buffalo

92.9

93.6

94.4

93.6

3-2

5-4

Miami (Ohio)

89.5

88.2

89.9

89.2

3-1

4-4

Kent St.

87.6

87.4

87.9

87.6

2-2

3-5

Bowling Green

74.1

73.9

74.1

74.1

2-3

3-6

Akron

66.9

66.7

65.6

66.4

0-5

0-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.8

97.9

98.7

98.5

3-2

5-4

Ball St.

90.4

89.9

90.4

90.2

3-1

4-4

Northern Illinois

89.5

88.7

89.6

89.3

2-3

3-6

Toledo

88.4

88.7

89.1

88.7

2-2

5-3

Central Michigan

88.2

88.8

89.1

88.7

4-2

6-4

Eastern Michigan

84.2

84.3

84.5

84.4

1-4

4-5

MAC Averages

87.1

86.8

87.4

87.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.0

105.9

106.1

106.0

4-0

7-1

Air Force

103.7

105.0

104.5

104.4

4-1

7-2

Wyoming

99.0

101.2

99.6

99.9

3-1

6-2

Utah St.

99.2

98.4

99.8

99.1

3-1

4-4

Colorado St.

87.1

90.7

87.7

88.5

3-2

4-5

New Mexico

79.8

82.2

78.5

80.2

0-5

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

97.9

99.6

97.7

98.4

4-1

7-1

Fresno St.

95.2

96.2

95.6

95.7

2-2

4-4

Hawaii

95.2

96.6

94.3

95.4

2-3

5-4

San Jose St.

87.7

89.5

87.7

88.3

1-4

4-5

Nevada

86.2

87.7

85.5

86.5

2-3

5-4

U N L V

83.1

84.7

82.7

83.5

1-5

2-7

MWC Averages

93.3

94.8

93.3

93.8

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

121.2

121.3

122.5

121.7

6-0

8-1

Washington

114.3

114.0

115.3

114.5

2-4

5-4

Washington St.

113.0

112.2

113.5

112.9

1-4

4-4

Stanford

104.0

103.3

103.7

103.7

3-3

4-4

California

102.8

102.4

103.3

102.8

1-4

4-4

Oregon St.

99.8

100.8

99.5

100.0

3-2

4-4

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

123.7

122.6

124.5

123.6

5-1

8-1

U S C

107.3

107.8

107.6

107.6

4-2

5-4

Arizona St.

107.2

106.5

107.7

107.2

2-3

5-3

U C L A

101.7

101.6

101.5

101.6

4-2

4-5

Arizona

96.7

96.5

96.2

96.5

2-4

4-5

Colorado

95.5

95.2

95.1

95.2

1-5

3-6

Pac-12 Averages

107.3

107.0

107.5

107.3

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

126.7

124.8

126.7

126.1

4-1

7-1

Florida

122.8

119.9

122.3

121.6

5-2

7-2

South Carolina

111.7

110.0

111.1

110.9

3-4

4-5

Missouri

111.6

109.2

111.1

110.6

2-2

5-3

Tennessee

109.5

109.3

108.6

109.1

2-3

4-5

Kentucky

108.7

107.3

107.6

107.9

2-4

4-4

Vanderbilt

97.3

96.0

96.0

96.4

1-4

2-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.6

132.5

136.3

134.8

5-0

8-0

L S U

129.4

127.1

129.3

128.6

4-0

8-0

Auburn

122.5

120.8

122.3

121.9

4-2

7-2

Texas A&M

116.2

114.6

115.1

115.3

3-2

6-3

Mississippi St.

110.8

107.5

114.7

111.0

2-4

4-5

Ole Miss

106.4

105.4

106.3

106.0

2-4

3-6

Arkansas

92.2

92.2

91.6

92.0

0-6

2-7

SEC Averages

114.4

112.6

114.2

113.7

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

106.6

105.6

106.0

106.1

4-1

7-1

Georgia Southern

96.9

96.7

96.4

96.7

3-1

5-3

Georgia St.

92.5

93.8

92.2

92.8

3-1

6-2

Troy

91.6

92.1

90.5

91.4

1-3

3-5

Coastal Carolina

87.2

88.4

86.8

87.5

1-3

4-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

101.3

101.6

101.4

101.4

3-1

6-2

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.6

91.2

91.4

3-2

5-4

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.4

85.9

2-2

3-5

Texas St.

81.8

82.3

81.0

81.7

1-3

2-6

South Alabama

74.5

77.0

73.7

75.1

0-4

1-7

SBC Averages

91.0

91.6

90.5

91.0

 

Rating The Conferences

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.7

2

Big Ten

111.3

3

Big 12

109.4

4

Pac-12

107.3

5

Atlantic Coast

105.0

6

American

97.3

7

Mountain West

93.8

8

Sun Belt

91.0

9

Independents

89.8

10

Mid-American

87.1

11

Conference USA

86.4

 

PiRate Rating Guess On Initial Top 4

Prediction on Selection Committee Choices on Tuesday

1

LSU

2

Ohio St.

3

Alabama

4

Penn St.

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Memphis

2

Cincinnati

3

Boise St.

4

Navy

5

SMU

Playoffs and Bowl Projections

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Buffalo

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Boise St.]

Cure

AAC

SBC

[Liberty]

Arkansas St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

UAB

Hawaii

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Tulane

Ohio

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Georgia St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

San Diego St.

Oregon St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Louisiana

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Cincinnati

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Navy

Independence

ACC

SEC

Miami (Fla.)

[Southern Miss.]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Michigan St.

Military

ACC

AAC

Boston College

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Virginia

Michigan

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

USC

Iowa

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Iowa St.

Arizona St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Oklahoma St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Memphis

Baylor

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Western Kentucky

[Fresno St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Illinois

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Ball St.]

Pittsburgh

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Wake Forest

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

Virginia Tech

Mississippi St.

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Louisville

Washington St.

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

TCU

[Stanford]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Appalachian St.

Air Force

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

Utah

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Tennessee

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Central Florida

[Duke]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Wyoming

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Georgia Southern

 

 

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Clemson

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

LSU

 

 

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

 

 

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

This Is The Weekend

We don’t really need to say anything.  If you are reading this publication, you already know how incredible this weekend will be in college football.  On a typical November 9 in prior years, the incredible Princeton-Dartmouth game at Yankee Stadium might be the marquee game of the weekend.  Unfortunately, it starts at the same time as the biggie at Bryant-Denny.  Let’s take a brief look at the games that may make you want to stay home on Saturday, throw some logs on the fireplace, enjoy your favorite snacks and beverages, and watch two to three games at the same time.

 

12 Noon EST

 

 

Penn St. (8-0) at Minnesota (8-0)–ABC

The winner stays in the hunt for a Playoff spot, while the loser probably falls out of the Rose Bowl race.  Minnesota hasn’t played in a November game that had this type of importance since they played at Purdue in November of 1967 with a Rose Bowl bid on the line.  Purdue clobbered the Gophers that day, and even though Minnesota beat undefeated Indiana the following week, when the season ended in a three-way tie for first, Indiana received the Rose Bowl bid because Minnesota and Purdue had been in the Rose Bowl more recently (It was the Hoosiers’ only Rose Bowl invitation).

Penn State has been in the Rose Bowl more recently, but the Nittany Lions would consider a trip to Pasadena this year to be a failure.  James Franklin has his team in line for the Playoffs if they could upset Ohio State on the November 23 and then win the Big Ten Championship.  Of course, the same holds true for the Gophers.  Wins over Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, and then Ohio State would definitely put Minnesota in the Playoffs.  Consider this game the equivalent of a Sweet 16 game in the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

 

Baylor (8-0) at TCU (4-4)–FS1

This is a 100% definite trap game for the undefeated Bears.  Baylor hosts Oklahoma on November 16, and no matter how hard Coach Matt Rhule tries to convince his squad that TCU is good enough to beat them, the players are already counting down the days until the Sooners come to Waco.

TCU is on the verge of having to worry about where two more victories will come, so bowl eligibility is not yet a given in Forth Worth.  The Horned Frogs have to win two of their final four and have games at Texas Tech and Oklahoma, as well as a home finale with West Virginia.  They will be underdogs in three of their final four and must upset somebody to get to a bowl.

 

 

3:30 PM EST

 

LSU (8-0) at Alabama (8-0)–CBS

The knock against LSU in recent years was that the Tigers were too conservative on the offensive attack, and defense and running couldn’t beat Alabama and other behemoths.  This year, LSU’s offense can light it up against anybody, including Alabama’s defense.

The rub is that with the increased offensive efficiency and quick scoring passing attack, the Tigers’ defense has been forced to play up to 20 additional snaps per game, and opponents are finding ways to move the ball on the former tough defense.

All that’s changed is that LSU wins games 42-27 instead of 27-12.  A 15-point victory is a 15-point victory.  In the SEC, talent at each of the two-deep offenses and defenses just mean more than whether a team can pass the ball for 300 yards and score 30 points or hold the opponents to 250 total yards and 14 points.

Alabama still has the superior overall talent in the two-deeps on both sides of the ball.  In the past, Alabama might have won this game 24-14.  We believe they will continue to dominate this series and win it 45-35.  A 10-point superior team is still 10 points better than the other team.

 

Dartmouth (7-0) vs. Princeton (7-0) @ Yankee Stadium in the Bronx–ESPNU

This is the 150th Anniversary of College Football, so it is worth tuning in to watch when and if the big game is not as exciting.  It isn’t the original Yankee Stadium, but Yankee Stadium has been the site of many great college football games including the incredible Army-Notre Dame game of 1946, which ended 0-0.

 

Kansas St. (6-2) at Texas (5-3)–ESPN

Both teams are 3-2 in the Big 12, and they are still mathematically in the race for the number two spot in the Conference Championship Game.  Kansas State holds the tiebreaker over Oklahoma, so if the Wildcats can win out, and Oklahoma loses to Baylor or Oklahoma State, the Wildcats will play for a chance to go to the Sugar Bowl.

This has been a down year for Texas, and the Longhorns could be falling far enough to be placed in a bowl game in Houston against those Aggies.  The Texas Bowl would love that, but the Longhorns wouldn’t.

 

Illinois (5-4) at Michigan St. (4-4)–FS1

Why do we consider this game so important?  Illinois was given up for dead in early October, as the Illini appeared to be headed to a 6th or 7th place finish in the Big Ten West, and Coach Lovie Smith was probably on the way out.  Illinois had defeated Akron and Connecticut, two of the bottom 10 teams in the nation, and they had lost to Eastern Michigan.  At 2-4, Illinois then upset Wisconsin and followed that up with an impressive win at Purdue and a four-touchdown trouncing of Rutgers.  The Illini need one more victory to go bowling.  They are likely to get it against Northwestern to close out the season, but if Illinois can win at Michigan State, they will move up a couple of places in the bowl pecking order.

Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio is going to have to learn how to change or else he could be on his way toward retirement.  Dantonio is one of the lone holdovers to horse and buggy football.  Michigan State plays like it is still 1975, and the team that rushes for 200 yards and holds the other to less than 100 yards is going to win with relative ease.  That’s not how teams win these days.  If Sparty loses this game, there is a better than 50-50 chance that they will not get six wins or go to a bowl.  Even if they win this game, they may only be able to garner the lowly Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit.

 

Louisville (5-3) at Miami (Fla.) (5-4)–FS1

Louisville coach Scott Satterfield should receive some votes for ACC Coach of the Year, as the Cardinals were picked to finish last in the Atlantic Division, and they are most likely going to be bowl eligible.

Miami still has a small chance to win the Coastal Division, but a lot of things have to happen to make that a reality.  First and foremost is that the Hurricanes win their last three games.

The winner of this game becomes bowl eligible, and you should get the best from both teams, which will make this exciting enough to put an auxiliary monitor on this game.

 

4:00 PM EST

 

 

Iowa (6-2) at Wisconsin (6-2)–Fox

Minnesota has not clinched the West Division in the Big Ten, so the winner of this game remains in contention for the flag, since both must still play the Gophers.  If Penn State wins the 12:00 game, then whoever wins this one will get a chance to play Minnesota for first place later in November.

Expect a hard-fought, defensive struggle in this one, and the weather is expected to be cold and windy.  If you like the old blood and guts games of the 1950’s (yes, we know we have some gray-haired readers), then this is the game for you.  It could be one of those 12-10 games.

 

 

7:30 PM EST

 

 

Tennessee (4-5) at Kentucky (4-4)–SEC Network

How about a career saving resurrection?  Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt was one step out the door in Knoxville a month ago.  At 1-4 with losses at home to Georgia State and BYU, the Vols looked like a potentially 2-10 or possible 1-11 team.

Tennessee was reborn after a blowout loss to Georgia.  Wins over Mississippi State, South Carolina, and UAB, and a loss to Alabama that was still in doubt into the fourth quarter has the Vols on the verge of becoming bowl eligible.

Kentucky began the season strong enough to contend for a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  Losing quarterback Terry Wilson probably cost the Wildcats two, possibly three wins to date, and Kentucky’s defense is not strong enough to hold Tennessee below 20 points in Lexington.  Can the Wildcats find some offense that they have not been able to find without Wilson under center?  A loss here will put the K-Cats under .500, but with Vanderbilt and UT-Martin following this game, the blue and white can still get to 6-6.

 

8:00 PM EST

 

 

Iowa State (5-3) at Oklahoma (7-1)–Fox

The last time Iowa State came to Norman, the Cyclones pulled off a major upset.  If they want to make the Big 12 Championship Game, they will have to do it again.  Of course, Oklahoma is coming off a bye week following their upset loss to Kansas State, so the Sooners are likely to play their best game of the season.

The question is, can Oklahoma’s defense stop Iowa State’s offense, and can the Sooners score at least 38 points in this game?

There’s another little issue in this game.  Oklahoma has a date at Baylor next week.  Even coming off a loss and a bye week, some of the Sooners may have a hard time thinking about Iowa State with the undefeated Bears coming up next week.  This should be an exciting game, especially under the lights at Owen Field.

 

 

10:15 PM EST

 

 

Wyoming (6-2) at Boise St. (7-1)–ESPN

Boise State has been a bit off in October and November.  The Broncos are not likely to earn the Group of 5 bid to a NY6 bowl, and they are now playing for their lives in the Mountain Division of the Mountain West.

Wyoming is a no-nonsense hard-hitting team that can wear teams down in the second half.  The Cowboys have enough talent to go to the Field of Blue and move into first place in the division.  If you are a night owl and stay up late on Saturday night watching games from the Rockies and West Coast, this is definitely one you should plan to watch.  Wyoming is coming into this game looking like they are sitting on their best production in the next few weeks.  We have this sneaky suspicion that the Cowboys will be in the lead in the fourth quarter in this game.

 

 

10:30 PM EST

 

 

Nevada (5-4) at San Diego St. (7-1)–ESPN2

San Diego State is in first place in the West Division of the Mountain West, but the Aztecs must play Nevada, Fresno State, and Hawaii in successive weeks, so even though Nevada is just 2-3 in conference play, the Wolf Pack are still alive in the division race.  This should be a relatively close game, and it could be decided on a late turnover or big play.  If you can stay up until 1:45 on the East Coast, you may be rewarded with some excitement to end your college football fix.

March 5, 2017

Conference Tournament Update–Sunday, March 5, 2017

First Ticket Punched

Welcome Jacksonville State to the giant Dance Studio of March.  The Gamecocks have been a small football factory at the FCS level, noted for upsetting Ole Miss and almost knocking off Auburn in recent years.  As a basketball member of Division 1, JSU has never been a contender for the NCAA Tournament.  In fact, in a score of seasons at the D1 level, the school has produced just four overall winning records with no conference championships.

Last year, the Gamecocks finished just 8-23 and parted ways with Coach James Green.  Enter Coach Ray Harper, who had just resigned from Western Kentucky following a WKU School suspension of three key players.  Harper came to JSU with two Division II national titles, two NAIA national titles, and two D1 NCAA appearances while with the Hilltoppers.

Even with such a stellar resume, not even Coach K himself could have made the so-called media experts select the Gamecocks to finish first in the Ohio Valley Conference this year, nor even make the upper half of the standings.  JSU was a consensus 12th-place pick out of 12 teams in the league.

Not only did Harper guide the Gamecocks well above last place, he took JSU to a winning record in the league and winning record overall.  Then, he upset top-seed Belmont to make it to the OVC Championship Game, where the Gamecocks looked like they were definitely the best team in the league at this point of the season.

Jacksonville State thus becomes team number one in the NCAA Tournament with an overall record of 20-14.  They are likely to be a #16 seed and at best a #15, but they will not lay down and allow a #1 seed to walk all over them.  Expect a tough fight from these Gamecocks.

 

Three More Tickets Issued Today

By the end of the day, there will be a quartet of teams in the Field of 68.  Surprise 7th-seed Campbell (17-16) faces a challenging task, as the Camels must go to top-seed Winthrop (25-6) to decide the Big South Championship.  That game will air on ESPN at 1:00PM Eastern Time.  If Campbell wins, the Camels are virtually assured of knowing they will have to go to Dayton for a First Four game.  If Winthrop wins, the Eagles just might move up to a 13-seed and should be no worse than a 14-seed, and a formidable one at that.

 

An hour later, the finale of Arch Madness (Missouri Valley Conference) tips off on CBS, and the top two seeds have made it to the championship round for their rubber game grudge match.  Top-seed Illinois State (27-5) is actually an underdog to second-seed Wichita State (29-4) and for good reason.  The Shockers look as strong at this point of the season as they did when they advanced to the Final Four a few years back.  Coach Greg Marshall’s WSU team has won 14 games in a row, including an incredible 41-point win over ISU four weeks ago.  Some bracketologists believe that the loser of this game could move outside of the good part of the bubble, but most of our Bracketology Gurus have the Valley sending both teams to the Dance.

 

At 3:00 PM Eastern today, the Atlantic Sun Title Game will tip off in a game between rivals from the Sunshine State.  3-seed North Florida (15-18) visits perennial league champion and top-seed Florida Gulf Coast (25-7).  The two teams played in Fort Myers at the end of January, and FGCU pulled away in the second half to win by 15 thanks to a hot night from guard Brandon Goodwin.  In a semifinal win at 2-seed Lipscomb, you might have been confused and thought that the names on the back of the UNF jerseys read, “Curry,” “Harden,” and “Korver,” as the Ospreys hit three-pointer after three-pointer to pull away from Lipscomb quickly.  They will have to have a repeat performance to have a chance to upset FGCU today.

 

Have We Got Offense For You

We are true hardwood junkies here on the PiRate Ship.  And, we keep a close watch on all the low and mid-major conferences, where there are teams operating under the radar and not getting any national publicity.  If you really love basketball and especially love the style of play that was prevalent in the 1960s and 1970s, when teams raced up and down the floor with 80-possession games, then there is a must watch game for you tonight.

In the Summit League, at 9:30 PM Eastern Time, Fort Wayne will take on Omaha in a quarterfinal match.  The last time these two teams squared off, Ft. Wayne won 108-101 in overtime, and there is no reason to think tonight’s game will be much different.  That 45-minute game saw both teams accumulate 91 possessions, and even if they only play 40 minutes tonight, they could easily top 80 possessions apiece.

 

The Inaugural Ivy League Tournament Is Finally Set

Call us snobbish or traditional, but most of us buckaroos and buckarettes here really like the Ivy League basketball season.  Our head Captain here can remember Bill Bradley playing at Princeton and Jim McMillan playing at Columbia, and he has followed this league like he is the commissioner himself.

Last night, Penn upset Harvard, while Columbia fell to Yale.  The Lions could not protect a five-point second half lead, and then after Yale took a four-point lead, Columbia fought back to tie the game with less than 90 seconds to go.  A missed three-pointer when there was a possible high-percentage two-pointer available led to Yale getting the rebound with the lead in the final minute, and the Bulldogs then held onto the ball, forcing Columbia to foul.  Unfortunately for the Lions, they had yet to put Yale in the bonus, and they did not force the seventh foul until there were less than five seconds remaining.  Miye Oni hit both foul shots for Yale to put the dagger in CU’s hopes.

So, the first ever Ivy League Tournament will feature top-seed Princeton, who went a perfect 14-0 in the league facing fourth-seed Penn in one semifinal match, while Harvard and Yale meet in the other semifinal.  If the Ivy League had wanted to script the perfect first ever tournament, they would have wanted it exactly like this.  Two sets of arch-rivals with the weakest of the four teams hosting the thing at the most venerable Eastern gymnasium, the Palestra.  Hey Ivy League brass–we are waiting for our media pass!  We’ll sit anywhere and even move the dust mop across the floor at halftime and during timeouts.

Today’s Tournament Schedule (by Conference)

Time Network Conference Team vs. Team
3:00 PM ESPN A_Sun TITLE Florida Gulf Coast vs. North Florida
1:00 PM ESPN B-South TITLE Winthrop vs. Campbell
2:00 PM Comcast SN Colonial UNC-Wilmington vs. William & Mary
4:30 PM Comcast SN Colonial College of Charleston vs. Northeastern
5:00 PM ESPN3 Horizon Green Bay vs. Illinois-Chicago
7:30 PM ESPN3 Horizon Northern Kentucky vs. Wright St.
4:30 PM ESPN3 MAAC Monmouth vs. Siena
7:00 PM ESPN3 MAAC St. Peter’s vs. Iona
2:00 PM CBS MVC  TITLE Illinois St. vs. Wichita St.
12:00 PM CBSSN Patriot Boston U vs. Lehigh
2:00 PM CBSSN Patriot Bucknell vs. Navy
5:00 PM ESPN3 SoCon UNC-Greensboro vs. Wofford
7:30 PM ESPN3 SoCon East Tennessee St. vs. Samford
7:00 PM ESPN3 Summit South Dakota St. vs. Denver
9:30 PM ESPN3 Summit Omaha vs. Fort Wayne

Schedule by Tip-off Time

Time Network Conference Team vs. Team
12:00 PM CBSSN Patriot Boston U vs. Lehigh
1:00 PM ESPN Big South Winthrop vs. Campbell
2:00 PM Comcast SN Colonial UNC-Wilmington vs. William & Mary
2:00 PM CBS MVC Illinois St. vs. Wichita St.
2:00 PM CBSSN Patriot Bucknell vs. Navy
3:00 PM ESPN Atlantic Sun Florida Gulf Coast vs. North Florida
4:30 PM Comcast SN Colonial College of Charleston vs. Northeastern
4:30 PM ESPN3 MAAC Monmouth vs. Siena
5:00 PM ESPN3 Horizon Green Bay vs. Illinois-Chicago
5:00 PM ESPN3 SoCon UNC-Greensboro vs. Wofford
7:00 PM ESPN3 MAAC St. Peter’s vs. Iona
7:00 PM ESPN3 Summit South Dakota St. vs. Denver
7:30 PM ESPN3 Horizon Northern Kentucky vs. Wright St.
7:30 PM ESPN3 SoCon East Tennessee St. vs. Samford
9:30 PM ESPN3 Summit Omaha vs. Fort Wayne

Coming Tomorrow: An updated Bracketology Gurus report plus all the tournament brackets and the schedule of games for Monday.

March 14, 2011

2011 PiRate NCAA Basketball Tournament Preview

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:01 pm

1. Which teams meet the upper range criteria in every category?  That means they outscored their opponents by eight or more per game; their field goal percentage was greater than 7.5% better than their opponents; they outrebounded their opponents by five or more per game; they forced at least three more turnovers per game than they committed; and they stole the ball 7.5 or more times per game.

 

ANSWER—No teams this year meet all the perfect criteria described above.  Six teams come close to meeting the perfect criteria, but all fall short in at least one statistic.  This means there is no clear-cut favorite—only six teams that most closely resemble the great champions of the past.  Of the six, three come from power conferences.  These three are Kansas, Ohio State, and Syracuse.

 

Kansas fails to meet the turnover margin requirement, but the Jayhawks surpass all the other qualifications.  Ohio State comes up a tad bit short in field goal percentage margin, rebounding margin, and steals per game, but just misses in all three.  Syracuse misses in rebounding and turnover margin, but they Orangemen do not miss by much. 

 

2. Which teams can be immediately eliminated due to a negative R+T rating?  Which teams have an incredibly low R+T Rating (<2.0)?

 

ANSWER—Three teams can immediately be eliminated due to negative R+T Ratings.  It comes as no surprise that Alabama State and Texas-San Antonio, two teams facing off in the First Round in Dayton, have negative R+T ratings.  The third team is Michigan.  The Wolverines were outrebounded by 1.9 boards per game, and they only had a +1.4 turnover margin with just 4.7 steals per game.

 

Five other teams finished with R+T ratings less than 2.0.  This usually means one and done for these teams, unless they have outstanding FG% margins or cupcake opponents with worse criteria numbers.  Those five teams are: Penn State, Richmond, St. Peter’s, UCLA, and UCSB.

 

3. Which teams are capable of winning it all?

 

ANSWER—We separate the contenders from the pretenders by looking at the total PiRate Criteria score and then looking to see if the high criteria scoring teams receive merit on every individual statistic.

 

Last year, Duke was head and heels better than the other 64 teams.  The Blue Devils had the highest score overall, and they satisfactorily rated in every PiRate category.

 

No teams appear to be as strong this year as the Blue Devils were last year, but nine teams meet most of the minimum requirements to be considered Final Four contenders this year.

 

It should come as no surprise that the top two teams, Ohio State and Kansas, rank at the top in the Criteria.  Kansas actually has the highest score of the 68 teams, a score of 23.  The Jayhawks outscored their opposition by 17.2 points, shot 11.7% better from the field than their opponents, and outrebounded their opponents by 7.8 boards per game.  These stats are worthy of a powerhouse.  However, KU enjoyed just a 0.9 turnover margin and stole the ball 7.9 times per game, giving the Jayhawks an R+T Rating of 9.5.  We tend to look for teams with an R+T Rating in excess of 10, so KU is not a great favorite to go all the way. 

 

Ohio State’s total Criteria score is 21, good for second best.  However, the Buckeyes enjoy an R+T Rating of 13.2, which is a number we really like in a Final Four contender.  This number correlates to 13 extra scoring opportunities that their opposition does not receive.  OSU outscores their opponents by 17.3 points per game, shot 6.9% better from the field than they allows, outrebounded their opponents by 4.9 per game, had a turnover margin of +4.8, and stole the ball 7.2 times per game. 

 

San Diego State comes in third with 19 total criteria points.  BYU, Pittsburgh, and Texas come in next with 18 points; the Panthers have an R+T rating above 10.  The other three teams with PiRate Criteria scores showing themselves to be strong contenders for a Final Four berth are Syracuse, Purdue, and Duke

 

Florida, North Carolina, and UNLV are actually almost in a statistical tie with Duke, meaning those three are dark horse candidates for the Final Four.

 

Overall, this is the weakest field by far in the six tournaments where we have ranked the teams according to our criteria.  Looking back, this could be the weakest field since the tournament expanded to 64 teams. 

 

North Carolina State, Kansas, and Villanova won national titles in the past with less than stellar numbers.  We do not have all the statistics from those years, so we cannot really calculate criteria numbers for those three champions.  Could this be a season in which one team gets hot for six games and comes from out of the pack to win it all?  It could happen, but we are sticking with this mechanical system and going with its results.  Kansas, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, and Texas appear to be the best PiRate Criteria matches to past Final Four teams, and they are the quartet we officially pick to make it to Houston.  Syracuse becomes the wildcard team that could sneak into the mix.

 

Here is a look at the First Four Round One games and the 32 second round games.  The number in (parentheses) represents the PiRate Bracketnomics criteria number.

 

First Four Round

 

#16 Texas-San Antonio 19-13 (Elim) vs. #16 Alabama State 17-17 (Elim)

At first, we thought this was highly ironic, but upon further review, we consider it sort of a compliment.  These two teams both must be eliminated based on negative R+T ratings.  Of course, one of them must win this game so that they can advance to a 25-point or more loss in the next round.

 

Most of you filling out your brackets do not have to worry about these games in Dayton.  You get to turn in your choices after these games have been played.

 

UTSA has better criteria numbers after you factor out both teams’ R+T numbers. 

 

Prediction: Texas-San Antonio 64  Alabama State 55

 

 

#12 U A B 22-8 (2) vs. #12 Clemson 21-11 (1)

If you have been following the “experts” since the pairings were announced Sunday evening, then you know that these two teams do not belong in the tournament in their opinion.  It is not our mission statement to declare which teams should and should not have been included in the Big Dance, but we will tell you that Harvard and Saint Mary’s enjoyed Criteria scores several points better than these two teams, while Colorado and Virginia Tech had equal numbers to these two.

 

This game should be as close as the criteria scores show.  UAB has a one-point advantage in the criteria, but the Blazers just do not excel in any stage of the game.  Clemson’s strong point is forcing turnovers by way of steals, and that leads to a lot of cheap baskets.  Cheap baskets pay off big time in the NCAA Tournament, so we will take the Tigers in this one.

 

Prediction: Clemson 74  UAB 67

 

#11 Southern Cal 19-14 (-1) vs. #11 Virginia Commonwealth 23-11 (-1)

The winner of this game is going home two days later.  Neither team merits inclusion in the Big Dance this year. 

 

Southern Cal has no apparent weakness according to the PiRate Criteria.  In fact, they have a great resume—for an NIT team.

 

The Trojans outscore their opponents by four points per game, and they outshoot them by 3.3%.  They have a small rebounding margin of 1.2, and they have an even smaller turnover margin of 0.6.  They average six steals per game and have a R+T rating of 2.1.  On top of these modest numbers, their schedule was average.

 

VCU is much in the same boat as USC with two exceptions.  They have a negative turnover margin, but they also average 8.5 steals per game.

 

The only other difference in these teams is their records away from home.  USC won only 41% of their games, while VCU won 60%.

 

This one is quite tough to pick, but we will go with the Trojans due to their superior inside talent.  We expect USC to win the rebounding edge by at least five.

 

Prediction: Southern Cal  65  V C U  60

 

#16 UNC-Asheville 19-13 (-5) vs. #16 Arkansas-Little Rock 19-16 (-13)

Obviously, we have two teams that would not even merit NIT bids had they lost in the championship games of their conference tournaments.  UALR has one of the lowest Criteria Scores in the seven years we have been calculating this data.

 

UNC-Asheville actually has a couple of positive Criteria stats.  Their R+T is 5.5, which had it come against a more difficult schedule, would have made them worthy of becoming a possible team to watch in the Round of 64.

 

We will go with UNCA here, as schedule strength is about the same for both teams.

 

Prediction: UNC-Asheville 69  Arkansas-Little Rock 59

 

 

Second-Round Games

 

East Regional

 

#1 Ohio State 32-2 (21) vs. #16 UTSA (Elim)/Alabama State (Elim)

This game will be over quickly.  There will be no scare, not even for two TV timeouts.  The second highest Criteria score versus one of the teams with an R+T Rating of “Eliminate.”

 

The Buckeyes outscored their opponents by more than 17 points per game.  Their strength of schedule was 13 points better than UTSA and 16 points better than Alabama State. 

 

We will go under the theory that UTSA will be the opponent in this game.  Using our Criteria Rating, Ohio State figures to be 30-40 points better than UTSA.  Coach Thad Matta will definitely empty his bench early in this game, so the Buckeyes may “only win” by 25-30. 

 

Prediction: Ohio State 78  Texas-San Antonio 50

 

#8 George Mason 26-6 (8) vs. #9 Villanova 21-11 (5)

George Mason is the higher seed in this game, so if they win, it cannot really be considered an upset.

 

Villanova was on course to be a four-seed when the Wildcats were 16-5 and contending for the Big East Conference regular season title.  The Wildcats could not compete down low against the more physical teams in their league.

 

George Mason has a higher PiRate Criteria Score, but it is not an insurmountable advantage.  The key stat for this game is the R+T Rating.  For GMU, it is 6.8.  For VU, it is 4.9.  Considering that Villanova played a harder schedule, these numbers basically cancel each other out, thus making this a tossup game.

 

There are two variables to consider here.  George Mason performed much better on the road, and Villanova is banged up a bit.

 

Prediction: George Mason 66  Villanova 62

 

#5 West Virginia 20-11 (6) vs. #12 UAB (2)/Clemson (1)

We believe the Mountaineers will be facing Clemson in this game, but the prediction will hold up if they play UAB. 

 

West Virginia is not as good this season as last season, and the Mountaineers will not advance to the Final Four, or even the Elite Eight.  They are liable to be out by the end of the weekend.  However, they are strong enough to get into the Round of 32. 

 

The Mountaineers best attribute is that they put up decent numbers against one of the toughest schedules in the country.  Of the NCAA Tournament teams, only Georgetown played a tougher schedule.  They will have to limit turnovers, or else this game will be close and go down to the wire.  We believe Coach Bob Huggins will be able to keep the pace at a level he likes and not allow Clemson (or UAB) to force the Mountaineers into enough mistakes to turn the tide.

 

Prediction: West Virginia 69  Clemson 62 (Or UAB 58)

 

#4 Kentucky 25-8 (14) vs. #13 Princeton 25-6 (-2)

Princeton has pulled off the big upset in the past, and they came within a missed jumper at the buzzer of becoming the only #16 seed to beat a #1 seed.  However, that was two decades ago.  The Tigers have not been to the NCAA Tournament in seven years, and that big win over UCLA was 15 years ago. 

 

Kentucky is not the type of team that will allow Princeton’s style of play to affect their style of play.  The Wildcats should actually play better than their norm with fewer mistakes. 

 

We believe that Princeton will actually crumble under relentless man-to-man pressure and turn the ball over enough times in the opening minutes of the game to allow the Wildcats to open a quick double-digit lead.  This group of Cats tends to fiddle around a little once they get a quick double-digit lead and then play uninspired ball until the opponent makes a run.  Then, they go on the attack at the right time and put the game away.

 

Adolph Rupp had a team just like this in 1958.  They were called “The Fiddlin’ Five.”  They were also called National Champions.  We won’t go so far as to put UK into this category, but we will advance the Wildcats into the next round and then into the Sweet 16.

 

Prediction: Kentucky 72  Princeton 59

 

#6 Xavier 24-7 (8) vs. #11 Marquette 20-14 (3)

If you are looking for a tough, hard-fought game with two Midwestern teams, then tune into this game Friday evening.

 

If the Musketeers were a little more competent at forcing turnovers, they could be a dark horse candidate to advance to the Elite Eight.  XU shoots the ball well and plays well on defense when it comes to preventing a lot of easy shots.  They do well on the boards, and against a team that cannot exploit their ball-handling and ball-hawking deficiencies, they will hold their own inside.  The only other possible problem for the Musketeers is a lack of depth, but in the NCAA Tournaments, TV timeouts are longer.  It is hard to wear a team down with such long breaks every four or so minutes.

 

Marquette does not have enough depth to take advantage of Xavier’s lack of depth, so this factor will become a non-factor.  The Golden Eagles got to this tournament due to their ability to put the ball into the basket.  Marquette needs to shoot better than 46% to win, while Xavier is adept at holding teams under 45% as a rule.

 

Prediction: Xavier 71  Marquette 65

 

#3 Syracuse 26-7 (17) vs. #14 Indiana State 20-13 (-4)

Syracuse has been getting very little national exposure since their 18-0 start ended with an 8-7 finish.  The Orangemen are a team to watch in this tournament.  If not for a pedestrian 71% winning percentage away from the Carrier Dome, we would have them as one of the top four teams in this tournament.

 

Coach Jim Boeheim’s team outscores their opposition by 10.3 points per game; they outshoot them by 7.6%, and they outrebound them by 3.6 boards per game.  Their turnover margin is +1.9, and they averaged almost nine steals per game.  Their R+T Rating is 7.6, and their Strength of Schedule is somewhere between above-average and very good.  This is the Criteria Score of a team that will advance to the Sweet 16 and compete for an Elite Eight and Final Four berth.

 

Indiana State needs the return of Larry Bird to win this game.  They are too perimeter-oriented.  The Sycamores do not have the beef down low to contend in the paint, and even though Syracuse plays a 2-3 zone, teams rarely beat the Orangemen by firing up 25 long-range bombs.

 

This one smells like a blowout.

 

Prediction: Syracuse 81  Indiana State 62

 

#7 Washington 23-10 (13) vs. #10 Georgia 21-11 (2)

Washington is one of those teams that can play with anybody in this tournament—when they are playing up to their potential.  The Huskies could also exit in the first round if they play like they did the weekend they went to Oregon and Oregon State.

 

Georgia is much more consistent, but their best effort will not defeat the Huskies’ best effort.

 

Washington lacked the seasoned experience this season, and it showed when they ventured away from Seattle.  The Huskies lost to weaker opponents because they lacked the composure to win on foreign courts.  That changed when they arrived in Los Angeles for the Pac-10 Tournament.  Isaiah Thomas took over command of the team and led them to the tournament title.  This makes UW a scary and dangerous team capable of returning to the Sweet 16.

 

Georgia must really dominate the glass in this game, because we believe they will turn the ball over too many times against UW’s pressure man-to-man defense.  It is our opinion that the Bulldogs will play a little timidly at the start of this game and find themselves in a hole.

 

The Bulldogs had trouble against Alabama’s defense, and Washington is similar but with a much better offense.

 

Prediction: Washington 78  Georgia 70

 

#2 North Carolina 26-7 (15) vs. #15 Long Island 27-5 (-1)

 

Long Island is just the type of team that can forget that their opponent is a dynasty program that chews up and spits out little programs like this.

 

Teams from Brooklyn don’t intimidate easily, especially when they are led by a trio of Texans.  So, LIU will not be intimidated, but will they be talented enough to make a game of this contest?

 

That’s the rub.  They lack the defensive ability to slow down the Tar Heels, while Coach Roy Williams’ team will be able to hold the Blackbirds under their scoring average.  The big problem for LIU will be holding onto the ball, and we could see North Carolina forcing 20 turnovers in this game.  When the Tar Heels force more turnovers than they commit, they are almost unbeatable.  This game could be interesting for a short time, but it will eventually get out of hand.

 

Prediction: North Carolina 88  Long Island 70

 

West Regional

 

#1 Duke 30-4 (15) vs. #16 Hampton 24-8 (-8)

Duke has nothing to worry about here.  This will be like one of their November/December home games where they quickly put the cupcake away with a barrage of power and speed.  You know the type: a 37-point win over Princeton; a 34-point win over Miami of Ohio; a 52-point win over Colgate.

 

Hampton got to the Dance using an aggressive defense and three-point shooting barrage on offense.  Duke will not be affected by the defensive pressure, and they will cut off the open shots from the outside.  It will be a mercy killing, and it will be quick.  Look for the Blue Devils to be up by more than 15 points before the halfway point of the first half.  By the time Coach K empties the bench, the Blue Devils should be up by 25-30 points.

 

Prediction: Duke 81  Hampton 61

 

#8 Michigan 20-13 (Elim) vs. #9 Tennessee 19-14 (10)

Michigan is the highest-rated team that fails to meet our R+T Rating requirement, so the Wolverines are automatically tabbed as a first-round loser.

 

Coach Jim Beilein has been in a similar position before.  He guided a West Virginia team with not-so-flashy Criteria numbers to the Elite Eight, where they forced Louisville to come from 20 points down to rally for the victory.  That WVU team had one of the worst negative rebounding numbers of any team in Elite Eight history, but that team made few mistakes and had a nice turnover margin.

 

This Michigan team was only outrebounded by two a game, but they do not create enough extra possessions with their miniscule turnover margin of 1.4 and their average of just 4.7 steals per game.

 

Tennessee has been up and down, and the Volunteers are not going to make a repeat run to the Elite Eight this year.  However, Coach Bruce Pearl’s troops will control the boards in this game and maybe force more turnovers than they commit.  We figure that Tennessee will have 10 more opportunities to score in this game, and that is too many for the Wolverines to make up with their three-point shooting.

 

Prediction: Tennessee 74  Michigan 69

 

#5 Arizona 27-7 (3) vs. #12 Memphis 25-9 (-1)

Memphis was not going to earn an at-large bid this season had they failed to win the Conference USA Tournament.  They received an ideal first round opponent, and the Tigers actually have a fighting chance to pull off yet another classic #12-seed over #5-seed upset.

 

Arizona needs to pound the ball inside and rely on numerous offensive rebounds to win this game.  Other teams might be able to exploit Memphis’s poor ball-handling skills, but the Wildcats do not have the defensive acumen to take advantage here.

 

Memphis will try to make this an up-tempo game where they can neutralize Arizona’s height advantage inside.  It has a chance of working, but Arizona probably has too much power inside and just enough quickness to stop the Tigers’ transition game.

 

Prediction: Arizona 76  Memphis 69

 

#4 Texas 27-7 (18) vs. #13 Oakland 25-9 (3)

This has become a popular upset pick in the media.  Oakland has generated a lot of positive press, and many “experts” are calling for the upset in this game.  We are not one of them.  Not only do we believe the Longhorns will take care of Oakland with relative ease in this game, we believe Texas is a force to be reckoned with in the next two or three rounds. 

 

Let’s look at Texas’ Criteria Rating.  At 18, the ‘Horns rate as our sixth best team in the tournament.  They have a 13.5 point scoring margin, a 7.1% field goal margin, a 6.6 rebounding margin, and a 1.2 turnover margin.  Their only Achilles Heel is a low amount of steals resulting in a R+T Rating of 8.3.  Had that number been above 10, we would be selecting Coach Rick Barnes’ team for the Final Four.

 

Oakland won this year with strong rebounding and an excellent ability to force their opponents into bad shots.  Center Keith Benson is a future NBA player, but he is not enough to propel the Golden Grizzlies into the next round.

 

Prediction: Texas 77  Oakland 65

 

#6 Cincinnati 25-8 (9) vs. #11 Missouri 23-9 (10)

On paper, this looks like the best game of this round between a team with contrasting styles.

 

Cincinnati is one of the top defensive teams in the tournament.  The Bearcats are tough inside, and they have quality depth to continue playing hard in the paint. 

 

Missouri uses the “40 minutes of Hell” approach that Coach Mike Anderson learned under his mentor Nolan Richardson.  The Tigers press full court and run the fast break as often as they get the chance.  They are perimeter-oriented and can score a lot of points in a hurry.

 

When we try to decide tossup games, we look to the all-important defense and rebounding stats, since that is what wins close games in the Big Dance. 

 

Missouri is vulnerable in both of these crucial areas.  They have given up a lot of cheap baskets this year when teams solved their press.  The Tigers were outrebounded by 1.7 boards per game.

 

Cincinnati owns a +2.7 rebounding margin, and the Bearcats held onto the ball quite competently.  We believe Coach Mick Cronin’s crew will advance.

 

Prediction: Cincinnati 68  Missouri 65

 

#3 Connecticut 26-9 (9) vs. #14 Bucknell 25-8 (-4)

Ask Kansas Coach Bill Self if it is wise to underestimate Bucknell.  The Bison know how to hold onto the ball and work for intelligent shots.  Give them an opening, and they can bury you with a high field goal percentage.

 

Connecticut did the unthinkable by winning five games in five days.  Their defense does not get the merit it deserves, because Kemba Walker gets more attention for his offensive antics.  The Huskies actually held teams under 40% from the field.

 

Coach Jim Calhoun knows how to prepare a team for tournament action.  He will have UConn ready for this game, and the Huskies will not overlook the Bison.

 

Prediction: Connecticut 73  Bucknell 58

 

#7 Temple 25-7 (5) vs. #10 Penn State 19-14 (-1)

Temple’s score must be tempered by the fact that they are a wounded team coming into this tournament.  Two starters suffered injuries late in the season, and one is out for the remainder of the year, while the other may or may not be ready to play.  We must throw out Temple’s score of “5” in the PiRate Criteria, because 40% of the key players that produced that number will either not play or be greatly less effective.

 

Penn State is a lot like Southern Cal in this tournament.  The Nittany Lions have the look of a strong NIT team.  Aside from a so-so record against a strong schedule, they really have little to offer outside of one star player. 

 

We believe this Keystone State rivalry game will be close, and it could come down to the last shot.  Because the Owls are limping, we will go with the Big Ten representative.

 

Prediction: Penn State 59  Temple 56

 

#2 San Diego State 32-2 (19) vs. #15 Northern Colorado 21-10 (-6)

Most of you reading this probably cannot remember Texas Western University, but you may have scene the movie where the Miners were too quick for Kentucky and pulled off the big upset to win the 1966 National Championship.  Maybe some of you remember the Long Beach State 49ers ascension into the top 10 under Jerry Tarkanian and then Lute Olson.  Still more can remember when Tark the Shark moved to UNLV and turned the Runnin’ Rebels into a national power.

 

San Diego State is the next Western team to fit this bill.  The Aztecs are legitimate contenders to advance deep into this tournament.  They have few exploitable weaknesses, and they are the best team West of the Rockies.  Coach Steve Fisher knows how to get teams ready for tournament play, as he has three Final Fours on his resume and one National Championship.

 

SDSU’s PiRate Criteria numbers are flashy.  Their scoring margin is 13.3 points per game.  Their FG% margin is 7.1%.  They outrebound their opposition by almost seven per game, and they force 1.6 more turnovers than they commit.  Their one weak spot is a pedestrian 6.2 steals average.  If they run up against a more powerful team inside, they could have trouble getting enough extra scoring opportunities.

 

Northern Colorado will not be one of those teams that can cause trouble for the Aztecs.  The Bears are a good rebounding team, but their rebounding prowess came against a schedule that rates 10 points weaker than San Diego State’s schedule.

 

Prediction: San Diego State 73  Northern Colorado 51

 

Southwest Regional

#1 Kansas 32-2 (23) vs. #16 Boston U 21-13 (-11)

Kansas is a team on a mission.  The Jayhawks will not allow a repeat of what happened last year, and that extra incentive should be enough to send KU to Houston.

 

Kansas has the top PiRate Criteria Score this year.  They meet the basic requirements that most prior National Champions have met—scoring margin: 17.2; FG% margin: 11.7; Rebounding margin: 7.8; Turnover Margin: 0.9; Steals per game: 7.9; R+T Ratings: 9.5.

 

How do you beat this year’s KU team?  Kansas State and Texas pulled it off by matching up well inside and going head-to-head with them in the paint.

 

Boston U has the second lowest PiRate Criteria score of the 65 teams that have positive R+T Ratings.  The Terriers are way overmatched in this game, and they will have to be glad they just made it here.

 

Prediction: Kansas 90  Boston U 62

 

#8 U N L V 24-8 (15) vs. #9 Illinois 19-13 (1)

If our ratings are worth their salt, then this game should not be all that close.  UNLV may be just the third best team in the Mountain West, but the MWC was better overall this year than the Pac-10.  Third best in the MWC makes the Runnin’ Rebels one of the dozen or so teams capable of making a two weekend run.

 

Coach Lon Kruger has taken two different teams to the Elite Eight (Kansas State and Florida).  His teams play intelligently without being flashy.

 

UNLV went 24-3 against teams not named Brigham Young or San Diego State.  They are not particularly strong on the boards, and this will eventually be their downfall.  The Rebels shoot the ball brilliantly, and they alter enough opponent shots to force a lower field goal percentage.  They also take care of the ball and do not make a lot of floor mistakes.

 

Illinois is an inconsistent, underachieving team.  This can be dangerous for the prognosticator, because it is difficult if not impossible to predict which schizophrenic state will appear for each game.

 

The Illini are not particularly strong on the glass or at taking care of the ball, and that is a recipe for disaster when the opponent is as good as UNLV.  Even if Illinois comes out playing their best basketball, it may not be enough to beat UNLV playing their typical game.

 

Prediction: U N L V  72  Illinois 64

 

#5 Vanderbilt 23-10 (5) vs. #12 Richmond 26-7 (2)

Here is another game getting a lot of attention due to its upset potential.  Historically, the #12 seed produces the a lot of great upsets.

 

This game could go either way.  Both teams have exploitable weaknesses, and it just so happens that both teams’ have the assets capable of exploiting the other’s weaknesses.

 

Let’s start with Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are not particularly strong on the defensive perimeter.  Worthy opponents have been able to beat them off the drive and get a lot of open inside shots.  This weak perimeter defense has also led to frontcourt players having to help, thus leaving open holes near the basket.

 

Richmond’s offense is a modified version of the Princeton Offense.  The Spiders have the talent to get open shots inside and in the five to ten-foot range.

 

Richmond cannot rebound against more physical teams.  The Spiders make up for their rebounding liabilities by seldom throwing the ball away.

 

Vanderbilt has an excellent physical presence inside with three beefy players that can rebound the ball on offense and defense.

 

So, which team gets the edge in our PiRate Ratings?  We always look to defense in rebounding in tossup games.  Vanderbilt holds the rebounding edge, while Richmond holds the defensive edge.  It is basically a wash, so we have to look elsewhere.  While Richmond has been much better away from home, Vanderbilt’s schedule is seven points more difficult.  We’ll go with the power conference team, but not by much

 

Prediction: Vanderbilt 70  Richmond 67

 

#4 Louisville 25-9 (12) vs. #13 Morehead State 24-9 (3)

This should be an interesting game, but in the end the big brothers are going to defeat their little brothers in this battle of two Bluegrass State teams.

 

40 years ago this week, another little brother upset a big brother on their way to a surprise appearance in the Final Four (later vacated).  In 1971, Western Kentucky did not just upset Kentucky, the Hilltoppers ran the Wildcats off the floor.  Can there be a repeat two score later?  No!

 

Coach Rick Pitino’s Cardinals are vulnerable on the boards, and Morehead State has the nation’s best rebounder in the nation in Kenneth Faried.  However, the Eagles do not have enough talent or depth to keep up with Louisville.  They may emerge with a slight rebounding edge in this game, but it will not be enough to make up for all the open shots the Cardinals will get.

 

Louisville is going to run into trouble when they meet up with a team that can rebound and play credible defense.  That would be Kansas in the Sweet 16.  Until then, they have a relatively easy route to the Sweet 16.

 

Prediction: Louisville 78  Morehead State 62

 

#6 Georgetown 21-10 (8) vs. #11 Southern Cal (-1)/Va. Commonwealth (-1)

Last year, we discussed Georgetown’s vulnerabilities and the probability that they would fail to make it past the first weekend.  We expected the Hoyas to fall as a favorite in their second game, but they were a one and done team.

 

This year’s team is not much better than last year’s Hoya team, but they received a much more favorable draw.

 

Coach John Thompson III’s Hoyas once again have a rather low R+T Rating thanks to a turnover margin of -1.9 and a low amount of steals per game.  They will exit from the tournament in the next round unless there is a monumental upset in their pairing.

 

Neither USC nor VCU has the talent to take advantage of Georgetown’s deficiencies.  The three teams combined have a R+T rating below Purdue’s.

 

One additional note: The Hoyas will be a tad bit better than their Criteria Score in the tournament.  Chris Wright suffered a hand fracture in the middle of the schedule, and he is expected to be near 100% for the tournament.  You have to add maybe one point to their Criteria Score, but that is not enough to put them over the top in their second game.

 

Prediction: Georgetown 69  Southern Cal 61 (or VCU 60)

 

#3 Purdue 25-7 (16) vs. #14 St. Peter’s 20-13 (-7)

If only… Purdue fans will never know just how good their team might have been with Robbie Hummel joining JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore playing together.  This would have been the best Boilermaker team since Rick Mount led Purdue to the Championship Game against UCLA in 1969.

 

The Boilermakers no longer have that one glaring weakness that Gene Keady’s teams had and thus prevented Purdue from getting past the second round.  This team does well on the boards like most of those past Purdue teams, but they are particularly strong when it comes to forcing turnovers and taking advantage by converting steals into points.  It is the way many teams go on runs that put opponents out of commission.

 

St. Peter’s just barely avoided being immediately eliminated with a negative R+T Rating.  They squeaked by at 0.1.  It might as well be a negative number, as the Peacocks were outrebounded by 0.4 per game and had a turnover margin of -0.9 against a schedule that was four points below average and seven points weaker than the schedule Purdue faced.

 

Prediction: Purdue 73  St. Peter’s 56

 

#7 Texas A&M 24-8 (8) vs. #10 Florida State 21-10 (2)

The Big 12’s third best team has enough talent to challenge for a Sweet 16 berth.  We’ll leave the next round for another time and talk about this game.

 

The Aggies have no glaring weakness, and they have a few strengths, namely rebounding and defense (which wins games in the NCAA Tournament).  They are much like Kansas Lite.  A&M was not a team of surprises during the regular season.  They beat the teams they were supposed to beat and failed to upset the teams better than they were.  We expect the trend to continue.  They are better than the Seminoles.

 

Florida State does not take good care of the ball, and that costs them in confrontations against good opponents.  The Seminoles do not play particularly well away from Tallahassee, and they should be making a quick exit from the Dance.

 

Prediction: Texas A&M 73  Florida State 65

 

#2 Notre Dame 26-6 (11) vs. #15 Akron 23-12 (-9)

This is the best Irish team since Digger Phelps led Notre Dame in the late 1980’s.  Throw in the fact that this team has a chip on its shoulders following a first round exit last year, and the Irish have to be considered the Sweet 16 favorite in their four-team pairing this weekend.

 

The Irish finished the regular season with a scoring margin of 10.4 points per game.  Down the stretch, they went 7-2 against teams in this tournament.  The Selection Committee placed Notre Dame in a bracket that should provide a very memorable Sweet 16 contest against one of their most bitter arch-rivals.

 

Akron has a big seven-foot center, but the Zips do not rebound the ball all that well.  Zeke Marshall, the aforementioned big man, concentrates his efforts on blocking shots, and he frequently is not in position to rebound the ball.  So, the blocked shot frequently turns into a made basket off an offensive rebound.  The Zips did not fare well on the road this year, and with a considerably weaker schedule than average, this does not bode well.

 

Prediction:  Notre Dame 81  Akron 57

 

Southeast Regional

#1 Pittsburgh 27-5 (18) vs. #16 UNC-Asheville (-5)/U A L R (-13)

One of us here at the PiRate Ratings might be dating himself, but he sees a lot of the 1962 Cincinnati Bearcats in this year’s Pitt team.  The Panthers have a dominating inside power game that will pulverize any finesse team that cannot hit 10 three-pointers.  Neither UNCA nor UALR has a remote chance to make this game a close contest.

 

Pitt outscored their opposition by 13.1 points per game.  This stat looks even better when you factor in that they compiled this gaudy stat playing in a league that produced 11 NCAA Tournament teams.  The Panthers outshot their opponents by 7.6%, and they totally dominated the glass with a 10.4 rebounding advantage.  If you are thinking the way to beat them is to play a packed in zone, think again.  Ashton Gibbs can bury you from outside with his near 50% three-point accuracy, and Brad Wannamaker can still get the ball inside to one of the bruisers waiting to punish you with a thunder dunk.

 

Only a negative turnover margin prevents the Panthers from being there with Kansas as a co-favorite for winning all the marbles.

 

Pitt’s cupcake opponent will have to be happy with winning their First Four game, because they will be humiliated in this game.

 

Prediction: Pittsburgh 78  UNC-Asheville 54 (or UALR 48)

 

#8 Butler 23-9 (7) vs. #9 Old Dominion 27-6 (10)

This is the second best matchup in this round, and the winner will put a scare into Pittsburgh in the next round and even have a decent shot at the upset.

 

Butler is now the hunted rather than the hunter.  The Bulldogs will not sneak up on anybody this year.  More importantly, they are not as talented as they were last year.  The Bulldogs fared much better on the road last year than this season.  However, down the stretch, Butler started to look like a team proficient enough to get past the first weekend once again.

 

Old Dominion has the talent to advance past the first weekend as well.  The Monarchs are a miniature version of Pittsburgh, the team they would face in the next round should they win this game.

 

ODU is the nation’s number one rebounding team with a +12.2 margin.  The Monarchs’ schedule was not outstanding, but it was on par with several teams from the so-called power conferences, and they finished 6-4 against teams in this tournament.  This is a better ODU team than the one that upset Notre Dame in the first round last year, and this game should be one you do not want to miss.

 

 

Prediction: Old Dominion 72  Butler 70 in overtime

 

#5 Kansas State 22-10 (9) vs. #12 Utah State 30-3 (14)

This is the one game where a number 12 seed winning would not really be all that much of an upset.  Utah State should have been a top eight seed in this tournament.  If we were conspiracy buffs, we would say that the Selection Committee searched for a team that the Aggies do not match up with all that well and placed them in this spot to verify their actions.

 

Kansas State does not take care of the ball well enough to advance very deep into this tournament, but their first game opponent cannot take advantage of that weakness.

 

Utah State has dominated their opponents by forcing them to play a patient half-court game with very little scoring in transition.  They prefer to work the ball patiently for a good shot and then force opponents to take a low-percentage shot.  Thus, the Aggies outrebound their opponents, but they do so by forcing more bad shots than by out-leaping their opponents.

 

Kansas State has the talent to force Utah State to play at a quicker tempo and force them to defend one-on-one.  Jacob Pullen is a poor man’s (and smaller) Derrick Rose.  He can break down most opponents off the dribble, and he should be able to force USU to resort to some type of combination defense to keep him from going wild.

 

What scares us most about Utah State is that they had two opportunities to show they are deserving of their lofty ranking.  They lost to BYU and to Georgetown, and they never really threatened to pull of the upset in either game.

 

This is one game where we are going to go against our own chalk.  Kansas State’s schedule was seven points tougher, and the Wildcats can exploit the Aggies’ weaknesses.

 

Prediction: Kansas State 70  Utah State 63

 

#4 Wisconsin 23-8 (7) vs. #13 Belmont 30-4 (9)

This game has become the most-picked upset special around the nation.  Belmont is being compared with Butler of last year.  The Bruins are lofty of all this attention-gathering admiration, but Wisconsin is not the Washington Generals.

 

Belmont has the highest scoring margin in the nation at 18.4 points per game.  The Bruins outshot their opposition by 5.7% per game, and they took a lot of three-point attempts.  They outrebounded their opponents by 3.9, and they had an eye-popping 5.3 turnover margin.  They share the top steals per game average in this tournament with Missouri at 9.7, and their R+T Rating is the best in the tournament at 16.2 (three better than number two Ohio State).

 

Of course, these statistics were compiled against inferior competition.  Belmont’s schedule strength is nine points below the national average and a dozen below their first round opponent.  Against the opponents that made it to this tournament, they were 1-3.  They beat Alabama State by 13.  The three losses were on the road to in-state rivals Tennessee (twice) and Vanderbilt, but they led in the second half of those games.

 

The last time Belmont was in the Big Dance, the Bruins came within a missed last shot of sending Duke home.   

 

Wisconsin was not expected to be this good in 2011.  This was supposed to be a minor rebuilding season for the Badgers.  The Badgers usually run Coach Bo Ryan’s Swing Offense with great efficiency, rarely turning the ball over.  They outscored their opponents by 9.9 points per game, and they outshot they outrebounded them by 3.8 boards per game. 

 

The Badgers have been a hot and cold team this year.  When they have been hot, they have been nearly unbeatable, because Ryan’s teams always limit possessions.  When they have been cold, they have been easily beatable, because Ryan’s teams always limit possessions.  They finished the season as cold as ice, so the Badgers must be considered a slight underdog in this game.

 

Prediction: Belmont 74  Wisconsin 70

 

#6 St. John’s 21-11 (9) vs. #11 Gonzaga 24-9 (13)

Here is a game where we believe the seedings should be switched.  Gonzaga has been here enough times to be considered a regular in the NCAA Tournament, like Duke, Kansas, Ohio State, and Connecticut.  This makes a baker’s dozen consecutive appearances in the Big Dance for the Bulldogs. 

 

In past years, Gonzaga had a big scorer that could take over games.  Adam Morrison comes to mind.  This year, the Zags are more difficult to prepare for, because they are more team-oriented.  There is not a big star on the roster, but all five starters are capable of taking the team on his shoulders with a hot night.

 

In their nine-game winning streak to close the season, Gonzaga eliminated Saint Mary’s from the Dance party with two victories.  The Bulldogs scoring margin in those nine games was 76-58.  This is a good team playing its best ball of the year, and we expect Coach Mark Few to win yet another NCAA Tournament game.

 

St. John’s comes into the tournament minus one of its stars.  Starting forward D. J. Kennedy went down for the season with a knee injury in the Big East Tournament, and the Red Storm is now suspect in the paint.  Their Criteria Score of nine should be discounted by two to three points.  It is enough to take this contest from tossup status to near-comfortable status for Gonzaga.

 

Prediction: Gonzaga 74  St. John’s 66

 

#3 Brigham Young 30-4 (18) vs. #14 Wofford 21-12 (-1)

So, you didn’t get a chance to see Pete Maravich play at LSU in 1968, 1969, or 1970, eh?  We must admit that nobody will ever be the collegiate equal for Maravich, but Jimmer Fredette may be the closest thing to him.

 

Throw out the floppy socks and floppy Beatles haircut and throw out some of the most unbelievable passes in the history of the game (so unbelievable that Maravich’s teammates frequently could not see them coming), and Fredette is not that far behind Maravich.

 

The sports nation will be turning its eyes to this game just to see if Fredette can make a run at a single game scoring mark.  If we remember correctly, Notre Dame’s Austin Carr set the mark back in 1970 with 61 points against Ohio U in a regional qualifier game.

 

BYU may have been a strong Final Four contender had Brandon Davies not loved his girlfriend so much.  The Cougars averaged 8.7 fewer points per game once Davies was suspended. 

 

Wofford will not be able to take much advantage of Davies’ absence.  The Terriers fared well in all PiRate Criteria categories, but they did not meet even the minimum “numbers to look for” in any category, and their schedule strength was five points below the norm. 

 

Prediction: Brigham Young 75  Wofford 63

 

#7 U C L A 22-10 (-3) vs. #10 Michigan State 19-14 (1)

If only this were a few years ago.  Neither of these historically dominating teams is going to make waves in this year’s tournament, and the winner will be around for just one more game.

 

UCLA would be a national title contender if Kevin Love had stuck around for four years.  Imagine Love as a senior on this team.  Can you say Bill Walton-like numbers?  Alas, the Bruins must get by with a couple of well above-average forwards instead of the best three-man tandem in the nation.

 

The Bruins have the worst turnover margin of any team in this tournament.  At -3.4, UCLA would need to dominate on the boards, and while they usually win that battle, it is anything but dominating.

 

Michigan State’s one asset year in and year out under Coach Tom Izzo has been their rebounding acumen.  For most teams, a +4.3 edge on the boards would be considered outstanding, but in East Lansing, this is considered a down year. 

 

Neither team has done all that well away from their home court this season, and there really is only one stat where one team stands out ahead of the other.  MSU’s schedule was four points tougher than UCLA’s schedule.  That’s our spread for this game.  

 

Prediction: Michigan State 64  UCLA 60

 

#2 Florida 26-7 (15) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara 18-13 (-10)

The Gators looked like a potential Final Four team in the last month, at least when they were not playing Kentucky.  UCSB is not Kentucky. 

 

Florida tends to commit too many floor mistakes to win four games in this year’s tournament.  They have enough talent to get through the first weekend, but we do not see the Gators extending their stay after that.

 

UCSB upset Long Beach State to get here, and the Gauchos are one of the weakest teams in the tournament according to our Criteria Score.  With negative rebounding and turnover margins, they just barely escape automatic elimination with a R+T rating of 0.3. 

 

Prediction: Florida 76  U C S B  54

 

 

 

Our Bracket

 

You have seen the 32 teams that we believe will win the second round games.  Here is how we fill out the rest of our bracket.

 

Third Round Winners

Ohio State over George Mason

Kentucky over West Virginia

Syracuse over Xavier

North Carolina over Washington

Duke over Tennessee

Texas over Arizona

Connecticut over Cincinnati

San Diego State over Penn State

Kansas over UNLV

Louisville over Vanderbilt

Purdue over Georgetown

Notre Dame over Texas A&M

Pittsburgh over Old Dominion

Kansas State over Belmont

Gonzaga over Brigham Young

Florida over Michigan State

 

Sweet 16 Winners

Ohio State over Kentucky

Syracuse over North Carolina

Texas over Duke

San Diego State over Connecticut

Kansas over Louisville

Purdue over Notre Dame

Pittsburgh over Kansas State

Florida over Gonzaga

 

Elite 8 Winners

Ohio State over Syracuse

Texas over San Diego State

Kansas over Purdue

Pittsburgh over Florida

 

Semifinal Winners

Ohio State over Texas

Kansas over Pittsburgh

 

National Championship

Kansas over Ohio State

March 12, 2011

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 12 Update

Bucknell Joins The Dance Party

The Bucknell Bison earned the Patriot League’s automatic bid Friday with a 72-54 victory over Lafayette.  Versatile big man Mike Muscala led the Bison with 18 points while sharpshooter Bryson Johnson added 15.

 

Bucknell improved to 25-8 on the season.  They project to be a 12 or 13-seed.

 

12 More Bids To Go Out Saturday

 

This is the busiest day of the tournament schedule.  13 conferences will crown their champion, and four other conferences will conduct semifinal rounds.  All told, every single one of the 21 games scheduled will be televised nationally.  Do you have enough televisions and a good high-speed computer?

 

Here is a conference-by-conference look at all the action.

 

All Game Times EST

 

Atlantic Coast Conference—Greensboro, NC

Quarterfinal Round

#1 North Carolina  61  #9 Miami  59

#4 Clemson  70  #5 Boston College  47

#2 Duke  87  #7 Maryland  71

#6 Virginia Tech  52  #3 Florida State  51 

 

Semifinal Round

#1 North Carolina (25-6)  vs. #4 Clemson (21-10)  1:30 PM  ESPN 

#2 Duke (28-4)  vs. #6 Virginia Tech (21-11)  3:45 PM  ESPN

 

All four teams are safely in the NCAA Tournament.  The Hokies secured a spot in the Dance with the nail-biting win over the Seminoles.

 

America East Conference

Championship Round

#5 Stony Brook (15-16)  at #2 Boston U (20-13)  12 Noon  ESPN2

 

Boston U won both regular season meetings.  The Terriers won 67-62 at home and 62-49 on the road.  They win with their defense, as they only shoot 40.6% from the field.

 

Atlantic 10 Conference—Atlantic City, NJ

Quarterfinal Round

#9 Dayton  68  #1 Xavier  67

#12 St. Joseph’s  93  #4 Duquesne  90  ot

#2 Temple  96  #10 LaSalle  76

#3 Richmond  55  #6 Rhode Island 45

 

Semifinal Round

#9 Dayton (21-12)  vs. #12 St. Joseph’s (11-21)  1 PM  CBS College

#2 Temple (25-6)  vs. #3 Richmond (24-7)  3:30 PM  CBS College

 

The Bubble teams will have to sweat it out all the way until Sunday.  At least one long shot will advance to the Championship Game.  Neither St. Joe’s nor Dayton is getting an at-large bid, and one of the two will be playing for an automatic bid Sunday.  Both Temple and Richmond are in the Dance.

 

Big 12 Conference—Kansas City

Semifinal Round

#1 Kansas  90  #5 Colorado  83

#2 Texas  70  #3 Texas A&M  58

 

Championship Game

#1 Kansas (31-2)  vs. #2 Texas (27-6)  6 PM  ESPN

 

The Jayhawks are still playing for the overall number one seed, while Texas is probably locked in on a number two seed.  However, with Notre Dame losing, a Longhorn win could put them in the conversation, especially if Duke does not win the ACC Tournament.

 

Big East Conference—New York City

Semifinal Round

#9 Connecticut  76  #4 Syracuse  71  ot

#3 Louisville 83  #2 Notre Dame  77  ot 

 

Championship Game

#3 Louisville (25-8)  vs. #9 Connecticut (25-9)  9 PM  ESPN

 

Connecticut becomes the first team ever to play five games in five days in modern college basketball history.  Will they have anything left in the tank next week when it really counts?  Louisville’s win more than likely killed any chance for the Irish getting a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament.

 

Big Ten Conference—Indianapolis

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Ohio State  67  #8 Northwestern  61 ot

#4 Michigan  60  #5 Illinois  55

#7 Michigan State  74  #2 Purdue  56

#6 Penn State  36  #3 Wisconsin 33

 

Semifinal Round

#1 Ohio State (30-2)  vs. #4 Michigan (20-12)  1:40 PM  CBS

#6 Penn State (18-13)  vs. #7 Michigan State (19-13)  4 PM  CBS

 

Michigan State has now earned a spot in the NCAA Tournament.  Penn State might move from the Bubble to in the tournament with a win over the Spartans.

 

Big West Conference—Anaheim

Semifinal Round

#1 Long Beach State  74  #7 UC-Riverside  63

#5 UC-Santa Barbara 83  #3 Cal State Northridge 63

 

Championship Game

#1 Long Beach State (22-10)  vs. #5 UC-Santa Barbara (17-13)  8 PM  ESPN2

 

Long Beach State won both meetings against the Gauchos in the regular season, and neither game was close.  The 49ers are not going to become another Butler or even repeat the exploits of Northern Iowa last year, but they could scare a favored team in the first round.  If UCSB wins, then they will make a quick exit in the first round.

 

Conference USA—El Paso, TX

Semifinal Round

#4 Memphis  76  #8 East Carolina  56

#3 U T E P  66  #2 Tulsa  54

 

Championship Game

#3 UTEP (25-8)  vs. #4 Memphis (24-9)  11:30 AM  CBS

 

The host Miners blew Memphis off the floor 74-47 in their only regular season meeting.  That game took place on this court.

 

Ivy League Playoff

Harvard (23-5)  vs. Princeton (24-6)  at Yale University  4 PM  ESPN3.com 

 

If Princeton wins a close game, there is an outside chance that the Ivy League could get two bids.

 

Mid-American Conference—Cleveland

Semifinal Round

#6 Akron  79  #2 Western Michigan  68

#1 Kent State 79  #4 Ball State 68

 

Championship Game

#1 Kent State (23-10)  vs. #6 Akron (22-12)  6 PM  ESPN2

 

The winner goes dancing, while the loser can only hope for a trip to Madison Square Garden in late March.

 

M E A C—Winston-Salem, NC

Semifinal Round

#4 Morgan State  61  #1 Bethune-Cookman  48

#2 Hampton  85  #6 Norfolk State  61

 

Championship Game

#2 Hampton (23-8)  vs. #4 Morgan State (17-13)  2 PM  ESPN2

 

Morgan State goes for a four-peat.  The Bears beat Hampton in the regular season 78-72.

 

Mountain West Conference—Las Vegas

Semifinal Round

#1 B Y U  87  #5 New Mexico  76

#2 San Diego State  74  #3 UNLV 72

 

Championship Game

#1 B Y U  (30-3)  vs. #2 San Diego State (31-2)  7 PM  Versus

 

Is the third time the charm for San Diego State?  The Aztecs’ two losses were to the Cougars.  If they can hold Jimmer Fredette under 35 points, we have a feeling that SDSU will cut down the nets. 

 

Both teams are legitimate threats to make it to the Sweet 16 and possibly a round or two farther.

 

Pac-10 Conference—Los Angeles

Semifinal Round

#1 Arizona  67  #4 Southern Cal  62

#3 Washington 69  #7 Oregon 51

 

Championship Game

#1 Arizona (27-6)  vs. #3 Washington (22-10)  6 PM  CBS

 

This should be an exciting game, even though it will not greatly affect the NCAA Tournament seedings.

 

The two teams split the season series, but the Huskies came close to sweeping.  UW won by 17 at home and fell by a single point in Tucson.  We think this is a tossup game.

 

Southeastern Conference—Atlanta

Quarterfinal Round

1W  Alabama 65  4E Georgia 59  ot

2E  Kentucky  75  3W  Ole Miss 66

1E  Florida  85  5E  Tennessee  74

3E  Vanderbilt  87  2W  Mississippi State  81

 

Semifinal Round

1W  Alabama (21-10)  vs. 2E  Kentucky (23-8)  1 PM  ABC

1E  Florida (25-6)  vs.  3E  Vanderbilt (23-9)  3:30 PM  ABC

 

Alabama played themselves into position to get one of the final at-large bids.  The Crimson Tide fans need to route against a Dayton or St. Joseph’s tournament championship in the Atlantic 10, because there is still little room for error for ‘Bama.

 

Kentucky looks unstoppable at times and then looks like a team that doesn’t belong in the tournament at others.  That’s what you get with a bunch of underclassmen and with no depth.

 

We believe this game will be close for most of the day, but the Wildcats will enjoy one nice spurt in both halves to hold off the Tide by six to 12 points.

 

Florida is playing about as well as either of their two National Champion teams.  It is hard to stop a team with five guys capable of scoring 20 points.  The Gators’ have few weaknesses.

 

Vanderbilt is a lot like Florida, but not as talented.  The Commodores have excellent outside shooters, but they cannot create their own shot like Florida’s outside shooters.  They have a couple of excellent inside scorers, but they can disappear against Florida’s inside players.  We look for the Gators to dominate this one from the beginning and win by double digits.

 

Southland Conference—Katy, TX

Championship Game

#1 McNeese State (21-10)  vs. #7 UT-San Antonio (18-13)  4 PM  ESPN2

 

S W A C—Garland, TX

Semifinal Round

#4 Alabama State  73  #1 Texas Southern  66

#6 Grambling  81  #2 Jackson State  75  ot

 

Championship Game

#4 Alabama State (16-17)  vs. #6 Grambling (12-20)  8:30 PM  ESPNU

 

The winner of this game can definitely plan on heading to Dayton for a First Four game.

 

W A C—Las Vegas

Semifinal Round

#1 Utah State  58  #8 San Jose State  54

#2 Boise State 81  #3 New Mexico State  63

 

Championship Game

#1 Utah State (29-3)  vs. #2 Boise State (20-11) 10 PM  ESPN2

 

Utah State is definitely in the Dance, so if the Broncos can pull off the big upset, another bubble will burst somewhere else.

 

Note: St. Mary’s defeated Weber State Friday night 77-54 in a non-conference game that was scheduled only two months ago.  The Gaels appear to be safe as an at-large team.

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