It’s Football Time!

The PiRate Ship arrived at the port today. Our College PiRate Ratings, The PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings to be exact, are ready to go public. As we expected, the top teams in the nation are more experienced as a whole than they were last year, but a large majority of FBS teams are more experienced. In fact, as we hinted earlier this Summer, the total amount of college football experience and average age is at its highest since the late 1940s, when the G.I. Bill allowed former collegians to return from the War and resume their lives where it was before the War.

Because the weakest teams will be better than they have been in normal years, and because our ratings must average 100.0, since 100 is par, that means that the preseason top 10 will have lower then normal power ratings to begin the 2021 season.

As we do every year, we will begin Friday reviewing one conference per day until Monday, February 23. We will start with the weakest conference by average PiRate Ratings, ending with the strongest conference on the 23rd. Here’s the schedule:

Friday, August 13: Conference USA

Saturday, August 14: Mid-American Conference

Sunday, August 15: The FBS Independents

Monday, August 16: Mountain West Conference

Tuesday, August 17: Sun Belt Conference

Wednesday, August 18: American Athletic Conference

Thursday, August 19: Atlantic Coast Conference

Friday, August 20: Big Ten Conference

Saturday, August 21: Pac-12 Conference

Sunday, August 22: Big 12 Conference

Monday, August 23: Southeastern Conference

Later on Monday, August 23, we will post our opening college spreads for Week 0.

Fall 2020 College Football Preseason Ratings

Welcome to the start of the potentially most dysfunctional college football season in the history of the sport.

We release this preliminary preseason power ratings submission for your entertainment purposes only.  We make no claims that our preseason ratings this year will be any more accurate than throwing darts at a wall with the names of the teams affixed in tape.  With each toss of a dart, another team that isn’t taped that well might fall onto the floor and reduce the number of teams playing by one or two or 76.

The PiRates design our power ratings so that the average FBS team rates 100.0.  Above that number, a team is better than average by their rating minus 100 points.  Below that number, a team is weaker than average by 100 points minus their rating.

When there are 100 teams in the sample size, the total number of power ratings must equal 13,000  for the average to be 100.0.  Each time a college team announced they would not field a football squad this fall, reducing the number of teams in the sample, the average had to be recalculated based on the new sample.  The only time the ratings would not change would be if the team cancelling had ratings of 100.0 for the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings.  Of course, no teams met that qualification, so our ratings continually changed until we made it to where we are today with 76 teams scheduled to play football this Fall and 54 teams potentially scheduled to play football in the Spring.

Additionally, most of the 76 teams will play a conference only schedule.  That makes it quite difficult to compare teams in different leagues with no inter-conference games.  It basically makes every week of the projected college season like a new preseason, because only in the preseason do our ratings reflect zero inter-conference action.  Obviously, in any year, the preseason ratings are the least accurate of the entire season.  Thus, we expect our ratings to be poor when they are used to compare a team in the Atlantic Coast Conference with a team in the Southeastern Conference.  On the bright side, with more conference games now on the schedule, in-season conference ratings should be a bit more accurate later in the year, just like they are in college basketball.

We are issuing our raw preseason ratings today in two forms.  First, we show you the 76-team sample as it is currently configured based on 76 teams continuing to plan to play football in 2020.  Next, we will show you how the season would have previewed had all 130 teams played as regularly planned.

The preseason rating you see will be recalculated before the first games are played, based on the evidence of players opting out and possibly others transferring in from schools that will not be playing.  Obviously, if Trevor Lawrence were to opt out at Clemson, the Tigers would immediately drop by several points in power rating.  And, if somehow Justin Fields was granted immediate eligibility and transferred to Notre Dame, the Irish would move up several points in power rating.  It will be a large task to keep on top of this, and then to monitor rosters during the season—–if there is a season.

Enjoy, if you can.

The New Reality–76 Team PiRate Ratings for Preseason 2020

 

PiRate Rankings 1-76

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Clemson	125.3
2	L S U	123.8
3	Alabama	122.3
4	Georgia	120.8
5	Florida	119.9
6	Auburn	117.5
7	Notre Dame	117.2
8	Oklahoma	117.0
9	Texas A&M	115.8
10	Texas	114.7
11	Oklahoma St.	113.3
12	North Carolina	111.8
13	Kentucky	110.8
14	Iowa St.	110.6
15	Louisville	110.1
16	Virginia Tech	109.9
17	UCF	109.8
18	Tennessee	109.2
19	Memphis	109.1
20	Cincinnati	109.1
21	South Carolina	108.3
22	Baylor	108.1
23	Ole Miss	107.1
24	Kansas St.	107.0
25	Florida St.	107.0
26	Virginia	106.4
27	T C U	104.3
28	Houston	103.7
29	Pittsburgh	103.6
30	Mississippi St.	103.4
31	Appalachian St.	103.2
32	Navy	103.0
33	Louisiana	102.2
34	SMU	101.7
35	BYU	101.3
36	Miami (Fla.)	101.2
37	West Virginia	100.7
38	Duke	100.2
39	Missouri	99.5
40	Boston College	99.5
41	Texas Tech	99.4
42	Wake Forest	98.7
43	Georgia Tech	98.0
44	Western Kentucky	96.7
45	Temple	96.2
46	Tulsa	96.1
47	Georgia Southern	96.0
48	Florida Int’l.	95.5
49	Syracuse	95.4
50	Marshall	95.3
51	Tulane	94.6
52	Arkansas	94.3
53	USF	94.2
54	NC State	93.6
55	U A B	93.4
56	Vanderbilt	92.6
57	Arkansas St.	92.6
58	East Carolina	91.9
59	Southern Miss.	91.3
60	Army	90.8
61	Kansas	89.5
62	Coastal Carolina	88.6
63	Middle Tennessee	87.8
64	Troy	87.8
65	Georgia St.	87.7
66	Louisiana Tech	87.4
67	Liberty	87.4
68	Charlotte	86.4
69	Rice	85.3
70	UL-Monroe	84.3
71	South Alabama	82.6
72	Florida Atlantic	81.9
73	North Texas	78.7
74	Texas St.	77.6
75	U T S A	76.3
76	U T E P	64.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
UCF	109.2	109.6	110.5	109.8
Memphis	110.0	108.0	109.3	109.1
Cincinnati	109.5	108.3	109.4	109.1
Houston	104.7	103.2	103.2	103.7
Navy	104.4	102.4	102.3	103.0
SMU	102.1	101.5	101.5	101.7
Temple	96.4	97.0	95.3	96.2
Tulsa	97.6	95.7	95.1	96.1
Tulane	94.8	95.0	94.1	94.6
USF	95.3	94.0	93.4	94.2
East Carolina	92.1	92.6	90.9	91.9
AAC Averages	101.5	100.7	100.4	100.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	123.6	124.5	127.8	125.3
Notre Dame	117.5	116.5	117.7	117.2
North Carolina	111.3	111.5	112.5	111.8
Louisville	110.3	110.9	109.1	110.1
Virginia Tech	109.2	109.2	111.3	109.9
Florida St.	107.4	105.8	107.7	107.0
Virginia	106.6	106.1	106.3	106.4
Pittsburgh	102.9	104.7	103.1	103.6
Miami (Fla.)	100.3	103.0	100.3	101.2
Duke	100.3	101.0	99.5	100.2
Boston College	99.6	99.3	99.6	99.5
Wake Forest	98.4	99.6	98.1	98.7
Georgia Tech	98.7	98.0	97.3	98.0
Syracuse	94.3	96.6	95.1	95.4
NC State	93.5	93.7	93.6	93.6
ACC Averages	104.9	105.4	105.3	105.2
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	116.9	116.9	117.1	117.0
Texas	115.2	113.6	115.3	114.7
Oklahoma St.	113.4	112.8	113.6	113.3
Iowa St.	110.9	110.2	110.7	110.6
Baylor	108.0	108.1	108.2	108.1
Kansas St.	107.4	106.0	107.5	107.0
T C U	105.0	102.8	105.1	104.3
West Virginia	100.6	100.7	100.7	100.7
Texas Tech	99.7	98.5	99.9	99.4
Kansas	89.8	90.0	88.5	89.5
Big 12 Averages	106.7	106.0	106.7	106.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	96.0	97.1	97.0	96.7
Florida Int’l.	95.4	95.2	95.8	95.5
Marshall	95.9	95.5	94.6	95.3
U A B	93.3	94.0	93.0	93.4
Southern Miss.	91.1	91.6	91.2	91.3
Middle Tennessee	87.5	88.1	87.8	87.8
Louisiana Tech	86.5	88.0	87.7	87.4
Charlotte	86.2	86.5	86.3	86.4
Rice	86.2	84.2	85.6	85.3
Florida Atlantic	81.3	83.0	81.4	81.9
North Texas	78.1	79.3	78.5	78.7
U T S A	76.6	76.3	75.9	76.3
U T E P	64.0	67.0	63.6	64.9
CUSA Averages	86.0	86.6	86.0	86.2
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
BYU	101.9	100.4	101.5	101.3
Army	90.1	92.5	89.8	90.8
Liberty	86.2	89.1	86.8	87.4
Indep. Averages	92.7	94.0	92.7	93.2
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	121.1	119.4	121.9	120.8
Florida	119.7	119.3	120.8	119.9
Kentucky	110.3	110.5	111.5	110.8
Tennessee	109.1	109.0	109.6	109.2
South Carolina	109.3	107.0	108.7	108.3
Missouri	99.1	99.2	100.3	99.5
Vanderbilt	93.3	92.7	91.8	92.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
L S U	123.2	122.5	125.8	123.8
Alabama	121.4	122.3	123.3	122.3
Auburn	118.0	116.6	117.9	117.5
Texas A&M	115.7	115.8	115.9	115.8
Ole Miss	106.7	106.1	108.4	107.1
Mississippi St.	104.1	102.5	103.8	103.4
Arkansas	94.7	95.8	92.4	94.3
SEC Averages	110.4	109.9	110.9	110.4
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	103.0	102.1	104.4	103.2
Georgia Southern	95.2	96.2	96.5	96.0
Coastal Carolina	88.3	88.9	88.7	88.6
Troy	87.0	89.0	87.3	87.8
Georgia St.	87.8	87.5	87.7	87.7
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	102.5	101.9	102.3	102.2
Arkansas St.	92.0	94.1	91.6	92.6
UL-Monroe	84.7	84.9	83.2	84.3
South Alabama	82.8	84.1	80.9	82.6
Texas St.	78.0	78.9	76.0	77.6
Sun Averages	90.1	90.7	89.9	90.2

 

Conference Ranking

SEC	110.4
B12	106.5
ACC	105.2
AAC	100.9
Ind	93.2
SUN	90.2
CUSA	86.2

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What Might Have Been!

The original 130 team rankings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Ohio St.	131.5
2	Clemson	126.7
3	L S U	125.2
4	Alabama	123.7
5	Georgia	122.2
6	Penn St.	121.6
7	Wisconsin	121.5
8	Florida	121.3
9	Auburn	118.9
10	Oregon	118.8
11	Notre Dame	118.6
12	Oklahoma	118.4
13	Texas A&M	117.2
14	Texas	116.1
15	U S C	114.9
16	Oklahoma St.	114.7
17	North Carolina	113.2
18	Minnesota	112.9
19	Iowa	112.4
20	Michigan	112.4
21	Kentucky	112.2
22	Iowa St.	112.0
23	Louisville	111.5
24	Virginia Tech	111.3
25	UCF	111.2
26	Tennessee	110.6
27	Memphis	110.5
28	Cincinnati	110.5
29	Indiana	110.0
30	Washington	109.9
31	South Carolina	109.7
32	Baylor	109.5
33	Utah	109.3
34	Ole Miss	108.5
35	Kansas St.	108.4
36	Florida St.	108.4
37	Nebraska	108.0
38	Virginia	107.8
39	California	107.6
40	Arizona St.	107.6
41	Boise St.	107.0
42	Purdue	106.3
43	T C U	105.7
44	Houston	105.1
45	Pittsburgh	105.0
46	Mississippi St.	104.8
47	Washington St.	104.7
48	Appalachian St.	104.6
49	Navy	104.4
50	Northwestern	104.0
51	Illinois	103.9
52	Stanford	103.8
53	Louisiana	103.6
54	SMU	103.1
55	BYU	102.7
56	Michigan St.	102.7
57	Oregon St.	102.6
58	Miami (Fla.)	102.6
59	West Virginia	102.1
60	Duke	101.6
61	U C L A	101.0
62	Missouri	100.9
63	Boston College	100.9
64	Texas Tech	100.8
65	Arizona	100.4
66	Wake Forest	100.1
67	Air Force	100.0
68	Georgia Tech	99.4
69	Western Kentucky	98.1
70	Wyoming	97.9
71	Temple	97.6
72	Tulsa	97.5
73	Colorado	97.4
74	Georgia Southern	97.4
75	Buffalo	97.1
76	Florida Atlantic	96.9
77	Syracuse	96.8
78	Marshall	96.7
79	San Diego St.	96.6
80	Tulane	96.0
81	Arkansas	95.7
82	USF	95.6
83	Ohio	95.1
84	NC State	95.0
85	Rutgers	94.9
86	U A B	94.8
87	Hawaii	94.3
88	Maryland	94.2
89	Vanderbilt	94.0
90	Arkansas St.	94.0
91	Miami (Ohio)	93.9
92	East Carolina	93.3
93	Fresno St.	93.2
94	Utah St.	93.1
95	Central Michigan	93.0
96	Southern Miss.	92.7
97	Ball St.	92.5
98	Army	92.2
99	Colorado St.	91.4
100	Nevada	90.9
101	Kansas	90.9
102	Western Michigan	90.2
103	Coastal Carolina	90.0
104	Kent St.	89.6
105	San Jose St.	89.5
106	Middle Tennessee	89.2
107	Troy	89.2
108	Georgia St.	89.1
109	Louisiana Tech	88.8
110	Liberty	88.8
111	Toledo	88.7
112	Charlotte	87.8
113	Rice	86.7
114	UL-Monroe	85.7
115	South Alabama	84.0
116	U N L V	83.7
117	Northern Illinois	83.5
118	New Mexico	83.4
119	Florida Int’l.	83.3
120	Eastern Michigan	83.1
121	Old Dominion	81.7
122	Connecticut	81.4
123	North Texas	80.1
124	Texas St.	79.0
125	U T S A	77.7
126	New Mexico St.	76.5
127	Bowling Green	73.6
128	Akron	73.3
129	U T E P	66.3
130	UMass	65.7

 

Justin Fields, we feel for you, sir.  This looked like the year your Buckeyes were the class of college football, but we’ll never know what might have been.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Going Ahead As Planned

Hello to all of our patrons and occasional readers.  The PiRate Ratings are currently going under the preseason compilation for both College and Pro football as if nothing has changed from the past.

Should the season be postponed or other major changes are made, we will do our best to adjust the ratings based on whatever presents itself.

Additionally, we will not participate in any political commentary or make any comments other than mathematical and historical counts.  That means that even though 2020 is an election year, we have chosen to stay out entirely from issuing any electoral vote count predictions and all the House and Senate forecasts.

We want this to be an escape for you to visit to get away from all other outside forces.  We are strongly considering adding a potential tabletop football game like we did several years ago with a “best of” tournament between some of the greatest college football teams of all time, similar to how we did this as a replacement to the NCAA Basketball Tournament, won by the 1968 UCLA Bruins.

Additionally, we are also considering putting a package together where people can send a small payment here, and we will send you the PDF files to print the “best of franchise” NFL and AFL teams between 1960 and 1979 with instructions on how you can cheaply print and have your own tabletop football strategy game to play.  We currently do not have a zip file creator on the PiRate ship.

One more heads up.  WordPress has begun to phase out the original editor, and they may force a new editor to be used, one that is not friendly to pasting tables from our spreadsheet.  If for any reason we find it impossible to paste our spreadsheet tables into this site, we will create a new site and leave the link to that site as the final posting here. Let’s hope we can get through the season without having to make that change.

If all goes according to the norm, expect to see the preseason PiRate College Football Ratings around August 20 and the NFL Football Ratings within hours after the teams make their final cuts the first Saturday in September.

Sincerely

The Captain

PiRate Ratings Ready To Rock and Roll for 2018

Hello Mates

After hours and hours of intensive study, the PiRate Ratings are ready to debut for the 2018 college and professional football season.  We have made some major tweaks to our ratings’ algorithms as more and more analytical data has become available, some of which has contradicted some of our prior beliefs.

The main change we have made this year is how we rate new starters that replaced graduating starters in the NCAA ranks and changes in personnel at the NFL level.  We had been giving too much weight to certain positions and not enough weight at others.  This is why we spent an extra 40-50 hours this season refining our personnel ratings for each starting position of all 130 FBS teams and the 32 NFL teams.

We will begin previewing the NCAA football conferences Friday, August 9, beginning with the lowest overall rated conference and adding a new conference each day, until we culminate with the highest rated league on Sunday, August 19.

We will then debut our point spreads for the first week of college games on Tuesday, August 21, as there are a handful of games on Saturday, August 25.  Then, on August 28, we will have our first full preview for the real first week of the college football season.

Our NFL ratings will debut after the final cuts have been made following the final preseason games, most likely on Monday, September 3.  We will not offer an NFL preview this year.  We have noticed that since the Colin Kaepernick affair began, that the numbers of you reading our NFL-themed presentations have declined by 50% or more, while the number of patrons reading the college ratings and forecasts have increased by almost 50%.  This is about the same as with TV ratings, as the NFL Hall of Fame Game experienced its lowest ratings in over 20 years, and season ticket sales are off at almost every stadium.

For those wondering about out money line and/or teaser selections, we are leaning toward going only with straight wagers this season.  Our 4-year winning streak with the money line picks ended last year, when we could only win 51% of the time, which counts as a loss against the vigorish.  The one thing in our favor, is that we our wagers are always imaginary.  We neither win nor lose no matter the outcome of the games.

We do know there are a number of you that follow this site because you have statistical data that gives you a decided edge in your professional wagering.  Please be advised that our algorithms have experienced major alterations this year, and our ratings are not going to be the same as prior years.

Additionally, we have ended our retrodictive ratings, which required us to keep two separate databases.  These were excellent ways to rank the teams in order, but we know most of you are looking for predictive ratings and not rankings.

Here’s to an exciting season!