The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 11, 2021

It’s Football Time!

The PiRate Ship arrived at the port today. Our College PiRate Ratings, The PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings to be exact, are ready to go public. As we expected, the top teams in the nation are more experienced as a whole than they were last year, but a large majority of FBS teams are more experienced. In fact, as we hinted earlier this Summer, the total amount of college football experience and average age is at its highest since the late 1940s, when the G.I. Bill allowed former collegians to return from the War and resume their lives where it was before the War.

Because the weakest teams will be better than they have been in normal years, and because our ratings must average 100.0, since 100 is par, that means that the preseason top 10 will have lower then normal power ratings to begin the 2021 season.

As we do every year, we will begin Friday reviewing one conference per day until Monday, February 23. We will start with the weakest conference by average PiRate Ratings, ending with the strongest conference on the 23rd. Here’s the schedule:

Friday, August 13: Conference USA

Saturday, August 14: Mid-American Conference

Sunday, August 15: The FBS Independents

Monday, August 16: Mountain West Conference

Tuesday, August 17: Sun Belt Conference

Wednesday, August 18: American Athletic Conference

Thursday, August 19: Atlantic Coast Conference

Friday, August 20: Big Ten Conference

Saturday, August 21: Pac-12 Conference

Sunday, August 22: Big 12 Conference

Monday, August 23: Southeastern Conference

Later on Monday, August 23, we will post our opening college spreads for Week 0.

August 17, 2020

Fall 2020 College Football Preseason Ratings

Welcome to the start of the potentially most dysfunctional college football season in the history of the sport.

We release this preliminary preseason power ratings submission for your entertainment purposes only.  We make no claims that our preseason ratings this year will be any more accurate than throwing darts at a wall with the names of the teams affixed in tape.  With each toss of a dart, another team that isn’t taped that well might fall onto the floor and reduce the number of teams playing by one or two or 76.

The PiRates design our power ratings so that the average FBS team rates 100.0.  Above that number, a team is better than average by their rating minus 100 points.  Below that number, a team is weaker than average by 100 points minus their rating.

When there are 100 teams in the sample size, the total number of power ratings must equal 13,000  for the average to be 100.0.  Each time a college team announced they would not field a football squad this fall, reducing the number of teams in the sample, the average had to be recalculated based on the new sample.  The only time the ratings would not change would be if the team cancelling had ratings of 100.0 for the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings.  Of course, no teams met that qualification, so our ratings continually changed until we made it to where we are today with 76 teams scheduled to play football this Fall and 54 teams potentially scheduled to play football in the Spring.

Additionally, most of the 76 teams will play a conference only schedule.  That makes it quite difficult to compare teams in different leagues with no inter-conference games.  It basically makes every week of the projected college season like a new preseason, because only in the preseason do our ratings reflect zero inter-conference action.  Obviously, in any year, the preseason ratings are the least accurate of the entire season.  Thus, we expect our ratings to be poor when they are used to compare a team in the Atlantic Coast Conference with a team in the Southeastern Conference.  On the bright side, with more conference games now on the schedule, in-season conference ratings should be a bit more accurate later in the year, just like they are in college basketball.

We are issuing our raw preseason ratings today in two forms.  First, we show you the 76-team sample as it is currently configured based on 76 teams continuing to plan to play football in 2020.  Next, we will show you how the season would have previewed had all 130 teams played as regularly planned.

The preseason rating you see will be recalculated before the first games are played, based on the evidence of players opting out and possibly others transferring in from schools that will not be playing.  Obviously, if Trevor Lawrence were to opt out at Clemson, the Tigers would immediately drop by several points in power rating.  And, if somehow Justin Fields was granted immediate eligibility and transferred to Notre Dame, the Irish would move up several points in power rating.  It will be a large task to keep on top of this, and then to monitor rosters during the season—–if there is a season.

Enjoy, if you can.

The New Reality–76 Team PiRate Ratings for Preseason 2020

 

PiRate Rankings 1-76

Rank

Team

Rating

1

Clemson

125.3

2

L S U

123.8

3

Alabama

122.3

4

Georgia

120.8

5

Florida

119.9

6

Auburn

117.5

7

Notre Dame

117.2

8

Oklahoma

117.0

9

Texas A&M

115.8

10

Texas

114.7

11

Oklahoma St.

113.3

12

North Carolina

111.8

13

Kentucky

110.8

14

Iowa St.

110.6

15

Louisville

110.1

16

Virginia Tech

109.9

17

UCF

109.8

18

Tennessee

109.2

19

Memphis

109.1

20

Cincinnati

109.1

21

South Carolina

108.3

22

Baylor

108.1

23

Ole Miss

107.1

24

Kansas St.

107.0

25

Florida St.

107.0

26

Virginia

106.4

27

T C U

104.3

28

Houston

103.7

29

Pittsburgh

103.6

30

Mississippi St.

103.4

31

Appalachian St.

103.2

32

Navy

103.0

33

Louisiana

102.2

34

SMU

101.7

35

BYU

101.3

36

Miami (Fla.)

101.2

37

West Virginia

100.7

38

Duke

100.2

39

Missouri

99.5

40

Boston College

99.5

41

Texas Tech

99.4

42

Wake Forest

98.7

43

Georgia Tech

98.0

44

Western Kentucky

96.7

45

Temple

96.2

46

Tulsa

96.1

47

Georgia Southern

96.0

48

Florida Int’l.

95.5

49

Syracuse

95.4

50

Marshall

95.3

51

Tulane

94.6

52

Arkansas

94.3

53

USF

94.2

54

NC State

93.6

55

U A B

93.4

56

Vanderbilt

92.6

57

Arkansas St.

92.6

58

East Carolina

91.9

59

Southern Miss.

91.3

60

Army

90.8

61

Kansas

89.5

62

Coastal Carolina

88.6

63

Middle Tennessee

87.8

64

Troy

87.8

65

Georgia St.

87.7

66

Louisiana Tech

87.4

67

Liberty

87.4

68

Charlotte

86.4

69

Rice

85.3

70

UL-Monroe

84.3

71

South Alabama

82.6

72

Florida Atlantic

81.9

73

North Texas

78.7

74

Texas St.

77.6

75

U T S A

76.3

76

U T E P

64.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

UCF

109.2

109.6

110.5

109.8

Memphis

110.0

108.0

109.3

109.1

Cincinnati

109.5

108.3

109.4

109.1

Houston

104.7

103.2

103.2

103.7

Navy

104.4

102.4

102.3

103.0

SMU

102.1

101.5

101.5

101.7

Temple

96.4

97.0

95.3

96.2

Tulsa

97.6

95.7

95.1

96.1

Tulane

94.8

95.0

94.1

94.6

USF

95.3

94.0

93.4

94.2

East Carolina

92.1

92.6

90.9

91.9

 

 

AAC Averages

101.5

100.7

100.4

100.9

 

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Clemson

123.6

124.5

127.8

125.3

Notre Dame

117.5

116.5

117.7

117.2

North Carolina

111.3

111.5

112.5

111.8

Louisville

110.3

110.9

109.1

110.1

Virginia Tech

109.2

109.2

111.3

109.9

Florida St.

107.4

105.8

107.7

107.0

Virginia

106.6

106.1

106.3

106.4

Pittsburgh

102.9

104.7

103.1

103.6

Miami (Fla.)

100.3

103.0

100.3

101.2

Duke

100.3

101.0

99.5

100.2

Boston College

99.6

99.3

99.6

99.5

Wake Forest

98.4

99.6

98.1

98.7

Georgia Tech

98.7

98.0

97.3

98.0

Syracuse

94.3

96.6

95.1

95.4

NC State

93.5

93.7

93.6

93.6

 

 

ACC Averages

104.9

105.4

105.3

105.2

 

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Oklahoma

116.9

116.9

117.1

117.0

Texas

115.2

113.6

115.3

114.7

Oklahoma St.

113.4

112.8

113.6

113.3

Iowa St.

110.9

110.2

110.7

110.6

Baylor

108.0

108.1

108.2

108.1

Kansas St.

107.4

106.0

107.5

107.0

T C U

105.0

102.8

105.1

104.3

West Virginia

100.6

100.7

100.7

100.7

Texas Tech

99.7

98.5

99.9

99.4

Kansas

89.8

90.0

88.5

89.5

 

 

Big 12 Averages

106.7

106.0

106.7

106.5

 

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Western Kentucky

96.0

97.1

97.0

96.7

Florida Int’l.

95.4

95.2

95.8

95.5

Marshall

95.9

95.5

94.6

95.3

U A B

93.3

94.0

93.0

93.4

Southern Miss.

91.1

91.6

91.2

91.3

Middle Tennessee

87.5

88.1

87.8

87.8

Louisiana Tech

86.5

88.0

87.7

87.4

Charlotte

86.2

86.5

86.3

86.4

Rice

86.2

84.2

85.6

85.3

Florida Atlantic

81.3

83.0

81.4

81.9

North Texas

78.1

79.3

78.5

78.7

U T S A

76.6

76.3

75.9

76.3

U T E P

64.0

67.0

63.6

64.9

 

 

CUSA Averages

86.0

86.6

86.0

86.2

 

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BYU

101.9

100.4

101.5

101.3

Army

90.1

92.5

89.8

90.8

Liberty

86.2

89.1

86.8

87.4

 

 

Indep. Averages

92.7

94.0

92.7

93.2

 

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Georgia

121.1

119.4

121.9

120.8

Florida

119.7

119.3

120.8

119.9

Kentucky

110.3

110.5

111.5

110.8

Tennessee

109.1

109.0

109.6

109.2

South Carolina

109.3

107.0

108.7

108.3

Missouri

99.1

99.2

100.3

99.5

Vanderbilt

93.3

92.7

91.8

92.6

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

L S U

123.2

122.5

125.8

123.8

Alabama

121.4

122.3

123.3

122.3

Auburn

118.0

116.6

117.9

117.5

Texas A&M

115.7

115.8

115.9

115.8

Ole Miss

106.7

106.1

108.4

107.1

Mississippi St.

104.1

102.5

103.8

103.4

Arkansas

94.7

95.8

92.4

94.3

 

 

SEC Averages

110.4

109.9

110.9

110.4

 

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Appalachian St.

103.0

102.1

104.4

103.2

Georgia Southern

95.2

96.2

96.5

96.0

Coastal Carolina

88.3

88.9

88.7

88.6

Troy

87.0

89.0

87.3

87.8

Georgia St.

87.8

87.5

87.7

87.7

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Louisiana

102.5

101.9

102.3

102.2

Arkansas St.

92.0

94.1

91.6

92.6

UL-Monroe

84.7

84.9

83.2

84.3

South Alabama

82.8

84.1

80.9

82.6

Texas St.

78.0

78.9

76.0

77.6

 

 

Sun Averages

90.1

90.7

89.9

90.2

 

Conference Ranking

SEC

110.4

B12

106.5

ACC

105.2

AAC

100.9

Ind

93.2

SUN

90.2

CUSA

86.2

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What Might Have Been!

The original 130 team rankings

Rank

Team

Rating

1

Ohio St.

131.5

2

Clemson

126.7

3

L S U

125.2

4

Alabama

123.7

5

Georgia

122.2

6

Penn St.

121.6

7

Wisconsin

121.5

8

Florida

121.3

9

Auburn

118.9

10

Oregon

118.8

11

Notre Dame

118.6

12

Oklahoma

118.4

13

Texas A&M

117.2

14

Texas

116.1

15

U S C

114.9

16

Oklahoma St.

114.7

17

North Carolina

113.2

18

Minnesota

112.9

19

Iowa

112.4

20

Michigan

112.4

21

Kentucky

112.2

22

Iowa St.

112.0

23

Louisville

111.5

24

Virginia Tech

111.3

25

UCF

111.2

26

Tennessee

110.6

27

Memphis

110.5

28

Cincinnati

110.5

29

Indiana

110.0

30

Washington

109.9

31

South Carolina

109.7

32

Baylor

109.5

33

Utah

109.3

34

Ole Miss

108.5

35

Kansas St.

108.4

36

Florida St.

108.4

37

Nebraska

108.0

38

Virginia

107.8

39

California

107.6

40

Arizona St.

107.6

41

Boise St.

107.0

42

Purdue

106.3

43

T C U

105.7

44

Houston

105.1

45

Pittsburgh

105.0

46

Mississippi St.

104.8

47

Washington St.

104.7

48

Appalachian St.

104.6

49

Navy

104.4

50

Northwestern

104.0

51

Illinois

103.9

52

Stanford

103.8

53

Louisiana

103.6

54

SMU

103.1

55

BYU

102.7

56

Michigan St.

102.7

57

Oregon St.

102.6

58

Miami (Fla.)

102.6

59

West Virginia

102.1

60

Duke

101.6

61

U C L A

101.0

62

Missouri

100.9

63

Boston College

100.9

64

Texas Tech

100.8

65

Arizona

100.4

66

Wake Forest

100.1

67

Air Force

100.0

68

Georgia Tech

99.4

69

Western Kentucky

98.1

70

Wyoming

97.9

71

Temple

97.6

72

Tulsa

97.5

73

Colorado

97.4

74

Georgia Southern

97.4

75

Buffalo

97.1

76

Florida Atlantic

96.9

77

Syracuse

96.8

78

Marshall

96.7

79

San Diego St.

96.6

80

Tulane

96.0

81

Arkansas

95.7

82

USF

95.6

83

Ohio

95.1

84

NC State

95.0

85

Rutgers

94.9

86

U A B

94.8

87

Hawaii

94.3

88

Maryland

94.2

89

Vanderbilt

94.0

90

Arkansas St.

94.0

91

Miami (Ohio)

93.9

92

East Carolina

93.3

93

Fresno St.

93.2

94

Utah St.

93.1

95

Central Michigan

93.0

96

Southern Miss.

92.7

97

Ball St.

92.5

98

Army

92.2

99

Colorado St.

91.4

100

Nevada

90.9

101

Kansas

90.9

102

Western Michigan

90.2

103

Coastal Carolina

90.0

104

Kent St.

89.6

105

San Jose St.

89.5

106

Middle Tennessee

89.2

107

Troy

89.2

108

Georgia St.

89.1

109

Louisiana Tech

88.8

110

Liberty

88.8

111

Toledo

88.7

112

Charlotte

87.8

113

Rice

86.7

114

UL-Monroe

85.7

115

South Alabama

84.0

116

U N L V

83.7

117

Northern Illinois

83.5

118

New Mexico

83.4

119

Florida Int’l.

83.3

120

Eastern Michigan

83.1

121

Old Dominion

81.7

122

Connecticut

81.4

123

North Texas

80.1

124

Texas St.

79.0

125

U T S A

77.7

126

New Mexico St.

76.5

127

Bowling Green

73.6

128

Akron

73.3

129

U T E P

66.3

130

UMass

65.7

 

Justin Fields, we feel for you, sir.  This looked like the year your Buckeyes were the class of college football, but we’ll never know what might have been.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

June 4, 2020

PiRate Ratings Going Ahead As Planned

Hello to all of our patrons and occasional readers.  The PiRate Ratings are currently going under the preseason compilation for both College and Pro football as if nothing has changed from the past.

Should the season be postponed or other major changes are made, we will do our best to adjust the ratings based on whatever presents itself.

Additionally, we will not participate in any political commentary or make any comments other than mathematical and historical counts.  That means that even though 2020 is an election year, we have chosen to stay out entirely from issuing any electoral vote count predictions and all the House and Senate forecasts.

We want this to be an escape for you to visit to get away from all other outside forces.  We are strongly considering adding a potential tabletop football game like we did several years ago with a “best of” tournament between some of the greatest college football teams of all time, similar to how we did this as a replacement to the NCAA Basketball Tournament, won by the 1968 UCLA Bruins.

Additionally, we are also considering putting a package together where people can send a small payment here, and we will send you the PDF files to print the “best of franchise” NFL and AFL teams between 1960 and 1979 with instructions on how you can cheaply print and have your own tabletop football strategy game to play.  We currently do not have a zip file creator on the PiRate ship.

One more heads up.  WordPress has begun to phase out the original editor, and they may force a new editor to be used, one that is not friendly to pasting tables from our spreadsheet.  If for any reason we find it impossible to paste our spreadsheet tables into this site, we will create a new site and leave the link to that site as the final posting here. Let’s hope we can get through the season without having to make that change.

If all goes according to the norm, expect to see the preseason PiRate College Football Ratings around August 20 and the NFL Football Ratings within hours after the teams make their final cuts the first Saturday in September.

Sincerely

The Captain

August 9, 2018

PiRate Ratings Ready To Rock and Roll for 2018

Hello Mates

After hours and hours of intensive study, the PiRate Ratings are ready to debut for the 2018 college and professional football season.  We have made some major tweaks to our ratings’ algorithms as more and more analytical data has become available, some of which has contradicted some of our prior beliefs.

The main change we have made this year is how we rate new starters that replaced graduating starters in the NCAA ranks and changes in personnel at the NFL level.  We had been giving too much weight to certain positions and not enough weight at others.  This is why we spent an extra 40-50 hours this season refining our personnel ratings for each starting position of all 130 FBS teams and the 32 NFL teams.

We will begin previewing the NCAA football conferences Friday, August 9, beginning with the lowest overall rated conference and adding a new conference each day, until we culminate with the highest rated league on Sunday, August 19.

We will then debut our point spreads for the first week of college games on Tuesday, August 21, as there are a handful of games on Saturday, August 25.  Then, on August 28, we will have our first full preview for the real first week of the college football season.

Our NFL ratings will debut after the final cuts have been made following the final preseason games, most likely on Monday, September 3.  We will not offer an NFL preview this year.  We have noticed that since the Colin Kaepernick affair began, that the numbers of you reading our NFL-themed presentations have declined by 50% or more, while the number of patrons reading the college ratings and forecasts have increased by almost 50%.  This is about the same as with TV ratings, as the NFL Hall of Fame Game experienced its lowest ratings in over 20 years, and season ticket sales are off at almost every stadium.

For those wondering about out money line and/or teaser selections, we are leaning toward going only with straight wagers this season.  Our 4-year winning streak with the money line picks ended last year, when we could only win 51% of the time, which counts as a loss against the vigorish.  The one thing in our favor, is that we our wagers are always imaginary.  We neither win nor lose no matter the outcome of the games.

We do know there are a number of you that follow this site because you have statistical data that gives you a decided edge in your professional wagering.  Please be advised that our algorithms have experienced major alterations this year, and our ratings are not going to be the same as prior years.

Additionally, we have ended our retrodictive ratings, which required us to keep two separate databases.  These were excellent ways to rank the teams in order, but we know most of you are looking for predictive ratings and not rankings.

Here’s to an exciting season!

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