The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 10, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 6: October 11-15, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:23 am

Coming To The First Turn

Now that all 32 teams have played at least one quarter of their scheduled games, it is time to take our first look at the playoff picture.  Oddly, if the season were to end today, the 12 teams that would qualify for the playoffs are the same 12 many project to make the playoffs.  The only differences are which teams will be division champions and which teams will be wildcards.  We here believe there are still a couple of spots to be decided, so here is a look at each division.

 

AFC East

Can New England not win this division?  Maybe if the entire team gets food poisoning three or four times on the eve of games, but even then, the Patriots might win this division at 9-7.

 

The Jets are a team in turmoil, and 7-9 looks like the best this team can do.  Miami and Buffalo are not going to get to 8-8 either, so New England will run away from its three rivals.

 

AFC North

Last year, Baltimore won the division by tiebreaker over Pittsburgh, with the Steelers and Cincinnati both earning wildcard spots.  There very well could be a repeat this year.  Baltimore and Pittsburgh both look like 11-5 teams, while Cincinnati may fight it out with Indianapolis and Denver for the 6th playoff spot, when the three contend for 9-7 records.

 

AFC South

Just like the AFC East, Houston has basically already secured the division title.  With Jacksonville and Tennessee being two of the three weakest teams in the NFL, Indianapolis has a chance to sneak into the wildcard picture playing an easy slate.  The Colts still play the Titans twice, the Jaguars once, and they also face Cleveland, Miami, Buffalo, Detroit, and Kansas City.  That’s eight winnable games left, not including a visit to the Jets this week.  Indy has a chance to take the last playoff spot.

 

AFC West

There is something about San Diego that makes it hard to call them a lock to win this once-again weak division.  The Chargers are too inconsistent to feel like a safe bet to win the West.  The Monday night game with Denver gives SD a chance to open a two-game lead in the race.  That would put them at 4-2 with Cleveland, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay on the schedule before the rematch with Denver.  The Chargers have a brutal stretch just after Thanksgiving with Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh in consecutive weeks.  Should SD lose at Denver on November 18, there is a possible four-game skid on the horizon.

 

Denver has played most of its toughest games already with losses to the two 5-0 teams and at New England.  If they lose Monday night, the Broncos could still make up the two game deficit against San Diego, and if they beat the Chargers, Peyton Manning’s equines would hold the upper hand.

 

Only the most optimistic fans can see paths to 9-7 record for Oakland or Kansas City. 

 

NFC East

This race is still up for grabs, but if Philadelphia can cut down on its stupid mistakes (the type that are easily correctible), the Eagles could pull away in the second half of the season.  We see a 10-6 season in the offing for Andy Reid’s team.

 

The Giants finish the season at home against the Eagles.  They have the talent to stay in contention all year, and if Philly continues to struggle maintaining possession of the ball, the defending Super Bowl champs could finish on top once again.

 

Dallas owns a victory over the Giants and has yet to play the Eagles or Redskins.  Even with all their woes, the Cowboys could recover in time to knock off their division rivals and sneak to the top. 

 

Washington is exciting to watch with RG3, but the best the Redskins can hope for is 8-8. 

 

This is one division where the outcome is far from being decided after five weeks.  Three of the four teams remain in contention.

 

NFC North

This is starting to look like a repeat of 1968 in the old black and blue division.  Green Bay was expected to win the old NFL Central Division with Chicago and Detroit close behind and an improving Minnesota team becoming just strong enough to become a real menace. 

 

That year, Green Bay did everything but win.  Packers’ quarterback Bart Starr led the NFL in passing efficiency with better than a 100 rating.  Green Bay had the best scoring margin in the division, but they lost five games by one to seven points and tied another to finish 6-7-1.

 

Chicago was a team of ups and downs.  They swept Minnesota and looked like the team to beat some weeks, but they failed to show up and got it handed to themselves in other weeks.

 

Detroit never got untracked that year.  The Lions had a great passing game with Bill Munson throwing to Charlie Sanders and Earl McCulloch, but their defense let them down too many times, and their offense really only clicked against the weaker teams.

 

Minnesota snuck through and won their first division title with a team lacking stars.  They did just enough to win a little more than they lost.

 

Look at how things are eerily similar in 2012.  Green Bay is sitting at 2-3 after getting hosed in Seattle and losing a tough game at Indianapolis when the Colts were playing for their ill head coach.  The Packers almost must win this week at 5-0 Houston to stay in the race, and they could easily fall to 2-4 looking at a trip to now tough St. Louis.  Green Bay must still play Arizona, the Giants, and Chicago (at Soldier Field) plus twice against Minnesota.  It doesn’t look hopeful this year for the Packers.

 

Detroit is sinking in the October sunset.  The Lions are 1-3 with a difficult stretch on the schedule—road games against Philadelphia and Chicago.  1-5 is not out of the question, but recovering from 1-5 is.

 

Chicago was embarrassed at Lambeau Field in week two, but the Bears looked almost like the 1985 edition last week against Jacksonville.  Coming out of the bye this week, Chicago hosts Detroit and Carolina and plays at Tennessee, so they could be looking at a 7-1 record at the halfway point.  The second half of the schedule is more difficult, but a 4-4 finish would put the Bears in the playoffs.

 

Minnesota is 4-1 after many prognosticators believed they would contend for the first pick in the 2013 draft.  The Vikings did fatten up on Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Detroit, three teams with a combined 3-11 record, but they also own a win over San Francisco.  The Vikings could be looking at a 10-6 record, and that would get them in as a wildcard team.

 

AFC South

Atlanta is in the same boat with New England and Houston.  The Falcons would have to implode not to win the division.  With a 3 1/2-game lead over Tampa Bay and 4-game lead over Carolina and New Orleans, the dirty birds are playing for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs at this point.  If they can win at Philadelphia, it will give Atlanta a legitimate path to a 16-0 season, but we do not see the Falcons running the table.  Still 14-2 is quite possible.

 

AFC West

My have the frail risen!  What was once the weakest division of all, where a 7-9 team won the division, has now become a division where no team may finish with a losing record.  It has happened six times before.  In 2008, both the NFC East and NFC South produced no teams with losing records.  Washington and New Orleans finished last in their divisions at 8-8.  In 2007, The NFC East did it again with the Redskins finishing fourth at 8-8.  The AFC South did so as well that year with Houston finishing last at 8-8.  In 2002, the AFC East featured the Jets, Dolphins, and Patriots finishing 9-7 with Buffalo at 8-8, and the AFC West pulled the trick with Kansas City and San Diego finishing 8-8 behind Oakland and Denver. 

 

San Francisco should win this race by three or more games, but Arizona, Seattle, and St. Louis could all contend for wildcard bids.  Arizona has a very difficult schedule after this week with seven tough games in their final 10.  The Cardinals could very well come back to the pack.  Seattle has a chance to go 9-7, but we cannot see the Seahawks finishing any higher and no lower than 8-8.  The Rams benefit from playing a last place schedule, and at 3-2, they actually have the best chance of getting to 10-6, especially if they win at Miami this weekend.

 

This Week’s Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New York Giants

104.7

103.4

104.7

105.0

1.5

Philadelphia Eagles

102.2

101.1

101.7

101.5

4

Dallas Cowboys

97.9

98.4

98.8

99.0

2.5

Washington Redskins

95.8

97.1

98.1

99.0

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Chicago Bears

108.8

108.1

106.1

106.0

2.5

Green Bay Packers

103.8

102.3

100.9

101.0

3

Minnesota Vikings

99.3

100.5

102.2

103.5

3.5

Detroit Lions

98.4

98.4

96.4

91.5

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Atlanta Falcons

106.4

108.5

105.7

106.5

2

New Orleans Saints

100.1

100.0

97.2

96.5

3.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

95.9

97.4

96.9

97.5

3.5

Carolina Panthers

94.0

94.8

96.7

94.0

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

San Francisco 49ers

111.0

111.6

107.5

108.0

3

Arizona Cardinals

101.2

102.6

105.2

104.0

3.5

Seattle Seahawks

100.6

101.3

100.8

100.5

4

St. Louis Rams

98.1

98.8

99.8

100.5

3.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New England Patriots

109.6

107.7

105.6

106.5

1

Miami Dolphins

100.2

99.4

99.7

100.0

1.5

New York Jets

98.5

98.1

97.0

97.0

2

Buffalo Bills

95.4

92.9

97.9

95.5

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Baltimore Ravens

105.5

105.8

105.4

105.0

4.5

Pittsburgh Steelers

103.5

102.9

101.4

103.5

3

Cincinnati Bengals

99.8

99.5

101.6

101.5

2.5

Cleveland Browns

92.9

93.9

93.4

91.0

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Houston Texans

109.7

110.1

108.9

108.0

3

Indianapolis Colts

93.1

94.3

97.6

100.0

3

Tennessee Titans

91.1

92.0

91.6

91.5

3.5

Jacksonville Jaguars

90.0

90.9

91.5

92.0

0.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Denver Broncos

104.7

102.9

100.7

99.5

3.5

San Diego Chargers

101.3

102.3

102.7

102.0

2.5

Kansas City Chiefs

94.1

92.2

93.8

94.0

3

Oakland Raiders

92.1

90.7

92.8

93.5

4

 

This Week’s Games

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vintage

Vegas

Totals

Pittsburgh TENNESSEE

9.9

8.4

7.3

9.5

5.5

42

Cincinnati CLEVELAND

4.4

3.1

5.7

8

1

44

N Y JETS Indianapolis

8.9

7.3

2.9

0.5

3

42.5

TAMPA BAY Kansas City

5.8

9.2

7.1

7.5

3

40

ATLANTA Oakland

16.8

20.3

15.4

15.5

9.5

48.5

BALTIMORE Dallas

10.6

10.4

9.6

9

3.5

44

PHILADELPHIA Detroit

6.3

5.2

7.8

12.5

4.5

47.5

MIAMI St. Louis

5.1

3.6

2.9

2.5

3

37.5

New England SEATTLE

6

3.4

1.8

3

3.5

45

ARIZONA Buffalo

9.8

13.7

11.3

12.5

4.5

43

Minnesota WASHINGTON

1

0.9

1.6

2

NL

NL

SAN FRANCISCO N Y Giants

8.8

10.7

5.3

10.5

4.5

44.5

HOUSTON Green Bay

7.4

9.3

9.5

8.5

3.5

48

Denver SAN DIEGO

0.9

-1.9

-4.5

-5

-1

49.5

 

October 3, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 5: October 4-8, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:22 pm

Information About Our New PiRate Vintage Rating

We introduced, or rather re-introduced the Vintage Rating this year both for the college and NFL ratings.  These two new/old ratings are not the same and use somewhat different statistical information.  The reason for this is that we have access to a lot more beneficial statistical data with the NFL than with college football.

 

Our original rating that our current Vintage Rating was modeled after used simple offensive and defensive statistics with a little splash of special teams stats thrown in.  For 1980, this was a nice way to look at the NFL.  For instance, in 1980, we looked at yards per play on offense and defense and compared it with the league norms.  We then looked at turnovers and strength of schedule and used trial and error to come up with the best statistical fit for all this data.  We actually weighted those stats five different ways and took the average to come up with a rating.

 

In current times, we have access to much better statistical values.  For instance, we now have adjusted yards per pass attempt, which calculates yards per pass attempt, yards lost from sacks, and yards lost from interceptions, which comes to about 45 if you believe the football equivalent of Sabrematricians.

 

We have access to stats that tell us whether a running back that rushes for 50 yards on 15 carries is better or worse than another running back that rushes for 60 yards on 15 carries.  In the past, the back that rushed for 60 was obviously better.  Today, we know that isn’t always the case.  The back that rushes for 50 yards on 15 carries might get the ball on 3rd and one several times per game, where his coach calls for a quick dive play in the A-gap.  What if the 50-yard back got the ball three times at the opponents’ one yard line?  If he scored three touchdowns in those attempts, this counts for a lot more than the one-yard average from those three attempts.

 

Conversely, what if the 60-yard rusher picked up 15 yards on a draw in a 3rd and 25 situation?  What if he picked up another 15 yards on the last play of the first half, when his team was at its own 20, and the defense was in a dime package prevent? 

 

There are stats now that judge whether each team (and each back) achieved success or failed on each running attempt.  There are multiple sites online that show this type of data.  We use a lot of these factors and calculate the strength of the opponent to determine how good each team’s offense, defense, and special teams are.  We then have a root calculation for each statistical figure, and from this, we come up with a raw rating.  A constant is added to turn this raw root into a point spread.  Finally, we take the mean of the 32 ratings and add or subtract to each team’s rating a constant that brings the league average to 100.0.  All of our PiRate Ratings should average 100.0, so when you see one team rated at 104.6, you know they are 4.6 points better than the average team.

 

The Regular PiRate, PiRate Mean, and PiRate Biased Ratings are completely different from the Vintage Ratings.  There is very little correlation between the original three NFL ratings and this new Vintage.  The PiRate, PiRate Mean, and PiRate Bias use identical data; the only difference is how we weight it.  The regular PiRate weights it how we believe is best in the 2010’s.  The Mean weights everything equally; and the Biased weights it the way we weighted it in the 1990’s.  The Biased Rating was our PiRate Rating from 1985 to 2001.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New York Giants

104.0

102.9

102.7

102.0

1

Philadelphia Eagles

102.0

101.5

103.5

104.5

3.5

Dallas Cowboys

97.9

97.0

98.8

99.5

2.5

Washington Redskins

96.0

96.3

97.7

98.5

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Green Bay Packers

106.4

104.1

102.7

103.5

2.5

Chicago Bears

106.3

106.8

103.7

101.5

3

Detroit Lions

98.4

97.2

99.0

97.0

2

Minnesota Vikings

96.9

100.7

100.2

101.0

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Atlanta Falcons

106.2

107.4

105.7

107.0

2.5

New Orleans Saints

99.3

93.3

95.9

96.5

3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

95.9

95.1

96.3

97.0

3

Carolina Panthers

94.8

93.2

99.1

98.5

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

San Francisco 49ers

108.0

108.4

106.1

106.0

4

Arizona Cardinals

103.5

109.7

107.0

105.5

1

Seattle Seahawks

100.1

102.1

100.3

99.5

2.5

St. Louis Rams

95.8

97.2

98.1

99.0

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New England Patriots

109.3

111.7

104.7

104.0

3

Miami Dolphins

99.1

100.9

98.5

97.5

3

New York Jets

98.5

96.9

97.9

98.0

2

Buffalo Bills

98.1

95.0

100.7

99.5

3.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Baltimore Ravens

105.8

108.9

106.4

105.5

3

Pittsburgh Steelers

103.7

101.0

100.0

101.5

2.5

Cincinnati Bengals

100.6

100.3

101.5

101.0

2.5

Cleveland Browns

93.6

94.6

95.0

93.0

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Houston Texans

110.0

113.7

109.1

107.0

1.5

Tennessee Titans

93.8

90.9

92.0

91.5

3

Jacksonville Jaguars

92.5

93.6

93.7

94.0

2

Indianapolis Colts

90.2

92.0

93.6

95.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Denver Broncos

105.0

107.8

102.7

101.0

2.5

San Diego Chargers

102.1

101.1

102.6

102.0

2.5

Kansas City Chiefs

93.8

88.7

93.3

94.5

2

Oakland Raiders

92.1

90.1

91.5

91.5

2.5

 

 

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
Arizona ST. LOUIS 4.7 9.5 5.9 3.5 1    39 1/2
Atlanta WASHINGTON 7.7 8.6 5.5 6.0 3    50 1/2
PITTSBURGH Philadelphia 4.2 2.0 -1.0 -0.5 3 1/2 43   
Green Bay

 

INDIANAPOLIS 13.7 9.6 6.6 6.0 7    47 1/2
N Y GIANTS Cleveland 11.4 9.3 8.7 10.0 9 1/2 44    
MINNESOTA Tennessee 6.1 12.8 11.2 12.5 5 1/2 44   
CINCINNATI Miami 4.0 1.9 5.5 6.0 3 1/2 45   
Baltimore KANSAS CITY 7.0 18.2 11.1 9.0 6    46 1/2
Seattle CAROLINA 1.3 4.9 -2.8 -3.0 -3    43 1/2
Chicago JACKSONVILLE 11.8 11.2 8.0 5.5 6    40   
NEW ENGLAND Denver 7.3 6.9 5.0 6.0 7    51 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO Buffalo 13.9 17.4 9.4 10.5 10    44 1/2
NEW ORLEANS

 

San Diego 0.2 -4.8 -3.7 -3.5 3 1/2 54   
Houston

 

N Y JETS 9.5 14.8 9.2 7.0 9    41 1/2

 

September 26, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 4: September 27-30, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:41 am

The Lance Easley Saga

We were going to leave this issue alone.  Then, more information emerged that made this commentary mandatory. 

 

Giving a junior college and Division 3 college referee the task of officiating a NFL game, is like giving a Cessna pilot the left seat in a 747.  Putting it on Monday Night Football is like making him the pilot of Air Force One.

 

Tuesday, USA Today reported that infamous Side Judge Lance Easley, the referee who signaled the touchdown call in Monday night’s Packers-Seahawks game, was a high school and junior college official in California.  By all appearances, he is an exemplary member of his community—a respected banker and member of the Fellowship of Christian Athletes.

 

It is not his fault that pro football has suffered its biggest black eye since deciding to play games on November 24, 1963. 

 

The news surface quickly on Tuesday that Easley had attended an officiating academy twice this summer to gain competence and ability to officiate in Division 1 college games.  Division 1 in this case means FCS as well as FBS, so when the instructors deemed he was not ready to officiate at that level, they were in essence stating he was not ready to officiate this week’s Bryant-Wagner game.

 

Also Tuesday, the news emerged that the gimmicky Lingerie Football League had fired referees that are now working NFL games.  This is perhaps the most damning news of all. 

 

The NFL will apparently not back down and continue to try to force the referees back without offering any concessions.  This could lead to something major happening before the end of the season.

 

The players are now getting emotional over this issue.  Some are indicating that the player’s union should sympathize with the officials and call for a player strike.  The NFL cannot handle this; it would cost them much more than settling with the officials.

 

If this seed starts to sprout, look for the officials to begin to want more in their bargaining agreement.

 

All of this could have been avoided if not for the greed of the management.  What the officials want would cost the league about a nickel on every ticket sold.  Ticket prices escalate by a couple dollars every year, and five cents going to the officials is a drop in the bucket.

 

However the owners are greedy folks.  Without naming names, I personally know that one billionaire owner has been known to shut off the air conditioning to his employees’ offices on the weekends to save about $90 a month. 

 

The NFL believes incorrectly that they can continue the current status quo and not lose any support.  They believe their fans are “sheeple” and will continue to watch these games even if half of the calls are made incorrectly.  Major League baseball thought this same thing.  It was a different set of circumstances that led to our national pastime’s demise, but it was the same incorrect paradigm.

 

Baseball really blew it when they started to expand the number of teams and the number of teams in the postseason.  They ruined their exceptional pennant races, where teams had to prove they were the best for six months.  Today, all the talk is about who will win the wildcard spots.  There can be no 1964’s in baseball any more.  You will never again see a repeat of the 1967 American League pennant race.  Look at 2012.  Four of the six divisions have already been decided, and a fifth will only settle which team will win the division and which will be a wildcard.

 

Let’s look at baseball if the current situation was like it was in the days when baseball was as important as the NFL is today.  If there were just two teams advancing to the postseason (The World Series), look at the fabulous pennant races we would have today.  In the American League, Texas would hold a two-game lead over the Yankees, with Baltimore 3 ½ games back and Oakland four games back.  All four teams would still be in the race, an exciting race that would go down to the final games.  We do not need a team that is 10 games over .500 (Detroit/Chisox) to have a chance to play in the World Series.  In the National League, Washington and Cincinnati would be tied with Atlanta still in the race four games back.  Why are the Dodgers and Brewers, both at 79-75, still in the race for a playoff spot?  The sixth month pennant race means very little.  Having no interleague play like it should be would mean that the nation could only speculate about the World Series.  Now, it can be a rematch from the regular season.

 

The NFL is walking down this same incorrect path.  Already, it is a travesty that 9-7 teams can win the Super Bowl, much less make the playoffs.  There should be no more than eight playoff teams, the winners of each division.  We believe there should be four divisions of eight teams with only four playoff teams.

 

Every shot to the bough of the NFL ship brings on a little more water.  A few thousand fans may have been lost this week, but the NFL will not notice it—yet.  This league is just as fallible as Major League baseball.  People looking for entertainment want to see what they perceive is a legitimate performance.  This is not.  People, including this one, will turn away and stop watching the games until NFL officials are officiating.  It is strictly boxscore reading until then.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New York Giants

104.1

103.2

104.8

105.5

0.5

Philadelphia Eagles

101.9

102.5

103.0

103.5

3

Dallas Cowboys

100.4

100.2

101.9

103.0

4

Washington Redskins

95.5

98.3

96.1

95.5

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Green Bay Packers

107.2

102.6

102.1

102.5

3.5

Chicago Bears

104.1

100.6

103.4

103.0

3.5

Detroit Lions

100.4

101.0

100.1

98.5

2.5

Minnesota Vikings

95.4

97.4

99.2

101.0

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Atlanta Falcons

107.5

105.3

104.6

106.5

1.5

New Orleans Saints

98.0

97.9

93.8

91.5

3.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

96.4

96.5

96.5

97.5

2.5

Carolina Panthers

93.5

97.2

96.7

93.0

1.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

San Francisco 49ers

105.6

105.8

105.0

105.0

4

Arizona Cardinals

104.3

101.9

105.1

106.0

3.5

Seattle Seahawks

100.8

102.8

101.6

101.5

2.5

St. Louis Rams

94.8

95.0

95.9

96.5

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New England Patriots

107.0

106.4

103.0

103.5

1

New York Jets

101.3

101.3

101.1

101.5

4.5

Buffalo Bills

99.8

98.1

100.7

99.5

4

Miami Dolphins

98.0

98.8

95.8

93.0

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Baltimore Ravens

107.0

105.5

105.5

105.0

4.5

Pittsburgh Steelers

103.7

102.0

99.2

100.5

4.5

Cincinnati Bengals

99.4

100.1

101.7

101.5

2

Cleveland Browns

92.4

93.8

93.8

92.0

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Houston Texans

109.5

106.9

107.2

106.5

2

Tennessee Titans

94.3

96.0

97.5

99.0

2

Jacksonville Jaguars

93.8

95.5

94.9

95.0

2.5

Indianapolis Colts

90.2

92.7

93.0

94.0

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Denver Broncos

102.8

101.0

101.4

101.5

1.5

San Diego Chargers

101.3

101.9

102.1

102.0

3

Kansas City Chiefs

95.0

96.0

96.4

97.0

2

Oakland Raiders

94.3

95.8

97.1

98.5

2

 

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vintage

Vegas

Totals

BALTIMORE Cleveland

19.1

16.2

16.2

17.5

12 1/2

43 1/2

New England BUFFALO

3.2

4.3

-1.7

0.0

4   

52   

DETROIT Minnesota

7.5

6.1

3.4

0.0

4 1/2

NL

ATLANTA Carolina

15.5

9.6

9.4

15.0

7   

48 1/2

N. Y. JETS San Francisco

0.2

0.0

0.6

1.0

-4   

40 1/2

San Diego KANSAS CITY

4.3

3.9

3.7

3.0

-1   

45   

HOUSTON Tennessee

17.2

12.9

11.7

9.5

12   

45   

Seattle ST. LOUIS

2.0

3.8

1.7

1.0

2 1/2

38 1/2

ARIZONA Miami

9.8

6.6

12.8

16.5

6 1/2

39 1/2

DENVER Oakland

10.0

6.7

5.8

4.5

6 1/2

47 1/2

Cincinnati JACKSONVILLE

3.1

2.1

4.3

4.0

2 1/2

42 1/2

GREENBAY New Orleans

12.7

8.2

11.8

14.5

7 1/2

54   

TAMPABAY Washington

3.4

0.7

2.9

4.5

3   

47 1/2

PHILADELPHIA N. Y. Giants

0.8

2.3

1.2

1.0

2   

46 1/2

DALLAS Chicago

0.3

3.6

2.5

4.0

3 1/2

41 1/2

 

September 19, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 3: September 20-23, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:11 am

The New Power Division

Just two years ago, the Seattle Seahawks won the NFC West Division with a 7-9-0 record.  In the previous eight seasons, only seven NFC West teams posted winning records, and never once did two teams from that division win nine games in the same season.  You have to go back to 2003 to fins two teams with winning records from this division.

 

After two weeks of the 2012 season, it looks like the NFC West will break that trend.  San Francisco might be the best team in all of football.  The 49ers won easily at Lambeau Field, and they handled Detroit in Candlestick Park Sunday night.  It is more than a small possibility that they could be 13-0 when they visit New Englandin December.

 

Arizona is also 2-0 with a win at New England.  This is without starting quarterback John Skelton.  Seattle lost at Arizona in week one and then demolished Dallas in week two.  Even St. Louis appears to be ready to challenge for a winning record.  Jeff Fisher has the Rams looking like a playoff contender after losing a close game at Detroit and then winning at home against Washington.

 

To The Contrary

The divisions expected to be the best in both conferences are a combined 8-8 so far, with all eight teams sitting at 1-1.  The NFC North has the misfortune of playing the new power division, and both Green Bay and Detroit have felt the wrath of Harbaugh.  Minnesota lost to Andrew Luck and the Colts.  The Bears have not lost out of division yet, but heading into week three, they are in more disarray than any team that is not wearing fleur de leis on their helmets.

 

In the AFC East, the Jets lost big to Pittsburgh and New England was surprised by Arizona.  Buffalo lost big to the Jets, while Miami lost big to Houston.  It is still too early to make a big assumption here, but New England faces a big game this week at Baltimore.  The Pats have not started 1-2 since 2001, but that team rallied to finish 11-5-0 and first in the division.  It was the year Tom Brady replaced Drew Bledsoe at quarterback three games into the season and guided New England to a Super Bowl Championship.

 

Comparing 2012 to 1966

What seems like a move to a predominant passing game in the 21st Century NFL compared to a former running game back in the Vince Lombardi days is mostly utter nonsense.  Let’s look at some statistics from this season compared to 1966, when Lombardi’s Packers won the NFL-AFL Championship Game in what would soon be renamed “The Super Bowl.”

 

In 2012, the average team scores 24.3 points per game.  In 1966, the NFL averaged 21.7 points per game, and the AFL averaged 22.5 points per game.  There’s very little difference there.

 

In 2012, the average team runs the ball 42% of the time and passes 58% of the time.  In 1966, the average NFL team ran the ball 49% of the time and passed 51% of the time.  The average AFL team ran the ball 46% of the time and passed 54% of the time.  In all three instances, these teams consistently averaged 63 scrimmage plays per game.  We are talking basically three more passing attempts per game these days compared to back in the days of Lombardi.  Scattered over the course of a game, the difference is negligible.

 

In 2012, the average team averages 7.0 yards per pass attempt and 11.1 yards per completion.  In 1966, the NFL averaged 6.9 yards per pass attempt and 13.4 yards per completion, while the AFL averaged 6.8 yards per attempt and 14.7 yards per completion.  Basically, today’s trend is to throw shorter passes for a higher completion percentage, while in 1966, teams tended to throw longer passes with lower completion percentages but more yards per completion.  The real difference is that teams tended to throw a couple extra long bombs in those days.  Once again, the differences are negligible, and the overall results are about the same.

 

In 2012, the average team averages 4.1 yards per rushing attempt.  In 1966, the average NFL team averaged 3.9 yards per rushing attempt, and the average AFL team averaged 4.0 yards per rushing attempt.  This miniscule difference can be explained by the simple fact that teams in 1966 always had a fullback that ran the ball.  In 3rd and short or at the goalline, teams would give the ball to their bigger, more powerful back to get two yards and a first down.  Today, teams are more liable to throw a quick pass than use a line plunge or quick trap through the A-gap to get a first down.

 

In essence, the game has changed very little since the days of Lombardi.  The main difference is that teams used two backs and a tight end almost exclusively in 1966, whereas teams almost always use just one back in 2012.  When a team used two backs today, one of those backs is only a blocker.  In 1966, the two backs split the running plays.  Some teams gave the ball more to the fullback, and some gave it more to the halfback.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Philadelphia Eagles

104.6

106.8

106.1

106.5

2

New York Giants

101.6

101.2

101.9

102.5

2

Dallas Cowboys

100.7

101.2

99.7

99.0

3

Washington Redskins

97.5

98.8

96.4

95.5

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Green Bay Packers

107.2

106.7

104.6

105.0

2

Chicago Bears

103.5

102.4

103.0

102.0

2

Detroit Lions

101.7

100.6

101.6

101.5

2

Minnesota Vikings

92.6

94.6

92.2

91.5

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Atlanta Falcons

104.5

104.9

104.9

107.0

3

New Orleans Saints

99.4

99.0

95.0

93.5

2.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

96.1

96.8

98.7

100.5

2.5

Carolina Panthers

96.0

98.8

99.6

98.5

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

San Francisco 49ers

108.4

108.4

106.7

108.0

3

Arizona Cardinals

101.6

100.8

104.1

104.0

3

Seattle Seahawks

100.8

100.6

101.7

102.5

3

St. Louis Rams

95.4

94.3

96.6

98.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New England Patriots

106.7

106.5

104.6

106.5

2.5

New York Jets

101.6

99.8

100.1

101.0

2.5

Buffalo Bills

98.2

97.1

100.6

100.0

2.5

Miami Dolphins

97.7

97.4

98.8

98.5

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Baltimore Ravens

107.3

106.0

106.7

107.0

3

Pittsburgh Steelers

106.0

102.9

101.7

104.0

2.5

Cincinnati Bengals

97.4

97.8

100.9

100.5

2

Cleveland Browns

94.0

94.3

96.4

97.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Houston Texans

109.0

107.7

108.0

108.0

2

Jacksonville Jaguars

93.4

93.1

92.1

91.5

2

Tennessee Titans

93.0

94.4

92.6

92.0

2.5

Indianapolis Colts

90.6

93.0

95.4

98.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

San Diego Chargers

104.3

104.5

103.2

103.0

3.5

Denver Broncos

103.3

102.5

101.8

101.0

3

Kansas City Chiefs

93.6

93.1

91.2

90.0

2

Oakland Raiders

92.0

94.0

92.9

93.0

3

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Team in all CAPS

Vegas Spread as of: Wednesday, September 19 @ 9AM EDT

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vintage

Vegas

Totals

New York Giants CAROLINA

3.1

-0.1

-0.2

1.5

Pk

50 1/2

CHICAGO St. Louis

10.1

10.1

8.4

6

9

44 1/2

DALLAS Tampa Bay

7.6

7.4

4

1.5

8

46 1/2

San Francisco MINNESOTA

13.3

11.3

12

14

8

43

Detroit TENNESSEE

6.2

3.7

6.5

7

3

46 1/2

WASHINGTON Cincinnati

2.6

3.5

-2

-2.5

3 1/2

49

New York Jets MIAMI

1.4

-0.1

1.2

0

2 1/2

40

NEW ORLEANS Kansas City

8.3

8.4

6.3

6

9 1/2

52 1/2

Buffalo CLEVELAND

1.7

0.3

1.7

0.5

2 1/2

43 1/2

Jacksonville INDIANAPOLIS

0.3

-2.4

-5.8

-9

-2 1/2

41 1/2

ARIZONA Philadelphia

0

-3

1

0.5

4

43 1/2

SAN DIEGO Atlanta

3.3

3.1

1.8

-0.5

3

47 1/2

Houston DENVER

2.7

2.2

3.2

4

Pk

46

Pittsburgh OAKLAND

11

5.9

5.8

8

4

44 1/2

BALTIMORE New England

3.6

2.5

5.1

3.5

2 1/2

44 1/2

Green Bay SEATTLE

3.4

3.1

-0.1

-0.5

3

46 1/2

September 13, 2012

PiRate Ratings College & NFL Picks For September 13-16, 2012

PiRate Picks—College Football for September 13-15, 2012

After 6-7 and 4-5 starts, we hope you have taken this advice and not used our college choices with your hard-earned income.  You may have noticed that our Vintage Ratings have done quite well against the spread in the first two weeks, posting a 60%+ accuracy (49-32) in all games.  That’s the rub; nobody can play 40 games a week.  So, that information is useless to us.

 

We will continue with what we think we know and hope what we think is real.  We will go with 11 selections this week—two straight sides, two money line parlays, and seven sweetheart teasers.  To date, the teasers have been winners (62.5% on the 10-pointers).

 

1. Minnesota -2 ½ vs. Western Michigan

 

2. Indiana -2 ½ vs. Ball State

 

We rarely take short favorites and almost always do it only when they are at home against a team from a lesser conference.  Minnesota and Indiana have recent reputations for being really lousy teams.  Western Michigan is a bowl team for sure, while Ball State will struggle to win five or six games.  We are going with the Big Ten schools at home because we feel that both would win 75% of the time on a neutral field against these opponents.  The Gophers and Hoosiers may not have exceptional talent, and their MAC opponents may have better skilled position players.  However, as their games move into the latter parts of the third quarters, the interior lines are going to wear down the smaller teams.  IU and UM have depth in the lines, and by the fourth quarter, we believe Minny will be able to pound the ball down the field and Indy will be able to sting BSU with the short passing game.  We see both Big Ten schools winning by 5-12 points.

 

3. Money Line Parlay @ +101

Purdue over Eastern Michigan

Ohio State over California

Alabama over Arkansas

Mississippi State over Troy

San Jose State over Colorado State

Texas A&M over S M U

 

4. Money Line Parlay @ -113

Virginia Tech over Pittsburgh

Fresno State over Colorado

Boise State over Miami (O)

T C U over Kansas

Central Florida over Florida International

 

5. 10-point Teaser

Rutgers +17 ½ vs. South Florida

Texas A&M – 2 ½ vs. SMU

Virginia Tech Pk vs. Pittsburgh

 

6. 10-point Teaser

Stanford +17 ½ vs. Southern Cal

Ohio State -6 ½ vs. California

Georgia Tech – ½ vs. Virginia

 

7. 10-point Teaser

Ohio U +3 ½ vs. Marshall

San Jose State -1 vs. Colorado State

U T E P -2 ½ vs. New Mexico State

 

8. 13-point Teaser

Navy +18 ½ vs. Penn State

Navy & Penn State UNDER 59

Michigan & Massachusetts OVER 44 ½

Connecticut +10 ½ vs. Maryland

 

9. 13-point Teaser

Southern California & Stanford OVER 43 ½

Stanford +17 ½ vs. Southern California

East Carolina & Southern Mississippi OVER 42

Texas +3 ½ vs. Ole Miss

 

10. 13-point Teaser

T C U -8 vs. Kansas

T C U & Kansas UNDER 72 ½

Minnesota +10 ½ vs. Western Michigan

Texas Tech -20 ½ vs. New Mexico

 

11. 13-point Teaser

Florida +16 vs. Tennessee

Notre Dame +19 vs. Michigan State

Indiana +10 ½ vs. Ball State

Fresno State -1 vs. Colorado

________________________________________________________________________

 

PiRate Picks—NFL for September 13-16, 2012

Our NFL picks for week one were rather disappointing.  Our 15 picks we released went a pathetic 6-9, and our contest picks finished 2-3 with a total loss of net loss of $11,800 in our competition bank account, bringing our funds down to $988,200.  By the way, the rules for this contest are that each selection has to be based on $10,000 stakes.  Our wins were worth $10,000 and $10,800 (winning a money line parlay at +108).

 

Once again, the PiRate Ratings themselves finished much better when picking every game against the spread.  Our opening week finished 10-6.  The Vintage Ratings did even better, going 9-5 (the other two rated games were the same as the Line).

 

It is too early to gauge whether the Vintage Ratings give us a real angle, but since both the College & Pro Vintage Ratings did so well, we will monitor that to see if it is a real trend.

 

This week, we do not really love any of the possible sides.  They are too close to what we think the lines should be.  However, we feel like there is going to be a continued semi-parity, so we find more value in the sweetheart teasers than normal.  Let’s hope we aren’t seeing a mirage.

 

1. 10-point Teaser

Minnesota Pk vs. Indianapolis

New Orleans +7 ½ vs. Carolina

New Orleans & Carolina OVER 41

 

2. 10-point Teaser

Buffalo & Kansas City OVER 35

New York Jets +15 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

San Diego +4 vs. Tennessee

 

3. 13-point Teaser

Chicago +18 ½ vs. Green Bay

New York Giants +5 ½ vs. Tampa Bay

Baltimore +15 ½ vs. Philadelphia

Baltimore & Philadelphia UNDER 59 ½

 

4. 13-point Teaser

Miami +15 ½ vs. Oakland

Oakland +10 ½ vs. Miami

Miami & Oakland OVER 26

Miami & Oakland UNDER 52

 

5. 13-point Teaser

Cleveland & Cincinnati OVER 25 ½

Seattle +16 vs. Dallas

Seattle & Dallas OVER 28 ½

San Diego & Tennessee OVER 30

 

6. 13-point Teaser

St. Louis +16 vs. Washington

St. Louis & Washington UNDER 58 ½

San Francisco & Detroit UNDER 59

Denver +16 vs. Atlanta

 

7. Money Line Parlay @ -118

New York Giants over Tampa Bay

New England over Arizona

San Francisco over Detroit

________________________________________________________________________

 

Here are our contest picks submitted Wednesday, so there are different odds than those above.

 

1. Chicago +7 vs. Green Bay $11,000 to win $10,000

 

2. 10-point Teaser $11,000 to win $10,000

New Orleans + 7 ½ vs. Carolina

Oakland & Miami OVER 29

Houston +3 vs. Jacksonville

 

3. 10-point Teaser $11,000 to win $10,000

N. Y. Jets +15 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

Dallas & Seattle OVER 31 ½

San Diego +4 vs. Tennessee

 

4. 13-point Teaser $12,000 to win $10,000

New England – ½ vs. Arizona

New Orleans & Carolina OVER 38

Baltimore +15 ½ vs. Philadelphia

Cleveland & Cincinnati OVER 25 ½

 

5. 13-point Teaser $12,000 to win $10,000

St. Louis +16 vs. Washington

Tennessee & San Diego OVER 30

San Francisco +6 vs. Detroit

Denver +16 vs. Atlanta

 

September 12, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 2: September 13-16, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:39 am

Very few surprises dotted the week one schedule in the NFL.  Washington began the RG3 era with a high-powered upset of the New Orleans Saints, but a lot of folks worried the Saints would have trouble this year.  The two New York teams made headlines; the Giants lost at home to the Cowboys, while the Jets looked more like they were playing Savannah State than the Buffalo Bills.  After scoring one TD in the second half of one preseason game, they bombed the Bills with 48 points.

 

After one week, the Harbaugh brothers look like they could be on a collision course.  San Francisco won at Green Bay and looked even stronger than last season.  Baltimore looked like a co-favorite with New England after manhandling the Bengals.

 

We see a handful of games that look exciting this week.  New Orleans and Carolina face off in Charlotte with the loser headed to a 0-2 start.  Look for A-games from both teams after the Saints’ defense and Panthers’ offense failed to get the job done last week.

 

Minnesota could be 2-0 on Sunday afternoon; the Vikings face Indianapolis, and with Green Bay possibly losing to Chicago and Detroit possibly losing to San Francisco, the Vikings could be all alone in first place in the old black and blue division.

 

Our two favorite games this week are Baltimore at Philadelphia, and the Jets at Pittsburgh.  The Eagles looked pedestrian in their win over the Browns, while the Steelers’ defense looked lost at time against Peyton Manning and the Broncos.  If the Ravens win and the Steelers lose, Baltimore will already be in the driver’s seat in the AFC North.

 

Here are this week’s four ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Philadelphia Eagles

104.1

105.6

106.3

107.0

2

Dallas Cowboys

103.1

102.2

101.7

101.5

2.5

New York Giants

101.6

106.2

103.8

103.0

2.5

Washington Redskins

98.0

94.1

96.5

97.5

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Green Bay Packers

105.6

107.6

104.0

103.0

2

Chicago Bears

105.1

99.8

103.3

103.0

2

Detroit Lions

102.0

102.8

102.6

102.0

2.5

Minnesota Vikings

93.0

94.2

93.9

94.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Atlanta Falcons

103.9

102.3

101.5

100.5

3

New Orleans Saints

101.4

105.6

100.5

100.5

2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

95.5

92.6

95.9

97.0

2.5

Carolina Panthers

95.2

97.8

99.2

98.5

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

San Francisco 49ers

108.1

105.5

103.7

104.5

3

Arizona Cardinals

99.0

99.7

99.7

98.0

2.5

Seattle Seahawks

98.1

99.0

98.9

99.0

2.5

St. Louis Rams

94.6

93.0

94.6

95.5

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New England Patriots

108.5

108.7

104.9

106.5

3.5

New York Jets

104.1

101.2

101.9

103.5

2.5

Buffalo Bills

95.9

96.5

99.8

98.5

3

Miami Dolphins

95.2

98.9

97.6

95.5

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Baltimore Ravens

107.8

104.8

104.8

104.5

3

Pittsburgh Steelers

103.8

105.4

102.9

105.0

2

Cincinnati Bengals

97.1

98.8

101.3

100.5

2

Cleveland Browns

94.3

95.1

96.6

96.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Houston Texans

107.3

103.3

105.3

105.5

2

Tennessee Titans

96.1

98.7

97.6

97.0

2.5

Jacksonville Jaguars

94.8

95.0

93.8

93.0

2.5

Indianapolis Colts

90.2

92.2

91.3

91.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Denver Broncos

103.7

98.9

100.1

100.0

3

San Diego Chargers

101.7

101.9

100.4

99.5

3.5

Kansas City Chiefs

96.4

97.9

99.0

99.5

2

Oakland Raiders

94.5

96.5

96.9

97.5

2

 

Here are the spreads for this week’s games

Home Team in all CAPS

Vegas line as of 12:00PM EDT on Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vintage

Vegas

Totals

GREEN BAY Chicago

2.5

3.4

-0.2

-1.0

6   

51   

N. Y. GIANTS Tampa Bay

8.6

7.6

6.9

6.0

9   

44 1/2

New Orleans CAROLINA

3.7

2.1

1.6

5.5

2 1/2

51   

NEW ENGLAND Arizona

13.0

14.6

8.5

12.5

13 1/2

48   

Minnesota INDIANAPOLIS

0.3

0.9

0.6

0.5

1   

44 1/2

Baltimore PHILADELPHIA

1.7

-0.6

2.0

3.0

-1   

46 1/2

BUFFALO Kansas City

2.5

2.0

0.6

-4.0

3   

45   

MIAMI Oakland

3.7

2.8

-0.5

-6.0

-2 1/2

37 1/2

CINCINNATI Cleveland

4.8

3.2

5.7

5.5

7   

38   

Houston JACKSONVILLE

10.0

8.7

8.9

8.5

7 1/2

41 1/2

Dallas SEATTLE

2.5

1.9

4.2

5.5

3   

41 1/2

Washington ST. LOUIS

0.9

4.0

2.8

3.0

3   

45   

PITTSBURGH N. Y. Jets

1.7

1.7

1.0

1.0

6   

41 1/2

SAN DIEGO Tennessee

9.1

9.4

11.0

11.5

7   

42 1/2

SAN FRANCISCO Detroit

9.1

8.0

7.6

11.0

7   

47   

ATLANTA Denver

3.2

5.7

2.8

2.0

3   

51   

 

Check back Thursday Afternoon for this week’s PiRate Picks for college and pro football.

 

Coming Friday: Our first look at the 2012 Presidential and Congressional races.  Yes, we have PiRate Ratings for the polls too!

September 2, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 1: September 5-9, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:41 pm

If you haven’t followed our college ratings, then you need to know about the new (old) rating the PiRate Ratings has brought back this year.

 

We call it the “PiRate Vintage Rating.”  It is actually a modification of our ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  Our creator found the old ratings in an old spiral notebook while cleaning his basement in April of this year.  After looking it over, he realized that by applying a little additional knowledge about how certain statistics affect the scores of NFL games, and with the use of a spreadsheet to back-test data for the last dozen years, he formulized a new rating.  The Vintage Rating is 100% independent of the other PiRate Ratings, so it will be interesting to see how it fares compared to the PiRate, PiRate Mean, and PiRate Biased ratings.  These three ratings are computed from the same set of data with different formulae.  The Vintage Ratings use only full and half points.

 

Remember this before continuing.  We strongly urge you not to rely on these ratings to pick games against the spread.  Yes, it is true that last year, our regular PiRate Ratings at 56%+ against the spread were the most accurate NFL ratings against the spread of the 75 or so national computer ratings that participate in Todd Beck’s “Prediction Tracker.”  However, we picked 81 NFL selections against the spread (for fun and not for investment) and were correct just 53.2% of the time 42-37-2.  There is only one way to really win in Vegas or offshore:  you have to be part of an elite syndicate of players with access to a supercomputer that can interpret rooms full of data and find consistent facts that win over time.  It has been done, because there are people that have been cut off from all the books or reduced to small maximums.  If you are one of those people, you most definitely are not reading this.

 

Without further adieu, here are our initial NFL ratings:

 

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Philadelphia Eagles

104.6

105.6

106.3

107.0

2

New York Giants

103.3

106.2

103.8

103.0

3

Dallas Cowboys

101.4

102.2

101.7

101.5

2.5

Washington Redskins

95.9

94.1

96.5

97.5

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Green Bay Packers

107.7

107.6

104.0

103.0

3

Chicago Bears

104.0

99.8

103.3

103.0

2

Detroit Lions

103.2

102.8

102.6

102.0

2.5

Minnesota Vikings

93.0

94.2

93.9

94.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New Orleans Saints

103.5

105.6

100.5

100.5

2

Atlanta Falcons

102.2

102.3

101.5

100.5

3

Carolina Panthers

95.5

97.8

99.2

98.5

3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

95.2

92.6

95.9

97.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

San Francisco 49ers

106.0

105.5

103.7

104.5

3.5

Arizona Cardinals

99.0

99.7

99.7

98.0

2.5

Seattle Seahawks

98.1

99.0

98.9

99.0

3

St. Louis Rams

93.4

93.0

94.6

95.5

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New England Patriots

106.7

108.7

104.9

106.5

3.5

New York Jets

102.5

101.2

101.9

103.5

2.5

Buffalo Bills

97.5

96.5

99.8

98.5

3.5

Miami Dolphins

95.9

98.9

97.6

95.5

3.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Pittsburgh Steelers

106.1

105.4

102.9

105.0

2.5

Baltimore Ravens

105.4

104.8

104.8

104.5

3

Cincinnati Bengals

99.5

98.8

101.3

100.5

2

Cleveland Browns

93.8

95.1

96.6

96.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Houston Texans

106.6

103.3

105.3

105.5

2

Tennessee Titans

97.9

98.7

97.6

97.0

2.5

Jacksonville Jaguars

94.8

95.0

93.8

93.0

2.5

Indianapolis Colts

91.3

92.2

91.3

91.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Denver Broncos

101.4

98.9

100.1

100.0

3

San Diego Chargers

101.1

101.9

100.4

99.5

3

Kansas City Chiefs

98.1

97.9

99.0

99.5

2

Oakland Raiders

95.1

96.5

96.9

97.5

2

 

Here is our look at how we think the divisional standings will look on New Year’s Eve.

 

NFC East

Won

Lost

Philadelphia Eagles

10

6

New York Giants

10

6

Dallas Cowboys

7

9

Washington Redskins

5

11

 

 

 

NFC North

 

 

Green Bay Packers

12

4

Chicago Bears

12

4

Detroit Lions

9

7

Minnesota Vikings

4

12

 

 

 

NFC South

 

 

New Orleans Saints

9

7

Atlanta Falcons

10

6

Carolina Panthers

6

10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

5

11

 

 

 

NFC West

 

 

San Francisco 49ers

11

5

Arizona Cardinals

5

11

Seattle Seahawks

6

10

St. Louis Rams

5

11

 

 

 

AFC East

 

 

New England Patriots

12

4

New York Jets

7

9

Buffalo Bills

8

8

Miami Dolphins

6

10

 

 

 

AFC North

 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

12

4

Baltimore Ravens

12

4

Cincinnati Bengals

8

8

Cleveland Browns

4

12

 

 

 

AFC South

 

 

Houston Texans

11

5

Tennessee Titans

7

9

Jacksonville Jaguars

6

10

Indianapolis Colts

6

10

 

 

 

AFC West

 

 

Denver Broncos

9

7

San Diego Chargers

9

7

Kansas City Chiefs

8

8

Oakland Raiders

5

11

 

Wildcard Round

Philadelphia over New York Giants

Chicago over Atlanta

Houston over San Diego

Denver over Baltimore

 

Divisional Round

Green Bay over Chicago

San Francisco over Philadelphia

Pittsburgh over Denver

New England over Houston

 

Conference Championships

Green Bay over San Francisco

Pittsburgh over New England

 

Super Bowl XLVII

Pittsburgh over Green Bay

 

Here are the Ratings’ spreads for week one of the NFL season.

Home team is in all CAPS

If a minus (-) precedes a number in Mean, Bias, or Vintage numbers, that means the PiRate underdog is the favorite.

For example, under “Vintage,” Atlanta is listed at -1.0 vs. Kansas City.  This means Kansas City is favored by 1.0 points in this rating.

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vintage

Vegas

Totals

N. Y. GIANTS Dallas

4.9

7.0

5.1

4.5

4   

46

CHICAGO Indianapolis

14.7

9.6

14.0

14.0

9 1/2

42

Philadelphia CLEVELAND

8.3

8.0

7.2

8.5

8   

41 1/2

N. Y. JETS Buffalo

7.5

7.2

4.6

7.5

3   

40 1/2

NEW ORLEANS Washington

9.6

13.5

6.0

5.0

9 1/2

49 1/2

New England TENNESSEE

6.3

7.5

4.8

7.0

6 1/2

47 1/2

MINNESOTA Jacksonville

0.7

1.7

2.6

3.5

4   

38   

HOUSTON Miami

12.7

6.4

9.7

12.0

10 1/2

43   

DETROIT St. Louis

12.3

12.3

10.5

9.0

8 1/2

46 1/2

Atlanta KANSAS CITY

2.1

2.4

0.5

-1.0

2 1/2

42   

GREEN BAY San Francisco

4.7

5.1

3.3

1.5

5 1/2

45   

Carolina TAMPA BAY

-2.2

2.7

0.8

-1.0

2 1/2

46 1/2

ARIZONA Seattle

3.4

3.2

3.3

1.5

-2 1/2

40 1/2

DENVER Pittsburgh

-1.7

-3.5

0.2

-2.0

1   

44 1/2

BALTIMORE Cincinnati

8.9

9.0

6.5

7.0

6   

41   

San Diego OAKLAND

4.0

3.4

1.5

0.0

1 1/2

47 1/2

 

October 23, 2011

PiRate Ratings: College Football for October 25-29, 2011

A Different Look At The Bowls

You can go to a couple dozen sites to get bowl projections, but those are simply opinionated predictions.  At the PiRate Ratings, we like to look at the bowls in the same way the bowls themselves look at the teams.  We go conference-by-conference and try to act as if we were representatives of the bowls.

 

Before going further, let us not forget that we issued a challenge at the first of this year to boycott the sponsors of the bowls and to notify the sponsors of your choice that you are boycotting their products for that purpose.  This was done as a ploy to take away the only reason there is not an NCAA Playoff in FBS Football.  If corporations were to become afraid to sponsor a bowl, then the bowl cannot make money.  If there was an “Occupy the Bowls” movement, the corporate big-wigs just might decide to sponsor playoffs and not bowl games.  When that happens, there will be playoffs.

 

Okay, that said, let us look at each conference and give you their bowl tie-ins and show you which teams are on the radar screen for invitations.

 

A C C

1. BCS Automatic Bid (Orange Bowl if not Championship Game)

2. Chick-fil-A

3. Champs Sports

4. Sun

5. Belk

6. Music City

7. Independence

8. Military

Note: The ACC is the first substitute if the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl cannot fill its Pac-12 spot or if Army is not bowl eligible

 

The ACC Championship Game winner will get an automatic BCS Bowl bid, and it will be the Orange Bowl unless the champion goes to the National Championship Game.  For the Tigers to get to the title game, at least four teams from among LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Boise State, and Stanford will have to lose while CU goes 13-0.  Clemson is not a sure thing to get that far.  Virginia Tech is capable of beating the Tigers in a rematch.

 

The loser of the ACC Championship Game should end up in Atlanta in the Chick-fil-A. 

 

The next tier of teams that should get the next bowl slots are Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina.  Wake Forest and North Carolina State will fill out the last two spots.  There is a good chance that Virginia will win six games, and they could push Wake Forest for the eighth bowl spot.  In that case a 7-5 Demon Deacon team could fill in as an at-large entry in another bowl, and the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl will have an opening for an ACC team, since Army will not be bowl eligible.

 

Big East

1. BCS Automatic Bid (At-Large)

(Notre Dame is eligible for all spots below here)

2. Champs Sports

3. Belk

4. Pinstripe

5. Liberty or BVAA Compass *

6. Beef O’Brady’s

 

* The Liberty Bowl has the option of selecting a Big East team in lieu of a Conference USA team or in place of the SEC if there are not enough bowl eligible SEC teams.  See SEC for more details.

 

Cincinnati is currently on top of the Big East at 2-0, but the Bearcats still have road games with Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and Syracuse and a game at Paul Brown Stadium off campus against West Virginia.  Cinti will be in a bowl, but we are not sure they are the true favorite to make it a BCS bowl.

 

With the exception of South Florida, any of the other seven teams could win the league title.  Syracuse sure looks like the team to beat as of this week.  The Orange have a key game at Louisville this weekend.

 

Notre Dame is not headed to a BCS bowl with three losses and a road game still to play against Stanford.  The Irish will grab one of the five non-BCS bowl bids.  Counting Cincinnati and Syracuse, there will need to be three more bowl-eligible teams to fill the required slots.  Rutgers and West Virginia are sure things.  Pittsburgh and Louisville might decide the last bowl-eligible team when they face off in November.  Connecticut and South Florida are least likely to win six games.

 

Big Ten

1. BCS Automatic Bid (Rose Bowl if not Championship Game)

2. Capital One

3. Outback

4-5. Gator or

4-5. Insight

6. Meineke Car Care

7. Ticket City

8. Little Caesar’s

 

The Big Ten champion will be headed to Pasadena this year, as it is almost impossible for this league to finish in the top two of the BCS Standings.

 

Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State, and Nebraska all have just one loss and are bowl eligible.  Illinois is bowl eligible as well.  Iowa should get there this weekend after playing Minnesota.  Purdue and Ohio State, both 4-3, face off in November, and the winner of that game will finish the season with six or more wins.  If the conference sends a second team to the BCS, the Little Caesar’s Bowl could be looking to the Sunbelt to fill the vacant slot.  We think the Big Ten will miss out on getting a second BCS spot.

 

Big 12

1. BCS Automatic Bid (Fiesta Bowl if not Championship Game)

2. Cotton

3. Alamo

4. Insight

5. Holiday

6. Meineke Car Care

7. Pinstripe (Notre Dame is eligible for this if Big 12 cannot provide a team)

 

With Oklahoma losing to Texas Tech, it throws a monkey wrench into the Big 12’s “sure-thing” chance to produce two BCS Bowl teams.  Oklahoma State is the only National Championship Game possibility now, as it appears that Boise State will not fall enough in the computer rankings for a one-loss Big 12 team to pass them, especially if Georgia keeps winning in the SEC.

 

Kansas State is still undefeated, but the Wildcats have Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M in the next three weeks.  If they win all three, then they deserve to move into the top two, but there’s a greater chance of a satellite fragment crashing at the 50-yard line at Snyder Family Stadium than the Wildcats completing that sweep.

 

Oklahoma State needs to win out, and they will play the Alabama-LSU winner for the national championship (assuming LSU does not beat Alabama and then lose to Arkansas).

After the Sooners, Cowboys, and Wildcats, Texas A&M is the best of the rest.  The Aggies could easily be undefeated, but they blew double digit leads in back-to-back weeks against Oklahoma State and Arkansas.

 

Baylor, Texas Tech, and Texas are sure to gain bowl eligibility, while Missouri has a good shot to get to 6-6.  If Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State and finishes 10-2, we believe they will still have a chance to garner a BCS At-large spot.  If the Sooners beat OSU and both finish 11-1, then it will be an almost certainty that the league will send two teams.

 

Pac-12

1. BCS Automatic Bid (Rose Bowl if not Championship Game)

2. Alamo

3. Holiday

4. Sun

5. MAACO

6. Kraft Fight Hunger

7. New Mexico

 

Stanford will deserve a spot in the National Championship Game if they go 13-0 with their schedule.  They face USC at the Coliseum this weekend, and must also defeat Oregon and Notre Dame in Palo Alto.  Then, they have to win the inaugural Pac-12 Championship Game, most likely against Arizona State.

 

Oregon is still a co-favorite to win the league title for the second consecutive year.  The Ducks lost to LSU to open the season, but they have gotten better and better each week.  Oregon has a tough three-game stretch at Washington, at Stanford, and versus USC.  If they win out and then take Arizona State in the conference title game, they might be the top one-loss team and the only one capable of leapfrogging over an undefeated Boise State team.

 

Since the Trojans are not eligible for bowl participation until next year, there is a very good possibility that this conference will not have seven bowl eligible teams this year.

 

Washington and Arizona State are the other sure things, while Cal will probably do it if they beat UCLA this week.  It is a high probability that no other team will win six games, so the Pac-12 will come up short by two teams, three if they send a second team to the BCS. 

 

S E C

1. BCS Automatic Bid (Sugar Bowl if not Championship Game)

2. Capital One

3-4-5. Outback or

3-4-5. Cotton or

3-4-5. Chick-fil-A

6. Gator

7. Music City

8-9. Liberty *

8-9 BVAA Compass *

 

* If the SEC cannot provide enough teams, the Liberty and Compass bowls alternate each year which bowl will find an at-large participant.  If the Liberty Bowl does not get an SEC team, they will take a Big East team that would have been the Compass Bowl’s selection.

 

It is very hard to believe the winner of the Alabama-LSU game would not be in the National Championship Game.  It isn’t impossible, but it’s hard to see any other SEC team beating the winner of this game.  It is also possible that if the winner of this epic matchup on November 5 wins by less than a field goal in one of those game for the ages, that the two teams could play again in New Orleans for all the marbles.

 

Arkansas is lurking in the bushes.  They have upset LSU before, including the Tigers’ national championship year of 2007.

 

Auburn, Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina will be bowl eligible, and all of them could have eight wins on their resume.

 

Mississippi State is having an off-year after winning nine games in 2010, but the Bulldogs should get to 6-6 with Kentucky, UT-Martin, and Ole Miss still on the schedule.

 

Tennessee and Vanderbilt both have a chance to get to six wins, and it is likely that the winner of their November 19 game will be 6-6, while the loser finishes 5-7.  Kentucky and Ole Miss will not become bowl eligible this year.  So, it looks like nine bowl eligible teams for a probable 10 slots.

 

Best of the Rest

Mountain West

1. MAACO

2. Poinsettia

3. Independence

4. Famous Idaho Potato

5. New Mexico

 

Boise State has road victories over Georgia and Toledo, two teams that will be in bowls.  They have home victories over Tulsa, Nevada, and Air Force, who should all be in bowls.  The Broncos still have games with TCU and San Diego State, who should both be in bowls.  That adds to seven bowl teams on their schedule, and if they go 12-0, they will definitely be deserving of a BCS at-large Bowl Bid, but not the National Championship Game.  The Broncos will only get to New Orleans if every other team loses at least one game (Houston not included).  In our opinion, the Broncos deserve a BCS Bowl game over any Big East or ACC team.

 

TCU and San Diego State are sure things to become bowl eligible, while Air Force has concluded the difficult part of their schedule and could win out.

 

This is where things get murky.  If BSU earns a BCS bowl bid, this league will be liable for six bowl teams.  They may only have four.  Wyoming is 4-2, but the Cowboys will be hard pressed to come up with two more wins with a schedule that includes San Diego State, Air Force, and Boise State on the road and TCU at home.  A win over New Mexico is almost a guarantee, so the Cowboys would have to win against rival Colorado State in Ft. Collins on December 3.

 

The Rest

 

Conference USA

1. Liberty *

2. Hawaii

3. Ticket City

4. Armed Forces

5. Beef O’Brady’s

6. New Orleans

* BVAA Compass

 

* The Liberty Bowl can select a Big East team in place of the CUSA champion and send the league champion to Birmingham to the Compass Bowl.

 

Houston could go 13-0 and still be forced to play in the Liberty Bowl, although the Cougars could be shipped to a better bowl, such as the Alamo Bowl, in a “back room deal.”

 

Southern Mississippi and Tulsa are the two best teams after Houston, and both still have to play the Cougars (that is if USM wins the East Division and Houston wins the West).

 

SMU and UTEP should both be bowl eligible.  Of the remaining East Division teams, East Carolina has the best chance of sneaking in with six wins, while Central Florida and Marshall are long shots.  There is a chance that this league will come up one team short.

 

Independents

1. Notre Dame: Irish get a BCS bid if they finish in the top 8 in the final BCS standings.  They can also qualify for any Non-BCS bowl with ties to the Big East, and they can fill the Big 12’s Pinstripe Bowl slot if it is not filled by a Big 12 team).

 

2. B Y U: Cougars will earn a bid to the Armed Forces Bowl if they win seven games.

 

3. Navy: Midshipmen qualify for the Military Bowl if they are bowl eligible.

 

4. Army: The Black Knights qualify for the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl if they are bowl eligible.  The ACC will replace a non-eligible Army team if they have a ninth bowl eligible team.

 

The only sure thing here is that BYU will earn their Armed Forces Bowl bid.  Notre Dame will go to one of the Big East bowls, while Army and Navy will be home for the holidays this year.

 

M A C

1. GoDaddy.com

2. Little Caesar’s

 

Toledo is the one sure thing this year.  The Rockets have been on a mission since the referees took away the Syracuse game from them with the blatantly terribly wrong PAT call.  They will earn one of the two guaranteed bowl bids.

 

Five teams will be competing for the other bowl spot.  In the East, where four teams have two conference losses, Temple, Ohio, and Bowling Green could all become bowl eligible.  In the West, besides Toledo, Northern Illinois can never be counted out of contention, as the Huskies have enough support to earn an at-large bid.  The two surprise teams here are Ball State and Eastern Michigan.  Both are 3-1/5-3, and both should win again to become bowl eligible.  While the Cardinals were in a bowl during Brady Hoke’s final season at BSU in 2008, it has been 24 years since EMU made its only bowl appearance.  The Eagles could win eight games, and Coach Ron English would have to merit some National Coach of the Year votes for taking a team that was #120 in the BCS two years ago.

 

Sunbelt

1. New Orleans

2. GoDaddy.com

* Beef O’Grady’s

* BVAA Compass

 

* The SBC is the principal backup choice of the Beef O’Grady’s Bowl if it cannot fill its spots with their regular tie-ins.  It is a secondary backup for the BVAA Compass Bowl.

 

Arkansas State is 3-0 in league play, while UL-Lafayette and Western Kentucky have one league loss apiece.  ASU beat WKU, and WKU beat ULL.  If ULL beats ASU, then the three could share the title, but we do not believe that will happen.  We’ll stick with ASU until somebody beats them in league play.

 

Florida International has a good chance of getting to seven wins and almost guaranteeing their receiving an at-large bowl bid.

 

The typical powers Troy and Middle Tennessee are out of the bowl picture for now.

 

W A C

Famous Idaho Potato

Poinsettia

Hawaii (Hawaii if they have seven or more wins)

New Mexico

 

Nevada will be the conference champion again, and Hawaii will win at least eight games.  After that, there is a question whether any other team will be bowl eligible.

 

San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State are 3-4, while Fresno State is 3-5.  FSU plays 13 games, and the Bulldogs are on pace to finish 6-7 and out of the bowl picture.

 

Of the 3-4 teams, Louisiana Tech still must face Fresno State, Ole Miss, and Nevada on the road, and that leads to seven losses.  New Mexico State still has games against Nevada, Georgia, and BYU, and that leads to at least seven losses.  San Jose State has the best chance to finish 3-2 and become bowl eligible.  The Spartans close with Louisiana Tech, Idaho, Utah State, Navy, and Fresno State.  2nd year coach Mike MacIntyre has done a great job in two years there, and with former Michigan starting quarterback Tate Forcier set to become eligible next year, the Spartans could be on the verge of returning to their former winning ways when they went to four bowls in a decade.

 

This Week’s Power Ratings 1-120

#

Team

PiRate

1

Alabama

138.1

2

Stanford

136.5

3

L S U

136.1

4

Oregon

131.6

5

Oklahoma St.

129.3

6

Oklahoma

129.3

7

Boise St.

126.9

8

Wisconsin

124.5

9

TexasA&M

123.3

10

Notre Dame

119.8

11

Florida St.

119.8

12

Clemson

119.5

13

Southern Cal

119.2

14

Arkansas

119.0

15

Michigan St.

118.8

16

Arizona St.

118.1

17

S. Carolina

116.7

18

Michigan

116.3

19

Missouri

115.6

20

Nebraska

114.9

21

Virginia Tech

114.3

22

Florida 

113.5

23

Georgia 

113.0

24

Miami(FL)

112.7

25

Washington

112.6

26

T C U

112.6

27

Kansas St.

112.3

28

Texas

111.3

29

TexasTech

111.1

30

Mississippi St.

111.0

31

Ohio St.

110.4

32

Cincinnati

109.5

33

W. Virginia

109.0

34

California

108.9

35

Arizona

108.5

36

Penn St.

107.7

37

Iowa

107.5

38

Southern Miss.

107.4

39

Tennessee

106.8

40

Utah

106.7

41

Auburn

106.7

42

Houston

106.6

43

Nevada

106.6

44

Baylor

106.5

45

Oregon St.

105.6

46

B Y U

105.0

47

Georgia Tech

104.1

48

Vanderbilt

103.9

49

WakeForest

103.0

50

San Diego St.

102.8

51

Pittsburgh

102.7

52

N. Carolina

102.4

53

Illinois

101.9

54

N. Carolina St.

101.7

55

Tulsa

101.4

56

S M U

101.3

57

S. Florida

101.3

58

Purdue

101.1

59

Toledo

100.6

60

U C L A

100.6

61

Maryland

100.4

62

Temple

100.3

63

Air Force

100.3

64

Washington St.

99.8

65

Hawaii

99.3

66

Northwestern

99.2

67

Rutgers

99.1

68

Utah St.

98.7

69

Ole Miss

97.7

70

Syracuse

97.1

71

Duke

96.7

72

BostonColl.

96.6

73

Iowa St.

95.9

74

Virginia

95.8

75

Connecticut

95.1

76

Navy

95.0

77

LouisianaTech

95.0

78

San Jose St.

94.8

79

Louisville

93.9

80

Central Florida

93.9

81

Fresno St.

93.7

82

Northern Illinois

93.4

83

Colorado

92.7

84

Western Michigan

92.6

85

East Carolina

92.5

86

Arkansas St.

91.9

87

Kentucky

89.1

88

Kansas

88.5

89

Wyoming

88.1

90

Bowling Green

87.7

91

U T E P

87.6

92

FloridaInt’l

87.1

93

Minnesota

86.8

94

Miami(O)

86.3

95

OhioU

85.9

96

U A B

85.8

97

Rice

85.5

98

Marshall

84.7

99

New Mexico St.

84.5

100

Colorado St.

84.5

101

Army

84.1

102

UL-Monroe

84.0

103

WesternKy.

83.1

104

Idaho

83.0

105

UL-Lafayette

82.1

106

Indiana

81.2

107

North Texas

81.0

108

Eastern Michigan

80.9

109

Ball St.

80.7

110

Central Michigan

80.0

111

MiddleTennessee

78.6

112

Buffalo

78.0

113

Troy

77.8

114

U N L V

77.8

115

Kent St.

74.5

116

New Mexico

70.1

117

Memphis

69.2

118

Tulane

68.7

119

Akron

67.5

120

FloridaAtlantic

64.8

 

By Conference

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaState

2-2

4-3

119.8

Clemson

5-0

8-0

119.5

WakeForest

4-1

5-2

103.0

North CarolinaState

1-2

4-3

101.7

Maryland

1-3

2-5

100.4

BostonCollege

0-4

1-6

96.6

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

3-1

7-1

114.3

Miami-FL

2-2

4-3

112.7

Georgia Tech

3-2

6-2

104.1

North Carolina

1-3

5-3

102.4

Duke

1-2

3-4

96.7

Virginia

1-2

4-3

95.8

 

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Cincinnati

2-0

6-1

109.5

West Virginia

1-1

5-2

109.0

Pittsburgh

1-1

3-4

102.7

South Florida

0-3

4-3

101.3

Rutgers

2-1

5-2

99.1

Syracuse

1-1

5-2

97.1

Connecticut

1-1

3-4

95.1

Louisville

1-1

3-4

93.9

 

 

Big Ten

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin

2-1

6-1

124.5

OhioState

1-2

4-3

110.4

PennState

4-0

7-1

107.7

Illinois

2-2

6-2

101.9

Purdue

2-1

4-3

101.1

Indiana

0-4

1-7

81.2

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

MichiganState

3-0

6-1

118.8

Michigan

2-1

6-1

116.3

Nebraska

2-1

6-1

114.9

Iowa

2-1

5-2

107.5

Northwestern

0-4

2-5

99.2

Minnesota

0-3

1-6

86.8

 

 

Big 12

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

OklahomaState

4-0

7-0

129.3

Oklahoma

3-1

6-1

127.5

TexasA&M

3-1

5-2

123.3

Missouri

1-3

3-4

115.6

KansasState

4-0

7-0

112.3

Texas

1-2

4-2

111.3

TexasTech

2-2

5-2

111.1

Baylor

1-2

4-2

106.5

IowaState

0-4

3-4

95.9

Kansas

0-4

2-5

88.5

 

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

2-1

6-1

107.4

Central Florida

1-2

3-4

93.9

East Carolina

2-1

3-4

92.5

U A B

1-3

1-6

85.8

Marshall

2-2

3-5

84.7

Memphis

1-2

2-6

69.2

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

3-0

7-0

106.6

Tulsa

3-0

4-3

101.4

S M U

3-1

5-2

101.3

U T E P

1-2

4-3

87.6

Rice

1-3

2-5

85.5

Tulane

1-3

2-6

68.7

 

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

4-3

119.8

B Y U  

6-2

105.0

Navy  

2-5

95.0

Army  

2-5

84.1

 

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

3-2

5-3

100.3

Bowling Green

2-2

4-4

87.7

Miami(O)

1-2

2-5

86.3

OhioU

2-2

5-3

85.9

Buffalo

1-3

2-6

78.0

Kent St.

0-3

1-6

74.5

Akron

0-3

1-6

67.5

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Toledo

4-0

5-3

100.6

Northern Illinois

3-1

5-3

93.4

Western Michigan

2-2

4-4

92.6

Eastern Michigan

3-1

5-3

80.9

BallState

3-1

5-3

80.7

Central Michigan

1-3

2-6

80.0

 

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

BoiseState

2-0

7-0

126.9

T C U

3-0

5-2

112.6

San DiegoState

1-1

4-2

102.8

Air Force

0-3

3-4

100.3

Wyoming

1-0

4-2

88.1

ColoradoState

1-1

3-4

84.5

UNLV

0-1

1-5

77.8

New Mexico

0-2

0-7

70.1

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Stanford

5-0

7-0

136.5

Oregon

4-0

6-1

131.6

Washington

3-1

5-2

112.6

California

1-3

4-3

108.9

OregonState

2-2

2-5

105.6

WashingtonState

1-3

3-4

99.8

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

U S C

3-1

6-1

119.2

ArizonaState

3-1

5-2

118.1

Arizona

1-3

2-5

108.5

Utah

0-4

3-4

106.7

U C L A

2-2

3-4

100.6

Colorado

0-4

1-7

92.7

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

South Carolina

4-1

6-1

116.7

Florida

2-3

4-3

113.5

Georgia

4-1

5-2

113.0

Tennessee

0-4

3-4

106.8

Vanderbilt

1-3

4-3

103.9

Kentucky

0-3

3-4

89.1

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

5-0

8-0

138.1

L S U

5-0

8-0

136.1

Arkansas

2-1

6-1

119.0

MississippiState

0-4

3-4

111.0

Auburn

3-2

5-3

106.7

Ole Miss

0-4

2-5

97.7

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

ArkansasState

3-0

5-2

91.9

FloridaInternational

1-2

4-3

87.1

Louisiana-Monroe

1-2

2-5

84.0

Western Kentucky

3-1

3-4

83.1

U.ofLouisiana

4-1

6-2

82.1

North Texas

2-2

3-5

81.0

MiddleTennessee

1-2

2-4

78.6

Troy

1-2

2-4

77.8

FloridaAtlantic

0-4

0-7

64.8

 

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nevada

2-0

4-3

106.6

Hawaii

2-1

4-3

99.3

UtahState

0-2

2-5

98.7

LouisianaTech

2-1

3-4

95.0

San JoseState

2-1

3-4

94.8

FresnoState

2-1

3-5

93.7

New MexicoState

1-2

3-4

84.5

Idaho

0-3

1-6

83.0

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

Tuesday, October 25  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

FLORIDAINT’L Troy

11.8

33-21

5   

   

 

 

 

Wednesday, October 26  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

PITTSBURGH Connecticut

10.6

28-17

10 1/2

   

 

 

 

Thursday, October 27  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

MIAMI(FL) Virginia

19.9

34-14

14 1/2

HOUSTON Rice

23.1

51-28

26 1/2

   

 

 

 

Friday, October 28  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

T C U B y u

11.1

35-24

11 1/2

   

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Saturday, October 29  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Mississippi St. KENTUCKY

18.9

31-12

10 1/2

MARSHALL U a b

1.9

26-24

6   

Central Mich. AKRON

10.0

31-21

8 1/2

WESTERNMICH. Ball St.

14.4

31-17

13 1/2

NORTH CAROLINA WakeForest

2.4

28-26

7   

FLORIDA ST. North Carolina St.

21.6

38-16

19 1/2

Clemson GEORGIATECH

12.4

42-30

NL

Iowa MINNESOTA

17.7

28-10

17 1/2

Michigan St. NEBRASKA

0.4

24-24 to ot

-5 1/2

Northwestern INDIANA

15.5

37-21

9 1/2

MICHIGAN Purdue

18.2

38-20

15   

PENN ST. Illinois

9.3

23-14

6   

Virginia Tech DUKE

15.1

27-12

14   

West Virginia RUTGERS

6.9

31-24

7   

Syracuse LOUISVILLE

0.2

26-26 to ot

-4   

MARYLAND BostonCollege

6.8

27-20

7 1/2

AUBURN Ole Miss

12.0

35-23

10 1/2

Arkansas VANDERBILT

12.6

34-21

12 1/2

TEXAS Kansas

26.3

38-12

24   

Bowling Green KENT ST.

10.7

31-20

5   

Air Force NEW MEXICO

27.7

42-14

28 1/2

TULSA S m u

3.1

37-34

3   

ARIZONA ST. Colorado

28.4

38-10

30 1/2

EAST CAROLINA Tulane

26.8

40-13

18   

TEXASA&M Missouri

11.2

38-27

11   

TEXASTECH Iowa St.

18.2

38-20

17 1/2

MIAMI(O) Buffalo

5.8

28-22

8   

NOTRE DAME Navy

27.8

45-17

17 1/2

Florida  (N) Georgia

0.5

24-23

NL

LOUISIANATECH San Jose St.

3.7

31-27

9 1/2

CENTRAL FLORIDA Memphis

27.7

41-13

29   

Hawaii IDAHO

12.8

38-25

11   

Colorado St. U N L V

3.7

28-24

3 1/2

UTAH Oregon St.

4.1

27-23

7   

California U C L A

5.3

31-26

5 1/2

WASHINGTON Arizona

7.1

30-23

8   

OREGON Washington St.

35.3

56-21

32 1/2

South Carolina TENNESSEE

6.9

20-10

6 1/2

Oklahoma KANSAS ST.

12.2

42-30

13 1/2

OKLAHOMA ST. Baylor

25.8

50-24

18   

Wisconsin OHIO ST.

11.1

25-14

8 1/2

Southern Miss. U T E P

16.8

38-21

11   

Stanford SOUTHERN CAL

13.8

35-21

8 1/2

Nevada NEW MEXICO ST.

19.1

40-21

15   

SAN DIEGO ST. Wyoming

17.7

35-17

17   

UL-MONROE Western Kentucky

3.4

31-28

6 1/2

ARKANSAS ST. North Texas

13.4

34-21

14 1/2

UL-Lafayette MIDDLETENNESSEE

1.0

26-25

-3   

 

 

October 16, 2011

PiRate Ratings: College Football for October 18-22, 2011

The Surprises and The Disappointments

As we pass the halfway point in the season, let’s take a look at each conference and review which teams have outperformed their expectations, underperformed their expectations.

 

A C C

Surprises: Clemson suffered through a 6-7 season last year, but the Tigers are 7-0 with wins over Auburn, Florida State, and Virginia Tech.  They play at Georgia Tech in two weeks and close the regular season at South Carolina.  CU has the horses to run the table and win the ACC Championship Game, but they will not be a contender for the National Championship Game unless they are the lone undefeated team remaining on December 4.

 

Georgia Tech figured to struggle to reach .500 this year with a young defense, but the Yellow Jackets’ offense has been outscoring opponents, until Saturday when they lost to Virginia.

 

Disappointments: Florida State was supposed to contend for national honors this year, but the Seminoles are a mediocre 3-3 halfway through the schedule.  FSU could run the table in the second half, but there is little to no chance they will claim the Atlantic Division crown.

 

Boston College is 1-5, and the Eagles close with their toughest games.  BC could lose 10 games for the first time since 1978.  Firing Jeff Jagodzinski for interviewing for an NFL job may have come back to bite the Eagles.  Frank Spaziani’s career record in Chestnut Hill is now 17-16 (Jago was 20-8 in his two years).

 

Big East

Surprises: That the league is still alive and may even keep their automatic BCS bid is the biggest surprise.  If Boise State and Air Force actually become members, it will be an even bigger surprise.

 

West Virginia and Cincinnati were expected to be as good as they are, but Rutgers was not supposed to be 5-1 and almost 6-0.  The Scarlet Knights had been going downhill since they went 11-2 in 2006.  Coach Greg Schiano’s team gets both WVU and Cinti at home, so don’t count out RU.

 

Disappointments: Pittsburgh is the one real disappointment in this league.  The Panthers are 3-4 under first year coach Todd Graham.  Many prognosticators pegged Pitt to contend with West Virginia.

 

Big Ten

Surprises: Until Saturday, Illinois and Michigan were the two big surprises.  Both teams lost to fall to 6-1.

 

Penn State, Michigan State, and Nebraska were expected to contend for division titles, while Wisconsin is no surprise. 

 

Disappointments: There are really no surprises here.  Ohio State is 4-3, but after all their bad news, the Buckeyes are about where everybody thinks they would be.  Northwestern is 2-4 and a mild disappointment, but then again, we’re talking about a team that can never take a win for granted.

 

Big 12

Surprises: Kansas State is one of the top surprises in the nation.  Hurray for the Septuagenarian set, as Coach Bill Snyder has his Wildcats at 6-0.  KSU should be 7-0 when they host Oklahoma in two weeks.  It isn’t possible, is it?

 

Disappointments: It’s hard to call it a disappointment, but 4-2 Texas A&M has blown large leads in their two losses.  The Aggies could easily be 6-0, and their two losses came to Oklahoma State and Arkansas, two teams that will probably play in January.

 

Conference USA

Surprises: Obviously, the biggest surprise is this league’s proposed merger with the Mountain West Conference to form the biggest league since the old Southern Conference had 22 members in the late 1920’s and early 1930’s.

 

They are not a major surprise, but UTEP is 3-3 with a chance to get to 6-6 and a bowl for the second consecutive season.  The Miners had to start from scratch on offense, but Coach Mike Price knows how to develop an attack unit.

 

Disappointments: Central Florida is 3-3 but could still finish 8-4.  The Knights should be 5-3 when they host Tulsa on Thursday, November 3.  If UCF wins that game, the following game at Southern Miss could decide the East Division title.

 

Independents

Surprises: There are no surprises among the independents.  BYU is the closest thing to a surprise at 5-2.  The Cougars will finish 8-4 or 9-3, which is about where most experts predicted.

 

Disappointments: The other three independent teams are disappointments thus far.  Notre Dame kicked off the season with a home loss to South Florida and followed it up with a loss to Michigan.  They have since reeled off four wins in a row and could travel to Stanford on November 26 with a 9-2 record.

 

Navy has not been able to generate enough passing to keep defenses honest, and the Midshipmen are 2-4 halfway through the season.  The back half of the schedule is tougher than what was expected, and the Middies could be out of the bowl picture this season.

You can say the same thing about Army.  The Black Knights are also 2-4, but they are 2-4 for a different reason.  Their desert swarm defense has stayed camouflaged after the opponent snaps the ball.  Like Navy, it looks like there will be no bowling for Army this year.

 

M A C

Surprises: Little surprises us when it comes to the MAC.  From week to week, you never know what you are going to get.  One week Temple looks unbeatable, then they lose big to Toledo.  Of course, since then, they have merely shut out back-to-back opponents.

 

Eastern Michigan is 4-3, but two of those wins were against FCS teams.  However, the Eagles have not been above .500 in the second half of a season since 1995, when they last finished above .500.

 

Disappointments: Ohio U was supposed to contend with Temple for the East Division title, but the Bobcats are sinking fast.  At 1-2/4-3, it appears as though they are out of the division race.

 

Mountain West

Surprises: (See Conference USA for the big surprise).  It is certainly no surprise that Boise State is undefeated and headed to a possible third 12-0 regular season in the last six years.  The Broncos will need Oklahoma or both Alabama and LSU to lose to have a shot at the National Championship Game.  If Oklahoma State runs the table, they could top BSU as well.

 

San Diego State and Wyoming are 4-2, but neither team is a surprise at this point.  The Aztecs were expected to contend for another bowl game, while Wyoming is almost a disappointment halfway through their schedule.  The Cowboys could have won an extra game in the first half of the season, and they could easily go 1-5 in the second half to miss out on a bowl.

 

Disappointments: Air Force is 3-3 after being expected to contend for 2nd place in the league.  The Falcons should rebound to win at least four of their final six if not five.

 

Pac-12

Surprises: If there are surprises here, then you have to look at the Evergreen State.  Washington is 5-1.  They face Stanford in Palo Alto this weekend, and the Huskies could make it an interesting game.

 

Washington State is 3-3, and the Cougars have an outside shot of going 3-3 in the second half of the season.  It has been eight years since WSU has been to a bowl.

 

Disappointments: California was supposed to rebound from a subpar 2010 season, but the Bears are 3-3 after losing three games in a row.  Coach Jeff Tedford’s offense is not churning out the yards and points like it did in earlier in the decade.  Another 5-7 season is possible.

 

Oregon State could be headed back to a place they were familiar with for almost three decades.  The Beavers never approached a winning season from the early 1970’s until the late 1990’s.  After losing to Sacramento State to begin the season, OSU has reached the halfway point at 1-5.  1-11 is a possibility.

 

S E C

Surprises: There are no real surprises in the top conference in the nation.  Alabama and LSU are headed to a possible epic game in November, while Arkansas is not to be counted out yet.  If LSU beats Alabama, and Arkansas beats LSU, the West Division could end up with three 7-1/11-1 teams.

 

Could the defending national champions be a surprise at 5-2?  Yes!  Auburn was expected to struggle to reach six wins this year, but the Tigers are headed to at least a 7-5 season if not better.

 

In the East, Georgia has rebounded with five consecutive wins after starting 0-2.  The Bulldogs could make it 10 in a row before having to face Alabama, LSU, or Arkansas in the SEC Championship Game.

 

Disappointments: In the East, Florida is a huge disappointment.  Losing John Brantley has been as devastating at the Colts losing Peyton Manning.  The Gators are 4-3 and could drop to 6-6 before bowl season.

 

In the West, Ole Miss is 2-4 and headed to a second consecutive 4-8 season.  Coach Houston Nutt could be on the hot seat.  Ole Miss letting David Cutcliffe go after the 2004 was as big a mistake as New Mexico forcing Rocky Long out.

 

Mississippi State is 3-4 and will most likely be 5-6 prior to the Egg Bowl on November 26.  It will take a win over Ole Miss to become bowl eligible.

 

Sunbelt

Surprises: The SBC may be the weakest FBS conference overall, but the biggest surprise of all comes from this league.  Louisiana was expected to struggle to beat out Western Kentucky and Florida Atlantic to avoid the cellar.  Instead, the Ragin’ Cajuns are 4-0/6-1.  UL-Lafayette has never been to a bowl game, but that is going to change.  If they should happen to win out and finish 11-1, they could even garner some top 25 votes.  Their one loss came at Oklahoma State in the opener.

 

Disappointments: The two teams that have been the top contenders in recent years have fallen this year.  Troy has won or shared the league title for five consecutive years, but the 2-4 Trojans will have a tough time getting to 6-6 let alone finish with a piece of the title.

 

Middle Tennessee was expected to contend for the league title after going two bowls the last two seasons.  The 1-4 Blue Raiders own only one win, and that came against the hapless Memphis Tigers.

 

W A C

Surprises: The biggest surprise is that not a single team has a winning record halfway through the season.  New Mexico State has to be considered the only positive surprise, as the Aggies are 3-3.  It has been nine seasons since NMSU last finished with a winning record, and we do not believe they will make it this year due to a really tough closing schedule.  They play 13 regular season games, and we cannot see four more wins.

 

San Jose State is 3-4, but that equals the total number of games they won in 2009 and 2010 combined.  The Spartans have a shot at getting to 6-6.

 

Disappointments: Except for New Mexico State and San Jose State, the rest of the league is a disappointment.  Nevada and Hawaii are not going to make waves this year.  For years, Fresno State has been pulling off major upsets and going to bowls, but the Bulldogs have never won the WAC.  In what could be Coach Pat Hill’s weakest team in five years, it would be quite ironic if FSU finally won the title in this major down year for the league.

 

The Cream Rises Farther From The Skim Milk

In PiRate Ratings’ history, only one time did five teams finish with what today would equal 130.0 or above PiRate Ratings; Back then, our founder rated teams with 0 as the mid-point, whereas today 100 is the norm. 

 

That year was 1973.  That year, Ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame, Michigan, and Alabama all finished above 30, which is 130 today.

 

Halfway through 2011, four teams are currently above 130, while a fifth team is very close.  Take a look at this week’s ratings.

 

#

Team

PiRate

1

Alabama

138.6

2

Oklahoma

134.5

3

L S U

134.1

4

Stanford

132.5

5

Boise St.

129.7

6

Oregon

128.7

7

Oklahoma St.

127.3

8

Wisconsin

127.2

9

Notre Dame

126.0

10

TexasA&M

124.0

11

Arkansas

121.3

12

Clemson

119.1

13

Florida St.

118.3

14

Arizona St.

118.1

15

Missouri

117.4

16

S. Carolina

116.7

17

Michigan

116.3

18

Michigan St.

116.2

19

Washington

115.9

20

Southern Cal

114.8

21

Virginia Tech

114.0

22

Nebraska

113.7

23

Florida 

113.5

24

Georgia 

113.0

25

W. Virginia

112.5

26

Miami(FL)

111.5

27

Texas

111.3

28

Mississippi St.

111.0

29

Utah

110.7

30

Ohio St.

110.4

31

Cincinnati

109.8

32

Kansas St.

109.1

33

T C U

108.8

34

Auburn

108.5

35

Nevada

107.1

36

Penn St.

107.0

37

Iowa

106.8

38

Baylor

106.5

39

Tennessee

106.3

40

California

106.0

41

Georgia Tech

105.6

42

U C L A

105.6

43

TexasTech

104.9

44

Arizona

104.8

45

S M U

104.6

46

B Y U

104.5

47

Illinois

104.1

48

Houston

103.9

49

Southern Miss.

103.9

50

Washington St.

103.8

51

Vanderbilt

103.5

52

WakeForest

102.9

53

San Diego St.

102.8

54

Pittsburgh

102.7

55

N. Carolina

102.6

56

Temple

102.5

57

Oregon St.

102.2

58

Maryland

102.0

59

S. Florida

101.0

60

Rutgers

100.7

61

Hawaii

100.6

62

N. Carolina St.

100.2

63

Tulsa

100.0

64

Northwestern

99.8

65

Toledo

99.7

66

Utah St.

98.7

67

Purdue

98.7

68

Navy

98.2

69

Air Force

98.0

70

Virginia

97.1

71

Duke

96.8

72

BostonColl.

96.7

73

Western Michigan

96.4

74

Colorado

96.4

75

Central Florida

96.2

76

Iowa St.

95.7

77

Ole Miss

95.7

78

Connecticut

95.1

79

LouisianaTech

95.0

80

Northern Illinois

95.0

81

San Jose St.

94.8

82

Fresno St.

92.7

83

Syracuse

92.1

84

Louisville

92.1

85

Kansas

91.5

86

Arkansas St.

89.6

87

East Carolina

89.4

88

FloridaInt’l

89.2

89

Kentucky

88.8

90

Wyoming

88.1

91

Colorado St.

88.0

92

UL-Monroe

88.0

93

Minnesota

87.8

94

Marshall

87.2

95

Miami(O)

87.0

96

Rice

86.7

97

OhioU

85.1

98

Bowling Green

85.0

99

UL-Lafayette

84.8

100

Army

84.4

101

U T E P

84.2

102

U A B

83.4

103

Idaho

83.0

104

New Mexico St.

82.7

105

Indiana

81.9

106

Central Michigan

80.3

107

Ball St.

80.2

108

WesternKy.

78.2

109

North Texas

77.9

110

Troy

77.8

111

U N L V

77.8

112

Buffalo

76.4

113

MiddleTennessee

75.5

114

Tulane

74.7

115

Kent St.

74.5

116

Eastern Michigan

74.5

117

New Mexico

73.8

118

FloridaAtlantic

70.4

119

Akron

68.2

120

Memphis

64.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Clemson

4-0

7-0

119.1

Florida State

1-2

3-3

118.3

Wake Forest

3-1

4-2

102.9

Maryland

1-2

2-4

102.0

North Carolina State

0-2

3-3

100.2

Boston College

0-3

1-5

96.7

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

2-1

6-1

114.0

Miami-FL

1-2

3-3

111.5

Georgia Tech

3-1

6-1

105.6

North Carolina

1-2

5-2

102.6

Virginia

1-1

4-2

97.1

Duke

1-1

3-3

96.8

 

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

West Virginia

1-0

5-1

112.5

Cincinnati

1-0

5-1

109.8

Pittsburgh

1-1

3-4

102.7

South Florida

0-2

4-2

101.0

Rutgers

2-0

5-1

100.7

Connecticut

1-1

3-4

95.1

Syracuse

0-1

4-2

92.1

Louisville

0-1

2-4

92.1

 

 

Big Ten

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin

2-0

6-0

127.2

Ohio State

1-2

4-3

110.4

Penn State

3-0

6-1

107.0

Illinois

2-1

6-1

104.1

Purdue

1-1

3-3

98.7

Indiana

0-3

1-6

81.9

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Michigan

2-1

6-1

116.3

Michigan State

2-0

5-1

116.2

Nebraska

1-1

5-1

113.7

Iowa

1-1

4-2

106.8

Northwestern

0-3

2-4

99.8

Minnesota

0-2

1-5

87.8

 

 

Big 12

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

3-0

6-0

134.5

Oklahoma State

3-0

6-0

127.3

Texas A&M

2-1

4-2

124.0

Missouri

1-2

3-3

117.4

Texas

1-2

4-2

111.3

Kansas State

3-0

6-0

109.1

Baylor

1-2

4-2

106.5

Texas Tech

1-2

4-2

104.9

Iowa State

0-3

3-3

95.7

Kansas

0-3

2-4

91.5

 

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

1-1

5-1

103.9

Central Florida

1-1

3-3

96.2

East Carolina

2-1

2-4

89.4

Marshall

2-1

3-4

87.2

U A B

0-3

0-6

83.4

Memphis

0-2

1-6

64.5

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

S M U

3-0

5-1

104.6

Houston

2-0

6-0

103.9

Tulsa

2-0

3-3

100.0

Rice

1-2

2-4

86.7

U T E P

1-2

3-3

84.2

Tulane

1-2

2-5

74.7

 

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

4-2

126.0

B Y U  

5-2

104.5

Navy  

2-4

98.2

Army  

2-4

84.4

 

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

3-1

5-2

102.5

Miami (O)

1-1

2-4

87.0

Ohio U

1-2

4-3

85.1

Bowling Green

1-2

3-4

85.0

Buffalo

1-2

2-5

76.4

Kent St.

0-3

1-6

74.5

Akron

0-2

1-5

68.2

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Toledo

3-0

4-3

99.7

Western Michigan

2-1

4-3

96.4

Northern Illinois

2-1

4-3

95.0

Central Michigan

1-2

2-5

80.3

Ball State

2-1

4-3

80.2

Eastern Michigan

2-1

4-3

74.5

 

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

1-0

6-0

129.7

T C U

2-0

4-2

108.8

San Diego State

1-1

4-2

102.8

Air Force

0-2

3-3

98.0

Wyoming

1-0

4-2

88.1

Colorado State

1-1

3-3

88.0

UNLV

0-1

1-5

77.8

New Mexico

0-1

0-6

73.8

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Stanford

4-0

6-0

132.5

Oregon

3-0

5-1

128.7

Washington

3-0

5-1

115.9

California

0-3

3-3

106.0

Washington State

1-2

3-3

103.8

Oregon State

1-2

1-5

102.2

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Arizona State

3-1

5-2

118.1

U S C

3-1

5-1

114.8

Utah

0-3

3-3

110.7

U C L A

2-1

3-3

105.6

Arizona

0-3

1-5

104.8

Colorado

0-3

1-6

96.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

South Carolina

4-1

6-1

116.7

Florida

2-3

4-3

113.5

Georgia

4-1

5-2

113.0

Tennessee

0-3

3-3

106.3

Vanderbilt

1-3

3-3

103.5

Kentucky

0-3

2-4

88.8

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

4-0

7-0

138.6

L S U

4-0

7-0

134.1

Arkansas

1-1

5-1

121.3

Mississippi State

0-4

3-4

111.0

Auburn

3-1

5-2

108.5

Ole Miss

0-3

2-4

95.7

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Arkansas State

2-0

4-2

89.6

Florida International

1-1

4-2

89.2

Louisiana-Monroe

1-1

2-4

88.0

U. of Louisiana

4-0

6-1

84.8

Western Kentucky

2-1

2-4

78.2

North Texas

1-2

2-5

77.9

Troy

1-2

2-4

77.8

Middle Tennessee

0-2

1-4

75.5

Florida Atlantic

0-3

0-6

70.4

 

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nevada

1-0

3-3

107.1

Hawaii

1-1

3-3

100.6

Utah State

0-1

2-4

98.7

LouisianaTech

1-1

2-4

95.0

San Jose State

2-1

3-4

94.8

Fresno State

2-0

3-4

92.7

Idaho

0-3

1-6

83.0

New Mexico State

1-1

3-3

82.7

 

 

Here are the PiRate Ratings for this week’s games.

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

Tuesday, October 18  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

ARKANSAS ST. Florida International

3.4

34-31

2 1/2

   

 

 

 

Thursday, October 20  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Central Florida U A B

10.3

30-20

15   

ARIZONA U c l a

2.2

26-24

4   

   

 

 

 

Friday, October 21  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Rutgers LOUISVILLE

5.6

23-17

2 1/2

West Virginia SYRACUSE

17.4

38-21

13 1/2

   

 

 

 

Saturday, October 22  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

IOWA Indiana

28.4

38-10

21 1/2

North Carolina St. VIRGINIA

0.1

23-23 to ot

-4   

Illinois PURDUE

2.4

21-19

6   

FLORIDA ST. Maryland

19.3

35-16

16   

MIAMI (FL) Georgia Tech

8.9

33-24

3   

Wake Forest DUKE

3.6

27-23

3   

Arkansas OLE MISS

22.6

35-12

14 1/2

Cincinnati SOUTH FLORIDA

5.3

35-30

-1   

CLEMSON North Carolina

19.5

41-21

11   

Northern Illinois BUFFALO

16.1

34-18

12   

VIRGINIA TECH Boston College

20.3

33-13

21 1/2

Texas A&M IOWA ST.

25.3

45-20

17 1/2

Western Mich. EASTERN MICH.

19.4

36-17

16 1/2

T C U New Mexico

38.0

45-7

39   

BALL ST. Central Mich.

2.4

26-24

1   

Tulsa RICE

10.8

38-27

NL

VANDERBILT Army

22.1

31-9

8 1/2

UTAH ST. LouisianaTech

7.2

34-27

5 1/2

Temple BOWLING GREEN

15.0

31-16

12 1/2

Ohio U AKRON

14.4

31-17

15   

TULANE Memphis

12.7

33-20

NL

Oklahoma St. MISSOURI

6.9

45-38

7 1/2

Oregon COLORADO

28.8

42-13

NL

Nebraska MINNESOTA

22.9

33-10

26 1/2

Utah CALIFORNIA

1.7

25-23

-1   

BOISE ST. Air Force

35.2

49-14

29 1/2

Kansas St. KANSAS

15.6

30-14

15   

OKLAHOMA Texas Tech

32.6

50-17

25 1/2

WASHINGTON ST. Oregon St.

4.6

31-26

2 1/2

NAVY East Carolina

11.8

38-26

10   

NEVADA Fresno St.

17.4

38-21

10   

HOUSTON Marshall

19.7

40-20

16   

Penn St. NORTHWESTERN

4.2

21-17

3   

TOLEDO Miami (O)

15.2

36-21

14 1/2

ALABAMA Tennessee

35.8

45-9

27 1/2

NOTRE DAME Southern Cal

14.7

27-12

8 1/2

SOUTHERN MISS. S m u

2.3

30-28

3 1/2

STANFORD Washington

19.6

44-24

20   

L S U Auburn

28.6

42-13

21   

Wisconsin MICHIGAN ST.

7.5

35-27

7   

Colorado St. U T E P

1.3

27-26

-6 1/2

UL-Lafayette WESTERN KENTUCKY

4.1

24-20

4   

MiddleTennessee FLORIDA ATLANTIC

2.6

24-21

6   

UL-Monroe NORTH TEXAS

7.6

34-26

3   

 

October 10, 2011

PiRate Ratings: College Football for October 13-15, 2011

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , — piratings @ 10:42 am

Great Saturday To Have Multiple TVs

If you have picture within a picture, you will want to use that option this week as there are so many fantastic matchups available.  Of course, if you are like Couch Potato Pete, you will have two TVs, a computer, and a radio blasting away at the same time at these dozen games:

 

All Times Eastern Daylight

 

12 Noon

Baylor at Texas A&M on FX

Michigan at Michigan State on ESPN & ESPN3

 

3 PM

Florida State at Duke on Fox Sports Affiliates & Gameplan & ESPN3

 

3:30 PM

L S U at Tennessee on CBS

Ohio State at Illinois on ABC or ESPN & ESPN3

Oklahoma State at Texas on ABC or ESPN & ESPN3

Georgia Tech at Virginia on ESPNU

 

6 PM

Alabama at Ole Miss on ESPN2 & ESPN3

 

7 PM

Clemson at Maryland on ESPNU

Kansas State at Texas Tech on Fox Sports Affiliate Stations

 

7:30 PM

Stanford at Washington State on Versus

 

10:15 PM

Arizona State at Oregon on ESPN & ESPN3

 

Another Possible “Game of the Century” Approaching

It started at Yankee Stadium in November of 1946.  Army and Notre Dame, two teams considered to be at least three touchdowns better than any other college team faced if at the House That Ruth Built and battled to a scoreless tie.

 

Since then, there have been a handful of games that deserved being mentioned in the same breath as the first “Game of the Century.”

 

The 1966 Michigan State and Notre Dame game comes to mind.  It too ended in a tie at 10-10.  The 1969 season-ending game between Texas and Arkansas might have ended in a third big tie, but the Longhorns went for two on a touchdown to win 15-14.

 

In what was probably the best “Game of the Century” of all time, Nebraska and Oklahoma met on Thanksgiving Day 1971.  Beano Cook called this one the perfect game.  The score see-sawed all day, with Nebraska twice taking double digit leads only to see Oklahoma come from behind and take the lead.  A late long drive by the Cornhuskers ended in joy with tailback Jeff Kinney powered inside tackle for the game-winning touchdown, as Nebraska won 35-31.  That Cornhusker team defeated the numbers two, three, and four teams in the nation (by an average of 35-15), which is the only time that has ever been done.

 

There have been a handful of other games that merited this special status, including the Michigan-Ohio State season-ender at Columbus in 2006.

 

There is a good chance that we will be blessed with yet another fierce rivalry game that qualifies for “Game of the Century” status.  LSU faces Alabama in Tuscaloosa on November 5.  As of this writing, LSU is number one in the AP Poll, and Alabama is number two.

 

This would not be the first time the two teams have squared off in November when both were still sporting perfect records.  Alabama was 8-0 and ranked number two, while LSU was 7-0 and ranked number six.  Like this year, both teams had fabulous defenses, with LSU giving up 9.4 points per game and Alabama yielding 10.3 points per game entering that November contest.

 

Alabama’s wishbone offense proved to be too much for LSU that day, while Tiger quarterback Bert Jones did not have much time to pass.  The Tide rolled to a 35-21 win that day in Birmingham.

 

Entering this week’s games, Alabama leads the nation, giving up 7.0 points per game, while LSU is eighth, allowing 12.5 points per game.  Both are in the top five in total defense and rushing defense.  Both are in the top six in pass efficiency defense.

 

This Week’s Team Rankings

 

#

Team

PiRate

1

Alabama

136.8

2

Oklahoma

135.8

3

L S U

132.1

4

Stanford

131.2

5

Oregon

128.5

6

Boise St.

127.3

7

Oklahoma St.

126.7

8

Wisconsin

126.3

9

Notre Dame

126.0

10

TexasA&M

122.0

11

Arkansas

121.3

12

Clemson

118.7

13

Michigan

118.7

14

Arizona St.

118.2

15

Florida St.

116.7

16

S. Carolina

116.5

17

Florida 

115.9

18

Missouri

114.6

19

Washington

114.3

20

Nebraska

113.7

21

Georgia 

113.7

22

Michigan St.

113.3

23

W. Virginia

112.5

24

Southern Cal

112.1

25

Texas

111.8

26

Virginia Tech

111.4

27

Cincinnati

111.4

28

Miami(FL)

111.2

29

Mississippi St.

111.0

30

T C U

108.8

31

California

108.8

32

Baylor

108.6

33

Ohio St.

108.6

34

Tennessee

108.1

35

Utah

108.1

36

Georgia Tech

107.9

37

Penn St.

107.8

38

Kansas St.

107.5

39

Auburn

107.0

40

TexasTech

106.8

41

Iowa

106.6

42

Illinois

105.8

43

WakeForest

105.7

44

U C L A

105.6

45

Pittsburgh

105.4

46

Nevada

105.0

47

Washington St.

105.0

48

Oregon St.

105.0

49

Arizona

104.8

50

Houston

103.9

51

Southern Miss.

103.9

52

Vanderbilt

103.1

53

S M U

103.0

54

N. Carolina

102.9

55

S. Florida

102.9

56

Maryland

101.9

57

B Y U

101.9

58

Hawaii

101.7

59

Rutgers

100.9

60

Air Force

100.7

61

Utah St.

100.7

62

Tulsa

100.3

63

N. Carolina St.

100.2

64

Toledo

100.1

65

Western Michigan

100.0

66

Northwestern

99.9

67

Temple

99.9

68

San Diego St.

99.8

69

Iowa St.

98.6

70

Duke

98.3

71

Navy

98.0

72

Colorado

97.8

73

Central Florida

97.6

74

Purdue

97.6

75

Ole Miss

97.3

76

BostonColl.

96.7

77

LouisianaTech

95.0

78

Virginia

94.3

79

Connecticut

94.1

80

San Jose St.

93.4

81

Syracuse

92.1

82

Northern Illinois

90.9

83

Louisville

90.8

84

Fresno St.

90.6

85

Kansas

90.2

86

Colorado St.

89.9

87

Arkansas St.

89.6

88

FloridaInt’l

89.2

89

East Carolina

89.2

90

Kentucky

88.8

91

Minnesota

87.8

92

Miami(O)

87.8

93

Rice

87.1

94

OhioU

86.7

95

Marshall

86.7

96

Wyoming

85.5

97

UL-Monroe

85.3

98

Bowling Green

84.6

99

Army

84.4

100

Idaho

83.8

101

Central Michigan

83.2

102

U A B

83.1

103

Indiana

82.8

104

UL-Lafayette

82.3

105

New Mexico St.

81.8

106

Troy

81.4

107

U T E P

80.9

108

U N L V

80.0

109

North Texas

79.9

110

Buffalo

79.1

111

Tulane

78.9

112

Ball St.

78.8

113

New Mexico

75.8

114

MiddleTennessee

75.5

115

WesternKy.

75.4

116

Kent St.

74.2

117

FloridaAtlantic

73.4

118

Eastern Michigan

71.7

119

Akron

68.2

120

Memphis

64.6

 

Teams Ranked By Conference

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Clemson

3-0

6-0

118.7

FloridaState

0-2

2-3

116.7

WakeForest

3-0

4-1

105.7

Maryland

1-1

2-3

101.9

North CarolinaState

0-2

3-3

100.2

BostonCollege

0-3

1-5

96.7

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

1-1

5-1

111.4

Miami-FL

0-2

2-3

111.2

Georgia Tech

3-0

6-0

107.9

North Carolina

1-1

5-1

102.9

Duke

1-0

3-2

98.3

Virginia

0-1

3-2

94.3

 

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

West Virginia

1-0

5-1

112.5

Cincinnati

0-0

4-1

111.4

Pittsburgh

1-1

3-3

105.4

South Florida

0-1

4-1

102.9

Rutgers

2-0

4-1

100.9

Connecticut

0-1

2-4

94.1

Syracuse

0-1

4-2

92.1

Louisville

0-0

2-3

90.8

 

 

Big Ten

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin

1-0

5-0

126.3

OhioState

0-2

3-3

108.6

PennState

2-0

5-1

107.8

Illinois

2-0

6-0

105.8

Purdue

1-0

3-2

97.6

Indiana

0-2

1-5

82.8

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Michigan

2-0

6-0

118.7

Nebraska

1-1

5-1

113.7

MichiganState

1-0

4-1

113.3

Iowa

0-1

3-2

106.6

Northwestern

0-2

2-3

99.9

Minnesota

0-2

1-5

87.8

 

 

Big 12

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

2-0

5-0

135.8

OklahomaState

2-0

5-0

126.7

TexasA&M

1-1

3-2

122.0

Missouri

0-2

2-3

114.6

Texas

1-1

4-1

111.8

Baylor

1-1

4-1

108.6

KansasState

2-0

5-0

107.5

TexasTech

1-1

4-1

106.8

IowaState

0-2

3-2

98.6

Kansas

0-2

2-3

90.2

 

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

1-1

5-1

103.9

Central Florida

1-0

3-2

97.6

East Carolina

1-1

1-4

89.2

Marshall

1-1

2-4

86.7

U A B

0-2

0-5

83.1

Memphis

0-1

1-5

64.6

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

2-0

6-0

103.9

S M U

2-0

4-1

103.0

Tulsa

1-0

2-3

100.3

Rice

1-1

2-3

87.1

U T E P

0-2

2-3

80.9

Tulane

1-1

2-4

78.9

 

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

4-2

126.0

B Y U  

4-2

101.9

Navy  

2-3

98.0

Army  

2-4

84.4

 

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

2-1

4-2

99.9

Miami(O)

0-1

1-4

87.8

OhioU

1-1

4-2

86.7

Bowling Green

1-1

3-3

84.6

Buffalo

1-1

2-4

79.1

Kent St.

0-2

1-5

74.2

Akron

0-2

1-5

68.2

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Toledo

2-0

3-3

100.1

Western Michigan

2-0

4-2

100.0

Northern Illinois

1-1

3-3

90.9

Central Michigan

1-1

2-4

83.2

BallState

1-1

3-3

78.8

Eastern Michigan

1-1

3-3

71.7

 

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

BoiseState

0-0

5-0

127.3

T C U

2-0

4-2

108.8

Air Force

0-1

3-2

100.7

San DiegoState

0-1

3-2

99.8

ColoradoState

1-0

3-2

89.9

Wyoming

0-0

3-2

85.5

UNLV

0-0

1-4

80.0

New Mexico

0-1

0-5

75.8

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Stanford

3-0

5-0

131.2

Oregon

2-0

4-1

128.5

Washington

2-0

4-1

114.3

California

0-2

3-2

108.8

WashingtonState

1-1

3-2

105.0

OregonState

1-2

1-4

105.0

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

ArizonaState

3-0

5-1

118.2

U S C

2-1

4-1

112.1

Utah

0-3

2-3

108.1

U C L A

2-1

3-3

105.6

Arizona

0-3

1-5

104.8

Colorado

0-2

1-5

97.8

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

South Carolina

3-1

5-1

116.5

Florida

2-2

4-2

115.9

Georgia

3-1

4-2

113.7

Tennessee

0-2

3-2

108.1

Vanderbilt

1-2

3-2

103.1

Kentucky

0-3

2-4

88.8

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

3-0

6-0

136.8

L S U

3-0

6-0

132.1

Arkansas

1-1

5-1

121.3

MississippiState

0-3

3-3

111.0

Auburn

2-1

4-2

107.0

Ole Miss

0-2

2-3

97.3

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

ArkansasState

2-0

4-2

89.6

FloridaInternational

1-1

4-2

89.2

Louisiana-Monroe

0-1

1-4

85.3

U.ofLouisiana

3-0

5-1

82.3

Troy

1-1

2-3

81.4

North Texas

1-1

2-4

79.9

MiddleTennessee

0-2

1-4

75.5

Western Kentucky

1-1

1-4

75.4

FloridaAtlantic

0-2

0-5

73.4

 

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nevada

1-0

2-3

105.0

Hawaii

1-0

3-2

101.7

UtahState

0-0

2-3

100.7

LouisianaTech

1-1

2-4

95.0

San JoseState

1-1

2-4

93.4

FresnoState

1-0

2-4

90.6

Idaho

0-2

1-5

83.8

New MexicoState

0-1

2-3

81.8

 

 

This Week’s Schedule

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

Thursday, October 13  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

AIR FORCE San Diego St.

3.9

35-31

6   

Southern Cal CALIFORNIA

0.3

24-24 to ot

3   

   

 

 

 

Friday, October 14  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Hawaii SAN JOSE ST.

5.3

35-30

6 1/2

   

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Saturday, October 15  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Miami(Fl) NORTH CAROLINA

5.3

31-26

-2   

PENN ST. Purdue

13.7

20-6

13   

WISCONSIN Indiana

47.5

58-10

38   

RUTGERS Navy

5.9

34-28

2   

Florida St. DUKE

15.9

41-25

10 1/2

Toledo BOWLING GREEN

13.0

37-24

7 1/2

Clemson MARYLAND

13.8

31-17

8   

Virginia Tech WAKEFOREST

2.7

23-20

7   

Georgia Tech VIRGINIA

10.6

35-24

8 1/2

South Carolina MISSISSIPPI ST.

2.5

24-21

5   

TEMPLE Buffalo

23.8

34-10

20   

WYOMING U n l v

8.5

31-22

13   

MISSOURI Iowa St.

19.0

33-14

16   

CENTRAL MICH. Eastern Mich.

14.0

28-14

13 1/2

Miami(O) KENT ST.

11.1

31-20

5 1/2

WesternMich. NORTHERN ILLINOIS

6.1

30-24

1   

PITTSBURGH Utah

1.3

28-27

6 1/2

OREGON ST. B y u

6.6

28-21

1   

OREGON Arizona St.

14.3

41-27

15   

TEXASA&M Baylor

16.9

48-31

9 1/2

L s u TENNESSEE

21.0

31-10

15   

WASHINGTON Colorado

20.0

37-17

16 1/2

Michigan MICHIGAN ST.

2.9

31-28

-3   

ILLINOIS Ohio St.

0.2

20-20 to ot

3 1/2

Florida AUBURN

5.9

30-24

NL

CINCINNATI Louisville

23.1

37-14

13   

OHIOU Ball St.

10.4

31-21

14   

TULANE U t e p

0.5

34-33

1   

Alabama OLE MISS

36.5

44-7

23   

Oklahoma KANSAS

42.6

52-9

31 1/2

NEVADA New Mexico

32.2

42-10

29   

S M U Central Florida

8.4

35-27

2 1/2

Boise St. COLORADO ST.

34.4

51-17

32   

Stanford WASHINGTON ST.

23.2

40-17

20   

Georgia VANDERBILT

7.6

17-9

13   

Oklahoma St. TEXAS

11.4

45-34

5 1/2

TEXASTECH Kansas St.

2.8

35-32

3 1/2

South Florida CONNECTICUT

5.8

23-17

7   

East Carolina MEMPHIS

22.1

42-20

16 1/2

MARSHALL Rice

2.6

31-28

5 1/2

IOWA Northwestern

9.7

27-17

7   

NEW MEXICO ST. Idaho

0.5

24-23

1   

TULSA U a b

20.2

34-14

21   

Utah St. FRESNO ST.

7.1

38-31

4   

UL-LAFAYETTE North Texas

4.9

34-29

8 1/2

UL-Monroe TROY

0.9

28-27

-10 1/2

FLORIDAATLANTIC Western Kentucky

0.5

24-23

3   

 

« Newer PostsOlder Posts »

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.