The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 15, 2014

PiRate Ratings College Football Playoffs and Bowls Coverage

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , — piratings @ 5:09 am

Note: You can find our award-winning ratings at http://www.piratings.webs.com

You can find numerous bowl projection sights on the Internet, so we see no reason to just put forth our projections like 100 others. The PiRate Ratings have always been a little different than other ratings. Our computer ratings use a system other than the actual scores of the games, using unique statistical data to come up with a truer score of every game before adjusting the ratings. Likewise, our bowl projections do not use the same criteria as other projectors.

We try to use our ratings to look forward and determine what the standings will look like on December 7. Then, we try to surmise the “political” nature of the bowls. For instance, you know that the ACC bowls would prefer to invite anybody other than Miami if they have a chance. When you cannot put 5,000 fans in your stadium for a home game against Cincinnati, another likely bowl team, it is not going to give a bowl like the Sun Bowl much faith that the Hurricanes will bring 20,000 fans to El Paso. Likewise, a 10-2 Auburn team is going to garner one of the big Bowl games not in the playoffs (Fiesta, Orange, Peach, or Cotton this year) before a 10-2 Washington team.

What we will do here is cover the bowls by conference. If you want to see the projections like 100 other sites, go to our website at the link below.

http://piratings.webs.com/bowlprojections.htm

Here is where we see the conferences and bowl possibilities for October 15, 2014.

Note: An Asterisk (*) means this is an at-large selection because the conference cannot meet its bowl tie-in obligation due to lack of bowl eligible team.

Non Big 5 Conferences

American Athletic Conference
East Carolina is the leader in the pack to be the guaranteed Big Bowl invitee from a non Big 5 automatic qualifying conference. The four big bowls not involved in the playoffs this year are the Fiesta, Orange, Peach, and Cotton. It will not be easy, since there are tough road games left at Temple and Cincinnati, as well as a Thursday, December 4 game at home against Central Florida, who could also be undefeated in conference play when they face off in Greenville.

Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Temple should all gain bowl eligibility. If ECU earns the big bowl invitation, there will be six spots available. We believe there will be six bowl eligible teams, so if the Pirates do not earn this spot, one AAC team will not be guaranteed a bowl.

1. Peach Bowl: East Carolina (vs. Notre Dame)
2. Birmingham Bowl: Memphis (vs. Kentucky)
3. St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida (vs. Miami)
4. Miami Beach Bowl: Houston (vs. B Y U)
5. Military Bowl: Temple (vs. Virginia)
6. Armed Forces Bowl: Cincinnati (vs. Northwestern *)

Conference USA
CUSA allows its champion to select its bowl destination from among the five tie-ins. It is a safe bet that the champion will choose either the Hawaii or Bahamas Bowl.

Marshall is undefeated at 6-0, and the Thundering Herd has a legitimate path to running the table and hoping that East Carolina will fall and drop below them in the rankings. However, we PiRates are a little different. At the moment, we are not even picking Marshall to win the division. A September 20 win at Akron has been their only impressive victory to date. We believe MU will stumble in a November 22 game at UAB, and the surprising Blazers will sneak through as division winners. UAB took current number one Mississippi State deep into the game before losing and has just one semi-tough conference road game yet to play.

The West Division looks like Louisiana Tech’s for the taking. The Bulldogs should take advantage of North Texas and UTSA having subpar seasons and outlast Rice for the division flag.

1. Bahamas Bowl: Louisiana Tech (vs. Toledo)
2. Hawaii Bowl: Marshall (vs. Air Force)
3. Boca Raton Bowl: U A B (vs. Northern Illinois)
4. New Mexico Bowl: Western Kentucky (vs. Utah St.)
5. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Rice (vs. Utah *)

Independents
We do not include Notre Dame in the Independents section, since they caucus with the ACC. The other three Indies all have bowl tie-ins, but only BYU figure to be bowl eligible, as neither Army nor Navy show promise to get to six wins.

1. Miami Beach Bowl: B Y U (vs. Houston)

Mid-American
This is one year where the MAC will not have a highly-ranked team. Northern Illinois has already lost twice, and Toledo has fallen thrice in nonconference play. Still, five teams will receive invitations, and seven should be bowl eligible with a slim possibility that a sixth team earns an at-large spot.

Akron has the most impressive non-league win at Pittsburgh, but the Zips have lost to Penn State and Marshall.

The West should be decided this weekend when Central Michigan travels to Toledo.

1. Bahamas Bowl: Toledo (vs. Louisiana Tech)
2. Boca Raton Bowl: Northern Illinois (vs. UAB)
3. Idaho Potato Bowl: Akron (vs. San Diego St.)
4. Camellia Bowl: Bowling Green (vs. South Alabama)
5. GoDaddy.com Bowl: Central Michigan (vs. Georgia Southern)

Mountain West
It has been five seasons since Boise State played in a big bowl. It will be six, as the Broncos have two losses this year. The Broncos only chance is to run the table and hope both Marshall and East Carolina stub their toes. Boise finishes the regular season at home against Utah State, and the winner of that game should take the Mountain Division title, although Colorado State is still in the mix.

In the West Division, we believe 5-3 will get a team a share of the division flag, and we believe three teams will finish with that mark. San Diego State, Nevada, and Fresno State appear to be headed toward a three-way tie, but FSU will have just one non-league victory, while the other two will have two and seven total wins.

1. Las Vegas Bowl: Boise St. (vs. Stanford)
2. Poinsettia Bowl: Colorado St. (vs. Arizona St. *)
3. Hawaii Bowl: Air Force (vs. Marshall)
4. New Mexico Bowl: Utah St. (vs. Western Kentucky)
5. New Orleans Bowl: Nevada (vs. Louisiana-Lafayette)
6. Idaho Potato Bowl: San Diego St. (vs. Akron)

Sunbelt
This may be the weakest overall FBS conference, and many of its former better members have fled to Conference USA, but the SBC should produce six bowl eligible teams, and five should end up in bowls.

Georgia Southern may be in its first year as an official FBS member, but the Eagles look to be the top team in the league. They do not play Louisiana-Lafayette, and the only tough conference opponent left on their schedule is a home finale against Louisiana-Monroe.

Arkansas State continues to play well with yet another first-year coach, and we expect the Red Wolves to play in a bowl for the fourth consecutive season.

Louisiana-Lafayette did not look particularly strong in September, but losses to Ole Miss and Boise State look a little different in October. The blowout win at Texas State last night showed that the Ragin’ Cajuns are the top competitor to Georgia Southern. A road game at Louisiana-Monroe could be the deciding factor.

1. GoDaddy.com Bowl: Georgia Southern (vs. Central Michigan)
2. New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana-Lafayette (vs. Nevada)
3. Camellia Bowl: South Alabama (vs. Bowling Green)
4. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Louisiana-Monroe * (vs. Rice)
5. Texas Bowl: Arkansas St. * (vs. Florida)

Big Five Conferences

Atlantic Coast
We might be able to see into the near future when it comes to the schedule, but we cannot do the same for the police blotter. Therefore, until there is news that might affect the outcome of this conference, we will assume that no Heisman Trophy quarterbacks will miss any games.

With Jameis Winston under center, Florida State has a clear path to 13-0 and a spot in the playoffs. Without Winston, games at Louisville and at home with Virginia and Boston College are going to be losable. Of course, a home game this weekend against Notre Dame could be tough with Winston at QB. Clemson, Louisville, and Boston College will join the Seminoles in bowls, while North Carolina State and Syracuse appear to be just a little short in talent.

The Coastal Division can be taken once again with a 6-2 conference record, and after last week, we believe Duke is capable of being that team once again. Six of the seven Coastal representatives should be bowl eligible.

Notre Dame is included in the ACC when bowl bids are handed out, and the Fighting Irish are looking at 10-2, 11-1, or even 12-0. We believe at 10-2, the Irish will jump over many other teams to get a Big Bowl bid.

1. Playoff (Sugar Bowl): Florida St. (vs. Baylor)
2. Peach Bowl: Notre Dame (vs. East Carolina)
3. Russell Athletic Bowl: Duke (vs. Kansas St.)
4. Gator Bowl: Clemson (vs. Texas A&M)
5. Belk Bowl: Virginia Tech (vs. South Carolina)
6. Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech (vs. Oregon St.)
7. Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College (vs. Rutgers)
8. Military Bowl: Virginia (vs. Temple)
9. Independence Bowl: Pittsburgh (vs. Missouri)
10. Quick Lane Bowl: Louisville (vs. Maryland)
11. St. Petersburg Bowl: Miami (vs. Central Florida)

Big Ten
The Big Ten was given up for dead by October 4 when by then Ohio State had lost to Virginia Tech, Michigan State had lost to Oregon, Nebraska had lost to Michigan State, and Wisconsin had lost twice. However, we are not ready to give up on this league. Ohio State and Michigan State face off in East Lansing on November 8, and the winner of that game should win out to end the regular season at 12-1. With the SEC cannibalizing itself and with the Pac-12 looking to be the odd conference out, a 12-1 Big Ten champion should sneak into the playoff.

With 14 members and nine bowls, we believe 10 league teams will be bowl eligible. This will not be a problem, because we believe that the Big Ten will place one team in the playoffs and one team in a Big Bowl, allowing all 10 bowl eligible teams to play in a bowl.

1. Playoff (Rose Bowl): Ohio St. (vs. Ole Miss)
2. Orange Bowl: Michigan St. (vs. Auburn)
3. Capital One Bowl: Iowa (vs. Alabama)
4. Outback Bowl: Wisconsin (vs. Georgia)
5. Holiday Bowl: Nebraska (vs. Arizona)
6. Music City Bowl: Minnesota (vs. Tennessee)
7. San Francisco Bowl: Penn St. (vs. UCLA)
8. Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers (vs. Boston College)
9. Quick Lane Bowl: Maryland (vs. Louisville)
10. Armed Forces Bowl: Northwestern (vs. Cincinnati)

Big 12
The possibility is there for Baylor, Oklahoma, and TCU finishing 8-1/11-1. Baylor faces Oklahoma in Norman on November 8. For now, we are going to take the Bears all the way to the finish line, but that is not a solid choice.

Even if both Oklahoma and TCU lose a second game, it is close to a lock that a second Big 12 team will get one of the other four Big Bowl games. Because both Texas and Texas Tech look like they are headed to losing records, and Kansas and Iowa State are virtual locks to do the same, there will be just six bowl eligible teams here. Figuring that the league will send a second team to one of the Big Bowls, there will be six teams for eight spots, meaning the Texas and Heart of Dallas Bowls will have to find at-large invitees.

1. Playoff (Sugar Bowl): Baylor (vs. Florida St.)
2. Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma (vs. U S C)
3. Alamo Bowl: T C U (vs. Washington)
4. Russell Athletic Bowl: Kansas St. (vs. Duke)
5. Liberty Bowl: Oklahoma St. (vs. LSU)
6. Cactus Bowl: West Virginia (vs. Utah)

Pac-12
Arizona’s loss to USC puts the Pac-12 in a position where no team will finish 12-1, as the league is too balanced this year. USC’s loss at Boston College will prevent the Trojans from getting in. Oregon still has tough road games against Utah and Oregon State, and we believe the Ducks will drop one of these games. Washington has just one loss, but the Huskies still face Oregon at Autzen Stadium. We believe of the four Big 5 conferences, this league will be the odd man out in the playoffs in year one.

Nine teams should become bowl eligible, and the Pac-12 only receives seven guaranteed bowl bids. We believe the Pac-12 will place two teams in the Big Bowls of December 31/January 1. While losing out in the playoff chase, the conference will definitely trump all others and supply two at-large bowl bids and still come up one team short in their allotments.

1. Fiesta Bowl: U S C (vs. Oklahoma)
2. Cotton Bowl: Oregon (vs. Mississippi St.)
3. Alamo Bowl: Washington (vs. TCU)
4. Holiday Bowl: Arizona (vs. Nebraska)
5. San Francisco Bowl: U C L A (vs. Penn St.)
6. Sun Bowl: Oregon St. (vs. Georgia Tech)
7. Las Vegas Bowl: Stanford (vs. Boise St.)
8. Cactus Bowl: Utah (vs. West Virginia)
9. Poinsettia Bowl: Arizona St. * (vs. Colorado St.)

Southeastern
It has been repeated ad nauseum that the SEC West could supply all four playoff teams this year. Mississippi State and Ole Miss currently rank one and three nationally, and these two undefeated teams could both still lose twice! We don’t see that happening, as we believe one team will run the table and be the top-seeded school in the Playoff.

Alabama, the consensus choice to be the SEC’s first playoff representative has one loss and is still in the hunt, but we don’t see the Crimson Tide running the table from here. ‘Bama faces Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn in the weeks to come, and a second and possible third loss await the boys from Tuscaloosa.

The East is considerably weaker again, and Georgia benefits here. There is a chance the Bulldogs can run the table, if their defense can continue to play like it did at Missouri last week. There is also a chance UGA could lose at Arkansas this week and prove that the bottom team in the West is still better than the top team in the East.

Kentucky is one missed referee’s call from being 6-0, but we are not yet ready to buy in on the Wildcats being a Top 10 team. The Blue Mist is not even ranked at 5-1, so Coach Mark Stoops’ troops will have to earn respect by defeating a ranked team. UK gets that opportunity, because three of their next four games come against LSU, Mississippi State, and Georgia. Road contests against Missouri, Tennessee, and Louisville are not sure things, so there is still a remote possibility that Kentucky can drop six games in a row to finish out of the bowl picture. We do not see that happening.

Missouri and Tennessee still need to complete some unfinished business. Neither team has shown a propensity for playing tough on both sides of the ball in the same game. Missouri has four winnable games left and should get to six wins. Tennessee will need one upset in their final six. Ole Miss and Alabama look like sure losses, so the Vols will have to take care of South Carolina or Kentucky and defeat both Missouri and Vanderbilt to become bowl eligible. We are picking the orange and white to get that sixth win for now.

1. Playoff (Rose Bowl): Ole Miss (vs. Ohio St.)
2. Orange Bowl: Auburn (vs. Michigan St.)
3. Cotton Bowl: Mississippi St. (vs. Oregon)
4. Capital One Bowl: Alabama (vs. Iowa)
5. Outback Bowl: Georgia (vs. Wisconsin)
6. Gator Bowl: Texas A&M (vs. Clemson)
7. Music City Bowl: Tennessee (vs. Minnesota)
8. Liberty Bowl: L S U (vs. Oklahoma St.)
9. Texas Bowl: Florida (vs. Arkansas St. *)
10. Belk Bowl: South Carolina (vs. Virginia Tech)
11. Birmingham Bowl: Kentucky (vs. Memphis)
12. Independence Bowl: Missouri (vs. Pittsburgh)

The following six teams figure to be bowl eligible but jilted this season: Buffalo, Florida International, Fresno St., Middle Tennessee, Texas St., and Western Michigan

December 24, 2013

PiRate Ratings: NFL for Week 17–December 29, 2013

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:47 am

The Playoff Races In Full

A F C

 

Denver

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs with a win or tie vs. Oakland, or

A New England loss or tie against Buffalo

Falls to #2 Seed if they lose to Oakland and New England beats Buffalo

New England

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs with a win over Buffalo and a Denver loss to Oakland

Clinches #2 Seed with a win or tie vs. Buffalo, or a Cincinnati loss or tie to Baltimore and an Indianapolis loss or tie against Jacksonville

Cincinnati

Clinches #2 Seed with a win over Baltimore and a loss by New England to Buffalo

 

Wins Tiebreaker over Indianapolis for #3 Seed (Head-to-Head Win)

 

Indianapolis

Clinches #2 Seed with a win over Jacksonville and a New England loss to Buffalo and a Cincinnati loss or tie to Baltimore

 

Clinches #3 Seed with a win over Jacksonville and a Cincinnati loss or tie to Baltimore, or

 

A tie over Jacksonville and a Cincinnati loss to Baltimore

 

Kansas City

Has already clinched #5 Seed

Miami

Clinches #6 Seed with a win over the NY Jets and Baltimore loss or tie to Cincinnati, or

A win over NY Jets and a San Diego win over Kansas City, or

A tie with NY Jets, and a Baltimore loss to Cincinnati, and a San Diego loss or tie vs. Kansas City, or

A tie with NY Jets, and a Baltimore tie vs. Cincinnati, and a San Diego tie vs. Kansas City

Baltimore

Clinches #6 Seed with a win over Cincinnati and a San Diego loss or tie vs. Kansas City, or

A win over Cincinnati, and a Miami loss or tie vs. NY Jets, or

A tie vs. Cincinnati, and a Miami loss to NY Jets, and a San Diego loss or tie with Kansas City, or

A tie vs. Cincinnati, and a Miami tie with NY Jets, and a San Diego loss to Kansas City, or

A Miami loss to NY Jets, and a San Diego loss to Kansas City, and a Pittsburgh loss or tie with Cleveland

San Diego

Clinches #6 Seed with win over Kansas City, and Miami loss or tie with NY Jets, and Baltimore loss or tie with Cincinnati, or

 

A tie with Kansas City, and a Miami loss to NY Jets, and Baltimore loss to Cincinnati

Pittsburgh

Clinches #6 Seed with win over Cleveland, and Miami loss to NY Jets, and Baltimore loss to Cincinnati, and San Diego loss to Kansas City

N F C

 

Seattle

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs with a win or tie against St. Louis, or

A San Francisco loss or tie against Arizona

Carolina

Clinches #1 Seed with a win over Atlanta and a Seattle loss to St. Louis, and a San Francisco win over Arizona

Clinches #2 Seed with a win or tie with Atlanta, or

A New Orleans loss or tie with Tampa Bay

Philadelphia

Clinches #3 Seed with win or tie with Dallas

Chicago

Clinches the NFC North Division with a win or tie with Green Bay

Clinches #3 Seed with a win over Green Bay and Dallas winning the NFC East (wins tiebreaker based on head-to-head win)

Clinches #4 Seed if Philadelphia wins the NFC East, (or if Bears tie and Dallas wins)

San Francisco

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs with a win over Arizona, and a Seattle loss to St. Louis, and a Carolina loss or tie with Atlanta

Clinches #2 Seed with a win over Arizona and a Seattle loss to St. Louis

Clinches #5 Seed with win over Arizona, or

A New Orleans loss to Tampa Bay (New Orleans and Carolina both hold tiebreaker based on head-to-head win)

Clinches #6 Seed if tied with either New Orleans or Carolina or both

New Orleans

Clinches #2 Seed with win over Tampa Bay and Carolina Loss to Atlanta

 

Clinches #5 Seed with win over Tampa Bay, or

A tie with Tampa Bay and an Arizona loss or tie with San Francisco, or

An Arizona loss to San Francisco

 

Clinches #6 Seed with a loss to Tampa Bay and a San Francisco win or tie over Arizona, or

A Tie with Tampa Bay and a San Francisco tie with Arizona (holds tiebreaker over Arizona based on head-to-head win)

Arizona

Clinches #6 Seed with a win over San Francisco and a New Orleans loss or tie with Tampa Bay, or

A Tie with San Francisco, and a New Orleans loss to Tampa Bay

Dallas

Clinches #3 Seed with a win over Philadelphia and a Chicago loss or tie with Green Bay

Clinches #4 Seed with a win over Philadelphia and a Chicago win over Green Bay (loses tiebreaker to Chicago based on head-to-head loss)

Green Bay

Clinches #4 Seed with a win over Chicago

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Philadelphia Eagles

101.8

103.0

102.1

Dallas Cowboys

97.7

97.8

96.9

New York Giants

95.6

95.7

95.3

Washington Redskins

92.2

92.2

91.6

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Detroit Lions

100.3

100.3

99.9

Chicago Bears

98.8

98.4

98.3

Green Bay Packers

98.1

97.3

97.4

Minnesota Vikings

95.5

95.2

95.1

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New Orleans Saints

105.5

106.1

106.2

Carolina Panthers

105.5

105.8

105.8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

96.9

96.6

96.9

Atlanta Falcons

95.2

94.6

94.4

 

 

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

San Francisco 49ers

110.0

110.6

110.4

Seattle Seahawks

109.5

109.9

109.8

Arizona Cardinals

103.9

104.9

104.3

St. Louis Rams

100.7

101.7

101.4

       

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New England Patriots

107.1

105.5

106.9

Miami Dolphins

100.0

99.2

99.9

Buffalo Bills

97.9

97.6

98.3

New York Jets

92.8

92.0

93.0

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Cincinnati Bengals

108.1

108.5

108.4

Baltimore Ravens

100.3

100.0

100.3

Pittsburgh Steelers

99.9

99.9

100.2

Cleveland Browns

94.3

93.7

93.8

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Indianapolis Colts

102.9

103.3

103.2

Tennessee Titans

97.4

97.5

97.4

Houston Texans

92.6

91.7

92.4

Jacksonville Jaguars

90.8

90.6

90.8

       
West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Denver Broncos

110.0

110.5

110.4

San Diego Chargers

103.6

104.0

103.6

Kansas City Chiefs

103.4

104.1

103.7

Oakland Raiders

91.7

91.8

91.9

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Atlanta Carolina

-8.3

-9.2

-9.4

Chicago Green Bay

3.7

4.1

3.9

Cincinnati Baltimore

10.8

11.5

11.1

Dallas Philadelphia

-1.1

-2.2

-2.2

Tennessee Houston

6.8

7.8

7.0

Indianapolis Jacksonville

14.1

14.7

14.4

Pittsburgh Cleveland

7.6

8.2

8.4

Miami N Y Jets

10.2

10.2

9.9

Minnesota Detroit

-2.3

-2.6

-2.3

New England Buffalo

12.2

10.9

11.6

New Orleans Tampa Bay

11.6

12.5

12.3

N Y Giants Washington

5.9

6.0

6.2

Arizona San Francisco

-3.1

-2.7

-3.1

San Diego Kansas City

3.2

2.9

2.9

Seattle St. Louis

11.3

10.7

10.9

Oakland Denver

-15.3

-15.7

-15.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Playoff Projections

A F C

1. Denver

2. New England

3. Cincinnati

4. Indianapolis

5. Kansas City

6. Miami

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. Carolina

3. Philadelphia

4. Chicago

5. San Francisco

6. New Orleans

 

Wildcard Round

Cincinnati over Miami

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Philadelphia over New Orleans

San Francisco over Chicago

 

Divisional Round

Denver over Kansas City

New England over Cincinnati

Seattle over San Francisco

Philadelphia over Carolina

 

Conference Championships

New England over Denver

Philadelphia over Seattle

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

December 18, 2013

PiRate Ratings: NFL for week 16–December 19-23, 2013

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:29 pm

The Contenders

With two weeks to go in the regular season, there are still too many scenarios possible to list them all here.  We will do that next week.  For now, we will list the tiebreaking procedures and then show the standings by those procedures for the teams still in contention for playoff spots.

 

There are several tiebreaker levels, but realistically, none will go past a certain number and get into ridiculous point spread margins.

 

Here are the essential procedures for ties within a division, in order taken:

1. Head to Head—If one team swept the other, it is decided here

2. W-L-T in the division

3. W-L-T in common games

4. W-L-T in the conference

5. Strength of Victory (the combined W-L pct. of all teams defeated)

6. Strength of Schedule (the combined W-L pct. of all teams played)

 

Here are the essential procedures for ties outside of the division (for home field and wildcard use)

1. Head-to-Head

2. W-L-T in the conference

3. W-L-T in common games (but only if there are at least four such common games)

4. Strength of Victory

5. Strength of Schedule

 

Here is a look at the standings for all teams still in serious contention for the playoffs; we do not show Pittsburgh or the New York Jets, because so many things must happen for either to qualify, it is beyond normal possibility.  If they are still in contention next week, we will include them in this discussion.

 

A  F  C

Team

W-L-T

Division

Conf.

SOV

SOS

New England

10-4-0

3-2-0

7-3-0

.429

.474

Miami

8-6-0

2-2-0

7-3-0

.491

.520

Cincinnati

9-5-0

2-3-0

7-4-0

.488

.487

Baltimore

8-6-0

3-2-0

6-4-0

.415

.449

Indianapolis

9-5-0

5-0-0

7-3-0

.437

.480

Denver

11-3-0

4-1-0

7-3-0

.474

.505

Kansas City

11-3-0

2-3-0

7-3-0

.331

.408

San Diego

7-7-0

2-2-0

4-6-0

.524

.473

 

 

 

 

 

 

Head-to-Head Superiority

Baltimore over Miami

Cincinnati over Indianapolis

Cincinnati over New England

Denver over Kansas City

Indianapolis over Denver

Miami over Cincinnati

Miami over Indianapolis

Miami over San Diego

New England over Denver

 

N  F  C

Team

W-L-T

Division

Conf.

SOV

SOS

Philadelphia

8-6-0

3-2-0

7-3-0

.379

.449

Dallas

7-7-0

4-0-0

6-4-0

.362

.495

Chicago

8-6-0

2-3-0

4-6-0

.455

.452

Green Bay

7-6-1

2-2-1

5-5-1

.383

.454

Detroit

7-7-0

4-1-0

6-4-0

.429

.477

New Orleans

10-4-0

4-0-0

8-2-0

.493

.526

Carolina

10-4-0

3-1-0

7-3-0

.439

.497

Seattle

12-2-0

3-1-0

9-1-0

.438

.472

San Francisco

10-4-0

4-1-0

7-3-0

.418

.508

Arizona

9-5-0

1-3-0

5-5-0

.405

.495

 

 

 

 

 

 

Head-to-Head Superiority

Arizona over Carolina

Carolina over San Francisco

Detroit over Chicago

New Orleans over Arizona

New Orleans over Chicago

New Orleans over San Francisco

Philadelphia over Detroit

Seattle over Carolina

Seattle over New Orleans

 

 

Here are the remaining schedules for the contenders:

 

A  F  C

Team

Wk 16

Wk 17

New England

at Baltimore

Buffalo

Miami

At Buffalo

New York Jets

Cincinnati

Minnesota

Baltimore

Baltimore

New England

at Cincinnati

Indianapolis

at Kansas City

Jacksonville

Denver

at Houston

at Oakland

Kansas City

Indianapolis

at San Diego

San Diego

Oakland

Kansas City

 

N  F  C

Team

Wk 16

Wk 17

Philadelphia

Chicago

at Dallas

Dallas

at Washington

Philadelphia

Chicago

at Philadelphia

Green Bay

Green Bay

Pittsburgh

at Chicago

Detroit

New York Giants

at Minnesota

New Orleans

at Carolina

Tampa Bay

Carolina

New Orleans

at Atlanta

Seattle

Arizona

St. Louis

San Francisco

Atlanta

at Arizona

Arizona

At Seattle

San Francisco

 

This is how we see the races ending as of this week:

A F C

1. Denver

2. Cincinnati

3. New England

4. Indianapolis

5. Kansas City

6. Miami

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. Carolina

3. Philadelphia

4. Detroit

5. San Francisco

6. New Orleans

 

Wildcard Round

New England over Miami

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Philadelphia over New Orleans

San Francisco over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

Kansas City over Denver *

Cincinnati over New England

Seattle over San Francisco

Philadelphia over Carolina

 

Conference Championships

Kansas City over Cincinnati *

Seattle over Philadelphia

 

Super Bowl

Kansas City over Seattle *

 

* How could we have the Chiefs beating Denver on the road for the AFC Conference Championship and then Seattle in the Super Bowl?  It would not be the first time that Kansas City finished in second place in the West, lost twice to the first place team, and then defeated that first place team to advance to and win the Super Bowl.

 

The 11-3 Chiefs did this in 1969.  The Oakland Raiders were the class of the AFL in 1969 with a 12-1-1 record, losing only to a Cincinnati Bengal team that had perhaps the greatest quarterback ever to play less than one full season (check out our story on Greg Cook from earlier in the year).

 

The 1969 Chiefs also lost to Cook and the Bengals, but they dropped both games to Oakland.  At 11-3, KC had to face the defending Super Bowl champion Jets in New York, and the Chiefs knocked them out by completely stopping Joe Namath from throwing deep.

 

Oakland easily destroyed Houston in the other first round game.  It was 28-0 after one quarter, and “The Mad Bomber,” the great Daryle Lamonica threw six touchdown passes that day.

 

Oakland hosted Kansas City in the final AFL game.  The Raiders were favored, but the Chiefs were not to be denied.  The KC defense did the same thing to Lamonica as they had done to Namath a week earlier, and the Chiefs won 17-7.

 

Kansas City was not done.  Prohibitive underdogs to Minnesota, Kansas City held the Vikings’ offense in check to win Super Bowl IV, 23-7.  All told in three playoff games, the Chiefs gave up 20 total points to the top two offenses in the AFL and top offense in the NFL.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Philadelphia Eagles

99.0

100.0

99.2

Dallas Cowboys

97.8

98.1

97.1

New York Giants

94.5

94.4

94.1

Washington Redskins

92.1

91.9

91.4

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Chicago Bears

101.6

101.4

101.2

Detroit Lions

101.4

101.6

101.1

Green Bay Packers

98.6

97.8

97.8

Minnesota Vikings

97.3

97.3

97.1

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New Orleans Saints

105.8

106.6

106.6

Carolina Panthers

105.2

105.3

105.4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

97.2

96.9

97.3

Atlanta Falcons

94.6

93.9

93.7

 

 

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Seattle Seahawks

111.3

111.7

111.5

San Francisco 49ers

110.6

111.3

111.1

Arizona Cardinals

102.1

103.1

102.6

St. Louis Rams

100.4

101.4

101.0

       

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New England Patriots

104.6

103.0

104.4

Miami Dolphins

101.6

101.1

101.9

Buffalo Bills

96.3

95.7

96.3

New York Jets

91.8

90.8

91.9

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Cincinnati Bengals

106.3

106.4

106.4

Baltimore Ravens

102.8

102.5

102.8

Pittsburgh Steelers

99.4

99.4

99.8

Cleveland Browns

95.3

94.9

94.9

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Indianapolis Colts

101.0

101.0

101.1

Tennessee Titans

97.3

97.6

97.5

Houston Texans

93.0

92.3

92.9

Jacksonville Jaguars

90.9

90.5

90.7

       
West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Denver Broncos

109.6

109.9

109.9

Kansas City Chiefs

105.3

106.4

105.8

San Diego Chargers

103.7

104.3

103.8

Oakland Raiders

91.6

91.5

91.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Buffalo Miami

-2.8

-2.9

-3.1

Cincinnati Minnesota

12.0

12.1

12.3

Kansas City Indianapolis

7.3

8.4

7.7

St. Louis Tampa Bay

6.2

7.5

6.7

N Y Jets Cleveland

-1.0

-1.6

-0.5

Philadelphia Chicago

0.4

1.6

1.0

Washington Dallas

-2.7

-3.2

-2.7

Carolina New Orleans

2.4

1.7

1.8

Jacksonville Tennessee

-3.9

-4.6

-4.3

Houston Denver

-14.1

-14.1

-14.5

Seattle Arizona

12.2

11.6

11.9

Detroit N Y Giants

9.9

10.2

10.0

Green Bay Pittsburgh

2.0

1.2

0.8

San Diego Oakland

15.1

15.8

15.1

Baltimore New England

1.2

2.5

1.4

San Francisco Atlanta

19.0

20.4

20.4

 

August 8, 2011

The Great Bowlcott

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:31 pm

The Big Bowlcott

 

All 120 FBS college football teams have commenced with practice, and it almost feels like football season.  Actually, it feels more likeArizonaState’s preseason training camp over most of the country.  We won’t complain this winter when it snows 35 times.

 

Today, we kick off our college coverage in earnest.  We have a method that will help you participate in bringing a college football playoff. 

 

Every season, only one bowl game matters when it comes to determining the national champion.  All the other bowls are just money-generators for the bowl game and its sponsors.  Many of the bowls will not even decide a spot in the final top 25.  When two 6-6 teams square off in late December, unless you are a fan of one of those mediocre teams, who really cares about the game?

 

Our founder recalls that LSU finished a season with just one loss and did not even get invited to a bowl in 1969, because there were not enough bowls then, and Notre Dame made a late decision to accept its first bowl bid, keeping LSU from playingTexasin the Cotton Bowl.  For years, the Big Ten and Pac-8 only allowed one team to go to a bowl—the Rose Bowl. Michiganwent 10-0-1 in 1973 and stayed home for the holidays. 

 

Somewhere along the line, the post-season went from one ridiculous extreme to the opposite.  6-6 teams, and even 7-5 teams do not need to be rewarded with a 13th game.

 

The only reason there is not a playoff at the highest level of college football is the financial blackmail the current sponsors of the bowls hold over the NCAA and its participant teams.  Take away the financial bonanzas, and the sponsors would pull out.  No sponsors would mean no bowls.

 

What is it that corporations hate the most?  It’s losing money.  If hosting bowls causes them to lose customers and money, they will make a sound business decision to stop sponsoring bowl games.  Obviously, it will take thousands of boycotters, and we realize that only a thousand or so read this blog.  It will be up to you to take this and make it viral.  Spread it to all of your sports friends and tell them to spread it as well.  Maybe, someone with a little more clout will pick it up and run with it. 

 

How to Boycott The Bowl Sponsors

We are not asking you turn off the TV during any bowl game you want to watch.  Watching the game is not going to affect the sponsors’ bottom line, although it will boost the ratings of the network televising the games.

 

What we want you to do is to notify each bowl sponsor that you currently do business with and tell them that until they stop sponsoring bowl games, you will have to cease using their products.  With the exception of one or two companies, all the rest can be notified via e-mail.  With your e-mail, send a carbon copy (cc) to one of the sponsors’ competitors letting both know that you will be patronizing the company that does not sponsor bowl games.

 

It’s that simple.  You do not have to notify every company that sponsors a bowl.  If there are just three bowls where you can boycott the products of the sponsors, your voice will be heard, especially if you get some of your friends to do the same and to tell their friends, and so on.  You might add that if they decided to sponsor playoffs, you would definitely become their customer.

 

Below, we have listed the bowls, the e-mail addresses or customer relations pages that will take you directly where you need to go to tell them of your disapproval of their support of the bowl system, and their competitors that will be glad to have your business.

 

Besides the main sponsors, the bowls have other affiliated sponsors as well.  Many of these are local sponsors that can only be boycotted in the host city, but there are additional national sponsors you can boycott.  Don’t forget to look at these sponsors, as you will want to boycott their products as well.

 

It would be very difficult to inform every sponsor on the list that follows.  If you want to contribute, just pick some sponsors that you currently fraternize, stop giving them your business, and then inform them why.

 

Here we go. 

 

New Mexico Bowl—Albuquerque

 

Sponsor:Gilda Activewear, Inc. of Montreal  customerservice@gildanonline.com

 

Competitor: www.goathleticapparel.com  ofMinneapolis

 

Other Sponsors: El Pinto, Hard Rock Hotel & Casino, Hyatt Regency Hotels, Comcast

 

Idaho Potato Bowl—Boise, ID

 

Sponsor: Idaho Potato Commission  jamie.quinno@potato.idaho.gov

 

Competitor: Rather than list another potato commission, may we suggest eating sweet potatoes, especially Japanese sweet potatoes grown in America.  Japanese sweet potatoes are very nutritious.  Recent studies have shown these white-fleshed sweet potatoes to lower bad cholesterol, treat high blood pressure and anemia, and lower blood sugar, even to the point that one researcher claimed it to be a cure for diabetes.  Additionally, Japanese sweet potatoes are high in hyaluronic acid, a substance that researchers say slows aging by helping cells retain moisture, lubricating the joints and keeping skin more elastic.

 

Other Sponsors: At the time of this writing, this bowls’ sponsorship had just changed. 

 

New Orleans Bowl—New Orleans

 

Sponsor: R + L Carriers.   customerservice@rlcarriers.com 

They are a global transportation corporation. 

 

Competitor: Old Dominion Freight Lines, Inc. (Thomasville, NC)  www.odfl.com

 

Other Sponsors: Marriott and Hilton Hotels

 

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl—St. Petersburg, FL

 

Sponsor: Beef O’Brady’s   http://www.beefobradys.com/contact-us.aspx (select “Complaints” under comment topic)

 

Competitor: Why not patronize a restaurant that is locally owned instead of a corporate company.  Local owners’ must keep up their reputation first and foremost, while corporates must satisfy stockholders first and foremost.

 

Other Sponsors: Budweiser, Tradewinds Resorts, Checker Cab & Yellow Cab, Tires Plus

 

Poinsettia Bowl—San Diego

 

Sponsor: San DiegoCountyCredit Union www.sdccu.com

This boycott is for those inSan DiegoandOrangeCountiesinCalifornia.

 

Competitor: MissionFederal Credit Union  www.missionfed.com

 

Other Sponsors: Kaiser Permanente, Amtrak, Classic Party Rentals, Dr. Pepper

 

MAACO Bowl—Las Vegas

 

Sponsor: MAACO  

 

Competitor: Competitor: www.earlscheib.com   (Sherman Oaks, CA)

 

Other Sponsors: PlanetHollywood, Meadow Gold, Axe, Chevron, Cici’s Pizza, Aramark, Pepsi, Sprint

 

Hawaii Bowl—Honolulu

 

Sponsor: Sheraton Hotels (part of Starwood Hotels)      http://www.starwoodhotels.com/sheraton/support/console/email.html

 

Competitor: Use Orbitz, Travelocity, Hotels.com, Priceline, or a similar site to find a discount hotel and where possible, uncheck Sheraton as a choice option

 

Other Sponsors: Outback Steaks, AllState, Burger King, Pepsi, Papa John’s Pizza,Toyota, Xerox, Napa Auto Parts

 

Independence Bowl—Shreveport, LA

 

Sponsor: Advocare v100  

 

Competitor: Advocare is a multivitamin and supplement company catering to athletes. 

Our founder speaks here: As a professional nutritional consultant with more than 1000 hours of nutritional research study over the last 30+ years and as a former nutritional rep to the health food industry, I would recommend using a whole-food vitamin (not Whole Foods the company, but a vitamin made from real whole foods and not made from a chemist).  I would recommend using organic only and using one that does not contain added sugars or sugar substitutes.  Advocare uses Sucralose, Fructose, and even High Fructose Corn Syrup in its products, which in my expert opinion are the opposite of nutritional.

I recommend consulting one of three online companies to find the right supplements for you—Lucky Vitamins (www.luckyvitamins.com), Iherb (www.iherb.com), and VitaCost (www.vitacost.com).  I have recommended many vitamin/mineral supplements through the years, including: New Chapter and Megafood for multivitamins/minerals, Natural Factors non-denatured Whey Protein Powder, NOW Coenzyme B-Complex, Nature’s Way Enteric-Coated Fish Oil, Natural Factors Coenzyme Q10, and Source Naturals Ascorbyl Palmitate (a fat-soluble vitamin c ester).  Treat your body like a temple and not a dumpster.

 

Other Sponsors: AT&T, Capital One, General Electric, Yellow Book

 

Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl—Detroit

 

Sponsor: Little Caesar’s Pizza  www.littlecaesars.com 1-800-7-CAESAR

For this bowl, it might be more effective if you contacted your local franchise owner/manager and inform him/her that you can no longer be a customer of Little Caesar’s because you are participating in a national boycott of all college football bowl games.

 

Competitor: Again our founder speaks on nutrition: I was a pizza aficionado for many years before giving it up cold turkey.  Today, I do not consume Pasteurized/homogenized dairy (just raw goat’s milk from goats I own and do not sell to others lest the USDA send a bunch of thugs here like they have to Amish farms and to arrest members of the Weston A. Price Foundation) nor grains of any kind. I consume “raw pizza” made from sprouted nuts, sundried tomatoes, and herbs that have been dehydrated in a food dehydrator.  

For those that have to eat pizza, then you should only settle for the real deal.  I would only go with an authentic Brooklyn/Manhattan style with thin, crisp crust that has some char in it.  If you do not have an authentic Brooklyn/Manhattan style pizzeria, then you should learn how to make a reasonable facsimile thereof. 

If you need a pizza chain, try Sir Pizza or Pizza Hut.  With the chains, there isn’t much difference—they are all subpar.

 

Other Sponsors: Ford, GM, AT&T, AllState, Blue Cross/Blue Shield, Comcast, Meijer

 

Belk Bowl—Charlotte  

 

Sponsor: www.belk.com  1-866-235-5443 (no e-mail address for customer service)

Belk apparently has one of the worst customer service departments of any retail establishment in the western world.  There are numerous complaints found online at multiple locations detailing how this company has alienated a lot of its former regular customers, one of whom was charged an interest rate of more than 26% on a Belk card that had an automatic bill pay set up.  Belk changed its due date with no prior notice!  This does not seem to have been a one-time incident.

 

Competitor: J. C. Penney   www.jcpenney.com  (Plano, TX)

 

Other Sponsors: Havoline, AllState, Hilton, Hampton Inn,

 

Military Bowl—Washington, DC

Sponsor: Northrop Grumman   This game cannot be boycotted the same way as the other bowls.  You will have to boycott the TV sponsors for this one.  I doubt many people in need of a defense contractor are reading this post.

Other Sponsors: Geico, Marriott Hotels, Hyundai, and Miller Beer

 

Holiday Bowl—San Diego

 

Sponsor: Bridgepoint Education   info@bridgepointeducation.com

While two actual campus sites are available for this for-profit college, almost all of its students are online distance learning students.

 

Competitor: The Universityof Phoenixcan be found in almost all big cities. www.phoenix.edu  e-mail: media@phoenix.edu

 

Other Sponsors: Bank ofAmerica, Bumble Bee Tuna, Dr. Pepper, Jack in the Box, US Bank, Wells Fargo Bank

 

Champs Sports Bowl—Orlando

 

Sponsor: Champs Sports  http://www.champssports.com/content/feedback/

 

Champs Sports also owns Foot Locker, Lady Foot Locker, Kids Foot Locker, Footaction,EastBay, and CCS

 

Competitor: Dick’s Sporting Goods   www.dickssportinggoods.com  (Pittsburgh)

 

Other Sponsors: Budweiser, Coca-Cola/Dasani Water, RBC Bank

 

Alamo Bowl—San Antonio

 

Sponsor: Valero  customer.relations@valero.com

Valero is an oil refiner and marketer with numerous gas stations in the Southwest.  They own Diamond Shamrock as well as Valero and Valero Corner Stores.

 

Competitor: Any other oil company

 

Other Sponsors: Dr. Pepper, American Airlines, AT&T

 

Armed Forces Bowl—Dallas (@ SMU’s Gerald Ford Stadium)

 

Sponsor:BellHelicopter

Similar to the Military Bowl, you will need to boycott the other sponsors of this game. 

 

Other Sponsors: American Airlines, BBVA Compass, Chick-fil-A, and Omni Hotels

 

Pinstripe Bowl—Bronx, NY

 

Sponsor: New Era  http://shop.neweracap.com/infoPages/contact.php

 

Competitor: Genesco, Inc.  www.genesco.com (Nashville)

 

Other Sponsors: Ford, Benjamin Moore Paint, Hess

 

Music City Bowl—Nashville

 

Sponsor: FranklinAmerican Mortgage  smedes@franklinamerican.com

 

Competitor: There are many mortgage lenders throughout the nation.  Here is a great free tool that will help you find the best mortgage for your situation: http://mortgagemavin.com/Tutorial/Mortgage-Tutorial.aspx

 

Other Sponsors: Gaylord Hotels, Dollar General, SunTrust Bank, Comcast

 

Insight Bowl—Tempe, AZ

 

Sponsor: (The Fiesta Bowl and Insight Bowl are under the same auspices—see Fiesta Bowl for boycott information).

 

Meineke Car Care Bowl—Houston

 

Sponsor: Meineke Car Care   www.meineke.com/ContactUs/CustomerService.aspx

 

Competitor: Midas, Inc.  www.midas.com (Itasca, IL)

 

Other Sponsors: AllState, Budweiser, Chick-fil-A, Buffalo Wild Wings, Astra Zeneca, Coca-Cola, Comcast, Doubletree Hotels, Hyatt Regency Hotels,  Exxon Mobil, H-E-B, Halliburton, Marriott, McDonald’s, Nordstrom, Office Max, Panera Bread, Papa John’s Pizza, Ramada Inn, Wrangler Jeans, Yellow Cab

 

Sun Bowl—El Paso, TX

 

Sponsor: Hyundai  www.hyundaiusa.com/contact-us.aspx

(also includes Kia)

 

Competitor: Contact your local Hyundai and Kia dealers and tell them that while you believe their cars are quality vehicles, you must boycott their dealerships due to their parent company’s sponsorship of a bowl game.  Then, tell them where you intend to purchase your vehicle (make sure it is not one to boycott from another bowl).

 

Other Sponsors: Academy Sports and Outdoors, Bank of the West,

 

Liberty Bowl—Memphis, TN

 

Sponsor: AutoZone   https://www.autozone.com/autozone/contactus/customerService.jsp;jsessionid=C6190F4A95D47C7207C806ABC84575A6.diyprod5-b2c15?landingPageCategory=inOurStores&title=customer+service

 

Competitor: Advance Auto Parts (Roanoke, VA) http://shop.advanceautoparts.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/home___

 

Other Sponsors: Fedex, AT&T, Marriott & Hilton Hotels, Doubletree Hotels, Nike, Burger King

 

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl—San Francisco

 

Sponsor: Kraft Foods   http://www.kraftfoodscompany.com/contacts/pages/other-contacts-form.aspx?ft=other&subj=Other

 

Includes A-1 Sauce, Athenos, Balance Bars, Boca Burgers, Breakstone, Bull’s Eye BBQ Sauce, California Pizza Kitchen & DiGiorno frozen pizza , Capri Sun, Cheez Whiz, Chips Ahoy, Cool Whips, Crystal Light, Grey Poupon, Honey Maid, Jell-O and Knox Gelatine, Kool-Aid, Maxwell House, Miracle Whip, Nabisco, Oreo Cookie, Oscar-Meyer Planter’s Nuts, South Beach, Tang, and Velveeta

 

Competitor: General Mills (maker of Betty Crocker, Bisquick, Cascadian Farm, Cheerios, Chex, Fiber One, Gold Medal Flour, Good Earth, Green Giant, Haagen-Dazs, Hamburger Helper, Larabar, Lucky Charms, Macaroni Grill, Muir Glen, Nature Valley, Old El Paso, Pillsbury, Progresso, Total Cereal, Totino’s and Jeno’s, Trix Cereal, Wanchai Ferry, Wheaties, and Yoplait)

 

Other Sponsors: Honda, Enterprise Rent-a-Car, Macy’s Wells Fargo, AllState, Yellow Pages,

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl—Atlanta

 

Sponsor: Chick-fil-A  www.chick-fil-a.com/Connect/Contact-Us-CARES

 

Competitor: As stated above, please patronize your local establishments.  When you pay money to a local restaurateur, that money stays in your local area and is used again in your town.  

 

Other Sponsors: AT&T, Coca-Cola, Delta Airlines, Ticketmaster, BB&T Bank, Russell Athletic, Home Depot, Hilton and Marriott Hotels, Honda, Kia

 

Ticket City Bowl—Dallas (@ Cotton Bowl)

 

Sponsor: TicketCity   www.ticketcity.com/contact-form.html?e=3

 

Competitor: Stubhub, Inc.   www.stubhub.com

 

Other Sponsors: Dean Foods, Ernst & Young, Hilton Hotels, Renaissance Hotels, Embassy Suites, Hyatt Regency Hotels, Enterprise Rent-a-Car

 

Capital One Bowl—Orlando

 

Sponsor: Capital One   webinfo@capitalone.com

 

Capital One is another company with several thousands of online complaints (2.9 million returns on search for complaints), many of which do not involve lack of payment on the card.  As radio talk show host Dave Ramsey says, you should do a little plastic surgery and cut up that card.

 

Competitor: If you must take on debt, then consider Southwest Airlines Rapid Rewards® Premier Credit Card from Chase.   http://www.mychasecreditcards.com/southwest/affiliate?AFFID=KB4qoSTKkC8-iZ4lTMucfAHGCFmhbBL1Ew&pvid=f58027ae8c5f682fe1149ffe96c0fe1c

 

Other Sponsors: Coca-Cola/Dasani Water, Budweiser

 

Gator Bowl—Jacksonville

 

Sponsor: Progressive Insurance   www.progressive.com/contact-us.aspx

Just say “No” to Flo.

 

Competitor: As a former insurance rehabilitation contractor, I can speak first-hand about the companies that seemed to me to be most customer friendly.  I liked State Farm, Travelers, and Prudential.

 

Other Sponsors: Aetna, AllState, AT&T, BB&T, BBVA Compass, BJ’s Wholesale Club, Budweiser, Coca-Cola, Domino’s Pizza, Gatorade, Hallmark Cards, Hyatt-Regency Hotels, Jim Beam, McAlister’s Deli, McDonald’s, Merrill Lynch, Regions Bank, SunTrust Bank, Toyota, Xfinity, Wells Fargo

 

Outback Bowl—Tampa

 

Sponsor: Outback Steakhouse   www.outback.com/contactus/generalcomment.aspx

 

Competitor: TexasRoadhouse   www.texasroadhouse.com

 

Other Sponsors: Budweiser, Mercedes-Benz, Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, MetLife, Westin Hotels, Trane, Hyatt-Regency, Kia, Coca-Cola

 

Rose Bowl—Pasadena, CA

 

Sponsor: Vizio   www.vizio.com/contacts/

 

Competitor: Samsung   www.samsung.com

 

Other Sponsors: Tournament of Roses

 

Sugar Bowl—New Orleans

 

Sponsor: Allstate Insurance   https://messaging.allstate.com/corp.aspx

Here is another corporation where I have first-hand experience in dealing with their clients.  Following a major April of 1998 tornado that caused massive damage to thousands of homes in Middle Tennessee, there was a not-so-funny joke going around about all the houses that still had blue tarps covering their roofs a year later—those were All-State’s clients.  An online search for complaints turned up 974K responses.

 

Competitor: State Farm, Travelers, and Prudential

 

Other Sponsors: AT&T, Hilton & Mariott Hotels, Taco Bell, Domino’s Sugar, Ticketmaster

 

Orange Bowl—Miami

 

Sponsor: Discover Card  1-800-discover (you must register to send an email, so flood their switchboard with calls)

 

Competitor: Southwest Airlines Rapid Rewards® Premier Credit Card from Chase   http://www.mychasecreditcards.com/southwest/affiliate?AFFID=KB4qoSTKkC8-iZ4lTMucfAHGCFmhbBL1Ew&pvid=f58027ae8c5f682fe1149ffe96c0fe1c

 

Other Sponsors: American Airlines, Bacardi Rum, Budweiser, Coca-Cola, Publix, Reese’s Peanut Butter, Ryder, Taco Bell,Toyota

 

Fiesta Bowl—Tempe, AZ

 

Sponsor: Tostitos (Frito-Lay)  www.fritolay.com/about-us/contact-us.html

Talk about the opposite of nutrition.  Start with genetically modified corn.  Throw in unhealthy canola and/or soy oils, again genetically modified.  I could go on and on.  It is easy enough to purchase organic potatoes, slice them into thin pieces, sprinkle a little organic olive oil on them and then bake them in a hot oven.

 

Competitor: For those that absolutely must eat junk food, try Kettle Chips   www.kettlebrand.com/  Kettle Chips are free of trans fats, GMO ingredients or oils, and artificial ingredients.  They make an organic chip.

 

Other Sponsors: Chevrolet

 

Cotton Bowl—Arlington, TX (@ Cowboys Stadium)

 

Sponsor: AT&T  www.att.com

AT&T quite possible has the very worst customer service in the history of retail business.  A search for AT&T complaints online turns up more than 3.6 million results.  There are many horror stories including threats against those e-mailing complaints to the company.

 

Competitor: Verizon, Sprint-Nextel, T-Mobile for communications; your local cable provider, Directv, or dish network for entertainment.

 

Other Sponsors:EnterpriseRent-a-Car, Samsung, Dr. Pepper, Snapple, American Airlines, Wilson Sporting Goods, Hyatt-Regency Hotels, Lawry’s Seasoning Salt, Buick-Pontiac-GMC Truck, Hilton Hotels

 

BBVA Compass Bowl—Birmingham

 

Sponsor: BBVA Compass Bank  www.bbvacompass.com/contact/   Compass Bank operates in the states ofAlabama,Arizona,California,Colorado,Florida,New Mexico andTexas

 

Competitor: Many in each market.  Consider a locally owned bank if you have one, but check their rating first.

 

Other Sponsors: Ramada Inn, Sheraton, Golden Flake Potato Chips, Taxslayer.com, Chick-fil-A

 

GoDaddy.com Bowl—Mobile, AL

 

Sponsor: GoDaddy.com web-hosting   PR@GoDaddy.com

 

Competitor: Read current web-hosting reviews at: http://www.hosting-review.com/?gclid=CLPenrDUpKoCFcYE2godhDbOWA

 

Other Sponsors: Coca-Cola, Quality Inn, Comcast, Courtyard by Marriott, Fedex, Chevrolet, Red Lobster

 

 

The bowls could be retained and coexist with a playoff, and they could even be better than they are now.  What if instead of having to invite a bunch of 6-6 and 7-5 teams, every bowl participant was 0-0?  Then, it would be impossible to state that any team was undeserving of a bowl game. 

 

Why not move the bowls to the opening week of the season?  Make it like the Preseason NIT and other in-season tournaments in college basketball.  By moving a bowl from January to the first Saturday in September, the bowls and the participating teams would have months to prepare for the games.  Instead of having 30+ meaningless bowls, all of them would now be very important. 

 

Imagine a scenario whereAlabamaandOklahomafaced off in the preseason Cotton Bowl at Cowboys’ Stadium.  What aboutPennStateplayingFloridaStatein the preseason Sugar Bowl?  What ifNevadaplayedTulsain the New Mexico Bowl?  The game would be an exciting one to watch, and the winner could use it as a springboard to possibly move into the playoff picture. 

 

The Rose Bowl could be like today’s ACC/Big Ten basketball challenge in December. OhioStatecould playOregoninPasadenaon the first Saturday in September as a great kickoff to the season.  And, unlike the current bowl situation, the loser could still win the national championship.

 

The bowl officials would then have all winter, spring, and summer to plan and promote their opening week spectaculars.  Hotel reservations could be made months in advance.  There could be even more festivities planned with all the extra time, since the participating teams and the public would know well in advance which teams would be headed to each bowl.

 

This plan also would allow some teams that have never been to a bowl or have not been in decades a chance to go bowling and bring along very enthusiastic fans.  ImagineKentStateandNew MexicoStatebeing invited to play each other in a bowl.  The Golden Flashes have not tasted a postseason game since 1972, while the Aggies have been left out since 1960!  This game would generate a lot more interest than two 6-6 teams playing around Christmas.

 

If there were playoffs instead of bowls, then the public would not be faced with so many patsy games likePennStatevs.Indiana State,Illinoisvs.Arkansas State,Nebraskavs.Chattanooga,MichiganState vs.YoungstownState, andIowavs. Tennessee Tech.  Instead of worrying about automatic wins over FCS and low-tiered FBS teams, the top teams would need to increase their strengths of schedule, just like the need for basketball teams to schedule with RPI in mind.  Which games would draw more ratings for the telecasters?  The ones mentioned above or 35 games similar to the pair of opening week classic games scheduled this year—Georgiavs.BoiseStateand LSU vs.Oregon?  Here is one example for what could be:

 

Date

Time EDT

Bowl Team Team
Th 9/1

7:00 PM

Beef O’Brady’s Northwestern North Carolina St.
Th 9/1

7:30 PM

New Orleans Kansas St. Colorado
Th 9/1

8:00 PM

New Mexico Oregon St. San Diego St.
Th 9/1

9:00 PM

Humanitarian Purdue Utah
Fr 9/2

7:00 PM

MAACO BostonCollege Connecticut
Fr 9/2

8:00 PM

Independence Air Force Virginia
Fr 9/2

9:30 PM

Poinsettia Washington B Y U
Fr 9/2

11:00 PM

Hawaii S M U Hawaii
Sa 9/3

12:00 PM

Little Caesar’s Illinois Rutgers
Sa 9/3

12:00 PM

Belk Clemson South Florida
Sa 9/3

12:30 PM

Military North Carolina Cincinnati
Sa 9/3

1:00 PM

Champs Sports Miami(Fl) Auburn
Sa 9/3

1:00 PM

Pinstripe Pittsburgh Georgia Tech
Sa 9/3

1:30 PM

Liberty MississippiState Tulsa
Sa 9/3

1:30 PM

Chick-fil-A PennState West Virginia
Sa 9/3

2:30 PM

Compass Tennessee Central Florida
Sa 9/3

2:30 PM

GoDaddy.com Southern Miss. Kentucky
Sa 9/3

3:00 PM

MusicCity Michigan Louisville
Sa 9/3

3:00 PM

Sun Texas MichiganState
Sa 9/3

3:30 PM

TicketCity Missouri Houston
Sa 9/3

3:30 PM

Armed Forces Arizona Baylor
Sa 9/3

6:00 PM

Capital One OhioState Florida
Sa 9/3

6:15 PM

Outback Georgia Virginia Tech
Sa 9/3

6:30 PM

Fight Hunger U C L A Nevada
Sa 9/3

7:45 PM

Meineke Car Care Ole Miss Maryland
Sa 9/3

8:00 PM

Alamo ArizonaState Iowa
Sa 9/3

9:30 PM

Insight TexasTech California
Sa 9/3

10:30 PM

Holiday Southern Cal T C U
Su 9/4

2:00 PM

Gator South Carolina OklahomaState
Su 9/4

3:00 PM

Cotton FloridaState Nebraska
Su 9/4

4:30 PM

Sugar BoiseState Arkansas
Su 9/4

6:00 PM

Orange L S U TexasA&M
Mo 9/5

8:00 PM

Champions * Alabama Oregon
Mo 9/5

8:30 PM

Fiesta Oklahoma Notre Dame
Mo 9/5

9:00 PM

Rose Stanford Wisconsin

 

* The Champions Bowl replaces the current National Championship Bowl Game and will pit the two most recent national champions.

 

Now, ask yourself this question: would you rather watch the big teams slaughter the FCS teams in week one, or would you rather watch this list of 35 games that will go a long way in determining power ratings for playoff seeding in December?

December 26, 2008

PiRate Ratings Week 17 NFL Previews: December 28, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 17

Still Much To Be Decided

 

It seems like the end of the NFL season has come quickly this year.  Maybe it seems that way because last season coincided with the Presidential election that seemed to last forever.

 

Unfortunately, the end of this season coincides with too many holiday plans, and this preview will be abbreviated.  I will list all the playoff possibilities in this article in addition to the standings, ratings, and games.  I won’t list an in-depth game by game preview or make picks due to those time limitations.

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

Current NFL Standings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New York

12

3

0

408

274

108.60

107.65

107.11

2

Dallas

9

6

0

356

321

102.49

103.67

103.29

2

Philadelphia

8

6

1

372

283

106.53

105.48

103.26

2

Washington

8

7

0

241

269

98.55

99.31

99.83

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Minnesota

9

6

0

359

314

104.06

103.81

103.64

2

Chicago

9

6

0

351

319

102.96

101.42

102.34

2

Green Bay

5

10

0

388

359

103.77

101.48

98.91

2

Detroit

0

15

0

247

486

86.86

88.16

86.27

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Carolina

11

4

0

381

298

106.14

105.11

106.11

2

Atlanta

10

5

0

360

298

105.19

104.46

105.79

2

Tampa Bay

9

6

0

337

292

104.06

102.01

102.68

2

New Orleans

8

7

0

432

360

104.61

104.52

102.09

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Arizona

8

7

0

393

405

97.60

97.33

99.25

3

San Francisco

6

9

0

312

357

94.23

95.55

96.42

3

Seattle

4

11

0

273

358

92.89

94.36

94.11

3

St. Louis

2

13

0

205

434

84.00

86.47

86.56

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Miami

10

5

0

321

300

98.73

99.42

102.29

2

New England

10

5

0

397

309

103.21

104.76

105.46

2

New York

9

6

0

388

332

100.62

99.48

100.88

2

Buffalo

7

8

0

336

329

96.92

96.82

98.41

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Pittsburgh

11

4

0

316

223

108.32

107.71

106.47

2

Baltimore

10

5

0

358

237

108.82

107.90

106.01

3

Cleveland

4

11

0

232

319

95.34

94.57

92.24

2

Cincinnati

3

11

1

188

358

92.20

93.93

93.29

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Tennessee

13

2

0

375

211

110.38

109.14

108.97

2

Indianapolis

11

4

0

354

298

104.55

104.95

105.76

2

Houston

7

8

0

335

370

98.63

98.85

99.16

3

Jacksonville

5

10

0

295

340

97.86

97.78

97.59

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Denver

8

7

0

349

396

95.68

96.24

98.05

2

San Diego

7

8

0

387

326

103.66

103.18

102.23

2

Oakland

4

11

0

232

364

91.06

92.37

93.35

2

Kansas City

2

13

0

285

424

91.49

92.05

92.17

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 The Playoffs Scenarios

NFC Already in Playoffs

New York Giants: Clinched #1 Seed & home field advantage

Carolina: Clinched a playoff spot

Atlanta: Clinched a playoff spot

Arizona: Clinched West Division and will play on first weekend of the playoffs

 

NFC Scenarios

NFC EAST

DALLAS

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus a Chicago loss or tie and a Tampa Bay loss

C. A tie plus a Minnesota loss or tie and a Tampa Bay loss

D. A tie plus a Chicago loss and a Tampa Bay tie

E. A tie plus a Minnesota loss and a Tampa Bay tie

 

PHILADELPHIA

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus losses by Tampa Bay and Minnesota

B. A win plus losses by Tampa Bay and Chicago

 

NFC NORTH

MINNESOTA

Clinches Division with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus Chicago loss or tie

C. A Chicago loss

 

CHICAGO

Clinches Division with:

A. A win plus a Minnesota loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Minnesota loss

 

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Minnesota win and losses or ties by both Dallas and Tampa Bay

B. A tie plus losses by both Dallas and Tampa Bay

 

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA has already clinched a playoff spot

Clinches Division and First Round Bye with:

A. A win plus a Carolina loss

 

CAROLINA has already clinched a playoff spot

Clinches Division and First Round Bye with:

A. A win or tie

B. An Atlanta loss or tie

 

TAMPA BAY

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Dallas loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Dallas loss and Minnesota loss or tie

C. A tie plus a Dallas loss and a Chicago loss or tie

D. A tie plus a Dallas tie and a Minnesota tie and a Chicago win or tie

E. A tie plus a Dallas tie and a Chicago tie and a Minnesota win or tie

 

AFC Already in Playoffs

Tennessee: Clinched #1 seed & home field advantage

Pittsburgh: Clinched division & first round bye

 

AFC Scenarios

AFC EAST

The AFC East Division Winner will play on the first weekend of the playoffs

 

MIAMI

Can clinch the Division with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus a New England loss or tie

 

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A tie plus a Baltimore loss

 

NEW ENGLAND

Can clinch the Division with:

A. A win plus a Miami loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Miami loss

 

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Baltimore loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Baltimore loss

 

NEW YORK JETS

Can clinch the Division with:

A. A win plus a New England loss

 

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Baltimore loss

 

AFC NORTH

(Pittsburgh has already won the division and secured a first-round bye as the #2 seed)

 

BALTIMORE

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus a Miami loss or tie

C. A tie plus a New England loss or tie

D. A New England loss

 

AFC SOUTH

Tennessee has clinched division and the #1 seed, while Indianapolis has clinched a Wildcard

 

AFC WEST

DENVER plays At SAN DIEGO.  The winner of this game wins the Division.  It the game ends in a tie, then Denver wins the Division.  The Division winner will play on the first weekend of the playoffs.

 

If The Season Ended Today

NFC Seedings

1. New York Giants

2. Carolina

3. Minnesota

4. Arizona

5. Atlanta

6. Dallas

 

Dallas would play at Minnesota and Atlanta would play at Arizona.  The higher remaining seed would then play at Carolina and the weaker remaining seed would play at the New York Giants

 

AFC Seedings

1. Tennessee

2. Pittsburgh

3. Miami

4. Denver

5. Indianapolis

6. Baltimore

 

Baltimore would play at Miami and Indianapolis would play at Denver.  The higher remaining seed would then play at Pittsburgh and the weaker remaining seed would play at Tennessee

 

Here Is My Best Guess As To How The Season Will End

 

In the NFC, Philadelphia will take advantage of home field advantage and a revenge factor and defeat Dallas.

 

Atlanta will dismiss St. Louis with ease.

 

Carolina will stumble at New Orleans as Drew Brees finishes off one of the best passing seasons ever.

 

Tampa Bay handles Oakland at home but not by much.

 

Minnesota struggles but hangs up to beat the New York Giants after the Giants pull their starters in the second half.

 

Chicago falls at Houston as the Texans finish 8-8.

 

That would leave Atlanta and Minnesota as division champions and Tampa Bay as the final Wildcard.  Dallas, Philadelphia, and Chicago would be eliminated.

 

In the AFC, Miami will take advantage of Brett Favre’s shoulder problems and take out the Jets at the Meadowlands.

 

New England will go to Buffalo and put up some big numbers in a win, looking like the true dark horse Super Bowl contender (but only until the Baltimore game ends).

 

Baltimore will methodically defeat Jacksonville in a rough game and ruin the weekend for fans in New England.

 

San Diego will take some revenge against Denver and claim the West Division title.

 

That would leave Miami and San Diego as division champions and Baltimore as the final Wildcard team.

 

Note: Weather forecasts and odds are those as of Friday, December 26, 2008, 12 Noon EST

 

You will now see multiple numbers given in the Vegas line and Ov/Un.  I am listing the range given by the different books in Vegas and offshore as of 12 Noon EST Friday, so you can use the one that best meets your needs.  Remember though, if you use parlays and teasers, you must use the same source.  You cannot play a parlay using the odds from different books.  There are no picks this week due to lack of time to study the games..

 

I leave it to you to find out the book in question regarding the spreads.  Generally, some of the big ones in Vegas are: Hilton, Caesar’s-Harrah’s, MGM Mirage, Stations, Leroy’s, Wynn, Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, and The Palms.  Some of the large offshore books include: BetUs, Bodog, Sportsbook, BetJamaica, and Pinnacle.

 

Average Simulation Scores for each game are now rounded to nearest whole number.

 

Note: The ratings and the simulations do not take into account the fact that some teams will not play their regulars much if at all this week.

 

NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings-Week 17

 

Kansas City (2-13-0) at Cincinnati (3-11-1)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, strong wind, temperature in the mid 40’s

 

PiRate:                Cincinnati by 3               

Mean:                  Cincinnati by 4

Bias:                    Cincinnati by 3

 

Vegas:               Cincinnati by 2.5 to 3

Ov/Un:               37.5 to 38.5

 

100 Sims:           Cincinnati 78  Kansas City 22

Avg Sim Score:  Cincinnati 29  Kansas City 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Cincinnati 40  Kansas City 21

Outlier 1b Sim:  Kansas City 24  Cincinnati 14

 

 

St. Louis (2-13-0) at Atlanta (10-5-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Atlanta by 23

Mean:                  Atlanta by 20

Bias:                    Atlanta by 21

 

Vegas:               14 to 15.5  

Ov/Un:               44 to 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Atlanta 98  St. Louis 2

Avg Sim Score:  Atlanta 33  St. Louis 11

Outlier 1a Sim:  Atlanta 52  St. Louis 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  St. Louis 24  Atlanta 21

 

 

New England (10-5-0) at Buffalo (7-8-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain Showers, Very Strong Wind, Unseasonably mild temperature near 50

 

PiRate:                New England by 8

Mean:                  New England by 10

Bias:                    New England by 9

 

Vegas:               6 to 7   

Ov/Un:               40 to 41

 

100 Sims:           New England 73  Buffalo 27

Avg Sim Score:  New England 34  Buffalo 28

Outlier 1a Sim:  New England 45  Buffalo 23

Outlier 1b Sim:  Buffalo 31  New England 20

 

 

Detroit (0-15-0) at Green Bay (5-10-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Light snow ending after game starts, moderate wind, temperature in low 20’s

 

PiRate:                Green Bay by 19

Mean:                  Green Bay by 15

Bias:                    Green Bay by 15

 

Vegas:               Green Bay by 10 to 11.5      

Ov/Un:               42.5 to 43

 

100 Sims:           Green Bay 64  Detroit 35  1 Tie

Avg Sim Score:  Green Bay 33  Detroit 29

Outlier 1a Sim:  Green Bay 24  Detroit 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  Detroit 38  Green Bay 30

 

 

Tennessee (13-2-0) at Indianapolis (11-4-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome should be closed

 

PiRate:                Tennessee by 4

Mean:                  Tennessee by 2

Bias:                    Tennessee by 1

 

Vegas:                Tennessee by 3

Ov/Un:               38 to 38.5

 

100 Sims:           Indianapolis 58  Tennessee 42

Avg Sim Score:  Indianapolis 25  Tennessee 23

Outlier 1a Sim:  Indianapolis 28  Tennessee 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  Tennessee 24  Indianapolis 10

 

 

Chicago (9-6-0) at Houston (7-8-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Mostly sunny, light wind, temperature around 60

 

PiRate:                Chicago by 1

Mean:                  Tossup

Bias:                    Tossup

 

Vegas:               Houston by 2.5 to 3  

Ov/Un:               46 to 46.5

 

100 Sims:           Houston 51  Chicago 49

Avg Sim Score:  Houston 27  Chicago 27

Outlier 1a Sim:  Houston 37  Chicago 20

Outlier 1b Sim:  Chicago 32  Houston 17

 

 

Oakland (4-11-0) at Tampa Bay (9-6-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature near 80

 

PiRate:                Tampa Bay by 15

Mean:                  Tampa Bay by 12

Bias:                    Tampa Bay by 11

 

Vegas:               Tampa Bay by 12.5 to 14

Ov/Un:               39 to 39.5

 

100 Sims:           Tampa Bay 89  Oakland 11

Avg Sim Score:  Tampa Bay 26  Oakland 12

Outlier 1a Sim:  Tampa Bay 38  Oakland 7

Outlier 1b Sim:  Oakland 27  Tampa Bay 21

 

 

Cleveland (4-11-0) at Pittsburgh (11-4-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain showers, strong wind, temperature in low to mid 50’s

 

PiRate:                Pittsburgh by 15

Mean:                 Pittsburgh by 15

Bias:                    Pittsburgh by 16

 

Vegas:                Pittsburgh by 10.5 to 11.5

Ov/Un:               31.5 to 33

 

100 Sims:           Pittsburgh 97  Cleveland 3

Avg Sim Score:  Pittsburgh 29  Cleveland 11

Outlier 1a Sim:  Pittsburgh 49  Cleveland 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Cleveland 13  Pittsburgh 10 (2 other 3-point wins)

 

 

New York Giants (12-3-0) at Minnesota (9-6-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Giants by 3

Mean:                 Giants by 2

Bias:                    Giants by 1

 

Vegas:                Minnesota by 7 to 7.5

Ov/Un:               42

 

100 Sims:           Giants 54  Minnesota 46

Avg Sim Score:  Giants 23  Minnesota 20

Outlier 1a Sim:  Giants 31  Minnesota 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Minnesota 27  Giants 17

 

 

Carolina (11-4-0) at New Orleans (8-7-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Tossup

Mean:                  New Orleans by 1

Bias:                    Carolina by2

 

Vegas:               Carolina by 2.5 to 3

Ov/Un:               51.5 to 52.5

 

100 Sims:           New Orleans 55  Carolina 45

Avg Sim Score:  New Orleans 33  Carolina 32

Outlier 1a Sim:  New Orleans 44  Carolina 27

Outlier 1b Sim:  Carolina 35  New Orleans 20

 

 

Jacksonville (5-10-0) at Baltimore (10-5-0)

Time:           4:15PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Showers, moderate wind, temperature dropping from around 60 to the mid 50’s

 

PiRate:                Baltimore by 14

Mean:                 Baltimore by 13

Bias:                   Baltimore by 11

 

Vegas:               Baltimore by 12 to 13.5

Ov/Un:               36 to 36.5

 

100 Sims:           Baltimore 83  Jacksonville 16  1 Tie

Avg Sim Score:  Baltimore 25  Jacksonville 13

Outlier 1a Sim:  Baltimore 24  Jacksonville 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  Jacksonville 20  Baltimore 14

 

 

Dallas (9-6-0) at Philadelphia (8-6-1)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Rain showers, moderate wind, temperature falling through the 50’s

 

PiRate:                Philadelphia by 6

Mean:                 Philadelphia by 4

Bias:                   Philadelphia by 2

 

Vegas:                Philadelphia by 0 to 2

Ov/Un:               42.5 to 43

 

100 Sims:           Philadelphia 61  Dallas 39

Avg Sim Score:  Philadelphia 27  Dallas 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Philadelphia 41  Dallas 24

Outlier 1b Sim:  Dallas 34  Philadelphia 24

 

 

Miami (10-5-0) at New York Jets (9-6-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain showers, moderate wind, temperature dropping from the mid 50’s to mid 40’s

 

PiRate:                Jets by 4

Mean:                 Jets by 2

Bias:                   Jets by 1

 

Vegas:                Jets by 2 to 3   

Ov/Un:               41.5 to 42.5

 

100 Sims:           Miami 50  Jets 50

Avg Sim Score:  Miami 25  Jets 25

Outlier 1a Sim:  Miami 27  Jets 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Jets 20  Miami 12

 

 

Seattle (4-11-0) at Arizona (8-7-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in low 60’s

 

PiRate:                Arizona by 8

Mean:                  Arizona by 6

Bias:                    Arizona by 8

 

Vegas:               Arizona by 6 to 6.5

Ov/Un:               45 to 46

 

100 Sims:           Arizona 83  Seattle 17

Avg Sim Score:  Arizona 33  Seattle 23

Outlier 1a Sim:  Arizona 38  Seattle 16

Outlier 1b Sim:  Seattle 24  Arizona 20

 

 

Washington (8-7-0) at San Francisco (6-9-0)

Time:           4:15PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Showers possible, light wind, temperature in the mid 50’s

                    

PiRate:                Washington by 1

Mean:                  Washington by 1

Bias:                    Tossup

 

Vegas:               San Francisco by 3

Ov/Un:               37 to 37.5

 

100 Sims:           San Francisco 56  Washington 44

Avg Sim Score:  San Francisco 23  Washington 21

Outlier 1a Sim:  San Francisco 27  Washington 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Washington 21  San Francisco 13

 

 

Denver (8-7-0) at San Diego (7-8-0)

Time:           8:15PM EST

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature falling from mid to low 60’s

 

PiRate:                San Diego by 10

Mean:                  San Diego by   9

Bias:                    San Diego by   6

 

Vegas:                San Diego by 7.5 to 9.5

Ov/Un:               50 to 51

 

100 Sims:           San Diego 59  Denver 41

Avg Sim Score:  San Diego 34  Denver 30

Outlier 1a Sim:  San Diego 51  Denver 27

Outlier 1b Sim:  Denver 45  San Diego 31

December 31, 2007

PiRate Look at the Bowls–January 1 through January 6

 

New Year’s Bowl Game Match-ups (1/1-1/6)

Disclaimer: I am giving advice on pointspreads totally as an act of fun.  I do not personally wager money on these games, and I do not advocate you doing so either.  It’s just a game like Monopoly to me.

Here it is New Year’s Eve as this is written, and I still have yet to spend one minute watching or listening to any of the bowls so far.  Who would have thought that the top game in the holiday season would be a Saturday night contest between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants?  The next most important games in this time were the New Orleans Saints and Chicago Bears, the Washington Redskins and the Dallas Cowboys, the Denver Broncos and the Minnesota Vikings, and the Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans.  These games actually had something on the line, as these teams were fighting to make history or the playoffs.

To the contrary, these bowls have been meaningless to me and most of the country, since they don’t contribute to the national title.  Looking at traffic to this site, it appears more people are interested in the computer simulated playoffs than the actual bowl breakdowns, so I have reduced the coverage of these games.

As I previously stated, if the bowls were used for NCAA playoffs, the Cotton Bowl might have an important quarterfinal round game featuring the eventual National Champion instead of a meaningless game that won’t draw many viewers nor return much bang for their sponsor’s buck.  What if LSU and Southern Cal played in the Cotton Bowl instead of Arkansas and Missouri?  I dare say FOX Sports would get a much higher rating for the game, and AT&T, as the sponsor, would receive a bigger return on their investment.

Here is a brief breakdown of the third wave of bowls.  These used to be the most exciting football games of the year when several of them played a part in the national title decision.  Under the old system, Ohio State would have been playing Southern Cal in the Rose Bowl; LSU would have played Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl (using the theory that LSU played an undefeated Wyoming team in January 1968); Kansas and Virginia Tech would still have played in the Orange Bowl, but with the game having national title repercussions; Oklahoma would have played Arizona State in the Fiesta Bowl; and the Cotton Bowl would have featured Texas against Missouri.  At least three bowls would have played a part in the championship picture, and if LSU, Ohio State, and Kansas would have lost, it would have thrown the door open for a host of teams to claim a part of a national title.  Now, we have the winner of one game and one game only.  It will be played six days after New Year’s Day, so the January 1st bowl games are now a waste of time; there’s no reason to watch unless your favorite team is playing.

The one prediction I can make with absolute certitude is that I won’t spend a minute watching or listening to these games. 

Point spreads and totals are those listed as of 9:00 AM ET Monday, December 31, 2007

Times given are Eastern Standard Tome Zone

Tuesday, January 1-11:00 AM ESPN

Outback Bowl-Tampa

Tennessee 9-4  vs.  Wisconsin 9-3

Vegas:  Tennessee by 1½

PiRate: Tennessee by 2

Mean: Tennessee 30  Wisconsin 28

Tennessee has some distractions heading into this game with offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe now the head coach at Duke.

Wisconsin has defensive liabilities that Tennessee can exploit, but the Badgers’ offense is strong enough to make this game a shootout.  Give the Vols an ever so slight edge here, but it’s almost a 50-50 proposition.

Predicted Score: Tennessee 27  Wisconsin 25

Tuesday, January 1-11:30 AM Fox

Cotton Bowl-Dallas

Arkansas 8-4 vs. Missouri 11-2

Vegas: Missouri by 3½

PiRate: Missouri by 2

Mean: Missouri 37  Arkansas 30

Oh how this bowl has fallen from the penthouse to near the outhouse.  This bowl frequently hosted the eventual national champion in past years; now, an invitation to this bowl gets your coach on the hot seat.  Arkansas coach Houston Nutt fled for Ole Miss, after his Hogs were delegated to this now lower-tier bowl.

Chase Daniel versus Darren McFadden gives this game some appeal, but the overwhelming populace will be watching the Tournament of Roses Parade instead of this game.

For those that do tune this one in on their sets, they should see an exciting, high-scoring game.  Give Daniel the slight edge, unless the turf is a sloppy mess.

Predicted Score: Missouri 35  Arkansas 33

Tuesday, January 1-1:00 PM  CBS

Gator Bowl-Jacksonville

Texas Tech 8-4  vs. Virginia 9-3

Vegas: Texas Tech by 6

PiRate: Tossup

Mean: Texas Tech 29  Virginia 27

Here’s another bowl game that has disappeared from the national limelight.  This game used to feature top 10 teams.  Now, it gets middle of the pack teams from their conferences.  Ho hum!  Texas Tech will pass the ball 50-60 times, many of which are nothing more than running plays that begin with a forward toss behind the line of scrimmage.  It’s not much different from the pitchout plays of the pass.

Virginia’s defense has the potential to slow down the Red Raiders, but they won’t be able to stop it.  The Cavs should be able to score just as easily against Tech’s defense, so expect this one to be decided on a big play in the second half, or even go to overtime.

Predicted Score: 34-34 Tie heading to overtime

Tuesday, January 1-1:00 PM  ABC

Capital One Bowl-Orlando

Florida 9-3  vs.  Michigan 8-4

Vegas:  Florida by 10½  

PiRate: Florida by 21

Mean:  Florida 33  Michigan 23

The Heisman Trophy winner gets to play his first game since he received the trophy.  Michigan gets to pay its first game since the 1990’s without Lloyd Carr.  This one should be a dud.  Even if it’s close, there’s no reason to watch unless you are a Gator or Wolverine at heart.  The bigger news in this one is the impending lawsuit between new coach Rich Rodriguez, and his old school.  That will be an interesting event in the coming year.

Predicted Score: Florida 38  Michigan 17

Tuesday, January 1-5:00 PM

Rose Bowl-Pasadena, CA

Southern California 10-2  vs.  Illinois 9-3

Vegas: USC by 13½  

PiRate: USC by 18

Mean: USC 29  Illinois 21

The Grandaddy of them all won’t be much of a battle.  Southern Cal is probably the best team in the nation, even though they won’t have a chance to play for that title.  Yes, they lost twice this year.  So did LSU.  Yes, they fell to Stanford.  LSU lost to Kentucky and Arkansas.  Oh, by the way, Ohio State lost to Illinois, and that’s who the Trojans get to wallop in Pasadena.  In my opinion, a Trojan blowout victory coupled with a small win by either team in the National Championship Game, might give the AP voters reason to think before they cast their final ballots.

Predicted Score: USC 35  Illinois 17

Tuesday, January 1-8:30 PM

Sugar Bowl-New Orleans

Georgia 10-2  vs.  Hawaii 12-0

Vegas: Georgia by 8

PiRate: Georgia by 9

Mean: Georgia 34  Hawaii 28

This will be a game where you will see a future star quarterback in the NFL.  Yes, I’m talking about Matthew Stafford of Georgia.  Stafford is quite underrated, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him outshine Colt Brennan in this game.  Georgia will also be able to control the line of scrimmage when they run the ball, and that will spell doom for the undefeated Warriors.  Wyoming once came to this bowl at 10-0 to face 7-3 LSU.  They had star back Jim Kiick among others.  They gave the Tigers all they could handle-for one half.  LSU dominated in the final 30 minutes and won.  I expect much of the same thing here.

Predicted Score: Georgia 30  Hawaii 21

Wednesday, January 2-8:30 PM  Fox

Fiesta Bowl-Tempe, AZ

Oklahoma 11-2  vs.  West Virginia 10-2

Vegas: Oklahoma by 7½  

PiRate: Oklahoma by 6

Mean: Oklahoma 31  West Virginia 29

This might have been the National Championship Game if Oklahoma had not been upset by Texas Tech and West Virginia had not lost to Pittsburgh in their regular season finale.  Now, this game is overshadowed by the lawsuit filed by the West Virginia against former coach Rich Rodriguez.  Maybe Court TV’s ratings of this trial would be better viewing material than this game.  I don’t like these bowl games being played after New Year’s Day (unless New Year’s Day is a Sunday).  On January 2, the holidays are over, and it’s time to concentrate on the bigger game-the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primaries.

Predicted Score: Oklahoma 28  West Virginia 22

Thursday, January 3-8:30 PM  Fox

Orange Bowl-Miami

Virginia Tech 11-2  vs.  Kansas 11-1

Vegas: Virginia Tech by 3

PiRate: Virginia Tech by 2

Mean: Virginia Tech 27  Kansas 26  

Forget this game!  This is Iowa Caucus night, and that’s the big game that matters on this day.  My picks for the big game are John Edwards and Mitt Romney.  I expect Romney to come from behind with a late touchdown in the fourth quarter due to Mike Huckabee’s second half fumbles.  I expect Edwards to pick up some blocking (from those candidates who fail to receive 15% support) to make and end run and edge Obama and Clinton.

As for the game, I may not know who won until the 2008 football preview magazines hit the stands in the spring.

Predicted Score: Virginia Tech 24  Kansas 22

Saturday, January 5-12:00 PM  ESPN2

International Bowl-Toronto

Ball State 7-5  vs.  Rutgers 7-5

Vegas: Rutgers by 10

PiRate: Rutgers by 12

Mean: Rutgers 32  Ball State 24  

Is this really a bowl?  It’s from Canada.  Maybe this is a hockey match.  It shouldn’t be played if it’s really a football game.  Who gives a flip by January 5? They should have played back around December 20 considering the teams involved.  Saturday is the first round of NFL Playoffs.  You here that, you NCAA dolts?  The playoffs!  That means all the games mean something.  That means multi-millions will be putting everything else aside to tune in to see the first pieces of the Super Bowl puzzle.  Your bowl game wouldn’t generate power if it were moved to Niagara Falls.

Predicted Score: Rutgers 33  Ball State 21

Sunday, January 6-8:00 PM  ESPN

GMAC Bowl-Mobile, AL

Tulsa 9-4  vs.  Bowling Green 8-4

Vegas: Tulsa by 4½

PiRate: Tulsa by 4

Mean: Tulsa 36  Bowling Green 33  

I could have copy and pasted the above description from that Canadian bowl for this one.  This game would have been just as meaningless if it had been played before all the others.  You get more NFL playoffs on Sunday, and the folks in Mobile will spurn this game for the actual one that matters-the Senior Bowl.

Predicted Score: Tulsa 35  Bowling Green 31

This Week’s “Picks”

It seems to be working every week since I instituted this strategy in mid-November, so I will continue to employ the same formula for picking games during the bowls.  So far, these picks are 6-3 against the spread through bowl games of December 30.

Where the PiRates and Mean both fall on the same side of the spread and the difference is more than 2.5 points, that game will be picked against the spread.  When they both agree on the winner, and the line is 10 points or less, that game will be picked on the money line.  There will be no totals or teasers picked. 

Straight Plays Against the Spread

# 1:  Virginia +6 vs. Texas Tech

Money Line Picks

# 2:  Tennessee -120 vs. Wisconsin

# 3:  Missouri -160 vs. Arkansas

# 4:  Georgia -280 vs. Hawaii

# 5:  Oklahoma -270 vs. West Virginia

# 6:  Virginia Tech -150 vs. Kansas

# 7:  Rutgers -380 vs. Ball State

# 8:  Tulsa -195 vs. Bowling Green

UP NEXT: THE ONLY POST-SEASON COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME THAT MATTERS-AN IN-DEPTH PREVIEW OF LSU-OHIO STATE. 

Look for the preview to appear here Friday, January 4.

December 27, 2007

PiRate Ratings Look at the Bowls (Champs Sports through Insight)

 

Middle Bowl Game Match-ups (12/28-12/31)

Disclaimer: I am giving advice on pointspreads totally as an act of fun.  I do not personally wager money on these games, and I do not advocate you doing so either.  It’s just a game like Monopoly to me.

I have yet to spend one minute watching or listening to any of the bowls so far, and I must say I’m not regretting it one bit.  These bowls are meaningless to me and most of the country, since they don’t contribute to the national title.  Looking at traffic to this site, it appears more people are interested in the computer simulated playoffs than the actual bowl breakdowns, so I am going to reduce the coverage of these games.

As I previously stated, if the bowls were used for NCAA playoffs, the Cotton Bowl might have an important quarterfinal round game featuring the eventual National Champion instead of a meaningless game that won’t draw many viewers nor return much bang for their sponsor’s buck.  What if LSU and Southern Cal played in the Cotton Bowl instead of Arkansas and Missouri?  I dare say FOX Sports would get a much higher rating for the game, and AT&T, as the sponsor, would receive a bigger return on their investment.

Here is a brief breakdown of the second wave of bowls.  The one prediction I can make with absolute certitude is that I won’t spend a minute watching or listening to these games.  I’ll have been reading an interesting trio of books and listening to shortwave radio over the holidays.  One of the books I am currently reading is, The Lincoln Highway: The Great American Road Trip by Michael Wallis and Michael Williamson. If you like traveling old roads that aren’t boring, straight interstate slabs, check out this book as well as Wallis’s and others’ books about Route 66.  I have traveled large parts of both highways, and these trips have always been comforting, interesting, and beneficial to many mom and pop businesses that are struggling to survive.  One of these days, I am going to drive the entire distance of both highways; maybe start in New York and drive to San Francisco on the Lincoln Highway and then return via Los Angeles to Chicago on Route 66.

Point spreads and totals are those listed as of 11:00 AM ET Thursday, December 27, 2007

Times given are Eastern Standard Tome Zone

Friday, December 28-5:00 PM ESPN

Champs Sports Bowl-Orlando

Boston College 10-3  vs.  Michigan State 7-5

Vegas:  B.C. by 4

PiRate: Tossup

Mean: B.C. 30  Mich. St. 26

At first look, this appears to be a mismatch, but Boston College limped home in November, while Michigan State was an improving team.  Wins over Purdue and Penn State proves the Spartans can compete and even win this game.

Predicted Score: 24-24 going to OT

Friday, December 28-8:00 PM NFL Network

Texas Bowl-Houston

Houston 8-4  vs. T C U  7-5

Vegas: TCU by 6½

PiRate: TCU by 8

Mean: TCU 31  Houston 25

Most people cannot pick up this game up on television, and I’m not sure many outside of the Lone Star State will desire to go to an establishment to tune it in.  This old rivalry of former Southwest Conference teams is the microcosm for the current bowl apathy spreading across the nation.  Who cares?  Maybe by January 5, I will have looked online to see who won this game.  Then again, I may not know until next summer when the football preview magazines hit the stands.

Predicted Score: TCU 24  Houston 16

Friday, December 28-8:30 PM ESPN

Emerald Bowl-San Francisco

Maryland 6-6  vs.  Oregon State 8-4

Vegas: Oregon State by 5

PiRate: Oregon State by 9

Mean: Oregon State 27  Maryland 22

Maryland must travel from one coast to the other and play a Pac-10 team in Pac-10 territory.  That should help Oregon State by a grand total of two points in this game.  The Beavers are stronger on both sides of the ball.

Predicted Score: Oregon State 33  Maryland 24

Saturday, December 29-1:00 PM  ESPN

Meineke Car Care Bowl-Charlotte, NC

Wake Forest 8-4  vs.  Connecticut 9-3

Vegas:  Wake Forest by 2½

PiRate: Wake Forest by 8

Mean:  Wake Forest 24  Connecticut 24 to OT

Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe didn’t jump ship after being courted by more than one school.  His squad should reward him with a bowl win.  UConn expected to be playing in a New Year’s Day Bowl, and I don’t think they will put out a great effort in this game.

Predicted Score: Wake Forest 27  Connecticut 19

Saturday, December 29-4:30 PM  ESPN

Liberty Bowl-Memphis

Mississippi State 7-5  vs.  Central Florida 10-3

Vegas: Central Florida by 2½

PiRate: Mississippi St. by 1

Mean: Central Florida 30  Mississippi St. 28

Mississippi State’s defense should be strong enough to hold down the strong UCF ground game, but I expect UCF to pass for more yards than normal.  The Bulldogs should match them point-for-point, and this game should go down to the wire.

Predicted Score: Mississippi State 24  Central Florida 23

Saturday, December 29-8:00 PM  ESPN

Alamo Bowl-San Antonio

Texas A&M 7-5  vs.  Penn State 8-4

Vegas: Penn State by 4½

PiRate: Penn State by 1

Mean: Penn State 29  Texas A&M 24

Both teams have experienced off-the-field problems this year, and both would probably like to just get this game over with as quickly as possible.  A&M’s defense has a few holes, and I expect the octogenarian, bespectacled coach to find out how to exploit those liabilities deep in the final stanza.  The Lions will meow rather than roar in this one, but it should be enough to escape with a win.

Predicted Score: Penn State 17  Texas A&M 16

Sunday, December 30-8:00 PM  ESPN

Independence Bowl-Shrevport, LA

Colorado 6-6  vs.  Alabama 6-6

Vegas: Alabama by 3½

PiRate: Alabama by 6

Mean: Alabama 27  Colorado 25

Why does this game even have to be played?  If Bear Bryant was still alive and coaching, he would never have accepted this bowl bid.  Former Buffalo coach Eddie Crowder may have concurred with the man in the houndstooth hat.

Colorado probably cares more about this game since they were just 2-10 last year, but I think the Tide is clearly more talented.  Nick Saban will not let his charges take this game for granted, so I’m, taking the Tide.

Predicted Score: Alabama 27  Colorado 21

Monday, December 31-12:30 PM  ESPN

Armed Forces Bowl-Ft. Worth, TX

California 6-6  vs.  Air Force 9-3

Vegas: California by 3½

PiRate: Tossup

Mean: Air Force 27  California 26  

My gut instinct in this one is that Air Force will win this one in a surprising manner.  Cal’s November nosedive doesn’t bode well here.  Air Force improved every week, and after a month of practices, the spread option offense should be explosive.  The PiRates say Cal will exploit AFA through the air and score just as many points.  Look for both teams to top 400 yards.

Predicted Score: Air Force 31  California 31 going to OT

Monday, December 31-2:00 PM  CBS

Sun Bowl-El Paso, TX

Oregon 8-4  vs.  South Florida 9-3

Vegas: South Florida by 5½

PiRate: South Florida by 4

Mean: South Florida 31  Oregon 29  

Here’s another bowl where both teams thought they were headed to BCS Bowls midway through the season.  Oregon’s losing Dennis Dixon is comparable to the 1927 Yankees losing Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Earl Combs, and Waite Hoyt.  There’s no quack left in the Ducks.

I look for Oregon coach Mike Bellotti to find a way to squeeze out just enough offense to make this game close throughout.  Still, I’ll go with the Eastern team in green to win this one.

Predicted Score: South Florida 24  Oregon 20

Monday, December 31-2:00 PM  ESPN2

Humanitarian Bowl-Boise, ID

Fresno State 8-4  vs.  Georgia Tech 7-5

Vegas: Georgia Tech by 6

PiRate: Georgia Tech by 4

Mean: Georgia Tech 28  Fresno St. 24  

What better way to say this game isn’t worth watching than to say the most exciting reason to watch is to see if snow covers the blue field?

Georgia Tech is one of a bevy of schools to dump their coach after having a winning season.  If Paul Johnson were already coaching, and the Techsters were already running the triple option, this game might be a little fun.  Look for a dull, colorless contest-unless you consider the blue field colorful.

Predicted Score: Georgia Tech 21  Fresno St. 17

Monday, December 31-4:00 PM  ESPN

Music City Bowl-Nashville

Florida State 7-5  vs.  Kentucky 7-5

Vegas: Kentucky by 10

PiRate: Kentucky by 10

Mean: Kentucky 29  Florida St. 27   

(note: Mean cannot factor FSU’s loss of 36 players for this game, but PiRate rating does factor in the personnel loss)

Shame on Florida State!  They knew about the cheating problem months ago.  They should have removed themselves from bowl contention.  This bowl game is ruined now because Kentucky will be playing against a team that cannot even field a two-deep.  Even if FSU plays above their head and pulls off a couple of surprise plays, they don’t belong in a bowl.  Well, at least all the Kentucky fans who are trying to forget they are a basketball school will paint Nashville blue on New Year’s Eve.

Predicted Score:  Kentucky 30  Florida State 20

Monday, December 31-7:30 PM  ESPN

Chick-Fil-A Bowl-Atlanta

Auburn 8-4  vs.  Clemson 9-3

Vegas: Clemson by 3

PiRate: Clemson by 5

Mean: Clemson 25  Auburn 22  

This is an old rivalry game.  The two schools played each other several times between the 1930’s and early 1970’s.  Clemson dominated in the WWII era, and Auburn dominated from there on.  This would be a great game if it was played in September, but it doesn’t have much appeal on New Year’s Eve night.

Clemson is one of the best teams not playing in a BCS bowl, and Auburn is inconsistent.  Go with the ACC Tigers in this one.

Predicted Score: Clemson 24  Auburn 19

Monday, December 31-5:30 PM  NFL Network

Insight Bowl-Phoenix

Indiana 7-5  vs.  Oklahoma State 6-6

Vegas: Oklahoma St. by 4

PiRate: Oklahoma St. by 6

Mean: Oklahoma St. 34  Indiana 28  

Poor Indiana!  They finally earn a bowl bid for the first time in over a dozen years, and nobody will watch them.  This New Year’s Eve night game is on the covert NFL Network.  The only people watching this game will be folks already loose in bars, and they won’t remember seeing the game. 

What I can say about Oklahoma State is that they are coached by a man who is 40 and who can take criticism as well as donations from T. Boone Pickens and Garth Brooks.

Predicted Score: Oklahoma St. 34  Indiana 28

This Week’s “Picks”

It seems to be working every week since I instituted this strategy in mid-November, so I will continue to employ the same formula for picking games during the bowls.  So far, these picks are 4-1 against the spread through bowl games of December 26.

Where the PiRates and Mean both fall on the same side of the spread and the difference is more than 2.5 points, that game will be picked against the spread.  When they both agree on the winner, and the line is 10 points or less, that game will be picked on the money line.  There will be no totals or teasers picked. 

Straight Plays Against the Spread

# 1:  Air Force +3½ vs. California

Money Line Picks

# 2: TCU -210 vs. Houston

# 3: Oregon State -200 vs. Maryland

# 4: Penn State -205 vs. Texas A&M

# 5: Alabama -155 vs. Colorado

# 6: South Florida -220 vs. Oregon

# 7:  Georgia Tech -220 vs. Fresno State

# 8:  Clemson -125 vs. Auburn

# 9:  Oklahoma State -170 vs. Indiana

December 18, 2007

PiRate Early Bowl Previews (Poinsettia through Holiday)

Early Bowl Game Match-ups

Disclaimer: I am giving advice on pointspreads totally as an act of fun.  I do not personally wager money on these games, and I do not advocate you doing so either.  It’s just a game like Monopoly to me.

It’s time for the not-so-exciting bowl season.  Over the next two weeks, there will be more than two dozen games that mean little or nothing to all but the fans of the particular schools playing in the games.  Because “NCAA playoffs would hurt the bowls,” you get the pleasure (factitiously) of getting Alabama and Colorado face off in a bowl.  Neither team has a winning record.  The Cotton Bowl, which has seen numerous national champions appear in Dallas over the years, gets a battle of runner-ups who will not matter in the final championship picture.  If the bowls were used for the playoffs, the Cotton Bowl might have an important quarterfinal round game featuring the eventual National Champion.  What if LSU and Southern Cal played in the Cotton Bowl instead of Arkansas and Missouri?  I dare say FOX Sports would get a much higher rating for the game, and AT&T, as the sponsor, would receive a bigger return on their investment.

Here is a breakdown of these early bowls.  The one prediction I can make with absolute certitude is that I won’t spend a minute watching or listening to these games.  I’ll be reading an interesting trio of books and listening to shortwave radio over the holidays.  

Point spreads and totals are those listed as of 10:00 AM ET Monday, December 17, 2007

Times given are Eastern Standard Tome Zone

Thursday, December 20-9:00 PM ESPN

Poinsettia Bowl-San Diego

Utah 8-4  vs.  Navy 8-4

Vegas: Utah by 8   

PiRate: Utah by 18

Mean: Utah 34  Navy 24

Utah run offense vs. Navy run defense: Utah should be able to run all day against the Midshipmen rush defense.  175-200 yards

Utah pass offense vs. Navy pass defense: Utah should enjoy one of their best if not their best passing games of the season.  65-70% completions for 200-250 yards

Navy run offense vs. Utah run defense: Navy will not rush for their average against the Utes.  250-275 yards

Navy pass offense vs. Utah pass defense: Navy will top 100 yards passing in this game because they will be forced to pass more than they normally do.  50-55% completions for 125-150 yards

Special Teams: Navy has a slight advantage here, but both teams are sound in special teams play.

Intangibles: Navy coach Paul Johnson has fled to Georgia Tech, and this will be the first game for new coach Ken Niumatalolo.  Navy must travel more than 2,700 miles across three time zones (not as important during the bowls because they will have time to acclimate to the opposite coast and long flight).

Predicted Score: Utah 35  Navy 17

Friday, December 21-8:00 PM ESPN2

New Orleans Bowl

Memphis  7-5  vs.  Florida Atlantic  7-5

Vegas: Florida Atlantic by 3

PiRate: Florida Atlantic by 8

Mean: Florida Atlantic 34  Memphis 29

Memphis run offense vs. FAU run defense: Memphis should have a typical to slightly better than average night running the ball.  150-175 yards

Memphis pass offense vs. FAU pass defense: The Tigers should exceed their average:  55-60% completions for 325 to 350 yards

FAU run offense vs. Memphis run defense: Memphis has trouble stopping the run, and FAU should continue that trend.  150-175 yards

FAU pass offense vs. Memphis pass defense: FAU should enjoy a typical night through the air.  55-60% completions for 275-300 yards

Special Teams: Neither team is special here.  The game shouldn’t be decided here unless someone fumbles a return.

Intangibles: Both teams come into this bowl playing their best ball.  FAU finished the season on a roll winning four of six including a title-clinching victory at Troy.  Memphis won five of their last six games after it appeared as though Coach Tommy West was going to lose his job.  Memphis lost at home to Middle Tennessee by two touchdowns, while FAU beat them by 13 points.

Predicted Score:  Florida Atlantic 31  Memphis 23

Saturday, December 22-1:00 PM ESPN2

Papa John’s Bowl-Birmingham, AL

Cincinnati  9-3  vs.  Southern Mississippi  7-5

Vegas: Cincinnati by 11

PiRate: Cincinnati by 20

Mean: Cincinnati 35  Southern Miss. 19

Cincinnati run offense vs. Southern Miss. run defense: Cincinnati should run for a little less than their average.  Southern Miss., while not a great defender against the run should pick up a couple of sacks to lower the rushing total.  125-150 yards

Cincinnati pass offense vs. Southern Miss. pass defense: Cincinnati should top their passing average, possibly by quite a bit.  65-70% completions for 325-350 yards

Southern Miss. run offense vs. Cincinnati run defense: Southern Miss. will finish with fewer than their average rushing yards.  Cincinnati will pick up multiple quarterback sacks to further lower this number.  100-125 yards

Southern Miss. pass offense vs. Cincinnati pass defense: Southern Miss should enjoy one of their better passing performances of the season, but they will be forced to pass the ball 5-10 plays more than normal.  55-60% completions for 225-250 yards

Special Teams: Cincinnati has a slight advantage, but Southern Miss. is quite strong in this department.  Excellent punt units should force many possessions to begin inside the offensive 20 yard lines.

Intangibles: Southern Miss coach Jeff Bower has been let go, and the Eagles have hired Oklahoma State offensive coordinator Larry Fedora as his replacement.  Bower will coach this game.  Southern Miss fans have not been buying tickets to this game in large numbers, while Cincinnati is close to selling out their allotment.  Expect a Bearcat domination in the stands.

Cincinnati felt it was snubbed by the Meineke Car Care Bowl, and the players could either come out with a chip on their shoulders or not show up ready to play due to indifference.  I predict Cinti will be ready to make a statement, and this game will be a mismatch.

Predicted Score: Cincinnati 34  Southern Mississippi 14

Saturday, December 22-4:30 PM  ESPN

New Mexico Bowl-Albuquerque

New Mexico 8-4  vs. Nevada  6-6

Vegas:  New Mexico by 3

PiRate: New Mexico by 5

Mean:  New Mexico 31  Nevada 26

New Mexico run offense vs. Nevada run defense: Nevada has a weak run defense, but New Mexico isn’t the type of team that can exploit that weakness for much.  150-175 yards

New Mexico pass offense vs. Nevada pass defense: Nevada should meet or slightly exceed their average.  60-65% completions for 225-250 yards

Nevada run offense vs. New Mexico run defense: Nevada has one of the better running attacks in the nation, but I expect the Wolfpack to fail to reach their norm in this game.  175-200 yards

Nevada pass offense vs. New Mexico pass defense: Nevada’s pistol offense hasn’t fired as accurately this season as they did in 2005 and 2006.  New Mexico has a better than average pass defense.  50-55% completions for 225-250 yards

Special Teams: edge to New Mexico.  The Lobos punting game is superior to Nevada on both sides.  The difference is enough to move the spread one point in New Mexico’s favor.

Intangibles:  New Mexico gets three points for home field advantage.  However, New Mexico is 0-5 in bowl games in the last 15 years.

Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick is a freshman who became the starter in the middle of the season.  The extra four weeks of practice should be key in this game, because Kaepernick has the potential to be a better quarterback than Colt Brennan by the time he leaves Reno.

Predicted Score: New Mexico 31  Nevada 26

Saturday, December 22-8:00 PM  ESPN

Las Vegas Bowl

U C L A  6-6  vs. Brigham Young  10-2

Vegas: B Y U by 6

PiRate: U C L A by 1

Mean: B Y U 26  UCLA 22

UCLA run offense vs. BYU run defense: UCLA’s running game was better with quarterback Ben Olson in the game, solely because defenses couldn’t bring an extra player to the line of scrimmage.  Even with Olson ready for the bowl, the Bruins will find the going tough against BYU’s defense.  Throw in a sack or two, and UCLA should have a tough time.  75-100 yards

UCLA pass offense vs. BYU pass defense: If Olson plays the entire game, the Bruins can easily top the passing yardage they produced against BYU in September.  If Olson cannot go the distance or plays well below his capacity due to pain, then UCLA could be held down to where they were the first time they played BYU.  55-60% completions for 175-200 yards.

BYU run offense vs. UCLA run defense: BYU had a difficult time moving the ball against the Bruins run defense in the September game.  I look for the Cougars to perform more efficiently this time around, but they won’t break loose for a big night.  125-150 yards

BYU pass offense vs. UCLA pass defense:  BYU threw it 53 times and picked up 391 passing yards in the earlier game, but I don’t foresee a repeat-mainly due to an improved running performance 55-60% completions for 250-275 yards

Special Teams: UCLA has the advantage here.  The Bruins are strong in all special teams play and can create points with these units.

Intangibles: UCLA coach Karl Dorrell was fired and will not coach in the bowl.  Interim Coach DeWayne Walker will handle the head coaching duties.  Rick Neuheisel, Norm Chow, or someone else could be named head coach before game night, creating diversions amongst the players.

Whenever two college teams play for the second time in the same season, the loser usually finishes with a better score.  BYU lost 27-17 in September, so it is highly likely that they will either win or lose by less than 10 points.

BYU finished the season on a nine-game winning streak, whereas UCLA struggled to finish the season.  Sometimes, a team that struggled to finish the regular season regroups in the postseason and plays their best game of the year.

Predicted Score: UCLA 24  BYU 23

Sunday, December 23-8:00 PM  ESPN

Hawaii Bowl-Honolulu

Boise State  10-2  vs. East Carolina  7-5

Vegas: Boise State by 10½

PiRate: Boise State by 17

Mean: Boise State 37  East Carolina 25

Boise State run offense vs. East Carolina run defense: Ian Johnson will get his yards, but I suspect ECU will hold Boise under their average.  150-175 yards

Boise State pass offense vs. East Carolina pass defense: Taylor Tharp might have the best performance of the bowl season.  ECU may not mount much of a threat against the Bronco air game.  65-70% completions for 325-350 yards

East Carolina run offense vs. Boise State run defense: Chris Johnson is one of the best running backs you’ve never heard of, but Boise has a tough run defense.  Look for a little less than normal for the Pirates.  150-175 yards

East Carolina pass offense vs. Boise State pass defense: Expect a typical game performance by ECU; neither team is exceptional in this head-to-head battle.  55-60% completions for 200-225 yards

Special Teams: Boise State has a considerable advantage here.  With every exchange of punts, BSU should gain close to 10 yards.  Five punts by both teams could mean a 50-yard advantage, worth one score.

Intangibles: Boise State will be playing their second consecutive game in Honolulu.  The players thought they were going to beat Hawaii and steal their Sugar Bowl bid.  Methinks some of the players will not be focused.  ECU is happy to be there, and I expect them to perform better than expected.  The PiRates officially pick against the Pirates here, but my gut instinct is that ECU will be ready to play and make this game a true battle.

Wednesday, December 26-7:30 PM  ESPN

Motor City Bowl-Detroit

Purdue  7-5  vs. Central Michigan  8-5

Vegas: Purdue by 8½

PiRate: Purdue by 5

Mean: Purdue 35  Central Michigan 30

Purdue run offense vs. Central Michigan run defense: Purdue didn’t run the ball with much authority this year, but they should find some success against the Chippewas.  150-175 yards

Purdue pass offense vs. Central Michigan pass defense: Curtis Painter didn’t have a great year, but he should have a decent game in this one.  CMU isn’t overly strong against the pass.  55-60% completions for 275-300 yards

Central Michigan run offense vs. Purdue run defense: CMU should find limited success against the Boilermaker run defense.  Quarterback Dan Lafevour can gain yards on the ground as well as through the air.  125-150 yards

Central Michigan pass offense vs. Purdue pass defense: I expect Lafevour to have a great game and give his underdog team a chance to win the game.  Purdue had trouble several times this year against pedestrian quarterbacks.  60-65% completions for 275-300 yards

Special Teams: Purdue has a considerable advantage here and can change the game on one big play.

Intangibles: Some of Purdue’s players would rather be home for the holidays rather than play in this game.  CMU is happy to be here, and they will be out for blood. 

There are rumblings in Indiana by Purdue fans who would like to see Coach Joe Tiller replaced.  A bad performance in this game, ala Glen Mason’s Minnesota team last year in their bowl, could be the final nail in the coffin.

Predicted Score: Purdue 35  CMU 30

Thursday, December 27-8:00 PM  ESPN

Holiday Bowl-San Diego

Arizona State  10-2  vs. Texas  9-3

Vegas: Texas by 2½

PiRate: Arizona State by 2

Mean: Arizona State 30  Texas 27   

Arizona State run offense vs. Texas run defense: ASU doesn’t butter its bread with the running attack. Texas’s outstanding run defense will hold the Sun Devils in double digits, but it may not be enough for the ‘Horns to hook’em.

Arizona State pass offense vs. Texas pass defense: If a bowl quarterback finishes with better stats than Boise’s Tharp, it may be ASU’s Rudy Carpenter.  I look for Carpenter to shred the Longhorn secondary.  60-65% completions for 300-325 yards

Texas run offense vs. Arizona State run defense: Jamaal Charles may run for 100 yards, but I expect Texas to be held beneath their average in this one.  150-175 yards

Texas pass offense vs. Arizona State pass defense: Colt McCoy should top 200 yards passing in this game, but I think his percentages will be off a little.  ASU is decent against the pass.  55-60% completions for 200-225 yards

Special Teams: This is basically a wash, as neither team is a power in the special team’s games.

Intangibles: This is the first bowl game of the season where both teams belong to be in a bowl game.  I expect a close, hard-fought game.  Neither team has a significant advantage here.

Predicted Score: Arizona State 30  Texas 28

 

 

This Week’s “Picks”

 

It worked the last two weeks of the regular season, so I will continue to employ the same formula for picking games during the bowls.  So, where the PiRates and Mean both fall on the same side of the spread and the difference is more than 2.5 points, that game will be picked against the spread.  When they both agree on the winner, and the line is 10 points or less, that game will be picked on the money line.  There will be no totals or teasers picked. 

 

Straight Plays Against the Spread

# 1:  Cincinnati -11 vs. Southern Mississippi

# 2:  Arizona State +2½ vs. Texas

Money Line Picks

# 3:  Utah -295 vs. Navy

# 4:  F A U -140 vs. Memphis

# 5:  New Mexico -140 vs. Nevada

# 6:  Purdue -310 vs. Central Michigan

# 7:  Arizona State +120 vs. Texas

December 3, 2007

PiRate Ratings/Final Regular Season Top 25/Bowl Schedule/NCAA Playoffs

PiRate Rating Picks from this past weekend:

Winners: 8-4  66.7%  Season:   490-173 73.9%

Vs. Spread: 7-4-0 63.6%  Season: 109-132-3 45.2%

PiRate Top 25-Final Regular Season

No.

Team

Won

Lost

PiRate

1

Southern Cal

10

2

127

2

Oklahoma

11

2

126

3

Florida

9

3

126

4

Ohio State

11

1

123

5

Virginia Tech

11

2

122

6

West Virginia

10

2

122

7

L S U

11

2

120

8

Missouri

11

2

120

9

Kansas

11

1

120

10

Georgia

10

2

118

11

Arkansas

8

4

118

12

Oregon State

8

4

117

13

South Florida

9

3

117

14

Clemson

9

3

116

15

Cincinnati

9

3

115

16

Arizona State

10

2

114

17

Boise State

10

2

114

18

Tennessee

9

4

114

19

Utah

8

4

113

20

Oregon 

8

4

113

21

U C L A

6

6

113

22

Illinois

9

3

112

23

Wisconsin

9

3

112

24

Brigham Young

10

2

112

25

Texas

9

3

112

PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Conference

 

Overall

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Clemson

5

3

 

9

3

410

220

116

Wake Forest

5

3

 

8

4

338

279

111

Boston College

6

2

 

10

3

372

264

110

Maryland

3

5

 

6

6

299

259

110

Florida State

4

4

 

7

5

275

263

106

North Carolina St.

3

5

 

5

7

249

339

94

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Conference

 

Overall

 

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Virginia Tech

7

1

 

11

2

381

201

122

Virginia 

6

2

 

9

3

289

222

109

Georgia Tech

4

4

 

7

5

313

231

104

Miami (FL)

2

6

 

5

7

247

312

98

North Carolina

3

5

 

4

8

254

294

97

Duke

0

8

 

1

11

215

398

86

Big East Conference

Conference

 

Overall

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

West Virginia

5

2

 

10

2

467

207

122

South Florida

4

3

 

9

3

430

248

117

Cincinnati

4

3

 

9

3

441

223

115

Rutgers

3

4

 

7

5

374

262

107

Connecticut

5

2

 

9

3

334

223

105

Louisville

3

4

 

6

6

422

377

105

Pittsburgh

3

4

 

5

7

274

291

105

Syracuse

1

6

 

2

10

197

418

87

Big 10 Conference

Conference

 

Overall

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Ohio State

7

1

 

11

1

384

128

123

Illinois

6

2

 

9

3

345

234

112

Wisconsin

5

3

 

9

3

366

280

112

Penn State

4

4

 

8

4

365

211

111

Michigan St.

3

5

 

7

5

409

322

110

Michigan

6

2

 

8

4

313

243

108

Purdue

3

5

 

7

5

395

297

102

Indiana

3

5

 

7

5

389

321

99

Iowa

4

4

 

6

6

222

225

95

Northwestern

3

5

 

6

6

310

372

93

Minnesota

0

8

 

1

11

315

440

93

Big 12 Conference

North Division

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Missouri

7

1

11

2

522

319

120

Kansas 

7

1

11

1

532

192

120

Colorado

4

4

6

6

331

353

101

Kansas St.

3

5

5

7

422

370

100

Iowa St.

2

6

3

9

218

381

95

Nebraska

2

6

5

7

401

455

95

 

 

 

 

 

South Division

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Oklahoma

6

2

11

2

564

236

126

Texas

5

3

9

3

432

295

112

Texas Tech

4

4

8

4

501

309

109

Texas A&M

4

4

7

5

346

313

108

Oklahoma St.

4

4

6

6

401

351

105

Baylor

0

8

3

9

218

411

83

Conference USA

East Division

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Central Fla.

7

1

10

3

499

362

107

East Carolina

6

2

7

5

362

357

97

Southern Miss.

5

3

7

5

330

283

95

Marshall

3

5

3

9

298

411

89

Memphis

6

2

7

5

353

375

87

U A B

1

7

2

10

235

421

78

 

 

 

West Division

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Tulsa

6

2

9

4

513

458

100

Houston

6

2

8

4

436

359

97

Tulane

3

5

4

8

293

285

87

Rice

3

5

3

9

374

515

85

S M U

0

8

1

11

340

477

83

U T E P

2

6

4

8

403

445

82

Independents

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Navy

X

X

8

4

479

438

97

Notre Dame

X

X

3

9

197

345

94

Western Ky.

X

X

7

5

398

250

78

Army

X

X

3

9

203

364

77

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Division

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Bowling Green

4

2

 

6

2

8

4

385

354

96

Ohio U

3

3

 

4

4

6

6

366

359

89

Buffalo

4

2

 

5

3

5

7

291

331

86

Miami (OH)

4

2

 

5

2

6

7

260

333

85

Temple

3

3

 

4

4

4

8

197

315

85

Akron

2

4

 

3

5

4

8

254

350

84

Kent St.

1

5

 

1

7

3

9

259

350

80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Division

 

Conference

Overall

 

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Central Mich.

4

1

 

6

1

8

5

439

466

97

Western Mich.

2

3

 

4

4

5

7

323

347

97

Ball St.

4

1

 

5

2

7

5

379

316

95

Eastern Mich.

3

3

 

3

4

4

8

290

374

87

Toledo

2

3

 

3

5

5

7

395

470

85

Northern Illinois

0

5

 

1

6

2

10

229

370

79

Mountain West Conference

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Utah

5

3

8

4

306

187

113

Brigham Young

8

0

10

2

374

225

112

T C U

4

4

7

5

319

230

108

Air Force

6

2

9

3

353

232

106

New Mexico

5

3

8

4

298

247

98

Colorado St.

2

6

3

9

304

369

93

San Diego St.

3

5

4

8

301

413

90

Wyoming

2

6

5

7

233

311

86

U N L V

1

7

2

10

218

343

85

Pacific 10 Conference

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Southern Cal

7

2

10

2

375

191

127

Oregon St.

6

3

8

4

341

280

117

Arizona St.

7

2

10

2

386

241

114

Oregon 

5

4

8

4

440

286

113

U C L A

5

4

6

6

276

272

113

Arizona

4

5

5

7

336

322

112

Washington 

2

7

4

9

380

413

107

California

3

6

6

6

338

313

106

Washington St.

3

6

5

7

308

389

104

Stanford

3

6

4

8

235

339

96

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Conference

 

Overall

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Florida

5

3

 

9

3

 

517

290

126

Georgia

6

2

 

10

2

 

383

252

118

Tennessee

6

2

 

9

4

 

434

365

114

Kentucky

3

5

 

7

5

 

440

357

110

South Carolina

3

5

 

6

6

 

313

282

108

Vanderbilt

2

6

 

5

7

 

260

271

104

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Conference

 

Overall

 

 

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

 

Pts

Opp

Rating

L S U

6

2

 

11

2

 

503

255

120

Arkansas

4

4

 

8

4

 

478

307

118

Auburn

5

3

 

8

4

 

292

200

111

Mississippi St.

4

4

 

7

5

 

269

301

106

Alabama

4

4

 

6

6

 

322

262

105

Ole Miss

0

8

 

3

9

 

241

342

97

Sunbelt Conference

Conference

 

Overall

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Troy

6

1

 

8

4

408

295

100

Fla. Atlantic

6

1

 

7

5

361

405

95

La.-Monroe

4

3

 

6

6

282

332

91

M T S U

4

3

 

5

7

308

339

86

Arkansas St.

3

4

 

5

7

291

331

85

La.-Lafayette

3

4

 

3

9

285

430

83

Fla. Int’l

1

6

 

1

11

181

469

73

North Texas

1

6

 

2

10

308

541

72

Western Athletic Conference

 

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Boise St.

7

1

 

10

2

515

238

114

Hawaii

8

0

 

12

0

552

292

111

Fresno St.

6

2

 

8

4

387

323

99

Nevada

3

4

 

5

6

386

385

96

San Jose St.

4

4

 

5

7

245

352

92

La. Tech

4

3

 

5

6

239

319

88

Utah St.

2

6

 

2

10

247

406

84

Idaho

0

8

 

1

11

258

443

79

New Mexico St.

1

7

 

4

9

312

471

78

The Bowl Schedule

Date Time Bowl City Team Team Network
12/20 9:00 PM Poinsettia San Diego Utah 8-4 Navy 8-4 ESPN
12/21 8:00 PM New Orleans New Orleans Florida Atlantic 7-5 Memphis 7-5 ESPN2
12/22 1:00 PM Papa John’s Birmingham Cincinnati 9-3 Southern Miss. 7-5 ESPN2
12/22 4:30 PM New Mexico Albuquerque Nevada 6-6 New Mexico 8-4 ESPN
12/22 8:00 PM Las Vegas Las Vegas U C L A 6-6 Brigham Young 10-2 ESPN
12/23 8:00 PM Hawaii Honolulu East Carolina 7-5 Boise State 10-2 ESPN
12/26 7:30 PM Motor City Detroit Purdue 7-5 Central Michigan 8-5 ESPN
12/27 8:00 PM Holiday San Diego Texas 9-3 Arizona St. 10-2 ESPN
12/28 5:00 PM Champs Sports Orlando Boston College 10-3 Michigan St. 7-5 ESPN
12/28 8:00 PM Texas Houston T C U 7-5 Houston 8-4 NFL
12/28 8:00 PM Emerald San Francisco Maryland 6-6 Oregon State 8-4 ESPN
12/29 1:00 PM Meineke Car Care Charlotte Connecticut 9-3 Wake Forest 8-4 ESPN
12/29 4:30 PM Liberty Memphis Central Florida 10-3 Mississippi St. 7-5 ESPN
12/29 8:00 PM Alamo San Antonio Penn State 8-4 Texas A&M 7-5 ESPN
12/30 8:00 PM Independence Shrevport Colorado 6-6 Alabama 6-6 ESPN
12/31 12:30 PM Armed Forces Ft. Worth California 6-6 Air Force 9-3 ESPN
12/31 2:00 PM Sun El Paso South Florida 9-3 Oregon 8-4 CBS
12/31 2:00 PM Humanitarian Boise Georgia Tech 7-5 Fresno St. 8-4 ESPN2
12/31 4:00 PM Music City Nashville Florida State 7-5 Kentucky 7-5 ESPN
12/31 7:30 PM Chick-fil-A Atlanta Clemson 9-3 Auburn 8-4 ESPN
12/31 8:00 PM Insight Tempe Oklahoma St. 6-6 Indiana 7-5 NFL
1/1 11:00 AM Outback Tampa Wisconsin 9-3 Tennessee 9-4 ESPN
1/1 11:30 AM Cottton Dallas Arkansas 8-4 Missouri 11-2 FOX
1/1 1:00 PM Capital One Orlando Michigan 8-4 Florida 9-3 ABC
1/1 1:00 PM Gator Jacksonville Texas Tech 8-4 Virginia 9-3 CBS
1/1 4:30 PM Rose Pasadena Illinois 9-3 Southern Cal 10-2 ABC
1/1 8:30 PM Sugar New Orleans Hawaii 12-0 Georgia 10-2 FOX
1/2 8:00 PM Fiesta Glendale West Virginia 10-2 Oklahoma 11-2 FOX
1/3 8:00 PM Orange Miami Kansas 11-1 Virginia Tech 11-2 FOX
1/5 12:00 PM International Toronto Rutgers 7-5 Ball State 7-5 ESPN2
1/6 8:00 PM GMAC Mobile Tulsa 9-4 Bowling Green 8-4 ESPN
1/7 8:00 PM National Title New Orleans L S U 11-2 Ohio State 11-1 FOX

Selection Monday: The NCAA Football Computer Simulation Pairings

For all of you who want playoffs in lieu of the BcS joke we have, here is how they would work in the PiRate system.

The PiRate system calls for a 12-team playoff.  The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC receive automatic bids.  The six highest ranked teams after that, regardless of conference affiliation are then invited as at-large participants.

The four highest ranked automatic qualifiers receive first round byes, while the other eight teams play in the opening round.  Bowls are used for all 11 games needed for a 12-team playoff.

Round One is December 8.  The Quarterfinals are December 22.  The Semifinals are January 1.  The Championship Game is January 14.

The Participants

ACC: Virginia Tech 11-2

Big East: West Virginia 10-2

Big 10: Ohio State 11-1

Big 12: Oklahoma 11-2

Pac-10: Southern California 10-2

SEC: L S U 11-2

At-Large: Georgia 10-2

At-Large: Missouri 11-2

At-Large: Kansas 11-1

At-Large: Hawaii 12-0

At-Large: Arizona St. 10-2

At-Large: Florida 9-3

Instead of the argument that LSU edged Georgia due to political factors made by certain network shirts, the argument would be between Florida, Illinois, Boston College, and Clemson.  At least these teams know they lost three games and have no right to argue like Georgia has this year.

The brainwashers try to tell the public that a playoff would destroy the bowl.  I ask you this:  How many bowls this year have any meaning or appeal to anybody other than the fans of the participating teams?  Does a bowl pitting a 7-5 team against a 6-6 team attract you to watch?  Are you just chomping at the bit to watch the Poinsettia, Armed Forces, Insight, Texas, and Independence Bowls?  Other than the LSU-Ohio State game, none of the other bowls matter.  Even the historic, Sugar, Cotton, Rose, Orange, and Fiesta Bowls have no bearing on the national championship.  There’s no need to watch these games, and when the sponsors of these bowls hear from enough fans who contact them to tell them as much, they will force a playoff.

Under the PiRate system, 11 bowls would play a deciding factor in the NCAA Championship.  The remaining bowls that currently have 6-6 and 7-5 teams would now have 8-4 and 9-3 teams instead. 

Let’s look at the pairings.

Round One-December 8

 

Gator Bowl:              #5 Georgia vs. #12 Florida

Outback Bowl:         #6 Missouri vs. #11 Arizona State

Holiday Bowl:           #7 Southern Cal vs. #10 Hawaii

Chick-fil-A Bowl:     #8 Kansas vs. #9 West Virginia

Quarterfinals-December 22

Fiesta Bowl:              #4 Oklahoma vs. Winner of Gator Bowl

Capital One Bowl:   #3 Virginia Tech vs. Winner of Outback Bowl

Cotton Bowl:             #2 L S U vs. Winner of Holiday Bowl

Rose Bowl:                #1 Ohio State vs. Winner of Chick-fil-A Bowl

Semifinals-January 1

Sugar Bowl:              Winner of Fiesta Bowl vs. Winner of Rose Bowl

Orange Bowl:           Winner of Capital One Bowl vs. Winner of Cotton Bowl

National Championship Game-January 14

New Orleans                        Winner of Sugar Bowl vs. Winner of Orange Bowl

Check back with the PiRate Ratings for the computer simulation of this championship playoff.  I will post scores and statistics for all these games, starting with round one Saturday.

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