PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 17: December 30, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
New Orleans	Carolina	10.5	11.0	10.7	50
Houston	Jacksonville	7.6	8.1	8.6	42
Green Bay	Detroit	5.2	5.9	5.8	48
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	-2.1	-1.8	-1.0	50.5
N.Y. Giants	Dallas	0.5	0.7	1.3	42.5
New England	N.Y. Jets	12.4	13.0	12.7	47.5
Buffalo	Miami	1.4	1.9	1.8	40
Minnesota	Chicago	0.8	0.9	0.0	42.5
Kansas City	Oakland	17.0	17.1	16.9	52.5
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	15.1	15.2	15.5	48
Baltimore	Cleveland	9.7	9.8	9.2	44
Washington	Philadelphia	-8.2	-8.9	-8.4	45.5
Seattle	Arizona	15.2	15.9	16.4	41
L.A. Rams	San Francisco	13.5	13.7	13.5	49
Denver	L.A. Chargers	-4.7	-5.5	-5.4	43
Tennessee	Indianapolis	-2.0	-1.4	-2.6	45

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	105.0	105.1	104.9	105.0	22.5	10-5
N. Y. Jets	95.1	94.6	94.7	94.8	25	4-11
Miami	94.0	93.6	93.6	93.7	23	7-8
Buffalo	92.9	93.0	92.9	92.9	17	5-10
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	107.2	107.4	107.4	107.3	24.5	8-6-1
Baltimore	104.5	104.9	104.7	104.7	20	9-6
Cleveland	97.7	98.1	98.5	98.1	24	7-7-1
Cincinnati	95.1	95.2	94.9	95.1	23.5	6-9
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Indianapolis	102.9	102.3	103.3	102.8	25.5	9-6
Houston	102.4	102.5	103.0	102.6	24.5	10-5
Tennessee	98.8	98.9	98.8	98.8	19.5	9-6
Jacksonville	97.3	96.9	96.9	97.0	17.5	5-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	106.8	107.0	106.6	106.8	31	11-4
LA Chargers	104.3	105.0	104.8	104.7	23.5	11-4
Denver	98.7	98.5	98.4	98.5	19.5	6-9
Oakland	92.2	92.4	92.3	92.3	21.5	4-11
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	102.4	102.6	102.5	102.5	23.5	8-7
Dallas	100.5	100.3	99.9	100.2	19.5	9-6
N.Y. Giants	97.5	97.5	97.7	97.6	23	5-10
Washington	94.3	93.7	94.1	94.0	22	7-8
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Chicago	104.9	105.1	105.8	105.3	22	11-4
Minnesota	103.3	103.4	103.3	103.3	20.5	8-6-1
Green Bay	99.8	100.2	99.7	99.9	25	6-8-1
Detroit	97.6	97.3	96.8	97.2	23	5-10
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	112.3	112.3	112.3	112.3	27	13-2
Atlanta	100.0	99.9	99.8	99.9	25.5	6-9
Carolina	99.8	99.3	99.5	99.5	23	6-9
Tampa Bay	95.9	96.1	96.8	96.3	25	5-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	106.5	106.7	106.3	106.5	28	12-3
Seattle	104.6	104.7	105.2	104.8	23.5	9-6
San Francisco	95.5	95.5	95.3	95.4	21	4-11
Arizona	91.9	91.3	91.2	91.5	17.5	3-12

 

The Playoff Scenarios

AFC

1.) Kansas City Chiefs

If the Chiefs beat Oakland, they win the #1 seed in the AFC and will have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs to the Super Bowl.

If the Chiefs lose to Oakland, then they can fall to the #5 seed if the Chargers beat Denver.  If the Chargers also lose, then the Chiefs will still win the AFC West, but they could fall to the #2 seed if New England or Houston wins, and the #3 seed if both New England and Houston win.

 

2.) New England Patriots

If the Patriots beat the New York Jets, they can be no worse than the #2 seed no matter what Houston does.  If the Pats beat the Jets and Kansas City loses to Oakland, New England will grab the #1 seed and get homefield advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs.

If the Patriots lose to the Jets, and Baltimore beats Cleveland, then the Patriots lose a first round bye and will be the #3 seed if Indianapolis beats Tennessee and the #4 seed if Tennessee beats Indianapolis.

If the Patriots lose and Baltimore also loses, New England retains the #2 seed if Indianapolis beats Tennessee, but they fall to the #3 seed if Baltimore loses but Tennessee beats Indianapolis.

 

3.) Houston Texas

Houston can still earn the #1 seed, if the Texans beat Jacksonville, while Kansas City and New England both lose.  If Houston wins but either Kansas City or New England win their games, the Texans would be the #2 seed.  If Houston wins but Kansas City and New England both win, then Houston gets the #3 seed.

If Houston loses to Jacksonville, then the Texans fall into a wildcard spot, as the winner of the Tennessee-Indianapolis game would win the AFC South.  Houston would fall to a #6 seed with a loss.

 

4. ) Baltimore Ravens or Pittsburgh Steelers

If the Ravens beat Cleveland, they are the AFC North Champion.  They can earn the #2 seed if Houston and New England both lose.  They will earn the #3 seed if they win and either New England or Houston loses.  They will earn the #4 seed if both New England and Houston win.

If the Ravens lose, but Pittsburgh also loses, they will be the #4 seed, but if the Ravens lose and Pittsburgh wins, the Steelers will win the AFC North, and the Ravens will be eliminated.  In the rare event that Pittsburgh wins and Baltimore ties Cleveland, then Pittsburgh will win the tiebreaker and become the AFC North champions and #4 Seed.

If Pittsburgh and Baltimore both win, then the Steelers could only squeak in as a Wildcard team if Indianapolis and Tennessee were to tie.

 

5.) Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers can still win the AFC West and wrap up the top seed in the AFC if they beat Denver and Oakland beats Kansas City.  If Kansas City and the Chargers both win, then the Chargers are the #5 seed.

If the Chargers lose to Denver, then they are the #5 seed regardless of the outcomes of any other games.

 

6.) Tennessee Titans or Indianapolis Colts

Since this is the Sunday Night Game, both teams will know their fate when this game kicks off.

First, the winner of this game will be in the playoffs, while the loser will not be in the playoffs.  If the game ties, then either Indianapolis will be in the playoffs and Tennessee will be out, or both teams will be eliminated if Pittsburgh and Baltimore both win.

If Houston loses earlier in the day, then the winner of this game will win the AFC South.

If Tennessee beats Indianapolis:

The Titans can move up as high as the #2 seed if they beat the Colts, while New England, Houston, and Baltimore all lose.  The Titans can earn the #3 seed, if they beat the Colts, while New England and Houston lose but Baltimore wins or While Houston loses and Baltimore loses.  The Titans can earn the #4 seed if they beat the Colts, while Houston loses, and New England and Baltimore win.

If Tennessee beats Indianapolis, while Baltimore, New England, and Houston win, the Titans are the #6 seed.

If Indianapolis beats Tennessee:

The Colts can move no higher than a #3 seed if Houston loses to Jacksonville and Baltimore loses to Cleveland, no matter what happens in the other games.  If Indianapolis wins, Houston loses, and Baltimore wins, then the Colts are the #4 seed.

If Indianapolis wins and Houston wins, then the Colts are the #6 seed

 

NFC

1.) New Orleans Saints

The Saints have clinched the #1 overall seed in the NFC and have homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.  Thus, they can rest Drew Brees and other key players this week in a meaningless game against Carolina.

 

2.) Los Angeles Rams

If the Rams beat San Francisco or Chicago loses to Minnesota, the Rams are the #2 seed.

If the Rams lose to the 49ers, while Chicago beats Minnesota, the Rams fall to a #3 seed and lose a first round bye.

 

3.) Chicago Bears

If Chicago wins and the Rams lose, the Bears get a bye and the #2 seed.

If Chicago wins and the Rams win, or if the Bears lose, they will be the #3 seed.

 

4.) Dallas Cowboys

Dallas is the automatic #4 seed, win or lose against the Giants.  The Cowboys will rest their starters in a meaningless game that could be Eli Manning’s last in a Giants’ uniform.

 

5.) Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have clinched a Wildcard berth in the NFC Playoffs.  If Seattle wins, or Minnesota loses, then the Seahawks are the #5 seed.  If Seattle loses and Minnesota wins, the Seahawks fall to the #6 seed.

 

6.) Minnesota Vikings or Philadelphia Eagles

If Minnesota beats Chicago, the Vikings earn a Wildcard Bid, and would be the #5 seed if Seattle loses and the #6 seed if Seattle wins.

If Minnesota loses, then if Philadelphia beats Washington, the Eagles will earn the Wildcard bid and #6 seed, and the Vikings would be eliminated.

If both Minnesota and Philadelphia lose, then the Vikings sneak in as the #6 seed.

In the rare event that Minnesota ties Chicago, the Vikings would still be the #6 seed at 8-6-2, even if Philadelphia wins to get to 9-7.

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 17: December 31, 2017

Week 17 PiRate Rating Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Baltimore	Cincinnati	13.1	12.6	13.6	38
Detroit	Green Bay	3.2	3.0	3.7	46
Miami	Buffalo	1.8	1.6	1.3	41
Atlanta	Carolina	3.3	3.8	3.0	50
Tampa Bay	New Orleans	-7.9	-7.3	-8.0	49
Tennessee	Jacksonville	-2.4	-2.2	-2.8	45
New England	N.Y. Jets	16.4	16.9	16.5	39
Indianapolis	Houston	3.3	3.4	3.5	44
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	18.8	18.3	21.8	39
N.Y. Giants	Washington	-4.9	-4.6	-5.0	42
Minnesota	Chicago	12.7	12.3	13.4	34
Philadelphia	Dallas	6.9	6.0	8.0	46
LA Chargers	Oakland	9.3	8.4	10.2	44
Seattle	Arizona	8.7	8.9	8.3	41
Denver	Kansas City	-6.0	-6.1	-6.4	42
LA Rams	San Francisco	13.7	13.3	14.1	50

Current PiRate Ratings–12/26/2017

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.3	108.4	108.4	108.3	23	12-3
Buffalo	96.0	96.3	96.1	96.1	20	8-7
Miami	95.8	95.9	95.3	95.7	21	6-9
N. Y. Jets	94.3	94.0	94.4	94.3	16	5-10
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	107.0	107.1	107.2	107.1	23	12-3
Baltimore	105.5	105.7	105.6	105.6	22	9-6
Cincinnati	95.3	96.1	94.9	95.5	16	6-9
Cleveland	90.7	91.4	87.9	90.0	16	0-15
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	103.3	103.2	103.4	103.3	23	10-5
Tennessee	97.8	98.0	97.6	97.8	22	8-7
Indianapolis	92.3	92.7	91.8	92.3	22	4-11
Houston	91.0	91.2	90.4	90.9	22	3-12
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Chargers	104.5	104.1	104.7	104.4	23	8-7
Kansas City	103.1	103.2	103.5	103.3	23	9-6
Oakland	97.7	98.3	97.0	97.7	21	6-9
Denver	95.2	95.0	95.1	95.1	19	5-10
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	106.7	105.4	107.7	106.6	23	13-2
Dallas	101.8	101.4	101.7	101.7	23	8-7
Washington	98.4	98.6	98.2	98.4	24	7-8
N.Y. Giants	91.5	92.0	91.2	91.6	18	2-13
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	107.4	107.0	108.1	107.5	18	12-3
Detroit	99.4	99.7	99.2	99.5	27	8-7
Green Bay	98.2	98.7	97.5	98.1	19	7-8
Chicago	96.7	96.8	96.7	96.7	16	5-10
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.4	106.8	107.9	107.4	28	11-4
Atlanta	103.9	103.7	104.1	103.9	24	9-6
Carolina	103.2	102.4	103.5	103.0	26	11-4
Tampa Bay	97.5	97.5	97.9	97.6	21	4-11
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	107.3	106.6	107.9	107.3	25	11-4
Seattle	102.9	103.0	102.3	102.7	20	9-6
Arizona	97.2	97.1	97.0	97.1	21	7-8
San Francisco	96.1	95.8	96.3	96.1	25	5-10

Playoff Scenarios

You can go to any sports site online to see the generic playoff scenarios, where you can see what must happen for each potential playoff team to earn their spot.  Let’s take a look at the logical scenarios in the order that they are most likely to occur.

AFC

Baltimore

The Ravens have the overwhelming advantage among the teams vying for the two wildcard spots.  The 4 division championships have been clinched.  Baltimore is the number 5 seed if they win at home over Cincinnati Sunday.  The Ravens have about a 75% chance of winning this game and getting in at #5.  Even if the Ravens lose to the Bengals, if Either Buffalo or Tennessee lose but not both, the Ravens still get in as the number 6 seed.  If Baltimore loses, and both Buffalo and Tennessee lose, then Baltimore stays at number 5.

Baltimore falls out of the playoffs only if they lose to Cincinnati, and both Buffalo and Tennessee win.  The Ravens have about a 95% chance of making the playoffs.

Tennessee

The Titans have the best chance of making the playoffs as the 6-seed (or even 5-seed) of the remaining contenders.  If Tennessee beats Jacksonville on Sunday, the Titans are in as the 6-seed if Baltimore wins, and the 5-seed if Baltimore loses.  What Buffalo does in this instance does not affect the Titans moving up to number 5; only what Baltimore does affects the Titans seeding if they beat a Jacksonville team that has nothing to play for (3-seed win or lose) and will most likely rest their key players.

Tennessee can still make the playoffs at 8-8 if Buffalo and the LA Chargers lose.  They hold all tiebreakers over the Bills and Chargers.

Tennessee misses out on the playoffs if the Titans lose to the Jaguars and either Buffalo or the Chargers win.  The Titans chances for making the playoffs are about 55%.

Los Angeles Chargers

This is where the scenarios get a little tricky.  First, the Chargers can only get in the playoffs if they win and Tennessee loses.  However, they still need some help.  Either Baltimore must also win or Buffalo must lose, or else the Chargers will be eliminated.  If Buffalo and Baltimore win, then the Chargers get in over the Bills, but if Buffalo wins and Baltimore loses, then the Bills take the 6-seed.  Of course, if Tennessee and Buffalo lose, and the Chargers win, then the Chargers make it over both the Titans and Bills.  The Chargers have about a 37.5% chance of making the playoffs under these scenarios.

Buffalo

The Bills are on life support with only a 1 in 10 chance of making the playoffs.  There are at least two different sets of scenarios that will get the Bills in.  If they win at Miami in what will most likely be Jay Cutler’s real swan song, then they can get in if Baltimore loses, which will then eliminate the Chargers.  They would move up to a 5-seed in this scenario if Tennessee loses or gets the 6-seed if Tennessee wins.

The Bills will also make it as the 6-seed if they win and both Tennessee and the LA Chargers lose.  They can then earn the 5-seed if Baltimore also loses.

Top Seed

New England holds the tiebreaker over Pittsburgh, so the only way the Steelers can get the top seed is for the Jets to beat the Pats, while the Steelers send Cleveland to 0-16.

 

NFC

Philadelphia has clinched the top seed.  If Minnesota beats Chicago in Minneapolis, the Vikings get the 2-seed.  Minnesota can still get the 2-seed, if they lose to the Bears, and they will still get the 2-seed unless Carolina wins, New Orleans, loses, and the Rams lose. Then, Carolina would get this seed.  Chances are better than 95% that Minnesota gets the 2-seed.

For the 3-seed, the LA Rams hold the tiebreaker over New Orleans and Carolina, while New Orleans holds the tiebreaker over Carolina.

The 5-seed will go to either Carolina or New Orleans, whichever does not win the NFC South (New Orleans has about a 60% chance and Carolina a 40% chance).

The 6-seed is what is up for grabs

Atlanta

The Falcons earn this spot with a win over Carolina or a Seattle loss to Arizona.

Seattle

The Seahawks must win and Atlanta must lose.

Here are our Playoff Projections for this week.

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Pittsburgh
3	Jacksonville
4	Kansas City
5	Baltimore
6	Tennessee

NFC Seeding
1	Philadelphia
2	Minnesota
3	LA Rams
4	New Orleans
5	Carolina
6	Atlanta

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Baltimore

Jacksonville over Tennessee

Carolina over New Orleans

LA Rams over Atlanta

Divisional Round

New England over Kansas City

Jacksonville over Pittsburgh

Carolina over Philadelphia

LA Rams over Minnesota

Conference Championship

New England over Jacksonville

LA Rams over Carolina

Super Bowl 52

LA Rams over New England

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 17–January 1, 2012

It Will Be A Happy New Year For Fans Of…

The playoff races are quite easy to figure out as we enter week 17.  In the NFC, the winner of the Giants-Dallas game wins the East Division and earns the number four seed.  The Giants would earn the spot in the event of a tie.

 

Atlanta and Detroit will be the wildcards, and if they finished tied at 10-6, the Falcons will be the number five seed, and the Lions will be the number six seed.

 

San Francisco holds the tiebreaker over New Orleans for the number two seed, so the only way for the Saints to earn a first round bye is to beat Carolina and hope the 49ers lose to the lowly Rams, a team that will be fighting for the overall number one NFL Draft pick.

 

In the AFC, Denver and Oakland are tied for first in the West Division, but the Broncos hold the tiebreaker over the Raiders in the event they finish tied at 9-7, 8-7-1, or 8-8.

 

Houston is guaranteed the number three seed no matter what they do this week in their game against Tennessee.

 

New England, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh all have a shot at the top seed in the AFC.  If the Patriots win, they earn the spot.  If the Pats lose, Baltimore will take it away with a win over Cincinnati.  Pittsburgh can take it if both New England and Baltimore lose, and they beat Cleveland.

 

As for the Steelers and Ravens, Baltimore holds the tiebreaker edge.  The team not winning the North Division will be the number five seed.

 

The big story involves the final wildcard spot.  Cincinnati has the best percentage chance of taking the final seed.  If the Bengals beat Baltimore, Cinti is in the playoffs.  Should the Bengals lose, they could still earn the number six seed if the Jets lose or tie to Miami and only one or no AFC West teams finish 9-7.  If both Oakland and Denver win, then the Bengals will miss out on the playoffs if they lose to Baltimore.

 

Oakland has the next best chance at earning the wildcard.  The Raiders must beat San Diego.  Of course, if Denver loses, the Raiders would win the West Division.  If both Oakland and Denver win to finish 9-7, the Raiders will earn a wildcard spot if the Jets beat Miami and Tennessee does not finish 9-7.

 

Denver cannot earn a wildcard spot, because if they win this week, they are the West Division champions.  If the Broncos lose, they can still be the West champs if Oakland loses.

 

The Jets have a somewhat remote shot at making the playoffs if they beat Miami and the Bengals lose.  Tennessee would have to lose to Houston, and either Oakland or Denver would have to lose or tie. 

 

Tennessee has the least likely chance of earning a wildcard spot.  If the Bengals lose, and the Titans beat Houston, there are two ways they can earn the final spot.  The first way would be for the Jets to lose to Miami while both Oakland and Denver win their games.  The second way would be for the Jets to Win while either Oakland or Denver fail to win their games.

 

Here is our look at what we think will happen:

 

NFC

The Giants beat Dallas to earn the number four seed.

Atlanta beats Tampa Bay to earn the number five seed.

Detroit becomes the number six seed.

Both San Francisco and New Orleans win, giving the 49ers the number two seed and the bye.

 

AFC

New England beats Buffalo to sew up the number one seed.

Baltimore edges Cincinnati in a near-empty Paul Brown Stadium to earn the number two seed.

Houston already owns the number three seed and rests its starters, but their defense shuts down Tennessee, knocking the Titans out of the playoffs.

Denver comes through in the final minutes to beat Kansas City and win the West, while Oakland handles San Diego to finish 9-7.

Miami beats the Jets to knock them out of the playoffs, thus giving the Raiders the number six seed.

 

Wildcard Round

#6 Detroit at #3 New Orleans

#5 Atlanta at #4 New York Giants

#6 Oakland at #3 Houston

#5 Pittsburgh at #4 Denver

 

Divisional Round

#3 New Orleans at #2 San Francisco

#5 Atlanta at #1 Green Bay

#6 Oakland at #1 New England

#5 Pittsburgh at #2 Baltimore

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans at Green Bay

Baltimore at New England

 

Super Bowl

Green Bay vs. New England

 

Champions

Green Bay

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Philadelphia Eagles	104.3	103.9	103.5	2	7	–	8	–	0	362	318
New York Giants	102.2	101.8	102.0	1	8	–	7	–	0	363	386
Dallas Cowboys	100.8	101.0	101.0	3	8	–	7	–	0	355	316
Washington Redskins	94.0	94.3	92.9	2.5	5	–	10	–	0	278	333
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Green Bay Packers	111.9	111.5	109.7	3.5	14	–	1	–	0	515	318
Detroit Lions	104.1	104.3	103.3	3	10	–	5	–	0	433	342
Minnesota Vikings	95.0	94.8	93.8	3	3	–	12	–	0	327	432
Chicago Bears	94.1	95.5	98.5	3.5	7	–	8	–	0	336	328
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New Orleans Saints	112.5	111.9	106.2	5	12	–	3	–	0	502	322
Atlanta Falcons	104.2	104.0	105.7	3.5	9	–	6	–	0	357	326
Carolina Panthers	100.2	99.9	99.6	2	6	–	9	–	0	389	384
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	89.1	89.3	91.3	3	4	–	11	–	0	263	449
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Francisco 49ers	106.4	106.5	105.6	3.5	12	–	3	–	0	346	202
Seattle Seahawks	100.8	100.7	102.1	2	7	–	8	–	0	301	292
Arizona Cardinals	97.5	97.5	99.0	3	7	–	8	–	0	289	328
St. Louis Rams	90.3	90.0	87.7	2.5	2	–	13	–	0	166	373
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New England Patriots	109.5	109.3	107.9	1.5	12	–	3	–	0	464	321
Miami Dolphins	103.2	102.7	102.7	3	5	–	10	–	0	310	296
New York Jets	101.6	101.4	99.9	3.5	8	–	7	–	0	360	344
Buffalo Bills	94.8	95.0	100.3	4.5	6	–	9	–	0	351	385
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Pittsburgh Steelers	107.3	107.1	105.2	4.5	11	–	4	–	0	312	218
Baltimore Ravens	104.9	104.9	106.2	4	11	–	4	–	0	354	250
Cincinnati Bengals	98.9	99.0	103.7	2	9	–	6	–	0	328	299
Cleveland Browns	94.9	95.0	94.6	1.5	4	–	11	–	0	209	294
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Houston Texans	99.6	100.8	102.5	1.5	10	–	5	–	0	359	255
Tennessee Titans	99.3	99.0	99.1	1.5	8	–	7	–	0	302	295
Jacksonville Jaguars	96.9	96.5	90.9	3	4	–	11	–	0	224	316
Indianapolis Colts	92.5	92.3	91.6	3.5	2	–	13	–	0	230	411
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Diego Chargers	102.1	101.9	101.1	3.5	7	–	8	–	0	368	351
Oakland Raiders	97.5	97.4	98.4	1.5	8	–	7	–	0	333	395
Kansas City Chiefs	96.3	95.9	95.5	2	6	–	9	–	0	205	335
Denver Broncos	94.6	94.8	98.8	1.5	8	–	7	–	0	306	383

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

Home Team in CAPS

Vegas Line as of Tuesday, December 27, 2011 @ 3:00 PM EST

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PHILADELPHIA	Washington	12.3	11.6	12.6	9	46 1/2
ATLANTA	Tampa Bay	18.6	18.2	17.9	13	47
San Francisco	ST. LOUIS	13.6	14.0	15.4	10 1/2	35 1/2
MINNESOTA	Chicago	3.9	2.3	-1.7	-1	40
GREEN BAY	Detroit	11.3	10.7	9.9	-3 1/2	46 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS	Dallas	2.4	1.8	2.0	3	46 1/2
NEW ORLEANS	Carolina	17.3	17.0	11.6	9 1/2	55
HOUSTON	Tennessee	1.8	3.3	4.9	-3	40 1/2
Baltimore	CINCINNATI	4.0	3.9	0.5	2 1/2	38
Pittsburgh	CLEVELAND	10.9	10.6	9.1	7	36
JACKSONVILLE	Indianapolis	7.4	7.2	2.3	4	37
MIAMI	New York Jets	4.6	4.3	5.8	1 1/2	41 1/2
NEW ENGLAND	Buffalo	16.2	15.8	9.1	11 1/2	51
San Diego	OAKLAND	3.1	3.0	1.2	-3	49
Kansas City	DENVER	0.2	-0.4	-4.8	-3	37
Seattle	ARIZONA	0.3	0.2	0.1	-3	41