The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 21, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 8: October 24-28, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Minnesota

Washington

19.2

16.5

17.7

Detroit

N.Y. Giants

8.5

6.8

7.2

Tennessee

Tampa Bay

4.8

2.7

1.9

Chicago

LA Chargers

8.3

4.6

5.8

Atlanta

Seattle

-4.7

-4.1

-4.8

Jacksonville

N.Y. Jets

9.6

9.0

10.7

Buffalo

Philadelphia

-2.0

1.2

1.1

LA Rams

Cincinnati

13.6

12.3

12.1

New Orleans

Arizona

16.8

13.3

13.1

Houston

Oakland

10.3

10.7

9.7

San Francisco

Carolina

5.0

6.1

5.7

Indianapolis

Denver

4.0

4.7

4.6

New England

Cleveland

14.2

15.1

14.6

Kansas City

Green Bay

-0.7

-0.3

-1.3

Pittsburgh

Miami

15.1

15.2

15.9

 

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Minnesota

Washington

41

Detroit

N.Y. Giants

48.5

Tennessee

Tampa Bay

44

Chicago

LA Chargers

41.5

Atlanta

Seattle

52

Jacksonville

N.Y. Jets

39.5

Buffalo

Philadelphia

43

LA Rams

Cincinnati

52

New Orleans

Arizona

48

Houston

Oakland

48

San Francisco

Carolina

47.5

Indianapolis

Denver

41

New England

Cleveland

44.5

Kansas City

Green Bay

56.5

Pittsburgh

Miami

48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

111.0

112.2

111.8

111.7

21

7-0

Buffalo

99.4

100.6

100.1

100.0

17.5

5-1

N. Y. Jets

92.5

93.5

92.2

92.7

20.5

1-5

Miami

86.8

87.0

86.6

86.8

26.5

0-6

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

101.7

101.3

102.3

101.8

23

5-2

Cleveland

99.8

100.1

100.2

100.0

23.5

2-4

Pittsburgh

98.8

99.3

99.6

99.2

21.5

2-4

Cincinnati

93.6

93.4

93.8

93.6

24

0-7

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

103.9

104.2

103.8

104.0

23.5

4-3

Indianapolis

100.1

101.0

100.6

100.6

22.5

4-2

Jacksonville

99.1

99.5

99.9

99.5

19

3-4

Tennessee

98.1

98.4

98.0

98.2

15.5

3-4

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

100.7

101.2

100.6

100.8

30.5

5-2

LA Chargers

99.5

99.7

98.8

99.3

22

2-5

Denver

99.2

99.3

99.0

99.2

18.5

2-5

Oakland

96.6

96.6

97.1

96.8

24.5

3-3

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

104.1

104.7

104.1

104.3

20.5

4-3

Philadelphia

103.9

101.9

101.5

102.4

25.5

3-4

N.Y. Giants

94.1

94.5

95.0

94.5

24.5

2-5

Washington

91.2

92.2

91.6

91.7

18.5

1-6

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

107.4

105.7

106.2

106.5

22.5

5-2

Green Bay

104.5

104.5

104.9

104.6

26

6-1

Chicago

104.8

101.3

101.6

102.6

19.5

3-3

Detroit

99.5

98.4

99.2

99.1

24

2-3-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

108.2

105.2

105.6

106.3

24.5

6-1

Carolina

102.3

102.5

103.3

102.7

24.5

4-2

Tampa Bay

95.9

98.2

98.6

97.6

28.5

2-4

Atlanta

94.8

95.1

94.4

94.7

26.5

1-6

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Rams

107.2

105.7

105.9

106.3

28

4-3

San Francisco

104.3

105.6

106.0

105.3

23

6-0

Seattle

102.5

102.2

102.2

102.3

25.5

6-1

Arizona

94.5

94.9

95.5

95.0

23.5

3-3-1

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Indianapolis

3

Kansas City

4

Baltimore

5

Buffalo

6

Houston

NFC Seeding

1

Green Bay

2

New Orleans

3

San Francisco

4

Dallas

5

Minnesota

6

LA Rams

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Houston

Buffalo over Baltimore

LA Rams over San Francisco

Minnesota over Dallas

Divisional Round

New England over Buffalo

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Green Bay over LA Rams

New Orleans over Minnesota

Conference Championship

New England over Kansas City

Green Bay over New Orleans

Super Bowl 54

New England over Green Bay

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 7, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 6: October 10-14, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

New England

N. Y. Giants

17.1

17.6

16.1

Tampa Bay

Carolina

-3.1

-0.4

-0.6

Baltimore

Cincinnati

9.9

9.7

10.2

Cleveland

Seattle

-0.5

0.0

0.0

Kansas City

Houston

4.2

4.5

4.2

Jacksonville

New Orleans

-6.0

-2.1

-2.0

Minnesota

Philadelphia

2.1

2.1

2.6

Miami

Washington

-3.1

-4.5

-4.5

LA Rams

San Francisco

7.4

4.0

3.9

Arizona

Atlanta

0.2

0.0

1.2

N. Y. Jets

Dallas

-6.4

-6.2

-7.1

Denver

Tennessee

3.2

3.0

2.9

LA Chargers

Pittsburgh

5.7

5.7

4.4

Green Bay

Detroit

5.9

7.2

6.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

New England

N. Y. Giants

46

Tampa Bay

Carolina

52

Baltimore

Cincinnati

47.5

Cleveland

Seattle

48

Kansas City

Houston

54

Jacksonville

New Orleans

44

Minnesota

Philadelphia

45

Miami

Washington

46.5

LA Rams

San Francisco

53

Arizona

Atlanta

48

N. Y. Jets

Dallas

42

Denver

Tennessee

36.5

LA Chargers

Pittsburgh

43

Green Bay

Detroit

48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

109.0

110.1

109.4

109.5

21.5

5-0

Buffalo

99.5

100.9

100.5

100.3

18

4-1

N. Y. Jets

93.3

94.3

92.9

93.5

21.5

0-4

Miami

86.1

85.9

85.3

85.8

26.5

0-4

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

101.1

100.7

101.7

101.2

23

3-2

Cleveland

99.6

99.9

100.0

99.8

23

2-3

Pittsburgh

97.6

98.0

98.3

97.9

21.5

1-4

Cincinnati

94.3

94.0

94.5

94.3

24.5

0-5

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

103.9

104.1

103.8

104.0

23

3-2

Tennessee

99.3

99.7

99.5

99.5

16.5

2-3

Indianapolis

98.9

99.8

99.2

99.3

22

3-2

Jacksonville

98.1

98.7

99.0

98.6

20

2-3

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

105.1

105.6

105.0

105.2

31

4-1

LA Chargers

100.9

101.2

100.2

100.7

21.5

2-3

Denver

99.6

99.7

99.4

99.6

20

1-4

Oakland

96.8

96.9

97.5

97.1

23.5

3-2

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Philadelphia

106.1

104.1

103.9

104.7

24.5

3-2

Dallas

102.7

103.5

103.0

103.1

20.5

3-2

N.Y. Giants

95.0

95.5

96.3

95.6

24.5

2-3

Washington

91.7

92.9

92.4

92.3

20

0-5

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

105.2

103.2

103.4

104.0

20.5

3-2

Green Bay

103.5

103.6

103.8

103.6

25

4-1

Chicago

105.6

102.2

102.6

103.5

19

3-2

Detroit

100.0

98.9

100.0

99.7

23

2-1-1

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

106.6

103.3

103.5

104.5

24

4-1

Carolina

101.6

101.5

102.2

101.8

24

3-2

Tampa Bay

96.0

98.6

99.1

97.9

28

2-3

Atlanta

96.5

97.0

96.4

96.6

26

1-4

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Rams

107.0

105.1

105.3

105.8

29

3-2

San Francisco

102.6

104.1

104.4

103.7

24

4-0

Seattle

103.1

102.9

103.0

103.0

25

4-1

Arizona

93.7

94.0

94.5

94.1

22

1-3-1

 

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Kansas City

3

Houston

4

Baltimore

5

Indianapolis

6

Buffalo

NFC Seeding

1

San Francisco

2

New Orleans

3

Green Bay

4

Philadelphia

5

Seattle

6

Minnesota

Wildcard Round

Buffalo over Houston

Indianapolis over Baltimore

Green Bay over Minnesota

Philadelphia over Seattle

 

 

Divisional Round

New England over Buffalo

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Philadelphia over San Francisco

New Orleans over Green Bay

 

 

Conference Championship

New England over Kansas City

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

 

Super Bowl 54

New England over New Orleans

 

 

 

 

 

September 23, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 4: September 26-30, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Total

Green Bay

Philadelphia

0.7

3.6

4.1

47

Houston

Carolina

5.5

5.9

4.7

45.5

Baltimore

Cleveland

4.6

3.8

5.0

45

N.Y. Giants

Washington

2.4

1.9

2.9

46.5

Miami

LA Chargers

-13.0

-13.4

-12.8

49.5

Indianapolis

Oakland

6.1

6.9

5.8

45

Detroit

Kansas City

-4.2

-6.3

-4.6

52.5

Buffalo

New England

-8.2

-8.0

-8.0

41

Atlanta

Tennessee

3.9

4.7

4.2

44

LA Rams

Tampa Bay

18.3

13.0

12.9

53.5

Arizona

Seattle

-5.1

-4.4

-3.8

48

Chicago

Minnesota

4.4

2.8

3.0

42

Denver

Jacksonville

4.3

3.6

3.0

38

New Orleans

Dallas

5.9

1.0

1.6

45.5

Pittsburgh

Cincinnati

1.5

1.9

1.5

47.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C

 

East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 108.5 109.6 108.9 109.0 22 3-0
Buffalo 97.8 99.1 98.4 98.4 19 3-0
N. Y. Jets 94.4 95.7 94.3 94.8 22.5 0-3
Miami 86.3 86.2 85.7 86.1 27 0-3
 

 

North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Baltimore 102.3 101.9 103.1 102.5 22.5 2-1
Cleveland 100.8 101.1 101.1 101.0 22.5 1-2
Cincinnati 97.0 96.8 97.5 97.1 25.5 0-3
Pittsburgh 96.0 96.3 96.5 96.2 22 0-3
 

 

South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 103.4 103.5 103.1 103.4 22 2-1
Tennessee 99.0 99.2 99.2 99.1 18 1-2
Indianapolis 98.1 99.0 98.4 98.5 22.5 2-1
Jacksonville 97.6 98.3 98.5 98.1 18 1-2
 

 

West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 106.6 107.4 106.9 107.0 31 3-0
LA Chargers 102.3 102.6 101.6 102.1 22.5 1-2
Denver 98.9 98.9 98.5 98.8 20 0-3
Oakland 95.0 95.1 95.6 95.2 22.5 1-2
 

 

N F C

 

East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Dallas 103.7 104.8 104.4 104.3 20.5 3-0
Philadelphia 104.4 101.8 101.5 102.5 23.5 1-2
Washington 94.7 96.0 95.8 95.5 21.5 0-3
N.Y. Giants 94.6 95.4 96.2 95.4 25 1-2
 

 

North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 106.2 102.5 102.8 103.8 20.5 2-1
Minnesota 104.8 102.7 102.8 103.5 21.5 2-1
Green Bay 102.1 102.4 102.6 102.4 23.5 3-0
Detroit 99.4 98.1 99.2 98.9 21.5 2-0-1
 

 

South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.1 103.3 103.5 104.6 25 2-1
Carolina 100.9 100.6 101.4 101.0 23.5 1-2
Atlanta 100.0 100.9 100.4 100.4 26 1-2
Tampa Bay 93.4 96.5 96.9 95.6 27 1-2
 

 

West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 108.7 106.5 106.8 107.3 26.5 3-0
Seattle 102.1 101.9 101.8 101.9 25 2-1
San Francisco 99.9 101.4 101.6 101.0 24.5 3-0
Arizona 94.0 94.4 95.0 94.5 23 0-2-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Kansas City
3 Baltimore
4 Indianapolis
5 Buffalo
6 Houston

 

NFC Seeding
1 LA Rams
2 Dallas
3 Green Bay
4 New Orleans
5 Minnesota
6 San Francisco

 

Wildcard Round
Houston over Baltimore
Indianapolis over Buffalo
Green Bay over San Francisco
New Orleans over Minnesota
 

 

Divisional Round
New England over Houston
Kansas City over Indianapolis
LA Rams over New Orleans
Green Bay over Dallas
 

 

Conference Championship
New England over Kansas City
LA Rams over Green Bay
 

 

Super Bowl 53
New England over LA Rams

 

 

 

September 22, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 23, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday

September 26

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Memphis

Navy

18.1

15.0

19.5

 

 

Friday

September 27

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Virginia Tech

Duke

1.3

1.8

1.6

Maryland

Penn St.

-4.3

-3.8

-4.7

Air Force

San Jose St.

15.5

14.7

17.1

 

 

Saturday

September 28

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

California

Arizona St.

3.6

4.3

4.2

Wisconsin

Northwestern

15.0

15.7

16.3

Boston College

Wake Forest

-0.5

-0.1

-0.5

Central Florda

Connecticut

40.6

35.9

43.0

Western Michigan

Central Michigan

21.3

19.4

21.0

South Florida

SMU

-8.6

-7.4

-9.3

Miami (O)

Buffalo

1.9

-0.6

1.1

Temple

Georgia Tech

6.9

7.7

7.4

Florida St.

North Carolina St.

3.6

4.0

3.2

Baylor

Iowa St.

0.7

0.6

0.3

Toledo

BYU

-6.0

-5.6

-5.3

Massachusetts

Akron

-8.8

-6.7

-9.2

Michigan

Rutgers

28.4

26.4

29.1

Purdue

Minnesota

-0.9

-0.2

0.1

Georgia Southern

Louisiana

0.9

0.0

0.5

Iowa

Middle Tennessee

28.3

27.3

28.4

Wyoming

UNLV

13.1

13.0

13.5

Utah

Washington St.

6.7

5.9

6.6

New Mexico St.

Fresno St.

-20.3

-18.4

-21.1

Nevada

Hawaii

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

Oregon St.

Stanford

-6.5

-4.2

-7.5

Michigan St.

Indiana

13.4

14.6

14.9

North Carolina

Clemson

-29.2

-25.6

-29.3

South Carolina

Kentucky

6.3

6.0

7.4

Alabama

Ole Miss

37.1

34.3

39.1

Vanderbilt

Northern Illinois

10.6

10.5

9.3

TCU

Kansas

12.0

14.2

12.4

Oklahoma St.

Kansas St.

1.1

1.9

0.6

Auburn

Mississippi St.

7.0

9.2

7.0

Oklahoma

Texas Tech

19.7

18.6

20.6

Charlotte

Florida Atlantic

-0.3

1.1

-0.5

Notre Dame

Virginia

16.6

14.2

16.8

Appalachian St.

Coastal Carolina

21.0

17.9

21.1

Marshall

Cincinnati

-9.3

-8.2

-8.2

Old Dominion

East Carolina

0.3

-1.3

1.3

Liberty

New Mexico

9.2

7.3

10.5

Troy

Arkansas St.

7.7

8.1

7.2

Louisiana-Monroe

South Alabama

17.0

14.5

18.1

Southern Miss.

UTEP

31.1

23.6

30.8

Rice

Louisiana Tech

-8.9

-7.3

-9.8

Western Kentucky

UAB

1.7

0.4

2.2

Utah St.

Colorado St.

29.1

24.3

30.4

Nebraska

Ohio St.

-22.5

-19.6

-23.7

North Texas

Houston

0.8

-0.6

-0.8

Texas A&M (n)

Arkansas

23.8

21.2

23.3

Washington

USC

9.5

8.0

10.1

Arizona

UCLA

6.6

7.1

8.0

 

FBS vs. FCS

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Syracuse

Holy Cross

35

Pittsburgh

Delaware

29

Florida

Towson St.

36

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Alabama

136.1

132.5

137.2

135.2

2

Clemson

134.9

131.6

135.8

134.1

3

Ohio St.

132.2

130.7

132.9

131.9

4

Georgia

127.7

126.0

128.3

127.3

5

L S U

126.5

123.9

125.5

125.3

6

Oklahoma

122.6

121.7

122.5

122.3

7

Notre Dame

121.0

119.0

121.2

120.4

8

Florida

121.4

118.5

120.8

120.2

9

Wisconsin

119.6

119.3

119.7

119.5

10

Auburn

119.2

117.4

118.8

118.5

11

Michigan St.

117.7

117.3

118.0

117.7

12

Texas A&M

118.3

116.6

117.0

117.3

13

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

14

Michigan

117.1

115.0

117.2

116.4

15

Penn St.

116.7

115.6

116.3

116.2

16

Utah

116.5

114.8

116.7

116.0

17

Missouri

116.3

113.9

116.6

115.6

18

Iowa

116.0

114.0

116.1

115.3

19

Washington

113.6

113.1

114.7

113.8

20

Mississippi St.

115.2

111.2

114.8

113.7

21

Washington St.

112.8

112.0

113.1

112.6

22

Iowa St.

112.4

112.7

112.3

112.5

23

Texas

112.4

112.5

112.4

112.4

24

Kansas St.

112.1

111.8

112.1

112.0

25

Central Florida

111.5

110.7

112.6

111.6

26

Oklahoma St.

110.1

110.7

109.7

110.2

27

South Carolina

110.8

109.0

110.4

110.1

28

Baylor

110.1

110.2

109.6

110.0

29

Minnesota

109.7

109.0

108.3

109.0

30

Maryland

109.4

108.8

108.6

108.9

31

California

107.6

107.5

108.9

108.0

32

Miami (Fla.)

107.6

106.8

108.5

107.6

33

U S C

107.1

108.1

107.6

107.6

34

Virginia

107.4

107.8

107.4

107.5

35

Nebraska

106.7

108.0

106.3

107.0

36

Arizona St.

107.0

106.2

107.6

107.0

37

Northwestern

107.6

106.6

106.4

106.9

38

Kentucky

107.5

106.0

106.0

106.5

39

Utah St.

106.3

105.3

107.7

106.4

40

Indiana

107.3

105.6

106.1

106.3

41

Pittsburgh

106.3

105.9

106.2

106.1

42

Syracuse

106.3

105.8

106.3

106.1

43

Boise St.

106.2

105.5

106.5

106.1

44

T C U

104.8

108.1

105.1

106.0

45

Purdue

105.8

105.8

105.3

105.6

46

Texas Tech

105.9

106.1

104.9

105.6

47

Memphis

105.3

105.1

106.4

105.6

48

Duke

105.5

105.0

105.4

105.3

49

Cincinnati

105.4

103.8

105.5

104.9

50

Appalachian St.

105.3

103.7

104.8

104.6

51

Stanford

105.0

104.0

104.8

104.6

52

Tennessee

105.0

104.8

103.2

104.3

53

Wake Forest

104.3

103.8

104.9

104.3

54

West Virginia

104.6

104.2

104.2

104.3

55

Virginia Tech

103.7

103.9

104.0

103.9

56

SMU

102.9

102.7

103.9

103.2

57

North Carolina

102.7

103.0

103.6

103.1

58

Arizona

102.5

102.7

102.8

102.7

59

Florida St.

102.6

102.8

102.4

102.6

60

North Carolina St.

102.0

101.8

102.3

102.0

61

Vanderbilt

102.6

101.3

101.3

101.7

62

Ole Miss

102.0

101.1

101.1

101.4

63

Army

101.2

101.3

100.8

101.1

64

Boston College

100.8

100.7

101.4

101.0

65

BYU

100.9

100.9

101.0

100.9

66

Tulane

100.2

100.7

100.8

100.6

67

Temple

100.4

99.4

101.4

100.4

68

Fresno St.

99.7

100.3

100.4

100.1

69

Western Michigan

100.4

99.2

100.4

100.0

70

Colorado

99.5

99.4

99.6

99.5

71

Louisiana

98.7

98.9

98.5

98.7

72

Air Force

97.8

99.0

98.7

98.5

73

San Diego St.

97.9

99.6

97.8

98.4

74

U C L A

98.9

98.5

97.8

98.4

75

Houston

96.1

97.2

98.7

97.3

76

Illinois

96.7

97.6

95.7

96.7

77

Georgia Southern

96.6

95.9

96.0

96.2

78

Kansas

95.9

96.9

95.7

96.2

79

Wyoming

95.2

97.2

95.6

96.0

80

Hawaii

95.7

97.3

94.9

96.0

81

Troy

95.8

96.1

94.9

95.6

82

Arkansas

95.5

96.4

94.7

95.6

83

Georgia Tech

96.0

94.1

96.5

95.5

84

Oregon St.

95.5

96.8

94.3

95.5

85

Louisville

95.9

95.6

95.1

95.5

86

North Texas

94.9

94.5

95.9

95.1

87

Southern Miss.

95.2

93.0

95.5

94.6

88

Marshall

93.6

93.1

94.8

93.8

89

Northern Illinois

93.9

92.8

94.0

93.6

90

Ohio

93.5

92.6

94.4

93.5

91

Tulsa

92.6

93.3

93.5

93.1

92

Toledo

91.9

92.3

92.7

92.3

93

South Florida

91.3

92.3

91.6

91.7

94

Louisiana Tech

91.5

91.3

91.7

91.5

95

Rutgers

91.7

91.6

91.1

91.5

96

Nevada

90.8

92.6

90.4

91.3

97

Navy

90.1

93.1

89.9

91.1

98

Arkansas St.

91.0

91.1

90.7

90.9

99

Florida Atlantic

90.5

89.8

91.2

90.5

100

Middle Tennessee

90.6

89.7

90.7

90.3

101

Eastern Michigan

89.5

89.9

90.2

89.9

102

Buffalo

89.0

89.6

89.9

89.5

103

Liberty

88.7

89.9

89.1

89.2

104

Florida Int’l.

89.1

88.7

89.2

89.0

105

U A B

87.8

89.7

88.5

88.7

106

Kent St.

88.1

88.1

88.6

88.3

107

Charlotte

87.7

88.4

88.2

88.1

108

Louisiana-Monroe

87.6

88.3

87.6

87.8

109

Miami (Ohio)

87.9

86.0

88.0

87.3

110

Western Kentucky

86.5

87.2

87.8

87.1

111

Ball St.

87.0

86.5

86.7

86.7

112

Coastal Carolina

86.4

87.8

85.7

86.6

113

Georgia St.

85.8

87.1

84.9

85.9

114

U N L V

85.1

87.2

85.1

85.8

115

San Jose St.

85.3

87.3

84.6

85.7

116

Texas St.

83.0

83.9

82.8

83.2

117

New Mexico

82.0

85.1

81.0

82.7

118

East Carolina

82.0

84.1

81.5

82.5

119

Colorado St.

80.1

84.0

80.3

81.5

120

Central Michigan

81.1

81.9

81.4

81.4

121

Rice

80.0

81.5

79.3

80.3

122

Old Dominion

79.8

80.3

80.2

80.1

123

New Mexico St.

77.0

79.4

76.8

77.7

124

Akron

76.1

76.3

75.5

75.9

125

Texas-San Antonio

74.3

76.5

73.9

74.9

126

Connecticut

73.9

77.8

72.6

74.8

127

South Alabama

73.1

76.2

72.0

73.8

128

Bowling Green

72.1

71.8

71.9

72.0

129

U T E P

67.1

72.5

67.7

69.1

130

Massachusetts

65.3

67.6

64.3

65.7

 

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.5

110.7

112.6

111.6

0-0

3-1

Cincinnati

105.4

103.8

105.5

104.9

0-0

2-1

Temple

100.4

99.4

101.4

100.4

0-0

2-1

South Florida

91.3

92.3

91.6

91.7

0-0

1-2

East Carolina

82.0

84.1

81.5

82.5

0-1

2-2

Connecticut

73.9

77.8

72.6

74.8

0-0

1-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

105.3

105.1

106.4

105.6

0-0

3-0

SMU

102.9

102.7

103.9

103.2

0-0

4-0

Tulane

100.2

100.7

100.8

100.6

1-0

3-1

Houston

96.1

97.2

98.7

97.3

0-1

1-3

Tulsa

92.6

93.3

93.5

93.1

0-0

2-2

Navy

90.1

93.1

89.9

91.1

1-0

2-0

AAC Averages

96.0

96.7

96.5

96.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

134.9

131.6

135.8

134.1

2-0

4-0

Syracuse

106.3

105.8

106.3

106.1

0-1

2-2

Wake Forest

104.3

103.8

104.9

104.3

0-0

4-0

Florida St.

102.6

102.8

102.4

102.6

1-1

2-2

North Carolina St.

102.0

101.8

102.3

102.0

0-0

3-1

Boston College

100.8

100.7

101.4

101.0

1-0

3-1

Louisville

95.9

95.6

95.1

95.5

0-1

2-2

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

107.6

106.8

108.5

107.6

0-1

2-2

Virginia

107.4

107.8

107.4

107.5

2-0

4-0

Pittsburgh

106.3

105.9

106.2

106.1

0-1

2-2

Duke

105.5

105.0

105.4

105.3

0-0

2-1

Virginia Tech

103.7

103.9

104.0

103.9

0-1

2-1

North Carolina

102.7

103.0

103.6

103.1

1-0

2-2

Georgia Tech

96.0

94.1

96.5

95.5

0-1

1-2

ACC Averages

105.4

104.9

105.7

105.3

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

122.6

121.7

122.5

122.3

0-0

3-0

Iowa St.

112.4

112.7

112.3

112.5

0-0

2-1

Texas

112.4

112.5

112.4

112.4

1-0

3-1

Kansas St.

112.1

111.8

112.1

112.0

0-0

3-0

Oklahoma St.

110.1

110.7

109.7

110.2

0-1

3-1

Baylor

110.1

110.2

109.6

110.0

0-0

3-0

T C U

104.8

108.1

105.1

106.0

0-0

2-1

Texas Tech

105.9

106.1

104.9

105.6

0-0

2-1

West Virginia

104.6

104.2

104.2

104.3

1-0

3-1

Kansas

95.9

96.9

95.7

96.2

0-1

2-2

Big 12 Averages

109.1

109.5

108.8

109.1

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

132.2

130.7

132.9

131.9

1-0

4-0

Michigan St.

117.7

117.3

118.0

117.7

1-0

3-1

Michigan

117.1

115.0

117.2

116.4

0-1

2-1

Penn St.

116.7

115.6

116.3

116.2

0-0

3-0

Maryland

109.4

108.8

108.6

108.9

0-0

2-1

Indiana

107.3

105.6

106.1

106.3

0-1

3-1

Rutgers

91.7

91.6

91.1

91.5

0-1

1-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

119.6

119.3

119.7

119.5

1-0

3-0

Iowa

116.0

114.0

116.1

115.3

1-0

3-0

Minnesota

109.7

109.0

108.3

109.0

0-0

3-0

Nebraska

106.7

108.0

106.3

107.0

1-0

3-1

Northwestern

107.6

106.6

106.4

106.9

0-1

1-2

Purdue

105.8

105.8

105.3

105.6

0-0

1-2

Illinois

96.7

97.6

95.7

96.7

0-1

2-2

Big Ten Averages

111.0

110.4

110.6

110.6

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Marshall

93.6

93.1

94.8

93.8

0-0

2-1

Florida Atlantic

90.5

89.8

91.2

90.5

0-0

2-2

Middle Tennessee

90.6

89.7

90.7

90.3

0-0

1-2

Florida Int’l.

89.1

88.7

89.2

89.0

0-2

1-3

Charlotte

87.7

88.4

88.2

88.1

0-0

2-2

Western Kentucky

86.5

87.2

87.8

87.1

1-0

1-2

Old Dominion

79.8

80.3

80.2

80.1

0-0

1-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

North Texas

94.9

94.5

95.9

95.1

1-0

2-2

Southern Miss.

95.2

93.0

95.5

94.6

0-0

2-2

Louisiana Tech

91.5

91.3

91.7

91.5

1-0

3-1

U A B

87.8

89.7

88.5

88.7

0-0

3-0

Rice

80.0

81.5

79.3

80.3

0-0

0-4

Texas-San Antonio

74.3

76.5

73.9

74.9

0-1

1-3

U T E P

67.1

72.5

67.7

69.1

0-0

1-2

CUSA Averages

86.3

86.9

86.8

86.7

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

121.0

119.0

121.2

120.4

x

2-1

Army

101.2

101.3

100.8

101.1

x

3-1

BYU

100.9

100.9

101.0

100.9

x

2-2

Liberty

88.7

89.9

89.1

89.2

x

2-2

New Mexico St.

77.0

79.4

76.8

77.7

x

0-4

Massachusetts

65.3

67.6

64.3

65.7

x

0-4

Indep. Averages

92.3

93.0

92.2

92.5

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

93.5

92.6

94.4

93.5

0-0

1-3

Buffalo

89.0

89.6

89.9

89.5

0-0

2-2

Kent St.

88.1

88.1

88.6

88.3

1-0

2-2

Miami (Ohio)

87.9

86.0

88.0

87.3

0-0

1-3

Akron

76.1

76.3

75.5

75.9

0-1

0-4

Bowling Green

72.1

71.8

71.9

72.0

0-1

1-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

100.4

99.2

100.4

100.0

0-0

2-2

Northern Illinois

93.9

92.8

94.0

93.6

0-0

1-2

Toledo

91.9

92.3

92.7

92.3

0-0

2-1

Eastern Michigan

89.5

89.9

90.2

89.9

0-0

3-1

Ball St.

87.0

86.5

86.7

86.7

0-0

1-3

Central Michigan

81.1

81.9

81.4

81.4

1-0

2-2

MAC Averages

87.5

87.3

87.8

87.5

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Utah St.

106.3

105.3

107.7

106.4

1-0

2-1

Boise St.

106.2

105.5

106.5

106.1

1-0

4-0

Air Force

97.8

99.0

98.7

98.5

0-1

2-1

Wyoming

95.2

97.2

95.6

96.0

0-0

3-1

New Mexico

82.0

85.1

81.0

82.7

0-0

2-1

Colorado St.

80.1

84.0

80.3

81.5

0-0

1-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Fresno St.

99.7

100.3

100.4

100.1

0-0

1-2

San Diego St.

97.9

99.6

97.8

98.4

0-1

3-1

Hawaii

95.7

97.3

94.9

96.0

0-0

3-1

Nevada

90.8

92.6

90.4

91.3

0-0

3-1

U N L V

85.1

87.2

85.1

85.8

0-0

1-2

San Jose St.

85.3

87.3

84.6

85.7

0-0

2-1

MWC Averages

93.5

95.0

93.6

94.0

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

1-0

3-1

Washington

113.6

113.1

114.7

113.8

0-1

3-1

Washington St.

112.8

112.0

113.1

112.6

0-1

3-1

California

107.6

107.5

108.9

108.0

1-0

4-0

Stanford

105.0

104.0

104.8

104.6

0-2

1-3

Oregon St.

95.5

96.8

94.3

95.5

0-0

1-2

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

116.5

114.8

116.7

116.0

0-1

3-1

U S C

107.1

108.1

107.6

107.6

2-0

3-1

Arizona St.

107.0

106.2

107.6

107.0

0-1

3-1

Arizona

102.5

102.7

102.8

102.7

0-0

2-1

Colorado

99.5

99.4

99.6

99.5

1-0

3-1

U C L A

98.9

98.5

97.8

98.4

1-0

1-3

Pac-12 Averages

106.8

106.6

107.1

106.9

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

127.7

126.0

128.3

127.3

1-0

4-0

Florida

121.4

118.5

120.8

120.2

2-0

4-0

Missouri

116.3

113.9

116.6

115.6

1-0

3-1

South Carolina

110.8

109.0

110.4

110.1

0-2

1-3

Kentucky

107.5

106.0

106.0

106.5

0-2

2-2

Tennessee

105.0

104.8

103.2

104.3

0-1

1-3

Vanderbilt

102.6

101.3

101.3

101.7

0-2

0-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

136.1

132.5

137.2

135.2

1-0

4-0

L S U

126.5

123.9

125.5

125.3

1-0

4-0

Auburn

119.2

117.4

118.8

118.5

1-0

4-0

Texas A&M

118.3

116.6

117.0

117.3

0-1

2-2

Mississippi St.

115.2

111.2

114.8

113.7

1-0

3-1

Ole Miss

102.0

101.1

101.1

101.4

1-0

2-2

Arkansas

95.5

96.4

94.7

95.6

0-1

2-2

SEC Averages

114.6

112.7

114.0

113.8

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

105.3

103.7

104.8

104.6

0-0

3-0

Georgia Southern

96.6

95.9

96.0

96.2

0-0

1-2

Troy

95.8

96.1

94.9

95.6

0-0

2-1

Coastal Carolina

86.4

87.8

85.7

86.6

0-0

3-1

Georgia St.

85.8

87.1

84.9

85.9

0-1

2-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

98.7

98.9

98.5

98.7

0-0

3-1

Arkansas St.

91.0

91.1

90.7

90.9

0-0

2-2

Louisiana-Monroe

87.6

88.3

87.6

87.8

0-0

1-2

Texas St.

83.0

83.9

82.8

83.2

1-0

1-3

South Alabama

73.1

76.2

72.0

73.8

0-0

1-3

SBC Averages

90.3

90.9

89.8

90.3

 

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

SEC

113.8

2

BTen

110.6

3

B12

109.1

4

P12

106.9

5

ACC

105.3

6

AAC

96.4

7

MWC

94.0

8

Ind

92.5

9

SUN

90.3

10

MAC

87.5

11

CUSA

86.7

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Boise St.

2

Memphis

3

SMU

4

UAB

5

Navy

 

Bowl & Playoff Projections

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Eastern Michigan

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Utah St.]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Navy

Troy

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

Nevada

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Memphis

Ohio

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Buffalo

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Hawaii

USC

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Central Florida

UAB

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Houston

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Western Michigan]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Duke

Indiana

Military

ACC

AAC

Pittsburgh

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Syracuse

Nebraska

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

Kentucky

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

California

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

TCU

Arizona St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Virginia

Kansas St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Boise St.

Auburn

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

North Texas

[Fresno St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington St.

Minnesota

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Colorado]

North Carolina St.

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Notre Dame

LSU

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

[Army]

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia Tech

Oregon

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Baylor

[Boston College]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

Utah

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Iowa

Florida

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Texas A&M

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Wisconsin

Washington

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Cincinnati

[Miami (Fla.)]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Mississippi St.

Michigan St.

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Miami (O)

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Purdue

Air Force

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Toledo

Georgia Southern

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Oklahoma

Ohio St.

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Clemson

Champsionship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Key Games This Week

 

 

Memphis vs. Navy: The winner of this game will have a leg up in the AAC West, and with Central Florida losing at Pitt, there is a possibility that the Western Division champion could win the Conference Championship Game and have a shot at the New Year’s Six Bowl Bid.  Memphis has never been in a major bowl, although they had a team that should have gotten one in 1963, when the Tigers finished 9-0-1 and tied undefeated Ole Miss.  Navy has been in five major bowls, winning the Sugar Bowl in 1955 and the Orange Bowl in 1958, while losing the Cotton Bowl in 1963, when it was for a shot at the National Championship.

California vs. Arizona St.: Had Arizona State beaten Colorado Saturday, this would have been the top game of the day.  Cal is the last undefeated team in the Pac-12, and even if the Bears were to somehow run the table, they have little chance of making the Playoffs.  Still, this is a key game for the West Coast, as the more Cal continues to win, the better off for the Conference of Champions.

Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan: The winner of this game definitely has a path to bowl eligibility.  If CMU wins this game, Jim McElwain will start getting some notice as a potential Power 5 School head coach, because the Chippewas were picked to finish in last place in the MAC West.

Miami (Ohio) vs. Buffalo: The Bulls didn’t just upset Temple Saturday; they pummeled the Owls into submission.  Miami should have done what Indiana did under Lee Corso many years ago–The Wacky Hoosiers’ coach called time out in 1976 just to take a team picture under the scoreboard when his team led the Buckeyes 7-6.  Miami led Ohio State 5-0 in the first quarter.  Corso’s Hoosiers lost their game 47-7.  Miami lost 76-5.  Still, the Redhawks have a shot at bowl eligibility, but they may have to uspet Buffalo to get there.  This is a perfect sandwich game for Buffalo, as they have Ohio U next week.

Florida St. vs. North Carolina St: Two weeks ago, Willie Taggart was sledding on thin ice at Florida State.  After a win over Louisville, the Seminoles are 2-2, and a win over NC State just might lead the Seminoles on a path to bowl eligibility.  Taggart has always had slow turnarounds.  He did so at Western Kentucky and at South Florida.  He was only at Oregon for a season, and this is just year two in Tallahassee.  If the fans and boosters give him a little more time, he will turn the FSU program back into a top tier program.  Dave Doeren has done a credible job in Raleigh with the Wolfpack, but this is looking like a slight down year for NC St.  The winner of this game will get to bowl eligibility.

Baylor vs. Iowa St.: The winner of this game remains a contender for one of the two Big 12 Championship Game spots.  Baylor has yet to play up to its potential to this point of the season.  They have the talent to win double-digit games this year, but they could lose the next two if they don’t bring their “A-game” to this week’s and next week’s games.  Iowa St. took their frustrations out on a Louisiana-Monroe team that isn’t as bad as the 72-20 loss indicates.  This game should be one of the most entertaining games of the weekend.  

Purdue vs. Minnesota: The winner of this game stays in contention for a bowl game.  If Minnesota wins on the road, then the Gophers will have a chance to start the season 8-0 before Penn State comes to Minneapolis.  Purdue must win this game, or the Boilermakers will not have a path to 6-6.

Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana: Why do we call this a key game?  These two teams are stronger than you realize.  The Ragin’ Cajuns just trounced Ohio in Athens, while Georgia Southern is hiding in ambush at 1-2 with losses to undefeated Minnesota and unbelievable LSU.  The Eagles had an extra week to prepare for this game, while UL may be looking forward to their game with Appy State the following week.  The winner of this game will most definitely play a 13th game and maybe even a 14th game.

Utah vs. Washington St.: The loser of this game will have a two-game losing streak, after the two teams lost to the Los Angeles teams.  Utah’s loss at USC was surprising but not shocking.  If you didn’t stay up and watch the Washington State-UCLA game, you might not believe that Washington State scored 63 points.  Quarterback Anthony Gordon threw for 570 yards and nine touchdowns. However, it wasn’t good enough.  UCLA scored 67 points and came from 25 points down to pull off one of the most incredible upsets of the season.  The Bruins had scored 14 points in each of their first three games.  The winner of this game stays in contention for their division title, while the loser is looking at a December bowl.

Nevada vs. Hawaii: This game is for first place in the MAC West.  Hawaii usually plays much better at home than on the road, and playing in Reno gives Nevada a larger than normal home field advantage.  Nevada still has road games with Utah State, Wyoming, San Diego State, and Fresno State.  This is a must win game for the Wolf Pack if they are to make it to the MAC Championship Game.  A Rainbow Warrior win in this game, and it could be lights out for the rest of the division.

Oklahoma St. vs. Kansas St.: Chris Klieman came to the Little Apple having won back to back FCS National Championships at North Dakota State.  He has a personal winning streak of 24 games.  Kansas State had the week off after winning at Mississippi State, and now they entertain the Cowboys, who are coming off a tough loss at Texas.  If KSU wins this game in Stillwater, they then play three consecutive home games against three top contenders.  If Okie St. wins, then they stay in contention for the Big 12 Championship Game.

Auburn vs. Mississippi St.: It’s hard to think about a division game with a potential New Years’s Day Bowl participant as a potential sandwich game, but Auburn faces the Bulldogs between road games against Texas A&M and Florida.  This is the perfect chance for Mississippi State to pull off a big upset.  Auburn may not have enough offensive firepower to exploit State’s vulnerabilities on defense.  Of course, the Tiger defensive line is strong enough to hold the Bullies to less than 17 points, and Auburn will score 20 or more in this game.

Nebraska vs. Ohio St.: The last time the Buckeyes came to Lincoln, Nebraska suffered one of its most devastating home losses ever, losing 56-14.  Last year in Columbus, Nebraska came very close to pulling off the big upset.  Can the Cornhuskers have a shot in this game?  Last year’s Ohio State team was struggling a little bit when Nebraska played at the Horseshoe.  The Ohio State offense should make this game look more like the 2017 game in Lincoln.

Washington vs. USC: If the Trojans can leave Seattle with a win this weekend, Clay Helton might be able to begin to think about renewing his satellite TV subscription at his SoCal home for 2020.  A loss might put UW two games behind Cal, which would almost eliminate the Huskies from the North Division title race.  So, this is a must-win game for UW.

Note: Some of you (several somes of you) have contacted us through our other site wanting to know more information about the “Sharps” that are friends of the PiRate Ratings.  In Friday’s post here, we gave out a 5-game money line parlay with +250 odds that we inferred based on information given to us by one of our friends in Nevada.

So, the parlay won in theory.  If you did not heed our warning and actually played this one, you too won big on Saturday.

Unfortunately, this will not be a recurring thing here.  We cannot reveal the information we receive from Vegas, because the Sharps playing these parlays also have a service where they charge for their advice.  The specific Sharp that gave us this pick has asked not to be identified, and we are fine with that.  After all, we do not condone actual betting of money on sporting events.  Whether this parlay won or not, we were guaranteed not to win or lose, since we did not play it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 15, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 16, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday

September 19

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Tulane

Houston

7.1

6.3

4.7

 

Friday

September 20

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

La. Tech

Florida Int’l.

3.9

3.8

3.6

USC

Utah

-6.3

-3.8

-6.1

Boise St.

Air Force

10.8

9.0

10.4

 

Saturday

September 21

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida

Tennessee

16.0

13.6

16.9

Indiana

Connecticut

35.9

29.9

35.8

Rutgers

Boston College

-5.2

-5.0

-6.0

Syracuse

Western Mich.

6.2

6.6

5.8

Alabama

Southern Miss.

43.5

42.0

44.3

Iowa St.

UL-Monroe

22.3

21.8

21.9

Northwestern

Michigan St.

-3.7

-4.1

-5.0

Ole Miss

California

-2.4

-3.0

-4.6

Vanderbilt

LSU

-21.1

-19.5

-21.0

Wisconsin

Michigan

0.5

2.3

0.1

Massachusetts

Coastal Car.

-13.5

-12.2

-13.4

Ohio

Louisiana

3.7

2.4

5.6

Akron

Troy

-14.3

-14.3

-13.6

Buffalo

Temple

-15.1

-13.4

-15.5

Florida St.

Louisville

9.4

10.1

9.9

North Carolina

Appy St.

-0.4

2.1

1.6

Ohio St.

Miami (O)

40.6

40.8

40.9

Pittsburgh

Central Fla.

-3.1

-2.6

-4.9

TCU

SMU

4.3

8.2

3.9

Texas A&M

Auburn

5.0

5.3

4.6

Tulsa

Wyoming

0.0

-1.8

0.1

UAB

S. Alabama

12.0

10.4

13.6

BYU

Washington

-8.3

-7.7

-9.2

Kent St.

Bowling Green

11.4

11.5

11.7

Miami (Fla.)

Central Mich.

35.7

33.8

36.6

Mississippi St.

Kentucky

10.0

6.9

10.7

Missouri

South Carolina

5.7

4.7

6.0

Kansas

West Virginia

-5.7

-4.3

-5.5

New Mexico

New Mexico St.

6.4

7.5

6.1

N. Carolina St.

Ball St.

18.8

19.3

19.7

Virginia

Old Dominion

32.6

32.7

32.5

Rice

Baylor

-31.7

-30.5

-32.3

Stanford

Oregon

-8.2

-9.2

-9.5

Texas St.

Georgia St.

-0.5

-0.9

0.4

Clemson

Charlotte

48.5

44.4

48.8

Arkansas

San Jose St.

18.6

17.4

18.9

North Texas

UTSA

18.1

15.0

19.3

Texas

Oklahoma St.

5.1

4.5

5.3

Georgia

Notre Dame

9.3

9.6

9.7

Illinois

Nebraska

-6.4

-6.9

-7.0

UTEP

Nevada

-21.9

-18.1

-21.3

Arizona St.

Colorado

10.6

9.8

11.1

Colorado St.

Toledo

-9.1

-5.3

-10.4

San Diego St.

Utah St.

-5.4

-2.2

-6.9

Washington St.

UCLA

16.8

16.4

18.3

 

FBS vs. FCS

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Army

Morgan St.

41

Wake Forest

Elon

30

Eastern Michigan

Central Conn.

31

Florida Atlantic

Wagner

35

Liberty

Hampton

29

East Carolina

William & Mary

16

Arkansas St.

Southern Illinois

22

Fresno St.

Sacramento St.

30

Hawaii

Central Arkansas

20

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Alabama

135.9

132.3

137.0

135.0

2

Clemson

134.5

131.2

135.4

133.7

3

Ohio St.

128.7

127.1

129.2

128.3

4

Georgia

127.5

125.8

128.1

127.1

5

L S U

126.0

123.3

124.8

124.7

6

Oklahoma

122.3

121.4

122.2

122.0

7

Notre Dame

121.2

119.2

121.4

120.6

8

Michigan

119.6

117.5

119.9

119.0

9

Florida

119.9

117.1

119.1

118.7

10

Texas A&M

119.4

117.8

118.3

118.5

11

Wisconsin

117.1

116.8

117.0

117.0

12

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

13

Auburn

117.4

115.5

116.8

116.6

14

Utah

116.5

114.8

116.7

116.0

15

Michigan St.

116.1

115.6

116.3

116.0

16

Penn St.

116.4

115.3

116.0

115.9

17

Iowa

115.7

113.7

115.8

115.0

18

Missouri

114.9

112.3

115.0

114.1

19

Washington

113.6

113.1

114.7

113.8

20

Mississippi St.

115.0

110.7

114.4

113.4

21

Washington St.

112.8

112.0

113.1

112.6

22

Central Florida

112.1

111.3

113.5

112.3

23

Texas

112.3

112.3

112.2

112.3

24

Baylor

111.9

112.1

111.6

111.9

25

Kansas St.

111.8

111.5

111.8

111.7

26

South Carolina

112.2

110.6

112.0

111.6

27

Miami (Fla.)

110.4

109.5

111.5

110.5

28

Oklahoma St.

110.2

110.9

109.9

110.3

29

Iowa St.

110.2

110.4

109.9

110.2

30

Northwestern

109.9

109.0

108.8

109.2

31

Virginia

108.9

109.4

109.1

109.1

32

Minnesota

109.4

108.7

108.0

108.7

33

Maryland

109.1

108.5

108.3

108.6

34

California

107.6

107.5

108.9

108.0

35

U S C

107.1

108.1

107.6

107.6

36

Kentucky

108.0

106.8

106.7

107.2

37

Nebraska

106.7

108.0

106.3

107.0

38

Arizona St.

107.0

106.2

107.6

107.0

39

T C U

105.2

108.8

105.7

106.6

40

Utah St.

106.3

105.1

107.7

106.3

41

Indiana

107.3

105.4

106.0

106.2

42

Tennessee

106.8

106.5

105.2

106.2

43

Boise St.

106.1

105.4

106.4

106.0

44

Pittsburgh

106.0

105.6

105.6

105.7

45

Purdue

105.5

105.5

105.0

105.3

46

Texas Tech

105.6

105.8

104.6

105.3

47

Memphis

105.0

104.8

106.1

105.3

48

Duke

105.2

104.7

105.1

105.0

49

Syracuse

105.2

104.6

105.0

104.9

50

Cincinnati

105.1

103.5

105.2

104.6

51

Stanford

105.0

104.0

104.8

104.6

52

West Virginia

104.6

104.2

104.2

104.3

53

Appalachian St.

105.2

103.3

104.4

104.3

54

Wake Forest

103.9

103.4

104.5

103.9

55

Virginia Tech

103.4

103.6

103.7

103.6

56

North Carolina

102.8

103.4

104.0

103.4

57

Temple

103.3

102.3

104.5

103.4

58

Arizona

102.5

102.7

102.8

102.7

59

Vanderbilt

103.4

102.2

102.3

102.6

60

North Carolina St.

102.4

102.3

102.9

102.5

61

Florida St.

102.4

102.7

102.2

102.5

62

BYU

102.3

102.4

102.5

102.4

63

SMU

102.0

101.5

102.8

102.1

64

Western Michigan

102.0

100.9

102.2

101.7

65

Ole Miss

102.3

101.5

101.3

101.7

66

Army

101.5

101.6

101.1

101.4

67

Boston College

100.5

100.3

100.9

100.6

68

Tulane

100.2

100.6

100.6

100.5

69

Fresno St.

100.0

100.6

100.7

100.4

70

Colorado

99.5

99.4

99.6

99.5

71

Air Force

98.2

99.4

99.1

98.9

72

San Diego St.

97.9

99.8

97.8

98.5

73

Arkansas

98.3

99.2

97.7

98.4

74

U C L A

98.9

98.5

97.8

98.4

75

Houston

96.1

97.3

98.9

97.4

76

Illinois

97.2

98.1

96.2

97.2

77

Ohio

96.6

95.6

97.9

96.7

78

Wyoming

95.4

97.6

96.0

96.3

79

Kansas

95.9

96.9

95.7

96.2

80

Georgia Southern

96.4

95.7

95.8

96.0

81

Hawaii

95.7

97.3

94.9

96.0

82

Louisiana

95.9

96.2

95.3

95.8

83

Louisville

96.1

95.7

95.3

95.7

84

Oregon St.

95.5

96.8

94.3

95.5

85

Georgia Tech

95.7

93.8

96.2

95.2

86

Southern Miss.

95.4

93.2

95.7

94.8

87

Troy

94.5

94.7

93.4

94.2

88

Marshall

93.4

92.9

94.6

93.6

89

Northern Illinois

93.7

92.6

93.8

93.4

90

North Texas

92.8

92.1

93.7

92.9

91

Tulsa

92.4

92.9

93.1

92.8

92

Toledo

92.1

92.3

93.2

92.5

93

Rutgers

92.3

92.3

91.9

92.2

94

Nevada

91.3

93.0

91.1

91.8

95

South Florida

91.0

92.0

91.3

91.4

96

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.4

91.0

91.2

97

Louisiana-Monroe

90.8

91.6

91.0

91.1

98

Eastern Michigan

90.7

91.1

91.4

91.1

99

Louisiana Tech

91.0

90.7

91.0

90.9

100

Navy

89.8

92.8

89.6

90.8

101

Florida Atlantic

90.4

89.7

91.1

90.4

102

Middle Tennessee

90.4

89.5

90.5

90.1

103

Florida Int’l.

89.6

89.3

89.9

89.6

104

Miami (Ohio)

90.1

88.3

90.4

89.6

105

Liberty

88.5

89.7

88.9

89.0

106

Charlotte

88.1

88.8

88.6

88.5

107

Western Kentucky

86.3

87.0

87.6

86.9

108

U A B

85.7

87.4

86.3

86.5

109

Ball St.

86.6

86.0

86.1

86.2

110

Buffalo

85.8

86.4

86.5

86.2

111

Georgia St.

85.9

87.2

84.9

86.0

112

U N L V

84.9

87.0

84.9

85.6

113

Kent St.

85.3

85.2

85.6

85.4

114

Coastal Carolina

84.1

85.3

83.2

84.2

115

Texas St.

82.9

83.8

82.8

83.2

116

San Jose St.

82.8

84.8

81.9

83.2

117

New Mexico

82.2

85.5

81.4

83.1

118

East Carolina

82.2

84.3

81.7

82.7

119

Colorado St.

79.9

84.0

79.8

81.2

120

Rice

78.7

80.1

77.8

78.9

121

Central Michigan

77.8

78.7

77.9

78.1

122

Old Dominion

77.8

78.2

78.0

78.0

123

Akron

77.7

78.0

77.3

77.6

124

Texas-San Antonio

76.7

79.2

76.4

77.4

125

New Mexico St.

76.8

79.0

76.4

77.4

126

South Alabama

75.2

78.5

74.2

76.0

127

Bowling Green

75.9

75.7

75.9

75.9

128

Connecticut

74.4

78.5

73.2

75.4

129

U T E P

66.9

72.4

67.3

68.8

130

Massachusetts

68.1

70.6

67.3

68.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

112.1

111.3

113.5

112.3

0-0

3-0

Cincinnati

105.1

103.5

105.2

104.6

0-0

2-1

Temple

103.3

102.3

104.5

103.4

0-0

2-0

South Florida

91.0

92.0

91.3

91.4

0-0

1-2

East Carolina

82.2

84.3

81.7

82.7

0-1

1-2

Connecticut

74.4

78.5

73.2

75.4

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

105.0

104.8

106.1

105.3

0-0

3-0

SMU

102.0

101.5

102.8

102.1

0-0

3-0

Tulane

100.2

100.6

100.6

100.5

0-0

2-1

Houston

96.1

97.3

98.9

97.4

0-0

1-2

Tulsa

92.4

92.9

93.1

92.8

0-0

1-2

Navy

89.8

92.8

89.6

90.8

1-0

2-0

AAC Averages

96.1

96.8

96.7

96.6

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

134.5

131.2

135.4

133.7

2-0

3-0

Syracuse

105.2

104.6

105.0

104.9

0-1

1-2

Wake Forest

103.9

103.4

104.5

103.9

0-0

3-0

North Carolina St.

102.4

102.3

102.9

102.5

0-0

2-1

Florida St.

102.4

102.7

102.2

102.5

0-1

1-2

Boston College

100.5

100.3

100.9

100.6

1-0

2-1

Louisville

96.1

95.7

95.3

95.7

0-0

2-1

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

110.4

109.5

111.5

110.5

0-1

1-2

Virginia

108.9

109.4

109.1

109.1

2-0

3-0

Pittsburgh

106.0

105.6

105.6

105.7

0-1

1-2

Duke

105.2

104.7

105.1

105.0

0-0

2-1

Virginia Tech

103.4

103.6

103.7

103.6

0-1

2-1

North Carolina

102.8

103.4

104.0

103.4

1-0

2-1

Georgia Tech

95.7

93.8

96.2

95.2

0-1

1-2

ACC Averages

105.5

105.0

105.8

105.5

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

122.3

121.4

122.2

122.0

0-0

3-0

Texas

112.3

112.3

112.2

112.3

0-0

2-1

Baylor

111.9

112.1

111.6

111.9

0-0

2-0

Kansas St.

111.8

111.5

111.8

111.7

0-0

3-0

Oklahoma St.

110.2

110.9

109.9

110.3

0-0

3-0

Iowa St.

110.2

110.4

109.9

110.2

0-0

1-1

T C U

105.2

108.8

105.7

106.6

0-0

2-0

Texas Tech

105.6

105.8

104.6

105.3

0-0

2-1

West Virginia

104.6

104.2

104.2

104.3

0-0

2-1

Kansas

95.9

96.9

95.7

96.2

0-0

2-1

Big 12 Averages

109.0

109.4

108.8

109.1

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

128.7

127.1

129.2

128.3

1-0

3-0

Michigan

119.6

117.5

119.9

119.0

0-0

2-0

Michigan St.

116.1

115.6

116.3

116.0

0-0

2-1

Penn St.

116.4

115.3

116.0

115.9

0-0

3-0

Maryland

109.1

108.5

108.3

108.6

0-0

2-1

Indiana

107.3

105.4

106.0

106.2

0-1

2-1

Rutgers

92.3

92.3

91.9

92.2

0-1

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

117.1

116.8

117.0

117.0

0-0

2-0

Iowa

115.7

113.7

115.8

115.0

1-0

3-0

Northwestern

109.9

109.0

108.8

109.2

0-0

1-1

Minnesota

109.4

108.7

108.0

108.7

0-0

3-0

Nebraska

106.7

108.0

106.3

107.0

0-0

2-1

Purdue

105.5

105.5

105.0

105.3

0-0

1-2

Illinois

97.2

98.1

96.2

97.2

0-0

2-1

Big Ten Averages

110.8

110.1

110.3

110.4

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Marshall

93.4

92.9

94.6

93.6

0-0

2-1

Florida Atlantic

90.4

89.7

91.1

90.4

0-0

1-2

Middle Tennessee

90.4

89.5

90.5

90.1

0-0

1-2

Florida Int’l.

89.6

89.3

89.9

89.6

0-1

1-2

Charlotte

88.1

88.8

88.6

88.5

0-0

2-1

Western Kentucky

86.3

87.0

87.6

86.9

1-0

1-2

Old Dominion

77.8

78.2

78.0

78.0

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

95.4

93.2

95.7

94.8

0-0

2-1

North Texas

92.8

92.1

93.7

92.9

0-0

1-2

Louisiana Tech

91.0

90.7

91.0

90.9

0-0

2-1

U A B

85.7

87.4

86.3

86.5

0-0

2-0

Rice

78.7

80.1

77.8

78.9

0-0

0-3

Texas-San Antonio

76.7

79.2

76.4

77.4

0-0

1-2

U T E P

66.9

72.4

67.3

68.8

0-0

1-1

CUSA Averages

85.9

86.5

86.3

86.2

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

121.2

119.2

121.4

120.6

x

2-0

BYU

102.3

102.4

102.5

102.4

x

2-1

Army

101.5

101.6

101.1

101.4

x

2-1

Liberty

88.5

89.7

88.9

89.0

x

1-2

New Mexico St.

76.8

79.0

76.4

77.4

x

0-3

Massachusetts

68.1

70.6

67.3

68.7

x

0-3

Indep. Averages

93.1

93.7

92.9

93.2

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

96.6

95.6

97.9

96.7

0-0

1-2

Miami (Ohio)

90.1

88.3

90.4

89.6

0-0

1-2

Buffalo

85.8

86.4

86.5

86.2

0-0

1-2

Kent St.

85.3

85.2

85.6

85.4

0-0

1-2

Akron

77.7

78.0

77.3

77.6

0-1

0-3

Bowling Green

75.9

75.7

75.9

75.9

0-0

1-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

102.0

100.9

102.2

101.7

0-0

2-1

Northern Illinois

93.7

92.6

93.8

93.4

0-0

1-2

Toledo

92.1

92.3

93.2

92.5

0-0

1-1

Eastern Michigan

90.7

91.1

91.4

91.1

0-0

2-1

Ball St.

86.6

86.0

86.1

86.2

0-0

1-2

Central Michigan

77.8

78.7

77.9

78.1

1-0

2-1

MAC Averages

87.9

87.6

88.2

87.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Utah St.

106.3

105.1

107.7

106.3

0-0

1-1

Boise St.

106.1

105.4

106.4

106.0

0-0

3-0

Air Force

98.2

99.4

99.1

98.9

0-0

2-0

Wyoming

95.4

97.6

96.0

96.3

0-0

3-0

New Mexico

82.2

85.5

81.4

83.1

0-0

1-1

Colorado St.

79.9

84.0

79.8

81.2

0-0

1-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Fresno St.

100.0

100.6

100.7

100.4

0-0

0-2

San Diego St.

97.9

99.8

97.8

98.5

0-0

3-0

Hawaii

95.7

97.3

94.9

96.0

0-0

2-1

Nevada

91.3

93.0

91.1

91.8

0-0

2-1

U N L V

84.9

87.0

84.9

85.6

0-0

1-2

San Jose St.

82.8

84.8

81.9

83.2

0-0

1-1

MWC Averages

93.4

95.0

93.5

93.9

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

0-0

2-1

Washington

113.6

113.1

114.7

113.8

0-1

2-1

Washington St.

112.8

112.0

113.1

112.6

0-0

3-0

California

107.6

107.5

108.9

108.0

1-0

3-0

Stanford

105.0

104.0

104.8

104.6

0-1

1-2

Oregon St.

95.5

96.8

94.3

95.5

0-0

1-2

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

116.5

114.8

116.7

116.0

0-0

3-0

U S C

107.1

108.1

107.6

107.6

1-0

2-1

Arizona St.

107.0

106.2

107.6

107.0

0-0

3-0

Arizona

102.5

102.7

102.8

102.7

0-0

2-1

Colorado

99.5

99.4

99.6

99.5

0-0

2-1

U C L A

98.9

98.5

97.8

98.4

0-0

0-3

Pac-12 Averages

106.8

106.6

107.1

106.9

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

127.5

125.8

128.1

127.1

1-0

3-0

Florida

119.9

117.1

119.1

118.7

1-0

3-0

Missouri

114.9

112.3

115.0

114.1

0-0

2-1

South Carolina

112.2

110.6

112.0

111.6

0-1

1-2

Kentucky

108.0

106.8

106.7

107.2

0-1

2-1

Tennessee

106.8

106.5

105.2

106.2

0-0

1-2

Vanderbilt

103.4

102.2

102.3

102.6

0-1

0-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.9

132.3

137.0

135.0

1-0

3-0

L S U

126.0

123.3

124.8

124.7

0-0

3-0

Texas A&M

119.4

117.8

118.3

118.5

0-0

2-1

Auburn

117.4

115.5

116.8

116.6

0-0

3-0

Mississippi St.

115.0

110.7

114.4

113.4

0-0

2-1

Ole Miss

102.3

101.5

101.3

101.7

1-0

2-1

Arkansas

98.3

99.2

97.7

98.4

0-1

2-1

SEC Averages

114.8

113.0

114.2

114.0

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

105.2

103.3

104.4

104.3

0-0

2-0

Georgia Southern

96.4

95.7

95.8

96.0

0-0

1-2

Troy

94.5

94.7

93.4

94.2

0-0

1-1

Georgia St.

85.9

87.2

84.9

86.0

0-0

2-1

Coastal Carolina

84.1

85.3

83.2

84.2

0-0

2-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

95.9

96.2

95.3

95.8

0-0

2-1

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.4

91.0

91.2

0-0

1-2

Louisiana-Monroe

90.8

91.6

91.0

91.1

0-0

1-1

Texas St.

82.9

83.8

82.8

83.2

0-0

0-3

South Alabama

75.2

78.5

74.2

76.0

0-0

1-2

SBC Averages

90.2

90.8

89.6

90.2

 

Bowl & Playoff Projections

Once again this week, our fearless bowl projections show a lot of at-large teams needed to fill spots.  This week, the number is eight teams.  The Southeastern Conference is looking like an eight-bid league this year, and the league will most likely have 12 spots to fill.  With Alabama, Georgia, and LSU looking like teams that will play in New Year’s Six Bowls or Playoffs, and with Missouri not eligible for a bowl this year, there will probably be just five other bowl eligible teams in the premiere league in FBS Football.  Texas A&M, Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, and Kentucky should become bowl eligible, but Ole Miss, Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt don’t look like they have the strength to reach six wins.

The Big Ten might benefit by an extra bid if Indiana and Northwestern can get to 6-6.  Illinois, Rutgers, and Purdue look like they could supply a little fodder for the other 11 teams to pick up conference wins and allow 11 to become bowl eligible, when only 10 teams will have guaranteed bowl spots.  It figures that if any Big Ten team remains with at-large bowl bids available, the Big Ten will be at the top of the at-large lists.

The Mid-American, Mountain West, and Sun Belt Conferences look like they will have extra bowl eligible teams this year, but at this point of the season, some of these teams may be bowl eligible but not get an invitations.

Here’s our look at the Bowls and Playoffs this week.

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Miami (O)

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

Houston

[UAB]

Cure

AAC

SBC

[Western Michigan]

Troy

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

Fresno St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Memphis

Toledo

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Northern Illinois

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Arizona

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

North Texas

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Navy

Charlotte

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

SMU

Independence

ACC

SEC

Virginia Tech

[Army]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina St.

Northwestern

Military

ACC

AAC

Pittsburgh

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Maryland

Texas

Big 12

SEC

TCU

Mississippi St.

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona St.

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Iowa St.

[Hawaii]

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Virginia

Kansas St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Central Florida

California

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Louisiana Tech

[Nevada]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington St.

Minnesota

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Indiana]

Syracuse

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Notre Dame

LSU

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

Kentucky

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Miami (Fla.)

Oregon

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Baylor

[Wyoming]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

Washington

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Florida

Iowa

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Texas A&M

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Wisconsin

Utah

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Cincinnati

[Duke]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Auburn

Michigan St.

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Eastern Michigan

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Air Force

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Ohio

Georgia Southern

 

 

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Clemson

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Oklahoma

 

 

Champsionship

Fiesta

Peach

Alabama

Ohio St.

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 4, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 14: December 6-10, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Tennessee Jacksonville 0.6 0.9 0.3 39
Kansas City Baltimore 8.0 8.0 8.1 51
Houston Indianapolis 5.0 6.3 5.7 49.5
Cleveland Carolina -2.1 -1.4 -1.4 49
Green Bay Atlanta 2.6 3.3 2.6 49.5
Tampa Bay New Orleans -13.5 -13.5 -13.1 53.5
Buffalo N.Y. Jets 0.2 0.7 0.6 41
Miami New England -8.2 -9.2 -9.0 44.5
Chicago L.A. Rams -0.6 -1.3 0.0 52.5
Washington N.Y. Giants 1.8 0.9 1.4 44
San Francisco Denver -6.1 -6.1 -6.4 43
L.A. Chargers Cincinnati 13.3 13.9 14.2 47.5
Arizona Detroit -1.3 -1.5 -1.0 43
Dallas Philadelphia 4.1 4.3 4.4 41
Oakland Pittsburgh -12.8 -12.7 -12.6 46
Seattle Minnesota 4.8 4.9 5.8 44

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.9 106.4 106.4 106.2 22.5 9-3
Miami 94.7 94.3 94.4 94.4 22 6-6
N. Y. Jets 94.6 94.1 94.1 94.3 23.5 3-9
Buffalo 92.9 92.8 92.7 92.8 17.5 4-8
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 106.5 106.5 106.2 106.4 24.5 7-4-1
Baltimore 102.9 103.2 102.9 103.0 21 7-5
Cleveland 96.6 96.9 97.3 96.9 24.5 4-7-1
Cincinnati 94.3 94.4 93.9 94.2 23.5 5-7
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 102.8 103.1 103.6 103.1 24 9-3
Indianapolis 100.3 99.3 100.3 100.0 25.5 6-6
Jacksonville 98.8 98.5 98.6 98.6 19 4-8
Tennessee 96.9 96.8 96.4 96.7 20 6-6
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.9 108.2 108.0 108.0 30 10-2
LA Chargers 104.5 105.3 105.1 105.0 24 9-3
Denver 101.8 101.7 101.7 101.7 20.5 6-6
Oakland 90.7 90.8 90.6 90.7 21.5 2-10
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Dallas 101.9 102.0 101.7 101.9 19 7-5
Philadelphia 100.7 100.7 100.4 100.6 22 6-6
N.Y. Giants 96.3 96.5 96.6 96.5 22 4-8
Washington 96.2 95.4 96.0 95.9 22 6-6
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 104.2 104.2 105.0 104.5 23.5 8-4
Minnesota 102.4 102.4 102.1 102.3 21 6-5-1
Green Bay 99.1 99.5 98.7 99.1 24 4-7-1
Detroit 98.4 98.2 97.8 98.1 24.5 4-8
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 112.5 112.6 112.8 112.6 27.5 10-2
Carolina 101.3 100.8 101.1 101.1 24.5 6-6
Atlanta 99.5 99.2 99.1 99.2 25.5 4-8
Tampa Bay 96.0 96.1 96.7 96.3 26 5-7
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.9 108.4 108.1 108.1 29 11-1
Seattle 104.2 104.3 104.9 104.5 23 7-5
Arizona 94.6 94.2 94.3 94.4 18.5 3-9
San Francisco 93.2 93.1 92.8 93.0 22.5 2-10

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Houston
4 Pittsburgh
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Chicago
4 Philadelphia
5 Seattle
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
Houston over Baltimore
L.A. Chargers over Pittsburgh
Chicago over Minnesota
Philadelphia over Seattle

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Kansas City
New England over Houston
New Orleans over Chicago
L.A. Rams over Philadelphia

 

Conference Championship
L.A. Chargers over New England
L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over L.A. Chargers

 

 

November 13, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 11: November 15-19, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Seattle Green Bay 5.3 4.7 6.1 46.5
Detroit Carolina -1.3 -1.1 -1.8 51
Atlanta Dallas 3.7 3.5 4.1 45
Baltimore Cincinnati 9.3 9.3 9.2 45
Chicago Minnesota 4.2 3.7 5.0 45
New Orleans Philadelphia 13.0 13.1 14.0 50
Indianapolis Tennessee 1.6 0.3 2.0 45.5
Washington Houston 0.2 -0.6 0.2 45.5
N.Y. Giants Tampa Bay 3.4 3.6 3.2 47
L.A. Chargers Denver 6.7 7.8 7.7 44
Arizona Oakland 9.0 8.3 9.5 38.5
Jacksonville Pittsburgh -5.1 -5.8 -5.6 43.5
L.A. Rams * Kansas City -0.6 -0.2 -1.2 56.5
L. A. Rams Kansas City 2.4 2.8 1.8 56.5
* This is a neutral site game to be played in Mexico City

This game has now been moved back to LA due to unplayable field conditions in Mexico City.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.5 104.9 104.6 104.7 23 7-3
N. Y. Jets 94.6 94.0 94.3 94.3 23 3-7
Miami 94.5 94.1 94.2 94.2 22 5-5
Buffalo 92.3 92.2 91.9 92.1 17 3-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 107.5 107.7 107.6 107.6 24 6-2-1
Baltimore 103.0 103.3 102.9 103.1 21 4-5
Cincinnati 96.7 97.0 96.7 96.8 24 5-4
Cleveland 95.8 96.1 96.5 96.1 24 3-6-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 101.0 101.1 101.2 101.1 24 6-3
Tennessee 100.2 100.5 100.1 100.3 19 5-4
Jacksonville 99.4 99.0 99.1 99.1 19.5 3-6
Indianapolis 98.9 97.8 99.0 98.6 26.5 4-5
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.7 108.0 108.1 107.9 28.5 9-1
LA Chargers 103.3 104.1 103.7 103.7 23 7-2
Denver 99.2 98.8 98.5 98.8 21 3-6
Oakland 89.8 89.8 89.3 89.6 20 1-8
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 101.4 101.5 101.0 101.3 22 4-5
Dallas 99.9 99.8 99.3 99.7 19.5 4-5
Washington 98.7 97.9 98.9 98.5 21.5 6-3
N.Y. Giants 95.5 95.5 95.6 95.5 20.5 2-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 104.2 104.1 105.0 104.4 23.5 6-3
Minnesota 102.6 102.8 102.5 102.6 21.5 5-3-1
Green Bay 100.2 100.8 99.9 100.3 24.5 4-4-1
Detroit 98.9 98.8 98.6 98.8 26 3-6
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 111.4 111.6 112.0 111.7 28 8-1
Carolina 102.7 102.3 102.9 102.6 25 6-3
Atlanta 101.1 100.9 100.9 100.9 25.5 4-5
Tampa Bay 94.6 94.4 94.9 94.6 26.5 3-6
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.1 107.7 107.0 107.3 28 9-1
Seattle 102.5 102.5 103.0 102.7 22 4-5
Arizona 96.3 95.7 96.2 96.1 18.5 2-7
San Francisco 95.0 95.2 94.9 95.0 22.5 2-8

 

This Week’s NFL Playoff Projections

As we enter week 11, we add a look at current playoff standings if the season ended today.

Current Playoff Standings

AFC
1 Kansas City
2 Pittsburgh
3 New England
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Cincinnati

 

NFC
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Chicago
4 Washington
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Our Projections 

AFC Seeding
1 L.A. Chargers
2 Pittsburgh
3 New England
4 Houston
5 Kansas City
6 Tennessee

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Washington
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
New England over Tennessee
Houston over Kansas City
Chicago over Minnesota
Carolina over Washington

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Houston
Pittsburgh over New England
New Orleans over Carolina
L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championships
Pittsburgh over L.A. Chargers
New Orleans over L.A. Rams

 

Super Bowl 53
New Orleans over Pittsburgh

 

Can the New York Giants Pull Off The Nearly Impossible?

Prior to week 10, members of the New York Giants claimed to the media that they could win their final eight games and finish 9-7 and make the playoffs.  With a 1-7 record at the time of this statement, the chances of winning eight consecutive games and moving from last place to first place was so infinitesimal that the odds of winning the lottery were not much worse.

Yet, if the Giants were to win just one game in the first half of the schedule and then go undefeated in the second half of the schedule to win the division and make the playoffs, it would have precedent.  Yes, this has been done one time before in the post-merger era.

In fact, it was the first year of the merger between the NFL and former AFL.  In the AFC Central, the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers had moved from the former NFL Century Division along with Houston and Cincinnati.  Entering the season, Cleveland was the heavy favorite to breeze to the division title and the second pick to the Baltimore Colts (Which had moved from the NFL Coastal Division to the AFC East Division, as it was ridiculous for the Colts and Rams to be in the same division).  The Browns had advanced to the NFL Championship Game in 1969 and returned the bulk of their roster.

Pittsburgh had been the worst team in the NFL in 1969, going 1-13.  Still, the Steelers were expected to contend with a mediocre Houston Oilers team for second place in the division, but nobody expected either team to contend with Cleveland or for the newly created single Wildcard spot for the AFC.

And, then there was Cincinnati.  The Bengals had been in existence for just two seasons.  They were a dismal 3-11 in 1968, but in 1969, they had one fantastic rookie quarterback.  Greg Cook, a local hero who had been a star quarterback at Chillicothe High School and the University of Cincinnati, had been the Bengals’ first round pick in the  1969 draft.  Cook immediately won the starting quarterback job in training camp.  He was a gunslinger type passer, typical of the type of quarterback that made the AFL more exciting than the conservative NFL.  The Bengals, led by legendary coach Paul Brown, rarely threw short passes.  Their strategy was to stretch the field vertically to open up running lanes for their two starting running backs, halfback Paul Robinson fullback Jess Phillips.

Cook’s debut was similar to Pat Mahomes this year with the Chiefs.  In his very first game, the Bengals beat Miami thanks to two long touchdown passes from Cook to receiver Eric Crabtree.  Nobody thought too much of the game, since the Dolphins were also an expansion team that had yet to build up a decent roster.  In week two, Cincinnati hosted a San Diego Chargers team that was a contender for the AFL West title.  The Chargers were big favorites, and Cook once again hooked up for two long touchdown passes, one to Bob Trumpy and one to future head coach Bruce Coslet.

At 2-0, the Bengals picked up a little notice, but week three was going to obviously be their week for comeuppance.  The powerful Kansas City Chiefs with the best defense in AFL history were coming to the Queen City.  Cook would have no chance against the best defensive line in all of football, the line that would lead KC to the Super Bowl title in a few months.  Because of the great start, NBC made this their nationally televised AFL Game in the early time slot, and yours truly was perched in front of the big Zenith TV watching this game in all hopes that the new phenom could become another Joe Namath and Daryle Lamonica for the much “funner” AFL.

Cook once again opened this game with brilliant passing plays to set up his running backs.  After spotting the Chiefs a couple of field goals, Cook led the Bengals on a scoring drive that ended with a scoring pass to Crabtree.  The Bengals led 7-6, but their history was about to be changed forever.  In the second quarter, Cook dropped back to pass and faced a Chiefs’ blitz by the outside linebackers.  Chiefs’ outside linebacker Jim Lynch knocked Cook to the ground, forcing all his weight on Cook’s throwing shoulder.  Cook would later say he heard his shoulder pop, and he exited the game with intense pain.

The Bengals hung on to win behind back up QB and future head coach Sam Wyche.  They were an incredible 3-0 and led the AFL West over the Chiefs and Raiders.  However, their gunslinger was out of bullets for the next three weeks.  Had doctors been able to diagnose a torn rotator cuff, they would have held Cook out for the rest of the year, but 1969 was a different time.  Cook was expected to come back and play in four weeks, maybe even less if he felt strong enough to throw.

He came back two weeks later, because the Bengals could not move the ball without him in the lineup.  They failed at San Diego and fell to 3-1.  Cook wasn’t ready to face the second best defense in the league in the New York Jets.  He could not get any strength behind his passes, and the Jets’ pass rush forced him to throw quickly in fear of further hurting his shoulder.  He didn’t last a half.  He had to leave the game in the second quarter, and the Bengals lost to the Jets by 14.  It was a mistake for him to try to play, and his shoulder hurt worse than it had after the initial injury.

Cook was held out of play the next two weeks, and the Bengals looked more like the expansion team they were.  A weak Denver team pummeled them, and then the Chiefs punished them in a revenge match at Municipal Stadium in Kansas City.  The loss dropped the Bengals to 3-4 at the halfway mark.  Cincinnati would have to win out to have any chance of making the playoffs, and they had yet to play the powerhouse team of the league, the Oakland Raiders.

Oakland had yet to lose a game in 1969.  This Raiders’ team looked as strong if not stronger than the two previous teams that went 13-1 and 12-2.  At 6-0-1, Oakland led Kansas City by a half-game.  Once again, this was the nationally televised AFL game on NBC that week, and yours truly sat in front of the ole Zenith ready to route the silver and black to an easy victory.

Cook made his last hurrah in this game.  Brown showed his genius in this game.  He used his wideouts as decoys, sending them deep, while placing his tight ends to run intermediate routes over the middle.  Cook hit Trumpy over and over across the middle, setting up third receiver Chip Myers as a surprise.  The strategy worked, and thanks to the Bengals’ defense picking off a trio of Lamonica passes in the first half, Cinti led 24-0 at the half on way to an easy 31-17 victory.  It would be Oakland’s only loss of the season, and it would be the Bengals’ last win of the season.

Cook limped through the rest of the year unable to put any zip on the ball, and the Bengals finished 4-9-1 and in last place in the AFL West.  Prospects were still high for the Bengals, because after an off-season of rest Cook would be ready to return to form in 1970.

However, things did not go according to plan.  Cook never again regained his arm strength as his rotator cuff injury did not heal itself on its own.  He would never again start a game for the Bengals or anybody else.  He appeared briefly in one game four years later, but it was obvious that he would never again be an NFL quarterback.

The Bengals entered 1970 picked to finish in last place, because Sam Wyche was not the quarterback to lead a team to victory in the new AFC.  He didn’t have the arm accuracy of Cook, and he lacked the finesse to hit shorter passes with much success.  The Bengals would have to try to win by pounding the ball with Phillips, Robinson, and new addition Essex Johnson.

In week one, the Bengals pulled off their miracle for the season, or at least that’s what most sports fans believed.  The three running backs combined for 200 rushing yards, and Wyche even contributed with his legs, scoring a rushing touchdown.  Cincinnati upset Oakland once again.

Over the next six weeks, the Bengals performed exactly like they were expected to perform–miserably.  In their first interconference game in their history, Detroit ran over them like a fleet of automobiles leaving the plant.  The passing stats were plain awful–64 yards!  Losses piled up against Houston, Cleveland, Kansas City, Washington, and Pittsburgh.

At the halfway point of the season, Cleveland led the AFC Central with a disappointing 4-3 record.  As expected, Pittsburgh and Houston fought for second place.  The Steelers were 3-4, while the Oilers were 2-4-1.  The Bengals were 1-6, and it looked like a similar second half would give Cincinnati the chance to draft at the top of the 1970 Draft, where Jim Plunkett and Archie Manning were there for the taking.

The Bengals players refused to give up.  A smart future NFL legend was on the Brown’s staff, and he came to Brown with an idea.  Insert backup Virgil Carter at quarterback for Wyche.  Carter had flamed out in Chicago, where he was best when he turned and handed the ball to Gayle Sayers.  Carter had an accurate arm and rather quick ability to read defenses, but his arm strength limited the types of passes he could throw.  Anything longer than 20 yards downfield looked like a beach ball floating to defensive backs.

This intelligent assistant was Bill Walsh.  His idea was what we know today as the West Coast Offense, but it should have been called the Ohio River offense.  Walsh went to Brown with ideas to spread the field horizontally and use all 53 plus yards from sideline to sideline, which would also create holes for the backs to run through, and better yet, more defensive players would be out of position to make tackles if they were spread wide.

Carter had actually become the starting quarterback a few weeks earlier, but it wasn’t until the Bengals went to War Memorial Stadium in Buffalo that the new strategy was implemented.  At 3-4, the Bills were going nowhere, but they had a rookie running back that had to be stopped in O.J. Simpson.  The Bengals figured the best way to stop Simpson was to keep the ball out of Simpson’s hands.  They tried their new ball-control short passing strategy.  It had only mediocre success, but the Bengals’ defense and special teams scored three touchdowns and set up another, as Cincinnati rolled to a 43-14 victory to improve to 2-6.  Cleveland lost to Oakland to fall into a first place tie with Pittsburgh at 4-4, while Houston fell to 2-5-1.  The Bengals were still in last place, but there was a glimmer of hope just two games behind the co-leaders.

In week 9, Cleveland came to Riverfront Stadium in the most important game in the Bengals’ early franchise history.  With Pittsburgh having to play the Chiefs, there was a chance that Cincinnati could finish the day just one game behind the two co-leaders.

Of course, this meant that Cincinnati had to win against their bitter enemy, the team named for their own coach.  It was a cold and windy day, and long passes were not easy to attempt.  Cleveland QB Mike Phipps saw some early success, but he could do nothing else once the winds picked up.  The Bengals shut down Leroy Kelly, and after trailing 10-0, they slowly came back with their short passing game.  The biggest threat this day came off the passing game, but it did not necessarily come from the passes themselves.  Carter noticed that the Browns’ linebackers were dropping wide into the flat zones, as Cleveland tried to take away the short hook and out patterns.  It left a gaping hole in the middle of the field, and when the Browns rushed from the outside-in, it looked to Carter like he could have driven his car in the opening.  Carter actually topped 100 yards rushing for the only time in his career, and Cincinnati upset the Browns.

Pittsburgh lost to the Chiefs, while Houston lost again.  Now, the Browns and Steelers were tied at 4-5, while Cincnnati was 3-6 and Houston was 2-6-1.  The Bengals could see their opportunity.  They were all of a sudden the only hot team in the division.  They truly believed that they would keep winning.  Better yet, the schedule got easier from this point on.

Pittsburgh came to Riverfront the next week, and the Bengals were now a short favorite to win the game.  While Cleveland put Houston out of their misery to square their record at 5-5, Cincinnati blew the Steelers off the astroturf.  Terry Bradshaw lasted long enough to toss three interceptions before getting yanked in favor of Terry Hanratty, but by then, the outcome had been decided.  Pinpoint passing by Carter, solid running by Robinson, and a solid effort by the defense led the Bengals to another blowout win.  Now, after 10 weeks, Cleveland could hear the roar of the Bengals.  The Browns still led the division at 5-5, but Cincinnati was 4-6, while Pittsburgh was also 4-6, making this an exciting race down the stretch

In week 11, Cincinnati benefited from having the worst team in the NFC come to town, and the Bengals clawed New Orleans for an easy victory.  Meanwhile, the Steelers knocked off the Browns, roughing up Phipps and forcing old veteran Bill Nelsen to finish the game.  The three teams were now tied at 5-6, and the media were starting to get on the Bengals’ bandwagon.

Week 12 was the big one.  Cincinnati’s only really tough remaining game took them across the continent to San Diego to face a Chargers team fighting in a three-way race in the AFC West.  It was a must-win game for both teams.  San Diego would be all but eliminated with a loss, while a win and losses by the Raiders and Chiefs would give them a chance to sneak in at the end.

The game was a tough defensive struggle, and for the only time since the implementation of the short passing game, Cincinnati could not move the ball with short passes.  San Diego begged Carter to throw long, and when he did, he was off target.  The Bengals would finish with zero net passing yards this Sunday, and the running game would manage 136 yards.  Few teams win NFL games with 136 total yards, but when you have the best punt returner in football in Lemar Parrish, sometimes you win games on 83-yard punt returns, which is what Cincinnati did when they edged the Chargers by three.

Cleveland topped a breathless Oilers team, but Pittsburgh lost to Green Bay.  The Bengals and Browns stayed tied at 6-6, while Pittsburgh was still in the race at 5-7, but obviously on the verge of elimination.

Week 13 saw the NFL experts picking the obvious.  Cincinnati played at the breathless Oilers, while Cleveland was forced to play the other hot team in the league in Dallas.  The Bengals had no trouble quickly topping the Oilers, rushing for close to 200 yards, while Carter got some rest in the second half.  At the same time, Cleveland could not move the ball at all against the surging Cowboys.  They lost a defensive struggle where they could only muster a safety.  Now, with one week to play, Cincinnati led the division at 7-6, while Cleveland was 6-7.  Pittsburgh lost to Atlanta and was eliminated at 5-8.

All Cincinnati had to do to complete the miraculous turnaround from 1-6 to 8-6 was to top a weak 2-11 Boston Patriots team at Riverfront Stadium.  Cleveland had to beat Denver, as they held the tiebreaker over the Bengals should both teams finish 7-7.

It was never in doubt.  Boston was now in star franchise quarterback mode.  A loss to the Bengals would give the Patriots their choice of Plunkett or Manning.  They wanted Plunkett, and they were sure to get him.  The Patriots looked worse than the 1976 Tampa Bay Bucs would look in six years.  Cincinnati looked like the 1962 Green Bay Packers this day, as they rolled to a 45-7 victory.  Carter’s day was over early, after he went 3 for 3 for 96 yards and a TD.  Cincinnati had done the almost impossible–going from last place and 1-6 in the first half to first place and 7-0 in the second half.  The Bengals were inept against eventual Super Bowl Champion Baltimore in the first round of the playoffs when the Colts used the same tactics as the Chargers to stop the Cincinnati short passing game.  It was still an incredible year to remember in the Queen City, as a third year team won its division.

Now, can the 2018 New York Giants go from 1-7 to 9-7 and win the division?  Chances are less than the chances Cincinnati faced for multiple reasons.

First, the team at the top of the standings, Washington, is 6-3.  The Browns were never three games over .500 in 1970.  It’s possible that the Redskins could go 2-5 the rest of the way, but chances are less than 50-50 that will happen.

Second, Dallas and Philadelphia are not Pittsburgh and Houston.  You have the reigning World Champions that have yet to find their way in 2018, but they are not likely to fold.  Dallas may be an 8-8 team at best, but just one upset in the final weeks could move the Cowboys to 9-7.

Lastly, this Giants team just isn’t good enough to win eight consecutive games.  All they have done so far is beat a lowly 49ers team on Monday Night Football.  Unlike the Bengals in 1970, the 2018 Giants have a tough, almost brutal, closing schedule.  They are one-point favorites over Tampa Bay this week, but they will be underdogs in the rest of their games against the Eagles, Bears, Redskins, Titans, Colts, and Cowboys.  The more likely scenario is a 4-12 finish and not a 9-7 finish.

 

 

November 4, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 11

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday November 6
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo Kent St. 22.1 23.1 23.3

 

Wednesday November 7
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Miami (O) Ohio U -3.7 -3.3 -2.3
Northern Illinois Toledo 0.2 -0.1 0.5

 

Thursday November 8
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
North Carolina St. Wake Forest 11.7 13.2 13.5

 

Friday November 9
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Syracuse Louisville 22.9 22.1 23.2
Boise St. Fresno St. -2.0 -2.3 -2.9

 

Saturday November 10
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Houston Temple 1.8 2.5 1.5
Rutgers Michigan -40.1 -39.9 -42.5
Pittsburgh Virginia Tech -1.4 -0.6 -0.8
Boston College Clemson -19.6 -19.4 -20.6
Texas A&M Ole Miss 13.3 12.4 13.2
Tennessee Kentucky -13.0 -11.2 -13.3
Massachusetts BYU -16.5 -15.3 -16.5
Virginia Liberty 26.1 26.9 25.1
Georgia Southern Troy 1.2 1.6 0.3
Iowa St. Baylor 15.8 16.1 16.0
Central Florida Navy 30.0 28.3 30.8
West Virginia TCU 10.6 11.0 11.6
Georgia Tech Miami (Fla.) 4.3 5.0 5.0
Kansas St. Kansas 7.3 7.4 8.1
Eastern Michigan Akron 7.4 7.7 7.8
Indiana Maryland -1.4 -1.1 -0.7
Connecticut SMU -18.9 -18.4 -19.5
Duke North Carolina 13.9 12.9 13.7
Oklahoma Oklahoma St. 16.1 16.7 16.7
Iowa Northwestern 9.0 9.0 8.9
Cincinnati South Florida 12.9 13.2 13.9
Coastal Carolina Arkansas St. -6.5 -5.4 -7.2
Tulane East Carolina 15.3 16.1 15.9
Utah Oregon 9.7 8.1 9.5
Colorado Washington St. -9.1 -7.5 -8.2
Marshall Charlotte 18.1 18.4 18.4
Old Dominion North Texas -15.6 -14.6 -16.5
Central Michigan Bowling Green 8.0 10.0 8.5
Nevada Colorado St. 12.8 12.2 13.3
Stanford Oregon St. 32.1 31.9 33.6
UTEP Middle Tennessee -17.5 -16.1 -18.8
Georgia Auburn 15.9 14.6 15.6
Penn St. Wisconsin 8.8 8.8 9.5
Alabama Mississippi St. 24.1 24.3 24.7
Air Force New Mexico 14.2 13.7 14.9
Missouri Vanderbilt 19.1 17.4 20.0
Nebraska Illinois 12.8 12.0 12.8
Minnesota Purdue -14.2 -13.9 -14.7
Memphis Tulsa 12.6 14.5 13.2
Florida South Carolina 3.1 2.4 4.3
USC California 3.9 4.5 3.1
Texas Tech Texas 1.2 1.5 1.0
Arkansas LSU -16.4 -18.2 -18.7
Utah St. San Jose St. 35.3 35.7 38.0
Texas St. Appalachian St. -21.4 -20.3 -22.5
Louisiana Georgia St. 9.0 9.2 10.1
Florida Atlantic Western Kentucky 20.9 19.3 20.9
South Alabama UL-Monroe -7.7 -6.4 -8.0
Louisiana Tech Rice 28.6 27.9 30.9
UTSA Florida Int’l. -10.3 -9.9 -10.4
Notre Dame Florida St. 21.8 20.2 21.6
UAB Southern Miss. 17.2 16.8 17.8
Michigan St. Ohio St. -0.2 -0.3 -0.4
Arizona St. UCLA 16.3 15.5 18.6
San Diego St. UNLV 22.7 21.7 23.1

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Army Lafayette 47.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 142.0 140.3 143.6 142.0
2 Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7
3 Michigan 130.2 129.0 131.0 130.0
4 Georgia 128.9 126.3 130.0 128.4
5 Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9
6 Oklahoma 123.0 121.8 123.3 122.7
7 Ohio St. 121.7 119.7 121.5 121.0
8 Washington 121.0 118.9 121.6 120.5
9 Mississippi St. 120.4 118.5 121.4 120.1
10 L S U 119.1 118.4 120.2 119.2
11 Missouri 119.0 117.5 120.1 118.8
12 Michigan St. 118.4 116.4 118.1 117.7
13 Penn St. 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2
14 Iowa 116.6 114.8 116.4 115.9
15 Boston College 116.6 114.4 116.4 115.8
16 Auburn 115.5 114.3 116.9 115.6
17 Utah 115.7 114.0 116.1 115.3
18 West Virginia 115.6 114.6 114.9 115.0
19 Central Florida 114.4 114.6 114.7 114.6
20 Fresno St. 114.3 113.9 115.0 114.4
21 Iowa State 114.7 113.3 114.6 114.2
22 Kentucky 114.5 113.2 114.4 114.0
23 Stanford 114.6 112.3 114.8 113.9
24 Georgia Tech 114.2 113.2 114.0 113.8
25 Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 114.1 113.5
26 Purdue 113.8 112.2 113.6 113.2
27 Washington St. 113.0 111.8 112.6 112.5
28 Texas 113.1 111.5 112.4 112.3
29 Miami 112.9 111.2 112.0 112.1
30 Utah St. 111.1 112.5 112.5 112.0
31 N. Carolina St. 112.2 111.6 111.9 111.9
32 Duke 112.4 110.5 111.8 111.6
33 Florida 111.7 109.9 112.3 111.3
34 Wisconsin 112.3 109.7 111.4 111.1
35 S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0
36 Syracuse 111.6 110.4 110.9 111.0
37 Arizona St. 111.3 110.0 111.2 110.8
38 Texas Tech 111.2 109.9 110.4 110.5
39 Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0
40 Oregon 109.0 108.9 109.6 109.2
41 Boise St. 109.3 108.7 109.1 109.0
42 Virginia Tech 109.7 108.4 108.9 109.0
43 Oklahoma St. 108.9 107.1 108.6 108.2
44 U S C 108.5 106.9 107.7 107.7
45 T C U 108.0 106.6 106.3 106.9
46 California 107.6 105.5 107.6 106.9
47 Virginia 105.9 106.1 105.2 105.7
48 Pittsburgh 105.3 104.8 105.1 105.1
49 Florida St. 105.3 104.3 104.5 104.7
50 Army 104.3 105.0 104.5 104.6
51 Maryland 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5
52 Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5
53 Arizona 103.8 102.4 104.1 103.4
54 Vanderbilt 102.9 103.0 103.1 103.0
55 Temple 102.6 102.6 103.3 102.8
56 Kansas St. 103.0 101.6 102.0 102.2
57 Cincinnati 101.2 102.9 101.7 101.9
58 Memphis 101.2 102.6 101.9 101.9
59 Houston 101.4 102.1 101.8 101.8
60 Nebraska 102.2 100.9 101.1 101.4
61 Baylor 101.9 100.2 101.6 101.2
62 Colorado 100.9 101.3 101.4 101.2
63 Wake Forest 102.5 100.4 100.4 101.1
64 BYU 100.3 100.7 100.8 100.6
65 U A B 99.3 102.0 100.3 100.6
66 Ohio U 99.8 101.1 100.7 100.5
67 Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.5 100.4
68 Toledo 99.2 100.6 99.2 99.7
69 N. Carolina 100.0 99.1 99.6 99.6
70 San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5
71 N. Texas 98.6 100.9 99.1 99.5
72 Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5
73 Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7
74 Tennessee 98.5 98.9 98.1 98.5
75 Arkansas 99.7 97.2 98.5 98.5
76 Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6
77 U C L A 98.0 97.5 95.7 97.0
78 Northern Illinois 96.5 97.4 96.7 96.9
79 Air Force 96.1 96.8 96.6 96.5
80 Tulane 96.2 96.8 96.3 96.4
81 Kansas 97.2 95.7 95.5 96.1
82 Minnesota 96.6 95.3 95.9 95.9
83 Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5
84 Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.3 95.4
85 SMU 95.3 95.0 94.8 95.0
86 Eastern Michigan 94.0 95.4 94.3 94.6
87 Wyoming 94.7 94.8 94.3 94.6
88 Middle Tennessee 93.5 95.3 94.6 94.5
89 Nevada 94.2 94.3 94.4 94.3
90 Louisiana Tech 92.6 94.6 93.6 93.6
91 Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1
92 Illinois 92.4 91.9 91.3 91.9
93 South Florida 91.3 92.7 90.8 91.6
94 Louisville 91.7 91.2 90.7 91.2
95 Tulsa 91.1 90.6 91.2 91.0
96 Georgia Southern 89.9 91.6 90.5 90.7
97 Akron 89.1 90.2 89.0 89.5
98 Western Michigan 88.5 90.1 89.5 89.4
99 Florida Int’l. 87.6 91.2 88.1 89.0
100 Arkansas St. 87.8 89.3 89.2 88.8
101 Navy 87.4 89.3 86.9 87.9
102 Rutgers 87.5 86.5 86.0 86.7
103 Southern Miss. 84.6 87.7 85.0 85.8
104 UL-Monroe 85.2 85.7 85.8 85.6
105 New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2
106 Colorado St. 84.4 85.1 84.1 84.5
107 Oregon St. 85.5 83.4 84.2 84.4
108 Central Michigan 83.2 85.5 83.6 84.1
109 Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7
110 East Carolina 83.4 83.2 82.9 83.2
111 Liberty 81.8 81.2 82.1 81.7
112 Old Dominion 80.5 83.7 80.1 81.5
113 Massachusetts 80.3 81.9 80.8 81.0
114 Kent St. 80.1 81.2 80.2 80.5
115 W. Kentucky 79.1 81.9 79.5 80.2
116 Charlotte 79.1 81.5 79.9 80.2
117 Ball St. 79.7 81.7 79.1 80.2
118 Hawaii 79.9 81.5 78.8 80.1
119 U N L V 79.7 80.6 79.7 80.0
120 Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9
121 San Jose St. 78.8 79.8 77.5 78.7
122 Bowling Green 77.7 78.1 77.5 77.8
123 Georgia St. 76.6 78.5 76.8 77.3
124 U T S A 74.8 78.7 75.2 76.3
125 South Alabama 75.0 76.8 75.3 75.7
126 Texas State 73.8 76.6 74.1 74.8
127 U T E P 73.0 76.2 72.9 74.0
128 Connecticut 73.8 74.2 72.8 73.6
129 N. Mexico St. 72.0 73.8 71.9 72.6
130 Rice 66.5 69.2 65.2 67.0

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.4 114.6 114.7 114.6 5-0 8-0
Temple 102.6 102.6 103.3 102.8 4-1 5-4
Cincinnati 101.2 102.9 101.7 101.9 4-1 8-1
South Florida 91.3 92.7 90.8 91.6 3-2 7-2
East Carolina 83.4 83.2 82.9 83.2 0-5 2-6
Connecticut 73.8 74.2 72.8 73.6 0-5 1-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 101.2 102.6 101.9 101.9 2-3 5-4
Houston 101.4 102.1 101.8 101.8 4-1 7-2
Tulane 96.2 96.8 96.3 96.4 3-2 4-5
SMU 95.3 95.0 94.8 95.0 3-2 4-5
Tulsa 91.1 90.6 91.2 91.0 1-4 2-7
Navy 87.4 89.3 86.9 87.9 1-4 2-7
AAC Averages 94.9 95.5 94.9 95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7 6-0 9-0
Boston College 116.6 114.4 116.4 115.8 4-1 7-2
N. Carolina St. 112.2 111.6 111.9 111.9 2-2 6-2
Syracuse 111.6 110.4 110.9 111.0 4-2 7-2
Florida St. 105.3 104.3 104.5 104.7 2-5 4-5
Wake Forest 102.5 100.4 100.4 101.1 1-4 4-5
Louisville 91.7 91.2 90.7 91.2 0-6 2-7
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Georgia Tech 114.2 113.2 114.0 113.8 3-3 5-4
Miami 112.9 111.2 112.0 112.1 2-3 5-4
Duke 112.4 110.5 111.8 111.6 2-3 6-3
Virginia Tech 109.7 108.4 108.9 109.0 3-2 4-4
Virginia 105.9 106.1 105.2 105.7 4-2 6-3
Pittsburgh 105.3 104.8 105.1 105.1 4-1 5-4
N. Carolina 100.0 99.1 99.6 99.6 1-5 1-7
ACC Averages 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 123.0 121.8 123.3 122.7 5-1 8-1
West Virginia 115.6 114.6 114.9 115.0 5-1 7-1
Iowa State 114.7 113.3 114.6 114.2 4-2 5-3
Texas 113.1 111.5 112.4 112.3 4-2 6-3
Texas Tech 111.2 109.9 110.4 110.5 3-3 5-4
Oklahoma St. 108.9 107.1 108.6 108.2 2-4 5-4
T C U 108.0 106.6 106.3 106.9 2-4 4-5
Kansas St. 103.0 101.6 102.0 102.2 1-5 3-6
Baylor 101.9 100.2 101.6 101.2 3-3 5-4
Kansas 97.2 95.7 95.5 96.1 1-5 3-6
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 130.2 129.0 131.0 130.0 6-0 8-1
Ohio St. 121.7 119.7 121.5 121.0 5-1 8-1
Michigan St. 118.4 116.4 118.1 117.7 5-2 6-3
Penn St. 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2 3-3 6-3
Maryland 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5 3-3 5-4
Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5 1-5 4-5
Rutgers 87.5 86.5 86.0 86.7 0-6 1-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 116.6 114.8 116.4 115.9 3-3 6-3
Purdue 113.8 112.2 113.6 113.2 4-2 5-4
Wisconsin 112.3 109.7 111.4 111.1 4-2 6-3
Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0 5-1 5-4
Nebraska 102.2 100.9 101.1 101.4 1-5 2-7
Minnesota 96.6 95.3 95.9 95.9 1-5 4-5
Illinois 92.4 91.9 91.3 91.9 2-4 4-5
Big Ten Averages 108.9 107.3 108.4 108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6 2-3 4-5
Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5 3-2 5-3
Middle Tennessee 93.5 95.3 94.6 94.5 5-1 6-3
Florida Int’l. 87.6 91.2 88.1 89.0 4-1 6-3
Old Dominion 80.5 83.7 80.1 81.5 1-5 2-7
W. Kentucky 79.1 81.9 79.5 80.2 0-5 1-8
Charlotte 79.1 81.5 79.9 80.2 3-2 4-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
U A B 99.3 102.0 100.3 100.6 6-0 8-1
N. Texas 98.6 100.9 99.1 99.5 3-2 7-2
Louisiana Tech 92.6 94.6 93.6 93.6 4-1 6-3
Southern Miss. 84.6 87.7 85.0 85.8 2-3 3-5
U T S A 74.8 78.7 75.2 76.3 2-3 3-6
U T E P 73.0 76.2 72.9 74.0 1-4 1-8
Rice 66.5 69.2 65.2 67.0 0-6 1-9
CUSA Averages 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9 x 9-0
Army 104.3 105.0 104.5 104.6 x 7-2
BYU 100.3 100.7 100.8 100.6 x 4-5
Liberty 81.8 81.2 82.1 81.7 x 4-4
Massachusetts 80.3 81.9 80.8 81.0 x 4-6
N. Mexico St. 72.0 73.8 71.9 72.6 x 3-7
Indep. Averages 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio U 99.8 101.1 100.7 100.5 4-1 6-3
Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.5 100.4 5-0 8-1
Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.3 95.4 3-2 3-6
Akron 89.1 90.2 89.0 89.5 2-3 4-4
Kent St. 80.1 81.2 80.2 80.5 1-4 2-7
Bowling Green 77.7 78.1 77.5 77.8 0-5 1-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 99.2 100.6 99.2 99.7 3-2 5-4
Northern Illinois 96.5 97.4 96.7 96.9 5-0 6-3
Eastern Michigan 94.0 95.4 94.3 94.6 3-3 5-5
Western Michigan 88.5 90.1 89.5 89.4 4-2 6-4
Central Michigan 83.2 85.5 83.6 84.1 0-6 1-9
Ball St. 79.7 81.7 79.1 80.2 2-4 3-7
MAC Averages 90.1 91.5 90.6 90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Utah St. 111.1 112.5 112.5 112.0 5-0 8-1
Boise St. 109.3 108.7 109.1 109.0 4-1 7-2
Air Force 96.1 96.8 96.6 96.5 1-4 3-6
Wyoming 94.7 94.8 94.3 94.6 2-4 4-6
New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2 1-4 3-6
Colorado St. 84.4 85.1 84.1 84.5 2-3 3-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 114.3 113.9 115.0 114.4 5-0 8-1
San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5 4-1 7-2
Nevada 94.2 94.3 94.4 94.3 3-2 5-4
Hawaii 79.9 81.5 78.8 80.1 3-3 6-5
U N L V 79.7 80.6 79.7 80.0 0-5 2-7
San Jose St. 78.8 79.8 77.5 78.7 1-4 1-8
MWC Averages 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 121.0 118.9 121.6 120.5 5-2 7-3
Stanford 114.6 112.3 114.8 113.9 3-3 5-4
Washington St. 113.0 111.8 112.6 112.5 5-1 8-1
Oregon 109.0 108.9 109.6 109.2 3-3 6-3
California 107.6 105.5 107.6 106.9 2-4 5-4
Oregon St. 85.5 83.4 84.2 84.4 1-5 2-7
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 115.7 114.0 116.1 115.3 4-3 6-3
Arizona St. 111.3 110.0 111.2 110.8 3-3 5-4
U S C 108.5 106.9 107.7 107.7 4-3 5-4
Arizona 103.8 102.4 104.1 103.4 4-3 5-5
Colorado 100.9 101.3 101.4 101.2 2-4 5-4
U C L A 98.0 97.5 95.7 97.0 2-4 2-7
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 128.9 126.3 130.0 128.4 6-1 8-1
Missouri 119.0 117.5 120.1 118.8 1-4 5-4
Kentucky 114.5 113.2 114.4 114.0 5-2 7-2
Florida 111.7 109.9 112.3 111.3 4-3 6-3
S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0 4-3 5-3
Vanderbilt 102.9 103.0 103.1 103.0 1-4 4-5
Tennessee 98.5 98.9 98.1 98.5 1-4 4-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 142.0 140.3 143.6 142.0 6-0 9-0
Mississippi St. 120.4 118.5 121.4 120.1 2-3 6-3
L S U 119.1 118.4 120.2 119.2 4-2 7-2
Auburn 115.5 114.3 116.9 115.6 3-3 6-3
Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 114.1 113.5 3-3 5-4
Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5 1-4 5-4
Arkansas 99.7 97.2 98.5 98.5 0-5 2-7
SEC Averages 114.4 113.1 114.8 114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7 4-1 6-2
Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1 5-0 7-2
Georgia Southern 89.9 91.6 90.5 90.7 4-1 7-2
Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9 2-3 5-4
Georgia St. 76.6 78.5 76.8 77.3 1-4 2-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 87.8 89.3 89.2 88.8 2-3 5-4
UL-Monroe 85.2 85.7 85.8 85.6 3-2 5-4
Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7 2-3 4-5
South Alabama 75.0 76.8 75.3 75.7 1-4 2-7
Texas State 73.8 76.6 74.1 74.8 1-4 3-6
Sun Belt Averages 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

 

Ranking of Conferences

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.4 113.1 114.8 114.1
2 ACC 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
3 B12 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
4 BTEN 108.9 107.3 108.4 108.2
5 PAC12 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 94.9 95.5 94.9 95.1
7 MWC 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
8 IND 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
9 MAC 90.1 91.5 90.6 90.7
10 CUSA 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

Top 5 Group of 5

  1. Central Florida
  2. Fresno St.
  3. Utah St.
  4. Cincinnati
  5. UAB

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. North Texas
Cure AAC SBC South Florida Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Stanford
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Louisiana
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Cincinnati Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC At-Large Houston [BYU]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Memphis Marshall
Bahamas MAC CUSA Toledo Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Michigan Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulane Vanderbilt
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 SMU [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC UAB Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [California] Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Virginia [Buffalo]
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Miami (Fla.) [Arizona]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh Purdue
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Boston College Auburn
Camping World ACC Big 12 Syracuse Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. UL-Monroe
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Utah
Belk ACC SEC Duke South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Central Florida Kentucky
Military AAC ACC Temple Virginia Tech
Sun ACC Pac-12 Georgia Tech USC
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas Tech Mississippi St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. Washington
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Northwestern Missouri
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large North Carolina St. West Virginia
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Iowa Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Alabama Michigan
Orange Clemson Notre Dame
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Our Predictions on the Selection Committee Top 4

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Notre Dame
  4. Michigan

 

Looking Like Many More Bowl Eligible Teams Than Bowls This Year

In recent seasons, teams with 5-7 or 6-7 records qualified for bowl games because there were not enough teams to fill all the bowls.  Thanks to the Poinsettia Bowl folding, this losing record bowl team issue ceased last year.

This year, it looks like the Poinsettia and other bowls could have been created with more than enough bowl eligible teams for as many as 42 bowls.

As we look at the field heading into week 11, we believe that as many as 84 teams will reach bowl eligibility, and there is room for just 78.  When this happens, it hurts the Group of 5 conferences, and that is what we are expecting this year.

Here’s a look at some possible scenarios by each conference.

American Athletic

The AAC has tie-ins with seven bowls, but after this past weekend’s events with Houston and South Florida losing, the path now looks clear for Central Florida to run the table and for the second consecutive year, winning the precious New Year’s 6 Bowl bid.  That would create an eighth spot for the league, and we forecast eight teams to be bowl eligible.

Tulane and SMU now look like legitimate threats to get to 6-6 after the Green Wave blew USF to sea, and the Mustangs ended Houston’s hopes to make the Fiesta or Peach Bowl.

 

Atlantic Coast

Let’s include Notre Dame in this grouping, since the Fighting Irish are eligible for the ACC bowls.  What this means is that two teams from this group should make the NCAA Playoffs, with Clemson joining Notre Dame.

North Carolina State is 6-2 with four very winnable games remaining on their schedule.  Since the Wolf Pack will not be in the ACC Championship Game, and East Carolina will not be in the AAC Championship Game, their contingency late-scheduled game for December will take place, giving NC St. a great shot at 10-2 and possibly a NY6 Bowl.

Counting Notre Dame, we forecast 11 ACC teams to become bowl eligible, and with three going to either the playoffs or NY6, there will be eight remaining bowl eligible teams for eight remaining bowl bids.

 

Big 12

We believe that Oklahoma and West Virginia will face each other in back-to-back weeks, the first game in Morgantown, and the second in the Big 12 Championship Game.  We also believe there is a strong chance these two teams will split these games, and thus no Big 12 team will earn a spot in the Playoffs.

That throws the Big 12 Champion into the Sugar Bowl, while the runner-up is likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl.  That takes care of two bowl eligible teams.  We forecast seven Big 12 teams to make bowl eligibility, so there will be five additional teams but there will be six remaining bowls.  This will leave the Armed Forces Bowl without a Big 12 opponent.  This is fine, because there will be a perfect at-large team for this bowl.

 

Big Ten

This has become a quite interesting race, if only in the competitive West Division.  In the East, the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game will be in line for the Playoffs if they can win the Big Ten Championship Game the next week.  That is, of course, it Ohio State can win at Michigan State this week, and that will be a tough task.

We forecast Michigan to win out and make the Playoffs, with Ohio State getting the Rose Bowl bid (even if they lose to the Spartans and finish 9-3).  The rest of the bowl order in this league will be almost cut and dry, because the Big Ten has rules not to send repeat teams to bowls when there are other options.  The repeat extends out to four years.

We forecast the Big Ten to have just eight bowl eligible teams due to tough closing schedules for the four remaining teams in competition for six wins.  Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, and Minnesota look like seven loss teams as of this week.

Thus, the league will come up two teams short in supplying bowl eligible schools, and the Quick Lane and Heart of Dallas Bowl (First Responder Bowl) will not have Big Ten teams this year.

Conference USA

Last year, CUSA had 10 bowl eligible teams, and nine of them earned bowl bids.  UTSA missed out.  This year, it looks like seven teams will get to six wins, and the league has seven bowl bids.  The champion  gets to choose its bowl destination from any of the league tie-ins.  It’s a good bet the champion will choose either the Hawaii or Bahamas Bowl.

Independents

Not counting Notre Dame, three other teams should become bowl eligible.  However, one of those teams is Liberty, and the Flames will not be eligible for a bowl game unless they are not enough bowl eligible teams.  As we mentioned already, there will be a glut and not a dearth this year.

Army is on mark for a 10-2 record, and the aforementioned Armed Forces Bowl would be the ideal location for the Black Knights, even though they played in this bowl last year.  Still, it’s the Armed Forces Bowl!

BYU may only finish 6-6, and the Cougars may be weaker than a half-dozen other bowl eligible schools that do not receive bowl bids.  However, they have a guarantee with ESPN to be placed in a bowl game if they are 6-6.  Thus, they will beat out a team that might be 8-4.  The Frisco Bowl has only one conference tie-in this year, and this is an ESPN-sponsored bowl, so it would be the logical place to send the Cougars.

Mid-American

This is a league almost assured of having more bowl eligible teams than bowl spots, even if the league gets an extra bowl game as the alternate for the Quick Lane Bowl.  In the East, Ohio U and Buffalo are already bowl eligible.  Northern Illinois and Western Michigan are bowl eligible out of the West, and Toledo and Eastern Michigan will soon join them to make it six bowl eligible teams for five bowl games.  Buffalo and Western Michigan were bowl eligible and left out last year, and it would be terrible for one of these two schools to get left out again.  Buffalo could be 10-2 or 11-2 and not the MAC Champion, so it figures that the Bulls have to get a bowl this year, or else they might consider looking elsewhere for a league.

Mountain West

This could be the most unlucky conference of all, where a team with eight wins does not earn a bid.  If a couple of Power 5 conference teams lingering at .500 or just below get to 6-6, and there are many in the running, they will steal bowl spots from the MWC.

We forecast seven MWC teams to make bowl eligibility, which means we believe Wyoming will win their final two games.  Because their last game will be at New Mexico, we think that will keep the Cowboys out of the running for the New Mexico Bowl, and that will keep them out of the bowls altogether.

Nevada is in line to be 8-4 and not make a bowl game if there are enough Power 5 league teams to gobble up all the at-large bids after Army and BYU get their bowl bids.  The Wolfpack are clearly better than Hawaii, but the Rainbows will clinch their hometown bid with a win over lowly UNLV on November 17.

Pac-12

This is the most interesting conference of all this year due to parity.  With three weeks remaining in the conference race, 10 of the 12 teams can still earn the Rose Bowl bid!  There could even be a six-way tie for first place in the six-team South Division!  As the late Dick Enberg would have no doubt said, “Oh my!”

Being a bit more realistic, even when this league tends to shy away from realism, let’s for now say that Washington State continues to win and finish the regular season at 11-1.  The Cougars would then advance to the Pac-12 Championship Game and be a healthy favorite to win and earn the Rose Bowl bid, assuming that they cannot slip into the Playoffs.

In the West, Utah still has a slim advantage over the remaining teams for the division flag, and because it would take another 5,000 words to explain all the possible scenarios, we will forecast the Utes to win the South.

Still, that is going to most likely leave this league with nine bowl eligible teams for seven bowl bids.  The last two in the priority list will likely be California and Arizona, two teams that would no doubt be number one and number two in the at-large pool.

Southeastern

Our forecast for the top league has been undergoing weekly changes, as we forecast 10 bowl eligible teams one week and 11 the next.  This is an 11-team forecast week, as team number 11 is Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are 4-5.  A loss at Missouri this week and then wins at home over Ole Miss and Tennessee would put Vandy at 6-6.  Tennessee is also 4-5, and should the Vols upset Kentucky or Missouri, the season-ending rivalry game in Nashville between the Vols and Commodores could be for the last bowl bid.  If one of these two Volunteer State rivals gets to 6-6, it makes live very bad for Nevada and a team from the MAC.

Sun Belt

This is another league likely to have a glut of bowl eligible teams for their contracted bowl tie-ins.

Troy, Appalachian State, and Georgia Southern are already bowl eligible.  Coastal Carolina, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Monroe need one more win each to get to bowl eligibility, and they should all make it.  Louisiana needs two more wins, and we believe the Ragin’ Cajuns will get those two wins.  This adds up to seven bowl eligible teams for five bowl bids.  Coastal Carolina and one other team will be jilted.  While it should be Louisiana, the boys from Lafayette will get the New Orleans Bowl bid with six wins, as they have many times before.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 15, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 7, October 18-22, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Arizona Denver 1.4 0.8 1.7 40
L.A. Chargers [London] Tennessee 5.5 6.3 6.6 42.5
Indianapolis Buffalo 4.3 2.9 4.3 40.5
Philadelphia Carolina 2.7 3.4 2.3 45.5
Kansas City Cincinnati 9.9 9.8 10.3 50
Tampa Bay Cleveland 2.8 2.4 2.8 47.5
Miami Detroit -1.0 -1.6 -1.1 48.5
Jacksonville Houston 5.2 5.2 5.7 44
N.Y. Jets Minnesota -0.4 -1.0 -0.2 45.5
Chicago New England 0.0 -1.0 0.3 44
Baltimore New Orleans -0.1 0.5 0.0 47.5
Washington Dallas 1.3 0.6 2.2 42.5
San Francisco L.A. Rams -10.4 -10.8 -10.7 50.5
Atlanta N.Y. Giants 8.3 8.2 8.1 47

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.0 105.4 105.1 105.2 22.5 4-2
N. Y. Jets 98.5 98.2 98.7 98.5 24 3-3
Miami 97.2 96.8 97.3 97.1 22 4-2
Buffalo 93.8 93.8 93.5 93.7 15.5 2-4
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.6 105.7 105.3 105.5 23 3-2-1
Baltimore 104.7 105.3 105.0 105.0 21 4-2
Cincinnati 99.9 100.3 99.9 100.0 23 4-2
Cleveland 95.0 95.3 95.7 95.3 23 2-3-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 101.1 101.0 101.3 101.1 20 3-3
Houston 98.4 98.3 98.1 98.2 24 3-3
Tennessee 96.9 96.9 96.2 96.7 19 3-3
Indianapolis 95.6 94.2 95.3 95.0 25 1-5
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 106.8 107.2 107.2 107.1 27 5-1
LA Chargers 102.4 103.2 102.8 102.8 23.5 4-2
Denver 97.4 97.1 96.8 97.1 21.5 2-4
Oakland 93.1 93.3 92.9 93.1 21 1-5
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.0 102.1 101.7 101.9 22.5 3-3
Dallas 100.5 100.4 99.9 100.3 20 3-3
Washington 99.3 98.5 99.6 99.1 22.5 3-2
N.Y. Giants 95.5 95.3 95.4 95.4 21.5 1-5
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 102.4 102.0 102.9 102.4 21.5 3-2
Minnesota 102.0 102.2 101.9 102.0 21.5 3-2-1
Detroit 100.7 100.9 100.9 100.8 26.5 2-3
Green Bay 99.4 100.1 99.0 99.5 24.5 3-2-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.8 107.8 108.0 107.9 26.5 4-1
Carolina 101.9 101.2 101.8 101.6 23 3-2
Atlanta 101.3 101.1 101.0 101.1 25.5 2-4
Tampa Bay 95.3 95.2 96.0 95.5 24.5 2-3
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 108.1 108.9 108.4 108.5 26.5 6-0
Seattle 102.1 102.0 102.4 102.2 22.5 3-3
Arizona 95.8 95.0 95.5 95.4 18.5 1-5
San Francisco 94.7 95.1 94.7 94.8 24 1-5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Baltimore
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Pittsburgh

 

NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Philadelphia
4 Chicago
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
L.A. Chargers over Houston
Philadelphia over Minnesota
Carolina over Chicago

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Kansas City
Baltimore over New England
L.A. Rams over Carolina
Philadelphia over New Orleans

 

Conference Championship
Baltimore over L.A. Chargers
L.A. Rams over Philadelphia

 

Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over Baltimore

 

 

 

October 14, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday October 18
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Arizona St. Stanford -4.2 -2.8 -4.6
Arkansas St. Georgia St. 10.0 9.2 10.6

 

Friday October 19
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Boise St. Colorado St. 28.2 26.5 28.4
UNLV Air Force -9.6 -8.8 -9.4

 

Saturday October 20
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Temple Cincinnati 6.7 5.1 7.0
Arkansas Tulsa 12.3 10.7 10.6
Navy Houston -8.6 -7.0 -9.4
Tulane SMU 5.0 5.8 5.7
Missouri Memphis 15.5 12.1 15.5
East Carolina Central Florida -29.1 -29.6 -30.0
South Florida Connecticut 27.9 29.6 29.4
Syracuse North Carolina 13.5 13.0 13.3
Duke Virginia 12.6 10.1 12.9
Clemson North Carolina St. 22.4 20.3 23.0
Florida St. Wake Forest 6.7 8.3 8.6
TCU Oklahoma -4.6 -4.3 -6.3
Texas Tech Kansas 13.3 13.4 13.9
Michigan St. Michigan -6.2 -7.0 -7.1
Wisconsin Illinois 26.9 24.6 27.3
Iowa Maryland 13.7 13.1 14.2
Rutgers Northwestern -23.4 -22.7 -25.4
Indiana Penn St. -20.4 -18.7 -21.2
Nebraska Minnesota -2.8 -3.4 -4.5
Purdue Ohio St. -14.2 -13.6 -14.7
Marshall Florida Atlantic -0.6 1.4 -0.2
Middle Tenneesee Charlotte 17.3 16.3 18.3
Louisiana Tech UTEP 25.8 25.2 27.9
Southern Miss. UTSA 9.8 8.5 9.7
Florida Int’l. Rice 26.4 27.8 29.1
UAB North Texas -2.2 -2.2 -2.6
Western Kentucky Old Dominion 1.1 0.8 2.6
Army Miami (O) 15.1 14.2 13.0
Massachusetts Coastal Carolina 10.2 9.6 10.7
New Mexico St. Georgia Southern -13.3 -13.1 -13.7
Toledo Buffalo 2.5 1.4 1.1
Ohio U Bowling Green 14.6 15.5 14.8
Ball St. Eastern Michigan -6.8 -5.7 -7.4
Central Michigan Western Michigan -4.8 -4.0 -5.4
Kent St. Akron -10.3 -10.6 -11.0
Wyoming Utah St. -10.6 -12.1 -12.7
New Mexico Fresno St. -19.5 -16.9 -19.7
San Diego St. San Jose St. 30.5 30.0 33.1
Hawaii Nevada -5.9 -3.8 -6.7
Washington Colorado 22.3 19.3 22.8
Oregon St. California -13.9 -13.8 -15.1
Washington St. Oregon -1.1 -2.0 -2.7
Utah USC 9.2 8.9 10.6
UCLA Arizona 1.9 3.5 -0.6
Ole Miss Auburn -7.9 -7.0 -9.2
Tennessee Alabama -38.1 -35.6 -40.2
LSU Mississippi St. 1.6 4.0 2.2
Kentucky Vanderbilt 17.3 15.9 17.3
Appalachian St. Louisiana 22.0 21.7 22.7
Louisina-Monroe Texas St. 13.6 10.9 14.2

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Liberty Idaho St. 4.8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.2 138.2 141.8 140.1
2 Clemson 133.9 131.3 134.4 133.2
3 Georgia 127.8 124.7 128.6 127.0
4 Ohio St. 127.5 125.5 127.8 126.9
5 Michigan 125.5 124.2 125.9 125.2
6 Notre Dame 124.5 121.7 123.5 123.2
7 Washington 123.4 121.4 124.7 123.1
8 Penn St. 122.3 119.6 122.6 121.5
9 Oklahoma 119.7 118.3 120.0 119.3
10 Mississippi St. 119.9 117.4 120.6 119.3
11 L S U 118.6 118.4 119.8 118.9
12 Michigan St. 117.7 115.6 117.2 116.9
13 Utah 116.0 114.3 116.9 115.8
14 Miami 115.9 114.5 115.4 115.3
15 Iowa 116.0 114.0 115.7 115.2
16 Auburn 114.7 113.4 116.3 114.8
17 Wisconsin 115.8 113.1 115.2 114.7
18 Central Florida 114.5 114.7 114.8 114.7
19 Duke 115.3 113.2 114.9 114.5
20 Kentucky 114.9 113.8 114.8 114.5
21 Missouri 114.7 113.0 115.7 114.4
22 Florida 114.6 113.0 115.5 114.3
23 N. Carolina St. 114.5 113.9 114.4 114.3
24 Stanford 115.1 112.4 115.1 114.2
25 Oregon 113.7 113.6 114.6 114.0
26 Texas A&M 114.2 112.9 114.4 113.8
27 Boston College 114.4 111.8 113.8 113.4
28 Texas 113.5 112.1 113.0 112.8
29 Iowa State 112.8 111.2 112.6 112.2
30 Virginia Tech 112.2 111.2 111.8 111.7
31 West Virginia 112.4 111.4 111.5 111.7
32 S. Carolina 112.2 111.0 111.8 111.7
33 T C U 112.1 111.0 110.7 111.2
34 Georgia Tech 111.2 110.1 110.8 110.7
35 Fresno St. 110.9 109.9 111.2 110.7
36 Northwestern 110.7 109.0 110.6 110.1
37 Purdue 110.3 108.9 110.1 109.8
38 Boise St. 109.7 109.0 109.8 109.5
39 U S C 109.8 108.4 109.3 109.2
40 Syracuse 109.9 108.5 109.1 109.2
41 Washington St. 109.6 108.6 108.9 109.0
42 Utah St. 107.8 109.2 109.3 108.8
43 Texas Tech 109.5 108.2 108.4 108.7
44 Oklahoma St. 109.4 107.5 109.1 108.6
45 Arizona St. 107.9 106.6 107.5 107.3
46 Florida St. 107.4 106.8 107.1 107.1
47 Army 104.9 105.6 105.1 105.2
48 Virginia 105.2 105.7 104.5 105.1
49 Colorado 104.0 105.1 104.9 104.7
50 Maryland 105.3 104.0 104.5 104.6
51 Ole Miss 103.8 103.4 104.1 103.7
52 Kansas St. 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5
53 Houston 103.0 103.7 103.4 103.4
54 Minnesota 103.7 102.8 103.6 103.4
55 Memphis 102.2 103.9 103.2 103.1
56 California 103.8 101.3 103.2 102.8
57 San Diego St. 102.4 102.6 103.2 102.7
58 Temple 102.4 102.4 103.1 102.6
59 Baylor 103.0 101.2 102.7 102.3
60 Wake Forest 103.8 101.4 101.5 102.2
61 Appalachian St. 100.8 102.6 102.5 101.9
62 N. Texas 99.9 102.4 100.9 101.0
63 Pittsburgh 101.4 100.7 100.8 101.0
64 Vanderbilt 100.5 100.8 100.5 100.6
65 BYU 100.1 100.6 100.7 100.4
66 Arizona 100.6 98.8 100.7 100.0
67 Arkansas 100.3 97.8 99.2 99.1
68 Tennessee 99.2 99.6 98.5 99.1
69 South Florida 98.4 100.4 98.5 99.1
70 N. Carolina 99.4 98.4 98.8 98.9
71 Cincinnati 98.2 99.8 98.6 98.8
72 Buffalo 97.7 99.8 98.8 98.8
73 U C L A 99.5 99.3 97.1 98.6
74 Indiana 98.9 97.9 98.4 98.4
75 Kansas 99.2 97.8 97.5 98.2
76 Florida Atlantic 97.2 97.9 97.8 97.6
77 Toledo 97.1 98.2 96.9 97.4
78 Nebraska 97.9 96.4 96.1 96.8
79 Louisiana Tech 94.6 97.1 96.1 95.9
80 U A B 94.6 97.1 95.3 95.7
81 Air Force 95.3 95.9 95.4 95.5
82 Northern Illinois 94.9 95.6 94.7 95.1
83 Louisville 95.2 95.2 94.4 94.9
84 Marshall 93.6 96.3 94.5 94.8
85 Tulane 94.4 94.8 94.2 94.5
86 Miami (O) 92.8 94.5 95.1 94.1
87 Eastern Michigan 93.5 94.8 94.0 94.1
88 Wyoming 94.3 94.1 93.6 94.0
89 Ohio U 92.7 93.9 93.2 93.3
90 Middle Tennessee 91.8 93.2 93.0 92.7
91 Western Michigan 91.8 93.4 92.7 92.7
92 Navy 91.4 93.6 91.0 92.0
93 Nevada 92.1 91.9 92.0 92.0
94 Troy 90.6 91.9 91.9 91.5
95 SMU 92.0 91.4 91.0 91.5
96 Akron 90.8 92.1 91.2 91.4
97 Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.6 90.4 91.2
98 Illinois 91.4 91.0 90.4 90.9
99 Tulsa 91.0 90.2 91.5 90.9
100 Georgia Southern 88.9 90.6 89.5 89.7
101 New Mexico 88.4 90.0 88.5 89.0
102 Arkansas St. 86.7 88.0 88.1 87.6
103 Central Michigan 85.0 87.4 85.3 85.9
104 Southern Miss. 84.4 87.4 85.0 85.6
105 Oregon St. 86.9 84.5 85.1 85.5
106 Ball St. 84.2 86.6 84.1 85.0
107 Colorado St. 84.5 85.4 84.4 84.8
108 Massachusetts 83.4 85.3 84.3 84.3
109 U N L V 83.2 84.6 83.5 83.8
110 Rutgers 84.8 83.7 82.8 83.8
111 Old Dominion 82.0 85.4 81.5 83.0
112 Louisiana 81.7 83.9 82.8 82.8
113 East Carolina 82.9 82.6 82.3 82.6
114 UL-Monroe 82.3 82.5 82.8 82.6
115 Hawaii 82.2 84.1 81.3 82.5
116 W. Kentucky 80.7 83.7 81.6 82.0
117 Liberty 81.3 80.5 81.5 81.1
118 Bowling Green 80.6 80.9 80.8 80.8
119 Georgia St. 79.2 81.2 80.0 80.1
120 U T S A 77.2 81.4 77.8 78.8
121 Kent St. 78.0 79.1 77.7 78.3
122 Charlotte 77.0 79.4 77.2 77.9
123 South Alabama 76.4 78.3 77.0 77.2
124 Coastal Carolina 75.7 78.2 76.1 76.7
125 San Jose St. 74.9 75.6 73.1 74.5
126 N. Mexico St. 73.1 75.0 73.3 73.8
127 Connecticut 73.5 73.8 72.1 73.1
128 Texas State 71.3 74.2 71.1 72.2
129 U T E P 71.3 74.4 70.7 72.1
130 Rice 66.2 68.7 64.3 66.4

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.5 114.7 114.8 114.7 3-0 6-0
Temple 102.4 102.4 103.1 102.6 3-0 4-3
South Florida 98.4 100.4 98.5 99.1 2-0 6-0
Cincinnati 98.2 99.8 98.6 98.8 2-0 6-0
East Carolina 82.9 82.6 82.3 82.6 0-3 2-4
Connecticut 73.5 73.8 72.1 73.1 0-3 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 103.0 103.7 103.4 103.4 2-0 5-1
Memphis 102.2 103.9 103.2 103.1 1-3 4-3
Tulane 94.4 94.8 94.2 94.5 1-1 2-4
Navy 91.4 93.6 91.0 92.0 1-2 2-4
SMU 92.0 91.4 91.0 91.5 1-1 2-4
Tulsa 91.0 90.2 91.5 90.9 0-3 1-5
AAC Averages 95.3 95.9 95.3 95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 133.9 131.3 134.4 133.2 3-0 6-0
N. Carolina St. 114.5 113.9 114.4 114.3 1-0 5-0
Boston College 114.4 111.8 113.8 113.4 2-1 5-2
Syracuse 109.9 108.5 109.1 109.2 1-2 4-2
Florida St. 107.4 106.8 107.1 107.1 1-3 3-3
Wake Forest 103.8 101.4 101.5 102.2 0-2 3-3
Louisville 95.2 95.2 94.4 94.9 0-4 2-5
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 115.9 114.5 115.4 115.3 2-1 5-2
Duke 115.3 113.2 114.9 114.5 1-1 5-1
Virginia Tech 112.2 111.2 111.8 111.7 3-0 4-2
Georgia Tech 111.2 110.1 110.8 110.7 1-3 3-4
Virginia 105.2 105.7 104.5 105.1 2-1 4-2
Pittsburgh 101.4 100.7 100.8 101.0 2-1 3-4
N. Carolina 99.4 98.4 98.8 98.9 1-2 1-4
ACC Averages 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 119.7 118.3 120.0 119.3 2-1 5-1
Texas 113.5 112.1 113.0 112.8 4-0 6-1
Iowa State 112.8 111.2 112.6 112.2 2-2 3-3
West Virginia 112.4 111.4 111.5 111.7 3-1 5-1
T C U 112.1 111.0 110.7 111.2 1-2 3-3
Texas Tech 109.5 108.2 108.4 108.7 2-1 4-2
Oklahoma St. 109.4 107.5 109.1 108.6 1-3 4-3
Kansas St. 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5 1-3 3-4
Baylor 103.0 101.2 102.7 102.3 2-2 4-3
Kansas 99.2 97.8 97.5 98.2 0-3 2-4
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 127.5 125.5 127.8 126.9 4-0 7-0
Michigan 125.5 124.2 125.9 125.2 4-0 6-1
Penn St. 122.3 119.6 122.6 121.5 1-2 4-2
Michigan St. 117.7 115.6 117.2 116.9 3-1 4-2
Maryland 105.3 104.0 104.5 104.6 2-1 4-2
Indiana 98.9 97.9 98.4 98.4 1-3 4-3
Rutgers 84.8 83.7 82.8 83.8