PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–Regular Season Final

NCAA 2009 College Football Playoff Simulation

The Playoffs You Wished For 

Welcome to season number three of the NCAA College Football Playoff Simulation.  For those reading this blog for the first time, the PiRate College Football Playoffs take the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC as automatic qualifiers.  Any of the remaining conference champions (including the top independent) that finish in the top 16 in the final regular season BCS Standings also qualify automatically.  At-large teams are then selected in the order of BCS finish until 12 total teams have been selected.  The 12 teams are then seeded by BCS ranking with no maximum number of teams per conference.

 

Here is how the 12 teams were selected for the 2009 playoffs.

 

Top Six Conference Champions

ACC–Georgia Tech 11-2           #9 Seed

Big East–Cincinnati 12-0                   #3 Seed

Big Ten–Ohio State 10-2         #8 Seed

Big 12—Texas 13-0                    #2 Seed

Pac-10—Oregon 10-2                #7 Seed

SEC—Alabama 13-0                             #1 Seed

 

Automatic Qualifiers By Virtue Of Top 16 In BCS

MWC—T C U 12-0                       #4 Seed

WAC—Boise State 13-0             #6 Seed

 

Top Four At-Large To Fill Out 12-Team Field

Florida 12-1                                 #5 Seed

Iowa 10-2                                    #10 Seed

Virginia Tech 10-2                     #11 Seed

L S U 9-3                                      #12 Seed

 

The PiRate Playoff System uses the top 11 bowl games to play the four rounds.  The 5^th through 12^th seeds must play in the first round, while the top four seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals.

Opening Round

 

Outback Bowl    #5 Florida vs. #12 L S U  Dec 17

Alamo Bowl       #6 Boise State vs. #11 Virginia Tech  Dec 18

Holiday Bowl     #7 Oregon vs. #10 Iowa  Dec 19

Gator Bowl         #8 Ohio State vs. #9 Georgia Tech  Dec 19

 

Quarterfinal Round

 

Cotton Bowl                #4 T C U vs. Outback Bowl Winner  Jan 1

Capital One Bowl       #3 Cincinnati vs. Alamo Bowl Winner  Jan 1

Rose Bowl                             #2 Texas vs. Holiday Bowl Winner  Jan 1

Sugar Bowl                  #1 Alabama vs. Gator Bowl Winner  Jan 1

 

Semifinal Round

 

Fiesta Bowl        Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Fiesta Bowl Winner Jan 9

Orange Bowl     Rose Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner Jan 9

 

National Championship Game

 

Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Orange Bowl Winner  Jan 23

 

1. This system awards the four best teams with byes.

2. This system not only keeps the bowls alive, but it gives them more importance and prestige, as 11 bowls decide the title.

3. Instead of undefeated Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State getting left out of the national championship picture, number 13 Penn State is the first team left out.  This is much more fair, as this system will always allow a 12-0 team to have a chance regardless of whether it is Alabama or Boise State.

4. The remaining bowls would not have to settle for 6-6 teams.  The rules could demand at least 7 wins as a minimum.

5. Three of the four rounds would occur during winter break for the schools, thus quashing the myth that players would miss too much time.

 

Check back on December 20 for simulated results of the first round games.

 

Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

 

The Army-Navy game must still be played, but that game doesn’t warrant an extra week’s worth of ratings.  Neither team can break the top 25 even if they win 222-0.  The game still has bowl implications.  If Army wins, the Cadets will advance to the Eagle Bank Bowl to face Temple.  If Navy wins, then UCLA takes Army’s place in Washington, DC.

NCAA Top 25 For December 7, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Alabama	133.0	13	0
2	Texas	131.4	12	0
3	Florida	128.2	12	1
4	T C U	125.4	12	0
5	Oklahoma	124.0	7	5
6	Boise State	120.9	12	0
7	Virginia Tech	120.5	9	3
8	Oregon	119.8	10	2
9	Georgia Tech	119.4	11	2
10	Nebraska	118.8	9	4
11	Texas Tech	117.9	8	4
12	Penn State	117.7	10	2
13	Ohio State	117.6	10	2
14	Miami (Fla)	117.4	9	3
15	Stanford	116.9	8	4
16	Arkansas	115.5	7	5
17	Southern Cal	115.1	8	4
18	Cincinnati	114.9	12	0
19	Iowa	114.8	10	2
20	Arizona	114.0	8	4
21	Oklahoma State	113.9	9	3
22	Pittsburgh	113.7	9	3
23	Ole Miss	113.2	8	4
24	L  S  U	112.5	9	3
25	Oregon State	112.0	8	4
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	6-2	8-5	111.7
Florida State	4-4	6-6	107.6
Boston College	5-3	8-4	107.1
Wake Forest	3-5	5-7	104.8
North Carolina State	2-6	5-7	102.7
Maryland	1-7	2-10	93.0
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	6-2	9-3	120.5
Georgia Tech	7-1	11-2	119.4
Miami-FL	5-3	9-3	117.4
North Carolina	4-4	8-4	110.9
Duke	3-5	5-7	98.4
Virginia	2-6	3-9	94.8

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	8-0	12-0	114.9
Pittsburgh	5-2	9-3	113.7
West Virginia	5-2	9-3	106.0
Connecticut	3-4	7-5	105.8
Rutgers	3-4	8-4	102.1
South Florida	3-4	7-5	101.8
Syracuse	1-6	4-8	93.9
Louisville	1-6	4-8	90.5

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Penn State	6-2	10-2	117.7
Ohio State	7-1	10-2	117.6
Iowa	6-2	10-2	114.8
Wisconsin	5-3	9-3	108.5
Michigan State	4-4	6-6	101.5
Northwestern	5-3	8-4	99.3
Purdue	4-4	5-7	99.0
Minnesota	3-5	6-6	97.9
Michigan	1-7	5-7	96.6
Illinois	2-6	3-9	96.0
Indiana	1-7	4-8	90.9

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	6-2	9-4	118.9
Missouri	4-4	8-4	104.8
Kansas	1-7	5-7	103.9
Kansas State	4-4	6-6	99.4
Colorado	2-6	3-9	97.4
Iowa State	3-5	6-6	94.9
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	8-0	13-0	131.4
Oklahoma	5-3	7-5	124.0
Texas Tech	5-3	8-4	117.9
Oklahoma State	6-2	9-3	113.9
Texas A&M	3-5	6-6	103.4
Baylor	1-7	4-8	96.6

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
East Carolina	7-1	9-4	105.2
Central Florida	6-2	8-4	104.1
Southern Mississippi	5-3	7-5	100.9
Marshall	4-4	6-6	92.4
U A B	4-4	5-7	91.0
Memphis	1-7	2-10	83.4
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	6-2	10-3	107.4
Tulsa	3-5	5-7	91.6
U T E P	3-5	4-8	90.8
S M U	6-2	7-5	88.4
Rice	2-6	2-10	76.4
Tulane	1-7	3-9	71.1

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-6	105.9
Navy		8-4	100.6
Army		5-6	82.0

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	7-1	9-3	100.7
Ohio U	7-1	9-4	94.9
Buffalo	3-5	5-7	92.4
Bowling Green	6-2	7-5	91.4
Kent St.	4-4	6-6	84.7
Akron	2-6	3-9	81.5
Miami (O)	1-7	1-11	76.3
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	8-0	11-2	109.0
Northern Illinois	5-3	7-5	95.1
Toledo	3-5	5-7	87.1
Western Michigan	4-4	5-7	86.2
Ball State	2-6	2-10	83.0
Eastern Michigan	0-8	0-12	74.2

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	8-0	12-0	125.4
B Y U	7-1	10-2	111.1
Utah	6-2	9-3	107.7
Air Force	5-3	7-5	100.7
Wyoming	4-4	6-6	87.9
UNLV	3-5	5-7	86.8
Colo. State	0-8	3-9	86.1
S. D. State	3-5	5-7	85.2
New Mexico	1-7	1-11	77.8

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	8-1	10-2	119.8
Stanford	6-3	8-4	116.9
Southern Cal	5-4	8-4	115.1
Arizona	6-3	8-4	114.0
Oregon St.	6-3	8-4	112.0
California	5-4	8-4	108.6
U C L A	3-6	6-6	105.3
Arizona St.	2-7	4-8	102.1
Washington	4-5	5-7	103.6
Wash. St.	0-9	1-11	70.8

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	8-0	12-1	128.2
Tennessee	4-4	7-5	110.9
South Carolina	3-5	7-5	110.9
Georgia	4-4	7-5	110.4
Kentucky	3-5	7-5	104.4
Vanderbilt	0-8	2-10	93.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	8-0	13-0	133.0
Arkansas	3-5	7-5	115.5
Ole Miss	4-4	8-4	113.2
L S U	5-3	9-3	112.5
Auburn	3-5	7-5	107.7
Mississippi State	3-5	5-7	104.2

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	8-0	9-3	99.0
Middle Tennessee	7-1	9-3	96.2
Louisiana-Monroe	5-3	6-6	86.8
Arkansas State	3-5	4-8	85.8
Florida Atlantic	5-3	5-7	84.6
U. of Louisiana	4-4	6-6	83.7
Florida International	3-5	3-9	80.3
North Texas	1-7	2-10	76.4
Western Kentucky	0-8	0-12	73.7

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	8-0	13-0	120.9
Nevada	7-1	8-4	108.6
Louisiana Tech	3-5	4-8	99.8
Fresno State	6-2	7-4	99.0
Utah State	3-5	4-8	91.9
Idaho	4-4	7-5	89.6
Hawaii	3-5	6-6	87.7
San Jose State	1-7	2-10	78.5
New Mexico State	1-7	3-10	71.0

 

Bowl Lineups

Day	Date	Time EST	Bowl	Team		Team
Sat	19-Dec	4:30 PM	New Mexico	Wyoming	vs.	Fresno State
Sat	19-Dec	8:00 PM	St. Petersburg	Rutgers	vs.	Central Florida
Sun	20-Dec	8:15 PM	New Orleans	Middle Tenn	vs.	Southern Miss
Tue	22-Dec	8:00 PM	Las Vegas	B  Y  U	vs.	Oregon State
Wed	23-Dec	8:00 PM	Poinsettia	Utah	vs.	California
Thu	24-Dec	8:00 PM	Hawaii	Nevada	vs.	S  M  U
Sat	26-Dec	1:00 PM	Little Caesar’s Pizza	Marshall	vs.	Ohio U
Sat	26-Dec	4:30 PM	Meineke Car Care	North Carolina	vs.	Pittsburgh
Sat	26-Dec	8:00 PM	Emerald	Southern Cal	vs.	Boston College
Sun	27-Dec	8:15 PM	Music City	Kentucky	vs.	Clemson
Mon	28-Dec	5:00 PM	Independence	Georgia	vs.	Texas A&M
Tue	29-Dec	4:30 PM	Eagle Bank	Temple	vs.	Army/UCLA
Tue	29-Dec	8:00 PM	Champs Sports	Miami-Fl	vs.	Wisconsin
Wed	30-Dec	4:30 PM	Humanitarian	Idaho	vs.	Bowling Green
Wed	30-Dec	8:00 PM	Holiday	Nebraska	vs.	Arizona
Thu	31-Dec	11:00 AM	Armed Forces	Houston	vs.	Air Force
Thu	31-Dec	2:00 PM	Sun	Stanford	vs.	Oklahoma
Thu	31-Dec	3:30 PM	Texas	Missouri	vs.	Navy
Thu	31-Dec	6:00 PM	Insight.com	Iowa State	vs.	Minnesota
Thu	31-Dec	7:30 PM	Chick-fil-A	Tennessee	vs.	Va. Tech
Fri	1-Jan	11:00 AM	Outback	Auburn	vs.	Northwestern
Fri	1-Jan	1:00 PM	Capital One	Penn State	vs.	L  S  U
Fri	1-Jan	1:00 PM	Gator	West Va.	vs.	Florida State
Fri	1-Jan	5:10 PM	Rose	Oregon	vs.	Ohio State
Fri	1-Jan	8:00 PM	Sugar	Florida	vs.	Cincinnati
Sat	2-Jan	12:00 PM	International	South Florida	vs.	Northern Illinois
Sat	2-Jan	2:00 PM	Cotton	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Ole Miss
Sat	2-Jan	2:00 PM	Papajohns.com	Connecticut	vs.	South Carolina
Sat	2-Jan	5:30 PM	Liberty	Arkansas	vs.	East Carolina
Sat	2-Jan	9:00 PM	Alamo	Texas Tech	vs.	Michigan St.
Mon	4-Jan	8:00 PM	Fiesta	Boise State	vs.	T C U
Tue	5-Jan	8:00 PM	Orange	Georgia Tech	vs.	Iowa
Wed	6-Jan	8:00 PM	G M A C	Troy	vs.	Central Mich.
Thu	7-Jan	8:00 PM	Nat’l Championship	Alabama	vs.	Texas

Coming This Week–What you can do to help bring about a college football playoff

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 30-December 12

It’s The Week We’ve All Been Waiting For

 

It seems like just last week the college football season kicked off, and here it is the end of the regular season.  A handful of games can potentially scramble the bowl bids that will go out Sunday.  With the holidays bringing the five PiRates together under the same roof in northwest Wisconsin for too much turkey and other booty, we stayed up late gathering information for this special bowl edition.  We think through hard work and phone calls to contacts in multiple locations, we have one of the best views of the bowl games.

This edition will not be a speculative one.  We are actually trying to use information we have gathered to report where we believe the bowls are looking with six days to go.

The BCS Bowls

National Championship Game:  Obviously the winner of this week’s Alabama-Florida game in the SEC Championship will finish number one.  If Texas wins, then everything is rather easy.  The Longhorns will finish number two.  Here’s where things get dicey.  If Texas loses, there will be controversy no matter which team makes it to Pasadena.  TCU would be the logical choice, but Cincinnati could edge ahead of the Horned Frogs with a convincing win over Pittsburgh.  And, if Alabama were to edge Florida by a point or win in overtime, there is still a possibility that Alabama and Florida could meet in a rematch.  Remember something; part of the BCS equation is human voting.  The fourth estate has never been confused for being honest and just.  All it takes is for a few voters to move TCU down one spot, and the fix would be in.

We believe Nebraska’s lack of offense will make this all superfluous.  Texas will win by double digits this week and face the SEC winner for the national championship.  We’ve taken a vote here in the Northwoods; one of us believes Florida will win this week.  One of us believes Alabama will win, and the other three consider it a tossup.  It should be the next “greatest game,” in the mold of Ohio State and Michigan in 2006, Florida State and Florida in 1996, Notre Dame and USC in 1988, and the two greatest late season matchups of #1 vs. #2—Oklahoma and Nebraska in 1971 and Notre Dame and Michigan State in 1966. 

Orange Bowl: The winner of this week’s Clemson-Georgia Tech game for the ACC Championship will automatically go to Miami.  We believe Clemson has a better than 50% chance of pulling off the upset.  In their regular season game, Clemson’s comedy of errors led to the Yellow Jackets getting a big lead.  The Tigers made a great comeback and almost pulled it off.  We thing CU gets revenge this week and heads to Miami with a weak 8-4 record.  The Orange Bowl will get the third selection in the at-large draft if Texas wins.  The Sugar and Fiesta Bowls will have already picked because they will have lost teams to the National Championship Game.  With Alabama or Florida and Iowa already taken off the board, this pick will come down to either the Big East champion, Boise State, or TCU.  If Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh, we don’t see the Bearcats being chosen even though they would be 12-0.  Cincinnati played in Miami last year.  It would come down to TCU and Boise State.  Believe it or not, Boise’s fans travel better, so we will go with Boise State here.

If Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati, the Panthers will probably wind up here, and Boise State would head to the Fiesta Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl: Assuming Texas wins, the Fiesta Bowl will get the second and fourth picks in the at-large draft.  The SEC loser will be off the table, and we believe the best choice for this bowl will be Iowa.  After the Orange Bowl picks Boise State, TCU becomes the logical choice.  If Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati, then Boise State would land here.

Sugar Bowl: Without a doubt, the loser of the SEC Championship will play here if both SEC teams don’t play again in Pasadena.  The Sugar Bowl gets the first pick to replace the number one team being lost to the National Championship Game.  The Sugar Bowl also gets the last pick in the at-large draft.  Since this cannot be a Hobson’s Choice, Cincinnati would land here as the only option if the Bearcats beat Pittsburgh.  If Pittsburgh wins this week, then TCU would land here.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State is already assured of playing here.  The winner of Thursday night’s Oregon-Oregon State game will be the opponent.  There can be no other options this year.

The Top-Tier Non-BCS Bowls

 

Capital One Bowl: LSU seems to be a shoo-in for this bowl after Ole Miss fell to Mississippi State.  Penn State will land here if Iowa is chosen over the Lions for a BCS Bowl.  We see no reason for Penn State fans to believe they can beat out Iowa, especially if the bowl in question is the Fiesta Bowl.

Outback Bowl: The top remaining SEC East team is supposed to play here, while the top remaining SEC West team is supposed to play in the Cotton Bowl. Ole Miss played in Dallas last year, and there was talk that there could be a trade-off with Ole Miss heading to Tampa.  However, late news seems to support the Rebels playing in the Cotton Bowl again, so Tennessee looks like the choice here.  The Big Ten representative will be Wisconsin unless the Badgers lose in Hawaii this weekend.  If that happens, it changes a lot of other bowls. 

Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma State should receive this invitation, since the Cowboys have the second best record, but Nebraska or over Oklahoma could leapfrog them.  For now, we will stick with the most politically correct pick and go with Oklahoma State.  According to late-breaking news, the SEC representative will be Ole Miss. 

Gator Bowl: Notre Dame’s fold means the Big East gets this spot.  The loser of the Pittsburgh-Cincinnati game will end up in Jacksonville.  We believe Georgia Tech will lose to Clemson this week, so the Yellow Jackets will play here.  Our pick then is Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh.  If the Yellow Jackets win the ACC, then it appears that Miami would be the ACC representative.

Holiday Bowl: Southern Cal will get this bid if Oregon beats Oregon State.  If the Beavers beat the Ducks, then Oregon will drop to this bowl.  Nebraska is the logical Big 12 choice for this game.

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Georgia’s win over Georgia Tech will put the Bulldogs at the top of the list for this game, but a second year in a row of fewer hotel rooms needing to be booked (Georgia Tech played here last year) probably sends the Bulldogs somewhere else.  The likely ACC opponent will be Virginia Tech, and the SEC will try to find the best opponent.  Auburn would be the best choice, providing a match-up of offense against defense, but most of their fans can drive to this game.  We’re going with Auburn because officials from this bowl repeatedly attended their games.  Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

The Mid-Level Bowls

 

Las Vegas Bowl: Even though they have been to this bowl four years in a row, it looks like Brigham Young is headed here again.  The Mountain West would like Utah to go here, but BYU will sell their allotment for this one, while the Utes will not.

The Pac-10 opponent could be a host of teams, but we think it will be either Stanford or Oregon State.  One of those two will play here, while the other plays in the Emerald Bowl.  We’ll go with Stanford here.  If Oregon State beats Oregon, then Southern Cal or California might fall to this game.

Meineke Car Care Bowl: This bowl will have a choice of Florida State or Boston College.  With Bobby Bowden announcing his retirement tomorrow, the Seminoles will jump over the Eagles.  Rutgers should get the Big East invitation in this game.

Music City Bowl: This could be an interesting rivalry game.  How about North Carolina facing South Carolina?  Since the Gamecocks joined the SEC in 1991, these two teams have played just once.

Liberty Bowl: Arkansas looks like the best option here.  The Razorbacks will fill up the stadium.  The Conference USA champion automatically plays here, so that means either Houston or East Carolina will be the opponent.  Houston and Arkansas would make this a 100-pass, 4-hour game with maybe 100+ points scored.

Sun Bowl: If Oregon wins Thursday, we believe California will be the Pac-10 representative.  Oklahoma looks like the best fit for the Big 12.

Champs Sports Bowl: If Clemson wins over Georgia Tech, Miami should fall to this bowl.  If Georgia Tech wins over Clemson, then Miami moves up to the Gator and Clemson falls here.  Northwestern should be the Big 10 opponent, but if Wisconsin loses to Hawaii, NU could move up and the Badgers could fall here.

Alamo Bowl: Texas Tech should receive this bid, and their opponent should be Michigan State.  It could take 40 points to win this game.

The Bottom Tier

 

St. Petersburg Bowl: This second year bowl has a chance to make a big splash by bringing together two in-state teams that played each other the last four years but not this year.  Central Florida and South Florida could sell this game out.  We think it is a strong possibility, but the chances for this dream game have dropped some the last few days.

New Mexico Bowl: Unless some back room deals are made, the Mountain West opponent will be Wyoming.  There could be some wheeling and dealing to bring an at-large team here and ship Wyoming to the Humanitarian Bowl, but for now, we’ll keep the Cowboys here.  The WAC opponent will be either Nevada or Fresno State.  If Hawaii upsets Wisconsin, then there will be one extra WAC team available.  For now, we’ll stick with Nevada.

New Orleans Bowl: Troy won the Sunbelt Conference Championship and earns the automatic bid here.  There is a rule where the SBC champion could move to a higher-paying bowl, but for that to happen, the SBC must supply two additional seven-win teams.  There are only two of these teams, so Troy will play here barring some “exception.”   The C-USA opponent should be Southern Mississippi.

Poinsettia Bowl: All signs point to BYU playing here, but we just don’t see the Las Vegas bowl passing over the Cougars for Utah.  So, we’re going against the grain and picking Utah to end up in San Diego.  Arizona looks like the Pac-10 opponent.  If the Wildcats upset USC, then there is a small chance they could move up.

Hawaii Bowl:  Here’s where a giant monkey wrench could be thrown into the bowl games.  Hawaii will get this bid with a win over Wisconsin.  We might be biased, but we think the Badgers can pull this one out.  So, in that case, Fresno State should be the WAC representative.  The hot CUSA choice is SMU, which would bring June Jones back to the island.  Since this bowl desperately wants a Hawaii-SMU game, look for this week’s Hawaii-Wisconsin game to be one of the most partially-biased officiated games.

Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl: This bowl could be in for a mess.  Central Michigan played here last year, so it looks like the Chippewas are headed to Mobile, Alabama.  A bigger problem is that there will not be a Big 10 team available for this game.  Because the at-large pool must take all the seven-win teams before any 6-6 team can be selected, this bowl might have to invite two MAC teams, neither of which are the conference champion.

Ohio U should be the official MAC selection.  This bowl would love to bring Notre Dame here, but even if one 6-6 team can be chosen, it looks like the Irish will vote not to play in any bowls.  Middle Tennessee, at 9-3, would be the best at-large option, but we believe the Blue Raiders will be invited somewhere else first.  So, this bowl will have to look for two MAC teams that have not played.  That leaves Northern Illinois against Bowling Green.

Emerald Bowl: Boston College will be the last available ACC team, and they will fortunate to sell half of their ticket allotment.  Oregon State or Stanford will be the opponent here, and since we pegged Stanford for the Las Vegas Bowl, we’ll put the Beavers here.

Independence Bowl: This bowl is tired of having teams that don’t want to be here, but it will be the case once again with the SEC.  Georgia could very well end up here if the Chick-fil-A looks elsewhere.  The Big 12 representative will come down to either Texas A&M or Iowa State.  If Georgia is chosen to play in Atlanta, then this bowl will jump at the chance to pit Auburn with Iowa State for obvious reasons (Auburn coach Gene Chizik was at Iowa State and Iowa State coach Paul Rhoads was at Auburn).  Under the assumption that Auburn will play in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, we’ll slate Georgia here against Texas A&M.

Eagle Bank Bowl: This second year bowl faces the possibility that neither of its two tie-ins will be able to supply a team.  Army has to beat Navy to earn their bid.  We believe that will happen, and the Cadets will make life easier for this bowl.  The ACC will definitely not have an available team for this bowl, so an at-large team will be selected.  Temple will be making its first bowl trip in almost two decades, so the Owls will be a good choice.  If Army loses to Navy, then a 6-6 team will end up here.  Since Notre Dame will not be available if they vote not to go to a bowl, Marshall may get this bid, even though Coach Mark Snyder just resigned.

Humanitarian Bowl: With Boise State almost assured of making it to a BCS Bowl if Texas beats Nebraska, this bowl will look to Idaho to replace the Broncos.  With TCU earning a BCS bowl, the MWC will not have an available team for this game.  With all the seven-win teams coming from over 1,500 miles away from Boise, it looks like UCLA could become the one 6-6 bowl team and play here.

Armed Forces Bowl:  The MWC team should be Air Force, as it is a no-brainer to have a service academy playing here.  The C-USA opponent should be the loser of the ECU-Houston game this week.  Houston would be a great counterpart.

Texas Bowl: Navy has already secured one of these spots.  Iowa State or Texas A&M will be the opponent depending on which way the Independence bowl goes.

Insight.com Bowl: Minnesota will be the last Big Ten team in the bowl pecking order, so the Gophers will get this bid.  Missouri is the likely Big 12 opponent.

International Bowl:  Connecticut is the logical choice as the Big East representative.  Ohio U may be shipped here, as they cannot play in the Pizza Bowl against either Bowling Green or Northern Illinois (they beat both).

PapaJohns.com Bowl: Kentucky should be the last available SEC team, and the Wildcats will travel well to Birmingham.  West Virginia would be an excellent opponent here.

NCAA Top 25 For November 30, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	134.2	12	0
2	Florida	133.2	12	0
3	Alabama	128.0	12	0
4	T C U	125.4	12	0
5	Oklahoma	124.0	7	5
6	Boise State	120.9	12	0
7	Virginia Tech	120.5	9	3
8	Oregon	119.7	9	2
9	Georgia Tech	119.3	10	2
10	Texas Tech	117.9	8	4
11	Penn State	117.7	10	2
12	Southern Cal	117.7	8	3
13	Ohio State	117.6	10	2
14	Miami (Fla)	117.4	9	3
15	Stanford	116.9	8	4
16	Nebraska	116.1	9	3
17	Arkansas	115.5	7	5
18	Iowa	114.8	10	2
19	California	114.6	8	3
20	Cincinnati	114.4	11	0
21	Pittsburgh	114.2	9	2
22	Oklahoma State	113.9	9	3
23	Ole Miss	113.2	8	4
24	L  S  U	112.5	9	3
25	Oregon State	112.1	8	3
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	6-2	8-4	111.8
Florida State	4-4	6-6	107.6
Boston College	5-3	8-4	107.1
Wake Forest	3-5	5-7	104.8
North Carolina State	2-6	5-7	102.7
Maryland	1-7	2-10	93.0
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	6-2	9-3	120.5
Georgia Tech	7-1	10-2	119.3
Miami-FL	5-3	9-3	117.4
North Carolina	4-4	8-4	110.9
Duke	3-5	5-7	98.4
Virginia	2-6	3-9	94.8

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	7-0	11-0	114.4
Pittsburgh	5-1	9-2	114.2
West Virginia	4-2	8-3	105.9
Connecticut	2-4	6-5	105.8
Rutgers	3-3	8-3	102.2
South Florida	3-3	7-4	101.8
Syracuse	1-6	4-8	93.9
Louisville	1-6	4-8	90.5

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Penn State	6-2	10-2	117.7
Ohio State	7-1	10-2	117.6
Iowa	6-2	10-2	114.8
Wisconsin	5-3	8-3	105.3
Michigan State	4-4	6-6	101.5
Northwestern	5-3	8-4	99.3
Purdue	4-4	5-7	99.0
Minnesota	3-5	6-6	97.9
Michigan	1-7	5-7	96.6
Illinois	2-6	3-8	96.2
Indiana	1-7	4-8	90.9

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	6-2	9-3	116.1
Missouri	4-4	8-4	104.8
Kansas	1-7	5-7	103.9
Kansas State	4-4	6-6	99.4
Colorado	2-6	3-9	97.4
Iowa State	3-5	6-6	94.9
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	8-0	12-0	134.2
Oklahoma	5-3	7-5	124.0
Texas Tech	5-3	8-4	117.9
Oklahoma State	6-2	9-3	113.9
Texas A&M	3-5	6-6	103.4
Baylor	1-7	4-8	96.6

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	6-2	8-4	104.1
East Carolina	7-1	8-4	103.9
Southern Mississippi	5-3	7-5	100.9
Marshall	4-4	6-6	92.4
U A B	4-4	5-7	91.0
Memphis	1-7	2-10	83.4
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	6-2	10-2	108.7
Tulsa	3-5	5-7	91.6
U T E P	3-5	4-8	90.8
S M U	6-2	7-5	88.4
Rice	2-6	2-10	76.4
Tulane	1-7	3-9	71.1

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-6	105.9
Navy		8-4	100.6
Army		5-6	82.0

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	7-1	9-3	100.7
Ohio U	7-1	9-3	95.0
Buffalo	3-5	5-7	92.4
Bowling Green	6-2	7-5	91.4
Kent St.	4-4	6-6	84.7
Akron	2-6	3-9	81.5
Miami (O)	1-7	1-11	76.3
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	8-0	10-2	108.9
Northern Illinois	5-3	7-5	95.1
Toledo	3-5	5-7	87.1
Western Michigan	4-4	5-7	86.2
Ball State	2-6	2-10	83.0
Eastern Michigan	0-8	0-12	74.2

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	8-0	12-0	125.4
B Y U	7-1	10-2	111.1
Utah	6-2	9-3	107.7
Air Force	5-3	7-5	100.7
Wyoming	4-4	6-6	87.9
UNLV	3-5	5-7	86.8
Colo. State	0-8	3-9	86.1
S. D. State	3-5	5-7	85.2
New Mexico	1-7	1-11	77.8

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	7-1	9-2	119.7
Southern Cal	5-3	8-3	117.7
Stanford	6-3	8-4	116.9
California	5-3	8-3	114.6
Oregon St.	6-2	8-3	112.1
Arizona	5-3	7-4	111.4
U C L A	3-6	6-6	105.3
Arizona St.	2-7	4-8	102.1
Washington	3-5	4-7	97.6
Wash. St.	0-9	1-11	70.8

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	8-0	12-0	133.2
Tennessee	4-4	7-5	110.9
South Carolina	3-5	7-5	110.9
Georgia	4-4	7-5	110.4
Kentucky	3-5	7-5	104.4
Vanderbilt	0-8	2-10	93.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	8-0	12-0	128.0
Arkansas	3-5	7-5	115.5
Ole Miss	4-4	8-4	113.2
L S U	5-3	9-3	112.5
Auburn	3-5	7-5	107.7
Mississippi State	3-5	5-7	104.2

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	8-0	9-3	99.0
Middle Tennessee	7-1	9-3	96.2
Louisiana-Monroe	5-3	6-6	86.8
Arkansas State	2-5	3-8	86.2
U. of Louisiana	4-4	6-6	83.7
Florida Atlantic	4-3	4-7	83.2
Florida International	3-4	3-8	81.7
North Texas	1-7	2-10	76.4
Western Kentucky	0-7	0-11	73.3

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	7-0	12-0	120.9
Nevada	7-1	8-4	108.6
Fresno State	6-2	7-4	99.0
Louisiana Tech	2-5	3-8	97.2
Utah State	3-5	4-8	91.9
Idaho	4-4	7-5	89.6
Hawaii	3-5	6-6	87.7
San Jose State	1-6	2-9	81.1
New Mexico State	1-6	3-9	71.0

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Thursday, December 3		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Arkansas State	WESTERN KY.	10.2	34-24	9
OREGON	Oregon State	10.3	38-28	9
Friday, December 4		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Central Michigan  (Det.)	Ohio U	14.9	35-20	7
Saturday, December 5		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
CONNECTICUT	South Florida	7.3	27-20	7
PITTSBURGH	Cincinnati	2.8	24-21	0
West Virginia	RUTGERS	0.7	28-27	0
Houston	EAST CAROLINA	1.8	37-35	5
ILLINOIS	Fresno State	0.7	31-30	-3
LOUISIANA TECH	San Jose St.	19.1	40-21	16
BOISE STATE	New Mexico St.	53.4	63-10	44
SOUTHERN CAL	Arizona	10.6	24-13	6
Florida (Atlanta)	Alabama	5.2	21-16	2
California	WASHINGTON	14.0	35-21	8
FLORIDA INT’L	Florida Atlantic	0.5	27-26	1
Texas (Dallas)	Nebraska	19.6	27-7	14
Wisconsin	HAWAII	13.6	38-24	11
Saturday, December 12		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Navy  (N-Philadelphia)	Army	18.6	35-16	8

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 23-28, 2009

Rivalry Week

Throw The Stats Out The Window

 

This is the college football week where more money is lost by those who don’t know what they are doing and more money is made by those who do know.  Certain rivalry games are just that—real rivalries.  Others are nothing but an annual beating on a little sister.

 

There is another bigger factor to this week’s games.  It’s the bowl factor.  Several teams are still looking for one final win to become bowl eligible.  A 5-6 team hosting an 8-3 team must be looked at quite differently than a 2-9 team hosting a 4-7 team.  The desire to get to 6-6 far outweighs the desire to avoid a 10-loss season.

 

NCAA Top 25 For November 23, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	137.0	11	0
2	Florida	133.1	11	0
3	Alabama	130.4	11	0
4	T C U	125.3	11	0
5	Oklahoma	122.5	6	5
6	Georgia Tech	121.5	10	1
7	Boise St.	120.8	11	0
8	Oregon	119.7	9	2
9	Va. Tech	119.5	8	3
10	Texas Tech	118.8	7	4
11	Penn St.	117.7	10	2
12	Ohio St.	117.6	10	2
13	Southern Cal	116.9	7	3
14	Nebraska	116.7	8	3
15	Stanford	116.7	7	4
16	Ole Miss	116.5	8	3
17	Miami (Fla.)	116.1	8	3
18	Pittsburgh	115.6	9	1
19	Arkansas	115.5	7	4
20	Okla. St.	115.4	9	2
21	Cincinnati	115.2	10	0
22	Iowa	114.8	10	2
23	California	114.6	8	3
24	Clemson	114.5	8	3
25	L  S  U	112.5	8	3
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

 

Let’s look at the bowl eligible teams by conference as well as the teams needing to win this week to gain bowl eligibility.

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	6-2	8-3	114.5
Boston College	4-3	7-4	107.8
Florida State	4-4	6-5	107.7
Wake Forest	2-5	4-7	104.0
North Carolina State	1-6	4-7	101.2
Maryland	1-6	2-9	92.3
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Georgia Tech	7-1	10-1	121.5
Virginia Tech	5-2	8-3	119.5
Miami-FL	5-3	8-3	116.1
North Carolina	4-3	8-3	112.4
Duke	3-4	5-6	99.2
Virginia	2-6	3-8	95.8

 

Clemson and Georgia Tech have already clinched their divisions and will meet for the ACC Championship.  Tech edges the Tigers in Atlanta in September, but Clemson gave the game away.

 

Duke needs to beat Wake Forest this week to earn their first bowl in 15 years.  David Cutcliffe is one of the most underrated coaches in the country, and he should receive some national recognition in the Coach of the Year balloting.

 

The ACC has nine automatic bowl bids, and only seven bowl eligible teams as of now.  The GMAC Bowl will need to find an at-large team to fill the vacant position, and if Duke loses this week, the Eagle Bank Bowl will look to the MAC to fill that vacant slot.

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Pittsburgh	5-0	9-1	115.6
Cincinnati	6-0	10-0	115.2
West Virginia	3-2	7-3	104.5
Connecticut	1-4	5-5	104.1
Rutgers	2-3	7-3	101.1
South Florida	3-3	7-3	103.1
Syracuse	1-5	4-7	95.6
Louisville	1-5	4-7	91.6

 

Regardless of what happens in the Backyard Brawl in Morgantown this weekend, the winner of next week’s Cincinnati-Pittsburgh game will be Big East Champions and automatic BCS Bowl representative.  Cincinnati could still conceivably earn an at-large BCS Bowl bid at 11-1, but that chance is slimmer than slim.

 

Connecticut can gain bowl eligibility with a win at home against Syracuse this weekend, and they would get another chance next week against South Florida if they faltered against the Orangemen.  If the Huskies get that win, then the Big East will have six bowl eligible teams for six guaranteed spots.  Notre Dame could still possibly steal the Sun Bowl/Gator Bowl spot that goes to a Big East team if the Irish beat Stanford, but it would be a disgrace for them to steal a post at 7-5.  We believe Stanford will take care of business and keep Notre Dame out of the bowl picture altogether this year.

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Penn State	6-2	10-2	117.7
Ohio State	7-1	10-2	117.6
Iowa	6-2	10-2	114.8
Wisconsin	5-3	8-3	105.3
Michigan State	4-4	6-6	101.5
Northwestern	5-3	8-4	99.3
Purdue	4-4	5-7	99.0
Minnesota	3-5	6-6	97.9
Michigan	1-7	5-7	96.6
Illinois	2-6	3-7	95.4
Indiana	1-7	4-8	90.9

 

The Big 10 season is basically over.  Illinois has a couple of non-conference games remaining, and the only important factor in that is they play Cincinnati this weekend.  Wisconsin goes to Hawaii in two weeks, and the Outback Bowl bid could be riding on them winning the game.

 

It is almost a foregone conclusion that a second Big 10 team, either Iowa or Penn State, will receive an at-large BCS Bowl bid.  So, there will be seven teams available for eight bowls.  The Pizza Bowl (formerly Motor City Bowl) will have to look elsewhere and may be forced to invite two MAC teams.

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	5-2	8-3	116.7
Missouri	3-4	7-4	104.7
Kansas	1-6	5-6	104.0
Kansas State	4-4	6-6	99.4
Colorado	2-5	3-8	96.8
Iowa State	3-5	6-6	94.9
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	7-0	11-0	137.0
Oklahoma	4-3	6-5	122.5
Texas Tech	4-3	7-4	118.8
Oklahoma State	6-1	9-2	115.4
Texas A&M	3-4	6-5	100.6
Baylor	1-6	4-7	95.7

 

Nebraska and Texas will face off in the Big 12 Championship Game, and the Cornhuskers may have a shot at pulling off a huge upset.  We give the ‘Huskers about a 15% chance of frustrating the Longhorn offense and win ugly.  If so, then another team from the Lone Star State will benefit.

 

After beginning the season at 5-0, Kansas finds itself in a must-win situation against Missouri at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.  They must earn The Brass Drum to earn a bowl bid.

 

The most important game though will be the Oklahoma and Oklahoma State game in Norman.  If the Cowboys beat the Sooners, they will more than likely earn an at-large BCS Bowl Bid at the expense of Boise State.  The Sooners must win to guarantee themselves a winning season.  The PiRate Ratings have had a devil of a time with OU this year.  Even at 6-5, their power rating keeps them in the top 10.  It’s hit or miss with them, as they showed how strong they are when they took Texas to the final gun.

 

If Kansas wins over Missouri, there will be 10 bowl eligible teams for eight guaranteed bowl spots (nine if Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma).  Look for Iowa State to be the odd team out of the mix.

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	5-2	7-4	104.1
East Carolina	6-1	7-4	103.8
Southern Mississippi	5-2	7-4	101.0
Marshall	4-3	6-5	95.6
U A B	4-3	5-6	91.0
Memphis	1-6	2-9	82.2
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	5-2	9-2	105.2
Tulsa	2-5	4-7	92.8
S M U	5-2	6-5	90.1
U T E P	2-5	3-8	87.6
Rice	2-5	2-9	79.9
Tulane	1-6	3-8	69.4

 

Welcome to the conference where everything changes weekly.  With SMU losing to Marshall, the door opened once again for Houston to ascend to the CUSA Championship Game.  A win over Rice is all that’s needed, but all of a sudden the Owls have found their way.  It could be an interesting game—at least for a half.

 

The East Division championship will be decided this weekend when Southern Miss visits East Carolina.

 

UAB can gain bowl eligibility with a win over  Central Florida, but it may be a moot point.  There are only five guaranteed bowl spots with a sixth if Army fails to earn the Eagle Bank Bowl bid.  Six CUSA teams are already bowl eligible, and the Blazers cannot compete with Marshall or SMU in fanbase.

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-5	106.1
Navy		8-3	103.2
Army		5-6	82.0

 

All three independents are still in the bowl mix, but as of now, only Navy is guaranteed a spot.  Notre Dame must beat Stanford to get to 7-5 and earn priority over every other possible at-large team.  At 6-6, they more than likely will find themselves out of the picture as there will be enough seven-win teams to fill the at-large spots.

 

Army must beat Navy to earn the Eagle Bank Bowl bid.  Navy has won seven in a row in this series, so it should be one of the best in this series in many years.

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	7-0	9-2	103.8
Buffalo	2-5	4-7	92.1
Ohio U	6-1	8-3	91.9
Bowling Green	5-2	6-5	91.0
Kent St.	4-3	6-5	85.0
Akron	1-6	2-9	81.4
Miami (O)	1-7	1-11	76.3
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	7-0	9-2	108.5
Northern Illinois	5-2	7-4	95.2
Western Michigan	4-3	5-6	88.2
Toledo	3-4	5-6	87.5
Ball State	1-6	1-10	81.0
Eastern Michigan	0-7	0-11	74.3

 

Central Michigan has already clinched the West Division, and the Chippewas will play the winner of this week’s Ohio U-Temple game in the MAC Championship Game. 

 

Two teams will be playing for that important seventh win this week.  Bowling Green hosts Toledo, and Kent State hosts Buffalo.

 

The MAC gets three guaranteed bowl bids and will get a fourth if Duke fails to beat Wake Forest and earn an Eagle Bank Bowl bid.   That’s where the Bowling Green and Kent State games come into play.  Both could earn bowl bids with wins, and one could even play in the Pizza Bowl against another MAC team.

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	7-0	11-0	125.3
B Y U	6-1	9-2	111.6
Utah	6-1	9-2	107.2
Air Force	5-3	7-5	100.7
Wyoming	3-4	5-6	87.6
UNLV	2-5	4-7	86.8
Colo. State	0-7	3-8	86.4
S. D. State	2-5	4-7	85.2
New Mexico	1-6	1-10	77.9

 

TCU will manhandle New Mexico this week and then hope that either Texas A&M or Nebraska can upset Texas, Florida State can upset Florida, or Auburn can upset Alabama.  The Horned Frogs need two of the big three teams ahead of them to lose.  The loser of the SEC Championship Game means that either Texas must lose this week or next or the winner of the SEC Championship Game must lose this week.  If one of these events happen, then TCU will be playing for the national championship in January.  It’s hard to believe that this program was once as weak as Syracuse, Vanderbilt, and Washington State are today.

 

The one team still trying to gain bowl eligibility is Wyoming.  The Cowboys must beat Colorado State in Ft. Collins this week, and these two teams truly put the “war” in “Border War.”  It’s not a given that Wyoming can top the 3-8 Rams.

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	7-1	9-2	119.7
Southern Cal	4-3	7-3	116.9
Stanford	6-3	7-4	116.7
California	5-3	8-3	114.6
Oregon St.	6-2	8-3	112.1
Arizona	4-3	6-4	111.4
U C L A	3-5	6-5	106.1
Arizona St.	2-6	4-7	102.1
Washington	2-5	3-7	97.3
Wash. St.	0-8	1-10	71.1

 

For the first time ever, the winner of the “Civil War” game between Oregon and Oregon State will earn the Rose Bowl bid.  The Ducks and Beavers are one of the best rivalry games in college football, and I’d love to have a 50-yard line seat next week in Eugene.

 

The Pac-10 receives six automatic bowl bids, but there are seven bowl eligible teams.  It looks like UCLA will miss out this year unless they can upset USC.  Arizona must beat either Arizona State or USC to get to seven wins.  If both the Bruins and Wildcats win seven games, then expect to see the Pac-10 receiving an extra bid to a western bowl.

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	8-0	11-0	133.1
Tennessee	3-4	6-5	110.7
Georgia	4-4	6-5	108.2
South Carolina	3-5	6-5	108.2
Kentucky	3-4	7-4	104.6
Vanderbilt	0-8	2-10	93.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	7-0	11-0	130.4
Ole Miss	4-3	8-3	116.5
Arkansas	3-4	7-4	115.5
L S U	4-3	8-3	112.5
Auburn	3-4	7-4	105.3
Mississippi State	2-5	4-7	100.9

 

This is a monster conference!  With Alabama and Florida headed to Atlanta to play what will be the “Game Of The Decade” (assuming both win this week), it is a given that the loser will still play in a BCS Bowl.  It isn’t completely out of the realm that if the SEC Championship game goes to overtime or is decided in regulation by a point, and if Texas loses to either Texas A&M or Nebraska, that Alabama and Florida could meet in a rematch for all the marbles.

 

With 10 bowl eligible teams, the SEC will place all 10 in bowls.  There will be a lot of last minute shuffling because there isn’t much difference between team number three and team number 10.

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	7-0	8-3	98.4
Middle Tennessee	6-1	8-3	94.8
Louisiana-Monroe	5-2	6-5	88.2
Arkansas State	1-5	2-8	86.6
U. of Louisiana	4-3	6-5	84.3
Florida Atlantic	3-3	3-7	83.2
Florida International	3-4	3-8	81.7
North Texas	1-6	2-9	76.0
Western Kentucky	0-6	0-10	73.3

 

This league is almost assured of earning a second bowl bid this year.  Troy will play in the New Orleans Bowl, but Middle Tennessee will get an at-large bid somewhere.  Both Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe can get to seven wins, but it will take big upsets for both to do so.  ULL plays Troy, while ULM plays MTSU.

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	6-0	11-0	120.8
Nevada	7-0	8-3	108.7
Fresno State	6-2	7-4	99.0
Louisiana Tech	2-5	3-8	97.2
Utah State	2-5	3-8	91.2
Idaho	4-3	7-4	90.3
Hawaii	3-5	5-6	85.1
San Jose State	0-6	1-9	82.1
New Mexico State	1-5	3-8	70.0

 

Here’s where things should get interesting.  Boise State is a win over Nevada away from being 12-0 and the proverbial odd team out.  If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, the Cowboys will steal the last BCS Bowl bid at the Broncos’ expense.  Then, watch for the United States Government to put their messy fingers into the college football pigpen. 

 

Before we get into this mess, Boise State has to beat Nevada.  The Wolf Pack is not a pushover, and it could easily take 50 or more points to win this game.

 

Of course, if the Sooners win over OSU, then it looks favorable for BSU getting into the field.  Then, they would be competing against a one or two-loss Big East team and maybe a two-loss Georgia Tech team.

 

If Boise State moves up, then the WAC is safe with four bowls for four bowl eligible teams.

 

Hawaii could still sneak into the mix, but they would have to beat Navy and Wisconsin.  We don’t see that happening.

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 24		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
WESTERN MICHIGAN	Ball State	10.2	31-21	10
Thursday, November 26		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Texas	TEXAS A&M	32.9	54-21	21
Friday, November 27		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Rutgers	LOUISVILLE	6.5	28-21	5
CINCINNATI	Illinois	22.5	37-14	25
CENTRAL MICHIGAN	Northern Illinois	16.3	28-12	12
AKRON	Eastern Michigan	9.8	34-24	13
BOWLING GREEN	Toledo	6	40-34	11
COLORADO STATE	Wyoming	1.8	23-21	0
Buffalo	KENT STATE	3.9	28-24	-1
Temple	OHIO U	8.9	30-21	3
Alabama	AUBURN	22.6	33-10	12
Nebraska	COLORADO	16.9	24-7	12
TULSA	Memphis	13.6	38-24	12
Pittsburgh	WEST VIRGINIA	8.6	28-19	3
BOISE STATE	Nevada	15.4	45-30	16
Saturday, November 28		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
CONNECTICUT	Syracuse	11.5	28-16	12
Wake Forest	DUKE	2.1	24-22	-1
North Carolina	N. C. STATE	8.5	26-17	12
Clemson	SOUTH CAROLINA	3.8	31-27	6
Ole Miss	MISSISSIPPI STATE	13.1	34-20	6
OKLAHOMA	Oklahoma State	9.6	38-28	5
T C U	New Mexico	50.9	51-0	43
EAST CAROLINA	Southern Miss	5.8	34-28	6
Central Florida	ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM	10.4	38-28	5
ARKANSAS STATE	North Texas	13.3	34-21	8
S M U	Tulane	23.7	41-17	18
Marshall	U T E P	5.0	35-30	7
Arizona	ARIZONA STATE	6.8	27-20	6
FLORIDA	Florida State	27.9	38-10	21
Missouri  (n)	Kansas	0.7	31-30	3
Boston College	MARYLAND	12.5	34-21	10
Miami-Fl	SOUTH FLORIDA	10.6	28-17	4
Virginia Tech	VIRGINIA	21.2	38-17	15
FLORIDA ATLANTIC	Western Kentucky	12.9	27-14	16
Middle Tennessee	UL-MONROE	3.6	31-27	4
B  Y  U	Utah	7.1	34-27	4
IDAHO	Utah State	2.1	34-32	6
Texas Tech (n)	Baylor	23.1	42-19	18
WASHINGTON	Washington State	28.9	42-13	19
Tennessee	KENTUCKY	3.1	27-24	-1
L  S  U	Arkansas	0.0	27-27 ot	3
Troy	UL-LAFAYETTE	11.1	35-24	9
GEORGIA TECH	Georgia	15.6	44-28	16
HOUSTON	Rice	27.8	49-21	29
SAN JOSE STATE	New Mexico St.	15.1	35-20	7
STANFORD	Notre Dame	13.6	42-28	9
U  N  L  V	San Diego State	4.6	28-23	5
SOUTHERN CAL	U  c  l  a	13.5	28-14	10
Navy	HAWAII	14.1	45-31	12

 

 

Bowl Speculations

Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4	Wyoming	WAC #3	Nevada
St. Petersburg	Big East #6	Connecticut	C-USA #5	Central Fla
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1	Troy	C-USA #4	Southern Miss
Las Vegas	MWC #1	B Y U	Pac 10 #4 or 5	Stanford
Poinsettia	MWC #2	Utah	Pac 10 #6	Arizona
Hawaii	WAC	Fresno St.	C-USA	Houston
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #7	(Bowling Green)	MAC #1 or 2	Temple
Meineke Car Care	ACC #5-6-7	Boston College	Big East #3	West Virginia
Emerald	Pac 10 #4 or 5	Oregon State	ACC #5-6-7	Florida State
Music City	SEC #6 or 7	Kentucky	ACC #5-6-7	North Carolina
Independence	SEC #8	Georgia	Big 12 #7	Kansas State
Eagle Bank	ACC #8	Duke	Army/C-USA	(Marshall)
Champs Sports	ACC #4	Miami-Fl	Big 10 #5	Northwestern
Humanitarian	WAC #1	Idaho	MWC	(Kent State)
Holiday	Big 12 #3	Nebraska	Pac 10 #2	Southern Cal
Armed Forces	C-USA #3	S M U	MWC #3	Air Force
Sun	Pac 10 #3	California	Big 12 #5 or Big East #2	Oklahoma
Texas	Big 12 #8	Texas A&M	Navy or C-USA	NAVY
Insight.com	Big 12 #6	Missouri	Big 10 #6	Minnesota
Chick-fil-A	SEC #5	Auburn	ACC #2	Va. Tech
Outback	SEC #3 or 4	Tennessee	Big 10 #3	Wisconsin
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Iowa	SEC #2	Ole Miss
Gator	Big East #2 or Big 12 #5	Cincinnati	ACC #3	Ga. Tech
Rose	BCS Pac10	Stanford	BCS Big 10	OHIO STATE
Sugar	BCS SEC	(Florida)	BCS At-Large	Boise State
International	Big East #5	Rutgers	MAC #3	Ohio U
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Nebraska	SEC #3 or 4	L S U
Papajohns.com	Big East #4	South Florida	SEC #9	South Carolina
Liberty	SEC #6 or 7	Arkansas	C-USA #1	East Carolina
Alamo	Big 10 #4	Texas Tech	Big 12 #4	Michigan St.
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	(Penn State)	BCS At-Large	T C U
Orange	BCS ACC	Clemson	BCS At-Large	Pittsburgh
G M A C	ACC #9	(Middle Tenn)	MAC	Central Mich.
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	Alabama	*** BCS #2 ***	Texas

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 17-21, 2009

Down The Stretch They Come

 

November has certainly already seen a host of upsets in the college football world, and we here at the PiRate Ratings believe big surprises are still to come.  With six undefeated teams (Florida, Alabama, Texas, TCU, Cincinnati, and Boise State), we see at least two falling before the bowl season.  Obviously, either Alabama or Florida must lose. The last time five teams finished the regular season winning every game was 1951, when Maryland, Tennessee, Michigan State, San Francisco, and Princeton did the trick.

 

The first wave of rivalry games begin this week, topped off by “The Big Game” in Palo Alto between Stanford and Cal.  The Cardinal now have a shot at winning the Pac-10 and earning a trip to Pasadena to face Ohio State.

 

Speaking of the Buckeyes, Ohio State ventures to the Big House to take on Michigan.  The Wolverines must win to gain bowl eligibility, and a loss will send several dozen more Maize & Blue fans to www.firerrod.com.

 

NCAA Top 25 For November 16, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	136.9	10	0
2	Florida	131.9	10	0
3	Alabama	129.9	9	0
4	Oklahoma	129.5	6	4
5	T C U	125.0	10	0
6	Georgia Tech	121.5	10	1
7	Boise St.	120.2	10	0
8	Oregon	119.9	8	2
9	Va. Tech	118.6	7	3
10	Stanford	118.0	7	3
11	Ohio St.	117.9	9	2
12	Nebraska	117.5	7	3
13	Okla. St.	117.0	8	2
14	Southern Cal	116.9	7	3
15	Ole Miss	116.7	7	3
16	Miami (Fla.)	116.1	7	3
17	Pittsburgh	115.6	9	1
18	Clemson	115.4	7	3
19	Cincinnati	115.2	10	0
20	Penn St.	115.1	9	2
21	Iowa	115.1	9	2
22	Arkansas	115.0	6	4
23	California	113.3	7	3
24	L  S  U	112.3	8	2
25	Texas Tech	112.3	6	4
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	5-2	7-3	115.4
Boston College	4-2	7-3	110.6
Florida State	3-4	5-5	109.3
Wake Forest	2-5	4-7	104.0
North Carolina State	1-5	4-6	102.1
Maryland	1-5	2-8	90.7
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Georgia Tech	7-1	10-1	121.5
Virginia Tech	4-2	7-3	118.6
Miami-FL	4-3	7-3	116.1
North Carolina	3-3	7-3	109.6
Duke	3-3	5-5	99.2
Virginia	2-5	3-7	94.9

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Pittsburgh	5-0	9-1	115.6
Cincinnati	6-0	10-0	115.2
West Virginia	3-2	7-3	104.5
Rutgers	2-2	7-2	104.2
Connecticut	1-4	4-5	103.1
South Florida	2-3	6-3	102.9
Syracuse	0-5	3-7	92.5
Louisville	1-4	4-6	91.8

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	6-1	9-2	117.9
Penn State	5-2	9-2	115.1
Iowa	5-2	9-2	115.1
Wisconsin	5-2	8-2	106.1
Michigan State	4-3	6-5	104.1
Northwestern	4-3	7-4	98.5
Minnesota	3-4	6-5	97.6
Purdue	3-4	4-7	96.8
Michigan	1-6	5-6	96.3
Illinois	2-6	3-7	95.4
Indiana	1-6	4-7	93.1

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	4-2	7-3	117.5
Missouri	2-4	6-4	104.6
Kansas	1-5	5-5	104.1
Kansas State	4-3	6-5	98.6
Colorado	2-4	3-7	95.2
Iowa State	3-4	6-5	95.0
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	6-0	10-0	136.9
Oklahoma	4-2	6-4	129.5
Oklahoma State	5-1	8-2	117.0
Texas Tech	3-3	6-4	112.3
Baylor	1-5	4-6	101.2
Texas A&M	2-4	5-5	95.1

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
East Carolina	5-1	6-4	103.8
Southern Mississippi	4-2	6-4	100.9
Central Florida	4-2	6-4	98.1
Marshall	3-3	5-5	95.5
U A B	4-2	5-5	91.0
Memphis	1-5	2-8	83.0
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	4-2	8-2	104.4
Tulsa	2-4	4-6	92.9
S M U	5-1	6-4	90.2
U T E P	2-4	3-7	89.9
Rice	1-5	1-9	77.3
Tulane	1-5	3-7	75.4

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-4	107.1
Navy		8-3	103.2
Army		3-7	81.9

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	6-0	8-2	101.4
Ohio U	5-1	7-3	91.3
Bowling Green	4-2	5-5	90.6
Buffalo	1-5	3-7	90.5
Kent St.	4-2	5-5	87.4
Akron	1-5	2-8	81.8
Miami (O)	1-6	1-10	77.9
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	6-0	8-2	107.1
Northern Illinois	5-1	7-3	95.8
Western Michigan	4-3	5-6	88.2
Toledo	2-4	4-6	86.3
Ball State	1-5	1-9	82.4
Eastern Michigan	0-6	0-10	75.5

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	6-0	10-0	125.0
B Y U	5-1	8-2	110.9
Utah	5-1	8-2	105.8
Air Force	5-2	7-4	101.3
Colo. State	0-6	3-7	88.5
Wyoming	3-3	5-5	87.9
UNLV	2-5	4-7	86.8
S. D. State	2-4	4-6	86.6
New Mexico	0-6	0-10	75.8

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	6-1	8-2	119.9
Stanford	6-2	7-3	118.0
Southern Cal	4-3	7-3	116.9
California	4-3	7-3	113.3
Arizona	4-2	6-3	111.2
Oregon St.	5-2	7-3	109.5
U C L A	2-5	5-5	105.6
Arizona St.	2-5	4-6	102.6
Washington	2-5	3-7	97.3
Wash. St.	0-7	1-9	73.7

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	8-0	10-0	131.9
Tennessee	2-4	5-5	111.3
Georgia	4-3	6-4	109.2
South Carolina	3-5	6-5	108.2
Kentucky	2-4	6-4	103.6
Vanderbilt	0-7	2-9	92.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	7-0	10-0	129.9
Ole Miss	3-3	7-3	116.7
Arkansas	2-4	6-4	115.0
L S U	4-2	8-2	112.3
Auburn	3-4	7-4	105.3
Mississippi State	2-4	4-6	101.4

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	6-0	7-3	97.6
Middle Tennessee	5-1	7-3	92.4
Louisiana-Monroe	5-1	6-4	89.3
Arkansas State	1-4	2-7	89.0
Florida Atlantic	3-2	3-6	84.0
U. of Louisiana	3-3	5-5	83.2
Florida International	3-4	3-7	82.9
North Texas	1-6	2-8	76.1
Western Kentucky	0-6	0-10	73.3

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	5-0	10-0	120.2
Nevada	6-0	7-3	107.1
Fresno State	5-2	6-4	99.7
Louisiana Tech	2-4	3-7	96.5
Utah State	2-4	3-7	91.8
Idaho	4-3	7-4	90.3
Hawaii	2-5	4-6	85.0
San Jose State	0-5	1-8	82.2
New Mexico State	1-4	3-7	71.6

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Wednesday, November 18		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Central Michigan	BALL STATE	22.2	38-16	20
Buffalo	MIAMI (O)	10.1	27-17	3
Thursday, November 19		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
OKLAHOMA STATE	Colorado	24.8	38-13	21
Friday, November 20		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
BOWLING GREEN	Akron	11.5	35-23	15
TOLEDO	E  M  U	13.8	41-27	15
Boise State	UTAH STATE	25.4	35-10	25
Saturday, November 21		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Ohio State	MICHIGAN	18.1	35-17	16
Northern Illinois	OHIO U	1.5	26-24	-1
CLEMSON	Virginia	23.8	34-10	19
Wisconsin	NORTHWESTERN	4.6	28-23	7
IOWA	Minnesota	20.5	35-14	14
SOUTH FLORIDA	Louisville	14.1	24-10	12
Rutgers	SYRACUSE	8.7	30-21	12
Purdue	INDIANA	1.0	35-34	0
FLORIDA STATE	Maryland	21.6	40-18	18
BOSTON COLLEGE	North Carolina	4.0	21-17	3
VIRGINIA TECH	North Carolina State	19.8	34-14	21
MISSOURI	Iowa State	12.6	34-21	9
TENNESSEE	Vanderbilt	21.8	28-6	19
GEORGIA	Kentucky	8.6	33-24	6
TEMPLE	Kent State	17.0	38-21	13
T  c  u	WYOMING	34.1	44-10	26
ARKANSAS	Mississippi State	16.6	45-28	10
NOTRE DAME	Connecticut	7.0	35-28	6
Oregon State	WASHINGTON STATE	33.1	40-7	25
Penn State	MICHIGAN STATE	8.0	31-23	5
U  C  L  A	Arizona State	6.0	27-21	5
STANFORD	California	7.2	30-23	7
OLE MISS	L  s  u	7.4	31-24	1
B  Y  U	Air Force	12.6	27-14	7
EAST CAROLINA	U  a  b	15.8	37-21	10
NEBRASKA	Kansas State	22.4	31-9	15
Oklahoma	TEXAS TECH	13.2	34-21	2
Baylor	TEXAS A&M	3.1	27-24	-5
U  t  e  p	RICE	10.1	37-27	5
UTAH	San Diego State	22.2	35-13	21
FRESNO STATE	La. Tech	6.5	31-24	11
Colorado State	NEW MEXICO	9.7	24-14	8
Oregon	ARIZONA	5.4	31-26	4
MARSHALL	S  m  u	8.3	31-23	4
SOUTHERN MISS	Tulsa	11.0	31-20	9
TEXAS	Kansas	36.3	50-14	29
MIAMI (FLA)	Duke	19.9	37-17	17
HOUSTON	Memphis	24.4	55-31	23
CENTRAL FLORIDA	Tulane	25.7	40-14	20
Nevada	NEW MEXICO ST.	32.8	50-17	22
SAN JOSE ST.	Hawaii	0.7	28-27	-3
FLORIDA	Florida Int’l	52.0	52-0	41
Army	NORTH TEXAS	2.3	24-22	0
TROY	Florida Atlantic	16.6	34-17	14
UL-Monroe	UL-LAFAYETTE	3.6	27-23	2
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Arkansas State	6.4	28-22	13

 

Bowl Speculating

 

Ohio State has become the second team to know where they will be bowling this year and the first team to clinch a BCS Bowl Bid.  However, the weekend may have muddied up the bowl projections more than helped clear things up.

 

The Atlantic Coast Conference

Georgia Tech continues to impress every week, and the Yellow Jackets have clinched the Coastal Division championship.  Clemson needs only to beat Virginia to earn the Atlantic Division title.  It is our opinion that Clemson will beat Georgia Tech in a rematch for the ACC Championship and Orange Bowl Bid.  At 11-2, the Yellow Jackets could still gain an at-large BCS Bowl Bid, but it would have to come at the expense of a 13-0 Boise State team.  With Wake Forest being ousted from bowl talk, it looks like the ACC will come up at least one team short and possibly two.  Duke must beat Wake Forest to get to six wins and make it to their first bowl in 15 years.

 

1. Orange Bowl—Clemson

2. Chick-fil-A—Virginia Tech

3. Gator—Georgia Tech

4. Champs Sports—Miami (Fl)

5. Music City—North Carolina

6. Meineke Car Care—Boston College

7. Emerald—Florida State

8. Eagle Bank—Duke

9. GMAC—No Team Available

 

The Big East

Cincinnati just escaped against West Virginia, while Pittsburgh handled Notre Dame.  The Panthers game with the Mountaineers in the “Backyard Brawl” actually doesn’t matter this year.  The winner of the Pitt-Cincinnati game wins the championship.  We’ll go with Coach Dave Wannstedt’s Panthers.  Cincinnati could qualify as an at-large BCS team at 11-1, but we don’t think the big bowls will take the Bearcats.  That might be the final straw for Brian Kelly in the Queen City.  He may bolt for South Bend or even Ann Arbor.

 

1. Orange Bowl—Pittsburgh

2. Sun—Cincinnati

3. Meineke Car Care—Rutgers

4. Papa John’s—South Florida

5. International—West Virginia

6. St. Petersburg—Connecticut

 

The Big Ten

Ohio State clinched the Big Ten Championship and Rose Bowl bid with the overtime win over Iowa.  It now looks like the second best team in this league will earn a last-minute BCS at-large bid.  If Iowa wins this week against Minnesota, the Hawkeyes should get that bid.

 

Michigan will not be bowl eligible after losing at home to Ohio State this weekend, so if the Big 10 gets a second BCS bowl team, they will come up one short.

 

1. Rose-OHIO STATE (accepted bid)

2. Fiesta—Iowa

3. Capital One—Wisconsin

4. Outback—Penn State

5. Alamo—Michigan State

6. Champs Sports—Minnesota

7. Insight—Northwestern

8. Pizza—No team available

 

The Big 12

Texas should quickly dispose of Kansas and Texas A&M to reach the Big 12 Title game, but a possible game against Nebraska could be quite interesting.  For now, we will stick with the notion that the Longhorns will run the table and make it to the National Championship Game.  If the Cornhuskers win out, they should still garner the Cotton Bowl bid if they lose to Texas.  With Iowa State winning its sixth game, and the only chance this conference has of getting a second team in the BCS being a Nebraska upset of Texas, we believe there will be one excess team.  However, that extra team will be 6-6 and out of luck.

 

1. National Championship—Texas

2. Cotton–Nebraska

3. Holiday—Oklahoma

4. Alamo—Oklahoma State

5. Sun—Missouri

6. Insight—Texas Tech

7. Independence—Kansas State

8. Texas—Texas A&M

 

Iowa State out of luck at 6-6

 

Conference USA

As Chester A. Riley would have said, “What a revoltin’ development this is!”  Houston’s loss to Central Florida has thrust SMU into first place in the West Division.  If Coach June Jones’ Mustangs beat Marshall this week, they are in the CUSA Championship Game.  Central Florida is now thickly in the East Division race, but it is now a four-team battle.  If UAB beats East Carolina and UCF, the Blazers would win the division title.  Who would have ever thought that on November 16, the CUSA Championship Game could still be a battle between SMU and UAB?

 

1. Liberty—East Carolina

2. Hawaii—Houston

3. Armed Forces—S M U

4. New Orleans—Southern Miss

5. St. Petersburg—Central Florida

 

Marshall & UAB at 6-6 will miss out on bowl bids

 

Independents

There’s no confusion here.  Navy has earned a Texas Bowl bid.  Army has failed to earn the Eagle Bank Bowl bid that is reserved for them this year.  Notre Dame’s BCS bowl hopes are gone and barring wins over both Connecticut and Stanford, the Irish won’t earn the Sun or Gator Bowl bids that they could receive.  However, with one more win, they become the top non-BCS at-large bowl hopeful.

 

1. Texas—Navy

2. Eagle Bank—Notre Dame (at-large)

 

Mid-American

The MAC will benefit from all the bowls that will need to seek at-large participants.  This league receives three automatic bowl bids, but we expect five schools to go bowling.  Central Michigan played in the Motor City Bowl last year (now the Pizza Bowl), so the Chippewas will probably be sent south to Mobile.

 

The Pizza Bowl will not have a Big 10 representative, and while they’d love to lure Notre Dame, the Irish will go to the highest bidder.  That will force them to invite a second MAC team.

 

1. G M A C—Central Michigan

2. Pizza—Temple

3. International—Ohio U

4. Humanitarian—Northern Illinois (at-large)

5. Pizza—Bowling Green (at-large)

 

Mountain West

T C U plays at Wyoming this weekend, and the Cowboys will be ready to give them all they can handle.  We think TCU will win by double digits, but it is one of those ambush situations.  A home finale with winless New Mexico will be little more than a scrimmage.

 

BYU and Utah close the regular season with their rivalry match, and the winner should wind up in Vegas.  Air Force has wrapped up the fourth bowl bid, and Wyoming is one win away from sneaking in as the fifth.  We expect them to beat Colorado State and get it.

 

1. Fiesta—T C U

2. Las Vegas—Utah

3. Poinsettia—B Y U

4. Armed Forces—Air Force

5. New Mexico—Wyoming

6. Humanitarian—No team available

 

Pac-10

This is another interesting race.  If Arizona beats Oregon this week, and Stanford beats California, then Arizona, Oregon, Oregon State, and Stanford will be tied for first with two conference losses.  Arizona would then win the Pac-10 and get the Rose Bowl bid.  However, the Wildcats must finish at Arizona State and at Southern Cal, and we see them failing to get to 7-2.  If Arizona beats Oregon, and Stanford beats Cal, then the Cardinal would be heading to Pasadena, unless Oregon State could win at Oregon “The Civil War.”  At 7-2, Oregon State gets the tiebreaker over Stanford.

 

1. Rose—Stanford

2. Holiday—Oregon

3. Sun—Southern Cal

4. Las Vegas—Arizona

5. Emerald—Oregon State

6. Poinsettia—California

 

U C L A will finish 6-6 and not receive a bid

 

Southeastern

Alabama will practice with Chattanooga this week, and then finish the regular season at Auburn.  It could be interesting for a half, but the Tide will head to Atlanta at 12-0.  Florida also has a breather with Florida International, but they have a tough finale with Florida State.  We believe the Seminoles have a small shot at pulling off the big upset.

 

With two BCS bowl bids virtually a certainty, the SEC will send 10 teams to bowls this year.

 

1. National Championship—Alabama

2. Sugar—Florida

3. Capital One—Ole Miss

4. Cotton—L S U

5. Outback—Tennessee

6. Chick-fil-A—Auburn

7. Music City—Georgia

8. Liberty—Arkansas

9. Independence—South Carolina

10. Papa John’s—Kentucky

 

Sunbelt

Troy has just about clinched the conference championship, so they will receive the sole automatic bowl bid.  Middle Tennessee has already reached the magic seven win mark, so the Blue Raiders will get an at-large bid.

 

1. New Orleans—Troy

2. G M A C—Middle Tennessee (at-large)

 

Western Athletic

Boise State cannot chalk up a perfect regular season just yet.  The Broncos still must face the most potent offense in the nation.  Nevada must play at Bronco Stadium, so Boise State should win and finish 13-0.  We strongly believe that while the BCS Bowls would rather invite a two-loss team from one of the big six conferences, they will have their arms pulled and be highly coerced into inviting a second non-BCS team into the BCS Bowl structure.  It’s funny how the threat of a Justice Department investigation can determine bowl participants.

 

1. Sugar—Boise State

2. Hawaii—Fresno State

3. New Mexico—Nevada

4. Humanitarian—Idaho

 

• * = At-large selection
• ALL CAPS AND BOLD = ACCEPTED BID

Bowl	Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	Wyoming	vs.	Nevada
St. Petersburg	Connecticut	vs.	Central Fla
New Orleans	Troy	vs.	Southern Miss
Las Vegas	Utah	vs.	Arizona
Poinsettia	B Y U	vs.	California
Hawaii	Fresno St.	vs.	Houston
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Bowling Green *	vs.	Temple
Meineke Car Care	Boston College	vs.	Rutgers
Emerald	Oregon State	vs.	Florida State
Music City	Georgia	vs.	North Carolina
Independence	South Carolina	vs.	Kansas State
Eagle Bank	Duke	vs.	Notre Dame *
Champs Sports	Miami-Fl	vs.	Northwestern
Humanitarian	Idaho	vs.	Northern Illinois *
Holiday	Oklahoma	vs.	Oregon
Armed Forces	S M U	vs.	Air Force
Sun	Southern Cal	vs.	Missouri
Texas	Texas A&M	vs.	NAVY
Insight.com	Texas Tech	vs.	Minnesota
Chick-fil-A	Auburn	vs.	Va. Tech
Outback	Tennessee	vs.	Penn State
Capital One	Wisconsin	vs.	Ole Miss
Gator	Cincinnati	vs.	Ga. Tech
Rose	Stanford	vs.	OHIO STATE
Sugar	Florida	vs.	Boise State
International	West Virginia	vs.	Ohio U
Cotton	Nebraska	vs.	L S U
Papajohns.com	South Florida	vs.	Kentucky
Liberty	Arkansas	vs.	East Carolina
Alamo	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Michigan St.
Fiesta	Iowa	vs.	T C U
Orange	Clemson	vs.	Pittsburgh
G M A C	Middle Tennessee *	vs.	Central Mich.
National Championship	Alabama	vs.	Texas

 

Bowl Projections For November 2, 2009

Weekly Bowl Predictions

Monday, November 2, 2009

 

This will be a pivotal weekend in the bowl pecking orders, as several marquee games are on tap.  Two of the big three have easy games this week.  Texas will have little more than a workout against Central Florida, while Florida should have enough points on the board two possessions into the game to beat Vanderbilt.

 

Here’s a conference-by-conference outlook for this week.  Unlike many bowl projections, which use a system based on if the season ended today, the PiRate Bowl Projections looks ahead and predicts where the teams will be on December 6.

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

The Atlantic Division is still very much up-for-grabs with Boston College and Clemson tied for first and Florida State and Wake Forest just one game back.  We think Clemson can run the table and grab the division flag.  

 

Georgia Tech has a one game lead over Duke (yes, Duke), but they are tied in the loss column.  We see the Blue Devils having an excellent chance at becoming bowl eligible, but they aren’t going to run the table and win the Coastal Division.  Georgia Tech just edged Clemson in Atlanta, and we think CU would get revenge in an ACC Championship Game.

 

1. BCS Automatic (Orange)—Clemson

2. Chick-fil-A—Miami

3. Gator—Georgia Tech

4. Champ Sports—Virginia Tech

5. Music City—North Carolina

6. Champs Sports—Boston College

7. Emerald—Florida State

8. Eagle Bank—Duke

9. G M A C—No Team Available

 

Big East

Cincinnati is the darling this year, but we think they will stumble at Pittsburgh on December 5.  The Panthers have home games with Syracuse and Notre Dame and the backyard brawl game at West Virginia, and we think Dave Wannstedt’s team will win out to take the Big East Championship.  The question here is where a Cincinnati team at 11-1 would go.  We think the Bearcats would not garner an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl.

 

This conference will have a little shuffling to make sure there will be no rematch games in bowls.  West Virginia played both East Carolina and Marshall, and they will not play either CUSA team in a bowl

 

1. BCS Automatic (Orange)—Pittsburgh

2. Gator—Notre Dame

3. Meineke Car Care—Cincinnati

4. Papa John’s—West Virginia

5. International—Rutgers

6. St. Petersburg—South Florida

 

Big Ten

Iowa is the reincarnated version of Indiana in 1967, the epitome of cardiac comebacks.  That Indiana team finally fell at Minnesota in November, and the schedule is set for Iowa to have that type of game at Ohio State.  For now, we believe Ohio State doesn’t have the offensive talent to upset the Hawkeyes.

 

Penn State should edge Ohio State, but the season finale at Michigan State is definitely a trap game.  At 11-1, they are in a BCS Bowl for sure, but at 10-2, it becomes a little hazy.

 

The bottom four bowls will shuffle to find their best fit, as we see three 6-6 teams and one 7-5 team vying for those bids.  Michigan will trump the other three even with a 6-6 record.

 

1. BCS Automatic (Rose)—Iowa

1a. BCS At-large ( )—Penn State

2. Capital One—Wisconsin

3. Outback—Ohio State

4. Alamo—Michigan

5. Champs Sports—Minnesota

6. Insight—Michigan State

7. Pizza—Northwestern

 

Big 12

Texas is moving along like a steamroller going down hill.  The Longhorns close the season with Central Florida, Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M, and the Big 12 North Champion.  A&M may be the only team that can come close, so Mack Brown should get a chance to play for his second national championship in Pasadena.

 

Parity leaves this conference with a distinct possibility of having 10 bowl-eligible teams for eight bowls.  The two teams not receiving bids will be 6-6, so there isn’t a great chance either will earn a bowl.

 

1. BCS Automatic (National Championship)—Texas

2. Cotton—Oklahoma State

3. Holiday—Oklahoma

4. Alamo—Texas Tech

5. Sun—Nebraska

6. Insight—Texas A&M

7. Independence—Missouri

8. Texas—Kansas State

 

Bowl Eligible (at 6-6)

Kansas

Iowa State

 

Conference USA

This conference is a jigsaw puzzle.  East Carolina and Houston now appear to be on a collision course toward meeting in the conference championship game, but both teams face opponents that can upset them.  For now, we’ll stick with Case Keenum and the Cougars to win out and finish the regular season at 12-1.  Whether that could propel them out of the automatic bid to the Liberty Bowl to a better bowl, we don’t know.

 

1. Liberty—Houston

2. Hawaii—East Carolina

3. Armed Forces—S M U

4. New Orleans—Southern Miss

5. St. Petersburg—Marshall

 

Bowl Eligible (all at 6-6)

Tulsa

Central Florida

U A B

 

Independents

Notre Dame will not qualify as a BCS Bowl participant, so they will steal a spot from the Big East.  Navy is one win away from an automatic spot in the Texas Bowl, while Army has too much to do to get bowl eligible.

 

1. Gator Bowl—Notre Dame per Gator Bowl rules with Big East

2. Texas—Navy

3. Eagle Bank—No Team Available (Army falls short)

 

Mid-American

Temple and Central Michigan are headed to the MAC Championship Game, while Northern Illinois, Ohio, and Kent State  appear to be headed to the good kind of bowl eligibility (seven or more wins).  Unfortunately for this league, it now looks like the ACC will have an eligible team for this bowl, so the MAC won’t get a guaranteed fourth bid.  However, we see two teams finishing with seven or more wins and jumping ahead of all the 6-6 teams for any at-large bids.

 

The MAC doesn’t automatically send its overall champion to Detroit.  The Pizza Bowl gets first choice, but they don’t have to take the champion.  Central Michigan went there last year, so we think the Chippewas will head to Mobile instead.

 

1. Pizza—Northern Illinois

2. GMAC—Central Michigan

3. International—Temple

 

Bowl Eligible (7-5 or better)

Ohio U

Kent State

 

Mountain West

T C U closes with San Diego State, Utah, Wyoming, and New Mexico.  SDSU could give the Horned Frogs some competition for 15-25 minutes, but TCU will handle the Aztecs.  Utah is always tough, but the Utes don’t have the horses to win in Ft. Worth.  Wyoming can always surprise in Laramie in late November, but we think TCU will win.  At 12-0 and with road wins against Clemson and BYU, TCU should get a BCS Bowl bid even if Boise State finishes ahead of them in the BCS standings.

 

A. BCS At-Large (Fiesta)—T C U

1. Las Vegas—B Y U

2. Poinsettia—Utah

3. Armed Forces—Air Force

4. New Mexico—San Diego State

5. Humanitarian—No Team Available

 

Pac-10

If Southern Cal receives an at-large BCS bowl bid over a 12-0 TCU or Boise State, it will be highway robbery.  The Trojans could even lose another game, so we are picking them to fall short.  Oregon is in the driver’s seat, but Arizona still lurks in the bushes.  The Ducks must visit Tucson on November 21, and if the Wildcats win at Cal the week before, this game will be for first place in the Pac-10.  We think Oregon can lose this game and still win the championship.

 

1. BCS Automatic (Rose)—Oregon

2. Holiday—Southern Cal

3. Sun—California

4. Las Vegas—Arizona

5. Emerald—Stanford

6. Poinsettia—Oregon State

 

Bowl Eligible (6-6)

U C L A

 

Southeastern

This week, we are back to picking Florida to edge Alabama, but that could change again.  LSU is the clear cut third best team, but there’s a huge drop to the fourth place team.  This league will send 10 teams to bowls, with the bottom five teams finishing with 7-5 or 6-6 records.

 

1. BCS Automatic (National Championship Game)—Florida

1a. BCS At-large (Sugar)—Alabama

2. Capital One—L S U

3. Outback—Tennessee

4. Cotton—Auburn

5. Chick-fil-A—Ole Miss

6. Music City—Georgia

7. Liberty—Ole Miss

8. Independence—Kentucky

9. Papa John’s—South Carolina

 

Sunbelt

Troy has little in its path to securing another SBC title.  This league has only one automatic bowl bid.  Three more bowls guarantee a seven-win SBC team first priority if their contracted conference cannot provide a team, but we believe all three bowls will have a bowl-eligible team from each conference.

 

1. New Orleans—Troy

 

Bowl Eligible (7-5 or better)

Middle Tennessee

 

Western Athletic

Boise State has three games remaining against teams that can give them a run for their money.  A Friday night game this week at Louisiana Tech is a huge trap game, while home games against Idaho and Nevada could be interesting for awhile.  The Broncos should run the table in the regular season for the fourth time in six years.  A win over Pac-10 champ Oregon if the Ducks finish 11-1 should be enough to earn BSU an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl, even if TCU finishes ahead of them.  However, unscrupulous bowl sponsors wouldn’t be required to take the Broncos, even if TCU and Boise State finished 3^rd and 4^th in the final BCS Standings.

 

A. BCS At-Large (Sugar)—Boise State

1. Humanitarian—Idaho

2. New Mexico—Nevada

3. Hawaii—Fresno State

 

The BCS Bowls

National Championship Game—Texas vs. Florida

Fiesta Bowl—Penn State vs. T C U

Orange Bowl—Clemson vs. Pittsburgh

Sugar Bowl—Alabama vs. Boise State

Rose Bowl—Oregon vs. Iowa

 

With Florida finishing first in the BCS Standings, the Sugar Bowl will get the first at-large pick.  Even though Alabama went there last year, we see the Sugar Bowl officials taking the Tide once again.  The Fiesta Bowl would get the next at-large choice after losing Texas to the title game, and we believe they would take Penn State.  The Orange Bowl would then choose Pittsburgh over the rest of the field.  The Fiesta would then take TCU, and the Sugar Bowl would then have all the pressure to either do the right thing and take Boise State or the wrong thing and take a one or even two-loss team (Cincinnati, Southern Cal, Georgia Tech)

 

The Rest

First, let’s take care of the loose change.  There will be three bowls that will not have regularly contracted team available.  The GMAC Bowl will not have an available ACC team; the Eagle Bank Bowl will not have a bowl-eligible Army team; and the Humanitarian Bowl will not have an available Mountain West Team.

 

We expect there to be exactly three bowl-eligible teams with seven or more wins, and they will fill the three slots ahead of a host of 6-6 teams from BCS conferences.  Those three fortunate teams are Ohio U, Kent State, and Middle Tennessee.  

 

Note: Teams in asterisks are 7-win or better at-large bowl eligible teams

 

New Mexico	San Diego State	vs.	Nevada
St. Petersburg	South Florida	vs.	Marshall
New Orleans	Troy	vs.	Southern Miss
Las Vegas	B Y U	vs.	Arizona
Poinsettia	Utah	vs.	Oregon State
Hawaii	Fresno State	vs.	East Carolina
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Northern Illinois	vs.	Northwestern
Meineke Car Care	Boston College	vs.	Cincinnati
Emerald	Florida State	vs.	Stanford
Music City	North Carolina	vs.	Georgia
Independence	Kentucky	vs.	Missouri
Eagle Bank	Duke	vs.	Kent State
Champs Sports	Virginia Tech	vs.	Minnesota
Humanitarian	Idaho	vs.	Ohio U
Holiday	Southern Cal	vs.	Oklahoma
Armed Forces	Air Force	vs.	S M U
Sun	Nebraska	vs.	California
Texas	Navy	vs.	Kansas State
Insight.com	Michigan State	vs.	Texas A&M
Chick-fil-A	Miami-FL	vs.	Arkansas
Outback	Ohio State	vs.	Tennessee
Capital One	Wisconsin	vs.	L S U
Gator	Georgia Tech	vs.	Notre Dame
International	Rutgers	vs.	Temple
Cotton	Oklahoma State	vs.	Auburn
Papajohns.com	West Virginia	vs.	South Carolina
Liberty	Ole Miss	vs.	Houston
Alamo	Michigan	vs.	Texas Tech
G M A C	Central Michigan	vs.	Middle Tennessee

 

Bowl Projections For October 26, 2009

TCU and Boise State in Hectic Race For BCS Gold

 

The BCS bowl agreement only awards one guaranteed at-large invitation to a qualifying team from a non-BCS conference.  Two non-BCS teams can be selected for a BCS at-large bowl, but they can turn away a 12-0 team in favor of another team from a BCS conference.  Thus, if Boise State and TCU both finish 12-0, only one of the two will be guaranteed a spot in a BCS Bowl Game.  The other team could and will more than likely lose out to a 10-2 team from the Pac-10, Big 10, Big East, or SEC.

 

For our weekly Bowl Projections, we are going with TCU to finish a shade higher than Boise State and earn the automatic BCS Bowl bid.  We believe that Penn State, Southern Cal, and Florida will also earn at-large invitations, so Boise State will be excluded from the big bowls.  At 12-0, the Humanitarian won’t be good enough for the Broncos, so for the second season in a row, there will be some back room deals made.  Our bowl projections are the only ones that are factoring this as of now.

 

New Mexico: Utah vs. Nevada

This would be a great battle between Utah’s strong defense and Nevada’s eye-popping pistol offense.

 

St. Petersburg: Rutgers vs. Marshall

Mark Snyder was on the hot seat entering this season, but he has the Thundering Herd on track to finish with seven wins.  If Marshall can upset Central Florida this week, they could even jump into the CUSA Championship game.

 

New Orleans: Troy vs. UTEP

Mike Price has the Miners poised to win the CUSA’s West Division, as they already hold the tiebreaker advantage over Houston and Tulsa.  We expect them to lose in the conference championship game and slip to the Crescent City.

 

Las Vegas: Boise State vs. Cincinnati

What better place for an arranged marriage in a bowl than sin city?  We believe Boise State will run the table and, at 12-0, lose out in the BCS sweepstakes to a 10-2 team with more ticket-buying and media-garnering clout.  Like last year, the WAC will be shopping to move the Broncos up into a better bowl.  The Pac-10 will fall short by one spot if both Oregon and Southern Cal make BCS bowls and Stanford finishes 5-7. 

 

We believe Cincinnati will lose to Pittsburgh in the season finale, and the 11-1 Bearcats will also be shunned by the BCS in favor of a 10-2 team.  So, this million dollar payout bowl will set up a great match.

 

Poinsettia: B Y U vs. Oregon State

Any chance for a big bowl for these teams ended this past Saturday.  BYU’s pasting by TCU and Oregon State’s near miss at USC will move these teams down to lower tiered bowls.

 

Hawaii: Fresno State vs. Houston

Since Hawaii will not be bowl eligible this season, another WAC team will get the honors.  Fresno State would fit here quite comfortably.  As for Houston, the Cougars might deserve much better, but they still must play at Tulsa and at UCF, and they need UTEP to lose at least once.

 

Pizza (formerly Motor City): Minnesota vs. Northern Illinois

The Gophers have slipped quite a bit in recent weeks and need to recover just to gain bowl eligibility.  Northern Illinois won’t win the MAC, but we believe the Huskies will be the choice team for this bowl, sending the MAC Champ south to Mobile.

 

Meineke Car Care: Boston College vs. Connecticut

This would be an excellent regional game between teams that should be playing each other.  Connecticut would be the sixth Big East team to make a bowl, made possible by Cincinnati moving up to a better bowl than what would be available.

 

Emerald: U C L A vs. Florida State

This would be a decent attraction and a nice rematch of the 2006 game.  UCLA missed out on a bowl last year, and this could be Bobby Bowden’s final game, so it would be interesting.

 

Music City: South Carolina vs. North Carolina

These two teams played in the regular season last year, and it would be a great rivalry matchup in Nashville.  It’s a border war with two legendary coaches.

 

Independence: Kentucky vs. Kansas

These two basketball schools with familial ties would give this bowl its best matchup in years.

 

Eagle Bank: Kent State vs. Central Florida

These are two quasi at-large selections.  It looks like Army will finish 5-7 at best and fail to qualify.  If Army isn’t eligible, this bowl is supposed to take an at-large team from CUSA.  The ACC may not have a ninth team available, and this bowl is supposed to choose an at-large team from the MAC.  Kent State hasn’t been to a bowl since Coach Don James took them to the 1972 Tangerine Bowl (lost to Tampa).

 

Champ Sports: Georgia Tech vs. Michigan St.

Almost all other prognosticators are picking Georgia Tech to make it to the Orange Bowl.  We have an opposing view right now.  We think Clemson may very well run the table and oppose Tech in the ACC Championship Game.  Having already faced the spread option and actually beating themselves more than losing this game, we see CU getting revenge and plunging the Yellow Jackets to this bowl.

 

Humanitarian: Idaho vs. Kansas State

We place Idaho here after moving Boise State to a better locale.  The Vandals played here in their only bowl game 11 years ago, edging Southern Miss in a high-scoring affair.  Kansas State is the current leader in the Big 12 North, but with a concluding schedule of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska, we see them losing at least twice more.  Since the Big 12 will not produce an at-large BCS participant, we see nine bowl-eligible teams for eight spots.  The Wildcats are the odd team out and will have to go to the field of blue.

 

Holiday: Oklahoma vs. California

This might be a disappointment game as neither team will believe it a reward to play in this game after both had aspirations of greatness.

 

Armed Forces: Tulsa vs. Air Force

Tulsa’s high-powered passing game against Air Force’s option offense and strong defense will make this an interesting study in contrasts.  Air Force has been here two consecutive seasons, but for obvious reasons, they belong in this game most years.

 

Sun: Arizona vs. Texas Tech

This matchup should fill up the Sun Bowl as both teams wouldn’t have all that far to travel.  It would be a fresh pairing.

 

Texas: Texas A&M vs. Navy

Navy will automatically earn this bowl with a win over Temple this weekend.  Texas A&M joins the bowl talk after their upset over Texas Tech.  This would be an interesting and very high scoring game.

 

Insight.com: Missouri vs. Northwestern

Yes, these two teams played each other in the Alamo Bowl last year, but that game was the most exciting bowl game of all.  It would be a great rematch in a different venue.

 

Chick-fil-A: Tennessee vs. Virginia Tech

The Volunteers have now played the number one team close twice this season.  If they get by South Carolina this week, then watch out.  They could win out and move up to this game.  Interestingly, when Coach Lane Kiffin’s mentor, Pete Carroll, took over at Southern Cal, the Trojans followed this gameplan exactly, coming on strong to win out and get to seven wins.  Might Tennessee be poised to become the USC of the Southeast?

 

Outback: Ole Miss vs. Wisconsin

This isn’t the New Year’s Bowl Ole Miss expected to be playing in this year.  They had thoughts of Sugar.  Wisconsin wasn’t picked to play in a New Year’s Bowl at all, so this would be a grand reward for the Badgers, especially since it could be 70 degrees warmer in Tampa than in Madison on January 1.

 

Capital One: Ohio State vs. L S U

This is a rematch of the 2007-08 BCS Championship Game.  Ohio State would move up to this one if Penn State and Iowa both received BCS Bowl bids, and we think that will happen.

 

Gator: Notre Dame vs. Miami-FL

It’s been seven years since the Irish played in the Gator Bowl, and if they have eight or nine wins, they will be back in Jacksonville.  Having a former heated rival as an opponent makes this one a must-watch game.

 

Rose: Oregon vs. Iowa

Oregon has to beat USC in Eugene this weekend, or all bets are off in this one.  If USC wins, then the Trojans will play here and Oregon will be on the BCS bubble with Boise State.  Iowa can lose a game and still secure this bid.  We see them finishing 11-1.  Iowa’s last Rose Bowl trip was 19 years ago, while Oregon hasn’t been to Pasadena in 15 years.

 

Sugar: Florida vs. Pittsburgh

This one may look odd to you, but here’s how we decided on this pairing.  As of today, we believe Alabama would beat Florida in the SEC Championship Game and Pittsburgh would edge Cincinnati in their final regular season game.  The Sugar Bowl would get first choice to pick a replacement when Alabama earned the Top Seed.  The Sugar Bowl would then have to wait while the Fiesta and Orange Bowls selected ahead of them.  The Panthers would be what was left.

 

International: West Virginia vs. Temple

Five years ago, this would have been a conference game.  Temple is close to becoming bowl eligible.  The Owls last played in a bowl in 1979, when Mark Bright and Kevin Duckett ran all over California in the now defunct Garden State Bowl.

 

Cotton: Oklahoma State vs. Arkansas

The Cotton Bowl officials could jump over the Cowboys in favor of their arch-rival, but OSU should have at least one more win.  Arkansas is always a great draw for this bowl, and we see them earning this spot over Ole Miss.

 

PapaJohns.com: South Florida vs. Auburn

Auburn missed out on a bowl last year, and the Tigers have never played in this Birmingham bowl.  This bowl hasn’t drawn well, so this might be a great choice.

 

Liberty: Georgia vs. Southern Miss

It may be a slight stretch, but we believe Southern Miss will edge East Carolina and win the CUSA East title (forcing ECU to finish 6-6 and miss out on a bowl).  We then believe they will beat UTEP and earn this automatic bid.

 

Georgia hasn’t played in the Liberty Bowl since 1987, so this would be a decent location for the finish to a rebuilding year.

 

Alamo: Michigan vs. Nebraska

This was an excellent Alamo Bowl game four years ago, and we see it as a great repeat this year.  The Wolverines high-flying offense against the Cornhuskers’ Black Shirt defense would be a great draw.

 

Fiesta: Southern Cal vs. T C U

With Texas earning the number two ranking, the Fiesta Bowl would get the second at-large pick.  We see them taking the Trojans.  Then, after the Orange Bowl chose their at-large selection, this bowl would grab TCU over Pittsburgh.  It would be an interesting game and give the Horned Frogs a chance to show they belong among the nation’s elite for the first time since the Jim Swink days in the mid 1950’s.

 

Orange: Clemson vs. Penn State

Clemson has Coastal Carolina, Florida State, North Carolina State, Virginia, and South Carolina remaining on their schedule, and we see no impediment between the Tigers and the Atlantic Division title.  If they face Georgia Tech in a rematch, we believe they will win and win handily.  That would earn them an automatic trip to Miami.  Penn State may be the controversial choice if they are 10-2 and Boise State is 12-0 and Cincinnati 11-1, but money matters more to the bowl games.

 

G M A C: Central Michigan vs. Middle Tennessee

Central Michigan will win the MAC Championship, but since the Chippewas played in Detroit last year, we think they will be sent to Mobile this year.  We don’t see a ninth ACC team qualifying, and Middle Tennessee will earn this bowl over a half dozen 6-6 teams from bigger conferences.

 

National Championship Game: Alabama vs. Texas

These teams have faced off in several five memorable bowl games in the past.  Texas won four and the other ended in a tie.  Alabama was supposed to win all five times.  This will be an excellent game with twists and turns, and it could pit the top two vote-getters in the Heisman Trophy race as well.