This is the last week of regular season college games, so beginning next week, we will limit our selections until the bowls kick off. For this college regular season finale, we are going to rely on three money line parlays, since they have been successful for us this year. We will add one 13-point teaser to the mix.
As far as the NFL goes, we cleaned up on the 13-point teasers last week, and we will go with two more in addition to a 10-point teaser.
1. Money Line Parlay (4 teams @ -104)
Pittsburgh over Syracuse
Nevada over Idaho
B Y U over Hawaii
Arkansas State over Troy
It appears to us as though Syracuse ran out of steam at the end of October. As for Pitt, the Panthers either win this game or stay home for the holidays. We see Coach Graham getting his troops motivated to get the job done.
Nevada has limped home in November, but the Wolfpack get a relative patsy for senior day in Reno. Nevada’s pistol offense should fire into the end zone several times.
We are going against the chalk in Honolulu. Hawaii must win to become bowl eligible, while BYU has already accepted their bowl invitation. However, we believe the Cougars will dominate this game with superior talent and depth.
2. Money Line Parlay (3 teams @ -130)
Houston over Southern Mississippi
Oregon over U C L A
Wyoming over Colorado State
Houston benefits from hosting the CUSA Championship Game. All eyes will be on Case Keenum, as he contends for the Heisman Trophy. A Houston win more than likely sends the Cougars to the Sugar Bowl if LSU beats Georgia. While Cougar coach Kevin Sumlin is probably headed to greener pastures after this season, we do not expect it to play a major role in this game; Southern Miss coach Larry Fedora is in the same boat; he could become the next coach at Ole Miss or somewhere else, so the coaching rumors are a wash.
UCLA would be expected to play inspired ball and send Coach Rick Neuheisel out of Westwood with a Rose Bowl Game. However, there is too much superior Duck talent to overcome. We expect the Bruins to play their best game of the year, but they will come up short.
To those outside of the Rockies, you may not appreciate the rivalry between Colorado State and Wyoming. I’ve seen these two go at it in football and basketball, and in its own way, this rivalry is as fierce as the Red Sox and Yankees, Duke and North Carolina basketball, and the Iron Bowl. Wyoming is bowl-bound, while CSU could be coach-hunting. The Rams will be fired up to try to save Coach Steve Fairchild’s job, but like UCLA, they just don’t have the talent to pull it off.
3. Money Line Parlay (3 teams @ -114)
L S U over Georgia
North Texas over Middle Tennessee
Nevada over Idaho
The big talk all week in the South and elsewhere has been about Georgia upsetting LSU to earn the SEC three BCS Bowl bids. The Bulldogs would earn the automatic bid to the Sugar Bowl, while Alabama moves to first and LSU falls to second, forcing them to play in the National Championship Game. Well, we just don’t see it happening, even if the Bulldogs get to play this game in their de facto home of Atlanta. L S U is at least 14-25 points better than Georgia, and we would not be surprised if the Tigers decided to make a statement and run up the score.
North Texas was close to returning to respectability this season. The Mean Green were not that far away from winning six or seven games this year. As for Middle Tennessee, their season went downhill after they blew the opening game at Purdue, a game they should have won. They have failed to show up in their November games, and we expect them to mail this one in.
We are using Nevada in a second parlay only to bring the odds down under -130, since we only play money line parlays at the same or better odds than a 13-point, 4-team teaser. We consider it our safe game.
4. 13-point Teaser
Northern Illinois & Ohio U UNDER 84
Connecticut +22 ½ vs. Cincinnati
Oklahoma +16 vs. Oklahoma State
Boise State & New Mexico OVER 49
Ohio has played 12 games this season, and in none of them were the total points over 80. While Northern Illinois is probably the best offensive team the Bobcats will have faced, we believe both teams will be a little tight for the first 15 to 25 minutes of this game. We see this one ending in the 35-24 range, which is 25 points under 84.
Cincinnati no longer has BCS bowl hopes, with West Virginia eliminating the Bearcats last night. The Bearcats will more than likely replace CUSA champion Houston in the Liberty Bowl, and the results of this game will not matter. Connecticut is playing for bowl eligibility, and the Huskies will keep this game close and even have a chance to win outright.
The Sooners have the opportunity to do something very few OU teams have ever done—sneak up on their rivals from Stillwater. It has been a foregone conclusion this week in the national media that Oklahoma State still has a chance to earn a trip to the National Championship Game if they really do a number on the Sooners. Well, Oklahoma isn’t exactly chopped liver! We have a sneaky suspicion that they will shock the Cowboys and pull off the upset. Even if they don’t, we see OU staying within 14 points.
This final pick may look odd to you. This is our reasoning. Boise is actually favored by 48 ½ points, so the oddsmakers believe they will score 48 or 49 points minimum. Because Coach Chris Petersen will empty the bench and let a lot of senior reserves and other reserves play a good chunk of the second half, we expect the Lobos to score at least 10 to 14 points in this game. So, if Boise scores just 42 points and gives up 10, it suffices for us.
5. 10-point NFL Teaser
Tennessee & Buffalo OVER 33
Atlanta +7 vs. Houston
Denver +11 ½ vs. Minnesota
The Bills and Titans are two run-of-the-mill, average teams. Neither team’s offense will set the woods on fire, but neither team’s defense will shut down the other’s offense. We are looking at a typical, average NFL game with a 24-21 outcome, or 12 points more than 33.
Even with a healthy Matt Schaub or Matt Leinart, Houston and Atlanta would be a tossup game. Without either quarterback, we cannot see the Texans earning their ninth win of the season. They have a two-game lead in their division, while Atlanta is basically in a must-win situation the rest of the way. Look for a Falcons road win this week.
How can a hapless Vikings team defeat the invincible Superman Tim Tebow and do it without Adrian Peterson? How can they do it by 12 points? ‘nuf ced.
6. 13-point NFL Teaser
Tenneessee +14 ½ vs. Buffalo
Kansas City +20 vs. Chicago
Miami +10 vs. Oakland
Miami & Oakland OVER 30
Read above for why we are going with the Titans at +14 ½ against the Bills. We believe that these teams could play 10 times and none of the outcomes would be by that many points.
Chicago should beat Kansas City, even without Jay Cutler, but the Bears will play more conservatively and keep the score down. Add possible inclement weather, and we see the Bears winning 24-14.
If the Season had begun three weeks ago, Miami might have been the odds-on favorite to earn a Wildcard bid. However, their 0-7 start made that a moot point. Nevertheless, playing at home, the Dolphins are good enough to beat Oakland 75% of the time, and of the 25% losses, we see 95% of those would be by single digits. That’s good enough for us. We believe this game will see both teams top 17 points, with the winner probably topping 24, so we love the totals as well.
7. 13-point NFL Teaser
New York Jets +10 vs. Washington
New Orleans +4 vs. Detroit
San Francisco – ½ vs. St. Louis
New England -7 vs. Indianapolis
Washington is the type of team Rex Ryan loves to play against. His defense can bully the Redskins, while his offense keeps it close to the vest and grinds out enough yards to come up with 20-24 points. The Jets should win by a score similar to 23-10.
New Orleans and Detroit are teams headed in opposite directions. The Saints may be strong enough at the present time to upend Green Bay, while Detroit discovered that the Packers are their daddy. Look for the Saints to Stomp on the Lions this week.
We love teasing a double-digit favorite to ½ point, because it only requires them to win the game. A one-point win on a last-second field goal is adequate enough. We see no chance for the Rams to win on the road this week.
Normally, we would never tease a 20-point favorite to a touchdown. It goes against all logical teaser strategies. However, we are talking about the best team in the AFC against the worst team in all of North American professional football. Every CFL team could beat this year’s Colts, so the best team in the AFC should be expected to beat them by at least eight points. They could win 59-7!
The Pi-Rate Ratings 