Selections Against The Spread–September 17-21, 2015

Usually, when we look at a week and find that we like several different games, both straight up and via 10-point teasers, we are more than likely not finding fool’s gold.  Nevertheless, we are going to go all out and reveal the entire list.

What we concluded was that we liked nine different games straight up.  Afterwards, we looked at another seven teaser parlays.  If you are unfamiliar with what a “teaser” is, there are various point totals where you can move the line in your favor by that number of points.  The odds vary depending on the total points in your teaser.  We like 10-point teasers, because 10 points really affects the line, and when you play a 3-game parlay, the odds are about the same as playing sides.  It is called a “teaser” because it looks so easy to win these wagers, while in actuality, they are much harder to win than picking one team on a side or the totals of a game.  However, there are some mathematical wizards that have succeeded to the point where they cannot find a place to wager, because their teaser-picking accuracy is too high.  Note: We are mathematical lovers, not wizards.

 

Here are our Teaser Parlay Selections for September 17-21, 2015

10-point Teasers
	Home	Visitor	Teaser	Pick
1	Massachusetts	Temple	-0.5	Temple
	North Carolina	Illinois	19.5	Illinois
	New Mexico St.	UTEP	7.5	UTEP
2	Kansas St.	Louisiana Tech	-1	Kansas St.
	Purdue	Virginia Tech	4	Virginia Tech
	Syracuse	Central Michigan	-3.5	Syracuse
3	Penn St.	Rutgers	-0.5	Penn St.
	Miami (O)	Cincinnati	-8.5	Cincinnati
	North Texas	Rice	2.5	Rice
4	LSU	Auburn	17	Auburn
	Army	Wake Forest	4	Wake Forest
	Iowa	Pittsburgh	15.5	Pittsburgh
5	Minnesota	Detroit	13	Detroit
	Cleveland	Tennessee	10	Tennessee
	Kansas City	Denver	13	Denver
6	Buffalo	New England	9	New England
	Oakland	Baltimore	4	Baltimore
	Indianapolis	N. Y. Jets	-3	Indianapolis
7	Pittsburgh	San Francisco	-4	Pittsburgh
	Carolina	Houston	13	Houston
	Cincinnati	San Diego	-7	Cincinnati

 

Games Straight up for September 17-21, 2015

Home	Visitor	Line	Our Pick
Massachusetts	Temple	-10.5	Temple
North Carolina	Illinois	9.5	Illinois
Missouri	Connecticut	21.0	Missouri
Bowling Green	Memphis	-3.0	Memphis
Indiana	Western Kentucky	2.0	Western Kentucky
New Mexico St.	UTEP	-2.5	UTEP
Washington	Utah St.	5.5	Washington
Philadelphia	Dallas	5.0	Cowboys
Kansas City	Denver	3.0	Broncos

Selections Against The Spread–September 10-14, 2015

It started out great for the PiRate Ratings last week, as we hit on both of our early games to begin the season at 2-0.  Saturday was the reverse of fortune, as we tripped up on all three selections to finish 2-3 for the first week.  Once again, we are going with five games.  This week, we selected three college games and two NFL games.  It might be noted that we were more in agreement on these five games this week than we were on last week’s games.  Take that for what it’s worth.  In the past, when we had one really good prognosticator, often he was right on a game, while the rest of us were wrong.

Remember this: these are free selections against the spread, and you are getting what you paid for.  We highly advise using our selections strictly for entertainment purposes.  You are free to reply to this post with your own picks, as long as your time stamp pre-dates the day of the game you select.  This is strictly for fun.

Here are our selections for the week of September 10-14, 2015.

Home	Visitor	Line	Our Pick
Rutgers	Washington St.	2.5	Rutgers
Ohio U	Marshall	-3	Marshall
Arkansas St.	Missouri	-10.5	Missouri
San Francisco	Minnesota	-2.5	49ers
Arizona	New Orleans	1	Cardinals

College Football Preview For Week 1, September 3-7, 2015

Welcome back to the PiRate Ratings.  Many of you have read some of our preseason previews, but by looking at the increased volume to this site in the last 24 hours, we can tell that we have a lot of new readers today.

Yesterday, we posted the spreads for FBS teams only for our three ratings–PiRate, Mean, and Bias.  For those new to this site, a brief explanation follows.

Our ratings are unique in that we do not rely on scores alone to update our ratings.  Most of us here are sports metric statistics lunatics.  Our head man actually works in professional baseball as a “Moneyball” statistician/scout.

We use advanced statistics for each game to come up with the “theoretical score” of the game rather than the actual score, and then we update on our theoretical final score.  For example, if State beats Tech 42-21, this 21-point spread tells us very little.  What if State led 35-0 midway into the second quarter, and they pulled their starters after going five for five in touchdown drives?  What if Tech then scored twice in the final 7 minutes of a 42-7 game?  On the other hand, what if State led 28-21 with 7 minutes to go in the game, and Tech had driven 70 yards to the State 2 yard line, before fumbling at the goal with State returning the ball 100 yards for a TD, and then State added a second TD on an interception return with Tech driving again?

The 42-21 score is the only thing these two examples have in common.  In the first instance, State might have won 63-0 if they had continued to use their starters and top backups; State would win 100 out of 100 times against Tech.  In the second instance, there is a good chance that Tech might beat State 5 times out of 10.  We carefully peruse the play-by-play and statistics of every college football game among FBS teams. 

Our three ratings use the same type of data, but we have three different algorithms to come to the actual number.  The PiRate Rating is the same algorithm in use for the last 30+ years.  The Mean Rating is just that; it takes the mean of all our variables  with no bias.  Of course, the Bias Rating puts a bias on some data at the expense of other data.  Because it is similar to the PiRate Rating, these two will have a much higher correlation than they do to the Mean Rating.

Okay, now for something completely different.  Yesterday, we revealed our spreads for FBS vs. FBS Week One games.  Today, we show you our PiRate Spreads for FBS vs. FCS teams for Week One.  For reasons that involve how our ratings are calculated, we cannot supply Mean or Bias spreads with FCS teams, as it would take maybe 20 additional people to train and work with us.  The FBS vs. FCS PiRate Ratings are purely mechanical, so they are just an approximation of our actual PiRate Ratings.

We have repeated our FBS vs. FBS games so you will not have to look at yesterday’s entry.

This Week’s Games
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Thursday, September 3
North Carolina (N)	South Carolina	3.6	6.4	4.0
Central Florida	Florida Int’l	8.4	11.2	8.4
Central Michigan	Oklahoma St.	-30.3	-23.5	-29.0
Vanderbilt	Western Kentucky	0.4	-3.8	-2.0
Utah	Michigan	9.9	6.4	10.4
Minnesota	T C U	-17.5	-5.4	-19.1
Idaho	Ohio U	-16.5	-10.6	-15.9
Tulane	Duke	-4.0	-1.2	-3.9
Arizona	U T S A	49.3	31.3	48.6
Hawaii	Colorado	-16.8	-7.0	-15.9
Friday, September 4		PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia St.	Charlotte	8.2	3.4	7.6
Western Michigan	Michigan St.	-23.5	-15.5	-22.9
S M U	Baylor	-40.2	-29.9	-41.8
Illinois	Kent St.	21.3	14.4	18.5
Boise St.	Washington	16.3	12.3	16.1
Saturday, September 5		PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia	Louisiana-Monroe	45.0	39.6	44.4
Northwestern	Stanford	-12.7	-7.6	-14.6
Eastern Michigan	Old Dominion	-6.9	-2.8	-6.2
Nebraska	B Y U	8.2	5.8	6.2
Temple	Penn St.	-6.4	-4.9	-6.0
Tulsa	Florida Atlantic	7.5	10.5	8.0
Arkansas	U T E P	42.3	30.9	42.0
Auburn (N)	Louisville	11.8	7.5	9.9
U C L A	Virginia	27.2	22.4	26.4
Tennessee (N)	Bowling Green	32.2	20.4	29.8
N. Carolina St.	Troy	40.5	44.0	39.0
Oklahoma	Akron	44.6	31.5	41.5
Texas A&M (N)	Arizona St.	-0.8	2.6	-2.3
Kentucky	Louisiana-Lafayette	25.3	16.5	24.4
Notre Dame	Texas	13.1	10.1	12.6
West Virginia	Georgia Southern	33.9	25.3	32.9
Florida	N. Mexico St.	39.6	33.3	38.6
Northern Illinois	U N L V	18.2	18.6	18.8
Alabama (N)	Wisconsin	11.4	9.1	10.8
Florida St.	Texas St.	33.4	28.1	31.6
Southern Miss.	Mississippi St.	-25.4	-20.7	-27.1
U S C	Arkansas St.	36.8	31.0	40.9
Sunday, September 6		PiRate	Mean	Bias
Marshall	Purdue	-1.0	-1.5	1.7
Monday, September 7		PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia Tech	Ohio St.	-15.0	-6.5	-16.1
FBS vs. FCS	Week 1	PiRate
Utah St.	S. Utah	37.0
Wake Forest	Elon	24.0
Ball St.	V M I	28.0
Toledo	Stony Brook	28.0
Georgia Tech	Alcorn St.	44.0
Connecticut	Villanova	-7.0
Nevada	UC-Davis	25.0
San Jose St.	New Hampshire	1.0
Fresno St.	Abilene Christian	17.0
Army	Fordham	9.0
Syracuse	Rhode Island	25.0
Oregon St.	Weber St.	31.0
Ole Miss	UT-Martin	36.0
Navy	Colgate	29.0
Rutgers	Norfolk St.	39.0
Kansas	S. Dakota St.	-1.0
Iowa	Illinois St.	11.0
Maryland	Richmond	20.0
Clemson	Wofford	33.0
Pittsburgh	Youngstown St.	18.0
Boston College	Maine	22.0
Washington St.	Portland St.	22.0
Texas Tech	Sam Houston	15.0
Rice	Wagner	27.0
Air Force	Morgan St.	34.0
Buffalo	Albany	13.0
Miami (O)	Presbyterian	17.0
Appalachian St.	Howard	31.0
Colorado St.	Savannah St.	51.0
Wyoming	N. Dakota	13.0
Missouri	S E M O	40.0
Indiana	S. Illinois	17.0
California	Grambling	35.0
Miami (Fl)	Bethune-Cookman	29.0
East Carolina	Towson	28.0
S. Alabama	Gardner-Webb	17.0
N. Mexico	Mississippi Valley	32.0
Memphis	Missouri St.	26.0
S. Florida	Florida A&M	21.0
Cincinnati	Alabama A&M	39.0
Louisiana Tech	Southern	31.0
Middle Tennessee	Jackson St.	28.0
Kansas St.	S. Dakota	36.0
L S U	McNeese St.	34.0
San Diego St.	San Diego	28.0
Oregon	E. Washington	39.0
Iowa St.	N. Iowa	7.0
Houston	Tennessee Tech	29.0

Please see our sister site: http://www.piratings.webs.com for complete rankings of all 128 FBS and all 32 NFL teams.

Edit: Special Thanks to Reader Charles for catching mistakes that allowed us to correct on Thursday morning.

Selections Against The Spread

Your voices/emails have been heard.  At our sister site, http://www.piratings.webs.com, we have received exactly 137 requests from you to bring back our selections against the spread.  We are happy that some of you sports fans remember that great 2011-12 season in which our ratings finished at the top of the Prediction Tracker ratings against the spread for the NFL, while our college ratings have had multiple top 10 finishes.

Before reading further, please make sure you read the following paragraph in bold:  He or She that uses these ratings as their lone source before wagering their house on this data might as well just sell their house now and at least have funds to move elsewhere.  We NEVER, EVER use this data to wager on games.  As analytics’ specialists, we understand that the one way to make money wagering in football is to be the book.  Yes, there are the Billy Walters of the world, but if you were he, you wouldn’t be reading this blog.  So, since you are not, be advised that wagering any amount of your hard-earned money on football must be considered in the same light as paying for something, because that is exactly what you will be doing: paying somebody else.

Okay, now here is how we will make our selections this year.  First, we will isolate those games in which our Mean rating differs enough from the official line to make it a possibility.  Second, of those possibilities in step one,  the six of us will pick 5-10 games that we personally like against the spread.  If 4 of us have the same game and nobody has the opposite pick in that game, then we go with that as one of our selections.  Because we believe that it is best to pick an odd number of games to prevent a .500 record and a loss, we will eliminate a game if we have an even amount of games.

Here are our 5 selections for Week 1

Home	Visitor	Line	Our Pick
Arkansas	UTEP	33.0	UTEP
Central Michigan	Oklahoma St.	-24.5	Central Michigan
Florida	New Mexico St.	33.0	New Mexico St.
Georgia St.	Charlotte	8.0	Charlotte
Texas A&M (N)	Arizona St.	3.5	Arizona St.

PiRate Picks for December 12-16, 2013

Cutting Back

Drat the luck!  We go 4-1 to extend a secular winning streak, and we run out of college games to wrap into a parlay.  The only way to get a 13-point teaser out of Army-Navy is to take both sides and both totals.  Because the weather forecast calls for 1-3 inches of snow during the game, we cannot consider teasing the OVER.  The Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions compensated in the bad Philly weather last Sunday, but we are not as confident in the service academies having enough speed and cutting ability to remove doubt about scoring.  This could be an 8-6 game with one successful two-point conversion making the difference.

 

So, we must go only with NFL picks this week and probably next week as well, unless the December 21 bowls bring us an opportunity.

 

1. 13-point Teaser

San Diego +23 ½ vs. Denver

Atlanta +6 vs. Washington

Tampa Bay +18 vs. San Francisco

Arizona +10 vs. Tennessee

 

2. 13-point Teaser

New Orleans +7 ½ vs. St. Louis

NY Giants +20 vs. Seattle

Chicago +12 vs. Cleveland

Indianapolis +7 ½ vs. Houston

 

3. 13-point Teaser

Jacksonville +15 vs. Buffalo

Miami +13 vs. New England

Philadelphia +8 ½ vs. Minnesota

Carolina +2 vs. NY Jets

 

4. 13-point Teaser

Oakland +17 ½ vs. Kansas City

Green Bay +20 vs. Dallas

Cincinnati +10 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

Baltimore +19 vs. Detroit

 

5. Money Line Parlay @ -112

Atlanta over Washington

Indianapolis over Houston

PiRate Picks for December 5-9, 2013

Ouch!  We stunk it up last week, and we are not going to go heavy with a lot of picks this week trying to make up for the loss.  No, we are going with just five selections this week—all teasers.

 

The deep freeze, the college championships, and must-win games for some college and NFL teams along with good ole mathematics have led us to make these picks this week:

 

1. 10-point Teaser

Bowling Green +14 ½ vs. Northern Illinois

Texas +25 vs. Baylor

SMU +20 vs. Central Florida

 

2. 10-point Teaser

Oklahoma +20 vs. Oklahoma St.

Rice +16 vs. Marshall

Michigan St. +15 ½ vs. Ohio St.

 

3. 13-point Teaser

Cincinnati +16 vs. Louisville

Missouri +15 vs. Auburn

Stanford +16 vs. Arizona St.

Utah St. +16 vs. Fresno St.

 

4. 13-point Teaser

Jacksonville +10 vs. Houston

Kansas City +10 vs. Washington

New Orleans +10 vs. Carolina

Tampa Bay +10 ½ vs. Buffalo

 

5. 13-point Teaser

New England +1 ½ vs. Cleveland

Oakland +15 ½ vs. New York Jets

Philadelphia +10 ½ vs. Detroit

Denver +1 vs. Tennessee

PiRate Picks For Thanksgiving through December 2, 2013

Our Festive 11

Our five-week winning streak came to an end last week with a 3-4 record, but we are not afraid to pick 11 selections this week.  Remember, we do not speculate on games of chance of any kind.  Well, if you count investing in long-term value stocks with a margin of safety a game of chance, then maybe we do.  But, to make sure you know: we never wager on the games we publish or any games at all.  We are math nerds, and it is the mathematics that make this our passion.

 

In other news, if you follow all of our computer selections at Todd Beck’s incredible site, “The Prediction Tracker” (www.thepredictiontracker.com), our college ratings are sitting in 3^rd place out of dozens, just two games out of the lead.  Usually, our NFL ratings perform better (we won the 2011 vs. the spread title), but this year, it has been our college ratings that have remained consistently high.

 

Once again, we go with college money line parlays and NFL teasers.  We bring back the totals teasers this week.

 

1. Money Line Parlay @ -116

Rutgers over Connecticut

Colorado St. over Air Force

 

2. Money Line Parlay @-113

Fresno St. over San Jose St.

B Y U over Nevada

Utah St. over Wyoming

Central Michigan over Eastern Michigan

 

3. Money Line Parlay @-101

Toledo over Akron

Ohio St. over Michigan

Michigan St. over Minnesota

Kansas St. over Kansas

 

4. Money Line Parlay @ -120

Memphis over Temple

Virginia Tech over Virginia

Vanderbilt over Wake Forest

 

5. 10-point Teaser

Green Bay +16 vs. Detroit

Dallas + ½ vs. Oakland

Pittsburgh +13 vs. Baltimore

 

6. 10-point Teaser

Tampa Bay +18 ½ vs. Carolina

Miami +11 ½ vs. NY Jets

New England + 2 ½ vs. Houston

 

7. 13-point Teaser

Indianapolis +9 vs. Tennessee

Kansas City +17 ½ vs. Denver

Chicago +12 vs. Minnesota

Buffalo +9 ½ vs. Atlanta

 

8. 13-point Teaser

San Francisco +4 vs. St. Louis

San Diego +11 ½ vs. Cincinnati

NY Giants +12 vs. Washington

Seattle +7 ½ vs. New Orleans

 

9. 13-point Teaser

Green Bay & Detroit Under 63

Pittsburgh & Baltimore Under 53 ½

Denver & Kansas City Under 62

Chicago & Minnesota Under 62

 

10. 13-point Teaser

Dallas & Oakland Over 33 ½

Indianapolis & Tennessee Over 31 ½

Arizona & Philadelphia Over 35 ½

Miami & NY Jets Over 25 ½

 

11. 13-point Teaser

San Francisco & St. Louis Over 29

New England & Houston Over 34

NY Giants & Washington Over 33

Seattle & New Orleans Over 34

PiRate Picks: November 21-25, 2013

After a 4-3 week marked our fourth winning week in a row last week, we are sticking with what has been working.  This week, we present seven selections again.  4-3 will not make a fortune overnight, but it will make a nice profit every week.  Of course, we would not be sad with 7-0.

 

Last week, we received a comment on our other page asking to explain the Money Line and teasers we play.  In a brief nutshell:

 

Money Line: In this selection, you pick the winner only without a spread.  In other words, instead of State U being a 3-point pick over Tech, a posisble money line spread for this game would be State -140, Tech +135.  If you selected State to win, then you would have to put up $140 for every $100 you wanted to win.  If you picked Tech to win in an upset (getting no points), you would win $135 for every $100 you wagered.

 

When you pool Money Line picks together, this is a parlay.  There are parlay calculators that compute the new odds, where all the teams you pick must win.  For example, say you pick 3 favorites at -350, -360, and -370.  These are three decent favorites that all have about a 65% chance to win their games.  If you bundle these three into a parlay, our calculator says the new Money Line is +109, which means you would win $109 for every $100 wagered if all three of your teams win their games.

 

Teaser:  A teaser allows the bettor to move the pointspread by X points with “X” representing the number in the teaser name.  Thus, a 7-point teaser allows you to move the pointspread 7 points in the direction of your choice.  Obviously, you cannot just move the line by 7 points.  The odds change with every teaser, and in order to play a teaser with allowable odds, or odds close to the odds of a straight wager, you must combine two or more games together into a parlay, where all teams must cover under the teased spread.

 

We here at the PiRate Ratings have been successful in the past with 10-point and 13-point teasers.  For a 10-point teaser, you must select three games to make the odds acceptable.  For a 13-point teaser, you must select four games to make the odds acceptable.  Teaser bets are called that name, because many sucker players believe it is so easy, when it is anything but that.  Some smarter players know that mathematics are more important than the actual teaser spreads, with certain numbers giving the smart player a little extra advantage.  When 5% advantage can be the difference in turning a consistent loser into a consistent winner, then knowing the numbers to tease can make a world of difference.

 

Here are the PiRate Picks for this week.

 

1. Money Line Parlay @ -114

Duke over Wake Forest

Central Michigan over Massachusetts

Florida Atlantic over New Mexico St.

 

2. Money Line Parlay @ -112

Central Florida over Rutgers

Temple over Connecticut

North Texas over UT-San Antonio

 

3. Money Line Parlay @ +101

Wyoming over Hawaii

Illinois over Purdue

 

4. 10-point Teaser

New Orleans +1 ½ vs. Atlanta

Detroit +1 vs. Tampa Bay

Pittsburgh +11 ½ vs. Cleveland

 

5. 10-point Teaser

Oakland +11 vs. Tennessee

Indianapolis +12 ½ vs. Arizona

San Francisco +4 vs. Washington

 

6. 13-point Teaser

Jacksonville +23 vs. Houston

Minnesota +17 ½ vs. Green Bay

San Diego +18 vs. Kansas City

Carolina +14 ½ vs. Miami

 

7. 13-point Teaser

Chicago +14 vs. St. Louis

Baltimore +9 ½ vs. New York Jets

New York Giants +10 ½ vs. Dallas

New England +15 ½ vs. Denver

PiRate Picks for November 6-11, 2013

The saying goes that when picking football games against Las Vegas, the fools play the exotic wagers, while the smarts play the sides and totals.

We are the anti-fools here on the PiRate ship.  We tried our hand at going with mostly sides last week with nine selections, and we threw four exotic selections in as well.

The nine straight side selections went 2-7.  The four exotic selections finished 3-1.  We’ll let those with the sayings make their wagers, and we’ll go back to what has worked for us for the long term.

This week, we are picking no straight sides.  It’s all teasers and money line parlays.

1. 10-point Teaser

Oklahoma +26 vs. Baylor

Cincinnati +1 vs. SMU

Duke + ½ vs. North Carolina St.

 

2. 10-point Teaser

Missouri -4 vs. Kentucky

Florida Pk. vs. Vanderbilt

Colorado St. + ½ vs. Nevada

 

3. 10-point Teaser

USC -6 ½ vs. California

Central Florida – ½ vs. Houston

Alabama -2 ½ vs. L S U

 

4. 13-point Teaser

UL-Lafayette -1 vs. Troy

Iowa -2 vs. Purdue

Western Kentucky +7 ½ vs. Army

East Carolina -4 vs. Tulsa

 

5. 13-point Teaser

Minnesota +11 vs. Penn St.

North Carolina – ½ vs. Virginia

Wyoming +22 vs. Fresno St.

Ole Miss -4 vs. Arkansas

 

6. 13-point Teaser

Navy -4 vs. Hawaii

Notre Dame +8 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

Arizona +14 vs. U C L A

San Jose St. +6 ½ vs. San Diego St.

 

7. Money Line Parlay @ -116

Texas A&M over Mississippi St.

East Carolina over Tulsa

Navy over Hawaii

Ole Miss over Arkansas

North Carolina over Virginia

 

8. Money Line Parlay @ -102

Texas A&M over Mississippi St.

Missouri over Kentucky

Alabama over L S U

Florida over Vanderbilt

 

9. Money Line Parlay @ -112

Texas A&M over Mississippi St.

Colorado St. over Nevada

Auburn over Tennessee

 

10. 13-point Teaser

Washington +11 ½ vs. Minnesota

Tennessee +1 vs. Jacksonville

Philadelphia +14 vs. Green Bay

Indianapolis +3 ½ vs. St. Louis

 

11. 13-point Teaser

Seattle +7 ½ vs. Atlanta

Cincinnati +11 ½ vs. Baltimore

Detroit +13 vs. Chicago

Dallas +19 ½ vs. New Orleans

PiRate Picks For October 31 to November 4, 2013

Working On 3-Week Winning Streak

Things are looking a little brighter on the PiRate ship.

 

Our Thursday picks have been winners for three consecutive weeks, but we still warn you not to rely on these picks if you wager in Nevada at a sportsbook.  We wager the same amount that you pay to read this free weekly release.  We consider ourselves intelligent investors for doing such, and so should you.

 

Our official weekly picks at Todd Beck’s Prediction Tracker are faring wonderfully so far this season.  In fact, our record against the spread is currently ahead of the pace from 2011, when the PiRate Ratings finished number one in the nation in the NFL against the spread.  Picking all games against the spread, we stand at 60%, which is something we have not done in more years than we’d like to believe have past.

 

This week, we are breaking with our tradition a little bit.  Normally, we have a reputation for coming up with sweetheart teaser plays mixed with some money line parlays.  Over the past decade, our 4-team, 13-point teasers have enjoyed 59.4% wins (203-139), but we actually liked several of the straight side opportunities in college football this week.

 

So, we are going with nine straight college picks, two college money line parlays, and two NFL 13-point teasers.

 

Our headline game is an old trend that we relied on for years in a past generation, but it has not been in play for a couple of decades.  Pittsburgh played Navy last week, and they play Georgia Tech this week.  The Panthers have now had an extra week to prepare for Paul Johnson’s system, and it is not unorthodox to the Pitt defenders.  We look for a lower scoring game and could play the totals, but we will take a side instead.

 

1. Pittsburgh +10 ½ vs. Georgia Tech

 

2. North Texas -3 vs. Rice

 

3. Troy -3 vs. Louisiana-Monroe

 

4. Washington St. +11 vs. Arizona St.

 

5. Akron -1 vs. Kent St.

 

6. Army Pk. vs. Air Force

 

7. Miami +22 vs. Florida St.

 

8. Nebraska -6 vs. Northwestern

 

9. Iowa +9 ½ vs. Wisconsin

 

10. Money Line Parlay @ Even Money +100

Rutgers over Temple

Missouri over Tennessee

Notre Dame over Navy

South Carolina over Mississippi St.

 

11. Money Line Parlay @ -107

Clemson over Virginia

Kansas St. over Iowa St.

Arizona over California

Auburn over Arkansas

 

12. 13-point Teaser

Carolina +5 ½ vs. Atlanta

Dallas +3 vs. Minnesota

St. Louis +10 vs. Tennessee

Buffalo +16 vs. Kansas City

 

13. 13-point Teaser (our top technical teaser so far this year *)

Oakland +10 ½ vs. Philadelphia

Baltimore +10 ½ vs. Cleveland

Indianapolis +10 ½ vs. Houston

Seattle -3 vs. Tampa Bay

 

* Whenever a team is favored by 2 ½, 5 ½, or 9 ½ points, a 13-point teaser turns them into a 10 ½, 7 ½, and 3 ½ point underdog.  Since more NFL games end with 3, 7, and 10 point differences, these pointspreads buy us a little insurance with the tease.

 

Additionally a 13 ½ point favorite can be teased to a ½-point favorite, and that gives you a little insurance if you believe the team cannot lose.

 

The same thing works when teasing the underdog to 14 ½, 17 ½, and 21 ½ points from 1 ½, 4 ½, and 8 ½ points

 

Three of the four parts of the parlay in pick 13 fit this mold, while Seattle is another technical choice.  For this game, the Seahawks enjoy about 5 points homefield advantage, so we are stating that Tampa Bay must be at least 2 points better than Seattle to hurt this part of the parlay.

PiRate Picks For October 17-21, 2013

Our First 60% + Week of the Season

This has been a mediocre season for our PiRate Picks so far this year.  It took this long to finish with a week above 60%.  Our selections last week went 7-4 for 63.6% against the spread, bringing our year to date percentage to “not as bad as last week, but too awful to call mediocre.”

 

Maybe we have finally caught on to the trends this year, or maybe we were just lucky last week.  On the other hand, both the regular college and pro PiRate Ratings are faring quite well against the other major computer ratings publicly published.

 

In college, we are tied for first in the Prediction Tracker, and the other ratings in the first place tie with the Official Vegas Line.  So, we will continue to rely on college Money Lines in our selections here.

 

We are going with 13 separate selections, with the number 13 pick being a special one at better than even odds.  The last selection will return $118 in winnings for every $100 invested at the Las Vegas Sports Books—if it wins.

 

1. 13-point Teaser

Central Florida +25 ½ vs. Louisville

Duke +15 vs. Virginia

Army +15 ½ vs. Temple

Cincinnati -1 vs. Connecticut

 

2. 13-point Teaser

Texas A&M + ½ vs. Auburn

Iowa +30 vs. Ohio St.

Missouri +16 vs. Florida

Ole Miss +21 vs. L S U

 

3. 13-point Teaser

Houston +22 ½ vs. B Y U

U C L A +19 vs. Stanford

Rice -5 vs. New Mexico St.

Wisconsin – ½ vs. Illinois

 

4. 13-point Teaser

New England +9 vs. N.Y. Jets

Detroit +10 vs. Cincinnati

Miami +5 vs. Buffalo

Chicago +13 vs. Washington

 

5. 13-point Teaser

Dallas +16 vs. Philadelphia

St. Louis +19 vs. Carolina

Atlanta +6 vs. Tampa Bay

San Francisco +9 vs. Tennessee

 

6. 13-point Teaser

Green Bay +3 vs. Cleveland

Baltimore +14 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

Denver +6 ½ vs. Indianapolis

Minnesota +16 vs. N. Y. Giants

 

7. 13-point Teaser

Seattle & Arizona OVER 27 ½

N.Y. Jets & New England UNDER 56 ½

San Diego & Jacksonville UNDER 58

Houston & Kansas City UNDER 53

 

8. 13-point Teaser

Detroit & Cincinnati OVER 34

Chicago & Washington OVER 37

Dallas & Philadelphia OVER 42

St. Louis & Carolina OVER 29

 

9. 13-point Teaser

Atlanta & Tampa Bay OVER 30

Cleveland & Green Bay OVER 33

Denver & Indianapolis OVER 43

Minnesota & N.Y. Giants UNDER 60

 

10. Money Line Parlay @ -111

Ohio U over Eastern Michigan

Ball St. over Western Michigan

Cincinnati over Connecticut

Buffalo over Massachusetts

Rice over New Mexico St.

Boise St. over Nevada

 

11. Money Line Parlay @ -103

East Carolina over Southern Miss.

Wyoming over Colorado St.

Michigan over Indiana

 

12. Money Line Parlay @-106

Texas Tech over West Virginia

Georgia over Vanderbilt

 

13. Money Line Parlay @ +118

Atlanta over Tampa Bay

Green Bay over Cleveland

Kansas City over Houston