A PiRate Look At The NCAA Men’s Basketball Regional Finals–March 29, 2008

The Elitist of the Elite

A PiRate Preview of The Regional Final Games-March 29, 2008

Eight teams are left, and only Davidson, a team with a 25-game winning streak can be considered a surprise.  Xavier and Louisville may not have been expected to get this far, but both the Musketeers and Cardinals are no big surprises.

All four number one seeds have advanced to the Elite Eight.  Can all four make it to the Final Four for the first time since the current 64/65-team format has been in effect?  It’s possible, but it’s also possible that two of the four top-seeded teams could lose.

Of the eight Sweet 16 round games, seven of them were dull games.  Only the Xavier-West Virginia game was worth watching from start to finish.  Let’s hope the Regional Final games are a little more exciting.

In the statistics shown below, the records are up to date, but the stats do not include the Regional Semifinal games.  Those will be included in next week’s Final Four Previews.

Note:  In the statistics below, you will see a column marked other.  “B” means the player is an exceptional shot blocker.  “S” means the player is exceptional at stealing the ball.  “A” means the player is an excellent passer for assists.  “F” means the player is foul-prone.

West Regional-Phoenix

Saturday, March 29, 2008

6:40 PM EDT

#3 Xavier vs. #1 UCLA

Xavier Musketeers						Record: 30-6
Head Coach: Sean Miller
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
31	Jason Love	F/C	6-09	255	So.	6.1	5.4	57.4	0.0	60.4	B
5	Derrick Brown	F	6-08	225	So.	10.9	6.7	60.2	34.5	72.1
20	C.J. Anderson	F/G	6-06	220	Jr.	10.7	5.9	52.3	0.0	67.3
34	Stanley Burrell	G	6-03	210	Sr.	9.8	2.1	39.1	38.9	83.1	A
24	Drew Lavender	G	5-07	153	Sr.	11.0	2.6	43.6	40.4	86.8	A
	KEY RESERVES %
1	Josh Duncan	F	6-09	235	Sr.	12.1	4.7	50.4	41.8	85.4	F
11	B.J. Raymond	G/F	6-06	225	Jr.	10.1	3.1	44.9	41.1	86.1
25	Dante’ Jackson	G	6-05	205	Fr.	2.4	1.2	35.4	38.1	61.5	S/F

Statistical Analysis
XAV	Stat	Opp	Difference
47.8	FG%	40.6	7.2
39.1	3pt%	33.7	5.4
75.5	FT%	67.6	7.9
35.8	Reb	30.2	5.6
13.1	TO	13.0	-0.1
3.4	BK	3.6	-0.2
5.6	STL	6.6	-1.0
15.3	AST	13.1	2.2
	R+T  #		5.47
75.5	PPG	62.7	12.8
PiRate Score			8 *
Schedule Strength			.5720
	(*) Missed being 10 by very little
(#) For an explanation of R+T, PiRate Score, and Schedule
Strength, see “Bracketnomics 505” posted on 3/17/08
& how point values are assigned posted on 3/18/08
NCAA Tournament Results
Georgia		73-61
Purdue		85-78
West Virginia		79-75 ot

U C L A  Bruins						Record: 34-3
Head Coach: Ben Howland
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
42	Kevin Love	C	6-10	271	Fr.	17.3	10.6	55.7	36.5	76.5	B
23	Luc Rich. Mbah a Moute	F	6-08	232	Jr.	8.6	5.5	47.9	20.0	69.4
3	Josh Shipp	F/G	6-05	220	Jr.	12.4	3.2	44.0	32.5	79.2	S
2	Darren Collison	G	6-00	160	Jr.	15.1	2.6	49.4	51.6	87.6	S/A
0	Russell Westbrook	G	6-03	185	So.	12.3	3.8	46.8	31.9	70.5	S/A
	KEY RESERVES %
14	Mata-Real, Lorenzo	C	6-09	235	Sr.	3.3	3.7	50.0	0.0	45.2	B/F
12	Alfred Aboya	F/C	6-09	245	Jr.	3.1	2.3	50.0	33.3	52.8	F
41	Dragovic, Nikola	F	6-09	215	So.	2.6	1.4	33.9	23.8	12-12
13	James Keefe	G	6-08	225	So.	2.1	2.4	44.2	28.6	35.7	F

Statistical Analysis
UCLA	Stat	Opp	Difference
47.6	FG%	42.2	5.4
34.6	3pt%	32.5	2.1
73.0	FT%	67.0	6.0
36.3	Reb	27.9	8.4
12.4	TO	14.7	2.3
4.1	BK	2.6	1.5
7.4	STL	4.7	2.7
14.4	AST	11.3	3.1
	R+T  #		12.48
73.3	PPG	58.0	15.3
PiRate Score			15
Schedule Strength			.5751
NCAA Tournament Results
Mississippi Valley		70-29
Texas A&M		51-49
Western Kentucky		88-78

UCLA is looking to become the first team since Duke to make it to three consecutive Final Fours.  Of Course the Bruins went to the Final Four every year from 1967 through 1975, so three in a row is now big deal in Westwood.

Xavier is looking to become the first team from the Queen City to make the Final Four since Cincinnati did so in 1992 (The Bearcats also own a five consecutive streak from 1959-1963).

UCLA has a huge intangible in its favor.  The Bruins keep getting the benefit of several officials’ mistakes.  Going back to the end of the regular season when they won back-to-back games over Stanford and California, both ending in controversy, to the Pac-10 Tournament where they won a close game over Southern Cal, to the Texas A&M game in the second round of the Big Dance where the Bruins players were allowed to hold and push with no fouls being called, where the Aggies’ players were whistled for entering the same Zip Code, and it is a pattern that cannot be ignored.  I’m not saying this is a conspiracy.  I’m saying its probably human nature taking its course.  UCLA always got the benefit of the doubt during their great dynasty years.  I remember watching them foul Maryland all over the gym in December of 1973, while Maryland couldn’t get within an arm’s length without being whistled.  Somehow, the Terps had a chance to win at the end that night, but fell short by one basket.

UCLA probably doesn’t need any help to win this game, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see them benefit from a few calls or non-calls by the zebras.  While Xavier has the talent to keep this game close, I’m expecting the sons of Westwood to march to the Final Four with a victory.  The matchup between UCLA’s Kevin Love and Xavier’s Jason Love will be what decides this game, and we can make an educated guess which player will win.

Prediction: UCLA 73  Xavier 64

East Regional-Charlotte

Saturday, March 29, 2008

9:05 PM EDT

#3 Louisville vs. #1 North Carolina

 

Louisville Cardinals						Record: 27-8
Head Coach: Rick Pitino
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
4	David Padgett	F/C	6-11	245	Sr.	11.4	4.5	67.7	0.0	65.2	F
1	Terrence Williams	F	6-06	210	Jr.	11.0	7.3	40.5	34.3	56.7	S/A
5	Earl Clark	F/G	6-08	220	So.	10.9	8.0	46.2	23.1	65.5	B
34	Jerry Smith	G	6-01	200	So.	10.5	3.6	44.8	37.7	77.6	S
33	Andre McGee	G	5-10	180	Jr.	6.4	1.6	40.4	40.3	69.8	S/A
	KEY RESERVES %
32	Derrick Caracter	F/C	6-09	265	So.	8.5	4.5	55.7	1 of 1	63.1	B/F
10	Edgar Sosa	G	6-01	175	So.	7.6	1.7	38.5	37.4	63.6
3	Juan Palacios	F/C	6-08	250	Sr.	6.4	4.0	44.5	31.3	70.5	S

Statistical Analysis
U of L	Stat	Opp	Difference
46.0	FG%	38.4	7.6
35.2	3pt%	30.6	4.6
64.4	FT%	67.7	-3.3
37.3	Reb	34.5	2.8
13.3	TO	14.6	1.3
4.9	BK	2.7	2.2
8.1	STL	5.7	2.4
15.1	AST	12.2	2.9
	R+T  #		5.33
72.3	PPG	60.9	11.4
PiRate Score			9
Schedule Strength			.5852
NCAA Tournament Results
Boise State		79-61
Oklahoma		78-48
Tennessee		79-60

North Carolina Tar Heels						Record: 35-2
Head Coach: Roy Williams
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
50	Tyler Hansbrough	F	6-09	250	Jr.	22.8	10.2	54.1	0.0	81.2	S
21	Deon Thompson	F	6-08	240	So.	8.5	4.8	47.7	0.0	58.6	B/F
1	Marcus Ginyard	G-F	6-05	218	Jr.	7.4	4.5	44.6	42.9	66.3	S
22	Wayne Ellington	G	6-04	200	So.	16.8	4.3	47.9	42.1	81.5
5	Ty Lawson	G	5-11	195	So.	12.9	2.7	52.8	36.0	82.5	S/A
	KEY RESERVES %
14	Danny Green	G-F	6-05	210	Jr.	11.3	5.0	46.8	37.1	86.3	BSAF
32	Alex Stepheson	F	6-09	235	So.	4.4	4.8	53.2	0.0	43.2	B/F
11	Quentin Thomas	G	6-03	190	Sr.	3.4	1.5	57.3	25.0	78.1	A
4	Bobby Frasor	G	6-03	208	Jr.	3.2	1.8	34.2	30.0	50.0	S/A

Statistical Analysis
UNC	Stat	Opp	Difference
49.1	FG%	42.4	6.7
38.3	3pt%	33.0	5.3
75.4	FT%	66.9	8.5
44.0	Reb	32.4	11.6
14.3	TO	16.1	1.8
4.6	BK	4.9	-0.3
8.3	STL	7.9	0.4
17.3	AST	13.7	3.6
	R+T  #		15.19
89.9	PPG	72.9	17.0
PiRate Score			17
Schedule Strength			.5921
NCAA Tournament Results
Mount St. Mary’s		113-74
Arkansas		108-77
Washington State		68-47

Louisville Coach Rick Pitino has his Cardinals playing the best half-court defense of any team he has ever coached, including his 1996 national champs at Kentucky.  What UL did to Tennessee was amazing Thursday night.  However, for the Cards to have any chance of getting to the Final Four, they will have to play even better defensively tonight.

North Carolina is an unstoppable force right now.  Sure, Washington State held them to 67 points, but the Cougars didn’t do it with great defense.  They slowed the game down, making it a low possession game.  UNC still had a fantastic points per possession stat in the game.

I expect the Tar Heels to get their first taste of playing in an NCAA Tournament game that isn’t decided by the under 12 timeout in the first half.  The Heels may even get extended into the second half before they put this one away.

Prediction: North Carolina 78  Louisville 69

South Regional-Houston

Sunday, March 30, 2008

2:20 PM EDT

#2 Texas vs. #1 Memphis

Texas Longhorns						Record: 31-6
Head Coach: Rick Barnes
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
32	Connor Atchley	F/C	6-10	225	Jr.	19.2	2.9	44.3	38.0	77.9	B
5	Damion James	F/G	6-07	227	Jr.	13.2	10.7	46.4	44.6	56.3	B
24	Justin Mason	G	6-02	185	So.	7.1	4.3	42.2	34.2	66.2	A
3	A.J. Abrams	G	5-10	155	Jr.	16.6	2.8	42.8	38.1	80.9
14	D.J. Augustin	G	5-11	175	So.	19.2	2.9	44.3	38.0	77.9	A
	KEY RESERVES %
1	Gary Johnson	F	6-07	235	Fr.	5.7	4.0	41.6	0.0	55.6	F
34	Dexter Pittman	C	6-10	293	So.	2.7	2.3	54.8	0.0	60.5	B/F
15	Alexis Wangmene	F/C	6-08	240	Fr.	2.2	2.4	42.3	0.0	66.0	B/F

Statistical Analysis
UT	Stat	Opp	Difference
45.3	FG%	38.8	6.5
39.1	3pt%	32.6	6.5
68.2	FT%	67.9	0.3
38.1	Reb	35.1	3.0
9.6	TO	12.1	2.5
5.3	BK	2.8	2.5
6.0	STL	4.6	1.4
13.1	AST	12.4	0.7
	R+T  #		6.60
75.5	PPG	64.4	11.1
PiRate Score			9
Schedule Strength			.5950
NCAA Tournament Results
Austin Peay		74-54
Miami (Fla.)		75-72
Stanford		82-62

Memphis Tigers						Record: 36-1
Head Coach: John Calipari
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
3	Joey Dorsey	F/C	6-09	265	Jr.	7.0	9.7	64.7	0.0	37.9	B/F
2	Robert Dozier	F	6-09	215	Jr.	9.4	6.7	45.1	29.0	68.5	B
14	Chris Douglas-Roberts	G/F	6-07	200	Jr.	17.3	4.2	54.7	42.7	68.4
5	Antonio Anderson	G	6-06	210	Jr.	8.4	3.7	40.9	32.8	56.6	A
23	Derrick Rose	G	6-03	205	Fr.	14.1	4.3	46.9	35.1	68.4	A
	KEY RESERVES %
20	Doneal Mack	G	6-05	175	So.	7.7	1.8	39.7	37.1	66.7	F
0	Shawn Taggart	F/C	6-10	230	So.	5.8	4.2	51.0	37.5	63.9	B/F
1	Willie Kemp	G	6-02	175	So.	5.3	1.1	38.2	36.6	57.1	F
15	Andre Allen	G	5-10	205	Sr.	3.4	1.2	31.5	29.6	40.6	F

Statistical Analysis
Mem	Stat	Opp	Difference
46.6	FG%	38.5	8.1
35.3	3pt%	30.3	5.0
59.2	FT%	66.9	-7.7
40.9	Reb	34.2	6.7
12.0	TO	16.3	4.3
6.2	BK	3.3	2.9
8.5	STL	5.8	2.7
16.2	AST	10.7	5.5
	R+T  #		15.47
79.8	PPG	61.1	18.7
PiRate Score			19
Schedule Strength			.5749
NCAA Tournament Results
Texas-Arlington		87-63
Mississippi State		77-74
Michigan State		92-74

Memphis looked every bit as talented as the UNLV 1990-91 team Friday Night against Michigan State.  Sure, they surrendered some easy baskets, but they out-rebounded a Tom Izzo-coached team by nine boards!  That doesn’t happen often, if ever.  When you have a player like Derrick Rose, who can come off the bench and score 27 points and Robert Dozier who can almost record a double double while playing just half the game, and you see how complete this team really is.  Who says the Tigers cannot hit free throws?  26-35 is going to win a lot of close games.

Texas isn’t just horse fodder.  The Longhorns are talented enough to advance to the title game.  Just imagine how great this team would be if Kevin Durant had decided to play just one more season.  D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams won’t be intimidated by the Tigers’ defense, and the deadly duo can force Memphis to become lax in the paint.  Then, Connor Atchley and Damion James will take over inside. 

Give Texas some home court advantage for playing in Houston, but give Memphis that little extra to get over the hump and avoid falling in the Elite Eight round for the third consecutive year.  They won’t be denied a third straight time-not with this much talent.

Prediction: Memphis 78  Texas 75

Midwest Regional-Detroit

Sunday, March 30, 2008

5:05 PM EDT

#10 Davidson vs. #1 Kansas

Davidson Wildcats						Record: 29-6
Head Coach: Bob McKillop
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
15	Thomas Sander	F	6-08	220	Sr.	7.6	4.9	57.9	23.1	53.3	F
41	Andrew Lovedale	F	6-08	215	Jr.	6.7	5.4	53.6	0.0	66.7	F
14	Max Paulhus Gosselin	G/F	6-06	205	Jr.	3.6	3.5	36.7	12.5	65.5	S
30	Stephen Curry	G	6-03	185	So.	25.7	4.6	48.8	44.4	88.8	S/A
2	Jason Richards	G	6-02	185	Sr.	12.9	3.1	41.8	32.4	74.8	A
	KEY RESERVES %
5	Boris Meno	F	6-08	230	Sr.	7.3	5.6	49.5	5.6	66.7
22	Will Archambault	G/F	6-06	210	So.	5.2	1.9	39.1	27.8	69.0	F
24	Bryant Barr	G	6-04	195	So.	5.1	1.0	38.9	40.5	64.7
23	Stephen Rossiter	F	6-07	230	So.	3.1	3.4	60.3	0.0	67.6	S/F

Statistical Analysis
DC	Stat	Opp	Difference
47.1	FG%	42.3	4.8
36.2	3pt%	35.6	0.6
72.3	FT%	63.1	9.2
36.6	Reb	32.7	3.9
12.1	TO	16.9	4.8
3.3	BK	2.4	0.9
8.1	STL	5.6	2.5
17.1	AST	13.5	3.6
	R+T  #		13.23
78.6	PPG	63.5	15.1
PiRate Score			14
Schedule Strength			.5252
NCAA Tournament Results
Gonzaga		82-76
Georgetown		74-70
Wisconsin		73-56

Kansas Jayhawks						Record: 34-3
Head Coach: Bill Self
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
32	Darnell Jackson	F	6-08	250	Sr.	11.5	6.7	62.3	33.3	69.5
0	Darrell Arthur	F	6-09	225	So.	13.1	6.2	54.0	16.7	70.4	B/F
25	Brandon Rush	G/F	6-06	210	Jr.	13.0	5.0	42.5	43.9	77.6
15	Mario Chalmers	G	6-01	195	Jr.	12.6	3.1	52.5	47.1	73.3	S/A
3	Russell Robinson	G	6-01	205	Sr.	7.4	2.8	42.3	31.3	76.6	S/A
	KEY RESERVES %
4	Sherron Collins	G	5-11	205	So.	9.5	2.0	47.9	36.8	76.5	S/A
24	Sasha Kaun	C	6-11	250	Sr.	7.1	3.9	61.1	0.0	54.4	B/F
45	Cole Aldrich	C	6-11	240	Fr.	2.9	3.1	51.9	0.0	64.7	B/F
5	Rodrick Stewart	G	6-04	200	Sr.	2.9	2.3	49.3	31.3	60.7

Statistical Analysis
KU	Stat	Opp	Difference
50.8	FG%	38.0	12.8
40.1	3pt%	33.7	6.4
69.6	FT%	68.4	1.2
38.8	Reb	30.9	7.9
12.8	TO	15.8	3.0
6.0	BK	2.6	3.4
8.9	STL	6.2	2.7
18.4	AST	11.3	7.1
	R+T  #		14.31
81.4	PPG	61.4	20.0
PiRate Score			21
Schedule Strength			.5594
NCAA Tournament Results
Portland State		85-61
UNLV		75-56
Villanova		72-57

I have to admit that Stephen Curry and company did something I didn’t think they could do-they blew Wisconsin off the floor Friday night.  I underestimated just how fluid the Wildcats play.  This is actually their third trip to the Elite 8, with the other two coming in 1968 and 1969 (they lost both times to North Carolina by one possession).

Kansas is the team to beat.  The Jayhawks can dominate the game at both ends of the floor and in the stat book,  as they showed against ‘Nova Friday night.  I believe the Jayhawk defense will be able to combat the numerous perimeter screens set and keep Curry from putting up numbers reminiscent of Austin Carr when he played in the NCAA Tournament for Notre Dame.

I’m going with the Jayhawks, because I think they are as good as any National Champion in the last quarter century.  Davidson won’t lose because they are a small school from the Southern Conference.  In my opinion any other team in the field would also lose if they played Kansas in the Elite 8.

Prediction: Kansas 75  Davidson 60

From Sweet To Elite–A PiRate Look At the NCAA Sweet 16 Games March 26, 2008

 

From Sweet To Elite

A PiRate Preview of Sweet 16 Games-March 26, 2008

The pretenders are gone, except for maybe one or two, and now the NCAA Tournament begins to get serious.  More than four of the remaining teams in the field have the entire pedigree and most of them have three or more of the required statistics in my Final Four criteria, so picking winners is going to be a crapshoot.

This week, I am going to add a statistic to the category today.  When you get to the Sweet 16, obviously all the teams have won at least two games in a row.  If they also won their conference tournament, then they have now won five or even six games in a row.  Some of these teams probably entered their conference tournament on a winning streak.  That’s what we are looking for in this stat.  No points are assigned, but if a team has a 10 or more-game winning streak, and they are from one of the power conferences, use that to decide in toss-up situations (after strength of schedule has first been applied).

This could mean that the team is playing better ball today than they played earlier in the season.  Thus, their cumulative statistics are lagging a little bit.

Without further adieu, here are the PiRate Sweet 16 game previews.

Note:  In the statistics below, you will see a column marked other.  “B” means the player is an exceptional shot blocker.  “S” means the player is exceptional at stealing the ball.  “A” means the player is an excellent passer for assists.  “F” means the player is foul-prone.

East Regional-Charlotte

Thursday, March 27, 2008

7:27 PM EDT

#4 Washington State vs. #1 North Carolina

Washington State Cougars						Record: 26-8
Head Coach: Tony Bennett
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
11	Aron Baynes	C	6-10	270	Jr.	10.3	5.9	59.4	0.0	66.4	F
34	Robbie Cowgill	F	6-10	211	Sr.	7.4	5.0	55.6	0.0	68.2
25	Kyle Weaver	F	6-06	201	Sr.	12.2	5.2	47.4	38.1	74.4	A/S
2	Derrick Low	G	6-02	196	Sr.	14.1	1.8	43.5	39.1	78.4	S
10	Taylor Rochestie	G	6-01	186	Jr.	10.7	3.2	47.6	43.8	80.4	A
	KEY RESERVES %
32	Daven Harmeling	F	6-07	216	Jr.	5.7	2.1	43.2	38.5	75.0
52	Caleb Forrest	C/F	6-08	228	Jr.	3.5	2.1	51.6	20.0	77.8	F
4	Nikola Koprivica	G/F	6-06	211	So.	2.6	1.0	39.2	13.8	67.6	S

Statistical Analysis
WSU	Stat	Opp	Difference
48.0	FG%	41.3	6.7
37.5	3pt%	33.0	4.5
73.1	FT%	72.2	0.9
29.8	Reb	29.1	0.7
10.2	TO	13.2	3.0
2.9	BK	2.5	0.4
6.2	STL	4.3	1.9
13.9	AST	10.2	3.7
	R+T  #		5.16
67.0	PPG	56.1	10.9
PiRate Score			10
Schedule Strength			.5613
(#) For an explanation of R+T, PiRate Score, and Schedule
Strength, see “Bracketnomics 505” posted on 3/17/08
NCAA Tournament Results
Winthrop		71-40
Notre Dame		61-41

North Carolina Tar Heels											Record: 34-2
Head Coach: Roy Williams
No.	Player				Pos	Height		Weight		Cl.	Pts.		Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
50	Tyler Hansbrough				F	6-09		250		Jr.	22.8		10.2	54.1	0.0	81.2	S
21	Deon Thompson				F	6-08		240		So.	8.5		4.8	47.7	0.0	58.6	B/F
1	Marcus Ginyard				G-F	6-05		218		Jr.	7.4		4.5	44.6	42.9	66.3	S
22	Wayne Ellington				G	6-04		200		So.	16.8		4.3	47.9	42.1	81.5
5	Ty Lawson				G	5-11		195		So.	12.9		2.7	52.8	36.0	82.5	S/A
	KEY RESERVES %
14	Danny Green				G-F	6-05		210		Jr.	11.3		5.0	46.8	37.1	86.3	BSAF
32	Alex Stepheson				F	6-09		235		So.	4.4		4.8	53.2	0.0	43.2	B/F
11	Quentin Thomas				G	6-03		190		Sr.	3.4		1.5	57.3	25.0	78.1	A
4	Bobby Frasor				G	6-03		208		Jr.	3.2		1.8	34.2	30.0	50.0	S/A
Statistical Analysis
UNC		Stat	Opp	Difference
49.1		FG%	42.4	6.7
38.3		3pt%	33.0	5.3
75.4		FT%	66.9	8.5
44.0		Reb	32.4	11.6
14.3		TO	16.1	1.8
4.6		BK	4.9	-0.3
8.3		STL	7.9	0.4
17.3		AST	13.7	3.6
		R+T  #		15.19
89.9		PPG	72.9	17.0
PiRate Score				17
Schedule Strength				.5921
(#) For an explanation of R+T, PiRate Score, and Schedule
Strength, see “Bracketnomics 505” posted on 3/17/08
NCAA Tournament Results
Mount St. Mary’s			113-74
Arkansas			108-77

Washington State’s style of play is the one style that North Carolina does not like to play.  The Tar Heels are going to try to make this a transition game by trying to play like they are the Denver Nuggets and the Cougars are the Seattle Supersonics.  This ploy will either work, and Carolina will force WSU out of its comfort zone, or the Tar Heels will force their shots and allow State to tighten the screws.

I’m thinking that with a fine home team advantage (UNC just won the ACC Tournament in Charlotte), and a 13-game winning streak in which the team has returned to full strength, the Tar Heels are going to win this one with ease.  It won’t be a repeat of their first two games in the tournament, but UNC will win by 10-15 points.  Washington State will slow the game down and force Carolina to work hard in the half-court, but Carolina will score enough points in transition and get enough second-chance points to eventually force the Cougars away from their comfort zone.

Prediction: North Carolina 76  Washington State 60

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Approximately 10:00 PM EDT

#3 Louisville vs. #2 Tennessee

Louisville Cardinals						Record: 26-8
Head Coach: Rick Pitino
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
4	David Padgett	F/C	6-11	245	Sr.	11.4	4.5	67.7	0.0	65.2	F
1	Terrence Williams	F	6-06	210	Jr.	11.0	7.3	40.5	34.3	56.7	S/A
5	Earl Clark	F/G	6-08	220	So.	10.9	8.0	46.2	23.1	65.5	B
34	Jerry Smith	G	6-01	200	So.	10.5	3.6	44.8	37.7	77.6	S
33	Andre McGee	G	5-10	180	Jr.	6.4	1.6	40.4	40.3	69.8	S/A
	KEY RESERVES %
32	Derrick Caracter	F/C	6-09	265	So.	8.5	4.5	55.7	1 of 1	63.1	B/F
10	Edgar Sosa	G	6-01	175	So.	7.6	1.7	38.5	37.4	63.6
3	Juan Palacios	F/C	6-08	250	Sr.	6.4	4.0	44.5	31.3	70.5	S

Statistical Analysis
U of L	Stat	Opp	Difference
46.0	FG%	38.4	7.6
35.2	3pt%	30.6	4.6
64.4	FT%	67.7	-3.3
37.3	Reb	34.5	2.8
13.3	TO	14.6	1.3
4.9	BK	2.7	2.2
8.1	STL	5.7	2.4
15.1	AST	12.2	2.9
	R+T  #		5.33
72.3	PPG	60.9	11.4
PiRate Score			9
Schedule Strength			.5852
(#) For an explanation of R+T, PiRate Score, and Schedule
Strength, see “Bracketnomics 505” posted on 3/17/08
NCAA Tournament Results
Boise State		79-61
Oklahoma		78-48

Tennessee Volunteers						Record: 31-4
Head Coach: Bruce Pearl
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
4	Wayne Chism	F/C	6-09	242	So.	9.9	5.8	46.6	31.5	54.5	B/F
1	Tyler Smith	F	6-07	215	So.	13.7	6.8	54.1	38.9	71.1	S/A
2	Jajuan Smith	G/F	6-02	195	Sr.	14.5	3.7	46.2	38.2	76.5	S/A
5	Chris Lofton	G	6-02	200	Sr.	15.5	3.2	40.6	39.2	83.2	S
30	J.P. Prince	G/F	6-07	205	So.	8.3	3.3	50.0	16.7	55.7	S/A/F
	KEY RESERVES %
12	Ramar Smith	G	6-02	200	So.	7.5	2.4	44.6	22.7	60.3	S/A/F
32	Duke Crews	F/C	6-07	233	So.	5.4	4.1	50.5	0.0	66.7	F
15	Jordan Howell	G	6-03	190	Sr.	4.3	1.5	32.6	31.9	65.7	A/F
33	Brian Williams	C	6-10	267	Fr.	2.9	3.5	60.3	1 of 2	50.0	F
34	Ryan Childress	F	6-09	235	Jr.	2.4	2.5	36.7	18.8	61.1	S/A/F

Statistical Analysis
UT	Stat	Opp	Difference
46.1	FG%	42.7	3.4
35.9	3pt%	31.2	4.7
65.8	FT%	66.9	-1.1
38.0	Reb	37.0	1.0
13.1	TO	18.2	5.1
3.4	BK	4.0	-0.6
9.2	STL	5.8	3.4
17.9	AST	13.4	4.5
	R+T  #		12.26
82.5	PPG	69.7	12.8
PiRate Score			13
Schedule Strength			.6063
(#) For an explanation of R+T, PiRate Score, and Schedule
Strength, see “Bracketnomics 505” posted on 3/17/08
NCAA Tournament Results
American		72-57
Butler		76-71 ot

This should be the most exciting game in the Sweet 16.  Both teams press full-court, although they do it differently.  Tennessee’s press tries to steal the ball or force turnovers against the inbounds pass and then backs off into more of a token press once opponents successfully pass the ball inbounds.  The Vols will then surprise their opponents by going to full pressure in an attempt to start a scoring run.  Louisville’s press is the infamous match-up, multiple press that Rick Pitino has used successfully at Boston U, Providence, and Kentucky.

Turnovers and rebounding will play a greater than normal part in deciding this game.  When two good pressing teams face off, usually the eventual winner will get several additional scoring attempts due to turnovers and offensive rebounds off fast break situations.  In the end, I believe Tennessee’s press will fare a little better than Louisville’s.  The Vols have more depth and will have a better chance of wearing down the Cardinals than vice versa.  Unfortunately for the winner, it looks like this game will take a great deal more energy to win than the North Carolina-Washington State game.

Prediction: Tennessee 75  Louisville 72

West Regional-Phoenix

Thursday, March 27, 2008

7:10 PM EDT

#12 Western Kentucky vs. #1 UCLA

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers						Record: 29-6
Head Coach: Darrin Horn
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
40	Jeremy Evans	F/C	6-09	190	So.	6.0	5.2	62.4	42.1	65.4	B
35	D.J. Magley	F	6-09	260	Fr.	4.8	3.3	51.4	0.0	61.3	F
32	Courtney Lee	G/F	6-05	200	Sr.	20.5	4.8	49.0	40.4	82.5	S
5	Ty Rogers	G	6-03	195	Sr.	6.5	2.2	45.4	37.4	63.2
3	Tyrone Brazleton	G	6-00	180	Sr.	13.9	2.7	44.6	41.7	67.1	A/F
	KEY RESERVES %
4	A.J. Slaughter	G	6-03	180	So.	7.6	2.1	43.9	44.0	76.5	S/F
20	Orlando Mendez-Valdez	G	6-01	180	Jr.	5.8	1.6	42.5	39.4	78.3	A/F
21	Boris Siakim	F	6-07	225	Sr.	4.8	3.8	55.1	14.3	69.0	F
30	Steffphon Pettigrew	G/F	6-05	220	Fr.	3.9	2.9	40.5	25.0	70.8	F

Statistical Analysis
WKU	Stat	Opp	Difference
47.6	FG%	42.1	5.5
39.4	3pt%	33.1	6.3
70.0	FT%	70.3	-0.3
35.0	Reb	31.9	3.1
14.4	TO	17.8	3.4
3.7	BK	2.6	1.1
7.9	STL	6.3	1.6
12.7	AST	11.5	1.2
	R+T  #		9.55
77.3	PPG	66.1	11.2
PiRate Score			13
Schedule Strength			.5123
(#) For an explanation of R+T, PiRate Score, and Schedule
Strength, see “Bracketnomics 505” posted on 3/17/08
NCAA Tournament Results
Drake		101-99 ot
San Diego		72-63

U C L A  Bruins						Record: 33-3
Head Coach: Ben Howland
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
42	Kevin Love	C	6-10	271	Fr.	17.3	10.6	55.7	36.5	76.5	B
23	Luc Rich. Mbah a Moute	F	6-08	232	Jr.	8.6	5.5	47.9	20.0	69.4
3	Josh Shipp	F/G	6-05	220	Jr.	12.4	3.2	44.0	32.5	79.2	S
2	Darren Collison	G	6-00	160	Jr.	15.1	2.6	49.4	51.6	87.6	S/A
0	Russell Westbrook	G	6-03	185	So.	12.3	3.8	46.8	31.9	70.5	S/A
	KEY RESERVES %
14	Mata-Real, Lorenzo	C	6-09	235	Sr.	3.3	3.7	50.0	0.0	45.2	B/F
12	Alfred Aboya	F/C	6-09	245	Jr.	3.1	2.3	50.0	33.3	52.8	F
41	Dragovic, Nikola	F	6-09	215	So.	2.6	1.4	33.9	23.8	12-12
13	James Keefe	G	6-08	225	So.	2.1	2.4	44.2	28.6	35.7	F

Statistical Analysis
UCLA	Stat	Opp	Difference
47.6	FG%	42.2	5.4
34.6	3pt%	32.5	2.1
73.0	FT%	67.0	6.0
36.3	Reb	27.9	8.4
12.4	TO	14.7	2.3
4.1	BK	2.6	1.5
7.4	STL	4.7	2.7
14.4	AST	11.3	3.1
	R+T  #		12.48
73.3	PPG	58.0	15.3
PiRate Score			15
Schedule Strength			.5751
(#) For an explanation of R+T, PiRate Score, and Schedule
Strength, see “Bracketnomics 505” posted on 3/17/08
NCAA Tournament Results
Mississippi Valley		70-29
Texas A&M		51-49

On the surface, this looks like a mismatch that will end with the top-seed blowing the Cinderella 12-seed out of the gym.  While the Bruins could win by 20 points, the Hilltoppers are the type of team that can make UCLA get into a transition game.  This game will be played much like the North Carolina-Washington State; one team will try to get the other team to play a different style of ball than they are accustomed to playing.

Where I think the game will turn is inside the paint.  UCLA has too many horses for Western to stop.  If the Bruins can defend the WKU perimeter, they will eventually control the game, because UCLA will pound the ball inside and dominate on the glass.  It comes down to what time in the game that will happen.  I think WKU can keep it close for a time; I’m just not sure what time it will be.  Thus, I am expecting the Bruins to survive but not by 20 points.

Prediction: UCLA 65  Western Kentucky 58

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Approximately 9:45 PM EDT

#7 West Virginia vs. #3 Xavier

West Virginia Mountaineers						Record: 26-10
Head Coach: Bob Huggins
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
43	Jamie Smalligan	C	7-00	265	Sr.	2.2	1.9	29.5	18.3	71.4	A/F
11	Joe Alexander	F	6-08	230	Jr.	16.8	6.3	46.3	27.5	82.1	B/A
1	Da’Sean Butler	F	6-07	225	So.	12.9	6.1	49.6	37.1	63.7	F
22	Alex Ruoff	G	6-06	215	Jr.	13.8	3.4	47.7	41.4	83.1	S/A
14	Darris Nichols	G	6-03	200	Sr.	10.8	3.3	44.6	39.2	70.9	A
	KEY RESERVES %
3	Joe Mazzulla	G	6-02	210	So.	5.7	2.9	46.7	47.4	64.8	A/F
35	Wellington Smith	F	6-07	215	So.	5.1	3.8	42.4	25.0	54.2	B/F
41	John Flowers	F	6-07	195	Fr.	4.6	2.5	43.3	28.6	38.0	B/F

Statistical Analysis
WVU	Stat	Opp	Difference
45.4	FG%	41.9	3.5
35.9	3pt%	35.1	0.8
69.0	FT%	65.8	3.2
35.9	Reb	33.6	2.3
11.3	TO	15.8	4.5
5.1	BK	2.5	2.6
7.0	STL	5.6	1.4
15.4	AST	11.3	4.1
	R+T  #		9.86
74.8	PPG	63.1	11.7
PiRate Score			11 *
Schedule Strength			.5616
	(*) Barely missed being 13
(#) For an explanation of R+T, PiRate Score, and Schedule
Strength, see “Bracketnomics 505” posted on 3/17/08
NCAA Tournament Results
Arizona		75-65
Duke		73-67

Xavier Musketeers						Record: 29-6
Head Coach: Sean Miller
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
31	Jason Love	F/C	6-09	255	So.	6.1	5.4	57.4	0.0	60.4	B
5	Derrick Brown	F	6-08	225	So.	10.9	6.7	60.2	34.5	72.1
20	C.J. Anderson	F/G	6-06	220	Jr.	10.7	5.9	52.3	0.0	67.3
34	Stanley Burrell	G	6-03	210	Sr.	9.8	2.1	39.1	38.9	83.1	A
24	Drew Lavender	G	5-07	153	Sr.	11.0	2.6	43.6	40.4	86.8	A
	KEY RESERVES %
1	Josh Duncan	F	6-09	235	Sr.	12.1	4.7	50.4	41.8	85.4	F
11	B.J. Raymond	G/F	6-06	225	Jr.	10.1	3.1	44.9	41.1	86.1
25	Dante’ Jackson	G	6-05	205	Fr.	2.4	1.2	35.4	38.1	61.5	S/F

Statistical Analysis
XAV	Stat	Opp	Difference
47.8	FG%	40.6	7.2
39.1	3pt%	33.7	5.4
75.5	FT%	67.6	7.9
35.8	Reb	30.2	5.6
13.1	TO	13.0	-0.1
3.4	BK	3.6	-0.2
5.6	STL	6.6	-1.0
15.3	AST	13.1	2.2
	R+T  #		5.47
75.5	PPG	62.7	12.8
PiRate Score			8 *
Schedule Strength			.5720
	(*) Barely missed being 10
(#) For an explanation of R+T, PiRate Score, and Schedule
Strength, see “Bracketnomics 505” posted on 3/17/08
NCAA Tournament Results
Georgia		73-61
Purdue		85-78

The PiRate Criteria reveals West Virginia to be a slight favorite in this game.  I’m on the fence personally.  I like both of these teams’ hustle and the ability to put team ahead of the individual.  While the Tennessee-Louisville game looks like the most exciting, this game looks like the most balanced.  These two teams could play 10 times and split the games five to five.

So, where do I see the game being decided?  If I had to pinpoint one area, it would be the versatility of West Virginia to change its lineup from short and quick to tall and muscular.  Bob Huggins will find the right combination in the second half, and the Mountaineers will advance to the Elite Eight for the second time in four years.

Prediction: West Virginia 74  Xavier 69

South Regional-Houston

Friday, March 28, 2008

7:27 PM

#3 Stanford vs. #2 Texas

Stanford Cardinal						Record: 28-7
Head Coach: Trent Johnson
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
42	Robin Lopez	C	7-00	260	So.	10.3	5.7	54.2	1 of 1	65.2	B
11	Brook Lopez	F	7-00	255	So.	19.0	8.1	46.9	0.0	78.2	B
44	Fred Washington	F	6-05	215	Sr.	4.5	4.1	48.2	20.0	53.2	A/F
4	Anthony Goods	G	6-03	205	Jr.	10.3	2.1	37.2	35.2	74.6
1	Mitch Johnson	G	6-01	190	Jr.	6.7	4.3	43.3	39.7	66.2	A
	KEY RESERVES %
15	Lawrence Hill	F	6-08	215	Jr.	8.7	4.9	41.3	36.5	74.6
31	Taj Finger	F	6-08	200	Sr.	5.9	4.3	55.3	22.2	74.2	F
22	Kenny Brown	G	6-01	200	Jr.	4.3	1.3	43.8	38.3	70.8
2	Landry Fields	G/F	6-07	200	So.	3.8	2.0	35.5	34.5	60.7	A/F

 

Statistical Analysis
Stan	Stat	Opp	Difference
45.2	FG%	39.3	5.9
36.6	3pt%	33.4	3.2
69.5	FT%	66.6	2.9
39.1	Reb	31.1	8.0
12.3	TO	11.7	-0.6
5.2	BK	2.4	2.8
4.4	STL	5.8	-1.4
14.6	AST	9.9	4.7
	R+T  #		7.37
71.2	PPG	61.0	10.2
PiRate Score			8 *
Schedule Strength			.5547
		(*) Barely missed being 12
(#) For an explanation of R+T, PiRate Score, and Schedule
Strength, see “Bracketnomics 505” posted on 3/17/08
NCAA Tournament Results
Cornell		77-53
Marquette		82-81 ot

 

Texas Longhorns						Record: 30-6
Head Coach: Rick Barnes
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
32	Connor Atchley	F/C	6-10	225	Jr.	19.2	2.9	44.3	38.0	77.9	B
5	Damion James	F/G	6-07	227	Jr.	13.2	10.7	46.4	44.6	56.3	B
24	Justin Mason	G	6-02	185	So.	7.1	4.3	42.2	34.2	66.2	A
3	A.J. Abrams	G	5-10	155	Jr.	16.6	2.8	42.8	38.1	80.9
14	D.J. Augustin	G	5-11	175	So.	19.2	2.9	44.3	38.0	77.9	A
	KEY RESERVES %
1	Gary Johnson	F	6-07	235	Fr.	5.7	4.0	41.6	0.0	55.6	F
34	Dexter Pittman	C	6-10	293	So.	2.7	2.3	54.8	0.0	60.5	B/F
15	Alexis Wangmene	F/C	6-08	240	Fr.	2.2	2.4	42.3	0.0	66.0	B/F

 

Statistical Analysis
UT	Stat	Opp	Difference
45.3	FG%	38.8	6.5
39.1	3pt%	32.6	6.5
68.2	FT%	67.9	0.3
38.1	Reb	35.1	3.0
9.6	TO	12.1	2.5
5.3	BK	2.8	2.5
6.0	STL	4.6	1.4
13.1	AST	12.4	0.7
	R+T  #		6.60
75.5	PPG	64.4	11.1
PiRate Score			9
Schedule Strength			.5950
(#) For an explanation of R+T, PiRate Score, and Schedule
Strength, see “Bracketnomics 505” posted on 3/17/08
NCAA Tournament Results
Austin Peay		74-54
Miami (Fla.)		75-72

 

Stanford poses a tough match-up with two mobile seven footers in their starting lineup.  Texas isn’t one of those teams that will have problems.  The Longhorns’ defense should force the Cardinal to shoot too many outside shots, something they don’t want to do.  I expect this game to be lower scoring than average, as Stanford will try to pound it inside the paint and will find it difficult to get the ball there consistently.

When Texas has the ball, I expect the ‘Horns to put the ball in D.J. Augustin’s hands and let him break down the Stanford defense.  It won’t work all night, but it will work enough times to move Texas on to the Regional finals.

Prediction: Texas 69  Stanford 61

Friday, March 28, 2008

Approximately 10:00 PM EDT

#5 Michigan State vs. #1 Memphis

Michigan State Spartans						Record: 27-8
Head Coach: Tom Izzo
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
14	Goran Suton	C	6-10	245	Jr.	8.7	8.2	53.6	9.1	77.6	F
2	Raymar Morgan	F	6-07	225	So.	14.2	6.1	56.2	30.3	67.8
1	Kalin Lucas	G	6-00	180	Fr.	10.2	1.6	43.1	37.0	76.4	A
11	Drew Neitzel	G	6-00	185	Sr.	14.1	2.5	40.9	40.1	86.0	A
5	Travis Walton	G	6-02	190	Jr.	3.6	2.0	38.7	0.0	73.2	A
	KEY RESERVES %
3	Chris Allen	G	6-03	195	Fr.	5.9	1.1	37.1	37.0	80.0
15	Durrell Summers	G	6-04	195	Fr.	4.9	2.4	50.8	50.0	75.5
41	Marquise Gray	F	6-08	235	Jr.	4.5	3.8	60.7	0.0	65.0	F
34	Drew Naymick	C	6-10	250	Sr.	4.3	4.2	66.3	0.0	77.4	B/F

 

Statistical Analysis
MSU	Stat	Opp	Difference
48.0	FG%	39.8	8.2
37.4	3pt%	31.1	6.3
73.9	FT%	66.6	7.3
37.2	Reb	29.9	7.3
13.7	TO	12.3	-1.4
4.3	BK	4.0	0.3
5.9	STL	5.9	0.0
17.5	AST	12.3	5.2
	R+T  #		5.32
71.1	PPG	61.7	9.4
PiRate Score			8
Schedule Strength			.5636
(#) For an explanation of R+T, PiRate Score, and Schedule
Strength, see “Bracketnomics 505” posted on 3/17/08
NCAA Tournament Results
Temple		72-61
Pittsburgh		65-54

 

Memphis Tigers						Record: 35-1
Head Coach: John Calipari
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
3	Joey Dorsey	F/C	6-09	265	Jr.	7.0	9.7	64.7	0.0	37.9	B/F
2	Robert Dozier	F	6-09	215	Jr.	9.4	6.7	45.1	29.0	68.5	B
14	Chris Douglas-Roberts	G/F	6-07	200	Jr.	17.3	4.2	54.7	42.7	68.4
5	Antonio Anderson	G	6-06	210	Jr.	8.4	3.7	40.9	32.8	56.6	A
23	Derrick Rose	G	6-03	205	Fr.	14.1	4.3	46.9	35.1	68.4	A
	KEY RESERVES %
20	Doneal Mack	G	6-05	175	So.	7.7	1.8	39.7	37.1	66.7	F
0	Shawn Taggart	F/C	6-10	230	So.	5.8	4.2	51.0	37.5	63.9	B/F
1	Willie Kemp	G	6-02	175	So.	5.3	1.1	38.2	36.6	57.1	F
15	Andre Allen	G	5-10	205	Sr.	3.4	1.2	31.5	29.6	40.6	F

 

Statistical Analysis
Mem	Stat	Opp	Difference
46.6	FG%	38.5	8.1
35.3	3pt%	30.3	5.0
59.2	FT%	66.9	-7.7
40.9	Reb	34.2	6.7
12.0	TO	16.3	4.3
6.2	BK	3.3	2.9
8.5	STL	5.8	2.7
16.2	AST	10.7	5.5
	R+T  #		15.47
79.8	PPG	61.1	18.7
PiRate Score			19
Schedule Strength			.5749
(#) For an explanation of R+T, PiRate Score, and Schedule
Strength, see “Bracketnomics 505” posted on 3/17/08

 

The PiRate Criteria show this game as a blowout, but I think Michigan State has a chance at the upset.  If the Spartans play with the same intensity as they displayed against Pittsburgh, they will keep this game within striking distance.

Memphis didn’t play poorly against Mississippi State, but the Tigers couldn’t put the Bulldogs away in the second round. 

The game will come down to how many extra shots Michigan State gets due to their rebounding acumen versus how many extra fast break opportunities Memphis gets due to their ability to force turnovers and have a numbers advantage.

Prediction: Memphis 74  Michigan State 67

Midwest Regional-Detroit

Friday, March 28, 2008

7:10 PM EDT

#10 Davidson vs. #3 Wisconsin

Davidson Wildcats						Record: 28-6
Head Coach: Bob McKillop
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
15	Thomas Sander	F	6-08	220	Sr.	7.6	4.9	57.9	23.1	53.3	F
41	Andrew Lovedale	F	6-08	215	Jr.	6.7	5.4	53.6	0.0	66.7	F
14	Max Paulhus Gosselin	G/F	6-06	205	Jr.	3.6	3.5	36.7	12.5	65.5	S
30	Stephen Curry	G	6-03	185	So.	25.7	4.6	48.8	44.4	88.8	S/A
2	Jason Richards	G	6-02	185	Sr.	12.9	3.1	41.8	32.4	74.8	A
	KEY RESERVES %
5	Boris Meno	F	6-08	230	Sr.	7.3	5.6	49.5	5.6	66.7
22	Will Archambault	G/F	6-06	210	So.	5.2	1.9	39.1	27.8	69.0	F
24	Bryant Barr	G	6-04	195	So.	5.1	1.0	38.9	40.5	64.7
23	Stephen Rossiter	F	6-07	230	So.	3.1	3.4	60.3	0.0	67.6	S/F

Statistical Analysis
DC	Stat	Opp	Difference
47.1	FG%	42.3	4.8
36.2	3pt%	35.6	0.6
72.3	FT%	63.1	9.2
36.6	Reb	32.7	3.9
12.1	TO	16.9	4.8
3.3	BK	2.4	0.9
8.1	STL	5.6	2.5
17.1	AST	13.5	3.6
	R+T  #		13.23
78.6	PPG	63.5	15.1
PiRate Score			14
Schedule Strength			.5252
(#) For an explanation of R+T, PiRate Score, and Schedule
Strength, see “Bracketnomics 505” posted on 3/17/08
NCAA Tournament Results
Gonzaga		82-76
Georgetown		74-70

Wisconsin Badgers						Record: 31-4
Head Coach: Bo Ryan
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
32	Brian Butch	F/C	6-11	245	Sr.	12.4	6.7	45.7	30.7	65.8
1	Marcus Landry	F	6-07	230	Jr.	10.9	5.4	46.9	35.8	76.0
45	Joe Krabbenhoft	G/F	6-07	220	Jr.	7.5	6.6	47.6	18.5	75.5	A
3	Trevon Hughes	G	6-01	190	So.	11.6	3.1	39.8	31.9	68.8	S/A
22	Michael Flowers	G	6-02	185	Sr.	9.5	3.8	45.4	41.8	70.0	S/A/F
	KEY RESERVES %
12	Jason Bohannon	G	6-02	195	So.	8.1	2.4	43.2	38.9	87.3
34	Greg Stiemsma	C	6-11	260	Sr.	3.4	3.0	55.6	0.0	84.2	B/A/F
30	Jon Leuer	F	6-10	215	Fr.	3.0	1.3	47.2	46.2	48.3

Statistical Analysis
UW	Stat	Opp	Difference
45.1	FG%	38.0	7.1
35.6	3pt%	30.5	5.1
70.7	FT%	68.2	2.5
36.0	Reb	30.3	5.7
12.2	TO	13.8	1.6
3.3	BK	2.9	0.4
6.3	STL	6.2	0.1
12.7	AST	9.8	2.9
	R+T  #		8.12
67.6	PPG	53.9	13.7
PiRate Score			13
Schedule Strength			.5518
(#) For an explanation of R+T, PiRate Score, and Schedule
Strength, see “Bracketnomics 505” posted on 3/17/08
NCAA Tournament Results
Cal State Fullerton		71-56
Kansas State		72-55

The criteria for these two teams are close.  Davidson’s long winning streak does not count as a tiebreaker, as the Wildcats are not from a power conference.  Wisconsin has won 12 in a row, so the winning streak does apply to the Badgers.  Wisconsin’s perimeter defense is strong with Flowers, Hughes,  and Krabbenhoft able to shut down any opponents’ outside game.  I expect the Badgers to hold Stephen Curry under 20 points.

When Wisconsin has the ball, they will set up the outside shot by going inside to Butch and Stiemsma first.  Unlike Georgetown, when Davidson tries to pack their defense inside, Wisconsin will exploit it with the three-bombs of Flowers and Bohannon. 

Prediction: Wisconsin 66  Davidson 55

Friday, March 28, 2008

Approximately 9:45 PM EDT

#12 Villanova vs. #1 Kansas

Villanova Wildcats						Record: 22-12
Head Coach: Jay Wright
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
33	Dante Cunningham	F	6-08	230	Jr.	10.4	6.4	54.9	0.0	69.1	S/F
0	Antonio Pena	F	6-08	230	Fr.	7.0	4.3	48.0	33.3	69.1
22	Dwayne Anderson	G/F	6-06	215	Jr.	6.4	4.8	50.7	33.3	64.3	S
10	Corey Fisher	G	6-01	200	Fr.	9.2	1.8	35.7	34.2	74.0	A
1	Scottie Reynolds	G	6-02	190	So.	16.0	3.1	41.6	38.1	77.8	S/A
	KEY RESERVES %
20	Shane Clark	F	6-07	205	Jr.	7.0	4.3	43.5	29.1	84.1	F
24	Corey Stokes	G	6-05	220	Fr.	6.4	2.5	36.5	29.8	90.0	F
3	Malcolm Grant	G	6-00	185	Fr.	5.6	0.8	39.0	46.6	84.1	A/F
5	Casiem Drummond	C	6-10	275	So.	4.9	4.5	52.4	0.0	44.4	B/F

 

Statistical Analysis
VU	Stat	Opp	Difference
43.3	FG%	43.4	-0.1
34.8	3pt%	36.3	-1.5
72.8	FT%	68.1	4.7
36.1	Reb	33.3	2.8
14.3	TO	16.4	2.1
2.8	BK	4.6	-1.8
8.0	STL	6.6	1.4
13.6	AST	12.9	0.7
	R+T  #		6.83
73.2	PPG	69.4	3.8
PiRate Score			-1
Schedule Strength			.5586
(#) For an explanation of R+T, PiRate Score, and Schedule
Strength, see “Bracketnomics 505” posted on 3/17/08
NCAA Tournament Results
Clemson		75-69
Siena		84-72

 

Kansas Jayhawks						Record: 33-3
Head Coach: Bill Self
No.	Player	Pos	Height	Weight	Cl.	Pts.	Reb.	FG%	3pt%	FT%	Other *
	STARTERS
32	Darnell Jackson	F	6-08	250	Sr.	11.5	6.7	62.3	33.3	69.5
0	Darrell Arthur	F	6-09	225	So.	13.1	6.2	54.0	16.7	70.4	B/F
25	Brandon Rush	G/F	6-06	210	Jr.	13.0	5.0	42.5	43.9	77.6
15	Mario Chalmers	G	6-01	195	Jr.	12.6	3.1	52.5	47.1	73.3	S/A
3	Russell Robinson	G	6-01	205	Sr.	7.4	2.8	42.3	31.3	76.6	S/A
	KEY RESERVES %
4	Sherron Collins	G	5-11	205	So.	9.5	2.0	47.9	36.8	76.5	S/A
24	Sasha Kaun	C	6-11	250	Sr.	7.1	3.9	61.1	0.0	54.4	B/F
45	Cole Aldrich	C	6-11	240	Fr.	2.9	3.1	51.9	0.0	64.7	B/F
5	Rodrick Stewart	G	6-04	200	Sr.	2.9	2.3	49.3	31.3	60.7

 

Statistical Analysis
KU	Stat	Opp	Difference
50.8	FG%	38.0	12.8
40.1	3pt%	33.7	6.4
69.6	FT%	68.4	1.2
38.8	Reb	30.9	7.9
12.8	TO	15.8	3.0
6.0	BK	2.6	3.4
8.9	STL	6.2	2.7
18.4	AST	11.3	7.1
	R+T  #		14.31
81.4	PPG	61.4	20.0
PiRate Score			21
Schedule Strength			.5594
(#) For an explanation of R+T, PiRate Score, and Schedule
Strength, see “Bracketnomics 505” posted on 3/17/08
NCAA Tournament Results
Portland State		85-61
UNLV		75-56

The team with the best criteria plays the team with the worst criteria.  I  have the criteria from the 1985 Championship Game, the one where the all-time biggest Cinderella, Villanova, upset the Goliath Georgetown.  Villanova’s PiRate criteria was -2, while Georgetown’s was 19, for a difference of 21.  The difference in this game is 22, so it would be an even bigger upset in the bits and bytes of the PiRate Computer.

Kansas has the perfect PiRate Criteria fingerprint for a National Championship.  The Jayhawks have a perfect score.  Very few teams, other than ones coached by John Wooden, have been able to outscore their opponents by 20 points per game, shoot almost 13% better from the field, out-rebound their opponents by eight per game, force three more turnovers per game than they commit with nine of those coming on steals, and have seven legitimate offensive threats all in the same season.  When it happens, you have a team for the ages.  Kansas looks like that sort of team, and until someone can knock them off, I sticking with the boys from Lawrence to go all the way.

Prediction: Kansas 80  Villanova 64