PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 9–November 7-8, 2010

AFC West Showdown in Oakland

 

How long has it been since a Raiders-Chiefs game meant so much?  Not since 1993 has this rivalry game been so important.  

 

Those of us that remember football from 45 years ago can remember some wild games between these two teams.  In 1968, Chiefs’ head coach Hank Stram faced a dilemma when the 5-1 Chiefs hosted the 5-1 Raiders.  His top receivers were injured and would miss the game.  Kansas City had three excellent running backs.  Stram installed a double tight end full-house T formation and ran the ball almost exclusively.  Len Dawson threw just three passes that day, but the running back trio of Mike Garrett, Robert Holmes, and Wendell Hayes rushed for close to 300 yards in a shocking win over the Raiders.

 

The two teams finished the season tied at 12-2, and they faced off in Oakland in a playoff for the AFL West title.  Oakland got revenge with a 41-6 blowout.

 

The following year, Oakland beat the Chiefs in a preseason game, and then beat them twice during the regular season.  In 1969, in the AFL’s final season, the league expanded its playoffs from two to four teams.  Playing for a fourth time, the Chiefs won in the most important AFL game of the season.  It put them in the Super Bowl.

 

The following year, the first as NFL members, the Chiefs appeared set to win when a huge fight broke out as the Chiefs were running out the clock.  Penalties forced KC to punt, and Oakland got the ball back one final time and forced a tie.  The Raiders finished 8-4-2 to 7-5-2 for the Chiefs.  Had Kansas City won that game, the Chiefs would have won the AFC West in a tiebreaker.

 

The rivalry took on added intensity when the Kansas City Athletics baseball team moved to Oakland for the 1968 season.  Sports fans in the city of Kansas City had an axe to grind with the fans from the city of Oakland.  It did not hurt that the Chiefs and Raiders were the two best teams in the old American Football League.  In the 1969 expansion of Major League Baseball, Kansas City was awarded a new franchise, and it was placed in the same division as Oakland.

 

Back to the present.  The Raiders have awakened and won two games in a row by a combined score of 92-17.  Kansas City holds a 1 ½ game lead at 5-2.  This game means something again.

 

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
Bitmap NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	PPG	Opp
New York Giants	104.0	104.2	106.0	5-2-0	25.0	21.9
Philadelphia	102.9	102.4	103.6	4-3-0	24.6	22.4
Washington	98.2	99.8	99.7	4-4-0	19.4	21.3
Dallas	96.4	97.2	92.9	1-6-0	22.0	26.7
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	105.1	104.8	105.1	5-3-0	22.0	17.0
Minnesota	102.1	101.0	97.8	2-5-0	18.4	20.6
Chicago	98.1	100.0	100.4	4-3-0	18.0	16.3
Detroit	97.7	98.7	100.0	2-5-0	26.1	23.6
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Atlanta	103.8	103.8	105.3	5-2-0	24.1	19.0
New Orleans	102.8	101.9	103.5	5-3-0	20.9	18.5
Carolina	96.2	92.2	90.6	1-6-0	12.1	21.4
Tampa Bay	93.1	96.3	99.8	5-2-0	19.4	23.3
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco	97.1	95.4	96.8	2-6-0	17.1	22.3
Seattle	96.4	96.8	98.2	4-3-0	17.6	20.0
St. Louis	95.7	96.7	98.6	4-4-0	17.5	17.6
Arizona	92.8	94.7	92.3	3-4-0	19.0	28.3
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	108.1	106.3	106.0	5-2-0	22.7	15.7
New England	107.2	106.4	107.1	6-1-0	29.3	22.0
Miami	103.4	101.3	102.3	4-3-0	19.0	21.3
Buffalo	95.0	92.5	94.6	0-7-0	18.7	30.1
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	105.4	103.8	104.4	5-2-0	21.3	18.4
Pittsburgh	104.1	105.9	104.5	5-2-0	21.0	14.6
Cleveland	98.4	97.4	96.3	2-5-0	16.9	20.3
Cincinnati	98.2	97.7	94.5	2-5-0	20.9	23.3
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	106.6	105.9	106.2	5-2-0	23.3	17.9
Tennessee	103.2	106.1	103.2	5-3-0	28.0	18.8
Houston	98.8	99.4	99.8	4-3-0	21.9	23.9
Jacksonville	93.8	94.8	96.1	4-4-0	20.6	28.3
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego	101.8	100.9	100.1	3-5-0	26.3	21.8
Oakland	100.5	100.0	100.3	4-4-0	26.5	21.0
Kansas City	100.0	101.6	101.7	5-2-0	23.3	17.4
Denver	93.5	94.3	92.3	2-6-0	19.3	27.9

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 9: November 7-8, 2010
Vegas Line as of 4:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Chicago	BUFFALO	1.1	5.5	3.8	3	40 1/2
San Diego	HOUSTON	1.0	-0.5	-1.7	2 1/2	50
New Orleans	CAROLINA	4.6	7.7	10.9	7	42
MINNESOTA	Arizona	12.3	9.3	8.5	9	40 1/2
ATLANTA	Tampa Bay	13.7	10.5	8.5	9	44 1/2
New York Jets	DETROIT	6.4	3.6	2.0	4	41 1/2
BALTIMORE	Miami	4.0	4.5	4.1	5 1/2	40 1/2
New England	CLEVELAND	6.8	7.0	8.8	4 1/2	44
New York Giants	SEATTLE	3.6	3.4	3.8	5 1/2	41 1/2
OAKLAND	Kansas City	2.5	0.4	0.6	2 1/2	40 1/2
Indianapolis	PHILADELPHIA	1.7	1.5	0.6	-3	46 1/2
GREEN BAY	Dallas	11.7	10.6	15.2	7 1/2	45 1/2
Pittsburgh	CINCINNATI	1.9	4.2	6.0	4 1/2	41 1/2

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	6.7	0.00	121.5
Peyton Manning	IND	6.7	0.67	115.6
Vince Young	TEN	6.5	1.64	106.0
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.4	1.58	105.9
Josh Freeman	TB	5.5	1.34	103.0
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	7.1	2.44	102.3
Phillip Rivers	SD	6.7	2.29	101.4
Tom Brady	NE	5.7	1.78	100.3
Matt Cassel	KC	5.4	1.68	99.5
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	2.00	96.6
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.3	1.98	96.2
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	4.9	1.86	95.1
Chad Henne	MIA	5.3	2.46	92.0
Joe Flacco	BAL	5.3	2.54	91.3
Matt Schaub	HOU	5.3	2.55	91.2
Carson Palmer	CIN	5	2.48	90.2
Kevin Kolb	PHI	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	DAL	5.7	3.29	87.0
Donovan McNabb	WAS	4.9	2.89	86.0
Jason Campbell	OAK	4.9	2.90	85.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	4.7	2.84	85.3
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.3	3.35	84.2
Drew Brees	NO	5.1	3.32	83.3
Sam Bradford	STL	3.9	2.74	81.7
Kerry Collins	TEN	4.6	3.45	79.4
Shaun Hill	DET	4.4	3.37	79.0
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	3.7	2.97	78.6
Jay Cutler	CHI	4.8	3.87	76.8
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	4.3	3.92	73.6
Eli Manning	NYG	4.8	4.60	70.4
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	2.6	3.30	69.5
David Garrard	JAX	4.2	4.70	66.2
Derek Anderson	ARI	3.5	4.52	63.9
Brett Favre	MIN	3.8	5.21	59.4
Charlie Batch	PIT	3.7	6.12	50.8
Trent Edwards	JAX	1.4	5.26	45.5
Matt Moore	CAR	2.1	7.30	31.5
Max Hall	ARI	0.5	6.67	28.1
PiRate Passer Rating Formula
[((7* Air Yards Per Attempt [eliminates YAC]) – (11* Int.%)) +105] * 0.8   AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 8–October 31- November 1, 2010

Time For A Horse Or Two To Move Out Of The Pack 

This is the time of year where the eventual Super Bowl participants begin to kick it up a notch.  It doesn’t happen every season; for instance, we knew that New Orleans and Indianapolis were the class of the NFL last year from the second or third week.  However, in most seasons, somewhere around games five thru seven, a couple of teams begin to separate from the pack.  You don’t always realize it until the last quarter of the season.  A 3-3 team will go 5-1 to move to 8-4.  That team may still trail two or three teams in their conference.  While everybody else looks at the 10-2 teams, it is really the hot 8-4 team that is primed to win in the playoffs.

Which AFC teams appear to be peaking at this time?  The Jets, Steelers, Patriots, and Ravens are not peaking.  The Jets could turn out to be a great team that is going to “wire the field,” but we see two teams that look to be decent fits for this pattern.  Both happen to be in the same division.  The Indianapolis Colts may not be close to last year’s team in talent, but they are starting to play like a playoff winner.  The Tennessee Titans better fit this pattern.  They look like a team that could run off five or six wins in a row, after winning three in a row in impressive fashion.

Stranger things have happened in the past, so we must look at the Browns and Raiders at this point.  Both pulled off impressive victories on the road last week.  We are not saying they will run off five more in succession, but we must take a hard look at their games this week. 

In the NFC, the New York Giants clearly exhibit the pattern we are looking for.  The Seattle Seahawks are the other team to monitor for this possible scenario.  We think there is still going to be one other team that will break out from the pack in the next two weeks and begin to look like a playoff winner.  Philadelphia could be that team.

Beans On Bowl

This is the week for the annual game across the pond.  When San Francisco and Denver face off in London this weekend, it could set back global football relations for years.  Could we see a coaching dismissal made some point over the Atlantic Ocean on the return flight?  Even the blokes in Jolly Ole’ England know when somebody is trying to pull a fast one over them on the football field.

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	PPG	Opp
New York Giants	104.0	103.7	105.7	5-2-0	25.0	21.9
Philadelphia	102.9	102.0	102.1	4-3-0	24.6	22.4
Dallas	101.9	100.2	98.0	1-5-0	22.8	25.3
Washington	99.4	100.5	100.5	4-3-0	18.6	19.0
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	102.8	102.9	103.5	4-3-0	23.9	19.4
Minnesota	102.7	101.2	100.1	2-4-0	18.5	19.3
Chicago	98.1	100.0	99.0	4-3-0	18.0	16.3
Detroit	96.5	98.4	95.3	1-5-0	24.3	23.3
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Atlanta	103.8	103.3	104.4	5-2-0	24.1	19.0
New Orleans	101.4	99.9	101.4	4-3-0	21.0	19.7
Carolina	97.6	92.4	93.1	1-5-0	12.5	21.7
Tampa Bay	92.9	95.4	97.6	4-2-0	16.3	21.3
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Seattle	98.4	98.5	100.5	4-2-0	20.0	17.8
San Francisco	96.6	94.7	92.8	1-6-0	16.1	23.1
St. Louis	94.3	96.5	96.3	3-4-0	17.1	18.7
Arizona	93.0	95.6	95.3	3-3-0	16.3	26.7
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	110.4	107.4	109.5	5-1-0	26.5	16.8
New England	106.6	105.7	106.6	5-1-0	29.5	22.7
Miami	101.3	100.2	102.0	3-3-0	18.5	22.5
Buffalo	92.7	91.9	90.9	0-6-0	20.2	33.0
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Pittsburgh	105.5	107.6	107.4	5-1-0	22.8	13.7
Baltimore	105.4	104.0	104.8	5-2-0	21.3	18.4
Cincinnati	100.3	98.8	99.2	2-4-0	22.0	23.7
Cleveland	98.4	97.9	96.2	2-5-0	16.9	20.3
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Tennessee	105.3	107.9	106.8	5-2-0	28.4	16.7
Indianapolis	105.1	105.0	105.6	4-2-0	27.2	20.8
Houston	100.3	99.6	101.1	4-2-0	25.5	27.8
Jacksonville	90.8	92.6	91.8	3-4-0	18.6	29.9
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Kansas City	101.3	101.5	102.3	4-2-0	25.0	18.7
San Diego	99.7	100.4	98.2	2-5-0	25.3	21.3
Oakland	97.0	98.2	97.8	3-4-0	25.6	23.6
Denver	94.0	96.0	94.3	2-5-0	19.7	28.4

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 8: October 31-November 1, 2010
Vegas Line as of 3:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
San Francisco	Denver  (London)	2.6	-1.3	-1.5	Pk	42
DALLAS	Jacksonville	13.1	9.6	8.2	6 1/2	42 1/2
DETROIT	Washington	0.1	0.9	-2.2	2 1/2	44
NEW YORK JETS	Green Bay	9.6	6.5	8.0	6	42
Carolina	ST. LOUIS	0.3	-7.1	-6.2	3	37
CINCINNATI	Miami	1.0	0.6	-0.8	2	43 1/2
KANSAS CITY	Buffalo	11.6	12.6	14.4	7 1/2	44 1/2
Tennessee	SAN DIEGO	1.6	3.5	4.6	-4	44
ARIZONA	Tampa Bay	2.1	2.2	-0.3	3	39 1/2
OAKLAND	Seattle	0.6	1.7	-0.7	2 1/2	42
NEW ENGLAND	Minnesota	7.9	8.5	10.5	6	42 1/2
Pittsburgh	NEW ORLEANS	1.1	4.7	3.0	-1	44 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	Houston	7.8	8.4	7.5	5 1/2	49 1/2

 

PiRate QB Passer Ratings

Player	Team	AYPA	Int %	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	6.7	0.00	121.5
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	8.8	1.85	117.0
Peyton Manning	IND	6.9	0.79	115.7
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.3	1.45	106.5
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.1	1.13	102.6
Phillip Rivers	SD	6.7	2.22	102.0
Josh Freeman	TB	5.0	1.51	98.7
Matt Cassel	KC	5.5	1.96	97.5
Vince Young	TEN	5.4	1.98	96.8
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	2.00	96.6
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.3	1.98	96.2
Tom Brady	NE	5.3	2.02	95.9
Matt Schaub	HOU	5.7	2.54	93.6
Chad Henne	MIA	5.4	2.42	93.0
Carson Palmer	CIN	5.3	2.46	92.0
Joe Flacco	BAL	5.3	2.54	91.3
Kevin Kolb	PHI	4.9	2.61	88.4
Donovan McNabb	WAS	5.1	2.83	87.6
Tony Romo	DAL	5.7	3.29	87.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	5.4	3.13	86.7
Drew Brees	NO	5.1	3.48	81.9
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	4.1	2.94	81.1
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.4	3.83	80.5
Shaun Hill	DET	4.4	3.37	79.0
Sam Bradford	STL	3.7	3.08	77.6
Jay Cutler	CHI	4.8	3.87	76.8
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
Kerry Collins	TEN	4.8	4.17	74.2
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	4.3	3.92	73.6
Jason Campbell	OAK	3.6	3.60	72.4
Eli Manning	NYG	4.8	4.60	70.4
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	2.6	3.30	69.5
Derek Anderson	ARI	3.2	3.82	68.3
David Garrard	JAX	3.2	5.47	53.8
Brett Favre	MIN	3.3	5.59	53.3
Charlie Batch	PIT	3.7	6.12	50.8
Trent Edwards	JAX	1.4	5.26	45.5
Max Hall	ARI	0.9	5.08	44.3
Matt Moore	CAR	2.5	7.00	36.4

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It is the average pass yardage per attempt minus yards after catch.  This statistic is available at advancednflstats.com.

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 7–October 24-25, 2010

A PiRate Look at the Playoff Chase

Parity, shmarity!  12 and only 12 teams will make the playoffs, and 20 teams will not regardless of how close the 32 teams might be in talent.  How do we look for the playoff teams? 

We wish we could tell you we have a great formula like we have for picking the NCAA Basketball Tournament.  If you want to read about that, click on the College Basketball link on the right side of the page and read up on how successful our tournament formula has been in the past. 

The only tell-tale sign in back-testing that is worth a grain of salt is scoring margin.  Teams with scoring margins over 10 points per game have historically dominated in the playoffs.  At this point of the season, it is too early to use scoring margin due to a small sampling of games.  After 16 games, the strengths of schedule differ much less, but after six games, the margin is too much.

 

Let’s try to look at the divisions strictly by how well the teams appear to be playing. 

NFC East

 

Dallas can forget hosting the Super Bowl.  They won’t make the playoffs this season.  The Giants and Eagles have yet to play each other, but we feel like Philadelphia is a little better at this point and believe the Eagles will soar above the rest in the East.  New York will stay in the playoff race.  Washington looks like an 8-8 team. 

NFC North

 

Green Bay’s injury problems have left this division race open for three teams.  Minnesota should begin to play better offensively as Randy Moss gets more and more acclimated to his old digs.  Chicago appears to be lacking the offensive line strength to win 10 games.  The Bears could be 9-7 or 8-8, and we think 9-7 will not be enough to qualify as a Wildcard.  As for the Packers, it is going to be tough relying strictly on the passing game when the weather turns frigid.  We think Minnesota will win the North with a 10-6 record. 

NFC South

 

As soon as Tampa Bay proves to be unworthy of playoff mention, this will become a two-team race between Atlanta and New Orleans.  They could finish in a tie, with the tiebreaker loser gaining a Wildcard spot.  We think both could finish 11-5. 

NFC West

 

It has never happened before, but there is a chance it could happen this year.  No division winner has ever been 8-8 or worse, but it could happen in this division.  Arizona and San Francisco have little on offense, while Seattle and St. Louis have so much young and inconsistent talent.  If we had to pick one team to go 9-7, it would be Pete Carroll’s Seahawks. 

AFC East

 

With Buffalo primed to go 2-14 or worse and probably go 0-6 in division play, it allows the other three teams to clean up in the standings.  The Jets look like the class of the league at this point of the season, but they are not dominant yet.  New England is solid, while Miami has enough talent to stay in the playoff picture.  We will call for the Jets to win the division at 12-4 or 13-3 with the Patriots in the Wildcard picture at 11-5 or 12-4.  As for Miami, the Dolphins will stay in the hunt for most of the season before settling in at 9-7. 

AFC North

Pittsburgh and Baltimore are as strong collectively as the Jets and Patriots.  We feel strongly that both teams will make the playoffs with records in the 12-4 range.  Cincinnati is going to struggle to finish at 8-8, while Cleveland will lose double digit games again. 

AFC South

 

With the East and North both having two very good teams, there won’t be room for a Wildcard in this division.  Three teams sit tied at 4-2.  Houston’s defense will cost them a game or two down the stretch.  Tennessee and Indianapolis should decide this division in their head-to-head matchups.  We will go with the great Peyton Manning to pull off two close wins and give the Colts another division title at 11-5.  Jacksonville will more than likely be shopping for a new coach.  They should be shopping for a new city.  The Los Angeles Jaguars has a nice ring to it. 

AFC West

 

San Diego cannot win on the road, and the last time we checked, they have eight road games.  Denver has not started on fire this year and will not be 6-2 at the halfway point before they collapse in the second half.  Oakland is still a dozen quality players short, while Kansas City has shown just enough to lead this division.  We think the Chiefs could pull this off at 9-7. 

Our playoff Soothsayer sees this scenario:

 

NFC

1. Philadelphia

2. New Orleans

3. Minnesota

4. Seattle

W. Atlanta 

W. New York Giants 

AFC

1. New York Jets

2. Pittsburgh

3. Indianapolis

4. Kansas City

W. New England 

W. Baltimore 

 

Wildcard Round

New York Giants at Minnesota

Atlanta at Seattle 

Baltimore at Indianapolis

New England at Kansas City 

Divisional Round

 

Minnesota at Philadelphia

Seattle at New Orleans 

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh

New England at New York Jets

 

Conference Championship

New Orleans at Philadelphia

 

Pittsburgh at New York Jets 

SUPER BOWL

 

Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh 

Winner: The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

 

This Week’s PiRate Passer Ratings 

Player	Team	Comp%	Int %	AYPA	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	61.5	0.00	6.7	121.5
Peyton Manning	IND	67.3	0.79	6.9	115.7
Kyle Orton	DEN	62.8	1.21	6.7	110.8
Phillip Rivers	SD	62.3	2.27	7	103.2
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	55.4	1.13	5.1	102.6
Kevin Kolb	PHI	67.6	1.90	5.8	99.7
Jay Cutler	CHI	60.3	2.13	5.7	97.2
Vince Young	TEN	61.4	1.98	5.4	96.8
Seneca Wallace	CLE	63.0	2.00	5.4	96.6
Josh Freeman	TB	59.1	1.89	5.1	96.0
Matt Ryan	ATL	60.3	1.83	5	95.9
Tom Brady	NE	67.5	2.41	5.6	94.2
Donovan McNabb	WAS	58.1	2.33	5.4	93.8
Matt Schaub	HOU	64.5	2.54	5.7	93.6
Drew Brees	NO	70.6	2.60	5.7	93.1
Matt Cassel	KC	57.8	2.22	4.9	91.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	61.2	2.35	4.9	90.7
Chad Henne	MIA	63.2	2.92	5.1	86.8
Joe Flacco	BAL	60.5	2.93	5.1	86.8
Tony Romo	DAL	69.4	3.40	5.7	86.0
Carson Palmer	CIN	59.3	3.09	4.8	83.7
Aaron Rodgers	GB	64.2	3.48	5.3	83.0
Shaun Hill	DET	61.1	3.37	4.4	79.0
Eli Manning	NYG	64.7	3.92	4.9	76.9
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	61.4	3.61	4.2	75.7
Sam Bradford	STL	56.8	3.42	3.6	74.1
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	52.0	3.92	4.3	73.6
Alex Smith	SF	60.1	4.04	4.1	71.4
Jimmie Clausen	CAR	47.3	3.30	2.6	69.5
Brett Favre	MIN	58.7	4.67	3.5	62.5
Derek Anderson	ARI	51.8	4.39	2.8	61.1
Jason Campbell	OAK	56.0	4.40	2.6	59.9
David Garrard	JAX	65.6	5.47	3.2	53.8
Charlie Batch	PIT	59.2	6.12	3.7	50.8
Trent Edwards	JAX	56.6	5.26	1.4	45.5
Jake Delhomme	CLE	55.0	6.67	2.2	37.7
Matt Moore	CAR	42.4	10.17	0.2	-4.4

 

The PiRate Passer Formula is: ((7* AYPA) – (11* Int.%)) +105] * 0.8

 

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Passing Yards minus Yards After Catch. 

This statistic is available at advancednflstats.com

This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	PPG	Opp
Philadelphia Eagles	105.0	103.2	104.9	4-2-0	28.2	20.0
Dallas Cowboys	103.1	101.1	99.9	1-4-0	20.4	22.2
New York Giants	102.8	102.9	103.2	4-2-0	22.3	19.7
Washington Redskins	98.6	100.1	98.2	3-3-0	18.8	19.8
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota Vikings	103.1	102.0	100.7	2-3-0	17.4	17.6
Green Bay Packers	102.4	102.6	100.7	3-3-0	23.2	18.7
Chicago Bears	98.9	100.1	99.5	4-2-0	18.7	16.2
Detroit Lions	96.5	98.6	93.9	1-5-0	24.3	23.3
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans Saints	104.6	102.4	104.1	4-2-0	21.7	18.0
Atlanta Falcons	103.6	103.6	102.3	4-2-0	21.7	16.8
Carolina Panthers	97.1	92.2	89.8	0-5-0	10.4	22.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	92.6	95.4	96.7	3-2-0	16.0	22.2
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Seattle Seahawks	97.4	97.3	98.6	3-2-0	19.6	19.4
San Francisco 49ers	97.1	95.6	95.8	1-5-0	16.3	23.2
St. Louis Rams	94.6	95.2	97.1	3-3-0	17.2	18.8
Arizona Cardinals	94.0	96.9	97.3	3-2-0	17.6	27.6
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New York Jets	110.4	108.1	109.4	5-1-0	26.5	16.8
New England Patriots	106.4	106.1	107.0	4-1-0	30.8	23.2
Miami Dolphins	101.4	99.4	101.7	3-2-0	17.8	22.4
Buffalo Bills	91.6	90.5	88.9	0-5-0	17.4	32.6
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore Ravens	106.5	106.0	107.6	4-2-0	18.7	15.8
Pittsburgh Steelers	105.4	107.9	106.6	4-1-0	22.8	12.0
Cincinnati Bengals	100.5	99.0	99.0	2-3-0	20.0	20.4
Cleveland Browns	95.2	95.8	94.9	1-5-0	14.7	20.8
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis Colts	105.1	105.5	105.4	4-2-0	27.2	20.8
Tennessee Titans	103.2	107.0	105.3	4-2-0	27.0	16.3
Houston Texans	100.3	98.7	102.5	4-2-0	25.5	27.8
Jacksonville Jaguars	92.5	93.9	97.6	3-3-0	18.3	27.8
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego Chargers	99.9	99.6	100.2	2-4-0	26.2	21.0
Kansas City Chiefs	99.6	99.6	100.7	3-2-0	21.6	18.4
Denver Broncos	97.6	99.6	97.3	2-4-0	20.7	23.3
Oakland Raiders	93.4	94.1	93.0	2-4-0	20.0	25.2

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 7: October 24-25, 2010
Vegas Line as of 3:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Pittsburgh	MIAMI	2.0	6.5	2.9	3	40 ½
ATLANTA	Cincinnati	6.1	7.6	6.3	3 1/2	43
KANSAS CITY	Jacksonville	10.1	8.7	6.1	4 1/2	43
TENNESSEE	Philadelphia	1.2	6.8	3.4	3	44
CHICAGO	Washington	3.3	3.0	4.3	3	40
NEW ORLEANS	Cleveland	12.4	9.6	6.2	13	43
BALTIMORE	Buffalo	17.9	18.5	21.7	13	38
CAROLINA	San Francisco	2.0	-1.4	-4.0	-3	35
TAMPA BAY	St. Louis	0.0	2.2	1.6	3	38 ½
SEATTLE	Arizona	5.4	2.4	3.3	5 1/2	40 ½
New England	SAN DIEGO	2.5	2.5	2.8	-3	47
DENVER	Oakland	7.2	8.5	7.3	7	42 ½
GREEN BAY	Minnesota	2.3	2.6	3.0	2 1/2	44 ½
DALLAS	New York Giants	2.3	0.2	-1.3	3 1/2	44 ½



PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 6–October 17-18, 2010

Parity USA

 

For the first time since 1970, no NFL team won its first four games.  Let’s take a brief look at that season 40 years ago. 

 

It was the first season that the old AFL and the NFL were fully merged.  Baltimore (then the Colts), Pittsburgh, and Cleveland joined the new AFC, leaving 13 teams in each conference.

 

The divisional races were exciting with many unexpected turns.  In the AFC Central, the Cincinnati Bengals began the year losing six of their first seven games.  It appeared that Coach Paul Brown had lost the touch that had made him so successful with Cleveland.  The Bengals were in last place, three games behind their older in-state rival and given up for dead.  Just when it appeared like they would be in the hunt for the first pick in the next NFL Draft, a pick that would most assuredly be Jim Plunkett, the Bengals’ defense caught fire.  After giving up more than 25 points per game in the first half of the season, they gave up just 11 in the second half.  Seven consecutive wins later, Cincinnati had passed Houston, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland to win the AFC Central with an 8-6-0 record.

 

In the AFC West, the Oakland Raiders came down to Earth after a three-year run which saw go 37-4-1.  Quarterback Daryle Lamonica was beginning to show signs of aging, so what did Coach John Madden do?  He inserted an even older quarterback into the lineup.  George Blanda won five comeback five games with his passing and kicking to propel Oakland from a 3-2-2 start to an 8-4-2 finish, passing Denver and Kansas City in the standings.

 

In the AFC East, John Unitas was beginning to show his age, but he had enough left in the tank to combine with a really good Colts’ defense to lead Baltimore to the best record in the conference.  Upstart Miami, with first year coach Don Shula enjoyed its first winning season, finishing 10-4 and earning the wildcard.

 

The NFC had its share of wild races.  In the East, the St. Louis Cardinals looked unbeatable when they shut out the Dallas Cowboys 38-0 on Monday Night Football.  The blowout moved the Cardinals to 7-2 and dropped the Cowboys to 5-4, a game behind the New York Giants at 6-3. 

 

The Giants led a host of teams vying for the wildcard berth.  Los Angeles stood one half game back at 5-3-1, while Detroit and Green Bay joined Dallas at 5-4.  The Lions would have been 6-3, but a 63-yard field goal by Tom Dempsey of the lowly Saints did them in.

 

What happened in the final five weeks?  St. Louis fell apart following the win over Dallas.  They tied Kansas City and beat the weak Philadelphia Eagles to move to 8-2-1 and looked to be in control.  But, that was their last win of the season.  At 8-5-1, they missed the playoffs altogether.

 

The Giants moved into first in the division by defeating the Cardinals in week 13 34-17, and at 9-4, they needed a win in the finale to secure the division title.  They never threatened in losing to the Rams by four touchdowns.

 

The Cowboys caught fire after the pasting in prime time.  They won five in a row to win the division on the final weekend.

 

The Minnesota Vikings rode the best defense in the league to a second consecutive 12-2-0 finish.  The San Francisco 49ers had the NFL’s top offense with quarterback John Brodie having an All-Pro season.  They made the playoffs for the first time in 13 seasons (in 1957, they were in a playoff for the division title and lost to Detroit).

 

As for the wildcard berth, the Packers forgot how to score and fell out of the race, going on to lose four of their final five.  The Rams and Lions began to pull away from the rest, and the two faced off in week 13 on Monday Night Football at the Coliseum in Los Angeles.  The Lions won an exciting game to move a half game in front of the Rams at 9-4.  They clinched the spot the following week with a 20-0 win over Green Bay.

 

You can see a lot of possible similarities in this year’s races.  Could the San Francisco 49ers still catch fire and be this year’s version of the Bengals?  The NFC West is weak enough so that 8-8 could win the division.  Might Mike Singletary be able to coax the Prospectors to a 8-3 finish?

 

Dallas could be the team that comes from off the pace to win the division.  The Giants, Eagles, and Redskins are all capable of losing two or three in a row.

 

What about the Vikings?  Is Brett Favre going to rebound?  Can the Bears be the surprise team in the North and win the division much like the 49ers emerged in 1970.  What about the Chiefs?  Are they going to be like San Francisco was and win the division title in a big surprise?  Might they earn a wildcard like the upstart 1970 Dolphins, or will they be like the Cardinals and collapse in the second half?

 

It will be interesting in this season of parity.  Expect to see about 10 teams competing for three or four playoff spots in the final couple of weeks.

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	PPG	Opp
Dallas	104.2	102.2	102.3	1-3-0	20.3	27.8
Philadelphia	102.0	100.5	100.3	3-2-0	24.4	20.6
New York Giants	100.7	99.0	99.1	3-2-0	21.2	19.6
Washington	98.1	99.4	97.5	3-2-0	17.8	18.4
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	104.2	104.3	104.5	3-2-0	23.8	17.8
Minnesota	103.3	101.7	102.0	1-3-0	15.8	16.8
Chicago	100.9	99.7	101.1	4-1-0	18.4	14.8
Detroit	94.3	94.0	95.7	1-4-0	25.2	22.4
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Atlanta	105.7	104.5	105.4	4-1-0	22.6	14.0
New Orleans	103.3	103.0	103.4	3-2-0	19.4	20.4
Carolina	97.9	94.9	95.9	0-5-0	10.4	22.0
Tampa Bay	94.3	97.6	97.6	3-1-0	14.8	16.0
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco	97.2	94.6	92.8	0-5-0	15.2	26.0
Seattle	94.5	95.7	95.4	2-2-0	18.8	19.3
St. Louis	94.0	96.5	97.3	2-3-0	16.6	19.2
Arizona	92.5	94.3	94.2	3-2-0	17.6	27.6
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	111.1	108.2	109.0	4-1-0	27.0	16.2
New England	106.6	106.1	106.5	3-1-0	32.8	24.0
Miami	100.1	98.6	101.3	2-2-0	16.5	23.0
Buffalo	92.6	93.7	93.4	0-5-0	17.4	32.6
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	106.1	105.6	106.3	4-1-0	18.4	14.4
Pittsburgh	103.7	107.0	105.5	3-1-0	21.5	12.5
Cincinnati	101.6	100.8	100.9	2-3-0	20.0	20.4
Cleveland	97.4	97.3	96.3	1-4-0	15.6	19.4
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	104.9	104.4	103.4	3-2-0	27.2	20.2
Houston	101.9	101.5	103.5	3-2-0	23.6	27.2
Tennessee	99.4	102.3	99.5	3-2-0	26.4	19.0
Jacksonville	94.1	95.0	95.2	3-2-0	21.4	27.4
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego	103.8	103.5	103.0	2-3-0	28.0	21.2
Kansas City	100.5	101.8	100.9	3-1-0	19.3	14.3
Denver	97.0	99.1	97.8	2-3-0	20.8	23.2
Oakland	92.4	93.0	92.7	2-3-0	22.2	26.8

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 6: October 17-18, 2010
Vegas Line as of 2:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
San Diego	ST. LOUIS	8.5	4.1	6.2	8 1/2	45
HOUSTON	Kansas City	1.3	-0.6	1.3	4 1/2	44
NEW ENGLAND	Baltimore	4.3	3.3	2.7	3	44 1/2
New Orleans	TAMPA BAY	4.4	-2.6	1.8	5	44
Atlanta	PHILADELPHIA	1.8	2.5	1.4	NL	NL
NEW YORK GIANTS	Detroit	9.7	6.2	10.4	10	44 1/2
CHICAGO	Seattle	10.2	10.0	10.0	7	40
GREEN BAY	Miami	6.6	10.1	5.1	NL	NL
PITTSBURGH	Cleveland	8.8	12.7	11.5	13 1/2	37
New York Jets	DENVER	11.4	5.8	7.6	3	40 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO	Oakland	7.1	3.1	3.3	6 1/2	41
MINNESOTA	Dallas	4.2	4.6	4.2	1 1/2	43 1/2
Indianapolis	WASHINGTON	3.5	2.5	2.4	3 1/2	43 1/2
Tennessee	JACKSONVILLE	2.5	6.3	0.6	3	44 1/2

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 5–October 10-11, 2010

Four weeks into the NFL season gives us enough time to begin to make assumptions.  There just may not be a great team in the league this year.  The Kansas City Chiefs are the only undefeated team left, and it is a good bet they will not be so after this week.

We have a lot of mediocre teams and a handful of good but not great teams.  Scoring is down this year.  That gives the odds makers quite a dilemma.  The underdog is covering more than ever this year.  The lines will be shorter, and this will create many instances where sweetheart teaser plays become more advantageous.

If a team that should be a five-point favorite all of a sudden becomes a two and a half-point favorite, then playing a 10-point teaser to make them a seven and a half-point underdog becomes truly sweet and playing a 13-point teaser to make them a 10 ½-point underdog becomes money in the bank.

The PiRates are having a great time playing these NFL sweetheart teasers so far this year.  In fact, we may have to consider not playing any college games and picking just NFL games, at least as long as this hot streak continues.

We have also fattened up on money line parlays that take advantage of the fact that favorites are still winning but not covering.  The lower the regular spread, the lower the money line odds. 

                                                PiRate QB Passer Ratings                                       

 

Player	Team	AYPA	INT%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	6.7	0.00	121.5
Peyton Manning	IND	7.4	0.58	120.3
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	6.1	0.00	118.2
Tony Romo	DAL	6.6	1.56	107.2
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.6	1.71	105.9
Donovan McNabb	WAS	6.5	1.65	105.9
Tom Brady	NE	6.3	1.64	104.9
Drew Brees	NO	6.2	1.79	103.0
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.3	2.84	99.9
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	1.82	98.2
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.1	2.01	94.8
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.6	2.86	90.2
Jay Cutler	CHI	5.7	2.94	90.0
Josh Freeman	TB	4.8	2.41	89.7
Matt Shcaub	HOU	5.6	3.08	88.3
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.4	2.46	87.0
Chad Henne	MIA	5.2	3.03	86.5
Vince Young	TEN	4.8	2.82	86.1
Kevin Kolb	PHI	3.3	2.22	82.9
Dennis Dixon	PIT	4.5	3.13	81.7
Matt Cassel	KC	4.4	3.90	74.4
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	4.5	4.21	72.1
Eli Manning	NYG	4.8	4.55	70.9
Sam Bradford	STL	3.6	3.80	70.7
Joe Flacco	BAL	3.8	4.63	64.5
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	3.0	4.17	64.1
Shaun Hill	DET	3.7	4.67	63.6
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	3.7	4.76	62.8
Alex Smith	SF	3.5	4.64	62.8
Jason Campbell	OAK	2.2	3.85	62.5
Derek Anderson	ARI	2.8	4.46	60.4
Trent Edwards	BUF	1.5	3.85	58.6
Jake Delhomme	CLE	3.7	5.41	57.2
David Garrard	JAX	3.0	5.21	55.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	5.2	7.14	50.3
Brett Favre	MIN	2.8	6.19	45.2
Charlie Batch	PIT	3.8	7.14	42.4
Matt Moore	CAR	1.2	8.16	18.9
PiRate Passer Rating Formula: [(AYPA * 7) – (11 * Int%) + 105] * 0.8

 

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	PPG	Opp
Dallas	104.2	102.2	102.3	1-2-0	18.0	17.7
Philadelphia	102.0	100.5	100.3	2-2-0	23.8	19.8
New York Giants	100.7	99.0	99.1	2-2-0	18.0	22.0
Washington	98.1	99.4	97.5	2-2-0	18.3	19.8
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	104.2	104.3	104.5	3-1-0	26.5	18.3
Minnesota	103.3	101.7	102.0	1-2-0	14.3	12.7
Chicago	100.9	99.7	101.1	3-1-0	17.3	17.0
Detroit	94.3	94.0	95.7	0-4-0	20.5	26.5
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Atlanta	105.7	104.5	105.4	3-1-0	23.3	15.0
New Orleans	103.3	103.0	103.4	3-1-0	19.8	18.0
Carolina	97.9	94.9	95.9	0-4-0	11.5	21.8
Tampa Bay	94.3	97.6	97.6	2-1-0	16.7	19.7
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco	97.2	94.6	92.8	0-4-0	13.0	25.8
Seattle	94.5	95.7	95.4	2-2-0	18.8	19.3
St. Louis	94.0	96.5	97.3	2-2-0	19.3	13.0
Arizona	92.5	94.3	94.2	2-2-0	14.5	29.5
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	111.1	108.2	109.0	3-1-0	26.5	15.3
New England	106.6	106.1	106.5	3-1-0	32.8	24.0
Miami	100.1	98.6	101.3	2-2-0	16.5	23.0
Buffalo	92.6	93.7	93.4	0-4-0	15.3	31.3
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	106.1	105.6	106.3	3-1-0	15.3	13.8
Pittsburgh	103.7	107.0	105.5	3-1-0	21.5	12.5
Cincinnati	101.6	100.8	100.9	2-2-0	19.8	19.5
Cleveland	97.4	97.3	96.3	1-3-0	17.0	19.3
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	104.9	104.4	103.4	2-2-0	29.3	23.0
Houston	101.9	101.5	103.5	3-1-0	27.0	25.5
Tennessee	99.4	102.3	99.5	2-2-0	24.5	17.0
Jacksonville	94.1	95.0	95.2	2-2-0	17.8	27.8
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego	103.8	103.5	103.0	2-2-0	28.3	17.8
Kansas City	100.5	101.8	100.9	3-0-0	22.7	10.3
Denver	97.0	99.1	97.8	2-2-0	21.8	21.3
Oakland	92.4	93.0	92.7	1-3-0	19.0	26.8

 

This Week’s Games                                                                

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site                                                       

                                                                       

Week 5: October 10-11, 2010                                                            

Vegas Line as of 11:00 PM EDT Tuesday                                                                

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 5: October 10-11, 2010
Vegas Line as of 11:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
BALTIMORE	Denver	12.1	9.5	11.5	7	38 1/2
BUFFALO	Jacksonville	1.5	1.7	1.2	Pk	41
INDIANAPOLIS	Kansas City	7.4	5.6	5.5	8	44 1/2
DETROIT	St. Louis	3.3	0.5	1.4	3	42 1/2
Atlanta	CLEVELAND	5.3	4.2	6.1	3	40 1/2
CINCINNATI	Tampa Bay	9.3	5.2	5.3	6 1/2	38
Chicago	CAROLINA	0.0	1.8	2.2	2 1/2	35 1/2
Green Bay	WASHINGTON	3.1	1.9	4.0	2 1/2	44
HOUSTON	New York Giants	3.2	4.5	6.4	3	47 1/2
New Orleans	ARIZONA	8.8	6.7	7.2	6 1/2	45 1/2
San Diego	OAKLAND	9.4	8.5	8.3	6	45
DALLAS	Tennessee	7.8	2.9	5.8	6 1/2	41 1/2
Philadelphia	SAN FRANCISCO	0.8	1.9	3.5	-3	38
NEW YORK JETS	Minnesota	9.8	8.5	9.0	4	38 1/2

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 4–October 3-4, 2010

Week 3 PiRate Passer Ratings *

Player	Team	AYPA	Int %	PiRate #
Peyton Manning	IND	7.7	0.00	127.1
Michael Vick	PHI	6.7	0.00	121.5
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	6.1	0.00	118.2
Donovan McNabb	WAS	7.0	0.98	114.6
Kyle Orton	DEN	7.4	1.60	111.4
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.7	0.94	107.6
Tony Romo	DAL	6.6	1.56	107.2
Chad Henne	MIA	5.8	1.08	107.0
Jay Cutler	CHI	7.5	2.20	106.7
Drew Brees	NO	6.2	1.79	103.0
Tom Brady	NE	6.5	2.04	102.4
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	1.82	98.2
Phillip Rivers	SD	6.7	3.31	92.4
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.6	2.86	90.2
Josh Freeman	TB	4.8	2.41	89.7
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.4	2.46	87.0
Dennis Dixon	PIT	4.5	3.13	81.7
Brad Gradkowski	OAK	5.1	3.57	81.1
Matt Schaub	HOU	5.4	3.96	79.4
Derek Anderson	ARI	3.7	3.06	77.8
Matt Cassel	KC	4.4	3.90	74.4
Kerry Collins	TEN	3.7	4.00	69.5
Alex Smith	SF	3.7	4.20	67.7
Vince Young	TEN	4.3	4.65	67.1
Joe Flacco	BAL	3.8	4.63	64.5
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	3.0	4.17	64.1
Sam Bradford	STL	3.1	4.27	63.8
Shaun Hill	DET	3.7	4.67	63.6
Jason Campbell	OAK	2.2	3.85	62.5
Trent Edwards	BUF	1.5	3.85	58.6
Eli Manning	NYG	4.5	5.88	57.4
Jake Delhomme	CLE	3.7	5.41	57.2
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	3.9	5.56	57.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	5.2	7.14	50.3
Brett Favre	MIN	2.8	6.19	45.2
Charlie Batch	PIT	3.8	7.14	42.4
David Garrard	JAX	1.8	6.76	34.6
Matt Moore	CAR	1.2	8.16	18.9

 

* PiRate Passer Rating Formula: [(AYPA * 7) – (11 * Int%) + 105] * 0.8

Where AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (passing yards minus yards after catch)

AYPA is available at advancednflstats.com

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	PPG	Opp
Dallas	104.2	102.4	103.6	1-2-0	18.0	17.7
Philadelphia	103.3	103.1	103.6	2-1-0	27.7	20.7
New York Giants	98.8	94.8	97.4	1-2-0	18.3	28.3
Washington	96.8	99.4	95.6	1-2-0	18.7	22.3
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	105.8	106.6	107.8	2-1-0	26.0	15.7
Minnesota	103.3	102.5	102.3	1-2-0	14.3	12.7
Chicago	102.3	102.0	104.4	3-0-0	22.0	17.0
Detroit	92.7	95.1	92.7	0-3-0	18.7	26.0
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Atlanta	106.3	108.9	107.7	2-1-0	25.7	15.3
New Orleans	104.5	104.8	106.0	2-1-0	21.0	19.3
Carolina	96.7	90.7	91.4	0-3-0	10.7	23.7
Tampa Bay	94.3	94.8	97.1	2-1-0	16.7	19.7
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco	96.4	93.2	95.4	0-3-0	10.3	29.0
Arizona	95.6	97.5	97.9	2-1-0	16.0	25.7
Seattle	95.5	99.3	100.1	2-1-0	24.0	19.0
St. Louis	92.5	96.2	94.7	1-2-0	19.0	16.3
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	108.6	104.4	106.7	2-1-0	22.7	15.7
New England	104.6	100.4	104.5	2-1-0	30.0	27.3
Miami	102.1	101.6	101.2	2-1-0	17.3	17.0
Buffalo	95.6	94.0	91.2	0-3-0	15.7	29.0
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	104.8	101.9	103.7	2-1-0	14.7	13.7
Pittsburgh	104.5	107.7	107.7	3-0-0	24.0	11.0
Cincinnati	102.3	98.1	102.4	2-1-0	19.7	18.3
Cleveland	96.7	95.7	94.8	0-3-0	15.0	19.0
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	105.9	109.7	107.8	2-1-0	29.7	20.3
Houston	101.7	103.8	103.4	2-1-0	25.7	26.0
Tennessee	101.1	102.6	102.5	2-1-0	26.0	14.0
Jacksonville	93.1	93.4	91.2	1-2-0	13.3	27.7
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego	101.2	101.6	99.9	1-2-0	24.0	20.3
Kansas City	100.5	100.4	99.5	3-0-0	22.7	10.3
Denver	95.8	100.6	96.8	1-2-0	20.3	21.7
Oakland	92.6	92.3	89.1	1-2-0	17.3	25.3

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 4: October 3-4, 2010
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
TENNESSEE	Denver	8.3	5.0	8.7	6 1/2	41 1/2
PITTSBURGH	Baltimore	2.7	8.8	7.0	1 1/2	34 1/2
Cincinnati	CLEVELAND	3.6	0.4	5.6	3	37 1/2
GREEN BAY	Detroit	16.1	14.5	18.1	14 1/2	45 1/2
NEW ORLEANS	Carolina	10.8	17.1	17.6	13	44
ATLANTA	San Francisco	12.9	18.7	15.3	7	42
Seattle	ST. LOUIS	1.0	1.1	3.4	Pk	38 1/2
New York Jets	BUFFALO	10.0	7.4	12.5	5	37
Indianapolis	JACKSONVILLE	9.8	13.3	13.6	7 1/2	46 1/2
Houston	OAKLAND	7.1	9.5	12.3	3	43 1/2
SAN DIEGO	Arizona	7.6	6.1	4.0	8	46
PHILADELPHIA	Washington	9.5	6.7	11.0	6	42 1/2
Chicago	NEW YORK GIANTS	0.5	4.2	4.0	-4	44
New England	MIAMI	0.5	-3.2	1.3	Pk	45 1/2

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 2–September 19-20, 2010

18.3!  That is the average number of points scored per team in the opening week of the 2010 NFL season.  That is a little more than a field goal less per team compared to last year.  Is this a sign that scoring is about to become harder in the league, or is it more of a case of so many closely-matched contests in week one?  We will have to wait a couple of weeks before we can begin to make an assumption.

Week two finds a handful of interesting games on the slate.  The Jets hook up with the Pats, and it is almost a must-win game for Coach Rex Ryan and his crew.  After losing Monday night at home to Baltimore, a loss would to New England would give Team Belichick a two-game edge in the AFC East.

Indianapolis hosts the Giants in a battle of Manning vs. Manning.  The Colts could not stop the Houston running game, and the Texans are not a rushing behemoth.  If Eli and company get the best of Peyton and company, the Colts could be two games behind the rest of the division.

Kansas City visits Cleveland, and if the Chiefs can pull off the road win over a weak Browns’ team, they will become a legitimate threat in the AFC West.  The Chiefs get Cleveland and Buffalo as part of finishing fourth in the division last year, while the Chargers must play New England and Cincinnati. 

Dallas hosts Chicago, and the Cowboys must rebound or else they could find themselves in a hole they cannot crawl out of.  Jerry Jones might even begin to consider his options if the Cowboys lay another egg offensively this week.  The mental anguish of having the winning touchdown called back could do to Dallas what Virginia Tech’s loss to Boise State did to the Hokies.  Additionally, Chicago benefitted from a final play penalty to beat Detroit, and the Bears could get a positive bounce from that event.

The Saints and Vikings got an extra three days to prepare for their second games.  Minnesota hosts Miami.  The Dolphins struggled to beat the hapless Bills, and the Vikes are much better at home than they are on the road.  After the opening touchdown drive, Minnesota’s defense shut down Drew Brees.

The Saints fly into a hornet’s nest in San Francisco.  Mike Singletary will have the 49ers hopping mad after the embarrassing loss at Seattle.

                Week One PiRate Passer Ratings *                                

Player	Team	PiRate #
David Garrard	JAX	126.0
VinceYoung	TEN	125.4
Tom Brady	N-E	125.4
Peyton Manning	IND	123.8
Phil Rivers	S-D	122.1
Drew Brees	N-O	118.7
Derek Anderson	ARI	118.7
Michael Vick	PHI	118.2
Tony Romo	DAL	116.5
Donovan McNabb	WAS	111.4
Chad Henne	MIA	108.6
Matthew Stafford	DET	108.1
Jay Cutler	CHI	104.2
Trent Edwards	BUF	101.4
Matt Cassel	K-C	99.1
Carson Palmer	CIN	98.9
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	98.6
Kyle Orton	DEN	93.2
Matt Ryan	ATL	87.5
Joe Flacco	BAL	87.2
Dennis Dixon	PIT	82.1
Josh Freeman	T-B	75.0
Brett Favre	MIN	74.9
Jason Campbell	OAK	74.8
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	73.7
Alex Smith	S-F	59.4
Jake Delhomme	CLE	57.2
Matt Schaub	HOU	47.9
Shaun Hill	DET	47.2
Sam Bradford	STL	46.1
Aaron Rodgers	G-B	40.1
Eli Manning	NYG	18.4
Matt Moore	CAR	6.2

 

* PiRate Passer Rating: [((7 x AYPA) – (10 x Int. %)) + 105] x 0.8

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (eliminates Yards After the Catch)

 

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
Bitmap NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Dallas	103.6	102.7	101.1	0-1-0	7	13
New York Giants	101.5	102.5	101.9	1-0-0	31	18
Philadelphia	101.0	100.8	99.0	0-1-0	20	27
Washington	99.2	100.6	98.7	1-0-0	13	7
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	104.8	106.7	105.8	1-0-0	27	20
Minnesota	104.6	105.2	105.5	0-1-0	9	14
Chicago	100.3	96.8	99.9	1-0-0	19	14
Detroit	92.3	91.3	92.4	0-1-0	14	19
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans	105.4	107.7	107.9	1-0-0	14	9
Atlanta	103.9	102.3	102.9	0-1-0	9	15
Carolina	100.1	100.4	98.2	0-1-0	18	31
Tampa Bay	94.7	96.7	94.6	1-0-0	17	14
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco	98.6	95.8	98.2	0-1-0	6	31
Arizona	98.3	98.6	98.7	1-0-0	17	13
Seattle	95.2	98.4	98.0	1-0-0	31	6
St. Louis	90.3	90.7	91.3	0-1-0	13	17
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	106.8	103.2	104.3	0-1-0	9	10
New England	106.1	104.4	107.4	1-0-0	38	24
Miami	101.7	101.3	101.7	1-0-0	15	10
Buffalo	97.0	95.2	95.9	0-1-0	10	15
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	106.1	105.2	106.9	1-0-0	10	9
Pittsburgh	101.7	102.9	102.6	1-0-0	15	9
Cincinnati	99.9	98.9	99.6	0-1-0	24	38
Cleveland	96.9	95.0	94.1	0-1-0	14	17
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Houston	103.7	104.3	103.3	1-0-0	34	24
Indianapolis	103.2	103.9	103.1	0-1-0	24	34
Tennessee	100.5	102.6	102.9	1-0-0	38	13
Jacksonville	96.9	97.8	98.2	1-0-0	24	17
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego	101.2	101.8	101.1	0-1-0	14	21
Kansas City	97.0	98.7	97.8	1-0-0	21	14
Denver	96.0	95.8	96.4	0-1-0	17	24
Oakland	91.6	92.0	90.6	0-1-0	13	38
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 2: Sept. 19-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of: 10:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
CLEVELAND	Kansas City	2.9	-0.7	-0.7	1	38
GREEN BAY	Buffalo	10.8	14.5	12.9	13	43
Baltimore	CINCINNATI	4.2	4.3	5.3	2 1/2	40
TENNESSEE	Pittsburgh	1.8	2.7	3.3	4 1/2	37
Philadelphia	DETROIT	5.7	6.5	3.6	5	42
DALLAS	Chicago	6.3	8.9	4.2	7 1/2	41
CAROLINA	Tampa Bay	8.4	6.7	6.6	NL	NL
ATLANTA	Arizona	8.6	6.7	7.2	6 1/2	43
MINNESOTA	Miami	6.9	7.9	7.8	5 1/2	39 1/2
OAKLAND	St. Louis	3.3	3.3	1.3	3 1/2	37 1/2
DENVER	Seattle	3.8	0.4	1.4	3 1/2	40
Houston	WASHINGTON	1.5	0.7	1.6	3	44
SAN DIEGO	Jacksonville	6.3	6.0	4.9	7 1/2	45 1/2
NEW YORK JETS	New England	2.7	0.8	-1.1	-1 1/2	38 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	New York Giants	4.7	4.4	4.2	5 1/2	48
New Orleans	SAN FRANCISCO	2.8	7.9	5.7	4 1/2	44

Introducing the PiRate NFL Pass Rating Formula

 

The National Football League has been using the same pass rating formula for multiple decades.  It uses a combination of completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns, and interceptions.  If you want to calculate it on your own, here it is:

 

I.     (Completion Percentage-30.0) * 0.05 +

II.    (Yards per attempt-3.0) * 0.25 +

III.   (20 * touchdowns per pass attempt) +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * interceptions per pass attempt)

 

If any of these four components are greater than 2.375, then cap the value at 2.375

 

Add these four stats together and multiple them by 16.667 to get the passer rating.  Here is an example:

 

In 1963, Y. A. Tittle had these stats for the New York Giants

Completions 221  Attempts 367  Yards 3145  Touchdowns 36  Interceptions 14

 

I.     (60.20 – 30.0) * 0.05 = 1.51  +

II.    (8.57-3.0) * 0.25 = 1.39        +

III.   (20 * .098) = 1.96                +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * .038) = 1.43    +

 

 Subtotal = 6.29     6.29 * 16.667 =

                     104.8

 

Once you know this formula, you can easily plug it into a spreadsheet and figure the ratings.  However, these ratings are a poor way to select the most efficient passer.

 

Let’s take a look at two opposing passers, Smith and Jones.

 

Smith completes 15 of 24 passes for 3 touchdowns with no interceptions.

 

Jones completes 10 of 24 passes for 0 touchdowns and 1 interception.

 

Smith is obviously much better, correct?  No, not correct.  It depends on several other things.  What if Jones has a lousy offensive line or receivers that drop every other pass thrown to them?  What if Smith has all day to pass with Jerry Rice-type receivers?  All these stats show us are just that—their stats.

 

Smith could have completed six passes to backs behind the line of scrimmage with the backs following blocking for long gains.  Jones could have threaded the needle with 30 yard passes to the deep sidelines only to have had them dropped by inept receivers.

 

In essence no pass-rating formula is worth a grain of salt.  Let’s look at two separate plays.  Passer A completes 13-yard pass for a touchdown.  It is a dump pass into the flat to the tailback with the tailback avoiding three defenders as he streaks into the end zone.  This one pass gets the NFL Maximum rating of 158.3.

 

Now, let’s look at Passer B.  His team is backed up at their own 1 yard line. He drops back and fires a bomb 55 yards through the air that comes down perfectly in the hands of his flanker.  The flanker takes off down the sideline and is knocked out just one yard from scoring.  This 98-yard pass gives Passer B a rating of 118.8!  Peyton Manning actually had a better total season rating than this a couple years ago, and even though he ranks among the best ever, he was not worth a 98-yard completion every time he threw the ball!

 

Can this be?  You betcha!  The rating is flawed.  Obviously the brilliantly thrown pass that travelled 55 yards past the line of scrimmage that comes down perfectly in the hands of the intended receiver should be worth a lot more than the dump pass that I could complete given two seconds protection.

 

Here is where the PiRate Pass Rating Formula tries to correct the incorrect values of the NFL Pass Rating Formula.

 

Our formula looks at just two statistics.  The first is interception percentage.  An intercepted pass is worth anywhere from 3 to 7 points for the other team on average.  We realize that all interceptions are not the same.  A poorly thrown pass into the flat at the offense’s 20-yard line hurts much more than a 3rd and 25 pass thrown 40 yards downfield and intercepted by the defense. 

 

The second stat is called “Air Yards Per Attempt,” or AYPA.  It is simply the passing yardage minus the yards after catch.  If Passer A completed a 51-yard pass for a touchdown, but the play consisted of a pass completed to a tailback one yard past the line of scrimmage with the back running for 50 yards, the passer gets credit for an AYPA of 1 yard (51 yard pass – 50 yards after the catch).

 

Here is the PiRate Pass Rating Formula:

[AYPA * 7 – (11 * Interception %) + 105] * 0.8

 Interception percentage is figured as: (Interceptions/Attempts) *100

 Anything over 100 is an excellent rating.  Over 90 means the QB is above average.  80 would be considered average; below 80 means this QB should be looking over his shoulder for a replacement to take his job.

 In our passer rating, we don’t include passing percentage or touchdown passes.  Yards gained are what matters.  Three consecutive completed passes that gain a total of nine yards means 4th & 1.  Two incomplete passes followed by an 11 yard completion means 1st & 10.  Which outcome is better?

 Touchdowns skew the ratings.  If one coach sends in passing plays at the opponents’ one yard line, while another sends his 240-pound power back to plunge over the goal, the quarterbacks will get too much credit in once instance and no credit in the other. 

 Let’s take a look at the PiRate Rating in action.  First, you must be wondering where can you find AYPA?  There is an excellent website that carries this stat, so you don’t have to try to figure out the YAC for each QB.  Go to: www.advancednflstats.com. 

 Here is a look at both ratings side-by-side:

Player	PiRate QB Rating		Player	Official NFL Rating
Aaron Rodgers	108.9	|||	Drew Brees	109.6
Drew Brees	107.5	|||	Brett Favre	107.2
Brett Favre	106.7	|||	Phil Rivers	104.4
Tony Romo	105.6	|||	Aaron Rodgers	103.2
Phil Rivers	104.8	|||	Ben Roethlisberger	100.5
Ben Roethlisberger	97.9	|||	Peyton Manning	99.9
Matt Schaub	97.8	|||	Matt Schaub	98.6
Peyton Manning	97.2	|||	Tony Romo	97.6
Donovan McNabb	96.3	|||	Tom Brady	96.2
David Garrard	96.1	|||	Kurt Warner	93.2
Kyle Orton	94.7	|||	Eli Manning	93.1
Brad Gradkowski	94.4	|||	Donovan McNabb	92.9
Tom Brady	93.8	|||	Joe Flacco	88.9
Kurt Warner	93.4	|||	Kyle Orton	86.8
Eli Manning	92.8	|||	Jason Campbell	86.4
Vince Young	92.1	|||	Carson Palmer	83.6
Joe Flacco	87.7	|||	David Garrard	83.5
Marc Bulger	86.7	|||	Vince Young	82.8
Jason Campbell	85.4	|||	Alex Smith	81.5
Matt Ryan	83.0	|||	Matt Ryan	80.9
Carson Palmer	81.7	|||	Brad Gradkowski	80.6
Chad Henne	80.8	|||	Jay Cutler	76.8
Alex Smith	79.7	|||	Chad Henne	75.2
Brady Quinn	78.4	|||	Matt Hasselbeck	75.1
Matt Hasselbeck	75.7	|||	Trent Edwards	73.8
Matt Cassel	75.7	|||	Marc Bulger	70.7
Kerry Collins	72.1	|||	Matt Cassel	69.9
Trent Edwards	69.9	|||	Ryan Fitzpatrick	69.7
Kyle Boller	69.1	|||	Brady Quinn	67.2
Jay Cutler	67.3	|||	Kerry Collins	65.5
Ryan Fitzpatrick	64.3	|||	Mark Sanchez	63.0
Mark Sanchez	60.9	|||	Kyle Boller	61.2
JaMarcus Russell	56.4	|||	Matt Stafford	61.0
Matt Stafford	54.1	|||	Josh Freeman	59.8
Jake Delhomme	51.5	|||	Jake Delhomme	59.4
Josh Freeman	46.4	|||	JaMarcus Russell	50.0
Derek Anderson	46.3	|||	Derek Anderson	42.1

 

Coming tomorrow: We reveal the initial NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the 2010 season and give our predictions for each division.

AFC West Preview

AFC West Preview

 

With this preview, I will reveal the PiRate Ratings for each of the four teams in the AFC West Division.  Following those ratings are the Mean Ratings and my own biased opinion (last year’s final PiRate Rating combined with how much stronger or weaker I personally think each team is compared to last season).  That will give you three different ratings for the teams.

 

When all three ratings predict the same side to win a game against the spread, then that is a playable line.  If all three ratings agree on the winner of the game, and the Las Vegas Line is single digits, then that becomes a playable game on the Money line.  The reason for not playing any double digit spreads is that the Money line odds would be too prohibitive for a double digit favorite, where just one loss could result in a losing season.  During the season, I will also supply a list of games to be played with an imaginary bank account.

 

The predicted records are not tied to the PiRate or Mean Ratings; they are strictly from my biased ratings.

 

This is a three-tiered division.  San Diego is on the top tier; Denver is on the middle tier; Oakland and Kansas City are on the bottom tier.  The Chargers should cruise to another division title and contend for a Super Bowl berth.  Denver has an outside shot at a wildcard bid.  The Raiders could win a game or two more than last year.  As for the Chiefs, they will be lucky any week they win a game this year.

 

Denver Broncos
PiRate	94.3
Mean	101.5
Biased	97.6
Run Offense	C
Pass Offense	B+
Run Defense	D
Pass Defense	B
Special Teams	F
Predicted Record	8-8

Offense: Jay Cutler should show vast improvement this year following a 2007 season in which he played with an undiagnosed case of Type 1 Diabetes.  He lost 30 pounds and lacked his usual strength.  The amount he improves will be muffled to some extent if the Broncos don’t come up with a better running game.  Neither Selvin Young nor Andre Hall strike fear in opposing run defenses.  I doubt either one can play all 16 games.  When Cutler passes, he’ll have to hope his new receivers fit better in Coach Mike Shanahan’s system than they fared with their former teams.  Darrell Jackson and Keary Colbert were disappointments last year.

 

Defense: The Broncos couldn’t stop the run last year, and they haven’t improved much to indicate they will be any better against the run this season.  Tackle Marcus Thomas is the only front four defender who is a decent run stuffer.  His mate at the other tackle, Dewayne Robertson, comes over from the Jets.  He might help with the run some, but I expect the Broncos to yield about 2,250 rushing yards this season.  The pass defense is a different story.  Denver has a decent pass rush and a rather good secondary.  Of course, teams don’t have to throw the ball all that often when they can run the ball down the Broncos’ throats. 

 

Special Teams: This is the worst unit in the NFL.  To start with, Jason Elam left via free agency.  The new kicker, Matt Prater, is no Elam.  Punter Brett Kern is an untested rookie.  Rookie Eddie Royal will handle the return duties.  There just isn’t any experience in the special teams, and that is a concern.  The Broncos could lose a game or two because of this inexperience.

 

Summary: Denver might score 50 more points in 2008 than they did in 2007, but they Broncos could easily give up 50 more points.  I have a hunch that this will be Shanahan’s last season in Denver.  The Broncos last made the playoffs in 2005, and they won’t be going this year with a shoddy run defense and special teams.

 

Kansas City Chiefs
PiRate	91.9
Mean	97.2
Biased	93.3
Run Offense	B-
Pass Offense	C-
Run Defense	C-
Pass Defense	C-
Special Teams	D
Predicted Record	2-14

Offense: Any chance for Kansas City to have a successful offense this year rests in the legs of Larry Johnson.  Johnson missed half of 2007 and rushed for just 559 yards last year.  Quarterback Brodie Croyle registered a 69.9 passer rating last year, and it’s debatable whether he’ll develop into the player scouts believed he could be.  It doesn’t help that he has a mediocre set of receivers to catch his passes.  Dwayne Bowe could become a 1,000 yard receiver, but he isn’t going to win many games with his catches.  The offensive line is one of the weakest, if not the weakest, in the NFL.

 

Defense: Kansas City’s defense was rather decent last year, but it’s going to head south this year; the weaker offense is going to force the stop troops to stay on the field much longer as well.  Losing Jared Allen makes the pass rush go from being a plus to a minus.  Allen led the NFL with 15½ sacks, but he is now a Viking.  With a weaker pass rush, the secondary will give up at least 30 and maybe as much as 70 more passing yards this year.  It’s going to get ugly at Arrowhead Stadium.

 

Special Teams: As weak as the offense and defense are, special teams are even worse.  Kicker Nick Novak isn’t going to win games with his leg, and he is a candidate for getting cut during the season.  Punter Dustin Colquitt may lead the league in total number of punts, but his net average is going to drop due to punt coverage weaknesses.  B.J. Sams gets first crack as the return specialist.  He was decent with the Ravens last year.

 

Summary: This is the start of a long rebuilding project in Kansas City this year.  The Chiefs only won four times last year, and they don’t have as much talent this year.  They should contend with their cross-state rivals for the first pick in the 2009 draft.  It could give them the rights to Tim Tebow or Jim Laurinaitis.

 

Oakland Raiders
PiRate	94.3
Mean	91.6
Biased	94.3
Run Offense	A-
Pass Offense	C
Run Defense	C+
Pass Defense	B+
Special Teams	C+
Predicted Record	6-10

Offense: Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden, and Michael Bush make up a terrific trio of running backs.  Fullback Justin Griffith is one of the better run blockers, and he can catch the ball coming out of the backfield.  JaMarcus Russell will take his lumps in his first full season under center, but he will have some games where he shows he belongs here.  The once excellent pass catchers are no longer wearing the silver and black.  Javon Walker is not the speedster he once was, and injuries will limit his ability to play every down.

 

Defense: Head coach Lane Kiffin planned on firing defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, but owner Al Davis stepped in and prohibited the action.  Now, there is speculation that Kiffin could be the former Raider head coach as early as the end of September if the team begins the year poorly.  Kiffin knew what he was getting into when he agreed to coach this laughingstock franchise.  The Raiders have a problem stopping the run, and that’s not a good thing when you must play San Diego and Kansas City twice each.  With a little better pass rush, the Raiders could have a fairly good defense against the pass.  Losing Warren Sapp to retirement will be tough, but Oakland brings in two new secondary starters in DeAngelo Hall and Gibril Wilson.  Hall and Wilson improve the back line and give the Raiders a chance to hold the opposition well under 200 passing yards per game.

 

Special Teams: The two Oakland kickers probably have the strongest combined leg strength of any unit in the NFL.  Punter Shane Lechler almost averaged 50 yards per boot last year, but he outkicked his coverage many times.  Kicker Sebastian Janikowski reaches the end zone with his kickoffs more than any other kicker in the league, but he doesn’t have the best accuracy, and that hurts the Raiders in field goal situations.  The return game stunk last year and will have new players manning those spots this year.

 

Summary:  Al Davis meddles with his team more than George Steinbrenner meddled with the Yankees.  While Davis actually used to coach the Raiders, this is neither a healthy atmosphere nor a winning one.  Oakland will struggle once again but should play a little better than last season.  Look for a game or two improvement. Whether that’s enough to save Kiffin’s job is up for debate.

 

San Diego Chargers
PiRate	108.1
Mean	106.1
Biased	103.1
Run Offense	A+
Pass Offense	B+
Run Defense	A-
Pass Defense	B+
Special Teams	B+
Predicted Record	12-4

Offense: The only thing keeping LaDainian Tomlinson from being a perennial 2,000 yard rusher is a passing game that is too strong to give LT enough carries.  It is a nice predicament to have.  Quarterback Phillip Rivers earned the respect of the football world last year when he played on a torn ACL.  Whether he can return to form following another injury is the key to the season.  If Rivers is healthy enough to pass for more than 3,000 yards again, then the Bolts could still be playing in February this season.  Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson, and Antonio Gates make a first-rate receiving corps, and they will force defenses not to jam the box.  That will allow LT to break a bevy of long runs.

 

Defense: The Chargers have allowed less than 20 points per game each of the last four years, and there’s no reason to think they won’t do so once again.  With an offense that should average about 26 points per game, the defense will allow Coach Norv Turner to sleep easily at night.  The strength of the stop side is an excellent secondary corps.  Cornerbacks Antonio Cromartie and Quentin Jammer rank up near the top in the NFL.  Safety Eric Weddle has Pro Bowl potential.  Helping this unit is a brilliant pass rush.  Outside linebacker Shawn Merriman is a pass rushing beast, but he begins the season not 100% healthy.  Once he’s back to normal, expect the Chargers to make life miserable for enemy passers.  Shaun Phillips on the opposite side of Merriman could record double digit sacks this year, so it’s not a one-man show. 

 

Special Teams: Nate Kaeding played last year with a ligament injury in his non-kicking leg, yet the kicker had a rather good year.  Expect better numbers from him this year.  Punter Mike Scifres isn’t far behind Lechler at Oakland.  Return specialist Darren Sproles scored on both a kick and punt return last year.  This is a strong unit.

 

Summary: I expect San Diego to win seven of their eight intradivisional games, and that should be good enough for the Chargers to win this division by at least four games and possibly as much as six games.  The pieces are there for San Diego to go all the way.