The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 29, 2015

2015 AFC West Preview

For Peyton Manning, this could be his final hurrah.  Might he go out the same way his boss went out in 1999?  John Elway retired following a Super Bowl win.  The Broncos window for winning is closing fast, and this will probably be Manning’s last chance to earn a second ring.  Denver made a lot of changes after their early playoff loss in 2014.  John Fox is out as coach, and Gary Kubiak is in.  Wade Phillips, the nomad defensive guru, is the new coordinator of a defense that was tough against the run but so-so against the pass.  Seven starters are gone, most notably tight end Julius Thomas.  Denver is still the favorite in the West, but their edge is razor slim over the Chiefs and Chargers.

Kansas City almost made the playoffs last year without a wide receiver catching a touchdown pass, and with their top defensive player leaving the team after a cancer diagnosis.  The Chiefs have the potential to be better this year, perhaps even better than they were in 2013, and there will be touchdown receptions from wide receivers this year.  Jeremy Maclin, the team’s key signee, should get several.  The defense will continue to be strong, and the Chiefs are within striking distance of overtaking their rivals to the west.

Oakland went through growing pains with a rookie quarterback last year, and the Raiders suffered through a 13th consecutive season without a winning record.  This once dominant team might be in its last year in Oakland, and could once again become the Los Angeles Raiders, making the O.co Coliseum “The Ark of the Lost Raiders.”  New head coach Jack Del Rio should lead to an improved defense, and if Carr can progress as a second year player, the Raiders could be moving up.  Of course, at 3-13, there isn’t much room to move down.

San Diego, like Oakland, is in a holding pattern.  The once Los Angeles Chargers may be the future Los Angeles Chargers, and teams in this situation seldom play consistent ball all season long.  Phillip Rivers returns after speculation that he might be dealt to Tennessee (before the Titans drafted Marcus Mariota).  Rivers has a little more to play with this year, as the Chargers acquired Jacoby Jones and Stevie Johnson.  It could be an interesting season in San Diego, but chances are better than 50-50 that the bolts will fall short of the playoffs.

DENVER BRONCOS

Broncos Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Demaryius Thomas
WR Emmanuel Sanders
WR Cody Latimer
TE Owen Daniels
LT Ty Sambrailo
LG Evan Mathis
C Matt Paradis
RG Louis Vasquez
RT Ryan Harris
QB Peyton Manning
HB C. J. Anderson
FB James Casey
   
Defense
DE Derek Wolfe/Vance Walker
DT Sylvester Williams
DE Malik Jackson
LB Von Miller
LB Brandon Marshall
LB Danny Trevathan
LB DeMarcus Ware
CB Aqib Talib
S T. J. Ward
S Darian Stewart
CB Chris Harris, Jr.
N5 Bradley Roby
   
Special
Kicker Brandon McManus
Punter Britton Colquitt
KR Omar Bolden
PR Omar Bolden
Denver Broncos
Head Coach Gary Kubiak
Off. Coordinator Rick Dennison
Def. Coordinator Wade Phillips
2014 W-L-T 12-4-0
Pts 30.1
Opp 22.1
   
Ratings  
PiRate 105.6
Mean 104.8
Bias 105.0
Average 105.1
   
Grades  
Running C+
Passing A
Vs. Run B
Vs. Pass A-
Special Teams C-
Coaching + Intangibles C
   
Predicted W-L 10-6-0
Division Rank 1
Conference Rank 3
Overall Rank 6
Postseason Yes

 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Chiefs Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Jeremy Maclin
WR Albert Wilson
TE Travis Kelce
TE James O’Shaughnessy
LT Eric Fisher
LG Ben Grubbs
C Mitch Morse
RG Jeff Allen
RT Donald Stephenson
QB Alex Smith
HB Jamaal Charles
FB Anthony Sherman
   
Defense
DE Mike Devito
NT Jaye Howard/Dontari Poe
DE Allen Bailey
LB Justin Houston
LB Josh Mauga
LB Derrick Johnson
LB Tamba Hali
CB Phillip Gaines
S Ron Parker
S Eric Berry
CB Seam Smith/Jamell Fleming
N5 Husain Abdullah
   
Special
Kicker Cairo Santos
Punter Dustin Colquitt
KR Knile Davis
PR De’Anthony Thomas
Kansas City Chiefs
Head Coach Andy Reid
Off. Coordinator Doug Pederson
Def. Coordinator Bob Sutton
2014 W-L-T 9-7-0
Pts 22.1
Opp 17.6
   
Ratings  
PiRate 100.2
Mean 102.2
Bias 100.2
Average 100.9
   
Grades  
Running B+
Passing C
Vs. Run B-
Vs. Pass B-
Special Teams A
Coaching + Intangibles A-
   
Predicted W-L 8-8-0
Division Rank 3
Conference Rank 8
Overall Rank 14
Postseason No

 

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Raiders Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Michael Crabtree
WR Amari Cooper
TE Mychal Rivera
TE Lee Smith
LT Donald Penn
LG Gabe Jackson
C Rodney Hudson
RG J’Marcus Webb
RT Menelik Watson
QB Derek Carr
HB Latavius Murray
FB Marcel Reece
   
Defense
DE Khalil Mack
DT Dan Williams
DT Justin Ellis
DE Justin Tuck
LB Ray Ray Armstrong
LB Curtis Lofton
LB Malcolm Smith
CB D. J. Hayden
S Charles Woodson
S Nate Allen
CB T. J. Carrie
N5  
   
Special
Kicker Sebastian Janikowski
Punter Marquette King
KR Trindon Holliday
PR Trindon Holliday
Oakland Raiders
Head Coach Jack Del Rio
Off. Coordinator Bill Musgrave
Def. Coordinator Ken Norton, Jr.
2014 W-L-T 3-13-0
Pts 15.8
Opp 28.3
   
Ratings  
PiRate 90.1
Mean 95.7
Bias 87.9
Average 91.2
   
Grades  
Running C
Passing B-
Vs. Run C
Vs. Pass D
Special Teams C-
Coaching + Intangibles C
   
Predicted W-L 4-12-0
Division Rank 4
Conference Rank 15
Overall Rank 31
Postseason No

 

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Chargers Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Keenan Allen
WR Malcolm Floyd
WR Stevie Johnson
TE Antonio Gates/Ladarius Green
LT King Dunlap
LG Orlando Franklin
C Chris Watt
RG D. J. Fluker
RT Joe Barksdale
QB Phillip Rivers
HB Melvin Gordon
FB (NONE)
   
Defense
DE Kendall Reyes
NT Sean Lissemore
DT Corey Liuget
LB Jerry Attaochu
LB Manti Te’O
LB Donald Butler
LB Melvin Ingram
CB Brandon Flowers
S Jahleel Addae
S Eric Weddle
CB Jason Verrett
N5 Jimmy Wilson
   
Special
Kicker Nick Novak
Punter Mike Scifres
KR Jacoby Jones
PR Jacoby Jones
San Diego Chargers
Head Coach Mike McCoy
Off. Coordinator Frank Reich
Def. Coordinator John Pagano
2014 W-L-T 9-7-0
Pts 21.8
Opp 21.8
   
Ratings  
PiRate 100.8
Mean 101.7
Bias 100.1
Average 100.9
   
Grades  
Running C+
Passing A-
Vs. Run C
Vs. Pass C+
Special Teams B+
Coaching + Intangibles C
   
Predicted W-L 9-7-0
Division Rank 2
Conference Rank 7
Overall Rank 13
Postseason No

 

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November 26, 2013

PiRate Ratings: NFL–November 28-December 2, 2013

The Division & Wildcard Races

NFC East: It is now a two-team race between Dallas and Philadelphia with the Giants and Redskins falling back out of the race.  Both teams have three home games remaining, but the important Week 17 game between the two rivals takes place at Cowboys Stadium.  This week, we favor Dallas to edge the Eagles out, and we do not project the Eagles to get in as a wildcard.

 

NFC North: Mediocrity has set in with the loss of two starting quarterbacks.  Aaron Rodgers is worth about 10-13 points per game, and his loss has turned the Packers into a poor team.  Matt Flynn is an improvement over Scott Tolzien, but the Packers will not get their star back until Week 14, by which time Green Bay could be 5-6-1 and 1 ½ games behind Detroit and possibly Chicago.  We believe that the Bears and Lions might both finish 9-7, so Rodgers would have to lead the Packers to four consecutive wins when he returns.  The Rodgers of December 8 will not be the Rodgers of September 8, and we believe the division race will be decided in Week 15 and Week 16.  In Week 15, Chicago plays at Cleveland and Detroit hosts Baltimore.  The following week, Chicago plays at Philadelphia, and Detroit hosts the Giants.  We favor Detroit by a tiny edge this week.

 

NFC South: Short of a collapse, Carolina will secure the number 5 seed with the first wildcard, while New Orleans will earn the number two seed and host a divisional round playoff game.  Or, it could be the other way around, since the two hot teams have yet to face off this season.  We believe the Saints will hold onto the two-game edge.  This week could very well be a preview of the NFC Championship Game, as New Orleans goes to Seattle on Monday Night Football.  New Orleans does have an incredibly tough December with three road games against teams with a combined 23-10 record as well as Carolina at home.

 

NFC West:  Seattle should secure home field advantage through the Conference Championship Game.  The Seahawks host the Saints this week and follow that up with a road trip to San Francisco.  At worst, if they lose both games, they should still finish 13-3.  The 49ers and Cardinals are the top two competitors for the sixth and final playoff spot.  The two square off in Phoenix in Week 17, but we believe that San Francisco will have clinched the wildcard bid before that game.  The 49ers have a schedule advantage for the next four weeks with three home games, while Arizona has three road games in the next four weeks.

 

AFC East: It is now safe to write New England’s name in ink as the official AFC East Champion.  With a three game lead against mediocre opposition, there is no chance that the Patriots will miss out on the playoffs.  A possible 12-4 record should earn the Pats a Divisional Round home game and first round bye.  The Dolphins, Bills, and Jets are all within one game of the final wildcard spot, but we do not like any of the trio’s chances.  Miami and the Jets have serious problems and appear to be heading to valleys.  Buffalo could pass both and finish in 2nd place with a 7-9 record.

 

AFC North: Cincinnati is vulnerable here.  The Bengals are not a complete team.  They are inconsistent on both sides of the ball, but the real reason is that some opponents can exploit their weaknesses, while others cannot.  What is left on their schedule?  Four teams capable of exploiting their weaknesses.  A 2-3 finish is quite possible, which would send the Bengals to a 9-7 record.  It should still be enough to win the division, but the Ravens and Steelers are both capable of finishing 9-7 as well.  Thursday night’s Baltimore-Pittsburgh game at M&T Bank Stadium will leave one of the rivals at 6-6 with an excellent chance to go 3-1 down the stretch.

 

AFC South: Indianapolis is much like Cincinnati, except the Colts are even more vulnerable to teams that have superb passing quarterbacks.  Still, the rest of this league is weaker than the three weaker AFC East teams.  At worst, the Colts will falter to finish 10-6, and that will win this league by two to four games.  Tennessee is the technical number six team as of this week, but the Titans’ next two games are on the road against Indianapolis and Denver, which will send them to a 5-8 record with three to play.  The last wildcard spot will go to a 9-7 team.

 

AFC West: The race has gotten a little interesting.  Peyton Manning once again proved his inability to play in cold weather.  The Broncos covered for him in the first half with the defense scoring or setting up the scores, but Manning had one of his poorest performances in a Broncos’ uniform.  Kansas City’s once stellar defense has been picked apart in successive weeks by division rivals.  Still, the Chiefs need only win one more game to wrap up a wildcard bid.  San Diego is the 5-6 team with the overall best chance to finish 9-7.  Phillip Rivers has seen his career resurrected with Coach Mike McCoy and offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt present.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Dallas Cowboys

100.6

101.9

100.4

Philadelphia Eagles

98.9

100.1

99.2

New York Giants

96.3

96.1

95.5

Washington Redskins

95.0

95.0

94.7

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Chicago Bears

100.5

100.2

99.9

Detroit Lions

99.9

100.3

99.8

Green Bay Packers

98.2

97.0

97.1

Minnesota Vikings

94.6

94.0

93.8

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New Orleans Saints

107.8

109.2

108.7

Carolina Panthers

106.1

106.4

106.7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

97.3

97.1

97.4

Atlanta Falcons

94.8

94.0

93.8

 

 

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

San Francisco 49ers

110.1

110.8

110.6

Seattle Seahawks

107.6

107.6

107.8

Arizona Cardinals

100.9

102.2

101.5

St. Louis Rams

100.8

101.6

101.3

       

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New England Patriots

106.6

104.9

106.9

Miami Dolphins

98.6

98.3

98.9

Buffalo Bills

97.5

96.6

97.5

New York Jets

93.0

91.3

92.7

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Cincinnati Bengals

106.3

106.2

106.4

Baltimore Ravens

102.8

102.4

102.9

Pittsburgh Steelers

99.6

99.6

100.0

Cleveland Browns

95.8

95.5

95.4

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Indianapolis Colts

100.6

100.7

100.7

Tennessee Titans

98.0

98.1

98.2

Houston Texans

95.2

94.5

95.1

Jacksonville Jaguars

88.8

88.5

88.5

       
West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Denver Broncos

110.6

110.9

111.0

Kansas City Chiefs

102.3

103.7

102.7

San Diego Chargers

101.3

101.9

101.2

Oakland Raiders

93.6

93.4

93.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Detroit Green Bay

4.2

5.8

5.2

Dallas Oakland

10.0

11.5

9.7

Baltimore Pittsburgh

5.7

5.3

5.4

Carolina Tampa Bay

11.3

11.8

11.8

Cleveland Jacksonville

10.0

10.0

9.9

Indianapolis Tennessee

6.3

6.6

6.3

Kansas City Denver

-5.3

-4.2

-5.3

Minnesota Chicago

-3.4

-3.7

-3.6

N Y Jets Miami

-2.6

-4.0

-3.2

Philadelphia Arizona

1.5

1.4

1.2

Buffalo (@ Toronto) Atlanta

4.2

4.1

5.2

San Francisco St. Louis

12.3

12.2

12.3

Houston New England

-8.4

-7.4

-8.8

San Diego Cincinnati

-2.0

-1.3

-2.2

Washington N Y Giants

1.2

1.4

1.7

Seattle New Orleans

2.8

1.4

2.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Playoff Projections

A F C

1. Denver

2. New England

3. Indianapolis

4. Cincinnati

5. Kansas City

6. San Diego

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. New Orleans

3. Dallas

4. Detroit

5. Carolina

6. San Francisco

 

Wildcard Round

San Diego over Indianapolis

Kansas City over Cincinnati

San Francisco over Dallas

Carolina over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

Denver over San Diego

Kansas City over New England

Seattle over San Francisco

New Orleans over Carolina

 

Conference Championships

Kansas City over Denver

Seattle over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl

Seattle over Kansas City

August 25, 2013

2013 AFC West Preview

2013 A F C West Preview

The PiRate Ratings kickoff our coverage of the National Football League with our AFC West Division preview.

We have added a new wrinkle to our coverage this year.  In the past, friends of ours have asked us if we knew how to recreate the exact colors of their favorite team so that they could print those colors on their computer.  We have found this information from multiple sites in the last couple of months, and we are going to show you the RGB numbers so you can replicate those colors.  These can be used in graphics programs, but it can easily be used in MS-Word and MS-Excel.

Here are the official colors for the AFC West

West

Color

Red

Green

Blue

Denver Broncos

Navy

0

33

71

 

Orange

255

99

25

Kansas City Chiefs

Red

198

12

48

 

Gold

255

182

18

Oakland Raiders

Silver

133

136

139

 

Black

17

28

36

San Diego Chargers

Navy

0

34

68

 

Gold

255

182

18

2012 Final Standings & PiRate Ratings

AFC West PiRate Mean Biased

WLT

Pts

Opp

Denver Broncos

111.0

110.6

110.3

13-3-0

481

289

San Diego Chargers

98.4

99.1

99.5

7-9-0

350

350

Oakland Raiders

90.9

92.2

93.0

4-12-0

290

443

Kansas City Chiefs

87.6

87.8

87.9

2-14-0

211

425

 

2013 Preseason PiRate Ratings

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Denver Broncos

106.9

107.6

107.2

San Diego Chargers

97.8

98.8

98.3

Kansas City Chiefs

95.6

99.2

96.0

Oakland Raiders

90.6

89.3

90.2

Division Means

97.7

98.7

97.9

PiRate Previews

 

Team

Denver Broncos

             
Head Coach

John Fox

O-Coord.

Adam Gase

D-Coord.

Jack Del Rio

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Peyton Manning

Running Back

Ronnie Hillman

Wide Receiver

Wes Welker

Wide Receiver

Eric Decker

Wide Receiver

Demaryius Thomas

Tight End

Joel Dreessen

Left Tackle

Ryan Clady

Left Guard

Zane Beadles

Center

Manny Ramirez

Right Guard

Louis Vasquez

Right Tackle

Orlando Franklin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Derek Wolfe

Tackle

Kevin Vickerson

Nose Tackle

Terrance Knighton

Right End

Robert Ayers

Sam LB

Shaun Phillips (Von Miller after game 6)

Mike LB

Nate Irving

Will LB

Wesley Woodyard

Left CB

Champ Bailey

Right CB

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

Strong Safety

Mike Adams

Free Safety

Rahim Moore

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Matt Prater

Punter

Britton Colquitt

K-Return

Trindon Holliday

P-Return

Trindon Holliday

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

12-4

Division

1st

 

 

Team

Kansas City Chiefs

             
Head Coach

Andy Reid

O-Coord.

Doug Pederson

D-Coord.

Bob Sutton

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Alex Smith

Running Back

Jamaal Charles

Fullback

Anthony Sherman

Wide Receiver

Donnie Avery

Wide Receiver

Dwayne Bowe

Tight End

Anthony Fasano

Left Tackle

Branden Albert

Left Guard

Jeff Allen

Center

Rodney Hudson

Right Guard

Jon Asamoah

Right Tackle

Eric Fisher

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Tyson Jackson

Nose Tackle

Dontari Poe

Right End

Mike DeVito

Left OLB

Justin Houston

Left ILB

Akeem Jordan

Right ILB

Derrick Johnson

Right OLB

Tamba Hali

Left CB

Brandon Flowers

Right CB

Sean Smith

Strong Safety

Eric Berry

Free Safety

Kendrick Lewis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Ryan Succop

Punter

Dustin Colquitt

K-Return

Dexter McCluster

P-Return

Dexter McCluster

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

7-9

Division

2nd

 

 

Team

Oakland Raiders

             
Head Coach

Dennis Allen

O-Coord.

Greg Olson

D-Coord.

Jason Tarver

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Terrell Pryor/Matt Flynn

Running Back

Darren McFadden

Fullback

Marcel Reece

Wide Receiver

Denarius Moore

Wide Receiver

Rod Streater

Tight End

Richard Gordon

Left Tackle

Jared Veldheer

Left Guard

Lucas Nix

Center

Stefan Wisniewski

Right Guard

Mike Brisiel

Right Tackle

Khalif Barnes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Jason Hunter

Nose Tackle

Pat Sims

Right Tackle

Vance Walker

Right End

Lamarr Houston

Sam LB

Sio Moore

Mike LB

Nick Roach

Will LB

Kevin Burnett

Left CB

Mike Jenkins

Right CB

Tracy Porter

Strong Safety

Tyvon Branch

Free Safety

Charles Woodson

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Chris Kluwe

Punter

Sebastian Janikowski

K-Return

Jacoby Ford

P-Return

Phillip Adams

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

5-11

Division

4th

 

 

Team

San Diego Chargers

             
Head Coach

Mike McCoy

O-Coord.

Ken Whisenhunt

D-Coord.

John Pagano

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Phillip Rivers

Running Back

Ryan Matthews

Fullback

LeRon McClain

Wide Receiver

Malcom Floyd

Wide Receiver

Vincent Brown

Tight End

Antonio Gates

Left Tackle

King Dunlap

Left Guard

Chad Rinehart

Center

Nick Hardwick

Right Guard

Jeromey Clary

Right Tackle

D. J. Fluker

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Kendall Reyes

Nose Tackle

Cam Thomas

Right End

Cory Liuget

Left OLB

Jarret Johnson

Left ILB

Manti Te’o

Right ILB

Donald Butler

Right OLB

Dwight Freeney

Left CB

Derek Cox

Right CB

Shareece Wright

Strong Safety

Marcus Gilchrist

Free Safety

Eric Weddie

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Nick Novack

Punter

Mike Scifres

K-Return

Richard Goodman

P-Return

Eddie Royal

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

6-10

Division

3rd

 

September 5, 2011

The Pi-Rate NFL QB Rating

The PiRate NFL Pass Rating Formula

The National Football League has been using the same pass rating formula for multiple decades.  It uses a combination of completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns, and interceptions.  If you want to calculate it on your own, here it is:

I.     (Completion Percentage-30.0) * 0.05 +

II.    (Yards per attempt-3.0) * 0.25 +

III.   (20 * touchdowns per pass attempt) +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * interceptions per pass attempt)

If any of these four components are greater than 2.375, then cap the value at 2.375

Add these four stats together and multiple them by 16.667 to get the passer rating.  Here is an example:

In 1963, Y. A. Tittle had these stats for the New York Giants

Completions 221  Attempts 367  Yards 3145  Touchdowns 36  Interceptions 14

I.     (60.20 – 30.0) * 0.05 = 1.51  +

II.    (8.57-3.0) * 0.25 = 1.39        +

III.   (20 * .098) = 1.96                +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * .038) = 1.43    +

 Subtotal = 6.29     6.29 * 16.667 =

                     104.8

 

Once you know this formula, you can easily plug it into a spreadsheet and figure the ratings.  However, these ratings are a poor way to select the most efficient passer.

Let’s take a look at two opposing passers, Smith and Jones.

Smith completes 15 of 24 passes for 3 touchdowns with no interceptions.

Jones completes 10 of 24 passes for 0 touchdowns and 1 interception.

Smith is obviously much better, correct?  No, not correct.  It depends on several other things.  What if Jones has a lousy offensive line or receivers that drop every other pass thrown to them?  What if Smith has all day to pass with Jerry Rice-type receivers?  All these stats show us are just that—their stats.

Smith could have completed six passes to backs behind the line of scrimmage with the backs following blocking for long gains.  Jones could have threaded the needle with 30 yard passes to the deep sidelines only to have had them dropped by inept receivers.

In essence no pass-rating formula is worth a grain of salt.  Let’s look at two separate plays.  Passer A completes 13-yard pass for a touchdown.  It is a dump pass into the flat to the tailback with the tailback avoiding three defenders as he streaks into the end zone.  This one pass gets the NFL Maximum rating of 158.3.

Now, let’s look at Passer B.  His team is backed up at their own 1 yard line. He drops back and fires a bomb 55 yards through the air that comes down perfectly in the hands of his flanker.  The flanker takes off down the sideline and is knocked out just one yard from scoring.  This 98-yard pass gives Passer B a rating of 118.8!  Peyton Manning actually had a better total season rating than this a couple years ago, and even though he ranks among the best ever, he was not worth a 98-yard completion every time he threw the ball!

Can this be?  You betcha!  The rating is flawed.  Obviously the brilliantly thrown pass that travelled 55 yards past the line of scrimmage that comes down perfectly in the hands of the intended receiver should be worth a lot more than the dump pass that I could complete given two seconds protection.

Here is where the PiRate Pass Rating Formula tries to correct the incorrect values of the NFL Pass Rating Formula.

Our formula looks at just two statistics.  The first is interception percentage.  An intercepted pass is worth anywhere from 3 to 7 points for the other team on average.  We realize that all interceptions are not the same.  A poorly thrown pass into the flat at the offense’s 20-yard line hurts much more than a 3rd and 25 pass thrown 40 yards downfield and intercepted by the defense. 

The second stat is called “Air Yards Per Attempt,” or AYPA.  It is simply the passing yardage minus the yards after catch.  If Passer A completed a 51-yard pass for a touchdown, but the play consisted of a pass completed to a tailback one yard past the line of scrimmage with the back running for 50 yards, the passer gets credit for an AYPA of 1 yard (51 yard pass – 50 yards after the catch).

Here is the PiRate Pass Rating Formula:

[AYPA * 7 – (11 * Interception %) + 105] * 0.8

 

Interception percentage is figured as: (Interceptions/Attempts) *100

Anything over 100 is an excellent rating.  Over 90 means the QB is above average.  80 would be considered average; below 80 means this QB should be looking over his shoulder for a replacement to take his job.

In our passer rating, we don’t include passing percentage or touchdown passes.  Yards gained are what matters.  Three consecutive completed passes that gain a total of nine yards means 4th & 1.  Two incomplete passes followed by an 11 yard completion means 1st & 10.  Which outcome is better?

Touchdowns skew the ratings.  If one coach sends in passing plays at the opponents’ one yard line, while another sends his 240-pound power back to plunge over the goal, the quarterbacks will get too much credit in once instance and no credit in the other. 

Let’s take a look at the PiRate Rating in action.  First, you must be wondering where can you find AYPA?  There is an excellent website that carries this stat, so you don’t have to try to figure out the YAC for each QB.  Go to: www.advancednflstats.com

Here is a look at both ratings side-by-side from 2009:

Player

PiRate QB Rating

 

Player

Official NFL Rating

Aaron Rodgers

108.9

|||

Drew Brees

109.6

Drew Brees

107.5

|||

Brett Favre

107.2

Brett Favre

106.7

|||

Phil Rivers

104.4

Tony Romo

105.6

|||

Aaron Rodgers

103.2

Phil Rivers

104.8

|||

Ben Roethlisberger

100.5

Ben Roethlisberger

97.9

|||

Peyton Manning

99.9

Matt Schaub

97.8

|||

Matt Schaub

98.6

Peyton Manning

97.2

|||

Tony Romo

97.6

Donovan McNabb

96.3

|||

Tom Brady

96.2

David Garrard

96.1

|||

Kurt Warner

93.2

Kyle Orton

94.7

|||

Eli Manning

93.1

Brad Gradkowski

94.4

|||

Donovan McNabb

92.9

Tom Brady

93.8

|||

Joe Flacco

88.9

Kurt Warner

93.4

|||

Kyle Orton

86.8

Eli Manning

92.8

|||

Jason Campbell

86.4

Vince Young

92.1

|||

Carson Palmer

83.6

Joe Flacco

87.7

|||

David Garrard

83.5

Marc Bulger

86.7

|||

Vince Young

82.8

Jason Campbell

85.4

|||

Alex Smith

81.5

Matt Ryan

83.0

|||

Matt Ryan

80.9

Carson Palmer

81.7

|||

Brad Gradkowski

80.6

Chad Henne

80.8

|||

Jay Cutler

76.8

Alex Smith

79.7

|||

Chad Henne

75.2

Brady Quinn

78.4

|||

Matt Hasselbeck

75.1

Matt Hasselbeck

75.7

|||

Trent Edwards

73.8

Matt Cassel

75.7

|||

Marc Bulger

70.7

Kerry Collins

72.1

|||

Matt Cassel

69.9

Trent Edwards

69.9

|||

Ryan Fitzpatrick

69.7

Kyle Boller

69.1

|||

Brady Quinn

67.2

Jay Cutler

67.3

|||

Kerry Collins

65.5

Ryan Fitzpatrick

64.3

|||

Mark Sanchez

63.0

Mark Sanchez

60.9

|||

Kyle Boller

61.2

JaMarcus Russell

56.4

|||

Matt Stafford

61.0

Matt Stafford

54.1

|||

Josh Freeman

59.8

Jake Delhomme

51.5

|||

Jake Delhomme

59.4

Josh Freeman

46.4

|||

JaMarcus Russell

50.0

Derek Anderson

46.3

|||

Derek Anderson

42.1

Coming Later This Week: We reveal the initial NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the 2011 season and give our predictions for each division.

December 21, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 16–December 23-27, 2010

Merry Christmas to all of our PiRate readers.  We wanted to send all of you a gift this year, but we didn’t have enough boxes here on the PiRate Ship.

So, instead, we are going to issue a communal gift today.

2010 has been a very successful season for our picks, and our subscribers have pocketed a lot of PiRate booty thanks to a 69% record against the spread.

We realize that several readers to this blog are not subscribers and thus can only see our picks from the previous week after the fact.

For instance, we made just one selection last week.  It was a 3-game, 10-point teaser parlay, and it won.  We issued to our subscribers last week a bowl pick.  We took the three favorites (BYU, Northern Illinois, and Troy) and moved the spread by 10 points in our favor, making BYU a 2-point favorite, NIU a 9-point ‘dog, and Troy a 7-point ‘dog.  All three won outright and covered, making this a winning selection.

We are only playing one 13-point teaser this week as our official pick, but we had two good picks to select from.  We always make an odd number of selections, because if we play an even amount and win half, it is a losing proposition.

We are issuing our top choice to our subscribers, and they will receive this pick Thursday afternoon.  Today, we would like to issue our second choice pick to all of you as our gift.  We hope it is a winning one.  Additionally, we will show you a little behind our strategy.

Here it is:

We are going with a 4-game, 13-point teaser.  For those not familiar with this type of selection, you get to move the pointspreads 13 points in either direction, but you must win four different games.  If all four games win, you win the parlay.  If anything else happens, including three wins and a push, you lose.

There are two key statistics to look at when playing a 13-point teaser.  Number one, you need to let the numbers play in your favor by picking a game that might give you an extra point or two.  Let’s say a team is a ½-point underdog.  If you like the underdog to cover, then you get them at 13 ½ points.  That is not in your favor.  Winning teams often win games by 14 points.  

Now, let’s take another team that is a 4 ½-point underdog.  Adding 13 points in their favor makes them a 17 ½-point underdog.  Many games are decided by 17 points, while many fewer are decided by 18.

Another key point is to take a favorite that you feel has a great chance to win and move the spread to make them an underdog.  A 5 ½-point favorite becomes a 7 ½-point underdog.

Another great way to play teasers is to look at totals.  If the total for a game is 36 points, moving it 13 points lower and playing the OVER means you win if the final score is 14-10.

The other key statistic is to look for games where your own personal beliefs indicate you are getting extra points in the selection.  Let’s say that you believe one team is six points better than their opponent, and they are a 4 ½-point favorite.  Giving the 4 ½ points in a straight selection is much too close to your six points difference.  One simple botched field goal or one long field goal made by the weaker team would kill your selection.  However, if you move the spread by 13 points in your favor, this part of the parlay now makes your favorite an 8 ½-point underdog.  The team you think can win by six can now lose by more than a touchdown and still win this part of the parlay.

If you think two teams can play 10 times, and all 10 games will be within a narrow point range, you can even play both sides of a game.  For instance if Team A is favored by two points over Team B, and you believe that no matter which team wins, it will be by less than 10 points, you can take Team A at +11 and Team B at +15.

Here is our Christmas gift to you.

1. 13-point teaser parlay

Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina

Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington

Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland

Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis

 

Here is our reasoning for these four games.  Pittsburgh is in a must-win situation at home, and the Steelers will be mad after losing to the Jets Sunday.  Carolina won at home on Sunday and must turn around and play on Thursday night in possible snowy conditions with temperatures in the upper 20’s.  This is a perfect setup for the Steelers.  Carolina has nothing to play for in this game.  This is basically a pick when you lower the spread to a half point, as you win even if the Steelers win by one.

Jacksonville has everything to play for, while the Redskins have nothing.  Washington’s big game was last Sunday against their rival.  They will not have much left in the tank this week.  Coach Mike Shanahan has lost the respect of a handful of players, and they are not going to go all out.  The Jags lost a tough game to Indianapolis, and they must now win out to have a legitimate shot at the AFC South title.  You get six points as a bonus, but we see the Jags winning this one outright.

Baltimore is back in the race for the NFC North title.  The Steelers still hold the tiebreaker edge, but Pittsburgh has to play at Cleveland in week 17.  The Browns will be up for their rival, which means they may not be so up this week, especially after they just lost to their other big rival last week.  We believe Baltimore should win this outright, and we get 9 ½ points by taking the Ravens in this part of the parlay.  We have a slight problem with 9 ½, but we do not think Cleveland can win this by a touchdown if they play 10 times.

We love the Raiders in this West Coast game.  Indianapolis will not have the services of Austin Collie, and the Raiders will hold Peyton Manning to two TD passes.  Indy will have a hard time stopping the Raiders’ offense, and we see a high-scoring game.  Remember, Oakland is still in the AFC West race, and they finish with the Chiefs in Kansas City.  They already hold the tiebreaker over San Diego, and a win in week 17 would give them the tiebreaker over the Chiefs.  They have to win in week 16 for week 17 to matter, and then they have to hope the Chargers lose once.  We believe Oakland will win this game, but even if they lose, it should not be by more than three to seven points.

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                     
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Philadelphia 10 4 0 412 339 108.2 105.9 106.6
NY Giants 9 5 0 360 288 105.9 104.3 103.5
Dallas 5 9 0 354 396 98.7 99.2 99.8
Washington 5 9 0 268 343 93.9 96.9 95.4
Bitmap

 
                   
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Green Bay 8 6 0 333 220 108.9 107.2 105.2
Chicago 10 4 0 293 242 103.8 104.4 104.9
Detroit 4 10 0 308 329 97.3 99.7 97.8
Minnesota 5 9 0 244 314 95.1 95.9 94.2
                     
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Atlanta 12 2 0 369 261 107.7 106.1 107.2
New Orleans 10 4 0 354 270 105.9 103.8 105.2
Tampa Bay 8 6 0 280 290 98.6 98.9 100.3
Carolina 2 12 0 183 350 90.5 88.7 90.1
                     
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Francisco 5 9 0 250 314 96.6 95.3 98.0
St. Louis 6 8 0 258 295 95.2 94.9 96.4
Seattle 6 8 0 279 363 93.4 93.1 95.1
Arizona 4 10 0 255 370 88.2 90.6 88.2
                     
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
New England 12 2 0 446 303 112.8 110.6 110.9
NY Jets 10 4 0 295 259 102.8 103.3 103.8
Miami 7 7 0 239 261 100.2 100.0 99.7
Buffalo 4 10 0 273 353 98.3 98.0 97.7
                     
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Baltimore 10 4 0 324 253 106.7 105.4 106.2
Pittsburgh 10 4 0 307 220 105.2 105.4 106.5
Cleveland 5 9 0 252 271 99.6 98.3 95.0
Cincinnati 3 11 0 281 362 95.3 95.9 94.3
                     
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Indianapolis 8 6 0 381 342 101.2 102.2 101.5
Jacksonville 8 6 0 319 365 99.1 99.0 101.0
Houston 5 9 0 333 386 98.7 98.0 97.2
Tennessee 6 8 0 322 282 95.4 100.3 98.2
                     
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Diego 8 6 0 388 260 106.9 106.3 105.9
Oakland 7 7 0 353 330 99.9 99.7 101.3
Kansas City 9 5 0 322 281 99.4 100.7 99.6
Denver 3 11 0 292 415 91.0 91.8 93.2

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
       
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
PITTSBURGH Carolina 18.7 20.7 20.4 13.5 37
Dallas ARIZONA 7.5 5.6 8.6 6.5 45
MIAMI Detroit 4.9 2.3 3.9 3.5 41.5
PHILADELPHIA Minnesota 16.1 13 15.4 NL NL
JACKSONVILLE Washington 8.2 5.1 8.6 7 45.5
ST. LOUIS San Francisco 1.6 2.6 1.4 2.5 39.5
TAMPA BAY Seattle 7.2 7.8 7.2 6 44
New England BUFFALO 12.5 10.6 13.2 7.5 44
CHICAGO New York Jets 4 4.1 4.1 2.5 36
Baltimore CLEVELAND 4.1 4.1 8.2 3.5 38.5
KANSAS CITY Tennessee 8 4.4 5.4 5 42
OAKLAND Indianapolis 1.7 0.5 2.8 -3 47
Houston DENVER 4.7 3.2 1 3 48.5
GREEN BAY
New York Giants 6 5.9 4.7 NL NL
San Diego CINCINNATI 8.6 7.4 8.6 7.5 44
ATLANTA New Orleans 5.8 6.3 6 2.5 48.5

 

PiRate Playoff Projection

N F C

1. Atlanta 13-3

2. Philadelphia 12-4

3. Chicago 11-5

4. San Francisco 7-9

5. New Orleans 12-4

6. Green Bay 10-6

 

A F C

1. New England 14-2

2. Baltimore 12-4

3. San Diego 10-6

4. Jacksonville 10-6

5. New York Jets 11-5

6. Pittsburgh 11-5

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Chicago over Green Bay

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Pittsburgh over San Diego

New York Jets over Jacksonville

 

Divisional Playoff Round

Philadelphia over Chicago

Atlanta over New Orleans

 

New England over Pittsburgh

Baltimore over New York Jets

 

Conference Championships

Philadelphia over Atlanta

 

New England over Baltimore

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

PiRate QB Passer Rating 


Player Team G AYPA Int % PiRate
Tom Brady NE 14 6.8 0.89 114.2
Michael Vick PHI 11 6.6 1.52 107.6
Matt Cassel KC 13 5.8 1.31 105.0
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 10 6 1.49 104.5
Josh Freeman TB 14 5.7 1.42 103.4
Phillip Rivers SD 14 7 2.37 102.3
Vince Young TEN 9 6.2 1.92 101.8
Joe Flacco BAL 14 5.7 1.77 100.3
Kyle Orton DEN 13 5.6 1.81 99.5
Colt McCoy CLE 6 5.7 1.97 98.6
Matt Ryan ATL 14 5.2 1.76 97.6
Matt Schaub HOU 14 5.6 2.12 96.7
Aaron Rodgers GB 13 6.1 2.44 96.7
Peyton Manning IND 14 5.6 2.46 93.7
Kevin Kolb PHI 6 4.9 2.61 88.4
Mark Sanchez NYJ 14 4.6 2.55 87.3
Tony Romo DAL 6 5.7 3.29 87.0
Jason Campbell OAK 11 5.1 3.05 85.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 12 4.9 2.97 85.3
Jon Kitna DAL 9 5.4 3.36 84.7
Drew Brees NO 14 5.2 3.33 83.8
Sam Bradford STL 14 4.1 2.71 83.1
Kerry Collins TEN 8 4.5 2.97 83.1
Donovan McNabb WAS 13 4.8 3.18 82.9
Shaun Hill DET 9 4.4 3.13 81.1
Jay Cutler CHI 13 4.9 3.53 80.4
Derek Anderson ARI 12 4.1 3.06 80.0
Chad Henne MIA 13 4.7 3.48 79.7
Alex Smith SF 9 4.4 3.36 79.1
Carson Palmer CIN 14 4.4 3.46 78.2
Jimmie Clausen CAR 11 3.1 2.88 76.0
Eli Manning NYG 14 5 4.19 75.1
David Garrard JAX 13 4.6 3.96 74.9
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 13 4.3 3.86 74.1
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 6 4 4.43 67.4
Jake Delhomme CLE 5 3.3 4.70 61.1
Brett Favre MIN 13 4 5.31 59.7
Matt Moore CAR 6 2 6.99 33.7
           
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%)) + 105) *0.8
AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Yards Per Attempt – Yards After Catch
AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

December 14, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 15–December 16-20, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                     
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
NY Giants 9 4 0 329 250 107.1 105.4 105.6
Philadelphia  9 4 0 374 308 107.0 105.4 105.6
Dallas  4 9 0 321 366 99.0 99.8 99.9
Washington  5 8 0 238 310 93.6 95.8 92.6
 NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Green Bay 8 5 0 306 189 108.6 106.7 105.0
Chicago 9 4 0 253 228 101.6 101.7 103.2
Minnesota 5 8 0 230 274 97.3 98.4 97.5
Detroit 3 10 0 285 309 96.5 98.1 94.8
                     
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Atlanta 11 2 0 335 243 106.9 106.1 107.5
New Orleans 10 3 0 330 240 106.3 105.0 106.6
Tampa Bay 8 5 0 260 267 99.4 99.9 101.2
Carolina 1 12 0 164 338 90.3 88.9 89.4
                     
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Francisco 5 8 0 243 280 98.2 97.1 99.8
St. Louis 6 7 0 245 268 96.5 95.7 98.0
Seattle 6 7 0 261 329 94.2 93.7 96.5
Arizona 4 9 0 243 351 88.4 91.3 92.5
                     
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
New England 11 2 0 415 276 113.1 111.8 111.1
NY Jets 9 4 0 273 242 101.6 101.1 102.5
Miami 7 6 0 225 244 101.2 101.4 101.9
Buffalo 3 10 0 256 339 97.3 97.1 96.0
                     
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Pittsburgh 10 3 0 290 198 106.4 106.2 107.4
Baltimore 9 4 0 294 229 106.3 104.8 105.4
Cleveland 5 8 0 235 252 99.9 99.1 96.9
Cincinnati 2 11 0 262 345 95.0 95.1 93.9
                     
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Indianapolis 7 6 0 347 318 100.7 101.3 101.7
Houston 5 8 0 316 355 100.2 100.0 99.0
Jacksonville 8 5 0 295 331 99.6 99.8 101.8
Tennessee 5 8 0 291 265 93.9 97.8 93.7
                     
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Diego 7 6 0 354 253 105.3 105.9 104.2
Oakland 6 7 0 314 307 99.2 99.1 99.8
Kansas City 8 5 0 295 268 98.1 98.6 99.5
Denver 3 10 0 269 376 91.7 92.3 89.7

 

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads  
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
               
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010            
Vegas Line as of 3:00 PM EDT Tuesday            
               
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals  
SAN DIEGO San Francisco 11.1 12.8 8.4 8 1/2 44 1/2  
ST. LOUIS Kansas City 1.4 0.1 2.5 NL NL  
Houston TENNESSEE 3.3 -0.8 2.3 -1 1/2 47     
INDIANAPOLIS Jacksonville 4.1 4.5 2.9 5    48 1/2  
CAROLINA Arizona 4.9 0.6 -0.1 2 1/2 37 1/2  
Cleveland CINCINNATI 1.9 1.0 3.0 -2    40     
MIAMI Buffalo 5.9 6.3 7.9 5 1/2 41     
NEW YORK GIANTS Philadelphia 3.1 3.0 3.0 2 1/2 46     
DALLAS Washington 8.4 7.0 10.3 6    45     
TAMPA BAY Detroit 4.9 3.8 8.4 6    43     
BALTIMORE New Orleans 3.0 2.8 1.8 2    43 1/2  
Atlanta SEATTLE 8.7 8.4 7.0 6    45     
PITTSBURGH New York Jets 8.8 9.1 8.9 6    35 1/2  
OAKLAND   Denver 10.5 9.8 13.1 6 1/2 44     
NEW ENGLAND Green Bay 7.5 8.1 9.1 NL NL  
Chicago MINNESOTA 1.3 0.3 2.7 NL NL  
               
PiRate Passer # 

Player

Team G AYPA Int% PiRate #    
Tom Brady NE 13 6.9 0.94 114.4    
Michael Vick PHI 10 6.8 1.36 110.1    
Matt Cassel KC 12 5.9 1.13 107.1    
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 9 6.2 1.72 103.6    
Josh Freeman TB 13 5.6 1.54 101.8    
Vince Young TEN 9 6.2 1.92 101.8    
Phillip Rivers SD 13 6.8 2.51 100.0    
Joe Flacco BAL 13 5.7 1.86 99.6    
Kyle Orton DEN 13 5.6 1.81 99.5    
Matt Ryan ATL 13 5.3 1.68 98.9    
Matt Schaub HOU 13 5.8 2.15 97.6    
Aaron Rodgers GB 13 6.1 2.44 96.7    
Troy Smith SF 5 5.6 2.38 94.4    
Colt McCoy CLE 5 5.4 2.36 93.5    
Peyton Manning IND 13 5.6 2.63 92.2    
Jason Campbell OAK 10 5 2.54 89.6    
Kevin Kolb PHI 6 4.9 2.61 88.4    
Tony Romo DAL 6 5.7 3.29 87.0    
Mark Sanchez NYJ 13 4.6 2.72 85.8    
Sam Bradford STL 13 4.3 2.53 85.8    
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 11 4.8 2.91 85.3    
Drew Brees NO 13 5.3 3.43 83.5    
Kerry Collins TEN 7 4.3 2.81 83.4    
Donovan McNabb WAS 13 4.8 3.18 82.9    
Shaun Hill DET 9 4.4 3.13 81.1    
Jay Cutler CHI 12 4.9 3.49 80.7    
Alex Smith SF 8 4.6 3.35 80.3    
Derek Anderson ARI 12 4.1 3.06 80.0    
Jon Kitna DAL 8 5.1 3.83 78.8    
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 12 4.6 3.55 78.6    
Chad Henne MIA 12 4.7 3.63 78.4    
Carson Palmer CIN 13 4.2 3.62 75.6    
Eli Manning NYG 13 4.9 4.34 73.3    
David Garrard JAX 12 4.4 4.14 72.2    
Jimmie Clausen CAR 10 2.8 3.13 72.2    
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 6 4 4.43 67.4    
Brett Favre MIN 12 4.1 5.13 61.8    
Jake Delhomme CLE 5 3.3 4.70 61.1    
Matt Moore CAR 6 2 6.99 33.7    
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8    
   
   
                           

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (yards per attempt minus yards after catch)

AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New Orleans

2. Philadelphia

3. Chicago

4. Seattle

5. Atlanta

6. New York Giants

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Jacksonville

4. San Diego

5. Baltimore

6. New York Jets

 

Wildcard Round

Chicago over New York Giants

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Jacksonville over New York Jets

San Diego over Baltimore

 

Divisional Round

New Orleans over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Chicago

 

New England over San Diego

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

New England over Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl

New Orleans over New England

November 30, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 13–December 2-6, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                       
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Philadelphia 7 4 0 310 257 106.6 105.7 105.8 2
NY Giants 7 4 0 277 240 103.3 102.5 103.3 2
Dallas 3 8 0 256 301 96.8 98.9 99.5 2
Washington
5 6 0 215 262 96.3 97.1 96.1 3
                       
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
Green Bay 7 4 0 269 166 109.9 109.9 106.8 3
Chicago 8 3 0 222 172 103.3 103.4 104.7 4
Minnesota 4 7 0 189 239 97.1 99.0 99.6 3
Detroit 2 9 0 258 282 95.0 96.7 93.9 4
                       
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Atlanta 9 2 0 276 209 106.3 105.3 106.9 4
New Orleans 8 3 0 265 197 105.8 104.5 106.6 2
Tampa Bay 7 4 0 219 223 99.1 99.0 100.6 2
Carolina 1 10 0 140 276 92.7 90.0 90.3 2
                       
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
San Francisco 4 7 0 187 225 97.2 95.4 98.3 4
St. Louis 5 6 0 213 231 95.2 94.5 97.1 4
Seattle 5 6 0 209 275 93.9 92.5 95.3 3
Arizona 3 8 0 194 319 88.0 88.3 89.7 4
                       
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
New England 9 2 0 334 266 107.8 107.0 107.5 3
NY Jets 9 2 0 264 187 106.3 105.5 106.3 2
Miami 6 5 0 205 225 102.3 101.3 102.3 3
Buffalo 2 9 0 229 295 97.7 97.1 97.0 2
                       
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Baltimore 8 3 0 250 188 107.4 105.9 106.1 4
Pittsburgh 8 3 0 254 181 105.0 105.7 104.9 2
Cleveland 4 7 0 216 229 98.6 99.5 98.2 4
Cincinnati 2 9 0 225 288 95.0 95.5 91.3 3
                       
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Indianapolis 6 5 0 282 252 102.9 102.9 102.2 4
Houston 5 6 0 264 287 100.6 100.3 99.4 2
Tennessee 5 6 0 257 218 96.7 102.1 96.5 4
Jacksonville 6 5 0 240 294 96.6 96.5 98.4 3
                       
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
San Diego 6 5 0 310 225 106.9 106.2 104.2 4
Kansas City 7 4 0 285 231 100.2 100.2 101.1 4
Oakland 5 6 0 255 256 96.3 96.4 97.7 2
Denver 3 8 0 250 323 93.6 95.2 92.2 2

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 13: December 2-6, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
PHILADELPHIA Houston 8.0 7.4 8.4 8 1/2 51 1/2
MINNESOTA Buffalo 2.4 4.9 5.6 6    44 1/2
MIAMI Cleveland 6.7 4.8 7.1 4 1/2 42 1/2
TENNESSEE Jacksonville 4.1 9.6 2.1 NL NL
KANSAS CITY Denver 10.6 9.0 12.9 8 1/2 45 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS Washington 9.0 7.4 9.2 7    43   
Chicago DETROIT 4.3 2.7 6.8 3 1/2 44 1/2
GREEN BAY San Francisco 15.7 17.5 11.5 9 1/2 42   
New Orleans CINCINNATI 7.8 6.0 12.3 6 1/2 46 1/2
Atlanta TAMPA BAY 5.2 4.3 4.3 3    44 1/2
SAN DIEGO Oakland 14.6 13.8 10.5 12 1/2 45 1/2
SEATTLE Carolina 4.2 5.5 8.0 6    39 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS Dallas 10.1 8.0 6.7 5 1/2 47 1/2
St. Louis  

ARIZONA
3.2 2.2 3.4 3    43   
BALTIMORE Pittsburgh 6.4 4.2 5.2 3    40   
NEW ENGLAND New York Jets 4.5 4.5 4.2 3 1/2 46   

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player Team AYPA Int %  #
Michael Vick Phi 6.8 0.43 118.3
Tom Brady NE 6.5 1.12 110.5
Kyle Orton Den 6.3 1.40 107.0
Matt Cassel KC 6.0 1.24 106.7
Matt Ryan Atl 5.6 1.23 104.5
Ben Roethlisberger Pit 6.4 1.82 103.8
Phillip Rivers SD 7.0 2.39 102.1
Josh Freeman TB 5.6 1.53 101.9
Vince Young Ten 6.2 1.92 101.8
Matt Shaub Hou 5.8 1.91 99.7
Aaron Rodgers GB 6.2 2.44 97.3
Seneca Wallace Cle 5.4 2.00 96.6
Joe Flacco Bal 5.7 2.19 96.6
Peyton Manning Ind 5.6 2.26 95.5
Mark Sanchez NYJ 5.2 2.20 93.8
Colt McCoy Cle 5.4 2.36 93.5
Sam Bradford Stl 4.5 2.18 90.0
Matt Hasselebeck Sea 4.9 2.56 88.9
Kevin Kolb Phi 4.9 2.61 88.4
Tony Romo Dal 5.7 3.29 87.0
Drew Brees NO 5.4 3.29 85.3
Chad Henne Mia 5.3 3.27 84.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick Buf 4.8 3.03 84.2
Kerry Collins Ten 4.2 2.80 82.8
Jay Cutler Chi 5.0 3.42 81.9
Donovan McNabb Was 4.8 3.31 81.8
Derek Anderson Ari 4.2 2.93 81.7
Shaun Hill Det 4.4 3.13 81.1
Jason Campbell Oak 4.2 3.16 79.7
Jon Kitna Dal 5.2 4.00 77.9
Carson Palmer Cin 4.3 3.47 77.5
Eli Manning NYG 5.2 4.26 75.7
Jimmy Clausen Car 3.1 3.01 74.9
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8
David Garrard Jax 4.3 4.42 69.2
Bruce Gradkowski Oak 4.0 4.43 67.4
Brett Favre Min 4.2 4.86 64.8
Matt Moore Car 2.0 6.99 33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
 

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  This statistic removed the receivers’ Yards After Catch.

AYPA can be found at www.advancednflstats.com

Projected NFL Playoff Seedings

NFC

1. Atlanta Falcons

2. Chicago Bears

3. Philadelphia Eagles

4. St. Louis Rams

5. Green Bay Packers

6. New Orleans Saints

AFC

1. New England Patriots

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

3. San Diego Chargers

4. Indianapolis Colts

5. New York Jets

6. Baltimore Ravens

Wildcard Round

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Green Bay over St. Louis

Baltimore over San Diego

New York Jets over Indianapolis

Divisional Round

Atlanta over New Orleans

Chicago over Green Bay

Baltimore over New England

Pittsburgh over New York Jets

Conference Championships

Chicago over Atlanta

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

SUPER BOWL

Chicago over Baltimore

November 23, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 12–November 25-29, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
(listed by PiRate #)                      
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Philadelphia 7 3 0 284 226 106.9 106.2 106.0 2
NY Giants 6 4 0 253 220 104.1 102.5 103.5 2
Washington 5 5 0 202 245 97.3 98.8 99.0 3
Dallas
3 7 0 229 271 96.3 98.8 99.4 2
                       
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Green Bay 7 3 0 252 146 110.4 108.5 107.7 3
Chicago 7 3 0 191 146 103.0 102.8 102.7 4
Detroit 2 8 0 234 237 96.7 97.1 95.5 4
Minnesota 3 7 0 172 226 96.1 97.3 94.8 3
                       
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
New Orleans 7 3 0 235 170 106.3 103.8 105.4 2
Atlanta 8 2 0 256 192 105.8 105.0 106.7 4
Tampa Bay 7 3 0 209 206 98.3 99.6 101.1 2
Carolina 1 9 0 117 252 91.5 89.0 90.4 2
                       
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Seattle 5 5 0 185 233 95.4 94.9 96.0 3
St. Louis 4 6 0 177 198 94.5 94.6 95.8 4
San Francisco 3 7 0 160 219 94.2 93.9 95.6 4
Arizona 3 7 0 188 292 91.0 91.3 91.4 4
                       
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
New England 8 2 0 289 242 106.1 105.6 106.9 3
NY Jets 8 2 0 238 177 106.0 105.0 106.1 2
Miami 5 5 0 172 208 100.7 100.5 100.0 3
Buffalo 2 8 0 213 276 97.2 97.0 96.2 2
                       
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Baltimore 7 3 0 233 178 108.2 105.1 106.0 4
Pittsburgh 7 3 0 235 165 105.5 106.2 105.7 2
Cleveland 3 7 0 192 206 99.8 99.9 97.3 4
Cincinnati 2 8 0 215 262 95.3 95.8 93.2 3
                       
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Indianapolis 6 4 0 268 216 105.6 104.5 104.8 4
Tennessee 5 5 0 257 198 98.9 103.4 100.2 4
Houston 4 6 0 244 287 98.4 98.4 97.9 2
Jacksonville 6 4 0 220 270 95.8 97.6 100.8 3
                       
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
San Diego 5 5 0 274 211 104.2 103.5 103.7 4
Kansas City 6 4 0 243 207 98.7 99.8 100.6 4
Oakland 5 5 0 238 223 97.9 98.1 98.9 2
Denver 3 7 0 217 287 94.3 95.4 91.1 2
 
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 12: November 25-29, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 11:30 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
New England DETROIT 5.4 4.5 7.4 6 1/2 51   
New Orleans DALLAS 8.0 3.0 4.0 3 1/2 50   
NEW YORK JETS Cincinnati 12.7 11.2 14.9 9    43   
WASHINGTON Minnesota 4.2 4.5 7.2 1 1/2 43   
Pittsburgh BUFFALO 6.3 7.2 7.5 6 1/2 43   
HOUSTON Tennessee 1.5 -3.0 -0.3 NL NL
NEW YORK GIANTS Jacksonville 10.3 6.9 4.7 7    44 1/2
CLEVELAND Carolina 12.3 14.9 10.9 11    37 1/2
BALTIMORE Tampa Bay 13.9 9.5 8.9 7 1/2 41   
CHICAGO Philadelphia 0.1 0.6 0.7 -3    42 1/2
Green Bay ATLANTA 0.6 -0.5 -3.0 -2    47 1/2
Miami OAKLAND 0.8 0.4 -0.9 NL NL
Kansas City SEATTLE 0.3 1.9 1.6 1 1/2 44 1/2
DENVER Bitmap

St. Louis
1.8 2.8 -2.7 4    44 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS San Diego 5.4 5.0 5.1 3    52   
ARIZONA San Francisco 0.8 1.4 -0.2 Pk 40   

 

Projected NFL Playoffs

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Green Bay

3. Philadelphia

4. Seattle

5. New Orleans

6. Chicago

AFC

1. Baltimore

2. New York Jets

3. Indianapolis

4. San Diego

5. New England

6. Pittsburgh

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player Team AYPA Int% PiRate #
Michael Vick PHI 7.2 0.00 124.3
Tom Brady NE 6.1 1.22 107.5
Kyle Orton DEN 6.2 1.55 105.1
Matt Cassel KC 5.9 1.37 104.9
Matt Ryan ATL 5.6 1.33 103.7
Peyton Manning IND 5.9 1.59 103.0
Vince Young TEN 6.2 1.92 101.8
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 6.5 2.14 101.6
Phillip Rivers SD 7.0 2.55 100.8
Josh Freeman TB 5.7 1.72 100.7
Matt Schaub HOU 6.0 2.11 99.0
Joe Flacco BAL 5.7 2.12 97.3
Seneca Wallace CLE 5.4 2.00 96.6
Mark Sanchez NYJ 5.3 2.08 95.3
Colt McCoy CLE 5.4 2.36 93.5
Aaron Rodgers GB 5.8 2.69 92.8
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 4.9 2.23 91.8
Kevin Kolb PHI 4.9 2.61 88.4
Tony Romo DAL 5.7 3.29 87.0
Sam Bradford STL 4.1 2.39 85.9
Drew Brees NO 5.2 3.36 83.6
Chad Henne MIA 5.0 3.27 83.2
Shaun Hill DET 4.5 2.95 83.2
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 4.8 3.16 83.1
Kerry Collins TEN 4.2 2.80 82.8
Donovan McNabb WAS 4.9 3.35 81.9
Derek Anderson ARI 4.2 2.94 81.6
Carson Palmer CIN 4.7 3.30 81.3
Jason Campbell OAK 4.2 3.16 79.7
Jay Cutler CHI 4.7 3.69 77.8
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8
Jimmy Clausen CAR 2.8 2.90 74.2
Jon Kitna DAL 5.0 4.43 73.0
Eli Manning NYG 4.9 4.55 71.4
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 3.8 3.97 70.4
David Garrard JAX 4.7 4.67 69.2
Brett Favre MIN 4.0 5.20 60.7
Matt Moore CAR 2.0 6.99 33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It eliminates Yards After Catch and can be found at advancednflstats.com

November 16, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 11–November 18-22, 2010

Hottest Team In The League?

Quick question.  Three NFL teams have not lost a game since week six.  One of those three has outscored its opponents by 26 points per game in that time.  One has given up just one touchdown in their last two games.  The other has averaged over 30 points per game in their three-game winning streak.  Can you name these three teams?

It is no surprise that Green Bay has fared strongly in their current three-game winning streak.  The Packers were supposed to win their division and were supposed to be a top contender for the NFC representative in the Super Bowl  thanks to a powerful offense.  But, the Packers have done it with defense as of late, holding the Jets scoreless and giving up just seven to Dallas.

Atlanta has been a contender in the NFC South ever since Matt Ryan arrived.  The Falcons have scored 92 points in their three-game winning streak.

Ah, but who is this most dominating team of the trio–the one outscoring opponents by 38-12?  It’s the Oakland Raiders who all of a sudden find themselved in first place in the AFC West.  The Raiders visit Pittsburgh, and if they can beat the Steelers, they are officially back.

The Great Switch

Four games into this season, it appeared that offense was on the decline and half the league might give up less than 17 points per game.  As of late, offense has ruled.  Now half of the league could top 350 points.  This is just another part of this fascinating season in which no team appears to be dominant.  Look for 20 teams to challenge for the 12 playoff spots.  It would not surprise us to see three or more spots up for grabs in week 17.

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
(listed alphabetically by division)                      
                       
Bitmap

NFC East
Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Philadelphia 6 3 0 257 209 106.2 104.8 105.0 2
NY Giants 6 3 0 236 193 104.8 102.8 104.3 2
Washington 4 5 0 183 229 95.6 97.2 93.5 3
Dallas 2 7 0 194 252 93.6 97.5 98.0 2
                       
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Green Bay 6 3 0 221 143 108.1 106.5 104.5 3
Chicago 6 3 0 175 146 99.4 99.6 100.8 4
Detroit 2 7 0 215 202 98.9 99.4 97.0 4
Minnesota 3 6 0 169 195 98.4 100.0 97.6 3
                       
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
New Orleans 6 3 0 201 151 105.8 103.1 103.9 2
Atlanta 7 2 0 222 175 104.0 103.6 104.9 4
Tampa Bay 6 3 0 188 206 96.0 96.9 98.9 2
Carolina 1 8 0 104 215 92.9 90.9 90.5 2
                       
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
San Francisco 3 6 0 160 198 96.5 96.4 98.3 4
St. Louis 4 5 0 160 164 96.3 96.3 97.1 4
Seattle 5 4 0 166 199 95.9 95.8 98.1 3
Arizona 3 6 0 175 261 91.8 93.5 92.6 4
                       
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
NY Jets 7 2 0 208 150 107.1 106.0 106.6 2
New England 7 2 0 258 214 106.3 105.0 106.8 3
Miami 5 4 0 172 192 102.8 102.2 102.0 3
Buffalo 1 8 0 164 245 95.0 94.7 92.9 2
                       
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
Baltimore 6 3 0 196 165 106.8 104.8 105.1 4
Pittsburgh 6 3 0 200 162 103.2 104.1 104.2 2
Cleveland 3 6 0 172 182 101.6 100.3 100.7 4
Cincinnati 2 7 0 184 213 98.0 98.8 96.7 3
                       
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
Indianapolis 6 3 0 240 185 105.4 104.1 104.7 4
Tennessee 5 4 0 241 179 102.1 104.2 101.6 4
Houston 4 5 0 217 257 97.3 97.0 97.4 2
Jacksonville 5 4 0 196 250 94.0 95.9 98.3 3
                       
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
San Diego 4 5 0 239 197 102.6 102.2 101.9 4
Oakland 5 4 0 235 188 100.2 100.6 101.7 2
Kansas City 5 4 0 212 194 97.9 98.7 99.1 4
Denver 3 6 0 203 252 95.9 97.3 94.8 2

 

 
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 10: November 18-22, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 12:30 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
MIAMI Chicago 6.4 5.6 4.2 1 1/2 40   
PITTSBURGH Oakland 5.0 5.5 4.5 7 1/2 41   
NEW YORK JETS Houston 11.8 11.0 11.2 6 1/2 45 1/2
Baltimore CAROLINA 11.9 11.9 12.6 10    37 1/2
TENNESSEE Washington 10.5 11.0 12.1 7    44   
Detroit DALLAS 3.3 -0.1 -3.0 -6 1/2 47   
Green Bay MINNESOTA 6.7 3.3 3.9 3    44   
CINCINNATI Buffalo 6.0 7.1 6.8 5 1/2 44   
Cleveland JACKSONVILLE 4.6 1.4 -0.6 1 1/2 43   
KANSAS CITY Arizona 10.1 9.2 10.5 7 1/2 44   
NEW ORLEANS Seattle 11.9 9.3 7.8 11 1/2 44   
Atlanta ST. LOUIS 4.7 3.3 3.8 3    43   
SAN FRANCISCO Tampa Bay 4.5 3.5 3.4 3    41 1/2
NEW ENGLAND
Indianapolis
3.9 2.6 5.1 3    50 1/2
PHILADELPHIA New York Giants 3.4 4.0 2.7 3    48 1/2
SAN DIEGO Denver 10.7 8.9 11.1 10    50   
 
PiRate Passer Rating
Player Team AYPA Int% PiRate #
Michael Vick PHI 7.5 0.00 126.0
Peyton Manning IND 6.1 1.03 109.1
Kyle Orton DEN 6.6 1.43 108.4
Tom Brady NE 6 1.32 106.0
Matt Cassel KC 5.7 1.50 102.7
Phillip Rivers SD 7 2.43 101.8
Matt Ryan ATL 5.5 1.48 101.8
Josh Freeman TB 5.7 1.85 99.6
Vince Young TEN 5.8 2.14 97.6
Colt McCoy CLE 5.6 2.02 97.6
Seneca Wallace CLE 5.4 2.00 96.6
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 6.1 2.53 95.9
Matt Schaub HOU 5.8 2.34 95.9
Mark Sanchez NYJ 5.2 2.01 95.4
Joe Flacco BAL 5.5 2.36 94.1
Aaron Rodger GB 5.6 2.97 89.2
Kevin Kolb PHI 4.9 2.61 88.4
Tony Romo DAL 5.7 3.29 87.0
Sam Bradford STL 4.1 2.40 85.9
Jason Campbell OAK 4.8 2.92 85.1
Drew Brees NO 5.1 3.21 84.3
Carson Palmer CIN 4.7 3.06 83.4
Chad Henne MIA 5 3.27 83.2
Kerry Collins TEN 4.2 2.80 82.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 4.6 3.08 82.6
Donovan McNabb WAS 4.8 3.57 79.5
Shaun Hill DET 4.4 3.37 79.0
Jay Cutler CHI 4.8 3.66 78.7
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 3.7 2.97 78.6
Eli Manning NYG 5.4 4.08 78.4
David Garrard JAX 5.1 3.89 78.3
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8
Jimmy Clausen CAR 2.8 2.90 74.2
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 4.3 3.92 73.6
Derek Anderson ARI 3.7 3.87 70.7
Jon Kitna DAL 5 5.22 66.0
Brett Favre MIN 4 5.54 57.6
Matt Moore CAR 2 6.99 33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It eliminates Yards After Catch and can be found at advancednflstats.com

November 9, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 10–November 11-15, 2010

Current NFL Standings
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
NY Giants 6 2 0 216 160 108.0 105.0 108.7 2
Philadelphia 5 3 0 198 181 103.6 102.9 105.0 2
Washington 4 4 0 155 170 98.2 99.2 99.6 4
Dallas 1 7 0 161 232 90.4 94.8 90.0 3
                       
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Green Bay 6 3 0 221 143 108.1 106.5 106.7 3
Minnesota 3 5 0 156 168 99.6 100.2 96.5 3
Detroit 2 6 0 203 188 99.0 99.8 101.1 4
Chicago 5 3 0 148 133 98.2 99.3 101.4 2
                       
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
New Orleans 6 3 0 201 151 105.8 103.0 106.1 2
Atlanta 6 2 0 196 154 103.2 102.9 106.1 3
Tampa Bay 5 3 0 157 190 94.7 96.7 100.8 2
Carolina 1 7 0 88 184 94.2 90.9 91.2 2
                       
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
San Francisco 2 6 0 137 178 97.1 95.6 97.5 4
St. Louis 4 4 0 140 141 95.7 96.9 99.3 3
Arizona 3 5 0 157 225 94.3 94.6 92.5 4
Seattle 4 4 0 130 181 93.4 94.1 94.6 4
                       
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
NY Jets 6 2 0 182 130 107.3 105.4 106.9 4
New England 6 2 0 219 188 104.7 104.0 104.3 2
Miami 4 4 0 143 175 101.7 100.3 101.1 2
Buffalo 0 8 0 150 233 94.9 93.4 93.6 2
                       
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Baltimore 6 2 0 175 139 107.6 104.8 105.6 2
Pittsburgh 6 2 0 174 123 104.8 106.4 105.4 2
Cleveland 3 5 0 152 156 101.4 100.2 101.1 2
Cincinnati 2 6 0 167 190 97.5 97.9 93.2 4
                       
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Indianapolis 5 3 0 187 151 105.9 105.4 104.2 4
Tennessee 5 3 0 224 150 103.2 106.6 103.3 2
Houston 4 4 0 176 196 97.5 98.4 97.5 2
Jacksonville 4 4 0 165 226 93.8 95.2 95.5 4
                       
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
San Diego 4 5 0 239 197 102.6 102.8 100.0 4
Kansas City 5 3 0 183 145 100.3 101.4 100.5 2
Oakland 5 4 0 235 188 100.2 100.6 100.3 2
Denver 2 6 0 154 223 93.5 94.7 90.6 2

 

THIS WEEK’S PIRATE, MEAN, AND BIAS SPREADS

 

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Baltimore ATLANTA 1.4 -1.1 -3.5 -1 1/2 43   
INDIANAPOLIS Cincinnati 12.4 11.5 15.0 8    47 1/2
JACKSONVILLE Houston 0.3 0.8 2.0 2    50   
MIAMI Tennessee 0.5 -4.3 -0.1 -1    42 1/2
CHICAGO Minnesota 0.6 1.1 6.9 -1    40 1/2
Detroit BUFFALO 2.1 4.4 5.5 -3    42 1/2
New York Jets CLEVELAND 3.9 3.2 3.8 3    37   
TAMPA BAY Carolina 2.5 7.8 11.6 7    35 1/2
Kansas City DENVER 4.8 4.7 7.9 1    42   
SAN FRANCISCO St. Louis 5.4 2.7 2.2 6    38 1/2
ARIZONA Seattle 4.9 4.5 1.9 3    41   
NEW YORK GIANTS Dallas 19.6 12.2 20.7 14    45   
PITTSBURGH New England 2.1 4.4 3.1 4 1/2 45   
Philadelphia WASHINGTON 1.4 -0.3 1.4 3 42   

 

PIRATE QUARTERBACK PASSER FORMULA

 

Player Team AYPA Int% PiRate #  
Michael Vick PHI 6.7 0.00 121.5  
Peyton Manning IND 6.2 1.14 108.7  
Vince Young TEN 6.5 1.64 106.0  
Kyle Orton DEN 6.4 1.58 105.9  
Tom Brady NE 5.7 1.53 102.4  
Phillip Rivers SD 7.0 2.43 101.8  
Matt Ryan ATL 5.5 1.74 99.5  
Matt Cassel KC 5.2 1.87 96.7  
Seneca Wallace CLE 5.4 2.00 96.6  
Mark San chez NYJ 5.2 1.97 95.8  
Josh Freeman TB 5.3 2.03 95.8  
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 6.4 2.75 95.6  
Joe Flacco BAL 5.6 2.28 95.3  
Matt Schaub HOU 5.4 2.62 91.2  
Carson Palmer CIN 4.9 2.52 89.3  
Aaron Rodgers GB 5.6 2.97 89.2  
Kevin Kolb PHI 4.9 2.61 88.4  
Tony Romo DAL 5.7 3.29 87.0  
Donovan McNabb WAS 4.9 2.89 86.0  
Jason Campbell OAK 4.8 2.92 85.1  
Drew Brees NO 5.1 3.21 84.3  
Chad Henne MIA 4.9 3.24 83.0  
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 4.6 3.08 82.6  
Jay Cutler CHI 4.9 3.32 82.2  
Sam Bradford STL 3.9 2.74 81.7  
Kerry Collins TEN 4.6 3.45 79.4  
Shaun Hill DET 4.4 3.37 79.0  
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 3.7 2.97 78.6  
Eli Manning NYG 5.3 4.06 78.0  
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8  
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 4.3 3.92 73.6  
Derek Anderson ARI 3.7 3.87 70.7  
David Garrard JAX 4.2 4.70 66.2  
Brett Favre MIN 4.3 5.04 63.7  
Jimmy Clausen CAR 2.0 3.67 62.9  
Jon Kitna DAL 3.6 5.36 57.0  
Trent Edwards JAX 1.4 5.26 45.5  
Matt Moore CAR 2.0 6.99 33.7  
           
Formula: [((7* Air Yards Per Attempt [eliminates YAC]) – (11* Int.%)) +105] * 0.8  
 
 
AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com  

 

 

Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New York Giants              12-4

2. Atlanta Falcons                 12-4

3. Green Bay Packers           10-6

4. Seattle Seahawks                 8-8

5. New Orleans Saints           11-5

6. Philadelphia Eagles           11-5

 

A F C

1. Pittsburgh Steelers            13-3

2. New York Jets                   12-4

3. Indianapolis Colts             10-6

4. Kansas City Chiefs            10-6

5. Baltimore Ravens              12-4

6. New England Patriots       11-5

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