2015 AFC West Preview

For Peyton Manning, this could be his final hurrah.  Might he go out the same way his boss went out in 1999?  John Elway retired following a Super Bowl win.  The Broncos window for winning is closing fast, and this will probably be Manning’s last chance to earn a second ring.  Denver made a lot of changes after their early playoff loss in 2014.  John Fox is out as coach, and Gary Kubiak is in.  Wade Phillips, the nomad defensive guru, is the new coordinator of a defense that was tough against the run but so-so against the pass.  Seven starters are gone, most notably tight end Julius Thomas.  Denver is still the favorite in the West, but their edge is razor slim over the Chiefs and Chargers.

Kansas City almost made the playoffs last year without a wide receiver catching a touchdown pass, and with their top defensive player leaving the team after a cancer diagnosis.  The Chiefs have the potential to be better this year, perhaps even better than they were in 2013, and there will be touchdown receptions from wide receivers this year.  Jeremy Maclin, the team’s key signee, should get several.  The defense will continue to be strong, and the Chiefs are within striking distance of overtaking their rivals to the west.

Oakland went through growing pains with a rookie quarterback last year, and the Raiders suffered through a 13th consecutive season without a winning record.  This once dominant team might be in its last year in Oakland, and could once again become the Los Angeles Raiders, making the O.co Coliseum “The Ark of the Lost Raiders.”  New head coach Jack Del Rio should lead to an improved defense, and if Carr can progress as a second year player, the Raiders could be moving up.  Of course, at 3-13, there isn’t much room to move down.

San Diego, like Oakland, is in a holding pattern.  The once Los Angeles Chargers may be the future Los Angeles Chargers, and teams in this situation seldom play consistent ball all season long.  Phillip Rivers returns after speculation that he might be dealt to Tennessee (before the Titans drafted Marcus Mariota).  Rivers has a little more to play with this year, as the Chargers acquired Jacoby Jones and Stevie Johnson.  It could be an interesting season in San Diego, but chances are better than 50-50 that the bolts will fall short of the playoffs.

DENVER BRONCOS

Broncos Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Demaryius Thomas
WR	Emmanuel Sanders
WR	Cody Latimer
TE	Owen Daniels
LT	Ty Sambrailo
LG	Evan Mathis
C	Matt Paradis
RG	Louis Vasquez
RT	Ryan Harris
QB	Peyton Manning
HB	C. J. Anderson
FB	James Casey
Defense
DE	Derek Wolfe/Vance Walker
DT	Sylvester Williams
DE	Malik Jackson
LB	Von Miller
LB	Brandon Marshall
LB	Danny Trevathan
LB	DeMarcus Ware
CB	Aqib Talib
S	T. J. Ward
S	Darian Stewart
CB	Chris Harris, Jr.
N5	Bradley Roby
Special
Kicker	Brandon McManus
Punter	Britton Colquitt
KR	Omar Bolden
PR	Omar Bolden

Denver Broncos
Head Coach	Gary Kubiak
Off. Coordinator	Rick Dennison
Def. Coordinator	Wade Phillips
2014 W-L-T	12-4-0
Pts	30.1
Opp	22.1
Ratings
PiRate	105.6
Mean	104.8
Bias	105.0
Average	105.1
Grades
Running	C+
Passing	A
Vs. Run	B
Vs. Pass	A-
Special Teams	C-
Coaching + Intangibles	C
Predicted W-L	10-6-0
Division Rank	1
Conference Rank	3
Overall Rank	6
Postseason	Yes

 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Chiefs Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Jeremy Maclin
WR	Albert Wilson
TE	Travis Kelce
TE	James O’Shaughnessy
LT	Eric Fisher
LG	Ben Grubbs
C	Mitch Morse
RG	Jeff Allen
RT	Donald Stephenson
QB	Alex Smith
HB	Jamaal Charles
FB	Anthony Sherman
Defense
DE	Mike Devito
NT	Jaye Howard/Dontari Poe
DE	Allen Bailey
LB	Justin Houston
LB	Josh Mauga
LB	Derrick Johnson
LB	Tamba Hali
CB	Phillip Gaines
S	Ron Parker
S	Eric Berry
CB	Seam Smith/Jamell Fleming
N5	Husain Abdullah
Special
Kicker	Cairo Santos
Punter	Dustin Colquitt
KR	Knile Davis
PR	De’Anthony Thomas

Kansas City Chiefs
Head Coach	Andy Reid
Off. Coordinator	Doug Pederson
Def. Coordinator	Bob Sutton
2014 W-L-T	9-7-0
Pts	22.1
Opp	17.6
Ratings
PiRate	100.2
Mean	102.2
Bias	100.2
Average	100.9
Grades
Running	B+
Passing	C
Vs. Run	B-
Vs. Pass	B-
Special Teams	A
Coaching + Intangibles	A-
Predicted W-L	8-8-0
Division Rank	3
Conference Rank	8
Overall Rank	14
Postseason	No

 

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Raiders Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Michael Crabtree
WR	Amari Cooper
TE	Mychal Rivera
TE	Lee Smith
LT	Donald Penn
LG	Gabe Jackson
C	Rodney Hudson
RG	J’Marcus Webb
RT	Menelik Watson
QB	Derek Carr
HB	Latavius Murray
FB	Marcel Reece
Defense
DE	Khalil Mack
DT	Dan Williams
DT	Justin Ellis
DE	Justin Tuck
LB	Ray Ray Armstrong
LB	Curtis Lofton
LB	Malcolm Smith
CB	D. J. Hayden
S	Charles Woodson
S	Nate Allen
CB	T. J. Carrie
N5
Special
Kicker	Sebastian Janikowski
Punter	Marquette King
KR	Trindon Holliday
PR	Trindon Holliday

Oakland Raiders
Head Coach	Jack Del Rio
Off. Coordinator	Bill Musgrave
Def. Coordinator	Ken Norton, Jr.
2014 W-L-T	3-13-0
Pts	15.8
Opp	28.3
Ratings
PiRate	90.1
Mean	95.7
Bias	87.9
Average	91.2
Grades
Running	C
Passing	B-
Vs. Run	C
Vs. Pass	D
Special Teams	C-
Coaching + Intangibles	C
Predicted W-L	4-12-0
Division Rank	4
Conference Rank	15
Overall Rank	31
Postseason	No

 

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Chargers Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Keenan Allen
WR	Malcolm Floyd
WR	Stevie Johnson
TE	Antonio Gates/Ladarius Green
LT	King Dunlap
LG	Orlando Franklin
C	Chris Watt
RG	D. J. Fluker
RT	Joe Barksdale
QB	Phillip Rivers
HB	Melvin Gordon
FB	(NONE)
Defense
DE	Kendall Reyes
NT	Sean Lissemore
DT	Corey Liuget
LB	Jerry Attaochu
LB	Manti Te’O
LB	Donald Butler
LB	Melvin Ingram
CB	Brandon Flowers
S	Jahleel Addae
S	Eric Weddle
CB	Jason Verrett
N5	Jimmy Wilson
Special
Kicker	Nick Novak
Punter	Mike Scifres
KR	Jacoby Jones
PR	Jacoby Jones

San Diego Chargers
Head Coach	Mike McCoy
Off. Coordinator	Frank Reich
Def. Coordinator	John Pagano
2014 W-L-T	9-7-0
Pts	21.8
Opp	21.8
Ratings
PiRate	100.8
Mean	101.7
Bias	100.1
Average	100.9
Grades
Running	C+
Passing	A-
Vs. Run	C
Vs. Pass	C+
Special Teams	B+
Coaching + Intangibles	C
Predicted W-L	9-7-0
Division Rank	2
Conference Rank	7
Overall Rank	13
Postseason	No

 

PiRate Ratings: NFL–November 28-December 2, 2013

The Division & Wildcard Races

NFC East: It is now a two-team race between Dallas and Philadelphia with the Giants and Redskins falling back out of the race.  Both teams have three home games remaining, but the important Week 17 game between the two rivals takes place at Cowboys Stadium.  This week, we favor Dallas to edge the Eagles out, and we do not project the Eagles to get in as a wildcard.

 

NFC North: Mediocrity has set in with the loss of two starting quarterbacks.  Aaron Rodgers is worth about 10-13 points per game, and his loss has turned the Packers into a poor team.  Matt Flynn is an improvement over Scott Tolzien, but the Packers will not get their star back until Week 14, by which time Green Bay could be 5-6-1 and 1 ½ games behind Detroit and possibly Chicago.  We believe that the Bears and Lions might both finish 9-7, so Rodgers would have to lead the Packers to four consecutive wins when he returns.  The Rodgers of December 8 will not be the Rodgers of September 8, and we believe the division race will be decided in Week 15 and Week 16.  In Week 15, Chicago plays at Cleveland and Detroit hosts Baltimore.  The following week, Chicago plays at Philadelphia, and Detroit hosts the Giants.  We favor Detroit by a tiny edge this week.

 

NFC South: Short of a collapse, Carolina will secure the number 5 seed with the first wildcard, while New Orleans will earn the number two seed and host a divisional round playoff game.  Or, it could be the other way around, since the two hot teams have yet to face off this season.  We believe the Saints will hold onto the two-game edge.  This week could very well be a preview of the NFC Championship Game, as New Orleans goes to Seattle on Monday Night Football.  New Orleans does have an incredibly tough December with three road games against teams with a combined 23-10 record as well as Carolina at home.

 

NFC West:  Seattle should secure home field advantage through the Conference Championship Game.  The Seahawks host the Saints this week and follow that up with a road trip to San Francisco.  At worst, if they lose both games, they should still finish 13-3.  The 49ers and Cardinals are the top two competitors for the sixth and final playoff spot.  The two square off in Phoenix in Week 17, but we believe that San Francisco will have clinched the wildcard bid before that game.  The 49ers have a schedule advantage for the next four weeks with three home games, while Arizona has three road games in the next four weeks.

 

AFC East: It is now safe to write New England’s name in ink as the official AFC East Champion.  With a three game lead against mediocre opposition, there is no chance that the Patriots will miss out on the playoffs.  A possible 12-4 record should earn the Pats a Divisional Round home game and first round bye.  The Dolphins, Bills, and Jets are all within one game of the final wildcard spot, but we do not like any of the trio’s chances.  Miami and the Jets have serious problems and appear to be heading to valleys.  Buffalo could pass both and finish in 2^nd place with a 7-9 record.

 

AFC North: Cincinnati is vulnerable here.  The Bengals are not a complete team.  They are inconsistent on both sides of the ball, but the real reason is that some opponents can exploit their weaknesses, while others cannot.  What is left on their schedule?  Four teams capable of exploiting their weaknesses.  A 2-3 finish is quite possible, which would send the Bengals to a 9-7 record.  It should still be enough to win the division, but the Ravens and Steelers are both capable of finishing 9-7 as well.  Thursday night’s Baltimore-Pittsburgh game at M&T Bank Stadium will leave one of the rivals at 6-6 with an excellent chance to go 3-1 down the stretch.

 

AFC South: Indianapolis is much like Cincinnati, except the Colts are even more vulnerable to teams that have superb passing quarterbacks.  Still, the rest of this league is weaker than the three weaker AFC East teams.  At worst, the Colts will falter to finish 10-6, and that will win this league by two to four games.  Tennessee is the technical number six team as of this week, but the Titans’ next two games are on the road against Indianapolis and Denver, which will send them to a 5-8 record with three to play.  The last wildcard spot will go to a 9-7 team.

 

AFC West: The race has gotten a little interesting.  Peyton Manning once again proved his inability to play in cold weather.  The Broncos covered for him in the first half with the defense scoring or setting up the scores, but Manning had one of his poorest performances in a Broncos’ uniform.  Kansas City’s once stellar defense has been picked apart in successive weeks by division rivals.  Still, the Chiefs need only win one more game to wrap up a wildcard bid.  San Diego is the 5-6 team with the overall best chance to finish 9-7.  Phillip Rivers has seen his career resurrected with Coach Mike McCoy and offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt present.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Dallas Cowboys	100.6	101.9	100.4
Philadelphia Eagles	98.9	100.1	99.2
New York Giants	96.3	96.1	95.5
Washington Redskins	95.0	95.0	94.7
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Chicago Bears	100.5	100.2	99.9
Detroit Lions	99.9	100.3	99.8
Green Bay Packers	98.2	97.0	97.1
Minnesota Vikings	94.6	94.0	93.8
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans Saints	107.8	109.2	108.7
Carolina Panthers	106.1	106.4	106.7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	97.3	97.1	97.4
Atlanta Falcons	94.8	94.0	93.8
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco 49ers	110.1	110.8	110.6
Seattle Seahawks	107.6	107.6	107.8
Arizona Cardinals	100.9	102.2	101.5
St. Louis Rams	100.8	101.6	101.3
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England Patriots	106.6	104.9	106.9
Miami Dolphins	98.6	98.3	98.9
Buffalo Bills	97.5	96.6	97.5
New York Jets	93.0	91.3	92.7
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Cincinnati Bengals	106.3	106.2	106.4
Baltimore Ravens	102.8	102.4	102.9
Pittsburgh Steelers	99.6	99.6	100.0
Cleveland Browns	95.8	95.5	95.4
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis Colts	100.6	100.7	100.7
Tennessee Titans	98.0	98.1	98.2
Houston Texans	95.2	94.5	95.1
Jacksonville Jaguars	88.8	88.5	88.5
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Denver Broncos	110.6	110.9	111.0
Kansas City Chiefs	102.3	103.7	102.7
San Diego Chargers	101.3	101.9	101.2
Oakland Raiders	93.6	93.4	93.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Detroit	Green Bay	4.2	5.8	5.2
Dallas	Oakland	10.0	11.5	9.7
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	5.7	5.3	5.4
Carolina	Tampa Bay	11.3	11.8	11.8
Cleveland	Jacksonville	10.0	10.0	9.9
Indianapolis	Tennessee	6.3	6.6	6.3
Kansas City	Denver	-5.3	-4.2	-5.3
Minnesota	Chicago	-3.4	-3.7	-3.6
N Y Jets	Miami	-2.6	-4.0	-3.2
Philadelphia	Arizona	1.5	1.4	1.2
Buffalo (@ Toronto)	Atlanta	4.2	4.1	5.2
San Francisco	St. Louis	12.3	12.2	12.3
Houston	New England	-8.4	-7.4	-8.8
San Diego	Cincinnati	-2.0	-1.3	-2.2
Washington	N Y Giants	1.2	1.4	1.7
Seattle	New Orleans	2.8	1.4	2.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Playoff Projections

A F C

1. Denver

2. New England

3. Indianapolis

4. Cincinnati

5. Kansas City

6. San Diego

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. New Orleans

3. Dallas

4. Detroit

5. Carolina

6. San Francisco

 

Wildcard Round

San Diego over Indianapolis

Kansas City over Cincinnati

San Francisco over Dallas

Carolina over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

Denver over San Diego

Kansas City over New England

Seattle over San Francisco

New Orleans over Carolina

 

Conference Championships

Kansas City over Denver

Seattle over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl

Seattle over Kansas City

2013 AFC West Preview

2013 A F C West Preview

The PiRate Ratings kickoff our coverage of the National Football League with our AFC West Division preview.

We have added a new wrinkle to our coverage this year.  In the past, friends of ours have asked us if we knew how to recreate the exact colors of their favorite team so that they could print those colors on their computer.  We have found this information from multiple sites in the last couple of months, and we are going to show you the RGB numbers so you can replicate those colors.  These can be used in graphics programs, but it can easily be used in MS-Word and MS-Excel.

Here are the official colors for the AFC West

West	Color	Red	Green	Blue
Denver Broncos	Navy	0	33	71
	Orange	255	99	25
Kansas City Chiefs	Red	198	12	48
	Gold	255	182	18
Oakland Raiders	Silver	133	136	139
	Black	17	28	36
San Diego Chargers	Navy	0	34	68
	Gold	255	182	18

2012 Final Standings & PiRate Ratings

AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	WLT	Pts	Opp
Denver Broncos	111.0	110.6	110.3	13-3-0	481	289
San Diego Chargers	98.4	99.1	99.5	7-9-0	350	350
Oakland Raiders	90.9	92.2	93.0	4-12-0	290	443
Kansas City Chiefs	87.6	87.8	87.9	2-14-0	211	425

 

2013 Preseason PiRate Ratings

West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Denver Broncos	106.9	107.6	107.2
San Diego Chargers	97.8	98.8	98.3
Kansas City Chiefs	95.6	99.2	96.0
Oakland Raiders	90.6	89.3	90.2
Division Means	97.7	98.7	97.9

PiRate Previews

 

Team	Denver Broncos
Head Coach	John Fox
O-Coord.	Adam Gase
D-Coord.	Jack Del Rio
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Peyton Manning
Running Back	Ronnie Hillman
Wide Receiver	Wes Welker
Wide Receiver	Eric Decker
Wide Receiver	Demaryius Thomas
Tight End	Joel Dreessen
Left Tackle	Ryan Clady
Left Guard	Zane Beadles
Center	Manny Ramirez
Right Guard	Louis Vasquez
Right Tackle	Orlando Franklin
	Defense
Left End	Derek Wolfe
Tackle	Kevin Vickerson
Nose Tackle	Terrance Knighton
Right End	Robert Ayers
Sam LB	Shaun Phillips (Von Miller after game 6)
Mike LB	Nate Irving
Will LB	Wesley Woodyard
Left CB	Champ Bailey
Right CB	Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Strong Safety	Mike Adams
Free Safety	Rahim Moore
	Special Teams
Kicker	Matt Prater
Punter	Britton Colquitt
K-Return	Trindon Holliday
P-Return	Trindon Holliday
Predictions
Record	12-4
Division	1st

 

 

Team	Kansas City Chiefs
Head Coach	Andy Reid
O-Coord.	Doug Pederson
D-Coord.	Bob Sutton
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Alex Smith
Running Back	Jamaal Charles
Fullback	Anthony Sherman
Wide Receiver	Donnie Avery
Wide Receiver	Dwayne Bowe
Tight End	Anthony Fasano
Left Tackle	Branden Albert
Left Guard	Jeff Allen
Center	Rodney Hudson
Right Guard	Jon Asamoah
Right Tackle	Eric Fisher
	Defense
Left End	Tyson Jackson
Nose Tackle	Dontari Poe
Right End	Mike DeVito
Left OLB	Justin Houston
Left ILB	Akeem Jordan
Right ILB	Derrick Johnson
Right OLB	Tamba Hali
Left CB	Brandon Flowers
Right CB	Sean Smith
Strong Safety	Eric Berry
Free Safety	Kendrick Lewis
	Special Teams
Kicker	Ryan Succop
Punter	Dustin Colquitt
K-Return	Dexter McCluster
P-Return	Dexter McCluster
Predictions
Record	7-9
Division	2nd

 

 

Team	Oakland Raiders
Head Coach	Dennis Allen
O-Coord.	Greg Olson
D-Coord.	Jason Tarver
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Terrell Pryor/Matt Flynn
Running Back	Darren McFadden
Fullback	Marcel Reece
Wide Receiver	Denarius Moore
Wide Receiver	Rod Streater
Tight End	Richard Gordon
Left Tackle	Jared Veldheer
Left Guard	Lucas Nix
Center	Stefan Wisniewski
Right Guard	Mike Brisiel
Right Tackle	Khalif Barnes
	Defense
Left End	Jason Hunter
Nose Tackle	Pat Sims
Right Tackle	Vance Walker
Right End	Lamarr Houston
Sam LB	Sio Moore
Mike LB	Nick Roach
Will LB	Kevin Burnett
Left CB	Mike Jenkins
Right CB	Tracy Porter
Strong Safety	Tyvon Branch
Free Safety	Charles Woodson
	Special Teams
Kicker	Chris Kluwe
Punter	Sebastian Janikowski
K-Return	Jacoby Ford
P-Return	Phillip Adams
Predictions
Record	5-11
Division	4th

 

 

Team	San Diego Chargers
Head Coach	Mike McCoy
O-Coord.	Ken Whisenhunt
D-Coord.	John Pagano
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Phillip Rivers
Running Back	Ryan Matthews
Fullback	LeRon McClain
Wide Receiver	Malcom Floyd
Wide Receiver	Vincent Brown
Tight End	Antonio Gates
Left Tackle	King Dunlap
Left Guard	Chad Rinehart
Center	Nick Hardwick
Right Guard	Jeromey Clary
Right Tackle	D. J. Fluker
	Defense
Left End	Kendall Reyes
Nose Tackle	Cam Thomas
Right End	Cory Liuget
Left OLB	Jarret Johnson
Left ILB	Manti Te’o
Right ILB	Donald Butler
Right OLB	Dwight Freeney
Left CB	Derek Cox
Right CB	Shareece Wright
Strong Safety	Marcus Gilchrist
Free Safety	Eric Weddie
	Special Teams
Kicker	Nick Novack
Punter	Mike Scifres
K-Return	Richard Goodman
P-Return	Eddie Royal
Predictions
Record	6-10
Division	3rd

 

The Pi-Rate NFL QB Rating

The PiRate NFL Pass Rating Formula

The National Football League has been using the same pass rating formula for multiple decades.  It uses a combination of completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns, and interceptions.  If you want to calculate it on your own, here it is:

I.     (Completion Percentage-30.0) * 0.05 +

II.    (Yards per attempt-3.0) * 0.25 +

III.   (20 * touchdowns per pass attempt) +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * interceptions per pass attempt)

If any of these four components are greater than 2.375, then cap the value at 2.375

Add these four stats together and multiple them by 16.667 to get the passer rating.  Here is an example:

In 1963, Y. A. Tittle had these stats for the New York Giants

Completions 221  Attempts 367  Yards 3145  Touchdowns 36  Interceptions 14

I.     (60.20 – 30.0) * 0.05 = 1.51  +

II.    (8.57-3.0) * 0.25 = 1.39        +

III.   (20 * .098) = 1.96                +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * .038) = 1.43    +

 Subtotal = 6.29     6.29 * 16.667 =

                     104.8

 

Once you know this formula, you can easily plug it into a spreadsheet and figure the ratings.  However, these ratings are a poor way to select the most efficient passer.

Let’s take a look at two opposing passers, Smith and Jones.

Smith completes 15 of 24 passes for 3 touchdowns with no interceptions.

Jones completes 10 of 24 passes for 0 touchdowns and 1 interception.

Smith is obviously much better, correct?  No, not correct.  It depends on several other things.  What if Jones has a lousy offensive line or receivers that drop every other pass thrown to them?  What if Smith has all day to pass with Jerry Rice-type receivers?  All these stats show us are just that—their stats.

Smith could have completed six passes to backs behind the line of scrimmage with the backs following blocking for long gains.  Jones could have threaded the needle with 30 yard passes to the deep sidelines only to have had them dropped by inept receivers.

In essence no pass-rating formula is worth a grain of salt.  Let’s look at two separate plays.  Passer A completes 13-yard pass for a touchdown.  It is a dump pass into the flat to the tailback with the tailback avoiding three defenders as he streaks into the end zone.  This one pass gets the NFL Maximum rating of 158.3.

Now, let’s look at Passer B.  His team is backed up at their own 1 yard line. He drops back and fires a bomb 55 yards through the air that comes down perfectly in the hands of his flanker.  The flanker takes off down the sideline and is knocked out just one yard from scoring.  This 98-yard pass gives Passer B a rating of 118.8!  Peyton Manning actually had a better total season rating than this a couple years ago, and even though he ranks among the best ever, he was not worth a 98-yard completion every time he threw the ball!

Can this be?  You betcha!  The rating is flawed.  Obviously the brilliantly thrown pass that travelled 55 yards past the line of scrimmage that comes down perfectly in the hands of the intended receiver should be worth a lot more than the dump pass that I could complete given two seconds protection.

Here is where the PiRate Pass Rating Formula tries to correct the incorrect values of the NFL Pass Rating Formula.

Our formula looks at just two statistics.  The first is interception percentage.  An intercepted pass is worth anywhere from 3 to 7 points for the other team on average.  We realize that all interceptions are not the same.  A poorly thrown pass into the flat at the offense’s 20-yard line hurts much more than a 3^rd and 25 pass thrown 40 yards downfield and intercepted by the defense. 

The second stat is called “Air Yards Per Attempt,” or AYPA.  It is simply the passing yardage minus the yards after catch.  If Passer A completed a 51-yard pass for a touchdown, but the play consisted of a pass completed to a tailback one yard past the line of scrimmage with the back running for 50 yards, the passer gets credit for an AYPA of 1 yard (51 yard pass – 50 yards after the catch).

Here is the PiRate Pass Rating Formula:

[AYPA * 7 – (11 * Interception %) + 105] * 0.8

 

Interception percentage is figured as: (Interceptions/Attempts) *100

Anything over 100 is an excellent rating.  Over 90 means the QB is above average.  80 would be considered average; below 80 means this QB should be looking over his shoulder for a replacement to take his job.

In our passer rating, we don’t include passing percentage or touchdown passes.  Yards gained are what matters.  Three consecutive completed passes that gain a total of nine yards means 4^th & 1.  Two incomplete passes followed by an 11 yard completion means 1^st & 10.  Which outcome is better?

Touchdowns skew the ratings.  If one coach sends in passing plays at the opponents’ one yard line, while another sends his 240-pound power back to plunge over the goal, the quarterbacks will get too much credit in once instance and no credit in the other. 

Let’s take a look at the PiRate Rating in action.  First, you must be wondering where can you find AYPA?  There is an excellent website that carries this stat, so you don’t have to try to figure out the YAC for each QB.  Go to: www.advancednflstats.com. 

Here is a look at both ratings side-by-side from 2009:

Player	PiRate QB Rating		Player	Official NFL Rating
Aaron Rodgers	108.9	|||	Drew Brees	109.6
Drew Brees	107.5	|||	Brett Favre	107.2
Brett Favre	106.7	|||	Phil Rivers	104.4
Tony Romo	105.6	|||	Aaron Rodgers	103.2
Phil Rivers	104.8	|||	Ben Roethlisberger	100.5
Ben Roethlisberger	97.9	|||	Peyton Manning	99.9
Matt Schaub	97.8	|||	Matt Schaub	98.6
Peyton Manning	97.2	|||	Tony Romo	97.6
Donovan McNabb	96.3	|||	Tom Brady	96.2
David Garrard	96.1	|||	Kurt Warner	93.2
Kyle Orton	94.7	|||	Eli Manning	93.1
Brad Gradkowski	94.4	|||	Donovan McNabb	92.9
Tom Brady	93.8	|||	Joe Flacco	88.9
Kurt Warner	93.4	|||	Kyle Orton	86.8
Eli Manning	92.8	|||	Jason Campbell	86.4
Vince Young	92.1	|||	Carson Palmer	83.6
Joe Flacco	87.7	|||	David Garrard	83.5
Marc Bulger	86.7	|||	Vince Young	82.8
Jason Campbell	85.4	|||	Alex Smith	81.5
Matt Ryan	83.0	|||	Matt Ryan	80.9
Carson Palmer	81.7	|||	Brad Gradkowski	80.6
Chad Henne	80.8	|||	Jay Cutler	76.8
Alex Smith	79.7	|||	Chad Henne	75.2
Brady Quinn	78.4	|||	Matt Hasselbeck	75.1
Matt Hasselbeck	75.7	|||	Trent Edwards	73.8
Matt Cassel	75.7	|||	Marc Bulger	70.7
Kerry Collins	72.1	|||	Matt Cassel	69.9
Trent Edwards	69.9	|||	Ryan Fitzpatrick	69.7
Kyle Boller	69.1	|||	Brady Quinn	67.2
Jay Cutler	67.3	|||	Kerry Collins	65.5
Ryan Fitzpatrick	64.3	|||	Mark Sanchez	63.0
Mark Sanchez	60.9	|||	Kyle Boller	61.2
JaMarcus Russell	56.4	|||	Matt Stafford	61.0
Matt Stafford	54.1	|||	Josh Freeman	59.8
Jake Delhomme	51.5	|||	Jake Delhomme	59.4
Josh Freeman	46.4	|||	JaMarcus Russell	50.0
Derek Anderson	46.3	|||	Derek Anderson	42.1

Coming Later This Week: We reveal the initial NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the 2011 season and give our predictions for each division.

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 16–December 23-27, 2010

Merry Christmas to all of our PiRate readers.  We wanted to send all of you a gift this year, but we didn’t have enough boxes here on the PiRate Ship. So, instead, we are going to issue a communal gift today. 2010 has been a very successful season for our picks, and our subscribers have pocketed a lot of PiRate booty thanks to a 69% record against the spread. We realize that several readers to this blog are not subscribers and thus can only see our picks from the previous week after the fact. For instance, we made just one selection last week.  It was a 3-game, 10-point teaser parlay, and it won.  We issued to our subscribers last week a bowl pick.  We took the three favorites (BYU, Northern Illinois, and Troy) and moved the spread by 10 points in our favor, making BYU a 2-point favorite, NIU a 9-point ‘dog, and Troy a 7-point ‘dog.  All three won outright and covered, making this a winning selection. We are only playing one 13-point teaser this week as our official pick, but we had two good picks to select from.  We always make an odd number of selections, because if we play an even amount and win half, it is a losing proposition. We are issuing our top choice to our subscribers, and they will receive this pick Thursday afternoon.  Today, we would like to issue our second choice pick to all of you as our gift.  We hope it is a winning one.  Additionally, we will show you a little behind our strategy. Here it is: We are going with a 4-game, 13-point teaser.  For those not familiar with this type of selection, you get to move the pointspreads 13 points in either direction, but you must win four different games.  If all four games win, you win the parlay.  If anything else happens, including three wins and a push, you lose. There are two key statistics to look at when playing a 13-point teaser.  Number one, you need to let the numbers play in your favor by picking a game that might give you an extra point or two.  Let’s say a team is a ½-point underdog.  If you like the underdog to cover, then you get them at 13 ½ points.  That is not in your favor.  Winning teams often win games by 14 points.   Now, let’s take another team that is a 4 ½-point underdog.  Adding 13 points in their favor makes them a 17 ½-point underdog.  Many games are decided by 17 points, while many fewer are decided by 18. Another key point is to take a favorite that you feel has a great chance to win and move the spread to make them an underdog.  A 5 ½-point favorite becomes a 7 ½-point underdog. Another great way to play teasers is to look at totals.  If the total for a game is 36 points, moving it 13 points lower and playing the OVER means you win if the final score is 14-10. The other key statistic is to look for games where your own personal beliefs indicate you are getting extra points in the selection.  Let’s say that you believe one team is six points better than their opponent, and they are a 4 ½-point favorite.  Giving the 4 ½ points in a straight selection is much too close to your six points difference.  One simple botched field goal or one long field goal made by the weaker team would kill your selection.  However, if you move the spread by 13 points in your favor, this part of the parlay now makes your favorite an 8 ½-point underdog.  The team you think can win by six can now lose by more than a touchdown and still win this part of the parlay. If you think two teams can play 10 times, and all 10 games will be within a narrow point range, you can even play both sides of a game.  For instance if Team A is favored by two points over Team B, and you believe that no matter which team wins, it will be by less than 10 points, you can take Team A at +11 and Team B at +15. Here is our Christmas gift to you. 1. 13-point teaser parlay Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis   Here is our reasoning for these four games.  Pittsburgh is in a must-win situation at home, and the Steelers will be mad after losing to the Jets Sunday.  Carolina won at home on Sunday and must turn around and play on Thursday night in possible snowy conditions with temperatures in the upper 20’s.  This is a perfect setup for the Steelers.  Carolina has nothing to play for in this game.  This is basically a pick when you lower the spread to a half point, as you win even if the Steelers win by one. Jacksonville has everything to play for, while the Redskins have nothing.  Washington’s big game was last Sunday against their rival.  They will not have much left in the tank this week.  Coach Mike Shanahan has lost the respect of a handful of players, and they are not going to go all out.  The Jags lost a tough game to Indianapolis, and they must now win out to have a legitimate shot at the AFC South title.  You get six points as a bonus, but we see the Jags winning this one outright. Baltimore is back in the race for the NFC North title.  The Steelers still hold the tiebreaker edge, but Pittsburgh has to play at Cleveland in week 17.  The Browns will be up for their rival, which means they may not be so up this week, especially after they just lost to their other big rival last week.  We believe Baltimore should win this outright, and we get 9 ½ points by taking the Ravens in this part of the parlay.  We have a slight problem with 9 ½, but we do not think Cleveland can win this by a touchdown if they play 10 times. We love the Raiders in this West Coast game.  Indianapolis will not have the services of Austin Collie, and the Raiders will hold Peyton Manning to two TD passes.  Indy will have a hard time stopping the Raiders’ offense, and we see a high-scoring game.  Remember, Oakland is still in the AFC West race, and they finish with the Chiefs in Kansas City.  They already hold the tiebreaker over San Diego, and a win in week 17 would give them the tiebreaker over the Chiefs.  They have to win in week 16 for week 17 to matter, and then they have to hope the Chargers lose once.  We believe Oakland will win this game, but even if they lose, it should not be by more than three to seven points. Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings                       NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Philadelphia 10 – 4 – 0 412 339 108.2 105.9 106.6 NY Giants 9 – 5 – 0 360 288 105.9 104.3 103.5 Dallas 5 – 9 – 0 354 396 98.7 99.2 99.8 Washington 5 – 9 – 0 268 343 93.9 96.9 95.4 Bitmap                     NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Green Bay 8 – 6 – 0 333 220 108.9 107.2 105.2 Chicago 10 – 4 – 0 293 242 103.8 104.4 104.9 Detroit 4 – 10 – 0 308 329 97.3 99.7 97.8 Minnesota 5 – 9 – 0 244 314 95.1 95.9 94.2                       NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Atlanta 12 – 2 – 0 369 261 107.7 106.1 107.2 New Orleans 10 – 4 – 0 354 270 105.9 103.8 105.2 Tampa Bay 8 – 6 – 0 280 290 98.6 98.9 100.3 Carolina 2 – 12 – 0 183 350 90.5 88.7 90.1                       NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased San Francisco 5 – 9 – 0 250 314 96.6 95.3 98.0 St. Louis 6 – 8 – 0 258 295 95.2 94.9 96.4 Seattle 6 – 8 – 0 279 363 93.4 93.1 95.1 Arizona 4 – 10 – 0 255 370 88.2 90.6 88.2                       AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased New England 12 – 2 – 0 446 303 112.8 110.6 110.9 NY Jets 10 – 4 – 0 295 259 102.8 103.3 103.8 Miami 7 – 7 – 0 239 261 100.2 100.0 99.7 Buffalo 4 – 10 – 0 273 353 98.3 98.0 97.7                       AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Baltimore 10 – 4 – 0 324 253 106.7 105.4 106.2 Pittsburgh 10 – 4 – 0 307 220 105.2 105.4 106.5 Cleveland 5 – 9 – 0 252 271 99.6 98.3 95.0 Cincinnati 3 – 11 – 0 281 362 95.3 95.9 94.3                       AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Indianapolis 8 – 6 – 0 381 342 101.2 102.2 101.5 Jacksonville 8 – 6 – 0 319 365 99.1 99.0 101.0 Houston 5 – 9 – 0 333 386 98.7 98.0 97.2 Tennessee 6 – 8 – 0 322 282 95.4 100.3 98.2                       AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased San Diego 8 – 6 – 0 388 260 106.9 106.3 105.9 Oakland 7 – 7 – 0 353 330 99.9 99.7 101.3 Kansas City 9 – 5 – 0 322 281 99.4 100.7 99.6 Denver 3 – 11 – 0 292 415 91.0 91.8 93.2 PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PITTSBURGH	Carolina	18.7	20.7	20.4	13.5	37
Dallas	ARIZONA	7.5	5.6	8.6	6.5	45
MIAMI	Detroit	4.9	2.3	3.9	3.5	41.5
PHILADELPHIA	Minnesota	16.1	13	15.4	NL	NL
JACKSONVILLE	Washington	8.2	5.1	8.6	7	45.5
ST. LOUIS	San Francisco	1.6	2.6	1.4	2.5	39.5
TAMPA BAY	Seattle	7.2	7.8	7.2	6	44
New England	BUFFALO	12.5	10.6	13.2	7.5	44
CHICAGO	New York Jets	4	4.1	4.1	2.5	36
Baltimore	CLEVELAND	4.1	4.1	8.2	3.5	38.5
KANSAS CITY	Tennessee	8	4.4	5.4	5	42
OAKLAND	Indianapolis	1.7	0.5	2.8	-3	47
Houston	DENVER	4.7	3.2	1	3	48.5
GREEN BAY	New York Giants	6	5.9	4.7	NL	NL
San Diego	CINCINNATI	8.6	7.4	8.6	7.5	44
ATLANTA	New Orleans	5.8	6.3	6	2.5	48.5

 

PiRate Playoff Projection

N F C

1. Atlanta 13-3

2. Philadelphia 12-4

3. Chicago 11-5

4. San Francisco 7-9

5. New Orleans 12-4

6. Green Bay 10-6

 

A F C

1. New England 14-2

2. Baltimore 12-4

3. San Diego 10-6

4. Jacksonville 10-6

5. New York Jets 11-5

6. Pittsburgh 11-5

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Chicago over Green Bay

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Pittsburgh over San Diego

New York Jets over Jacksonville

 

Divisional Playoff Round

Philadelphia over Chicago

Atlanta over New Orleans

 

New England over Pittsburgh

Baltimore over New York Jets

 

Conference Championships

Philadelphia over Atlanta

 

New England over Baltimore

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

PiRate QB Passer Rating 



Player	Team	G	AYPA	Int %	PiRate
Tom Brady	NE	14	6.8	0.89	114.2
Michael Vick	PHI	11	6.6	1.52	107.6
Matt Cassel	KC	13	5.8	1.31	105.0
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	10	6	1.49	104.5
Josh Freeman	TB	14	5.7	1.42	103.4
Phillip Rivers	SD	14	7	2.37	102.3
Vince Young	TEN	9	6.2	1.92	101.8
Joe Flacco	BAL	14	5.7	1.77	100.3
Kyle Orton	DEN	13	5.6	1.81	99.5
Colt McCoy	CLE	6	5.7	1.97	98.6
Matt Ryan	ATL	14	5.2	1.76	97.6
Matt Schaub	HOU	14	5.6	2.12	96.7
Aaron Rodgers	GB	13	6.1	2.44	96.7
Peyton Manning	IND	14	5.6	2.46	93.7
Kevin Kolb	PHI	6	4.9	2.61	88.4
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	14	4.6	2.55	87.3
Tony Romo	DAL	6	5.7	3.29	87.0
Jason Campbell	OAK	11	5.1	3.05	85.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	12	4.9	2.97	85.3
Jon Kitna	DAL	9	5.4	3.36	84.7
Drew Brees	NO	14	5.2	3.33	83.8
Sam Bradford	STL	14	4.1	2.71	83.1
Kerry Collins	TEN	8	4.5	2.97	83.1
Donovan McNabb	WAS	13	4.8	3.18	82.9
Shaun Hill	DET	9	4.4	3.13	81.1
Jay Cutler	CHI	13	4.9	3.53	80.4
Derek Anderson	ARI	12	4.1	3.06	80.0
Chad Henne	MIA	13	4.7	3.48	79.7
Alex Smith	SF	9	4.4	3.36	79.1
Carson Palmer	CIN	14	4.4	3.46	78.2
Jimmie Clausen	CAR	11	3.1	2.88	76.0
Eli Manning	NYG	14	5	4.19	75.1
David Garrard	JAX	13	4.6	3.96	74.9
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	13	4.3	3.86	74.1
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	6	4	4.43	67.4
Jake Delhomme	CLE	5	3.3	4.70	61.1
Brett Favre	MIN	13	4	5.31	59.7
Matt Moore	CAR	6	2	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%)) + 105) *0.8
						AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Yards Per Attempt – Yards After Catch
						AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 15–December 16-20, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
NY Giants	9	–	4	–	0	329	250	107.1	105.4	105.6
Philadelphia	9	–	4	–	0	374	308	107.0	105.4	105.6
Dallas	4	–	9	–	0	321	366	99.0	99.8	99.9
Washington	5	–	8	–	0	238	310	93.6	95.8	92.6
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	8	–	5	–	0	306	189	108.6	106.7	105.0
Chicago	9	–	4	–	0	253	228	101.6	101.7	103.2
Minnesota	5	–	8	–	0	230	274	97.3	98.4	97.5
Detroit	3	–	10	–	0	285	309	96.5	98.1	94.8
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Atlanta	11	–	2	–	0	335	243	106.9	106.1	107.5
New Orleans	10	–	3	–	0	330	240	106.3	105.0	106.6
Tampa Bay	8	–	5	–	0	260	267	99.4	99.9	101.2
Carolina	1	–	12	–	0	164	338	90.3	88.9	89.4
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco	5	–	8	–	0	243	280	98.2	97.1	99.8
St. Louis	6	–	7	–	0	245	268	96.5	95.7	98.0
Seattle	6	–	7	–	0	261	329	94.2	93.7	96.5
Arizona	4	–	9	–	0	243	351	88.4	91.3	92.5
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England	11	–	2	–	0	415	276	113.1	111.8	111.1
NY Jets	9	–	4	–	0	273	242	101.6	101.1	102.5
Miami	7	–	6	–	0	225	244	101.2	101.4	101.9
Buffalo	3	–	10	–	0	256	339	97.3	97.1	96.0
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Pittsburgh	10	–	3	–	0	290	198	106.4	106.2	107.4
Baltimore	9	–	4	–	0	294	229	106.3	104.8	105.4
Cleveland	5	–	8	–	0	235	252	99.9	99.1	96.9
Cincinnati	2	–	11	–	0	262	345	95.0	95.1	93.9
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	7	–	6	–	0	347	318	100.7	101.3	101.7
Houston	5	–	8	–	0	316	355	100.2	100.0	99.0
Jacksonville	8	–	5	–	0	295	331	99.6	99.8	101.8
Tennessee	5	–	8	–	0	291	265	93.9	97.8	93.7
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	7	–	6	–	0	354	253	105.3	105.9	104.2
Oakland	6	–	7	–	0	314	307	99.2	99.1	99.8
Kansas City	8	–	5	–	0	295	268	98.1	98.6	99.5
Denver	3	–	10	–	0	269	376	91.7	92.3	89.7

 

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 3:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog				PiRate		Mean		Bias	Vegas		Totals
SAN DIEGO	San Francisco				11.1		12.8		8.4	8 1/2		44 1/2
ST. LOUIS	Kansas City				1.4		0.1		2.5	NL		NL
Houston	TENNESSEE				3.3		-0.8		2.3	-1 1/2		47
INDIANAPOLIS	Jacksonville				4.1		4.5		2.9	5		48 1/2
CAROLINA	Arizona				4.9		0.6		-0.1	2 1/2		37 1/2
Cleveland	CINCINNATI				1.9		1.0		3.0	-2		40
MIAMI	Buffalo				5.9		6.3		7.9	5 1/2		41
NEW YORK GIANTS	Philadelphia				3.1		3.0		3.0	2 1/2		46
DALLAS	Washington				8.4		7.0		10.3	6		45
TAMPA BAY	Detroit				4.9		3.8		8.4	6		43
BALTIMORE	New Orleans				3.0		2.8		1.8	2		43 1/2
Atlanta	SEATTLE				8.7		8.4		7.0	6		45
PITTSBURGH	New York Jets				8.8		9.1		8.9	6		35 1/2
OAKLAND	Denver				10.5		9.8		13.1	6 1/2		44
NEW ENGLAND	Green Bay				7.5		8.1		9.1	NL		NL
Chicago	MINNESOTA				1.3		0.3		2.7	NL		NL
PiRate Passer #  Player		Team	G	AYPA		Int%		PiRate #
Tom Brady		NE	13	6.9		0.94		114.4
Michael Vick		PHI	10	6.8		1.36		110.1
Matt Cassel		KC	12	5.9		1.13		107.1
Ben Roethlisberger		PIT	9	6.2		1.72		103.6
Josh Freeman		TB	13	5.6		1.54		101.8
Vince Young		TEN	9	6.2		1.92		101.8
Phillip Rivers		SD	13	6.8		2.51		100.0
Joe Flacco		BAL	13	5.7		1.86		99.6
Kyle Orton		DEN	13	5.6		1.81		99.5
Matt Ryan		ATL	13	5.3		1.68		98.9
Matt Schaub		HOU	13	5.8		2.15		97.6
Aaron Rodgers		GB	13	6.1		2.44		96.7
Troy Smith		SF	5	5.6		2.38		94.4
Colt McCoy		CLE	5	5.4		2.36		93.5
Peyton Manning		IND	13	5.6		2.63		92.2
Jason Campbell		OAK	10	5		2.54		89.6
Kevin Kolb		PHI	6	4.9		2.61		88.4
Tony Romo		DAL	6	5.7		3.29		87.0
Mark Sanchez		NYJ	13	4.6		2.72		85.8
Sam Bradford		STL	13	4.3		2.53		85.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick		BUF	11	4.8		2.91		85.3
Drew Brees		NO	13	5.3		3.43		83.5
Kerry Collins		TEN	7	4.3		2.81		83.4
Donovan McNabb		WAS	13	4.8		3.18		82.9
Shaun Hill		DET	9	4.4		3.13		81.1
Jay Cutler		CHI	12	4.9		3.49		80.7
Alex Smith		SF	8	4.6		3.35		80.3
Derek Anderson		ARI	12	4.1		3.06		80.0
Jon Kitna		DAL	8	5.1		3.83		78.8
Matt Hasselbeck		SEA	12	4.6		3.55		78.6
Chad Henne		MIA	12	4.7		3.63		78.4
Carson Palmer		CIN	13	4.2		3.62		75.6
Eli Manning		NYG	13	4.9		4.34		73.3
David Garrard		JAX	12	4.4		4.14		72.2
Jimmie Clausen		CAR	10	2.8		3.13		72.2
Bruce Gradkowski		OAK	6	4		4.43		67.4
Brett Favre		MIN	12	4.1		5.13		61.8
Jake Delhomme		CLE	5	3.3		4.70		61.1
Matt Moore		CAR	6	2		6.99		33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (yards per attempt minus yards after catch)

AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New Orleans

2. Philadelphia

3. Chicago

4. Seattle

5. Atlanta

6. New York Giants

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Jacksonville

4. San Diego

5. Baltimore

6. New York Jets

 

Wildcard Round

Chicago over New York Giants

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Jacksonville over New York Jets

San Diego over Baltimore

 

Divisional Round

New Orleans over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Chicago

 

New England over San Diego

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

New England over Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl

New Orleans over New England

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 13–December 2-6, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Philadelphia	7	–	4	–	0	310	257	106.6	105.7	105.8	2
NY Giants	7	–	4	–	0	277	240	103.3	102.5	103.3	2
Dallas	3	–	8	–	0	256	301	96.8	98.9	99.5	2
Washington	5	–	6	–	0	215	262	96.3	97.1	96.1	3
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Green Bay	7	–	4	–	0	269	166	109.9	109.9	106.8	3
Chicago	8	–	3	–	0	222	172	103.3	103.4	104.7	4
Minnesota	4	–	7	–	0	189	239	97.1	99.0	99.6	3
Detroit	2	–	9	–	0	258	282	95.0	96.7	93.9	4
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Atlanta	9	–	2	–	0	276	209	106.3	105.3	106.9	4
New Orleans	8	–	3	–	0	265	197	105.8	104.5	106.6	2
Tampa Bay	7	–	4	–	0	219	223	99.1	99.0	100.6	2
Carolina	1	–	10	–	0	140	276	92.7	90.0	90.3	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Francisco	4	–	7	–	0	187	225	97.2	95.4	98.3	4
St. Louis	5	–	6	–	0	213	231	95.2	94.5	97.1	4
Seattle	5	–	6	–	0	209	275	93.9	92.5	95.3	3
Arizona	3	–	8	–	0	194	319	88.0	88.3	89.7	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
New England	9	–	2	–	0	334	266	107.8	107.0	107.5	3
NY Jets	9	–	2	–	0	264	187	106.3	105.5	106.3	2
Miami	6	–	5	–	0	205	225	102.3	101.3	102.3	3
Buffalo	2	–	9	–	0	229	295	97.7	97.1	97.0	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Baltimore	8	–	3	–	0	250	188	107.4	105.9	106.1	4
Pittsburgh	8	–	3	–	0	254	181	105.0	105.7	104.9	2
Cleveland	4	–	7	–	0	216	229	98.6	99.5	98.2	4
Cincinnati	2	–	9	–	0	225	288	95.0	95.5	91.3	3
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Indianapolis	6	–	5	–	0	282	252	102.9	102.9	102.2	4
Houston	5	–	6	–	0	264	287	100.6	100.3	99.4	2
Tennessee	5	–	6	–	0	257	218	96.7	102.1	96.5	4
Jacksonville	6	–	5	–	0	240	294	96.6	96.5	98.4	3
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Diego	6	–	5	–	0	310	225	106.9	106.2	104.2	4
Kansas City	7	–	4	–	0	285	231	100.2	100.2	101.1	4
Oakland	5	–	6	–	0	255	256	96.3	96.4	97.7	2
Denver	3	–	8	–	0	250	323	93.6	95.2	92.2	2

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 13: December 2-6, 2010
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PHILADELPHIA	Houston	8.0	7.4	8.4	8 1/2	51 1/2
MINNESOTA	Buffalo	2.4	4.9	5.6	6	44 1/2
MIAMI	Cleveland	6.7	4.8	7.1	4 1/2	42 1/2
TENNESSEE	Jacksonville	4.1	9.6	2.1	NL	NL
KANSAS CITY	Denver	10.6	9.0	12.9	8 1/2	45 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS	Washington	9.0	7.4	9.2	7	43
Chicago	DETROIT	4.3	2.7	6.8	3 1/2	44 1/2
GREEN BAY	San Francisco	15.7	17.5	11.5	9 1/2	42
New Orleans	CINCINNATI	7.8	6.0	12.3	6 1/2	46 1/2
Atlanta	TAMPA BAY	5.2	4.3	4.3	3	44 1/2
SAN DIEGO	Oakland	14.6	13.8	10.5	12 1/2	45 1/2
SEATTLE	Carolina	4.2	5.5	8.0	6	39 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	Dallas	10.1	8.0	6.7	5 1/2	47 1/2
St. Louis	ARIZONA	3.2	2.2	3.4	3	43
BALTIMORE	Pittsburgh	6.4	4.2	5.2	3	40
NEW ENGLAND	New York Jets	4.5	4.5	4.2	3 1/2	46

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int %	#
Michael Vick	Phi	6.8	0.43	118.3
Tom Brady	NE	6.5	1.12	110.5
Kyle Orton	Den	6.3	1.40	107.0
Matt Cassel	KC	6.0	1.24	106.7
Matt Ryan	Atl	5.6	1.23	104.5
Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	6.4	1.82	103.8
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.0	2.39	102.1
Josh Freeman	TB	5.6	1.53	101.9
Vince Young	Ten	6.2	1.92	101.8
Matt Shaub	Hou	5.8	1.91	99.7
Aaron Rodgers	GB	6.2	2.44	97.3
Seneca Wallace	Cle	5.4	2.00	96.6
Joe Flacco	Bal	5.7	2.19	96.6
Peyton Manning	Ind	5.6	2.26	95.5
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.2	2.20	93.8
Colt McCoy	Cle	5.4	2.36	93.5
Sam Bradford	Stl	4.5	2.18	90.0
Matt Hasselebeck	Sea	4.9	2.56	88.9
Kevin Kolb	Phi	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	Dal	5.7	3.29	87.0
Drew Brees	NO	5.4	3.29	85.3
Chad Henne	Mia	5.3	3.27	84.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick	Buf	4.8	3.03	84.2
Kerry Collins	Ten	4.2	2.80	82.8
Jay Cutler	Chi	5.0	3.42	81.9
Donovan McNabb	Was	4.8	3.31	81.8
Derek Anderson	Ari	4.2	2.93	81.7
Shaun Hill	Det	4.4	3.13	81.1
Jason Campbell	Oak	4.2	3.16	79.7
Jon Kitna	Dal	5.2	4.00	77.9
Carson Palmer	Cin	4.3	3.47	77.5
Eli Manning	NYG	5.2	4.26	75.7
Jimmy Clausen	Car	3.1	3.01	74.9
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
David Garrard	Jax	4.3	4.42	69.2
Bruce Gradkowski	Oak	4.0	4.43	67.4
Brett Favre	Min	4.2	4.86	64.8
Matt Moore	Car	2.0	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  This statistic removed the receivers’ Yards After Catch.

AYPA can be found at www.advancednflstats.com

Projected NFL Playoff Seedings

NFC

1. Atlanta Falcons

2. Chicago Bears

3. Philadelphia Eagles

4. St. Louis Rams

5. Green Bay Packers

6. New Orleans Saints

AFC

1. New England Patriots

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

3. San Diego Chargers

4. Indianapolis Colts

5. New York Jets

6. Baltimore Ravens

Wildcard Round

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Green Bay over St. Louis

Baltimore over San Diego

New York Jets over Indianapolis

Divisional Round

Atlanta over New Orleans

Chicago over Green Bay

Baltimore over New England

Pittsburgh over New York Jets

Conference Championships

Chicago over Atlanta

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

SUPER BOWL

Chicago over Baltimore

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 12–November 25-29, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
(listed by PiRate #)
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Philadelphia	7	–	3	–	0	284	226	106.9	106.2	106.0	2
NY Giants	6	–	4	–	0	253	220	104.1	102.5	103.5	2
Washington	5	–	5	–	0	202	245	97.3	98.8	99.0	3
Dallas	3	–	7	–	0	229	271	96.3	98.8	99.4	2
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	7	–	3	–	0	252	146	110.4	108.5	107.7	3
Chicago	7	–	3	–	0	191	146	103.0	102.8	102.7	4
Detroit	2	–	8	–	0	234	237	96.7	97.1	95.5	4
Minnesota	3	–	7	–	0	172	226	96.1	97.3	94.8	3
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans	7	–	3	–	0	235	170	106.3	103.8	105.4	2
Atlanta	8	–	2	–	0	256	192	105.8	105.0	106.7	4
Tampa Bay	7	–	3	–	0	209	206	98.3	99.6	101.1	2
Carolina	1	–	9	–	0	117	252	91.5	89.0	90.4	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Seattle	5	–	5	–	0	185	233	95.4	94.9	96.0	3
St. Louis	4	–	6	–	0	177	198	94.5	94.6	95.8	4
San Francisco	3	–	7	–	0	160	219	94.2	93.9	95.6	4
Arizona	3	–	7	–	0	188	292	91.0	91.3	91.4	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England	8	–	2	–	0	289	242	106.1	105.6	106.9	3
NY Jets	8	–	2	–	0	238	177	106.0	105.0	106.1	2
Miami	5	–	5	–	0	172	208	100.7	100.5	100.0	3
Buffalo	2	–	8	–	0	213	276	97.2	97.0	96.2	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Baltimore	7	–	3	–	0	233	178	108.2	105.1	106.0	4
Pittsburgh	7	–	3	–	0	235	165	105.5	106.2	105.7	2
Cleveland	3	–	7	–	0	192	206	99.8	99.9	97.3	4
Cincinnati	2	–	8	–	0	215	262	95.3	95.8	93.2	3
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	6	–	4	–	0	268	216	105.6	104.5	104.8	4
Tennessee	5	–	5	–	0	257	198	98.9	103.4	100.2	4
Houston	4	–	6	–	0	244	287	98.4	98.4	97.9	2
Jacksonville	6	–	4	–	0	220	270	95.8	97.6	100.8	3
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	5	–	5	–	0	274	211	104.2	103.5	103.7	4
Kansas City	6	–	4	–	0	243	207	98.7	99.8	100.6	4
Oakland	5	–	5	–	0	238	223	97.9	98.1	98.9	2
Denver	3	–	7	–	0	217	287	94.3	95.4	91.1	2

Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 12: November 25-29, 2010
Vegas Line as of 11:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
New England	DETROIT	5.4	4.5	7.4	6 1/2	51
New Orleans	DALLAS	8.0	3.0	4.0	3 1/2	50
NEW YORK JETS	Cincinnati	12.7	11.2	14.9	9	43
WASHINGTON	Minnesota	4.2	4.5	7.2	1 1/2	43
Pittsburgh	BUFFALO	6.3	7.2	7.5	6 1/2	43
HOUSTON	Tennessee	1.5	-3.0	-0.3	NL	NL
NEW YORK GIANTS	Jacksonville	10.3	6.9	4.7	7	44 1/2
CLEVELAND	Carolina	12.3	14.9	10.9	11	37 1/2
BALTIMORE	Tampa Bay	13.9	9.5	8.9	7 1/2	41
CHICAGO	Philadelphia	0.1	0.6	0.7	-3	42 1/2
Green Bay	ATLANTA	0.6	-0.5	-3.0	-2	47 1/2
Miami	OAKLAND	0.8	0.4	-0.9	NL	NL
Kansas City	SEATTLE	0.3	1.9	1.6	1 1/2	44 1/2
DENVER	Bitmap St. Louis	1.8	2.8	-2.7	4	44 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	San Diego	5.4	5.0	5.1	3	52
ARIZONA	San Francisco	0.8	1.4	-0.2	Pk	40

 

Projected NFL Playoffs

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Green Bay

3. Philadelphia

4. Seattle

5. New Orleans

6. Chicago

AFC

1. Baltimore

2. New York Jets

3. Indianapolis

4. San Diego

5. New England

6. Pittsburgh

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	7.2	0.00	124.3
Tom Brady	NE	6.1	1.22	107.5
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.2	1.55	105.1
Matt Cassel	KC	5.9	1.37	104.9
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.6	1.33	103.7
Peyton Manning	IND	5.9	1.59	103.0
Vince Young	TEN	6.2	1.92	101.8
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	6.5	2.14	101.6
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.0	2.55	100.8
Josh Freeman	TB	5.7	1.72	100.7
Matt Schaub	HOU	6.0	2.11	99.0
Joe Flacco	BAL	5.7	2.12	97.3
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	2.00	96.6
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.3	2.08	95.3
Colt McCoy	CLE	5.4	2.36	93.5
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.8	2.69	92.8
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	4.9	2.23	91.8
Kevin Kolb	PHI	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	DAL	5.7	3.29	87.0
Sam Bradford	STL	4.1	2.39	85.9
Drew Brees	NO	5.2	3.36	83.6
Chad Henne	MIA	5.0	3.27	83.2
Shaun Hill	DET	4.5	2.95	83.2
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	4.8	3.16	83.1
Kerry Collins	TEN	4.2	2.80	82.8
Donovan McNabb	WAS	4.9	3.35	81.9
Derek Anderson	ARI	4.2	2.94	81.6
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.7	3.30	81.3
Jason Campbell	OAK	4.2	3.16	79.7
Jay Cutler	CHI	4.7	3.69	77.8
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	2.8	2.90	74.2
Jon Kitna	DAL	5.0	4.43	73.0
Eli Manning	NYG	4.9	4.55	71.4
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	3.8	3.97	70.4
David Garrard	JAX	4.7	4.67	69.2
Brett Favre	MIN	4.0	5.20	60.7
Matt Moore	CAR	2.0	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
					AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It eliminates Yards After Catch and can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 11–November 18-22, 2010

Hottest Team In The League?

Quick question.  Three NFL teams have not lost a game since week six.  One of those three has outscored its opponents by 26 points per game in that time.  One has given up just one touchdown in their last two games.  The other has averaged over 30 points per game in their three-game winning streak.  Can you name these three teams?

It is no surprise that Green Bay has fared strongly in their current three-game winning streak.  The Packers were supposed to win their division and were supposed to be a top contender for the NFC representative in the Super Bowl  thanks to a powerful offense.  But, the Packers have done it with defense as of late, holding the Jets scoreless and giving up just seven to Dallas.

Atlanta has been a contender in the NFC South ever since Matt Ryan arrived.  The Falcons have scored 92 points in their three-game winning streak.

Ah, but who is this most dominating team of the trio–the one outscoring opponents by 38-12?  It’s the Oakland Raiders who all of a sudden find themselved in first place in the AFC West.  The Raiders visit Pittsburgh, and if they can beat the Steelers, they are officially back.

The Great Switch

Four games into this season, it appeared that offense was on the decline and half the league might give up less than 17 points per game.  As of late, offense has ruled.  Now half of the league could top 350 points.  This is just another part of this fascinating season in which no team appears to be dominant.  Look for 20 teams to challenge for the 12 playoff spots.  It would not surprise us to see three or more spots up for grabs in week 17.

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
(listed alphabetically by division)
Bitmap NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Philadelphia	6	–	3	–	0	257	209	106.2	104.8	105.0	2
NY Giants	6	–	3	–	0	236	193	104.8	102.8	104.3	2
Washington	4	–	5	–	0	183	229	95.6	97.2	93.5	3
Dallas	2	–	7	–	0	194	252	93.6	97.5	98.0	2
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Green Bay	6	–	3	–	0	221	143	108.1	106.5	104.5	3
Chicago	6	–	3	–	0	175	146	99.4	99.6	100.8	4
Detroit	2	–	7	–	0	215	202	98.9	99.4	97.0	4
Minnesota	3	–	6	–	0	169	195	98.4	100.0	97.6	3
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
New Orleans	6	–	3	–	0	201	151	105.8	103.1	103.9	2
Atlanta	7	–	2	–	0	222	175	104.0	103.6	104.9	4
Tampa Bay	6	–	3	–	0	188	206	96.0	96.9	98.9	2
Carolina	1	–	8	–	0	104	215	92.9	90.9	90.5	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Francisco	3	–	6	–	0	160	198	96.5	96.4	98.3	4
St. Louis	4	–	5	–	0	160	164	96.3	96.3	97.1	4
Seattle	5	–	4	–	0	166	199	95.9	95.8	98.1	3
Arizona	3	–	6	–	0	175	261	91.8	93.5	92.6	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
NY Jets	7	–	2	–	0	208	150	107.1	106.0	106.6	2
New England	7	–	2	–	0	258	214	106.3	105.0	106.8	3
Miami	5	–	4	–	0	172	192	102.8	102.2	102.0	3
Buffalo	1	–	8	–	0	164	245	95.0	94.7	92.9	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Baltimore	6	–	3	–	0	196	165	106.8	104.8	105.1	4
Pittsburgh	6	–	3	–	0	200	162	103.2	104.1	104.2	2
Cleveland	3	–	6	–	0	172	182	101.6	100.3	100.7	4
Cincinnati	2	–	7	–	0	184	213	98.0	98.8	96.7	3
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Indianapolis	6	–	3	–	0	240	185	105.4	104.1	104.7	4
Tennessee	5	–	4	–	0	241	179	102.1	104.2	101.6	4
Houston	4	–	5	–	0	217	257	97.3	97.0	97.4	2
Jacksonville	5	–	4	–	0	196	250	94.0	95.9	98.3	3
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Diego	4	–	5	–	0	239	197	102.6	102.2	101.9	4
Oakland	5	–	4	–	0	235	188	100.2	100.6	101.7	2
Kansas City	5	–	4	–	0	212	194	97.9	98.7	99.1	4
Denver	3	–	6	–	0	203	252	95.9	97.3	94.8	2

 

Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 10: November 18-22, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
MIAMI	Chicago	6.4	5.6	4.2	1 1/2	40
PITTSBURGH	Oakland	5.0	5.5	4.5	7 1/2	41
NEW YORK JETS	Houston	11.8	11.0	11.2	6 1/2	45 1/2
Baltimore	CAROLINA	11.9	11.9	12.6	10	37 1/2
TENNESSEE	Washington	10.5	11.0	12.1	7	44
Detroit	DALLAS	3.3	-0.1	-3.0	-6 1/2	47
Green Bay	MINNESOTA	6.7	3.3	3.9	3	44
CINCINNATI	Buffalo	6.0	7.1	6.8	5 1/2	44
Cleveland	JACKSONVILLE	4.6	1.4	-0.6	1 1/2	43
KANSAS CITY	Arizona	10.1	9.2	10.5	7 1/2	44
NEW ORLEANS	Seattle	11.9	9.3	7.8	11 1/2	44
Atlanta	ST. LOUIS	4.7	3.3	3.8	3	43
SAN FRANCISCO	Tampa Bay	4.5	3.5	3.4	3	41 1/2
NEW ENGLAND	Indianapolis	3.9	2.6	5.1	3	50 1/2
PHILADELPHIA	New York Giants	3.4	4.0	2.7	3	48 1/2
SAN DIEGO	Denver	10.7	8.9	11.1	10	50

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	7.5	0.00	126.0
Peyton Manning	IND	6.1	1.03	109.1
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.6	1.43	108.4
Tom Brady	NE	6	1.32	106.0
Matt Cassel	KC	5.7	1.50	102.7
Phillip Rivers	SD	7	2.43	101.8
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.5	1.48	101.8
Josh Freeman	TB	5.7	1.85	99.6
Vince Young	TEN	5.8	2.14	97.6
Colt McCoy	CLE	5.6	2.02	97.6
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	2.00	96.6
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	6.1	2.53	95.9
Matt Schaub	HOU	5.8	2.34	95.9
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.2	2.01	95.4
Joe Flacco	BAL	5.5	2.36	94.1
Aaron Rodger	GB	5.6	2.97	89.2
Kevin Kolb	PHI	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	DAL	5.7	3.29	87.0
Sam Bradford	STL	4.1	2.40	85.9
Jason Campbell	OAK	4.8	2.92	85.1
Drew Brees	NO	5.1	3.21	84.3
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.7	3.06	83.4
Chad Henne	MIA	5	3.27	83.2
Kerry Collins	TEN	4.2	2.80	82.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	4.6	3.08	82.6
Donovan McNabb	WAS	4.8	3.57	79.5
Shaun Hill	DET	4.4	3.37	79.0
Jay Cutler	CHI	4.8	3.66	78.7
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	3.7	2.97	78.6
Eli Manning	NYG	5.4	4.08	78.4
David Garrard	JAX	5.1	3.89	78.3
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	2.8	2.90	74.2
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	4.3	3.92	73.6
Derek Anderson	ARI	3.7	3.87	70.7
Jon Kitna	DAL	5	5.22	66.0
Brett Favre	MIN	4	5.54	57.6
Matt Moore	CAR	2	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It eliminates Yards After Catch and can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 10–November 11-15, 2010

Current NFL Standings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
NY Giants	6	–	2	–	0	216	160	108.0	105.0	108.7	2
Philadelphia	5	–	3	–	0	198	181	103.6	102.9	105.0	2
Washington	4	–	4	–	0	155	170	98.2	99.2	99.6	4
Dallas	1	–	7	–	0	161	232	90.4	94.8	90.0	3
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	6	–	3	–	0	221	143	108.1	106.5	106.7	3
Minnesota	3	–	5	–	0	156	168	99.6	100.2	96.5	3
Detroit	2	–	6	–	0	203	188	99.0	99.8	101.1	4
Chicago	5	–	3	–	0	148	133	98.2	99.3	101.4	2
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans	6	–	3	–	0	201	151	105.8	103.0	106.1	2
Atlanta	6	–	2	–	0	196	154	103.2	102.9	106.1	3
Tampa Bay	5	–	3	–	0	157	190	94.7	96.7	100.8	2
Carolina	1	–	7	–	0	88	184	94.2	90.9	91.2	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco	2	–	6	–	0	137	178	97.1	95.6	97.5	4
St. Louis	4	–	4	–	0	140	141	95.7	96.9	99.3	3
Arizona	3	–	5	–	0	157	225	94.3	94.6	92.5	4
Seattle	4	–	4	–	0	130	181	93.4	94.1	94.6	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
NY Jets	6	–	2	–	0	182	130	107.3	105.4	106.9	4
New England	6	–	2	–	0	219	188	104.7	104.0	104.3	2
Miami	4	–	4	–	0	143	175	101.7	100.3	101.1	2
Buffalo	0	–	8	–	0	150	233	94.9	93.4	93.6	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Baltimore	6	–	2	–	0	175	139	107.6	104.8	105.6	2
Pittsburgh	6	–	2	–	0	174	123	104.8	106.4	105.4	2
Cleveland	3	–	5	–	0	152	156	101.4	100.2	101.1	2
Cincinnati	2	–	6	–	0	167	190	97.5	97.9	93.2	4
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	5	–	3	–	0	187	151	105.9	105.4	104.2	4
Tennessee	5	–	3	–	0	224	150	103.2	106.6	103.3	2
Houston	4	–	4	–	0	176	196	97.5	98.4	97.5	2
Jacksonville	4	–	4	–	0	165	226	93.8	95.2	95.5	4
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	4	–	5	–	0	239	197	102.6	102.8	100.0	4
Kansas City	5	–	3	–	0	183	145	100.3	101.4	100.5	2
Oakland	5	–	4	–	0	235	188	100.2	100.6	100.3	2
Denver	2	–	6	–	0	154	223	93.5	94.7	90.6	2

 

THIS WEEK’S PIRATE, MEAN, AND BIAS SPREADS

 

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Baltimore	ATLANTA	1.4	-1.1	-3.5	-1 1/2	43
INDIANAPOLIS	Cincinnati	12.4	11.5	15.0	8	47 1/2
JACKSONVILLE	Houston	0.3	0.8	2.0	2	50
MIAMI	Tennessee	0.5	-4.3	-0.1	-1	42 1/2
CHICAGO	Minnesota	0.6	1.1	6.9	-1	40 1/2
Detroit	BUFFALO	2.1	4.4	5.5	-3	42 1/2
New York Jets	CLEVELAND	3.9	3.2	3.8	3	37
TAMPA BAY	Carolina	2.5	7.8	11.6	7	35 1/2
Kansas City	DENVER	4.8	4.7	7.9	1	42
SAN FRANCISCO	St. Louis	5.4	2.7	2.2	6	38 1/2
ARIZONA	Seattle	4.9	4.5	1.9	3	41
NEW YORK GIANTS	Dallas	19.6	12.2	20.7	14	45
PITTSBURGH	New England	2.1	4.4	3.1	4 1/2	45
Philadelphia	WASHINGTON	1.4	-0.3	1.4	3	42

 

PIRATE QUARTERBACK PASSER FORMULA

 

Player	Team	AYPA	Int%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	6.7	0.00	121.5
Peyton Manning	IND	6.2	1.14	108.7
Vince Young	TEN	6.5	1.64	106.0
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.4	1.58	105.9
Tom Brady	NE	5.7	1.53	102.4
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.0	2.43	101.8
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.5	1.74	99.5
Matt Cassel	KC	5.2	1.87	96.7
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	2.00	96.6
Mark San chez	NYJ	5.2	1.97	95.8
Josh Freeman	TB	5.3	2.03	95.8
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	6.4	2.75	95.6
Joe Flacco	BAL	5.6	2.28	95.3
Matt Schaub	HOU	5.4	2.62	91.2
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.9	2.52	89.3
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.6	2.97	89.2
Kevin Kolb	PHI	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	DAL	5.7	3.29	87.0
Donovan McNabb	WAS	4.9	2.89	86.0
Jason Campbell	OAK	4.8	2.92	85.1
Drew Brees	NO	5.1	3.21	84.3
Chad Henne	MIA	4.9	3.24	83.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	4.6	3.08	82.6
Jay Cutler	CHI	4.9	3.32	82.2
Sam Bradford	STL	3.9	2.74	81.7
Kerry Collins	TEN	4.6	3.45	79.4
Shaun Hill	DET	4.4	3.37	79.0
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	3.7	2.97	78.6
Eli Manning	NYG	5.3	4.06	78.0
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	4.3	3.92	73.6
Derek Anderson	ARI	3.7	3.87	70.7
David Garrard	JAX	4.2	4.70	66.2
Brett Favre	MIN	4.3	5.04	63.7
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	2.0	3.67	62.9
Jon Kitna	DAL	3.6	5.36	57.0
Trent Edwards	JAX	1.4	5.26	45.5
Matt Moore	CAR	2.0	6.99	33.7
Formula: [((7* Air Yards Per Attempt [eliminates YAC]) – (11* Int.%)) +105] * 0.8
AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 

 

Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New York Giants              12-4

2. Atlanta Falcons                 12-4

3. Green Bay Packers           10-6

4. Seattle Seahawks                 8-8

5. New Orleans Saints           11-5

6. Philadelphia Eagles           11-5

 

A F C

1. Pittsburgh Steelers            13-3

2. New York Jets                   12-4

3. Indianapolis Colts             10-6

4. Kansas City Chiefs            10-6

5. Baltimore Ravens              12-4

6. New England Patriots       11-5