The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 8, 2021

PiRate Picks For September 9-13, 2021

Last week’s opening picks missed, as Virginia Tech made Sam Howell look like Thurston Howell. Duke then failed to show up against Charlotte, and poof, our two picks were destroyed. Such is life when you wager on parlays that return the odds we look for when we place our imaginary wagers.

We have two more picks returning some fat odds this week, and maybe we’ll get lucky and hit on one. We will also tell you a week 1 tip for the NFL. Although we are here just for Money Line Parlays this year, it doesn’t mean we cannot give out a little interesting information.

Here are our two Money Line Parlays for Week two of the college season. We will eventually pick some NFL games, but Week one is not the time and place for that.

Parlay 1

Odds:+224
Must WinOpponent
VirginiaIllinois
RutgersSyracuse
MichiganWashington

Parlay 2

Odds:+180.56
Must WinOpponent
Mississippi St.North Carolina St.
TCUCalifornia

Here’s our tip for Week 1 of the NFL season. Underdogs of 1 to 3 points tend to win outright 50% of the time, but they also lose by less than 3 points another 8-10% of the time. That’s 58-60% success for wagering on 3-point Underdogs.

There are seven games as of this writing with a 3-point spread. The Dogs are:

Houston against Jacksonville

Arizona against Tennessee

Philadelphia against Atlanta

Indianapolis against Seattle

Cincinnati against Minnesota

Miami against New England

N.Y. Giants against Denver

September 1, 2021

PiRate Picks For September 1-6, 2021

Last week, we explained what our PiRate Picks are all about. We even gave you a sample Money Line Parlay that included Illinois beating Nebraska, UTEP beating New Mexico St., and UCLA beating Hawaii. This parlay had payout odds of +341, which meant if you wagered $100, and the teams all won, you would receive $441 in return. But, we made sure you understood that this was a sample and not official.

As of Monday afternoon, three people had notified us that they had played a little real currency on this parlay and were quite happy with their return.

How many times can we state this? Please do not bet real money on our just for fun selections! Okay, so one of you wagered $20, one of you wagered $50, and one of you wagered $100 on this parlay and won money. These same people could just as easily have lost this wager, and there is no guarantee that this week’s two selections have a snowball’s chance in Hades of winning.

We strongly urge you to look at these selections as mathematical entertainment and nothing else. If you are going to wager real money on sports, please do your research. Don’t rely on this site as your substitute for research. We use mathematical factors and not actual research to make these selections.

That said, we have two actual Money Line parlays this week, involving five games. If you did not read last week’s tutorial, or if you are a long-time follower of this site and need a refresher course, our expertise is the Money Line Parlay. The Money Line is a number, plus or minus. If the number is a minus, then you must wager this number of dollars against the book’s offering $100. So, a -145 means you the bettor must put up $145 to win $100 from the book. If you bet $145 on this game and won, you would receive $245 from the book ($100 + your investment money). If the number is positive, for every $100 you wager, the book offers the amount of the the positive numbers in dollars. So, a +170 means that if you wager $100 and win, the book will give you $270 ($170 + your investment).

When you wager on the money line, all that matters is that your selection wins. They can win by one point or 100 points; it doesn’t make a difference.

Obviously, if you want to wager on Alabama against Louisiana-Monroe, expect the Money Line to be about -100,000. You would have to wager $100,000 to win $100. If you wagered $100 on this parlay, when Alabama wins, you would receive one dime in profit, and the book would possibly not accept this one wager.

Obviously, it is much easier to bet a favorite to win, but you will receive less than even money odds. A -240 favorite equates to the team having a 70% chance of winning the game. If you believe that team has a better than 70% chance of winning, it might be worth your while to wager on it. If you win 75% of the time you wager on a -240 money line, you will turn a small profit.

The problem with wagering on favorites is that it is quite difficult to maintain the percentage needed to make a profit. Betting on 20 different teams at -240 and winning 13 of 20 means a loss of $380.

If you wager on a bunch of underdogs, there is also little chance that in the long run you will come out ahead. The answer to this is to bundle a group of favorites into a parlay that returns better than even money odds. For our purposes, we look for parlays of +120 and higher. At +150, we break even if the teams we wager on to win all win more than 40% of the time. At +200, if the parlay has a better than 33.3% chance on winning, we turn a profit.

It looks easy. Try it yourself without wagering. Look at the Money Line odds and make a parlay. There are free parlay calculators online to show you your odds. Try it with 10 parlays and see if you can win enough to make it work. You will find that the books know what they are doing. They build billion dollar mega-structures in the desert, because they know how to vacuum your money into their accounts.

Here are our two selections for Week 1 of the College Football Season. Remember, these are just for fun. We have a bottomless pretend bank account to repeatedly wager $100 on every selection.

Odds:+125
Must WinOpponent
Central FloridaBoise St.
DukeCharlotte


Odds:+265.98
Must WinOpponent
North CarolinaVirginia Tech
Kansas St.Stanford
PurdueOregon St.

August 26, 2021

PiRate Picks For August 28, 2021

Welcome to all the newcomers to the PiRate Ratings site for the 2021-2022 football season. Saturday, we have the fortune of having a dress rehearsal for the college football season. Nine FBS teams will be in action, as one FBS team plays an FCS opponent.

The PiRate Ratings enjoy issuing picks against the spread or money line on Thursdays each week until January. Because we are most concerned with Money Line Parlays, there are only five options to combine games this week, and many of the books do not issue a line for FBS vs. FCS games. So, in a quest to obtain the best odds, there really are just four games.

This presents multiple issues that basically make it close to impossible to issue a real wager, because the options don’t fit our paradigm. Let’s take a look.

First, before we get started, you must know and understand one thing. We offer these selections purely for the fun of it. It is math and not gambling to us. We NEVER bet on sports. We play with a pretend bankroll that never runs out. We wager the same amount of fake currency on every selection–$100. It could just as easily be $5, $10, $1000, $5000, whatever, but $100 is an easy number and typical of many wagers in real life.

Second, we urge you with everything we can say about it to NOT use this weekly feature as betting advice, unless you have legitimate advice or are a professional, and then this becomes a secondary reference.

Third, we hunt around for the best possible odds on our pretend wagers. You may or may not be able to find the same odds we do, because you would have to search at the exact same time we do. Because, we are not limited to just the legal books available to us in our state of Tennessee, where betting is legal, we might pick a parlay based on a sports book that is only for people in Nevada, or New Jersey, or even off shore.

Okay, now that you know the ground rules, here is our specialty–Money Line Parlays. The money line is different from the spread of a game, but the number is the equivalent of a spread. If a team is favored by 7 points, their money line is going to be roughly -330, and if a team is a 7-point underdog, their money line is going to be roughly +250.

How does a Money Line work? If the line is a negative number, if you wager the amount of the negative number and win, you will receive $100 plus the amount you wagered. So, if you wager on a team at -300, and you bet $300, if the bet wins, you will get back $400 (your investment money plus $100). If you lose, you are out the $300. On the other hand, if the line is a positive number, you can win that amount of money with a $100 wager. So, if the line on a team is +300, you can wager $100, and if the team wins, you receive $400 (your investment money plus $300).

In Money Line wagers, all that matters is that the team you picked wins the game, be it by 1 point or 63 points. Obviously, if Alabama is playing Mercer, the odds are going to be such that to win $100, you will have to put up maybe $100,000. So, if you bet $100 on Alabama at -100000, when Alabama wins, you receive $100.01. Would you risk $100,000 to win one penny?

When you wager on more than one money line to win as one bet, this is called a parlay. Let’s say that you like Mississippi State to beat Arkansas and Oklahoma State to beat Texas Tech. Mississippi State’s money line number is -275. Oklahoma State’s money line number is -250. By combining these two wagers into one bet, with $100 riding on the outcome, instead of attempting to win a little more than $36 on MSU and $40 on OSU, by combining the two games into a parlay, you stand to win almost $91 if both teams win. If you bet them individually, you would only win $76, so by combining the two, you win $15 more. Of course, if one team wins and the other loses, your losses would be less by playing the games separately.

The question you most likely wanted to ask while reading the above paragraph is, “Why risk playing two separate games that both teams you selected must win and still not get even money?” Did you ask it? The answer to that question is, “You are correct; why wager $100 to just win $91 and then have to be right twice to cash it?” You can bet a regular game against the spread and get 11-10 odds, just a fraction better than the odds of the parlay above.

The ultimate answer is that we are only looking for parlays that pay better than even money. We really don’t want to play any parlays at less than +120 odds, where we would win $6 for every $5 wagered.

The next question you might have is, “Isn’t finding two teams to win and pay off at +120 going to require me to bet an underdog to win outright?”

Our answer to you is, “Yes, but we don’t look for many two-team money line parlays. Let’s take a look at another example with three teams.

Let’s say that we believe that Washington will beat Oregon State, and the money line is -260.

We also believe that Army will beat Temple, and the money line is -240.

And, we believe that Wisconsin will beat Purdue, and the money line is -250.

If you wager $100 on these three teams to win, and all three teams win, your payout is just under $175 plus the $100 you wagered for almost $275 ($274.62 to be exact.)

Let’s take a look at 5 wagers, where we win two and lose three at these odds

We bet $500 at $100 for 5 wagers.

On the two winning wagers, we receive $275 * 2 or $550.

Invest $500 and win $550 by being right 40% of the time. In one week, we have made a 10% return on an investment. What investment on the Stock Market makes a 10% gain in one week after you have paid the commissions on the trip?

Ah, but here’s the rub: how often can you wager on 5 money line parlays that average +175 and win 40% of the parlays? Most people fall into this trap and only win about one of five of these parlays. At 20% success, you lose $225 a week for a 45% loss. Now, where can you loses 45% in the stock market in one week? We put our real money in high-cap value stocks with durable competitive advantages, long histories of consistent increases in earnings, and long histories of consistent dividend payouts. The pretend money is just fine for football wagering.

By now, you want to know who we are picking in Week 0 of the college football season. Maybe, you have figured it out already. We don’t have any official picks this week, because there are not enough games to come up with a parlay better than +120.

Here is a practice parlay that is not an official pick, but shown here to show you what we mean.

The three games involved are: Nebraska versus Illinois, UCLA versus Hawaii, and UTEP versus New Mexico St.

Let’s say that we think Illinois will upset the Cornhuskers, UCLA will take care of Hawaii, and UTEP will win the big rivalry game.

Here are the three Money Lines for these three games.

Illinois +215 vs. Nebraska

UCLA -875 vs. Hawaii

UTEP -390 vs. New Mexico St.

This parlay calculates to +341. If we wager $100 on this game, and Illinois, UCLA, and UTEP all win, we receive $441 in our account (The $100 we wagered plus the $341 on the win).

Why isn’t this an official pick? We believe that Illinois might have been an excellent pick against the spread when the Illinois-Nebraska game spread opened at -9 1/2. But, it has come down to -6 1/2 as of this writing. Sharp money was wagers on Illinois +9 1/2, and also on Nebraska -6 1/2. A three-point middling is too good to be true. Playing both sides, the Sharps only need to have the game win both sides one out of every 19 times (5.26%) to make a profit. The spreads of 7, 8, and 9 account for 10.8% of all FBS college football games. That’s double the amount needed to make a profit. The key is the Sharps can find these spreads when they open. Also, playing the opening lines is the most effective way to win for a Sharp.

The UTEP-New Mexico State game is the biggest issue in this parlay. One axiom that older Sharps believe in is not to rely on a losing program to have to win for you to win. The Miners are probably a 3-9 team, which is almost a good year for this program. The Aggies are really weak and should be an underdog in every game, but this is their big rival, maybe bigger than playing New Mexico. The I-10 rivalry frequently is a tossup game.

Two out of three of these games are iffy. The chances that Illinois pulls off the upset of Nebraska are not good enough to have faith in this parlay winning. Scott Frost is in deep cow poo if the Cornhuskers don’t win at least six games and earn a bowl bid, and losing to the weakest Big Ten team will turn the heater on in his heated seat. This will be Bret Bielema’s first game as Illinois head coach, and he brought in an offensive coordinator that runs a system totally different from what the Illini ran under Lovie Smith. Expect growing pains.

We hope this gets you pumped for next week, when there will be more than enough games to play some parlays.

February 6, 2021

Super Bowl Special Parlay

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:37 pm

The PiRate Ratings chose not to issue any picks during the college bowl season and playoffs nor with the NFL Playoffs. With just one football game remaining this season, there is but one potential parlay remaining.

Normally, we lay off the Super Bowl entirely. It is like betting the Kentucky Derby; there are much better propositions in horse racing, namely in claiming and allowance races.

The PiRates only issue picks against the spread for fun and entertainment. We never wager any real money on games, and we highly advise you not to ever wager money based on what you read here. A few years ago, we had a professional “sharp” who has turned some mighty steep profits over the years pick games against four other “squares,” including two very wise females. The sharp didn’t win the competition. No, the female flight attendant won with ease. Her method was basically looking online at the public and picking games where the public was heavy on one side of a game. She went the opposite way and won about 60% of the games she wagered.

In all the years we participated in our fun wagers, only twice did we ever finish with a success north of 60%. Buckeye Michelle has retired from wagering on games just for fun, and we don’t have the queen of street smarts helping out these days.

What we have left in the tank this year is one final parlay. We are going with a thought that in recent years, the Super Bowls have been tightly battled with low margins and totals in the average range, not to different from the spread and total line. By playing a 4-team, 13-point teaser at -140 at most books but at -130 if you can find it, you are allowed to move pointspreads and/or totals by 13 points in your favor. In other words if Team A is favored by 9 1/2 points over Team B, a 13-point teaser would allow you to move the line 13 points in either direction. Now, Team A would go from a 9 1/2 point favorite to a 3 1/2 point underdog. Or, Team B would go from a 9 1/2 point underdog to a 22 1/2 point underdog.

There is but one game left, and to play a 13-point teaser, we need four different wagers. By wagering on both sides of the spread and both sides of the total, there are four different wager choices.

As of Saturday night, February 6, the line is Kansas City -3, and the total is 56 points.

Here is the possible 4-game, 13-point teaser.

Kansas City +10

Tampa Bay +16

Over 43

Under 69

Our expectation in this game is that the winner will win by no more than eight points, and the game might be a tad lower scoring than expected, but not lower than 43 points which is a critical total line value. If we had to guess a score in this game it would be 31-27 with a 55% chance that Kansas City will win its second Super Bowl in a row and a 45% chance that Tom Brady will become the Babe Ruth of football.

Enjoy the game. The PiRate Ratings hope you have rent money on Monday, so please don’t wager this game based on what we have published.

December 18, 2020

PiRate Picks for December 18-21, 2020

A General Malaise

December in the sports wagering world has been about as sickly as the nation and world as a whole, but unfortunately, Pfizer and Moderna are not going to issue sports wagering vaccines to turn losers into winners.

How crazy have things been lately? Look at the most incredible Monday Night Football game in the 51 year history of the event. Baltimore was a 3 1/2 point favorite over Cleveland, and the Ravens led the Browns by three points after a brilliant drive that led to a long field goal. The Browns had one final play to hope for a miracle touchdown or to hope Baltimore committed a defensive 15-yard penalty that would lead to an untimed down and possible field goal to force overtime.

You’ve no doubt seen the dozen lateral play. Unless a large marching band is on the field, the play doesn’t work, because the offense needs a giant tuba player to set an important screen. The 99% of the other times, there are a dozen or so laterals that are fun to watch for 20-30 seconds. The play ends, and the game is over.

Well, this time it was different for the first time in another way. Cleveland ran out of real estate, and the last lateral led to a safety, making the final score a five-point spread. Unlike when a game outcome changes at the end when a team chooses to run the clock play one foot from scoring a touchdown that would change the margin winner or the total, this was totally different. 9,999 times out of 10,000, that part of the wagering public that was already counting their winnings with Cleveland covering, would have actually got those winnings. This was that one other time. Millions and millions of dollars changed on that one crazy play. Local sports talk radio in a state with legalized wagering took time out from coaching search speculation to talk with representatives of MGM and Fan Duel to get the juicy details.

As you know, we at the PiRate Ratings never wager real money on our selections and always recommend that you do the same if you are relying on our selections as real advice. We do this just for the fun of it. In past years, we have enjoyed some spectacular imaginary seasons. We’ve had a couple clinkers as well. This year, we had an imaginary profit entering Thanksgiving, but the last three weeks have seen just enough losses turn the profit to a minor loss for the season. And, unlike the one time Cleveland-Baltimore deal, we have seen our last selection of the week lose after two-thirds of the parlay had won. That last third has done us in. This past week, it was the Giants-Cardinals game. The Giants did us in the week before with the upset win at Seattle. On Thanksgiving, Dallas and Washington couldn’t get their offenses rolling enough.

This week, we joked among ourselves (only crazies like us would laugh at this), wondering if we should change the order of our selections, so that the final NFL game wouldn’t spoil the final third of a parlay. But, then we figured it would only infect the entire card. So, we continue to disbelieve the voodoo that somebody has been doing so well. We’ll call that nemesis, “The Wizard of Laterals.” The talisman that keeps him at bay is “The Gold Tuba.”

Here are this week’s selections. Remember, these are for entertainment purposes only, and we urge you not to wager real money on what you read, even if it’s your Christmas bonus. Save that money to pay for the expensive food on that diet you will begin in two weeks.

Dec 18-21
1. College 6 1/2 point Teaser-120
SelectionOpponentSpread
OklahomaIowa St.+1
Ohio St.Northwestern-13 1/2

2. College 10-point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
UtahWashington St.– 1/2
Air ForceArmy+7 1/2
Ole MissLSU+7 1/2

3. College 10-point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
MissouriMississippi St.+8 1/2
ClemsonNotre Dame– 1/2
MinnesotaWisconsin+22 1/2

4. College 10-point Teaser
SelectionOpponentSpread
Penn St.Illinois-5 1/2
AlabamaFlorida-7
CincinnatiTulsa-4 1/2

5. College Money Line Parlay+138.40
Must WinOpponentSpread
BuffaloBall St.
USCOregon+138.40
Texas A&MTennessee

6. College Money Line Parlay+187.04
Must WinOpponentSpread
MarshallUAB
OklahomaIowa St.+187.04
ClemsonNotre Dame

7. NFL 6-point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
Green BayCarolina-2
IndianapolisHouston-1 1/2

8. NFL 6-point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
TennesseeDetroit-6
New EnglandMiami+7 1/2

9. NFL 6 1/2-point Teaser-120
SelectionOpponentSpread
Kansas CityNew Orleans+3 1/2
PittsburghCincinnati-6 1/2

10. NFL Money Line Parlay+134.81
Must WinOpponentSpread
Green BayCarolina
TennesseeDetroit+134.81
Kansas CityNew Orleans

11. NFL Money Line Parlay+148.28
Must WinOpponentSpread
IndianapolisHouston
ArizonaPhiladelphia+148.28
BuffaloDenver

December 4, 2020

PiRate Picks for December 4-7, 2020

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:22 am

A Day Late — Hopefully Not A Dollar Short

We are publishing our most popular weekly feature at the PiRate Ratings a day later than normal. Four weeks of issuing some interesting parlays that we had a lot of faith in as winners only to see the games cancel the day that we published them forced us to take an extra 24 hours to try to eliminate the chances that we would see five parlays become void just after putting them out on this forum. Additionally, we tried to avoid games that involved teams that have forewarned that even as late as Friday afternoon, they could decide not to play. Also, there is the case of one team that is in danger of not having enough scholarship players remaining. Their choices would be to fold up operations for the year or play under the 53-man (or in this case 53-man and woman) limit.

Last week, we broke even, which is no fun. Our winning week was just a minute from being guaranteed, until the Baltimore Ravens scored at the end to make that game a push. It happens.

This week, we are stressing money line parlays paying off at better than even money odds. November was very kind to us in these plays, as we made a big fat profit on these better than +100 odds games. We are only going with one NFL selection, but in our statistical minds, it is our best parlay of the entire season–kiss of death!

Before looking at our selections for the week, please remember, that we have lost no money this year or any past year when issuing these selections, because we NEVER wager a penny on them. All of our picks are made with imaginary money at an imaginary book. We do know from your feedback that many of you actually use this site for wagering advice, but we don’t understand why. If you want to throw away hard-earned money because of something you read here, why not just donate that amount to a worthy charity. Our favorite charity with the five lasses that help me here on the PiRate ship is “Save A Fox” in Faribault, Minnesota: https://www.saveafox.org/.

Enjoy the selections, and the way to enjoy them is by keeping your money in your wallet.

College Money Line Parlays
1. 2-teams at +107.96
Must WinOpponentOdds
Miami (Fla.)Duke+107.96
MissouriArkansas

2. 3-teams at +145.28
Must WinOpponentOdds
Western Mich.Eastern Mich.
WashingtonStanford;+145.28
CincinnatiTulsa

3. 2-teams at +173.41
Must WinOpponentOdds
Texas A&MAuburn+173.41
Central Mich.Ball St.

4. 3-teams at +124.20 CANCELLED!
Must WinOpponentOdds
KentuckyS. Carolina
Buffalo (BU was en route to Ohio)Ohio+124.20
Iowa St.West Va.

5. 3-teams at +153.92
Must WinOpponentOdds
ToledoN. Illinois
San Diego St.Colorado St.+153.92
NC St.Georgia Tech

6. College 10-point Teaser at -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
TCUOklahoma St.+11
NebraskaPurdue+11
MemphisTulane+11.5

7. College 10-point Teaser at -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
Fla. AtlanticGa. Southern+12.5
San Jose St.Hawaii+11
OklahomaBaylor-11.5

8. College 10-point Teaser at -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
NevadaFresno St.+3.5
Oregon St.Utah+21.5
USCWashington St.-2.5

9. NFL 10-point Teaser at -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
MinnesotaJacksonvillePk
MiamiCincinnati-1.5
SeattleN.Y. Giants-0.5

October 15, 2020

PiRate Picks for October 15-19, 2020

That Virus Changes Everything–Injuries Not So Much!

We had a nice variety of games ready to feature here this week, but then that little tiny virus cancelled two of the games we were ready to play and greatly altered a third, making it unplayable. You can obviously determine the three college games we refer to in the above sentence.

A crucial injury in the NFL might have made you think we would avoid a certain team like the plague, yet we are not only making a selection involving said team, we are making a selection in that team’s favor.

You will also notice that we are playing opposite sides of the same college game this week, going with the underdog against a spread that our ratings indicate is too high, while picking the favorite to win in a money line parlay. It is not a mistake; this was a deliberate choice to hopefully hit an unorthodox middle.

Before you get all gung ho about these selections, remember that we do this only for mathematical (nerdy) fun. We never actually wager real money on these selections, and we highly advise you to refrain from using these selections as advice. This statement is repeated every week, but like people that still text while driving, a group of you will immediately place wagers on these selections to try to receive the same parlay odds.

Before revealing today’s selections, let’s do a little review of last week’s selections and how we are performing year to date with our imaginary bank roll that never runs out of fresh imaginary $100 bills.

Last week, we issued 12 selections and won half of them. It was a profitable week, because we were 3-0 on money line parlays with payouts of +295, +141, and +166.60. At $100 imaginary per wager, we invested $1,200 in nonexistent currency and received $1,470.01 for a proftiable return on investment of 22.5%.

For the year, we are now up 7.94% in the profit column. But, this by no means indicates that we are going to stay in the black for the remainder of the season.

Additionally, the way our selections won last week was 180° different from the way we won in prior weeks. It was straight wagering that was unusually accurate heading into last week’s selections, while the exotic wagers were in the toilet.

Last week, the straight wagers lost a little, while the exotics won big. So, we cannot guess which style of wagers will do better in any one week. Thus, if you choose to pick just one or two of our selections, you are really taking a double gamble with your investment.

Just as this edition was about to publish, word has come out on the Twitterverse that the Atlanta Falcons have just reported a rash of new positives, and their facilities have been closed. We have a selection involving the Falcons, so by the time you see this, the Vegas lines may have changed.

And, we offer our condolences to the family of former NFL player Fred Dean, who passed away as a result of the virus. Let’s hope the biggest loser is the virus, as it is beaten like Georgia Tech over Cumberland.

Here are our selections for this week. Stay well!

Date:10/15-10/19
College Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
1. HoustonBYU+5.5
2. KentuckyTennessee+6
3. Florida Intl.CharlotteCancelled


4. Money Line +143.55
Must WinOpponentOdds
SMUTulane
TennesseeKentucky+143.55
Notre DameLouisville


5. Money Line +152.83
Must WinOpponentOdds
Texas A&MMiss. St.
Middle Tenn.North Texas+152.83
N. CarolinaFlorida St.


NFL Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
6. DenverNew England+10
7. DallasArizona+2


8. 10-point Teaser Parlay
TeamTeamOdds
N.Y. GiantsWashingtonO32.5
PhiladelphiaBaltimoreO37.5
MiamiN.Y. JetsO37


9. Money Line Parlay +142.97
Must WinOpponentOdds
MinnesotaAtlanta
PittsburghCleveland+142.97


10. Money Line Parlay +110.23
Must WinOpponentOdds
BaltimorePhiladelphia
IndianapolisCincinnati+110.23
MiamiN.Y. Jets

September 17, 2020

PiRate Picks for September 17-21

College Straight Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
1.TulsaOklahoma St.+23.5
2. LibertyWestern Ky.+14.5
3. Boston Coll.Duke+6
4. Ga. SouthernFla. Atlantic1.5
5. MarshallAppy St.+5
6. SMUN. Texas14
7. UL-MonroeTexas St.+5.5
8. Wake ForestNC St.+2

9. Money Line Parlay @ +506.63
New Updated Odds: +523.50
Must WinOpponentPayout Odds
North CarolinaCharlottePpd.
UL-MonroeTexas St.+506.63
Wake ForestNC St.+523.50

NFL Straight Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
10. CincinnatiCleveland+6
11. JacksonvilleTennessee+9

12. NFL 7-point Teaser Parlay @ +130
TeamTeamTotal
DetroitGreen BayOver 42.5
BuffaloMiamiUnder 48
Las VegasNew OrleansOver 42

13. NFL 6-point Teaser Parlay @ -110
TeamTeamTotal
ChicagoNY GiantsUnder 48
JacksonvilleTennesseeUnder 49

14. NFL 6-point Teaser Parlay @ -110
TeamTeamTotal
NY JetsSan FranciscoUnder 48
CarolinaTampa BayOver 41.5

15. NFL 6-point Teaser Parlay @ -110
TeamTeamTotal
WashingtonArizonaOver 41.5
Kansas CityLA ChargersOver 41.5

16. Money Line Parlay @ +127.46
Must WinOpponentPayout Odds
San FranciscoNY Jets
Kansas CityLA Chargers+127.46
Green BayDetroit

Remember: These selections are 100% free to the reader, and you should realize that they are not worth what you paid for. So, do not wager real money on these picks like they are advice, because they are anything but.

Last week’s picks: 2-3-0 with an imaginary loss of $120. If a certain place kicker for a real college team had been able to kick real field goals from inside 30 yards, we would have won an imaginary profit of $120.

December 12, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For December 12-16, 2019

Davey19 Concludes College Football Regular Season With Second Perfect Slate In 3 Weeks!

Our experimental Davey19 forecast model went 3-0 last week during Conference Championship Week, correctly picking against the spread the AAC, Big 12, and Sun Belt Conference Championship Games.  This led to a final four weeks record of 22-8-1 or 73.3% against the spread, which is smashingly excellent.  It left the Davey19 system well in the black for the season.

We discovered quite early in the year that this system apparently works best on conference games in college football.  It was so-so with non-conference football and totally useless with NFL games.  So, because of that, Davey19 is being shut down for the college bowl season and the remainder of the NFL season.  We will continue to experiment with this system next year when the college teams play conference games, and then if we have another successful year, especially wiping up in November as the sample size increases, we may remove the “experimental” tag from the system name.

 

What you will get for the rest of the season are the regular PiRate Ratings selections, or in other words, the most useless but entertaining picks against the spread and the money line.  We are throwing caution to the wind coming up with picks so out in left field, that they are on top of the roof across the street from old Griffith Stadium in Washington.  For those of you under the age of 85 or not an architectural fan of old demolished baseball parks, it was over 400 feet to left field at Washington’s Griffith Stadium for most of its existence, until players like Harmon Killebrew, Roy Sievers, and Jim Lemon wore Washington Senators jerseys.  Therefore, the roof on top of the building over the left field wall was only reachable by visiting players like Jimmy Foxx and, of course, Mickey Mantle.

FYI: Mantle’s  565 foot blast over the bleachers at Griffith was hit to left-center and landed on Oakdale Street three houses down from the ballpark.  The Yankees’ radio announcer said something to the effect that somebody should get out a tape measure to see how far the blast carried.  Thus, the term “Tape Measure Home Run” was coined.  Additionally, the ball might have traveled several feet more had it not grazed the edge of the football scoreboard.  I would cite the source for this, but this is from aged memory without actually looking it up.

Okay, now that we’ve diverted your attention away from our crazy, goofy, insane, but free picks, here is how we are progressing the rest of the way.  You will receive our expertly “It seemed like a good idea at the time” selections.  Don’t you dare use them to wager real money on games unless you also like to touch live electricity while swimming in a pool.  None of the PiRates have ever wagered a dollar on any of the selections that appear on this site.  While we do know that there are pros, even two Sharps, that use our site for information, they are using our regular weekly ratings and have different algorithms and rules to apply to them to make profits.  These different Sharps are using data completely different from each other, and from one of them (actually somebody in the public eye as a pro), this person plugged numbers into a computer for weeks before discovering this anomaly that led to about 65.2% success against the spread over the last 6 years.  We take great pain to never issue these picks on this site for two reasons.  First, this person told us this in confidence and revealing it publicly means the odds might change and ruin this person’s very hard work.  Second, the minute we recommend these picks, luck will turn the other way and make them stop working.

Therefore, we seldom if ever make straight selections against the spread or the totals that might second what the successful system also chooses.  We have fun devising teaser and money line parlays, looking for the big odds payout.  Davey19 is totally different, as it is a mechanical system for picking conference games in college with occasional non-conference games selected.  While there have been times where Davey19 and the Sharp have selected the same games, we have tried to censor those games from Davey19 when there are enough other games the system chooses.  For instance, one week Davey19 flagged 10 games, but we only issued 7, because the other three were games that the Sharp also keyed.

So, here are our strictly for fun parlays for week 15 of the NFL system.  There have been some highly successful weeks with these picks, but there have been even more losing weeks, so once again, please look at these just for fun and do not wager these selections based on reading them here.

 

10-Point Teasers @ 10-12

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Denver

Kansas City

0.5

Kansas City

Carolina

Seattle

4

Seattle

Jacksonville

Oakland

3.5

Oakland

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Arizona

Cleveland

7.5

Cleveland

Dallas

LA Rams

8.5

LA Rams

Indianapolis

New Orleans

1.5

New Orleans

 

 

13-Point Teasers @ 10-13

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Baltimore

N.Y. Jets

29.5

N.Y. Jets

Green Bay

Chicago

17.5

Chicago

Chicago

Green Bay

8.5

Green Bay

Minnesota

LA Chargers

15.5

LA Chargers

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

LA Chargers

Minnesota

10.5

Minnesota

San Francisco

Atlanta

24

Atlanta

Pittsburgh

Buffalo

15

Buffalo

Buffalo

Pittsburgh

11

Pittsburgh

 

7-Point Teaser @ 10-13

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

New England

Cincinnati

2

New England

Detroit

Tampa Bay

3.5

Tampa Bay

 

 

Money Line Parlays

#1–1 Game at +435

In other words, this is a major upset pick that we just have a feeling about due to the favorite having played three tough games in a row and an underdog that can score points and plays better on the road than at home.

Winner

Loser

Atlanta

San Francisco

 

#2–2 Games at +156

Winner

Loser

Tennessee

Houston

Philadelphia

Washington

 

#3–2 Games at +198

Winner

Loser

Cleveland

Arizona

Minnesota

LA Chargers

 

#4–3 Games at +224

Winner

Loser

Kansas City

Denver

New England

Cincinnati

Buffalo

Pittsburgh

 

#5–3 Games at +241

Winner

Loser

Green Bay

Chicago

LA Rams

Dallas

New Orleans

Indianapolis

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 21, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 21-25, 2019

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:45 am

A Narrow Positive

We told you last week that the third week in November had historically been our most successful wagering week of the 21st Century.  Hopefully, this wasn’t a peak, but our selections did turn a small profit yet again on this favorable week of the season.

As far as the fourth week of November, our results over the last several years have been mixed.  Since this is a 5-Saturday November, the typical end of season rivalry games will be next week, so we are hoping that this week will be more typical of past third weeks.

Are you confused?  You shouldn’t be, because in the end, we highly encourage you not to wager based on any information you read here.  You pay nothing for these selections, so you should wager nothing on them.

This week our regular PiRate Picks will go big or go  home.  We are going with parlays that return big odds, and if we can win half of the  parlays, it will be a windfall imaginary profit.

We are also going to take our first 7-point, 3-game NFL Parlay of the season at 7-5 odds.

As for the Davey19 experimental system, we have seven selections against the spread.  Davey19 has been a somewhat positive experiment this year, and last week was another good one as the picks went 4-2-1.  It is experimental, so we cannot vouch for its continued success.  It is strictly mechanical and does not take into consideration the weather forecast and any injury news that came out after Monday’s PiRate Ratings were published.

 

PiRate Picks

Money Line Parlays

 

#1. 3-games at +219

USC over UCLA

UL-Monroe over Coastal Carolina

Stanford over California

 

 

#2. 4-games at +307

Michigan over Indiana

North Texas over Rice

San Jose St. over UNLV

Virginia Tech over Pittsburgh

 

 

#3. 5-games at +297

Oklahoma St. over West Virginia

Wake Forest over Duke

Louisville over Syracuse

Georgia St. over South Alabama

Georgia over Texas A&M

 

 

#4. 4-NFL games at +435

Houston over Indianapolis

Buffalo over Denver

Oakland over N.Y. Jets

New England over Dallas

 

 

#5. 3-Game, 7-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Houston

Indianapolis

10.5

Indianapolis

New Orleans

Carolina

1.5

New Orleans

Dallas

New England

0.5

New England

 

 

Davey19 Picks

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Wyoming

Colorado St.

6.5

Wyoming

Iowa

Illinois

15.5

Illinois

Ball St.

Kent St.

3.5

Kent St.

Virginia Tech

Pittsburgh

4

Virginia Tech

Nebraska

Maryland

4.5

Nebraska

Missouri

Tennessee

4

Tennessee

Fresno St.

Nevada

14

Nevada

 

 

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