The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 6, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Five: October 11-12, 2009

Week five in the NFL finds three excellent games on the schedule.  Who would have thought that the Baltimore-Cincinnati game would be a contest with first place on the line?  Atlanta visits San Francisco in a battle where the winner will be in great shape for qualifying for the playoffs, even this early in the season.  Denver hosts New England in a game that will definitely affect the playoff race.  If the Broncos sit at 5-0 on Monday morning, you can go ahead and make playoff plans if you live in Denver.  The Broncos have five very winnable games left on the schedule, and 10-6 will win the AFC West.

 

The PiRate Picks against the spread (find them at www.piratings.webs.com), finished 8-4 last week, making our record for the year 25-15-1.  In the last three weeks, our winning percentage has been a sizzling 72% against the spread (18-7-0).

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

Bitmap

NFC East

 

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

NY Giants

108.1

106.7

107.3

4-0-0

107

64

Philadelphia 

105.8

105.4

105.7

2-1-0

94

72

Dallas   

100.3

102.8

101.1

2-2-0

96

78

Washington

94.2

95.4

96.9

2-2-0

56

62

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Minnesota

105.0

105.2

105.8

4-0-0

118

80

Chicago  

103.5

103.5

103.7

3-1-0

105

78

Green Bay

99.9

101.1

101.3

2-2-0

104

93

Detroit  

93.8

92.0

92.8

1-3-0

83

134

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New Orleans

112.0

112.5

109.3

4-0-0

144

66

Atlanta  

103.6

99.1

103.1

2-1-0

57

53

Carolina  

98.5

94.7

97.3

0-3-0

37

87

Tampa Bay

89.0

91.3

90.5

0-4-0

54

107

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Francisco

103.0

103.5

104.8

3-1-0

102

53

Arizona  

97.7

100.2

99.4

1-2-0

57

68

Seattle  

95.7

97.3

97.9

1-3-0

74

82

St. Louis  

87.6

87.0

84.0

0-4-0

24

108

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New England

108.3

104.4

106.6

3-1-0

87

71

NY Jets  

102.6

104.2

105.1

3-1-0

74

57

Miami  

97.8

99.9

99.7

1-3-0

81

79

Buffalo  

96.2

95.9

96.2

1-3-0

74

110

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Baltimore

110.1

106.6

107.1

3-1-0

124

80

Pittsburgh

107.2

104.5

105.2

2-2-0

85

78

Cincinnati

100.3

100.0

101.7

3-1-0

84

76

Cleveland

89.8

91.5

89.2

0-4-0

49

118

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Indianapolis

107.5

109.5

107.8

4-0-0

106

62

Houston  

100.5

97.8

100.1

2-2-0

94

92

Tennessee

99.5

97.7

96.6

0-4-0

75

108

Jacksonville

98.2

101.5

100.4

2-2-0

97

86

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Diego

103.6

100.7

101.9

2-2-0

101

102

Denver  

100.1

105.4

104.3

4-0-0

79

26

Oakland  

90.8

90.5

90.1

1-3-0

42

86

Kansas City

89.4

92.5

87.2

0-4-0

64

112

 

Vegas Lines Shown as of 7PM ET Tuesday

This Week’s Games

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
   

 

 

 

 

 

HFA for Week 5 = 2.9  

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, October 11, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

Minnesota ST. LOUIS

14.5

15.3

18.9

10   

40   

Dallas KANSAS CITY

8.0

7.4

11.0

8 1/2

42 ½

CAROLINA Washington

7.2

2.2

3.3

3 1/2

37    

PHILADELPHIA Tampa Bay

19.7

17.0

18.1

14   

43 ½

N Y GIANTS Oakland

20.2

19.1

20.1

16   

39 ½

BUFFALO Cleveland

9.3

7.3

9.9

6   

40 ½

BALTIMORE Cincinnati

12.7

9.5

8.3

8 1/2

42   

Pittsburgh DETROIT

16.3

15.4

15.3

10 1/2

44   

SAN FRANCISCO Atlanta

2.3

7.3

4.6

2 1/2

40 1/2

New England DENVER

5.3

-3.9

-0.6

3   

41   

ARIZONA Houston

0.1

5.3

2.2

5 1/2

48   

SEATTLE Jacksonville

0.4

-0.7

0.4

NL

NL

Indianapolis TENNESSEE

5.1

8.9

8.3

3 1/2

45 1/2

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, October 12, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

N y Jets MIAMI

1.9

1.4

2.5

1 1/2

36   

September 29, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Four: October 4-5, 2009

NFL Playoff Picture Coming More Into Focus After Just Three Weeks

 

The PiRate Picks finished 6-1 Last Week—Go to www.piratings.webs.com to sign up for this week’s picks (deadline: 7PM Eastern Time Wednesdays)

 

Usually after three weeks, there are about three 3-0 teams and three 0-3 teams left in the NFL.  There are still seven undefeated teams and seven winless teams.  It looks like some of the playoff races are already on their way to being decided.

 

In the NFC, Tampa Bay and Carolina have already played themselves out of playoff contention.  St. Louis, Washington, and Detroit never had a chance, and Arizona and Seattle don’t appear to have it this year.  Six of the remaining nine teams will play in the postseason.  Count the Giants, Eagles, Saints, 49ers, and Vikings as clear-cut favorites for five of those spots.  The race for the final spot is between Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, and Dallas.

 

In the AFC, count out Kansas City, Oakland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Houston, Cleveland, Miami, and Buffalo.  Indianapolis just about has the South title secured.  It’s doubtful that any other AFC South team will qualify as a wildcard.  The Patriots and Jets should both qualify from the East, and Baltimore should qualify out of the North.  Pittsburgh has lost both games since the injury of Troy Polamalu, and both losses came from a breakdown in the secondary.  The Steelers could finish at 9-7 and be on the outside looking in.  Cincinnati is one freak play away from being 3-0, and the Bengals could take advantage of a softer schedule to sneak through with a 9-7 record.  9-7 may not qualify, because in the West Division, Denver and San Diego should both go 4-0 against their two weak sisters and both win double digit games.

 

Here’s a look at this week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings, as well as the schedule of games with the spreads.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bitmap

NFC East

 

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

NY Giants

107.8

106.5

106.2

3-0-0

80

48

Philadelphia

105.8

105.7

105.1

2-1-0

94

72

Dallas

100.6

103.4

101.8

2-1-0

86

61

Washington

94.7

96.5

94.7

1-2-0

40

49

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Minnesota

104.8

104.4

104.6

3-0-0

88

57

Chicago

103.2

102.1

102.6

2-1-0

57

54

Green Bay

100.1

100.9

101.8

2-1-0

81

63

Detroit

94.1

93.3

95.2

1-2-0

59

86

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New Orleans

111.5

109.8

108.5

3-0-0

120

56

Atlanta

103.6

100.2

102.6

2-1-0

57

53

Carolina  

98.5

95.7

96.2

0-3-0

37

87

Tampa Bay

88.5

92.6

91.5

0-3-0

41

91

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Francisco

102.1

102.4

103.1

2-1-0

67

53

Arizona

97.7

100.1

99.9

1-2-0

57

68

Seattle

96.8

97.8

98.4

1-2-0

57

48

St. Louis

88.5

88.8

88.9

0-3-0

24

73

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New England

107.7

104.3

104.9

2-1-0

60

50

NY Jets

103.1

104.2

104.5

3-0-0

64

33

Buffalo

97.6

98.2

99.8

1-2-0

64

72

Miami

96.4

96.9

97.2

0-3-0

43

69

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Baltimore

110.7

107.2

107.0

3-0-0

103

53

Pittsburgh

106.1

103.5

103.2

1-2-0

47

50

Cincinnati

100.8

100.3

101.2

2-1-0

61

56

Cleveland

89.3

91.2

88.4

0-3-0

29

95

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Indianapolis

106.4

106.1

106.5

3-0-0

72

45

Tennessee

102.3

100.6

99.5

0-3-0

58

71

Houston

99.3

96.5

98.3

1-2-0

65

86

Jacksonville

95.4

98.2

98.5

1-2-0

60

69

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Diego

104.7

103.6

103.8

2-1-0

73

64

Denver

99.8

102.8

102.7

3-0-0

62

16

Oakland

92.0

94.0

92.8

1-2-0

36

57

Kansas City

89.7

92.5

90.8

0-3-0

48

85

 

This Week’s Games

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
   

 

 

 

 

 

HFA for Week 4 = 2.8  

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, October 4, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

HOUSTON Oakland

10.1

5.3

8.3

9 1/2

42   

Tennessee JACKSONVILLE

4.1

-0.4

-1.8

3   

41 1/2

Baltimore NEW ENGLAND

0.2

0.1

-0.5

2   

44 1/2

Cincinnati CLEVELAND

8.7

6.3

10.0

5 1/2

38 1/2

New York Giants KANSAS CITY

15.3

11.2

12.6

9   

42 1/2

CHICAGO Detroit

11.9

11.6

10.2

10   

38 1/2

WASHINGTON Tampa Bay

9.0

7.3

6.0

7   

37   

INDIANAPOLIS Seattle

12.4

11.1

10.9

NL

NL

NEW ORLEANS New York Jets

11.2

8.4

6.8

6 1/2

45 1/2

MIAMI Buffalo

1.6

1.5

0.2

-2   

36 1/2

SAN FRANCISCO St. Louis

16.4

16.4

17.0

10   

37 1/2

DENVER Dallas

2.0

2.2

3.7

3   

43   

PITTSBURGH San Diego

5.2

2.7

2.2

6 1/2

43   

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, October 5, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

MINNESOTA Green Bay

7.5

6.3

6.6

3 1/2

46   

September 23, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Three–September 27-28, 2009

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC East

 

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

NY Giants

105.6

104.5

106.1

2-0-0

56

48

Philadelphia

105.3

104.6

104.3

1-1-0

60

58

Dallas

98.5

102.6

101.3

1-1-0

65

54

Washington

96.3

97.8

97.5

1-1-0

26

30

               
NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Minnesota

104.9

104.0

105.3

2-0-0

61

33

Chicago

102.7

100.7

102.4

1-1-0

32

35

Green Bay

98.8

99.4

100.1

1-1-0

45

46

Detroit

92.8

91.9

90.8

0-2-0

40

72

               
NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New Orleans

108.8

108.0

108.0

2-0-0

93

49

Atlanta

105.1

102.2

103.1

2-0-0

47

27

Carolina  

100.2

96.8

96.9

0-2-0

30

66

Tampa Bay

91.4

95.1

93.6

0-2-0

41

67

               
NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Francisco

101.9

101.6

103.0

2-0-0

43

26

Arizona

101.0

102.0

102.3

1-1-0

47

37

Seattle

97.3

99.5

99.8

1-1-0

38

23

St. Louis

90.6

91.5

90.9

0-2-0

7

37

               
AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New England

105.9

103.0

104.6

1-1-0

34

40

NY Jets

101.8

103.7

104.6

2-0-0

40

16

Buffalo

99.9

100.3

100.5

1-1-0

57

45

Miami

96.5

97.4

98.7

0-2-0

30

46

               
AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Baltimore

107.7

106.3

106.9

2-0-0

69

50

Pittsburgh

106.7

104.3

105.1

1-1-0

27

27

Cincinnati

99.9

98.3

98.3

1-1-0

38

36

Cleveland

91.9

92.4

87.7

0-2-0

26

61

               
AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Tennessee

103.9

100.5

100.7

0-2-0

41

47

Indianapolis

102.9

103.2

104.7

2-0-0

41

35

Houston

101.8

97.8

100.4

1-1-0

41

55

Jacksonville

92.6

97.5

94.9

0-2-0

29

45

               
AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Diego

104.6

102.9

102.6

1-1-0

50

51

Denver

97.2

100.4

98.2

2-0-0

39

13

Oakland

95.1

95.9

95.1

1-1-0

33

34

Kansas City

90.0

94.3

91.9

0-2-0

34

51

 

This Week’s Games

 
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
   

 

 

 

 

 

HFA for Week 3 = 2.8  

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, September 27, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

NEW YORK JETS Tennessee

0.7

6.0

6.7

3   

37   

HOUSTON Jacksonville

12.0

3.1

8.3

3 1/2

46 1/2

PHILADELPHIA Kansas City

18.1

13.1

15.2

NL

NL

BALTIMORE Cleveland

18.6

16.7

22.0

13   

38 1/2

New York Giants TAMPA BAY

11.4

6.6

9.7

6 1/2

44   

Washington DETROIT

0.7

3.1

3.9

6 1/2

38 1/2

Green Bay ST. LOUIS

5.4

5.1

6.4

6 1/2

41   

MINNESOTA San Francisco

5.8

5.2

5.1

6 1/2

40   

NEW ENGLAND Atlanta

3.6

3.6

4.3

4   

44 1/2

Chicago SEATTLE

2.6

-1.6

-0.2

2   

37   

New Orleans BUFFALO

6.1

4.9

4.7

6   

51 1/2

SAN DIEGO Miami

10.9

8.3

6.7

6   

44   

Pittsburgh CINCINNATI

4.0

3.2

4.0

4   

37   

OAKLAND Denver

0.7

-1.7

-0.3

-1 1/2

36   

ARIZONA Indianapolis

0.9

1.6

0.4

2 1/2

47 1/2

   

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, September 28, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

DALLAS Carolina

1.1

8.6

7.2

9   

47   

               

 

For the PiRate Picks of the week, please go to: www.piratings.webs.com

September 16, 2009

NFL Football Week 2 PiRate Ratings and Spreads

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
   
NFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Philadelphia 107.2 107.9 108.5 1-0-0 38 10
N Y Giants 105.6 106.2 107.9 1-0-0 23 17
Dallas 98.8 103.2 104.1 1-0-0 34 21
Washington 98.8 99.6 100.4 0-1-0 17 23
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased
Minnesota 105.7 103.7 105.6 1-0-0 34 20
Chicago 101.8 100.3 101.7 0-1-1 15 21
Green Bay 101.2 101.5 102.4 1-0-0 21 15
Detroit 91.7 91.2 91.9 0-1-0 27 45
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased
New Orleans 106.4 103.7 105.7 1-0-0 45 27
Atlanta 104.9 102.0 104.5 1-0-0 19 7
Carolina 100.6 98.7 100.6 0-1-0 10 38
Tampa Bay 92.4 97.0 96.8 0-1-0 21 34
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased
San Francisco 99.2 97.4 101.2 1-0-0 20 16
Seattle 99.2 99.2 101.6 1-0-0 28 0
Arizona 98.6 99.3 100.9 0-1-0 16 20
St. Louis 88.9 89.0 89.7 0-1-0 0 28
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased
New England 106.7 105.7 106.2 1-0-0 25 24
N Y Jets 100.6 101.0 102.2 1-0-0 24 7
Buffalo 98.9 98.4 100.7 0-1-0 24 25
Miami 97.9 97.3 99.7 0-1-0 7 19
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased
Pittsburgh 107.4 108.2 107.4 1-0-0 13 10
Baltimore 106.9 106.0 107.5 1-0-0 38 24
Cincinnati 97.5 95.6 98.7 0-1-0 7 12
Cleveland 95.0 94.3 96.2 0-1-0 20 34
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased
Tennessee 107.0 104.6 104.8 0-1-0 10 13
Indianapolis 101.3 105.4 105.6 1-0-0 14 12
Houston 99.0 96.4 99.2 0-1-0 7 24
Jacksonville 95.1 99.0 100.1 0-1-0 12 14
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased
San Diego 105.2 103.4 104.2 1-0-0 24 20
Oakland 95.2 94.2 98.0 0-1-0 20 24
Denver 94.9 96.8 96.0 1-0-0 12 7
Kansas City 90.0 93.3 93.1 0-1-0 24 38

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 2 = 2.5
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias
Oakland KANSAS CITY 2.7 -1.6 2.4
TENNESSEE Houston 10.5 10.7 8.1
New England NEW YORK JETS 3.6 2.2 1.5
GREEN BAY Cincinnati 6.2 9.7 6.2
Minnesota DETROIT 16.5 15.0 16.2
PHILADELPHIA New Orleans 3.3 6.7 5.3
ATLANTA Carolina 6.8 5.8 6.4
WASHINGTON St. Louis 12.4 13.1 13.2
Arizona JACKSONVILLE 1.0 -2.2 -1.7
SAN FRANCISCO Seattle 2.5 0.7 2.1
BUFFALO Tampa Bay 9.0 3.9 6.4
DENVER Cleveland 2.4 3.7 2.3
SAN DIEGO Baltimore 0.8 -0.1 -0.8
Pittsburgh CHICAGO 3.1 5.4 3.2
New York Giants DALLAS 4.3 0.5 1.3
Monday, September 21, 2009
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias
Indianapolis MIAMI 0.9 5.6 3.4

September 8, 2009

NFL Football Week 1 PiRate Ratings and Spreads

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC East

Rating

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Philadelphia

102.1

106.5

107.2

0-0-0

0

0

New York

102.0

105.8

107.0

0-0-0

0

0

Washington

95.2

99.6

100.2

0-0-0

0

0

Dallas

93.4

102.2

101.0

0-0-0

0

0

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

Rating

Mean

Biased

 

 

 

Minnesota

101.8

102.5

105.2

0-0-0

0

0

Chicago

98.5

100.9

101.2

0-0-0

0

0

Green Bay

97.3

100.6

102.1

0-0-0

0

0

Detroit

88.4

90.7

92.3

0-0-0

0

0

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

Rating

Mean

Biased

 

 

 

New Orleans

102.5

101.8

104.0

0-0-0

0

0

Atlanta

101.1

101.6

102.4

0-0-0

0

0

Carolina  

98.5

102.5

103.3

0-0-0

0

0

Tampa Bay

90.6

98.2

96.7

0-0-0

0

0

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

Rating

Mean

Biased

 

 

 

Arizona

96.3

101.7

101.5

0-0-0

0

0

San Francisco

94.3

96.1

98.2

0-0-0

0

0

Seattle

93.4

95.7

98.5

0-0-0

0

0

St. Louis

87.5

90.5

90.9

0-0-0

0

0

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

Rating

Mean

Biased

 

 

 

New England

104.2

106.2

108.8

0-0-0

0

0

New York

94.7

98.5

97.5

0-0-0

0

0

Miami

94.5

99.2

101.8

0-0-0

0

0

Buffalo

94.2

96.9

96.5

0-0-0

0

0

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

Rating

Mean

Biased

 

 

 

Pittsburgh

104.0

109.5

108.8

0-0-0

0

0

Baltimore

103.5

106.4

106.9

0-0-0

0

0

Cincinnati

94.2

96.5

95.8

0-0-0

0

0

Cleveland

91.7

94.5

94.9

0-0-0

0

0

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

Rating

Mean

Biased

 

 

 

Tennessee

103.2

105.3

105.4

0-0-0

0

0

Indianapolis

97.9

105.8

106.2

0-0-0

0

0

Houston

97.7

99.5

100.7

0-0-0

0

0

Jacksonville

91.3

98.2

97.4

0-0-0

0

0

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

Rating

Mean

Biased

 

 

 

San Diego

102.0

103.9

105.5

0-0-0

0

0

Oakland

91.2

94.0

94.7

0-0-0

0

0

Denver

91.0

95.6

95.0

0-0-0

0

0

Kansas City

86.2

92.8

92.9

0-0-0

0

0

 

This Week’s Games            
Home Team in Bold (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
   

 

 

 

 

 

HFA for Week 1 = 2.8  

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, September 10

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

PITTSBURGH Tennessee

3.6

7.0

6.2

6   

35   

   

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, September 13, 2009

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

ATLANTA Miami

9.3

5.2

3.4

4   

43   

BALTIMORE Kansas City

20.1

16.4

16.8

13   

36   

Philadelphia CAROLINA

0.8

1.2

1.1

1   

43 1/2

CINCINNATI Denver

6.0

3.7

3.6

4 1/2

43 1/2

Minnesota CLEVELAND

7.3

5.2

7.5

4   

40   

HOUSTON N. Y. Jets

5.8

3.8

6.0

4 1/2

43   

INDIANAPOLIS Jacksonville

9.4

10.4

11.6

7   

44 1/2

NEW ORLEANS Detroit

16.9

13.9

14.5

13   

48 1/2

Dallas TAMPA BAY

0.0

1.2

1.5

6   

39   

ARIZONA San Francisco

4.8

8.4

6.1

6 1/2

46 1/2

N. Y. Giants Washington

9.6

9.0

9.6

6 1/2

37 1/2

SEATTLE St. Louis

8.7

8.0

10.4

8 1/2

41 1/2

GREEN BAY Chicago

1.6

2.5

3.7

3 1/2

46 1/2

   

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, September 14, 2009

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

NEW ENGLAND Buffalo

12.8

12.1

15.1

11   

47 1/2

San Diego OAKLAND

8.0

7.1

8.0

9 1/2

43   

January 28, 2009

Pro Football Computer Simulation League–SIMper Bowl II–January 28, 2009

SIMper Bowl II

January 25, 2009

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Weather: Sunny, Light Wind, 72 Degrees

 

NFC Champions: 1996 Green Bay Packers

AFC Champions: 1998 Denver Broncos

 

How They Got Here

 

Green Bay

12-4-0 Regular Season-NFC North Champions

Playoffs

Defeated 1991 Washington Redskins 31-17

Defeated 1999 St. Louis Rams 34-27

 

Denver

12-4-0 Regular Season AFC West Champions

Playoffs

Defeated 2000 Baltimore Ravens 17-14

Defeated 2007 New England Patriots 31-21

 

Coin Toss

Denver Calls Heads.  Here’s the toss.  It is tails.  Green Bay has won the toss.

 

Brett Favre: We want the ball

John Elway: We’ll kick to the clock

 

1st Quarter

 

Denver set to kick off.  Jason Elam’s kick is high and short.  Desmond Howard catches it at the Packer 11 and returns it just five yards to the 16 before running out of bounds.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ GB 16-Brett Favre fakes the dive to Dorsey Levens and throws the quick out to Mark Chmura.  The pass is complete at the Packer 18.  Chmura turns up field and is pummeled by Steve Atwater at the 20.  Chmura fumbles the ball, and tt is recovered by Neil Smith for the Broncos!!!  TURNOVER

 

Den 1st & 10 @ GB 21-John Elway fakes to Terrell Davis and drops back to pass.  There’s a heavy rush, but the Broncos have a screen pass set up.  Davis cannot catch the pass.  Incomplete.

 

Den 2nd & 10 @ GB 21-Elway gives to Davis running off right tackle.  He’s inside the 20 to the 15 yard line before being stopped by a hoard of green jerseys.

 

Den 3rd & 4 @ GB 15-Elway drops back to pass.  He spots Shannon Sharpe running a post slant pattern to the goal.  Elway’s pass is…..just out of Sharpe’s reach.  Incomplete.

 

Den 4th & 4 @ GB 15-Elam in to attempt a 32 yard field goal.  The ball is down; the kick is up, and it is perfect.  FIELD GOAL. 

 

Denver 3  Green Bay 0 1st Qtr. 13:57   Scoring Drive: 3 plays, 6 yards, 0:51

 

Denver set to kick off.  Elam’s kick is short once again.  Howard fields the ball at the 13 and has a hole.  He’s to the 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, and pushed out at the 40.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ GB 40-Favre tosses to Edgar Bennett running wide left.  He has nowhere to go, and he’s going to be dropped for a loss of 3 by Glenn Cadrez.

 

GB 2nd & 13 @ GB 37-Here’s a quick trap off left guard by Bennett.  He breaks a tackle at the 40 and will get the first down on a 13-yard scamper.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ 50-Favre drops back to pass.  Nobody is open downfield.  He dumps it to William Henderson who will pick up 2 yards.

 

GB 2nd & 8 @ Den 48-Favre drops back and hands to Levens on a draw play.  He has no room and will pick up a yard.

 

GB 3rd & 7 @ Den 47-Here’s another draw play to Bennett.  The Broncos read this one all the way, and Bennett can only gain 1 yard.

 

GB 4th & 6 @ Den 46-Craig Hentrich set to punt.  Here’s the snap.  Hentrich booms it short and high.  The ball bounces at the Denver 15 and rolls to the 5.  It’s picked up by Darrien Gordon at the 5 and returned 3 yards.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ Den 8-Elway gives to Davis running off tackle to the right.  He’s got room to run.  Davis is to the 10, the 15, the 20, and knocked down at the 22 for a 14-yard gain and first down.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ Den 22-Elway drops back to pass and is looking deep to Ed McCaffrey.  He lets it go, but it is too strong and incomplete.

 

Den 2nd & 10 @ Den 22-Elway drops back and gives to Davis on a draw play.  Davis gets back to the line of scrimmage and dives forward for 1 yard.

 

Den 3rd & 9 @ Den 23-Elway drops back to pass, but Green Bay is blitzing.  Elway throws the ball away.

 

Den 4th & 9 @ Den 23-Tom Rouen set to punt for Denver.  He hit it high.  Howard calls for a fair catch and fields the ball at the Green Bay 38.  It’s a punt of 39 yards.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ GB 38-Favre takes a short drop and looks downfield.  Nobody’s open.  He begins to scramble and throws to Bennett, but the pass is wide and incomplete.

 

GB 2nd & 10 @ GB 38-Favre drops back again, but this time it’s a draw play to Levens.  There’s no room to run, and Levens cuts wide getting just one yard before being shoved out of bounds.

 

GB 3rd & 9 @ GB 39-Here’s a quick pitch to Levens.  He’s going to be trapped behind the line.  No!  He breaks loose, but Romanowski has him as he hits the line of scrimmage.  No Gain!

 

GB 4th & 9 @ GB 39-Hentrich is in to punt.  He gets a high spiral, and Gordon catches it at the Bronco 19.  He has a seam.  He’s to the 20, the 25, the 30, and knocked down at the 32.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ Den 32-Elway is back to pass, but here comes Reggie White on a stunt.  White’s got Elway and down he goes for a loss of 6 yards.

 

Den 2nd & 16 @ Den 26-Elway is back to pass again, and the Packers are blitzing.  He has no time to set up.  Elway escapes the initial pressure and runs up the middle getting back to the original line of scrimmage on a gain of 6.

 

Den 3rd & 10 @ Den 32-Here’s a delayed draw to Davis.  He’s going nowhere.  No gain.

 

Den 4th & 10 @ Den 32-Rouen set to punt for Denver.  The punt is a little low and returnable.  Howard takes the ball at the Packer 24 and has room to his left.  He rounds the left side at the 25, 30, 35, 40, and is taken down at the 43.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ GB 43-Favre gives to Bennett on a dive play over right guard.  Bennet picks up a couple before going down.

 

GB 2nd & 8 @ GB 45-Favre fakes to Levens and rolls to his right.  He hits Robert Brooks at Midfield.  Brooks takes the pass and cuts upfield into Bronco territory.  He crosses the 45 to the 40 and cuts back to the middle.  He’s to the 36 before going down for a 19-yard gain.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ Den 36-Here’s the give to Bennett going off tackle to the left side.  He has no hole, but he bulls ahead for 2 yard.

 

GB 2nd & 8 @ Den 34-Favre drops back to pass.  He spots Antonio Freeman open on a deep out route.  His pass is on the mark and Freeman has it at the Denver 18 as he goes out of bounds for a 16-yard gain.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ Den 18-Here’s a quick opener to Bennett, and he has a large hole.  He’s to the 15, the 10, the 5, TOUCHDOWN Packers!

 

GB PAT-Jacke’s point after is GOOD.  Green Bay leads 7-3 with 1:48 remaining in the opening period. 

 

Green Bay 7  Denver 3  1st Qtr. 1:48   Scoring Drive: 5 plays, 57 yard, 2:52

 

Green Bay kicks off.  Jacke’s kick is hauled in at the 3 by Vaughn Hebron.  Hebron is going to be smashed as he crosses the 15 and falls at the 16.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ Den 16-Elway stands immediately and fires a quick in to Sharpe at the 17.  Sharpe eludes the first wave and has plenty of room to run.  He’s to the 20, 25, 30, 35, and knocked down at the 39 for a 23-yard pickup.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ Den 39-Elway’s looking deep over the middle.  Rod Smith is open, and here’s the throw.  It’s just over his outstretched arms and incomplete.

 

Den 2nd & 10 @ Den 39-Elway looks short to Smith this time.  The pass is complete, but Smith is stopped for 1 yard.

 

Den 3rd & 9 @ Den 40-Here’s the draw to Davis.  He crosses the 40 to the 45 and is knocked down at the 46 for a gain of 6.  The clock strikes 0:00, and that’s the end of the first quarter with the score: Green Bay 7  Denver 3.

 

2nd Quarter

 

Den 4th & 3 @ Den 46-Coach Mike Shanahan considers going for it, but he sends Rouen in to punt.  Here’s the punt.  It’s high and bounces at the Packer 15.  The ball rolls down to the 9, where it is downed.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ GB 9-Favre gives to Bennett running up the middle.  He gets 5 yards.

 

GB 2nd & 5 @ GB 14-Levens gets the ball going over right tackle, but he doesn’t get much.  He falls at the 15.

 

GB 3rd & 4 @ GB 15-Here’s the fake to Bennett.  Favre takes a short drop and looks downfield before dumping wide to Bennett.  Bennett crosses the 15 and dives for the first down at the 20.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ GB 20-Favre is back to pass, but here comes Neal Smith.  Smith knocks Favre down for a 7-yard sack,

 

GB 2nd & 17 @ GB 13-Favre gives to Bennett who sweeps around left end.  Bennett has some room to run.  He’s to the 20, 25, and knocked out of bounds at the 26.

 

GB 3rd & 4 @ GB 26-Favre fakes a quick pass and then gives to Levens on a trap up the middle.  He get nowhere and is stopped for no gain.

 

GB 4th & 4 @ GB 26-Hentrich is in to punt.  He skies the ball high and far.  Gordon fields the ball at the Denver 28.  He cuts left and then right.  Gordon crosses the 30 to the 35, where he breaks a tackle and gets to the 41.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ Den 41-Elway hands to Davis up the middle, and Davis can only gain 2 yards.

 

Den 2nd & 8 @ Den 43-Elway takes a quick drop and fires to Sharpe at the 45.  Sharpe eludes one tackle and picks up 6 yards.

 

Den 3rd & 2 @ Den 49-Davis gets the ball up the middle and dives across the 50 to the Packer 49.  The referee calls for the chain gang.  The chain is stretched, and it is a Denver first down.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ GB 49-Davis gets the ball again slanting off right tackle.  He gets by the first wave and picks up 7 yards.

 

Den 2nd & 3 @ GB 42-Elway fakes to Davis and passes to Smith, but the pass is broken up by George Koonce.

 

Den 3rd & 3 @ GB 42-Elway drops back and finds McCaffrey open on a curl route into the Packer 2-deep zone.  McCaffrey holds on to the ball and takes a big hit, but he gains 11 yard and a first down.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ GB 31-Here’s the deep pitch to Davis.  Davis tries to sweep left, but there is no room, so he cuts back and just gets back to the line of scrimmage.

 

Den 2nd & 10 @ GB 31-The Broncos try the same exact play but to the right.  This time, Davis has some running room as he sweeps wide.  He crosses the 30, the 25, the 20, and is run down at the 16 for a 15-yard gain.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ GB 16-Davis gets 6 yards up the middle, but there’s a FLAG on the play.  Denver is penalized 5 yards for illegal procedure.  They only had 6 men on the line.

 

Den 1st & 15 @ GB 21-Howard Griffith is in the game to spell Davis.  Elway gives to Griffith, and he had a hole, but Griffith trips at the line of scrimmage for no gain.

 

Den 2nd & 15 @ GB 21-Derek Loville enters the game, and Elway hands to him.  Loville angles wide and can only pick up 1 yard.

 

Den 3rd & 14 @ GB 20-Elway looking into the end zone for Sharpe, but he’s covered.  Elway throws short to McCaffrey at the 13.  McCaffrey gives ground trying to get wide, and he’s tackled back at the 15 for a 5 yard gain.

 

Den 4th & 9 @ GB 15-Elam comes in for a second field goal attempt.  The ball is down, and the kick is right through the uprights.  FIELD GOAL.

 

Green Bay 7  Denver 6  2nd Qtr. 3:45    Scoring Drive: 11 plays, 49 yards 6:46

 

Elam kicks off for Denver.  Howard takes it at the 8.  He’s to the 10, 15, 20, 25,  and tackled at the 28.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ GB 28-Favre fakes to Levens and passes across the middle of the Bronco zone to Keith Jackson.  Jackson catches the ball at the 35 and runs to the 43.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ GB 43-Bennett gets the ball and sweeps left.  He hits the 45, where he runs out of real estate.

 

GB 2nd & 8 @ GB 45-Favre hands to Levens going inside left tackle.  He breaks one tackle and gets 4 yards.

 

GB 3rd & 4 @ GB 49-Before Favre can get the play off, the clock hits 2:00.  2:00 Warning===Time to get to the fridge and get your favorite beverage and snack food for halftime.

 

GB 3rd & 4 @ GB 49-Favre wants a quick six.  He drops deep and fires the bomb to the end zone for Beebe.  Beebe has a hand on it, but he cannot bring it in.

 

GB 4th & 4 @ GB 49-The Packers keep their offense on the field.  Favre appears to be trying to draw the Broncos offside, but it isn’t working.  Green Bay calls timeout.  Hentrich comes in to punt.  Here’s the kick.  It’s a knuckle ball punt that is going to hit the ground at the 20 and bounce to the 10.  George Coghill is the upback, and he picks up the ball at the 9.  He returns it across the 10 to the 15, the 20, the 25, the 30, and Hentrich makes the touchdown saving tackle at the 34, as the Packers were caught off guard.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ Den 34-Elway has 1:34 to work with.  He’s back to pass and is looking in the left hook zone for Davis who had run a divide pattern.  The pass is tipped and intercepted by Koonce at the 50.  Koonce swings wide to the opposite side of the field.  He’s to the 45, the 40, and the 36 yard line before being stopped.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ Den 36-Favre drops back to pass, and he’s looking deep.  Now, he looks for his next read and spots Mark Chmura open in the middle of the field.  Favre throws a perfect pass, and Chmura catches it at the 26 and picks up an extra yard for a first down.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ Den 25-Favre takes a 3-step drop and passes wide to Jackson.  Jackson catches the ball at the 20 and picks up 2 more yards before getting out of bounds to stop the clock at 1:22.

 

GB 2nd & 3 @ Den 18-Favre tosses the ball wide to William Henderson.  Henderson tries to get to the corner and gives ground.  He’s not going to make it back to the line of scrimmage or get out of bounds, and he takes a 2-yard loss.  Green Bay calls timeout.

 

GB 3rd & 5 @ Den 20-Favre drops back and looks to the end zone.  Jackson is running a flag route and has a little space.  Here’s the pass.  At the last moment, Steve Atwater gets there to bat the ball away.

 

GB 4th & 5 @ Den 20-Jacke comes in for a 37-yard field goal attempt.  The snap is low, but Hentrich gathers it in.  Jacke adjusts and gets away a perfect kick down the middle.  FIELD GOAL

 

Green Bay 10  Denver 6  2nd Qtr. 1:08    Scoring Drive: 4 plays, 16 yards 0:25

 

Jacke kicks off for the Packers.  The ball sails to the 7 where Hebron takes it in.  He’s to the 10, 15, 20, 25, and up to the 30.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ Den 30-Elway still has time to march Denver for a score.  He wants it right away.  He drops back and is looking deep.  There’s a bullet pass 40 yards downfield to Sharpe, but it’s just a bit too strong and incomplete.

 

Den 2nd & 10 @ Den 30-The Packers use a dime package.  Elway gives to Davis on a draw play.  The Packers aren’t fooled, and Davis is forced to give ground in order to get out of bounds for just 1 yard.

 

Den 3rd & 9 @ Den 31-Elway looks for Shannon Sharpe past the first down marker, but he throws the ball away. [NOTE: Sharpe played on both the ’96 Packers and ’98 Broncos.]

 

Den 4th & 9 @ Den 31-Green Bay has 10 defenders on the line and looks to be going after the punt.  Rouen gets the snap and has to hurry.  He shanks a punt that is going to go out of bounds.  The back judge starts moving forward and spots the ball at the Packer 40.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ GB 40-The Packers have one timeour remaining and 32 seconds to work with.  Favre looks downfield and has to dump the ball to Bennett.  Bennett drops the ball.

 

GB 2nd & 10 @ GB 40-Favre gives the ball to Levens on a draw, but there’s nothing there.  Levens picks up a yard, and Green Bay uses its last timeout of the half with 23 seconds on the clock.

 

GB 3rd & 9 @ GB 41-Favre drops back to pass.  Brooks is open around the Denver 40, but Favre’s arm is hit as he tries to pass.  The ball sails high in the air, but no player can get to it before it hits the ground.

 

GB 4th & 9 @ GB 41-Hentrich is forced to punt with 17 seconds left in the half.  Denver appears to be setting up a return.  Hentrich’s punt is high and bounces at the 17 where it rolls backwards and out of bounds at the 20.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ Den 20-Elway has just 6 seconds on the clock.  He drops back and tries the Hail Mary pass to the right side.  McCaffrey gets a finger on it, but three Packers are there to bat the ball away.

 

That’s the end of the first half, with the score: Green Bay 10  Denver 6

 

3rd Quarter

 

Jacke set to kick for Green Bay.  Here’s the kick.  It’s high and comes down at the 5 where Hebron fields it and runs left.  He’s at the 10, 15, 20, 25, and to the 28.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ Den 28-Elway fakes to Davis and passes over the middle to Sharpe, but the ball sails wide.

 

Den 2nd & 10 @ Den 28-Elway gives to Davis slanting off tackle to the left.  He gets by the first wave and crosses the 30 to the 33.

 

Den 3rd & 5 @ Den 33-Elway fakes to Davis and takes a short drop.  Here comes Rod Smith on an end around.  Elway gives him the ball, and the Packers have been fooled.  Smith sweeps wide with plenty of open room.  He cross the 35, the 40, the 45, the 50, and into Green Bay territory at the 47.  Hold the phone!  There’s a flag back in the Bronco backfield.  HOLDING Denver.  The play won’t count.

 

Den 3rd & 15 @ Den 23-The Packers are in a Dime Package, and Denver goes with an empty backfield with Elway in the Shotgun.  Here’s the snap.  Elway appears to be sprinting wide to the left.  Here comes Smith again.  They are going to run the end around again.  This time, there isn’t much room.  Smith is met at the line of scrimmage, but he makes a good move to break free.  He gets to the 30 before being forced out of bounds.

 

Den 4th & 8 @ Den 30-Rouen comes in to punt.  He gets away a rocket.  This one is going to stay in the air for almost five seconds.  Howard signals for a fair catch and hauls it in at the Packer 27.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ GB 27-Favre drops back to pass, but here comes an all-out Bronco Blitz.  Favre tries to scramble to his right, but Trevor Pryce is going to hit him hard at the 18.  Favre loses the ball, and it rolls forward to the 19.  Who recovers?  The referee is in there looking at the pile, and it appears that a green jersey is on the bottom.

 

GB 2nd & 18 @ GB 19-Favre drops back to pass.  The rush is strong once again, but Favre gets rid of the ball quickly.  It’s off  the mark, and Tyrone Braxton has just intercepted the pass at the 31.  He cuts to the middle and has some room.  He’s at the 30, the 25, the 20, the 15, the 10, the 5, and he scores?  No.  The head linesman has marked him out of bounds at the 2.

 

Den 1st & G @ GB 2-Elway drops one step and fires a quick pass to Sharpe.  He can’t find running room and goes down for no gain.

 

Den 2nd & G @ GB 2-Here’s the straight ahead dive to Davis.  He’s up in the air and over for the score.  TOUCHDOWN Denver!

 

Elam comes in for the point after.  The snap and hold are good, and Elam boots it through for the extra point.

 

Denver 13  Green Bay 10  3rd Qtr. 11:33        Scoring Drive: 2 plays, 2 yards 0:47

 

Elam kicks off for Denver.  Howard fields it at the 1.  He runs straight up the middle to the 5, the 10, the 15, the 20, and goes down at the 24.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ GB 24-Favre hands to Bennett going just left of center, but there’s nothing there.  Bennett is dropped for a loss of 1.

 

GB 2nd & 11 @ GB 23-Favre pitches to Levens who is sweeping right.  He get around the corner and crosses the 25 to the 30.  The head linesman marks the ball back at the 29.

 

GB 3rd & 5 @ GB 29-Favre is in the shotgun with Henderson in to his left.  Favre hands to Henderson on the delay.  Henderson has a hole, but he cannot get to it in time.  He gets just 2 yards, and the Packers will have to punt.

 

GB 4th & 3 @ GB 31-Hentrich is back in punt formation, but there’s movement in the line.  Green Bay is penalized 5 yards for illegal procedure.

 

GB 4th & 8 @ GB 26-Hentrich sends a rocket that forces Gordon to backpedal.  Gordon fields it at the Bronco 23.  Gordon heads up the middle across the 25 to the 30 and cuts back to the left.  He gets to the 34 where he is knocked down.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ Den 34-Elway drops back to pass and looks downfield.  Boom!  He never saw Reggie White coming from his blind side.  Elway’s down at the 29 for a 5 yard loss, but he appears to be okay.

 

Den 2nd & 15 @ Den 29-Elway is in the shotgun this time.  He rolls to his left and stops.  He’s going to throw back to the right flat, and Sharpe is open.  Sharpe catches the pass at the 36 and runs forward to the 43.  He’s close to a first down but a little short.

 

Den 3rd & 1 @ Den 43-The Broncos need less than a yard to move the chains.  Elway gives to Davis going off right guard.  He has the yard, and it’s first down Broncos.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ Den 44-Elway pitches to Davis.  Davis is sweeping right and has the corner.  He picks up a quick 5 yards.

 

Den 2nd & 5 @ Den 49-Here’s the straight ahead dive to Loville.  Loville finds a seam and gets to the 50, but the ball has been knocked loose.  Green Bay appears to have recovered on the sideline, but the side judge has ruled the ball out of bounds before possession.  Denver keeps it.

 

Den 3rd & 40 @ 50-Elway fakes to Loville, and he rolls left.  He’s going to cross the first down marker and run out of bounds at the Packer 44.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ GB 44-Elway is looking deep.  McCaffrey is covered by two Packers.  Elway looks for Sharpe, but he’s covered as well.  Elway throws the ball away.

 

Den 2nd & 10 @ GB 44-Elway sprints to the right and throws to McCaffrey, but the ball is knocked away.

 

Den 3rd & 10 @ GB 44-Elway is in the shot gun.  He looks deep to Sharpe, but his throw is high.  Eugene Robinson has intercepted the pass at the Green Bay 32, and he’s sprinting for the left sideline.  He’s at the 35, the 40, the 45, midfield with only Elway to beat.  He eludes Elway, and he’s off to the races.  45, 40, 35, 30, 25, 20, 15, 10, 5, TOUCHDOWN Packers!  That’s a momentum changing play!!!

 

Jacke is in for the PAT.  The ball is down, and the kick is up and good.

 

Green Bay 17  Denver 13  3rd Qtr. 4:36   Drive: 0 plays, 68 yards 0:00

 

Jacke kicks off for Green Bay.  The kick is short and Hebron has to run to the 15 to field it.  He runs to his right and crosses the 20.  Now, he cuts back to his left and has some running room.  He’s at the 25, the 30, the 35, and out of bounds at the 37.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ Den 37-Loville gets the ball on a quick trap up the middle, but there’s not much there.  He gets 1 yard, but there’s a flag down at the 37.  Green Bay is penalized 15 yards for a personal foul grabbing the facemask.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ GB 48-Elway takes a short drop and fired to Sharpe on a quick out route.  Sharpe catches the ball and picks up 5 yards.

 

Den 2nd & 5 @ GB 43-Elway hands to Davis on a quick opener on the right.  He’s got a big hole to run through!  He gets through the line to the 40 and jukes left, avoiding a tackle at the 37.  He cuts back to the right and has some blocking interference.  Nobody’s going to stop him. 30, 25, 20, 15, 10, 5, TOUCHDOWN Broncos!  Terrell Davis has just put Denver ahead once again on a spectacular 43 yard run.

 

Elam enters the game for the point after.  The ball is down, and the kick is up and good.

 

Denver 20  Green Bay 17  3rd Qtr. 3:34     Drive: 3 plays, 48 yards 0:54

 

Elam kicks off for Denver.  The ball bounces at the 10 and rolls to the 4, where Howard has a tough time picking it up.  He gets started late and can only get back to the 14 where he’s bowled over by a host of Broncos in an orange crush.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ GB 14-Favre hands to Bennett running straight ahead.  He has a little room and picks up 5 yards.

 

GB 2nd & 5 @ GB 19-Favre hands the ball to Brooks running to the right of the center.  He hasn’t got a hole and is stopped for no gain.

 

GB 3rd & 5 @ GB 19-Favre is in the shotgun.  Here’s the snap.  Favre’s in trouble as Romanowski is coming fast.  Favre cannot get away, and Romo has him in his grasp for a sack and loss of 8 yards.  There is a flag down on the play.  Denver has been flagged for defensive holding, and the Packers will get an automatic first down at the 24.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ GB 24-Favre gives to Bennett running up the middle.  Bennett gets 3 yards.

 

GB 2nd & 7 @ GB 27-Favre passes wide to Levens at the 28.  Levens has it and turns upfield.  He gets to the 30 and is forced out of bounds at the 33, just short of the marker.

 

GB 3rd & 1 @ GB 33-Favre fakes to Levens and drops back.  He’s looking deep for Antonio Freeman.  The ball is just out of Freeman’s reach at the Denver 28.

 

GB 4th & 1 @ GB 33-Hentrich comes in to punt.  He boots a high one that is going to land at the Denver 25 and take a backward roll to the 33.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ Den 33-Elway fakes to Davis and drops back deep.  Here comes a strong rush.  It’s a screen, and Green Bay has fallen for the trick.  Elway lobs the ball forward to Davis on the bubble screen, and Davis is in the clear again.  He’s to the 35, the 40, the 45, the 50, the Green Bay 45, and knocked out of bounds at the 44 for a gain of 23 yards.  The clock ticked down to 0:00 on the play, and that’s the end of the 3rd Quarter with the score: Denver 20  Green Bay 17

 

4th Quarter

 

Den 1st & 10 @ GB 44-Elway gives the ball to Davis going off tackle to the right.  He breaks through the line and crosses the 40 to the 37.

 

Den 2nd & 3 @ GB 37-Loville gets the ball this time on the sweep to the right.  He gets to the sideline and forces his way forward for 2 yards before going out of bounds.

 

Den 3rd & 1 @ GB35-Elway pitches to Davis running wide to the left.  He has the first down and more.  He crosses the 30 to the 26.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ GB 26-Davis gets the ball again on a trap play to the left, but there’s not much there.  He gets a yard.

 

Den 2nd & 9 @ GB 25-Loville gets this one on a sweep to the left.  He picks up 2 yards before tripping and falling.

 

Den 3rd & 7 @ GB 23-Elway is looking across the middle against the seam in the 2-deep Packer zone.  He fires toward Sharpe, but he’s off target.

 

Den 4th & 7 @ GB 23-Elam comes in to try to give Denver a 6-point lead.  The ball is down, the kick is up, and it’s good.  FIELD GOAL!

 

Denver 23  Green Bay 17 4th qtr. 11:40   Scoring Drive: 7 plays, 44 yards, 4:03

 

Elam kicks off for Denver.  The ball sails to the 5, where Howard takes it on the run this time.  Howard crosses the 10 to the 15, the 20, the 25, and makes the 28 before being stopped.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ GB 28-Favre drops back to pass.  He’s looking for Chmura about 10 yards downfield, but the ball has been tipped and knocked away.

 

GB 2nd & 10 @ GB 28-Favre rolls to his right and has nobody open.  He’s going to run.  He gets back to the line of scrimmage and picks up 2 yards before running out of bounds.

 

GB 3rd & 8 @ GB 30-Here’s a draw play to Henderson.  He’s stopped at the line, but he turns and heads wide to the left.  He’s going to be brought down for a loss of 2 yards.

 

GB 4th & 10 @ GB 28-Hentrich comes in to punt once again.  He gets away a better one this time, and Gordon fields it at the Bronco 30.  He gets 4 yards before he is swarmed under.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ Den 34-Elway fakes to Davis and takes a short roll to the right.  He spots Sharpe open in the deep right out and fires a bullet on target.  Sharpe has it at the Packer 47 before being tackled at the Packer 45 for a gain of 21.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ GB 45-Elway raises and throws a quick pop pass to Smith.  Smith has it at the 40, and he heads to the outside.  He crosses the 35 to the 32 for another Bronco first down.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ GB 32-Davis gets the ball going right, but he just barely gets back to the line of scrimmage.

 

Den 2nd & 10 @ GB 32-Elway takes a 5-step drop and looks to his left.  There’s McCaffrey running a curl pattern.  Elway hits him in the numbers for a gain of 14 and another first down.  The clock rolls past the halfway point of the final period.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ GB 18-Elway fakes to Loville and runs the bootleg to his left.  Wayne Simmons isn’t fooled, and he will sack Elway for a 6-yard loss.

 

Den 2nd & 16 @ GB 24-Elway gives to Davis running wide right.  There’s nowhere to run, and Davis will fall down at the line of scrimmage.

 

Den 3rd & 16 @ GB 24-Elway drops back to pass with a strong Green Bay pass rush coming fast.  Elway dumps to Dwayne Carswell, who picks up 4 yards and stays in bounds.

 

Den 4th & 12 @ GB 20-Elam is in to try to connect on his fourth field goal of the day.  The ball is down, and the kick is up and good.  FIELD GOAL!

 

Denver 26  Green Bay 17  4th Qtr. 4:56   Drive: 7 plays, 46 yards  4:55

 

Elam will kick for Denver.  The Packers need two scores in less than five minutes or else the Broncos will be Sim Champions.  Here’s the kick.  It’s a squibber, and it’s going to roll to the 17 before Travis Jervey fields it.  Jervey crosses the 20 the 25, where two Broncos try to sandwich him.  Jervey pitches the ball backward to Beebe, and Beebe has some running room.  Beebe crosses the 30 and the 35 before being knocked out of bounds at the 39.  The Packers have excellent field position.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ GB 39-Favre is in the shotgun.  Here’s the snap.  Favre drops back a couple steps and looks wide to Freeman.  He’s covered, so Favre dumps to Bennett at the 46.  Bennett shoots through a gap in the Bronco 3-deep zone and crosses midfield to the Denver 41 yard line for a 20 yard gain.  He was unable to get to the sideline, and Green Bay has elected to call a timeout with 4:37 remaining in the game.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ Den 41-Bennett goes in motion wide to the left.  Favre drops back and passes wide to Bennett who had a little interference in front of him.  Bennett breaks a tackle at the 37 and heads down the sideline to the 35, the 30, the 25, and goes down at the 23.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ Den 23-Green Bay goes no huddle.  Favre drops back, but there’s a strong Bronco pass rush.  Favre scrambles and goes down before he can get out of bounds for a 3 yard loss.

 

GB 2nd & 13 @ Den 26-Green Bay stays in a hurry-up offense.  Favre is in the shotgun.  He fires a quick pass to Levens who runs past the line of scrimmage and gets out of bounds to stop the clock at the 20.

 

GB 3rd & 7 @ Den 20-Favre drops back and looks for Freeman at the 10.  The pass is off the mark and incomplete.

 

GB 4th & 7 @ Den 20-Jacke is in to try a 37-yard field goal.  The ball is down, and the kick is up and hooking left.  It’s going to be…………just inside the uprights.  FIELD GOAL. 

 

Denver 26  Green Bay 20  4th Qtr. 3:42   Drive: 5 plays, 41 yards 1:01

 

Will Green Bay try an onside kick with this much time remaining?  It appears they will kick deep.  Here come’s Jacke’s boot, and indeed it is a regular kickoff.  Hebron fields it at the 13 and he has a good wall of support.  He crosses the 20, to the 25, 30, 35, and goes down at the 39.

 

Den 1st & 10 @ Den 39-Green Bay has nine men up near the line of scrimmage.  Elway hands to Davis running straight up the gut.  Five Packers swarm to stop him for no gain.

 

Den 2nd & 10 @ Den 39-Elway gives to Davis again running wide left.  Davis crosses the line of scrimmage and goes down for a 2-yard gain to avoid going out of bounds.

 

Den 3rd & 8 @ Den 41-Green Bay has 10 men up near the line.  Elway gives to Davis again, and Davis manages to stretch out for a 1 yard gain.

 

Den 4th & 7 @ Den 42-Green Bay won’t call timeout here, and the clock will wind down to the 2-minute warning. 

 

Den 4th & 7 @ Den 42 (2:00)-Rouen comes in to punt for Denver.  Green Bay looks to be setting up a return rather than try to block it.  Rouen hits it high and it’s going to hit the ground at the 30 and begin to roll.  The ball bounces down to the 15 before it is downed. 

 

GB 1st & 10 @ GB 15 (1:50)-Green Bay has to go 85 yards in 110 seconds.  Favre is in the shotgun, and Denver is in a Dime defense prevent.  Favre fires a bullet to Chmura at the 22, and Chmura gets another three yards to the 25 for a first down (clock continues to run).

 

GB 1st & 10 @ GB 25 (1:30)-Favre goes without a huddle and spikes the ball to stop the clock.

 

GB 2nd & 10 @ GB 25 (1:27)-Favre drops back and looks across the middle deep to Beebe.  He fires long, but the pass is batted away.

 

GB 3rd & 10 @ GB 25 (1:18)-Favre is in the shotgun and takes the snap.  He throws a dart to Freeman.  The pass is completed at the 33, and Freeman moves forward to the 37, but he cannot get out of bounds.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ GB 37 (1:01)-Favre tries another deep pass across the middle to Jackson.  The ball is overthrown and incomplete.

 

GB 2nd & 10 @ GB 37 (0:51)-Favre is going deep again.  The ball is on target, and Freeman CATCHES IT at the Denver 28.  He moves to the right and picks up another five for a 40-yard gain!  Green Bay takes their second timeout.  Hold onto your seats folks.  This game is going down to the wire.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ Den 23 (0:41)-Favre drops back and tries to hit Levens through the seam of the zone.  The ball is short and incomplete.

 

GB 2nd & 10 @ Den 23 (0:36)-Favre drops back and looks to the goalline for Beebe.  He’s not open, but Favre spots Freeman open across the middle.  The pass is on target, and Freeman takes it in at the 13 and picks up another two yards.  Green Bay calls their final timeout.

 

GB 1st & 10 @ Den 11 (0:27)-Favre drops back and fakes a toss wide to Freeman.  Now he lofts the ball in the back corner to Levens coming out of the backfield.  Levens jumps up and MAKES THE CATCH FOR A TOUCHDOWN!  There’s just 21 seconds left to go in the game.

 

Jacke’s point after is true, and the Packers lead.

 

Green Bay 27  Denver 26  4th Qtr. 0:21   Drive: 9 plays, 85 yards  1:29

 

Jacke is set to kick off for Green Bay.  The Packers have to be alert for a lot of laterals.  Here’s the kick.  Hebron takes it at the 2 and sprints forward quickly to the 5, 10, 15, 20, and goes down at the 21. 

 

Den 1st & 10 @ Den 21 (0:17)-Elway is in the shotgun, and Green Bay has 7 defensive backs in the secondary.  Elway takes the snap and surveys the field.  He fires to Smith at the Denver 40, but the ball is knocked away.

 

Den 2nd & 10 @ Den 21 (0:12)-Elway looks deep right, but there’s nobody open.  He fires quickly to McCaffrey on the deep left, and McCaffrey makes a great catch at midfield.  He runs to the Packer 43 and steps out of bounds..

 

Den 1st & 10 @ GB 43 (0:06)-Denver has three receivers wide to the right.  Elway is in the shotgun.  Here’s the snap.  Sharpe cuts into the middle of the field at the Packer 25, but Elway’s pass is a little early and incomplete.  There’s just one tick left on the clock.

 

Den 2nd & 10 @ GB 43 (0:01)-Elam is in to try a 60-yard field goal on the game’s final play.  He has a strong enough leg.  Okay, here we go.  The snap is good, and the ball is down.  The kick is on its way.  It definitely has the distance, but will it hook back in the uprights.  The ball reaches the back of the end zone, and it is…………..WIDE LEFT and NO GOOD.  The 1996 Green Bay Packers are the Simper Bowl Champions!!!!!

 

FINAL SCORE: 1996 GREEN BAY PACKERS  27  1998 DENVER BRONCOS  26

 

And with that, we wait anxiously for Sunday’s real thing in Tampa.  I’ll have a preview of the Super Bowl on Friday afternoon.

January 19, 2009

Pro Football Computer Simulation League Conference Championship Games–January 19, 2009

Pro Football Computer Simulation League Playoffs

Conference Championships

 

The third round of the 2009 Pro Football Computer Simulation League Playoffs are in the books.  In this round of coverage, I will reveal the scores of the games, the statistics, and how the scoring happened.  In the Simper Bowl next week, I will actually list the play-by-play.

 

NFC

 

1996 Green Bay Packers    34

1999 St. Louis Rams           27

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1999 Stl

7

6

14

0

 

27

1996 GB

14

3

10

7

 

34

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stl

Stat

GB

 

 

 

 

19

FD

21

 

 

 

 

29-107

Rush-Yds

33-126

 

 

 

 

246

Pass Yds

266

 

 

 

 

19-31-1

Passes

20-31-1

 

 

 

 

2-15

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

5-42.8

Punt

4-44.0

 

 

 

 

2-19

PR

3-46

 

 

 

 

6-52

Pen

7-55

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

0-0

 

 

 

 

62

Play

65

 

 

 

 

338

Tot Yds

385

 

 

 

Stl: Bruce 19 yd. pass from Warner, Wilkins Kick 1st Qtr. 11:48

GB: Levens 3 yd run, Jacke Kick 1st Qtr. 8:58

GB: Levens 4 yd. run, Jacke Kick 1st Qtr. 2:33

Stl: Wilkins 42 yd. FG 2nd Qtr. 9:11

GB: Jacke 46 yd. FG 2nd Qtr. 5:09

Stl: Wilkins 39 yd. FG 2nd Qtr. 0:06

Stl: Holt 31 yd. pass from Warner, Wilkins Kick 3rd Qtr. 12:28

GB: Jacke 48 yd. FG 3rd Qtr. 8:17

GB: Freeman 43 yd. pass from Favre, Jacke Kick 3rd Qtr. 6:13

Stl: Faulk 9 yd. run, Wilkins Kick 3rd Qtr. 2:27

GB: Jackson 12 yd. pass from Favre, Jacke Kick 4th Qtr. 1:19

 

 

1998 Denver Broncos                    31

2007 New England Patriots        21

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 Den

3

7

14

7

 

31

2007 NE

14

0

7

0

 

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Den

Stat

NE

 

 

 

 

22

FD

20

 

 

 

 

29-142

Rush-Yds

27-97

 

 

 

 

235

Pass Yds

283

 

 

 

 

19-30-0

Passes

21-37-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

3-22

 

 

 

 

4-48.8

Punt

5-34.4

 

 

 

 

1-7

PR

3-21

 

 

 

 

4-35

Pen

9-79

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

59

Play

67

 

 

 

 

377

Tot Yds

358

 

 

 

NE: Moss 18 yd. pass from Brady, Gostkowski Kick 1st Qtr. 13:02

NE: Moss 16 yd. pass from Brady, Gostkowski Kick 1st Qtr. 9:12

Den: Elam 50 yd. FG 1st Qtr. 2:56

Den: Davis 22 yd. run, Elam Kick 2nd Qtr. 6:11

NE: Morris 2 yd. run, Gostkowski Kick, 3rd Qtr. 10:00

Den: Sharpe 14 yd. pass from Elway, Elam Kick 3rd Qtr. 6:34

Den: Burns 4 yd. blocked punt return, Elam Kick 3rd Qtr. 1:21

Den: Davis 4 yd. run, Elam Kick 4th Qtr. 9:47

 

Simper Bowl II

 

The 1998 Denver Broncos will face the 1996 Green Bay Packers in Simper Bowl II next week.  Look for the play-by-play action to be posted some time next Monday, January 26, 2009.

 

In Simper Bowl I, the 1967 Oakland Raiders defeated the 1968 Dallas Cowboys to win the inaugural championship in the Pro Football Computer Simulation League.

January 12, 2009

Pro Football Computer Simulation League Playoffs: Round 2–January 12, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation League Playoffs

Round Two

 

The second round of the 2009 Pro Football Computer Simulation League Playoffs are in the books.  In this round of coverage, I will reveal the scores of the games, the statistics, and how the scoring happened.  In the Simper Bowl, I will actually list the play-by-play.

 

NFC

 

1999 St. Louis Rams           34

1998 Minnesota Vikings     24

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1999 Stl

10

7

14

3

 

34

1998 Min

3

14

0

7

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stl

Stat

Min

 

 

 

 

24

FD

19

 

 

 

 

24-102

Rush-Yds

19-55

 

 

 

 

353

Pass Yds

289

 

 

 

 

26-42-0

Passes

25-44-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

2-13

 

 

 

 

3-43.3

Punt

5-42.6

 

 

 

 

2-19

PR

1-11

 

 

 

 

6-51

Pen

9-78

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

66

Play

65

 

 

 

 

455

Tot Yds

331

 

 

 

Stl-Faulk 4 yd. run, Wilkins Kick 1st Qtr. 9:42

Stl-Wilkins 41 yd. FG, 1st Qtr. 4:37

Min-Anderson 39 yd. FG 1st Qtr. 1:11

Min-Hoard 4 yd. run, Anderson Kick 2nd Qtr. 10:53

Min-Moss 17 yd. pass from Cunningham, Anderson Kick 2nd Qtr. 5:09

Stl-Hakim 44 yd. pass from Warner, Wilkins Kick 2nd Qtr. 1:26

Stl-Faulk 11 yd. pass from Warner, Wilkins Kick 3rd Qtr. 7:44

Stl-Bruce 14 yd. pass from Warner, Wilkins Kick 3rd Qtr. 0:07

Min-Cunningham 1 yd. run, Anderson Kick 4th Qtr. 9:18

Stl-Wilkins 40 yd. FG 4th Qtr. 4:39

 

 

1996 Green Bay Packers             31

1991 Washington Redskins        17

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1996 GB

14

7

3

7

 

31

1991 Was

0

0

14

3

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GB

Stat

Was

 

 

 

 

17

FD

15

 

 

 

 

31-109

Rush-Yds

32-97

 

 

 

 

201

Pass Yds

187

 

 

 

 

17-27-1

Passes

16-29-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

3-22

 

 

 

 

6-44.0

Punt

7-43.6

 

 

 

 

4-112

PR

3-47

 

 

 

 

6-50

Pen

8-72

 

 

 

 

1-1

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

58

Play

64

 

 

 

 

310

Tot Yds

262

 

 

 

GB-Levens 5 yd. run, Jacke Kick 1st Qtr. 8:19

GB-Howard 58 yd. punt return, Jacke Kick 1st Qtr. 2:15

GB-Freeman 22 yd. pass from Favre, Jacke Kick 2nd Qtr. 5:57

GB-Jacke 41 yd. FG 3rd Qtr. 12:10

Was-Monk 9 yd. pass from Rypien, Lohmiller Kick 3rd Qtr. 8:32

Was-Riggs 6 yd. run, Lohmiller Kick 3rd Qtr. 2:28

Was-Lohmiller 44 yd. FG 4th Qtr. 10:04

GB-Freeman 19 yd. pass from Favre, Jacke Kick 4th Qtr. 6:29

 

 

2007 New England Patriots        34

2000 Tennessee Titans                17

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2000 Ten

3

7

7

0

 

17

2007 NE

10

3

14

7

 

34

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ten

Stat

NE

 

 

 

 

10

FD

22

 

 

 

 

24-78

Rush-Yds

37-184

 

 

 

 

146

Pass Yds

277

 

 

 

 

13-26-2

Passes

24-37-0

 

 

 

 

1-7

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

9-42.4

Punt

4-41.8

 

 

 

 

2-23

PR

5-67

 

 

 

 

10-100

Pen

6-50

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

51

Play

74

 

 

 

 

217

Tot Yds

461

 

 

 

Ten-Del Greco 47 yd. FG 1st Qtr. 11:18

NE-Welker 16 yd. pass from Brady, Gostkowski Kick 1st Qtr. 8:32

NE-Gostkowski 37 yd. FG 1st Qtr. 4:41

Ten-George 2 yd. run, Del Greco Kick 2nd Qtr. 9:36

NE-Gostkowski 44 yd. FG 2nd Qtr. 0:00

Ten-Mason 12 yd. pass from McNair, Del Greco Kick 3rd Qtr. 9:52

NE-Hobbs 97 yd. kick return, Gostkowski Kick 3rd Qtr. 9:37

NE-Maroney 23 yd. run, Gostkowski Kick 3rd Qtr. 2:17

NE-Moss 21 yd. pass from Brady, Gostkowski Kick 4th Qtr. 8:11

 

 

1998 Denver Broncos          17

2000 Baltimore Ravens      14

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2000 Bal

0

7

7

0

 

14

1998 Den

3

0

7

7

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bal

Stat

Den

 

 

 

 

13

FD

15

 

 

 

 

35-108

Rush-Yds

37-144

 

 

 

 

133

Pass Yds

179

 

 

 

 

12-25-2

Passes

15-24-1

 

 

 

 

2-17

Sacks

1-6

 

 

 

 

8-40.6

Punt

6-43.8

 

 

 

 

2-13

PR

5-47

 

 

 

 

9-90

Pen

6-40

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

62

Play

62

 

 

 

 

224

Tot Yds

317

 

 

 

Den-Elam 53 yd. FG 1st Qtr. 3:37

Bal-Lewis 8 yd. run, Stover Kick 2nd Qtr. 5:18

Den-Davis 27 yd. run, Elam Kick 3rd Qtr. 9:50

Bal-Lewis 3 yd. run, Stover Kick 3rd Qtr. 5:06

Den-Sharpe 16 yd. pass from Elway, Elam Kick 4th Qtr. 1:17

 

Conference Championship Schedule

 

1996 Green Bay Packers             @       1999 St. Louis Rams

2007 New England Patriots        @      1998 Denver Broncos

 

Look for the results of these games to be posted Monday, January 19th after 12 PM EST.

December 29, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation: Week 17–December 29, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation

Week 17-December 28, 2008

 

The regular season of year two in the Pro Football Computer Simulation League has now concluded with the final week of games simulated Sunday evening.

 

The playoffs will begin next week, and I have included the playoff schedule following this week’s recaps.

 

1981 Cincinnati  31  2003 Kansas City  21

Pete Johnson rushed for 137 yards and two scores, and Ken Anderson passed for two others, as the Bengals finished with a winning record, but just barely missed out on the 6th playoff berth in the AFC.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1981 Cin

10

0

14

7

 

31

2003 KC

0

14

0

7

 

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cin

Stat

KC

 

 

 

 

19

FD

17

 

 

 

 

36-154

Rush-Yds

32-115

 

 

 

 

192

Pass Yds

211

 

 

 

 

16-27-0

Passes

19-34-1

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

5-42.4

Punt

6-43.3

 

 

 

 

2-19

PR

3-26

 

 

 

 

6-40

Pen

5-51

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

0-0

 

 

 

 

63

Play

66

 

 

 

 

346

Tot Yds

326

 

 

 

1999 St. Louis  27  1998 Atlanta  17

Kurt Warner passed for two touchdowns, and the Rams’ defense forced Atlanta into three turnovers in St. Louis territory, as the Rams earned home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 Atl

3

0

0

14

 

17

1999 Stl

10

3

7

7

 

27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Atl

Stat

Stl

 

 

 

 

16

FD

22

 

 

 

 

32-121

Rush-Yds

33-129

 

 

 

 

158

Pass Yds

294

 

 

 

 

13-25-2

Passes

21-34-1

 

 

 

 

2-14

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

6-41.8

Punt

4-42.8

 

 

 

 

2-13

PR

3-51

 

 

 

 

7-68

Pen

5-35

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

59

Play

68

 

 

 

 

265

Tot Yds

416

 

 

 

2007 New England 38  1990 Buffalo  17

Tom Brady completed his first 14 passes and finished the day with 4 TD tosses, as the Patriots topped the 500 point mark for the season.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1990 Buf

0

7

3

7

 

17

2007 NE

14

10

7

7

 

38

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Buf

Stat

NE

 

 

 

 

15

FD

24

 

 

 

 

18-55

Rush-Yds

33-128

 

 

 

 

203

Pass Yds

335

 

 

 

 

18-31-2

Passes

26-36-0

 

 

 

 

3-23

Sacks

1-5

 

 

 

 

6-40.5

Punt

2-39.5

 

 

 

 

0-0

PR

2-43

 

 

 

 

7-55

Pen

6-40

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

52

Play

70

 

 

 

 

235

Tot Yds

458

 

 

 

1996 Green Bay  34  1991 Detroit  14

All season long, the Packers relied on a strong offense to outscore opponents, but in clinching the NFC North, it was the defense that led the way.  The green and gold stop troops held Barry Sanders to 71 yards rushing on 18 attempts; the Packer front line recorded two sacks on crucial third down plays; and they intercepted two passes that set up a touchdown and field goal.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1996 GB

13

7

14

0

 

34

1991 Det

0

0

7

7

 

14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GB

Stat

Det

 

 

 

 

20

FD

16

 

 

 

 

34-149

Rush-Yds

26-110

 

 

 

 

289

Pass Yds

167

 

 

 

 

22-35-1

Passes

15-28-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

2-15

 

 

 

 

5-47.0

Punt

6-43.7

 

 

 

 

3-79

PR

2-14

 

 

 

 

5-44

Pen

4-33

 

 

 

 

2-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

69

Play

56

 

 

 

 

438

Tot Yds

262

 

 

 

2005 Indianapolis 30  2000 Tennessee  16

Peyton Manning completed three touchdown passes to Marvin Harrison, as the Colts knocked off the Titans to claim the final AFC playoff berth.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2005 Ind

14

10

3

3

 

30

2000 Ten

3

3

3

7

 

16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ind

Stat

Ten

 

 

 

 

23

FD

14

 

 

 

 

41-172

Rush-Yds

25-79

 

 

 

 

257

Pass Yds

155

 

 

 

 

19-27-0

Passes

13-28-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

2-19

 

 

 

 

4-41.8

Punt

7-43.9

 

 

 

 

3-26

PR

2-77

 

 

 

 

5-45

Pen

7-62

 

 

 

 

2-2

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

68

Play

55

 

 

 

 

429

Tot Yds

215

 

 

 

2000 Baltimore  20  1999 Jacksonville  10

The Ravens averaged just 14 points all season, but their defense yielded just 13.  Sunday, Baltimore held Jacksonville to just 72 yards and four first downs through the first three quarters and will enter the playoffs with the top defense in the league.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2000 Bal

3

7

10

0

 

20

1999 Jac

0

3

0

7

 

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bal

Stat

Jac

 

 

 

 

16

FD

8

 

 

 

 

42-177

Rush-Yds

27-47

 

 

 

 

129

Pass Yds

138

 

 

 

 

11-21-0

Passes

12-27-3

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

5-39

 

 

 

 

6-42.3

Punt

8-41.5

 

 

 

 

5-69

PR

3-22

 

 

 

 

8-82

Pen

6-47

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

63

Play

59

 

 

 

 

306

Tot Yds

146

 

 

 

1985 Chicago  27  2007 Houston  0

The Bears’ defense kept the Texans on their side of the field all day and posted the shutout, while Walter Payton rushed for 182 yards and two touchdowns.  Chicago finished in a three-way tie for first in the NFC North, but the Packers won the tiebreaker.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2007 Hou

0

0

0

0

 

0

1985 Chi

7

3

7

10

 

27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hou

Stat

Chi

 

 

 

 

6

FD

24

 

 

 

 

11-19

Rush-Yds

56-242

 

 

 

 

153

Pass Yds

173

 

 

 

 

13-29-2

Passes

11-19-0

 

 

 

 

7-57

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

9-38.8

Punt

5-44.6

 

 

 

 

1-11

PR

6-74

 

 

 

 

6-55

Pen

7-70

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

47

Play

75

 

 

 

 

115

Tot Yds

415

 

 

 

2002 Tampa Bay  26  2000 Oakland  10

The Buccaneers played a solid game for four quarters, as the offense held onto the ball for almost 36 minutes, and the defense held Oakland at bay.  With the win, Tampa Bay clinched the NFC South Division.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2002 TB

3

3

6

14

 

26

2000 Oak

0

7

3

0

 

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TB

Stat

Oak

 

 

 

 

20

FD

13

 

 

 

 

28-103

Rush-Yds

30-89

 

 

 

 

266

Pass Yds

182

 

 

 

 

19-35-1

Passes

13-28-1

 

 

 

 

1-7

Sacks

2-19

 

 

 

 

6-43.2

Punt

7-45.4

 

 

 

 

4-51

PR

2-15

 

 

 

 

5-38

Pen

9-90

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

64

Play

60

 

 

 

 

362

Tot Yds

252

 

 

 

2005 Pittsburgh  27  1987 Cleveland  24

Willie Parker ran for 103 yards, and Chris Hope returned a Bernie Kosar interception 59 yards for a game-clinching score, as the Steelers came from behind to win.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2005 Pit

0

3

14

10

 

27

1987 Cle

7

7

3

7

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pit

Stat

Cle

 

 

 

 

19

FD

18

 

 

 

 

31-143

Rush-Yds

16-59

 

 

 

 

187

Pass Yds

341

 

 

 

 

15-25-1

Passes

27-48-2

 

 

 

 

2-12

Sacks

3-25

 

 

 

 

5-41.6

Punt

5-40.0

 

 

 

 

2-17

PR

2-23

 

 

 

 

7-60

Pen

6-52

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

58

Play

67

 

 

 

 

318

Tot Yds

375

 

 

 

1998 Minnesota  27  1986 New York Giants  17

Cris Carter and Randy Moss both topped 100 receiving yards, as the Vikings kept pace in the NFC North with Chicago and Green Bay.  The Giants were eliminated from the playoffs with the loss.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 Min

3

14

7

3

 

27

1986 NYG

7

0

7

3

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Min

Stat

NYG

 

 

 

 

19

FD

18

 

 

 

 

36-137

Rush-Yds

29-111

 

 

 

 

242

Pass Yds

238

 

 

 

 

16-28-1

Passes

15-29-2

 

 

 

 

1-8

Sacks

2-21

 

 

 

 

5-42.8

Punt

7-42.7

 

 

 

 

4-57

PR

3-34

 

 

 

 

8-78

Pen

6-45

 

 

 

 

1-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

65

Play

60

 

 

 

 

371

Tot Yds

328

 

 

 

1987 New Orleans  28  1996 Carolina  23

Bobby Hebert passed for 201 yards and three touchdowns in the final period, as the Saints came from 16 points down to win and edge out the Panthers for third place in the NFC South.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1987 NO

0

7

0

21

 

28

1996 Car

14

6

3

0

 

23

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NO

Stat

Car

 

 

 

 

23

FD

15

 

 

 

 

21-78

Rush-Yds

26-88

 

 

 

 

401

Pass Yds

170

 

 

 

 

29-51-1

Passes

14-26-1

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

1-9

 

 

 

 

6-43.5

Punt

6-34.7

 

 

 

 

4-69

PR

2-17

 

 

 

 

4-25

Pen

7-50

 

 

 

 

3-3

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

72

Play

53

 

 

 

 

479

Tot Yds

249

 

 

 

2004 Philadelphia  27  1992 Dallas  21

Donovan McNabb ran for 77 yards and two touchdowns, and passed for another, as the Eagles knocked Dallas out of the playoffs.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2004 Phi

3

7

10

7

 

27

1992 Dal

0

7

14

0

 

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Phi

Stat

Dal

 

 

 

 

19

FD

18

 

 

 

 

31-116

Rush-Yds

35-143

 

 

 

 

223

Pass Yds

168

 

 

 

 

17-30-1

Passes

14-25-1

 

 

 

 

1-7

Sacks

2-16

 

 

 

 

6-42.7

Punt

5-38.6

 

 

 

 

1-(-2)

PR

4-38

 

 

 

 

5-40

Pen

11-115

 

 

 

 

2-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

62

Play

62

 

 

 

 

332

Tot Yds

295

 

 

 

 

1984 Miami  31  1998 New York Jets  21

Dan Marino topped 5,000 yards passing and 40 touchdowns for the season, as the Dolphins evened their record for the season.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 NYJ

6

8

7

0

 

21

1984 Mia

14

7

10

0

 

31

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NYJ

Stat

Mia

 

 

 

 

16

FD

25

 

 

 

 

24-91

Rush-Yds

22-60

 

 

 

 

221

Pass Yds

403

 

 

 

 

13-25-0

Passes

31-52-2

 

 

 

 

1-6

Sacks

3-20

 

 

 

 

6-41.8

Punt

5-47.6

 

 

 

 

3-41

PR

2-30

 

 

 

 

8-82

Pen

5-35

 

 

 

 

2-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

50

Play

77

 

 

 

 

306

Tot Yds

443

 

 

 

2005 Seattle  24  1998 Arizona  7

In a game with little or nothing on the line, Shaun Alexander topped the 1,500 yard rushing mark, as the Seahawks cruised to the victory.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 Ari

0

0

7

0

 

7

2005 Sea

0

7

10

7

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ari

Stat

Sea

 

 

 

 

12

FD

19

 

 

 

 

26-77

Rush-Yds

34-174

 

 

 

 

172

Pass Yds

157

 

 

 

 

18-37-3

Passes

14-24-0

 

 

 

 

4-31

Sacks

1-6

 

 

 

 

8-43.4

Punt

6-42.7

 

 

 

 

3-22

PR

5-81

 

 

 

 

5-38

Pen

6-44

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

67

Play

59

 

 

 

 

218

Tot Yds

325

 

 

 

1998 Denver  21  2006 San Diego  17

With the AFC West Division title up for grabs, Terrell Davis and LaDainian Tomlinson put on a show for the simulated audience.  Davis rushed for 152 yard and two touchdowns, while Tomlinson rushed for 121 yard and two touchdowns.  The game-winner for the Broncos came when Trevor Pryce sacked Phillip Rivers and forced a fumble, which Rod Smith recovered and returned 39 yards for the score.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2006 SD

3

7

7

0

 

17

1998 Den

7

0

14

0

 

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SD

Stat

Den

 

 

 

 

15

FD

17

 

 

 

 

30-137

Rush-Yds

39-171

 

 

 

 

133

Pass Yds

186

 

 

 

 

12-22-1

Passes

17-25-0

 

 

 

 

2-13

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

7-41.9

Punt

6-43.5

 

 

 

 

4-54

PR

5-68

 

 

 

 

6-52

Pen

6-50

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

54

Play

64

 

 

 

 

257

Tot Yds

357

 

 

 

1984 San Francisco  27  1991 Washington  24

Matt Cavanaugh, subbing for the injured Joe Montana, came into the game in the fourth quarter and tossed touchdown passes to Freddie Solomon and Dwight Clark, as the 49ers erased an 11-point deficit to beat the Redskins.  Washington still won the NFC East thanks to losses by the Cowboys and Giants.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1984 SF

10

0

3

14

 

27

1991 Was

7

7

3

7

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SF

Stat

Was

 

 

 

 

22

FD

18

 

 

 

 

29-121

Rush-Yds

32-119

 

 

 

 

267

Pass Yds

209

 

 

 

 

23-38-1

Passes

16-27-1

 

 

 

 

1-5

Sacks

2-13

 

 

 

 

6-43.0

Punt

6-44.3

 

 

 

 

3-22

PR

5-51

 

 

 

 

5-30

Pen

4-37

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

68

Play

61

 

 

 

 

383

Tot Yds

315

 

 

 

Final Regular Season Standings

Pro Football Computer Simulation League

National Football Conference

East Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1991 Washington Redskins

9

7

0

327

259

102.0

1992 Dallas Cowboys

9

7

0

328

331

99.4

1986 New York Giants

8

8

0

266

238

100.5

2004 Philadelphia Eagles

6

10

0

283

305

97.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1996 Green Bay Packers

12

4

0

481

259

115.6

1998 Minnesota Vikings

12

4

0

462

314

111.8

1985 Chicago Bears

12

4

0

344

218

110.1

1991 Detroit Lions

3

13

0

277

440

94.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

9

7

0

313

273

103.2

1998 Atlanta Falcons

8

8

0

304

390

96.7

1987 New Orleans Saints

7

9

0

321

322

101.6

1996 Carolina Panthers

6

10

0

323

389

96.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1999 St. Louis Rams

12

4

0

481

363

105.8

1984 San Francisco 49ers

10

6

0

421

330

103.7

2005 Seattle Seahawks

7

9

0

308

402

94.7

1998 Arizona Cardinals

2

14

0

212

472

84.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

American Football Conference

East Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2007 New England Patriots

11

5

0

530

360

108.6

1984 Miami Dolphins

8

8

0

470

498

97.3

1990 Buffalo Bills

7

9

0

415

397

99.7

1998 New York Jets

7

9

0

330

402

95.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2000 Baltimore Ravens

13

3

0

230

206

99.2

1981 Cincinnati Bengals

9

7

0

328

310

98.5

1987 Cleveland Browns

4

12

0

267

386

92.0

2005 Pittsburgh Steelers

3

13

0

237

323

94.0

           

 

South Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2000 Tennessee Titans

13

3

0

362

192

109.6

2005 Indianapolis Colts

9

7

0

407

382

102.9

1999 Jacksonville Jaguars

5

11

0

282

359

97.0

2007 Houston Texans

4

12

0

301

470

91.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1998 Denver Broncos

12

4

0

465

324

106.7

2006 San Diego Chargers

10

6

0

380

332

102.0

2000 Oakland Raiders

6

10

0

338

383

96.4

2003 Kansas City Chiefs

3

13

0

348

523

90.2

 

 

Pro Football Computer Simulation League Playoffs

 

NFC Seedings

1. 1999 St. Louis Rams

2. 1996 Green Bay Packers

3. 1991 Washington Redskins

4. 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

5. 1985 Chicago Bears

6. 1998 Minnesota Vikings

 

AFC Seedings

1. 2000 Tennessee Titans

2. 2000 Baltimore Ravens

3. 1998 Denver Broncos

4. 2007 New England Patriots

5. 2006 San Diego Chargers

6. 2005 Indianapolis Colts

 

First Round Schedule

 

1998 Minnesota Vikings at 1991 Washington Redskins

1985 Chicago Bears at 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2005 Indianapolis Colts at 1998 Denver Broncos

2006 San Diego Chargers at 2007 New England Patriots

 

Look here next Monday, January 5, 2009, for the results of the first round of the playoffs.  

 

Coming January 2, 2009: the results from the College Football Simulated Playoff semi-final round games-Southern Cal vs. Oklahoma and Florida vs. Texas.

December 26, 2008

PiRate Ratings Week 17 NFL Previews: December 28, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 17

Still Much To Be Decided

 

It seems like the end of the NFL season has come quickly this year.  Maybe it seems that way because last season coincided with the Presidential election that seemed to last forever.

 

Unfortunately, the end of this season coincides with too many holiday plans, and this preview will be abbreviated.  I will list all the playoff possibilities in this article in addition to the standings, ratings, and games.  I won’t list an in-depth game by game preview or make picks due to those time limitations.

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

Current NFL Standings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New York

12

3

0

408

274

108.60

107.65

107.11

2

Dallas

9

6

0

356

321

102.49

103.67

103.29

2

Philadelphia

8

6

1

372

283

106.53

105.48

103.26

2

Washington

8

7

0

241

269

98.55

99.31

99.83

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Minnesota

9

6

0

359

314

104.06

103.81

103.64

2

Chicago

9

6

0

351

319

102.96

101.42

102.34

2

Green Bay

5

10

0

388

359

103.77

101.48

98.91

2

Detroit

0

15

0

247

486

86.86

88.16

86.27

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Carolina

11

4

0

381

298

106.14

105.11

106.11

2

Atlanta

10

5

0

360

298

105.19

104.46

105.79

2

Tampa Bay

9

6

0

337

292

104.06

102.01

102.68

2

New Orleans

8

7

0

432

360

104.61

104.52

102.09

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Arizona

8

7

0

393

405

97.60

97.33

99.25

3

San Francisco

6

9

0

312

357

94.23

95.55

96.42

3

Seattle

4

11

0

273

358

92.89

94.36

94.11

3

St. Louis

2

13

0

205

434

84.00

86.47

86.56

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Miami

10

5

0

321

300

98.73

99.42

102.29

2

New England

10

5

0

397

309

103.21

104.76

105.46

2

New York

9

6

0

388

332

100.62

99.48

100.88

2

Buffalo

7

8

0

336

329

96.92

96.82

98.41

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Pittsburgh

11

4

0

316

223

108.32

107.71

106.47

2

Baltimore

10

5

0

358

237

108.82

107.90

106.01

3

Cleveland

4

11

0

232

319

95.34

94.57

92.24

2

Cincinnati

3

11

1

188

358

92.20

93.93

93.29

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Tennessee

13

2

0

375

211

110.38

109.14

108.97

2

Indianapolis

11

4

0

354

298

104.55

104.95

105.76

2

Houston

7

8

0

335

370

98.63

98.85

99.16

3

Jacksonville

5

10

0

295

340

97.86

97.78

97.59

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Denver

8

7

0

349

396

95.68

96.24

98.05

2

San Diego

7

8

0

387

326

103.66

103.18

102.23

2

Oakland

4

11

0

232

364

91.06

92.37

93.35

2

Kansas City

2

13

0

285

424

91.49

92.05

92.17

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 The Playoffs Scenarios

NFC Already in Playoffs

New York Giants: Clinched #1 Seed & home field advantage

Carolina: Clinched a playoff spot

Atlanta: Clinched a playoff spot

Arizona: Clinched West Division and will play on first weekend of the playoffs

 

NFC Scenarios

NFC EAST

DALLAS

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus a Chicago loss or tie and a Tampa Bay loss

C. A tie plus a Minnesota loss or tie and a Tampa Bay loss

D. A tie plus a Chicago loss and a Tampa Bay tie

E. A tie plus a Minnesota loss and a Tampa Bay tie

 

PHILADELPHIA

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus losses by Tampa Bay and Minnesota

B. A win plus losses by Tampa Bay and Chicago

 

NFC NORTH

MINNESOTA

Clinches Division with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus Chicago loss or tie

C. A Chicago loss

 

CHICAGO

Clinches Division with:

A. A win plus a Minnesota loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Minnesota loss

 

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Minnesota win and losses or ties by both Dallas and Tampa Bay

B. A tie plus losses by both Dallas and Tampa Bay

 

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA has already clinched a playoff spot

Clinches Division and First Round Bye with:

A. A win plus a Carolina loss

 

CAROLINA has already clinched a playoff spot

Clinches Division and First Round Bye with:

A. A win or tie

B. An Atlanta loss or tie

 

TAMPA BAY

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Dallas loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Dallas loss and Minnesota loss or tie

C. A tie plus a Dallas loss and a Chicago loss or tie

D. A tie plus a Dallas tie and a Minnesota tie and a Chicago win or tie

E. A tie plus a Dallas tie and a Chicago tie and a Minnesota win or tie

 

AFC Already in Playoffs

Tennessee: Clinched #1 seed & home field advantage

Pittsburgh: Clinched division & first round bye

 

AFC Scenarios

AFC EAST

The AFC East Division Winner will play on the first weekend of the playoffs

 

MIAMI

Can clinch the Division with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus a New England loss or tie

 

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A tie plus a Baltimore loss

 

NEW ENGLAND

Can clinch the Division with:

A. A win plus a Miami loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Miami loss

 

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Baltimore loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Baltimore loss

 

NEW YORK JETS

Can clinch the Division with:

A. A win plus a New England loss

 

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Baltimore loss

 

AFC NORTH

(Pittsburgh has already won the division and secured a first-round bye as the #2 seed)

 

BALTIMORE

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus a Miami loss or tie

C. A tie plus a New England loss or tie

D. A New England loss

 

AFC SOUTH

Tennessee has clinched division and the #1 seed, while Indianapolis has clinched a Wildcard

 

AFC WEST

DENVER plays At SAN DIEGO.  The winner of this game wins the Division.  It the game ends in a tie, then Denver wins the Division.  The Division winner will play on the first weekend of the playoffs.

 

If The Season Ended Today

NFC Seedings

1. New York Giants

2. Carolina

3. Minnesota

4. Arizona

5. Atlanta

6. Dallas

 

Dallas would play at Minnesota and Atlanta would play at Arizona.  The higher remaining seed would then play at Carolina and the weaker remaining seed would play at the New York Giants

 

AFC Seedings

1. Tennessee

2. Pittsburgh

3. Miami

4. Denver

5. Indianapolis

6. Baltimore

 

Baltimore would play at Miami and Indianapolis would play at Denver.  The higher remaining seed would then play at Pittsburgh and the weaker remaining seed would play at Tennessee

 

Here Is My Best Guess As To How The Season Will End

 

In the NFC, Philadelphia will take advantage of home field advantage and a revenge factor and defeat Dallas.

 

Atlanta will dismiss St. Louis with ease.

 

Carolina will stumble at New Orleans as Drew Brees finishes off one of the best passing seasons ever.

 

Tampa Bay handles Oakland at home but not by much.

 

Minnesota struggles but hangs up to beat the New York Giants after the Giants pull their starters in the second half.

 

Chicago falls at Houston as the Texans finish 8-8.

 

That would leave Atlanta and Minnesota as division champions and Tampa Bay as the final Wildcard.  Dallas, Philadelphia, and Chicago would be eliminated.

 

In the AFC, Miami will take advantage of Brett Favre’s shoulder problems and take out the Jets at the Meadowlands.

 

New England will go to Buffalo and put up some big numbers in a win, looking like the true dark horse Super Bowl contender (but only until the Baltimore game ends).

 

Baltimore will methodically defeat Jacksonville in a rough game and ruin the weekend for fans in New England.

 

San Diego will take some revenge against Denver and claim the West Division title.

 

That would leave Miami and San Diego as division champions and Baltimore as the final Wildcard team.

 

Note: Weather forecasts and odds are those as of Friday, December 26, 2008, 12 Noon EST

 

You will now see multiple numbers given in the Vegas line and Ov/Un.  I am listing the range given by the different books in Vegas and offshore as of 12 Noon EST Friday, so you can use the one that best meets your needs.  Remember though, if you use parlays and teasers, you must use the same source.  You cannot play a parlay using the odds from different books.  There are no picks this week due to lack of time to study the games..

 

I leave it to you to find out the book in question regarding the spreads.  Generally, some of the big ones in Vegas are: Hilton, Caesar’s-Harrah’s, MGM Mirage, Stations, Leroy’s, Wynn, Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, and The Palms.  Some of the large offshore books include: BetUs, Bodog, Sportsbook, BetJamaica, and Pinnacle.

 

Average Simulation Scores for each game are now rounded to nearest whole number.

 

Note: The ratings and the simulations do not take into account the fact that some teams will not play their regulars much if at all this week.

 

NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings-Week 17

 

Kansas City (2-13-0) at Cincinnati (3-11-1)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, strong wind, temperature in the mid 40’s

 

PiRate:                Cincinnati by 3               

Mean:                  Cincinnati by 4

Bias:                    Cincinnati by 3

 

Vegas:               Cincinnati by 2.5 to 3

Ov/Un:               37.5 to 38.5

 

100 Sims:           Cincinnati 78  Kansas City 22

Avg Sim Score:  Cincinnati 29  Kansas City 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Cincinnati 40  Kansas City 21

Outlier 1b Sim:  Kansas City 24  Cincinnati 14

 

 

St. Louis (2-13-0) at Atlanta (10-5-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Atlanta by 23

Mean:                  Atlanta by 20

Bias:                    Atlanta by 21

 

Vegas:               14 to 15.5  

Ov/Un:               44 to 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Atlanta 98  St. Louis 2

Avg Sim Score:  Atlanta 33  St. Louis 11

Outlier 1a Sim:  Atlanta 52  St. Louis 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  St. Louis 24  Atlanta 21

 

 

New England (10-5-0) at Buffalo (7-8-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain Showers, Very Strong Wind, Unseasonably mild temperature near 50

 

PiRate:                New England by 8

Mean:                  New England by 10

Bias:                    New England by 9

 

Vegas:               6 to 7   

Ov/Un:               40 to 41

 

100 Sims:           New England 73  Buffalo 27

Avg Sim Score:  New England 34  Buffalo 28

Outlier 1a Sim:  New England 45  Buffalo 23

Outlier 1b Sim:  Buffalo 31  New England 20

 

 

Detroit (0-15-0) at Green Bay (5-10-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Light snow ending after game starts, moderate wind, temperature in low 20’s

 

PiRate:                Green Bay by 19

Mean:                  Green Bay by 15

Bias:                    Green Bay by 15

 

Vegas:               Green Bay by 10 to 11.5      

Ov/Un:               42.5 to 43

 

100 Sims:           Green Bay 64  Detroit 35  1 Tie

Avg Sim Score:  Green Bay 33  Detroit 29

Outlier 1a Sim:  Green Bay 24  Detroit 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  Detroit 38  Green Bay 30

 

 

Tennessee (13-2-0) at Indianapolis (11-4-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome should be closed

 

PiRate:                Tennessee by 4

Mean:                  Tennessee by 2

Bias:                    Tennessee by 1

 

Vegas:                Tennessee by 3

Ov/Un:               38 to 38.5

 

100 Sims:           Indianapolis 58  Tennessee 42

Avg Sim Score:  Indianapolis 25  Tennessee 23

Outlier 1a Sim:  Indianapolis 28  Tennessee 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  Tennessee 24  Indianapolis 10

 

 

Chicago (9-6-0) at Houston (7-8-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Mostly sunny, light wind, temperature around 60

 

PiRate:                Chicago by 1

Mean:                  Tossup

Bias:                    Tossup

 

Vegas:               Houston by 2.5 to 3  

Ov/Un:               46 to 46.5

 

100 Sims:           Houston 51  Chicago 49

Avg Sim Score:  Houston 27  Chicago 27

Outlier 1a Sim:  Houston 37  Chicago 20

Outlier 1b Sim:  Chicago 32  Houston 17

 

 

Oakland (4-11-0) at Tampa Bay (9-6-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature near 80

 

PiRate:                Tampa Bay by 15

Mean:                  Tampa Bay by 12

Bias:                    Tampa Bay by 11

 

Vegas:               Tampa Bay by 12.5 to 14

Ov/Un:               39 to 39.5

 

100 Sims:           Tampa Bay 89  Oakland 11

Avg Sim Score:  Tampa Bay 26  Oakland 12

Outlier 1a Sim:  Tampa Bay 38  Oakland 7

Outlier 1b Sim:  Oakland 27  Tampa Bay 21

 

 

Cleveland (4-11-0) at Pittsburgh (11-4-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain showers, strong wind, temperature in low to mid 50’s

 

PiRate:                Pittsburgh by 15

Mean:                 Pittsburgh by 15

Bias:                    Pittsburgh by 16

 

Vegas:                Pittsburgh by 10.5 to 11.5

Ov/Un:               31.5 to 33

 

100 Sims:           Pittsburgh 97  Cleveland 3

Avg Sim Score:  Pittsburgh 29  Cleveland 11

Outlier 1a Sim:  Pittsburgh 49  Cleveland 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Cleveland 13  Pittsburgh 10 (2 other 3-point wins)

 

 

New York Giants (12-3-0) at Minnesota (9-6-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Giants by 3

Mean:                 Giants by 2

Bias:                    Giants by 1

 

Vegas:                Minnesota by 7 to 7.5

Ov/Un:               42

 

100 Sims:           Giants 54  Minnesota 46

Avg Sim Score:  Giants 23  Minnesota 20

Outlier 1a Sim:  Giants 31  Minnesota 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Minnesota 27  Giants 17

 

 

Carolina (11-4-0) at New Orleans (8-7-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Tossup

Mean:                  New Orleans by 1

Bias:                    Carolina by2

 

Vegas:               Carolina by 2.5 to 3

Ov/Un:               51.5 to 52.5

 

100 Sims:           New Orleans 55  Carolina 45

Avg Sim Score:  New Orleans 33  Carolina 32

Outlier 1a Sim:  New Orleans 44  Carolina 27

Outlier 1b Sim:  Carolina 35  New Orleans 20

 

 

Jacksonville (5-10-0) at Baltimore (10-5-0)

Time:           4:15PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Showers, moderate wind, temperature dropping from around 60 to the mid 50’s

 

PiRate:                Baltimore by 14

Mean:                 Baltimore by 13

Bias:                   Baltimore by 11

 

Vegas:               Baltimore by 12 to 13.5

Ov/Un:               36 to 36.5

 

100 Sims:           Baltimore 83  Jacksonville 16  1 Tie

Avg Sim Score:  Baltimore 25  Jacksonville 13

Outlier 1a Sim:  Baltimore 24  Jacksonville 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  Jacksonville 20  Baltimore 14

 

 

Dallas (9-6-0) at Philadelphia (8-6-1)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Rain showers, moderate wind, temperature falling through the 50’s

 

PiRate:                Philadelphia by 6

Mean:                 Philadelphia by 4

Bias:                   Philadelphia by 2

 

Vegas:                Philadelphia by 0 to 2

Ov/Un:               42.5 to 43

 

100 Sims:           Philadelphia 61  Dallas 39

Avg Sim Score:  Philadelphia 27  Dallas 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Philadelphia 41  Dallas 24

Outlier 1b Sim:  Dallas 34  Philadelphia 24

 

 

Miami (10-5-0) at New York Jets (9-6-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain showers, moderate wind, temperature dropping from the mid 50’s to mid 40’s

 

PiRate:                Jets by 4

Mean:                 Jets by 2

Bias:                   Jets by 1

 

Vegas:                Jets by 2 to 3   

Ov/Un:               41.5 to 42.5

 

100 Sims:           Miami 50  Jets 50

Avg Sim Score:  Miami 25  Jets 25

Outlier 1a Sim:  Miami 27  Jets 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Jets 20  Miami 12

 

 

Seattle (4-11-0) at Arizona (8-7-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in low 60’s

 

PiRate:                Arizona by 8

Mean:                  Arizona by 6

Bias:                    Arizona by 8

 

Vegas:               Arizona by 6 to 6.5

Ov/Un:               45 to 46

 

100 Sims:           Arizona 83  Seattle 17

Avg Sim Score:  Arizona 33  Seattle 23

Outlier 1a Sim:  Arizona 38  Seattle 16

Outlier 1b Sim:  Seattle 24  Arizona 20

 

 

Washington (8-7-0) at San Francisco (6-9-0)

Time:           4:15PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Showers possible, light wind, temperature in the mid 50’s

                    

PiRate:                Washington by 1

Mean:                  Washington by 1

Bias:                    Tossup

 

Vegas:               San Francisco by 3

Ov/Un:               37 to 37.5

 

100 Sims:           San Francisco 56  Washington 44

Avg Sim Score:  San Francisco 23  Washington 21

Outlier 1a Sim:  San Francisco 27  Washington 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Washington 21  San Francisco 13

 

 

Denver (8-7-0) at San Diego (7-8-0)

Time:           8:15PM EST

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature falling from mid to low 60’s

 

PiRate:                San Diego by 10

Mean:                  San Diego by   9

Bias:                    San Diego by   6

 

Vegas:                San Diego by 7.5 to 9.5

Ov/Un:               50 to 51

 

100 Sims:           San Diego 59  Denver 41

Avg Sim Score:  San Diego 34  Denver 30

Outlier 1a Sim:  San Diego 51  Denver 27

Outlier 1b Sim:  Denver 45  San Diego 31

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