PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Playoffs–Quarterfinal Round

The first two rounds of the Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs have been previously posted here.  Today’s Quarterfinal Round featured three teams from the Big Ten, two from the SEC, and one each from the ACC, Big 12, and Pac-12.

If you have not been following our 2015-16 tournament, we are using the same 24-team format currently in use by the Football Championship Division.  Here are the contests for the football version of the Elite 8.

Quarterfinal Round		1	2	3	4	F	FD	Rush	Pass	Total
#16 Ole Miss	at	10	14	0	3	27	24	163	242	405
#8 North Carolina		7	6	3	0	16	17	145	189	334
#7 Stanford	at	7	0	3	7	17	12	130	169	299
#2 Alabama		3	3	7	0	13	17	202	116	318
#6 Ohio St.	at	0	3	14	3	20	20	221	106	327
#3 Oklahoma		5	7	14	0	26	22	137	303	440
#5 Michigan St.	at	3	3	7	10	23	19	129	222	351
#4 Iowa		0	14	0	7	21	16	172	133	305

The Final Four is now set.  In next week’s semifinal round, it will be:

#16 Ole Miss vs. #5 Michigan St. at the Orange Bowl

#7 Stanford vs. #3 Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl

College Football Preview: November 3-7, 2015

The 5-Star College Football Week of the Season
This is the biggest week of the college football season so far. Many questions will be answered by this time next Sunday. The second issuing of the NCAA Playoff Committee will be much different than the first one that comes out Tuesday, as many of the contending teams face off against other contending teams this week. Additionally, there are key games that will weed out conference championship pretenders from the contenders. And, in multiple cases, there will be games where the winners take a giant step toward bowl eligibity, while the losers drop out of the picture.

This is the great Bonanza for you the fan this week.

Tuesday
Northern Illinois at Toledo: Toledo is still in the race for a New Year’s Six Bowl bid. The Rockets hold wins over Arkansas and Iowa State, and they would need for Memphis and Houston to lose before they would have a shot, but it is still possible. Northern Illinois is still in the MAC West Division race.

Wednesday
Ohio at Bowling Green: The MAC East Division title goes to Bowling Green if the Falcons win this game. If Ohio upsets BGU, the Falcons still have a one-game lead.

Thursday
Arkansas St. at Appalachian St.: The winner will hold first place to themselves in the Sun Belt Conference. Both teams are going bowling this year, and if Appy St. wins out to finish 11-1, that could set up an incredible GoDaddy.com bowl between two 11-win teams.

Saturday
Duke at North Carolina: A week after getting “hosed” by the referees, Duke must now win at its arch-rival to stay in the ACC Coastal Division race. A Tar Heel win basically puts North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game.

Florida St. at Clemson: Another impressive CU win could vault the Tigers into the upper two spots in the Playoff bracket with no remaining teams to play as strong as FSU or Notre Dame, who Clemson would have already beaten. If Florida St. can win at Clemson and then at Florida, and if they could then win the ACC Championship Game, the Seminoles would have a chance at the #4 seed.

Arkansas at Ole Miss: This could be a trap game for the Rebels. With a game coming up against LSU, Ole Miss can ill-afford to lose to Arkansas and fall below the Alabama-LSU winner. If Ole Miss can win, the Rebels stay in control in the SEC West Race.

Iowa at Indiana: The Hawkeyes can only make the Playoffs if they win out and then beat either Ohio St. or Michigan St. in the Big Ten Championship Game. Indiana was once 4-0, but they have dropped four straight games. The Hoosiers must come up with two wins in their last four games, and besides this game, they face Michigan and Maryland and Purdue on the road. Kevin Wilson’s job could be on the line.

TCU at Oklahoma St.: The winner should move into the top 4 in the following week’s poll, and Oklahoma State has come out of nowhere to be in this position. The Cowboys host the three other contenders in the league, and at this point, we have to consider them the co-favorite to win the Big 12. The other co-favorite is the team they play Saturday. We believe the winner of this game will emerge as the league champion, but if the league champion loses a game, the destination will most likely be New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl and not the Playoffs.

Cincinnati at Houston: The Cougars can smell that New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid. They have the most advantageous schedule of any of the contending teams for the one guaranteed Group of 5 teams. Cincinnati is out of the NY6 picture, but the Bearcats have an offense capable of matching UH point for point.

Utah St. at New Mexico: Bob Davie has the Lobos close to getting back to a bowl. New Mexico is 4-4 and needs two upsets in their final four games from a group that also includes Boise St., Colorado St., and Air Force. If the Lobos can get an upset in this game, we believe they will get one more. As for Utah St., the Mountain West Mountain Division flag is in their grasp with a previous win over Boise St., but the Aggies must still play at Air Force and cannot afford to slip up here.

Navy at Memphis: Memphis must keep pace with Houston and Toledo in the Group of 5 race. A win here would be considered a quality win, especially if the Tigers can win as convincingly as Notre Dame’s win over the Midshipmen. Navy is basically locked into a Military Bowl bid at this point, but if they beat Memphis and win out, while Houston and Toledo both lose a game ,the Middies could find themselves in the Peach or Fiesta Bowl.

LSU at Alabama: This is the top game of the week. How many times in recent history has this game had national championship repercussions? Can Leonard Fournette keep LSU’s offense moving against a Crimson Tide defense that will force the Tigers to throw the ball or face eight men up front? What about Alabama’s offense? It has been Jekyll and Hyde this year when the Tide has the ball. LSU’s run defense might be up to the task to slow the ‘Bama running game. It should be close and lower than average scoring.

This Week’s Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	128.9	126.7	128.5	128.0
2	Ohio St.	129.0	123.6	129.8	127.5
3	Baylor	128.3	124.8	128.8	127.3
4	TCU	129.5	121.0	130.1	126.9
5	Oklahoma	126.4	122.9	126.6	125.3
6	LSU	124.3	121.5	124.7	123.5
7	Clemson	122.6	123.8	123.3	123.2
8	Stanford	122.5	120.7	122.2	121.8
9	Notre Dame	122.8	119.7	122.8	121.8
10	USC	122.7	119.1	123.1	121.6
11	Florida	121.5	118.3	121.9	120.6
12	Ole Miss	122.7	117.7	120.8	120.4
13	Tennessee	121.4	117.3	121.4	120.0
14	Utah	121.7	116.2	120.9	119.6
15	North Carolina	117.8	118.1	117.7	117.9
16	UCLA	120.3	114.3	118.5	117.7
17	Michigan	118.5	115.4	118.1	117.3
18	Texas A&M	117.8	114.5	116.0	116.1
19	Arkansas	118.0	112.5	117.0	115.8
20	Michigan St.	116.6	113.4	116.3	115.4
21	Mississippi St.	115.8	112.5	116.2	114.8
22	Oklahoma St.	115.2	112.8	115.6	114.5
23	California	116.2	110.9	115.6	114.2
24	Florida St.	114.1	114.8	113.4	114.1
25	Georgia	116.9	109.8	115.5	114.1
26	Arizona St.	116.0	110.8	115.0	113.9
27	Oregon	116.0	109.3	115.3	113.5
28	Houston	110.2	117.0	112.9	113.4
29	Wisconsin	113.2	113.5	112.7	113.1
30	Auburn	113.8	111.2	112.8	112.6
31	Iowa	110.7	112.9	111.3	111.6
32	Georgia Tech	112.7	110.3	111.3	111.4
33	Boise St.	112.4	109.0	112.1	111.2
34	West Virginia	113.2	107.5	112.4	111.0
35	Memphis	110.3	111.2	111.1	110.9
36	Virginia Tech	110.2	109.9	110.0	110.0
37	North Carolina St.	109.8	111.2	108.6	109.9
38	Temple	108.8	110.9	109.5	109.7
39	Washington	110.3	107.7	110.9	109.6
40	Bowling Green	106.2	111.0	109.0	108.7
41	Duke	108.4	108.8	108.9	108.7
42	Missouri	109.0	105.4	108.0	107.5
43	Louisville	106.9	109.3	106.2	107.5
44	Pittsburgh	106.9	107.6	107.5	107.3
45	BYU	107.1	106.3	108.0	107.1
46	Western Kentucky	106.4	106.5	107.7	106.9
47	Penn St.	106.7	107.0	106.7	106.8
48	Nebraska	107.8	106.0	106.6	106.8
49	San Diego St.	104.0	108.4	105.5	106.0
50	Cincinnati	105.0	106.1	106.3	105.8
51	Toledo	104.6	105.6	106.3	105.5
52	South Carolina	107.2	103.7	105.5	105.5
53	Miami	104.1	104.7	105.1	104.6
54	Arizona	106.6	100.9	105.4	104.3
55	Washington St.	105.3	101.4	105.1	103.9
56	Minnesota	104.7	103.0	104.0	103.9
57	Northwestern	103.9	104.0	103.5	103.8
58	Texas Tech	106.8	98.3	106.2	103.8
59	Colorado	105.9	100.7	104.3	103.6
60	Texas	104.7	101.4	104.5	103.5
61	Louisiana Tech	102.8	102.2	103.6	102.9
62	Navy	100.3	103.8	100.9	101.7
63	Kansas St.	105.3	95.2	104.3	101.6
64	Illinois	102.6	100.7	101.4	101.6
65	Kentucky	103.3	99.4	101.8	101.5
66	Virginia	101.7	99.7	101.3	100.9
67	Appalachian St.	99.1	102.3	101.3	100.9
68	Utah St.	100.3	100.8	100.8	100.6
69	Boston College	99.8	103.0	98.4	100.4
70	Western Michigan	99.5	100.2	100.6	100.1
71	Iowa St.	99.9	96.4	100.1	98.8
72	Purdue	99.2	98.5	98.0	98.6
73	Vanderbilt	99.9	95.9	99.7	98.5
74	Air Force	96.8	100.8	96.3	98.0
75	Georgia Southern	95.9	98.7	96.8	97.1
76	Northern Illinois	95.3	99.2	96.0	96.8
77	Wake Forest	95.2	98.5	94.5	96.1
78	Indiana	96.2	96.2	95.5	96.0
79	Marshall	95.5	96.6	95.8	96.0
80	East Carolina	93.4	96.9	94.2	94.8
81	South Florida	92.5	98.4	93.3	94.7
82	Syracuse	93.9	96.6	93.3	94.6
83	Maryland	94.5	92.9	94.0	93.8
84	Rutgers	95.1	92.1	93.6	93.6
85	Central Michigan	90.7	95.0	92.8	92.8
86	Southern Mississippi	91.7	93.8	92.5	92.7
87	Middle Tennessee	93.2	92.0	92.7	92.6
88	San Jose St.	91.3	94.2	91.2	92.2
89	Tulsa	90.1	94.4	91.1	91.9
90	Colorado St.	92.2	90.8	91.0	91.3
91	Florida International	90.1	92.7	90.7	91.2
92	Oregon St.	92.6	89.3	90.8	90.9
93	Connecticut	88.6	93.4	89.5	90.5
94	Nevada	88.8	92.5	88.4	89.9
95	Arkansas St.	89.1	89.9	89.9	89.6
96	Ohio	87.0	91.3	88.6	89.0
97	New Mexico	88.2	89.0	86.9	88.0
98	Tulane	85.4	87.7	84.9	86.0
99	Buffalo	83.2	89.5	85.1	85.9
100	Massachusetts	84.6	87.2	85.4	85.7
101	Akron	83.0	88.9	84.4	85.4
102	UL-Lafayette	83.6	86.7	84.1	84.8
103	SMU	83.6	87.5	83.2	84.8
104	Rice	83.3	86.6	83.5	84.5
105	Hawaii	83.4	85.6	83.1	84.0
106	Ball St.	82.7	85.1	83.6	83.8
107	UNLV	82.6	84.6	83.2	83.5
108	Florida Atlantic	81.8	84.9	82.3	83.0
109	Troy	80.7	82.1	82.2	81.7
110	Texas St.	80.4	83.8	79.9	81.4
111	Fresno St.	80.7	84.4	78.9	81.3
112	Army	77.7	86.7	79.1	81.2
113	Wyoming	80.6	82.8	79.8	81.1
114	UT-San Antonio	79.8	82.3	80.6	80.9
115	Kent St.	79.5	82.0	80.0	80.5
116	Central Florida	79.2	82.2	79.5	80.3
117	UTEP	76.6	79.1	76.2	77.3
118	South Alabama	74.7	80.7	75.6	77.0
119	Georgia St.	76.9	76.7	77.4	77.0
120	Old Dominion	75.3	79.7	74.3	76.4
121	UL-Monroe	76.7	75.6	76.7	76.3
122	Idaho	73.1	78.5	74.4	75.3
123	North Texas	73.2	78.0	73.6	74.9
124	Miami (O)	73.1	77.6	73.5	74.7
125	Eastern Michigan	72.2	78.8	71.7	74.2
126	Kansas	76.6	70.2	74.5	73.8
127	New Mexico St.	68.8	70.3	69.0	69.4
128	Charlotte	68.1	70.1	67.7	68.6

 

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Ohio St.
2	Alabama
3	TCU
4	Clemson
5	LSU
6	Baylor
7	Oklahoma
8	Michigan St.
9	Notre Dame
10	Utah
11	Iowa
12	Florida
13	Stanford
14	Oklahoma St.
15	Michigan
16	Memphis
17	Ole Miss
18	USC
19	Houston
20	Florida St.
21	North Carolina
22	Mississippi St.
23	Toledo
24	Wisconsin
25	Texas A&M
26	UCLA
27	Navy
28	Temple
29	BYU
30	Tennessee
31	Northwestern
32	Penn St.
33	California
34	Boise St.
35	Appalachian St.
36	Bowling Green
37	Duke
38	Pittsburgh
39	Oregon
40	Washington
41	Western Kentucky
42	Arkansas
43	Miami (Fla)
44	Georgia
45	Cincinnati
46	Texas Tech
47	Washington St.
48	Louisville
49	Utah St.
50	North Carolina St.
51	Georgia Southern
52	Auburn
53	West Virginia
54	Marshall
55	Louisiana Tech
56	Virginia Tech
57	Arizona St.
58	San Diego St.
59	Western Michigan
60	Central Michigan
61	Kansas St.
62	Air Force
63	Georgia Tech
64	Minnesota
65	Illinois
66	Iowa St.
67	Indiana
68	Northern Illinois
69	Virginia
70	Missouri
71	Texas
72	South Carolina
73	Arizona
74	Kentucky
75	Arkansas St.
76	Southern Miss.
77	Tulsa
78	Connecticut
79	South Florida
80	East Carolina
81	Nebraska
82	Colorado
83	Boston College
84	Syracuse
85	Ohio
86	Purdue
87	Vanderbilt
88	Maryland
89	Rutgers
90	Buffalo
91	MTSU
92	Wake Forest
93	Louisiana-Lafayette
94	Colorado St.
95	San Jose St.
96	Kent St.
97	Rice
98	Akron
99	Nevada
100	South Alabama
101	Oregon St.
102	Troy
103	Florida Int’l.
104	Ball St.
105	UNLV
106	New Mexico
107	Tulane
108	SMU
109	Army
110	Old Dominion
111	Texas St.
112	Fresno St.
113	Massachusetts
114	Idaho
115	Florida Atlantic
116	Georgia St.
117	Hawaii
118	Kansas
119	Louisiana-Monroe
120	Wyoming
121	UTSA
122	UTEP
123	Miami (O)
124	Eastern Michigan
125	North Texas
126	Central Florida
127	Charlotte
128	New Mexico St.

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Temple	4-0	7-1	108.8	110.9	109.5	109.7
Cincinnati	2-2	5-3	105.0	106.1	106.3	105.8
East Carolina	2-3	4-5	93.4	96.9	94.2	94.8
South Florida	2-2	4-4	92.5	98.4	93.3	94.7
Connecticut	2-3	4-5	88.6	93.4	89.5	90.5
Central Florida	0-5	0-9	79.2	82.2	79.5	80.3
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	4-0	8-0	110.2	117.0	112.9	113.4
Memphis	4-0	8-0	110.3	111.2	111.1	110.9
Navy	4-0	6-1	100.3	103.8	100.9	101.7
Tulsa	1-3	4-4	90.1	94.4	91.1	91.9
Tulane	1-4	2-6	85.4	87.7	84.9	86.0
SMU	0-4	1-7	83.6	87.5	83.2	84.8
AAC Averages			95.6	99.1	96.4	97.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	5-0	8-0	122.6	123.8	123.3	123.2
Florida St.	5-1	7-1	114.1	114.8	113.4	114.1
North Carolina St.	1-3	5-3	109.8	111.2	108.6	109.9
Louisville	3-2	4-4	106.9	109.3	106.2	107.5
Boston College	0-6	3-6	99.8	103.0	98.4	100.4
Wake Forest	1-5	3-6	95.2	98.5	94.5	96.1
Syracuse	1-3	3-5	93.9	96.6	93.3	94.6
Coastal Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	4-0	7-1	117.8	118.1	117.7	117.9
Georgia Tech	1-5	3-6	112.7	110.3	111.3	111.4
Virginia Tech	2-3	4-5	110.2	109.9	110.0	110.0
Duke	3-1	6-2	108.4	108.8	108.9	108.7
Pittsburgh	4-1	6-2	106.9	107.6	107.5	107.3
Miami	2-2	5-3	104.1	104.7	105.1	104.6
Virginia	2-2	3-5	101.7	99.7	101.3	100.9
ACC Averages			107.4	108.3	107.1	107.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Baylor	4-0	7-0	128.3	124.8	128.8	127.3
TCU	5-0	8-0	129.5	121.0	130.1	126.9
Oklahoma	4-1	7-1	126.4	122.9	126.6	125.3
Oklahoma St.	5-0	8-0	115.2	112.8	115.6	114.5
West Virginia	0-4	3-4	113.2	107.5	112.4	111.0
Texas Tech	2-4	5-4	106.8	98.3	106.2	103.8
Texas	2-3	3-5	104.7	101.4	104.5	103.5
Kansas St.	0-4	3-4	105.3	95.2	104.3	101.6
Iowa St.	2-3	3-5	99.9	96.4	100.1	98.8
Kansas	0-5	0-8	76.6	70.2	74.5	73.8
Big 12 Averages			110.6	105.1	110.3	108.7
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	4-0	8-0	129.0	123.6	129.8	127.5
Michigan	3-1	6-2	118.5	115.4	118.1	117.3
Michigan St.	4-0	8-0	116.6	113.4	116.3	115.4
Penn St.	4-1	7-2	106.7	107.0	106.7	106.8
Indiana	0-4	4-4	96.2	96.2	95.5	96.0
Maryland	0-4	2-6	94.5	92.9	94.0	93.8
Rutgers	1-4	3-5	95.1	92.1	93.6	93.6
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	4-1	7-2	113.2	113.5	112.7	113.1
Iowa	4-0	8-0	110.7	112.9	111.3	111.6
Nebraska	1-4	3-6	107.8	106.0	106.6	106.8
Minnesota	1-3	4-4	104.7	103.0	104.0	103.9
Northwestern	2-2	6-2	103.9	104.0	103.5	103.8
Illinois	1-3	4-4	102.6	100.7	101.4	101.6
Purdue	1-3	2-6	99.2	98.5	98.0	98.6
Big Ten Averages			107.1	105.7	106.5	106.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	5-0	7-2	106.4	106.5	107.7	106.9
Marshall	5-0	8-1	95.5	96.6	95.8	96.0
Middle Tennessee	2-2	3-5	93.2	92.0	92.7	92.6
Florida International	2-3	4-5	90.1	92.7	90.7	91.2
Florida Atlantic	2-3	2-6	81.8	84.9	82.3	83.0
Old Dominion	1-3	3-5	75.3	79.7	74.3	76.4
Charlotte	0-5	2-6	68.1	70.1	67.7	68.6
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	4-1	6-3	102.8	102.2	103.6	102.9
Southern Mississippi	4-1	6-3	91.7	93.8	92.5	92.7
Rice	2-2	4-4	83.3	86.6	83.5	84.5
UT-San Antonio	1-3	1-7	79.8	82.3	80.6	80.9
UTEP	1-3	3-5	76.6	79.1	76.2	77.3
North Texas	1-4	1-7	73.2	78.0	73.6	74.9
CUSA Averages			86.0	88.0	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		7-1	122.8	119.7	122.8	121.8
BYU		6-2	107.1	106.3	108.0	107.1
Army		2-6	77.7	86.7	79.1	81.2
Independents Averages			102.5	104.2	103.3	103.4
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Bowling Green	4-0	6-2	106.2	111.0	109.0	108.7
Ohio	2-2	5-3	87.0	91.3	88.6	89.0
Buffalo	2-2	4-4	83.2	89.5	85.1	85.9
Massachusetts	0-4	1-7	84.6	87.2	85.4	85.7
Akron	1-3	3-5	83.0	88.9	84.4	85.4
Kent St.	2-2	3-5	79.5	82.0	80.0	80.5
Miami (O)	0-5	1-8	73.1	77.6	73.5	74.7
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	4-0	7-0	104.6	105.6	106.3	105.5
Western Michigan	4-0	5-3	99.5	100.2	100.6	100.1
Northern Illinois	3-1	5-3	95.3	99.2	96.0	96.8
Central Michigan	4-1	5-4	90.7	95.0	92.8	92.8
Ball St.	2-3	3-6	82.7	85.1	83.6	83.8
Eastern Michigan	0-5	1-8	72.2	78.8	71.7	74.2
MAC Averages			87.8	91.6	89.0	89.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	4-1	7-2	112.4	109.0	112.1	111.2
Utah St.	4-1	5-3	100.3	100.8	100.8	100.6
Air Force	4-1	5-3	96.8	100.8	96.3	98.0
Colorado St.	1-3	3-5	92.2	90.8	91.0	91.3
New Mexico	2-2	4-4	88.2	89.0	86.9	88.0
Wyoming	1-4	1-8	80.6	82.8	79.8	81.1
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	5-0	6-3	104.0	108.4	105.5	106.0
San Jose St.	3-2	4-4	91.3	94.2	91.2	92.2
Nevada	2-2	4-4	88.8	92.5	88.4	89.9
Hawaii	0-5	2-7	83.4	85.6	83.1	84.0
UNLV	1-3	2-6	82.6	84.6	83.2	83.5
Fresno St.	1-4	2-6	80.7	84.4	78.9	81.3
MWC Averages			91.8	93.6	91.4	92.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Stanford	6-0	7-1	122.5	120.7	122.2	121.8
California	2-3	5-3	116.2	110.9	115.6	114.2
Oregon	3-2	5-3	116.0	109.3	115.3	113.5
Washington	2-3	4-4	110.3	107.7	110.9	109.6
Washington St.	3-2	5-3	105.3	101.4	105.1	103.9
Oregon St.	0-5	2-6	92.6	89.3	90.8	90.9
South Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
USC	3-2	5-3	122.7	119.1	123.1	121.6
Utah	4-1	7-1	121.7	116.2	120.9	119.6
UCLA	3-2	6-2	120.3	114.3	118.5	117.7
Arizona St.	2-3	4-4	116.0	110.8	115.0	113.9
Arizona	2-4	5-4	106.6	100.9	105.4	104.3
Colorado	1-4	4-5	105.9	100.7	104.3	103.6
Pac-12 Averages			113.0	108.4	112.3	111.2
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida	5-1	7-1	121.5	118.3	121.9	120.6
Tennessee	2-3	4-4	121.4	117.3	121.4	120.0
Georgia	3-3	5-3	116.9	109.8	115.5	114.1
Missouri	1-4	4-4	109.0	105.4	108.0	107.5
South Carolina	1-5	3-5	107.2	103.7	105.5	105.5
Kentucky	2-4	4-4	103.3	99.4	101.8	101.5
Vanderbilt	1-3	3-5	99.9	95.9	99.7	98.5
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	4-1	7-1	128.9	126.7	128.5	128.0
LSU	4-0	7-0	124.3	121.5	124.7	123.5
Ole Miss	4-1	7-2	122.7	117.7	120.8	120.4
Texas A&M	3-2	6-2	117.8	114.5	116.0	116.1
Arkansas	2-2	4-4	118.0	112.5	117.0	115.8
Mississippi St.	2-2	6-2	115.8	112.5	116.2	114.8
Auburn	1-4	4-4	113.8	111.2	112.8	112.6
SEC Averages			115.8	111.9	115.0	114.2
Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	4-0	7-1	99.1	102.3	101.3	100.9
Georgia Southern	4-1	6-2	95.9	98.7	96.8	97.1
Arkansas St.	4-0	5-3	89.1	89.9	89.9	89.6
UL-Lafayette	2-1	3-4	83.6	86.7	84.1	84.8
Troy	1-3	2-6	80.7	82.1	82.2	81.7
Texas St.	1-2	2-5	80.4	83.8	79.9	81.4
South Alabama	1-2	3-4	74.7	80.7	75.6	77.0
Georgia St.	1-2	2-5	76.9	76.7	77.4	77.0
UL-Monroe	0-4	1-7	76.7	75.6	76.7	76.3
Idaho	2-3	3-5	73.1	78.5	74.4	75.3
New Mexico St.	1-3	1-7	68.8	70.3	69.0	69.4
Sun Belt Averages			81.7	84.1	82.5	82.8

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	115.8	111.9	115.0	114.2
2	Pac-12	113.0	108.4	112.3	111.2
3	Big 12	110.6	105.1	110.3	108.7
4	ACC	107.4	108.3	107.1	107.6
5	Big Ten	107.1	105.7	106.5	106.4
6	Indep.	102.5	104.2	103.3	103.4
7	AAC	95.6	99.1	96.4	97.0
8	MWC	91.8	93.6	91.4	92.3
9	MAC	87.8	91.6	89.0	89.5
10	CUSA	86.0	88.0	86.2	86.8
11	SBC	81.7	84.1	82.5	82.8

 

NCAA Playoffs
1	Ohio St.
2	LSU
3	Clemson
4	Baylor

 

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
#	Team
1	Memphis
2	Houston
3	Toleo
4	Temple
5	Navy

 

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
#	Team
10	Iowa St.
9	Purdue
8	Vanderbilt
7	Wake Forest
6	Indiana
5	Syracuse
4	Maryland
3	Rutgers
2	Oregon St.
1	Kansas

 

FCS Top 10
#	Team	PiRate
1	Jacksonville St.	96.6
2	Dartmouth	92.8
3	Harvard	92.4
4	Chattanooga	91.3
5	Illinois St.	91.1
6	North Dakota St.	91.0
7	McNeese St.	90.7
8	Dayton	90.6
9	Richmond	90.3
10	Charleston Southern	89.4

 

This Week’s Games
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tuesday, November 3
Toledo	Northern Illinois	12.3	9.4	10.1
Wednesday, November 4
Bowling Green	Ohio	21.2	21.7	22.4
Thursday, November 5
Kent St.	Buffalo	-1.2	-5.0	-2.6
Western Michigan	Ball St.	19.8	18.1	20.0
Appalachian St.	Arkansas St.	13.0	15.4	14.4
Kansas St.	Baylor	-20.0	-26.6	-21.5
Missouri	Mississippi St.	-3.8	-4.1	-5.2
Fresno St.	Nevada	-5.1	-5.1	-6.5
Friday, November 6
SMU	Temple	-22.2	-20.4	-23.3
UTEP	Rice	-4.2	-5.0	-4.8
San Jose St.	BYU	-12.8	-9.1	-13.8
Saturday, November 7
Massachusetts	Akron	4.1	0.8	3.5
Western Kentucky	Florida Atlantic	27.6	24.6	28.4
Tulsa	Central Florida	13.9	15.2	14.6
Northwestern	Penn St.	0.2	0.0	-0.2
Purdue	Illinois	-0.4	0.8	-0.4
Florida Int’l.	Charlotte	25.0	25.6	26.0
West Virginia	Texas Tech	9.4	12.2	9.2
North Carolina	Duke	10.9	10.8	10.3
Florida	Vanderbilt	24.6	25.4	25.2
Georgia	Kentucky	16.6	13.4	16.7
Pittsburgh	Notre Dame	-12.9	-9.1	-12.3
Louisville	Syracuse	16.0	15.7	15.9
Boston College	North Carolina St.	-7.0	-5.2	-7.2
Colorado	Stanford	-13.6	-17.0	-14.9
Georgia St.	Louisiana-Lafayette	-4.2	-7.5	-4.2
Miami (O)	Eastern Michigan	3.4	1.3	4.3
South Alabama	Idaho	5.1	5.7	4.7
Wyoming	Colorado St.	-9.6	-6.0	-9.2
Miami (Fla)	Virginia	4.9	7.5	6.3
Clemson	Florida St.	11.5	12.0	12.9
Ole Miss	Arkansas	7.7	8.2	6.8
Air Force	Army	22.1	17.1	20.2
Washington St.	Arizona St.	-7.7	-6.4	-6.9
Indiana	Iowa	-11.5	-13.7	-12.8
Maryland	Wisconsin	-15.7	-17.6	-15.7
Michigan	Rutgers	26.4	26.3	27.5
Oklahoma St.	TCU	-11.3	-5.2	-11.5
Louisiana Tech	North Texas	32.6	27.2	33.0
Middle Tennessee	Marshall	0.7	-1.6	-0.1
Houston	Cincinnati	8.2	13.9	9.6
Troy	Louisiana-Monroe	6.5	9.0	8.0
New Mexico	Utah St.	-9.1	-8.8	-10.9
Texas St.	New Mexico St.	13.6	15.5	12.9
Tulane	Connecticut	-2.0	-2.7	-1.6
Tennessee	South Carolina	17.2	16.6	18.9
Oregon St.	UCLA	-24.7	-22.0	-24.7
UNLV	Hawaii	3.2	3.0	4.1
Memphis	Navy	13.0	10.4	13.2
UTSA	Old Dominion	7.0	5.1	8.8
Oklahoma	Iowa St.	29.5	29.5	29.5
Nebraska	Michigan St.	-5.8	-4.4	-6.7
Washington	Utah	-8.4	-5.5	-7.0
Texas A&M	Auburn	7.0	6.3	6.2
East Carolina	South Florida	3.9	1.5	3.9
Alabama	LSU	7.6	8.2	6.8
Texas	Kansas	31.1	34.2	33.0
Ohio St.	Minnesota	27.3	23.6	28.8
Oregon	California	2.8	1.4	2.7
USC	Arizona	19.1	21.2	20.7

 

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
Cure	AAC	SBC	Cincinnati	vs.	Arkansas St.
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Colorado St.	vs.	Old Dominion
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC/BYU	Washington St.	vs.	BYU
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	vs.	Georgia Southern
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Southern Miss.	vs.	Louisiana-Lafayette
Miami Beach	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	vs.	Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Western Michigan	vs.	Utah St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Temple	vs.	Bowling Green
Poinsettia	MWC	Army	Boise St.	vs.	Washington *
GoDaddy	MAC	SBC	Toledo	vs.	Appalachian St.
Bahamas	CUSA	MAC	Louisiana Tech	vs.	Northern Illinois
Hawaii	AAC	MWC/BYU	Tulsa	vs.	San Diego St.
St. Petersburg	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	vs.	Marshall
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	North Carolina	vs.	Oregon
Heart of Dallas	Big 12	CUSA	Texas St. *	vs.	Rice
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	vs.	Rutgers ^
Independence	SEC	ACC	Akron *	vs.	Virginia Tech
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Miami (Fla) *	vs.	California
Military	ACC	AAC	North Carolina St.	vs.	Navy
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Louisville	vs.	Buffalo *
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Central Michigan *	vs.	Air Force
Russell Athletic	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	vs.	Oklahoma
Arizona	CUSA	MWC	Middle Tennessee	vs.	Nevada
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	vs.	Mississippi St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	East Carolina	vs.	Auburn
Belk	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	vs.	Georgia
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	vs.	Kentucky
Peach	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	Iowa	vs.	LSU
Cotton	Playoff	Playoff	Ohio St.	vs.	Alabama
Orange	Playoff	Playoff	Clemson	vs.	Oklahoma St.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	vs.	UCLA
Ouback	Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	vs.	Tennessee
Citrus	Big Ten	SEC	Wisconsin	vs.	Ole Miss
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	TCU	vs.	Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan St.	vs.	Stanford
Fiesta	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	Utah	vs.	Houston
TaxSlayer	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Duke	vs.	Texas A&M
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	West Virginia	vs.	Arkansas
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Baylor	vs.	USC
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	vs.	Arizona St.
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Ohio St.	vs.	Clemson
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot
^ = Rutgers qualifies for a bowl at 5-7 with highest APR score of 5-7 teams

College Football Preview: September 24-26, 2015

It was an interesting Week 3 in the college football world with Ole Miss topping off an incredible day by topping Alabama in Tuscaloosa.  Ohio State and TCU looked very beatable in narrow wins over Northern Illinois and SMU, while Georgia and Notre Dame pulled off convincing wins.

We start to ruminate about the playoff teams for this year, and you will see our first look at who we believe are the leaders in the clubhouse.  One of our readers, Gary in Toronto, has sent us a comment asking who we believe would have been the four playoff teams in recent years before the playoffs were real.  Gary, we did this one better.  We calculated who we thought would have made the playoffs all the way back to 1969, when we first began compiling ratings.

What follows is not who WE thought should have been in the playoffs; this is who we believe the COMMITTEE of the time period would have selected based on the same criteria they use today, plus our personal belief that politics do play a part.  Thus, deserving undefeated teams like Miami of Ohio and Toledo in the 1970’s, and maybe even Dartmouth in 1970 would have been excluded for one and two-loss teams from the power leagues.  For you trivia buffs, Dartmouth was actually a ranked team in 1970, the last Ivy League team to finish the season ranked in the then top 20 (Yale was the last Ivy League team to appear in the weekly rankings in 1972).

Here they are:

2013: 1-Florida St.,  2-Auburn,  3-Michigan St., 4-Alabama
2012: 1-Alabama, 2-Notre Dame, 3-Oregon, 4-Stanford
2011: 1-LSU, 2-Alabama, 3-Oklahoma St., 4-Oregon
2010: 1-Auburn, 2-Oregon, 3-TCU, 4-Stanford
2009: 1-Alabama, 2-Texas, 3-Florida, 4-Boise St.
2008: 1-Florida, 2-Oklahoma, 3-USC, 4-Utah
2007: 1-LSU, 2-Ohio St., 3-Kansas, 4-West Virginia
2006: 1-Ohio St., 2-Florida, 3-Michigan, 4-USC
2005: 1-Texas, 2-USC, 3-Penn St., 4-Virginia Tech
2004: 1-USC, 2-Oklahoma, 3-Auburn, 4-Utah
2003: 1-LSU, 2-Oklahoma, 3-USC, 4-Michigan
2002: 1-Ohio St., 2-Miami, 3-Georgia, 4-USC
2001: 1-Miami, 2-Nebraska, 3-Oregon, 4-Colorado
2000: 1-Oklahoma, 2-Florida St., 3-Miami, 4-Washington
1999: 1-Florida St., 2-Virginia Tech, 3-Nebraska, 4-Kansas St.
1998: 1-Tennessee. 2-Florida St., 3-Ohio St., 4-Kansas St.
1997: 1-Nebraska, 2-Michigan, 3-Florida St., 4-Tennessee
1996: 1-Florida St., 2-Florida, 3-Ohio St., 4-Arizona St.
1995: 1-Nebraska, 2-Florida, 3-Tennessee, 4-Ohio St.
1994: 1-Nebraska, 2-Penn St., 3-Miami, 4-Colorado
1993: 1-Florida St., 2-Notre Dame, 3-West Virginia, 4-Nebraska
1992: 1-Alabama. 2-Miami, 3-Texas A&M, 4-Florida St.
1991: 1-Miami, 2-Washington, 3-Alabama, 4-Michigan
1990: 1: Georgia Tech, 2-Colorado, 3-Miami, 4-Washington
1989: 1-Miami, 2-Notre Dame, 3-Colorado, 4-Tennessee
1988: 1-Notre Dame, 2-West Virginia, 3-Miami, 4-Florida St.
1987: 1-Miami, 2-Oklahoma 3-Florida St., 4-Syracuse
1986: 1-Miami, 2-Penn St., 3-Oklahoma, 4-Michigan
1985: 1-Oklahoma, 2-Penn St., 3-Michigan, 4-Miami
1984: 1-BYU, 2-Washington, 3-Nebraska, 4-Boston College
1983: 1-Nebraska, 2-Texas, 3-Miami, 4-Auburn
1982: 1-Georgia, 2-Penn St., 3-Nebraska, 4-SMU
1981: 1-Clemson, 2-Pittsburgh, 3-Georgia, 4-Penn St.
1980: 1-Georgia, 2-Pittsburgh, 3-Notre Dame, 4-Nebraska
1979: 1-Alabama, 2-USC, 3-Ohio St., 4-Oklahoma
1978: 1-Penn St., 2-USC, 3-Alabama, 4-Oklahoma
1977: 1-Texas, 2-Notre Dame, 3-Alabama, 4-Michigan
1976: 1-Pittsburgh, 2-Michigan, 3-Georgia, 4-USC
1975: 1-Ohio St., 2-Alabama, 3-Oklahoma, 4-Arizona St.
1974: 1-Alabama, 2-Ohio St., 3-USC, 4-Michigan
1973: 1-Notre Dame, 2-Alabama, 3-Penn St., 4-Ohio St.
1972: 1-USC, 2-Oklahoma, 3-Texas, 4-Michigan
1971: 1-Nebraska, 2-Oklahoma, 3-Alabama, 4-Michigan
1970: 1-Texas, 2-Nebraska, 3-Tennessee, 4-Notre Dame
1969: 1-Texas, 2-Penn St., 3-USC, 4-Missouri

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	133.4	124.0	134.3	130.6
2	Ole Miss	130.2	123.8	128.8	127.6
3	LSU	125.8	121.8	125.6	124.4
4	TCU	127.4	117.2	128.5	124.4
5	Alabama	125.0	123.3	124.6	124.3
6	Baylor	123.7	119.8	124.2	122.6
7	Notre Dame	123.4	119.4	123.9	122.2
8	Georgia	124.4	116.8	123.7	121.6
9	USC	121.5	118.2	121.9	120.5
10	Oklahoma	121.1	118.4	121.4	120.3
11	Georgia Tech	123.0	115.0	122.6	120.2
12	Oregon	122.8	114.8	122.2	119.9
13	UCLA	122.6	116.1	120.5	119.7
14	Texas A&M	120.4	118.6	119.4	119.5
15	Michigan St.	121.2	115.3	121.1	119.2
16	Tennessee	120.6	116.4	120.4	119.1
17	Stanford	118.4	117.2	118.6	118.1
18	California	118.1	113.1	118.6	116.6
19	Auburn	116.9	114.9	115.9	115.9
20	Clemson	115.3	116.5	115.2	115.7
21	Utah	117.8	112.1	117.0	115.6
22	Arkansas	117.4	111.1	116.3	114.9
23	Florida St.	114.9	115.3	113.6	114.6
24	Virginia Tech	115.4	111.8	115.8	114.3
25	North Carolina	113.7	113.7	113.3	113.6
26	West Virginia	115.0	109.6	114.4	113.0
27	Oklahoma St.	112.0	112.6	112.7	112.4
28	Arizona St.	114.7	109.4	113.2	112.4
29	Arizona	114.9	107.8	113.0	111.9
30	Mississippi St.	113.4	108.9	113.4	111.9
31	Michigan	112.8	108.9	112.1	111.3
32	Wisconsin	111.2	112.0	110.2	111.1
33	Florida	111.8	108.4	111.2	110.5
34	Missouri	111.4	108.5	110.5	110.1
35	Boise St.	112.2	106.7	111.5	110.1
36	Nebraska	110.9	108.3	110.5	109.9
37	North Carolina St.	109.3	111.4	108.3	109.7
38	Miami	109.0	109.9	109.4	109.4
39	BYU	108.9	107.0	110.3	108.7
40	Minnesota	109.3	107.5	109.1	108.6
41	Temple	107.2	109.4	108.5	108.4
42	Louisville	107.2	109.8	107.4	108.1
43	Texas Tech	111.0	101.6	110.8	107.8
44	Northwestern	106.8	107.8	106.8	107.1
45	Penn St.	105.7	107.8	105.9	106.5
46	Texas	107.1	105.8	106.6	106.5
47	Illinois	107.2	104.8	106.2	106.1
48	Memphis	105.2	105.1	106.7	105.7
49	South Carolina	107.3	103.6	105.8	105.6
50	Kentucky	106.3	102.9	105.6	104.9
51	Pittsburgh	103.7	105.8	104.9	104.8
52	Kansas St.	109.6	96.3	108.2	104.7
53	Colorado	105.8	101.5	105.1	104.1
54	Washington	103.7	101.9	104.1	103.2
55	Iowa	101.8	104.7	102.5	103.0
56	Duke	102.4	103.0	103.0	102.8
57	Cincinnati	101.8	102.9	102.8	102.5
58	Boston College	101.2	106.1	99.5	102.3
59	Virginia	103.0	100.1	102.5	101.9
60	Houston	97.7	105.8	100.4	101.3
61	Western Kentucky	100.9	98.5	102.0	100.5
62	Louisiana Tech	101.3	98.2	102.1	100.5
63	Navy	98.3	101.4	98.8	99.5
64	Toledo	99.7	97.7	100.6	99.3
65	Middle Tennessee	98.3	98.0	98.0	98.1
66	Purdue	98.8	98.2	96.8	97.9
67	Bowling Green	95.3	99.8	97.4	97.5
68	Wake Forest	95.5	100.2	94.5	96.7
69	Air Force	94.7	99.9	94.5	96.4
70	Rutgers	98.0	94.9	96.1	96.3
71	Washington St.	98.5	93.3	96.7	96.2
72	Marshall	95.8	95.6	96.4	95.9
73	Vanderbilt	98.2	92.2	97.1	95.8
74	San Diego St.	93.7	98.9	94.7	95.8
75	Syracuse	94.4	98.7	93.8	95.6
76	Georgia Southern	94.5	96.6	95.0	95.4
77	Utah St.	95.9	94.4	96.0	95.4
78	Indiana	94.8	96.4	94.6	95.3
79	Northern Illinois	94.2	96.8	94.6	95.2
80	Western Michigan	94.6	95.1	95.5	95.1
81	Colorado St.	96.3	93.8	94.8	95.0
82	Maryland	95.3	93.0	94.2	94.2
83	Iowa St.	95.7	92.4	94.6	94.2
84	Tulsa	91.5	97.4	92.9	93.9
85	Ohio	91.5	96.4	93.2	93.7
86	Appalachian St.	92.0	95.0	94.1	93.7
87	Hawaii	91.8	94.0	92.4	92.7
88	Nevada	91.4	95.3	90.9	92.5
89	Oregon St.	92.8	91.1	91.7	91.9
90	East Carolina	90.0	94.5	90.1	91.5
91	Central Florida	89.4	93.2	90.8	91.1
92	Florida International	89.3	92.1	91.2	90.9
93	San Jose St.	90.2	92.9	89.5	90.9
94	Arkansas St.	90.5	90.3	91.5	90.8
95	New Mexico	90.6	91.4	90.0	90.7
96	Fresno St.	88.1	95.1	87.4	90.2
97	South Florida	88.1	94.9	87.5	90.2
98	Rice	87.8	92.6	88.6	89.7
99	SMU	88.1	92.0	88.2	89.4
100	Massachusetts	87.5	91.1	89.1	89.2
101	Tulane	87.9	90.3	86.0	88.1
102	Buffalo	83.8	91.3	86.4	87.2
103	UL-Lafayette	85.3	89.4	85.7	86.8
104	Southern Mississippi	86.5	87.0	85.5	86.3
105	Ball St.	84.9	87.8	85.8	86.2
106	Akron	83.0	89.5	84.4	85.6
107	Central Michigan	83.0	88.9	84.9	85.6
108	Texas St.	83.8	87.6	83.5	85.0
109	Kent St.	83.2	86.0	83.9	84.4
110	Connecticut	81.8	87.9	82.0	83.9
111	Florida Atlantic	82.0	86.2	82.6	83.6
112	Old Dominion	80.7	88.0	79.8	82.8
113	UTEP	81.8	84.8	81.6	82.7
114	North Texas	79.9	86.4	80.4	82.2
115	South Alabama	77.9	85.7	79.7	81.1
116	Army	76.9	87.6	78.2	80.9
117	UL-Monroe	81.7	78.3	81.0	80.3
118	UNLV	79.2	81.6	79.9	80.2
119	Miami (O)	76.6	83.0	76.7	78.8
120	UT-San Antonio	77.2	80.7	78.3	78.7
121	Eastern Michigan	75.0	84.9	75.0	78.3
122	Wyoming	78.0	80.0	76.2	78.1
123	Kansas	78.9	72.6	76.6	76.0
124	Troy	75.3	75.0	77.0	75.8
125	Georgia St.	75.7	74.5	75.4	75.2
126	New Mexico St.	73.6	74.8	73.5	74.0
127	Idaho	70.6	79.1	72.1	73.9
128	Charlotte	69.0	71.0	68.5	69.5

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Temple	1-0	3-0	107.2	109.4	108.5	108.4
Cincinnati	0-1	2-1	101.8	102.9	102.8	102.5
East Carolina	0-1	1-2	90.0	94.5	90.1	91.5
Central Florida	0-0	0-3	89.4	93.2	90.8	91.1
South Florida	0-0	1-2	88.1	94.9	87.5	90.2
Connecticut	0-0	2-1	81.8	87.9	82.0	83.9
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	0-0	3-0	105.2	105.1	106.7	105.7
Houston	0-0	2-0	97.7	105.8	100.4	101.3
Navy	1-0	2-0	98.3	101.4	98.8	99.5
Tulsa	0-0	2-1	91.5	97.4	92.9	93.9
SMU	0-0	1-2	88.1	92.0	88.2	89.4
Tulane	0-0	1-2	87.9	90.3	86.0	88.1
AAC Averages			93.9	97.9	94.6	95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	1-0	3-0	115.3	116.5	115.2	115.7
Florida St.	1-0	3-0	114.9	115.3	113.6	114.6
North Carolina St.	0-0	3-0	109.3	111.4	108.3	109.7
Louisville	0-1	0-3	107.2	109.8	107.4	108.1
Boston College	0-1	2-1	101.2	106.1	99.5	102.3
Wake Forest	0-1	2-1	95.5	100.2	94.5	96.7
Syracuse	1-0	3-0	94.4	98.7	93.8	95.6
Coastal Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia Tech	0-0	2-1	123.0	115.0	122.6	120.2
Virginia Tech	0-0	2-1	115.4	111.8	115.8	114.3
North Carolina	0-0	2-1	113.7	113.7	113.3	113.6
Miami	0-0	3-0	109.0	109.9	109.4	109.4
Pittsburgh	0-0	2-1	103.7	105.8	104.9	104.8
Duke	0-0	2-1	102.4	103.0	103.0	102.8
Virginia	0-0	1-2	103.0	100.1	102.5	101.9
ACC Averages			107.7	108.4	107.4	107.8
Big 12 Conference
	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
TCU	0-0	3-0	127.4	117.2	128.5	124.4
Baylor	0-0	2-0	123.7	119.8	124.2	122.6
Oklahoma	0-0	3-0	121.1	118.4	121.4	120.3
West Virginia	0-0	2-0	115.0	109.6	114.4	113.0
Oklahoma St.	0-0	3-0	112.0	112.6	112.7	112.4
Texas	0-0	1-2	107.1	105.8	106.6	106.5
Texas Tech	0-0	3-0	111.0	101.6	110.8	107.8
Kansas St.	0-0	3-0	109.6	96.3	108.2	104.7
Iowa St.	0-0	1-2	95.7	92.4	94.6	94.2
Kansas	0-0	0-2	78.9	72.6	76.6	76.0
Big 12 Averages			110.2	104.6	109.8	108.2
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	0-0	3-0	133.4	124.0	134.3	130.6
Michigan St.	0-0	3-0	121.2	115.3	121.1	119.2
Michigan	0-0	2-1	112.8	108.9	112.1	111.3
Penn St.	1-0	2-1	105.7	107.8	105.9	106.5
Rutgers	0-1	1-2	98.0	94.9	96.1	96.3
Indiana	0-0	3-0	94.8	96.4	94.6	95.3
Maryland	0-0	2-1	95.3	93.0	94.2	94.2
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	0-0	2-1	111.2	112.0	110.2	111.1
Nebraska	0-0	1-2	110.9	108.3	110.5	109.9
Minnesota	0-0	2-1	109.3	107.5	109.1	108.6
Northwestern	0-0	3-0	106.8	107.8	106.8	107.1
Illinois	0-0	2-1	107.2	104.8	106.2	106.1
Iowa	0-0	3-0	101.8	104.7	102.5	103.0
Purdue	0-0	1-2	98.8	98.2	96.8	97.9
Big Ten Averages			107.7	106.0	107.2	106.9
Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	1-0	2-1	100.9	98.5	102.0	100.5
Middle Tennessee	1-0	2-1	98.3	98.0	98.0	98.1
Marshall	0-0	2-1	95.8	95.6	96.4	95.9
Florida International	0-0	2-1	89.3	92.1	91.2	90.9
Florida Atlantic	0-0	0-3	82.0	86.2	82.6	83.6
Old Dominion	0-0	2-1	80.7	88.0	79.8	82.8
Charlotte	0-1	2-1	69.0	71.0	68.5	69.5
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	0-1	1-2	101.3	98.2	102.1	100.5
Rice	1-0	2-1	87.8	92.6	88.6	89.7
Southern Mississippi	0-0	2-1	86.5	87.0	85.5	86.3
UTEP	0-0	1-2	81.8	84.8	81.6	82.7
North Texas	0-1	0-2	79.9	86.4	80.4	82.2
UT-San Antonio	0-0	0-3	77.2	80.7	78.3	78.7
CUSA Averages			87.0	89.2	87.3	87.8
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		3-0	123.4	119.4	123.9	122.2
BYU		2-1	108.9	107.0	110.3	108.7
Army		0-3	76.9	87.6	78.2	80.9
Independents Averages			103.1	104.7	104.1	104.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Bowling Green	0-0	1-2	95.3	99.8	97.4	97.5
Ohio	0-0	3-0	91.5	96.4	93.2	93.7
Massachusetts	0-0	0-2	87.5	91.1	89.1	89.2
Buffalo	0-0	2-1	83.8	91.3	86.4	87.2
Akron	0-0	1-2	83.0	89.5	84.4	85.6
Kent St.	0-0	1-2	83.2	86.0	83.9	84.4
Miami (O)	0-0	1-2	76.6	83.0	76.7	78.8
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	0-0	2-0	99.7	97.7	100.6	99.3
Northern Illinois	0-0	2-1	94.2	96.8	94.6	95.2
Western Michigan	0-0	1-2	94.6	95.1	95.5	95.1
Ball St.	1-0	2-1	84.9	87.8	85.8	86.2
Central Michigan	0-0	1-2	83.0	88.9	84.9	85.6
Eastern Michigan	0-1	1-2	75.0	84.9	75.0	78.3
MAC Averages			87.1	91.4	88.3	88.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	0-0	2-1	112.2	106.7	111.5	110.1
Air Force	1-0	2-1	94.7	99.9	94.5	96.4
Utah St.	0-0	1-2	95.9	94.4	96.0	95.4
Colorado St.	0-0	1-2	96.3	93.8	94.8	95.0
New Mexico	0-0	1-2	90.6	91.4	90.0	90.7
Wyoming	0-0	0-3	78.0	80.0	76.2	78.1
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	0-0	1-2	93.7	98.9	94.7	95.8
Hawaii	0-0	2-1	91.8	94.0	92.4	92.7
Nevada	0-0	1-2	91.4	95.3	90.9	92.5
San Jose St.	0-1	1-2	90.2	92.9	89.5	90.9
Fresno St.	0-0	1-2	88.1	95.1	87.4	90.2
UNLV	0-0	0-3	79.2	81.6	79.9	80.2
MWC Averages			91.8	93.7	91.5	92.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	0-0	2-1	122.8	114.8	122.2	119.9
Stanford	1-0	2-1	118.4	117.2	118.6	118.1
California	0-0	3-0	118.1	113.1	118.6	116.6
Washington	0-0	2-1	103.7	101.9	104.1	103.2
Washington St.	0-0	2-1	98.5	93.3	96.7	96.2
Oregon St.	0-0	2-1	92.8	91.1	91.7	91.9
South Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
USC	0-1	2-1	121.5	118.2	121.9	120.5
UCLA	0-0	3-0	122.6	116.1	120.5	119.7
Utah	0-0	3-0	117.8	112.1	117.0	115.6
Arizona St.	0-0	2-1	114.7	109.4	113.2	112.4
Arizona	0-0	3-0	114.9	107.8	113.0	111.9
Colorado	0-0	2-1	105.8	101.5	105.1	104.1
Pac-12 Averages			112.6	108.0	111.9	110.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	2-0	3-0	124.4	116.8	123.7	121.6
Tennessee	0-0	2-1	120.6	116.4	120.4	119.1
Florida	1-0	3-0	111.8	108.4	111.2	110.5
Missouri	0-0	3-0	111.4	108.5	110.5	110.1
South Carolina	0-2	1-2	107.3	103.6	105.8	105.6
Kentucky	1-1	2-1	106.3	102.9	105.6	104.9
Vanderbilt	0-1	1-2	98.2	92.2	97.1	95.8
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ole Miss	1-0	3-0	130.2	123.8	128.8	127.6
LSU	2-0	2-0	125.8	121.8	125.6	124.4
Alabama	0-1	2-1	125.0	123.3	124.6	124.3
Texas A&M	0-0	3-0	120.4	118.6	119.4	119.5
Auburn	0-1	2-1	116.9	114.9	115.9	115.9
Arkansas	0-0	1-2	117.4	111.1	116.3	114.9
Mississippi St.	0-1	2-1	113.4	108.9	113.4	111.9
SEC Averages			116.4	112.2	115.6	114.7
Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia Southern	0-0	2-1	94.5	96.6	95.0	95.4
Appalachian St.	0-0	1-1	92.0	95.0	94.1	93.7
Arkansas St.	0-0	1-2	90.5	90.3	91.5	90.8
UL-Lafayette	0-0	1-1	85.3	89.4	85.7	86.8
Texas St.	0-0	1-2	83.8	87.6	83.5	85.0
South Alabama	0-0	2-1	77.9	85.7	79.7	81.1
UL-Monroe	0-0	1-1	81.7	78.3	81.0	80.3
Troy	0-0	1-2	75.3	75.0	77.0	75.8
Georgia St.	1-0	1-2	75.7	74.5	75.4	75.2
New Mexico St.	0-1	0-3	73.6	74.8	73.5	74.0
Idaho	0-0	1-2	70.6	79.1	72.1	73.9
Sun Belt Averages			81.9	84.2	82.6	82.9

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	116.4	112.2	115.6	114.7
2	Pac-12	112.6	108.0	111.9	110.9
3	Big 12	110.2	104.6	109.8	108.2
4	ACC	107.7	108.4	107.4	107.8
5	Big Ten	107.7	106.0	107.2	106.9
6	Independents	103.1	104.7	104.1	104.0
7	AAC	93.9	97.9	94.6	95.5
8	MWC	91.8	93.7	91.5	92.3
9	MAC	87.1	91.4	88.3	88.9
10	CUSA	87.0	89.2	87.3	87.8
11	Sun Belt	81.9	84.2	82.6	82.9

 

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Boise St.	112.2	106.7	111.5	110.1
2	BYU	108.9	107.0	110.3	108.7
3	Temple	107.2	109.4	108.5	108.4
4	Memphis	105.2	105.1	106.7	105.7
5	Cincinnati	101.8	102.9	102.8	102.5
6	Houston	97.7	105.8	100.4	101.3
7	Western Kentucky	100.9	98.5	102.0	100.5
8	Louisiana Tech	101.3	98.2	102.1	100.5
9	Navy	98.3	101.4	98.8	99.5
10	Toledo	99.7	97.7	100.6	99.3

 

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
10	Wake Forest	95.5	100.2	94.5	96.7
9	Rutgers	98.0	94.9	96.1	96.3
8	Washington St.	98.5	93.3	96.7	96.2
7	Vanderbilt	98.2	92.2	97.1	95.8
6	Syracuse	94.4	98.7	93.8	95.6
5	Indiana	94.8	96.4	94.6	95.3
4	Maryland	95.3	93.0	94.2	94.2
3	Iowa St.	95.7	92.4	94.6	94.2
2	Oregon St.	92.8	91.1	91.7	91.9
1	Kansas	78.9	72.6	76.6	76.0

 

FCS Top 10
#	Team	PiRate
1	Jacksonville St.	97.1
2	South Dakota St.	94.1
3	North Dakota St.	92.3
4	Coastal Carolina	89.5
5	Chattanooga	89.0
6	Harvard	88.6
7	Illinois St.	88.2
8	Northern Iowa	88.1
9	Portland St.	87.8
10	James Madison	87.5

 

PiRate Speculation on Playoff Teams

NCAA Playoffs
1	Ohio St.
2	Ole Miss
3	TCU
4	Notre Dame

 

This Week’s Games
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Thursday, September 24
Memphis	Cincinnati	6.4	5.2	6.9
Friday, September 25		PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia	Boise St.	-5.7	-3.1	-5.5
Oregon St.	Stanford	-22.6	-23.1	-23.9
Saturday, September 26		PiRate	Mean	Bias
Connecticut	Navy	-14.0	-11.0	-14.3
Duke	Georgia Tech	-18.1	-9.5	-17.1
East Carolina	Virginia Tech	-22.4	-14.3	-22.7
Michigan	BYU	6.9	4.9	4.8
Michigan St.	Central Michigan	40.2	28.4	38.2
Purdue	Bowling Green	6.0	0.9	1.9
Rutgers	Kansas	21.6	20.8	22.0
South Carolina	Central Florida	20.9	13.4	18.0
Syracuse	LSU	-28.4	-20.1	-28.8
Nebraska	Southern Miss.	27.4	24.3	28.0
Wake Forest	Indiana	3.2	6.3	2.4
Boston College	Northern Illinois	10.0	12.3	7.9
Arkansas (Arlington, TX)	Texas A&M	-3.0	-7.5	-3.1
Louisiana Tech	Florida Int’l	15.0	9.1	13.9
West Virginia	Maryland	21.7	18.6	22.2
Baylor	Rice	37.9	29.2	37.6
Arizona	UCLA	-4.7	-5.3	-4.5
Arizona St.	USC	-3.8	-5.8	-5.7
Oregon	Utah	8.0	5.7	8.2
Wyoming	New Mexico	-10.1	-8.9	-11.3
Florida	Tennessee	-5.8	-5.0	-6.2
Houston	Texas St.	16.4	20.7	19.4
Notre Dame	Massachusetts	38.9	31.3	37.8
Ohio St.	Western Michigan	41.8	31.9	41.8
Penn St.	San Diego St.	16.0	12.9	15.2
Iowa	North Texas	24.9	21.3	25.1
Minnesota	Ohio U	20.8	14.1	18.9
Texas	Oklahoma St.	-1.9	-3.8	-3.1
Old Dominion	Appalachian St.	-8.8	-4.5	-11.8
Western Kentucky	Miami (O)	26.8	18.0	27.8
Buffalo	Nevada	-3.6	0.0	-0.5
Kent St.	Marshall	-10.1	-7.1	-10.0
Alabama	UL-Monroe	46.3	48.0	46.6
Illinois	Middle Tennessee	11.9	9.8	11.2
Texas Tech	TCU	-13.4	-12.6	-14.7
Washington	California	-11.4	-8.2	-11.5
Eastern Michigan	Army	0.6	-0.2	-0.7
Ole Miss	Vanderbilt	35.0	34.6	34.7
Charlotte	Florida Atlantic	-10.5	-12.7	-11.6
UT-San Antonio	Colorado St.	-16.6	-10.6	-14.3
UL-Lafayette	Akron	5.3	1.9	4.3
Toledo	Arkansas St.	12.2	10.4	12.1
Kentucky	Missouri	-2.1	-2.6	-1.9
Auburn	Mississippi St.	6.5	9.0	5.5
Northwestern	Ball St.	24.4	22.5	23.5
South Alabama	North Carolina St.	-28.4	-22.7	-25.6
Wisconsin	Hawaii	23.4	22.0	21.8
Idaho	Georgia Southern	-20.9	-14.5	-19.9
San Jose St.	Fresno St.	4.6	0.3	0.6
FBS vs. FCS	Week 4	PiRate
Georgia	Southern U	50
North Carolina	Delaware	35
Colorado	Nicholls St.	43
Louisville	Samford	23
SMU	James Madison	7
UTEP	Incarnate Word	18
UNLV	Idaho St.	15

 

PiRate Ratings College Football Preview For Week 3–September 17-19, 2015

Beginner’s Luck
Two weeks into the season still leaves a lot of room for change, but the PiRates have noticed a novel theme in the college football season.  Most of the first-time head coaches appear to be top-rate this year.  Let’s take a look at the top five new hires and what their new teams have done.

Coach: Tom Herman, Houston
Former Position: Offensive coordinator at Ohio State
The Cougars are 2-0 with a win at Louisville.  UH has not been this balanced on offense since Bill Yeoman’s veer teams of the 1960’s and 1970’s moved the ball up and down the field.  Houston now becomes one of three or four American Athletic Conference teams as a legitimate contender for the Group of 5’s automatic bid to a New Year’s 6 Bowl.

Coach: Chad Morris, SMU
Former Position: Offensive coordinator at Clemson
The Mustangs 1-11 season in 2014 left this program in the same shape it was coming out of the Death Penalty of the 1980’s.  Morris immediately brought life back to the program, and SMU competed toe to toe for one half against Baylor and then followed that up with an impressive win over North Texas.  Against the same two teams last year, the Mustangs were outscored 88-6.  They topped 25 points just once all year, averaging just 11 points per game.  SMU has scored 52 points in their first two games this year.

Coach: Philip Montgomery, Tulsa
Former Position: Offensive coordinator at Baylor
Tulsa historically has been a football power at the level just below the big time, frequently peaking with teams capable of competing head to head against big time conference foes.  Glenn Dobbs led TU to glory in the early 1940’s, and then he returned as head coach to guide the  Golden Hurricane to become the first college team to throw the ball all over the field 40-50 times a game back in the early 1960’s.  Adding legendary great Sammy Baugh as an assistant coach made Tulsa the greatest passing team of all time up to that point in 1964.  Later, Tulsa produced some power teams under Coach John Cooper and then for a few years under Todd Graham.
Now, it looks like TU has found their next great coach in Montgomery.  The Golden Hurricane explosive offense has returned with outbursts of 40+ points in both games so far.  Tulsa could very easily return to a bowl this year after barely finishing ahead of SMU last year in the AAC West standings.

Coach: Pat Narduzzi, Pittsburgh
Former Position: Defensive coordinator at Michigan State
Narduzzi’s personal touch on this team’s defense showed up in force last week when Pitt held Akron to 110 total yards (47 rush, 63 pass), a year after the Zips defeated Pitt 21-10.  The Panthers looked about the same offensively as last year, when they won six games and earned a bid to the Armed Forces Bowl.  They did not shine on the attack side, but they made no mistakes and controlled the line of scrimmage for most of the afternoon.  It will be interesting to see how the Panthers fare at Iowa this week; Iowa edged Pitt 24-20 last year.

Coach: Mike Bobo, Colorado State
Former Position: Offensive coordinator at Georgia
Colorado State lost a great coach when Jim McElwain took the Florida job.  So, the Rams did what they had done before–find the best SEC offensive coordinator they could get.  Bobo took the bait and left Athens, Georgia for Fort Collins.  CSU went head to head with Big Ten contender Minnesota, losing in overtime to fall to 1-1 with a pivotal game against rival Colorado this week at Invesco Field in Denver.  Bobo’s offense was criticized at times when he was at Georgia, but the Rams’ offense has been effective on the ground and through the air.  Look for CSU to return to a bowl this season.

Key Games
Week three brings the college football enough important games to stay glued to the sofa in the man-cave all day.  Let’s look at the best matchups of the week.

(times given are EDT)

Air Force at Michigan State: 12 Noon on ABC
After taking down Oregon, the Spartans must avoid a letdown against the option offense of the Air Force Academy.  MSU should win this game by double digits, but if they rest on their laurels this week, the Falcons could keep this game close.  It is worth watching just to see how Sparty defends the option and if their offense comes out flat or ready to play.

Northwestern at Duke: 12:30 PM on ESPN3
Two teams with identical 2-0 records to open the season, and both with two impressive wins, face off in Durham.  Duke is now 21-8 in their last 29 games.  Northwestern looks like a team with the potential to be a top contender for the Big Ten West title this year, controlling Stanford for four quarters and then easily beating FCS Eastern Illinois last week.  Duke is trying to earn a bowl bid for the fourth consecutive season and could be enjoying their best three-year period of football since 1960-61-62.  The winner of this game goes from pretender to contender in their respective league.

Auburn at LSU: 3:30 PM on CBS
What happened with Auburn last week?  The Tigers looked like a lucky team to escape Jacksonville State with a win.  They did not look all that fantastic for half their game against Louisville, and then when Louisville lost to Houston in game two, the win over the Cardinals did not look impressive.
LSU mauled Mississippi State for 20 minutes, before the Bulldogs looked like the better team for the final 40 minutes.  It cannot be discounted that the Tigers were at a disadvantage having had their first game cancelled, while State played a game.

The loser of this game will have a lot to answer for.  If Auburn wins on the road, the rabid LSU fans will begin to campaign for a new direction, especially if the Bayou Bengals cannot pass the ball.  If LSU wins but not impressively and unable to do much but run the ball, the fans might still campaign for change.  If LSU wins impressively and shows life in their passing game, then the Auburn fans will begin to wonder why this team is underachieving so.

Georgia Tech at Notre Dame: 3:30 PM on NBC
This game really intrigues us.  Brian Kelly’s teams generally control their opponents’ running game and try to slow down the passing game.  Only when the other team has the better horses does a Kelly-coached team give up a lot of rushing yards.

Can Georgia Tech’s spread option attack find enough success to win on the road against a Top 10 team?  Better yet, can the Yellow Jackets’ defense hold the Irish under 30 points?  Even without their best quarterback and tight end, Notre Dame has the talent to continue moving the ball and scoring points.  The winner of this game deserves consideration in the Top 5.

Nebraska at Miami: 3:30 PM on ABC or ESPN2 (by region)
Al Golden has a chance to win major Brownie points in the pursuit of keeping his employment in Coral Gables.  If the Hurricanes beat Nebraska Saturday, they will be 3-0 for just the second time since 2004, when they were last ranked near the top.

Nebraska’s loss to BYU doesn’t look so bad now that BYU beat Boise State, but the Cornhuskers are a team in transition, and a win on the road in the heat and humidity of South Florida may be asking too much of this team.

California at Texas: 7:30 PM on Fox
This game became a lot more interesting in the past 24 hours, because Texas fired controversial Athletics’ Director Steve Patterson thanks in part to heavy booster complaints.  It already was going to be interesting if for no other reason than to see if Cal is a contender or pretender in the Pac-12 North.  The Bears might be on the verge of challenging Oregon for division supremacy, and this game along with the primetime game will help solve that riddle.

Florida at Kentucky: 7:30 PM on SEC network/Watchespn
What you were supposed to be looking at when these two teams squared off was a battle for 5th place in the SEC East.  Now, who knows?  This could be for a top three spot in the division.  Kentucky won at South Carolina last week to improve to 2-0.  Florida has two wins over lackluster competition, but the Gators have historically started the season 2-0 with wins over mediocre or worse teams.  The winner of this game will still be considered an also-ran in the league, but at 3-0, the winner will be halfway to bowl eligibility.  You may ask, “when is the last time Kentucky began a season 3-0 with at least one of those wins in conference play?”

The answer is: 1964

Stanford at USC: 8:00 PM on ABC
Stanford did absolutely nothing in their opener against Northwestern and then looked pedestrian last week against Cental Florida.  Meanwhile, USC looked like the Trojans of old in blowout wins over Arkansas State and Idaho.  This game will reveal whether USC is ready to contend for national honors once again and whether Stanford is an also-ran in the Pac-12.

Ole Miss at Alabama: 9:15 PM on ESPN
This is the one game not to miss this week.  Even if you don’t like the SEC, this should be a rock’em, sock’em battle.  Alabama’s dreams of having a perfect dream season in 2014 ended in Oxford against the Rebels last year.  At the time Ole Miss appeared to be the second best team in the nation and second best team in their state.  The Rebels’ offense was too inconsistent, and Ole Miss lost games in the back half of a tough schedule before getting shellacked in the Peach Bowl against TCU.

Alabama has begun the season with so-so wins over Wisconsin and Middle Tennessee.  They were very vanilla, and the offense looked stoppable.  We’ve seen this before in the past.  In almost every national title season, the Crimson Tide began the year relying on smart play, defense, and special teams, and then as the weeks progressed, the offense improved consistently.  This is the first game where ‘Bama absolutely must get their offense untracked, for Ole Miss will score points, even on the Tide defense.

The Rebels’ offense is more consistent and just as lethal this year as last.  Their defense is not top-rate like ‘Bama’s, but they have enough talent to come up with big plays.  If the Alabama quarterback situation does not come up with an improved effort, then the Rebels have a chance to become the top banana in the toughest division in college football.

BYU at UCLA: 10:30 PM on Fox Sports1
UCLA might be in a battle with USC just like the good ole days when the Bruins and Trojans faced off in November to decide the Rose Bowl participant.  This year, that game could decide more, like the Pac-12 South representative in the conference title game, and one of the four playoff spots.

Can UCLA get to the promised land with a true freshman quarterback?  Josh Rosen plays like anything but a true freshman.  Coach Jim Mora, Jr. can protect him and not force him to win games by himself.  The Bruin defense is improved, and the offense does not rely solely on the passing game, so yes, this team can make it to the USC game with a chance to win the division.

About BYU, the Cougars cannot be considered “under the radar” after beginning the season with wins over Nebraska and Boise St.  Even without their top quarterback, BYU moved the ball, while their defense looked strong at times in both wins.

The winner of this game will be one of the better 3-0 teams in the nation and yet not receive the respect due them.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	136.9	127.0	138.1	134.0
2	Ole Miss	129.5	122.8	128.0	126.8
3	TCU	129.9	118.3	131.3	126.5
4	Alabama	125.2	123.8	124.9	124.6
5	LSU	124.5	120.0	124.1	122.9
6	Baylor	123.7	119.8	124.2	122.6
7	USC	123.6	120.1	123.7	122.5
8	Notre Dame	123.0	119.3	123.4	121.9
9	Oregon	124.4	116.2	124.1	121.6
10	Oklahoma	122.4	119.0	123.0	121.5
11	UCLA	124.1	117.5	122.0	121.2
12	Georgia Tech	123.5	115.2	123.2	120.6
13	Texas A&M	121.2	119.3	120.6	120.4
14	Michigan St.	121.9	115.7	122.2	119.9
15	Georgia	123.1	114.7	122.0	119.9
16	Tennessee	120.4	116.2	120.2	118.9
17	Arkansas	120.1	114.3	119.3	117.9
18	Auburn	118.5	117.0	117.7	117.7
19	California	118.4	113.3	119.1	116.9
20	Stanford	116.3	115.3	116.8	116.1
21	Utah	118.1	111.5	117.4	115.7
22	Clemson	115.1	116.4	115.0	115.5
23	Florida St.	114.9	115.1	113.4	114.5
24	Wisconsin	113.4	114.4	113.4	113.7
25	Virginia Tech	114.3	110.3	114.4	113.0
26	West Virginia	115.0	109.6	114.4	113.0
27	Missouri	114.2	110.5	113.5	112.7
28	Arizona St.	115.0	109.2	113.6	112.6
29	Michigan	113.4	109.4	113.0	111.9
30	Mississippi St.	113.1	108.6	113.1	111.6
31	Oklahoma St.	110.9	111.1	111.3	111.1
32	North Carolina	111.3	111.2	110.5	111.0
33	Arizona	113.9	106.8	112.0	110.9
34	Minnesota	111.0	109.0	111.1	110.4
35	Florida	111.6	108.1	110.9	110.2
36	Boise St.	112.0	106.5	111.3	109.9
37	Miami	109.2	110.3	109.7	109.7
38	Temple	108.3	110.5	109.8	109.5
39	North Carolina St.	109.2	111.0	108.2	109.5
40	Nebraska	110.4	107.6	109.9	109.3
41	Illinois	109.6	107.3	109.0	108.6
42	Louisville	107.7	110.2	107.9	108.6
43	BYU	107.4	105.6	108.8	107.3
44	South Carolina	108.6	105.7	107.5	107.3
45	Northwestern	106.5	107.4	106.0	106.6
46	Texas	106.8	105.6	106.1	106.2
47	Penn St.	105.1	107.3	105.2	105.9
48	Memphis	105.4	105.0	106.9	105.8
49	Kansas St.	110.7	96.6	109.2	105.5
50	Pittsburgh	104.0	106.1	105.6	105.2
51	Kentucky	106.5	103.2	105.9	105.2
52	Texas Tech	108.6	98.7	108.1	105.1
53	Colorado	106.2	101.8	105.7	104.6
54	Cincinnati	103.5	104.4	104.8	104.2
55	Duke	102.7	103.4	103.8	103.3
56	Boston College	101.7	106.8	100.2	102.9
57	Washington	103.5	101.5	103.6	102.9
58	Virginia	103.7	100.8	103.2	102.6
59	Iowa	101.5	104.4	101.8	102.6
60	Houston	97.7	105.8	100.4	101.3
61	Western Kentucky	100.9	98.7	101.9	100.5
62	Louisiana Tech	100.5	98.2	101.4	100.0
63	Toledo	100.0	98.2	101.3	99.8
64	Purdue	99.9	99.7	98.2	99.3
65	Navy	97.6	100.4	97.6	98.5
66	San Diego St.	95.9	101.1	97.2	98.1
67	Wake Forest	96.3	100.9	95.4	97.5
68	Bowling Green	95.1	99.9	97.2	97.4
69	Rutgers	98.9	95.7	97.1	97.2
70	Syracuse	95.6	99.8	95.0	96.8
71	Washington St.	99.0	93.1	97.4	96.5
72	Marshall	95.8	95.6	96.4	95.9
73	Vanderbilt	98.2	92.2	97.1	95.8
74	Utah St.	96.1	94.8	96.5	95.8
75	Middle Tennessee	95.8	95.3	95.2	95.4
76	Air Force	93.7	99.2	93.1	95.3
77	Indiana	94.8	96.2	94.7	95.2
78	Western Michigan	94.6	95.1	95.5	95.1
79	Georgia Southern	94.2	96.3	94.7	95.1
80	Colorado St.	96.2	93.8	94.5	94.8
81	Central Florida	92.2	96.0	93.6	93.9
82	Iowa St.	95.4	91.9	93.9	93.7
83	Appalachian St.	92.0	95.0	94.1	93.7
84	Ohio	91.5	96.4	93.2	93.7
85	Maryland	94.8	91.6	93.1	93.2
86	Hawaii	91.8	94.0	92.4	92.7
87	East Carolina	90.7	95.5	91.3	92.5
88	Northern Illinois	91.3	94.4	91.4	92.4
89	Tulsa	89.7	96.3	90.8	92.3
90	San Jose St.	90.9	94.5	90.4	91.9
91	Nevada	90.6	94.6	89.7	91.6
92	South Florida	88.6	96.3	88.6	91.2
93	Oregon St.	92.1	89.5	90.8	90.8
94	Florida International	89.1	91.9	91.0	90.7
95	New Mexico	90.3	91.6	89.6	90.5
96	Fresno St.	87.8	95.7	87.0	90.2
97	Arkansas St.	89.0	88.8	90.0	89.3
98	Rice	87.4	91.8	87.9	89.0
99	Massachusetts	86.1	89.7	87.5	87.8
100	Tulane	86.9	89.3	85.0	87.1
101	UL-Lafayette	85.3	89.4	85.7	86.8
102	SMU	84.9	90.2	84.7	86.6
103	Texas St.	84.2	88.9	84.3	85.8
104	Buffalo	82.5	89.8	84.7	85.7
105	Ball St.	84.7	86.8	85.4	85.6
106	Southern Mississippi	86.1	85.7	84.7	85.5
107	Akron	82.7	89.2	84.1	85.3
108	Florida Atlantic	83.3	87.7	84.3	85.1
109	Central Michigan	81.8	87.8	83.7	84.4
110	UTEP	82.1	85.4	82.1	83.2
111	Old Dominion	80.8	88.4	79.9	83.0
112	North Texas	80.3	87.2	81.1	82.9
113	Kent St.	81.2	84.2	81.6	82.3
114	Connecticut	79.5	86.4	79.5	81.8
115	Army	76.4	87.2	77.6	80.4
116	UL-Monroe	81.7	78.3	81.0	80.3
117	UT-San Antonio	78.3	82.2	79.7	80.1
118	UNLV	78.6	81.1	79.0	79.6
119	Eastern Michigan	75.2	85.9	75.4	78.8
120	South Alabama	75.4	83.2	76.9	78.5
121	Wyoming	77.8	80.5	75.8	78.0
122	Miami (O)	75.4	82.0	75.2	77.5
123	Kansas	78.9	72.6	76.6	76.0
124	Idaho	70.6	79.1	72.1	73.9
125	Georgia St.	74.2	73.2	73.6	73.7
126	New Mexico St.	73.3	74.2	73.0	73.5
127	Charlotte	72.0	74.2	71.8	72.7
128	Troy	72.6	72.1	73.3	72.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Temple	1-0	2-0	108.3	110.5	109.8	109.5
Cincinnati	0-1	1-1	103.5	104.4	104.8	104.2
Central Florida	0-0	0-2	92.2	96.0	93.6	93.9
East Carolina	0-0	1-1	90.7	95.5	91.3	92.5
South Florida	0-0	1-1	88.6	96.3	88.6	91.2
Connecticut	0-0	2-0	79.5	86.4	79.5	81.8
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	0-0	2-0	105.4	105.0	106.9	105.8
Houston	0-0	2-0	97.7	105.8	100.4	101.3
Navy	0-0	1-0	97.6	100.4	97.6	98.5
Tulsa	0-0	2-0	89.7	96.3	90.8	92.3
Tulane	0-0	0-2	86.9	89.3	85.0	87.1
SMU	0-0	1-1	84.9	90.2	84.7	86.6
AAC Averages			93.8	98.0	94.4	95.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	0-0	2-0	115.1	116.4	115.0	115.5
Florida St.	0-0	2-0	114.9	115.1	113.4	114.5
North Carolina St.	0-0	2-0	109.2	111.0	108.2	109.5
Louisville	0-0	0-2	107.7	110.2	107.9	108.6
Boston College	0-0	2-0	101.7	106.8	100.2	102.9
Wake Forest	0-1	1-1	96.3	100.9	95.4	97.5
Syracuse	1-0	2-0	95.6	99.8	95.0	96.8
Coastal Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia Tech	0-0	2-0	123.5	115.2	123.2	120.6
Virginia Tech	0-0	1-1	114.3	110.3	114.4	113.0
North Carolina	0-0	1-1	111.3	111.2	110.5	111.0
Miami	0-0	2-0	109.2	110.3	109.7	109.7
Pittsburgh	0-0	2-0	104.0	106.1	105.6	105.2
Duke	0-0	2-0	102.7	103.4	103.8	103.3
Virginia	0-0	0-2	103.7	100.8	103.2	102.6
ACC Averages			107.8	108.4	107.5	107.9
Big 12 Conference
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
TCU	0-0	2-0	129.9	118.3	131.3	126.5
Baylor	0-0	2-0	123.7	119.8	124.2	122.6
Oklahoma	0-0	2-0	122.4	119.0	123.0	121.5
West Virginia	0-0	2-0	115.0	109.6	114.4	113.0
Oklahoma St.	0-0	2-0	110.9	111.1	111.3	111.1
Texas	0-0	1-1	106.8	105.6	106.1	106.2
Kansas St.	0-0	2-0	110.7	96.6	109.2	105.5
Texas Tech	0-0	2-0	108.6	98.7	108.1	105.1
Iowa St.	0-0	1-1	95.4	91.9	93.9	93.7
Kansas	0-0	0-2	78.9	72.6	76.6	76.0
Big 12 Averages			110.2	104.3	109.8	108.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	0-0	2-0	136.9	127.0	138.1	134.0
Michigan St.	0-0	2-0	121.9	115.7	122.2	119.9
Michigan	0-0	1-1	113.4	109.4	113.0	111.9
Penn St.	0-0	1-1	105.1	107.3	105.2	105.9
Rutgers	0-0	1-1	98.9	95.7	97.1	97.2
Indiana	0-0	2-0	94.8	96.2	94.7	95.2
Maryland	0-0	1-1	94.8	91.6	93.1	93.2
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	0-0	1-1	113.4	114.4	113.4	113.7
Minnesota	0-0	1-1	111.0	109.0	111.1	110.4
Nebraska	0-0	1-1	110.4	107.6	109.9	109.3
Illinois	0-0	2-0	109.6	107.3	109.0	108.6
Northwestern	0-0	2-0	106.5	107.4	106.0	106.6
Iowa	0-0	2-0	101.5	104.4	101.8	102.6
Purdue	0-0	1-1	99.9	99.7	98.2	99.3
Big Ten Averages			108.4	106.6	108.1	107.7
Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	1-0	2-0	100.9	98.7	101.9	100.5
Marshall	0-0	1-1	95.8	95.6	96.4	95.9
Middle Tennessee	0-0	1-1	95.8	95.3	95.2	95.4
Florida International	0-0	1-1	89.1	91.9	91.0	90.7
Florida Atlantic	0-0	0-2	83.3	87.7	84.3	85.1
Old Dominion	0-0	2-0	80.8	88.4	79.9	83.0
Charlotte	0-0	2-0	72.0	74.2	71.8	72.7
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	0-1	1-1	100.5	98.2	101.4	100.0
Rice	0-0	1-1	87.4	91.8	87.9	89.0
Southern Mississippi	0-0	1-1	86.1	85.7	84.7	85.5
UTEP	0-0	0-2	82.1	85.4	82.1	83.2
North Texas	0-0	0-1	80.3	87.2	81.1	82.9
UT-San Antonio	0-0	0-2	78.3	82.2	79.7	80.1
CUSA Averages			87.1	89.4	87.5	88.0
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		2-0	123.0	119.3	123.4	121.9
BYU		2-0	107.4	105.6	108.8	107.3
Army		0-2	76.4	87.2	77.6	80.4
Independents Averages			102.3	104.0	103.3	103.2
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Bowling Green	0-0	1-1	95.1	99.9	97.2	97.4
Ohio	0-0	2-0	91.5	96.4	93.2	93.7
Massachusetts	0-0	0-1	86.1	89.7	87.5	87.8
Buffalo	0-0	1-1	82.5	89.8	84.7	85.7
Akron	0-0	0-2	82.7	89.2	84.1	85.3
Kent St.	0-0	1-1	81.2	84.2	81.6	82.3
Miami (O)	0-0	1-1	75.4	82.0	75.2	77.5
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	0-0	1-0	100.0	98.2	101.3	99.8
Western Michigan	0-0	0-2	94.6	95.1	95.5	95.1
Northern Illinois	0-0	2-0	91.3	94.4	91.4	92.4
Ball St.	0-0	1-1	84.7	86.8	85.4	85.6
Central Michigan	0-0	1-1	81.8	87.8	83.7	84.4
Eastern Michigan	0-0	1-1	75.2	85.9	75.4	78.8
MAC Averages			86.3	90.7	87.4	88.1
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	0-0	1-1	112.0	106.5	111.3	109.9
Utah St.	0-0	1-1	96.1	94.8	96.5	95.8
Air Force	1-0	2-0	93.7	99.2	93.1	95.3
Colorado St.	0-0	1-1	96.2	93.8	94.5	94.8
New Mexico	0-0	1-1	90.3	91.6	89.6	90.5
Wyoming	0-0	0-2	77.8	80.5	75.8	78.0
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	0-0	1-1	95.9	101.1	97.2	98.1
Hawaii	0-0	1-1	91.8	94.0	92.4	92.7
San Jose St.	0-1	1-1	90.9	94.5	90.4	91.9
Nevada	0-0	1-1	90.6	94.6	89.7	91.6
Fresno St.	0-0	1-1	87.8	95.7	87.0	90.2
UNLV	0-0	0-2	78.6	81.1	79.0	79.6
MWC Averages			91.8	94.0	91.4	92.4
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	0-0	1-1	124.4	116.2	124.1	121.6
California	0-0	2-0	118.4	113.3	119.1	116.9
Stanford	0-0	1-1	116.3	115.3	116.8	116.1
Washington	0-0	1-1	103.5	101.5	103.6	102.9
Washington St.	0-0	1-1	99.0	93.1	97.4	96.5
Oregon St.	0-0	1-1	92.1	89.5	90.8	90.8
South Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
USC	0-0	2-0	123.6	120.1	123.7	122.5
UCLA	0-0	2-0	124.1	117.5	122.0	121.2
Utah	0-0	2-0	118.1	111.5	117.4	115.7
Arizona St.	0-0	1-1	115.0	109.2	113.6	112.6
Arizona	0-0	2-0	113.9	106.8	112.0	110.9
Colorado	0-0	1-1	106.2	101.8	105.7	104.6
Pac-12 Averages			112.9	108.0	112.2	111.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	1-0	2-0	123.1	114.7	122.0	119.9
Tennessee	0-0	1-1	120.4	116.2	120.2	118.9
Missouri	0-0	2-0	114.2	110.5	113.5	112.7
Florida	0-0	2-0	111.6	108.1	110.9	110.2
South Carolina	0-1	1-1	108.6	105.7	107.5	107.3
Kentucky	1-0	2-0	106.5	103.2	105.9	105.2
Vanderbilt	0-1	0-2	98.2	92.2	97.1	95.8
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ole Miss	0-0	2-0	129.5	122.8	128.0	126.8
Alabama	0-0	2-0	125.2	123.8	124.9	124.6
LSU	1-0	1-0	124.5	120.0	124.1	122.9
Texas A&M	0-0	2-0	121.2	119.3	120.6	120.4
Arkansas	0-0	1-1	120.1	114.3	119.3	117.9
Auburn	0-0	2-0	118.5	117.0	117.7	117.7
Mississippi St.	0-1	1-1	113.1	108.6	113.1	111.6
SEC Averages			116.8	112.6	116.1	115.1
Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia Southern	0-0	1-1	94.2	96.3	94.7	95.1
Appalachian St.	0-0	1-1	92.0	95.0	94.1	93.7
Arkansas St.	0-0	0-2	89.0	88.8	90.0	89.3
UL-Lafayette	0-0	1-1	85.3	89.4	85.7	86.8
Texas St.	0-0	1-1	84.2	88.9	84.3	85.8
UL-Monroe	0-0	1-1	81.7	78.3	81.0	80.3
South Alabama	0-0	1-1	75.4	83.2	76.9	78.5
Idaho	0-0	0-2	70.6	79.1	72.1	73.9
Georgia St.	1-0	1-1	74.2	73.2	73.6	73.7
New Mexico St.	0-1	0-2	73.3	74.2	73.0	73.5
Troy	0-0	1-1	72.6	72.1	73.3	72.7
Sun Belt Averages			81.1	83.5	81.7	82.1

PiRate Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	116.8	112.6	116.1	115.1
2	Pac-12	112.9	108.0	112.2	111.0
3	Big 12	110.2	104.3	109.8	108.1
4	ACC	107.8	108.4	107.5	107.9
5	Big Ten	108.4	106.6	108.1	107.7
6	Independents	102.3	104.0	103.3	103.2
7	AAC	93.8	98.0	94.4	95.4
8	MWC	91.8	94.0	91.4	92.4
9	MAC	86.3	90.7	87.4	88.1
10	CUSA	87.1	89.4	87.5	88.0
11	Sun Belt	81.1	83.5	81.7	82.1

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
10	Wake Forest	96.3	100.9	95.4	97.5
9	Rutgers	98.9	95.7	97.1	97.2
8	Syracuse	95.6	99.8	95.0	96.8
7	Washington St.	99.0	93.1	97.4	96.5
6	Vanderbilt	98.2	92.2	97.1	95.8
5	Indiana	94.8	96.2	94.7	95.2
4	Iowa St.	95.4	91.9	93.9	93.7
3	Maryland	94.8	91.6	93.1	93.2
2	Oregon St.	92.1	89.5	90.8	90.8
1	Kansas	78.9	72.6	76.6	76.0

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Boise St.	112.0	106.5	111.3	109.9
2	Temple	108.3	110.5	109.8	109.5
3	BYU	107.4	105.6	108.8	107.3
4	Memphis	105.4	105.0	106.9	105.8
5	Cincinnati	103.5	104.4	104.8	104.2
6	Houston	97.7	105.8	100.4	101.3
7	Western Kentucky	100.9	98.7	101.9	100.5
8	Louisiana Tech	100.5	98.2	101.4	100.0
9	Toledo	100.0	98.2	101.3	99.8
10	Navy	97.6	100.4	97.6	98.5

FCS Top 10
#	Team	PiRate
1	Jacksonville St.	97.5
2	South Dakota St.	94.1
3	North Dakota St.	92.2
4	Illinois St.	90.7
5	Coastal Carolina	90.6
6	Northern Iowa	88.0
7	JMU	87.5
8	Cal Poly	86.7
9	Harvard	85.2
10	Samford	85.1

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Thursday, September 17
Louisville	Clemson	-4.4	-3.2	-4.1
Friday, September 18		PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boston College	Florida St.	-10.2	-5.3	-10.2
Arizona St.	New Mexico	27.7	20.6	27.0
Saturday, September 19		PiRate	Mean	Bias
Maryland	South Florida	9.2	-1.7	7.5
Michigan	UNLV	38.3	31.8	37.5
Michigan St.	Air Force	31.2	19.5	32.1
Minnesota	Kent St.	32.8	27.8	32.5
Florida Atlantic	Buffalo	2.8	0.9	2.6
Texas A&M	Nevada	33.6	27.7	33.9
North Carolina	Illinois	4.7	6.9	4.5
Missouri	Connecticut	37.7	27.1	37.0
Army	Wake Forest	-17.9	-11.7	-15.8
Oklahoma	Tulsa	34.7	24.7	34.2
Syracuse	Central Michigan	16.8	15.0	14.3
Duke	Northwestern	-0.8	-1.0	0.8
Oregon	Georgia St.	54.2	47.0	54.5
North Texas	Rice	-5.1	-2.6	-4.8
Massachusetts	Temple	-20.2	-18.8	-20.3
Eastern Michigan	Ball St.	-7.0	1.6	-7.5
Bowling Green	Memphis	-7.3	-2.1	-6.7
Kansas St.	Louisiana Tech	13.2	1.4	10.8
Wisconsin	Troy	43.8	45.3	43.1
Ohio St.	Northern Illinois	48.6	35.6	49.7
Miami (O)	Cincinnati	-26.1	-20.4	-27.6
Navy	East Carolina	9.9	7.9	9.3
Oklahoma St.	Texas-San Antonio	35.6	31.9	34.6
Purdue	Virginia Tech	-11.4	-7.6	-13.2
Notre Dame	Georgia Tech	2.5	7.1	3.2
Miami (FL)	Nebraska	1.8	6.7	2.8
LSU	Auburn	9.0	6.0	9.4
Indiana	Western Kentucky	-3.6	0.0	-4.7
Washington	Utah St.	10.4	9.7	10.1
Georgia	South Carolina	17.9	12.0	17.5
Middle Tennessee	Charlotte	26.8	24.1	26.4
Texas St.	Southern Miss.	1.1	6.2	2.6
Arkansas	Texas Tech	14.5	18.6	14.2
Old Dominion	North Carolina St.	-25.9	-20.1	-25.8
Colorado (N)	Colorado St.	10.0	8.0	11.2
Kentucky	Florida	-2.1	-1.9	-2.0
Texas	California	-8.6	-4.7	-10.0
Penn St.	Rutgers	9.2	14.6	11.1
New Mexico St.	UTEP	-6.8	-9.2	-7.1
San Diego St.	South Alabama	24.5	21.9	24.3
Iowa	Pittsburgh	0.5	1.3	-0.8
USC	Stanford	10.3	7.8	6.9
Oregon St.	San Jose St.	4.2	-2.0	3.4
TCU	SMU	46.0	29.1	47.6
Toledo	Iowa St.	7.6	9.3	10.4
Washington St.	Wyoming	24.2	15.6	24.6
Alabama	Ole Miss	-1.3	4.0	-0.1
UCLA	BYU	19.7	14.9	16.2
Fresno St.	Utah	-27.3	-12.8	-27.4

FBS vs. FCS Games–PiRate Rating Only

FBS vs. FCS	Week 3	PiRate
Boise St.	Idaho St.	39
Akron	Savannah St.	28
Ohio U	Southeast Louisiana	21
Marshall	Norfolk St.	38
Virginia	William & Mary	27
Mississippi St.	Northwestern St.	42
Vanderbilt	Austin Peay	37
Idaho	Wofford	3
Georgia Southern	Citadel	23
Central Florida	Furman	26
Florida Int’l	UNC-Central	17
Western Michigan	Murray St.	31
Arkansas St.	Missouri St.	20
Tennessee	Western Carolina	39
Tulane	Maine	14
Arizona	Northern Arizona	37
Hawaii	UC-Davis	22

 

PiRate Ratings College Football For Week 2: September 10-12, 2015

One week is all it took for the cream to rise to the top.  The Southeastern Conference, coming off a year in which its top team failed to play in the National Championship Game since Vince Young led Texas over Matt Leinert and USC in the 2006 Rose Bowl, placed 10 of its 14 teams in the nation’s top poll.  Yes, 40% of the Top 25 has an SEC flavor.  All seven SEC West teams are ranked.

Our PiRate Ratings have just nine SEC teams ranked in the top 25, but overall, we have the SEC separating itself from the number two league by almost five points per team.

Texas A&M, Auburn, and Alabama all won on neutral fields against teams from Power 5 conferences.  Additionally, the league’s top rival, the Pac-12 had a miserable weekend.  Arizona State failed to show up against Texas A&M.  Arizona just barely escaped lowly Texas-San Antonio.  Oregon State looked weak beating Weber St.  Washington State was worse than that; the Cougars lost at home to Portland State, and now Mike Leach is no longer looked upon as the genius he once was.

Colorado lost to a Hawaii team that hasn’t been decent in five years.  Even Oregon looked average in their win over Eastern Washington.

There were some bright spots.  UCLA, USC, Utah, and California all looked impressive in season-opening wins.  Washington put a scare on Boise State on the road.  Still, the league as a whole dropped well behind the SEC.

The Big 12 received a minor black eye in the opening week.  TCU looked beatable in their win at Minnesota.  Baylor did not look like a world beater against SMU.  Texas looked more like SMU of 2014 in their blowout loss to Notre Dame.  Oklahoma State had difficulties beating Central Michigan.  Texas Tech could have lost to Sam Houston.  And, Kansas lost at home to South Dakota St..

Week two brings a couple of interesting games worth watching.  Start with Oregon visiting Michigan State, where the loser is likely finished in the College Playoff race, while the winner moves up a couple places in the pecking order.  Neither team was all that impressive in week one, but both more than likely held back a lot of their repertoires on both sides of the ball.

Oklahoma visits Neyland Stadium to take on Tennessee in what looks like a tossup game.  The Vols’ offense looked unstoppable against a decent Bowling Green team, while Oklahoma looked solid but not spectacular against Akron.  This game should be exciting.

Two crucial SEC games should give the winners a leg up on bowl eligibility.  In the East, South Carolina hosts Kentucky, and the winner will be 2-0.  The Wildcats upset the Gamecocks in Lexington last year.  Mississippi State hosts an LSU team that played all of five minutes against McNeese State in week one with lightning coming out the victor.  Mississippi State needs an upset in league play to smell bowl eligibility this year.  The Bulldogs are raw on both sides of the ball.  It will be interesting to see how much LSU relies on Leonard Fornette and whether State can shut down the Tiger running game and force the Bayou Bengals to throw the ball.

In the AAC, Temple visits Cincinnati, and the winner of this game becomes a top contender for the automatic New Year’s Six Bowl game allocated to the top team from the Group of 5 conferences (AAC, MWC, Sun Belt, CUSA, and MAC plus BYU and Army among the Independents).

There are a couple of in-state rivalry games this week.  The Friday game, Utah State at Utah, may not be that close, but the Saturday game, Iowa at Iowa State, should be one of the most entertaining games of the week,

Then, there are a couple of under the radar games that we find interesting.  Wake Forest visits Syracuse, and the winner will improve to 2-0 with a chance to sneak into the bowl conversation in October.  Kansas State visits UT-San Antonio a week after UTSA put a scare on Arizona in Tucson.  Many times, when a team plays an incredible road game and loses in a close game that should have been a blowout loss, they return home the following week and have enough confidence to complete the surprise.  It would be quite a surprise if UTSA upset the Wildcats.

Missouri travels to Jonesboro, Arkansas, to take on Arkansas State, and this is a huge trap game for the Tigers.  Missouri has been a slow-starter in recent years, and ASU has enough talent to keep this game close and pull out a sneaky upset at the end.

And finally, there are three games where another poor performance following an opening week bomb could get the Bunsen Burners started warming up some seats.  Texas better look 100% better at home against Rice, or Charlie Strong might start facing a little heat.  Penn State needs to rebound against Buffalo and move the football for 400 yards and 35 points, or else James Franklin could feel a little heat in Happy Valley.  By far the coach with the most to lose this week is the coach with little chance of seeing his team compete.  Mike London and his Virginia Cavaliers take on Notre Dame, a week after facing UCLA at the Rose Bowl.  With Boise State scheduled to come to Charlottesville in week four, the Cavs better show up and give a good effort against the Irish and then demolish William and Mary next week, or London could be the first coach to get a pink slip during the season, when UVa is off in week five (Tim Beckman was fired at Illinois prior to the beginning of the season).

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	137.7	127.0	138.9	134.5
2	TCU	129.6	118.0	131.0	126.2
3	Ole Miss	129.0	121.4	127.3	125.9
4	Alabama	125.1	123.7	124.8	124.5
5	Baylor	125.0	121.1	125.5	123.9
6	LSU	125.2	120.9	125.1	123.7
7	Notre Dame	123.7	120.1	124.4	122.7
8	UCLA	125.2	118.0	123.4	122.2
9	Oregon	124.7	116.3	124.5	121.8
10	USC	123.3	118.6	123.2	121.7
11	Arkansas	123.8	117.8	123.4	121.7
12	Auburn	121.3	119.8	120.5	120.5
13	Oklahoma	121.4	118.3	121.8	120.5
14	Georgia	123.6	115.2	122.7	120.5
15	Michigan St.	121.6	115.6	121.8	119.7
16	Tennessee	121.1	116.6	121.1	119.6
17	Texas A&M	119.7	117.5	118.6	118.6
18	Georgia Tech	120.8	112.0	120.2	117.7
19	Utah	119.4	112.3	118.8	116.8
20	California	118.2	112.0	118.5	116.2
21	Stanford	116.5	113.3	117.1	115.6
22	Clemson	114.6	115.7	114.5	114.9
23	Florida St.	115.2	115.2	113.9	114.8
24	West Virginia	116.2	110.8	115.6	114.2
25	Missouri	115.6	111.6	115.1	114.1
26	Arizona St.	116.2	110.4	114.8	113.8
27	Virginia Tech	114.3	110.3	114.4	113.0
28	Wisconsin	112.7	113.0	112.4	112.7
29	Oklahoma St.	112.1	112.3	112.5	112.3
30	Boise St.	114.3	108.5	113.6	112.1
31	Florida	113.5	108.9	113.0	111.8
32	Michigan	112.9	108.7	112.2	111.3
33	Louisville	110.3	112.5	110.6	111.1
34	Minnesota	111.6	109.7	112.0	111.1
35	North Carolina	111.1	111.0	110.3	110.8
36	Mississippi St.	112.4	107.7	112.1	110.7
37	Arizona	113.6	105.6	111.5	110.2
38	Miami	109.1	110.0	109.6	109.6
39	North Carolina St.	109.2	111.0	108.2	109.5
40	South Carolina	109.9	107.2	109.1	108.7
41	Nebraska	110.1	106.4	109.3	108.6
42	Penn St.	107.8	109.8	108.1	108.6
43	Temple	107.1	109.8	108.4	108.4
44	Texas	108.0	106.6	107.6	107.4
45	Illinois	107.6	105.3	107.0	106.6
46	Northwestern	106.2	107.1	105.7	106.3
47	Cincinnati	104.7	105.1	106.2	105.3
48	Pittsburgh	104.0	105.8	105.5	105.1
49	Kansas St.	111.0	94.6	109.3	105.0
50	Memphis	104.4	104.7	105.7	104.9
51	BYU	104.8	103.3	106.2	104.8
52	Colorado	105.5	101.1	104.6	103.7
53	Kentucky	105.2	101.7	104.3	103.7
54	Duke	102.0	102.7	103.1	102.6
55	Texas Tech	106.1	95.5	105.3	102.3
56	Iowa	100.9	104.1	101.0	102.0
57	Washington	102.5	100.5	102.6	101.9
58	Virginia	103.0	100.0	102.2	101.7
59	Boston College	99.9	105.0	98.4	101.1
60	Western Kentucky	101.0	98.8	102.1	100.6
61	Louisiana Tech	100.4	98.1	101.2	99.9
62	Purdue	99.6	99.4	97.9	99.0
63	Wake Forest	97.4	102.2	97.0	98.9
64	San Diego St.	96.1	102.4	97.8	98.8
65	Western Michigan	97.9	98.7	99.5	98.7
66	Navy	97.6	100.4	97.6	98.5
67	Houston	94.6	103.0	97.2	98.3
68	Rutgers	99.4	96.8	97.8	98.0
69	Marshall	97.5	97.2	98.3	97.7
70	Maryland	98.4	94.3	97.0	96.6
71	Toledo	96.0	94.4	96.9	95.8
72	Indiana	95.3	96.7	95.2	95.7
73	Washington St.	98.5	92.0	96.7	95.7
74	Middle Tennessee	95.9	95.4	95.3	95.5
75	Vanderbilt	97.7	91.7	96.4	95.3
76	Syracuse	94.2	98.2	93.1	95.2
77	Utah St.	95.1	94.3	95.4	94.9
78	Bowling Green	91.8	97.5	93.6	94.3
79	Iowa St.	96.0	92.2	94.7	94.3
80	Appalachian St.	92.5	95.7	94.6	94.3
81	Colorado St.	95.6	93.1	93.6	94.1
82	Central Florida	92.0	96.2	93.3	93.8
83	Air Force	92.3	97.8	91.3	93.8
84	New Mexico	93.5	94.6	93.0	93.7
85	San Jose St.	92.3	95.9	92.2	93.5
86	Nevada	90.9	95.8	90.2	92.3
87	Northern Illinois	91.2	94.3	91.3	92.3
88	Ohio	90.1	95.1	91.6	92.3
89	Hawaii	90.5	93.5	91.1	91.7
90	Oregon St.	92.6	90.2	91.6	91.5
91	Georgia Southern	90.9	92.7	90.7	91.4
92	Fresno St.	88.3	97.1	87.7	91.0
93	East Carolina	88.8	94.7	89.2	90.9
94	South Florida	88.3	96.2	88.1	90.9
95	Florida International	88.6	91.4	90.5	90.2
96	Tulane	89.6	92.5	88.0	90.0
97	Tulsa	86.5	93.3	87.4	89.1
98	Massachusetts	86.8	90.4	88.6	88.6
99	Rice	86.7	91.3	86.9	88.3
100	Arkansas St.	87.9	88.0	88.7	88.2
101	Ball St.	86.2	88.6	87.4	87.4
102	UTEP	85.1	89.1	85.4	86.5
103	UL-Lafayette	85.0	89.1	85.4	86.5
104	Akron	82.7	89.5	84.2	85.5
105	Texas St.	83.8	88.5	83.9	85.4
106	Florida Atlantic	83.4	88.0	84.4	85.3
107	SMU	83.8	88.8	83.1	85.2
108	Southern Mississippi	85.6	85.2	84.2	85.0
109	Central Michigan	82.0	88.0	83.9	84.6
110	North Texas	81.7	88.9	83.0	84.5
111	Old Dominion	81.1	88.7	80.2	83.3
112	Buffalo	80.1	87.6	82.1	83.3
113	Kent St.	80.9	83.9	81.3	82.0
114	Connecticut	79.5	86.1	79.3	81.6
115	Wyoming	81.4	83.7	79.6	81.6
116	UT-San Antonio	78.3	84.5	79.9	80.9
117	Army	76.4	87.5	77.8	80.6
118	UL-Monroe	81.4	78.0	80.7	80.0
119	South Alabama	76.0	84.7	77.8	79.5
120	Miami (O)	76.1	83.4	76.2	78.6
121	UNLV	77.5	80.6	77.6	78.6
122	Kansas	79.9	72.9	77.8	76.9
123	Eastern Michigan	72.1	83.2	72.1	75.8
124	New Mexico St.	74.4	75.5	74.5	74.8
125	Idaho	70.9	80.6	72.6	74.7
126	Georgia St.	73.4	72.2	72.4	72.7
127	Troy	72.1	71.6	72.8	72.2
128	Charlotte	70.8	73.0	70.6	71.5

Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Temple	0-0	1-0	107.1	109.8	108.4	108.4
Cincinnati	0-0	1-0	104.7	105.1	106.2	105.3
Central Florida	0-0	0-1	92.0	96.2	93.3	93.8
East Carolina	0-0	1-0	88.8	94.7	89.2	90.9
South Florida	0-0	1-0	88.3	96.2	88.1	90.9
Connecticut	0-0	1-0	79.5	86.1	79.3	81.6
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	0-0	1-0	104.4	104.7	105.7	104.9
Houston	0-0	1-0	94.6	103.0	97.2	98.3
Navy	0-0	1-0	97.6	100.4	97.6	98.5
Tulane	0-0	0-1	89.6	92.5	88.0	90.0
Tulsa	0-0	1-0	86.5	93.3	87.4	89.1
SMU	0-0	0-1	83.8	88.8	83.1	85.2
AAC Averages			93.1	97.6	93.6	94.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	0-0	1-0	114.6	115.7	114.5	114.9
Florida St.	0-0	1-0	115.2	115.2	113.9	114.8
Louisville	0-0	0-1	110.3	112.5	110.6	111.1
North Carolina St.	0-0	1-0	109.2	111.0	108.2	109.5
Boston College	0-0	1-0	99.9	105.0	98.4	101.1
Wake Forest	0-0	1-0	97.4	102.2	97.0	98.9
Syracuse	0-0	1-0	94.2	98.2	93.1	95.2
Coastal Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia Tech	0-0	1-0	120.8	112.0	120.2	117.7
Virginia Tech	0-0	0-1	114.3	110.3	114.4	113.0
North Carolina	0-0	0-1	111.1	111.0	110.3	110.8
Miami	0-0	1-0	109.1	110.0	109.6	109.6
Pittsburgh	0-0	1-0	104.0	105.8	105.5	105.1
Duke	0-0	1-0	102.0	102.7	103.1	102.6
Virginia	0-0	0-1	103.0	100.0	102.2	101.7
ACC Averages			107.5	108.0	107.2	107.6
Big 12 Conference
	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
TCU	0-0	1-0	129.6	118.0	131.0	126.2
Baylor	0-0	1-0	125.0	121.1	125.5	123.9
Oklahoma	0-0	1-0	121.4	118.3	121.8	120.5
West Virginia	0-0	1-0	116.2	110.8	115.6	114.2
Oklahoma St.	0-0	1-0	112.1	112.3	112.5	112.3
Texas	0-0	0-1	108.0	106.6	107.6	107.4
Kansas St.	0-0	1-0	111.0	94.6	109.3	105.0
Texas Tech	0-0	1-0	106.1	95.5	105.3	102.3
Iowa St.	0-0	1-0	96.0	92.2	94.7	94.3
Kansas	0-0	0-1	79.9	72.9	77.8	76.9
Big 12 Averages			110.5	104.2	110.1	108.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	0-0	1-0	137.7	127.0	138.9	134.5
Michigan St.	0-0	1-0	121.6	115.6	121.8	119.7
Michigan	0-0	0-1	112.9	108.7	112.2	111.3
Penn St.	0-0	0-1	107.8	109.8	108.1	108.6
Rutgers	0-0	1-0	99.4	96.8	97.8	98.0
Maryland	0-0	1-0	98.4	94.3	97.0	96.6
Indiana	0-0	1-0	95.3	96.7	95.2	95.7
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	0-0	0-1	112.7	113.0	112.4	112.7
Minnesota	0-0	0-1	111.6	109.7	112.0	111.1
Nebraska	0-0	0-1	110.1	106.4	109.3	108.6
Illinois	0-0	1-0	107.6	105.3	107.0	106.6
Northwestern	0-0	1-0	106.2	107.1	105.7	106.3
Iowa	0-0	1-0	100.9	104.1	101.0	102.0
Purdue	0-0	0-1	99.6	99.4	97.9	99.0
Big Ten Averages			108.7	106.7	108.3	107.9
Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	0-0	1-0	101.0	98.8	102.1	100.6
Marshall	0-0	1-0	97.5	97.2	98.3	97.7
Middle Tennessee	0-0	1-0	95.9	95.4	95.3	95.5
Florida International	0-0	1-0	88.6	91.4	90.5	90.2
Florida Atlantic	0-0	0-1	83.4	88.0	84.4	85.3
Old Dominion	0-0	1-0	81.1	88.7	80.2	83.3
Charlotte	0-0	1-0	70.8	73.0	70.6	71.5
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	0-0	1-0	100.4	98.1	101.2	99.9
Rice	0-0	1-0	86.7	91.3	86.9	88.3
UTEP	0-0	0-1	85.1	89.1	85.4	86.5
Southern Mississippi	0-0	0-1	85.6	85.2	84.2	85.0
North Texas	0-0	0-0	81.7	88.9	83.0	84.5
UT-San Antonio	0-0	2-1	78.3	84.5	79.9	80.9
CUSA Averages			87.4	90.0	87.8	88.4
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		1-0	123.7	120.1	124.4	122.7
BYU		1-0	104.8	103.3	106.2	104.8
Army		0-1	76.4	87.5	77.8	80.6
Independents Averages			101.6	103.6	102.8	102.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Bowling Green	0-0	0-1	91.8	97.5	93.6	94.3
Ohio	0-0	1-0	90.1	95.1	91.6	92.3
Massachusetts	0-0	0-0	86.8	90.4	88.6	88.6
Akron	0-0	0-1	82.7	89.5	84.2	85.5
Buffalo	0-0	1-0	80.1	87.6	82.1	83.3
Kent St.	0-0	0-1	80.9	83.9	81.3	82.0
Miami (O)	0-0	1-0	76.1	83.4	76.2	78.6
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	0-0	0-1	97.9	98.7	99.5	98.7
Toledo	0-0	0-0	96.0	94.4	96.9	95.8
Northern Illinois	0-0	1-0	91.2	94.3	91.3	92.3
Ball St.	0-0	1-0	86.2	88.6	87.4	87.4
Central Michigan	0-0	0-1	82.0	88.0	83.9	84.6
Eastern Michigan	0-0	0-1	72.1	83.2	72.1	75.8
MAC Averages			85.7	90.4	86.8	87.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	0-0	1-0	114.3	108.5	113.6	112.1
Utah St.	0-0	1-0	95.1	94.3	95.4	94.9
Colorado St.	0-0	1-0	95.6	93.1	93.6	94.1
Air Force	0-0	1-0	92.3	97.8	91.3	93.8
New Mexico	0-0	1-0	93.5	94.6	93.0	93.7
Wyoming	0-0	0-1	81.4	83.7	79.6	81.6
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	0-0	1-0	96.1	102.4	97.8	98.8
Nevada	0-0	1-0	90.9	95.8	90.2	92.3
San Jose St.	0-0	1-0	92.3	95.9	92.2	93.5
Hawaii	0-0	1-0	90.5	93.5	91.1	91.7
Fresno St.	0-0	1-0	88.3	97.1	87.7	91.0
UNLV	0-0	0-1	77.5	80.6	77.6	78.6
MWC Averages			92.3	94.8	91.9	93.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	0-0	1-0	124.7	116.3	124.5	121.8
California	0-0	1-0	118.2	112.0	118.5	116.2
Stanford	0-0	0-1	116.5	113.3	117.1	115.6
Washington	0-0	0-1	102.5	100.5	102.6	101.9
Washington St.	0-0	0-1	98.5	92.0	96.7	95.7
Oregon St.	0-0	1-0	92.6	90.2	91.6	91.5
South Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
UCLA	0-0	1-0	125.2	118.0	123.4	122.2
USC	0-0	1-0	123.3	118.6	123.2	121.7
Utah	0-0	1-0	119.4	112.3	118.8	116.8
Arizona St.	0-0	0-1	116.2	110.4	114.8	113.8
Arizona	0-0	1-0	113.6	105.6	111.5	110.2
Colorado	0-0	0-1	105.5	101.1	104.6	103.7
Pac-12 Averages			113.0	107.5	112.3	110.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	0-0	1-0	123.6	115.2	122.7	120.5
Tennessee	0-0	1-0	121.1	116.6	121.1	119.6
Missouri	0-0	1-0	115.6	111.6	115.1	114.1
Florida	0-0	1-0	113.5	108.9	113.0	111.8
South Carolina	0-0	1-0	109.9	107.2	109.1	108.7
Kentucky	0-0	1-0	105.2	101.7	104.3	103.7
Vanderbilt	0-0	0-1	97.7	91.7	96.4	95.3
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ole Miss	0-0	1-0	129.0	121.4	127.3	125.9
Alabama	0-0	1-0	125.1	123.7	124.8	124.5
LSU	0-0	0-0	125.2	120.9	125.1	123.7
Arkansas	0-0	1-0	123.8	117.8	123.4	121.7
Auburn	0-0	1-0	121.3	119.8	120.5	120.5
Texas A&M	0-0	1-0	119.7	117.5	118.6	118.6
Mississippi St.	0-0	1-0	112.4	107.7	112.1	110.7
SEC Averages			117.4	113.0	116.7	115.7
Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	0-0	1-0	92.5	95.7	94.6	94.3
Georgia Southern	0-0	0-1	90.9	92.7	90.7	91.4
Arkansas St.	0-0	0-1	87.9	88.0	88.7	88.2
UL-Lafayette	0-0	0-1	85.0	89.1	85.4	86.5
Texas St.	0-0	0-1	83.8	88.5	83.9	85.4
UL-Monroe	0-0	0-1	81.4	78.0	80.7	80.0
South Alabama	0-0	1-0	76.0	84.7	77.8	79.5
New Mexico St.	0-0	0-1	74.4	75.5	74.5	74.8
Idaho	0-0	0-1	70.9	80.6	72.6	74.7
Georgia St.	0-0	0-1	73.4	72.2	72.4	72.7
Troy	0-0	0-1	72.1	71.6	72.8	72.2
Sun Belt Averages			80.8	83.3	81.3	81.8

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	117.4	113.0	116.7	115.7
2	Pac-12	113.0	107.5	112.3	110.9
3	Big 12	110.5	104.2	110.1	108.3
4	Big Ten	108.7	106.7	108.3	107.9
5	ACC	107.5	108.0	107.2	107.6
6	Independents	101.6	103.6	102.8	102.7
7	AAC	93.1	97.6	93.6	94.8
8	MWC	92.3	94.8	91.9	93.0
9	CUSA	87.4	90.0	87.8	88.4
10	MAC	85.7	90.4	86.8	87.6
11	Sun Belt	80.8	83.3	81.3	81.8

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Kansas	79.9	72.9	77.8	76.9
2	Oregon St.	92.6	90.2	91.6	91.5
3	Iowa St.	96.0	92.2	94.7	94.3
4	Syracuse	94.2	98.2	93.1	95.2
5	Vanderbilt	97.7	91.7	96.4	95.3
6	Indiana	95.3	96.7	95.2	95.7
7	Washington St.	98.5	92.0	96.7	95.7
8	Maryland	98.4	94.3	97.0	96.6
9	Rutgers	99.4	96.8	97.8	98.0
10	Virginia	103.0	100.0	102.2	101.7

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Boise St.	114.3	108.5	113.6	112.1
2	Temple	107.1	109.8	108.4	108.4
3	Cincinnati	104.7	105.1	106.2	105.3
4	Memphis	104.4	104.7	105.7	104.9
5	BYU	104.8	103.3	106.2	104.8
6	Western Kentucky	101.0	98.8	102.1	100.6
7	Louisiana Tech	100.4	98.1	101.2	99.9
8	San Diego St.	96.1	102.4	97.8	98.8
9	Western Michigan	97.9	98.7	99.5	98.7
10	Navy	97.6	100.4	97.6	98.5

FCS Top 10
#	Team	PiRate
1	Jacksonville St.	93.7
2	South Dakota St.	93.4
3	North Dakota St.	91.8
4	Coastal Carolina	90.6
5	Illinois St.	88.4
6	Eastern Washington	88.0
7	SE Louisiana	86.7
8	Cal Poly	86.6
9	Northern Iowa	86.1
10	Harvard	85.2

This Week’s Games
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Thursday, September 10
Western Kentucky	Louisiana Tech	3.1	3.2	3.4
Friday, September 11
Florida Atlantic	Miami (FL)	-24.0	-20.3	-23.5
Utah	Utah St.	26.3	20.0	25.4
Saturday, September 12
Florida St.	South Florida	28.4	20.2	27.1
Michigan	Oregon St.	23.1	21.6	23.2
Connecticut	Army	5.1	0.6	3.5
UT-San Antonio	Kansas St.	-30.2	-7.6	-26.9
Maryland	Bowling Green	9.4	-0.4	6.2
Louisville	Houston	18.3	12.4	16.1
Penn St.	Buffalo	34.2	28.3	32.8
Wisconsin	Miami (O)	40.1	33.4	40.0
Syracuse	Wake Forest	-0.4	-1.2	-1.1
Clemson	Appalachian St.	24.5	22.4	22.3
Colorado	Massachusetts	22.2	24.2	19.5
Texas Tech	UTEP	23.5	8.9	22.4
Ohio St.	Hawaii	51.2	37.5	47.4
Colorado St.	Minnesota	-11.9	-13.7	-14.0
Rutgers	Washington St.	4.2	8.1	4.4
Georgia Tech	Tulane	32.8	21.1	33.8
Virginia	Notre Dame	-18.2	-17.3	-19.8
Vanderbilt	Georgia	-23.9	-21.5	-24.3
Ole Miss	Fresno St.	44.2	27.8	43.1
Alabama	Middle Tennessee	32.2	31.3	32.5
Arkansas	Toledo	30.8	26.4	29.5
Wyoming	Eastern Michigan	12.3	3.5	10.5
Iowa St.	Iowa	-3.7	-10.7	-5.1
California	San Diego St.	24.6	12.1	23.2
Tennessee	Oklahoma	2.7	1.3	2.3
Akron	Pittsburgh	-19.8	-14.8	-19.8
Georgia Southern	Western Michigan	-4.0	-3.0	-5.8
Ohio	Marshall	-4.9	0.4	-4.2
SMU	North Texas	4.1	1.9	2.1
Nevada	Arizona	-19.7	-6.8	-18.3
Texas A&M	Ball St.	36.5	31.9	34.2
Arkansas St.	Missouri	-25.2	-21.1	-23.9
Florida	East Carolina	27.7	17.2	26.8
Kansas	Memphis	-22.0	-29.3	-25.4
South Carolina	Kentucky	7.7	8.5	7.8
USC	Idaho	55.4	41.0	53.6
Michigan St.	Oregon	0.8	2.6	1.6
Nebraska	South Alabama	38.2	25.7	35.7
Texas	Rice	23.8	17.8	23.2
Indiana	Florida Int’l	12.0	10.6	10.0
New Mexico St.	Georgia St.	3.5	5.8	4.6
Cincinnati	Temple	0.6	-1.7	0.8
New Mexico	Tulsa	10.0	4.3	8.6
Mississippi St.	LSU	-9.8	-10.2	-10.0
Air Force	San Jose St.	3.0	4.9	2.1
BYU	Boise St.	-6.5	-2.2	-4.4
UNLV	UCLA	-45.2	-34.9	-43.3
Stanford	Central Florida	27.5	20.1	26.8
FBS vs. FCS	Week 2	PiRate
Auburn	Jacksonville St.	35
Illinois	Western Illinois	23
Purdue	Indiana St.	19
Charlotte	Presbyterian	11
Boston College	Howard	42
Washington	Sacramento St.	36
West Virginia	Liberty	42
Central Michigan	Monmouth	30
Northern Illinois	Murray St.	37
Southern Miss.	Austin Peay	34
TCU	Stephen F. Austin	53
Virginia Tech	Furman	40
Northwestern	Eastern Illinois	34
Duke	UNC-Central	37
North Carolina	North Carolina A&T	32
N.C. St.	Eastern Kentucky	34
Kent St.	Delaware St.	29
UL-Lafayette	Northwestern St.	21
UL-Monroe	Nicholls St.	36
Texas St.	Prairie View	26
Troy	Charleston Southern	6
Old Dominion	Norfolk St.	26
Oklahoma St.	Central Arkansas	36
Baylor	Lamar	50
Arizona St.	Cal Poly	34

Bracketology Update for Sunday Morning, March 15, 2015

Sunday, March 15, 2015.  Note to Ole Miss, Indiana, Boise St., Temple, UCLA, Miami, and even Murray St.: BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH!

The 21st Century Roman-like Senate meets today to decide your fate, and it looks like most if not all of you will be judged by a modern day conspiratorial conclave led by today’s Brutus and Cassius.  Your fate will be a stabbing in the back, and this day will launch the great Civil War known as the NCAA Tournament, where the next Augustus could be sitting in a chair in the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville this afternoon, wearing Royal Blue with the letter “K” emblazoned upon it.

We are down to just five games before the Selection Committee reveals the official brackets at 6PM EDT today.  The Sun Belt Conference Championship Game features top seed Georgia State and top challenger Georgia Southern.  If State wins, their seed could be as high as 13, while Southern would receive a 14 or 15 seed if they pull off the upset.

The Atlantic 10 Championship Game could be the most exciting of the quintet today, with Virginia Commonwealth and Dayton facing off in Brooklyn.  When these two played a couple weeks back, a missed VCU crip shot off an offensive rebound was all that separated the combatants from going to overtime.

Kentucky and Arkansas face off in the SEC Championship Game.  A Wildcat win leaves everything the same as it is now, while an Arkansas upset would only life the Razorbacks up one seeding slot if anything.

Wisconsin looks to wrap up a number one seed, as the Badgers face Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game.  The Spartans are starting to look like some of Coach Tom Izzo’s better teams that played volleyball on the backboards until the ball went in the hoop.  Wisconsin has a habit of playing 10 minutes where they could outscore not even Kentucky, but also the Atlanta Hawks, but then they have a five-minute stretch where they would be outscored by not only Maine but by La Follette High in Madison.

The fifth game is the key game for the Selection Committee, because two teams stand to be affected by the outcome.  Connecticut faces SMU in the American Athletic Conference Championship in Hartford, and the Huskies are tough to beat at home and in March.  Should U Conn come through and win another tournament title when they were a middle of the pack team, then one team currently penciled into the dance will see the eraser remove their name and send it over to the NIT Selection Committee.

It is still early on Sunday morning, so I apologize that I have not heard from all my bracketologist friends that send me their data.  They are entitled to a late Saturday night, and if they were like most of us, they were up late watching the Pac-12, Big West, and WAC Championship Games.

Before we show you our current Bracketology, here are the PiRate Ratings for today’s five games.

Team               Team                         Red    White    Blue
Kentucky         Arkansas                     14        11        15
Wisconsin       Michigan St.                  7          6          4
Connecticut     SMU                            -4        -1          1
Georgia St.     Georgia Southern        10         5          8

VCU                Dayton                           1         1         -1

The Bubble

We do not have all our bracketologists reporting this morning, but from what we do have, it all boils down to four teams.  Connecticut is the key here.  If the Huskies win today, then two of the other three in this list see their bubble burst.  If SMU defeats U Conn, then only one bubble bursts, thanks to Wyoming winning the MWC title last night.

We will offer our opinion of what information we have from the 11 geniuses that have sent in their data.

The teams in trouble are Indiana, Ole Miss, BYU, and Temple in that order.  The consensus among the group of 11 is that Indiana was ousted by Wyoming’s win last night and Ole Miss stands to go bust should Connecticut win today.  One caveat: the three most accurate of our 26 experts have yet to send in their information today.

Here are the consensus seeds according to the 11 Bracketologists we do have this morning.

1 Kentucky
1 Villanova
1 Wisconsin
1 Duke
2 Virginia
2 Arizona
2 Gonzaga
2 Kansas
3 Iowa St.
3 Maryland
3 Notre Dame
3 Baylor
4 Oklahoma
4 North Carolina
4 Northern Iowa
4 Louisville
5 Arkansas
5 West Virginia
5 Wichita St.
5 SMU
6 Utah
6 Providence
6 Georgetown
6 Butler
7 Michigan St.
7 VCU
7 San Diego St.
7 Oregon
8 Xavier
8 Iowa
8 St. John’s
8 Ohio St.
9 Cincinnati
9 N. C. St.
9 Dayton
9 Oklahoma St.
10 Davidson
10 Georgia
10 Texas
10 Colorado St.
11 LSU
11 Purdue
11 Wyoming
11 Boise St.
11 BYU
12 Temple
12 Ole Miss
12 Buffalo
12 S. F. Austin
12 Wofford
13 Valparaiso
13 Harvard
13 Georgia St.
13 UC Irvine
14 Northeastern
14 Albany
14 New Mexico St.
14 E. Washington
15 N. Dakota St.
15 Belmont
15 UAB
15 Coastal Carolina
16 Texas Southern
16 Lafayette
16 North Florida
16 Manhattan
16 Robert Morris
16 Hampton

First 4 Out
Indiana
UCLA
Miami
Murray St.

2014-15 Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs—Final Four

The semifinal round of the 2014-15 College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs has been run through the simulation program, and we now know who will play for the Simper Bowl title. If you have not read our entry from December 8 explaining how and why we perform this computer simulation, read here:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2014/12/08/2014-15-computer-simulated-playoffs/

In the first round, seeds 5-12 faced off on the higher seeds’ home fields, while seeds 1-4 received byes. In that opening round, #5 Baylor defeated #12 Kansas State 38-24; #6 Florida St. edged #11 Auburn 30-28; #7 Ole Miss beat #10 Georgia 31-28 in 2 ot; and #8 Mississippi St. trounced #9 Michigan St. 45-17.

In the quarterfinal round, #1 Alabama knocked off #8 Mississippi St. 30-17; #7 Ole Miss upset #2 Oregon 24-22; #3 TCU dismissed #6 Florida St. 42-24; and #5 Baylor won at #4 Ohio St. 40-38/
The format for the Final Four is identical to the actual FBS Playoffs. In today’s simulation, we have #7 Ole Miss facing #3 TCU in the Rose Bowl, followed by #1 Alabama and #5 Baylor facing off in the Sugar Bowl.

Without further adieu, here are the results of those games.
Rose Bowl
#3 TCU 27 #7 Ole Miss 10

Stats
First Downs: TC 19 OM 13
Rushing: TC 37-149 OM 32-89
Passing: TC 197 OM 239
Passes: TC 19-33-0 OM 21-39-4
Play-Yds: TC 70-346 OM 71-328
After 1st Qtr: TC 0 OM 0
Half: TC 7 OM 7
After 3rd Qtr: TC 20 OM 7

Sugar Bowl
#5 Baylor 26 #1 Alabama 24

Stats
First Downs BA 20 AL 19
Rushing: BA 26-79 AL 35-243
Passing: BA 419 AL 238
Passes: BA 35-53-1 AL 19-34-3
Play-Yds: BA 79-498 AL 69-481
After 1st Qtr: AL 10 BA 3
Half: AL 17 BA 16
After 3rd Qtr: BA 19 AL 17

And lo and behold, look who will be facing off in Simper Bowl VIII? It’s the two Big 12 teams that were not invited to the real inaugural playoffs. The simulator says that TCU and Baylor are the two best teams. As Former Texas Governor Rick Perry might say, “Oops!”

Return to this site on Tuesday, December 23 for the results of the simulation for the National Championship between Baylor and TCU.

2014-15 Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs—Elite 8 Round

The quarterfinal round of the 2014-15 College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs has been run through the simulation program, and unlike the first round, there were some surprises.

If you have not read our entry from December 8 explaining how and why we perform this computer simulation, read here:
https://piratings.wordpress.com/2014/12/08/2014-15-computer-simulated-playoffs/

In the first round, seeds 5-12 faced off on the higher seeds’ home fields, while seeds 1-4 received byes. In that opening round, #5 Baylor defeated #12 Kansas State 38-24; #6 Florida St. edged #11 Auburn 30-28; #7 Ole Miss beat #10 Georgia 31-28 in 2 ot; and #8 Mississippi St. trounced #9 Michigan St. 45-17.

Here is the schedule for today’s quarterfinal round games:
#8 Mississippi State at #1 Alabama
#7 Ole Miss at #2 Oregon
#6 Florida State at #3 T C U
#5 Baylor at #4 Ohio State

Without further adieu, here are the results of those games.

#8 Mississippi State at #1 Alabama
Final Score: Alabama 30 Mississippi St. 17

Stats
First Downs: AL 24 MS 16
Rushing: AL 41-209 MS 29-137
Passing: AL 226 MS 168
Passes: AL 20-34-1 MS 19-29-2
Play-Yds: AL 75-435 MS 58-305
After 1st Qtr: AL 6 MS 0
Half: AL 16 MS 7
After 3rd Qtr: AL 23 MS 10

 

#7 Ole Miss at #2 Oregon
Final Score: Ole Miss 24 Oregon 22

Stats
First Downs: OM 19 OR 19
Rushing: OM 28-118 OR 41-189
Passing: OM 309 OR 231
Passes: OM 28-44-1 OR 24-45-1
Play-Yds: OM 72-427 OR 86-420
After 1st Qtr: OM 7 OR 6
Half: OM 21 OR 12
After 3rd Qtr: OM 21 OR 19

 

#6 Florida St. at #3 TCU
Final Score: TCU 42 Florida St. 24

Stats
First Downs: TC 26 FS 18
Rushing: TC 34-177 FS 30-99
Passing: TC 289 FS 308
Passes: TC 25-38-0 FS 26-49-3
Play-Yds: TC 72-466 FS 79-407
After 1st Qtr: TC 14 FS 0
Half: TC 28 FS 14
After 3rd Qtr: TC 42 FS 24

 

#5 Baylor at #4 Ohio St.
Final Score: Baylor 40 Ohio St. 38

Stats
First Downs BA 30 OS 23
Rushing: BA 28-109 OS 45-313
Passing: BA 484 OS 210
Passes: BA 38-51-0 OS 18-29-1
Play-Yds: BA 79-593 OS 74-523
After 1st Qtr: OS 17 BA 10
Half: OS 31 BA 19
After 3rd Qtr: OS 38 BA 26

The Final Four Is Now Set. Moving on to Pasadena to play in the Rose Bowl, we have #3 TCU and #7 Ole Miss. Facing off in the Sugar Bowl, #5 Baylor challenges top-seeded Alabama.
Return to this site on Friday, December 19 for the results of that simulation.

PiRate Ratings College Football Playoffs and Bowls Coverage

For October 21, 2014

Note: You can find our award-winning ratings at http://www.piratings.webs.com

You can find numerous bowl projection sights on the Internet, so we see no reason to just put forth our projections like 100 others. The PiRate Ratings have always been a little different than other ratings. Our computer ratings use a system other than the actual scores of the games, using unique statistical data to come up with a truer score of every game before adjusting the ratings. Likewise, our bowl projections do not use the same criteria as other projectors.
We try to use our ratings to look forward and determine what the standings will look like on December 7. Then, we try to surmise the “political” nature of the bowls. For instance, you know that the ACC bowls would prefer to invite anybody other than Miami if they have a chance. When you cannot put 5,000 fans in your stadium for a home game against Cincinnati, another likely bowl team, it is not going to give a bowl like the Sun Bowl much faith that the Hurricanes will bring 20,000 fans to El Paso. Likewise, a 10-2 Auburn team is going to garner one of the big Bowl games not in the playoffs (Fiesta, Orange, Peach, or Cotton this year) before a 10-2 Washington team.

What we will do here is cover the bowls by conference. If you want to see the projections like 100 other sites, go to our website at the link below.
http://piratings.webs.com/bowlprojections.htm

Here is where we see the conferences and bowl possibilities for October 21, 2014.
Note: An Asterisk (*) means this is an at-large selection because the conference cannot meet its bowl tie-in obligation due to lack of bowl eligible team.

The Playoffs as we see it today

Sugar Bowl: #1 Ole Miss vs. #4 Ohio St.

Rose Bowl: #2 Florida St. vs. #3 Alabama

Group of 5 Conferences

American Athletic Conference
East Carolina controls its own destiny to become the first Group of 5 conference member to play in one of the Four New Year’s Eve/Day Big Bowls. At 11-1, the Pirates would top a 13-0 Marshall team. ECU has three potential possible upset games yet to play, but the Pirates are clearly better than anybody left on their schedule. Those three tough games to come are against Temple in Philadelphia on November 1; at Cincinnati on Thursday night, November 13; and a Thursday night regular season finale at home against Central Florida.

Central Florida should be on a roll when the Knights roll into Greenville for that big December 4 game. UCF should win nine games, and the Knights figure to be the second bowl selection out of the AAC.

Houston started the season with some trouble, but the Cougars have begun to play their best football of the season in the last few weeks. UH does not face ECU, so chances are slim that Coach Tony Levine’s team can sneak up and take the conference crown.

Cincinnati, Memphis, and Temple all should be bowl eligible, and there will be enough conference bids for all three.

1. Peach Bowl: East Carolina (vs. Notre Dame)
2. Birmingham Bowl: Memphis (vs. Kentucky)
3. St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida (vs. Miami)
4. Miami Beach Bowl: Cincinnati (vs. BYU)
5. Military Bowl: Temple (vs. Virginia)
6. Armed Forces Bowl: Houston (vs. Rutgers)

Conference USA
Marshall has a clear path to a 13-0 season, but the Thundering Herd still must get past UAB on the road and a possible tough Louisiana Tech team in the C-USA Championship Game. Marshall needs an ECU loss to occur in order to sneak into a possible Peach Bowl invitation.

Louisiana Tech appears to be the class of the West Division, but Bulldogs are no cinch with games still remaining against UAB on the road and Rice at home.

Middle Tennessee is on pace to win seven games and a mild upset over a swooning BYU Cougars team could lift that number to eight and make the Blue Raiders the third choice in the conference bowl pecking order.

The rest of the bowl invitations will go out to the three teams that can get to 6-6. As of today, we predict Rice, UAB, and Florida Atlantic will be those three teams. Failure to get three to 6-6 will help the Sunbelt or MAC.

1. Hawaii Bowl: Marshall (vs. Utah St.)
2. Bahamas Bowl: Louisiana Tech (vs. Toledo)
3. Boca Raton Bowl: Middle Tennessee (vs. Northern Illinois)
4. New Mexico Bowl: Rice (vs. Air Force)
5. Heart of Dallas Bowl: U A B (vs. Arkansas St. *)
6. Independence Bowl: Florida Atlantic * (vs. Georgia Tech)

Mid-American Conference
Toledo appears to be the top team at this point, but the Rockets are not a for-sure selection to win the MAC Championship, as there is some parity in the league this year.

Because there is not dominant team like an undefeated Northern Illinois team, there will definitely be many more bowl eligible teams than bowl spots. We foresee eight bowl eligible MAC teams with three not receiving bowl bids.

Politics and financial priorities will allow a team like Ohio to beat out Buffalo or Central Michigan if they all finish 7-5. Choosing between Ohio and Bowling Green will be tough, but we will take the Bobcats.

1. Bahamas Bowl: Toledo (vs. Louisiana Tech)
2. Boca Raton Bowl: Northern Illinois (vs. Middle Tennessee)
3. Idaho Potato Bowl: Akron (vs. Nevada)
4. Camellia Bowl: Western Michigan (vs. South Alabama)
5. Go Daddy Bowl: Ohio U (vs. Georgia Southern)

Mountain West Conference
Boise State’s upset loss to Air Force has kept the Broncos down at number three or four in the Group of 5 teams vying for the New Year’s Eve/Day bowl bid. The Broncos only other loss it to Ole Miss, which looks a lot better now than it did on August 28. BSU’s only bump in the road ahead is a home finale against Utah State on November 29.

Utah State, Colorado State, and Air Force are certainly going bowling from the Mountain Division. In the West Division, it looks like three teams could finish tied at 5-3. One of the three, Fresno State as of this week, is likely not to receive a bowl bid.

1. Las Vegas Bowl: Boise St. (vs. Stanford)
2. Poinsettia Bowl: Colorado St. (vs. Oregon St. *)
3. Hawaii Bowl: Utah St. (vs. Marshall)
4. New Mexico Bowl: Air Force (vs. Rice)
5. New Orleans Bowl: San Diego St. (vs. Louisiana-Lafayette)
6. Idaho Potato Bowl: Nevada (vs. Akron)

Sunbelt Conference
This is the only Group of Five conference with zero chance of having a team play in a New Year’s Eve/Day bowl. Georgia Southern had their chances, blowing second half leads to North Carolina State and Georgia Tech. The Eagles appear to be the class of the league this year, with Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State just behind. GSU does not play either team this year and should run the table in league play.

UL-Lafayette and Arkansas State should receive some form of bowl invitation, be it from a conference tie-in or as an at-large. (Note—this was written before these two teams faced off Tuesday night.)

South Alabama may finish a game or even two behind Louisiana-Monroe and may finished tied with Texas State, but the Jaguars figure to earn the Camellia Bowl bid just up the road in Montgomery with six or more wins.

Texas State could luck into an at-large bowl invitation, since it appears there will be some Lone Star State bowl games needing an at-large team.

1. Go Daddy Bowl: Georgia Southern (vs. Ohio U)
2. New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana-Lafayette (vs. San Diego St.)
3. Camellia Bowl: South Alabama (vs. Western Michigan)
4. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Arkansas St. * (vs. U A B)
5. Texas Bowl: Texas St. * (vs. Texas A&M)

Independents
For Notre Dame, please see the Atlantic Coast Conference

The Army artillery has come up a mile short of its target this year, so the Black Knights will once again fail to achieve bowl eligibility. The Navy’s ship is taking on water quickly and appears headed to the bottom of the ocean floor. Look for the Armed Forces and Poinsettia Bowls to look elsewhere.

BYU is sinking in quicksand since the loss of their star quarterback, but the Cougars already had enough wins in the bank to see bowl eligibility.

1. Miami Beach Bowl: B Y U (vs. Cincinnati)

Power 5 Conferences

Atlantic Coast Conference (& Notre Dame)
Florida State has two tiny hurdles left to cross before waltzing into the playoffs. The Seminoles play at Louisville a week from Thursday, and they will more than likely face Duke in the ACC Championship Game. FSU has the best chance of any FBS team of running the table this season.

Notre Dame might lose to USC, but we believe the Fighting Irish still earn a New Year’s Eve/Day bowl bid at 10-2. Clemson will not be so lucky if the Irish end up 10-2, for a 10-2 Tiger team would not get into one of the Big Six bowls.

Duke could repeat as Coastal Division champions, but the Blue Devils still appear to be a two to three touchdown underdog to FSU. Any of the six Coastal teams could finish bowl eligible, and we believe six of the seven will. The bowl representatives hope the one that doesn’t is Miami, but the Hurricanes have the look of a 6-6 team. This week, we select North Carolina to finish 5-7.

1. Rose Bowl: Florida St. (vs. Alabama)
2. Peach Bowl: Notre Dame (vs. East Carolina)
3. Russell Athletic Bowl: Duke (vs. Kansas St.)
4. Capital One Bowl ^: Clemson (vs. Mississippi St.)
5. Gator Bowl: Louisville (vs. South Carolina)
6. Belk Bowl: Virginia Tech (vs. Tennessee)
7. Sun Bowl: Pittsburgh (vs. Arizona St.)
8. Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College (vs. Penn St.)
9. Military Bowl: Virginia (vs. Temple)
10. Independence Bowl: Georgia Tech (vs. Florida Atlantic *)
11. Quick Lane Bowl: North Carolina St. (vs. Maryland)
12. St. Petersburg Bowl: Miami (vs. Central Florida

^: If a Big Ten team plays in the Orange Bowl as the SEC opponent, the Capital One Bowl can issue a bid to an ACC Team

Big Ten Conference
Michigan State and Ohio State are headed to a major clash in East Lansing on November 8, and the winner can back into a playoff spot if they win out and finish 12-1. Nebraska has a minor chance to sneak in if the Cornhuskers run the table and beat the Michigan State-Ohio State winner in the conference title game.

We have removed one team from the total here this week, as we now believe that Northwestern could lose to Purdue, and neither team will win six games. Indiana and Illinois appear to have too much left to do to get to six wins. Michigan is not even among the possibilities.

1. Sugar Bowl: Ohio St. (vs. Ole Miss)
2. Orange Bowl: Michigan St. (vs. Georgia)
3. Outback Bowl: Nebraska (vs. Auburn)
4. Holiday Bowl: Wisconsin (vs. Arizona)
5. Music City Bowl: Minnesota (vs. L S U)
6. San Francisco Bowl: Iowa (vs. U C L A)
7. Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State (vs. Boston College)
8. Quick Lane Bowl: Maryland (vs. North Carolina St.)
9. Armed Forces Bowl: Rutgers (vs. Houston)

Big 12 Conference
That hissing sound you heard the last two weeks was the sound of the Big 12 Conference balloon losing all its playoff air. TCU fell out of the picture when they blew a 21-point lead to Baylor. Then Baylor and Oklahoma fell out of the race with bad losses last week.

Kansas State could sneak into the picture if the Wildcats run the table, beating TCU and Baylor, both on the road. We don’t see that happening.

Because Texas and Texas Tech do not have favorable remaining schedules and appear to be headed to losing seasons, the Big 12 will only have six bowl eligible teams, and even though none will make the playoffs, two should earn Big Six bowl bids. That will leave two bowls Texas and Armed Forces) looking for at-large invitees.

1. Fiesta Bowl: T C U (vs. U S C)
2. Cotton Bowl: Baylor (vs. Oregon)
3. Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma (vs. Washington)
4. Russell Athletic Bowl: Kansas St. (vs. Duke)
5. Liberty Bowl: West Virginia (vs. Missouri)
6. Cactus Bowl: Oklahoma St. (vs. Utah)

Pac-12 Conference
It is going to be very tough for a Pac-12 team to make the playoffs this year. Oregon could do so by running the table, but the Ducks seem to have a defensive breakdown once a month, and we see one more loss in their future. Utah and Arizona still have just one loss, but we see multiple losses ahead for both.

USC may be the best team on the coast, but the Trojans have two losses and appear to have no chance to earn a spot in the playoffs. UCLA, Washington, Arizona State, Stanford, and Oregon State should join the others mentioned in a bowl. One will have to receive an at-large invitation, but there will be one available for sure.

1. Fiesta Bowl: U S C (vs. T C U)
2. Cotton Bowl: Oregon (vs. Baylor)
3. Alamo Bowl: Washington (vs. Oklahoma)
4. Holiday Bowl: Arizona (vs. Wisconsin)
5. San Francisco Bowl: U C L A (vs. Iowa)
6. Sun Bowl: Arizona St. (vs. Pittsburgh)
7. Las Vegas Bowl: Stanford (vs. Boise St.)
8. Cactus Bowl: Utah (vs. Oklahoma St.)
9. Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon St. * (vs. Colorado St.)

Southeastern Conference
The league everybody else likes to hate can seriously stake a claim to having the top four teams in the nation and possibly top five teams. We do not believe Florida State could finish in the top half of the West Division standings this year.

In fact, our Mean ratings this week have Ole Miss, Alabama, Auburn, and Mississippi State as the top four teams. The SEC will get no more than two teams into the playoffs, because the rest of the FBS leagues would pick up their marbles and go home if more than two make it.

Our ratings show Ole Miss to be the hands-down best team in the nation at the present time, and Alabama is right there just behind. Auburn lost at Mississippi State, and the Bulldogs are still undefeated, but our ratings believe the Maroon and White will lose to both Alabama and Ole Miss.

Georgia is the wildcard in the hunt, as the Bulldogs need only beat Auburn to avoid another loss. At 7-1/11-1, UGA is one win away from a playoff spot.

Last week, Kentucky showed signs of a possible upcoming swoon, where the Wildcats could have to claw to that sixth win. Tennessee will be looking at a November where the Vols must go 3-1, but the schedule gives the Orange and White four winnable November games.

South Carolina and Missouri have shown numerous weaknesses but both teams will become bowl eligible. LSU and Texas A&M will join this group in the lower pecking order.

Florida appears to be headed to a 5-6 season, and the cancelled game with Idaho will not be made up, so Will Muschamp will go out with consecutive losing seasons in Gainesville, and the Gators will look hard at trying to lure Art Briles away from Baylor. And, it will mean that there will be one bowl (Independence) available to another team as an at-large selection.

1. Sugar Bowl: Ole Miss (vs. Ohio St.)
2. Rose Bowl: Alabama (vs. Florida St.)
3. Orange Bowl: Georgia (vs. Michigan St.)
4. Capital One Bowl: Mississippi St. (vs. Clemson)
5. Outback Bowl: Auburn (vs. Nebraska)
6. Gator Bowl: South Carolina (vs. Louisville)
7. Music City Bowl: L S U (vs. Minnesota)
8. Liberty Bowl: Missouri (vs. West Virginia)
9. Texas Bowl: Texas A&M (vs. Texas St. *)
10. Belk Bowl: Tennessee (vs. Virginia Tech)
11. Birmingham Bowl: Kentucky (vs. Memphis)

Teams that should be bowl eligible but not invited to bowls: Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Fresno St., and Louisiana-Monroe

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 12 Update

Bucknell Joins The Dance Party

The Bucknell Bison earned the Patriot League’s automatic bid Friday with a 72-54 victory over Lafayette.  Versatile big man Mike Muscala led the Bison with 18 points while sharpshooter Bryson Johnson added 15.

 

Bucknell improved to 25-8 on the season.  They project to be a 12 or 13-seed.

 

12 More Bids To Go Out Saturday

 

This is the busiest day of the tournament schedule.  13 conferences will crown their champion, and four other conferences will conduct semifinal rounds.  All told, every single one of the 21 games scheduled will be televised nationally.  Do you have enough televisions and a good high-speed computer?

 

Here is a conference-by-conference look at all the action.

 

All Game Times EST

 

Atlantic Coast Conference—Greensboro, NC

Quarterfinal Round

#1 North Carolina  61  #9 Miami  59

#4 Clemson  70  #5 Boston College  47

#2 Duke  87  #7 Maryland  71

#6 Virginia Tech  52  #3 Florida State  51 

 

Semifinal Round

#1 North Carolina (25-6)  vs. #4 Clemson (21-10)  1:30 PM  ESPN 

#2 Duke (28-4)  vs. #6 Virginia Tech (21-11)  3:45 PM  ESPN

 

All four teams are safely in the NCAA Tournament.  The Hokies secured a spot in the Dance with the nail-biting win over the Seminoles.

 

America East Conference

Championship Round

#5 Stony Brook (15-16)  at #2 Boston U (20-13)  12 Noon  ESPN2

 

Boston U won both regular season meetings.  The Terriers won 67-62 at home and 62-49 on the road.  They win with their defense, as they only shoot 40.6% from the field.

 

Atlantic 10 Conference—Atlantic City, NJ

Quarterfinal Round

#9 Dayton  68  #1 Xavier  67

#12 St. Joseph’s  93  #4 Duquesne  90  ot

#2 Temple  96  #10 LaSalle  76

#3 Richmond  55  #6 Rhode Island 45

 

Semifinal Round

#9 Dayton (21-12)  vs. #12 St. Joseph’s (11-21)  1 PM  CBS College

#2 Temple (25-6)  vs. #3 Richmond (24-7)  3:30 PM  CBS College

 

The Bubble teams will have to sweat it out all the way until Sunday.  At least one long shot will advance to the Championship Game.  Neither St. Joe’s nor Dayton is getting an at-large bid, and one of the two will be playing for an automatic bid Sunday.  Both Temple and Richmond are in the Dance.

 

Big 12 Conference—Kansas City

Semifinal Round

#1 Kansas  90  #5 Colorado  83

#2 Texas  70  #3 Texas A&M  58

 

Championship Game

#1 Kansas (31-2)  vs. #2 Texas (27-6)  6 PM  ESPN

 

The Jayhawks are still playing for the overall number one seed, while Texas is probably locked in on a number two seed.  However, with Notre Dame losing, a Longhorn win could put them in the conversation, especially if Duke does not win the ACC Tournament.

 

Big East Conference—New York City

Semifinal Round

#9 Connecticut  76  #4 Syracuse  71  ot

#3 Louisville 83  #2 Notre Dame  77  ot 

 

Championship Game

#3 Louisville (25-8)  vs. #9 Connecticut (25-9)  9 PM  ESPN

 

Connecticut becomes the first team ever to play five games in five days in modern college basketball history.  Will they have anything left in the tank next week when it really counts?  Louisville’s win more than likely killed any chance for the Irish getting a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament.

 

Big Ten Conference—Indianapolis

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Ohio State  67  #8 Northwestern  61 ot

#4 Michigan  60  #5 Illinois  55

#7 Michigan State  74  #2 Purdue  56

#6 Penn State  36  #3 Wisconsin 33

 

Semifinal Round

#1 Ohio State (30-2)  vs. #4 Michigan (20-12)  1:40 PM  CBS

#6 Penn State (18-13)  vs. #7 Michigan State (19-13)  4 PM  CBS

 

Michigan State has now earned a spot in the NCAA Tournament.  Penn State might move from the Bubble to in the tournament with a win over the Spartans.

 

Big West Conference—Anaheim

Semifinal Round

#1 Long Beach State  74  #7 UC-Riverside  63

#5 UC-Santa Barbara 83  #3 Cal State Northridge 63

 

Championship Game

#1 Long Beach State (22-10)  vs. #5 UC-Santa Barbara (17-13)  8 PM  ESPN2

 

Long Beach State won both meetings against the Gauchos in the regular season, and neither game was close.  The 49ers are not going to become another Butler or even repeat the exploits of Northern Iowa last year, but they could scare a favored team in the first round.  If UCSB wins, then they will make a quick exit in the first round.

 

Conference USA—El Paso, TX

Semifinal Round

#4 Memphis  76  #8 East Carolina  56

#3 U T E P  66  #2 Tulsa  54

 

Championship Game

#3 UTEP (25-8)  vs. #4 Memphis (24-9)  11:30 AM  CBS

 

The host Miners blew Memphis off the floor 74-47 in their only regular season meeting.  That game took place on this court.

 

Ivy League Playoff

Harvard (23-5)  vs. Princeton (24-6)  at Yale University  4 PM  ESPN3.com 

 

If Princeton wins a close game, there is an outside chance that the Ivy League could get two bids.

 

Mid-American Conference—Cleveland

Semifinal Round

#6 Akron  79  #2 Western Michigan  68

#1 Kent State 79  #4 Ball State 68

 

Championship Game

#1 Kent State (23-10)  vs. #6 Akron (22-12)  6 PM  ESPN2

 

The winner goes dancing, while the loser can only hope for a trip to Madison Square Garden in late March.

 

M E A C—Winston-Salem, NC

Semifinal Round

#4 Morgan State  61  #1 Bethune-Cookman  48

#2 Hampton  85  #6 Norfolk State  61

 

Championship Game

#2 Hampton (23-8)  vs. #4 Morgan State (17-13)  2 PM  ESPN2

 

Morgan State goes for a four-peat.  The Bears beat Hampton in the regular season 78-72.

 

Mountain West Conference—Las Vegas

Semifinal Round

#1 B Y U  87  #5 New Mexico  76

#2 San Diego State  74  #3 UNLV 72

 

Championship Game

#1 B Y U  (30-3)  vs. #2 San Diego State (31-2)  7 PM  Versus

 

Is the third time the charm for San Diego State?  The Aztecs’ two losses were to the Cougars.  If they can hold Jimmer Fredette under 35 points, we have a feeling that SDSU will cut down the nets. 

 

Both teams are legitimate threats to make it to the Sweet 16 and possibly a round or two farther.

 

Pac-10 Conference—Los Angeles

Semifinal Round

#1 Arizona  67  #4 Southern Cal  62

#3 Washington 69  #7 Oregon 51

 

Championship Game

#1 Arizona (27-6)  vs. #3 Washington (22-10)  6 PM  CBS

 

This should be an exciting game, even though it will not greatly affect the NCAA Tournament seedings.

 

The two teams split the season series, but the Huskies came close to sweeping.  UW won by 17 at home and fell by a single point in Tucson.  We think this is a tossup game.

 

Southeastern Conference—Atlanta

Quarterfinal Round

1W  Alabama 65  4E Georgia 59  ot

2E  Kentucky  75  3W  Ole Miss 66

1E  Florida  85  5E  Tennessee  74

3E  Vanderbilt  87  2W  Mississippi State  81

 

Semifinal Round

1W  Alabama (21-10)  vs. 2E  Kentucky (23-8)  1 PM  ABC

1E  Florida (25-6)  vs.  3E  Vanderbilt (23-9)  3:30 PM  ABC

 

Alabama played themselves into position to get one of the final at-large bids.  The Crimson Tide fans need to route against a Dayton or St. Joseph’s tournament championship in the Atlantic 10, because there is still little room for error for ‘Bama.

 

Kentucky looks unstoppable at times and then looks like a team that doesn’t belong in the tournament at others.  That’s what you get with a bunch of underclassmen and with no depth.

 

We believe this game will be close for most of the day, but the Wildcats will enjoy one nice spurt in both halves to hold off the Tide by six to 12 points.

 

Florida is playing about as well as either of their two National Champion teams.  It is hard to stop a team with five guys capable of scoring 20 points.  The Gators’ have few weaknesses.

 

Vanderbilt is a lot like Florida, but not as talented.  The Commodores have excellent outside shooters, but they cannot create their own shot like Florida’s outside shooters.  They have a couple of excellent inside scorers, but they can disappear against Florida’s inside players.  We look for the Gators to dominate this one from the beginning and win by double digits.

 

Southland Conference—Katy, TX

Championship Game

#1 McNeese State (21-10)  vs. #7 UT-San Antonio (18-13)  4 PM  ESPN2

 

S W A C—Garland, TX

Semifinal Round

#4 Alabama State  73  #1 Texas Southern  66

#6 Grambling  81  #2 Jackson State  75  ot

 

Championship Game

#4 Alabama State (16-17)  vs. #6 Grambling (12-20)  8:30 PM  ESPNU

 

The winner of this game can definitely plan on heading to Dayton for a First Four game.

 

W A C—Las Vegas

Semifinal Round

#1 Utah State  58  #8 San Jose State  54

#2 Boise State 81  #3 New Mexico State  63

 

Championship Game

#1 Utah State (29-3)  vs. #2 Boise State (20-11) 10 PM  ESPN2

 

Utah State is definitely in the Dance, so if the Broncos can pull off the big upset, another bubble will burst somewhere else.

 

Note: St. Mary’s defeated Weber State Friday night 77-54 in a non-conference game that was scheduled only two months ago.  The Gaels appear to be safe as an at-large team.