The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 19-21, 2017

The Captain has been shanghaied by the lasses.  After a couple weeks of total failure, the Captain handed over the controls of the PiRate Ship to us ladies, because, as he said, “Hey, you cannot do any worse than me.”

Actually, the Captain is enjoying the fruits of his labors as a baseball analytics specialist, and the thoughts of having the first Yankees-Dodgers World Series in 36 years (and as he stated, first legit season in 39 years) has sent him ahoy to dry land for the weekend.

Every week, the Captain prefaces this edition with the warning that you should not actually wager real money, or what goes for real money, on our parlay selections.  Readers, today, this edition of picks comes 100% from five women.

What can women know about football?  As the Captain says, if playing or coaching football made the men involved total experts, they would have all retired a long time ago and made even more money draining the sports books.  It just doesn’t happen.  Actually, the top experts are usually some professor at Cal Tech or MIT with a long computer program that spits out teams that when wagered on, return profits about 5 out of 8 times.

I am here to tell you that the 5 women contributing to this submission today probably have more actual football experience than the Cal Tech and MIT professors.  It may have been from Powder Puff College Football playing with Tri-Delt or Delta Gamma, but we know the game.

That doesn’t mean we know anything about picking winners, so be forewarned.  We went on intuition and other feminine instincts, and we came up with four parlays.  The only advice we received from the Captain was that we should limit our parlays to a max of 4 games, and the parlay calculator had to return a value better than +120.  We did both.

As for last week, need you ask?  The Captain issued just two parlays, and both lost.  For the season his return is -30%.  If we win this week, we just might mutiny and take over control of our vessel.

#1 @ +142  
Must Win Must Lose
Northwestern Iowa
Minnesota Illinois
#2 @ +169  
Must Win Must Lose
Arkansas St. UL-Lafayette
Notre Dame USC
LSU Ole Miss
#3 @ +127  
Must Win Must Lose
Houston Memphis
Penn St. Michigan
#4 @ +132  
Must Win Must Lose
UAB Charlotte
Purdue Rutgers
Duke Pittsburgh

Good luck.  You’ll need it if you play our parlays.  Shame on you if you wager the paper that they say is real money on these selections.  If you want to gift away $400, you can send it to my Patreon page.

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October 17, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 7: October 18-22, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:30 pm

What Happens When Everybody Goes 8-8

Okay, that’s a little bit of an exaggeration, but when was the last time only two teams in a conference had winning records after six weeks of the season?  It has not happened in the 32-team version of the NFL—until this year.  Houston and Baltimore are the only two AFC teams with a winning record this week.  With Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and San Diego losing, almost every AFC team is still in contention for a Wildcard berth.  Even Jacksonville, Oakland, and Kansas City still have legitimate hopes.

 

The AFC East is a four-way logjam at 3-3.  3-3 is good enough to qualify for both wildcard spots at the moment.

 

The NFC is not much different.  The NFC South is the only race that appears to be in hand by one team.  Atlanta is 6-0 and has a 3 ½ -game lead over Tampa Bay.  If the playoffs started today, a 4-2 team would be left out on this side.

 

Parity is at the point where a wise player needs to strongly consider searching for value in the underdogs, especially if those teams lost the previous week.  Just when it appeared that the New York Jets were headed to misery, they pull out a performance that looked more like the 1972 and 1973 Miami Dolphins.  Just when it looked as if San Francisco was head and heels above the rest of the league, the New York Giants embarrass them at home.  One week Phillip Rivers looks like the next Tom Brady, and the next week he looks more like Marcia Brady.

 

What makes this parity more believable is that the offensive and defensive lines in the league do not seem to have enough depth to be consistent.  Just an injury or two along the front walls can make a good team bad in one week.  Numerous little injuries can be worth a couple yards per play, and that is enough to turn a winner to a loser.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 107.7 108.0 106.9 106.5 1
Philadelphia Eagles 101.5 101.0 101.6 102.0 4
Dallas Cowboys 98.6 99.3 100.0 101.0 1.5
Washington Redskins 97.8 98.6 100.0 101.5 2
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 108.8 109.1 106.3 105.5 2.5
Green Bay Packers 106.6 106.2 103.3 104.0 2.5
Detroit Lions 99.1 98.4 100.7 99.0 1.5
Minnesota Vikings 97.3 98.8 100.6 102.5 2.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 104.6 106.2 105.6 107.5 2.5
New Orleans Saints 100.1 98.8 96.2 95.0 2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 97.9 98.7 96.9 97.5 3.5
Carolina Panthers 94.0 94.8 95.5 93.0 3
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 108.3 107.5 104.5 105.5 2.5
Seattle Seahawks 102.2 102.2 103.4 104.5 3.5
Arizona Cardinals 99.2 100.1 101.6 100.0 2.5
St. Louis Rams 98.7 100.8 101.0 102.0 4.5
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 108.3 108.4 103.3 103.0 1.5
Miami Dolphins 99.9 99.6 99.8 100.0 2.5
New York Jets 99.8 99.0 100.4 102.0 3.5
Buffalo Bills 97.4 96.1 100.7 100.0 3.5
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Baltimore Ravens 104.5 105.5 105.5 106.0 3
Pittsburgh Steelers 101.3 100.2 98.4 99.5 2.5
Cincinnati Bengals 98.8 98.3 98.9 98.5 2.5
Cleveland Browns 93.9 93.9 94.5 93.5 2.5
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 107.4 108.2 106.3 105.5 2.5
Tennessee Titans 93.0 92.1 95.4 97.5 4
Indianapolis Colts 91.5 91.9 94.7 97.0 4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 90.0 89.6 90.4 91.0 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 106.4 105.6 102.0 102.0 3
San Diego Chargers 99.3 99.6 101.1 100.0 2
Oakland Raiders 94.2 93.0 94.9 96.0 3.5
Kansas City Chiefs 91.6 90.4 89.4 88.5 3

 

This Week’s Games

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
SAN FRANCISCO Seattle 8.6 7.8 3.6 3.5 7    38   
BUFFALO Tennessee 7.9 7.5 8.8 6.0 3    46 1/2
MINNESOTA Arizona 2.1 2.7 3.0 6.5 6    40   
INDIANAPOLIS Cleveland 2.1 2.5 4.7 8.0 2 1/2 45   
HOUSTON Baltimore 5.4 5.2 3.3 2.0 6 1/2 48 1/2
Green Bay ST. LOUIS 3.4 0.9 -2.2 -2.5 5 1/2 45   
Dallas CAROLINA 1.6 1.5 1.5 5.0 2    45 1/2
N. Y. GIANTS Washington 10.9 10.4 7.9 6.0 5 1/2 50   
TAMPA BAY New Orleans 1.3 3.4 4.2 6.0 -3    49 1/2
NEW ENGLAND N. Y. Jets 10.0 10.9 4.4 2.5 10 1/2 47   
OAKLAND Jacksonville 7.7 6.9 8.0 8.5 4    43 1/2
CINCINNATI Pittsburgh 0.5 1.1 3.5 2.0 -1 1/2 45 1/2
CHICAGO Detroit 12.2 13.2 8.1 9.0 6    47 1/2

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