PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 16-18, 2017

After a winning week with a modest 35% return on our investment, the PiRate Rating Money Line Parlays are just a fraction below break even for the season.  We are submitting three selections this week, with the odds being a tad lower in hopes that at least two of these three will win and put us back in the black for the season.  There are numerous trap games this week, so we chose to lay off about 35 of these games that could have been used to produce parlays in the +180 to +235 range.  The problem is that in just about every case, we were split on one of the games in the possible parlay.  For instance, the Western Kentucky-Middle Tennessee game found us divided at 3 to 3.  Either way, we could have used this parlay to produce a nice fat odds in our favor, but none of us are steadfast in our belief in the team we believe will win.  You can put a ditto on Wake Forest and North Carolina St.  We were 3-3 on that game too.

What you do receive this week are three parlays in which we were 6-0 on all but one game, and 5-1 on the other (NW-Duke).

Here are our 3 selections for the week.  REMEMBER: we issue these selections only for entertainment purposes and NEVER wager real currency on these picks.  We advise you follow our lead.  If you are a professional “player” and will play regardless, please use these selections as only one source for your investing ideas.

#1 @ +136
Must Win	Must Lose
Georgia Tech	Duke
West Virginia	Texas
********************	********************
#2 @ +165
Must Win	Must Lose
Northwestern	Minnesota
South Alabama	Georgia Southern
Missouri	Vanderbilt
********************	********************
#3 @ +122
Must Win	Must Lose
Utah St.	Hawaii
Old Dominion	Rice
Idaho	Coastal Carolina

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 11: November 15-19, 2012

The Playoff Race—Is It Already Decided?

If the playoffs ended today, the 12 teams included would be:

AFC

1. Houston

2. Baltimore

3. Denver

4. New England

5. Pittsburgh

6. Indianapolis

 

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Chicago

3. San Francisco

4. New York Giants

5. Green Bay

6. Seattle

 

According to our ratings, these 12 teams project to remain the dozen that will make the playoffs.  We have very little change in our projections.

 

In the AFC, we believe the four division winners are already locked up.  Additionally, Pittsburgh should hang onto the top wildcard spot, even with the temporary quarterback issues.

 

We project the Colts to go 3-4 the rest of the way, while Cincinnati has an easy finishing schedule.  We see the Bengals closing 5-2.  Indianapolis has a 2 1/2 –game conference lead over Cincinnati, and if the Bengals and Colts finished tied at 9-7-0, Indy would own the tiebreaker in almost every scenario.

 

In the NFC, we are high on Seattle and believe the Seahawks have the most favorable schedule in the league.  It would not surprise us at all if Coach Pete Carroll’s team wins six of its final seven games and overtakes San Francisco by a half game.  We believe the two wildcard teams will have five losses apiece, so in order for a Minnesota at 6-4-0 or Tampa Bay at 5-4-0 to make the playoffs, they would have to lose no more than one more game.

 

Here is how we project the playoffs as of November 14, 2012:

 

A F C

1. Houston 15-1-0

2. Baltimore 13-3-0

3. New England 12-4-0

4. Denver 12-4-0

5. Pittsburgh 12-4-0

6. Indianapolis 9-7-0

 

N F C

1. Atlanta 15-1-0

2. Chicago 12-4-0

3. Seattle 11-5-0

4. New York Giants 9-7-0

5. Green Bay 11-5-0

6. San Francisco 10-5-1

 

Playoff Projections

Wildcard Round

New England over Indianapolis

Denver over Pittsburgh

Seattle over San Francisco

Green Bay over New York Giants

 

Divisional Round

Denver over Houston

Baltimore over New England

Atlanta over Green Bay

Seattle over Chicago

 

Conference Championships

Baltimore over Denver

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Super Bowl

Baltimore over Atlanta

 

Current PiRate Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
New York Giants	104.8	103.7	102.9	102.1	2.5
Dallas Cowboys	100.3	99.6	99.1	98.6	2.5
Philadelphia Eagles	97.2	97.3	97.1	97.1	2.5
Washington Redskins	96.7	96.8	96.6	96.6	2
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Chicago Bears	108.5	107.5	106.6	106.1	2
Green Bay Packers	107.2	106.4	104.3	105.2	2.5
Detroit Lions	99.7	100.0	101.7	100.1	2.5
Minnesota Vikings	96.8	99.6	100.8	102.6	3.5
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Atlanta Falcons	105.4	106.5	106.0	107.6	3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	102.8	102.4	100.2	101.6	2.5
New Orleans Saints	100.7	102.0	102.9	103.2	3
Carolina Panthers	94.0	94.4	96.7	94.6	1.5
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
San Francisco 49ers	108.0	106.5	103.5	104.6	2
Seattle Seahawks	103.5	103.4	103.2	103.1	4.5
Arizona Cardinals	97.3	95.7	96.9	93.6	3
St. Louis Rams	96.5	97.8	98.3	99.1	4.5
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
New England Patriots	108.8	106.3	102.8	103.1	1.5
Miami Dolphins	98.7	98.5	98.0	98.1	1
New York Jets	97.2	95.9	94.7	94.1	3
Buffalo Bills	95.5	96.6	99.6	97.6	3
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Baltimore Ravens	104.1	104.9	105.1	105.6	4.5
Pittsburgh Steelers	102.1	102.7	101.1	103.1	3
Cincinnati Bengals	99.7	100.5	101.2	101.1	4
Cleveland Browns	93.8	94.1	95.2	94.1	2
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Houston Texans	110.1	109.6	109.1	108.7	3
Indianapolis Colts	95.4	98.6	100.0	102.1	4
Tennessee Titans	94.5	96.5	97.3	98.6	2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	89.3	90.3	90.6	91.1	0.5
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Denver Broncos	109.4	108.4	105.6	107.1	3
San Diego Chargers	98.3	97.9	99.7	97.1	3
Oakland Raiders	92.5	93.1	93.3	93.6	4.5
Kansas City Chiefs	91.2	90.3	89.7	89.1	2

 

Note: HFA is not merely home field advantage.  It is a combination of home field advantage plus the next opponents’ visiting team disadvantage.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vintage	Vegas	Totals
Miami	BUFFALO	0.2	-1.1	-4.6	-2.5	-1 1/2	45 1/2
WASHINGTON	Philadelphia	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	3 1/2	43 1/2
Green Bay	DETROIT	5.0	3.9	0.1	2.6	3 1/2	51 1/2
ATLANTA	Arizona	11.1	13.8	12.1	17.0	10	44
Tampa Bay	CAROLINA	7.3	6.5	2.0	5.5	1 1/2	48 1/2
DALLAS	Cleveland	9.0	8.0	6.4	7.0	7 1/2	43 1/2
ST. LOUIS	New York Jets	3.8	6.4	8.1	9.5	3	38 1/2
NEW ENGLAND	Indianapolis	14.9	9.7	4.3	2.5	9	53 1/2
HOUSTON	Jacksonville	23.8	22.3	21.5	20.6	15 1/2	40 1/2
Cincinnati	KANSAS CITY	6.5	8.2	9.5	10.0	3 1/2	43 1/2
New Orleans	OAKLAND	3.7	4.4	5.1	5.1	4 1/2	54 1/2
DENVER	San Diego	14.1	13.5	8.9	13.0	7 1/2	48 1/2
PITTSBURGH	Baltimore	1.0	0.8	-1.0	0.5	-3 1/2	41
SAN FRANCISCO	Chicago	1.5	1.0	-1.1	0.5	5	NL