The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 16, 2015

NFL Report For Week 2–September 10-14, 2015

What an amazing week one for the NFL season.  The game pitting the worst two teams from 2014 featured the two most recent Heisman Trophy winners.  Tampa Bay and Jameis Winston hosted Tennessee and Marcus Mariota.

If you didn’t see the outcome or the stats from that game, all you have to do is look at this week’s Sports Illustrated cover.  Mariota graces the cover of SI for the second time in five months and the sixth time overall.

The 2015 Heisman Trophy winner completed 13 of 16 passes for 209 yards and 4 TDs, as the Titans raced to a 35-7 halftime lead.  Mariota’s four TD passes came in the first half, and backup Zach Mettenberger replaced him in the second half, so Mariota’s day ended with just 16 pass attempts.

On his first touchdown pass, Mariota was aligned in the shotgun and apparently handed off to running back Bishop Sankey.  Even the CBS announcer began his play-by-play of the play in question by saying, “Mariota, he gives it to…”

Mariota’s fake from the apparent zone read play forced the Buccaneer linebackers to freeze, while Kendall Wright found the hole in the secondary coverage.  Mariota hit Wright in the seam of what looked like a cover 1 defense (man-to-man with a free safety), leading him perfectly and zipping the ball on a rope.  Wright caught the ball in full stride without hesitation and then split defenders to finish the 52 yard play.

One play does not foretell a Hall of Fame career, but Mariota gave several more examples that he could be a legitimate future star.  In earning NFL Player of The Week and Rookie Player of The Week honors, Mariota placed himself in some ritzy company.

Only one quarterback in the history of the NFL tossed four touchdown passes in his first game.  That man was Hall of Famer Fran Tarkenton, who while playing for the expansion team Minnesota Vikings, did this in 1961 against the Chicago Bears.  Tarkenton needed all four quarters to record the feat; Mariota did it in less than 30 minutes.

Mariota’s maximum QB rating for his first game has never been equaled in the history of the NFL back to 1933.  No QB who threw at least 10 passes in his first game ever recorded a 158.3 rating in his first start.

What about an encore?  Unless Josh McCown makes a miraculous recovery from a concussion and is cleared to play Sunday, Mariota gets to face the Heisman Trophy winner from the year before his adversary Winston.  The Titans venture north to take on Johnny Football (Manziel) and the Cleveland Browns.

Thursday night gives the public a chance to view Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos taking on Kansas City.  Manning’s season opener was a bit concerning for the Broncos.  His 24-40-1 for 150 yards and 0 TD and a bad back have football pundits wondering if maybe the time has come for Manning to become a full-time pizzeria owner.

Those pundits are not seeing the entire field.  The Broncos have a lot of problems, but Manning is not the primary concern.  Yes, Manning has lost some zip on his passes, but Denver has many more worries, like a green offensive line, no running game, and just two quality receivers.  Oh, and the Broncos were not playing against the Tampa Bay defense.  Baltimore’s defense has produced a lot of long days for opposing quarterbacks.

Let’s at least get through September before we crown Mariota the next superstar and proclaim Manning’s career over.

 

This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Dallas 106.3 105.0 106.8 106.0 1-0-0 27 26
Philadelphia 104.0 103.3 104.2 103.8 0-1-0 24 26
N.Y. Giants 100.5 100.3 101.2 100.7 0-1-0 26 27
Washington 93.0 92.0 92.1 92.4 0-1-0 10 17
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 108.3 107.2 108.6 108.0 1-0-0 31 23
Detroit 102.7 101.6 102.6 102.3 0-1-0 28 33
Minnesota 99.2 96.1 100.3 98.5 0-1-0 3 20
Chicago 96.0 95.4 96.3 95.9 0-1-0 23 31
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Carolina 100.9 100.7 101.1 100.9 1-0-0 20 9
New Orleans 99.5 95.1 99.9 98.2 0-1-0 19 31
Atlanta 96.4 96.7 96.8 96.6 1-0-0 26 24
Tampa Bay 89.3 90.4 88.7 89.5 0-1-0 14 42
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Seattle 106.7 106.2 106.6 106.5 0-1-0 31 34
Arizona 101.9 100.8 102.5 101.7 1-0-0 31 19
San Francisco 100.6 98.2 100.7 99.8 1-0-0 20 3
St. Louis 97.0 99.3 96.4 97.6 1-0-0 34 31
               
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 107.8 107.7 107.6 107.7 1-0-0 28 21
Buffalo 101.2 102.3 101.5 101.7 1-0-0 27 14
Miami 98.9 100.4 98.4 99.2 1-0-0 17 10
N. Y. Jets 98.9 99.0 99.1 99.0 1-0-0 31 10
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 106.4 104.8 107.7 106.3 0-1-0 13 19
Cincinnati 103.6 104.3 103.6 103.8 1-0-0 33 13
Pittsburgh 102.9 103.0 102.8 102.9 0-1-0 21 28
Cleveland 94.2 91.9 94.0 93.4 0-1-0 10 31
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 103.3 104.1 103.0 103.5 0-1-0 14 27
Houston 97.3 98.8 96.9 97.7 0-1-0 20 27
Tennessee 96.7 96.7 97.8 97.1 1-0-0 42 14
Jacksonville 89.7 94.5 88.4 90.9 0-1-0 9 20
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Denver 105.9 105.1 105.5 105.5 1-0-0 19 13
San Diego 101.0 101.9 100.9 101.3 1-0-0 33 28
Kansas City 100.5 102.5 100.8 101.3 1-0-0 27 20
Oakland 89.4 94.7 87.2 90.4 0-1-0 13 33
This Week’s Games
         
Week Number: 2      
Date of Games: September 17-21      
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Kansas City Denver -2.4 0.4 -1.7
Carolina Houston 6.6 4.9 7.2
Pittsburgh San Francisco 6.3 8.8 6.1
New Orleans Tampa Bay 12.7 7.2 13.7
Minnesota Detroit -1.0 -3.0 0.2
Chicago Arizona -2.9 -2.4 -3.2
Buffalo New England -4.1 -2.9 -3.6
Cincinnati San Diego 6.1 5.9 6.2
Cleveland Tennessee 0.5 -1.8 -0.8
NY Giants Atlanta 7.1 6.6 7.4
Washington St. Louis -1.0 -4.3 -1.3
Jacksonville Miami -7.2 -3.9 -8.0
Oakland Baltimore -13.5 -6.6 -17.2
Philadelphia Dallas 0.7 1.3 0.4
Green Bay Seattle 4.6 4.0 5.0
Indianapolis NY Jets 7.4 8.1 6.9

 

September 6, 2015

NFL Report For Week 1–September 10-14, 2015

The 2015 NFL Football season begins with major quarterback news.  Tom Brady, expected to be out four games, is now in.  Tim Tebow, expected to be in as an Eagle reserve, is now out.  Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, the 2013 and 2014 Heisman Trophy winners, face off in week one in football’s equivalent of Magic Johnson and Larry Bird.  Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 100% healthy, but he hasn’t a healthy top-flight receiver.  Former Heisman winners RGIII and Johnny Football begins the year as backups, while veterans Matt Flynn, Christian Ponder, and Matt Cassel are men without a country, er team.  As for Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Harvard scholar inherits the unenviable task of trying not to throw interceptions (3.5% rate for career) for the Jets, where each bad play will be scrutinized like the name on the back of the jersey reads, “Trump” or “Clinton.”

 

By next Sunday, all will be well, and on the field results will take over for off the field news.  The PiRates have finalized the preseason ratings and have calculated their first spreads of the season.

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Dallas 106.9 105.6 107.6 106.7 0-0-0 0 0
Philadelphia 104.7 103.9 105.2 104.6 0-0-0 0 0
N.Y. Giants 99.9 99.7 100.4 100.0 0-0-0 0 0
Washington 93.2 92.1 92.5 92.6 0-0-0 0 0
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 108.5 107.5 109.1 108.4 0-0-0 0 0
Detroit 102.9 101.8 103.4 102.7 0-0-0 0 0
Minnesota 100.5 97.4 101.9 99.9 0-0-0 0 0
Chicago 95.8 95.1 95.8 95.6 0-0-0 0 0
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Carolina 100.8 100.0 101.0 100.6 0-0-0 0 0
New Orleans 100.1 95.4 101.1 98.9 0-0-0 0 0
Atlanta 95.7 96.1 95.8 95.9 0-0-0 0 0
Tampa Bay 92.1 93.4 92.0 92.5 0-0-0 0 0
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Seattle 107.8 106.9 108.0 107.6 0-0-0 0 0
Arizona 101.3 100.5 101.3 101.0 0-0-0 0 0
San Francisco 99.3 96.9 99.1 98.4 0-0-0 0 0
St. Louis 95.9 98.6 95.0 96.5 0-0-0 0 0
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 107.9 107.9 107.9 107.9 0-0-0 0 0
Buffalo 99.8 100.6 99.6 100.0 0-0-0 0 0
Miami 98.7 100.3 98.0 99.0 0-0-0 0 0
N. Y. Jets 97.7 98.2 97.5 97.8 0-0-0 0 0
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 106.7 105.1 108.2 106.7 0-0-0 0 0
Cincinnati 102.9 103.3 102.9 103.0 0-0-0 0 0
Pittsburgh 102.8 102.8 102.5 102.7 0-0-0 0 0
Cleveland 95.4 92.7 95.6 94.6 0-0-0 0 0
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 104.7 105.8 104.9 105.1 0-0-0 0 0
Houston 97.6 99.1 97.5 98.1 0-0-0 0 0
Tennessee 93.9 93.7 94.5 94.0 0-0-0 0 0
Jacksonville 89.8 95.2 88.5 91.2 0-0-0 0 0
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Denver 105.6 104.8 105.0 105.1 0-0-0 0 0
San Diego 100.8 101.7 100.1 100.9 0-0-0 0 0
Kansas City 100.2 102.2 100.2 100.9 0-0-0 0 0
Oakland 90.1 95.7 87.9 91.2 0-0-0 0 0

Week One Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
New England Pittsburgh 8.1 8.1 8.4
Arizona New Orleans 4.2 8.1 3.2
Buffalo Indianapolis -1.9 -2.2 -2.3
Chicago Green Bay -9.7 -9.4 -10.3
Dallas N. Y. Giants 9.5 8.4 9.7
Denver Baltimore 1.9 2.7 -0.2
Houston Kansas City -0.6 -1.1 -0.7
Jacksonville Carolina -9.0 -2.8 -10.5
N. Y. Jets Cleveland 4.8 8.0 4.4
Oakland Cincinnati -9.8 -4.6 -12.0
San Diego Detroit 0.9 2.9 -0.3
St. Louis Seattle -8.9 -5.3 -10.0
Tampa Bay Tennessee 0.7 2.2 0.0
Washington Miami -3.5 -6.2 -3.5
Atlanta Philadelphia -6.5 -5.3 -6.9
San Francisco Minnesota 1.8 2.5 0.2

 Coming later this week:  Our solution to shortening the preseason while gaining revenue and increasing the fan base.

 

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