The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 9, 2017

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Divisional Playoff Round: January 14-15, 2017

Saturday, January 14, 2017

Game 1: Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons

Time: 4:35 PM EST

TV: Fox

Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4 1/2

Total Line: 51

 

PiRate Rating: Atlanta by 6.5

Mean Rating: Atlanta by 9.0

Bias Rating: Atlanta by 6.1

PiRate Total: 56

 

100 Simulations

Atlanta wins 63

Seattle wins 37

Average Score: Atlanta 29  Seattle 24

Outlier A: Atlanta 37  Seattle 16

Outlier B: Seattle 24  Atlanta 9

 

Game 2: Houston Texans at New England Patriots

Time: 8:15 PM EST

TV: CBS

Vegas Line: New England by 16

Total Line: 45

 

PiRate Rating: New England by 17.8

Mean Rating: New England by 15.5

Bias Rating: New England by 19.5

PiRate Total: 45

 

100 Simulations

New England wins 96

Houston wins 4

Average Score: New England 37  Houston 17

Outlier A: New England 56  Houston 7

Outlier B: Houston 24  New England 20

 

Sunday, January 15, 2017

Game 1: Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

Time: 1:05 PM EST

TV: NBC

Vegas Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2

Total Line: 45 1/2

 

PiRate Rating: Kansas City by 2.9 

Mean Rating: Kansas City by 3.1

Bias Rating: Kansas City by 3.0

Total Line: 46

 

100 Simulations

Kansas City wins 53

Pittsburgh wins 47

Average Score: Kansas City 23  Pittsburgh 23 (KC 23.3 Pit 22.9)

Outlier A: Kansas City 27  Pittsburgh 10

Outlier B: Pittsburgh 34  Kansas City 13

 

Game 2: Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys

Time: 4:40 PM EST

TV: Fox

Vegas Line: Dallas by 4

Total Line: 52

 

PiRate Rating: Dallas by 2.7 

Mean Rating: Dallas by 3.5

Bias Rating: Dallas by 3.2

Total Line: 52

 

100 Simulations

Dallas wins 43

Green Bay wins 57

Average Score: Green Bay 33  Dallas 28

Outlier A: Dallas 34  Green Bay 20

Outlier B: Green Bay 38  Dallas 16

January 4, 2017

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Wildcard Playoff Round: January 7-8, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:31 am

NFL Playoffs–Wildcard Round

Oakland Raiders (12-4-0) at Houston Texans (9-7-0)

Saturday, January 7, 4:35 PM EST

TV: ESPN

Las Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2,

Totals Line: 36 1/2

Note: Raiders’ rookie QB Connor Cook will start

Texans expect to start Brock Osweiler at QB who will play at less than 100%

PiRate Spread: Houston by 2.7

Mean Spread: Houston by 3.0

Bias Spread: Houston by 1.8

Totals Spread: 46 points

100 Simulations

Houston wins 77

Oakland wins 23

Average score: Houston 23  Oakland 18

Outlier A: Houston 41  Oakland 13

Outlier B: Oakland 34  Houston 16

 

Detroit Lions (9-7-0) at Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1)

Saturday, January 7, 8:15 PM EST

TV: NBC

Las Vegas Line: Seattle by 8

Totals Line: 43

PiRate Spread: Seattle by 8.6

Mean Spread: Seattle by 6.9

Bias Spread: Seattle by 9.3

Totals Spread: 43 points

100 Simulations

Seattle wins 86

Detroit wins 14

Average Score: Seattle 26  Detroit 16

Outlier A: Seattle 42  Detroit 13

Outlier B: Detroit 27  Seattle 20

 

Miami Dolphins (10-6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5-0)

Sunday, January 8, 1:05 PM EST

TV: CBS

Note: Miami QB Ryan Tannehill is out for this game.  Matt Moore will start.

Las Vegas Spread: Pittsburgh by 10

Totals Spread: 47

PiRate Spread: Pittsburgh by 9.9

Mean Spread: Pittsburgh by 9.8

Bias Spread: Pittsburgh by 10.0

Totals Spread: 45 points

100 Simulations

Pittsburgh wins 73

Miami wins 27

Average Score: Pittsburgh 25  Miami 20

Outlier A: Pittsburgh 35  Miami 10

Outlier B: Miami 19  Pittsburgh 10

 

New York Giants (11-5-0) at Green Bay Packers (10-6-0)

Sunday, January 8, 4:40 PM EST

TV: Fox

Las Vegas Line: Green Bay by 5

Totals Line: 44 1/2

PiRate Spread: Green Bay by 5.6

Mean Spread: Green Bay by 6.1

Bias Spread: Green Bay by 5.0

Totals Spread: 57 points

100 simulations

Green Bay wins 59

New York wins 41

Average Score: Green Bay 26  New York 24

Outlier A: Green Bay 31  New York 13

Outlier B: New York 30  Green Bay 17

December 27, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 17: January 1, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:46 am

Not Much Left To Be Decided
Week 16’s results greatly reduced the importance of the season’s final week. 10 of the 12 playoff spots have been earned already, and from the remaining spots left to be awarded, just three teams will vie for them.

AFC
We know that New England, Oakland, PIttsburgh, Houston, Kansas City, and Miami will be the six conference teams in the playoffs, but there is still some work to be done to determine the exact seeding. It is not that hard at this point.

New England holds the key to home field advantage to the Super Bowl. If the Patriots win this weekend against Miami, they secure the #1 seed. If Oakland loses to Denver, then the Pats also would get the top seed, win or lose.

Oakland can still earn the top seed if the Raiders (sans QB Derek Carr) beat Denver, and Miami beats New England. If Oakland and New England both win, the Raiders will be the #2 seed.

Pittsburgh has clinched the #3 seed and will host the #6 seed wildcard team, no matter what happens this weekend.

Houston has clinched the #4 seed and will host the #5 seed wildcard team, no matter what happens this weekend.

In the West, if Kansas City wins at San Diego, and Oakland loses to Denver, then the Chiefs will win the division, claim the #2 seed, and earn a bye to the divisional playoff round, while Oakland drops to the #5 seed.

If Kansas City and Oakland both win, then Oakland wins the division and first round bye, while KC becomes the #5 Seed. If Kansas City loses, and Miami wins over New England, then the Dolphins jump over KC for the #5 seed, pushing the Chiefs back to #6. A Chiefs win or Dolphins loss would leave Miami as the #6 seed.

NFC
Dallas has clinched the top seed overall and will enjoy a first round bye and home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs. Their finale against Philadelphia is meaningless, so Tony Romo could get to see action this weekend.

The leader for the #2 seed and first round bye going into Week 17 is Atlanta. If the Falcons beat New Orleans, they clinch the bye. If Atlanta loses, and Seattle bests San Francisco, the Seahawks would then elevate to the #2 seed. Additionally, if thr Falcons lose, and Detroit beats Green Bay, Atlanta would fall to #4 seed, while the Lions jump to #3.

If both Seattle and Atlanta lose, and then Detroit beats Green Bay, the Lions would move into the #2 seed slot and earn a bye.

Green Bay cannot jump over Atlanta if the Packers beat the Lions, while Atlanta loses to New Orleans, regardless of what Seattle does. The Packers lose all tiebreakers to the Falcons.

As for the last two playoff spots, the Giants have clinched the #5 seed and their game with Washington is meaningless to them. However, it means everything to the Redskins. A Washington win to move to 9-6-1 puts the Redskins in the playoffs over the loser of the Green Bay-Detroit game. If Washington loses this game, then the loser of the Packers-Lions game would back into the #6 Seed.

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 111.3 109.8 112.3 111.1 68 43
Buffalo 101.5 101.8 101.7 101.7 63 39
Miami 99.4 99.1 99.9 99.4 60 39
N. Y. Jets 92.3 91.8 92.4 92.2 57 35
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 105.2 104.9 105.7 105.3 63 42
Baltimore 101.0 101.8 100.9 101.2 61 40
Cincinnati 101.2 101.0 101.2 101.2 59 42
Cleveland 88.8 89.6 88.7 89.0 56 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Indianapolis 100.1 101.4 99.8 100.4 64 36
Houston 97.5 98.1 97.0 97.5 60 38
Tennessee 96.8 97.7 96.5 97.0 59 38
Jacksonville 95.1 96.1 94.9 95.4 60 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Kansas City 105.5 105.3 106.1 105.6 65 41
Oakland 102.2 102.7 102.9 102.6 67 36
Denver 102.6 102.1 101.8 102.1 60 42
San Diego 97.6 98.6 97.2 97.8 63 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 105.7 105.1 106.2 105.7 64 42
Washington 102.1 101.6 102.2 102.0 62 40
N.Y. Giants 100.0 99.4 100.3 99.9 62 38
Philadelphia 99.9 98.9 99.5 99.4 60 39
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Green Bay 103.0 102.7 102.9 102.9 67 36
Minnesota 99.5 99.3 99.1 99.3 57 42
Detroit 99.3 99.1 99.0 99.1 61 38
Chicago 92.8 92.0 92.5 92.5 55 38
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 108.6 109.1 108.8 108.8 72 37
Carolina 101.5 101.5 101.6 101.5 60 42
New Orleans 101.1 101.6 101.5 101.4 68 33
Tampa Bay 101.3 101.4 101.4 101.4 63 38
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 105.1 103.2 105.5 104.6 63 42
Arizona 102.5 101.7 102.4 102.2 63 39
Los Angeles 92.9 93.7 92.3 93.0 54 39
San Francisco 89.1 90.0 88.6 89.2 55 34

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Atlanta New Orleans 10.5 10.5 10.3 70
Cincinnati Baltimore 2.2 1.2 2.3 38
Detroit Green Bay -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 54
Indianapolis Jacksonville 7.0 7.3 6.9 63
Miami New England -8.9 -7.7 -9.4 48
Minnesota Chicago 8.7 9.3 8.6 33
New York Jets Buffalo -8.2 -9.0 -8.3 47
Philadelphia Dallas -1.8 -2.2 -2.7 44
Pittsburgh Cleveland 17.4 16.3 18.0 45
Tampa Bay Carolina 0.8 0.9 0.8 44
Tennessee Houston 0.3 0.6 0.5 44
Washington New York Giants 5.1 5.2 4.9 46
Denver Oakland 3.4 2.4 1.9 47
Los Angeles Arizona -8.6 -7.0 -9.1 39
San Diego Kansas City -6.9 -5.7 -6.9 52
San Francisco Seattle -13.0 -10.2 -13.9 44

 

December 20, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 16: December 22-26, 2016

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:30 am

This Week’s Playoff Scenarios

There are still more than four billion playoff scenarios with just two weeks left in the season, so it is impossible to list every scenario left.  However, for most teams still in the race, their paths are for the most part clear.

AFC East

New England has clinched the division title and a bye to the Divisional Round.  The Patriots would clinch home field advantage and the top seed by winning out (vs. NYJ, @Mia) or by winning one game while Oakland loses one game or if Oakland loses both games.

 

Miami clinches a wildcard berth by winning one of its remaining two games (@Buf, vs. NE).  The Dolphins cannot make the playoffs at 9-7.

 

Buffalo’s slight chance of earning the #6 seed require the Bills to win twice (vs. Mia, @NYJ), a lot of other things to occur.  The computer lists Buffalo with about a 3% chance of making the playoffs.  Here is one scenario that works.

This Week: Jacksonville must beat Tennessee, Oakland must beat Indianapolis, Cincinnati must beat Houston, and Pittsburgh must beat Baltimore

Next Week: Cincinnati must beat Baltimore, New England must beat Miami, and Oakland must beat Denver

AFC North

Pittsburgh wins the division if they beat Baltimore this week at Heinz Field.  They can still win the division if they lose to Baltimore this week, and then Baltimore loses at Cincinnati while the Steelers defeat Cleveland in the final week.  The Steelers have numerous opportunities of earning a wildcard if they lose this week and win next week to finish 10-6 and very limited opportunities of earning a wildcard if they lose both remaining games.

 

Baltimore can win the division title by winning out or by beating Pittsburgh this week and then both the Steelers and Ravens lose their season finales.  The Ravens have limited possibilities of earning a wildcard if they lose to Pittsburgh and beat Cincinnati to finish 9-7.

 

AFC South

This is an interesting scenario.  As far as the division title goes, it does not matter what Houston does this week against Cincinnati.  In theory, they could rest their starters and lose to the Bengals and then would become division champs if they beat Tennessee in Week 17.  The Texans still have a very slim (less than 1 in 300 chance) of earning a wildcard if they win this week and lose next week, but it is so infinitesimally small, that Houston would be best served by concentrating all their efforts on the Titans.  Then, there is the opportunity to clinch the division this week should Jacksonville upset Tennessee.  The Texans will know the outcome of the Titans’ game before they play Cincinnati.

Tennessee must win out to win the division, or they must beat Houston next week if the Texans and Titans both lose this week.  However, under this scenario, the Titans can only win the division at 9-7 if Indianapolis loses one of its final two games.  The Titans have a slim wildcard chance, but it is a little better than the Texans’ wildcard chance.

 

Indianapolis can still win the division by winning out with Houston losing both of its final two games and Tennessee losing to Jacksonville.   The Colts still have a tiny wildcard shot if they win out.  That chance is smaller than Buffalo’s.

 

AFC West

Oakland must finish a game ahead of Kansas City to win the division.  Two Raider wins, and one Patriot loss would give the Raiders home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.  One Oakland win guarantees a first round bye, but the Raiders can still clinch a bye with two losses if Pittsburgh loses a game.

Kansas City wins the division in any tie with Oakland.  The Chiefs would receive a first round bye if they finish with two wins, and Pittsburgh loses one game.  KC wins the wildcard unless they lose their final two games (vs. Den, @SD) and Baltimore wins out, while Pittsburgh and Miami both finish 10-6.

Denver has numerous possibilities in their route to the #6 seed.  The Broncos must win out (@KC, vs. Oak), and then need help from losses by Miami and Baltimore, or a monumental Cleveland upset of Pittsburgh.

NFC East

Dallas needs one win or one New York Giant loss to clinch the top seed and earn home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs.  If the Cowboys lose twice (@Phi, @Was), and Dallas loses twice (vs. Det, @Phi), and the Giants win twice, the Giants earn home field advantage and the top seed.

New York can still be eliminated with two losses and multiple other scenarios including Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Atlanta, and Detroit finishing 10-6.

Washington is still alive and has a very good shot at a wildcard if they win out (@Chi, vs. NYG), and a very slim chance if they lose one of their last two.

 

NFC North

If Detroit beats Green Bay next week, the Lions win the division regardless of what happens in this weeks game at Dallas.  If Green Bay beats Detroit, then the Packers win the division if the two teams finished tied.  Both teams hold limited wildcard possibilities, with the Lions’ chances more than twice as strong.

 

Minnesota holds very slim wildcard hopes.  The Vikings must beat Green Bay and Chicago and then hope Tampa Bay loses out, Washington loses at least once, and Detroit beats Green Bay.

 

NFC South 

Atlanta and Tampa Bay are both looking good with the majority of scenarios placing both teams in the playoffs.  If Atlanta wins just one of its final two games, there are very few scenarios where the Falcons would be eliminated, and if Tampa Bay wins out, there are even fewer scenarios where they would be eliminated.  The Falcons can earn a bye by winning out to finish 11-5, if Seattle loses one of its final two games.

 

NFC West

Seattle has clinched the division and can clinch a first round bye if they win out.  They cannot clinch the number one seed, as only Dallas and the Giants are alive for the top spot.

 

If The Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1 New England
2 Oakland
3 Pittsburgh
4 Houston
5 Kansas City
6 Miami
   
NFC
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Atlanta
4 Detroit
5 N.Y. Giants
6 Tampa Bay

PiRate Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Oakland
2 New England
3 Pittsburgh
4 Tennessee
5 Kansas City
6 Miami
   
NFC Seeding
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Atlanta
4 Detroit
5 New York
6 Tampa Bay

PiRate Playoff Projections Played Out

Wildcard Round
Pittsburgh over Miami
Kansas City over Tennessee
Tampa Bay over Atlanta
N.Y. Giants over Detroit
 
Divisional Round
Oakland over Kansas City
New England over Pittsburgh
Dallas over Tampa Bay
N. Y. Giants over Seattle
 
Conference Championship
Oakland over New England
N. Y. Giants over Dallas
 
Super Bowl 51
N. Y. Giants over Oakland

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 109.7 108.4 110.6 109.6 67 43
Buffalo 101.9 102.1 102.2 102.1 63 39
Miami 99.0 98.8 99.4 99.0 60 39
N. Y. Jets 93.9 93.2 94.1 93.7 57 37
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 105.3 104.9 105.9 105.4 63 42
Cincinnati 101.4 101.1 101.5 101.4 59 42
Baltimore 100.9 101.8 100.7 101.1 61 40
Cleveland 87.5 88.4 87.3 87.7 55 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Indianapolis 100.2 101.5 99.9 100.5 64 37
Tennessee 98.8 99.4 98.8 99.0 61 38
Houston 97.3 98.0 96.7 97.3 60 37
Jacksonville 93.1 94.4 92.6 93.4 58 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Kansas City 103.8 103.8 104.2 103.9 64 40
Denver 104.3 103.6 103.7 103.8 62 42
Oakland 102.1 102.6 102.8 102.5 67 36
San Diego 98.9 99.8 98.6 99.1 63 36
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 104.5 103.9 104.9 104.4 62 42
Washington 100.8 100.5 100.7 100.7 62 39
N.Y. Giants 100.2 99.6 100.6 100.1 62 38
Philadelphia 99.7 98.7 99.2 99.2 60 39
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Green Bay 102.2 102.0 102.0 102.1 66 36
Detroit 100.5 100.3 100.3 100.4 61 39
Minnesota 100.3 100.0 100.0 100.1 57 43
Chicago 94.1 93.1 94.0 93.8 56 38
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 107.5 108.2 107.5 107.7 71 37
Carolina 102.6 102.4 102.9 102.6 60 43
Tampa Bay 101.5 101.6 101.6 101.6 63 39
New Orleans 100.9 101.4 101.3 101.2 68 33
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 106.1 104.0 106.7 105.6 63 43
Arizona 101.5 100.9 101.2 101.2 62 39
Los Angeles 93.7 94.4 93.2 93.8 54 40
San Francisco 88.3 89.3 87.7 88.4 54 34

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Philadelphia New York Giants 1.5 1.1 0.6 47
Buffalo Miami 5.9 6.3 5.8 47
Carolina Atlanta -2.4 -3.3 -2.1 51
Chicago Washington -4.2 -4.9 -4.2 43
Cleveland San Diego -8.4 -8.4 -8.3 51
Green Bay Minnesota 4.4 4.5 4.5 45
Jacksonville Tennessee -2.7 -2.0 -3.2 47
New England New York Jets 18.8 18.2 19.5 45
New Orleans Tampa Bay 2.4 2.8 2.7 60
Oakland Indianapolis 4.9 4.1 5.9 60
Los Angeles San Francisco 7.9 7.6 8.0 33
Seattle Arizona 7.6 6.1 8.5 45
Houston Cincinnati -1.1 -0.1 -1.8 40
Pittsburgh Baltimore 6.9 5.6 7.7 43
Kansas City Denver 2.5 3.2 3.5 45
Dallas Detroit 7.0 6.6 7.6 43

 

 

 

November 8, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 10: November 10-14, 2016

Beginning today, we start posting playoff projections.  Our playoff projections look ahead to remaining schedules and use a combination of Pirate Ratings and home field advantage to estimate the remaining won-loss records of all the teams.  Even though the last place teams do not figure to make the playoffs, we have to project their records as well in order to break ties.

In the AFC, we are projecting that it will take a minimum record of 10-6 to earn a wildcard spot.  It is a tiny bit easier in the NFC as of this week, as we project a 9-6-1 record will qualify for the playoffs.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 110.7 109.2 111.8 110.6 67 44
Buffalo 103.2 103.3 103.7 103.4 63 40
N. Y. Jets 98.4 97.0 99.0 98.1 58 40
Miami 97.0 97.4 97.0 97.1 59 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 102.8 102.7 103.5 103.0 62 41
Cincinnati 102.0 101.7 102.2 102.0 61 41
Baltimore 98.5 99.9 98.1 98.8 61 38
Cleveland 88.9 89.6 88.6 89.0 56 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Houston 98.1 99.0 97.9 98.3 61 37
Indianapolis 97.6 98.8 97.2 97.9 62 36
Tennessee 96.0 97.5 95.6 96.4 58 38
Jacksonville 92.9 94.5 92.2 93.2 58 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 105.6 104.2 105.3 105.0 63 42
Kansas City 103.9 103.9 104.3 104.0 64 40
San Diego 100.5 101.2 100.4 100.7 65 36
Oakland 100.1 100.5 100.5 100.4 65 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 102.8 102.0 103.3 102.7 62 41
Philadelphia 103.2 101.5 102.7 102.5 63 40
Washington 100.3 100.1 100.3 100.2 62 38
N.Y. Giants 99.4 99.0 99.6 99.3 62 37
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 103.1 102.3 103.0 102.8 59 44
Green Bay 101.0 100.9 100.7 100.9 62 39
Detroit 99.0 98.7 98.9 98.9 61 38
Chicago 95.4 94.0 95.1 94.9 56 39
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 103.8 104.9 104.1 104.2 69 35
Carolina 103.5 103.3 103.6 103.5 62 42
New Orleans 100.2 101.4 100.3 100.6 67 34
Tampa Bay 95.3 96.0 94.9 95.4 59 36
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 106.5 104.1 107.1 105.9 62 44
Arizona 105.1 103.4 105.4 104.6 66 39
Los Angeles 98.4 99.4 98.1 98.7 57 42
San Francisco 88.9 90.3 88.0 89.1 53 36

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Baltimore Cleveland 12.1 12.8 12.0 48
Carolina Kansas City 2.6 2.4 2.3 45
Jacksonville Houston -2.7 -2.0 -3.2 49
New Orleans Denver -2.4 0.2 -2.0 54
New York Jets Los Angeles 3.0 0.6 3.9 35
Philadelphia Atlanta 2.4 -0.4 1.6 48
Tampa Bay Chicago 2.9 5.0 2.8 42
Tennessee Green Bay -2.0 -0.4 -2.1 45
Washington Minnesota 0.2 0.8 0.3 41
San Diego Miami 6.5 6.8 6.4 52
Arizona San Francisco 19.2 16.1 20.4 46
Pittsburgh Dallas 3.0 3.7 3.2 44
New England Seattle 7.2 8.1 7.7 43
New York Giants Cincinnati 0.4 0.3 0.4 47

If The Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1 New England
2 Oakland
3 Houston
4 Baltimore
5 Kansas City
6 Denver
   
NFC
1 Dallas
2 Atlanta
3 Seattle
4 Minnesota
5 New York Giants
6 Washington

 

PiRate Ratings Projected Playoffs 

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Oakland
3 Indianapolis
4 Pittsburgh
5 Denver
6 Kansas City
   
NFC Seeding
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Atlanta
4 Detroit
5 New York Giants
6 Washington

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Pittsburgh over Denver

Atlanta over Washington

New York Giants over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

New England over Kansas City

Oakland over Pittsburgh

New York Giants over Dallas

Seattle over Atlanta

 

Conference Championships

New England over Oakland

New York Giants over Seattle

 

SUPER BOWL

New York Giants over New England

January 15, 2016

Computer Simulations: 2016 NFL Playoffs–Divisional Round

Weather will not be as much of a factor this week as it was last week with sub-zero temperatures.  There is a chance for a wet field in the Carolina-Seattle game on Sunday.

The computer simulation was conducted earlier today, and the results are in.

 

All Games will be broadcast on the radio over the Westwood One Radio Network.  To find your local affiliate, follow the link below:

http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

 

Saturday, January 16, 2016

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

Kickoff: 4:35 PM EST

TV: CBS

Las Vegas Line: New England by 4 1/2 to 5

Totals: 42 to 42 1/2

Money Line Avg.: New England -230  Kansas City +190

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: New England by 2.2

Mean: New England by 0.6

Bias: New England by 0.1

 

100 Simulations

New England wins: 50

Kansas City wins: 50

Average score: New England 24.8  Kansas City 24.5

St. Deviation: 11.4

Outlier NE win: 42-14

Outlier KC win: 29-6

 

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals

Kickoff: 8:15 PM EST

TV: NBC

Las Vegas Line: Arizona by 7

Totals: 49 1/2 to 50

Money Line Avg.: Arizona -320  Green Bay +260

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Arizona by 7.7

Mean: Arizona by 7.9

Bias: Arizona by 8.7

 

100 Simulations

Arizona wins: 73

Green Bay wins: 27

Average Score: Arizona 32.1  Green Bay 23.8

St Deviation: 8.4

Outlier Ari win: 45-16

Outlier GB win: 35-23

 

Sunday, January 17, 2016

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers

Kickoff: 1:05 PM EST

TV: Fox

Las Vegas Line: Carolina by 1 1/2 to 2

Totals: 44

Money Line Avg.: Carolina -125  Seattle +105

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Carolina by 0.4

Mean: Carolina by 1.2

Bias: Carolina by 1.9

 

100 Simulations

Carolina wins 43

Seattle wins 57

Average Score: Seattle 19.9  Carolina 18.8

St Deviation: 7.2

Outlier Car win: 26-10

Outlier Sea win: 24-3

 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

Kickoff: 4:40 PM EST

TV: CBS

Las Vegas Line: Denver by 7 to 7 1/2

Totals: 38 1/2 to 39

Money Line Avg.: Denver -340  Pittsburgh +285

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Pittsburgh by 0.8

Mean: Pittsburgh by 1.5

Bias: Pittsburgh by 1.2

 

100 Simulations

Denver wins: 55

Pittsburgh wins: 45

Average Score: Denver 20.0  Pittsburgh 18.6

St Deviation: 8.4

Outlier Den win: 31-10

Outlier Pit win: 24-9

January 12, 2016

PiRate Ratings Divisional Playoff Round Preview

Note: Computer Simulations of the Divisional Playoff Round games will be published Friday after we can input better weather forecasts into the simulator.

 

This Week’s Games
         
Week Number: Divisional Round      
Date of Games: January 16-17      
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
New England Kansas City 2.2 0.6 0.1
Arizona Green Bay 7.7 7.9 8.7
Carolina Seattle 0.4 1.2 1.9
Denver Pittsburgh -0.8 -1.5 -1.2

January 8, 2016

Computer Simulations: 2016 NFL Playoffs–Wildcard Round

Earlier today, we placed all the pertinent statistics, the weather forecasts, and the home field advantages into the good old computer simulator, and it spit out 100 simulations of each NFL game for the Wildcard Weekend.  When we saw the results, we had to make sure we had not made any mistakes in the input, because the output for the four games was very close to identical.

 

After we realized there had been no mistakes, we were left with the thought that all four games are about equal in competitive value.  There were four clear favorites, but the average scores and standard deviations of the four games tells us that these games should all be exciting.  Weather could play a factor in Minneapolis and in Cincinnati.

All Games will be broadcast on the radio over the Westwood One Radio Network.  To find your local affiliate, follow the link below:

http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

Saturday, January 9, 2016

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Houston Texans (9-7)

Kickoff: 4:35 PM EST

TV: ESPN

Las Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3 to 3 1/2

Totals: 40 to 41

Money Line Avg: Kansas City -170  Houston +150

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Kansas City by 1.7

Mean: Kansas City by 0.9

Bias: Kansas City by 0.5

 

100 Simulations

Kansas City Wins: 60

Houston Wins: 40

Avg. Score: Kansas City 21.0  Houston 17.3

St Deviation: 8.3

Outlier KC win: 34-10

Outlier Hou win: 27-6

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)

Kickoff: 8:15 PM EST

TV: CBS

Las Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2 to 3

Totals: 45 1/2 to 46 1/2

Money Line Avg. Pittsburgh -150  Cincinnati +130

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Cincinnati by 2.0

Mean: Cincinnati by 2.3

Bias: Cincinnati by 2.6

 

100 Simulations

Pittsburgh wins: 59

Cincinnati wins: 41

Avg. Score: Pittsburgh 24.5  Cincinnati 22.6

St. Deviation: 8.7

Outlier Pit win: 37-14

Outlier Cin win: 28-9

 

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Seattle Seahawks (10-6) at Minnesota Vikings (11-5)

Kickoff: 1:05 PM EST

TV: NBC

Las Vegas Line: Seattle by 4 1/2 to 5 1/2

Totals: 39 1/2 to 40

Money Line Avg.: Seattle -230  Minnesota +190

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Seattle by 3.0

Mean: Seattle by 2.5

Bias: Seattle by 0.4

 

100 Simulations

Seattle wins 61

Minnesota wins 39

Avg. Score: Seattle 24.7  Minnesota 21.7

St. Deviation: 8.8

Outlier Sea win: 41-14

Outlier Min win: 28-12

 

Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Washington Redskins (9-7)

Kickoff: 4:40 PM EST

TV: Fox

Las Vegas Line: Pick to Washington by 1

Totals: 45 to 45 1/2

Money Line Avg.: Washington -110  Green Bay -110

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Green Bay by 1.1

Mean: Washington by 0.2

Bias: Washington by 1.2

 

100 Simulations

Green Bay wins: 61

Washington wins: 39

Avg. Score: Green Bay 25.9  Washington 22.9

St Deviation: 7.3

Outlier GB win: 34-17

Outlier Was win: 27-16

October 27, 2015

NFL Preview For Week 8: October 29 – November 2, 2015

34% Is Not Good For The Game
34% may be a great figure for the percentage of at bats that result in a base hit for a batter. It can be a great percentage for number of times you win the Daily Double at Keeneland on the race card. But, 34% is an awful number when it applies to the number of NFL teams with winning records through seven weeks.

Only 11 out of the 32 NFL have a winning record at this point in the season. Because 12 teams make the playoffs, if the playoffs began today, there would be one lousy team with a losing record in the playoffs. To make matters worse, that team would be the 3-4 Indianapolis Colts which could easily make the playoffs at 6-10. Worse, they would host a playoff game. It just as easily could be Houston or even Jacksonville, where 6-10 might win the AFC South.

The NFC East is not much better off. The New York Giants might win the division at 8-8. Never have two teams at .500 or below made the playoffs in the same year. If a 9-7 team fails to qualify for the playoffs, while a 6-10 team not only makes the playoffs but hosts a first round game, something is seriously wrong.

Improving The Playoffs

The NFL would be better served by switching to four, eight-team divisions, with two divisions in both conferences. Let the champions of the four divisions earn byes in the first round, with the four best remaining teams in both conferences earning the wildcard spots. Then, the 3rd and 4th seeded teams in both conferences would host the 5th and 6th seeded teams.

For easy argument’s sake, let’s just combine the East and North Divisions and the South and West Divisions. We’ll call the four divisions the AFC Northeast, the AFC Southwest, the NFC Northeast, and the NFC Southwest.

That would change things a lot and make the playoffs much better than it will be. If the season ended today, New England would edge Cincinnati for one bye; Denver would get the Southwest bye; and the two NFC byes would go to Green Bay and Carolina. Not much would change in this regard, although Cincinnati would replace Denver under the old format.

The big change would come in the other playoff spots. Now, the 3-4 Colts would not be in line to host or even make the playoffs. The remaining four AFC playoff bids would go like this:

3rd Seed–Cincinnati
4th Seed–New York Jets
5th Seed–Pittsburgh
6th Seed–Oakland

There would be different home teams in the other conference too. The NFC would go like this:
3rd Seed–Atlanta
4th Seed–Arizona
5th Seed–Minnesota
6th Seed–New York Giants

There still might be an 8-8 or even a 7-9 team in the playoffs, but now they would be the #6 seed playing on the road against a much better team.

Which do you think is a better option?

A. 6-10 Indianapolis hosting 11-5 New York Jets, while the Oakland Raiders stay home at 8-8
B. 13-3 Cincinnati Bengals hosting 8-8 Oakland Raiders, while the Indianapolis Colts stay home at 6-10

Which one of these looks like the better way to choose an NFC champion?

A. 8-8 New York Giants hosting 12-4 Atlanta Falcons
B. 12-4 Atlanta Falcons hosting 8-8 New York Giants

Now for this week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Philadelphia 103.9 103.2 104.3 103.8 3-4-0 160 137
Dallas 102.8 101.3 102.4 102.2 2-4-0 121 158
N.Y. Giants 99.9 99.8 100.1 99.9 4-3-0 166 156
Washington 94.8 94.6 94.6 94.7 3-4-0 148 168
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 108.6 107.9 108.3 108.3 6-0-0 164 101
Minnesota 102.5 100.7 103.8 102.3 4-2-0 124 102
Detroit 98.0 96.2 96.8 97.0 1-6-0 139 200
Chicago 94.4 94.3 94.6 94.4 2-4-0 120 179
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Carolina 103.8 104.1 104.9 104.3 6-0-0 162 110
Atlanta 99.7 99.8 100.2 99.9 6-1-0 193 150
New Orleans 98.0 95.4 98.2 97.2 3-4-0 161 185
Tampa Bay 91.7 92.8 91.5 92.0 2-4-0 140 179
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 107.0 106.4 107.6 107.0 5-2-0 229 133
Seattle 106.5 105.7 106.1 106.1 3-4-0 154 128
St. Louis 97.5 98.8 97.6 98.0 3-3-0 108 119
San Francisco 96.3 94.4 96.2 95.6 2-5-0 103 180
               
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 111.4 111.6 111.8 111.6 6-0-0 213 126
N. Y. Jets 102.3 103.0 103.4 102.9 4-2-0 152 105
Miami 99.4 100.8 98.9 99.7 3-3-0 147 137
Buffalo 99.5 99.8 98.8 99.4 3-4-0 176 173
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Cincinnati 105.9 107.0 106.7 106.5 6-0-0 182 122
Pittsburgh 104.1 104.2 104.3 104.2 4-3-0 158 131
Baltimore 102.2 101.1 102.1 101.8 1-6-0 161 188
Cleveland 94.4 93.7 94.4 94.2 2-5-0 147 182
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 99.9 100.1 99.5 99.8 3-4-0 147 174
Houston 94.7 96.1 94.1 95.0 2-5-0 154 199
Tennessee 92.7 92.5 92.7 92.6 1-5-0 119 139
Jacksonville 90.2 93.1 89.3 90.9 2-5-0 147 207
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Denver 106.2 105.4 105.7 105.8 6-0-0 139 102
Kansas City 99.2 100.1 99.3 99.5 2-5-0 150 172
San Diego 98.1 98.2 97.8 98.0 2-5-0 165 198
Oakland 94.3 97.8 93.9 95.3 3-3-0 144 153
This Week’s Games
         
Week Number: 8      
Date of Games: October 29-November 2      
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
New England Miami 15.0 13.8 15.9
Kansas City (London) Detroit 1.2 3.9 2.5
Atlanta Tampa Bay 10.5 9.5 11.2
Cleveland Arizona -9.1 -9.2 -9.7
St. Louis San Francisco 4.2 7.4 4.4
New Orleans NY Giants 1.1 -1.4 1.1
Chicago Minnesota -5.6 -3.9 -6.7
Baltimore San Diego 7.1 5.9 7.3
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 0.7 -0.3 0.1
Houston Tennessee 5.0 6.6 4.4
Oakland NY Jets -5.0 -2.2 -6.5
Dallas Seattle -0.7 -1.4 -0.7
Denver Green Bay 0.6 0.5 0.4
Carolina Indianapolis 6.9 7.0 8.4

January 17, 2013

PiRate Ratings NFL Conference Championship Game Previews–January 20, 2013

The PiRate Simulator gave back some booty to the mean Vegas Buccaneers last week, going 2-3 in the Divisional Round selections.  This brings the playoff selections results to 10-4.  We cannot lose now, because there are only three games left in which to make selections, and we will not go 0-6.  So, we are playing with house booty.

 

Sunday, January 20, 2013

 

San Francisco 49ers (12-4-1) at Atlanta Falcons (14-3-0)

 

Time: 3:00 PM EST

 

TV: Fox

 

Georgia Dome Forecast: Indoors

 

 

 

PiRate: San Francisco by 1.1

 

PiRate Mean: San Francisco by 0.2

 

PiRate Bias: San Francisco by 0.5

 

PiRate Vintage: Atlanta by 2.0

 

 

 

Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4

 

Totals: 49

 

Money Line:  San Francisco -XXX  Atlanta +XXX

 

 

 

100 Computer Simulations: Atlanta 52 San Francisco 48

 

Average Score: Atlanta 24.6  San Francisco 24.4

 

Standard Deviation: 7.4

 

Outlier Home: Atlanta 30  San Francisco 10

 

Outlier Visitor: San Francisco 19  Atlanta 7

 

Outlier High: 62 Points

 

Outlier Low:  24 Points

 

 

 

PiRate Captain Says: The computer calls this game a statistical dead heat.  We believe possibly that the 49ers are going to find the Falcon defense prepared and ready to slow down Colin Kaepernick and the college-style offense.  Until one of these zone-read option QB’s actually wins a Super Bowl, we are going with the belief that a standard drop-back passer and a prepared defense will win every time when there are just four teams left in the playoffs.

 

 

 

It is just gravy that we get the Falcons as home ‘dogs.  They have the added incentive of being the overlooked team of the four that are left, and we believe Matt Ryan and company are primed to have one of those very memorable games.

 

Baltimore Ravens (12-6-0) at New England Patriots (13-4-0)

Time: 6:30 PM EST

TV: CBS

Gillette Stadium Forecast: Clear with temperatures falling from the low 30’s to the low 20’s during the game

 

PiRate: New England by 10.8

PiRate Mean: New England by 9.2

PiRate Bias: New England by 7.9

PiRate Vintage: New England by 6.7

 

Vegas Line: New England by 9

Totals: 51 ½

Money Line:  New England –XXX  Baltimore +XXX

 

100 Computer Simulations: New England 62  Baltimore 38

Average Score: New England 29.4  Baltimore 23.6

Standard Deviation: 8.4

Outlier Home: New England 48  Baltimore 17

Outlier Visitor: Baltimore 41  New England 20

Outlier High: 79 points

Outlier Low: 44 points

 

PiRate Captain Says: Asking New England to win by double digits in a grudge game rematch of last year’s AFC Championship is asking too much in our opinion. The Patriots should win the game, but we believe that 9 times out of 10, this game would have an outcome with the margin under 7 points, no matter which team won.  We’ll go with those odds and take the Underdog and the points.

 

The weather should be very cold, but dry and not too windy.  Tom Brady and Joe Flacco should provide three hours of quality entertainment and bring this game down to yet another last possession outcome.  Remember in the past though that almost every rematch of a conference championship game has been won by the team that won the year before. 

 

Green Bay won the Ice Bowl rematch with Dallas in 1967 after winning a close one in 1966.  Pittsburgh won the rematch with Houston in 1978 and 1979.  This game ranks up there with those games in historical importance.  It also doesn’t hurt that Green Bay and Pittsburgh were the home teams for those games, and New England is for this one.

 

 

Selections

1. Baltimore +9 ½ vs. New England

2. Atlanta +4 vs. San Francisco

 

3. 10-point Teaser

Baltimore +19 ½ vs. New England

Atlanta +14 vs. San Francisco

Baltimore and New England OVER 41 ½

 

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