| Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
| Tennessee | Cincinnati | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| Green Bay | San Francisco | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| Tampa Bay | Los Angeles | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| Kansas City | Buffalo | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Home | Visitor | Total |
| Tennessee | Cincinnati | 51.5 |
| Green Bay | San Francisco | 52 |
| Tampa Bay | Los Angeles | 55.5 |
| Kansas City | Buffalo | 55 |
Spreads
| Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
| Green Bay | LA Rams | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.5 |
| Buffalo | Baltimore | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.8 |
| Kansas City | Cleveland | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| New Orleans | Tampa Bay | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 |
Totals
| Home | Visitor | Total |
| Green Bay | LA Rams | 46.5 |
| Buffalo | Baltimore | 48 |
| Kansas City | Cleveland | 53.5 |
| New Orleans | Tampa Bay | 58.5 |
| Saturday | January 16 | ||
| Home | Visitor | Network | Time (EST) |
| Green Bay | LA Rams | FOX | 4:35 PM |
| Buffalo | Baltimore | NBC | 8:15 PM |
| Sunday | January 17 | ||
| Home | Visitor | Network | Time (EST) |
| Kansas City | Cleveland | CBS | 3:05 PM |
| New Orleans | Tampa Bay | FOX | 6:40 PM |
| Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
| Buffalo | Miami | 9.3 | 9.1 | 9.7 |
| Chicago | Green Bay | -4.7 | -5.3 | -5.4 |
| Cincinnati | Baltimore | -14.7 | -14.2 | -14.4 |
| Cleveland | Pittsburgh | -1.0 | -1.1 | -0.9 |
| Detroit | Minnesota | -4.4 | -4.3 | -4.3 |
| Indianapolis | Jacksonville | 17.7 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| Kansas City | LA Chargers | 14.7 | 14.6 | 14.4 |
| New England | N.Y. Jets | 8.1 | 6.9 | 7.3 |
| N.Y. Giants | Dallas | -1.2 | -0.7 | -0.6 |
| Philadelphia | Washington | -0.8 | -0.9 | -1.3 |
| Tampa Bay | Atlanta | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Carolina | New Orleans | -5.1 | -5.1 | -4.9 |
| Houston | Tennessee | -3.4 | -3.9 | -4.1 |
| Denver | Las Vegas | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| LA Rams | Arizona | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| San Francisco | Seattle | -2.4 | -3.3 | -3.2 |
| Home | Visitor | Total |
| Buffalo | Miami | 48 |
| Chicago | Green Bay | 45 |
| Cincinnati | Baltimore | 45.5 |
| Cleveland | Pittsburgh | 44.5 |
| Detroit | Minnesota | 54.5 |
| Indianapolis | Jacksonville | 47.5 |
| Kansas City | LA Chargers | 48.5 |
| New England | N.Y. Jets | 37.5 |
| N.Y. Giants | Dallas | 47 |
| Philadelphia | Washington | 43.5 |
| Tampa Bay | Atlanta | 56 |
| Carolina | New Orleans | 53.5 |
| Houston | Tennessee | 56 |
| Denver | Las Vegas | 49 |
| LA Rams | Arizona | 51 |
| San Francisco | Seattle | 52.5 |
| Dec. 29, 2020 | ||||||
| A F C | ||||||
| East | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Buffalo | 109.2 | 110.0 | 110.1 | 109.8 | 22.5 | 12-3 |
| Miami | 101.4 | 102.4 | 101.9 | 101.9 | 25.5 | 10-5 |
| New England | 97.1 | 96.6 | 96.2 | 96.6 | 19.5 | 6-9 |
| N. Y. Jets | 90.0 | 90.7 | 89.9 | 90.2 | 18 | 2-13 |
| North | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Baltimore | 107.9 | 107.8 | 108.0 | 107.9 | 25 | 10-5 |
| Pittsburgh | 101.5 | 101.8 | 101.8 | 101.7 | 19 | 12-3 |
| Cleveland | 99.0 | 99.2 | 99.4 | 99.2 | 25.5 | 10-5 |
| Cincinnati | 92.2 | 92.6 | 92.6 | 92.4 | 20.5 | 4-10-1 |
| South | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Indianapolis | 104.7 | 104.6 | 104.5 | 104.6 | 25.5 | 10-5 |
| Tennessee | 101.5 | 101.6 | 101.8 | 101.6 | 29 | 10-5 |
| Houston | 96.6 | 96.2 | 96.2 | 96.3 | 27 | 4-11 |
| Jacksonville | 88.5 | 88.1 | 88.0 | 88.2 | 22 | 1-14 |
| West | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Kansas City | 109.5 | 109.6 | 109.4 | 109.5 | 26.5 | 14-1 |
| Las Vegas | 99.1 | 99.0 | 98.6 | 98.9 | 29.5 | 7-8 |
| Denver | 97.0 | 96.9 | 97.0 | 97.0 | 19.5 | 5-10 |
| LA Chargers | 96.3 | 96.5 | 96.5 | 96.4 | 22 | 6-9 |
| N F C | ||||||
| East | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Washington | 97.7 | 97.6 | 97.5 | 97.6 | 20 | 6-9 |
| Dallas | 96.6 | 96.8 | 96.5 | 96.6 | 26.5 | 6-9 |
| Philadelphia | 95.9 | 95.7 | 95.2 | 95.6 | 23.5 | 4-10-1 |
| N.Y. Giants | 93.9 | 94.6 | 94.4 | 94.3 | 20.5 | 5-10 |
| North | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Green Bay | 107.8 | 108.0 | 108.6 | 108.1 | 24.5 | 12-3 |
| Chicago | 102.1 | 101.7 | 102.2 | 102.0 | 20.5 | 8-7 |
| Minnesota | 97.3 | 96.7 | 96.6 | 96.8 | 26.5 | 6-9 |
| Detroit | 91.9 | 91.4 | 91.3 | 91.5 | 28 | 5-10 |
| South | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Tampa Bay | 108.0 | 108.0 | 108.5 | 108.2 | 31 | 10-5 |
| New Orleans | 105.8 | 105.5 | 105.8 | 105.7 | 27 | 11-4 |
| Atlanta | 102.7 | 102.0 | 102.5 | 102.4 | 25 | 4-11 |
| Carolina | 99.2 | 98.9 | 99.4 | 99.2 | 26.5 | 5-10 |
| West | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Seattle | 104.2 | 104.7 | 104.7 | 104.6 | 27.5 | 11-4 |
| LA Rams | 102.9 | 102.9 | 103.0 | 102.9 | 23 | 9-6 |
| Arizona | 101.8 | 101.4 | 101.4 | 101.5 | 28 | 8-7 |
| San Francisco | 100.8 | 100.4 | 100.5 | 100.6 | 25 | 6-9 |
—
—
Wild Card Round
Buffalo over Tennessee
Cleveland over Pittsburgh
Baltimore over Indianapolis
New Orleans over Chicago
Seattle over LA Rams
Tampa Bay over Washington
Divisional Round
Cleveland over Kansas City
Buffalo over Baltimore
Green Bay over Tampa Bay
New Orleans over Seattle
Conference Championships
Buffalo over Cleveland
Green Bay over New Orleans
Super Bowl
Buffalo over Green Bay
Home |
Visitor |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Baltimore |
N. Y. Jets |
19.3 |
18.9 |
20.6 |
Detroit |
Tampa Bay |
1.2 |
-1.8 |
-2.0 |
Washington |
Philadelphia |
-6.6 |
-4.1 |
-4.0 |
Green Bay |
Chicago |
1.0 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
Cincinnati |
New England |
-12.2 |
-12.8 |
-11.9 |
Tennessee |
Houston |
4.0 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
Carolina |
Seattle |
-5.0 |
-5.0 |
-5.0 |
Kansas City |
Denver |
7.8 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
N. Y. Giants |
Miami |
5.7 |
5.5 |
5.8 |
Buffalo |
Pittsburgh |
5.3 |
5.7 |
5.2 |
Oakland |
Jacksonville |
4.1 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
Arizona |
Cleveland |
-3.9 |
-4.1 |
-3.6 |
San Francisco |
Atlanta |
13.7 |
14.5 |
15.3 |
Dallas |
LA Rams |
-1.5 |
-0.2 |
-1.2 |
LA Chargers |
Minnesota |
0.1 |
1.3 |
0.4 |
New Orleans |
Indianapolis |
11.2 |
8.3 |
9.2 |
Home |
Visitor |
Total |
Baltimore |
N. Y. Jets |
45.5 |
Detroit |
Tampa Bay |
53.5 |
Washington |
Philadelphia |
42 |
Green Bay |
Chicago |
42.5 |
Cincinnati |
New England |
42 |
Tennessee |
Houston |
44.5 |
Carolina |
Seattle |
50 |
Kansas City |
Denver |
50 |
N. Y. Giants |
Miami |
52 |
Buffalo |
Pittsburgh |
37.5 |
Oakland |
Jacksonville |
43.5 |
Arizona |
Cleveland |
47 |
San Francisco |
Atlanta |
51.5 |
Dallas |
LA Rams |
47 |
LA Chargers |
Minnesota |
44 |
New Orleans |
Indianapolis |
50 |
Current NFL PiRate Ratings |
||||||
A F C |
||||||
East |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
W-L |
New England |
107.8 |
108.4 |
107.8 |
108.0 |
19.5 |
10-3 |
Buffalo |
101.8 |
102.8 |
102.8 |
102.5 |
17.5 |
9-4 |
N. Y. Jets |
94.5 |
95.1 |
94.1 |
94.6 |
21 |
5-8 |
Miami |
89.7 |
90.0 |
89.9 |
89.9 |
27.5 |
3-10 |
|
|
||||||
North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
W-L |
Baltimore |
111.3 |
111.4 |
112.2 |
111.7 |
24.5 |
11-2 |
Pittsburgh |
99.5 |
100.1 |
100.6 |
100.0 |
20 |
8-5 |
Cleveland |
99.2 |
99.5 |
99.5 |
99.4 |
23 |
6-7 |
Cincinnati |
93.2 |
93.1 |
93.4 |
93.2 |
22.5 |
1-12 |
|
|
||||||
South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
W-L |
Tennessee |
102.5 |
103.0 |
103.1 |
102.9 |
20.5 |
8-5 |
Houston |
101.5 |
101.7 |
101.4 |
101.6 |
24 |
8-5 |
Indianapolis |
99.1 |
100.1 |
99.6 |
99.6 |
23.5 |
6-7 |
Jacksonville |
90.7 |
90.7 |
90.5 |
90.6 |
18 |
4-9 |
|
|
||||||
West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
W-L |
Kansas City |
104.4 |
105.1 |
104.9 |
104.8 |
30.5 |
9-4 |
LA Chargers |
104.1 |
104.0 |
103.4 |
103.8 |
22 |
5-8 |
Denver |
99.7 |
100.1 |
99.9 |
99.9 |
19.5 |
5-8 |
Oakland |
91.8 |
91.7 |
91.8 |
91.8 |
25.5 |
6-7 |
|
|
||||||
N F C |
||||||
East |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
W-L |
Dallas |
102.6 |
102.9 |
102.4 |
102.6 |
22 |
6-7 |
Philadelphia |
101.0 |
99.4 |
99.0 |
99.8 |
24 |
6-7 |
N.Y. Giants |
92.9 |
93.0 |
93.2 |
93.0 |
24.5 |
2-11 |
Washington |
91.9 |
92.8 |
92.5 |
92.4 |
18 |
3-10 |
|
|
||||||
North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
W-L |
Minnesota |
106.5 |
105.2 |
105.4 |
105.7 |
22 |
9-4 |
Green Bay |
101.7 |
101.8 |
102.0 |
101.8 |
24.5 |
10-3 |
Chicago |
103.2 |
100.8 |
100.9 |
101.6 |
18 |
7-6 |
Detroit |
97.3 |
95.8 |
95.9 |
96.4 |
23.5 |
3-9-1 |
|
|
||||||
South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
W-L |
New Orleans |
107.3 |
105.4 |
105.8 |
106.2 |
26.5 |
10-3 |
Tampa Bay |
99.1 |
100.6 |
101.0 |
100.2 |
30 |
6-7 |
Atlanta |
98.6 |
98.7 |
98.4 |
98.5 |
26 |
4-9 |
Carolina |
95.2 |
95.0 |
95.2 |
95.1 |
26 |
5-8 |
|
|
||||||
West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
W-L |
San Francisco |
109.3 |
110.2 |
110.7 |
110.1 |
25.5 |
11-2 |
LA Rams |
106.6 |
105.6 |
106.1 |
106.1 |
25 |
8-5 |
Seattle |
103.2 |
103.0 |
103.2 |
103.1 |
24 |
10-3 |
Arizona |
92.8 |
92.9 |
93.4 |
93.0 |
24 |
3-9-1 |
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
Time: 4:35 PM Eastern Standard
TV: NBC
Pirate Ratings Spreads
PiRate: Kansas City by 6.4
Mean: Kansas City by 7.2
Bias: Kansas City by 5.7
Total: 55
Expected Score: Kansas City 31 Indianapolis 24
———————————————————————————-
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams
Time: 8:15 PM Eastern Standard
TV: Fox
Pirate Ratings Spreads
PiRate: Los Angeles by 8.5
Mean: Los Angeles by 8.8
Bias: Los Angeles by 8.8
Total: 49.5
Expected Score: Los Angeles 30 Dallas 21
—————————————————————————-
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
Time: 1:05 PM Eastern Standard
TV: CBS
PiRate Ratings Spreads
PiRate: New England by 3.5
Mean: New England by 2.8
Bias: New England by 2.7
Total: 45.5
Expected Score: New England 24 Los Angeles 21
———————————————————————————-
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints
Time: 4:40 PM Eastern Standard
TV: Fox
PiRate Ratings Spreads
PiRate: New Orleans by 12.8
Mean: New Orleans by 12.5
Bias: New Orleans by 12.4
Total: 49
Expected Score: New Orleans 31 Philadelphia 17
The Land Sharps are limping home to the finish, as the Bowl season did not go so well for our five friends. Let’s give them all some props for faring so well during the regular season. It isn’t easy to stay above the magic 52.4% success rate that a sports investor needs to return a profit, and all five did so throughout the regular season.
Now, here’s something else you should know. If you are a regular reader here, you may recall just after the bowls and playoffs were announced, that we told you about our experiment in playing the Money Line on every bowl game and by investing the identical amount on the underdog to win outright. We tested this out last year with a healthy profit.
If last year was a healthy profit, this year was a giant windfall! Friends, this method drained the imaginary money from the imaginary sports book like it was Jesse and Frank James robbing it. The return on investment was over 61%, as 16 of the 38 underdogs won outright, returning an average of $289 per upset. If you had the funds and could afford to put down $10,000 on the Underdog on the 39 games (which became 38 after the postponement of the former Heart of Dallas Bowl), these money line wagers would have returned just under a quarter million dollars. WOW!
Now, to make it even better. Had you only played the 36 bowl games and not the two playoff games, you would have gone 16-20 and your return on investment would have been 76.5%! Where else can you get a 76.5% return on your investment in 17 days?
Here are the final Land Sharp Picks for the National Championship Game. Our Land Sharps made these selections earlier in the week when the going odds were:
Alabama – 5.5
Clemson +7
Over 59.5
Under 60
Three of the Land Sharps selected Clemson and took the points
Cal Gal Tiffany, Dean615, and Stewed Meat
Two of the Land Sharps selected Alabama and gave the points
Buckeye Michelle and Friday Dog 13
Four of the Land Sharps took the OVER
Cal Gal Tiffany, Dean615, Buckeye Michelle, and Friday Dog 13
One Land Sharp took the UNDER
Stewed Meat
As for the PiRates, we issued our ratings earlier this week, and they showed that Alabama is favored by 1 to 2 points, so if you go by our ratings, the play would be Clemson but without a lot of confidence. As for the Total, our estimate is basically right on the line, so we would lay off the total unless you tease it.
Once playoff season begins, there are fewer and fewer chances to play our successful teasers, but 2018 was a very good one for us, as our NFL Teasers returned a neat little imaginary profit. We hope you understand that our wagering is only hypothetical, as no real currency ever changes hands, and we highly encourage you not to lose your mortgage payment by relying on our selections.
We have two 13-point teaser selections for this week’s Wildcard Round. One is a four-team parlay on sides, and one is a four-team parlay on totals. These parlays both have 12-10 odds.
| Favorite | Underdog | Spread | Pick |
| Indianapolis | Houston | 12 | Houston |
| Dallas | Seattle | 15 | Seattle |
| Baltimore | L.A. Chargers | 16 | L.A. Chargers |
| Chicago | Philadelphia | 19.5 | Philadelphia |
| Team | Team | Total | Pick |
| Houston | Indianapolis | 61.5 | UNDER |
| Dallas | Seattle | 30 | OVER |
| Baltimore | L.A. Chargers | 28.5 | OVER |
| Chicago | Philadelphia | 28 | OVER |
| Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Total |
| Houston | Indianapolis | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 49.5 |
| Dallas | Seattle | -1.6 | -1.9 | -2.8 | 44.5 |
| Baltimore | L.A. Chargers | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 43 |
| Chicago | Philadelphia | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 44.5 |
Saturday, January 5, 2019
4:35 PM Eastern Standard Time
TV: ESPN
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
8:15 PM Eastern Standard Time
TV: Fox Network
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, January 6, 2109
1:05 PM Eastern Standard Time
TV: CBS
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
4:40 PM Eastern Standard Time
TV: NBC
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
The lower remaining seed in the AFC will play at Kansas City on Saturday, January 12, on NBC at 4:35 PM EST
The higher remaining seed in the NFC will play at the Los Angeles Rams on Saturday, January 12, on Fox Network at 8:15 PM EST
The higher remaining seed in the AFC will play at New England on Sunday, January 13, on CBS at 1:05 PM EST
The lower remaining seed in the NFC will play at New Orleans on Sunday, January 13, on Fox Network at 4:40 PM EST
| Playoff Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg. | Total | W-L |
| New Orleans | 112.3 | 112.3 | 112.3 | 112.3 | 27 | 13-3 |
| Kansas City | 106.8 | 107.0 | 106.6 | 106.8 | 30.5 | 12-4 |
| LA Rams | 106.5 | 106.7 | 106.3 | 106.5 | 29 | 13-3 |
| Chicago | 104.9 | 105.1 | 105.8 | 105.3 | 21.5 | 12-4 |
| New England | 105.0 | 105.1 | 104.9 | 105.0 | 22.5 | 11-5 |
| Seattle | 104.6 | 104.7 | 105.2 | 104.8 | 24 | 10-6 |
| LA Chargers | 104.3 | 105.0 | 104.8 | 104.7 | 23 | 12-4 |
| Baltimore | 104.5 | 104.9 | 104.7 | 104.7 | 20 | 10-6 |
| Indianapolis | 102.9 | 102.3 | 103.3 | 102.8 | 25.5 | 10-6 |
| Houston | 102.4 | 102.5 | 103.0 | 102.6 | 24 | 11-5 |
| Philadelphia | 102.4 | 102.6 | 102.5 | 102.5 | 23 | 9-7 |
| Dallas | 100.5 | 100.3 | 99.9 | 100.2 | 20.5 | 10-6 |
Note: The College Basketball Bracket Gurus will debut next week. Most of the gurus are enjoying vacations this week and did not submit their data to us.
This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads
| Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Totals |
| Detroit | Chicago | -2.3 | -2.3 | -3.3 | 49 |
| Dallas | Washington | 5.8 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 41 |
| New Orleans | Atlanta | 16.2 | 16.7 | 17.2 | 53.5 |
| Buffalo | Jacksonville | -4.1 | -3.8 | -4.2 | 36 |
| Baltimore | Oakland | 15.0 | 15.4 | 15.3 | 41.5 |
| Tampa Bay | San Francisco | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 49.5 |
| Philadelphia | N.Y. Giants | 6.3 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 43.5 |
| Cincinnati | Cleveland | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 48 |
| N.Y. Jets | New England | -7.4 | -8.4 | -7.8 | 46 |
| Carolina | Seattle | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 46.5 |
| Indianapolis | Miami | 8.9 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 48.5 |
| L.A. Chargers | Arizona | 10.2 | 11.6 | 10.7 | 41.5 |
| Denver | Pittsburgh | -4.9 | -5.4 | -5.5 | 45 |
| Minnesota | Green Bay | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 46 |
| Houston | Tennessee | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 43 |
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
| A F C | ||||||
| East | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| New England | 104.8 | 105.2 | 104.9 | 105.0 | 23 | 7-3 |
| N. Y. Jets | 94.9 | 94.3 | 94.6 | 94.6 | 23 | 3-7 |
| Miami | 94.8 | 94.4 | 94.5 | 94.5 | 22 | 5-5 |
| Buffalo | 92.6 | 92.5 | 92.2 | 92.4 | 17 | 3-7 |
| North | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Pittsburgh | 107.5 | 107.7 | 107.6 | 107.6 | 24 | 7-2-1 |
| Baltimore | 102.2 | 102.5 | 102.1 | 102.3 | 21 | 5-5 |
| Cincinnati | 96.7 | 97.0 | 96.7 | 96.8 | 24 | 5-5 |
| Cleveland | 96.1 | 96.4 | 96.8 | 96.4 | 24 | 3-6-1 |
| South | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Houston | 101.1 | 101.2 | 101.5 | 101.2 | 24 | 7-3 |
| Indianapolis | 100.7 | 99.8 | 101.0 | 100.5 | 26.5 | 5-5 |
| Jacksonville | 99.2 | 98.8 | 98.9 | 98.9 | 19 | 3-7 |
| Tennessee | 98.1 | 98.2 | 97.8 | 98.0 | 19 | 5-5 |
| West | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Kansas City | 107.6 | 108.0 | 107.9 | 107.8 | 29.5 | 9-2 |
| LA Chargers | 102.9 | 103.6 | 103.1 | 103.2 | 23 | 7-3 |
| Denver | 99.6 | 99.3 | 99.1 | 99.3 | 21 | 4-6 |
| Oakland | 90.6 | 90.6 | 90.3 | 90.5 | 20.5 | 2-8 |
| N F C | ||||||
| East | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Dallas | 100.4 | 100.4 | 100.0 | 100.3 | 19.5 | 5-5 |
| Philadelphia | 99.8 | 99.9 | 99.4 | 99.7 | 22 | 4-6 |
| Washington | 97.6 | 96.8 | 97.6 | 97.3 | 21.5 | 6-4 |
| N.Y. Giants | 95.5 | 95.5 | 95.6 | 95.5 | 21.5 | 3-7 |
| North | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Chicago | 104.2 | 104.2 | 105.0 | 104.5 | 23.5 | 7-3 |
| Minnesota | 102.6 | 102.7 | 102.5 | 102.6 | 21.5 | 5-4-1 |
| Green Bay | 100.3 | 100.9 | 100.1 | 100.4 | 24.5 | 4-5-1 |
| Detroit | 99.0 | 98.9 | 98.7 | 98.9 | 25.5 | 4-6 |
| South | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| New Orleans | 113.8 | 114.0 | 114.4 | 114.1 | 28 | 9-1 |
| Carolina | 102.6 | 102.2 | 102.8 | 102.5 | 24.5 | 6-4 |
| Atlanta | 100.6 | 100.3 | 100.2 | 100.3 | 25.5 | 4-6 |
| Tampa Bay | 94.6 | 94.4 | 94.9 | 94.6 | 27 | 3-7 |
| West | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| LA Rams | 107.2 | 107.7 | 107.2 | 107.4 | 29 | 10-1 |
| Seattle | 102.4 | 102.4 | 102.8 | 102.5 | 22 | 5-5 |
| San Francisco | 95.3 | 95.5 | 95.2 | 95.3 | 22.5 | 2-8 |
| Arizona | 95.2 | 94.6 | 94.9 | 94.9 | 18.5 | 2-8 |
This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections
If Playoffs Began Today
| AFC | |
| 1 | Kansas City |
| 2 | Pittsburgh |
| 3 | New England |
| 4 | Houston |
| 5 | L.A. Chargers |
| 6 | Baltimore |
| NFC | |
| 1 | L.A. Rams |
| 2 | New Orleans |
| 3 | Chicago |
| 4 | Washington |
| 5 | Carolina |
| 6 | Minnesota |
Projections
| AFC Seeding | |
| 1 | Pittsburgh |
| 2 | Kansas City |
| 3 | New England |
| 4 | Houston |
| 5 | L.A. Chargers |
| 6 | Indianapolis |
| NFC Seeding | |
| 1 | New Orleans |
| 2 | L.A. Rams |
| 3 | Chicago |
| 4 | Dallas |
| 5 | Carolina |
| 6 | Seattle |
| Wildcard Round | |||
| Indianapolis over New England | |||
| Houston over L.A. Chargers | |||
| Chicago over Seattle | |||
| Carolina over Dallas |
| Divisional Round | |||
| Pittsburgh over Indianapolis | |||
| Kansas City over Houston | |||
| New Orleans over Carolina | |||
| L.A. Rams over Chicago |
| Conference Championship | |||
| PIttsburgh over Kansas City | |||
| New Orleans over L.A. Rams |
| Super Bowl 53 | |||
| New Orleans over Pittsburgh |
Last Night’s Rams-Chiefs Game Made A Lot of History, BUT…
Last night’s Rams-Chiefs game at the Coliseum in Los Angeles was historic. The 105 points scored, however, was not an all-time regular season high total. Yours truly remembers the one game that tallied 113 total points.
The year was 1966. The Green Bay Packers were trying to win the Western Conference Championship with the Baltimore Colts hot on their heels. In the Eastern Conference, upstart Dallas, a seventh year franchise yet to have experienced a winning record was about to surprise the two-time defending Eastern Conference Champion Cleveland.
It was the Sunday after Thanksgiving. The football world was still talking about the Michigan State-Notre Dame game the week before and the fact that Notre Dame had secured the national title by their 51-0 pasting of USC the day before.
The Washington Redskins were just 5-6 on the dawn of this Sunday. For Redskin fans, this was a high water mark for their franchise in recent years, as the club became known as the “Deadskins” during these years. Legendary quarterback Otto Graham, the Tom Brady of the late 1940’s and 1950’s, had taken over the running of the team, and in his first year as head coach, Washington’s offense was much improved. Quarterback Sonny Jurgensen flourished in the new offense, and the defense was still a work in progress with a couple of aging stars, led by the once best defender in the league in Sam Huff.
The New York Giants were headed in the opposite direction. Just a few years earlier, the Giants rode the arm of Y.A. Tittle to three consecutive Eastern Conference Championships. From the late 1940’s through the early 1960’s, the Giants were the most consistently good team in the NFL, much like the Pittsburgh Steelers have been since the 1970’s. However, by 1966, the Giants had fallen on hard times. This was their worst team in history up to that time and arguably their worst team ever. Coach Allie Sherman’s offense was too inconsistent and conservative, and after half of a season, Sherman benched veteran starter Earl Morrall, when the Giants fell to 1-5-1. The lone win came over the Redskins at Yankee Stadium. At the halfway point, Sherman decided to go with what he believed was the future quarterback, Ivy Leaguer Gary Wood. Wood was in his third season in New York, and he had played sparingly and inefficiently. The Giants lost their next game, and they headed to District of Columbia Stadium (would be renamed Robert F. Kennedy Stadium after his assassination) to face the Redskins in a hope to sweep the one team the players believed they could beat. They entered the game at 1-8-1.
Sherman decided to make another quarterback change for this game. He inserted Rookie Tom Kennedy, a stretch prospect from a small college. This would be Kennedy’s only start of his brief one year career and only real playing experience of the season.
On the other side of the field, the aging Huff prepared for this game like it was Super Bowl I. He hated Sherman, enough to punch him in the jaw if he got the chance. Sherman had dismissed Huff from the Giants following the 1963 season after the Giants lost to the Bears in the NFL Championship. He wanted to punish Sherman, and when the Redskins lost to New York a few weeks earlier, it made Huff even more violent than was portrayed in the spectacular documentary, “The Violent World of Sam Huff.”
Huff fired up his teammates for this game. The Redskins put in a game plan to blitz the daylights out of the raw rookie. They would rush him and force him to get rid of the ball quickly or prepare to accept a lot of floral bouquets in his upcoming hospital room.
On the other side of the ball, the Redskins understood that with an erratic quarterback most likely unable to sustain many drives, that they would get many opportunities to exploit the worst defense in the NFL. The Redskins’ players felt confident that they could top 30 points in this game and win by double digits.
The Giants won the toss that day. It would be their only win of the day. Kennedy was thrown into the fray quickly, and on his first pass attempt, Washington blitzed and forced him to pass quickly. The ball was well off target and was intercepted and returned deep into Giants’ territory. A short Redskin drive led to an immediate touchdown. The PAT was blocked, and the score was 6-0 Redskins.
Kennedy improved somewhat the rest of the first quarter. He improved from intercepted passes to incomplete passes. At least, punter Ernie Koy pinned the Redskins back inside their own 25 yard line.
The Giants figured that they would have to stop Jurgensen’s pinpoint deep passes to all-pro end Charley Taylor. This opened up running lanes, and halfback A.D. Whitfield broke free for the longest run in his career, over 60 yards for the second touchdown. The PAT was good this time, and the Redskins led 13-0 after the end of the first quarter. Nobody could guess what would happen next.
In the second quarter, Kennedy began to complete some passes and drove the Giants into Washington territory. A pass play was called with an option to throw the ball to the end zone. Facing a linebacker blitz, Chris Hanburger clobbered Kennedy into the ground, and he coughed up the ball going down. Rookie defensive back Brig Owens would be a star one day, but on this day, he would have his best ever game. He already had an interception in this game, and he scooped up the fumble and went all the way to the house for a Redskins’ touchdown. Now, the score was 20-0, and the Giants could see the writing on the wall.
On the next possession, Kennedy had his career moment. He drove the Giants 70+ yards for a touchdown to cut the lead to 20-7. Kennedy felt confident on the sideline that he could lead the Giants back into this game. After the defense forced Washington to punt, Kennedy began to move the Giants toward midfield, when he threw his second interception of the half. A few plays later, Washington scored on a line plunge to make it 27-7 with time left to completely put the game away before halftime.
Once again, the key weapon for the Redskins just before the half was their defensive backfield. Kennedy threw his third interception into the hands of future Minnesota Vikings’ Hall of Famer Paul Krause. Jurgensen quickly led the Redskins to paydirt, and Washington led 34-7 with less than two minutes remaining in the half. At this point, Sherman had seen enough of Kennedy. He inserted Wood into the game, and Wood directed the Giants on a quick touchdown drive to cut the lead to 34-14 at the half.
In the locker room, Huff told his teammates not to let up and to pour it on New York. He wanted to top 50 points, maybe even get to 60. He knew the Giants’ defense would totally fold in the second half. In the other locker room, Sherman decided to stick with Wood at quarterback to start the third quarter. Wood would face the same blitz packages as Kennedy, but Wood was just as interception prone as Kennedy. He was just as likely to complete passes to the wrong colored jersey as his own, and he would not disappoint Huff and his Redskins’ teammates.
However, on the Giants’ first possession of the third quarter, Wood directed the Giants on a scoring march. The Giants might have been inept on defense, but they still had some weapons. Receivers Homer Jones and Aaron Thomas were threats to score any time they caught the ball in the open field. Old-timer Joe Morrison still had the ability to find an overdrive gear and bust open a long play. Wood connected with Morrison, and the veteran took the ball the distance to cut the lead to 34-21. The Giants were still alive with more than a quarter to go.
I know what you are thinking. At this point, the game was midway through the third quarter, and the score was only 34-21. How in the world could the teams combine for 58 more points in the next quarter and a half? From this point on, it looked like an Arena Football game. It started with a quick touchdown drive led by Jurgensen to put the Redskins up 41-21. He finally connected with Taylor on a long scoring pass.
A few plays into the next drive, Wood threw a long bomb for a touchdown to Jones to cut the lead to 41-28. Not to be outdone, Jurgensen threw long to Taylor, and Taylor took it all the way for a 74-yard score to make it 48-28, as the third quarter came to a close.
The fourth quarter was just plain crazy. It started with New York having to punt from well inside their own territory. Rickie Harris, who led the NFL in punt returns as a rookie in 1965 was experiencing a sophomore slump, but he broke free for a touchdown on the return, as Washington stretched the lead to 55-28.
Rather quickly, Wood tossed a touchdown pass, but this time it was to the opposite colored jerseys. Owens intercepted his third pass of the day, and he scored on his second 60+ yard return to make it 62-28.
At this point, Sherman put Kennedy back in to face the relentless pressure. In what would be his one big highlight of the day, he quickly responded with a touchdown pass to Thomas to make it 62-34 when the PAT sailed wide.
At this point, Graham relieved Jurgensen for the rest of the day, placing backup Dick Shiner into the game. Shiner attempted one pass on the day, and it was intercepted, which led to the Giants scoring for the last time on this day to cut the lead to 62-41. Time was running out on this classic game, but there would be two more scores yet.
Down by three touchdowns, Sherman called for an onside kick, which failed. A couple of plays later, back Charlie Mitchell broke through the line on a quick trap and ran 45 yards for a touchdown. The score was now 69-41 in favor of the Redskins, the second highest amount ever scored in an NFL game.
The last score should not have happened. Kennedy tried to move the Giants quickly and was out of time outs. He thought he was clocking the ball on 3rd down to set up a 4th down pass for a first down, but instead, it was 4th down. When he threw the ball out of bounds (spiking was not legal then), the Redskins took over possession deep in Giants’ territory with less than 10 seconds remaining.
All Washington had to do was take a knee, and the game would be over. But, Sam Huff had other ideas this Sunday afternoon. He wasn’t pleased with just a 28-point when and 69 points. He hated Sherman so much that he called a timeout. He convinced Coach Graham to let kicker Charlie Gogolak try a field goal to put Washington over the 70-point mark, something that had only been done once before in regular season play and would be second most ever to when Chicago beat the Redskins 73-0 in the NFL Championship Game of 1945.
During the timeout, Huff was observed telling Sherman about his family heritage among other expletives. He wanted to goad the Giants into starting a fight, so he could go deck Sherman. Instead, Gogolak finished the game with a field goal to make the final score 72-41. Coach Graham stood up for Huff by stating that he wanted to give Gogolak some extra field goal practice, but Charlie had made nine PATs in this game and didn’t need any more practice.
The win moved Washington to 6-6 in the standings, and the Redskins would split their final two games to finish the season at 7-7, their only non-losing record in a 12-year span. Washington would not enjoy a winning season until 1969 when Vince Lombardi coached his last team prior to his death.
As for the Giants, the next week, they scored 40 points again, and for the only time in history a team lost consecutive games when they scored 40 or more points, as the Browns came from 20 points down to win 49-40. New York would finish the season 1-12-1, giving up 35.8 points per game and turning the ball over an amazing 44 times in 14 games. They would finally have a star quarterback the following year, when they traded for Fran Tarkenton from Minnesota, but the best Sherman could do with Tarkenton were consecutive 7-7 seasons in 1967 and 1968. It would take until 1981 for the Giants to make the playoffs again.
All times given are Eastern Standard Time
Saturday, January 6, 2018
4:20 PM on ESPN
Tennessee Titans (9-7-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-6-0)
PiRate: Kansas City by 8.1
Mean: Kansas City by 8.0
Bias: Kansas City by 8.7
Total: 45
Estimated Realistic Score: Kansas City 27 Tennessee 17
8:15 PM on NBC
Atlanta Falcons (10-6-0) at Los Angeles Rams (11-5-0)
PiRate: Los Angeles by 5.4
Mean: Los Angeles by 5.0
Bias: Los Angeles by 5.7
Total: 48
Estimated Realistic Score: Los Angeles 27 Atlanta 21
Sunday, January 7, 2018
1:05 PM on CBS
Buffalo Bills (9-7-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6-0)
PiRate: Jacksonville by 9.4
Mean: Jacksonville by 8.9
Bias: Jacksonville by 9.5
Total: 42
Estimated Realistic Score: Jacksonville 26 Buffalo 16
4:40 PM on Fox
Carolina Panthers (11-5-0) at New Orleans Saints (11-5-0)
PiRate: New Orleans by 5.8
Mean: New Orleans by 5.9
Bias: New Orleans by 6.0
Total: 53
Estimated Realistic Score: New Orleans 28 Carolina 24
This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads
| Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Totals |
| Oakland | Kansas City | -1.6 | -1.2 | -2.4 | 42 |
| Cleveland | Tennessee | -4.3 | -3.9 | -3.8 | 44 |
| Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -2.2 | -2.0 | -2.7 | 49 |
| Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | 7.2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 36 |
| Minnesota | Baltimore | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 36 |
| Miami | N. Y. Jets | 6.7 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 36 |
| Buffalo | Tampa Bay | 3.9 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 45 |
| Chicago | Carolina | -3.3 | -2.6 | -3.9 | 47 |
| Green Bay | New Orleans | 2.3 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 56 |
| LA Rams (London) | Arizona | -1.7 | -2.1 | -1.2 | 47 |
| San Franciso | Dallas | -6.5 | -6.4 | -6.2 | 51 |
| N. Y. Giants | Seattle | 1.9 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 34 |
| LA Chargers | Denver | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.5 | 43 |
| New England | Atlanta | 3.9 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 53 |
| Philadelphia | Washington | 6.7 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 49 |
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
| A F C | ||||||
| East | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| New England | 104.3 | 104.9 | 104.0 | 104.4 | 23 | 4-2-0 |
| Buffalo | 100.5 | 100.6 | 101.0 | 100.7 | 21 | 3-2-0 |
| Miami | 97.3 | 97.2 | 96.9 | 97.1 | 18 | 3-2-0 |
| N. Y. Jets | 93.6 | 93.2 | 93.8 | 93.6 | 18 | 3-3-0 |
| North | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Pittsburgh | 104.8 | 105.0 | 104.8 | 104.9 | 20 | 4-2-0 |
| Baltimore | 100.4 | 100.8 | 100.4 | 100.5 | 19 | 3-3-0 |
| Cincinnati | 100.1 | 100.5 | 100.2 | 100.3 | 16 | 2-3-0 |
| Cleveland | 91.1 | 91.6 | 91.2 | 91.3 | 19 | 0-6-0 |
| South | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Houston | 100.9 | 101.1 | 100.6 | 100.9 | 25 | 3-3-0 |
| Jacksonville | 98.4 | 98.6 | 98.2 | 98.4 | 24 | 3-3-0 |
| Tennessee | 98.4 | 98.4 | 98.0 | 98.3 | 25 | 3-3-0 |
| Indianapolis | 93.2 | 93.6 | 92.5 | 93.1 | 25 | 2-4-0 |
| West | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Kansas City | 105.0 | 105.3 | 105.3 | 105.2 | 21 | 5-1-0 |
| Denver | 102.0 | 101.6 | 102.1 | 101.9 | 19 | 3-2-0 |
| Oakland | 100.5 | 101.1 | 99.9 | 100.5 | 21 | 2-4-0 |
| LA Chargers | 99.6 | 99.2 | 99.6 | 99.5 | 24 | 2-4-0 |
| N F C | ||||||
| East | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Philadelphia | 104.8 | 103.7 | 105.7 | 104.7 | 23 | 5-1-0 |
| Dallas | 102.3 | 101.8 | 102.1 | 102.1 | 26 | 2-3-0 |
| N.Y. Giants | 101.2 | 101.1 | 101.1 | 101.2 | 15 | 1-5-0 |
| Washington | 100.0 | 99.8 | 100.3 | 100.0 | 26 | 3-2-0 |
| North | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Green Bay | 102.3 | 102.7 | 102.1 | 102.4 | 25 | 4-2-0 |
| Detroit | 101.2 | 101.7 | 101.1 | 101.4 | 25 | 3-3-0 |
| Minnesota | 100.0 | 100.3 | 100.0 | 100.1 | 17 | 4-2-0 |
| Chicago | 94.7 | 95.0 | 94.6 | 94.8 | 21 | 2-4-0 |
| South | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Atlanta | 103.3 | 103.3 | 103.4 | 103.3 | 30 | 3-2-0 |
| New Orleans | 103.0 | 102.1 | 103.5 | 102.9 | 31 | 3-2-0 |
| Carolina | 101.1 | 100.5 | 101.5 | 101.0 | 26 | 4-2-0 |
| Tampa Bay | 99.6 | 99.1 | 99.6 | 99.4 | 24 | 2-3-0 |
| West | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Seattle | 102.9 | 103.0 | 102.5 | 102.8 | 19 | 3-2-0 |
| Arizona | 97.5 | 97.5 | 97.3 | 97.4 | 25 | 3-3-0 |
| LA Rams | 95.7 | 95.4 | 96.1 | 95.7 | 22 | 4-2-0 |
| San Francisco | 93.3 | 93.0 | 93.4 | 93.2 | 25 | 0-6-0 |
This Week’s Playoff Projections
| AFC Seeding | |
| 1 | Kansas City |
| 2 | New England |
| 3 | Pittsburgh |
| 4 | Houston |
| 5 | Denver |
| 6 | Miami |
| NFC Seeding | |
| 1 | Philadelphia |
| 2 | Carolina |
| 3 | Los Angeles |
| 4 | Minnesota |
| 5 | Atlanta |
| 6 | Washington |
| Wildcard Round | |||
| Pittsburgh over Miami | |||
| Houston over Denver | |||
| Los Angeles over Washington | |||
| Atlanta over Minnesota | |||
| Divisional Round | |||
| Kansas City over Houston | |||
| Pittsburgh over New England | |||
| Philadelphia over Atlanta | |||
| Los Angeles over Carolina | |||
| Conference Championship | |||
| Kansas City over Pittsburgh | |||
| Philadelphia over Los Angeles | |||
| Super Bowl 52 | |||
| Philadelphia over Kansas City |
The Pi-Rate Ratings 