The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 3, 2013

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Wildcard Round: January 5-6, 2013

Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

 

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New York Giants

106.6

105.8

105.2

104.5

3.5

Washington Redskins

102.7

103.8

104.6

105.5

2.5

Dallas Cowboys

99.2

99.3

99.4

99.5

1

Philadelphia Eagles

91.7

90.8

90.2

89.5

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Green Bay Packers

106.5

106.5

106.5

106.5

3

Chicago Bears

104.7

103.2

102.2

101.0

2

Minnesota Vikings

101.6

102.2

102.6

103.0

2.5

Detroit Lions

96.1

95.1

94.3

93.5

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Atlanta Falcons

104.7

105.6

106.3

107.0

2.5

New Orleans Saints

100.7

100.2

99.9

99.5

3.5

Carolina Panthers

99.7

100.0

101.4

102.5

1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

98.6

97.6

96.8

96.0

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Seattle Seahawks

112.2

110.7

109.7

108.5

5

San Francisco 49ers

108.4

107.9

107.5

107.0

2.5

St. Louis Rams

98.6

98.6

98.5

98.5

1.5

Arizona Cardinals

95.0

94.6

94.3

94.0

3.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New England Patriots

112.7

111.2

110.2

109.0

1.5

Miami Dolphins

98.8

98.9

98.9

99.0

2.5

New York Jets

95.0

94.0

93.3

92.5

2

Buffalo Bills

94.6

94.2

93.9

93.5

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Cincinnati Bengals

103.5

103.7

103.8

104.0

2.5

Baltimore Ravens

102.5

102.9

103.2

103.5

5

Pittsburgh Steelers

100.0

100.8

101.4

102.0

2.5

Cleveland Browns

95.0

95.4

95.7

96.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Houston Texans

102.9

103.6

104.0

104.5

2.5

Indianapolis Colts

97.0

99.6

101.4

103.5

3.5

Tennessee Titans

92.6

93.2

93.6

94.0

3.5

Jacksonville Jaguars

90.5

90.5

90.5

90.5

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Denver Broncos

111.0

110.6

110.3

110.0

3

San Diego Chargers

98.4

99.1

99.5

100.0

1.5

Oakland Raiders

90.9

92.2

93.0

94.0

3.5

Kansas City Chiefs

87.6

87.8

87.9

88.0

3.5

 

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

 

Saturday, January 5, 2013

 

Cincinnati Bengals (10-6-0) at Houston Texans (12-4-0)

Time: 4:30 PM EST

TV: NBC

Reliant Stadium Forecast: With rain in the forecast, the dome will be closed

 

PiRate: Houston by 1.9

PiRate Mean: Houston by 2.4

PiRate Bias: Houston by 2.7

PiRate Vintage: Houston by 3.0

 

Vegas Line: Houston by 4 ½

Totals: 43 ½

Money Line:  Houston -220  Cincinnati +180

 

100 Computer Simulations: Houston 56  Cincinnati 44

Average Score: Houston 24.2  Cincinnati 16.6

Standard Deviation: 7.7

Outlier Home: Houston 45  Cincinnati 14

Outlier Visitor: Cincinnati 26  Houston 10

Outlier High: 62 points

Outlier Low: 27 points

 

PiRate Captain Says: Houston -4 ½  and  Under 43 ½  and Houston -220

 

 

Minnesota Vikings (10-6-0) at Green Bay Packers (11-5-0)

Time: 8:00 PM EST

TV: NBC

Lambeau Field Forecast: Cloudy, Temperature holding steady around 22 degrees

 

PiRate: Green Bay by 7.9

PiRate Mean: Green Bay by 7.3

PiRate Bias: Green Bay by 6.9

PiRate Vintage: Green Bay by 6.5

 

Vegas Line:  Green Bay by 7 ½

Totals: 46

Money Line:  Green Bay -400  Minnesota +330

 

100 Computer Simulations: Green Bay 78  Minnesota 22

Average Score: Green Bay 29.0  Minnesota 18.1

Standard Deviation: 8.0

Outlier Home: Green Bay 44 Minnesota 17

Outlier Visitor: Minnesota 27  Green Bay 17

Outlier High: 65 points

Outlier Low: 23 points

 

PiRate Captain Says: No Sides or Totals selections look good

Condition of Chris Ponder’s throwing elbow can affect this game too much

See Money Line Parlay below in following game

 

Sunday, Janurary 6, 2013

 

Indianapolis Colts (11-5-0) at Baltimore Ravens (10-6-0)

Time: 1:00 PM EST

TV: CBS

M&T Bank Stadium Forecast: Partly Sunny, Temperature in low 40’s

 

PiRate: Baltimore by 9.5

PiRate Mean: Baltimore by 7.3

PiRate Bias: Baltimore by 5.8

PiRate Vintage: Baltimore by 4.0

 

Vegas Line: Baltimore by 7

Totals: 47

Money Line:  Baltimore -320  Indianapolis +260

 

100 Computer Simulations: Baltimore 81  Indianapolis 19

Average Score: Baltimore 24.1  Cincinnati 15.6

Standard Deviation: 9.1

Outlier Home: Baltimore 35  Indianapolis 7

Outlier Visitor: Indianapolis 23  Baltimore 13

Outlier High: 59 points

Outlier Low: 23 points

 

PiRate Captain Says: Under 47 and Baltimore with Green Bay in Money Line parlay at -156

 

 

Seattle Seahawks (11-5-0) at Washington Redskins (10-6-0)

Time: 4:30 PM EST

TV: Fox

Fedex Field Forecast: Partly Cloudy, Temperature in low 40’s falling to the upper 30’s

 

PiRate: Seattle by 6.5

PiRate Mean: Seattle by 3.9

PiRate Bias: Seattle by 2.1

PiRate Vintage: Even

 

Vegas Line: Seattle by 3

Totals: 46

Money Line:  Seattle -150  Washington +130

 

100 Computer Simulations: Seattle 53  Washington 47

Average Score: Seattle 29.5  Washington 23.4

Standard Deviation: 14.5

Outlier Home: Washington 41  Seattle 21

Outlier Visitor:  Seattle 51  Washington 17

Outlier High: 79 points

Outlier Low: 39 points

 

PiRate Captain Says: Over 46 (Weather will be no factor, and this game should be an exciting offensive showcase for the two rookie phenoms)

 

10- point Teaser for Wildcard Round

Cincinnati +14 ½

Baltimore + 3

Seattle +7

 

13-point Teaser for Wildcard Round

Houston & Cincinnati Over 30 ½

Minnesota +20 ½ vs. Green Bay

Minnesota & Green Bay Over 33

Seattle & Washington Over 33

January 31, 2012

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Super Bowl 46–February 5, 2012

Super Bowl 46 Preview

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

Vegas Line as of Tuesday, January 31, 2012  @ 3:00 PM EST      
 

Favorite

Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

New England New York Giants

1.4

2.2

-0.4

3   

55 1/2

 

Computer Simulations

 

100 Simulations: New England 53  New York Giants 47

Avg. Sim Score: New England 21.2  New York Giants 20.9  (42.1 total points)

Vs. Spread: New York Giants 57  New England 37  (6 Pushes)

Outlier Score A: New England 34  New York Giants 12

Outlier Score B: New York Giants 27  New England 10

 

We here at the PiRate Ratings hope you have enjoyed our football coverage for 2011-12.  We will return in August with our preseason College Football ratings for 2012.

 

Until then, we will devote this page to coverage of the NCAA Basketball tournament.  We began last Friday with a look at the low-major conferences.  This Friday, we will analyze the mid-major conferences.

 

After the field of 68 has been revealed, we will show in detail how we use “Bracketnomics” as a scientific way of picking winners, using a backtested model.  It has been very successful since its inception, although it did strike out in 2011 after picking the dark horse champion (the Tuesday after Selection Sunday) in 2010.

January 18, 2012

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Conference Championship Round–January 22, 2012

This preview comes out a day late this week due to the unavailability of access to the simulator until Wednesday at lunchtime.  Better late than never.

 

Conference Championship Previews

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

 

Home Team in CAPS

 

 

 

 

 

Conference Championships:

 

 

 

 

 

Vegas Line as of Wednesday, January 18, 2012  @ 5:00 PM EST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

NEW ENGLAND Baltimore

10.1

9.9

6.5

7   

50 1/2

SAN FRANCISCO New York Giants

1.7

4.1

0.2

2 1/2

42    

 

 

Computer Simulations

 

Sunday, January 22, 2012

3PM EST

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

 

100 Simulations: New England 63  Baltimore 37

Avg. Sim Score: New England 26.5  Baltimore 19.7  (46.2 total points)

Vs. Spread: New England 48  Baltimore 47  Push 5

Outlier Score A: New England 38  Baltimore 13

Outlier Score B: Baltimore 24  New England 12

 

6:30 PM EST

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers

 

100 Simulations: New York Giants 53  San Francisco 47

Avg. Sim Score: New York Giants 23.6  San Francisco 20.9 (44.5 points)

Vs. Spread: New York Giants 82  San Francisco 18

Outlier Score A: New York Giants 37  San Francisco 14

Outlier Score B: San Francisco 27  New York Giants 9

 Note: The PiRate Ratings will begin its NCAA Basketball coverage next week.

January 10, 2012

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Divisional Playoff Round–January 14-15, 2012

NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round

Current NFL Standings For Remaining Playoff Teams

 

Team                                 PiRate  Mean    Biased HFA

New York Giants                  105.2      103.8      104.2      2.0

Green Bay Packers             111.5      111.0      110.8      3.5

New Orleans Saints            113.8      111.5      106.7      5.0

San Francisco 49ers          105.9      105.9      104.9      3.5

New England Patriots        110.5      109.7      108.5      2.0

Baltimore Ravens               105.4     105.6       107.0     4.0

Houston Texans                  100.8     100.9       103.3     1.5

Denver Broncos                     95.0     94.7        98.3       1.5

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads

Home Team in CAPS

 

 

 

 

 

Divisional Playoff Round:

 

 

 

 

 

Vegas Line as of Tuesday, January 10, 2012 @ 12 Noon EST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

New Orleans SAN FRANCISCO

4.4

2.1

-1.7

3 1/2

47 1/2

NEW ENGLAND Denver

17.5

17.0

12.2

13 1/2

50 1/2

BALTIMORE Houston

8.6

8.7

7.7

7 1/2

35 1/2

GREEN BAY New York Giants

9.8

10.7

10.1

7 1/2

52 1/2

 

 

100 Simulations of Each Game

New Orleans at San Francisco

 

Simulation Wins

New Orleans 62

San Francisco 38

 

Average Sim Score

New Orleans 25.6

San Francisco 22.7

 

Beat Spread (NO -3 ½)

New Orleans 31

San Francisco 69

 

Biggest Win

New Orleans 29 (42-13)

San Francisco 16 (37-21)

 

 

Denver at New England

Simulation Wins

New England 97

Denver 3

 

Average Sim Score

New England 30.3

Denver 11.4

 

Beat Spread (NE -13 ½)

New England 48

Denver 52

 

Biggest Win

New England 41 (51-10)

Denver 6 (20-14)

 

 

Houston at Baltimore

Simulation Wins

Baltimore 58

Houston 42

 

Average Sim Score

Baltimore 23.7

Houston 19.4

 

Beat Spread (Bal -7 ½)

Baltimore 33

Houston 67

 

Biggest Win

Baltimore 25 (35-10)

Houston 19 (26-7)

 

 

New York Giants at Green Bay

Simulation Wins

Green Bay 83

New York Giants 17

 

Average Sim Score

Green Bay 34.9

New York Giants 26.2

 

Beat Spread (GB -7 ½)

Green Bay 52

New York Giants 48

 

Biggest Win

Green Bay 23 (41-18)

New York Giants 11 (38-27)

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