2013 NFC North Division Preview

2013 N F C North Preview

The Old Black and Blue Division, it isn’t.  What once was a quartet known for punishing power running to set up play-action and long passes on offense going up against punishing defenders like Alan Page, Dick Butkus, Ray Nitschke, and Alex Karras, has become the air it out division.  Well, at least three of the teams in the division believe in pass first, pass second, pass, pass, pass.  When you have Adrian Peterson in your backfield, you run the ball about half the time.

 

Last year, the Detroit Lions scored 372 points; that was the worst offensive production in the division.  The Lions won only four games scoring 372 or 23.3 points per game.  In 1991, the year the Lions advanced to the NFC Championship Game, they only scored 339 points.  They averaged more than two points less per game when they last won the NFL Championship in 1958.

 

A return to the old plodding northern football of yesteryear is not on the horizon.  Expect the North to produce a lot of offense and average defense.  One team is liable to score more than 425 points, and that team should win the division.  However, it would not surprise us if all four teams were still alive in the division race after Thanksgiving.  This could be a season where after 12 games, there is one 7-5 team, two 6-6 teams, and one 5-7 team.

 

Green Bay is the obvious choice to repeat as division titlist.  The Packers have topped 400 points scored five out of the last six years, and they have made the playoffs in four of those five seasons.  The Packers have filled a cavity in recent years by drafting Eddie Lacy from Alabama.  Lacy should carry the ball about 15 times a game this year, and we expect him to take some of the heat off the passing game.  Look for Lacy to threaten the 1,000 yard mark, but if he averages four yards per attempt, he will do his job.

 

Aaron Rodgers is the best passer in the game in 2013.  As long as he stays healthy, the Packers will move the ball and score points on any defense.  He has one less familiar receiver in the lineup, as the team let Greg Jennings go, but this could be an addition by subtraction this season.  Wideouts Randall Cobb, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson and tight end Jermichael Finley make up the top receiving corps in the NFC (not too far behind the group in Denver).  Add a very talented offensive line, and it is hard to see any team, and only inclement weather, holding a healthy Packers’ team under 21 points in a game.

 

Chicago and Minnesota both finished one game behind the Packers last year, with the Vikings earning a wildcard berth.  Both teams have a lot of talent on hand, but we see some liabilities in both that we believe will keep them behind Green Bay.

 

Chicago is talented enough at the skill positions to win 12 or 13 games, but the Bears’ offensive line has been more like a 12-game loser.  This year, the blocking corps figures to take a decided leap forward thanks to some help in the draft class, but we believe the team still needs at least one more new lineman before Jay Cutler can relax in the pocket.  Additionally, new head coach Mark Trestman brings an entirely new offensive philosophy, and we expect some transitioning early in the season, possibly costing the Bears a game or two.  Give Trestman time, and he will turn the Bears into the Raiders of 2002, where he directed the offense.  Trestman won multiple Grey Cups with Montreal in the CFL, much like Bud Grant once did before guiding Minnesota to four Super Bowls.

 

Speaking of the Vikings, if Christian Ponder can advance this year as much as he did last year, the purple and white might challenge for a second consecutive playoff spot.  However, we cannot see Peterson running for anything close to the 2,097 yards he gained last year.  He might pick up just 1,500 this year, and we don’t see that extra 600 yards being picked up by the passing game.  Thus, we believe the Vikings will fall back this season and possibly have to fight to avoid the cellar.

 

Detroit started the year 4-4 and then lost its final eight games last year.  This team is scary on the offensive side, but the defense scares only people rooting for the team.  We expect some improvement on the stop side, and the offense could be even better this year.  Matthew Stafford could easily top 5,000 passing yards this year, as he barely missed that mark last year.  He still has Calvin Johnson, who almost topped 2,000 receiving yards last year.  Now, he has one of the best pass-catching running backs in Reggie Bush.  Bush could top 800 yards on the ground and catch 50 passes for another 400 yards, and if so, the 2013 Lions could be as potent as the 2009 Saints.  Still, it might take 400-430 points just to break even on the won-loss ledger.

 

We have added a new wrinkle to our coverage this year.  In the past, friends of ours have asked us if we knew how to recreate the exact colors of their favorite team so that they could print those colors on their computer.  We have found this information from multiple sites in the last couple of months, and we are going to show you the RGB numbers so you can replicate those colors.  These can be used in graphics programs, but it can easily be used in MS-Word and MS-Excel.

 

Here are the official colors for the AFC North.

North	Color	Red	Green	Blue
Chicago Bears	Navy	3	30	47
	Orange	221	72	20
	White	255	255	255
Detroit Lions	Honolulu Blue	42	110	187
	Metallic Silver	133	136	139
	White	255	255	255
Green Bay Packers	Dark Green	44	94	79
	Gold	255	182	18
	White	255	255	255
Minnesota Vikings	Purple	75	48	106
	Gold	255	182	18
	White	255	255	255

 

 

2012 Final Standings & PiRate Ratings

NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp Green Bay Packers 106.5 106.5 106.5 11-5-0 433 336 Chicago Bears 104.7 103.2 102.2 10-6-0 375 277 Minnesota Vikings 101.6 102.2 102.6 10-6-0 379 348 Detroit Lions 96.1 95.1 94.3 4-12-0 372 437

 

2013 Preseason PiRate Ratings

North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay Packers	106.1	104.9	105.7
Chicago Bears	101.5	102.1	101.6
Minnesota Vikings	99.5	99.9	98.3
Detroit Lions	98.4	98.9	98.5

 

PiRate Previews

Team	Chicago Bears
Head Coach	Mark Trestman
O-Coord.	Aaron Kromer
D-Coord.	Mel Tucker
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Jay Cutler
Running Back	Matt Forte
Fullback	Tony Fiammetta
Wide Receiver	Brandon Marshall
Wide Receiver	Alshon Jeffery
Tight End	Martellus Bennett
Left Tackle	Jermon Bushrod
Left Guard	Matt Slauson
Center	Roberto Garza
Right Guard	Kyle Long
Right Tackle	J’Marcus Webb
	Defense
Left End	Corey Wootten
Left Tackle	Henry Melton
Nose Tackle	Stephen Paea
Right End	Julius Peppers
Sam LB	James Anderson
Mike LB	D. J. Williams
Will LB	Lance Briggs
Left CB	Tim Jennings
Right CB	Charles Tillman
Strong Safety	Major Wright
Free Safety	Chris Conte
	Special Teams
Kicker	Robbie Gould
Punter	Adam Podlesh
K-Return	Devin Hester
P-Return	Devin Hester
Predictions
Record	9-7
Division	2nd

 

Team	Detroit Lions
Head Coach	Jim Schwartz
O-Coord.	Scott Linehan
D-Coord.	Gunther Cunningham
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Matthew Stafford
Running Back	Reggie Bush
Wide Receiver	Calvin Johnson
Wide Receiver	Nate Burleson
Tight End	Brandon Pettigrew
Tight End	Tony Scheffler
Left Tackle	Riley Reiff
Left Guard	Rob Sims
Center	Dominic Raiola
Right Guard	Dylan Gandy
Right Tackle	Jason Fox
	Defense
Left End	Jason Jones
Left Tackle	Nick Fairley
Right Tackle	Ndamukong Suh
Right End	Ziggy Ansah
Sam LB	Ashlee Palmer
Mike LB	Stephen Tulloch
Will LB	DeAndre Levy
Left CB	Chris Houston
Right CB	Ronald Bartell
Strong Safety	Glover Quin
Free Safety	Louis Delmas
	Special Teams
Kicker	David Akers
Punter	Sam Martin
K-Return	Micheal Spurlock
P-Return	Micheal Spurlock
Predictions
Record	6-10
Division	4th

 

Team	Green Bay Packers
Head Coach	Mike McCarthy
O-Coord.	Tom Clements
D-Coord.	Dom Capers
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Aaron Rodgers
Running Back	Alex Green/Eddie Lacy
Fullback	John Kuhn
Wide Receiver	Jordy Nelson
Wide Receiver	Randall Cobb
Tight End	Jermichael Finley
Left Tackle	David Bakhtari
Left Guard	Josh Sitton
Center	Evan Dietrich-Smith
Right Guard	T. J. Lang
Right Tackle	Marshall Newhouse
	Defense
Left End	Datone Jones
Nose Tackle	Ryan Pickett
Right End	B. J. Raji
Left OLB	Nick Perry
Left ILB	A. J. Hawk
Right ILB	Brad Jones
Right OLB	Clay Matthews
Left CB	Tramon Williams
Right CB	Sam Shields
Strong Safety	M. D. Jennings
Free Safety	Morgan Burnett
	Special Teams
Kicker	Mason Crosby
Punter	Tim Masthay
K-Return	Randall Cobb
P-Return	Randall Cobb
Predictions
Record	11-5
Division	1st

 

Team	Minnesota Vikings
Head Coach	Leslie Frazier
O-Coord.	Bill Musgrave
D-Coord.	Alan Williams
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Christian Ponder
Running Back	Adrian Peterson
Fullback	Jerome Felton
Wide Receiver	Greg Jennings
Wide Receiver	Jerome Simpson
Tight End	Kyle Rudolph
Left Tackle	Matt Kalil
Left Guard	Charlie Johnson
Center	John Sullivan
Right Guard	Brandon Fusco
Right Tackle	Phil Loadholt
	Defense
Left End	Brian Robison
Nose Tackle	Letroy Guion
Right Tackle	Kevin Williams
Right End	Jared Allen
Sam LB	Chad Greenway
Mike LB	Erin Henderson
Will LB	Marvin Mitchell
Left CB	Josh Robinson
Right CB	Chris Cook
Strong Safety	Jamarca Sanford
Free Safety	Harrison Smith
	Special Teams
Kicker	Blair Walsh
Punter	Jeff Locke
K-Return	Cordarrelle Patterson
P-Return	Marcus Sherels
Predictions
Record	8-8
Division	3rd