Somehow, we left the last game of Week 3 on our weekly spreads. Since there’s still more than 48 hours until kickoff, and it’s a big rivalry game with an all of a sudden first place New York Giants team, here are the spreads for that game.
| Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
| N.Y. Giants | Dallas | -8.0 | -5.5 | -7.0 |
| Home | Visitor | Total | ||
| N.Y. Giants | Dallas | 42.5 |
2014–Dallas Cowboys
2013–Philadelphia Eagles
2012–Washington Redskins
2011–New York Giants
The NFC East is the only division where all four teams have won a division title in the last four years. Three of the four have legitimate shots to win it in 2015, not because they are all great. This division could easily go to a 9-7 team, and it would not surprise us one bit if three teams go 9-7.
Dallas lost in the second round of the playoffs to Green Bay in Lambeau Field at the end of the game last year. If you are over 55, you can remember when this happened the first go around. That happened in 1967, and then in 1968, Dallas had what many believe to be their best team ever, but the Cowboys were blown out in the first round of the playoffs to the Browns and did not make it to the Super Bowl for two more years after that. History could repeat itself this year. The Cowboys could get back to the playoffs and lose in the first game, because their offense figures to be too one dimensional. Tony Romo had some pressure taken off having the top runner in the league last year, but now he has an unproven Joseph Randle or an over-the-hill Darren McFadden in the backfield. The Cowboys’ defense is still top-rate, but we do not expect Dallas to score 467 points again this year.
New York Giants coach Tom Coughlin may be at the end of the line. The Giants went 6-10 last year, and it may take a record reversal to save Coughlin’s job. Eli Manning to Odell Beckham became a big deal every Sunday in 2014, and with Reuben Randle on the other side, the Giants might move the ball through the air like nobody else in the NFC. The running game will not shine, but with Rashad Jennings and Andre Jennings returning and adding Shane Vereen to the roster, the Giants will convert short yardage situations into first downs well enough to maintain possession of the ball. A weak front seven, something Coughlin’s best teams always had, may be the liability that keeps New York from getting back to the top of the division.
Philadelphia made a lot of changes in the off-season sending starting quarterback Nick Foles to the Rams for Sam Bradford and then continuing with the acquisition of DeMarco Murray, he of the 1,845 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns for Dallas last year. But, then the Eagles continued to change personnel like a team bent on starting over from scratch. Stars Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, and Trent Cole departed. Nate Allen, Bradley Fisher, Cary Williams, and Casey Matthews joine Cole to create five new starters on defense. It will be an interesting season in the City of Brotherly Boos, and we think the Eagles will get their share from the hometown fans when they figure to come up short once again.
The Jay Gruden era in the nation’s capital may last just two years, or even less if the Washington Redskins don’t improve at the start of the 2015 season. The schedule actually helps the Redskins this season, as the first seven games prior to their bye week give them chances to win four or five times. After the bye, wins may be hard to come by. Robert Griffin III begins the regular season recuperating from a concussion, and Alfred Morris is still around. The defense figures to be a little better with the addition of Dashon Goldson, but the Redskins figure to be looking up at the other three teams in the division.
DALLAS COWBOYS
| Cowboys Starting Lineup | |
| Offense | |
| WR | Dez Bryant |
| WR | Terrance Williams |
| WR | Cole Beasely |
| TE | Jason Whitten |
| LT | Tyron Smith |
| LG | Ronald Leary |
| C | Travis Frederick |
| RG | Zach Martin |
| RT | Doug Free |
| QB | Tony Romo |
| HB | Joseph Randle |
| FB | Tyler Clutts |
| Defense | |
| DE | DeMarcus Lawrence |
| NT | Nick Hayden |
| DT | Tyrone Crawford |
| DE | Jeremy Mincey/Greg Hardy |
| LB | Kyle Wilber |
| LB | Anthony Hitchens |
| LB | Sean Lee |
| CB | Brandon Carr |
| S | J. J. Wilcox |
| S | Barry Church |
| CB | Morris Claiborne |
| N5 | Byron Jones |
| Special | |
| Kicker | Dan Bailey |
| Punter | Chris Jones |
| KR | Lance Dunbar |
| PR | Cole Beasely |
| Dallas Cowboys | |
| Head Coach | Jason Garrett |
| Off. Coordinator | Scott Linehan |
| Def. Coordinator | Rod Marinelli |
| 2014 W-L-T | 12-4-0 |
| Pts | 29.2 |
| Opp | 22.0 |
| Ratings | |
| PiRate | 106.9 |
| Mean | 105.6 |
| Bias | 107.6 |
| Average | 106.7 |
| Grades | |
| Running | C- |
| Passing | A+ |
| Vs. Run | C |
| Vs. Pass | C- |
| Special Teams | B |
| Coaching + Intangibles | B |
| Predicted W-L | 9-7-0 |
| Division Rank | 1 |
| Conference Rank | 3 |
| Overall Rank | 5 |
| Postseason | Yes |
NEW YORK GIANTS
| Giants Starting Lineup | |
| Offense | |
| WR | Odell Beckham, Jr. |
| WR | Rueben Randle |
| WR | Victor Cruz |
| TE | Larry Donnell |
| LT | Ereck Flowers |
| LG | Justin Pugh |
| C | Weston Richburg |
| RG | Geoff Schwartz |
| RT | Marshall Newhouse |
| QB | Eli Manning |
| HB | Rashad Jennings |
| FB | Henry Hynoski |
| New York Giants | |
| Head Coach | Tom Coughlin |
| Off. Coordinator | Ben McAdoo |
| Def. Coordinator | Steve Spagnolo |
| 2014 W-L-T | 6-10-0 |
| Pts | 23.8 |
| Opp | 25.0 |
| Ratings | |
| PiRate | 99.9 |
| Mean | 99.7 |
| Bias | 100.4 |
| Average | 100.0 |
| Grades | |
| Running | C |
| Passing | A- |
| Vs. Run | C- |
| Vs. Pass | C |
| Special Teams | A |
| Coaching + Intangibles | A- |
| Predicted W-L | 9-7-0 |
| Division Rank | 3 |
| Conference Rank | 8 |
| Overall Rank | 16 |
| Postseason | No |
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
| Eagles Starting Lineup | |
| Offense | |
| WR | Jordan Matthews |
| WR | Nelson Agholor |
| WR | Riley Cooper |
| TE | Zach Ertz |
| LT | Jason Peters |
| LG | Allen Barbre |
| C | Jason Kelce |
| RG | Andrew Gardner |
| RT | Lane Johnson |
| QB | Sam Bradford |
| HB | DeMarco Murray |
| FB | (NONE) |
| Defense | |
| DE | Fletcher Cox |
| DT | Bennie Logan |
| DE | Cedric Thornton |
| LB | Connor Barwin |
| LB | Mychal Kendricks |
| LB | Kiko Alonso |
| LB | Brandon Graham |
| CB | Nolan Carroll |
| S | Malcolm Jenkins |
| S | Walter Thurmond |
| CB | Byron Maxwell |
| N5 | Eric Rowe |
| Special | |
| Kicker | Cody Parkey |
| Punter | Donnie Jones |
| KR | Josh Huff |
| PR | Darren Sproles |
| Philadelphia Eagles | |
| Head Coach | Chip Kelly |
| Off. Coordinator | Pat Shurmur |
| Def. Coordinator | Bill Davis |
| 2014 W-L-T | 10-6-0 |
| Pts | 29.7 |
| Opp | 25.0 |
| Ratings | |
| PiRate | 104.7 |
| Mean | 103.9 |
| Bias | 105.2 |
| Average | 104.6 |
| Grades | |
| Running | A |
| Passing | B |
| Vs. Run | A |
| Vs. Pass | C |
| Special Teams | A |
| Coaching + Intangibles | B+ |
| Predicted W-L | 9-7-0 |
| Division Rank | 2 |
| Conference Rank | 4 |
| Overall Rank | 8 |
| Postseason | Yes |
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
| Redskins Starting Lineup | |
| Offense | |
| WR | DeSean Jackson |
| WR | Pierre Garcon |
| WR | Andre Roberts |
| TE | Jordan Reed |
| LT | Trent Williams |
| LG | Shawn Lauvao |
| C | Kory Lichtensteiger |
| RG | Brandon Scherff |
| RT | Morgan Moses |
| QB | Robert Griffin III |
| HB | Alfred Morris |
| FB | Darrel Young |
| Defense | |
| DE | Stephen Paea |
| NT | Terrance Knighton |
| DE | Jason Hatcher |
| LB | Ryan Kerrigan |
| LB | Keenan Robinson |
| LB | Perry Riley |
| LB | Trent Murphy |
| CB | DeAngelo Hall |
| S | Duke Ihenacho |
| S | Dashon Golden |
| CB | Chris Culliver |
| N5 | Bashaud Breeland |
| Special | |
| Kicker | Kai Forbath |
| Punter | Tress Way |
| KR | Andre Roberts |
| PR | Andre Roberts |
| Washington Redskins | |
| Head Coach | Jay Gruden |
| Off. Coordinator | Sean McVay |
| Def. Coordinator | Joe Barry |
| 2014 W-L-T | 4-12-0 |
| Pts | 18.8 |
| Opp | 27.4 |
| Ratings | |
| PiRate | 93.2 |
| Mean | 92.1 |
| Bias | 92.5 |
| Average | 92.6 |
| Grades | |
| Running | C+ |
| Passing | C- |
| Vs. Run | C |
| Vs. Pass | C |
| Special Teams | C |
| Coaching + Intangibles | D |
| Predicted W-L | 6-10-0 |
| Division Rank | 4 |
| Conference Rank | 15 |
| Overall Rank | 29 |
| Postseason | No |
The four NFL Wildcard Round Playoff Games were placed in the computer simulator this morning, and the results are posted below. Each game was simulated 100 times.
What you will see below are the following results:
1. How many of the 100 simulations each team won
2. The Average score of the 100 simulations for each team
3. The number or times out of 100 each simulation covered the spread for the teams (with the number of pushes as well)
4. The largest outlier score for each team
The PiRate Ratings will not endorse wagering on these games based on this data. It is experimental, and although the simulator has been accurate in the past in picking winners, it has been about 55% accurate against the spread, which is not worthy of using as an investment tool. For any tool to be worthwhile in picking games against the spread, it must top 57.4%, which is 5% above the break-even mark.
Saturday, July 7, 2012
4:30 PM EST (NBC)—Cincinnati Bengals 9-7-0 at Houston Texans 10-6-0
Vegas Line: Houston by 3
Totals: 38
100 Simulations
Cincinnati 54 Houston 46
Average Simulation Score
Cincinnati 16.8 Houston 14.4 31.2 total points
Covered Spread
Cincinnati 71
Houston 24
Push 5
Outlier Scores
Cincinnati 34 Houston 10
Houston 24 Cincinnati 6
Saturday, January 7, 2012
8:00 PM EST (NBC)–Detroit Lions 10-6-0 at New Orleans Saints 13-3-0
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 10 ½
Totals: 58
100 Simulations
New Orleans 81 Detroit 19
Average Simulation Score
New Orleans 32.6 Detroit 23.1 55.7 total points
Covered Spread
Detroit 54
New Orleans 46
Outlier Scores
New Orleans 48 Detroit 17 & New Orleans 45 Detroit 14
Detroit 38 New Orleans 27
Sunday, January 8, 2012
1:00 PM EST (FOX)—Atlanta Falcons 10-6-0 at New York Giants 9-7-0
Vegas Line: New York Giants by 3
Totals: 47 ½
100 Simulations
New York Giants 53 Atlanta 47
Average Simulation Score
New York Giants 26.7 Atlanta 23.8 50.5 total points
Covered Spread
Atlanta 47
New York Giants 46
Push 7
Outlier Scores
New York Giants 38 Atlanta 14
Atlanta 35 New York Giants 13
Sunday, July 8, 2012
4:30 PM EST (CBS)—Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4-0 at Denver Broncos 8-8-0
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 8
Totals: 34 ½
100 Simulations
Pittsburgh 92 Denver 8
Average Simulation Score
Pittsburgh 25.3 Denver 8.7 34.0 total points
Covered Spread
Pittsburgh 79
Denver 18
Push 3
Outlier Scores
Pittsburgh 41 Denver 10
Denver 16 Pittsburgh 10
Reminder: Check back Friday morning for the results of our simulated NCAA Playoffs—Simper Bowl V.
Check back Friday afternoon for the results of 100 simulations of the BCS National Championship Game.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 