The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 24, 2022

PiRate Ratings–NFL addendum

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:29 am

Because somehow we left off the MNF Game–Sorry Folks!

Somehow, we left the last game of Week 3 on our weekly spreads. Since there’s still more than 48 hours until kickoff, and it’s a big rivalry game with an all of a sudden first place New York Giants team, here are the spreads for that game.

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
N.Y. GiantsDallas-8.0-5.5-7.0
HomeVisitorTotal
N.Y. GiantsDallas42.5

August 29, 2015

2015 NFC East Preview

2014–Dallas Cowboys

2013–Philadelphia Eagles

2012–Washington Redskins

2011–New York Giants

The NFC East is the only division where all four teams have won a division title in the last four years.  Three of the four have legitimate shots to win it in 2015, not because they are all great.  This division could easily go to a 9-7 team, and it would not surprise us one bit if three teams go 9-7.

Dallas lost in the second round of the playoffs to Green Bay in Lambeau Field at the end of the game last year.  If you are over 55, you can remember when this happened the first go around.  That happened in 1967, and then in 1968, Dallas had what many believe to be their best team ever, but the Cowboys were blown out in the first round of the playoffs to the Browns and did not make it to the Super Bowl for two more years after that.  History could repeat itself this year.  The Cowboys could get back to the playoffs and lose in the first game, because their offense figures to be too one dimensional.  Tony Romo had some pressure taken off having the top runner in the league last year, but now he has an unproven Joseph Randle or an over-the-hill Darren McFadden in the backfield.  The Cowboys’ defense is still top-rate, but we do not expect Dallas to score 467 points again this year.

 

New York Giants coach Tom Coughlin may be at the end of the line.  The Giants went 6-10 last year, and it may take a record reversal to save Coughlin’s job.  Eli Manning to Odell Beckham became a big deal every Sunday in 2014, and with Reuben Randle on the other side, the Giants might move the ball through the air like nobody else in the NFC.  The running game will not shine, but with Rashad Jennings and Andre Jennings returning and adding Shane Vereen to the roster, the Giants will convert short yardage situations into first downs well enough to maintain possession of the ball.  A weak front seven, something Coughlin’s best teams always had, may be the liability that keeps New York from getting back to the top of the division.

 

Philadelphia made a lot of changes in the off-season sending starting quarterback Nick Foles to the Rams for Sam Bradford and then continuing with the acquisition of DeMarco Murray, he of the 1,845 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns for Dallas last year.  But, then the Eagles continued to change personnel like a team bent on starting over from scratch.  Stars Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, and Trent Cole departed.   Nate Allen, Bradley Fisher, Cary Williams, and Casey Matthews joine Cole to create five new starters on defense.  It will be an interesting season in the City of Brotherly Boos, and we think the Eagles will get their share from the hometown fans when they figure to come up short once again.

 

The Jay Gruden era in the nation’s capital may last just two years, or even less if the Washington Redskins don’t improve at the start of the 2015 season.  The schedule actually helps the Redskins this season, as the first seven games prior to their bye week give them chances to win four or five times.  After the bye, wins may be hard to come by.  Robert Griffin III begins the regular season recuperating from a concussion, and Alfred Morris is still around.  The defense figures to be a little better with the addition of Dashon Goldson, but the Redskins figure to be looking up at the other three teams in the division.

 

DALLAS COWBOYS

Cowboys Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Dez Bryant
WR Terrance Williams
WR Cole Beasely
TE Jason Whitten
LT Tyron Smith
LG Ronald Leary
C Travis Frederick
RG Zach Martin
RT Doug Free
QB Tony Romo
HB Joseph Randle
FB Tyler Clutts
   
Defense
DE DeMarcus Lawrence
NT Nick Hayden
DT Tyrone Crawford
DE Jeremy Mincey/Greg Hardy
LB Kyle Wilber
LB Anthony Hitchens
LB Sean Lee
CB Brandon Carr
S J. J. Wilcox
S Barry Church
CB Morris Claiborne
N5 Byron Jones
   
Special
Kicker Dan Bailey
Punter Chris Jones
KR Lance Dunbar
PR Cole Beasely
Dallas Cowboys
Head Coach Jason Garrett
Off. Coordinator Scott Linehan
Def. Coordinator Rod Marinelli
2014 W-L-T 12-4-0
Pts 29.2
Opp 22.0
   
Ratings  
PiRate 106.9
Mean 105.6
Bias 107.6
Average 106.7
   
Grades  
Running C-
Passing A+
Vs. Run C
Vs. Pass C-
Special Teams B
Coaching + Intangibles B
   
Predicted W-L 9-7-0
Division Rank 1
Conference Rank 3
Overall Rank 5
Postseason Yes

 

NEW YORK GIANTS

Giants Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Odell Beckham, Jr.
WR Rueben Randle
WR Victor Cruz
TE Larry Donnell
LT Ereck Flowers
LG Justin Pugh
C Weston Richburg
RG Geoff Schwartz
RT Marshall Newhouse
QB Eli Manning
HB Rashad Jennings
FB Henry Hynoski
New York Giants
Head Coach Tom Coughlin
Off. Coordinator Ben McAdoo
Def. Coordinator Steve Spagnolo
2014 W-L-T 6-10-0
Pts 23.8
Opp 25.0
   
Ratings  
PiRate 99.9
Mean 99.7
Bias 100.4
Average 100.0
   
Grades  
Running C
Passing A-
Vs. Run C-
Vs. Pass C
Special Teams A
Coaching + Intangibles A-
   
Predicted W-L 9-7-0
Division Rank 3
Conference Rank 8
Overall Rank 16
Postseason No

 

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Eagles Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Jordan Matthews
WR Nelson Agholor
WR Riley Cooper
TE Zach Ertz
LT Jason Peters
LG Allen Barbre
C Jason Kelce
RG Andrew Gardner
RT Lane Johnson
QB Sam Bradford
HB DeMarco Murray
FB (NONE)
   
Defense
DE Fletcher Cox
DT Bennie Logan
DE Cedric Thornton
LB Connor Barwin
LB Mychal Kendricks
LB Kiko Alonso
LB Brandon Graham
CB Nolan Carroll
S Malcolm Jenkins
S Walter Thurmond
CB Byron Maxwell
N5 Eric Rowe
   
Special
Kicker Cody Parkey
Punter Donnie Jones
KR Josh Huff
PR Darren Sproles
Philadelphia Eagles
Head Coach Chip Kelly
Off. Coordinator Pat Shurmur
Def. Coordinator Bill Davis
2014 W-L-T 10-6-0
Pts 29.7
Opp 25.0
   
Ratings  
PiRate 104.7
Mean 103.9
Bias 105.2
Average 104.6
   
Grades  
Running A
Passing B
Vs. Run A
Vs. Pass C
Special Teams A
Coaching + Intangibles B+
   
Predicted W-L 9-7-0
Division Rank 2
Conference Rank 4
Overall Rank 8
Postseason Yes

 

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Redskins Starting Lineup
Offense
WR DeSean Jackson
WR Pierre Garcon
WR Andre Roberts
TE Jordan Reed
LT Trent Williams
LG Shawn Lauvao
C Kory Lichtensteiger
RG Brandon Scherff
RT Morgan Moses
QB Robert Griffin III
HB Alfred Morris
FB Darrel Young
   
Defense
DE Stephen Paea
NT Terrance Knighton
DE Jason Hatcher
LB Ryan Kerrigan
LB Keenan Robinson
LB Perry Riley
LB Trent Murphy
CB DeAngelo Hall
S Duke Ihenacho
S Dashon Golden
CB Chris Culliver
N5 Bashaud Breeland
   
Special
Kicker Kai Forbath
Punter Tress Way
KR Andre Roberts
PR Andre Roberts
Washington Redskins
Head Coach Jay Gruden
Off. Coordinator Sean McVay
Def. Coordinator Joe Barry
2014 W-L-T 4-12-0
Pts 18.8
Opp 27.4
   
Ratings  
PiRate 93.2
Mean 92.1
Bias 92.5
Average 92.6
   
Grades  
Running C+
Passing C-
Vs. Run C
Vs. Pass C
Special Teams C
Coaching + Intangibles D
   
Predicted W-L 6-10-0
Division Rank 4
Conference Rank 15
Overall Rank 29
Postseason No

 

January 3, 2012

2011-12 NFL Simulated Football Playoffs–Wildcard Round

The four NFL Wildcard Round Playoff Games were placed in the computer simulator this morning, and the results are posted below.  Each game was simulated 100 times.

 

What you will see below are the following results:

1. How many of the 100 simulations each team won

2. The Average score of the 100 simulations for each team

3. The number or times out of 100 each simulation covered the spread for the teams (with the number of pushes as well)

4. The largest outlier score for each team

 

The PiRate Ratings will not endorse wagering on these games based on this data.  It is experimental, and although the simulator has been accurate in the past in picking winners, it has been about 55% accurate against the spread, which is not worthy of using as an investment tool.  For any tool to be worthwhile in picking games against the spread, it must top 57.4%, which is 5% above the break-even mark.

 

Saturday, July 7, 2012

4:30 PM EST (NBC)—Cincinnati Bengals 9-7-0 at Houston Texans 10-6-0

Vegas Line: Houston by 3

Totals: 38

 

100 Simulations

Cincinnati 54  Houston 46

 

Average Simulation Score

Cincinnati 16.8  Houston 14.4  31.2 total points

 

Covered Spread

Cincinnati 71

Houston 24

Push 5

 

Outlier Scores

Cincinnati 34  Houston 10

Houston 24  Cincinnati 6

Saturday, January 7, 2012

 

8:00 PM EST (NBC)–Detroit Lions 10-6-0 at New Orleans Saints 13-3-0

 

 

 

Vegas Line: New Orleans by 10 ½

 

Totals: 58

 

 

 

100 Simulations

 

New Orleans 81  Detroit 19

 

 

 

Average Simulation Score

 

New Orleans 32.6  Detroit 23.1  55.7 total points

 

 

 

Covered Spread

 

Detroit 54

 

New Orleans 46

 

 

 

Outlier Scores

 

New Orleans 48  Detroit 17 & New Orleans 45  Detroit 14

 

Detroit 38  New Orleans 27

 

 

 

 

Sunday, January 8, 2012

1:00 PM EST (FOX)—Atlanta Falcons 10-6-0 at New York Giants 9-7-0

 

Vegas Line: New York Giants by 3

Totals: 47 ½

 

100 Simulations

New York Giants 53  Atlanta 47

 

Average Simulation Score

New York Giants 26.7  Atlanta 23.8  50.5 total points

 

Covered Spread

Atlanta 47

New York Giants 46

Push 7

 

Outlier Scores

New York Giants 38  Atlanta 14

Atlanta 35  New York Giants 13

Sunday, July 8, 2012

 

4:30 PM EST (CBS)—Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4-0 at Denver Broncos 8-8-0

 

Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 8

 

Totals: 34 ½

 

 

 

100 Simulations

 

Pittsburgh 92  Denver 8

 

 

 

Average Simulation Score

 

Pittsburgh 25.3  Denver 8.7  34.0 total points

 

 

 

Covered Spread

 

Pittsburgh 79

 

Denver 18

 

Push 3

 

 

 

Outlier Scores

 

Pittsburgh 41  Denver 10

 

Denver 16  Pittsburgh 10

 

 

 

Reminder: Check back Friday morning for the results of our simulated NCAA Playoffs—Simper Bowl V. 

 

 

 

Check back Friday afternoon for the results of 100 simulations of the BCS National Championship Game.

 

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