The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 17, 2013

PiRate Ratings–College Football: September 19-21, 2013

Odds and Ends

This is shaping up to be a season where multiple big-time coaching jobs could become available in the college football world.  As many as five major schools could be searching for a new head man to lead them back to where they think they should be.

 

We’ll start in Austin, Texas, where Longhorn coach Mack Brown appears to be losing control of a team that had enough talent to run the table.  The defense, which should have been vastly improved, has taken a step back.  Numerous media mentions of all the talent that did not sign with the Longhorns, including quarterbacks Robert Griffin III, Johnny Manziel, and Jameis Winston, make the coaching staff look incompetent, even if it isn’t totally so.  The bottom line is that at Texas, 10-2 should be the weakest acceptable won-loss record for a school with all the resources needed to be the New York Yankees of college football.   There is enough quality talent in the Lone Star State to stock an entire BCS conference.

 

Next, let’s venture to Los Angeles, where some clever person has been going around painting the word “Kiffin” on all the fire lanes in the area.  Lane Kiffin might have to beat Stanford in the regular season and Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game to save his job.  USC is not a slam dunk success like Texas, but it should be rather easy to recruit enough talent to compete for the national title three years out of five.  The defense has given up twice as many points per game in Kiffin’s tenure than it did in the last several years of the Carroll era.  The Wild Bunch they are not.

 

Next, we’ll venture to the plains and stop in Lincoln, Nebraska, where Bo Pelini has not turned the Cornhuskers’ program around.  The Cornhuskers believe that every year should be 1971, 1983, 1995, or 1997.  After Tom Osborne left, Frank Solich carried on the tradition with minor slippage.  58-19 was not good enough for the rabid NU fans, and Solich was chased off following a 10-3 season in 2003.  Ten years and two coaches later, the Cornhuskers have not equaled that 10-3 record that was not good enough for Solich to keep his job.  Under Solich, Nebraska’s scoring margin was 15.1 points per game.  In his tenure, they gave up 17.4 points per game.  Pelini’s Cornhusker teams have lost four games every year, and this year’s team looks like it could have a tough time losing just that many.  Throw in a recent audio release that displayed the coach bad-mouthing the Cornhusker fans in an expletive-filled monologue, and it looks like short of Nebraska getting to the Rose Bowl, Pelini’s job is in serious jeopardy.

 

Now, throw in the regular turnover that happens every year, and add these three big jobs that could become open.  The following is a list of schools where coaches could decide to retire or try something else.

 

Steve Spurrier—South Carolina:  Spurrier is 68 years old.  He does not seem very happy this year, as there has been dissension in Columbia.  He may decide playing golf every day is preferable to this.

 

Kirk Ferentz—Iowa: Ferentz has long been known as one of the best pure coaches in the game.  His Iowa Hawkeyes have shared to Big Ten titles, but they have never earned a trip to Pasadena in his 14 previous seasons.  Ferentz has turned down multiple offers to move to the NFL where he was a highly competent assistant under Bill Belichick with the original Cleveland Browns.  At 58, if he ever wants to be an NFL head coach, it needs to be soon.  This could be the year he finally pulls the trigger.

 

Jerry Kill—Minnesota:  This is a sad situation.  Kill is an excellent coach, and he is slowly turning the Gophers’ program around.  He revived the downtrodden program at Northern Illinois in just three seasons, and in year three in the Twin Cities, he has UM off to a 3-0 start with a nine-win season possible.  Unfortunately, Kill suffers from epilepsy, and just last week he had to leave a game for the fourth time due to seizure.  He has received the emphasis “Vote of Confidence” from the administration, but VOCs very frequently prove to be metaphorical for “PYBs” or “Pack Your Bags.”  It is not fair, but other schools are using this in recruiting, and the more events that take place, the more it will be effective.  Kill may have to step aside for another position in the university.  Life is not fair.

 

Mike Gundy—Oklahoma St.: Gundy has a fat record (70-35) in Stillwater, and he has all the pieces he needs (T. Boone Pickens and his money) to build a dynasty at OSU.  However, there is a black cloud hanging over this team as a multiple-part expose emerges detailing how the Cowboys’ climbed almost to the top of the mountain via the illicit trail.  If sanctions come down, Gundy could even receive a show-cause edict, which would basically force him out of coaching at the college level for “x” amount of years.

 

Bob Stoops—Oklahoma: This is crazy, but there are football zealots in Oklahoma that are not satisfied with a 150-37 won-loss record.  They should look closely up north where their former conference rival exiled Coach Solich to Athens, Ohio.  Stoops has not won a second national championship.  It has been 13 years.  Never mind that he brought OU to the National Championship Game twice but lost to teams that were among the 25 best of all time.

 

The Return of the Rebels?

If you are college football fan over the age of 55, you can remember a time when the Ole Miss football team was the equivalent of Oregon in modern times.  Yes, the Rebels once were the most exciting team in college football, and they competed for the national title every year.  They even won three of them back when four to seven polls’ champions were recognized as real champions.

 

Under legendary coach Johnny Vaught, Ole Miss became the first SEC team to emphasize a wide-open style of play with quarterbacks that could pass the ball on any down from any place on the field.  Prior to Vaught, all SEC teams still played caveman football.  They ran the ball 99% of the time until they passed their own 40 yard line.  If it was 3rd and 10 from their own 25 yard line, teams were more likely to punt the ball rather than attempt a pass.  Some teams had four or five passing plays in their playbook and even numbered them as “Pass Number Four.”  Teams ran the ball 90% of the time, and when they did throw, it was usually a play-action pass on first or second down in the other team’s territory.

 

Vaught changed that in Oxford.  He used the Wing-T, Slot-T, T with Flanker, and even a three-receiver set with no tight ends.  Other SEC teams still had two tight ends and no wide receivers, and Tennessee still used the Single Wing.  Under Vaught, Ole Miss made football exciting.  Quarterbacks matriculated to Oxford, because it gave them the opportunity to show off their skills to NFL scouts.  Archie Manning may have been the most widely publicized QB to play for Vaught, but top notch passers like Glynn Griffing, Jake Gibbs, and Charlie Conerly.

 

After Vaught retired at the end of the 1970 season, Ole Miss fell on hard times.  Multiple losing seasons followed with the occasional rebound to 6-5 or 8-4.  Eli Manning brought the Rebels a short-term window where they faced off against LSU in 2003 with the winner taking the conference championship, but alas, the Bengal Tigers nipped them by a field goal and went on to capture the national title as well.

 

Now, Hugh Freeze has the Rebels on track to return to the times when everything was gravy in Oxford.  Ole Miss looks like a team capable of scaring Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M.  Freeze took a 2-10 team in 2011 and won seven games including an impressive blowout of Pittsburgh in the BBVA Compass Bowl last year.  After demolishing Texas in Austin last week, Ole Miss has its first 3-0 start since 1989.  The Rebels have the benefit of an extra week to prepare for Alabama in Tuscaloosa on the 28th, and the Tide did not roll all over Ole Miss last year.  If Ole Miss can gain a split in the their next four games (at Alabama, at Auburn, Texas A&M, and LSU), they could earn a Cotton, Capital One, or Outback Bowl bid in year two of the new regime.  And, if they go 3-1, they could be looking at the Sugar Bowl or better.  Oh, and Ole Miss had its best recruiting year since the Vaught days.  Some of the true freshmen are already paying big dividends for Freeze.  Now, a school that has been recognized in modern times as a great place to enjoy a football game and watch a team wearing Harvard Crimson and Yale Blue has become a place to watch the new most exciting team of the Deep South.

 

Previews Of This Week’s Key Games

Clemson at North Carolina St.: The Tigers fortunately had a week off to come down from the high of beating Georgia.  They now have a trap game when they travel to Raleigh Thursday night.  The Wolf Pack will be waiting in ambush, and as much as the Clemson Memorial Stadium crowd helped CU in its big win, the Carter-Finley faithful will help NCSU.  State is 2-0, albeit against two pushovers, but the Pack also had a week off to prepare for this game.  Expect State to play its best game of the entire season, but will it be enough?

 

Arizona St. at Stanford: Stanford has not looked all that impressive in its first two games, while Arizona St. has looked like a team capable of winning the Pac-12 South flag.  The winner of this game will move to the top of the heap of Duck challengers.  It should be as exciting as last Saturday’s ASU-Wisconsin game.  Hopefully, a blown call will not decide this one.

 

North Carolina at Georgia Tech:  We have seen the Techsters easily dispose of Elon and Duke, but can the Yellow Jackets run all over a quality ACC team?  If the answer is yes, then the ACC race just became very interesting.  Tech still has road games against Miami, BYU, and Clemson, and of course, they end with Georgia.  If Paul Johnson is on the verge of taking the one BCS team that runs the spread option offense back toward the top of the league, then the rest of the league’s coaches will not sleep easily.  It is virtually impossible to practice against this offense when your scout team cannot learn to run it in one week.

 

Auburn at LSU: LSU has quietly started 3-0 with three impressive offensive showings.  Auburn is also 3-0 under new coach Gus Malzahn.  LSU should win this game by double digits, but it will be an excellent test to gauge where both programs stand.  Should LSU win handily, and Auburn continue to play well, it could mean that Les Miles has a possible 2011 repeat on his hands.  If Auburn pulls off the upset, then Malzahn will be crowned the new Shug Jordan.

 

Arkansas at Rutgers: This contest allows us to gauge the American Athletic Conference.  Rutgers looks like a middle of the pack team in the new AAC, while Arkansas is probably around 8th or 9th best in the SEC.  Bret Bielema has rapidly installed his style of offense in Fayetteville, and the Razorbacks have two backs topping 100 yards in the same game.  When he finds two tight ends capable of making all-conference at the same time, it will be time to seriously look at Arkansas as a player in the toughest division in college football.

 

Michigan St. at Notre Dame:  The Irish have not put it together for four quarters in their first three games, and Michigan St. may require such an effort for Notre Dame to avoid a 2-2 start.  This game basically becomes a BCS at-large bowl eliminator, as the loser will have virtually no chance to qualify for such.  Notre Dame must finish in the top eight in the BCS standings to automatically earn a bid to one of the big five bowls.  10-2 should be good enough with the schedule they play.  9-3 will be iffy.  8-4 means they will bowl in December.

 

Missouri at Indiana: This one is somewhat similar to the Arkansas and Rutgers game, but with one extra reason to watch.  Missouri underperformed last year with quarterback James Franklin injured.  Is this team capable of playing with Georgia, Florida,  and South Carolina?  If the Tigers win convincingly, we still may not know the answer, but a convincing win will definitely move MU above Tennessee and Vanderbilt as the team most likely to surprise one of the big three.  Coach Gary Pinkel could have Mizzou at 5-0 when they play at Georgia on October 12.  The Tigers will be out for blood in that game after the Bulldogs clawed them by three touchdowns in their inaugural conference game last year.

 

Here are this week’s college football ratings.

PiRate Regular

1

Oregon

133.9

2

Alabama

132.5

3

Ole Miss

124.9

4

Stanford

124.2

5

Oklahoma St.

122.6

6

Texas A&M

122.0

7

Georgia

121.5

8

L S U

121.2

9

Ohio St.

120.7

10

South Carolina

119.9

11

Arizona

119.5

12

Washington

118.9

13

U C L A

118.6

14

Florida St.

118.5

15

Louisville

117.6

16

Baylor

117.5

17

Florida

117.5

18

Arizona St.

117.0

19

Clemson

116.7

20

Texas

116.4

21

Oklahoma

115.6

22

Notre Dame

115.6

23

Michigan

115.3

24

Wisconsin

115.2

25

Oregon St.

115.1

26

Missouri

115.1

27

Michigan St.

114.8

28

Miami

114.6

29

Georgia Tech

114.6

30

Northwestern

114.5

31

T C U

113.1

32

U S C

113.0

33

B Y U

110.8

34

Virginia Tech

110.7

35

Nebraska

110.7

36

Penn St.

110.0

37

Kansas St.

109.1

38

Vanderbilt

108.9

39

Texas Tech

108.8

40

Mississippi St.

108.6

41

Auburn

107.2

42

North Carolina

106.9

43

Cincinnati

105.7

44

Washington St.

105.7

45

Tennessee

105.6

46

West Virginia

103.8

47

Indiana

103.8

48

Central Florida

103.4

49

Fresno St.

103.2

50

Utah

103.1

51

Utah St.

103.0

52

Minnesota

102.0

53

Syracuse

101.6

54

San Jose St.

101.0

55

Arkansas

100.9

56

Boise St.

100.3

57

Boston College

100.2

58

Iowa

99.9

59

Illinois

99.8

60

Toledo

99.7

61

Pittsburgh

99.4

62

Maryland

99.2

63

Bowling Green

99.2

64

Rutgers

99.0

65

Kentucky

99.0

66

East Carolina

98.2

67

Iowa St.

98.1

68

Northern Illinois

98.1

69

Rice

97.7

70

Duke

97.6

71

Navy

97.6

72

Ball St.

97.5

73

Purdue

96.8

74

Marshall

96.8

75

North Carolina St.

96.7

76

Wake Forest

96.6

77

Louisiana–Monroe

96.4

78

California

96.3

79

Louisiana–Lafayette

94.4

80

Arkansas St.

93.9

81

Virginia

93.7

82

Kansas

93.7

83

Tulsa

93.6

84

S M U

93.5

85

North Texas

92.8

86

San Diego St.

92.5

87

Colorado

92.0

88

Ohio

91.6

89

Houston

91.2

90

Wyoming

91.0

91

Colorado St.

90.0

92

Buffalo

89.7

93

Connecticut

89.6

94

Western Kentucky

89.4

95

South Florida

89.3

96

U T S A

88.7

97

Kent St.

88.1

98

Memphis

87.6

99

Nevada

87.4

100

U A B

87.3

101

Middle Tennessee

86.8

102

Troy

86.8

103

Temple

86.7

104

Hawaii

85.6

105

Florida Atlantic

85.5

106

U T E P

85.3

107

Western Michigan

84.8

108

Tulane

84.7

109

Army

84.4

110

U N L V

84.3

111

Louisiana Tech

82.9

112

South Alabama

82.9

113

Akron

82.8

114

Central Michigan

82.7

115

Southern Miss.

81.3

116

Texas St.

81.2

117

Eastern Michigan

79.3

118

New Mexico

79.3

119

Air Force

79.0

120

Miami (O)

78.4

121

New Mexico St.

73.7

122

Massachusetts

71.0

123

Idaho

69.7

124

Florida Int’l

67.8

125

Georgia St.

60.1

 

PiRate Mean

1

Oregon

129.8

2

Alabama

125.1

3

Florida St.

122.2

4

Ole Miss

120.5

5

L S U

120.4

6

Arizona St.

118.8

7

Georgia

118.6

8

Ohio St.

118.0

9

South Carolina

117.9

10

Texas A&M

116.6

11

Wisconsin

116.5

12

Clemson

115.7

13

Miami

115.7

14

Louisville

115.6

15

Michigan St.

115.3

16

Stanford

114.6

17

Washington

114.6

18

Arizona

114.6

19

Georgia Tech

114.2

20

Michigan

113.8

21

Florida

113.3

22

Penn St.

113.0

23

Oklahoma St.

112.6

24

Missouri

112.2

25

Northwestern

112.1

26

Notre Dame

111.7

27

Oklahoma

111.4

28

Virginia Tech

111.0

29

U C L A

110.9

30

U S C

110.5

31

North Carolina

109.2

32

B Y U

109.0

33

Baylor

107.8

34

Nebraska

107.7

35

Indiana

107.5

36

T C U

107.4

37

Arkansas

107.4

38

Auburn

107.0

39

Texas

106.6

40

Maryland

106.5

41

Cincinnati

106.2

42

Texas Tech

106.2

43

Vanderbilt

106.0

44

Central Florida

105.6

45

Washington St.

105.1

46

Tennessee

105.0

47

Mississippi St.

104.8

48

Oregon St.

104.0

49

Illinois

103.7

50

North Carolina St.

103.0

51

Utah

102.7

52

Fresno St.

102.6

53

Rutgers

102.4

54

Minnesota

102.2

55

Houston

102.1

56

Kansas St.

101.5

57

Marshall

101.2

58

Rice

100.6

59

Ball St.

100.4

60

East Carolina

100.3

61

Toledo

100.3

62

Utah St.

99.9

63

Navy

99.8

64

Kentucky

99.6

65

Wake Forest

99.5

66

Northern Illinois

99.3

67

Bowling Green

99.0

68

Iowa

98.9

69

S M U

98.6

70

Syracuse

98.6

71

Boston College

98.5

72

Duke

98.3

73

Colorado

97.5

74

Pittsburgh

97.3

75

Virginia

97.1

76

West Virginia

96.0

77

San Jose St.

95.9

78

Memphis

95.8

79

Louisiana–Monroe

95.2

80

Ohio

95.1

81

North Texas

95.0

82

Boise St.

94.0

83

Louisiana–Lafayette

94.0

84

Purdue

93.1

85

Middle Tennessee

92.8

86

Wyoming

92.3

87

Army

92.1

88

California

91.8

89

U T E P

91.5

90

Kent St.

91.3

91

Tulane

91.2

92

Western Kentucky

91.0

93

Kansas

90.9

94

Tulsa

90.6

95

Colorado St.

90.3

96

U T S A

90.2

97

Nevada

90.1

98

Buffalo

90.0

99

U A B

89.4

100

San Diego St.

89.4

101

Texas St.

88.6

102

Arkansas St.

88.3

103

Iowa St.

88.0

104

Troy

88.0

105

Akron

87.9

106

South Alabama

87.4

107

U N L V

86.9

108

Hawaii

86.3

109

Western Michigan

86.0

110

New Mexico

85.5

111

Temple

85.1

112

Florida Atlantic

84.9

113

Central Michigan

84.9

114

Connecticut

84.6

115

Louisiana Tech

84.5

116

Eastern Michigan

84.2

117

Air Force

83.6

118

South Florida

82.3

119

Miami (O)

82.3

120

Southern Miss.

80.7

121

Massachusetts

80.2

122

New Mexico St.

80.0

123

Idaho

79.1

124

Florida Int’l

70.6

125

Georgia St.

69.3

 

PiRate Bias

1

Oregon

135.5

2

Alabama

133.6

3

Ole Miss

125.2

4

Oklahoma St.

123.4

5

Stanford

122.9

6

L S U

122.2

7

Texas A&M

122.1

8

Georgia

122.0

9

Ohio St.

121.0

10

Florida St.

120.4

11

Washington

119.9

12

South Carolina

119.6

13

Louisville

119.3

14

Arizona

118.3

15

Baylor

117.9

16

U C L A

117.9

17

Clemson

117.8

18

Arizona St.

117.0

19

Oklahoma

115.6

20

Georgia Tech

115.5

21

Florida

115.5

22

Wisconsin

115.2

23

Texas

115.1

24

Miami

114.8

25

Michigan

114.6

26

Northwestern

114.0

27

Missouri

114.0

28

Notre Dame

113.6

29

Oregon St.

113.5

30

T C U

113.3

31

Michigan St.

112.9

32

U S C

112.8

33

B Y U

112.0

34

Virginia Tech

110.3

35

Penn St.

109.3

36

Texas Tech

109.1

37

Nebraska

109.0

38

Vanderbilt

108.4

39

Mississippi St.

108.0

40

Kansas St.

107.7

41

North Carolina

107.5

42

Washington St.

106.5

43

Cincinnati

106.4

44

Auburn

106.3

45

Utah St.

105.0

46

Tennessee

104.9

47

Central Florida

104.3

48

Indiana

104.1

49

Fresno St.

104.1

50

Utah

102.5

51

West Virginia

102.1

52

San Jose St.

101.6

53

Maryland

101.5

54

Boise St.

101.1

55

Minnesota

100.9

56

Syracuse

100.7

57

Boston College

100.5

58

Illinois

100.4

59

Bowling Green

100.4

60

Toledo

100.2

61

Rutgers

99.6

62

Iowa

99.6

63

East Carolina

99.5

64

Arkansas

99.4

65

Pittsburgh

99.1

66

Rice

99.0

67

Northern Illinois

98.8

68

Marshall

98.7

69

Ball St.

98.2

70

Navy

97.7

71

North Carolina St.

97.5

72

Kentucky

97.5

73

Louisiana–Monroe

97.1

74

Wake Forest

96.5

75

Duke

96.4

76

Iowa St.

96.2

77

Purdue

94.3

78

California

94.3

79

Virginia

94.0

80

Louisiana–Lafayette

93.8

81

Arkansas St.

93.4

82

Wyoming

93.2

83

North Texas

93.0

84

S M U

92.9

85

Ohio

92.9

86

Kansas

92.6

87

Tulsa

92.6

88

Houston

92.5

89

San Diego St.

92.5

90

Colorado St.

90.4

91

Colorado

90.1

92

Connecticut

90.0

93

Buffalo

89.8

94

Western Kentucky

89.8

95

Kent St.

88.7

96

U T S A

88.4

97

Troy

88.3

98

Memphis

88.2

99

South Florida

88.0

100

U A B

87.5

101

Middle Tennessee

87.0

102

Western Michigan

87.0

103

Nevada

86.8

104

Hawaii

86.7

105

U T E P

86.0

106

Florida Atlantic

85.8

107

Army

85.7

108

Temple

85.4

109

Tulane

84.9

110

U N L V

84.7

111

South Alabama

83.9

112

Akron

83.2

113

Central Michigan

82.4

114

Louisiana Tech

82.1

115

Southern Miss.

81.3

116

Texas St.

80.4

117

New Mexico

79.5

118

Eastern Michigan

79.3

119

Air Force

79.0

120

Miami (O)

76.8

121

New Mexico St.

73.2

122

Massachusetts

70.9

123

Idaho

69.3

124

Florida Int’l

67.7

125

Georgia St.

61.5

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

0-0

3-0

117.6

115.6

119.3

Cincinnati

0-0

2-1

105.7

106.2

106.4

Central Florida

0-0

3-0

103.4

105.6

104.3

Rutgers

0-0

2-1

99.0

102.4

99.6

S M U

0-0

1-1

93.5

98.6

92.9

Houston

1-0

2-0

91.2

102.1

92.5

Connecticut

0-0

0-2

89.6

84.6

90.0

South Florida

0-0

0-3

89.3

82.3

88.0

Memphis

0-0

0-2

87.6

95.8

88.2

Temple

0-1

0-3

86.7

85.1

85.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

96.4

97.8

96.7

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida St.

1-0

2-0

118.5

122.2

120.4

Clemson

0-0

2-0

116.7

115.7

117.8

Syracuse

0-0

1-2

101.6

98.6

100.7

Boston College

1-0

2-1

100.2

98.5

100.5

Maryland

0-0

3-0

99.2

106.5

101.5

North Carolina St.

0-0

2-0

96.7

103.0

97.5

Wake Forest

0-1

1-2

96.6

99.5

96.5

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami

0-0

2-0

114.6

115.7

114.8

Georgia Tech

1-0

2-0

114.6

114.2

115.5

Virginia Tech

0-0

2-1

110.7

111.0

110.3

North Carolina

0-0

1-1

106.9

109.2

107.5

Pittsburgh

0-1

1-1

99.4

97.3

99.1

Duke

0-1

2-1

97.6

98.3

96.4

Virginia

0-0

1-1

93.7

97.1

94.0

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

104.8

106.2

105.2

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oklahoma St.

0-0

3-0

122.6

112.6

123.4

Baylor

0-0

2-0

117.5

107.8

117.9

Texas

0-0

1-2

116.4

106.6

115.1

Oklahoma

1-0

3-0

115.6

111.4

115.6

T C U

0-1

1-2

113.1

107.4

113.3

Kansas St.

0-0

2-1

109.1

101.5

107.7

Texas Tech

1-0

3-0

108.8

106.2

109.1

West Virginia

0-1

2-1

103.8

96.0

102.1

Iowa St.

0-0

0-2

98.1

88.0

96.2

Kansas

0-0

1-1

93.7

90.9

92.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

109.9

102.8

109.3

 

Big Ten Conference

 

Leaders Division

 
Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

 
Ohio St.

0-0

3-0

120.7

118.0

121.0

 
Wisconsin

0-0

2-1

115.2

116.5

115.2

 
Penn St.

0-0

2-1

110.0

113.0

109.3

 
Indiana

0-0

2-1

103.8

107.5

104.1

 
Illinois

0-0

2-1

99.8

103.7

100.4

 
Purdue

0-0

1-2

96.8

93.1

94.3

 
     

 

 

 

 

Legends Division

 
Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

 
Michigan

0-0

3-0

115.3

113.8

114.6

 
Northwestern

0-0

3-0

114.5

112.1

114.0

 
Michigan St.

0-0

3-0

114.8

115.3

112.9

 
Nebraska

0-0

2-1

110.7

107.7

109.0

 
Minnesota

0-0

3-0

102.0

102.2

100.9

 
Iowa

0-0

2-1

99.9

98.9

99.6

 
     

 

 

 

 
League Averages    

108.6

108.5

107.9

 

Conference USA

 

East Division

 
Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

 
East Carolina

1-0

2-1

98.2

100.3

99.5

 
Marshall

0-0

2-1

96.8

101.2

98.7

 
U A B

0-0

0-2

87.3

89.4

87.5

 
Middle Tennessee

0-0

2-1

86.8

92.8

87.0

 
Florida Atlantic

0-1

1-2

85.5

84.9

85.8

 
Southern Miss.

0-0

0-3

81.3

80.7

81.3

 
Florida Int’l

0-0

0-3

67.8

70.6

67.7

 
     

 

 

 

 

West Division

 
Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

 
Rice

0-0

1-1

97.7

100.6

99.0

 
Tulsa

0-0

1-2

93.6

90.6

92.6

 
North Texas

0-0

2-1

92.8

95.0

93.0

 
U T S A

0-0

1-2

88.7

90.2

88.4

 
U T E P

0-0

1-1

85.3

91.5

86.0

 
Tulane

1-0

2-1

84.7

91.2

84.9

 
Louisiana Tech

0-1

1-2

82.9

84.5

82.1

 
     

 

 

 

 
League Averages    

87.8

90.3

88.1

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Notre Dame

 

2-1

115.6

111.7

113.6

B Y U

 

1-1

110.8

109.0

112.0

Navy

 

2-0

97.6

99.8

97.7

Army

 

1-2

84.4

92.1

85.7

New Mexico St.

 

0-3

73.7

80.0

73.2

Idaho

 

0-3

69.7

79.1

69.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

92.0

95.3

91.9

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

1-0

2-1

99.2

99.0

100.4

Ohio

0-0

2-1

91.6

95.1

92.9

Buffalo

0-0

1-2

89.7

90.0

89.8

Kent St.

0-1

1-2

88.1

91.3

88.7

Akron

0-0

1-2

82.8

87.9

83.2

Miami (O)

0-0

0-2

78.4

82.3

76.8

Massachusetts

0-0

0-3

71.0

80.2

70.9

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Toledo

0-0

1-2

99.7

100.3

100.2

Northern Illinois

0-0

2-0

98.1

99.3

98.8

Ball St.

0-0

2-1

97.5

100.4

98.2

Western Michigan

0-0

0-3

84.8

86.0

87.0

Central Michigan

0-0

1-2

82.7

84.9

82.4

Eastern Michigan

0-0

1-2

79.3

84.2

79.3

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.9

90.8

88.4

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Utah St.

1-0

2-1

103.0

99.9

105.0

Boise St.

1-0

2-1

100.3

94.0

101.1

Wyoming

0-0

2-1

91.0

92.3

93.2

Colorado St.

0-0

1-2

90.0

90.3

90.4

New Mexico

0-0

1-2

79.3

85.5

79.5

Air Force

0-2

1-2

79.0

83.6

79.0

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

0-0

2-0

103.2

102.6

104.1

San Jose St.

0-0

1-1

101.0

95.9

101.6

San Diego St.

0-0

0-2

92.5

89.4

92.5

Nevada

0-0

1-2

87.4

90.1

86.8

Hawaii

0-0

0-2

85.6

86.3

86.7

U N L V

0-0

1-2

84.3

86.9

84.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

91.4

91.4

92.1

   

 

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon

0-0

3-0

133.9

129.8

135.5

Stanford

0-0

2-0

124.2

114.6

122.9

Washington

0-0

2-0

118.9

114.6

119.9

Oregon St.

1-0

2-1

115.1

104.0

113.5

Washington St.

1-0

2-1

105.7

105.1

106.5

California

0-0

1-2

96.3

91.8

94.3

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona

0-0

3-0

119.5

114.6

118.3

U C L A

0-0

2-0

118.6

110.9

117.9

Arizona St.

0-0

2-0

117.0

118.8

117.0

U S C

0-1

2-1

113.0

110.5

112.8

Utah

0-1

2-1

103.1

102.7

102.5

Colorado

0-0

2-0

92.0

97.5

90.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.1

109.6

112.6

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia

1-0

1-1

121.5

118.6

122.0

South Carolina

1-1

2-1

119.9

117.9

119.6

Florida

0-0

1-1

117.5

113.3

115.5

Missouri

0-0

2-0

115.1

112.2

114.0

Vanderbilt

0-2

1-2

108.9

106.0

108.4

Tennessee

0-0

2-1

105.6

105.0

104.9

Kentucky

0-0

1-2

99.0

99.6

97.5

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

1-0

2-0

132.5

125.1

133.6

Ole Miss

1-0

3-0

124.9

120.5

125.2

Texas A&M

0-1

2-1

122.0

116.6

122.1

L S U

0-0

3-0

121.2

120.4

122.2

Mississippi St.

0-1

1-2

108.6

104.8

108.0

Auburn

1-0

3-0

107.2

107.0

106.3

Arkansas

0-0

3-0

100.9

107.4

99.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.6

112.5

114.2

 

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana–Monroe

0-0

2-1

96.4

95.2

97.1

Louisiana–Lafayette

0-0

1-2

94.4

94.0

93.8

Arkansas St.

1-0

2-1

93.9

88.3

93.4

Western Kentucky

0-1

1-2

89.4

91.0

89.8

Troy

0-1

2-1

86.8

88.0

88.3

South Alabama

1-0

2-1

82.9

87.4

83.9

Texas St.

0-0

2-0

81.2

88.6

80.4

Georgia St.

0-0

0-3

60.1

69.3

61.5

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

85.6

87.7

86.0

 

Transitioning Teams *

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Southern

 

2-1

85.9

88.3

93.0

Old Dominion

 

1-2

81.7

82.5

88.5

Appalachian St.

 

0-2

78.6

77.3

85.7

Charlotte

 

2-1

56.5

61.1

63.6

           
* Not figured in regular averages to 100      

 

Here Are This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Date:

September 19-21, 2013

   

 

 

 

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Air Force Wyoming

-9.5

-6.2

-11.7

Akron UL-Lafayette

-8.6

-3.1

-7.6

Alabama Colorado St.

46.0

38.3

46.7

Army Wake Forest

-9.2

-4.4

-7.8

B Y U Utah

9.7

8.3

11.5

Baylor UL-Monroe

24.1

15.6

23.8

Central Michigan Toledo

-14.5

-12.9

-15.3

Connecticut Michigan

-22.7

-26.2

-21.6

Duke Pittsburgh

0.7

3.5

-0.2

Eastern Michigan Ball St.

-16.2

-14.2

-16.9

Florida Tennessee

14.9

11.3

13.6

Florida Atlantic Middle Tennessee

1.7

-4.9

1.8

Fresno St. Boise St.

5.9

11.6

6.0

Georgia North Texas

32.2

27.1

32.5

Georgia Tech North Carolina

10.7

8.0

11.0

Indiana Missouri

-8.3

-5.5

-6.9

Iowa Western Michigan

18.1

15.9

15.6

Kansas Louisiana Tech

13.8

9.4

13.5

L S U Auburn

17.0

16.4

18.9

Louisville Florida Int’l

52.8

48.0

54.6

Maryland (a) West Virginia

-3.1

12.0

0.9

Massachusetts Vanderbilt

-35.4

-23.3

-35.0

Memphis Arkansas St.

-3.8

10.0

-2.7

Miami (O) Cincinnati

-25.3

-21.9

-27.6

Minnesota San Jose St.

4.5

9.8

2.8

Mississippi St. Troy

24.8

19.8

22.7

Nevada Hawaii

4.8

6.8

3.1

North Carolina St. Clemson

-17.0

-9.7

-17.3

Notre Dame Michigan St.

3.8

-0.6

3.7

Penn St. Kent St.

24.9

24.7

23.6

Rice (b) Houston

6.5

-1.5

6.5

Rutgers Arkansas

1.1

-2.0

3.2

San Diego St. Oregon St.

-19.6

-11.6

-18.0

Stanford Arizona St.

10.2

-1.2

8.9

Syracuse Tulane

19.9

10.4

18.8

Texas Kansas St.

10.3

8.1

10.4

Texas A&M S M U

31.0

20.5

31.7

Texas Tech Texas St.

30.6

20.6

31.7

U C L A New Mexico St.

47.9

33.9

47.7

U S C Utah St.

13.0

13.6

10.8

U T E P U T S A

-0.9

3.8

0.1

Virginia Tech Marshall

16.9

12.8

14.6

Washington St. Idaho

38.0

28.0

39.2

Wisconsin Purdue

21.4

26.4

23.9

   

 

 

 

(a) Game Played in Baltimore

 

 

 

(b) Game Played at Reliant Stadium in Houston

 

 

 

 

PiRate Bowl Projections

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

Wyoming

vs.

Oregon St.

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Fresno St.

vs.

Arizona St.

Famous Idaho Potato

Boise St.

vs.

Ohio U

New Orleans

Arkansas St.

vs.

Middle Tennessee

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

(UL-Monroe)

vs.

North Texas

Hawai’i

Air Force

vs.

Tulsa

Little Caesars Pizza

Northern Illinois

vs.

(Texas St.)

Poinsettia

San Jose St.

vs.

(Washington St.)

Military Bowl

Pittsburgh

vs.

East Carolina

Texas

Nebraska

vs.

West Virginia

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

U S C

vs.

B Y U

Pinstripe

Rutgers

vs.

(Notre Dame)

Belk

Cincinnati

vs.

North Carolina

Russell Athletic

Central Florida

vs.

Georgia Tech

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Texas

vs.

Northwestern

Armed Forces

Utah St.

vs.

Navy

Music City

North Carolina St.

vs.

Florida

Alamo

Texas Tech

vs.

Stanford

Holiday

Kansas St.

vs.

Arizona

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

(Ball St.)

vs.

Maryland

Sun

Virginia Tech

vs.

Washington

Liberty

Arkansas

vs.

Marshall

Chick-fil-A

Miami

vs.

South Carolina

Heart Of Dallas

Rice

vs.

Minnesota

Gator

Michigan St.

vs.

Missouri

Outback

Texas A&M

vs.

Wisconsin

Capital One

Michigan

vs.

Georgia

Rose

U C L A

vs.

L S U

Fiesta

Oklahoma St.

vs.

Louisville

Sugar

Alabama

vs.

Florida St.

Cotton

Ole Miss

vs.

Baylor

Orange

Clemson

vs.

Oklahoma

BBVA Compass Bowl

Houston

vs.

Auburn

GoDaddy.com

UL-Lafayette

vs.

Bowling Green

BCS Championship

Oregon

vs.

Ohio St.

 

(Teams In Parentheses Are At-Large Selections)

 

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August 21, 2013

2013 Big Ten Conference Preview

2013 Big Ten Conference Preview

 

1997:  That’s the last year the Big Ten Conference could celebrate a national championship on the gridiron.  Michigan shared national honors with Nebraska (then in the Big 12) that year.  To find the last undisputed national champion, you must go all the way back to 1968, when Ohio St. beat O.J. Simpson and the Southern Cal Trojans in the Rose Bowl to sew up a national title that really should have been shared with Penn St.

 

In many other years, the Big Ten had opportunities to win a national title.  Ohio St. came back in 1969 with an even better team than in 1968, but the Buckeyes fell at Ann Arbor in the season finale.  OSU went 9-0 in 1970 but lost to Stanford in the Rose Bowl in a monumental upset.

 

Ohio St. blew another national championship with a Rose Bowl upset loss to UCLA in the 1975 season, and the Buckeyes lost in two BCS National Championship Games in this century.

Michigan had opportunities to win the national title in 1976 and 1977, but the Wolverines lost the Rose Bowl both years.

 

After finishing 12-0 in a year in which they were on probation, Ohio St. looks poised to challenge for national honors yet again.  The Buckeyes should be favored in all 12 games and in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game.  If OSU runs the table again this season, they should finish in one of the top two spots in the BCS ratings.

 

The Leaders Division should not offer much competition for the Buckeyes this season.  Penn St. is ineligible, and the Nittany Lions are one of two division teams capable of giving Ohio St. a good ball game.  Wisconsin fell to 8-6 last year, and Coach Bret Bielema fled to Arkansas.  New coach Gary Andersen did wonders at Utah St., but he inherits a bit of a mess in the defensive secondary.  UW must face OSU in Columbus, and it does not look promising for the boys from Madison.

 

It does look promising in Hoosierland.  Third year coach Kevin Wilson has Indiana primed to take a step forward and become bowl eligible in Bloomington.  IU should move the ball and score on every opponent on the schedule, as the Hoosiers return 10 starters from a team that hung 49 points on Ohio St. last year and averaged more than 30 points per game.  A defense that should show significant improvement means Indiana will win at least two more games this year and play in a bowl.

 

Purdue starts over with new coach Darrell Hazell, who led Kent St. to a school record 11 wins last year and just missed out on an Orange Bowl berth.  The Boilermarkers have been a mediocre bunch since 2008 and have a 54-58 record since 2004.  Year one in West Lafayette will find a lot of Boilermaker fans drowning their sorrows in a lot of XXX Root Beer.

 

Illinois continues to rebuild under Coach Tim Beckman.  A very porous 2012 defense could regress more in season two in Champaign-Urbana.

 

The Legends race promises to be exciting all season long with four teams competing for the division title.

 

Nebraska benefits with home games against Michigan St. and Northwestern and not having Ohio St. on the schedule.  Bo Pelini has won either nine or ten games in each of his five seasons in Lincoln, and this team has a good chance to get to 11 this year, if the defense can be rebuilt.  The offense is first-rate all the way, and it would not surprise us if the Cornhuskers top 500 yards per game on the attack.

 

Michigan and Michigan St. have tougher schedules and have a more difficult path to the Legends flag.  Michigan must play Ohio St. and Penn St. from the other division, and the Wolverines face Michigan St. and Northwestern on the road.  The schedule could force the Wolverines to beat Ohio St. in back-to-back weeks to win the Big Ten Championship (of course the same is true for Ohio St.).

 

Michigan St. regressed in 2012, and Coach Mark Dantonio must replace Le’Veon Bell, who led the league with almost 1,800 rushing yards and scored 12 touchdowns.  Look for the Spartans’ defense to continue to be tough against the pass and even tougher against the run, keeping Sparty in every ball game.  MSU faces Michigan, Nebraska, and Northwestern in November, the latter two in consecutive road games.

 

Northwestern finally won a bowl game last year, and the Wildcats return a lot of talent from a 10-win team.  Coach Pat Fitzgerald squeezes every ounce of potential out of his team, and NU must be considered a contender for the Legends title in 2013.  The Wildcats have two experienced quarterbacks who bring different talents to the offense; a speedy running back who can break loose for a long gain on any play; and three very capable receivers.  If the defense can replicate last year’s production, it would not surprise us if the Wildcats give Ohio St. a big scare when the Buckeyes visit Evanston on October 5 for a homecoming date.  NU gets an extra week to prepare for this game, while Ohio St. will be coming off the Wisconsin game.

 

Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz has been called the best overall coach in college football, but his Hawkeyes have not challenged for a Rose Bowl bid since 2009.  UI has a 19-19 mark in the last three seasons, and 2013 does not look to be a banner year in Hawkeye country.  A mediocre passing game could cause troubles for a power running game that has potential to be quite good.  The defense is always good, but it may be forced to stay on the field a bit too much this year.  The non-league portion of the schedule gives this team an excellent shot at going 4-0, so it could take just two wins in the conference to propel the Hawkeyes to a bowl.

 

Minnesota did just that last year.  The Gophers beat four non-league teams, three of them patsies, and then defeated Purdue and Illinois to become bowl eligible.  2013 looks to be a little more difficult as the Gophers may not be able to win more than one time in the Big Ten.

 

New Teams: None

 

Departures: None

 

2014 Additions: Maryland comes in from the ACC and Rutgers joins from the Big East.  The Big Ten will finally get rid of the Leaders and Legends divisions and go to geographical alignments.

 

East West
Indiana Illinois
Maryland Iowa
Michigan Minnesota
Michigan St. Nebraska
Ohio St. Northwestern
Penn St. Purdue
Rutgers Wisconsin

 

The league will move to a nine-game conference schedule beginning 2016.

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

0-0

0-0

118.8

116.5

119.1

Wisconsin

0-0

0-0

114.9

112.8

114.5

Penn St.

0-0

0-0

111.4

114.3

110.8

Indiana

0-0

0-0

102.9

104.2

102.1

Purdue

0-0

0-0

98.8

96.2

97.2

Illinois

0-0

0-0

94.0

97.7

93.8

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

0-0

0-0

116.4

115.8

115.4

Nebraska

0-0

0-0

116.4

113.8

115.6

Michigan

0-0

0-0

115.7

112.2

115.2

Northwestern

0-0

0-0

114.5

111.6

114.5

Minnesota

0-0

0-0

102.1

102.5

101.0

Iowa

0-0

0-0

101.7

101.5

100.8

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

109.0

108.3

108.3

 

 

Official Preseason Media Poll

Pos Team Points 1st Place

Leaders Division

1

Ohio St.

155.5

26

2

Wisconsin

128

1

3

Penn St.

104

0

4

Indiana

74.5

0

5

Purdue

52.5

0

6

Illinois

31.5

0

       

Legends Division

1

Michigan

135.5

14

2

Nebraska

132.5

14

3

Michigan St.

101.5

4

4

Northwestern

95.5

0

5

Iowa

43

0

6

Minnesota

38

0

       

Big Ten Championship Game Votes

1

Ohio St. over Nebraska

12

2

Ohio St. over Michigan

11

3

Ohio St. over Michigan St.

2

4

Michigan over Ohio St.

1

       

* Media allowed to split vote in the B10 polls

 

The Big Ten does not release an official preseason all-conference team, so we will list the key players for each team with stats from 2012 in parentheses.

 

Leaders Division

 

Illinois

Nathan  Scheelhaase—QB (60.6% comp/4 TD/8 Int.) Good runner

Donovan Young—RB (571 yards/4.4 avg)

Ryan Lankford—WR (37-469/5 TD)

Mason Monheim—LB (85 tackles/6 TFL)

Jonathan Brown—LB (59 tackles/9.5 TFL)

Justin DuVernois—P (41.9 avg/39.2 net)

 

Indiana

Cameron Coffman, Nate Sudfeld, and Tre Robinson—QB (3 battling for #1)

Cody Latimer—WR (51-806/6 TD)

Shane Wynn—WR (68-660/6 TD)

Ted Bolser—TE (41-445)

Dan Feeney—OL

David Cooper—LB (86 tackles/9 TFL)

Greg Heban—DB (91 tackles/3 Int./11 Passes Defended/7 TFL)

 

Ohio St.

Braxton Miller—QB (#1 Heisman Trophy Contender.  1,350 rush yds. with sacks removed/13 rush TD/58.3% comp./8.0 ypa/15 TD/6 Int.)

Corey Brown—WR (60-669)

Devin Smith—WR (30-618/6 TD)

Corey Linsley, Andrew Norwell, and Jack Mewhort—OL

Ryan Shazier—LB (115 tackles/5 sacks/17 TFL/12 Passes Defended)

Bradley Roby—DB (63 tackles/19 Passes Defended)

Christian Bryant—DB (71 tackles/13 Passes Defended)

 

Penn St.

Zach Zwinak—RB (1,000 rush/4.9 avg/6 TD/20-177 rec)

Allen Robinson—WR (77-1013/11 TD)

Kyle Carter—TE (36-453)

John Urschel—OL

Deion Barnes—DL (6 sacks/10 TFL)

Mike Hull—LB (58 tackles/4 sacks/5 Passes Defended)

 

Purdue

Rob Henry—QB (should top last year’s QB production of Robert Marve and Caleb TerBush [2,884])

Bruce Gaston—DL (28 tackles/5.5 TFL)

Will Lucas—LB (68 tackles/6.5 TFL)

Landon Feichter—DB (80 tackles/4 Int./7 Passes Defended)

Frankie Williams—DB (45 tackles/11 Passes Defended)

Ricardo Allen—DB (45 tackles/4 TFL/5 Passed Defended)

 

Wisconsin

Curt Phillips and Joel Stave—QB (Phillips is the better runner/Stave is the better passer.  The two combined for 1,644 passing yards and 11 TD in 2012)

James White—RB (806 rush/6.4 avg/12 TD)

Melvin Gordon—RB (621 rush/10.0 avg/3 TD)

Jared Abbrederis—WR (49-837/5 TD)

Jacob Pedersen—TE (27-355/4 TD)

Kyle Costigan, Rob Havenstein, and Ryan Groy—OL

Beau Allen—DL (37 tackles/7.5 TFL)

Chris Borland—LB (104 tackles/4.5 sacks/10 TFL/6 Passes Defended)

Dezmen Southward—DB (69 tackles/8 TFL/5 Passes Defended)

 

Legends Division

Iowa

Mark Weisman—RB (815 rush/5.1 avg/8 TD)

C. J. Fiedorowicz—TE (45-433)

Austin Blythe and Brandon Scherff—OL

Anthony Hitchens—LB (124 tackles/5.5 TFL)

James Morris—LB (113 tackles/9 TFL/5 Passes Defended)

Mike Meyer—K (100% PAT/81% FG/5-8 from 40+ yds)

 

Michigan

Devin Gardner—QB (59.5% comp./9.7 ypa/11 TD/5 Int.)

Fitz Toussaint/Derrick Green—RB.  Toussaint returns after rushing for 514 yards  in an injury-plagued season.  Green is a true freshman that could be another Jerome Bettis.  He has put on 20 pounds since last season.

Jeremy Gallon—WR (49-829)

Taylor Schofield and Michael Lewan—OL

Frank Clark—DL (25 tackles/9 TFL)

Thomas Gordon—DB (81 tackles/4 TFL/4 Passed Defended)

Brendon Gibbons—K (100% PAT/89% FG/3-5 from 40+ yds)

 

Michigan St.

Andrew Maxwell—QB (52.5% comp./13 TD/9 Int.

Bennie Fowler—WR (41-524/4 TD)

Travis Jackson and Jack Allen—OL

Marcus Rush—DL (38 tackles/7.5 TFL/5 QB Hurries)

Max Bullough—LB (111 tackles/12.5 TFL/5 Passes Defended 1st round potential)

Denicos Allen—LB (79 tackles/10 TFL/4 Passes Defended)

Isaiah Lewis—DB (80 tackles/8 Passes Defended)

Darqueze Dennard—DB (52 tackles/3 Int./10 Passes Defended)

Mike Sadler—P (43.3 avg/38.5 net)

 

Nebraska

Taylor Martinez—QB (1,019 rush/10 rush TD/62.0% comp./23 TD/12 Int.)

Ameer Abdullah—RB (1,137 rush/5.0 avg./8 TD)

Kenny Bell—WR (50-863/8 TD)

Spencer Long and Jeremiah Sirles—OL

Jason Ankrah—DL (26 tackles/6 FL)

Ciante Evans—DB (56 tackles/9 Passes Defended)

 

Northwestern

Kain Colter & Trevor Siemian—QB NU has the best platoon at this position of any team in the FBS.  Colter is the better runner, and Siemian is the better pro-style passer.  The two combined for 847 yards and 13 TD (sacks removed) and passed for 2,184 yards with a 14/7 TD/Int.

Venric Mark—RB (1,366 rush/6.0 avg/12 TD) Also PR (15-18.7/2 TD)

Brandon Vitabile—OL

Tyler Scott—DL (42 tackles/9 sacks/12.5 TFL/5 Passes Defended)

Damien Proby—LB (112 tackles/4.5 TFL)

Ibraheim Campbell—DB (89 tackles/14 Passes Defended)

Nick VanHoose—DB (33 tackles/3 Int./10 Passes Defended

Jeff Budzien—K (100% PAT/95% FG)

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100         A+

86-92           A

79-85           A-

72-78           B+

65-71           B

58-64           B-

51-57           C+

44-50           C

37-43           C-

30-36           D

0-29             F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

Leaders Division

 

Team

Illinois Fighting Illini

               
Head Coach

Tim Beckman

               
Colors

Orange and Blue

               
City

Champaign-Urbana, IL

               
2012 Record              
Conference

0-8

Overall

2-10

               
Grades              
Run Offense

48

Pass Offense

65

Run Defense

54

Pass Defense

65

               
Ratings              
PiRate

94.0

Mean

97.7

Bias

93.8

               
Rankings              
PiRate

81

Mean

68

Bias

82

               
Prediction              
Conference

0-8

Overall

2-10

 

 

Team

Indiana Hoosiers

               
Head Coach

Kevin Wilson

               
Colors

Cream and Crimson

               
City

Bloomington, IN

               
2012 Record              
Conference

2-6

Overall

4-8

               
Grades              
Run Offense

54

Pass Offense

91

Run Defense

47

Pass Defense

71

               
Ratings              
PiRate

102.9

Mean

104.2

Bias

102.1

               
Rankings              
PiRate

46

Mean

49

Bias

46

               
Prediction              
Conference

3-5

Overall

6-6

 

 

Team

Ohio St. Buckeyes

               
Head Coach

Urban Meyer

               
Colors

Scarlet and Gray

               
City

Columbus, OH

               
2012 Record              
Conference

8-0

Overall

12-0

               
Grades              
Run Offense

93

Pass Offense

78

Run Defense

86

Pass Defense

81

               
Ratings              
PiRate

118.8

Mean

116.5

Bias

119.1

               
Rankings              
PiRate

13

Mean

7

Bias

13

               
Prediction              
Conference

7-1 (win Big Ten Conf. Championship)

Overall

12-1

 

 

Team

Penn St. Nittany Lions

               
Head Coach

Bill O’Brien

               
Colors

Navy and White

               
City

State College, PA

               
2012 Record              
Conference

6-2

Overall

8-4

               
Grades              
Run Offense

74

Pass Offense

82

Run Defense

77

Pass Defense

72

               
Ratings              
PiRate

111.4

Mean

114.3

Bias

110.8

               
Rankings              
PiRate

34

Mean

14

Bias

35

               
Prediction              
Conference

4-4

Overall

8-4

 

 

Team

Purdue Boilermakers

               
Head Coach

Darrell Hazell

               
Colors

Old Gold and Black

               
City

West Lafayette, IN

               
2012 Record              
Conference

3-5

Overall

6-7

               
Grades              
Run Offense

47

Pass Offense

77

Run Defense

60

Pass Defense

66

               
Ratings              
PiRate

98.8

Mean

96.2

Bias

97.2

               
Rankings              
PiRate

62

Mean

79

Bias

74

               
Prediction              
Conference

1-7

Overall

3-9

 

 

Team

Wisconsin Badgers

               
Head Coach

Gary Andersen

               
Colors

Cardinal and White

               
City

Madison, WI

               
2012 Record              
Conference

4-4 (won Big Ten Championship)

Overall

8-6

               
Grades              
Run Offense

92

Pass Offense

71

Run Defense

85

Pass Defense

76

               
Ratings              
PiRate

114.9

Mean

112.8

Bias

114.5

               
Rankings              
PiRate

27

Mean

21

Bias

28

               
Prediction              
Conference

7-1

Overall

10-2

 

 

Team

Iowa Hawkeyes

               
Head Coach

Kirk Ferentz

               
Colors

Black and Gold

               
City

Iowa City, IA

               
2012 Record              
Conference

2-6

Overall

4-8

               
Grades              
Run Offense

67

Pass Offense

67

Run Defense

67

Pass Defense

66

               
Ratings              
PiRate

101.7

Mean

101.5

Bias

100.8

               
Rankings              
PiRate

49

Mean

55

Bias

53

               
Prediction              
Conference

1-7

Overall

5-7

 

 

Team

Michigan Wolverines

               
Head Coach

Brady Hoke

               
Colors

Maize and Blue

               
City

Ann Arbor, MI

               
2012 Record              
Conference

6-2

Overall

8-5

               
Grades              
Run Offense

79

Pass Offense

89

Run Defense

79

Pass Defense

75

               
Ratings              
PiRate

115.7

Mean

112.2

Bias

115.2

               
Rankings              
PiRate

23

Mean

24

Bias

23

               
Prediction              
Conference

6-2

Overall

9-3

 

 

Team

Michigan St. Spartans

               
Head Coach

Mark Dantonio

               
Colors

Green and White

               
City

East Lansing, MI

               
2012 Record              
Conference

3-5

Overall

7-6

               
Grades              
Run Offense

71

Pass Offense

81

Run Defense

94

Pass Defense

80

               
Ratings              
PiRate

116.4

Mean

115.8

Bias

115.4

               
Rankings              
PiRate

20

Mean

10

Bias

22

               
Prediction              
Conference

6-2

Overall

9-3

 

 

Team

Minnesota Golden Gophers

               
Head Coach

Jerry Kill

               
Colors

Maroon and Gold

               
City

Minneapolis

               
2012 Record              
Conference

2-6

Overall

6-7

               
Grades              
Run Offense

72

Pass Offense

65

Run Defense

65

Pass Defense

67

               
Ratings              
PiRate

102.1

Mean

102.5

Bias

101.0

               
Rankings              
PiRate

48

Mean

48

Bias

52

               
Prediction              
Conference

1-7

Overall

5-7

 

 

Team

Nebraska Cornhuskers

               
Head Coach

Bo Pelini

               
Colors

Scarlet and Cream

               
City

Lincoln, NE

               
2012 Record              
Conference

7-1 (lost Conf. Championship Game)

Overall

10-4

               
Grades              
Run Offense

86

Pass Offense

81

Run Defense

78

Pass Defense

81

               
Ratings              
PiRate

116.4

Mean

113.8

Bias

115.6

               
Rankings              
PiRate

19

Mean

16

Bias

21

               
Prediction              
Conference

7-1 (lose Conf. Championship Game)

Overall

11-2

 

 

Team

Northwestern Wildcats

               
Head Coach

Pat Fitzgerald

               
Colors

Purple and White

               
City

Evanston, IL

               
2012 Record              
Conference

5-3

Overall

10-3

               
Grades              
Run Offense

82

Pass Offense

77

Run Defense

85

Pass Defense

76

               
Ratings              
PiRate

114.5

Mean

111.6

Bias

114.5

               
Rankings              
PiRate

29

Mean

25

Bias

27

               
Prediction              
Conference

6-2

Overall

10-2

 

November 29, 2012

PiRate Picks For College and Pro Football–November 29-December 3, 2012

College

Championship Week presents some interesting selection opportunities this year.  In the MAC, you have a team that is looking to sneak into the Orange Bowl playing a team that is not getting any respect, except by the sports books.  In C-USA and the Pac-12, you have rematch games; Tulsa and UCF played at TU just two weeks ago, while Stanford and UCLA played last week.  Nebraska and Wisconsin played earlier this year.

 

Then you have the big game of the day, which is basically the National Championship Semifinal round.

 

In the Big East, Rutgers and Louisville square off with a BCS Bowl on the line, while both Connecticut and Pittsburgh play must-win games to become bowl eligible.

 

The Sunbelt Conference championship is up for grabs in Jonesboro, where Arkansas State hosts Middle Tennessee.

 

1. Rutgers -3 vs. Louisville

Look for the Scarlet Knights to rebound from a lousy showing at Pitt last week and earn a trip to either the Orange or Sugar Bowl.  Louisville has not been the same since all the rumors revolving around Coach Charlie Strong and several job openings.

 

2. Kent St. +6 ½ vs. Northern Illinois

In our eyes, this is a tossup game where the two teams have an exact 50-50 chance of winning.  Kent State has more to play for, although Northern Illinois still has a very remote chance themselves of moving into the top 16 in the BCS standings.

 

3. Connecticut +5 vs. Cincinnati

Coach Butch Jones was offered the Kentucky job and turned it down when financial and other arrangements could not be met.  It is only a matter of time before he lands somewhere else, and the Bearcats may not be totally in this week.  UConn has to win this game to become bowl eligible, and the Huskies have been a much better team in November than they were in September.

 

4. South Florida +7 vs. Pittsburgh

The Bulls are one of the biggest disappointments in college football this year.  USF had the talent to win the Big East, but they will finish in last place instead.  Pittsburgh needs to win this game to move to 6-6, and we think the Panthers have a 60-65% chance of winning on the road, but seven points are too many to turn down.

 

5. Arkansas St. -9 ½ vs. Middle Tennessee

The winner of this game takes the SBC title, and the loser is probably headed to Detroit to replace the Big Ten in the Little Caesar’s Bowl.  Our ratings show ASU to be a 14-point favorite, and the Red Wolves have been the best team in the league by far since losing to Western Kentucky in September.  We’ll go with Coach Gus Malzahn’s team to win by double digits and repeat as league champs.

 

6. Central Florida +2 vs. Tulsa

Two weeks ago, UCF appeared to be the better team when these two squads squared off.  A couple of mental mistakes led to Tulsa scores, and UCF still made a comeback and almost won.  This time around, we believe the Knights will win this game by more than a touchdown.

 

7. Alabama -7 vs. Georgia

We have been analyzing this game position by position all week, and we keep coming up with the same conclusion.  The Crimson Tide are 10 points or more better than the Bulldogs even when we give UGa two points for quasi home field advantage.  The Tide offensive line is going to push the Bulldog defensive line off the line of scrimmage more often than the reverse, and Alabama will control the game with their offense.  Alabama’s secondary can be exploited and will be a couple of times, but in the end, ‘Bama will have too much for the Dogs.

 

8. Nebraska -3 vs. Wisconsin

When these teams faced each other in Lincoln in September, Nebraska came back from a double-digit halftime deficit to win.  At the time, the Cornhuskers were 3-1 with wins over lowly Southern Mississippi (who would go 0-12), FCS member Idaho State, and Arkansas State (before the Red Wolves put it together).  The loss dropped UW to 3-2, and the Badgers never recovered, going through quarterbacks like the Yankees used to go through managers.  We see Coach Bo Pelini’s squad winning with authority this time.

 

Money Line Parlay @ +111

Stanford over UCLA

Kansas St. over Texas

West Virginia over Kansas

Florida St. over Georgia Tech

 

N F L

With two games off the board this week, and two more having pointspreads that are right where we think they should be, our selection choices are limited.  We like just two straight selections, and we found three 13-point teasers to supplement the two side selections.

 

1. Minnesota +9 ½ vs. Green Bay

The Vikings are very much alive in the Wildcard race, and they are coming off a lousy performance against Chicago.  We believe Minny will rebound with an A-effort game.  9 ½ points are a lot in a rivalry game.

 

2. New York Jets -4 ½ vs. Arizona

What a crappy game this should be!  The Cardinals were the darling of the league at 4-0, but they have lost seven games in a row since then, finding new ways to lose every week.  The Jets have been given up for dead, and Coach Rex Ryan may be coaching for his job.  With Jon Gruden looking to become employed again, we believe this is the job he really would like.  We’ll go with the Jets to rebound and use a superior ground game to win this won by a touchdown.

 

3. 13-point Teaser

Atlanta +9 ½ vs. New Orleans

Chicago +9 ½ vs. Seattle

Minnesota +22 ½ vs. Green Bay

St. Louis +20 vs. San Francisco

 

4. 13-point Teaser

New York Jets +8 ½ vs. Arizona

Kansas City +16 vs. Carolina

Detroit +8 vs. Indianapolis

Buffalo +7 ½ vs. Jacksonville

 

5. 13-point Teaser

Miami +22 vs. New England

Houston +7 vs. Tennessee

Tampa Bay +21 vs. Denver

Cincinnati +12 vs. San Diego

November 8, 2012

PiRate Picks For College and Pro Football–November 8-12, 2012

College

We have started to warm up in the college selections with a 60% success rate over the previous four weeks, bringing our record against the spread for the season to 56%.

 

Before we get to our picks this week, here are some interesting college tidbits:

1. If Indiana upsets Wisconsin this week, the Hoosiers would more than likely become the Leaders Division representative in the Big Ten Championship Game.  They would only need to defeat a lowly Purdue team in two weeks to secure the spot.

 

2. In the event that Louisville, Cincinnati, and Rutgers finished tied for the Big East championship with 6-1 conference marks, the automatic BCS Bowl bid goes to the highest-ranked team in the BCS rankings.  Louisville would more than likely be that team, since they would be 11-1, whereas the other two would be 10-2.

 

3. There is a possibility that at least four and maybe as many as six SEC jobs could become open at the end of the regular season.  Arkansas and Kentucky already have active job searches going on, while Auburn and Tennessee are almost foregone conclusions.  Add to this the possibility that two hot coaching commodities, Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen and Vanderbilt’s James Franklin could be on several short lists, there could be a lot of new faces next year in the top conference in the land.  However, before any hot coach considers applying for these vacancies, they may have to wait to see if another job becomes available.  Texas may or may not decide that Mack Brown is ready to retire, and if that job becomes available, just about every successful coach in the nation could become a candidate, even Nick Saban.  There is also a chance that Southern Cal may wish to end the Lane Kiffin experience.  Look for a lot of interesting and surprising moves.

 

4. Nick Saban would have nothing left to prove if he wins another National Championship at Alabama.  That would give him four total and three in four years at Alabama.  He still has desires to hoist a Lombardi Trophy, and he cannot do that at Tuscaloosa.  There will be three or four openings in the NFL at the end of the season, and he could be a candidate for any of these positions.  Carolina, New Orleans, and Tennessee come to mind.

 

Here are this week’s college picks:

 

1. Louisville -2 ½ vs. Syracuse

2. Central Michigan -3 vs. Eastern Michigan

3. Kent St. -6 ½ vs. Miami (O)

4. Southern Cal -9 vs. Arizona St.

5. Arkansas +14 vs. South Carolina

 

6. 10-point Teaser

UL-Monroe +17 vs. Arkansas St.

Louisville +7 ½ vs. Syracuse

Miami +11 vs. Virginia

 

7. 10-point Teaser

North Carolina +1 vs. Georgia Tech

Alabama -3 ½ vs. Texas A&M

Georgia -5 ½ vs. Auburn

 

8. 10-point Teaser

Penn St. +17 ½ vs. Nebraska

Southern Cal +1 vs. Arizona St.

Texas Pk. vs. Iowa St.

 

9. 10-point Teaser

San Diego St. + ½ vs. Air Force

U C L A -4 ½ vs. Washington St.

Memphis +11 vs. Tulane

 

10. 13-point Teaser

Minnesota +10 vs. Illinois

Washington +14 ½ vs. Utah

Missouri +16 vs. Tennessee

Marshall +10 ½ vs. U A B

 

11. Money Line Parlay @ +106

Wisconsin over Indiana

Iowa over Purdue

 

12. Money Line Parlay @ -119

North Carolina over Georgia Tech

Kent St. over Miami (O)

 

13. Money Line Parlay @ -110

Georgia over Auburn

Southern Cal over Arizona St.

Texas over Iowa St.

 

 

N F L

We removed the totals from our teasers last week, and it worked to the tune of a 4-1 mark against the spread.  So, this week, we are continuing to rely on teasing just sides.  We have isolated a pair of games that we really like, so we are going to key them in three separate selections.  It will be feast or famine, but that’s what makes it so exciting!

 

1. Denver -3 ½ vs. Carolina

2. Philadelphia +1 ½ vs. Dallas

3. Houston +1 vs. Chicago

 

4. 10-point Teaser

Indianapolis +7 vs. Jacksonville

New England -1 vs. Buffalo

NY Giants +6 vs. Cincinnati

 

5. 10-point Teaser

San Francisco -1 vs. St. Louis

Houston +11 vs. Chicago

Pittsburgh -2 vs. Kansas City

 

6. 13-point Teaser

Denver +9 vs. Carolina

Baltimore +5 ½ vs. Oakland

Tampa Bay +10 vs. San Diego

Miami +7 ½ vs. Tennessee

 

7. 13-point Teaser

Denver +9 vs. Carolina

Baltimore +5 ½ vs. Oakland

New Orleans +15 ½ vs. Atlanta

Philadelphia +14 ½ vs. Dallas

 

8. 13-point Teaser

Denver +9 vs. Carolina

Baltimore +5 ½ vs. Oakland

New England +2 vs. Buffalo

Pittsburgh Pk. vs. Kansas City

 

9. Money Line Parlay @ -117

Pittsburgh over Kansas City

Baltimore over Oakland

New England over Buffalo

October 25, 2012

PiRate Picks For College and Pro Football–October 25-29, 2012

Rarely do we find so many games this late in the season that we feel so passionate about, but this week, the PiRates believe many of the college lines are out of whack.  We are going with a baker’s dozen picks, with 12 being straight side selections, something we rarely ever do.

 

College

1. Clemson -11 ½ vs. Wake Forest

2. Miami (O) +7 vs. Ohio U

3. Ball St. -4 ½ vs. Army

4. Maryland +1 ½ vs. Boston College

5. North Carolina St. +7 ½ vs. North Carolina

6. Boise St. -16 ½ vs. Wyoming

7. Georgia +7 vs. Florida

8. Missouri -13 ½ vs. Kentucky

9. Arizona St. -6 ½ vs. UCLA

10. Kansas St. -7 vs. Texas Tech

11. Notre Dame +11 vs. Oklahoma

12. Michigan +2 vs. Nebraska

 

13. 10-point Teaser

Iowa +16 vs. Northwestern

Maryland +11 ½ vs. Boston College

Indiana +12 vs. Illinois

 

N F L

1. Minnesota -6 ½ vs. Tampa Bay

2. St. Louis +7 vs. New England

3. Atlanta +3 vs. Philadelphia

4. New York Jets -2 ½ vs. Miami

5. Oakland +1 vs. Kansas City

6. New York Giants -1 vs. Dallas

 

7. 13-point Teaser

Indianapolis +16 ½ vs. Tennessee

Green Bay -2 ½ vs. Jacksonville

Cleveland +15 ½ vs. San Diego

Atlanta +16 vs. Philadelphia

 

8. 13-point Teaser

Detroit +11 vs. Seattle

New York Jets +10 ½ vs. Miami

Oakland +14 vs. Kansas City

New York Giants +11 vs. Dallas

 

9. 13-point Teaser

Indianapolis & Tennessee OVER 33 ½

Green Bay & Jacksonville OVER 32 ½

Atlanta & Philadelphia OVER 32

Oakland & Kansas City OVER 28 ½

 

October 18, 2012

PiRate Picks For College and Pro Football–October 18-22, 2012

Last Weeks Picks

College: 7-4-0

NFL: 6-2-1

 

This Week’s Picks

 

College

1. Nebraska -6 ½ vs. Northwestern

2. New Mexico +11 vs. Notre Dame

3. Virginia Tech +8 ½ vs. Clemson

4. Stanford -2 vs. California

5. Washington +8 vs. Arizona

6. East Carolina -3 vs. UAB

7. San Diego St. +7 vs. Nevada

 

8. 10-point Teaser

North Carolina -1/2 vs. Duke

Boston College +24 vs. Georgia Tech

Alabama -10 vs. Tennessee

 

9. 10-point Teaser

Michigan Pk. vs. Michigan St.

Texas A&M +13 vs. L S U

South Carolina +13 ½ vs. Florida

 

N F L

We don’t see much value in these lines this week and will only play three selections.

 

1. 13-point Teaser

Tennessee & Buffalo OVER 33

Arizona & Minnesota OVER 27

Arizona +19 vs. Minnesota

Tampa Bay +16 vs. New Orleans

 

 

2. 13-point Teaser

Cleveland +15 ½ vs. Indianapolis

Cleveland & Indianapolis OVER 32

St. Louis +18 vs. Green Bay

St. Louis & Green Bay OVER 32

 

3. 13-point Teaser

Dallas +11 vs. Carolina

Dallas & Carolina OVER 32 ½

Washington +18 ½ vs. NY Giants

Washington & NY Giants OVER 37

December 26, 2010

PiRate Ratings College Football Bowl Preview, Part Two

We are posting three bowl previews this year; this is the second preview.  We will give you the current odds for each game, the PiRate, Mean, and Bias spreads for each game, and the results of our 100 computer simulations for each game.

 

Today, we cover the bowls from Boxing Day through New Year’s Day.  Next week, we will preview the bowls from January 2 to the Championship Game. 

 

Sunday, December 26

Little Caesar’s Bowl

Detroit, MI

8:30 PM EST on ESPN

Toledo (8-4)  vs. Florida Internationl (6-6)

Vegas: Toledo by 1

Totals: 57

PiRate: Toledo by 3.3

Mean: Toledo by 2.8

Bias: Toledo by 16.8

100 Sims: Toledo 67  Florida International 33

Avg. Sim Score: Toledo 33.6  Florida International 25.7

Outlier A: Toledo 49  Florida International 19

Outlier B: Florida International 37  Toledo 24

 

Monday, December 27

Independence Bowl

Shreveport, LA

5:00 PM EST on ESPN

Air Force (8-4)  vs.  Georgia Tech (6-6)

Vegas: Air Force by 2 ½  

Totals: 56

PiRate: Georgia Tech by 1.7

Mean: Air Force by 5.2

Bias: Air Force by 5.9

100 Sims: Air Force 55  Georgia Tech 45

Avg. Sim Score: Air Force 29.2  Georgia Tech 26.9

Outlier A: Air Force 41  Georgia Tech 23

Outlier B: Georgia Tech 34  A Force 23

 

Tuesday, December 28

Champs Sports Bowl

Orlando, FL

6:30 PM EST on ESPN

West Virginia (9-3)  vs. North Carolina State (8-4)

Vegas: West Virginia by 2 ½

Totals: 49

PiRate: West Virginia by 6.8

Mean: West Virginia by 2.3

Bias: West Virginia by 3.0

100 Sims: West Virginia 53  North Carolina State 47 (6 games decided by OT)

Avg. Sim Score: West Virginia 25.8  North Carolina State 25.2

Outlier A: West Virginia 27  North Carolina State 10

Outlier B: North Carolina State 28  West Virginia 12

 

Insight Bowl

Tempe, AZ

10:00 PM EST

Missouri (10-2)  vs.  Iowa (7-5)

Vegas: Missouri by 2 ½

Totals: 46 ½

PiRate: Even

Mean: Missouri by 4.1

Bias: Missouri by 12.6

100 Sims: Missouri 58  Iowa 42

Avg. Sim Score: Missouri 25.6  Iowa 22.3

Outlier A: Missouri 31  Iowa 13

Outlier B: Iowa 21  Missouri 7

 

Wednesday, December 29

Military Bowl

Washington, D.C.

2:30 PM on EST

Maryland (8-4)  vs. East Carolina (6-6)

Vegas: Maryland by 7 ½

Totals: 68 ½

PiRate: Maryland by 18.4

Mean: Maryland by 11.2

Bias: Maryland by 13.8

100 Sims: East Carolina 51  Maryland 49

Avg. Sim Score: Maryland 34.4  East Carolina 34.1

Outlier A: East Carolina 47  Maryland 31

Outlier B: Maryland 42  East Carolina 20

 

Texas Bowl

Houston, TX

6:00 PM EST on ESPN

Baylor (7-5)  vs. Illinois (6-6)

Vegas: Baylor by 1

Totals: 62 ½

PiRate: Baylor by 2.4

Mean: Illinois by 1.6

Bias: Baylor by 6.9

100 Sims: Illinois 54  Baylor 46

Avg. Sim Score: Illinois 32.1  Baylor 28.6

Outlier A: Illinois 34  Baylor 17

Outlier B: Baylor 28  Illinois 18

 

Alamo Bowl

San Antonio, TX

9:15 PM EST on ESPN

Oklahoma State (10-2)  vs. Arizona (7-5)

Vegas: Oklahoma State by 5 ½

Totals: 66

PiRate: Oklahoma State by 1.1

Mean: Oklahoma State by 6.1

Bias: Oklahoma State by 9.6

100 Sims: Oklahoma State 61  Arizona 39

Avg. Sim Score: Oklahoma State 38.0  Arizona 29.1

Outlier A: Oklahoma State 51  Arizona 27

Outlier B: Arizona 34  Oklahoma State 28 (and one other 6-point spread)

 

Thursday, December 30

Armed Forces Bowl

Dallas, TX

12:00 Noon EST on ESPN

S M U (7-6)  vs. Army (6-6)

Vegas: S M U by 7

Totals: 52

PiRate: S M U by 7.7

Mean: S M U by 3.2

Bias: S M U by 10.6

100 Sims: S M U 64  Army 36

Avg. Sim Score: S M U 28.2  Army 20.6

Outlier A: S M U 34  Army 10

Outlier B: Army 24  S M U 16

 

Pinstripe Bowl

New York, NY

3:20 PM EST

Syracuse (7-5)  vs. Kansas State (7-5)

Vegas: Pick’em

Totals: 47 ½

PiRate: Syracuse by 1.5

Mean: Kansas State by 4.6

Bias: Syracuse by 2.3

100 Sims: Syracuse 53  Kansas State 47

Avg. Sim Score: Syracuse 20.1  Kansas State 18.6

Outlier A: Syracuse 24  Kansas State 7

Outlier B: Kansas State 17  Syracuse 3

 

Music City Bowl

Nashville, TN

6:30 PM EST

Tennessee (6-6)  vs. North Carolina (7-5)

Vegas: North Carolina by 1 ½  

Totals: 50 ½

PiRate: North Carolina by 6.8

Mean: North Carolina by 1.5

Bias: Tennessee by 6.6

100 Sims: Tennessee 50  North Carolina 50

Avg. Sim Score: Tennessee 24.5  North Carolina 23.9

Outlier A: Tennessee 30  North Carolina 14

Outlier B: North Carolina 27  Tennessee 12

 

Holiday Bowl

San Diego, CA

10:00 PM EST

Nebraska (10-3)  vs. Washington (6-6)

Vegas: Nebraska by 14

Totals: 52 ½

PiRate: Nebraska by 11.8

Mean: Nebraska by 11.5

Bias: Nebraska by 5.3

100 Sims: Nebraska 57  Washington 43

Avg. Sim Score: Nebraska 26.1  Washington 19.3

Outlier A: Nebraska 27  Washington 6

Outlier B: Washington 23  Nebraska 14

 

Friday, December 31

Meineke Car Care Bowl

Charlotte, NC

12:00 Noon EST

South Florida (7-5)  vs. Clemson (6-6)

Vegas: Clemson by 5 ½

Totals: 40 ½

PiRate: Clemson by 5.1

Mean: Clemson by 3.7

Bias: South Florida by 6.1

100 Sims: South Florida 58  Clemson 42

Avg. Sim Score: South Florida 25.1  Clemson 19.2

Outlier A: South Florida 31  Clemson 12

Outlier B: Clemson 28  South Florida 16

 

Sun Bowl

El Paso, TX

2:00 PM EST on CBS

Notre Dame (7-5)  vs. Miami (Fl) (7-5)

Vegas: Miami by 3

Totals: 47

PiRate: Miami by 6.3

Mean: Notre Dame by 1.2

Bias: Miami by 6.0

100 Sims: Notre Dame 52  Miami 48

Avg. Sim Score: Notre Dame 23.4  Miami 23.2

Outlier A: Notre Dame 30  Miami 14

Outlier B: Miami 35  Notre Dame 14

 

Liberty Bowl

Memphis, TN

3:30 PM EST on ESPN

Central Florida (10-3)  vs. Georgia (6-6)

Vegas: Georgia by 6 ½

Totals: 55 ½

PiRate: Georgia by 12.8

Mean: Georgia by 5.3

Bias: Georgia by 11.3

100 Sims: Georgia 72  Central Florida 28

Avg. Sim Score: Georgia 28.6  Central Florida 17.3

Outlier A: Georgia 38  Central Florida 10

Outlier B: Central Florida 24  Georgia 19

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl

Atlanta, GA

7:30 PM EST on ESPN

South Carolina (9-4)  vs. Florida State (9-4)

Vegas: South Carolina by 3

Totals: 55

PiRate: Florida State by 0.4

Mean: South Carolina by 0.5

Bias: Florida State by 1.6

100 Sims: Florida State 52  South Carolina 48

Avg. Sim Score: South Carolina 26.7  Florida State 26.6

Outlier A: Florida State 30  South Carolina 16

Outlier B: South Carolina 44  Florida State 17

 

Saturday, January 1

TicketCity Bowl

Dallas, TX

12:00 Noon EST on ESPN-U

Texas Tech (7-5)  vs. Northwestern (7-5)

Vegas: Texas Tech by 10

Totals: 60

PiRate: Texas Tech by 12.5

Mean: Texas Tech by 7.3

Bias: Texas Tech by 9.6

100 Sims: Texas Tech 86  Northwestern 14

Avg. Sim Score: Texas Tech 34.6  Northwestern 21.2

Outlier A: Texas Tech 45  Northwestern 17

Outlier B: Northwestern 30  Texas Tech 24 (3 other by 6)

 

Outback Bowl

Tampa, FL

1:00 PM EST on ABC

Florida (7-5) vs. Penn State (7-5)

Vegas: Florida by 7 ½  

Totals: 48

PiRate: Florida by 13.2

Mean: Florida by 5.1

Bias: Florida by 5.5

100 Sims: Florida 54  Penn State 46

Avg. Sim Score: Florida 22.6  Penn State 19.8

Outlier A: Florida 28  Penn State 13

Outlier B: Penn State 21  Florida 10

 

Capital One Bowl

Orlando, FL

1:00 PM EST on ESPN

Michigan State (11-1) vs.  Alabama (9-3)

Vegas: Alabama by 10

Totals: 52 ½

PiRate: Alabama by 15.5

Mean: Alabama by 10.4

Bias: Alabama by 3.2

100 Sims: Alabama 59  Michigan State 41

Avg. Sim Score: Alabama 27.6  Michigan State 24.7

Outlier A: Alabama 31  Michigan State 12

Outlier B: Michigan State 35  Alabama 25

 

Gator Bowl

Jacksonville, FL

1:30 PM EST on ESPN2

Mississippi State (8-4)  vs.  Michigan (7-5)

Vegas: Mississippi State by 5 ½

Totals: 61

PiRate: Mississippi State by 10.3

Mean: Mississippi State by 6.3

Bias: Mississippi State by 4.8

100 Sims: Mississippi State 52  Michigan 48

Avg. Sim Score: Mississippi State 33.7  Michigan 30.1

Outlier A: Mississippi State 38  Michigan 20

Outlier B: Michigan 36  Mississippi State 27

 

Rose Bowl

Pasadena, CA

5:00 PM EST on ESPN

T C U (12-0)  vs. Wisconsin (11-1)

Vegas: T C U by 3

Totals: 58 ½

PiRate: T C U by 7.9

Mean: T C U by 5.8

Bias: Wisconsin by 6.6

100 Sims: Wisconsin 54  T C U 46

Avg. Sim Score: Wisconsin 30.4  T C U 28.8

Outlier A: Wisconsin 40  T C U 24

Outlier B: T C U 34  Wisconsin 24

 

Fiesta Bowl

Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM EST

Oklahoma (11-2)  vs. Connecticut (8-4)

Vegas: Oklahoma by 16 1/2

Totals: 55

PiRate: Oklahoma by 19.7

Mean: Oklahoma by 16.2

Bias: Oklahoma by 20.7

100 Sims: Oklahoma 91  Connecticut 9

Avg. Sim Score: Oklahoma 35.3  Connecticut 14.8

Outlier A: Oklahoma 49  Connecticut 7

Outlier B: Connecticut 27  Oklahoma 23

December 6, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: Final Regular Season

Have To Wait A Day

Normally, we would post how well our picks fared against the spread, but we must wait one day because the Monday Night Football game is part of a parlay.  Check back tomorrow to see how we did.

 

NCAA PiRate Simulated Playoffs Return

In what has been one of our most popular pieces, the NCAA Football Simulated Playoffs will return later this week.  For those of you new to this blog, we have access to a powerful computer simulator that we have used in the past to simulate real games, such as the bowls and the NFL playoffs.  It has been surprisingly accurate, especially in picking Super Bowl scores.

 

Here is how the PiRate Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs work.  We choose to go with a 12-team playoff.  We take the winners of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and give them automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champions that finish in the top 16 of the BCS Standings also receive an automatic bid.  Then, at-large teams are selected based on BCS Standings until 12 teams have been selected.

 

Here are your 2010-11 NCAA Simulated Playoff Teams:

 

Automatic Qualifiers

ACC Champion: Virginia Tech

Big East Champion: Connecticut

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma

Pac-10 Champion: Oregon

SEC Champion: Auburn

 

Two other teams received automatic bids for winning (or finishing tied in) their conference and placing in the top 16 of the BCS Standings.

 

Mountain West Champion: T C U

WAC co-Champion: Boise State

 

This leaves four spaces for at-large teams.

 

At-large: Stanford

At-large: Ohio State

At-large: Arkansas

At-large: Michigan State

 

Now, the teams are seeded 1 to 12, and we use 11 bowls to play our playoffs.  Here are the seeds and brackets.

 

 1. Auburn

 2. Oregon

 3. T C U

 4. Stanford

 5. Wisconsin

 6. Ohio State

 7. Oklahoma

 8. Arkansas

 9. Michigan State

10. Boise State

11. Virginia Tech

12. Connecticut

 

Round One

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

 

Quarterfinal Round

Sugar Bowl: #1 Auburn vs. Outback Bowl Winner

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oregon vs. Insight Bowl Winner

Capital One Bowl: #3 T C U vs. Alamo Bowl Winer

Cotton Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. Chick-fil-A Bowl Winner

 

Semifinal Round

Orange Bowl: Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Cotton Bowl Winner

Rose Bowl: Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner

 

Simper Bowl

National Championship Game: Orange Bowl Winner vs. Rose Bowl Winner

 

Check back next Monday for Round One results.

 

The Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

The regular season does not officially end until this weekend when Army plays Navy at Philadelphia.  That game will not affect the standings, so we will issue our final regular season ratings today and issue the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the Army-Navy game.

 

NCAA Top 25 December 6, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 T C U 133.1 12 0
2 Oregon 132.5 12 0
3 Stanford 131.8 11 1
4 Auburn 131.0 13 0
5 Boise State 128.8 11 1
6 Ohio State 128.3 11 1
7 Oklahoma 127.7 11 2
8 Alabama 126.2 9 3
9 Wisconsin 125.2 11 1
10 Arkansas 124.7 10 2
11 Virginia Tech 124.2 11 2
12 Florida State 119.8 9 4
13 South Carolina 119.4 9 4
14 Nebraska 118.9 10 3
15 Texas A&M 118.5 9 3
16 L S U 117.7 10 2
17 West Virginia 117.0 9 3
18 Oklahoma State 116.3 10 2
19 Nevada 115.7 12 1
20 Georgia 115.7 6 6
21 Mississippi State 115.6 8 4
22 Florida 115.3 7 5
23 Missouri 115.2 10 2
24t Arizona 115.2 7 5
24t Iowa 115.2 7 5
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 6-2 9-4 119.8
Clemson 4-4 6-6 111.0
North Carolina State 5-3 8-4 110.2
Maryland 5-3 8-4 105.9
Boston College 4-4 7-5 105.0
Wake Forest 1-7 3-9 92.0
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 8-0 11-2 124.2
Miami-FL 5-3 7-5 115.2
North Carolina 4-4 7-5 114.8
Georgia Tech 4-4 6-6 108.5
Duke 1-7 3-9 95.9
Virginia 1-7 4-8 95.0

 

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 5-2 9-3 117.0
Pittsburgh 5-2 7-5 110.7
Connecticut 5-2 8-4 108.0
South Florida 3-4 7-5 106.9
Louisville 3-4 6-6 104.1
Cincinnati 2-5 4-8 100.7
Syracuse 4-3 7-5 100.0
Rutgers 1-6 4-8 89.5

 

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 7-1 11-1 128.3
Wisconsin 7-1 11-1 125.2
Iowa 4-4 7-5 115.2
Michigan State 7-1 11-1 110.7
Michigan 3-5 7-5 105.3
Penn State 4-4 7-5 104.6
Illinois 4-4 6-6 104.4
Minnesota 2-6 3-9 96.1
Northwestern 3-5 7-5 92.9
Purdue 2-6 4-8 91.1
Indiana 1-7 5-7 90.1

 

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 6-2 10-3 118.9
Missouri 6-2 10-2 115.2
Kansas State 3-5 7-5 100.0
Colorado 2-6 5-7 99.6
Iowa State 3-5 5-7 94.9
Kansas 1-7 3-9 88.2
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 6-2 11-2 127.7
Texas A&M 6-2 9-3 118.5
Oklahoma State 6-2 10-2 116.3
Texas 2-6 5-7 106.3
Baylor 4-4 7-5 105.3
Texas Tech 3-5 7-5 104.4

 

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 7-1 10-3 102.9
Southern Mississippi 5-3 8-4 98.4
East Carolina 5-3 6-6 90.0
U A B 3-5 4-8 86.3
Marshall 4-4 5-7 83.8
Memphis 0-8 1-11 70.7
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Tulsa 6-2 9-3 98.3
Houston 4-4 5-7 96.3
S M U 6-2 7-6 92.7
U T E P 3-5 6-6 86.0
Rice 3-5 4-8 84.5
Tulane 2-6 4-8 74.6

 

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   7-5 108.9
Navy   8-3 102.6
Army   6-5 88.2

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-3 8-4 92.6
Miami (O) 7-1 9-4 90.6
Ohio U 6-2 8-4 89.4
Kent St. 4-4 5-7 82.9
Bowling Green 1-7 2-10 75.0
Buffalo 1-7 2-10 70.2
Akron 1-7 1-11 67.7
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 8-0 10-3 104.1
Toledo 7-1 8-4 89.3
Western Michigan 5-3 6-6 88.8
Central Michigan 2-6 3-9 83.7
Ball State 3-5 4-8 73.9
Eastern Michigan 2-6 2-10 66.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 8-0 12-0 133.1
Utah 7-1 10-2 111.1
Air Force 5-3 8-4 106.8
B Y U 5-3 6-6 104.8
S. D. State 5-3 8-4 104.4
Wyoming 1-7 3-9 88.0
UNLV 2-6 2-11 80.4
Colo. State 2-6 3-9 79.8
New Mexico 1-7 1-11 75.2

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 9-0 12-0 132.5
Stanford 8-1 11-1 131.8
Arizona 4-5 7-5 115.2
Southern Cal 5-4 8-5 112.0
Arizona St. 4-5 6-6 111.0
Oregon St. 4-5 5-7 109.6
California 3-6 5-7 108.4
Washington 5-4 6-6 107.1
U C L A 2-7 4-8 101.8
Washington State 1-8 2-10 94.2

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 5-3 9-4 119.4
Georgia 3-5 6-6 115.7
Florida 4-4 7-5 115.3
Tennessee 3-5 6-6 106.0
Kentucky 2-6 6-6 105.9
Vanderbilt 1-7 2-10 86.8
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Auburn 8-0 13-0 131.0
Alabama 5-3 9-3 126.2
Arkansas 6-2 10-2 124.7
L S U 6-2 10-2 117.7
Mississippi State 4-4 8-4 115.6
Ole Miss 1-7 4-8 100.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida International 6-2 6-6 87.0
Arkansas State 4-4 4-8 83.9
Troy 6-2 7-5 85.8
Middle Tennessee 5-3 6-6 82.8
North Texas 3-5 3-9 79.7
Louisiana-Monroe 4-4 5-7 78.1
U. of Louisiana 3-5 3-9 77.6
Western Kentucky 2-6 2-10 75.1
Florida Atlantic 3-5 4-8 73.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 7-1 11-1 128.8
Nevada 7-1 12-1 115.9
Hawaii 7-1 10-3 108.9
Fresno State 5-3 8-4 98.2
Louisiana Tech 4-4 5-7 93.0
Idaho 3-5 6-7 88.1
Utah State 2-6 4-8 88.0
San Jose State 0-8 1-12 78.5
New Mexico State 1-7 2-10 71.9

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Saturday, December 11      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Navy Army (Philadelphia) 14.4 31-17

 

 

This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Saturday, December 11      
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Navy Army  (Philadelphia) 31-23 27-21

 

 

A Look At The Bowls

 

Here are the particulars for the 35 bowl matchups for this year. 

 

All Times Eastern Standard

 

Saturday, December 18

The New Mexico Bowl—Albuquerque, NM

2:00 PM  ESPN

B Y U  6-6  vs. U T E P  6-6

 

The Humanitarian Bowl—Boise, ID

5:30 PM  ESPN

Northern Illinois  10-3  vs. Fresno State  8-4

 

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl—New Orleans, LA

9:00 PM  ESPN

Troy  7-5  vs. Ohio U  8-4

 

Tuesday, December 21

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl—St. Petersburg, FL

8:00 PM  ESPN

Louisville  6-6  vs. Southern Mississippi  8-4

 

Wednesday, December 22

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl—Las Vegas, NV

8:00 PM  ESPN

Utah  10-2  vs. Boise State  11-1

Boise State substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

 

Thursday, December 23

San Diego Co. Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl—San Diego, CA

8:00 PM  ESPN

San Diego State  8-4  vs. Navy  8-3 (+ Army Game)

 

Friday, December 24

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl—Honolulu, HI

8:00 PM  ESPN

Hawaii  10-3  vs. Tulsa 9-3

 

Sunday, December 26

Little Caesar’s Bowl—Detroit, MI

8:30 PM  ESPN

Florida International  6-6  vs. Toledo  8-4

Florida International substitutes for a Big Ten Team

 

Monday, December 27

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl—Shreveport, LA

5:00 PM  ESPN-2

Georgia Tech  6-6  vs.  Air Force  8-4

 

Tuesday, December 28

Champs Sports Bowl—Orlando, FL

6:30 PM  ESPN

West Virginia  9-3  vs.  North Carolina St.  8-4

 

Insight Bowl—Tempe, AZ

10:00 PM  ESPN

Missouri  10-2  vs.  Iowa  7-5

 

Wednesday, December 29

Military Bowl—Washington, DC

2:30 PM  ESPN

Maryland  8-4  vs.  East Carolina  6-6

 

Texas Bowl—Houston, TX

6:00 PM  ESPN

Baylor  7-5  vs. Illinois  7-5

 

Valero Alamo Bowl—San Antonio, TX

9:15 PM  ESPN

Oklahoma State  10-2  vs.  Arizona  7-5

 

Thursday, December 30

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl—Ft. Worth, TX

12 Noon  ESPN

S M U  7-6  vs. Army  6-5 (+ Navy Game)

 

New Era Pinstripe Bowl—New York, NY

3:20 PM  ESPN

Syracuse  7-5  vs. Kansas State  7-5

 

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl—Nashville, TN

6:40 PM  ESPN

Tennessee  6-6  vs.  North Carolina  7-5

 

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl—San Diego, CA

10:00 PM  ESPN

Nebraska  10-3  vs.  Washington  6-6

 

Friday, December 31

Meineke Car Care Bowl—Charlotte, NC

12 Noon  ESPN

Clemson  6-6  vs.  South Florida  7-5

 

Hyundai Sun Bowl—El Paso, TX

2:00 PM  CBS

Miami (FL)  7-5  vs. Notre Dame  7-5

Notre Dame Substitutes for Pac-10 Team

 

AutoZone Liberty Bowl—Memphis, TN

3:30 PM  ESPN

Georgia  6-6  vs.  Central Florida  10-3

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl—Atlanta, GA

7:30 PM  ESPN

South Carolina  9-4  vs. Florida State  9-4

 

Saturday, January 1

Ticket City Bowl—Dallas, TX

12 Noon  ESPN-U

Northwestern  6-6  vs.  Texas Tech  7-5

 

Outback Bowl—Tampa, FL

1:00 PM  ABC

Florida  7-5  vs.  Penn State  7-5

 

Capital One Bowl—Orlando, FL

1:00 PM  ESPN

Michigan State  11-1  vs.  Alabama  9-3

 

Gator Bowl—Jacksonville, FL

1:30 PM  ESPN-2

Michigan  7-5  vs.  Mississippi State  8-4

 

Rose Bowl—Pasadena, CA

5:00 PM  ESPN

T C U  12-0  vs.  Wisconsin  11-1

 

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM  ESPN

Oklahoma  11-2  vs. Connecticut  8-4

 

Monday, January 3

Discover Orange Bowl—Miami, FL

8:30 PM  ESPN

Virginia Tech  11-2  vs. Stanford  11-1

 

Tuesday, January 4

All-State Sugar Bowl—New Orleans, LA

8:30 PM  ESPN

Arkansas  10-2  vs. Ohio State  11-1

 

Thursday, January 6

GoDaddy.com Bowl—Mobile, AL

8:00 PM  ESPN

Middle Tennessee State  6-6  vs.  Miami (OH)  9-4

 

Friday, January 7

AT&T Cotton Bowl—Arlington, TX

8:00 PM  Fox

Texas A&M  9-3  vs. L S U  10-2

 

Saturday, January 8

BBVA Compass Bowl—Birmingham, AL

12 Noon  ESPN

Pittsburgh  7-5  vs. Kentucky  6-6

 

Sunday, January 9

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl—San Francisco, CA

9:00 PM  ESPN

Boston College  7-5  vs.  Nevada  12-1

Boston College Substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

 

Monday, January 10

National Championship Game—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM  ESPN

Auburn  13-0  vs.  Oregon  12-0

November 28, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: December 2-4, 2010

PiRate Ratings Go Perfect 3-0

After suffering through our first losing week of the season last week when we finished 2-2-1, we decided to go with three, 13-point sweetheart teasers.  We won all three.  We went back to what was working and found three gems.  Let’s take a look at the three selections we made for our customers.

1. Texas A&M +10 vs. Texas, West Virginia +16 vs. Pittsburgh, South Florida +25 vs. Miami, and Tennessee +10 vs. Kentucky

WON

We went with a theme in these picks.  We had three rivalry games where we believed all three offered us a chance to take a rival with an edge over their opponent.

Texas A&M was on a roll, having disposed of both Oklahoma and Nebraska, while Texas was going the opposite direction.  We thought the Aggies would win outright and took 10 points insurance.

We also believed that West Virginia had a slight edge over Pittsburgh in the Backyard Brawl.  Getting 16 points felt like a huge gift.  When we issued our selections last Wednesday afternoon, we told our customers that we thought the Mountaineers would be playing for Coach Bill Stewart’s job.  Ironically, when WVU won, it may have sealed Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt’s fate.  Stewart appears to be set to retire any way.

As for the Tennessee game, we knew the Vols were playing for bowl eligibility, and they had defeated Kentucky every year since 1984.  Getting 10 points at home was yet another gift.

2. Wake Forest +19 vs. Vanderbilt, Minnesota +28 ½ vs. Iowa, Boston College +16 vs. Syracuse, and Kansas +38 vs. Missouri

WON

In this teaser, we went with underdogs that we felt would have a good chance to beat the regular spread but would most definitely cover with an extra 13 points.

We told our customers that we believed that Vanderbilt could not beat any FBS team by 19 points at this point in the season, and that the Demon Deacons stood a better than 50-50 chance of winning outright.  We believed that the Gophers would keep the game with Iowa close and have a chance to win Floyd of Rosedale back.  Iowa had little desire after losing close games to fall out of the Big Ten race.

Our key pick this week was the Boston College selection at +16, because we figured that Syracuse would not top 14 points.  We had to sweat out the Kansas-Missouri game, but the Jayhawks just covered.

3. Dallas Cowboys +17 vs. New Orleans Saints, Buffalo Bills +19 ½ vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars +20 vs. New York Giants, and Chicago Bears +16 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

WON

We went with underdogs in our NFL pick, which has been our most reliable strategy all season.  Too much parity means lower spreads and more underdogs covering and winning outright.  All four of these games were never in doubt.

Championship Week

Five conferences crown their conference champion by way of a championship game this week.  Here is a little primer of those games.

Friday, December 3

The Mid-American Conference Championship Game at Ford Field in Detroit

6:00 PM EST on ESPN2

Northern Illinois 10-2 vs. Miami (Ohio) 8-4

Saturday, December 4

The Conference USA Championship Game at Bright House Networks Stadium in Orlando

12 Noon EST on ESPN

S M U 7-5 at Central Florida 9-3

———————————————————————————————————————————–

Southeastern Conference Championship Game at The Georgia Dome in Atlanta

3:00 PM EST on CBS

Auburn 12-0 vs. South Carolina 9-3

—————————————————————————————————————————-

The Atlantic Coast Conference Championship at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte

6:45 PM EST on ESPN

Virginia Tech 10-2 vs. Florida State 9-3

—————————————————————————————————————————–

The Big 12 Conference Championship at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas

7:00 PM EST on ABC

Oklahoma 10-2 vs. Nebraska 10-2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NCAA Top 25 November 29, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 T C U 133.1 12 0
2 Oregon 131.9 11 0
3 Stanford 131.8 11 1
4 Boise State 130.6 10 1
5 Ohio State 128.3 11 1
6 Auburn 127.5 12 0
7 Oklahoma 127.1 10 2
8 Alabama 126.2 9 3
9 Wisconsin 125.2 11 1
10 Arkansas 124.7 10 2
11 Virginia Tech 123.1 10 2
12 South Carolina 122.9 9 3
13 Florida State 120.9 9 3
14 Nebraska 119.5 10 2
15 Texas A&M 118.5 9 3
16 L S U 117.7 10 2
17 West Virginia 116.8 8 3
18 Oklahoma State 116.3 10 2
19 Arizona 116.3 7 4
20 Georgia 115.7 6 6
21 Mississippi State 115.6 8 4
22 Nevada 115.3 11 1
23 Florida 115.3 7 5
24 Missouri 115.2 10 2
25 Iowa 115.2 7 5
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points
 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 6-2 9-3 120.9
Clemson 4-4 6-6 111.0
North Carolina State 5-3 8-4 110.2
Maryland 5-3 8-4 105.9
Boston College 4-4 7-5 105.0
Wake Forest 1-7 3-9 92.0
Coastal Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 8-0 10-2 123.1
Miami-FL 5-3 7-5 115.2
North Carolina 4-4 7-5 114.8
Georgia Tech 4-4 6-6 108.5
Duke 1-7 3-9 95.9
Virginia 1-7 4-8 95.0
 

Big East Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 4-2 8-3 116.8
Pittsburgh 4-2 6-5 108.6
Connecticut 4-2 7-4 107.6
South Florida 3-3 7-4 107.3
Louisville 3-4 6-6 104.1
Cincinnati 2-4 4-7 102.8
Syracuse 4-3 7-5 100.0
Rutgers 1-5 4-7 89.7
 

Big Ten

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 7-1 11-1 128.3
Wisconsin 7-1 11-1 125.2
Iowa 4-4 7-5 115.2
Michigan State 7-1 11-1 110.7
Michigan 3-5 7-5 105.3
Illinois 4-4 6-5 105.1
Penn State 4-4 7-5 104.6
Minnesota 2-6 3-9 96.1
Northwestern 3-5 7-5 92.9
Purdue 2-6 4-8 91.1
Indiana 1-7 5-7 90.1
 

Big 12

North Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 6-2 10-2 119.5
Missouri 6-2 10-2 115.2
Kansas State 3-5 7-5 100.0
Colorado 2-6 5-7 99.6
Iowa State 3-5 5-7 94.9
Kansas 1-7 3-9 88.2
South Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 6-2 10-2 127.1
Texas A&M 6-2 9-3 118.5
Oklahoma State 6-2 10-2 116.3
Texas 2-6 5-7 106.3
Baylor 4-4 7-5 105.3
Texas Tech 3-5 7-5 104.4
 

Conference USA

East Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 7-1 9-3 103.2
Southern Mississippi 5-3 8-4 98.4
East Carolina 5-3 6-6 90.0
U A B 3-5 4-8 86.3
Marshall 4-4 5-7 83.8
Memphis 0-8 1-11 70.7
West Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Tulsa 6-2 9-3 98.3
Houston 4-4 5-7 96.3
S M U 6-2 7-5 92.4
U T E P 3-5 6-6 86.0
Rice 3-5 4-8 84.5
Tulane 2-6 4-8 74.6
 

Independents

Team Overall Rating
Notre Dame 7-5 108.9
Navy 8-3 102.6
Army 6-5 88.2
 

Mid American Conference

East Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-3 8-4 92.6
Ohio U 6-2 8-4 89.4
Miami (O) 7-1 8-4 87.8
Kent St. 4-4 5-7 82.9
Bowling Green 1-7 2-10 75.0
Buffalo 1-7 2-10 70.2
Akron 1-7 1-11 67.7
West Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 8-0 10-2 106.9
Toledo 7-1 8-4 89.3
Western Michigan 5-3 6-6 88.8
Central Michigan 2-6 3-9 83.7
Ball State 3-5 4-8 73.9
Eastern Michigan 2-6 2-10 66.9
 

Mountain West Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 8-0 12-0 133.1
Utah 7-1 10-2 111.1
Air Force 5-3 8-4 106.8
B Y U 5-3 6-6 104.8
S. D. State 5-3 8-4 104.4
Wyoming 1-7 3-9 88.0
UNLV 2-6 2-10 82.5
Colo. State 2-6 3-9 79.8
New Mexico 1-7 1-11 75.2
 

Pac-10 Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 8-0 11-0 131.9
Stanford 8-1 11-1 131.8
Arizona 4-4 7-4 116.3
Southern Cal 4-4 7-5 111.0
Oregon St. 4-4 5-6 110.2
Arizona St. 3-5 5-6 109.9
California 3-6 5-7 108.4
Washington 4-4 5-6 106.9
U C L A 2-6 4-7 102.8
Washington State 1-7 2-9 94.4
 

Southeastern Conference

East Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 5-3 9-3 122.9
Georgia 3-5 6-6 115.7
Florida 4-4 7-5 115.3
Tennessee 3-5 6-6 106.0
Kentucky 2-6 6-6 105.9
Vanderbilt 1-7 2-10 86.8
West Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Auburn 8-0 12-0 127.5
Alabama 5-3 9-3 126.2
Arkansas 6-2 10-2 124.7
L S U 6-2 10-2 117.7
Mississippi State 4-4 8-4 115.6
Ole Miss 1-7 4-8 100.1
 

Sunbelt Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida International 6-1 6-5 88.4
Arkansas State 4-4 4-8 83.9
Troy 5-2 6-5 82.8
Middle Tennessee 4-3 5-6 81.4
North Texas 3-5 3-9 79.7
Louisiana-Monroe 4-4 5-7 78.1
U. of Louisiana 3-5 3-9 77.6
Florida Atlantic 3-4 4-7 76.7
Western Kentucky 2-6 2-10 75.1
 

Western Athletic Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 6-1 10-1 130.6
Nevada 6-1 11-1 115.3
Hawaii 7-1 9-3 106.8
Fresno State 5-3 7-4 97.5
Louisiana Tech 4-3 5-6 93.6
Idaho 2-5 5-7 89.3
Utah State 2-5 4-7 86.2
San Jose State 0-7 1-11 77.3
New Mexico State 1-7 2-10 71.9
 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Thursday, December 2
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
ARIZONA Arizona St. 8.9 31-22
Friday, December 3
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Illinois FRESNO STATE 4.1 31-27
Northern Illinois Miami (O)   (Detroit) 19.1 42-23
Saturday, December 4
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Southern Cal U C L A 6.2 34-28
SOUTH FLORIDA Connecticut 2.7 20-17
Oregon OREGON STATE 18.7 45-26
Washington WASHINGTON STATE 10.0 31-21
WEST VIRGINIA Rutgers 30.1 42-12
Pittsburgh CINCINNATI 2.8 24-21
FLORIDA INT’L Middle Tennessee 10.0 34-24
Troy FLORIDA ATLANTIC 3.1 30-27
BOISE STATE Utah State 47.4 61-14
Nevada LOUISIANA TECH 18.2 35-17
IDAHO San Jose State 14.5 38-23
HAWAII U n l v 28.3 49-21
Auburn South Carolina (Atlanta) 4.6 35-30
Virginia Tech Florida State (Charlotte) 2.2 25-23
CENTRAL FLORIDA S m u 13.8 35-21
Oklahoma Nebraska (Dallas) 7.6 21-13
 

This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Thursday, December 2
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
ARIZONA Arizona St. 31-21 27-24
Friday, December 3
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Illinois FRESNO STATE 34-31 34-27
Northern Illinois Miami (O)  (Detroit) 35-24 41-20
Saturday, December 4
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Southern Cal U C L A 31-21 30-21
SOUTH FLORIDA Connecticut 27-24 27-23
Oregon OREGON STATE 49-26 51-19
Washington WASHINGTON STATE 35-27 35-20
WEST VIRGINIA Rutgers 34-14 34-14
Pittsburgh CINCINNATI 26-21 24-16
FLORIDA INT’L Middle Tennessee 34-22 28-26
Troy FLORIDA ATLANTIC 31-24 34-28
BOISE STATE Utah State 56-20 59-17
Nevada LOUISIANA TECH 37-17 35-31
IDAHO San Jose State 42-24 45-28
HAWAII U n l v 49-20 48-14
Auburn South Carolina (Atlanta) 38-24 34-24
Virginia Tech Florida State  (Charlotte) 26-25 27-19
CENTRAL FLORIDA S m u 34-26 35-30
Oklahoma Nebraska  (Dallas) 21-16 22-20
 

Bowl Projections

Bowl

Conference Team Conference Team
New Mexico MWC #4 or (5) B Y U 6-6 WAC (#3?) Fresno St. 7-5
Humanitarian MAC #3 Miami (O) 8-5 WAC #(1) or 2 Boise St. 11-1
New Orleans Sunbelt #(1) or 2 Fla. Int’l 7-5 C-USA #5 UTEP 6-6
Beef O’Brady’s Big East #6 Connecticut 7-5 C-USA #4-6 Southern Miss 8-4
MAACO MWC #1 Utah 10-2 Pac 10 #5 [Ga. Tech 6-6]
Poinsettia MWC #2 S. D. State 8-4 Navy or WAC NAVY 9-3
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3/4 HAWAII 10-3 C-USA #2-6 Tulsa 9-3
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8/SBC [Louisville 6-6] MAC #1-2 N. Illinois 11-2
Independence ACC #7 Clemson 6-6 MWC #3 Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports Big East #2 Notre Dame 7-5 ACC #3 N. C. State 8-4
Insight Big 12 #4 Missouri 10-2 Big 10 #4 or 5 Michigan 7-5
Military ACC #8 Boston Coll. 7-5 C-USA #6 E C U 6-6
Texas Big 12 #6-7 Texas Tech 7-5 Big 10 #6-7 Penn State 7-5
Alamo Big 12 #3 Oklahoma St. 10-2 Pac 10 #2 Arizona 8-4
Armed Forces C-USA #3-4 S M U 7-6 MWC #3-5/Army Army 6-6
Pinstripe Big East #3-4 Syracuse 7-5 Big 12 #6-7 Baylor 7-5
Music City SEC # 7 Tennessee 6-6 ACC #6 Maryland 8-4
Holiday Big 12 #5 Texas A&M 9-3 Pac 10 #3 Washington 6-6
Meineke Car Care ACC #4-5 N. Carolina 8-4 Big East #3-4 S. Florida 7-5
Sun ACC #4 or 5 Miami (FL) 7-5 Pac 10 #4 [Ohio U 8-4]
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 Georgia 6-6 C-USA #1 Central Fla. 10-3
Chick-fil-A SEC #3-6 Miss. State 8-4 ACC #2 Florida State 9-4
Ticket City Big 10 #6-7 Northwestern 7-5 Big 12 #8/CUSA Kansas St. 7-5
Outback SEC #3-6 E S. Carolina 9-4 Big 10 #3 Iowa 7-5
Capital One Big 10 #2 Michigan St. 11-1 SEC #2 L S U 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Illinois 7-5 SEC #6 Florida 7-5
Rose BCS Pac10 T C U 12-0 BCS Big 10 Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Oklahoma 11-2 BCS At-Large Stanford 11-1
Orange BCS ACC Va. Tech 11-2 BCS At-Large West Va. 9-3
Sugar BCS SEC Ohio State 11-1 BCS At-Large Arkansas 10-2
GoDaddy.com Sunbelt # 2 Troy 7-5 MAC #1 or 2 Toledo 8-4
Cotton Big 12 #2 Nebraska 10-3 SEC #3-6 W Alabama 9-3
BBVA Compass Big East #5 Pittsburgh 7-5 SEC #8 or 9 Kentucky 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 [Temple 8-4] WAC #1 Nevada 11-1
Championship Game *** BCS #1 *** Oregon 12-0 *** BCS #2 *** Auburn 13-0
Teams in ALL CAPS and Italicized have already accepted a bid to this bowl
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large invitees because a conference cannot supply a qualified team

November 22, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 23-27, 2010

The Winning Streak Comes To An End

It had to happen.  We knew we could not go through the entire season with one winning week after another.  Our luck ran dry this weekend.  Our picks went 2-2-1 against the spread, which in our terms, is a losing week, since you lay 10-11 odds when picking straight sides.

 

Perhaps we should not have deviated from our sweetheart teaser picks, but we liked the five games we selected.  Let’s quickly reveal our picks so we can move on and talk college football

 

1. Tennessee -9 vs. Vanderbilt

WON

Okay, if you are one of our regular subscribers to our handicapping service, maybe you did enjoy a winning week.  For, we told you that we felt that the Vols had a 99% chance of covering at -9.  If you decided to make this your only pick, then you went 1-0.

 

Vanderbilt has run out of gas, while Tennessee is on their annual November roll.  The final score was only 24-10, and we had to sweat out a late Vandy run with backup quarterback Jared Funk.

 

2. Ohio State -3 vs. Iowa

Push

This game surprised us a bit.  We felt as if the Buckeyes were ready to pull off a two touchdown win, and when the offense struggled early, we were concerned.  Ohio State is not as strong as they were supposed to be, and they should not have gained ground on Wisconsin in the BCS standings. 

 

3. Texas A&M + 2 ½ vs. Nebraska

WON

Please don’t let Bo Pelini hear this.  We told our subscribers that we had a sneaky suspicion that Nebraska would see a lot of questionable officiating calls go against them in this game, just like it happened against Texas.  The national media has to put on a good face, but we could care less about stepping on toes of the Big 12 Conference.  We warned our fans on Thursday that we suspected this would happen.  The game was considered a tossup, so we felt A&M would win by a touchdown.  It was only by a field goal, but we won any way.

 

4. Cleveland Browns + 1 ½ vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Lost

The Browns’ short flirtation with respectability has gone back into hibernation.  We blew this one royally, thinking the boys from Lake Erie would win by 7-10 points.

 

5. San Francisco 49ers + 3 ½ vs. Tampa Bay Bucaneers

Lost

Tampa Bay has proven they are playoff worthy.  San Francisco’s offensive woes continue, and yet they are still in contention in the worst division in the history of NFL football.

 

A Look At The FBS Conference Races and Bowls

There are 35 bowls this year.  Thus, 70 teams need to be bowl eligible.  With two weeks to go in the season, only 64 teams are bowl eligible.  It is a sure thing that at least one or two others will gain bowl eligibility due to the schedule.  What happens if the magic number falls short of 70?  Will the NCAA allow 5-7 teams into the bowls?  Who would want to see a 5-7 and 6-6 team face off in a loser bowl?

 

A 12-team playoff, using the top 11 bowls would leave 24 bowls for the rest of the NCAA.  This would not be a problem.  The bowl that might end up with a 5-7 team would end up with a 7-5 or 8-4 team under a 12-team playoff.

 

The PiRate Ratings have conducted simulated NCAA football playoffs the past two seasons, and we will do so again after the end of the regular season.

 

Let’s look at each conference as it stands today.

 

A C C

Virginia Tech has sewn up the Coastal Division Championship.  They will face either North Carolina State or Florida State.  If N.C. State beats Maryland, they win the division title.  If Maryland wins, Florida State goes to the ACC title game.

 

Nine teams are already bowl eligible, and the conference has eight bowl tie-ins.  Expect all nine teams to land in bowls.

 

 

Big East

No team in this league belongs in a BCS bowl game.  TCU and Boise State are 21 points better than the best team in the Big East.  The cold hard fact is that the winner of this conference will be the last team chosen in the BCS Bowl picks—the Fiesta Bowl. 

 

Pittsburgh has a one game lead over West Virginia and Connecticut.  They would lose a three-way tiebreaker if the three finished 5-2.

 

Connecticut, South Florida, and Syracuse are bowl eligible.  Louisville is one win away, while Cincinnati and Rutgers are still in contention at 4-6.  We think UL will get that sixth win this week against Rutgers, while Cincinnati falls short.  Throw in Notre Dame, which will finish no worse than 6-6, and there will be enough teams to satisfy the league’s allotment.

 

 

 

Big Ten

Three teams are in contention for the Rose Bowl with one week to go.  Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State are tied at 6-1.  If they all win this week, the highest ranked team in the BCS rankings will get the Rose Bowl bid.  Wisconsin holds a marginal lead over Ohio State.  The Badgers face Northwestern, while the Buckeyes host Michigan.  It will be a close vote if both win.  Michigan State wins a tiebreaker with Wisconsin, while Wisconsin wins a tiebreaker with Ohio State.  If Ohio State and Michigan State finish tied at 7-1, the Buckeyes will be the higher ranked team in the BCS and go to the Rose Bowl.

 

Eight teams are bowl eligible, and there is a decent chance that a second team will get a BCS at-large bid.  That would make nine bowl openings for eight teams, and the need for an at-large representative for the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl.

 

 

 

Big 12

The Big 12 is out of the national championship picture this year.  Nebraska will win the North Division with a win over Colorado or a Missouri loss to Kansas.  Oklahoma State needs to beat Oklahoma to wrap up the South Division, but the Sooners could easily win this game.  If Texas A&M beats Texas, and Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, it will take five steps into the conference’s tiebreaker rules to determine the representative for the Big 12 Championship Game.  Oklahoma would hold the leg up over the other two.

 

Colorado and Texas need wins to gain bowl eligibility, but it is our opinion that both will lose their finales and miss out.  That will leave eight bowl eligible teams for eight bowls.

 

 

 

Conference USA

In the East, Central Florida is as close to in the league title game as a team can be and not already have it clinched.  UCF only needs to beat hapless Memphis to secure the division flag.  It is a certainty.

 

In the West, SMU controls its own destiny.  However, the Mustangs play at East Carolina this week.  We believe the Pirates will win.  That means Tulsa would capture the flag with a win over Southern Miss.  We will give the Golden Hurricane the edge.

 

Houston needs a win at Texas Tech to gain bowl eligibility, but the Cougars are wounded without their top two quarterbacks.  No bowl for Houston this year.

 

 

 

Independents

Navy is bowl eligible, and the Midshipmen have already accepted a bid to the Poinsettia Bowl.  Army is also bowl eligible, and they will get an at-large selection somewhere.  Notre Dame is bowl eligible, and they will either receive one of the Big East bowl bids or an at-large bid.

 

 

Mid-American

As usual, there are always more bowl eligible teams than bowl bids for the MAC.  Ohio, Temple, and Miami (O) from the East and Northern Illinois and Toledo from the West are bowl eligible.  Western Michigan will become bowl eligible with a win at Bowling Green.  That will leave six teams available for three bids.  Expect five of the six to go bowling.

 

 

Mountain West Conference

TCU’s blowout win over New Mexico this week will give the Horned Frogs their second consecutive undefeated regular season finish and at-large selection to a BCS Bowl.  There is a small chance that they could play for the National Championship.  Their BCS ranking will drop by playing the 1-10 Lobos, while Boise State finished on the road against a ranked team.

 

Five teams are bowl eligible, and all five will go to bowls.  That will leave one bowl spot open for an at-large invitee—the New Mexico Bowl.

 

 

 

Pac-10

This is the messy conference.  To start out, Southern Cal is ineligible for a bowl.  Throw in the chance that Stanford will receive an at-large BCS Bowl bid.  Now, top it off with the fact that Arizona is the only other bowl eligible team at this point.  California, Oregon State, UCLA, Washington, and Arizona State are still alive in the bowl eligibility race, but we believe only one of these five will do it.  That means this league could fall three bids short.

 

 

 

Southeastern

“As the Cam Turns” is the top-rated soap opera in the South during November sweeps.  It just may turn south on Auburn this week.  We think Alabama is going to end the Tigers’ championship hopes this week.  We cannot see any scenario where Auburn would jump Boise State and TCU after losing this late in the season.  It is no gimme that the Tigers can beat South Carolina twice in one season.

 

LSU can grab an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl with a win at Arkansas, but we believe the Razorbacks will put an end to those aspirations.

 

Georgia and Tennessee need victories this week to gain bowl eligibility.  We think both will be victorious.  That will leave 10 bowl eligible teams for nine bowls and an at-large bid.

 

 

 

 

Sunbelt

Somebody has to win this league.  With two weeks left in the season, one for UL-Monroe, no team has earned bowl eligibility.  The schedule guarantees that at least one team will become bowl eligible, and we think at least two will pick up a sixth win.  For a change, Troy may not win the conference championship.

 

 

 

Western Athletic

Boise State has a tough finale at Nevada this week, but we do not believe the boys from Reno have a strong enough defense to slow down the Broncos.  Boise State is our top-rated team, and we feel like they would be a field goal choice over Oregon in a national title game.  A win at Nevada should allow the Broncos to jump over TCU in the BCS standings, and if Auburn loses to Alabama, it should put BSU into the number two slot.

 

Louisiana Tech and Idaho still have remote chances at bowl eligibility, but we think both will fall one game short.  With BSU getting a BCS Bowl bid, the WAC will fall one team short in its bowl obligations. 

 

The Pi-Rate Ratings

NCAA Top 25 November 22, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Boise State 134.6 10 0
2 T C U 132.9 11 0
3 Oregon 132.1 10 0
4 Stanford 129.7 10 1
5 Alabama 127.5 9 2
6 Ohio State 127.1 10 1
7 Oklahoma 127.0 9 2
8 Auburn 126.2 11 0
9 Arkansas 124.4 9 2
10 Virginia Tech 122.8 9 2
11 Wisconsin 122.7 10 1
12 South Carolina 121.1 8 3
13 Texas A&M 118.8 8 3
14 Nebraska 118.8 9 2
15 Florida State 118.2 8 3
16 L S U 118.0 10 1
17t Florida 118.0 7 4
17t Miami (Fla) 118.0 7 4
19 Iowa 117.3 7 4
20 Oklahoma State 116.4 10 1
21 Arizona 116.1 7 3
22 North Carolina 115.6 6 5
23 Georgia 115.5 5 6
24 Missouri 114.9 9 2
25 Mississippi State 114.8 7 4
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 6-2 8-3 118.2
Clemson 4-4 6-5 112.8
North Carolina State 5-2 8-3 111.4
Maryland 4-3 7-4 104.7
Boston College 4-4 6-5 103.9
Wake Forest 1-7 2-9 89.9
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 7-0 9-2 122.8
Miami-FL 5-3 7-4 118.0
North Carolina 3-4 6-5 115.6
Georgia Tech 4-4 6-5 108.7
Virginia 1-6 4-7 95.3
Duke 1-6 3-8 95.1

 

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 3-2 7-3 114.6
Pittsburgh 4-1 6-4 110.8
Connecticut 3-2 6-4 106.4
South Florida 3-3 6-4 104.5
Cincinnati 2-3 4-6 104.0
Louisville 2-4 5-6 102.7
Syracuse 4-3 7-4 101.1
Rutgers 1-4 4-6 91.1

 

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 6-1 10-1 127.1
Wisconsin 6-1 10-1 122.7
Iowa 4-3 7-4 117.3
Michigan State 6-1 10-1 110.2
Michigan 3-4 7-4 106.5
Penn State 4-3 7-4 105.1
Illinois 4-4 6-5 105.1
Northwestern 3-4 7-4 95.4
Minnesota 1-6 2-9 94.0
Purdue 2-5 4-7 92.5
Indiana 0-7 4-7 88.7

 

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 5-2 9-2 118.8
Missouri 5-2 9-2 114.9
Kansas State 3-5 6-5 100.7
Colorado 2-5 5-6 100.3
Iowa State 3-5 5-7 94.9
Kansas 1-6 3-8 88.5
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 5-2 9-2 127.0
Texas A&M 5-2 8-3 118.8
Oklahoma State 6-1 10-1 116.4
Texas 2-5 5-6 106.0
Baylor 4-4 7-5 105.3
Texas Tech 3-5 6-5 104.2

 

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 6-1 8-3 104.8
Southern Mississippi 5-2 8-3 98.6
East Carolina 5-2 6-5 90.2
U A B 3-4 4-7 86.8
Marshall 3-4 4-7 83.6
Memphis 0-7 1-10 69.1
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Tulsa 5-2 8-3 98.1
Houston 4-4 5-6 96.5
S M U 5-2 6-5 92.2
U T E P 3-5 6-6 86.0
Rice 2-5 3-8 84.0
Tulane 2-5 4-7 74.8

 

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   6-5 107.0
Navy   8-3 102.6
Army   6-5 88.2

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-2 8-3 95.2
Ohio U 6-1 8-3 91.7
Miami (O) 6-1 7-4 85.2
Kent St. 3-4 4-7 80.6
Bowling Green 1-6 2-9 77.1
Buffalo 1-6 2-9 71.5
Akron 0-7 0-11 66.4
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 7-0 9-2 103.9
Toledo 6-1 7-4 88.5
Western Michigan 4-3 5-6 86.7
Central Michigan 2-5 3-8 84.5
Ball State 3-5 4-8 73.9
Eastern Michigan 2-5 2-9 69.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 7-0 11-0 132.9
Utah 6-1 9-2 111.7
Air Force 5-3 8-4 106.8
B Y U 5-2 6-5 104.2
S. D. State 4-3 7-4 102.4
Wyoming 1-7 3-9 88.0
UNLV 2-5 2-9 84.5
Colo. State 2-6 3-9 79.8
New Mexico 1-6 1-10 75.4

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 7-0 10-0 132.1
Stanford 7-1 10-1 129.7
Arizona 4-3 7-3 116.1
Southern Cal 4-4 7-4 112.9
Oregon St. 4-3 5-5 112.3
California 3-5 5-6 110.2
Arizona St. 2-5 4-6 109.2
Washington 3-4 4-6 105.1
U C L A 2-5 4-6 103.5
Washington State 1-7 2-9 94.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 5-3 8-3 121.1
Florida 4-4 7-4 118.0
Georgia 3-5 5-6 115.5
Kentucky 2-5 6-5 106.9
Tennessee 2-5 5-6 105.0
Vanderbilt 1-7 2-9 88.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 5-2 9-2 127.5
Auburn 7-0 11-0 126.2
Arkansas 5-2 9-2 124.4
L S U 6-1 10-1 118.0
Mississippi State 3-4 7-4 114.8
Ole Miss 1-6 4-7 100.9

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida International 5-1 5-5 88.1
Arkansas State 4-3 4-7 84.2
Troy 4-2 5-5 82.2
Middle Tennessee 3-3 4-6 79.9
North Texas 3-5 3-8 79.0
Louisiana-Monroe 4-3 5-6 78.9
Florida Atlantic 3-3 4-6 78.2
U. of Louisiana 2-5 2-9 76.8
Western Kentucky 2-5 2-9 75.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 6-0 10-0 134.6
Nevada 5-1 10-1 111.3
Hawaii 6-1 8-3 106.2
Fresno State 4-3 6-4 97.7
Louisiana Tech 3-3 4-6 94.0
Idaho 2-4 5-6 89.1
Utah State 2-5 4-7 86.2
San Jose State 0-6 1-10 76.9
New Mexico State 1-6 2-9 72.5

 

 

 
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 23      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Temple MIAMI (O) 7.0 28-21
       
Thursday, November 25      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Texas A&M TEXAS 10.3 24-14
       
Friday, November 26      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Louisville RUTGERS 8.6 28-19
Western Michigan BOWLING GREEN 6.6 27-20
West Virginia PITTSBURGH 1.3 21-20
ALABAMA Auburn 3.8 31-27
Buffalo AKRON 2.6 24-21
TOLEDO Central Michigan 7.0 38-31
Northern Illinois EASTERN MICHIGAN 31.5 45-13
EAST CAROLINA S m u 1.0 35-34
Ohio U KENT STATE 8.6 30-21
ARIZONA STATE U c l a 8.7 26-17
NEBRASKA Colorado 21.5 28-6
TULSA Southern Miss. 2.5 38-35
OREGON Arizona 19.5 44-24
Boise State NEVADA 26.3 46-20
       
Saturday, November 27      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
ARKANSAS L s u 9.4 35-26
STANFORD Oregon State 20.4 37-17
CONNECTICUT Cincinnati 5.4 26-21
FLORIDA STATE Florida 2.7 27-24
GEORGIA Georgia Tech 9.3 33-24
North Carolina St. MARYLAND 3.7 24-20
Iowa MINNESOTA 20.3 37-17
Mississippi State OLE MISS 11.4 28-17
North Carolina DUKE 18.5 45-26
SYRACUSE Boston College 0.2 17-17 to ot
OHIO STATE Michigan 23.6 44-20
Oklahoma OKLAHOMA STATE 8.1 34-26
Michigan State PENN STATE 2.1 30-28
South Carolina CLEMSON 5.8 34-28
VANDERBILT Wake Forest 2.0 26-24
RICE U a b 0.2 34-34 to ot
Kansas State NORTH TEXAS 18.7 44-25
VIRGINIA TECH Virginia 30.0 37-7
WISCONSIN Northwestern 30.3 51-21
FLORIDA INT’L Arkansas State 6.4 34-28
MIAMI (FL) South Florida 16.5 38-21
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Florida Atlantic 4.2 31-27
UL-MONROE UL-Lafayette 4.6 26-21
PURDUE Indiana 6.8 38-31
TENNESSEE Kentucky 1.1 35-34
TEXAS TECH Houston 10.7 45-34
TROY Western Kentucky 9.5 38-28
Central Florida MEMPHIS 33.2 40-7
MARSHALL Tulane 11.8 35-23
Missouri Kansas (Kansas City) 26.4 40-14
Hawaii NEW MEXICO STATE 30.7 45-14
UTAH B y u 10.0 34-24
T c u NEW MEXICO 55.0 55-0
SAN DIEGO STATE U n l v 20.9 42-21
Louisiana Tech SAN JOSE STATE 14.1 31-17
SOUTHERN CAL Notre Dame 8.9 33-24
FRESNO STATE Idaho 11.6 38-26

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 23      
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Temple MIAMI (O) 27-20 27-16
       
Thursday, November 25      
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Texas A&M TEXAS 23-13 20-14
       
Friday, November 26      
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Louisville RUTGERS 24-21 28-17
Western Michigan BOWLING GREEN 35-28 38-16
PITTSBURGH West Virginia 17-14 17-14
ALABAMA Auburn 31-27 31-28
Buffalo AKRON 23-20 23-20
TOLEDO Central Michigan 38-30 41-21
Northern Illinois EASTERN MICHIGAN 45-19 49-17
EAST CAROLINA S m u 36-34 34-38
Ohio U KENT STATE 35-23 33-14
ARIZONA STATE U c l a 31-20 27-20
NEBRASKA Colorado 28-9 23-17
TULSA Southern Miss. 41-37 44-34
OREGON Arizona 42-23 41-23
Boise State NEVADA 42-30 60-31
       
Saturday, November 27      
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
ARKANSAS L s u 31-27 31-20
STANFORD Oregon State 37-20 38-19
CONNECTICUT Cincinnati 26-21 24-16
FLORIDA STATE Florida 30-27 30-27
GEORGIA Georgia Tech 31-20 28-24
North Carolina St. MARYLAND 24-20 27-17
Iowa MINNESOTA 30-13 34-10
Mississippi State OLE MISS 33-25 34-24
North Carolina DUKE 35-24 35-24
SYRACUSE Boston College 16-14 19-17
OHIO STATE Michigan 37-17 38-24
OKLAHOMA STATE Oklahoma 30-27 27-31
Michigan State PENN STATE 30-27 20-23
South Carolina CLEMSON 35-30 36-20
VANDERBILT Wake Forest 23-17 20-23
RICE U a b 35-35 to ot 38-36
Kansas State NORTH TEXAS 41-21 45-24
VIRGINIA TECH Virginia 35-9 31-14
WISCONSIN Northwestern 45-24 45-24
FLORIDA INT’L Arkansas State 34-27 34-27
MIAMI (FL) South Florida 30-17 30-20
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Florida Atlantic 27-26 24-23
UL-MONROE UL-Lafayette 35-27 35-21
PURDUE Indiana 38-31 37-28
TENNESSEE Kentucky 34-31 35-30
TEXAS TECH Houston 41-32 41-28
TROY Western Kentucky 40-28 35-31
Central Florida MEMPHIS 42-14 47-10
MARSHALL Tulane 35-28 32-31
Missouri Kansas (Kansas City) 41-17 31-13
Hawaii NEW MEXICO STATE 45-17 44-17
UTAH B y u 37-24 28-24
T c u NEW MEXICO 50-7 56-0
SAN DIEGO STATE U n l v 44-24 44-20
Louisiana Tech SAN JOSE STATE 27-16 28-16
SOUTHERN CAL Notre Dame 34-27 28-25
FRESNO STATE Idaho 38-30 38-26

 

 

Bowl Conference Team Conference Team
New Mexico MWC #4 or (5) [Temple 9-3] WAC (#3?) [Army 6-6]
Humanitarian MAC #3 Toledo 9-3 WAC #(1) or 2 Fresno St. 7-5
New Orleans Sunbelt #(1) or 2 Fla. Int’l 7-5 C-USA #5 S M U 6-6
Beef O’Brady’s Big East #6 Connecticut 7-5 C-USA #4-6 East Carolina 7-5
MAACO MWC #1 Utah 10-2 Pac 10 #5 [Kentucky 6-6]
Poinsettia MWC #2 San Diego St. 8-4 Navy or WAC NAVY 9-3
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3/4 HAWAII 10-3 C-USA #2-6 Central Fla. 9-4
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8/SBC [Boston Coll. 6-6] MAC #1-2 N. Illinois 11-2
Independence ACC #7 Clemson 6-6 MWC #3 B Y U 6-6
Champs Sports Big East #2 West Va. 8-4 ACC #3 Miami 8-4
Insight Big 12 #4 Missouri 10-2 Big 10 #4 or 5 Michigan 7-5
Military ACC #8 Georgia Tech 6-6 C-USA #6 U T E P 6-6
Texas Big 12 #6-7 Texas Tech 7-5 Big 10 #6-7 Northwestern 7-5
Alamo Big 12 #3 Nebraska 10-3 Pac 10 #2 Arizona 8-4
Armed Forces C-USA #3-4 Southern Miss 8-4 MWC #3-5/Army Air Force 8-4
Pinstripe Big East #3-4 Syracuse 8-4 Big 12 #6-7 Baylor 7-5
Music City SEC # 7 Tennessee 6-6 ACC #6 Maryland 7-5
Holiday Big 12 #5 Texas A&M 9-3 Pac 10 #3 California 6-6
Meineke Car Care ACC #4-5 N. Carolina 7-5 Big East #3-4 S. Florida 7-5
Sun ACC #4 or 5 N.C. State 9-4 Pac 10 #4 [Notre Dame 6-6]
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 Florida 7-5 C-USA #1 Tulsa 10-3
Chick-fil-A SEC #3-6 L S U 10-2 ACC #2 Florida St. 9-3
Ticket City Big 10 #6-7 Illinois 7-5 Big 12 #8/CUSA Kansas St. 7-5
Outback SEC #3-6 E S. Carolina 9-4 Big 10 #3 Iowa 8-4
Capital One Big 10 #2 Mich. St. 11-1 SEC #2 Alabama 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Penn State 7-5 SEC #6 Miss. State 8-4
Rose BCS Pac10 Stanford 11-1 BCS Big 10 Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Oklahoma 11-2 BCS At-Large Pittsburgh 8-4
Orange BCS ACC Va. Tech 11-2 BCS At-Large T C U 12-0
Sugar BCS SEC Auburn 12-1 BCS At-Large Ohio State 11-1
GoDaddy.com Sunbelt # 2 Troy 6-6 MAC #1 or 2 Ohio U 9-4
Cotton Big 12 #2 Okla. St. 10-2 SEC #3-6 W Arkansas 10-2
BBVA Compass Big East #5 Louisville 6-6 SEC #8 or 9 Georgia 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 [Miami (O) 7-5] WAC #1 Nevada 11-2
Nat’l Championship *** BCS #1 *** Oregon 12-0 *** BCS #2 *** Boise State 12-0

 

All CAPS and Italics—Team has already accepted bid to this bowl

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large entries.

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