NCAA | The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 9, 2012

NCAA College Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 9 Update

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: basketball, Big Dance, Bracketology, Championship, college, Conference, NCAA, tournament — piratings @ 6:37 am

Here is the up-to-date (as of Thursday Night, March 8) results of all conference tournaments as well as the pairings for today’s games.

America East

Preliminary Round

#9 Binghamton 73 #8 Md.-Balt. Co. 67

Quarterfinals

#1 Stony Brook 78 # 9 Binghamton 69

#4 Albany 63 #5 New Hampshire 45

#2 Vermont 50 #7 Maine 40

#6 Hartford 53 #3 Boston U 49

Semifinals

#1 Stony Brook 57 #4 Albany 55

#2 Vermont 77 #6 Hartford 73 2OT

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Stony Brook (21-8) vs. Vermont (22-11)

This is a one-bid league.

A C C

Opening Round

#8 Maryland 82 #9 Wake Forest 60

#5 North Carolina St. 78 #12 Boston College 57

#10 Virginia Tech 68 #7 Clemson 63

#6 Miami (FL) 54 #11 Georgia Tech 36

Quarterfinals

#1 North Carolina (27-4) vs. #8 Maryland (17-14)

#4 Virginia (22-8) vs. #5 North Carolina St. (21-11)

#2 Duke (26-5) vs. #10 Virginia Tech (16-16)

#3 Florida St. (21-9) vs. #6 Miami (FL) (19-11)

At-Large: North Carolina, Duke, Florida St., Virginia

Upper Bubble: North Carolina St.

Lower Bubble: Miami (FL)

Today’s North Carolina St.-Virginia game should be the most interesting game of the tournament. This is basically a play-in game with the winner moving into the upper echelon of the bubble.

Miami can move to the upper bubble with a win over the rival Seminoles.

Atlantic Sun

Quarterfinals

#1 Belmont 76 #8 Jacksonville 62

#4 East Tennessee 68 #5 N. Florida 66

#2 Mercer 61 #7 Lipscomb 53

#6 Florida Gulf Coast 71 #3 S. Carolina Upstate 61

Semifinals

#1 Belmont 69 #4 East Tennessee 61

#6 Florida Gulf Coast 62 #2 Mercer 58

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Belmont 83 Florida Gulf Coast 69

Automatic Bid – BELMONT 27-7

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

Atlantic 10

1^st Round

#8 Massachusetts 92 #9 Duquesne 83

#5 St. Joe’s 80 #12 Charlotte 64

#7 LaSalle 80 #10 Richmond 72

#6 Dayton 67 #11 George Washington 50

Quarterfinals

#1 Temple (24-6) vs. #8 Massachusetts (21-10)

#4 St. Bonaventure (17-11) vs. #5 St. Joe’s (20-12)

#2 St. Louis (24-6) vs. #7 LaSalle (21-11)

#3 Xavier (19-11) vs. #6 Dayton (20-11)

At-Large: Temple

Upper Bubble: St. Louis

Lower Bubble: Xavier, St. Joe’s, and Dayton

The eight remaining teams in this tournament are not that far apart, and the final three days should be highly competitive. Literally, any of this octet can cut down the nets in Atlantic City on Sunday.

Big East

Opening Round

#9 Connecticut 81 #16 Dayton 67

#13 Pittsburgh 73 #12 St. John’s 59

#10 Seton Hall 79 #15 Providence 47

#14 Villanova 70 #11 Rutgers 49

2nd Round

#9 Connecticut 71 #8 West Virginia 67 OT

#5 Georgetown 64 #13 Pittsburgh 52

#7 Louisville 61 #10 Seton Hall 55

#6 South Florida 56 #14 Villanova 47

Quarterfinals

#1 Syracuse 58 #9 Connecticut 55

#4 Cincinnati 72 #5 Georgetown 70 2OT

#7 Louisville 84 #2 Marquette 71

#3 Notre Dame 57 #6 South Florida 52

Semifinals

#1 Syracuse (31-1) vs. #4 Cincinnati (23-9)

#3 Notre Dame (22-10) vs. #7 Louisville (24-9)

At-Large: Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville, Cincinnati

Upper Bubble: West Virginia, Seton Hall, Connecticut

Lower Bubble: South Florida

The Final Four in this tournament could be as strong as the Final Four in the Big Dance. Cincinnati and Syracuse should give basketball fans something to watch today. The Bearcats might be a little tired from yesterday, or else we would call them an odds-on favorite to upset the Orangemen. Syracuse already knows they will earn a top seed in one of the four regionals.

Louisville appears to be the hot team. The Cardinals are peaking at just the right time.

Big Sky

Quarterfinals

#3 Portland St. 75 #6 Montana St. 53

#4 Eastern Washington 81 #5 Idaho St. 75

Semifinals

#1 Montana 74 #4 Eastern Washington 66

#2 Weber St. 69 #3 Portland St. 63

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Montana 85 #2 Weber St. 66

Automatic Bid: MONTANA 25-6

At-Large: None

Bubble: None

This is a one-bid league, but both Montana and Weber State are talented enough to win an opening round game in the NCAA Tournament. With an RPI around 70, the Wildcats are probably not on the bubble.

Big South

Preliminary Round

#8 High Point 68 #9 Gardner-Webb 58

#7 VMI 55 #10 Radford 53

Quarterfinals

#1 UNC-Asheville 86 #8 High Point 61

#4 Charleston Sou. 88 #5 Liberty 74

#6 Winthrop 71 #3 Campbell 55

#7 VMI 85 #2 Coastal Carolina 68

Semifinals

#1 UNC-Asheville 91 #4 Charleston Sou. 64

#7 VMI 75 #6 Winthrop 55

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 UNC-Asheville 80 #7 VMI 64

Automatic Bid – UNC-ASHEVILLE 24-9

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

Big Ten

Opening Round

#8 Iowa 64 #9 Illinois 61

#5 Indiana 75 #12 Penn State 58

#10 Minnesota 75 #7 Northwestern 68

#6 Purdue 79 #11 Nebraska 61

Quarterfinals

#1 Michigan St. (24-7) vs. #8 Iowa (17-15)

#4 Wisconsin (23-8) vs. #5 Indiana (25-7)

#2 Michigan (23-8) vs. #10 Minnesota (19-13)

#3 Ohio St. (25-6) vs. #6 Purdue (21-11)

At-Large: Ohio St., Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue

Upper Bubble:

Lower Bubble: Northwestern

Iowa and Minnesota need to keep winning in order to move onto the lower bubble. As for Illinois, today’s loss probably signaled the end of the Bruce Weber tenure in Champaign-Urbana. Another coaching change could come at Nebraska. The Cornhuskers haven’t been really good since 1966.

Big 12

Opening Round

#9 Texas A&M 62 #8 Oklahoma 53

#7 Oklahoma St. 76 #10 Texas Tech 60

Quarterfinals

#1 Kansas 83 #9 Texas A&M 66

#4 Baylor 82 #5 Kansas St. 74

#2 Missouri 88 #7 Oklahoma St. 70

#3 Iowa St. 65 #6 Texas 71

Semifinals

#1 Kansas (27-5) vs. #4 Baylor (26-6)

#2 Missouri (28-4) vs. #6 Texas (19-12)

At-Large: Kansas, Missouri, Iowa St., Baylor, Kansas St.

Upper Bubble: Texas

Lower Bubble: None

If the Longhorns beat Missouri today, they will move into the at-large field.

Big West

Quarterfinals

#1 Long Beach St. 80 #8 UC-Davis 46

#4 Cal Poly SLO (17-14) vs. #5 UC-Riverside (14-16) **********

#7 UC-Irvine 65 #2 Cal State Fullerton 59

#3 U C S B 72 #6 Pacific 52

Semifinals

#1 Long Beach St. (23-8) vs. #7 UC-Irvine (12-19)

#3 U C S B (19-9) vs.

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: Long Beach St.

Lower Bubble: None

Long Beach State could possibly earn an at-large bid if they lose today or tomorrow, but the 49ers should have minimal competition in the semifinals and not much more in the finals.

Colonial Athletic

Opening Round

#9 UNC-Wilmington 70 #8 James Madison 59

#5 Delaware 72 #12 Towson St. 65

#6 Georgia St. 85 #11 Hofstra 50

#7 Northeastern 57 #10 William & Mary 49

Quarterfinals

#1 Drexel 59 #9 UNC-Wilmington 47

#4 Old Dominion 88 #5 Delaware 74

#3 George Mason 61 #6 Georgia St. 59

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 75 #10 William & Mary 65

Semifinals

#1 Drexel 68 #4 Old Dominion 51

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 74 #3 George Mason 64

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 59 #1 Drexel 56

Automatic Bid – VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 28-6

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – Drexel

Drexel has a chance of earning an at-large bid, but their RPI is on the low side at 68.

Conference USA

Opening Round

#5 U A B 72 #12 Tulane 64

#8 U T E P 67 #9 Houston 62 OT

#10 East Carolina 68 #7 Rice 66

#6 Marshall 74 #11 S M U 56

Quarterfinals

#1 Memphis 65 #8 U T E P 47

#4 Central Florida 51 #5 U A B 43

#2 Southern Mississippi 81 #10 East Carolina 78

#6 Marshall 105 #3 Tulsa 100 3 OT

Semifinals

#1 Memphis (24-8) vs. #4 Central Florida (21-9)

#2 Southern Mississippi (25-7) vs. #6 Marshall (20-12)

At-Large: Memphis

Upper Bubble: Southern Miss

Lower Bubble: None

Central Florida will be placed in the lower bubble with a win today against the top seed in the conference tournament.

Horizon League

Opening Round

#4 Milwaukee 68 #9 Illinois-Chi. 55

#5 Butler 70 #8 Wright St. 52

#3 Detroit 80 #10 Loyola (Chi) 71

#6 Youngstown 77 #7 Green Bay 60

Quarterfinals

#5 Butler 71 #4 Milwaukee 49

#3 Detroit 93 #6 Youngstown St. 76

Semifinals

#1 Valparaiso 65 #5 Butler 46

#3 Detroit 63 #2 Cleveland St. 58

CHAMPIONSHIP

#3 Detroit 70 #1 Valparaiso 50

Automatic Bid – DETROIT 22-13

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

This is a one-bid league. Neither Valpo, Cleveland State nor Butler will earn at-large bids.

M A A C

Preliminary Round

#8 Marist 64 #9 St. Peter’s 57

#7 Niagara 80 #10 Canisius 70

Quarterfinals

#1 Iona 87 #8 Marist 63

#4 Fairfield 65 #5 Rider 63

#2 Loyola (MD) 86 #7 Niagara 73

#6 Siena 84 #3 Manhattan 82

Semifinals

#4 Fairfield 85 #1 Iona 75

#2 Loyola (MD) 70 #6 Siena 60

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Loyola (MD) 48 #4 Fairfield 44

Automatic Bid – LOYOLA (MD) 24-8

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

This is a one-bid league. Iona played their way out of the Big Dance and into the NIT.

M A C

Opening Round

#12 Northern Illinois 55 #5 Eastern Michigan 52

#8 Western Michigan 69 #9 Ball St. 63

#7 Toledo 60 #10 (Miami (O) 53

#11 Central Michigan 54 #6 Bowling Green 53

2^nd Round

#8 Western Michigan 71 #12 Northern Illinois 54

#7 Toledo 75 #11 Central Michigan 72

Quarterfinals

#4 Kent St. 76 #8 Western Michigan 72

#3 Ohio 65 #7 Toledo 57

Semifinals

#1 Akron (21-10) vs. #4 Kent St. (20-10)

#2 Buffalo (19-9) vs. #3 Ohio (24-7)

The top four seeds are in the semifinals. This gives the MAC a fighting chance for two bids, but it may be a losing fight.

M E A C

Opening Round

#8 Hampton 69 #9 Morgan St. 65

#5 North Carolina Central 60 #12 Md. Eastern Shore 43

#4 Bethune-Cookman 62 #13 South Carolina St. 53

#11 Florida A& M 74 #6 Coppin St. 72

#10 Howard 51 #7 North Carolina A&T 50

Quarterfinals

#8 Hampton 59 #1 Savannah St. 46

#4 Bethune-Cookman 60 #5 North Carolina Central 59

#2 Norfolk St. 71 #7 Howard 61

#11 Florida A&M 65 #3 Delaware St. 55

Semfinals

#4 Bethune-Cookman (17-16) vs. #8 Hampton (12-20)

#2 Norfolk St. (23-9) vs. #11 Florida A&M (10-22)

This is a one-bid league. With Savannah State suffering an early exit, only Norfolk State can possibly avoid a trip to Dayton for the first round.

Missouri Valley

Opening Round

#8 Indiana St. 66 #9 Southern Illinois 51

#7 Drake 65 #10 Bradley 49

Quarterfinals

#1 Wichita St. 72 #8 Indiana St. 48

#4 Illinois St. 54 #5 Northern Iowa 42

#2 Creighton 68 vs. #7 Drake 61

#3 Evansville 72 vs. #6 Missouri St. 64

Semifinals

#4 Illinois St. 65 #1 Wichita St. 64

#2 Creighton 99 #3 Evansville 71

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Creighton 83 #4 Illinois St. 79 OT

Automatic Bid – Creighton 27-5

At-Large – Wichita St. 27-5

Bubble – None

Mountain West

Quarterfinals

#1 San Diego St. 65 #8 Boise St. 62

#4 Colorado St. 81 #5 T C U 60

#2 New Mexico 79 #7 Air Force 64

#3 U N L V 56 #6 Wyoming 48

Semifinals

#1 San Diego St. (25-6) vs. #4 Colorado St. (20-10)

#2 New Mexico (25-6) vs. #3 U N L V (26-7)

At-Large: San Diego St., UNLV, New Mexico

Upper Bubble: Colorado St.

Lower Bubble: None

Colorado St. is at the very top of the bubble today, and the Rams are almost assured to receive an at-large bid.

Northeast

Quarterfinals

#1 Long Island 80 #8 Sacred Heart 68

#5 Quinnipiac 80 #4 St. Francis (NY) 72

#3 Robert Morris 87 #6 Monmouth 68

#2 Wagner 87 #7 Central Conn. St. 77

Semifinals

#1 Long Island 78 #5 Quinnipiac 75

#3 Robert Morris 71 #2 Wagner 64

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Long Island 90 #3 Robert Morris 73

Automatic Bid: LONG ISLAND 25-8

At-Large: None

Bubble: None

Wagner’s slim chances for getting in as a wildcard team went bye-bye with their semifinal loss to RMU.

LIU enters the Big Dance winning 20 of their last 22 games.

Ohio Valley

Opening Round

#5 Southeast Missouri 75 #8 E. Kentucky 65

#7 Jacksonville St. 75 #6 Austin Peay 70

Quarterfinals

#4 Tennessee Tech 77 #5 Southeast Missouri 73

#3 Morehead St. 68 #7 Jacksonville St. 54

Semifinals

#1 Murray St. 78 #4 Tennessee Tech 58

#2 Tennessee St. 59 #3 Morehead St. 52

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Murray St. 54 #2 Tennessee St. 52

Automatic Bid – Murray St. 30-1

At-Large – None

Bubble – None

Murray State should receive a #4 or #5 seed, a #6 at worst.

Pac-12

Opening Round

#9 Oregon St. 69 #8 Washington St. 64

#5 U C L A 55 #12 U S C 40

#7 Stanford 85 #10 Arizona St. 65

#6 Colorado 53 #11 Utah 41

Quarterfinals

#9 Oregon State 86 #1 Washington 84

#4 Arizona 66 #5 U C L A 58

#2 California 77 #7 Stanford 71

#3 Oregon 63 #6 Colorado 62

Semifinals

#4 Arizona (22-10) vs. #9 Oregon St. (19-13)

#2 California (24-8) vs. #6 Colorado (21-11)

At-Large: California

Upper Bubble: Arizona

Lower Bubble: Colorado, Washington

UCLA and Stanford are NIT-bound following yesterday’s losses. Colorado needs to win today to have any chance at an at-large bid and may really need to reach the Championship Game to have a legitimate shot. The Buffs’ RPI moved from 82 to 77. A win over Cal could move CU’s RPI into the lower 70’s, and we project they would need to move up to at least 65 to have a fighting chance.

California looks to be safely in the field of 68 following yesterday’s win over rival Stanford.

Patriot League

Quarterfinals

#1 Bucknell 87 #8 Navy 63

#5 Lafayette 84 #4 Holy Cross 76

#2 Lehigh 70 #7 Colgate 57

#3 American 57 #6 Army 40

Semifinals

#1 Bucknell 79 #5 Lafayette 52

#2 Lehigh 85 #3 American 66

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Lehigh 82 #1 Bucknell 77

Automatic Bid: LEHIGH 26-7

At-Large: None

Bubble: None

The Mountain Hawks search for the first NCAA Tournament win in their fifth trip to the Big Dance, and they have the one-two punch in C J McCollum and Gabe Knutson. Lehigh lost at Michigan State by just nine points earlier in the year, and they enter the NCAA Tournament having won eight games in a row and 12 of 13.

Southern

Opening Round

#5N Appalachian St. 93 #4S College of Charleston 81

#3N Western Carolina 68 #6S Citadel 56

#5S Furman 75 #4N Samford 66

#3S Georgia Southern 76 #6N Chattanooga 70

Quarterfinals

#1N UNC-Greensboro 65 #5N Appalachian St. 55

#3N Western Carolina 82 #2S Wofford 59

#1S Davidson 73 #5S Furman 54

#2N Elon 65 #3S Georgia Southern 58

Semifinals

#3N Western Carolina 82 #1N UNC-Greensboro 77

#1S Davidson 83 #2N Elon 67

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1S Davidson 93 #1N UNC-Greensboro 91

Automatic Bid – DAVIDSON 25-7

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

Davidson might not have earned a ticket as an at-large team. Tell that to Kansas coach Bill Self, and he would say you were crazy.

S E C

Opening Round

#8 L S U 70 #9 Arkansas 54

#5 Alabama 63 #12 South Carolina 57

#7 Ole Miss 68 #10 Auburn 54

#11 Georgia 71 #6 Mississippi St. 61

Quarterfinals

#1 Kentucky (30-1) vs. #8 L S U (18-13)

#4 Florida (22-9) vs. #5 Alabama (21-10)

#2 Tennessee (18-13) vs. #7 Ole Miss (19-12)

#3 Vanderbilt (21-10) vs. #11 Georgia (15-16)

At-Large: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt

Upper Bubble: Alabama

Lower Bubble: Tennessee, Ole Miss, Mississippi St.

Tennessee and Ole Miss are the two hot teams other than Kentucky, and their game today should be the best one of the tournament. Should one of these teams make it to Sunday, it would be hard to keep them out of the field.

Mississippi State may have dropped too far to make the Dance now, and Coach Rick Stansbury could be out of work. Georgia won four games in three days a few years ago. If they upset Vanderbilt today, Bulldog fans might start believing it could happen again.

Southland

Quarterfinals

#1 UT-Arlington 96 #8 Nicholls St. 48

#4 McNeese St. 78 #5 TX-San Antonio 74 OT

#2 Stephen F Austin 68 #7 Sam Houston 46

#3 Lamar 76 #6 Northwestern State (LA) 69

Semifinals

#4 McNeese St. 92 #1 UT-Arlington 72

#3 Lamar 55 #2 Stephen F Austin 44

CHAMPIONSHIP

#3 Lamar (22-11) vs. #4 McNeese St. (17-14)

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: None

The top two seeds fell in the semifinals, and now the Southland champion may be looking to make reservations in Dayton.

S W A C

Quarterfinals

#1 Mississippi Valley St. 63 #8 Jackson St. 60

#5 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 60 #4 Alabama St. 56

#2 Texas Southern 75 #7 Alabama A&M 62

#6 Alcorn St. 103 #3 Prairie View 79

Semifinals

#1 Mississippi Valley St. (19-12) vs. #5 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (11-21)

#2 Texas Southern (14-17) vs. #6 Alcorn St. (10-21)

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: None

The Wacky SWAC is the only league where a 9-21 team blows out the #3 seed by 24 points in the quarterfinals. Yesterday, Alcorn State looked more like Southern U of the 1960’s and 1970’s.

Mississippi Valley may be the only one of the remaining four that can avoid a trip to Dayton, but we highly doubt it.

Summit League

Quarterfinals

#1 Oral Roberts 71 #8 I P F W 67

#4 Western Illinois 58 #5 North Dakota St. 53

#2 South Dakota St. 77 I U P U I 56

#6 Southern Utah 84 #3 Oakland 82

Semifinals

#4 Western Illinois 54 #1 Oral Roberts 53

#2 South Dakota St. 63 #6 Southern Utah 47

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 South Dakota St. 52 #4 Western Illinois 50

Automatic Bid – SOUTH DAKOTA ST. 27-7

At-Large Teams –None

Bubble – Oral Roberts

Had South Dakota St. and Oral Roberts advanced to the Championship Game, and Oral Roberts’ lost instead of losing to WIU in the semis, ORU would be on the at-large line and not the bubble. With an RPI of 55, the Golden Eagles are in a precarious position.

Sunbelt

Opening Round

#6 South Alabama 87 #11 Troy 81

#7 Western Kentucky 67 #10 Florida Int’l 63

#9 Arkansas St. 70 #8 Florida Atlantic 55

Quarterfinals

#9 Arkansas St. 64 #1 Middle Tennessee 61

#5 North Texas 65 #4 Louisiana-Lafayette 62

#7 Western Kentucky 68 #2 U A L R 63

#3 Denver 61 #6 South Alabama 50

Semifinals

#5 North Texas 76 #9 Arkansas St. 72

#7 Western Kentucky 67 #3 Denver 63

CHAMPIONSHIP

#7 Western Kentucky 74 #3 Denver 70

Automatic Bid –WESTERN KENTUCKY 15-18

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – Middle Tennessee

This is probably a one-bid league. The top two seeds lost in their first games in this unique tournament played in two separate gyms in the same building. Middle Tennessee may still be on the bubble with an RPI of 65, but they are more than likely headed to the NIT. Western Kentucky will be headed to the first round in Dayton. However, their 15-18 record is very misleading. The Hilltoppers were supposed to contend for the regular season championship; however, major dissension led to a poor start and a dismissal of head coach Ken McDonald. Since Ray Harper assumed command, WKU has sported a 10-7 record, and a 7-4 finish. This team cannot be overlooked in Dayton and could very well advance to the second round.

W A C

Quarterfinals

#1 Nevada 54 #8 San Jose St. 44

#5 Louisiana Tech 72 #4 Utah St. 70

#2 New Mexico St. 65 #7 Fresno St. 49

#6 Hawaii 72 #3 Idaho 70

Semifinals

#1 Nevada (26-5) vs. #5 Louisiana Tech (17-15)

#2 New Mexico St. (24-9) vs. #6 Hawaii (16-15)

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: Nevada

Nevada has moved up to #52 in the RPI, and the Wolfpack are on the cusp of moving up to the upper bubble. A win today will not improve their lot very much, and if they don’t win the tournament and are to get in as an at-large selection, they need New Mexico State to win today.

A Nevada-New Mexico State final would make this tournament most worth watching.

West Coast

Opening Round

#8 Portland 74 #9 Santa Clara 70

2^nd Round

#5 San Francisco 87 #8 Portland 66

#6 San Diego 76 #7 Pepperdine 54

Quarterfinals

#5 San Francisco 67 #4 Loyola Marymount 60

#3 B Y U 73 vs. #6 San Diego 68

Semifinals

#1 Saint Mary’s 83 #5 San Francisco 78

#2 Gonzaga 77 #3 B Y U 58

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Saint Mary’s 78 #2 Gonzaga 74 OT

Automatic Bid – SAINT MARY’S 26-5

At-Large Teams – Gonzaga

Bubble – B Y U

This has the look of a three-bid league, with the two behemoths and BYU all headed to the Big Dance. Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga are now the true powers of the West. If you remember UCLA versus USC or Oregon State in the 1970’s and 1980’s, this is what this rivalry has become. Both teams could easily advance to the Elite 8.

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March 8, 2012

NCAA College Basketball Tournaments–March 8 Update

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: basketball, Big Dance, Bracketology, Championship, college, Conference, NCAA, tournament — piratings @ 7:06 am

Here is the up-to-date (as of Wednesday Night, March 7) results of all conference tournaments as well as the pairings for today’s games.

America East

Preliminary Round

#9 Binghamton 73 #8 Md.-Balt. Co. 67

Quarterfinals

#1 Stony Brook 78 # 9 Binghamton 69

#4 Albany 63 #5 New Hampshire 45

#2 Vermont 50 #7 Maine 40

#6 Hartford 53 #3 Boston U 49

Semifinals

#1 Stony Brook 57 #4 Albany 55

#2 Vermont 77 #6 Hartford 73 2OT

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Stony Brook (21-8) vs. Vermont (22-11)

This is a one-bid league.

A C C

Opening Round

#8 Maryland (16-14) vs. #9 Wake Forest (13-17)

#5 North Carolina St. (20-11) vs. #12 Boston College (9-21)

#7 Clemson (16-14) vs. #10 Virginia Tech (15-16)

#6 Miami (FL) (18-11) vs. #11 Georgia Tech (11-19)

At-Large: North Carolina, Duke, Florida St., Virginia

Upper Bubble: North Carolina St.

Lower Bubble: Virginia

Atlantic Sun

Quarterfinals

#1 Belmont 76 #8 Jacksonville 62

#4 East Tennessee 68 #5 N. Florida 66

#2 Mercer 61 #7 Lipscomb 53

#6 Florida Gulf Coast 71 #3 S. Carolina Upstate 61

Semifinals

#1 Belmont 69 #4 East Tennessee 61

#6 Florida Gulf Coast 62 #2 Mercer 58

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Belmont 83 Florida Gulf Coast 69

Automatic Bid – BELMONT 27-7

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

Atlantic 10

1^st Round

#8 Massachusetts 92 #9 Duquesne 83

#5 St. Joe’s 80 #12 Charlotte 64

#7 LaSalle 80 #10 Richmond 72

#6 Dayton 67 #11 George Washington 50

Quarterfinals (Friday, March 9)

#1 Temple (24-6) vs. #8 Massachusetts (21-10)

#4 St. Bonaventure (17-11) vs. #5 St. Joe’s (20-12)

#2 St. Louis (24-6) vs. #7 LaSalle (21-11)

#3 Xavier (19-11) vs. #6 Dayton (20-11)

At-Large: Temple

Upper Bubble: St. Louis

Lower Bubble: Xavier, St. Joe’s, and Dayton

Big East

Opening Round

#9 Connecticut 81 #16 Dayton 67

#13 Pittsburgh 73 #12 St. John’s 59

#10 Seton Hall 79 #15 Providence 47

#14 Villanova 70 #11 Rutgers 49

2nd Round

#9 Connecticut 71 #8 West Virginia 67 OT

#5 Georgetown 64 #13 Pittsburgh 52

#7 Louisville 61 #10 Seton Hall 55

#6 South Florida 56 #14 Villanova 47

Quarterfinals

#1 Syracuse (30-1) vs. #9 Connecticut (20-12)

#4 Cincinnati (22-9) vs. #5 Georgetown (23-7)

#2 Marquette (25-6) vs. #7 Louisville (23-9)

#3 Notre Dame (21-10) vs. #6 South Florida (19-12)

At-Large: Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville, Cincinnati

Upper Bubble: West Virginia, Seton Hall, South Florida, Connecticut

Lower Bubble: None

Can the Huskies do it again? After winning five games in five days last year, UConn has now won two games in two days. An upset over the top-seeded Orangemen just may make UConn the odds-on favorite to repeat the feat.

Big Sky

Quarterfinals

#3 Portland St. 75 #6 Montana St. 53

#4 Eastern Washington 81 #5 Idaho St. 75

Semifinals

#1 Montana 74 #4 Eastern Washington 66

#2 Weber St. 69 #3 Portland St. 63

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Montana 85 #2 Weber St. 66

Automatic Bid: MONTANA 25-6

At-Large: None

Bubble: None

This is a one-bid league, but both Montana and Weber State are talented enough to win an opening round game in the NCAA Tournament. With an RPI around 70, the Wildcats are probably not on the bubble.

Big South

Preliminary Round

#8 High Point 68 #9 Gardner-Webb 58

#7 VMI 55 #10 Radford 53

Quarterfinals

#1 UNC-Asheville 86 #8 High Point 61

#4 Charleston Sou. 88 #5 Liberty 74

#6 Winthrop 71 #3 Campbell 55

#7 VMI 85 #2 Coastal Carolina 68

Semifinals

#1 UNC-Asheville 91 #4 Charleston Sou. 64

#7 VMI 75 #6 Winthrop 55

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 UNC-Asheville 80 #7 VMI 64

Automatic Bid – UNC-ASHEVILLE 24-9

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

Big Ten

Opening Round

#8 Iowa (16-15) vs. #9 Illinois (17-14)

#5 Indiana (24-7) vs. #12 Penn State (12-19)

#7 Northwestern (18-12) vs. #10 Minnesota (18-13)

#6 Purdue (20-11) vs. #11 Nebraska (12-17)

At-Large: Ohio St., Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue

Upper Bubble: Northwestern

Lower Bubble: None (Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois have too much ground to make up and need to win the tournament. The three teams have no chance of sneaking in with a loss in the Championship Game).

Big 12

Opening Round

#9 Texas A&M 62 #8 Oklahoma 53

#7 Oklahoma St. 76 #10 Texas Tech 60

Quarterfinals

#1 Kansas (26-5) vs. #9 Texas A&M (14-17)

#4 Baylor (25-6) vs. #5 Kansas St. (21-9)

#2 Missouri (27-4) vs. #7 Oklahoma St. (15-17)

#3 Iowa St. (22-9) vs. #6 Texas (19-12)

At-Large: Kansas, Missouri, Iowa St., Baylor, Kansas St.

Upper Bubble: Texas

Lower Bubble: None (If Texas loses to Iowa St., the Longhorns could fall here.

Big West

Quarterfinals

#1 Long Beach St. (22-8) vs. #8 UC-Davis (5-25)

#4 Cal Poly SLO (17-14) vs. #5 UC-Riverside (14-16)

#2 Cal State Fullerton (21-8) vs. #7 UC_Irvine (11-19)

#3 U C S B (18-9) vs. #6 Pacific (11-18)

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: Long Beach St.

Lower Bubble: None

Long Beach State played one of the hardest schedules in the nation and fared admirably. Their body of work gives the 49ers the look of a NCAA Tournament team. A loss to Cal State Fullerton in the Championship Game should still keep LBSU safe. A loss in the earlier rounds will throw the 49ers down to the lower bubble.

Colonial Athletic

Opening Round

#9 UNC-Wilmington 70 #8 James Madison 59

#5 Delaware 72 #12 Towson St. 65

#6 Georgia St. 85 #11 Hofstra 50

#7 Northeastern 57 #10 William & Mary 49

Quarterfinals

#1 Drexel 59 #9 UNC-Wilmington 47

#4 Old Dominion 88 #5 Delaware 74

#3 George Mason 61 #6 Georgia St. 59

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 75 #10 William & Mary 65

Semifinals

#1 Drexel 68 #4 Old Dominion 51

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 74 #3 George Mason 64

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 59 #1 Drexel 56

Automatic Bid – VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 28-6

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – Drexel

Drexel has a chance of earning an at-large bid, but their RPI is on the low side at 68.

Conference USA

Opening Round

#5 U A B 72 #12 Tulane 64

#8 U T E P 67 #9 Houston 62 OT

#10 East Carolina 68 #7 Rice 66

#6 Marshall 74 #11 S M U 56

Quarterfinals

#1 Memphis (23-8) vs. #8 U T E P (15-16)

#4 Central Florida (21-9) vs. #5 U A B (14-15)

#2 Southern Mississippi (24-7) vs. #10 East Carolina (15-15)

#3 Tulsa (17-13) vs. #6 Marshall (19-12)

At-Large: Memphis

Upper Bubble: Southern Miss

Lower Bubble: None

Central Florida has a chance to move up to the lower bubble with a run to the finals, but it would still be a remote shot if they lost in the Championship Game.

Horizon League

Opening Round

#4 Milwaukee 68 #9 Illinois-Chi. 55

#5 Butler 70 #8 Wright St. 52

#3 Detroit 80 #10 Loyola (Chi) 71

#6 Youngstown 77 #7 Green Bay 60

Quarterfinals

#5 Butler 71 #4 Milwaukee 49

#3 Detroit 93 #6 Youngstown St. 76

Semifinals

#1 Valparaiso 65 #5 Butler 46

#3 Detroit 63 #2 Cleveland St. 58

CHAMPIONSHIP

#3 Detroit 70 #1 Valparaiso 50

Automatic Bid – DETROIT 22-13

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

This is a one-bid league. Neither Valpo, Cleveland State nor Butler will earn at-large bids.

M A A C

Preliminary Round

#8 Marist 64 #9 St. Peter’s 57

#7 Niagara 80 #10 Canisius 70

Quarterfinals

#1 Iona 87 #8 Marist 63

#4 Fairfield 65 #5 Rider 63

#2 Loyola (MD) 86 #7 Niagara 73

#6 Siena 84 #3 Manhattan 82

Semifinals

#4 Fairfield 85 #1 Iona 75

#2 Loyola (MD) 70 #6 Siena 60

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Loyola (MD) 48 #4 Fairfield 44

Automatic Bid – LOYOLA (MD) 24-8

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

This is a one-bid league. Iona played their way out of the Big Dance and into the NIT.

M A C

Opening Round

#5 Eastern Michigan (14-17) vs. #12 Northern Illinois (4-25)

#8 Western Michigan (12-19) vs. #9 Ball St. (15-14)

#7 Toledo (16-15) vs. #10 (Miami (O) (9-20)

#6 Bowling Green (16-14) vs. #11 (Central Michigan (10-20)

2^nd Round

#8 Western Michigan 71 #12 Northern Illinois 54

#7 Toledo 75 #11 Central Michigan 72

Quarterfinals

#4 Kent St. (20-10) vs. #8 Western Michigan (13-19)

#3 Ohio (24-7) vs. #7 Toledo (17-15)

This could develop into a two-bid league. Akron has moved up to #62 in the RPI and Ohio is #70. Akron has one more bye to the semifinals and will face the winner of the Kent St.-Western Michigan game.

M E A C

Opening Round

#8 Hampton 69 #9 Morgan St. 65

#5 North Carolina Central 60 #12 Md. Eastern Shore 43

#4 Bethune-Cookman 62 #13 South Carolina St. 53

#11 Florida A& M 74 #6 Coppin St. 72

#10 Howard 51 #7 North Carolina A&T 50

Quarterfinals

#8 Hampton 59 #1 Savannah St. 46

#4 Bethune-Cookman (16-16) vs. #5 North Carolina Central (17-14)

#2 Norfolk St. 71 #7 Howard 61

#3 Delaware St. (15-13) vs. #11 Florida A&M (9-22)

This is a one-bid league. With Savannah State suffering an early exit, only Norfolk State can win the automatic bid and avoid a trip to Dayton for the first round.

Missouri Valley

Opening Round

#8 Indiana St. 66 #9 Southern Illinois 51

#7 Drake 65 #10 Bradley 49

Quarterfinals

#1 Wichita St. 72 #8 Indiana St. 48

#4 Illinois St. 54 #5 Northern Iowa 42

#2 Creighton 68 vs. #7 Drake 61

#3 Evansville 72 vs. #6 Missouri St. 64

Semifinals

#4 Illinois St. 65 #1 Wichita St. 64

#2 Creighton 99 #3 Evansville 71

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Creighton 83 #4 Illinois St. 79 OT

Automatic Bid – Creighton 27-5

At-Large – Wichita St. 27-5

Bubble – None

Mountain West

Quarterfinals

#1 San Diego St. (24-6) vs. #8 Boise St. (13-16)

#4 Colorado St. (19-10) vs. #5 T C U (17-13)

#2 New Mexico (24-6) vs. #7 Air Force (13-15)

#3 U N L V (25-7) vs. #6 Wyoming (20-10)

At-Large: San Diego St., UNLV, New Mexico

Upper Bubble: Colorado St.

Lower Bubble: None

TCU and Wyoming lost too many times in February. Both teams can only get there by earning the automatic bid. Colorado State can secure a bid with a win over T C U.

Northeast

Quarterfinals

#1 Long Island 80 #8 Sacred Heart 68

#5 Quinnipiac 80 #4 St. Francis (NY) 72

#3 Robert Morris 87 #6 Monmouth 68

#2 Wagner 87 #7 Central Conn. St. 77

Semifinals

#1 Long Island 78 #5 Quinnipiac 75

#3 Robert Morris 71 #2 Wagner 64

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Long Island 90 #3 Robert Morris 73

Automatic Bid: LONG ISLAND 25-8

At-Large: None

Bubble: None

Wagner’s slim chances for getting in as a wildcard team went bye-bye with their semifinal loss to RMU.

LIU enters the Big Dance winning 20 of their last 22 games.

Ohio Valley

Opening Round

#5 Southeast Missouri 75 #8 E. Kentucky 65

#7 Jacksonville St. 75 #6 Austin Peay 70

Quarterfinals

#4 Tennessee Tech 77 #5 Southeast Missouri 73

#3 Morehead St. 68 #7 Jacksonville St. 54

Semifinals

#1 Murray St. 78 #4 Tennessee Tech 58

#2 Tennessee St. 59 #3 Morehead St. 52

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Murray St. 54 #2 Tennessee St. 52

Automatic Bid – Murray St. 30-1

At-Large – None

Bubble – None

Murray State should receive a #4 or #5 seed, a #6 at worst.

Pac-12

Opening Round

#9 Oregon St. 69 #8 Washington St. 64

#5 U C L A 55 #12 U S C 40

#7 Stanford 85 #10 Arizona St. 65

#6 Colorado 53 #11 Utah 41

Quarterfinals

#1 Washington (21-9) vs. #9 Oregon State (18-13)

#4 Arizona (21-10) vs. #5 U C L A (19-13)

#2 California (23-8) vs. #7 Stanford (20-10)

#3 Oregon (22-8) vs. #6 Colorado (20-11)

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: California, Washington, Arizona

Lower Bubble: Colorado

UCLA and Stanford could move to the lower bubble if they made it to the Championship Game and lost to one of the three current upper bubble teams. Colorado needs to win two games to have any chance at an at-large bid and may really need to reach the Championship Game to have a legitimate shot. The Buffs’ RPI is 82; wins over Utah, Oregon, and Cal with a loss to Washington could elevate CU to around #65-70, and that is still iffy for an RPI ranking.

Patriot League

Quarterfinals

#1 Bucknell 87 #8 Navy 63

#5 Lafayette 84 #4 Holy Cross 76

#2 Lehigh 70 #7 Colgate 57

#3 American 57 #6 Army 40

Semifinals

#1 Bucknell 79 #5 Lafayette 52

#2 Lehigh 85 #3 American 66

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Lehigh 82 #1 Bucknell 77

Automatic Bid: LEHIGH 26-7

At-Large: None

Bubble: None

Southern

Opening Round

#5N Appalachian St. 93 #4S College of Charleston 81

#3N Western Carolina 68 #6S Citadel 56

#5S Furman 75 #4N Samford 66

#3S Georgia Southern 76 #6N Chattanooga 70

Quarterfinals

#1N UNC-Greensboro 65 #5N Appalachian St. 55

#3N Western Carolina 82 #2S Wofford 59

#1S Davidson 73 #5S Furman 54

#2N Elon 65 #3S Georgia Southern 58

Semifinals

#3N Western Carolina 82 #1N UNC-Greensboro 77

#1S Davidson 83 #2N Elon 67

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1S Davidson 93 #1N UNC-Greensboro 91

Automatic Bid – DAVIDSON 25-7

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

Davidson might not have earned a ticket as an at-large team. Tell that to Kansas coach Bill Self, and he would say you were crazy.

S E C

Opening Round

#8 L S U (17-13) vs. #9 Arkansas (18-13)

#5 Alabama (20-10) vs. #12 South Carolina (10-20)

#7 Ole Miss (18-12) vs. #10 Auburn (15-15)

#6 Mississippi St. (21-10) vs. #11 Georgia (14-16)

At-Large: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt

Upper Bubble: Alabama, Mississippi St.

Lower Bubble: Tennessee, Ole Miss

Tennessee and Ole Miss are the two hot teams other than Kentucky as the tournament commences. Should one of these teams make it to Sunday, it would be hard to keep them out of the field.

Southland

Quarterfinals

#1 UT-Arlington 96 #8 Nicholls St. 48

#4 McNeese St. 78 #5 TX-San Antonio 74 OT

#2 Stephen F Austin 68 #7 Sam Houston 46

#3 Lamar 76 #6 Northwestern State (LA) 69

Semifinals

#1 UT-Arlington (24-7) vs. #4 McNeese St. (16-14)

#2 Stephen F Austin (20-11) vs. #3 Lamar (21-11)

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: None

Texas-Arlington ran away from the field in the regular season standings, but the Mavericks did not run teams out of the gym like they did against Nicholls State yesterday. UT-A is no shoo-in to cop the conference tournament. SF Austin is a worthy competitor, as is Lamar.

S W A C

Quarterfinals

#1 Mississippi Valley St. 63 #8 Jackson St. 60

#4 Alabama St. (12-18) vs. #5 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (10-21)

#2 Texas Southern 75 #7 Alabama A&M 62

#3 Prairie View (14-17) vs. #6 Alcorn St. (9-21)

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: None

In a conference where half of the members lost 20 or more games and 80% had losing records, there is a high probability that the winner of the league’s automatic bid will be playing in Dayton in the opening round. The top two seeds advanced Wednesday and receive a day off until the semifinals.

Summit League

Quarterfinals

#1 Oral Roberts 71 #8 I P F W 67

#4 Western Illinois 58 #5 North Dakota St. 53

#2 South Dakota St. 77 I U P U I 56

#6 Southern Utah 84 #3 Oakland 82

Semifinals

#4 Western Illinois 54 #1 Oral Roberts 53

#2 South Dakota St. 63 #6 Southern Utah 47

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 South Dakota St. 52 #4 Western Illinois 50

Automatic Bid – SOUTH DAKOTA ST. 27-7

At-Large Teams –None

Bubble – Oral Roberts

Sunbelt

Opening Round

#6 South Alabama 87 #11 Troy 81

#7 Western Kentucky 67 #10 Florida Int’l 63

#9 Arkansas St. 70 #8 Florida Atlantic 55

Quarterfinals

#9 Arkansas St. 64 #1 Middle Tennessee 61

#5 North Texas 65 #4 Louisiana-Lafayette 62

#7 Western Kentucky 68 #2 U A L R 63

#3 Denver 61 #6 South Alabama 50

Semifinals

#5 North Texas 76 #9 Arkansas St. 72

#7 Western Kentucky 67 #3 Denver 63

CHAMPIONSHIP

#7 Western Kentucky 74 #3 Denver 70

Automatic Bid –WESTERN KENTUCKY 15-18

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – Middle Tennessee

W A C

#1 Nevada (25-5) vs. #8 San Jose St. (9-21)

#4 Utah St. (17-14) vs. #5 Louisiana Tech (16-15)

#2 New Mexico St. (23-9) vs. #7 Fresno St. (13-19)

#3 Idaho (18-12) vs. #6 Hawaii (15-15)

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: Nevada

For Nevada to earn an at-large bid, all of the major conference tournaments need to be one by high seeds without any other lower bubble teams making a splash.

The dark horse here is Utah State. The 4^th-seeded Aggies have been there before and must be respected as a well-coached team that knows how to win.

West Coast

Opening Round

#8 Portland 74 #9 Santa Clara 70

2^nd Round

#5 San Francisco 87 #8 Portland 66

#6 San Diego 76 #7 Pepperdine 54

Quarterfinals

#5 San Francisco 67 #4 Loyola Marymount 60

#3 B Y U 73 vs. #6 San Diego 68

Semifinals

#1 Saint Mary’s 83 #5 San Francisco 78

#2 Gonzaga 77 #3 B Y U 58

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Saint Mary’s 78 #2 Gonzaga 74 OT

Automatic Bid – SAINT MARY’S 26-5

At-Large Teams – Gonzaga

Bubble – B Y U

Coming Sometime Before Sunday–A renewable of PiRate Bracketnomics, a mechanical system using backtested data to determine which teams have Final Four resumes.

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March 7, 2012

NCAA College Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 7 Update

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: basketball, Big Dance, Bracketology, Championship, college, Conference, NCAA, tournament — piratings @ 8:48 am

Congratulations are in order to the Harvard Crimson for securing their first bid to the NCAA Tournament since 1946. Harvard (26-4) clinched the Ivy League title following last night’s Princeton win over Penn.

Here is the up-to-date (as of Tuesday Night, March 6) results of all conference tournaments as well as the pairings for today’s games.

America East

Preliminary Round

#9 Binghamton 73 #8 Md.-Balt. Co. 67

Quarterfinals

#1 Stony Brook 78 # 9 Binghamton 69

#4 Albany 63 #5 New Hampshire 45

#2 Vermont 50 #7 Maine 40

#6 Hartford 53 #3 Boston U 49

Semifinals

#1 Stony Brook 57 #4 Albany 55

#2 Vermont 77 #6 Hartford 73 2OT

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Stony Brook (21-8) vs. Vermont (22-11)

This is a one-bid league.

Atlantic Sun

Quarterfinals

#1 Belmont 76 #8 Jacksonville 62

#4 East Tennessee 68 #5 N. Florida 66

#2 Mercer 61 #7 Lipscomb 53

#6 Florida Gulf Coast 71 #3 S. Carolina Upstate 61

Semifinals

#1 Belmont 69 #4 East Tennessee 61

#6 Florida Gulf Coast 62 #2 Mercer 58

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Belmont 83 Florida Gulf Coast 69

Automatic Bid – BELMONT 27-7

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

Atlantic 10

1^st Round

#8 Massachusetts 92 #9 Duquesne 83

#5 St. Joe’s 80 #12 Charlotte 64

#7 LaSalle 80 #10 Richmond 72

#6 Dayton 67 #11 George Washington 50

Quarterfinals (Friday, March 9)

#1 Temple (24-6) vs. #8 Massachusetts (21-10)

#4 St. Bonaventure (17-11) vs. #5 St. Joe’s (20-12)

#2 St. Louis (24-6) vs. #7 LaSalle (21-11)

#3 Xavier (19-11) vs. #6 Dayton (20-11)

At-Large: Temple

Upper Bubble: St. Louis

Lower Bubble: Xavier, St. Joe’s, and Dayton

Big East

Opening Round

#9 Connecticut 81 #16 Dayton 67

#13 Pittsburgh 73 #12 St. John’s 59

#10 Seton Hall 79 #15 Providence 47

#14 Villanova 70 #11 Rutgers 49

2nd Round

#8 West Virginia (19-12) vs. #9 Connecticut (19-12)

#5 Georgetown (22-7) vs. #13 Pittsburgh (17-15)

#7 Louisville (22-9) vs. #10 Seton Hall (20-11)

#6 South Florida (19-12) vs. #14 Villanova (13-18)

At-Large: Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville, Cincinnati

Upper Bubble: West Virginia, Seton Hall, South Florida, Connecticut

Lower Bubble: None (Pitt is the only bottom half team with a chance to pull off five upsets and break through with an automatic bid.) South Florida could be in jeopardy if they are upset by Villanova.

Big Sky

Quarterfinals

#3 Portland St. 75 #6 Montana St. 53

#4 Eastern Washington 81 #5 Idaho St. 75

Semifinals

#1 Montana 74 #4 Eastern Washington 66

#2 Weber St. 69 #3 Portland St. 63

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Montana (24-6) vs. #2 Weber St. (24-5)

This is a one-bid league, but both Montana and Weber State are talented enough to win an opening round game in the NCAA Tournament.

Big South

Preliminary Round

#8 High Point 68 #9 Gardner-Webb 58

#7 VMI 55 #10 Radford 53

Quarterfinals

#1 UNC-Asheville 86 #8 High Point 61

#4 Charleston Sou. 88 #5 Liberty 74

#6 Winthrop 71 #3 Campbell 55

#7 VMI 85 #2 Coastal Carolina 68

Semifinals

#1 UNC-Asheville 91 #4 Charleston Sou. 64

#7 VMI 75 #6 Winthrop 55

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 UNC-Asheville 80 #7 VMI 64

Automatic Bid – UNC-ASHEVILLE 24-9

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

Big 12

Opening Round

#8 Oklahoma (15-15) vs. #9 Texas A&M (13-17)

#7 Oklahoma St. (14-17) vs. #10 Texas Tech (8-22)

At-Large: Kansas, Missouri, Iowa St., Baylor, Kansas St.

Upper Bubble: Texas

Lower Bubble: None (A Texas loss in the quarterfinals would move the Longhorns here.

Colonial Athletic

Opening Round

#9 UNC-Wilmington 70 #8 James Madison 59

#5 Delaware 72 #12 Towson St. 65

#6 Georgia St. 85 #11 Hofstra 50

#7 Northeastern 57 #10 William & Mary 49

Quarterfinals

#1 Drexel 59 #9 UNC-Wilmington 47

#4 Old Dominion 88 #5 Delaware 74

#3 George Mason 61 #6 Georgia St. 59

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 75 #10 William & Mary 65

Semifinals

#1 Drexel 68 #4 Old Dominion 51

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 74 #3 George Mason 64

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 59 #1 Drexel 56

Automatic Bid – VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 28-6

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – Drexel

Drexel has a chance of earning an at-large bid, but their RPI is on the low side at 68.

Conference USA

Opening Round

#5 U A B (14-15) vs. #12 Tulane (15-15)

#8 U T E P (14-16) vs. #9 Houston (15-14)

#7 Rice (17-14) vs. #10 East Carolina (14-15)

#6 Marshall (18-12) vs. #11 S M U (13-18)

At-Large: Memphis

Upper Bubble: Southern Miss

Lower Bubble: None

Central Florida has a chance to move up to the lower bubble with a run to the finals, but it would still be a remote shot if they lose in the Championship Game.

Horizon League

Opening Round

#4 Milwaukee 68 #9 Illinois-Chi. 55

#5 Butler 70 #8 Wright St. 52

#3 Detroit 80 #10 Loyola (Chi) 71

#6 Youngstown 77 #7 Green Bay 60

Quarterfinals

#5 Butler 71 #4 Milwaukee 49

#3 Detroit 93 #6 Youngstown St. 76

Semifinals

#1 Valparaiso 65 #5 Butler 46

#3 Detroit 63 #2 Cleveland St. 58

CHAMPIONSHIP

#3 Detroit 70 #1 Valparaiso 50

Automatic Bid – DETROIT 22-13

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

This is a one-bid league. Neither Valpo, Cleveland State nor Butler will earn at-large bids.

M A A C

Preliminary Round

#8 Marist 64 #9 St. Peter’s 57

#7 Niagara 80 #10 Canisius 70

Quarterfinals

#1 Iona 87 #8 Marist 63

#4 Fairfield 65 #5 Rider 63

#2 Loyola (MD) 86 #7 Niagara 73

#6 Siena 84 #3 Manhattan 82

Semifinals

#4 Fairfield 85 #1 Iona 75

#2 Loyola (MD) 70 #6 Siena 60

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Loyola (MD) 48 #4 Fairfield 44

Automatic Bid – LOYOLA (MD) 24-8

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

This is a one-bid league. Iona played their way out of the Big Dance and into the NIT.

M A C

Opening Round

#5 Eastern Michigan (14-17) vs. #12 Northern Illinois (4-25)

#8 Western Michigan (12-19) vs. #9 Ball St. (15-14)

#7 Toledo (16-15) vs. #10 (Miami (O) (9-20)

#6 Bowling Green (16-14) vs. #11 (Central Michigan (10-20)

2^nd Round

#8 Western Michigan (13-19) vs. #12 Northern Illinois (5-25)

#7 Toledo (17-15) vs. #11 Central Michigan (11-20)

This could develop into a two-bid league. Akron has moved up to #62 in the RPI and Ohio is #70. Ohio has a bye to the quarterfinals and Akron has two more byes to the semifinals.

M E A C

Opening Round

#8 Hampton 69 #9 Morgan St. 65

#5 North Carolina Central 60 #12 Md. Eastern Shore 43

#4 Bethune-Cookman 62 #13 South Carolina St. 53

#11 Florida A& M 74 #6 Coppin St. 72

#10 Howard 51 #7 North Carolina A&T 50

Quarterfinals

#1 Savannah St. (21-10) vs. #8 Hampton (11-20)

#4 Bethune-Cookman (16-16) vs. #5 North Carolina Central (17-14)

#2 Norfolk St. (22-9) vs. #7 Howard (10-20)

#3 Delaware St. (15-13) vs. #11 Florida A&M (9-22)

This is a one-bid league. If Savannah St. or Norfolk St. win the tournament, there is a chance for the winner to avoid the opening round in Dayton.

Missouri Valley

Opening Round

#8 Indiana St. 66 #9 Southern Illinois 51

#7 Drake 65 #10 Bradley 49

Quarterfinals

#1 Wichita St. 72 #8 Indiana St. 48

#4 Illinois St. 54 #5 Northern Iowa 42

#2 Creighton 68 vs. #7 Drake 61

#3 Evansville 72 vs. #6 Missouri St. 64

Semifinals

#4 Illinois St. 65 #1 Wichita St. 64

#2 Creighton 99 #3 Evansville 71

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Creighton 83 #4 Illinois St. 79 OT

Automatic Bid – Creighton 27-5

At-Large – Wichita St. 27-5

Bubble – None

Mountain West

Quarterfinals

#1 San Diego St. (24-6) vs. #8 Boise St. (13-16)

#4 Colorado St. (19-10) vs. #5 T C U (17-13)

#2 New Mexico (24-6) vs. #7 Air Force (13-15)

#3 U N L V (25-7) vs. #6 Wyoming (20-10)

At-Large: San Diego St., UNLV, New Mexico

Upper Bubble: Colorado St.

Lower Bubble: None

TCU and Wyoming lost too many times in February. Both teams can only get there by earning the automatic bid. Colorado State can secure a bid with a win over T C U.

Northeast

Quarterfinals

#1 Long Island 80 #8 Sacred Heart 68

#5 Quinnipiac 80 #4 St. Francis (NY) 72

#3 Robert Morris 87 #6 Monmouth 68

#2 Wagner 87 #7 Central Conn. St. 77

Semifinals

#1 Long Island 78 #5 Quinnipiac 75

#3 Robert Morris 71 #2 Wagner 64

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Long Island (23-8) vs. #3 Robert Morris (23-9)

This is a one-bid league.

Ohio Valley

Opening Round

#5 Southeast Missouri 75 #8 E. Kentucky 65

#7 Jacksonville St. 75 #6 Austin Peay 70

Quarterfinals

#4 Tennessee Tech 77 #5 Southeast Missouri 73

#3 Morehead St. 68 #7 Jacksonville St. 54

Semifinals

#1 Murray St. 78 #4 Tennessee Tech 58

#2 Tennessee St. 59 #3 Morehead St. 52

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Murray St. 54 #2 Tennessee St. 52

Automatic Bid – Murray St. 30-1

At-Large – None

Bubble – None

Murray State should receive a #4 or #5 seed, a #6 at worst.

Pac-12

Opening Round

#8 Washington St. (15-15) vs. #9 Oregon St. (17-13)

#5 U C L A (18-13) vs. #12 U S C (6-25)

#7 Stanford (20-10) vs. #10 Arizona St. (10-20)

#6 Colorado (19-11) vs. #11 Utah (6-24)

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: California, Washington, Arizona

Lower Bubble: Colorado

Patriot League

Quarterfinals

#1 Bucknell 87 #8 Navy 63

#5 Lafayette 84 #4 Holy Cross 76

#2 Lehigh 70 #7 Colgate 57

#3 American 57 #6 Army 40

Semifinals

#1 Bucknell 79 #5 Lafayette 52

#2 Lehigh 85 #3 American 66

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Bucknell 24-8 vs. #2 Lehigh 25-7

This is a one-bid league.

Southern

Opening Round

#5N Appalachian St. 93 #4S College of Charleston 81

#3N Western Carolina 68 #6S Citadel 56

#5S Furman 75 #4N Samford 66

#3S Georgia Southern 76 #6N Chattanooga 70

Quarterfinals

#1N UNC-Greensboro 65 #5N Appalachian St. 55

#3N Western Carolina 82 #2S Wofford 59

#1S Davidson 73 #5S Furman 54

#2N Elon 65 #3S Georgia Southern 58

Semifinals

#3N Western Carolina 82 #1N UNC-Greensboro 77

#1S Davidson 83 #2N Elon 67

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1S Davidson 93 #1N UNC-Greensboro 91

Automatic Bid – DAVIDSON 25-7

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

Davidson might not have earned a ticket as an at-large team. Tell that to Kansas coach Bill Self, and he would say you were crazy.

Southland

Quarterfinals

#1 UT-Arlington (23-7) vs. #8 Nicholls St. (10-19)

#4 McNeese St. (15-14) vs. #5 TX-San Antonio (18-13)

#2 Stephen F Austin (19-11) vs. #7 Sam Houston (13-18)

#3 Lamar (20-11) vs. #6 Northwestern State (LA) (16-15)

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: None

Texas-Arlington ran away from the field in the regular season standings, but the Mavericks did not run teams out of the gym. They are no shoo-in to cop the conference tournament. SF Austin is a worthy competitor, as is Lamar.

S W A C

Quarterfinals

#1 Mississippi Valley St. (18-12) vs. #8 Jackson St. (7-23)

#4 Alabama St. (12-18) vs. #5 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (10-21)

#2 Texas Southern (13-17) vs. #7 Alabama A&M (7-20)

#3 Prairie View (14-17) vs. #6 Alcorn St. (9-21)

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: None

In a conference where half of the members lost 20 or more games and 80% had losing records, there is a high probability that the winner of the league’s automatic bid will be playing in Dayton in the opening round. Top seed Mississippi Valley State went 1-11 outside of league play.

Summit League

Quarterfinals

#1 Oral Roberts 71 #8 I P F W 67

#4 Western Illinois 58 #5 North Dakota St. 53

#2 South Dakota St. 77 I U P U I 56

#6 Southern Utah 84 #3 Oakland 82

Semifinals

#4 Western Illinois 54 #1 Oral Roberts 53

#2 South Dakota St. 63 #6 Southern Utah 47

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 South Dakota St. 52 #4 Western Illinois 50

Automatic Bid – SOUTH DAKOTA ST. 27-7

At-Large Teams –None

Bubble – Oral Roberts

Sunbelt

Opening Round

#6 South Alabama 87 #11 Troy 81

#7 Western Kentucky 67 #10 Florida Int’l 63

#9 Arkansas St. 70 #8 Florida Atlantic 55

Quarterfinals

#9 Arkansas St. 64 #1 Middle Tennessee 61

#5 North Texas 65 #4 Louisiana-Lafayette 62

#7 Western Kentucky 68 #2 U A L R 63

#3 Denver 61 #6 South Alabama 50

Semifinals

#5 North Texas 76 #9 Arkansas St. 72

#7 Western Kentucky 67 #3 Denver 63

CHAMPIONSHIP

#7 Western Kentucky 74 #3 Denver 70

Automatic Bid –WESTERN KENTUCKY 15-18

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – Middle Tennessee

W A C

#1 Nevada (25-5) vs. #8 San Jose St. (9-21)

#4 Utah St. (17-14) vs. #5 Louisiana Tech (16-15)

#2 New Mexico St. (23-9) vs. #7 Fresno St. (13-19)

#3 Idaho (18-12) vs. #6 Hawaii (15-15)

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: Nevada

For Nevada to earn an at-large bid, all of the major conference tournaments need to be one by high seeds without any other lower bubble teams making a splash.

The dark horse here is Utah State. The 4^th-seeded Aggies have been there before and must be respected as a well-coached team that knows how to win.

West Coast

Opening Round

#8 Portland 74 #9 Santa Clara 70

2^nd Round

#5 San Francisco 87 #8 Portland 66

#6 San Diego 76 #7 Pepperdine 54

Quarterfinals

#5 San Francisco 67 #4 Loyola Marymount 60

#3 B Y U 73 vs. #6 San Diego 68

Semifinals

#1 Saint Mary’s 83 #5 San Francisco 78

#2 Gonzaga 77 #3 B Y U 58

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Saint Mary’s 78 #2 Gonzaga 74 OT

Automatic Bid – SAINT MARY’S 26-5

At-Large Teams – Gonzaga

Bubble – B Y U

A Look At The Remaining Conferences

A C C

Tournament Begins March 8 in Atlanta

At-Large: North Carolina, Duke, Florida St., Virginia

Upper Bubble: North Carolina St.

Lower Bubble: Virginia

Big Ten

Tournament Begins March 8 in Indianapolis

At-Large: Ohio St., Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue

Upper Bubble: Northwestern

Lower Bubble: None (Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois have too much ground to make up and need to win the tournament. The three teams have no chance of sneaking in with a loss in the Championship Game).

Big West

Tournament Begins March 8 in Anaheim

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: Long Beach St.

Lower Bubble: None

S E C

Tournament Begins March 8 in New Orleans

At-Large: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt

Upper Bubble: Alabama, Mississippi St.

Lower Bubble: Tennessee, Ole Miss

Tennessee and Ole Miss are the two hot teams other than Kentucky as the tournament commences. Should one of these teams make it to Sunday, it would be hard to keep them out of the field.

Next Update: Thursday, March 8

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March 5, 2012

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 5 Update

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: basketball, Big Dance, Bracketology, Championship, college, Conference, NCAA, tournament — piratings @ 3:59 am

Here is an updated look at tournament action to date with the dates and matchups for their next round. This includes all games played through Sunday, March 4.

America East

Preliminary Round

#9 Binghamton 73 #8 Md.-Balt. Co. 67

Quarterfinals

#1 Stony Brook 78 # 9 Binghamton 69

#4 Albany 63 #5 New Hampshire 45

#2 Vermont 50 #7 Maine 40

#6 Hartford 53 #3 Boston U 49

Semifinals

#1 Stony Brook 57 #4 Albany 55

#2 Vermont 77 #6 Hartford 73 2OT

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Stony Brook (21-8) vs. Vermont (22-11)

This is a one-bid league.

Atlantic Sun

Quarterfinals

#1 Belmont 76 #8 Jacksonville 62

#4 East Tennessee 68 #5 N. Florida 66

#2 Mercer 61 #7 Lipscomb 53

#6 Florida Gulf Coast 71 #3 S. Carolina Upstate 61

Semifinals

#1 Belmont 69 #4 East Tennessee 61

#6 Florida Gulf Coast 62 #2 Mercer 58

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Belmont 83 Florida Gulf Coast 69

Automatic Bid – BELMONT 27-7

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

Big Sky

Quarterfinals

#3 Portland St. 75 #6 Montana St. 53

#4 Eastern Washington 81 #5 Idaho St. 75

Semifinals (Tuesday)

#1 Montana (23-6) vs. #4 Eastern Washington (15-16)

#2 Weber St. (23-5) vs. #3 Portland St. 17-13

This is a one-bid league, but both Montana and Weber State are talented enough to win an opening round game in the NCAA Tournament.

Big South

Preliminary Round

#8 High Point 68 #9 Gardner-Webb 58

#7 VMI 55 #10 Radford 53

Quarterfinals

#1 UNC-Asheville 86 #8 High Point 61

#4 Charleston Sou. 88 #5 Liberty 74

#6 Winthrop 71 #3 Campbell 55

#7 VMI 85 #2 Coastal Carolina 68

Semifinals

#1 UNC-Asheville 91 #4 Charleston Sou. 64

#7 VMI 75 #6 Winthrop 55

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 UNC-Asheville 80 #7 VMI 64

Automatic Bid – UNC-ASHEVILLE 24-9

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

Colonial Athletic

Opening Round

#9 UNC-Wilmington 70 #8 James Madison 59

#5 Delaware 72 #12 Towson St. 65

#6 Georgia St. 85 #11 Hofstra 50

#7 Northeastern 57 #10 William & Mary 49

Quarterfinals

#1 Drexel 59 #9 UNC-Wilmington 47

#4 Old Dominion 88 #5 Delaware 74

#3 George Mason 61 #6 Georgia St. 59

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 75 #10 William & Mary 65

Semifinals

#1 Drexel 68 #4 Old Dominion 51

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 74 #3 George Mason 64

CHAMPIONSHIP (Monday)

#1 Drexel (26-5) vs. #2 Virginia Commonwealth (26-6)

The loser of this game should stand a decent chance of earning an at-large bid.

Horizon League

Opening Round

#4 Milwaukee 68 #9 Illinois-Chi. 55

#5 Butler 70 #8 Wright St. 52

#3 Detroit 80 #10 Loyola (Chi) 71

#6 Youngstown 77 #7 Green Bay 60

Quarterfinals

#5 Butler 71 #4 Milwaukee 49

#3 Detroit 93 #6 Youngstown St. 76

Semifinals

#1 Valparaiso 65 #5 Butler 46

#3 Detroit 63 #2 Cleveland St. 58

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Valparaiso (22-10) vs. #3 Detroit (21-13) – Tuesday, March 6

This is a one-bid league. Neither Valpo, Cleveland State nor Butler will earn at-large bids.

M A A C

Preliminary Round

#8 Marist 64 #9 St. Peter’s 57

#7 Niagara 80 #10 Canisius 70

Quarterfinals

#1 Iona 87 #8 Marist 63

#4 Fairfield 65 #5 Rider 63

#2 Loyola (MD) 86 #7 Niagara 73

#6 Siena 84 #3 Manhattan 82

Semifinals

#4 Fairfield 85 #1 Iona 75

#2 Loyola (MD) 70 #6 Siena 60

CHAMPIONSHIP (Monday)

#2 Loyola (MD) (22-8) vs. #4 Fairfield (18-13)

This is a one-bid league. Iona played their way out of the Big Dance and into the NIT.

M A C

Opening Round (Monday)

#5 Eastern Michigan (14-17) vs. #12 Northern Illinois (4-25)

#8 Western Michigan (12-19) vs. #9 Ball St. (15-14)

#7 Toledo (16-15) vs. #10 (Miami (O) (9-20)

#6 Bowling Green (16-14) vs. #11 (Central Michigan (10-20)

This is a one-bid league. The top five teams are in the East Division.

M E A C

Opening Round (Monday)

#8 Hampton (10-20) vs. #9 Morgan St. (9-19)

#5 North Carolina Central (16-14) vs. #12 Md. Eastern Shore (7-22)

#4 Bethune-Cookman (15-16) vs. #13 South Carolina St. (5-25)

#6 Coppin St. (14-15) vs. #11 Florida A&M (8-22)

#7 North Carolina A&T (12-19) vs. #10 Howard (10-20)

This is a one-bid league. If Savannah St. or Norfolk St. win the tournament, there is a chance for the winner to avoid the opening round in Dayton.

Missouri Valley

Opening Round

#8 Indiana St. 66 #9 Southern Illinois 51

#7 Drake 65 #10 Bradley 49

Quarterfinals

#1 Wichita St. 72 #8 Indiana St. 48

#4 Illinois St. 54 #5 Northern Iowa 42

#2 Creighton 68 vs. #7 Drake 61

#3 Evansville 72 vs. #6 Missouri St. 64

Semifinals

#4 Illinois St. 65 #1 Wichita St. 64

#2 Creighton 99 #3 Evansville 71

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Creighton 83 #4 Illinois St. 79 OT

Automatic Bid – Creighton 27-5

At-Large – Wichita St. 27-5

Bubble – None

Northeast

Quarterfinals

#1 Long Island 80 #8 Sacred Heart 68

#5 Quinnipiac 80 #4 St. Francis (NY) 72

#3 Robert Morris 87 #6 Monmouth 68

#2 Wagner 87 #7 Central Conn. St. 77

Semifinals

#1 Long Island 78 #5 Quinnipiac 75

#3 Robert Morris 71 #2 Wagner 64

CHAMPIONSHIP (Wednesday)

#1 Long Island (23-8) vs. #3 Robert Morris (23-9)

This is a one-bid league.

Ohio Valley

Opening Round

#5 Southeast Missouri 75 #8 E. Kentucky 65

#7 Jacksonville St. 75 #6 Austin Peay 70

Quarterfinals

#4 Tennessee Tech 77 #5 Southeast Missouri 73

#3 Morehead St. 68 #7 Jacksonville St. 54

Semifinals

#1 Murray St. 78 #4 Tennessee Tech 58

#2 Tennessee St. 59 #3 Morehead St. 52

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Murray St. 54 #2 Tennessee St. 52

Automatic Bid – Murray St. 30-1

At-Large – None

Bubble – None

Murray State should receive a #4 or #5 seed, a #6 at worst.

Patriot League

Quarterfinals

#1 Bucknell 87 #8 Navy 63

#5 Lafayette 84 #4 Holy Cross 76

#2 Lehigh 70 #7 Colgate 57

#3 American 57 #6 Army 40

Semifinals

#1 Bucknell 79 #5 Lafayette 52

#2 Lehigh 85 #3 American 66

CHAMPIONSHIP (Wednesday)

#1 Bucknell 24-8 vs. #2 Lehigh 25-7

This is a one-bid league.

Southern

Opening Round

#5N Appalachian St. 93 #4S College of Charleston 81

#3N Western Carolina 68 #6S Citadel 56

#5S Furman 75 #4N Samford 66

#3S Georgia Southern 76 #6N Chattanooga 70

Quarterfinals

#1N UNC-Greensboro 65 #5N Appalachian St. 55

#3N Western Carolina 82 #2S Wofford 59

#1S Davidson 73 #5S Furman 54

#2N Elon 65 #3S Georgia Southern 58

Semifinals

#3N Western Carolina 82 #1N UNC-Greensboro 77

#1S Davidson 83 #2N Elon 67

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1N UNC-Greensboro (13-19) vs. Davidson (24-7)

Davidson cannot get in as an at-large team, so Wildcats must win to dance.

Summit League

Quarterfinals

#1 Oral Roberts 71 #8 I P F W 67

#4 Western Illinois 58 #5 North Dakota St. 53

#2 South Dakota St. 77 I U P U I 56

#6 Southern Utah 84 #3 Oakland 82

Semifinals

#1 Oral Roberts (27-5) vs. #4 Western Illinois (16-13)

#2 South Dakota St. (25-7) vs. #6 Southern Utah (14-16)

If South Dakota St. and Oral Roberts advance to the Championship Game, and Oral Roberts’ loses, we should see two invitations doled out to the Summit League.

Sunbelt

Opening Round

#6 South Alabama 87 #11 Troy 81

#7 Western Kentucky 67 #10 Florida Int’l 63

#9 Arkansas St. 70 #8 Florida Atlantic 55

Quarterfinals

#9 Arkansas St. 64 #1 Middle Tennessee 61

#5 North Texas 65 #4 Louisiana-Lafayette 62

#7 Western Kentucky 68 #2 U A L R 63

#3 Denver 61 #6 South Alabama 50

Semifinals

#5 North Texas (17-13) vs. #9 Arkansas St. (14-19)

#3 Denver (22-8) vs. #7 Western Kentucky (13-18)

This is a one-bid league. The top two seeds lost in their first games in this unique tournament played in two separate gyms in the same building. Middle Tennessee may still be on the bubble, but they are more than likely headed to the NIT. If Arkansas St. or Western Kentucky win this tournament, they will be headed to the first round in Dayton.

West Coast

Opening Round

#8 Portland 74 #9 Santa Clara 70

2^nd Round

#5 San Francisco 87 #8 Portland 66

#6 San Diego 76 #7 Pepperdine 54

Quarterfinals

#5 San Francisco 67 #4 Loyola Marymount 60

#3 B Y U 73 vs. #6 San Diego 68

Semifinals

#1 Saint Mary’s 83 #5 San Francisco 78

#2 Gonzaga 77 #3 B Y U 58

CHAMPIONSHIP (Monday)

#1 Saint Mary’s 26-5 vs. #2 Gonzaga 25-5

This looks like a three-bid league, with the two finalists and BYU all headed to the Big Dance.

A Look At The Remaining Conferences

Atlantic 10

Tournament Begins March 6 on Campus Sites and moves to Atlantic City on March 9

At-Large: Temple

Upper Bubble: St. Louis

Lower Bubble: Xavier, St. Joe’s, and Dayton

A C C

Tournament Begins March 8 in Atlanta

At-Large: North Carolina, Duke, Florida St., Virginia

Upper Bubble: North Carolina St.

Lower Bubble: Virginia

Big East

Tournament Begins March 6 in New York City

At-Large: Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville, Cincinnati

Upper Bubble: West Virginia, Seton Hall, South Florida, Connecticut

Lower Bubble: None (Pitt is the only bottom half team with a chance to pull off five upsets and break through with an automatic bid.

Big Ten

Tournament Begins March 8 in Indianapolis

At-Large: Ohio St., Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue

Upper Bubble: Northwestern

Lower Bubble: None (Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois have too much ground to make up and need to win the tournament. The three teams have no chance of sneaking in with a loss in the Championship Game).

Big 12

Tournament Begins March 7 in Kansas City

At-Large: Kansas, Missouri, Iowa St., Baylor, Kansas St.

Upper Bubble: Texas

Lower Bubble: None (A Texas loss in the quarterfinals would move the Longhorns here.

Big West

Tournament Begins March 8 in Anaheim

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: Long Beach St.

Lower Bubble: None

Conference USA

Tournament Begins March 7 in Memphis

At-Large: Memphis

Upper Bubble: Southern Miss

Lower Bubble: None

Central Florida has a chance to move up to the lower bubble with a run to the finals, but it would still be a remote shot if they lose in the Championship Game.

Mountain West

Tournament Begins March 6 in Las Vegas

At-Large: San Diego St., UNLV, New Mexico

Upper Bubble: Colorado St.

Lower Bubble: None

TCU and Wyoming lost too many times in February. Both teams can only get there by earning the automatic bid.

Pac-12

Tournament Begins March 7 in Los Angeles

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: California, Washington, Arizona

Lower Bubble: Colorado

UCLA and Stanford could move to the lower bubble if they lost in the Championship Game. Colorado needs to win two games to have any chance at an at-large bid.

S E C

Tournament Begins March 8 in New Orleans

At-Large: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt

Upper Bubble: Alabama, Mississippi St.

Lower Bubble: Tennessee, Ole Miss

Tennessee and Ole Miss are the two hot teams other than Kentucky as the tournament commences. Should one of these teams make it to Sunday, it would be hard to keep them out of the field.

Southland

Tournament Begins March 7 in Katy, TX

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: None

Texas-Arlington ran away from the field in the regular season, but the Mavericks did not run teams out of the gym. They are no shoo-in to cop the conference tournament.

S W A C

Tournament Begins March 7 in Garland, TX

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: None

In a conference where half of the members lost 20 or more games and 80% had losing records, there is a high probability that the winner of the league’s automatic bid will be playing in Dayton in the opening round. Top seed Mississippi Valley State went 1-11 outside of league play.

W A C

Tournament Begins March 7 in Las Vegas

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: Nevada

For Nevada to earn an at-large bid, all of the major conference tournaments need to be one by high seeds without any other lower bubble teams making a splash.

Next Update: Wednesday March 7

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March 2, 2012

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–1st Update

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: basketball, Big Dance, Bracketology, Championship, college, Conference, NCAA, tournament — piratings @ 10:16 am

Conference Tournament action has begun in several conferences with more set to tip off this weekend. Here is a look at tournament action to date with the dates and matchups for their next round.

America East

Preliminary Round

#9Binghamton73 #8 Md.-Balt.Co.67

Quarterfinals (Saturday)

#1 Stony Brook (20-8) vs. # 9Binghamton(2-28)

#4Albany(18-13) vs. #5New Hampshire(13-15)

#2Vermont(20-11) vs. #7Maine(12-16)

#3BostonU (16-15) vs. #6Hartford(8-21)

Atlantic Sun

Quarterfinals

#1Belmont76 #8Jacksonville62

#4 East Tennessee 68 #5N. Florida66

#2 Mercer 61 #7 Lipscomb 53

#6FloridaGulfCoast71 #3S. CarolinaUpstate 61

Semifinals (Friday)

#1Belmont(25-7) vs. #4East Tennessee(17-13)

#2 Mercer (22-10) vs. #6FloridaGulfCoast(14-16)

Big South

Preliminary Round

#8High Point68 #9 Gardner-Webb 58

#7 VMI 55 #10 Radford 53

Quarterfinals

#1 UNC-Asheville 86 #8High Point61

#4CharlestonSou. 88 #5Liberty74

#6Winthrop71 #3Campbell55

#7 VMI 85 #2 CoastalCarolina68

Semifinals

#1 UNC-Asheville 91 #4CharlestonSou. 64

#7 VMI 75 #6Winthrop55

Championship Game (Saturday @ Noon EST)

#1 UNC-Asheville (23-9) vs. #7 VMI (17-15)

Horizon League

Opening Round

#4Milwaukee68 #9 Illinois-Chi. 55

#5Butler70 #8 WrightSt.52

#3Detroit80 #10 Loyola (Chi) 71

#6Youngstown77 #7Green Bay60

Quarterfinals (Friday)

#4Milwaukee(20-12) vs. #5Butler(19-13)

#3Detroit(19-13) vs.#6 Youngstown St.(16-14)

M A A C

Preliminary Round (Friday)

#8 Marist (13-17) vs. #9St.Peter’s (5-25)

#7Niagara(13-18) vs. #10 Canisius (5-24)

Missouri Valley

Opening Round

#8 Indiana St.66 #9Southern Illinois51

#7 Drake 65 #10 Bradley 49

Quarterfinals (Friday)

#1 Wichita St.(26-4) vs.#8 Indiana St.(18-13)

#4 Illinois St.(18-12) vs. #5Northern Iowa(19-12)

#2 Creighton (25-5) vs. #7 Drake (17-14)

#3Evansville(15-14) vs.#6 Missouri St.(15-15)

Northeast

Quarterfinals

#1Long Island80 #8 Sacred Heart 68

#5 Quinnipiac 80 #4St.Francis (NY) 72

#3 Robert Morris 87 #6 Monmouth 68

#2 Wagner 87 #7 CentralConn.St.77

Semifinals (Sunday)

#1Long Island(23-8) vs. #5 Quinnipiac (18-12)

#2 Wagner (25-5) vs. #3 Robert Morris (23-9)

Ohio Valley

Opening Round

#5 Southeast Missouri 75 #8E. Kentucky65

#7 Jacksonville St.75 #6AustinPeay 70

Quarterfinals

#4TennesseeTech 77 #5Southeast Missouri73

#3 Morehead St.68 #7 Jacksonville St.54

Semifinals (Friday)

Note: This tournament could be delayed due to severe weather threat in Nashville)

#1 Murray St.(28-1) vs. #4TennesseeTech (19-12)

#2 Tennessee St.(19-11) vs.#3 Morehead St.(18-14)

Patriot League

Quarterfinals

#1 Bucknell 87 #8 Navy 63

#5Lafayette84 #4 Holy Cross 76

#2 Lehigh 70 #7 Colgate 57

#3 American 57 #6 Army 40

Semifinals (Saturday)

#1 Bucknell (23-8) vs. #5Lafayette(13-17)

#2 Lehigh (24-7) vs. #3 American (20-10)

West Coast

Opening Round

#8Portland74 #9Santa Clara70

2^nd Round

#5San Francisco87 #8Portland66

#6San Diego76 #7 Pepperdine 54

Quarterfinals (Friday)

#4 Loyola Marymount (19-11) vs. #5San Francisco(19-12)

#3 B Y U (24-7) vs. #6San Diego(13-17)

Mid-Major Teams in Top 65 of RPI (On the Bubble)

Sure Things

11Temple

12WichitaState

16 SouthernMississippi

17 U N L V

18Memphis

High Chances

20 Colorado St.

24 Gonzaga

25 Creighton

26 San Diego St.

29St. Louis

Good Chances

31 Murray St.

33New Mexico

36 Long Beach St.

37 Saint Mary’s

38 Harvard

Need To Do Some Work

43 Oral Roberts

44Iona

47 tie Middle Tennessee

47 tie Nevada

52 B Y U

Need A Miracle

53St.Joe’s

55 Xavier

58 South Dakota St.

Probably Need To Earn Automatic Bid

61VirginiaCommonwealth

62Northern Iowa

63 tie Drexel

63 tie Belmont

65 CentralFlorida

Major Conference At-large Candidates

A C C

Sure Things

North Carolina

Duke

FloridaState

Need To Do Some Work

Virginia

Miami(Fla)

North Carolina St.

Need A Miracle

Clemson

Big East

Sure Things

Syracuse

Marquette

Georgetown

Louisville

Notre Dame

Need To Do Some Work

Connecticut

Seton Hall

West Virginia

Cincinnati

South Florida

Big Ten

Sure Things

MichiganState

OhioState

Michigan

Wisconsin

Indiana

Need To Do Some Work

Purdue

Need A Miracle

Northwestern

Big 12

Sure Things

Kansas

Missouri

Baylor

IowaState

KansasState

Need To Do Some Work

Texas

Pac-12

Sure Things

Need To Do Some Work

California

Oregon

Washington

Need A Miracle

Arizona

Next Update: Sunday, March 4

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February 26, 2012

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments Guide

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: basketball, Big Dance, Conference, NCAA, tournament — piratings @ 7:09 pm

Selection Sunday is just two weeks away, and it is time to start looking at the conference tournaments. It can be hard to find one source with all the details on the conference tournaments, so we here at the Pi-Rate Ratings have compiled all the particulars for you.

Conference tournament action kicks off Monday night with the Big South Tournament’s opening round. It concludes on March 11, Selection Sunday.

Here is a breakdown of each conference plus a list of which teams are in the running to receive at-large bids should they fail to win the automatic bid.

The Selection Committee will be looking at RPI, Strength of Schedule, and results against the top 50 and top 100 RPI-rated teams. How a team performed in its last 10 games is no longer part of the equation, but how a team performed on the road all season is a factor.

America East

Date: March 1-4, 10

Location: Hartford, CT (Championship at Higher Seed)

Teams in Tournament: 9

Estimated Dance Tickets: 1

TV: Semifinals on ESPN3, Championship on ESPN2, All others online free at www.americaeast.com

Stony Brook (14-2/20-8) secured the number one seed with a win over Maine Sunday. Vermont (13-3/20-11) is the number two seed. These two teams are in a class by themselves in the A-East.

Boston U. (12-4/16-15) is the number three seed, while Albany (9-7/18-13) is the number four seed.

Any of these four teams can win the conference tournament, and only the champion will earn a bid to the Big Dance.

Atlantic 10

Date: March 6, 9-11

Location: Atlantic City, NJ (opening round at higher seed)

Teams in Tournament: 12

Estimated Dance Tickets: 2 or 3

TV: Quarterfinals on CBS College Regional; Semifinals on CBS College Network; Championship on CBS

Temple (11-3/22-6) is a lock to make the Big Dance. St. Louis 10-4/22-6) is on the high bubble. If another team wins the conference tournament, the A-10 could send three members to the NCAA Tournament.

Xavier (9-5/18-10) and St. Joe’s (9-6/19-11) are off the bubble, but those two along with Dayton (8-6/18-10), St. Bonaventure (9-5/16-10), UMass (8-6/19-9), and LaSalle (7-7/18-11), are talented enough to get hot in a couple of weeks and win the automatic bid.

Atlantic Coast

Date: March 8-11

Location: Atlanta

Teams in Tournament: 12

Estimated Dance Tickets: 4 to 6

TV: Opening Round on ESPN-U; Quarterfinals on ESPN2; Semifinals & Finals on ESPN

Duke (12-2/25-4), North Carolina (12-2/25-4), and Florida State (10-4/19-9) are locks to make the field of 68. Virginia (8-6/21-7) is firmly on the bubble. Miami (8-6/17-10) and North Carolina State (7-7/18-11) are on the bubble and need some key wins to make the tournament as at-large teams.

Atlantic Sun

Date: February 29 to March 3

Location: Macon, GA

Teams in Tournament: 8 (9^th & 10^th place teams left out)

Estimated Dance Tickets: 1

TV: Quarterfinals on ESPN3; Semifinals on A-Sun TV & Comcast Sports South; Championship on ESPN2

The bracket for this tournament is set. The opening round is Wednesday.

Atlantic Sun Tournament Bracket @ Macon, GA (Mercer)

All Times EST

Quarterfinals

1-Belmont (16-2/24-7) vs. 8-Jacksonville (6-12/8-21) Wed. F.29 2:30 PM

4-East Tennessee (10-8/16-13) vs. 5-North Florida (10-8/16-13) Thu. M.1 2:30 PM

3-USC-Upstate (13-5/20-11) vs. 6-Florida Gulf Coast (8-10/13-16) Thu M.1 8:30 PM

2-Mercer (13-5/21-10) vs. 7-Lipscomb (8-10/13-17) Wed. F. 29 8:30 PM

Semifinals—Friday, March 2

Belmont-Jacksonville winner vs. East Tennessee-North Florida winner 6:00 PM

USC-Upstate-Florida Gulf Coast winner vs. Mercer-Lipscomb winner 8:30 PM

Championship—Saturday, March 3 7:00 PM

Belmont swept Mercer, but can the Bruins beat the Bears on their home court twice in one week? This tournament produces many upsets, but usually one of the top two seeds wins the championship.

Big 12

Date: March 7-10

Location: Kansas City

Teams in Tournament: 10

Estimated Dance Tickets: 3-6

TV: Opening Round on Big 12 Network; Quarterfinals half on ESPN2 & half on Big 12 Network; Semifinals on Big 12 Network & ESPN-U; Championship on ESPN

The barbecue sales will soar as fans of the 10 teams hit KC and head over to Gates and Bryant Barbecue up in the Brooklyn area where the old Kansas City Municipal Stadium once stood.

Kansas (14-2/24-5), Missouri (12-4/25-4), and Baylor (11-5/24-5) have already secured at-large bids. Iowa State (11-5/21-8) has been one of the nation’s top surprises, and first year coach and Cyclone alum Fred Hoiberg could earn National Coach of the Year honors. ISU is on the bubble. Kansas State (8-8/19-9) moved from questionable status to central bubble status with two big wins this week. Texas (8-8/18-11) has work to do.

Big East

Date: March 6-10

Location: New York City

Teams in Tournament: 16

Estimated Dance Tickets: 6-9

TV: Opening Round half on ESPN2 & half on ESPN-U; All other games on ESPN

Ah, New York! What better place to view five days of excellent basketball while munching on the best deli delicacies in the world? Watch out for those onion rolls and knishes; there are more calories in a couple of those than a steak!

Syracuse (16-1/29-1) will be a number one seed. Marquette (13-3/24-5) won’t be too far behind in the seeding. Notre Dame (12-4/20-9), Georgetown (11-5/21-6) and Louisville (10-6/22-7) are locks to get bids. Things get murky after these five.

South Florida (11-5/18-11) is on the higher end of the bubble, while Cincinnati (10-5/20-8) is on the bottom of the bubble with an RPI in the low 70’s. Their resume is 50-50.

West Virginia (7-9/17-12) and Connecticut (7-9/17-11) are below .500 in the league, but both are squarely on the bubble with higher RPIs than Cinti.

South Florida (10-5/17-11) and Seton Hall (8-9/19-10) have stayed under the radar for most of the year, but both teams are on the bubble. The five days at Madison Square Garden should allow one to three or four of these non-lock teams to work their way into at-large status. Of course, if one of these, or even a bottom eight team could win five games in five days like UConn did last year.

The bracket for the Big East is unique. On the opening day, seeds 9 through 16 play, eliminating four to lower the remaining teams to 12. On the second day, seeds 5 through 8 join the four winners from day one to lower the remaining teams to eight. The top four seeds do not play until the quarterfinals on the third day.

Big Sky

Date: March 3, 6-7

Location: 1^st Round at Higher Seeds; Semis and Championship at Regular Season Champion (Weber State or Montana)

Teams in Tournament: 6 (7, 8, and 9 left out)

Estimated Dance Tickets: 1

TV: Semifinals on Altitude Network; Championship on ESPN2

In this conference tournament, the number six seed plays at the number three seed, and the number five seed plays at the number four seed. The top two seeds receive byes to the semifinals.

In the semis, the number one seed hosts the lower-seeded first round winner, while the number two seed plays the higher-seeded first round winner on the number one seed’s floor.

Weber State (14-1/23-4) and Montana (14-1/22-6) have both won 17 of their last 18 games. The Wildcats and Grizzlies hook up Tuesday night at Montana for the regular season championship. The winner will host the semis and finals of the conference tournament. Earlier this year, Weber State trounced the Grizzlies 80-64, but Montana outscores conference opponents by 18.6 points per game at Dahlberg Arena.

Weber State could move into the bubble talk. If the Bulldogs win Tuesday and lose to Montana in the finals of the conference tournament, they might have a really slim chance at sneaking in as one of the last four in.

Big South

Date: February 27, 29, March 1, 3

Location: 1^st round and championship at higher seeds; quarterfinals and semifinals at regular season champion

Teams in Tournament: 10 (#11 left out)

Estimated Dance Tickets: 1

TV: Opening and quarterfinal rounds on Big South Network, Semifinals on ESPN-U, Championship on ESPN2

The bracket for this tournament is set. The opening round is tomorrow.

Big South Tournament Bracket

All Times EST

Opening Round—Monday, February 27

10-Radford (2-16/6-25) at 7- VMI (8-10/14-15) 7:00 PM

9-Gardner-Webb (6-12/12-19) at 8-High Point (8-10/12-17) 7:30 PM

Quarterfinals—February 29 at UNC-Asheville

2-Coastal Carolina (12-6/19-10) vs. VMI/Radford Winner 12:00 Noon

3-Campbell (11-7/17-14) vs. 6-Winthrop (8-10/11-19) 2:00 PM

1-UNC-Asheville (16-2/21-9) vs. Gardner-Webb/High Point Winner 6:00 PM

4-Charleston Southern (11-7/18-11) vs. 5-Liberty (9-9/14-17) 8:00 PM

Semifinals—March 1

Coastal Carolina/VMI/Radford Winner vs. Campbell/Winthrop Winner 6:00 PM

UNC-Asheville/Gardner-Webb/High Point Winner vs. Charleston Southern/Liberty Winner 8:00 PM

Championship— March 3 12 Noon

UNC-Asheville is at #124 in the RPI, and there is no way the Bulldogs can creep onto the bubble. The champion of this tournament will be a #15 or #16 seed in the Big Dance.

Big Ten

Date: March 8-11

Location: Indianapolis

Teams in Tournament: 12

Estimated Dance Tickets: 5-8

TV: Opening Round half on Big Ten Network & half on ESPN2; Quarterfinals half on Big Ten Network & half on ESPN; Semifinals and Finals on CBS

The Big Ten is the top power conference this year, but there are only five sure at-large teams as of today. Michigan State (13-3/24-5), Ohio State (11-5/23-6), Michigan (11-5/21-8), Indiana (9-7/22-7), and Wisconsin (10-6/21-8) are definitely in the Dance.

Purdue (9-7/19-10) is on the high end of the bubble; one more win should be enough. Northwestern (7-9/17-11) is on the lower middle of the bubble (the Wildcats have never been in the NCAA Tournament). An upset at home over Ohio State on Wednesday could be enough, but the Wildcats need to advance past the first round in Indianapolis to have a shot.

Illinois (6-10/17-12) and Minnesota (5-11/17-12) are off the bubble and need to still be playing on Selection Sunday to have any chance to make the field. Bruce Weber’s job status in Champaign-Urbana is in serious jeopardy.

Big West

Date: March 8-10

Location: Anaheim, CA

Teams in Tournament: 8 (9^th team left out)

Estimated Dance Tickets: 1 or 2

TV: Semifinals on ESPN-U; Championship on ESPN2

Note: Tournament will re-seed after the opening round, just like the NFL Playoffs.

Long Beach State (14-0/21-7) wrapped up the regular season title many days ago. The 49ers are a definite bubble team with an RPI of #34.

Cal State Fullerton (10-4/19-8) will have a shot to upset the 49ers at home to close out the regular season. It may be better for the Titans to lose a close game and gain the confidence to win in the tournament a week later than to upset LBSU and face their wrath for all the marbles.

UC-Santa Barbara (10-4/16-9) is the third quality team in the league. The Gauchos did not compete with the 49ers in their two losses.

Colonial Athletic

Date: March 2-5

Location: Richmond, VA

Teams in Tournament: 12

Estimated Dance Tickets: 1 or 2

TV: Quarterfinals & Semifinals on CAA-TV & Comcast Sports regional networks. Championship on ESPN or ESPN2

The bracket for this tournament is set. The opening round commences on Friday, March 2.

Colonial Athletic Association Tournament–Richmond, VA

All Times EST

Opening Round—March 2

8-James Madison(5-13/12-19) vs. 9-UNC-Wilmington (5-13/9-20) 12:00 Noon

5-Delaware (12-6/17-12) vs. 12-Towson (1-17/1-30) 2:30 PM

7-Northeastern (9-9/13-16) vs. 10-William & Mary (4-14/6-25) 6:00 PM

6-Georgia State (11-7/20-10) vs. 11-Hofstra (3-15/10-21) 8:30 PM

Quarterfinals—March 3

1-Drexel (16-2/25-5) vs. James Madison/UNC-Wilmington 12:00 Noon

4-Old Dominion (13-5/19-12) vs. Delaware/Towson Winner 2:30 PM

2-Va. Commonwealth (15-3/25-6) vs. Northeastern/William & Mary Winner 6:00 PM

3-George Mason (14-4/23-8) vs. Georgia State/Hofstra Winner 8:30 PM

Semifinals—March 4

Drexel/JMU/UNCW Winner vs. Old Dominion/Delaware/Towson Winner 2:00 PM

VCU/Northeastern/Wm. & Mary Winner 4:30 PM

Championship—March 5 7:00 PM

The CAA may get a second bid as long as Virginia Commonwealth is in the mix. The Rams will get the benefit of the doubt coming off a Final Four trip in 2011 and following it up with an even better team this year.

Drexel is a few spots behind VCU in the RPI, but the Dragons are the better team this year. Bruiser Flint’s team proved just how strong they were with the blowout win over Cleveland State in the Bracket Buster. The Dragons have won 17 games in a row and 23 out of 24!

George Mason and Old Dominion can compete for the tournament championship, while the rest of the league figures to be cannon fodder for the top four.

Conference USA

Date: March 7-10

Location: Memphis

Teams in Tournament: 12

Estimated Dance Tickets: 2 or 3

TV: Quarterfinals & Semifinals on CBS Sports Network; Championship on CBS

Memphis (11-3/21-8) and Southern Mississippi (10-4/23-6) appear to be safe at-large teams, which means if someone other than the Tigers or Golden Eagles wins the conference tournament, three teams would receive bids.

Tulsa (10-4/17-11) always seems to be so close yet so far at Dance time. The Golden Hurricane have yet to play Memphis, and they lost in overtime at Southern Miss.

Central Florida (9-5/20-8) owns victories over both Southern Miss and Memphis. Marshall (8-6/17-11) has the talent to win the tournament, but the Thundering Herd has not reached their potential.

Horizon League

Date: February 28-29, March 2-3, 6

Location: 1^st round & Championship at higher seeds, Quarterfinals & Semifinals at regular season champion (Valparaiso)

Teams in Tournament: 10

Estimated Dance Tickets: 1 or 2

TV: Opening Round & Quarterfinals free online at http://www.horizonleague.org/mens-basketball.html; Semifinals on ESPN-U; Championship on ESPN

The bracket for this tournament has been set. Opening round action begins Tuesday.

Horizon League Tournament

All Times EST

Opening Round—February 28

Game 1: 10-Loyola (Chi) (1-17/7-22) at 3-Detroit (11-7/18-13) 7:00 PM

Game 2: 7-Green Bay (10-8/15-14) at 6-Youngstown St.(10-8/15-14) 7:00 PM

Game 3: 9-Illinois-Chicago (3-15/8-21) at 4-Milwaukee (11-7/19-12) 8:00 PM

Game 4: 8-Wright State (7-11/13-18) at 5-Butler (11-7/18-13) 7:00 PM

Quarterfinals—March 2

Game 5: Game 1 Winner vs. Game 2 Winner 6:00 PM

Game 6: Game 3 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner 8:30 PM

Semifinals—March 3

Game 7: 2-Cleveland State (12-6/22-9) vs. Game 5 Winner 6:00 PM

Game 8: 1-Valparaiso (14-4/21-10) vs. Game 6 Winner 8:30 PM

Championship—March 6 @ Higher Seed 9:00 PM

Cleveland State was once a near sure bet to qualify for at-large status, but the Vikings fell apart after a wonderful start. CSU still has an outside chance to make it in as one of the last four in if the Vikings lose to Valpo in the Championship Game.

Butler appears to be a very long shot this year. The Bulldogs will have to win twice just to get to the semifinal round to face Valpo.

M A A C

Date: March 2-5

Location: Springfield, MA

Teams in Tournament: 10

Estimated Dance Tickets: 1 or 2

TV: Quarterfinals & Semifinals on ESPN3; Championship on ESPN2

Iona (15-3/24-6) is number 37 in the current RPI, so the Gaels stand a good chance of getting an at-large bid if they lose in the conference tournament championship.

Loyola (MD) (13-5/21-8), Manhattan (12-6/20-11), and Fairfield (12-5/17-12) would make for quite an interesting semifinal round if the trio could join Iona.

M A C

Date: March 5, 7-10

Location: Opening Round at higher seeds, all others at Cleveland

Teams in Tournament: 12

Estimated Dance Tickets: 1 or 2

TV: 2^nd Round, Quarterfinals, and Semifinals on Sports Time Ohio; Championship on ESPN2

The top five MAC teams reside in the East Division. Akron (12-2/20-9) was the only team with a chance to earn an at-large bid prior to their slaughter to Ohio U Sunday. The Zips were number 59 in the RPI, but that ranking will fall.

Buffalo (10-4/17-9), Ohio (10-4/23-6), Kent State (9-5/19-9), and Bowling Green (8-6/15-13) are the other four quality East Division teams. It will be an interesting tournament.

M E A C

Date: March 6-10

Location: Winston-Salem, NC

Teams in Tournament: 13

Estimated Dance Tickets: 1

TV: Championship on ESPN2

The MEAC has two teams capable of pulling off an opening round win. Savannah State (12-2/19-10) is riding an 11-game winning streak. The Tigers have outscored their opponents 70.8 to 52.5 in this run.

Norfolk State (11-3/20-9) penned one of the two losses on Savannah State. The Spartans went 9-6 outside the MEAC, including wins over Drexel and Long Island and a two-point loss to Marquette.

The bracket is formatted to give the top two seeds a much easier path to the title game. Seeds 8-9, 4-13, 5-12, 7-10, and 6-11 play on March 6. The number one seed then plays the winner of 8-9, and the number two seed plays the winner of 7-10 on March 7. The number three seed plays the winner of 6-11 on March 8, giving 6 or 11 an extra day’s rest. The 4-13 winner plays the 5-12 winner on March 8 as well.

The semifinals take place on March 9, giving the top two seeds an extra day of rest.

Missouri Valley

Date: March 1-4

Location: St. Louis (Arch Madness)

Teams in Tournament: 10

Estimated Dance Tickets: 2 or 3

TV: Championship Game on CBS; all others on MVC TV Network

The bracket for this tournament is set. Opening round play begins Thursday.

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament—St. Louis

All Times CST

Opening Round—March 1

Game 1: 8-Indiana State (8-10/17-13) vs. 9-Southern Illinois (5-13/8-22) 6:00 PM

Game 2: 7-Drake (9-9/16-14) vs. 10-Bradley (2-16/7-24) 8:30 PM

Quarterfinals—March 2

Game 3: 1-Wichita State (16-2/26-4) vs. Game 1 Winner 12 Noon

Game 4: 4-Illinois State (9-9/18-12) vs. 5-Northern Iowa (9-9/19-12) 2:30 PM

Game 5: 2-Creighton (14-4/25-5) vs. Game 2 Winner 6:00 PM

Game 6: 3-Evansville (9-9/15-14) vs. 6-Missouri State (9-9/16-15) 8:30 PM

Semifinals—March 3

Game 3 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner 1:30 PM

Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner 4:00 PM

Championship—March 4 1:00 PM

This tournament is definitely one to watch. Wichita State has Final Four potential; the shockers are every bit as strong as the last two Butler teams.

Creighton has the big star in Doug McDermott, who averages better than 23 points and 8 rebounds per game, while shooting almost 61% from the field, better than 80% at the charity stripe, and 48% from behind the arc.

Mountain West

Date: March 8-10

Location: Las Vegas

Teams in Tournament: 8

Estimated Dance Tickets: 3 or 4

TV: Quarterfinals on The Mountain Network; Semifinals on CBS Sports Network; Championship on NBC Sports Network

This will be one of the best conference tournaments and not because it is in Vegas. Three teams, UNLV (8-4/24-6), New Mexico (8-4/22-6), and San Diego State (8-4/22-6) have Dance tickets coming. TCU (7-5/17-11), Colorado State (6-6/17-10), and Wyoming (5-7/19-9) all have the talent to win the tournament.

Colorado State is actually number 24 in the RPI, but if the season ended today, we believe the Rams would be the highest-rated RPI team left out.

Northeast

Date: March 1, 4-7

Location: All games at higher seed

Teams in Tournament: 8 (teams 9 through 12 left out)

Estimated Dance Tickets: 1

TV: Semifinals on MSG Network and Fox College Sports; Championship on ESPN2

The Bracket for this Tournament is set. Quarterfinal action begins Thursday. After quarterfinals, the bracket is re-seeded so that the highest remaining seed plays the lowest remaining seed.

Quarterfinals
Thursday, March 1

#8 Sacred Heart (8-10/14-17) at #1 Long Island (16-2/22-8) 7:00 pm EST
#7 Central Connecticut (10-8/13-15) at #2 Wagner (15-3/24-5) 7:00 pm EST
#6 Monmouth (10-8/12-19) at #3 Robert Morris (13-5/22-9) 7:00 pm EST
#5 Quinnipiac (10-8/17-12) at #4 St. Francis (NY) (12-6/15-14) 7:00 pm EST

Semifinals
Sunday, March 4

Lowest Remaining Seed at Highest Remaining Seed, 12:00 or 6:00 pm EST (TBD by Television)

3rd Highest Remaining Seed at 2nd Highest Remaining Seed, 12:00 or 6:00 pm EST (TBD by Television)

Championship
Wednesday, March 7 7:00 pm EST on ESPN2

This conference turned topsy-turvy on the final day of the regular season. LIU lost by 28 at Monmouth and Wagner lost by 17 at Central Connecticut. Number three Robert Morris and Number four St. Francis also lost.

Things should return to normal, as the big two play at home where they are close to unbeatable. Look for Wagner to head to Brooklyn to face Long Island in the title game, and it will be one you do not want to miss.

Ohio Valley

Date: February 29 to March 3

Location: Nashville

Teams in Tournament: 8

Estimated Dance Tickets: 1 or 2

TV: Opening round and Quarterfinals on www.OVCSports.TV . Semifinal games will both air on ESPN3 and one will also air on ESPN-U. The Championship Game will air on ESPN2

The bracket for this tournament is set. Opening round play begins Wednesday.

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament—Nashville

All Times CST

Opening Round—February 29

Game 1: 5-Southeast Missouri (9-7/14-15) vs. 8-Eastern Kentucky (7-9/16-15) 6:00 PM

Game 2: 6-Austin Peay (8-8/12-19) vs. 7-Jacksonville St.(8-8/14-17) 8:00 PM

Quarterfinals—March 1

Game 3: 4-Tennessee Tech (9-7/18-12) vs. Game 1 Winner 6:00 PM

Game 4: 3-Morehead State (10-6/17-14) vs. Game 2 Winner 8:00 PM

Semifinals—March 2

Game 5: 1-Murray State (15-1/28-1) vs. Game 3 Winner 6:00 PM

Game 6: 2-Tennessee State (11-5/19-11) vs. Game 4 Winner 8:00 PM

Championship—March 3 1:00 PM

If the Racers take the OVC Tournament, Murray State should be the higher seed in an opening round NCAA Tournament game. If they do not emerge as the tournament champion, they still should earn an at-large bid.

Tennessee State won at Murray, but the Racers won big in Nashville against the Tigers. It will be a major upset for any team other than Murray State to win.

Pac-12

Date: March 7-10

Location: Los Angeles

Teams in Tournament: 12

Estimated Dance Tickets: 2 or 3

TV: Championship on CBS; All others on Fox Sports

California (13-4/23-7) was number 35 in the RPI prior to losing to Colorado Sunday, but we believe the Selection Committee will take the Bears if they do not win the automatic bid.

Washington (13-3/20-8) may be the stronger team at this point in the season, but the Huskies are not guaranteed an at-large bid. Their RPI rating is 52, and a couple of losses could drop them off the bubble.

Oregon (11-5/20-8) is just one behind UW in the RPI Ratings, but the Ducks will not earn an at-large bid unless they beat Colorado and Utah to close out the season and then advance at least to the semifinals in the tournament.

Arizona (12-5/21-9) is flying under the radar and not on the bubble. The Wildcats have the talent to compete for the tournament championship.

Colorado (11-5/19-9) will be a force to be reckoned with in the conference tournament, but the Buffaloes look more like an NIT team again this year.

Patriot League

Date: February 29, March 3, March 7

Location: All Games at Higher Seed

Teams in Tournament: 8

Estimated Dance Tickets: 1

TV: Semifinals and Championship on CBS Sports Network

The Bracket for this tournament is set. The Quarterfinal round begins Wednesday.

Patriot League Tournament—Higher Seeds Host All Games

All Games EST

Quarterfinals—February 29

8-Navy (0-14/3-25) at 1-Bucknell (12-2/22-8) 7:00 PM

5-Lafayette (7-7/12-17) at 4-Holy Cross (9-5/15-13) 7:00 PM

7-Colgate (2-12/8-21) at 2-Lehigh (11-3/23-7) 7:00 PM

6-Army (5-9/12-17) at 3-American (10-4/19-10) 7:30 PM

Semifinals—March 3

Navy/Bucknell winner vs. Lafayette/Holy Cross winner 2:00 or 4:30 PM

Colgate/Lehigh winner vs. Army/American winner 2:00 or 4:30 PM

Championship—March 7 7:00 PM

Bucknell has a relatively easy path to the Championship Game, where they would be the host team. In the other half of the bracket, Lehigh and American split in the regular season, and a semifinal game at Lehigh would be exciting.

S E C

Date: March 8-11

Location: New Orleans

Teams in Tournament: 12

Estimated Dance Tickets: 4-6

TV: First Two Rounds on SEC Network, Semifinals and Finals on ABC

Kentucky (14-0/28-1) has already clinched the top seed, and the Blue Mist will descend on the French Quarter. The SEC Tournament should be nothing more than a Big Dance tune-up for the Wildcats.

Florida (10-4/22-7) and Vanderbilt (9-5/20-9) have secured at-large bids, while Alabama (8-6/19-9) maybe needs one more win. After that, there are five teams still in contention for an at-large bid. Any of the quintet will need to win four more games to have any chance at an at-large bid. They are: Tennessee (8-6/16-13), LSU (7-7/17-11), Mississippi State (6-8/17-10), Arkansas (6-8/18-11), and Ole Miss (6-8/16-12).

Southern

Date: March 2-5

Location: Asheville, NC

Teams in Tournament: 12

Estimated Dance Tickets: 1 or 2

TV: 1^st Round on SoCon TV; Quarterfinals on ESPN3; Semifinals on SoCon TV & ESPN3; Championship on ESPN2

The Bracket for this tournament is set. Opening round play begins Friday.

Southern Conference Tournament — Asheville, NC

All Times EST

Opening Round—March 2

Game 1: 4S-College of Charleston (10-8/19-11) vs. 5N-Appalachian State (7-11/12-17) 11:30 AM

Game 2: 3N-Western Carolina (8-10/14-17) vs. 6S-Citadel (3-15/6-23) 2:00 PM

Game 3: 4N-Samford (8-10/11-18) vs. 5S-Furman (8-10/14-15) 6:00 PM

Game 4: 3S-Georgia Southern (12-6/14-14) vs. 6N-Chattanooga (5-13/11-20) 8:30 PM

Quarterfinals—March 3

Game 5: 1N-UNC-Greensboro (10-8/12-18) vs. Game 1 Winner 12 Noon

Game 6: 2S-Wofford (12-6/19-12) vs. Game 2 Winner 2:30 PM

Game 7: 1S-Davidson (16-2/22-7) vs. Game 3 Winner 6:00 PM

Game 8: 2N-Elon (9-9/14-15) vs. Game 4 Winner 8:30 PM

Semifinals—March 4

Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner 6:00 PM

Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner 8:30 PM

Championship—March 5 9:00 PM

Davidson (16-2/22-7) has an outside shot at an at-large bid if the Wildcats lose in the SoCon Finals. At 24-8, their RPI would be in the low 70’s.

Southland

Date: March 7-10

Location: Katy, TX

Teams in Tournament: 8 (9^th through 12^th teams left out)

Estimated Dance Tickets: 1

TV: Semifinals on Southland TV; Championship on ESPN2

Texas-Arlington (14-0/22-6) is too low in the RPI ratings to get onto the bubble. If the Mavericks lose a game, their RPI would be in the 80’s at best, so they must win the automatic bid.

If another team upsets UTA, it will be tough to see that team having any chance in the first round of the Big Dance. UTA has the talent to win the first game and contend for a spot in the Sweet 16.

S W A C

Date: March 7-10

Location: Garland, TX

Teams in Tournament: 8 (Southern & Grambling ineligible due to APR scores)

Estimated Dance Tickets: 1

TV: Quarterfinals & Semifinals on SWAC TV; Championship on ESPN-U

The SWAC is the overall weakest conference in the NCAA, as seven of the 10 teams are rated 300 or worse in the RPI ratings. Even the Great West Conference and the Independents, which do not receive automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament, have higher overall RPI ratings. Probably the team with the best chance at winning an opening round game in Dayton, Southern, isn’t even eligible due to poor APR scores.

Mississippi Valley State (16-0/17-11) has run roughshod over the league with 16 consecutive wins. But, the Delta Devils went 1-11 outside the league.

Texas Southern (10-5/11-16) and Prairie View (8-7/12-16) are vying for the number two seed. The bottom four seeds in the tournament could all have 20 or more regular season losses.

Summit League

Date: March 3-6

Location: Sioux Falls, SD

Teams in Tournament: 8 (9^th & 10^th teams left out)

Estimated Dance Tickets: 1 or 2

TV: Championship on ESPN2; All others on Fox College Sports & Midco Network

The Bracket for this tournament is set. Quarterfinal round play begins Saturday.

Summit League Tournament—Sioux Falls, SD

All Times CST

Quarterfinals—March 3

Game 1: 1-Oral Roberts (17-1/26-5) vs. 8-I P F W (5-13/11-18) 6:00 PM

Game 2: 2-South Dakota State (15-3/24-7) vs. 7-I U P U I (7-11/14-17) 8:30 PM

Quarterfinals—March 4

Game 3: 4-Western Illinois (9-9/15-13) vs. 5-North Dakota State (9-9/17-12) 6:00 PM

Game 4: 3-Oakland (11-7/17-14) vs. 6-Southern Utah (8-10/13-16) 8:30 PM

Semifinals—March 5

Game 5: Game 1 Winner vs. Game 3 Winner 6:00 PM

Game 6: Game 2 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner 8:30 PM

Championship—March 6 8:00 PM

Oral Roberts should be safe if they fall to South Dakota State in the Championship Game. The Golden Eagles are Number 46 in the RPI ratings. South Dakota State was the lone team to beat ORU. The Jackrabbits won by 15 at home after losing by 22 at ORU. With the Summit League Tournament just 55 miles down the road in Sioux Falls, SDSU will enjoy considerable home fan advantage, almost as much as home court advantage.

Sunbelt

Date: March 3-6

Location: Hot Springs, AR

Teams in Tournament: 11 (UL-Monroe is ineligible)

Estimated Dance Tickets: 1 or 2

TV: Quarterfinals involving Middle Tennessee and UALR games on SBC Network; Semifinals on SBC Network; Championship on ESPN2

The Bracket for this Tournament is set. Opening round play begins Saturday.

Sunbelt Conference Tournament — Hot Springs, AR

All Times CST

Opening Round—March 3

Game 1: 6-South Alabama (8-8/16-11) vs. 11-Troy (5-11/10-17) 6:00 PM (Summit Arena)

Game 2: 7-Western Kentucky (7-9/11-18) vs. 10-Florida International (5-11/11-20) 8:30 PM (Summit Arena)

Game 3: 8-Florida Atlantic (7-9/11-18) vs. 9-Arkansas State (6-10/12-19) 6:15 PM (Convention Center)

Quarterfinals—March 4

Game 4: 1-Middle Tennessee (14-2/25-5) vs. Game 3 Winner 6:00 PM (Summit Arena)

Game 5: 2-Arkansas-Little Rock (12-4/15-15) vs. Game 2 Winner 8:30 PM (Summit Arena)

Game 6: 4-Louisiana-Lafayette (10-6/16-14) vs. 5-North Texas (9-7/16-13) 6:15 PM (Convention Center)

Game 7: 3-Denver (11-5/21-8) vs. Game 1 Winner 8:45 PM (Convention Center)

Semifinals—March 5

Game 4 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner 6:00 PM (Summit Arena)

Game 5 Winner vs. Game 7 Winner 8:30 PM (Summit Arena)

Championship—March 6 6:00 PM (Summit Arena)

Middle Tennessee has a chance to earn an at-large bid if the Blue Raiders lose in the Championship Game to Denver or UALR. Denver defeated Middle Tennessee in the regular season.

W A C

Date: March 8-10

Location: Las Vegas

Teams in Tournament: 8

Estimated Dance Tickets: 1 or 2

TV: Championship Game on ESPN2; All other games free online at: http://www.wacbasketballtournament.com/

Nevada (11-1/23-5) is number 59 in the RPI ratings, and the Wolfpack are on the bubble.

New Mexico State (9-3/22-8) is number 74 in the RPI, and the Aggies will need to win the automatic bid to get to the Big Dance.

If any other conference team wins the tournament, there is a chance UN-Reno will not receive an at-large bid due to a drop in RPI.

West Coast

Date: February 29 through March 3, March 5

Location: Las Vegas

Teams in Tournament: 9

Estimated Dance Tickets: 2 or 3

TV: 2^nd Round on BYU-TV; Quarterfinals on ESPN-U; Semifinals on ESPN2; Championship on ESPN

West Coast Conference Tournament — Las Vegas

All Times PST

Opening Round—February 29

Game 1: 8-Portland (3-13/6-23) vs. 9-Santa Clara (0-16/8-21) 6:00 PM

2^nd Round—March 1

Game 2: 5-San Francisco (8-8/18-12) vs. Game 1 Winner 6:00 PM

Game 3: 6-San Diego (7-9/12-17) vs. 7-Pepperdine (4-12/10-18) 8:20 PM

Quarterfinals—March 2

Game 4: 4-Loyola Marymont (11-5/19-11) vs. Game 2 Winner 6:00 PM

Game 5: 3-B Y U (12-4/24-7) vs. Game 3 Winner 8:20 PM

Semifinals—March 3

1-Saint Mary’s (14-2/25-5) vs. Game 4 Winner 6:00 PM

2-Gonzaga (13-3/23-5) vs. Game 5 Winner 8:20 PM

Championship—March 5 6:00 PM

This will be one spectacular tournament, especially if the top four seeds advance to the Semifinals. Loyola Marymount has the confidence to contend with St. Mary’s and even pull off another upset. BYU and Gonzaga could play 10 times, with at most one team winning six games.

We expect St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, and BYU to make the Big Dance, but if LMU should somehow beat BYU in the Championship Game, there is an outside chance that four league teams could be invited.

The Ivy League—No Conference Tournament

Estimated Dance Tickets: 1 or 2

Penn (9-2/17-11) won at Harvard (10-2/24-4) last night to split the series for the year. The Quakers have home games with Brown and Yale next weekend and close at Princeton on March 6. If Penn runs the table, and Harvard wins at Columbia and Cornell this weekend, there would be a playoff for the title.

Yale (9-3/19-7) is still mathematically alive for a possible three-way tie, but the Bulldogs would need to sweep Princeton and Penn on the road to have a chance, and then they would need Harvard to lose to either Columbia or Cornell. Even though Yale was swept by Harvard, in the Ivy League, all ties result in playoffs.

Harvard is still high enough in the RPI ratings to qualify as an at-large team if the Crimson wins their final two games and then lose in a playoff. No Ivy League school has ever earned an at-large bid.

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February 17, 2012

A PiRate Look At The Big Dance & The Bracket Buster

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: Big Dance, Bracket Buster, Bracketology, Bubble, NCAA, tournament — piratings @ 1:58 pm

It’s Bracket Buster weekend, which means that the first conference tournaments are just a week away. 13 games will be televised on ESPN, or should we rename the network ESP-LIN?

With the expanded 68-team field entering its second year, this weekend becomes more important. The positions of mid-major and low-major teams on the bubble will move with each game.

The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee has instructed the public in how they select the at-large teams. RPI ratings are important, but they are not the be all and end all. The committee stresses that they want members watching these games, trying to figure out which teams “look” like they could win tournament games.

With that in mind, let’s look at the Bracket Buster schedule, and then let’s look at every conference, trying to figure out which teams would be in the Big Dance if the season ended today.

Friday, February 17, 2012
Time	Network	Home Team	W-L	RPI	Visiting Team	W-L	RPI
7:00 PM	ESPN-2	Va.Commonwealth	22-6	81	Northern Iowa	17-11	53
9:00 PM	ESPN-U	Loyola Marymount	17-10	107	Valparaiso	19-9	95

Saturday, February 18, 2012
Time	Network	Home Team	W-L	RPI	Visiting Team	W-L	RPI
11:00 AM	ESPN-U	Cleveland St.	20-7	83	Drexel	22-5	86
12:00 PM	ESPN-2	Davidson	20-6	70	Wichita St.	23-4	17
1:00 PM	ESPN-U	South Dakota St.	21-7	73	Buffalo	16-7	80
2:00 PM	ESPN-2	Oral Roberts	24-5	45	Akron	19-7	61
3:00 PM	ESPN-U	New Mexico St.	19-8	77	Drake	15-12	130
4:00 PM	ESPN-2	Iona	21-6	54	Nevada	22-4	58
5:00 PM	ESPN-U	Missouri St.	16-12	89	Old Dominion	17-11	128
6:00 PM	ESPN	Murray St.	25-1	51	Saint Mary’s	23-4	26
7:00 PM	ESPN-3	OhioU	20-6	105	UNC-Asheville	19-8	118
8:00 PM	ESPN-3	Weber St.	21-4	88	UT-Arlington	20-5	114
10:00 PM	ESPN-2	Creighton	22-5	30	Long Beach St.	19-6	44

All Times Eastern Standard
RPI as of February 15, 2012 from realtimerpi.com

America East

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

Stony Brook (12-2/17-8) and Vermont (12-2/18-10) lead Boston U (10-4/14-14) by two games. Stony Brook had won 14 of 15 games until losing at Vermont by 19 last Sunday. The Sea Wolves have no spectacular non-conference wins.

Vermont has won nine in a row and 12 of their last 13.

Atlantic Ten

2 or 3 bids (most likely 2)

Temple (9-2/20-5) and St. Louis (9-3/21-5) are both on the bubble, with the Owls resting near the top of that bubble thanks to wins over Duke and Wichita State. Xavier (7-4/16-9) has played their way into needing to win the automatic bid. UMass (7-4/18-7) has the talent to win the conference tournament, as does St. Joe’s (7-5/17-10), LaSalle (6-5/17-9), and Dayton (6-5/16-9).

ACC

5-7 bids (probably 6)

North Carolina (9-2/22-4) and Duke (9-2/22-4) are definitely in. Florida State (9-2/18-7) needs one more win to be a cinch. Virginia (6-5/19-6 needs two more wins to be a lock. These four will be called on Selection Sunday.

Three other teams are still in the hunt for at-large bids, and they are in order of preference: North Carolina St. (7-4/18-8), Miami (6-5/15-9), and Maryland (5-6/15-10).

Atlantic Sun

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

Perennial champion Belmont (12-2/20-7) is locked in a tight race with Mercer (12-2/20-7) for the regular season title. But, the winner will only be guaranteed a bid in the NIT if they cannot win the conference tournament.

Mercer hosts the tournament this year, so the Bears have to be considered the favorite. Belmont has yet to play at Mercer. The Bruins close the regular season in Macon.

Big 12

5-7 bids (probably 6)

Losing Nebraska and Colorado did not affect this league’s basketball strength, and the same amount of teams should make the tournament this year than last.

What’s a Big Dance without Kansas (11-2/21-5)? The Jayhawks are a lock, as are Missouri (11-2/24-2) and Baylor (9-4/22-4). Any of these three could still be around in the Elite 8.

Two surprise teams come next. Iowa State (8-5/18-8) is a positive surprise, while Texas (7-6/17-9) have not quite made enough of a case for themselves. Fred Hoiberg has done a great job in Ames, and the Cyclones need maybe two more wins to be locks. The Longhorns must win at least three more times to be on the safe side of the bubble.

Kansas State (6-7/17-8) is slowly falling down in the ranks of the elite. The Wildcats must win three of their final five regular season games and at least once in the Big 12 Tournament to be considered a shoo-in. Their next two are at Baylor and at Missouri, and the boys from the Little Apple could be 6-9/17-10 on Wednesday morning.

Big East

6 to 9 bids (probably 7)

Recent trends in this league has made a muddy mess out of the group in the middle. Five teams (Syracuse 13-1/26-1, Marquette 10-3/21-5, Notre Dame 10-3/18-8, Georgetown 9-4/19-5, and Louisville 8-5/20-6) will be dancing for sure.

After that quintet, one to four more teams could make the dance, and five teams are competing for those one to four bids. South Florida (9-4/16-10) is actually ahead of the other four in the conference standings, but the Bulls are actually the lowest team in this mini-bubble. Looking down at USF in the bubble watch are: Cincinnati (8-5/18-8), Seton Hall (7-7/18-8), West Virginia (7-7/17-10), and Connecticut (6-7/17-9).

Pitt (4-10/15-12) could still make some noise at MSG in the conference tournament, but do not expect the Panthers to make a UConn-like run.

Big Sky

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

Weber State (13-1/21-4) has won 15 of 16 games, but the Wildcats are not on the bubble. Weber State should win the automatic bid, and if they do, keep an eye on Damian Lillard, one of the best players you may not know.

Montana (12-1/19-6) can still win the regular season title, as they host the Wildcats to conclude the regular season on February 28. The Grizzlies have won 14 or 15 games, losing only at Weber State.

The regular season champion hosts the semifinal and final rounds, and the top two teams get byes to the semifinals, which makes seeding very important in this league.

Big South

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

Four teams have separated themselves from the rest of the pack, and it is hard to believe any other team would have a chance to win the conference tournament.

UNC-Asheville (14-2/19-8) and Coastal Carolina (11-5/18-8) are the two top teams in the league, and Campbell (11-5/17-11) and Charleston Southern (10-6/16-10) are the best of the rest.

UNCA can shoot and score, but they are a little soft inside. CCU has more muscle inside and has shown a penchant for being able to play with major conference teams. The Chanticleers own wins over LSU and Clemson.

Big Ten

6 to 8 bids (probably 7)

This league’s games have been on the boring side this year, and we have a feeling that more than one tournament team will fall in upsets in the Big Dance. The league has become too controlled, and underdogs that can score cheap baskets could pull off multiple upsets in the tournament.

Michigan State (10-3/21-5) and Ohio State (10-3/22-4) can lose out and still get in the tournament. Michigan (9-4/19-7), Wisconsin (8-5/19-7), and Indiana (8-6/20-6) will be in unless they lose out. So count these five as sure things.

Purdue (7-6/17-9) is on the good side of the bubble. Minnesota (5-8/17-9), Illinois (5-8/16-10, and Northwestern (5-8/15-10) are on the outside looking in. If any of this trio can go 4-1 and then win their first conference tournament game, it could be enough to sneak in as one of the four majors that must go to Dayton.

Big West

1 or 2 bids

Long Beach State (12-0/19-6) has done enough to be on the bubble should they not win the conference tournament. The 49ers played a brutally tough non-conference schedule, and they get one more in this week’s bracket buster game against Creighton. LBSU has wins over Pitt, Xavier, and Auburn, and they have close losses to North Carolina, San Diego State, Kansas, and Louisville.

In conference play, the 49ers are outscoring their opponents by an average of 75.9 to 62.7. Cal State Fullerton (9-3/17-7) is the top contender in a possible upset chance.

Colonial Athletic

1 to 3 bids

Here is where the RPI rankings could prove to be either more or less important than most people think. This league’s RPI rankings are lackluster this year, but there are three teams strong enough to win an NCAA Tournament game, maybe even stronger than last year’s surprise Final Four participant.

Drexel (14-2/22-5) is squarely on the bubble. Coach Bruiser Flint could be on his way to bigger and better things after bringing the Dragons this far. They could be better than any of the Big Five in Philly this year. Drexel has won 20 of their last 21, including wins over VCU and George Mason, the teams fighting them in the standings. If the Dragons can win at Cleveland State this weekend, they may move close to sure thing status.

George Mason (14-2/22-6) is on par with the GMU team that played in the Final Four in the previous decade. Ryan Pearson has the moves inside to give the Patriots balance.

Virginia Commonwealth (13-3/22-6) may be better this year than last when they snuck into the Final Four after having to play in the first round in Dayton. However, the Rams may not even get into the tournament unless they close out with some key wins.

Conference USA

2 or 3 bids

Two teams, Southern Mississippi (9-2/22-4) and Memphis (9-2/19-7) have earned at-large bids if they do not win the conference tournament. A host of also-rans could be considered contenders if they get hot in the conference tournament, but we cannot really see someone other than the Golden Eagles or Tigers cutting down the nets.

The top contenders are Central Florida (7-4/18-7) and Tulsa (8-4/15-11).

Great West

0 bids

This league does not receive an automatic bid. Utah Valley (7-0/18-10) will earn an automatic bid to the College Insider Tournament if they win the conference title. They have a 2 ½ game lead.

Horizon

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

This league lost all of its luster once January gave way to February. At one point, two or even three teams were in competition for an at-large bid, but now, none of the trio has a chance unless they win the automatic bid.

Valparaiso (12-4/19-9) leads fading Cleveland State (10-5/20-7). Detroit (10-6/16-12) and Butler (10-6/16-12) will compete with those two in the conference tournament. Butler might still be considered the favorite when the conference tournament begins. 16-2 in the postseason in the last two years is enough to qualify as a tournament-savvy team.

Ivy League

1 or 2 bids

Harvard (7-1/21-3) could still earn an at-large bid if they somehow lost to Yale twice (at home in the regular season and then in a playoff) and won the rest of their games. This has about as much chance of happening as Ron Paul’s chances to win the Republican nomination.

Yale (6-2/16-6) lost at home to their arch-rival by 30, so the chances of the Bulldogs beating the Crimson twice are virtually nil.

M A A C

1 or 2 bids

We are giving Iona (13-3/21-6) the benefit of the doubt in the bubble watch, but we really do not think the Gaels are bubble-worthy yet. A bracket buster win over Nevada might put them on the lower end of the bubble, but it would still be a tough road to an at-large bid should they lose to another MAAC team in the conference tournament.

Loyola (MD) (12-4/19-7) is the chief competitor.

M A C

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

Akron (11-1/19-7), Kent State (9-3/19-6), and Buffalo (9-3/16-7) are the top contenders to win the MAC Tournament, with Ohio U (8-4/20-6) the best of the rest. One of these four should win the league’s only bid.

Kent State has won seven games in a row by an average margin of better than 13 points. The Golden Flashes own a win over West Virginia, so they are capable of competing in the Big Dance.

M E A C

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

This league has not fared well in recent years, but things could be a little different this year. Two teams, Savannah State (9-2/16-10) and Norfolk State (10-3/18-9), have enough talent to get past a first round opponent in Dayton.

Missouri Valley

2 or 3 bids (probably 2)

Wichita State (14-2/23-4) is already a lock and should be a higher seed than their opening game opponent. The Shockers could sneak into the top six in seeding.

Creighton (12-4/22-5) has fallen back a step or two in the last 10 days, but the Blue Jays are also already in the Big Dance. They have the Jeremy Lin of college basketball in coach’s son Doug McDermott. McDermott averages 23 points and 8 rebounds per game, and he shoots like Larry Bird (61+% FG, 83% FT, and 50% 3-pt).

A host of contenders could get hot and win Arch Madness in St. Louis. Missouri State (9-7/16-12), Illinois State (8-8/16-11), and Drake (8-8/15-12) are the three top contenders, but keep an eye on Northern Iowa (7-9/17-11).

Mountain West

3 or 4 bids (probably 3)

New Mexico (7-2/21-4), UNLV (6-3/22-5), and San Diego State (6-3/20-5) are in barring a total collapse.

Whether or not a fourth team can surprise in the MWC Tournament is the question. There are three other teams capable of winning the automatic bid. TCU (5-4/15-10), Wyoming (4-5/18-7), and Colorado State (4-5/15-9) all have the talent to make a run.

Northeast

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

We follow this league more than most other pundits. It is our opinion that two teams deserve to be highly considered for the Big Dance, but we know that only the conference tournament champion will get a bid.

Long Island (14-1/20-7) and Wagner (13-2/22-4) are both tournament worthy. LIU swept Wagner in two close games, and it will be hard to defeat the Blackbirds to beat the Seahawks a third time if they meet in the Championship Game.

Jamal Olasewere and Julian Boyd give LIU a potent inside attack. The dynamic duo average 34.6 points and 17 rebounds per game. Jason Brickman is the best point guard in the league.

Robert Morris (11-4/20-8) is the only team to beat the Blackbirds. They should earn a post-season bid to one of the lesser tournaments.

Ohio Valley

1 or 2 bids

The OVC has only once before sent more than one team to the Big Dance, and that was more than 20 years ago when two teams (Akron and Middle Tennessee) no longer in the league made the field.

Murray State (13-1/25-1) can virtually wrap up an at-large bid with a win tomorrow over Saint Mary’s. The Racers probably will not need it, but there are two teams capable of knocking them off in the conference tournament.

Tennessee State (11-4/18-10) penned the one loss on Murray, and they did it on the road. The Tigers benefit from having the conference tournament in Nashville, less than two miles from campus.

Tennessee Tech (9-6/17-11) is the other team to watch out for.

Pac-12

1 or 2 bids (probably 2)

This is not a typo. As little as one team could receive an invitation to dance from a conference that is supposed to be one of the Big Six leagues.

California (11-3/21-6) is the only sure thing. If the Bears win the Pac-12 Tournament, then the boys from Berkeley could be the only league team in the NCAA Tournament.

This league’s lack of star quality should make for a great conference tournament. Washington (11-3/18-8), Arizona (10-4/19-8), Colorado (9-4/17-8), Oregon (9-5/18-8), Stanford (8-6/18-8), and UCLA (8-6/15-11) all have a shot at winning the automatic bid. None of these teams are spectacular, but any one of them could get hot and win three or four games in three or four days.

Patriot

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

Bucknell (10-1/20-7) is the prohibitive favorite to return to the Big Dance. Lehigh (8-3/20-7) and American (8-3/17-9) are the top contenders.

S E C

3 to 6 bids (probably 4)

Kentucky (11-0/25-1) and Florida (8-3/20-6) are already in the tournament. Vanderbilt (7-4/18-8) probably needs just two more wins to get in.

After those three, it is a dogfight for fourth through seventh. Mississippi State (6-5/19-7) is the leading contender for a possible fourth bid, while Tennessee (6-5/14-12), Alabama (5-6/16-9), and Arkansas (5-6/17-9) contending for possible fifth and sixth bids. If one of these three can win a combination of five more regular season and conference tournament games, they should sneak into the Dance.

Southern

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

Davidson (14-2/20-6) is close to being added to the bubble. Maybe a Wildcat win over Wichita State would put them on the bubble. However, we feel like the Wildcats will get there via an automatic bid. The rest of the league is mediocre or worse.

Southland

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

Texas-Arlington (12-0/20-5) is a little weaker than Davidson, and the Mavericks could get a little more respect with a win at Weber State in the Bracket Buster game.

The rest of the league is marginally better than the rest of the Southern Conference, so we believe UTA has a rather strong shot of winning the automatic bid.

S W A C

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

This league has struggled in recent years, and this year should be no different. There really aren’t any really good teams in the SWAC this year. Mississippi Valley is 13-0 in league play and 1-11 outside the league. Southern (9-4/13-13) has the best out of conference mark at 4-9, and two of those wins came against non-Division 1 teams.

Summit

1 or 2 bids

Oral Roberts (16-1/24-5) is on the bubble, and if the Golden Eagles handle Akron with ease, like we think they will, they could move into the middle of the bubble.

South Dakota State (13-3/21-7) is the principle rival to ORU in the conference tournament. Should SDSU beat ORU in the final round, then ORU would be given strong consideration in the at-large picks.

Sunbelt

1 or 2 bids

Middle Tennessee (12-1/23-4) is in the same boat as Oral Roberts, but the Blue Raiders do not play in the Bracket Buster. With a high RPI, Middle Tennessee should rank just below the second choice in the West Coast on the mid-major bubble.

Denver (9-5/19-8) is the top contender, but we believe the Blue Raiders will not need an at-large bid to get in the Dance.

West Coast

2 or 3 bids (probably 2)

Gonzaga (11-2/21-4) is a lock for the Big Dance based on their out-of-conference slate. The Bulldogs trail Saint Mary’s (12-2/23-4) by a half game in the standings. The Gaels can wrap up an at-large bid with a win at Murray State tomorrow.

BYU (10-3/22-6) discovered that the WCC is as tough as the MWC. The Cougars will probably have to make it to the finals of the WCC Tournament to earn an at-large bid.

Loyola Marymount (10-4/17-10) is out of at-large consideration, but the Lions are talented enough to pull off a couple of upsets and play spoiler at the conference tournament.

W A C

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

Nevada (10-1/22-4) is in the same boat as Davidson and UT-Arlington. The Wolf Pack need a big win at Iona to be considered to be at the bottom of the bubble. They have won 19 of 20 games, and they are flying under the radar due to their intrastate rival down south. Had the Wolf Pack defeated UNLV by four instead of losing by four, they would be on the bubble and probably ranked in the top 25.

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February 3, 2012

PiRate Ratings NCAA Basketball Report for February 3, 2012

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: basketball, BYU, Creighton, Gonzaga, NCAA, New Mexico, San Diego State, St. Mary's, UNLV, Wichita State — piratings @ 7:44 pm

This week’s Low and Mid-Major Conference Teams in the RPI Top 50

8: U N L V

16: Creighton

18: Colorado State

21: Gonzaga

22: San Diego State

28: St. Mary’s

30:WichitaState

33:Long BeachState

36:MurrayState

37: Brigham Young

38:New Mexico

47: Harvard

48: MiddleTennessee

This week, we look at the upper echelon of the non-power conferences, the so-called Mid-Majors. We list seven conferences in this group that is just below the top eight leagues.

Colonial Athletic

1 bid only

Virginia Commonwealth made it to the Final Four last year, and George Mason has been there in recent times, but this league is down in 2012. Only the conference tournament champion will play in the NCAA Tournament.

Virginia Commonwealth (10-2/19-5 RPI 94), Drexel (10-2/18-5 RPI 82), George Mason (10-2/18-6 RPI 113), and Old Dominion (10-2/15-9 RPI 130) are tied for first, well ahead of the rest of the pack.

Drexel may be the league’s best representative this year. The Dragons can rebound with the power conference teams. Samme Givens, Daryl McCoy, and Dartaye Ruffin team up for about 18 boards per game, and seven players contribute in a balanced scoring load. Drexel holds opponents under 40% from the field.

Virginia Commonwealth still plays a helter-skelter style of ball, but the Rams cannot shoot the ball well. VCU’s field goal accuracy is barely 40%. Leading scorer Bradford Burgess shoots just 33.6% from the field. Coach Shaka Smart has to find a way to get Juvonte Reddic the ball more. Reddic, who averages 10.9 points per game, connects on better than 50% of his shots.

Horizon

1 bid with very slim chance at 2

Cleveland State (8-2/18-4 RPI 58) owns a double-digit win at Vanderbilt. However, the Vikings have fallen in the RPI rankings to a point where they would need to win out and lose in the semifinals or finals of the Horizon League in order to earn an at-large bid.

Valparaiso (9-3/16-8 RPI 110) is close to being as good as they were during their winning years in the early 1990’s. However, they will not make it to the Big Dance unless they earn an automatic bid.

UW-Milwaukee (7-5/14-10 RPI 137), Youngstown State (7-5/12-10 RPI 147), and Butler (7-5/13-11 RPI 125) are the best of the rest. Butler appears to be in danger of missing out on post-season play this year.

Mid-American

1 bid only (remote chance for 2)

The MAC is not what it once was. No team in the Western Division can even sniff a double digit RPI. In the stronger Eastern Division, there are three teams that could compete in an opening round NCAA Tournament game.

Akron (7-1/15-7 RPI 56) is on the precipice of being an at-large bubble team. The Zips are a balanced scoring teams with five players scoring between eight and 11 points per game. Akronis not all that strong on the boards, but the Zips shoot better than 48% from the field.

Ohio U (6-2/18-4 RPI 78) has a very tough closing schedule, and the Bobcats are likely to lose as many as they win from here on out. Poor shooting will doom them in on the road.

Buffalo (6-2/13-6 RPI 92) holds opponents well under 40% from the field, and the Bulls can compete with anybody on the boards. Javon McCrea and Mitchell Watt team for better than 31 points per game. Buffalomight be the most competitive of the three leaders in an opening round NCAA Tournament game.

Missouri Valley

2 for sure and possible 3 bids

The Valley is fertile in 2012. Creighton (11-1/21-2 RPI 16) and WichitaState(10-2/19-4 RPI 30) are sure things to earn at-large bids to the Big Dance if they do not win the MVC Tournament. Northern Iowa (5-7/15-9) has the talent to pull off a conference tournament upset.

Creighton has the 21^st century version of Larry Bird leading the team. Doug McDermott averages almost 24 points per game and more than eight rebounds per game. He connects on better than 62% of his shots, about 52% from behind the three-point line, and 82% at the foul line.

The Blue Jays own wins over San Diego State and Northwestern, and they won at WichitaState.

Wichita State defeated UNLV, and the Shockers are a little stronger defensively than Creighton, but a little weaker offensively.

Mountain West

3 bids with a chance for 4

Even with the defection of BYU, this league is quite strong, perhaps the strongest of this group.

Five teams are still in contention for at-large bid status. UNLV (5-1/21-3 RPI 8) is a sure thing. The Runnin’ Rebels can score (80+ points per game), defend (9 steals per game and +15 scoring margin), and rebound (+5.4). Mike Moser averages a double-double (14.7/11.6).

San Diego State (5-1/19-3 RPI 22) is only marginally weaker this year than last. The Aztecs are still talented enough to advance deep into the tournament. Coach Steve Fisher has two legitimate stars in Chase Tarpley and Jamaal Franklin. SDSU owns wins over Arizona, California, UNLV, and Long BeachState.

New Mexico (4-2/18-4 RPI 38) may be the best of the top three in this league. The Lobos can slaughter a team in a matter of minutes with deadly accurate shooting and strong defense. Coach Steve Alford has this team playing like an oldIndianateam. UNM defeated St. Louis, Wyoming, and ColoradoState, but there is a question about their strength of schedule.

Colorado State (3-3/14-7 RPI 18) and Wyoming(3-3/17-5 RPI 91) both have enough talent to win the MWC Tournament.

West Coast Conference

3 bids (possibly 4)

If the Mountain West is not the strongest Mid-Major, then this league is. Three teams stand to make the NCAA Tournament, and if someone else can pull off the conference tournament upset, there is a chance that four could receive invitations.

St.Mary’s (11-0/22-2 RPI 28) continues to remain among the nation’s elite thanks to Coach Randy Bennett’s ability to recruit all over the planet. This Gael team has the talent to make it to the Final Four. They can score from the perimeter and in the paint. The Gaels are accurate shooters, tenacious defenders, and tough rebounders. They have defeated Gonzaga and already swept BYU.

Gonzaga (7-2/17-4 RPI 21) has defeated Notre Dame, Oral Roberts, Arizona, and Xavier this year. The Zags lost to BYU last night.

BYU (7-3/19-6 RPI 37) moved to within half a game of Gonzaga. The Cougars have four double figure scorers, led by Noah Hartsock at 17.8 points per game.

Western Athletic

1 or 2 bids

Nevada (8-0/19-3 RPI 55) is on the at-large bubble. If the Wolf Pack wins the WAC regular season title with no more than one loss, they could sneak into the Big Dance as one of the final at-large teams if they lost in the conference tournament finals. Nevada owns a win over Washington, and they lost at UNLV by just four points.

New MexicoState (5-2/16-7 RPI 89) is strong enough to win the WAC Tournament and earn an automatic bid. The Aggies will not qualify as an at-large under any circumstance this year, even though they beat New Mexico.

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January 27, 2012

PiRate Ratings NCAA Basketball Report for January 28, 2012

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: basketball, Davidson, Harvard, Iona, Long Beach, Middle Tennessee, Murray State, NCAA, Oral Roberts — piratings @ 9:18 pm

Welcome back to College Basketball PiRate style. We have a unique way of looking at the NCAA Tournament, and as March approaches, we will review what we call Bracketnomics. Until then, we will concentrate on focusing in on the teams that are in contention for an NCAA berth.

In this week’s preview, we will focus on the low-major conferences. In most years, these leagues would have no shot at sending multiple teams to the Big Dance. However, that is not an impossible task this year.

Before we get to each of the 16 low-major conferences, let’s take a look at which low and mid-major teams appear in the top 50 in the RPI rankings (as of Friday, January 27, 2012).

There are 14 teams on the list. Creighton, Southern Mississippi, and Gonzaga all appear in the second ten, and these teams would appear to be safe at-large teams if they do not win automatic bids.

San Diego State, Wichita State, Murray State, and St. Mary’s all have RPIs in the 20’s. If these four teams continue to play at the same pace, they should have no trouble getting at-large bids as well.

Long Beach State, Oral Roberts, Davidson, Middle Tennessee, Harvard, Northern Iowa, and Iona have RPIs in the 40’s. They need to improve on their resumes in order to be under consideration for at-large bids.

Here is our look at the bottom 16 conferences.

America East (definite 1-bid conference)

Stony Brook 8-1 13-7

Boston U. 7-2 11-12

Vermont 6-2 12-10

Stony Brook defeated Boston last night to take a one game lead over the Terriers. BU had defeated Stony Brook two weeks earlier in the first contest.

Stony Brook is led by blue-collar worker Tommy Brenton. He does all the dirty work—gets rebounds, makes great passes, and plays excellent defense.

Boston U has a big scorer in Darryl Partin, who averages 20 points per game. D. J. Irving sets him up with crisp passes. Irving scores 12 points per game and dishes out 5.5 assists per contest.

Atlantic Sun (definite 1-bid conference)

Belmont 7-2 14-7

Mercer 7-2 15-7

USC Upstate 7-3 13-9

Belmont defeated Mercer earlier this year, so the Bruins technically are in first place. This Belmont team is not as good as last year’s 30-win squad, but they cannot be overlooked. Belmont lost by one at Duke.

Seven teams are within two games of first in this league, so the conference tournament should be quite interesting.

Big Sky (definite 1-bid conference)

Weber State 8-0 16-3

Montana 7-1 14-6

Montana St. 6-2 11-8

Weber State wins games at the free throw line. The Wildcats lead the nation in free throw percentage at better than 80%, and they have a chance to break the all-time single season mark. Two Wildcats, Damian Lillard and Scott Bamforth, average better than 90% from the line. Lillard leads the Big Sky in scoring at 25 points per game.

The Wildcats have won 10 games in a row, outscoring opponents by an average of 80.1 to 62.5.

Big South (definite 1-bid conference)

UNC-Asheville 10-1 15-7

Coastal Carolina 8-2 15-5

Campbell 8-3 14-9

Charleston Southern 7-3 13-7

V M I 6-5 11-10

UNCA is a scoring machine. The Bulldogs average 83 points per game and shoot close to 50% per game. They have a great two-man tandem in Matt Dickey and J. P. Primm. Both average 16 points per game and make it tough for opposing backcourts to matchup.

Coastal Carolina has a better inside game and could be the better NCAA Tournament team if they can get there. CCU owns wins over LSU and Clemson.

Big West (possible 2-bid conference)

Long Beach St. 8-0 15-6

The 49ers have a 2 ½-game lead over Cal State Fullerton and UCSB. LBSU defeated Pitt and Xavier and lost close games to San Diego State, Louisville, North Carolina, and Kansas. The 49ers have three star players capable of starting in big conferences. T. J. Robinson averages a double-double. Casper Ware and Larry Anderson make the league’s best guard tandem. Should LBSU win the regular season title with no or just one conference loss, the 49ers could still get into the Big Dance if they lost in the finals of the Big West Tournament.

Ivy League (possible 2-bid conference)

Harvard 3-0 17-2

Penn 2-0 10-9

Yale 2-1 12-5

Princeton 1-1 10-8

Harvard trounced Yale last night in New Haven by 30 points. The Crimson have an RPI rating in the 40’s, and they might have a shot at an at-large bid if they finished tied for first in the Ivy at 13-1 and lost in a conference playoff.

Penn and Princeton are always threats to run off a string of conference victories, but we believe that this is Tommy Amaker’s year in Boston. Harvard has a win over Florida State.

M A A C (possible 2-bid conference)

Iona 8-2 16-5

Loyola (MD) 8-2 15-5

Manhattan 8-2 15-7

All three co-leaders won last night. Iona has the best resume to date, and with an RPI in the high 40’s, the Gaels are on the cusp of at-large status. They lead the nation in assists per game with 20, and they shoot almost 50% from the field. They own a 26-point win over Maryland, and they lost by one to Purdue.

M E A C (definite 1-bid conference)

Norfolk State 7-0 15-6

Bethune-Cookman 6-1 9-12

Savannah St. 5-2 10-10

Norfolk State may be the best MEAC team in the last five years. They lost by just two points to Marquette earlier this year, and at 15-6, they have a good shot at winning 20 regular season games. The Spartans must play at Bethune-Cookman in the only meeting of the top two teams.

Kyle O’Quinn averages 16 points and 10 rebounds per game, and he shoots 59% from the field. O’Quinn stands a great chance of winning league MVP honors.

N E C (definite 1-bid conference)

Long Island 8-1 14-7

Wagner 7-2 16-4

Robert Morris 7-2 16-6

St. Francis NY 7-2 10-10

Long Island is not as good this year as last, but the Blackbirds are still the class of the league. LIU swept Wagner already, so the Blackbirds would have to lose twice for Wagner to have any chance to win the regular season title.

LIU still has three top notch stars. Julian Boyd and Jamal Olasewere team for 33 points and 17 boards per game, while Jason Brickman averages six assists per game.

Wagner defeated Pittsburgh, Penn, and Princeton this year, so the Seahawks might be a better matchup for a major conference opponent in the NCAA Tournament.

Ohio Valley (possible 2-bid league)

Murray State 8-0 20-0

The Racers have moved up to number nine in the nation, the first OVC team to crack the Top 10 since Western Kentucky was a member in the early 1970’s. The last undefeated team in the nation has a small chance of running the table in the regular season.

The Racers are winning games with excellent outside shooting, where they average 42% from behind the arc. Isaiah Canaan is the best of those outside shooters, hitting 47% three pointers and 18.7 points per game.

Patriot League (definite 1-bid league)

Bucknell 6-0 16-6

Lehigh 4-2 16-6

Bucknell may not be strong enough to pull off an epic upset in the first round of the Big Dance, but the Bison will be a tough out in the first round. They lost by 12 to both Minnesota and Vanderbilt and lost by 19 to Syracuse. The Bison have won eight games in a row.

Southern (possible 2-bid league)

North

Elon 5-3 10-9

UNC-Greensboro 5-4 7-14

South

Davidson 9-0 15-4

Davidson could possibly earn an at-large bid if the Wildcats failed to earn an automatic bid. The Wildcats won at Kansas.

Southland (definite 1-bid league)

East

Northwestern State 4-2 11-9

McNeese State 4-2 8-10

West

UT-Arlington 6-0 14-5

UT-San Antonio 5-1 13-7

UT-Arlington has won 10 games in a row after beginning the season at 4-5. They lost to Baylor by 10 points. UTA has excellent depth for a low-major team.

S W A C (definite 1-bid league)

Mississippi Valley State 7-0 8-11

Southern 6-2 10-11

Texas Southern 5-2 6-13

No team in this league has a winning record, so it is a strong chance the winner of the SWAC Tournament will be making a quick trip to Dayton for the play-in round.

Mississippi Valley has won seven games in a row after beginning the season 1-11. Among the teams that beat them are Notre Dame, North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Ole Miss.

Summit League (possible 2-bid league)

Oral Roberts 11-0 19-4

South Dakota State 8-2 16-6

Oral Roberts has reeled off 12 straight victories and moved up to the mid 40’s in the RPI rating. ORU owns a 22-point win over Xavier. Two of their four losses came at the hands of Gonzaga by six and West Virginia by seven.

Sunbelt (possible 2-bid league)

East

Middle Tennessee 9-0 20-2

West

Denver 6-2 16-5

This could be Middle Tennessee’s best ever team. The Blue Raiders have made waves in the NCAA Tournament in the past, knocking off Kentucky in 1982.

This Middle Tennessee team won by 20 points at UCLA, and if they can knock off Vanderbilt today, the Blue Raiders could move into the Top 25. They have excellent depth and can go 10 or 11 deep. Laron Dendy is the leader of the team.

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December 27, 2011

2011-12 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Quarterfinal Round

Filed under: 2011 Simulated NCAA Playoffs — Tags: Alabama, BCS, Bowls, college, Computer Simulation, football, LSU, NCAA, Oklahoma St., Playoffs — piratings @ 8:54 am

The Road To Simper Bowl V

The quarterfinal round of the PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs was simulated Friday, December 23, and the results and statistics are listed below.

For those of you new to this experiment, here is how the PiRates conduct this simulated National Championship playoff:

The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC receive automatic bids.

Any other conference champion that finishes in the top 12 of the BCS rankings also receives an automatic bid.

After these two rules have been applied, at-large invitations are extended to the number of teams needed to complete a 12-team tournament, based on BCS ranking.

Our 12-team tournament gives the top four BCS-ranked teams a bye, while teams seeded 5-12 play in the opening round.

The Dandy Dozen For This Season Are:

Automatic Bids

ACC Champion: Clemson 10-3 BCS #15

Big East Champion: West Virginia 9-3 BCS #23

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin 11-2 BCS # 10

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma State 11-1 BCS #3

Pac-12 Champion: Oregon 11-2 BCS #5

SEC Champion: L S U 13-0 BCS #1

Other Qualifying Conference Champions

No other conference champions finished in the BCS top 12.

At-large Bids (6)

BCS #2: Alabama 11-1

BCS #4: Stanford 11-1

BCS #6: Arkansas 10-2

BCS #7: Boise State 11-1

BCS #8: Kansas State 10-2

BCS #9: South Carolina 10-2

The Opening Round Results

Kansas State 30 South Carolina 20

Oregon 41 West Virginia 17

Wisconsin 38 Boise State 26

Clemson 50 Arkansas 44 3ot

Today’s Elite 8 Matchups

#8 Kansas State 11-2 at #1 L S U 13-0

#5 Oregon 12-2 at #4 Stanford 11-1

#10 Wisconsin 12-2 at #2 Alabama 11-1

#11 Clemson 11-3 at #3 Oklahoma State 11-1

Results

L S U 44 Kansas State 16

LSU	Team	KSU
21	FD	12
44-251	Rush	29-83
153	Passing	235
11-19-0	Passes	18-42-2
63	Plays	71
404	Tot Yds	318
1-42	KR	6-118
5-42	PR	2-1
2-34	Int Ret	0-0
0-0	Fum-Lst	1-0
6-38	Pen	7-50
3-42.3	Punt	7-41.6
30:34	Time	29:26
3-19	Sacks	0-0

Team	1	2	3	4	Final
LSU	3	24	14	3	44
KSU	0	0	0	16	16
Summary
LSU broke open a tight game in the second quarter starting with
a 31 yard interception return for touchdown by Tyrann Mathieu.

Following a three-and-out by Kansas State, the Tigers ensuing drive was a nine-play, 68-yard touchdown march culminated by QB Jordan Jefferson’s six yard scamper around left end.

Kansas State did not get on the scoreboard until they trailed 41-0
with 9:32 left to play in the game.

Oregon 38 Stanford 27

Stan	Team	Ore
23	FD	28
26-99	Rush	42-213
311	Passing	223
26-45-2	Passes	18-26-1
71	Plays	68
410	Tot Yds	436
4-87	KR	4-102
2-11	PR	0-0
1-11	Int Ret	2-31
1-0	Fum-Lst	2-0
7-52	Pen	6-43
4-39.8	Punt	2-41.0
27:51	Time	32:09
0-0	Sacks	2-13

Team	1	2	3	4	Final
Stan	10	10	0	7	27
Ore	7	14	10	7	38
Summary
Oregon broke open a tight game in the 3rd qtr with a 12-play,
80-yard drive that consumed over seven minutes off the clock.
Darron Thomas completed a 12-yard pass to Lavasier Tuinei for
the touchdown.

Following a LaMichael James 46-yard run to the Cardinal 11 yard
line, Alejandro Maldonado kicked a 26-yard field goal to put the
Ducks up by 11 points. Both teams scored a TD in the final quarter.

Andrew Luck completed a 41-yard pass for a score to Coby
Fleener, while James sprinted 16 yards for the game-clincher.
James led all players with 176 yards rushing.

Wisconsin 24 Alabama 19

Ala	Team	Wis
14	FD	19
38-134	Rush	52-213
187	Passing	171
19-32-1	Passes	15-22-0
70	Plays	74
321	Tot Yds	384
3-62	KR	2-41
5-19	PR	2-17
0-0	Int Ret	1-0
3-2	Fum-Lst	1-0
9-62	Pen	5-35
7-39.4	Punt	6-41.5
26:48	Time	33:12
0-0	Sacks	2-13

Team	1	2	3	4	Final
Ala	0	6	6	7	19
Wis	7	3	7	7	24
Summary
The Badgers pulled off the first major upset of the tournament, and they did so by playing old-style football better than the favored Crimson Tide.

On the first possession of the game, UW drove 77 yards on 14 plays, using almost eight minutes of the clock. The Badgers ran the ball 12 times for 58 yards and passed twice for 19 to gain a lead they kept for the duration of the game.

Montee Ball rushed for 152 yards on 31 carries, many times gaining a first down in crucial moments. In the fourth quarter, with UW leading 17-12, the Badgers were backed up at their own 10 yard line facing a 3rd and 6. Ball broke two tackles to pick up
the first down, and UW drove to midfield before punting to the ‘Bama 7. The defense forced the Tide to punt from the 3, and it gave UW excellent field possession at the Tide 38. Russell Wilson completed a TD pass to Nick Toon to sew up the victory.

Oklahoma State 44 Clemson 20

OSU	Team	Clem
31	FD	16
31-156	Rush	31-119
433	Passing	104
29-43-0	Passes	11-26-1
74	Plays	57
589	Tot Yds	223
2-39	KR	7-229
5-44	PR	0-0
1-(-2)	Int Ret	0-0
1-0	Fum-Lst	2-1
4-25	Pen	7-55
1-46.0	Punt	6-40.3
36:19	Time	23:41
3-20	Sacks	0-0

Team	1	2	3	4	Final
OSU	23	14	7	0	44
Clem	0	14	0	6	20
Summary
This game was never in doubt, starting with the first play from
scrimmage. Cowboy QB Brandon Weeden tossed a quick screen
pass to Joseph Randle, who ran 74 yards for a touchdown.
Moment later, a Clemson punt attempt was blocked through the
end zone for a safety, and after the ensuing free kick, Oklahoma
State drove 62 yards for their second touchdown, culminated by
Weeden’s 23 yard pass to Justin Blackmon to give OSU a 16-0 lead just five minutes into the game.

Clemson did not score until they trailed 30-0, when Sammy Watkins returned a kick 97 yards for a touchdown.

Randle led all rushers with 128 yards on 18 carries. The
Cowboys held Andre Ellington to 67 rushing yards.

The Final Four Is Set

Oregon ventures to Baton Rouge to face L S U for the second time this season, while Wisconsin travels to Stillwater to take on Oklahoma State in the other semifinal game. The winners of these games will advance to the Simper Bowl at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

Check back New Year’s Eve for the results of those two simulations.

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The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 9, 2012

NCAA College Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 9 Update

March 8, 2012

NCAA College Basketball Tournaments–March 8 Update

March 7, 2012

NCAA College Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 7 Update

March 5, 2012

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 5 Update

March 2, 2012

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–1st Update

February 26, 2012

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments Guide

February 17, 2012

A PiRate Look At The Big Dance & The Bracket Buster

February 3, 2012

PiRate Ratings NCAA Basketball Report for February 3, 2012

January 27, 2012

PiRate Ratings NCAA Basketball Report for January 28, 2012

December 27, 2011

2011-12 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Quarterfinal Round

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