PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	133.5	131.2	135.4	133.4
2	Clemson	131.9	128.6	132.8	131.1
3	Georgia	131.1	126.5	132.6	130.0
4	Washington	126.9	124.4	129.3	126.8
5	Ohio St.	126.2	123.5	126.8	125.5
6	Michigan St.	124.7	122.4	124.8	124.0
7	Notre Dame	125.7	121.9	124.1	123.9
8	Auburn	123.2	121.8	125.8	123.6
9	Oklahoma	122.5	121.1	123.1	122.2
10	Mississippi St.	122.8	119.5	123.0	121.8
11	Michigan	121.6	120.2	122.3	121.3
12	Wisconsin	121.7	118.6	121.7	120.7
13	Stanford	120.1	117.5	120.7	119.4
14	Boston College	118.1	115.1	118.4	117.2
15	Miami	117.1	115.1	116.7	116.3
16	Virginia Tech	116.1	115.6	116.0	115.9
17	Penn St.	116.7	113.5	117.0	115.7
18	Oregon	114.5	114.6	115.2	114.8
19	Missouri	114.6	112.9	116.2	114.5
20	Northwestern	114.8	112.8	115.2	114.3
21	Boise St.	113.3	112.8	114.3	113.5
22	N. Carolina St.	113.6	112.8	113.4	113.3
23	L S U	112.8	112.9	113.5	113.1
24	Central Florida	113.0	112.8	113.1	113.0
25	Florida	113.4	111.1	113.8	112.7
26	Iowa	113.7	111.2	112.9	112.6
27	T C U	112.9	112.2	111.7	112.2
28	Oklahoma St.	113.2	110.8	112.7	112.2
29	Duke	113.3	110.7	112.4	112.2
30	Georgia Tech	112.5	111.2	112.1	112.0
31	S. Carolina	112.3	111.4	111.6	111.8
32	U S C	112.3	110.7	111.6	111.5
33	Utah	111.5	109.5	112.4	111.2
34	West Virginia	111.6	110.8	111.0	111.1
35	Texas A&M	111.2	110.1	111.2	110.8
36	Iowa State	110.5	108.6	110.0	109.7
37	Florida St.	109.7	109.0	109.3	109.3
38	Texas	109.8	108.3	108.9	109.0
39	California	110.0	107.2	109.6	108.9
40	Ole Miss	107.8	107.5	108.6	107.9
41	Washington St.	108.6	107.7	107.5	107.9
42	Fresno St.	108.5	106.9	108.2	107.9
43	Arkansas	109.4	106.5	107.7	107.9
44	Wake Forest	108.7	106.5	106.2	107.1
45	Purdue	107.9	106.1	106.8	106.9
46	Memphis	105.2	107.3	106.7	106.4
47	Kansas St.	106.8	105.4	106.2	106.1
48	Arizona St.	106.7	105.2	105.6	105.8
49	Minnesota	106.0	105.2	105.5	105.6
50	Kentucky	106.0	104.9	105.4	105.4
51	Arizona	106.1	104.1	106.0	105.4
52	Syracuse	106.3	104.7	105.1	105.4
53	Pittsburgh	105.5	105.2	104.7	105.2
54	N. Carolina	105.3	104.3	104.7	104.8
55	Maryland	104.6	102.8	103.4	103.6
56	Louisville	103.6	103.4	103.0	103.3
57	Texas Tech	103.2	101.3	101.4	102.0
58	Baylor	102.7	100.4	102.1	101.7
59	Colorado	100.6	102.3	102.0	101.6
60	Virginia	101.9	102.4	100.3	101.5
61	Utah St.	100.3	101.5	101.9	101.2
62	Houston	99.1	100.6	99.8	99.8
63	Florida Atlantic	99.3	99.9	100.3	99.8
64	Vanderbilt	99.1	100.1	99.2	99.5
65	San Diego St.	98.9	99.5	100.1	99.5
66	BYU	99.0	99.8	99.6	99.4
67	Nebraska	100.3	98.5	97.6	98.8
68	U C L A	98.9	98.7	96.3	97.9
69	Wyoming	98.0	98.1	97.8	97.9
70	Toledo	97.0	99.1	97.1	97.7
71	South Florida	95.8	99.1	96.7	97.2
72	Rutgers	98.1	97.1	96.2	97.1
73	Indiana	97.6	96.5	97.1	97.1
74	N. Texas	95.8	98.7	96.6	97.0
75	Tennessee	96.9	97.2	96.2	96.8
76	Marshall	94.7	97.6	95.9	96.1
77	Northern Illinois	95.8	96.7	95.7	96.1
78	Army	95.6	96.1	95.5	95.8
79	Buffalo	94.5	96.9	95.6	95.7
80	Tulane	95.5	95.6	95.1	95.4
81	Ohio U	94.4	95.8	95.7	95.3
82	Navy	94.5	97.3	93.8	95.2
83	Louisiana Tech	93.3	95.8	94.5	94.5
84	Nevada	93.7	93.8	93.9	93.8
85	Temple	93.3	93.3	93.7	93.4
86	U A B	91.8	94.3	92.2	92.8
87	Air Force	92.7	92.7	91.9	92.4
88	Western Michigan	91.4	93.3	92.4	92.4
89	Illinois	92.9	92.5	91.7	92.4
90	Miami (O)	91.1	93.4	92.5	92.3
91	Appalachian St.	91.5	92.8	92.8	92.3
92	Kansas	93.5	91.9	91.2	92.2
93	Massachusetts	90.5	92.5	92.3	91.8
94	Tulsa	91.9	90.4	92.4	91.6
95	SMU	92.0	91.1	90.7	91.3
96	Akron	90.3	91.9	90.5	90.9
97	Eastern Michigan	89.6	91.0	90.3	90.3
98	Troy	89.2	90.7	90.8	90.2
99	Middle Tennessee	89.1	90.8	90.0	90.0
100	U N L V	89.3	90.8	89.8	90.0
101	Cincinnati	89.7	91.0	89.2	89.9
102	Arkansas St.	88.0	89.8	89.7	89.2
103	UL-Monroe	87.1	86.5	87.9	87.2
104	Central Michigan	85.6	88.9	86.1	86.9
105	New Mexico	85.9	87.8	85.5	86.4
106	Oregon St.	87.4	84.8	85.7	86.0
107	Bowling Green	85.0	85.3	85.6	85.3
108	Florida Int’l.	82.2	86.6	82.8	83.9
109	W. Kentucky	82.3	85.7	83.4	83.8
110	Southern Miss.	82.3	85.7	82.8	83.6
111	Old Dominion	82.0	86.3	82.0	83.5
112	South Alabama	81.9	84.4	83.3	83.2
113	Georgia Southern	82.7	83.9	82.6	83.1
114	East Carolina	82.3	81.4	81.2	81.6
115	Connecticut	81.9	82.0	80.4	81.4
116	Liberty	81.7	79.9	82.2	81.3
117	Colo. State	80.6	81.9	80.7	81.1
118	Kent St.	80.8	82.1	80.2	81.0
119	U T S A	78.9	83.7	79.8	80.8
120	Louisiana	79.3	81.5	80.3	80.4
121	Hawaii	79.8	82.0	78.3	80.0
122	N. Mexico St.	78.9	81.6	79.2	79.9
123	Ball St.	78.2	80.9	77.9	79.0
124	Georgia St.	77.6	80.6	78.4	78.9
125	Charlotte	76.7	79.2	76.8	77.6
126	San Jose St.	76.3	77.1	74.5	76.0
127	Coastal Carolina	73.8	76.7	74.2	74.9
128	Texas State	70.7	73.8	69.9	71.5
129	Rice	70.5	73.6	69.2	71.1
130	U T E P	68.7	71.9	68.0	69.5

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	113.0	112.8	113.1	113.0	1-0	1-0
South Florida	95.8	99.1	96.7	97.2	0-0	1-0
Temple	93.3	93.3	93.7	93.4	0-0	0-1
Cincinnati	89.7	91.0	89.2	89.9	0-0	1-0
East Carolina	82.3	81.4	81.2	81.6	0-0	0-1
Connecticut	81.9	82.0	80.4	81.4	0-1	0-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	105.2	107.3	106.7	106.4	0-0	1-0
Houston	99.1	100.6	99.8	99.8	0-0	1-0
Tulane	95.5	95.6	95.1	95.4	0-0	0-1
Navy	94.5	97.3	93.8	95.2	0-0	0-1
Tulsa	91.9	90.4	92.4	91.6	0-0	1-0
SMU	92.0	91.1	90.7	91.3	0-0	0-1
AAC Averages	94.5	95.1	94.4	94.7
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	131.9	128.6	132.8	131.1	0-0	1-0
Boston College	118.1	115.1	118.4	117.2	0-0	1-0
N. Carolina St.	113.6	112.8	113.4	113.3	0-0	1-0
Florida St.	109.7	109.0	109.3	109.3	0-1	0-1
Wake Forest	108.7	106.5	106.2	107.1	0-0	1-0
Syracuse	106.3	104.7	105.1	105.4	0-0	1-0
Louisville	103.6	103.4	103.0	103.3	0-0	0-1
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	117.1	115.1	116.7	116.3	0-0	0-1
Virginia Tech	116.1	115.6	116.0	115.9	1-0	1-0
Duke	113.3	110.7	112.4	112.2	0-0	1-0
Georgia Tech	112.5	111.2	112.1	112.0	0-0	1-0
Pittsburgh	105.5	105.2	104.7	105.2	0-0	1-0
N. Carolina	105.3	104.3	104.7	104.8	0-0	0-1
Virginia	101.9	102.4	100.3	101.5	0-0	1-0
ACC Averages	111.7	110.3	111.1	111.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	122.5	121.1	123.1	122.2	0-0	1-0
T C U	112.9	112.2	111.7	112.2	0-0	1-0
Oklahoma St.	113.2	110.8	112.7	112.2	0-0	1-0
West Virginia	111.6	110.8	111.0	111.1	0-0	1-0
Iowa State	110.5	108.6	110.0	109.7	0-0	0-0
Texas	109.8	108.3	108.9	109.0	0-0	0-1
Kansas St.	106.8	105.4	106.2	106.1	0-0	1-0
Texas Tech	103.2	101.3	101.4	102.0	0-0	0-1
Baylor	102.7	100.4	102.1	101.7	0-0	1-0
Kansas	93.5	91.9	91.2	92.2	0-0	0-1
Big 12 Averages	108.7	107.1	107.8	107.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	126.2	123.5	126.8	125.5	0-0	1-0
Michigan St.	124.7	122.4	124.8	124.0	0-0	1-0
Michigan	121.6	120.2	122.3	121.3	0-0	0-1
Penn St.	116.7	113.5	117.0	115.7	0-0	1-0
Maryland	104.6	102.8	103.4	103.6	0-0	1-0
Rutgers	98.1	97.1	96.2	97.1	0-0	1-0
Indiana	97.6	96.5	97.1	97.1	0-0	1-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	121.7	118.6	121.7	120.7	0-0	1-0
Northwestern	114.8	112.8	115.2	114.3	1-0	1-0
Iowa	113.7	111.2	112.9	112.6	0-0	1-0
Purdue	107.9	106.1	106.8	106.9	0-1	0-1
Minnesota	106.0	105.2	105.5	105.6	0-0	1-0
Nebraska	100.3	98.5	97.6	98.8	0-0	0-0
Illinois	92.9	92.5	91.7	92.4	0-0	1-0
Big Ten Averages	110.5	108.6	109.9	109.7
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	99.3	99.9	100.3	99.8	0-0	0-1
Marshall	94.7	97.6	95.9	96.1	0-0	1-0
Middle Tennessee	89.1	90.8	90.0	90.0	0-0	0-1
Florida Int’l.	82.2	86.6	82.8	83.9	0-0	0-1
W. Kentucky	82.3	85.7	83.4	83.8	0-0	0-1
Old Dominion	82.0	86.3	82.0	83.5	0-0	0-1
Charlotte	76.7	79.2	76.8	77.6	0-0	1-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	95.8	98.7	96.6	97.0	0-0	1-0
Louisiana Tech	93.3	95.8	94.5	94.5	0-0	1-0
U A B	91.8	94.3	92.2	92.8	0-0	1-0
Southern Miss.	82.3	85.7	82.8	83.6	0-0	1-0
U T S A	78.9	83.7	79.8	80.8	0-0	0-1
Rice	70.5	73.6	69.2	71.1	0-0	1-1
U T E P	68.7	71.9	68.0	69.5	0-0	0-1
CUSA Averages	84.8	87.8	85.3	86.0
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	125.7	121.9	124.1	123.9	x	1-0
BYU	99.0	99.8	99.6	99.4	x	1-0
Army	95.6	96.1	95.5	95.8	x	0-1
Massachusetts	90.5	92.5	92.3	91.8	x	1-1
Liberty	81.7	79.9	82.2	81.3	x	1-0
N. Mexico St.	78.9	81.6	79.2	79.9	x	0-2
Indep.  Averages	95.2	95.3	95.5	95.3
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	94.5	96.9	95.6	95.7	0-0	1-0
Ohio U	94.4	95.8	95.7	95.3	0-0	1-0
Miami (O)	91.1	93.4	92.5	92.3	0-0	0-1
Akron	90.3	91.9	90.5	90.9	0-0	0-0
Bowling Green	85.0	85.3	85.6	85.3	0-0	0-1
Kent St.	80.8	82.1	80.2	81.0	0-0	0-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	97.0	99.1	97.1	97.7	0-0	1-0
Northern Illinois	95.8	96.7	95.7	96.1	0-0	0-1
Western Michigan	91.4	93.3	92.4	92.4	0-0	0-1
Eastern Michigan	89.6	91.0	90.3	90.3	0-0	1-0
Central Michigan	85.6	88.9	86.1	86.9	0-0	0-1
Ball St.	78.2	80.9	77.9	79.0	0-0	1-0
MAC Averages	89.5	91.3	90.0	90.2
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	113.3	112.8	114.3	113.5	0-0	1-0
Utah St.	100.3	101.5	101.9	101.2	0-0	0-1
Wyoming	98.0	98.1	97.8	97.9	0-0	1-1
Air Force	92.7	92.7	91.9	92.4	0-0	1-0
New Mexico	85.9	87.8	85.5	86.4	0-0	1-0
Colo. State	80.6	81.9	80.7	81.1	0-1	0-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	108.5	106.9	108.2	107.9	0-0	1-0
San Diego St.	98.9	99.5	100.1	99.5	0-0	0-1
Nevada	93.7	93.8	93.9	93.8	0-0	1-0
U N L V	89.3	90.8	89.8	90.0	0-0	0-1
Hawaii	79.8	82.0	78.3	80.0	1-0	2-0
San Jose St.	76.3	77.1	74.5	76.0	0-0	0-1
MWC Averages	93.1	93.7	93.1	93.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	126.9	124.4	129.3	126.8	0-0	0-1
Stanford	120.1	117.5	120.7	119.4	0-0	1-0
Oregon	114.5	114.6	115.2	114.8	0-0	1-0
California	110.0	107.2	109.6	108.9	0-0	1-0
Washington St.	108.6	107.7	107.5	107.9	0-0	1-0
Oregon St.	87.4	84.8	85.7	86.0	0-0	0-1
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
U S C	112.3	110.7	111.6	111.5	0-0	1-0
Utah	111.5	109.5	112.4	111.2	0-0	1-0
Arizona St.	106.7	105.2	105.6	105.8	0-0	1-0
Arizona	106.1	104.1	106.0	105.4	0-0	0-1
Colorado	100.6	102.3	102.0	101.6	0-0	1-0
U C L A	98.9	98.7	96.3	97.9	0-0	0-1
Pac-12 Averages	108.6	107.2	108.5	108.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	131.1	126.5	132.6	130.0	0-0	1-0
Missouri	114.6	112.9	116.2	114.5	0-0	1-0
Florida	113.4	111.1	113.8	112.7	0-0	1-0
S. Carolina	112.3	111.4	111.6	111.8	0-0	1-0
Kentucky	106.0	104.9	105.4	105.4	0-0	1-0
Vanderbilt	99.1	100.1	99.2	99.5	0-0	1-0
Tennessee	96.9	97.2	96.2	96.8	0-0	0-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	133.5	131.2	135.4	133.4	0-0	1-0
Auburn	123.2	121.8	125.8	123.6	0-0	1-0
Mississippi St.	122.8	119.5	123.0	121.8	0-0	1-0
L S U	112.8	112.9	113.5	113.1	0-0	1-0
Texas A&M	111.2	110.1	111.2	110.8	0-0	1-0
Ole Miss	107.8	107.5	108.6	107.9	0-0	1-0
Arkansas	109.4	106.5	107.7	107.9	0-0	1-0
SEC Averages	113.9	112.4	114.3	113.5
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	91.5	92.8	92.8	92.3	0-0	0-1
Troy	89.2	90.7	90.8	90.2	0-0	0-1
Georgia Southern	82.7	83.9	82.6	83.1	0-0	1-0
Georgia St.	77.6	80.6	78.4	78.9	0-0	1-0
Coastal Carolina	73.8	76.7	74.2	74.9	0-0	0-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	88.0	89.8	89.7	89.2	0-0	1-0
UL-Monroe	87.1	86.5	87.9	87.2	0-0	1-0
South Alabama	81.9	84.4	83.3	83.2	0-0	0-1
Louisiana	79.3	81.5	80.3	80.4	0-0	1-0
Texas State	70.7	73.8	69.9	71.5	0-0	0-1
Sun Belt Averages	82.2	84.1	83.0	83.1

Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	113.9	112.4	114.3	113.5
2	ACC	111.7	110.3	111.1	111.0
3	BTEN	110.5	108.6	109.9	109.7
4	P-12	108.6	107.2	108.5	108.1
5	B12	108.7	107.1	107.8	107.9
6	IND	95.2	95.3	95.5	95.3
7	AAC	94.5	95.1	94.4	94.7
8	MWC	93.1	93.7	93.1	93.3
9	MAC	89.5	91.3	90.0	90.2
10	CUSA	84.8	87.8	85.3	86.0
11	SBC	82.2	84.1	83.0	83.1

This Week’s PiRate Ratings’ Spreads

Friday	September 7
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
SMU	TCU	-19.4	-19.5	-19.5

Saturday	September 8
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Army	Liberty	16.4	18.7	15.8
Coastal Carolina	UAB	-15.5	-15.1	-15.6
South Florida	Georgia Tech	-13.7	-9.1	-12.4
Michigan	Western Michigan	32.7	29.3	32.3
Charlotte	Appalachian St.	-12.7	-11.6	-13.9
Purdue	Eastern Michigan	21.3	18.2	19.5
Wisconsin	New Mexico	38.8	33.8	39.2
Florida Atlantic	Air Force	9.6	10.2	11.4
Old Dominion	Florida Int’l.	2.3	2.3	1.7
Northwestern	Duke	4.6	5.0	5.8
Kansas St.	Mississippi St.	-13.1	-11.1	-13.8
Houston	Arizona	-3.9	-0.5	-3.2
Vanderbilt	Nevada	8.4	9.3	8.3
North Carolina St.	Georgia St.	39.1	35.2	38.0
Oklahoma	UCLA	26.6	25.4	29.8
Utah St.	New Mexico St.	24.4	22.9	25.7
Central Michigan	Kansas	-4.9	0.0	-2.1
UNLV	UTEP	23.6	22.0	24.9
Navy	Memphis	-7.7	-7.0	-9.9
East Carolina	North Carolina	-21.0	-20.9	-21.5
Ohio St.	Rutgers	31.0	29.4	33.6
Temple	Buffalo	0.8	-1.6	0.1
South Carolina	Georgia	-15.8	-12.1	-18.0
UTSA	Baylor	-21.3	-14.2	-19.8
Alabama	Arkansas St.	48.6	44.4	48.6
Nebraska	Colorado	2.6	-0.8	-1.4
Southern Miss.	UL-Monroe	-2.3	1.7	-2.6
Notre Dame	Ball St.	50.4	44.0	49.2
Iowa	Iowa St.	4.8	4.1	4.3
Bowling Green	Maryland	-17.1	-15.0	-15.2
Georgia Southern	Massachusetts	-4.8	-5.6	-6.7
Texas A&M	Clemson	-17.8	-15.5	-18.6
Missouri	Wyoming	19.6	17.8	21.4
Indiana	Virginia	-1.3	-2.9	-0.2
Florida	Kentucky	10.4	9.2	11.4
Northern Illinois	Utah	-12.8	-9.8	-13.7
Minnesota	Fresno St.	0.5	1.3	0.3
Colorado St.	Arkansas	-25.8	-21.6	-24.0
Miami (O)	Cincinnati	2.9	3.9	4.8
Texas	Tulsa	20.9	20.9	19.4
Oklahoma St.	South Alabama	34.3	29.4	32.3
Pittsburgh	Penn St.	-8.7	-5.7	-9.7
Stanford	USC	10.8	9.7	12.2
BYU	California	-8.0	-4.4	-7.0
Boise St.	Connecticut	34.4	33.8	36.9
Arizona St.	Michigan St.	-15.1	-14.3	-16.2
Washington St.	San Jose St.	35.3	33.6	36.0
Hawaii	Rice	13.3	12.4	13.1

This Week’s Bowl and Playoff Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Wyoming	Louisiana Tech
Cure	AAC	SBC	Navy	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	Arizona St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Georgia Southern
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Western Kentucky	Louisiana-Lafayette
Boca Raton	MAC	CUSA	Ohio U	Florida Int’l.
Frisco	AAC	MAC	Cincinnati	Buffalo
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	Marshall
Bahamas	AAC	CUSA	Central Florida	North Texas
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Utah St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	[UAB]	[UL-Monroe]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[BYU]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Troy
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Florida Atlantic	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[California]	Southern Miss.
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Virginia	[Army]
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	[Air Force]	Colorado
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[Middle Tennessee]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina St.	Minnesota
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Louisville	Arkansas
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Boston College	West Virginia
Arizona	MWC	SBC	San Diego St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Oregon
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	TCU	Boise St.
Military	AAC	ACC	South Florida	Duke
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Georgia Tech	Utah
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Washington St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Kansas St.	Missouri
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	Stanford
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	LSU
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Auburn
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	USC	Ohio St.
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Wisconsin	Mississippi St.
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan St.	Washington
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Florida
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton	FBS	PLAYOFF	Alabama	Notre Dame
Orange	FBS	PLAYOFF	Clemson	Georgia
National Championship Game	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings 2016 College Football Championship Game Preview

2016 College Football Playoffs National Championship Game Information

Date: Monday, January 11, 2016

Site: University of Phoenix Stadium: Glendale, Arizona

TV Network: ESPN

Approximate Kickoff: 8:30 PM EST

Talent: Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Heather Cox, Tom Rinaldi

Radio Network: ESPN

Talent: Mike Tirico, Todd Blackledge, Holly Rowe, Joe Schad

 

Opponents: #1 Clemson (14-0) vs. #2 Alabama (13-1)

Las Vegas Spread (avg.): Alabama by 6 1/2

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Alabama by 10.0 expected score 34-24

Mean: Alabama by 7.1 expected score 31-24

Bias: Alabama by 9.7 expected score 34-24

Average: Alabama by 8.9 expected score 33-24

 

100 Computer Simulations

Alabama wins: 86

Clemson wins: 14

Average Score: Alabama 34.9  Clemson 23.4

Standard Deviation: 8.9

Alabama Outlier: Alabama 42  Clemson 20

Clemson Outlier: Clemson 37  Alabama 23

PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Playoffs–Semifinal Round

The Semifinal Round of the 2015-16 PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated Playoffs have been played, and the Final Four has now been whittled down to two.

 

In case you are wondering why Michigan St., Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Stanford are the Final Four teams, this season’s simulation used the Football Championship Series format of 24 teams.  Michigan St. defeated Baylor and Iowa to make it to the semifinals.  Ole Miss defeated Houston, Clemson, and North Carolina, as the Rebels were the #16 seed and had to win a play-in game to make it to the Sweet 16.  Oklahoma defeated Michigan and Ohio St., while Stanford got here by knocking off Florida St. and Alabama.

 

Here are the Final Four Semifinal Results.

Semifinal Round	1	2	3	4	F	FD	Rush	Pass	Total
#16 Ole Miss	3	14	7	3	27	18	129	268	397
#5 Michigan St.	0	7	10	0	17	17	161	158	327
#3 Oklahoma	0	3	21	7	31	22	154	247	401
#7 Stanford	7	6	0	7	20	17	169	158	327

This sets up Simper Bowl IX at Arlington, Texas, next week.  16th-seed Ole Miss will play 3rd-seed Oklahoma.

 

Fear not ye of computer simulation tremors.  Next week, we will run our annual 100 sims on the playoff games–the real ones where that sugar-addicted dude Larry Culpepper will be lurking around somewhere.

 

 

PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Playoffs–Quarterfinal Round

The first two rounds of the Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs have been previously posted here.  Today’s Quarterfinal Round featured three teams from the Big Ten, two from the SEC, and one each from the ACC, Big 12, and Pac-12.

If you have not been following our 2015-16 tournament, we are using the same 24-team format currently in use by the Football Championship Division.  Here are the contests for the football version of the Elite 8.

Quarterfinal Round		1	2	3	4	F	FD	Rush	Pass	Total
#16 Ole Miss	at	10	14	0	3	27	24	163	242	405
#8 North Carolina		7	6	3	0	16	17	145	189	334
#7 Stanford	at	7	0	3	7	17	12	130	169	299
#2 Alabama		3	3	7	0	13	17	202	116	318
#6 Ohio St.	at	0	3	14	3	20	20	221	106	327
#3 Oklahoma		5	7	14	0	26	22	137	303	440
#5 Michigan St.	at	3	3	7	10	23	19	129	222	351
#4 Iowa		0	14	0	7	21	16	172	133	305

The Final Four is now set.  In next week’s semifinal round, it will be:

#16 Ole Miss vs. #5 Michigan St. at the Orange Bowl

#7 Stanford vs. #3 Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl

PiRate Ratings Final Bowl Projections

80 teams, but only 77 of them are 6-6 or better.  Nebraska, Minnesota, and San Jose State are the three 5-7 teams with the top APR scores, excluding Missouri, which opted out.

 

The at-large selections came down to an issue with one bowl where it appears that two teams from the same conference will be forced to play.  We selected a matchup of teams that avoided each other in conference play in making our final projections.

 

Our regular ratings and actual bowl coverage will begin Monday after all actual choices have been made.

 

BOWL PROJECTIONS–December 6, 2015

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
Cure	AAC	SBC	Tulsa	vs.	Georgia St.
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	vs.	Central Michigan *
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC/BYU	Utah	vs.	BYU
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ohio	vs.	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	vs.	Arkansas St.
Miami Beach	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	vs.	Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	San Jose St. *	vs.	Colorado St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Temple	vs.	Toledo
Poinsettia	MWC	Army	Boise St.	vs.	Northern Illinois
GoDaddy	MAC	SBC	Bowling Green	vs.	Georgia Southern
Bahamas	CUSA	MAC	Middle Tennessee	vs.	Western Michigan
Hawaii	AAC	MWC/BYU	Cincinnati	vs.	San Diego St.
St. Petersburg	AAC	CUSA	Connecticut	vs.	Marshall
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Miami	vs.	USC
Heart of Dallas	Big 12	CUSA	Utah St. *	vs.	Southern Miss.
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	vs.	Indiana
Independence	SEC	ACC	Arizona *	vs.	Duke
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Nebraska	vs.	UCLA
Military	ACC	AAC	North Carolina St.	vs.	Navy
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Akron *	vs.	Minnesota
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Washington *	vs.	Air Force
Russell Athletic	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina	vs.	Baylor
Arizona	CUSA	MWC	Arizona St. *	vs.	Nevada
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	vs.	LSU
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Memphis	vs.	Auburn
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	vs.	Mississippi St.
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Louisville	vs.	Texas A&M
Peach	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	Florida St.	vs.	Houston
Cotton	Playoff	Playoff	Alabama	vs.	Michigan St.
Orange	Playoff	Playoff	Clemson	vs.	Oklahoma
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	vs.	Washington St.
Ouback	Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	vs.	Tennessee
Citrus	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan	vs.	Florida
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Ole Miss
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	vs.	Stanford
Fiesta	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	Iowa	vs.	Notre Dame
TaxSlayer	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	vs.	Georgia
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Kansas St.	vs.	Arkansas
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	vs.	Oregon
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	vs.	California
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Michigan St.	vs.	Oklahoma
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot

Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs 2015-16: Round 1

The 2015-16 Computer Simulated Playoffs for FBS football has been extended to 24 teams, using the same format that is presently used for the actual FCS playoffs.

 

In today’s opening round, the number 9 through 24 seeds play at the home stadium of the better seed, while the top 8 seeds receive a bye to the second round, where they will host winners from today’s round.

 

For this computer simulation, we simulated each game only one time.  If we had done 100 or 1,000 simulations for each game, there would be no upsets, and the top seeds would have won every contest, making this experiment useless.

 

Here is today’s Schedule of Round 1 Games:

#24 Arkansas St. at #9 Notre Dame

#23 Bowling Green at #10 Florida St.

#22 Western Kentucky at #11 TCU

#21 San Diego St. at #12 Baylor

#20 Utah at #13 Northwestern

#19 Michigan at #14 Oregon

#18 Michigan at #15 Oklahoma St.

#17 Houston at #16 Ole Miss

 

Here are the results of those Round 1 games:

Team	1	2	3	4	F	FD	Rush	Pass	Total
#9 Notre Dame	14	14	10	0	38	24	211	174	385
#24 Arkansas St.	0	3	0	7	10	13	12	169	181
#10 Florida St.	6	14	10	7	37	23	179	301	480
#23 Bowling Green	3	7	3	7	20	18	86	311	397
#11 TCU	20	14	10	7	51	30	221	307	528
#22 Western Kent.	2	0	14	7	23	18	90	276	366
#12 Baylor	0	3	14	10	27	19	179	194	373
#21 San Diego St.	0	0	7	6	13	14	156	138	294
#13 Northwestern	3	3	10	3	19	16	180	147	327
#20 Utah	0	10	7	0	17	17	91	164	255
#14 Oklahoma St.	10	0	7	7	24	20	152	223	375
#19 Michigan	6	14	7	0	27	22	164	209	373
#15 Oregon	3	13	9	0	25	18	208	159	367
#18 Florida	3	6	3	0	12	12	114	126	240
#16 Ole Miss	16	14	6	3	39	27	177	331	508
#17 Houston	7	10	7	0	24	18	88	209	297

Here are the Round 2 Pairings to be published Friday or Saturday, December 11-12

Second Round
#9 Notre Dame	at
#8 North Carolina
#10 Florida St.	at
#7 Stanford
#11 TCU	at
#6 Ohio St.
#12 Baylor	at
#5 Michigan St.
#13 Northwestern	at
#4 Iowa
#19 Michigan	at
#3 Oklahoma
#15 Oregon	at
#2 Alabama
#16 Ole Miss	at
#1 Clemson

PiRate Ratings 2013 College Football Computer Simulation Playoffs

1. This is a 12-team tournament, using bowls for the first two rounds to get from 12 to 8 to 4.

2. The champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 receive automatic bids.

3. The champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sunbelt receive automatic bids if any finish in the top 16 of the RPI rankings, which replaces the BCS and has mathematical values that multiple mathematicians can determine and cannot be finagled in any way by football politicians in a back room.  For this experiment, we are using an average of the top college ratings, including the PiRate Ratings.

4. We then select the two to seven highest RPI-ranked teams (to fill the bracket at 12 total) not automatically selected and give them berths in the tournament.

5. We then seed the teams by RPI ranking from 1-12.  The top 4 teams would receive a first round bye as a reward for being one of the top four, while seeds 5-12 would face off in the first round.

This year, there were six automatic qualifiers and six at-large selections.  Florida St., Baylor, Michigan St., Auburn, and Stanford satisfy the #2 criteria above, whereas Central Florida satisfies #3.  The six at-large teams are: Alabama, Missouri, Ohio St., South Carolina, Oregon, and Oklahoma.

If this were next year, there would be a gross miscarriage of justice to the teams that are not number four.  Florida St., Auburn, and Alabama would definitely be three of the teams chosen.  Baylor, Michigan St., Stanford, Ohio St., Missouri, South Carolina, and Oregon would all have reason to be that fourth team, and only one of this seven would be chosen.  Now, the first team out is Clemson, not quite as deserving as any of the seven above, all of whom now make the 12-team tournament.

Here are the teams, seeded 1-12

1. Florida St.

2. Auburn

3. Alabama

4. Stanford

5. Michigan St.

6. Missouri

7. Ohio St.

8. South Carolina

9. Baylor

10. Oregon

11. Oklahoma

12. Central Florida

The top four seeds receive first round byes, while teams 5-12 play at neutral site bowls.

Here are the results for Round One.  Round Two will be published next Friday.  The Semifinals will be published New Year’s Eve, and the Championship Game will be published Friday, January 3.

# 5 Michigan St. 12-1 vs. #12 Central Florida 11-1

 

Michigan St. 20  Central Florida 10

 

Mich St.	Team	Cent. Fla
17	FD	14
35-138	Rushing	24-87
223	Passing	239
21-38-0	Passes	25-42-3
73	Play	66
361	Yards	326
	1	2	3	4	F
Mich St.	3	7	0	10	20
Cent. Fla	0	0	7	3	10

 

 

#6 Missouri 11-2 vs. #11 Oklahoma 10-2

 

Missouri 44 Oklahoma 35

 

Missouri	Team	Oklahoma
22	FD	25
45-188	Rushing	44-218
251	Passing	209
18-31-1	Passes	19-34-1
76	Play	78
439	Yards	427
	1	2	3	4	F
Missouri	13	14	7	10	44
Oklahoma	7	14	0	14	35

 

 

#7 Ohio St. 12-1 vs. #10 Oregon 10-2

 

Oregon 48  Ohio St. 29

 

Ohio St.	Team	Oregon
21	FD	24
41-179	Rushing	51-275
221	Passing	286
17-28-1	Passes	22-34-0
69	Play	85
400	Yards	561
	1	2	3	4	F
Ohio St.	10	6	6	7	29
Oregon	11	20	14	3	48

 

 

#8 South Carolina vs. #9 Baylor

 

South Carolina 34  Baylor 19

 

S Car	Team	Bay
19	FD	22
47-197	Rushing	32-79
127	Passing	241
12-19-0	Passes	23-43-3
66	Play	75
324	Yards	320
	1	2	3	4	F
S Car	10	10	7	7	34
Bay	7	9	0	3	19

 

 

The Elite Eight Schedule

#1 Florida St. 13-0 vs. #8 South Carolina 11-2

#2 Auburn 12-1 vs. #10 Oregon 11-2

#3 Alabama 11-1 vs. #6 Missouri 12-2

#4 Stanford 11-2 vs. #5 Michigan St. 13-1