The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 5, 2016

PiRate Ratings 2016 College Football Championship Game Preview

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , — piratings @ 6:42 am

2016 College Football Playoffs National Championship Game Information

Date: Monday, January 11, 2016

Site: University of Phoenix Stadium: Glendale, Arizona

TV Network: ESPN

Approximate Kickoff: 8:30 PM EST

Talent: Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Heather Cox, Tom Rinaldi

Radio Network: ESPN

Talent: Mike Tirico, Todd Blackledge, Holly Rowe, Joe Schad

 

Opponents: #1 Clemson (14-0) vs. #2 Alabama (13-1)

Las Vegas Spread (avg.): Alabama by 6 1/2

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Alabama by 10.0 expected score 34-24

Mean: Alabama by 7.1 expected score 31-24

Bias: Alabama by 9.7 expected score 34-24

Average: Alabama by 8.9 expected score 33-24

 

100 Computer Simulations

Alabama wins: 86

Clemson wins: 14

Average Score: Alabama 34.9  Clemson 23.4

Standard Deviation: 8.9

Alabama Outlier: Alabama 42  Clemson 20

Clemson Outlier: Clemson 37  Alabama 23

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December 26, 2015

PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Playoffs–Semifinal Round

The Semifinal Round of the 2015-16 PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated Playoffs have been played, and the Final Four has now been whittled down to two.

 

In case you are wondering why Michigan St., Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Stanford are the Final Four teams, this season’s simulation used the Football Championship Series format of 24 teams.  Michigan St. defeated Baylor and Iowa to make it to the semifinals.  Ole Miss defeated Houston, Clemson, and North Carolina, as the Rebels were the #16 seed and had to win a play-in game to make it to the Sweet 16.  Oklahoma defeated Michigan and Ohio St., while Stanford got here by knocking off Florida St. and Alabama.

 

Here are the Final Four Semifinal Results.

Semifinal Round 1 2 3 4 F FD Rush Pass Total
#16 Ole Miss 3 14 7 3 27 18 129 268 397
#5 Michigan St. 0 7 10 0 17 17 161 158 327
                   
#3 Oklahoma 0 3 21 7 31 22 154 247 401
#7 Stanford 7 6 0 7 20 17 169 158 327

This sets up Simper Bowl IX at Arlington, Texas, next week.  16th-seed Ole Miss will play 3rd-seed Oklahoma.

 

Fear not ye of computer simulation tremors.  Next week, we will run our annual 100 sims on the playoff games–the real ones where that sugar-addicted dude Larry Culpepper will be lurking around somewhere.

 

 

December 19, 2015

PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Playoffs–Quarterfinal Round

The first two rounds of the Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs have been previously posted here.  Today’s Quarterfinal Round featured three teams from the Big Ten, two from the SEC, and one each from the ACC, Big 12, and Pac-12.

If you have not been following our 2015-16 tournament, we are using the same 24-team format currently in use by the Football Championship Division.  Here are the contests for the football version of the Elite 8.

Quarterfinal Round   1 2 3 4 F FD Rush Pass Total
#16 Ole Miss at 10 14 0 3 27 24 163 242 405
#8 North Carolina   7 6 3 0 16 17 145 189 334
                     
#7 Stanford at 7 0 3 7 17 12 130 169 299
#2 Alabama   3 3 7 0 13 17 202 116 318
                     
#6 Ohio St. at 0 3 14 3 20 20 221 106 327
#3 Oklahoma   5 7 14 0 26 22 137 303 440
                     
#5 Michigan St. at 3 3 7 10 23 19 129 222 351
#4 Iowa   0 14 0 7 21 16 172 133 305

The Final Four is now set.  In next week’s semifinal round, it will be:

#16 Ole Miss vs. #5 Michigan St. at the Orange Bowl

#7 Stanford vs. #3 Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl

December 6, 2015

PiRate Ratings Final Bowl Projections

80 teams, but only 77 of them are 6-6 or better.  Nebraska, Minnesota, and San Jose State are the three 5-7 teams with the top APR scores, excluding Missouri, which opted out.

 

The at-large selections came down to an issue with one bowl where it appears that two teams from the same conference will be forced to play.  We selected a matchup of teams that avoided each other in conference play in making our final projections.

 

Our regular ratings and actual bowl coverage will begin Monday after all actual choices have been made.

 

BOWL PROJECTIONS–December 6, 2015

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC Tulsa vs. Georgia St.
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Central Michigan *
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Utah vs. BYU
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio vs. Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech vs. Arkansas St.
Miami Beach AAC CUSA South Florida vs. Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato MAC MWC San Jose St. * vs. Colorado St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Temple vs. Toledo
Poinsettia MWC Army Boise St. vs. Northern Illinois
GoDaddy MAC SBC Bowling Green vs. Georgia Southern
Bahamas CUSA MAC Middle Tennessee vs. Western Michigan
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Cincinnati vs. San Diego St.
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA Connecticut vs. Marshall
Sun ACC Pac-12 Miami vs. USC
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Utah St. * vs. Southern Miss.
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Indiana
Independence SEC ACC Arizona * vs. Duke
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Nebraska vs. UCLA
Military ACC AAC North Carolina St. vs. Navy
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Akron * vs. Minnesota
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Washington * vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 North Carolina vs. Baylor
Arizona CUSA MWC Arizona St. * vs. Nevada
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. LSU
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis vs. Auburn
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Tech vs. Mississippi St.
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Louisville vs. Texas A&M
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Florida St. vs. Houston
Cotton Playoff Playoff Alabama vs. Michigan St.
Orange Playoff Playoff Clemson vs. Oklahoma
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin vs. Washington St.
Ouback Big Ten SEC Northwestern vs. Tennessee
Citrus Big Ten SEC Michigan vs. Florida
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. vs. Ole Miss
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. vs. Stanford
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Iowa vs. Notre Dame
TaxSlayer ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Georgia
Liberty Big 12 SEC Kansas St. vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. Oregon
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia vs. California
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Michigan St. vs. Oklahoma
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot

December 5, 2015

Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs 2015-16: Round 1

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:44 am

The 2015-16 Computer Simulated Playoffs for FBS football has been extended to 24 teams, using the same format that is presently used for the actual FCS playoffs.

 

In today’s opening round, the number 9 through 24 seeds play at the home stadium of the better seed, while the top 8 seeds receive a bye to the second round, where they will host winners from today’s round.

 

For this computer simulation, we simulated each game only one time.  If we had done 100 or 1,000 simulations for each game, there would be no upsets, and the top seeds would have won every contest, making this experiment useless.

 

Here is today’s Schedule of Round 1 Games:

#24 Arkansas St. at #9 Notre Dame

#23 Bowling Green at #10 Florida St.

#22 Western Kentucky at #11 TCU

#21 San Diego St. at #12 Baylor

#20 Utah at #13 Northwestern

#19 Michigan at #14 Oregon

#18 Michigan at #15 Oklahoma St.

#17 Houston at #16 Ole Miss

 

Here are the results of those Round 1 games:

Team 1 2 3 4 F FD Rush Pass Total
#9 Notre Dame 14 14 10 0 38 24 211 174 385
#24 Arkansas St. 0 3 0 7 10 13 12 169 181
 
#10 Florida St. 6 14 10 7 37 23 179 301 480
#23 Bowling Green 3 7 3 7 20 18 86 311 397
#11 TCU 20 14 10 7 51 30 221 307 528
#22 Western Kent. 2 0 14 7 23 18 90 276 366
#12 Baylor 0 3 14 10 27 19 179 194 373
#21 San Diego St. 0 0 7 6 13 14 156 138 294
#13 Northwestern 3 3 10 3 19 16 180 147 327
#20 Utah 0 10 7 0 17 17 91 164 255
#14 Oklahoma St. 10 0 7 7 24 20 152 223 375
#19 Michigan 6 14 7 0 27 22 164 209 373
#15 Oregon 3 13 9 0 25 18 208 159 367
#18 Florida 3 6 3 0 12 12 114 126 240
#16 Ole Miss 16 14 6 3 39 27 177 331 508
#17 Houston 7 10 7 0 24 18 88 209 297

Here are the Round 2 Pairings to be published Friday or Saturday, December 11-12

Second Round
#9 Notre Dame at
#8 North Carolina  
   
#10 Florida St. at
#7 Stanford  
   
#11 TCU at
#6 Ohio St.  
   
#12 Baylor at
#5 Michigan St.  
   
#13 Northwestern at
#4 Iowa  
   
#19 Michigan at
#3 Oklahoma  
   
#15 Oregon at
#2 Alabama  
   
#16 Ole Miss at
#1 Clemson  

December 20, 2013

PiRate Ratings 2013 College Football Computer Simulation Playoffs

1. This is a 12-team tournament, using bowls for the first two rounds to get from 12 to 8 to 4.

2. The champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 receive automatic bids.

3. The champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sunbelt receive automatic bids if any finish in the top 16 of the RPI rankings, which replaces the BCS and has mathematical values that multiple mathematicians can determine and cannot be finagled in any way by football politicians in a back room.  For this experiment, we are using an average of the top college ratings, including the PiRate Ratings.

4. We then select the two to seven highest RPI-ranked teams (to fill the bracket at 12 total) not automatically selected and give them berths in the tournament.

5. We then seed the teams by RPI ranking from 1-12.  The top 4 teams would receive a first round bye as a reward for being one of the top four, while seeds 5-12 would face off in the first round.

This year, there were six automatic qualifiers and six at-large selections.  Florida St., Baylor, Michigan St., Auburn, and Stanford satisfy the #2 criteria above, whereas Central Florida satisfies #3.  The six at-large teams are: Alabama, Missouri, Ohio St., South Carolina, Oregon, and Oklahoma.

If this were next year, there would be a gross miscarriage of justice to the teams that are not number four.  Florida St., Auburn, and Alabama would definitely be three of the teams chosen.  Baylor, Michigan St., Stanford, Ohio St., Missouri, South Carolina, and Oregon would all have reason to be that fourth team, and only one of this seven would be chosen.  Now, the first team out is Clemson, not quite as deserving as any of the seven above, all of whom now make the 12-team tournament.

Here are the teams, seeded 1-12

1. Florida St.

2. Auburn

3. Alabama

4. Stanford

5. Michigan St.

6. Missouri

7. Ohio St.

8. South Carolina

9. Baylor

10. Oregon

11. Oklahoma

12. Central Florida

The top four seeds receive first round byes, while teams 5-12 play at neutral site bowls.

Here are the results for Round One.  Round Two will be published next Friday.  The Semifinals will be published New Year’s Eve, and the Championship Game will be published Friday, January 3.

# 5 Michigan St. 12-1 vs. #12 Central Florida 11-1

 

Michigan St. 20  Central Florida 10

 

Mich St.

Team

Cent. Fla

 

 

 

17

FD

14

 

 

 

35-138

Rushing

24-87

 

 

 

223

Passing

239

 

 

 

21-38-0

Passes

25-42-3

 

 

 

73

Play

66

 

 

 

361

Yards

326

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Mich St.

3

7

0

10

20

Cent. Fla

0

0

7

3

10

 

 

#6 Missouri 11-2 vs. #11 Oklahoma 10-2

 

Missouri 44 Oklahoma 35

 

Missouri

Team

Oklahoma

 

 

 

22

FD

25

 

 

 

45-188

Rushing

44-218

 

 

 

251

Passing

209

 

 

 

18-31-1

Passes

19-34-1

 

 

 

76

Play

78

 

 

 

439

Yards

427

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Missouri

13

14

7

10

44

Oklahoma

7

14

0

14

35

 

 

#7 Ohio St. 12-1 vs. #10 Oregon 10-2

 

Oregon 48  Ohio St. 29

 

Ohio St.

Team

Oregon

 

 

 

21

FD

24

 

 

 

41-179

Rushing

51-275

 

 

 

221

Passing

286

 

 

 

17-28-1

Passes

22-34-0

 

 

 

69

Play

85

 

 

 

400

Yards

561

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Ohio St.

10

6

6

7

29

Oregon

11

20

14

3

48

 

 

#8 South Carolina vs. #9 Baylor

 

South Carolina 34  Baylor 19

 

S Car

Team

Bay

 

 

 

19

FD

22

 

 

 

47-197

Rushing

32-79

 

 

 

127

Passing

241

 

 

 

12-19-0

Passes

23-43-3

 

 

 

66

Play

75

 

 

 

324

Yards

320

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

S Car

10

10

7

7

34

Bay

7

9

0

3

19

 

 

The Elite Eight Schedule

#1 Florida St. 13-0 vs. #8 South Carolina 11-2

#2 Auburn 12-1 vs. #10 Oregon 11-2

#3 Alabama 11-1 vs. #6 Missouri 12-2

#4 Stanford 11-2 vs. #5 Michigan St. 13-1

 

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