The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 5, 2018

What If… An NCAA Playoffs With No Committee Choices

Four teams are happy.  At least three teams are sad and feel slighted.  Oklahoma and Notre Dame have been invited to the playoffs.  Ohio State and Georgia were jilted.

There could be an argument for Oklahoma and Notre Dame over Ohio State and Georgia.  On the other hand, the folks that know best, those sharps in Nevada, would tell you that Georgia is the third best team in the nation.  Many computers will tell you that on December 29, 2018, Ohio State would be a better team than Oklahoma.

Imagine if specially appointed committees chose other things for the rest of us.  How would you like some insider former politicians explaining to you why Candidate A will be your President instead of Candidate B, even though all the political experts say that Candidate B would be the better Chief Excutive?

What is a special committee of psychologists chose who you will marry based on their criteria.  You may be in love with Michelle, but they may choose Kelly for you because she can balance a checkbook and you cannot?

What if the NFL had to choose just four teams for the playoffs.  This year, there are five really good teams in the Rams, Chiefs, Saints, Patriots, and Texans.  Maybe the Bears and Chargers are also among the four best.  Do you want a 12-4 division winner not making the NFL Playoffs?

Of course you don’t.  And, the fandom of college football doesn’t buy for a minute that the Selection Committee knows what it’s doing.  Let’s see any of them pick games against the spread.  If they are true experts, then they will put up results that make Billy Walters look like an amateur.

The four team playoff did nothing to solve the problems of the two-team BCS National Championship Game it replaced.  In fact, this year, you could make an excellent argument that just putting Alabama against Clemson would be a better option than picking four out of six or seven deserving teams.

Any legitimate FBS Playoffs must allow every FBS team a chance to play their way into said playoffs.  There are 130 FBS teams.  There needs to be no more than 64 top level teams and preferably 32, but let’s not even talk about separating the Power 5 from the Group of 5.  Let’s talk about honest realignment into 7 conferences of 16 teams  and 1 conference of 18 teams.  In an even better world, two FBS teams would drop down to FCS, leaving 128 teams.

Divide each conference into two divisions.  Every team within a division will play each other during the regular season plus three teams in the other division.  In the 18-team conference, there will be just two teams against the other division.  The rhyme and reason to which schools a team in the other division would play would be made by the league with a rotating schedule so that a different three teams would be played every year, possibly using the NFL’s strategy of having the prior first place team in one division playing the prior first place team in the other division and so on down to the prior last place teams playing each other.

At the end of the season, the top team in each division of each conference would then make the 16-team playoff.  In the first round, the division winners of each conference would play to determine the conference champion.  This would leave eight teams for eight playoff spots.

These conference championship games could be played on neutral sites like the current Power Five Conference Championship Games, or on the home field of the team with the better conference record with set tiebreakers to determine the higher seed if there is a tie.

With the number down to eight, the next round could be played on home fields of the higher seeds as determined by criteria that all teams and all fans will know, just like home field is determined in the NFL.  At no time will a committee of so-called experts determine who is in these playoffs and who will be the home team.

After this second round of the playoffs, the final four can then be played like it is today.

This would give every team a chance to play for the national title, just like all 350 Division 1 basketball teams have a chance.  If you think this isn’t fair to Alabama or Clemson to have to play more games to become national champion, then you must absolutely hate March Madness when Sister Jean and her Loyola Ramblers or Butler or Wichita State can make a run to the Final Four.  You must hate the fact that a Gonzaga can advance from a small program into one of the top 10 in the nation.

If the entire FBS has a chance to win the national title, then all programs will have a chance to do what Gonzaga has done in basketball.

Another bonus could be in scheduling.  Instead of an SEC team like Georgia scheduling Austin Peay and Massachusetts, or Alabama scheduling The Citadel, Arkansas State, and Louisiana (the one in Lafayette and not Baton Rouge), the national schedule makers could schedule Alabama and Oklahoma, or Georgia and Michigan.

What about the FBS vs. FCS games?  Why not give each FBS team two preseason games against FCS teams, where the FBS team pays the FCS team a check just like they do now?  With all the extra billions coming into this new paradigm, the FBS teams could keep these FCS programs solvent without putting a 63-3 pasting on them in a regular season game.

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September 22, 2015

College Football Preview: September 24-26, 2015

It was an interesting Week 3 in the college football world with Ole Miss topping off an incredible day by topping Alabama in Tuscaloosa.  Ohio State and TCU looked very beatable in narrow wins over Northern Illinois and SMU, while Georgia and Notre Dame pulled off convincing wins.

We start to ruminate about the playoff teams for this year, and you will see our first look at who we believe are the leaders in the clubhouse.  One of our readers, Gary in Toronto, has sent us a comment asking who we believe would have been the four playoff teams in recent years before the playoffs were real.  Gary, we did this one better.  We calculated who we thought would have made the playoffs all the way back to 1969, when we first began compiling ratings.

What follows is not who WE thought should have been in the playoffs; this is who we believe the COMMITTEE of the time period would have selected based on the same criteria they use today, plus our personal belief that politics do play a part.  Thus, deserving undefeated teams like Miami of Ohio and Toledo in the 1970’s, and maybe even Dartmouth in 1970 would have been excluded for one and two-loss teams from the power leagues.  For you trivia buffs, Dartmouth was actually a ranked team in 1970, the last Ivy League team to finish the season ranked in the then top 20 (Yale was the last Ivy League team to appear in the weekly rankings in 1972).

Here they are:

2013: 1-Florida St.,  2-Auburn,  3-Michigan St., 4-Alabama
2012: 1-Alabama, 2-Notre Dame, 3-Oregon, 4-Stanford
2011: 1-LSU, 2-Alabama, 3-Oklahoma St., 4-Oregon
2010: 1-Auburn, 2-Oregon, 3-TCU, 4-Stanford
2009: 1-Alabama, 2-Texas, 3-Florida, 4-Boise St.
2008: 1-Florida, 2-Oklahoma, 3-USC, 4-Utah
2007: 1-LSU, 2-Ohio St., 3-Kansas, 4-West Virginia
2006: 1-Ohio St., 2-Florida, 3-Michigan, 4-USC
2005: 1-Texas, 2-USC, 3-Penn St., 4-Virginia Tech
2004: 1-USC, 2-Oklahoma, 3-Auburn, 4-Utah
2003: 1-LSU, 2-Oklahoma, 3-USC, 4-Michigan
2002: 1-Ohio St., 2-Miami, 3-Georgia, 4-USC
2001: 1-Miami, 2-Nebraska, 3-Oregon, 4-Colorado
2000: 1-Oklahoma, 2-Florida St., 3-Miami, 4-Washington
1999: 1-Florida St., 2-Virginia Tech, 3-Nebraska, 4-Kansas St.
1998: 1-Tennessee. 2-Florida St., 3-Ohio St., 4-Kansas St.
1997: 1-Nebraska, 2-Michigan, 3-Florida St., 4-Tennessee
1996: 1-Florida St., 2-Florida, 3-Ohio St., 4-Arizona St.
1995: 1-Nebraska, 2-Florida, 3-Tennessee, 4-Ohio St.
1994: 1-Nebraska, 2-Penn St., 3-Miami, 4-Colorado
1993: 1-Florida St., 2-Notre Dame, 3-West Virginia, 4-Nebraska
1992: 1-Alabama. 2-Miami, 3-Texas A&M, 4-Florida St.
1991: 1-Miami, 2-Washington, 3-Alabama, 4-Michigan
1990: 1: Georgia Tech, 2-Colorado, 3-Miami, 4-Washington
1989: 1-Miami, 2-Notre Dame, 3-Colorado, 4-Tennessee
1988: 1-Notre Dame, 2-West Virginia, 3-Miami, 4-Florida St.
1987: 1-Miami, 2-Oklahoma 3-Florida St., 4-Syracuse
1986: 1-Miami, 2-Penn St., 3-Oklahoma, 4-Michigan
1985: 1-Oklahoma, 2-Penn St., 3-Michigan, 4-Miami
1984: 1-BYU, 2-Washington, 3-Nebraska, 4-Boston College
1983: 1-Nebraska, 2-Texas, 3-Miami, 4-Auburn
1982: 1-Georgia, 2-Penn St., 3-Nebraska, 4-SMU
1981: 1-Clemson, 2-Pittsburgh, 3-Georgia, 4-Penn St.
1980: 1-Georgia, 2-Pittsburgh, 3-Notre Dame, 4-Nebraska
1979: 1-Alabama, 2-USC, 3-Ohio St., 4-Oklahoma
1978: 1-Penn St., 2-USC, 3-Alabama, 4-Oklahoma
1977: 1-Texas, 2-Notre Dame, 3-Alabama, 4-Michigan
1976: 1-Pittsburgh, 2-Michigan, 3-Georgia, 4-USC
1975: 1-Ohio St., 2-Alabama, 3-Oklahoma, 4-Arizona St.
1974: 1-Alabama, 2-Ohio St., 3-USC, 4-Michigan
1973: 1-Notre Dame, 2-Alabama, 3-Penn St., 4-Ohio St.
1972: 1-USC, 2-Oklahoma, 3-Texas, 4-Michigan
1971: 1-Nebraska, 2-Oklahoma, 3-Alabama, 4-Michigan
1970: 1-Texas, 2-Nebraska, 3-Tennessee, 4-Notre Dame
1969: 1-Texas, 2-Penn St., 3-USC, 4-Missouri

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Ohio St. 133.4 124.0 134.3 130.6
2 Ole Miss 130.2 123.8 128.8 127.6
3 LSU 125.8 121.8 125.6 124.4
4 TCU 127.4 117.2 128.5 124.4
5 Alabama 125.0 123.3 124.6 124.3
6 Baylor 123.7 119.8 124.2 122.6
7 Notre Dame 123.4 119.4 123.9 122.2
8 Georgia 124.4 116.8 123.7 121.6
9 USC 121.5 118.2 121.9 120.5
10 Oklahoma 121.1 118.4 121.4 120.3
11 Georgia Tech 123.0 115.0 122.6 120.2
12 Oregon 122.8 114.8 122.2 119.9
13 UCLA 122.6 116.1 120.5 119.7
14 Texas A&M 120.4 118.6 119.4 119.5
15 Michigan St. 121.2 115.3 121.1 119.2
16 Tennessee 120.6 116.4 120.4 119.1
17 Stanford 118.4 117.2 118.6 118.1
18 California 118.1 113.1 118.6 116.6
19 Auburn 116.9 114.9 115.9 115.9
20 Clemson 115.3 116.5 115.2 115.7
21 Utah 117.8 112.1 117.0 115.6
22 Arkansas 117.4 111.1 116.3 114.9
23 Florida St. 114.9 115.3 113.6 114.6
24 Virginia Tech 115.4 111.8 115.8 114.3
25 North Carolina 113.7 113.7 113.3 113.6
26 West Virginia 115.0 109.6 114.4 113.0
27 Oklahoma St. 112.0 112.6 112.7 112.4
28 Arizona St. 114.7 109.4 113.2 112.4
29 Arizona 114.9 107.8 113.0 111.9
30 Mississippi St. 113.4 108.9 113.4 111.9
31 Michigan 112.8 108.9 112.1 111.3
32 Wisconsin 111.2 112.0 110.2 111.1
33 Florida 111.8 108.4 111.2 110.5
34 Missouri 111.4 108.5 110.5 110.1
35 Boise St. 112.2 106.7 111.5 110.1
36 Nebraska 110.9 108.3 110.5 109.9
37 North Carolina St. 109.3 111.4 108.3 109.7
38 Miami 109.0 109.9 109.4 109.4
39 BYU 108.9 107.0 110.3 108.7
40 Minnesota 109.3 107.5 109.1 108.6
41 Temple 107.2 109.4 108.5 108.4
42 Louisville 107.2 109.8 107.4 108.1
43 Texas Tech 111.0 101.6 110.8 107.8
44 Northwestern 106.8 107.8 106.8 107.1
45 Penn St. 105.7 107.8 105.9 106.5
46 Texas 107.1 105.8 106.6 106.5
47 Illinois 107.2 104.8 106.2 106.1
48 Memphis 105.2 105.1 106.7 105.7
49 South Carolina 107.3 103.6 105.8 105.6
50 Kentucky 106.3 102.9 105.6 104.9
51 Pittsburgh 103.7 105.8 104.9 104.8
52 Kansas St. 109.6 96.3 108.2 104.7
53 Colorado 105.8 101.5 105.1 104.1
54 Washington 103.7 101.9 104.1 103.2
55 Iowa 101.8 104.7 102.5 103.0
56 Duke 102.4 103.0 103.0 102.8
57 Cincinnati 101.8 102.9 102.8 102.5
58 Boston College 101.2 106.1 99.5 102.3
59 Virginia 103.0 100.1 102.5 101.9
60 Houston 97.7 105.8 100.4 101.3
61 Western Kentucky 100.9 98.5 102.0 100.5
62 Louisiana Tech 101.3 98.2 102.1 100.5
63 Navy 98.3 101.4 98.8 99.5
64 Toledo 99.7 97.7 100.6 99.3
65 Middle Tennessee 98.3 98.0 98.0 98.1
66 Purdue 98.8 98.2 96.8 97.9
67 Bowling Green 95.3 99.8 97.4 97.5
68 Wake Forest 95.5 100.2 94.5 96.7
69 Air Force 94.7 99.9 94.5 96.4
70 Rutgers 98.0 94.9 96.1 96.3
71 Washington St. 98.5 93.3 96.7 96.2
72 Marshall 95.8 95.6 96.4 95.9
73 Vanderbilt 98.2 92.2 97.1 95.8
74 San Diego St. 93.7 98.9 94.7 95.8
75 Syracuse 94.4 98.7 93.8 95.6
76 Georgia Southern 94.5 96.6 95.0 95.4
77 Utah St. 95.9 94.4 96.0 95.4
78 Indiana 94.8 96.4 94.6 95.3
79 Northern Illinois 94.2 96.8 94.6 95.2
80 Western Michigan 94.6 95.1 95.5 95.1
81 Colorado St. 96.3 93.8 94.8 95.0
82 Maryland 95.3 93.0 94.2 94.2
83 Iowa St. 95.7 92.4 94.6 94.2
84 Tulsa 91.5 97.4 92.9 93.9
85 Ohio 91.5 96.4 93.2 93.7
86 Appalachian St. 92.0 95.0 94.1 93.7
87 Hawaii 91.8 94.0 92.4 92.7
88 Nevada 91.4 95.3 90.9 92.5
89 Oregon St. 92.8 91.1 91.7 91.9
90 East Carolina 90.0 94.5 90.1 91.5
91 Central Florida 89.4 93.2 90.8 91.1
92 Florida International 89.3 92.1 91.2 90.9
93 San Jose St. 90.2 92.9 89.5 90.9
94 Arkansas St. 90.5 90.3 91.5 90.8
95 New Mexico 90.6 91.4 90.0 90.7
96 Fresno St. 88.1 95.1 87.4 90.2
97 South Florida 88.1 94.9 87.5 90.2
98 Rice 87.8 92.6 88.6 89.7
99 SMU 88.1 92.0 88.2 89.4
100 Massachusetts 87.5 91.1 89.1 89.2
101 Tulane 87.9 90.3 86.0 88.1
102 Buffalo 83.8 91.3 86.4 87.2
103 UL-Lafayette 85.3 89.4 85.7 86.8
104 Southern Mississippi 86.5 87.0 85.5 86.3
105 Ball St. 84.9 87.8 85.8 86.2
106 Akron 83.0 89.5 84.4 85.6
107 Central Michigan 83.0 88.9 84.9 85.6
108 Texas St. 83.8 87.6 83.5 85.0
109 Kent St. 83.2 86.0 83.9 84.4
110 Connecticut 81.8 87.9 82.0 83.9
111 Florida Atlantic 82.0 86.2 82.6 83.6
112 Old Dominion 80.7 88.0 79.8 82.8
113 UTEP 81.8 84.8 81.6 82.7
114 North Texas 79.9 86.4 80.4 82.2
115 South Alabama 77.9 85.7 79.7 81.1
116 Army 76.9 87.6 78.2 80.9
117 UL-Monroe 81.7 78.3 81.0 80.3
118 UNLV 79.2 81.6 79.9 80.2
119 Miami (O) 76.6 83.0 76.7 78.8
120 UT-San Antonio 77.2 80.7 78.3 78.7
121 Eastern Michigan 75.0 84.9 75.0 78.3
122 Wyoming 78.0 80.0 76.2 78.1
123 Kansas 78.9 72.6 76.6 76.0
124 Troy 75.3 75.0 77.0 75.8
125 Georgia St. 75.7 74.5 75.4 75.2
126 New Mexico St. 73.6 74.8 73.5 74.0
127 Idaho 70.6 79.1 72.1 73.9
128 Charlotte 69.0 71.0 68.5 69.5

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 1-0 3-0 107.2 109.4 108.5 108.4
Cincinnati 0-1 2-1 101.8 102.9 102.8 102.5
East Carolina 0-1 1-2 90.0 94.5 90.1 91.5
Central Florida 0-0 0-3 89.4 93.2 90.8 91.1
South Florida 0-0 1-2 88.1 94.9 87.5 90.2
Connecticut 0-0 2-1 81.8 87.9 82.0 83.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 0-0 3-0 105.2 105.1 106.7 105.7
Houston 0-0 2-0 97.7 105.8 100.4 101.3
Navy 1-0 2-0 98.3 101.4 98.8 99.5
Tulsa 0-0 2-1 91.5 97.4 92.9 93.9
SMU 0-0 1-2 88.1 92.0 88.2 89.4
Tulane 0-0 1-2 87.9 90.3 86.0 88.1
             
AAC Averages     93.9 97.9 94.6 95.5
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 1-0 3-0 115.3 116.5 115.2 115.7
Florida St. 1-0 3-0 114.9 115.3 113.6 114.6
North Carolina St. 0-0 3-0 109.3 111.4 108.3 109.7
Louisville 0-1 0-3 107.2 109.8 107.4 108.1
Boston College 0-1 2-1 101.2 106.1 99.5 102.3
Wake Forest 0-1 2-1 95.5 100.2 94.5 96.7
Syracuse 1-0 3-0 94.4 98.7 93.8 95.6
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Tech 0-0 2-1 123.0 115.0 122.6 120.2
Virginia Tech 0-0 2-1 115.4 111.8 115.8 114.3
North Carolina 0-0 2-1 113.7 113.7 113.3 113.6
Miami 0-0 3-0 109.0 109.9 109.4 109.4
Pittsburgh 0-0 2-1 103.7 105.8 104.9 104.8
Duke 0-0 2-1 102.4 103.0 103.0 102.8
Virginia 0-0 1-2 103.0 100.1 102.5 101.9
             
ACC Averages     107.7 108.4 107.4 107.8
             
Big 12 Conference
  Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
TCU 0-0 3-0 127.4 117.2 128.5 124.4
Baylor 0-0 2-0 123.7 119.8 124.2 122.6
Oklahoma 0-0 3-0 121.1 118.4 121.4 120.3
West Virginia 0-0 2-0 115.0 109.6 114.4 113.0
Oklahoma St. 0-0 3-0 112.0 112.6 112.7 112.4
Texas 0-0 1-2 107.1 105.8 106.6 106.5
Texas Tech 0-0 3-0 111.0 101.6 110.8 107.8
Kansas St. 0-0 3-0 109.6 96.3 108.2 104.7
Iowa St. 0-0 1-2 95.7 92.4 94.6 94.2
Kansas 0-0 0-2 78.9 72.6 76.6 76.0
             
Big 12 Averages     110.2 104.6 109.8 108.2
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 0-0 3-0 133.4 124.0 134.3 130.6
Michigan St. 0-0 3-0 121.2 115.3 121.1 119.2
Michigan 0-0 2-1 112.8 108.9 112.1 111.3
Penn St. 1-0 2-1 105.7 107.8 105.9 106.5
Rutgers 0-1 1-2 98.0 94.9 96.1 96.3
Indiana 0-0 3-0 94.8 96.4 94.6 95.3
Maryland 0-0 2-1 95.3 93.0 94.2 94.2
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 0-0 2-1 111.2 112.0 110.2 111.1
Nebraska 0-0 1-2 110.9 108.3 110.5 109.9
Minnesota 0-0 2-1 109.3 107.5 109.1 108.6
Northwestern 0-0 3-0 106.8 107.8 106.8 107.1
Illinois 0-0 2-1 107.2 104.8 106.2 106.1
Iowa 0-0 3-0 101.8 104.7 102.5 103.0
Purdue 0-0 1-2 98.8 98.2 96.8 97.9
             
Big Ten Averages     107.7 106.0 107.2 106.9
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 1-0 2-1 100.9 98.5 102.0 100.5
Middle Tennessee 1-0 2-1 98.3 98.0 98.0 98.1
Marshall 0-0 2-1 95.8 95.6 96.4 95.9
Florida International 0-0 2-1 89.3 92.1 91.2 90.9
Florida Atlantic 0-0 0-3 82.0 86.2 82.6 83.6
Old Dominion 0-0 2-1 80.7 88.0 79.8 82.8
Charlotte 0-1 2-1 69.0 71.0 68.5 69.5
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 0-1 1-2 101.3 98.2 102.1 100.5
Rice 1-0 2-1 87.8 92.6 88.6 89.7
Southern Mississippi 0-0 2-1 86.5 87.0 85.5 86.3
UTEP 0-0 1-2 81.8 84.8 81.6 82.7
North Texas 0-1 0-2 79.9 86.4 80.4 82.2
UT-San Antonio 0-0 0-3 77.2 80.7 78.3 78.7
             
CUSA Averages     87.0 89.2 87.3 87.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   3-0 123.4 119.4 123.9 122.2
BYU   2-1 108.9 107.0 110.3 108.7
Army   0-3 76.9 87.6 78.2 80.9
             
Independents Averages     103.1 104.7 104.1 104.0
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 0-0 1-2 95.3 99.8 97.4 97.5
Ohio 0-0 3-0 91.5 96.4 93.2 93.7
Massachusetts 0-0 0-2 87.5 91.1 89.1 89.2
Buffalo 0-0 2-1 83.8 91.3 86.4 87.2
Akron 0-0 1-2 83.0 89.5 84.4 85.6
Kent St. 0-0 1-2 83.2 86.0 83.9 84.4
Miami (O) 0-0 1-2 76.6 83.0 76.7 78.8
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 0-0 2-0 99.7 97.7 100.6 99.3
Northern Illinois 0-0 2-1 94.2 96.8 94.6 95.2
Western Michigan 0-0 1-2 94.6 95.1 95.5 95.1
Ball St. 1-0 2-1 84.9 87.8 85.8 86.2
Central Michigan 0-0 1-2 83.0 88.9 84.9 85.6
Eastern Michigan 0-1 1-2 75.0 84.9 75.0 78.3
             
MAC Averages     87.1 91.4 88.3 88.9
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 0-0 2-1 112.2 106.7 111.5 110.1
Air Force 1-0 2-1 94.7 99.9 94.5 96.4
Utah St. 0-0 1-2 95.9 94.4 96.0 95.4
Colorado St. 0-0 1-2 96.3 93.8 94.8 95.0
New Mexico 0-0 1-2 90.6 91.4 90.0 90.7
Wyoming 0-0 0-3 78.0 80.0 76.2 78.1
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 0-0 1-2 93.7 98.9 94.7 95.8
Hawaii 0-0 2-1 91.8 94.0 92.4 92.7
Nevada 0-0 1-2 91.4 95.3 90.9 92.5
San Jose St. 0-1 1-2 90.2 92.9 89.5 90.9
Fresno St. 0-0 1-2 88.1 95.1 87.4 90.2
UNLV 0-0 0-3 79.2 81.6 79.9 80.2
             
MWC Averages     91.8 93.7 91.5 92.3
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oregon 0-0 2-1 122.8 114.8 122.2 119.9
Stanford 1-0 2-1 118.4 117.2 118.6 118.1
California 0-0 3-0 118.1 113.1 118.6 116.6
Washington 0-0 2-1 103.7 101.9 104.1 103.2
Washington St. 0-0 2-1 98.5 93.3 96.7 96.2
Oregon St. 0-0 2-1 92.8 91.1 91.7 91.9
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 0-1 2-1 121.5 118.2 121.9 120.5
UCLA 0-0 3-0 122.6 116.1 120.5 119.7
Utah 0-0 3-0 117.8 112.1 117.0 115.6
Arizona St. 0-0 2-1 114.7 109.4 113.2 112.4
Arizona 0-0 3-0 114.9 107.8 113.0 111.9
Colorado 0-0 2-1 105.8 101.5 105.1 104.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     112.6 108.0 111.9 110.9
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 2-0 3-0 124.4 116.8 123.7 121.6
Tennessee 0-0 2-1 120.6 116.4 120.4 119.1
Florida 1-0 3-0 111.8 108.4 111.2 110.5
Missouri 0-0 3-0 111.4 108.5 110.5 110.1
South Carolina 0-2 1-2 107.3 103.6 105.8 105.6
Kentucky 1-1 2-1 106.3 102.9 105.6 104.9
Vanderbilt 0-1 1-2 98.2 92.2 97.1 95.8
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ole Miss 1-0 3-0 130.2 123.8 128.8 127.6
LSU 2-0 2-0 125.8 121.8 125.6 124.4
Alabama 0-1 2-1 125.0 123.3 124.6 124.3
Texas A&M 0-0 3-0 120.4 118.6 119.4 119.5
Auburn 0-1 2-1 116.9 114.9 115.9 115.9
Arkansas 0-0 1-2 117.4 111.1 116.3 114.9
Mississippi St. 0-1 2-1 113.4 108.9 113.4 111.9
             
SEC Averages     116.4 112.2 115.6 114.7
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Southern 0-0 2-1 94.5 96.6 95.0 95.4
Appalachian St. 0-0 1-1 92.0 95.0 94.1 93.7
Arkansas St. 0-0 1-2 90.5 90.3 91.5 90.8
UL-Lafayette 0-0 1-1 85.3 89.4 85.7 86.8
Texas St. 0-0 1-2 83.8 87.6 83.5 85.0
South Alabama 0-0 2-1 77.9 85.7 79.7 81.1
UL-Monroe 0-0 1-1 81.7 78.3 81.0 80.3
Troy 0-0 1-2 75.3 75.0 77.0 75.8
Georgia St. 1-0 1-2 75.7 74.5 75.4 75.2
New Mexico St. 0-1 0-3 73.6 74.8 73.5 74.0
Idaho 0-0 1-2 70.6 79.1 72.1 73.9
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.9 84.2 82.6 82.9
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 116.4 112.2 115.6 114.7
2 Pac-12 112.6 108.0 111.9 110.9
3 Big 12 110.2 104.6 109.8 108.2
4 ACC 107.7 108.4 107.4 107.8
5 Big Ten 107.7 106.0 107.2 106.9
6 Independents 103.1 104.7 104.1 104.0
7 AAC 93.9 97.9 94.6 95.5
8 MWC 91.8 93.7 91.5 92.3
9 MAC 87.1 91.4 88.3 88.9
10 CUSA 87.0 89.2 87.3 87.8
11 Sun Belt 81.9 84.2 82.6 82.9

 

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Boise St. 112.2 106.7 111.5 110.1
2 BYU 108.9 107.0 110.3 108.7
3 Temple 107.2 109.4 108.5 108.4
4 Memphis 105.2 105.1 106.7 105.7
5 Cincinnati 101.8 102.9 102.8 102.5
6 Houston 97.7 105.8 100.4 101.3
7 Western Kentucky 100.9 98.5 102.0 100.5
8 Louisiana Tech 101.3 98.2 102.1 100.5
9 Navy 98.3 101.4 98.8 99.5
10 Toledo 99.7 97.7 100.6 99.3

 

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
10 Wake Forest 95.5 100.2 94.5 96.7
9 Rutgers 98.0 94.9 96.1 96.3
8 Washington St. 98.5 93.3 96.7 96.2
7 Vanderbilt 98.2 92.2 97.1 95.8
6 Syracuse 94.4 98.7 93.8 95.6
5 Indiana 94.8 96.4 94.6 95.3
4 Maryland 95.3 93.0 94.2 94.2
3 Iowa St. 95.7 92.4 94.6 94.2
2 Oregon St. 92.8 91.1 91.7 91.9
1 Kansas 78.9 72.6 76.6 76.0

 

FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 97.1
2 South Dakota St. 94.1
3 North Dakota St. 92.3
4 Coastal Carolina 89.5
5 Chattanooga 89.0
6 Harvard 88.6
7 Illinois St. 88.2
8 Northern Iowa 88.1
9 Portland St. 87.8
10 James Madison 87.5

 

PiRate Speculation on Playoff Teams

NCAA Playoffs
1 Ohio St.
2 Ole Miss
3 TCU
4 Notre Dame

 

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Thursday, September 24        
Memphis Cincinnati 6.4 5.2 6.9
         
Friday, September 25   PiRate  Mean  Bias
Virginia Boise St. -5.7 -3.1 -5.5
Oregon St. Stanford -22.6 -23.1 -23.9
         
Saturday, September 26   PiRate  Mean  Bias
Connecticut Navy -14.0 -11.0 -14.3
Duke Georgia Tech -18.1 -9.5 -17.1
East Carolina Virginia Tech -22.4 -14.3 -22.7
Michigan BYU 6.9 4.9 4.8
Michigan St. Central Michigan 40.2 28.4 38.2
Purdue Bowling Green 6.0 0.9 1.9
Rutgers Kansas 21.6 20.8 22.0
South Carolina Central Florida 20.9 13.4 18.0
Syracuse LSU -28.4 -20.1 -28.8
Nebraska Southern Miss. 27.4 24.3 28.0
Wake Forest Indiana 3.2 6.3 2.4
Boston College Northern Illinois 10.0 12.3 7.9
Arkansas (Arlington, TX) Texas A&M -3.0 -7.5 -3.1
Louisiana Tech Florida Int’l 15.0 9.1 13.9
West Virginia Maryland 21.7 18.6 22.2
Baylor Rice 37.9 29.2 37.6
Arizona UCLA -4.7 -5.3 -4.5
Arizona St. USC -3.8 -5.8 -5.7
Oregon Utah 8.0 5.7 8.2
Wyoming New Mexico -10.1 -8.9 -11.3
Florida Tennessee -5.8 -5.0 -6.2
Houston Texas St. 16.4 20.7 19.4
Notre Dame Massachusetts 38.9 31.3 37.8
Ohio St. Western Michigan 41.8 31.9 41.8
Penn St. San Diego St. 16.0 12.9 15.2
Iowa North Texas 24.9 21.3 25.1
Minnesota Ohio U 20.8 14.1 18.9
Texas Oklahoma St. -1.9 -3.8 -3.1
Old Dominion Appalachian St. -8.8 -4.5 -11.8
Western Kentucky Miami (O) 26.8 18.0 27.8
Buffalo Nevada -3.6 0.0 -0.5
Kent St. Marshall -10.1 -7.1 -10.0
Alabama UL-Monroe 46.3 48.0 46.6
Illinois Middle Tennessee 11.9 9.8 11.2
Texas Tech TCU -13.4 -12.6 -14.7
Washington California -11.4 -8.2 -11.5
Eastern Michigan Army 0.6 -0.2 -0.7
Ole Miss Vanderbilt 35.0 34.6 34.7
Charlotte Florida Atlantic -10.5 -12.7 -11.6
UT-San Antonio Colorado St. -16.6 -10.6 -14.3
UL-Lafayette Akron 5.3 1.9 4.3
Toledo Arkansas St. 12.2 10.4 12.1
Kentucky Missouri -2.1 -2.6 -1.9
Auburn Mississippi St. 6.5 9.0 5.5
Northwestern Ball St. 24.4 22.5 23.5
South Alabama North Carolina St. -28.4 -22.7 -25.6
Wisconsin Hawaii 23.4 22.0 21.8
Idaho Georgia Southern -20.9 -14.5 -19.9
San Jose St. Fresno St. 4.6 0.3 0.6
         
         
FBS vs. FCS Week 4 PiRate    
Georgia Southern U 50    
North Carolina Delaware 35    
Colorado Nicholls St. 43    
Louisville Samford 23    
SMU James Madison 7    
UTEP Incarnate Word 18    
UNLV Idaho St. 15    

 

December 8, 2014

2014-15 Computer Simulated Playoffs

Filed under: 2014 Simulated NCAA Playoffs — Tags: , , , — piratings @ 9:31 am

The Road To Simper Bowl VIII

With the dawning of the inaugural NCAA College Football Playoff, the PiRates figured the Simper Bowl would cease to exist now that the title would be more fair. However, the football gods gave us the utmost controversy this year, as six teams definitely deserved spots in the playoffs.

Imagine if the NFL chose not to include the NFC East champion (Philadelphia or Dallas), while taking Detroit due to a big week 17 win over Green Bay? The NFL is the king of all sports because there is consistency. Maybe too many teams qualify for the playoffs, but the qualification for making the playoffs is clear and plain to see. If you win your division, you are one of the top four seeds, and if you have one of the next two best records in your conference (with rules to break ties), you are one of the final two seeds.

Baylor and TCU are like 12-4 teams in the NFL that finished tied for first in a division and then were not allowed in the playoffs. One of these teams might even receive a first round bye and have home field advantage if this were the NFL.

The PiRate Ratings have a website at http://www.piratings.webs.com, where fans can contact us. We usually receive inquiries about the processes we use in constructing our ratings, why our home field advantage is different for every game played, as well as questions about why our format is Green and Gold (members of the family are “owners” of the Green Bay Packers).

We were surprised this week when 14 of you sent us inquiries asking if we would bring back our computer simulation of the college playoffs like in past years. We usually receive 14 contacts from you in one month, so when 14 asked in a three-day period, we knew we had to bring the simulation back.

We saw this travesty being a real possibility just last season, when if the four-team playoff had been in effect, there would have been many teams feeling jilted from their exclusion from the Final Four. In 2013, Florida State, Auburn, and Alabama were definitely the top three teams, but number four was even more cluttered with Baylor, Michigan St., Stanford, Ohio St., Missouri, South Carolina, and Oregon all having legitimate claims to that fourth slot. That meant 10 teams were deserving of making the playoffs. Additionally, Louisville, still a member of the AAC, was in the Top 16 and thus also deserving of a playoff spot, making 11 teams total that deserved a chance to play for the title. This is why we believe the playoffs need to be 12 teams.

So, welcome to the Road to Simper Bowl VIII. In case you are new to this, we started this 12-team simulation in 2007. It has always been our belief that every conference champion of a major conference should automatically qualify for an NCAA Playoff berth. Since there are now five major conferences, that means five teams should receive automatic bids. This hints at an eight-team playoff, but for two reasons, we do not like the idea of having an eight-team playoff. First, in many years, there are teams just outside the top eight that are worthy of making the playoffs. We love history. In 1976, Texas A&M did not finish the regular season among the Top Eight. Yet, our ratings showed the Aggies to be the number one team in the nation by December, even though their record was 9-2. Our ratings showed the Aggies were four points better than actual champion Pittsburgh and more than a touchdown better than the Georgia team Pittsburgh faced in the Sugar Bowl.

The second reason we do not like an eight-team format is we believe the highest-rated teams deserve some reward in the form of a first-round bye (like the NFL).

This is why we have stuck with our 12-team format. While in some years, the ninth best team has an argument that they belong in an eight-team playoff, rarely ever has the number 13 team had any realistic grounds to complain about being left out of a 12-team playoff. This is the equivalent of the first four out of the NCAA Basketball Tournament. Yes, a 19-14 team from the Big Ten may be better than the champion of 15 other mid and low-majors, but they only have themselves to blame for going 19-14. This team is not a contender for the Final Four.

Here is our format for our 12-team simulated playoffs. We have adjusted it a little bit from past seasons.

1. This is a 12-team tournament, using home fields for the first two rounds to get from 12 to 8 to 4, and then using the current bowls to play the Final Four and Championship.

2. The champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 receive automatic bids, but not any preference toward receiving byes.

3. The champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sunbelt receive automatic bids if any finish in the top 16 of the Power Rankings, which replaces the BCS. Thus, theoretically, all five of these conferences could field a team in the same season.
What do we use for “Power Rankings?” The PiRate Ratings are part of the Massey Comparison Rankings, a group of the most accurate computer rankings in the nation. For this purpose, we will use the Massey Comparison Rankings as our equivalent of basketball’s RPI. We’d prefer some tiebreaker system to mechanically determine the playoff teams, but for now, that is not possible.

4. We then select the two to seven highest PR-ranked teams (to fill the bracket to make 12 total) not automatically selected and give them berths in the tournament.

5. We seed the teams by Power Ranking from 1-12. The top 4 teams receive a first round bye as a reward for being one of the top four, while seeds 5-12 face off in the first round.
This year, none of the champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, Mountain West, or Sunbelt finished in the Top 16. Boise State just missed, coming in at 19. Thus, with five automatic bids, we must invite the next seven highest-rated teams to fill out our 12-team bracket.

Here are the Dandy Dozen teams, seeded for 2014-15.

1. Alabama 12-1
2. Oregon 12-1
3. TCU 11-1
4. Ohio St. 12-1
5. Baylor 11-1
6. Florida St. 13-0
7. Ole Miss 9-3
8. Mississippi St. 10-2
9. Michigan St. 10-2
10. Georgia 9-3
11. Auburn 8-4
12. Kansas St. 9-3

And here is the bracket for this year’s tournament.

Opening Round
Game 1: #12 Kansas State at #5 Baylor
Game 2: #11 Auburn at #6 Florida St.
Game 3: #10 Georgia at #7 Ole Miss
Game 4: #9 Michigan St. at #8 Mississippi St.

Quarterfinal Round
Game 5: Game 4 Winner (Michigan St./Mississippi St.) at #1 Alabama.
Game 6: Game 3 Winner (Georgia/Ole Miss) at #2 Oregon
Game 7: Game 2 Winner (Auburn/Florida St.) at #3 T C U
Game 8: Game 1 Winner (Kansas St./Baylor) at #4 Ohio St.

Semifinals
Sugar Bowl: Game 5 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner
Rose Bowl: Game 6 Winner vs. Game 7 Winner

CHAMPIONSHIP
Arlington, TX: Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Rose Bowl Winner

For this computer simulation, games were simulated on a simulator located on a major university campus.
Process: We use a simulation program at a major university computer lab. We will simulate each game just one time, because if we run 100 or 1000 simulations, there will be no chances for upsets, and the top seeds will win every game. By simulating each game just one time, we produce the same chance that each team has to win, be it expected or an upset. If one team has a 75% chance of winning, then the underdog has less than 1% chance of winning if the game is simulated 100 times, but it has a 25% chance of winning if the game is simulated just once.

Home Field advantage is factored into all games, even those played at neutral sites. Alabama never plays a neutral site game, as the Crimson Nation shows up in mass numbers even 2,000 miles away from home.

The simulator uses statistical data much in the same way as popular sports games such as “Strat-O-Matic” and “Paydirt” use to make player and team cards and then simulates a game based on these statistics. Plays are called by artificial intelligence, using tendencies the actual teams use. Generically, these plays are:

Running Plays
1. Power inside
2. Quick inside
3. Power off-tackle
4. Tackle trap
5. Power wide
6. Quick wide
7. Misdirection
8. Draw

Passing Plays
9. Screen
10. Short Play-Action
11. Medium Play-Action
12. Long Play-Action
13. Short Flood
14. Medium Flood
15. Middle Routes
16. Sideline Routes
17. Deep Zone Route
18. Long Bomb

Specialty Plays
19. QB Sneak
20. Trick Play
21. Goalline Fade
22. QB Kneel Down

All forms of special teams are included in this simulation program, and the program generates full stats.

Schedule

Round One Games will be published on Friday, December 12
Round Two Games will be published in Tuesday, December 16
The Semifinal Round will be published on Friday, December 19
The Championship Round will be published on Tuesday, December 23

November 4, 2013

PiRate Ratings: College Football–November 5-9, 2013

Conference Reports

AMERICAN ATHLETIC

Central Florida hosts Houston this week, and if the Knights get by the Cougars, the conference championship is almost theirs.  UCF closes with Temple, Rutgers, South Florida, and SMU.  Rutgers is the only team in that bunch capable of pulling off the upset, but that game is in Orlando.

 

Louisville has two difficult games remaining—hosting Houston on November 16 and finishing the regular season at Cincinnati on Thursday, December 5.  The Cardinals need Houston to beat UCF, and then they would have to beat Houston to earn the BCS Bowl bid.

 

Houston has the toughest job, as the Cougars must still play at UCF and Louisville in the next two Saturdays.  If they can pull off the near miracle, they would then have to face Cincinnati at home the following week  before closing with rival SMU.

 

Cincinnati and SMU are technically still in the conference race, and the two teams square off in the Queen City of Ohio this weekend.  For UC to win the league, the Bearcats must win out against SMU, Rutgers, Houston, and Louisville and then hope UCF loses a game to South Florida or Temple, which could lower their BCS ranking below the Bearcats.  SMU must win out as well, and their road is much tougher—practically impossible, as they would have to pass Louisville in the BCS rankings.

 

1

BCS (Sugar) Central Florida

2

Russell Athletic Louisville

3

Belk Houston

4

Pinstripe Rutgers

5

BBVA Compass Cincinnati

6

Beef O’Brady’s No Team Available

 

ATLANTIC COAST

In the Atlantic Division, Florida St. is a virtual lock to be the division title winner, as the Seminoles would have to lose to both Wake Forest and Syracuse to fall to second place.  The Seminoles just moved back to number two in the BCS rankings, but they are still the odd-team out as of today.  A schedule that includes Idaho and Florida besides the two ACC teams is not strong enough to stay ahead of Oregon should the Ducks win out as well.

Clemson is still alive for a BCS at-large bid, but the Tigers will have to root heavily for Northern Illinois and Fresno St. to both lose.  If one of the non-automatic qualifying teams crashes the party, Clemson’s invitation will never arrived.

 

The remainder of the Atlantic Division is fighting it out for Bowl Eligibility.  Maryland needs just one more win, and they will certainly get that.  Syracuse and Boston College both need two more wins, and the chances are at least 50-50 that they will both succeed and better than 70% that at least one will.

 

Wake Forest and North Carolina St. both have five losses, and they are on the outside looking in. Chances are better than 67% that both will miss out.

 

There is still a race to be won in the Coastal Division.  Miami has three tough games remaining in the four yet to be played.  They host a wounded Virginia Tech team this week, go to the surprising Duke Blue Devils the following week, and then after an easy one against Virginia, the “U” closes at Pittsburgh on Black Friday, where the temperature could be 50 degrees colder than home.

 

Duke controls their own destiny, and for the Blue Devils to win out, they will have to beat North Carolina St., Miami, Wake Forest, and North Carolina, the latter two on the road. 

 

Virginia Tech is still very much alive even though the Hokies have lost their last two.  If they best Miami, it will take home wins over Maryland and Virginia and at least one loss by Duke to give them the division flag.

 

Georgia Tech has a week off to prepare for a game at Clemson.  The Yellow Jackets are already bowl eligible, but they too need one more win to guarantee a bowl bid.  It will come at home against Alabama A&M on November 23.

 

North Carolina and Pittsburgh both have some work to do to become bowl eligible.  The Tar Heels dug themselves into a pit with a 1-5 start, but UNC has won their last two and gets Virginia at home this week.  Games at Pitt and home against Old Dominion and Duke are all winnable, and this team could close out the regular season on a six-game winning streak.

 

Pittsburgh needs to split their final four games to finish with six wins, and the Panthers have a tough job with Notre Dame, North Carolina, Syracuse, and Miami.  Even with six wins, there is no guarantee the Panthers will go bowling.

 

1

BCS (Orange) Florida St.

2

Chick-fil-A Clemson

3

Russell Athletic Miami

4

Sun Virginia Tech

5

Belk Maryland

6

Music City Georgia Tech

7

Advocare V100 Duke

8

Military Syracuse
     
  North Carolina 6-wins and out
  Pittsburgh 6-wins and out

 

BIG 12

The way we see it, this league is going to miss out thrice this year.  First, a 12-0 Baylor will have very little chance, make that almost no chance, of making the National Championship Game.  Second, if Baylor goes 12-0, the Bears could easily be the only league team to play in a BCS Bowl thanks to the likelihood that there will be a non-automatic qualifier breaking in line.  Third, the league champion, be it Baylor or someone else will almost assuredly be stuck playing either Fresno St. or Northern Illinois should one qualify.

 

Baylor winning the league is still not cut and dry.  The Bears have really only played one above average team, and they struggled to defeat Kansas St.  BU closes with all their tough games, starting this Thursday night at home against Oklahoma.  They follow up that game with Texas Tech at Cowboys Stadium, Oklahoma St. on the road, TCU on the road, and Texas at home.

 

Coach Mack Brown took a lot of heat and appears to still be on the hot seat in Austin, but Texas still has a shot at the conference championship.  It won’t be easy, as the Longhorns’ closing schedule is rough as well.  After a tricky road trip to West Virginia this weekend, they close with Oklahoma St., Texas Tech, and Baylor.

 

Oklahoma St. and Oklahoma are still alive with one conference loss apiece.  After an easy one at home with Kansas this weekend, OSU plays at Texas and then hosts Baylor in back-to-back weeks.  They get a week off to prepare for the home finale against the Sooners.

 

Oklahoma has two other tough road games before the Oklahoma St. finale in Stillwater.  The Sooners play at Baylor and Kansas St. with a home breather against Iowa St. sandwiched in between.

 

Texas Tech has fallen out of contention with consecutive losses, and the Red Raiders will fight it out with Kansas St. for bowl pecking order.

 

West Virginia’s win at TCU has put the Mountaineers back on the plus 50% of bowl eligibility chance rating.  WVU still has games with the two conference lightweights, Kansas and Iowa St., and the Mountaineers need two wins to reach six.

 

1

BCS (Fiesta) Baylor

2

Cotton Oklahoma St.

3

Alamo Texas

4

Buffalo Wild Wings Oklahoma

5

Holiday Texas Tech

6

Texas Kansas St.

7

Pinstripe West Virginia

 

BIG TEN

Ohio St. can win the rest of their games 100-0, and the Buckeyes will still need two of the three teams ahead of them in the BCS standings to lose.  A non-conference schedule of Buffalo, San Diego St., California, and Florida A&M did not give the Big Ten favorites a fighting chance.  The Big Ten is not strong enough to allow OSU to play that schedule and jump ahead of the Pac-12, SEC, and even ACC.  It is debatable whether the Buckeyes can stay ahead of Baylor if the Bears run the table.

 

This week, we have even made a change in our conference champion prediction.  We now believe Michigan St. has the Legends Division title secured, and this week, we are predicting the Spartans to defend the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game.

 

Wisconsin has a trap game this week with BYU.  If the Badgers win this one, they have an excellent shot of winning out and finishing 10-2, but UW would need losses from Ohio St. and Michigan St. to jump into the BCS at-large picture.

 

The remaining bowl hopefuls are all in the Legends Division.  Michigan, Nebraska, and Minnesota are already in as bowl eligible teams.  Iowa needs one more win and should get that this week at Purdue. 

 

Northwestern, after starting 4-0, has lost five in a row, and it appears as though the Wildcats are on the outside, looking in.  NU must beat one of the Michigan teams as well as Illinois on the road.

 

1

BCS (Rose) Michigan St.

2

BCS (Orange) Ohio St.

3

Capital One Wisconsin

4

Outback Michigan

5

Gator Minnesota

6

Buffalo Wild Wings Nebraska

7

Texas Iowa

8

Heart of Dallas No Team Available

9

Little Caesar’s Pizza No Team Available

 

CONFERENCE USA

The picture became much clearer this week in one division, while the top two in the other appear to be heading for a big season-ending showdown.

 

North Texas defeated Rice, while Tulane lost to an emotionally charged Florida Atlantic team.  The Mean Green will win the West Division is they defeat UTEP, UTSA, and Tulsa, while Tulane loses one more game.  The Green Wave must still play at Rice.

 

Rice can only win the division if North Texas loses, and the Owls run the table.

 

In the East, Marshall and East Carolina appear to be headed to a big finish in Huntington on Black Friday.  Middle Tennessee is still mathematically alive.  For the Blue Raiders to win the division, they must win out over FIU, Southern Miss, and UTEP, while Marshall loses before beating ECU, who must also lose another conference game.

 

1

Liberty Marshall

2

Heart of Dallas North Texas

3

Military East Carolina

4

Beef O’Brady’s Middle Tennessee

5

Hawaii Rice

6

New Orleans Tulane

 

INDEPENDENTS

This one is now cut and dry.  BYU is bowl eligible and will play in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, regardless of what happens the rest of the way.

 

Notre Dame is bowl eligible and will play in a bowl that needs an at-large team.  The Fighting Irish have an infinitesimal shot at moving into a BCS at-large bowl.

 

Navy is 4-4 with games remaining against Hawaii, South Alabama, San Jose St., and Army.  The Middies should win at least twice and earn their trip to the Armed Forced Bowl.

 

Army is 3-6 and must win out against Western Kentucky, Hawaii, and Navy.  The Black Knights should consider the road game in Honolulu as their bowl, because it does not look likely for a 3-0 finish after losing to lowly Air Force.  Coach Rich Ellerson will most likely be let go if Army loses to Navy.

 

Notre Dame Poinsettia (at-large)
B Y U Kraft Fight Hunger
Navy Armed Forces

 

MID-AMERICAN

This is the week where the MAC starts playing half its schedule on the weeknights.  There are three big midweek games this week involving four contenders for the conference championship.

 

Tuesday night, Bowling Green plays at Miami of Ohio in what must be a win for the Falcons if they are to stay in the East Division race.

 

Also Tuesday night, Buffalo, 4-0 in league play, hosts Ohio, 3-1 and tied with BGU in league play.  If the Bulls win, the Bobcats are probably out of the division race and will fall onto the bowl bubble, where they will need to earn an at-large bowl bid.

 

On Wednesday, Ball St. hosts a so-so Central Michigan team badly in need of an upset win to have a chance at a bowl.  The Cardinals are tied with Northern Illinois at 5-0 in league play, with Toledo one game back but with a home game remaining against NIU.

 

If Northern Illinois runs the table and finishes 13-0, the Huskies will still need for Fresno St. to lose a game to make it to a second consecutive BCS Bowl game.  No 13-0 team in the BCS era has failed to finish in the top 12 of the final regular season standings, and NIU (or Fresno St.) only needs to finish in the top 16 if there is an automatic qualifier ranked below them (as are all the contenders in the AAC).  Should both NIU and FSU finish undefeated, we believe the Huskies could be sent to Las Vegas in a deal to replace FSU and play in a better bowl than the GoDaddy.com bowl.

 

1

BCS at-large (Fiesta) Northern Illinois

2

GoDaddy.com Ball St.

3

Little Caesar’s Pizza Toledo

4

Famous Idaho Potato Buffalo

5

Advocare V100 * Bowling Green

6

Heart of Dallas * Ohio
     

*

At-large bid  
  Central Michigan 6 Wins and Out

 

MOUNTAIN WEST

Fresno St. has moved two spots ahead of Northern Illinois, and the Bulldogs’ schedule should guarantee that if they ran the table,  they would stay ahead of an undefeated NIU team.

 

However, the MWC is a tough league in which to run the table.  In order to get to 12-0 (one game cancelled), the Bulldogs will have to win at Wyoming this Saturday in what has to be a major trap game; The Cowboys had an extra week to prepare, and they need a big upset to have any chance at bowl eligibility.  Should FSU survive this ambush in Laramie, they have a Black Friday game at San Jose St.  If 11-0 in the MWC Championship, they would then have to defeat Boise St. for a second time or Utah St.  Boise lost by a point at Fresno in September, and we cannot see FSU beating the Broncos twice in the same season.

 

There are a host of teams competing for the bowl spots past FSU, Boise St., Utah St., and San Jose St.  UNLV needs just one win to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2003 (last bowl in 2000).  The Rebels have three shots and must beat either Utah St., Air Force, or San Diego St.

 

As for San Diego St., the Aztecs need two wins and will have to beat Hawaii and somebody else.  The November 30 game at UNLV could very well be a bowl elimination game.

 

Colorado St. must win seven games, because they play 13 regular season games.  The Rams must finish 3-1.  Their schedule includes home games with Nevada and Air Force and road games at New Mexico and Utah St.  Coach Jim McElwain’s team has a shot.

 

1

Las Vegas Boise St.

2

Poinsettia Fresno St.

3

Armed Forces San Jose St.

4

New Mexico Utah St.

5

Hawaii U N L V

6

Famous Idaho Potato Colorado St.

 

PAC-12

The conference game of the year takes place Thursday in Palo Alto, as Stanford hosts Oregon.  If the Ducks win, they still must defeat Arizona in Tucson and any of three possible South Division contenders in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

 

If Stanford wins, the Cardinal still must win at USC and defeat rival Cal to win the North.

 

As long as Stanford does not lose to Cal or Notre Dame, the Cardinal have an excellent shot at going to the Rose Bowl if they lose to Oregon.

 

As for the rest of the league, it is still quite jumbled, especially in the South Division.

 

Currently, Arizona St. is the hot team in the South.  The Sun Devils are a game ahead of UCLA, Arizona, and USC.  UCLA hosts ASU on November 23, and the winner of that game should emerge as the division winner.  However don’t dismiss USC.  The Trojans have their swagger back, and they could catch Stanford at the right time when the Cardinal come to the Coliseum following the Oregon game.

 

Arizona finishes with Oregon and Arizona St., and it is hard to see the Wildcats winning both.

 

Utah is 4-4, and the Utes still must play Oregon and Arizona St.  They can get to six wins by topping Washington St. and Colorado, but six wins may keep them home.

 

In addition to the big two in the North, Washington and Oregon St. are competing for third place.  The two play in Corvallis on November 23, and it could be for a bowl position.  The Beavers have a brutal closing schedule that includes road games against Arizona St. and Oregon, and losing to UW could be their bowl demise.

 

1

BCS (National Champ.) Oregon

2

BCS (Rose) Stanford

3

Alamo Arizona St.

4

Holiday U S C

5

Sun U C L A

6

Las Vegas Washington

7

Kraft Fight Hunger Arizona

8

New Mexico Oregon St.
     
  Utah 6 wins and out

 

SOUTHEASTERN

It is possible that Alabama could lose a game, against LSU, Auburn, or the SEC East Division winner in the conference title game, but this Alabama team looks as strong as the 1995 Nebraska team. 

 

Auburn was picked down at the bottom of the West in the preseason, but the Tigers are still mathematically alive in the West.  If they beat Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama, they will win the division; they won’t.

 

LSU and Texas A&M are fighting for a possible BCS at-large bid, but it will take a 10-2 record to do so, and both are 7-2 with three games to go.  LSU would have to upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa this week.  The Tigers and Aggies play in Baton Rouge on November 23.  A&M finishes at Missouri a week later. 

 

Ole Miss will be the fourth team out of the West to go bowling, but Mississippi St. appears to be out of the picture at 4-4 with games yet to be played against Texas A&M, Alabama, and Ole Miss.  Coach Dan Mullen turned down opportunities to coach at bigger schools after the 2010 team beat Michigan 52-14 in the Gator Bowl.  He chose to stay in Starkville, and his reward might be unemployment in 2014.

 

In the East, Missouri is still in the driver’s seat with a 4-1 conference mark.  However, the Tigers have tricky games remaining against Ole Miss in Oxford and Texas A&M at home.

 

If Missouri finishes 6-2, then it will matter who the other loss came against in a 3-way tie with two loss Georgia and South Carolina.  If the loss is to Kentucky this week, then the Tigers are in trouble.  If the loss comes against Ole Miss or Texas A&M, then they still win the tiebreaker.

 

If Missouri and South Carolina finish in a two-way tie, then the Gamecocks win the East.  Georgia needs Missouri to lose to Kentucky or two lose twice before they have a chance to return to Atlanta.  Of course, the Bulldogs still have to play at Auburn.

 

In the rare event that teams finish tied for first at 5-3, Florida re-enters the equation.  There are too many possibilities yet to play out, but most of them will be eliminated if Missouri takes care of business in Lexington.

 

As for the rest of the East, the Gators are not yet bowl eligible.  At 4-4, Florida has two tough games on their schedule at South Carolina and at home against Florida St.  Additionally, they still have a difficult game at home against Vanderbilt.  6-6 is probable.

 

Vanderbilt is 4-4 with four to play.  They have games against less than mediocre Kentucky and Wake Forest, as well as winnable games at Florida and Tennessee, so the Commodores have a high probability of making a third consecutive bowl appearance.

 

Tennessee is in a very familiar situation at 4-5 with three games to go.  The Volunteers have been crippled with an injury to starting quarterback Justin Worley as well as backup Nathan Peterman.  Worley could be back for the final two games, and the Vols will have to win them both, at home against Vanderbilt and at Kentucky.

 

1

BCS (National Champ.) Alabama

2

BCS (Sugar) Auburn

3

Capital One Missouri

4

Outback Texas A&M

5

Cotton South Carolina

6

Chick-fil-A L S U

7

Gator Georgia

8

Music City Ole Miss

9

Liberty Florida

10

BBVA Compass Vanderbilt

11

Advocare V100 No Team Available

 

SUNBELT

The road to the SBC title runs through the Pelican State this year, as the UL-Lafayette and UL-Monroe winner will take the crown with the loser getting the second bowl spot.

 

Arkansas St., Texas St., Troy, and Western Kentucky still have shots to make a bowl, but as this league did last year to Middle Tennessee, expect Western Kentucky to get the shaft if there are extra bowl eligible teams.  The Hilltoppers are leaving the league in 2014.

 

1

New Orleans UL-Lafayette

2

GoDaddy.com UL-Monroe

3

Little Caesar’s * Texas St.

4

Beef O’Brady’s * Western Kentucky
     
  Arkansas St. 6 wins and out
  Troy 6 wins and out

 

PiRate Ratings For November 4, 2013

PiRate Regular

1

Alabama

137.1

2

Oregon

135.6

3

Florida St.

131.8

4

Baylor

128.2

5

Ohio St.

128.2

6

Stanford

126.0

7

Arizona St.

124.4

8

L S U

123.0

9

Missouri

122.9

10

Texas A&M

122.0

11

Oklahoma St.

120.9

12

Wisconsin

120.4

13

Clemson

120.2

14

Ole Miss

120.0

15

Washington

119.7

16

South Carolina

119.6

17

Michigan St.

118.9

18

Texas

118.8

19

U C L A

116.5

20

Oregon St.

116.0

21

Oklahoma

115.8

22

Auburn

115.7

23

Louisville

115.5

24

Georgia

115.4

25

Arizona

115.3

26

Miami

115.2

27

Florida

115.2

28

U S C

115.1

29

B Y U

114.8

30

Kansas St.

112.9

31

Michigan

112.3

32

Nebraska

112.3

33

Notre Dame

112.2

34

Georgia Tech

112.1

35

Texas Tech

110.0

36

Central Florida

108.9

37

Northwestern

108.6

38

Virginia Tech

108.1

39

Utah

108.0

40

T C U

106.7

41

Mississippi St.

106.3

42

Iowa

106.0

43

North Carolina

105.9

44

Utah St.

105.8

45

Minnesota

105.7

46

Vanderbilt

105.6

47

Boise St.

105.2

48

Tennessee

104.7

49

Cincinnati

104.5

50

Penn St.

104.5

51

Fresno St.

104.1

52

Indiana

104.0

53

Northern Illinois

103.3

54

East Carolina

103.0

55

Duke

102.4

56

West Virginia

102.2

57

Boston College

101.9

58

Washington St.

101.9

59

Houston

101.7

60

Ball St.

101.1

61

Toledo

100.4

62

Syracuse

99.8

63

Bowling Green

99.8

64

Wake Forest

99.8

65

Pittsburgh

99.4

66

Kentucky

99.4

67

North Texas

98.5

68

Marshall

98.3

69

Buffalo

97.8

70

Illinois

97.7

71

San Jose St.

97.0

72

Rice

96.2

73

Louisiana–Lafayette

96.2

74

Rutgers

95.9

75

Maryland

95.9

76

Navy

95.5

77

Colorado St.

95.5

78

Arkansas

95.1

79

Ohio

94.7

80

S M U

94.2

81

Iowa St.

93.0

82

California

92.9

83

Kansas

92.6

84

San Diego St.

92.5

85

North Carolina St.

91.6

86

Arkansas St.

90.8

87

U T S A

90.6

88

Memphis

90.2

89

Virginia

90.0

90

Western Kentucky

89.5

91

Colorado

89.1

92

Florida Atlantic

89.0

93

Louisiana–Monroe

88.3

94

Tulsa

88.1

95

Purdue

88.0

96

South Florida

87.8

97

Wyoming

87.7

98

South Alabama

87.4

99

Tulane

87.3

100

Temple

87.1

101

Nevada

86.7

102

U N L V

86.5

103

Middle Tennessee

86.1

104

Kent St.

86.0

105

Connecticut

83.5

106

Akron

83.3

107

Central Michigan

82.8

108

Hawaii

82.8

109

Troy

82.5

110

Texas St.

82.3

111

Army

82.1

112

U A B

81.4

113

Louisiana Tech

80.8

114

New Mexico

80.8

115

Air Force

79.8

116

U T E P

79.0

117

Western Michigan

75.5

118

Miami (O)

73.0

119

Massachusetts

72.3

120

New Mexico St.

71.9

121

Eastern Michigan

70.9

122

Florida Int’l

69.2

123

Idaho

68.7

124

Southern Miss.

68.1

125

Georgia St.

63.3

 

PiRate Mean

1

Florida St.

135.7

2

Alabama

133.3

3

Oregon

132.5

4

Ohio St.

127.0

5

Arizona St.

124.1

6

Clemson

121.5

7

Wisconsin

121.2

8

L S U

121.1

9

Baylor

121.0

10

Missouri

120.9

11

Texas A&M

119.9

12

Michigan St.

119.6

13

Stanford

118.5

14

South Carolina

117.1

15

Ole Miss

116.9

16

Miami

116.6

17

Auburn

115.6

18

Washington

115.6

19

Louisville

114.6

20

B Y U

113.5

21

Georgia

112.8

22

Michigan

112.5

23

Florida

112.3

24

Oklahoma St.

112.2

25

Arizona

111.9

26

U S C

111.9

27

Central Florida

111.8

28

Georgia Tech

111.6

29

U C L A

111.4

30

Oklahoma

111.3

31

Texas

110.7

32

Nebraska

110.4

33

Notre Dame

110.1

34

Houston

109.5

35

Virginia Tech

108.4

36

Oregon St.

108.1

37

North Carolina

107.8

38

Northwestern

106.2

39

Indiana

105.8

40

Texas Tech

105.7

41

Utah

105.7

42

Northern Illinois

105.6

43

Penn St.

105.6

44

Kansas St.

105.5

45

Minnesota

105.4

46

Iowa

105.3

47

East Carolina

104.9

48

Ball St.

104.7

49

Cincinnati

104.0

50

Utah St.

103.8

51

Fresno St.

103.6

52

Tennessee

103.5

53

Mississippi St.

103.5

54

Duke

103.4

55

Vanderbilt

103.0

56

Wake Forest

102.7

57

Boston College

102.4

58

Toledo

102.3

59

Boise St.

101.9

60

Marshall

101.9

61

T C U

101.5

62

North Texas

101.1

63

Washington St.

101.1

64

Bowling Green

100.2

65

Buffalo

100.1

66

Maryland

99.9

67

Illinois

99.6

68

Kentucky

99.2

69

Rutgers

98.9

70

Syracuse

98.8

71

Rice

98.8

72

Ohio

98.5

73

Pittsburgh

98.4

74

Louisiana–Lafayette

97.6

75

Arkansas

97.6

76

Navy

97.2

77

S M U

96.3

78

Memphis

95.7

79

North Carolina St.

95.5

80

West Virginia

95.3

81

Colorado St.

95.2

82

San Jose St.

94.6

83

U T S A

92.5

84

Virginia

91.7

85

Western Kentucky

91.6

86

San Diego St.

91.5

87

Middle Tennessee

91.0

88

Tulane

90.8

89

South Alabama

90.5

90

Florida Atlantic

90.5

91

Colorado

90.1

92

Louisiana–Monroe

89.4

93

Wyoming

89.0

94

Kansas

88.9

95

California

88.7

96

Arkansas St.

88.7

97

Nevada

88.6

98

Temple

88.5

99

Kent St.

88.5

100

U N L V

88.3

101

Texas St.

87.9

102

Army

87.8

103

Tulsa

87.2

104

Akron

87.0

105

Central Michigan

85.5

106

Purdue

85.4

107

Troy

85.2

108

Iowa St.

84.5

109

New Mexico

84.5

110

South Florida

84.4

111

Louisiana Tech

83.2

112

Air Force

83.2

113

Hawaii

82.8

114

U A B

82.4

115

U T E P

80.9

116

Connecticut

79.5

117

Massachusetts

77.3

118

Western Michigan

76.9

119

Miami (O)

76.5

120

New Mexico St.

75.1

121

Eastern Michigan

73.6

122

Idaho

73.3

123

Florida Int’l

71.4

124

Georgia St.

69.2

125

Southern Miss.

68.0

 

PiRate Bias

1

Alabama

138.2

2

Oregon

136.8

3

Florida St.

133.6

4

Baylor

130.1

5

Ohio St.

128.4

6

Stanford

125.3

7

Arizona St.

124.5

8

L S U

123.7

9

Missouri

122.2

10

Texas A&M

122.0

11

Wisconsin

121.5

12

Clemson

121.3

13

Oklahoma St.

120.7

14

Ole Miss

119.6

15

Washington

119.4

16

South Carolina

118.7

17

Michigan St.

118.3

18

Texas

117.9

19

Louisville

116.5

20

Auburn

115.9

21

B Y U

115.8

22

Miami

115.7

23

Oklahoma

115.1

24

U C L A

114.8

25

U S C

114.8

26

Georgia

114.5

27

Oregon St.

114.0

28

Arizona

113.9

29

Florida

113.9

30

Kansas St.

112.6

31

Georgia Tech

112.2

32

Michigan

111.5

33

Nebraska

111.1

34

Notre Dame

110.6

35

Central Florida

110.3

36

Texas Tech

109.2

37

Northwestern

108.4

38

Utah

107.6

39

Utah St.

107.5

40

Virginia Tech

107.4

41

North Carolina

106.7

42

Boise St.

106.6

43

Iowa

106.4

44

T C U

106.1

45

Mississippi St.

105.9

46

Minnesota

105.5

47

Vanderbilt

104.9

48

Fresno St.

104.4

49

Cincinnati

104.2

50

Northern Illinois

103.9

51

Penn St.

103.6

52

Tennessee

103.6

53

East Carolina

103.4

54

Indiana

103.4

55

Boston College

103.0

56

Houston

102.9

57

Washington St.

102.6

58

Ball St.

102.3

59

Duke

101.9

60

Toledo

101.4

61

West Virginia

101.3

62

Wake Forest

100.5

63

Bowling Green

100.2

64

Kentucky

100.1

65

North Texas

99.7

66

Marshall

99.6

67

Pittsburgh

99.4

68

Buffalo

99.3

69

Syracuse

98.7

70

San Jose St.

97.8

71

Illinois

97.4

72

Maryland

97.3

73

Louisiana–Lafayette

96.8

74

Rice

96.5

75

Colorado St.

96.3

76

Rutgers

96.0

77

Navy

95.7

78

Ohio

95.5

79

Arkansas

93.6

80

S M U

93.4

81

San Diego St.

92.6

82

North Carolina St.

92.3

83

Kansas

92.1

84

Iowa St.

91.6

85

California

91.5

86

Memphis

90.7

87

Arkansas St.

90.5

88

U T S A

90.4

89

Virginia

90.1

90

Florida Atlantic

89.8

91

Western Kentucky

89.6

92

Wyoming

88.7

93

Louisiana–Monroe

88.4

94

South Alabama

88.1

95

Tulane

87.7

96

South Florida

87.5

97

Colorado

87.3

98

Tulsa

87.1

99

Middle Tennessee

87.0

100

U N L V

86.9

101

Temple

86.8

102

Nevada

86.8

103

Kent St.

86.4

104

Purdue

85.4

105

Akron

84.1

106

Army

83.5

107

Troy

83.4

108

Hawaii

83.3

109

Texas St.

82.8

110

Connecticut

82.8

111

Central Michigan

82.3

112

New Mexico

81.4

113

U A B

80.7

114

Louisiana Tech

80.4

115

Air Force

79.6

116

U T E P

77.7

117

Western Michigan

75.6

118

Massachusetts

72.0

119

New Mexico St.

71.6

120

Miami (O)

71.5

121

Eastern Michigan

69.7

122

Florida Int’l

69.4

123

Idaho

68.1

124

Southern Miss.

67.4

125

Georgia St.

64.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

3-1

7-1

115.5

114.6

116.5

Central Florida

3-0

6-1

108.9

111.8

110.3

Cincinnati

3-1

6-2

104.5

104.0

104.2

Houston

4-0

7-1

101.7

109.5

102.9

Rutgers

2-2

5-3

95.9

98.9

96.0

S M U

2-1

3-4

94.2

96.3

93.4

Memphis

0-4

1-6

90.2

95.7

90.7

South Florida

2-2

2-6

87.8

84.4

87.5

Temple

0-5

1-8

87.1

88.5

86.8

Connecticut

0-3

0-7

83.5

79.5

82.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

96.9

98.3

97.1

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida St.

6-0

8-0

131.8

135.7

133.6

Clemson

6-1

8-1

120.2

121.5

121.3

Boston College

2-3

4-4

101.9

102.4

103.0

Syracuse

2-2

4-4

99.8

98.8

98.7

Wake Forest

2-4

4-5

99.8

102.7

100.5

Maryland

1-3

5-3

95.9

99.9

97.3

North Carolina St.

0-5

3-5

91.6

95.5

92.3

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami

3-1

7-1

115.2

116.6

115.7

Georgia Tech

5-2

6-3

112.1

111.6

112.2

Virginia Tech

3-2

6-3

108.1

108.4

107.4

North Carolina

2-3

3-5

105.9

107.8

106.7

Duke

2-2

6-2

102.4

103.4

101.9

Pittsburgh

2-3

4-4

99.4

98.4

99.4

Virginia

0-5

2-7

90.0

91.7

90.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.3

106.7

105.7

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baylor

4-0

7-0

128.2

121.0

130.1

Oklahoma St.

4-1

7-1

120.9

112.2

120.7

Texas

5-0

6-2

118.8

110.7

117.9

Oklahoma

4-1

7-1

115.8

111.3

115.1

Kansas St.

2-3

4-4

112.9

105.5

112.6

Texas Tech

4-2

7-2

110.0

105.7

109.2

T C U

1-5

3-6

106.7

101.5

106.1

West Virginia

2-4

4-5

102.2

95.3

101.3

Iowa St.

0-5

1-7

93.0

84.5

91.6

Kansas

0-5

2-6

92.6

88.9

92.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

110.1

103.7

109.7

 

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

5-0

9-0

128.2

127.0

128.4

Wisconsin

4-1

6-2

120.4

121.2

121.5

Penn St.

2-2

5-3

104.5

105.6

103.6

Indiana

1-3

3-5

104.0

105.8

103.4

Illinois

0-4

3-5

97.7

99.6

97.4

Purdue

0-4

1-7

88.0

85.4

85.4

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

5-0

8-1

118.9

119.6

118.3

Michigan

2-2

6-2

112.3

112.5

111.5

Nebraska

3-1

6-2

112.3

110.4

111.1

Northwestern

0-5

4-5

108.6

106.2

108.4

Iowa

2-3

5-4

106.0

105.3

106.4

Minnesota

3-2

7-2

105.7

105.4

105.5

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

108.9

108.7

108.4

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

East Carolina

4-1

6-2

103.0

104.9

103.4

Marshall

3-1

5-3

98.3

101.9

99.6

Florida Atlantic

2-4

3-6

89.0

90.5

89.8

Middle Tennessee

3-2

5-4

86.1

91.0

87.0

U A B

1-3

2-6

81.4

82.4

80.7

Florida Int’l

1-3

1-7

69.2

71.4

69.4

Southern Miss.

0-4

0-8

68.1

68.0

67.4

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

North Texas

4-1

6-3

98.5

101.1

99.7

Rice

4-1

6-3

96.2

98.8

96.5

U T S A

3-2

4-5

90.6

92.5

90.4

Tulsa

1-3

2-6

88.1

87.2

87.1

Tulane

4-1

6-3

87.3

90.8

87.7

Louisiana Tech

2-2

3-5

80.8

83.2

80.4

U T E P

0-4

1-7

79.0

80.9

77.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

86.8

88.9

86.9

 

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

B Y U

 

6-2

114.8

113.5

115.8

Notre Dame

 

7-2

112.2

110.1

110.6

Navy

 

4-4

95.5

97.2

95.7

Army

 

3-6

82.1

87.8

83.5

Idaho

 

1-8

68.7

73.3

68.1

New Mexico St.

 

1-8

71.9

75.1

71.6

     

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

90.9

92.8

90.9

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

3-1

5-3

99.8

100.2

100.2

Buffalo

4-0

6-2

97.8

100.1

99.3

Ohio

3-1

6-2

94.7

98.5

95.5

Kent St.

1-5

2-8

86.0

88.5

86.4

Akron

2-4

3-7

83.3

87.0

84.1

Miami (O)

0-4

0-8

73.0

76.5

71.5

Massachusetts

1-4

1-8

72.3

77.3

72.0

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Northern Illinois

5-0

9-0

103.3

105.6

103.9

Ball St.

5-0

8-1

101.1

104.7

102.3

Toledo

4-1

6-3

100.4

102.3

101.4

Central Michigan

2-2

3-5

82.8

85.5

82.3

Western Michigan

1-4

1-8

75.5

76.9

75.6

Eastern Michigan

0-5

1-8

70.9

73.6

69.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.8

90.5

88.0

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Utah St.

4-1

5-4

105.8

103.8

107.5

Boise St.

4-1

6-3

105.2

101.9

106.6

Colorado St.

2-2

4-5

95.5

95.2

96.3

Wyoming

2-2

4-4

87.7

89.0

88.7

New Mexico

0-4

2-6

80.8

84.5

81.4

Air Force

0-5

2-7

79.8

83.2

79.6

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

5-0

8-0

104.1

103.6

104.4

San Jose St.

4-1

5-3

97.0

94.6

97.8

San Diego St.

3-1

4-4

92.5

91.5

92.6

Nevada

2-4

3-6

86.7

88.6

86.8

U N L V

3-2

5-4

86.5

88.3

86.9

Hawaii

0-6

0-8

82.8

82.8

83.3

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

92.0

92.3

92.7

 

 

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon

5-0

8-0

135.6

132.5

136.8

Stanford

5-1

7-1

126.0

118.5

125.3

Washington

2-3

5-3

119.7

115.6

119.4

Oregon St.

4-2

6-3

116.0

108.1

114.0

Washington St.

2-4

4-5

101.9

101.1

102.6

California

0-6

1-8

92.9

88.7

91.5

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona St.

4-1

6-2

124.4

124.1

124.5

U C L A

3-2

6-2

116.5

111.4

114.8

Arizona

3-2

6-2

115.3

111.9

113.9

U S C

3-2

6-3

115.1

111.9

114.8

Utah

1-4

4-4

108.0

105.7

107.6

Colorado

0-5

3-5

89.1

90.1

87.3

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.4

110.0

112.7

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Missouri

4-1

8-1

122.9

120.9

122.2

South Carolina

5-2

7-2

119.6

117.1

118.7

Georgia

4-2

5-3

115.4

112.8

114.5

Florida

3-3

4-4

115.2

112.3

113.9

Vanderbilt

1-4

4-4

105.6

103.0

104.9

Tennessee

1-4

4-5

104.7

103.5

103.6

Kentucky

0-4

2-6

99.4

99.2

100.1

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

5-0

8-0

137.1

133.3

138.2

L S U

3-2

7-2

123.0

121.1

123.7

Texas A&M

3-2

7-2

122.0

119.9

122.0

Ole Miss

2-3

5-3

120.0

116.9

119.6

Auburn

4-1

8-1

115.7

115.6

115.9

Mississippi St.

1-3

4-4

106.3

103.5

105.9

Arkansas

0-5

3-6

95.1

97.6

93.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.4

112.6

114.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana–Lafayette

3-0

6-2

96.2

97.6

96.8

Arkansas St.

2-1

4-4

90.8

88.7

90.5

Western Kentucky

2-3

5-4

89.5

91.6

89.6

Louisiana–Monroe

3-1

5-4

88.3

89.4

88.4

South Alabama

1-3

3-5

87.4

90.5

88.1

Troy

3-2

5-4

82.5

85.2

83.4

Texas St.

2-2

6-3

82.3

87.9

82.8

Georgia St.

0-4

0-9

63.3

69.2

64.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

85.0

87.5

85.5

 

 

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Old Dominion

 

6-3

84.6

85.4

91.3

Georgia Southern

 

4-3

82.4

84.8

89.5

Appalachian St.

 

1-7

72.8

71.7

79.9

Charlotte

 

4-5

57.5

62.1

64.6

           
Not figured in regular averages to 100

74.3

76.0

81.3

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami (O) Bowling Green

-24.8

-21.7

-26.7

Buffalo Ohio

6.1

4.6

6.8

Ball St. Central Michigan

21.3

22.2

23.0

Baylor Oklahoma

15.4

12.7

18.0

UL-Lafayette Troy

16.7

15.4

16.4

Stanford Oregon

-6.6

-11.0

-8.5

Connecticut Louisville

-29.5

-32.6

-31.2

New Mexico Air Force

3.5

3.8

4.3

Wake Forest Florida St.

-29.0

-30.0

-30.1

Miami (Fla) Virginia Tech

10.1

11.2

11.3

Pittsburgh Notre Dame

-9.8

-8.7

-8.2

Kentucky Missouri

-20.5

18.7

-19.1

Tennessee Auburn

-8.0

-9.1

-9.3

Texas Tech Kansas St.

0.1

3.2

-0.4

Florida Vanderbilt

12.6

12.3

12.0

Iowa St. T C U

-10.7

-14.0

-11.5

Minnesota Penn St.

4.2

2.8

4.9

Marshall U A B

19.9

22.5

21.9

Army Western Kentucky

-4.9

-1.3

-3.6

Cincinnati S M U

13.3

10.7

13.8

Purdue Iowa

-15.5

-17.4

-18.5

Ole Miss Arkansas

27.9

22.3

29.0

North Carolina Virginia

18.9

19.1

19.6

Eastern Michigan Western Michigan

-2.6

-1.3

-3.9

U T S A Tulane

5.8

4.2

5.2

California U S C

-19.2

-20.2

-20.3

Texas A&M Mississippi St.

18.7

19.4

19.1

Michigan Nebraska

3.0

5.1

3.4

Wisconsin B Y U

8.6

10.7

8.7

Colorado St. Nevada

11.8

9.6

12.5

Indiana Illinois

8.8

8.7

8.5

Maryland Syracuse

-0.9

4.8

1.6

New Mexico St. Boston College

-26.5

-23.8

-28.9

North Texas U T E P

22.0

22.7

24.5

Navy Hawaii

16.7

18.4

16.4

East Carolina Tulsa

17.9

20.7

19.3

Oklahoma St. Kansas

31.3

26.3

31.6

Duke North Carolina St.

12.8

9.9

11.6

Utah Arizona St.

-13.4

-15.4

-13.9

Middle Tennessee Florida Int’l

19.4

22.1

20.1

Central Florida Houston

10.2

5.3

10.4

West Virginia Texas

-13.6

-12.4

-13.6

Louisiana Tech Southern Miss.

14.7

17.2

15.0

UL-Monroe Arkansas St.

0.0

3.2

0.4

Alabama L S U

17.1

15.2

17.5

Washington Colorado

33.6

28.5

35.1

U N L V Utah St.

-16.3

-12.5

-17.6

Arizona U C L A

1.8

3.5

2.1

Wyoming Fresno St.

-13.4

-11.6

-12.7

San Jose St. San Diego St.

7.5

6.1

8.2

 

Other Games Involving FBS Teams

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Appalachian St.

45.6

44.1

37.6

Idaho Old Dominion

-12.4

-8.6

-19.7

 

 

This Week’s Full Bowl Projections

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

Utah St.

vs.

Oregon St.

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Boise St.

vs.

Washington

Famous Idaho Potato

Colorado St.

vs.

Buffalo

New Orleans

UL-Lafayette

vs.

Tulane

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

Western Kentucky *

vs.

Middle Tennessee

Hawai’i

U N L V

vs.

Rice

Little Caesars Pizza

Toledo

vs.

Texas St. *

Poinsettia

Fresno St.

vs.

Notre Dame *

Military Bowl

Syracuse

vs.

East Carolina

Texas

Iowa

vs.

Kansas St.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Arizona

vs.

B Y U

Pinstripe

Rutgers

vs.

West Virginia

Belk

Houston

vs.

Maryland

Russell Athletic

Louisville

vs.

Miami

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Oklahoma

vs.

Nebraska

Armed Forces

San Jose St.

vs.

Navy

Music City

Georgia Tech

vs.

Ole Miss

Alamo

Texas

vs.

Arizona St.

Holiday

Texas Tech

vs.

U S C

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

Bowling Green *

vs.

Duke

Sun

Virginia Tech

vs.

U C L A

Liberty

Florida

vs.

Marshall

Chick-fil-A

Clemson

vs.

L S U

Heart Of Dallas

North Texas

vs.

Ohio *

Gator

Minnesota

vs.

Georgia

Outback

Texas A&M

vs.

Michigan

Capital One

Wisconsin

vs.

Missouri

Rose

Michigan St.

vs.

Stanford

Fiesta

Baylor

vs.

Northern Illinois

Sugar

Auburn

vs.

Central Florida

Cotton

South Carolina

vs.

Oklahoma St.

Orange

Florida St.

vs.

Ohio St.

BBVA Compass Bowl

Cincinnati

vs.

Vanderbilt

GoDaddy.com

UL-Monroe

vs.

Ball St.

BCS Championship

Alabama

vs.

Oregon

 

 

 

 

* At-Large Selection

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6-win teams not chosen      
Arkansas St.

 

 

 

Boston College

 

 

 

Central Michigan

 

 

 

Florida Atlantic

 

 

 

North Carolina

 

 

 

Troy

 

 

 

Utah

 

 

 

 

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