PiRate Ratings For College Football–Week of: December 9, 2008

NCAA Regular Season Summation

 

Congratulations go to Oklahoma and Florida, and my condolences go to Texas, Southern Cal, and Penn State, and Alabama.  Some biased poll voters, a couple of computer geeks, and a couple of sports elitists have determined that the Sooners and Gators are a couple hundredths of a percentage point better than the rest of the pack and deserve to play for the national title.

 

Florida lost their one game at home.  Oklahoma lost their one game on a neutral field to one of the other teams up for consideration.  Alabama’s loss on a neutral field to Florida is the exact same situation.  Texas lost on the road to an undefeated Texas Tech team on the final play of the game.  Southern Cal lost on the road at Oregon State with one late play figuring greatly in the outcome.  Penn State lost on the road at Iowa on the final play of the game.  So, the computers can tell us that Florida and Oklahoma are the two most deserving? 

 

Here are the final regular season PiRate Top 25 and the PiRate Ratings by conference:

 

NCAA Top 25 For 2-Dec-2008
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Florida	140	12	1
2	Oklahoma	139	12	1
3	Southern Cal	131	11	1
4	Texas	128	11	1
5	Ohio St.	127	10	2
6	Alabama	125	12	1
7	Penn St.	125	11	1
8	Ole Miss	121	8	4
9	Texas Tech	120	11	1
10	Boise State	120	12	0
11	T C U	120	10	2
12	Oregon	120	9	3
13	Utah	118	12	0
14	Iowa	117	8	4
15	Rutgers	117	7	5
16	California	116	8	4
17	Georgia	115	9	3
18	Oklahoma St.	114	9	3
19	Arizona	114	7	5
20	Clemson	113	7	5
21	Oregon State	113	8	4
22	Missouri	113	9	4
23	Florida State	112	8	4
24	Pittsburgh	112	9	3
25	Cincinnati	110	11	2
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Clemson	4-4	7-5	113	68	45
Florida State	5-3	8-4	112	70	42
North Carolina State	4-4	6-6	106	70	36
Boston College	5-3*	9-4	104	63	41
Wake Forest	4-4	7-5	104	56	48
Maryland	4-4	7-5	101	62	39
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Virginia Tech	5-3*+	9-4	109	67	42
Georgia Tech	5-3	9-3	109	68	41
North Carolina	4-4	8-4	105	66	39
Miami	4-4	7-5	102	60	42
Virginia	3-5	5-7	100	58	42
Duke	1-7	4-8	93	60	33

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Rutgers	5-2	7-5	117	70	47
Pittsburgh	5-2	9-3	112	66	46
Cincinnati	6-1	11-2	110	64	46
West Virginia	5-2	8-4	110	65	45
South Florida	2-5	7-5	106	68	38
Connecticut	3-4	7-5	102	64	38
Louisville	1-6	5-7	91	57	34
Syracuse	1-6	3-9	89	56	33

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Ohio State	7-1	10-2	127	71	56
Penn State	7-1	11-1	125	76	49
Iowa	5-3	8-4	117	72	45
Wisconsin	3-5	7-5	107	71	36
Northwestern	5-3	9-3	105	64	41
Michigan State	6-2	9-3	104	64	40
Purdue	2-6	4-8	103	67	36
Illinois	3-5	5-7	102	65	37
Michigan	2-6	3-9	96	57	39
Minnesota	3-5	7-5	92	58	34
Indiana	1-7	3-9	79	54	25

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Missouri	5-3*	9-4	113	74	39
Kansas	4-4	7-5	109	67	42
Nebraska	5-3	8-4	108	70	38
Colorado	2-6	5-7	95	57	38
Kansas State	2-6	5-7	92	67	25
Iowa State	0-8	2-10	86	57	29
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Oklahoma	7-1+	12-1	139	97	42
Texas	7-1	11-1	128	82	46
Texas Tech	7-1	11-1	120	85	35
Oklahoma State	5-3	9-3	114	71	43
Baylor	2-6	4-8	106	68	38
Texas A&M	2-6	4-8	90	56	34

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
East Carolina	6-2+	9-4	99	62	37
Southern Miss.	4-4	6-6	97	64	33
Memphis	4-4	6-6	92	61	31
Marshall	3-5	4-8	89	58	31
Central Florida	3-5	4-8	88	46	42
U A B	3-5	4-8	84	51	33
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Tulsa	7-1*	10-3	103	72	31
Rice	7-1	9-3	97	66	31
Houston	6-2	7-5	97	67	30
U T E P	4-4	5-7	87	59	28
S M U	0-8	1-11	78	57	21
Tulane	1-7	2-10	69	50	19

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Navy		8-4	104	61	43
Notre Dame		6-6	98	58	40
Army		3-9	82	46	36

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Bowling Green	4-4	6-6	103	68	35
Buffalo	5-3+	8-5	101	68	33
Temple	4-4	5-7	96	57	39
Ohio U	3-5	4-8	91	51	40
Kent State	3-5	4-8	89	58	31
Akron	3-5	5-7	89	60	29
Miami (O)	1-7	2-10	81	54	27
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Ball State	8-0	12-1	109	73	36
Western Michigan	6-2	9-3	100	63	37
Northern Illinois	5-3	6-6	98	59	39
Central Michigan	6-2	8-4	97	68	29
Eastern Michigan	2-6	3-9	88	59	29
Toledo	2-6	3-9	85	55	30

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
T C U	7-1	10-2	120	68	52
Utah	8-0	12-0	118	70	48
Brigham Young	6-2	10-2	106	67	39
Air Force	5-3	8-4	95	58	37
Colorado State	4-4	6-6	93	60	33
New Mexico	2-6	4-8	93	56	37
UNLV	2-6	5-7	85	56	29
Wyoming	1-7	4-8	85	51	34
San Diego State	1-7	2-10	76	49	27

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Southern Cal	7-1	11-1	131	72	59
Oregon	7-2	9-3	120	77	43
California	6-3	8-4	116	73	43
Arizona	5-4	7-5	114	75	39
Oregon State	7-2	8-4	113	74	39
Stanford	4-5	5-7	106	64	42
Arizona State	4-5	5-7	103	63	40
U C L A	3-6	4-8	100	57	43
Washington	0-9	0-12	81	54	27
Washington State	1-8	2-11	74	49	25

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Florida	7-1+	12-1	140	86	54
Georgia	6-2	9-3	115	73	42
South Carolina	4-4	7-5	108	63	45
Tennessee	3-5	5-7	107	62	45
Kentucky	2-6	6-6	102	62	40
Vanderbilt	4-4	6-6	100	55	45
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Alabama	8-0	12-1	125	69	56
Ole Miss	5-3	8-4	121	74	47
L S U	3-5	7-5	106	68	38
Arkansas	2-6	5-7	102	68	34
Auburn	2-6	5-7	102	56	46
Mississippi State	2-6	4-8	97	55	42

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Troy	6-1	8-4	105	69	36
Florida Atlantic	4-3	6-6	90	61	29
Middle Tennessee	3-4	5-7	90	58	32
Arkansas State	4-3	6-6	89	59	30
Florida International	3-4	5-7	89	58	31
Louisiana-Lafayette	5-2	6-6	88	66	22
Louisiana-Monroe	3-4	4-8	87	56	31
* Western Kentucky	0-0	2-10	79	49	30
North Texas	0-7	1-11	70	55	15
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Boise State	8-0	12-0	120	74	46
Nevada	5-3	7-5	102	73	29
Louisiana Tech	5-3	7-5	94	56	38
Utah State	3-5	3-9	93	57	36
Hawaii	5-3	7-6	93	55	38
Fresno State	4-4	7-5	88	61	27
San Jose State	4-4	6-6	85	53	32
New Mexico State	1-7	3-9	74	48	26
Idaho	1-7	2-10	73	57	16

 

Here is the bowl schedule

 

Date	Time EST	Bowl	City	Team	Team
D. 20	11:00	Eagle Bank	Washington DC	Wake Forest	Navy
D. 20	2:30	New Mexico	Albuquerque	Colorado State	Fresno State
D. 20	4:30	St. Petersburg	St. Petersburg	South Florida	Memphis
D. 20	8:00	Las Vegas	Las Vegas	B Y U	Arizona
D. 21	8:15	New Orleans	New Orleans	Troy	Southern Miss.
D. 23	8:00	Poinsettia	San Diego	Boise State	T C U
D. 24	8:00	Hawaii	Honolulu	Hawaii	Notre Dame
D. 26	8:00	Motor City	Detroit	Central Michigan	Florida Atlantic
D. 27	1:00	Meineke Car Care	Charlotte	North Carolina	West Virginia
D. 27	4:30	Champs Sports	Orlando	Florida State	Wisconsin
D. 27	8:00	Emerald	San Francisco	California	Miami (Fl.)
D. 28	8:15	Independence	Shrevport	Louisiana Tech	Northern Illinois
D. 29	3:00	PapaJohns	Birmingham	N. C. State	Rutgers
D. 29	8:00	Alamo	San Antonio	Northwestern	Missouri
D. 30	4:30	Humanitarian	Boise	Nevada	Maryland
D. 30	8:00	Texas	Houston	Western Michigan	Rice
D. 30	8:00	Holiday	San Diego	Oregon	Oklahoma State
D. 31	12:00	Armed Forces	Ft. Worth	Air Force	Houston
D. 31	2:00	Sun	El Paso	Oregon State	Pittsburgh
D. 31	3:30	Music City	Nashville	Vanderbilt	Boston College
D. 31	5:30	Insight	Tempe	Kansas	Minnesota
D. 31	7:30	Chick-fil-a	Atlanta	Georgia Tech	L S U
J. 1	11:00	Outback	Tampa	Iowa	South Carolina
J. 1	1:00	Capital One	Orlando	Georgia	Michigan State
J. 1	1:00	Gator	Jacksonville	Clemson	Nebraska
J. 1	4:30	Rose	Pasadena	Southern Cal	Penn State
J. 1	8:30	Orange	Miami	Virginia Tech	Cincinnati
J. 2	2:00	Cotton	Dallas	Texas Tech	Ole Miss
J. 2	5:00	Liberty	Memphis	East Carolina	Kentucky
J. 2	8:00	Sugar	New Orleans	Alabama	Utah
J. 3	12:00	International	Toronto	Connecticut	Buffalo
J. 5	8:00	Fiesta	Glendale	Texas	Ohio State
J. 6	8:00	G M A C	Mobile	Tulsa	Ball State
J. 8	8:00	Nat’l Championship	Miami	Florida	Oklahoma

PiRate Ratings For College Football–Week of: December 3-6, 2008

NCAA Week 15: The Postseason Falls to BieCeS

 

With one weekend remaining in the regular season, the dreadful BCS has suffered from yet another snafu.  Oklahoma is in the Big 12 Championship Game because a computer or two has deemed the Sooners to be a tiny bit better than the Longhorns even though Texas beat them by 10 points on a neutral field.  The Big 12 should have never used BCS ranking to break three-way ties, but then again the BCS shouldn’t be there in the first place for the Big 12 brass to be dumb enough to use it as its tiebreaker.

 

I don’t advocate that Texas should be in that title game instead of Oklahoma or even Texas Tech.  I don’t believe the BCS system to be credible; the vote of Oklahoma over Texas is ridiculous, and if Texas had been voted in by a miniscule amount, it would have been just as ridiculous.

 

If Oklahoma wins this week over an inferior Missouri squad, the Sooners will play for the national title against the winner of the Alabama-Florida game.  Southern Cal, Texas Tech, and Penn State, as well as Utah, Boise State, and Ball State among other top contenders will get no chance to compete for all the marbles.

 

The Top 25 had very little movement after this past weekend.  The bowl situations started to come into focus, as information started to leak out on which bowls want which teams if they are available.  So, when you read the bowl section below, realize that these are not just predictions now; some of the teams are slotted based on leaked information from bowl scouts.

 

Personally, I believe Florida and Southern Cal are the two best teams in the nation.  The Gators’ offense is as good as any college team in 13 years, while the Trojans’ defense is the best college defense in 16 years.

 

NCAA Top 25 For 2-Dec-2008
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Florida	141	11	1
2	Oklahoma	134	11	1
3	Southern Cal	132	10	1
4	Texas	128	11	1
5	Ohio St.	127	10	2
6	Penn St.	125	11	1
7	Alabama	124	12	0
8	Ole Miss	121	8	4
9	Texas Tech	120	11	1
10	Boise State	120	12	0
11	T C U	120	10	2
12	Oregon	120	9	3
13	Utah	118	12	0
14	Missouri	118	9	3
15	Iowa	117	8	4
16	Georgia	115	9	3
17	Ball State	114	12	0
18	California	114	7	4
19	Oklahoma St.	114	9	3
20	Clemson	113	7	5
21	Oregon State	113	8	4
22	Florida State	112	8	4
23	Rutgers	112	6	5
24	Cincinnati	111	10	2
25	Arizona	111	6	5
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Clemson	4-4	7-5	113	68	45
Florida State	5-3	8-4	112	70	42
Boston College	5-3*	9-3	107	65	42
North Carolina State	4-4	6-6	106	70	36
Wake Forest	4-4	7-5	104	56	48
Maryland	4-4	7-5	101	62	39
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Georgia Tech	5-3	9-3	109	68	41
Virginia Tech	5-3*	8-4	106	65	41
North Carolina	4-4	8-4	105	66	39
Miami	4-4	7-5	102	60	42
Virginia	3-5	5-7	100	58	42
Duke	1-7	4-8	93	60	33

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Rutgers	4-2	6-5	112	67	45
Cincinnati	6-1	10-2	111	65	46
West Virginia	4-2	7-4	111	66	45
Pittsburgh	4-2	8-3	109	65	44
Connecticut	3-3	7-4	105	65	40
South Florida	2-4	7-4	105	68	37
Louisville	1-5	5-6	96	59	37
Syracuse	1-6	3-9	89	56	33

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Ohio State	7-1	10-2	127	71	56
Penn State	7-1	11-1	125	76	49
Iowa	5-3	8-4	117	72	45
Wisconsin	3-5	7-5	107	71	36
Northwestern	5-3	9-3	105	64	41
Michigan State	6-2	9-3	104	64	40
Purdue	2-6	4-8	103	67	36
Illinois	3-5	5-7	102	65	37
Michigan	2-6	3-9	96	57	39
Minnesota	3-5	7-5	92	58	34
Indiana	1-7	3-9	79	54	25

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Missouri	5-3*	9-3	118	75	43
Kansas	4-4	7-5	109	67	42
Nebraska	5-3	8-4	108	70	38
Colorado	2-6	5-7	95	57	38
Kansas State	2-6	5-7	92	67	25
Iowa State	0-8	2-10	86	57	29
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Oklahoma	7-1	11-1	134	93	41
Texas	7-1	11-1	128	82	46
Texas Tech	7-1	11-1	120	85	35
Oklahoma State	5-3	9-3	114	71	43
Baylor	2-6	4-8	106	68	38
Texas A&M	2-6	4-8	90	56	34

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
East Carolina	6-2	8-4	98	62	36
Southern Miss.	4-4	6-6	97	64	33
Memphis	4-4	6-6	92	61	31
Marshall	3-5	4-8	89	58	31
Central Florida	3-5	4-8	88	46	42
U A B	3-5	4-8	84	51	33
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Tulsa	7-1*	10-2	104	73	31
Rice	7-1	9-3	97	66	31
Houston	6-2	7-5	97	67	30
U T E P	4-4	5-7	87	59	28
S M U	0-8	1-11	78	57	21
Tulane	1-7	2-10	69	50	19

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Navy		7-4	100	60	40
Notre Dame		6-6	98	58	40
Army		3-8	86	49	37

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Bowling Green	4-4	6-6	103	68	35
Buffalo	5-3	7-5	96	64	32
Temple	4-4	5-7	96	57	39
Ohio U	3-5	4-8	91	51	40
Kent State	3-5	4-8	89	58	31
Akron	3-5	5-7	89	60	29
Miami (O)	1-7	2-10	81	54	27
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Ball State	8-0	12-0	114	75	39
Western Michigan	6-2	9-3	100	63	37
Northern Illinois	5-3	6-6	98	59	39
Central Michigan	6-2	8-4	97	68	29
Eastern Michigan	2-6	3-9	88	59	29
Toledo	2-6	3-9	85	55	30

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
T C U	7-1	10-2	120	68	52
Utah	8-0	12-0	118	70	48
Brigham Young	6-2	10-2	106	67	39
Air Force	5-3	8-4	95	58	37
Colorado State	4-4	6-6	93	60	33
New Mexico	2-6	4-8	93	56	37
UNLV	2-6	5-7	85	56	29
Wyoming	1-7	4-8	85	51	34
San Diego State	1-7	2-10	76	49	27

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Southern Cal	7-1	10-1	132	73	59
Oregon	7-2	9-3	120	77	43
California	5-3	7-4	114	72	42
Oregon State	7-2	8-4	113	74	39
Arizona	4-4	6-5	111	74	37
Arizona State	4-4	5-6	106	65	41
Stanford	4-5	5-7	106	64	42
U C L A	3-5	4-7	99	57	42
Washington	0-8	0-11	83	55	28
Washington State	1-8	2-11	74	49	25

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Florida	7-1	11-1	141	87	54
Georgia	6-2	9-3	115	73	42
South Carolina	4-4	7-5	108	63	45
Tennessee	3-5	5-7	107	62	45
Kentucky	2-6	6-6	102	62	40
Vanderbilt	4-4	6-6	100	55	45
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Alabama	8-0	12-0	124	69	55
Ole Miss	5-3	8-4	121	74	47
L S U	3-5	7-5	106	68	38
Arkansas	2-6	5-7	102	68	34
Auburn	2-6	5-7	102	56	46
Mississippi State	2-6	4-8	97	55	42

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Troy	5-1	7-4	104	68	36
Middle Tennessee	3-3	5-6	92	58	34
Arkansas State	4-2	6-5	90	60	30
Florida Atlantic	4-3	6-6	90	61	29
Louisiana-Monroe	3-4	4-8	87	56	31
Louisiana-Lafayette	4-2	5-6	86	64	22
Florida International	3-4	4-7	86	57	29
* Western Kentucky	0-0	2-9	82	51	31
North Texas	0-7	1-11	70	55	15
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Boise State	8-0	12-0	120	74	46
Nevada	5-3	7-5	102	73	29
Louisiana Tech	5-3	7-5	94	56	38
Utah State	3-5	3-9	93	57	36
Hawaii	5-3	7-5	91	54	37
Fresno State	4-4	7-5	88	61	27
San Jose State	4-4	6-6	85	53	32
New Mexico State	1-7	3-9	74	48	26
Idaho	1-7	2-10	73	57	16

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Wednesday, December 3
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
Middle Tennessee	LA.-LAFAYETTE	3	34-31
Thursday, December 4
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
RUTGERS	Louisville	19	31-12
Friday, December 5
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
Ball State            (Detroit)	Buffalo	18	42-24
Saturday, December 6
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
Pittsburgh	CONNECTICUT	1	24-23
TULSA	East Carolina	9	40-31
Navy	Army	14	21-7
Boston College	Virginia Tech	1	21-20
CALIFORNIA	Washington	34	44-10
Florida	Alabama	17	31-14
Southern Cal	U C L A	30	30-0
FLA. INT’L	Western Ky.	7	28-21
TROY	Arkansas State	17	38-21
ARIZONA	Arizona State	8	35-27
WEST VIRGINIA	South Florida	9	30-21
Oklahoma	Missouri	16	49-33
Cincinnati	HAWAII	16	26-10

 

This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Wednesday, December 3
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Score
LA.-LAFAYETTE	Middle Tennessee	27-24
Thursday, December 4
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Score
RUTGERS	Louisville	34-21
Friday, December 5
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Score
Ball State            (Detroit)	Buffalo	37-24
Saturday, December 6
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Score
Pittsburgh	CONNECTICUT	21-21 to OT
TULSA	East Carolina	42-34
Navy             (Philadelphia)	Army	35-24
Boston Coll.   (Jacksonville)	Virginia Tech	20-17
CALIFORNIA	Washington	42-10
Florida                 (Atlanta)	Alabama	27-17
Southern Cal	U C L A	34-7
FLA. INT’L	Western Ky.	30-20
TROY	Arkansas State	34-24
ARIZONA	Arizona State	28-20
WEST VIRGINIA	South Florida	24-19
Oklahoma    (Kansas City)	Missouri	44-31
Cincinnati	HAWAII	27-17

 

Bowl Outlook By Conference

 

Teams in all CAPS have already accepted invitations to that bowl.

 

ACC

After having a new team at the top of each division for multiple weeks, Boston College and Virginia Tech both won last week when they had to win.  Now, the winner of their game will advance to the Orange Bowl, while the loser probably drops to the Champs Sports Bowl.

 

With Georgia Tech’s win over Georgia, their hometown bowl will be glad to take the Yellow Jackets.  That bowl prefers a ranked team coming off a win, and Tech fits that bill.

 

Florida State will get the Gator Bowl invitation regardless of how the ACC title game turns out.  The Gator Bowl does not want to have the loser of the title game returning to Jacksonville three weeks later.

 

1. Orange Bowl-Boston College 10-3 vs. Cincinnati

2. Chick-fil-a-Georgia Tech 9-3 vs. L S U

3. Gator-Florida State 8-4 vs. Nebraska

4. Champs Sports-Virginia Tech 8-5 vs. Wisconsin

5. Music City-North Carolina 8-4 vs. Vanderbilt

6. Meineke Car Care-Miami 7-5 vs. West Virginia

7. Eagle Bank-Wake Forest 7-5 vs. NAVY

8. Emerald-Clemson 7-5 vs. California

9. Humanitarian-Maryland 7-5 vs. Nevada

10. Hawaii (at-large)-N.C. State 6-6 vs. Southern Miss.

 

Big East

Cincinnati has clinched a BCS Bowl spot.  The Bearcats are more than likely headed to the Orange Bowl.

 

Notre Dame’s loss to USC means the Irish may not seize one of this league’s bids.  If Rutgers beats Louisville, then there will be six, seven-win bowl eligible teams for six bowls; Notre Dame would not be eligible for a Big East Bowl, so they would become the top 6-6 at-large possibility.  Should Louisville win this week, then Notre Dame will be headed to El Paso.

 

1. Orange-Cincinnati 11-2 vs. Boston College

2. Sun-Rutgers 7-5 vs. Oregon State

3. St. Petersburg-South Florida 7-5 vs. East Carolina

4. Meineke Car Care-West Virginia 8-4 vs. Miami (Fla)

5. International-Connecticut 8-4 vs. Buffalo

6. Papa John’s-Pittsburgh 8-4 vs. Middle Tennessee State

 

Big Ten

Ohio State is almost assured to get the final BCS Bowl bid over Boise State, so the Big Ten will not have enough bowl-eligible teams for their seven allotted bids.  That may open the Motor City Bowl for a possible match of undefeated teams.

 

Although not technically official, Penn State has been mathematically eliminated from moving into the National Championship Game.  Thus, I have them “officially” in the Rose Bowl.

 

1. Rose-PENN STATE 11-1 vs. Southern Cal

2. Fiesta-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Texas

3. Capital One-Michigan State 9-3 vs. Georgia

3. Outback-Iowa 8-4 vs. South Carolina

4. Champs Sports-Wisconsin 7-5 vs. Virginia Tech

5. Alamo-Northwestern 9-3 vs. Missouri

6. Insight-Minnesota 7-5 vs. Kansas

7. Motor City-No qualifying team

 

Big 12

Missouri is being overlooked by everybody but Oklahoma this week, so I expect the Sooners to drill the Tigers.

 

With two teams headed to BCS Bowls, and with Colorado failing to upset Nebraska, this league will fall two teams short.

 

1. BCS National Championship-Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Florida

2. Fiesta-Texas 11-1 vs. Ohio State

3. Cotton-Texas Tech 11-1 vs. Ole Miss

4. Gator-Nebraska 8-4 vs. Florida State

5. Holiday-Oklahoma State 9-3 vs. Oregon

6. Alamo-Missouri 9-4 vs. Northwestern

7. Insight-Kansas 6-6 vs. Minnesota

8. Independence-No Qualifying Team

9. Texas-No Qualifying team

 

C-USA

Tulsa and East Carolina are the two divisional champions, and I believe the Golden Hurricane will win the title game this week.  Rice is the best team in this league as the season ends, but the Owls will not be at the top of the list for those remaining bowl-eligible teams.  Expect to see Rice fall to the Texas Bowl.

 

Unless another bowl chooses them first, Houston may wind up in Ft. Worth playing Air Force in a rematch of a game played in the regular season.  I think Rice would be a better opponent, but the Cougars are the better drawing team. 

 

1. Liberty-Tulsa 11-2 vs. Kentucky

2. St. Petersburg-East Carolina 8-5 vs. South Florida

3. G M A C-Southern Miss. 6-6 vs. Central Michigan

4. Armed Forces-Houston 7-5 vs. Air Force

5. Texas-Rice 9-3 vs. Notre Dame

6. New Orleans-Memphis 6-6 vs. Troy

 

Independent

Navy is headed to the Eagle Bank Bowl regardless of their outcome with Army this week.  We know for sure that Maryland will not be their opponent in a possible in-state rivalry game.  The Terps have final exams that week, and they will not accept a bowl bid during exam week.

 

Notre Dame will still be invited to a bowl at 6-6.  They will be the first 6-6 team invited as an at-large team.  I believe they will be headed to Houston.

 

1. Texas (at-large)-Notre Dame 6-6 vs. Rice

2. Eagle Bank-NAVY 7-5 vs. Miami (Fla.)

 

M A C

Ball State should handle Buffalo this week.  If they do, I expect the Motor City Bowl to make a deal with the WAC to release Boise State to come to Detroit in a battle of the unbeatens.  It will thus become the top non-BCS bowl.

 

The MAC will benefit from the failure of other conferences not being able to fulfill their bowl quotas.  Three more teams (Western Michigan, Central Michigan, and Buffalo) have seven wins, so there will be one extra bowl invitation for the MAC.  I have Western Michigan playing in an at-large bowl, but there is no news leaks about where they might be headed.  I have them headed west based on the fact that Boise State won’t be selected by the Poinsettia Bowl as they have that right.

 

1. Motor City-Ball State 13-0 vs. Boise State

2. International-Buffalo 8-5 vs. Connecticut

3. G M A C-Central Michigan 9-3 vs. Southern Miss.

4. Poinsettia (at-large)-Western Michigan 9-3 vs. T C U

 

Mountain West

Utah is officially a BCS bowl invitee.  It appears that they are headed to the Big Easy to play in the Sugar Bowl.

 

BYU has been to the Las Vegas Bowl the last three years, and I believe the folks in sin city will invite the Cougars a fourth consecutive time.  TCU is still a possibility, but in this time of economic turmoil, I’m guessing it will be a number’s game that comes up craps for the Frogs.

 

1. Sugar-Utah 12-0 vs. Alabama

2. Las Vegas-B Y U 10-2 vs. Arizona

3. Poinsettia-T C U 10-2 vs. Western Michigan

4. New Mexico-Colorado State 6-6 vs. Fresno State

5. Armed Forces-Air Force 8-4 vs. Houston

 

Pac-10

Oregon made the Rose Bowl officials happy when they defeated Oregon State.  Now Southern Cal needs to defeat UCLA to return to Pasadena for another game.

 

Arizona State can still become bowl-eligible with a win at Arizona, but I think the Wildcats have a huge revenge motive that will end the season for the Sun Devils.  Thus, I have the Pac-10 falling two spots shy of fulfilling its obligations.

 

 

1. Rose-Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Penn State

2. Holiday-Oregon 9-3 vs. Oklahoma State

3. Sun-Oregon State 8-4 vs. Rutgers

4. Las Vegas-Arizona 7-5 vs. B Y U

5. Emerald-California 8-4 vs. Wake Forest

6. Poinsettia-No qualifying team

7. Hawaii- No qualifying team

 

S E C

What happens if Florida beats Alabama in overtime or by one point in regulation?  Might there be a rematch in a month for the National Championship?  It’s not going to happen for two reasons.  First, a loss of any kind will put Alabama behind both Oklahoma and Texas.  Second, I believe Florida will win this week by double digits.  No matter which team loses, it will be headed to New Orleans.  A Florida-Utah game would be interesting because of Urban Meyer.

 

There is a rumor going around that the Capital One Bowl could take Ole Miss over Georgia.  I think that rumor has merits, but I don’t expect the Rebels to end up in Orlando.

 

1. National Championship-Florida 12-1 vs. Oklahoma

2. Sugar-Alabama 12-1 vs. Utah

3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Ohio State

4. Outback-South Carolina 7-5 vs. Michigan State

5. Cotton-Ole Miss 8-4 vs. Texas Tech

6. Chick-fil-a-L S U 7-5 vs. Georgia Tech

7. Music City-Vanderbilt 6-6 vs. North Carolina

8. Liberty-Kentucky 6-6 vs. Tulsa

9. Independence-No qualifying team

10. Papa John’s-No qualifying team

 

Sunbelt

Troy should beat Arkansas State this weekend to wrap up the SBC title.  They will be the only seven-win team in the league, but it is likely that two six-win teams will receive at-large bids.  The winner of the UL-Lafayette-Middle Tennessee game will likely wind up in Birmingham, while either Arkansas State or Florida Atlantic will take the Independence Bowl bid.  I’m guessing ASU will be picked over FAU.  Of course, if ASU beats Troy, they will head to New Orleans.  Troy would then head to Birmingham, and ULL or MTSU will end up in Shreveport.

 

1. New Orleans-Troy 8-4 vs. Memphis

2. Independence (at-large) Arkansas State 6-6 vs. La. Tech

3. Papa John’s (at-large) Middle Tennessee 6-6 vs. Pittsburgh

 

W A C

The Boise State-Ball State mini-dream game is still full of potential pitfalls.  The Humanitarian Bowl wants to host this game, but Ball State doesn’t want to play Boise State on the blue turf.  Boise State may think Detroit is too close to Muncie, Indiana.  The Independence Bowl has been mentioned as a possible site since it will have to find two at-large teams, but the Independence Bowl is supposed to take a Sunbelt team if they don’t have an SEC team.  Louisiana Tech is a great bet to be the other at-large team in Shreveport.  I believe the Motor City Bowl is the best option.  That will allow the Humanitarian Bowl to take Nevada and cause no further bowl interruptions.  If the big game ends up in Boise, then the ACC will have to be compensated.  They have more than enough eligible teams to meet their obligations. 

 

1. Motor City-Boise State 12-0 vs. Ball State

2. Humanitarian-Nevada 6-6 vs. Maryland

3. New Mexico-Fresno State 7-5 vs. Colorado State

4. Hawaii-Hawaii 7-6 vs. North Carolina State

5. Independence (at-large)-La. Tech 8-4 vs. Arkansas St.

 

 

PiRate Ratings For College Football–Week of November 25-29, 2008

NCAA Week 14: Oh What A Mess!!!

 

The conclusion of the 2008 FBS regular season begins this week and finishes next week.  There are multiple problems with the postseason as of now, and I don’t believe these problems will all be resolved by Saturday, December 6.

 

The national championship will produce controversy no matter which two teams are picked for the game.  Eight or more teams could conceivable have realistic arguments in favor of their being one of the final two.  The system is set up for failure, especially this season.  Except for 2005, this inept method of picking teams has “gotten it wrong” just about every season since its inception.

 

The non-BCS bowl situation couldn’t be more messed up today.  Six bowl will more than likely need at-large entries as the conferences which with they have agreements will not provide enough bowl eligible teams.  The poor Independence bowl will have to find two at-large teams unless a couple of miracle upsets occur this week.

 

NCAA Top 25 For 25-Nov-2008
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Florida	140	10	1
2	Oklahoma	133	10	1
3	Southern Cal	132	9	1
4	Texas	128	10	1
5	Ohio St.	127	10	2
6	Penn St.	125	11	1
7	Texas Tech	122	10	1
8	Missouri	121	9	2
9	Alabama	120	11	0
10	T C U	120	10	2
11	Georgia	119	9	2
12	Utah	118	12	0
13	Oregon State	118	8	3
14	Ole Miss	117	7	4
15	Iowa	117	8	4
16	Boise State	116	11	0
17	Oklahoma St.	115	9	2
18	Oregon	115	8	3
19	California	114	7	4
20	Ball State	113	11	0
21	Florida State	113	8	3
22	Rutgers	112	6	5
23	West Virginia	112	7	3
24	Cincinnati	111	9	2
25	South Carolina	111	7	4
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Florida State	5-3	8-3	113	70	43
Clemson	4-4	6-5	110	66	44
Boston College	4-3	8-3	108	65	43
N. Carolina State	3-4	5-6	106	70	36
Wake Forest	4-4	6-5	102	56	46
Maryland	4-3	7-4	100	61	39
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Virginia Tech	4-3	7-4	106	65	41
Georgia Tech	5-3	8-3	105	64	41
North Carolina	3-4	7-4	105	66	39
Miami	4-3	7-4	102	60	42
Virginia	3-4	5-6	100	58	42
Duke	1-6	4-7	93	60	33

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Rutgers	4-2	6-5	112	67	45
West Virginia	4-1	7-3	112	67	45
Cincinnati	5-1	9-2	111	65	46
Pittsburgh	3-2	7-3	108	65	43
Connecticut	3-3	7-4	105	65	40
South Florida	2-4	7-4	105	68	37
Louisville	1-5	5-6	96	59	37
Syracuse	1-5	3-8	89	56	33

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Ohio State	7-1	10-2	127	71	56
Penn State	7-1	11-1	125	76	49
Iowa	5-3	8-4	117	72	45
Wisconsin	3-5	7-5	107	71	36
Northwestern	5-3	9-3	105	64	41
Michigan State	6-2	9-3	104	64	40
Purdue	2-6	4-8	103	67	36
Illinois	3-5	5-7	102	65	37
Michigan	2-6	3-9	96	57	39
Minnesota	3-5	7-5	92	58	34
Indiana	1-7	3-9	79	54	25

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Missouri	5-2	9-2	121	75	46
Nebraska	4-3	7-4	109	70	39
Kansas	3-4	6-5	106	66	40
Colorado	2-5	5-6	94	56	38
Kansas State	2-6	5-7	92	67	25
Iowa State	0-8	2-10	86	57	29
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Oklahoma	6-1	10-1	133	90	43
Texas	6-1	10-1	128	82	46
Texas Tech	6-1	10-1	122	85	37
Oklahoma State	5-2	9-2	115	69	46
Baylor	2-5	4-7	104	66	38
Texas A&M	2-5	4-7	90	56	34

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Southern Miss.	3-4	5-6	97	64	33
East Carolina	5-2	7-4	94	59	35
Central Florida	3-4	4-7	92	50	42
Memphis	3-4	5-6	89	59	30
Marshall	3-4	4-7	87	56	31
U A B	2-5	3-8	80	51	29
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Tulsa	6-1	9-2	106	73	33
Houston	6-1	7-4	99	67	32
Rice	6-1	8-3	95	64	31
U T E P	4-3	5-6	91	61	30
S M U	0-7	1-10	78	57	21
Tulane	1-6	2-9	72	50	22

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Notre Dame		6-5	98	58	40
Navy		6-4	97	60	37
Army		3-8	86	49	37

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Buffalo	5-2	7-4	99	66	33
Bowling Green	3-4	5-6	98	66	32
Temple	3-4	4-7	94	57	37
Akron	3-4	5-6	91	62	29
Ohio U	2-5	3-8	89	49	40
Kent State	2-5	3-8	86	57	29
Miami (O)	1-6	2-9	83	55	28
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Ball State	7-0	11-0	113	74	39
Western Michigan	6-1	9-2	101	64	37
Northern Illinois	5-3	6-5	101	62	39
Central Michigan	6-1	8-3	100	68	32
Toledo	2-5	3-8	90	58	32
Eastern Michigan	1-6	2-9	84	55	29

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
T C U	7-1	10-2	120	68	52
Utah	8-0	12-0	118	70	48
Brigham Young	6-2	10-2	106	67	39
Air Force	5-3	8-4	95	58	37
Colorado State	4-4	6-6	93	60	33
New Mexico	2-6	4-8	93	56	37
UNLV	2-6	5-7	85	56	29
Wyoming	1-7	4-8	85	51	34
San Diego State	1-7	2-10	76	49	27

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Southern Cal	7-1	9-1	132	73	59
Oregon State	7-1	8-3	118	75	43
Oregon	6-2	8-3	115	73	42
California	5-3	7-4	114	72	42
Arizona	4-4	6-5	111	74	37
Stanford	4-5	5-7	106	64	42
Arizona State	3-4	4-6	105	64	41
U C L A	3-4	4-6	100	57	43
Washington	0-8	0-11	83	55	28
Washington State	1-8	2-10	73	49	24

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Florida	7-1	10-1	140	87	53
Georgia	6-2	9-2	119	73	46
South Carolina	4-4	7-4	111	65	46
Tennessee	2-5	4-7	105	61	44
Kentucky	2-5	6-5	104	63	41
Vanderbilt	4-4	6-5	102	57	45
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Alabama	7-0	11-0	120	68	52
Ole Miss	4-3	7-4	117	71	46
L S U	3-4	7-4	107	68	39
Auburn	2-5	5-6	106	58	48
Mississippi State	2-5	4-7	102	57	45
Arkansas	1-6	4-6	101	67	34

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Troy	5-1	7-4	104	68	36
Arkansas State	3-2	5-5	93	61	32
Middle Tennessee	3-3	5-6	92	58	34
Florida Atlantic	3-3	5-6	92	61	31
La.-Monroe	3-4	4-8	87	56	31
La.-Lafayette	4-2	5-6	86	64	22
Fla. International	3-3	4-6	84	55	29
* Western Ky.	0-0	2-9	82	51	31
North Texas	0-6	1-10	67	53	14
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009 Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Boise State	7-0	11-0	116	72	44
Nevada	4-3	6-5	102	73	29
Louisiana Tech	5-2	7-4	94	56	38
Hawaii	5-3	6-5	92	55	37
Fresno State	4-3	7-4	92	63	29
Utah State	2-5	2-9	88	55	33
San Jose State	4-4	6-6	85	53	32
New Mexico State	1-6	3-8	79	51	28
Idaho	1-7	2-10	73	57	16

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 25
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
BALL STATE	Western Michigan	15	38-23
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Navy	7	27-20
Thursday, November 27
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
TEXAS	Texas A&M	41	48-7
Friday, November 28
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
West Virginia	PITTSBURGH	1	21-20
OLE MISS	Mississippi State	18	27-9
Ohio U	MIAMI (O)	3	20-17
EAST CAROLINA	U t e p	6	30-24
TEMPLE	Akron	6	28-22
Central Michigan	EASTERN MICHIGAN	13	37-24
BUFFALO	Kent State	16	37-21
L s u	ARKANSAS	3	31-28
NEBRASKA	Colorado	18	35-17
Bowling Green	TOLEDO	5	31-26
BOISE STATE	Fresno State	27	44-17
ARIZONA STATE	U c l a	8	21-13
Saturday, November 29
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
ALABAMA	Auburn	17	20-3
TEXAS TECH	Baylor	21	49-28
Florida	FLORIDA STATE	24	42-18
Oklahoma	OKLAHOMA STATE	15	42-27
GEORGIA	Georgia Tech	17	34-17
North Carolina	DUKE	9	31-22
CINCINNATI	Syracuse	25	35-10
WAKE FOREST	Vanderbilt	3	13-10
CLEMSON	South Carolina	2	21-19
BOSTON COLLEGE	Maryland	11	28-17
N.C. STATE	Miami-Fl	7	28-21
VIRGINIA TECH	Virginia	9	23-14
TENNESSEE	Kentucky	4	20-16
Missouri        (Kansas City)	Kansas	15	35-20
MEMPHIS	Tulane	20	38-18
Arkansas State	NORTH TEXAS	23	44-21
Nevada	LA. TECH	5	35-30
Houston	RICE	1	35-34
UTAH STATE	New Mexico St.	12	28-16
Southern Miss.	S M U	16	41-25
Tulsa	MARSHALL	16	40-24
CENTRAL FLORIDA	U a b	15	21-6
FLA. ATLANTIC	Fla. International	11	35-24
OREGON STATE	Oregon	6	34-28
SOUTHERN CAL	Notre Dame	35	35-0
HAWAII	Washington State	23	33-10

 

This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 25
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Score
BALL STATE	Western Michigan	31-20
Navy	NORTHERN ILLINOIS	31-31 to OT
Thursday, November 27
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Score
TEXAS	Texas A&M	49-14
Friday, November 28
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Score
PITTSBURGH	West Virginia	27-24
OLE MISS	Mississippi State	28-10
Ohio U	MIAMI (O)	28-26
EAST CAROLINA	U t e p	38-30
TEMPLE	Akron	31-29
Central Michigan	EASTERN MICHIGAN	33-20
BUFFALO	Kent State	30-14
L s u	ARKANSAS	35-30
NEBRASKA	Colorado	44-27
Bowling Green	TOLEDO	30-27
BOISE STATE	Fresno State	41-19
ARIZONA STATE	U c l a	31-23
Saturday, November 29
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Score
ALABAMA	Auburn	30-7
TEXAS TECH	Baylor	52-26
Florida	FLORIDA STATE	35-21
Oklahoma	OKLAHOMA STATE	42-35
GEORGIA	Georgia Tech	37-28
North Carolina	DUKE	30-24
CINCINNATI	Syracuse	32-10
WAKE FOREST	Vanderbilt	17-12
CLEMSON	South Carolina	28-26
BOSTON COLLEGE	Maryland	31-21
Miami-Fl	N.C. STATE	31-28
VIRGINIA TECH	Virginia	21-12
TENNESSEE	Kentucky	17-16
Missouri        (Kansas City)	Kansas	42-28
MEMPHIS	Tulane	37-24
Arkansas State	NORTH TEXAS	38-21
Nevada	LA. TECH	38-35
RICE	Houston	35-34
UTAH STATE	New Mexico St.	27-22
Southern Miss.	S M U	34-21
Tulsa	MARSHALL	40-28
CENTRAL FLORIDA	U a b	24-14
FLA. ATLANTIC	Fla. International	38-33
OREGON STATE	Oregon	31-24
SOUTHERN CAL	Notre Dame	34-7
HAWAII	Washington State	42-23

 

 

Bowl Outlook by Conference

 

Another week of games have been played, and nothing was really determined bowl-wise.  Instead of knowing where some of the teams are headed, the picture is actually more clouded than it was last week.  A couple of teams were eliminated from the bowl picture, but we’re talking about UNLV and Illinois.  As we enter the Thanksgiving holiday, we only know for sure that Navy is in the inaugural Eagle Bank Bowl.  Penn State is all but assured of a spot in the Rose Bowl, but it isn’t official yet.

 

Teams in all CAPS have already accepted invitations to that bowl.

 

ACC

Another week, another couple of frontrunners are ripe for upset losses.  Miami and Maryland controlled their own destinies last week, but both were blown out.  Now Virginia Tech and Boston College have the easiest roads to the title game.  If the Eagles beat Maryland in Chestnut Hill this week, they are headed to Atlanta.  If Virginia Tech beats Virginia, the Hokies are joining the Eagles.

 

The overall mediocrity of this league actually could help the ACC get an extra team in the bowl discussion.  If North Carolina State beats Miami or Virginia beats Virginia Tech, the league will have 10 bowl eligible teams.  Should both the Wolfpack and Cavs win, then 11 of the 12 teams will be bowl eligible.

 

1. Orange Bowl-Boston College 10-3 vs. Cincinnati

2. Chick-fil-a-North Carolina 9-3 vs. South Carolina

3. Gator-Florida State 8-4 vs. Nebraska

4. Champs Sports-Virginia Tech 8-5 vs. Northwestern

5. Music City-Georgia Tech 8-4 vs. Vanderbilt

6. Meineke Car Care-Miami (Fla) 7-5 vs. West Virginia

7. Eagle Bank-Clemson 7-5 vs. NAVY

8. Emerald-Maryland 7-5 vs. Notre Dame

9. Humanitarian-Wake Forest 7-5 vs. Boise State

10. Texas (at-large)-N.C. State 6-6 vs. Southern Miss.

 

Big East

Cincinnati is a win away from securing a BCS Bowl bid, and it looks like they would be headed to Miami.  Coach Brian Kelly will be very popular Sunday morning if the Bearcats win, and he could be the head coach at a larger school before December 15.

 

Once Cincinnati wraps up the Orange Bowl berth, the dominoes should begin to fall.  I believe the bowls will possibly sacrifice won-loss record for distance.  With the economy in shambles, fans may be reluctant to travel great distances and spend a lot of money.  Thus, I am picking South Florida to stay at home for their bowl.  I am going with West Virginia to stay close to home.  I am sending Connecticut north of the border.

 

With Notre Dame losing to Syracuse, the Irish are no longer in the Gator Bowl picture, and I don’t think the Sun Bowl will be able to select them as the Big East representative because they will finish 6-6 and six Big East teams will win seven or more games. 

 

I have Louisville out of the picture.  The Cardinals have been a major disappointment for the second consecutive year.  Coach Steve Kragthorpe’s seat is getting hot.

 

1. Orange-Cincinnati 11-2 vs. Boston College

2. Sun-Pittsburgh 8-4 vs. Arizona

3. St. Petersburg-South Florida 7-5 vs. East Carolina

4. Meineke Car Care-West Virginia 8-4 vs. Miami (Fla)

5. International-Connecticut 8-4 vs. Buffalo

6. Papa John’s-Rutgers 7-5 vs. Middle Tennessee State

 

Big Ten

Illinois was eliminated from bowl contention last week, but I now have Ohio State slated to miss out on an at-large BCS bowl bid.  So, this league will have seven teams for seven bowls.

 

Even thought Minnesota fell mightily in November, I have the Gophers ahead of Wisconsin because it appears that the Badger fans do not plan on supporting their team en masse this year.  In a poll in the Milwaukee paper, a plurality of fans voted their opinion that UW should not even go to a bowl this year.

 

1. Rose-Penn State 11-1 vs. Oregon State

2. Capital One-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Georgia

3. Outback-Michigan State 9-3 vs. L S U

4. Champs Sports-Northwestern 9-3 vs. Virginia Tech

5. Alamo-Iowa 8-4 vs. Oklahoma State

6. Insight-Minnesota 7-5 vs. Kansas

7. Motor City-Wisconsin 7-5 vs. Ball State

 

Big 12

Missouri is definitely in the Big 12 Championship Game next week.  The other side of the league is still a three-team race.  If Oklahoma wins at Oklahoma State, then the Sooners should jump ahead of Texas in the BCS standings, even if the Longhorns beat Texas A&M 56-0.  If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then Texas Tech will back in to the title game if they beat Baylor.  I think Texas can only get into the Big 12 title game if Texas Tech loses to Baylor.  However, the Longhorns still have a chance to make it to the National Championship Game if Missouri beats Oklahoma in the conference title game and Southern Cal doesn’t jump ahead of them.

 

Colorado still has an outside chance of becoming bowl-eligible.  They have to win at Nebraska.  I don’t give the Buffs much chance of doing that, and I believe Coach Dan Hawkins is riding down a slippery slope in the Rockies.

 

The Cornhuskers may cut in line in the bowl pecking order.  The Gator Bowl will probably take them ahead of a 10-3 Missouri or 9-3 Oklahoma State team.

 

1. BCS National Championship-Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Florida

2. Fiesta-Texas 11-1 vs. Southern Cal

3. Cotton-Texas Tech 11-1 vs. Ole Miss

4. Gator-Nebraska 8-4 vs. Florida State

5. Holiday-Missouri 10-3 vs. California

6. Alamo-Oklahoma State 9-3 vs. Iowa

7. Insight-Kansas 6-6 vs. Minnesota

8. Independence-No Qualifying Team

9. Texas-No Qualifying team

 

C-USA

There is still unfinished business in this conference.  East Carolina has won the East Division, but the West is still a three-team race.  Tulsa has a tough road game at Marshall, while Houston plays across town at Rice.  If Rice and Tulsa finished ties, Tulsa wins.  If Tulsa loses to Marshall, the winner of the Rice-Houston game wins.  All three will go to bowls.

 

UTEP and Memphis must win their final games to become bowl-eligible.  Memphis has an easy game against lowly Tulane, but UTEP must play at East Carolina.  Should the Tigers lose, Coach Tommy West could be in trouble.

 

1. Liberty-Tulsa 11-2 vs. Kentucky

2. St. Petersburg-East Carolina 8-5 vs. South Florida

3. G M A C-Rice 8-4 vs. Central Michigan

4. Armed Forces-Houston 8-4 vs. Air Force

5. Texas-Southern Miss. 6-6 vs. N.C. State

6. New Orleans-Memphis 6-6 vs. Troy

 

Independent

Navy is the only team that definitely knows what bowl it will be playing in this year.  The Midshipmen have already accepted a bid to the first Eagle Bank Bowl. 

 

Notre Dame will still be invited to a bowl after USC slaughters them to drop them to 6-6.  They will be the first 6-6 team invited as an at-large team.  Whether they accept the bid is another story, but I’m selecting them here.

 

1. Emerald (at-large)-Notre Dame 6-6 vs. Maryland

2. Eagle Bank-NAVY 7-5 vs. Clemson

 

M A C

Ball State has a big home game with Western Michigan Tuesday night.  Then, they would have to beat Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game and hope Boise State, Alabama, and Southern Cal all lose just to have a minute chance at getting an at-large bid to a BCS bowl.  It looks like the Motor City Bowl is the best they can hope for.  I would love to see some arrangement made to pit a 13-0 Ball State team against a 12-0 Boise State team.  A lot of deals would have to be made.

 

Central and Western Michigan should easily receive bowl bids.  Buffalo is a virtually guaranteed a bowl as well thanks to them picking up their seventh win last week.

 

Northern Illinois will become the fifth bowl team if they defeat Navy.  Even if they lose, they could still have a shot at 6-6, since their fans travel well.

 

1. Motor City-Ball State 13-0 vs. Wisconsin

2. International-Buffalo 8-5 vs. Connecticut

3. G M A C-Central Michigan 9-3 vs. Rice

4. Hawaii (at-large)-Western Michigan 9-3 vs. Hawaii

 

Mountain West

Utah is officially a BCS bowl invitee.  It appears that they are headed to the Big Easy to play in the Sugar Bowl.

 

BYU has been to the Las Vegas Bowl the last three years, and I believe the folks in sin city will invite the Cougars a fourth consecutive time.  TCU is still a possibility, but in this time of economic turmoil, I’m guessing it will be a number’s game that comes up craps for the Frogs.

 

1. Sugar-Utah 12-0 vs. Alabama

2. Las Vegas-B Y U 10-2 vs. Oregon

3. Poinsettia-T C U 10-2 vs. Boise State

4. New Mexico-Colorado State 6-6 vs. Fresno State

5. Armed Forces-Air Force 8-4 vs. Houston

 

Pac-10

Oregon State won at Arizona, and now the Beavers need to take care of business at home against Oregon.  If they win, they head to the Rose Bowl for the first time in more than four decades!  They would get a chance to redeem themselves against Penn State.

 

Southern Cal could still climb up to second in the BCS if Oklahoma and Texas both lose again this season.

 

Arizona State could still become bowl eligible by beating both UCLA and Arizona.  It could happen, but for now I am picking Arizona to end that dream.

 

 

1. Rose-Oregon State 9-3 vs. Penn State

2. Fiesta (at-large) Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Texas

3. Holiday-California 8-4 vs. Missouri

4. Sun-Arizona 8-4 vs. Pittsburgh

5. Las Vegas-Oregon 8-4 vs. B Y U

6. Emerald-No qualifying team

6. Poinsettia-No qualifying team

7. Hawaii- No qualifying team

 

S E C

Florida continues to move farther and farther ahead of the pack in college football.  I have the Gators at least a touchdown ahead of any other team.

 

Alabama is still number one in the official polls.  What if the Crimson Tide destroys Auburn and loses to Florida in overtime on a missed two-point conversion?  Might we see the same two teams play again for the national title?  Could it happen?  I think the Gators will take ‘Bama by more than two touchdowns to make it a moot point.

 

Arkansas was eliminated from the bowl talk last week, and I expect Auburn to go away this week.  If Auburn fires Tommy Tuberville, the Tigers deserve to rot into the basement in the SEC West for years.  Tuberville is a class act, and he knows how to coach.  I don’t think there is a savior out there who can do any better.

 

Kentucky and Vanderbilt will probably both finish 6-6, and that presents a mismatch problem if Tulsa wins the C-USA title.  The Golden Hurricane would be a prohibitive favorite over both teams.  Might the Liberty Bowl decide to allow the Independence of Papa John’s Bowl to take one of these 6-6 and then go after an undefeated Ball State team as an at-large opponent?  It’s something to consider, but I believe the Wildcats will travel to Memphis.  If Rice wins the C-USA title, then Kentucky will definitely be the opponent, since Vandy has already played the Owls.

 

1. National Championship-Florida 12-1 vs. Oklahoma

2. Sugar-Alabama 12-1 vs. Utah

3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Ohio State

4. Outback-L S U 8-4 vs. Michigan State

5. Cotton-Ole Miss 8-4 vs. Texas Tech

6. Chick-fil-a-South Carolina 7-5 vs. North Carolina

7. Music City-Vanderbilt 6-6 vs. Georgia Tech

8. Liberty-Kentucky 6-6 vs. Tulsa

9. Independence-No qualifying team

10. Papa John’s-No qualifying team

 

Sunbelt

Troy has all but wrapped up the New Orleans Bowl berth.  It looks highly likely that no other SBC team will finish 7-5, but as many as three will finish 6-6.  Because I see at least four and possibly five 6-6 teams being required to fill out the at-large spots, two at-large bids could go to this league. 

 

The Sunbelt has side bets with three other bowls, and two of them will be needing to find alternative invitees.  So, I am going with the two teams I believe will travel the best here.

 

1. New Orleans-Troy 8-4 vs. Memphis

2. Independence (at-large) Arkansas State 6-6 vs. La. Tech

3. Papa John’s (at-large) Middle Tennessee 6-6 vs. Rutgers

W A C

Boise State should take care of business against Fresno State this week and finish the regular season at 12-0.  They won’t get a sniff at an at-large BCS bowl bid.  Their only hope is if Oregon State loses to Oregon, Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, Texas loses to Texas A&M, and Texas Tech loses to Baylor (or if Missouri wins the Big 12 title).

 

The WAC has a provisional agreement with the Poinsettia Bowl should the Pac-10 not have a team available.  They won’t this year, and that could allow Boise State to go there.  Economics may trump this theory as the Humanitarian Bowl will want the Broncos to stay home.  For now, I am selecting Boise to head south and west to play a better opponent than they would face on the blue field.

 

San Jose State looks like the odd man out this year, unless the Poinsettia Bowl would prefer them to Boise State.  Then, Nevada might be the odd man out.  If the Wolf Pack take care of business this week at Louisiana Tech, then they will take a bid away from a 6-6 team.

 

1. Poinsettia (at-large) Boise State 12-0 vs. T C U

2. Humanitarian-Nevada 6-6 vs. Wake Forest

3. New Mexico-Fresno State 7-5 vs. Colorado State

4. Hawaii-Hawaii 7-6 vs. Western Michigan

5. Independence (at-large)-La. Tech 8-4 vs. Arkansas St.