The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 21, 2014

PiRate Ratings College Football Playoffs and Bowls Coverage

For October 21, 2014

Note: You can find our award-winning ratings at http://www.piratings.webs.com

You can find numerous bowl projection sights on the Internet, so we see no reason to just put forth our projections like 100 others. The PiRate Ratings have always been a little different than other ratings. Our computer ratings use a system other than the actual scores of the games, using unique statistical data to come up with a truer score of every game before adjusting the ratings. Likewise, our bowl projections do not use the same criteria as other projectors.
We try to use our ratings to look forward and determine what the standings will look like on December 7. Then, we try to surmise the “political” nature of the bowls. For instance, you know that the ACC bowls would prefer to invite anybody other than Miami if they have a chance. When you cannot put 5,000 fans in your stadium for a home game against Cincinnati, another likely bowl team, it is not going to give a bowl like the Sun Bowl much faith that the Hurricanes will bring 20,000 fans to El Paso. Likewise, a 10-2 Auburn team is going to garner one of the big Bowl games not in the playoffs (Fiesta, Orange, Peach, or Cotton this year) before a 10-2 Washington team.

What we will do here is cover the bowls by conference. If you want to see the projections like 100 other sites, go to our website at the link below.
http://piratings.webs.com/bowlprojections.htm

Here is where we see the conferences and bowl possibilities for October 21, 2014.
Note: An Asterisk (*) means this is an at-large selection because the conference cannot meet its bowl tie-in obligation due to lack of bowl eligible team.

The Playoffs as we see it today

Sugar Bowl: #1 Ole Miss vs. #4 Ohio St.

Rose Bowl: #2 Florida St. vs. #3 Alabama

Group of 5 Conferences

American Athletic Conference
East Carolina controls its own destiny to become the first Group of 5 conference member to play in one of the Four New Year’s Eve/Day Big Bowls. At 11-1, the Pirates would top a 13-0 Marshall team. ECU has three potential possible upset games yet to play, but the Pirates are clearly better than anybody left on their schedule. Those three tough games to come are against Temple in Philadelphia on November 1; at Cincinnati on Thursday night, November 13; and a Thursday night regular season finale at home against Central Florida.

Central Florida should be on a roll when the Knights roll into Greenville for that big December 4 game. UCF should win nine games, and the Knights figure to be the second bowl selection out of the AAC.

Houston started the season with some trouble, but the Cougars have begun to play their best football of the season in the last few weeks. UH does not face ECU, so chances are slim that Coach Tony Levine’s team can sneak up and take the conference crown.

Cincinnati, Memphis, and Temple all should be bowl eligible, and there will be enough conference bids for all three.

1. Peach Bowl: East Carolina (vs. Notre Dame)
2. Birmingham Bowl: Memphis (vs. Kentucky)
3. St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida (vs. Miami)
4. Miami Beach Bowl: Cincinnati (vs. BYU)
5. Military Bowl: Temple (vs. Virginia)
6. Armed Forces Bowl: Houston (vs. Rutgers)

Conference USA
Marshall has a clear path to a 13-0 season, but the Thundering Herd still must get past UAB on the road and a possible tough Louisiana Tech team in the C-USA Championship Game. Marshall needs an ECU loss to occur in order to sneak into a possible Peach Bowl invitation.

Louisiana Tech appears to be the class of the West Division, but Bulldogs are no cinch with games still remaining against UAB on the road and Rice at home.

Middle Tennessee is on pace to win seven games and a mild upset over a swooning BYU Cougars team could lift that number to eight and make the Blue Raiders the third choice in the conference bowl pecking order.

The rest of the bowl invitations will go out to the three teams that can get to 6-6. As of today, we predict Rice, UAB, and Florida Atlantic will be those three teams. Failure to get three to 6-6 will help the Sunbelt or MAC.

1. Hawaii Bowl: Marshall (vs. Utah St.)
2. Bahamas Bowl: Louisiana Tech (vs. Toledo)
3. Boca Raton Bowl: Middle Tennessee (vs. Northern Illinois)
4. New Mexico Bowl: Rice (vs. Air Force)
5. Heart of Dallas Bowl: U A B (vs. Arkansas St. *)
6. Independence Bowl: Florida Atlantic * (vs. Georgia Tech)

Mid-American Conference
Toledo appears to be the top team at this point, but the Rockets are not a for-sure selection to win the MAC Championship, as there is some parity in the league this year.

Because there is not dominant team like an undefeated Northern Illinois team, there will definitely be many more bowl eligible teams than bowl spots. We foresee eight bowl eligible MAC teams with three not receiving bowl bids.

Politics and financial priorities will allow a team like Ohio to beat out Buffalo or Central Michigan if they all finish 7-5. Choosing between Ohio and Bowling Green will be tough, but we will take the Bobcats.

1. Bahamas Bowl: Toledo (vs. Louisiana Tech)
2. Boca Raton Bowl: Northern Illinois (vs. Middle Tennessee)
3. Idaho Potato Bowl: Akron (vs. Nevada)
4. Camellia Bowl: Western Michigan (vs. South Alabama)
5. Go Daddy Bowl: Ohio U (vs. Georgia Southern)

Mountain West Conference
Boise State’s upset loss to Air Force has kept the Broncos down at number three or four in the Group of 5 teams vying for the New Year’s Eve/Day bowl bid. The Broncos only other loss it to Ole Miss, which looks a lot better now than it did on August 28. BSU’s only bump in the road ahead is a home finale against Utah State on November 29.

Utah State, Colorado State, and Air Force are certainly going bowling from the Mountain Division. In the West Division, it looks like three teams could finish tied at 5-3. One of the three, Fresno State as of this week, is likely not to receive a bowl bid.

1. Las Vegas Bowl: Boise St. (vs. Stanford)
2. Poinsettia Bowl: Colorado St. (vs. Oregon St. *)
3. Hawaii Bowl: Utah St. (vs. Marshall)
4. New Mexico Bowl: Air Force (vs. Rice)
5. New Orleans Bowl: San Diego St. (vs. Louisiana-Lafayette)
6. Idaho Potato Bowl: Nevada (vs. Akron)

Sunbelt Conference
This is the only Group of Five conference with zero chance of having a team play in a New Year’s Eve/Day bowl. Georgia Southern had their chances, blowing second half leads to North Carolina State and Georgia Tech. The Eagles appear to be the class of the league this year, with Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State just behind. GSU does not play either team this year and should run the table in league play.

UL-Lafayette and Arkansas State should receive some form of bowl invitation, be it from a conference tie-in or as an at-large. (Note—this was written before these two teams faced off Tuesday night.)

South Alabama may finish a game or even two behind Louisiana-Monroe and may finished tied with Texas State, but the Jaguars figure to earn the Camellia Bowl bid just up the road in Montgomery with six or more wins.

Texas State could luck into an at-large bowl invitation, since it appears there will be some Lone Star State bowl games needing an at-large team.

1. Go Daddy Bowl: Georgia Southern (vs. Ohio U)
2. New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana-Lafayette (vs. San Diego St.)
3. Camellia Bowl: South Alabama (vs. Western Michigan)
4. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Arkansas St. * (vs. U A B)
5. Texas Bowl: Texas St. * (vs. Texas A&M)

Independents
For Notre Dame, please see the Atlantic Coast Conference

The Army artillery has come up a mile short of its target this year, so the Black Knights will once again fail to achieve bowl eligibility. The Navy’s ship is taking on water quickly and appears headed to the bottom of the ocean floor. Look for the Armed Forces and Poinsettia Bowls to look elsewhere.

BYU is sinking in quicksand since the loss of their star quarterback, but the Cougars already had enough wins in the bank to see bowl eligibility.

1. Miami Beach Bowl: B Y U (vs. Cincinnati)

Power 5 Conferences

Atlantic Coast Conference (& Notre Dame)
Florida State has two tiny hurdles left to cross before waltzing into the playoffs. The Seminoles play at Louisville a week from Thursday, and they will more than likely face Duke in the ACC Championship Game. FSU has the best chance of any FBS team of running the table this season.

Notre Dame might lose to USC, but we believe the Fighting Irish still earn a New Year’s Eve/Day bowl bid at 10-2. Clemson will not be so lucky if the Irish end up 10-2, for a 10-2 Tiger team would not get into one of the Big Six bowls.

Duke could repeat as Coastal Division champions, but the Blue Devils still appear to be a two to three touchdown underdog to FSU. Any of the six Coastal teams could finish bowl eligible, and we believe six of the seven will. The bowl representatives hope the one that doesn’t is Miami, but the Hurricanes have the look of a 6-6 team. This week, we select North Carolina to finish 5-7.

1. Rose Bowl: Florida St. (vs. Alabama)
2. Peach Bowl: Notre Dame (vs. East Carolina)
3. Russell Athletic Bowl: Duke (vs. Kansas St.)
4. Capital One Bowl ^: Clemson (vs. Mississippi St.)
5. Gator Bowl: Louisville (vs. South Carolina)
6. Belk Bowl: Virginia Tech (vs. Tennessee)
7. Sun Bowl: Pittsburgh (vs. Arizona St.)
8. Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College (vs. Penn St.)
9. Military Bowl: Virginia (vs. Temple)
10. Independence Bowl: Georgia Tech (vs. Florida Atlantic *)
11. Quick Lane Bowl: North Carolina St. (vs. Maryland)
12. St. Petersburg Bowl: Miami (vs. Central Florida

^: If a Big Ten team plays in the Orange Bowl as the SEC opponent, the Capital One Bowl can issue a bid to an ACC Team

Big Ten Conference
Michigan State and Ohio State are headed to a major clash in East Lansing on November 8, and the winner can back into a playoff spot if they win out and finish 12-1. Nebraska has a minor chance to sneak in if the Cornhuskers run the table and beat the Michigan State-Ohio State winner in the conference title game.

We have removed one team from the total here this week, as we now believe that Northwestern could lose to Purdue, and neither team will win six games. Indiana and Illinois appear to have too much left to do to get to six wins. Michigan is not even among the possibilities.

1. Sugar Bowl: Ohio St. (vs. Ole Miss)
2. Orange Bowl: Michigan St. (vs. Georgia)
3. Outback Bowl: Nebraska (vs. Auburn)
4. Holiday Bowl: Wisconsin (vs. Arizona)
5. Music City Bowl: Minnesota (vs. L S U)
6. San Francisco Bowl: Iowa (vs. U C L A)
7. Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State (vs. Boston College)
8. Quick Lane Bowl: Maryland (vs. North Carolina St.)
9. Armed Forces Bowl: Rutgers (vs. Houston)

Big 12 Conference
That hissing sound you heard the last two weeks was the sound of the Big 12 Conference balloon losing all its playoff air. TCU fell out of the picture when they blew a 21-point lead to Baylor. Then Baylor and Oklahoma fell out of the race with bad losses last week.

Kansas State could sneak into the picture if the Wildcats run the table, beating TCU and Baylor, both on the road. We don’t see that happening.

Because Texas and Texas Tech do not have favorable remaining schedules and appear to be headed to losing seasons, the Big 12 will only have six bowl eligible teams, and even though none will make the playoffs, two should earn Big Six bowl bids. That will leave two bowls Texas and Armed Forces) looking for at-large invitees.

1. Fiesta Bowl: T C U (vs. U S C)
2. Cotton Bowl: Baylor (vs. Oregon)
3. Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma (vs. Washington)
4. Russell Athletic Bowl: Kansas St. (vs. Duke)
5. Liberty Bowl: West Virginia (vs. Missouri)
6. Cactus Bowl: Oklahoma St. (vs. Utah)

Pac-12 Conference
It is going to be very tough for a Pac-12 team to make the playoffs this year. Oregon could do so by running the table, but the Ducks seem to have a defensive breakdown once a month, and we see one more loss in their future. Utah and Arizona still have just one loss, but we see multiple losses ahead for both.

USC may be the best team on the coast, but the Trojans have two losses and appear to have no chance to earn a spot in the playoffs. UCLA, Washington, Arizona State, Stanford, and Oregon State should join the others mentioned in a bowl. One will have to receive an at-large invitation, but there will be one available for sure.

1. Fiesta Bowl: U S C (vs. T C U)
2. Cotton Bowl: Oregon (vs. Baylor)
3. Alamo Bowl: Washington (vs. Oklahoma)
4. Holiday Bowl: Arizona (vs. Wisconsin)
5. San Francisco Bowl: U C L A (vs. Iowa)
6. Sun Bowl: Arizona St. (vs. Pittsburgh)
7. Las Vegas Bowl: Stanford (vs. Boise St.)
8. Cactus Bowl: Utah (vs. Oklahoma St.)
9. Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon St. * (vs. Colorado St.)

Southeastern Conference
The league everybody else likes to hate can seriously stake a claim to having the top four teams in the nation and possibly top five teams. We do not believe Florida State could finish in the top half of the West Division standings this year.

In fact, our Mean ratings this week have Ole Miss, Alabama, Auburn, and Mississippi State as the top four teams. The SEC will get no more than two teams into the playoffs, because the rest of the FBS leagues would pick up their marbles and go home if more than two make it.

Our ratings show Ole Miss to be the hands-down best team in the nation at the present time, and Alabama is right there just behind. Auburn lost at Mississippi State, and the Bulldogs are still undefeated, but our ratings believe the Maroon and White will lose to both Alabama and Ole Miss.

Georgia is the wildcard in the hunt, as the Bulldogs need only beat Auburn to avoid another loss. At 7-1/11-1, UGA is one win away from a playoff spot.

Last week, Kentucky showed signs of a possible upcoming swoon, where the Wildcats could have to claw to that sixth win. Tennessee will be looking at a November where the Vols must go 3-1, but the schedule gives the Orange and White four winnable November games.

South Carolina and Missouri have shown numerous weaknesses but both teams will become bowl eligible. LSU and Texas A&M will join this group in the lower pecking order.

Florida appears to be headed to a 5-6 season, and the cancelled game with Idaho will not be made up, so Will Muschamp will go out with consecutive losing seasons in Gainesville, and the Gators will look hard at trying to lure Art Briles away from Baylor. And, it will mean that there will be one bowl (Independence) available to another team as an at-large selection.

1. Sugar Bowl: Ole Miss (vs. Ohio St.)
2. Rose Bowl: Alabama (vs. Florida St.)
3. Orange Bowl: Georgia (vs. Michigan St.)
4. Capital One Bowl: Mississippi St. (vs. Clemson)
5. Outback Bowl: Auburn (vs. Nebraska)
6. Gator Bowl: South Carolina (vs. Louisville)
7. Music City Bowl: L S U (vs. Minnesota)
8. Liberty Bowl: Missouri (vs. West Virginia)
9. Texas Bowl: Texas A&M (vs. Texas St. *)
10. Belk Bowl: Tennessee (vs. Virginia Tech)
11. Birmingham Bowl: Kentucky (vs. Memphis)

Teams that should be bowl eligible but not invited to bowls: Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Fresno St., and Louisiana-Monroe

December 19, 2013

PiRate Ratings–2013-14 College Football Bowl Preview

The Bowl Simulator Returns

We were fortunate this week to get a turn on the master computer and simulate the 35 bowl games.  We simulated each bowl 100 times and will present the number of wins for both sides, the average score for both sides, and the outlier scores for both sides on all 35 games.

 

In addition, we will present the normal three PiRate Ratings, as well as viewing information so you can know when and where to tune in.

 

Simulated Playoffs

While we were at it, we simulated the PiRate Version of the NCAA playoffs, as well as the future actual version of four teams.  Check back for the results of those two tournaments on Friday afternoon.

 

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

New Mexico

12/21/2013

Albuquerque

2:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Colorado St. (7-6) vs. Washington St. (6-6)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Washington St. 74  Colorado St. 26

Average Score

Washington St. 33.9  Colorado St. 24.6

Outlier A

Washington St. 52-24

Outlier B

Colorado St. 38-33

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Washington St. by 6.9

PiRate Mean

Washington St. by 6.0

PiRate Bias

Washington St. by 6.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME—ET

TV

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

12/21/2013

Las Vegas

3:30pm

ABC

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Fresno St. (11-1) vs. USC (9-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

USC 68  Fresno St. 32

Average Score

USC 30.9  Fresno St. 26.6

Outlier A

USC 45 Fresno St. 24

Outlier B

Fresno St. 37 USC 21

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

USC by 10.7

PiRate Mean

USC by 7.3

PiRate Bias

USC by 10.1

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Famous Idaho Potato

12/21/2013

Boise, ID

5:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

San Diego St. (7-5) vs. Buffalo (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Buffalo 53  San Diego St. 47

Average Score

Buffalo 25.3  San Diego St. 24.2

Outlier A

Buffalo 34-10

Outlier B

San Diego St. 27-13

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Buffalo by 6.0

PiRate Mean

Buffalo by 9.2

PiRate Bias

Buffalo by 6.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

New Orleans

12/21/2013

New Orleans

9:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

UL-Lafayette (8-4) vs. Tulane (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Tulane 54  UL-Lafayette 46

Average Score

Tulane 27.4  UL-Lafayette 26.2

Outlier A

Tulane 35-13

Outlier B

UL-Lafayette 27-16

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Tulane by 2.8

PiRate Mean

Tulane by 4.7

PiRate Bias

Tulane by 3.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

12/23/2013

St. Petersburg

2:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

East Carolina (9-3) vs. Ohio (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

East Carolina 89  Ohio 11

Average Score

East Carolina 37.3  Ohio 22.7

Outlier A

East Carolina 61-20

Outlier B

Ohio 34-27

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

East Carolina by 19.9

PiRate Mean

East Carolina by 18.9

PiRate Bias

East Carolina by 20.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Hawaii

12/24/2013

Honolulu

8:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Boise St. (8-4) vs. Oregon St. (6-6)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Oregon St. 52  Boise St. 48

Average Score

Oregon St. 26.2  Boise St. 25.5

Outlier A

Oregon St. 38-20

Outlier B

Boise St. 40-24

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Oregon St. by 9.6

PiRate Mean

Oregon St. by 5.0

PiRate Bias

Oregon St. by 7.0

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Little Caesars Pizza

12/26/2013

Detroit

6:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Bowling Green (10-3) vs. Pittsburgh (6-6)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Bowling Green 60  Pittsburgh 40

Average Score

Bowling Green 33.9  Pittsburgh 29.7

Outlier A

Bowling Green 44-20

Outlier B

Pittsburgh 34-24

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Bowling Green by 11.0

PiRate Mean

Bowling Green by 13.3

PiRate Bias

Bowling Green by 12.5

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Poinsettia

12/26/2013

San Diego

9:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Utah St. (8-5) vs. Northern Illinois (12-1)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Utah St. 53  Northern Illinois 47

Average Score

Northern Illinois 32.7  Utah St. 32.4

Outlier A

Utah St. 42-21

Outlier B

Northern Illinois 48-20

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Utah St. by 3.8

PiRate Mean

Utah St. by 0.4

PiRate Bias

Utah St. by 4.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Military Bowl

12/27/2013

Washington, DC

2:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Maryland (7-5) vs. Marshall (9-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Marshall 54  Maryland 46

Average Score

Marshall 27.3  Maryland 26.7

Outlier A

Marshall 35-14

Outlier B

Maryland 27-10

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Marshall by 1.0

PiRate Mean

Marshall by 1.2

PiRate Bias

Marshall by 1.1

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Texas

12/27/2013

Houston

6:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Minnesota (8-4) vs. Syracuse (6-6)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Minnesota 59  Syracuse 41

Average Score

Minnesota 19.7  Syracuse 16.6

Outlier A

Minnesota 27-3

Outlier B

Syracuse 20-9

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Minnesota by 7.8

PiRate Mean

Minnesota by 13.1

PiRate Bias

Minnesota by 7.6

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

12/27/2013

San Francisco

9:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Washington (8-4) vs. BYU (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Washington 64  BYU 36

Average Score

Washington 29.4  BYU 25.5

Outlier A

Washington 31-13

Outlier B

BYU 28-18

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Washington by 10.6

PiRate Mean

Washington by 7.8

PiRate Bias

Washington by 10.1

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Pinstripe

12/28/2013

Bronx

12:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Rutgers (6-6) vs. Notre Dame (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Notre Dame 88  Rutgers 12

Average Score

Notre Dame 36.7  Rutgers 20.4

Outlier A

Notre Dame 48-7

Outlier B

Rutgers 28-22

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Notre Dame by 20.4

PiRate Mean

Notre Dame by 16.4

PiRate Bias

Notre Dame by 19.6

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Belk

12/28/2013

Charlotte

3:20pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Cincinnati (9-3) vs. North Carolina (6-6)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Cincinnati 52  North Carolina 48

Average Score

Cincinnati 27.0 North Carolina 26.2

Outlier A

Cincinnati 34-12

Outlier B

North Carolina 28-13

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

North Carolina by 2.1

PiRate Mean

North Carolina by 2.5

PiRate Bias

North Carolina by 3.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Russell Athletic

12/28/2013

Orlando

6:45pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Louisville (11-1) vs. Miami (9-3)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Miami 56 Louisville 44

Average Score

Miami 30.4  Louisville 27.2

Outlier A

Miami 38-20

Outlier B

Louisville 41-24

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Louisville by 0.5

PiRate Mean

Miami by 0.8

PiRate Bias

Louisville by 0.1

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

12/28/2013

Tempe, AZ

10:15pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Kansas St. (7-5) vs. Michigan (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Michigan 50 Kansas St. 50

Average Score

Michigan 25.6  Kansas St. 25.3

Outlier A

Michigan 38-17

Outlier B

Kansas St. 28-6

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Kansas St. by 0.8

PiRate Mean

Michigan by 6.7

PiRate Bias

Kansas St. by 0.5

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Armed Forces

12/30/2013

Ft. Worth, TX

11:45am

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Navy (8-4) vs. Middle Tennessee (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Navy 61  Middle Tennessee 39

Average Score

Navy 32.9  Middle Tennessee 27.1

Outlier A

Navy 40-21

Outlier B

Middle Tennessee 37-27

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Navy by 8.5

PiRate Mean

Navy by 5.9

PiRate Bias

Navy by 8.5

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Music City

12/30/2013

Nashville

3:15pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Ole Miss (7-5) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Ole Miss 73  Georgia Tech 27

Average Score

Ole Miss 38.2  Georgia Tech 29.7

Outlier A

Ole Miss 49-20

Outlier B

Georgia Tech 38-23

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Ole Miss by 6.4

PiRate Mean

Ole Miss by 3.8

PiRate Bias

Ole Miss by 5.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Alamo

12/30/2013

San Antonio

6:45pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Texas (8-4) vs. Oregon (10-2)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Oregon 84  Texas 16

Average Score

Oregon 43.7  Texas 28.4

Outlier A

Oregon 62-31

Outlier B

Texas 41-32

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Oregon by 6.6

PiRate Mean

Oregon by 10.2

PiRate Bias

Oregon by 7.7

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Holiday

12/30/2013

San Diego

10:15pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Arizona St. (10-3) vs. Texas Tech (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Arizona St. 78  Texas Tech 22

Average Score

Arizona St. 32.0  Texas Tech 24.7

Outlier A

Arizona St. 30-10

Outlier B

Texas Tech 27-19

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Arizona St. by 18.8

PiRate Mean

Arizona St. by 22.6

PiRate Bias

Arizona St. by 19.4

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

12/31/2013

Shreveport, LA

12:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Boston College (7-5) vs. Arizona (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Arizona 68  Boston College 32

Average Score

Arizona 25.6  Boston College 23.8

Outlier A

Arizona 35-17

Outlier B

Boston College 24-7

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Arizona by 12.6

PiRate Mean

Arizona by 8.6

PiRate Bias

Arizona by 10.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Sun

12/31/2013

El Paso, TX

2:00pm

CBS

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Virginia Tech (8-4) vs. UCLA (9-3)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

UCLA 82  Virginia Tech 18

Average Score

UCLA 31.3  Virginia Tech 21.6

Outlier A

UCLA 48-14

Outlier B

Virginia Tech 24-16

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

UCLA by 14.6

PiRate Mean

UCLA by 9.7

PiRate Bias

UCLA by 14.4

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Liberty

12/31/2013

Memphis

4:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Mississippi St. (6-6) vs. Rice (10-3)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Mississippi St. 57  Rice 43

Average Score

Mississippi St. 27.7  Rice 23.9

Outlier A

Mississippi St. 34-13

Outlier B

Rice 34-20

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Mississippi St. by 15.0

PiRate Mean

Mississippi St. by 5.3

PiRate Bias

Mississippi St. by 10.6

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Chick-fil-A

12/31/2013

Atlanta

8:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Duke (10-3) vs. Texas A&M (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Texas A&M 91  Duke 9

Average Score

Texas A&M 42.5  Duke 22.4

Outlier A

Texas A&M 56-10

Outlier B

Duke 34-29

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Texas A&M by 12.9

PiRate Mean

Texas A&M by 8.7

PiRate Bias

Texas A&M by 11.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Heart Of Dallas

1/1/2014

Dallas

12:00pm

ESPN-U

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

North Texas (8-4) vs. UNLV (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

North Texas 62  UNLV 38

Average Score

North Texas 28.2  UNLV 22.8

Outlier A

North Texas 38-17

Outlier B

UNLV 34-17

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

North Texas by 10.8

PiRate Mean

North Texas by 11.7

PiRate Bias

North Texas by 10.7

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Gator

1/1/2014

Jacksonville

12:00pm

ESPN-2

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Nebraska (8-4) vs. Georgia (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Nebraska 54  Georgia 46

Average Score

Nebraska 33.2  Georgia 33.0

Outlier A

Nebraska 41-23

Outlier B

Georgia 38-22

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Georgia by 9.3

PiRate Mean

Georgia by 9.0

PiRate Bias

Georgia by 10.7

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Outback

1/1/2014

Tampa

1:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

LSU (9-3) vs. Iowa (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

LSU 58  Iowa 42

Average Score

LSU 26.7  Iowa 24.3

Outlier A

LSU 31-10

Outlier B

Iowa 27-10

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

LSU by 13.7

PiRate Mean

LSU by 12.4

PiRate Bias

LSU by 14.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Capital One

1/1/2014

Orlando

1:00pm

ABC

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Wisconsin (9-3) vs. South Carolina (10-2)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

South Carolina 60  Wisconsin 40

Average Score

South Carolina 26.1  Wisconsin 23.7

Outlier A

South Carolina 34-14

Outlier B

Wisconsin 30-17

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

South Carolina by 0.8

PiRate Mean

South Carolina by 1.9

PiRate Bias

South Carolina by 0.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Rose

1/1/2014

Pasadena, CA

5:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Michigan St. (12-1) vs. Stanford (11-2)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Stanford 53  Michigan St. 47

Average Score

Stanford 23.7  Michigan St. 23.4

Outlier A

Stanford 27-7

Outlier B

Michigan St. 24-9

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Stanford by 8.9

PiRate Mean

Stanford by 2.6

PiRate Bias

Stanford by 8.2

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Fiesta

1/1/2014

Glendale, AZ

8:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Baylor (11-1) vs. Central Florida (11-1)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Baylor 94  Central Florida 6

Average Score

Baylor 43.6  Central Florida 20.8

Outlier A

Baylor 61-17

Outlier B

Central Florida 31-27

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Baylor by 21.1

PiRate Mean

Baylor by 11.6

PiRate Bias

Baylor by 21.4

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Sugar

1/2/2014

New Orleans

8:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Alabama (11-1) vs. Oklahoma (10-2)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Alabama 79  Oklahoma 21

Average Score

Alabama 30.1  Oklahoma 20.0

Outlier A

Alabama 34-7

Outlier B

Oklahoma 26-17

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Alabama by 17.0

PiRate Mean

Alabama by 18.5

PiRate Bias

Alabama by 17.5

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Cotton

1/3/2014

Arlington, TX

7:30pm

Fox

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Missouri (11-2) vs. Oklahoma St. (10-2)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Missouri 53 Oklahoma St. 47

Average Score

Missouri 29.9  Oklahoma St. 29.1

Outlier A

Missouri 41-22

Outlier B

Oklahoma St. 38-25

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Oklahoma St. by 4.3

PiRate Mean

Missouri by 1.9

PiRate Bias

Oklahoma St. by 4.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Orange

1/3/2014

Miami

8:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Clemson (10-2) vs. Ohio St. (12-1)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Ohio St. 76  Clemson 24

Average Score

Ohio St. 37.6  Clemson 29.4

Outlier A

Ohio St. 45-20

Outlier B

Clemson 34-26

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Ohio St. by 5.7

PiRate Mean

Ohio St. by 4.2

PiRate Bias

Ohio St. by 4.5

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

BBVA Compass Bowl

1/4/2014

Birmingham

1:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Vanderbilt (8-4) vs. Houston (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Houston 58  Vanderbilt 42

Average Score

Houston 27.4  Vanderbilt 25.8

Outlier A

Houston 34-17

Outlier B

Vanderbilt 38-23

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Vanderbilt by 3.8

PiRate Mean

Houston by 3.2

PiRate Bias

Vanderbilt by 2.2

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

GoDaddy.com

1/5/2014

Mobile, AL

9:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Ball St. (10-2) vs. Arkansas St. (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Ball St. 61  Arkansas St. 39

Average Score

Ball St. 32.7  Arkansas St. 27.0

Outlier A

Ball St. 40-21

Outlier B

Arkansas St. 33-14

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Ball St. by 11.2

PiRate Mean

Ball St. by 15.0

PiRate Bias

Ball St. by 12.2

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

BCS Championship

1/6/2014

Pasadena, CA

8:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Florida St. (13-0) vs. Auburn (12-1)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Florida St. 55  Auburn 45

Average Score

Florida St. 39.7  Auburn 38.8

Outlier A

Florida St. 49-24

Outlier B

Auburn 52-37

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Florida St. by 12.8

PiRate Mean

Florida St. by 17.2

PiRate Bias

Florida St. by 14.0

 

 

 

 

 

Notes:

Teams in Italics are at-large selections

 

1 Little Caesar’s Simulation went 4 OT

 

1 Belk Bowl Simulation went 3 OT

 

2 Gator Bowl Simulations went 3 OT

 

1 Cotton Bowl Simulation went 5 OT

 

1 National Championship Game went 3 OT

January 7, 2013

PiRate Ratings College Football National Championship Game Preview

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , — piratings @ 5:52 am

Monday, January 7, 2013

 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1)

 

Time: 8:30 PM EST

TV: ESPN

Location: Sun Life Stadium, Miami

Sun Life Stadium Forecast: Partly Cloudy and Humid, with Temperature in low 70’s, 10% Chance of Rain

 

Notre Dame (12-0)

Navy

50

10

 
Purdue

20

17

 
Michigan State

20

3

 
Michigan

13

6

 
Miami (Fla)

41

3

 
Stanford

20

13

 ot
B Y U

17

14

 
Oklahoma

30

13

 
Pittsburgh

29

26

 3 ot
Boston College

21

6

 
Wake Forest

38

0

 
Southern Cal

22

13

 

321

124

Average

26.8

10.3

Alabama (12-1)


Michigan

41

14

Western Kentucky

35

0

Arkansas

52

0

Florida Atlantic

40

7

Ole Miss

33

14

Missouri

42

10

Tennessee

44

13

Mississippi State

38

7

L S U

21

17

Texas A&M

24

29

Western Carolina

49

0

Auburn

49

0

Georgia

32

28

500

139

Average

38.5

10.7

 

 

 

PiRate: Alabama by 7.9

PiRate Vintage: Alabama by 2.0

 

Vegas Line: Alabama by 9 ½

Totals: 40 ½

Money Line:  Alabama -360  Notre Dame +300

 

100 Computer Simulations: Alabama 62  Notre Dame 38 (8 games went to OT)

Average Score: Alabama 19.4  Notre Dame 13.9

Standard Deviation: 8.3

Outlier ND: Notre Dame 22  Alabama 7

Outlier ALA: Alabama 38  Notre Dame 20

Outlier High: 64 points

Outlier Low: 9 points

 

PiRate Captain Says: Lay off this one.  The Standard Deviation on the sides and the totals makes this unplayable for the PiRates.  We would go with Alabama at -360 in the Money Line, but we never play a Money Line at those odds, and there are no games to combine into a parlay.  We would go with Notre Dame +10 ½ if the spread moved there, but we don’t have a play at 9 ½.  You could buy a half-point if you can find the game at +10.  Because the possibility of overtime is above average, we would be hesitant to play the Under.  A 17-17 tie at the end of regulation could become a 30-24 finish.

October 16, 2012

PiRate Ratings For College Football: October 16-20, 2012

Looking Ahead Conference by Conference

You see bowl projections in several places, but most of them simply place the teams in bowls by current place in the standings.  Today, we project the standings to where the ratings believe the teams will be on bowl selection day in December.  Then, we will slot the teams in bowls based on our logic and rationale.  We will use geography, the economic situation, and other data to slot teams as if we were inviting them for each bowl.

 

ACC

Florida State should run the table in the conference to win the ACC Atlantic, but we call for the Seminoles to lose to Florida.  In the Coastal Division, 5-3 should be good enough to win a spot in the conference title game.  For now, we give that to Miami, who would lose for a second time to the Seminoles.

 

1. BCS (Orange)—Florida State

2. Chick-fil-A—Clemson

3. Russell Athletic—North Carolina St.

4. Sun—Virginia Tech

5. Belk—Miami (Fla)

6. Indepdendence—Maryland

7. Music City—Duke

8. Military—No Available Team

 

Note: North Carolina is not eligible

 

Big East

Temple, Syracuse, and South Florida could conceivably get to six wins, but for now we say none of the three will do it.  That leaves the three currently undefeated teams as the only bowl eligible schools this year.  It could very well finish in a three-way tie at 6-1, and in that case, the highest ranked team would earn the BCS Bid.

 

1. BCS (Orange)—Rutgers

2. Russell Athletic—Cincinnati

3. Belk—Louisville

4. Pinstripe—No Available Team

5. BBVA Compass—No Available Team

6. Beef O’Brady’s—No Available Team

 

Big Ten

Ohio State and Penn State are not eligible, but we now see this conference supplying the eight teams they need to fulfill their bowl obligations.

 

1. Rose—Wisconsin

2. Capital One—Iowa

3. Outback—Michigan

4. Buffalo Wild Wings—Nebraska

5. Gator—Michigan St.

6. Meineke Car Care of Texas—Minnesota

7. Ticket City—Northwestern

8. Little Caesar’s—Purdue

 

Big 12

Oklahoma could very well win out, but Kansas State needs to lose twice for the Sooners to win the Big 12 Championship.  We believe both the Wildcats and Sooners will earn BCS Bowl Bids.

 

1. BCS (Fiesta)—Kansas State

2. BCS (Sugar)—Oklahoma

3. Cotton—West Virginia

4. Alamo—Texas

5. Buffalo Wild Wings—Texas Tech

6. Holiday—Oklahoma State

7. Meineke Car Care of Texas—T C U

8. Pinstripe—Iowa State

 

Conference USA

Tulsa and Central Florida look to be headed to a couple of games against each other, once in the regular season and once in the title game.  We’ll give the regular season contest to Tulsa, but the title game rematch to UCF.

 

1. Liberty—Central Florida

2. Hawaii—Tulsa

3. Armed Forces—Houston

4. Beef O’Brady’s—East Carolina

5. Ticket City—No Available Team
6. New Orleans—No Available Team

 

Independents

Notre Dame is almost assured of earning an automatic BCS bid.  BYU and Navy will definitely become bowl eligible and earn the spots reserved for them.  Army will not be able to attend their assigned bowl.

 

1. BCS At-large (Rose)—Notre Dame

2. Poinsettia—B Y U

3. Kraft Fight Hunger—Navy

4. Military—No Available Team

 

M A C

Ohio U is still undefeated, but the Bobcats seem to be misfiring in October.  We think they will fall in their season finale, which could very well cause the Bobcats to drop to second place in the MAC-East.  Kent State looks strong enough to win the East, while Bowling Green is not far behind.

 

In the MAC-West, Northern Illinois looks to be the class of the division, but Toledo is capable of taking the crown.  Ball State and Western Michigan could both finish 6-6 and be in contention for an at-large bowl bid. 

 

1. Little Caesar’s Pizza—Northern Illinois

2. GoDaddy.com—Ohio U

3. Famous Idaho Potato—Toledo

4. Ticket City (at-large)—Bowling Green

5. Beef O’Brady’s (at-large)—Kent State

6. BBVA Compass (at-large)—Ball State

 

Mountain West

Boise State now looks like a team capable of running the table.  At 11-1, the Broncos should finish ahead of a three-loss Wisconsin team that has an automatic BCS Bowl spot.  The rules state that if the top non-automatic qualifying conference champion finishes ahead of any automatic qualifier, they receive an at-large bowl bid.

 

1. BCS At-large (Fiesta)—Boise State

2. MAACO—Nevada

3. Poinsettia—Fresno State

4. Hawaii—Air Force

5. Armed Forces—San Diego State

6. New Mexico—New Mexico

 

Pac-12

If Oregon beats USC twice, then the Pac-12 could lose out on a second BCS Bowl Bid.  With Boise State and Notre Dame earning at-large bids, there would be room for just two at-large bids, which would go to Florida and Oklahoma.

 

1. BCS (National Championship Game)—Oregon

2. Alamo—Southern Cal

3. Holiday—Stanford

4. Sun—Arizona State

5. MAACO—Oregon State

6. Kraft Fight Hunger—Washington

7. New Mexico—Arizona

8. Pinstripe (at-large)—U C L A

 

S E C

For now, the SEC is 1-2 in the initial BCS poll.  However, for two SEC teams to play for the national title, Oregon and Kansas State must lose.  For now, we are sticking with the Ducks to run the table.

 

1. BCS (National Championship Game)—Alabama

2. BCS At-Large (Sugar)—Florida

3. Capital One—Georgia

4. Outback—South Carolina

5. Cotton—L S U

6. Chick-fil-A—Mississippi State

7. Gator—Texas A&M

8. Music City—Tennessee

9. Liberty—Ole Miss

10. BBVA Compass—Vanderbilt

11. Independence—No Available Team

 

Sunbelt

This looks to be an excellent three-way race for the championship, and it could end in a three-way tie.  We believe as many as six teams could be bowl eligible, and we can see four receiving bowls.

 

1. New Orleans—Western Kentucky

2. GoDaddy.com—UL-Lafayette

3. Military (at-large)—UL-Monroe

4. Independence (at-large)—Troy

 

W A C

Louisiana Tech just missed pulling off the big upset that could have propelled the Bulldogs to a BCS Bowl bid.  There will be three bowl eligible teams, and this league has just one automatic bid in its final season.  The other two teams will have seven wins or more, so they will get preference over any 6-6 teams.

 

Note: Texas State and UTSA are ineligible.

 

1. Famous Idaho Potato—Louisiana Tech

2. Military (at-large)—Utah State

3. New Orleans (at-large)—San Jose St.

 

*–We believe a deal could be struck that allows Louisiana Tech to go to a different bowl and send San Jose State to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.  Louisiana Tech could play in the Independence Bowl, but the Bulldogs could face a 12-1 MAC team somewhere.

 

The entire bowl predictions follow at the end after the ratings.

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

# Team PiRate
1 Alabama 133.4
2 Oklahoma 131.9
3 Oregon   126.7
4 South Carolina 126.0
5 Kansas St. 124.9
6 L S U   124.8
7 Notre Dame 124.2
8 Florida St. 123.3
9 Florida 123.0
10 U S C 122.1
11 Oklahoma St. 121.1
12 Georgia 120.1
13 Michigan 119.6
14 Texas A&M 118.8
15 Texas 117.6
16 Texas Tech 117.5
17 Clemson   115.9
18 Stanford 115.8
19 West Virginia 114.7
20 Nebraska 113.6
21 Oregon St. 113.2
22 T C U 113.1
23 Ohio St. 112.8
24 Wisconsin   112.5
25 Arizona St. 111.9
26 North Carolina 111.5
27 Iowa St. 110.6
28 U C L A 110.0
29 B Y U 109.9
30 Mississippi St. 109.9
31 Baylor 109.8
32 Tennessee 109.4
33 California 109.1
34 Arizona 108.6
35 Michigan St. 108.2
36 Missouri 107.9
37 Louisiana Tech   107.9
38 Rutgers 107.4
39 Utah 107.3
40 Ole Miss 107.2
41 Vanderbilt 106.5
42 Washington 106.2
43 Virginia Tech 105.9
44 Boise St. 105.7
45 Louisville 105.5
46 Auburn 104.0
47 Tulsa 103.9
48 North Carolina St. 103.8
49 Georgia Tech 103.7
50 Cincinnati 103.5
51 Arkansas 103.1
52 Penn St. 102.6
53 Purdue 102.2
54 Iowa 102.1
55 Northwestern 102.0
56 Central Florida 102.0
57 Utah St. 101.7
58 Fresno St. 100.7
59 Pittsburgh 100.6
60 Northern Illinois   100.6
61 South Florida 100.5
62 Duke 100.1
63 Louisiana-Monroe 99.9
64 Nevada 99.4
65 Miami-FL 99.3
66 Syracuse 99.0
67 Toledo 98.8
68 Western Kentucky 98.8
69 Maryland 98.2
70 Houston 98.2
71 San Diego St. 97.0
72 Kansas 96.9
73 San Jose St. 96.8
74 Boston College 96.6
75 Minnesota 96.4
76 Connecticut 96.3
77 Indiana 96.0
78 Western Michigan 95.7
79 Washington St. 95.5
80 East Carolina 95.2
81 Ball St. 95.1
82 Wake Forest 95.0
83 UL-Lafayette 94.7
84 Virginia 93.7
85 Bowling Green 93.7
86 S M U 93.3
87 Kent St. 93.3
88 Ohio U 93.2
89 Illinois 92.5
90 Marshall 92.3
91 Temple 91.9
92 Southern Mississippi   91.9
93 Wyoming 89.9
94 Arkansas St. 89.9
95 Navy 89.8
96 Troy 89.6
97 U T E P 89.5
98 Kentucky 88.8
99 Air Force 88.3
100 North Texas 87.4
101 New Mexico 87.3
102 Army 86.4
103 U A B 85.7
104 Rice 85.6
105 Middle Tennessee 84.6
106 Central Michigan 84.1
107 Miami (O) 83.9
108 Florida International 83.3
109 Buffalo 82.3
110 Colorado 81.8
111 UNLV 81.0
112 Eastern Michigan 80.7
113 Colorado St. 80.6
114 Hawaii 78.0
115 Texas St. 77.8
116 U T S A 77.7
117 Idaho 77.3
118 Akron 75.3
119 Florida Atlantic 75.2
120 Memphis 74.3
121 New Mexico St. 74.2
122 Tulane 72.7
123 South Alabama 72.5
124 Massachusetts 68.2

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Vintage Ratings

# Team Vintage
1 Alabama 128.5
2 Oregon 126.0
3 Florida  125.5
4 L S U 124.0
5 Notre Dame 123.5
6 S. Carolina 123.5
7 OhioState 121.5
8 Oregon St. 121.0
9 Kansas St. 120.0
10 Stanford 120.0
11 Oklahoma 119.5
12 U S C 119.5
13 Georgia  119.5
14 Michigan 119.5
15 Florida St. 118.5
16 Texas A&M 117.5
17 Arizona St. 116.5
18 Nebraska 116.5
19 Wisconsin 115.0
20 Miss.State 114.5
21 Texas Tech 114.5
22 Iowa 114.5
23 West Virginia 114.0
24 Clemson 113.5
25 N. Carolina 112.5
26 Ole Miss 112.5
27 Michigan St. 112.5
28 Cincinnati 111.5
29 N.C.State 111.5
30 Va. Tech 111.5
31 PennState 111.5
32 U C L A 111.0
33 Northwestern 109.5
34 Washington 109.5
35 Arkansas 109.5
36 Louisville 109.0
37 Texas 108.5
38 Tennessee 108.5
39 Boise St. 108.5
40 Arizona 107.5
41 Oklahoma St. 107.0
42 Rutgers 105.5
43 B Y U 105.0
44 Vanderbilt 105.0
45 T C U 104.5
46 Nevada 104.5
47 La. Tech 104.5
48 Indiana 104.5
49 Utah 104.0
50 Missouri 103.5
51 IowaState 103.0
52 Miami 103.0
53 California 102.5
54 Tulsa 102.0
55 Purdue 102.0
56 Utah St. 101.5
57 Duke 101.5
58 Temple 101.5
59 Minnesota 101.5
60 Maryland 101.0
61 Fresno St. 100.5
62 U C F 100.0
63 Syracuse 100.0
64 Auburn 100.0
65 WesternKy. 99.5
66 Baylor 99.5
67 U L M 99.0
68 Pittsburgh 99.0
69 S.D.State 98.5
70 Connecticut 98.5
71 U L L 98.0
72 N I U 98.0
73 Houston 97.5
74 Ohio U 97.0
75 S.J.State 97.0
76 Georgia Tech 96.0
77 Ark.State 95.0
78 Toledo 94.5
79 Virginia 94.5
80 Kent St. 94.0
81 S. Florida 94.0
82 Kentucky 94.0
83 E C U 93.5
84 Colorado 93.0
85 MTSU 92.5
86 Kansas 92.5
87 Troy 91.5
88 Washington St. 91.5
89 WakeForest 91.0
90 Marshall 91.0
91 UTSA 91.0
92 Navy 90.5
93 B G U 90.5
94 New Mexico 90.5
95 Texas St. 90.5
96 F I U 88.5
97 Air Force 88.0
98 U T E P 88.0
99 Illinois 88.0
100 Army 87.5
101 Sou. Miss. 87.5
102 Ball St. 87.0
103 Boston Coll. 86.5
104 W M U 85.0
105 UNLV 84.5
106 U A B 84.0
107 Wyoming 84.0
108 Rice 82.5
109 Miami (O) 82.5
110 N. Texas 82.5
111 S M U 82.0
112 C M U 81.5
113 Colo.State 80.0
114 Idaho 80.0
115 Akron 79.0
116 Hawaii 78.5
117 Memphis 77.0
118 Tulane 76.5
119 Buffalo 76.0
120 F A U 76.0
121 N. Mex.State 76.0
122 E M U 75.5
123 S. Alabama 73.5
124 U. Mass. 73.0

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Florida St. 3-1 6-1 123.3 118.5
Clemson   2-1 5-1 115.9 113.5
North Carolina St. 1-1 4-2 103.8 111.5
Maryland 2-0 4-2 98.2 101.0
Boston College 0-3 1-5 96.6 86.5
Wake Forest 1-3 3-3 95.0 91.0
         
Coastal Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
North Carolina 2-1 5-2 111.5 112.5
Virginia Tech 2-1 4-3 105.9 111.5
Georgia Tech 1-3 2-4 103.7 96.0
Duke 2-1 5-2 100.1 101.5
Miami-FL 3-1 4-3 99.3 103.0
Virginia 0-3 2-5 93.7 94.5
         
         
Conference Means 103.67   103.92 103.4

 

Big East Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Rutgers 3-0 6-0 107.4 105.5
Louisville 1-0 6-0 105.5 109.0
Cincinnati 1-0 5-0 103.5 111.5
Pittsburgh 0-3 2-4 100.6 99.0
South Florida 0-2 2-4 100.5 94.0
Syracuse 1-1 2-4 99.0 100.0
Connecticut 0-2 3-4 96.3 98.5
Temple 2-0 3-2 91.9 101.5
         
         
Conference Means 101.481   100.59 102.4

 

Big Ten
         
Leaders Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Ohio St. 3-0 7-0 112.8 121.5
Wisconsin   2-1 5-2 112.5 115.0
Penn St. 2-0 4-2 102.6 111.5
Purdue 0-2 3-3 102.2 102.0
Indiana 0-3 2-4 96.0 104.5
Illinois 0-3 2-5 92.5 88.0
         
Legends Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Michigan 2-0 4-2 119.6 119.5
Nebraska 1-1 4-2 113.6 116.5
Michigan St. 1-2 4-3 108.2 112.5
Iowa 2-0 4-2 102.1 114.5
Northwestern 2-1 6-1 102.0 109.5
Minnesota 0-2 4-2 96.4 101.5
         
Conference Means 107.375   105.04 109.7

 

Big 12
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Oklahoma 2-1 4-1 131.9 119.5
Kansas St. 3-0 6-0 124.9 120.0
Oklahoma St. 1-1 3-2 121.1 107.0
Texas 1-2 4-2 117.6 108.5
Texas Tech 2-1 5-1 117.5 114.5
West Virginia 2-1 5-1 114.7 114.0
T C U 2-1 5-1 113.1 104.5
Iowa St. 1-2 4-2 110.6 103.0
Baylor 0-2 3-2 109.8 99.5
Kansas 0-3 1-5 96.9 92.5
         
         
Conference Means 112.055   115.81 108.3

 

Conference USA
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Central Florida 2-0 4-2 102.0 100.0
East Carolina 3-1 4-3 95.2 93.5
Marshall 1-1 2-4 92.3 91.0
Southern Mississippi   0-2 0-6 91.9 87.5
U A B 0-2 1-5 85.7 84.0
Memphis 1-1 1-5 74.3 77.0
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Tulsa 4-0 6-1 103.9 102.0
Houston 2-0 3-3 98.2 97.5
S M U 1-1 2-4 93.3 82.0
U T E P 0-3 1-6 89.5 88.0
Rice 0-3 2-5 85.6 82.5
Tulane 1-1 1-5 72.7 76.5
         
         
Conference Means 89.4208   90.38 88.5

 

Independents
         
Team   Overall Rating Vintage
Notre Dame   6-0 124.2 123.5
B Y U   4-3 109.9 105.0
Navy   3-3 89.8 90.5
Army   1-5 86.4 87.5
         
         
Conference Means 102.1   102.58 101.6

 

Mid American Conference
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Bowling Green 2-1 4-3 93.7 90.5
Kent St. 3-0 5-1 93.3 94.0
Ohio U 3-0 7-0 93.2 97.0
Miami (O) 2-1 3-4 83.9 82.5
Buffalo 0-3 1-5 82.3 76.0
Akron 0-3 1-6 75.3 79.0
Massachusetts 0-3 0-6 68.2 73.0
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Northern Illinois   3-0 6-1 100.6 98.0
Toledo 4-0 6-1 98.8 94.5
Western Michigan 1-2 3-4 95.7 85.0
Ball St. 2-2 4-3 95.1 87.0
Central Michigan 0-2 2-4 84.1 81.5
Eastern Michigan 0-3 0-6 80.7 75.5
         
         
Conference Means 86.8615   88.07 85.7

 

Mountain West Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Boise St. 2-0 5-1 105.7 108.5
Fresno St. 2-1 4-3 100.7 100.5
Nevada 3-0 6-1 99.4 104.5
San Diego St. 2-1 4-3 97.0 98.5
Wyoming 0-2 1-5 89.9 84.0
Air Force 2-1 3-3 88.3 88.0
New Mexico 1-1 4-3 87.3 90.5
UNLV 1-1 1-6 81.0 84.5
Colorado St. 0-3 1-6 80.6 80.0
Hawaii 0-3 1-5 78.0 78.5
         
         
Conference Means 91.27   90.79 91.8

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Oregon   3-0 6-0 126.7 126.0
Stanford 2-1 4-2 115.8 120.0
Oregon St. 3-0 5-0 113.2 121.0
California 2-2 3-4 109.1 102.5
Washington 1-2 3-3 106.2 109.5
Washington St. 0-4 2-5 95.5 91.5
         
South Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
U S C 3-1 5-1 122.1 119.5
Arizona St. 3-0 5-1 111.9 116.5
U C L A 2-2 5-2 110.0 111.0
Arizona 0-3 3-3 108.6 107.5
Utah 0-3 2-4 107.3 104.0
Colorado 1-2 1-5 81.8 93.0
         
         
Conference Means 109.592   109.02 110.2

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
South Carolina 4-1 6-1 126.0 123.5
Florida 5-0 6-0 123.0 125.5
Georgia 3-1 5-1 120.1 119.5
Tennessee 0-3 3-3 109.4 108.5
Missouri 0-4 3-4 107.9 103.5
Vanderbilt 1-3 2-4 106.5 105.0
Kentucky 0-4 1-6 88.8 94.0
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Alabama 3-0 6-0 133.4 128.5
L S U   2-1 6-1 124.8 124.0
Texas A&M 2-1 5-1 118.8 117.5
Mississippi St. 3-0 6-0 109.9 114.5
Ole Miss 1-2 4-3 107.2 112.5
Auburn 0-4 1-5 104.0 100.0
Arkansas 2-2 3-4 103.1 109.5
         
         
Conference Means 113.175   113.06 113.3

 

Sunbelt Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Louisiana-Monroe 2-0 4-2 99.9 99.0
Western Kentucky 2-0 5-1 98.8 99.5
UL-Lafayette 2-0 4-1 94.7 98.0
Arkansas St. 2-1 4-3 89.9 95.0
Troy 2-2 3-3 89.6 91.5
North Texas 1-1 2-4 87.4 82.5
Middle Tennessee 2-1 4-2 84.6 92.5
Florida International 0-3 1-6 83.3 88.5
Florida Atlantic 0-3 1-5 75.2 76.0
South Alabama 0-2 1-5 72.5 73.5
         
         
Conference Means 88.595   87.59 89.6

 

Western Athletic Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Louisiana Tech   0-0 5-1 107.9 104.5
Utah St. 1-0 5-2 101.7 101.5
San Jose St. 0-1 4-2 96.8 97.0
Texas St. 1-0 3-3 77.8 90.5
U T S A 1-0 5-1 77.7 91.0
Idaho 1-1 1-6 77.3 80.0
New Mexico St. 0-2 1-5 74.2 76.0
         
         
Conference Means 89.5643   87.63 91.5

 

Here Are This Week’s Games

This Week’s Games
         
Favorite Underdog PiRate Vintage Line
Tuesday, October 16      
UL-Lafayette NORTH TEXAS 4.3 12.5 4   
         
Thursday, October 18      
Oregon ARIZONA ST. 11.3 6.0 9 1/2
Houston S M U 2.4 13.0 5   
         
Friday, October 19      
SYRACUSE Connecticut 5.7 4.5 4   
         
Saturday, October 20      
Nebraska NORTHWESTERN 8.6 4.0 4 1/2
WISCONSIN Minnesota 19.1 16.5 NL
Army EASTERN MICHIGAN 3.7 10.0 3   
Ball St. CENTRAL MICHIGAN 8.5 3.0 3 1/2
Bowling Green MASSACHUSETTS 23.5 15.5 17 1/2
Northern Illinois AKRON 22.8 16.5 14   
Georgia KENTUCKY 28.3 22.5 28   
VIRGINIA Wake Forest 1.7 6.5 4 1/2
North Carolina DUKE 9.4 9.0 10 1/2
North Carolina St. MARYLAND 2.6 7.5 3 1/2
Cincinnati TOLEDO 2.2 14.5 7   
GEORGIA TECH Boston College 10.1 12.5 14   
Rutgers TEMPLE 13.0 1.5 4   
AIR FORCE New Mexico 4.0 0.5 NL
San Jose St. U T S A 16.1 3.0 13 1/2
UTAH ST. New Mexico St. 30.5 28.5 30   
CLEMSON Virginia Tech 13.0 5.0 8 1/2
BOISE ST. U n l v 27.7 27.0 27 1/2
NOTRE DAME B y u 17.8 22.0 14   
Alabama TENNESSEE 20.5 16.5 20   
Stanford CALIFORNIA 4.7 15.5 2 1/2
ARIZONA Washington 5.4 1.0 7   
OHIO ST. Purdue 13.6 22.5 17   
MICHIGAN Michigan St. 13.4 9.0 10   
Indiana NAVY 3.2 11.0 -3 1/2
Texas Tech T C U 1.4 7.0 1 1/2
SOUTHERN CAL Colorado 44.3 30.5 41   
Florida St. MIAMI-FLA 22.0 13.5 17 1/2
OREGON ST. Utah 8.9 20.0 10 1/2
Kansas St. WEST VIRGINIA 6.7 2.5 -3   
L s u TEXAS A&M 3.0 3.5 3   
FLORIDA South Carolina 0.0 5.0 3   
VANDERBILT Auburn 5.0 7.5 7   
KENT ST. Western Michigan 0.1 11.5 3   
SOUTHERN MISS. Marshall 2.6 -0.5 2 1/2
Central Florida MEMPHIS 25.2 20.5 23 1/2
LOUISVILLE South Florida 8.0 18.0 7   
LOUISIANA TECH Idaho 34.1 28.0 31 1/2
OKLAHOMA ST. Iowa St. 13.5 7.0 13 1/2
OKLAHOMA Kansas 38.0 30.0 35   
TEXAS Baylor 10.3 11.5 10   
Pittsburgh BUFFALO 16.3 21.0 11   
East Carolina U A B 7.0 7.0 3 1/2
IOWA Penn St. 2.5 6.0 3   
TULSA Rice 21.3 22.5 21   
U T E P Tulane 19.8 14.5 16   
FRESNO ST. Wyoming 13.8 19.5 17 1/2
NEVADA San Diego St. 5.4 9.0 6 1/2
WESTERN KENTUCKY Louisiana-Monroe 1.9 3.5 2 1/2
MISSISSIPPI ST. Middle Tennessee 28.3 25.0 20 1/2
TROY Florida Int’l 9.3 6.0 7   
Florida Atlantic SOUTH ALABAMA 0.2 0.0 3   

 

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conference Team Conference Team
New Mexico MWC # 4/5 New Mexico Pac12 #7 / WAC Arizona
Famous Idaho Potato MAC #3 Toledo WAC #1/2 La. Tech
Poinsettia MWC #2 Fresno St. BYU/WAC B Y U
Beef O’Brady’s Big East #6 (Kent St.) C-USA #2-6 (4) East Carolina
New Orleans Sunbelt #1 Western Ky. C-USA #2-6 (5) (San Jose St.)
MAACO MWC #1 Nevada Pac 12 #5 Oregon St.
Hawaii MWC #3/Hawaii Air Force C-USA #2-6 (2) Tulsa
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8 Purdue MAC #1 Northern Illinois
Military ACC #8 (Utah St.) Army/CUSA (UL-Monroe)
Belk ACC #5 Miami-Fla Big East #3 Louisville
Holiday Pac 12 #3 Stanford Big 12 #5 Oklahoma St.
Independence ACC #6/7 (7) Maryland SEC #10 (Troy)
Russell Athletic Big East #2 Cincinnati ACC #3 North Carolina St.
Meineke Car Care of Texas Big 12 #6 T C U Big 10 #6 Minnesota
Armed Forces C-USA #3 Houston MWC #4-5 San Diego St.
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 12 #6 Washington Navy/ACC Navy
Pinstripe Big East #4 (U C L A) Big 12 #7 Iowa St.
Alamo Big 12 #3 Texas Pac 12 #2 Southern Cal
Buffalo Wild Wings Big 12 #4 Texas Tech Big 10 #4 or 5 Nebraska
Music City SEC # 7 Tennessee ACC #6 Duke
Sun ACC #4 Va. Tech Pac 12 #4 Arizona St.
Liberty SEC#8-9/BigEast Ole Miss C-USA #1 Central Florida
Chick-fil-A SEC #5 Miss. State ACC #2 Clemson
TicketCity Big 10 #7 Northwestern C-USA #2-6 (Bowling Green)
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Michigan St. SEC #6 Texas A&M
Capital One Big 10 #2 Iowa SEC #2 Georgia
Outback SEC #3 or 4 South Carolina Big 10 #3 Michigan
Rose BCS Pac12 Notre Dame BCS Big 10 Wisconsin
Orange BCS ACC Florida St. BCS At-Large Rutgers
Sugar BCS SEC Florida BCS At-Large Oklahoma
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Kansas St. BCS At-Large Boise St.
Cotton Big 12 #2 West Virginia SEC #3 or 4 L S U
BBVA Compass Big East#5/CUSA (Ball St.) SEC #8 or 9 Vanderbilt
GoDaddy.com Sunbelt # 2 UL-Lafayette MAC #2 Ohio U
National Championship *** BCS #1 *** Alabama *** BCS #2 *** Oregon

 

October 10, 2012

PiRate Ratings For College Football: October 11-13, 2012

The Bowl Conundrum

It is not yet a certainty, and it is still just a probability somewhere between slim and halfway decent, but big conference mediocrity combined with probation is rearing its ugly head this year.  What this means is that as many as nine bowl spots could need to be filled by at-large teams from smaller conferences.  Let’s take a look at some of these possibilities.

 

Atlantic Coast

Florida State has more than likely played itself out of the championship picture.  The Seminoles now are in danger of falling to second or even third place in the Atlantic Division.  With road games against Miami, Virginia Tech, and Maryland, if the ‘Noles lose just one of these three, Clemson could win out in conference play with a much easier remaining conference schedule.

 

In the Coastal, North Carolina is ineligible, and the Tar Heels could easily win the division, meaning the number two team would advance to the ACC Championship Game.  There are no really strong teams in this division.  Miami leads at 3-0, and Duke is second at 2-0, while Virginia Tech is 1-1.  One of these three will play in the conference title game, while the other two will be bowl eligible.

 

Besides FSU and Clemson, North Carolina State is the only other sure thing for bowl eligibility out of the Atlantic Division.  We give Maryland a 60% chance of winning six games, while Wake Forest and Boston College have little or no chance.

 

This leaves seven bowl eligible teams for eight bowl bids.  Let’s keep a running count of at-large teams needed to fill bowl spots.  This makes one.

 

Big East

Everybody is eligible, but two of the teams expected to compete for the conference championship have basically already played themselves out of the race and appear to be headed to losing records.  That eliminates South Florida and Pittsburgh. 

 

Rutgers, Cincinnati, and Louisville are still undefeated.  However, these three are the only teams with winning records so far.  Connecticut and Temple are both .500 teams with too many tough games remaining on their schedules.  Syracuse is 2-3, and the Orangemen are in the same boat as the UConn and Temple.  We do not see any of these three making it to six wins.  Temple only plays 11 games, so it is even tougher for the Owls.

 

We really only see the three current undefeated teams making it to bowl eligibility.  The Big East needs six bowl-eligible teams to fill their allotment of bowls, and we say they will fall three short.  This brings our at-large casting call to four.

 

Big Ten

Once again, this conference is greatly affected by having teams ineligible for bowls.  Ohio State could be in the national championship picture if they were eligible.  The Buckeyes could still claim the Associated Press title if they emerge at 12-0 at the end of November.  Penn State has won four straight games by impressive scores, and the Nittany Lions will continue to peg losses on conference teams.

 

There is a possibility that the third best Leaders Division team could make it to the Big Ten Championship Game.  At best, it will be the runner up.  This week’s Wisconsin-Purdue game in West Lafayette will probably decide whether that team is the Badgers or the Boilermakers.  For you Badger fans making the trip, be sure to stop at XXX just off campus to sample their great root beer, but get their early or you will wait a long time.

 

Neither Indiana nor Illinois figure to threaten the six-win mark, so only two teams from the Leaders will go bowling.  It isn’t impossible that Purdue could lose this week and not make it to 6-6.  We’re giving Coach Danny Hope the benefit of the doubt here.

 

The Legends division is too balanced to believe any team will beat all the other teams in the division.  Michigan may have the best shot, but the Wolverines have to visit Nebraska, and it won’t be easy winning the Little Brown Jug at Minnesota.  Due to the parity, there is a chance that all six in the Legends could finish bowl eligible.  We have to be lenient somewhere or there will not be 70 total bowl eligible teams.  So we will say that the Big Ten will produce eight bowl eligible teams and fill its allotment with no BCS at-large candidates to mess up the deal.  Our at-large requirement stays at four.

 

Big 12

Kansas State and West Virginia remain in the hunt for the National Championship Game, but we do not see either team running the table.  We believe both will lose at least one time.  West Virginia is going to arrive with a waiting ambush in Lubbock this weekend, and while we will not call for Texas Tech to pull the big upset, it wouldn’t surprise us if it happened.  Having to play back-to-back road games in the Lonestar State is not an easy task.  The Mountaineers host Kansas State the following week.  With games at Oklahoma State and at home against Oklahoma, we believe at least one conference team will outscore the Mountaineers.

 

Kansas State must play at West Virginia and still hosts Oklahoma State and Texas.  They better watch out this week, because Iowa State can pull off a big upset over a top ten team when hosting them at Jack Trice Stadium.  Ask Mike Gundy about that.

 

We see two teams currently with winning records failing to make it to six wins out of this league.  TCU is 4-1, but they have lost their quarterback for the season.  We believe the Horned Frogs are going to make a habit of losing and finish at 5-7.  Baylor is 3-1, but the Bears have a brutal schedule from here on out.  Road games at Texas, Iowa State, and Oklahoma combine with a neutral game against Texas Tech, and the home games against Kansas State and Oklahoma State are tough.  We can see Baylor dropping to 5-7 as well.

 

Even if Baylor wins a sixth game, it is likely to come at the expense of Texas Tech or Iowa State, and that could knock one of those teams to 5-7.  This looks like a seven bowl-bid league this year.  The Big 12 has seven bowl allotments, but we see a second team getting a BCS Bowl bid, so that leaves this league one team short.  This brings the at-large requirement to five.

 

Conference USA
This league is down this season.  Southern Mississippi is 0-5.  UTEP and Rice are 1-5.  Memphis, Tulane, and UAB are no better than UTEP and Rice.  Marshall is a disappointing 2-4 with at least three more losses looming ahead.  Houston and SMU are 2-3, and East Carolina is 3-3.  Only 5-1 Tulsa and 3-2 Central Florida look like locks to make it to seven wins.  We believe ECU, Houston, and SMU will recover by beating up on the seven weak-sisters to become bowl eligible.  That gives this league five teams to fill six bowl allotments.  Our at-large field grows to six.

 

Independents

Ironically, the teams not in conferences all have places to go if they win six or more games.  Notre Dame can steal from the Big East if they are bowl eligible, while Army, BYU, and Navy all have predetermined destinations if they are bowl eligible. 

 

At the moment, Notre Dame looks like a cinch to get to 10-2 or better, and that would place the Irish in a BCS Bowl.  BYU will definitely win at least eight games, so the Cougars have a reservation for December.  At the moment, we believe Army and Navy will fail to achieve six wins.  Navy could be 5-6 heading into the big season finale in Philadelphia, but it just may be Army’s year to end the losing streak in this rivalry.

 

We’ll say that both Army and Navy will fail to earn bowl bids, so that brings our at-large field requirement to eight.

 

Mid-American

Finally, we get to a league that will produce a surplus of bowl-eligible teams.  The MAC already has its first bowl-eligible team.  Ohio U is 6-0, but the Bobcats will not upset the apple cart and sneak into the BCS Bowl picture for two reasons.  Number one, their schedule just isn’t strong enough to move them high enough in the BCS standings, and number two, we do not believe Ohio can run the table.  If they get to 11-0, that final regular season game is at Kent State, and the Golden Flashes just may be a little bit too much to handle at Dix Stadium on a Friday night.  For Kent State, this looks like the year they finally get back to a bowl.  Their only other postseason game came 40 years ago.

 

Add Bowling Green to the East Division block of bowl-eligible teams.  The Falcons are currently 3-3, but with a relatively easy second half schedule, BGU should win five of their final six games to finish 8-4.  Miami of Ohio is 3-3 and looks to be headed to 6-6.  At 6-6, they will be out of the bowl picture as we see it.

 

In the West, Toledo, Northern Illinois, and Western Michigan could beat each other and finish in a three-way tie at 7-1.  Central Michigan is 2-3, but the Chippewas are in a similar boat as Bowling Green.  We see CMU winning five of their last seven to get to 7-5.  This brings the MAC to seven bowl eligible teams with seven or more wins.  This league only has three bowl allotments, so there could be as many as four at-large teams available for the nine expected at-large requirements.  We’ll expound on this later.

 

Mountain West

Here is another conference that figures to pick up more bowl games than they have been allotted.  Currently, Nevada and Fresno State are tied at the top with 2-0 league marks.  Boise State is 1/2-game back at 1-0.  Technically, UNLV is tied with Boise at 1-0, but they are 1-5 overall and headed to eight or nine losses.

 

San Diego State is 3-3 after playing a tough first half schedule.  The Aztecs should win four of their final six to get to seven wins.

 

Air Force has already lost to UNLV and a weaker than usual Navy team.  The Falcons are 2-3.  This week’s game at Wyoming is a must-win for the Academy, as is the following week’s contest at home against New Mexico.  Assuming they can win both games, they would then need to win at Army and beat Hawaii later in the season to get to 6-6.  It is a 50-50 probability.  If they cannot finish 6-6, then there will be room for one 6-6 at-large team.

 

New Mexico is the real surprise.  Bob Davie deserves the National Coach of the Year award if he can get the Lobos to a bowl after New Mexico has endured all the struggles of the last three years (3-33 overall with average score of 15-41).  Because the Lobos play 13 games this year, they have a decent shot of finishing 7-6.  They must beat Hawaii, UNLV, Wyoming, and Colorado State, to get there, or upset Air Force and win three of those others.

 

We will call for Air Force to win six and New Mexico to win seven, giving the MWC six bowl-eligible teams for four guaranteed bowl spots.  That brings the number of at-large available teams to six for the nine possible availabilities.

 

Pac-12

Oregon looks strong enough to run the table for the second time in three years.  We’ll give the Ducks a 12-0 record and send them to Miami to play for the title.  We also believe that at least one other team from among Southern Cal, Stanford, Oregon State, or Arizona State will finish with 10 wins and garner a BCS at-large bowl bid.  The others in this group will definitely finish with seven or more wins to head to a bowl.

 

Add to this group UCLA and Washington, which we feel will both finish 7-5.  Toss in Arizona and Utah to finish at 6-6.  That brings the total of bowl-eligible teams to nine including an extra bid to a BCS Bowl.  The Pac-12 only needs eight bowl teams including that extra bid, so one of the 6-6 teams could be on the outside looking in.  We’ll call Utah to be that unlucky team, but should Air Force not get to six wins, the Utes will get the nod over Miami of Ohio for the one available bid to an at-large six win team.

 

This keeps the number of at-large bowl bids needed at eight.

 

Southeastern

The League of Champions now has 10 bowl contracts, and because there is always a second BCS bowl bid from the SEC, there really are 11 spots available to SEC teams.

 

We are being generous today and will call for Alabama to run the table to face Oregon for the national title.  The Crimson Tide could most definitely lose a game along the way, because the rest of the schedule has some tough games.  They should have no problem at Missouri this week, but Tennessee is waiting in Knoxville the following week and may need to pull a big upset to keep the orange natives off Derek Dooley’s back.  A road game at LSU will not be easy, while home games against Mississippi State and Texas A&M will be no walks in the park.  Even if they go 12-0, the SEC Championship Game could come against another 12-0 team.

 

It will be quite interesting to see how South Carolina fares at LSU this week.  Should the Gamecocks win, that would set up a big battle of unbeatens the following week when they play at Florida.  The winner of that game would stand a very strong chance of running the table to 12-0.

 

There are so many quality teams in the middle of the pack.  LSU and Georgia are now looking at finishing somewhere in the second wave, while Mississippi State and Texas A&M are waiting to pull off one big upset and get into the New Year’s Day equation.  Tennessee has a brutal stretch in October, but once November arrives, the Vols should win four consecutive games to finish bowl eligible.

 

There is a group of four teams still in the hunt for six wins.  We believe two of the four will make it.  Ole Miss and Missouri are 3-3; Vanderbilt is 2-3, and Arkansas is 2-4.  At the moment, Ole Miss will need one upset to win six, and it would not surprise us to see the Rebels pull the upset at home over Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl. 

 

Missouri must still play Alabama at home and Tennessee, Florida, and Texas A&M on the road.  We don’t see the Tigers getting there this year.

 

Arkansas was supposed to be a national title contender prior to Bobby Petrino’s motorcycle accident.  Now, the Razorbacks face a huge uphill climb to get from 2-4 to 6-6.  The finishing schedule finds Arkansas playing Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tulsa, South Carolina, Mississippi State, and LSU.  Only Kentucky is a guaranteed win, and the Hogs need four wins.  We don’t see it happening.

 

That leaves Vanderbilt, long the whipping boy of the league.  The Commodores surprised folks at 6-6 last year and began this season 1-3 with the lone win coming against Presbyterian.  Winning at Missouri last week makes the Auburn game in two weeks the pivotal contest.  Should Vandy knock off the hapless War Eagles, they have winnable games remaining against Massachusetts, Kentucky, and Wake Forest.  6-6 would be possible again.

 

We will call for the SEC to produce 10 teams with six or more wins.  However, they need 11, and that moves the at-large bowl requirement to nine teams.

 

Sunbelt

This league is starting to make strides among the non automatic qualifying conferences.  Last year, three teams went to bowl, and a fourth bowl-eligible team failed to get an invite.  This year, we believe four teams will have seven or more wins again with two extras finishing 6-6.  Unlike 2011, we see all four 7+ win teams getting invites.

 

Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Western Kentucky are strong enough to compete against the 7-5 teams from the power conferences.  All three should win at least nine games this year.  Throw in a rejuvenated Troy team that should get to 7-5, and you have four worthy bowl teams for just two bowl allotments.  Because the SBC has secondary bowl agreements, expect four to bowl this year.

 

Western Athletic

This league will go out with a bang and not a whimper.  There are three very talented teams in this league (five if you count UTSA and Texas State which are not bowl eligible), and one team has an outside shot at sneaking into the BCS Bowl equation.

 

Louisiana Tech is 5-0 with wins over Houston, Illinois, and Virginia.  They face Texas A&M this week in Shreveport, and if the Bulldogs win, they have a chance to go 12-0.  At 12-0, they could move high enough into the BCS standings to steal a bid to the Orange Bowl.  For our sake of argument, we will call for LT to lose and finish 11-1 or even 10-2.

 

San Jose State was 1-12 two years ago, but the Spartans could go 9-3 or even 10-2 this year.  Utah State is 4-2 with enough winnable games remaining to finish 8-4.  The WAC has just two bowl agreements with three quality teams able to go bowling.

 

What It Means

With nine bowl spots failing to be filled by conference teams affiliated with those bowls, there will need to be nine at-large teams to fill those spots.

 

The Military Bowl and the Pinstripe Bowl will need to find two at-large teams each.  The other five bowls needing one at-large team will be the BBVA Compass, the Beef O’Brady’s the New Orleans, the Kraft Fight Hunger, and the Independence Bowls.

 

Here is how we see the nine at-large bowl spots distributed.

 

Military: Western Michigan and the lone 6-6 at-large selection (Air Force, Utah, Miami of Ohio, Arkansas State, or Middle Tennessee) 

 

Pinstripe: Utah State and Kent State (Utah State once played in the Gotham Bowl at the old Polo Grounds in New York.)

 

BBVA Compass: Central Michigan

 

Beef O’Brady’s: Troy

 

New Orleans: Bowling Green

 

Kraft Fight Hunger: San Diego St.

 

Independence: Louisiana-Lafayette

 

Here then is our first look at speculating the bowls for the 2012-13 season:

 

Bowl

Team 1

Team 2

New Mexico

New Mexico

Arizona

Famous Idaho Potato

Toledo

Louisiana Tech

Poinsettia

B Y U

Fresno St.

Beef O’Brady’s

(Troy) *

East Carolina

New Orleans

(Bowling Green) *

Western Kentucky

MAACO

Nevada

Washington

Hawaii

Houston

San Jose St.

Little Caesar’s Pizza

Northwestern

Ohio U

Military

(Western Michigan) *

(Air Force) *

Belk

Miami (Fl)

Rutgers

Holiday

Texas Tech

Oregon St.

Independence

Maryland

(Louisiana-Lafayette) *

Russell Athletic

North Carolina St.

Louisville

Meineke Car Care of Texas

Purdue

Iowa St.

Armed Forces

S M U

Boise St.

Kraft Fight Hunger

(San Diego St.) *

U C L A

Pinstripe

(Utah St.) *

(Kent St.) *

Alamo

Texas

Stanford

Buffalo Wild Wings

Wisconsin

Oklahoma St.

Music City

Duke

Tennessee

Sun

Virginia Tech

Arizona St.

Liberty

Central Florida

Ole Miss

Chick-fil-A

Clemson

Mississippi St.

TicketCity

Minnesota

Tulsa

Gator

Iowa

Texas A&M

Capital One

Michigan St.

South Carolina

Outback

Nebraska

Georgia

Rose

Michigan

Southern Cal

Orange

Florida St.

Cincinnati

Sugar

Kansas St.

Notre Dame

Fiesta

West Virginia

Florida

Cotton

Oklahoma

L S U

BBVA Compass

(Central Michigan) *

Vanderbilt

GoDaddy.com

Northern Illinois

Louisiana-Monroe

National Championship

Alabama

Oregon

 

Here are this week’s PiRate and PiRate Vintage Ratings

 

PiRate

#

Team

PiRate

1

Alabama

131.8

2

Oklahoma

127.7

3

Oregon  

126.7

4

South Carolina

126.3

5

Kansas St.

125.4

6

Notre Dame

124.9

7

L S U  

124.5

8

Oklahoma St.

123.1

9

Florida

123.0

10

U S C

122.4

11

Florida St.

122.0

12

Texas

121.5

13

Georgia

120.1

14

Texas A&M

119.0

15

West Virginia

118.5

16

Michigan

117.9

17

Clemson  

115.9

18

Stanford

115.1

19

Ohio St.

114.4

20

Texas Tech

114.2

21

Nebraska

113.6

22

Baylor

113.1

23

North Carolina

112.0

24

B Y U

111.3

25

Oregon St.

111.3

26

Arizona St.

110.6

27

Tennessee

110.4

28

Wisconsin  

110.1

29

T C U

110.1

30

U C L A

109.8

31

Iowa St.

109.6

32

Missouri

109.5

33

Michigan St.

109.1

34

Mississippi St.

108.8

35

California

108.7

36

Arizona

108.6

37

Rutgers

108.1

38

Utah

107.5

39

Louisiana Tech  

107.4

40

Vanderbilt

106.5

41

Washington

105.9

42

Auburn

105.8

43

Ole Miss

105.3

44

Boise St.

105.2

45

Virginia Tech

104.9

46

Louisville

104.9

47

Purdue

104.5

48

Cincinnati

104.1

49

North Carolina St.

103.8

50

Georgia Tech

103.7

51

Central Florida

103.7

52

Tulsa

103.4

53

Penn St.

102.6

54

Northwestern

101.6

55

Pittsburgh

101.2

56

Fresno St.

101.2

57

Duke

100.8

58

South Florida

100.5

59

Louisiana-Monroe

100.4

60

Iowa

100.3

61

Nevada

100.2

62

Arkansas

100.1

63

Utah St.

99.9

64

Toledo

99.5

65

Miami-FL

98.8

66

Western Kentucky

98.8

67

Syracuse

98.3

68

San Jose St.

98.3

69

BostonCollege

98.2

70

Northern Illinois  

98.2

71

Connecticut

97.7

72

Houston

97.6

73

Maryland

97.3

74

Minnesota

97.3

75

S M U

97.1

76

San Diego St.

96.3

77

Western Michigan

96.1

78

Washington St.

95.9

79

WakeForest

95.0

80

Ball St.

95.0

81

Kansas

94.9

82

Illinois

94.7

83

East Carolina

94.7

84

UL-Lafayette

94.7

85

Virginia

94.5

86

Indiana

93.9

87

Ohio U

93.9

88

Kentucky

92.8

89

Kent St.

92.5

90

Marshall

92.3

91

Bowling Green

92.0

92

Arkansas St.

91.2

93

Temple

90.5

94

Southern Mississippi  

90.2

95

Wyoming

90.2

96

U T E P

90.0

97

Troy

89.6

98

Air Force

88.0

99

North Texas

87.4

100

Army

87.2

101

Navy

86.8

102

Central Michigan

86.8

103

New Mexico

86.5

104

U A B

86.3

105

Miami (O)

85.6

106

Rice

84.5

107

Buffalo

84.3

108

Florida International

84.0

109

Middle Tennessee

83.6

110

Colorado

83.1

111

Colorado St.

81.3

112

UNLV

79.9

113

Eastern Michigan

79.7

114

Idaho

79.7

115

Hawaii

78.8

116

U T S A

78.8

117

Texas St.

75.1

118

Memphis

74.8

119

FloridaAtlantic

74.7

120

Akron

74.3

121

New Mexico St.

74.2

122

South Alabama

71.2

123

Tulane

70.2

124

Massachusetts

68.2

 

PiRate Vintage

#

Team

Vintage

1

Alabama

128.0

2

Oregon

125.5

3

Florida 

125.5

4

Notre Dame

125.0

5

S. Carolina

125.0

6

West Virginia

124.0

7

Kansas St.

123.5

8

L S U

121.0

9

Oklahoma

121.0

10

OhioState

120.0

11

Georgia 

119.5

12

U S C

118.5

13

Florida St.

118.0

14

Texas

118.0

15

Oklahoma St.

117.5

16

Michigan

117.0

17

Baylor

116.5

18

Texas A&M

115.0

19

Clemson

114.5

20

Miss.State

114.5

21

Nebraska

113.0

22

Arizona St.

113.0

23

Stanford

112.5

24

PennState

112.5

25

Cincinnati

112.0

26

N.C.State

111.5

27

B Y U

111.5

28

Michigan St.

111.5

29

Tennessee

111.0

30

Oregon St.

110.5

31

Rutgers

110.0

32

N. Carolina

109.0

33

Ole Miss

109.0

34

Texas Tech

109.0

35

Wisconsin

108.5

36

Louisville

108.0

37

Arizona

107.5

38

IowaState

107.0

39

Miami

107.0

40

Arkansas

107.0

41

La. Tech

106.0

42

Iowa

106.0

43

Vanderbilt

106.0

44

Boise St.

105.5

45

Duke

105.0

46

Fresno St.

105.0

47

Northwestern

105.0

48

Va. Tech

104.5

49

Purdue

104.5

50

Washington

104.5

51

Tulsa

104.0

52

T C U

104.0

53

U C L A

104.0

54

Minnesota

104.0

55

Missouri

104.0

56

Utah

103.5

57

S.J.State

103.0

58

California

102.5

59

Nevada

102.0

60

WesternKy.

101.5

61

Pittsburgh

101.5

62

U C F

101.5

63

U L M

101.0

64

U L L

100.5

65

Auburn

100.5

66

Toledo

99.5

67

Utah St.

99.5

68

Syracuse

99.5

69

Maryland

98.5

70

Temple

98.0

71

N I U

98.0

72

S.D.State

97.0

73

S M U

97.0

74

Indiana

97.0

75

Georgia Tech

97.0

76

Ohio U

96.5

77

Virginia

96.5

78

W M U

96.0

79

Connecticut

95.5

80

Houston

95.0

81

Kansas

95.0

82

UTSA

95.0

83

S. Florida

94.5

84

Colorado

94.5

85

Navy

94.0

86

Kentucky

94.0

87

Illinois

94.0

88

WakeForest

93.0

89

Washington St.

92.5

90

E C U

91.5

91

Ark.State

91.0

92

Kent St.

90.0

93

Marshall

90.0

94

MTSU

89.5

95

Texas St.

89.5

96

Boston Coll.

89.5

97

Troy

89.0

98

Miami (O)

89.0

99

B G U

88.5

100

Army

88.5

101

New Mexico

87.5

102

U T E P

87.0

103

Ball St.

86.5

104

Air Force

86.5

105

Sou. Miss.

86.5

106

F I U

84.5

107

C M U

84.0

108

U A B

84.0

109

Wyoming

83.5

110

UNLV

81.5

111

Hawaii

79.0

112

Memphis

78.5

113

Akron

78.5

114

Idaho

78.5

115

N. Texas

78.0

116

Colo.State

78.0

117

Rice

77.0

118

Buffalo

77.0

119

Tulane

75.5

120

F A U

75.5

121

E M U

75.5

122

N. Mex.State

74.5

123

S. Alabama

73.0

124

U. Mass.

73.0

 

Ratings by Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Florida St.

2-1

5-1

122.0

118.0

Clemson  

2-1

5-1

115.9

114.5

North Carolina St.

1-1

4-2

103.8

111.5

Boston College

0-2

1-4

98.2

89.5

Maryland

1-0

3-2

97.3

98.5

Wake Forest

1-3

3-3

95.0

93.0

       

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

North Carolina

1-1

4-2

112.0

109.0

Virginia Tech

1-1

3-3

104.9

104.5

Georgia Tech

1-3

2-4

103.7

97.0

Duke

2-0

5-1

100.8

105.0

Miami-FL

3-0

4-2

98.8

107.0

Virginia

0-2

2-4

94.5

96.5

       

 

       

 

Conference Means

103.79

 

103.91

103.7

 

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Rutgers

2-0

5-0

108.1

110.0

Louisville

0-0

5-0

104.9

108.0

Cincinnati

1-0

4-0

104.1

112.0

Pittsburgh

0-2

2-3

101.2

101.5

South Florida

0-2

2-4

100.5

94.5

Syracuse

1-0

2-3

98.3

99.5

Connecticut

0-1

3-3

97.7

95.5

Temple

1-0

2-2

90.5

98.0

 

 

 

   
 

 

 

   
Conference Means

101.519

 

100.66

102.4

 

 

Big Ten

         
Leaders Division      

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Ohio St.

2-0

6-0

114.4

120.0

Wisconsin  

1-1

4-2

110.1

108.5

Purdue

0-1

3-2

104.5

104.5

Penn St.

2-0

4-2

102.6

112.5

Illinois

0-2

2-4

94.7

94.0

Indiana

0-2

2-3

93.9

97.0

         
Legends Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Michigan

1-0

3-2

117.9

117.0

Nebraska

1-1

4-2

113.6

113.0

Michigan St.

1-1

4-2

109.1

111.5

Northwestern

1-1

5-1

101.6

105.0

Iowa

1-0

3-2

100.3

106.0

Minnesota

0-1

4-1

97.3

104.0

         
Conference Means

106.375

 

105.00

107.8

 

 

Big 12

         
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Oklahoma

1-1

3-1

127.7

121.0

Kansas St.

2-0

5-0

125.4

123.5

Oklahoma St.

0-1

2-2

123.1

117.5

Texas

1-1

4-1

121.5

118.0

West Virginia

2-0

5-0

118.5

124.0

Texas Tech

1-1

4-1

114.2

109.0

Baylor

0-1

3-1

113.1

116.5

T C U

1-1

4-1

110.1

104.0

Iowa St.

1-1

4-1

109.6

107.0

Kansas

0-2

1-4

94.9

95.0

         
 

 

 

   
Conference Means

114.68

 

115.81

113.6

 

 

Conference USA

East Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Central Florida

1-0

3-2

103.7

101.5

East Carolina

2-1

3-3

94.7

91.5

Marshall

1-1

2-4

92.3

90.0

Southern Mississippi  

0-1

0-5

90.2

86.5

U A B

0-1

1-4

86.3

84.0

Memphis

1-0

1-4

74.8

78.5

         
West Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Tulsa

3-0

5-1

103.4

104.0

Houston

1-0

2-3

97.6

95.0

S M U

1-0

2-3

97.1

97.0

U T E P

0-2

1-5

90.0

87.0

Rice

0-3

1-5

84.5

77.0

Tulane

0-1

0-5

70.2

75.5

         
         
Conference Means

89.6792

 

90.40

89.0

 

 

Independents

         
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Notre Dame  

5-0

124.9

125.0

B Y U  

4-2

111.3

111.5

Army  

1-4

87.2

88.5

Navy  

2-3

86.8

94.0

         
         
Conference Means

103.65

 

102.55

104.8

 

 

Mid American Conference

East Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Ohio U

2-0

6-0

93.9

96.5

Kent St.

3-0

4-1

92.5

90.0

Bowling Green

1-1

3-3

92.0

88.5

Miami (O)

2-0

3-3

85.6

89.0

Buffalo

0-2

1-4

84.3

77.0

Akron

0-2

1-5

74.3

78.5

Massachusetts

0-3

0-6

68.2

73.0

         
West Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Toledo

3-0

5-1

99.5

99.5

Northern Illinois  

2-0

5-1

98.2

98.0

Western Michigan

1-1

3-3

96.1

96.0

Ball St.

1-2

3-3

95.0

86.5

Central Michigan

0-2

2-3

86.8

84.0

Eastern Michigan

0-2

0-5

79.7

75.5

         
         
Conference Means

87.6192

 

88.16

87.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

         
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Boise St.

1-0

4-1

105.2

105.5

Fresno St.

2-0

4-2

101.2

105.0

Nevada

2-0

5-1

100.2

102.0

San Diego St.

1-1

3-3

96.3

97.0

Wyoming

0-1

1-4

90.2

83.5

Air Force

1-1

2-3

88.0

86.5

New Mexico

0-1

3-3

86.5

87.5

Colorado St.

0-2

1-5

81.3

78.0

UNLV

1-0

1-5

79.9

81.5

Hawaii

0-2

1-4

78.8

79.0

 

 

 

   
         
Conference Means

90.655

 

90.76

90.6

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Oregon  

3-0

6-0

126.7

125.5

Stanford

2-1

4-1

115.1

112.5

Oregon St.

3-0

4-0

111.3

110.5

California

1-2

2-4

108.7

102.5

Washington

1-1

3-2

105.9

104.5

Washington St.

0-3

2-4

95.9

92.5

         
South Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

U S C

2-1

4-1

122.4

118.5

Arizona St.

2-0

4-1

110.6

113.0

U C L A

1-2

4-2

109.8

104.0

Arizona

0-3

3-3

108.6

107.5

Utah

0-2

2-3

107.5

103.5

Colorado

1-1

1-4

83.1

94.5

         
         
Conference Means

108.108

 

108.80

107.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

South Carolina

4-0

6-0

126.3

125.0

Florida

4-0

5-0

123.0

125.5

Georgia

3-1

5-1

120.1

119.5

Tennessee

0-2

3-2

110.4

111.0

Missouri

0-3

3-3

109.5

104.0

Vanderbilt

1-2

2-3

106.5

106.0

Kentucky

0-3

1-5

92.8

94.0

         
West Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Alabama

2-0

5-0

131.8

128.0

L S U  

1-1

5-1

124.5

121.0

Texas A&M

2-1

4-1

119.0

115.0

Mississippi St.

2-0

5-0

108.8

114.5

Auburn

0-3

1-4

105.8

100.5

Ole Miss

0-2

3-3

105.3

109.0

Arkansas

1-2

2-4

100.1

107.0

         
         
Conference Means

112.996

 

113.14

112.9

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

         
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Louisiana-Monroe

1-0

3-2

100.4

101.0

Western Kentucky

1-0

4-1

98.8

101.5

UL-Lafayette

2-0

4-1

94.7

100.5

Arkansas St.

1-1

3-3

91.2

91.0

Troy

2-1

3-2

89.6

89.0

North Texas

1-1

2-4

87.4

78.0

Florida International

0-2

1-5

84.0

84.5

Middle Tennessee

1-1

3-2

83.6

89.5

Florida Atlantic

0-2

1-4

74.7

75.5

South Alabama

0-1

1-4

71.2

73.0

         
         
Conference Means

87.955

 

87.56

88.4

 

 

Western Athletic Conference

         
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Louisiana Tech  

0-0

5-0

107.4

106.0

Utah St.

0-0

4-2

99.9

99.5

San Jose St.

0-0

4-1

98.3

103.0

Idaho

1-0

1-5

79.7

78.5

U T S A

1-0

5-0

78.8

95.0

Texas St.

0-0

2-3

75.1

89.5

New Mexico St.

0-2

1-5

74.2

74.5

         
         
Conference Means

89.9571

 

87.63

92.3

 

 

This Week’s Games

This Week’s Games
         
Favorite Underdog PiRate Vintage Line
Thursday, October 11      
Arizona St. COLORADO 24.5 15.5 23   
TULSA U t e p 16.4 20.0 17   
Western Kentucky TROY 5.7 9.0 2 1/2
         
Friday, October 12      
CENTRAL MICHIGAN Navy 2.5 -7.5 1 1/2
         
Saturday, October 13      
Oklahoma (n) Texas 6.2 3.0 3 1/2
MICHIGAN ST. Iowa 11.8 8.5 10   
North Carolina MIAMI (FL) 10.2 -1.0 7   
BOWLING GREEN Miami (O) 8.9 2.0 7 1/2
Kent St. ARMY 2.3 4.5 1 1/2
OHIO U Akron 22.1 20.5 20 1/2
Toledo EASTERN MICHIGAN 17.8 22.0 13   
Maryland VIRGINIA 0.3 -0.5 -2   
VIRGINIA TECH Duke 7.1 2.5 10   
Wisconsin PURDUE 2.6 1.0 -2 1/2
Northwestern MINNESOTA 1.3 -2.0 3 1/2
RUTGERS Syracuse 12.3 13.0 7   
FLORIDA ST. Boston College 27.3 32.0 28   
CONNECTICUT Temple 10.2 0.5 5   
Louisville PITTSBURGH 0.7 3.5 3   
EAST CAROLINA Memphis 22.9 16.0 17 1/2
Florida VANDERBILT 13.5 16.5 8 1/2
WYOMING Air Force 4.7 -0.5 -2 1/2
BALL ST. Western Michigan 1.4 -7.0 3   
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Buffalo 16.9 24.0 12   
Idaho TEXAS ST. 2.1 -12.5 -2 1/2
Kansas St. IOWA ST. 12.8 13.5 7   
OLE MISS Auburn 2.5 11.5 6   
HOUSTON U a b 14.3 14.0 14   
MICHIGAN Illinois 26.2 26.0 23 1/2
BOISE ST. Fresno St. 7.0 3.5 7 1/2
Southern Cal WASHINGTON 13.5 11.0 11 1/2
B Y U Oregon St. 3.0 4.0 6   
Alabama MISSOURI 19.3 21.0 21 1/2
NOTRE DAME Stanford 13.3 16.0 8   
SAN JOSE ST. Utah St. 1.4 6.5 3 1/2
ARKANSAS Kentucky 10.3 16.0 17   
MISSISSIPPI ST. Tennessee 1.4 6.5 3   
L S U South Carolina 1.2 -1.0 2 1/2
California WASHINGTON ST. 9.8 7.0 7 1/2
West Virginia TEXAS TECH 0.8 12.0 3 1/2
BAYLOR T c u 5.5 15.0 8   
CENTRAL FLORIDA Southern Miss. 16.5 18.0 17   
Oklahoma St. KANSAS 25.2 19.5 24   
Ohio St. INDIANA 17.5 20.0 17   
S m u TULANE 24.4 19.0 15   
RICE U t s a 8.0 -16.0 3   
Nevada U N L V 18.3 18.5 NL
SAN DIEGO ST. Colorado St. 18.0 22.0 20 1/2
U C L A Utah 5.3 3.5 8   
New Mexico HAWAII 3.7 4.5 3 1/2
UL-MONROE Florida Atlantic 28.7 28.5 24   
ARKANSAS ST. South Alabama 23.0 21.0 21   
FLORIDA INT’L Middle Tennessee 3.4 -2.0 -3   
Texas A&M (n) Louisiana Tech 9.1 6.5 8   

October 3, 2012

PiRate Ratings For College Football: October 4-6, 2012

The Best Week of the Season

This first weekend of October shapes up to be the best week yet for college football.  Gone are the State U vs. Directional School U matchups we were forced to endure in September.  Conference play is underway in earnest, and this week, a host of excellent games will be available for viewing.

 

Starting at Noon Eastern Time, Northwestern visits Penn State, where a road win would put the Wildcats squarely in competition in the Legends Division race.  20 minutes later, two teams going in the wrong direction face off in a bowl elimination game.  1-4 Arkansas visits 1-3 Auburn, and the loser will definitely be headed to a sub-.500 finish.

 

At 3 PM Eastern, Duke hosts Virginia.  If the Blue Devils win, they will be 5-1 and just one win shy of bowl eligibility for the first time in 18 years.  With the rest of the Coastal Division being down this year, Coach David Cutcliffe could even sneak Duke into contention in the division.  A 6-2 record should win the Coastal, and while we don’t see Duke going 6-2, they could be 5-3, and if North Carolina wins the division at 6-2.  The key games will come against Miami and Virginia Tech.

 

At 3:30 PM Eastern, Oklahoma visits Texas Tech.  Quietly, Coach Tommy Tuberville has the Red Raiders waiting in ambush at 4-0, and a win over the Sooners would vault TTU up into serious contention in the Big 12.  Oklahoma had a week off following a home loss to Kansas State.

 

The first of two big SEC games starts at 3:30.  LSU and Florida are both undefeated, and the two powers face off at The Swamp in Gainesville.  LSU has not been playing up to potential, while Florida is starting to resemble Alabama.

 

A mediocre Wisconsin team hosts an even weaker Illinois team, but the winner will remain a co-contender in the Leaders Division of the Big Ten. 

 

At 4 PM Eastern, Purdue hosts Michigan.  If Purdue wins, the Boilermakers become the top contender for the Leaders Division and Michigan will be behind the “eight-ball.”  If Michigan wins, the Wolverines could move into first place by themselves in the Legends.

 

The evening kicks off with two 7PM games matching up undefeated teams.  In the Big 12, West Virginia visits Austin to take on Texas.  Geno Smith faces his stiffest test to date, as the Longhorns’ defense is the best one WVU will have faced.

 

In the SEC, Georgia visits South Carolina, and the Bulldogs will be going up against the first strong defensive team on their schedule.  The Gamecocks have been flying under the radar, and this game should be a bruising match.

 

Another 7 PM game finds Texas A&M visiting Ole Miss, and the winner will be a strong contender for a bowl game, possibly the Independence or Liberty Bowl.

 

At 7:30 PM Eastern, Miami and Notre Dame square off at Soldier Field in Chicago.  The Irish are 4-0 and a win over the Hurricanes will make the following week’s game against Stanford vitally important.  Notre Dame could be 7-0 when they visit Oklahoma in three weeks, and if the Irish can get by Miami, Stanford, and Oklahoma, only a regular season finale at USC would be in their way of competing for the National Championship Game.

 

At 8 PM Eastern, Nebraska visits Ohio State.  The Buckeyes can still win the AP National Championship if they run the table and end up the only undefeated team, but they are not eligible for postseason play.  A Nebraska win would give the Cornhuskers a major leg up on the competition in the Legends Division, while a loss throws the race wide open.

 

Also at 8 PM, Florida State visits North Carolina State.  The Wolf Pack have given the Seminoles fits in Raleigh in the last 15 years, and Florida State will expect to get NCSU’s best effort of the season.

 

The night ends with a 10:30 game in Eugene, Oregon.  The Washington Huskies, fresh off an upset of Stanford, play at Oregon.  We don’t expect UW to pull off another upset, but this game should show the nation (or that part that can stay awake) if the Ducks are worthy of mention with Alabama, Florida State, and the other two undefeated winners in the SEC.

 

The Woes of the Bone

In recent years, Army, Navy and Georgia Tech have been the torchbearers for the 21st century version of the wishbone offense.  The spread option (run & shoot formation) version of the ‘bone added the threat of four receivers at the line of scrimmage while keeping all but a few of the option and veer plays from the old wishbone formation.

 

Well, the ‘bone has been fractured this year.  Army has yet to win a game.  Navy has won just once and comes off a shutout loss at home to San Jose State.  Georgia Tech lost at home by three touchdowns to Middle Tennessee last week, and the Yellow Jackets saw the Sunbelt Conference opponent outrush them.  Tech has experienced a lot of difficulty punching the ball in the end zone inside their opponents’ five yard line.

 

The move to the passing game as the key weapon has changed the way defenses play the run.  Most teams now emphasize pass rushing over standard run-stopping, so they have quicker, more mobile defensive linemen and linebackers that can quickly drop into pass zones.  Against option teams, these defenders are preferable to the big defensive linemen that can eclipse the sun.

 

So, what it is the best way to run the ball these days?  Everything old is new again.  The big, smashing back, what used to be considered a fullback, has returned to prominence.  Teams are now looking for the Jim Brown, Larry Csonka, Marion Motley, John Riggins-type backs that can get two yards on 3rd and one almost 100% of the time and can take a small opening in the line and turn a line plunge or off-tackle slant into a seven-yard gain.  Teams with two tight ends and one back are hurting defenses with the dual threat of power running and quick passing.  Tight ends are now the hot commodity in football, and if a tight end can block a linebacker and also run a 10-yard route and catch the ball, his future as a pro is set.  This was the type of football of the mid-1960’s, when teams like Alabama and Notre Dame excelled at this type of offense.  So, as you watch this week’s games, look at how the top offensive teams move the ball.  Even the zone read, which retains some option feel, really uses the dual threat of horizontal passing with straight-ahead power running, proves this point.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

An interesting thing happened this past weekend.  All the top teams that played took a step backward in the predictive ratings.  Oklahoma, which did not play, barely moved at all (less than a tenth of a point), and somehow the Sooners moved up to number two.  Florida State, LSU, Oregon, and Texas all slid back enough.  As a result, Alabama has now opened a 6.1 point lead over the number two team in the ratings.  The last time our number one team was more than six points better than the number two team was December of 2001, when Miami of Florida held a 6.2 point lead over Tennessee and 6.4 point lead over Oregon.  This occurred following the Friday afternoon massacre in Boulder, Colorado, when the Buffs blew out number one team Nebraska 62-36, and Tennessee beat Florida the next week in the makeup games from 9/11.  Miami won the national title, but Oregon’s showing in the Fiesta Bowl brought the final gap to less than six points.

 

 

PiRate Regular

#

Team

PiRate

1

Alabama

131.8

2

Oklahoma

125.7

3

Florida St.

125.4

4

L S U  

125.2

5

Oregon  

124.3

6

Texas

123.7

7

U S C

123.6

8

Kansas St.

123.3

9

Oklahoma St.  

123.1

10

Georgia

122.8

11

South Carolina

122.6

12

Florida

122.2

13

Notre Dame

121.4

14

Texas A&M

119.8

15

Texas Tech

116.5

16

Nebraska

116.4

17

Stanford

116.3

18

Clemson  

115.6

19

West Virginia

115.0

20

Michigan

114.9

21

U C L A

113.4

22

Baylor

113.1

23

B Y U

112.5

24

T C U

112.4

25

Oregon St.

112.1

26

Missouri

111.3

27

North Carolina

111.2

28

Ohio St.

111.1

29

Arizona St.

110.6

30

Tennessee

110.4

31

Michigan St.

110.2

32

Wisconsin  

110.1

33

Auburn

109.0

34

Mississippi St.

108.1

35

Purdue

107.9

36

Iowa St.

107.8

37

Rutgers

107.7

38

Washington

107.6

39

Arizona

107.4

40

Louisiana Tech  

107.3

41

Utah

106.6

42

Virginia Tech

106.3

43

California

105.1

44

Louisville

104.9

45

Vanderbilt

104.7

46

Cincinnati

104.4

47

Georgia Tech

104.2

48

Ole Miss

104.2

49

South Florida

104.0

50

Northwestern

103.6

51

Boise St.

103.5

52

Tulsa

103.2

53

Central Florida

102.7

54

Nevada

102.7

55

Miami-FL

102.0

56

Pittsburgh

101.7

57

Boston College

101.1

58

North Carolina St.

100.8

59

Iowa

100.3

60

Louisiana-Monroe

100.1

61

Fresno St.

99.7

62

Penn St.

99.6

63

Toledo

99.5

64

Utah St.

99.2

65

Northern Illinois  

99.0

66

Western Kentucky

98.8

67

San Jose St.

98.3

68

Duke

98.1

69

Connecticut

98.0

70

Syracuse

97.8

71

Virginia

97.6

72

Arkansas

97.5

73

Minnesota

97.3

74

Maryland

96.8

75

Kansas

96.7

76

Houston

96.1

77

East Carolina

95.7

78

Ohio U

95.6

79

Wake Forest

95.5

80

Illinois

94.7

81

S M U

94.6

82

Washington St.

94.6

83

Western Michigan

94.4

84

UL-Lafayette

94.0

85

Ball St.

93.9

86

San Diego St.

93.8

87

Kentucky

93.5

88

Indiana

92.8

89

Marshall

92.5

90

U T E P

92.5

91

Bowling Green

92.0

92

Southern Mississippi   

91.9

93

Kent St.

89.8

94

Troy

89.6

95

Arkansas St.  

89.1

96

Wyoming

89.0

97

North Texas

88.9

98

Air Force

88.8

99

Temple

88.0

100

Rice

87.6

101

Miami (O)

87.1

102

Central Michigan

86.8

103

Florida Int’l

86.6

104

Navy

86.0

105

New Mexico

85.3

106

Army

84.9

107

U A B

84.5

108

Middle Tennessee

83.9

109

Buffalo

83.1

110

Colorado

83.1

111

Eastern Michigan

83.0

112

Colorado St.

82.8

113

Hawaii

81.0

114

UNLV

80.0

115

Idaho

79.4

116

U T S A

78.8

117

Texas St.

76.3

118

Florida Atlantic

74.7

119

New Mexico St.

74.5

120

Akron

74.3

121

Memphis

72.2

122

Tulane

71.2

123

South Alabama

71.2

124

Massachusetts

69.9

 PiRate Vintage

The Vintage Rating is a little more retrodictive than the standard PiRate Rating.  It looks more like the standard polls, but we still consider it more predictive than retrodictive.  Because this rating relies on factors totally separate from the standard rating, there tends to be larger swings than the regular ratings.  Four of the top five in this week’s poll hail from the SEC.

 

 

#

Team

Vintage

1

Alabama

126.0

2

Oregon

124.0

3

Georgia 

123.5

4

Florida 

123.0

5

L S U

122.5

6

Florida St.

122.0

7

U S C

121.0

8

Texas

119.5

9

Notre Dame

118.5

10

West Virginia

118.0

11

Arizona St.

118.0

12

Oregon St.

117.5

13

S. Carolina

116.5

14

Kansas St.

116.5

15

Clemson

116.0

16

OhioState

116.0

17

Nebraska

115.5

18

Stanford

115.0

19

Miami

114.0

20

Oklahoma

114.0

21

U C L A

114.0

22

Miss.State

113.5

23

Oklahoma St.

113.5

24

Washington

113.5

25

Cincinnati

113.0

26

N. Carolina

113.0

27

T C U

113.0

28

Texas A&M

112.0

29

Michigan St.

112.0

30

Tennessee

111.0

31

Missouri

110.5

32

Rutgers

110.0

33

Va. Tech

110.0

34

Michigan

110.0

35

Baylor

109.5

36

Louisville

108.0

37

Auburn

108.0

38

Arizona

108.0

39

Iowa

107.5

40

Texas Tech

107.5

41

N.C.State

107.0

42

Northwestern

107.0

43

La. Tech

107.0

44

Pittsburgh

106.5

45

Wisconsin

106.0

46

Utah

106.0

47

S. Florida

105.5

48

Ole Miss

105.5

49

Utah St.

105.5

50

B Y U

105.0

51

S.J.State

105.0

52

Duke

103.5

53

Nevada

103.5

54

Tulsa

103.0

55

Purdue

103.0

56

Fresno St.

103.0

57

IowaState

102.5

58

California

102.0

59

Maryland

101.5

60

PennState

101.0

61

Boston Coll.

100.5

62

WesternKy.

100.5

63

U C F

100.0

64

U L M

100.0

65

U L L

99.5

66

Boise St.

99.0

67

Connecticut

98.5

68

Virginia

98.5

69

Georgia Tech

97.5

70

MTSU

97.5

71

E C U

97.0

72

Ohio U

97.0

73

Syracuse

96.5

74

Arkansas

96.0

75

N I U

95.5

76

Minnesota

95.5

77

S.D.State

95.5

78

Vanderbilt

95.0

79

Houston

95.0

80

Toledo

95.0

81

S M U

94.5

82

Temple

94.0

83

Colorado

94.0

84

Marshall

93.0

85

Kansas

93.0

86

WakeForest

92.5

87

Kentucky

92.5

88

Troy

92.5

89

UTSA

92.0

90

Washington St.

92.0

91

Kent St.

91.5

92

Sou. Miss.

91.0

93

Illinois

91.0

94

W M U

90.0

95

Indiana

90.0

96

U A B

89.5

97

Air Force

89.0

98

U T E P

88.5

99

Texas St.

88.5

100

Ark.State

88.0

101

Miami (O)

88.0

102

Navy

87.5

103

B G U

87.0

104

C M U

86.0

105

New Mexico

85.0

106

F I U

83.5

107

Ball St.

83.5

108

Army

83.0

109

Rice

81.5

110

N. Texas

80.5

111

UNLV

80.5

112

Akron

80.0

113

Buffalo

79.0

114

Colo.State

79.0

115

E M U

77.5

116

Hawaii

77.5

117

U. Mass.

76.0

118

Wyoming

76.0

119

Memphis

75.5

120

N. Mex.State

75.0

121

F A U

74.0

122

Tulane

73.5

123

S. Alabama

72.5

124

Idaho

70.0

 

 

The Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Florida St.

2-0

5-0

125.4

122.0

Clemson  

1-1

4-1

115.6

116.0

Boston College

0-2

1-3

101.1

100.5

North Carolina St.

0-1

3-2

100.8

107.0

Maryland

0-0

2-2

96.8

101.5

Wake Forest

1-2

3-2

95.5

92.5

       

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

North Carolina

0-1

3-2

111.2

113.0

Virginia Tech

1-0

3-2

106.3

110.0

Georgia Tech

1-2

2-3

104.2

97.5

Miami-FL

3-0

4-1

102.0

114.0

Duke

1-0

4-1

98.1

103.5

Virginia

0-1

2-3

97.6

98.5

       

 

       

 

Conference Means

105.44

 

104.55

106.3

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Rutgers

1-0

4-0

107.7

110.0

Louisville

0-0

5-0

104.9

108.0

Cincinnati

1-0

3-0

104.4

113.0

South Florida

0-1

2-3

104.0

105.5

Pittsburgh

0-1

2-2

101.7

106.5

Connecticut

0-0

3-2

98.0

98.5

Syracuse

0-0

1-3

97.8

96.5

Temple

0-0

1-2

88.0

94.0

 

 

 

   
 

 

 

   
Conference Means

102.406

 

100.81

104.0

 

Big Ten

         
Leaders Division      

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Ohio St.

1-0

5-0

111.1

116.0

Wisconsin  

0-1

3-2

110.1

106.0

Purdue

0-0

3-1

107.9

103.0

Penn St.

1-0

3-2

99.6

101.0

Illinois

0-1

2-3

94.7

91.0

Indiana

0-1

2-2

92.8

90.0

         
Legends Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Nebraska

1-0

4-1

116.4

115.5

Michigan

0-0

2-2

114.9

110.0

Michigan St.

0-1

3-2

110.2

112.0

Northwestern

1-0

5-0

103.6

107.0

Iowa

1-0

3-2

100.3

107.5

Minnesota

0-1

4-1

97.3

95.5

         
Conference Means

104.725

 

104.91

104.5

 

Big 12

         
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Oklahoma

0-1

2-1

125.7

114.0

Texas

1-0

4-0

123.7

119.5

Kansas St.

1-0

4-0

123.3

116.5

Oklahoma St.

0-1

2-2

123.1

113.5

Texas Tech

1-0

4-0

116.5

107.5

West Virginia

1-0

4-0

115.0

118.0

Baylor

0-1

3-1

113.1

109.5

T C U

1-0

4-0

112.4

113.0

Iowa St.

0-1

3-1

107.8

102.5

Kansas

0-1

1-3

96.7

93.0

         
 

 

 

   
Conference Means

113.215

 

115.73

110.7

 

Conference USA

East Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Central Florida

0-0

2-2

102.7

100.0

East Carolina

2-0

3-2

95.7

97.0

Marshall

1-0

2-3

92.5

93.0

Southern Mississippi  

0-1

0-4

91.9

91.0

U A B

0-1

0-4

84.5

89.5

Memphis

0-0

0-4

72.2

75.5

         
West Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Tulsa

2-0

4-1

103.2

103.0

Houston

1-0

1-3

96.1

95.0

S M U

0-0

1-3

94.6

94.5

U T E P

0-1

1-4

92.5

88.5

Rice

0-2

1-4

87.6

81.5

Tulane

0-1

0-4

71.2

73.5

         
         
Conference Means

90.2792

 

90.39

90.2

 

Independents

         
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Notre Dame  

4-0

121.4

118.5

B Y U  

3-2

112.5

105.0

Navy  

1-3

86.0

87.5

Army  

0-4

84.9

83.0

         
         
Conference Means

99.85

 

101.20

98.5

 

Mid American Conference

East Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Ohio U

1-0

5-0

95.6

97.0

Bowling Green

0-1

2-3

92.0

87.0

Kent St.

2-0

3-1

89.8

91.5

Miami (O)

2-0

3-2

87.1

88.0

Buffalo

0-1

1-3

83.1

79.0

Akron

0-1

1-4

74.3

80.0

Massachusetts

0-2

0-5

69.9

76.0

         
West Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Toledo

2-0

4-1

99.5

95.0

Northern Illinois  

1-0

4-1

99.0

95.5

Western Michigan

0-1

2-3

94.4

90.0

Ball St.

1-1

3-2

93.9

83.5

Central Michigan

0-1

2-2

86.8

86.0

Eastern Michigan

0-1

0-4

83.0

77.5

         
         
Conference Means

87.4769

 

88.34

86.6

 

Mountain West Conference

         
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Boise St.

1-0

3-1

103.5

99.0

Nevada

1-0

4-1

102.7

103.5

Fresno St.

1-0

3-2

99.7

103.0

San Diego St.

0-1

2-3

93.8

95.5

Wyoming

0-0

1-3

89.0

76.0

Air Force

1-1

2-2

88.8

89.0

New Mexico

0-1

2-3

85.3

85.0

Colorado St.

0-1

1-4

82.8

79.0

Hawaii

0-1

1-3

81.0

77.5

UNLV

1-0

1-4

80.0

80.5

 

 

 

   
         
Conference Means

89.73

 

90.66

88.8

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Oregon  

2-0

5-0

124.3

124.0

Stanford

1-1

3-1

116.3

115.0

Oregon St.

2-0

3-0

112.1

117.5

Washington

1-0

3-1

107.6

113.5

California

0-2

1-4

105.1

102.0

Washington St.

0-2

2-3

94.6

92.0

         
South Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

U S C

1-1

3-1

123.6

121.0

U C L A

1-1

4-1

113.4

114.0

Arizona St.

2-0

4-1

110.6

118.0

Arizona

0-2

3-2

107.4

108.0

Utah

0-1

2-2

106.6

106.0

Colorado

1-1

1-4

83.1

94.0

         
         
Conference Means

109.571

 

108.73

110.4

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Georgia

3-0

5-0

122.8

123.5

South Carolina

3-0

5-0

122.6

116.5

Florida

3-0

4-0

122.2

123.0

Missouri

0-2

3-2

111.3

110.5

Tennessee

0-2

3-2

110.4

111.0

Vanderbilt

0-2

1-3

104.7

95.0

Kentucky

0-2

1-4

93.5

92.5

         
West Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Alabama

2-0

5-0

131.8

126.0

L S U  

1-0

5-0

125.2

122.5

Texas A&M

1-1

3-1

119.8

112.0

Auburn

0-2

1-3

109.0

108.0

Mississippi St.

1-0

4-0

108.1

113.5

Ole Miss

0-1

3-2

104.2

105.5

Arkansas

0-2

1-4

97.5

96.0

         
         
Conference Means

112.093

 

113.08

111.1

 

Sunbelt Conference

         
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Louisiana-Monroe

0-0

2-2

100.1

100.0

Western Kentucky

1-0

4-1

98.8

100.5

UL-Lafayette

2-0

3-1

94.0

99.5

Troy

2-1

3-2

89.6

92.5

Arkansas St.

0-1

2-3

89.1

88.0

North Texas

1-1

2-3

88.9

80.5

Florida International

0-1

1-4

86.6

83.5

Middle Tennessee

1-0

3-1

83.9

97.5

Florida Atlantic

0-2

1-4

74.7

74.0

South Alabama

0-1

1-4

71.2

72.5

         
         
Conference Means

88.27

 

87.69

88.9

 

Western Athletic Conference

         
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Louisiana Tech  

0-0

4-0

107.3

107.0

Utah St.

0-0

4-1

99.2

105.5

San Jose St.

0-0

4-1

98.3

105.0

Idaho

0-0

0-5

79.4

70.0

U T S A

1-0

5-0

78.8

92.0

Texas St.

0-0

2-2

76.3

88.5

New Mexico St.

0-1

1-4

74.5

75.0

         
         
Conference Means

89.7714

 

87.69

91.9

 

 

This Week’s Games

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

PiRate

Vintage

Line

Thursday, October 4

 

 

 

CENTRAL FLORIDA

East Carolina

10.0

6.0

11   

SOUTHERN CAL

Utah

20.5

18.5

14   

FLORIDA INT’L

Arkansas St.

0.5

-1.5

-1   

 

 

 

 

 

Friday, October 5

 

 

 

Pittsburgh

SYRACUSE

0.9

7.0

Pk

B Y U

Utah St.

15.3

1.5

7   

 

 

 

 

 

Saturday, October 6

 

 

 

AIR FORCE

Navy

5.8

4.5

7 1/2

Michigan St.

INDIANA

14.4

19.0

15 1/2

Northern Illinois

BALL ST.

2.6

9.5

2 1/2

Boston College

ARMY

13.7

15.0

9 1/2

Bowling Green

AKRON

15.2

4.5

3 1/2

CINCINNATI

Miami (O)

19.8

27.5

19 1/2

CLEMSON

Georgia Tech

14.4

21.5

10   

DUKE

Virginia

3.0

7.5

1 1/2

South Florida

TEMPLE

13.5

9.0

4   

Northwestern

PENN ST.

0.5

2.5

-3   

Kent St.

EASTERN MICHIGAN

4.3

11.5

3   

RUTGERS

Connecticut

12.7

14.5

7 1/2

Florida St.

NORTH CAROLINA ST.

21.6

12.0

14 1/2

WESTERN MICHIGAN

Massachusetts

27.0

17.0

16 1/2

MISSOURI

Vanderbilt

9.6

18.5

7   

Texas A&M

OLE MISS

12.6

3.5

12 1/2

NORTH CAROLINA

Virginia Tech

7.9

6.0

4 1/2

OREGON

Washington

19.7

13.5

24   

SOUTH CAROLINA

Georgia

2.8

-4.0

2   

TEXAS

West Virginia

12.2

5.0

7   

T C U

Iowa St.

7.6

13.5

10 1/2

WISCONSIN

Illinois

18.4

18.0

14 1/2

KANSAS ST.

Kansas

28.6

25.5

24   

U c l a

CALIFORNIA

5.3

9.0

3   

AUBURN

Arkansas

14.5

15.0

9 1/2

Michigan

PURDUE

4.0

4.0

3   

NEVADA

Wyoming

16.7

30.5

17   

IDAHO

New Mexico St.

7.4

-2.0

10 1/2

STANFORD

Arizona

11.9

10.0

9   

Oklahoma

TEXAS TECH

6.2

3.5

5   

TOLEDO

Central Michigan

15.7

12.0

10   

Boise St.

SOUTHERN MISS.

8.1

4.5

10   

Rice

MEMPHIS

12.9

3.5

7 1/2

MARYLAND

Wake Forest

4.3

12.0

6   

Mississippi St.

KENTUCKY

11.6

18.0

10   

OREGON ST.

Washington St.

20.5

28.5

15 1/2

LOUISIANA TECH

U n l v

30.3

29.5

24 1/2

Tulsa

MARSHALL

7.7

7.0

3   

NOTRE DAME  (n)

Miami (Fla)

20.9

6.0

12 1/2

OHIO U

Buffalo

15.0

20.5

14   

Nebraska

OHIO ST.

2.3

-3.5

-3   

SAN DIEGO ST.

Hawaii

15.8

21.0

22   

Fresno St.

COLORADO ST.

13.9

21.0

17 1/2

FLORIDA

L s u

0.0

3.5

-2 1/2

NEW MEXICO

Texas St.

12.0

-0.5

3 1/2

U T E P

S m u

0.9

-3.0

2 1/2

UL-LAFAYETTE

Tulane

25.3

28.5

27   

UL-Monroe

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

13.2

-0.5

3   

HOUSTON

North Texas

10.2

17.5

12   

 

September 26, 2012

PiRate Ratings For College Football: September 26-29, 2012

End of September Look at the Conferences

 

ACC

Florida State has defeated its principle Atlantic Division opponent, but the Seminoles do not necessarily have an easy route to an undefeated season.  Road games against North Carolina State, Miami, and Virginia Tech will be rough, even though FSU will be favored over all three.  The season finale against Florida will be the toughest game.

 

No other ACC team has a chance to get to the National Championship Game.  In the Coastal Division, the winner of the Virginia Tech and Miami game in Miami on Thursday, November 1 will almost assuredly decide which team faces the Seminoles in the conference title game.

 

The other interesting fact here is that Duke has a fighting chance to become bowl eligible.  The Blue Devils are 3-1. They need three more wins and have a chance against Wake Forest, Virginia, North Carolina, and possibly Georgia Tech or Miami.

 

Big East

Rutgers, Louisville, and Cincinnati are still undefeated, but none of these three will earn the National Championship Game bid at 12-0.  The combined record of the seven FBS teams this undefeated trio has faced is 9-18.

 

Pittsburgh began the season losing to Youngstown State and Cincinnati.  First-year coach Paul Chryst rallied his Panthers to pull off the one strong win for this league, when Pitt upset Virginia Tech at Heinz Field.  After a blowout win over Gardner-Webb, the Panthers have a week off before playing four winnable games leading up to a trip to Notre Dame in November.  It isn’t beyond reason to see the Panthers contending for the Big East title after the horrendous start.

 

South Florida is a big disappointment to this point of the season.  The Bulls were a leading contender to win the league title, until they lost at home to Rutgers.  They followed up that loss with a loss at Ball State last week.  Hosting Florida State should send USF’s record to 2-3 with one of the wins coming against Chattanooga.  Another losing record could put Coach Skip Holtz on the hot seat in Tampa.

 

Big Ten

Alas, poor Big Ten, we knew you well.  We have come here to bury this conference, not praise it.

 

Fake eulogies aside, the Big Ten would like to press the reset button and start the season again.  With Michigan losing to Alabama and Notre Dame, Michigan State and Purdue also losing to Notre Dame, and Nebraska losing to UCLA, there are no power teams that can get in the National Championship picture.  Ohio State is not eligible for the postseason, so it leaves Legends Division teams Northwestern and Minnesota as the only remaining bowl eligible undefeated teams.

 

The Leaders Division representative in the Big Ten Championship will be the winner of the Purdue-Wisconsin game, but that team could carry as many as four losses into the big game.

 

Iowa and Illinois will have to come up with some upsets to earn bowl eligibility.  Look for the Big Ten to fall short in its bowl responsibilities.

 

Big 12

At this point in the season, the Big 12 overall is a little stronger than the SEC.  Nine of the 10 league schools could be bowl eligible, and four or five could win double digit games in the regular season.  The problem is that there is too much parity.  We don’t see how any team will run the table in league play, and there could be multiple teams finishing tied for first at 7-2.

 

Texas has the best defense in the league, but their offense is not as strong as others in this league.  The win over Ole Miss may have been a forewarning that the Longhorn offense has improved enough to make UT the team to beat in the league.

 

West Virginia has the best offense in the league, but the Mountaineers are not as talented as Texas defensively. 

 

Oklahoma, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, and even Texas Tech are good enough to win this league’s crown, while Baylor and Iowa State are good enough to upset any of these teams on a given Saturday. 

 

Kansas could go 0-9 in the league and finish three games behind the number nine team.

 

Conference USA

Tulsa lost to Iowa State, and Central Florida lost to Ohio State.  With Houston finding the going rough without Case Keenum and Coach Kevin Sumlin, and with SMU looking more like the Mustangs of the 1990’s, this league has no chance of sneaking a team into a BCS Bowl.  Still, there could be two quite interesting races in the divisions.  Marshall and East Carolina could give UCF a run in the East, while UTEP could give Tulsa some competition in the West.  Houston and SMU are still not down for the count, because neither has played a conference game yet. 

 

Independents

Can Notre Dame win 10 games this year?  Yes, they can, and they could even run the table.  The Irish defense is good enough to stop Stanford, Oklahoma, and Southern Cal, but we don’t see it happening.  Notre Dame’s wins have come against Navy, Purdue, Michigan State, and Michigan.  The Big Ten is only marginally stronger than the ACC this year, so those four wins have not yet proved that the Irish are back.  Still, at 10-2, Notre Dame could earn a BCS Bowl bid.

 

This is not your father’s BYU team,  The Cougars are having troubles passing the ball or scoring.  Look for BYU to recuperate some this week with a home game against Hawaii.

 

As for Army and Navy, their two bowl tie-ins will go to at-large teams this year.  Defenses have caught up with their offenses.

 

M A C

Ohio U has a chance to run the table.  The Bobcats last did that in 1968, but they lost in the Tangerine Bowl that year.

 

In the MAC East, there is no clear-cut number two team yet.  Miami of Ohio was supposed to be a contender, but the Redhawks have been disappointing so far.  Bowling Green looked good against Florida, but the Falcons are 1-3.  Keep an eye on Kent State.  The Golden Flashes have not been to a bowl for 40 years (Nick Saban played on that team), but Coach Darrell Hazell has KSU at 2-1 with a chance to win seven or eight games.

 

The MAC West should be an exciting race.  Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Central Michigan, and Ball State all have a shot at the division flag.

 

Mountain West

Boise State and Nevada lost early to take away all the luster in this league.  Fresno State is the clear-cut third best team, while San Diego State is the only other team worthy of playing in a bowl.  Air Force and Wyoming are not living up to their credentials, while Hawaii, Colorado State, New Mexico, and UNLV will vie for fifth place in a weak MWC.

 

Pac-12

Stanford showed the nation that they are not going to go away quietly after the loss of Andrew Luck, Griff Whalen, and Coby Fleener.  Just like the 1971 team surprised the nation by repeating as Pac-8 champs after losing Jim Plunkett and Randy Vataha, the Cardinal defeated USC when no so-called experts gave them a chance.

 

That 1971 Stanford team only had a halfway decent Washington team to get by to return to the Rose Bowl.  This team still has Oregon in its path.  SU has given up 237 points to the Ducks in the last five years.

 

Oregon State is 2-0 after having a lot of preparation time.  Now, the Beavers face 11 games in 11 weeks, with a makeup game to come in December if they do not win the Pac-12 North.  Their game at Arizona should be quite interesting this week.

 

Arizona State and Arizona could challenge USC in the South, while UCLA will have something to say in the race.

 

Southeastern Conference

Alabama is now more than five points better than the number two team in our regular PiRate Ratings.  The last time a PiRate Champion finished the season more than five points ahead of the number two team was 2001, when Miami of Florida finished 5.6 points ahead of Oregon.

 

LSU fell a few points following the tough win over Auburn.  The Tigers have a tough game at Florida in two weeks, and if the Bayou Bengals can get by the Gators, the two behemoths will face off in Baton Rouge for their third epic game in a year.

 

In the East, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina may finish 1-1 against each other, but should one of these three go 8-0 in the league, Alabama or LSU will have a tough opponent in the SEC Championship Game.

 

Missouri and Texas A&M have discovered just how hard it is to win in this league.  Both new teams should taste conference victory for the first time in their next conference game.  A&M hosts Arkansas this week, while Missouri hosts Vanderbilt in two weeks.

 

As for Arkansas, the coaching search has already begun.  Ditto that for Kentucky.  If Tennessee doesn’t win eight games this year, Derek Dooley could be on his way out.  Gene Chizik could be on shaky ground in Auburn just two years after winning a National Championship.  Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen and Vanderbilt’s James Franklin could be on short lists at several other schools, so there could be a lot of new coaches in the SEC in 2013.

 

Sunbelt

This league has made major strides forward.  As of this week, the SBC is rated ahead of the MAC and is no longer the weakest conference in FBS football.  Four teams in this league, Western Kentucky, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, and Arkansas State have the talent to win eight or nine games this year.  Troy, Middle Tennessee, and Florida International could sneak into bowl eligibility.

 

W A C

This lame duck league will not go away quietly.  Louisiana Tech actually has a small chance at sneaking into the BCS Bowl talk.  The Bulldogs clobbered Houston, Rice, and Illinois to begin 3-0.  A road game at Virginia this week and a neutral game against Texas A&M on October 13 gives LT a chance to get into the talk if they win both and continue winning.

 

Utah State and San Jose State are good enough to win this league in most years.  The Aggies beat Utah and almost beat Wisconsin, while the Spartans lost a close game to Stanford and won their next three.

 

Larry Coker’s return to FBS coaching has been a smashing success so far.  Texas-San Antonio is off to a 4-0 start and could win eight of nine games in their first season among the big boys.  His career coaching record is now 64-15 for 81%.

 

This Week’s PiRate and PiRate Vintage Ratings

We get this request almost every week from either a new reader or someone that has not taken the time to explore our site. 

 

Q: How can you have X rated higher than Y when Y beat them by 10 points last month?

 

A: Our ratings are predictive and not retrodictive (to be quite honest, it is not totally black and white, but we consider them to be about 95% predictive).  The ratings you see below are only valid for this Week’s games.  So if Y beat X three weeks ago by a score of 24-14, our ratings may show X to be 2.3 points better, which would state that we believe X would beat Y by 2.3 points if they played again this week.  Look at Alabama and LSU last year.  LSU beat Alabama during the regular season, yet many predictive ratings available to the public showed Alabama to be the favorite in the National Championship Game. 

 

Q2: We got this one three times in the last 10 days.  If your ratings show team X to be 12 points better than team Y, and the Las Vegas Line says team X is a 2 ½ point favorite, does that mean more than if your ratings showed team X to be only 4 points better than team Y?

 

A2: No.  We sure wish that we could correlate this statement, but past history shows that for the most part, our success against the spread has fluctuated very little when the difference in our spread and the Vegas Line increases.  Of all possible data-mining, we have only found one significant benefit when comparing our spread to the Vegas Line, and that exists in our NFL ratings.  When the PiRate, PiRate Mean, and PiRate Bias all agree that the underdog should beat the spread, the winning percentage jumps 2 or 3% from the norm.  In some years, it has not been so, while in others, the difference has been more than 5%.  However, in order to use this information, you would have to play every game in which this was so.  There have been weeks where our ratings agreed on taking the underdog in all 16 NFL games, so it would be difficult to use it to your advantage.

 

The PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

1

Alabama

134.3

2

L S U  

128.7

3

Florida St.

126.1

4

Oklahoma

125.7

5

Oregon  

124.7

6

Texas

123.7

7

U S C

123.6

8

Kansas St.

123.3

9

Georgia

123.3

10

Oklahoma St.  

123.1

11

South Carolina

122.4

12

Florida

122.2

13

Notre Dame

121.4

14

Stanford

119.1

15

Nebraska

116.9

16

Texas A&M

116.6

17

Texas Tech

116.5

18

Clemson  

115.3

19

West Virginia

115.0

20

Michigan

114.9

21

Baylor

113.1

22

U C L A

113.0

23

T C U

112.4

24

Oregon St.

111.7

25

Missouri

111.2

26

Ohio St.

110.7

27

Michigan St.

110.6

28

B Y U

109.7

29

Wisconsin  

109.6

30

Tennessee

109.4

31

Georgia Tech

109.3

32

Auburn

109.0

33

North Carolina

108.8

34

Arizona St.

108.8

35

Purdue

108.6

36

Virginia Tech

108.4

37

Mississippi St.

108.1

38

Iowa St.

107.8

39

Louisiana Tech  

107.8

40

Rutgers

107.7

41

Arizona

107.7

42

California

106.8

43

Utah

106.6

44

Louisville

105.6

45

Boise St.

105.3

46

Vanderbilt

104.7

47

Washington

104.2

48

Tulsa

103.9

49

Nevada

103.4

50

South Florida

103.3

51

Central Florida

102.8

52

Northwestern

102.7

53

Arkansas

102.3

54

Pittsburgh

101.7

55

Cincinnati

101.6

56

North Carolina St.

101.5

57

BostonCollege

101.4

58

Ole Miss

101.3

59

Miami-FL

101.0

60

Minnesota

100.0

61

Connecticut

99.5

62

Fresno St.

99.0

63

Utah St.

98.9

64

Illinois

98.3

65

Ohio U

98.1

66

Iowa

98.0

67

Western Kentucky

98.0

68

Syracuse

97.8

69

San Jose St.

97.2

70

Virginia

97.1

71

Western Michigan

97.1

72

Maryland

96.8

73

Duke

96.7

74

Penn St.

96.7

75

Kansas

96.7

76

WakeForest

96.5

77

Toledo

96.2

78

Northern Illinois  

96.1

79

Louisiana-Monroe

95.8

80

East Carolina

94.9

81

San Diego St.

94.4

82

Houston

94.2

83

Ball St.

94.2

84

Washington St.

94.2

85

S M U

93.9

86

Kentucky

93.7

87

Indiana

93.3

88

U T E P

93.3

89

Marshall

91.8

90

UL-Lafayette

91.3

91

Southern Mississippi  

91.2

92

Bowling Green

90.0

93

Arkansas St.  

89.8

94

Rice

89.7

95

North Texas

89.5

96

Central Michigan

89.4

97

Wyoming

89.0

98

Florida International

89.0

99

Kent St.

88.9

100

Troy

88.6

101

Army

88.4

102

Temple

88.0

103

Miami (O)

87.6

104

Navy

87.0

105

Colorado St.

86.0

106

Air Force

85.8

107

Hawaii

84.0

108

Colorado

83.4

109

Eastern Michigan

83.0

110

U A B

82.8

111

Idaho

82.7

112

New Mexico

82.2

113

Buffalo

81.9

114

UNLV

80.2

115

Tulane

77.2

116

Middle Tennessee

76.8

117

New Mexico St.

76.8

118

U T S A

76.0

119

Texas St.

75.7

120

FloridaAtlantic

74.1

121

Akron

73.5

122

Memphis

72.2

123

South Alabama

71.9

124

Massachusetts

67.4

 

The PiRate Vintage Rankings

#

Team

Vintage

1

Alabama

126.0

2

Oregon

123.5

3

L S U

123.0

4

Florida St.

122.5

5

Florida 

121.0

6

Stanford

120.0

7

Texas

119.5

8

Georgia 

119.0

9

Notre Dame

118.5

10

Kansas St.

118.5

11

West Virginia

118.0

12

S. Carolina

117.5

13

U S C

117.0

14

Oklahoma

117.0

15

Va. Tech

114.5

16

Nebraska

114.5

17

Miss. St.

114.0

18

Ohio St.

114.0

19

Oklahoma St.

114.0

20

Oregon St.

113.5

21

Clemson

113.0

22

Texas Tech

113.0

23

Michigan St.

112.5

24

Georgia Tech

112.0

25

T C U

111.5

26

Texas A&M

110.5

27

Arizona St.

110.0

28

Tennessee

110.0

29

Michigan

110.0

30

Purdue

109.0

31

Miami

108.5

32

Northwestern

108.5

33

La. Tech

108.5

34

Arizona

108.5

35

Rutgers

108.0

36

Wisconsin

108.0

37

U C L A

108.0

38

Louisville

107.0

39

Auburn

107.0

40

S. J. St.

106.5

41

N.C. St.

106.0

42

Missouri

105.5

43

Cincinnati

105.0

44

Tulsa

105.0

45

Baylor

105.0

46

Minnesota

104.0

47

Nevada

104.0

48

N. Carolina

104.0

49

Utah St.

103.5

50

Iowa St.

103.0

51

Utah

103.0

52

Penn St.

103.0

53

Pittsburgh

102.5

54

Boise St.

101.5

55

Washington

101.5

56

U C F

101.5

57

Maryland

101.5

58

Illinois

101.5

59

B Y U

101.0

60

Duke

101.0

61

Virginia

100.5

62

S. Florida

100.0

63

Iowa

100.0

64

Fresno St.

100.0

65

WesternKy.

99.5

66

Ole Miss

99.5

67

California

99.5

68

Ohio U

99.0

69

U L L

99.0

70

Arkansas

99.0

71

U L M

98.5

72

N I U

98.0

73

S. D. St.

98.0

74

E C U

98.0

75

Connecticut

97.5

76

Vanderbilt

97.5

77

W M U

97.0

78

U T E P

97.0

79

Syracuse

96.5

80

Ark. St.

96.5

81

WakeForest

96.0

82

Boston Coll.

95.0

83

Toledo

95.0

84

S M U

94.0

85

F I U

94.0

86

Indiana

94.0

87

Ball St.

93.5

88

Kentucky

93.5

89

C M U

93.0

90

Kent St.

93.0

91

Temple

93.0

92

Houston

93.0

93

Kansas

92.5

94

Marshall

92.0

95

Navy

91.5

96

MTSU

91.5

97

Sou. Miss.

91.0

98

Rice

91.0

99

Army

90.0

100

Troy

89.5

101

Colorado

89.5

102

Miami (O)

88.0

103

Washington St.

87.0

104

UTSA

86.5

105

N. Texas

85.5

106

U A B

85.0

107

B G U

84.0

108

Hawaii

82.5

109

Air Force

82.0

110

Texas St.

82.0

111

UNLV

81.5

112

New Mexico

81.5

113

Colo. St.

81.0

114

Tulane

80.5

115

Memphis

79.0

116

Buffalo

78.5

117

Wyoming

78.5

118

Idaho

78.5

119

E M U

77.0

120

N. Mex. St.

77.0

121

Akron

76.0

122

F A U

76.0

123

S. Alabama

74.0

124

U. Mass.

69.0

 

The PiRate Ratings By Conference

For the first time in two years plus, we have a new clear-cut leader for top conference.  The Big 12 has edged ahead of the SEC.  Also, the non-Automatic BCS Bowl conferences are within a couple points of each other.  The Sunbelt and WAC are outperforming expectations, while CUSA and the Mountain West are underperforming.   The MAC has seen some of its teams pull off big wins against the Big Ten, but the Big Ten has fallen so much that it has not elevated the MAC enough.  With the addition of U Mass to a league that also has Akron, Eastern Michigan, and Buffalo, the MAC has actually fallen behind the Sunbelt.

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Florida State

2-0

4-0

126.1

122.5

Clemson  

0-1

3-1

115.3

113.0

North Carolina State

0-0

3-1

101.5

106.0

Boston College

0-1

1-2

101.4

95.0

Maryland

0-0

2-2

96.8

101.5

Wake Forest

1-1

3-1

96.5

96.0

       

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Georgia Tech

1-2

2-2

109.3

112.0

North Carolina

0-1

2-2

108.8

104.0

Virginia Tech

1-0

3-1

108.4

114.5

Miami-FL

2-0

3-1

101.0

109.0

Virginia

0-1

2-2

97.1

100.5

Duke

0-0

3-1

96.7

101.0

       

 

       

 

Conference Means

105.58

 

104.91

106.3

 

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Rutgers

1-0

4-0

107.7

108.0

Louisville

0-0

4-0

105.6

107.0

South Florida

0-1

2-2

103.3

100.0

Pittsburgh

0-1

2-2

101.7

102.5

Cincinnati

1-0

2-0

101.6

105.0

Connecticut

0-0

2-2

99.5

97.5

Syracuse

0-0

1-3

97.8

96.5

Temple

0-0

1-2

88.0

93.0

 

 

 

   
 

 

 

   
Conference Means

100.919

 

100.65

101.2

 

 

Big Ten

         
Leaders Division      

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Ohio State

0-0

4-0

110.7

114.0

Wisconsin  

0-0

3-1

109.6

108.0

Purdue

0-0

2-1

108.6

109.0

Illinois

0-0

2-2

98.3

101.5

Penn State

0-0

2-2

96.7

103.0

Indiana

0-0

2-1

93.3

94.0

         
Legends Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Nebraska

0-0

3-1

116.9

114.5

Michigan

0-0

2-2

114.9

110.0

Michigan State

0-0

3-1

110.6

112.5

Northwestern

0-0

4-0

102.7

108.5

Minnesota

0-0

4-0

100.0

104.0

Iowa

0-0

2-2

98.0

100.0

         
Conference Means

105.804

 

105.03

106.6

 

 

Big 12

         
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Oklahoma

0-1

2-1

125.7

117.0

Texas

0-0

3-0

123.7

119.5

Kansas State

1-0

4-0

123.3

118.5

Oklahoma State  

0-0

2-1

123.1

114.0

Texas Tech

0-0

3-0

116.5