The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 3, 2011

The PiRates Have Returned To Dry Land Ready For Football

When we last spoke with you, it was undecided whether we would present football ratings for 2011-12.  At the time, there was no end in sight for the NFL lockout, and we were head strong in support of boycotting the college football season as a show of opposition to the post-season bowls.

 

In July, as our gardens became tumbleweeds in the oppressive heat, we had some extra time on our hands to discuss just what we would do this year.  Upon further review, we have decided to issue our college ratings as usual, but only after we make a special post concerning the bowl games.  That will come next week. 

 

As for the NFL, it will be at least three to three and a half weeks before we can update the ratings due to the tight window of wheeling and dealing.  We will not be able to offer an in-depth preview of each NFL division like in past years—it will just be ratings and a brief synopsis of how we see the races and playoffs.  We will offer a brain-teasing trivia quiz dedicated to those 50 and over who remember the NFL/AFL at its best—in the 1950’s and 1960’s.  For those not gifted with gray hair or hairlessness yet, you just might learn some very interesting facts that you can spring on your friends at your local watering hole.  Some will be very tricky indeed.

 

Beginning August 15, we will begin previewing the college conferences.  Here is the schedule for those conference previews:

 

Monday, August 15:SunbeltConference

Tuesday, August 16: Mid-American Conference

Wednesday, August 17: ConferenceUSA

Thursday, August 18: Western Athletic Conference

Friday, August 19: Independents

Monday, August 22: Mountain West Conference

Tuesday, August 23: Big East Conference

Wednesday, August 24:AtlanticCoastConference

Thursday, August 25: Pacific 12 Conference

Friday, August 26: Big 12 Conference

Monday, August 29: Southeastern Conference

Tuesday, August 30: Big Ten Conference

 

We realize that about 15% of you reading this are fans ofVanderbiltUniversitydown inNashville, who followed our founder when he wrote for Vanderbilt Athletics.  We also realize that about 35% of you reading this are residents of the great state ofWisconsinor Badger fans living in the hinterlands.  Thus, on August 29, there will be expanded coverage of the Vanderbilt Commodores, and on August 30, there will be expanded coverage on the Wisconsin Badgers, as they compete for the first Leaders Division title and another conference championship in the exciting, expanded Big Ten.

 

Check back next week for an all-inclusive post about how you can boycott the bowl sponsors and help bring about a post-season playoff.  We have a fresh way of satisfying both the bowls and a playoff at the same time.  To those that have heard our proposal, we have received 100% approval of our idea.  Check back next week for that idea.

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August 15, 2010

2010 Mountain West Conference Preview

Go to www.piratings.webs.com where we beat the spread 60.4% in 2009!

 

2010 Mountain West Conference Preview

 

The best of the non-BCS conferences will undergo a change next year, as Utah leaves for the newly named Pac-12.  Boise State will move here from the WAC and continue a great rivalry with TCU.  It wouldn’t shock us to see the Horned Frogs and Broncos meeting for a third consecutive season in a bowl, and it isn’t impossible for that bowl game to be the last one of the year!

The only mystery for this season’s race is who will finish second.  TCU will win the league and should go undefeated in the regular season for the second year in a row.  There is no clear-cut second best team as five teams could wind up in the runner-up spot.

Note: The PiRate Ratings are not meant to be used to predict the outcome of future games.  They are usable only as a basis for the current week’s games.  We do not use these ratings to make our selections.  They are only a starting point.  The predictions given below, as for every college conference and NFL division, are not taken from the ratings themselves.

Predictions

Pos Team MWC Overall
1 T C U 8-0 12-0
2 Utah 6-2 8-4
3 Air Force 5-3 7-5
4 B Y U 5-3 7-5
5 Wyoming 4-4 6-6
6 San Diego State 4-4 7-5
7 U N L V 3-5 5-8
8 Colorado State 1-7 2-10
9 New Mexico 0-8 1-11

 

BCS Bowl—T C U

Las Vegas Bowl—Utah

Poinsettia Bowl—B Y U

Independence Bowl—Air Force

New Mexico Bowl—San Diego State

Armed Forces Bowl—Wyoming

 

Team By Team Breakdown

 

Team Air Force Falcons
               
Head Coach Troy Calhoun
               
Colors Royal Blue and Silver
               
City Colorado Springs, CO
               
2009 Record              
Conference 5-3
Overall 8-5
               
PiRate Rating 102.0
               
National Rating 52
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 5-3
Overall 7-5

 

Offense: The Falcons have a feast/famine tug of war on this side of the ball.  Coach Troy Calhoun has molded three fantastic offenses in his first three seasons in Colorado Springs, and we believe the string will continue despite Calhoun having to start almost from scratch up front.

Right guard A.J. Wallerstein started one game at left guard last year, and that represents all of the starting experience for this season’s offensive line.  It isn’t a complete disaster though.  Air Force frequently has a lot of turnover because traditionally, there has been a reliance on seniority.  Also, because the Falcons utilize the option offense, the blocking schemes rely heavily on double team blocks and leaving other defenders unblocked so the quarterback can read and option them.  We are not concerned with the new starters, but there is an issue of depth.  None of the next five are ready to play at this level.

The rest of this offense is loaded and lethal.  Returning quarterback Tim Jefferson went 4-1 as a starter last year.  He connected on 57% of his passes with five touchdowns against two interceptions.  Jefferson connected on longer passes than the two other quarterbacks, and his ability to throw the ball downfield will open more running lanes for a great stable of back.

All the contributing ball carriers return this season.  Fullback Jared Tew and tailback Asher Clark teamed for 1,835 rushing yards and 16 scores.  Z-receiver Jonathan Warzeka added 267 yards on the ground running misdirection plays.

Kevin Fogler benefitted greatly from having Jefferson under center.  He averaged 22.7 yards per catch and scored a touchdown every fifth time he caught a pass.  Warzeka added 18 more catches.

Air Force has averaged 29 points and 380 yards per game in Calhoun’s tenure.  There is no reason to believe those stats won’t be continued again this year.

Defense: The defensive line is a cause for concern with just one of the three regulars from last year returning.  AFA is a little small at Defensive tackle in their 3-4 alignment, so opponents will be able to run the ball up the gut on them. 

The four-man linebacking crew welcomes back both of the outside defenders, Andre Morris and Wale Lawal.  The two combined for 9 ½ stops for loss, but the Falcons will have troubles replacing their two excellent inside linebackers.  John Falgout and Justin Moore finished one-two in tackles.

Only TCU has a better MWC secondary than Air Force, and the Falcons may have a better pair of cornerbacks than the Horned Frogs.  Anthony Wright and Reggie Rembert picked off 10 passes and knocked away six others.

Air Force gave up just 15.7 points and 288 yards per game in 2009.  Those numbers will go up this year.  Expect the Falcons to give up 21-24 points and 320-350 yards per game.

Schedule: The schedule gives the Falcons a leg up on competing for number two in the league.  After an easy opener with Northwestern State that should allow the new offensive line to gain confidence, AF hosts BYU.  The Cougars have run defense issues this year, and we believe Air Force will win that game.  The following week, the Falcons visit Oklahoma, who is loaded this year. 

As usual, AF plays Army and Navy, and we feel that they will win at least one of those games.  The key to the season comes in back-to-back weeks in October.  They face TCU in Ft. Worth on the 23rd, and then they host Utah a week later.  If they have anything left after the TCU loss, they could give the Utes a great game.  We feel that as the season progresses, the lack of depth in both trenches will hurt them.  Call it a repeat of 2009: 5-3 in league play and 7-5 overall before the bowl.

Team Brigham Young Cougars
               
Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall
               
Colors Navy and White
               
City Provo, UT
               
2009 Record              
Conference 7-1
Overall 11-2
               
PiRate Rating 103.2
               
National Rating 50
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 5-3
Overall 7-5

 

Offense: 2010 will be a rebuilding season in Provo.  Brigham Young lost too much talent on this side of the ball, and there will be a substantial drop in production.  The Cougars lost a multi-year starting quarterback (Max Hall) who finished second all-time in passing yards at a school with a dozen excellent former QBs.  Also gone is the school’s career leader in rushing yards; Harvey Unga rushed for almost 1,100 yards and 11 touchdowns.  He was dismissed from school and became a supplementary NFL pick.  2009’s top receiver, tight end Dennis Pitta, is now in training camp with the Baltimore Ravens after he led the team with 62 receptions (30 more than any other player).

It could be a blessing or a curse that BYU has two quarterbacks still competing for the starting nod this close to the first game.  They have totally different styles, and according to Coach Bronco Mendenhall, neither player has separated himself from the other.  Jake Heaps is the prototypical straight drop-back passer in the Peyton Manning mode.  He has all the physical tools to be the next in a long line of great passers here.  However, he is a true freshman.  Riley Nelson is more of a scrambler who can pass well on the run.  He saw very limited action last year, but he has starting experience from his days at Utah State.

BYU has no answer at tailback with the loss of Unga.  Unga rushed the ball 208 times last year, and the top reserve ran the ball just 55 times.

Without Pitta, BYU will once again concentrate on throwing the ball to wide outs and less to tight ends.  We believe O’Neil Chambers will emerge as the breakout star of this group.  Chambers caught 32 passes last year.

The one ray of sunshine on this side of the ball is the return of four starting offensive linemen.  Tackle Matt Reynolds has first round NFL draft potential.

BYU has topped 30 points and 425 yards per game for five straight years, but this streak will more than likely end this year.  Call it 25-28 points and 380-420 total yards per game.

Defense: There is more rebuilding to do on this side of the ball than on the other side.  The Cougars lost seven of their top 11 tacklers from 2009, including six starters.  Just two of the front seven return, so BYU will have a tough time against the run and rushing the passer.  It wouldn’t surprise us to see the Cougars give up 150 points in the first four games this year (see schedule below).

The one bright spot on this side of the ball is an experienced secondary.  Three starters return including leading tackler, free safety Andrew Rich.  Rich also tied for the team lead with four interceptions.

The Cougars lost their two best pass rushers, leaving outside linebacker Jordan Pendleton as the only quality sack man.  Pendleton had three sacks and three other tackles for loss.  He is a quality pass defender in the short zones as well.

Up front in the 3-4 alignment, BYU has a decent space-occupier in nose tackle Romney Fuga.  He won’t make 50 tackles, but he will command double team blocks, giving the linebackers a chance to be heroes.

BYU may not give up too many more points this year than last, because opponents will eat the clock running the ball much better this year against them.  Expect the Cougars to yield 22-25 points and 325-350 yards per game.  However, also expect the defense to be on the field for more plays this year.

Schedule: The month of September will be a back-breaker for the defense.  BYU opens with Washington and Heisman Trophy frontrunner Jake Locker.  Then, they must travel to Air Force, where their newly rebuilt defensive front seven will struggle against the option.  A week later, they will melt in Tallahassee against Florida State.  They close out the month with Nevada coming to Lavell Edwards Stadium.  It looks like a 1-3 start for this team.  After the annual first October Friday game (precedes the Church’s National Conference) with Utah State, BYU faces three of the league’s other four expected bowl-eligible teams—San Diego State, at TCU, and Wyoming.  By this point, we expect the Cougars to be out of the conference race just trying to salvage a winning season.  November gives them a chance for three quick wins before closing the season at Utah.  We will call it a seven-win ceiling this year.  And, you can take the Las Vegas bowl off the schedule for the first time in six years.  A trip to San Diego might be a nice alternative.

Team Colorado State Rams
               
Head Coach Steve Fairchild
               
Colors Green and Gold
               
City Ft. Collins, CO
               
2009 Record              
Conference 0-8
Overall 3-9
               
PiRate Rating 85.8
               
National Rating 96
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 1-7
Overall 2-10

 

Offense: After starting the season 3-0 with wins over Colorado and Nevada, it looked like the Rams were primed to make a bid for a second consecutive bowl game.  Then, the bottom fell out.  CSU lost their final nine, including an embarrassing loss to a New Mexico team that went 1-11.  With only four starters returning on this side of the ball, don’t expect the Rams to match last year’s three-win season.  They will take a step backwards this year.

CSU lost both of their contributing quarterbacks, and the replacement will be one of two freshmen competing for the job.  There is a third quarterback on the roster that could eventually emerge as the starter sometime during the season; Junior Klay Kubiak is the son of Houston Texans coach Gary Kubiak.  Klay missed all of last season with an injured shoulder that required surgery.

The quarterbacks won’t have much opportunity to star, because there is very little talent at receiver.  CSU lost its top two pass catchers, who combined for 74 receptions.  Additionally, the Rams lost three receivers since spring that were expected to contribute including a possible starter.  Expect true freshman tight end Crockett Gilmore to see immediate action.

Things look rosier at the running back position.  CSU has enough quality backs to flirt with running an old-fashioned two-back pro-set. 

Raymond Carter was a highly-touted recruit at UCLA.  He becomes eligible here this year and could supplant last year’s two-man platoon of Leonard Mason and John Mosure (a combined 1,416 rushing yards and nine scores).  Watch out for true freshman Tony Drake, who we believe could be a difference maker with his breakaway speed.  His size will keep him from being an every down back.

The offensive line lost four starters.  There is a little starting experience returning, but the Rams will field the weakest interior in the conference.

With a raw quarterback passing to inexperienced receivers and having to run for his life due to weak pass protection, expect Colorado State to struggle to score points and to turn the ball over more this season.  A negative turnover margin is a virtual given.  Look for about 14-18 points and 300 total yards from this side of the ball.

Defense: CSU had a lot more experience scheduled to return on this side of the ball, but the Rams lost both returning defensive ends (one to injury/one to academics), a defensive back expected to see a lot of time, and several reserves in the back seven.  This looks like a train wreck waiting to happen.

The one bright spot is at linebacker.  Will linebacker Mychal Sisson will compete for 1st team All-MWC honors after leading the Rams with 91 tackles, six sacks, and 9 ½ other tackles for loss.  He knocked down five passes too.  Coach Steve Fairchild welcomes back Sam linebacker Ricky Brewer who was suspended last year.

The front four will now have four new starters, and it will be the weakest in the conference.  Expect teams to run the ball at will on the Rams and exploit their lack of a pass rush with play-action passes to keep Sisson occupied.

The secondary will be overwhelmed due to the fact that there will be so little pass rush.  Free safety Elijah-Blue Smith led the Rams with three interceptions and knocked down five others, but teams will throw away from him. 

The statistic is not kept, but we have a suspicion that CSU will finish dead last number 120 in scrimmage play differential.  They were -6 last year, and they could easily be -10 to -15 this year.  Expect this defense to give up 200+ yards rushing and 200+ yards passing while surrendering 31-35 points per game.

Schedule: By the time UNLV comes to Ft. Collins for homecoming on October 16, the Rams could be 0-6 and figure to be no better than 1-5.  Outside of league play, they face Colorado at Invesco Field in Denver, play at Nevada and Miami of Ohio, and host Idaho.  They open MWC play with TCU at home and Air Force on the road.  They have two chances to win a conference game—the homecoming game with UNLV and the revenge game at home with lowly New Mexico.  We will call for a 1-7 league finish and 2-10 overall.  If Fairchild can coax four wins out of this team, he deserves a raise.

Team New Mexico Lobos
               
Head Coach Mike Locksley
               
Colors Cherry and Silver
               
City Albuquerque, NM
               
2009 Record              
Conference 1-7
Overall 1-11
               
PiRate Rating 81.3
               
National Rating 107
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 0-8
Overall 1-11

 

Offense: Lobo fans wanted someone else to coach this team after watching Rocky Long’s teams play conservative football and simply go to bowl game after bowl game.  So, they forced him out.  They got Mike Locksley’s new offense—the one that gained 315 total yards and scored 16 points per game.  We hope they enjoyed what they got.

Locksley may only last one more season in Albuquerque, because this year’s offense could make last year’s look like Boise State.

A true freshman will open up at quarterback.  Tarean Austin is a speedy multiple-threat player who could lead the team in rushing as well as passing.  Let’s hope he can run enough to avoid the oncoming slew of defenders shooting through the line.  Austin’s backup will be another freshmen—Darain “Stump” Godfrey.

New Mexico returns their top three running backs from last year.  None of them will be confused for DonTrell Moore.  The trio combined for 987 yards and five touchdowns last year, and with an even weaker offensive line, they may not equal that mark this season.

The receiving corps has some experience returning, but like the running game, Hank Baskett won’t be walking out on the field.  Ty Kirk led the Lobos with 36 receptions and 427 yards. 

The offensive line will struggle.  Two starters return, and there is much less experience here, but last year’s regulars were not world-beaters.  This year’s unit cannot be much worse.

Look for UNM to average about 14-18 points and 280-320 yards.   

Defense: As weak as the offense was last year, the defense was worse.  Without the defensive genius of Long, the Lobos gave up 13 more points and 83 more yards per game in 2009.  If the offense could hold onto the ball, the defense could show a little improvement this year.

The Lobos have strength in numbers up front.  Three starters return to the four-man line, including one of UNM’s two potential 1st Team All-MWC performers.  End Johnathan Rainey finished second in the league (to the great Jerry Hughes) in sacks with 9 ½.  He added six more tackles for loss for good measure.  When he was busy dealing with double teams, counterpart Jaymar Latchison found time to pick up 4 ½ sacks and four other tackles for loss.

The other potential 1st Team All-MWC performer would be repeating that feat if he made it again this year.  Middle linebacker Carmen Messina led the country with 162 tackles and eight for loss.  He will have two new partners on either side of him.

The secondary gave up 254 yards per game and 63% completions last year, even with the great press rush.  The Lobos need to find two new safeties.  Both cornerbacks return, but they were the two weakest corner starters in the league.

The defense will be a little more talented, but it may not show in the stats.  Because opponents emptied the bench early in five of their games last year, and New Mexico figures to be in these games a little longer this year, expect opponents to leave their starting offense in deeper into the game.  The result—opponents will still score a lot of points.  Expect 31-35 points and 400-425 yards allowed once again.

Schedule: The Lobos have a chance in two of their non-conference games, and we think they will win one of the two.  Expect an 0-2 start with a road game against Oregon and a home game with Texas Tech.  After losing at home to Utah and on the road at UNLV, the Lobos get UTEP at home and travel to New Mexico State.  If they are 0-6 at this point, then they will end up 0-12.  We believe they will be lucky once and finish 1-11 again this year.  Locksley won’t be so lucky.

Team San Diego State Aztecs
               
Head Coach Brady Hoke
               
Colors Scarlet and Black
               
City San Diego, CA
               
2009 Record              
Conference 2-6
Overall 4-8
               
PiRate Rating 92.8
               
National Rating 80
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 4-4
Overall 7-5

 

Offense: Second year head coach Brady Hoke has the Aztecs on the right path, and he could soon replicate here what he did at Ball State.  Hoke’s 2010 Aztecs are going to be much improved on this side of the ball, and with a little bit of help from the other side of the ball, San Diego State could be playing a 13th game in December.

Look for SDSU to move to a two-back pro-set and use the West Coast Offense this year.  The Aztecs are stocked anew in the backfield, and they will force defenses to stop the run first.  Brandon Sullivan moves from tailback to fullback after leading the team in rushing in 2009.  Last year’s number two rusher, Walter Kazee, may have trouble getting on the field this year.  Two outstanding freshmen may get most of the reps at halfback.  Ronnie Hillman is a blazing runner who can take a simple pitch and turn it into a long gain.  Ezell Ruffin moves to halfback from wide receiver in high school.  He is almost as speedy as Hillman, but at 205 pounds, he packs some brute force punch in his game.  The Aztecs could double their running production after rushing for less than 80 yards per game.

If the running game takes some heat off the passing game, then SDSU will have a potent attack.  Quarterback Ryan Lindley could challenge for 1st Team All-MWC accolades.  With very little running game to supplement last year’s offense, Lindley passed for 3,054 yards and 23 touchdowns.  If he can cut down on his 16 interceptions of a year ago, he could challenge Andy Dalton for top honors in the league.

Lindley has a surplus of talent at receiver where two fine wide outs return.  DeMarco Sampson caught 62 passes for 851 yards and eight touchdowns, while speedy Vincent Brown added 45 receptions for 778 yards (17.3 avg.) and six scores.  There is depth behind these two.  For a West Coast offense to click, the tight end must be a pass catching weapon, and Alston Umuolo is that.  He grabbed 22 throws a year ago, and that number will improve to 30+ this year.

SDSU’s offensive line welcomes back four starters, and the new starter is a quality junior college transfer.  Expect much improved numbers in the running game and better protection for Lindley.

We believe San Diego State can improve from 23 to 28-31 points per game this season and from 342 to 375-400 yards of offense.

Defense: New Mexico’s loss was the Aztecs’ gain.  Rocky Long took over as defensive coordinator last year, and SDSU improved on defense by almost as many points and yards as New Mexico worsened.  With the entire three-man line returning up front, look for improved play against the run and a better pass rush.

Neither B J Williams nor Ernie Lawson proved to be a dominant pass rushing end last year, but with a better secondary this year, quarterbacks could be forced to hold onto the pigskin a bit longer.  Expect their sacks totals to rise.

The one suspect part of this defense is at linebacker, where two of last year’s three starters are gone and one other linebacker has been moved back one level. 

The back line of the 3-3-5 defense is loaded with talent and experience.  The aforementioned player that moved from linebacker is Andrew Preston.  He will man the “Aztec” position, a third safety that plays closer to the ball than a regular safety.  Preston played enough last year to record 46 tackles with four for loss. 

Expect more defensive improvement in the stat sheet this year.  We anticipate this team giving up 22-26 points and 350-375 yards per game.

Schedule: San Diego State scheduled well this year.  They should win three non-conference games, and they could stay surprisingly close in the one they lose.  Nicholls State will provide SDSU with an excellent chance to work out the kinks in game one.  A trip to New Mexico State should move the Aztecs to 2-0.  The following week, they could put a scare in Missouri at Columbia, but we expect them to lose by less than two touchdowns.  A home game with Utah State should give them a third win before MWC play begins.

The Aztecs host Air Force, Colorado State, Utah, and UNLV, while they go to BYU, New Mexico, Wyoming, and TCU.  They could be as good as 6-2 in the league or as bad as 3-5.  We’ll call for them to go 4-4, which will make them bowl-bound for the first time since 1998.

Team T C U  Horned Frogs
               
Head Coach Gary Patterson
               
Colors Purple and White
               
City Ft. Worth, TX
               
2009 Record              
Conference 8-0
Overall 12-1
               
PiRate Rating 124.1
               
National Rating 6
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 8-0
Overall 12-0

 

Offense: Nine starters return to an offense that amassed 38.3 points and 457 yards per game last year.  That offense was quite balanced, churning out 240 rushing and 217 passing yards.  TCU will be virtually unstoppable on this side of the ball this year, and it wouldn’t surprise us any if the Horned Frogs challenged for 45-50 points and 500+ yards per game!

It all starts with the league’s top quarterback.  Andy Dalton will compete for the Heisman Trophy in his senior year.  As a junior, Dalton completed 61.6% of his passes for 2,756 yards and 23 touchdowns, while rushing for 512 (600+ without the sacks) yards and three more scores.

The leading rusher from last year has graduated, but TCU uses a running back-by-committee approach, and the Horned Frogs return several quality backs this year.  Expect another season of 200+ yards per game running, maybe as much as 275.

The receiving corps is downright scary and could be as good as Houston’s group of stars.  The top four receivers are back.  Jermey Kerly led with 44 catches and 532 yards.  Jimmy Young had 33 receptions for 517 yards.  Antoine Hicks caught just 23 passes, but he averaged an eye-popping 20.8 yards per catch with six scores.  Bart Johnson caught 33 more.  To this fine quartet, add two exceptionally talented youngsters.  Redshirt freshman Josh Boyce and sophomore Skye Dawson will see considerable playing time, and it wouldn’t surprise us if both finished with more than 25 receptions.  Dawson is even faster than Hicks and can turn a line of scrimmage bullet into a 75-yard touchdown.

Throw in the best offensive line in the league and possibly one of the five best in the nation, and you have an offense that will move the ball in every game.  Tackle Marcus Cannon has first round NFL draft potential.  Center Jake Kirkpatrick should make it to a pro roster next year as well (assuming there is a next year in the NFL).

The only drawback in trying to predict the points and yardage for this team is determining how often the bench warmers will be playing for long stretches in their games.  We’ll go with 42+ points and 500+ yards per game.

Defense: Here is the even scarier news: TCU’s defense is even better than their offense.  There is no weakness anywhere on this side.  All three units rank among the best in the nation.  Coach Gary Patterson’s Frogs have given up 12.3, 18.7, 11.3, and 12.8 points in the last four seasons, and it is not impossible for this year’s team to give up single digits in points per game.  The Horned Frogs led the nation in total defense last year by holding teams to 80 yards rushing and 159 yards passing. 

TCU utilizes a 4-2-5 defense, and they have both quality and depth at every position.  Up front, three starters return including two all-conference performers, tackle Cory Grant and end Wayne Daniels.  Even with the loss of All-American Jerry Hughes, this team won’t miss a beat.  His replacement, either Braylon Broughton or Stansly Maponga, will not record 11 ½ sacks, but the other three starters will make up for that lost amount.

The linebacking duo features 1st Team All-MWC Tank Carder.  Carder is one of the best all-around linebackers in college football.  In 2009, he made 89 tackles with 10 for loss.  In pass coverage, he batted away 10 passes and picked off one.  Look for him to compete for a spot on the All-American team this season.

The back five feature a trio of great safeties, but it is the two new cornerbacks that could be the best defenders in the secondary.  Greg McCoy and Jason Teague saw a lot of action last year and combined for four interceptions and seven knocked down passes.

It is tough to improve on number one, but TCU can get better statistically on this side of the ball.  We are going to guess they will give up 10-12 points and 185-225 yards per game.  They could lead the nation in both categories.

Schedule: TCU opens with Oregon State on September 4 at the Cowboys’ Stadium in nearby Arlington.  The Beavers are good and could contend for a Rose Bowl berth, but they are usually a slow-starting team.  We believe TCU will win this game by double digits and continue to roll from there.  They could lead Tennessee Tech by 50 points before halftime.  Game three at home with Baylor will be interesting, and the Bears will be pumped for this game, but the Horned Frogs should score a 17 or more point win.  Game four at SMU comes on a Friday night, and the battle for the Iron Skillet will be heated.  The Mustangs need a little more defense before they can make a game of it with TCU.  The only conference team that could give them a scare is Utah.  The game comes November 6, and it will be at Salt Lake City.  We expect the Horned Frogs to win convincingly in a game that should be on national TV, and it just could propel them into one of the top two spots in the BCS.

We believe there is an outside chance that TCU and Boise State could hook up for a bowl rubber match.  Two years ago, it was the Poinsettia Bowl, and TCU won 17-16.  Last year, it was the Fiesta Bowl, and Boise State exacted revenge with a 17-10 win.  This year, both could return to Glendale, but this one would be for all the marbles.  The SEC, Big 12, and Big Ten champions must all lose one game after October 1 for this to happen, but if it does, it should be the most talked about national championship game in decades.  It could do for the NCAA what the New York Jets’ Super Bowl victory over Baltimore did for the NFL.

Team U N L V  Rebels
               
Head Coach Bobby Hauck
               
Colors Scarlet and Gray
               
City Las Vegas, NV
               
2009 Record              
Conference 3-5
Overall 5-7
               
PiRate Rating 94.1
               
National Rating 78
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 3-5
Overall 5-8

 

Offense: New head coach Bobby Hauck comes to Las Vegas from Montana, where he guided the Grizzlies to the FCS Championship Game three times.  His arrival in Vegas comes at the right time, because former coach Mike Sanford left him a full cupboard on this side of the ball.

UNLV will transition from a shotgun spread offense to an old-fashioned quarterback under center offense.  Senior quarterback Omar Clayton, a former walk-on, comes back for his third season as starter after topping 60% in completions last year.  We believe he will improve his yards per attempt and cut down on interceptions this year.  Backup Mike Clausen saw a lot of action last year, as he is a better runner than Clayton.  Clausen suffered an ankle injury in early fall practice, but he should be okay for the season.

The Rebels had three productive receivers last year, and two of them return this season.  Phillip Payne and Michael Johnson teamed for 101 catches and eight scores.

UNLV returns the two running backs that saw most of the game action last year.  While neither is a threat to rush for 1,000 yards, C J Cox  and Channing Trotter will get the tough yards—three yards on third and two.  Redshirt freshman Bradley Randle is more of an outside threat, and we believe he will become part of the rotation this year.

Four starters return to the offensive line.  The tackles, Matt Murphy and Evan Marchal, rank near the top in the league.

Hauk’s first Vegas attack should average 25-28 points and 360-380 yards per game.  If the Rebels can cut down on turnovers, they could surprise a few teams.

Defense: This is the reason Mike Sanford was let go.  He could never mold together a decent defense, as UNLV gave up more than 32 points per game the last two seasons, while falling one win short of bowl eligibility both times.

The Rebels will be more of an attacking defense this year.  They may give up an occasional big play, but they should force more turnovers as well.  Six of the two-deep from the defensive line return this season.  Tackle Ramsey Feagai tips the scale at 350 pounds!  He won’t get to the quarterback, but he should plug the inside just by holding his ground.  His counterpart at the other tackle is “puny 300-pounder”  Isaako Aaitui.  Opponents will not run many line plunges between their tackles, but the Rebels will continue to search for pass rushing answers, and they will probably resort to a lot of blitzing on passing downs.

Two linebackers return to the starting lineup, and they could finish one-two in tackles this year.  Starr Fuimaono and Ronnie Paulo teamed up for 126 stops a year ago.

The secondary is the strength of this unit.  All four starters come back for another season, and they absolutely must improve on last year’s poor showing when they gave up 236 yards and 65% completions.  They combined for just two interceptions.

Expect immediate improvement in this defense, especially in yards allowed.  We’re looking for the Rebels to give up 25-30 points and 380-420 yards.

Schedule: If they had a couple more patsies, we might be inclined to call UNLV a sleeper team.  The out-of-conference schedule is too difficult.  The Rebels host Wisconsin and Nevada and play at Idaho, West Virginia, and Hawaii.  They should be 2-3, 3-2 at best.  They are better than Colorado State and New Mexico and should win those two games.  We think they could pull one upset, maybe over Wyoming or Air Force and finish with five wins for the third consecutive season.

Team Utah Utes
               
Head Coach Kyle Whittingham
               
Colors Crimson and White
               
City Salt Lake City, UT
               
2009 Record              
Conference 6-2
Overall 10-3
               
PiRate Rating 104.0
               
National Rating 47
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 6-2
Overall 8-4

 

Offense: This will be Utah’s last year in the Mountain West, as they move to the Pac-12 next year.  They should go out with a bang and not a whimper thanks to a strong offense.

Coach Kyle Whittingham welcomes back two experienced quarterbacks this season.  Jordan Wynn will get the nod over Terrance Cain.  Wynn started the final five games of the year, and Utah averaged 34 points in those games. 

Wynn lost his top receiver, David Reed and his 81 receptions for 1,188 yards.  Jereme Brooks caught 56 passes and led with seven touchdowns, while earning 2nd Team All-MWC last year. 

The running game will be special this season with the return of Eddie Wide.  Wide rushed for 1,069 yards and 12 touchdowns, earning 1st Team all-league honors.

Like several of the other top teams in this league, the Utes have a talented and experienced offensive line returning.  Four starters are back including two who made all-conference.  Center Zane Taylor and guard Calb Schlauderaff will hear their names called early in the next NFL draft.

Utah averaged 30 points per game for the season, and we expect that number to top 35 this year.  We also expect total yards to top 400.

Defense: Here is the reason Utah will not give TCU a serious challenge for the title.  The Utes regressed on this side of the ball last year, and they don’t look any better this year.  In fact, we expect them to be even more generous with the loss of their top four tacklers.

Three of four defensive line starters are back.  Tackle Sealver Siliga had 49 tackles with 6 ½ for loss, while getting his hand on four passes.

The linebacking corps has been decimated by graduation.  Rover J J Williams had one start last year and made 20 tackles.  Keep an eye on true freshman V. J. Fehoko, who could emerge as a starter at some point in the season.  He is one of the highest-rated recruits Utah has had.

The secondary has just one starter returning, and that is lightning fast cornerback Brandon Burton.  Burton knocked down 10 passes and intercepted one other last year.  Justin Taplin-Ross saw considerable action at strong safety last year, but he has been shifted to free safety.

Utah will surrender 20-24 points and give up 320-340 yards per game this year, and that will be just enough to keep them from competing with TCU. 

Schedule: Utah opens the season with Big East runner-up Pittsburgh on a Thursday night at Eccles Stadium.  Other non-conference games include road games at Iowa State and Notre Dame and a home game with San Jose State.  The Utes could win all four games, which would help TCU’s strength of schedule when the Frogs come to SLC.  Utah could also lose three of those four and struggle to reach eight wins in their final go around in the conference.  We will call for a 2-2 non-conference record and 6-2 league mark.

Team Wyoming Cowboys
               
Head Coach Dave Christensen
               
Colors Brown and Prairie Gold
               
City Laramie, WY
               
2009 Record              
Conference 4-4
Overall 7-6
               
PiRate Rating 95.6
               
National Rating 71
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 4-4
Overall 6-6

 

Offense: Dave Christensen inherited a veteran club from Joe Glenn and guided the Cowboys to a 7-6 record and bowl win in his first season in Laramie.  His second team should be as good as his first, and his second attack squad should be better.

Quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels earned MWC Freshman of the Year honors last year.  He completed 59% of his passes for more than 1,950 yards and ran for more than 600 yards when you factor out almost three dozen sacks.  His specialty was pulling victory out in the last minutes of games.  Christensen developed Chase Daniel at Missouri, and he Carta-Samuels should rapidly improve in his second season.

The Cowboys had one great receiver and six average ones last year.  Fortunately, the great one returns for his senior year.  David Leonard grabbed 77 passes last year, many of them in tight quarters, as Wyoming was a five yards and cloud of dust passing team.

The running attack had a freshman leading the way in 2009, as Alvester Alexander ran for 640 yards and seven scores. 

The offensive line lost two seasoned veteran starters last year, but two of the three returnees could earn postseason honors.  Guard Sam Sterner is the second or third best in the league at his position, while tackle Clayton Kirven could sneak onto the All-MWC team.

The Cowboys should top 20 points per game for the first time in four years and 325+ yards per game for the first time in five years.

Defense: Seven of the team’s top eight tacklers return this year, so Wyoming’s defense should improve more than the offense.  The strength on this side is the secondary, where all four starters return.  The quartet of Marcell and Tashaun Gipson at cornerback and Shamiel Gary and Chris Prosinski at safety combined for six interceptions and 22 passes broken up.  Prosinski led the Cowboys with 140 tackles, and I am sure Christensen would prefer he wouldn’t have to make so many this season.

Christensen has made a courageous move up front.  Because all three defensive linemen graduated, he took his two outside linebackers and moved them to end and switched to a 4-3.  Gabe Knapton and Josh Biezuns recorded 193 tackles with 14 recorded for lost yardage. 

Middle linebacker Brian Hendricks becomes the lone holdover in the second line with the moving forward of his two comrades.  Hendricks made 116 stops last year.  Ghaali Muhammad made 21 tackles in a reserve role last year and will start at one linebacker spot.  The other will probably go to Keith Lewis, who has three years of reserve experience.  Freshman Devyn Harris could see as much time at that spot.

Look for a little more consistency out of the Wyoming defense this year.  We believe they will give up around 25-27 points and 375-400 yards again this season, but they play a tougher schedule.

Schedule: The Cowboys face three teams that went undefeated in the regular season last year—Boise State at home and Texas and TCU on the road.  Other non-league games include Southern Utah at home and Toledo on the road.  The key to the season are the two games that come after Texas and Boise State and precede TCU.  Wyoming hosts Air Force on September 25 and goes to Toledo the next week.  They must win both of these games and sit at 3-2 at this point in order to get to six wins.  We believe they can do it.  Their two new defensive ends with past linebacker experience just may be able to shut down the option game, and their improving offense should be able to score enough points at the Glass Bowl.

Coming Tomorrow: We begin breaking down the BCS conferences.  First up: The Big East Conference—Five teams have a shot at the conference title.

December 7, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–Regular Season Final

NCAA 2009 College Football Playoff Simulation

The Playoffs You Wished For 

Welcome to season number three of the NCAA College Football Playoff Simulation.  For those reading this blog for the first time, the PiRate College Football Playoffs take the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC as automatic qualifiers.  Any of the remaining conference champions (including the top independent) that finish in the top 16 in the final regular season BCS Standings also qualify automatically.  At-large teams are then selected in the order of BCS finish until 12 total teams have been selected.  The 12 teams are then seeded by BCS ranking with no maximum number of teams per conference.

 

Here is how the 12 teams were selected for the 2009 playoffs.

 

Top Six Conference Champions

ACC–Georgia Tech 11-2           #9 Seed

Big East–Cincinnati 12-0                   #3 Seed

Big Ten–Ohio State 10-2         #8 Seed

Big 12—Texas 13-0                    #2 Seed

Pac-10—Oregon 10-2                #7 Seed

SEC—Alabama 13-0                             #1 Seed

 

Automatic Qualifiers By Virtue Of Top 16 In BCS

MWC—T C U 12-0                       #4 Seed

WAC—Boise State 13-0             #6 Seed

 

Top Four At-Large To Fill Out 12-Team Field

Florida 12-1                                 #5 Seed

Iowa 10-2                                    #10 Seed

Virginia Tech 10-2                     #11 Seed

L S U 9-3                                      #12 Seed

 

The PiRate Playoff System uses the top 11 bowl games to play the four rounds.  The 5th through 12th seeds must play in the first round, while the top four seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals.

Opening Round

 

Outback Bowl    #5 Florida vs. #12 L S U  Dec 17

Alamo Bowl       #6 Boise State vs. #11 Virginia Tech  Dec 18

Holiday Bowl     #7 Oregon vs. #10 Iowa  Dec 19

Gator Bowl         #8 Ohio State vs. #9 Georgia Tech  Dec 19

 

Quarterfinal Round

 

Cotton Bowl                #4 T C U vs. Outback Bowl Winner  Jan 1

Capital One Bowl       #3 Cincinnati vs. Alamo Bowl Winner  Jan 1

Rose Bowl                             #2 Texas vs. Holiday Bowl Winner  Jan 1

Sugar Bowl                  #1 Alabama vs. Gator Bowl Winner  Jan 1

 

Semifinal Round

 

Fiesta Bowl        Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Fiesta Bowl Winner Jan 9

Orange Bowl     Rose Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner Jan 9

 

National Championship Game

 

Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Orange Bowl Winner  Jan 23

 

1. This system awards the four best teams with byes.

2. This system not only keeps the bowls alive, but it gives them more importance and prestige, as 11 bowls decide the title.

3. Instead of undefeated Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State getting left out of the national championship picture, number 13 Penn State is the first team left out.  This is much more fair, as this system will always allow a 12-0 team to have a chance regardless of whether it is Alabama or Boise State.

4. The remaining bowls would not have to settle for 6-6 teams.  The rules could demand at least 7 wins as a minimum.

5. Three of the four rounds would occur during winter break for the schools, thus quashing the myth that players would miss too much time.

 

Check back on December 20 for simulated results of the first round games.

 

Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

 

The Army-Navy game must still be played, but that game doesn’t warrant an extra week’s worth of ratings.  Neither team can break the top 25 even if they win 222-0.  The game still has bowl implications.  If Army wins, the Cadets will advance to the Eagle Bank Bowl to face Temple.  If Navy wins, then UCLA takes Army’s place in Washington, DC.

NCAA Top 25 For December 7, 2009
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Alabama 133.0 13 0
2 Texas 131.4 12 0
3 Florida 128.2 12 1
4 T C U 125.4 12 0
5 Oklahoma 124.0 7 5
6 Boise State 120.9 12 0
7 Virginia Tech 120.5 9 3
8 Oregon 119.8 10 2
9 Georgia Tech 119.4 11 2
10 Nebraska 118.8 9 4
11 Texas Tech 117.9 8 4
12 Penn State 117.7 10 2
13 Ohio State 117.6 10 2
14 Miami (Fla) 117.4 9 3
15 Stanford 116.9 8 4
16 Arkansas 115.5 7 5
17 Southern Cal 115.1 8 4
18 Cincinnati 114.9 12 0
19 Iowa 114.8 10 2
20 Arizona 114.0 8 4
21 Oklahoma State 113.9 9 3
22 Pittsburgh 113.7 9 3
23 Ole Miss 113.2 8 4
24 L  S  U 112.5 9 3
25 Oregon State 112.0 8 4
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Clemson 6-2 8-5 111.7
Florida State 4-4 6-6 107.6
Boston College 5-3 8-4 107.1
Wake Forest 3-5 5-7 104.8
North Carolina State 2-6 5-7 102.7
Maryland 1-7 2-10 93.0
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 6-2 9-3 120.5
Georgia Tech 7-1 11-2 119.4
Miami-FL 5-3 9-3 117.4
North Carolina 4-4 8-4 110.9
Duke 3-5 5-7 98.4
Virginia 2-6 3-9 94.8

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Cincinnati 8-0 12-0 114.9
Pittsburgh 5-2 9-3 113.7
West Virginia 5-2 9-3 106.0
Connecticut 3-4 7-5 105.8
Rutgers 3-4 8-4 102.1
South Florida 3-4 7-5 101.8
Syracuse 1-6 4-8 93.9
Louisville 1-6 4-8 90.5

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Penn State 6-2 10-2 117.7
Ohio State 7-1 10-2 117.6
Iowa 6-2 10-2 114.8
Wisconsin 5-3 9-3 108.5
Michigan State 4-4 6-6 101.5
Northwestern 5-3 8-4 99.3
Purdue 4-4 5-7 99.0
Minnesota 3-5 6-6 97.9
Michigan 1-7 5-7 96.6
Illinois 2-6 3-9 96.0
Indiana 1-7 4-8 90.9

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 6-2 9-4 118.9
Missouri 4-4 8-4 104.8
Kansas 1-7 5-7 103.9
Kansas State 4-4 6-6 99.4
Colorado 2-6 3-9 97.4
Iowa State 3-5 6-6 94.9
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Texas 8-0 13-0 131.4
Oklahoma 5-3 7-5 124.0
Texas Tech 5-3 8-4 117.9
Oklahoma State 6-2 9-3 113.9
Texas A&M 3-5 6-6 103.4
Baylor 1-7 4-8 96.6

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
East Carolina 7-1 9-4 105.2
Central Florida 6-2 8-4 104.1
Southern Mississippi 5-3 7-5 100.9
Marshall 4-4 6-6 92.4
U A B 4-4 5-7 91.0
Memphis 1-7 2-10 83.4
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 6-2 10-3 107.4
Tulsa 3-5 5-7 91.6
U T E P 3-5 4-8 90.8
S M U 6-2 7-5 88.4
Rice 2-6 2-10 76.4
Tulane 1-7 3-9 71.1

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   6-6 105.9
Navy   8-4 100.6
Army   5-6 82.0

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 7-1 9-3 100.7
Ohio U 7-1 9-4 94.9
Buffalo 3-5 5-7 92.4
Bowling Green 6-2 7-5 91.4
Kent St. 4-4 6-6 84.7
Akron 2-6 3-9 81.5
Miami (O) 1-7 1-11 76.3
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Michigan 8-0 11-2 109.0
Northern Illinois 5-3 7-5 95.1
Toledo 3-5 5-7 87.1
Western Michigan 4-4 5-7 86.2
Ball State 2-6 2-10 83.0
Eastern Michigan 0-8 0-12 74.2

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 8-0 12-0 125.4
B Y U 7-1 10-2 111.1
Utah 6-2 9-3 107.7
Air Force 5-3 7-5 100.7
Wyoming 4-4 6-6 87.9
UNLV 3-5 5-7 86.8
Colo. State 0-8 3-9 86.1
S. D. State 3-5 5-7 85.2
New Mexico 1-7 1-11 77.8

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 8-1 10-2 119.8
Stanford 6-3 8-4 116.9
Southern Cal 5-4 8-4 115.1
Arizona 6-3 8-4 114.0
Oregon St. 6-3 8-4 112.0
California 5-4 8-4 108.6
U C L A 3-6 6-6 105.3
Arizona St. 2-7 4-8 102.1
Washington 4-5 5-7 103.6
Wash. St. 0-9 1-11 70.8

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida 8-0 12-1 128.2
Tennessee 4-4 7-5 110.9
South Carolina 3-5 7-5 110.9
Georgia 4-4 7-5 110.4
Kentucky 3-5 7-5 104.4
Vanderbilt 0-8 2-10 93.1
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 8-0 13-0 133.0
Arkansas 3-5 7-5 115.5
Ole Miss 4-4 8-4 113.2
L S U 5-3 9-3 112.5
Auburn 3-5 7-5 107.7
Mississippi State 3-5 5-7 104.2

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 8-0 9-3 99.0
Middle Tennessee 7-1 9-3 96.2
Louisiana-Monroe 5-3 6-6 86.8
Arkansas State 3-5 4-8 85.8
Florida Atlantic 5-3 5-7 84.6
U. of Louisiana 4-4 6-6 83.7
Florida International 3-5 3-9 80.3
North Texas 1-7 2-10 76.4
Western Kentucky 0-8 0-12 73.7

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 8-0 13-0 120.9
Nevada 7-1 8-4 108.6
Louisiana Tech 3-5 4-8 99.8
Fresno State 6-2 7-4 99.0
Utah State 3-5 4-8 91.9
Idaho 4-4 7-5 89.6
Hawaii 3-5 6-6 87.7
San Jose State 1-7 2-10 78.5
New Mexico State 1-7 3-10 71.0

 

Bowl Lineups

Day Date Time EST Bowl Team   Team
Sat 19-Dec 4:30 PM New Mexico Wyoming vs. Fresno State
Sat 19-Dec 8:00 PM St. Petersburg Rutgers vs. Central Florida
Sun 20-Dec 8:15 PM New Orleans Middle Tenn vs. Southern Miss
Tue 22-Dec 8:00 PM Las Vegas B  Y  U vs. Oregon State
Wed 23-Dec 8:00 PM Poinsettia Utah vs. California
Thu 24-Dec 8:00 PM Hawaii Nevada vs. S  M  U
Sat 26-Dec 1:00 PM Little Caesar’s Pizza Marshall vs. Ohio U
Sat 26-Dec 4:30 PM Meineke Car Care North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh
Sat 26-Dec 8:00 PM Emerald Southern Cal vs. Boston College
Sun 27-Dec 8:15 PM Music City Kentucky vs. Clemson
Mon 28-Dec 5:00 PM Independence Georgia vs. Texas A&M
Tue 29-Dec 4:30 PM Eagle Bank Temple vs. Army/UCLA
Tue 29-Dec 8:00 PM Champs Sports Miami-Fl vs. Wisconsin
Wed 30-Dec 4:30 PM Humanitarian Idaho vs. Bowling Green
Wed 30-Dec 8:00 PM Holiday Nebraska vs. Arizona
Thu 31-Dec 11:00 AM Armed Forces Houston vs. Air Force
Thu 31-Dec 2:00 PM Sun Stanford vs. Oklahoma
Thu 31-Dec 3:30 PM Texas Missouri vs. Navy
Thu 31-Dec 6:00 PM Insight.com Iowa State vs. Minnesota
Thu 31-Dec 7:30 PM Chick-fil-A Tennessee vs. Va. Tech
Fri 1-Jan 11:00 AM Outback Auburn vs. Northwestern
Fri 1-Jan 1:00 PM Capital One Penn State vs. L  S  U
Fri 1-Jan 1:00 PM Gator West Va. vs. Florida State
Fri 1-Jan 5:10 PM Rose Oregon vs. Ohio State
Fri 1-Jan 8:00 PM Sugar Florida vs. Cincinnati
Sat 2-Jan 12:00 PM International South Florida vs. Northern Illinois
Sat 2-Jan 2:00 PM Cotton Oklahoma St. vs. Ole Miss
Sat 2-Jan 2:00 PM Papajohns.com Connecticut vs. South Carolina
Sat 2-Jan 5:30 PM Liberty Arkansas vs. East Carolina
Sat 2-Jan 9:00 PM Alamo Texas Tech vs. Michigan St.
Mon 4-Jan 8:00 PM Fiesta Boise State vs. T C U
Tue 5-Jan 8:00 PM Orange Georgia Tech vs. Iowa
Wed 6-Jan 8:00 PM G M A C Troy vs. Central Mich.
Thu 7-Jan 8:00 PM Nat’l Championship Alabama vs. Texas

Coming This Week–What you can do to help bring about a college football playoff

November 30, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 30-December 12

It’s The Week We’ve All Been Waiting For

 

It seems like just last week the college football season kicked off, and here it is the end of the regular season.  A handful of games can potentially scramble the bowl bids that will go out Sunday.  With the holidays bringing the five PiRates together under the same roof in northwest Wisconsin for too much turkey and other booty, we stayed up late gathering information for this special bowl edition.  We think through hard work and phone calls to contacts in multiple locations, we have one of the best views of the bowl games.

This edition will not be a speculative one.  We are actually trying to use information we have gathered to report where we believe the bowls are looking with six days to go.

The BCS Bowls

National Championship Game:  Obviously the winner of this week’s Alabama-Florida game in the SEC Championship will finish number one.  If Texas wins, then everything is rather easy.  The Longhorns will finish number two.  Here’s where things get dicey.  If Texas loses, there will be controversy no matter which team makes it to Pasadena.  TCU would be the logical choice, but Cincinnati could edge ahead of the Horned Frogs with a convincing win over Pittsburgh.  And, if Alabama were to edge Florida by a point or win in overtime, there is still a possibility that Alabama and Florida could meet in a rematch.  Remember something; part of the BCS equation is human voting.  The fourth estate has never been confused for being honest and just.  All it takes is for a few voters to move TCU down one spot, and the fix would be in.

We believe Nebraska’s lack of offense will make this all superfluous.  Texas will win by double digits this week and face the SEC winner for the national championship.  We’ve taken a vote here in the Northwoods; one of us believes Florida will win this week.  One of us believes Alabama will win, and the other three consider it a tossup.  It should be the next “greatest game,” in the mold of Ohio State and Michigan in 2006, Florida State and Florida in 1996, Notre Dame and USC in 1988, and the two greatest late season matchups of #1 vs. #2—Oklahoma and Nebraska in 1971 and Notre Dame and Michigan State in 1966. 

Orange Bowl: The winner of this week’s Clemson-Georgia Tech game for the ACC Championship will automatically go to Miami.  We believe Clemson has a better than 50% chance of pulling off the upset.  In their regular season game, Clemson’s comedy of errors led to the Yellow Jackets getting a big lead.  The Tigers made a great comeback and almost pulled it off.  We thing CU gets revenge this week and heads to Miami with a weak 8-4 record.  The Orange Bowl will get the third selection in the at-large draft if Texas wins.  The Sugar and Fiesta Bowls will have already picked because they will have lost teams to the National Championship Game.  With Alabama or Florida and Iowa already taken off the board, this pick will come down to either the Big East champion, Boise State, or TCU.  If Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh, we don’t see the Bearcats being chosen even though they would be 12-0.  Cincinnati played in Miami last year.  It would come down to TCU and Boise State.  Believe it or not, Boise’s fans travel better, so we will go with Boise State here.

If Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati, the Panthers will probably wind up here, and Boise State would head to the Fiesta Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl: Assuming Texas wins, the Fiesta Bowl will get the second and fourth picks in the at-large draft.  The SEC loser will be off the table, and we believe the best choice for this bowl will be Iowa.  After the Orange Bowl picks Boise State, TCU becomes the logical choice.  If Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati, then Boise State would land here.

Sugar Bowl: Without a doubt, the loser of the SEC Championship will play here if both SEC teams don’t play again in Pasadena.  The Sugar Bowl gets the first pick to replace the number one team being lost to the National Championship Game.  The Sugar Bowl also gets the last pick in the at-large draft.  Since this cannot be a Hobson’s Choice, Cincinnati would land here as the only option if the Bearcats beat Pittsburgh.  If Pittsburgh wins this week, then TCU would land here.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State is already assured of playing here.  The winner of Thursday night’s Oregon-Oregon State game will be the opponent.  There can be no other options this year.

The Top-Tier Non-BCS Bowls

 

Capital One Bowl: LSU seems to be a shoo-in for this bowl after Ole Miss fell to Mississippi State.  Penn State will land here if Iowa is chosen over the Lions for a BCS Bowl.  We see no reason for Penn State fans to believe they can beat out Iowa, especially if the bowl in question is the Fiesta Bowl.

Outback Bowl: The top remaining SEC East team is supposed to play here, while the top remaining SEC West team is supposed to play in the Cotton Bowl. Ole Miss played in Dallas last year, and there was talk that there could be a trade-off with Ole Miss heading to Tampa.  However, late news seems to support the Rebels playing in the Cotton Bowl again, so Tennessee looks like the choice here.  The Big Ten representative will be Wisconsin unless the Badgers lose in Hawaii this weekend.  If that happens, it changes a lot of other bowls. 

Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma State should receive this invitation, since the Cowboys have the second best record, but Nebraska or over Oklahoma could leapfrog them.  For now, we will stick with the most politically correct pick and go with Oklahoma State.  According to late-breaking news, the SEC representative will be Ole Miss. 

Gator Bowl: Notre Dame’s fold means the Big East gets this spot.  The loser of the Pittsburgh-Cincinnati game will end up in Jacksonville.  We believe Georgia Tech will lose to Clemson this week, so the Yellow Jackets will play here.  Our pick then is Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh.  If the Yellow Jackets win the ACC, then it appears that Miami would be the ACC representative.

Holiday Bowl: Southern Cal will get this bid if Oregon beats Oregon State.  If the Beavers beat the Ducks, then Oregon will drop to this bowl.  Nebraska is the logical Big 12 choice for this game.

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Georgia’s win over Georgia Tech will put the Bulldogs at the top of the list for this game, but a second year in a row of fewer hotel rooms needing to be booked (Georgia Tech played here last year) probably sends the Bulldogs somewhere else.  The likely ACC opponent will be Virginia Tech, and the SEC will try to find the best opponent.  Auburn would be the best choice, providing a match-up of offense against defense, but most of their fans can drive to this game.  We’re going with Auburn because officials from this bowl repeatedly attended their games.  Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

The Mid-Level Bowls

 

Las Vegas Bowl: Even though they have been to this bowl four years in a row, it looks like Brigham Young is headed here again.  The Mountain West would like Utah to go here, but BYU will sell their allotment for this one, while the Utes will not.

The Pac-10 opponent could be a host of teams, but we think it will be either Stanford or Oregon State.  One of those two will play here, while the other plays in the Emerald Bowl.  We’ll go with Stanford here.  If Oregon State beats Oregon, then Southern Cal or California might fall to this game.

Meineke Car Care Bowl: This bowl will have a choice of Florida State or Boston College.  With Bobby Bowden announcing his retirement tomorrow, the Seminoles will jump over the Eagles.  Rutgers should get the Big East invitation in this game.

Music City Bowl: This could be an interesting rivalry game.  How about North Carolina facing South Carolina?  Since the Gamecocks joined the SEC in 1991, these two teams have played just once.

Liberty Bowl: Arkansas looks like the best option here.  The Razorbacks will fill up the stadium.  The Conference USA champion automatically plays here, so that means either Houston or East Carolina will be the opponent.  Houston and Arkansas would make this a 100-pass, 4-hour game with maybe 100+ points scored.

Sun Bowl: If Oregon wins Thursday, we believe California will be the Pac-10 representative.  Oklahoma looks like the best fit for the Big 12.

Champs Sports Bowl: If Clemson wins over Georgia Tech, Miami should fall to this bowl.  If Georgia Tech wins over Clemson, then Miami moves up to the Gator and Clemson falls here.  Northwestern should be the Big 10 opponent, but if Wisconsin loses to Hawaii, NU could move up and the Badgers could fall here.

Alamo Bowl: Texas Tech should receive this bid, and their opponent should be Michigan State.  It could take 40 points to win this game.

The Bottom Tier

 

St. Petersburg Bowl: This second year bowl has a chance to make a big splash by bringing together two in-state teams that played each other the last four years but not this year.  Central Florida and South Florida could sell this game out.  We think it is a strong possibility, but the chances for this dream game have dropped some the last few days.

New Mexico Bowl: Unless some back room deals are made, the Mountain West opponent will be Wyoming.  There could be some wheeling and dealing to bring an at-large team here and ship Wyoming to the Humanitarian Bowl, but for now, we’ll keep the Cowboys here.  The WAC opponent will be either Nevada or Fresno State.  If Hawaii upsets Wisconsin, then there will be one extra WAC team available.  For now, we’ll stick with Nevada.

New Orleans Bowl: Troy won the Sunbelt Conference Championship and earns the automatic bid here.  There is a rule where the SBC champion could move to a higher-paying bowl, but for that to happen, the SBC must supply two additional seven-win teams.  There are only two of these teams, so Troy will play here barring some “exception.”   The C-USA opponent should be Southern Mississippi.

Poinsettia Bowl: All signs point to BYU playing here, but we just don’t see the Las Vegas bowl passing over the Cougars for Utah.  So, we’re going against the grain and picking Utah to end up in San Diego.  Arizona looks like the Pac-10 opponent.  If the Wildcats upset USC, then there is a small chance they could move up.

Hawaii Bowl:  Here’s where a giant monkey wrench could be thrown into the bowl games.  Hawaii will get this bid with a win over Wisconsin.  We might be biased, but we think the Badgers can pull this one out.  So, in that case, Fresno State should be the WAC representative.  The hot CUSA choice is SMU, which would bring June Jones back to the island.  Since this bowl desperately wants a Hawaii-SMU game, look for this week’s Hawaii-Wisconsin game to be one of the most partially-biased officiated games.

Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl: This bowl could be in for a mess.  Central Michigan played here last year, so it looks like the Chippewas are headed to Mobile, Alabama.  A bigger problem is that there will not be a Big 10 team available for this game.  Because the at-large pool must take all the seven-win teams before any 6-6 team can be selected, this bowl might have to invite two MAC teams, neither of which are the conference champion.

Ohio U should be the official MAC selection.  This bowl would love to bring Notre Dame here, but even if one 6-6 team can be chosen, it looks like the Irish will vote not to play in any bowls.  Middle Tennessee, at 9-3, would be the best at-large option, but we believe the Blue Raiders will be invited somewhere else first.  So, this bowl will have to look for two MAC teams that have not played.  That leaves Northern Illinois against Bowling Green.

Emerald Bowl: Boston College will be the last available ACC team, and they will fortunate to sell half of their ticket allotment.  Oregon State or Stanford will be the opponent here, and since we pegged Stanford for the Las Vegas Bowl, we’ll put the Beavers here.

Independence Bowl: This bowl is tired of having teams that don’t want to be here, but it will be the case once again with the SEC.  Georgia could very well end up here if the Chick-fil-A looks elsewhere.  The Big 12 representative will come down to either Texas A&M or Iowa State.  If Georgia is chosen to play in Atlanta, then this bowl will jump at the chance to pit Auburn with Iowa State for obvious reasons (Auburn coach Gene Chizik was at Iowa State and Iowa State coach Paul Rhoads was at Auburn).  Under the assumption that Auburn will play in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, we’ll slate Georgia here against Texas A&M.

Eagle Bank Bowl: This second year bowl faces the possibility that neither of its two tie-ins will be able to supply a team.  Army has to beat Navy to earn their bid.  We believe that will happen, and the Cadets will make life easier for this bowl.  The ACC will definitely not have an available team for this bowl, so an at-large team will be selected.  Temple will be making its first bowl trip in almost two decades, so the Owls will be a good choice.  If Army loses to Navy, then a 6-6 team will end up here.  Since Notre Dame will not be available if they vote not to go to a bowl, Marshall may get this bid, even though Coach Mark Snyder just resigned.

Humanitarian Bowl: With Boise State almost assured of making it to a BCS Bowl if Texas beats Nebraska, this bowl will look to Idaho to replace the Broncos.  With TCU earning a BCS bowl, the MWC will not have an available team for this game.  With all the seven-win teams coming from over 1,500 miles away from Boise, it looks like UCLA could become the one 6-6 bowl team and play here.

Armed Forces Bowl:  The MWC team should be Air Force, as it is a no-brainer to have a service academy playing here.  The C-USA opponent should be the loser of the ECU-Houston game this week.  Houston would be a great counterpart.

Texas Bowl: Navy has already secured one of these spots.  Iowa State or Texas A&M will be the opponent depending on which way the Independence bowl goes.

Insight.com Bowl: Minnesota will be the last Big Ten team in the bowl pecking order, so the Gophers will get this bid.  Missouri is the likely Big 12 opponent.

International Bowl:  Connecticut is the logical choice as the Big East representative.  Ohio U may be shipped here, as they cannot play in the Pizza Bowl against either Bowling Green or Northern Illinois (they beat both).

PapaJohns.com Bowl: Kentucky should be the last available SEC team, and the Wildcats will travel well to Birmingham.  West Virginia would be an excellent opponent here.

NCAA Top 25 For November 30, 2009
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Texas 134.2 12 0
2 Florida 133.2 12 0
3 Alabama 128.0 12 0
4 T C U 125.4 12 0
5 Oklahoma 124.0 7 5
6 Boise State 120.9 12 0
7 Virginia Tech 120.5 9 3
8 Oregon 119.7 9 2
9 Georgia Tech 119.3 10 2
10 Texas Tech 117.9 8 4
11 Penn State 117.7 10 2
12 Southern Cal 117.7 8 3
13 Ohio State 117.6 10 2
14 Miami (Fla) 117.4 9 3
15 Stanford 116.9 8 4
16 Nebraska 116.1 9 3
17 Arkansas 115.5 7 5
18 Iowa 114.8 10 2
19 California 114.6 8 3
20 Cincinnati 114.4 11 0
21 Pittsburgh 114.2 9 2
22 Oklahoma State 113.9 9 3
23 Ole Miss 113.2 8 4
24 L  S  U 112.5 9 3
25 Oregon State 112.1 8 3
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Clemson 6-2 8-4 111.8
Florida State 4-4 6-6 107.6
Boston College 5-3 8-4 107.1
Wake Forest 3-5 5-7 104.8
North Carolina State 2-6 5-7 102.7
Maryland 1-7 2-10 93.0
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 6-2 9-3 120.5
Georgia Tech 7-1 10-2 119.3
Miami-FL 5-3 9-3 117.4
North Carolina 4-4 8-4 110.9
Duke 3-5 5-7 98.4
Virginia 2-6 3-9 94.8
Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Cincinnati 7-0 11-0 114.4
Pittsburgh 5-1 9-2 114.2
West Virginia 4-2 8-3 105.9
Connecticut 2-4 6-5 105.8
Rutgers 3-3 8-3 102.2
South Florida 3-3 7-4 101.8
Syracuse 1-6 4-8 93.9
Louisville 1-6 4-8 90.5
Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Penn State 6-2 10-2 117.7
Ohio State 7-1 10-2 117.6
Iowa 6-2 10-2 114.8
Wisconsin 5-3 8-3 105.3
Michigan State 4-4 6-6 101.5
Northwestern 5-3 8-4 99.3
Purdue 4-4 5-7 99.0
Minnesota 3-5 6-6 97.9
Michigan 1-7 5-7 96.6
Illinois 2-6 3-8 96.2
Indiana 1-7 4-8 90.9
Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 6-2 9-3 116.1
Missouri 4-4 8-4 104.8
Kansas 1-7 5-7 103.9
Kansas State 4-4 6-6 99.4
Colorado 2-6 3-9 97.4
Iowa State 3-5 6-6 94.9
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Texas 8-0 12-0 134.2
Oklahoma 5-3 7-5 124.0
Texas Tech 5-3 8-4 117.9
Oklahoma State 6-2 9-3 113.9
Texas A&M 3-5 6-6 103.4
Baylor 1-7 4-8 96.6
Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 6-2 8-4 104.1
East Carolina 7-1 8-4 103.9
Southern Mississippi 5-3 7-5 100.9
Marshall 4-4 6-6 92.4
U A B 4-4 5-7 91.0
Memphis 1-7 2-10 83.4
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 6-2 10-2 108.7
Tulsa 3-5 5-7 91.6
U T E P 3-5 4-8 90.8
S M U 6-2 7-5 88.4
Rice 2-6 2-10 76.4
Tulane 1-7 3-9 71.1
Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   6-6 105.9
Navy   8-4 100.6
Army   5-6 82.0
Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 7-1 9-3 100.7
Ohio U 7-1 9-3 95.0
Buffalo 3-5 5-7 92.4
Bowling Green 6-2 7-5 91.4
Kent St. 4-4 6-6 84.7
Akron 2-6 3-9 81.5
Miami (O) 1-7 1-11 76.3
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Michigan 8-0 10-2 108.9
Northern Illinois 5-3 7-5 95.1
Toledo 3-5 5-7 87.1
Western Michigan 4-4 5-7 86.2
Ball State 2-6 2-10 83.0
Eastern Michigan 0-8 0-12 74.2
Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 8-0 12-0 125.4
B Y U 7-1 10-2 111.1
Utah 6-2 9-3 107.7
Air Force 5-3 7-5 100.7
Wyoming 4-4 6-6 87.9
UNLV 3-5 5-7 86.8
Colo. State 0-8 3-9 86.1
S. D. State 3-5 5-7 85.2
New Mexico 1-7 1-11 77.8
Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 7-1 9-2 119.7
Southern Cal 5-3 8-3 117.7
Stanford 6-3 8-4 116.9
California 5-3 8-3 114.6
Oregon St. 6-2 8-3 112.1
Arizona 5-3 7-4 111.4
U C L A 3-6 6-6 105.3
Arizona St. 2-7 4-8 102.1
Washington 3-5 4-7 97.6
Wash. St. 0-9 1-11 70.8
Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida 8-0 12-0 133.2
Tennessee 4-4 7-5 110.9
South Carolina 3-5 7-5 110.9
Georgia 4-4 7-5 110.4
Kentucky 3-5 7-5 104.4
Vanderbilt 0-8 2-10 93.1
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 8-0 12-0 128.0
Arkansas 3-5 7-5 115.5
Ole Miss 4-4 8-4 113.2
L S U 5-3 9-3 112.5
Auburn 3-5 7-5 107.7
Mississippi State 3-5 5-7 104.2
Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 8-0 9-3 99.0
Middle Tennessee 7-1 9-3 96.2
Louisiana-Monroe 5-3 6-6 86.8
Arkansas State 2-5 3-8 86.2
U. of Louisiana 4-4 6-6 83.7
Florida Atlantic 4-3 4-7 83.2
Florida International 3-4 3-8 81.7
North Texas 1-7 2-10 76.4
Western Kentucky 0-7 0-11 73.3
Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 7-0 12-0 120.9
Nevada 7-1 8-4 108.6
Fresno State 6-2 7-4 99.0
Louisiana Tech 2-5 3-8 97.2
Utah State 3-5 4-8 91.9
Idaho 4-4 7-5 89.6
Hawaii 3-5 6-6 87.7
San Jose State 1-6 2-9 81.1
New Mexico State 1-6 3-9 71.0
This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site      
         
Thursday, December 3   PiRate Spread    
Favorite Underdog Score Mean
Arkansas State WESTERN KY. 10.2 34-24 9
OREGON Oregon State 10.3 38-28 9
         
Friday, December 4   PiRate Spread    
Favorite Underdog Score Mean
Central Michigan  (Det.) Ohio U 14.9 35-20 7
         
Saturday, December 5   PiRate Spread    
Favorite Underdog Score Mean
CONNECTICUT South Florida 7.3 27-20 7
PITTSBURGH Cincinnati 2.8 24-21 0
West Virginia RUTGERS 0.7 28-27 0
Houston EAST CAROLINA 1.8 37-35 5
ILLINOIS Fresno State 0.7 31-30 -3
LOUISIANA TECH San Jose St. 19.1 40-21 16
BOISE STATE New Mexico St. 53.4 63-10 44
SOUTHERN CAL Arizona 10.6 24-13 6
Florida (Atlanta) Alabama 5.2 21-16 2
California WASHINGTON 14.0 35-21 8
FLORIDA INT’L Florida Atlantic 0.5 27-26 1
Texas (Dallas) Nebraska 19.6 27-7 14
Wisconsin HAWAII 13.6 38-24 11
         
Saturday, December 12   PiRate Spread    
Favorite Underdog Score Mean
Navy  (N-Philadelphia) Army 18.6 35-16 8

November 24, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 23-28, 2009

Rivalry Week

Throw The Stats Out The Window

 

This is the college football week where more money is lost by those who don’t know what they are doing and more money is made by those who do know.  Certain rivalry games are just that—real rivalries.  Others are nothing but an annual beating on a little sister.

 

There is another bigger factor to this week’s games.  It’s the bowl factor.  Several teams are still looking for one final win to become bowl eligible.  A 5-6 team hosting an 8-3 team must be looked at quite differently than a 2-9 team hosting a 4-7 team.  The desire to get to 6-6 far outweighs the desire to avoid a 10-loss season.

 

NCAA Top 25 For November 23, 2009
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Texas 137.0 11 0
2 Florida  133.1 11 0
3 Alabama 130.4 11 0
4 T C U 125.3 11 0
5 Oklahoma 122.5 6 5
6 Georgia Tech 121.5 10 1
7 Boise St. 120.8 11 0
8 Oregon 119.7 9 2
9 Va. Tech 119.5 8 3
10 Texas Tech 118.8 7 4
11 Penn St. 117.7 10 2
12 Ohio St. 117.6 10 2
13 Southern Cal 116.9 7 3
14 Nebraska 116.7 8 3
15 Stanford 116.7 7 4
16 Ole Miss 116.5 8 3
17 Miami (Fla.) 116.1 8 3
18 Pittsburgh 115.6 9 1
19 Arkansas 115.5 7 4
20 Okla. St. 115.4 9 2
21 Cincinnati 115.2 10 0
22 Iowa 114.8 10 2
23 California 114.6 8 3
24 Clemson 114.5 8 3
25 L  S  U 112.5 8 3

 

 

     
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

 

Let’s look at the bowl eligible teams by conference as well as the teams needing to win this week to gain bowl eligibility.

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Clemson 6-2 8-3 114.5
Boston College 4-3 7-4 107.8
Florida State 4-4 6-5 107.7
Wake Forest 2-5 4-7 104.0
North Carolina State 1-6 4-7 101.2
Maryland 1-6 2-9 92.3

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Georgia Tech 7-1 10-1 121.5
Virginia Tech 5-2 8-3 119.5
Miami-FL 5-3 8-3 116.1
North Carolina 4-3 8-3 112.4
Duke 3-4 5-6 99.2
Virginia 2-6 3-8 95.8

 

Clemson and Georgia Tech have already clinched their divisions and will meet for the ACC Championship.  Tech edges the Tigers in Atlanta in September, but Clemson gave the game away.

 

Duke needs to beat Wake Forest this week to earn their first bowl in 15 years.  David Cutcliffe is one of the most underrated coaches in the country, and he should receive some national recognition in the Coach of the Year balloting.

 

The ACC has nine automatic bowl bids, and only seven bowl eligible teams as of now.  The GMAC Bowl will need to find an at-large team to fill the vacant position, and if Duke loses this week, the Eagle Bank Bowl will look to the MAC to fill that vacant slot.

 

Big East Conference
 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Pittsburgh 5-0 9-1 115.6
Cincinnati 6-0 10-0 115.2
West Virginia 3-2 7-3 104.5
Connecticut 1-4 5-5 104.1
Rutgers 2-3 7-3 101.1
South Florida 3-3 7-3 103.1
Syracuse 1-5 4-7 95.6
Louisville 1-5 4-7 91.6

 

Regardless of what happens in the Backyard Brawl in Morgantown this weekend, the winner of next week’s Cincinnati-Pittsburgh game will be Big East Champions and automatic BCS Bowl representative.  Cincinnati could still conceivably earn an at-large BCS Bowl bid at 11-1, but that chance is slimmer than slim.

 

Connecticut can gain bowl eligibility with a win at home against Syracuse this weekend, and they would get another chance next week against South Florida if they faltered against the Orangemen.  If the Huskies get that win, then the Big East will have six bowl eligible teams for six guaranteed spots.  Notre Dame could still possibly steal the Sun Bowl/Gator Bowl spot that goes to a Big East team if the Irish beat Stanford, but it would be a disgrace for them to steal a post at 7-5.  We believe Stanford will take care of business and keep Notre Dame out of the bowl picture altogether this year.

 

Big Ten

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Penn State 6-2 10-2 117.7
Ohio State 7-1 10-2 117.6
Iowa 6-2 10-2 114.8
Wisconsin 5-3 8-3 105.3
Michigan State 4-4 6-6 101.5
Northwestern 5-3 8-4 99.3
Purdue 4-4 5-7 99.0
Minnesota 3-5 6-6 97.9
Michigan 1-7 5-7 96.6
Illinois 2-6 3-7 95.4
Indiana 1-7 4-8 90.9

 

The Big 10 season is basically over.  Illinois has a couple of non-conference games remaining, and the only important factor in that is they play Cincinnati this weekend.  Wisconsin goes to Hawaii in two weeks, and the Outback Bowl bid could be riding on them winning the game.

 

It is almost a foregone conclusion that a second Big 10 team, either Iowa or Penn State, will receive an at-large BCS Bowl bid.  So, there will be seven teams available for eight bowls.  The Pizza Bowl (formerly Motor City Bowl) will have to look elsewhere and may be forced to invite two MAC teams.

 

Big 12
North Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 5-2 8-3 116.7
Missouri 3-4 7-4 104.7
Kansas 1-6 5-6 104.0
Kansas State 4-4 6-6 99.4
Colorado 2-5 3-8 96.8
Iowa State 3-5 6-6 94.9

 

 

 

 

South Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Texas 7-0 11-0 137.0
Oklahoma 4-3 6-5 122.5
Texas Tech 4-3 7-4 118.8
Oklahoma State 6-1 9-2 115.4
Texas A&M 3-4 6-5 100.6
Baylor 1-6 4-7 95.7

 

Nebraska and Texas will face off in the Big 12 Championship Game, and the Cornhuskers may have a shot at pulling off a huge upset.  We give the ‘Huskers about a 15% chance of frustrating the Longhorn offense and win ugly.  If so, then another team from the Lone Star State will benefit.

 

After beginning the season at 5-0, Kansas finds itself in a must-win situation against Missouri at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.  They must earn The Brass Drum to earn a bowl bid.

 

The most important game though will be the Oklahoma and Oklahoma State game in Norman.  If the Cowboys beat the Sooners, they will more than likely earn an at-large BCS Bowl Bid at the expense of Boise State.  The Sooners must win to guarantee themselves a winning season.  The PiRate Ratings have had a devil of a time with OU this year.  Even at 6-5, their power rating keeps them in the top 10.  It’s hit or miss with them, as they showed how strong they are when they took Texas to the final gun.

 

If Kansas wins over Missouri, there will be 10 bowl eligible teams for eight guaranteed bowl spots (nine if Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma).  Look for Iowa State to be the odd team out of the mix.

 

Conference USA
East Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 5-2 7-4 104.1
East Carolina 6-1 7-4 103.8
Southern Mississippi 5-2 7-4 101.0
Marshall 4-3 6-5 95.6
U A B 4-3 5-6 91.0
Memphis 1-6 2-9 82.2

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 5-2 9-2 105.2
Tulsa 2-5 4-7 92.8
S M U 5-2 6-5 90.1
U T E P 2-5 3-8 87.6
Rice 2-5 2-9 79.9
Tulane 1-6 3-8 69.4

 

Welcome to the conference where everything changes weekly.  With SMU losing to Marshall, the door opened once again for Houston to ascend to the CUSA Championship Game.  A win over Rice is all that’s needed, but all of a sudden the Owls have found their way.  It could be an interesting game—at least for a half.

 

The East Division championship will be decided this weekend when Southern Miss visits East Carolina.

 

UAB can gain bowl eligibility with a win over  Central Florida, but it may be a moot point.  There are only five guaranteed bowl spots with a sixth if Army fails to earn the Eagle Bank Bowl bid.  Six CUSA teams are already bowl eligible, and the Blazers cannot compete with Marshall or SMU in fanbase.

 

Independents

 

 

 

 

Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame

 

6-5 106.1
Navy

 

8-3 103.2
Army

 

5-6 82.0

 

All three independents are still in the bowl mix, but as of now, only Navy is guaranteed a spot.  Notre Dame must beat Stanford to get to 7-5 and earn priority over every other possible at-large team.  At 6-6, they more than likely will find themselves out of the picture as there will be enough seven-win teams to fill the at-large spots.

 

Army must beat Navy to earn the Eagle Bank Bowl bid.  Navy has won seven in a row in this series, so it should be one of the best in this series in many years.

 

Mid American Conference
East Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 7-0 9-2 103.8
Buffalo 2-5 4-7 92.1
Ohio U 6-1 8-3 91.9
Bowling Green 5-2 6-5 91.0
Kent St. 4-3 6-5 85.0
Akron 1-6 2-9 81.4
Miami (O) 1-7 1-11 76.3

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Michigan 7-0 9-2 108.5
Northern Illinois 5-2 7-4 95.2
Western Michigan 4-3 5-6 88.2
Toledo 3-4 5-6 87.5
Ball State 1-6 1-10 81.0
Eastern Michigan 0-7 0-11 74.3

 

Central Michigan has already clinched the West Division, and the Chippewas will play the winner of this week’s Ohio U-Temple game in the MAC Championship Game. 

 

Two teams will be playing for that important seventh win this week.  Bowling Green hosts Toledo, and Kent State hosts Buffalo.

 

The MAC gets three guaranteed bowl bids and will get a fourth if Duke fails to beat Wake Forest and earn an Eagle Bank Bowl bid.   That’s where the Bowling Green and Kent State games come into play.  Both could earn bowl bids with wins, and one could even play in the Pizza Bowl against another MAC team.

 

Mountain West Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 7-0 11-0 125.3
B Y U 6-1 9-2 111.6
Utah 6-1 9-2 107.2
Air Force 5-3 7-5 100.7
Wyoming 3-4 5-6 87.6
UNLV 2-5 4-7 86.8
Colo. State 0-7 3-8 86.4
S. D. State 2-5 4-7 85.2
New Mexico 1-6 1-10 77.9

 

TCU will manhandle New Mexico this week and then hope that either Texas A&M or Nebraska can upset Texas, Florida State can upset Florida, or Auburn can upset Alabama.  The Horned Frogs need two of the big three teams ahead of them to lose.  The loser of the SEC Championship Game means that either Texas must lose this week or next or the winner of the SEC Championship Game must lose this week.  If one of these events happen, then TCU will be playing for the national championship in January.  It’s hard to believe that this program was once as weak as Syracuse, Vanderbilt, and Washington State are today.

 

The one team still trying to gain bowl eligibility is Wyoming.  The Cowboys must beat Colorado State in Ft. Collins this week, and these two teams truly put the “war” in “Border War.”  It’s not a given that Wyoming can top the 3-8 Rams.

 

Pac-10 Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 7-1 9-2 119.7
Southern Cal 4-3 7-3 116.9
Stanford 6-3 7-4 116.7
California 5-3 8-3 114.6
Oregon St. 6-2 8-3 112.1
Arizona 4-3 6-4 111.4
U C L A 3-5 6-5 106.1
Arizona St. 2-6 4-7 102.1
Washington 2-5 3-7 97.3
Wash. St. 0-8 1-10 71.1

 

For the first time ever, the winner of the “Civil War” game between Oregon and Oregon State will earn the Rose Bowl bid.  The Ducks and Beavers are one of the best rivalry games in college football, and I’d love to have a 50-yard line seat next week in Eugene.

 

The Pac-10 receives six automatic bowl bids, but there are seven bowl eligible teams.  It looks like UCLA will miss out this year unless they can upset USC.  Arizona must beat either Arizona State or USC to get to seven wins.  If both the Bruins and Wildcats win seven games, then expect to see the Pac-10 receiving an extra bid to a western bowl.

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida 8-0 11-0 133.1
Tennessee 3-4 6-5 110.7
Georgia 4-4 6-5 108.2
South Carolina 3-5 6-5 108.2
Kentucky 3-4 7-4 104.6
Vanderbilt 0-8 2-10 93.1

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 7-0 11-0 130.4
Ole Miss 4-3 8-3 116.5
Arkansas 3-4 7-4 115.5
L S U 4-3 8-3 112.5
Auburn 3-4 7-4 105.3
Mississippi State 2-5 4-7 100.9

 

This is a monster conference!  With Alabama and Florida headed to Atlanta to play what will be the “Game Of The Decade” (assuming both win this week), it is a given that the loser will still play in a BCS Bowl.  It isn’t completely out of the realm that if the SEC Championship game goes to overtime or is decided in regulation by a point, and if Texas loses to either Texas A&M or Nebraska, that Alabama and Florida could meet in a rematch for all the marbles.

 

With 10 bowl eligible teams, the SEC will place all 10 in bowls.  There will be a lot of last minute shuffling because there isn’t much difference between team number three and team number 10.

 

Sunbelt Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 7-0 8-3 98.4
Middle Tennessee 6-1 8-3 94.8
Louisiana-Monroe 5-2 6-5 88.2
Arkansas State 1-5 2-8 86.6
U. of Louisiana 4-3 6-5 84.3
Florida Atlantic 3-3 3-7 83.2
Florida International 3-4 3-8 81.7
North Texas 1-6 2-9 76.0
Western Kentucky 0-6 0-10 73.3

 

This league is almost assured of earning a second bowl bid this year.  Troy will play in the New Orleans Bowl, but Middle Tennessee will get an at-large bid somewhere.  Both Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe can get to seven wins, but it will take big upsets for both to do so.  ULL plays Troy, while ULM plays MTSU.

 

Western Athletic Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 6-0 11-0 120.8
Nevada 7-0 8-3 108.7
Fresno State 6-2 7-4 99.0
Louisiana Tech 2-5 3-8 97.2
Utah State 2-5 3-8 91.2
Idaho 4-3 7-4 90.3
Hawaii 3-5 5-6 85.1
San Jose State 0-6 1-9 82.1
New Mexico State 1-5 3-8 70.0

 

Here’s where things should get interesting.  Boise State is a win over Nevada away from being 12-0 and the proverbial odd team out.  If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, the Cowboys will steal the last BCS Bowl bid at the Broncos’ expense.  Then, watch for the United States Government to put their messy fingers into the college football pigpen. 

 

Before we get into this mess, Boise State has to beat Nevada.  The Wolf Pack is not a pushover, and it could easily take 50 or more points to win this game.

 

Of course, if the Sooners win over OSU, then it looks favorable for BSU getting into the field.  Then, they would be competing against a one or two-loss Big East team and maybe a two-loss Georgia Tech team.

 

If Boise State moves up, then the WAC is safe with four bowls for four bowl eligible teams.

 

Hawaii could still sneak into the mix, but they would have to beat Navy and Wisconsin.  We don’t see that happening.

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tuesday, November 24

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
WESTERN MICHIGAN Ball State 10.2 31-21 10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, November 26

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
Texas TEXAS A&M 32.9 54-21 21

 

 

 

 

 

Friday, November 27

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
Rutgers LOUISVILLE 6.5 28-21 5
CINCINNATI Illinois 22.5 37-14 25
CENTRAL MICHIGAN Northern Illinois 16.3 28-12 12
AKRON Eastern Michigan 9.8 34-24 13
BOWLING GREEN Toledo 6 40-34 11
COLORADO STATE Wyoming 1.8 23-21 0
Buffalo KENT STATE 3.9 28-24 -1
Temple OHIO U 8.9 30-21 3
Alabama AUBURN 22.6 33-10 12
Nebraska COLORADO 16.9 24-7 12
TULSA Memphis 13.6 38-24 12
Pittsburgh WEST VIRGINIA 8.6 28-19 3
BOISE STATE Nevada 15.4 45-30 16

 

 

 

 

 

Saturday, November 28

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
CONNECTICUT Syracuse 11.5 28-16 12
Wake Forest DUKE 2.1 24-22 -1
North Carolina N. C. STATE 8.5 26-17 12
Clemson SOUTH CAROLINA 3.8 31-27 6
Ole Miss MISSISSIPPI STATE 13.1 34-20 6
OKLAHOMA Oklahoma State 9.6 38-28 5
T C U New Mexico 50.9 51-0 43
EAST CAROLINA Southern Miss 5.8 34-28 6
Central Florida ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM 10.4 38-28 5
ARKANSAS STATE North Texas 13.3 34-21 8
S M U Tulane 23.7 41-17 18
Marshall U T E P 5.0 35-30 7
Arizona ARIZONA STATE 6.8 27-20 6
FLORIDA Florida State 27.9 38-10 21
Missouri  (n) Kansas 0.7 31-30 3
Boston College MARYLAND 12.5 34-21 10
Miami-Fl SOUTH FLORIDA 10.6 28-17 4
Virginia Tech VIRGINIA 21.2 38-17 15
FLORIDA ATLANTIC Western Kentucky 12.9 27-14 16
Middle Tennessee UL-MONROE 3.6 31-27 4
B  Y  U Utah 7.1 34-27 4
IDAHO Utah State 2.1 34-32 6
Texas Tech (n) Baylor 23.1 42-19 18
WASHINGTON Washington State 28.9 42-13 19
Tennessee KENTUCKY 3.1 27-24 -1
L  S  U Arkansas 0.0 27-27 ot 3
Troy UL-LAFAYETTE 11.1 35-24 9
GEORGIA TECH Georgia 15.6 44-28 16
HOUSTON Rice 27.8 49-21 29
SAN JOSE STATE New Mexico St. 15.1 35-20 7
STANFORD Notre Dame 13.6 42-28 9
U  N  L  V San Diego State 4.6 28-23 5
SOUTHERN CAL U  c  l  a 13.5 28-14 10
Navy HAWAII 14.1 45-31 12

 

 

Bowl Speculations

Bowl Conference Team Conference Team
New Mexico MWC #4 Wyoming WAC #3 Nevada
St. Petersburg Big East #6 Connecticut C-USA #5 Central Fla
New Orleans Sunbelt #1 Troy C-USA #4 Southern Miss
Las Vegas MWC #1 B Y U Pac 10 #4 or 5 Stanford
Poinsettia MWC #2 Utah Pac 10 #6 Arizona
Hawaii WAC Fresno St. C-USA Houston
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #7 (Bowling Green) MAC #1 or 2 Temple
Meineke Car Care ACC #5-6-7 Boston College Big East #3 West Virginia
Emerald Pac 10 #4 or 5 Oregon State ACC #5-6-7 Florida State
Music City SEC #6 or 7 Kentucky ACC #5-6-7 North Carolina
Independence SEC #8 Georgia Big 12 #7 Kansas State
Eagle Bank ACC #8 Duke Army/C-USA (Marshall)
Champs Sports ACC #4 Miami-Fl Big 10 #5 Northwestern
Humanitarian WAC #1 Idaho MWC (Kent State)
Holiday Big 12 #3 Nebraska Pac 10 #2 Southern Cal
Armed Forces C-USA #3 S M U MWC #3 Air Force
Sun Pac 10 #3 California Big 12 #5 or Big East #2 Oklahoma
Texas Big 12 #8 Texas A&M Navy or C-USA NAVY
Insight.com Big 12 #6 Missouri Big 10 #6 Minnesota
Chick-fil-A SEC #5 Auburn ACC #2 Va. Tech
Outback SEC #3 or 4 Tennessee Big 10 #3 Wisconsin
Capital One Big 10 #2 Iowa SEC #2 Ole Miss
Gator Big East #2 or Big 12 #5 Cincinnati ACC #3 Ga. Tech
Rose BCS Pac10 Stanford BCS Big 10 OHIO STATE 
Sugar BCS SEC (Florida) BCS At-Large Boise State
International Big East #5 Rutgers MAC #3 Ohio U
Cotton Big 12 #2 Nebraska SEC #3 or 4 L S U
Papajohns.com Big East #4 South Florida SEC #9 South Carolina
Liberty SEC #6 or 7 Arkansas C-USA #1 East Carolina
Alamo Big 10 #4 Texas Tech Big 12 #4 Michigan St.
Fiesta BCS Big 12 (Penn State) BCS At-Large T C U
Orange BCS ACC Clemson BCS At-Large Pittsburgh
G M A C ACC #9 (Middle Tenn) MAC Central Mich.
National Championship *** BCS #1 *** Alabama *** BCS #2 *** Texas

November 16, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 17-21, 2009

Down The Stretch They Come

 

November has certainly already seen a host of upsets in the college football world, and we here at the PiRate Ratings believe big surprises are still to come.  With six undefeated teams (Florida, Alabama, Texas, TCU, Cincinnati, and Boise State), we see at least two falling before the bowl season.  Obviously, either Alabama or Florida must lose. The last time five teams finished the regular season winning every game was 1951, when Maryland, Tennessee, Michigan State, San Francisco, and Princeton did the trick.

 

The first wave of rivalry games begin this week, topped off by “The Big Game” in Palo Alto between Stanford and Cal.  The Cardinal now have a shot at winning the Pac-10 and earning a trip to Pasadena to face Ohio State.

 

Speaking of the Buckeyes, Ohio State ventures to the Big House to take on Michigan.  The Wolverines must win to gain bowl eligibility, and a loss will send several dozen more Maize & Blue fans to www.firerrod.com.

 

NCAA Top 25 For November 16, 2009
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Texas 136.9 10 0
2 Florida  131.9 10 0
3 Alabama 129.9 9 0
4 Oklahoma 129.5 6 4
5 T C U 125.0 10 0
6 Georgia Tech 121.5 10 1
7 Boise St. 120.2 10 0
8 Oregon 119.9 8 2
9 Va. Tech 118.6 7 3
10 Stanford 118.0 7 3
11 Ohio St. 117.9 9 2
12 Nebraska 117.5 7 3
13 Okla. St. 117.0 8 2
14 Southern Cal 116.9 7 3
15 Ole Miss 116.7 7 3
16 Miami (Fla.) 116.1 7 3
17 Pittsburgh 115.6 9 1
18 Clemson 115.4 7 3
19 Cincinnati 115.2 10 0
20 Penn St. 115.1 9 2
21 Iowa 115.1 9 2
22 Arkansas 115.0 6 4
23 California 113.3 7 3
24 L  S  U 112.3 8 2
25 Texas Tech 112.3 6 4

 

 

     
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Clemson 5-2 7-3 115.4
Boston College 4-2 7-3 110.6
Florida State 3-4 5-5 109.3
Wake Forest 2-5 4-7 104.0
North Carolina State 1-5 4-6 102.1
Maryland 1-5 2-8 90.7

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Georgia Tech 7-1 10-1 121.5
Virginia Tech 4-2 7-3 118.6
Miami-FL 4-3 7-3 116.1
North Carolina 3-3 7-3 109.6
Duke 3-3 5-5 99.2
Virginia 2-5 3-7 94.9

 

Big East Conference
 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Pittsburgh 5-0 9-1 115.6
Cincinnati 6-0 10-0 115.2
West Virginia 3-2 7-3 104.5
Rutgers 2-2 7-2 104.2
Connecticut 1-4 4-5 103.1
South Florida 2-3 6-3 102.9
Syracuse 0-5 3-7 92.5
Louisville 1-4 4-6 91.8

 

Big Ten

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 6-1 9-2 117.9
Penn State 5-2 9-2 115.1
Iowa 5-2 9-2 115.1
Wisconsin 5-2 8-2 106.1
Michigan State 4-3 6-5 104.1
Northwestern 4-3 7-4 98.5
Minnesota 3-4 6-5 97.6
Purdue 3-4 4-7 96.8
Michigan 1-6 5-6 96.3
Illinois 2-6 3-7 95.4
Indiana 1-6 4-7 93.1

 

Big 12
North Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 4-2 7-3 117.5
Missouri 2-4 6-4 104.6
Kansas 1-5 5-5 104.1
Kansas State 4-3 6-5 98.6
Colorado 2-4 3-7 95.2
Iowa State 3-4 6-5 95.0

 

 

 

 

South Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Texas 6-0 10-0 136.9
Oklahoma 4-2 6-4 129.5
Oklahoma State 5-1 8-2 117.0
Texas Tech 3-3 6-4 112.3
Baylor 1-5 4-6 101.2
Texas A&M 2-4 5-5 95.1

 

Conference USA
East Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
East Carolina 5-1 6-4 103.8
Southern Mississippi 4-2 6-4 100.9
Central Florida 4-2 6-4 98.1
Marshall 3-3 5-5 95.5
U A B 4-2 5-5 91.0
Memphis 1-5 2-8 83.0

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 4-2 8-2 104.4
Tulsa 2-4 4-6 92.9
S M U 5-1 6-4 90.2
U T E P 2-4 3-7 89.9
Rice 1-5 1-9 77.3
Tulane 1-5 3-7 75.4

 

Independents

 

 

 

 

Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame

 

6-4 107.1
Navy

 

8-3 103.2
Army

 

3-7 81.9

 

Mid American Conference
East Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 6-0 8-2 101.4
Ohio U 5-1 7-3 91.3
Bowling Green 4-2 5-5 90.6
Buffalo 1-5 3-7 90.5
Kent St. 4-2 5-5 87.4
Akron 1-5 2-8 81.8
Miami (O) 1-6 1-10 77.9

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Michigan 6-0 8-2 107.1
Northern Illinois 5-1 7-3 95.8
Western Michigan 4-3 5-6 88.2
Toledo 2-4 4-6 86.3
Ball State 1-5 1-9 82.4
Eastern Michigan 0-6 0-10 75.5

 

Mountain West Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 6-0 10-0 125.0
B Y U 5-1 8-2 110.9
Utah 5-1 8-2 105.8
Air Force 5-2 7-4 101.3
Colo. State 0-6 3-7 88.5
Wyoming 3-3 5-5 87.9
UNLV 2-5 4-7 86.8
S. D. State 2-4 4-6 86.6
New Mexico 0-6 0-10 75.8

 

Pac-10 Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 6-1 8-2 119.9
Stanford 6-2 7-3 118.0
Southern Cal 4-3 7-3 116.9
California 4-3 7-3 113.3
Arizona 4-2 6-3 111.2
Oregon St. 5-2 7-3 109.5
U C L A 2-5 5-5 105.6
Arizona St. 2-5 4-6 102.6
Washington 2-5 3-7 97.3
Wash. St. 0-7 1-9 73.7

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida 8-0 10-0 131.9
Tennessee 2-4 5-5 111.3
Georgia 4-3 6-4 109.2
South Carolina 3-5 6-5 108.2
Kentucky 2-4 6-4 103.6
Vanderbilt 0-7 2-9 92.5

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 7-0 10-0 129.9
Ole Miss 3-3 7-3 116.7
Arkansas 2-4 6-4 115.0
L S U 4-2 8-2 112.3
Auburn 3-4 7-4 105.3
Mississippi State 2-4 4-6 101.4

 

Sunbelt Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 6-0 7-3 97.6
Middle Tennessee 5-1 7-3 92.4
Louisiana-Monroe 5-1 6-4 89.3
Arkansas State 1-4 2-7 89.0
Florida Atlantic 3-2 3-6 84.0
U. of Louisiana 3-3 5-5 83.2
Florida International 3-4 3-7 82.9
North Texas 1-6 2-8 76.1
Western Kentucky 0-6 0-10 73.3

 

Western Athletic Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 5-0 10-0 120.2
Nevada 6-0 7-3 107.1
Fresno State 5-2 6-4 99.7
Louisiana Tech 2-4 3-7 96.5
Utah State 2-4 3-7 91.8
Idaho 4-3 7-4 90.3
Hawaii 2-5 4-6 85.0
San Jose State 0-5 1-8 82.2
New Mexico State 1-4 3-7 71.6

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wednesday, November 18

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
Central Michigan BALL STATE 22.2 38-16 20
Buffalo MIAMI (O) 10.1 27-17 3

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, November 19

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
OKLAHOMA STATE Colorado 24.8 38-13 21

 

 

 

 

 

Friday, November 20

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
BOWLING GREEN Akron 11.5 35-23 15
TOLEDO E  M  U 13.8 41-27 15
Boise State UTAH STATE 25.4 35-10 25

 

 

 

 

 

Saturday, November 21

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
Ohio State MICHIGAN 18.1 35-17 16
Northern Illinois OHIO U 1.5 26-24 -1
CLEMSON Virginia 23.8 34-10 19
Wisconsin NORTHWESTERN 4.6 28-23 7
IOWA Minnesota 20.5 35-14 14
SOUTH FLORIDA Louisville 14.1 24-10 12
Rutgers SYRACUSE 8.7 30-21 12
Purdue INDIANA 1.0 35-34 0
FLORIDA STATE Maryland 21.6 40-18 18
BOSTON COLLEGE North Carolina 4.0 21-17 3
VIRGINIA TECH North Carolina State 19.8 34-14 21
MISSOURI Iowa State 12.6 34-21 9
TENNESSEE Vanderbilt 21.8 28-6 19
GEORGIA Kentucky 8.6 33-24 6
TEMPLE Kent State 17.0 38-21 13
T  c  u WYOMING 34.1 44-10 26
ARKANSAS Mississippi State 16.6 45-28 10
NOTRE DAME Connecticut 7.0 35-28 6
Oregon State WASHINGTON STATE 33.1 40-7 25
Penn State MICHIGAN STATE 8.0 31-23 5
U  C  L  A Arizona State 6.0 27-21 5
STANFORD California 7.2 30-23 7
OLE MISS L  s  u 7.4 31-24 1
B  Y  U Air Force 12.6 27-14 7
EAST CAROLINA U  a  b 15.8 37-21 10
NEBRASKA Kansas State 22.4 31-9 15
Oklahoma TEXAS TECH 13.2 34-21 2
Baylor TEXAS A&M 3.1 27-24 -5
U  t  e  p RICE 10.1 37-27 5
UTAH San Diego State 22.2 35-13 21
FRESNO STATE La. Tech 6.5 31-24 11
Colorado State NEW MEXICO 9.7 24-14 8
Oregon ARIZONA 5.4 31-26 4
MARSHALL S  m  u 8.3 31-23 4
SOUTHERN MISS Tulsa 11.0 31-20 9
TEXAS Kansas 36.3 50-14 29
MIAMI (FLA) Duke 19.9 37-17 17
HOUSTON Memphis 24.4 55-31 23
CENTRAL FLORIDA Tulane 25.7 40-14 20
Nevada NEW MEXICO ST. 32.8 50-17 22
SAN JOSE ST. Hawaii 0.7 28-27 -3
FLORIDA Florida Int’l 52.0 52-0 41
Army NORTH TEXAS 2.3 24-22 0
TROY Florida Atlantic 16.6 34-17 14
UL-Monroe UL-LAFAYETTE 3.6 27-23 2
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Arkansas State 6.4 28-22 13

 

Bowl Speculating

 

Ohio State has become the second team to know where they will be bowling this year and the first team to clinch a BCS Bowl Bid.  However, the weekend may have muddied up the bowl projections more than helped clear things up.

 

The Atlantic Coast Conference

Georgia Tech continues to impress every week, and the Yellow Jackets have clinched the Coastal Division championship.  Clemson needs only to beat Virginia to earn the Atlantic Division title.  It is our opinion that Clemson will beat Georgia Tech in a rematch for the ACC Championship and Orange Bowl Bid.  At 11-2, the Yellow Jackets could still gain an at-large BCS Bowl Bid, but it would have to come at the expense of a 13-0 Boise State team.  With Wake Forest being ousted from bowl talk, it looks like the ACC will come up at least one team short and possibly two.  Duke must beat Wake Forest to get to six wins and make it to their first bowl in 15 years.

 

1. Orange Bowl—Clemson

2. Chick-fil-A—Virginia Tech

3. Gator—Georgia Tech

4. Champs Sports—Miami (Fl)

5. Music City—North Carolina

6. Meineke Car Care—Boston College

7. Emerald—Florida State

8. Eagle Bank—Duke

9. GMAC—No Team Available

 

The Big East

Cincinnati just escaped against West Virginia, while Pittsburgh handled Notre Dame.  The Panthers game with the Mountaineers in the “Backyard Brawl” actually doesn’t matter this year.  The winner of the Pitt-Cincinnati game wins the championship.  We’ll go with Coach Dave Wannstedt’s Panthers.  Cincinnati could qualify as an at-large BCS team at 11-1, but we don’t think the big bowls will take the Bearcats.  That might be the final straw for Brian Kelly in the Queen City.  He may bolt for South Bend or even Ann Arbor.

 

1. Orange Bowl—Pittsburgh

2. Sun—Cincinnati

3. Meineke Car Care—Rutgers

4. Papa John’s—South Florida

5. International—West Virginia

6. St. Petersburg—Connecticut

 

The Big Ten

Ohio State clinched the Big Ten Championship and Rose Bowl bid with the overtime win over Iowa.  It now looks like the second best team in this league will earn a last-minute BCS at-large bid.  If Iowa wins this week against Minnesota, the Hawkeyes should get that bid.

 

Michigan will not be bowl eligible after losing at home to Ohio State this weekend, so if the Big 10 gets a second BCS bowl team, they will come up one short.

 

1. Rose-OHIO STATE (accepted bid)

2. Fiesta—Iowa

3. Capital One—Wisconsin

4. Outback—Penn State

5. Alamo—Michigan State

6. Champs Sports—Minnesota

7. Insight—Northwestern

8. Pizza—No team available

 

The Big 12

Texas should quickly dispose of Kansas and Texas A&M to reach the Big 12 Title game, but a possible game against Nebraska could be quite interesting.  For now, we will stick with the notion that the Longhorns will run the table and make it to the National Championship Game.  If the Cornhuskers win out, they should still garner the Cotton Bowl bid if they lose to Texas.  With Iowa State winning its sixth game, and the only chance this conference has of getting a second team in the BCS being a Nebraska upset of Texas, we believe there will be one excess team.  However, that extra team will be 6-6 and out of luck.

 

1. National Championship—Texas

2. Cotton–Nebraska

3. Holiday—Oklahoma

4. Alamo—Oklahoma State

5. Sun—Missouri

6. Insight—Texas Tech

7. Independence—Kansas State

8. Texas—Texas A&M

 

Iowa State out of luck at 6-6

 

Conference USA

As Chester A. Riley would have said, “What a revoltin’ development this is!”  Houston’s loss to Central Florida has thrust SMU into first place in the West Division.  If Coach June Jones’ Mustangs beat Marshall this week, they are in the CUSA Championship Game.  Central Florida is now thickly in the East Division race, but it is now a four-team battle.  If UAB beats East Carolina and UCF, the Blazers would win the division title.  Who would have ever thought that on November 16, the CUSA Championship Game could still be a battle between SMU and UAB?

 

1. Liberty—East Carolina

2. Hawaii—Houston

3. Armed Forces—S M U

4. New Orleans—Southern Miss

5. St. Petersburg—Central Florida

 

Marshall & UAB at 6-6 will miss out on bowl bids

 

Independents

There’s no confusion here.  Navy has earned a Texas Bowl bid.  Army has failed to earn the Eagle Bank Bowl bid that is reserved for them this year.  Notre Dame’s BCS bowl hopes are gone and barring wins over both Connecticut and Stanford, the Irish won’t earn the Sun or Gator Bowl bids that they could receive.  However, with one more win, they become the top non-BCS at-large bowl hopeful.

 

1. Texas—Navy

2. Eagle Bank—Notre Dame (at-large)

 

Mid-American

The MAC will benefit from all the bowls that will need to seek at-large participants.  This league receives three automatic bowl bids, but we expect five schools to go bowling.  Central Michigan played in the Motor City Bowl last year (now the Pizza Bowl), so the Chippewas will probably be sent south to Mobile.

 

The Pizza Bowl will not have a Big 10 representative, and while they’d love to lure Notre Dame, the Irish will go to the highest bidder.  That will force them to invite a second MAC team.

 

1. G M A C—Central Michigan

2. Pizza—Temple

3. International—Ohio U

4. Humanitarian—Northern Illinois (at-large)

5. Pizza—Bowling Green (at-large)

 

Mountain West

T C U plays at Wyoming this weekend, and the Cowboys will be ready to give them all they can handle.  We think TCU will win by double digits, but it is one of those ambush situations.  A home finale with winless New Mexico will be little more than a scrimmage.

 

BYU and Utah close the regular season with their rivalry match, and the winner should wind up in Vegas.  Air Force has wrapped up the fourth bowl bid, and Wyoming is one win away from sneaking in as the fifth.  We expect them to beat Colorado State and get it.

 

1. Fiesta—T C U

2. Las Vegas—Utah

3. Poinsettia—B Y U

4. Armed Forces—Air Force

5. New Mexico—Wyoming

6. Humanitarian—No team available

 

Pac-10

This is another interesting race.  If Arizona beats Oregon this week, and Stanford beats California, then Arizona, Oregon, Oregon State, and Stanford will be tied for first with two conference losses.  Arizona would then win the Pac-10 and get the Rose Bowl bid.  However, the Wildcats must finish at Arizona State and at Southern Cal, and we see them failing to get to 7-2.  If Arizona beats Oregon, and Stanford beats Cal, then the Cardinal would be heading to Pasadena, unless Oregon State could win at Oregon “The Civil War.”  At 7-2, Oregon State gets the tiebreaker over Stanford.

 

1. Rose—Stanford

2. Holiday—Oregon

3. Sun—Southern Cal

4. Las Vegas—Arizona

5. Emerald—Oregon State

6. Poinsettia—California

 

U C L A will finish 6-6 and not receive a bid

 

Southeastern

Alabama will practice with Chattanooga this week, and then finish the regular season at Auburn.  It could be interesting for a half, but the Tide will head to Atlanta at 12-0.  Florida also has a breather with Florida International, but they have a tough finale with Florida State.  We believe the Seminoles have a small shot at pulling off the big upset.

 

With two BCS bowl bids virtually a certainty, the SEC will send 10 teams to bowls this year.

 

1. National Championship—Alabama

2. Sugar—Florida

3. Capital One—Ole Miss

4. Cotton—L S U

5. Outback—Tennessee

6. Chick-fil-A—Auburn

7. Music City—Georgia

8. Liberty—Arkansas

9. Independence—South Carolina

10. Papa John’s—Kentucky

 

Sunbelt

Troy has just about clinched the conference championship, so they will receive the sole automatic bowl bid.  Middle Tennessee has already reached the magic seven win mark, so the Blue Raiders will get an at-large bid.

 

1. New Orleans—Troy

2. G M A C—Middle Tennessee (at-large)

 

Western Athletic

Boise State cannot chalk up a perfect regular season just yet.  The Broncos still must face the most potent offense in the nation.  Nevada must play at Bronco Stadium, so Boise State should win and finish 13-0.  We strongly believe that while the BCS Bowls would rather invite a two-loss team from one of the big six conferences, they will have their arms pulled and be highly coerced into inviting a second non-BCS team into the BCS Bowl structure.  It’s funny how the threat of a Justice Department investigation can determine bowl participants.

 

1. Sugar—Boise State

2. Hawaii—Fresno State

3. New Mexico—Nevada

4. Humanitarian—Idaho

 

  • * = At-large selection
  • ALL CAPS AND BOLD = ACCEPTED BID
Bowl Team vs. Team
New Mexico Wyoming vs. Nevada
St. Petersburg Connecticut vs. Central Fla
New Orleans Troy vs. Southern Miss
Las Vegas Utah vs. Arizona
Poinsettia B Y U vs. California
Hawaii Fresno St. vs. Houston
Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowling Green * vs. Temple
Meineke Car Care Boston College vs. Rutgers
Emerald Oregon State vs. Florida State
Music City Georgia vs. North Carolina
Independence South Carolina vs. Kansas State
Eagle Bank Duke vs. Notre Dame *
Champs Sports Miami-Fl vs. Northwestern
Humanitarian Idaho vs. Northern Illinois *
Holiday Oklahoma vs. Oregon
Armed Forces S M U vs. Air Force
Sun Southern Cal vs. Missouri
Texas Texas A&M vs. NAVY
Insight.com Texas Tech vs. Minnesota
Chick-fil-A Auburn vs. Va. Tech
Outback Tennessee vs. Penn State
Capital One Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss
Gator Cincinnati vs. Ga. Tech
Rose Stanford vs. OHIO STATE
Sugar Florida vs. Boise State
International West Virginia vs. Ohio U
Cotton Nebraska vs. L S U
Papajohns.com South Florida vs. Kentucky
Liberty Arkansas vs. East Carolina
Alamo Oklahoma St. vs. Michigan St.
Fiesta Iowa vs. T C U
Orange Clemson vs. Pittsburgh
G M A C Middle Tennessee * vs. Central Mich.
National Championship Alabama vs. Texas

 

November 10, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 10-15, 2009

Can This Week Be As Wacky As Last Week?

 

It happens every year; it usually happens in November, so it shouldn’t have come as a surprise.  After two thirds of the college season was in the books, teams all of a sudden started acting inconsistently.  Teams that couldn’t catch a break started catching breaks.  Teams that caught all the breaks stopped catching them.

 

Teams that had been given up for dead showed a new life.  Teams that consistently did something that made themselves very predictable (to the wagering public) did something completely different.

 

Iowa’s loss was coming.  You cannot win games every week by pulling them out in the final minutes.  When quarterback Ricky Stanzi went down with an injury, there was going to be no last minute heroics this time.

 

All of a sudden, Ron Zook’s Illinois team looks like they were supposed to look like in August.  Stranger things have happened, but it isn’t impossible that they could finish 6-6 after starting 1-6.  It isn’t probable either, because the Illini still have to play Cincinnati and Fresno State outside the Big 10 as well as Northwestern this week to close out conference play.

 

The two really consistent teams are the two BCS bowl-crashing wannabes.  TCU and Boise State both look invincible at the moment.  Both have tricky games this week.  The Horned Frogs get a one-loss Utah team, while Boise has to worry with in-state rival and bowl eligible Idaho.

 

NCAA Top 25 For November 9, 2009
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Texas 136.5 9 0
2 Florida  132.9 9 0
3 Alabama 129.2 8 0
4 Oklahoma 127.5 5 4
5 T C U 123.8 9 0
6 Southern Cal 120.4 7 2
7 Boise St. 119.9 9 0
8 Oregon 119.7 7 2
9 Georgia Tech 118.9 9 1
10 Ohio St. 118.4 8 2
11 Va. Tech 118.0 6 3
12 Okla. St. 117.0 7 2
13 Nebraska 116.9 6 3
14 Penn St. 116.8 8 2
15 Miami (Fla.) 116.7 7 2
16 Cincinnati 115.5 9 0
17 Pittsburgh 115.5 8 1
18 Stanford 115.0 6 3
19 Iowa 114.6 9 1
20 Clemson 114.2 6 3
21 Ole Miss 114.1 6 3
22 Tennessee 113.9 5 4
23 L  S  U 113.6 7 2
24 Arkansas 113.5 5 4
25 California 112.6 6 3

 

 

     
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Clemson 4-2 6-3 114.2
Boston College 3-2 6-3 110.8
Florida State 2-4 4-5 108.2
Wake Forest 2-4 4-6 105.1
North Carolina State 1-4 4-5 103.3
Maryland 1-4 2-7 91.3

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Georgia Tech 6-1 9-1 118.9
Virginia Tech 3-2 6-3 118.0
Miami-FL 4-2 7-2 116.7
North Carolina 2-3 6-3 109.0
Duke 3-2 5-4 101.8
Virginia 2-3 3-6 94.7

 

Big East Conference
 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Cincinnati 5-0 9-0 115.5
Pittsburgh 5-0 8-1 115.5
South Florida 2-2 6-2 105.3
West Virginia 3-1 7-2 104.2
Connecticut 1-4 4-5 103.1
Rutgers 1-2 6-2 101.8
Syracuse 0-4 3-6 92.2
Louisville 0-4 3-6 92.1

 

Big Ten

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 5-1 8-2 118.4
Penn State 4-2 8-2 116.8
Iowa 5-1 9-1 114.6
Wisconsin 4-2 7-2 105.1
Michigan State 3-3 5-5 103.9
Minnesota 3-4 5-5 97.9
Northwestern 3-3 6-4 97.7
Michigan 1-5 5-5 97.3
Purdue 3-3 4-6 97.0
Illinois 2-5 3-6 96.2
Indiana 1-5 4-6 91.4

 

Big 12
North Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 3-2 6-3 116.9
Kansas 1-4 5-4 104.7
Missouri 1-4 5-4 102.8
Kansas State 4-2 6-4 100.4
Colorado 2-3 3-6 95.7
Iowa State 2-4 5-5 94.5

 

 

 

 

South Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Texas 6-0 9-0 136.5
Oklahoma 3-2 5-4 127.5
Oklahoma State 4-1 7-2 117.0
Texas Tech 3-2 6-3 112.3
Baylor 1-4 4-5 101.6
Texas A&M 2-3 5-4 99.1

 

Conference USA
East Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Southern Mississippi 3-2 5-4 100.7
East Carolina 4-1 5-4 99.8
Marshall 3-2 5-4 95.7
Central Florida 3-2 5-4 95.3
U A B 3-2 4-5 90.3
Memphis 1-4 2-7 83.7

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 4-1 8-1 106.2
Tulsa 2-3 4-5 96.9
U T E P 2-3 3-6 90.1
S M U 4-1 5-4 90.0
Rice 0-5 0-9 76.7
Tulane 1-4 3-6 75.5

 

Independents

 

 

 

 

Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame

 

6-3 107.7
Navy

 

7-3 102.6
Army

 

3-6 82.2

 

Mid American Conference
East Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-0 7-2 99.2
Buffalo 1-4 3-6 91.7
Ohio U 4-1 6-3 90.1
Bowling Green 3-2 4-5 89.3
Kent St. 4-2 5-5 87.4
Akron 1-4 2-7 84.0
Miami (O) 1-5 1-9 79.2

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Michigan 5-0 7-2 106.7
Northern Illinois 4-1 6-3 96.9
Western Michigan 3-3 4-6 87.5
Toledo 2-3 4-5 86.7
Ball State 1-4 1-8 81.3
Eastern Michigan 0-5 0-9 76.2

 

Mountain West Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 5-0 9-0 123.8
B Y U 4-1 7-2 112.2
Utah 5-0 8-1 106.5
Air Force 4-2 6-4 100.0
Colo. State 0-6 3-7 88.5
UNLV 2-4 4-6 88.1
S. D. State 2-3 4-5 87.8
Wyoming 2-3 4-5 86.7
New Mexico 0-5 0-9 74.5

 

Pac-10 Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Southern Cal 4-2 7-2 120.4
Oregon 5-1 7-2 119.7
Stanford 5-2 6-3 115.0
California 3-3 6-3 112.6
Arizona 4-1 6-2 111.9
Oregon St. 4-2 6-3 108.1
U C L A 1-5 4-5 103.5
Arizona St. 2-4 4-5 102.8
Washington 2-4 3-6 98.7
Wash. St. 0-6 1-8 75.8

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida 7-0 9-0 132.9
Tennessee 2-3 5-4 113.9
Georgia 3-3 5-4 109.2
South Carolina 3-4 6-4 106.7
Kentucky 1-4 5-4 102.9
Vanderbilt 0-6 2-8 93.2

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 6-0 9-0 129.2
Ole Miss 2-3 6-3 114.1
L S U 4-2 7-2 113.6
Arkansas 2-4 5-4 113.5
Auburn 3-3 7-3 105.3
Mississippi State 2-3 4-5 101.6

 

Sunbelt Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 6-0 7-2 99.1
Middle Tennessee 4-1 6-3 91.8
Louisiana-Monroe 4-1 5-4 90.6
Arkansas State 1-3 2-6 89.7
U. of Louisiana 3-2 5-4 83.8
Florida Atlantic 2-2 2-6 83.3
Florida International 2-4 2-7 82.8
North Texas 1-5 2-7 76.2
Western Kentucky 0-5 0-9 72.0

 

Western Athletic Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 4-0 9-0 119.9
Nevada 5-0 6-3 103.9
Fresno State 5-1 6-3 102.4
Louisiana Tech 2-4 3-6 95.7
Utah State 1-4 2-7 91.2
Idaho 4-2 7-3 90.6
Hawaii 1-5 3-6 84.8
San Jose State 0-4 1-7 82.8
New Mexico State 1-3 3-6 71.8

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tuesday, November 10

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
BUFFALO Ohio U 4.3 28-24 -2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wednesday, November 11

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
CENTRAL MICHIGAN Toledo 23.0 40-17 19

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, November 5

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
Bowling Green MIAMI (O) 7.6 31-23 7
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Ball State 18.8 38-19 21
South Florida RUTGERS 0.1 24-24 ot 0

 

 

 

 

 

Friday, November 6

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
Temple AKRON 12.5 27-14 9
CINCINNATI West Virginia 14.3 35-21 14

 

 

 

 

 

Saturday, November 7

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
Boston College VIRGINIA 13.1 27-14 8
ILLINOIS Northwestern 1.5 21-19 2
LOUISVILLE Syracuse 2.9 20-17 5
OHIO STATE Iowa 7.3 21-14 7
WISCONSIN Michigan 10.8 41-30 14
PENN STATE Indiana 28.9 41-12 21
Michigan State PURDUE 3.9 31-27 2
Florida State WAKE FOREST 0.1 20-20 ot 0
Clemson NORTH CAROLINA ST. 7.9 31-23 12
Georgia Tech DUKE 14.4 38-24 13
Kentucky VANDERBILT 7.2 20-13 8
Texas BAYLOR 32.2 45-13 23
Virginia Tech MARYLAND 24.0 34-10 19
Western Michigan EASTERN MICHIGAN 8.8 26-17 10
OLE MISS Tennessee 3.2 27-24 2
B y u NEW MEXICO 35.0 42-7 28
Nebraska KANSAS 9.2 21-12 5
U  a  b MEMPHIS 3.9 31-27 4
IOWA STATE Colorado 1.8 26-24 7
U  c  l  a WASHINGTON ST. 24.7 38-13 14
BOISE STATE Idaho 32.3 45-13 25
S M U U t e p 2.9 35-34 11
PITTSBURGH Notre Dame 10.8 28-17 10
SOUTHERN CAL Stanford 8.4 28-20 8
CALIFORNIA Arizona 3.7 28-24 0
OREGON Arizona State 20.4 34-14 20
KANSAS STATE Missouri 0.6 24-23 2
OKLAHOMA Texas A&M 31.4 38-7 14
UTAH STATE San Jose St. 11.1 35-24 8
NEVADA Fresno State 4.5 35-30 -1
RICE Tulane 3.7 35-31 -1
AIR FORCE U n l v 14.9 31-16 16
OREGON STATE Washington 12.4 33-21 12
Florida SOUTH CAROLINA 23.2 35-13 17
Alabama MISSISSIPPI STATE 24.6 35-10 14
Southern Miss MARSHALL 2.0 26-24 -2
Miami-Fl NORTH CAROLINA 4.7 28-23 4
OKLAHOMA STATE Texas Tech 7.7 40-32 4
T C U Utah 20.3 30-10 16
GEORGIA Auburn 6.9 31-24 2
Houston CENTRAL FLORIDA 7.9 38-30 8
L S U Louisiana Tech 20.6 31-10 22
SAN DIEGO STATE Wyoming 4.3 24-20 4
HAWAII New Mexico State 17.0 45-28 13
FLORIDA ATLANTIC Arkansas St. 9.8 31-21 0
UL-MONROE Western Ky 21.3 38-17 24
ARKANSAS Troy 17.9 45-27 12
FLA. INT’L North Texas 9.6 34-24 7
MIDDLE TENNESSEE UL-Lafayette 11.0 35-24 12

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, November 15

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
TULSA East Carolina 0.1 27-27 ot 1

 

Bowl Projections

CAPS/Bold = Excepted Bid

Italics = at-large invitation

 

Bowl Conference

 

Conference Team Team
New Mexico MWC #4 vs. WAC #3 San Diego St. Nevada
St. Petersburg Big East #6 vs. C-USA #5 Middle Tennessee Southern Miss
New Orleans Sunbelt #1 vs. C-USA #4 Troy East Carolina
Las Vegas MWC #1 vs. Pac 10 #4 or 5 B Y U Stanford
Poinsettia MWC #2 vs. Pac 10 #6 Utah U C L A
Hawaii WAC vs. C-USA Fresno St. Marshall
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #7 vs. MAC #1 or 2 Minnesota Northern Illinois
Meineke Car Care ACC #5-6-7 vs. Big East #3 Boston Coll Rutgers
Emerald Pac 10 #4 or 5 vs. ACC #5-6-7 Oregon State Wake Forest
Music City SEC #6 or 7 vs. ACC #5-6-7 Georgia North Carolina
Independence SEC #8 vs. Big 12 #7 South Carolina Missouri
Eagle Bank ACC #8 vs. Army/C-USA Ohio U Central Florida 
Champs Sports ACC #4 vs. Big 10 #5 Va. Tech Northwestern
Humanitarian WAC #1 vs. MWC Idaho Bowling Green
Holiday Big 12 #3 vs. Pac 10 #2 Nebraska Arizona
Armed Forces C-USA #3 vs. MWC #3 S M U Air Force
Sun Pac 10 #3 vs. B E #2 or B12 #5 California Oklahoma
Texas Big 12 #8 vs. Navy or C-USA Texas A&M NAVY
Insight.com Big 12 #6 vs. Big 10 #6 Kansas State Michigan State
Chick-fil-A SEC #5 vs. ACC #2 Ole Miss Miami-Fl
Outback SEC #3 or 4 vs. Big 10 #3 Tennessee Penn State
Capital One Big 10 #2 vs. SEC #2 Iowa L S U
Gator B E #2 or B12 #5 vs. ACC #3 Cincinnati Ga. Tech
Rose BCS Pac10 vs. BCS Big 10 Oregon Ohio State
Sugar BCS SEC vs. BCS At-Large Alabama Boise State
International Big East #5 vs. MAC #3 West Va. Temple
Cotton Big 12 #2 vs. SEC #3 or 4 Oklahoma State Auburn
Papajohns.com Big East #4 vs. SEC #9 S. Florida Kentucky
Liberty SEC #6 or 7 vs. C-USA #1 Arkansas Houston
Alamo Big 10 #4 vs. Big 12 #4 Wisconsin Texas Tech
Fiesta BCS Big 12 vs. BCS At-Large Southern Cal T C U
Orange BCS ACC vs. BCS At-Large Clemson Pittsburgh
G M A C ACC #9 vs. MAC Notre Dame Central Michigan
National Championship *** BCS #1 *** vs. *** BCS #2 *** Florida Texas

 

November 2, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 3-7, 2009

Several Big Games To Highlight Weekend

PiRate Ratings Go 9-2 Against Spread

 

Several key games dot the college football schedule this week, and because so many could go either way, we think it’s time to start paring the number of college games we select.  After a 9-2 against the spread, the PiRates are counting their booty.  Our two week record against the spread is 17-3-1, and our percentage for the season is now 63.5% (54-31-2).  We will be playing with Vegas’s money the rest of the year, so we will guarantee ourselves a winning season and play fewer games from here on out, unless we see too many easy ones to pass up.

 

That 9-2 record was really nice, but when we see just how close we came to going 11-0, it is almost a tad disappointing.  We had Indiana +17, and for so long that game looked good until Iowa scored four quick touchdowns.  The other loss was on a 10-point teaser, and two of the three games had already won when a late Brett Favre touchdown pass moved the total score from 57 to 64 points (The 10-point teaser line was 57 ½).  We won with Minnesota +3 vs. Green Bay, Georgia Tech -11 vs. Vanderbilt, Illinois +7 vs. Michigan, Louisville -165 money line vs. Arkansas St., Houston -3 vs. Buffalo, Baltimore -3 ½ vs. Denver, North Carolina +16 ½ vs. Va. Tech, and three teasers.

 

NCAA Top 25 For October 26, 2009
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Texas 136.3 8 0
2 Florida  133.4 8 0
3 Oklahoma 129.8 5 3
4 Alabama 128.9 7 0
5 Oregon 121.9 7 1
6 T C U 121.8 8 0
7 Southern Cal 120.9 6 2
8 Boise St. 119.7 8 0
9 Georgia Tech 119.2 8 1
10 Penn St. 118.9 8 1
11 Iowa 117.9 9 0
12 Va. Tech 117.9 5 3
13 Ohio St. 116.4 7 2
14 Okla. St. 116.0 6 2
15 California 115.8 6 2
16 Cincinnati 115.3 8 0
17 Pittsburgh 115.3 7 1
18 Nebraska 115.1 5 3
19 Ole Miss 114.1 5 3
20 L  S  U 113.9 7 1
21 Miami (Fla.) 113.7 6 2
22 Tennessee 113.6 4 4
23 Arkansas 112.8 4 4
24 Clemson 112.7 5 3
25 Stanford 112.3 5 3

 

 

     
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
Even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Clemson 3-2 5-3 112.7
Boston College 3-2 6-3 110.8
Florida State 2-3 4-4 109.7
Wake Forest 2-3 4-5 104.8
North Carolina State 0-4 3-5 103.2
Maryland 1-3 2-6 91.4

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Georgia Tech 5-1 8-1 119.2
Virginia Tech 3-2 5-3 117.9
Miami-FL 3-2 6-2 113.7
North Carolina 1-3 5-3 108.3
Duke 3-1 5-3 102.5
Virginia 2-2 3-5 98.2

 

Big East Conference
 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Cincinnati 4-0 8-0 115.3
Pittsburgh 4-0 7-1 115.3
South Florida 2-2 6-2 105.3
West Virginia 2-1 6-2 104.1
Connecticut 1-3 4-4 103.6
Rutgers 1-2 6-2 101.8
Syracuse 0-3 3-5 92.4
Louisville 0-3 3-5 92.4

 

Big Ten

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Penn State 4-1 8-1 118.9
Iowa 5-0 9-0 117.9
Ohio State 4-1 7-2 116.4
Wisconsin 3-2 6-2 105.0
Michigan State 3-3 4-5 102.6
Minnesota 3-3 5-4 100.1
Michigan 1-4 5-4 98.3
Purdue 2-3 3-6 95.6
Northwestern 2-3 5-4 94.9
Illinois 1-5 2-6 94.0
Indiana 1-4 4-5 91.5

 

Big 12
North Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 2-2 5-3 115.1
Kansas 1-3 5-3 105.9
Missouri 1-3 5-3 104.9
Kansas State 3-2 5-4 98.9
Iowa State 2-3 5-4 95.5
Colorado 1-3 2-6 95.0

 

 

 

 

South Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Texas 5-0 8-0 136.3
Oklahoma 3-1 5-3 129.8
Oklahoma State 3-1 6-2 116.0
Texas Tech 3-2 6-3 112.3
Texas A&M 2-2 5-3 99.8
Baylor 0-4 3-5 99.0

 

Conference USA
East Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Southern Mississippi 3-2 5-4 100.7
East Carolina 4-1 5-3 99.9
Marshall 3-2 5-4 95.7
Central Florida 3-2 5-3 95.5
U A B 3-2 3-5 88.9
Memphis 1-4 2-6 84.0

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 3-1 7-1 106.0
Tulsa 2-2 4-4 97.1
U T E P 2-2 3-5 91.8
S M U 3-1 4-4 90.3
Rice 0-4 0-8 76.4
Tulane 0-4 2-6 73.8
Independents

 

 

 

 

Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame

 

6-2 109.4
Navy

 

6-3 100.6
Army

 

3-5 82.7
             

 

Mid American Conference
East Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 4-0 6-2 100.2
Buffalo 1-3 3-5 92.4
Ohio U 4-1 6-3 90.1
Kent St. 4-1 5-4 88.9
Bowling Green 2-2 3-5 88.6
Akron 0-4 1-7 82.5
Miami (O) 1-4 1-8 77.4

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Michigan 5-0 7-2 106.7
Northern Illinois 3-1 5-3 94.4
Western Michigan 3-3 4-5 88.4
Toledo 2-3 4-5 86.7
Ball State 1-4 1-8 81.3
Eastern Michigan 0-4 0-8 79.2

 

Mountain West Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 4-0 8-0 121.8
B Y U 3-1 6-2 109.8
Utah 4-0 7-1 106.3
Air Force 4-2 5-4 99.5
S. D. State 2-2 4-4 89.8
Colo. State 0-5 3-6 89.8
Wyoming 2-2 4-4 89.1
UNLV 1-4 3-6 86.8
New Mexico 0-4 0-8 74.7

 

Pac-10 Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 5-0 7-1 121.9
Southern Cal 3-2 6-2 120.9
California 3-2 6-2 115.8
Stanford 4-2 5-3 112.3
Arizona 3-1 5-2 111.4
Oregon St. 3-2 5-3 105.4
U C L A 0-5 3-5 103.5
Arizona St. 2-3 4-4 102.8
Washington 2-3 3-5 98.7
Wash. St. 0-5 1-7 76.3

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida 6-0 8-0 133.4
Tennessee 2-3 4-4 113.6
Georgia 3-3 4-4 109.2
South Carolina 3-3 6-3 107.6
Kentucky 1-4 4-4 102.9
Vanderbilt 0-5 2-7 92.7

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 5-0 8-0 128.9
Ole Miss 2-3 5-3 114.1
L S U 4-1 7-1 113.9
Arkansas 1-4 4-4 112.8
Auburn 3-3 6-3 105.3
Mississippi State 2-3 4-5 101.6

 

Sunbelt Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 5-0 6-2 99.1
Arkansas State 1-2 2-5 92.3
Middle Tennessee 3-1 5-3 89.7
Louisiana-Monroe 3-0 3-4 88.1
Florida International 2-3 2-6 84.9
Florida Atlantic 2-2 2-5 84.7
Louisiana 2-2 4-4 81.2
North Texas 1-4 2-6 78.7
Western Kentucky 0-4 0-8 71.7

 

Western Athletic Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 3-0 8-0 119.7
Fresno State 4-1 5-3 102.4
Nevada 4-0 5-3 100.4
Louisiana Tech 2-3 3-5 95.9
Utah State 1-3 2-6 93.7
Idaho 4-1 7-2 90.6
San Jose State 0-3 1-6 86.3
Hawaii 0-5 2-6 82.0
New Mexico State 1-3 3-6 71.8

 

Reminder: Don’t use these ratings against the spread when you pick games.  We rely on several other factors when we pick games against the spread.

For our weekly picks, go to www.piratings.webs.com and select “Picks vs. Vegas Line.”  We’re a great bargain at just $5 per week.

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tuesday, November 3

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
BUFFALO Bowling Green 6.5 28-21 0

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, November 5

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Eastern Michigan 18.2 35-17 23
TEMPLE Miami-OH 25.5 33-7 19
Virginia Tech EAST CAROLINA 15.0 27-12 10

 

 

 

 

 

Friday, November 6

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
Boise State LOUISIANA TECH 20.5 34-13 22

 

 

 

 

 

Saturday, November 7

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
MICHIGAN STATE Western Michigan 16.7 34-17 14
CINCINNATI Connecticut 14.7 24-9 18
PITTSBURGH Syracuse 25.9 35-9 24
IOWA Northwestern 26.2 36-10 23
MINNESOTA Illinois 9.3 35-26 11
WEST VIRGINIA Louisville 14.7 35-20 15
N. C. STATE Maryland 14.8 35-20 7
GEORGIA TECH Wake Forest 17.4 41-24 17
NORTH CAROLINA Duke 7.8 31-23 7
Wisconsin INDIANA 10.5 34-23 11
ARKANSAS South Carolina 8.2 35-27 6
Oklahoma State IOWA STATE 17.8 35-17 6
MISSOURI Baylor 8.9 21-12 11
FLORIDA Vanderbilt 44.0 47-3 37
Brigham Young WYOMING 17.7 31-13 11
NOTRE DAME Navy 12.3 38-26 9
S M U Rice 16.6 34-17 24
U t e p TULANE 15.3 42-27 6
ALABAMA L s u 18.2 28-10 9
TEXAS Central Florida 44.8 52-7 32
Kent State AKRON 3.9 24-20 6
AIR FORCE Army 19.8 30-10 21
Kansas KANSAS STATE 5.0 27-22 1
Oklahoma NEBRASKA 11.7 24-12 2
PENN STATE Ohio State 5.5 16-10 5
T c u SAN DIEGO STATE 29.0 42-13 25
Fresno State IDAHO 8.8 30-21 6
UTAH New Mexico 34.6 42-7 33
ARIZONA Washington State 38.3 55-17 27
CALIFORNIA Oregon State 13.4 27-14 6
U C L A Washington 7.8 35-27 4
Oregon STANFORD 6.9 31-24 10
Texas A&M COLORADO 1.8 28-26 7
MIAMI-FL Virginia 18.7 33-14 14
TENNESSEE Memphis 32.6 47-14 28
CLEMSON Florida State 6.0 34-28 10
Houston TULSA 5.9 37-31 8
Southern Cal ARIZONA STATE 15.1 38-23 11
MICHIGAN Purdue 5.7 30-24 6
Colorado State U N L V 0.3 24-24 ot 0
Utah State HAWAII 8.7 30-21 1
U A B Florida Atlantic 6.7 30-23 5
UL-Monroe NORTH TEXAS 6.7 34-27 5
Troy WESTERN KENTUCKY 24.9 45-20 26
ARKANSAS STATE UL-Lafayette 13.8 34-20 10
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Florida Int’l 7.8 24-16 12

 

October 26, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–October 27-31, 2009

A New Number One In The PiRate Ratings

PiRate Picks Go 8-2-1 against the Spread

 

For the first time this season, the Florida Gators don’t occupy the top spot in the PiRate Ratings.  However, unlike some polls and other ratings, it’s not Alabama that has displaced Tebow Incorporated.  Texas surpassed Florida following an impressive blowout win at Missouri.  If the Longhorns can win at Oklahoma State, it looks highly favorable for Coach Mack Brown to direct the Longhorns to their second National Championship Game appearance in five years.

 

We receive e-mails from readers (pirate_ratings@live.com), asking how a team like Oklahoma can be rated so high with three losses.  We must remind you that the PiRate Ratings Top 25 is not a poll like those voted on by journalists or coaches.  These ratings do not rank teams based on what they have done so far this season.  They are meant to estimate the point spread differential between teams before applying home field advantage and about a dozen other variables.

 

Additionally, we must reiterate that you should not use the raw PiRate Ratings when picking games against the spread.  We only use it as a beginning point.  For example, let’s take a look at a sample game from last week—Rutgers at Army.  Rutgers entered the week with a Pirate Rating of 100.8 compared to Army at 82.9.  That’s a spread of 17.9.  Army’s home field advantage for the weeknight nationally televised game was just two points.  So, now we have Rutgers favored by 15.9.  Next, we looked at several variables to see how they affected this particular game.  One major variable was Rutgers’ run defense being superior to the average run defense, while Army relies almost exclusively on the run.  That tilted our in-house spread by three points in Rutgers’ favor, making it now 18.9.  RU had an extra day to prepare, and we moved the in-house spread by 1.5 points, making it 20.4.  The Las Vegas line for the game was Rutgers by 10, and our spread differed by 10.4.  Thus Rutgers -10 became our top college selection for the week.

 

If you want this week’s selections by Thursday afternoon, go to www.piratings.webs.com and click on “Picks vs. Vegas Line.”  We offer a bargain at just $5 per week.  We had dozens of happy customers last week when our picks finished 8-2-1.  For the season, our record against the spread is now 45-29-2 for 60.8%.

 

NCAA Top 25 For October 26, 2009

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Texas

135.8

7

0

2

Florida 

133.2

7

0

3

Oklahoma

129.8

4

3

4

Alabama

130.2

7

0

5

Southern Cal

124.1

6

1

6

T C U

121.2

7

0

7

Va. Tech

120.5

5

2

8

Boise St.

116.6

7

0

9

Penn St.

116.6

7

1

10

Oregon

116.5

6

1

11

Georgia Tech

116.4

7

1

12

Iowa

117.3

8

0

13

Ole Miss

116.7

5

2

14

Okla. St.

116.5

6

1

15

Ohio St.

116.4

6

2

16

California

115.7

5

2

17

Pittsburgh

115.3

7

1

18

Nebraska

114.9

4

3

19

Cincinnati

114.5

7

0

20

L  S  U

113.7

6

1

21

Miami (Fla.)

113.6

5

2

22

Arkansas

112.5

3

4

23

Clemson

112.4

4

3

24

Stanford

112.3

5

3

25

Arizona

111.4

5

2

   

 

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Clemson

3-2

4-3

112.4

Florida State

1-3

3-4

110.4

Boston College

3-2

5-3

109.0

Wake Forest

2-2

4-4

104.9

North Carolina State

0-3

3-4

102.5

Maryland

1-3

2-6

91.4

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

3-1

5-2

120.5

Georgia Tech

5-1

7-1

118.4

Miami-FL

2-2

5-2

113.6

North Carolina

0-3

4-3

105.7

Duke

2-1

4-3

100.9

Virginia

2-1

3-4

100.0

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Pittsburgh

4-0

7-1

115.3

Cincinnati

3-0

7-0

114.5

West Virginia

2-0

6-1

105.1

Connecticut

1-2

4-3

104.4

South Florida

1-2

5-2

104.3

Rutgers

0-2

5-2

101.0

Syracuse

0-2

3-4

92.9

Louisville

0-3

2-5

91.7

 

Big Ten

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Penn State

3-1

7-1

118.6

Iowa

4-0

8-0

117.3

Ohio State

4-1

6-2

116.4

Michigan State

3-2

4-4

103.9

Wisconsin

2-2

5-2

102.0

Michigan

1-3

5-3

101.8

Minnesota

2-3

4-4

98.8

Purdue

2-2

3-5

98.6

Northwestern

2-2

5-3

95.2

Indiana

1-3

4-4

91.8

Illinois

0-5

1-6

91.0

 

Big 12

North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nebraska

1-2

4-3

114.9

Kansas

1-2

5-2

107.7

Missouri

0-3

4-3

103.2

Kansas State

3-1

5-3

98.9

Iowa State

2-2

5-3

97.3

Colorado

1-2

2-5

96.7

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Texas

4-0

7-0

135.8

Oklahoma

2-1

4-3

129.8

Oklahoma State

3-0

6-1

116.5

Texas Tech

2-2

5-3

111.0

Baylor

0-3

3-4

99.4

Texas A&M

1-2

4-3

97.7

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

3-1

5-3

100.8

East Carolina

3-1

4-3

98.6

Marshall

3-1

5-3

95.9

Central Florida

2-2

4-3

95.3

U A B

2-2

2-5

87.6

Memphis

1-3

2-5

85.5

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

2-1

6-1

105.9

Tulsa

2-1

4-3

100.3

U T E P

2-1

3-4

93.1

S M U

2-1

3-4

87.8

Rice

0-4

0-8

76.4

Tulane

0-4

2-5

74.0

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

5-2

109.2

Navy  

6-2

102.0

Army  

3-5

82.7

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

4-0

5-2

98.5

Buffalo

1-3

3-5

92.4

Ohio U

3-1

5-3

89.9

Bowling Green

2-2

3-5

88.6

Kent St.

3-1

4-4

87.8

Akron

0-3

1-6

83.6

Miami (O)

0-4

0-8

75.5

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Central Michigan

5-0

7-1

108.2

Northern Illinois

2-1

4-3

93.3

Western Michigan

3-2

4-4

89.5

Toledo

2-2

4-4

88.9

Ball State

1-3

1-7

81.5

Eastern Michigan

0-4

0-7

79.5

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

T C U

3-0

7-0

121.2

B Y U

3-1

6-2

109.8

Utah

3-0

6-1

106.8

Air Force

3-2

4-4

98.6

Colo. State

0-4

3-5

90.7

S. D. State

1-2

3-4

90.3

Wyoming

2-1

4-3

88.6

UNLV

1-3

3-5

87.4

New Mexico

0-3

0-7

74.4

 

Pac-10 Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Cal

3-1

6-1

124.1

Oregon

4-0

6-1

118.5

California

2-2

5-2

115.7

Stanford

4-2

5-3

112.3

Arizona

3-1

5-2

111.4

Oregon St.

2-2

4-3

104.8

U C L A

0-4

3-4

104.1

Arizona St.

2-2

4-3

102.9

Washington

2-3

3-5

98.7

Wash. St.

0-5

1-6

76.5

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida

5-0

7-0

133.2

Tennessee

1-3

3-4

111.9

Georgia

3-2

4-3

109.4

South Carolina

3-2

6-2

108.8

Kentucky

1-3

4-3

105.1

Vanderbilt

0-5

2-6

93.5

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

5-0

8-0

128.9

Ole Miss

2-2

5-2

116.7

L S U

4-1

6-1

113.7

Arkansas

1-4

3-4

112.5

Auburn

2-3

5-3

102.7

Mississippi State

1-3

3-5

99.4

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Troy

4-0

5-2

98.6

Arkansas State

1-2

2-4

93.0

Middle Tennessee

2-1

4-3

89.4

Louisiana-Monroe

3-0

3-4

88.1

Florida International

1-3

1-6

85.1

Florida Atlantic

2-1

2-4

85.0

Louisiana

2-1

4-3

81.0

North Texas

0-4

1-6

77.7

Western Kentucky

0-3

0-7

72.7

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

2-0

7-0

118.6

Fresno State

3-1

4-3

102.7

Nevada

3-0

4-3

100.3

Louisiana Tech

2-2

3-4

96.2

Utah State

1-2

2-5

93.4

Idaho

3-1

6-2

90.3

San Jose State

0-2

1-5

87.1

Hawaii

0-4

2-5

82.1

New Mexico State

1-3

3-5

71.8

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Tuesday, October 27  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

East Carolina MEMPHIS

10.4

30-20

7

   

 

 

 

Wednesday, October 28  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

None  

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Thursday, October 29  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

VIRGINIA TECH North Carolina

18.0

28-10

18

   

 

 

 

Friday, October 30  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

SOUTH FLORIDA West Virginia

2.4

28-26

0

   

 

 

 

Saturday, October 31  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

CONNECTICUT Rutgers

6.4

27-21

5

Cincinnati SYRACUSE

18.9

31-12

21

BOSTON COLLEGE Central Michigan

4.3

28-24

2

Ohio U BALL STATE

5.9

20-14

10

VIRGINIA Duke

2.1

19-17

5

IOWA Indiana

28.7

35-6

24

WISCONSIN Purdue

6.4

30-24

10

Miami (Fl) WAKE FOREST

6.0

27-21

7

FLORIDA STATE North Carolina St.

11.1

35-24

12

NORTHERN ILLINOIS Akron

12.7

27-14

17

OHIO STATE New Mexico St.

48.6

49-0

36

Georgia Tech VANDERBILT

22.2

31-9

20

TEXAS A&M Iowa State

3.7

31-27

1

Ole Miss AUBURN

10.8

31-20

1

ARKANSAS Eastern Michigan

37.0

47-10

35

KENT STATE Western Michigan

1.0

24-23

1

Nebraska BAYLOR

13.0

23-10

9

TULSA S  m  u

15.5

40-24

9

U  T  E  P U  a  b

8.5

30-21

8

BOISE STATE San Jose State

34.7

45-10

33

Florida      (N) Georgia

23.8

34-10

20

Toledo MIAMI (O)

10.9

35-24

5

OREGON STATE U  c  l  a

3.9

27-23

9

NAVY Temple

6.5

24-17

10

California ARIZONA STATE

9.8

34-24

5

Michigan ILLINOIS

8.1

31-23

10

Missouri COLORADO

3.5

28-24

3

OKLAHOMA Kansas State

34.1

41-7

19

Texas OKLAHOMA STATE

16.1

40-24

9

NEVADA Hawaii

21.7

45-23

15

T  C  U U  n  l  v

37.0

40-3

33

Air Force COLORADO STATE

5.2

21-16

4

Penn State NORTHWESTERN

20.4

30-10

16

Louisiana Tech IDAHO

2.9

31-28

6

FRESNO STATE Utah State

12.5

27-14

18

KENTUCKY Mississippi State

8.7

30-21

8

TEXAS TECH Kansas

6.3

34-28

6

SAN DIEGO STATE New Mexico

18.6

35-16

19

NOTRE DAME Washington State

36.7

51-14

25

TENNESSEE South Carolina

6.3

20-14

5

Southern Cal OREGON

2.4

30-28

-4

HOUSTON Southern Miss

8.1

35-27

11

UTAH Wyoming

21.2

35-14

19

L  S  U Tulane

42.2

49-7

36

Michigan State MINNESOTA

2.1

24-22

1

LOUISVILLE Arkansas State

1.7

26-24

3

FLORIDA INT’L U L-Lafayette

6.6

24-17

2

NORTH TEXAS Western Kentucky

7.5

34-26

12

Middle Tennessee FLORIDA ATLANTIC

1.7

30-28

0

TROY U L-Monroe

13.5

41-27

9

October 19, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–October 21-24, 2009

Time To Start Bowl Projecting

 

With the initial BCS ranking coming out this week, it’s time for the PiRates to start projecting the bowls.  Of course, the only one that really matters is the National Championship Game.  It looks rather easy as of right now.  Most of our competitors are picking Texas to play the winner of the Florida-Alabama SEC Championship Game.  We don’t concur for one reason—we think Texas will lose one of its remaining Big 12 games.  The Longhorns have squeaked by Texas Tech and Oklahoma.  We think either Missouri, Oklahoma State, or even Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship Game could knock the Longhorns off their perch.

 

That presents a major problem for the BCS.  Boise State is sitting at number four, and the Broncos have only Idaho and Nevada left on their schedule to worry about.  BSU should run the table and could move up to number two in the Harris and USA Today polls by the end of the season.  Could a Florida or Alabama game against Boise State be possible?  We think the numbers will be fudged just enough to allow a possible rematch of the SEC championship Game for the National Championship Game.

 

Another strong possibility could leave an undefeated team in the Top 10 out of the BCS Bowl picture.  TCU could easily run the table and finish 12-0 and around number six in the final regular season poll.  The at-large rules wouldn’t guarantee the Horned Frogs an automatic at-large bid if Boise State finished undefeated and ahead of them in the BCS standings.  It would come down to one of the big bowls, like the Sugar Bowl to choose between them and a possible 10-2 Southern Cal or 11-1 Cincinnati team.

 

As of today, we are projecting Pittsburgh to edge Cincinnati for the Big East title and Oregon to beat USC in the Pac-10.  That could change, but if both the Bearcats and Trojans lose those games, they could still be selected as at-large teams over an undefeated TCU team. 

 

The PiRate Ratings have seen the top teams coming back to the pack.  Florida and Texas no longer have the big gap between them and the rest of the Top 10.  Both the Gators and Longhorns were very fortunate to come out of Saturday undefeated.

 

NCAA Top 25 For October 12, 2009

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Florida 

137.4

6

0

2

Texas

133.1

6

0

3

Alabama

130.2

7

0

4

Oklahoma

129.0

3

3

5

Southern Cal

124.4

5

1

6

Va. Tech

120.5

5

2

7

T C U

117.9

6

0

8

Iowa

117.2

7

0

9

Nebraska

116.4

4

2

10

Boise St.

116.3

6

0

11

Ole Miss

116.3

4

2

12

Penn St.

116.1

6

1

13

Georgia Tech

116.1

6

1

14

Texas Tech

115.5

5

2

15

California

115.2

4

2

16

Oregon

115.1

5

1

17

Miami (Fla.)

115.0

5

1

18

Ohio St.

114.8

5

2

19

Okla. St.

114.3

5

1

20

Cincinnati

113.3

6

0

21

B  Y  U

113.1

6

1

22

Arkansas

112.9

3

3

23

Pittsburgh

112.4

6

1

24

L  S  U

112.4

5

1

25

Stanford

111.2

4

3

   

 

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Clemson

2-2

3-3

111.0

Florida State

0-3

2-4

110.0

Boston College

3-2

5-2

109.2

Wake Forest

2-2

4-3

105.5

North Carolina State

0-3

3-4

102.5

Maryland

1-2

2-5

91.5

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

3-1

5-2

120.5

Georgia Tech

4-1

6-1

116.1

Miami-FL

2-1

5-1

115.0

North Carolina

0-3

4-2

106.1

Virginia

2-0

3-3

102.3

Duke

1-1

3-3

100.8

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Cincinnati

2-0

6-0

113.3

Pittsburgh

3-0

6-1

112.4

South Florida

1-1

5-1

107.2

Connecticut

1-1

4-2

105.0

West Virginia

1-0

5-1

104.5

Rutgers

0-2

4-2

100.8

Louisville

0-2

2-4

92.9

Syracuse

0-2

2-4

92.6

 

Big Ten

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Iowa

3-0

7-0

117.2

Penn State

2-1

6-1

116.1

Ohio State

3-1

5-2

114.8

Michigan

1-2

5-2

104.3

Michigan State

3-1

4-3

104.0

Wisconsin

2-2

5-2

102.0

Minnesota

2-2

4-3

100.4

Purdue

1-2

2-5

98.4

Northwestern

1-2

4-3

94.9

Indiana

1-2

4-3

92.1

Illinois

0-4

1-5

91.2

 

Big 12

North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nebraska

1-1

4-2

116.4

Kansas

1-1

5-1

108.5

Missouri

0-2

4-2

105.9

Colorado

1-1

2-4

98.0

Kansas State

2-1

4-3

97.6

Iowa State

1-2

4-3

95.8

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Texas

3-0

6-0

133.1

Oklahoma

1-1

3-3

129.0

Texas Tech

2-1

5-2

115.5

Oklahoma State

2-0

5-1

114.3

Baylor

0-2

3-3

101.6

Texas A&M

0-2

3-3

93.2

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

2-1

4-3

100.0

East Carolina

3-1

4-3

98.6

Marshall

2-1

4-3

94.7

Central Florida

1-2

3-3

93.3

U A B

2-1

2-4

88.8

Memphis

1-3

2-5

85.5

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

1-1

5-1

105.6

Tulsa

2-0

4-2

101.5

U T E P

1-1

2-4

90.9

S M U

2-0

3-3

88.1

Rice

0-3

0-7

78.4

Tulane

0-3

2-4

74.8

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

4-2

109.0

Navy  

5-2

101.4

Army  

3-4

82.9

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

3-0

4-2

97.2

Buffalo

1-2

3-4

92.7

Ohio U

3-0

5-2

92.6

Bowling Green

2-1

3-4

88.7

Kent St.

2-1

3-4

85.1

Akron

0-3

1-5

83.9

Miami (O)

0-3

0-7

75.7

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Central Michigan

4-0

6-1

108.1

Northern Illinois

1-1

3-3

93.1

Toledo

2-1

4-3

90.2

Western Michigan

2-2

3-4

89.2

Ball State

0-3

0-7

80.7

Eastern Michigan

0-3

0-6

80.3

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

T C U

2-0

6-0

117.9

B Y U

3-0

6-1

113.1

Utah

2-0

5-1

106.5

Air Force

3-1

4-3

98.9

Colo. State

0-3

3-4

92.8

Wyoming

2-1

4-3

88.6

S. D. State

0-2

2-4

88.2

UNLV

0-3

2-5

85.4

New Mexico

0-2

0-6

76.4

 

Pac-10 Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Cal

2-1

5-1

124.4

California

1-2

4-2

115.2

Oregon

3-0

5-1

115.1

Stanford

3-2

4-3

111.2

Arizona

2-1

4-2

110.7

U C L A

0-3

3-3

104.8

Oregon St.

2-1

4-2

104.5

Arizona St.

2-1

4-2

104.0

Washington

2-2

3-4

102.1

Wash. St.

0-4

1-5

77.0

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida

4-0

6-0

134.9

Tennessee

1-2

3-3

110.6

Georgia

3-2

4-3

109.4

South Carolina

2-2

5-2

108.7

Kentucky

1-3

3-3

104.7

Vanderbilt

0-4

2-5

93.6

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

4-0

7-0

130.2

Ole Miss

1-2

4-2

116.3

Arkansas

1-3

3-3

112.9

L S U

3-1

5-1

112.4

Auburn

2-2

5-2

104.0

Mississippi State

1-2

3-4

97.7

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Troy

3-0

4-2

98.4

Arkansas State

0-2

1-4

91.5

Louisiana-Monroe

3-0

3-3

88.5

Middle Tennessee

1-1

3-3

87.9

Florida International

1-2

1-5

86.6

Louisiana

2-0

4-2

83.4

Florida Atlantic

1-1

1-4

82.6

North Texas

0-3

1-5

77.9

Western Kentucky

0-2

0-6

74.2

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

1-0

6-0

116.3

Fresno State

2-1

3-3

101.8

Nevada

2-0

3-3

99.0

Louisiana Tech

2-1

3-3

96.4

Utah State

0-2

1-5

93.2

Idaho

3-0

6-1

91.6

San Jose State

0-2

1-5

87.1

Hawaii

0-3

2-4

84.4

New Mexico State

1-2

3-4

72.7

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Tuesday, October 20  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

None  

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Wednesday, October 21  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

Tulsa U T E P

8.1

35-27

10

   

 

 

 

Thursday, October 22  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

Florida State NORTH CAROLINA

0.7

21-20

1

   

 

 

 

Friday, October 23  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

Rutgers ARMY

15.9

30-14

11

   

 

 

 

Saturday, October 24  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

MARSHALL U  a  b

9.2

30-21

10

SYRACUSE Akron

12.2

33-21

10

DUKE Maryland

12.3

34-21

10

Georgia Tech VIRGINIA

10.8

31-20

6

MIAMI (FL) Clemson

7.0

24-17

8

PURDUE Illinois

10.2

34-24

12

Central Michigan BOWLING GREEN

16.9

34-17

7

NORTHWESTERN Indiana

5.8

27-21

3

OHIO STATE Minnesota

17.9

28-10

14

PITTSBURGH South Florida

8.5

28-19

6

WEST VIRGINIA Connecticut

2.7

20-17

6

SOUTH CAROLINA Vanderbilt

18.6

26-7

21

NEBRASKA Iowa State

24.6

28-3

16

EASTERN MICHIGAN Ball State

2.1

22-20

-1

Northern Illinois MIAMI (O)

15.1

28-13

15

Oklahoma State BAYLOR

9.7

34-24

7

OHIO U Kent State

10.2

30-20

13

Buffalo WESTERN MICHIGAN

1.0

24-23

-5

Louisiana Tech UTAH STATE

0.0

27-27 ot

3

NOTRE DAME Boston College

3.3

34-31

6

ALABAMA Tennessee

22.9

33-10

19

Oregon WASHINGTON

9.8

34-24

11

TEXAS TECH Texas A&M

25.3

42-17

21

Penn State MICHIGAN

8.3

21-13

3

Oklahoma KANSAS

17.5

35-17

5

Texas MISSOURI

24.2

34-10

14

Wake Forest NAVY

1.4

28-27

-6

COLORADO STATE San Diego State

7.6

34-26

11

UTAH Air Force

10.6

24-13

12

NEVADA Idaho

10.4

38-28

0

ARIZONA U  c  l  a

8.9

30-21

11

CALIFORNIA Washington State

41.2

48-7

27

Temple TOLEDO

4.3

24-20

-1

OLE MISS Arkansas

6.4

27-21

3

CINCINNATI Louisville

23.1

33-10

26

SOUTHERN MISS Tulane

27.9

38-10

18

Central Florida RICE

12.2

24-12

11

KANSAS STATE Colorado

2.6

31-28

3

Iowa MICHIGAN STATE

10.0

24-14

8

T  c  u B  Y  U

1.6

26-24

4

Florida MISSISSIPPI STATE

34.2

37-3

24

HOUSTON S  m  u

20.5

52-31

16

Fresno State NEW MEXICO STATE

26.4

33-7

21

L  S  U Auburn

11.7

28-16

10

U  n  l  v NEW MEXICO

6.5

24-17

6

SOUTHERN CAL Oregon State

23.4

40-17

13

STANFORD Arizona State

10.2

31-21

4

Boise State HAWAII

28.4

42-14

26

UL-LAFAYETTE Florida Atlantic

3.5

31-27

6

ARKANSAS STATE Florida International

7.6

35-27

9

TROY North Texas

23.5

34-10

20

KENTUCKY Louisiana-Monroe

19.4

40-21

12

MIDDLE TENNESSEE Western Kentucky

16.4

28-12

18

 

Bowl Projections

 

Bowl

Conference

Team

Conference

Team

New Mexico

MWC #4

Colorado St.

WAC #3

Fresno St.

St. Petersburg

Big East #6

Rutgers

C-USA #5

Marshall

New Orleans

Sunbelt #1

Troy

C-USA #4

East Carolina

Las Vegas

MWC #1

T C U

Pac 10 #4 or 5

Arizona St.

Poinsettia

MWC #2

Air Force

Pac 10 #6

U C L A

Hawaii

WAC

Nevada

C-USA

S M U

Little Caesar’s Pizza

Big 10 #7

Minnesota

MAC #1 or 2

Ohio U

Meineke Car Care

ACC #5-6-7

Wake Forest

Big East #3

West Va.

Emerald

Pac 10 #4 or 5

Oregon St.

ACC #5-6-7

Virginia

Music City

SEC #6 or 7

Auburn

ACC #5-6-7

North Carolina

Independence

SEC #8

Arkansas

Big 12 #7

Kansas

Eagle Bank

ACC #8

Boston College

Army/At-large

[Northwestern]

Champs Sports

ACC #4

Clemson

Big 10 #5

Wisconsin

Humanitarian

WAC #1

Idaho

MWC

Utah

Holiday

Big 12 #3

Nebraska

Pac 10 #2

California

Armed Forces

C-USA #3

Tulsa

MWC #3

B Y U

Sun

Pac 10 #3

Arizona

Big 12 #5 or Big East #2

Oklahoma

Texas

Big 12 #8

Kansas St.

Navy or C-USA

Navy

Insight.com

Big 12 #6

Missouri

Big 10 #6

Michigan St.

Chick-fil-A

SEC #5

Georgia

ACC #2

Va. Tech

Outback

SEC #3 or 4

Ole Miss

Big 10 #3

Ohio St.

Capital One

Big 10 #2

Penn St.

SEC #2

L S U

Gator

Big East #2 or Big 12 #5

Notre Dame

ACC #3

Ga. Tech

Rose

BCS Pac10

Oregon

BCS Big 10

Iowa

Sugar

BCS SEC

Southern Cal

BCS At-Large

Cincinnati

International

Big East #5

Connecticut

MAC #3

Temple

Cotton

Big 12 #2

Oklahoma St.

SEC #3 or 4

South Carolina

Papajohns.com

Big East #4

S. Florida

SEC #9

Kentucky

Liberty

SEC #6 or 7

Tennessee

C-USA #1

Houston

Alamo

Big 10 #4

Michigan

Big 12 #4

Texas Tech

Fiesta

BCS Big 12

Texas

BCS At-Large

Boise St.

Orange

BCS ACC

Miami (Fl)

BCS At-Large

Pittsburgh

G M A C

ACC #9

[Southern Miss]

MAC

Central Mich.

National Championship

*** BCS #1 ***

Alabama

*** BCS #2 ***

Florida

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