PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 14
Will It Be Another Topsy-Turvy Weekend?
Who woulda thunk it? The Broncos clobbered the Jets at the Meadowlands. San Francisco won at Buffalo. Cleveland almost beat Indianapolis. The Steelers blew New England out in Foxboro. I don’t even want to list how poorly my record was in the selections. Suffice it to say, it was brutal.
Starting this week, I am changing the coverage a little bit. I have placed the current teams in the Pro Football Computer Simulator and simulated each game 100 times. I figure the simulator may have better luck at picking the winners than me. What you will see in each game preview is the number of games out of the 100 simulations each team won, the average score, the extreme scores in both directions, and the extreme total points scored in both directions. The weather has also been simulated. If the forecast calls for a 30% chance of showers, then 30 of the simulations had wet field conditions.
The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)
The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version. The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula. No subjective data is used.
The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule. As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October.
The Mean Ratings (Mean)
Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version. The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations. Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule. Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing. Point values are assigned based on each set of data. The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s. The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.
The Bias Ratings (Biased)
The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings. The five ratings are not given equal weight. The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%. I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.
All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average. If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100. The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league. A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average.
I do not attempt to rate teams from different years. A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972. We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.
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Current NFL Standings
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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| NFC East |
Won
|
|
Lost
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|
Tied
|
Pts
|
Opp
|
Rating
|
Mean
|
Biased
|
HTA
|
| New York |
11
|
–
|
1
|
–
|
0
|
352
|
206
|
110.99
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110.26
|
108.82
|
2
|
| Dallas |
8
|
–
|
4
|
–
|
0
|
299
|
260
|
102.24
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102.54
|
104.33
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2
|
| Washington |
7
|
–
|
5
|
–
|
0
|
208
|
222
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99.35
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99.60
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100.76
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2
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| Philadelphia |
6
|
–
|
5
|
–
|
1
|
319
|
249
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106.51
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104.08
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103.69
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2
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| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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| NFC North |
Won
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Lost
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Tied
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Pts
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Opp
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Rating
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Mean
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Biased
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HTA
|
| Minnesota |
7
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–
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5
|
–
|
0
|
287
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260
|
104.10
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103.89
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103.77
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2
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| Chicago |
6
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–
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6
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–
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0
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281
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268
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101.43
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100.66
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101.39
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2
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| Green Bay |
5
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–
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7
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–
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0
|
334
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295
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105.13
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103.02
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101.41
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2
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| Detroit |
0
|
–
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12
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–
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0
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203
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393
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86.33
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89.17
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85.28
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3
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| |
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|
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| NFC South |
Won
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Lost
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Tied
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Pts
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Opp
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Rating
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Mean
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Biased
|
HTA
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| Tampa Bay |
9
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–
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3
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–
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0
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280
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200
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106.14
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104.70
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106.14
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2
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| Carolina |
9
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–
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3
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–
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0
|
285
|
231
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104.51
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103.12
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105.50
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2
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| Atlanta |
8
|
–
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4
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–
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0
|
298
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242
|
104.52
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103.34
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103.15
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2
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| New Orleans |
6
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–
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6
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–
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0
|
337
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301
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103.34
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102.65
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101.57
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2
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| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| NFC West |
Won
|
|
Lost
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Tied
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Pts
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Opp
|
Rating
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Mean
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Biased
|
HTA
|
| Arizona |
7
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–
|
5
|
–
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0
|
338
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313
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100.78
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101.15
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101.36
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3
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| San Francisco |
4
|
–
|
8
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–
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0
|
262
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313
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93.72
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95.48
|
95.81
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3
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| Seattle |
2
|
–
|
10
|
–
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0
|
216
|
311
|
91.84
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93.64
|
93.27
|
3
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| St. Louis |
2
|
–
|
10
|
–
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0
|
159
|
360
|
83.62
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87.97
|
88.09
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2
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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| AFC East |
Won
|
|
Lost
|
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Tied
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Pts
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Opp
|
Rating
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Mean
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Biased
|
HTA
|
| New York |
8
|
–
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4
|
–
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0
|
340
|
268
|
102.78
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102.82
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103.29
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2
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| New England |
7
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–
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5
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–
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0
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277
|
255
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99.85
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101.22
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101.79
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2
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| Miami |
7
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–
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5
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–
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0
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253
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257
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97.46
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97.61
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100.59
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2
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| Buffalo |
6
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–
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6
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–
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0
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276
|
259
|
97.28
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97.29
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99.29
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3
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| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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| AFC North |
Won
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Lost
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Tied
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Pts
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Opp
|
Rating
|
Mean
|
Biased
|
HTA
|
| Pittsburgh |
9
|
–
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3
|
–
|
0
|
269
|
170
|
108.99
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106.90
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107.15
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2
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| Baltimore |
8
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–
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4
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–
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0
|
292
|
190
|
109.14
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107.58
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106.12
|
3
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| Cleveland |
4
|
–
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8
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–
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0
|
213
|
247
|
98.35
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97.56
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95.36
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2
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| Cincinnati |
1
|
–
|
10
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–
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1
|
151
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310
|
91.98
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92.52
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90.07
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2
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| |
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| AFC South |
Won
|
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Lost
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Tied
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Pts
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Opp
|
Rating
|
Mean
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Biased
|
HTA
|
| Tennessee |
11
|
–
|
1
|
–
|
0
|
304
|
175
|
109.77
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107.45
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108.02
|
2
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| Indianapolis |
8
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–
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4
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–
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0
|
257
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250
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103.28
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103.37
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104.71
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2
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| Houston |
5
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–
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7
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–
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0
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282
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310
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98.33
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99.31
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99.30
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3
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| Jacksonville |
4
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–
|
8
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–
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0
|
241
|
270
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97.81
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97.65
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97.07
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3
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| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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| AFC West |
Won
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Lost
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Tied
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Pts
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Opp
|
Rating
|
Mean
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Biased
|
HTA
|
| Denver |
7
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–
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5
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–
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0
|
292
|
319
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96.59
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97.74
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101.04
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2
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| San Diego |
4
|
–
|
8
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–
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0
|
290
|
274
|
101.44
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99.65
|
98.79
|
2
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| Oakland |
3
|
–
|
9
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–
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0
|
172
|
265
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91.85
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93.46
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91.44
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2
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| Kansas City |
2
|
–
|
10
|
– |
0
|
216
|
340
|
90.51
|
92.66
|
91.61
|
2
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Note: due to the Thursday game, weather forecasts and odds are those as of Wednesday 12 Noon EST
You will now see multiple numbers given in the Vegas line and Ov/Un. I am listing the range given by the different books in Vegas and offshore as of 12 Noon EST Wednesday, so you can use the one that best meets your needs. Remember though, if you use parlays and teasers, you must use the same source. You cannot play a parlay using the odds from different books. What you will see in my “imaginary picks” below will show different books, but each teaser will be composed of games from the same book. I leave it to you to find out the book in question. Generally, some of the big ones in Vegas are: Hilton, Caesar’s-Harrah’s, MGM Mirage, Stations, Leroy’s, Wynn, Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, and The Palms. Some of the large offshore books include: BetUs, Bodog, Sportsbook, BetJamaica, and Pinnacle.
NFL Previews-Week 14
Oakland (3-9-0) at San Diego (4-8-0)
Time: 8:15 PM EST, Thursday
TV: NFL Network
Forecast: Mostly cloudy, light wind, temperature falling from the low 60’s to the upper 50’s
PiRate: San Diego by 12
Mean: San Diego by 8
Bias: San Diego by 9
Vegas: San Diego by 9,9.5, 10, 10.5
Ov/Un: 42, 42.5
100 Sims: San Diego 83 Oakland 17
Avg Sim Score: San Diego 29.6 Oakland 15.1
Outlier 1a Sim: San Diego 48 Oakland 10
Outlier 1b Sim: Oakland 24 San Diego 14
Strategy: Over 32 in 10-point teaser, Over 29 in 13-point teaser
The Raiders lost at home to Kansas City last week after winning big at Denver the week before. San Diego is slowly rotting away and appears out of the playoff picture. I don’t expect a stellar effort from either side, but I do expect enough shenanigans due to national TV exposure for there to be some offensive fireworks. I believe this game should see both teams top 17 points, so teasing the Over is how to play this one.
Atlanta (7-5-0) at New Orleans (6-6-0)
Time: 1:00 PM EST
TV: Fox
Forecast: Dome
PiRate: New Orleans by 1
Mean: New Orleans by 1
Bias: Tossup
Vegas: New Orleans by 3
Ov/Un: 51, 51.5, 52
100 Sims: New Orleans 57 Atlanta 43
Avg Sim Score: New Orleans 27.9 Atlanta 24.5
Outlier 1a Sim: New Orleans 45 Atlanta 24
Outlier 1b Sim: Atlanta 31 New Orleans 20
Strategy: Over 41 in 10-point teaser, Over 38 in 13-point teaser, Under 65 in 13-point teaser
This will be an exciting game, and I expect both teams to score 21 or more points. Drew Brees was not on target last week, and the Saints paid for it with a loss. The Falcons won the first meeting in Atlanta, and this is a must-win for New Orleans. If the dirty birds win, the Saints can go marching away from the playoffs. I look for New Orleans to win the game and score 24-34 points. They’ve given up 28 points per game in their last six contests, so I really like teasing the Over in this game. Using another book’s high totals number, the Under 65 is enticing. I am not as excited as the Over, but 65 points are asking a lot from both teams. Think about a 35-28 game; that’s still not enough to sink us. Of course, this could be a 38-35 game, so use this one with caution. My best guess is 28-24 Saints.
Philadelphia (6-5-1) at New York Giants (11-1)
Time: 1:00 PM EST
TV: Fox
Forecast: Intermittent snow showers, light to moderate winds, temperature in the mid to upper 30’s
PiRate: Giants by 6
Mean: Giants by 8
Bias: Giants by 7
Vegas: Giants by 6.5, 7, 7.5
Ov/Un: 43, 43.5, 44
100 Sims: Giants 89 Philadelphia 11
Avg Sim Score: Giants 30.2 Philadelphia 22.6
Outlier 1a Sim: Giants 44 Philadelphia 17
Outlier 1b Sim: Philadelphia 27 Giants 24 (2 games)
Strategy: Over 33 in 10-point teaser, Over 30 in 13-point teaser
Four weeks ago, these teams hooked up in a fantastic game in Philadelphia with the Giants winning 36-31. The Eagles need this game to have a realistic shot at a wildcard berth. If they can pull off the upset, I believe they will be no worse than 9-6-1 and could possibly run the table to finish 10-5-1. If they lose, they could easily finish 8-7-1 or worse, and that won’t get them into the postseason.
The Giants could be the next repeat Super Bowl Champion. In the past, the second championship team is usually a better defensive team than the prior year’s team. It’s no different with New York, but the Eagles have the talent to score points on them.
For what it’s worth, 94 of the 100 simulations on this game produced results with a total score of 35 and above. I will go with the simulator and call for a 30-21 score in favor of the Giants; that means, I’m teasing the Over in this one.
Jacksonville (4-8-0) at Chicago (6-6-0)
Time: 1PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in mid 20’s
PiRate: Chicago by 6
Mean: Chicago by 5
Bias: Chicago by 6
Vegas: Chicago by 6.5
Ov/Un: 39.5, 40, 40.5
100 Sims: Chicago 79 Jacksonville 21
Avg Sim Score: Chicago 25.3 Jacksonville 16.9
Outlier 1a Sim: Chicago 37 Jacksonville 10
Outlier 1b Sim: Jacksonville 24 Chicago 17
Strategy: Over 26½ in 13-point teaser
This game scares me this week. Both teams are headed in the wrong direction. Chicago is still alive in the mediocre NFC North, where a 9-7 record could win the division. The Jaguars are done for the season and have little to play for. Their offense has continued to misfire, as the Jags have scored less than 20 points in five of the last six games (that one offensive outburst came against Detroit).
The weather should be very Chicago-like for December, and I don’t think the Jags will like it very much. I look for the Bears to have their way this week, but I am worried that the elements could make it a better day for the defenses. I am looking at a 20-10 win for Chicago, and that’s just enough to consider playing the Over in a 13-point teaser. However, I’m not married to this game.
Minnesota (7-5-0) at Detroit (0-12-0)
Time: 1PM EST
TV: Fox
Forecast: Dome
PiRate: Minnesota by 15
Mean: Minnesota by 12
Bias: Minnesota by 15
Vegas: Minnesota by 7.5, 8, 9
Ov/Un: 45, 46.5
100 Sims: Minnesota 96 Detroit 4
Avg Sim Score: Minnesota 30.2 Detroit 14.4
Outlier 1a Sim: Minnesota 51 Detroit 12
Outlier 1b Sim: Detroit 24 Minnesota 20
Strategy: Minnesota +5½ in 13-point teaser, Over 32 in 13-point teaser
I thought that Detroit would eventually put it all together and pull off a win or two this year. I still believe they might win a game before the season ends, and this is a week where they may believe they can win. The Lions only lost to Minnesota 12-10 the first time, and they will have the confidence to go out there and play unlike an 0-12 team.
Detroit has the benefit of three extra preparation days, while Minnesota is coming off a Sunday night game. The intangibles weigh heavily in favor of the Lions. I still will pick the Vikings to win or at least lose by five or fewer points. If Detroit pulls off the upset, I expect it to be by a field goal or less with the game decided at the very end.
Minnesota’s defense is missing some key components, and I think Detroit will score 17-21 points in this game. The Vikings should be able to run the ball for 150+ yards, and that should allow Gus Frerotte to put 20 points on the board. Thus, I like teasing the Over in this game.
Houston (5-7-0) at Green Bay (5-7-0)
Time: 1PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in the mid to upper teens
PiRate: Green Bay by 9
Mean: Green Bay by 6
Bias: Green Bay by 4
Vegas: Green Bay by 6
Ov/Un: 47, 47.5
100 Sims: Houston 52 Green Bay 48
Avg Sim Score: Houston 32.3 Green Bay 31.8
Outlier 1a Sim: Houston 47 Green Bay 28
Outlier 1b Sim: Green Bay 30 Houston 14
Strategy: Over 34½ in 13-point teaser
Both teams are 5-7, but the similarities end there. Houston is 5-7 and on the rise, while Green Bay is 5-7 and on the decline. The Packers have dropped four out of their last five games to fall two games in back of division-leading Minnesota. The Texans have won five of eight after starting 0-3.
Both of these teams could top 30 points against the opposition defense, but the weather could be a big factor this week. With temperatures expected to be between 15 and 19 degrees over the course of the afternoon, Houston may not be ready to handle the elements. Green Bay still has a remote shot at running the table and finishing 9-7 and winning the division. Houston has no chance of getting into the playoffs. In a last-ditch, must-win game, I expect Green Bay to win this game, but my safe choice here is to take the Over in a 13-point teaser. Even with a frozen tundra playing surface, these teams should combine for at least 45 points and as many as 70.
Cleveland (4-8-0) at Tennessee (11-1-0)
Time: 1:00 PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Sunny, light wind, temperature in the upper 30’s
PiRate: Tennessee by 13
Mean: Tennessee by 12
Bias: Tennessee by 15
Vegas: Tennessee by 13.5, 14, 15
Ov/Un: 37.5, 38
100 Sims: Tennessee 88 Cleveland 12
Avg Sim Score: Tennessee 30.7 Cleveland 19.4
Outlier 1a Sim: Tennessee 41 Cleveland 10
Outlier 1b Sim: Cleveland 28 Tennessee 23
Strategy: Cleveland +28 in 13-point teaser, Over 24 ½ in 13-point teaser
Cleveland has very little left to play for this year. The Browns are now down to their third quarterback in Ken Dorsey, and they won’t have Kellen Winslow for this game as well. Their defense has a tough time stopping the run.
Tennessee will run the ball until Cleveland can stop it, and I don’t expect the Browns to consistently stop it. The Titans will throw a host of blitzes and dogs at Dorsey, and it should be a long day for the Cleveland attack.
The weather will be more like Cleveland than Nashville, so that might help the Browns a little. What I expect to help the Browns even more is the possibility that Titan Coach Jeff Fisher may choose to play overly conservative and possibly remove Kerry Collins if Tennessee is up by three touchdowns in the third quarter.
I believe the Titans will win this game with a score similar to 27-10. It’s hard to ask them to win by more than four touchdowns, so I like the Browns as part of a 13-point teaser. It’s not asking much to cover 24½ points, so I like teasing the Over.
One caveat to remember: Cleveland beat the Giants by three touchdowns, and the Browns would like nothing more than to beat the top team in the AFC to make it a wonderful double.
Cincinnati (1-10-1) at Indianapolis (8-4-0)
Time: 1:00PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Roof will be closed
PiRate: Indianapolis by 13
Mean: Indianapolis by 13
Bias: Indianapolis by 17
Vegas: Indianapolis by 13.5, 14, 15
Ov/Un: 41.5, 42, 42,5
100 Sims: Indianapolis 98 Cincinnati 2
Avg Sim Score: Indianapolis 34.7 Cincinnati 13.8
Outlier 1a Sim: Indianapolis 49 Cincinnati 0
Outlier 1b Sim: Cincinnati 27 Indianapolis 24
Strategy: Indianapolis -½ in a 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in a 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in a 13-point teaser
Indianapolis is on a roll, and I expect them to keep winning in the regular season. They could easily run the table and finish 12-4 on a nine-game winning streak.
Cincinnati has nothing left to play for. The team is rife with dissension, and I expect major changes in the off-season. I am surprised that the simulator even had them winning one of the 100 simulations. The two wins it gave the Bengals were by one and three points.
I am going to have faith in the simulator this week and believe that Indy has a 98% chance of winning the game. So, that tells me to take the Peyton Manning and company as part of a 13-point teaser. I expect the Colts to top 28 points with plenty of time left in the game, so even if the Bengals lay a goose egg on the scoreboard, this game should see at least 30 points scored.
Kansas City (2-10-0) at Denver (7-5-0)
Time: 4:05 PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in the mid 50’s
PiRate: Denver by 8
Mean: Denver by 7
Bias: Denver by 11
Vegas: Denver by 8, 8.5, 9, 9.5, 10
Ov/Un: 48, 48.5, 49
100 Sims: Denver 79 Kansas City 21
Avg Sim Score: Denver 33.0 Kansas City 20.3
Outlier 1a Sim: Denver 55 Kansas City 17
Outlier 1b Sim: Kansas City 31 Denver 24
Strategy: Over 35 in 13-point teaser
Denver is so unpredictable. They lost at Kansas City earlier in the season. They lost at home to Oakland. Yet, they won on the road against the Jets and won at Atlanta.
Kansas City is coming off a road win over rival Oakland, and the Chiefs have the confidence in knowing they stopped Jay Cutler once before.
My guess here is that the Chiefs will keep this game close enough to have a chance to win in the fourth quarter, but they will come up a bit short. I think they will top 17 points for sure and should top 20. Denver will score 21 to 31 points, so once again, I like teasing the Over as well as taking the revenge-mindful Broncos as a dog in a 13-point teaser.
Miami (7-5-0) vs. Buffalo (6-6-0) at Toronto
Time: 4:05PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Dome
PiRate: Buffalo by 1
Mean: Buffalo by 1
Bias: Tossup
Vegas: Buffalo by 0, 1, 1.5
Ov/Un: 42, 42.5
100 Sims: Miami 56 Buffalo 44
Avg Sim Score: Miami 24.7 Buffalo 22.1
Outlier 1a Sim: Miami 38 Buffalo 17
Outlier 1b Sim: Buffalo 27 Miami 14
Strategy: Over 32 in 10-point teaser, Over 29 in 13-point teaser
So you want to see a really good game this week, eh? You like a good, hard-fought game in the trenches, eh? Then head north of the border to beautiful Toronto and catch this key game with major playoff implications.
The thing I like most about games played in unusual places is that they frequently take on the traits of Monday night games. They usually end up being higher scoring than a typical game.
Miami beat the Bills 25-16 at Dolphins Stadium in October, and if this game were in Buffalo, I would pick the Bills to even the score.
The Rogers Centre (Skydome) is maybe worth one point of home advantage for Buffalo. This game is a tossup, but I expect both teams to score 17 points or more. That gives us a play in the teasers.
New York Jets (8-4-0) at San Francisco (4-8-0)
Time: 4:05PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature near 60
PiRate: Jets by 6
Mean: Jets by 4
Bias: Jets by 4
Vegas: Jets by 3.5, 4
Ov/Un: 44, 44.5
100 Sims: Jets 62 San Francisco 38
Avg Sim Score: Jets 25.1 San Francisco 20.4
Outlier 1a Sim: Jets 49 San Francisco 24
Outlier 1b Sim: San Francisco 20 Jets 14
Strategy: Over 31 in 13-point teaser
I don’t really like any plays in this game this week. What can we make of the 49ers going to Buffalo and winning handily? What can we make of the Jets crashing at home against Denver’s marginally decent defense?
I would normally call for San Francisco to bounce and stink up the joint this week, while Brett Favre rebounds with a big day. However, since Mike Singletary took over control of Frisco, the 49ers have been a different team. They could be on the verge of living up to their expectations, albeit too late to get them into the playoffs.
I believe this game will be close, and San Francisco has a decent shot at the upset-maybe as much as a 55% chance. If you are a real aggressive player, then you might consider taking the 49ers at +4 or even at +175 in a money line play. I choose to stick with a teasing of the Over in this one. Look for the score to be close with both teams topping 17 points. 31 points isn’t asking much in this one.
New England (7-5-0) at Seattle (2-10-0)
Time: 4:05 PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Rain showers, light wind, temperature in the mid to upper 40’s
PiRate: New England by 5
Mean: New England by 5
Bias: New England by 6
Vegas: New England by 4.5, 5.5
Ov/Un: 43, 43.5
100 Sims: New England 60 Seattle 40
Avg Sim Score: New England 23.1 Seattle 17.7
Outlier 1a Sim: New England 37 Seattle 16
Outlier 1b Sim: Seattle 24 New England 13
Strategy: Over 30 in 13-point teaser
If you have read this far, you have obviously noted the trend I am pointing to this week. In a large majority of games this year, the teams have scored more than 13 points below the totals line. In a small majority of games this year, the teams have scored less than 13 points above the totals line. Thus, using the totals by playing the Over in 13-point teasers has a high chance of winning if you can pick the correct four games.
I have no desire to pick a winner in this game. The Patriots are making a 3000-mile trek across three time zones to take on a wounded Seahawks team in adverse weather conditions. New England is 10-14 points better than Seattle on a neutral field in ideal weather conditions. The long distance and possible strong rain could neutralize most of that advantage.
I am tempted to call for this game to be very low scoring with the Patriots struggling to win 14-13. I don’t think this game will see 45 points scored, and I am not all that sure that 35 total points will be scored. 30 points can be satisfied at 17-14 or 21-10. It’s a little bit of a gamble, but I think 31 total points can be scored in this game, even if it is played in a monsoon. A key turnover could lead to a defense scoring in this one.
Dallas (8-4-0) at Pittsburgh (9-3-0)
Time: 4:15 PM EST
TV: Fox
Forecast: Snow showers, strong wind, temperature falling from around 30 to the upper 20’s
PiRate: Pittsburgh by 9
Mean: Pittsburgh by 6
Bias: Pittsburgh by 5
Vegas: Pittsburgh by 2.5, 3
Ov/Un: 40, 40.5, 41
100 Sims: Pittsburgh 55 Dallas 45
Avg Sim Score: Pittsburgh 24.6 Dallas 22.8
Outlier 1a Sim: Pittsburgh 30 Dallas 17
Outlier 1b Sim: Dallas 28 Pittsburgh 21
Strategy: Over 30 in a 10-point teaser, Over 27 in a 13-point teaser
There are five really big games this week, and this one may be the best of the lot. These teams are playing their best ball of the season, and it should make for a great game. An added bonus in this one is the fact that both teams have key intra-division games the following week. If either or both teams’ players subconsciously look ahead to their big games next week, I expect it to affect their defenses more than their offenses. Thus, if there is any intangible to take from the fact that Dallas must play the Giants and Pittsburgh must play Baltimore next week, it should lead to more points being scored in this game.
Remember that Dallas has enjoyed an extra three days off for this game. However, in the past, the Cowboys have tended to under perform following their Thanksgiving game.
I believe the Steelers will win this game, and they will hold Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, and company below 20 points. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers won by more than a touchdown, but I feel more comfortable calling for them to win by a field goal. The score could be 20-17, but I don’t expect it to be any lower scoring than that.
St. Louis (2-10-0) at Arizona (7-5-0)
Time: 4:15 PM EST
TV: Fox
Forecast: Roof likely closed
PiRate: Arizona by 20
Mean: Arizona by 16
Bias: Arizona by 16
Vegas: Arizona by 14
Ov/Un: 48, 48.5
100 Sims: Arizona 91 St. Louis 9
Avg Sim Score: Arizona 37.6 St. Louis 17.8
Outlier 1a Sim: Arizona 62 St. Louis 17
Outlier 1b Sim: St. Louis 27 Arizona 24
Strategy: Under 58½ in a 10-point teaser, Under 61½ in a 13-point teaser
This is one of the few games where I like teasing the Under as opposed to the Over. St. Louis shouldn’t contribute too many points in this game. The Rams scored just 13 points at home against the Cardinals in their first meeting, and they have failed to score 17 points for six consecutive weeks.
Arizona has dropped two games in a row to tough NFC East opponents. The Cardinals have been outscored in their six games since their bye week. They may feel some heat headed into this game, as their lead over San Francisco, while comfortable, is not insurmountable. If they lose this game, and SF beats the Jets, who knows what may happen in the final three weeks?
It only takes a win this week coupled with a Jets win in the Bay for the Cardinals to clinch the NFC West. I believe there’s a strong chance it will happen. The Cardinals cannot lose this game. I’m looking for a 35-10 win, and that’s well beneath the teaser points.
Washington (7-5-0) at Baltimore (8-4-0)
Time: 8:15PM EST
TV: NBC
Forecast: Scattered showers, strong wind, temperature falling from upper to mid 30’s
PiRate: Baltimore by 13
Mean: Baltimore by 11
Bias: Baltimore by 8
Vegas: Baltimore by 5, 5.5, 6
Ov/Un: 35, 35.5, 36
100 Sims: Baltimore 63 Washington 36 1 Tie
Avg Sim Score: Baltimore 22.9 Washington 19.4
Outlier 1a Sim: Baltimore 27 Washington 6
Outlier 1b Sim: Washington 20 Baltimore 13
Strategy: Over 25½ in a 10-point teaser, Over 22½ in a 13-point teaser
This game is not that big of a rivalry game. Even when the Colts played in Baltimore in the pre-merger days, this wasn’t that much of a rivalry. The Orioles and Senators also didn’t have that much of a rivalry in the years they were both in the American League.
I don’t look at this game like it is a battle between Green Bay and Minnesota or Kansas City and Oakland. It’s just another key game played on primetime, national television.
My immediate impulse is to play the Over in any NBC Sunday night game. I am a little bit on the fence in this one, but in the end, I think we can win by teasing the Over.
Washington’s offense has nearly disappeared in the last month. The Redskins have scored just 43 total points in their last four games and only 99 points in their last seven games. Baltimore’s defense gives up just 15.8 points per game. I believe the Ravens can hold Washington to 10 points or even less in this game. Let’s say, the Redskins score just seven points. All Baltimore would have to do to help us win a 13-point teaser would be to score 16 points. The Ravens have won six of seven games, and in those six wins, they have averaged 34 points per game. ‘Nuf Ced.
Tampa Bay (9-3-0) at Carolina (9-3-0)
Time: 8:30PM EST Monday
TV: ESPN
Forecast: Clear, light wind, temperature falling from the low 40’s to the upper 30’s
PiRate: Tossup
Mean: Tossup
Bias: Carolina by 1
Vegas: Carolina by 3
Ov/Un: 38, 38.5
100 Sims: Carolina 52 Tampa Bay 48
Avg Sim Score: Carolina 26.8 Tampa Bay 26.3
Outlier 1a Sim: Carolina 31 Tampa Bay 14
Outlier 1b Sim: Tampa Bay 24 Carolina 12
Strategy: Over 28 in a 10-point teaser, Over 25 in a 13-point teaser
This just might be the best Monday night game of the season. To the winner goes first place in the NFC South and an almost certain trip to the playoffs. The loser will still be very much in the wildcard hunt, but the winner will be at home for the first playoff game and should get a bye, while the loser will have to play on the road and play the first week.
Jake Delhomme has returned to the form that he had when he led the Panthers to the Super Bowl. He will be ready to make amends for the toilet bowl showing his team displayed in Tampa in the first meeting of these teams. I expect the Panthers to score early and often in this game. They could put it out of reach if the Bucs are not ready defensively.
Could Tampa not be ready on the stop side? Rumors have been spreading like wildfire that famed defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin may be leaving the Bucs to join his son Lane’s staff at the University of Tennessee. Monte is an old, grizzled veteran, and I don’t expect anything but a 100% effort from him. His players are another story. They could be affected by the news.
I am going with Carolina to even the score and win this game by more than a touchdown. However, my only advisable plays here are the good ole teasers. As with all Monday night games, I’m going with the Over in both 10 and 13-point teasers.
Yuck, Part 2!!!
If you read this far the last two weeks, and you have made it this far this week, then you must be either my wife, dad, brother, brother-in-law, or close friend. The last two weeks were stinkers. I thought for sure I would recover from the 2-8-1 debacle of two weeks ago. 4-17-0 is the type of successful recovery that we see in government bailouts. I’ll need someone to funnel me 8+ trillion bucks to an offshore account if I keep picking games this poorly.
This week, I am playing much more conservatively. I have been looking to see what has worked this year, and it has been teasers involving totals and not sides. So, that’s where I will be concentrating my efforts.
For the season, the record against the spread has fallen to 89-73-7, dropping me under 60% (54.9%) for the first time. It’s time to start the recovery for real, and I’m looking at those totals this week.
Here are my wagers for week 14 (all wagered to win $100 or $100 wagered if at + odds on a parlay or money line):
1. 10-point teaser
San Diego & Oakland Over 32
Indianapolis & Cincinnati Over 31½
New York Giants & Philadelphia Over 33
2. 10-point teaser
New Orleans & Atlanta Over 41
Buffalo & Miami Over 32
Carolina & Tampa Bay Over 28
3. 13-point teaser
San Diego & Oakland Over 29
Indianapolis & Cincinnati Over 28½
Chicago & Jacksonville Over 26½
Green Bay & Houston Over 34½
4. 13-point teaser
Tennessee & Cleveland Over 24½
Minnesota & Detroit Over 32
Baltimore & Washington Over 22½
NY Giants & Philadelphia Over 30
5. 13-point teaser
New Orleans & Atlanta Over 38
NY Jets & San Francisco Over 31
Buffalo & Miami Over 29
Denver & Kansas City Over 35
6. 13-point teaser
Arizona & St. Louis Under 61½
Pittsburgh & Dallas Over 27
New England & Seattle Over 30
Carolina & Tampa Bay Over 25
7. 13-point teaser
Indianapolis -½ vs. Cincinnati
Cleveland +28 vs. Tennessee
Denver +5 vs. Kansas City
Minnesota +5½ vs. Detroit
AND REMEMBER!!! Do not use these picks for real. I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment. I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either. This is strictly for fun.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 