The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 8, 2021

PiRate Picks For September 9-13, 2021

Last week’s opening picks missed, as Virginia Tech made Sam Howell look like Thurston Howell. Duke then failed to show up against Charlotte, and poof, our two picks were destroyed. Such is life when you wager on parlays that return the odds we look for when we place our imaginary wagers.

We have two more picks returning some fat odds this week, and maybe we’ll get lucky and hit on one. We will also tell you a week 1 tip for the NFL. Although we are here just for Money Line Parlays this year, it doesn’t mean we cannot give out a little interesting information.

Here are our two Money Line Parlays for Week two of the college season. We will eventually pick some NFL games, but Week one is not the time and place for that.

Parlay 1

Odds:+224
Must WinOpponent
VirginiaIllinois
RutgersSyracuse
MichiganWashington

Parlay 2

Odds:+180.56
Must WinOpponent
Mississippi St.North Carolina St.
TCUCalifornia

Here’s our tip for Week 1 of the NFL season. Underdogs of 1 to 3 points tend to win outright 50% of the time, but they also lose by less than 3 points another 8-10% of the time. That’s 58-60% success for wagering on 3-point Underdogs.

There are seven games as of this writing with a 3-point spread. The Dogs are:

Houston against Jacksonville

Arizona against Tennessee

Philadelphia against Atlanta

Indianapolis against Seattle

Cincinnati against Minnesota

Miami against New England

N.Y. Giants against Denver

September 1, 2021

PiRate Picks For September 1-6, 2021

Last week, we explained what our PiRate Picks are all about. We even gave you a sample Money Line Parlay that included Illinois beating Nebraska, UTEP beating New Mexico St., and UCLA beating Hawaii. This parlay had payout odds of +341, which meant if you wagered $100, and the teams all won, you would receive $441 in return. But, we made sure you understood that this was a sample and not official.

As of Monday afternoon, three people had notified us that they had played a little real currency on this parlay and were quite happy with their return.

How many times can we state this? Please do not bet real money on our just for fun selections! Okay, so one of you wagered $20, one of you wagered $50, and one of you wagered $100 on this parlay and won money. These same people could just as easily have lost this wager, and there is no guarantee that this week’s two selections have a snowball’s chance in Hades of winning.

We strongly urge you to look at these selections as mathematical entertainment and nothing else. If you are going to wager real money on sports, please do your research. Don’t rely on this site as your substitute for research. We use mathematical factors and not actual research to make these selections.

That said, we have two actual Money Line parlays this week, involving five games. If you did not read last week’s tutorial, or if you are a long-time follower of this site and need a refresher course, our expertise is the Money Line Parlay. The Money Line is a number, plus or minus. If the number is a minus, then you must wager this number of dollars against the book’s offering $100. So, a -145 means you the bettor must put up $145 to win $100 from the book. If you bet $145 on this game and won, you would receive $245 from the book ($100 + your investment money). If the number is positive, for every $100 you wager, the book offers the amount of the the positive numbers in dollars. So, a +170 means that if you wager $100 and win, the book will give you $270 ($170 + your investment).

When you wager on the money line, all that matters is that your selection wins. They can win by one point or 100 points; it doesn’t make a difference.

Obviously, if you want to wager on Alabama against Louisiana-Monroe, expect the Money Line to be about -100,000. You would have to wager $100,000 to win $100. If you wagered $100 on this parlay, when Alabama wins, you would receive one dime in profit, and the book would possibly not accept this one wager.

Obviously, it is much easier to bet a favorite to win, but you will receive less than even money odds. A -240 favorite equates to the team having a 70% chance of winning the game. If you believe that team has a better than 70% chance of winning, it might be worth your while to wager on it. If you win 75% of the time you wager on a -240 money line, you will turn a small profit.

The problem with wagering on favorites is that it is quite difficult to maintain the percentage needed to make a profit. Betting on 20 different teams at -240 and winning 13 of 20 means a loss of $380.

If you wager on a bunch of underdogs, there is also little chance that in the long run you will come out ahead. The answer to this is to bundle a group of favorites into a parlay that returns better than even money odds. For our purposes, we look for parlays of +120 and higher. At +150, we break even if the teams we wager on to win all win more than 40% of the time. At +200, if the parlay has a better than 33.3% chance on winning, we turn a profit.

It looks easy. Try it yourself without wagering. Look at the Money Line odds and make a parlay. There are free parlay calculators online to show you your odds. Try it with 10 parlays and see if you can win enough to make it work. You will find that the books know what they are doing. They build billion dollar mega-structures in the desert, because they know how to vacuum your money into their accounts.

Here are our two selections for Week 1 of the College Football Season. Remember, these are just for fun. We have a bottomless pretend bank account to repeatedly wager $100 on every selection.

Odds:+125
Must WinOpponent
Central FloridaBoise St.
DukeCharlotte


Odds:+265.98
Must WinOpponent
North CarolinaVirginia Tech
Kansas St.Stanford
PurdueOregon St.

August 26, 2021

PiRate Picks For August 28, 2021

Welcome to all the newcomers to the PiRate Ratings site for the 2021-2022 football season. Saturday, we have the fortune of having a dress rehearsal for the college football season. Nine FBS teams will be in action, as one FBS team plays an FCS opponent.

The PiRate Ratings enjoy issuing picks against the spread or money line on Thursdays each week until January. Because we are most concerned with Money Line Parlays, there are only five options to combine games this week, and many of the books do not issue a line for FBS vs. FCS games. So, in a quest to obtain the best odds, there really are just four games.

This presents multiple issues that basically make it close to impossible to issue a real wager, because the options don’t fit our paradigm. Let’s take a look.

First, before we get started, you must know and understand one thing. We offer these selections purely for the fun of it. It is math and not gambling to us. We NEVER bet on sports. We play with a pretend bankroll that never runs out. We wager the same amount of fake currency on every selection–$100. It could just as easily be $5, $10, $1000, $5000, whatever, but $100 is an easy number and typical of many wagers in real life.

Second, we urge you with everything we can say about it to NOT use this weekly feature as betting advice, unless you have legitimate advice or are a professional, and then this becomes a secondary reference.

Third, we hunt around for the best possible odds on our pretend wagers. You may or may not be able to find the same odds we do, because you would have to search at the exact same time we do. Because, we are not limited to just the legal books available to us in our state of Tennessee, where betting is legal, we might pick a parlay based on a sports book that is only for people in Nevada, or New Jersey, or even off shore.

Okay, now that you know the ground rules, here is our specialty–Money Line Parlays. The money line is different from the spread of a game, but the number is the equivalent of a spread. If a team is favored by 7 points, their money line is going to be roughly -330, and if a team is a 7-point underdog, their money line is going to be roughly +250.

How does a Money Line work? If the line is a negative number, if you wager the amount of the negative number and win, you will receive $100 plus the amount you wagered. So, if you wager on a team at -300, and you bet $300, if the bet wins, you will get back $400 (your investment money plus $100). If you lose, you are out the $300. On the other hand, if the line is a positive number, you can win that amount of money with a $100 wager. So, if the line on a team is +300, you can wager $100, and if the team wins, you receive $400 (your investment money plus $300).

In Money Line wagers, all that matters is that the team you picked wins the game, be it by 1 point or 63 points. Obviously, if Alabama is playing Mercer, the odds are going to be such that to win $100, you will have to put up maybe $100,000. So, if you bet $100 on Alabama at -100000, when Alabama wins, you receive $100.01. Would you risk $100,000 to win one penny?

When you wager on more than one money line to win as one bet, this is called a parlay. Let’s say that you like Mississippi State to beat Arkansas and Oklahoma State to beat Texas Tech. Mississippi State’s money line number is -275. Oklahoma State’s money line number is -250. By combining these two wagers into one bet, with $100 riding on the outcome, instead of attempting to win a little more than $36 on MSU and $40 on OSU, by combining the two games into a parlay, you stand to win almost $91 if both teams win. If you bet them individually, you would only win $76, so by combining the two, you win $15 more. Of course, if one team wins and the other loses, your losses would be less by playing the games separately.

The question you most likely wanted to ask while reading the above paragraph is, “Why risk playing two separate games that both teams you selected must win and still not get even money?” Did you ask it? The answer to that question is, “You are correct; why wager $100 to just win $91 and then have to be right twice to cash it?” You can bet a regular game against the spread and get 11-10 odds, just a fraction better than the odds of the parlay above.

The ultimate answer is that we are only looking for parlays that pay better than even money. We really don’t want to play any parlays at less than +120 odds, where we would win $6 for every $5 wagered.

The next question you might have is, “Isn’t finding two teams to win and pay off at +120 going to require me to bet an underdog to win outright?”

Our answer to you is, “Yes, but we don’t look for many two-team money line parlays. Let’s take a look at another example with three teams.

Let’s say that we believe that Washington will beat Oregon State, and the money line is -260.

We also believe that Army will beat Temple, and the money line is -240.

And, we believe that Wisconsin will beat Purdue, and the money line is -250.

If you wager $100 on these three teams to win, and all three teams win, your payout is just under $175 plus the $100 you wagered for almost $275 ($274.62 to be exact.)

Let’s take a look at 5 wagers, where we win two and lose three at these odds

We bet $500 at $100 for 5 wagers.

On the two winning wagers, we receive $275 * 2 or $550.

Invest $500 and win $550 by being right 40% of the time. In one week, we have made a 10% return on an investment. What investment on the Stock Market makes a 10% gain in one week after you have paid the commissions on the trip?

Ah, but here’s the rub: how often can you wager on 5 money line parlays that average +175 and win 40% of the parlays? Most people fall into this trap and only win about one of five of these parlays. At 20% success, you lose $225 a week for a 45% loss. Now, where can you loses 45% in the stock market in one week? We put our real money in high-cap value stocks with durable competitive advantages, long histories of consistent increases in earnings, and long histories of consistent dividend payouts. The pretend money is just fine for football wagering.

By now, you want to know who we are picking in Week 0 of the college football season. Maybe, you have figured it out already. We don’t have any official picks this week, because there are not enough games to come up with a parlay better than +120.

Here is a practice parlay that is not an official pick, but shown here to show you what we mean.

The three games involved are: Nebraska versus Illinois, UCLA versus Hawaii, and UTEP versus New Mexico St.

Let’s say that we think Illinois will upset the Cornhuskers, UCLA will take care of Hawaii, and UTEP will win the big rivalry game.

Here are the three Money Lines for these three games.

Illinois +215 vs. Nebraska

UCLA -875 vs. Hawaii

UTEP -390 vs. New Mexico St.

This parlay calculates to +341. If we wager $100 on this game, and Illinois, UCLA, and UTEP all win, we receive $441 in our account (The $100 we wagered plus the $341 on the win).

Why isn’t this an official pick? We believe that Illinois might have been an excellent pick against the spread when the Illinois-Nebraska game spread opened at -9 1/2. But, it has come down to -6 1/2 as of this writing. Sharp money was wagers on Illinois +9 1/2, and also on Nebraska -6 1/2. A three-point middling is too good to be true. Playing both sides, the Sharps only need to have the game win both sides one out of every 19 times (5.26%) to make a profit. The spreads of 7, 8, and 9 account for 10.8% of all FBS college football games. That’s double the amount needed to make a profit. The key is the Sharps can find these spreads when they open. Also, playing the opening lines is the most effective way to win for a Sharp.

The UTEP-New Mexico State game is the biggest issue in this parlay. One axiom that older Sharps believe in is not to rely on a losing program to have to win for you to win. The Miners are probably a 3-9 team, which is almost a good year for this program. The Aggies are really weak and should be an underdog in every game, but this is their big rival, maybe bigger than playing New Mexico. The I-10 rivalry frequently is a tossup game.

Two out of three of these games are iffy. The chances that Illinois pulls off the upset of Nebraska are not good enough to have faith in this parlay winning. Scott Frost is in deep cow poo if the Cornhuskers don’t win at least six games and earn a bowl bid, and losing to the weakest Big Ten team will turn the heater on in his heated seat. This will be Bret Bielema’s first game as Illinois head coach, and he brought in an offensive coordinator that runs a system totally different from what the Illini ran under Lovie Smith. Expect growing pains.

We hope this gets you pumped for next week, when there will be more than enough games to play some parlays.

December 4, 2020

PiRate Picks for December 4-7, 2020

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:22 am

A Day Late — Hopefully Not A Dollar Short

We are publishing our most popular weekly feature at the PiRate Ratings a day later than normal. Four weeks of issuing some interesting parlays that we had a lot of faith in as winners only to see the games cancel the day that we published them forced us to take an extra 24 hours to try to eliminate the chances that we would see five parlays become void just after putting them out on this forum. Additionally, we tried to avoid games that involved teams that have forewarned that even as late as Friday afternoon, they could decide not to play. Also, there is the case of one team that is in danger of not having enough scholarship players remaining. Their choices would be to fold up operations for the year or play under the 53-man (or in this case 53-man and woman) limit.

Last week, we broke even, which is no fun. Our winning week was just a minute from being guaranteed, until the Baltimore Ravens scored at the end to make that game a push. It happens.

This week, we are stressing money line parlays paying off at better than even money odds. November was very kind to us in these plays, as we made a big fat profit on these better than +100 odds games. We are only going with one NFL selection, but in our statistical minds, it is our best parlay of the entire season–kiss of death!

Before looking at our selections for the week, please remember, that we have lost no money this year or any past year when issuing these selections, because we NEVER wager a penny on them. All of our picks are made with imaginary money at an imaginary book. We do know from your feedback that many of you actually use this site for wagering advice, but we don’t understand why. If you want to throw away hard-earned money because of something you read here, why not just donate that amount to a worthy charity. Our favorite charity with the five lasses that help me here on the PiRate ship is “Save A Fox” in Faribault, Minnesota: https://www.saveafox.org/.

Enjoy the selections, and the way to enjoy them is by keeping your money in your wallet.

College Money Line Parlays
1. 2-teams at +107.96
Must WinOpponentOdds
Miami (Fla.)Duke+107.96
MissouriArkansas

2. 3-teams at +145.28
Must WinOpponentOdds
Western Mich.Eastern Mich.
WashingtonStanford;+145.28
CincinnatiTulsa

3. 2-teams at +173.41
Must WinOpponentOdds
Texas A&MAuburn+173.41
Central Mich.Ball St.

4. 3-teams at +124.20 CANCELLED!
Must WinOpponentOdds
KentuckyS. Carolina
Buffalo (BU was en route to Ohio)Ohio+124.20
Iowa St.West Va.

5. 3-teams at +153.92
Must WinOpponentOdds
ToledoN. Illinois
San Diego St.Colorado St.+153.92
NC St.Georgia Tech

6. College 10-point Teaser at -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
TCUOklahoma St.+11
NebraskaPurdue+11
MemphisTulane+11.5

7. College 10-point Teaser at -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
Fla. AtlanticGa. Southern+12.5
San Jose St.Hawaii+11
OklahomaBaylor-11.5

8. College 10-point Teaser at -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
NevadaFresno St.+3.5
Oregon St.Utah+21.5
USCWashington St.-2.5

9. NFL 10-point Teaser at -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
MinnesotaJacksonvillePk
MiamiCincinnati-1.5
SeattleN.Y. Giants-0.5

November 19, 2020

PiRate Picks for November 19-23, 2020

Another Winning Week But Disappointment At The End

The PiRate Rating selections for last week came with a caveat that we were not as confident about them in the bigger picture compared to the week before when we had a bonanza profitable week. And, with just the Monday Night game to go, we had already guaranteed ourselves another profitable weekend. Monday Night Football left one leg of a parlay alive. New Orleans and Cleveland had already won to set up a potential +162.57 win if the Ravens took care of New England. Alas, Baltimore laid a major egg, and the Patriots pulled the upset that looked everything like the wrong team was favored. So, instead of a major cleaning of the books, we had to settle with a 22.1% profit on our imaginary investments for the week.

If this is your first time, or you come here every week and see this message, make note that the PiRates NEVER wager real money on these, or any other, selections. We are math nerds that know how to pinch our pennies. This is just for fun and all wagers are pretend only. If you feel compelled to donate a large sum of money to the very wealthy sportsbooks, please reconsider and instead send a bit to our favorite charity–The Old PiRates on Rickety Ships Taking On Water Fund.

Because that nasty little virus has wiped out a bunch of our picks the last few weeks, we limited using the same teams in multiple strategies this week, even though three or four games appeared in every possible wagering situation that we like.

Enjoy–You will enjoy much more if you don’t wager these selections.

Date:Nov. 19-23
1. College 6-point Teaser -110
SelectionOpponentOdds
TulsaTulane-1/2
ArkansasLSU+8 1/2

2. College 6-point Teaser -110
SelectionOpponentOdds
Appy St.Coastal Car.+11 1/2
Arkansas St.Texas St.Pk

3. College 6 1/2 -point Teaser -120
SelectionOpponentOdds
Air ForceNew Mexico-1/2
UTSASouthern Miss.-2 1/2

4. College 7-point Teaser -130
SelectionOpponentOdds
OregonUCLA-6 1/2
NC St.Liberty+3 1/2

5. College 10-point Teaser -110
Selection *CANCELLED*OpponentOdds
PurdueMinnesota+7 1/2
MarylandMich. St.+4 1/2
NebraskaIllinois-5

6. College 10-point Teaser -110
SelectionOpponentOdds
RiceNorth Texas+9
Oregon St.California+13 1/2
AlabamaKentucky-20

7. College 10-point Teaser -110 CANCELLED
SelectionOpponentOdds
San Jose St.Fresno St.+7 1/2
AuburnTennessee-1
WashingtonArizona-1 1/2

8. College Money Line Parlay +168.15
Must WinOpponentOdds
OklahomaOklahoma St.+168.15
RiceNorth Texas

9. College Money Line Parlay +139.47
Must WinOpponentOdds
MissouriS. Carolina+139.47
USCUtah

10. College Money Line +152
Must WinOpponentOdds
Oregon St.California+152

11. College Money Line +147
Must WinOpponentOdds
PittsburghVa. Tech+147

12. NFL 6 1/2 point Teaser -120
SelectionOpponentOdds
Kansas CityLas Vegas-1/2
LA RamsTampa Bay+10 1/2

13. NFL 7-point Teaser -130
SelectionOpponentOdds
LA ChargersN.Y. Jets+8 1/2
Green BayIndianapolis-1/2

14. NFL 10-point Teaser -110
SelectionOpponentOdds
AtlantaNew Orleans+15
PittsburghJacksonvillePk
CincinnatiWashington+11 1/2

15. NFL 10-point Teaser -110
TeamTeamTotal
DetroitCarolinaO 39
PhiladelphiaClevelandO 37
BaltimoreTennesseeO 39

16. NFL 10-point Teaser -110
TeamTeamTotal
PittsburghJacksonvilleO 36 1/2
MiamiDenverO 35
LA RamsTampa BayO 38 1/2

November 12, 2020

PiRate Picks for November 12-16, 2020

A Week In The Penthouse Doesn’t Mean To Open The Vault

Last week, when we posted the weekly selections, we hinted that we really liked a lot of picks that seemed to tilt the numbers slightly in our favor, or to be more precise, to overcome the percentage vigorish that the selections had on the other side.

We were correct much more often than incorrect last week, and it resulted in a little fake bonanza in imaginary Vegas Book. We hit on three Money Line Parlays at better than +100 odds, and we hit on three of five 10-point teasers to parlay the selections into a better than 30% profit for the week.

There were other selections that became void after last week’s post was published, as games were called off late due to Covid. Eight games are already off the boards this week as this post publishes, and there is a chance that one or more of this week’s choices will be taken off the board as well. We tried to anticipate which games have the greater chances of being cancelled and left them off this week’s consideration list.

Additionally, we eliminated some teams from consideration due to prior Covid concerns that have left these teams with too many weeks off and too many recovering key players. We only really went with one selection where a college team has played just one game so far–Wisconsin.

Our sentiment is that this week is considerably more difficult to isolate favorable selections. We rely more on the numbers than the actual teams in most of our selections, as Nevada rarely misses on lines this late in the season, even in this dysfunctional 2020 season.

What we have favored this week are the lines that help us move through the highest percentage of key numbers, both in spreads and totals for the teasers. We also used our in-house formula for maximizing money line parlay spreads with our own personal ratings and predicted win percentages.

As usual, please read our disclosure: The PiRates NEVER wager real money on these selections. This is strictly a fun exercise with numbers performed by a bunch of numbers’ nerds that just happened to have all played football, but on the other hand, we have all had concussions from playing football, and sometimes we appear to be a bit punch drunk. So, DON’T blow your Christmas Fund on selections you will see below.

That goes for you, Ms. Buckeye in Florida, who didn’t listen to the warning after reading it a zillion times and went and bet big on the Gators at +150 to beat Georgia outright last week. You won last week, so you are very likely to lose this week if you choose one selection from our list.

Date:Nov. 12-16
College 10-point Teasers @-110

1. SelectionOpponentLine
PurdueNorthwestern+12 1/2
Ole MissS. Carolina-1
OregonWash. St.Pk

2. Selection (CANCELLED)OpponentLine
Coastal Car.Troy– 1/2
Fresno St.Utah St.Pk
Ga. SouthernTexas St.Pk

College Money Line Parlays

3. Must WinOpponentOdds
WisconsinMichigan+118.99
RutgersIllinois

4. Must WinOpponentOdds
W. VirginiaTCU
Ga. SouthernTroy+178.70
Ole MissS. Carolina

5. Must Win CANCELLEDOpponentOdds
UtahUCLA+132.03
IndianaMichigan St.

6. Must Win CANCELLEDOpponentOdds
Arizona St.California+106.90
OregonWash. St.

NFL 10-point Teasers @ -110

7. TeamTeamTotal
TennesseeIndianapolisO38 1/2
ClevelandHoustonO39
New OrleansSan FranciscoO39

8. TeamTeamTotal
DetroitWashingtonO 36 1/2
N.Y. GiantsPhiladelphiaO 34 1/2
MiamiLA ChargersO 38 1/2

NFL Money Line Parlays

9. Must WinOpponentOdds
Tampa BayCarolina+155.57
MiamiLA Chargers

10. Must WinOpponentOdds
PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants+138.24
Las VegasDenver

11. Must WinOpponentOdds
New OrleansSan Francisco
BaltimoreNew England+162.57
ClevelandHouston

October 28, 2020

PiRate Picks for October 29-November 2, 2020

Cue-Steve Sabol

This is our annual tradition to publish the fantastic poem written by NFL Films genius Steve Sabol

The Autumn Wind

The Autumn Wind is a pirate
Blustering in from sea,
With a rollicking song, he sweeps along,
Swaggering boisterously.
His face is weather beaten.
He wears a hooded sash,
With a silver hat about his head,
And a bristling black mustache.

He growls as he storms the country,
A villain big and bold.
And the trees all shake and quiver and quake,
As he robs them of their gold.

The Autumn Wind is a raider,
Pillaging just for fun.
He’ll knock you ’round and upside down,
And laugh when he’s conquered and won.

——————————————————————————–

Last week, the Autumn wind might have been a pirate, but it did the PiRates in. It laughed when it conquered and won against our picks. We suffered the second worst week in the history of this column.

For the year, we are now in the red by a small percentage, and quite truthfully, we feel a bit gun-shy this week. The NFL spreads were basically too close to our spreads, or there are too many personnel changes due to injuries and decisions to start new blood.

We are going with 11 selections this week, and 10 of them are college plays. It should be quite obvious by now that you should not even consider using the information here to place actual money on with a sports book. The PiRate Ratings make their selections for purely entertainment purposes only.

Date:10/29-11/2

College Straight Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
1. Kansas StWest Va.+4
2. Michigan St.Michigan+24.5
3. Georgia St.Coastal Carolina+3
4. Ole MissVanderbilt-16
5. N. CarolinaVirginia+6.5

10-point Teasers (3-game parlays at -110)
SelectionOpponentLine
6. WyomingHawaii+11
GeorgiaKentucky-5
Wake ForestSyracuse-1

SelectionOpponentLine
7. TempleTulane+14
Central Fla.Houston+7.5
Notre DameGa. Tech-9.5

SelectionOpponentLine
8. Ole MissVanderbilt-6.5
Texas A&MArkansas-2
AlabamaMiss. St.-20.5

Money Line Parlays
Must WinOpponentOdds
9. CincinnatiMemphis+131.99
Okla. St.Texas

Must WinOpponentOdds
10. Boise St.Air Force+153.96
DukeCharlotte
San Jose St.New Mexico
San Diego St.Utah St.

NFL Straight Wager
SelectionOpponentLine
11. CarolinaAtlanta-2

October 22, 2020

PiRate Picks for October 22-26, 2020

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:55 am

Go Big or Go Home But Make Sure You Don’t Bet Your Mortgage!

Every week, we make sure any newcomers to this site understand that our selections on this weekly edition are made strictly for entertainment purposes only. We highly urge you never to wager real money on the picks you see published at this site. We never wager real money; all of our selections are made with our infinite imaginary bankroll.

That said, we know that there are a number of you reading this that will ignore the warning. That is your mistake, so if you have to cash in a Treasury Bond to cover your losses, don’t get mad at us.

Before we get into this week’s selections, let’s quickly review what happened last week. It wasn’t good. A lot of the profits we had accumulated were returned to the imaginary sports book in the imaginary Nevada. We still show a small imaginary profit for the year, but it is infinitesimal. Additionally, the selections that won were different styles of exotic wagers, while what had been most successful earlier in the year, the straight wagers, didn’t perform well.

This week, we are issuing a season high 18 selections. One might postulate that we are really confident this week and decided to issue a lot of selections. Actually, the reverse is true. We are considerably less confident with this week’s selections. We found several “almost good” possibilities and could not narrow the list down to “best” possibilities, as our internal numbers and the folks in Nevada agreed too often. We hoped to be able to play a bunch of Underdogs in the conferences beginning play, but it is like somebody set the odds based on our ratings. Multiple games with teams playing their openers saw the official line and our ratings agree within one point. Some of these lines originated several points off of our ratings, but by Monday night, they had moved to where our ratings had them. In a way, we love this, as it gives us a shot in the arm to know that our ratings are similar to what the Sharps believe. We do know that a handful of Sharps do follow this site, and we are thankful to some really nice people in the Las Vegas-Henderson area that have reached out to us. So, when does the invitation come to spend a week there in the middle of Winter?

Now, it’s time for this week’s selections. We do not really like playing a lot of favorites, but the underdog numbers just didn’t offer a lot of value. You will see that we are playing some games multiple times in different types of wagers. This leads to feast or famine, and in the past, this has offered us a tiny percentage increase in weeks where one or two games met our internal requirements for straight wager, totals, teasers, and/or money line parlays.

Enjoy, but keep your real money in your bank accounts, unless you already planned to wager on the selections you see here.

Date:10/22-10/26
College Straight Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
1. Penn St.Indiana-5.5
2. NavyHouston+14
3. Boston Col.Ga. Tech-3
4. MinnesotaMichigan+3
5. CincinnatiSMU+3
6. Air ForceSan Jose St.-7


7. College 6-point Teaser @ -110
SelectionOpponentLine
OklahomaTCU-0.5
BaylorTexas+15


8. College 6-point Teaser @ -110
SelectionOpponentLine
Penn St.IndianaE
KentuckyMissouri+0.5


9. College 7-point Teaser @ +140
SelectionOpponentLine
AuburnOle Miss+3.5
Okla. St.Iowa St.+3.5
Air ForceS.J. St.E


10. College Money Line Parlay @ +160.60
Must WinOpponentOdds
TulsaFla. Atlantic
OklahomaTCU+160.60
Air ForceS.J. St.


11. College Money Line Parlay @ +169.19
Must WinOpponentOdds
LibertySou. Miss.
Penn St.Indiana+169.19
LSUS. Carolina


NFL Straight Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
12. PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants-4
13. AtlantaDetroit-1
14. DenverKansas City+10


15. NFL 10-point Teaser @ -110
TeamTeamTotal
PhiladelphiaN.Y. GiantsO35
BuffaloN.Y. JetsO35
WashingtonDallasO35


16. NFL 10-point Teaser @ -110
TeamTeamTotal
DenverKansas CityO36
New EnglandSan FranciscoO33.5
LA RamsChicagoO35


17. NFL Money Line Parlay @ +190.94
Must WinOpponentOdds
PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants
DallasWashington+190.94


18. NFL Money Line Parlay @ +180.33
Must WinOpponentOdds
Green BayHouston
New EnglandSan Francisco+180.33

October 7, 2020

PiRate Picks for October 8-11, 2020

Of Course We See The Obvious!

There is no need to send us any more comments from our sister site informing us about how our straight selections against the spread are tearing it up this year. Remember this: we do not wager real money on these selections. This is just for fun, and coming out with only straight selections against the spread would not be very fun for us or for you the reader. We hope you leave this site with a smile on your face. It can be a happy smile because you enjoyed what we put out. It can be a laugh at our expense as you leave knowing how superior your selection ability is to ours. As long as it’s a smile, we are happy along with you.

That said, we are the first to be totally perplexed as to how we accidentally picked a ton of winners so far against the spread, while our favorite exotic picks have been in the toilet.

All those winning straight selections has raked in no money. All the losing parlays has lost us no money. We don’t wager. You should follow this advice and do the same, or at least use some other advice to make real selections.

For what it is worth, our straight college selections this year are 14-5, and our straight NFL selections are 3-0. The fun picks are 8-17. Yet, we have no more confidence in our straight selections this week than we are in our exotic picks.

Here are the selections we selected this week.

College Straight Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
1. LouisvilleGa. Tech-4
2. Kansas St.TCU+9
3. Boston CollPitt+6.5
4. Western KyMarshall+7

College Money Lines
Must WinOpponentOdds
5.Kansas St.TCU+295

6. 3-Team Parlay @ +141
Must WinOpponentOdds
ClemsonMiami (Fla.)
CharlotteNorth Texas+141
South CarolinaVanderbilt

7. 3-Team Parlay @ +166.60
Must WinOpponentOdds
HoustonTulane
North CarolinaVa. Tech+166.60
GeorgiaTennessee

8. 3-Team 7-point Teaser Parlay@ +125 Odds
SelectionOpponentLine
VirginiaNC St.-1.5
Florida Intl.Middle Tenn.+3.5
CharlotteNorth Texas+4

NFL Straight Wager
SelectionOpponentLine
9. WashingtonLA Rams+7.5

10. NFL 3-Team 10-point Teaser Parlay @ -110
TeamTeamTotal
Tampa BayChicagoOver 34
PhiladelphiaPittsburghOver 34
IndianapolisClevelandOver 36

11. NFL Money Line Parlay @ +133.53
Must WinOpponentOdds
Tampa BayChicago
San FranciscoMiami+133.53
DallasN.Y. Giants

12. NFL Money Line Parlay @ -102.59
Must WinOpponentOdds
PittsburghPhiladelphia
SeattleMinnesota-102.59
Kansas CityLas Vegas

October 1, 2020

PiRate Picks for October 1-4, 2020

The Odds Must Be Crazy? Uh, No, We’re The Crazies!

Welcome back to the most popular part of the PiRate Ratings during football season–our wacky, untrustworthy, frequently off base picks against the spread, using our invented, imaginary bank account.

After having a big winner two weeks ago, we slightly stubbed our toes last week, and after four weeks of football, we now show an imaginary fake sliver of profit.

With October, the Autumn winds begin to ramp up, and why not just throw no caution to those winds? If we pick 15 winners out of 15 selections, or lose all 15 selections, our real bank accounts stay the same. Do you get the picture? We provide this weekly feature for your entertainment purposes only. However, no matter how frequently we warn you not to play our selections for real and to rely on more reliable information, some of you tend to overlook the weekly warning.

We are nutty buckaroos and lasses on this PiRate ship! We’ve been taking on water for decades. Please, very kind people: Don’t be like the following long-time subscriber to this site, who sent us this message this week:

His name is Fred, and he lives in Minnesnowta. Here is what Fred sent:

Hello PiRates. Two weeks ago, I didn’t listen to your warning and played 5 of your selections because they looked like good choices. They went 5-0, and I made $50 betting $10 on each game. Last week, I figured you were onto something. I played just 3 of your picks, but I upped the wagers to $50 each. I lost all 3 selections and was out $165. Shame on me for not reading your warning, but I promise not to do so again, at least until next Thursday when your next selections come out.

Fred, Buddy! You’ve been following these ratings since 2011. In 9 years, you must have seen our warning more than 100 times. If you want to toss out $165 from your wallet, why not buy your loved ones some nice stocking caps for the Minnesnowta winter that is about ready to strike you “up der.” Our selection formula is as wacky as Axel and his Dog!

Here’s one of our favorite Axel statements: “What’s the best thing to puuuuuuut on a hot dog?

Answer: The best thing to puuuuuuut on a hot dog is your teeth!

To the few readers that have made it this far, here are our selections for the week. Fred, don’t look!

Date:10/1-10/4
College Straight Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
1. S. CarolinaFlorida+18
2. Kansas St.TTU-2.5
3. Air ForceNavy+7
4. TulsaUCF+21.5
5. VirginiaClemson+28


6. College 6-point Teaser Parlay @ -110
SelectionOpponentLine
BaylorWest Va.+3.5
CharlotteFla. Atlantic+12.5


7. College 10-point Teaser Parlay @ -110
SelectionOpponentLine
East CarolinaGeorgia St.+11
Boston CollgeNorth Carolina+24
Southern MissN. Texas+11.5


NFL Straight Wager
SelectionOpponentLine
8. DenverN.Y. Jets+2


9. NFL 6-point Teaser Parlay @ -110
SelectionOpponentLine
New OrleansDetroit+10
Tampa BayLA Chargers-1


10. NFL 6-point Teaser Parlay @ -110
SelectionOpponentLine
San FranciscoN. Y.Giants-1
ChicagoIndianapolis+8.5


11. NFL Money Line Parlay @ +131.53
Must WinOpponentOdds
Tampa BayLA Chargers
San FranciscoN.Y. Gianta+131.53
Green BayAtlanta


12. NFL Money Line Parlay @ +517.10
Must WinOpponentOdds
CarolinaArizona
Las VegasBuffalo+517.10

That upset special above returns better than 5-1 odds, and we would never issue this if it were serious. We can afford to take liberal gambles on these picks, because there is no risk when you wager $0 real and only wager in $100 imaginary amounts.

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