The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 1, 2014

PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs–Semifinals

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:11 am

1. This is a 12-team tournament, using bowls for the first two rounds to get from 12 to 8 to 4.

 

2. The champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 received automatic bids.

 

3. The champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sunbelt received automatic bids if any finished in the top 16 of the RPI rankings, which replaced the BCS and has mathematical values that multiple mathematicians can determine and cannot be finagled in any way by football politicians in a back room.  For this experiment, we used an average of the top college ratings, including the PiRate Ratings.

 

4. We then selected the two to seven highest RPI-ranked teams (to fill the bracket at 12 total) not automatically selected and gave them berths in the tournament.

 

5. We then seeded the teams by RPI ranking from 1-12.  The top 4 teams received a first round bye as a reward for being one of the top four, while seeds 5-12 faced off in the first round.

 

This year, there were six automatic qualifiers and six at-large selections.  Florida St., Baylor, Michigan St., Auburn, and Stanford satisfy the #2 criteria above, whereas Central Florida satisfies #3.  The six at-large teams are: Alabama, Missouri, Ohio St., South Carolina, Oregon, and Oklahoma.

 

If this were next year, there would be a gross miscarriage of justice to the teams that are not number four.  Florida St., Auburn, and Alabama would definitely be three of the teams chosen.  Baylor, Michigan St., Stanford, Ohio St., Missouri, South Carolina, and Oregon would all have reason to be that fourth team, and only one of this seven would be chosen.  Now, the first team out is Clemson, not quite as deserving as any of the seven above, all of whom now make the 12-team tournament.

 

For this computer simulation, games were simulated on a simulator located on a major university campus.

 

Here are the teams, seeded 1-12

 

1. Florida St.

2. Auburn

3. Alabama

4. Stanford

5. Michigan St.

6. Missouri

7. Ohio St.

8. South Carolina

9. Baylor

10. Oregon

11. Oklahoma

12. Central Florida

 

The top four seeds received first round byes, while teams 5-12 played at neutral site bowls in round one.

 

In the first round, which can be viewed at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2013/12/20/1555/

 

South Carolina, Oregon, Missouri, and Michigan St. advanced to the quarterfinal round.

 

In the quarterfinal round, which can be viewed at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2013/12/28/2013-14-ncaa-football-computer-simulation-playoffs-quarterfinals/

 

South Carolina upset Florida St., Stanford defeated Michigan St., Oregon upset Auburn, and Missouri upset Alabama to make this the first time in the PiRate Simulation history that a top-3 seed did not make the semifinal round.

 

Here are your Final Four Match-ups that were simulated yesterday:

 

#4 Stanford vs. #8 South Carolina

#6 Missouri vs. #10 Oregon

 

Game 1: #4 Stanford vs. #8 South Carolina

 

Winner: Stanford 17  South Carolina 13

 

Stan

Team

S Car

 

 

 

16

FD

14

 

 

 

41-159

Rushing

43-112

 

 

 

167

Passing

121

 

 

 

15-27-1

Passes

13-23-2

 

 

 

68

Play

66

 

 

 

326

Yards

233

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Stan

0

3

7

7

17

S Car

7

3

0

3

13

 

 

Game 2: #6 Missouri vs. #10 Oregon

 

Winner: Oregon 48  Missouri 35

 

Mo

Team

Ore

 

 

 

21

FD

24

 

 

 

42-162

Rushing

52-308

 

 

 

257

Passing

244

 

 

 

19-32-2

Passes

21-32-0

 

 

 

74

Play

82

 

 

 

419

Yards

552

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Mo

14

7

14

0

35

Ore

10

10

14

14

48

 

Simper Bowl VII is now set. 

 

#4 Stanford vs. #10 Oregon

 

The Ducks will be trying to threepeat as Simper Bowl Champions.

 

Here are the results of the first six Simper Bowls

 

Simper Bowl I—January 2008: USC 38  Oklahoma 24

Simper Bowl II—January 2009: USC 27  Florida 23

Simper Bowl III—January 2010: Boise St. 39  TCU 37

Simper Bowl IV—January 2011: Ohio St. 27  Wisconsin 21

Simper Bowl V—January 2012: Oregon 38  Wisconsin 30

Simper Bowl VI—January 2013: Oregon 34  Alabama 24

December 1, 2013

PiRate Ratings: College Football–December 6-7, 2013

The Big Answer About The PiRate Ratings

“How can you still have Alabama at Number Two, you xoxoxo,?” says an irate Auburn fan.

 

We get this question quite a bit over the years.  Many times in the past as well as this past weekend, an Auburn beat an Alabama, yet they did not pass them in our ratings.

 

The answer to this question is simple.  We do not rank teams based on what they have done so far this season, or what is referred to as retrodictive rankings.  If we had these type of rankings, then surely the Auburns of 2013 and past years would be ahead of the Alabamas.

 

Our ratings are predictive.  We rate teams and do not rank them.  Our ratings try to predict what the next week of games will be, thus being called predictive ratings.

 

What our ratings say is that if Alabama and Auburn somehow make it to the NCAA Championship Game, we will have Alabama favored to win.

 

And, to that Auburn fan from Montgomery, here is something else for you to chew on.  It is not like we choose to place the ratings where they go.  Our system is a multiple statistic system that is about 99% mechanical and can be reproduced by anybody that has been taught the method.  The only semi-subjective part of our ratings comes in the home-field advantage, because we choose to believe that home-field advantage changes for every game.  In other words, Oklahoma receives considerably less home-field advantage this week hosting Oklahoma St. than they did when they hosted UL-Monroe the first of the season.

 

The BCS is Still BS, and the New Playoff Will Be as Well

We strongly oppose the BCS bowl system, realizing that it is more political than the party conventions every four years.

 

We suspect the four-team playoff commencing next year will also be more like a meeting of the Illinois General Assembly.

 

Who would be in the four team playoff if it began this season?  Florida St. and Ohio St. would be near locks as of now, while you figure that Alabama would still get in as well as the winner of the Missouri-Auburn game.  What about Oklahoma St.?  What more would a Northern Illinois have to do to smell a selection?

 

Why leave this choice in the hands of football politicians?  This is not the NCAA Basketball Tournament, where the number 69 team gets shafted.  The teams that can win the dance are always selected or earn automatic berths.

 

If college football ever wanted to “get it right,” they would adopt a model similar to the basketball tournament.  Until then, it will be perceived as a fraud by a substantial part of the fans.

 

Here is how the PiRates would make it right:

 

1. Go to a 12-team tournament, using bowls for the first two rounds to get from 12 to 8 to 4.

 

2. Give the champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 automatic bids.

 

3. Give the champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sunbelt automatic bids if any finish in the top 16 of the RPI rankings, which will replace the BCS and have mathematical values that multiple mathematicians can determine and cannot be finagled in any way by football politicians in a back room.

 

4. Select the two to seven highest RPI-ranked teams (to fill the bracket at 12 total) not automatically selected and give them berths in the tournament.

 

5. Seed the teams by RPI ranking from 1-12.  The top 4 teams would receive a first round bye as a reward for being one of the top four, while seeds 5-12 would face off in the first round.

 

Let’s look at what could be this year.  First, we must make a couple assumptions, but it will be easy for you the reader to adjust this if different teams win next week.

 

In our world, among the conference championship games, Florida St. beats Duke, Ohio St. beats Michigan St., Arizona St. beats Stanford, and Auburn beats Missouri.  These are not our predictions; they are just being used to make the idea easier to understand.

 

Here are the 12 teams that we would show qualifying for the Tournament.

1. AAC—Central Florida received an automatic bid by finishing at number 16.

2. ACC—Florida St. gets an automatic bid

3. Big 12—Oklahoma St. gets an automatic bid

4. Big Ten—Ohio St. gets an automatic bid

5. CUSA—Marshall does not get a bid by failing to crack the top 16

6. MAC—Northern Illinois gets an automatic bid by making the top 16

7. MWC—Fresno St. narrowly misses out and does not make the tournament

8. Pac-12—Arizona St. gets an automatic bid

9. SEC—Auburn gets an automatic bid

10. SBC—UL-Lafayette does not make the tournament

 

This means five at-large teams will be selected.  Assuming the conference championship games play out as suggested above, here are the five at-large teams.

Alabama

South Carolina

Baylor

Missouri

Stanford

 

This is how the tournament would be seeded:

1. Florida St.

2. Ohio St.

3. Auburn

4. Alabama

5. Oklahoma St.

6. South Carolina

7. Missouri

8. Stanford

9. Baylor

10. Arizona St.

11. Northern Illinois

12. Central Florida

 

The first round games would then be:

Game 1: Oklahoma St. vs. Central Florida

Game 2: South Carolina vs. Northern Illinois

Game 3: Missouri vs. Arizona St.

Game 4: Stanford vs. Baylor

 

The second round games would then be:

Game 5: Alabama vs. Game 1 winner

Game 6: Auburn vs. Game 2 winner

Game 7: Ohio St. vs. Game 3 winner

Game 8: Florida St. vs. Game 4 winner

 

The semifinal round games would then be:

Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 8 winner

Game 10: Game 6 winner vs. Game 7 winner

 

Championship

Game 11: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

1

Florida St.

136.9

2

Alabama

134.8

3

Ohio St.

128.2

4

Oklahoma St.

127.7

5

Stanford

127.7

6

Arizona St.

127.3

7

Oregon

125.5

8

Baylor

125.2

9

Missouri

125.2

10

L S U

123.2

11

Washington

122.2

12

Auburn

122.2

13

Michigan St.

121.6

14

U C L A

121.3

15

Wisconsin

121.0

16

South Carolina

120.8

17

Clemson

120.6

18

Texas A&M

119.1

19

Ole Miss

117.4

20

Texas

117.1

21

Oklahoma

117.0

22

Georgia

117.0

23

U S C

116.6

24

Arizona

114.1

25

Notre Dame

113.9

26

Oregon St.

113.5

27

Louisville

113.2

28

Kansas St.

112.9

29

Michigan

112.1

30

B Y U

111.6

31

Georgia Tech

111.0

32

Miami

110.5

33

Iowa

109.5

34

North Carolina

108.8

35

Nebraska

108.7

36

Cincinnati

108.5

37

Bowling Green

108.1

38

Utah

108.1

39

Vanderbilt

107.9

40

Mississippi St.

107.9

41

Duke

107.4

42

Penn St.

107.4

43

Florida

107.4

44

T C U

107.3

45

Minnesota

106.8

46

Virginia Tech

106.7

47

Northwestern

106.7

48

Texas Tech

106.3

49

East Carolina

105.9

50

Utah St.

105.8

51

Washington St.

105.8

52

Central Florida

105.7

53

Fresno St.

105.6

54

Northern Illinois

105.1

55

Houston

104.6

56

Marshall

104.2

57

Boise St.

103.9

58

Tennessee

102.8

59

Ball St.

101.7

60

Boston College

101.5

61

Indiana

101.5

62

Pittsburgh

100.5

63

West Virginia

99.7

64

Buffalo

99.7

65

North Texas

99.5

66

Syracuse

99.0

67

Colorado St.

98.9

68

Arkansas

98.6

69

Wake Forest

98.5

70

Maryland

98.0

71

Toledo

98.0

72

San Jose St.

98.0

73

Navy

97.1

74

Illinois

96.8

75

Rice

96.2

76

Kentucky

95.7

77

Iowa St.

95.5

78

S M U

93.5

79

Florida Atlantic

93.4

80

U T S A

93.2

81

San Diego St.

92.7

82

Western Kentucky

92.2

83

Colorado

92.1

84

Louisiana–Lafayette

92.1

85

U N L V

91.2

86

Kansas

90.9

87

Rutgers

90.7

88

Tulane

90.5

89

Arkansas St.

90.5

90

Temple

90.2

91

Middle Tennessee

89.9

92

Memphis

89.8

93

Virginia

89.6

94

Kent St.

89.6

95

North Carolina St.

89.2

96

California

88.2

97

South Alabama

88.0

98

South Florida

87.5

99

Nevada

87.0

100

Purdue

86.5

101

Connecticut

86.3

102

Ohio

86.0

103

Central Michigan

85.9

104

Louisiana–Monroe

85.3

105

Wyoming

84.9

106

Akron

84.5

107

Tulsa

84.1

108

Troy

83.6

109

Hawaii

83.5

110

Army

81.8

111

New Mexico

79.5

112

Texas St.

79.1

113

Louisiana Tech

78.0

114

Western Michigan

76.8

115

U A B

75.3

116

Air Force

74.4

117

U T E P

74.0

118

New Mexico St.

70.5

119

Massachusetts

68.7

120

Southern Miss.

68.0

121

Georgia St.

67.7

122

Miami (O)

67.5

123

Idaho

67.4

124

Eastern Michigan

67.2

125

Florida Int’l

66.4

 

PiRate Mean

1

Florida St.

140.4

2

Alabama

131.1

3

Ohio St.

127.4

4

Arizona St.

126.2

5

Missouri

123.7

6

Michigan St.

122.0

7

Wisconsin

121.8

8

Clemson

121.4

9

Oregon

121.4

10

L S U

121.4

11

Auburn

121.4

12

Stanford

121.1

13

Oklahoma St.

120.0

14

South Carolina

118.9

15

Baylor

118.3

16

Washington

118.0

17

U C L A

117.2

18

Texas A&M

116.6

19

Georgia

115.2

20

Ole Miss

114.1

21

U S C

113.1

22

Michigan

112.8

23

Louisville

112.5

24

Oklahoma

111.9

25

Notre Dame

111.7

26

Miami

111.3

27

Arizona

110.8

28

North Carolina

110.4

29

Georgia Tech

110.3

30

B Y U

110.2

31

Houston

110.1

32

Cincinnati

109.9

33

Bowling Green

109.6

34

Texas

109.4

35

Duke

109.1

36

Iowa

109.0

37

Central Florida

108.5

38

East Carolina

108.3

39

Penn St.

108.1

40

Marshall

107.7

41

Northern Illinois

107.7

42

Virginia Tech

107.5

43

Nebraska

107.2

44

Minnesota

107.1

45

Oregon St.

106.5

46

Vanderbilt

106.4

47

Kansas St.

106.1

48

Mississippi St.

105.9

49

Utah

105.7

50

Fresno St.

105.5

51

Ball St.

105.3

52

Florida

105.1

53

Washington St.

105.0

54

Utah St.

104.6

55

Northwestern

104.5

56

Indiana

102.8

57

Boston College

102.2

58

Buffalo

102.0

59

North Texas

101.9

60

T C U

101.7

61

Tennessee

101.6

62

Boise St.

101.5

63

Maryland

101.1

64

Wake Forest

101.0

65

Texas Tech

100.8

66

Arkansas

100.5

67

Pittsburgh

100.1

68

Toledo

100.1

69

Syracuse

99.4

70

Colorado St.

99.0

71

Rice

98.7

72

Navy

98.5

73

Illinois

98.1

74

San Jose St.

96.2

75

U T S A

95.5

76

S M U

94.9

77

Memphis

94.1

78

Florida Atlantic

94.1

79

Middle Tennessee

94.1

80

Kentucky

94.1

81

Western Kentucky

94.1

82

Tulane

94.0

83

Louisiana–Lafayette

93.6

84

West Virginia

92.7

85

U N L V

92.7

86

Rutgers

92.6

87

Kent St.

92.6

88

Colorado

92.4

89

North Carolina St.

92.3

90

San Diego St.

91.8

91

Virginia

91.5

92

South Alabama

91.3

93

Temple

91.2

94

Arkansas St.

90.3

95

Ohio

89.4

96

Central Michigan

88.6

97

Nevada

88.5

98

Iowa St.

88.3

99

Akron

88.1

100

Army

86.9

101

Troy

86.6

102

Louisiana–Monroe

86.4

103

South Florida

85.8

104

Kansas

85.8

105

Wyoming

85.4

106

Purdue

84.7

107

Hawaii

84.3

108

Connecticut

84.2

109

California

84.1

110

Tulsa

84.0

111

Texas St.

83.3

112

New Mexico

82.0

113

Louisiana Tech

79.5

114

Western Michigan

79.0

115

Air Force

77.3

116

U A B

76.5

117

U T E P

76.1

118

New Mexico St.

73.3

119

Massachusetts

73.2

120

Georgia St.

72.6

121

Idaho

71.3

122

Miami (O)

69.7

123

Eastern Michigan

69.4

124

Southern Miss.

68.5

125

Florida Int’l

68.3

 

PiRate Bias

1

Florida St.

138.6

2

Alabama

135.3

3

Oklahoma St.

128.6

4

Ohio St.

128.1

5

Arizona St.

127.2

6

Stanford

126.9

7

Baylor

126.3

8

Missouri

125.4

9

Oregon

125.3

10

L S U

124.0

11

Auburn

122.5

12

Wisconsin

121.6

13

Washington

121.6

14

Clemson

121.5

15

Michigan St.

121.5

16

U C L A

120.5

17

South Carolina

120.3

18

Texas A&M

118.4

19

Georgia

117.0

20

Oklahoma

116.6

21

U S C

116.0

22

Ole Miss

116.0

23

Texas

115.8

24

Notre Dame

112.9

25

Louisville

112.8

26

Arizona

112.7

27

Kansas St.

112.0

28

Oregon St.

111.9

29

Michigan

111.5

30

B Y U

111.5

31

Georgia Tech

110.7

32

Miami

110.5

33

North Carolina

110.1

34

Iowa

109.7

35

Bowling Green

109.3

36

Cincinnati

108.6

37

Mississippi St.

108.1

38

Duke

107.8

39

Utah

107.6

40

Utah St.

107.5

41

Vanderbilt

107.5

42

Nebraska

107.3

43

Penn St.

107.2

44

T C U

107.1

45

Minnesota

106.9

46

Central Florida

106.8

47

East Carolina

106.8

48

Florida

106.8

49

Washington St.

106.7

50

Virginia Tech

106.1

51

Northern Illinois

106.1

52

Northwestern

105.9

53

Marshall

105.9

54

Houston

105.8

55

Texas Tech

105.4

56

Fresno St.

105.3

57

Boise St.

104.9

58

Ball St.

102.8

59

Tennessee

102.1

60

Boston College

101.9

61

Buffalo

101.2

62

Indiana

100.9

63

Pittsburgh

100.3

64

North Texas

100.3

65

Colorado St.

99.9

66

Syracuse

99.3

67

Maryland

99.2

68

Wake Forest

98.7

69

Toledo

98.5

70

West Virginia

98.4

71

San Jose St.

98.4

72

Arkansas

97.8

73

Navy

97.6

74

Rice

96.4

75

Illinois

96.0

76

Kentucky

95.0

77

Iowa St.

94.8

78

Florida Atlantic

94.5

79

U T S A

93.4

80

San Diego St.

93.4

81

S M U

93.1

82

Western Kentucky

92.4

83

Louisiana–Lafayette

92.3

84

U N L V

92.1

85

Colorado

91.4

86

Memphis

91.3

87

Tulane

91.2

88

Middle Tennessee

90.6

89

Arkansas St.

90.6

90

Rutgers

90.3

91

Virginia

90.3

92

Kent St.

90.3

93

Kansas

90.1

94

Temple

89.7

95

North Carolina St.

89.3

96

South Alabama

89.1

97

Nevada

87.4

98

South Florida

87.0

99

Connecticut

86.2

100

California

86.1

101

Ohio

86.0

102

Central Michigan

86.0

103

Wyoming

85.2

104

Akron

85.1

105

Louisiana–Monroe

85.0

106

Troy

84.7

107

Purdue

84.5

108

Hawaii

84.4

109

Tulsa

83.7

110

Army

83.1

111

New Mexico

79.8

112

Texas St.

79.0

113

Western Michigan

77.3

114

Louisiana Tech

76.6

115

U A B

74.7

116

Air Force

74.0

117

U T E P

73.1

118

New Mexico St.

70.0

119

Georgia St.

68.5

120

Massachusetts

68.3

121

Southern Miss.

67.2

122

Idaho

67.1

123

Florida Int’l

65.9

124

Eastern Michigan

65.7

125

Miami (O)

65.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

6-1

10-1

113.2

112.5

112.8

Cincinnati

6-1

9-2

108.5

109.9

108.6

Central Florida

7-0

10-1

105.7

108.5

106.8

Houston

5-3

8-4

104.6

110.1

105.8

S M U

4-3

5-6

93.5

94.9

93.1

Rutgers

2-5

5-6

90.7

92.6

90.3

Temple

1-7

2-10

90.2

91.2

89.7

Memphis

1-6

3-8

89.8

94.1

91.3

South Florida

2-5

2-9

87.5

85.8

87.0

Connecticut

2-5

2-9

86.3

84.2

86.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

97.0

98.4

97.2

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida St.

8-0

12-0

136.9

140.4

138.6

Clemson

7-1

10-2

120.6

121.4

121.5

Boston College

4-4

7-5

101.5

102.2

101.9

Syracuse

4-4

6-6

99.0

99.4

99.3

Wake Forest

2-6

4-8

98.5

101.0

98.7

Maryland

3-5

7-5

98.0

101.1

99.2

North Carolina St.

0-8

3-9

89.2

92.3

89.3

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Tech

5-3

7-5

111.0

110.3

110.7

Miami

5-3

9-3

110.5

111.3

110.5

North Carolina

4-4

6-6

108.8

110.4

110.1

Duke

6-2

10-2

107.4

109.1

107.8

Virginia Tech

5-3

8-4

106.7

107.5

106.1

Pittsburgh

3-5

6-6

100.5

100.1

100.3

Virginia

0-8

2-10

89.6

91.5

90.3

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.6

107.0

106.0

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oklahoma St.

7-1

10-1

127.7

120.0

128.6

Baylor

7-1

10-1

125.2

118.3

126.3

Texas

7-1

8-3

117.1

109.4

115.8

Oklahoma

6-2

9-2

117.0

111.9

116.6

Kansas St.

5-4

7-5

112.9

106.1

112.0

T C U

2-7

4-8

107.3

101.7

107.1

Texas Tech

4-5

7-5

106.3

100.8

105.4

West Virginia

2-7

4-8

99.7

92.7

98.4

Iowa St.

2-7

3-9

95.5

88.3

94.8

Kansas

1-8

3-9

90.9

85.8

90.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

110.0

103.5

109.5

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

8-0

12-0

128.2

127.4

128.1

Wisconsin

6-2

9-3

121.0

121.8

121.6

Penn St.

4-4

7-5

107.4

108.1

107.2

Indiana

3-5

5-7

101.5

102.8

100.9

Illinois

1-7

4-8

96.8

98.1

96.0

Purdue

0-8

1-11

86.5

84.7

84.5

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

8-0

11-1

121.6

122.0

121.5

Michigan

3-5

7-5

112.1

112.8

111.5

Iowa

5-3

8-4

109.5

109.0

109.7

Nebraska

5-3

8-4

108.7

107.2

107.3

Northwestern

1-7

5-7

106.7

104.5

105.9

Minnesota

4-4

8-4

106.8

107.1

106.9

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

108.9

108.8

108.4

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

East Carolina

6-2

9-3

105.9

108.3

106.8

Marshall

7-1

9-3

104.2

107.7

105.9

Florida Atlantic

4-4

6-6

93.4

94.1

94.5

Middle Tennessee

6-2

8-4

89.9

94.1

90.6

U A B

1-7

2-10

75.3

76.5

74.7

Southern Miss.

1-7

1-11

68.0

68.5

67.2

Florida Int’l

1-7

1-11

66.4

68.3

65.9

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

North Texas

6-2

8-4

99.5

101.9

100.3

Rice

7-1

9-3

96.2

98.7

96.4

U T S A

6-2

7-5

93.2

95.5

93.4

Tulane

5-3

7-5

90.5

94.0

91.2

Tulsa

2-6

3-9

84.1

84.0

83.7

Louisiana Tech

3-5

4-8

78.0

79.5

76.6

U T E P

1-7

2-10

74.0

76.1

73.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.0

89.1

87.2

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Notre Dame

 

8-4

113.9

111.7

112.9

B Y U

 

8-4

111.6

110.2

111.5

Navy

 

7-4

97.1

98.5

97.6

Army

 

3-8

81.8

86.9

83.1

New Mexico St.

 

2-10

70.5

73.3

70.0

Idaho

 

1-11

67.4

71.3

67.1

     

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

90.4

92.0

90.4

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

7-1

9-3

108.1

109.6

109.3

Buffalo

6-2

8-4

99.7

102.0

101.2

Kent St.

3-5

4-8

89.6

92.6

90.3

Ohio

4-4

7-5

86.0

89.4

86.0

Akron

4-4

5-7

84.5

88.1

85.1

Massachusetts

1-7

1-11

68.7

73.2

68.3

Miami (O)

0-8

0-12

67.5

69.7

65.4

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Northern Illinois

8-0

12-0

105.1

107.7

106.1

Ball St.

7-1

10-2

101.7

105.3

102.8

Toledo

5-3

7-5

98.0

100.1

98.5

Central Michigan

5-3

6-6

85.9

88.6

86.0

Western Michigan

1-7

1-11

76.8

79.0

77.3

Eastern Michigan

1-7

2-10

67.2

69.4

65.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.6

90.4

87.8

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Utah St.

7-1

8-4

105.8

104.6

107.5

Boise St.

6-2

8-4

103.9

101.5

104.9

Colorado St.

5-3

7-6

98.9

99.0

99.9

Wyoming

3-5

5-7

84.9

85.4

85.2

New Mexico

1-7

3-9

79.5

82.0

79.8

Air Force

0-8

2-10

74.4

77.3

74.0

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

7-1

10-1

105.6

105.5

105.3

San Jose St.

5-3

6-6

98.0

96.2

98.4

San Diego St.

6-2

7-5

92.7

91.8

93.4

U N L V

5-3

7-5

91.2

92.7

92.1

Nevada

3-5

4-8

87.0

88.5

87.4

Hawaii

0-8

1-11

83.5

84.3

84.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

92.1

92.4

92.7

 

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Stanford

7-2

10-2

127.7

121.1

126.9

Oregon

7-2

10-2

125.5

121.4

125.3

Washington

5-4

8-4

122.2

118.0

121.6

Oregon St.

4-5

6-6

113.5

106.5

111.9

Washington St.

4-5

6-6

105.8

105.0

106.7

California

0-9

1-11

88.2

84.1

86.1

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona St.

8-1

10-2

127.3

126.2

127.2

U C L A

6-3

9-3

121.3

117.2

120.5

U S C

6-3

9-4

116.6

113.1

116.0

Arizona

4-5

7-5

114.1

110.8

112.7

Utah

2-7

5-7

108.1

105.7

107.6

Colorado

1-8

4-8

92.1

92.4

91.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.5

110.1

112.8

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Missouri

7-1

11-1

125.2

123.7

125.4

South Carolina

6-2

10-2

120.8

118.9

120.3

Georgia

5-3

8-4

117.0

115.2

117.0

Vanderbilt

4-4

8-4

107.9

106.4

107.5

Florida

3-5

4-8

107.4

105.1

106.8

Tennessee

2-6

4-8

102.8

101.6

102.1

Kentucky

0-8

2-10

95.7

94.1

95.0

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

7-1

11-1

134.8

131.1

135.3

L S U

5-3

9-3

123.2

121.4

124.0

Auburn

7-1

11-1

122.2

121.4

122.5

Texas A&M

4-4

8-4

119.1

116.6

118.4

Ole Miss

3-5

7-5

117.4

114.1

116.0

Mississippi St.

3-5

6-6

107.9

105.9

108.1

Arkansas

0-8

3-9

98.6

100.5

97.8

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.3

112.6

114.0

 

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Western Kentucky

4-3

8-4

92.2

94.1

92.4

Louisiana–Lafayette

5-1

8-3

92.1

93.6

92.3

Arkansas St.

5-2

7-5

90.5

90.3

90.6

South Alabama

3-3

5-6

88.0

91.3

89.1

Louisiana–Monroe

4-3

6-6

85.3

86.4

85.0

Troy

4-3

6-6

83.6

86.6

84.7

Texas St.

2-5

6-6

79.1

83.3

79.0

Georgia St.

0-7

0-12

67.7

72.6

68.5

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

84.8

87.3

85.2

 

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Southern

 

7-4

88.1

90.4

94.8

Old Dominion

 

8-4

83.4

84.7

89.2

Appalachian St.

 

3-8

74.1

73.0

80.8

Charlotte

 

5-6

58.4

63.0

65.5

           
Not figured in regular averages to 100

76.0

77.8

82.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Cincinnati Louisville

-2.2

-0.1

-1.7

Bowling Green (n) Northern Illinois (Det.)

3.0

1.9

3.2

Oklahoma Oklahoma St.

-8.7

-6.1

-10.0

S M U Central Florida

-9.2

-10.6

-10.7

Connecticut Memphis

-0.5

-6.9

-2.1

Baylor Texas

10.6

11.4

13.0

Missouri (n) Auburn (Atlanta)

3.0

2.3

2.9

Rutgers South Florida

6.2

9.8

6.3

Arizona St. Stanford

2.6

8.1

3.3

Florida St. (n) Duke (Charlotte)

29.5

31.3

30.8

South Alabama UL-Lafayette

-2.1

-0.3

-1.2

Ohio St. (n) Michigan St. (Indpls.)

6.6

5.4

6.6

 

Bowl Projections

We are playing the contrarian this week.  Our bowl projections show us going with Missouri to beat Auburn, Bowling Green to beat Northern Illinois, Arizona St. to beat Stanford, and Michigan St. to beat Ohio St.  If you want the standard fare, you can find about 20 other sites with conventional bowl projections this week.

 

If Missouri beats Auburn and Michigan St. beats Ohio St., we believe the Tigers will narrowly edge out Alabama for the number two spot in the BCS and advance to the title game.

 

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

U N L V

vs.

Oregon St.

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Fresno St.

vs.

Washington

Famous Idaho Potato

Colorado St.

vs.

Ball St.

New Orleans

UL-Lafayette %

vs.

Tulane

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

Toledo *

vs.

Middle Tennessee

Hawai’i

San Diego St.

vs.

North Texas

Little Caesars Pizza

Northern Illinois

vs.

Syracuse *

Poinsettia

Utah St.

vs.

Washington St. *

Military Bowl

Boston College

vs.

East Carolina

Texas

Minnesota

vs.

North Carolina *

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Arizona

vs.

B Y U %

Pinstripe

Houston

vs.

Notre Dame *

Belk

Louisville

vs.

Virginia Tech

Russell Athletic

Cincinnati

vs.

Clemson

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Kansas St.

vs.

Nebraska

Armed Forces

Boise St.

vs.

Navy %

Music City

Georgia Tech

vs.

Ole Miss

Alamo

Oklahoma

vs.

Stanford

Holiday

Texas Tech

vs.

U C L A

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

Western Kentucky *

vs.

Maryland

Sun

Miami

vs.

U S C

Liberty

Mississippi St.

vs.

Marshall

Chick-fil-A

Duke

vs.

L S U

Heart Of Dallas

Rice

vs.

Pittsburgh *

Gator

Michigan

vs.

Georgia

Outback

South Carolina

vs.

Iowa

Capital One

Wisconsin

vs.

Auburn

Rose

Michigan St.

vs.

Arizona St.

Fiesta

Oklahoma St.

vs.

Central Florida

Sugar

Ohio St.

vs.

Baylor

Cotton

Texas A&M

vs.

Texas

Orange

Alabama

vs.

Oregon

BBVA Compass Bowl

Rutgers

vs.

Vanderbilt

GoDaddy.com

Arkansas St.

vs.

Bowling Green

BCS Championship

Florida St.

vs.

Missouri

 

 

 

 

* At-Large Selection

 

 

 

% Already Accepted Bid

 

 

 

 

October 21, 2013

PiRate Ratings–College Football: October 22-26, 2013

Who’s In, Who’s on the Bubble, Who’s Out

Contenders: Teams Contending for the BCS National Championship Game

 

Locks: Teams either already bowl-eligible or sure to become bowl-eligible

 

Bubble: Teams still in contention for bowl-eligibility but that must win some big games

 

Still Alive: Teams that need to pull off upsets and also win all the games in which they will be favored to become bowl-eligible.

 

American Athletic

Contenders: None

Locks: Louisville, Central Florida, Houston

Bubble: Cincinnati, Rutgers

Still Alive: SMU, South Florida

 

Louisville goes from title contender to likely participant in a minor bowl after losing to Central Florida.  UCF is now the odds-on favorite to win the automatic BCS Bowl bid, and they will probably play in the Fiesta Bowl unless either Northern Illinois or Fresno St. qualifies for a BCS bowl.

 

Houston never was in the hunt for a national title, but the Cougars now have the best shot to unseat UCF for the conference title.  An out of conference loss to BYU does not affect their chances for the automatic BCS bid.  Houston and UCF face off in Orlando on November 9.

 

Atlantic Coast

Contenders: Florida St., Miami

Locks: Clemson, Virginia Tech

Bubble: Georgia Tech, Maryland, Duke,

Still Alive: Pittsburgh, Boston College

 

Florida St. surprisingly opened up as the number two team in the first BCS poll, but the Seminoles will still need either Alabama or Oregon to lose a game to make it to Pasadena.  Oregon’s schedule will allow the Ducks to pass the Seminoles if both win out.

 

Miami needs even more help.  The Hurricanes could run the table and still miss out on the title game, as they are behind Ohio St., Missouri, and even one-loss Stanford.

 

Virginia Tech and Miami should decide the Coastal Division title winner when they square off at Sun Life Stadium on November 9.  The winner of that game could sneak in as a BCS at-large team if they lose no other game but the ACC Championship Game.  Of course, if the Coastal champ wins, Florida St. could receive an at-large bid.

 

Big 12

Contenders: Baylor, Texas Tech

Locks: Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma St.

Bubble: Kansas St.

Still Alive: West Virginia

 

For fans of schools in conferences that do not receive a lot of bowl bids, like the MAC, the Big 12 could provide an extra bowl opportunity.  We project a maximum of seven bowl eligible teams and a possibility of six if West Virginia loses one more game that they are projected to win.  If this league provides a BCS at-large bid, then seven teams will be one short and six will be two short.

 

Baylor is getting no respect at number eight in the BCS rankings, while Texas Tech is not found until number 10.  A 12-0 season for either team will still send the champion to the Fiesta Bowl, where their reward might be playing Central Florida, Houston, Northern Illinois, or Fresno St.

 

Big Ten

Contenders: Ohio St.

Locks: Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan St.

Bubble: Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern

Still Alive: Indiana

 

Ohio St. fans are screaming that the BCS rankings show favoritism to the SEC, and that their Buckeyes are just as deserving as Alabama, Florida St., or Oregon.  They believe that it is unjust because Alabama’s schedule includes a host of SEC games complimented by non-conference games against Colorado St., Georgia St., and Chattanooga.  If the SEC teams Alabama defeats are not considered tough wins because they are SEC wins, how does Alabama’s schedule trump Ohio St.’s schedule?  OSU plays the Big Ten schedule plus Buffalo, San Diego St., and California.  Buffalo and SDSU could both end up in bowls.

 

We may or may not agree with this premise, but we do agree that the BCS is terribly flawed, and the new 4-team playoff is just as much flawed.

 

It is our opinion that the participants in a playoff should not be selected but earned through won-loss record and tiebreakers that everybody can figure out by looking at the won-loss records and tiebreakers.

 

We published just how such a playoff should be conducted so that no team would have to be “chosen” to participate.  We shall re-publish that treatise later this season.

 

Conference USA

Contenders: None

Locks: East Carolina, Rice, Tulane, Marshall

Bubble: North Texas, Middle Tennessee

Still Alive: Tulsa

 

This is still a very interesting race, even though the winner has the Liberty Bowl for its reward.

 

East Carolina and Marshall close out the regular season on Friday, November 29, in Huntington, with the winner almost assured of winning the division title.

 

In the West, there is a chance that North Texas, Rice, and Tulane could end up in a three-way tie.  We favor North Texas to emerge as the division titlist to face Marshall for the conference championship.

 

Independents

Contenders: None

Locks: Notre Dame, BYU

Bubble: Navy

Still Alive: Army

 

Notre Dame is still contending for a BCS at-large bid, but the Irish must win out and hope for some others to come back to the pack.  A win at Stanford could do the trick, but we believe it will not happen.

 

BYU might deserve a BCS at-large bid if the Cougars win out to finish 10-2, but we do not believe the human polls will give them enough respect.

 

Navy and Army could face off in December with both teams needing one more win to become bowl-eligible.  Army has now lost 11 consecutive games in this series, with last year being the most emotional of the bunch.

 

Mid-American

Contenders: None

Locks: Northern Illinois, Ball St.

Bubble: Bowling Green, Ohio, Buffalo, Toledo

Still Alive: Central Michigan

 

Northern Illinois still finds itself on the outside looking in for a BCS Bowl bid.  The Huskies are one spot behind Fresno St., and two spots outside of the requirement to finish in the top 16 and also finish ahead of another automatic qualifier, which Central Florida currently sits at number 23.

 

Ball St. is more than talented enough to end any chance NIU has of getting back to a big bowl.  If NIU should knock off Ball St. on Wednesday, November 13, in DeKalb, the Huskies still must defeat Bowling Green, Buffalo, or Ohio in the MAC Championship Game.

 

This conference will go six deep in bowl-eligibility, but only three spots are guaranteed bowls.  As it looks today, we believe two more teams will receive at-large bowl invitations, while one deserving team will be team number 71.

 

Mountain West

Contenders: None

Locks: Fresno St., Boise St.

Bubble: Utah St., UNLV

Still Alive: San Jose St., Colorado St., Wyoming, San Diego St., Nevada

 

Fresno St. has about a 95% chance of earning a trip to the Fiesta Bowl if the Bulldogs win out.  The Bulldogs are number 17 in the BCS rankings, and they only need one team in the 12-16 range to lose or a team in the 5-11 range to lose twice.  The AAC champion has virtually no chance of surpassing a 12-0 Fresno team.

 

Boise St. is the major obstacle in Fresno’s way.  The Broncos lost a one-point heartbreaker at Fresno earlier this year, and in a rematch in the MWC Championship Game, Boise St. might be the favorite in Las Vegas.

 

The rest of the league will see a great struggle between five or six teams trying to eek out six wins.  Utah St., Wyoming, and UNLV need two more wins.  Colorado St., San Diego St., San Jose St., and Nevada need three more wins.  Cannibalism inside the league will send two or three to sub .500 records.  Six teams should qualify with chances for a seventh team to squeeze in at 6-6.  Hawaii will not get the required seven wins, so the Hawaii Bowl will go to another MWC team.

 

Pac-12

Contenders: Oregon, Stanford

Locks: Oregon St., Arizona St., UCLA

Bubble: Washington, Arizona, USC, Utah

Still Alive: Washington St.

 

Oregon will move to number two in the BCS rankings if they win out.  That will include victories over UCLA, Stanford, Arizona, Oregon St., and the South Division champion.

 

Stanford is the only one loss team that currently still resides in the National Champion contender list.  The Cardinal would have to win out, which would include beating Oregon, and then need Ohio St., Missouri, and either Alabama or Florida St. to lose.

 

This league could very well end up with 10 of the 12 members becoming bowl-eligible.  However, two could be on the outside looking in at 6-6, as lesser leagues have seven-win teams available.

 

Southeastern

Contenders: Alabama, Missouri

Locks: LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Auburn

Bubble: Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, Tennessee,

Still Alive: Mississippi St.

 

Alabama looks to be invincible at this point after struggling for a few weeks earlier in the year.  There is still a chance that the SEC could wind up with both participants in the National Championship Game like in 2011.  If Both Alabama and Missouri finish 12-0, the two teams could play for the national title if the conference title game is close.

 

Auburn and Tennessee are the two other surprise teams.  The Tigers are already bowl-eligible, and they could move into January 1 bowl status with a win over Georgia.  Tennessee needs two more victories and closes with Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

 

Sunbelt

Contenders: None

Locks: UL-Lafayette

Bubble: Western Kentucky, Arkansas St., Troy, South Alabama, Texas St.

Still Alive: UL-Monroe

 

UL-Lafayette could be looking at a third consecutive New Orleans Bowl invitation, and it would not surprise us if their opponent is another Pelican State school.  If multiple teams compete for the second bid, expect Western Kentucky to get the shaft the same way an eight-win Middle Tennessee team was shafted last year.  The Hilltoppers are moving to CUSA, and the league will punish them just like they punished the Blue Raiders in 2012.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

1

Alabama

135.9

2

Oregon

135.1

3

Florida St.

127.6

4

Baylor

127.0

5

Stanford

125.7

6

L S U

123.5

7

Missouri

123.3

8

Arizona St.

122.6

9

Ohio St.

121.9

10

Ole Miss

120.3

11

Wisconsin

119.9

12

Texas A&M

119.9

13

Washington

119.4

14

Oregon St.

118.7

15

Clemson

118.3

16

South Carolina

118.3

17

Miami

117.9

18

Oklahoma St.

117.9

19

U C L A

117.8

20

Texas

117.4

21

Arizona

116.3

22

Florida

116.3

23

Nebraska

116.0

24

Oklahoma

115.5

25

Louisville

115.1

26

Michigan

114.7

27

Georgia

114.6

28

Auburn

114.2

29

Notre Dame

114.1

30

Michigan St.

112.9

31

Georgia Tech

112.9

32

U S C

112.1

33

B Y U

112.0

34

Texas Tech

111.3

35

Virginia Tech

111.2

36

T C U

111.1

37

Kansas St.

109.8

38

Utah

108.6

39

Penn St.

108.5

40

Northwestern

108.5

41

Vanderbilt

107.3

42

Tennessee

106.7

43

Mississippi St.

106.7

44

Boise St.

106.5

45

Iowa

106.4

46

Central Florida

106.1

47

Fresno St.

104.9

48

Indiana

104.7

49

Cincinnati

104.3

50

Utah St.

104.3

51

North Carolina

103.9

52

Washington St.

103.7

53

East Carolina

103.4

54

Boston College

102.9

55

Minnesota

102.1

56

West Virginia

101.3

57

Ball St.

100.8

58

Illinois

100.7

59

Bowling Green

100.5

60

Northern Illinois

100.4

61

Pittsburgh

100.1

62

Duke

100.1

63

Rutgers

100.0

64

Toledo

99.1

65

Syracuse

99.0

66

Kentucky

98.8

67

Marshall

98.7

68

Wake Forest

98.3

69

Louisiana–Lafayette

97.7

70

Iowa St.

97.7

71

Houston

97.4

72

San Jose St.

97.1

73

Buffalo

96.7

74

Colorado St.

95.9

75

North Texas

95.7

76

Maryland

95.4

77

Rice

95.2

78

Arkansas

95.2

79

North Carolina St.

94.6

80

Ohio

94.5

81

S M U

94.1

82

Navy

93.4

83

Kansas

93.2

84

Western Kentucky

92.9

85

Tulsa

92.1

86

California

92.1

87

Arkansas St.

92.0

88

San Diego St.

91.9

89

Virginia

91.9

90

Purdue

90.5

91

Memphis

90.4

92

Florida Atlantic

89.1

93

Colorado

88.4

94

South Alabama

88.4

95

Kent St.

88.2

96

South Florida

87.9

97

Nevada

87.8

98

Tulane

87.8

99

Wyoming

87.4

100

Louisiana–Monroe

86.9

101

Temple

86.7

102

Connecticut

86.3

103

U T S A

86.2

104

U N L V

85.7

105

Hawaii

84.4

106

Middle Tennessee

84.3

107

Army

84.0

108

U A B

83.3

109

Central Michigan

82.8

110

Akron

82.5

111

U T E P

81.7

112

Troy

81.2

113

Texas St.

81.0

114

Louisiana Tech

80.5

115

New Mexico

80.2

116

Air Force

77.6

117

Western Michigan

75.4

118

Massachusetts

74.1

119

Miami (O)

73.2

120

Eastern Michigan

72.7

121

Southern Miss.

71.0

122

Florida Int’l

69.1

123

New Mexico St.

69.1

124

Idaho

68.8

125

Georgia St.

62.9

 

PiRate Mean

1

Oregon

132.0

2

Florida St.

131.8

3

Alabama

131.6

4

Arizona St.

122.2

5

L S U

121.6

6

Missouri

121.4

7

Wisconsin

120.7

8

Ohio St.

119.9

9

Baylor

119.4

10

Clemson

119.1

11

Miami

118.8

12

Stanford

118.1

13

Texas A&M

117.0

14

Ole Miss

116.8

15

South Carolina

115.5

16

Washington

115.3

17

Michigan

114.8

18

Nebraska

114.6

19

Louisville

114.4

20

Florida

113.5

21

Michigan St.

113.4

22

Auburn

113.2

23

U C L A

112.1

24

Arizona

112.0

25

Georgia

111.9

26

Virginia Tech

111.9

27

Georgia Tech

111.8

28

Notre Dame

111.5

29

B Y U

111.3

30

Oklahoma

110.5

31

Oregon St.

110.4

32

Penn St.

110.4

33

Central Florida

109.3

34

U S C

109.1

35

Oklahoma St.

108.5

36

Texas

108.4

37

Texas Tech

108.1

38

Houston

107.0

39

T C U

107.0

40

Indiana

107.0

41

Utah

106.6

42

Tennessee

106.2

43

Northwestern

106.1

44

Iowa

105.7

45

North Carolina

105.7

46

East Carolina

105.5

47

Vanderbilt

105.0

48

Fresno St.

104.6

49

Ball St.

104.2

50

Mississippi St.

103.7

51

Rutgers

103.2

52

Cincinnati

103.2

53

Boston College

103.1

54

Washington St.

103.0

55

Illinois

102.9

56

Marshall

102.7

57

Northern Illinois

102.0

58

Boise St.

102.0

59

Kansas St.

101.9

60

Utah St.

101.9

61

Wake Forest

101.8

62

Minnesota

101.1

63

Bowling Green

101.1

64

Duke

100.9

65

Toledo

100.4

66

Maryland

99.6

67

Louisiana–Lafayette

99.5

68

Pittsburgh

99.3

69

North Carolina St.

98.9

70

Kentucky

98.8

71

Buffalo

98.5

72

Ohio

98.3

73

Arkansas

98.3

74

North Texas

98.1

75

Rice

97.7

76

Syracuse

97.4

77

S M U

96.6

78

Memphis

96.3

79

Colorado St.

96.2

80

Navy

95.4

81

Western Kentucky

94.4

82

West Virginia

94.2

83

Virginia

94.1

84

San Jose St.

93.7

85

South Alabama

92.0

86

Tulane

91.6

87

Kent St.

91.2

88

Colorado

91.1

89

Florida Atlantic

91.0

90

Tulsa

90.6

91

San Diego St.

90.3

92

Kansas

90.3

93

Army

90.1

94

Nevada

90.1

95

Iowa St.

89.4

96

Middle Tennessee

89.2

97

Wyoming

89.1

98

Arkansas St.

88.7

99

U T S A

88.4

100

U N L V

87.9

101

Purdue

87.9

102

California

87.7

103

Temple

87.2

104

Texas St.

86.7

105

Louisiana–Monroe

86.4

106

Akron

86.4

107

Central Michigan

85.5

108

Hawaii

84.8

109

U T E P

84.5

110

Troy

84.4

111

New Mexico

84.1

112

U A B

84.0

113

South Florida

82.8

114

Louisiana Tech

82.7

115

Connecticut

82.0

116

Air Force

81.0

117

Massachusetts

80.5

118

Miami (O)

76.7

119

Eastern Michigan

76.1

120

Western Michigan

75.8

121

Idaho

73.9

122

New Mexico St.

72.4

123

Florida Int’l

71.3

124

Southern Miss.

70.6

125

Georgia St.

70.5

 

 

PiRate Bias

1

Alabama

136.6

2

Oregon

136.3

3

Florida St.

129.4

4

Baylor

128.7

5

Stanford

124.9

6

L S U

124.2

7

Missouri

123.0

8

Arizona St.

122.6

9

Ohio St.

121.9

10

Wisconsin

120.8

11

Ole Miss

120.1

12

Clemson

119.2

13

Texas A&M

119.2

14

Washington

119.1

15

Miami

118.6

16

Oklahoma St.

117.6

17

Oregon St.

117.0

18

South Carolina

116.9

19

Texas

116.4

20

U C L A

116.3

21

Louisville

116.1

22

Arizona

115.2

23

Nebraska

115.1

24

Florida

115.0

25

Oklahoma

114.6

26

Michigan

114.3

27

Auburn

114.1

28

Georgia

113.7

29

Georgia Tech

113.3

30

B Y U

112.8

31

Notre Dame

112.6

32

Michigan St.

111.7

33

U S C

111.4

34

T C U

111.3

35

Texas Tech

110.9

36

Virginia Tech

110.9

37

Kansas St.

109.1

38

Utah

108.4

39

Northwestern

108.3

40

Boise St.

107.9

41

Penn St.

107.9

42

Central Florida

107.3

43

Vanderbilt

107.1

44

Iowa

107.0

45

Mississippi St.

106.4

46

Tennessee

106.1

47

Utah St.

105.8

48

Fresno St.

105.4

49

Washington St.

104.5

50

Boston College

104.4

51

North Carolina

104.4

52

Indiana

104.2

53

East Carolina

104.2

54

Cincinnati

103.7

55

Ball St.

102.0

56

Minnesota

101.5

57

Bowling Green

101.5

58

Marshall

100.7

59

Rutgers

100.6

60

Northern Illinois

100.5

61

Illinois

100.5

62

Pittsburgh

100.2

63

West Virginia

99.9

64

Toledo

99.6

65

Kentucky

99.4

66

Duke

99.2

67

Houston

98.8

68

Wake Forest

98.8

69

Louisiana–Lafayette

98.3

70

Buffalo

98.0

71

San Jose St.

97.8

72

Syracuse

97.7

73

North Texas

96.9

74

Colorado St.

96.9

75

Maryland

96.6

76

Iowa St.

96.5

77

Ohio

95.4

78

North Carolina St.

95.4

79

Rice

95.3

80

Arkansas

93.7

81

S M U

93.3

82

Navy

93.2

83

Western Kentucky

93.1

84

Kansas

92.5

85

Virginia

92.2

86

San Diego St.

92.0

87

Arkansas St.

91.7

88

Memphis

91.2

89

Tulsa

91.0

90

California

90.4

91

Florida Atlantic

90.1

92

South Alabama

89.5

93

Kent St.

89.1

94

Tulane

88.5

95

Wyoming

88.5

96

Nevada

88.2

97

Purdue

87.9

98

South Florida

87.2

99

Louisiana–Monroe

86.5

100

Colorado

86.4

101

Temple

86.1

102

U T S A

85.9

103

U N L V

85.8

104

Connecticut

85.8

105

Army

85.7

106

Hawaii

85.1

107

Middle Tennessee

84.6

108

Akron

83.0

109

U A B

82.6

110

Central Michigan

82.3

111

Troy

82.1

112

Texas St.

81.1

113

U T E P

80.9

114

New Mexico

80.6

115

Louisiana Tech

79.9

116

Air Force

77.2

117

Western Michigan

75.5

118

Massachusetts

74.1

119

Miami (O)

71.6

120

Eastern Michigan

71.6

121

Southern Miss.

70.1

122

Florida Int’l

69.1

123

New Mexico St.

68.6

124

Idaho

68.2

125

Georgia St.

64.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

2-1

6-1

115.1

114.4

116.1

Central Florida

2-0

5-1

106.1

109.3

107.3

Cincinnati

2-1

5-2

104.3

103.2

103.7

Rutgers

1-1

4-2

100.0

103.2

100.6

Houston

2-0

5-1

97.4

107.0

98.8

S M U

1-1

2-4

94.1

96.6

93.3

Memphis

0-3

1-5

90.4

96.3

91.2

South Florida

2-0

2-4

87.9

82.8

87.2

Temple

0-3

1-6

86.7

87.2

86.1

Connecticut

0-2

0-6

86.3

82.0

85.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

96.8

98.2

97.0

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida St.

4-0

6-0

127.6

131.8

129.4

Clemson

4-1

6-1

118.3

119.1

119.2

Boston College

1-2

3-3

102.9

103.1

104.4

Syracuse

1-2

3-4

99.0

97.4

97.7

Wake Forest

2-2

4-3

98.3

101.8

98.8

Maryland

1-2

5-2

95.4

99.6

96.6

North Carolina St.

0-3

3-3

94.6

98.9

95.4

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami

2-0

6-0

117.9

118.8

118.6

Georgia Tech

3-2

4-3

112.9

111.8

113.3

Virginia Tech

3-0

6-1

111.2

111.9

110.9

North Carolina

0-3

1-5

103.9

105.7

104.4

Pittsburgh

2-2

4-2

100.1

99.3

100.2

Duke

1-2

5-2

100.1

100.9

99.2

Virginia

0-3

2-5

91.9

94.1

92.2

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.3

106.7

105.7

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baylor

3-0

6-0

127.0

119.4

128.7

Oklahoma St.

2-1

5-1

117.9

108.5

117.6

Texas

3-0

4-2

117.4

108.4

116.4

Oklahoma

3-1

6-1

115.5

110.5

114.6

Texas Tech

4-0

7-0

111.3

108.1

110.9

T C U

1-3

3-4

111.1

107.0

111.3

Kansas St.

0-3

2-4

109.8

101.9

109.1

West Virginia

1-3

3-4

101.3

94.2

99.9

Iowa St.

0-3

1-5

97.7

89.4

96.5

Kansas

0-3

2-4

93.2

90.3

92.5

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

110.2

103.8

109.8

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

3-0

7-0

121.9

119.9

121.9

Wisconsin

3-1

5-2

119.9

120.7

120.8

Penn St.

1-1

4-2

108.5

110.4

107.9

Indiana

1-2

3-4

104.7

107.0

104.2

Illinois

0-2

3-3

100.7

102.9

100.5

Purdue

0-3

1-6

90.5

87.9

87.9

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Nebraska

2-0

5-1

116.0

114.6

115.1

Michigan

2-1

6-1

114.7

114.8

114.3

Michigan St.

3-0

6-1

112.9

113.4

111.7

Northwestern

0-3

4-3

108.5

106.1

108.3

Iowa

1-2

4-3

106.4

105.7

107.0

Minnesota

1-2

5-2

102.1

101.1

101.5

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

108.9

108.7

108.4

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

East Carolina

3-1

5-2

103.4

105.5

104.2

Marshall

2-0

4-2

98.7

102.7

100.7

Florida Atlantic

1-4

2-5

89.1

91.0

90.1

Middle Tennessee

1-2

3-4

84.3

89.2

84.6

U A B

1-1

2-4

83.3

84.0

82.6

Southern Miss.

0-2

0-6

71.0

70.6

70.1

Florida Int’l

1-1

1-5

69.1

71.3

69.1

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

North Texas

2-1

4-3

95.7

98.1

96.9

Rice

3-0

5-2

95.2

97.7

95.3

Tulsa

1-1

2-4

92.1

90.6

91.0

Tulane

3-0

5-2

87.8

91.6

88.5

U T S A

1-2

2-5

86.2

88.4

85.9

U T E P

0-3

1-5

81.7

84.5

80.9

Louisiana Tech

1-2

2-5

80.5

82.7

79.9

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.0

89.1

87.1

 

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Notre Dame

 

5-2

114.1

111.5

112.6

B Y U

 

5-2

112.0

111.3

112.8

Navy

 

3-3

93.4

95.4

93.2

Army

 

3-5

84.0

90.1

85.7

New Mexico St.

 

0-7

69.1

72.4

68.6

Idaho

 

1-6

68.8

73.9

68.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

90.2

92.4

90.2

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

3-0

5-2

100.5

101.1

101.5

Buffalo

3-0

5-2

96.7

98.5

98.0

Ohio

2-1

5-2

94.5

98.3

95.4

Kent St.

1-3

2-6

88.2

91.2

89.1

Akron

1-3

2-6

82.5

86.4

83.0

Massachusetts

1-2

1-6

74.1

80.5

74.1

Miami (O)

0-3

0-7

73.2

76.7

71.6

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ball St.

4-0

7-1

100.8

104.2

102.0

Northern Illinois

3-0

7-0

100.4

102.0

100.5

Toledo

2-1

4-3

99.1

100.4

99.6

Central Michigan

2-2

3-5

82.8

85.5

82.3

Western Michigan

0-4

0-8

75.4

75.8

75.5

Eastern Michigan

0-3

1-6

72.7

76.1

71.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.8

90.5

88.0

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Boise St.

3-1

5-2

106.5

102.0

107.9

Utah St.

3-1

4-4

104.3

101.9

105.8

Colorado St.

1-1

3-4

95.9

96.2

96.9

Wyoming

2-1

4-3

87.4

89.1

88.5

New Mexico

0-3

2-5

80.2

84.1

80.6

Air Force

0-5

1-6

77.6

81.0

77.2

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

3-0

6-0

104.9

104.6

105.4

San Jose St.

2-1

3-3

97.1

93.7

97.8

San Diego St.

2-0

3-3

91.9

90.3

92.0

Nevada

2-2

3-4

87.8

90.1

88.2

U N L V

2-1

4-3

85.7

87.9

85.8

Hawaii

0-4

0-6

84.4

84.8

85.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

92.0

92.1

92.6

 

 

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon

4-0

7-0

135.1

132.0

136.3

Stanford

4-1

6-1

125.7

118.1

124.9

Washington

1-3

4-3

119.4

115.3

119.1

Oregon St.

4-0

6-1

118.7

110.4

117.0

Washington St.

2-3

4-4

103.7

103.0

104.5

California

0-4

1-6

92.1

87.7

90.4

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona St.

3-1

5-2

122.6

122.2

122.6

U C L A

2-1

5-1

117.8

112.1

116.3

Arizona

1-2

4-2

116.3

112.0

115.2

U S C

1-2

4-3

112.1

109.1

111.4

Utah

1-3

4-3

108.6

106.6

108.4

Colorado

0-3

3-3

88.4

91.1

86.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.4

110.0

112.7

 

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Missouri

3-0

7-0

123.3

121.4

123.0

South Carolina

3-2

5-2

118.3

115.5

116.9

Florida

3-2

4-3

116.3

113.5

115.0

Georgia

3-2

4-3

114.6

111.9

113.7

Vanderbilt

1-3

4-3

107.3

105.0

107.1

Tennessee

1-2

4-3

106.7

106.2

106.1

Kentucky

0-3

1-5

98.8

98.8

99.4

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

4-0

7-0

135.9

131.6

136.6

L S U

3-2

6-2

123.5

121.6

124.2

Ole Miss

2-3

4-3

120.3

116.8

120.1

Texas A&M

2-2

5-2

119.9

117.0

119.2

Auburn

3-1

6-1

114.2

113.2

114.1

Mississippi St.

0-2

3-3

106.7

103.7

106.4

Arkansas

0-4

3-5

95.2

98.3

93.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.4

112.5

114.0

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana–Lafayette

2-0

4-2

97.7

99.5

98.3

Western Kentucky

1-2

4-3

92.9

94.4

93.1

Arkansas St.

1-0

3-3

92.0

88.7

91.7

South Alabama

1-1

3-3

88.4

92.0

89.5

Louisiana–Monroe

1-1

3-4

86.9

86.4

86.5

Troy

2-1

4-3

81.2

84.4

82.1

Texas St.

1-2

4-3

81.0

86.7

81.1

Georgia St.

0-2

0-7

62.9

70.5

64.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

85.4

87.8

85.8

 

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Old Dominion

 

4-3

83.9

84.7

90.6

Georgia Southern

 

4-2

83.1

85.5

90.2

Appalachian St.

 

1-6

73.6

72.5

80.7

Charlotte

 

4-3

58.7

63.3

65.8

           
Not figured in regular averages to 100      

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Date:

October 22-26, 2013

   

 

 

 

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arkansas St. UL-Lafayette

-3.2

-8.3

-4.1

Mississippi St. Kentucky

10.9

7.9

10.0

Middle Tennessee Marshall

-11.9

-11.0

-13.6

B Y U Boise St.

8.5

12.3

7.9

Miami Wake Forest

22.6

20.0

22.8

South Florida Louisville

-24.7

-29.1

-26.4

Iowa St. Oklahoma St.

-17.2

-16.1

-18.1

Central Florida Connecticut

22.8

30.3

24.5

Minnesota Nebraska

-10.9

-10.5

-10.6

Rutgers Houston

5.6

-0.8

4.8

Akron Ball St.

-15.8

-15.3

-16.5

Iowa Northwestern

0.9

2.6

1.7

Texas A&M Vanderbilt

15.6

15.0

15.1

Virginia Georgia Tech

-18.5

-14.7

-18.1

Navy Pittsburgh

-4.2

-1.4

-4.5

Ohio Miami (O)

23.8

24.1

26.3

Bowling Green Toledo

3.9

3.2

4.4

Massachusetts Western Michigan

0.7

6.7

0.6

S M U Temple

10.4

12.4

10.2

Alabama Tennessee

32.2

28.4

33.5

Florida St. North Carolina St.

36.0

35.9

37.0

Maryland Clemson

-19.9

16.5

-19.6

Oklahoma Texas Tech

7.2

5.4

6.7

Virginia Tech Duke

14.1

14.0

14.7

Northern Illinois Eastern Michigan

30.7

28.9

31.9

North Carolina Boston College

4.0

5.6

3.0

Rice U T E P

16.0

15.7

16.9

Illinois Michigan St.

-9.2

-7.5

-8.2

Kent St. Buffalo

-6.0

-4.8

-6.4

Tulane Tulsa

-1.8

3.5

0.0

Kansas St. West Virginia

11.5

10.7

12.2

U S C Utah

6.5

5.5

6.0

Western Kentucky Troy

14.2

12.5

13.5

Air Force Notre Dame

-33.5

-27.5

-32.4

U T S A U A B

4.9

6.4

5.3

Florida Int’l Louisiana Tech

-9.4

-9.4

-8.8

Nevada U N L V

4.6

4.7

4.9

Oregon U C L A

20.3

22.9

23.0

Missouri South Carolina

8.0

8.9

9.1

Kansas Baylor

-30.8

-26.1

-33.2

San Jose St. Wyoming

12.2

7.1

11.8

Texas St. South Alabama

-5.4

-3.3

-6.4

UL-Monroe Georgia St.

26.5

18.4

24.6

Southern Miss. N. Texas

-22.7

-25.5

-24.8

Auburn Florida Atlantic

28.1

25.2

27.0

Ole Miss Idaho

55.0

46.4

55.4

T C U Texas

-3.8

1.1

-2.6

Ohio St. Penn St.

16.4

12.5

17.0

Colorado Arizona

-24.9

-17.9

-25.8

Oregon St. Stanford

-4.0

-4.7

-4.9

San Diego St. Fresno St.

-10.0

-11.3

-10.4

Washington California

30.3

30.6

31.7

Hawaii Colorado St.

-7.5

-7.4

-7.8

 

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

U N L V

vs.

U S C

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Boise St.

vs.

Arizona St.

Famous Idaho Potato

Colorado St.

vs.

Bowling Green

New Orleans

UL-Lafayette

vs.

Middle Tennessee

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

Buffalo *

vs.

Marshall

Hawai’i

San Jose St.

vs.

Tulane

Little Caesars Pizza

Northern Illinois

vs.

Notre Dame *

Poinsettia

Fresno St.

vs.

Ohio *

Military Bowl

Boston College

vs.

East Carolina

Texas

Minnesota

vs.

West Virginia

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Arizona

vs.

B Y U

Pinstripe

Rutgers

vs.

Kansas St.

Belk

Houston

vs.

Duke

Russell Athletic

Louisville

vs.

Virginia Tech

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Texas

vs.

Iowa

Armed Forces

Utah St.

vs.

Navy

Music City

Maryland

vs.

Georgia

Alamo

Texas Tech

vs.

Stanford

Holiday

Oklahoma St.

vs.

U C L A

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

Vanderbilt

vs.

Georgia Tech

Sun

Pittsburgh

vs.

Washington

Liberty

Tennessee

vs.

North Texas

Chick-fil-A

Clemson

vs.

Texas A&M

Heart Of Dallas

Rice

vs.

Indiana

Gator

Wisconsin

vs.

Ole Miss

Outback

L S U

vs.

Michigan

Capital One

Michigan St.

vs.

Auburn

Rose

Ohio St.

vs.

Oregon St.

Fiesta

Baylor

vs.

Central Florida

Sugar

Missouri

vs.

Miami

Cotton

South Carolina

vs.

Oklahoma

Orange

Florida St.

vs.

Nebraska

BBVA Compass Bowl

Cincinnati

vs.

Florida

GoDaddy.com

Arkansas St.

vs.

Ball St.

BCS Championship

Alabama

vs.

Oregon

October 8, 2013

PiRate Ratings: College Football–October 10-12, 2013

College Football’s “Big Dance-Little Dance.”

In Division One college basketball, you have experts offering up their “bracketology every week.  Some have already begun to issue these reports before the first exhibition game has been played.

In college football, FBS-Style, the Big Dance is basically just the National Championship Game, at least for one final season.  68 additional teams receive bowl games that for all practical purposes can be considered football’s NIT, or what we at the PiRate Ratings call, “The Little Dance.”

The equivalent of bracketology is the bowl projection.  Unfortunately, very little discussion comes forth.  We do not know whether the weekly bowl projections made by the so-called experts look forward and predict the outcomes of the remaining games or just go by the current won-loss records and national ratings.

In basketball, you have sure things, near locks, probables, teams that are definitely out unless they win their conference tournament, and the infamous bubble.  It is the bubble that stirs so much interest, because usually 20-25 teams contend for the last dozen spots in the NCAA Tournament.

What if someone offered this same discussion for football?  We could have two separate bubbles, one for the National Championship Game and another for the remaining bowls.

That someone is The PiRate Ratings.  Here is our first 2013 edition of “bowltology.”

Here is how we shall break down the various degrees of bowl-worthiness that we use to determine which teams should go to which bowl games.

Contenders: These are the cream of the crop.  They are definitely going to play in a bowl, but unlike the next category down, they also have a legitimate shot at playing in the National Championship Game.  This does not include teams that could go 12-0 but have no shot at playing for the title.

Locks: These are teams that will definitely be playing in a bowl.  A couple of teams are already 6-0, so for the most part, they are now locks, but this also includes the teams that you know will be in a bowl even if their record is presently 3-2.

The Bubble: These are teams that will compete against each other to become bowl-eligible and those that do become bowl eligible will earn the lower-tiered bowl invitations.  These do not include teams that have a great shot at finishing 6-6 but play in a conference where 6-6 usually does not earn a bowl bid (think 4th or 5th place in the Sunbelt at 6-6, whereas 7-5 in the Sunbelt moves a team into this category.)

Still Alive: These are teams that appear to be out of bowl consideration for now, but if something happened, and they began to win week-after-week, they could move ahead of a bubble team and end up in a bowl.  Think of a team that starts 1-5 and then finishes 5-1 to take the last bowl spot from a major conference.  The 6-6 teams from the lesser conferences that usually do not receive a bowl invitation at 6-6 also go here, because just one extra win will move them into the bubble.  Remember, some of the bowls have secondary agreements with some of these lesser conferences, and a 7-5 team from this lesser conference will receive preferential treatment, even taking precedence over a 7-5 team from a big conference.

Okay, so here is our look at each conference.  We will list each league’s bowl tie-ins at the end of each conference report.

American Athletic Conference

 

Contenders: Louisville

Locks: Central Florida, Houston

Bubble: Rutgers, Cincinnati

Still Alive: Memphis, S M U

 

Louisville will only make it into the top two of the Final BCS Standings if only one team has one or fewer losses.  It will take a 10-2 or 11-2 record by all but one team for the Cardinals to jump into the national title game.  There is still no guarantee that UL will even run the table in the AAC.  The Cards still have games with Rutgers, Central Florida, Houston, and Cincinnati.  Even though these four are not power teams, one any given Saturday (or Thursday), one of these teams can pull off the upset.

Central Florida is very much capable of winning 10 games in the regular season, and with a week off to prepare for Louisville, the Knights even have a chance to win the AAC, as they get another week off to prepare for Houston on November 9.

Houston is a quiet 4-0, because the Cougars don’t have Case Keenum, Kevin Kolb, David Klingler, or Andre Ware playing, and they don’t have Art Briles or Kevin Sumlin coaching.  UH has a chance to improve to 8-0 before they face Central Florida and Louisville on the road in back-to-back weeks.

Rutgers is close to moving up one line.  The Scarlet Knights need just two more wins to become bowl eligible, and there are three very winnable games on the back half of the schedule.  We are being a little conservative with RU’s placement.

Cincinnati appeared to be inconsistent in September, but it is starting to look like the Bearcats are simply mediocre.  After losing to winless South Florida last week, UC must find three wins to earn a bowl bid.  Temple, Connecticut, Memphis, and SMU give the Bearcats four shots to win three, but this team can easily go 2-2 in these games and lose the rest to finish 5-7.

Memphis and SMU both have just one win at this juncture.  Neither looks on the surface to have a chance at a bowl, but for different reasons, we will include both in this category.

Memphis is just 1-3, so the Tigers have eight games remaining and must go 5-3 to become bowl eligible.  After a probable loss to Houston this week, which would drop UM to 1-4, the Tigers have their elimination game the following week against SMU.  The loser of that game will be removed from this list, while the winner will still be alive.

As for Memphis, the Tigers still have games remaining against Cincinnati, UT-Martin, South Florida, Temple, and UConn.  SMU has Temple, Cincinnati, UConn, and South Florida.  They must beat Memphis and all four of these other teams to get to 6-6.

Bowl Tie-Ins

1. BCS

2. Russell Athletic

3. Belk

4. Pinstripe

5. BBVA Compass

6. Beef O’Brady’s

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

 

Contenders: Florida St., Clemson, and Miami

Locks: Virginia Tech

Bubble: Maryland, Georgia Tech

Still Alive: The rest of the league other than North Carolina and Virginia

 

The ACC is still number five among the five big conferences, but the league is closing the gap some this year.  Clemson has the power win with the season-opening defeat of Georgia.  Florida State could get a power win over Florida, something Miami already has.  If any of these three goes 13-0, they will be squarely in the National Championship Game conversation.  Of course, if Oregon and Alabama stay undefeated, it does not matter if one of these teams runs the table without surrendering another point this year.

Virginia Tech didn’t get their power win.  They fell to Alabama in the opening game, and that keeps the Hokies out of contender position.  VT can still win the conference and garner an Orange Bowl bid.

Maryland and Georgia Tech are the best of the rest.  The Terrapins returned to earth with the 63-0 loss to FSU.  How quarterback C. J. Brown recovers from the concussion he suffered may determine if the Terps can recover and win seven or eight games, or if they become the 2013 version of the 2012 Arizona Cardinals.

Georgia Tech has a favorable schedule to get to six and probably seven wins, but the Yellow Jackets have games at BYU and Clemson plus the finale at home against Georgia.  7-5 now appears to be the ceiling.

The rest of the Atlantic Division as well as Pittsburgh and Duke in the Coastal Division are fighting it out for what looks like three bowl bids.  As of this week, we give the edge to North Carolina St., Pittsburgh, and Duke, but that could change quickly.

Bowl Tie-Ins

1. BCS (Orange)

2. Chick-fil-A

3. Russell Athletic

4. Sun

5. Belk

6. Music City

7. AdvoCare V100

8. Military

9. Kraft Fight Hunger (If BYU Not Eligible)

 

Big 12

Contenders: Baylor, Oklahoma

Locks: Texas Tech, Oklahoma St.

Bubble: T C U, Texas, West Virginia, Kansas St.

Still Alive: None

 

Baylor is averaging more points per game than their basketball team will likely average.  The Bears should be 7-0 with an extra week to prepare for Oklahoma on Thursday night, November 7.  They will then have an extra two days to prepare for Texas Tech at Cowboys’ Stadium.  The schedule is no pushover after that, as BU will then have to beat Oklahoma St. and TCU on the road and close with a December 7 win over Texas.  If they go 12-0, they still will need either Oregon or Alabama to lose a game and probably need Ohio St. to lose as well.

Oklahoma has a road win over Notre Dame, and if they go 12-0, it will also include road wins over Baylor and Oklahoma St.  The Sooners’ defense is championship worthy, but unless the offense becomes a lot more consistent, OU is headed for a second or third place finish in the league.

Texas Tech is still undefeated, but until they pick up a key win, such as the game at Oklahoma at the end of the month, we cannot include them as a national title contender.

Oklahoma St. looks like an eight or nine-win team.  This version of Cowboys is firing a six-shooter with just four bullets.

TCU has not been the same since rejoining their former Southwest Conference rivals in the Big 12.  At 2-3, The Horned Frogs have a tough hill to climb with quarterback Casey Pachall out with a broken left arm.  To get to bowl eligibility, TCU must win four of the final seven.  Included in the final seven are games against Oklahoma St., Texas, Kansas St., and Baylor.  So, the Frogs must beat at least one of these teams as well as Kansas, West Virginia, and Iowa St.

Texas, West Virginia, and Kansas St. sit on slippery bubbles.  The trio all have better than 50-50 chances to reach six wins, but as of today, they must be placed in the bottom rung.  Nothing is guaranteed with this trio.

Bowl Tie-Ins

1. BCS (Fiesta)

2. Cotton

3. Alamo

4. Buffalo Wild Wings

5. Holiday

6. Texas

7. Pinstripe

 

Big Ten

Contenders: Ohio St., Michigan

Locks: Wisconsin, Michigan St., Nebraska, Northwestern

Bubble: Iowa, Illinois, Indiana

Still Alive: Minnesota

 

Ohio St. could run the table for the second consecutive season, running its unbeaten streak to 25 games and still have to settle for a Rose Bowl bid.  The Buckeyes could also be faced with having to beat Michigan in back-to-back weeks just to have a chance to play for the national title.

Don’t count out Michigan.  The Wolverines are in the same boat as Ohio St.  The Legends Division is a little tougher top to bottom than the Leaders, and Michigan must also play at Penn St. in interdivisional play.

Michigan St., Nebraska, and Northwestern will contend with Michigan for the division title, but none of this group has a chance at ascending to the top two of the BCS.  Wisconsin can probably do no better than second in the Leaders Division, but the Badgers will be back in a bowl in December or January.

The Big Ten has its own “Three I” league as its bubble.  Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana all have the talent and schedule to become bowl eligible, but they still have some work to do before moving to lock status.

Minnesota has now dropped two in a row in league play after beginning the year with four non-conference wins.  The Gophers can still find two conference wins, but the going will not be easy.  Unfortunately, Head Coach Jerry Kill has a seizure condition that has forced him to miss multiple games this year and in his three years in Minneapolis.  He may need to step down at the end of the season.

Bowl Tie-Ins

1. BCS (Rose)

2. Capital One

3. Outback

4. Gator

5. Buffalo Wild Wings

6. Texas

7. Heart of Dallas

8. Little Caesar’s Pizza

 

Conference USA

Contenders: None

Locks: East Carolina, Marshall

Bubble: Middle Tennessee, Rice, Tulane

Still Alive: Florida Atlantic, Louisiana Tech, North Texas, UTSA

 

This conference is probably the hardest one to prognosticate.  The East is basically a two-team race between East Carolina and Marshall with the winner of their regular season finales taking the division flag.  The loser will quite likely take the number two overall bowl.

The West Division is up for grabs with Rice and surprising Tulane currently tied for first and North Texas, Louisiana Tech, and UTSA all capable of winning the division title.

Last year, Rice was 2-6 and apparently out of bowl consideration, but we here actually called for the Owls to win four in a row and earn a small bowl.  It would not surprise us at all if another CUSA team pulled off a similar feat, so until each CUSA team has reached seven losses, we really cannot count them out.  Florida Atlantic, Louisiana Tech, and UTSA are all 2-4, but one of these teams could very well go 4-2 down the stretch in this conference.

Bowl Tie-Ins

1. Liberty

2. Heart of Dallas

3. Military

4. Beef O’Brady’s

5. Hawaii

6. New Orleans

3. The Armed Forces Bowl Will Take CUSA #3 if Navy is ineligible and knock the 3-6 bowls down one spot in the pecking order

 

Independents

Contenders: None

Locks: Notre Dame, BYU, Navy

Bubble: None

Still Alive: Army

 

Notre Dame is out of the national title picture this year, but the Irish can still earn a BCS at-large bid.  They might have to run the table to get into the top eight of the BCS standings and automatically qualify.  A loss to Stanford at the end of the season would likely drop them out of consideration, especially if Fresno St. or Northern Illinois sneak in through the back door.  Notre Dame will most likely become an at-large bowl participant where a conference cannot fulfill its allotment.

BYU and Navy automatically have set bowls to attend if they are bowl eligible, and both should have no trouble getting to six wins.

Army also has an automatic bowl invitation, but the Black Knights are in jeopardy once again of not becoming bowl eligible.  At 2-4, there are five winnable games left on the schedule, but four of those five games could just as easily go the other way.

Bowl Tie-Ins

Notre Dame—Automatically Gets a BCS Bowl if they finish in the BCS Top 8

B Y U—Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl if Bowl Eligible

Navy—Armed Forces Bowl if Bowl Eligible

Army—Poinsettia Bowl if Bowl Eligible

 

Mid-American Conference

Contenders: None

Locks: Northern Illinois

Bubble: Ball St., Bowling Green, Ohio

Still Alive: Buffalo, Toledo

 

This conference is treated a little differently than some of the others above.  While we fully expect that all six of the teams we have listed here will be bowl eligible, it is not guaranteed that more than three will be invited to bowls.  It all rides on how many conferences will not be able to fill its allotted bowl spots.  The MAC benefits when this happens, as they always have extra bowl eligible teams after its three guaranteed spots are taken.

Northern Illinois could very well go 13-0 this year and have to play in a lesser bowl than last year’s Orange.  The Huskies are in a dogfight with Fresno St., and they will come in second if both go undefeated.  One loss this year eliminates them from BCS bowl talk.

Ball St. is the team most likely to upset NIU.  The Cardinals may have the top coach in the nation in Pete Lembo.  He quickly turned this program around faster than Brady Hoke earlier in the decade.  Watch for Lembo to become a hot commodity after the season, and he could take another job before the bowls.

Bowling Green and Ohio should decide the East Division winner when the two face off on Tuesday night, November 12 in Bowling Green.  The loser of that game will be on the slippery part of the bubble as the fourth best team in a league that has three guaranteed bowl bids.

Buffalo and Toledo should both end up with seven wins, and if it is a bad season for other conferences failing to get enough bowl eligible teams, these two schools could still earn a bowl bid.

Bowl Tie-Ins

(Northern Illinois could earn a return trip to a BCS Bowl as an automatic at-large qualifier)

1. GoDaddy.com

2. Little Caesar’s Pizza

3. Famous Idaho Potato

4. Military Bowl if ACC cannot provide an 8th bowl eligible team

 

Mountain West Conference

Contenders: None

Locks: Fresno St., Boise St.

Bubble: Utah St.

Still Alive: Everybody else but Air Force and Hawaii

 

After CUSA, this is the next hardest conference to figure out.  One thing is clear: if Fresno St. runs the table, the Bulldogs are almost a lock to earn the at-large BCS Bowl Bid and will almost equally assuredly go to the Fiesta Bowl to play the Big 12 Champion.  FSU has played its toughest opponents for the season and has defeated Rutgers and Boise St.  A loss to any of the final six teams (UNLV, San Diego St., Nevada, Wyoming, New Mexico, and San Jose St.) would be a major upset, and Fresno will definitely be favored over the Mountain Division champion in the conference championship game.  However, if Boise St. wins the Mountain Division, it will be very hard beating the Broncos twice in one season.  If Kevin Sumlin leaves Texas A&M for either Texas, USC, or the NFL, then Bulldog coach Tim DeRuyter will quickly emerge as one of the top candidates for that job.

Boise St. is not up to par with its recent success, but the Broncos will definitely earn a bowl bid this year.  Whether they can keep Coach Chris Petersen with some major job openings popping up is a bigger mystery.

Utah St. is Boise’s top competitor for the Mountain Division crown, and the two teams face off in Logan this weekend.  Expect the winner to face Fresno in the conference championship game.

If Fresno St. earns a BCS at-large bid, this league may have difficulty meeting its bowl obligations.  The rest of the league is so evenly matched, they could cannibalize themselves and end up with several 5-7 teams.

We believe at least two surprise teams will emerge with at least six wins.  Wyoming is halfway there with seven more games scheduled.  The Cowboys have a crucial three-game stretch starting this weekend with New Mexico at home, and followed by a home game with top rival Colorado St and a road game against San Jose St.  The Cowboys must win two of these three, because they only have one legitimate shot at a win in the final four with Fresno St., Boise St., and Utah St. remaining to be played, the latter two on enemy turf.

UNLV is perennially picked to finish last in the MWC, but the Rebels show signs of life this year.  They have already surpassed last year’s win total, and at 3-2, Coach Bobby Hauck appears to have his squad poised to make a run to bowl eligibility.  The Rebels should top Hawaii this weekend for win number four, and then there are games to be played against Nevada, San Jose St., Utah St., Air Force, and San Diego St. (Fresno St. too, but we will count this as a sure loss).  The Rebels will need to pick off two more wins, and they are capable of doing such.

San Diego St. has been a disappointment thus far in 2013.  An opening loss to Eastern Illinois set the tone for a let down, and the Aztecs find themselves at 2-3 with Fresno St. and Boise St. still to be played.  It leaves little room for error, and we do not believe SDSU will make it past five wins.

You can say almost the exact thing for San Jose St.  The Spartans are nowhere near the team they were last year under former coach Mike MacIntyre.  At 2-3, SJSU still has road games against Colorado St., UNLV, and Nevada, as well as home games with Wyoming, Navy, and Fresno St.  It looks like at least seven losses for the Spartans.

Nevada has the same issues as San Jose St.  The Wolfpack are breaking in a new coach trying to replace a legend, and things are not working out so far this year.  A 3-3 first half precedes a second half that includes games against Boise St., Fresno St., and BYU.  One more loss in the other games, which include UNLV, Colorado St., and San Jose St., means no bowl.

Colorado St. is 2-3 with enough talent to win four more games, and their next three games will show us if they are ready to move up in the league.  They must win two of the next three (San Jose St., Wyoming, Hawaii) to prove they belong on the bubble.

New Mexico is a long shot at best.  The Lobos can run the ball against anybody on their schedule, but they can just as easily be bowled over on defense.  UNM is 2-3 and must upset Wyoming this week to stay alive in the bowl picture.  If they are 3-3 by this time next week, then the Lobos will become a bubble team.

Bowl Tie-Ins

(Fresno St. could earn a BCS At-Large Bowl)

1. MAACO Las Vegas

2. Poinsettia

3. Armed Forces

4. New Mexico

5. Hawaii (Hawaii will not be bowl eligible and not receive this)

6. Famous Idaho Potato

 

Pac-12 Conference

Contenders: Oregon, Stanford, UCLA

Locks: Washington, Arizona, Oregon St.

Bubble: USC, Washington St., Arizona St.

Still Alive: Utah

 

Oregon is the heaviest favorite of all non-SEC teams to make it to the National Championship Game.  The Ducks look to have their best team ever, but they still have three very tough road games ahead in Washington, Stanford, and Arizona.  If they run the table and win the Pac-12 Championship Game, which is almost definitely to make them have to beat either UCLA or Arizona twice this year, then the Ducks will finish in the top two no matter how many of the other undefeated teams run the table.  A 13-0 Oregon team will finish ahead of undefeated Ohio St., Clemson, Florida St., Oklahoma, or Baylor.

Stanford has not yet reached its potential, and the Cardinal are 5-0.  They will host Oregon on Thursday night, November 7, but they also must host UCLA in two weeks and play at Oregon St. the week after.  It is no guarantee that Stanford will be 8-0 when the Ducks come to Palo Alto.

UCLA is definitely the third banana in this league, but the Bruins relish that giant pale blue chip on their shoulders.  The problem for the UCLAns is they have to play at Stanford and Oregon in back-to-back weeks, and we are not sure Alabama could win both of those games.  In order to get to the national title game, the Bruins would have to win both and then defeat one of those two powers again in the conference title game.

Washington, Arizona, and Oregon St. have just one loss each.  These three teams will definitely be bowl eligible and fight for spots in the pecking order.

Arizona faces a very tough assignment Thursday night when they get the honor of playing USC in the Trojans’ first game since Lane Kiffin’s firing.  You can expect SC to give 110% effort, but the Wildcats should be able to run the ball with success.  If UA wins this game, they might become the favorite to take the South Division flag with UCLA having to come to Tucson in November for a homecoming tilt.  Arizona hosts Oregon in late November, and this could be the biggest trap game on the Ducks’ schedule.

We will find out this week if Washington St. and USC belong in the bowl lock category.  The Cougars look to be in the process of returning to relevance in the Pac-12.  A win over Oregon St. would move WSU to 5-2 with at least two winnable games remaining.

As for USC, the team has talent but not enough depth to compete in the South Division.  Interim coach Ed Orgeron did not have success as a head coach at Ole Miss and was criticized many times for his decision-making in games.  The Trojans may sneak by with a 7-6 record this year, but the big talk in Troy is about who will be the next coach.

Arizona St. is a dangerous team to overlook.  The Sun Devils had near misses against Stanford and Notre Dame, and you just know they are going to ruin somebody’s season.  Their home game with Washington in two weeks could be the deciding factor in whether they will compete with UCLA and Arizona for the division title.

Utah needs three more conference wins to become bowl eligible, but the Utes could easily finish 2-5 or 1-6 and miss out.  They will have to come up with a couple of upsets.

Bowl Tie-Ins

1. BCS (Rose)

2. Alamo

3. Holiday

4. Sun

5. MAACO Las Vegas

6. Kraft Fight Hunger

7. New Mexico

8. Poinsettia if Army is not bowl eligible

 

Southeastern Conference

Contenders: Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Texas A&M

Locks: Florida, Missouri, South Carolina, Auburn

Bubble: Ole Miss

Still Alive: Tennessee, Mississippi St., Vanderbilt, Arkansas

 

Only in the SEC can you find three one-loss teams still in contention for the national title.  The SEC West is only marginally weaker than the NFC East (okay that’s not really true but it sounds good).  If Georgia runs the table and defeats Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, and if there are not two undefeated teams remaining, the Bulldogs will play for all the marbles.  If LSU runs the table and defeats Georgia in a rematch at the SEC Championship Game, the Tigers will be in that same position.  If Texas A&M wins out and Alabama runs the table, there is a chance the Aggies could face Alabama in a rematch at the National Championship Game.

In order for any other league to send a one-loss champion to the National Championship Game, the SEC must have no one-loss teams remaining.  We have not even included the possibility that Florida, South Carolina, or Missouri could get to the postseason with just one loss.  Auburn has just one loss at the current time, but the Tigers will fall two or three more times this year, so we have them in the lock category behind the others just mentioned.

Ole Miss needs three more wins to get to six, and we cannot see how they could falter and finish 5-7.  However, we want to see how the Rebels fare this week against Texas A&M and next week against LSU before we move them to lock status.

The SEC has 10 bowl agreements, and if they send a second team to the BCS, 11 teams are capable of earning bowl bids.  Our ratings show that there is a strong possibility that too many high-caliber teams could send all but Alabama to two losses and actually prevent the league from sending a second team to a BCS Bowl if Fresno St. or Northern Illinois sneaks into the “automatic” category.

There are four teams still alive for bowl eligibility, and we expect at least one to make it to six wins.  The new leader of this pack is Tennesssee.  The Vols showed they are capable of playing with the big boys at home when they came oh so close to ruining Georgia’s chances to stay in title contention.  The final three games are winnable with Auburn and Vanderbilt visiting Neyland Stadium before the Vols finish the regular season at Kentucky.  The October 19 home game against South Carolina is now a winnable contest, so Tennessee basically has to win three of these four games.

Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen was a hot commodity three years ago when he guided the Bulldogs to nine wins including a blowout of Michigan in the Gator Bowl.  Now, he finds himself on the verge of moving to the hot seat.  His Bulldogs are 2-3 with games yet to be played against South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss.  It looks like a sub .500 year, and Mullen may wish he had taken another job when the opportunities arose.

Arkansas and Vanderbilt don’t appear to have the talent this year to make a bowl, but both still have a chance at 3-3.

Bowl Tie-Ins

1. BCS (Sugar)

2. Capital One

3 or 4 *: Outback

3 or 4 *: Cotton

5. Chick-fil-A

6. Gator

7 or 8: Music City

7 or 8: Liberty

9. BBVA Compass

10. AdvoCare V100

* Generally, the Outback takes a team from the East and the Cotton takes a team from the West, but it is not a definite rule.

 

Sunbelt Conference

Contenders: None

Locks: None

Bubble: UL-Lafayette, Western Kentucky, Arkansas St., Texas St.

Still Alive: South Alabama, Troy, UL-Monroe

 

The weakest conference is not that far behind the MAC and CUSA.  The Sunbelt has just two guaranteed bowl bids, but there are a couple of secondary agreements with other bowls.

Louisiana Lafayette is the team to beat in this league, but the Ragin’ Cajuns must play the two toughest contenders on the road in back-to-back Tuesday night games starting a week from today.  Western Kentucky already has a conference loss to South Alabama, but the Hilltoppers might have the most talent in the league as well as Coach Bobby Petrino at the helm.  Arkansas St. is 1-0 in the league, but the Red Wolves appear to be a little less talented than the last two seasons.  ASU finishes the season at Western, and the winner of that game could very well win the league title.

Texas St. appeared to be on the verge of moving up to conference title contender, but the Bobcats lost last week to UL-Lafayette and did not look like they belonged among the contenders.

South Alabama, Troy, and UL-Monroe face tough roads ahead to get to seven wins, but one of this trio should pull it off and become a dark horse bowl contender with Texas St. waiting for leagues to come up short in their bowl allotments.

Bowl Tie-Ins

1. New Orleans

2. GoDaddy.com

3. Beef O’Brady’s if CUSA or AAC cannot supply a team

4. Little Casesar’s Pizza if Big Ten cannot supply a team

 

This Week’s PiRate Rankings

PiRate Regular

1

Oregon

134.2

2

Alabama

133.0

3

Stanford

127.7

4

Washington

123.9

5

L S U

123.9

6

Clemson

123.2

7

Florida St.

123.0

8

Baylor

122.7

9

Ohio St.

122.3

10

Texas A&M

121.6

11

Ole Miss

119.7

12

Georgia

119.0

13

Florida

118.8

14

Oklahoma

118.5

15

Louisville

118.4

16

Miami

118.3

17

Missouri

118.3

18

U C L A

118.1

19

Arizona St.

117.5

20

Oklahoma St.

117.4

21

South Carolina

117.1

22

Arizona

116.7

23

Wisconsin

116.4

24

Texas

115.1

25

Michigan St.

115.0

26

Michigan

114.8

27

Oregon St.

114.2

28

Notre Dame

114.0

29

T C U

113.6

30

Northwestern

113.5

31

Nebraska

112.8

32

Texas Tech

111.5

33

Virginia Tech

111.3

34

Georgia Tech

111.3

35

U S C

110.8

36

B Y U

110.7

37

Auburn

110.2

38

Kansas St.

109.9

39

Mississippi St.

107.9

40

Penn St.

107.7

41

Iowa

105.9

42

Indiana

105.8

43

Washington St.

105.7

44

Utah

105.5

45

Vanderbilt

105.5

46

Utah St.

104.9

47

Tennessee

104.9

48

Fresno St.

104.6

49

Cincinnati

104.2

50

Boise St.

103.5

51

Central Florida

103.4

52

North Carolina

103.4

53

Northern Illinois

102.3

54

East Carolina

102.1

55

Ball St.

101.8

56

West Virginia

101.7

57

Illinois

101.5

58

Syracuse

101.3

59

Boston College

101.0

60

Iowa St.

101.0

61

Kentucky

100.4

62

Pittsburgh

100.3

63

Toledo

100.2

64

Arkansas

100.2

65

Minnesota

99.8

66

Marshall

99.7

67

Bowling Green

99.3

68

Rutgers

99.2

69

Maryland

99.2

70

Duke

96.5

71

North Carolina St.

96.0

72

San Jose St.

96.0

73

Houston

95.9

74

Wake Forest

95.8

75

Ohio

95.6

76

Louisiana–Lafayette

95.6

77

Navy

95.1

78

Rice

94.7

79

Western Kentucky

94.7

80

California

94.4

81

Colorado St.

94.2

82

Buffalo

93.5

83

S M U

93.3

84

North Texas

92.8

85

Purdue

92.5

86

San Diego St.

92.1

87

Virginia

92.0

88

Arkansas St.

91.9

89

Tulsa

91.4

90

Memphis

91.3

91

Colorado

91.2

92

Kansas

90.5

93

Wyoming

90.5

94

Kent St.

89.3

95

Florida Atlantic

88.3

96

South Florida

87.7

97

Connecticut

87.6

98

Nevada

87.6

99

Middle Tennessee

86.8

100

Louisiana–Monroe

86.7

101

U T S A

86.6

102

U N L V

86.3

103

Tulane

85.9

104

South Alabama

85.9

105

Army

85.1

106

U A B

84.1

107

Hawaii

84.1

108

Troy

83.9

109

Temple

83.6

110

Texas St.

82.8

111

U T E P

82.4

112

New Mexico

82.1

113

Louisiana Tech

80.9

114

Central Michigan

80.2

115

Akron

79.8

116

Western Michigan

77.7

117

Air Force

77.4

118

Eastern Michigan

76.1

119

Miami (O)

75.1

120

Southern Miss.

74.3

121

Massachusetts

73.8

122

New Mexico St.

69.5

123

Idaho

68.9

124

Florida Int’l

68.3

125

Georgia St.

60.1

 

PiRate Mean

1

Oregon

130.8

2

Florida St.

127.5

3

Alabama

126.7

4

Clemson

124.2

5

L S U

122.6

6

Ohio St.

120.3

7

Miami

119.4

8

Washington

119.2

9

Stanford

119.1

10

Texas A&M

118.7

11

Louisville

117.1

12

Wisconsin

116.9

13

Georgia

116.9

14

Arizona

116.8

15

Florida

116.1

16

Missouri

115.9

17

Ole Miss

115.7

18

Michigan St.

115.4

19

Baylor

114.4

20

South Carolina

114.4

21

Oklahoma

114.3

22

Michigan

113.4

23

U C L A

112.5

24

Virginia Tech

112.4

25

Arizona St.

112.4

26

Notre Dame

111.4

27

Nebraska

111.3

28

Northwestern

110.9

29

Penn St.

110.4

30

Georgia Tech

110.2

31

T C U

110.2

32

Texas Tech

109.8

33

Indiana

109.8

34

B Y U

109.5

35

Auburn

109.3

36

U S C

108.2

37

Oklahoma St.

107.3

38

Central Florida

106.8

39

Washington St.

106.5

40

Ball St.

105.8

41

Oregon St.

105.8

42

Houston

105.4

43

Texas

105.2

44

Iowa

105.2

45

North Carolina

105.1

46

Utah

104.7

47

Tennessee

104.5

48

Mississippi St.

104.5

49

Marshall

104.3

50

Arkansas

104.3

51

Maryland

104.2

52

Illinois

104.2

53

East Carolina

104.2

54

Fresno St.

103.8

55

Cincinnati

103.7

56

Northern Illinois

103.7

57

Rutgers

102.9

58

Vanderbilt

102.9

59

Kansas St.

102.2

60

Utah St.

101.8

61

Toledo

101.7

62

North Carolina St.

101.2

63

Kentucky

101.1

64

Boston College

100.9

65

Bowling Green

100.3

66

Ohio

99.5

67

Syracuse

99.1

68

Pittsburgh

99.1

69

Wake Forest

99.0

70

Minnesota

98.9

71

Boise St.

98.1

72

Navy

97.5

73

Memphis

97.3

74

Rice

97.3

75

Louisiana–Lafayette

96.9

76

Western Kentucky

96.7

77

Duke

96.5

78

S M U

95.1

79

North Texas

94.6

80

Colorado St.

94.6

81

West Virginia

94.3

82

Virginia

94.1

83

Buffalo

94.1

84

Colorado

93.9

85

Wyoming

92.4

86

Middle Tennessee

92.1

87

Iowa St.

91.9

88

San Jose St.

91.9

89

Army

91.6

90

Kent St.

91.6

91

Nevada

90.5

92

San Diego St.

90.2

93

California

90.1

94

Tulane

89.9

95

U N L V

89.7

96

Florida Atlantic

89.6

97

South Alabama

89.6

98

Purdue

89.4

99

Texas St.

89.0

100

U T S A

88.6

101

Tulsa

88.5

102

Arkansas St.

87.8

103

Kansas

87.7

104

New Mexico

87.5

105

U T E P

86.6

106

Louisiana–Monroe

85.6

107

Troy

85.6

108

U A B

84.8

109

Hawaii

83.8

110

Akron

83.6

111

Connecticut

83.4

112

Temple

83.4

113

Louisiana Tech

83.3

114

Central Michigan

82.8

115

South Florida

82.1

116

Massachusetts

81.7

117

Air Force

81.1

118

Eastern Michigan

79.6

119

Western Michigan

78.4

120

Miami (O)

78.0

121

Idaho

74.8

122

Southern Miss.

73.7

123

New Mexico St.

72.9

124

Florida Int’l

70.5

125

Georgia St.

69.3

 

PiRate Bias

1

Oregon

135.4

2

Alabama

134.9

3

Stanford

126.8

4

L S U

125.1

5

Clemson

124.7

6

Florida St.

124.7

7

Washington

124.0

8

Baylor

123.8

9

Ohio St.

122.6

10

Texas A&M

121.2

11

Louisville

120.0

12

Miami

119.4

13

Ole Miss

119.3

14

Georgia

119.0

15

Oklahoma

118.5

16

Florida

117.6

17

Missouri

117.6

18

U C L A

117.1

19

Oklahoma St.

116.9

20

Wisconsin

116.7

21

Arizona

116.4

22

Arizona St.

116.1

23

South Carolina

115.6

24

T C U

114.5

25

Michigan

114.2

26

Northwestern

113.9

27

Michigan St.

113.8

28

Texas

113.5

29

Notre Dame

112.3

30

Oregon St.

112.2

31

Nebraska

111.7

32

B Y U

111.7

33

Virginia Tech

111.4

34

Texas Tech

111.4

35

Georgia Tech

111.1

36

U S C

110.3

37

Auburn

109.9

38

Kansas St.

109.2

39

Mississippi St.

107.6

40

Penn St.

107.0

41

Washington St.

106.5

42

Iowa

106.3

43

Utah St.

106.2

44

Indiana

106.0

45

Utah

105.6

46

Boise St.

105.0

47

Fresno St.

104.9

48

Vanderbilt

104.6

49

Central Florida

104.4

50

Tennessee

104.2

51

Cincinnati

103.8

52

North Carolina

103.6

53

Ball St.

103.5

54

East Carolina

103.2

55

Northern Illinois

102.6

56

Boston College

102.3

57

Marshall

102.0

58

Illinois

101.7

59

Maryland

101.5

60

Toledo

101.3

61

Syracuse

100.5

62

West Virginia

100.3

63

Bowling Green

100.3

64

Iowa St.

100.1

65

Pittsburgh

99.8

66

Rutgers

99.6

67

Kentucky

99.5

68

Arkansas

99.3

69

Minnesota

98.8

70

Houston

97.6

71

North Carolina St.

97.0

72

Ohio

97.0

73

San Jose St.

96.6

74

Wake Forest

95.7

75

Western Kentucky

95.7

76

Louisiana–Lafayette

95.6

77

Duke

95.1

78

Colorado St.

95.1

79

Navy

95.0

80

Rice

94.8

81

Buffalo

94.3

82

North Texas

93.9

83

California

92.8

84

Wyoming

92.5

85

Memphis

92.3

86

S M U

92.2

87

Virginia

92.0

88

San Diego St.

92.0

89

Arkansas St.

91.7

90

Tulsa

90.1

91

Kent St.

90.0

92

Purdue

89.9

93

Colorado

89.3

94

Kansas

89.2

95

Florida Atlantic

89.2

96

Nevada

88.0

97

Connecticut

87.7

98

Middle Tennessee

87.5

99

U N L V

87.0

100

Army

86.9

101

South Alabama

86.9

102

South Florida

86.8

103

U T S A

86.5

104

Tulane

86.5

105

Louisiana–Monroe

86.2

106

Troy

85.1

107

Hawaii

84.6

108

U A B

83.7

109

Texas St.

83.2

110

Temple

82.5

111

New Mexico

82.5

112

U T E P

82.0

113

Louisiana Tech

80.3

114

Akron

80.1

115

Central Michigan

79.3

116

Western Michigan

78.4

117

Air Force

77.4

118

Eastern Michigan

75.2

119

Massachusetts

74.2

120

Southern Miss.

73.5

121

Miami (O)

73.4

122

New Mexico St.

69.1

123

Idaho

68.4

124

Florida Int’l

68.2

125

Georgia St.

61.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

1-0

5-0

118.4

117.1

120.0

Cincinnati

0-1

3-2

104.2

103.7

103.8

Central Florida

1-0

4-1

103.4

106.8

104.4

Rutgers

1-0

4-1

99.2

102.9

99.6

Houston

1-0

4-0

95.9

105.4

97.6

S M U

0-1

1-4

93.3

95.1

92.2

Memphis

0-1

1-3

91.3

97.3

92.3

South Florida

1-0

1-4

87.7

82.1

86.8

Connecticut

0-0

0-4

87.6

83.4

87.7

Temple

0-2

0-5

83.6

83.4

82.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

96.5

97.7

96.7

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Clemson

3-0

5-0

123.2

124.2

124.7

Florida St.

3-0

5-0

123.0

127.5

124.7

Syracuse

0-1

2-3

101.3

99.1

100.5

Boston College

1-1

3-2

101.0

100.9

102.3

Maryland

0-1

4-1

99.2

104.2

101.5

North Carolina St.

0-2

3-2

96.0

101.2

97.0

Wake Forest

1-2

3-3

95.8

99.0

95.7

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami

1-0

5-0

118.3

119.4

119.4

Virginia Tech

2-0

5-1

111.3

112.4

111.4

Georgia Tech

2-2

3-2

111.3

110.2

111.1

North Carolina

0-2

1-4

103.4

105.1

103.6

Pittsburgh

2-1

3-1

100.3

99.1

99.8

Duke

0-2

3-2

96.5

96.5

95.1

Virginia

0-1

2-3

92.0

94.1

92.0

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.2

106.6

105.6

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baylor

1-0

4-0

122.7

114.4

123.8

Oklahoma

2-0

5-0

118.5

114.3

118.5

Oklahoma St.

1-1

4-1

117.4

107.3

116.9

Texas

2-0

3-2

115.1

105.2

113.5

T C U

0-2

2-3

113.6

110.2

114.5

Texas Tech

2-0

5-0

111.5

109.8

111.4

Kansas St.

0-2

2-3

109.9

102.2

109.2

West Virginia

1-2

3-3

101.7

94.3

100.3

Iowa St.

0-1

1-3

101.0

91.9

100.1

Kansas

0-1

2-2

90.5

87.7

89.2

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

110.2

103.7

109.7

 

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

2-0

6-0

122.3

120.3

122.6

Wisconsin

1-1

3-2

116.4

116.9

116.7

Penn St.

0-1

3-2

107.7

110.4

107.0

Indiana

1-0

3-2

105.8

109.8

106.0

Illinois

0-1

3-2

101.5

104.2

101.7

Purdue

0-1

1-4

92.5

89.4

89.9

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

1-0

4-1

115.0

115.4

113.8

Michigan

1-0

5-0

114.8

113.4

114.2

Northwestern

0-1

4-1

113.5

110.9

113.9

Nebraska

1-0

4-1

112.8

111.3

111.7

Iowa

1-1

4-2

105.9

105.2

106.3

Minnesota

0-2

4-2

99.8

98.9

98.8

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

109.0

108.8

108.6

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

East Carolina

2-0

4-1

102.1

104.2

103.2

Marshall

1-0

3-2

99.7

104.3

102.0

Florida Atlantic

1-3

2-4

88.3

89.6

89.2

Middle Tennessee

1-1

3-3

86.8

92.1

87.5

U A B

0-1

1-4

84.1

84.8

83.7

Southern Miss.

0-1

0-5

74.3

73.7

73.5

Florida Int’l

1-0

1-4

68.3

70.5

68.2

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Rice

2-0

3-2

94.7

97.3

94.8

North Texas

0-1

2-3

92.8

94.6

93.9

Tulsa

0-1

1-4

91.4

88.5

90.1

U T S A

1-1

2-4

86.6

88.6

86.5

Tulane

2-0

4-2

85.9

89.9

86.5

U T E P

0-2

1-4

82.4

86.6

82.0

Louisiana Tech

1-1

2-4

80.9

83.3

80.3

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.0

89.1

87.2

 

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Notre Dame

 

4-2

114.0

111.4

112.3

B Y U

 

3-2

110.7

109.5

111.7

Navy

 

3-1

95.1

97.5

95.0

Army

 

2-4

85.1

91.6

86.9

New Mexico St.

 

0-6

69.5

72.9

69.1

Idaho

 

1-5

68.9

74.8

68.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

90.6

93.0

90.6

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

3-0

5-1

99.3

100.3

100.3

Ohio

1-0

4-1

95.6

99.5

97.0

Buffalo

1-0

3-2

93.5

94.1

94.3

Kent St.

1-2

2-4

89.3

91.6

90.0

Akron

0-2

1-5

79.8

83.6

80.1

Miami (O)

0-1

0-5

75.1

78.0

73.4

Massachusetts

0-1

0-5

73.8

81.7

74.2

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Northern Illinois

1-0

5-0

102.3

103.7

102.6

Ball St.

2-0

5-1

101.8

105.8

103.5

Toledo

2-1

3-3

100.2

101.7

101.3

Central Michigan

1-1

2-4

80.2

82.8

79.3

Western Michigan

0-2

0-6

77.7

78.4

78.4

Eastern Michigan

0-2

1-4

76.1

79.6

75.2

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

88.1

90.8

88.4

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Utah St.

2-0

3-3

104.9

101.8

106.2

Boise St.

1-1

3-2

103.5

98.1

105.0

Colorado St.

0-0

2-3

94.2

94.6

95.1

Wyoming

1-0

3-2

90.5

92.4

92.5

New Mexico

0-1

2-3

82.1

87.5

82.5

Air Force

0-4

1-5

77.4

81.1

77.4

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

2-0

5-0

104.6

103.8

104.9

San Jose St.

1-1

2-3

96.0

91.9

96.6

San Diego St.

1-0

2-3

92.1

90.2

92.0

Nevada

2-1

3-3

87.6

90.5

88.0

U N L V

1-0

3-2

86.3

89.7

87.0

Hawaii

0-3

0-5

84.1

83.8

84.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

91.9

92.1

92.7

 

 

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon

2-0

5-0

134.2

130.8

135.4

Stanford

3-0

5-0

127.7

119.1

126.8

Washington

1-1

4-1

123.9

119.2

124.0

Oregon St.

2-0

4-1

114.2

105.8

112.2

Washington St.

2-1

4-2

105.7

106.5

106.5

California

0-2

1-4

94.4

90.1

92.8

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

U C L A

1-0

4-0

118.1

112.5

117.1

Arizona

0-1

3-1

117.5

112.4

116.1

Arizona St.

1-1

3-2

116.7

116.8

116.4

U S C

0-2

3-2

110.8

108.2

110.3

Utah

0-2

3-2

105.5

104.7

105.6

Colorado

0-2

2-2

91.2

93.9

89.3

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.3

110.0

112.7

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia

3-0

4-1

119.0

116.9

119.0

Florida

3-0

4-1

118.8

116.1

117.6

Missouri

1-0

5-0

118.3

115.9

117.6

South Carolina

2-1

4-1

117.1

114.4

115.6

Vanderbilt

0-3

3-3

105.5

102.9

104.6

Tennessee

0-2

3-3

104.9

104.5

104.2

Kentucky

0-2

1-4

100.4

101.1

99.5

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

2-0

5-0

133.0

126.7

134.9

L S U

2-1

5-1

123.9

122.6

125.1

Texas A&M

1-1

4-1

121.6

118.7

121.2

Ole Miss

1-2

3-2

119.7

115.7

119.3

Auburn

2-1

4-1

110.2

109.3

109.9

Mississippi St.

0-2

2-3

107.9

104.5

107.6

Arkansas

0-2

3-3

100.2

104.3

99.3

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.3

112.4

114.0

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana–Lafayette

1-0

3-2

95.6

96.9

95.6

Western Kentucky

1-1

4-2

94.7

96.7

95.7

Arkansas St.

1-0

2-3

91.9

87.8

91.7

Louisiana–Monroe

0-1

2-4

86.7

85.6

86.2

South Alabama

1-1

2-3

85.9

89.6

86.9

Troy

1-1

3-3

83.9

85.6

85.1

Texas St.

0-1

3-2

82.8

89.0

83.2

Georgia St.

0-0

0-5

60.1

69.3

61.5

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

85.2

87.6

85.7

 

 

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Southern

 

3-2

83.6

86.0

90.7

Old Dominion

 

4-2

83.5

84.3

90.5

Appalachian St.

 

1-4

76.6

75.5

83.7

Charlotte

 

4-2

59.4

64.0

66.5

           
Not figured in regular averages to 100      

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Date:

October 10-12, 2013

   

 

 

 

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Air Force San Diego St.

-11.7

-6.1

-7.6

Louisville Rutgers

22.2

17.2

23.4

U S C Arizona

-3.7

-1.2

-2.8

Cincinnati Temple

23.6

23.3

24.3

Georgia Missouri

3.7

4.0

4.4

Texas (a) Oklahoma

-3.4

-9.1

-5.0

Texas Tech Iowa St.

13.5

20.9

14.3

Virginia Tech Pittsburgh

14.0

16.3

14.6

Connecticut South Florida

2.9

4.3

3.9

Michigan St. Indiana

12.2

8.6

10.8

Houston Memphis

7.6

11.1

8.3

Army Eastern Michigan

12.0

15.0

14.7

Purdue Nebraska

-17.3

-18.9

-18.8

T C U Kansas

26.1

25.5

28.3

Arkansas South Carolina

-13.9

-7.1

-13.3

Duke Navy

3.9

1.5

2.6

Ohio Central Michigan

17.9

19.2

20.2

Western Michigan Buffalo

-13.8

-13.7

-13.9

Massachusetts Miami (O)

0.7

5.7

2.8

Ball St. Kent St.

15.5

17.2

16.5

Clemson Boston College

25.2

26.3

25.4

L S U Florida

8.1

9.5

10.5

Kansas St. Baylor

-9.8

-9.2

-11.6

Wisconsin Northwestern

5.9

9.0

5.8

Colorado St. San Jose St.

1.2

5.7

1.5