Sunday, March 27, 2022 | ||
Team | Team | Spread |
North Carolina | Saint Peter’s | 9.6 |
Kansas | Miami (Fla.) | 8.8 |
March 27, 2022
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, March 27, 2022
March 13, 2012
2012 NCAA Tournament Play-in and Second Round Game Previews
All over the country, you can feel the symptoms coming on. By Tuesday afternoon, millions of Americans will start to feel a little run down. By Thursday morning, millions will call in sick with that mysterious illness that strikes every March. Yes, March Madness Syndrome is about to hit epidemic proportions again.
Welcome back to the PiRate Ratings’ Bracketnomics. If you are unfamiliar with PiRate Bracketnomics, refer to our Bracketnomics 505, 2012 edition at: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/03/10/bracketnomics-505-2012-edition/
There is a lot to cover, so let’s get right to it.
1. Which teams satisfy all the mechanical criteria?
A. Outscored their opponents by 8 or more points per game
B. FG% Differential of 7.5% or better
C. Outrebounded their opponents by 5 or more per game
D. Either a positive turnover margin if they outrebounded their opponents by 3 or more; a turnover margin of +3 or more, if they outrebounded their opponents by less than 3; or a turnover margin of +5 if they did not outrebound their opponents.
E. 7.5 or more steals per game
F. An R+T Rating of 5 or more
G. A strength of schedule better than .5500 (from CBS Sportsline)
H. A road+neutral court W-L% of 70% or better.
Answer—Five teams this year match all the criteria above, meaning they have statistical resumes similar to the average National Champions of the past 50 years. These five are (in alphabetical order): Georgetown, Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio State, and Wichita State.
2. Which teams fail to meet any of the mechanical criteria?
Answer—Eight teams fail to satisfy any of the minimal mechanical criteria. It should come as no surprise that Western Kentucky, with a losing record, misses the boat. Colorado State and Long Island are not powerhouses as well. However, how about these five teams? Michigan, Notre Dame, Temple, Vanderbilt, and Xavier fail to meet any of the minimum requirements in any of the criteria (not counting strength of schedule).
3. Which teams score the highest point totals?
Answer—Nine teams rate at 20 or more points, while a dozen scored 18.3 or higher. All of the national champions since Kansas in 1988 have scored 18.3 or higher using the 2012 criteria. Since 2000, the average score for the National Champion has been 27.7, as shown below.
2011 UConn—18.3
2010 Duke—29.2
2009 North Carolina—31.8
2008 Kansas—34.9
2007 Florida—29.2
2006 Florida—25.2
2005 North Carolina—31.7
2004 Connecticut—29.5
2003 Syracuse—18.8
2002 Maryland—24.6
2001 Duke—30.2
2000 Michigan State—29.4
12 Champion Avg. = 27.7
The nine teams with scores in excess of 20 are: Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio State, Syracuse, and Wichita State.
The three teams between 18.3 and 20 are: Duke, Georgetown, and Missouri.
Three teams come in with ratings above the 12-year average. Kentucky, North Carolina, and Ohio State are the top three.
We strongly believe that one of these 12 teams will be your 2012 National Champion, with the top three having the best chance of all.
Here is a list of all 68 teams with their PiRate technical scores:
Team |
Pts |
FG% Diff |
Reb |
TO |
R+T |
SOS |
Rd W-L |
Total |
North Carolina |
7.6 |
3.40 |
6.5 |
0.8 |
5.63 |
4.26 |
3 |
31.1 |
Kentucky |
8.9 |
5.75 |
4.3 |
0.3 |
3.62 |
1.84 |
4.5 |
29.1 |
Ohio St. |
7.9 |
3.85 |
4.4 |
1.7 |
5.17 |
3.45 |
1.5 |
28.0 |
Michigan St. |
6.5 |
4.90 |
4.8 |
0.0 |
3.74 |
6.05 |
1.5 |
27.4 |
Kansas |
6.6 |
5.10 |
3.5 |
0.4 |
3.29 |
3.69 |
1.5 |
24.0 |
Wichita St. |
7.7 |
4.65 |
4.0 |
0.4 |
3.52 |
0.28 |
3 |
23.5 |
Syracuse |
7.1 |
4.00 |
-0.8 |
3.1 |
3.14 |
2.43 |
4 |
22.9 |
Baylor |
5.4 |
3.15 |
2.9 |
0.3 |
2.82 |
3.62 |
4 |
22.1 |
New Mexico |
7.1 |
4.15 |
4.0 |
0.5 |
3.71 |
-1.19 |
3 |
21.2 |
Duke |
4.7 |
1.35 |
1.6 |
0.4 |
1.96 |
5.38 |
4.5 |
19.9 |
Missouri |
7.3 |
3.15 |
0.4 |
2.1 |
2.90 |
-0.76 |
4 |
19.1 |
Georgetown |
5.0 |
3.80 |
3.4 |
0.2 |
2.97 |
3.10 |
0 |
18.4 |
Memphis |
6.1 |
5.50 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
1.86 |
2.66 |
0.5 |
18.2 |
Wisconsin |
5.5 |
2.05 |
1.4 |
1.0 |
2.30 |
2.95 |
2 |
17.2 |
Saint Mary’s |
6.3 |
2.40 |
4.3 |
0.2 |
3.63 |
-2.33 |
2.5 |
17.0 |
BYU |
5.8 |
2.80 |
2.6 |
1.3 |
3.65 |
-2.28 |
2.5 |
16.3 |
Gonzaga |
5.4 |
2.95 |
3.9 |
-0.2 |
3.00 |
-1.06 |
2 |
16.0 |
New Mexico St. |
5.3 |
2.35 |
5.2 |
0.0 |
3.98 |
-2.91 |
2 |
15.8 |
Louisville |
3.8 |
2.30 |
1.1 |
0.6 |
2.06 |
3.83 |
2 |
15.7 |
Marquette |
4.9 |
2.65 |
-0.2 |
1.7 |
2.22 |
2.76 |
1.5 |
15.5 |
Creighton |
5.3 |
3.55 |
3.7 |
-1.0 |
1.91 |
-2.32 |
4 |
15.1 |
UNLV |
5.4 |
2.65 |
2.0 |
0.9 |
2.81 |
1.13 |
0 |
14.8 |
Florida St. |
3.7 |
3.85 |
2.0 |
-0.6 |
1.44 |
3.79 |
0.5 |
14.8 |
Indiana |
5.9 |
3.30 |
1.4 |
0.4 |
1.82 |
1.90 |
0 |
14.7 |
St. Louis |
5.9 |
2.05 |
1.0 |
1.9 |
2.98 |
-1.47 |
2 |
14.2 |
Murray St. |
6.5 |
2.80 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
2.59 |
-5.12 |
5 |
14.1 |
San Diego St. |
4.0 |
2.80 |
2.9 |
0.2 |
2.51 |
0.16 |
1.5 |
14.0 |
Kansas St. |
3.9 |
1.75 |
2.9 |
0.9 |
3.27 |
0.33 |
1 |
14.0 |
Florida |
5.2 |
1.40 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
2.37 |
2.37 |
0 |
13.6 |
West Va. |
2.7 |
-0.25 |
4.1 |
0.3 |
3.53 |
2.74 |
0 |
13.1 |
Vanderbilt |
4.0 |
2.05 |
0.7 |
-0.2 |
0.72 |
3.75 |
2 |
12.9 |
Virginia |
4.7 |
3.20 |
1.9 |
0.8 |
2.52 |
-1.28 |
1 |
12.8 |
N. Car. St. |
2.7 |
2.25 |
2.6 |
-0.2 |
2.13 |
2.21 |
1 |
12.7 |
Alabama |
3.4 |
3.20 |
1.6 |
0.4 |
2.00 |
1.85 |
0 |
12.4 |
Belmont |
7.1 |
3.00 |
1.8 |
1.1 |
2.80 |
-6.41 |
2.5 |
11.8 |
Southern Miss. |
3.3 |
-1.30 |
2.8 |
1.7 |
3.90 |
0.63 |
0.5 |
11.5 |
Harvard |
5.3 |
3.05 |
2.7 |
0.0 |
2.33 |
-6.07 |
4 |
11.4 |
Davidson |
5.3 |
1.10 |
4.0 |
0.4 |
3.46 |
-5.53 |
2.5 |
11.2 |
Long Beach St. |
5.2 |
2.50 |
1.7 |
1.1 |
2.79 |
-3.22 |
1 |
11.1 |
Iona |
5.3 |
2.70 |
0.6 |
1.8 |
2.66 |
-4.55 |
2.5 |
11.0 |
Connecticut |
2.4 |
3.55 |
1.9 |
-0.8 |
0.94 |
4.95 |
-2 |
10.8 |
California |
5.0 |
3.40 |
2.6 |
0.4 |
2.48 |
-1.33 |
-2 |
10.5 |
Temple |
3.1 |
1.75 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
1.45 |
0.39 |
2 |
9.7 |
Texas |
3.2 |
1.10 |
1.8 |
0.6 |
2.27 |
2.74 |
-2 |
9.6 |
Cincinnati |
3.7 |
0.40 |
0.1 |
1.8 |
2.41 |
-0.52 |
1.5 |
9.3 |
Purdue |
3.1 |
-0.25 |
-0.4 |
2.1 |
2.25 |
1.98 |
0 |
8.8 |
Michigan |
2.6 |
1.50 |
-0.6 |
0.9 |
0.82 |
3.36 |
0 |
8.5 |
Iowa St. |
3.3 |
0.70 |
2.8 |
-0.3 |
2.02 |
1.13 |
-2 |
7.6 |
V C U |
4.3 |
-0.65 |
-0.9 |
3.3 |
3.38 |
-5.02 |
3 |
7.4 |
S. Dakota St. |
5.4 |
1.00 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
2.70 |
-5.95 |
1.5 |
7.3 |
Colorado |
2.6 |
1.95 |
1.9 |
-0.1 |
1.62 |
-0.91 |
0 |
7.0 |
Ohio |
4.2 |
0.85 |
0.1 |
2.3 |
2.99 |
-5.32 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
Lamar |
4.3 |
0.80 |
3.1 |
1.2 |
3.85 |
-7.18 |
0.5 |
6.5 |
St. Bonaventure |
2.9 |
2.10 |
3.3 |
-0.9 |
1.84 |
-3.03 |
0 |
6.2 |
Xavier |
1.7 |
2.75 |
1.2 |
0.0 |
1.29 |
1.32 |
-2 |
6.2 |
Colorado St. |
1.3 |
2.00 |
0.6 |
-0.2 |
0.64 |
3.76 |
-2 |
6.1 |
Lehigh |
5.6 |
1.80 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
2.95 |
-9.91 |
2.5 |
5.7 |
S. Florida |
1.2 |
2.40 |
2.2 |
-1.3 |
0.72 |
1.90 |
-2 |
5.1 |
UNC-Asheville |
5.0 |
2.00 |
0.8 |
1.3 |
2.49 |
-6.95 |
0.5 |
5.1 |
Montana |
4.5 |
3.05 |
-0.3 |
1.2 |
1.52 |
-6.93 |
2 |
5.0 |
Notre Dame |
2.5 |
1.00 |
-0.3 |
0.4 |
0.60 |
1.14 |
-2 |
3.3 |
Detroit |
2.6 |
0.75 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
2.69 |
-5.53 |
0 |
3.1 |
Loyola (MD) |
1.9 |
0.00 |
2.2 |
0.4 |
2.44 |
-7.10 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
Vermont |
3.4 |
1.75 |
2.2 |
0.2 |
2.17 |
-9.11 |
1.5 |
2.1 |
Norfolk St. |
1.5 |
1.90 |
1.2 |
-0.6 |
0.82 |
-10.75 |
3 |
-2.9 |
Long Island |
2.3 |
1.50 |
1.5 |
-1.2 |
0.34 |
-8.36 |
0.5 |
-3.4 |
Western Kentucky |
-1.5 |
-1.70 |
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
0.14 |
-4.31 |
-2 |
-9.7 |
Miss. Valley |
-0.2 |
-1.75 |
0.1 |
0.9 |
1.56 |
-10.96 |
0 |
-10.4 |
|
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Here is the same list in Alphabetical Order:
Team |
Pts |
FG% Diff |
Reb |
TO |
R+T |
SOS |
Rd W-L |
Total |
Alabama |
3.4 |
3.20 |
1.6 |
0.4 |
2.00 |
1.85 |
0 |
12.4 |
Baylor |
5.4 |
3.15 |
2.9 |
0.3 |
2.82 |
3.62 |
4 |
22.1 |
Belmont |
7.1 |
3.00 |
1.8 |
1.1 |
2.80 |
-6.41 |
2.5 |
11.8 |
BYU |
5.8 |
2.80 |
2.6 |
1.3 |
3.65 |
-2.28 |
2.5 |
16.3 |
California |
5.0 |
3.40 |
2.6 |
0.4 |
2.48 |
-1.33 |
-2 |
10.5 |
Cincinnati |
3.7 |
0.40 |
0.1 |
1.8 |
2.41 |
-0.52 |
1.5 |
9.3 |
Colorado |
2.6 |
1.95 |
1.9 |
-0.1 |
1.62 |
-0.91 |
0 |
7.0 |
Colorado St. |
1.3 |
2.00 |
0.6 |
-0.2 |
0.64 |
3.76 |
-2 |
6.1 |
Connecticut |
2.4 |
3.55 |
1.9 |
-0.8 |
0.94 |
4.95 |
-2 |
10.8 |
Creighton |
5.3 |
3.55 |
3.7 |
-1.0 |
1.91 |
-2.32 |
4 |
15.1 |
Davidson |
5.3 |
1.10 |
4.0 |
0.4 |
3.46 |
-5.53 |
2.5 |
11.2 |
Detroit |
2.6 |
0.75 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
2.69 |
-5.53 |
0 |
3.1 |
Duke |
4.7 |
1.35 |
1.6 |
0.4 |
1.96 |
5.38 |
4.5 |
19.9 |
Florida |
5.2 |
1.40 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
2.37 |
2.37 |
0 |
13.6 |
Florida St. |
3.7 |
3.85 |
2.0 |
-0.6 |
1.44 |
3.79 |
0.5 |
14.8 |
Georgetown |
5.0 |
3.80 |
3.4 |
0.2 |
2.97 |
3.10 |
0 |
18.4 |
Gonzaga |
5.4 |
2.95 |
3.9 |
-0.2 |
3.00 |
-1.06 |
2 |
16.0 |
Harvard |
5.3 |
3.05 |
2.7 |
0.0 |
2.33 |
-6.07 |
4 |
11.4 |
Indiana |
5.9 |
3.30 |
1.4 |
0.4 |
1.82 |
1.90 |
0 |
14.7 |
Iona |
5.3 |
2.70 |
0.6 |
1.8 |
2.66 |
-4.55 |
2.5 |
11.0 |
Iowa St. |
3.3 |
0.70 |
2.8 |
-0.3 |
2.02 |
1.13 |
-2 |
7.6 |
Kansas |
6.6 |
5.10 |
3.5 |
0.4 |
3.29 |
3.69 |
1.5 |
24.0 |
Kansas St. |
3.9 |
1.75 |
2.9 |
0.9 |
3.27 |
0.33 |
1 |
14.0 |
Kentucky |
8.9 |
5.75 |
4.3 |
0.3 |
3.62 |
1.84 |
4.5 |
29.1 |
Lamar |
4.3 |
0.80 |
3.1 |
1.2 |
3.85 |
-7.18 |
0.5 |
6.5 |
Lehigh |
5.6 |
1.80 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
2.95 |
-9.91 |
2.5 |
5.7 |
Long Beach St. |
5.2 |
2.50 |
1.7 |
1.1 |
2.79 |
-3.22 |
1 |
11.1 |
Long Island |
2.3 |
1.50 |
1.5 |
-1.2 |
0.34 |
-8.36 |
0.5 |
-3.4 |
Louisville |
3.8 |
2.30 |
1.1 |
0.6 |
2.06 |
3.83 |
2 |
15.7 |
Loyola (MD) |
1.9 |
0.00 |
2.2 |
0.4 |
2.44 |
-7.10 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
Marquette |
4.9 |
2.65 |
-0.2 |
1.7 |
2.22 |
2.76 |
1.5 |
15.5 |
Memphis |
6.1 |
5.50 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
1.86 |
2.66 |
0.5 |
18.2 |
Michigan |
2.6 |
1.50 |
-0.6 |
0.9 |
0.82 |
3.36 |
0 |
8.5 |
Michigan St. |
6.5 |
4.90 |
4.8 |
0.0 |
3.74 |
6.05 |
1.5 |
27.4 |
Miss. Valley |
-0.2 |
-1.75 |
0.1 |
0.9 |
1.56 |
-10.96 |
0 |
-10.4 |
Missouri |
7.3 |
3.15 |
0.4 |
2.1 |
2.90 |
-0.76 |
4 |
19.1 |
Montana |
4.5 |
3.05 |
-0.3 |
1.2 |
1.52 |
-6.93 |
2 |
5.0 |
Murray St. |
6.5 |
2.80 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
2.59 |
-5.12 |
5 |
14.1 |
N. Car. St. |
2.7 |
2.25 |
2.6 |
-0.2 |
2.13 |
2.21 |
1 |
12.7 |
New Mexico |
7.1 |
4.15 |
4.0 |
0.5 |
3.71 |
-1.19 |
3 |
21.2 |
New Mexico St. |
5.3 |
2.35 |
5.2 |
0.0 |
3.98 |
-2.91 |
2 |
15.8 |
Norfolk St. |
1.5 |
1.90 |
1.2 |
-0.6 |
0.82 |
-10.75 |
3 |
-2.9 |
North Carolina |
7.6 |
3.40 |
6.5 |
0.8 |
5.63 |
4.26 |
3 |
31.1 |
Notre Dame |
2.5 |
1.00 |
-0.3 |
0.4 |
0.60 |
1.14 |
-2 |
3.3 |
Ohio |
4.2 |
0.85 |
0.1 |
2.3 |
2.99 |
-5.32 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
Ohio St. |
7.9 |
3.85 |
4.4 |
1.7 |
5.17 |
3.45 |
1.5 |
28.0 |
Purdue |
3.1 |
-0.25 |
-0.4 |
2.1 |
2.25 |
1.98 |
0 |
8.8 |
S. Dakota St. |
5.4 |
1.00 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
2.70 |
-5.95 |
1.5 |
7.3 |
S. Florida |
1.2 |
2.40 |
2.2 |
-1.3 |
0.72 |
1.90 |
-2 |
5.1 |
Saint Mary’s |
6.3 |
2.40 |
4.3 |
0.2 |
3.63 |
-2.33 |
2.5 |
17.0 |
San Diego St. |
4.0 |
2.80 |
2.9 |
0.2 |
2.51 |
0.16 |
1.5 |
14.0 |
Southern Miss. |
3.3 |
-1.30 |
2.8 |
1.7 |
3.90 |
0.63 |
0.5 |
11.5 |
St. Bonaventure |
2.9 |
2.10 |
3.3 |
-0.9 |
1.84 |
-3.03 |
0 |
6.2 |
St. Louis |
5.9 |
2.05 |
1.0 |
1.9 |
2.98 |
-1.47 |
2 |
14.2 |
Syracuse |
7.1 |
4.00 |
-0.8 |
3.1 |
3.14 |
2.43 |
4 |
22.9 |
Temple |
3.1 |
1.75 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
1.45 |
0.39 |
2 |
9.7 |
Texas |
3.2 |
1.10 |
1.8 |
0.6 |
2.27 |
2.74 |
-2 |
9.6 |
UNC-Asheville |
5.0 |
2.00 |
0.8 |
1.3 |
2.49 |
-6.95 |
0.5 |
5.1 |
UNLV |
5.4 |
2.65 |
2.0 |
0.9 |
2.81 |
1.13 |
0 |
14.8 |
V C U |
4.3 |
-0.65 |
-0.9 |
3.3 |
3.38 |
-5.02 |
3 |
7.4 |
Vanderbilt |
4.0 |
2.05 |
0.7 |
-0.2 |
0.72 |
3.75 |
2 |
12.9 |
Vermont |
3.4 |
1.75 |
2.2 |
0.2 |
2.17 |
-9.11 |
1.5 |
2.1 |
Virginia |
4.7 |
3.20 |
1.9 |
0.8 |
2.52 |
-1.28 |
1 |
12.8 |
West Va. |
2.7 |
-0.25 |
4.1 |
0.3 |
3.53 |
2.74 |
0 |
13.1 |
Western Kentucky |
-1.5 |
-1.70 |
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
0.14 |
-4.31 |
-2 |
-9.7 |
Wichita St. |
7.7 |
4.65 |
4.0 |
0.4 |
3.52 |
0.28 |
3 |
23.5 |
Wisconsin |
5.5 |
2.05 |
1.4 |
1.0 |
2.30 |
2.95 |
2 |
17.2 |
Xavier |
1.7 |
2.75 |
1.2 |
0.0 |
1.29 |
1.32 |
-2 |
6.2 |
All Times Eastern Daylight Time
1st Round Preview (Play-in Games)
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
6:40 PM truTV #16 Seeding
Mississippi Valley State (21-12) vs. Western Kentucky (15-18)
PiRate Criteria Score: MVSU -9.7 WKU -10.4
These are the two weakest teams in the Tournament, and they should not have been paired against each other. Both teams were outscored by their opposition. Both teams were less accurate from the field than their opponents. Western Kentucky’s schedule was about six points more difficult. So, we will go with the Hilltoppers to top MVSU in a close, low-scoring game.
Prediction: Western Kentucky 55 Mississippi Valley St. 50
9:00 PM truTV #14 Seeding
Brigham Young (25-8) vs. Iona (25-7)
PiRate Criteria Score: BYU 16.3 Iona 11.0
Following the two weakest teams in the tournament, these two do not deserve to be in the play-in. Both are talented enough to advance to the third round, but one will be eliminated.
These two teams like to move the ball and push the tempo, so this game should be interesting for the average fan.
Iona is one of three teams in the field that shot above 50% from the field, but BYU allowed just 41% against their opponents.
Prediction: BYU 82 Iona 75
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
6:40 PM truTV #16 Seeding
Lamar (23-11) vs. Vermont (23-11)
PiRate Criteria Score: Lamar 6.5 Vermont 2.1
These teams match up well, and we see another defensive struggle in Dayton Wednesday evening. Lamar is a little better defensively, but Vermont has the better offense. Lamar has been hot in the last month, and we believe Coach Pat Knight’s troops will survive.
Prediction: Lamar 67 Vermont 60
9:00 PM truTV #12 Seeding
California (24-9) vs. South Florida (20-13)
PiRate Criteria Score: Cal 10.5 USF 5.1
The so-called experts did not give much credit to the Pac-12 this year, and some even predicted one bid. Cal is not headed to the Elite Eight, but the Bears are talented enough to make the Sweet 16.
South Florida ranks dead last among the 68 teams in the Big Dance. The Bulls average just 59 points per game, but they give up just 57 points per game.
Prediction: California 64 S. Florida 58
Thursday, March 15, 2012
12:15 PM CBS—West Regional
#6 Murray State (30-1) vs. #11 Colorado State (20-11)
PiRate Criteria Score: MSU 14.1 CSU 6.1
Colorado State’s schedule on average was almost 10 points better than the schedule Murray State played, but 10 points is not enough to make up the difference between these two teams. The Racers are the best low-major team in the tournament, and they are actually the Las Vegas favorite in this game.
The Rams are one of the handful of teams that fail to meet the minimum requirements in any of the PiRate Criteria. Teams like that do not advance past the first weekend, and we do not see CSU bucking that trend.
Prediction: Murray State 74 Colorado State 65
12:40 PM truTV—East Regional
#8 Kansas State (21-10) vs. #9 Southern Mississippi (25-8)
PiRate Criteria Score: KSU 14.0 USM 11.5
Kansas State is a physical team that relies on muscle with just a touch of finesse to win. When they play a team that is soft inside, they usually win. When they play a team that can pound the ball inside, they do not fare so well.
Southern Mississippi is not physical enough inside to put a scare into the Wildcats. The Golden Eagles have troubles getting open shots inside, and this will doom them to a quick exit in the tournament.
Prediction: Kansas State 69 Southern Miss. 57
1:40 PM TBS—West Regional
#4 Louisville (26-9) vs. #13 Davidson (25-7)
PiRate Criteria Score: UL 15.7 Dav. 11.2
This game could be quite exciting. Louisville plays tenacious defense, and they have to stop the opponent’s offense, because the Cardinals’ cannot score a lot of points.
Davidson can score points—a lot of them. The Wildcats defeated Kansas in the regular season and almost knocked off Vanderbilt. Don’t be surprised if they take Pitino’s troops to the wire with a chance to win in the final minutes.
Prediction: Louisville 68 Davidson 65
2:10 PM TNT—East Regional
#4 Wisconsin (24-9) vs. #13 Montana (25-6)
PiRate Criteria Score: UW 17.2 Mont. 5.0
Wisconsin has the number one scoring defense in the nation at just under 53 points per game, while the Badgers average 11 points more per game. Opponents hit only 38.3% from the field against UW. Coach Bo Ryan employs a deliberate style of play, where his team may hold onto the ball for 30 seconds on many possessions. Opponents get frustrated and tend to rush their offense, which plays right into Wisconsin’s gameplan.
Montana has the talent to keep this game close, but we do not believe the Grizzlies can maintain their composure for 40 minutes of tranquilizer ball. UW will commit fewer than 10 turnovers and take no more than three or four ill-advised shots. Montana will force their offense a few too many times, and that will be their downfall.
Prediction: Wisconsin 65 Montana 51
2:45 PM CBS—West Regional
#3 Marquette (25-7) vs. #14 BYU or Iona
PiRate Criteria Score: Marq 15.5 BYU 16.3 or Iona 11.0
This could be a trap game. If BYU is the opponent, the Cougars have a better PiRate Criteria score than Marquette. Iona is not that much weaker than the Golden Eagles, so Marquette would have a tough game if they have to play the Gaels.
Marquette’s one big weakness is rebounding, where opponents best them by a small amount.
Prediction: BYU 74 Marquette 69 (or Marquette 69 Iona 63)
3:10 PM truTV—East Regional
#1 Syracuse (31-2) vs. #16 UNC-Asheville (24-9)
PiRate Criteria Score: Syr 22.9 UNCA 5.1
What we have here is a classic mismatch. UNC-Asheville is an offense first team. The Bulldogs surrendered 71.3 points per game and allowed 44.4% shooting from the field against teams that were on average nine points weaker than the opponents Syracuse played.
Syracuse will find little trouble scoring inside with Fab Melo being seven inches taller than the man that will guard him.
Prediction: Syracuse 84 UNCA 62
4:10 PM CBS—West Regional
#5 New Mexico (27-6) vs. #12 Long Beach State (25-8)
PiRate Criteria Score: UNM 21.2 LBSU 11.1
Long Beach State didn’t catch a break in their bracket. New Mexico is a sleeper to make it past the first weekend.
The Lobos have an excellent combination of size and speed, as well as quality depth and excellent coaching. On the other hand, the 49ers have an excellent starting five that will not be intimidated by New Mexico. LBSU played a tough schedule that included games against Kansas, Xavier, North Carolina, San Diego State, Louisville, and Kansas State.
The infamous #12 seed produced a lot of upsets in past years, and this looks like one that is possible. However, New Mexico is capable of making a run to the Final Four, and we will call for a Lobo win.
Prediction: New Mexico 76 Long Beach State 70
4:40 PM TNT—East Regional
#5 Vanderbilt (24-10) vs. #12 Harvard (26-4)
PiRate Criteria Score: VU 12.9 Harv 11.4
In the early 1980’s DePaul was a number one or two seed for three consecutive years and lost in their first tournament game (before there were 64 teams and #16 seeds). Each year, underdogs upset them in the final minutes.
Vanderbilt has endure the same history in the 21st Century, losing first round games three times in a row to Siena, Murray State, and Richmond.
Harvard may be better than the three teams that upset the Commodores in the first round. The Crimson are another dubious 12-seed looking to pull off the upset, and Tommy Amaker’s crew has the talent to pull it off.
Vanderbilt failed to meet even one of the minimal PiRate Criteria stats, although they missed by a whisker on point differential (7.9).
Harvard has no weakness. The only area where they are inferior to the Commodores is in schedule strength, where Vandy’s schedule was 10 points per game harder.
Both teams have something going against them in this game. Harvard will have not played for 12 days, while Vanderbilt will have to travel to Albuquerque three days after beating Kentucky in New Orleans, their third game in three days.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 62 Harvard 59
6:50 PM TBS—South Regional
#1 Kentucky (32-2) vs. #16 Mississippi Valley State or Western Kentucky
PiRate Criteria Score: UK 29.1 MVSU -9.7 or WKU -10.4
Kentucky’s players will begin the tournament with chips on their shoulders. They will be out for blood, at least in the first 10 minutes of this game.
Regardless of the opponent, this game will be over by the under 12:00 minute media timeout. Kentucky could double the score if Coach John Calipari left his starters in long enough.
Prediction: Kentucky 89 Mississippi Valley 60 or Kentucky 83 Western Kentucky 52
7:15 PM CBS—South Regional
#5 Wichita State (27-5) vs. #12 Virginia Commonwealth (28-6)
PiRate Criteria Score: Wich 23.5 VCU 7.4
This should be an interesting game. Wichita State has an excellent half-court game with expertise both inside and outside. Virginia Commonwealth is a full-court terror, but they cannot compete on the boards.
VCU will force a lot of turnovers and pick up a lot of steals, but Wichita State will not wilt and fall apart. The Shockers do not turn the ball over all that much, and they can dominate on the glass.
This game will come down to a test of shooting accuracy. WSU has much better shooters, and they will end any chance of the Rams making another huge run.
Prediction: Wichita State 77 Virginia Commonwealth 72
7:20 PM TNT—East Regional
#7 Gonzaga (25-6) vs. #10 West Virginia (19-13)
PiRate Criteria Score: Gonz. 16.0 WVU 13.1
The field of 64 or second round has several interesting games this year, and this will definitely be one of them. Gonzaga is the second best team from the West this year, but the Bulldogs have a few holes. They can be stopped by physical inside teams or teams that play an excellent zone defense.
West Virginia has a rebuilding team this year, but Coach Bob Huggins has produced the maximum out of a young squad; defense has gotten the job done.
We saw two years ago that the Mountaineers could play an awesome zone defense to upset Kentucky. Expect a combination of zone and sagging man-to-man, and WVU should control the inside game.
As for Gonzaga, the Bulldogs have a couple of outside shooters that can get hot and shoot an opponent out of the gym. They can run the fast break and get a dozen “cheap points” in a game.
We believe this is close to a 50-50 toss-up game.
Prediction: Gonzaga 72 West Virginia 70
7:27 PM truTV—South Regional
#3 Baylor (27-7) vs. #14 South Dakota State (27-7)
PiRate Criteria Score: Bay 22.1 SDSU 7.3
The Bears are a dark horse team. Three Big 12 teams could advance deep into the tournament, and Baylor is one of them. This is a team capable of going on big runs, outscoring opponents 12-2 in a five-minute stretch.
South Dakota State is not a pushover. The Jackrabbits can pass, shoot, and rebound. Their weakness is on the defensive side, and Baylor will be able to exploit it for a couple of big runs.
Prediction: Baylor 74 South Dakota State 60
9:20 PM TBS—South Regional
#8 Iowa State (22-10) vs. Connecticut (20-13)
PiRate Criteria Score: ISU 7.6 UConn 10.8
Neither team is going to advance to the Sweet 16, as the winner will be fodder for Kentucky on Saturday.
Iowa State was the surprise of the Big 12 under first year coach Fred Hoiberg. Royce White is a player to watch; he can do it all.
Connecticut has some rough edges, but the Huskies have the parts to compete with the Kentucky’s and Syracuse’s of the world. However, this is not last year’s team, and nobody on the roster can carry them for six games.
Prediction: Connecticut 68 Iowa State 63
9:45 PM CBS—South Regional
#4 Indiana (25-8) vs. #13 New Mexico State (26-9)
PiRate Criteria Score: IU 14.7 NMSU 15.8
We smell an upset here. New Mexico State dominates on the glass, and the Aggies should neutralize Indiana post man Cody Zeller. NMSU has been turnover prone at times this year, but Indiana has not been a ball-hawking team this year.
Both teams shoot the ball well, and both are fairly good on defense. What concerns us is that Indiana relies too much on the three-point shot, and in unfamiliar gyms, outside shooting can be a problem in the first half.
Prediction: New Mexico State 71 Indiana 66
9:50 PM TNT—East Regional
#2 Ohio State (27-7) vs. #15 Loyola (Md) (24-8)
PiRate Criteria Score: OSU 28.0 Loy 2.3
How can we entice you to watch this game? How about this tidbit of information? Loyola played Kentucky in Lexington in December. They lost by 24 points, but until the end of the first half, the Greyhounds were within a couple of points.
Ohio State will eventually run the Greyhounds out of the gym, but we believe this game could be exciting for 10-15 minutes.
Prediction: Ohio State 76 Loyola (Md) 54
9:57 PM truTV—South Regional
#6 U N L V (26-8) vs. #11 Colorado (23-11)
PiRate Criteria Score: UNLV 14.8 CU 7.0
Here is another excellent study of contrasts. UNLV passes the ball like a team from the 1980’s. The Runnin’ Rebels are not that far away from being considered an Elite 8 contender. They shoot, rebound, and play good defense.
Colorado won the Pac-12 Tournament with a swarming defense and an ability to hit the glass. The Buffs do not have enough offense to make a long stay this year.
Prediction: UNLV 70 Colorado 59
Friday, March 16, 2012
12:15 PM CBS—East Regional
#6 Cincinnati (24-10) vs. #11 Texas (20-13)
PiRate Criteria Score: Cinti 9.3 UT 9.6
According to the PiRate Criteria score, this game should be close and could go to overtime.
Unlike Bearcat teams of yore, this Cincinnati squad is not an overpowering inside monster. UC relies on tenacious defense and a strong perimeter game with one good inside presence in Yancy Gates. Teams have difficulty matching the Bearcats’ 4-out, 1-in offense.
Texas just barely qualified as an at-large in what is a rebuilding process for Coach Rick Barnes. The Longhorns are almost a one-man team. If J’Covan Brown does not score 20 points, the burnt orange don’t win.
Flip a coin for this one; it could come down to the last shot of the game.
Prediction: Cincinnati 69 Texas 68
12:40 PM truTV—Midwest Regional
#6 San Diego State (26-7) vs. #11 North Carolina State (22-12)
PiRate Criteria Score: SDSU 14.0 NCSU 12.7
Here is yet another interesting game that should be close. The Aztecs were not expected to return to the Dance for the second consecutive year, but Coach Steve Fisher reloaded rather than rebuilt. SDSU’s starting five is high quality similar to the talent the Wolf Pack face in the ACC. The Aztec bench is lacking, and teams can wear their starters down.
North Carolina State has better depth, but the starting five is not as strong as the Aztec starting five. Defense can be a problem at times, and one spurt allowed in a close game can be fatal.
Because the timeouts are longer in the NCAA Tournament, we believe fatigue will not be a major problem in this game, and SDSU will benefit from one big spurt.
Prediction: San Diego State 75 North Carolina State 68
1:40 PM TBS—Midwest Regional
# 8 Creighton (28-5) vs. #9 Alabama (21-11)
PiRate Criteria Score: Crei. 15.1 Ala. 12.4
Here is another great study in contrasts. Creighton is all about offense, while Alabama is all about defense.
The Blue Jays have the best offensive threat in the tournament in Doug McDermott, the 21st Century Larry Bird.
Crimson Tide coach Anthony Grant suspended four players in February, and eventually reinstated three of the quartet. Since that time, ‘Bama lost four of their last 10 games, following a 15-7 start. The Tide never fully recovered, and they enter this tournament playing more like a team that should be in the NIT.
Prediction: Creighton 70 Alabama 62
2:10 PM TNT—West Regional
#7 Florida (23-10) vs. #10 Virginia (22-9)
PiRate Criteria Score: Fla. 13.6 Virginia 12.8
Yet another “yin-yang” game, Florida has the shooters, and Virginia has the defenders. Florida is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation, while Virginia is one of the best three-point defensive teams.
Both teams enter the tournament with injury issues. Virginia may only be able to use two off the bench, but the Cavaliers will slow the game down and rely on the longer timeouts to keep from getting winded.
Florida coach Billy Donovan will try to speed up the pace and press. If the Cavs can handle the Gator pressure, UVa will win. If not, then the Gator chomp will be seen in Omaha around 3:00 PM local time.
Prediction: Florida 62 Virginia 56
2:45 PM CBS—East Regional
#3 Florida State (24-9) vs. #14 St. Bonaventure (20-11)
PiRate Criteria Score: FSU 14.8 SBU 6.2
Not many, if any, teams have defeated North Carolina and Duke two times each in a year where both powers were top 10 teams. The Seminoles can defend and rebound. They have a tendency to turn the ball over a bit too much, and they are not the most fluent team on offense.
St. Bonaventure is a smaller mirror of FSU. They defend well, rebound tenaciously, and turn the ball over too much. Their offense tends to stall at times.
We’ll go with the bigger fish in this game.
Prediction: Florida State 65 St. Bonaventure 55
3:10 PM truTV—Midwest Regional
#3 Georgetown (23-8) vs. #14 Belmont (27-7)
PiRate Criteria Rating: GU 18.4 BU 11.8
In recent years, Georgetown lacked the rebounding and ball-hawking ability to advance very far in the Tournament. This year is completely different. This Hoya team has the talent to make it to New Orleans.
This Hoya team can shoot the ball, and like all Georgetown teams, they can force off-target shots and can block shots. GU can rebound like the old Alonzo Mourning-Dikembe Mutombo and Pat Ewing teams. While they don’t force a lot of turnovers, they don’t commit many either.
Belmont has twice given Mike Krzyzewski a nervous stomach, losing by one in the NCAA Tournament a few years ago and by one in Durham this year. The Bruins rely on a lot of three-point shots, and that style of play rarely works in the Big Dance. Big men Scott Saunders and Mick Hedgepath will be neutralized by Georgetown’s deep inside presence, and this game will not be all that close.
Prediction: Georgetown 71 Belmont 51
4:10 TBS—Midwest Regional
#1 North Carolina (29-5) vs. #16 Lamar or Vermont
PiRate Criteria Score: UNC 31.1 Lam. 6.5 VT 2.1
The Tar Heels have the highest criteria score, but they do not meet the minimum requirements in every category. They just miss on field goal percentage margin with a margin of 6.8%. However, they are the most dominating rebounding team in the nation, and they can monopolize on those rebounds with a devastating fast break.
The injury to forward John Henson will not stop UNC in the first weekend. If he recovers fully, this team could finish the season on a six-game winning streak.
The play-in winner will be overwhelmed and intimidated by the most explosive team in the Dance. This game will be over within five to eight minutes. UNC will have a comfortable lead by the second media timeout.
Prediction: North Carolina 102 Lamar 67 or North Carolina 89 Vermont 50
4:40 TNT—West Regional
#2 Missouri (30-4) vs. #15 Norfolk State (25-9)
PiRate Criteria Score: MO 19.1 Norf. -2.9
Okay, there is nothing we can do to encourage you to watch this game. It could be the biggest mismatch of the second round. Missouri likes to run, and the Tigers can score a lot of points in a little time. Even though the Tigers are up-tempo, they take care of the ball and do not turn it over. Their one weakness comes inside against teams that can control the tempo and be physical in the paint.
Norfolk State actually has a huge size advantage, but the Spartans lack the talent to exploit Missouri’s liability. NSU turns the ball over too much, and Missouri will take advantage of these miscues with several easy baskets.
Prediction: Missouri 92 Norfolk State 66
6:50 PM TBS—West Regional
#8 Memphis (26-8) vs. #9 St. Louis (25-7)
PiRate Criteria Score: Mem 18.2 Stl 14.2
These former rivals once again feature dissimilar assets. Coach Josh Pastner has Memphis playing much like his former mentor Lute Olsen’s Arizona teams. The Tigers move the ball with meaning and get a lot of open shots. MU’s field goal accuracy is a hair under 50%, and it has been improving as of late. The Tigers grudgingly yield baskets, holding opponents to 38.4% from the field.
For the Billikens, it’s defense first, second, and third. SLU holds opponents to 57.5 points a game, and they force a goodly amount of turnovers for the pace they play. Coach Rick Majerus has enjoyed success against the “Arizona offense” in the past, but this is not the past. SLU does not have the talent to go head-to-head with the Tigers for 40 minutes.
Prediction: Memphis 67 St. Louis 58
7:15 PM CBS—South Regional
#2 Duke (27-6) vs. #15 Lehigh (26-7)
PiRate Criteria Score: Duke 19.9 Leh. 5.7
In Durham, even when Duke is not up to its normal standards, the Blue Devils are still contenders to advance to the Final Four. While we believe the Blue Devils will fall in the second weekend this year, the first weekend is no problem. They have the horses to win the two claiming races they will play in Greensboro.
Lehigh is one of the better Patriot League representatives to come along in recent years, but this is not Bucknell vs. Kansas of a few years ago.
Prediction: Duke 82 Lehigh 58
7:20 TNT—Midwest Regional
#4 Michigan (24-9) vs. #13 Ohio U (27-7)
PiRate Criteria Score: Mich. 8.5 Ohio 6.5
It is our opinion that Michigan is ripe for the picking this weekend. The Wolverines win games with the jump shot. They lack any rebounding strength, yet they do not force enough turnovers to get extra scoring opportunities. If their outside shooting is on target, they can compete with most of the teams in the tournament. If their outside shooting is not on target, the Ohio’s of the tournament can beat them and even beat them handily.
The Bobcats are strong on defense, and they can limit the Wolverines’ outside shooting. If they had any legitimate offensive threat, we would go with Ohio in this game. However, this team may not have the offensive power to take advantage of a cold Wolverine shooting night.
Prediction: Michigan 66 Ohio 62
7:27 truTV—Midwest Regional
#7 Saint Mary’s (27-5) vs. #10 Purdue (21-12)
PiRate Criteria Score: SMU 17.0 PU 8.8
Saint Mary’s is the top team in the West, and the Gaels have a legitimate chance to advance to the Elite 8 if injured big guard Stephen Holt can return from an injury to his knee.
Purdue knows all about injuries to the knee. Star forward Robbie Hummel missed two seasons. Like Alabama, Purdue has suffered since a former starter was booted from the team. The Boilermakers are not going to make it through the first weekend, and we see them being one and done.
Prediction: Saint Mary’s 75 Purdue 65
9:20 PM TBS—West Regional
#1 Michigan State (27-7) vs. #16 Long Island (25-8)
PiRate Criteria Score: MSU 27.4 LIU -3.4
Michigan State can be defeated by a team that can force turnovers and change the pace of the game. Not many opponents that try to go head-to-head with them in an inside power game will come away happy. The Spartans can hoist the big banner if they catch a break and avoid teams like Missouri and Syracuse.
Long Island might have been more competitive against MSU had this been last year, but the Blackbirds just don’t have the talent to pull off an upset or even keep this game close.
Look for Michigan State to gradually pull ahead and lengthen their lead until Coach Tom Izzo empties the bench.
Prediction: Michigan State 72 Long Island 50
9:45 PM CBS—South Regional
#7 Notre Dame (22-11) vs. #10 Xavier (21-12)
PiRate Criteria Score: ND 3.3 Xav. 6.2
Neither team is all that impressive, and the winner will be gone Sunday after losing to Duke.
Notre Dame is a poor shooting team overall, but the Irish defense is strong. Coach Mike Brey wants a snail’s pace, half-court game, because his players cannot get into a running game and win.
Xavier’s chances for a big year went down the drain in a melee against in-town rival Cincinnati. The Musketeers have been a .500 team since that brawl, and they were undefeated when it happened. Had performance in the last 10 games still counted, the Selection Committee would have selected someone else and left Xavier to the NIT.
Xavier’s Tu Holloway should guide his team to a victory, but that’s as far as Xavier is going.
Prediction: Xavier 60 Notre Dame 56
9:50 TNT—Midwest Regional
#5 Temple (24-7) vs. #12 California or South Florida
PiRate Criteria Score: TU 9.7 Cal 10.5 USF 5.1
If Coach Mike Montgomery’s Bears win the play-in game, a second round Temple-Cal match would be one of the best of the day. Both teams feature excellent perimeter play with just enough inside presence to keep defenses honest.
If USF beats Cal, a second round game with Temple will be a different kettle of fish. It will be more of a dull, grind-it-out affair. We believe the Owls will have little trouble defeating this style of play.
Prediction: California 73 Temple 69 or Temple 64 South Florida 54
9:57 truTV—Midwest Regional
#2 Kansas (27-6) vs. #15 Detroit (22-13)
PiRate Criteria Score: KU 24.0 Det. 3.1
This will not be the basketball version of “Remember The Titans.” These Titans from Detroit are just happy to be here. They will be home Saturday morning.
Kansas is liable to double up on the rebounding numbers in this game. A two to one edge on the boards is a certain victory. Thomas Robinson could outrebound Detroit’s starting five!
Look for a quick and easy blowout in this game, but make no mistake about this: Kansas is vulnerable after this weekend.
Prediction: Kansas 79 Detroit 55
February 6, 2012
PiRate Ratings Look At The 2012 Presidential Race
The PiRate Ratings step outside the sporting world today to take a look at the 2012 Presidential Election race. We look at this race in a mechanical manner; in other words, we attempt to handicap this race much like a horse race, using back-tested information as a guide.
Our conclusion: The Republican Party is in big trouble at the present time! When the race began to heat up last summer, it looked like the GOP had as much chance of unseating President Obama as the Democrats had of unseating Herbert Hoover in 1932. They needed to isolate on the one candidate that could unite the party and come off as the next Ronald Reagan. Find a great communicator with executive experience that hailed from a Southern state, the Industrial Midwest, or California.
Only one Governor from the South decided to run, Rick Perry. He proved to be not up to the task, and he was finished before the first caucus vote was cast. Jeb Bush never threw his hat in the ring, and Bobby Jindal peaked four years ago. The only Republican ex-governor of California was not eligible, and his exit from office left him in a bad scandal anyway.
The Midwest had the ideal candidate, one who would have become a heavy favorite to win in 2012. Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels chose not to run, citing the desires of his family.
Tim Pawlenty, former governor of Minnesota, briefly entered the race, but he dropped out following the Iowa Straw Poll last summer. Had he known that almost every candidate that did not fare well in that straw poll rose to the top of the polls at one time, maybe he would have remained in the race long enough to win the Iowa Caucus. We will never know, and besides, we do not include Minnesota as part of the Industrial Midwest.
Note: The Industrial Midwest is merely a descriptive name for a group of states that relied on industry for decades as the chief means of employment. Almost all industries have now deserted the United States for cheaper foreign labor markets.
Here is the major problem for the GOP. Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are unelectable for different reasons! Gingrich is considered a lone wolf, even though he is really one of the global elite. However, he has enough ego to try to make numerous changes, and that is not supported by the inside elite. They will not allow him to become President. Rick Santorum and Ron Paul have no chance of winning the nomination, so we will not consider either in this submission. Of course in National polls, both candidates are in dead heats with the President, while Obama has a comfortable lead over Gingrich and a considerable lead over the fading Romney.
Romney is still the apparent front-runner with a very large chance of winning the nomination, so let us concentrate the rest of this submission on why he cannot beat President Obama in the general election.
We at the PiRate Ratings are political junkies. We have political maps for every Presidential election in US history. These maps paint an excellent picture of the philosophy and psychology of the American public.
If somebody would have had this information in 1802, they could have forewarned President Jefferson of the impending divide in the country. Most elections from Jefferson through Lincoln showed the great divide between the states; they could have seen the split between the region that would become the Confederate States of America and the region that would stay loyal to the Union. The upper Atlantic states and New England States voted one way, and the South and West voted another. Most elections then were decided in the Midwest, where half a dozen large states swayed the elections.
After the Civil War, the South remained solid Democrat, believing that the Republican Party was responsible for Reconstruction, carpetbaggers, and scallywags. The South remained a solid Democrat voting block for many years. Then, President Johnson brought forth his Great Society in the mid-1960’s, and with it, his Civil Rights Act turned the South around overnight. Beginning in 1968, the Democrats were finished in the South. George Wallace won a handful of Southern states campaigning on a segregationist agenda, but Nixon won the rest.
Since 1968, it has been relatively easy to determine the outcome of elections. The Republicans needed to hold onto their Southern base, winning almost every state from among Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Texas. We do not include Florida in this list, because this state has a large number of non-Southerners residing within its borders. A high number of Northern retirees, many from the Upper Atlantic and New England, and a large number of Hispanics, give Florida a unique position, making it a swing state.
The Republicans have two options for winning the White House. The first option is to take California and its 55 electoral votes, better than 20% of the needed 270 electoral votes to win. By taking California and the South (not including Florida), that gives a GOP candidate 186 electoral votes. Add 51 more electoral votes from western states that almost always vote GOP (Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma, and this brings the total to 237.
From there, only 33 more electoral votes are needed for a GOP victory. Florida has 29 electoral votes, and if a Republican takes Florida, he only needs a state like Iowa, Colorado, or Indiana to go over the top.
The second option for a Republican is to win a majority of the Industrial Midwest. Look at the riches available in this swing area: Ohio (18), Indiana (11), Michigan (16), Illinois (20), and Wisconsin (10) add up to 75 electoral votes. We will add three states to this list that have similarities to this group. Pennsylvania (20), Missouri (10), and Kentucky (8), bring the total in this area to 113.
So, if the Republican does not carry California and its 55 electoral votes, he can still win by taking half of the Midwest. Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, and Wisconsin add up to 57 electoral votes, two more than California.
So, how does this apply to Mitt Romney and the race in 2012? Plenty! In the entire history of the Republican Party, only two candidates from New England and the Upper Atlantic have ever become President of the United States. However, and this is big, both candidates were already President when they ran for President. Calvin Coolidge, from Vermont, was the Vice President when Warren Harding died in office in 1923; he won in 1924. Theodore Roosevelt, from New York, was the Vice President when William McKinley was assassinated in Buffalo at the World’s Fair in 1901; he won in 1904.
Looking at nominees that were not already President, there have been just two elections involving one GOP candidate from the New England/Upper Atlantic area. Thomas Dewey hailed from New York. He lost to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944 and Harry Truman in 1948.
In 1944, FDR carried the entire South, as Southerners would not support an Eastern Elitist Republican, when the opposition was an Eastern Elitist Democrat. In 1948, Dewey won in California, which had half the electoral votes as it does today. He won in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Indiana. Truman carried the entire South as well as Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Kentucky.
Romney will have major trouble in the South. He is looked on as an Eastern elitist, a Yankee, a carpetbagger, etc. His numerous gaffes and flip-flops will hurt him in any swing state, but in the South, words tend to mean a lot more to voters. Let us take a look at six of those liabilities:
1. During an Iowa debate, he stated that he could not have a lawn service that hired illegal aliens continue to work for him because he was running for President. This infers that had he not chosen to run, he would not have had a problem.
2. He stated that he didn’t make all that much money on his speaking engagements, only between a quarter and half million dollars per speech. A majority of Southern Republican voters believe that a quarter million dollars is “all that much.”
3. He likes firing people. In fact, he repeated how quickly he would fire someone just because that someone came to him with a business idea. He has not stated a love for hiring people.
4. He doesn’t worry about the poor, because there are safety nets for them. This infers that he supports the current Welfare system, which a majority of GOP voters in the South do not support.
5. He has flip-flopped on both abortion and gun rights.
6. He openly vowed to be as liberal as Ted Kennedy when he ran against Kennedy in a Massachusetts Senatorial race, and he ran away from the Republican philosophy of Ronald Reagan. That is why the Reagan family has endorsed Gingrich.
Any single one of these six facts is enough to harm him greatly all over the country, especially in the crucial Southern states.
Now, concerning Romney’s other liability in the South–his Mormon religion: People in the South may be quiet about this issue, but a great deal of Southern White Protestants will not support him, even against President Obama. As a Southerner who is not a Protestant, I have personally witnessed 21st Century religious bigotry. I am not a member of the Church of Latter Day Saints, and I do not wear my religion on a sleeve. I don’t advertise my beliefs publicly. Yet, many Southerners do.
I have heard enough GOP voters talk about how they cannot support a candidate that belongs to a Church that believes their savior returned to New York State and spoke to one man in the 19th Century. For many in the South, there is still the stigma of polygamy, even though this has not been the case for over 120 years. While religious bigotry has no place in the 21st Century, the 21st Century Southern conservative voter may decide it still does.
The mechanical data does not work out for Romney. The last Massachusetts Republican that had a chance to become President was Henry Cabot Lodge. He even made it to the GOP ticket as a Vice Presidential running mate for Richard Nixon in 1960.
Cabot Lodge’s political ideology was similar to Romney’s. A disciple of two of the most influential and elitist families in New England, Cabot Lodge was also a hero. He was the only United States Senator to resign from office to join the military to fight in World War II. Many political experts believe Cabot Lodge hurt Nixon’s chances in many states in 1960 and even cost Nixon the election.
Let’s take a look at the political map of 2012. If Romney is the nominee, then barring a major catastrophe, like a total collapse of the Stock Market or a major war that our country appears to be losing, Obama will stand a much better than 50% chance of defeating Romney for reelection. If the country is thrust into a Mideast war through an enemy provocation, then Obama’s chances will increase all the more.
Let’s start our mechanical look by concentrating on the South. Obama beat John McCain by a score of 365-173. In 2008, Obama won in North Carolina and Virginia for 28 electoral votes. He also took the swing state of Florida and its 27 votes (Florida has 29 electoral votes in this election). McCain needed a sweep in the South, and he could not get it. Had he swept the South, it would have given him 228 votes, still 42 shy of what he needed.
Obama won California and its 55 votes. McCain, from Arizona, did not offer anything to swing the biggest prize his way. Had he won California and the three Southern States he lost, he would have won the election.
Of course, there is a second avenue for a Republican if he cannot sweep the South and take California. He must win several states in the Midwest. Obama won big here in 2008, and he will do well enough in 2012 to win reelection if Romney is the opponent.
Obama will win his home state of Illinois and its 20 votes. He will win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for another 30 votes. Romney should win Indiana, and he should win Michigan, because the Romney name still means a lot in the Wolverine State. However, a heavy turnout in Detroit could tilt the state’s 16 votes his way.
You would expect Romney to do well in New England, but that is not necessarily the case. He will lose his home state of Massachusetts, and that speaks volumes. A little known fact is that when Romney chose not to run for gubernatorial reelection, he did so because he was going to lose by a large amount. He won in 2002 with a slim plurality of the vote, falling short of 50%. Had Green Party candidate Jill Stein not run, then Democrat Shannon O’Brien might have won the election. Romney’s favorable ratings as Governor were never high, and when he chose not to stand for reelection, the favorable percentage was in the 30’s. He left office as the 48th most popular governor after his legislation led to much higher taxes. It is estimated that he raised taxes on many corporations by almost 100%! He also added a heavy number of fees to run businesses, and he lost a great deal of his Republican base by 2006.
Obama will win Massachusetts; he will also win Connecticut, Vermont, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland. Romney cannot count on his own area for major support. He may take New Hampshire, and he could still lose there.
Let us break down this race into safe Republican and safe Democrat states.
We are going to assume that Romney can keep the Southern states McCain won in 2008, but as you read above, this is not a sure thing. We will give him Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Texas for 103 electoral votes.
Romney will carry most of Flyover country as all GOP candidates do. That gives him another 11 states, but only 54 more electoral votes—Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, and Alaska. That brings his total to 157 votes in these 19 states.
Kentucky, West Virginia, and Indiana will go for the Republican candidate in this race, regardless of the name of that candidate. These three bring Romney’s total to 22 states and 181 electoral votes. We will call this his sure thing states with the caveat that one or two of these states could go against him for the reasons described above.
Obama has fewer sure thing states, but they carry more electoral votes. Start with the West, where he will sweep the Pacific Coast. California, Oregon, and Washington plus the always Democrat Hawaii gives him four states and 78 electoral votes.
In the Midwest, he will carry his home state of Illinois as well as the liberal state of Minnesota. That increases his totals to six states and 108 electoral votes.
We will not give Obama the two Southern states he won in 2008, even though he stands a good chance of taking both Virginia and North Carolina again. So, his total stays the same.
It is in Romney’s own area where Obama will hit his opponent hard. Give the President Washington, D.C., Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Maine. That brings his total to 15 states plus DC and 196 electoral votes.
The remaining toss-up states are: New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), Florida (29), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), Missouri (10), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), and Nevada (6). That adds up to 161 electoral votes. Obama would need 74 of these electoral votes, while Romney would need 89.
As of today, if we had to call these swing states, we would give Obama New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado. This adds 82 electoral votes, bringing his total to 278 and securing the victory.
We will give Romney Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Missouri, and Nevada. This adds 79 electoral votes, bringing his total to 260.
We must admit that we gave Romney the benefit of the doubt in several states, where he is not guaranteed to win. In fact, with his favorable numbers sinking quickly, we believe that 260 is the absolute maximum number of electoral votes he can win. In all honesty, he could lose 30-40 of these electoral votes.
The GOP needs to hope for a brokered convention where they can appeal to Governor Daniels to become the new great compromise. Daniels can win 300-350 electoral votes by cutting into Obama’s popularity in the Midwest, and he can sweep the South.
March 20, 2011
March 19, 2011
Saturday’s NCAA Tournament PiRate Criteria Ratings
All Times EDT
Number in (Parentheses) indicates PiRate Criteria Rating
For a detailed explanation of the PiRate Criteria Rating, click on the following link:
https://piratings.wordpress.com/2011/03/13/bracketnomics-505-2011-edition/
12:15 PM on CBS
Kentucky (14) vs. West Virginia (6)
The Wildcats seek revenge today for their regional final exit of last year. This Kentucky team has what last year’s team lacked—consistent outside shooting to complement their more than decent dribble-drive. While not as talented, Coach John Calipari’s squad is more complete this year. The Blue Misters are jelling at the right time, and we believe they will advance to the Sweet 16.
West Virginia is not as dominating inside as they were last year, and they might be a little to slow and methodical to compete against the quicker Wildcats. Coach Bob Huggins will have a great gameplan ready, and we believe the Mountaineers will keep it close.
We see this as a game of spurts. Kentucky will enjoy one spurt in both halves, and WVU will attempt to creep back in the game both times.
Prediction: Kentucky 74 West Virginia 67
2:40 PM on CBS
Florida (15) vs. U C L A (-3)
The PiRate Criteria rates this game a giant mismatch, and we see no reason why not to agree. This would be a great game if all the former Bruins now playing in the NBA would have used their four years of eligibility. However, this is more like the old Brubabes when schools fielded Freshmen and later Junior Varsity teams. This UCLA team is better than Florida’s second team. The Gators’ best players are still around, while UCLA’s best senior is the star of the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Florida has a large quickness advantage, and they will win the hustle points. This one should be out of hand by halftime or five minutes into the second half.
Prediction: Florida 75 U C L A 62
5:15 PM on CBS
Morehead State (3) vs. Richmond (2)
This game will be one of the more interesting contests in the Round of 32. Morehead State is an aggressive take-it-to-the-hoop and score or pass back for a three team. The Racers have the closest thing to Elvin Hayes on their roster. Kenneth Faried is much better than Dennis Rodman, but he is much thinner than Wes Unseld, and he has a better offensive game than both of those historically fantastic rebounders. Faried can take it to the hoop, and he can pull up and fire from the foul line area, much like the great Hayes used to do with Houston and in the NBA.
Richmond will try to make this a game of the smart beating the strong, because the Spiders do not have much of an answer for Faried inside. However, they enjoy a huge advantage on the perimeter.
This game will come down to this easy pointer: whichever team performs better at their strength and defends the other’s strength will win. We think this one could end on a buzzer beater or go to overtime, but we will go with the chalk and take the higher PiRate score.
By the way, the last time an Ohio Valley Conference team advanced to the Sweet 16, it was Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers left the OVC more than two decades ago.
Prediction: Morehead State 64 Richmond 62
6:10 PM on TNT
San Diego State (19) vs. Temple (5)
If our criteria rating is going to be accurate this season, then we need to see the Aztecs play much better today than they did in a lackluster opening round win over Northern Colorado. If San Diego State is firing on all cylinders, Temple has little or no chance in this game.
This Owl team is not quick enough or strong enough to battle this Aztec team if SDSU is playing just an average game. If the Aztecs come out flat, Coach Fran Dunphy’s Owls could keep it close for 40 minutes and even be in striking distance.
Steve Fisher has been to the Final Four three times, and he knows how to prepare a team in tournament play. He has enough talent to get there again, and we believe SDSU will play much better today against a much better opponent than Northern Colorado. Remember this: Temple ran Duke of the Palestra floor less a month ago. They have enough talent to win this game, but we do not see it happening.
Prediction: San Diego State 72 Temple 62
7:10 PM on TBS
Pittsburgh (18) vs. Butler (7)
We know better than to count out a team coached by Brad Stevens. However, Butler’s bubble is going to burst today.
Pittsburgh is just too talented to lose this game, even if Coach Jamie Dixon sometimes loses control of that talent. The Panthers know what Butler can do, and they will be fired up for this game just as much as if they were playing Ohio State, Duke, or Kansas.
Butler is playing its best ball at the right time, but they are plainly outmanned against a superior team. We expect the Bulldogs to keep it close and still have a chance with 10 minutes to go, but the Panthers will wear them down and pull away to what looks like an easier win than it was.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 71 Butler 59
7:45 PM on CBS
B Y U (18) vs. Gonzaga (13)
When you penalize BYU for the loss of Brandon Davies, their criteria score drops by about five points. This ironically makes this game a complete tossup.
Jimmer Fredette may be able to score 40-50 points in this game, but Gonzaga could place five players in double figures. We tend to like the odds of five scorers outscoring one.
Coach Mark Few deserves high accolades for turning this Bulldog team around in midseason. The Zags appeared to be NIT-bound, before they turned it up a notch and began playing the best basketball seen in Spokane since the days of Adam Morrison.
We believe Gonzaga is Sweet 16-bound, and we would not be surprised if they give Florida a great game in a potential matchup.
Prediction: Gonzaga 84 B Y U 75
8:40 PM on TNT
Kansas State (9) vs. Wisconsin (7)
This one is the other great game of the day. How about Jacob Pullen versus Jordan Taylor, and Jon Leuer versus Curtis Kelly? If you like great player matchups, then this is the game of the day for you.
Kansas State is a tad stronger on the perimeter and a tad quicker, while Wisconsin is a tad stronger inside. We expect the tempo to be controlled by the Badgers, so the score will be one of the lowest of the day, if not the lowest.
We have no real favorite in this game, so we will stick with the PiRate Criteria scores. Two points is not much; it equates to about a 55% chance of the favorite winning.
Prediction: Kansas State 59 Wisconsin 55
9:40 PM on TBS
Connecticut (9) vs. Cincinnati (9)
Here we have our first game between teams from the same conference and teams that have already played against each other. In their lone regular season contest in Cincinnati, the Huskies won on the road by eight points.
Both teams play tenacious defense and rely on just a couple of players to lead on offense. They know each other well, so it should be a high-spirited, tightly-fought game with a lot of excellent defensive possessions sprinkled with the occasional great offensive play.
Cincinnati will concentrate their efforts on stopping Kemba Walker, while the Huskies will try to keep the ball away from Yancy Gates and Dion Dixon.
This is the other game that could come down to a buzzer-beater, but we have a sneaky suspicion that Connecticut is about to explode and play like Husky teams of the past.
Prediction: Connecticut 69 Cincinnati 59
March 14, 2011
March 27, 2009
A PiRate Look At The NCAA Tournament: The Elite 8–March 28-29, 2009
A PiRate Look At The NCAA Tournament
The Elite 8
March 28-29, 2009
We’ve decided to combine the Saturday and Sunday games into one blog since this is being compiled late Friday night after the games have ended.
It’s not quite the Big East Tournament part two, but it looks like there will be two and as many as three Big East teams headed to Detroit.
Our Sweet 16 picking brought an end to our chances of hitting the national champion for a fourth consecutive season. We missed that pick, although we did mention that we thought Missouri should be the true favorite in that game and that they could easily run out to a quick double-digit lead in the game. We also must admit that our mentor and originator of this blog told us to watch Missouri knock Memphis out, and we didn’t listen as much as we should have.
So, which teams left in the tournament still possess all the PiRate Criteria necessary to win it all? In the East, Pitt easily qualifies. Villanova now qualifies if you factor in their win over Duke, since their points per game margin reached 10.0 following the easy win. In the Southeast, North Carolina qualifies, but Oklahoma just misses. In the Midwest, Louisville qualifies but not Michigan State. In the West, Connecticut and Missouri both qualify. Seven of the eight remaining teams qualify, and the one that misses does so by a mere one point.
Of the original 11 teams we listed as super teams possessing the statistical criteria similar to past champions, five have made it to the Elite 8 round.
Our record for the Sweet 16 was just 5-3, bringing the three round total to 43-13.
(numbers in parentheses are PiRate Criteria scores)
[number in brackets is Strength of Schedule advantage]
East Region @ Boston
Pittsburgh (14) vs. Villanova (9) [Pittsburgh 2]
Game Time: Saturday, 7:00 PM EDT
These teams played just once during the regular season with Villanova winning by 10 at home. In that game, Pitt’s Dejuan Blair sat on the bench with foul trouble for much of the night.
With Blair staying out of foul trouble this time, we think the Panthers will advance to their first Final Four.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 72 Villanova 64
South Region @ Memphis
North Carolina (17) vs. Oklahoma (9) [Even Strength]
Game Time: Sunday, 5:00 PM EDT
What a great match between two dominant big men we have here! Tyler Hansbrough and Blake Griffin are two of the top five college players in the game.
Griffin may end up with the better numbers in this game, but Hansbrough has a much better supporting cast. The Tar Heels will advance yet again to another Final Four.
Prediction: North Carolina 85 Oklahoma 73
Midwest Region @ Indianapolis
Louisville (10) vs. Michigan State (7) [Mich. State 1]
Game Time: Sunday, 2:20 PM EDT
The Two games on this side of the bracket provide us with great studies in contrast. A quick, full-court team will take on an inside banger team that has some decent outside shooting.
Four of Louisville’s five losses came to teams that can bang the ball inside and get plenty of offensive rebounds. Connecticut, Notre Dame, Minnesota, and UNLV all play a game similar to Michigan State. The Spartans are capable of holding the Cardinals under 45% shooting and take 55% of the rebounds. Capable yes, but we don’t think it will happen. Rick Pitino will guide UL back to the Final Four.
Prediction: Louisville 70 Michigan State 63
West Region @ Glendale, AZ
Connecticut (14) vs. Missouri (12) [Connecticut 1]
Game Time: Saturday, 4:30 PM EDT
We think this will be the best game of the four in this round. Missouri looked every bit as good as the 1994 Arkansas team that won the NCAA Championship, a team with current Tiger coach Mike Anderson on the bench as an assistant.
On the other hand, UConn looks every bit as good if not better than the two Husky teams that won national titles.
We don’t think Mizzou will be able to force all that many turnovers in this game, and if they only pick up 8-10 steals, it will not be enough. They need 12-15 steals to have a chance to win this game.
Connecticut’s inside game will be too strong for MU, and we think it will force the Tigers into foul trouble.
Prediction: Connecticut 86 Missouri 74
March 25, 2009
A PiRate Look At The 2009 NCAA Tournament: The Sweet 16
A PiRate Look At The NCAA Tournament
The Sweet 16
March 26-27, 2009
As the Sweet 16 prepares to begin play tomorrow night, our PiRate Formula for picking teams that display the necessary statistics similar to the historical Final Four participants and National Champions are once again proving to be quite accurate. We consider it the SABRmetrics of college basketball.
We originally told you about our list of the 12 Super Teams in this tournament. We apologize for our not being able to count. We only listed 11 teams. Of those 11 teams, eight advanced to the Sweet 16. One of the three teams, UCLA, lost to Villanova. Villanova just barely missed out on qualifying for the Super Team list, and they basically got to host their first two games at the Spectrum. Only Wake Forest and West Virginia’s losses can really be listed as misses.
On Sunday, our picks ran the table, going 8-0. Combined with Saturday’s games, our second round success rate was 14-2. For the tournament to date, we are now 38-10.
Without further adieu, here are the eight games for the third round. The criteria scores and Strengths of Schedule have been updated to reflect the two games in the tournament.
(numbers in parentheses are PiRate Criteria scores)
[number in brackets is Strength of Schedule advantage]
East Region @ Boston
Pittsburgh (14) vs. Xavier (10) [Pitt 3]
Game Time: Thursday, 7:27 PM EDT
This is an interesting match if only because Xavier coach Sean Miller was once a starter on a great Pitt team.
The way to beat Pitt is to force them to commit turnovers and play transition defense. The Musketeers are more like Pitt than like the type of team needed to beat the Panthers. Xavier cannot match up inside with the more muscular Pitt inside, and the Panthers will advance to the Elite 8. Xavier’s only chance is to take 30 three-point shots and hit 40%.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 74 Xavier 64
Villanova (9) vs. Duke (14) [Duke 4]
Game Time: Thursday, approximately 9:42 PM EDT
Villanova missed out on being rated at 13 by just a hair. This game is being touted as one in which the 3-seed Wildcats should be favored over the 2-seed Blue Devils.
This game provides an excellent study in contrast. VU has a great deal of talent inside with a surprising outside presence. Duke has a great deal of talent on the perimeter with a surprising inside presence.
This should be a close game throughout the first half and a good deal of the second half. Then, we believe the Duke defense will begin to force Villanova into mistakes and take advantage of those errors. It should lead to a nice Blue Devil run in the last 10 minutes to move Coach K to the Elite 8.
Prediction: Duke 77 Villanova 70
South Region @ Memphis
Syracuse (4) vs. Oklahoma (9) [Syracuse 2]
Game Time: Friday, 7:27 PM EDT
This is the only Sweet 16 game in which neither team owns a double digit criteria score. What it means to us is that the winner of this game will lose in the Elite 8 game Sunday.
This one should be a tight contest. Syracuse’s zone defense should reduce the number of looks for Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin. The Sooners have an ample trio of outside shooters, and they will have to step it up a notch to beat the Orangemen. If Tony Crocker, Willie Warren, and Austin Johnson are hot, the Sooners will continue to play on Sunday.
Syracuse will have to pack in their zone to keep Griffin from killing them inside. They will score points on offense, but they may give up points just even quicker if they cannot cover the perimeter when the ball is kicked out from the posts.
Prediction: Oklahoma 82 Syracuse 75
North Carolina (17) vs. Gonzaga (17) [N. Carolina 5]
Game Time: Friday, approximately 9:42 PM EDT
Gonzaga shares the second best PiRate criteria score with their opponent, but the Bulldogs compiled their stats against an inferior schedule. Even though they played some big time teams, including Memphis and Connecticut, they played too many teams well beneath the average.
North Carolina will not be able to just walk all over the Zags. We expect GU to stay within striking distance for at least 30-32 minutes, and we wouldn’t be shocked if they led at any point of that time.
The Tar Heels will supposedly have Ty Lawson near 100% ready for this game. Their bench is much more potent than Gonzaga’s, and we think they will eventually wear down the Bulldogs.
Prediction: North Carolina 85 Gonzaga 74
Midwest Region @ Indianapolis
Louisville (10) vs. Arizona (-2) [Louisville 2]
Game Time: Friday, 7:07 PM EDT
Arizona is the one team in the Sweet 16 that we feel doesn’t have the talent of the other 15 teams. We didn’t think the Wildcats would make it this far, and we honestly felt that Penn State deserved to be here in their place.
The players heard for days that they didn’t deserve to be in the Dance, and that motivated them to play great ball last weekend. We think this weekend will be different.
Louisville has not played like a number one seed of the entire tournament. They got a virtual bye in the first round against Morehead State, and they could have easily lost to Siena in round two. The Cardinals might stumble through for a third time and win only because their opponent is the weakest of the Sweet 16 teams. It may be UL’s last win of the season if they don’t play more consistently.
Prediction: Louisville 69 Arizona 64
Kansas (10) vs. Michigan State (7) [Mich. St. 1]
Game Time: Approximately 9:22 PM EDT
This game should be a rugged, jaw-to-jaw contest of teams that like to bang it. Both teams control the boards in their games, and it will be interesting to see if either can dominate the other. We’ll call it a standoff in this stat.
Both teams’ weakness is their ability to take advantage of turnover margin. If either team were playing somebody like Missouri this week, we would feel inclined to pick them to lose. Since neither team will be able to force a bunch of mistakes and capitalize with a great fast break, we will call this a standoff as well.
We think the game will be decided by KU’s defense. The Jayhawks will force MSU to shoot a lower percentage of shots and not receive their usual amount of offensive rebounds to hold the Spartans well below their points per game average. We’re not sure MSU can do the same to the Jayhawks, so we’re picking the defending champions to return to the Elite 8.
Prediction: Kansas 72 Michigan State 67
West Region @ Glendale, AZ
Connecticut (14) vs. Purdue (6) [Even Strength]
Game Time: Thursday, 7:07 PM EDT
This looks like a potential mismatch, but some late developments may have the UConn players not ready mentally for this game. A report by Yahoo Sports that the Huskies broke several NCAA rules when it recruited a former player may make it difficult for the players to properly prepare for this game.
Purdue doesn’t have the tools needed to beat Connecticut. It takes a team with solid strength in the paint, and the Boilermakers don’t have the inside firepower. Only a poorly played game by the top seed would make this one close.
We think the Huskies will start out a little bit off their game, but after a couple of TV timeouts, they should settle down and start playing well. As long as Hasheem Thabeet stays out of foul trouble and plays about 25 minutes in this game, UConn should win by double digits.
Prediction: Connecticut 73 Purdue 60
Missouri (12) vs. Memphis (19) [Even Strength]
Game Time: Thursday, Approximately 9:22 PM EDT
This is the can’t miss game of the Sweet 16. Both teams are strong in every aspect of the game. Nary of foot of the court will be free parking for either team. It will be a fast-paced game with the players on both teams trying to show up their opponents.
Yes, we picked Memphis to make it to the Championship Game and win it all, but we are not so sure they are the true favorite in this game. Missouri won’t be intimidated, and if the Memphians come out flat like they did in the first round, Mizzou’s fast break game will quickly run out to a double-digit game.
All in all, we think Memphis will be pumped to play the Big 12 Tournament Champions. This is a border war game, and neither team should be flat. We’re going with Memphis only because we picked them to win the title. In reality, we think this is a 50-50 contest.
Prediction: Memphis 77 Missouri 75
Come back Friday for a look at Saturday’s games and Saturday for a look at Sunday’s games.
March 21, 2009
A PiRate Look At The NCAA Tournament: 2nd Round Games Played On Sunday, March 22, 2009
A PiRate Look At The NCAA Tournament
2nd Round Games Played On
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Friday’s games were a little more surprising than Thursday’s games, and several of the games that were won by the team expected to win were exciting and tough to the finish. Siena has now won first round games in consecutive years over teams from a power conference. The Saints could be on the verge of becoming Gonzaga East.
Our picks for day two went 11-5, bringing our total for round one to 24-8. FWIW, we not only picked Siena to beat Ohio State, we almost hit the score exactly, missing by just two points. Of course, a broken watch displays the correct time twice a day.
Here is a look at the Round of 32 games for Sunday.
(numbers in parentheses are PiRate Criteria scores)
East Region
Pittsburgh (14) vs. Oklahoma State (0) [Schedule strengths are equal]: The Panthers struggled against East Tennessee’s pressure defense, committing numerous turnovers. They could have easily become the first number one seed to lose to a 16-seed. Oklahoma State is a quicker, better version of ETSU, but Pittsburgh should be able to hold off the pesky Cowboys. We expect Pitt to be ready for OSU’s pressure and play less error-prone ball. Pittsburgh will advance to the Sweet 16.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 73 Oklahoma State 62
Wisconsin (2) vs. Xavier (8) [Wisconsin has a schedule 2 points per game stronger]: The Badgers held on tough to eke out an overtime win over Florida State Friday night, while Xavier had an easier workout against Portland State. The Musketeers could sneak into the Sweet 16. They are the type of team that can beat Pittsburgh and even Duke if their three big shooters are on their mark. We believe Wisconsin’s best days are two years down the road, and it is a credit to Coach Bo Ryan to get them to the second round this year. However, we expect the Badgers to be out of the Dance after this one.
Prediction: Xavier 64 Wisconsin 57
South Region
Arizona State (4) vs. Syracuse (4) [Syracuse has a schedule 3 points per game stronger]: This should be the best game of the day. Arizona State has two excellent three-point shooters, and it takes a good outside shooting team to beat Syracuse. The Orangemen will press the tempo and force the Sun Devils to play at a faster pace than they would like. If Syracuse can keep from hitting the wall, they should advance.
Prediction: Syracuse 80 Arizona State 71
Midwest Region
Louisville (10) vs. Siena (5) [Louisville has a schedule 4 points per game stronger]: Siena had enough talent to top Ohio State, but Louisville will be too much for the Saints to handle. The Saints will not be able to beat the Cardinals playing the same game against a team with better athletes.
Prediction: Louisville 79 Siena 62
Arizona (-2) vs. Cleveland State (7) [Arizona has a schedule 4 points per game stronger]: This should be a close game. Arizona’s PiRate criteria score is a negative number, but when you add the four points for strength of schedule advantage, this game becomes a virtual tossup. CSU plays terrific defense, while Arizona relies more on offense. This game will be decided on the Cardinal side of the court. If Jordan Hill can hit his inside shots, Arizona should prevail. If Hill cannot get open or cannot connect from his normal range, then the Vikings can be this year’s surprise team in the Sweet 16.
Prediction: Arizona 65 Cleveland State 61
Dayton (5) vs. Kansas (10) [Kansas has a schedule 5 points per game stronger]: Kansas never expected North Dakota State to keep their round one game close for 35 minutes. Dayton never really pulled away from West Virginia, but the Flyers led throughout their game. Round two should be a different bird. Kansas looked a little rusty after losing early in the Big 12 Tournament and going a week without playing. They should play much better in round two, and Dayton won’t have enough talent to stop KU.
Prediction: Kansas 74 Dayton 64
Southern California (2) vs. Michigan State (7) [Michigan State has a schedule 1 point per game stronger]: On paper, Michigan State looks to be better than USC by double digit points. However, USC has put it all together in the past two weeks and must be considered 7-10 points better today than they were in January. We’ll stick with the Spartans to sneak by in this game, but a Trojan win would be no big surprise.
Prediction: Michigan State 71 Southern Cal 64
West Region
Missouri (14) vs. Marquette (9) [Schedule strengths are equal]: Missouri will wear Marquette down as the game wears on. Eventually, the Tigers will go on a run in the second half and put this game out of reach. A Memphis-Missouri Sweet 16 match would be possibly the most exciting game of the entire tournament.
Prediction: Missouri 74 Marquette 65
March 20, 2009
A PiRate Look At The NCAA Tournament: 2nd Round Games Played On Saturday, March 21, 2009
A PiRate Look At The NCAA Tournament
2nd Round Games Played On
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Thursdays games basically went according to expectations with a few exceptions. One number 12 seed won over a five-seed when Western Kentucky controlled Illinois for much of the night. We told you we thought WKU could pull off the upset, even though the system chose Illinois (but could not adjust for the loss of a key starter). For what it’s worth, our Thursday picks went 13-3.
Here is a look at the Round of 32 games for Saturday.
(numbers in parentheses are PiRate Criteria scores)
East Region
UCLA (14) vs. Villanova (9) [Villanova has a schedule 2 points per game stronger]: Both teams had scares in round one and were fortunate to survive to round two. The Bruins have the criteria advantage here, but Villanova has home town advantage plus a slight strength of schedule advantage. This game will look similar to the 1971 championship game between these same schools. UCLA won that won by single digits. That Villanova team had two stars, whereas the UCLA squad had five really good players. Usually five really good players can beat two stars, but home town advantage eliminates that advantage. We’ll go with the Bruins in a very close game.
Prediction: UCLA 64 Villanova 62
Texas (3) vs. Duke (14) [Duke has a schedule 4 points per game stronger]: Duke has all the advantages here. Watch Duke’s Gerald Henderson and Texas’s Damion James. This is the key to this game. If James can dominate better than Henderson, Texas has a chance. We’ll select the Blue Devils to win, but it should be an interesting game.
Prediction: Duke 75 Texas 69
South Region
North Carolina (17) vs. LSU (14) [North Carolina has a schedule 4 points per game stronger]: You usually never see two power conference championship teams facing off in the second round of the tournament, but the SEC is down this year. So the regular season SEC champion faces the regular season ACC champion. Add to that the fact that both of these teams have PiRate criteria in the double digit range. This is almost a home game for the Tar Heels, and they are the dominant team in this region. Carolina advances to the Sweet 16, and the SEC is done for the season.
Prediction: North Carolina 84 LSU 70
Western Kentucky (2) vs. Gonzaga (19) [Gonzaga has a schedule 2 points per game stronger]: Gonzaga turned it on in the final minutes of the night on Thursday and put Akron away with a quick spurt. Western took control quickly in their game against Illinois and then held off the Illini at the end. While the Hilltoppers advanced to the Sweet 16 last year, while Gonzaga went home early, we feel the Bulldogs are poised to make the trip to the next round this year.
Predicition: Gonzaga 77 Western Kentucky 70
Michigan (-4) vs. Oklahoma (9) [Michigan has a schedule 1 point per game stronger]: We can sum this game up in three words: Blake Griffin’s Health. If Griffin is close to 100%, this game will be over Sooner than expected. Michigan knocked Clemson out in the first round because the Tigers couldn’t shoot straight. Oklahoma won’t miss all those open shots and second-chance shots. Michigan will have to hit close to 50% of their shots to stay in this one and connect on 8 or more treys. If Griffin isn’t at full strength, then this game becomes much closer and moves toward being a tossup.
Prediction: Oklahoma 72 Michigan 63
West Region
Connecticut (12) vs. Texas A&M (2) [Connecticut has a schedule 2 points per game stronger]: We certainly hope UConn head coach Jim Calhoun is feeling much better, but we must begin to wonder if this could be his final year with the Huskies. Maybe his players are beginning to think the same, and they want to make sure he goes out a champion. It may or may not be the case, and they may or may not have the horses to go the distance, but the Huskies have enough in the tank to eliminate the Aggies.
Prediction: Connecticut 79 Texas A&M 73
Purdue (6) vs. Washington (9) [Washington has a schedule 1 point per game stronger]: Purdue struggled with Northern Iowa, while Washington quickly dismissed Mississippi State. We believe the Huskies will advance to the Sweet 16 to take on Connecticut in a game that will bring back memories for the fans and coaches of both schools.
Prediction: Washington 70 Purdue 60
Maryland (1) vs. Memphis (19) [Maryland has a schedule 2 points per game stronger]: Was Memphis playing a weak schedule all year when they ran up such a far record? Are they the most overrated team since all those consecutive Depaul teams that lost in the first round when they were ranked number one or two in the nation? We think not. They ran into a tough team in the first round. Maryland played a fantastic first game against Cal, and they could easily play another great one against Coach Cal. In what we believe will be one of the most exciting games of the entire tournament, we’ll stick with the team we are picking to still be playing on April 6.
Prediction Memphis 72 Maryland 71