The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 26, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 26, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:00 am
HomeVisitorSpread
BradleyDrake1.7
CanisiusFairfield0.9
ColoradoUCLA-6.6
DuquesneDavidson5.1
GeorgetownProvidence-9.4
Illinois ChicagoSouthern Illinois-7.2
Illinois St.Evansville9.1
Indiana St.Missouri St.7.3
IonaSiena10.3
MarylandNorthwestern5.5
MemphisCincinnati5.6
MichiganWisconsin5.2
Murray St.Valparaiso5.5
NiagaraSaint Peter’s5.5
Northern IowaBelmont-2.2
Ohio St.Illinois-0.8
Penn St.Rutgers0.6
QuinnipiacManhattan9.5
RiderMount St. Mary’s8.1
St. BonaventureSaint Joseph’s3.8
StanfordWashington4.0
Stephen F. AustinCal Baptist4.0
TulaneWichita St.6.0
TulsaCentral Florida-12.5

February 23, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, February 23, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:00 am
HomeVisitorSpread
Cal St. FullertonUC Davis3.1
Cal St. NorthridgeCal St. Bakersfield0.2
CaliforniaWashington-6.4
CharlestonTowson9.1
CharlotteNorth Texas-2.5
ColoradoUSC2.4
DetroitNorthern Kentucky1.9
DrexelNortheastern7.4
Florida AtlanticUTSA20.7
Florida Intl.UTEP0.6
Gardner-WebbLongwood1.3
GonzagaSan Diego21.0
Green BayCleveland St.-13.7
HamptonMonmouth3.8
Houston ChristianMcNeese St.0.0
Idaho St.Idaho4.2
IllinoisNorthwestern5.5
Incarnate WordNorthwestern St.-6.8
IUPUIRobert Morris-10.2
LamarSoutheastern Louisiana-5.0
LindenwoodSoutheast Missouri St.-3.1
MerrimackCentral Connecticut St.3.6
MilwaukeePurdue Ft. Wayne1.9
MontanaPortland St.6.3
Montana St.Sacramento St.9.6
New OrleansNicholls St.-6.8
North Carolina A&TDelaware-1.9
North DakotaWestern Illinois2.4
North Dakota St.St. Thomas (MN)1.5
OaklandWright St.-2.9
Ohio St.Penn St.2.8
RutgersMichigan5.9
Sacred HeartSt. Francis (NY)6.5
Saint Mary’sPacific19.3
Sam HoustonCal Baptist8.7
San FranciscoPortland7.7
Santa ClaraPepperdine10.3
SIU EdwardsvilleLittle Rock8.1
South DakotaOral Roberts-13.7
South Dakota St.UMKC9.1
Southern IndianaTennessee Tech4.5
St. Francis (PA)Fairleigh Dickinson1.0
StanfordWashington St.0.8
Tarleton St.Utah Valley-4.3
Texas A&M-CCTexas A&M-Commerce10.2
UABRice11.5
UC IrvineUC San Diego14.6
UC Santa BarbaraLong Beach St.5.3
UNC WilmingtonStony Brook12.2
UT ArlingtonSouthern Utah-5.4
UT MartinTennessee St.4.3
UT-Rio Grande ValleyUtah Tech-1.4
UtahUCLA-6.2
WagnerStonehill College4.3
Weber St.Eastern Washington-2.5
Western KentuckyLouisiana Tech1.3
Wichita St.Memphis-5.1
William & MaryElon2.6

February 19, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 19, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:00 am
HomeVisitorSpread
BellarmineCentral Arkansas8.4
Boise St.UNLV8.3
ButlerGeorgetown8.5
Central FloridaCincinnati2.7
Chicago St.Hartford13.6
Cleveland St.Northern Kentucky2.5
DetroitIUPUI17.3
DrakeBelmont6.8
FairfieldManhattan5.8
FurmanEast Tennessee St.13.1
HoustonMemphis11.6
Illinois ChicagoValparaiso1.3
MaristNiagara-1.9
Mount St. Mary’sCanisius1.8
NebraskaMaryland-5.3
North Carolina St.North Carolina1.9
NorthwesternIowa0.1
PurdueOhio St.9.5
Purdue Ft. WayneWright St.-0.3
QuinnipiacRider3.4
Saint Peter’sIona-11.8
SMUEast Carolina4.4
Southern IllinoisBradley-2.6
St. BonaventureGeorge Washington6.2
TempleTulsa13.4
Washington St.Oregon0.7

February 17, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:31 am
Date2/17/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1AlabamaHoustonKansasPurdue
2TexasBaylorUCLATennessee
3ArizonaMarquetteConnecticutVirginia
4Iowa St.GonzagaXavierKansas St.
5IndianaMiami (Fla)Saint Mary’sSan Diego St.
6CreightonTCUNorthwesternMichigan St.
7IowaMarylandIllinoisProvidence
8MissouriDukeAuburnRutgers
9Oklahoma St.NevadaNorth Carolina St.Boise St.
10West VirginiaFlorida AtlanticArkansasTexas A&M
11PittsburghKentuckyMississippi St.MemphisWisconsinUSC
12CharlestonOral RobertsToledoDrake
13VCUSouthern Miss.LibertyUtah Valley
14UCSBYaleSamfordIona
15ColgateE. WashingtonVermontYoungstown St.
16UNC AshevilleMorehead St.Alcorn St.Northwestern St.HowardFairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: West Virginia, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh

Last 4 In: Mississippi St., Memphis, Wisconsin, USC

First 4 Out: North Carolina, Clemson, Penn St., Oregon

Next 4 Out: New Mexico, Utah St., North Texas, Arizona St.

February 12, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 12, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:00 am
HomeVisitorSpread
CanisiusQuinnipiac-5.4
Cleveland St.Youngstown St.-1.8
EvansvilleMissouri St.-9.9
FairfieldMount St. Mary’s5.0
ManhattanSaint Peter’s1.6
MemphisTemple10.6
MinnesotaIowa-11.7
NiagaraIona-7.7
Northern KentuckyIUPUI17.6
NorthwesternPurdue-4.4
Ohio St.Michigan St.3.5
Purdue Fort WayneRobert Morris5.8
SienaMarist10.3
UNC GreensboroWofford9.0
Wichita St.SMU7.1

January 23, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:15 am
Date1/23/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1PurdueAlabamaKansasHouston
2TennesseeTexasUCLAArizona
3Kansas St.Iowa St.VirginiaConnecticut
4GonzagaTCUXavierMarquette
5BaylorAuburnRutgersMiami (Fla)
6DukeSaint Mary’sSan Diego St.Providence
7North CarolinaIndianaNew MexicoIllinois
8North Carolina St.ArkansasFlorida AtlanticMichigan St.
9IowaBoise St.ClemsonCreighton
10Ohio St.MissouriWisconsinCharleston
11MemphisNorthwesternArizona St.West VirginiaMaryland
12Kent St.VCUOral RobertsPittsburghPenn St.
13LouisianaLibertySeattleBelmont
14UC Santa BarbaraSienaPrincetonColgate
15SamfordNorthern KentuckyUMass LowellEastern Washington
16UNC AshevilleUT-MartinSouthernNicholls St.Md. Eastern ShoreSt. Francis PA

Last 4 Byes: Wisconsin, Memphis, Northwestern, Arizona St.

Last 4 In: West Virginia, Maryland, Pittsburgh, Penn St.

First 4 Out: USC, Nevada, Utah St., Oklahoma St.

Next 4 Out: Kentucky, Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech

August 14, 2022

American Athletic Conference Preview

Just when a Group of 5 Conference is getting really good with maybe three teams strong enough to contend for a 2022-23 Playoff berth, said league is about to lose all three really good teams. Cincinnati broke through the insiders’ club last year, when the Bearcats ran the table in the regular season and became the first G5 school to receive a bid to the National Championship Playoffs. It was the second consecutive year that Cinti won every regular season game.

Alas, the Bearcats are headed to the Big 12 Conference. Going with them are the other two really good teams–Houston and Central Florida. A host of Conference USA teams will replace the really good teams, and this league will fall back in the Group of 5 pecking order.

This will be one interesting race this year. Houston and Cincinnati are not scheduled to play, but there is a decent chance they will face each other in game 13 in December.

American Athletic Conference Preseason PiRate Ratings

TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati111.2110.3112.8111.4
Houston105.0104.7106.5105.4
UCF103.8104.5104.6104.3
SMU102.2101.3102.3101.9
East Carolina99.599.1100.499.7
Tulane98.697.797.998.1
Memphis97.097.596.997.1
Tulsa95.894.895.795.4
USF96.294.795.195.3
Navy92.992.191.392.1
Temple80.983.478.681.0
AAC98.598.298.498.3

American Athletic Conference Official Media Poll

Votes
#Team1st PlaceOverall
1Houston7243
2Cincinnati10242
3Central Florida7225
4SMU0187
5Memphis0162
6East Carolina0157
7Tulane0115
8Tulsa093
9South Florida071
10Navy061
11Temple028

The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.

AACConfOverall
Cincinnati8-012-1
Houston8-011-2
Central Florida7-110-2
SMU5-37-5
East Carolina4-46-6
Memphis3-56-6
Tulsa3-56-6
Tulane2-65-7
South Florida2-63-9
Navy2-63-9
Temple0-82-10

Cincinnati picked to win AAC Championship Game.

March 18, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, March 19, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:07 pm

Saturday’s Games–NCAA, NIT, CBI, and The Basketball Classic

Saturday, March 19, 2022
TeamTeamSpread
BaylorNorth Carolina7.3
KansasCreighton9.0
TennesseeMichigan5.4
ProvidenceRichmond3.5
UCLASaint Mary’s4.6
Murray St.Saint Peter’s9.0
ArkansasNew Mexico St.7.9
GonzagaMemphis12.0
Texas A&MOregon3.9
Wake ForestVCU4.8
BYUNorthern Iowa6.7
DrakePurdue Ft. Wayne9.5
Stephen F. AustinUNC Asheville5.7
Middle TennesseeCal Baptist6.8
OhioRice5.9
UTEPWestern Illinois6.6
PortlandNew Orleans8.2

TeamO-EffD-EffSOS37+ 3ptOReb%-45% vs. 2ptFT Rate 37R + T New RateR+T Old Rate
Baylor91461.134.636.349.528.511.417.4
N. Carolina276458.036.230.448.329.610.015.7
Kansas62961.835.533.447.932.85.212.1
Creighton1241858.630.728.643.526.0-1.84.0
Tennessee36361.835.932.845.829.68.513.9
Michigan199161.634.031.250.828.97.812.5
Providence317957.534.330.546.638.52.17.4
Richmond6810454.833.722.450.030.9-3.41.5
UCLA151259.435.129.847.336.85.717.3
Saint Mary’s63957.335.027.846.023.97.313.2
Murray St.354048.435.336.048.331.315.224.0
Saint Peter’s2593448.335.332.043.537.15.09.0
Arkansas401658.430.730.846.437.97.112.8
N. Mexico St.877350.732.633.745.634.88.114.5
Gonzaga1756.937.929.041.629.87.221.8
Memphis503157.335.937.545.338.46.711.7

Bracketnomics Predictions

Baylor vs. North Carolina

Baylor is just a tad stronger across the board and has a lot more NCAA Tournament experience on the bench and on the court.  Baylor should win but not by a large margin.

Kansas vs. Creighton

This has all the looks of a large margin victory for the Jayhawks   Creighton’s offense looks to be in trouble against Kansas’s defense, and spurtability heavily favors KU.

Tennessee vs. Michigan

This should be a close game with several lead changes.  Michigan’s interior defense may be a tad vulnerable to Tennessee’s inside muscle, but, the Wolverines’ offense is considerably better overall than Tennessee’s offense.  Schedule strength and R+T Ratings are basically a wash.  Solely on the interior defense, Tennessee gets the nod.

Providence vs. Richmond

Can Richmond make the Sweet 16 with an R+T Rating that shows the Spiders receive little or no Spurtability?  Providence is not a pushover, but the Friars are most likely not going to advance past the Sweet 16.  Providence has the advantage in every one of these stats.  Richmond beat Iowa by playing a much better half court game than the Big Ten Tournament champs.  Providence’s win over South Dakota St. was a little more hustle points over half court game, and it gets really difficult for a team to keep winning the half court game over and over, especially when the other team has the decided Spurtability advantage.  Look for the Friars to advance.

UCLA vs. Saint Mary’s

This game could stay close for quite a long time.  UCLA has the clear-cut edge in the essential stats, but the edge is not large enough to call the Bruins a prohibitive favorite.  The key here is the FT rate, where UCLA might be a little quicker and force SMC to commit more than their usual number of fouls.  UCLA needs to keep its starters on the floor more than the average tournament team, and the Gaels do not figure to force key players to go to the bench with foul trouble.  Give the edge to the Bruins but don’t expect a big blowout.

Murray St. vs. Saint Peter’s

In all but one respect, these teams are rather evenly matched.  Murray State has a huge R+T Rating advantage, 15 points to be exact in the old counting stat version and three times more in the rate stat version.  What this means is that the Racers are likely to enjoy one major spurt or multiple smaller spurts and pull away from the Peacocks at some point in the game.  Saint Peter’s won’t have the ability to play catch-up after a large spurt.  The Racers will be an interesting Sweet 16 team.

Arkansas vs. New Mexico St.

This game has special meaning with yours truly, ye old PiRate Captain.  Five years ago, when he was the head coach at Nevada, I called Eric Musselman the best Mid-Major head coach and a sure thing success wherever he ended up in a power conference.  When he was hired by Arkansas, I predicted he would return the Razorbacks to the prominence they enjoyed under Eddie Sutton and Nolan Richardson and have Arkansas competing for a shot at the Final Four within five years.  He is only in year three, and he almost made the Final Four last year.  

New Mexico State head coach Chris Jans is my current top Mid-Major coach in college basketball.  It is my belief that when he gets a power five coaching job, he too will produce the results Muss is producing in Fayetteville.

Now, about this game: Arkansas has a bit too much defensive abilities for the Aggies to consistently score in this game.  The difference in schedule strength and the slight evidence that the Razorbacks have a little more quickness is enough to call this one in Arkansas’s favor.  Don’t discount NMSU; Jans can coach undermanned talent and keep games close.  The Aggies can keep this game close and even have a chance to pull the upset, but the Razorbacks have about a 65% chance of winning this game.  Arky goes to the Sweet 16 again.

Gonzaga vs. Memphis

Don’t automatically dismiss Memphis in this game.  While Gonzaga has a decisive Bracketnomics advantage, Memphis has two superior aspects that can be used to exploit the 1-seed, and both work together to strengthen the advantages.  

Memphis has an exceptional offensive rebounding advantage in this game.  The Tigers are one of a small handful that have an O Reb% in excess of the magical 37%.  Memphis also exceeds the 37% margin in FT rate, which shows the Tigers have explosive quickness to the rim.  If Gonzaga gets into foul trouble in this game, all their other advantages will be neutralized.

Gonzaga is still the pick here, but this game should be a lot closer than expected, and Memphis will have a chance to pull off the big upset if Gonzaga fouls too much.

March 6, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, March 6, 2022

Sunday’s Conference Tournaments
America East Conference–Quarterfinals
Higher Seed at Home
Home TeamLower SeedSpread
VermontNJIT21.5
Maryland Baltimore Co.UMass Lowell2.5
New HampshireBinghamton6.6
HartfordAlbany3.7
Big South Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Charlotte
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
LongwoodWinthrop-1.2
Colonial Athletic Association–Quarterfinals
Charlotte
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
TowsonNortheastern11.9
DrexelDelaware0.9
UNC WilmingtonElon3.4
HofstraCharleston2.6
Missouri Valley Conference CHAMPIONSHIP
St. Louis (Arch Madness)
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
DrakeLoyola (Chi.)4.2
Patriot League–Semifinals
Higher Seed at Home
HomeVisitorSpread
ColgateLehigh11.7
Navy
Southern Conference–Semifinals
Asheville, NC
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
ChattanoogaWofford2.4
FurmanSamford8.5
Summit League–Quarterfinals Continue
Sioux Falls, SD
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Kansas CitySouth Dakota0.1
Oral RobertsWestern Illinois6.0
Sun Belt Conference–Semifinals
Pensacola, FL
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
TroyLouisiana-0.3
Appalachian St.Georgia St.-0.4

Sunday’s Regularly Scheduled Games
Home TeamVisitorSpread
MemphisHouston-3.7
RutgersPenn St.4.2
Ohio St.Michigan3.7
WisconsinNebraska13.1
TulsaCentral Florida-2.5
TempleSouth Florida9.1
SMUTulane7.4
Michigan St.Maryland5.9
IllinoisIowa2.0
NorthwesternMinnesota5.8

Dance Tickets Punched

1Murray St.Ohio Valley30-2

February 28, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:10 pm
Date2/28/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1ArizonaGonzagaBaylorKansas
2AuburnDukeKentuckyPurdue
3Texas TechVillanovaWisconsinTennessee
4ProvidenceIllinoisConnecticutUCLA
5TexasArkansasOhio St.Alabama
6HoustonSaint Mary’sUSCMichigan St.
7LSUMarquetteIowaIowa St.
8Colorado St.Boise St.Seton HallMurray St.
9WyomingTCUNotre DameXavier
10CreightonSan FranciscoWake ForestDavidson
11North TexasNorth CarolinaSan Diego St.Miami (Fla.)
12IonaSouth Dakota St.IndianaMemphisMichiganSMU
13ChattanoogaNew Mexico St.ToledoVermont
14TowsonTexas St.PrincetonNorthern Iowa
15Jacksonville St.Montana St.Long Beach St.Longwood
16ColgatePurdue Ft. WayneBryantNicholls St.Norfolk St.Texas Southern

Best of the Rest

69Loyola (Chi.)
70BYU
71Rutgers
72Florida
73VCU
74Virginia Tech
75Oregon
76St. Bonaventure
77Dayton
78Oklahoma
79Mississippi St.
80Belmont
Older Posts »

Blog at WordPress.com.