Home | Visitor | Spread |
Bradley | Drake | 1.7 |
Canisius | Fairfield | 0.9 |
Colorado | UCLA | -6.6 |
Duquesne | Davidson | 5.1 |
Georgetown | Providence | -9.4 |
Illinois Chicago | Southern Illinois | -7.2 |
Illinois St. | Evansville | 9.1 |
Indiana St. | Missouri St. | 7.3 |
Iona | Siena | 10.3 |
Maryland | Northwestern | 5.5 |
Memphis | Cincinnati | 5.6 |
Michigan | Wisconsin | 5.2 |
Murray St. | Valparaiso | 5.5 |
Niagara | Saint Peter’s | 5.5 |
Northern Iowa | Belmont | -2.2 |
Ohio St. | Illinois | -0.8 |
Penn St. | Rutgers | 0.6 |
Quinnipiac | Manhattan | 9.5 |
Rider | Mount St. Mary’s | 8.1 |
St. Bonaventure | Saint Joseph’s | 3.8 |
Stanford | Washington | 4.0 |
Stephen F. Austin | Cal Baptist | 4.0 |
Tulane | Wichita St. | 6.0 |
Tulsa | Central Florida | -12.5 |
February 26, 2023
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 26, 2023
February 23, 2023
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, February 23, 2023
Home | Visitor | Spread |
Cal St. Fullerton | UC Davis | 3.1 |
Cal St. Northridge | Cal St. Bakersfield | 0.2 |
California | Washington | -6.4 |
Charleston | Towson | 9.1 |
Charlotte | North Texas | -2.5 |
Colorado | USC | 2.4 |
Detroit | Northern Kentucky | 1.9 |
Drexel | Northeastern | 7.4 |
Florida Atlantic | UTSA | 20.7 |
Florida Intl. | UTEP | 0.6 |
Gardner-Webb | Longwood | 1.3 |
Gonzaga | San Diego | 21.0 |
Green Bay | Cleveland St. | -13.7 |
Hampton | Monmouth | 3.8 |
Houston Christian | McNeese St. | 0.0 |
Idaho St. | Idaho | 4.2 |
Illinois | Northwestern | 5.5 |
Incarnate Word | Northwestern St. | -6.8 |
IUPUI | Robert Morris | -10.2 |
Lamar | Southeastern Louisiana | -5.0 |
Lindenwood | Southeast Missouri St. | -3.1 |
Merrimack | Central Connecticut St. | 3.6 |
Milwaukee | Purdue Ft. Wayne | 1.9 |
Montana | Portland St. | 6.3 |
Montana St. | Sacramento St. | 9.6 |
New Orleans | Nicholls St. | -6.8 |
North Carolina A&T | Delaware | -1.9 |
North Dakota | Western Illinois | 2.4 |
North Dakota St. | St. Thomas (MN) | 1.5 |
Oakland | Wright St. | -2.9 |
Ohio St. | Penn St. | 2.8 |
Rutgers | Michigan | 5.9 |
Sacred Heart | St. Francis (NY) | 6.5 |
Saint Mary’s | Pacific | 19.3 |
Sam Houston | Cal Baptist | 8.7 |
San Francisco | Portland | 7.7 |
Santa Clara | Pepperdine | 10.3 |
SIU Edwardsville | Little Rock | 8.1 |
South Dakota | Oral Roberts | -13.7 |
South Dakota St. | UMKC | 9.1 |
Southern Indiana | Tennessee Tech | 4.5 |
St. Francis (PA) | Fairleigh Dickinson | 1.0 |
Stanford | Washington St. | 0.8 |
Tarleton St. | Utah Valley | -4.3 |
Texas A&M-CC | Texas A&M-Commerce | 10.2 |
UAB | Rice | 11.5 |
UC Irvine | UC San Diego | 14.6 |
UC Santa Barbara | Long Beach St. | 5.3 |
UNC Wilmington | Stony Brook | 12.2 |
UT Arlington | Southern Utah | -5.4 |
UT Martin | Tennessee St. | 4.3 |
UT-Rio Grande Valley | Utah Tech | -1.4 |
Utah | UCLA | -6.2 |
Wagner | Stonehill College | 4.3 |
Weber St. | Eastern Washington | -2.5 |
Western Kentucky | Louisiana Tech | 1.3 |
Wichita St. | Memphis | -5.1 |
William & Mary | Elon | 2.6 |
February 19, 2023
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 19, 2023
Home | Visitor | Spread |
Bellarmine | Central Arkansas | 8.4 |
Boise St. | UNLV | 8.3 |
Butler | Georgetown | 8.5 |
Central Florida | Cincinnati | 2.7 |
Chicago St. | Hartford | 13.6 |
Cleveland St. | Northern Kentucky | 2.5 |
Detroit | IUPUI | 17.3 |
Drake | Belmont | 6.8 |
Fairfield | Manhattan | 5.8 |
Furman | East Tennessee St. | 13.1 |
Houston | Memphis | 11.6 |
Illinois Chicago | Valparaiso | 1.3 |
Marist | Niagara | -1.9 |
Mount St. Mary’s | Canisius | 1.8 |
Nebraska | Maryland | -5.3 |
North Carolina St. | North Carolina | 1.9 |
Northwestern | Iowa | 0.1 |
Purdue | Ohio St. | 9.5 |
Purdue Ft. Wayne | Wright St. | -0.3 |
Quinnipiac | Rider | 3.4 |
Saint Peter’s | Iona | -11.8 |
SMU | East Carolina | 4.4 |
Southern Illinois | Bradley | -2.6 |
St. Bonaventure | George Washington | 6.2 |
Temple | Tulsa | 13.4 |
Washington St. | Oregon | 0.7 |
February 17, 2023
PiRate Ratings Bracketology
Date | 2/17/2023 | |||||
Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team |
1 | Alabama | Houston | Kansas | Purdue | ||
2 | Texas | Baylor | UCLA | Tennessee | ||
3 | Arizona | Marquette | Connecticut | Virginia | ||
4 | Iowa St. | Gonzaga | Xavier | Kansas St. | ||
5 | Indiana | Miami (Fla) | Saint Mary’s | San Diego St. | ||
6 | Creighton | TCU | Northwestern | Michigan St. | ||
7 | Iowa | Maryland | Illinois | Providence | ||
8 | Missouri | Duke | Auburn | Rutgers | ||
9 | Oklahoma St. | Nevada | North Carolina St. | Boise St. | ||
10 | West Virginia | Florida Atlantic | Arkansas | Texas A&M | ||
11 | Pittsburgh | Kentucky | Mississippi St. | Memphis | Wisconsin | USC |
12 | Charleston | Oral Roberts | Toledo | Drake | ||
13 | VCU | Southern Miss. | Liberty | Utah Valley | ||
14 | UCSB | Yale | Samford | Iona | ||
15 | Colgate | E. Washington | Vermont | Youngstown St. | ||
16 | UNC Asheville | Morehead St. | Alcorn St. | Northwestern St. | Howard | Fairleigh Dickinson |
Last 4 Byes: West Virginia, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh
Last 4 In: Mississippi St., Memphis, Wisconsin, USC
First 4 Out: North Carolina, Clemson, Penn St., Oregon
Next 4 Out: New Mexico, Utah St., North Texas, Arizona St.
February 12, 2023
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 12, 2023
Home | Visitor | Spread |
Canisius | Quinnipiac | -5.4 |
Cleveland St. | Youngstown St. | -1.8 |
Evansville | Missouri St. | -9.9 |
Fairfield | Mount St. Mary’s | 5.0 |
Manhattan | Saint Peter’s | 1.6 |
Memphis | Temple | 10.6 |
Minnesota | Iowa | -11.7 |
Niagara | Iona | -7.7 |
Northern Kentucky | IUPUI | 17.6 |
Northwestern | Purdue | -4.4 |
Ohio St. | Michigan St. | 3.5 |
Purdue Fort Wayne | Robert Morris | 5.8 |
Siena | Marist | 10.3 |
UNC Greensboro | Wofford | 9.0 |
Wichita St. | SMU | 7.1 |
January 23, 2023
PiRate Ratings Bracketology
Date | 1/23/2023 | |||||
Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team |
1 | Purdue | Alabama | Kansas | Houston | ||
2 | Tennessee | Texas | UCLA | Arizona | ||
3 | Kansas St. | Iowa St. | Virginia | Connecticut | ||
4 | Gonzaga | TCU | Xavier | Marquette | ||
5 | Baylor | Auburn | Rutgers | Miami (Fla) | ||
6 | Duke | Saint Mary’s | San Diego St. | Providence | ||
7 | North Carolina | Indiana | New Mexico | Illinois | ||
8 | North Carolina St. | Arkansas | Florida Atlantic | Michigan St. | ||
9 | Iowa | Boise St. | Clemson | Creighton | ||
10 | Ohio St. | Missouri | Wisconsin | Charleston | ||
11 | Memphis | Northwestern | Arizona St. | West Virginia | Maryland | |
12 | Kent St. | VCU | Oral Roberts | Pittsburgh | Penn St. | |
13 | Louisiana | Liberty | Seattle | Belmont | ||
14 | UC Santa Barbara | Siena | Princeton | Colgate | ||
15 | Samford | Northern Kentucky | UMass Lowell | Eastern Washington | ||
16 | UNC Asheville | UT-Martin | Southern | Nicholls St. | Md. Eastern Shore | St. Francis PA |
Last 4 Byes: Wisconsin, Memphis, Northwestern, Arizona St.
Last 4 In: West Virginia, Maryland, Pittsburgh, Penn St.
First 4 Out: USC, Nevada, Utah St., Oklahoma St.
Next 4 Out: Kentucky, Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech
August 14, 2022
American Athletic Conference Preview
Just when a Group of 5 Conference is getting really good with maybe three teams strong enough to contend for a 2022-23 Playoff berth, said league is about to lose all three really good teams. Cincinnati broke through the insiders’ club last year, when the Bearcats ran the table in the regular season and became the first G5 school to receive a bid to the National Championship Playoffs. It was the second consecutive year that Cinti won every regular season game.
Alas, the Bearcats are headed to the Big 12 Conference. Going with them are the other two really good teams–Houston and Central Florida. A host of Conference USA teams will replace the really good teams, and this league will fall back in the Group of 5 pecking order.
This will be one interesting race this year. Houston and Cincinnati are not scheduled to play, but there is a decent chance they will face each other in game 13 in December.
American Athletic Conference Preseason PiRate Ratings
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Cincinnati | 111.2 | 110.3 | 112.8 | 111.4 |
Houston | 105.0 | 104.7 | 106.5 | 105.4 |
UCF | 103.8 | 104.5 | 104.6 | 104.3 |
SMU | 102.2 | 101.3 | 102.3 | 101.9 |
East Carolina | 99.5 | 99.1 | 100.4 | 99.7 |
Tulane | 98.6 | 97.7 | 97.9 | 98.1 |
Memphis | 97.0 | 97.5 | 96.9 | 97.1 |
Tulsa | 95.8 | 94.8 | 95.7 | 95.4 |
USF | 96.2 | 94.7 | 95.1 | 95.3 |
Navy | 92.9 | 92.1 | 91.3 | 92.1 |
Temple | 80.9 | 83.4 | 78.6 | 81.0 |
AAC | 98.5 | 98.2 | 98.4 | 98.3 |
American Athletic Conference Official Media Poll
Votes | |||
# | Team | 1st Place | Overall |
1 | Houston | 7 | 243 |
2 | Cincinnati | 10 | 242 |
3 | Central Florida | 7 | 225 |
4 | SMU | 0 | 187 |
5 | Memphis | 0 | 162 |
6 | East Carolina | 0 | 157 |
7 | Tulane | 0 | 115 |
8 | Tulsa | 0 | 93 |
9 | South Florida | 0 | 71 |
10 | Navy | 0 | 61 |
11 | Temple | 0 | 28 |
The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.
AAC | Conf | Overall |
Cincinnati | 8-0 | 12-1 |
Houston | 8-0 | 11-2 |
Central Florida | 7-1 | 10-2 |
SMU | 5-3 | 7-5 |
East Carolina | 4-4 | 6-6 |
Memphis | 3-5 | 6-6 |
Tulsa | 3-5 | 6-6 |
Tulane | 2-6 | 5-7 |
South Florida | 2-6 | 3-9 |
Navy | 2-6 | 3-9 |
Temple | 0-8 | 2-10 |
Cincinnati picked to win AAC Championship Game.
March 18, 2022
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, March 19, 2022
Saturday’s Games–NCAA, NIT, CBI, and The Basketball Classic
Saturday, March 19, 2022 | ||
Team | Team | Spread |
Baylor | North Carolina | 7.3 |
Kansas | Creighton | 9.0 |
Tennessee | Michigan | 5.4 |
Providence | Richmond | 3.5 |
UCLA | Saint Mary’s | 4.6 |
Murray St. | Saint Peter’s | 9.0 |
Arkansas | New Mexico St. | 7.9 |
Gonzaga | Memphis | 12.0 |
Texas A&M | Oregon | 3.9 |
Wake Forest | VCU | 4.8 |
BYU | Northern Iowa | 6.7 |
Drake | Purdue Ft. Wayne | 9.5 |
Stephen F. Austin | UNC Asheville | 5.7 |
Middle Tennessee | Cal Baptist | 6.8 |
Ohio | Rice | 5.9 |
UTEP | Western Illinois | 6.6 |
Portland | New Orleans | 8.2 |
Team | O-Eff | D-Eff | SOS | 37+ 3pt | OReb% | -45% vs. 2pt | FT Rate 37 | R + T New Rate | R+T Old Rate |
Baylor | 9 | 14 | 61.1 | 34.6 | 36.3 | 49.5 | 28.5 | 11.4 | 17.4 |
N. Carolina | 27 | 64 | 58.0 | 36.2 | 30.4 | 48.3 | 29.6 | 10.0 | 15.7 |
Kansas | 6 | 29 | 61.8 | 35.5 | 33.4 | 47.9 | 32.8 | 5.2 | 12.1 |
Creighton | 124 | 18 | 58.6 | 30.7 | 28.6 | 43.5 | 26.0 | -1.8 | 4.0 |
Tennessee | 36 | 3 | 61.8 | 35.9 | 32.8 | 45.8 | 29.6 | 8.5 | 13.9 |
Michigan | 19 | 91 | 61.6 | 34.0 | 31.2 | 50.8 | 28.9 | 7.8 | 12.5 |
Providence | 31 | 79 | 57.5 | 34.3 | 30.5 | 46.6 | 38.5 | 2.1 | 7.4 |
Richmond | 68 | 104 | 54.8 | 33.7 | 22.4 | 50.0 | 30.9 | -3.4 | 1.5 |
UCLA | 15 | 12 | 59.4 | 35.1 | 29.8 | 47.3 | 36.8 | 5.7 | 17.3 |
Saint Mary’s | 63 | 9 | 57.3 | 35.0 | 27.8 | 46.0 | 23.9 | 7.3 | 13.2 |
Murray St. | 35 | 40 | 48.4 | 35.3 | 36.0 | 48.3 | 31.3 | 15.2 | 24.0 |
Saint Peter’s | 259 | 34 | 48.3 | 35.3 | 32.0 | 43.5 | 37.1 | 5.0 | 9.0 |
Arkansas | 40 | 16 | 58.4 | 30.7 | 30.8 | 46.4 | 37.9 | 7.1 | 12.8 |
N. Mexico St. | 87 | 73 | 50.7 | 32.6 | 33.7 | 45.6 | 34.8 | 8.1 | 14.5 |
Gonzaga | 1 | 7 | 56.9 | 37.9 | 29.0 | 41.6 | 29.8 | 7.2 | 21.8 |
Memphis | 50 | 31 | 57.3 | 35.9 | 37.5 | 45.3 | 38.4 | 6.7 | 11.7 |
Bracketnomics Predictions
Baylor vs. North Carolina
Baylor is just a tad stronger across the board and has a lot more NCAA Tournament experience on the bench and on the court. Baylor should win but not by a large margin.
Kansas vs. Creighton
This has all the looks of a large margin victory for the Jayhawks Creighton’s offense looks to be in trouble against Kansas’s defense, and spurtability heavily favors KU.
Tennessee vs. Michigan
This should be a close game with several lead changes. Michigan’s interior defense may be a tad vulnerable to Tennessee’s inside muscle, but, the Wolverines’ offense is considerably better overall than Tennessee’s offense. Schedule strength and R+T Ratings are basically a wash. Solely on the interior defense, Tennessee gets the nod.
Providence vs. Richmond
Can Richmond make the Sweet 16 with an R+T Rating that shows the Spiders receive little or no Spurtability? Providence is not a pushover, but the Friars are most likely not going to advance past the Sweet 16. Providence has the advantage in every one of these stats. Richmond beat Iowa by playing a much better half court game than the Big Ten Tournament champs. Providence’s win over South Dakota St. was a little more hustle points over half court game, and it gets really difficult for a team to keep winning the half court game over and over, especially when the other team has the decided Spurtability advantage. Look for the Friars to advance.
UCLA vs. Saint Mary’s
This game could stay close for quite a long time. UCLA has the clear-cut edge in the essential stats, but the edge is not large enough to call the Bruins a prohibitive favorite. The key here is the FT rate, where UCLA might be a little quicker and force SMC to commit more than their usual number of fouls. UCLA needs to keep its starters on the floor more than the average tournament team, and the Gaels do not figure to force key players to go to the bench with foul trouble. Give the edge to the Bruins but don’t expect a big blowout.
Murray St. vs. Saint Peter’s
In all but one respect, these teams are rather evenly matched. Murray State has a huge R+T Rating advantage, 15 points to be exact in the old counting stat version and three times more in the rate stat version. What this means is that the Racers are likely to enjoy one major spurt or multiple smaller spurts and pull away from the Peacocks at some point in the game. Saint Peter’s won’t have the ability to play catch-up after a large spurt. The Racers will be an interesting Sweet 16 team.
Arkansas vs. New Mexico St.
This game has special meaning with yours truly, ye old PiRate Captain. Five years ago, when he was the head coach at Nevada, I called Eric Musselman the best Mid-Major head coach and a sure thing success wherever he ended up in a power conference. When he was hired by Arkansas, I predicted he would return the Razorbacks to the prominence they enjoyed under Eddie Sutton and Nolan Richardson and have Arkansas competing for a shot at the Final Four within five years. He is only in year three, and he almost made the Final Four last year.
New Mexico State head coach Chris Jans is my current top Mid-Major coach in college basketball. It is my belief that when he gets a power five coaching job, he too will produce the results Muss is producing in Fayetteville.
Now, about this game: Arkansas has a bit too much defensive abilities for the Aggies to consistently score in this game. The difference in schedule strength and the slight evidence that the Razorbacks have a little more quickness is enough to call this one in Arkansas’s favor. Don’t discount NMSU; Jans can coach undermanned talent and keep games close. The Aggies can keep this game close and even have a chance to pull the upset, but the Razorbacks have about a 65% chance of winning this game. Arky goes to the Sweet 16 again.
Gonzaga vs. Memphis
Don’t automatically dismiss Memphis in this game. While Gonzaga has a decisive Bracketnomics advantage, Memphis has two superior aspects that can be used to exploit the 1-seed, and both work together to strengthen the advantages.
Memphis has an exceptional offensive rebounding advantage in this game. The Tigers are one of a small handful that have an O Reb% in excess of the magical 37%. Memphis also exceeds the 37% margin in FT rate, which shows the Tigers have explosive quickness to the rim. If Gonzaga gets into foul trouble in this game, all their other advantages will be neutralized.
Gonzaga is still the pick here, but this game should be a lot closer than expected, and Memphis will have a chance to pull off the big upset if Gonzaga fouls too much.
March 6, 2022
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, March 6, 2022
Sunday’s Conference Tournaments | ||
America East Conference–Quarterfinals | ||
Higher Seed at Home | ||
Home Team | Lower Seed | Spread |
Vermont | NJIT | 21.5 |
Maryland Baltimore Co. | UMass Lowell | 2.5 |
New Hampshire | Binghamton | 6.6 |
Hartford | Albany | 3.7 |
Big South Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP | ||
Charlotte | ||
Higher Seed | Lower Seed | Spread |
Longwood | Winthrop | -1.2 |
Colonial Athletic Association–Quarterfinals | ||
Charlotte | ||
Higher Seed | Lower Seed | Spread |
Towson | Northeastern | 11.9 |
Drexel | Delaware | 0.9 |
UNC Wilmington | Elon | 3.4 |
Hofstra | Charleston | 2.6 |
Missouri Valley Conference CHAMPIONSHIP | ||
St. Louis (Arch Madness) | ||
Higher Seed | Lower Seed | Spread |
Drake | Loyola (Chi.) | 4.2 |
Patriot League–Semifinals | ||
Higher Seed at Home | ||
Home | Visitor | Spread |
Colgate | Lehigh | 11.7 |
Navy | ||
Southern Conference–Semifinals | ||
Asheville, NC | ||
Higher Seed | Lower Seed | Spread |
Chattanooga | Wofford | 2.4 |
Furman | Samford | 8.5 |
Summit League–Quarterfinals Continue | ||
Sioux Falls, SD | ||
Higher Seed | Lower Seed | Spread |
Kansas City | South Dakota | 0.1 |
Oral Roberts | Western Illinois | 6.0 |
Sun Belt Conference–Semifinals | ||
Pensacola, FL | ||
Higher Seed | Lower Seed | Spread |
Troy | Louisiana | -0.3 |
Appalachian St. | Georgia St. | -0.4 |
Sunday’s Regularly Scheduled Games | ||
Home Team | Visitor | Spread |
Memphis | Houston | -3.7 |
Rutgers | Penn St. | 4.2 |
Ohio St. | Michigan | 3.7 |
Wisconsin | Nebraska | 13.1 |
Tulsa | Central Florida | -2.5 |
Temple | South Florida | 9.1 |
SMU | Tulane | 7.4 |
Michigan St. | Maryland | 5.9 |
Illinois | Iowa | 2.0 |
Northwestern | Minnesota | 5.8 |
Dance Tickets Punched
1 | Murray St. | Ohio Valley | 30-2 |
February 28, 2022
PiRate Ratings Bracketology
Date | 2/28/2022 | |||||
Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team |
1 | Arizona | Gonzaga | Baylor | Kansas | ||
2 | Auburn | Duke | Kentucky | Purdue | ||
3 | Texas Tech | Villanova | Wisconsin | Tennessee | ||
4 | Providence | Illinois | Connecticut | UCLA | ||
5 | Texas | Arkansas | Ohio St. | Alabama | ||
6 | Houston | Saint Mary’s | USC | Michigan St. | ||
7 | LSU | Marquette | Iowa | Iowa St. | ||
8 | Colorado St. | Boise St. | Seton Hall | Murray St. | ||
9 | Wyoming | TCU | Notre Dame | Xavier | ||
10 | Creighton | San Francisco | Wake Forest | Davidson | ||
11 | North Texas | North Carolina | San Diego St. | Miami (Fla.) | ||
12 | Iona | South Dakota St. | Indiana | Memphis | Michigan | SMU |
13 | Chattanooga | New Mexico St. | Toledo | Vermont | ||
14 | Towson | Texas St. | Princeton | Northern Iowa | ||
15 | Jacksonville St. | Montana St. | Long Beach St. | Longwood | ||
16 | Colgate | Purdue Ft. Wayne | Bryant | Nicholls St. | Norfolk St. | Texas Southern |
Best of the Rest
69 | Loyola (Chi.) |
70 | BYU |
71 | Rutgers |
72 | Florida |
73 | VCU |
74 | Virginia Tech |
75 | Oregon |
76 | St. Bonaventure |
77 | Dayton |
78 | Oklahoma |
79 | Mississippi St. |
80 | Belmont |