PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 26, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Bradley	Drake	1.7
Canisius	Fairfield	0.9
Colorado	UCLA	-6.6
Duquesne	Davidson	5.1
Georgetown	Providence	-9.4
Illinois Chicago	Southern Illinois	-7.2
Illinois St.	Evansville	9.1
Indiana St.	Missouri St.	7.3
Iona	Siena	10.3
Maryland	Northwestern	5.5
Memphis	Cincinnati	5.6
Michigan	Wisconsin	5.2
Murray St.	Valparaiso	5.5
Niagara	Saint Peter’s	5.5
Northern Iowa	Belmont	-2.2
Ohio St.	Illinois	-0.8
Penn St.	Rutgers	0.6
Quinnipiac	Manhattan	9.5
Rider	Mount St. Mary’s	8.1
St. Bonaventure	Saint Joseph’s	3.8
Stanford	Washington	4.0
Stephen F. Austin	Cal Baptist	4.0
Tulane	Wichita St.	6.0
Tulsa	Central Florida	-12.5

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, February 23, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Cal St. Fullerton	UC Davis	3.1
Cal St. Northridge	Cal St. Bakersfield	0.2
California	Washington	-6.4
Charleston	Towson	9.1
Charlotte	North Texas	-2.5
Colorado	USC	2.4
Detroit	Northern Kentucky	1.9
Drexel	Northeastern	7.4
Florida Atlantic	UTSA	20.7
Florida Intl.	UTEP	0.6
Gardner-Webb	Longwood	1.3
Gonzaga	San Diego	21.0
Green Bay	Cleveland St.	-13.7
Hampton	Monmouth	3.8
Houston Christian	McNeese St.	0.0
Idaho St.	Idaho	4.2
Illinois	Northwestern	5.5
Incarnate Word	Northwestern St.	-6.8
IUPUI	Robert Morris	-10.2
Lamar	Southeastern Louisiana	-5.0
Lindenwood	Southeast Missouri St.	-3.1
Merrimack	Central Connecticut St.	3.6
Milwaukee	Purdue Ft. Wayne	1.9
Montana	Portland St.	6.3
Montana St.	Sacramento St.	9.6
New Orleans	Nicholls St.	-6.8
North Carolina A&T	Delaware	-1.9
North Dakota	Western Illinois	2.4
North Dakota St.	St. Thomas (MN)	1.5
Oakland	Wright St.	-2.9
Ohio St.	Penn St.	2.8
Rutgers	Michigan	5.9
Sacred Heart	St. Francis (NY)	6.5
Saint Mary’s	Pacific	19.3
Sam Houston	Cal Baptist	8.7
San Francisco	Portland	7.7
Santa Clara	Pepperdine	10.3
SIU Edwardsville	Little Rock	8.1
South Dakota	Oral Roberts	-13.7
South Dakota St.	UMKC	9.1
Southern Indiana	Tennessee Tech	4.5
St. Francis (PA)	Fairleigh Dickinson	1.0
Stanford	Washington St.	0.8
Tarleton St.	Utah Valley	-4.3
Texas A&M-CC	Texas A&M-Commerce	10.2
UAB	Rice	11.5
UC Irvine	UC San Diego	14.6
UC Santa Barbara	Long Beach St.	5.3
UNC Wilmington	Stony Brook	12.2
UT Arlington	Southern Utah	-5.4
UT Martin	Tennessee St.	4.3
UT-Rio Grande Valley	Utah Tech	-1.4
Utah	UCLA	-6.2
Wagner	Stonehill College	4.3
Weber St.	Eastern Washington	-2.5
Western Kentucky	Louisiana Tech	1.3
Wichita St.	Memphis	-5.1
William & Mary	Elon	2.6

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 19, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Bellarmine	Central Arkansas	8.4
Boise St.	UNLV	8.3
Butler	Georgetown	8.5
Central Florida	Cincinnati	2.7
Chicago St.	Hartford	13.6
Cleveland St.	Northern Kentucky	2.5
Detroit	IUPUI	17.3
Drake	Belmont	6.8
Fairfield	Manhattan	5.8
Furman	East Tennessee St.	13.1
Houston	Memphis	11.6
Illinois Chicago	Valparaiso	1.3
Marist	Niagara	-1.9
Mount St. Mary’s	Canisius	1.8
Nebraska	Maryland	-5.3
North Carolina St.	North Carolina	1.9
Northwestern	Iowa	0.1
Purdue	Ohio St.	9.5
Purdue Ft. Wayne	Wright St.	-0.3
Quinnipiac	Rider	3.4
Saint Peter’s	Iona	-11.8
SMU	East Carolina	4.4
Southern Illinois	Bradley	-2.6
St. Bonaventure	George Washington	6.2
Temple	Tulsa	13.4
Washington St.	Oregon	0.7

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	2/17/2023
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Alabama	Houston	Kansas	Purdue
2	Texas	Baylor	UCLA	Tennessee
3	Arizona	Marquette	Connecticut	Virginia
4	Iowa St.	Gonzaga	Xavier	Kansas St.
5	Indiana	Miami (Fla)	Saint Mary’s	San Diego St.
6	Creighton	TCU	Northwestern	Michigan St.
7	Iowa	Maryland	Illinois	Providence
8	Missouri	Duke	Auburn	Rutgers
9	Oklahoma St.	Nevada	North Carolina St.	Boise St.
10	West Virginia	Florida Atlantic	Arkansas	Texas A&M
11	Pittsburgh	Kentucky	Mississippi St.	Memphis	Wisconsin	USC
12	Charleston	Oral Roberts	Toledo	Drake
13	VCU	Southern Miss.	Liberty	Utah Valley
14	UCSB	Yale	Samford	Iona
15	Colgate	E. Washington	Vermont	Youngstown St.
16	UNC Asheville	Morehead St.	Alcorn St.	Northwestern St.	Howard	Fairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: West Virginia, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh

Last 4 In: Mississippi St., Memphis, Wisconsin, USC

First 4 Out: North Carolina, Clemson, Penn St., Oregon

Next 4 Out: New Mexico, Utah St., North Texas, Arizona St.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 12, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Canisius	Quinnipiac	-5.4
Cleveland St.	Youngstown St.	-1.8
Evansville	Missouri St.	-9.9
Fairfield	Mount St. Mary’s	5.0
Manhattan	Saint Peter’s	1.6
Memphis	Temple	10.6
Minnesota	Iowa	-11.7
Niagara	Iona	-7.7
Northern Kentucky	IUPUI	17.6
Northwestern	Purdue	-4.4
Ohio St.	Michigan St.	3.5
Purdue Fort Wayne	Robert Morris	5.8
Siena	Marist	10.3
UNC Greensboro	Wofford	9.0
Wichita St.	SMU	7.1

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	1/23/2023
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Purdue	Alabama	Kansas	Houston
2	Tennessee	Texas	UCLA	Arizona
3	Kansas St.	Iowa St.	Virginia	Connecticut
4	Gonzaga	TCU	Xavier	Marquette
5	Baylor	Auburn	Rutgers	Miami (Fla)
6	Duke	Saint Mary’s	San Diego St.	Providence
7	North Carolina	Indiana	New Mexico	Illinois
8	North Carolina St.	Arkansas	Florida Atlantic	Michigan St.
9	Iowa	Boise St.	Clemson	Creighton
10	Ohio St.	Missouri	Wisconsin	Charleston
11	Memphis	Northwestern	Arizona St.	West Virginia	Maryland
12	Kent St.	VCU	Oral Roberts	Pittsburgh	Penn St.
13	Louisiana	Liberty	Seattle	Belmont
14	UC Santa Barbara	Siena	Princeton	Colgate
15	Samford	Northern Kentucky	UMass Lowell	Eastern Washington
16	UNC Asheville	UT-Martin	Southern	Nicholls St.	Md. Eastern Shore	St. Francis PA

Last 4 Byes: Wisconsin, Memphis, Northwestern, Arizona St.

Last 4 In: West Virginia, Maryland, Pittsburgh, Penn St.

First 4 Out: USC, Nevada, Utah St., Oklahoma St.

Next 4 Out: Kentucky, Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech

American Athletic Conference Preview

Just when a Group of 5 Conference is getting really good with maybe three teams strong enough to contend for a 2022-23 Playoff berth, said league is about to lose all three really good teams. Cincinnati broke through the insiders’ club last year, when the Bearcats ran the table in the regular season and became the first G5 school to receive a bid to the National Championship Playoffs. It was the second consecutive year that Cinti won every regular season game.

Alas, the Bearcats are headed to the Big 12 Conference. Going with them are the other two really good teams–Houston and Central Florida. A host of Conference USA teams will replace the really good teams, and this league will fall back in the Group of 5 pecking order.

This will be one interesting race this year. Houston and Cincinnati are not scheduled to play, but there is a decent chance they will face each other in game 13 in December.

American Athletic Conference Preseason PiRate Ratings

Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	111.2	110.3	112.8	111.4
Houston	105.0	104.7	106.5	105.4
UCF	103.8	104.5	104.6	104.3
SMU	102.2	101.3	102.3	101.9
East Carolina	99.5	99.1	100.4	99.7
Tulane	98.6	97.7	97.9	98.1
Memphis	97.0	97.5	96.9	97.1
Tulsa	95.8	94.8	95.7	95.4
USF	96.2	94.7	95.1	95.3
Navy	92.9	92.1	91.3	92.1
Temple	80.9	83.4	78.6	81.0
AAC	98.5	98.2	98.4	98.3

American Athletic Conference Official Media Poll

		Votes
#	Team	1st Place	Overall
1	Houston	7	243
2	Cincinnati	10	242
3	Central Florida	7	225
4	SMU	0	187
5	Memphis	0	162
6	East Carolina	0	157
7	Tulane	0	115
8	Tulsa	0	93
9	South Florida	0	71
10	Navy	0	61
11	Temple	0	28

The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.

AAC	Conf	Overall
Cincinnati	8-0	12-1
Houston	8-0	11-2
Central Florida	7-1	10-2
SMU	5-3	7-5
East Carolina	4-4	6-6
Memphis	3-5	6-6
Tulsa	3-5	6-6
Tulane	2-6	5-7
South Florida	2-6	3-9
Navy	2-6	3-9
Temple	0-8	2-10

Cincinnati picked to win AAC Championship Game.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, March 19, 2022

Saturday’s Games–NCAA, NIT, CBI, and The Basketball Classic

Saturday, March 19, 2022
Team	Team	Spread
Baylor	North Carolina	7.3
Kansas	Creighton	9.0
Tennessee	Michigan	5.4
Providence	Richmond	3.5
UCLA	Saint Mary’s	4.6
Murray St.	Saint Peter’s	9.0
Arkansas	New Mexico St.	7.9
Gonzaga	Memphis	12.0
Texas A&M	Oregon	3.9
Wake Forest	VCU	4.8
BYU	Northern Iowa	6.7
Drake	Purdue Ft. Wayne	9.5
Stephen F. Austin	UNC Asheville	5.7
Middle Tennessee	Cal Baptist	6.8
Ohio	Rice	5.9
UTEP	Western Illinois	6.6
Portland	New Orleans	8.2

Team	O-Eff	D-Eff	SOS	37+ 3pt	OReb%	-45% vs. 2pt	FT Rate 37	R + T New Rate	R+T Old Rate
Baylor	9	14	61.1	34.6	36.3	49.5	28.5	11.4	17.4
N. Carolina	27	64	58.0	36.2	30.4	48.3	29.6	10.0	15.7
Kansas	6	29	61.8	35.5	33.4	47.9	32.8	5.2	12.1
Creighton	124	18	58.6	30.7	28.6	43.5	26.0	-1.8	4.0
Tennessee	36	3	61.8	35.9	32.8	45.8	29.6	8.5	13.9
Michigan	19	91	61.6	34.0	31.2	50.8	28.9	7.8	12.5
Providence	31	79	57.5	34.3	30.5	46.6	38.5	2.1	7.4
Richmond	68	104	54.8	33.7	22.4	50.0	30.9	-3.4	1.5
UCLA	15	12	59.4	35.1	29.8	47.3	36.8	5.7	17.3
Saint Mary’s	63	9	57.3	35.0	27.8	46.0	23.9	7.3	13.2
Murray St.	35	40	48.4	35.3	36.0	48.3	31.3	15.2	24.0
Saint Peter’s	259	34	48.3	35.3	32.0	43.5	37.1	5.0	9.0
Arkansas	40	16	58.4	30.7	30.8	46.4	37.9	7.1	12.8
N. Mexico St.	87	73	50.7	32.6	33.7	45.6	34.8	8.1	14.5
Gonzaga	1	7	56.9	37.9	29.0	41.6	29.8	7.2	21.8
Memphis	50	31	57.3	35.9	37.5	45.3	38.4	6.7	11.7

Bracketnomics Predictions

Baylor vs. North Carolina

Baylor is just a tad stronger across the board and has a lot more NCAA Tournament experience on the bench and on the court.  Baylor should win but not by a large margin.

Kansas vs. Creighton

This has all the looks of a large margin victory for the Jayhawks   Creighton’s offense looks to be in trouble against Kansas’s defense, and spurtability heavily favors KU.

Tennessee vs. Michigan

This should be a close game with several lead changes.  Michigan’s interior defense may be a tad vulnerable to Tennessee’s inside muscle, but, the Wolverines’ offense is considerably better overall than Tennessee’s offense.  Schedule strength and R+T Ratings are basically a wash.  Solely on the interior defense, Tennessee gets the nod.

Providence vs. Richmond

Can Richmond make the Sweet 16 with an R+T Rating that shows the Spiders receive little or no Spurtability?  Providence is not a pushover, but the Friars are most likely not going to advance past the Sweet 16.  Providence has the advantage in every one of these stats.  Richmond beat Iowa by playing a much better half court game than the Big Ten Tournament champs.  Providence’s win over South Dakota St. was a little more hustle points over half court game, and it gets really difficult for a team to keep winning the half court game over and over, especially when the other team has the decided Spurtability advantage.  Look for the Friars to advance.

UCLA vs. Saint Mary’s

This game could stay close for quite a long time.  UCLA has the clear-cut edge in the essential stats, but the edge is not large enough to call the Bruins a prohibitive favorite.  The key here is the FT rate, where UCLA might be a little quicker and force SMC to commit more than their usual number of fouls.  UCLA needs to keep its starters on the floor more than the average tournament team, and the Gaels do not figure to force key players to go to the bench with foul trouble.  Give the edge to the Bruins but don’t expect a big blowout.

Murray St. vs. Saint Peter’s

In all but one respect, these teams are rather evenly matched.  Murray State has a huge R+T Rating advantage, 15 points to be exact in the old counting stat version and three times more in the rate stat version.  What this means is that the Racers are likely to enjoy one major spurt or multiple smaller spurts and pull away from the Peacocks at some point in the game.  Saint Peter’s won’t have the ability to play catch-up after a large spurt.  The Racers will be an interesting Sweet 16 team.

Arkansas vs. New Mexico St.

This game has special meaning with yours truly, ye old PiRate Captain.  Five years ago, when he was the head coach at Nevada, I called Eric Musselman the best Mid-Major head coach and a sure thing success wherever he ended up in a power conference.  When he was hired by Arkansas, I predicted he would return the Razorbacks to the prominence they enjoyed under Eddie Sutton and Nolan Richardson and have Arkansas competing for a shot at the Final Four within five years.  He is only in year three, and he almost made the Final Four last year.  

New Mexico State head coach Chris Jans is my current top Mid-Major coach in college basketball.  It is my belief that when he gets a power five coaching job, he too will produce the results Muss is producing in Fayetteville.

Now, about this game: Arkansas has a bit too much defensive abilities for the Aggies to consistently score in this game.  The difference in schedule strength and the slight evidence that the Razorbacks have a little more quickness is enough to call this one in Arkansas’s favor.  Don’t discount NMSU; Jans can coach undermanned talent and keep games close.  The Aggies can keep this game close and even have a chance to pull the upset, but the Razorbacks have about a 65% chance of winning this game.  Arky goes to the Sweet 16 again.

Gonzaga vs. Memphis

Don’t automatically dismiss Memphis in this game.  While Gonzaga has a decisive Bracketnomics advantage, Memphis has two superior aspects that can be used to exploit the 1-seed, and both work together to strengthen the advantages.  

Memphis has an exceptional offensive rebounding advantage in this game.  The Tigers are one of a small handful that have an O Reb% in excess of the magical 37%.  Memphis also exceeds the 37% margin in FT rate, which shows the Tigers have explosive quickness to the rim.  If Gonzaga gets into foul trouble in this game, all their other advantages will be neutralized.

Gonzaga is still the pick here, but this game should be a lot closer than expected, and Memphis will have a chance to pull off the big upset if Gonzaga fouls too much.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, March 6, 2022

Sunday’s Conference Tournaments
America East Conference–Quarterfinals
Higher Seed at Home
Home Team	Lower Seed	Spread
Vermont	NJIT	21.5
Maryland Baltimore Co.	UMass Lowell	2.5
New Hampshire	Binghamton	6.6
Hartford	Albany	3.7
Big South Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Charlotte
Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Longwood	Winthrop	-1.2
Colonial Athletic Association–Quarterfinals
Charlotte
Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Towson	Northeastern	11.9
Drexel	Delaware	0.9
UNC Wilmington	Elon	3.4
Hofstra	Charleston	2.6
Missouri Valley Conference CHAMPIONSHIP
St. Louis (Arch Madness)
Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Drake	Loyola (Chi.)	4.2
Patriot League–Semifinals
Higher Seed at Home
Home	Visitor	Spread
Colgate	Lehigh	11.7
Navy
Southern Conference–Semifinals
Asheville, NC
Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Chattanooga	Wofford	2.4
Furman	Samford	8.5
Summit League–Quarterfinals Continue
Sioux Falls, SD
Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Kansas City	South Dakota	0.1
Oral Roberts	Western Illinois	6.0
Sun Belt Conference–Semifinals
Pensacola, FL
Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Troy	Louisiana	-0.3
Appalachian St.	Georgia St.	-0.4

Sunday’s Regularly Scheduled Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
Memphis	Houston	-3.7
Rutgers	Penn St.	4.2
Ohio St.	Michigan	3.7
Wisconsin	Nebraska	13.1
Tulsa	Central Florida	-2.5
Temple	South Florida	9.1
SMU	Tulane	7.4
Michigan St.	Maryland	5.9
Illinois	Iowa	2.0
Northwestern	Minnesota	5.8

Dance Tickets Punched

1

Murray St.

Ohio Valley

30-2

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	2/28/2022
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Arizona	Gonzaga	Baylor	Kansas
2	Auburn	Duke	Kentucky	Purdue
3	Texas Tech	Villanova	Wisconsin	Tennessee
4	Providence	Illinois	Connecticut	UCLA
5	Texas	Arkansas	Ohio St.	Alabama
6	Houston	Saint Mary’s	USC	Michigan St.
7	LSU	Marquette	Iowa	Iowa St.
8	Colorado St.	Boise St.	Seton Hall	Murray St.
9	Wyoming	TCU	Notre Dame	Xavier
10	Creighton	San Francisco	Wake Forest	Davidson
11	North Texas	North Carolina	San Diego St.	Miami (Fla.)
12	Iona	South Dakota St.	Indiana	Memphis	Michigan	SMU
13	Chattanooga	New Mexico St.	Toledo	Vermont
14	Towson	Texas St.	Princeton	Northern Iowa
15	Jacksonville St.	Montana St.	Long Beach St.	Longwood
16	Colgate	Purdue Ft. Wayne	Bryant	Nicholls St.	Norfolk St.	Texas Southern

Best of the Rest

69	Loyola (Chi.)
70	BYU
71	Rutgers
72	Florida
73	VCU
74	Virginia Tech
75	Oregon
76	St. Bonaventure
77	Dayton
78	Oklahoma
79	Mississippi St.
80	Belmont