The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 18, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, March 19, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:07 pm

Saturday’s Games–NCAA, NIT, CBI, and The Basketball Classic

Saturday, March 19, 2022
TeamTeamSpread
BaylorNorth Carolina7.3
KansasCreighton9.0
TennesseeMichigan5.4
ProvidenceRichmond3.5
UCLASaint Mary’s4.6
Murray St.Saint Peter’s9.0
ArkansasNew Mexico St.7.9
GonzagaMemphis12.0
Texas A&MOregon3.9
Wake ForestVCU4.8
BYUNorthern Iowa6.7
DrakePurdue Ft. Wayne9.5
Stephen F. AustinUNC Asheville5.7
Middle TennesseeCal Baptist6.8
OhioRice5.9
UTEPWestern Illinois6.6
PortlandNew Orleans8.2

TeamO-EffD-EffSOS37+ 3ptOReb%-45% vs. 2ptFT Rate 37R + T New RateR+T Old Rate
Baylor91461.134.636.349.528.511.417.4
N. Carolina276458.036.230.448.329.610.015.7
Kansas62961.835.533.447.932.85.212.1
Creighton1241858.630.728.643.526.0-1.84.0
Tennessee36361.835.932.845.829.68.513.9
Michigan199161.634.031.250.828.97.812.5
Providence317957.534.330.546.638.52.17.4
Richmond6810454.833.722.450.030.9-3.41.5
UCLA151259.435.129.847.336.85.717.3
Saint Mary’s63957.335.027.846.023.97.313.2
Murray St.354048.435.336.048.331.315.224.0
Saint Peter’s2593448.335.332.043.537.15.09.0
Arkansas401658.430.730.846.437.97.112.8
N. Mexico St.877350.732.633.745.634.88.114.5
Gonzaga1756.937.929.041.629.87.221.8
Memphis503157.335.937.545.338.46.711.7

Bracketnomics Predictions

Baylor vs. North Carolina

Baylor is just a tad stronger across the board and has a lot more NCAA Tournament experience on the bench and on the court.  Baylor should win but not by a large margin.

Kansas vs. Creighton

This has all the looks of a large margin victory for the Jayhawks   Creighton’s offense looks to be in trouble against Kansas’s defense, and spurtability heavily favors KU.

Tennessee vs. Michigan

This should be a close game with several lead changes.  Michigan’s interior defense may be a tad vulnerable to Tennessee’s inside muscle, but, the Wolverines’ offense is considerably better overall than Tennessee’s offense.  Schedule strength and R+T Ratings are basically a wash.  Solely on the interior defense, Tennessee gets the nod.

Providence vs. Richmond

Can Richmond make the Sweet 16 with an R+T Rating that shows the Spiders receive little or no Spurtability?  Providence is not a pushover, but the Friars are most likely not going to advance past the Sweet 16.  Providence has the advantage in every one of these stats.  Richmond beat Iowa by playing a much better half court game than the Big Ten Tournament champs.  Providence’s win over South Dakota St. was a little more hustle points over half court game, and it gets really difficult for a team to keep winning the half court game over and over, especially when the other team has the decided Spurtability advantage.  Look for the Friars to advance.

UCLA vs. Saint Mary’s

This game could stay close for quite a long time.  UCLA has the clear-cut edge in the essential stats, but the edge is not large enough to call the Bruins a prohibitive favorite.  The key here is the FT rate, where UCLA might be a little quicker and force SMC to commit more than their usual number of fouls.  UCLA needs to keep its starters on the floor more than the average tournament team, and the Gaels do not figure to force key players to go to the bench with foul trouble.  Give the edge to the Bruins but don’t expect a big blowout.

Murray St. vs. Saint Peter’s

In all but one respect, these teams are rather evenly matched.  Murray State has a huge R+T Rating advantage, 15 points to be exact in the old counting stat version and three times more in the rate stat version.  What this means is that the Racers are likely to enjoy one major spurt or multiple smaller spurts and pull away from the Peacocks at some point in the game.  Saint Peter’s won’t have the ability to play catch-up after a large spurt.  The Racers will be an interesting Sweet 16 team.

Arkansas vs. New Mexico St.

This game has special meaning with yours truly, ye old PiRate Captain.  Five years ago, when he was the head coach at Nevada, I called Eric Musselman the best Mid-Major head coach and a sure thing success wherever he ended up in a power conference.  When he was hired by Arkansas, I predicted he would return the Razorbacks to the prominence they enjoyed under Eddie Sutton and Nolan Richardson and have Arkansas competing for a shot at the Final Four within five years.  He is only in year three, and he almost made the Final Four last year.  

New Mexico State head coach Chris Jans is my current top Mid-Major coach in college basketball.  It is my belief that when he gets a power five coaching job, he too will produce the results Muss is producing in Fayetteville.

Now, about this game: Arkansas has a bit too much defensive abilities for the Aggies to consistently score in this game.  The difference in schedule strength and the slight evidence that the Razorbacks have a little more quickness is enough to call this one in Arkansas’s favor.  Don’t discount NMSU; Jans can coach undermanned talent and keep games close.  The Aggies can keep this game close and even have a chance to pull the upset, but the Razorbacks have about a 65% chance of winning this game.  Arky goes to the Sweet 16 again.

Gonzaga vs. Memphis

Don’t automatically dismiss Memphis in this game.  While Gonzaga has a decisive Bracketnomics advantage, Memphis has two superior aspects that can be used to exploit the 1-seed, and both work together to strengthen the advantages.  

Memphis has an exceptional offensive rebounding advantage in this game.  The Tigers are one of a small handful that have an O Reb% in excess of the magical 37%.  Memphis also exceeds the 37% margin in FT rate, which shows the Tigers have explosive quickness to the rim.  If Gonzaga gets into foul trouble in this game, all their other advantages will be neutralized.

Gonzaga is still the pick here, but this game should be a lot closer than expected, and Memphis will have a chance to pull off the big upset if Gonzaga fouls too much.

March 6, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, March 6, 2022

Sunday’s Conference Tournaments
America East Conference–Quarterfinals
Higher Seed at Home
Home TeamLower SeedSpread
VermontNJIT21.5
Maryland Baltimore Co.UMass Lowell2.5
New HampshireBinghamton6.6
HartfordAlbany3.7
Big South Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Charlotte
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
LongwoodWinthrop-1.2
Colonial Athletic Association–Quarterfinals
Charlotte
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
TowsonNortheastern11.9
DrexelDelaware0.9
UNC WilmingtonElon3.4
HofstraCharleston2.6
Missouri Valley Conference CHAMPIONSHIP
St. Louis (Arch Madness)
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
DrakeLoyola (Chi.)4.2
Patriot League–Semifinals
Higher Seed at Home
HomeVisitorSpread
ColgateLehigh11.7
Navy
Southern Conference–Semifinals
Asheville, NC
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
ChattanoogaWofford2.4
FurmanSamford8.5
Summit League–Quarterfinals Continue
Sioux Falls, SD
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Kansas CitySouth Dakota0.1
Oral RobertsWestern Illinois6.0
Sun Belt Conference–Semifinals
Pensacola, FL
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
TroyLouisiana-0.3
Appalachian St.Georgia St.-0.4

Sunday’s Regularly Scheduled Games
Home TeamVisitorSpread
MemphisHouston-3.7
RutgersPenn St.4.2
Ohio St.Michigan3.7
WisconsinNebraska13.1
TulsaCentral Florida-2.5
TempleSouth Florida9.1
SMUTulane7.4
Michigan St.Maryland5.9
IllinoisIowa2.0
NorthwesternMinnesota5.8

Dance Tickets Punched

1Murray St.Ohio Valley30-2

February 28, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:10 pm
Date2/28/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1ArizonaGonzagaBaylorKansas
2AuburnDukeKentuckyPurdue
3Texas TechVillanovaWisconsinTennessee
4ProvidenceIllinoisConnecticutUCLA
5TexasArkansasOhio St.Alabama
6HoustonSaint Mary’sUSCMichigan St.
7LSUMarquetteIowaIowa St.
8Colorado St.Boise St.Seton HallMurray St.
9WyomingTCUNotre DameXavier
10CreightonSan FranciscoWake ForestDavidson
11North TexasNorth CarolinaSan Diego St.Miami (Fla.)
12IonaSouth Dakota St.IndianaMemphisMichiganSMU
13ChattanoogaNew Mexico St.ToledoVermont
14TowsonTexas St.PrincetonNorthern Iowa
15Jacksonville St.Montana St.Long Beach St.Longwood
16ColgatePurdue Ft. WayneBryantNicholls St.Norfolk St.Texas Southern

Best of the Rest

69Loyola (Chi.)
70BYU
71Rutgers
72Florida
73VCU
74Virginia Tech
75Oregon
76St. Bonaventure
77Dayton
78Oklahoma
79Mississippi St.
80Belmont

February 27, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 27, 2022

HomeVisitorsSpread
GeorgetownConnecticut-14.7
HarvardPrinceton-5.1
HoustonSMU12.8
QuinnipiacCanisius1.1
MichiganIllinois-0.1
ManhattanFairfield-0.2
Saint Peter’sNiagara4.9
SienaMonmouth-5.5
RiderIona-12.1
MemphisWichita St.8.1
George MasonGeorge Washington11.5
TempleTulane1.0
MarylandOhio St.2.5
UNC GreensboroEast Tennessee St.3.4
DePaulSt. John’s-1.6
MontanaMontana St.-2.8
MinnesotaIndiana-3.3
Penn St.Nebraska12.6

February 25, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:28 pm
Date2/25/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaArizonaKansasAuburn
2KentuckyBaylorPurdueDuke
3Texas TechVillanovaTennesseeWisconsin
4IllinoisUCLAProvidenceTexas
5Ohio St.ConnecticutAlabamaHouston
6ArkansasLSUUSCMarquette
7IowaMichigan St.Iowa St.Saint Mary’s
8Colorado St.Boise St.XavierMurray St.
9Seton HallWyomingCreightonTCU
10Miami (Fla.)MichiganSan FranciscoWake Forest
11Notre DameDavidsonLoyola (Chi.)North Carolina
12North TexasIonaSan Diego St.MemphisRutgersIndiana
13ChattanoogaSouth Dakota St.New Mexico St.Vermont
14ToledoWagnerTowsonMontana St.
15PrincetonTexas St.Long Beach St.Jacksonville St.
16Cleveland St.LongwoodColgateNicholls St.Norfolk St.Texas Southern

Best of the Rest

69SMU
70BYU
71VCU
72Oregon
73Dayton
74Florida
75Virginia
76St. Bonaventure
77UAB
78Virginia Tech
79Belmont
80Mississippi St.

February 21, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:40 pm
Date2/21/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaArizonaKansasAuburn
2KentuckyBaylorPurdueDuke
3Texas TechIllinoisVillanovaTennessee
4WisconsinUCLAProvidenceTexas
5AlabamaHoustonOhio St.Connecticut
6LSUArkansasMichigan St.USC
7MarquetteSaint Mary’sXavierColorado St.
8Boise St.Iowa St.Seton HallMurray St.
9WyomingIowaSan FranciscoTCU
10Wake ForestDavidsonSan Diego St.Creighton
11Notre DameMiami (Fla.)IndianaMemphisMichigan
12North TexasIonaChattanoogaLoyola (Chi.)North Carolina
13South Dakota St.New Mexico St.Northern IowaVermont
14ToledoWagnerTowsonMontana St.
15Jacksonville St.PrincetonTexas St.UC-Irvine
16Cleveland St.ColgateLongwoodNew OrleansNorfolk St.Texas Southern

Best of the Rest

69BYU
70SMU
71Florida
72Rutgers
73VCU
74Belmont
75Oklahoma
76Oregon

February 20, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 20, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
ButlerProvidence-3.7
Wichita St.Houston-8.3
WisconsinMichigan1.8
MaineNJIT-3.0
DetroitWright St.0.6
IonaFairfield11.2
CincinnatiTemple7.4
Central FloridaEast Carolina10.1
MilwaukeePurdue Fort Wayne-2.8
Northern IowaMissouri St.-1.4
MaristQuinnipiac6.6
SienaSaint Peter’s-2.4
ManhattanRider3.0
FordhamGeorge Mason-3.2
SMUMemphis-0.1
CreightonMarquette0.2
OaklandNorthern Kentucky6.9
Green BayCleveland St.-8.4
San Jose St.New Mexico-6.0
HartfordStony Brook0.5
Loyola (MD)Lehigh5.0
PurdueRutgers12.6
BellarmineJacksonville St.0.8
USCWashington St.5.0
MissouriMississippi St.-5.9

February 15, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, February 15, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
LongwoodHigh Point8.2
Western MichiganAkron-10.8
ToledoKent St.10.1
Penn St.Michigan St.-2.7
DukeWake Forest10.2
OklahomaTexas-0.4
Sacred HeartMerrimack0.7
CincinnatiMemphis-2.0
Saint Peter’sIona-3.9
ElonHofstra-6.6
South FloridaTulane-5.3
Florida St.Clemson2.2
North FloridaLiberty-7.3
FordhamVCU-6.4
Ball St.Northern Illinois7.5
Central MichiganEastern Michigan-0.7
OhioMiami (O)12.0
Bowling GreenBuffalo-5.3
MississippiSouth Carolina3.1
Texas A&MFlorida0.1
ProvidenceVillanova-4.3
Georgia TechNC St.1.5
Illinois St.Northern Iowa-3.8
Southern IllinoisBradley-1.6
Missouri St.Indiana St.13.9
Ohio St.Minnesota11.4
TennesseeKentucky-0.5
IndianaWisconsin3.1
New MexicoWyoming-6.4
MissouriArkansas-8.2
Oregon St.Colorado-4.7
DePaulButler5.7
TCUIowa St.2.8
UC San DiegoUC Irvine-6.6
San Diego St.Utah St.3.3
NevadaSan Jose St.14.0

January 27, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, January 27, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
NebraskaWisconsin-8.3
Florida Gulf CoastEastern Kentucky2.8
Appalachian St.Arkansas St.3.7
Tennessee TechMurray St.-12.7
MarshallMiddle Tennessee-0.6
WagnerSt. Francis (PA)14.8
Sacred HeartSt. Francis (NY)4.1
Fairleigh DickinsonMount St. Mary’s-5.2
Central ConnecticutLong Island-6.4
BryantMerrimack9.3
UNC AshevilleGardner-Webb1.4
LibertyNorth Alabama13.5
JacksonvilleLipscomb5.9
DetroitIllinois Chicago6.6
Robert MorrisMilwaukee0.2
Youngstown St.Green Bay7.9
Coastal CarolinaLittle Rock11.4
James MadisonDrexel1.8
CharlestonHofstra-2.4
UNC WilmingtonNortheastern1.9
TowsonDelaware6.7
ElonWilliam & Mary8.8
Louisiana TechRice9.3
StetsonBellarmine-2.8
Kennesaw St.Jacksonville St.-2.6
UL MonroeGeorgia Southern1.0
MinnesotaOhio St.-3.9
Northern IllinoisBall St.-0.9
Southern IllinoisLoyola (Chi.)-7.3
UTSAFlorida International-4.1
Southern Miss.North Texas-14.1
Northern ColoradoWeber St.-0.5
Houston BaptistNew Orleans-4.9
Chicago St.Utah Valley-15.2
North FloridaCentral Arkansas6.8
UT ArlingtonTexas St.-1.4
South AlabamaTroy5.7
LouisianaGeorgia St.3.6
OmahaOral Roberts-14.6
South DakotaNorth Dakota St.0.5
South Dakota St.North Dakota23.4
SIU EdwardsvilleTennessee St.4.6
Austin PeayBelmont-13.2
Northwestern St.Incarnate Word5.0
McNeese St.Nicholls St.-3.2
IowaPurdue-1.8
UCLACalifornia15.9
MemphisEast Carolina13.7
UC DavisCal St. Fullerton0.8
Southeast Missouri St.Morehead St.-7.2
UT MartinEastern Illinois11.1
Western KentuckyUAB-5.4
UTEPFlorida Atlantic0.6
MontanaIdaho14.0
Montana St.Eastern Washington6.2
SE LouisianaTexas A&M-CC1.2
DenverUMKC-1.3
UC IrvineCal St. Bakersfield10.0
UC San DiegoCal Poly5.8
UC RiversideLong Beach St.6.9
Portland St.Southern Utah-4.5
Sacramento St.Idaho St.6.5
PortlandPacific4.1
San FranciscoSaint Mary’s2.2
San DiegoPepperdine8.8
GonzagaLoyola Marymount26.3
USCStanford10.5
WashingtonColorado-2.4
Santa ClaraBYU-3.0
HawaiiCal St. Northridge13.1

January 23, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, January 23, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
ProvidenceButler10.5
PurdueNorthwestern13.2
BryantSt. Francis (NY)10.3
NiagaraRider8.9
CanisiusSaint Peter’s-2.4
MarquetteXavier-0.9
Mount St. Mary’sCentral Connecticut8.4
Purdue Fort WayneYoungstown St.1.9
EvansvilleIllinois St.-2.2
MaristFairfield3.7
MonmouthManhattan11.1
QuinnipiacIona-8.9
Saint LouisMassachusetts9.0
CaliforniaArizona-14.9
TulsaMemphis-5.7
MerrimackWagner-8.4
Cleveland St.Robert Morris10.9
IndianaMichigan3.7
UTSAUTEP-6.8
St. Francis (PA)Sacred Heart1.9
Fairleigh DickinsonLong Island-6.7
OregonWashington10.8
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