PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 10, 2020

Date	2/10/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Baylor	Gonzaga	Kansas	San Diego St.
2	Duke	Dayton	Louisville	Maryland
3	Seton Hall	Florida St.	West Virginia	Auburn
4	Villanova	Butler	Oregon	Penn St.
5	Kentucky	Michigan St.	Iowa	Creighton
6	LSU	Colorado	Marquette	Illinois
7	Arizona	Rutgers	Wisconsin	Michigan
8	Houston	Texas Tech	BYU	Ohio St.
9	USC	Purdue	Wichita St.	Arkansas
10	Saint Mary’s	Rhode Island	Oklahoma	Florida
11	Xavier	Indiana	Northern Iowa	Stanford	Virginia
12	E. Tennessee St.	Yale	S. F. Austin	Mississippi St.	VCU
13	Liberty	Vermont	New Mexico St.	North Texas
14	Bowling Green	Wright St.	Colgate	Hofstra
15	Winthrop	Little Rock	Murray St.	UC-Irvine
16	South Dakota St.	Montana	Prairie View	Rider	Robert Morris	N. Carolina A&T
The Bubble Contenders
69	Arizona St.
70	Cincinnati
71	Memphis
72	Utah St.
73	Minnesota
74	N. Carolina St.
75	Richmond
76	Syracuse
77	Notre Dame
78	Furman

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 16, 2020

Power Conference & Top 25 Teams Playing Thursday

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Memphis	Cincinnati	4.7
Arizona	Utah	14.3
Arizona St.	Colorado	-1.7
BYU	San Diego	18.1
USC	California	11.0
Gonzaga	Santa Clara	18.4
Washington	Oregon St.	4.1

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: December 1, 2019

This Week’s Conference Championships Spreads

All times given are Eastern Standard

Friday, December 6

Conference	Pac-12
North Division	Oregon 10-2
South Division	Utah 11-1
Site:	Santa Clara
Time:	8:00 PM
TV:	ABC
PiRate:	Utah by 7.1
Mean:	Utah by 6.3
Bias:	Utah by 6.8
Predicted Score:	Utah 27
	Oregon 20

 

 

Saturday, December 7

 

Conference	Sun Belt
East Division	Appalachian St. 11-1
West Division	Louisiana 10-2
Site:	Boone, NC (Appy St.)
Time:	12 Noon
TV:	ESPN
PiRate:	Appy St. by 9.2
Mean:	Appy St. by 8.4
Bias:	Appy St. by 9.1
Predicted Score:	Appalachian St. 35
	Louisiana 26

 

 

Conference	Mid-American
East Division	Miami (O) 7-5
West Division	Central Michigan 8-4
Site:	Detroit
Time:	12 Noon
TV:	ESPN 2
PiRate:	CMU by 2.0
Mean:	CMU by 3.9
Bias:	CMU by 3.1
Predicted Score:	Central Mich. 31
	Miami (O) 28

 

 

Conference	Big 12
1st Place	Oklahoma 11-1
2nd Place	Baylor 11-1
Site:	Arlington, TX
Time:	12 Noon
TV:	ABC
PiRate:	Oklahoma by 5.2
Mean:	Oklahoma by 4.6
Bias:	Oklahoma by 5.4
Predicted Score:	Oklahoma 38
	Baylor 33

 

 

Conference	Conference USA
East Division	Florida Atlantic 9-3
West Division	UAB 9-3
Site:	Boca Raton, FL (FAU)
Time:	1:30 PM
TV:	CBSSN
PiRate:	FAU by 11.9
Mean:	FAU by 10.0
Bias:	FAU by 12.2
Predicted Score:	Florida Atlantic 28
	UAB 17

 

 

Conference	American Athletic
East Division	Cincinnati 10-2
West Division	Memphis 11-1
Site:	Memphis
Time:	3:30 PM
TV:	ABC
PiRate:	Memphis by 6.9
Mean:	Memphis by 7.8
Bias:	Memphis by 8.1
Predicted Score:	Memphis 35
	Cincinnati 27

 

 

Conference	Mountain West
Mountain Division	Boise St. 11-1
West Division	Hawaii 9-4
Site:	Boise, ID
Time:	4:00 PM
TV:	ESPN
PiRate:	Boise St. by 16.9
Mean:	Boise St. by 15.7
Bias:	Boise St. by 18.0
Predicted Score:	Boise St. 48
	Hawaii 31

 

 

Conference	Southeastern
East Division	Georgia 11-1
West Division	LSU 12-0
Site:	Atlanta
Time:	4:00 PM
TV:	CBS
PiRate:	LSU by 5.6
Mean:	LSU by 5.3
Bias:	LSU by 5.5
Predicted Score:	LSU 35
	Georgia 30

 

 

Conference	Atlantic Coast
Atlantic Division	Clemson 12-0
Coastal Division	Virginia 9-3
Site:	Charlotte
Time:	7:30 PM
TV:	ABC
PiRate:	Clemson by 30.2
Mean:	Clemson by 28.3
Bias:	Clemson by 30.9
Predicted Score:	Clemson 40
	Virginia 10

 

 

Conference	Big Ten
East Division	Ohio St. 12-0
West Division	Wisconsin 10-2
Site:	Indianapolis
Time:	8:00 PM
TV:	Fox
PiRate:	Ohio St. by 19.4
Mean:	Ohio St. by 18.8
Bias:	Ohio St. by 20.5
Predicted Score:	Ohio St. 44
	Wisconsin 24

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	141.9	141.1	143.0	142.0
2	Clemson	138.8	137.0	140.0	138.6
3	L S U	135.5	133.5	135.7	134.9
4	Georgia	128.4	126.7	128.7	127.9
5	Alabama	128.8	125.7	129.1	127.9
6	Utah	126.8	125.9	127.5	126.7
7	Michigan	125.6	124.3	125.9	125.3
8	Florida	125.9	123.5	125.8	125.0
9	Oklahoma	122.9	122.4	122.5	122.6
10	Wisconsin	122.5	122.3	122.6	122.5
11	Auburn	122.9	121.1	122.7	122.2
12	Penn St.	121.4	120.5	121.4	121.1
13	Notre Dame	120.8	119.9	121.0	120.6
14	Oregon	119.5	119.4	120.2	119.7
15	Iowa	118.4	116.9	118.0	117.8
16	Baylor	117.7	117.8	117.1	117.5
17	Minnesota	117.2	116.8	116.5	116.8
18	Texas A&M	115.1	112.5	113.3	113.7
19	Washington	113.1	112.8	114.0	113.3
20	Iowa St.	112.9	113.2	112.7	112.9
21	Kansas St.	112.4	112.3	112.3	112.3
22	Kentucky	112.4	111.3	111.6	111.8
23	Central Florida	111.6	111.1	112.1	111.6
24	U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5
25	Texas	111.1	111.4	111.0	111.2
26	Memphis	110.2	110.6	111.4	110.7
27	Virginia Tech	110.5	110.5	111.2	110.7
28	Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4
29	Oklahoma St.	110.3	110.8	109.7	110.3
30	Mississippi St.	109.8	106.6	113.3	109.9
31	Washington St.	110.0	109.2	110.0	109.7
32	Indiana	109.9	108.9	109.5	109.4
33	Appalachian St.	109.6	109.1	109.0	109.2
34	Virginia	108.6	108.7	109.1	108.8
35	Missouri	109.9	107.5	108.5	108.6
36	T C U	107.7	109.7	107.9	108.4
37	Boise St.	107.9	108.2	108.0	108.0
38	South Carolina	109.0	107.1	108.0	108.0
39	North Carolina	107.7	107.6	108.4	107.9
40	Arizona St.	107.9	107.3	108.1	107.8
41	Ole Miss	107.8	106.9	108.1	107.6
42	Michigan St.	107.7	106.8	106.7	107.1
43	Nebraska	106.3	106.5	105.6	106.1
44	Cincinnati	105.8	105.3	105.8	105.6
45	Air Force	104.6	106.4	105.6	105.5
46	SMU	104.8	104.7	105.4	105.0
47	Florida St.	104.8	104.6	104.9	104.8
48	Miami (Fla.)	104.5	104.0	105.1	104.5
49	Texas Tech	104.6	104.9	103.7	104.4
50	Purdue	104.1	103.9	103.7	103.9
51	California	103.7	103.5	104.2	103.8
52	Wake Forest	103.1	102.4	103.3	102.9
53	Louisiana	102.9	103.2	102.4	102.8
54	Northwestern	103.4	102.6	102.1	102.7
55	West Virginia	102.7	102.7	102.3	102.5
56	Illinois	102.2	102.8	101.8	102.3
57	Pittsburgh	102.4	101.8	102.3	102.2
58	BYU	102.1	102.3	101.6	102.0
59	Boston College	101.9	101.4	102.0	101.8
60	Oregon St.	101.2	102.1	101.5	101.6
61	Navy	100.3	102.6	101.6	101.5
62	Stanford	101.6	100.6	100.8	101.0
63	Louisville	100.2	99.8	99.9	100.0
64	Tulane	99.6	100.2	100.0	99.9
65	Temple	99.4	99.3	100.5	99.7
66	Wyoming	98.6	100.3	98.9	99.3
67	Syracuse	99.7	98.9	98.9	99.2
68	Duke	99.4	98.6	99.1	99.0
69	Georgia Southern	99.0	99.1	98.7	99.0
70	Florida Atlantic	98.5	98.5	99.6	98.9
71	Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6
72	U C L A	98.7	98.3	98.2	98.4
73	Ohio	98.4	97.6	98.9	98.3
74	San Diego St.	97.6	99.2	97.6	98.1
75	Hawaii	97.0	98.4	96.4	97.3
76	Western Michigan	97.6	96.6	97.1	97.1
77	Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.8	96.9
78	Utah St.	96.8	96.5	97.1	96.8
79	Western Kentucky	95.3	95.9	96.5	95.9
80	Houston	94.8	95.7	96.4	95.6
81	Buffalo	94.8	95.4	96.2	95.4
82	Tulsa	94.1	95.1	95.4	94.9
83	Kansas	93.7	94.7	93.8	94.1
84	Army	94.1	94.3	93.4	94.0
85	Louisiana Tech	93.9	94.1	93.7	93.9
86	Southern Miss.	93.7	92.6	93.9	93.4
87	Central Michigan	92.3	93.1	93.5	92.9
88	Maryland	93.5	92.6	92.0	92.7
89	Fresno St.	92.4	93.4	92.2	92.7
90	Marshall	92.0	91.7	92.5	92.1
91	North Carolina St.	92.3	91.4	91.6	91.8
92	Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4
93	Ball St.	91.0	90.7	91.2	91.0
94	Nevada	89.8	91.3	89.1	90.1
95	Arkansas St.	90.0	90.4	89.7	90.0
96	Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.8	90.0
97	U A B	89.1	91.0	89.9	90.0
98	Miami (Ohio)	90.3	89.2	90.4	90.0
99	Georgia Tech	90.2	88.9	90.2	89.8
100	Kent St.	89.0	89.1	89.8	89.3
101	Colorado St.	88.0	91.2	88.7	89.3
102	Georgia St.	89.3	90.1	88.4	89.3
103	Troy	89.6	89.8	88.1	89.2
104	Florida Int’l.	89.1	89.0	89.3	89.1
105	South Florida	88.8	89.3	88.9	89.0
106	Middle Tennessee	88.9	88.5	89.2	88.9
107	San Jose St.	87.9	89.7	88.1	88.6
108	Charlotte	87.9	88.3	88.6	88.3
109	Eastern Michigan	87.8	88.0	88.2	88.0
110	Arkansas	88.0	87.8	87.3	87.7
111	Northern Illinois	87.5	86.9	87.8	87.4
112	Coastal Carolina	86.9	87.8	86.3	87.0
113	Louisiana-Monroe	86.7	87.4	86.4	86.9
114	North Texas	86.3	86.0	86.2	86.2
115	Rutgers	85.1	84.6	83.6	84.4
116	U N L V	83.7	85.4	83.5	84.2
117	Toledo	84.0	83.9	84.1	84.0
118	Rice	82.4	83.7	82.4	82.8
119	East Carolina	82.4	83.6	82.3	82.8
120	New Mexico	79.7	81.7	78.6	80.0
121	Texas St.	79.2	79.9	78.9	79.3
122	South Alabama	77.0	79.5	77.0	77.8
123	Texas-San Antonio	76.1	77.9	76.5	76.8
124	New Mexico St.	75.6	77.3	75.2	76.0
125	Old Dominion	73.5	73.5	73.2	73.4
126	Connecticut	71.3	73.9	70.8	72.0
127	U T E P	68.5	71.8	68.6	69.6
128	Bowling Green	68.1	67.5	67.8	67.8
129	Akron	62.8	62.5	61.7	62.3
130	Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.6	111.1	112.1	111.6	6-2	9-3
Cincinnati	105.8	105.3	105.8	105.6	7-1	10-2
Temple	99.4	99.3	100.5	99.7	5-3	8-4
South Florida	88.8	89.3	88.9	89.0	2-6	4-8
East Carolina	82.4	83.6	82.3	82.8	1-7	4-8
Connecticut	71.3	73.9	70.8	72.0	0-8	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	110.2	110.6	111.4	110.7	7-1	11-1
SMU	104.8	104.7	105.4	105.0	6-2	10-2
Navy	100.3	102.6	101.6	101.5	7-1	9-2
Tulane	99.6	100.2	100.0	99.9	3-5	6-6
Houston	94.8	95.7	96.4	95.6	2-6	4-8
Tulsa	94.1	95.1	95.4	94.9	2-6	4-8
AAC Averages	96.9	97.6	97.6	97.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	138.8	137.0	140.0	138.6	8-0	12-0
Florida St.	104.8	104.6	104.9	104.8	4-4	6-6
Wake Forest	103.1	102.4	103.3	102.9	4-4	8-4
Boston College	101.9	101.4	102.0	101.8	4-4	6-6
Louisville	100.2	99.8	99.9	100.0	5-3	7-5
Syracuse	99.7	98.9	98.9	99.2	2-6	5-7
North Carolina St.	92.3	91.4	91.6	91.8	1-7	4-8
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia Tech	110.5	110.5	111.2	110.7	5-3	8-4
Virginia	108.6	108.7	109.1	108.8	6-2	9-3
North Carolina	107.7	107.6	108.4	107.9	4-4	6-6
Miami (Fla.)	104.5	104.0	105.1	104.5	4-4	6-6
Pittsburgh	102.4	101.8	102.3	102.2	4-4	7-5
Duke	99.4	98.6	99.1	99.0	3-5	5-7
Georgia Tech	90.2	88.9	90.2	89.8	2-6	3-9
ACC Averages	104.6	104.0	104.7	104.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	122.9	122.4	122.5	122.6	8-1	11-1
Baylor	117.7	117.8	117.1	117.5	8-1	11-1
Iowa St.	112.9	113.2	112.7	112.9	5-4	7-5
Kansas St.	112.4	112.3	112.3	112.3	5-4	8-4
Texas	111.1	111.4	111.0	111.2	5-4	7-5
Oklahoma St.	110.3	110.8	109.7	110.3	5-4	8-4
T C U	107.7	109.7	107.9	108.4	3-6	5-7
Texas Tech	104.6	104.9	103.7	104.4	2-7	4-8
West Virginia	102.7	102.7	102.3	102.5	3-6	5-7
Kansas	93.7	94.7	93.8	94.1	1-8	3-9
Big 12 Averages	109.6	110.0	109.3	109.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	141.9	141.1	143.0	142.0	9-0	12-0
Michigan	125.6	124.3	125.9	125.3	6-3	9-3
Penn St.	121.4	120.5	121.4	121.1	7-2	10-2
Indiana	109.9	108.9	109.5	109.4	5-4	8-4
Michigan St.	107.7	106.8	106.7	107.1	4-5	6-6
Maryland	93.5	92.6	92.0	92.7	1-8	3-9
Rutgers	85.1	84.6	83.6	84.4	0-9	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	122.5	122.3	122.6	122.5	7-2	10-2
Iowa	118.4	116.9	118.0	117.8	6-3	9-3
Minnesota	117.2	116.8	116.5	116.8	7-2	10-2
Nebraska	106.3	106.5	105.6	106.1	3-6	5-7
Purdue	104.1	103.9	103.7	103.9	3-6	4-8
Northwestern	103.4	102.6	102.1	102.7	1-8	3-9
Illinois	102.2	102.8	101.8	102.3	4-5	6-6
Big Ten Averages	111.4	110.8	110.9	111.0
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	98.5	98.5	99.6	98.9	7-1	9-3
Western Kentucky	95.3	95.9	96.5	95.9	6-2	8-4
Marshall	92.0	91.7	92.5	92.1	6-2	8-4
Florida Int’l.	89.1	89.0	89.3	89.1	4-4	6-6
Middle Tennessee	88.9	88.5	89.2	88.9	3-5	4-8
Charlotte	87.9	88.3	88.6	88.3	5-3	7-5
Old Dominion	73.5	73.5	73.2	73.4	0-8	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Louisiana Tech	93.9	94.1	93.7	93.9	6-2	9-3
Southern Miss.	93.7	92.6	93.9	93.4	5-3	7-5
U A B	89.1	91.0	89.9	90.0	6-2	9-3
North Texas	86.3	86.0	86.2	86.2	3-5	4-8
Rice	82.4	83.7	82.4	82.8	3-5	3-9
Texas-San Antonio	76.1	77.9	76.5	76.8	3-5	4-8
U T E P	68.5	71.8	68.6	69.6	0-8	1-11
CUSA Averages	86.8	87.3	87.2	87.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	120.8	119.9	121.0	120.6	x	10-2
BYU	102.1	102.3	101.6	102.0	x	7-5
Army	94.1	94.3	93.4	94.0	x	5-7
Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.8	90.0	x	7-5
New Mexico St.	75.6	77.3	75.2	76.0	x	2-10
Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9	x	1-11
Indep. Averages	89.8	90.5	89.4	89.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	98.4	97.6	98.9	98.3	5-3	6-6
Buffalo	94.8	95.4	96.2	95.4	5-3	7-5
Miami (Ohio)	90.3	89.2	90.4	90.0	6-2	7-5
Kent St.	89.0	89.1	89.8	89.3	5-3	6-6
Bowling Green	68.1	67.5	67.8	67.8	2-6	3-9
Akron	62.8	62.5	61.7	62.3	0-8	0-12
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	97.6	96.6	97.1	97.1	5-3	7-5
Central Michigan	92.3	93.1	93.5	92.9	6-2	8-4
Ball St.	91.0	90.7	91.2	91.0	4-4	5-7
Eastern Michigan	87.8	88.0	88.2	88.0	3-5	6-6
Northern Illinois	87.5	86.9	87.8	87.4	4-4	5-7
Toledo	84.0	83.9	84.1	84.0	3-5	6-6
MAC Averages	87.0	86.7	87.2	87.0
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	107.9	108.2	108.0	108.0	8-0	11-1
Air Force	104.6	106.4	105.6	105.5	7-1	10-2
Wyoming	98.6	100.3	98.9	99.3	4-4	7-5
Utah St.	96.8	96.5	97.1	96.8	6-2	7-5
Colorado St.	88.0	91.2	88.7	89.3	3-5	4-8
New Mexico	79.7	81.7	78.6	80.0	0-8	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	97.6	99.2	97.6	98.1	5-3	9-3
Hawaii	97.0	98.4	96.4	97.3	5-3	9-4
Fresno St.	92.4	93.4	92.2	92.7	2-6	4-8
Nevada	89.8	91.3	89.1	90.1	4-4	7-5
San Jose St.	87.9	89.7	88.1	88.6	2-6	5-7
U N L V	83.7	85.4	83.5	84.2	2-6	4-8
MWC Averages	93.7	95.1	93.6	94.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	119.5	119.4	120.2	119.7	8-1	10-2
Washington	113.1	112.8	114.0	113.3	4-5	7-5
Washington St.	110.0	109.2	110.0	109.7	3-6	6-6
California	103.7	103.5	104.2	103.8	4-5	7-5
Oregon St.	101.2	102.1	101.5	101.6	4-5	5-7
Stanford	101.6	100.6	100.8	101.0	3-6	4-8
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	126.8	125.9	127.5	126.7	8-1	11-1
U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5	7-2	8-4
Arizona St.	107.9	107.3	108.1	107.8	4-5	7-5
Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6	3-6	5-7
U C L A	98.7	98.3	98.2	98.4	4-5	4-8
Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.8	96.9	2-7	4-8
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	107.2	107.7	107.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.4	126.7	128.7	127.9	7-1	11-1
Florida	125.9	123.5	125.8	125.0	6-2	10-2
Kentucky	112.4	111.3	111.6	111.8	3-5	7-5
Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4	5-3	7-5
Missouri	109.9	107.5	108.5	108.6	3-5	6-6
South Carolina	109.0	107.1	108.0	108.0	3-5	4-8
Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4	1-7	3-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
L S U	135.5	133.5	135.7	134.9	8-0	12-0
Alabama	128.8	125.7	129.1	127.9	6-2	10-2
Auburn	122.9	121.1	122.7	122.2	5-3	9-3
Texas A&M	115.1	112.5	113.3	113.7	4-4	7-5
Mississippi St.	109.8	106.6	113.3	109.9	3-5	6-6
Ole Miss	107.8	106.9	108.1	107.6	2-6	4-8
Arkansas	88.0	87.8	87.3	87.7	0-8	2-10
SEC Averages	114.1	112.2	113.8	113.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	109.6	109.1	109.0	109.2	7-1	11-1
Georgia Southern	99.0	99.1	98.7	99.0	5-3	7-5
Georgia St.	89.3	90.1	88.4	89.3	4-4	7-5
Troy	89.6	89.8	88.1	89.2	3-5	5-7
Coastal Carolina	86.9	87.8	86.3	87.0	2-6	5-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	102.9	103.2	102.4	102.8	7-1	10-2
Arkansas St.	90.0	90.4	89.7	90.0	5-3	7-5
Louisiana-Monroe	86.7	87.4	86.4	86.9	4-4	5-7
Texas St.	79.2	79.9	78.9	79.3	2-6	3-9
South Alabama	77.0	79.5	77.0	77.8	1-7	2-10
SBC Averages	91.0	91.6	90.5	91.1

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.4
2	Big Ten	111.0
3	Big 12	109.6
4	Pac-12	107.4
5	Atlantic Coast	104.4
6	American	97.4
7	Mountain West	94.2
8	Sun Belt	91.1
9	Independents	89.9
10	Conference USA	87.1
11	Mid-American	87.0

 

 

Our Guess at Top 6
1	Ohio St.
2	LSU
3	Clemson
4	Georgia
5	Utah
6	Oklahoma

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Memphis
2	Boise St.
3	Appalachian St.
4	Cincinnati
5	Louisiana

 

PiRate Bowl Projections

One is the loneliest team that you’ll ever know–79 Bowl Eligible Teams For 78 Spots

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Buffalo	Charlotte
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Louisiana Tech]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Navy	Georgia St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Air Force
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Central Florida	Miami (O)
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Washington St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Western Kentucky	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC/MWC	BYU	Hawaii
Independence	ACC	SEC	North Carolina	[Florida Int’l.]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Florida St.	Michigan St.
Military	ACC	AAC	Boston College	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Michigan
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	[Liberty]	[Nevada]
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	Iowa St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Oklahoma	Memphis
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Southern Miss.	[Kent St.]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona St.	Illinois
Music City	SEC	ACC	Kentucky	Indiana
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Virginia	Alabama
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	[Marshall]
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia Tech	California
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Kansas St.	Mississippi St.
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Louisiana	San Diego St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	USC
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Florida	Wisconsin
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Minnesota	Auburn
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Miami (Fla.)]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Tennessee	Louisville
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	[Ohio]	Wyoming
Lending Tree	MAC	SBC	Central Michigan	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	LSU	Clemson
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Utah
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Clemson	Ohio St.
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Special Money Line Plays

We had an upset pick at +200 a couple nights ago, but since we isolated on this one, a bunch of Sharps obviously saw the same value we did.  So, our upset pick is only going off at +195 for now.  We have three Money Line plays to show you this week, two of which are parlays.

Money Line Play #1

Temple +195 vs. Memphis

It’s true that Temple doesn’t enjoy the best home field advantage, but Memphis has a considerable road team disadvantage.  The Tigers have not been tested on the road, and their stats on both sides of the ball are not Boise State worthy at the moment.

Temple dropped a game at Buffalo, but the Owls would beat the Bulls seven times out of 10.  TU’s defense should be just strong enough to hold the Tigers under 28 points, while the Owl offense has a good chance at 30+.  Thus we have strong feelings that Temple will win this game outright.  If you can find this game anywhere at +200, then play it as a gamble.  Our ratings show this a toss-up game, so +200 is quite a bargain if you can find it.

 

Money Line Play #2

Two-game Parlay at +138

 

Eastern Michigan over Ball St.

Central Michigan over New Mexico St.

 

 

Money Line Play #3

Three-game Parlay at +155

Wake Forest over Louisville

Ohio U over Northern Illinois

Baylor over Texas Tech

 

Remember–We do not charge for our selections, and you should consider this information worth what you pay for it.  Please do not lose your mortgage payment because of something you read on this site.  We NEVER wager real money on sporting events.

2019 American Athletic Conference Football Preview

Today, we wrap up the Group of 5 Conference previews with the American Athletic Conference.  The AAC has seen its champion represent the Group of 5 conferences in a New Year’s 6 Bowl Game three times in the five years of the current rules set in place.  While this league is the strongest Group of 5 league to start 2019, we selected Army to be our predicted G5 team to make an NY6 Bowl bid this year.

This is a league about to undergo some transition.  Connecticut will return to the Big East after in 2020, and there will be an opening for another school to join the AAC.  It could be U Mass, Army, or Liberty, but it could also be somebody like Buffalo from the Mid-American Conference or possibly a new FCS school deciding to jump to FBS, like Villanova.

As for this season, the AAC should be a little more competitive than in the recent past.  Central Florida has dominated the league for two consecutive years, and the Golden Knights will be an excellent team once again this year.  However, teams like Cincinnati, Temple, Memphis, and maybe one or two dark horses will make UCF’s path to a “threepeat” quite difficult.

Here is how the American Athletic Conference Media voted in their preseason poll.

American Athletic Conference Media Poll
East Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall Votes
1	Central Florida	19	169
2	Cincinnati	11	157
3	South Florida	0	107
4	Temple	0	101
5	East Carolina	0	66
6	Connecticut	0	30
West Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall Votes
1	Memphis	15	165
2	Houston	14	162
3	Tulane	0	108
4	SMU	1	87
5	Navy	0	70
6	Tulsa	0	38
	Championship Game Winner		Overall Votes
	Central Florida		12
	Cincinnati		8
	Memphis		6
	Houston		4

 

Here are our preseason PiRate Ratings.

Preseason PiRate Ratings–American Athletic
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	107.7	107.1	108.8	107.9
Cincinnati	106.6	105.0	106.8	106.1
Temple	101.9	101.0	103.2	102.0
South Florida	94.4	95.9	94.9	95.1
East Carolina	85.0	87.6	84.9	85.8
Connecticut	75.9	77.9	74.4	76.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	104.0	103.3	105.2	104.2
SMU	98.7	98.4	98.9	98.7
Houston	95.0	96.7	97.8	96.5
Tulane	95.4	96.6	95.5	95.8
Tulsa	91.3	91.9	92.3	91.8
Navy	86.3	89.2	85.9	87.2
AAC Averages	95.2	95.9	95.7	95.6

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

 

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.

 

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss
East Division
Pos	Team	Conference	Overall
1	Cincinnati	6-2	9-4
2	Central Florida	6-2	9-3
3	Temple	5-3	9-3
4	South Florida	5-3	6-6
5	East Carolina	2-6	5-7
6	Connecticut	0-8	1-11
West Division
Pos	Team	Conference	Overall
1	Memphis	6-2	10-3*
2	SMU	5-3	8-4
3	Houston	5-3	7-5
4	Tulane	4-4	6-6
5	Navy	3-5	4-8
6	Tulsa	1-7	3-9
*	Memphis Picked To Win AAC Championship Game

 

Bowl Predictions
Birmingham	SMU
Boca Raton	Central Florida
Cure	Temple
Frisco	Houston
Gasparilla	Cincinnati
Hawaii	Memphis
Military	South Florida

Also Bowl Eligible

Tulane

 

Coaches That Could Move To Power 5 Conferences

Luke Fickell, Cincinnati

Josh Heupel, Central Florida

Mike Norvell, Memphis

Willie Fritz, Tulane

 

Coaches On The Hot Seat

Randy Edsall, Connecticut

Phillip Montgomery, Tulsa

 

Top Quarterbacks

D’Eriq King, Houston

Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati

Brady White, Memphis

 

Top Offense

Central Florida

Memphis

Houston

 

Top Defense

Temple

Memphis

Cincinnati

 

Coming Tomorrow: We start previewing Power 5 Conferences with the ACC

2018 American Athletic Conference Preview

Note: The preseason ratings you see in the previews may not be the same as the ratings you see for the first game. We update every team’s rating based on player injuries, changes to the depth charts, and other factors that may change during preseason practice.

Some of our Group of 5 Conference won-loss predictions were figured before the beginning of August preseason practices. Thus, it could be that a player or players on some teams have already suffered season-ending or multiple game injuries or have left their teams, and these won-loss predictions no longer accurately reflect our ratings. We hope that by the time we preview the Power 5 conferences, we will know who is not going to be available (players and head coaches).

This American Athletic Conference believes the number one team in the nation played within its jurisdiction last year. No, Alabama did not have some type of adjunct relationship with the league. Central Florida was the lone unbeaten team in the nation in 2017. In addition, the Knights did something Alabama was unable to do–beat Auburn.
The PiRate Ratings not only said that UCF was not the top team in the nation, we believed there were four better teams last year. UCF’s running the table reminded us a lot of Penn State in 1968, when the Nittany Lions went 11-0 and beat Kansas in the Orange Bowl. So what did that Penn State team do for an encore in 1969? They merely went 11-0 again with one of the most aggressive defenses and special teams in college football history.
UCF just might run the table again this year, just like that great Penn State team.

However, they will have an extra impediment that Penn State did not have in 1969. Coach Scott Frost took his marbles and went home to alma mater Nebraska. The Knights will try to become the first team since Toledo in 1970 and 1971 to go undefeated in back-to-back seasons with different head coaches. That Toledo team actually ran the table for three consecutive years.
UCF returns a talented quarterback in McKenzie Milton, two talented running backs in Adrian Killins and Otis Anderson, and two highly-skilled receivers Dredrick Snelson and Gabriel Davis that helped team up for 530+ yards and 48+ points per game. The Knights should continue to pile up yards and points again this year, and if the defense can hold serve and put up similar numbers to last year, UCF has a chance to repeat at 13-0. The toughest roadblocks will be road games with North Carolina and Memphis and a home game with Pittsburgh. The regular season finale at South Florida could be a trap game.

Speaking of South Florida, the Bulls are not quite up to UCF’s talent level, and they undergo a slight rebuilding project this year. A splendid offensive team in 2017, USF must break in a new quarterback, a new running back or backs to replace two highly talented backs, and their leading receiver. Things are not all that rosy on the defensive side of the ball, but the Bulls had a lot of talented depth and should be okay on this side of the ball, especially with a defensive mastermind like Charlie Strong as head coach.

Temple continued to win with new coach Geoff Collins taking over for Matt Rhule last year. Collins might have a hard time topping last year’s seven wins, but the rest of the division is not ready to move up, so the Owls might have a shot at another bowl-eligible season. Temple has some stars on both sides of the ball, foremost being rush end Quincy Roche, who recorded seven sacks as a freshman. He’ll join the finest trio of linebackers in the league, and Temple should hold opponents to 21 to 24 points per game this year. If the offense can take a small move forward, Temple can contend with South Florida for second in the division.

The bottom three teams in the East Division fall far short of the top three. Cincinnati appears to be nearing the end of the Luke Fickell era. After a 4-8 season in 2017, the Bearcats look like a team that will find it hard to even equal that mark this year. Pass defense will be a major issue, and even if the pass rush improves this year, UC may take a backward turn against the run. The result should be another year where opponents average north of 30 points per game.

East Carolina and Connecticut face major rebuilding projects and should both win fewer games than a year ago. That’s not an easy task, as they both won just three times in 2017.

Memphis lost just twice in the regular season last year, but both times, it was to Central Florida. The Tigers host UCF in the middle of the season, and the game could match a pair of ranked and undefeated teams. The only reason why Memphis may not top the Knights is the breaking in of a new quarterback. David Moore can run and pass with talent, but he lacks the experience that Milton has at UCF. The Tigers should have a better defense this year with most of the key players back, but the offense is going to backtrack, and with it will go the Tigers’ conference championship hopes in 2018.

When Major Applewhite became Houston’s head coach last year, he heard an edict from the school’s president that 8-4 will get a coach fired there. Applewhite only mustered seven wins in his first year, and 8-4 may be about what to expect in year two. The question is: will 8-4 be good enough in year two? The Cougars lost too much talent on both sides of the ball to make a legitimate move forward. Every full-time starting skill position player at one set position on offense must be replaced. The one exception is D’Eriq King, who began the season as one of the leading receivers on the team and then moved to quarterback in the second half.

Navy has been to 14 bowls in the last 15 years, and with an experienced quarterback returning to run the double slot option offense, the Midshipmen will make it 15 in 16 years. Coach Ken Niumatalolo’s teams usually improve by a couple of games when his quarterback returns, so look for Navy to challenge for double-digit wins this year.

Unlike the East, the bottom three teams in the West could all contend for bowl eligibility this year. Tulane and SMU played a bowl-qualifier in the regular season’s final week last year. Tulane appeared to have the game won at the end, but an incorrect referee’s call gave the game and the Frisco Bowl bid to the Mustangs. The PiRate Ratings don’t call for it, but we believe Coach Willie Fritz will build on this near-miss and push Tulane to bowl eligibility. Expect quarterback Jonathan Banks to increase the Green Wave’s passing efficiency, especially since his starting receiving corps returns in full. While at Georgia Southern, Fritz’s offenses averaged better than 425 yards and 35 points per game, and if TU can match that amount this year, Fritz will be coaching in December.

SMU must start all over with a new coach and new offensive system. The Mustangs should be okay on offense, but their defense is still a mess, and the new offense may force it to stay on the field a tad more this year. It may take 40 points per game for the Mustangs to win six games and make a bowl game again.

Tulsa has the least chance of the three bottom-half teams to make a bowl this year, and a reduction in their athletic budget could signal some lean times in the near future. Last year, the Golden Hurricane could not move the football through the air, and it led to a sub 30 points per game output, and a year after winning 10 games, Tulsa lost 10 games.

Here is how the American Athletic Conference Media voted in the preseason poll.

American Athletic
East	1st Place	Points
1. Central Florida	25	175
2. South Florida	5	140
3. Temple	0	132
4. Cincinnati	0	91
5. Connecticut	0	51
6. East Carolina	0	41
West	1st Place	Points
1. Memphis	23	171
2. Houston	4	146
3. Navy	3	129
4. SMU	0	72
5. Tulane	0	68
6. Tulsa	0	44

Championship Game Winner	Points
Central Florida	19
Memphis	7
South Florida	3
Houston	1

The PiRate Ratings agree almost completely with the media experts with the exception of flip-flopping Tulane and SMU

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	0-0	0-0	110.8	110.4	110.7	110.6
South Florida	0-0	0-0	96.0	99.3	96.9	97.4
Temple	0-0	0-0	95.8	95.8	96.2	95.9
Cincinnati	0-0	0-0	87.1	88.5	86.5	87.3
Connecticut	0-0	0-0	84.1	84.4	82.8	83.8
East Carolina	0-0	0-0	83.1	82.2	82.0	82.4
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	0-0	0-0	104.2	106.3	105.7	105.4
Houston	0-0	0-0	99.9	101.4	101.0	100.8
Navy	0-0	0-0	98.7	101.7	98.5	99.7
Tulane	0-0	0-0	94.4	94.6	94.0	94.3
SMU	0-0	0-0	95.1	93.8	94.0	94.3
Tulsa	0-0	0-0	91.8	90.3	92.3	91.5
AAC Averages			95.1	95.7	95.1	95.3

New Coaches
The biggest coaching change in all of Group of 5 football is at Central Florida, where former Oklahoma passing phenom Josh Heupel takes over for former Nebraska star Scott Frost. Heupel comes from the spread passing philosophy of Bob Stoops and Mike Leach. Heupel most recently served as offensive coordinator at Missouri, where Drew Lock routinely topped 300 yards passing. What a lot of fans might not know is that Heupel’s Missouri offense also finished in the top half of the SEC’s rushing statistics. UCF will most likely continue to average more than 40 points and 500 yards per game.

SMU welcomes former Louisiana Tech and California head coach Sonny Dykes, as he too brings the same offense to Dallas that Heupel will bring to Orlando. Dykes was a special offensive assistant at TCU last year, and the Horned Frogs averaged 33.6 points and 419 yards per game.

Predicted Won-Loss Records
Note: These predicted won-loss records are strictly mechanical based on the initial PiRate Ratings. No upsets are factored in these predictions. Additionally, our PiRate Ratings are only useful for the next week of games and cannot really be used to forecast past that point. Part of our weekly adjustment to our ratings includes a factor where depth issues or non-issues have been pre-set. In other words, a team without talented second stringers may lose ratings points as the season progresses even if they win games by the predicted margin, whereas a team with exceptional depth (like Alabama) will improve during the season and see its rating rise even if they win games by a little less than the predicted margin. What we’re saying is: don’t take these numbers with anything more than a grain of salt.

Team	Conference	Overall
East
Central Florida	8-0	13-0 *
South Florida	5-3	8-4
Temple	5-3	7-5
Cincinnati	2-6	3-9
East Carolina	1-7	2-10
Connecticut	0-8	1-11
West	Conference	Overall
Memphis	7-1	10-3
Navy	6-2	10-3
Houston	6-2	8-4
Tulsa	3-5	5-7
Tulane	3-5	4-8
SMU	2-6	3-9
* Central Florida picked to win AAC Champ. Game

Bowl Tie-ins
The American Athletic Conference has contracts to fill seven bowls with no set pecking order.

Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, TX
Bahamas Bowl in Nassau, Bahamas
Birmingham Bowl in Birmingham, AL
Cure Bowl in Orlando, FL
Frisco Bowl in Frisco, TX (The Home Soccer Stadium for FC Dallas of the MLS).
Gasparilla Bowl in St. Petersburg, FL
Military Bowl in Annapolis, MD

Coming Tomorrow–We begin previewing the Power 5 Conferences. First up is the Big 12.

2016 American Athletic Conference Football Preview

Today, we conclude with our previews of the Group of 5 conferences and throw in the four independents to boot. The American Athletic Conference produced the Group of 5 at-large representative to the New Year’s 6 Bowls last year. Houston represented the little brothers well last year, when the Cougars bested Florida State in the Peach Bowl last year.

Houston should be right in the thick of the AAC and NY6 Bowl race this year, but we believe that another league member is talented enough to take this year’s automatic NY6 Bowl bid, and if they can pull off one upset, maybe even challenge for the #4 seed in the playoffs.

Coach Willie Taggart has his South Florida team ready to make a run toward an undefeated season this year. The Bulls must pull off the upset against Florida State, but USF gets to host the Seminoles in that game a week after FSU must face Louisville on the road.

USF returns an exceptional dual threat quarterback in Quinton Flowers. Flowers topped 1,000 yards rushing (not counting QB sacks, or if NFL statistic rules were used) last year, while averaging more than 8 yards per passing attempt. Seven of his top eight targets from last year return to give the Bulls an improved passing attack. That should allow multi-talented running back Marlon Mack to see less eight-man defensive fronts and give him a chance to improve on his 1,381 rushing yards from a year ago.

Defensively, USF 10 of their top dozen tacklers from a year ago, including potential All-American Deatrick Nichols as a cover cornerback. USF should trim about 5 points and 30-50 total yards off what the defense allowed last year, and that should give the Bulls a fighting chance to conquer that one great matador in their path to a perfect season.

Houston is still the class of the West Division. The Cougars came within an upset loss against Connecticut in November last year of possibly getting into the Playoff picture. Second year head coach Tom Herman proved to be a talented protege of his mentor Urban Meyer, as he guided the Cougars to a 13-1 season. Only a few questions on the defensive side keep us from making UH our clear-cut favorite for the NY6 Bowl, but they only trail USF by a tiny margin as the season begins. What hurts the Cougars is an opening game against Oklahoma at NRG Stadium, and we cannot see the Cougars’ defense being ready to stop the Sooners’ offense. Starting 0-1, Houston will be behind the eight-ball all season. Road games against Cincinnati, Navy, and Memphis may be more than UH can handle, so the Cougars could be a two-loss team heading into the AAC Championship Game.

Here is how the Media picked this year’s AAC race.

American Athletic Conference–East Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	South Florida	15	164	2
2	Temple	9	144	1
3	Cincinnati	6	130
4	Connecticut	0	89
5	East Carolina	0	55
6	Central Florida	0	48
American Athletic Conference–West Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Houston	30	180	27
2	Navy	0	128
3	Memphis	0	124
4	Tulsa	0	92
5	SMU	0	65
6	Tulane	0	41

And, here are how our PiRates rate the teams to begin the 2016 season.

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	108.3	105.7	109.5	107.8
Cincinnati	101.5	102.7	102.5	102.3
Temple	102.2	101.2	103.1	102.2
Connecticut	98.3	96.1	98.6	97.7
East Carolina	91.6	94.6	91.7	92.6
Central Florida	85.9	88.6	85.9	86.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	110.1	108.3	111.9	110.1
Tulsa	99.7	102.2	100.4	100.8
Memphis	102.7	97.8	100.8	100.5
Navy	99.2	99.0	98.6	99.0
SMU	93.7	92.1	93.2	93.0
Tulane	82.2	86.1	82.0	83.4
AAC Averages	98.0	97.9	98.2	98.0

The PiRate Ratings are meant to be used only to predict the outcomes of the next week of games, and are not best used to predict beyond that point.  Because we use algorithms that include automatic adjustments by each team based on depth and experience, two different teams can win by the exact score we predict, and their new ratings might change differently.

 

Thus, using our ratings to predict won-loss records and bowl projections is a bit comical, but then we all need some laughs every now and then.  So, laugh away at our projected standings and bowls.

American Athletic Conference Projected Standings
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
East Division
South Florida	8-0	12-1 *	Cotton–NY6
Temple	6-2	9-3	Military
Cincinnati	4-4	6-6	Birmingham
Connecticut	3-5	4-8
East Carolina	2-6	3-9
Central Florida	1-7	2-10
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
West Division
Houston	8-0	10-3	St. Petersburg
Navy	6-2	8-4	Armed Forces
Tulsa	5-3	8-4	Miami Beach
Memphis	4-4	7-5	Bahamas
SMU	1-7	3-9
Tulane	0-8	3-9
* South Florida to win AAC Title and automatic NY 6 Bowl Bid

Coming Later Today–A look at the four independents.

 

 

 

College Football Preview: October 20-24, 2015

Weekday Bonanza
Other than on Thanksgiving, we are not particularly fans of weekday games in football. However, this week, every weekday game presents an interesting proposition. Take a look at what will be available to you to watch.

Tuesday Night
Louisiana-Lafayette at Arkansas St.: Consider this week a sort of FInal Four in the Sun Belt Conference, as two teams with undefeated SBC records face off in Jonesboro, Arkansas. The winner is almost guaranteed a bowl bid, while the loser will have to fight to get the fourth bid from the league. Expect a lot of fireworks and a high scoring game.

Thursday Night
Temple at East Carolina: Not only is first place up for grabs in the American Athletic Conference East Division, this game serves as a New Year’s Six Bowl Eliminator for Temple. The Owls own a win at Penn State, and a win in this road game would give Temple a resume equal to Houston, Memphis, and Toledo, the three teams contending with the Owls for that big bowl bid. ECU is tough to beat at home, and the Owl defense will have to be ready to play.

Georgia Southern at Appalachian St.: This is the other “semifinal” game in the Sun Belt this week, and it is the battle of the top two teams in the league. Both teams are undefeated in SBC play and 5-1 overall, and both teams’ coaches are on the radar at big schools. This game will be a nice contrast in playing styles, and we are not sure either defense can stop the other teams’ offense.

California at UCLA: These two teams cannot afford another conference loss and remain in contention for their respective divisions in the Pac-12. UCLA lost in a trainwreck last week in the Bruins’ annual punishment at the hands of Stanford. Cal had a week off after blowing a chance to win at Utah.

Friday Night
Memphis at Tulsa: Can Memphis go on the road and win a tough game less than a week after pulling off their most important victory in over 50 years, if not ever? The Tigers sit on top of the Group of 5 poll today, and it they win out, they will be playing in the Fiesta Bowl at season’s end. There are a couple of big impediments in their way, and this game is one of them. Tulsa is looking at seven or eight wins, so you cannot discount them in this game.

Utah St. at San Diego St.: This might be a preview of the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. After destroying Boise St., the Aggies are in control of the Mountain Division race, and after blasting San Jose St., the Aztecs should cruise to the West Division title. Utah St. has the hot offense, and San Diego St. has the tough defense, so this one should be quite entertaining.

 

Don’t think that you can take Saturday off this week. There are a host of games worth watching, including these:
Clemson at Miami: The Hurricanes did everything but beat Florida State two weeks ago, and an upset in this game might save Al Golden’s job. CU has a clear path to the NCAA Playoffs if they win this game, as the remaining toughies are at home.

Auburn at Arkansas: This could be one of those Bowl Eliminator games, with the loser probably dropping to 5-7 at the end of the year.

Duke at Virginia Tech: If the Blue Devils go to Blacksburg and pull off a win, then the Duke-North Carolina game could be the deciding game for the ACC Coastal Division championship. A Tech loss might be the end of the Hokies’ bowl hopes this year and might seal Frank Beamer’s fate, bringing an announcement that he will retire at the end of this season.

Tennessee at Alabama: This rivlary game might still not be back to where it was for decades, but Tennessee had an extra week to prepare, while ‘Bama had to play at Texas A&M. There are just so many weeks that a team can get up for a big game, so this contest may be a lot closer than people expect. The Tide offense is still mostly one dimensional, but that one dimension, the running game, is close to incredible. Still, if Tennessee does not turn the ball over like A&M, the Vols could still be in contention in the fourth quarter.

Washington St. at Arizona: The Pirate has the Cougars in bowl contention. Coach Mike Leach’s Washington State team is sitting at 4-2 with enough winnable games ahead to go bowling this year. Arizona sits in the same position this week and should find its way to bowl eligibility. This one is for jockeying position with the winner having a leg up on going to a warmer locale in December.

Western Kentucky at LSU: Okay, we are not saying that the Hilltoppers will challenge for an upset in this game, but LSU has had defensive lulls in the middle of every game this year. If the Tigers have that issue in this game, WKU could score 21 to 28 points in a hurry, making Leonard Fournette play all four quarters. LSU needs a couple of breather games to rest Fournette for the upcoming game at Alabama.

Utah at USC: This game has “that look.” Utah is in position to earn a surprise playoff berth, but they have a minefield in front of their way to a possible 13-0 record. USC is struggling to even get to 6-6 after all the issues this team has dealt with this season. This is the Trojans’ first home game since the dismissal of Steve Sarkisian, and teams usually play the best they are going to play in their first home game under an interim coach. The Trojans looked good at Notre Dame, and it figures that they will be ready to give the Utes all they can handle.

 

This Week’s Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Baylor	130.4	127.2	131.5	129.7
2	Alabama	129.2	127.1	129.0	128.4
3	TCU	128.1	119.2	128.6	125.3
4	Ohio St.	126.7	120.9	127.4	125.0
5	Utah	125.8	120.2	125.3	123.8
6	Oklahoma	124.3	120.9	124.2	123.1
7	Stanford	123.5	122.1	123.5	123.0
8	LSU	123.0	119.7	122.9	121.9
9	Notre Dame	123.0	119.7	123.0	121.9
10	USC	120.2	116.7	120.2	119.0
11	Texas A&M	119.8	117.4	118.5	118.6
12	Clemson	117.7	118.5	118.0	118.1
13	Florida	118.8	115.8	119.0	117.9
14	Michigan	119.0	115.7	118.8	117.8
15	Tennessee	119.4	114.7	118.9	117.7
16	North Carolina	117.5	117.9	117.5	117.6
17	Ole Miss	120.3	114.3	117.9	117.5
18	UCLA	120.3	114.0	118.1	117.5
19	Georgia	119.7	112.4	118.5	116.9
20	California	117.8	112.8	117.9	116.2
21	Arkansas	118.2	112.6	117.4	116.1
22	Michigan St.	116.3	112.6	115.9	114.9
23	Florida St.	114.6	115.4	113.8	114.6
24	Arizona St.	116.1	111.1	115.2	114.1
25	Mississippi St.	114.4	110.9	114.5	113.3
26	Oregon	115.6	108.7	114.8	113.0
27	Georgia Tech	114.3	111.6	113.0	113.0
28	Oklahoma St.	113.3	111.4	113.5	112.7
29	Auburn	113.8	111.6	112.8	112.7
30	West Virginia	114.6	109.3	113.9	112.6
31	Iowa	110.6	113.2	111.5	111.8
32	Boise St.	113.0	108.8	112.8	111.5
33	Wisconsin	110.3	110.8	109.8	110.3
34	North Carolina St.	109.9	111.1	108.8	109.9
35	Nebraska	110.8	108.9	110.1	109.9
36	Arizona	111.8	106.1	110.8	109.6
37	Memphis	109.1	109.1	110.3	109.5
38	Duke	108.9	109.7	109.9	109.5
39	Virginia Tech	110.1	108.8	109.7	109.5
40	Louisville	108.6	110.9	108.6	109.4
41	Temple	108.1	110.2	108.8	109.0
42	Missouri	110.3	107.0	109.5	108.9
43	Western Kentucky	107.7	108.0	109.7	108.5
44	Miami	107.9	108.5	108.7	108.4
45	Pittsburgh	107.3	108.2	108.5	108.0
46	Houston	104.3	112.0	107.0	107.8
47	Washington	107.4	104.8	108.0	106.7
48	Texas	107.3	104.9	107.2	106.5
49	Texas Tech	109.0	100.2	108.8	106.0
50	BYU	105.7	104.9	106.6	105.7
51	Illinois	106.7	104.5	105.6	105.6
52	Toledo	104.2	105.0	105.9	105.0
53	South Carolina	106.8	103.1	104.9	104.9
54	Penn St.	104.2	105.5	104.4	104.7
55	Kentucky	105.9	102.5	105.0	104.5
56	Utah St.	104.1	104.1	104.6	104.3
57	Bowling Green	101.7	106.5	104.2	104.1
58	Cincinnati	103.7	103.7	104.7	104.0
59	Minnesota	104.1	102.6	103.2	103.3
60	Northwestern	103.0	103.2	102.4	102.9
61	Kansas St.	106.3	95.7	105.7	102.6
62	Appalachian St.	100.8	103.9	102.8	102.5
63	Colorado	104.4	99.1	102.8	102.1
64	Navy	100.3	103.4	101.1	101.6
65	Washington St.	102.7	98.4	102.0	101.0
66	Boston College	100.2	104.3	98.5	101.0
67	Western Michigan	99.7	99.8	101.1	100.2
68	San Diego St.	98.0	103.0	99.4	100.1
69	Louisiana Tech	99.8	97.8	100.0	99.2
70	Vanderbilt	101.0	95.9	100.5	99.1
71	Virginia	99.7	97.2	98.8	98.6
72	East Carolina	96.4	100.0	97.4	97.9
73	Georgia Southern	96.5	98.9	97.5	97.6
74	Rutgers	98.6	95.9	97.2	97.2
75	Purdue	97.9	97.2	96.4	97.2
76	Northern Illinois	95.1	98.5	95.9	96.5
77	Marshall	95.8	96.9	96.6	96.4
78	Indiana	96.3	96.8	95.7	96.3
79	Wake Forest	94.9	98.6	94.0	95.8
80	Middle Tennessee	95.7	94.8	95.4	95.3
81	Syracuse	93.7	96.8	92.9	94.5
82	South Florida	91.5	98.1	92.2	93.9
83	Air Force	92.4	96.0	91.5	93.3
84	Iowa St.	94.9	90.7	94.0	93.2
85	Colorado St.	93.9	92.1	92.6	92.9
86	Central Michigan	90.6	94.8	93.1	92.8
87	Maryland	94.1	91.3	93.0	92.8
88	Tulsa	90.4	95.2	91.3	92.3
89	Florida International	91.1	93.4	92.5	92.3
90	San Jose St.	91.0	94.0	90.8	91.9
91	Ohio	89.6	93.7	91.2	91.5
92	Southern Mississippi	90.1	91.3	90.4	90.6
93	Arkansas St.	89.0	89.6	90.1	89.6
94	Nevada	88.5	92.2	87.8	89.5
95	Oregon St.	91.0	87.8	89.0	89.3
96	New Mexico	88.5	89.2	87.3	88.3
97	Connecticut	85.9	91.4	86.6	88.0
98	Hawaii	87.2	89.4	87.2	87.9
99	Massachusetts	85.8	88.9	86.9	87.2
100	SMU	85.1	89.0	85.1	86.4
101	Central Florida	84.6	88.0	85.3	86.0
102	Akron	83.3	89.6	84.7	85.9
103	Tulane	85.2	87.6	83.9	85.6
104	Rice	83.9	87.8	84.4	85.4
105	UL-Lafayette	83.9	87.7	84.5	85.4
106	Kent St.	83.3	85.8	84.1	84.4
107	UNLV	82.7	85.3	83.4	83.8
108	Buffalo	80.6	87.4	82.8	83.6
109	Fresno St.	82.1	86.2	80.7	83.0
110	Florida Atlantic	81.1	84.4	81.1	82.2
111	Ball St.	81.4	83.2	81.6	82.1
112	UT-San Antonio	80.6	83.0	81.6	81.7
113	Army	77.6	87.1	79.1	81.3
114	Texas St.	79.9	83.4	79.0	80.8
115	Wyoming	80.1	82.8	79.3	80.7
116	South Alabama	75.7	82.1	77.1	78.3
117	Old Dominion	76.2	81.4	74.9	77.5
118	UL-Monroe	78.2	76.2	78.0	77.5
119	Georgia St.	76.8	76.4	77.0	76.7
120	UTEP	75.7	78.1	75.3	76.4
121	Kansas	78.1	71.4	76.1	75.2
122	Eastern Michigan	72.6	80.1	72.0	74.9
123	Troy	73.9	75.3	75.4	74.9
124	Idaho	72.0	78.5	73.6	74.7
125	Miami (O)	72.7	77.1	72.5	74.1
126	New Mexico St.	73.6	74.6	73.6	73.9
127	North Texas	72.1	77.0	71.8	73.6
128	Charlotte	69.5	72.1	69.6	70.4

 

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Ohio St.
2	Alabama
3	TCU
4	Utah
5	Baylor
6	LSU
7	Oklahoma
8	Clemson
9	Florida St.
10	Michigan St.
11	Iowa
12	Michigan
13	Stanford
14	Florida
15	Notre Dame
16	California
17	Memphis
18	Oklahoma St.
19	Toledo
20	Houston
21	Mississippi St.
22	Texas A&M
23	BYU
24	Duke
25	Pittsburgh
26	North Carolina
27	Ole Miss
28	Temple
29	UCLA
30	Navy
31	Wisconsin
32	Utah St.
33	Georgia
34	Northwestern
35	Texas Tech
36	Boise St.
37	Tennessee
38	USC
39	Western Kentucky
40	Auburn
41	Oregon
42	Miami (FL)
43	Bowling Green
44	West Virginia
45	Appalachian St.
46	Illinois
47	Penn St.
48	Texas
49	Marshall
50	Georgia Southern
51	Arizona St.
52	Arizona
53	Washington
54	East Carolina
55	Nebraska
56	Washington St.
57	Kentucky
58	Arkansas
59	Kansas St.
60	Missouri
61	North Carolina St.
62	Western Michigan
63	South Carolina
64	Louisville
65	Northern Illinois
66	Rutgers
67	Central Michigan
68	South Florida
69	Cincinnati
70	Louisiana Tech
71	San Diego St.
72	Virginia Tech
73	Georgia Tech
74	Indiana
75	Minnesota
76	Boston College
77	Iowa St.
78	Virginia
79	Ohio U
80	Arkansas St.
81	Southern Miss.
82	Syracuse
83	Air Force
84	Maryland
85	Tulsa
86	Colorado St.
87	Vanderbilt
88	Wake Forest
89	Rice
90	Middle Tennessee
91	Kent St.
92	Oregon St.
93	Colorado
94	Connecticut
95	San Jose St.
96	Akron
97	New Mexico
98	South Alabama
99	Old Dominion
100	Purdue
101	UNLV
102	Louisiana-Lafayette
103	SMU
104	Florida Int’l.
105	Ball St.
106	Army
107	Buffalo
108	Nevada
109	Idaho
110	Tulane
111	Hawaii
112	Massachusetts
113	Fresno St.
114	Idaho
115	Louisiana-Monroe
116	Kansas
117	Georgia St.
118	Wyoming
119	UT-San Antonio
120	Texas St.
121	Central Florida
122	Troy
123	Miami (O)
124	Eastern Michigan
125	UTEP
126	Charlotte
127	North Texas
128	New Mexico St.

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Temple	3-0	6-0	108.1	110.2	108.8	109.0
Cincinnati	0-2	3-3	103.7	103.7	104.7	104.0
East Carolina	2-1	4-3	96.4	100.0	97.4	97.9
South Florida	1-1	3-3	91.5	98.1	92.2	93.9
Connecticut	1-2	3-4	85.9	91.4	86.6	88.0
Central Florida	0-3	0-7	84.6	88.0	85.3	86.0
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	2-0	6-0	109.1	109.1	110.3	109.5
Houston	3-0	6-0	104.3	112.0	107.0	107.8
Navy	2-0	4-1	100.3	103.4	101.1	101.6
Tulsa	0-2	3-3	90.4	95.2	91.3	92.3
SMU	0-2	1-5	85.1	89.0	85.1	86.4
Tulane	1-2	2-4	85.2	87.6	83.9	85.6
AAC Averages			95.4	99.0	96.1	96.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	3-0	6-0	117.7	118.5	118.0	118.1
Florida St.	4-0	6-0	114.6	115.4	113.8	114.6
North Carolina St.	0-2	4-2	109.9	111.1	108.8	109.9
Louisville	1-2	2-4	108.6	110.9	108.6	109.4
Boston College	0-4	3-4	100.2	104.3	98.5	101.0
Wake Forest	1-3	3-4	94.9	98.6	94.0	95.8
Syracuse	1-1	3-3	93.7	96.8	92.9	94.5
Coastal Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	2-0	5-1	117.5	117.9	117.5	117.6
Georgia Tech	0-4	2-5	114.3	111.6	113.0	113.0
Duke	2-0	5-1	108.9	109.7	109.9	109.5
Virginia Tech	1-2	3-4	110.1	108.8	109.7	109.5
Miami	1-1	4-2	107.9	108.5	108.7	108.4
Pittsburgh	3-0	5-1	107.3	108.2	108.5	108.0
Virginia	1-1	2-4	99.7	97.2	98.8	98.6
ACC Averages			107.5	108.4	107.2	107.7
Big 12 Conference
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Baylor	3-0	6-0	130.4	127.2	131.5	129.7
TCU	4-0	7-0	128.1	119.2	128.6	125.3
Oklahoma	2-1	5-1	124.3	120.9	124.2	123.1
Oklahoma St.	3-0	6-0	113.3	111.4	113.5	112.7
West Virginia	0-3	3-3	114.6	109.3	113.9	112.6
Texas	1-2	2-4	107.3	104.9	107.2	106.5
Texas Tech	2-2	5-2	109.0	100.2	108.8	106.0
Kansas St.	0-3	3-3	106.3	95.7	105.7	102.6
Iowa St.	1-2	2-4	94.9	90.7	94.0	93.2
Kansas	0-3	0-6	78.1	71.4	76.1	75.2
Big 12 Averages			110.6	105.1	110.4	108.7
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	3-0	7-0	126.7	120.9	127.4	125.0
Michigan	2-1	5-2	119.0	115.7	118.8	117.8
Michigan St.	3-0	7-0	116.3	112.6	115.9	114.9
Penn St.	2-1	5-2	104.2	105.5	104.4	104.7
Rutgers	1-2	3-3	98.6	95.9	97.2	97.2
Indiana	0-3	4-3	96.3	96.8	95.7	96.3
Maryland	0-2	2-4	94.1	91.3	93.0	92.8
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Iowa	3-0	7-0	110.6	113.2	111.5	111.8
Wisconsin	2-1	5-2	110.3	110.8	109.8	110.3
Nebraska	1-2	3-4	110.8	108.9	110.1	109.9
Illinois	1-1	4-2	106.7	104.5	105.6	105.6
Minnesota	1-2	4-3	104.1	102.6	103.2	103.3
Northwestern	1-2	5-2	103.0	103.2	102.4	102.9
Purdue	0-3	1-6	97.9	97.2	96.4	97.2
Big Ten Averages			107.0	105.7	106.5	106.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	4-0	6-1	107.7	108.0	109.7	108.5
Marshall	3-0	6-1	95.8	96.9	96.6	96.4
Middle Tennessee	2-1	3-4	95.7	94.8	95.4	95.3
Florida International	1-2	3-4	91.1	93.4	92.5	92.3
Florida Atlantic	1-2	1-5	81.1	84.4	81.1	82.2
Old Dominion	1-1	3-3	76.2	81.4	74.9	77.5
Charlotte	0-3	2-4	69.5	72.1	69.6	70.4
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	2-1	4-3	99.8	97.8	100.0	99.2
Southern Mississippi	2-1	4-3	90.1	91.3	90.4	90.6
Rice	2-1	3-3	83.9	87.8	84.4	85.4
UT-San Antonio	1-2	1-6	80.6	83.0	81.6	81.7
UTEP	0-2	2-4	75.7	78.1	75.3	76.4
North Texas	0-3	0-6	72.1	77.0	71.8	73.6
CUSA Averages			86.1	88.2	86.4	86.9
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		6-1	123.0	119.7	123.0	121.9
BYU		5-2	105.7	104.9	106.6	105.7
Army		2-5	77.6	87.1	79.1	81.3
Independents Averages			102.1	103.9	102.9	103.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Bowling Green	3-0	5-2	101.7	106.5	104.2	104.1
Ohio	2-1	5-2	89.6	93.7	91.2	91.5
Massachusetts	0-2	1-5	85.8	88.9	86.9	87.2
Akron	1-2	3-4	83.3	89.6	84.7	85.9
Kent St.	2-1	3-4	83.3	85.8	84.1	84.4
Buffalo	0-2	2-4	80.6	87.4	82.8	83.6
Miami (O)	0-3	1-6	72.7	77.1	72.5	74.1
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	3-0	6-0	104.2	105.0	105.9	105.0
Western Michigan	2-0	3-3	99.7	99.8	101.1	100.2
Northern Illinois	2-1	4-3	95.1	98.5	95.9	96.5
Central Michigan	2-1	3-4	90.6	94.8	93.1	92.8
Ball St.	1-2	2-5	81.4	83.2	81.6	82.1
Eastern Michigan	0-3	1-6	72.6	80.1	72.0	74.9
MAC Averages			87.7	91.6	88.9	89.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	2-1	5-2	113.0	108.8	112.8	111.5
Utah St.	3-0	4-2	104.1	104.1	104.6	104.3
Air Force	2-1	3-3	92.4	96.0	91.5	93.3
Colorado St.	1-2	3-4	93.9	92.1	92.6	92.9
New Mexico	2-1	4-3	88.5	89.2	87.3	88.3
Wyoming	1-2	1-6	80.1	82.8	79.3	80.7
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	3-0	4-3	98.0	103.0	99.4	100.1
San Jose St.	2-2	3-4	91.0	94.0	90.8	91.9
Nevada	1-2	3-4	88.5	92.2	87.8	89.5
Hawaii	0-3	2-5	87.2	89.4	87.2	87.9
UNLV	1-2	2-5	82.7	85.3	83.4	83.8
Fresno St.	1-3	2-5	82.1	86.2	80.7	83.0
MWC Averages			91.8	93.6	91.5	92.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Stanford	4-0	5-1	123.5	122.1	123.5	123.0
California	2-1	5-1	117.8	112.8	117.9	116.2
Oregon	2-2	4-3	115.6	108.7	114.8	113.0
Washington	1-2	3-3	107.4	104.8	108.0	106.7
Washington St.	2-1	4-2	102.7	98.4	102.0	101.0
Oregon St.	0-3	2-4	91.0	87.8	89.0	89.3
South Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	3-0	6-0	125.8	120.2	125.3	123.8
USC	1-2	3-3	120.2	116.7	120.2	119.0
UCLA	1-2	4-2	120.3	114.0	118.1	117.5
Arizona St.	2-2	4-3	116.1	111.1	115.2	114.1
Arizona	2-2	5-2	111.8	106.1	110.8	109.6
Colorado	0-3	3-4	104.4	99.1	102.8	102.1
Pac-12 Averages			113.1	108.5	112.3	111.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida	4-1	6-1	118.8	115.8	119.0	117.9
Tennessee	1-2	3-3	119.4	114.7	118.9	117.7
Georgia	3-2	5-2	119.7	112.4	118.5	116.9
Missouri	1-3	4-3	110.3	107.0	109.5	108.9
South Carolina	1-4	3-4	106.8	103.1	104.9	104.9
Kentucky	2-2	4-2	105.9	102.5	105.0	104.5
Vanderbilt	0-3	2-4	101.0	95.9	100.5	99.1
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	3-1	6-1	129.2	127.1	129.0	128.4
LSU	4-0	6-0	123.0	119.7	122.9	121.9
Texas A&M	2-1	5-1	119.8	117.4	118.5	118.6
Ole Miss	2-1	5-2	120.3	114.3	117.9	117.5
Arkansas	1-2	2-4	118.2	112.6	117.4	116.1
Mississippi St.	1-2	5-2	114.4	110.9	114.5	113.3
Auburn	1-2	4-2	113.8	111.6	112.8	112.7
SEC Averages			115.8	111.8	115.0	114.2
Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	2-0	5-1	100.8	103.9	102.8	102.5
Georgia Southern	3-0	5-1	96.5	98.9	97.5	97.6
Arkansas St.	2-0	3-3	89.0	89.6	90.1	89.6
UL-Lafayette	1-0	2-3	83.9	87.7	84.5	85.4
Texas St.	0-1	1-4	79.9	83.4	79.0	80.8
South Alabama	1-1	3-3	75.7	82.1	77.1	78.3
UL-Monroe	0-2	1-5	78.2	76.2	78.0	77.5
Georgia St.	1-1	2-4	76.8	76.4	77.0	76.7
Troy	0-2	1-5	73.9	75.3	75.4	74.9
Idaho	1-2	2-4	72.0	78.5	73.6	74.7
New Mexico St.	0-2	0-6	73.6	74.6	73.6	73.9
Sun Belt Averages			81.8	84.2	82.6	82.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	115.8	111.8	115.0	114.2
2	Pac-12	113.1	108.5	112.3	111.3
3	Big 12	110.6	105.1	110.4	108.7
4	ACC	107.5	108.4	107.2	107.7
5	Big Ten	107.0	105.7	106.5	106.4
6	Indep.	102.1	103.9	102.9	103.0
7	AAC	95.4	99.0	96.1	96.8
8	MWC	91.8	93.6	91.5	92.3
9	MAC	87.7	91.6	88.9	89.4
10	CUSA	86.1	88.2	86.4	86.9
11	SBC	81.8	84.2	82.6	82.9

 

NCAA Playoffs
1	Ohio St.
2	LSU
3	Utah
4	Clemson

 

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
#	Team
1	Memphis
2	Houston
3	Toledo
4	Temple
5	Navy

 

Power 5 Bottom 10

#	Team
10	Virginia
9	Rutgers
8	Purdue
7	Indiana
6	Wake Forest
5	Syracuse
4	Iowa St.
3	Maryland
2	Oregon St.
1	Kansas

 

FCS Top 10
#	Team	PiRate
1	Jacksonville St.	96.8
2	Harvard	94.9
3	Coastal Carolina	91.7
4	Dartmouth	91.6
5	North Dakota St.	91.3
6	South Dakota St.	91.3
7	James Madison	90.2
8	Illinois St.	90.0
9	McNeese St.	89.4
10	Portland St.	88.9

 

This Week’s Games
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tuesday, October 20
Arkansas St.	Louisiana-Lafayette	7.6	4.4	8.1
Thursday, October 22
East Carolina	Temple	-8.7	-7.2	-8.4
Appalachian St.	Georgia Southern	6.8	7.5	7.8
UCLA	California	5.5	4.2	3.2
Friday, October 23
Tulsa	Memphis	-15.7	-10.9	-16.0
San Diego St.	Utah St.	-3.1	1.9	-2.2
Saturday, October 24
Miami (Fla)	Clemson	-6.8	-7.0	-6.3
Arkansas	Auburn	7.4	4.0	7.6
Wake Forest	North Carolina St.	-13.0	-10.5	-12.8
Syracuse	Pittsburgh	-10.6	-8.4	-12.6
Texas	Kansas St.	4.0	12.2	4.5
Rice	Army	9.3	3.7	8.3
Baylor	Iowa St.	38.5	39.5	40.5
Nebraska	Northwestern	10.8	8.7	10.7
Charlotte	Southern Miss.	-18.1	-16.7	-18.3
Central Florida	Houston	-17.2	-21.5	-19.2
Louisville	Boston College	11.4	9.6	13.1
Navy	Tulane	18.1	18.8	20.2
Kent St.	Bowling Green	-16.4	-18.7	-18.1
Air Force	Fresno St.	13.3	12.8	13.8
Western Michigan	Miami (O)	29.5	25.2	31.1
Massachusetts	Toledo	-15.4	-13.1	-16.0
Ball St.	Central Michigan	-6.7	-9.1	-9.0
Buffalo	Ohio U	-6.0	-3.3	-5.4
Northern Illinois	Eastern Michigan	25.5	21.4	26.9
Louisiana Tech	Middle Tennessee	7.1	6.0	7.6
Marshall	North Texas	26.7	22.9	27.8
Oklahoma	Texas Tech	18.3	23.7	18.4
Oklahoma St.	Kansas	38.2	43.0	40.4
Illinois	Wisconsin	-0.6	-3.3	-1.2
Maryland	Penn St.	-7.6	-11.7	-8.9
Michigan St.	Indiana	23.0	18.8	23.2
Georgia Tech	Florida St.	2.7	-0.8	2.2
Virginia Tech	Duke	4.2	2.1	2.8
Alabama	Tennessee	12.8	15.4	13.1
North Carolina	Virginia	20.8	23.7	21.7
Arizona	Washington St.	12.1	10.7	11.8
Vanderbilt	Missouri	-7.3	-9.1	-7.0
South Florida	SMU	9.4	12.1	10.1
Nevada	Hawaii	5.3	6.8	4.6
Cincinnati	Connecticut	20.8	15.3	21.1
Idaho	Louisiana-Monroe	-3.2	5.3	-1.4
Florida Int’l.	Old Dominion	17.9	15.0	20.6
UTEP	Florida Atlantic	-2.9	-3.8	-3.3
Ole Miss	Texas A&M	3.5	-0.1	2.4
LSU	Western Kentucky	18.3	14.7	16.2
Texas St.	South Alabama	6.7	3.8	4.4
San Jose St.	New Mexico	5.5	7.8	6.5
Mississippi St.	Kentucky	11.5	11.4	12.5
USC	Utah	-2.6	-0.5	-2.1
Rutgers	Ohio St.	-25.1	-22.0	-27.2
New Mexico St.	Troy	2.2	1.8	0.7
Boise St.	Wyoming	35.9	29.0	36.5
Oregon St.	Colorado	-10.4	-8.3	-10.8
Stanford	Washington	19.1	20.3	18.5
FBS vs. FCS	Week 8	PiRate
BYU	Wagner	51

 

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
Cure	AAC	SBC	Temple	vs.	Arkansas St.
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	San Jose St.	vs.	Florida Int’l.
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC/BYU	Washington St.	vs.	Utah St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ohio	vs.	South Alabama
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	vs.	Appalachian St.
Miami Beach	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	vs.	Marshall
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Akron	vs.	Boise St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	South Florida	vs.	Northern Illinois
Poinsettia	MWC	Army	San Diego St.	vs.	USC *
GoDaddy	MAC	SBC	Bowling Green	vs.	Georgia Southern
Bahamas	CUSA	MAC	Western Kentucky	vs.	Toledo
Hawaii	AAC	MWC/BYU	Tulsa	vs.	BYU
St. Petersburg	AAC	CUSA	East Carolina	vs.	Southern Miss.
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Pittsburgh	vs.	UCLA
Heart of Dallas	Big 12	CUSA	Texas	vs.	Rice
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Duke	vs.	Rutgers
Independence	SEC	ACC	Kentucky	vs.	Miami (Fl)
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	vs.	Oregon
Military	ACC	AAC	Virginia Tech	vs.	Navy
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	vs.	Indiana
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Louisiana-Lafayette *	vs.	Air Force
Russell Athletic	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	vs.	Oklahoma
Arizona	CUSA	MWC	Middle Tennessee	vs.	Colorado St.
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	vs.	Ole Miss
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	vs.	Auburn
Belk	ACC	SEC	North Carolina	vs.	Tennessee
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Louisville	vs.	Mississippi St.
Peach	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	Clemson	vs.	Michigan St.
Cotton	Playoff	Playoff	Baylor	vs.	Florida St.
Orange	Playoff	Playoff	Ohio St.	vs.	Alabama
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	vs.	Arizona St.
Ouback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan	vs.	Texas A&M
Citrus	Big Ten	SEC	Wisconsin	vs.	Florida
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	LSU	vs.	TCU
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Stanford	vs.	Iowa
Fiesta	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	Utah	vs.	Houston
TaxSlayer	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Illinois	vs.	Georgia
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	West Virginia	vs.	Arkansas
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	vs.	California
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	vs.	Arizona
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Ohio St.	vs.	Baylor
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot

 

2015 American Athletic Conference Preview

2015 brings changes to the American Athletic Conference.  Navy joins the league, giving the AAC 12 teams, and with 12, you get a championship game.  The league has now been divided into divisions with Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, East Carolina, South Florida, and Temple placed in the East, and Houston, Memphis, Navy, SMU, Tulane, and Tulsa placed in the West.

Last year, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Central Florida tied for first with East Carolina, Houston, and Temple finishing bowl eligible.  Only Temple failed to earn a bowl bid.  This year, as many as eight teams could wind up bowl eligible, but the league will probably just send seven teams to bowls.  Not having the planned Austin Bowl this year will be a major bummer to one possible 6-6 team.

The clear-cut media favorite in the East Division is Cincinnati.  Coach Tommy Tuberville’s first two Bearcat teams ended with identical 9-4 records, which followed consecutive 10-3 records by his predecessor Butch Jones.  Tuberville welcomes back the vagabond quarterback Gunner Kiel, who when he finally settled on Nippert Stadium as his home field, instantly became the top passer in the league last year.  Kiel helped Cinti top 300 passing yards per game in 2014, and 2015 should be more of the same, as the top six receivers are back in the fold.  The Bearcats must rebuild in the defensive front seven, but they have a seasoned and talented secondary, so don’t expect much falloff on this side of the ball.

Temple began to turn the corner last year under Coach Matt Rhule, as the Owls finished 6-6 after going 2-10 the year before.  Rhule welcomes back a league high 19 starters as well as better than 80% of the letterwinners from 2014, and this TU team is talented enough to edge out Cincinnati for the East Division title.  The Owls must play the Bearcats in the Queen City, and that game will take place early in the season on September 12.  Temple must play Penn State the week before, while UC gets a patsy in Alabama A&M.  If the Temple front seven can stay healthy in week one, the Owls can slow down Cinti’s offense and have a chance to get the upper hand in the division race.

The drop from number two to number three in the East is steep.  Central Florida must rebuild on both sides of the ball, as Coach George O’Leary lost all of his key pass catchers on offense and all of his starting secondary and his top five tacklers from last year.  There is enough talent remaining for UCF to post a winning record, but the Knights will be fighting off East Carolina for third and not the top two contenders.

Speaking of East Carolina, the Pirates also face a minor rebuilding reclamation.  Shane Carden graduated as the top passer in school history and Justin Hardy left as the top receiver in school history, and it will be impossible to replace their contributions.  A better than average offensive line will make it a bit easier for new skill position players to have some success, but the offensive points per game is going to take a hit.  Defensively, ECU is thin on the front line, so the rushing defense could weaken as the season wears on.

Willie Taggart maybe has one more season to resurrect the South Florida program.  Coach T doubled the wins from two to four in year two, but Bulls fans believe this team should dominate the league, and they may look to make changes if USF doesn’t double the win total again this year.  That is not going to happen, as the Bulls must start anew on the offensive end.  Taggart is switching to a faster-paced offense, and breaking in a new quarterback with a new offense is a recipe for many mistakes, mistakes which lead to losses.  The USF defense should be improved, but the offense may not give the stop troops a lot of rest.

Connecticut has not enjoyed a good season since 2010, when former coach Randy Edsall took the Huskies to the Fiesta Bowl.  Second year coach Bob Diaco went 2-10 in his first year in Storrs, and this year’s team is more talented.  However, more talented may only lead to closer losses, as both sides of the interior line are not yet up to AAC standards.

The race in the West Division should be a three-team affair.  Memphis, Houston, and Navy all have the horses to take the division crown, while Tulane, Tulsa, and SMU should fight for fourth.
Memphis was the big surprise in the league last year.  Coach Justin Fuente began his coaching career with 4-8 and 3-9 records, and the Tigers were not expected to do any better in 2014.  After beginning the season 2-2 with expected wins over Austin Peay and Middle Tennessee with competitive losses to UCLA and Ole Miss, Memphis blew Cincinnati off the Liberty Bowl field.  Following a close loss to Houston, the Tigers then ran the table to finish 10-3, including a bowl win over BYU.

This year, Memphis has the bulk of its offense returning, and the Tigers could threaten to average 40 points per game.  They are going to need those points, because the defense was decimated by graduation losses.  Only one starter from the back seven returns, and the pass defense will get a Baptism under fire with early games against pass happy Bowling Green, Cincinnati, and Ole Miss.

Houston welcomes a new coach after firing a coach that went 8-5 in back-to-back seasons.  There are many examples in the past where schools got too stingy and replaced a better than average coach with what they thought was an even better coach, only to experience many disappointing seasons.  Can Tom Herman bring the Urban Meyer magic to Houston?  Herman was Ohio State’s offensive coordinator, but Herman couldn’t bring along Cardale Jones, J. T. Barrett, Ezekiel Elliott, or Braxton Miller.  He’ll have to make do with better than average Greg Ward at quarterback, talented Kenneth Farrow at running back, and a group of credible but not flashy wide receivers.  His offensive line won’t remind him of the Buckeye line he had last year.  Defensively, the Cougars return the bulk of the two deep secondary, and this will be the best pass defense in the league.

Navy brings the spread option offense to the league, and because none of their conference foes faced this offense last year, the Midshipmen will benefit from the lack of experience facing the regular and triple option.  Coach Ken Niumatalolo typically starts as many seniors as he can, so every year, Navy must break in a batch of new starters.  However, one player that returns to his spot is quarterback Keenan Reynolds.  An experienced option quarterback is like a Major League baseball team having three 20-game winners in its starting rotation.  Reynolds should leave Navy as the all-time leading rusher, and he is going to set a mark for career rushing touchdowns by a quarterback that may not be topped for decades.

Tulane represents the best of the rest in the West.  The Green Wave should be much improved over last year’s 3-9 mark, and it would not surprise us if Coach Curtis Johnson guides TU back to bowl eligibility.  Last year’s offense actually outgained the 2013 offense in yardage but scored eight fewer points per game.  Look for TU to return to the 2013 scoring rate.  The Green Wave defense is not strong enough to stop the top teams in the league, so fourth is the best this team can hope for in the division.

There was a time when Tulsa would have dominated the West Division if not the entire league.  In 2008, the Golden Hurricane offense led the nation with 47.2 points per game and 570 total yards per game.  In 2012, TU won the Conference USA championship and then knocked off Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl.  Since then, TU has won just five of 24 games, and that has brought a coaching change.  Enter Phillip Montgomery, the former Baylor assistant who mentored RGIII and Bryce Petty.  There is good news and bad news for TU fans this year.  The good news: expect Montgomery’s air show to light up the scoreboards and bring a lot of  excitement to Champan Stadium.  With 10 starters returning, including a fine quarterback in Dane Evans and a potential NFL receiver in Keevan Lucas, the Hurricane should top 30 points per game and maybe even 35 with the new wide open passing game.  The bad news: the defense is going to give up points just as quickly as the offense and maybe even a bit quicker.  It adds up to a season where there won’t be a lot of kicks on Route 66 down in T-Town.

SMU is almost back in the same position as they were when they returned from the Death Penalty in the 1980’s.  Following a 1-11 season where the Mustangs played like more like Shetland Ponies, the school has made sweeping changes.  Gone is Coach June Jones and his run and shoot offense.  Enter former Clemson offensive guru Chad Morris and his spread offense.  Morris is highly connected in the Lonestar State, and he will eventually bring enough talent to return SMU to some of its former glory, but it isn’t going to happen in year one.  SMU can hope to double its win total this year, but 2-10 is not much to get excited over.  There is a long way to go to return to respectability.

Here are the AAC Media’s preseason predictions.

American Athletic Conference Media Poll
Pos.	Team	1st Place	Total
East Division
1	Cincinnati	29	179
2	Central Florida	1	135
3	Temple	0	116
4	East Carolina	0	105
5	South Florida	0	53
6	Connecticut	0	42
West Division
1	Memphis	13	153
2	Houston	10	149
3	Navy	7	148
4	Tulane	0	74
5	SMU	0	59
6	Tulsa	0	47
	Overall Champion
	Cincinnati 22, Memphis 5, Houston 2, UCF 1

The media did not select a preseason All-AAC team, so we are posting our own preseason team based on highest individual PiRate Ratings, the basic component for our PiRate and Bias team ratings and a key component of the Mean Rating.

Conference USA Preseason All-Conference Team
Offense	Player		School
Quarterback	Gunner Kiel		Cincinnati
Running Back	Marlon Mack		South Florida
Running Back	Kenneth Farrow		Houston
Wide Receiver	Keevan Lucas		Tulsa
Wide Receiver	Mekale McKay		Cincinnati
Tight End	Alan Cross		Memphis
Offensive Line	Kyle Friend		Temple
Offensive Line	J. T. Boyd		East Carolina
Offensive Line	Ike Harris		East Carolina
Offensive Line	Parker Ehringer		Cincinnati
Offensive Line	Garrett Stafford		Tulsa
Defense	Player		School
Defensive Line	Silverberry Mouhon		Cincinnati
Defensive Line	Thomas Niles		Central Florida
Defensive Line	Praise Martin-Oguike		Temple
Defensive Line	Royce Lafrance		Tulane
Linebacker	Tyler Matakevich		Temple
Linebacker	Zeek Bigger		East Carolina
Linebacker	Nigel Harris		South Florida
Defensive Back	William Jackson		Houston
Defensive Back	Adrian McDonald		Houston
Defensive Back	Josh Hawkins		East Carolina
Defensive Back	Zach Edwards		Cincinnati
Special Teams	Player		School
Punter	Spencer Smith		Memphis
Kicker	Jake Elliott		Memphis
Return Specialist	Shaq Washington		Cincinnati

Here are the preseason PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings and average of the three.

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Temple	103.5	106.6	104.5	104.9
Cincinnati	104.2	104.6	105.7	104.8
Central Florida	94.7	99.6	96.3	96.9
East Carolina	93.3	99.2	93.7	95.4
South Florida	86.0	93.9	85.8	88.6
Connecticut	79.3	85.9	79.1	81.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	101.3	101.6	102.6	101.8
Houston	94.2	102.6	96.8	97.9
Navy	96.8	99.6	96.8	97.7
Tulane	92.4	95.6	92.2	93.4
Tulsa	86.9	94.1	88.1	89.7
SMU	84.1	89.8	83.2	85.7
AAC Averages	93.1	97.8	93.7	94.9

And, here are our won-loss predictions and bowl projections.

PiRate Ratings Predicted Records
Pos	Team	Conf.	Overall	Bowl
East Division
1	Cincinnati	7-1	10-3 *	Birmingham
2	Temple	6-2	8-4	Military
3	Central Florida	5-3	7-5	Miami Beach
4	East Carolina	5-3	6-6	St. Petersburg
5	South Florida	2-6	3-9	None
6	Connecticut	0-8	2-10	None
West Division
1	Memphis	7-1	10-3 ^	Cure
2	Navy	6-2	9-3	Boca Raton
3	Houston	5-3	8-4	Hawaii
4	Tulane	4-4	6-6	At-Large
5	Tulsa	1-7	3-9	None
6	SMU	0-8	2-10	None
*	Wins Title Game
^	Loses Title Game

Coming Later Today: The FBS Independents (what’s left of them).

 

Bracketnomics 2013: NCAA Tournament: Saturday, March 23, Third Round

 2013 NCAA Tournament— Round Three Schedule For Saturday, March 23, 2013

All times Eastern Daylight

Time	Network			Region				Higher Seed						Lower Seed
12:15 PM	CBS			South				#4 Michigan (27-7)						#5 Virginia Commonwealth (27-8)
2:45 PM	CBS			Midwest				#3 Michigan St. (26-8)						#6 Memphis (31-4)
5:15 PM	CBS			Midwest				#1 Louisville (30-5)						#8 Colorado St. (26-8)
6:10 PM	TNT			West				#6 Arizona (26-7)						#14 Harvard (20-9)
7:10 PM	TBS			Midwest				#4 St. Louis (28-6)						#12 Oregon (27-8)
7:45 PM	CBS			East				#3 Marquette (24-8)						#6 Butler (27-8)
8:40 PM	TNT			West				#1 Gonzaga (32-2)						#9 Wichita St. (27-8)
9:40 PM	TBS			East				#4 Syracuse (27-9)						#12 California (21-11)
Team		PPG	Opp		Diff	FG%	Def FG%		Diff	Reb	Opp	Diff	TO		Opp TO	Diff	Stl	R+T	SOS	Rd  W-L
Michigan		75.2	62.9		12.3	.484	.419		6.5	35.1	32.2	2.9	9.2		12.1	2.9	6.0	7.58	56.00	60.0
V C U		77.3	64.8		12.5	.449	.444		0.5	34.8	34.8	0.0	11.8		19.9	8.1	11.8	12.08	55.72	64.7
Michigan St.		68.2	59.3		8.9	.460	.394		6.6	37.3	30.5	6.8	13.4		12.8	-0.6	8.1	7.70	59.69	53.3
Memphis		75.9	65.1		10.8	.479	.405		7.4	37.8	32.9	4.9	14.6		15.5	0.9	9.0	7.78	54.81	81.3
Louisville		73.6	58.0		15.6	.445	.388		5.7	37.5	33.9	3.6	12.7		18.7	6.0	10.7	12.94	59.42	77.8
Colorado St.		73.1	62.9		10.2	.448	.409		3.9	40.4	28.4	12.0	10.8		11.1	0.3	4.9	13.34	56.44	56.3
Arizona		73.3	63.7		9.6	.450	.415		3.5	36.2	30.3	5.9	13.1		13.8	0.7	6.9	8.12	57.27	68.8
Harvard		68.9	63.9		5.0	.482	.440		4.2	29.4	30.4	-1.0	13.5		13.8	0.3	7.4	0.84	48.79	42.9
St. Louis		68.7	58.1		10.6	.448	.412		3.6	32.8	32.5	0.3	11.5		15.2	3.7	7.5	6.24	55.73	69.2
Oregon		72.5	62.9		9.6	.451	.406		4.5	37.9	30.9	7.0	15.1		15.7	0.6	8.8	9.48	53.29	60.0
Marquette		69.0	62.7		6.3	.467	.405		6.2	35.0	30.6	4.4	13.6		12.9	-0.7	6.7	4.90	58.24	46.7
Butler		69.7	63.7		6.0	.455	.417		3.8	36.6	28.9	7.7	13.2		11.2	-2.0	5.7	6.44	56.61	70.6
Gonzaga		78.0	59.7		18.3	.503	.382		12.1	37.4	30.0	7.4	11.3		13.9	2.6	8.0	12.12	54.72	93.8
Wichita St.		69.4	60.7		8.7	.443	.400		4.3	38.4	30.0	8.4	12.8		13.2	0.4	7.5	10.38	53.84	64.7
Syracuse		71.3	60.1		11.2	.440	.377		6.3	38.7	34.6	4.1	12.6		15.5	2.9	8.9	9.36	59.30	56.3
California		67.5	64.4		3.1	.446	.396		5.0	37.2	34.0	3.2	12.5		11.1	-1.4	5.8	2.68	56.35	60.0

 

Thursday’s Pick Record: 12 – 4.

 

Game Previews

Michigan vs. Virginia Commonwealth

Michigan has a decided shooting edge in this game, and the Wolverines should win the rebound battle, but the key here will be how much they control the boards.  VCU’s pressing defense is called “Havoc” for a reason.  The Rams can get 10 steals on just about any team in this tournament, because players do not have the fundamentals mastered in this era.  If Michigan cannot win the rebounding battle by at least five and maybe as much as eight, VCU will create enough turnovers and score enough in transition to erase Michigan’s shooting advantage.  The Maize and Blue may be the best team VCU’s press has tried to upset this year, and Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr. are much better than the average pair of ball-handlers.

 

Like most of Saturday’s games, this one will be an excellent game to watch, and it should be nip and tuck all the way.  We grade these teams three ways to come up with our PiRate Number.  Michigan has a slight edge in one rating, while VCU has an equally slim edge in the second rating.  VCU qualifies in four of our rating criteria categories, while Michigan qualifies in three.  However, Michigan qualifies in the all-important strength of schedule, while the Rams do not.

 

VCU fails to qualify on SOS by the thinnest of hairs, and when we compare the two teams’ SOS side-by-side, they are separated by less than a point per game.

 

PiRate Pick: Virginia Commonwealth 74  Michigan 70

 

Michigan St. vs. Memphis

This is another game where the teams match up well with enough strengths with which to exploit the other and enough liabilities that can be exploited.  MichiganState is a tad slow in transition, while Memphis is considerably quicker.  The Spartans are stronger in the paint, while their guards are better outside shooters than the Tigers’ guards.

 

We think the difference in this game will come in shot selection.  In the second half, we expect MichiganState to take the smarter shots, while Memphis throws up some ill-advised shots.  It will be the difference down the stretch as Sparty pulls away at the end.

 

PiRate Pick: Michigan State 68  Memphis 61

 

Louisville vs. Colorado St.

The Rams might have a decent shot at ousting any of the other three number one seeds, but they unfortunately draw the one number one seed that they do not match up well against.  Louisville is a much better version of New Mexico, and CSU could not handle New Mexico.

 

The Cardinals have the best defensive backcourt in the tournament, even better than VCU’s Havoc Defense.  Not only can UL steal the ball 10 times a game, they also can stop teams in the paint and on the perimeter in the halfcourt.  Coach Rick Pitino may have his best team since his 1996 Kentucky Wildcats, and “The Ville,” looks to be unstoppable at this point.

 

ColoradoState may keep it close for one or two TV timeouts, but the Cardinals will pull away and have a double-digit lead before halftime.  CSU is not the best come-from-behind team, and things will only get worse until Pitino removes his starters.

 

PiRate Pick: Louisville 77  Colorado St. 54

 

Arizona vs. Harvard

If you read our previous post, you know we selected the 6-seeded Wildcats to emerge as the surprise winner of the West Region.  We’ve been given a gift in this round, as Sean Miller’s squad almost gets a walkover to advance to the Sweet 16.

 

Harvard is the first team that failed to qualify in any of our criteria categories to advance to the Round of 32 in six seasons.  We do not expect the Crimson to put up much of a fight in this game.

 

Arizona will get about 10-12 more chances to score points in this game, and the Wildcats should match or exceed Harvard in shooting percentage.  UA’s quickness should prevent the Crimson from getting many open looks from behind the arc, which is the only area where Harvard has a chance to stay in the game.

 

PiRate Pick: Arizona 71  Harvard 52

 

St. Louis vs. Oregon

We think this will be a dandy of a game to watch.  Aside from being just plain solid, SLU is playing for their deceased head coach, Rick Majerus.  While this emotional boost of octane does not figure in our PiRate Criteria, we do keep this knowledge in the back of our heads.

 

OU has an axe to grind that equalizes the Billikens’ extra emotion.  The Ducks felt as if they were seeded about five spots lower than they deserved to be seeded.  So these factors cancel each other out.

 

Let’s look at the Criteria numbers for this game.  Oregon should end up with a better shooting percentage, and the Ducks should win the battle of the boards, but not by a large number.  The SLU players are a better ball-control team, but they won’t remind anybody of conference rival VCU.

 

Oregon has a small R+T advantage, while SLU has played a slightly more difficult schedule and has performed better away from home.  The fact that this game is in San Jose does not help the Ducks as much as it would if this were the previous round, but SLU will have been on the coast for four days and will have adjusted by the time this game tips off.

 

Both teams have exceptional depth and balance, and this game should have a fluidity that others do not.  It would not surprise us if neither team ever enjoys a lead of more than eight points.  It would also not surprise us if 40 minutes is not enough to determine the winner.

 

PiRate Pick: Oregon 72  St. Louis 70

 

Marquette vs. Butler

This game could have just as easily been Davidson versus Bucknell.  Marquette survived an advanced because Davidson panicked at the end.  Bucknell had Butler on the ropes, but the Bulldogs showed poise when it counted.  The more experienced teams emerged victorious.

 

Now, in this round, we need to closely examine the numbers, because both teams are solid with savvy.  Marquette is a slightly better shooting team than Butler, and the Golden Eagles are also a little better affecting shots by the opponent.   Butler is considerably better on the glass, while neither team is much of a ball-hawking power.  Butler will get three to five more chances to score, but Marquette will shoot a higher percentage.

 

Looking at the other criteria, Marquette compiled their stats against competition that was a little less than two points per game better than Butler’s opponents, but Butler performed much better away from Indianapolis than MU did away from Milwaukee.  This stat is the deciding factor for us, and we believe Coach Brad Stevens will have his squad a little better prepared on less than 48 hours notice.

 

PiRate Pick: Butler 59  Marquette 55

 

Gonzaga vs. Wichita St.

The number one seed and regular final season number one team almost fell to a 16-seed.  The last time the overall number one team and top seed in a region lost their first game was way back in 1981, when #1-seed DePaul lost to #9-seed St. Joseph’s (40-team tournament in 1981).

 

WichitaState looked like a Sweet 16 team in their win over Pittsburgh.  The Shockers have their best team since the great 1981 team that advanced to the Elite 8.  That team had three future NBA players in Cliff Levengston, Antoine Carr, and Xavier McDaniel.

 

Of course, this is Gonzaga’s best team, and the Bulldogs have been toughened by their narrow escape.  We do not see Coach Mark Few’s team stubbing its toe and coming out flat in this game.  GU has something to prove.

 

The Zags are a better shooting team and a better defending team in the half-court.  The two teams are fairly even on the boards, while Gonzaga enjoys a slight advantage in turnover margin.  The two teams’ strengths of schedule differ minutely, but Gonzaga enjoys a considerably better record away from Spokane than WSU has away from Wichita.

 

PiRate Pick: Gonzaga 78  Wichita State 69

 

Syracuse vs. California

The Golden Bears get a little bit of home court advantage, as Berkeley is only 45 miles north of San Jose.  Still, the ‘Cuse is clearly the better team.

 

A lot of teams have trouble with Coach Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 matchup zone the first time they face it.  We believe the Bears will shoot under 40% in this game and fail to pick up enough offensive rebounds to keep the game within reach at the end.

 

Syracuse enjoys small, but significant advantages in field goal percentage margin and rebound margin.  The difference is more significant in turnover margin, and this leads to SU enjoying an R+T rating that is worth 6 ½ more possessions.  To top it off, The Orangemen’s strength of schedule is about three points per game better than Cal’s.  This adds up to a solid win for Boeheim’s bunch.

 

PiRate Pick: Syracuse 69  California 57

 

Coming Saturday night, we will preview Sunday’s games.