Somehow, we left the last game of Week 3 on our weekly spreads. Since there’s still more than 48 hours until kickoff, and it’s a big rivalry game with an all of a sudden first place New York Giants team, here are the spreads for that game.
| Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
| N.Y. Giants | Dallas | -8.0 | -5.5 | -7.0 |
| Home | Visitor | Total | ||
| N.Y. Giants | Dallas | 42.5 |
| Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
| Tampa Bay | Kansas City | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Home | Visitor | Total |
| Tampa Bay | Kansas City | 58 |
Faux Pas Logies To Our Readers
We here at the PiRate Ratings have to apologize to our readers for two mistakes. The first one occurred last week, while the second one has been global.
Mistake #1: Three of you caught this and sent it to our attention. We goofed on the Arizona and New York Giants Game. If you saw our ratings, you probably noticed that the Giants should have been favored by 7.5, 3.2, and 4.4 points and not the Cardinals. We hope that did not cause anybody any ruin.
Mistake #2: Our PiRate Passer Rating that we talked about had to be refigured. One very astute reader—Robert in Boulder, Colorado, noticed from a past entry on our rating that we were using the AYPA stat found at Advanced NFL Stats and believing the acronym stood for “Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.” We made this mistake due to reading one of their great blog entries about Air Yards. Their AYPA is not Air Yards. So, we had to actually create this stat from multiple data, and it wasn’t easy.
Because of this oversight, we have had to tweak the formula a little to adjust the ratings so that the top passers will exceed 100. The new formula is now:
[ ( Air Yards Per Attempt * 8 ) – ( Interception % *11 ) + 105 ] * 0.8,
Air Yards Per Attempt is (Total Passing yards – Receiver Yards After Catch) / Pass Attempts
Interception % is (100 * Interceptions / Pass Attempts).
Here are the PiRate Passer Ratings After 4 weeks of the 2011 NFL season:
| Player |
Team |
AYPA |
Int % |
PiRate # |
| Curtis Painter |
IND |
3.8 |
0.00 |
108.3 |
| Aaron Rodgers |
G B |
4.9 |
1.42 |
102.7 |
| Kerry Collins |
IND |
4.2 |
1.02 |
102.1 |
| Sam Bradford |
STL |
3.6 |
0.66 |
101.3 |
| Alex Smith |
S F |
3.8 |
0.93 |
100.0 |
| Eli Manning |
NYG |
4.7 |
1.61 |
99.8 |
| Michael Vick |
PHI |
4.5 |
2.33 |
92.2 |
| Tom Brady |
N E |
5.3 |
3.07 |
90.9 |
| Matt Hasselbeck |
TEN |
4.2 |
2.27 |
90.8 |
| Donovan McNabb |
MIN |
3.4 |
1.80 |
90.1 |
| Drew Brees |
N O |
4.1 |
2.30 |
90.1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick |
BUF |
3.8 |
2.07 |
90.0 |
| Matt Stafford |
DET |
3.5 |
1.86 |
89.8 |
| Matt Schaub |
HOU |
4.5 |
2.65 |
89.1 |
| Cam Newton |
CAR |
5.0 |
3.07 |
88.9 |
| Jason Campbell |
OAK |
4.1 |
2.48 |
88.3 |
| Josh Freeman |
T B |
4.4 |
2.76 |
87.6 |
| Matt Ryan |
ATL |
3.9 |
2.44 |
87.2 |
| Colt McCoy |
CLE |
2.9 |
1.74 |
87.0 |
| Joe Flacco |
BAL |
3.2 |
2.14 |
85.4 |
| Kevin Kolb |
ARI |
4.2 |
3.08 |
83.6 |
| Ben Roethlisberger |
PIT |
4.8 |
3.62 |
83.0 |
| Andy Dalton |
CIN |
4.1 |
3.23 |
82.0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson |
SEA |
3.7 |
2.96 |
81.5 |
| Tony Romo |
DAL |
3.9 |
3.29 |
80.2 |
| Chad Henne |
MIA |
4.2 |
3.57 |
79.5 |
| Rex Grossman |
WAS |
3.8 |
3.50 |
77.5 |
| Jay Cutler |
CHI |
3.1 |
3.05 |
77.0 |
| Mark Sanchez |
NYJ |
3.6 |
3.42 |
77.0 |
| Blaine Gabbert |
JAX |
2.3 |
2.90 |
73.0 |
| Kyle Orton |
DEN |
3.9 |
4.23 |
71.5 |
| Phillip Rivers |
S D |
3.2 |
3.82 |
71.0 |
| Matt Cassel |
K C |
3.4 |
4.50 |
66.4 |
| Luke McCown |
JAX |
2.5 |
9.30 |
18.4 |
As you will note, Curtis Painter is currently in the lead, but that will change as soon as he throws an interception. Had he thrown just one interception in his limited time, his rating would have dropped to 21st place on this list. That is why we like to wait until most QBs have thrown 100 passes before releasing this rating.
Here are this week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings by Division:
| NFC East |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| New York Giants |
105.3 |
101.8 |
102.8 |
3 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
102 |
87 |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
101.7 |
100.4 |
100.6 |
2 |
1 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
101 |
101 |
| Dallas Cowboys |
101.3 |
102.3 |
101.2 |
2.5 |
2 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
99 |
101 |
| Washington Redskins |
97.1 |
99.2 |
100.9 |
2.5 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
83 |
63 |
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| NFC North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| Green Bay Packers |
109.9 |
109.1 |
109.2 |
3.5 |
4 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
148 |
97 |
| Detroit Lions |
104.8 |
105.5 |
106.8 |
4 |
4 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
135 |
76 |
| Chicago Bears |
100.7 |
100.4 |
102.8 |
2 |
3 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
94 |
98 |
| Minnesota Vikings |
96.7 |
96.4 |
92.8 |
2.5 |
0 |
– |
4 |
– |
0 |
77 |
96 |
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| NFC South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| New Orleans Saints |
109.1 |
106.0 |
106.0 |
3 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
127 |
98 |
| Atlanta Falcons |
102.9 |
100.2 |
102.6 |
2 |
2 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
90 |
105 |
| Tampa Bay Bucaneers |
99.4 |
98.7 |
100.4 |
2.5 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
84 |
77 |
| Carolina Panthers |
93.5 |
95.0 |
97.6 |
2 |
1 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
89 |
102 |
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| NFC West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| San Francisco 49ers |
98.8 |
100.0 |
100.9 |
3.5 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
94 |
75 |
| Arizona Cardinals |
94.9 |
96.6 |
95.9 |
3 |
1 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
86 |
87 |
| Seattle Seahawks |
91.7 |
93.3 |
92.1 |
3 |
1 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
58 |
97 |
| St. Louis Rams |
91.6 |
91.2 |
88.9 |
1 |
0 |
– |
4 |
– |
0 |
46 |
113 |
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| AFC East |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| New England Patriots |
108.3 |
107.1 |
105.9 |
4 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
135 |
98 |
| New York Jets |
102.3 |
103.6 |
101.5 |
3.5 |
2 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
100 |
95 |
| Buffalo Bills |
98.8 |
102.6 |
104.7 |
3.5 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
133 |
96 |
| Miami Dolphins |
97.7 |
95.8 |
94.1 |
0.5 |
0 |
– |
4 |
– |
0 |
69 |
104 |
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| AFC North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| Baltimore Ravens |
109.3 |
108.7 |
107.4 |
4 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
119 |
57 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
106.1 |
103.2 |
100.1 |
4 |
2 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
64 |
72 |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
96.0 |
99.6 |
100.1 |
2 |
2 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
80 |
74 |
| Cleveland Browns |
93.6 |
95.3 |
96.3 |
2 |
2 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
74 |
93 |
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| AFC South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| Houston Texans |
106.5 |
104.2 |
107.1 |
3.5 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
107 |
70 |
| Tennessee Titans |
101.8 |
102.2 |
104.9 |
3.5 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
88 |
56 |
| Indianapolis Colts |
96.5 |
95.5 |
92.3 |
2 |
0 |
– |
4 |
– |
0 |
63 |
108 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
93.7 |
95.0 |
94.0 |
2.5 |
1 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
39 |
85 |
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| AFC West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| San Diego Chargers |
103.6 |
100.8 |
100.2 |
3.5 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
91 |
85 |
| Oakland Raiders |
98.8 |
100.8 |
100.1 |
2.5 |
2 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
111 |
113 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
96.1 |
93.5 |
92.4 |
2 |
1 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
49 |
126 |
| Denver Broncos |
92.1 |
96.2 |
97.1 |
1.5 |
1 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
81 |
111 |
Here are the PiRate, Mean, and Bias spreads for this week’s games.
|
This Week’s Games |
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| Home Team in CAPS |
(N) Denotes Neutral Site |
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Week 5: October 9-10, 2011 |
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| Vegas Line as of Tuesday, October 4 @ 8:30 AM EDT |
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| Favorite | Underdog |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Vegas |
Totals |
| INDIANAPOLIS | Kansas City |
2.4 |
4.0 |
1.9 |
2 |
38 |
| MINNESOTA | Arizona |
4.3 |
2.3 |
-0.6 |
2 1/2 |
44 1/2 |
| BUFFALO | Philadelphia |
0.6 |
5.7 |
7.6 |
-3 |
49 1/2 |
| HOUSTON | Oakland |
11.2 |
6.9 |
10.5 |
6 |
49 |
| New Orleans | CAROLINA |
13.6 |
9.0 |
6.4 |
6 |
52 1/2 |
| JACKSONVILLE | Cincinnati |
0.2 |
-2.1 |
-3.6 |
-2 1/2 |
37 |
| PITTSBURGH | Tennessee |
8.3 |
5.0 |
-0.8 |
8 |
NL |
| NEW YORK GIANTS | Seattle |
16.6 |
11.5 |
13.7 |
10 |
41 1/2 |
| SAN FRANCISCO | Tampa Bay |
2.9 |
4.8 |
4.0 |
1 |
41 |
| NEW ENGLAND | New York Jets |
10.0 |
7.5 |
8.4 |
9 1/2 |
49 |
| San Diego | DENVER |
10.0 |
3.1 |
1.6 |
4 |
47 1/2 |
| Green Bay | ATLANTA |
5.0 |
6.9 |
4.6 |
5 1/2 |
54 |
| DETROIT | Chicago |
8.1 |
9.1 |
8.0 |
6 |
47 1/2 |
Baltimore, Cleveland, Dallas, Miami, St. Louis, and Washington have byes this week.
An Interesting Phenomenon
After three games of the 2011 NFL season, in each of the eight divisions, a team that did not make the playoffs last year is either leading or tied for the lead. In the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills own sole possession of first place. The Cleveland Browns are in a tie for first in the AFC North. Tennessee and Houston are tied for the lead in the AFC South, and Oakland and Kansas City are tied for first in the AFC West.
In the NFC East, the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys are in a tie for first. Detroit is tied for first in the NFC North, while Tampa Bay is tied for first in the AFC South. San Francisco leads the NFC West.
The only teams that made the playoffs last year to be tied for the lead in their division are Baltimore, Green Bay, and New Orleans.
PiRate QB Passer Formula Returns Next Week
Beginning next week, we will once again carry the PiRate Passer Ratings for the NFL quarterbacks.
The official NFL Passer Rating is out-dated. There are several different sabermetric methods to judge passer efficiency these days, and most of these new versions put the official version to shame.
Here is the official version the NFL uses:
I. (Completion Percentage-30.0) * 0.05 +
II. (Yards per attempt-3.0) * 0.25 +
III. (20 * touchdowns per pass attempt) +
IV. 2.375 – (25 * interceptions per pass attempt)
If any of these four components are greater than 2.375, then cap the value at 2.375
Add these four stats together and multiple them by 16.667 to get the passer rating. For example, let’s look at Aaron Rodgers to date.
Here are his stats.
Completion Percentage 71.84
Yards Per Attempt 8.9
TDs Per Attempt .078
INTs Per Attempt .01
(71.84-30.0)*.05 = 2.092
(8.9-3.0)*.25 = 1.475
.078*20 = 1.560
(2.375-(25*.01)) = 2.125
(2.092+1.475+1.560+2.125)*16.667=120.9
Once you know this formula, you can easily plug it into a spreadsheet and figure the ratings. However, these ratings are a poor way to select the most efficient passer.
Let’s take a look at two opposing passers, Smith and Jones.
Smith completes 15 of 24 passes for 3 touchdowns with no interceptions.
Jones completes 10 of 24 passes for 0 touchdowns and 1 interception.
Smith is obviously much better, correct? No, not correct. It depends on several other things. What if Jones has a lousy offensive line or receivers that drop every other pass thrown to them? What if Smith has all day to pass with Jerry Rice-type receivers? All these stats show us are just that—their stats.
Smith could have completed six passes to backs behind the line of scrimmage with the backs following blocking for long gains. Jones could have threaded the needle with 30 yard passes to the deep sidelines only to have had them dropped by inept receivers.
In essence no pass-rating formula is worth a grain of salt. Let’s look at two separate plays. Passer A completes a 13-yard pass for a touchdown. It is a dump pass into the flat to the tailback with the tailback avoiding three defenders as he streaks into the end zone. This one pass gets the NFL Maximum rating of 158.3.
Now, let’s look at Passer B. His team is backed up at their own 1 inch line. He drops back and fires a bomb 55 yards through the air that comes down perfectly in the hands of his flanker. The flanker takes off down the sideline and is knocked out just one inch away from scoring. This 98-yard pass gives Passer B a rating of 118.8, which is 2.1 points less than Aaron Rodgers’ current rating! Rodgers is not worth more than a 98-yard completion every time he throws a pass.
Can this be? You betcha! The rating is flawed. Obviously the brilliantly thrown pass that travelled 55 yards past the line of scrimmage that comes down perfectly in the hands of the intended receiver should be worth a lot more than the dump pass that I could complete given two seconds of protection.
Here is where the PiRate Pass Rating Formula tries to correct the incorrect values of the NFL Pass Rating Formula.
Our formula looks at just two statistics. The first is interception percentage. An intercepted pass is worth anywhere from 3 to 7 points for the other team on average. We realize that all interceptions are not the same. A poorly thrown pass into the flat at the offense’s 20-yard line hurts much more than a 3rd and 25 pass thrown 40 yards downfield and intercepted by the defense.
The second stat is called “Air Yards Per Attempt,” or AYPA. It is simply the passing yardage minus the yards after catch. If Passer A completes a 51-yard pass for a touchdown, but the play consists of a pass completed to a tailback one yard past the line of scrimmage with that back running for 50 yards, the passer gets credit for an AYPA of 1 yard (51 yard pass – 50 yards after the catch).
Here is the PiRate Pass Rating Formula:
[AYPA * 7 – (11 * Interception %) + 105] * 0.8
Interception percentage is figured as: (Interceptions/Attempts) *100
Anything over 100 is an excellent rating. Over 90 means the QB is above average. 80 would be considered average; below 80 means this QB should be looking over his shoulder for a replacement to take his job.
In our passer rating, we don’t include passing percentage or touchdown passes. Yards gained are what matters. Three consecutive completed passes that gain a total of nine yards means 4th & 1. Two incomplete passes followed by an 11 yard completion means 1st & 10. Which outcome is better?
Touchdowns skew the ratings. If one coach sends in passing plays at the opponents’ one yard line, while another sends his 240-pound power back to plunge over the goal, the quarterbacks will get too much credit in once instance and no credit in the other.
Let’s take a look at the PiRate Rating in action. First, you must be wondering where can you find AYPA? There is an excellent website that carries this stat, so you don’t have to try to figure out the YAC for each QB. Go to: www.advancednflstats.com.
For this example, we will compare two quarterbacks, Eli Manning and Tony Romo. Manning has the better official NFL passer rating, leading Romo 104.3 to 95.8.
Here are the components for the PiRate Passer Ratings.
Manning: AYPA = 6.0 Int% = 2.35
Romo: AYPA = 7.4 Int% = 1.90
Manning = [6.0 * 7 – (11 * 2.35) + 105] * .8 =96.9
Romo = [7.4 * 7 – (11*1.90) + 105] * .8 = 108.7
According to our formula, Romo has been the better passer after three weeks of the 2011 season.
This Week’s NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings
| NFC East |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
| New York Giants |
105.6 |
102.3 |
103.2 |
3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
104.0 |
101.0 |
101.4 |
2 |
| Dallas Cowboys |
101.7 |
102.1 |
102.4 |
3 |
| Washington Redskins |
96.7 |
99.5 |
100.9 |
2.5 |
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| NFC North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
| Green Bay Packers |
107.9 |
108.2 |
109.0 |
3 |
| Detroit Lions |
104.4 |
103.6 |
103.8 |
4 |
| Chicago Bears |
101.3 |
101.0 |
102.2 |
2.5 |
| Minnesota Vikings |
98.0 |
98.5 |
96.2 |
2.5 |
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| NFC South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
| New Orleans Saints |
108.9 |
105.6 |
105.5 |
3 |
| Atlanta Falcons |
103.6 |
100.7 |
102.4 |
2 |
| Tampa Bay Bucaneers |
98.9 |
100.3 |
99.7 |
2.5 |
| Carolina Panthers |
92.9 |
95.3 |
97.2 |
2 |
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| NFC West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
| San Francisco 49ers |
96.5 |
100.1 |
100.0 |
3.5 |
| Arizona Cardinals |
94.6 |
95.6 |
95.3 |
3.5 |
| St. Louis Rams |
92.0 |
90.9 |
89.2 |
1.5 |
| Seattle Seahawks |
91.0 |
92.7 |
91.8 |
3.5 |
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| AFC East |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
| New England Patriots |
107.7 |
108.1 |
106.4 |
4 |
| New York Jets |
104.6 |
105.0 |
103.9 |
3.5 |
| Buffalo Bills |
100.0 |
101.9 |
105.4 |
3.5 |
| Miami Dolphins |
97.8 |
97.1 |
97.2 |
0.5 |
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| AFC North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
| Baltimore Ravens |
107.0 |
107.3 |
105.7 |
4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
106.9 |
103.8 |
102.3 |
4 |
| Cleveland Browns |
96.3 |
96.3 |
97.5 |
2.5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
94.8 |
97.1 |
99.4 |
2 |
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| AFC South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
| Houston Texans |
105.7 |
104.1 |
104.2 |
3 |
| Tennessee Titans |
99.1 |
100.6 |
100.4 |
3.5 |
| Indianapolis Colts |
97.0 |
95.4 |
92.9 |
2 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
93.9 |
94.6 |
93.4 |
2.5 |
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| AFC West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
| San Diego Chargers |
103.5 |
100.3 |
99.9 |
3.5 |
| Oakland Raiders |
99.4 |
101.6 |
102.5 |
3 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
94.8 |
92.7 |
92.0 |
1.5 |
| Denver Broncos |
94.1 |
96.3 |
96.8 |
1.5 |
Here are this week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads.
|
This Week’s Games |
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| Home Team in CAPS |
(n) Denotes Neutral Site |
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| Week 4: October 2-3, 2011 |
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| Vegas Line as of: Tuesday, September 27, 2011 8:30 AM EDT |
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| Favorite | Underdog |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Vegas |
Totals |
| DALLAS | Detroit |
0.3 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
3 |
47 1/2 |
| New Orleans | JACKSONVILLE |
12.5 |
8.5 |
9.6 |
7 |
46 1/2 |
| PHILADELPHIA | San Francisco |
9.5 |
2.9 |
3.4 |
6 |
41 1/2 |
| Washington | ST. LOUIS |
3.2 |
7.1 |
10.2 |
Pk |
44 1/2 |
| Tennessee | CLEVELAND |
0.3 |
1.8 |
0.4 |
-1 1/2 |
38 |
| Buffalo | CINCINNATI |
3.2 |
2.8 |
4.0 |
3 |
44 |
| Minnesota | KANSAS CITY |
1.7 |
4.3 |
2.7 |
1 |
40 |
| CHICAGO | Carolina |
10.9 |
8.2 |
7.5 |
6 1/2 |
44 |
| HOUSTON | Pittsburgh |
1.8 |
3.3 |
4.9 |
4 |
45 |
| Atlanta | SEATTLE |
9.1 |
4.5 |
7.1 |
4 1/2 |
41 1/2 |
| ARIZONA | New York Giants |
7.5 |
3.2 |
4.4 |
-1 |
45 |
| SAN DIEGO | Miami |
9.2 |
6.7 |
6.2 |
7 1/2 |
45 1/2 |
| GREEN BAY | Denver |
16.8 |
14.9 |
15.2 |
13 |
47 1/2 |
| New England | OAKLAND |
5.3 |
3.5 |
0.9 |
4 1/2 |
53 1/2 |
| BALTIMORE | New York Jets |
3.3 |
6.3 |
5.8 |
3 1/2 |
40 1/2 |
| TAMPA BAY | Indianapolis |
4.4 |
7.4 |
9.3 |
10 |
41 1/2 |
Rookie Quarterbacks Need Time To Get Used To The Speed Of The Game
We wonder just how good Cam Newton is going to be when he becomes a seasoned veteran. If while he is breaking in to the speed of the league, he averages more than 400 passing yards per game, will he soon be threatening the 6,000 passing yard mark?
The way he has played in his first two games, he sure looks like he could become the first Heisman Trophy winner to earn the Rookie of the Year award in the NFL since Sam Bradford way back in 2010.
It’s time to put this myth to rest. Today’s college quarterbacks are as ready to step in and become stars in their first year in the NFL just as frequently as today’s running backs are ready. Andy Dalton looks like a veteran, and Blaine Gabbert should become the starter at Jacksonville very soon.
He’s Being Paid How Much Per Yard?
Titans’ running back Chris Johnson’s new contract averages out to $837,500 per game. Through two weeks of the 2011 season, he is averaging a grand total of 38.5 rushing yards per game, or a little more than $21,750 per yard. A simple five yard gain could buy a nice house. A one yard gain is worth about the same as a Ford Fusion.
All kidding aside, the Titans should consider trying him as a wideout. Johnson has good hands, and lining up opposite Kenny Britt could give the Titans the next version of Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Bolden, or Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Add Nate Washington to the mix, and the Titans might have the top receiving trio outside of Foxboro, Massachusetts.
The AFC East
Could the AFC East provide three playoff teams in 2011-12? New England and the New York Jets appear to be lead pipe cinches to make the playoffs, but what about the Buffalo Bills? The Bills are off to a 2-0 start and a fourth place schedule to their advantage. We tend to believe that the runner-up in the AFC North will probably finish no worse than 10-6, so it is still a long shot. As of today, we cannot see any AFC South or West runner-up winning more than nine games.
The NFC West
Last year, Seattle won the NFC West with a 7-9 record. The Seahawks will be lucky to win four games this year, but they could still be in the race with four games to go. This division may provide another losing team to the playoffs this season. Arizona and San Francisco have played mediocre ball so far to open at 1-1, but neither team is a world-beater. This division plays the NFC East and AFC North, and the outlook is grim for the Cardinals, Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks. Could 6-10 actually earn a team a share of this division title? Ugh!
Offense Continues To Dominate
Through two weeks of the NFL schedule, the average offensive score for the 32 teams is 23.5. That is a field goal above the norm.
The average margin of victory is a gaudy 12.9 points per game, which is well above the average. This could be due to a small statistical sample, but it could also be an effect of the NFL Lockout. The teams with better talent and exceptional organizational skills are taking advantage of the lack of preseason preparation.
NFL PiRate Ratings For Week 3: September 25-26, 2011
| NFC East |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
1 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
62 |
48 |
106.2 |
104.8 |
106.5 |
| New York Giants |
1 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
42 |
44 |
103.4 |
100.8 |
102.5 |
| Dallas Cowboys |
1 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
51 |
51 |
101.9 |
102.4 |
102.0 |
| Washington Redskins |
2 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
50 |
35 |
96.5 |
98.5 |
101.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| NFC North |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| Green Bay Packers |
2 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
72 |
57 |
107.2 |
107.2 |
108.3 |
| Detroit Lions |
2 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
75 |
23 |
105.2 |
102.7 |
104.3 |
| Chicago Bears |
1 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
43 |
42 |
102.0 |
101.9 |
102.5 |
| Minnesota Vikings |
0 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
37 |
48 |
97.2 |
99.2 |
96.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| NFC South |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| New Orleans Saints |
1 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
64 |
55 |
108.8 |
105.0 |
105.8 |
| Atlanta Falcons |
1 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
47 |
61 |
104.1 |
101.4 |
103.9 |
| Tampa Bay Bucaneers |
1 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
44 |
47 |
98.4 |
99.7 |
99.6 |
| Carolina Panthers |
0 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
44 |
58 |
91.6 |
94.4 |
94.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| NFC West |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| San Francisco 49ers |
1 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
57 |
44 |
96.2 |
97.6 |
97.6 |
| St. Louis Rams |
0 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
29 |
59 |
95.2 |
93.2 |
93.5 |
| Arizona Cardinals |
1 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
49 |
43 |
94.9 |
95.2 |
96.2 |
| Seattle Seahawks |
0 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
17 |
57 |
90.7 |
92.2 |
88.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| AFC East |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| New England Patriots |
2 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
73 |
45 |
111.5 |
109.9 |
110.1 |
| New York Jets |
2 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
59 |
27 |
107.7 |
106.9 |
107.4 |
| Miami Dolphins |
0 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
37 |
61 |
98.2 |
97.9 |
95.8 |
| Buffalo Bills |
2 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
79 |
42 |
96.2 |
98.6 |
101.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| AFC North |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
1 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
31 |
35 |
107.4 |
104.7 |
104.6 |
| Baltimore Ravens |
1 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
48 |
33 |
103.8 |
105.9 |
105.7 |
| Cleveland Browns |
1 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
44 |
46 |
95.9 |
96.3 |
95.5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
1 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
49 |
41 |
95.1 |
97.6 |
96.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| AFC South |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| Houston Texans |
2 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
57 |
20 |
105.8 |
103.7 |
105.9 |
| Tennessee Titans |
1 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
40 |
29 |
99.8 |
101.2 |
98.8 |
| Indianapolis Colts |
0 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
26 |
61 |
96.5 |
97.2 |
93.3 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
1 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
19 |
46 |
95.2 |
95.7 |
96.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| AFC West |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| San Diego Chargers |
1 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
45 |
52 |
105.3 |
103.7 |
103.1 |
| Oakland Raiders |
1 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
58 |
58 |
96.3 |
98.4 |
99.6 |
| Denver Broncos |
1 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
44 |
45 |
93.4 |
94.9 |
95.1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
0 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
10 |
89 |
93.0 |
91.4 |
87.5 |
|
This Week’s Games |
||||||
| Home Team in CAPS |
(N) Denotes Neutral Site |
|||||
|
Week 3: September 25-26, 2011 |
||||||
|
Vegas Line as of: Tuesday, September 20, 2011 9:30 AM EDT |
||||||
| Favorite | Underdog |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Vegas |
Totals |
| CINCINNATI | San Francisco |
0.9 |
2.0 |
1.2 |
2 1/2 |
41 |
| New England | BUFFALO |
14.3 |
10.3 |
7.9 |
8 1/2 |
52 |
| NEW ORLEANS | Houston |
4.5 |
2.8 |
1.4 |
4 |
53 |
| PHILADELPHIA | New York Giants |
3.8 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
7 1/2 |
41 1/2 |
| Miami | CLEVELAND |
1.3 |
0.6 |
-0.7 |
-3 |
41 |
| TENNESSEE | Denver |
9.9 |
9.8 |
7.2 |
7 |
42 |
| Detroit | MINNESOTA |
8.0 |
3.5 |
8.0 |
3 1/2 |
44 1/2 |
| Jacksonville | CAROLINA |
2.1 |
-0.2 |
-0.4 |
-3 |
42 1/2 |
| SAN DIEGO | Kansas City |
15.8 |
15.8 |
19.1 |
14 1/2 |
45 |
| New York Jets | OAKLAND |
10.4 |
7.5 |
6.8 |
3 |
41 |
| Baltimore | ST. LOUIS |
7.1 |
11.2 |
10.7 |
4 1/2 |
42 |
| Atlanta | TAMPA BAY |
4.7 |
0.7 |
3.3 |
-1 1/2 |
45 1/2 |
| Arizona | SEATTLE |
0.7 |
-0.5 |
3.8 |
-3 |
42 |
| Green Bay | CHICAGO |
3.2 |
3.3 |
3.8 |
3 1/2 |
45 1/2 |
| Pittsburgh | INDIANAPOLIS |
9.4 |
6.0 |
9.8 |
10 1/2 |
39 1/2 |
| DALLAS | Washington |
5.9 |
4.4 |
1.1 |
6 1/2 |
45 |
The Pi-Rate Ratings