2015 AFC East Division Preview

Today, we begin our 2015 previews of each NFL division with a look at the AFC East Division. This year, we are going to concentrate mostly on stats and analytics.

You will see the following information in each preview.

1. A current starting lineup based on multiple sources.  This will include players that are questionable for Week 1, and players suspended in the first four weeks.
2. Team Information–Head Coach, Offensive and Defensive Coordinators, Last Year’s W-L Record and Average Offensive and Defensive Points Per Game
3. 2015 Preseason PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings with an Average of the Three.
4. Our PiRate Grades on Running Game, Passing Game, Defense Against the Run, Defense Against the Pass, Special Teams, and Coaching + Intangibles.  Note that these grades use advanced metrics and do not rely on regular statistics.  More about that in the footnote at the end of this entry.
5. The PiRate Ratings won-loss predictions for 2015 and whether the team is picked to make the playoffs.  These predictions are based on a unique set of data and do not strictly correlate to our preseason ratings.  We actually have pre-adjustments in our ratings based on factors such as depth, age, schedule, travel, etc.

AFC EAST

New England has won this division six consecutive seasons, and the last time they didn’t win, they lost in a tiebreaker to the Miami Dolphins.  With Tom Brady sidelined for four games, a lot of pundits are picking the Patriots to begin the season trailing one or more contenders.  We remind them that Matt Cassel took over a Patriot team in 2008 and went 10-5 as a starter.  Jimmy Garoppolo should be able to at least split those four games, which should allow the Pats to seven-peat in the AFC East.

Rex Ryan takes over at Buffalo, and the Bills have enough talent on hand to make a playoff run, something Bills’ fans have not experienced since the fateful “Music City Miracle” in 1999.  With the addition of Matt Cassel, LeSean McCoy and to a lesser extent, Percy Harvin and Richie Incognito, Ryan’s Bills could take on the persona of the Oakland Raiders of the 1960’s and 1970’s.

Miami added Ndamukong Suh and Greg Jennings to a roster that was 7-5 before fading fast last year.  The Dolphins will make the Playoffs this year, or Joe Philbin will be history.

The New York Jets start over with a new coach, a new quarterback they did not expect to have, two new cornerbacks, and a commitment to open up the offense.  However, in order for the Jets to get off the ground in 2015, unexpected new starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick must find a way to avoid the interception bug for at least 4 or 5 games, or else rookie Bryce Petty will be in the Big Apple microscope.

BUFFALO BILLS

Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Sammy Watkins
WR	Percy Harvin
WR	Robert Woods
TE	Charles Clay
LT	Gordy Glenn
LG	Richie Ingonito
C	Eric Wood
RG	John Miller
RT	Seantrel Henderson
QB	Matt Cassel
HB	LeSean McCoy
FB	Jerome Felton
Defense
DE	Mario Williams
DT	Marcell Dareus
DT	Kyle Williams
DE	Jerry Hughes
LB	Nigel Bradham
LB	Preston Brown
LB	Manny Lawson
CB	Leodis McKelvin
S	Aaron Williams
S	Corey Graham
CB	Stephon Gilmore
N5	Nickell Robey
Special
Kicker	Dan Carpenter
Punter	Colton Schmidt
KR	Percy Harvin
PR	Marcus Thigpen

Buffalo Bills
Head Coach	Rex Ryan
Off. Coordinator	Greg Roman
Def. Coordinator	Dennis Thurman
2014 W-L-T	9-7-0
Pts	21.4
Opp	18.1
Ratings
PiRate	99.8
Mean	100.6
Bias	99.6
Average	100.0
Grades
Running	B-
Passing	C-
Vs. Run	B+
Vs. Pass	B-
Special Teams	C
Coaching + Intangibles	C+
Predicted W-L	10-6-0
Division Rank	2
Conference Rank	9
Overall Rank	17
Postseason	Yes

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Greg Jennings
WR	Kenny Stills
WR	Jarvis Landry
TE	Jordan Cameron
LT	Albert Brandon
LG	Dallas Thomas
C	Mike Pouncey
RG	Billy Turner
RT	Ja’ Wuan James
QB	Ryan Tannehill
HB	Lamar Miller
FB	(None)
Defense
DE	Cameron Wake
DT	Ndamukong Suh
DT	Earl Mitchell
DE	Olivier Vernon
LB	Chris McCain
LB	Koa Misi
LB	Jelani Jenkins
CB	Brent Grimes
S	Reshad Jones
S	Michael Thomas
CB	Jamar Taylor
N5	Brice McCain
Special
Kicker	Caleb Sturgis
Punter	Brandon Fields
KR	Jarvis Landry
PR	Jarvis Landry

Miami Dolphins
Head Coach	Joe Philbin
Off. Coordinator	Bill Lazor
Def. Coordinator	Kevin Coyle
2014 W-L-T	8-8-0
Pts	24.3
Opp	23.3
Ratings
PiRate	98.7
Mean	100.3
Bias	98.0
Average	99.0
Grades
Running	C-
Passing	C+
Vs. Run	C
Vs. Pass	B
Special Teams	C-
Coaching + Intangibles	C
Predicted W-L	9-7-0
Division Rank	3
Conference Rank	10
Overall Rank	19
Postseason	No

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Reggie Wayne
WR	Julian Edelman
WR	Danny Amendola
TE	Rob Gronkowski
LT	Nate Solder
LG	Josh Klein
C	Bryan Stork
RG	Ryan Wendell
RT	Sebastian Vollmer
QB	Tom Brady
HB	LeGarrette Blount
FB	James Develin
Defense
DE	Rob Ninkovich
DT	Alan Branch
DT	Sealver Siliga
DE	Chandler Jones
LB	Jamie Collins
LB	Jerod Mayo
LB	Dont’a Hightower
CB	Malcolm Butler
S	Patrick Chung
S	Devon McCourty
CB	Logan Ryan
N5	Robert McClain
Special
Kicker	Stephen Gostkowski
Punter	Ryan Allen
KR	Danny Amendola
PR	Julian Edelman

New England Patriots
Head Coach	Bill Belichick
Off. Coordinator	Josh McDaniels
Def. Coordinator	Matt Patricia
2014 W-L-T	12-4-0
Pts	29.3
Opp	19.6
Ratings
PiRate	107.9
Mean	107.9
Bias	107.9
Average	107.9
Grades
Running	C-
Passing	A+
Vs. Run	C-
Vs. Pass	C
Special Teams	A
Coaching + Intangibles	A+
Predicted W-L	12-4-0
Division Rank	1
Conference Rank	1
Overall Rank	2
Postseason	No

NEW YORK JETS

Starting Lineups
Offense
WR	Brandon Marshall
WR	Eric Decker
WR	Jeremy Kerley
TE	Jeff Cumberland
LT	D’Brickashaw Ferguson
LG	James Carpenter
C	Nick Mangold
RG	Willie Colon
RT	Breno Giacomini
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick
HB	Chris Ivory
FB	Tommy Bohanon
Defense
DE	Muhammad Wilkerson
DT	Damon Harrison
DE	Leonard Williams
LB	Quinton Coples
LB	Demario Davis
LB	David Harris
LB	Calvin Pace
CB	Darrelle Revis
S	Calvin Pryor
S	Marcus Gilchrist
CB	Antonio Cromartie
N5	Buster Skrine
Special
Kicker	Nick Folk
Punter	Ryan Quigley
KR	Chris Owusu
PR	Jeremy Kerley

New York Jets
Head Coach	Todd Bowles
Off. Coordinator	Chan Gailey
Def. Coordinator	Kacy Rodgers
2014 W-L-T	4-12-0
Pts	17.7
Opp	25.1
Ratings
PiRate	97.7
Mean	98.2
Bias	97.5
Average	97.8
Grades
Running	C-
Passing	D
Vs. Run	A-
Vs. Pass	B+
Special Teams	C
Coaching + Intangibles	D
Predicted W-L	7-9-0
Division Rank	4
Conference Rank	12
Overall Rank	23
Postseason	No

Grade Constituents & Data

Running Game: Offensive Line & Running Backs

Mere average yards per carry or total yards gained matters little here.  We grade based on how effective the running game is.  So, if a player gained 1,200 yards and averaged 4.0 yards per carry last year, there is no guarantee that he is better than a player that gains 800 yards and averaged 3.5 yards per attempt.  Gaining three yards on third and two is a lot more important than gaining four yards on third and eight.  A player that gets a lot of attempts inside the two yard line will see his average yards per carry drop but will be more effective due to getting the job done.

Passing Game: Quarterback, Receivers, Backs, Offensive Line

We use a combination of average yards per attempt, air yards per attempt, yards after catch, sacks per attempt, and avoidance of turnovers.  A team with a better quarterback may have a lower grade than a team with less talented quarterback, if he has a better pass blocking offensive line and/or better receivers.

Defense: All 11 defensive players factor into both run and pass defense.  The defensive ends and cornerbacks count more against the pass than any other position, while the front seven counts more against the run than the secondary.

Special Teams: Punt and Kick Coverage count for a little more than punt and kick return, but with a little extra given weight to returners that have a proven history of becoming game-changers.  Actual punting and kicking have gotten to the point where there is not much difference between the best and worst.  If the top punter averages 46 yards per punt, and a replacement punter averages just 40 yards per punt, that six yards is not that much of a factor.  Coverage is much more important.  Not allowing the opponent to get a long return counts more than the six yards difference in the punters.

Coaching + Intangibles: The head coach is not the only coach that matters, but he counts more than the strength and conditioning coach.  We look at the entire coaching staff, with the coordinators receiving more consideration than all but the head coach.  Intangibles include a host of factors, including things like having a player break a teammate’s jaw, penalties from deflating balls, having a team that missed out of the playoffs by a tiebreaker last year, and many other little things.

PiRate Ratings–Pro Football Week Two: September 18-19, 2011

The lack of OTAs and minicamps affected the week one games more than most people realized.  The average total of the 16 games was 47.0, or about three points more than the 2010 average.  The difference appears almost infinitesimal at first look.  The Vegas Line totals for those 16 games averaged out to just 40.5, because the masses of bettors thought the opposite would be true, thinking that the offenses would not be ready; in Week One of 2010, the 16 games averaged a total of 36.6 points per game, or 10.1 points per game less than this year’s opening week games. 

 

We took advantage of the low totals to reduce them by another 13 points on sweetheart teasers, and it led to a profitable week—at least on paper, because we do not wager with Federal Reserve Notes. 

 

Injuries to quarterbacks made for huge swings in two games.  Without Peyton Manning, the Colts looked about as weak as they did in the latter years in Baltimore.  Matt Cassel played for the Chiefs, but the Bills quickly realized his rib injuries prevented him from throwing anything more than short passes.  They capitalized by stuffing the short zones, and most of his passes were thrown no more than five yards downfield.  For the day, he averaged just 3.3 yards per attempt.

 

Did you see the Oakland Raiders on Monday night?  Was that an old-fashioned full-house T formation being used a few times?  And, did the Broncos seem to have trouble defending the multiple faking in the backfield?  It makes you wonder what might happen if someone tried the single wing buck lateral.  Vince Lombardi once told reporters in the mid 1960’s that NFL defenses would be very embarrassed if someone tried running the single wing offense.

 

Since today’s defenses are geared to stop today’s offenses, if an offensive coordinator was brash enough to install a series from an old offense, like the full-house T or single wing, it just may prove to be lethal until all the other teams’ offensive coordinators began copying from it.

 

Tennessee’s Chris Johnson received 40-million dollars plus and rushed for 24 yards in the Titans’ first game.  Has anybody realized that Johnson’s best rushing games came with Vince Young at quarterback?  Could it be that defenses realize there is no way any QB other than Young is going to bootleg away from Johnson and run to daylight?  Kerry Collins was not about to take off last year, and once Collins replaced Young, Johnson’s rushing yardage took a nosedive.  Matt Hasselbeck will not be confused for Bobby Douglas, so without another running option in the backfield and with a weak passing game, expect the Titans’ offense to continue to fizzle.  Baltimore held Pittsburgh to seven points; they can pitch a shutout against Tennessee if they do not turn the ball over.

 

PiRate Ratings For Week Two—September 18-19, 2011

 

NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Philadelphia Eagles	1	–	0	–	0	31	13	107.0	105.4	108.3
New York Giants	0	–	1	–	0	14	28	102.9	100.9	99.4
Dallas Cowboys	0	–	1	–	0	24	27	101.6	102.0	103.0
Washington Redskins	1	–	0	–	0	28	14	96.7	99.0	98.4
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay Packers	1	–	0	–	0	42	34	107.6	108.0	109.6
Chicago Bears	1	–	0	–	0	30	12	104.8	103.5	105.1
Detroit Lions	1	–	0	–	0	27	20	100.9	100.1	101.8
Minnesota Vikings	0	–	1	–	0	17	24	97.4	100.3	94.6
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans Saints	0	–	1	–	0	34	42	105.9	103.4	105.3
Atlanta Falcons	0	–	1	–	0	12	30	103.3	101.2	103.8
Tampa Bay Bucaneers	0	–	1	–	0	20	27	98.2	98.6	97.4
Carolina Panthers	0	–	1	–	0	21	28	91.2	93.3	90.8
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco 49ers	1	–	0	–	0	33	17	96.5	97.7	99.3
St. Louis Rams	0	–	1	–	0	13	31	95.6	93.3	94.0
Arizona Cardinals	1	–	0	–	0	28	21	94.7	94.6	94.1
Seattle Seahawks	0	–	1	–	0	17	33	91.5	93.3	91.4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England Patriots	1	–	0	–	0	38	24	110.8	109.9	111.8
New York Jets	1	–	0	–	0	27	24	106.3	105.1	107.5
Miami Dolphins	0	–	1	–	0	24	38	99.0	98.7	100.6
Buffalo Bills	1	–	0	–	0	41	7	95.7	98.7	98.7
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Baltimore Ravens	1	–	0	–	0	35	7	107.6	108.1	109.0
Pittsburgh Steelers	0	–	1	–	0	7	35	106.5	104.1	103.2
Cincinnati Bengals	1	–	0	–	0	27	17	95.6	97.6	100.3
Cleveland Browns	0	–	1	–	0	17	27	93.3	94.6	93.2
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Houston Texans	1	–	0	–	0	34	7	105.0	103.2	103.9
Indianapolis Colts	0	–	1	–	0	7	34	99.6	99.0	96.6
Jacksonville Jaguars	1	–	0	–	0	16	14	96.5	97.2	96.2
Tennessee Titans	0	–	1	–	0	14	16	96.0	98.7	94.0
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego Chargers	1	–	0	–	0	24	17	106.0	104.4	106.7
Kansas City Chiefs	0	–	1	–	0	7	41	97.2	93.7	93.8
Oakland Raiders	1	–	0	–	0	23	20	96.8	98.0	96.4
Denver Broncos	0	–	1	–	0	20	23	92.9	94.5	91.9

 

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Picks—September 18-19, 2011

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 2: September 18-19, 2011
Vegas Line as of 1:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
NEW ORLEANS	Chicago	1.6	0.4	0.7	7	47
DETROIT	Kansas City	7.7	10.4	12.0	8	44 1/2
NEW YORK JETS	Jacksonville	12.3	10.4	13.8	9 1/2	38
Oakland	BUFFALO	0.1	-1.7	-3.3	4	41 1/2
WASHINGTON	Arizona	4.5	6.9	6.8	4 1/2	44
Baltimore	TENNESSEE	9.1	6.9	12.5	6	37 1/2
PITTSBURGH	Seattle	18.0	13.8	14.8	14 1/2	39 1/2
Green Bay	CAROLINA	15.4	13.7	17.8	10	46 1/2
Tampa Bay	MINNESOTA	0.8	-1.7	2.8	-3	40 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	Cleveland	7.8	5.9	4.9	-2 1/2	37 1/2
Dallas	SAN FRANCISCO	1.1	0.3	-0.3	-3	42 1/2
Houston	MIAMI	6.0	4.5	3.3	-3	47
NEW ENGLAND	San Diego	6.3	7.0	6.6	6 1/2	52 1/2
Cincinnati	DENVER	1.2	1.6	6.9	-4 1/2	40
Philadelphia	ATLANTA	2.2	2.7	3.0	2 1/2	49 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS	St. Louis	8.3	8.6	6.4	6	42

 

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 16–December 23-27, 2010

Merry Christmas to all of our PiRate readers.  We wanted to send all of you a gift this year, but we didn’t have enough boxes here on the PiRate Ship. So, instead, we are going to issue a communal gift today. 2010 has been a very successful season for our picks, and our subscribers have pocketed a lot of PiRate booty thanks to a 69% record against the spread. We realize that several readers to this blog are not subscribers and thus can only see our picks from the previous week after the fact. For instance, we made just one selection last week.  It was a 3-game, 10-point teaser parlay, and it won.  We issued to our subscribers last week a bowl pick.  We took the three favorites (BYU, Northern Illinois, and Troy) and moved the spread by 10 points in our favor, making BYU a 2-point favorite, NIU a 9-point ‘dog, and Troy a 7-point ‘dog.  All three won outright and covered, making this a winning selection. We are only playing one 13-point teaser this week as our official pick, but we had two good picks to select from.  We always make an odd number of selections, because if we play an even amount and win half, it is a losing proposition. We are issuing our top choice to our subscribers, and they will receive this pick Thursday afternoon.  Today, we would like to issue our second choice pick to all of you as our gift.  We hope it is a winning one.  Additionally, we will show you a little behind our strategy. Here it is: We are going with a 4-game, 13-point teaser.  For those not familiar with this type of selection, you get to move the pointspreads 13 points in either direction, but you must win four different games.  If all four games win, you win the parlay.  If anything else happens, including three wins and a push, you lose. There are two key statistics to look at when playing a 13-point teaser.  Number one, you need to let the numbers play in your favor by picking a game that might give you an extra point or two.  Let’s say a team is a ½-point underdog.  If you like the underdog to cover, then you get them at 13 ½ points.  That is not in your favor.  Winning teams often win games by 14 points.   Now, let’s take another team that is a 4 ½-point underdog.  Adding 13 points in their favor makes them a 17 ½-point underdog.  Many games are decided by 17 points, while many fewer are decided by 18. Another key point is to take a favorite that you feel has a great chance to win and move the spread to make them an underdog.  A 5 ½-point favorite becomes a 7 ½-point underdog. Another great way to play teasers is to look at totals.  If the total for a game is 36 points, moving it 13 points lower and playing the OVER means you win if the final score is 14-10. The other key statistic is to look for games where your own personal beliefs indicate you are getting extra points in the selection.  Let’s say that you believe one team is six points better than their opponent, and they are a 4 ½-point favorite.  Giving the 4 ½ points in a straight selection is much too close to your six points difference.  One simple botched field goal or one long field goal made by the weaker team would kill your selection.  However, if you move the spread by 13 points in your favor, this part of the parlay now makes your favorite an 8 ½-point underdog.  The team you think can win by six can now lose by more than a touchdown and still win this part of the parlay. If you think two teams can play 10 times, and all 10 games will be within a narrow point range, you can even play both sides of a game.  For instance if Team A is favored by two points over Team B, and you believe that no matter which team wins, it will be by less than 10 points, you can take Team A at +11 and Team B at +15. Here is our Christmas gift to you. 1. 13-point teaser parlay Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis   Here is our reasoning for these four games.  Pittsburgh is in a must-win situation at home, and the Steelers will be mad after losing to the Jets Sunday.  Carolina won at home on Sunday and must turn around and play on Thursday night in possible snowy conditions with temperatures in the upper 20’s.  This is a perfect setup for the Steelers.  Carolina has nothing to play for in this game.  This is basically a pick when you lower the spread to a half point, as you win even if the Steelers win by one. Jacksonville has everything to play for, while the Redskins have nothing.  Washington’s big game was last Sunday against their rival.  They will not have much left in the tank this week.  Coach Mike Shanahan has lost the respect of a handful of players, and they are not going to go all out.  The Jags lost a tough game to Indianapolis, and they must now win out to have a legitimate shot at the AFC South title.  You get six points as a bonus, but we see the Jags winning this one outright. Baltimore is back in the race for the NFC North title.  The Steelers still hold the tiebreaker edge, but Pittsburgh has to play at Cleveland in week 17.  The Browns will be up for their rival, which means they may not be so up this week, especially after they just lost to their other big rival last week.  We believe Baltimore should win this outright, and we get 9 ½ points by taking the Ravens in this part of the parlay.  We have a slight problem with 9 ½, but we do not think Cleveland can win this by a touchdown if they play 10 times. We love the Raiders in this West Coast game.  Indianapolis will not have the services of Austin Collie, and the Raiders will hold Peyton Manning to two TD passes.  Indy will have a hard time stopping the Raiders’ offense, and we see a high-scoring game.  Remember, Oakland is still in the AFC West race, and they finish with the Chiefs in Kansas City.  They already hold the tiebreaker over San Diego, and a win in week 17 would give them the tiebreaker over the Chiefs.  They have to win in week 16 for week 17 to matter, and then they have to hope the Chargers lose once.  We believe Oakland will win this game, but even if they lose, it should not be by more than three to seven points. Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings                       NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Philadelphia 10 – 4 – 0 412 339 108.2 105.9 106.6 NY Giants 9 – 5 – 0 360 288 105.9 104.3 103.5 Dallas 5 – 9 – 0 354 396 98.7 99.2 99.8 Washington 5 – 9 – 0 268 343 93.9 96.9 95.4 Bitmap                     NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Green Bay 8 – 6 – 0 333 220 108.9 107.2 105.2 Chicago 10 – 4 – 0 293 242 103.8 104.4 104.9 Detroit 4 – 10 – 0 308 329 97.3 99.7 97.8 Minnesota 5 – 9 – 0 244 314 95.1 95.9 94.2                       NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Atlanta 12 – 2 – 0 369 261 107.7 106.1 107.2 New Orleans 10 – 4 – 0 354 270 105.9 103.8 105.2 Tampa Bay 8 – 6 – 0 280 290 98.6 98.9 100.3 Carolina 2 – 12 – 0 183 350 90.5 88.7 90.1                       NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased San Francisco 5 – 9 – 0 250 314 96.6 95.3 98.0 St. Louis 6 – 8 – 0 258 295 95.2 94.9 96.4 Seattle 6 – 8 – 0 279 363 93.4 93.1 95.1 Arizona 4 – 10 – 0 255 370 88.2 90.6 88.2                       AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased New England 12 – 2 – 0 446 303 112.8 110.6 110.9 NY Jets 10 – 4 – 0 295 259 102.8 103.3 103.8 Miami 7 – 7 – 0 239 261 100.2 100.0 99.7 Buffalo 4 – 10 – 0 273 353 98.3 98.0 97.7                       AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Baltimore 10 – 4 – 0 324 253 106.7 105.4 106.2 Pittsburgh 10 – 4 – 0 307 220 105.2 105.4 106.5 Cleveland 5 – 9 – 0 252 271 99.6 98.3 95.0 Cincinnati 3 – 11 – 0 281 362 95.3 95.9 94.3                       AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Indianapolis 8 – 6 – 0 381 342 101.2 102.2 101.5 Jacksonville 8 – 6 – 0 319 365 99.1 99.0 101.0 Houston 5 – 9 – 0 333 386 98.7 98.0 97.2 Tennessee 6 – 8 – 0 322 282 95.4 100.3 98.2                       AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased San Diego 8 – 6 – 0 388 260 106.9 106.3 105.9 Oakland 7 – 7 – 0 353 330 99.9 99.7 101.3 Kansas City 9 – 5 – 0 322 281 99.4 100.7 99.6 Denver 3 – 11 – 0 292 415 91.0 91.8 93.2 PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PITTSBURGH	Carolina	18.7	20.7	20.4	13.5	37
Dallas	ARIZONA	7.5	5.6	8.6	6.5	45
MIAMI	Detroit	4.9	2.3	3.9	3.5	41.5
PHILADELPHIA	Minnesota	16.1	13	15.4	NL	NL
JACKSONVILLE	Washington	8.2	5.1	8.6	7	45.5
ST. LOUIS	San Francisco	1.6	2.6	1.4	2.5	39.5
TAMPA BAY	Seattle	7.2	7.8	7.2	6	44
New England	BUFFALO	12.5	10.6	13.2	7.5	44
CHICAGO	New York Jets	4	4.1	4.1	2.5	36
Baltimore	CLEVELAND	4.1	4.1	8.2	3.5	38.5
KANSAS CITY	Tennessee	8	4.4	5.4	5	42
OAKLAND	Indianapolis	1.7	0.5	2.8	-3	47
Houston	DENVER	4.7	3.2	1	3	48.5
GREEN BAY	New York Giants	6	5.9	4.7	NL	NL
San Diego	CINCINNATI	8.6	7.4	8.6	7.5	44
ATLANTA	New Orleans	5.8	6.3	6	2.5	48.5

 

PiRate Playoff Projection

N F C

1. Atlanta 13-3

2. Philadelphia 12-4

3. Chicago 11-5

4. San Francisco 7-9

5. New Orleans 12-4

6. Green Bay 10-6

 

A F C

1. New England 14-2

2. Baltimore 12-4

3. San Diego 10-6

4. Jacksonville 10-6

5. New York Jets 11-5

6. Pittsburgh 11-5

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Chicago over Green Bay

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Pittsburgh over San Diego

New York Jets over Jacksonville

 

Divisional Playoff Round

Philadelphia over Chicago

Atlanta over New Orleans

 

New England over Pittsburgh

Baltimore over New York Jets

 

Conference Championships

Philadelphia over Atlanta

 

New England over Baltimore

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

PiRate QB Passer Rating 



Player	Team	G	AYPA	Int %	PiRate
Tom Brady	NE	14	6.8	0.89	114.2
Michael Vick	PHI	11	6.6	1.52	107.6
Matt Cassel	KC	13	5.8	1.31	105.0
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	10	6	1.49	104.5
Josh Freeman	TB	14	5.7	1.42	103.4
Phillip Rivers	SD	14	7	2.37	102.3
Vince Young	TEN	9	6.2	1.92	101.8
Joe Flacco	BAL	14	5.7	1.77	100.3
Kyle Orton	DEN	13	5.6	1.81	99.5
Colt McCoy	CLE	6	5.7	1.97	98.6
Matt Ryan	ATL	14	5.2	1.76	97.6
Matt Schaub	HOU	14	5.6	2.12	96.7
Aaron Rodgers	GB	13	6.1	2.44	96.7
Peyton Manning	IND	14	5.6	2.46	93.7
Kevin Kolb	PHI	6	4.9	2.61	88.4
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	14	4.6	2.55	87.3
Tony Romo	DAL	6	5.7	3.29	87.0
Jason Campbell	OAK	11	5.1	3.05	85.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	12	4.9	2.97	85.3
Jon Kitna	DAL	9	5.4	3.36	84.7
Drew Brees	NO	14	5.2	3.33	83.8
Sam Bradford	STL	14	4.1	2.71	83.1
Kerry Collins	TEN	8	4.5	2.97	83.1
Donovan McNabb	WAS	13	4.8	3.18	82.9
Shaun Hill	DET	9	4.4	3.13	81.1
Jay Cutler	CHI	13	4.9	3.53	80.4
Derek Anderson	ARI	12	4.1	3.06	80.0
Chad Henne	MIA	13	4.7	3.48	79.7
Alex Smith	SF	9	4.4	3.36	79.1
Carson Palmer	CIN	14	4.4	3.46	78.2
Jimmie Clausen	CAR	11	3.1	2.88	76.0
Eli Manning	NYG	14	5	4.19	75.1
David Garrard	JAX	13	4.6	3.96	74.9
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	13	4.3	3.86	74.1
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	6	4	4.43	67.4
Jake Delhomme	CLE	5	3.3	4.70	61.1
Brett Favre	MIN	13	4	5.31	59.7
Matt Moore	CAR	6	2	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%)) + 105) *0.8
						AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Yards Per Attempt – Yards After Catch
						AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 15–December 16-20, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
NY Giants	9	–	4	–	0	329	250	107.1	105.4	105.6
Philadelphia	9	–	4	–	0	374	308	107.0	105.4	105.6
Dallas	4	–	9	–	0	321	366	99.0	99.8	99.9
Washington	5	–	8	–	0	238	310	93.6	95.8	92.6
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	8	–	5	–	0	306	189	108.6	106.7	105.0
Chicago	9	–	4	–	0	253	228	101.6	101.7	103.2
Minnesota	5	–	8	–	0	230	274	97.3	98.4	97.5
Detroit	3	–	10	–	0	285	309	96.5	98.1	94.8
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Atlanta	11	–	2	–	0	335	243	106.9	106.1	107.5
New Orleans	10	–	3	–	0	330	240	106.3	105.0	106.6
Tampa Bay	8	–	5	–	0	260	267	99.4	99.9	101.2
Carolina	1	–	12	–	0	164	338	90.3	88.9	89.4
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco	5	–	8	–	0	243	280	98.2	97.1	99.8
St. Louis	6	–	7	–	0	245	268	96.5	95.7	98.0
Seattle	6	–	7	–	0	261	329	94.2	93.7	96.5
Arizona	4	–	9	–	0	243	351	88.4	91.3	92.5
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England	11	–	2	–	0	415	276	113.1	111.8	111.1
NY Jets	9	–	4	–	0	273	242	101.6	101.1	102.5
Miami	7	–	6	–	0	225	244	101.2	101.4	101.9
Buffalo	3	–	10	–	0	256	339	97.3	97.1	96.0
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Pittsburgh	10	–	3	–	0	290	198	106.4	106.2	107.4
Baltimore	9	–	4	–	0	294	229	106.3	104.8	105.4
Cleveland	5	–	8	–	0	235	252	99.9	99.1	96.9
Cincinnati	2	–	11	–	0	262	345	95.0	95.1	93.9
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	7	–	6	–	0	347	318	100.7	101.3	101.7
Houston	5	–	8	–	0	316	355	100.2	100.0	99.0
Jacksonville	8	–	5	–	0	295	331	99.6	99.8	101.8
Tennessee	5	–	8	–	0	291	265	93.9	97.8	93.7
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	7	–	6	–	0	354	253	105.3	105.9	104.2
Oakland	6	–	7	–	0	314	307	99.2	99.1	99.8
Kansas City	8	–	5	–	0	295	268	98.1	98.6	99.5
Denver	3	–	10	–	0	269	376	91.7	92.3	89.7

 

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 3:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog				PiRate		Mean		Bias	Vegas		Totals
SAN DIEGO	San Francisco				11.1		12.8		8.4	8 1/2		44 1/2
ST. LOUIS	Kansas City				1.4		0.1		2.5	NL		NL
Houston	TENNESSEE				3.3		-0.8		2.3	-1 1/2		47
INDIANAPOLIS	Jacksonville				4.1		4.5		2.9	5		48 1/2
CAROLINA	Arizona				4.9		0.6		-0.1	2 1/2		37 1/2
Cleveland	CINCINNATI				1.9		1.0		3.0	-2		40
MIAMI	Buffalo				5.9		6.3		7.9	5 1/2		41
NEW YORK GIANTS	Philadelphia				3.1		3.0		3.0	2 1/2		46
DALLAS	Washington				8.4		7.0		10.3	6		45
TAMPA BAY	Detroit				4.9		3.8		8.4	6		43
BALTIMORE	New Orleans				3.0		2.8		1.8	2		43 1/2
Atlanta	SEATTLE				8.7		8.4		7.0	6		45
PITTSBURGH	New York Jets				8.8		9.1		8.9	6		35 1/2
OAKLAND	Denver				10.5		9.8		13.1	6 1/2		44
NEW ENGLAND	Green Bay				7.5		8.1		9.1	NL		NL
Chicago	MINNESOTA				1.3		0.3		2.7	NL		NL
PiRate Passer #  Player		Team	G	AYPA		Int%		PiRate #
Tom Brady		NE	13	6.9		0.94		114.4
Michael Vick		PHI	10	6.8		1.36		110.1
Matt Cassel		KC	12	5.9		1.13		107.1
Ben Roethlisberger		PIT	9	6.2		1.72		103.6
Josh Freeman		TB	13	5.6		1.54		101.8
Vince Young		TEN	9	6.2		1.92		101.8
Phillip Rivers		SD	13	6.8		2.51		100.0
Joe Flacco		BAL	13	5.7		1.86		99.6
Kyle Orton		DEN	13	5.6		1.81		99.5
Matt Ryan		ATL	13	5.3		1.68		98.9
Matt Schaub		HOU	13	5.8		2.15		97.6
Aaron Rodgers		GB	13	6.1		2.44		96.7
Troy Smith		SF	5	5.6		2.38		94.4
Colt McCoy		CLE	5	5.4		2.36		93.5
Peyton Manning		IND	13	5.6		2.63		92.2
Jason Campbell		OAK	10	5		2.54		89.6
Kevin Kolb		PHI	6	4.9		2.61		88.4
Tony Romo		DAL	6	5.7		3.29		87.0
Mark Sanchez		NYJ	13	4.6		2.72		85.8
Sam Bradford		STL	13	4.3		2.53		85.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick		BUF	11	4.8		2.91		85.3
Drew Brees		NO	13	5.3		3.43		83.5
Kerry Collins		TEN	7	4.3		2.81		83.4
Donovan McNabb		WAS	13	4.8		3.18		82.9
Shaun Hill		DET	9	4.4		3.13		81.1
Jay Cutler		CHI	12	4.9		3.49		80.7
Alex Smith		SF	8	4.6		3.35		80.3
Derek Anderson		ARI	12	4.1		3.06		80.0
Jon Kitna		DAL	8	5.1		3.83		78.8
Matt Hasselbeck		SEA	12	4.6		3.55		78.6
Chad Henne		MIA	12	4.7		3.63		78.4
Carson Palmer		CIN	13	4.2		3.62		75.6
Eli Manning		NYG	13	4.9		4.34		73.3
David Garrard		JAX	12	4.4		4.14		72.2
Jimmie Clausen		CAR	10	2.8		3.13		72.2
Bruce Gradkowski		OAK	6	4		4.43		67.4
Brett Favre		MIN	12	4.1		5.13		61.8
Jake Delhomme		CLE	5	3.3		4.70		61.1
Matt Moore		CAR	6	2		6.99		33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (yards per attempt minus yards after catch)

AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New Orleans

2. Philadelphia

3. Chicago

4. Seattle

5. Atlanta

6. New York Giants

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Jacksonville

4. San Diego

5. Baltimore

6. New York Jets

 

Wildcard Round

Chicago over New York Giants

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Jacksonville over New York Jets

San Diego over Baltimore

 

Divisional Round

New Orleans over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Chicago

 

New England over San Diego

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

New England over Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl

New Orleans over New England

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 13–December 2-6, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Philadelphia	7	–	4	–	0	310	257	106.6	105.7	105.8	2
NY Giants	7	–	4	–	0	277	240	103.3	102.5	103.3	2
Dallas	3	–	8	–	0	256	301	96.8	98.9	99.5	2
Washington	5	–	6	–	0	215	262	96.3	97.1	96.1	3
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Green Bay	7	–	4	–	0	269	166	109.9	109.9	106.8	3
Chicago	8	–	3	–	0	222	172	103.3	103.4	104.7	4
Minnesota	4	–	7	–	0	189	239	97.1	99.0	99.6	3
Detroit	2	–	9	–	0	258	282	95.0	96.7	93.9	4
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Atlanta	9	–	2	–	0	276	209	106.3	105.3	106.9	4
New Orleans	8	–	3	–	0	265	197	105.8	104.5	106.6	2
Tampa Bay	7	–	4	–	0	219	223	99.1	99.0	100.6	2
Carolina	1	–	10	–	0	140	276	92.7	90.0	90.3	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Francisco	4	–	7	–	0	187	225	97.2	95.4	98.3	4
St. Louis	5	–	6	–	0	213	231	95.2	94.5	97.1	4
Seattle	5	–	6	–	0	209	275	93.9	92.5	95.3	3
Arizona	3	–	8	–	0	194	319	88.0	88.3	89.7	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
New England	9	–	2	–	0	334	266	107.8	107.0	107.5	3
NY Jets	9	–	2	–	0	264	187	106.3	105.5	106.3	2
Miami	6	–	5	–	0	205	225	102.3	101.3	102.3	3
Buffalo	2	–	9	–	0	229	295	97.7	97.1	97.0	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Baltimore	8	–	3	–	0	250	188	107.4	105.9	106.1	4
Pittsburgh	8	–	3	–	0	254	181	105.0	105.7	104.9	2
Cleveland	4	–	7	–	0	216	229	98.6	99.5	98.2	4
Cincinnati	2	–	9	–	0	225	288	95.0	95.5	91.3	3
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Indianapolis	6	–	5	–	0	282	252	102.9	102.9	102.2	4
Houston	5	–	6	–	0	264	287	100.6	100.3	99.4	2
Tennessee	5	–	6	–	0	257	218	96.7	102.1	96.5	4
Jacksonville	6	–	5	–	0	240	294	96.6	96.5	98.4	3
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Diego	6	–	5	–	0	310	225	106.9	106.2	104.2	4
Kansas City	7	–	4	–	0	285	231	100.2	100.2	101.1	4
Oakland	5	–	6	–	0	255	256	96.3	96.4	97.7	2
Denver	3	–	8	–	0	250	323	93.6	95.2	92.2	2

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 13: December 2-6, 2010
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PHILADELPHIA	Houston	8.0	7.4	8.4	8 1/2	51 1/2
MINNESOTA	Buffalo	2.4	4.9	5.6	6	44 1/2
MIAMI	Cleveland	6.7	4.8	7.1	4 1/2	42 1/2
TENNESSEE	Jacksonville	4.1	9.6	2.1	NL	NL
KANSAS CITY	Denver	10.6	9.0	12.9	8 1/2	45 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS	Washington	9.0	7.4	9.2	7	43
Chicago	DETROIT	4.3	2.7	6.8	3 1/2	44 1/2
GREEN BAY	San Francisco	15.7	17.5	11.5	9 1/2	42
New Orleans	CINCINNATI	7.8	6.0	12.3	6 1/2	46 1/2
Atlanta	TAMPA BAY	5.2	4.3	4.3	3	44 1/2
SAN DIEGO	Oakland	14.6	13.8	10.5	12 1/2	45 1/2
SEATTLE	Carolina	4.2	5.5	8.0	6	39 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	Dallas	10.1	8.0	6.7	5 1/2	47 1/2
St. Louis	ARIZONA	3.2	2.2	3.4	3	43
BALTIMORE	Pittsburgh	6.4	4.2	5.2	3	40
NEW ENGLAND	New York Jets	4.5	4.5	4.2	3 1/2	46

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int %	#
Michael Vick	Phi	6.8	0.43	118.3
Tom Brady	NE	6.5	1.12	110.5
Kyle Orton	Den	6.3	1.40	107.0
Matt Cassel	KC	6.0	1.24	106.7
Matt Ryan	Atl	5.6	1.23	104.5
Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	6.4	1.82	103.8
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.0	2.39	102.1
Josh Freeman	TB	5.6	1.53	101.9
Vince Young	Ten	6.2	1.92	101.8
Matt Shaub	Hou	5.8	1.91	99.7
Aaron Rodgers	GB	6.2	2.44	97.3
Seneca Wallace	Cle	5.4	2.00	96.6
Joe Flacco	Bal	5.7	2.19	96.6
Peyton Manning	Ind	5.6	2.26	95.5
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.2	2.20	93.8
Colt McCoy	Cle	5.4	2.36	93.5
Sam Bradford	Stl	4.5	2.18	90.0
Matt Hasselebeck	Sea	4.9	2.56	88.9
Kevin Kolb	Phi	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	Dal	5.7	3.29	87.0
Drew Brees	NO	5.4	3.29	85.3
Chad Henne	Mia	5.3	3.27	84.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick	Buf	4.8	3.03	84.2
Kerry Collins	Ten	4.2	2.80	82.8
Jay Cutler	Chi	5.0	3.42	81.9
Donovan McNabb	Was	4.8	3.31	81.8
Derek Anderson	Ari	4.2	2.93	81.7
Shaun Hill	Det	4.4	3.13	81.1
Jason Campbell	Oak	4.2	3.16	79.7
Jon Kitna	Dal	5.2	4.00	77.9
Carson Palmer	Cin	4.3	3.47	77.5
Eli Manning	NYG	5.2	4.26	75.7
Jimmy Clausen	Car	3.1	3.01	74.9
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
David Garrard	Jax	4.3	4.42	69.2
Bruce Gradkowski	Oak	4.0	4.43	67.4
Brett Favre	Min	4.2	4.86	64.8
Matt Moore	Car	2.0	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  This statistic removed the receivers’ Yards After Catch.

AYPA can be found at www.advancednflstats.com

Projected NFL Playoff Seedings

NFC

1. Atlanta Falcons

2. Chicago Bears

3. Philadelphia Eagles

4. St. Louis Rams

5. Green Bay Packers

6. New Orleans Saints

AFC

1. New England Patriots

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

3. San Diego Chargers

4. Indianapolis Colts

5. New York Jets

6. Baltimore Ravens

Wildcard Round

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Green Bay over St. Louis

Baltimore over San Diego

New York Jets over Indianapolis

Divisional Round

Atlanta over New Orleans

Chicago over Green Bay

Baltimore over New England

Pittsburgh over New York Jets

Conference Championships

Chicago over Atlanta

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

SUPER BOWL

Chicago over Baltimore

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 12–November 25-29, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
(listed by PiRate #)
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Philadelphia	7	–	3	–	0	284	226	106.9	106.2	106.0	2
NY Giants	6	–	4	–	0	253	220	104.1	102.5	103.5	2
Washington	5	–	5	–	0	202	245	97.3	98.8	99.0	3
Dallas	3	–	7	–	0	229	271	96.3	98.8	99.4	2
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	7	–	3	–	0	252	146	110.4	108.5	107.7	3
Chicago	7	–	3	–	0	191	146	103.0	102.8	102.7	4
Detroit	2	–	8	–	0	234	237	96.7	97.1	95.5	4
Minnesota	3	–	7	–	0	172	226	96.1	97.3	94.8	3
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans	7	–	3	–	0	235	170	106.3	103.8	105.4	2
Atlanta	8	–	2	–	0	256	192	105.8	105.0	106.7	4
Tampa Bay	7	–	3	–	0	209	206	98.3	99.6	101.1	2
Carolina	1	–	9	–	0	117	252	91.5	89.0	90.4	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Seattle	5	–	5	–	0	185	233	95.4	94.9	96.0	3
St. Louis	4	–	6	–	0	177	198	94.5	94.6	95.8	4
San Francisco	3	–	7	–	0	160	219	94.2	93.9	95.6	4
Arizona	3	–	7	–	0	188	292	91.0	91.3	91.4	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England	8	–	2	–	0	289	242	106.1	105.6	106.9	3
NY Jets	8	–	2	–	0	238	177	106.0	105.0	106.1	2
Miami	5	–	5	–	0	172	208	100.7	100.5	100.0	3
Buffalo	2	–	8	–	0	213	276	97.2	97.0	96.2	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Baltimore	7	–	3	–	0	233	178	108.2	105.1	106.0	4
Pittsburgh	7	–	3	–	0	235	165	105.5	106.2	105.7	2
Cleveland	3	–	7	–	0	192	206	99.8	99.9	97.3	4
Cincinnati	2	–	8	–	0	215	262	95.3	95.8	93.2	3
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	6	–	4	–	0	268	216	105.6	104.5	104.8	4
Tennessee	5	–	5	–	0	257	198	98.9	103.4	100.2	4
Houston	4	–	6	–	0	244	287	98.4	98.4	97.9	2
Jacksonville	6	–	4	–	0	220	270	95.8	97.6	100.8	3
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	5	–	5	–	0	274	211	104.2	103.5	103.7	4
Kansas City	6	–	4	–	0	243	207	98.7	99.8	100.6	4
Oakland	5	–	5	–	0	238	223	97.9	98.1	98.9	2
Denver	3	–	7	–	0	217	287	94.3	95.4	91.1	2

Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 12: November 25-29, 2010
Vegas Line as of 11:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
New England	DETROIT	5.4	4.5	7.4	6 1/2	51
New Orleans	DALLAS	8.0	3.0	4.0	3 1/2	50
NEW YORK JETS	Cincinnati	12.7	11.2	14.9	9	43
WASHINGTON	Minnesota	4.2	4.5	7.2	1 1/2	43
Pittsburgh	BUFFALO	6.3	7.2	7.5	6 1/2	43
HOUSTON	Tennessee	1.5	-3.0	-0.3	NL	NL
NEW YORK GIANTS	Jacksonville	10.3	6.9	4.7	7	44 1/2
CLEVELAND	Carolina	12.3	14.9	10.9	11	37 1/2
BALTIMORE	Tampa Bay	13.9	9.5	8.9	7 1/2	41
CHICAGO	Philadelphia	0.1	0.6	0.7	-3	42 1/2
Green Bay	ATLANTA	0.6	-0.5	-3.0	-2	47 1/2
Miami	OAKLAND	0.8	0.4	-0.9	NL	NL
Kansas City	SEATTLE	0.3	1.9	1.6	1 1/2	44 1/2
DENVER	Bitmap St. Louis	1.8	2.8	-2.7	4	44 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	San Diego	5.4	5.0	5.1	3	52
ARIZONA	San Francisco	0.8	1.4	-0.2	Pk	40

 

Projected NFL Playoffs

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Green Bay

3. Philadelphia

4. Seattle

5. New Orleans

6. Chicago

AFC

1. Baltimore

2. New York Jets

3. Indianapolis

4. San Diego

5. New England

6. Pittsburgh

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	7.2	0.00	124.3
Tom Brady	NE	6.1	1.22	107.5
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.2	1.55	105.1
Matt Cassel	KC	5.9	1.37	104.9
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.6	1.33	103.7
Peyton Manning	IND	5.9	1.59	103.0
Vince Young	TEN	6.2	1.92	101.8
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	6.5	2.14	101.6
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.0	2.55	100.8
Josh Freeman	TB	5.7	1.72	100.7
Matt Schaub	HOU	6.0	2.11	99.0
Joe Flacco	BAL	5.7	2.12	97.3
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	2.00	96.6
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.3	2.08	95.3
Colt McCoy	CLE	5.4	2.36	93.5
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.8	2.69	92.8
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	4.9	2.23	91.8
Kevin Kolb	PHI	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	DAL	5.7	3.29	87.0
Sam Bradford	STL	4.1	2.39	85.9
Drew Brees	NO	5.2	3.36	83.6
Chad Henne	MIA	5.0	3.27	83.2
Shaun Hill	DET	4.5	2.95	83.2
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	4.8	3.16	83.1
Kerry Collins	TEN	4.2	2.80	82.8
Donovan McNabb	WAS	4.9	3.35	81.9
Derek Anderson	ARI	4.2	2.94	81.6
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.7	3.30	81.3
Jason Campbell	OAK	4.2	3.16	79.7
Jay Cutler	CHI	4.7	3.69	77.8
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	2.8	2.90	74.2
Jon Kitna	DAL	5.0	4.43	73.0
Eli Manning	NYG	4.9	4.55	71.4
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	3.8	3.97	70.4
David Garrard	JAX	4.7	4.67	69.2
Brett Favre	MIN	4.0	5.20	60.7
Matt Moore	CAR	2.0	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
					AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It eliminates Yards After Catch and can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 11–November 18-22, 2010

Hottest Team In The League?

Quick question.  Three NFL teams have not lost a game since week six.  One of those three has outscored its opponents by 26 points per game in that time.  One has given up just one touchdown in their last two games.  The other has averaged over 30 points per game in their three-game winning streak.  Can you name these three teams?

It is no surprise that Green Bay has fared strongly in their current three-game winning streak.  The Packers were supposed to win their division and were supposed to be a top contender for the NFC representative in the Super Bowl  thanks to a powerful offense.  But, the Packers have done it with defense as of late, holding the Jets scoreless and giving up just seven to Dallas.

Atlanta has been a contender in the NFC South ever since Matt Ryan arrived.  The Falcons have scored 92 points in their three-game winning streak.

Ah, but who is this most dominating team of the trio–the one outscoring opponents by 38-12?  It’s the Oakland Raiders who all of a sudden find themselved in first place in the AFC West.  The Raiders visit Pittsburgh, and if they can beat the Steelers, they are officially back.

The Great Switch

Four games into this season, it appeared that offense was on the decline and half the league might give up less than 17 points per game.  As of late, offense has ruled.  Now half of the league could top 350 points.  This is just another part of this fascinating season in which no team appears to be dominant.  Look for 20 teams to challenge for the 12 playoff spots.  It would not surprise us to see three or more spots up for grabs in week 17.

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
(listed alphabetically by division)
Bitmap NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Philadelphia	6	–	3	–	0	257	209	106.2	104.8	105.0	2
NY Giants	6	–	3	–	0	236	193	104.8	102.8	104.3	2
Washington	4	–	5	–	0	183	229	95.6	97.2	93.5	3
Dallas	2	–	7	–	0	194	252	93.6	97.5	98.0	2
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Green Bay	6	–	3	–	0	221	143	108.1	106.5	104.5	3
Chicago	6	–	3	–	0	175	146	99.4	99.6	100.8	4
Detroit	2	–	7	–	0	215	202	98.9	99.4	97.0	4
Minnesota	3	–	6	–	0	169	195	98.4	100.0	97.6	3
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
New Orleans	6	–	3	–	0	201	151	105.8	103.1	103.9	2
Atlanta	7	–	2	–	0	222	175	104.0	103.6	104.9	4
Tampa Bay	6	–	3	–	0	188	206	96.0	96.9	98.9	2
Carolina	1	–	8	–	0	104	215	92.9	90.9	90.5	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Francisco	3	–	6	–	0	160	198	96.5	96.4	98.3	4
St. Louis	4	–	5	–	0	160	164	96.3	96.3	97.1	4
Seattle	5	–	4	–	0	166	199	95.9	95.8	98.1	3
Arizona	3	–	6	–	0	175	261	91.8	93.5	92.6	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
NY Jets	7	–	2	–	0	208	150	107.1	106.0	106.6	2
New England	7	–	2	–	0	258	214	106.3	105.0	106.8	3
Miami	5	–	4	–	0	172	192	102.8	102.2	102.0	3
Buffalo	1	–	8	–	0	164	245	95.0	94.7	92.9	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Baltimore	6	–	3	–	0	196	165	106.8	104.8	105.1	4
Pittsburgh	6	–	3	–	0	200	162	103.2	104.1	104.2	2
Cleveland	3	–	6	–	0	172	182	101.6	100.3	100.7	4
Cincinnati	2	–	7	–	0	184	213	98.0	98.8	96.7	3
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Indianapolis	6	–	3	–	0	240	185	105.4	104.1	104.7	4
Tennessee	5	–	4	–	0	241	179	102.1	104.2	101.6	4
Houston	4	–	5	–	0	217	257	97.3	97.0	97.4	2
Jacksonville	5	–	4	–	0	196	250	94.0	95.9	98.3	3
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Diego	4	–	5	–	0	239	197	102.6	102.2	101.9	4
Oakland	5	–	4	–	0	235	188	100.2	100.6	101.7	2
Kansas City	5	–	4	–	0	212	194	97.9	98.7	99.1	4
Denver	3	–	6	–	0	203	252	95.9	97.3	94.8	2

 

Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 10: November 18-22, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
MIAMI	Chicago	6.4	5.6	4.2	1 1/2	40
PITTSBURGH	Oakland	5.0	5.5	4.5	7 1/2	41
NEW YORK JETS	Houston	11.8	11.0	11.2	6 1/2	45 1/2
Baltimore	CAROLINA	11.9	11.9	12.6	10	37 1/2
TENNESSEE	Washington	10.5	11.0	12.1	7	44
Detroit	DALLAS	3.3	-0.1	-3.0	-6 1/2	47
Green Bay	MINNESOTA	6.7	3.3	3.9	3	44
CINCINNATI	Buffalo	6.0	7.1	6.8	5 1/2	44
Cleveland	JACKSONVILLE	4.6	1.4	-0.6	1 1/2	43
KANSAS CITY	Arizona	10.1	9.2	10.5	7 1/2	44
NEW ORLEANS	Seattle	11.9	9.3	7.8	11 1/2	44
Atlanta	ST. LOUIS	4.7	3.3	3.8	3	43
SAN FRANCISCO	Tampa Bay	4.5	3.5	3.4	3	41 1/2
NEW ENGLAND	Indianapolis	3.9	2.6	5.1	3	50 1/2
PHILADELPHIA	New York Giants	3.4	4.0	2.7	3	48 1/2
SAN DIEGO	Denver	10.7	8.9	11.1	10	50

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	7.5	0.00	126.0
Peyton Manning	IND	6.1	1.03	109.1
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.6	1.43	108.4
Tom Brady	NE	6	1.32	106.0
Matt Cassel	KC	5.7	1.50	102.7
Phillip Rivers	SD	7	2.43	101.8
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.5	1.48	101.8
Josh Freeman	TB	5.7	1.85	99.6
Vince Young	TEN	5.8	2.14	97.6
Colt McCoy	CLE	5.6	2.02	97.6
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	2.00	96.6
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	6.1	2.53	95.9
Matt Schaub	HOU	5.8	2.34	95.9
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.2	2.01	95.4
Joe Flacco	BAL	5.5	2.36	94.1
Aaron Rodger	GB	5.6	2.97	89.2
Kevin Kolb	PHI	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	DAL	5.7	3.29	87.0
Sam Bradford	STL	4.1	2.40	85.9
Jason Campbell	OAK	4.8	2.92	85.1
Drew Brees	NO	5.1	3.21	84.3
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.7	3.06	83.4
Chad Henne	MIA	5	3.27	83.2
Kerry Collins	TEN	4.2	2.80	82.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	4.6	3.08	82.6
Donovan McNabb	WAS	4.8	3.57	79.5
Shaun Hill	DET	4.4	3.37	79.0
Jay Cutler	CHI	4.8	3.66	78.7
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	3.7	2.97	78.6
Eli Manning	NYG	5.4	4.08	78.4
David Garrard	JAX	5.1	3.89	78.3
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	2.8	2.90	74.2
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	4.3	3.92	73.6
Derek Anderson	ARI	3.7	3.87	70.7
Jon Kitna	DAL	5	5.22	66.0
Brett Favre	MIN	4	5.54	57.6
Matt Moore	CAR	2	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It eliminates Yards After Catch and can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 10–November 11-15, 2010

Current NFL Standings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
NY Giants	6	–	2	–	0	216	160	108.0	105.0	108.7	2
Philadelphia	5	–	3	–	0	198	181	103.6	102.9	105.0	2
Washington	4	–	4	–	0	155	170	98.2	99.2	99.6	4
Dallas	1	–	7	–	0	161	232	90.4	94.8	90.0	3
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	6	–	3	–	0	221	143	108.1	106.5	106.7	3
Minnesota	3	–	5	–	0	156	168	99.6	100.2	96.5	3
Detroit	2	–	6	–	0	203	188	99.0	99.8	101.1	4
Chicago	5	–	3	–	0	148	133	98.2	99.3	101.4	2
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans	6	–	3	–	0	201	151	105.8	103.0	106.1	2
Atlanta	6	–	2	–	0	196	154	103.2	102.9	106.1	3
Tampa Bay	5	–	3	–	0	157	190	94.7	96.7	100.8	2
Carolina	1	–	7	–	0	88	184	94.2	90.9	91.2	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco	2	–	6	–	0	137	178	97.1	95.6	97.5	4
St. Louis	4	–	4	–	0	140	141	95.7	96.9	99.3	3
Arizona	3	–	5	–	0	157	225	94.3	94.6	92.5	4
Seattle	4	–	4	–	0	130	181	93.4	94.1	94.6	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
NY Jets	6	–	2	–	0	182	130	107.3	105.4	106.9	4
New England	6	–	2	–	0	219	188	104.7	104.0	104.3	2
Miami	4	–	4	–	0	143	175	101.7	100.3	101.1	2
Buffalo	0	–	8	–	0	150	233	94.9	93.4	93.6	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Baltimore	6	–	2	–	0	175	139	107.6	104.8	105.6	2
Pittsburgh	6	–	2	–	0	174	123	104.8	106.4	105.4	2
Cleveland	3	–	5	–	0	152	156	101.4	100.2	101.1	2
Cincinnati	2	–	6	–	0	167	190	97.5	97.9	93.2	4
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	5	–	3	–	0	187	151	105.9	105.4	104.2	4
Tennessee	5	–	3	–	0	224	150	103.2	106.6	103.3	2
Houston	4	–	4	–	0	176	196	97.5	98.4	97.5	2
Jacksonville	4	–	4	–	0	165	226	93.8	95.2	95.5	4
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	4	–	5	–	0	239	197	102.6	102.8	100.0	4
Kansas City	5	–	3	–	0	183	145	100.3	101.4	100.5	2
Oakland	5	–	4	–	0	235	188	100.2	100.6	100.3	2
Denver	2	–	6	–	0	154	223	93.5	94.7	90.6	2

 

THIS WEEK’S PIRATE, MEAN, AND BIAS SPREADS

 

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Baltimore	ATLANTA	1.4	-1.1	-3.5	-1 1/2	43
INDIANAPOLIS	Cincinnati	12.4	11.5	15.0	8	47 1/2
JACKSONVILLE	Houston	0.3	0.8	2.0	2	50
MIAMI	Tennessee	0.5	-4.3	-0.1	-1	42 1/2
CHICAGO	Minnesota	0.6	1.1	6.9	-1	40 1/2
Detroit	BUFFALO	2.1	4.4	5.5	-3	42 1/2
New York Jets	CLEVELAND	3.9	3.2	3.8	3	37
TAMPA BAY	Carolina	2.5	7.8	11.6	7	35 1/2
Kansas City	DENVER	4.8	4.7	7.9	1	42
SAN FRANCISCO	St. Louis	5.4	2.7	2.2	6	38 1/2
ARIZONA	Seattle	4.9	4.5	1.9	3	41
NEW YORK GIANTS	Dallas	19.6	12.2	20.7	14	45
PITTSBURGH	New England	2.1	4.4	3.1	4 1/2	45
Philadelphia	WASHINGTON	1.4	-0.3	1.4	3	42

 

PIRATE QUARTERBACK PASSER FORMULA

 

Player	Team	AYPA	Int%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	6.7	0.00	121.5
Peyton Manning	IND	6.2	1.14	108.7
Vince Young	TEN	6.5	1.64	106.0
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.4	1.58	105.9
Tom Brady	NE	5.7	1.53	102.4
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.0	2.43	101.8
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.5	1.74	99.5
Matt Cassel	KC	5.2	1.87	96.7
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	2.00	96.6
Mark San chez	NYJ	5.2	1.97	95.8
Josh Freeman	TB	5.3	2.03	95.8
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	6.4	2.75	95.6
Joe Flacco	BAL	5.6	2.28	95.3
Matt Schaub	HOU	5.4	2.62	91.2
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.9	2.52	89.3
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.6	2.97	89.2
Kevin Kolb	PHI	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	DAL	5.7	3.29	87.0
Donovan McNabb	WAS	4.9	2.89	86.0
Jason Campbell	OAK	4.8	2.92	85.1
Drew Brees	NO	5.1	3.21	84.3
Chad Henne	MIA	4.9	3.24	83.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	4.6	3.08	82.6
Jay Cutler	CHI	4.9	3.32	82.2
Sam Bradford	STL	3.9	2.74	81.7
Kerry Collins	TEN	4.6	3.45	79.4
Shaun Hill	DET	4.4	3.37	79.0
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	3.7	2.97	78.6
Eli Manning	NYG	5.3	4.06	78.0
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	4.3	3.92	73.6
Derek Anderson	ARI	3.7	3.87	70.7
David Garrard	JAX	4.2	4.70	66.2
Brett Favre	MIN	4.3	5.04	63.7
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	2.0	3.67	62.9
Jon Kitna	DAL	3.6	5.36	57.0
Trent Edwards	JAX	1.4	5.26	45.5
Matt Moore	CAR	2.0	6.99	33.7
Formula: [((7* Air Yards Per Attempt [eliminates YAC]) – (11* Int.%)) +105] * 0.8
AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 

 

Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New York Giants              12-4

2. Atlanta Falcons                 12-4

3. Green Bay Packers           10-6

4. Seattle Seahawks                 8-8

5. New Orleans Saints           11-5

6. Philadelphia Eagles           11-5

 

A F C

1. Pittsburgh Steelers            13-3

2. New York Jets                   12-4

3. Indianapolis Colts             10-6

4. Kansas City Chiefs            10-6

5. Baltimore Ravens              12-4

6. New England Patriots       11-5

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 9–November 7-8, 2010

AFC West Showdown in Oakland

 

How long has it been since a Raiders-Chiefs game meant so much?  Not since 1993 has this rivalry game been so important.  

 

Those of us that remember football from 45 years ago can remember some wild games between these two teams.  In 1968, Chiefs’ head coach Hank Stram faced a dilemma when the 5-1 Chiefs hosted the 5-1 Raiders.  His top receivers were injured and would miss the game.  Kansas City had three excellent running backs.  Stram installed a double tight end full-house T formation and ran the ball almost exclusively.  Len Dawson threw just three passes that day, but the running back trio of Mike Garrett, Robert Holmes, and Wendell Hayes rushed for close to 300 yards in a shocking win over the Raiders.

 

The two teams finished the season tied at 12-2, and they faced off in Oakland in a playoff for the AFL West title.  Oakland got revenge with a 41-6 blowout.

 

The following year, Oakland beat the Chiefs in a preseason game, and then beat them twice during the regular season.  In 1969, in the AFL’s final season, the league expanded its playoffs from two to four teams.  Playing for a fourth time, the Chiefs won in the most important AFL game of the season.  It put them in the Super Bowl.

 

The following year, the first as NFL members, the Chiefs appeared set to win when a huge fight broke out as the Chiefs were running out the clock.  Penalties forced KC to punt, and Oakland got the ball back one final time and forced a tie.  The Raiders finished 8-4-2 to 7-5-2 for the Chiefs.  Had Kansas City won that game, the Chiefs would have won the AFC West in a tiebreaker.

 

The rivalry took on added intensity when the Kansas City Athletics baseball team moved to Oakland for the 1968 season.  Sports fans in the city of Kansas City had an axe to grind with the fans from the city of Oakland.  It did not hurt that the Chiefs and Raiders were the two best teams in the old American Football League.  In the 1969 expansion of Major League Baseball, Kansas City was awarded a new franchise, and it was placed in the same division as Oakland.

 

Back to the present.  The Raiders have awakened and won two games in a row by a combined score of 92-17.  Kansas City holds a 1 ½ game lead at 5-2.  This game means something again.

 

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
Bitmap NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	PPG	Opp
New York Giants	104.0	104.2	106.0	5-2-0	25.0	21.9
Philadelphia	102.9	102.4	103.6	4-3-0	24.6	22.4
Washington	98.2	99.8	99.7	4-4-0	19.4	21.3
Dallas	96.4	97.2	92.9	1-6-0	22.0	26.7
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	105.1	104.8	105.1	5-3-0	22.0	17.0
Minnesota	102.1	101.0	97.8	2-5-0	18.4	20.6
Chicago	98.1	100.0	100.4	4-3-0	18.0	16.3
Detroit	97.7	98.7	100.0	2-5-0	26.1	23.6
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Atlanta	103.8	103.8	105.3	5-2-0	24.1	19.0
New Orleans	102.8	101.9	103.5	5-3-0	20.9	18.5
Carolina	96.2	92.2	90.6	1-6-0	12.1	21.4
Tampa Bay	93.1	96.3	99.8	5-2-0	19.4	23.3
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco	97.1	95.4	96.8	2-6-0	17.1	22.3
Seattle	96.4	96.8	98.2	4-3-0	17.6	20.0
St. Louis	95.7	96.7	98.6	4-4-0	17.5	17.6
Arizona	92.8	94.7	92.3	3-4-0	19.0	28.3
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	108.1	106.3	106.0	5-2-0	22.7	15.7
New England	107.2	106.4	107.1	6-1-0	29.3	22.0
Miami	103.4	101.3	102.3	4-3-0	19.0	21.3
Buffalo	95.0	92.5	94.6	0-7-0	18.7	30.1
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	105.4	103.8	104.4	5-2-0	21.3	18.4
Pittsburgh	104.1	105.9	104.5	5-2-0	21.0	14.6
Cleveland	98.4	97.4	96.3	2-5-0	16.9	20.3
Cincinnati	98.2	97.7	94.5	2-5-0	20.9	23.3
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	106.6	105.9	106.2	5-2-0	23.3	17.9
Tennessee	103.2	106.1	103.2	5-3-0	28.0	18.8
Houston	98.8	99.4	99.8	4-3-0	21.9	23.9
Jacksonville	93.8	94.8	96.1	4-4-0	20.6	28.3
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego	101.8	100.9	100.1	3-5-0	26.3	21.8
Oakland	100.5	100.0	100.3	4-4-0	26.5	21.0
Kansas City	100.0	101.6	101.7	5-2-0	23.3	17.4
Denver	93.5	94.3	92.3	2-6-0	19.3	27.9

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 9: November 7-8, 2010
Vegas Line as of 4:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Chicago	BUFFALO	1.1	5.5	3.8	3	40 1/2
San Diego	HOUSTON	1.0	-0.5	-1.7	2 1/2	50
New Orleans	CAROLINA	4.6	7.7	10.9	7	42
MINNESOTA	Arizona	12.3	9.3	8.5	9	40 1/2
ATLANTA	Tampa Bay	13.7	10.5	8.5	9	44 1/2
New York Jets	DETROIT	6.4	3.6	2.0	4	41 1/2
BALTIMORE	Miami	4.0	4.5	4.1	5 1/2	40 1/2
New England	CLEVELAND	6.8	7.0	8.8	4 1/2	44
New York Giants	SEATTLE	3.6	3.4	3.8	5 1/2	41 1/2
OAKLAND	Kansas City	2.5	0.4	0.6	2 1/2	40 1/2
Indianapolis	PHILADELPHIA	1.7	1.5	0.6	-3	46 1/2
GREEN BAY	Dallas	11.7	10.6	15.2	7 1/2	45 1/2
Pittsburgh	CINCINNATI	1.9	4.2	6.0	4 1/2	41 1/2

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	6.7	0.00	121.5
Peyton Manning	IND	6.7	0.67	115.6
Vince Young	TEN	6.5	1.64	106.0
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.4	1.58	105.9
Josh Freeman	TB	5.5	1.34	103.0
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	7.1	2.44	102.3
Phillip Rivers	SD	6.7	2.29	101.4
Tom Brady	NE	5.7	1.78	100.3
Matt Cassel	KC	5.4	1.68	99.5
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	2.00	96.6
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.3	1.98	96.2
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	4.9	1.86	95.1
Chad Henne	MIA	5.3	2.46	92.0
Joe Flacco	BAL	5.3	2.54	91.3
Matt Schaub	HOU	5.3	2.55	91.2
Carson Palmer	CIN	5	2.48	90.2
Kevin Kolb	PHI	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	DAL	5.7	3.29	87.0
Donovan McNabb	WAS	4.9	2.89	86.0
Jason Campbell	OAK	4.9	2.90	85.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	4.7	2.84	85.3
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.3	3.35	84.2
Drew Brees	NO	5.1	3.32	83.3
Sam Bradford	STL	3.9	2.74	81.7
Kerry Collins	TEN	4.6	3.45	79.4
Shaun Hill	DET	4.4	3.37	79.0
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	3.7	2.97	78.6
Jay Cutler	CHI	4.8	3.87	76.8
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	4.3	3.92	73.6
Eli Manning	NYG	4.8	4.60	70.4
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	2.6	3.30	69.5
David Garrard	JAX	4.2	4.70	66.2
Derek Anderson	ARI	3.5	4.52	63.9
Brett Favre	MIN	3.8	5.21	59.4
Charlie Batch	PIT	3.7	6.12	50.8
Trent Edwards	JAX	1.4	5.26	45.5
Matt Moore	CAR	2.1	7.30	31.5
Max Hall	ARI	0.5	6.67	28.1
PiRate Passer Rating Formula
[((7* Air Yards Per Attempt [eliminates YAC]) – (11* Int.%)) +105] * 0.8   AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 8–October 31- November 1, 2010

Time For A Horse Or Two To Move Out Of The Pack 

This is the time of year where the eventual Super Bowl participants begin to kick it up a notch.  It doesn’t happen every season; for instance, we knew that New Orleans and Indianapolis were the class of the NFL last year from the second or third week.  However, in most seasons, somewhere around games five thru seven, a couple of teams begin to separate from the pack.  You don’t always realize it until the last quarter of the season.  A 3-3 team will go 5-1 to move to 8-4.  That team may still trail two or three teams in their conference.  While everybody else looks at the 10-2 teams, it is really the hot 8-4 team that is primed to win in the playoffs.

Which AFC teams appear to be peaking at this time?  The Jets, Steelers, Patriots, and Ravens are not peaking.  The Jets could turn out to be a great team that is going to “wire the field,” but we see two teams that look to be decent fits for this pattern.  Both happen to be in the same division.  The Indianapolis Colts may not be close to last year’s team in talent, but they are starting to play like a playoff winner.  The Tennessee Titans better fit this pattern.  They look like a team that could run off five or six wins in a row, after winning three in a row in impressive fashion.

Stranger things have happened in the past, so we must look at the Browns and Raiders at this point.  Both pulled off impressive victories on the road last week.  We are not saying they will run off five more in succession, but we must take a hard look at their games this week. 

In the NFC, the New York Giants clearly exhibit the pattern we are looking for.  The Seattle Seahawks are the other team to monitor for this possible scenario.  We think there is still going to be one other team that will break out from the pack in the next two weeks and begin to look like a playoff winner.  Philadelphia could be that team.

Beans On Bowl

This is the week for the annual game across the pond.  When San Francisco and Denver face off in London this weekend, it could set back global football relations for years.  Could we see a coaching dismissal made some point over the Atlantic Ocean on the return flight?  Even the blokes in Jolly Ole’ England know when somebody is trying to pull a fast one over them on the football field.

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	PPG	Opp
New York Giants	104.0	103.7	105.7	5-2-0	25.0	21.9
Philadelphia	102.9	102.0	102.1	4-3-0	24.6	22.4
Dallas	101.9	100.2	98.0	1-5-0	22.8	25.3
Washington	99.4	100.5	100.5	4-3-0	18.6	19.0
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	102.8	102.9	103.5	4-3-0	23.9	19.4
Minnesota	102.7	101.2	100.1	2-4-0	18.5	19.3
Chicago	98.1	100.0	99.0	4-3-0	18.0	16.3
Detroit	96.5	98.4	95.3	1-5-0	24.3	23.3
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Atlanta	103.8	103.3	104.4	5-2-0	24.1	19.0
New Orleans	101.4	99.9	101.4	4-3-0	21.0	19.7
Carolina	97.6	92.4	93.1	1-5-0	12.5	21.7
Tampa Bay	92.9	95.4	97.6	4-2-0	16.3	21.3
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Seattle	98.4	98.5	100.5	4-2-0	20.0	17.8
San Francisco	96.6	94.7	92.8	1-6-0	16.1	23.1
St. Louis	94.3	96.5	96.3	3-4-0	17.1	18.7
Arizona	93.0	95.6	95.3	3-3-0	16.3	26.7
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	110.4	107.4	109.5	5-1-0	26.5	16.8
New England	106.6	105.7	106.6	5-1-0	29.5	22.7
Miami	101.3	100.2	102.0	3-3-0	18.5	22.5
Buffalo	92.7	91.9	90.9	0-6-0	20.2	33.0
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Pittsburgh	105.5	107.6	107.4	5-1-0	22.8	13.7
Baltimore	105.4	104.0	104.8	5-2-0	21.3	18.4
Cincinnati	100.3	98.8	99.2	2-4-0	22.0	23.7
Cleveland	98.4	97.9	96.2	2-5-0	16.9	20.3
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Tennessee	105.3	107.9	106.8	5-2-0	28.4	16.7
Indianapolis	105.1	105.0	105.6	4-2-0	27.2	20.8
Houston	100.3	99.6	101.1	4-2-0	25.5	27.8
Jacksonville	90.8	92.6	91.8	3-4-0	18.6	29.9
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Kansas City	101.3	101.5	102.3	4-2-0	25.0	18.7
San Diego	99.7	100.4	98.2	2-5-0	25.3	21.3
Oakland	97.0	98.2	97.8	3-4-0	25.6	23.6
Denver	94.0	96.0	94.3	2-5-0	19.7	28.4

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 8: October 31-November 1, 2010
Vegas Line as of 3:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
San Francisco	Denver  (London)	2.6	-1.3	-1.5	Pk	42
DALLAS	Jacksonville	13.1	9.6	8.2	6 1/2	42 1/2
DETROIT	Washington	0.1	0.9	-2.2	2 1/2	44
NEW YORK JETS	Green Bay	9.6	6.5	8.0	6	42
Carolina	ST. LOUIS	0.3	-7.1	-6.2	3	37
CINCINNATI	Miami	1.0	0.6	-0.8	2	43 1/2
KANSAS CITY	Buffalo	11.6	12.6	14.4	7 1/2	44 1/2
Tennessee	SAN DIEGO	1.6	3.5	4.6	-4	44
ARIZONA	Tampa Bay	2.1	2.2	-0.3	3	39 1/2
OAKLAND	Seattle	0.6	1.7	-0.7	2 1/2	42
NEW ENGLAND	Minnesota	7.9	8.5	10.5	6	42 1/2
Pittsburgh	NEW ORLEANS	1.1	4.7	3.0	-1	44 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	Houston	7.8	8.4	7.5	5 1/2	49 1/2

 

PiRate QB Passer Ratings

Player	Team	AYPA	Int %	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	6.7	0.00	121.5
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	8.8	1.85	117.0
Peyton Manning	IND	6.9	0.79	115.7
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.3	1.45	106.5
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.1	1.13	102.6
Phillip Rivers	SD	6.7	2.22	102.0
Josh Freeman	TB	5.0	1.51	98.7
Matt Cassel	KC	5.5	1.96	97.5
Vince Young	TEN	5.4	1.98	96.8
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	2.00	96.6
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.3	1.98	96.2
Tom Brady	NE	5.3	2.02	95.9
Matt Schaub	HOU	5.7	2.54	93.6
Chad Henne	MIA	5.4	2.42	93.0
Carson Palmer	CIN	5.3	2.46	92.0
Joe Flacco	BAL	5.3	2.54	91.3
Kevin Kolb	PHI	4.9	2.61	88.4
Donovan McNabb	WAS	5.1	2.83	87.6
Tony Romo	DAL	5.7	3.29	87.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	5.4	3.13	86.7
Drew Brees	NO	5.1	3.48	81.9
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	4.1	2.94	81.1
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.4	3.83	80.5
Shaun Hill	DET	4.4	3.37	79.0
Sam Bradford	STL	3.7	3.08	77.6
Jay Cutler	CHI	4.8	3.87	76.8
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
Kerry Collins	TEN	4.8	4.17	74.2
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	4.3	3.92	73.6
Jason Campbell	OAK	3.6	3.60	72.4
Eli Manning	NYG	4.8	4.60	70.4
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	2.6	3.30	69.5
Derek Anderson	ARI	3.2	3.82	68.3
David Garrard	JAX	3.2	5.47	53.8
Brett Favre	MIN	3.3	5.59	53.3
Charlie Batch	PIT	3.7	6.12	50.8
Trent Edwards	JAX	1.4	5.26	45.5
Max Hall	ARI	0.9	5.08	44.3
Matt Moore	CAR	2.5	7.00	36.4

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It is the average pass yardage per attempt minus yards after catch.  This statistic is available at advancednflstats.com.