The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 27, 2021

PiRate Ratings–College Basketball 2021-22 Debut

Welcome bask to the PiRate Ratings College Basketball coverage for 2021-22. We are excited about a few new changes and the resumption of some old methods here this year. Today, we start our coverage with two posts. This one will include our initial ratings for the season of the 358 Division 1 teams. The post coming later today will include our opening Bracketology for the season.

Every week until Conference Tournament Championships commence, we plan on releasing updated ratings on Monday and Friday mornings (hopefully before Noon Eastern Time). We will issue updated Bracketology on Monday afternoons through Mid-February, at which time the updates will increase to two per week until March. Once the conference tournaments commence and surprise winners and losers emerge, we will begin to update the Bubble daily.

During the week, we will issue spreads of games between Power Conference teams. Because our method for coming up with game spreads is somewhat labor intensive and not 100% mechanical, it takes too long to calculate spreads on every game. Our method involves a game-specific home court advantage for each game, because when teams play more than once a week and fatigue must be adjusted for the road team in every game. Toss in the Covid issue, and home court advantage can move to 8-10 points. If the home team is in trouble, the visiting team might actually get points!

Also from time to time, we will issue commentary or analysis of the game. Our annual publication of top Low-Major and Mid-Major head coaches and top assistant coaches ready for the big time has been one of our most read annual publications, and because so many of the guys on our list are now coaching at big time schools, we expect this year’s edition will be expanded some. Expect that post in Mid-January.

By far our most read posts every year are our “Bracketnomic” reports for March Madness. We use technical data that has been back-tested for more than two decades, with some data back-tested to 1939, to attempt to isolate the true contenders for the National Championship. Baylor and Gonzaga were both on that list last year. Our own creation, The R+T Rating, has helped us locate favorites ripe for early NCAA Tournament upsets, and it has helped us locate sleeper teams that could surprise. In the past, we saw George Mason as a sleeper when they sneaked into the Final Four. We saw the same with Wichita State, Virginia Commonwealth, and Butler. But, there was a year where we not only picked 15-seed Florida Gulf Coast to upset 2-seed Georgetown, we said it could be by double digits. When FGCU ran the Hoyas into the ground that night, our ratings briefly received a national accolade, and many of you reading this today became subscribers to this site.

Without further adieu, here are our opening ratings for 2021-22. Thank you for stopping by. We hope you stick around for the season.

PiRate Ratings

#TeamPiRateConference
1Gonzaga122.6West Coast
2Baylor121.1Big 12
3Arizona120.7Pac-12
4Purdue120.3Big Ten
5Houston120.0American Athletic
6Kansas119.5Big 12
7Duke118.6Atlantic Coast
8LSU118.1Southeastern
9Tennessee117.9Southeastern
10UCLA117.5Pac-12
11Auburn117.4Southeastern
12Kentucky117.3Southeastern
13Illinois116.9Big Ten
14Alabama116.1Southeastern
15Villanova115.9Big East
16Ohio St.115.7Big Ten
17Michigan St.115.4Big Ten
18Michigan115.3Big Ten
19USC114.9Pac-12
20Texas Tech114.9Big 12
21Iowa114.8Big Ten
22Connecticut114.6Big East
23Texas114.5Big 12
24Xavier114.5Big East
25Seton Hall114.4Big East
26Virginia Tech113.8Atlantic Coast
27Florida113.6Southeastern
28Indiana113.3Big Ten
29Memphis113.3American Athletic
30Loyola Chicago113.1Missouri Valley
31BYU112.6West Coast
32Oklahoma112.3Big 12
33North Carolina112.0Atlantic Coast
34Colorado St.111.6Mountain West
35Florida St.111.6Atlantic Coast
36Wisconsin111.3Big Ten
37West Virginia111.3Big 12
38Arkansas111.2Southeastern
39San Francisco111.2West Coast
40Mississippi St.110.8Southeastern
41Clemson110.8Atlantic Coast
42Saint Mary’s110.8West Coast
43Northwestern110.8Big Ten
44Oklahoma St.110.7Big 12
45UAB110.5Conference USA
46San Diego St.110.0Mountain West
47Washington St.109.9Pac-12
48Louisville109.8Atlantic Coast
49Providence109.7Big East
50Iowa St.109.6Big 12
51Utah St.109.5Mountain West
52Maryland109.3Big Ten
53Boise St.109.1Mountain West
54UCF109.1American Athletic
55Belmont109.0Ohio Valley
56Oregon108.9Pac-12
57Creighton108.9Big East
58Davidson108.6Atlantic 10
59TCU108.5Big 12
60Richmond108.4Atlantic 10
61SMU108.4American Athletic
62Wichita St.108.4American Athletic
63Wake Forest108.2Atlantic Coast
64St. Bonaventure108.0Atlantic 10
65Murray St.107.9Ohio Valley
66Texas A&M107.8Southeastern
67Notre Dame107.8Atlantic Coast
68Minnesota107.7Big Ten
69Cincinnati107.7American Athletic
70Saint Louis107.6Atlantic 10
71St. John’s107.5Big East
72Utah107.5Pac-12
73DePaul107.4Big East
74Marquette107.4Big East
75Virginia107.3Atlantic Coast
76VCU107.3Atlantic 10
77Kansas St.107.2Big 12
78Syracuse107.2Atlantic Coast
79Rhode Island107.1Atlantic 10
80Buffalo107.1Mid-American
81South Dakota St.107.0Summit
82Penn St.107.0Big Ten
83Missouri St.107.0Missouri Valley
84Fresno St.106.9Mountain West
85Vanderbilt106.8Southeastern
86Wyoming106.7Mountain West
87Nevada106.7Mountain West
88Drake106.6Missouri Valley
89Iona106.6Metro Atlantic
90Colorado106.4Pac-12
91Santa Clara106.3West Coast
92Louisiana Tech105.8Conference USA
93Stanford105.7Pac-12
94Chattanooga105.7Southern
95Arizona St.105.7Pac-12
96Toledo105.7Mid-American
97South Carolina105.6Southeastern
98North Texas105.6Conference USA
99Ohio105.4Mid-American
100UC Irvine105.4Big West
101Vermont105.4America East
102Dayton105.3Atlantic 10
103Wofford105.2Southern
104Rutgers105.1Big Ten
105Miami FL105.0Atlantic Coast
106Mississippi104.8Southeastern
107Towson104.8Colonial Athletic
108New Mexico St.104.8Western Athletic
109Monmouth104.7Metro Atlantic
110N.C. State104.5Atlantic Coast
111Western Kentucky104.5Conference USA
112Georgia Tech104.4Atlantic Coast
113Wagner104.4Northeast
114Butler104.4Big East
115California104.3Pac-12
116Hofstra104.2Colonial Athletic
117Furman104.0Southern
118Abilene Christian103.9Western Athletic
119Grand Canyon103.7Western Athletic
120Northern Iowa103.7Missouri Valley
121Oakland103.5Horizon
122Georgetown103.5Big East
123Loyola Marymount103.2West Coast
124George Mason103.1Atlantic 10
125Utah Valley103.1Western Athletic
126UNLV102.9Mountain West
127Liberty102.7Atlantic Sun
128Boston College102.6Atlantic Coast
129Colgate102.6Patriot League
130Akron102.6Mid-American
131Southern Utah102.5Big Sky
132Princeton102.5Ivy League
133Navy102.4Patriot League
134Massachusetts102.2Atlantic 10
135Jacksonville St.102.2Atlantic Sun
136Southern Illinois102.1Missouri Valley
137UC Santa Barbara102.1Big West
138UC Riverside102.0Big West
139Nebraska101.9Big Ten
140Tulsa101.8American Athletic
141Oral Roberts101.6Summit
142James Madison101.5Colonial Athletic
143Weber St.101.5Big Sky
144Texas St.101.5Sun Belt
145Northeastern101.5Colonial Athletic
146Morehead St.101.5Ohio Valley
147Bradley101.4Missouri Valley
148Yale101.3Ivy League
149Miami OH101.3Mid-American
150Oregon St.101.2Pac-12
151Georgia St.101.2Sun Belt
152South Alabama101.1Sun Belt
153Cleveland St.101.1Horizon
154Marshall101.1Conference USA
155Kent St.101.0Mid-American
156Temple101.0American Athletic
157East Tennessee St.100.8Southern
158Boston University100.6Patriot League
159Stephen F. Austin100.6Western Athletic
160Bowling Green100.6Mid-American
161Delaware100.3Colonial Athletic
162Rice100.3Conference USA
163Washington100.3Pac-12
164Brown100.1Ivy League
165Missouri100.1Southeastern
166Eastern Kentucky100.1Atlantic Sun
167Tulane99.9American Athletic
168Pittsburgh99.9Atlantic Coast
169Appalachian St.99.9Sun Belt
170Coastal Carolina99.8Sun Belt
171Fairfield99.8Metro Atlantic
172Drexel99.6Colonial Athletic
173Harvard99.6Ivy League
174Florida Gulf Coast99.5Atlantic Sun
175Saint Joseph’s99.5Atlantic 10
176Texas Southern99.5Southwestern Athletic
177Georgia99.4Southeastern
178Montana St.99.4Big Sky
179Wright St.99.4Horizon
180North Dakota St.99.4Summit
181Charleston99.3Colonial Athletic
182Winthrop99.3Big South
183Seattle99.3Western Athletic
184UNC Greensboro99.2Southern
185UTEP99.2Conference USA
186East Carolina99.1American Athletic
187Longwood99.1Big South
188Old Dominion99.1Conference USA
189Tarleton St.99.1Western Athletic
190San Diego99.1West Coast
191Louisiana99.0Sun Belt
192Western Illinois98.9Summit
193Valparaiso98.9Missouri Valley
194Charlotte98.9Conference USA
195Duquesne98.8Atlantic 10
196Montana98.8Big Sky
197Indiana St.98.8Missouri Valley
198Campbell98.7Big South
199Middle Tennessee98.6Conference USA
200Niagara98.6Metro Atlantic
201New Hampshire98.5America East
202Cal St. Fullerton98.4Big West
203Northern Colorado98.3Big Sky
204Florida Atlantic98.2Conference USA
205Georgia Southern98.1Sun Belt
206Stony Brook98.1America East
207Cornell98.1Ivy League
208UC Davis98.0Big West
209Marist98.0Metro Atlantic
210Cal Baptist97.9Western Athletic
211UMass Lowell97.9America East
212Fordham97.8Atlantic 10
213Eastern Washington97.7Big Sky
214Detroit Mercy97.7Horizon
215UMKC97.6Summit
216Nicholls St.97.6Southland
217Mercer97.6Southern
218Northern Kentucky97.5Horizon
219Saint Peter’s97.5Metro Atlantic
220Jacksonville97.5Atlantic Sun
221Penn97.5Ivy League
222Louisiana Monroe97.5Sun Belt
223New Mexico97.5Mountain West
224Bellarmine97.5Atlantic Sun
225FIU97.4Conference USA
226Gardner Webb97.3Big South
227VMI97.2Southern
228Illinois St.97.1Missouri Valley
229Arkansas St.97.1Sun Belt
230Howard97.0Mideastern Athletic
231Sam Houston St.96.9Western Athletic
232Hawaii96.8Big West
233Bryant96.8Northeast
234Cal St. Bakersfield96.6Big West
235UMBC96.5America East
236Youngstown St.96.5Horizon
237South Florida96.5American Athletic
238Pepperdine96.4West Coast
239UNC Asheville96.2Big South
240Jackson St.96.1Southwestern Athletic
241Quinnipiac95.8Metro Atlantic
242Dartmouth95.8Ivy League
243UT Arlington95.8Sun Belt
244Pacific95.7West Coast
245Troy95.5Sun Belt
246South Dakota95.5Summit
247Samford95.4Southern
248La Salle95.4Atlantic 10
249Evansville95.3Missouri Valley
250UC San Diego95.3Big West
251The Citadel95.2Southern
252Portland St.95.1Big Sky
253Manhattan95.1Metro Atlantic
254St. Francis PA95.0Northeast
255Illinois Chicago95.0Horizon
256Norfolk St.94.9Mideastern Athletic
257Stetson94.9Atlantic Sun
258LIU94.9Northeast
259George Washington94.8Atlantic 10
260Southern94.8Southwestern Athletic
261Tennessee Tech94.4Ohio Valley
262Radford94.4Big South
263Milwaukee94.3Horizon
264Ball St.94.3Mid-American
265Merrimack94.2Northeast
266Portland94.2West Coast
267North Alabama94.1Atlantic Sun
268Purdue Fort Wayne94.0Horizon
269Kennesaw St.94.0Atlantic Sun
270Loyola MD93.9Patriot League
271Prairie View A&M93.8Southwestern Athletic
272High Point93.7Big South
273Lipscomb93.5Atlantic Sun
274Eastern Michigan93.5Mid-American
275Army93.4Patriot League
276NJIT93.4America East
277North Carolina A&T93.4Big South
278Long Beach St.93.4Big West
279San Jose St.93.3Mountain West
280Canisius93.3Metro Atlantic
281Austin Peay93.3Ohio Valley
282Presbyterian93.3Big South
283Texas A&M Corpus Chris93.2Southland
284Elon93.2Colonial Athletic
285Sacred Heart93.2Northeast
286North Florida93.1Atlantic Sun
287Hartford93.1America East
288UNC Wilmington93.0Colonial Athletic
289Albany93.0America East
290UT Rio Grande Valley92.9Western Athletic
291St. Thomas92.8Summit
292Siena92.7Metro Atlantic
293Air Force92.7Mountain West
294SIU Edwardsville92.5Ohio Valley
295Western Carolina92.5Southern
296Southern Miss92.4Conference USA
297Rider92.4Metro Atlantic
298Mount St. Mary’s92.4Northeast
299Cal Poly92.1Big West
300New Orleans92.1Southland
301Robert Morris92.0Horizon
302Dixie St.91.9Western Athletic
303Tennessee St.91.8Ohio Valley
304Cal St. Northridge91.8Big West
305Alcorn St.91.6Southwestern Athletic
306Lafayette91.5Patriot League
307Florida A&M91.5Southwestern Athletic
308Binghamton91.4America East
309Coppin St.91.2Mideastern Athletic
310Southeastern Louisiana91.1Southland
311Sacramento St.91.0Big Sky
312UTSA91.0Conference USA
313Bucknell90.9Patriot League
314Idaho St.90.7Big Sky
315Lamar90.7Western Athletic
316Green Bay90.7Horizon
317Little Rock90.7Sun Belt
318Northern Arizona90.6Big Sky
319McNeese St.90.4Southland
320St. Francis NY90.3Northeast
321Southeast Missouri St.90.2Ohio Valley
322North Carolina Central90.2Mideastern Athletic
323Morgan St.90.0Mideastern Athletic
324Northern Illinois89.7Mid-American
325American89.6Patriot League
326Lehigh89.4Patriot League
327Denver89.1Summit
328Maryland Eastern Shore88.9Mideastern Athletic
329USC Upstate88.8Big South
330Tennessee Martin88.6Ohio Valley
331Central Michigan88.6Mid-American
332Grambling St.88.5Southwestern Athletic
333Hampton88.4Big South
334Western Michigan88.3Mid-American
335Idaho88.1Big Sky
336Northwestern St.87.3Southland
337South Carolina St.87.2Mideastern Athletic
338Alabama A&M87.1Southwestern Athletic
339Central Connecticut86.9Northeast
340Nebraska Omaha86.9Summit
341William & Mary86.8Colonial Athletic
342Fairleigh Dickinson86.7Northeast
343Alabama St.86.7Southwestern Athletic
344North Dakota86.6Summit
345Holy Cross86.5Patriot League
346Bethune Cookman86.0Southwestern Athletic
347Columbia85.9Ivy League
348Central Arkansas85.5Atlantic Sun
349Charleston Southern85.2Big South
350Incarnate Word85.1Southland
351Houston Baptist84.7Southland
352Maine84.4America East
353Eastern Illinois84.3Ohio Valley
354Chicago St.82.7Western Athletic
355IUPUI82.6Horizon
356Arkansas Pine Bluff82.3Southwestern Athletic
357Delaware St.78.8Mideastern Athletic
358Mississippi Valley St.74.3Southwestern Athletic

PiRate Ratings Alphabetically

TeamPiRate
Abilene Christian103.9
Air Force92.7
Akron102.6
Alabama116.1
Alabama A&M87.1
Alabama St.86.7
Albany93.0
Alcorn St.91.6
American89.6
Appalachian St.99.9
Arizona120.7
Arizona St.105.7
Arkansas111.2
Arkansas Pine Bluff82.3
Arkansas St.97.1
Army93.4
Auburn117.4
Austin Peay93.3
Ball St.94.3
Baylor121.1
Bellarmine97.5
Belmont109.0
Bethune Cookman86.0
Binghamton91.4
Boise St.109.1
Boston College102.6
Boston University100.6
Bowling Green100.6
Bradley101.4
Brown100.1
Bryant96.8
Bucknell90.9
Buffalo107.1
Butler104.4
BYU112.6
Cal Baptist97.9
Cal Poly92.1
Cal St. Bakersfield96.6
Cal St. Fullerton98.4
Cal St. Northridge91.8
California104.3
Campbell98.7
Canisius93.3
Central Arkansas85.5
Central Connecticut86.9
Central Michigan88.6
Charleston99.3
Charleston Southern85.2
Charlotte98.9
Chattanooga105.7
Chicago St.82.7
Cincinnati107.7
Clemson110.8
Cleveland St.101.1
Coastal Carolina99.8
Colgate102.6
Colorado106.4
Colorado St.111.6
Columbia85.9
Connecticut114.6
Coppin St.91.2
Cornell98.1
Creighton108.9
Dartmouth95.8
Davidson108.6
Dayton105.3
Delaware100.3
Delaware St.78.8
Denver89.1
DePaul107.4
Detroit Mercy97.7
Dixie St.91.9
Drake106.6
Drexel99.6
Duke118.6
Duquesne98.8
East Carolina99.1
East Tennessee St.100.8
Eastern Illinois84.3
Eastern Kentucky100.1
Eastern Michigan93.5
Eastern Washington97.7
Elon93.2
Evansville95.3
Fairfield99.8
Fairleigh Dickinson86.7
FIU97.4
Florida113.6
Florida A&M91.5
Florida Atlantic98.2
Florida Gulf Coast99.5
Florida St.111.6
Fordham97.8
Fresno St.106.9
Furman104.0
Gardner Webb97.3
George Mason103.1
George Washington94.8
Georgetown103.5
Georgia99.4
Georgia Southern98.1
Georgia St.101.2
Georgia Tech104.4
Gonzaga122.6
Grambling St.88.5
Grand Canyon103.7
Green Bay90.7
Hampton88.4
Hartford93.1
Harvard99.6
Hawaii96.8
High Point93.7
Hofstra104.2
Holy Cross86.5
Houston120.0
Houston Baptist84.7
Howard97.0
Idaho88.1
Idaho St.90.7
Illinois116.9
Illinois Chicago95.0
Illinois St.97.1
Incarnate Word85.1
Indiana113.3
Indiana St.98.8
Iona106.6
Iowa114.8
Iowa St.109.6
IUPUI82.6
Jackson St.96.1
Jacksonville97.5
Jacksonville St.102.2
James Madison101.5
Kansas119.5
Kansas St.107.2
Kennesaw St.94.0
Kent St.101.0
Kentucky117.3
La Salle95.4
Lafayette91.5
Lamar90.7
Lehigh89.4
Liberty102.7
Lipscomb93.5
Little Rock90.7
LIU94.9
Long Beach St.93.4
Longwood99.1
Louisiana99.0
Louisiana Monroe97.5
Louisiana Tech105.8
Louisville109.8
Loyola Chicago113.1
Loyola Marymount103.2
Loyola MD93.9
LSU118.1
Maine84.4
Manhattan95.1
Marist98.0
Marquette107.4
Marshall101.1
Maryland109.3
Maryland Eastern Shore88.9
Massachusetts102.2
McNeese St.90.4
Memphis113.3
Mercer97.6
Merrimack94.2
Miami FL105.0
Miami OH101.3
Michigan115.3
Michigan St.115.4
Middle Tennessee98.6
Milwaukee94.3
Minnesota107.7
Mississippi104.8
Mississippi St.110.8
Mississippi Valley St.74.3
Missouri100.1
Missouri St.107.0
Monmouth104.7
Montana98.8
Montana St.99.4
Morehead St.101.5
Morgan St.90.0
Mount St. Mary’s92.4
Murray St.107.9
N.C. State104.5
Navy102.4
Nebraska101.9
Nebraska Omaha86.9
Nevada106.7
New Hampshire98.5
New Mexico97.5
New Mexico St.104.8
New Orleans92.1
Niagara98.6
Nicholls St.97.6
NJIT93.4
Norfolk St.94.9
North Alabama94.1
North Carolina112.0
North Carolina A&T93.4
North Carolina Central90.2
North Dakota86.6
North Dakota St.99.4
North Florida93.1
North Texas105.6
Northeastern101.5
Northern Arizona90.6
Northern Colorado98.3
Northern Illinois89.7
Northern Iowa103.7
Northern Kentucky97.5
Northwestern110.8
Northwestern St.87.3
Notre Dame107.8
Oakland103.5
Ohio105.4
Ohio St.115.7
Oklahoma112.3
Oklahoma St.110.7
Old Dominion99.1
Oral Roberts101.6
Oregon108.9
Oregon St.101.2
Pacific95.7
Penn97.5
Penn St.107.0
Pepperdine96.4
Pittsburgh99.9
Portland94.2
Portland St.95.1
Prairie View A&M93.8
Presbyterian93.3
Princeton102.5
Providence109.7
Purdue120.3
Purdue Fort Wayne94.0
Quinnipiac95.8
Radford94.4
Rhode Island107.1
Rice100.3
Richmond108.4
Rider92.4
Robert Morris92.0
Rutgers105.1
Sacramento St.91.0
Sacred Heart93.2
Saint Joseph’s99.5
Saint Louis107.6
Saint Mary’s110.8
Saint Peter’s97.5
Sam Houston St.96.9
Samford95.4
San Diego99.1
San Diego St.110.0
San Francisco111.2
San Jose St.93.3
Santa Clara106.3
Seattle99.3
Seton Hall114.4
Siena92.7
SIU Edwardsville92.5
SMU108.4
South Alabama101.1
South Carolina105.6
South Carolina St.87.2
South Dakota95.5
South Dakota St.107.0
South Florida96.5
Southeast Missouri St.90.2
Southeastern Louisiana91.1
Southern94.8
Southern Illinois102.1
Southern Miss92.4
Southern Utah102.5
St. Bonaventure108.0
St. Francis NY90.3
St. Francis PA95.0
St. John’s107.5
St. Thomas92.8
Stanford105.7
Stephen F. Austin100.6
Stetson94.9
Stony Brook98.1
Syracuse107.2
Tarleton St.99.1
TCU108.5
Temple101.0
Tennessee117.9
Tennessee Martin88.6
Tennessee St.91.8
Tennessee Tech94.4
Texas114.5
Texas A&M107.8
Texas A&M Corpus Chris93.2
Texas Southern99.5
Texas St.101.5
Texas Tech114.9
The Citadel95.2
Toledo105.7
Towson104.8
Troy95.5
Tulane99.9
Tulsa101.8
UAB110.5
UC Davis98.0
UC Irvine105.4
UC Riverside102.0
UC San Diego95.3
UC Santa Barbara102.1
UCF109.1
UCLA117.5
UMass Lowell97.9
UMBC96.5
UMKC97.6
UNC Asheville96.2
UNC Greensboro99.2
UNC Wilmington93.0
UNLV102.9
USC114.9
USC Upstate88.8
UT Arlington95.8
UT Rio Grande Valley92.9
Utah107.5
Utah St.109.5
Utah Valley103.1
UTEP99.2
UTSA91.0
Valparaiso98.9
Vanderbilt106.8
VCU107.3
Vermont105.4
Villanova115.9
Virginia107.3
Virginia Tech113.8
VMI97.2
Wagner104.4
Wake Forest108.2
Washington100.3
Washington St.109.9
Weber St.101.5
West Virginia111.3
Western Carolina92.5
Western Illinois98.9
Western Kentucky104.5
Western Michigan88.3
Wichita St.108.4
William & Mary86.8
Winthrop99.3
Wisconsin111.3
Wofford105.2
Wright St.99.4
Wyoming106.7
Xavier114.5
Yale101.3
Youngstown St.96.5

PiRate Ratings By Conference

America East
TeamRating
Vermont105.4
New Hampshire98.5
Stony Brook98.1
UMass Lowell97.9
UMBC96.5
NJIT93.4
Hartford93.1
Albany93.0
Binghamton91.4
Maine84.4

American Athletic
TeamRating
Houston120.0
Memphis113.3
UCF109.1
SMU108.4
Wichita St.108.4
Cincinnati107.7
Tulsa101.8
Temple101.0
Tulane99.9
East Carolina99.1
South Florida96.5

Atlantic 10
TeamRating
Davidson108.6
Richmond108.4
St. Bonaventure108.0
Saint Louis107.6
VCU107.3
Rhode Island107.1
Dayton105.3
George Mason103.1
Massachusetts102.2
Saint Joseph’s99.5
Duquesne98.8
Fordham97.8
La Salle95.4
George Washington94.8

Atlantic Coast
TeamRating
Duke118.6
Virginia Tech113.8
North Carolina112.0
Florida St.111.6
Clemson110.8
Louisville109.8
Wake Forest108.2
Notre Dame107.8
Virginia107.3
Syracuse107.2
Miami FL105.0
N.C. State104.5
Georgia Tech104.4
Boston College102.6
Pittsburgh99.9

Atlantic Sun
TeamRating
Liberty102.7
Jacksonville St.102.2
Eastern Kentucky100.1
Florida Gulf Coast99.5
Jacksonville97.5
Bellarmine97.5
Stetson94.9
North Alabama94.1
Kennesaw St.94.0
Lipscomb93.5
North Florida93.1
Central Arkansas85.5

Big 12
TeamRating
Baylor121.1
Kansas119.5
Texas Tech114.9
Texas114.5
Oklahoma112.3
West Virginia111.3
Oklahoma St.110.7
Iowa St.109.6
TCU108.5
Kansas St.107.2

Big East
TeamRating
Villanova115.9
Connecticut114.6
Xavier114.5
Seton Hall114.4
Providence109.7
Creighton108.9
St. John’s107.5
DePaul107.4
Marquette107.4
Butler104.4
Georgetown103.5

Big Sky
TeamRating
Southern Utah102.5
Weber St.101.5
Montana St.99.4
Montana98.8
Northern Colorado98.3
Eastern Washington97.7
Portland St.95.1
Sacramento St.91.0
Idaho St.90.7
Northern Arizona90.6
Idaho88.1

Big South
TeamRating
Winthrop99.3
Longwood99.1
Campbell98.7
Gardner Webb97.3
UNC Asheville96.2
Radford94.4
High Point93.7
North Carolina A&T93.4
Presbyterian93.3
USC Upstate88.8
Hampton88.4
Charleston Southern85.2

Big Ten
TeamRating
Purdue120.3
Illinois116.9
Ohio St.115.7
Michigan St.115.4
Michigan115.3
Iowa114.8
Indiana113.3
Wisconsin111.3
Northwestern110.8
Maryland109.3
Minnesota107.7
Penn St.107.0
Rutgers105.1
Nebraska101.9

Big West
TeamRating
UC Irvine105.4
UC Santa Barbara102.1
UC Riverside102.0
Cal St. Fullerton98.4
UC Davis98.0
Hawaii96.8
Cal St. Bakersfield96.6
UC San Diego95.3
Long Beach St.93.4
Cal Poly92.1
Cal St. Northridge91.8

Colonial Athletic
TeamRating
Towson104.8
Hofstra104.2
James Madison101.5
Northeastern101.5
Delaware100.3
Drexel99.6
Charleston99.3
Elon93.2
UNC Wilmington93.0
William & Mary86.8

Conference USA
TeamRating
UAB110.5
Louisiana Tech105.8
North Texas105.6
Western Kentucky104.5
Marshall101.1
Rice100.3
UTEP99.2
Old Dominion99.1
Charlotte98.9
Middle Tennessee98.6
Florida Atlantic98.2
FIU97.4
Southern Miss92.4
UTSA91.0

Horizon
TeamRating
Oakland103.5
Cleveland St.101.1
Wright St.99.4
Detroit Mercy97.7
Northern Kentucky97.5
Youngstown St.96.5
Illinois Chicago95.0
Milwaukee94.3
Purdue Fort Wayne94.0
Robert Morris92.0
Green Bay90.7
IUPUI82.6

Ivy League
TeamRating
Princeton102.5
Yale101.3
Brown100.1
Harvard99.6
Cornell98.1
Penn97.5
Dartmouth95.8
Columbia85.9

Metro Atlantic
TeamRating
Iona106.6
Monmouth104.7
Fairfield99.8
Niagara98.6
Marist98.0
Saint Peter’s97.5
Quinnipiac95.8
Manhattan95.1
Canisius93.3
Siena92.7
Rider92.4


Mid-American
TeamRating
Buffalo107.1
Toledo105.7
Ohio105.4
Akron102.6
Miami OH101.3
Kent St.101.0
Bowling Green100.6
Ball St.94.3
Eastern Michigan93.5
Northern Illinois89.7
Central Michigan88.6
Western Michigan88.3

Mideastern Athletic
TeamRating
Howard97.0
Norfolk St.94.9
Coppin St.91.2
North Carolina Central90.2
Morgan St.90.0
Maryland Eastern Shore88.9
South Carolina St.87.2
Delaware St.78.8

Missouri Valley
TeamRating
Loyola Chicago113.1
Missouri St.107.0
Drake106.6
Northern Iowa103.7
Southern Illinois102.1
Bradley101.4
Valparaiso98.9
Indiana St.98.8
Illinois St.97.1
Evansville95.3

Mountain West
TeamRating
Colorado St.111.6
San Diego St.110.0
Utah St.109.5
Boise St.109.1
Fresno St.106.9
Wyoming106.7
Nevada106.7
UNLV102.9
New Mexico97.5
San Jose St.93.3
Air Force92.7

Northeast
TeamRating
Wagner104.4
Bryant96.8
St. Francis PA95.0
LIU94.9
Merrimack94.2
Sacred Heart93.2
Mount St. Mary’s92.4
St. Francis NY90.3
Central Connecticut86.9
Fairleigh Dickinson86.7

Ohio Valley
TeamRating
Belmont109.0
Murray St.107.9
Morehead St.101.5
Tennessee Tech94.4
Austin Peay93.3
SIU Edwardsville92.5
Tennessee St.91.8
Southeast Missouri St.90.2
Tennessee Martin88.6
Eastern Illinois84.3

Pac-12
TeamRating
Arizona120.7
UCLA117.5
USC114.9
Washington St.109.9
Oregon108.9
Utah107.5
Colorado106.4
Stanford105.7
Arizona St.105.7
California104.3
Oregon St.101.2
Washington100.3

Patriot League
TeamRating
Colgate102.6
Navy102.4
Boston University100.6
Loyola MD93.9
Army93.4
Lafayette91.5
Bucknell90.9
American89.6
Lehigh89.4
Holy Cross86.5

Southeastern
TeamRating
LSU118.1
Tennessee117.9
Auburn117.4
Kentucky117.3
Alabama116.1
Florida113.6
Arkansas111.2
Mississippi St.110.8
Texas A&M107.8
Vanderbilt106.8
South Carolina105.6
Mississippi104.8
Missouri100.1
Georgia99.4

Southern
TeamRating
Chattanooga105.7
Wofford105.2
Furman104.0
East Tennessee St.100.8
UNC Greensboro99.2
Mercer97.6
VMI97.2
Samford95.4
The Citadel95.2
Western Carolina92.5

Southland
TeamRating
Nicholls St.97.6
Texas A&M Corpus Chris93.2
New Orleans92.1
Southeastern Louisiana91.1
McNeese St.90.4
Northwestern St.87.3
Incarnate Word85.1
Houston Baptist84.7

Southwestern Athletic
TeamRating
Texas Southern99.5
Jackson St.96.1
Southern94.8
Prairie View A&M93.8
Alcorn St.91.6
Florida A&M91.5
Grambling St.88.5
Alabama A&M87.1
Alabama St.86.7
Bethune Cookman86.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff82.3
Mississippi Valley St.74.3

Summit
TeamRating
South Dakota St.107.0
Oral Roberts101.6
North Dakota St.99.4
Western Illinois98.9
UMKC97.6
South Dakota95.5
St. Thomas92.8
Denver89.1
Nebraska Omaha86.9
North Dakota86.6

Sun Belt
TeamRating
Texas St.101.5
Georgia St.101.2
South Alabama101.1
Appalachian St.99.9
Coastal Carolina99.8
Louisiana99.0
Georgia Southern98.1
Louisiana Monroe97.5
Arkansas St.97.1
UT Arlington95.8
Troy95.5
Little Rock90.7

West Coast
TeamRating
Gonzaga122.6
BYU112.6
San Francisco111.2
Saint Mary’s110.8
Santa Clara106.3
Loyola Marymount103.2
San Diego99.1
Pepperdine96.4
Pacific95.7
Portland94.2

Western Athletic
TeamRating
New Mexico St.104.8
Abilene Christian103.9
Grand Canyon103.7
Utah Valley103.1
Stephen F. Austin100.6
Seattle99.3
Tarleton St.99.1
Cal Baptist97.9
Sam Houston St.96.9
UT Rio Grande Valley92.9
Dixie St.91.9
Lamar90.7
Chicago St.82.7

June 20, 2017

The PiRate Ratings Are Hard At Work

Welcome back gridiron fans.  The PiRates are back at sea working hard on getting their treasure for the 2017-18 season.

There will be a few tweaks to the formulas this season as we refine our ratings to make them as accurate as possible, and we are excited about it.

Tweak #1: Our first tweak involves increasing the alteration of each college football teams’ rate of adjustment as it applies to depth concerns.  If a team is stacked two-deep with talent, they should be able to endure a long, hard season.  But, if the team is only good in their starting lineup, and they lack the depth, they will weaken as the season goes on.  Consider two teams, State and Tech.  State and Tech are about equal in talent in their starting lineups, and on August 25, they are exactly the same in power rating.  For the sake of argument, let’s say they both look like 9-3 teams in a power 5 conference and have identical ratings of 118.0.

In the month of September, State and Tech both go 4-0 over similar competition, and their statistics show that they are still basically the same in talent and results.  Both teams ratings go up, but State’s go up a tad more than Tech’s, due to the depth issue.  Through four games, it won’t be all that much, and now on the First Monday in October, State is now 122.5, and Tech is 121.8.

In October, State and Tech both go 3-1 to sit at 7-1 with four games to go.  Both teams have lost some key players by now, but State has plugged in able second-teamers to fill the spots, while Tech has been forced to go with talent not up to Power 5 conference standards.  State’s wins have been a little easier, and their loss was much closer than Tech’s wins and loss.  Now, State has a rating of 123.1, while Tech has fallen a bit to 119.5.

In November, State finishes strong, going 3-1 to finish the regular season at 10-2.  Tech falters going 1-3 to finish 8-4.

We see this every year.  We believe we can factor in this depth issue into our ratings before the season begins, and we can adjust the rate of adjustment during the season as a team sees key players leave the lineup.  It also works in reverse; a team may have a blessing of several new underclassmen beginning to contribute.

Look at Georgia in 1980.  Hershel Walker was a true freshman.  In the second half of the season opener against Tennessee, Coach Vince Dooley inserted Walker into the game with the Bulldogs trailing by double-digits, and Walker turned the game around in his first 10 carries.  Georgia won the game, and Walker led the Bulldogs to an undefeated National Championship.  Had this new twist of our ratings been in effect then, The Bulldogs might have improved by an unprecedented 10 points between game one and game two.  As it was then, it took several weeks until Georgia’s rating really reflected their power, all because of one freshman.

This can just as easily happen to an average team that loses a couple of key players.  There have been instances when a team has lost a dozen key players by the end of October.  If it is Alabama, the Crimson Tide might be five points weaker than they would have been with the dozen players still healthy.  But, if it is Iowa State, the Cyclones might be 15 points weaker with the loss of these dozen players.

Going back to the unexpected bonanza, what if a team has five or six redshirt freshmen that have displaced upperclassmen in the starting lineup?  Obviously, this team must now be better talent-wise if starters have been replaced  (unless the coach has thrown in the towel on the season and is looking to the future).  What started as a so-so season may continue as a better season because the surprising advancement of the freshmen has made this team a touchdown better than it was earlier in the season.

The PiRate Ratings will adjust for this during the season by increasing or decreasing the adjustment rate of the teams after each Saturday.  Because the PiRate Ratings always show a total average of 100.0, that means teams might lose ground in the ratings after a good game, because other teams now earn more bonus for their play on the field.  It will be a work in progress, but in the end, we believe it will lead to more accurate ratings.

 

Tweak #2: Our basketball ratings have always been Four Factors-based.  We have three different algorithms using the Four Factors Data.  Football also has its factors.  In fact, in football, there are five factors.  They are, in order of importance: Explosiveness, Efficiency, Field Position, Finishing Drives, and Turnovers.   You can find excellent content online about these factors–some explain in detail like a thesis, while others give you a quick outline.

For our purposes, we have changed how we use the box scores of the games in our updating formula.  We will look more at Explosiveness and Efficiency when we update the teams’ ratings every week.  Additionally, we will keep an unpublished running score on how consistent teams are in being able to move the ball and stop the movement of the other team.  Which leads us to our big breakthrough for 2017-18.

Big Breakthrough

Have you ever noticed that over the course of an era, a team may celebrate a national championship or conference championship when they appear to not be as good as prior teams or soon see future teams that look better but do not win the championship?  You have probably seen that a really good team goes 10-2 or 11-1 and demolishes most of their opponents but suffered a terrible upset.  Then, that team runs the table but wins most of their games by nice amounts but by no means blowouts.

Think of a team that wins 55-17 and 38-10 or something similar for most of the season and then falls 31-27 to a mediocre team.  This team leads the nation in total offense or scoring defense, but they always fall a game short of the accomplishment.  But, then along comes a season where this school wins 31-20, 27-14 or something similar and runs the table.  They finish well down in total offense and near the top in scoring defense, but they go undefeated.

We have seen this happen multiple times in the last 30 years.  The dominating team is not as consistent as the team that went undefeated, and in three out of 10 games, the less consistent power may be two touchdowns better than the undefeated champion.  However, 70% of the time, the undefeated champion will be better than the dominating team.

The PiRates have tried to assign value or lack of value to the consistency of a team, but this is something that takes a good sampling of games.  This adjustment will be used in November after all teams have played 2/3 of their regular season schedule.  By then, we should have a grasp of what teams are staying consistent, and what teams are all over the map.  We will not adjust their ratings, because you never know if your inconsistent team will deviate 14 points above their rating or 14 points below.  What we will do is search for consistency when we select our Money Line plays.  We might be crazy, because we are coming off two consecutive profitable Money Line seasons (just for fun and not real wagering), so we might be cutting off our noses to spite our faces.

Enjoy your summer.  Football season will be here before you know it.  The PiRates are actually ahead of schedule this year with their college football updates, and we should have enough time to expand our preseason coverage this year.

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