2015 NFC West Preview

One ill-advised pass is all that apparently separates the Seattle Seahawks from trying for a three-peat at Super Bowl 50.  Maybe, Russell Wilson should have kept an air pump needle in his sleeve and deflated the football a little, and the New England Patriots would not be the defending Super Bowl Champs.

All kidding aside, the Seahawks on paper look like the class of the NFC once again.  However, their job in the NFC West is not going to be easy with maybe the second best team in the conference also playing in the division.  Arizona might have earned the overall number one seed in the NFC last year had Carson Palmer not gone down to injury after the Cardinals began the season 9-1.

The St. Louis Rams face a season on the brink this year in more than one way.  Will they pull up roots and move back to where they once belonged in Los Angeles?  Will the acquisition of Nick Foles give the offense a consistent quarterback.  Will Jeff Fisher keep his job?  It will be an interesting season in the Gateway to the West.

San Francisco is a team under the radar.  The 49ers start over with a new coach in Jim Tomsula with a different offensive philosophy than outgoing coach Jim Harbaugh, a new starting running back, a new number one receiver, and four new defensive starters.  The team with the best won-loss record over a three-year period of 2011-13 fell to 8-8 last year, and where they go this year is a mystery.  The PiRates say the team will take on water in 2015.

 

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Cardinals Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Larry Fitzgerald
WR	Michael Floyd
TE	Darren Fells
TE	Ifeanyi Momah
LT	Jared Veldheer
LG	Ted Larsen
C	A. Q. Shipley
RG	Jonathan Cooper
RT	Bobby Massie/D. J. Humphries
QB	Carson Palmer
HB	Andre Ellington
FB	(NONE)
Defense
DE	Calais Campbell
NT	Rodney Gunter
DT	Frostee Rucker
LB	Lorenzo Alexander
LB	Kevin Minter
LB	Sean Weatherspoon
LB	Alex Okafor
CB	Patrick Peterson
S	Tony Jefferson
S	Tyrann Mathieu
CB	Justin Bethel
N5	Deone Bucannon
Special
Kicker	Chandler Catanzaro
Punter	Dave Zastudil
KR	Brittan Golden
PR	Brittan Golden

Arizona Cardinals
Head Coach	Bruce Arians
Off. Coordinator	Harold Goodwin
Def. Coordinator	James Bettcher
2014 W-L-T	11-5-0
Pts	19.4
Opp	18.7
Ratings
PiRate	101.3
Mean	100.5
Bias	101.3
Average	101.0
Grades
Running	C-
Passing	B
Vs. Run	B-
Vs. Pass	B-
Special Teams	C+
Coaching + Intangibles	B
Predicted W-L	10-6-0
Division Rank	2
Conference Rank	6
Overall Rank	12
Postseason	Yes

ST. LOUIS RAMS

Rams Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Kenny Britt
WR	Tavon Austin
WR	Stedman Bailey/Brian Quick
TE	Jared Cook
LT	Greg Robinson
LG	Rodger Saffold
C	Barrett Jones
RG	Jamon Brown
RT	Rob Havenstein
QB	Nick Foles
HB	Tre Mason
FB/TE	Lance Kendricks
Defense
DE	Chris Long
DT	Aaron Donald
DT	Michael Brockers
DE	Robert Quinn
LB	Jo-Lonn Dunbar
LB	James Laurinaitis
LB	Alec Ogletree
CB	Trumaine Johnson
S	T. J. McDonald
S	Rodney McLeod
CB	Janoris Jenkins
N5	Lamarcus Joyner
Special
Kicker	Greg Zuerlein
Punter	Johnny Hekker
KR	Benny Cunningham
PR	Tavon Austin

St. Louis Rams
Head Coach	Jeff Fisher
Off. Coordinator	Dave McGinnis
Def. Coordinator	Gregg Williams
2014 W-L-T	6-10-0
Pts	20.3
Opp	22.1
Ratings
PiRate	95.9
Mean	98.6
Bias	95.0
Average	96.5
Grades
Running	D
Passing	C+
Vs. Run	A
Vs. Pass	B-
Special Teams	B
Coaching + Intangibles	B
Predicted W-L	7-9-0
Division Rank	4
Conference Rank	12
Overall Rank	24
Postseason	No

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

49ers Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Torrey Smith
WR	Anquan Bolden
WR	Quinton Patton
TE	Vernon Davis
LT	Joe Staley
LG	Alex Boone
C	Joe Looney
RG	Marcus Martin
RT	Erik Pears
QB	Colin Kaepernick
HB	Carlos Hyde
FB	Bruce Miller
Defense
DT	Glenn Dorsey
NT	Ian Williams
DT	Quinton Dial
LB	Ahmad Brooks/Eli Harold
LB	Nick Moody
LB	NaVorro Bowman
LB	Corey Lemonier
CB	Tramaine Brock
S	Antoine Bethea
S	Eric Reid
CB	Shareece Wright/Keith Reaser
N5	Dontae Johnson
Special
Kicker	Phil Dawson
Punter	Bradley Pinion
KR	Reggie Bush
PR	Reggie Bush

San Francisco 49ers
Head Coach	Jim Tomsula
Off. Coordinator	Geep Chryst
Def. Coordinator	Eric Mangini
2014 W-L-T	8-8-0
Pts	19.1
Opp	21.3
Ratings
PiRate	99.3
Mean	96.9
Bias	99.1
Average	98.4
Grades
Running	A-
Passing	B
Vs. Run	C+
Vs. Pass	C
Special Teams	C
Coaching + Intangibles	D
Predicted W-L	6-10-0
Division Rank	3
Conference Rank	11
Overall Rank	21
Postseason	No

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Seahawks Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Doug Baldwin
WR	Jermaine Kearse
WR	Ricardo Lockette
TE	Jimmy Graham
LT	Russell Okung
LG	Justin Britt
C	Drew Nowak
RG	J. R. Sweezy/Alvin Bailey
RT	Gary Gilliam
QB	Russell Wilson
HB	Marshawn Lynch
FB	Derrick Coleman
Defense
DE	Michael Bennett
DT	Ahtyba Rubin
DT	Brandon Mebane
DE	Cliff Avril
LB	Bruce Irvin
LB	Bobby Wagner
LB	K. J. Wright
CB	Richard Sherman
S	Dion Bailey
S	Earl Thomas
CB	Cary Williams
N5	Tye Smith
Special
Kicker	Steven Hauschka
Punter	Jon Ryan
KR	Tyler Lockett
PR	Tyler Lockett

Seattle Seahawks
Head Coach	Pete Carroll
Off. Coordinator	Darell Bevell
Def. Coordinator	Kris Richard
2014 W-L-T	12-4-0
Pts	24.6
Opp	15.9
Ratings
PiRate	107.8
Mean	106.9
Bias	108.0
Average	107.6
Grades
Running	B+
Passing	B+
Vs. Run	A-
Vs. Pass	A
Special Teams	B+
Coaching + Intangibles	A
Predicted W-L	11-5-0
Division Rank	1
Conference Rank	2
Overall Rank	3
Postseason	Yes

 

Pirate Ratings–Super Bowl Special

The PiRates have been a little occupied in the last fortnight with familial health issues, and we were not able to go to sea to our secret island where we gain the information to find out booty.

 

In real terms, multiple geriatric relatives needed special TLC, so we could not get to the university computer where we have access to simulations.

 

Here is how our three ratings see this game.

 

N F C	A F C	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Seattle	Denver	-0.5	-0.4	-0.5

 

Here is how we see the game based on studying the units on both sides.

 

When Denver has the ball:

 

The Broncos’ offensive line is A+ in pass protection and B+ in creating running holes.  The Seahawks defensive line and linebackers are A+ in pass rush and A- in stopping the run.  We give a slight edge here to the Seahawks.

 

The Broncos’ receivers and the Seahawks’ secondary are close to even.  Denver’s receivers get a little better grade because of the A++ quarterback, but overall we will call this one a push.

 

Peyton Manning added to the passing attack gives Denver a slight advantage against Seattle’s pass defense.

 

Knowshon Moreno may not be 100%, and Montee Ball is a considerable drop in talent for the Broncos’ running game.  Seattle gets a slight advantage here.

 

When Seattle has the ball:

 

The Seahawks’ offensve line gets an A- in pass protection and a B+ in creating running holes.  Denver’s defensive line and linebackers get an A in pass rush and a B in stopping the run.  Russell Wilson may have to scramble more than average, but the Seahawks might be able to control the clock and sustain drives with key gains on the ground.

 

The Seahawks’ receivers are clear and away superior to the Broncos’ makeshift secondary.  Without a potent pass rush and terrific blitz package for this game, Denver will have trouble stopping Seattle from completing short passes and stretching the field horizontally.  Seattle receives the largest advantage of the game here.

 

Wilson may not have a field day passing, and he might have to run the ball a couple times to shake the Denver pass defense, but his job will be easier than Manning’s job.

 

Marshawn Lynch may not have a John Riggins type game, but if he converts a bushel of first downs in short yardage situations and breaks open just one run, it may be enough to bring a Lombardi Trophy to King County.

 

Special Teams: If it comes down to a field goal, nobody is better than Denver’s Matt Prater.  However, this site notoriously has swirling winds, and the wind could make kicking an interesting propostion.

 

Our “Expert” Opinion—Seattle and Denver were definitely the two best teams in the NFL this season, and it should be a quite memorable Super Bowl, similar to the Indianapolis-New Orleans Super Bowl.

 

Seattle has been credited with being a terror at home and just good on the road, but the statistics paint a different story.  The Seahawks are just plain great no matter where the game is played.

 

Don’t believe for a second that we think this is a mismatch.  Yes, as you can read, we have the Seahawks favored to win the game with about a 60-65% chance of the outcome.  If you are the type to throw away your hard-earned income, the smart play would be to take Seattle and the points.

 

Our prediction is that Seattle will win by 4-6 points, even though our three computer ratings call it a virtual tossup and favor Denver by less than a point.

 

Seattle—21 to 31 points

Denver—16 to 25 points

 

Note—Beginning next week, we will switch to college basketball coverage.  The Big Dance is just 6 weeks away.