PiRate Ratings College Basketball Tournament Coverage–Sunday, February 26, 2023

On the eve of the first men’s basketball conference tournaments, multiple conference tournament brackets are now set.  Here is a look at these tournaments starting this week.

Atlantic Sun

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Opening Round – Monday, February 27 (ESPN+)

Game 1: #9 Queens (17-14) vs. #10 Florida Gulf Coast (17-14) (@ Kennesaw St.)

Game 2: #7 North Florida (14-16) vs. #8 Bellarmine (14-17) (@ Liberty)

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Quarterfinals – Tuesday, February 28 (ESPN+)

Game 3: Game 1 Winner at #1 Kennesaw St. (23-8)

Game 4: #5 Lipscomb (19-12) at #4 Stetson (17-12)

Game 5: Game 2 Winner at #2 Liberty (24-7)

Game 6: #6 North Alabama (18-13) at #3 Eastern Kentucky (19-12)

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Semifinals – Thursday, March 2 (ESPN+)

Game 7: Lowest Remaining Seed at Highest Remaining Seed

Game 8: 2nd Lowest Remaining Seed at 2nd Highest Remaining Seed

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Finals – Sunday, March 5 (3 PM EST on ESPN2)

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Big South – Charlotte

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Opening Round – Wednesday, March 1 (ESPN+)

Game 1: #8 High Point (14-16) vs. #9 Charleston Southern (9-20)

Game 2: #7 Campbel (13-17) vs. #10 Presbyterian (5-26)

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Quarterfinals – Friday, March 3 (ESPN+)

Game 3: #1 UNC-Asheville (24-7) vs. Game 1 Winner

Game 4: #4 USC-Upstate (14-15) vs. #5 Gardner-Webb (15-15)

Game 5: #2 Longwood (20-11) vs. Game 2 Winner

Game 6: #3 Radford (18-13) vs. #6 Winthrop (15-16)

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Semifinals – Saturday, March 4 (ESPN+)

Game 3 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner

Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner

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Finals – Sunday, March 5 (1 PM EST on ESPN2)

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Colonial Athletic – Washington, D.C.

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Opening Round – Friday, March 3 (FloHoops.com)

Game 1: #12 Hampton (8-23) vs. #13 Monmouth (6-25)

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2nd Round – Saturday, March 4 (FloHoops.com)

Game 2: #8 William & Mary (12-19) vs. #9 Elon (8-23)

Game 3: #5 Drexel (16-14) vs. Game 1 Winner

Game 4: #7 North Carolina A&T (13-18) vs. #10 Stony Brook (10-21)

Game 5: #6 Delaware (16-15) vs. #11 Northeastern (10-19)

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Quarterfinals – Sunday, March 5 (FloHoops.com)

Game 6: #1 Hofstra (23-8) vs. Game 2 Winner

Game 7: #4 UNC Wilmington (22-9) vs. Game 3 Winner

Game 8: #2 Charleston (28-3) vs. Game 4 Winner

Game 9: #3 Towson (20-11) vs. Game 5 Winner

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Semifinals – Monday, March 6 (CBSSN)

Game 10: Game 6 Winner vs. Game 7 Winner

Game 11: Game 8 Winner vs. Game 9 Winner

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Finals – Tuesday, March 7 (7 PM EST on CBSSN)

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Horizon – Campus Sites 1st 2 rounds / Indianapolis Semifinals & Finals

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Opening Round – Tuesday, February 28 (ESPN+)

Game 1: #11 IUPUI (5-26) at #6 Robert Morris (15-16)

Game 2: #10 Green Bay (3-28) at #7 Wright St. (17-14)

Game 3: #9 Purdue Ft. Wayne (17-14) at #8 Detroit Mercy (13-18)

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Quarterfinals – Thursday, March 2 (ESPN+)

Game 4: #5 Oakland (13-18) at #4 Northern Kentucky (19-12)

Game 5: Lowest Remaining Seed at #1 Youngstown St. (23-8) 

Game 6: Second Highest Remaining Seed at #2 Milwaukee (20-10)

Game 7: Highest Remaining Seed at #3 Cleveland St. (19-12)

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Semifinals – Monday, March 6 [Indianapolis]

Game 8: Highest Remaining Seed vs. Lowest Remaining Seed (ESPNU)

Game 9: 2nd Highest Remaining Seed vs 2nd Lowest Remaining Seed (ESPN2)

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Finals – Tuesday, March 7 [Indianapolis] (7 PM EST on ESPN or ESPN2)

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Missouri Valley (Arch Madness) – St. Louis

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Opening Round – Thursday, March 2 (MVCtv)

Game 1: #8 Northern Iowa (13-17) vs. #9 Illinois St. (11-20)

Game 2: #5 Indiana St. (20-11) vs. #12 Evansville (5-26)

Game 3: #7 Murray St. (16-14) vs. #10 Valparaiso (11-20)

Game 4: #6 Missouri St. (16-14) vs. #11 Illinois-Chicago (12-19)

—–

Quarterfinals – Friday, March 3 (MVCtv)

Game 5: #1 Bradley (23-8) vs. Game 1 Winner

Game 6: #4 Belmont (22-10) vs. Game 2 Winner

Game 7: #2 Drake (24-7) vs. Game 3 Winner

Game 8: #3 Southern Illinois (22-9) vs. Game 4 Winner

—–

Semifinals – Saturday, March 4 (CBSSN)

Game 9: Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner

Game 10: Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner

—–

Finals – Sunday, March 5 (2 PM EST on CBS)

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Northeast – Higher Seed Hosts

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Quarterfinals – Wednesday, March 1 (necfrontrow.com)

Game 1: #8 Long Island (3-25) at #1 Merrimack (15-16)

Game 2: #5 Wagner (15-12) at #4 Sacred Heart (15-16)

Game 3: #7 St. Francis (NY) (14-15) at #2 Fairleigh Dickinson (17-14)

Game 4: #6 Central Connecticut St. (10-21) at #3 St. Francis (PA) (12-17)

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Semifinals – Saturday, March 4 (ESPN3)

Game 5: Lowest Remaining Seed at Highest Remaining Seed

Game 6: 2nd Lowest Remaining Seed at 2nd Highest Remaining Seed

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Finals – Tuesday, March 7 (7 PM EST on ESPN2)

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Ohio Valley – Evansville, IN

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Opening Round – Wednesday, March 1 (ESPN+)

Game 1: #5 Southeast Missouri (15-16) vs. #8 Lindenwood (11-20)

Game 2: #6 SIU Edwardsville (18-13) vs. #7 Southern Indiana (16-15)

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Quarterfinals – Thursday, March 2 (ESPN+)

Game 3: #4 Tennessee State (18-13) vs. Game 1 Winner

Game 4: #3 UT-Martin (18-13) vs. Game 4 Winner

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Semifinals – Friday, March 3 (ESPNU)

Game 5: #1 Morehead St. (21-10) vs. Game 3 Winner

Game 6: #2 Tennessee Tech (15-16) vs. Game 4 Winner

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Finals – Saturday, March 4 (8 PM EST on ESPN2)

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Patriot – Higher Seed Hosts

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Opening Round – Tuesday, February 28 (ESPN+)

Game 1: #10 Bucknell (12-19) at #7 American (15-14)

Game 2: #9 Holy Cross (10-21) at #8 Loyola (MD) (12-19)

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Quarterfinals – Thursday, March 2 (ESPN+)

Game 3: Game 2 Winner at #1 Colgate (23-8)

Game 4: #5 Boston U (15-16) at #4 Army (16-15)

Game 5: Game 1 Winner at #2 Navy (18-12)

Game 6: #6 Lafayette (9-22) at #3 Lehigh (16-13)

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Semifinals – Sunday, March 5 (CBSSN)

Game 7: Game 3 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner at higher seed

Game 8: Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner at higher seed

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Finals – Wednesday, March 8 (7:30 PM EST on CBSSN)

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Southern – Asheville, NC

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Opening Round – Friday, March 3 (ESPN+)

Game 1: #8 Mercer (13-18) vs. #9 The Citadel (10-21)

Game 2: #7 Chattanooga (15-16) vs. #10 VMI (7-24)

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Quarterfinals – Saturday, March 4 (ESPN+)

Game 3: #1 Furman (24-7) vs. Game 1 Winner

Game 4: #4 Western Carolina (17-14) vs. #5 East Tennessee St. (12-19)

Game 5: #2 Samford (21-10) vs. Game 2 Winner

Game 6: #3 UNC Greensboro (20-11) vs. #6 Wofford (16-15)

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Semifinals – Sunday, March 5 

Game 7: Game 3 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner on ESPNU

Game 8: Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner on ESPNEWS

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Finals – Monday, March 6  (7 PM EST on ESPN)

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Summit – Sioux Falls, SD

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Opening Round – Friday, March 3 (ESPN+)

Game 1: #8 Denver (15-16) vs. #9 North Dakota (12-19)

Game 2: #7 UMKC (11-20) vs. #10 Omaha (8-22)

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Quarterfinals Day 1 – Saturday, March 4 (ESPN+)

Game 3: #1 Oral Roberts (27-4) vs. Game 1 Winner

Game 4: #2 South Dakota St. (18-12) vs. Game 2 Winner

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Quarterfinals Day 2 – Sunday, March 5 (ESPN+)

Game 5: #4 Western Illinois (16-13) vs. #5 St. Thomas (18-13)

Game 6: #3 North Dakota St. (14-16) vs. #6 South Dakota (12-18)

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Semifinals – Monday, March 6 (ESPN+)

Game 7: Game 3 Winner vs. Game 5 Winner

Game 8: Game 4 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner

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Finals – Tuesday, March 7 (9 PM EST on ESPN2)

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Sun Belt – Pensacola, FL

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Opening Round – Tuesday, February 28  (ESPN+)

Game 1: #12 Coastal Carolina (11-19) vs. #13 Arkansas St. (12-19)

Game 2: #11 Texas St. (13-18) vs. #14 Georgia St. (10-20)

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2nd Round – Thursday, March 2 (ESPN+)

Game 3: #8 South Alabama (16-15) vs. #9 Appalachian St. (16-15)

Game 4: #5 Troy (19-12) vs. Game 1 Winner

Game 5: #6 Old Dominion (19-11) vs. Game 2 Winner

Game 6: #7 Georgia Southern (16-15) vs. #10 Louisiana-Monroe (11-20)

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Quarterfinals – Saturday, March 4 (ESPN+)

Game 7: #1 Southern Miss (25-6) vs. Game 3 Winner

Game 8: #4 James Madison (21-10) vs. Game 4 Winner

Game 9: #3 Marshall (24-7) vs. Game 5 Winner

Game 10: #2 Louisiana (23-7) vs. Game 6 Winner

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Semifinals – Sunday, March 5 (ESPN+)

Game 11: Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner

Game 12: Game 9 Winner vs. Game 10 Winner

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Finals – Monday, March 6 (7 PM EST on ESPN2)

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West Coast – Las Vegas

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Opening Round – Thursday, March 2 (BYUtv)

Game 1: #8 Portland (13-18) vs. #9 San Diego (11-19)

Game 2: #7 Pacific (14-17) vs. #10 Pepperdine (9-21)

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2nd Round – Friday, March 3 (BYUtv)

Game 3: #5 BYU (17-14) vs. Game 1 Winner

Game 4: #6 San Francisco (18-13) vs. Game 2 Winner

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Quarterfinals – Saturday, March 4 (ESPN2)

Game 5: #4 Loyola Marymount (19-11) vs. Game 3 Winner

Game 6: #3 Santa Clara (23-8) vs. Game 4 Winner

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Semifinals – Monday, March 6 

Game 7: #1 Saint Mary’s (25-6) vs. Game 5 Winner (ESPN)

Game 8: #2 Gonzaga (25-5*) vs. Game 6 Winner (ESPN2)

* Gonzaga has a non-conference game with Chicago St. before the tournament.

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Finals – Tuesday, March 7  (8 PM EST on ESPN)

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Friday, February 24, 2023

Friday’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	Spread
Canisius	Saint Peter’s	4.4
Central Arkansas	Kennesaw St.	-10.0
Colorado St.	Wyoming	5.8
Florida Gulf Coast	Austin Peay	10.5
Fresno St.	Nevada	-5.9
Georgia Southern	Appalachian St.	0.3
Grand Canyon	Seattle	4.6
Jacksonville	Eastern Kentucky	0.5
James Madison	Georgia St.	13.8
Liberty	Queens	13.9
Louisiana	South Alabama	2.9
Louisiana Monroe	Arkansas St.	4.1
Manhattan	Marist	4.0
Mount St. Mary’s	Iona	-11.5
Niagara	Fairfield	2.0
North Alabama	Jacksonville St.	2.3
North Florida	Bellarmine	3.3
Old Dominion	Marshall	-4.8
Rider	Siena	1.9
Seton Hall	Xavier	-1.4
Stetson	Lipscomb	3.0
Texas St.	Southern Miss.	-4.3
Troy	Coastal Carolina	9.5
UNLV	Air Force	9.2
VCU	Richmond	9.4

Friday’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Conference
1	Alabama	120.5	Southeastern
2	Houston	120.2	American Athletic
3	UCLA	118.5	Pac-12
4	Tennessee	118.1	Southeastern
5	Connecticut	117.6	Big East
6	Kansas	117.5	Big 12
7	Purdue	116.9	Big Ten
8	Arizona	116.7	Pac-12
9	Texas	116.7	Big 12
10	Gonzaga	116.5	West Coast
11	Creighton	115.5	Big East
12	Baylor	115.2	Big 12
13	Marquette	115.2	Big East
14	Arkansas	114.7	Southeastern
15	Saint Mary’s	114.7	West Coast
16	TCU	113.8	Big 12
17	Xavier	113.6	Big East
18	Indiana	113.5	Big Ten
19	Auburn	113.4	Southeastern
20	Maryland	113.3	Big Ten
21	Kansas St.	113.2	Big 12
22	San Diego St.	113.2	Mountain West
23	Iowa St.	113.1	Big 12
24	West Virginia	113.0	Big 12
25	Illinois	112.9	Big Ten
26	Texas A&M	112.6	Southeastern
27	Kentucky	112.5	Southeastern
28	Miami (Fla)	112.5	Atlantic Coast
29	Rutgers	112.3	Big Ten
30	Michigan St.	112.0	Big Ten
31	Duke	111.9	Atlantic Coast
32	Memphis	111.7	American Athletic
33	Iowa	111.7	Big Ten
34	Providence	111.7	Big East
35	Virginia	111.7	Atlantic Coast
36	North Carolina	111.6	Atlantic Coast
37	Boise St.	111.6	Mountain West
38	North Carolina St.	111.6	Atlantic Coast
39	Oklahoma St.	111.2	Big 12
40	Utah St.	111.0	Mountain West
41	USC	111.0	Pac-12
42	Northwestern	110.8	Big Ten
43	Michigan	110.8	Big Ten
44	Texas Tech	110.8	Big 12
45	Oregon	110.6	Pac-12
46	Florida Atlantic	110.4	Conference USA
47	Mississippi St.	110.4	Southeastern
48	Florida	110.3	Southeastern
49	Nevada	110.0	Mountain West
50	Penn St.	109.9	Big Ten
51	New Mexico	109.6	Mountain West
52	Utah	109.3	Pac-12
53	Seton Hall	109.2	Big East
54	Missouri	109.2	Southeastern
55	Dayton	109.1	Atlantic 10
56	Cincinnati	109.1	American Athletic
57	UAB	109.1	Conference USA
58	Ohio St.	109.1	Big Ten
59	Oklahoma	109.0	Big 12
60	Colorado	108.9	Pac-12
61	Liberty	108.9	Atlantic Sun
62	Villanova	108.7	Big East
63	Virginia Tech	108.7	Atlantic Coast
64	Arizona St.	108.7	Pac-12
65	Pittsburgh	108.6	Atlantic Coast
66	Wisconsin	108.6	Big Ten
67	Washington St.	108.6	Pac-12
68	Central Florida	108.1	American Athletic
69	Charleston	108.1	Colonial Athletic
70	Clemson	108.1	Atlantic Coast
71	Drake	108.1	Missouri Valley
72	Oral Roberts	108.0	Summit
73	VCU	107.8	Atlantic 10
74	Marshall	107.6	Sun Belt
75	North Texas	107.5	Conference USA
76	Wake Forest	107.5	Atlantic Coast
77	Yale	107.5	Ivy League
78	Kent St.	107.3	Mid-American
79	Bradley	107.3	Missouri Valley
80	Sam Houston St.	107.3	Western Athletic
81	Tulane	107.2	American Athletic
82	Iona	107.1	Metro Atlantic
83	BYU	107.0	West Coast
84	St. John’s	106.8	Big East
85	UNLV	106.5	Mountain West
86	Vanderbilt	106.4	Southeastern
87	Santa Clara	106.2	West Coast
88	Stanford	106.0	Pac-12
89	Furman	105.9	Southern
90	Nebraska	105.6	Big Ten
91	Toledo	105.6	Mid-American
92	Utah Valley	105.6	Western Athletic
93	James Madison	105.5	Sun Belt
94	Indiana St.	105.4	Missouri Valley
95	Syracuse	105.3	Atlantic Coast
96	Saint Louis	105.2	Atlantic 10
97	Hofstra	105.0	Colonial Athletic
98	Washington	105.0	Pac-12
99	UC Irvine	104.5	Big West
100	Mississippi	104.5	Southeastern
101	Duquesne	104.5	Atlantic 10
102	San Francisco	104.4	West Coast
103	Southern Utah	104.2	Western Athletic
104	UNC Greensboro	104.2	Southern
105	Akron	104.2	Mid-American
106	Butler	104.0	Big East
107	Southern Miss	103.9	Sun Belt
108	Colorado St.	103.9	Mountain West
109	Temple	103.9	American Athletic
110	Louisiana	103.9	Sun Belt
111	Loyola Marymount	103.8	West Coast
112	Wichita St.	103.7	American Athletic
113	Colgate	103.6	Patriot League
114	South Alabama	103.5	Sun Belt
115	Grand Canyon	103.4	Western Athletic
116	Charlotte	103.1	Conference USA
117	Youngstown St.	103.0	Horizon
118	Eastern Washington	103.0	Big Sky
119	Belmont	102.9	Missouri Valley
120	LSU	102.8	Southeastern
121	Southern Illinois	102.7	Missouri Valley
122	Montana St.	102.7	Big Sky
123	San Jose St.	102.7	Mountain West
124	Vermont	102.7	America East
125	Georgia	102.6	Southeastern
126	Princeton	102.6	Ivy League
127	Samford	102.6	Southern
128	Middle Tennessee	102.5	Conference USA
129	UC Santa Barbara	102.4	Big West
130	Stephen F. Austin	102.4	Western Athletic
131	Cornell	102.0	Ivy League
132	Ohio	102.0	Mid-American
133	Cal St. Fullerton	102.0	Big West
134	Davidson	101.9	Atlantic 10
135	Penn	101.9	Ivy League
136	Hawaii	101.9	Big West
137	South Florida	101.9	American Athletic
138	Towson	101.8	Colonial Athletic
139	DePaul	101.8	Big East
140	Troy	101.6	Sun Belt
141	George Mason	101.6	Atlantic 10
142	UMass Lowell	101.6	America East
143	Fordham	101.5	Atlantic 10
144	UC Riverside	101.5	Big West
145	Richmond	101.4	Atlantic 10
146	Kennesaw St.	101.3	Atlantic Sun
147	Seattle	101.3	Western Athletic
148	Notre Dame	101.3	Atlantic Coast
149	Wyoming	101.1	Mountain West
150	Louisiana Tech	101.1	Conference USA
151	Longwood	101.1	Big South
152	Fresno St.	101.1	Mountain West
153	Ball St.	101.0	Mid-American
154	Cal Baptist	100.9	Western Athletic
155	Boston College	100.7	Atlantic Coast
156	UC Davis	100.7	Big West
157	Missouri St.	100.6	Missouri Valley
158	UNC Asheville	100.5	Big South
159	South Dakota St.	100.5	Summit
160	Western Kentucky	100.5	Conference USA
161	Long Beach St.	100.5	Big West
162	Tarleton St.	100.4	Western Athletic
163	Old Dominion	100.3	Sun Belt
164	Air Force	100.3	Mountain West
165	Portland	100.1	West Coast
166	UNC Wilmington	100.1	Colonial Athletic
167	Appalachian St.	100.1	Sun Belt
168	Harvard	100.1	Ivy League
169	Georgia Tech	100.0	Atlantic Coast
170	Stetson	100.0	Atlantic Sun
171	Quinnipiac	100.0	Metro Atlantic
172	SMU	99.9	American Athletic
173	Chattanooga	99.8	Southern
174	Montana	99.7	Big Sky
175	St. Bonaventure	99.6	Atlantic 10
176	Navy	99.5	Patriot League
177	Lipscomb	99.5	Atlantic Sun
178	Abilene Christian	99.3	Western Athletic
179	Radford	99.3	Big South
180	Georgetown	99.3	Big East
181	Norfolk St.	99.3	Mideastern Athletic
182	New Mexico St.	99.3	Western Athletic
183	Florida St.	99.3	Atlantic Coast
184	Siena	99.3	Metro Atlantic
185	Massachusetts	99.3	Atlantic 10
186	Rice	99.1	Conference USA
187	Wright St.	99.1	Horizon
188	Northern Kentucky	99.1	Horizon
189	Bryant	99.1	America East
190	Brown	99.0	Ivy League
191	Pepperdine	99.0	West Coast
192	UTEP	99.0	Conference USA
193	Gardner Webb	99.0	Big South
194	Florida Gulf Coast	99.0	Atlantic Sun
195	Buffalo	98.9	Mid-American
196	Utah Tech	98.9	Western Athletic
197	Saint Joseph’s	98.8	Atlantic 10
198	Drexel	98.8	Colonial Athletic
199	Cleveland St.	98.8	Horizon
200	Rider	98.7	Metro Atlantic
201	North Carolina Central	98.6	Mideastern Athletic
202	Eastern Kentucky	98.6	Atlantic Sun
203	Oregon St.	98.4	Pac-12
204	Texas A&M CC	98.4	Southland
205	San Diego	98.3	West Coast
206	Detroit Mercy	98.2	Horizon
207	Northern Iowa	98.2	Missouri Valley
208	Minnesota	98.1	Big Ten
209	St. Thomas	98.1	Summit
210	South Carolina	98.1	Southeastern
211	East Carolina	97.9	American Athletic
212	Georgia Southern	97.9	Sun Belt
213	Grambling	97.8	Southwestern Athletic
214	Pacific	97.8	West Coast
215	Weber St.	97.7	Big Sky
216	George Washington	97.5	Atlantic 10
217	La Salle	97.5	Atlantic 10
218	North Dakota St.	97.5	Summit
219	Queens	97.5	Atlantic Sun
220	Northwestern St.	97.3	Southland
221	Murray St.	97.2	Missouri Valley
222	Wofford	97.1	Southern
223	Texas St.	97.1	Sun Belt
224	Florida Int’l	96.8	Conference USA
225	Delaware	96.6	Colonial Athletic
226	Jacksonville	96.6	Atlantic Sun
227	Rhode Island	96.6	Atlantic 10
228	Purdue Fort Wayne	96.6	Horizon
229	Mercer	96.5	Southern
230	Loyola (Chi.)	96.5	Atlantic 10
231	Northern Colorado	96.3	Big Sky
232	East Tennessee St.	96.2	Southern
233	Robert Morris	96.1	Horizon
234	North Florida	96.1	Atlantic Sun
235	Sacramento St.	96.0	Big Sky
236	Campbell	96.0	Big South
237	Winthrop	96.0	Big South
238	Milwaukee	95.9	Horizon
239	Portland St.	95.9	Big Sky
240	UT Arlington	95.9	Western Athletic
241	UMBC	95.8	America East
242	Fairfield	95.8	Metro Atlantic
243	Northern Arizona	95.8	Big Sky
244	Jacksonville St.	95.7	Atlantic Sun
245	Nicholls St.	95.6	Southland
246	Western Carolina	95.6	Southern
247	North Alabama	95.5	Atlantic Sun
248	Southern	95.4	Southwestern Athletic
249	Morehead St.	95.4	Ohio Valley
250	Howard	95.3	Mideastern Athletic
251	Bellarmine	95.3	Atlantic Sun
252	Niagara	95.3	Metro Atlantic
253	California	95.3	Pac-12
254	Northern Illinois	95.3	Mid-American
255	Army	95.3	Patriot League
256	Louisville	95.2	Atlantic Coast
257	Alcorn St.	95.0	Southwestern Athletic
258	SIU Edwardsville	94.9	Ohio Valley
259	Maryland Eastern Shore	94.8	Mideastern Athletic
260	UT-Martin	94.7	Ohio Valley
261	Illinois St.	94.6	Missouri Valley
262	UT Rio Grande Valley	94.6	Western Athletic
263	Coastal Carolina	94.6	Sun Belt
264	Idaho St.	94.6	Big Sky
265	Boston University	94.4	Patriot League
266	Southeastern Louisiana	94.3	Southland
267	Lafayette	94.3	Patriot League
268	Oakland	94.3	Horizon
269	UC San Diego	94.2	Big West
270	Canisius	94.2	Metro Atlantic
271	Valparaiso	94.2	Missouri Valley
272	Georgia St.	94.2	Sun Belt
273	USC Upstate	94.1	Big South
274	Southeast Missouri St.	94.0	Ohio Valley
275	American	94.0	Patriot League
276	Dartmouth	94.0	Ivy League
277	New Hampshire	93.9	America East
278	Western Illinois	93.9	Summit
279	Louisiana Monroe	93.9	Sun Belt
280	Southern Indiana	93.8	Ohio Valley
281	Lehigh	93.8	Patriot League
282	Prairie View A&M	93.7	Southwestern Athletic
283	Tennessee St.	93.5	Ohio Valley
284	Chicago St.	93.5	Independents
285	Bowling Green	93.4	Mid-American
286	UMKC	93.3	Summit
287	Maine	93.2	America East
288	Cal St. Bakersfield	93.1	Big West
289	Mount St. Mary’s	93.1	Metro Atlantic
290	Manhattan	93.0	Metro Atlantic
291	Illinois Chicago	93.0	Missouri Valley
292	North Dakota	92.9	Summit
293	Miami (O)	92.8	Mid-American
294	Northeastern	92.8	Colonial Athletic
295	Tulsa	92.6	American Athletic
296	Idaho	92.5	Big Sky
297	Morgan St.	92.5	Mideastern Athletic
298	Tennessee Tech	92.4	Ohio Valley
299	Binghamton	92.4	America East
300	High Point	92.4	Big South
301	Denver	92.4	Summit
302	Bucknell	92.3	Patriot League
303	Texas Southern	92.3	Southwestern Athletic
304	Saint Peter’s	92.3	Metro Atlantic
305	Arkansas St.	92.3	Sun Belt
306	Wagner	92.2	Northeast
307	Texas A&M Commerce	92.2	Southland
308	North Carolina A&T	92.1	Colonial Athletic
309	Cal Poly	91.9	Big West
310	South Dakota	91.9	Summit
311	The Citadel	91.8	Southern
312	Charleston Southern	91.7	Big South
313	Western Michigan	91.7	Mid-American
314	William & Mary	91.6	Colonial Athletic
315	Merrimack	91.6	Northeast
316	Marist	91.5	Metro Atlantic
317	Jackson St.	91.4	Southwestern Athletic
318	UTSA	91.3	Conference USA
319	Eastern Michigan	91.2	Mid-American
320	Cal St. Northridge	91.0	Big West
321	Austin Peay	91.0	Atlantic Sun
322	Loyola (MD)	90.9	Patriot League
323	Fairleigh Dickinson	90.9	Northeast
324	Elon	90.9	Colonial Athletic
325	Alabama A&M	90.8	Southwestern Athletic
326	Stony Brook	90.8	Colonial Athletic
327	Central Michigan	90.6	Mid-American
328	NJIT	90.6	America East
329	Omaha	90.5	Summit
330	Little Rock	90.2	Ohio Valley
331	Stonehill	90.1	Northeast
332	Arkansas Pine Bluff	90.1	Southwestern Athletic
333	Sacred Heart	90.1	Northeast
334	St. Francis PA	90.0	Northeast
335	Central Connecticut	89.7	Northeast
336	Presbyterian	89.5	Big South
337	Central Arkansas	88.8	Atlantic Sun
338	McNeese St.	88.8	Southland
339	Holy Cross	88.7	Patriot League
340	Lindenwood	88.7	Ohio Valley
341	Hampton	88.5	Colonial Athletic
342	Eastern Illinois	88.4	Ohio Valley
343	Alabama St.	88.4	Southwestern Athletic
344	Coppin St.	88.1	Mideastern Athletic
345	Incarnate Word	88.1	Southland
346	Albany	88.1	America East
347	Evansville	88.0	Missouri Valley
348	VMI	88.0	Southern
349	South Carolina St.	87.9	Mideastern Athletic
350	Columbia	87.7	Ivy League
351	New Orleans	87.5	Southland
352	Monmouth	87.2	Colonial Athletic
353	St. Francis NY	87.1	Northeast
354	Bethune Cookman	86.7	Southwestern Athletic
355	Houston Christian	86.7	Southland
356	Florida A&M	86.5	Southwestern Athletic
357	Delaware St.	86.0	Mideastern Athletic
358	Mississippi Valley St.	85.5	Southwestern Athletic
359	Lamar	85.4	Southland
360	IUPUI	83.8	Horizon
361	Green Bay	82.8	Horizon
362	Hartford	81.6	Independents
363	Long Island	80.3	Northeast

Alphabetical

#	Team	PiRate	Conference
178	Abilene Christian	99.3	Western Athletic
164	Air Force	100.3	Mountain West
105	Akron	104.2	Mid-American
1	Alabama	120.5	Southeastern
325	Alabama A&M	90.8	Southwestern Athletic
343	Alabama St.	88.4	Southwestern Athletic
346	Albany	88.1	America East
257	Alcorn St.	95.0	Southwestern Athletic
275	American	94.0	Patriot League
167	Appalachian St.	100.1	Sun Belt
8	Arizona	116.7	Pac-12
64	Arizona St.	108.7	Pac-12
14	Arkansas	114.7	Southeastern
332	Arkansas Pine Bluff	90.1	Southwestern Athletic
305	Arkansas St.	92.3	Sun Belt
255	Army	95.3	Patriot League
19	Auburn	113.4	Southeastern
321	Austin Peay	91.0	Atlantic Sun
153	Ball St.	101.0	Mid-American
12	Baylor	115.2	Big 12
251	Bellarmine	95.3	Atlantic Sun
119	Belmont	102.9	Missouri Valley
354	Bethune Cookman	86.7	Southwestern Athletic
299	Binghamton	92.4	America East
37	Boise St.	111.6	Mountain West
155	Boston College	100.7	Atlantic Coast
265	Boston University	94.4	Patriot League
285	Bowling Green	93.4	Mid-American
79	Bradley	107.3	Missouri Valley
190	Brown	99.0	Ivy League
189	Bryant	99.1	America East
302	Bucknell	92.3	Patriot League
195	Buffalo	98.9	Mid-American
106	Butler	104.0	Big East
83	BYU	107.0	West Coast
154	Cal Baptist	100.9	Western Athletic
309	Cal Poly	91.9	Big West
288	Cal St. Bakersfield	93.1	Big West
133	Cal St. Fullerton	102.0	Big West
320	Cal St. Northridge	91.0	Big West
253	California	95.3	Pac-12
236	Campbell	96.0	Big South
270	Canisius	94.2	Metro Atlantic
337	Central Arkansas	88.8	Atlantic Sun
335	Central Connecticut	89.7	Northeast
68	Central Florida	108.1	American Athletic
327	Central Michigan	90.6	Mid-American
69	Charleston	108.1	Colonial Athletic
312	Charleston Southern	91.7	Big South
116	Charlotte	103.1	Conference USA
173	Chattanooga	99.8	Southern
284	Chicago St.	93.5	Independents
56	Cincinnati	109.1	American Athletic
70	Clemson	108.1	Atlantic Coast
199	Cleveland St.	98.8	Horizon
263	Coastal Carolina	94.6	Sun Belt
113	Colgate	103.6	Patriot League
60	Colorado	108.9	Pac-12
108	Colorado St.	103.9	Mountain West
350	Columbia	87.7	Ivy League
5	Connecticut	117.6	Big East
344	Coppin St.	88.1	Mideastern Athletic
131	Cornell	102.0	Ivy League
11	Creighton	115.5	Big East
276	Dartmouth	94.0	Ivy League
134	Davidson	101.9	Atlantic 10
55	Dayton	109.1	Atlantic 10
225	Delaware	96.6	Colonial Athletic
357	Delaware St.	86.0	Mideastern Athletic
301	Denver	92.4	Summit
139	DePaul	101.8	Big East
206	Detroit Mercy	98.2	Horizon
71	Drake	108.1	Missouri Valley
198	Drexel	98.8	Colonial Athletic
31	Duke	111.9	Atlantic Coast
101	Duquesne	104.5	Atlantic 10
211	East Carolina	97.9	American Athletic
232	East Tennessee St.	96.2	Southern
342	Eastern Illinois	88.4	Ohio Valley
202	Eastern Kentucky	98.6	Atlantic Sun
319	Eastern Michigan	91.2	Mid-American
118	Eastern Washington	103.0	Big Sky
324	Elon	90.9	Colonial Athletic
347	Evansville	88.0	Missouri Valley
242	Fairfield	95.8	Metro Atlantic
323	Fairleigh Dickinson	90.9	Northeast
48	Florida	110.3	Southeastern
356	Florida A&M	86.5	Southwestern Athletic
46	Florida Atlantic	110.4	Conference USA
194	Florida Gulf Coast	99.0	Atlantic Sun
224	Florida Int’l	96.8	Conference USA
183	Florida St.	99.3	Atlantic Coast
143	Fordham	101.5	Atlantic 10
152	Fresno St.	101.1	Mountain West
89	Furman	105.9	Southern
193	Gardner Webb	99.0	Big South
141	George Mason	101.6	Atlantic 10
216	George Washington	97.5	Atlantic 10
180	Georgetown	99.3	Big East
125	Georgia	102.6	Southeastern
212	Georgia Southern	97.9	Sun Belt
272	Georgia St.	94.2	Sun Belt
169	Georgia Tech	100.0	Atlantic Coast
10	Gonzaga	116.5	West Coast
213	Grambling	97.8	Southwestern Athletic
115	Grand Canyon	103.4	Western Athletic
361	Green Bay	82.8	Horizon
341	Hampton	88.5	Colonial Athletic
362	Hartford	81.6	Independents
168	Harvard	100.1	Ivy League
136	Hawaii	101.9	Big West
300	High Point	92.4	Big South
97	Hofstra	105.0	Colonial Athletic
339	Holy Cross	88.7	Patriot League
2	Houston	120.2	American Athletic
355	Houston Christian	86.7	Southland
250	Howard	95.3	Mideastern Athletic
296	Idaho	92.5	Big Sky
264	Idaho St.	94.6	Big Sky
25	Illinois	112.9	Big Ten
291	Illinois Chicago	93.0	Missouri Valley
261	Illinois St.	94.6	Missouri Valley
345	Incarnate Word	88.1	Southland
18	Indiana	113.5	Big Ten
94	Indiana St.	105.4	Missouri Valley
82	Iona	107.1	Metro Atlantic
33	Iowa	111.7	Big Ten
23	Iowa St.	113.1	Big 12
360	IUPUI	83.8	Horizon
317	Jackson St.	91.4	Southwestern Athletic
226	Jacksonville	96.6	Atlantic Sun
244	Jacksonville St.	95.7	Atlantic Sun
93	James Madison	105.5	Sun Belt
6	Kansas	117.5	Big 12
21	Kansas St.	113.2	Big 12
146	Kennesaw St.	101.3	Atlantic Sun
78	Kent St.	107.3	Mid-American
27	Kentucky	112.5	Southeastern
217	La Salle	97.5	Atlantic 10
267	Lafayette	94.3	Patriot League
359	Lamar	85.4	Southland
281	Lehigh	93.8	Patriot League
61	Liberty	108.9	Atlantic Sun
340	Lindenwood	88.7	Ohio Valley
177	Lipscomb	99.5	Atlantic Sun
330	Little Rock	90.2	Ohio Valley
161	Long Beach St.	100.5	Big West
363	Long Island	80.3	Northeast
151	Longwood	101.1	Big South
110	Louisiana	103.9	Sun Belt
279	Louisiana Monroe	93.9	Sun Belt
150	Louisiana Tech	101.1	Conference USA
256	Louisville	95.2	Atlantic Coast
230	Loyola (Chi.)	96.5	Atlantic 10
322	Loyola (MD)	90.9	Patriot League
111	Loyola Marymount	103.8	West Coast
120	LSU	102.8	Southeastern
287	Maine	93.2	America East
290	Manhattan	93.0	Metro Atlantic
316	Marist	91.5	Metro Atlantic
13	Marquette	115.2	Big East
74	Marshall	107.6	Sun Belt
20	Maryland	113.3	Big Ten
259	Maryland Eastern Shore	94.8	Mideastern Athletic
185	Massachusetts	99.3	Atlantic 10
338	McNeese St.	88.8	Southland
32	Memphis	111.7	American Athletic
229	Mercer	96.5	Southern
315	Merrimack	91.6	Northeast
28	Miami (Fla)	112.5	Atlantic Coast
293	Miami (O)	92.8	Mid-American
43	Michigan	110.8	Big Ten
30	Michigan St.	112.0	Big Ten
128	Middle Tennessee	102.5	Conference USA
238	Milwaukee	95.9	Horizon
208	Minnesota	98.1	Big Ten
100	Mississippi	104.5	Southeastern
47	Mississippi St.	110.4	Southeastern
358	Mississippi Valley St.	85.5	Southwestern Athletic
54	Missouri	109.2	Southeastern
157	Missouri St.	100.6	Missouri Valley
352	Monmouth	87.2	Colonial Athletic
174	Montana	99.7	Big Sky
122	Montana St.	102.7	Big Sky
249	Morehead St.	95.4	Ohio Valley
297	Morgan St.	92.5	Mideastern Athletic
289	Mount St. Mary’s	93.1	Metro Atlantic
221	Murray St.	97.2	Missouri Valley
176	Navy	99.5	Patriot League
90	Nebraska	105.6	Big Ten
49	Nevada	110.0	Mountain West
277	New Hampshire	93.9	America East
51	New Mexico	109.6	Mountain West
182	New Mexico St.	99.3	Western Athletic
351	New Orleans	87.5	Southland
252	Niagara	95.3	Metro Atlantic
245	Nicholls St.	95.6	Southland
328	NJIT	90.6	America East
181	Norfolk St.	99.3	Mideastern Athletic
247	North Alabama	95.5	Atlantic Sun
36	North Carolina	111.6	Atlantic Coast
308	North Carolina A&T	92.1	Colonial Athletic
201	North Carolina Central	98.6	Mideastern Athletic
38	North Carolina St.	111.6	Atlantic Coast
292	North Dakota	92.9	Summit
218	North Dakota St.	97.5	Summit
234	North Florida	96.1	Atlantic Sun
75	North Texas	107.5	Conference USA
294	Northeastern	92.8	Colonial Athletic
243	Northern Arizona	95.8	Big Sky
231	Northern Colorado	96.3	Big Sky
254	Northern Illinois	95.3	Mid-American
207	Northern Iowa	98.2	Missouri Valley
188	Northern Kentucky	99.1	Horizon
42	Northwestern	110.8	Big Ten
220	Northwestern St.	97.3	Southland
148	Notre Dame	101.3	Atlantic Coast
268	Oakland	94.3	Horizon
132	Ohio	102.0	Mid-American
58	Ohio St.	109.1	Big Ten
59	Oklahoma	109.0	Big 12
39	Oklahoma St.	111.2	Big 12
163	Old Dominion	100.3	Sun Belt
329	Omaha	90.5	Summit
72	Oral Roberts	108.0	Summit
45	Oregon	110.6	Pac-12
203	Oregon St.	98.4	Pac-12
214	Pacific	97.8	West Coast
135	Penn	101.9	Ivy League
50	Penn St.	109.9	Big Ten
191	Pepperdine	99.0	West Coast
65	Pittsburgh	108.6	Atlantic Coast
165	Portland	100.1	West Coast
239	Portland St.	95.9	Big Sky
282	Prairie View A&M	93.7	Southwestern Athletic
336	Presbyterian	89.5	Big South
126	Princeton	102.6	Ivy League
34	Providence	111.7	Big East
7	Purdue	116.9	Big Ten
228	Purdue Fort Wayne	96.6	Horizon
219	Queens	97.5	Atlantic Sun
171	Quinnipiac	100.0	Metro Atlantic
179	Radford	99.3	Big South
227	Rhode Island	96.6	Atlantic 10
186	Rice	99.1	Conference USA
145	Richmond	101.4	Atlantic 10
200	Rider	98.7	Metro Atlantic
233	Robert Morris	96.1	Horizon
29	Rutgers	112.3	Big Ten
235	Sacramento St.	96.0	Big Sky
333	Sacred Heart	90.1	Northeast
197	Saint Joseph’s	98.8	Atlantic 10
96	Saint Louis	105.2	Atlantic 10
15	Saint Mary’s	114.7	West Coast
304	Saint Peter’s	92.3	Metro Atlantic
80	Sam Houston St.	107.3	Western Athletic
127	Samford	102.6	Southern
205	San Diego	98.3	West Coast
22	San Diego St.	113.2	Mountain West
102	San Francisco	104.4	West Coast
123	San Jose St.	102.7	Mountain West
87	Santa Clara	106.2	West Coast
147	Seattle	101.3	Western Athletic
53	Seton Hall	109.2	Big East
184	Siena	99.3	Metro Atlantic
258	SIU Edwardsville	94.9	Ohio Valley
172	SMU	99.9	American Athletic
114	South Alabama	103.5	Sun Belt
210	South Carolina	98.1	Southeastern
349	South Carolina St.	87.9	Mideastern Athletic
310	South Dakota	91.9	Summit
159	South Dakota St.	100.5	Summit
137	South Florida	101.9	American Athletic
274	Southeast Missouri St.	94.0	Ohio Valley
266	Southeastern Louisiana	94.3	Southland
248	Southern	95.4	Southwestern Athletic
121	Southern Illinois	102.7	Missouri Valley
280	Southern Indiana	93.8	Ohio Valley
107	Southern Miss	103.9	Sun Belt
103	Southern Utah	104.2	Western Athletic
175	St. Bonaventure	99.6	Atlantic 10
353	St. Francis NY	87.1	Northeast
334	St. Francis PA	90.0	Northeast
84	St. John’s	106.8	Big East
209	St. Thomas	98.1	Summit
88	Stanford	106.0	Pac-12
130	Stephen F. Austin	102.4	Western Athletic
170	Stetson	100.0	Atlantic Sun
331	Stonehill	90.1	Northeast
326	Stony Brook	90.8	Colonial Athletic
95	Syracuse	105.3	Atlantic Coast
162	Tarleton St.	100.4	Western Athletic
16	TCU	113.8	Big 12
109	Temple	103.9	American Athletic
4	Tennessee	118.1	Southeastern
283	Tennessee St.	93.5	Ohio Valley
298	Tennessee Tech	92.4	Ohio Valley
9	Texas	116.7	Big 12
26	Texas A&M	112.6	Southeastern
204	Texas A&M CC	98.4	Southland
307	Texas A&M Commerce	92.2	Southland
303	Texas Southern	92.3	Southwestern Athletic
223	Texas St.	97.1	Sun Belt
44	Texas Tech	110.8	Big 12
311	The Citadel	91.8	Southern
91	Toledo	105.6	Mid-American
138	Towson	101.8	Colonial Athletic
140	Troy	101.6	Sun Belt
81	Tulane	107.2	American Athletic
295	Tulsa	92.6	American Athletic
57	UAB	109.1	Conference USA
156	UC Davis	100.7	Big West
99	UC Irvine	104.5	Big West
144	UC Riverside	101.5	Big West
269	UC San Diego	94.2	Big West
129	UC Santa Barbara	102.4	Big West
3	UCLA	118.5	Pac-12
142	UMass Lowell	101.6	America East
241	UMBC	95.8	America East
286	UMKC	93.3	Summit
158	UNC Asheville	100.5	Big South
104	UNC Greensboro	104.2	Southern
166	UNC Wilmington	100.1	Colonial Athletic
85	UNLV	106.5	Mountain West
41	USC	111.0	Pac-12
273	USC Upstate	94.1	Big South
240	UT Arlington	95.9	Western Athletic
262	UT Rio Grande Valley	94.6	Western Athletic
260	UT-Martin	94.7	Ohio Valley
52	Utah	109.3	Pac-12
40	Utah St.	111.0	Mountain West
196	Utah Tech	98.9	Western Athletic
92	Utah Valley	105.6	Western Athletic
192	UTEP	99.0	Conference USA
318	UTSA	91.3	Conference USA
271	Valparaiso	94.2	Missouri Valley
86	Vanderbilt	106.4	Southeastern
73	VCU	107.8	Atlantic 10
124	Vermont	102.7	America East
62	Villanova	108.7	Big East
35	Virginia	111.7	Atlantic Coast
63	Virginia Tech	108.7	Atlantic Coast
348	VMI	88.0	Southern
306	Wagner	92.2	Northeast
76	Wake Forest	107.5	Atlantic Coast
98	Washington	105.0	Pac-12
67	Washington St.	108.6	Pac-12
215	Weber St.	97.7	Big Sky
24	West Virginia	113.0	Big 12
246	Western Carolina	95.6	Southern
278	Western Illinois	93.9	Summit
160	Western Kentucky	100.5	Conference USA
313	Western Michigan	91.7	Mid-American
112	Wichita St.	103.7	American Athletic
314	William & Mary	91.6	Colonial Athletic
237	Winthrop	96.0	Big South
66	Wisconsin	108.6	Big Ten
222	Wofford	97.1	Southern
187	Wright St.	99.1	Horizon
149	Wyoming	101.1	Mountain West
17	Xavier	113.6	Big East
77	Yale	107.5	Ivy League
117	Youngstown St.	103.0	Horizon

PiRate Ratings By Conference

America East
Team	Rating
Vermont	102.7
UMass Lowell	101.6
Bryant	99.1
UMBC	95.8
New Hampshire	93.9
Maine	93.2
Binghamton	92.4
NJIT	90.6
Albany	88.1
American Athletic
Team	Rating
Houston	120.2
Memphis	111.7
Cincinnati	109.1
Central Florida	108.1
Tulane	107.2
Temple	103.9
Wichita St.	103.7
South Florida	101.9
SMU	99.9
East Carolina	97.9
Tulsa	92.6
Atlantic 10
Team	Rating
Dayton	109.1
VCU	107.8
Saint Louis	105.2
Duquesne	104.5
Davidson	101.9
George Mason	101.6
Fordham	101.5
Richmond	101.4
St. Bonaventure	99.6
Massachusetts	99.3
Saint Joseph’s	98.8
George Washington	97.5
La Salle	97.5
Rhode Island	96.6
Loyola (Chi.)	96.5
Atlantic Coast
Team	Rating
Miami (Fla)	112.5
Duke	111.9
Virginia	111.7
North Carolina	111.6
North Carolina St.	111.6
Virginia Tech	108.7
Pittsburgh	108.6
Clemson	108.1
Wake Forest	107.5
Syracuse	105.3
Notre Dame	101.3
Boston College	100.7
Georgia Tech	100.0
Florida St.	99.3
Louisville	95.2
Atlantic Sun
Team	Rating
Liberty	108.9
Kennesaw St.	101.3
Stetson	100.0
Lipscomb	99.5
Florida Gulf Coast	99.0
Eastern Kentucky	98.6
Queens	97.5
Jacksonville	96.6
North Florida	96.1
Jacksonville St.	95.7
North Alabama	95.5
Bellarmine	95.3
Austin Peay	91.0
Central Arkansas	88.8
Big 12
Team	Rating
Kansas	117.5
Texas	116.7
Baylor	115.2
TCU	113.8
Kansas St.	113.2
Iowa St.	113.1
West Virginia	113.0
Oklahoma St.	111.2
Texas Tech	110.8
Oklahoma	109.0
Big East
Team	Rating
Connecticut	117.6
Creighton	115.5
Marquette	115.2
Xavier	113.6
Providence	111.7
Seton Hall	109.2
Villanova	108.7
St. John’s	106.8
Butler	104.0
DePaul	101.8
Georgetown	99.3
Big Sky
Team	Rating
Eastern Washington	103.0
Montana St.	102.7
Montana	99.7
Weber St.	97.7
Northern Colorado	96.3
Sacramento St.	96.0
Portland St.	95.9
Northern Arizona	95.8
Idaho St.	94.6
Idaho	92.5
Big South
Team	Rating
Longwood	101.1
UNC Asheville	100.5
Radford	99.3
Gardner Webb	99.0
Campbell	96.0
Winthrop	96.0
USC Upstate	94.1
High Point	92.4
Charleston Southern	91.7
Presbyterian	89.5
Big Ten
Team	Rating
Purdue	116.9
Indiana	113.5
Maryland	113.3
Illinois	112.9
Rutgers	112.3
Michigan St.	112.0
Iowa	111.7
Northwestern	110.8
Michigan	110.8
Penn St.	109.9
Ohio St.	109.1
Wisconsin	108.6
Nebraska	105.6
Minnesota	98.1
Big West
Team	Rating
UC Irvine	104.5
UC Santa Barbara	102.4
Cal St. Fullerton	102.0
Hawaii	101.9
UC Riverside	101.5
UC Davis	100.7
Long Beach St.	100.5
UC San Diego	94.2
Cal St. Bakersfield	93.1
Cal Poly	91.9
Cal St. Northridge	91.0
Colonial Athletic
Team	Rating
Charleston	108.1
Hofstra	105.0
Towson	101.8
UNC Wilmington	100.1
Drexel	98.8
Delaware	96.6
Northeastern	92.8
North Carolina A&T	92.1
William & Mary	91.6
Elon	90.9
Stony Brook	90.8
Hampton	88.5
Monmouth	87.2
Conference USA
Team	Rating
Florida Atlantic	110.4
UAB	109.1
North Texas	107.5
Charlotte	103.1
Middle Tennessee	102.5
Louisiana Tech	101.1
Western Kentucky	100.5
Rice	99.1
UTEP	99.0
Florida Int’l	96.8
UTSA	91.3
Horizon
Team	Rating
Youngstown St.	103.0
Wright St.	99.1
Northern Kentucky	99.1
Cleveland St.	98.8
Detroit Mercy	98.2
Purdue Fort Wayne	96.6
Robert Morris	96.1
Milwaukee	95.9
Oakland	94.3
IUPUI	83.8
Green Bay	82.8
Independents
Team	Rating
Chicago St.	93.5
Hartford	81.6
Ivy League
Team	Rating
Yale	107.5
Princeton	102.6
Cornell	102.0
Penn	101.9
Harvard	100.1
Brown	99.0
Dartmouth	94.0
Columbia	87.7
Metro Atlantic
Team	Rating
Iona	107.1
Quinnipiac	100.0
Siena	99.3
Rider	98.7
Fairfield	95.8
Niagara	95.3
Canisius	94.2
Mount St. Mary’s	93.1
Manhattan	93.0
Saint Peter’s	92.3
Marist	91.5
Mid-American
Team	Rating
Kent St.	107.3
Toledo	105.6
Akron	104.2
Ohio	102.0
Ball St.	101.0
Buffalo	98.9
Northern Illinois	95.3
Bowling Green	93.4
Miami (O)	92.8
Western Michigan	91.7
Eastern Michigan	91.2
Central Michigan	90.6
Mideastern Athletic
Team	Rating
Norfolk St.	99.3
North Carolina Central	98.6
Howard	95.3
Maryland Eastern Shore	94.8
Morgan St.	92.5
Coppin St.	88.1
South Carolina St.	87.9
Delaware St.	86.0
Missouri Valley
Team	Rating
Drake	108.1
Bradley	107.3
Indiana St.	105.4
Belmont	102.9
Southern Illinois	102.7
Missouri St.	100.6
Northern Iowa	98.2
Murray St.	97.2
Illinois St.	94.6
Valparaiso	94.2
Illinois Chicago	93.0
Evansville	88.0
Mountain West
Team	Rating
San Diego St.	113.2
Boise St.	111.6
Utah St.	111.0
Nevada	110.0
New Mexico	109.6
UNLV	106.5
Colorado St.	103.9
San Jose St.	102.7
Wyoming	101.1
Fresno St.	101.1
Air Force	100.3
Northeast
Team	Rating
Wagner	92.2
Merrimack	91.6
Fairleigh Dickinson	90.9
Stonehill	90.1
Sacred Heart	90.1
St. Francis PA	90.0
Central Connecticut	89.7
St. Francis NY	87.1
Long Island	80.3
Ohio Valley
Team	Rating
Morehead St.	95.4
SIU Edwardsville	94.9
UT-Martin	94.7
Southeast Missouri St.	94.0
Southern Indiana	93.8
Tennessee St.	93.5
Tennessee Tech	92.4
Little Rock	90.2
Lindenwood	88.7
Eastern Illinois	88.4
Pac-12
Team	Rating
UCLA	118.5
Arizona	116.7
USC	111.0
Oregon	110.6
Utah	109.3
Colorado	108.9
Arizona St.	108.7
Washington St.	108.6
Stanford	106.0
Washington	105.0
Oregon St.	98.4
California	95.3
Patriot League
Team	Rating
Colgate	103.6
Navy	99.5
Army	95.3
Boston University	94.4
Lafayette	94.3
American	94.0
Lehigh	93.8
Bucknell	92.3
Loyola (MD)	90.9
Holy Cross	88.7
Southeastern
Team	Rating
Alabama	120.5
Tennessee	118.1
Arkansas	114.7
Auburn	113.4
Texas A&M	112.6
Kentucky	112.5
Mississippi St.	110.4
Florida	110.3
Missouri	109.2
Vanderbilt	106.4
Mississippi	104.5
LSU	102.8
Georgia	102.6
South Carolina	98.1
Southern
Team	Rating
Furman	105.9
UNC Greensboro	104.2
Samford	102.6
Chattanooga	99.8
Wofford	97.1
Mercer	96.5
East Tennessee St.	96.2
Western Carolina	95.6
The Citadel	91.8
VMI	88.0
Southland
Team	Rating
Texas A&M CC	98.4
Northwestern St.	97.3
Nicholls St.	95.6
Southeastern Louisiana	94.3
Texas A&M Commerce	92.2
McNeese St.	88.8
Incarnate Word	88.1
New Orleans	87.5
Houston Christian	86.7
Lamar	85.4
Southwestern Athletic
Team	Rating
Grambling	97.8
Southern	95.4
Alcorn St.	95.0
Prairie View A&M	93.7
Texas Southern	92.3
Jackson St.	91.4
Alabama A&M	90.8
Arkansas Pine Bluff	90.1
Alabama St.	88.4
Bethune Cookman	86.7
Florida A&M	86.5
Mississippi Valley St.	85.5
Summit
Team	Rating
Oral Roberts	108.0
South Dakota St.	100.5
St. Thomas	98.1
North Dakota St.	97.5
Western Illinois	93.9
UMKC	93.3
North Dakota	92.9
Denver	92.4
South Dakota	91.9
Omaha	90.5
Sun Belt
Team	Rating
Marshall	107.6
James Madison	105.5
Southern Miss	103.9
Louisiana	103.9
South Alabama	103.5
Troy	101.6
Old Dominion	100.3
Appalachian St.	100.1
Georgia Southern	97.9
Texas St.	97.1
Coastal Carolina	94.6
Georgia St.	94.2
Louisiana Monroe	93.9
Arkansas St.	92.3
West Coast
Team	Rating
Gonzaga	116.5
Saint Mary’s	114.7
BYU	107.0
Santa Clara	106.2
San Francisco	104.4
Loyola Marymount	103.8
Portland	100.1
Pepperdine	99.0
San Diego	98.3
Pacific	97.8
Western Athletic
Team	Rating
Sam Houston St.	107.3
Utah Valley	105.6
Southern Utah	104.2
Grand Canyon	103.4
Stephen F. Austin	102.4
Seattle	101.3
Cal Baptist	100.9
Tarleton St.	100.4
Abilene Christian	99.3
New Mexico St.	99.3
Utah Tech	98.9
UT Arlington	95.9
UT Rio Grande Valley	94.6

Coming Later Today: Updated Bracketology

Coming Monday: Conference Tournament Action Commences

Sun Belt Conference Preview

In 2001, the Sun Belt Conference, having sponsored basketball for a quarter century with membership of many programs that didn’t have scholarship football, decided to add football to its sanctioned sports. For several years, the league languished as the weakest Division 1-A and later FBS conference. Teams left the league to join what was then a stronger Conference USA.

About five years ago, the league began to rapidly improve. Not only did it become the equal of Conference USA, when a couple of programs became really good, the SBC left CUSA in its rear view mirror and then passed the Mid-American Conference. The league planned to expand to 14 teams next year, but an 11th hour decision brought Marshall, Old Dominion, and Southern Mississippi into the league this year. Additionally, James Madison makes its FBS debut. This league has the potential to improve to the point where it is the equal of the Mountain West and American Athletic Conferences.

Sun Belt PiRate Ratings–Preseason

East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia St.	99.2	98.4	102.5	100.0
Appal. St.	96.1	98.0	98.9	97.7
Coastal Car.	92.7	94.1	94.9	93.9
Marshall	91.3	92.7	92.0	92.0
J. Madison	87.1	89.0	92.0	89.4
Old Dominion	89.3	89.3	89.4	89.3
Ga. Southern	86.5	85.9	87.0	86.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	95.8	96.2	98.4	96.8
Troy	90.6	90.8	91.9	91.1
South Alabama	85.2	85.5	86.4	85.7
Southern Miss.	85.0	85.5	85.1	85.2
UL-Monroe	82.1	82.6	81.4	82.0
Texas St.	80.3	81.2	81.3	80.9
Arkansas St.	80.0	81.6	80.5	80.7
Sun Belt	88.7	89.3	90.1	89.4

Sun Belt Conference Official Media Poll

		Votes
#	East	1st Place	Overall
1	Appalachian St.	10	94
2	Coastal Carolina	2	77
3	Georgia St.	1	68
4	Marshall	0	62
5	Georgia Southern	1	35
6	James Madison	0	31
7	Old Dominion	0	25
#	West	1st Place	Overall
1	Louisiana	12	95
2	South Alabama	2	79
3	Troy	0	76
4	Texas St.	0	41
5	Southern Miss.	0	40
6	Arkansas St.	0	37
7	UL-Monroe	0	24

The PiRate Ratings are meant to be used to predict the outcomes of games being played in the week that they are released and updated. They are not really meant to look forward past the next week of games, but nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.

East	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	7-1	9-4
Georgia St.	7-1	8-4
Coastal Carolina	6-2	8-4
Old Dominion	6-2	6-6
Marshall	3-5	6-6
James Madison	3-5	5-6
Georgia Southern	2-6	4-8
West	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	8-0	12-1
Troy	5-3	6-6
South Alabama	3-5	5-7
Southern Miss.	3-5	4-8
UL-Monroe	2-6	3-9
Texas St.	1-7	3-9
Arkansas St.	1-7	3-9

Louisiana picked to beat Appalachian St. in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game.

Conference USA Preview

If you are new to the PiRate Ratings, we have three different ratings, which are basically three different algorithms calculated using identical data.  The PiRate and Bias are closely correlated.  The Mean is a bit of an outlier.  The differences in the three ratings’ algorithms are designed to catch different outcomes in a season.  In some years, trends make one rating better than the others.  In some years, all three ratings move in lockstep and appear to be nearly identical.  Additionally, the process for updating the three different ratings differs for each one.  The PiRate has the most conservative updating formula, while the Bias has the most liberal updating formula.  The Mean has an average updating formula.

Wow!  It feels like last week, Alabama was toying with Ohio State to win the 2020-21 FBS National Championship!  If it feels like August 13th came about two months quicker than normal, maybe it has more to do with the fact that updating the PiRate Ratings was a much more involved process this Spring and Summer.  The issues with Covid totally messed up the 2020 season, and the new Transfer Portal led to players leaving school as late as July and waiting until the end of July to choose their new school, so updating the ratings became a two-fold process.  The old way of updating the ratings took place between Memorial Day Weekend and Mid-July.  Then, from Mid-July to last week, we had to perform a new update where, in essence, we had to treat about 165 of the top transfers as lost starters to their old team and as new starters to their new team.  

These 165 players represented 4293 basis points, or to put it into something meaningful to you, 4293 basis points in our ratings’ algorithms account for about 61.3 power rating points, give or take a point or two.  82 different FBS teams had a gain or loss of basis points from at least one player move involving these teams.  48 teams did not have a gain or loss of basis points, with 47 having no meaningful player movement, while the 48th team had a net of 0 basis points from their gain of a player and loss of a player where the players were basically of equal talent.

If you follow our ratings, you probably know that our 130 teams always average 100.0, as 100.0 is par.  When you see a team ranked at 111.3, that means they are 11.3 points better than the average team.  If a team is ranked at 92.8, that means they are 7.2 points weaker than the average team.  Thus, if there are 130 teams, and 100 is par, the grand total of team ratings must be 13,000.  So, if 82 teams had their ratings altered by a total of 61.3 points, the other 48 teams had to have their ratings altered as well so that the total was 13,000.  Those 61.3 points were not all in the same direction.  32.6 points came from improvement, while 28.7 points came from weakening.  The grand total of -3.9 points had to be distributed to the other 48 teams.  Basically 39 teams lost one tenth of a point, while the best nine teams of the 48 stayed stat.

Today, we begin previewing our first FBS conference.  Coming in at 11th place (last place) among the conferences is Conference USA.  Once considered an improved version of the Sun Belt Conference, CUSA has fallen several notches behind their Southern Group of 5 rival.  

In July, CUSA held its annual preseason meeting, and the media voted their preseason picks.  Here it is:

2021 CUSA Football Preseason Poll

EAST DIVISION

1. Marshall (17)
2. Florida Atlantic (6)
3. WKU (1)
4. Charlotte
5. Middle Tennessee
6. FIU
7. Old Dominion

WEST DIVISION

1. UAB (15)
2. UTSA (9)
3. Louisiana Tech
4. Southern Miss
5. Rice
6. North Texas
7. UTEP

How does this compare to the PiRate Ratings?  Take a look at our preseason ratings.

Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	93.4	93.4	93.6	93.4
Florida Atlantic	86.7	88.6	87.8	87.7
Middle Tennessee	83.4	83.1	84.7	83.7
Western Kentucky	81.7	83.6	82.8	82.7
Charlotte	78.8	79.6	80.2	79.5
Florida Int’l.	77.9	78.9	80.1	79.0
Old Dominion	71.2	71.9	71.2	71.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	95.4	95.2	94.9	95.2
U T S A	94.0	94.5	93.4	93.9
Rice	87.0	87.1	87.3	87.1
Louisiana Tech	86.9	87.4	85.2	86.5
Southern Miss.	83.3	85.2	84.5	84.4
North Texas	82.1	81.7	81.4	81.7
U T E P	76.3	77.2	74.4	76.0
CUSA Averages	84.1	84.8	84.4	84.4

While the PiRate Ratings are designed only to estimate the result of each team’s next game, we issue predicted standings every year just for fun.  Just because a team is ranked ahead of another, it doesn’t mean we are predicting them to win.  Our ratings have built in alterations to every team’s power rating based on depth and experience.  A team lacking depth may see their power rating fall as the season goes along, and we perceive that these poor depth teams will begin to show fatigue.  Likewise, a team with a lot of talent but low experience may see their power rating rise as the season goes along, and we perceive that these lesser experienced players gain enough experience for the game to slow down to them.

Here are our predicted won-loss records for CUSA.

CUSA East	Conf.	Overall
Marshall	6-2	8-5
Florida Atlantic	6-2	8-4
Florida Int’l.	4-4	5-7
Western Kentucky	4-4	5-7
Middle Tennessee	3-5	5-7
Old Dominion	0-8	1-11
CUSA West	Conf.	Overall
UTSA	7-1	10-3 *
UAB	7-1	8-4
Rice	6-2	7-5
Louisiana Tech	6-2	7-5
Southern Miss.	3-5	4-8
UTEP	1-7	3-9
UTSA picked to win CUSA Championship Game

PiRate Ratings Special Money Line Play(s)

Last Friday, we issued a special Money Line Parlay play that went off at +250, and it won.  We had help getting the five winning teams at relatively low odds together.  But, it was up to us to put the parlay together, as none of the “Sharps” that tutored us on how to play smarter actually ended up with this parlay (until one person saw it on this site and did play a small wager on it.

This week, we are swimming in the deep end without the swim instructors.  Can we find another rare gem with a big payout?  We doubt it, but here goes any way.

Remember, the members of the PiRate Ratings NEVER wager money on the picks we issue; actually, we just don’t wager at all, and if you are planning to wager real money, please do not do so based on what you read here.

Even the top Sharps that are now teaching us more about what we have been doing wrong in recent years only win about 62 to 65% of their wagers, and they wager 10-20 games a week.  If you took their advice but only chose a couple of their wagers, the chances that you’d win big would be minimal, because they have to play double digit games a week to avoid risk and let the law of averages tilt to their side.

Since only about 1% of those that wager regularly are profitable, and since 99% of these winners wouldn’t think of giving you advice, realize that practically every service out there that is marketing their talents to you are profiting off your money and not their wagers.  If they were really successful players, they would never offer their advice to the public.  They’d keep it to themselves and selfishly continue to win.

Now that you know that we are giving you these picks, you should understand these two things.

1. We are not part of the 1% of Sharps that enjoy 6-figure and 7-figure annual careers, as we do not wager one cent.

2. Our selections provided to you for free are worth exactly what you paid for it.  If we really knew what we were doing, then we might be in Las Vegas with some of our friends placing wagers and never telling anybody else what we selected.

 

This week’s theme is trying to find incredible value betting a parlay of underdogs.  We looked at all the college games this week and isolated on five teams we believe stand decent chances to win outright as underdogs.  

We actually issued individual Money Line selections on each of these five teams in individual plays, because we feel like three of these teams should pull the actual upset.

The five games where we have studied the personnel groupings and looked for extras like teams playing a sandwich game between two more important games involve these games.

 

Marshall over Cincinnati

Duke over Virginia Tech

Kansas State over Oklahoma State

Baylor over Iowa State

North Carolina State over Florida State.

 

You can play each of these game as singular money line plays and get better than +120 odds on each team.

At the time of this writing, you can get Duke at +125 at a couple of the big books in Nevada.  You can get North Carolina State at +210.  Both Marshall and Kansas State can be found at +165.  Baylor can be wagered at +130.

What if you began combining these teams into 2 or 3 game parlays?  The potential odds are incredible.  Yes, the potential for winning is minimal, but for a little pretend money, you could make a pretend killing if you pick the right 2 or 3 teams.

There’s the rub.  If you play all five teams as single money line upset choices, you stand a decent chance of making a minor imaginary profit.  But, if just one of the potential big payout parlays pays off, you could make five times what you put in.

Let’s look at some examples.  We can’t list them all, as there are too many combinations.

 

 

2-Game Parlays

Marshall over Cincinnati and Duke over Virginia Tech: +485

Marshall over Cincinnati and Kansas St. over Oklahoma St.: +496

Kansas St. over Oklahoma St. & North Carolina St. over Florida St.: +722

 

 

3-Game Parlays

Kansas St. over Oklahoma St., Baylor over Iowa St., & NC ST. over Florida St.: +1790

Marshall, Kansas St., and North Carolina St. all in upset wins: +2036

Have fun making combinations of these games.  Here’s the complete crazy parlay where you combine all five of these teams.

If you bet Marshall, Kansas St., North Carolina St., Baylor, and Duke all to win in upsets, the money line parlay payout would be:

 

+10953

Yes, if you were crazy enough to put $100 in Nevada on these five teams to win in upset games, and all five pulled off their upsets, you would cash a winning ticket of $11,053!

If you only put $10 on this parlay, you could cash $1,105.

If you just put that same dollar you use playing Mega Millions, and it won, you’d pocket more than $110, and your chances to win on this parlay are multitudes better than winning the lottery.

—————————————————————————————————————————————-

Did you hear about the guy that bet 89 cents on a ton of games last week on a parlay, and won every game heading into Monday Night Football.  Had the Washington Redskins won that final bet for him, he would have taken that 89 cents and cashed in a half million dollars!

When the Bears won the game, the naive media announced that the poor sap lost.  Without knowing for sure, we bet that this guy won big, maybe even 6-figures.

The media is never the best place to receive information on anything.  In this case, we are confident that the bettor hedged his wager on Monday morning.  Obviously, he probably didn’t have $100,000 to invest on the MNF game, but he probably found a willing money lender to purchase that ticket for 100 grand.

If you had $100,000, and you bought that ticket, then the guy that spent 89 cents just won $99,999.19 on his wager, and he leaves quite happy as a big winner, at least until he realizes his tax bracket just went way up.

The person that bought that potential half-million dollar ticket then played as many different tickets he needed on Monday afternoon until he had $200,000 in wagers on the Bears.  It would have taken him going to multiple books, but it is easily done.

Let’s look at the money lender on Monday afternoon.

1. $100,000 spent buying the ticket

2. $200,000 spent buying tickets on the Bears.

If the Redskins had won the last game on that parlay, the lender collects the half million dollar payout and profits by $200,000 since he invested $300,000.

If the Bears had won (which they did), then the half-million dollar parlay is trashed, but the lender cashes in a winning ticket on his Bears bet and receives $400,000.  The profit is only $100,000 in this case.

Technically, the lender could have places additional bets on the Redskins, which would have brought his guaranteed payout to around $135,000 no matter what the outcome, but we just wanted to show you an example in hedging to get a guaranteed win.

If you had a 50% chance of realizing a 33% of 67% return on your investment in 24 hours, you are guaranteeing yourself an average ROI of 50% in one day!  Now, how many of you with some seed money are planning to relocate to Nevada and do some hedge playing?  Alas, we here are more like the 89 cent investor.

2019 Conference USA Football Preview

Welcome to the 2019-2020 College Football season on the SS Touchdown, your favorite PiRate ship of analytical merriment.

The PiRates have spent hours upon hours doing research this summer getting ready for another football season.  2018 was an incredible year for our ratings, as we finished at the top of the Prediction Tracker against the spread in college football, and the best against the spread and at picking winners in NFL football.  We have seen a steady bump in additional readers, so we hope we can follow up with another great year.

Today, we begin previewing one NCAA FBS conference per day for the next 11 days.  In past years, we published lengthy previews, but after hearing from a lot of you tell us that you come here for the stats, we are going to try to become the Sergeant Joe Friday of football, “Just the Stats.”  Oh, we’ll throw in a little Joe Gannon and include something from out of left field when something warrants it.

We begin with Conference USA, the #11 rated conference to begin the PiRate Ratings season.

The Official Media Poll

Conference USA Media Poll
East Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes
1	Marshall	14
2	Florida Int’l.	9
3	Florida Atlantic	3
4	Middle Tennessee	0
5	Western Kentucky	0
6	Old Dominion	0
7	Charlotte	0
West Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes
1	North Texas	20
2	Southern Miss.	4
3	Louisiana Tech	0
4	UAB	2
5	UTSA	0
6	Rice	0
7	UTEP	0

For some reason, Conference USA did not release the total vote count by the media.  We only received the First Place Votes and position each team finished in the voting.  Additionally, the media did not vote on an overall champion.

 

The PiRate Ratings

Preseason PiRate Ratings–CUSA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Int’l.	93.6	93.7	94.4	93.9
Marshall	92.9	92.6	93.8	93.1
Florida Atlantic	91.7	91.1	92.4	91.7
Middle Tennessee	90.5	90.0	90.6	90.4
Western Kentucky	87.5	88.7	89.0	88.4
Charlotte	86.6	87.0	87.0	86.9
Old Dominion	75.1	76.0	75.1	75.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Southern Miss.	93.4	92.2	93.7	93.1
North Texas	92.5	92.3	93.4	92.7
Louisiana Tech	90.7	90.8	90.8	90.7
U A B	88.2	89.1	88.7	88.7
U T S A	77.5	80.0	77.2	78.2
Rice	77.7	78.8	77.0	77.9
U T E P	67.9	72.6	68.3	69.6
CUSA Averages	86.1	86.8	86.5	86.5

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  Then, if the Captain didn’t like the result, he swung his sword and chose them by himself.  Actually, the conference records had to be balanced, and all the half-win votes made it a mess, so it’s probably 100% his opinion.

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss
East Division
Pos	Team	CUSA	Overall
1	Florida Atlantic	6-2	8-5
2	Marshall	6-2	9-3
3	Florida Int’l.	5-3	7-5
4	Western Kentucky	4-4	5-7
5	Middle Tennessee	4-4	5-7
6	Charlotte	3-5	5-7
7	Old Dominion	1-7	2-10
West Division
Pos	Team	CUSA	Overall
1	Southern Miss.	7-1	9-4*
2	Louisiana Tech	6-2	9-3
3	North Texas	6-2	7-5
4	UAB	5-3	8-4
5	UTSA	2-6	3-9
6	Rice	1-7	1-11
7	UTEP	0-8	1-11
*	Southern Miss. picked to win CUSA Championship

 

Bowl Projections

Bowl	Team
Bahamas	Southern Miss.
First Responder	Marshall
Gasparilla	Cincinnati
New Mexico	Louisiana Tech
New Orleans	UAB
Alternate Bowl Teams
Frisco	Florida Int’l
Independence	North Texas

Coaches That Could Move To FBS Power Conference Schools

Seth Littrell–North Texas

Lane Kiffin–Florida Atlantic

Jay Hopson–Southern Miss.

 

Coaches on The Hot Seat

Dana Dimel–UTEP

Frank Wilson–UTSA

Bobby Wilder–Old Dominion

 

Top Quarterbacks

Mason Fine–North Texas

Tyler Johnson III–UAB

James Morgan–Florida Int’l.

 

Best Offense

North Texas

Florida Int’l.

Marshall

 

Best Defense

Marshall

Louisiana Tech

Southern Miss.

 

Coming Tomorrow–The Mid-American Conference

 

 

 

2018 Conference USA Preview

Note: The preseason ratings you see in the previews may not be the same as the ratings you see for the first game. We update every team’s rating based on player injuries, changes to the depth charts, and other factors that may change during preseason practice.

Some of our Group of 5 Conference won-loss predictions were figured before the beginning of August preseason practices. Thus, it could be that a player or players on some teams have already suffered season-ending or multiple game injuries or have left their teams, and these won-loss predictions no longer accurately reflect our ratings. We hope that by the time we preview the Power 5 conferences, we will know who is not going to be available (players and head coaches).

 

Conference USA is an interesting league. Annually, it comes in as the second weakest conference overall to begin each season, sometimes just a fraction ahead of the Sun Belt. Yet. this league produces a plethora of bowl-eligible teams. Last year was no different, as 10 of the 14 schools earned bowl eligibility, and nine received bowl invitations.

Last year, after a slow start that saw his team lose big to Navy and Wisconsin and then suffer a heartbreaking loss at Buffalo, Lane Kiffin’s Florida Atlantic team caught fire and won their final 10 games. Included in the season-ending sweep were a CUSA Championship Game title and a victory in the Boca Raton Bowl, both by fat margins. The Owls finished the season averaging better than 40 points and almost 500 total yards per game, but Kiffin will have to rebuild on this side of the ball. Expect defense to help FAU contend for another conference title.

Marshall and Middle Tennessee should be FAU’s chief competition for the title. Coach Doc Holliday is one of the best recruiters in the Group of 5 conferences, and he has a lot of experienced talent returning to Marshall. If not for the fact that the Thundering Herd will have to break in a new quarterback and has no player that has thrown even one pass for the school in a game. Additionally, there will be a new offensive coordinator, as Tim Cramsey comes to Huntington from Sam Houston State and brings a new offense.  Of course, his 2017 SHU offense merely averaged better than 43 points per game and proved to be powerful running and passing the ball.

Middle Tennessee has the top returning quarterback in the division in Brent Stockstill, but the Blue Raiders have an iffy secondary and could be forced to outscore opponents every week.

The West Division looks like a three-team race. North Texas, Lousiana Tech, and UAB could finish in a three-way tie, with Southern Mississippi a distant fourth. Having two of the weakest FBS teams in the same division in Rice and UTEP, means that the other four division rivals can almost count on two conference victories already.

North Texas has the top overall quarterback in the league and maybe the best overall in the Lone Star State in Mason Fine. As a sophomore last season, he finished 6th nationally in passing yards, and he is the leading passing yardage leader among returning quarterbacks. Fine has most of his receiving corps returning this year, so if he gets just a little better pass protection, he could lead the Mean Green to the best season in Denton since Hayden Fry coached there in the late 1970’s. UNT Coach Seth Littrell is on a fast track to taking over a big time program. Every stop along the way, the team he has coached as an assistant set passing and total offense records. Mentoring Fine is not the first time he has trained a top prospect into a big-time talent. He previously tutored Nick Foles at Arizona.

UAB coach Bill Clark takes a back seat to nobody. How’s this for an incredible feat of wizardry? Clark stayed with the program when the school dropped football for two seasons. With just a handful of recruits to work with and a promise of playing again in the future, he recruited enough talent and then “coached ’em up.” Picked to maybe win two games by most pundits last year in their return to the game, UAB enjoyed an 8-win season and bid to the Bahamas Bowl. With 14 starters returning from last year’s first team back in football and a decent recruiting class, UAB should be right there with North Texas in the West Division race.

Skip Holtz is the big name in the West Division of CUSA, and his Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have to be considered one of the tri-favorites in this division. His team underperformed a bit last year but still managed to win seven times and make an appearance in the Frisco Bowl, where LT looked more like the team people expected them to be, dusting SMU 51-10. The Techsters have a lot of returning talent, and if said talent plays more like they did in the bowl and less like they did against Southern Miss and Rice, then the Bulldogs could make it back to the top of the division.

Here is how the CUSA media voted in the preseason poll.

Team
East Division	1st Place Votes
1. Florida Atlantic	22
2. Marshall	4
3. Middle Tennessee	0
4. Florida Int’l.	0
5. Western Kentucky	0
6. Old Dominion	0
7. Charlotte	0
Team
West Division	1st Place Votes
1. North Texas	18
2. Louisiana Tech	4
3. UAB	3
4. Southern Miss.	1
5. UTSA	0
6t. Rice	0
6t. UTEP	0

There were no votes for overall conference champion.

The PiRate Ratings basically confirm the media’s preseason opinions.

Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	0-0	0-0	102.0	103.0	103.3	102.8
Marshall	0-0	0-0	94.3	97.1	95.0	95.5
Middle Tennessee	0-0	0-0	91.4	93.4	93.0	92.6
Old Dominion	0-0	0-0	87.5	91.3	89.0	89.3
Florida Int’l.	0-0	0-0	82.0	86.8	82.6	83.8
W. Kentucky	0-0	0-0	80.4	84.6	81.2	82.1
Charlotte	0-0	0-0	76.2	78.7	76.3	77.1
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	0-0	0-0	93.8	96.4	95.2	95.1
N. Texas	0-0	0-0	93.0	96.3	93.6	94.3
U A B	0-0	0-0	91.1	93.6	91.5	92.1
Southern Miss.	0-0	0-0	81.6	85.0	82.1	82.9
U T S A	0-0	0-0	80.2	85.6	81.6	82.5
Rice	0-0	0-0	71.4	74.5	69.7	71.9
U T E P	0-0	0-0	69.3	72.5	68.6	70.1
CUSA Averages			85.3	88.5	85.9	86.6

New Coaches

When a large majority of schools gain bowl eliibility, there are not going to be a lot of coaching dismissals. Unless coaches get better jobs, they will return to their respective schools. As mentioned previously, Rice and UTEP ranked in the bottom 10 of all FBS schools last year, and these two teams will welcome new leaders.

Rice hired MIke Bloomgren and hopes to get the same results that Bloomgren produced as offensive coordinator at Stanford. He also has experience coaching with the New York Jets during the Rex Ryan era. The Owls will use power running mixed with play-action passing and hope to improve on 16 points and 330 yards per game on offense. Thanks to home games with Prairie View and UTEP, Bloomgren should double the win total from one to two.

UTEP wore the collar last year, going 0-12 and losing by an average of 25 points per game. The Miners hired 55-year old Dana Dimel, who for the last decade has been the offensive coordinator at Kansas State. Dimel has past head coaching stops at Wyoming and Houston. He succeeded in Laramie but failed in Houston. In year one, he faces a gargantuan rebuilding process, but you cannot really go south from 0-12, unless you repeat with another 0-12 that includes a loss to an FCS team. Northern Arizona will be a tough FCS opponent for the Miners.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

East
Team	Conference	Overall
Florida Atlantic	8-0	11-2 *
Marshall	7-1	9-3
Middle Tennessee	6-2	7-5
Old Dominion	4-4	6-6
Western Kentucky	3-5	5-7
Florida Int’l.	2-6	3-9
Charlotte	0-8	1-11
West
Team	Conference	Overall
North Texas	6-2	9-4
UAB	6-2	9-3
Louisiana Tech	6-2	8-4
Southern Miss.	4-4	5-7
UTSA	3-5	5-7
Rice	1-7	2-11
UTEP	0-8	1-11
* Fla. Atlantic picked to win CUSA Championship Game

Bowl Tie-ins
CUSA does not have a set bowl order. They send teams to bowls to create the best overall matchups.

These are the bowls tie-ins for 2018.

Bahamas Bowl in Nassau, Bahamas
Boca Raton Bowl in Boca Raton, FL
Gasparilla Bowl in St. Petersburg, FL
Hawaii Bowl in Honolulu, HI
Heart of Dallas Bowl in Dallas, TX
New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque, NM
New Orleans Bowl in New Orleans, LA

There are secondary bowl agreements with the Frisco Bowl in Frisco, Texas, and the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana, if those bowl need at-large alternates.

Coming Tomorrow–The Mid-American Conference

2016 Conference USA Football Ratings Preview

Conference USA has lost a lot of its prestige in recent years because the league has lost several teams with historic football success. At one time, Houston, Tulsa, East Carolina, Cincinnati, Louisville, and Memphis were members of the league.

In current times, CUSA has been able to barely avoid the basement as the weakest conference, maintaining a small edge over the Sun Belt.

The league race should be competitive this year, as three teams appear to be talented enough to contend for the East Division title. The West looks less competitive, but after prohibitive favorite Southern Mississippi, there are two or three teams capable of making a surprise run to the division title.

In the last two years, Marshall and Western Kentucky have been contenders for the automatic New Year’s Six Bowls, but no CUSA team figures to be in contention this year.

Here is a look at the Pre-season media poll. No vote counts were issued or for that matter, the media did not vote on overall conference champion.

CUSA-East
#	Team
1	Middle Tennessee
2	Western Kentucky
3	Marshall
4	Florida Atlantic
5	Florida Int’l.
6	Old Dominion
7	Charlotte
CUSA-West
#	Team
1	Southern Miss.
2	Louisiana Tech
3	Rice
4	UTEP
5	UTSA
6	North Texas

This is how the PiRate Ratings see the divisional races

Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	99.1	93.1	99.8	97.3
Marshall	92.3	96.7	94.1	94.4
Middle Tennessee	92.0	94.6	93.1	93.3
Old Dominion	85.7	89.1	86.3	87.0
Florida Atlantic	84.8	88.5	86.7	86.7
Florida Int’l.	82.3	89.5	84.2	85.3
Charlotte	72.9	81.0	74.5	76.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Southern Miss.	92.7	92.1	93.8	92.9
Rice	84.7	94.1	85.1	88.0
Louisiana Tech	85.4	88.6	86.0	86.7
UTSA	78.4	87.1	80.9	82.2
UTEP	74.5	79.5	75.8	76.6
North Texas	74.0	76.6	73.7	74.8
CUSA Averages	84.5	88.5	85.7	86.3

 

The PiRate Ratings are best used just to look forward to the next week game schedule.  These ratings cannot really be used to predict won-loss records, so with that caveat, here are the projected won-loss records based on the ratings alone.

Conference USA Projected Standings
East Division	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Marshall	7-1	10-3 *	Hawaii
Western Kentucky	7-1	9-3	New Orleans
Middle Tennessee	6-2	7-5	Heart of Dallas
Florida Int’l.	4-4	6-6	Bowl Eligible
Old Dominion	4-4	6-6	Bowl Eligible
Florida Atlantic	3-5	5-7
Charlotte	0-8	1-11
West Division	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Southern Miss.	8-0	10-3	Boca Raton
Rice	5-3	6-6	New Mexico
Louisiana Tech	4-4	6-6	Arizona
UTSA	3-5	4-8
UTEP	1-7	3-9
North Texas	0-8	1-11
* Marshall to win CUSA Championship Game

Next Preview: Wednesday, August 17–Mid-American Conference Preview

 

 

 

 

 

2015 Conference USA Preview

In today’s second conference preview, we take a look at Conference USA.  Last year, Marshall was oh so close to earning the league’s first ever major bowl bid, but the Thundering Herd dropped a heartbreaker in their final regular season game to Western Kentucky in a game that looked more like basketball on turf.  WKU won that contest 67-66, as both teams topped 700 total yards.

This year, Western Kentucky figures to be the hunted, while Marshall is the hunter.  The two rivals square off in Bowling Green, KY, on the Friday after Thanksgiving, and the winner should represent the East Division in the CUSA Championship Game.

Middle Tennessee has never won the conference title or even the East Division title, but the Blue Raiders have consistently stayed in the upper tier of teams every season.  2015 should be no different: look for MT to become bowl eligible but not compete for the division title.

Coach Ron Turner took over a Florida International program that had fallen on hard times, and he guided the Panthers to a 1-11 finish in his first season.  Last year, FIU improved by three games and suffered four close losses.  Look for the Panthers to win more of those close games this year, and FIU could be the surprise contender in the East.  We expect Turner’s crew to compete for bowl eligibility.

Old Dominion eeked out a .500 record last year by winning its final three games by the narrowest of margins.  Gone is the school’s all-time leading passer and all-time leading receiver, but the Monarchs have enough returning talent and a favorable enough schedule to repeat their 6-6 record.

Florida Atlantic will avoid the cellar this year because there is a new team in the FBS, but the Owls are clearly a bottom feeder this season.  Coach Charlie Partridge did a fine job in year one with very little depth, but he guided the Owls to an upset over WKU and had the Owls at 3-4 before the team collapsed in the final month due to fatigue.  It will be another long year in Boca Raton, but Partridge will eventually turn things around.

Welcome the Charlotte 49ers to the world of FBS football.  Unlike a lot of schools that have a long history at lower classifications, Charlotte is only in its third year of football history.  The 49ers finished 5-6 in both of the two prior seasons, but those five wins came against the likes of Johnson C. Smith, Wesley, Chowan, and Campbell.  The 2015 schedule sees 11 FBS schools including a road trip to Kentucky.  It will be a long season for Coach Brad Lambert’s club, as the 49ers will have to play above their talent level to win more than one game.

In the West Division, Louisiana Tech is the clear-cut favorite, but the Bulldogs are not infallible.  Former Florida quarterback Jeff Driskel will try to be an excellent game-manager for Coach Skip Holtz, but he has an excellent group of receivers and pass-catching backs, so look for his passing statistics to improve.

Rice has been to bowl games for three consecutive seasons, and the Owls should make it four in a row in 2015.  Coach David Bailiff has to rebuild his defense with the loss of seven of his top nine tacklers, but his offense will control the ball and keep the young defense off the field.

Our surprise sleeper team in the West is Southern Miss.  The Golden Eagles tanked when former coach Larry Fedora left for North Carolina, winning just four games in the last three years.  Third year coach Todd Monken’s offense should begin to look more like the Oklahoma State offense where he coached under Mike Gundy.  USM should score more than 25 points per game for the first time since 2011, and the record should be above .500 in the league.  A tough non-conference schedule which includes games against Mississippi State and Nebraska is the only thing that will prevent the Eagles from topping .500 overall.  Still, we see this team breaking even and earning a bowl bid this year.

Sean Kugler’s UTEP Miners were the big surprise in the league last year, going 7-5 in the regular season and earning a trip to the New Mexico Bowl.  This year, UTEP has too many holes to fill on both sides of the ball to repeat their success.  Look for the Miners to see a record reversal.

North Texas has suffered through nine losing seasons in the last 10 years.  Coach Dan McCarney is considered one of the more competent head coaches in the game, but even the most competent coaches cannot win without the horses.  The Mean Green have ponies, especially on the defensive side of the ball, so it will be another long year in Denton.

UT-San Antonio was supposed to contend for the 2014 CUSA West Division Title and the overall league title, and the Roadrunners began the season by trouncing Houston by 20 points.  Then, the season turned sour in San Antonio, as the Roadrunners walked home to a 4-8 record.  The bulk of the experienced roster is now gone, and this team looks like a threat to wear the collar in league play.

Here is how the media voted at the CUSA media days earlier this summer.

Conference USA Media Poll
Pos.	Team
East Division
1	Western Kentucky
2	Marshall
3	Middle Tennessee
4	Florida Atlantic
5	Florida Int’l
6	Old Dominion
7	Charlotte
West Division
1	Louisiana Tech
2	Rice
3	UTEP
4	Southern Miss
5	North Texas
6	UTSA

Here is the media’s preseason all-CUSA team.

Conference USA Preseason All-Conference Team
Offense	Player		School
Quarterback	Brandon Doughty		Western Kentucky
Running Back	Leon Allen		Western Kentucky
Running Back	Kenneth Dixon		Louisiana Tech
Running Back	Devon Johnson		Marshall
Running Back	Aaron Jones		UTEP
Wide Receiver	Jared Dangerfield		Western Kentucky
Wide Receiver	Carlos Harris		North Texas
Wide Receiver	Zach Pascal		Old Dominion
Wide Receiver	Trent Taylor		Louisiana Tech
Tight End	Jonnu Smith		Florida Int’l
Offensive Line	Jordan Budwig		Florida Int’l
Offensive Line	Darius Johnson		Middle Tennessee
Offensive Line	Kaydon Kirby		North Texas
Offensive Line	Andrew Reue		Rice
Offensive Line	Clint Van Horn		Marshall
Defense	Player		School
Defensive Line	Vernon Butler		Louisiana Tech
Defensive Line	Jason Neill		UTSA
Defensive Line	Jarquez Samuel		Marshall
Defensive Line	Michael Smith		Southern Miss
Defensive Line	Michael Wakefield		Florida Int’l
Linebacker	T. T. Barber		Middle Tennessee
Linebacker	Drew Douglas		UTSA
Linebacker	D. J. Hunter		Marshall
Defensive Back	Kevin Byard		Middle Tennessee
Defensive Back	Crevon LeBlanc		Florida Atlantic
Defensive Back	Richard Leonard		Florida Int’l
Defensive Back	Bennett Okotcha		UTSA
Defensive Back	Wonderful Terry		Western Kentucky
Defensive Back	Xavier Woods		Louisiana Tech
Special Teams	Player		School
Kicker	Trevor Moore		North Texas
Punter	Tyler Williams		Marshall
Kick Returner	Autrey Golden		UTEP
Punt Returner	Richard Leonard		Florida Int’l
Long Snapper	Matt Cincotta		Marshall

Here are our three computer ratings and average for each of the teams.

Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	100.6	98.6	101.7	100.3
Marshall	97.1	96.6	98.0	97.2
Middle Tennessee	93.1	92.6	92.5	92.7
Florida International	88.5	90.6	90.1	89.7
Old Dominion	82.3	89.6	81.5	84.5
Florida Atlantic	82.4	86.6	83.1	84.0
Charlotte	68.7	71.6	68.4	69.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	98.9	96.6	99.7	98.4
Rice	86.0	90.6	86.2	87.6
UTEP	84.5	89.2	84.6	86.1
Southern Mississippi	85.0	84.8	83.3	84.4
North Texas	81.4	88.6	82.7	84.2
UT-San Antonio	72.5	80.6	72.6	75.2
CUSA Averages	86.2	89.0	86.5	87.2

And, here are the PiRate Ratings won-loss predictions and bowl projections.

PiRate Ratings Predicted Records
Pos	Team	Conf.	Overall	Bowl
East Division
1	Western Kentucky	7-1	10-3 *	Bahamas
2	Marshall	7-1	11-1	St. Petersburg
3	Middle Tennessee	5-3	6-6	New Orleans
4	Florida Int’l	5-3	6-6	Arizona %
5	Old Dominion	4-4	6-6	At-Large
6	Florida Atlantic	1-7	2-10	None
7	Charlotte	0-8	1-11	None
West Division
1	Louisiana Tech	7-1	9-4 ^	Boca Raton
2	Rice	5-3	7-5	New Mexico
3	Southern Miss	5-3	6-6	Heart of Dallas
4	UTEP	3-5	5-7	None
5	North Texas	2-6	3-9	None
6	UTSA	1-7	1-11	None
*	Wins Title Game
^	Loses Title Game
%	The Arizona Bowl has no sponsor and may not be played in 2015

Coming Next: The Mid-American Conference

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Football Playoffs and Bowl Projections

For the projected bowl matchups, as well as ratings and predicted spreads for both college and pro, go to our website at:

http://www.piratings.webs.com

There are 38 bowls plus the National Championship Game, meaning 76 teams out of the 128 total playing in the FBS. As of today, we project 79 teams to become bowl eligible, so just three 6-6 teams will be left out of the postseason party.

All won-loss records shown are predicted final records and not current records.

The Group of Five

These five conferences are the leagues competing for one guaranteed spot in a Big Six Bowl (actually one of the four NewYear’s Eve/Day big bowls not involved in the playoffs, since no Group of Five team will qualify for the playoffs).

As of today, Marshall from Conference USA figures to be the highest rated Group of Five team, as East Carolina fell out of contention with their loss to Temple. Central Florida’s loss at UConn knocked the AAC from consideration. Should Marshall stumble, the door is now open for both Boise State and Colorado State to sneak into the top position. Boise would be there already had the Broncos not lost at Air Force, while CSU might have placed themselves on the cuff of contention for the playoffs had they won their game at Boise and stood at 9-0 today.

American Athletic Conference
The AAC balloon has deflated with the upset losses of both East Carolina and Central Florida. While the league is out of the Big Six picture for now, it promises to be possibly the most incredible finish of the conference races. Our prognosticators here now believe there is a credible chance that this league could end in a six-way tie for first at 6-2 in conference play between Central Florida, East Carolina, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, and Temple. The league has five guaranteed bowl bids, so one of these six would have to earn an at-large bowl invitation. The AAC should have no problem placing that sixth bowl eligible team in a bowl.

1. Birmingham Bowl: East Carolina (6-2/9-3)
2. Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida (6-2/8-4)
3. Miami Beach Bowl: Cincinnati (6-2/8-4)
4. Military Bowl: Temple (6-2/8-4)
5. Armed Forces Bowl: Houston (6-2/8-4)
6. Independence Bowl (at-large invitation): Memphis (6-2/8-4)

Conference USA
Doc Holliday may be the best college football recruiter in America, and his Marshall Thundering Herd may be the best CUSA team in the league’s history. Marshall has five games remaining in November and December standing in its way of a probable Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl bid. A November 22 game at UAB could be tricky, and a probable CUSA Championship Game tilt against Louisiana Tech is the biggest obstacle in the Herd’s trampling of their schedule.

We have removed Western Kentucky from the prospective bowl eligible teams and added UTEP. Rice is making another second half of the season run like Coach David Bailiff’s Owls have done the last two seasons. To run the table the rest of the way in 2014, Rice will have to pull off major upsets on the road against Marshall and Louisiana Tech and handle an improving UTEP team at home.

With Marshall expected to earn the Big Six Bowl invitation, this conference will have six bowl bids, and we predict there will be six bowl eligible teams.

1. Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Marshall (8-0/13-0)
2. Hawaii Bowl: Louisiana Tech (8-0/9-4)
3. Bahamas Bowl: UTEP (6-2/8-4)
4. Boca Raton Bowl: Middle Tennessee (6-2/7-5)
5. New Mexico Bowl: U A B (4-4/6-6)
6. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Rice (5-3/7-5)

Mid-American Conference
This is a down season of sorts in the MAC, mostly because there is a lot of parity and no dominant team. Northern Illinois is rebuilding, and Toledo and Bowling Green are not quite up to the standards of a typically dominant NIU team. This league figures to produce a glut of bowl eligible squads, probably two more than there is space avaialable in the bowl party.

1. Bahamas Bowl: Toledo (7-1/9-4)
2. Boca Raton Bowl: Northern Illinois (5-3/8-4)
3. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Western Michigan (6-2/8-4)
4. Camellia Bowl: Central Michigan (6-2/8-4)
5. GoDaddy.com Bowl: Akron (6-2/8-5)
6. Birmingham Bowl (at-large invitation): Bowling Green (5-3/7-5)

Also Bowl Eligible
Ohio (4-4/6-6)
Ball St. (5-3/6-6)

Mountain West Conference
This league does not have the notoriety it did when TCU was a member and earning trips to the Rose Bowl. Still, there are some quality teams in the MWC, namely Boise State and Colorado State. Utah State, Air Force, and Nevada add to the quality.

Fresno State has been a big disappointment this season, and we have now removed the Bulldogs from the probable bowl eligible list. Wyoming and San Jose State are both in contention, but their schedules are not favorable, so we have not included them in the privileged list.

That leaves six bowl eligible teams in a league with six bowl tie-ins.

1. Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State (7-1/11-2)
2. Poinsettia Bowl: Colorado State (7-1/11-1)
3. Hawaii Bowl: Utah State (6-2/9-4)
4. New Mexico Bowl: Air Force (4-4/8-4)
5. New Orleans Bowl: Nevada (5-3/8-5)
6. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: San Diego State (5-3/7-5)

Sunbelt Conference
We will probably know in two weeks whether or not this league will have undefeated co-champions. Louisiana-Lafayette should have little trouble at New Mexico State this week, but a road game against rival Louisiana-Monroe is not going to be easy, especially since the Warhawks will need to win that game to get to 6-6.

Georgia Southern plays a tough Texas State team in San Marcos and may be looking ahead a week to a trip to Navy. Should the Eagles win this week, and UL-Lafayette wins next week, the two top teams should both finish 8-0 in league play.

Besides the previously mentioned Texas State Bobcats, Arkansas State will finish bowl eligible for the fourth consecutive season with four different head coaches. South Alabama is probably headed to a 6-6 finish and no bowl invitation.

1. GoDaddy.com Bowl: Georgia Southern (8-0/9-3)
2. New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana-Lafayette (8-0/9-3)
3. Camellia Bowl: Arkansas State (6-2/8-4)
4. Armed Forces Bowl (at-large invitation): Texas State (5-3/7-5)

Also Bowl Eligible: South Alabama (5-3/6-6)

Independents (Notre Dame is included in the ACC)
Army must win out to become bowl eligible, and the Black Knights cannot even take Fordham lightly, as they already have a loss to Yale. This will not be the year the men from West Point get back to a bowl. Thus, the Armed Forces Bowl will need to find a replacement team.

BYU is one win away from bowl eligibility and will get that sixth win, if not November 15 against UNLV, then definitely the following week against Savannah State.

Navy still has some work to do. The Midshipmen are 4-5. All three of their final games are tricky, as Georgia Southern and South Alabama are sneaky good, while even a winless Army team would be tough to beat much less this 2-win squad. However, Navy has a week off between each of these games and should win at least two if not all three to gain their automatic bowl bid.

1. Miami Beach Bowl: B Y U (7-5)
2. Poinsettia Bowl: Navy (7-5)

The Power 5

We do not use the current rankings to set our playoff and bowl pairings. “If the season ended today” is only good when the season actually ends today. We look into the future to try to predict where the teams will be on December 7.

This week presents multiple contests which serve as eliminator games. It is like a Round of 64 and 32 NCAA Basketball weekend, where by Sunday morning, there will be a Sweet 16.

Here are the top games that will affect the Power 5 rankings this week:

Baylor at Oklahoma: The Bears are still in the thick of the playoff race, while Oklahoma is merely playing for a Cotton Bowl or Fiesta Bowl bid. Baylor won 41-12 last year and outgained the Sooners by more than 220 yards. OU will be ready to play its best game of the season.

Notre Dame at Arizona St.: Call this a pure elimination game for sure. The loser has no chance, while the winner stays in contention from near the back of the pack, but if the winner wins out, they will have a shot at playing in the Rose or Sugar Bowl. Even if the winner misses out on the playoffs, they are sure to get one of the other Big Six bowls.

The Sun Devils need Oregon to keep winning until the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Kansas State at TCU: The winner of this game has an excellent shot at finishing 12-1. The Big 12 may not be as highly ranked as in past years, but a 12-1 team here will have a nice resume.

Alabama at LSU: This is never a gimme game for the Crimson Tide. A loss here would just about end ‘Bama’s chances to make the playoffs but not totally eliminate them. With wins over Mississippi State and Auburn, Coach Nick Saban’s squad could still sneak in as the number four team. A win Saturday combined with wins over Mississippi State, Auburn, and the SEC East champion probably moves the Tide to number two and host of the Sugar Bowl in the playoffs.

LSU would need a lot of help to sneak into the playoffs. The Bengal Tigers would have to beat ‘Bama by double digits and then easily dismiss Arkansas and Texas A&M on the road. Then, Mississippi State would have to lose to both Alabama and Ole Miss, and the champions of the Big Ten and Big 12 would have to lose a second game as well.

Ohio State at Michigan State: This is a pure playoff eliminator. The winner can earn a playoff spot if they finish 12-1, and still it could be tough. The Spartans still have to jump at least one SEC school plus TCU and Oregon, and that loss to the Ducks will keep the quack attack ahead of them if both finish 12-1.

Ohio State needs a lot of help and could still finish on the outside looking in at 12-1.

Oregon at Utah: The Utes are done and can only hope for an Alamo or Holiday Bowl bid as a consolation prize or else settle for a lesser bowl. Oregon is still very much in the playoff picture and should make the final four if they win out. They will not sniff the playoffs with one more loss.

Atlantic Coast Conference
Florida State reminds our founder of the 1958 Kentucky basketball team that won the national championship. That group of Wildcats were known as the “Fiddlin’ Five.” They just fiddled around for 25-30 minutes before going on one big run at the end to win.

Can the Seminoles continue this style of fiddlin’ for 2 ½ quarters before scoring three touchdowns in a five to seven-minute span and win the National Championship for a second consecutive season?

We don’t know the answer, but FSU probably can play this way the rest of the regular season and finish 13-0. The game at Miami on November 15 could be close for awhile, and maybe if Duke wins the Coastal Division, the Blue Devils can make a Championship Game rematch much closer than 2013, when the Seminoles won 45-7.

Elsewhere in the league, we have removed Virginia from bowl eligible likelihood, and this places Coach Mike London back on that hot seat. In the Cavaliers’ place, we have added North Carolina State back into the bowl mix.

Even though three league members might finish 6-6, the entire trio will have bowl preference over a possible 8-4 Miami Hurricanes. If they cannot put 10,000 fans in their home stadium, they aren’t likely to bring many to a bowl game.

In the past, Boston College has not sent many fans to its bowl games, but we believe a site closer to home will help the Eagles sell more tickets.

1. PLAYOFFS—Rose Bowl: Florida State (8-0/13-0)
2. Orange Bowl: Duke (7-1/11-2)
3. Russell Athletic Bowl: Clemson (6-2/9-3)
4. Gator Bowl: Notre Dame (9-3)
5. Belk Bowl: Georgia Tech (6-2/9-3)
6. Sun Bowl: Louisville (4-4/7-5)
7. Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College (5-3/8-4)
8. Military Bowl: North Carolina (4-4/6-6)
9. Independence Bowl: Virginia Tech (3-5/6-6)
10. Quick Lane Bowl: North Carolina State (2-6/6-6)
11. Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl: Miami (5-3/8-4)

Big Ten Conference
Who would have ever thought that a Nebraska team could go 12-1 in the regular season and just be an afterthought in the NCAA Championship picture? You have to figure that had they stayed in the Big 12, the Cornhuskers would have been a cinch to make the playoffs at 12-1. That shows how far the Big Ten has fallen in prestige. Could it be that this league is now more of a basketball power than football power? Of course, this league has been the bridesmaid in the Final Four since Michigan State won that title more than a dozen years ago.

All eyes will be looking in at East Lansing Saturday, when Michigan State and Ohio State settle the East Division title. The Buckeyes have a huge revenge factor in this game, as they were 12-0 when MSU knocked them out of the BCS Championship picture last year with a stunning 34-24 upset win.

We have removed Penn State and Northwestern from the bowl picture this week, and we have kept Illinois and added Michigan to the mix. With nine bowls guaranteed and ten bowls likely with two league teams playing in Big Six bowls, there will be space for all bowl eligible clubs.

1. Orange Bowl: Ohio State (8-0/12-1)
2. Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Michigan State (7-1/10-2)
3. Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Nebraska (5-3/9-3)
4. Outback Bowl: Iowa (6-2/9-4)
5. Holiday Bowl: Wisconsin (6-2/9-3)
6. Music City Bowl: Maryland (4-4/7-5)
7. San Francisco Bowl: Minnesota (4-4/7-5)
8. Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers (2-6/6-6)
9. Quick Lane Bowl: Michigan (4-4/6-6)
10. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Illinois (3-5/6-6)

Big 12 Conference
TCU, Baylor, and Kansas State all still hold playoff hopes, but they will all need some help. Even with one SEC team assured of falling out of the top four, Oregon is still in front of this trio, and the Ducks will have defeated Michigan State, UCLA, Stanford, Utah, and probably Arizona State if they finish 12-1.

This league is almost a lock to place two teams in Big Six bowls, even if no team makes the playoffs. With two Big Six bowls plus six other bowl tie-ins, there needs to be eight bowl eligible teams to fill the slots. We believe there will only be six bowl eligible teams, so there will be room for two at-large invitations courtesy of the Big 12.

1. Cotton Bowl: T C U (8-1/11-1)
2. Fiesta Bowl: Baylor (8-1/11-1)
3. Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma (6-3/9-3)
4. Russell Athletic Bowl: West Virginia (7-2/9-3)
5. Liberty Bowl: Kansas State (6-3/8-4)
6. Cactus Bowl: Oklahoma State (4-5/6-6)

Pac-12 Conference
Oregon controls its own destiny in our opinion. If the Ducks win out, at 12-1, they have about a 97% chance of finishing in the top four.

Arizona State needs help to move into the top four even if they win out by defeating Notre Dame, Oregon State, Arizona, and Oregon. Coach Todd Graham may be the best coach under the radar, as he has built winners at Rice, Tulsa, and Pittsburgh prior to coming to Tempe. Arizona State is the largest undergraduate university in FBS football, and the means are there for Graham to make this one of the top programs in the nation.

The Pac-12 has only seven guaranteed bowl bids, because a proposed bowl at the Los Angeles Coliseum around Christmas never materialized. This conference will be the top banana in the at-large priority mix. We believe there will be room for one Pac-12 to accept an at-large bowl bid.

1. PLAYOFFS—Sugar Bowl: Oregon (8-1/12-1)
2. Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State (8-1/11-2)
3. Alamo Bowl: U S C (7-2/9-3)
4. Holiday Bowl: U C L A (6-3/9-3)
5. San Francisco Bowl: Washington (5-4/8-4)
6. Sun Bowl: Arizona (5-4/8-4)
7. Las Vegas Bowl: Utah (5-4/8-4)
8. Cactus Bowl: Stanford (5-4/7-5)
9. Texas Bowl (at-large invitation): California (3-6/6-6)

Southeastern Conference
The “Good Ole Boys” down South would argue that the top four teams in the SEC should be the four playoff teams, and with Alabama, Mississippi State, and Auburn this season, they might be 75% correct.

However, we see no possibility where three SEC teams will make the playoffs in year one. If it were to happen, there would be hell to pay by the other leagues.

In all honesty, the playoffs should be eight deep, and we believe this will happen in the next five or six years, thus allowing for automatic bids for all the Power 5 conference champions.

When Alabama has something to play for in November, you never bet against the Crimson Tide. They may be out of favor following their loss to Ole Miss and narrow win over Arkansas, but they are still Alabama, just like Kentucky in basketball.

Auburn is probably a little better in 2014 than they were last year when they advanced to the National Championship Game, but the Tigers still must face the Tide in Tuscaloosa.

Mississippi State is only the top-rated team in the land, but the Bulldogs have a November 15 date in Tuscaloosa and figure to end their reign at the top that day. Even a dejected Ole Miss squad could spoil the Maroons playoff chances at the Egg Bowl.

LSU’s season is on the line this Saturday night, and you know the Tigers have that magic at Tiger Stadium when the moon is out.

The East is a mess now with Florida knocking Georgia out of the playoff picture. If Georgia loses to Auburn, which is now a good bet, and Missouri falls at Texas A&M or Tennessee, which is also a high probability, and Florida beats South Carolina and Vanderbilt, which is highly probable, then there will be a three-way tie for first in the division. Let’s look at the tiebreaker system to see which team would be fodder for the West Division champion.

1. Head-to-Head: all three teams will be 1-1 against each other.
2. East Division Records: Georgia would be 4-2; Florida would be 5-1; and Missouri would be either 5-1 or 4-2 depending on whether they lost to A&M or UT. If Missouri lost to the Aggies and beat the Vols, then they would lose in the SEC Championship Game. If the Tigers lost to the Vols instead, then Florida would lose in the SEC Championship Game. For now, we believe the Gators will be that unfortunate team, and it will be hard to can Will Muschamp if he take UF to Atlanta on December 6.

With three teams playing in Big Six bowls, the league will not meet its bowl obligations, probably falling short by two, because we believe Kentucky will lose out to finish 5-7, and South Carolina will come up one game short as well.

1. PLAYOFFS—Sugar Bowl: Alabama (7-1/12-1)
2. PLAYOFFS—Rose Bowl: Mississippi State (7-1/11-1)
3. Cotton Bowl: Auburn (6-2/10-2)
4. Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Missouri (5-3/9-3)
5. Outback Bowl: L S U (5-3/9-3)
6. Gator Bowl: Ole Miss (5-3/9-3)
7. Music City Bowl: Tennessee (4-4/7-5)
8. Liberty Bowl: Georgia (5-3/9-3)
9. Belk Bowl: Florida (5-3/7-5)

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