The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 12, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 6–October 17-18, 2010

Parity USA

 

For the first time since 1970, no NFL team won its first four games.  Let’s take a brief look at that season 40 years ago. 

 

It was the first season that the old AFL and the NFL were fully merged.  Baltimore (then the Colts), Pittsburgh, and Cleveland joined the new AFC, leaving 13 teams in each conference.

 

The divisional races were exciting with many unexpected turns.  In the AFC Central, the Cincinnati Bengals began the year losing six of their first seven games.  It appeared that Coach Paul Brown had lost the touch that had made him so successful with Cleveland.  The Bengals were in last place, three games behind their older in-state rival and given up for dead.  Just when it appeared like they would be in the hunt for the first pick in the next NFL Draft, a pick that would most assuredly be Jim Plunkett, the Bengals’ defense caught fire.  After giving up more than 25 points per game in the first half of the season, they gave up just 11 in the second half.  Seven consecutive wins later, Cincinnati had passed Houston, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland to win the AFC Central with an 8-6-0 record.

 

In the AFC West, the Oakland Raiders came down to Earth after a three-year run which saw go 37-4-1.  Quarterback Daryle Lamonica was beginning to show signs of aging, so what did Coach John Madden do?  He inserted an even older quarterback into the lineup.  George Blanda won five comeback five games with his passing and kicking to propel Oakland from a 3-2-2 start to an 8-4-2 finish, passing Denver and Kansas City in the standings.

 

In the AFC East, John Unitas was beginning to show his age, but he had enough left in the tank to combine with a really good Colts’ defense to lead Baltimore to the best record in the conference.  Upstart Miami, with first year coach Don Shula enjoyed its first winning season, finishing 10-4 and earning the wildcard.

 

The NFC had its share of wild races.  In the East, the St. Louis Cardinals looked unbeatable when they shut out the Dallas Cowboys 38-0 on Monday Night Football.  The blowout moved the Cardinals to 7-2 and dropped the Cowboys to 5-4, a game behind the New York Giants at 6-3. 

 

The Giants led a host of teams vying for the wildcard berth.  Los Angeles stood one half game back at 5-3-1, while Detroit and Green Bay joined Dallas at 5-4.  The Lions would have been 6-3, but a 63-yard field goal by Tom Dempsey of the lowly Saints did them in.

 

What happened in the final five weeks?  St. Louis fell apart following the win over Dallas.  They tied Kansas City and beat the weak Philadelphia Eagles to move to 8-2-1 and looked to be in control.  But, that was their last win of the season.  At 8-5-1, they missed the playoffs altogether.

 

The Giants moved into first in the division by defeating the Cardinals in week 13 34-17, and at 9-4, they needed a win in the finale to secure the division title.  They never threatened in losing to the Rams by four touchdowns.

 

The Cowboys caught fire after the pasting in prime time.  They won five in a row to win the division on the final weekend.

 

The Minnesota Vikings rode the best defense in the league to a second consecutive 12-2-0 finish.  The San Francisco 49ers had the NFL’s top offense with quarterback John Brodie having an All-Pro season.  They made the playoffs for the first time in 13 seasons (in 1957, they were in a playoff for the division title and lost to Detroit).

 

As for the wildcard berth, the Packers forgot how to score and fell out of the race, going on to lose four of their final five.  The Rams and Lions began to pull away from the rest, and the two faced off in week 13 on Monday Night Football at the Coliseum in Los Angeles.  The Lions won an exciting game to move a half game in front of the Rams at 9-4.  They clinched the spot the following week with a 20-0 win over Green Bay.

 

You can see a lot of possible similarities in this year’s races.  Could the San Francisco 49ers still catch fire and be this year’s version of the Bengals?  The NFC West is weak enough so that 8-8 could win the division.  Might Mike Singletary be able to coax the Prospectors to a 8-3 finish?

 

Dallas could be the team that comes from off the pace to win the division.  The Giants, Eagles, and Redskins are all capable of losing two or three in a row.

 

What about the Vikings?  Is Brett Favre going to rebound?  Can the Bears be the surprise team in the North and win the division much like the 49ers emerged in 1970.  What about the Chiefs?  Are they going to be like San Francisco was and win the division title in a big surprise?  Might they earn a wildcard like the upstart 1970 Dolphins, or will they be like the Cardinals and collapse in the second half?

 

It will be interesting in this season of parity.  Expect to see about 10 teams competing for three or four playoff spots in the final couple of weeks.

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
 
NFC East
PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T PPG Opp
Dallas 104.2 102.2 102.3 1-3-0 20.3 27.8
Philadelphia 102.0 100.5 100.3 3-2-0 24.4 20.6
New York Giants 100.7 99.0 99.1 3-2-0 21.2 19.6
Washington 98.1 99.4 97.5 3-2-0 17.8 18.4
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 104.2 104.3 104.5 3-2-0 23.8 17.8
Minnesota 103.3 101.7 102.0 1-3-0 15.8 16.8
Chicago 100.9 99.7 101.1 4-1-0 18.4 14.8
Detroit 94.3 94.0 95.7 1-4-0 25.2 22.4
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Atlanta 105.7 104.5 105.4 4-1-0 22.6 14.0
New Orleans 103.3 103.0 103.4 3-2-0 19.4 20.4
Carolina 97.9 94.9 95.9 0-5-0 10.4 22.0
Tampa Bay 94.3 97.6 97.6 3-1-0 14.8 16.0
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Francisco 97.2 94.6 92.8 0-5-0 15.2 26.0
Seattle 94.5 95.7 95.4 2-2-0 18.8 19.3
St. Louis 94.0 96.5 97.3 2-3-0 16.6 19.2
Arizona 92.5 94.3 94.2 3-2-0 17.6 27.6
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Jets 111.1 108.2 109.0 4-1-0 27.0 16.2
New England 106.6 106.1 106.5 3-1-0 32.8 24.0
Miami 100.1 98.6 101.3 2-2-0 16.5 23.0
Buffalo 92.6 93.7 93.4 0-5-0 17.4 32.6
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 106.1 105.6 106.3 4-1-0 18.4 14.4
Pittsburgh 103.7 107.0 105.5 3-1-0 21.5 12.5
Cincinnati 101.6 100.8 100.9 2-3-0 20.0 20.4
Cleveland 97.4 97.3 96.3 1-4-0 15.6 19.4
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 104.9 104.4 103.4 3-2-0 27.2 20.2
Houston 101.9 101.5 103.5 3-2-0 23.6 27.2
Tennessee 99.4 102.3 99.5 3-2-0 26.4 19.0
Jacksonville 94.1 95.0 95.2 3-2-0 21.4 27.4
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 103.8 103.5 103.0 2-3-0 28.0 21.2
Kansas City 100.5 101.8 100.9 3-1-0 19.3 14.3
Denver 97.0 99.1 97.8 2-3-0 20.8 23.2
Oakland 92.4 93.0 92.7 2-3-0 22.2 26.8
This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 6: October 17-18, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 2:00 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
San Diego ST. LOUIS 8.5 4.1 6.2 8 1/2 45   
HOUSTON Kansas City 1.3 -0.6 1.3 4 1/2 44   
NEW ENGLAND Baltimore 4.3 3.3 2.7 3    44 1/2
New Orleans  

TAMPA BAY
4.4 -2.6 1.8 5    44   
Atlanta PHILADELPHIA 1.8 2.5 1.4 NL NL
NEW YORK GIANTS Detroit 9.7 6.2 10.4 10    44 1/2
CHICAGO Seattle 10.2 10.0 10.0 7    40   
GREEN BAY Miami 6.6 10.1 5.1 NL NL
PITTSBURGH Cleveland 8.8 12.7 11.5 13 1/2 37   
New York Jets DENVER 11.4 5.8 7.6 3    40 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO Oakland 7.1 3.1 3.3 6 1/2 41   
MINNESOTA Dallas 4.2 4.6 4.2 1 1/2 43 1/2
Indianapolis WASHINGTON 3.5 2.5 2.4 3 1/2 43 1/2
Tennessee JACKSONVILLE 2.5 6.3 0.6 3    44 1/2

October 5, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 5–October 10-11, 2010

Four weeks into the NFL season gives us enough time to begin to make assumptions.  There just may not be a great team in the league this year.  The Kansas City Chiefs are the only undefeated team left, and it is a good bet they will not be so after this week.

We have a lot of mediocre teams and a handful of good but not great teams.  Scoring is down this year.  That gives the odds makers quite a dilemma.  The underdog is covering more than ever this year.  The lines will be shorter, and this will create many instances where sweetheart teaser plays become more advantageous.

If a team that should be a five-point favorite all of a sudden becomes a two and a half-point favorite, then playing a 10-point teaser to make them a seven and a half-point underdog becomes truly sweet and playing a 13-point teaser to make them a 10 ½-point underdog becomes money in the bank.

The PiRates are having a great time playing these NFL sweetheart teasers so far this year.  In fact, we may have to consider not playing any college games and picking just NFL games, at least as long as this hot streak continues.

We have also fattened up on money line parlays that take advantage of the fact that favorites are still winning but not covering.  The lower the regular spread, the lower the money line odds. 

                                                PiRate QB Passer Ratings                                       

 

Player Team AYPA INT% PiRate #
Michael Vick PHI 6.7 0.00 121.5
Peyton Manning IND 7.4 0.58 120.3
Mark Sanchez NYJ 6.1 0.00 118.2
Tony Romo DAL 6.6 1.56 107.2
Kyle Orton DEN 6.6 1.71 105.9
Donovan McNabb WAS 6.5 1.65 105.9
Tom Brady NE 6.3 1.64 104.9
Drew Brees NO 6.2 1.79 103.0
Phillip Rivers SD 7.3 2.84 99.9
Seneca Wallace CLE 5.4 1.82 98.2
Matt Ryan ATL 5.1 2.01 94.8
Aaron Rodgers GB 5.6 2.86 90.2
Jay Cutler CHI 5.7 2.94 90.0
Josh Freeman TB 4.8 2.41 89.7
Matt Shcaub HOU 5.6 3.08 88.3
Carson Palmer CIN 4.4 2.46 87.0
Chad Henne MIA 5.2 3.03 86.5
Vince Young TEN 4.8 2.82 86.1
Kevin Kolb PHI 3.3 2.22 82.9
Dennis Dixon PIT 4.5 3.13 81.7
Matt Cassel KC 4.4 3.90 74.4
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 4.5 4.21 72.1
Eli Manning NYG 4.8 4.55 70.9
Sam Bradford STL 3.6 3.80 70.7
Joe Flacco BAL 3.8 4.63 64.5
Jimmy Clausen CAR 3.0 4.17 64.1
Shaun Hill DET 3.7 4.67 63.6
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 3.7 4.76 62.8
Alex Smith SF 3.5 4.64 62.8
Jason Campbell OAK 2.2 3.85 62.5
Derek Anderson ARI 2.8 4.46 60.4
Trent Edwards BUF 1.5 3.85 58.6
Jake Delhomme CLE 3.7 5.41 57.2
David Garrard JAX 3.0 5.21 55.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 5.2 7.14 50.3
Brett Favre MIN 2.8 6.19 45.2
Charlie Batch PIT 3.8 7.14 42.4
Matt Moore CAR 1.2 8.16 18.9
 PiRate Passer Rating Formula: [(AYPA * 7) – (11 * Int%) + 105] * 0.8

 

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
             
             
 

 

NFC East

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T PPG Opp
Dallas  104.2 102.2 102.3 1-2-0 18.0 17.7
Philadelphia  102.0 100.5 100.3 2-2-0 23.8 19.8
New York Giants 100.7 99.0 99.1 2-2-0 18.0 22.0
Washington  98.1 99.4 97.5 2-2-0 18.3 19.8
             
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay  104.2 104.3 104.5 3-1-0 26.5 18.3
Minnesota  103.3 101.7 102.0 1-2-0 14.3 12.7
Chicago 100.9 99.7 101.1 3-1-0 17.3 17.0
Detroit 94.3 94.0 95.7 0-4-0 20.5 26.5
             
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Atlanta 105.7 104.5 105.4 3-1-0 23.3 15.0
New Orleans 103.3 103.0 103.4 3-1-0 19.8 18.0
Carolina 97.9 94.9 95.9 0-4-0 11.5 21.8
Tampa Bay 94.3 97.6 97.6 2-1-0 16.7 19.7
             
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Francisco 97.2 94.6 92.8 0-4-0 13.0 25.8
Seattle 94.5 95.7 95.4 2-2-0 18.8 19.3
St. Louis 94.0 96.5 97.3 2-2-0 19.3 13.0
Arizona 92.5 94.3 94.2 2-2-0 14.5 29.5
             
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Jets 111.1 108.2 109.0 3-1-0 26.5 15.3
New England 106.6 106.1 106.5 3-1-0 32.8 24.0
Miami 100.1 98.6 101.3 2-2-0 16.5 23.0
Buffalo 92.6 93.7 93.4 0-4-0 15.3 31.3
             
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 106.1 105.6 106.3 3-1-0 15.3 13.8
Pittsburgh 103.7 107.0 105.5 3-1-0 21.5 12.5
Cincinnati 101.6 100.8 100.9 2-2-0 19.8 19.5
Cleveland 97.4 97.3 96.3 1-3-0 17.0 19.3
             
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 104.9 104.4 103.4 2-2-0 29.3 23.0
Houston 101.9 101.5 103.5 3-1-0 27.0 25.5
Tennessee 99.4 102.3 99.5 2-2-0 24.5 17.0
Jacksonville 94.1 95.0 95.2 2-2-0 17.8 27.8
             
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 103.8 103.5 103.0 2-2-0 28.3 17.8
Kansas City 100.5 101.8 100.9 3-0-0 22.7 10.3
Denver 97.0 99.1 97.8 2-2-0 21.8 21.3
Oakland 92.4 93.0 92.7 1-3-0 19.0 26.8

 

This Week’s Games                                                                

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site                                                       

                                                                       

Week 5: October 10-11, 2010                                                            

Vegas Line as of 11:00 PM EDT Tuesday                                                                

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 5: October 10-11, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 11:00 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
BALTIMORE Denver 12.1 9.5 11.5 7    38 1/2
BUFFALO Jacksonville 1.5 1.7 1.2 Pk 41   
INDIANAPOLIS Kansas City 7.4 5.6 5.5 8    44 1/2
 

DETROIT
St. Louis 3.3 0.5 1.4 3    42 1/2
Atlanta CLEVELAND 5.3 4.2 6.1 3    40 1/2
CINCINNATI Tampa Bay 9.3 5.2 5.3 6 1/2 38   
Chicago CAROLINA 0.0 1.8 2.2 2 1/2 35 1/2
Green Bay WASHINGTON 3.1 1.9 4.0 2 1/2 44   
HOUSTON New York Giants 3.2 4.5 6.4 3    47 1/2
New Orleans ARIZONA 8.8 6.7 7.2 6 1/2 45 1/2
San Diego OAKLAND 9.4 8.5 8.3 6    45   
DALLAS Tennessee 7.8 2.9 5.8 6 1/2 41 1/2
Philadelphia SAN FRANCISCO 0.8 1.9 3.5 -3    38   
NEW YORK JETS Minnesota 9.8 8.5 9.0 4    38 1/2

September 28, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 4–October 3-4, 2010

Week 3 PiRate Passer Ratings *

Player Team AYPA Int % PiRate #
Peyton Manning IND  7.7 0.00 127.1
Michael Vick PHI 6.7 0.00 121.5
Mark Sanchez NYJ 6.1 0.00 118.2
Donovan McNabb WAS 7.0 0.98 114.6
Kyle Orton DEN 7.4 1.60 111.4
Matt Ryan ATL 5.7 0.94 107.6
Tony Romo DAL 6.6 1.56 107.2
Chad Henne MIA 5.8 1.08 107.0
Jay Cutler CHI 7.5 2.20 106.7
Drew Brees NO 6.2 1.79 103.0
Tom Brady NE 6.5 2.04 102.4
 

Seneca Wallace

CLE 5.4 1.82 98.2
Phillip Rivers SD 6.7 3.31 92.4
Aaron Rodgers GB 5.6 2.86 90.2
Josh Freeman TB 4.8 2.41 89.7
Carson Palmer CIN 4.4 2.46 87.0
Dennis Dixon PIT 4.5 3.13 81.7
Brad Gradkowski OAK 5.1 3.57 81.1
 

Matt Schaub

HOU 5.4 3.96 79.4
Derek Anderson ARI 3.7 3.06 77.8
Matt Cassel KC 4.4 3.90 74.4
Kerry Collins TEN 3.7 4.00 69.5
Alex Smith SF 3.7 4.20 67.7
Vince Young TEN 4.3 4.65 67.1
Joe Flacco BAL 3.8 4.63 64.5
Jimmy Clausen CAR 3.0 4.17 64.1
Sam Bradford STL 3.1 4.27 63.8
Shaun Hill DET 3.7 4.67 63.6
Jason Campbell OAK 2.2 3.85 62.5
 

Trent Edwards

BUF 1.5 3.85 58.6
Eli Manning NYG 4.5 5.88 57.4
Jake Delhomme CLE 3.7 5.41 57.2
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 3.9 5.56 57.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 5.2 7.14 50.3
Brett Favre MIN 2.8 6.19 45.2
Charlie Batch PIT 3.8 7.14 42.4
 

David Garrard

JAX 1.8 6.76 34.6
Matt Moore CAR 1.2 8.16 18.9

 

* PiRate Passer Rating Formula: [(AYPA * 7) – (11 * Int%) + 105] * 0.8

Where AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (passing yards minus yards after catch)

AYPA is available at advancednflstats.com

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
             
             
 

NFC East

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T PPG Opp
Dallas  104.2 102.4 103.6 1-2-0 18.0 17.7
Philadelphia  103.3 103.1 103.6 2-1-0 27.7 20.7
New York Giants 98.8 94.8 97.4 1-2-0 18.3 28.3
Washington 96.8 99.4 95.6 1-2-0 18.7 22.3
             
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 105.8 106.6 107.8 2-1-0 26.0 15.7
Minnesota 103.3 102.5 102.3 1-2-0 14.3 12.7
Chicago 102.3 102.0 104.4 3-0-0 22.0 17.0
Detroit 92.7 95.1 92.7 0-3-0 18.7 26.0
             
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Atlanta 106.3 108.9 107.7 2-1-0 25.7 15.3
New Orleans 104.5 104.8 106.0 2-1-0 21.0 19.3
Carolina 96.7 90.7 91.4 0-3-0 10.7 23.7
Tampa Bay 94.3 94.8 97.1 2-1-0 16.7 19.7
             
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Francisco 96.4 93.2 95.4 0-3-0 10.3 29.0
Arizona 95.6 97.5 97.9 2-1-0 16.0 25.7
Seattle 95.5 99.3 100.1 2-1-0 24.0 19.0
St. Louis 92.5 96.2 94.7 1-2-0 19.0 16.3
             
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Jets 108.6 104.4 106.7 2-1-0 22.7 15.7
New England 104.6 100.4 104.5 2-1-0 30.0 27.3
Miami 102.1 101.6 101.2 2-1-0 17.3 17.0
Buffalo 95.6 94.0 91.2 0-3-0 15.7 29.0
             
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 104.8 101.9 103.7 2-1-0 14.7 13.7
Pittsburgh 104.5 107.7 107.7 3-0-0 24.0 11.0
Cincinnati 102.3 98.1 102.4 2-1-0 19.7 18.3
Cleveland 96.7 95.7 94.8 0-3-0 15.0 19.0
             
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 105.9 109.7 107.8 2-1-0 29.7 20.3
Houston 101.7 103.8 103.4 2-1-0 25.7 26.0
Tennessee 101.1 102.6 102.5 2-1-0 26.0 14.0
Jacksonville 93.1 93.4 91.2 1-2-0 13.3 27.7
             
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 101.2 101.6 99.9 1-2-0 24.0 20.3
Kansas City 100.5 100.4 99.5 3-0-0 22.7 10.3
Denver 95.8 100.6 96.8 1-2-0 20.3 21.7
Oakland 92.6 92.3 89.1 1-2-0 17.3 25.3

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 4: October 3-4, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
TENNESSEE Denver 8.3 5.0 8.7 6 1/2 41 1/2
PITTSBURGH Baltimore 2.7 8.8 7.0 1 1/2 34 1/2
Cincinnati CLEVELAND 3.6 0.4 5.6 3    37 1/2
GREEN BAY Detroit 16.1 14.5 18.1 14 1/2 45 1/2
NEW ORLEANS Carolina 10.8 17.1 17.6 13    44   
ATLANTA San Francisco 12.9 18.7 15.3 7    42   
Seattle ST. LOUIS 1.0 1.1 3.4 Pk 38 1/2
New York Jets BUFFALO 10.0 7.4 12.5 5    37   
Indianapolis JACKSONVILLE 9.8 13.3 13.6 7 1/2 46 1/2
Houston OAKLAND 7.1 9.5 12.3 3    43 1/2
SAN DIEGO Arizona 7.6 6.1 4.0 8    46   
PHILADELPHIA Washington 9.5 6.7 11.0 6    42 1/2
Chicago NEW YORK GIANTS 0.5 4.2 4.0 -4    44   
New England MIAMI 0.5 -3.2 1.3 Pk 45 1/2

September 14, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 2–September 19-20, 2010

18.3!  That is the average number of points scored per team in the opening week of the 2010 NFL season.  That is a little more than a field goal less per team compared to last year.  Is this a sign that scoring is about to become harder in the league, or is it more of a case of so many closely-matched contests in week one?  We will have to wait a couple of weeks before we can begin to make an assumption.

Week two finds a handful of interesting games on the slate.  The Jets hook up with the Pats, and it is almost a must-win game for Coach Rex Ryan and his crew.  After losing Monday night at home to Baltimore, a loss would to New England would give Team Belichick a two-game edge in the AFC East.

Indianapolis hosts the Giants in a battle of Manning vs. Manning.  The Colts could not stop the Houston running game, and the Texans are not a rushing behemoth.  If Eli and company get the best of Peyton and company, the Colts could be two games behind the rest of the division.

Kansas City visits Cleveland, and if the Chiefs can pull off the road win over a weak Browns’ team, they will become a legitimate threat in the AFC West.  The Chiefs get Cleveland and Buffalo as part of finishing fourth in the division last year, while the Chargers must play New England and Cincinnati. 

Dallas hosts Chicago, and the Cowboys must rebound or else they could find themselves in a hole they cannot crawl out of.  Jerry Jones might even begin to consider his options if the Cowboys lay another egg offensively this week.  The mental anguish of having the winning touchdown called back could do to Dallas what Virginia Tech’s loss to Boise State did to the Hokies.  Additionally, Chicago benefitted from a final play penalty to beat Detroit, and the Bears could get a positive bounce from that event.

The Saints and Vikings got an extra three days to prepare for their second games.  Minnesota hosts Miami.  The Dolphins struggled to beat the hapless Bills, and the Vikes are much better at home than they are on the road.  After the opening touchdown drive, Minnesota’s defense shut down Drew Brees.

The Saints fly into a hornet’s nest in San Francisco.  Mike Singletary will have the 49ers hopping mad after the embarrassing loss at Seattle.

                Week One PiRate Passer Ratings *                                

Player Team PiRate #
David Garrard JAX 126.0
VinceYoung TEN 125.4
Tom Brady N-E 125.4
Peyton Manning IND 123.8
Phil Rivers S-D 122.1
Drew Brees N-O 118.7
Derek Anderson ARI 118.7
Michael Vick PHI 118.2
Tony Romo DAL 116.5
Donovan McNabb WAS 111.4
Chad Henne MIA 108.6
Matthew Stafford DET 108.1
Jay Cutler CHI 104.2
Trent Edwards BUF 101.4
Matt Cassel K-C 99.1
Carson Palmer CIN 98.9
Mark Sanchez NYJ 98.6
Kyle Orton DEN 93.2
Matt Ryan ATL 87.5
Joe Flacco BAL 87.2
Dennis Dixon PIT 82.1
Josh Freeman T-B 75.0
Brett Favre MIN 74.9
Jason Campbell OAK 74.8
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 73.7
Alex Smith S-F 59.4
Jake Delhomme CLE 57.2
Matt Schaub HOU 47.9
Shaun Hill DET 47.2
Sam Bradford STL 46.1
Aaron Rodgers G-B 40.1
Eli Manning NYG 18.4
Matt Moore CAR 6.2

 

* PiRate Passer Rating: [((7 x AYPA) – (10 x Int. %)) + 105] x 0.8

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (eliminates Yards After the Catch)

 

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
             
             
Bitmap

NFC East

 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Dallas 103.6 102.7 101.1 0-1-0 7 13
New York Giants 101.5 102.5 101.9 1-0-0 31 18
Philadelphia 101.0 100.8 99.0 0-1-0 20 27
Washington 99.2 100.6 98.7 1-0-0 13 7
             
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 104.8 106.7 105.8 1-0-0 27 20
Minnesota 104.6 105.2 105.5 0-1-0 9 14
Chicago 100.3 96.8 99.9 1-0-0 19 14
Detroit 92.3 91.3 92.4 0-1-0 14 19
             
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 105.4 107.7 107.9 1-0-0 14 9
Atlanta 103.9 102.3 102.9 0-1-0 9 15
Carolina 100.1 100.4 98.2 0-1-0 18 31
Tampa Bay 94.7 96.7 94.6 1-0-0 17 14
             
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Francisco 98.6 95.8 98.2 0-1-0 6 31
Arizona 98.3 98.6 98.7 1-0-0 17 13
Seattle 95.2 98.4 98.0 1-0-0 31 6
St. Louis 90.3 90.7 91.3 0-1-0 13 17
             
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Jets 106.8 103.2 104.3 0-1-0 9 10
New England 106.1 104.4 107.4 1-0-0 38 24
Miami 101.7 101.3 101.7 1-0-0 15 10
Buffalo 97.0 95.2 95.9 0-1-0 10 15
             
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 106.1 105.2 106.9 1-0-0 10 9
Pittsburgh 101.7 102.9 102.6 1-0-0 15 9
Cincinnati 99.9 98.9 99.6 0-1-0 24 38
Cleveland 96.9 95.0 94.1 0-1-0 14 17
             
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Houston 103.7 104.3 103.3 1-0-0 34 24
Indianapolis 103.2 103.9 103.1 0-1-0 24 34
Tennessee 100.5 102.6 102.9 1-0-0 38 13
Jacksonville 96.9 97.8 98.2 1-0-0 24 17
             
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 101.2 101.8 101.1 0-1-0 14 21
Kansas City 97.0 98.7 97.8 1-0-0 21 14
Denver 96.0 95.8 96.4 0-1-0 17 24
Oakland 91.6 92.0 90.6 0-1-0 13 38
 

 

           
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
Week 2: Sept. 19-20, 2010            
Vegas Line as of:

10:30 PM EDT Tuesday

           
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
CLEVELAND Kansas City 2.9 -0.7 -0.7 1    38   
GREEN BAY Buffalo 10.8 14.5 12.9 13    43   
Baltimore CINCINNATI 4.2 4.3 5.3 2 1/2 40   
TENNESSEE Pittsburgh 1.8 2.7 3.3 4 1/2 37   
Philadelphia DETROIT 5.7 6.5 3.6 5    42    
DALLAS Chicago 6.3 8.9 4.2 7 1/2 41   
CAROLINA Tampa Bay 8.4 6.7 6.6 NL NL
ATLANTA Arizona 8.6 6.7 7.2 6 1/2 43   
MINNESOTA Miami 6.9 7.9 7.8 5 1/2 39 1/2
OAKLAND St. Louis 3.3 3.3 1.3 3 1/2 37 1/2
DENVER Seattle 3.8 0.4 1.4 3 1/2 40   
Houston WASHINGTON 1.5 0.7 1.6 3    44   
SAN DIEGO Jacksonville 6.3 6.0 4.9 7 1/2 45 1/2
NEW YORK JETS New England 2.7 0.8 -1.1 -1 1/2 38 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS New York Giants 4.7 4.4 4.2 5 1/2 48   
New Orleans SAN FRANCISCO 2.8 7.9 5.7 4 1/2 44   

August 25, 2010

Introducing the PiRate NFL Pass Rating Formula

Introducing the PiRate NFL Pass Rating Formula

 

The National Football League has been using the same pass rating formula for multiple decades.  It uses a combination of completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns, and interceptions.  If you want to calculate it on your own, here it is:

 

I.     (Completion Percentage-30.0) * 0.05 +

II.    (Yards per attempt-3.0) * 0.25 +

III.   (20 * touchdowns per pass attempt) +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * interceptions per pass attempt)

 

If any of these four components are greater than 2.375, then cap the value at 2.375

 

Add these four stats together and multiple them by 16.667 to get the passer rating.  Here is an example:

 

In 1963, Y. A. Tittle had these stats for the New York Giants

Completions 221  Attempts 367  Yards 3145  Touchdowns 36  Interceptions 14

 

I.     (60.20 – 30.0) * 0.05 = 1.51  +

II.    (8.57-3.0) * 0.25 = 1.39        +

III.   (20 * .098) = 1.96                +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * .038) = 1.43    +

 

 Subtotal = 6.29     6.29 * 16.667 =

                     104.8

 

Once you know this formula, you can easily plug it into a spreadsheet and figure the ratings.  However, these ratings are a poor way to select the most efficient passer.

 

Let’s take a look at two opposing passers, Smith and Jones.

 

Smith completes 15 of 24 passes for 3 touchdowns with no interceptions.

 

Jones completes 10 of 24 passes for 0 touchdowns and 1 interception.

 

Smith is obviously much better, correct?  No, not correct.  It depends on several other things.  What if Jones has a lousy offensive line or receivers that drop every other pass thrown to them?  What if Smith has all day to pass with Jerry Rice-type receivers?  All these stats show us are just that—their stats.

 

Smith could have completed six passes to backs behind the line of scrimmage with the backs following blocking for long gains.  Jones could have threaded the needle with 30 yard passes to the deep sidelines only to have had them dropped by inept receivers.

 

In essence no pass-rating formula is worth a grain of salt.  Let’s look at two separate plays.  Passer A completes 13-yard pass for a touchdown.  It is a dump pass into the flat to the tailback with the tailback avoiding three defenders as he streaks into the end zone.  This one pass gets the NFL Maximum rating of 158.3.

 

Now, let’s look at Passer B.  His team is backed up at their own 1 yard line. He drops back and fires a bomb 55 yards through the air that comes down perfectly in the hands of his flanker.  The flanker takes off down the sideline and is knocked out just one yard from scoring.  This 98-yard pass gives Passer B a rating of 118.8!  Peyton Manning actually had a better total season rating than this a couple years ago, and even though he ranks among the best ever, he was not worth a 98-yard completion every time he threw the ball!

 

Can this be?  You betcha!  The rating is flawed.  Obviously the brilliantly thrown pass that travelled 55 yards past the line of scrimmage that comes down perfectly in the hands of the intended receiver should be worth a lot more than the dump pass that I could complete given two seconds protection.

 

Here is where the PiRate Pass Rating Formula tries to correct the incorrect values of the NFL Pass Rating Formula.

 

Our formula looks at just two statistics.  The first is interception percentage.  An intercepted pass is worth anywhere from 3 to 7 points for the other team on average.  We realize that all interceptions are not the same.  A poorly thrown pass into the flat at the offense’s 20-yard line hurts much more than a 3rd and 25 pass thrown 40 yards downfield and intercepted by the defense. 

 

The second stat is called “Air Yards Per Attempt,” or AYPA.  It is simply the passing yardage minus the yards after catch.  If Passer A completed a 51-yard pass for a touchdown, but the play consisted of a pass completed to a tailback one yard past the line of scrimmage with the back running for 50 yards, the passer gets credit for an AYPA of 1 yard (51 yard pass – 50 yards after the catch).

 

Here is the PiRate Pass Rating Formula:

[AYPA * 7 – (11 * Interception %) + 105] * 0.8

 Interception percentage is figured as: (Interceptions/Attempts) *100

 Anything over 100 is an excellent rating.  Over 90 means the QB is above average.  80 would be considered average; below 80 means this QB should be looking over his shoulder for a replacement to take his job.

 In our passer rating, we don’t include passing percentage or touchdown passes.  Yards gained are what matters.  Three consecutive completed passes that gain a total of nine yards means 4th & 1.  Two incomplete passes followed by an 11 yard completion means 1st & 10.  Which outcome is better?

 Touchdowns skew the ratings.  If one coach sends in passing plays at the opponents’ one yard line, while another sends his 240-pound power back to plunge over the goal, the quarterbacks will get too much credit in once instance and no credit in the other. 

 Let’s take a look at the PiRate Rating in action.  First, you must be wondering where can you find AYPA?  There is an excellent website that carries this stat, so you don’t have to try to figure out the YAC for each QB.  Go to: www.advancednflstats.com

 Here is a look at both ratings side-by-side:

Player

PiRate QB Rating

 

Player

Official NFL Rating

Aaron Rodgers

108.9

|||

Drew Brees

109.6

Drew Brees

107.5

|||

Brett Favre

107.2

Brett Favre

106.7

|||

Phil Rivers

104.4

Tony Romo

105.6

|||

Aaron Rodgers

103.2

Phil Rivers

104.8

|||

Ben Roethlisberger

100.5

Ben Roethlisberger

97.9

|||

Peyton Manning

99.9

Matt Schaub

97.8

|||

Matt Schaub

98.6

Peyton Manning

97.2

|||

Tony Romo

97.6

Donovan McNabb

96.3

|||

Tom Brady

96.2

David Garrard

96.1

|||

Kurt Warner

93.2

Kyle Orton

94.7

|||

Eli Manning

93.1

Brad Gradkowski

94.4

|||

Donovan McNabb

92.9

Tom Brady

93.8

|||

Joe Flacco

88.9

Kurt Warner

93.4

|||

Kyle Orton

86.8

Eli Manning

92.8

|||

Jason Campbell

86.4

Vince Young

92.1

|||

Carson Palmer

83.6

Joe Flacco

87.7

|||

David Garrard

83.5

Marc Bulger

86.7

|||

Vince Young

82.8

Jason Campbell

85.4

|||

Alex Smith

81.5

Matt Ryan

83.0

|||

Matt Ryan

80.9

Carson Palmer

81.7

|||

Brad Gradkowski

80.6

Chad Henne

80.8

|||

Jay Cutler

76.8

Alex Smith

79.7

|||

Chad Henne

75.2

Brady Quinn

78.4

|||

Matt Hasselbeck

75.1

Matt Hasselbeck

75.7

|||

Trent Edwards

73.8

Matt Cassel

75.7

|||

Marc Bulger

70.7

Kerry Collins

72.1

|||

Matt Cassel

69.9

Trent Edwards

69.9

|||

Ryan Fitzpatrick

69.7

Kyle Boller

69.1

|||

Brady Quinn

67.2

Jay Cutler

67.3

|||

Kerry Collins

65.5

Ryan Fitzpatrick

64.3

|||

Mark Sanchez

63.0

Mark Sanchez

60.9

|||

Kyle Boller

61.2

JaMarcus Russell

56.4

|||

Matt Stafford

61.0

Matt Stafford

54.1

|||

Josh Freeman

59.8

Jake Delhomme

51.5

|||

Jake Delhomme

59.4

Josh Freeman

46.4

|||

JaMarcus Russell

50.0

Derek Anderson

46.3

|||

Derek Anderson

42.1

 

Coming tomorrow: We reveal the initial NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the 2010 season and give our predictions for each division.

January 2, 2009

NCAA 2008-09 College Football Playoff Simulation–Semifinal Round

NCAA 2008 College Football Playoff Simulation

Semifinal Round

 

Welcome to season number two of the NCAA College Football Playoff Simulation.  For those reading this blog for the first time, the PiRate College Football Playoffs take the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC as automatic qualifiers.  Any of the remaining conference champions (including the top independent) that finish in the top 16 in the final regular season BCS Standings also qualify automatically.  At-large teams are then selected in the order of BCS finish until 12 total teams have been selected.  The 12 teams are seeded by BCS ranking.

 

Here is how the 12 teams were selected for the 2008 playoffs.

 

Top Six Conference Champions

ACC-Virginia Tech 9-4 seeded 12th

Big East Champion-Cincinnati 11-2 seeded 11th

Big Ten-Penn State 11-1 seeded 8th

Big 12-Oklahoma 12-1 seeded 1st

Pac-10-Southern Cal 11-1 seeded 5th

SEC-Florida 12-1 seeded 2nd

 

Automatic Qualifiers By Virtue Of Top 16 In BCS

MWC-Utah 12-0 seeded 6th

WAC-Boise State 12-0 seeded 9th

 

Top Four At-Large To Fill Out 12-Team Field

Texas 11-1 seeded 3rd

Alabama 12-1 seeded 4th

Texas Tech 11-1 seeded 7th

Ohio State 10-2 seeded 10th

 

The PiRate Playoff System uses the top 11 bowl games to play the four rounds.  The 5th through 12th seeds must play in the first round, while the top four seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals.

 

The First Round games were simulated Saturday, December 13.  Here were the results of those games.

 

Insight Bowl: #5 Southern Cal 20 #12 Virginia Tech 6

 

Cotton Bowl: #6 Utah 23 #11 Cincinnati 20 2ot

 

Chick-Fil-a Bowl:  #10 Ohio State 45 #7 Texas Tech 31

 

Outback Bowl: #9 Boise State 34 #8 Penn State 23

 

 

Quarterfinal Round Matches

Simulated December 20

 

Fiesta Bowl

#1 Oklahoma 48  #9 Boise State 21

 

Sugar Bowl

#2 Florida 34  #10 Ohio State 17

 

Capital One Bowl

#3 Texas 35  #6 Utah 17

 

Gator Bowl

#5 Southern Cal 17  #4 Alabama 10

 

 

FINAL FOUR

 

Rose Bowl

#1 Oklahoma 13-1 vs. #5 Southern Cal 13-1

 

Orange Bowl

#2 Florida 13-1 vs. #3 Texas 12-1

 

RESULTS OF SEMIFINAL GAMES

 

Rose Bowl

 

Southern California 27  Oklahoma 14

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

Oklahoma

7

0

7

0

 

14

Southern Cal

10

3

7

7

 

27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OKL

Stat

USC

 

 

 

 

18

FD

22

 

 

 

 

21-77

Rush-Yds

39-148

 

 

 

 

282

Pass Yds

267

 

 

 

 

25-43-2

Passes

19-33-0

 

 

 

 

5-42.4

Punt

4-38.8

 

 

 

 

1-9

PR

2-31

 

 

 

 

7-60

Pen

5-35

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

64

Play

72

 

 

 

 

359

Tot Yds

415

 

 

Mark Sanchez threw touchdown passes to Michael Turner on consecutive drives at the end of the 3rd quarter and beginning of the fourth quarter after Oklahoma had taken a 14-13 lead.  The USC defense held the Sooners to 11 total yards and no first downs in the final quarter, sacking Sam Bradfors twice on 3rd down plays.

 

Orange Bowl

 

Florida 49  Texas 35

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

Florida

14

14

7

14

 

49

Texas

7

14

7

7

 

35

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fla

Stat

Tex

 

 

 

 

25

FD

19

 

 

 

 

39-183

Rush-Yds

18-44

 

 

 

 

290

Pass Yds

332

 

 

 

 

25-38-0

Passes

27-41-1

 

 

 

 

0-0

Punt

3-42.3

 

 

 

 

1-12

PR

0-0

 

 

 

 

6-44

Pen

8-58

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

77

Play

59

 

 

 

 

473

Tot Yds

376

 

 

Florida scored touchdowns on their first four possessions, as Tim Tebow started the game 15-18 for 176 yards.  Colt McCoy brought the Longhorns back in the second quarter; trailing 28-7, he led Texas on two quick scoring drives, topping the second one with a nine yard touchdown scamper.

 

With the score tied 35-35, Tebow ran off-tackle 26 yards for the go-ahead score, and then linebacker Brandon Spikes intercepted McCoy and returned it 41 yards for the touchdown that sealed the game.

 

National Championship Game

 

Florida 14-1  vs. Southern Cal 14-1

 

This game will be simulated January 7th

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