NFL Report For Week 2–September 10-14, 2015

What an amazing week one for the NFL season.  The game pitting the worst two teams from 2014 featured the two most recent Heisman Trophy winners.  Tampa Bay and Jameis Winston hosted Tennessee and Marcus Mariota.

If you didn’t see the outcome or the stats from that game, all you have to do is look at this week’s Sports Illustrated cover.  Mariota graces the cover of SI for the second time in five months and the sixth time overall.

The 2015 Heisman Trophy winner completed 13 of 16 passes for 209 yards and 4 TDs, as the Titans raced to a 35-7 halftime lead.  Mariota’s four TD passes came in the first half, and backup Zach Mettenberger replaced him in the second half, so Mariota’s day ended with just 16 pass attempts.

On his first touchdown pass, Mariota was aligned in the shotgun and apparently handed off to running back Bishop Sankey.  Even the CBS announcer began his play-by-play of the play in question by saying, “Mariota, he gives it to…”

Mariota’s fake from the apparent zone read play forced the Buccaneer linebackers to freeze, while Kendall Wright found the hole in the secondary coverage.  Mariota hit Wright in the seam of what looked like a cover 1 defense (man-to-man with a free safety), leading him perfectly and zipping the ball on a rope.  Wright caught the ball in full stride without hesitation and then split defenders to finish the 52 yard play.

One play does not foretell a Hall of Fame career, but Mariota gave several more examples that he could be a legitimate future star.  In earning NFL Player of The Week and Rookie Player of The Week honors, Mariota placed himself in some ritzy company.

Only one quarterback in the history of the NFL tossed four touchdown passes in his first game.  That man was Hall of Famer Fran Tarkenton, who while playing for the expansion team Minnesota Vikings, did this in 1961 against the Chicago Bears.  Tarkenton needed all four quarters to record the feat; Mariota did it in less than 30 minutes.

Mariota’s maximum QB rating for his first game has never been equaled in the history of the NFL back to 1933.  No QB who threw at least 10 passes in his first game ever recorded a 158.3 rating in his first start.

What about an encore?  Unless Josh McCown makes a miraculous recovery from a concussion and is cleared to play Sunday, Mariota gets to face the Heisman Trophy winner from the year before his adversary Winston.  The Titans venture north to take on Johnny Football (Manziel) and the Cleveland Browns.

Thursday night gives the public a chance to view Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos taking on Kansas City.  Manning’s season opener was a bit concerning for the Broncos.  His 24-40-1 for 150 yards and 0 TD and a bad back have football pundits wondering if maybe the time has come for Manning to become a full-time pizzeria owner.

Those pundits are not seeing the entire field.  The Broncos have a lot of problems, but Manning is not the primary concern.  Yes, Manning has lost some zip on his passes, but Denver has many more worries, like a green offensive line, no running game, and just two quality receivers.  Oh, and the Broncos were not playing against the Tampa Bay defense.  Baltimore’s defense has produced a lot of long days for opposing quarterbacks.

Let’s at least get through September before we crown Mariota the next superstar and proclaim Manning’s career over.

 

This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Dallas	106.3	105.0	106.8	106.0	1-0-0	27	26
Philadelphia	104.0	103.3	104.2	103.8	0-1-0	24	26
N.Y. Giants	100.5	100.3	101.2	100.7	0-1-0	26	27
Washington	93.0	92.0	92.1	92.4	0-1-0	10	17
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	108.3	107.2	108.6	108.0	1-0-0	31	23
Detroit	102.7	101.6	102.6	102.3	0-1-0	28	33
Minnesota	99.2	96.1	100.3	98.5	0-1-0	3	20
Chicago	96.0	95.4	96.3	95.9	0-1-0	23	31
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Carolina	100.9	100.7	101.1	100.9	1-0-0	20	9
New Orleans	99.5	95.1	99.9	98.2	0-1-0	19	31
Atlanta	96.4	96.7	96.8	96.6	1-0-0	26	24
Tampa Bay	89.3	90.4	88.7	89.5	0-1-0	14	42
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Seattle	106.7	106.2	106.6	106.5	0-1-0	31	34
Arizona	101.9	100.8	102.5	101.7	1-0-0	31	19
San Francisco	100.6	98.2	100.7	99.8	1-0-0	20	3
St. Louis	97.0	99.3	96.4	97.6	1-0-0	34	31
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England	107.8	107.7	107.6	107.7	1-0-0	28	21
Buffalo	101.2	102.3	101.5	101.7	1-0-0	27	14
Miami	98.9	100.4	98.4	99.2	1-0-0	17	10
N. Y. Jets	98.9	99.0	99.1	99.0	1-0-0	31	10
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	106.4	104.8	107.7	106.3	0-1-0	13	19
Cincinnati	103.6	104.3	103.6	103.8	1-0-0	33	13
Pittsburgh	102.9	103.0	102.8	102.9	0-1-0	21	28
Cleveland	94.2	91.9	94.0	93.4	0-1-0	10	31
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	103.3	104.1	103.0	103.5	0-1-0	14	27
Houston	97.3	98.8	96.9	97.7	0-1-0	20	27
Tennessee	96.7	96.7	97.8	97.1	1-0-0	42	14
Jacksonville	89.7	94.5	88.4	90.9	0-1-0	9	20
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Denver	105.9	105.1	105.5	105.5	1-0-0	19	13
San Diego	101.0	101.9	100.9	101.3	1-0-0	33	28
Kansas City	100.5	102.5	100.8	101.3	1-0-0	27	20
Oakland	89.4	94.7	87.2	90.4	0-1-0	13	33

This Week’s Games
Week Number:	2
Date of Games:	September 17-21
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Kansas City	Denver	-2.4	0.4	-1.7
Carolina	Houston	6.6	4.9	7.2
Pittsburgh	San Francisco	6.3	8.8	6.1
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	12.7	7.2	13.7
Minnesota	Detroit	-1.0	-3.0	0.2
Chicago	Arizona	-2.9	-2.4	-3.2
Buffalo	New England	-4.1	-2.9	-3.6
Cincinnati	San Diego	6.1	5.9	6.2
Cleveland	Tennessee	0.5	-1.8	-0.8
NY Giants	Atlanta	7.1	6.6	7.4
Washington	St. Louis	-1.0	-4.3	-1.3
Jacksonville	Miami	-7.2	-3.9	-8.0
Oakland	Baltimore	-13.5	-6.6	-17.2
Philadelphia	Dallas	0.7	1.3	0.4
Green Bay	Seattle	4.6	4.0	5.0
Indianapolis	NY Jets	7.4	8.1	6.9

 

NFL Report For Week 1–September 10-14, 2015

The 2015 NFL Football season begins with major quarterback news.  Tom Brady, expected to be out four games, is now in.  Tim Tebow, expected to be in as an Eagle reserve, is now out.  Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, the 2013 and 2014 Heisman Trophy winners, face off in week one in football’s equivalent of Magic Johnson and Larry Bird.  Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 100% healthy, but he hasn’t a healthy top-flight receiver.  Former Heisman winners RGIII and Johnny Football begins the year as backups, while veterans Matt Flynn, Christian Ponder, and Matt Cassel are men without a country, er team.  As for Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Harvard scholar inherits the unenviable task of trying not to throw interceptions (3.5% rate for career) for the Jets, where each bad play will be scrutinized like the name on the back of the jersey reads, “Trump” or “Clinton.”

 

By next Sunday, all will be well, and on the field results will take over for off the field news.  The PiRates have finalized the preseason ratings and have calculated their first spreads of the season.

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Dallas	106.9	105.6	107.6	106.7	0-0-0	0	0
Philadelphia	104.7	103.9	105.2	104.6	0-0-0	0	0
N.Y. Giants	99.9	99.7	100.4	100.0	0-0-0	0	0
Washington	93.2	92.1	92.5	92.6	0-0-0	0	0
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	108.5	107.5	109.1	108.4	0-0-0	0	0
Detroit	102.9	101.8	103.4	102.7	0-0-0	0	0
Minnesota	100.5	97.4	101.9	99.9	0-0-0	0	0
Chicago	95.8	95.1	95.8	95.6	0-0-0	0	0
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Carolina	100.8	100.0	101.0	100.6	0-0-0	0	0
New Orleans	100.1	95.4	101.1	98.9	0-0-0	0	0
Atlanta	95.7	96.1	95.8	95.9	0-0-0	0	0
Tampa Bay	92.1	93.4	92.0	92.5	0-0-0	0	0
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Seattle	107.8	106.9	108.0	107.6	0-0-0	0	0
Arizona	101.3	100.5	101.3	101.0	0-0-0	0	0
San Francisco	99.3	96.9	99.1	98.4	0-0-0	0	0
St. Louis	95.9	98.6	95.0	96.5	0-0-0	0	0
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England	107.9	107.9	107.9	107.9	0-0-0	0	0
Buffalo	99.8	100.6	99.6	100.0	0-0-0	0	0
Miami	98.7	100.3	98.0	99.0	0-0-0	0	0
N. Y. Jets	97.7	98.2	97.5	97.8	0-0-0	0	0
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	106.7	105.1	108.2	106.7	0-0-0	0	0
Cincinnati	102.9	103.3	102.9	103.0	0-0-0	0	0
Pittsburgh	102.8	102.8	102.5	102.7	0-0-0	0	0
Cleveland	95.4	92.7	95.6	94.6	0-0-0	0	0
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	104.7	105.8	104.9	105.1	0-0-0	0	0
Houston	97.6	99.1	97.5	98.1	0-0-0	0	0
Tennessee	93.9	93.7	94.5	94.0	0-0-0	0	0
Jacksonville	89.8	95.2	88.5	91.2	0-0-0	0	0
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Denver	105.6	104.8	105.0	105.1	0-0-0	0	0
San Diego	100.8	101.7	100.1	100.9	0-0-0	0	0
Kansas City	100.2	102.2	100.2	100.9	0-0-0	0	0
Oakland	90.1	95.7	87.9	91.2	0-0-0	0	0

Week One Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
New England	Pittsburgh	8.1	8.1	8.4
Arizona	New Orleans	4.2	8.1	3.2
Buffalo	Indianapolis	-1.9	-2.2	-2.3
Chicago	Green Bay	-9.7	-9.4	-10.3
Dallas	N. Y. Giants	9.5	8.4	9.7
Denver	Baltimore	1.9	2.7	-0.2
Houston	Kansas City	-0.6	-1.1	-0.7
Jacksonville	Carolina	-9.0	-2.8	-10.5
N. Y. Jets	Cleveland	4.8	8.0	4.4
Oakland	Cincinnati	-9.8	-4.6	-12.0
San Diego	Detroit	0.9	2.9	-0.3
St. Louis	Seattle	-8.9	-5.3	-10.0
Tampa Bay	Tennessee	0.7	2.2	0.0
Washington	Miami	-3.5	-6.2	-3.5
Atlanta	Philadelphia	-6.5	-5.3	-6.9
San Francisco	Minnesota	1.8	2.5	0.2

 Coming later this week:  Our solution to shortening the preseason while gaining revenue and increasing the fan base.

 

2015 AFC South Preview

Indianapolis and the Three Dwarfs:  Since the AFC South was formed, all four member teams have had their turn as the top banana, but there has been one consistent theme.  When Tennessee was dominant in the early 2000’s, the Colts were the chief competitor usually finishing a game behind or ahead of the Titans.

When Jacksonville was tough with their stable of tough running backs, it was Indianapolis that was 14-2 when the Jags were 12-4.

When Houston began to shine a few years ago, once again, their competition was the Colts.

Now, the Colts have no competition in the South.  Houston lacks a quarterback that can get them to the playoffs, and J. J. Watt cannot make 30 sacks to level the playing field.  Jacksonville has more rebuilding to do before they can even challenge for an 8-8 record.  Tennessee has been down for six years, and the Titans have as many holes in their roster as a piece of Swiss cheese.  The Colts could go 6-0 in divisional play, while the other three teams all finish 2-4.

 

Houston surprised the football world by rebounding from 2-14 to go 9-7 and almost make the playoffs.  The Texans’ schedule goes from one of the easiest with all the last place teams to one of the more difficult with two extra second place teams (Kansas City and Cincinnati instead of Oakland and Cleveland).  The Texans lose their star receiver in Andre Johnson, and Brian Hoyer passing to Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington as options to DeAndre Hopkins does not have the look of a playoff contender.

Andrew Luck compares with Peyton Manning in that he has taken over this team and led them to divisional dominance.  He also compares a little to Andy Dalton in that the Colts keep coming up short in the playoffs.  However, as we stated about Dalton, it is not his fault when the Colts’ defense gives up 45 points to the Patriots.  This year, Indianapolis’s offense is set to take a step up to the very top of the AFC.  The Colts add Andre Johnson to a roster already stocked with offensive stars.  An improved defense should give Indy a strong chance at competing for the best overall record in the AFC and a good shot at playing in February.

Jacksonville has been number 31 or 32 in the league for multiple seasons.  At one time, the Jaguars were the leading team to relocate to Los Angeles.  At one time, they were more than 21-point underdogs in a game.  Jacksonville might have been picked to contend for an 8-8 record this year had bad luck not hit this team in the Spring.  Top draft choice Dante Fowler was lost for the season with an ACL injury.  Fowler could have been the Jags’ Watt and improve the defense by a touchdown per game.  Now, they have little pass rush, and enemy quarterbacks will be a lot more comfortable on Sunday.

Tennessee puts all their eggs in the Marcus Mariota basket.  Eventually, we believe Mariota will prove to be the right choice for the Titans, but as a rookie with a vulnerable offensive line, we expect backup Zach Mettenberger to be the starter by midseason and possibly Clay Whitehurst by December.  The Titans defense made a couple of key additions by signing Brian Orakpo and adding legendary defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau as assistant head coach.  LeBeau might wish he had retired with the liabilities in the line and in the secondary.

 

HOUSTON TEXANS

Texans Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	DeAndre Hopkins
WR	Cecil Shorts
WR	Nate Washington
TE	Garrett Graham
LT	Duane Brown
LG	Xavier Su’a-Filo
C	Ben Jones
RG	Brandon Brooks
RT	Derek Newton
QB	Brian Hoyer
HB	Alfred Blue
FB	Jay Prosch
Defense
DE	Jared Crick
DT	Vince Wilfork
DE	J. J. Watt
LB	John Simon
LB	Brian Cushing
LB	Mike Mohamed
LB	Jadeveon Clowney
CB	Kareem Jackson
S	Rahim Moore
S	Stevie Brown
CB	Johnathan Joseph
N5	A. J. Bouye
Special
Kicker	Randy Bullock
Punter	Shane Lechler
KR	Chandler Worthy
PR	Chandler Worthy

Houston Texans
Head Coach	Bill O’Brien
Off. Coordinator	George Godsey
Def. Coordinator	Romeo Crennel
2014 W-L-T	9-7-0
Pts	23.3
Opp	19.2
Ratings
PiRate	97.6
Mean	99.1
Bias	97.5
Average	98.1
Grades
Running	B+
Passing	D
Vs. Run	A
Vs. Pass	C+
Special Teams	C
Coaching + Intangibles	C
Predicted W-L	7-9-0
Division Rank	2
Conference Rank	11
Overall Rank	22
Postseason	No

 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Colts Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Andre Johnson
WR	T. Y. Hilton
TE	Dwayne Allen
TE	Coby Fleener
LT	Anthony Costanzo
LG	Lance Louis
C	Khaled Holmes
RG	Todd Herremans
RT	Jack Mewhort
QB	Andrew Luck
HB	Frank Gore
FB	(NONE)
Defense
DE	Kendall Langford
DT	Josh Champan
DT	Arthur Jones
LB	Trent Cole
LB	Jerrell Freeman
LB	D’Qwell Jackson
LB	Erik Walden
CB	Greg Toler
S	Mike Adams
S	Dwight Lowery
CB	Vontae Davis
N5	Darius Butler
Special
Kicker	Adam Vinatiari
Punter	Pat McAfee
KR	Dan Herron
PR	Phillip Dorsett

Indianapolis Colts
Head Coach	Chuck Pagano
Off. Coordinator	Pep Hamilton
Def. Coordinator	Greg Manusky
2014 W-L-T	11-5-0
Pts	28.6
Opp	23.1
Ratings
PiRate	104.7
Mean	105.8
Bias	104.9
Average	105.1
Grades
Running	B
Passing	A+
Vs. Run	C
Vs. Pass	C
Special Teams	A
Coaching + Intangibles	B-
Predicted W-L	10-6-0
Division Rank	1
Conference Rank	4
Overall Rank	7
Postseason	Yes

 

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Jaguars Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Allen Robinson
WR	Allen Hurns
TE	Julius Thomas
TE	Marcedes Lewis
LT	Luke Joeckel
LG	Zane Beadles
C	Stefen Wisniewski
RG	Brandon Linder
RT	Jermey Parnell
QB	Blake Bortles
HB	T. J. Yeldon
FB	(NONE)
Defense
DE	Andre Branch
DT	Ziggy Hood
DT	Tyson Alualu
DE	Jared Odrick
LB	Telvin Smith
LB	Paul Posluszny
LB	Dan Skuta
CB	Davon House
S	Craig Loston
S	Sergio Brown
CB	Aaron Colvin
N5	Josh Evans
Special
Kicker	Josh Scobee
Punter	Bryan Anger
KR	Denard Robinson
PR	Rashad Greene

Jacksonville Jaguars
Head Coach	Gus Bradley
Off. Coordinator	Greg Olson
Def. Coordinator	Bob Babich
2014 W-L-T	3-13-0
Pts	15.6
Opp	25.8
Ratings
PiRate	89.8
Mean	95.2
Bias	88.5
Average	91.2
Grades
Running	C-
Passing	D
Vs. Run	C-
Vs. Pass	C-
Special Teams	C
Coaching + Intangibles	C-
Predicted W-L	5-11-0
Division Rank	4
Conference Rank	16
Overall Rank	32
Postseason	No

 

TENNESSEE TITANS

Titans Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Kendall Wright
WR	Harry Douglas
TE	Delanie Walker
TE	Anthony Fasano
LT	Taylor Lewan
LG	Byron Bell
C	Brian Schwenke
RG	Chance Warmack
RT	Jeremiah Poutasi
QB	Marcus Mariota
HB	Bishop Sankey
FB	Jalston Fowler
Defense
DE	DaQuan Jones
DT	Sammie Hill
DT	Jurrell Casey
LB	Derrick Morgan
LB	Zach Brown
LB	Avery Williamson
LB	Brian Orakpo
CB	Perrish Cox
S	Da’Norris Searcy
S	Michael Griffin
CB	Jason McCourty
N5	Coty Sensabaugh
Special
Kicker	Ryan Succop
Punter	Brett Kern
KR	Dexter McCluster
PR	Dexter McCluster

Tennessee Titans
Head Coach	Ken Whisenhunt
Off. Coordinator	Jason Michael
Def. Coordinator	Ray Horton
2014 W-L-T	2-14-0
Pts	15.9
Opp	27.4
Ratings
PiRate	93.9
Mean	93.7
Bias	94.5
Average	94.0
Grades
Running	C
Passing	C+
Vs. Run	C
Vs. Pass	B-
Special Teams	B
Coaching + Intangibles	C
Predicted W-L	7-9-0
Division Rank	3
Conference Rank	14
Overall Rank	28
Postseason	No

 

2013 Pac-12 Conference Preview

2013 Pac-12 Conference Preview

 

Get ready for an exciting season of college football on the West Coast.  The 2013 Pac-12 conference should have two heated races in the divisions.

 

This is a year of transition, and there are no true clear-cut favorites.  On paper, Oregon looks like the class of the league, but the Ducks will not have Coach Chip Kelly on the sidelines, as well as Kenjon Barner and his 1,700+ rushing yards, as well as three of the top five defensive stoppers from 2012.

 

Don’t discount the Ducks.  New coach Mark Elfrich has enough talent to take the Quack Attack back to the National Championship Game.  However, to do so, Oregon will have to win at Stanford.  The Cardinal won at Autzen Stadium last year.

 

Speaking of Stanford, this could be an even stronger edition in Palo Alto this season.  Kevin Hogan proved to be a very capable successor to Andrew Luck, and he will enjoy having the top offensive line  in the league.  However, the Cardinal lost all their key receivers and their key running back.  SU will continue to shine and contend for national honors thanks to a top-notch defense that could yield as few as 15 points per game this year.

 

Oregon St. is lying in ambush of the big two in the Pac-12 North Division.  The Beavers have top 10 talent, albeit third best in this division.  OSU could easily start the season at 7-0 before closing with a brutal stretch of games against Stanford, USC, Arizona St., Washington, and Oregon.  It will be hard topping 4-1 in those five games, and 2-3 may be more likely.

 

Washington is just a step below the big three in the North Division.  The Huskies will take a backseat to nobody on the attack side of the ball.  Coach Steve Sarkisian has one of the best receiving corps in the country, and quarterback Keith Price has 3,500 yard potential.  The Husky defense should be slightly improved, but the schedule prohibits it from a high national ranking.

 

Washington St. and California are well back of the top four in the North Division.  Washington St. starts year two of the Mike Leach era.  He must direct a new quarterback and replace the top receiver from last year.  WSU averaged the worst rushing production in modern day times, when the Cougars ran for just 29 yards per game in 2012.  Of course, sacks (57 in all) played a huge part, and if you count the rushing the proper way, like the NFL, the number inflates to 60 yards per game and a 3.7 average per attempt.

 

California becomes the next team to switch to the Air-Raid Offense, as former Louisiana Tech head man Sonny Dykes takes over in Berkeley.  Look for UC to pass the ball about 45-50 times per game, but it will be a long season at Memorial Stadium with a major rebuilding project commencing.

 

The South Division will be more competitive than the North with four teams in contention.  Our preseason ratings show less than two points separating the top four teams, which is less than the home field advantages for each team.  A 7-2 conference mark could be enough to win the division outright, and a 6-3 record could once again be all that is needed (UCLA last year).

 

This could be a do or die year for Lane Kiffin as coach of the USC Trojans.  The men of Troy failed to live up to expectations last year, finishing just 5-4 in league play and failing to show up against Georgia Tech in the Sun Bowl.  Max Wittek and Cody Kessler are battling to replace Matt Barkley at quarterback, and star receiver Marqise Lee has given statements to the media that the lack of naming a starter could be causing a stir within the team.  We cannot name the Trojans as the team to beat in the South, as possible dissension and lack of leadership could cause the demise of Kiffin in Los Angeles.

 

The team that we believe has the best chance of winning the division is Arizona St.  The Sun Devils are strong but not spectacular at every position on the field, and there is quality depth for second year head man Todd Graham.  Graham has produced winners everywhere he has coached, but his problem has been stating put.  He is the Larry Brown of football.  Should he decide to stick around Tempe for a lengthy stay, he could restore this program to the lofty status it enjoyed under Frank Kush in the 1970’s.  We look for a Kush-like year at Sun Devil Stadium; ASU should top 200 yards rushing, 200 yards passing, and 40 points per game.

 

UCLA faces a minor rebuilding project on the defensive side of the ball, but the Bruins have enough talent back to contend for the South Division title.  Brett Hundley is the best pure drop back passer in the league, and he could approach 4,000 passing yards.

 

Arizona should be vastly improved on the defensive side of the ball, and when a Rich Rodriguez team plays decent defense, you have to consider his team a legitimate contender for a league title.  The Spread offense will always produce points and access yardage, so the Wildcats are right there with the other three contenders this year.

 

Utah is starting to fall well back of the contenders in this division.  The Utes fell to 3-6 in league play last year, and we do not believe they can match that mark this year.  There isn’t enough talent in Salt Lake City.  The Utes had to fight off a scrappy Colorado team last year, and Cal drops off the schedule with a trip to Oregon as the replacement.  Throw in the regular non-conference games against BYU and Utah St., and it looks like a long year for Coach Kyle Whittingham’s crew.

 

Colorado edged Washington St. by one point last year to avoid an 0-12 season.  A loss to Sacramento St. basically brought about the end of the Jon Embree era in Boulder.  Enter former San Jose St. coach Mike MacIntyre.  In year one, the Buffaloes better be ready to play their best in week two against Central Arkansas, or CU could be looking at 0-12.  Give MacIntyre time, and he will turn things around at Folsom Field.

 

New Teams: None

 

Departures: None

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

Pacific 12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oregon	0-0	0-0	127.9	119.7	128.8
Stanford	0-0	0-0	127.1	115.9	126.8
Oregon St.	0-0	0-0	121.3	108.6	120.0
Washington	0-0	0-0	117.5	112.6	118.0
Washington St.	0-0	0-0	100.3	96.1	99.9
California	0-0	0-0	97.8	91.9	95.5
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
U S C	0-0	0-0	116.9	111.4	116.8
Arizona	0-0	0-0	116.2	108.8	115.1
Arizona St.	0-0	0-0	115.5	113.1	115.9
U C L A	0-0	0-0	115.2	103.0	114.1
Utah	0-0	0-0	99.7	96.7	98.5
Colorado	0-0	0-0	89.8	85.9	87.6
League Averages			112.1	105.3	111.4

 

 

Official Pac-12 Preseason Media Poll

 

Pos	Team	Points	1st Place
NORTH DIVISION
1	Oregon	145	15
2	Stanford	139	11
3	Oregon St.	95	0
4	Washington	84	0
5	California	47	0
6	Washington St.	33	0
Pos	Team	Points	1st Place
SOUTH DIVISION
1	U C L A	135	12
2	Arizona St.	130	10
3	Southern Cal	117	4
4	Arizona	76	0
5	Utah	60	0
6	Colorado	28	0
Pac-12 Title Game Champion
	Oregon	14
	Stanford	8
	U C L A	3

 

The Pac-12 did not release an official preseason all-conference team, so we will list the key players for each team with stats from 2012 in parentheses.

 

North Division

 

California

Brendan Bigelow—RB (431 rush/9.8 avg  Breakaway runner)

Chris Harper—WR (41-544)

Richard Rodgers—WR (20-288)

DeAndre Coleman—DL (48 tackles/3 sacks/8.5 TFL)

Nick Forbes—LB (85 tackles/4 Passes Defended)

Michael Lowe—DB (3 Int.)

 

Oregon

Marcus Mariota—QB (68.5% comp./8.0 ypa/32TD/6 Int./860 Rush [minus sacks])

Josh Huff—WR (32-493/7 TD)

Colt Lyerla—TE (25-392/6 TD)

De’Anthony Thomas—Slot (701 rush/11 rush TD/45-445 rec./5 rec. TD/17.1 PR avg and 1 TD/1 KR TD)

Hroniss Grassu, Jake Fisher, and Tyler Johnstone—OL

Taylor Hart—DL (36 tackles/8 sacks/11 TFL)

Ito Ekpre-Olomu—DB (4 Int./20 Passes Defended)

Terrance Mitchell—DB (8 Passes Defended)

 

Oregon St.

Cody Vaz and Sean Mannion—QB (look for both to see action where they combined for 3,926 passing yards and 26 TD)

Storm Woods—RB (940 Rush/13 TD)

Brandon Cooks—WR (67-1,151/5 TD)

Grant Enger and Michael Philipp—OL

Scott Crichton—DL (9 sacks/17.5 TFL)

Michael Doctor—LB (83 tackles/11 TFL/5 Passes Defended)

Rashaad Reynolds—DB (3 Int./16 Passes Defended)

Keith Kostol—P (41.9 avg/38.5 net/41% inside 20)

 

Stanford

Kevin Hogan—QB (71.7% comp.)

Kevin Danser and David Yankey—OL

Henry Anderson—DL (51 tackles/5.5 sacks/13 TFL/5 Passes Defended)

Ben Gardner—DL (49 tackles/7.5 sacks/14.5 TFL5 Passes Defended)

Trent Murphy—LB (56 tackles/10 sacks/18 TFL/6 QB hurries/5 Passes Defended)

Jordan Richards—DB (68 tackles/3 Int./15 Passes Defended)

Ed Reynolds—DB (47 tackles/6 Int./11 Passes Defended)

 

Washington

Keith Price—QB (60.9% comp./19 TD/13 Int.)

Bishop Sankey—RB (1,439 rush/5.0 avg/16 TD/33-249 rec.)

Kasen Williams—WR (77-878/6 TD)

Danny Shelton—DL (45 tackles/4 TFL)

John Timu—LB (91 tackles/6 Passes Defended)

Shaq Thompson—LB (74 tackles/8.5 TFL/3 Int./6 Passes Defended)

Sean Parker—DB (77 tackles/6 Passes Defended)

 

Washington St.

Gabe Marks—WR (49-560)

Dominique Williams—WR (34-546)

Elliott Bosch—OL

Cyrus Coen—LB (60 tackles/3 sacks/12 TFL/3 Int./7 Passes Defended)

Deone Bucannon—DB (106 tackles/4 Int./8 Passes Defended)

Andrew Furney—K (Made 60-yard FG last year)

 

South Division

 

Arizona

Ka’Deem Carey—RB (1,929 rush/6.4 avg/23 TD/36-303 rec.)

Jake Fischer—LB (119 tackles/6.5 FL)

Marquise Flowers—LB (100 tackles/5.5 sacks/13 TFL/3 Int./6 Passes Defended)

Jonathan McKnight—DB (51 tackles/3 Int./7 Passes Defended)

Richard Morrison—PR (13-10.2/1 TD)

 

Arizona St.

Taylor Kelly—QB (67.1% comp./8.5 ypa/29 TD/9 Int.)

Marion Grice—RB (679 rush/6.6 avg/11 TD/41-425 rec./8 TD rec.)

Chris Coyle—TE (57-696/5 TD)

Evan Finkenberg—OL

Will Sutton—DL (63 tackles/13 sacks/23.5 TFL)

Carl Bradford—LB (81 tackles/11.5 sacks/20.5 TFL/5 Passes Defended)

Alden Darby—DB (80 tackles/3 Int./7 Passes Defended)

Osahon Irabor—DB (14 Passes Defended)

 

Colorado

Christian Powell—RB (691 rush/4.4 avg./7 TD)

Nelson Spruce—WR (44-446/3 TD)

Paul Richardson—WR (former 1,000+ rec. yards/missed 2012)

Daniel Munyer—OL

Chidera Uzo-Diribe—DL (43 tackles/7 sacks/10.5 TFL)

Derrick Webb—LB (88 tackles/5.5 TFL)

 

Southern Cal

Silas Redd—RB (905 rush/5.4 avg./9 TD)

Marqise Lee—WR (118-1,721/14 TD/8.2 rush avg./28.5 KR/1 KRTD/Should be 1^st or 2^nd pick in 2014 NFL Draft)

Marcus Martin, John Martinez, and Max Tuerk—OL

Leonard Williams—DL (64 tackles/8 sacks/13.5 TFL/5 Passes Defended)

Morgan Breslin—DL (62 tackles/13 sacks/19.5 TFL)

Hayes Pullard—LB (107 tackles/8 TFL)

Dion Bailey—DB (80 tackles/8 TFL/4 Int./9 Passes Defended)

 

U C L A

Brett Hundley—QB (66.5% comp./29 TD/11 Int.)

Shaquelle Evans—WR (60-877)

Jake Brendel and Xavier Su’A-Filo—OL

Cassius Marsh—DL (50 tackles/8 sacks/10.5 TFL)

Eric Kendricks—LB (150 tackles/6 TFL/5 Passes Defended)

Anthony Barr—LB (83 tackles/13.5 sacks/21.5 TFL/5 Passes Defended)

 

Utah

Travis Wilson—QB (62.7% comp.)

Jeremiah Poutasi—OL

Trevor Reilly—DL (69 tackles/4.5 sacks/6.5 TFL/5 Passes Defended)

 

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100         A+

86-92           A

79-85           A-

72-78           B+

65-71           B

58-64           B-

51-57           C+

44-50           C

37-43           C-

30-36           D

0-29             F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

North Division

Team	California Golden Bears
Head Coach	Sonny Dykes
Colors	Blue and Gold
City	Berkeley, CA
2012 Record
Conference	2-7
Overall	3-9
Grades
Run Offense	52
Pass Offense	77
Run Defense	69
Pass Defense	52
Ratings
PiRate	97.8
Mean	91.9
Bias	95.5
Rankings
PiRate	71
Mean	96
Bias	78
Prediction
Conference	2-7
Overall	3-9

 

 

Team	Oregon Ducks
Head Coach	Mark Helfrich
Colors	Green and Gold
City	Eugene, OR
2012 Record
Conference	8-1
Overall	12-1
Grades
Run Offense	100
Pass Offense	91
Run Defense	92
Pass Defense	90
Ratings
PiRate	127.9
Mean	119.7
Bias	128.8
Rankings
PiRate	2
Mean	2
Bias	2
Prediction
Conference	8-1
Overall	11-1

 

 

Team	Oregon St. Beavers
Head Coach	Mike Riley
Colors	Orange and Black
City	Corvallis, OR
2012 Record
Conference	6-3
Overall	9-4
Grades
Run Offense	67
Pass Offense	94
Run Defense	93
Pass Defense	88
Ratings
PiRate	121.3
Mean	108.6
Bias	120.0
Rankings
PiRate	10
Mean	35
Bias	11
Prediction
Conference	7-2
Overall	10-2

 

 

Team	Stanford Cardinal
Head Coach	David Shaw
Colors	Cardinal and White
City	Palo Alto, CA
2012 Record
Conference	8-1 (won Pac-12 Championship)
Overall	12-2
Grades
Run Offense	84
Pass Offense	92
Run Defense	99
Pass Defense	93
Ratings
PiRate	127.1
Mean	115.9
Bias	126.8
Rankings
PiRate	4
Mean	9
Bias	4
Prediction
Conference	9-0 (wins Pac-12 Conf. Championship)
Overall	13-0

 

 

Team	Washington Huskies
Head Coach	Steve Sarkisian
Colors	Purple and Gold
City	Seattle
2012 Record
Conference	5-4
Overall	7-6
Grades
Run Offense	83
Pass Offense	87
Run Defense	82
Pass Defense	78
Ratings
PiRate	117.5
Mean	112.6
Bias	118.0
Rankings
PiRate	16
Mean	22
Bias	15
Prediction
Conference	4-5
Overall	7-5

 

 

Team	Washington St. Cougars
Head Coach	Mike Leach
Colors	Crimson and Gray
City	Pullman, WA
2012 Record
Conference	1-8
Overall	3-9
Grades
Run Offense	25
Pass Offense	93
Run Defense	69
Pass Defense	65
Ratings
PiRate	100.3
Mean	96.1
Bias	99.9
Rankings
PiRate	55
Mean	81
Bias	58
Prediction
Conference	1-8
Overall	3-9

 

 

South Division

Team Arizona Wildcats                 Head Coach Rich Rodriguez                 Colors Cardinal and Navy                 City Tucson, AZ                 2012 Record               Conference 4-5 Overall 8-5                 Grades               Run Offense 93 Pass Offense 88 Run Defense 74 Pass Defense 71                 Ratings               PiRate 116.2 Mean 108.8 Bias 115.1                 Rankings               PiRate 21 Mean 33 Bias 26                 Prediction               Conference 5-4 Overall 8-4     Team Arizona St. Sun Devils                 Head Coach Todd Graham                 Colors Maroon and Gold                 City Tempe, AZ                 2012 Record               Conference 5-4 Overall 8-5                 Grades               Run Offense 71 Pass Offense 88 Run Defense 86 Pass Defense 76                 Ratings               PiRate 115.5 Mean 113.1 Bias 115.9                 Rankings               PiRate 24 Mean 19 Bias 20                 Prediction               Conference 6-3 (lose Pac-12 Champ. Game) Overall 8-5     Team Colorado Buffaloes                 Head Coach Mike MacIntyre                 Colors Old Gold and Black                 City Boulder, CO                 2012 Record               Conference 1-8 Overall 1-11                 Grades               Run Offense 35 Pass Offense 62 Run Defense 62 Pass Defense 57                 Ratings               PiRate 89.8 Mean 85.9 Bias 87.6                 Rankings               PiRate 92 Mean 113 Bias 98                 Prediction               Conference 0-9 Overall 1-11     Team Southern Cal Trojans                 Head Coach Lane Kiffin                 Colors Cardinal and Gold                 City Los Angeles                 2012 Record               Conference 5-4 Overall 7-6                 Grades               Run Offense 82 Pass Offense 78 Run Defense 95 Pass Defense 76                 Ratings               PiRate 116.9 Mean 111.4 Bias 116.8                 Rankings               PiRate 17 Mean 27 Bias 17                 Prediction               Conference 6-3 Overall 9-4     Team U C L A Bruins                 Head Coach Jim Mora, Jr.                 Colors Deep Sky Blue and Sun Gold                 City Los Angeles                 2012 Record               Conference 6-3 (lost in Pac-12 Champ. Game) Overall 9-5                 Grades               Run Offense 71 Pass Offense 95 Run Defense 78 Pass Defense 74                 Ratings               PiRate 115.2 Mean 103.0 Bias 114.1                 Rankings               PiRate 26 Mean 47 Bias 29                 Prediction               Conference 5-4 Overall 7-5									Colorado Buffaloes
Team									Utah Utes
Head Coach	Kyle Whittingham
Colors	Crimson and White
City	Salt Lake City
2012 Record
Conference	3-6
Overall	5-7
Grades
Run Offense	53
Pass Offense	71
Run Defense	69
Pass Defense	64
Ratings
PiRate	99.7
Mean	96.7
Bias	98.5
Rankings
PiRate	60
Mean	75
Bias	66
Prediction
Conference	1-8
Overall	3-9