Introducing the PiRate NFL Pass Rating Formula

 

The National Football League has been using the same pass rating formula for multiple decades.  It uses a combination of completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns, and interceptions.  If you want to calculate it on your own, here it is:

 

I.     (Completion Percentage-30.0) * 0.05 +

II.    (Yards per attempt-3.0) * 0.25 +

III.   (20 * touchdowns per pass attempt) +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * interceptions per pass attempt)

 

If any of these four components are greater than 2.375, then cap the value at 2.375

 

Add these four stats together and multiple them by 16.667 to get the passer rating.  Here is an example:

 

In 1963, Y. A. Tittle had these stats for the New York Giants

Completions 221  Attempts 367  Yards 3145  Touchdowns 36  Interceptions 14

 

I.     (60.20 – 30.0) * 0.05 = 1.51  +

II.    (8.57-3.0) * 0.25 = 1.39        +

III.   (20 * .098) = 1.96                +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * .038) = 1.43    +

 

 Subtotal = 6.29     6.29 * 16.667 =

                     104.8

 

Once you know this formula, you can easily plug it into a spreadsheet and figure the ratings.  However, these ratings are a poor way to select the most efficient passer.

 

Let’s take a look at two opposing passers, Smith and Jones.

 

Smith completes 15 of 24 passes for 3 touchdowns with no interceptions.

 

Jones completes 10 of 24 passes for 0 touchdowns and 1 interception.

 

Smith is obviously much better, correct?  No, not correct.  It depends on several other things.  What if Jones has a lousy offensive line or receivers that drop every other pass thrown to them?  What if Smith has all day to pass with Jerry Rice-type receivers?  All these stats show us are just that—their stats.

 

Smith could have completed six passes to backs behind the line of scrimmage with the backs following blocking for long gains.  Jones could have threaded the needle with 30 yard passes to the deep sidelines only to have had them dropped by inept receivers.

 

In essence no pass-rating formula is worth a grain of salt.  Let’s look at two separate plays.  Passer A completes 13-yard pass for a touchdown.  It is a dump pass into the flat to the tailback with the tailback avoiding three defenders as he streaks into the end zone.  This one pass gets the NFL Maximum rating of 158.3.

 

Now, let’s look at Passer B.  His team is backed up at their own 1 yard line. He drops back and fires a bomb 55 yards through the air that comes down perfectly in the hands of his flanker.  The flanker takes off down the sideline and is knocked out just one yard from scoring.  This 98-yard pass gives Passer B a rating of 118.8!  Peyton Manning actually had a better total season rating than this a couple years ago, and even though he ranks among the best ever, he was not worth a 98-yard completion every time he threw the ball!

 

Can this be?  You betcha!  The rating is flawed.  Obviously the brilliantly thrown pass that travelled 55 yards past the line of scrimmage that comes down perfectly in the hands of the intended receiver should be worth a lot more than the dump pass that I could complete given two seconds protection.

 

Here is where the PiRate Pass Rating Formula tries to correct the incorrect values of the NFL Pass Rating Formula.

 

Our formula looks at just two statistics.  The first is interception percentage.  An intercepted pass is worth anywhere from 3 to 7 points for the other team on average.  We realize that all interceptions are not the same.  A poorly thrown pass into the flat at the offense’s 20-yard line hurts much more than a 3rd and 25 pass thrown 40 yards downfield and intercepted by the defense. 

 

The second stat is called “Air Yards Per Attempt,” or AYPA.  It is simply the passing yardage minus the yards after catch.  If Passer A completed a 51-yard pass for a touchdown, but the play consisted of a pass completed to a tailback one yard past the line of scrimmage with the back running for 50 yards, the passer gets credit for an AYPA of 1 yard (51 yard pass – 50 yards after the catch).

 

Here is the PiRate Pass Rating Formula:

[AYPA * 7 – (11 * Interception %) + 105] * 0.8

 Interception percentage is figured as: (Interceptions/Attempts) *100

 Anything over 100 is an excellent rating.  Over 90 means the QB is above average.  80 would be considered average; below 80 means this QB should be looking over his shoulder for a replacement to take his job.

 In our passer rating, we don’t include passing percentage or touchdown passes.  Yards gained are what matters.  Three consecutive completed passes that gain a total of nine yards means 4th & 1.  Two incomplete passes followed by an 11 yard completion means 1st & 10.  Which outcome is better?

 Touchdowns skew the ratings.  If one coach sends in passing plays at the opponents’ one yard line, while another sends his 240-pound power back to plunge over the goal, the quarterbacks will get too much credit in once instance and no credit in the other. 

 Let’s take a look at the PiRate Rating in action.  First, you must be wondering where can you find AYPA?  There is an excellent website that carries this stat, so you don’t have to try to figure out the YAC for each QB.  Go to: www.advancednflstats.com. 

 Here is a look at both ratings side-by-side:

Player	PiRate QB Rating		Player	Official NFL Rating
Aaron Rodgers	108.9	|||	Drew Brees	109.6
Drew Brees	107.5	|||	Brett Favre	107.2
Brett Favre	106.7	|||	Phil Rivers	104.4
Tony Romo	105.6	|||	Aaron Rodgers	103.2
Phil Rivers	104.8	|||	Ben Roethlisberger	100.5
Ben Roethlisberger	97.9	|||	Peyton Manning	99.9
Matt Schaub	97.8	|||	Matt Schaub	98.6
Peyton Manning	97.2	|||	Tony Romo	97.6
Donovan McNabb	96.3	|||	Tom Brady	96.2
David Garrard	96.1	|||	Kurt Warner	93.2
Kyle Orton	94.7	|||	Eli Manning	93.1
Brad Gradkowski	94.4	|||	Donovan McNabb	92.9
Tom Brady	93.8	|||	Joe Flacco	88.9
Kurt Warner	93.4	|||	Kyle Orton	86.8
Eli Manning	92.8	|||	Jason Campbell	86.4
Vince Young	92.1	|||	Carson Palmer	83.6
Joe Flacco	87.7	|||	David Garrard	83.5
Marc Bulger	86.7	|||	Vince Young	82.8
Jason Campbell	85.4	|||	Alex Smith	81.5
Matt Ryan	83.0	|||	Matt Ryan	80.9
Carson Palmer	81.7	|||	Brad Gradkowski	80.6
Chad Henne	80.8	|||	Jay Cutler	76.8
Alex Smith	79.7	|||	Chad Henne	75.2
Brady Quinn	78.4	|||	Matt Hasselbeck	75.1
Matt Hasselbeck	75.7	|||	Trent Edwards	73.8
Matt Cassel	75.7	|||	Marc Bulger	70.7
Kerry Collins	72.1	|||	Matt Cassel	69.9
Trent Edwards	69.9	|||	Ryan Fitzpatrick	69.7
Kyle Boller	69.1	|||	Brady Quinn	67.2
Jay Cutler	67.3	|||	Kerry Collins	65.5
Ryan Fitzpatrick	64.3	|||	Mark Sanchez	63.0
Mark Sanchez	60.9	|||	Kyle Boller	61.2
JaMarcus Russell	56.4	|||	Matt Stafford	61.0
Matt Stafford	54.1	|||	Josh Freeman	59.8
Jake Delhomme	51.5	|||	Jake Delhomme	59.4
Josh Freeman	46.4	|||	JaMarcus Russell	50.0
Derek Anderson	46.3	|||	Derek Anderson	42.1

 

Coming tomorrow: We reveal the initial NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the 2010 season and give our predictions for each division.

PiRate Ratings Week 13 NFL Previews: November 27-December 1, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 13

Can It Be Giants Vs. Jets In Super Bowl XLIII

 

The two hottest teams in the NFL both call East Rutherford, New Jersey, home.  The New York Giants at 10-1 reign supreme over the NFC.  The New York Jets are 8-3, and Brett Favre and company have won five games in a row by an average score of 34-18.  Three of those wins have come against teams with winning records, and two of them came against teams likely to contend with them for the AFC Championship.

 

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

Current NFL Standings & Ratings
NFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
New York		10	–	1	–	0	329	199	110.19	115.97	110.53	2
Dallas		7	–	4	–	0	265	251	100.76	101.99	104.65	2
Washington		7	–	4	–	0	201	199	99.39	99.65	101.51	2
Philadelphia		5	–	5	–	1	271	229	104.14	102.50	100.63	2
NFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Chicago		6	–	5	–	0	267	234	102.58	100.77	101.77	2
Minnesota		6	–	5	–	0	253	246	102.41	102.33	102.05	2
Green Bay		5	–	6	–	0	303	260	105.09	102.86	101.49	2
Detroit		0	–	11	–	0	193	346	87.33	90.06	88.18	3
NFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Tampa Bay		8	–	3	–	0	257	180	105.88	104.23	105.53	2
Carolina		8	–	3	–	0	250	200	104.27	101.91	104.74	2
Atlanta		7	–	4	–	0	276	226	104.07	101.95	102.91	2
New Orleans		6	–	5	–	0	317	278	102.97	102.16	102.73	2
NFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Arizona		7	–	4	–	0	318	265	103.17	102.77	104.09	3
San Francisco		3	–	8	–	0	252	310	93.22	94.58	93.86	3
Seattle		2	–	9	–	0	207	277	93.26	94.23	93.20	3
St. Louis		2	–	9	–	0	147	344	83.36	88.48	87.67	2
AFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
New York		8	–	3	–	0	323	234	105.83	105.68	107.01	2
New England		7	–	4	–	0	267	222	101.94	102.33	102.56	2
Buffalo		6	–	5	–	0	273	249	99.30	99.62	100.29	3
Miami		6	–	5	–	0	237	245	99.16	98.19	99.97	2
AFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Pittsburgh		8	–	3	–	0	236	160	107.36	104.39	105.25	2
Baltimore		7	–	4	–	0	258	187	107.39	105.27	104.24	3
Cleveland		4	–	7	–	0	207	237	97.72	97.16	96.48	2
Cincinnati		1	–	9	–	1	148	276	92.44	92.92	92.78	2
AFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Tennessee		10	–	1	–	0	257	165	108.61	105.77	106.38	2
Indianapolis		7	–	4	–	0	247	244	102.98	102.44	103.39	2
Jacksonville		4	–	7	–	0	224	240	98.45	98.57	96.91	3
Houston		4	–	7	–	0	252	293	96.90	98.78	97.24	3
AFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Denver		6	–	5	–	0	258	302	94.90	96.24	98.13	2
San Diego		4	–	7	–	0	274	252	102.15	100.47	99.83	2
Oakland		3	–	8	–	0	159	245	92.67	94.49	93.14	2
Kansas City		1	–	10	–	0	196	327	90.16	91.11	90.76	2

 

Note: due to the Thanksgiving holiday, weather forecasts and odds are those as of Wednesday 8 AM EST

 

NFL Previews-Week 13

 

Tennessee (10-1-0) at Detroit (0-11-0)

Time:           12:30 PM EST, Thursday 11/27

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Tennessee by 18                   

Mean:           Tennessee by 13

Bias:             Tennessee by 18

Vegas:        Tennessee by 11      -630/+530

Ov/Un:        44½

Strategy:     Tennessee -1 in 10-point teaser, Tennessee +2 in 13-point teaser, Tennessee -630 as part of money line parlay     

This game would have been much more interesting if the Titans had won last week, as no 11-0 team has played an 0-11 team in an NFL game.

 

Detroit is banged up quite a bit, while Tennessee has minimal injury concerns.  I would tend to pick the Titans to rebound and blow the Lions off the field by three or more touchdowns, but some gut instinct tells me this game will be closer than expected.  I actually believe the Lions will keep this one within striking distance and actually have a chance at the big upset.  I am too shy to take the Lions at +11, and I don’t even like taking them at +21 and +24 in teasers.  I do think Tennessee has a 90-95% chance of winning, so I will go with the Titans in the teasers, as well as using them as part of a money line parlay.

 

Seattle (2-9-0) at Dallas (7-4-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST, Thursday November 27

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Chance of Showers, light wind, temperature in the upper 60’s

 

PiRate:         Dallas by 10

Mean:           Dallas by 10

Bias:             Dallas by 13

Vegas:        Dallas by 12       -710/+610 

Ov/Un:        46½

Strategy:     Dallas -2 in 10-point teaser, Dallas +1 in 13-point teaser, Seattle +22 in 10-point teaser, Seattle +25 in 13-point teaser, Dallas -710 as part of a money line parlay

Even with Felix Jones out for the year, Dallas has enough offensive weapons to outscore most of the opponents remaining on the schedule.  However, after this game, the final four opponents are all capable of beating them.  This is a must-win game for Dallas, while Seattle is just playing out the schedule. 

 

The Seahawks have been outscored 119-45 in their four road games on the East Coast.  This is their first road game in the Central Time Zone, but I expect the result to be similar. 

 

Dallas doesn’t blow opponents off the field, and Seattle has been losing by less than a dozen of late, so I like both ends in 10 and 13-point teasers.

 

Arizona (7-4-0) at Philadelphia (5-5-1)

Time:           8:15 PM EST, Thursday, November 27

TV:               NFL Network

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature falling from the upper to mid 30’s

 

PiRate:         Philadelphia by 3

Mean:           Philadelphia by 2

Bias:             Arizona by 1

Vegas:        Philadelphia by 3     -145/+125   

Ov/Un:        46½  

Strategy:     Arizona +13 in 10-point teaser, Arizona +16 in 13-point teaser, Over 33½ in 13-point teaser

How do you figure Philadelphia?  Are they the team that beats Pittsburgh 15-6?  Are they the team that loses to Dallas 41-37?  Or, are they the team that ties the then 1-8 Bengals and loses to the Ravens 36-7 in their most recent games?

 

Coach Andy Reid could be on his way out and quarterback Donovan McNabb may be joining him.  They better come up with their A-games this week.

 

Arizona could probably lose all their remaining games and still win their division at 7-9.  This isn’t a must-win game for the Cardinals, but don’t expect them to lie down and play dead in the city of brotherly love this week.

 

Kurt Warner should have a 300+ passing yard day this week, and Arizona should top 24 points.  It’s all up to the Eagle offense.  They could lay another egg and lose by two touchdowns; they could play a decent game and make it a close game either way; or, they could play like they know their backs are against the wall and win by two touchdowns.  The Cardinals have a decent chance or winning, a great chance of losing by a touchdown or less, and an outstanding chance of covering at double digit points.

 

Denver (6-5-0) at New York Jets (8-3-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Showers possible, light wind, temperature in low 40’s

 

PiRate:         Jets by 13

Mean:           Jets by 11

Bias:             Jets by 11

Vegas:        Jets by 7½  -325/+295       

Ov/Un:        47½

Strategy:     Jets +2½ in 10-point teaser, Jets +5½ in 13-point teaser, Jets -325, Under 60½ in 13-point teaser   

Denver should have the services of at least two capable running backs this week, but that isn’t going to solve the Broncos’ woes.  They are fortunate that 8-8 can win their division this year, because they may struggle to finish 8-8.  They could easily finish 1-4 to end up at 7-9 and become the first team with a losing record to make the playoffs in a non-strike-shortened season.

 

The Jets are playing as good right now as they have since Joe Namath led them to victory in Super Bowl III.  Dominating Tennessee in Nashville last week was no small task.  Add wins over New England and Buffalo, and this is a powerful team.  As of this writing, I rate the Jets as the top team in the AFC.

 

The weather could be the only intangible keeping this game close.  I see the Jets winning this one with relative ease, but a wet field could keep the margin down under the line. 

 

The New York defense has been hiding under the radar.  In the last seven games, they have surrendered less than 17 points per game (better than the Ravens and Titans over that time).

 

Miami (6-5-0) at St. Louis (2-9-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Miami by 14

Mean:           Miami by 8

Bias:             Miami by 10

Vegas:         Miami by 7½      -325/+275  

Ov/Un:        44

Strategy:     Miami +2½ in 10-point teaser, Miami +5½ in 13-point teaser, Miami -325, Under 54 in 10-point teaser, Under 57 in 13-point teaser

Miami definitely must win this game to stay in the playoff hunt, as it might be necessary to post a 10-6 record to earn an AFC Wildcard spot.  At 6-5, there isn’t much room for error, and this is the easiest game remaining on their schedule. 

 

St. Louis may have to go without Marc Bulger.  As I write this on Wednesday, he is listed as very doubtful.  The Rams are headed nowhere, so it would be foolish for Bulger to risk permanent brain damage to play in this game.  Thus, I am of the belief that an almost washed-up Trent Green will be under center for the Rams. 

 

If Steven Jackson can play, the Rams may have a chance to keep this game close.  However, Jackson will be rusty even if he is close to 100% by game time.  Don’t expect a 20-100 rushing day out of him; look for something more like 7-25.  Miami will win, but it may be closer than their fans will like.

 

New York Giants (10-1-0) at Washington (7-4-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Chance of rain, light wind, temperature around 40

 

PiRate:         Giants by 9

Mean:           Giants by 14

Bias:             Giants by 7

Vegas:        Giants by 3½     -190/+165  

Ov/Un:        42

Strategy:     Washington +13½ in 10-point teaser, Washington +16½ in 13-point teaser, Over 29 in 13-point teaser 

This is going to be one whale of a game.  These two opened the season in DC, and it was a real snoozer.  The Giants won 16-7, and it was assumed at that time by the so-called experts that Washington would have a tough season adjusting to new coach Jim Zorn’s offense.  Since then, the Redskins have averaged almost 20 points per game, but their defense has continued to keep them in every game.  The most they have surrendered in any game is 24 points (only Pittsburgh can say the same).

 

This is going to be a game where the outstanding running games try to plow through rather strong defenses.  Both New York’s Brandon Jacobs and Washington’s Clinton Portis enter this contest with injuries.  It is not sure whether either or both will miss this game.

 

I look for this game to stay close throughout the day, and I am going with the Redskins in the teasers.  Because there is a chance that the passing games may have to be used more than preferred, I am also teasing the Over.

 

New Orleans (6-5-0) at Tampa Bay (8-3-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Showers likely, moderate wind, temperature in the upper 70’s

 

PiRate:         Tampa Bay by 5

Mean:           Tampa Bay by 4

Bias:             Tampa Bay by 5

Vegas:        Tampa Bay by 3½    -190/+165  

Ov/Un:        47½  

Strategy:     Tampa Bay +6½ in 10-point teaser, Tampa Bay +9½ in 13-point teaser, Tampa Bay -190, Tampa Bay -3½, Over 34½ in 13-point teaser, Under 60½ in 13-point teaser

Let’s take a look at some statistical information concerning the Saints.  At home, they are 4-1 (5-1 if you count the game in London) and average 35 points to 17 for the opposition.  On the road, they are 1-4 and average 22.6 points to 29.4 for the opposition.  Their lone road win came at lowly Kansas City.

 

Tampa Bay has taken care of the other two NFC South teams to come to Raymond James Stadium.  They should make it a perfect three for three this week.  New Orleans will bounce some from their big Monday night win, and the Buccaneers must play back-to-back road games against Atlanta and Carolina after this game. 

 

I am going with the Bucs to win and cover the spread in this game.  I believe their defense will hold New Orleans under 24 points as well.    

 

 

Indianapolis (7-4-0) at Cleveland (4-7-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Snow showers possible, light wind, temperature around 35

 

PiRate:         Indianapolis by 3

Mean:          Indianapolis by 3

Bias:             Indianapolis by 5

Vegas:         Indianapolis by 5     -220/+180

Ov/Un:        45

Strategy:     Indianapolis +8 in 13-point teaser, Under 58 in 13-point teaser

Cleveland will have to go without Brady Quinn the rest of the year.  I am almost convinced that the Browns have quit on Derek Anderson.  I also believe that Coach Romeo Crennel and General Manager Phil Savage will be leaving at the end of this year. 

 

Indianapolis keeps winning by slim margins, but they keep winning.  I see no reason why they cannot run the table and finish 12-4. 

 

The weather could play a major part in many games this week, and this is one of those games where cold and wet conditions could make for slippery footballs and slippery turf.  That could neutralize some of Indy’s advantage, but I’ll take the Colts in the teasers.  I’m looking for the Colts to win 27-13.  The loss of center Jeff Saturday could cause Manning to rush a pass or two and the newfound running game to take a small step backward.

 

San Francisco (3-8-0) at Buffalo (6-5-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Snow showers likely, moderate wind, temperature in mid 30’s

 

PiRate:         Buffalo by 9

Mean:          Buffalo by 8

Bias:             Buffalo by 9

Vegas:         Buffalo by 7 -275/+255 

Ov/Un:        42½  

Strategy:     Buffalo -7, Buffalo -275, Buffalo +3 in 10-point teaser, Buffalo +6 in 13-point teaser

San Francisco has so much going against them in this game.  To start out, no West Coast team has won on the East Coast this year, and the 49ers’ three wins have come in the Pacific Time Zone.  San Francisco is not acclimated to playing in cold, snowy weather, and they are likely to get a dose of that this week.  The 49ers have nothing to play for, while Buffalo definitely must win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive.  Their final four games are all tough ones against teams competing for a playoff spot.

 

I’m looking for a Buffalo blowout by two touchdowns or more.  I won’t pick any totals in this game, because the weather could be a bigger factor than the personnel.

 

Baltimore (7-4-0) at Cincinnati (1-9-1)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Light rain possible, light wind, temperature around 40

 

PiRate:         Baltimore by 13

Mean:           Baltimore by 10

Bias:             Baltimore by 9

Vegas:        Baltimore by 7   -300/+250

Ov/Un:        36½

Strategy:     Baltimore +3 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +6 in 13-point teaser, Baltimore -300 in Money Line parlay, Over 23½ in 13-point teaser

Cincinnati is a mess in both of its professional sports, and the problem is in the front office in both.  Baltimore is a mess in baseball, but their football team is rather good.  The Ravens have a great chance of finishing 11-5 and challenging for the AFC North title.  Pittsburgh has a much tougher final month of games, and the Ravens could be tied for first after this week.

 

The Bengals failed to show up in Pittsburgh a week ago, and they showed no offense the week before against Philadelphia.  I don’t see them finding the solution this week against Ray Lewis and his merry men of mayhem.

 

The two big intangible factors in this game both favor Cincinnati.  The weather should make for a closer than expected game, and the Bengals get an extra three days to prepare for this one.  Thus, I believe the margin of victory will be slimmer than expected.  Even if the field is as big of a mess as the home team, I think there will be at least 25 total points scored.

 

Carolina (8-3-0) at Green Bay (5-6-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Light snow, moderate wind, temperature in the upper 20’s to near 30

 

PiRate:         Green Bay by 3

Mean:           Green Bay by 3

Bias:             Carolina by 1

Vegas:        Green Bay by 3½     -170/+150  

Ov/Un:        42

Strategy:     Under 55 in 13-point teaser, Green Bay -170

This is a tough game to diagnose.  Both teams lost games last week when their defenses suffered major letdowns, and their offenses or special teams contributed to the other side of the scoreboard. 

 

I see one excellent play in this game.  When both teams surrendered a great deal of points in their last games and it was also greater than they normally surrender, look for a regression to the mean in the next game.  Thus, I believe this game will be lower scoring than expected.  The possible inclement weather should aid us in that prediction.

 

This is a must-win game for Green Bay, as a loss will put them two games behind the Bears-Vikings winner.  The NFC North will not supply any wildcard teams this year, so at 5-7, the Packers can have the fork stuck in them.

 

Atlanta (7-4-0) at San Diego (4-7-0)

Time:           4:05 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, very windy (will affect passes and kicks), temperature in the mid to upper 70’s

 

PiRate:         Tossup

Mean:          San Diego by 1

Bias:            Atlanta by 1

Vegas:         San Diego by 5  -205/+175

Ov/Un:        49

Strategy:     Atlanta +15 in 10-point teaser, Atlanta +18 in 13-point teaser, Over 36 in 13-point teaser, Under 62 in 13-point teaser

This game will be more of a rivalry game than your typical NFC South versus AFC West game.  Michael Turner warmed the bench in San Diego while LaDainian Tomlinson got the accolades in Chargerville.  Now, Turner is the big star, while Tomlinson waddles in mediocrity for the Chargers.  Turner has rushed for 1,088 yards and 13 touchdowns, while Tomlinson has rushed for 770 yards and five touchdowns. 

 

Matt Ryan is now the odds-on choice to win the Rookie of the Year title.  You will be hard pressed to find another first year quarterback with ratings like his.

 

This game has become a must-win contest for both teams.  I would have thought that San Diego would have been eliminated with a loss last week, but now it looks like 8-8 will win the pathetic West Division. 

 

I don’t really love any of the selections in this game, but if I had to guess, I would say it will be lower scoring than expected and a true tossup game.

 

Pittsburgh (8-3-0) at New England (7-4-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain likely, light wind, temperature in the upper 30’s

 

PiRate:         Pittsburgh by 3

Mean:          Tossup

Bias:            Pittsburgh by 1

Vegas:         New England by 1    -120/+100   

Ov/Un:        40

Strategy:     New England +9 in 10-point teaser, New England +12 in 13-point teaser, New England -1, New England -120, Under 53 in 13-point teaser

Pittsburgh has big injury issues headed into this game, and the fact that I have to preview this game five days in advance makes it difficult to get a good grasp on making selections.  The choices I have above are made with the assumption that Willie Parker will either miss this game or have very little affect on the outcome due to his sore knee.

 

I like New England to win this game by a couple of points in a defensive struggle.  The rain should help keep the score down as well.

 

 

Kansas City (1-10-0) at Oakland (3-8-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in the mid to upper 60’s

 

PiRate:         Oakland by 5

Mean:           Oakland by 5

Bias:             Oakland by 4

Vegas:        Oakland by 3     -160/+140

Ov/Un:        41½

Strategy:     Oakland +7 in 10-point teaser, Oakland +10 in 13-point teaser, Oakland -160, Oakland -3, Over 28½ in 13-point teaser

In years past, this would have been the game of the week this week and possibly the game of the year.  Now it could be an exciting game just because these two teams are equally inept.

 

The Raiders defeated Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium earlier this year.  Oakland’s other two wins strangely came against two division leaders.  What’s even stranger is that if they win this game to improve to 4-8, they could possibly move into a second place tie in the AFC West and be just two games out of first place with four games to go.  They just might have an outside chance at getting to 7-9 and backing into the division title. 

 

That above fairy tale isn’t likely to happen, but I believe the silver and black will win again this week.

 

 

Chicago (6-5-0) at Minnesota (6-5-0)

Time:           8:15PM EST

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Dome

                    

PiRate:         Minnesota by 2

Mean:           Minnesota by 4

Bias:             Minnesota by 2

Vegas:        Minnesota by 3         -160/+150

Ov/Un:        42

Strategy:     Minnesota +7 in 10-point teaser, Minnesota +10 in 13-point teaser, Chicago +13 in 10-point teaser, Chicago +16 in 13-point teaser, Over 29 in 13-point teaser

To the winner of this game goes undisputed possession of first place in the NFC North and a possibility of having a two-game cushion over Green Bay.  This will be an interesting game between two decent teams albeit with exploitable liabilities.

 

I am going with the Over tease because it is a primetime, nationally-televised game.  I also believe it will be a close game, so I think we can play both sides on 10 and 13-point teasers.

 

Since Minnesota lost 48-41 at Chicago, they have definitely been playing better football than the Bears, but I am not about to use that as a definitive fact that Minnesota will win this game.  I still think it is close to a 50-50 tossup.  The game will probably turn on one big play.  Adrian Peterson and Devon Hester are both overdue for such antics.

 

 

Jacksonville (4-7-0) at Houston (4-7-0)

Time:           8:30PM EST Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature around 65

 

PiRate:         Houston by 1    

Mean:           Houston by 3

Bias:             Houston by 3

Vegas:        Houston by 3     -175/+155

Ov/Un:        48½

Strategy:     Houston +7 in 10-point teaser, Houston +10 in 13-point teaser, Houston -175, Over 35½ in 13-point teaser

Neither team has enjoyed the success many picked them to have this season.  Houston’s malaise has been more excusable because the team was displaced earlier in the season by a hurricane.

 

Jacksonville won the first meeting in overtime two months ago.  Since then, the Jags have gone 2-5, while Houston has gone 5-3. 

 

I’ll take the hotter team playing at home with a tiny axe to grind after losing a game they should have won in the first meeting.  I’ll tease the Over just because it is a Monday night game.

 

Yuck!!!

 

It had to happen.  My picking against the spread was just too highly accurate to continue week after week. Last week’s picks finished just 2-8-1, my worst week of the year.  What made it so annoying was that most of my picks were correct, but I played nothing but teasers.  You had those handful of games that were completely out of the norm that the NFL sees happening with regularity this time of the year.  Philadelphia completely laid an egg after the tie debacle of the previous week.  Denver showed why they are not in the same league with the other division leaders by getting blown out at home to the Raiders (they also lost to the 1-10 Chiefs).  Green Bay blew up on Monday night in just three plays.  Cleveland’s offense was totally lost once Brady Quinn proved that his injured finger was getting in his way. And so on and so on.  The bank account took a major hit; you can subtract $800 from the pushka, leaving me with $1,120.  That means the for the season profit stands at just $120 after all those winning weeks.  Can I get a bailout from the NFL Reserve?

 

For the season, my picks against the spread are now 85-56-7 (60.3%).  

 

I am going with a large amount of games this week, because I have noticed that when I make cuts in the games I like, I usually cut games I would have won if I had played them.

 

Here are my wagers for week 13 (all wagered to win $100 or $100 wagered if at + odds on a parlay or money line):

 

1. Tampa Bay -3½ vs. New Orleans

2. Buffalo -7 vs. San Francisco

3. New England -1 vs. Pittsburgh

4. Oakland -3 vs. Kansas City

5. New York Jets -325 vs. Denver

6. Miami -325 vs. St. Louis

7. Tampa Bay -190 vs. New Orleans

8. Buffalo -275 vs. San Francisco

9. Green Bay -170 vs. Carolina

10. New England -120 vs. Pittsburgh

11. Oakland -160 vs. Kansas City

 

12. Money Line Parlay (+130)

Tennessee over Detroit

Dallas over Seattle

NY Jets over Denver

Baltimore over Cincinnati

 

13. Money Line Parlay (+200)

Tennessee over Detroit

Dallas over Seattle

NY Jets over Denver

Baltimore over Cincinnati

Miami over St. Louis

 

14. 10-point teaser (TURKEY SPECIAL)

Tennessee -1 vs. Detroit

Dallas -2 vs. Seattle

Arizona +13 vs. Philadelphia

 

15. 10-point teaser

NY Jets +2½ vs. Denver

Miami +2½ vs. St. Louis

Tampa Bay +6½ vs. New Orleans

 

16. 10-point teaser

Buffalo +3 vs. San Francisco

Baltimore +3 vs. Cincinnati

New England +9 vs. Pittsburgh

 

17. 13-point teaser

Tennessee +2 vs. Detroit

Dallas +1 vs. Seattle

Arizona +16 vs. Philadelphia

NY Jets +5½ vs. Denver

 

18. 13-point teaser

Miami +5½ vs. St. Louis

Tampa Bay +9½ vs. New Orleans

Indianapolis +8 vs. Cleveland

Buffalo +6 vs. San Francisco

 

19. 13-point teaser

Baltimore +6 vs. Cincinnati

New England +12 vs. Pittsburgh

Oakland +10 vs. Kansas City

Miami & St. Louis Under 57

 

20. 13-point teaser

Baltimore & Cincinnati Over 23½

Washington & NY Giants Over 29

Tampa Bay & New Orleans Over 34½

Indianapolis & Cleveland Under 58

 

21. 13-point teaser

Atlanta & San Diego Over 36

Minnesota & Chicago Over 29

Houston & Jacksonville Over 35½

Arizona & Philadelphia Over 33½        

 

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

PiRate Ratings NFL Previews For Week 11: November 13-17, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 11

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

Current NFL Standings
NFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
New York		8	–	1	–	0	262	160	108.73	107.66	108.18	2
Washington		6	–	3	–	0	171	168	100.32	100.91	101.54	2
Philadelphia		5	–	4	–	0	251	180	108.50	105.53	104.70	2
Dallas		5	–	4	–	0	216	219	100.33	101.20	101.60	2
NFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Chicago		5	–	4	–	0	237	194	106.55	102.63	104.33	2
Minnesota		5	–	4	–	0	210	215	101.66	101.38	101.90	2
Green Bay		4	–	5	–	0	237	206	104.33	103.23	102.81	2
Detroit		0	–	9	–	0	151	277	87.31	89.90	85.94	3
NFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Carolina		7	–	2	–	0	191	133	106.84	104.19	105.90	2
Tampa Bay		6	–	3	–	0	200	147	106.08	103.46	105.01	2
Atlanta		6	–	3	–	0	211	174	104.11	102.06	104.33	2
New Orleans		4	–	5	–	0	236	229	100.49	100.32	99.06	2
NFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Arizona		6	–	3	–	0	263	208	103.71	102.93	104.42	3
Seattle		2	–	7	–	0	170	231	92.76	95.33	94.11	3
San Francisco		2	–	7	–	0	195	259	92.62	93.51	91.32	3
St. Louis		2	–	7	–	0	128	282	84.47	90.05	86.60	2
AFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
New England		6	–	3	–	0	188	160	99.65	102.71	104.17	2
New York		6	–	3	–	0	255	190	102.62	102.12	104.04	2
Miami		5	–	4	–	0	192	182	100.60	99.58	102.53	2
Buffalo		5	–	4	–	0	192	189	97.47	97.85	99.16	3
AFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Pittsburgh		6	–	3	–	0	198	140	107.83	105.45	105.75	2
Baltimore		6	–	3	–	0	212	150	106.45	105.14	105.41	3
Cleveland		3	–	6	–	0	172	194	98.52	98.51	96.50	2
Cincinnati		1	–	8	–	0	125	236	91.18	92.96	92.12	2
AFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Tennessee		9	–	0	–	0	220	117	111.42	107.94	108.77	2
Indianapolis		5	–	4	–	0	191	197	103.05	103.17	103.14	2
Jacksonville		4	–	5	–	0	198	186	100.01	100.75	99.05	3
Houston		3	–	6	–	0	209	254	96.02	97.67	95.84	3
AFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Denver		5	–	4	–	0	224	251	95.51	96.94	99.19	2
San Diego		4	–	5	–	0	244	218	101.06	100.83	101.68	2
Oakland		2	–	7	–	0	113	218	88.97	91.40	89.57	2
Kansas City		1	–	8	–	0	145	243	90.94	92.67	91.42	2

 

Note: due to a Thursday game this week, weather forecasts and odds are those as of Wednesday Noon EST

 

NFL Previews-Week 11

 

New York Jets (6-3) at New England (6-3)

Time:           8:15 EST Thursday 11/13

TV:               NFL Network

Forecast:     Rain Showers, moderate wind, temperature holding steady around 44 degrees

 

PiRate:         Jets by 1                  

Mean:           New England by 3

Bias:             New England by 2

Vegas:        New England by 3    -165/+155

Ov/Un:        40½  

Strategy:     New England +7 in 10-point teaser, New England +10 in 13-point teaser, Over 30½ in 10-point teaser, Over 27½ in 13-point teaser    

The weather could play an important role in this game, but I still believe the power of weeknight primetime television will have an even stronger effect.

 

To the winner goes undisputed first place in the toughest division in the AFC.  The Patriots’ defense dominated the Jets in their earlier meeting in New Jersey, but Brett Favre’s grasp of the Jet offense is much stronger now.  The Jets have scored 101 points in their last three games.

 

This is a tricky game, and the rivalry between the two coaches is important.  I like the home team on short preparation but not enough to take them outright.  Thus, I will utilize our trusty friend “The Teaser” and take the Pats and points.      

 

Denver (5-4) at Atlanta (6-3)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Atlanta by 11

Mean:           Atlanta by 7

Bias:             Atlanta by 7

Vegas:        Atlanta by 6       -265/+245

Ov/Un:        50½              

Strategy:     Over 40½ in 10-point teaser, Over 37½ in 13-point teaser 

Atlanta has a favorable schedule the rest of the way, and the Falcons should win at least 10 games.  Coach Mike Smith has to be one of the favorites for Coach of the Year.  His team has played tough every week, and his rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has enjoyed a first year that few star quarterbacks in the past have enjoyed.  Ryan is on pace for 3,400 passing yards and 20 TDs.

 

Denver’s Jay Cutler may have to pass the ball 45 times this week, as the Broncos are missing their top four runners.  There is a chance Selvin Young might be able to go, but it looks like fullback Peyton Hillis will have to carry the load.

 

I am looking for a rather high scoring game.  Atlanta has not surrendered more than 27 points in any game this year, and they may hold Denver to 21 to 27 points this week.  Atlanta will top 20 points as well, so I am teasing the totals.

 

Oakland (2-7) at Miami (5-4)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind with occasional strong gusts, temperature in low 70’s

 

PiRate:         Miami by 14      

Mean:           Miami by 10

Bias:             Miami by 15

Vegas:        Miami by 10½   -500/+400   

Ov/Un:        38

Strategy:     Miami -500 (as part of a money line parlay), Miami -½ in 10-point teaser, Miami +2½ in 13-point teaser

Teams traveling from the West Coast to the East Coast have yet to win a game this year, and I don’t expect that stat to change with this game.  Oakland has scored 35 total points in their last five games (since Tom Cable took over as interim coach).  JaMarcus Russell may be another Vince Young in the making without all the off-the-field problems.  He is questionable for this game.  Last week’s starter Andrew Walter is not 100% healthy this week, and he wasn’t effective when he was healthy.  Marques Tuiasosospo is the third quarterback; does it really matter which of these three play Sunday?  I don’t think so.  The Raiders are completely dysfunctional, and I’m thinking they will be lucky to score a touchdown this week.

 

Miami is the Atlanta of the AFC.  Coach Tony Sparano should be the AFC Coach of the Year, but Jeff Fisher might get that award if the Titans go 14-2 or better.  The Dolphins are considerably better defensively now than they were in September, and this week should be like child’s play for the stop side. 

 

When Miami has the ball, it may take a quarter to get untracked, but eventually they will score points.  Go with the fish in this one.  I like playing the Dolphins in a money line pick, but I love them as part of a money line parlay.

 

Baltimore (6-3) at New York Giants (8-1)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, moderate wind, temperature in upper 40’s

 

PiRate:         Giants by 4

Mean:           Giants by 5

Bias:             Giants by 5

Vegas:        Giants by 7        -290/+245

Ov/Un:        41½

Strategy:     Baltimore +17 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +20 in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in 13-point teaser 

Could this Baltimore team be as good as the one that won the Super Bowl eight years ago?  That 2000 Ravens team was only 5-4 after nine games, and their offense was averaging just 15.6 points per game.  True, their defense was yielding less than 11 points per game at that time.  This Ravens team is 6-3 with a potent offense averaging 33.5 points per game in the last four weeks.  The defense is not comparable to the champion defense of 2000, but Ray Lewis and company can still get the job done; Baltimore is giving up just 16.7 points per game.

 

Can the Ravens win on the road against the 8-1 defending Super Bowl Champs?  Yes, they can, but don’t risk losing money on that chance.  Feel confident that they will at the very least keep this game within two touchdowns. The Giants have to cover a touchdown and adding 10 or 13 points onto that gives them an almost impossible task.  New York could win this game by 10 points, and they could be extended until late in the fourth quarter with the game on the line.  Baltimore could win.  Playing the Ravens in the teasers wins in all three circumstances.

 

I like teasing the Over here as well.  Joe Flacco is giving Matt Ryan a good battle for rookie supremacy.  Having three quality running backs on hand takes the heat off him.  While I don’s see the Ravens striking for 30 points this week, I do see them topping 20.  So, I like teasing the Over as well.

 

Houston (3-6) at Indianapolis (5-4)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome likely to be closed, but if it is open: Mostly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in the low to mid 40’s.

 

PiRate:         Indianapolis by 9

Mean:           Indianapolis by 8

Bias:             Indianapolis by 9

Vegas:         Indianapolis by 7½ -340/+310  

Ov/Un:        50

Strategy:     Indianapolis -340 (as part of money line parlay), Indianapolis +2½ in 10-point teaser, Indianapolis +5½ in 13-point teaser, Over 40 in 10-point teaser, Over 37 in 13-point teaser    

The Colts find themselves one game behind the wildcard leaders with seven weeks to go, but it is my opinion that they will finish the season as strong as they have finished in prior years.  They could easily win 10 or 11 games, especially if Tennessee has nothing to play for on the final weekend.

 

Houston’s three week rise came to a crash in Minneapolis two weeks ago, and the Texans are headed nowhere this year.  They gave up 31 points to Peyton Manning and company in their first meeting, and number 18 could easily top that mark in this game.

 

I’m going with the Colts to win this game, but I do not like the 7½ point spread.  So, I will include Indianapolis in my money line parlays and my teasers.  The Over could be topped by the Colts’ offense alone when you tease it.

 

Chicago (5-4) at Green Bay (4-5)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Snow showers, strong wind, temperature in the mid 30’s

 

PiRate:         Tossup

Mean:          Green Bay by 3

Bias:            Tossup

Vegas:         Green Bay by 4½     -210/+180  

Ov/Un:        44½

Strategy:     Chicago +14½ in 10-point teaser, Chicago +17½ in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 13-point teaser

As I write this Wednesday afternoon, it is unsure whether Kyle Orton will be able to go for the Bears this week.  Orton makes a huge difference over Rex Grossman.  So, I cannot recommend any plays here until it is known who will be under center for Chicago.  The above strategy applies only if Orton will play.

 

On the other side of the field, Aaron Rodgers is still nursing a sore shoulder.  He cannot throw the deep ball with the same zip he could when healthy.

 

Philadelphia (5-4) at Cincinnati (1-8)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Clouds giving away to sun, moderate wind, temperature in the low to mid 40’s

 

PiRate:         Philadelphia by 15

Mean:           Philadelphia by 13

Bias:             Philadelphia by 11

Vegas:        Philadelphia by 9½         -385/+355  

Ov/Un:        41½

Strategy:     Cincinnati +19½ in 10-point teaser, Cincinnati +22½ in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in 13-point teaser  

Cincinnati had the week off, while the Eagles played the Giants in a crucial game.  There could be a small case made that the Bengals were in a great position to pull off a big upset this week.

 

Carson Palmer is still not able to play, and that will keep the Bengals from pulling out a second consecutive win.  However, Cincinnati has all the other breaks in their favor, and I think they will compete in this game.  The Eagles have too much talent to lose in what is certainly a must-win game for them.  I am looking at a 31-17 win for Philly, but I won’t give 9½ points to the home team in this game.

 

New Orleans (4-5) at Kansas City (1-8)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, moderate wind, temperature in the low to mid 50’s

 

PiRate:         New Orleans by 8

Mean:           New Orleans by 6

Bias:             New Orleans by 6

Vegas:        New Orleans by 5½        -240/+200  

Ov/Un:        49½

Strategy:     Kansas City +15½ in 10-point teaser, Kansas City +18½ in 13-point teaser, Over 36½ in 13-point teaser     

The Chiefs keep coming up with surprisingly good games when you least expect it from them.  Half of their losses could have gone the other way.  New Orleans qualifies as a team the Chiefs can scare the daylights out of before losing late.

 

Drew Brees is on pace to smash the all time passing yardage record for a single season; at the rate he is going, he will top 5,300 yards.  He is averaging more than 40 passing attempts per game, but he may get a small break this week.  Reggie Bush could return to action to help take the heat off the passing game, and the Chiefs are giving up more than 170 rushing yards per game at an average of more than five yards per attempt.

 

I am going with the Chiefs in a Teaser because I don’t believe New Orleans can hold them under 20 points.  The Saints may control the ball on the ground more this week, and it may lead them to winning 28-20 rather than 37-32.

 

Detroit (0-9) at Carolina (7-2)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in mid 50’s

 

PiRate:         Carolina by 22

Mean:          Carolina by 16

Bias:             Carolina by 22

Vegas:         Carolina by 14          -800/+650

Ov/Un:        39½

Strategy:     Carolina -800 (as part of money line parlay), Carolina -4 in 10-point teaser, Carolina -1 in 13-point teaser, Over 29½ in 10-point teaser, Over 26½ in 13-point teaser 

Detroit has Daunte Culpepper tossing the pigskin now, but I don’t expect much difference in the results of Lions’ games.  That said, Detroit has actually been much more competitive on the road than at home this season.  While I don’t see them scaring Carolina this week, I would not be surprised to see the Lions covering the two touchdown spread this week.

 

Jake Delhomme had a terrible game last week in Oakland, and you can expect him to rebound this week.  He won’t have to throw the ball all over the field, and that should help him improve his accuracy.  Look for him to take advantage of some mismatches when the Lions try to throw the kitchen sink at him.  The Carolina ground game should top their 119 yards per game rushing average by at least 30 if not 50 yards.

 

I think Carolina has a 95% chance of winning this game and a 55% chance of winning by more than two touchdowns.  So, I am selecting the Panthers as part of a money line parlay, but I won’t take them and give 14 points to a team that has lost its most recent road games by four, seven, and two points.

 

Minnesota (5-4) at Tampa Bay (6-3)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, moderate wind, temperature in mid to upper 60’s

 

PiRate:         Tampa Bay by 6

Mean:          Tampa Bay by 4

Bias:             Tampa Bay by 5

Vegas:         Tampa Bay by 3        -185/+165

Ov/Un:        38½

Strategy:     Tampa Bay -3, Tampa Bay -185, Tampa Bay +7 in 10-point teaser, Tampa Bay +10 in 13-point teaser, Over 28½ in 10-point teaser, Over 25½ in 13-point teaser    

The Vikings have a chance to take command in the NFC North if they can pull off the mild upset, and Green Bay beats Chicago.  If they lose, then they will be on the outside looking in.  The Vikings’ schedule is tricky the rest of the way, and I don’t believe they will win the division if they are 5-5 after this week.

 

Tampa Bay is a team that could be great but seems to always misfire in one area.  When their offense plays well, their defense seems to slip.  A great defensive performance seems to coincide with difficulty with their offense.  Therefore, almost all of their games are nip and tuck affairs that go to the final gun.

 

Things could be looking up for Tampa Bay starting this week.  Cadillac Williams has been activated, and he should play some this week.  If he can run the ball five times for 20 yards, it could allow Earnest Graham to rest just enough to keep him effective.

 

The weather is going to be ideal for football, and I look for the home team to move to 7-3.  I’m going with the Bucs giving three, on the money line, and in the teasers.  The ideal weather should lead to both teams topping 20 points and definitely topping 17, which is good enough to win at both 10 and 13 point teasers.

 

 

St. Louis (2-7) at San Francisco (2-7)

Time:           4:05PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the low 70’s

 

PiRate:         San Francisco by 11

Mean:           San Francisco by 6

Bias:             San Francisco by 8

Vegas:        San Francisco by 7          -265/+245

Ov/Un:        45

Strategy:     St. Louis +17 in 10-point teaser, St. Louis +20 in 13-point teaser, Under 58 in 13-point teaser   

Personally, I am fed up with the 49ers.  A head football coach once denigrated his team publicly by saying they didn’t know how to win; that applied aptly to this team.  Even facing the lowly Rams, I am hesitant to pick the 49ers to win this game.  Marc Bulger could torch the secondary and lead his team to a road win.  Should San Francisco figure out a way to win this game, I cannot see them doing so by double digits.  Therefore, I believe that taking those dreadful Rams in the teasers is one of the best selections of the week.  I have added the Under 58 teaser option only as a last choice to fill out a 13-point parlay.  My guess at the final score will be something like 24-21 to 28-21 with both teams having about a 50-50 chance of winning.  Having Steven Jackson back for the Rams is my insurance policy on this pick.

 

Arizona (6-3) at Seattle (2-7)

Time:           4:05PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Cloudy, light wind, temperature near 55

 

PiRate:         Arizona by 8

Mean:           Arizona by 5

Bias:             Arizona by 7

Vegas:        Arizona by 3      -140/+130       

Ov/Un:        47½

Strategy:     Seattle +13 in 10-point teaser, Seattle +16 in 13-point teaser

This is a serious trap game this week.  Seattle is primed to pull off a big shocker, and even if they fall short, I believe the Seahawks have a great chance at covering if you give them an extra 10 or 13 points.

 

Arizona had a Monday night game, and they will be traveling 1,500 miles north on short rest.  More importantly, it looks like Matt Hasselbeck and Deion Branch will both play this week, and that makes Seattle seven to 10 points better offensively.

 

Tennessee (9-0) at Jacksonville (4-5)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, moderate wind, temperature falling from 60 to the mid 50’s

 

PiRate:         Tennessee by 8

Mean:          Tennessee by 4

Bias:            Tennessee by 7

Vegas:         Tennessee by 3        -145/+125

Ov/Un:        39½

Strategy:     Jacksonville +13 in 10-point teaser, Jacksonville +16 in 13-point teaser, Over 29½ in 10-point teaser, Over 26½ in 13-point teaser

The first time these teams played, it was the opening week of the season.  Vince Young threw two interceptions, and the Titans appeared to be on their way to an 0-1 start.  Then, Young buried his head on the bench and almost did not go back in the game.  A couple plays later, he suffered a sprained knee, and Kerry Collins entered the game.  He quickly tossed a touchdown pass, and the Titans began their 9-0 start with a revived offense.

 

Jacksonville was supposed to have an offense that could not be stopped or contained.  Instead, the Jaguars have looked inept some weeks.  Losses to Cleveland and Cincinnati have ruined their chances for making the playoffs this season.  Beating Tennessee would be their big game of the year.  Tennessee has been their nemesis through the years, and an upset over their hated rival would make their season.

 

This game has been moved to 4:15 for national television, and I am expecting the motivated Jags to come out and make this game a hard-fought war for 60 minutes.  It could come down to a last play field goal attempt to decide it all.  Even if it goes to overtime, and the highest spread possible becomes six points, it won’t be enough to hurt us if we take Jacksonville in the teasers.  I am also teasing the totals here, because in the twenties, it isn’t asking that much for the teams to do.  A special teams or defensive big play could add an extra touchdown to the final score.

 

San Diego (4-5) at Pittsburgh (6-3)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Snow flurries and possible snow showers, moderate wind, temperature dropping through the 30’s

 

PiRate:         Pittsburgh by 9

Mean:           Pittsburgh by 7

Bias:             Pittsburgh by 6

Vegas:        Pittsburgh by 4        -225/+185

Ov/Un:        43

Strategy:     Pittsburgh -225, Pittsburgh +6 in 10-point teaser, Pittsburgh +9 in 13-point teaser

I almost picked the Steelers to cover the spread without the use of a teaser in this game, and I think if the snow is anything more than flurries, Pittsburgh will win by more than a touchdown.

 

San Diego is another one of those West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone, and like I wrote above, no West Coast team has won a game in the Eastern Time Zone this year.

 

I am of the belief that Norv Turner is an excellent offensive coordinator who does not get the most out of his talent as a head coach.  San Diego is a bigger disappointment this year than Cleveland or Dallas.  I really cannot see them winning this game, and at 4-6, Turner’s seat will begin to heat up.  Pittsburgh has lost their last two home games, and I look for that to change this week.  Call it a 20-14 home win in Steeltown.

 

Dallas (5-4) at Washington (6-3)

Time:           8:15PM EST

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature falling from the upper to lower 40’s

                    

PiRate:         Washington by 2

Mean:           Washington by 2

Bias:             Washington by 2

Vegas:        Tossup         -120/+110

Ov/Un:        43½

Strategy:     Dallas +10 in 10-point teaser, Dallas +13 in 13-point teaser, Over 33½ in 10-point teaser, Over 30½ in 13-point teaser 

This is a great rivalry game.  You can throw out the past when these two teams hook up.  The Redskins won in Texas Stadium, but that means little in their chances to go for the sweep.

 

What does mean a lot in deciding this week’s outcome is the status of some key personnel on both sides of the ball.  For Dallas, it revolves around Tony Romo and Felix Jones.  What kind of performance will they be able to display?  For Washington, it looks like Clinton Portis will not play, while Santana Moss plays at less than 100%.  Portis cannot be replaced, and the Cowboys will concentrate their efforts on stopping the Redskin passing attack.

 

I like Dallas’s chances of getting revenge in this game and throwing the NFC East into a three-way tie for second place at 6-4.  If the Cowboys lose, then it is highly unlikely that they will recover to make it in the playoffs as a wildcard team.  So, I am taking the visitors in the teasers.  I believe the final score will be somewhat similar to the final score the first time, only with the Cowboys winning. 

 

Cleveland (3-6) at Buffalo (5-4)

Time:           8:30PM EST Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Snow showers, moderate to strong winds, temperature holding steady in the low 30’s

 

PiRate:         Buffalo by 2

Mean:           Buffalo by 2

Bias:             Buffalo by 6

Vegas:        Buffalo 6     -225/+185

Ov/Un:        41½  

Strategy:     Buffalo -225, Cleveland +16 in 10-point teaser, Cleveland +19 in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in 13-point teaser 

What a great time for a Monday night game near the snow capital of the lower 48!  Buffalo should be a winter wonderland as ESPN comes on the air for this game.  Snowfall can be a good friend to those who play teasers.  It tends to even out the score when there is a possible mismatch, and it tends to lead to turnovers that produce points.  It doesn’t have to be bitter cold or a blizzard to affect a game.  Try fielding a high punt in the lights when snow is falling.  It isn’t easy. 

 

So, that is why I am actually teasing the Over and not the Under in this game.  Of course, with Monday night games comes higher scoring, as can be attested by this year’s average Monday night score of 34-20.

 

Another Nice Winning Week Against The Spreads

 

Last week’s picks finished 9-4-0 adding $400 more to the bank account.  For the season, my picks against the spread are now 74-42-6 (63.8%).  The account balance is $2,065.  For the year, my Return on investment is 16.9%.

 

The money line parlay I selected last week produced a winning wager, and I will try using that again this week.  Thanks to the ending off bye weeks for the season, we have 16 games per week for the remainder of the regular season.

 

Last week, I played a little defensively due to weather and injury issues.  This week will only see those factors become more important.

 

Here are my wagers for week 11 (all wagered to win $100 or $100 wagered if at + odds on a parlay or money line):

 

1. Tampa Bay -3 vs. Minnesota

2. Pittsburgh -4 vs. San Diego

3. Buffalo -225 vs. Cleveland

4. Tampa Bay -185 vs. Minnesota

5. Pittsburgh -225 vs. San Diego

 

6. Money Line Parlay (-130)

       A. Miami over Oakland

       B. Indianapolis over Houston

       C. Carolina over Detroit

 

7. Money Line Parlay (+220)

       A. Buffalo over Cleveland

       B. Tampa Bay over Minnesota

       C. Pittsburgh over San Diego

 

8. 10-point Teaser

       A. Miami -½ vs. Oakland

       B. Indianapolis +2½ vs. Houston

       C. Jacksonville +13 vs. Tennessee

 

9. 10-point Teaser

       A. Kansas City +15½ vs. New Orleans

       B. Tampa Bay +7 vs. Minnesota

       C. St. Louis +17 vs. San Francisco

 

10. 10-point Teaser

A. Pittsburgh +6 vs. San Diego

       B. Dallas +10 vs. Washington

       C. Cleveland & Buffalo Over 31½

 

11. 13-point Teaser

       A. Chicago +17½ vs. Green Bay

       B. Miami +2½ vs. Oakland

       C. Baltimore +20 vs. New York Giants

       D. Indianapolis +5½ vs. Houston

 

12. 13-point Teaser

       A. Jacksonville +16 vs. Tennessee

       B. Kansas City +18½ vs. New Orleans

       C. Carolina -1 vs. Detroit

       D. Tampa Bay +10 vs. Minnesota

 

13. 13-point Teaser

       A. St. Louis +20 vs. San Francisco

       B. Seattle +16 vs. Arizona

       C. Pittsburgh +9 vs. San Diego

       D. Dallas +13 vs. Washington

 

14. 13-point Teaser

       A. Cleveland & Buffalo Over 28½

       B. Denver & Atlanta Over 37½

       C. Miami & Oakland Over 25

       D. Jacksonville & Tennessee Over 26½

 

15. 13-point Teaser

       A. Denver & Atlanta Under 63½

       B. Carolina & Detroit Over 26½

       C. Tampa Bay & Minnesota Over 25½

       D. Dallas & Washington Over 30½           

     

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

PiRate Ratings Week 8 NFL Previews: October 26-27, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week Eight

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

 

Current NFL Standings and Ratings

NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA New York 5 – 1 – 0 170 101 106.25 103.64 106.38 2 Washington 5 – 2 – 0 140 128 103.71 102.63 102.67 2 Dallas 4 – 3 – 0 189 175 102.40 101.04 101.49 2 Philadelphia 3 – 3 – 0 167 123 109.63 103.82 105.29 2                           NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Chicago 4 – 3 – 0 196 150 108.85 121.83 107.54 2 Green Bay 4 – 3 – 0 194 159 103.74 102.42 103.83 2 Minnesota 3 – 4 – 0 154 167 100.81 99.70 99.10 2 Detroit 0 – 6 – 0 97 187 85.66 89.24 87.98 3                           NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Tampa Bay 5 – 2 – 0 161 107 109.14 105.23 106.68 2 Carolina 5 – 2 – 0 147 104 107.82 104.20 105.01 2 Atlanta 4 – 2 – 0 139 127 102.06 99.97 101.21 2 New Orleans 3 – 4 – 0 179 163 102.32 100.35 100.14 2                           NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Arizona 4 – 2 – 0 177 144 105.41 102.42 102.97 3 St. Louis 2 – 4 – 0 96 178 88.55 93.55 93.62 2 San Francisco 2 – 5 – 0 158 196 94.26 93.76 94.81 3 Seattle 1 – 5 – 0 110 171 90.36 93.22 92.72 3                           AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Buffalo 5 – 1 – 0 149 118 101.53 101.40 103.79 3 New England 4 – 2 – 0 130 116 98.35 101.18 101.91 2 New York 3 – 3 – 0 154 146 99.23 98.89 98.62 2 Miami 2 – 4 – 0 120 130 98.85 96.86 98.14 2                           AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Pittsburgh 5 – 1 – 0 141 89 108.55 105.95 107.90 2 Baltimore 3 – 3 – 0 105 100 102.40 100.85 100.25 3 Cleveland 2 – 4 – 0 92 106 99.63 98.88 98.10 2 Cincinnati 0 – 7 – 0 98 182 91.92 91.98 90.98 2                           AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Tennessee 6 – 0 – 0 149 66 109.91 107.60 107.30 2 Indianapolis 3 – 3 – 0 128 131 101.39 100.27 101.13 2 Jacksonville 3 – 3 – 0 124 128 100.99 100.83 102.37 3 Houston 2 – 4 – 0 140 179 94.24 96.66 96.58 3                           AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Denver 4 – 3 – 0 173 195 95.30 96.47 97.96 2 San Diego 3 – 4 – 0 192 162 102.88 101.48 102.87 2 Oakland 2 – 4 – 0 97 148 89.29 93.41 93.14 2 Kansas City 1 – 5 – 0 75 165 85.39 90.24 89.93 2

 

NFL Previews-Week Eight

 

San Diego (3-4) vs. New Orleans (3-4) (at London)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Light rain expected, light winds, temperature falling from the upper 50’s to the low 50’s

 

PiRate:         San Diego by 1 

Mean:           San Diego by 1

Bias:             San Diego by 3

Vegas:        San Diego by 3         -155/+145

Ov/Un:        46

Strategy:     Over 36 in 10-point teaser, Over 33 in 13-point teaser

Tally Ho!  These two teams will play in Wembley Stadium in London Sunday afternoon/evening London time.  I don’t like it when the usual tendencies for games have been altered.  Both teams have gotten out of their routines, and there isn’t enough prior history (just one year to be exact) to look back and discover patterns.  My advice is to leave this game alone, but the only thing close to safe is to look for a high scoring game with a lot of passing. 

 

LaDainian Tomlinson should be close to 100% for the Chargers, but I expect him to get fewer carries than normal in order to protect the injured toe. 

 

Drew Brees should have a 300-yard passing game, and for that reason I think these teams will combine to score more than 40 points.

 

Kansas City (1-5) at New York Jets (3-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Mostly sunny, moderate winds, temperature in upper 50’s

 

PiRate:         Jets by 16

Mean:           Jets by 11

Bias:             Jets by 11

Vegas:        Jets by 13          -610/+485

Ov/Un:        39

Strategy:     Under 52 in 13-point teaser

The Chiefs’ offense has gone into hibernation.  Until late in the fourth quarter last week, Kansas City had gone eight quarters without scoring a point.  Brodie Croyle and backup Damon Huard are now both done for the season.  Third stringer Tyler Thigpen is completing just 42% of his passes for 4.4 yards per attempt.  Now, with Larry Johnson inactive again for this game, what can the Chiefs do this week?  It’s not like their defense will bail them out.  They are the 31^st-rated stop troops in the NFL with a run defense that is on pace to give up more than 3,300 yards rushing.

 

The Jets had engine failure last week in Oakland, and I don’t see that problem occurring this week.  Brett Favre may not have to raise his arm too many times if Thomas Jones is his usual self.  He rushed for 159 yards last week and could easily equal or top that this week.

 

Because Coach Eric Mangini may decide to mimic Vince Lombardi and plan for his offense to grind out 80-yard drives that take 15 plays and half a quarter to score, the Jets may actually have difficulty covering the line.  I wouldn’t fool with a 13-point spread.  Instead, I am looking at a tease of the totals.  I cannot see Kansas City scoring 17 points in this game, and I cannot see the Jets topping 35.  The final score could be as low as 24-7 and as high as 35-14.  So, I like “Under 52” as part of a 13-point teaser.

 

Atlanta (4-2) at Philadelphia (3-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, moderate winds, temperature near 60

 

PiRate:         Philadelphia by 10  

Mean:           Philadelphia by 6

Bias:             Philadelphia by 6

Vegas:        Philadelphia by 9½         -380/+335

Ov/Un:        45

Strategy:     Philadelphia +½ in 10-point teaser, Philadelphia +3½ in 13-point teaser, Over 35 in 10-point teaser, Over 32 in 13-point teaser, Under 58 in 13-point teaser

This should be quite an entertaining game, and the Falcons believe they can pull off the upset and move on the top half of the playoff bubble.  The Eagles have all their offensive weapons healthy, and Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, and company should find success moving the ball in this game.

 

There is one big factor in this game that may not reveal itself until game time.  Falcon rookie sensation Sam Baker may not be able to play, and he is a key reason why quarterback Matt Ryan has been able to pass like he is a seasoned veteran.  In the one game where Baker was unable to go, the Falcons’ offense scored just nine points.

 

Without Baker, Atlanta cannot win this game.  With a healthy Baker, they can keep it close and have a shot at the upset.

 

Either way, I like the Eagles to win the game, so I’ll take Philly and points in the teasers.  Teasing the Totals could be iffy due to the possibility of the Falcons not being able to score without Baker in the lineup.  Without him, they could struggle to reach double digits.  If they score just 10 points, the Eagles would have to score 23 to satisfy a 13-point teaser and 26 to satisfy a 10-point teaser.  Only tease the Over if you already know Baker will start and be able to play at near 100% effectiveness.

 

I could see a 13-point tease of the Under working for us.  Under 58 would be very playable even if Baker starts.  Atlanta’s defense should hold the Eagles to 28 points or less, and their offense won’t score 30 points.

 

Buffalo (5-1) at Miami (2-4)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain likely, light winds, temperature near 80

 

PiRate:         Buffalo by 1

Mean:           Buffalo by 3

Bias:             Buffalo by 4

Vegas:        Buffalo by 1 -120/+100

Ov/Un:        42½

Strategy:     Miami +11 in 10-point teaser, Miami +14 in 13-point teaser, Buffalo +9 in 10-point teaser, Buffalo +12 in 13-point teaser

This is an intriguing game.  Buffalo’s 5-1 record is questionable when you consider that four of those wins came over teams buried deep in the standings.  The one lone quality win came over a mediocre Jacksonville team, and the one loss came on the road at Arizona.

 

Miami has that extraordinary win at New England when they sprung the single wing offense on an unsuspecting defense.  In the next game, a trick play pulled out the win over San Diego.  Baltimore stuffed the offense last week.  Buffalo’s defense is not in the Ravens’ class, but it is strong enough to take those pet plays away.

 

The Bills’ running game has been disappointing this year, while quarterback Trent Edwards has been a pleasant surprise.  Miami’s defense isn’t strong against the pass.  That worries me this week.  I don’t really like any of the plays in this game, as I see a huge deviation in possible outcomes.  I only list the teasers above, but I don’t heartily endorse any of them.  Miami could win by a touchdown, and the Bills could win by two touchdowns.  The score could be 28-24 or 14-10. 

 

St. Louis (2-4) at New England (4-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, considerable wind (enough to affect game), temperature in the mid 50’s

 

PiRate:         New England by 12

Mean:           New England by 10

Bias:             New England by 10

Vegas:         New England by 7    -315/+285

Ov/Un:        43

Strategy:     New England -7, New England -315, New England +3 in 10-point teaser, New England +6 in 13-point teaser, Under 56 in 13-point teaser

Break up the Rams!  Any team that can blow out the Cowboys by 20 points must be a force to be reckoned with.  Is Jim Haslett a super genius who can turn the weakest team in 20 years into the strongest team of 2008?  In back-to-back weeks, the Rams won at Washington and destroyed the team expected to waltz to the Super Bowl.

 

New England is the perfect embodiment of a Jekyll and Hyde team.  They lose big to the Dolphins and blow out the Broncos.  They hold the Jets’ offense to 10 points and give up 30 to the struggling Chargers.

 

I believe the weather will play an important role in this game.  The Rams are accustomed to playing indoors, and this game is going to be played with a stiff wind and cool temperatures.  This will be no big deal for the home team.

 

New England’s offense woke up last week against Denver, and I don’t see the Monday night effect hurting them this week.  They should be able to score 24 to 30 points against St. Louis even with a renewed defensive strength since the change of coaches.

 

I see the Pats winning by double digits and holding Marc Bulger and company to 17 points or less.  A score of 28-14 is quite possible, so I like a tease of the Under as well as the Patriots straight up and giving a touchdown.   New England would have to score more than 42 points to ruin a 13-point tease if the Rams score just two touchdowns.  Even a score of 35-21 wouldn’t beat us.  I would be shocked if the Pats don’t run the ball 35 or more times in this game, so total plays should be reduced.

 

Arizona (4-2) at Carolina (5-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in the mid 60’s

 

PiRate:         Carolina by 4

Mean:          Carolina by 4

Bias:             Carolina by 4

Vegas:        Carolina by 4     -200/+170

Ov/Un:        43½

Strategy:     Carolina -4, Carolina -200, Carolina +6 in 10-point teaser, Carolina +9 in 13-point teaser, Over 33½ in 10-point teaser, Over 30½ in 13-point teaser, Under 58½ in 13-point teaser

This game could be an NFC playoff preview.  Arizona is in complete control in the West, while Carolina is on pace to qualify as a wildcard or possible champion of the South Division.

 

The Cardinals have lost both times they have ventured into the Eastern Time Zone.  Their defense faltered both times.  This will be the toughest opponent of the three eastern teams they will have played.

 

Carolina may have the best home field advantage so far this season.  Their average score in Bank of America Stadium is 27-8, while their average road game score is 13-24.

 

Arizona had a week off, so that makes this one a bit tougher to call.  I still think the Panthers have a decided advantage in this contest.  Their pass defense should hold Kurt Warner about 75 yards below his average, and the Cardinals’ running game is not strong enough to take up the slack.  Jake Delhomme should top 200 passing yards and lead his offense to 24 or more points.  It adds up to a touchdown or more victory, so I like Carolina straight up and giving four points.

 

Oakland (2-4) at Baltimore (3-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature near 60

 

PiRate:         Baltimore by 16

Mean:           Baltimore by 10

Bias:             Baltimore by 10

Vegas:        Baltimore by 7          -325/+295

Ov/Un:        36

Strategy:     Baltimore -325, Baltimore +3 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +6 in 13-point teaser, Under 49 in 13-point teaser

Is their any possibility that JaMarcus Russell can solve the Ravens’ pass defense and avoid getting clobbered by their pass rush?  Will Darren McFadden be able to play this week?  Even if he can go, I doubt he will carry the ball more than eight times.  Ray Lewis and his band of mad men will make mincemeat out of Oakland’s offense.

 

The big question mark for Baltimore is who will line up at the wideout spots this week.  Yamon Figurs, Derrick Mason, and Demetrius Williams may all miss this game.  Running back Willis McGahee should play, but he won’t be at full strength. 

 

I expect a low scoring game, and Baltimore knows how to win when they score just 10-14 points.  I could see a score as low as 13-10 and as high as 21-17.  I don’t like the spread, but I think Baltimore has better than an 80% chance of winning.  Therefore, I like the money line option as well as getting the Ravens and points in the teasers.  Obviously, teasing the Under at 49 looks inviting as well.  I just cannot see a final score of 27-23 with both teams being hit with injuries on the offensive side.

 

Washington (5-2) at Detroit (0-6)

Time:           1:00PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Washington by 15

Mean:           Washington by 10

Bias:             Washington by 12

Vegas:        Washington by 7½         -315/+285

Ov/Un:        42

Strategy:     Detroit +7½, Detroit +17½ in 10-point teaser, Detroit +20½ in 13-point teaser, Over 29 in 13-point teaser

This is my pick as trap game of the week.  Detroit is bound to luck into at least one win this season, and this could be that week.  The Redskins have been quite fortunate to win close games every week.  They seem to play to the quality of the opposition.  Their offense has gone south the last two weeks against the Rams and Browns, two teams not noted for excellence in defense.

 

Detroit has nothing to lose except maybe the rights to Tim Tebow if they win one too many games this year.  With the loss of Roy Williams and Jon Kitna, the Lions changed their strategy last week against Houston.  Calvin Johnson was used more like Bob Hayes was used by the Cowboys in the late 1960’s.  Johnson ran deep routes, while Mike Furrey became the possession receiver.  It worked to some extent, and it opened some holes for the running game.  Dan Orlovsky’s passing line looked like one from the 1960’s AFL.

 

Washington’s offense lives or dies with the running of Clinton Portis.  Portis could rush the ball 25 times and pick up 125 yards in this game, and the Redskins will still have to score with their passing game to win this one.

 

The numbers add up to a huge Washington win, but I believe the numbers will give away some to intangibles this week.  Call it a gut instinct, but I think Detroit will keep this one close and have a chance to win it in the final period.

 

Tampa Bay (5-2) at Dallas (4-3)

Time:           1:00PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature near 80

 

PiRate:         Tampa Bay by 5

Mean:           Tampa Bay by 2

Bias:             Tampa Bay by 3

Vegas:        Dallas by 2½     -140/+120

Ov/Un:        40½

Strategy:     Tampa Bay +12½ in 10-point teaser, Tampa Bay +15½ in 13-point teaser, Over 27½ in 13-point teaser

The Dallas defense has fallen on rough times, and head coach Wade Phillips will be calling the defensive plays this week.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to lower the score of this game by complimenting his defensive play-calling with a time-consuming, conservative offensive game plan.

 

Tampa Bay is primed to take over the label of Super Bowl favorite this week.  A Buccaneer win would definitely place them at the top of the NFC pecking order, especially if the Giants lose at Pittsburgh.

 

Even if the Bucs cannot pull off the mild road upset, I see them keeping this game close.  Dallas was only able to beat Cincinnati by nine points at Texas Stadium, so there’s no reason to believe they can beat Tampa Bay by double digits without Tony Romo.

 

Tampa Bay is definitely one of the top three teams in the NFC and top six in the NFL.  I love the chance to get them and double digit points in any game at any location.  So, I’ll take Jon Gruden’s team and a boatload of points.  Also, I think both teams will at least reach 14 points, so I like teasing the Over as well.

 

Cleveland (2-4) at Jacksonville (3-3)

Time:           4:05 PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light winds, temperature in the low 70’s

 

PiRate:         Jacksonville by 4

Mean:           Jacksonville by 5

Bias:             Jacksonville by 7

Vegas:        Jacksonville by 7      -315/+285

Ov/Un:        42

Strategy:     Cleveland +17 in 10-point teaser, Cleveland +20 in 13-point teaser, Under 55 in 13-point teaser

Welcome to Staphgate.  The medical news coming out of Cleveland this week has overshadowed the team’s on-the-field performance.  It could foretell a Browns’ collapse, but it could also cause the team to rally and play a fantastic 60 minutes of football.

 

Jacksonville may be the most boring team in the league unless you are an old Ohio State football fan who likes three yards and a cloud of dust football.  Not having receivers Matt Jones and Mike Walker means the Jags will run the ball even more than the norm.  Look for backs Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor to combine for 30 attempts this week.

 

Cleveland has actually been playing decent football the last couple of weeks, and they could pull off another surprise or two in the coming weeks.  The one problem this week is that Jacksonville has enjoyed an extra week of preparation.  While I see the Jags winning this game, I am not sure they will be able to win big.  Their biggest win to date is a seven point victory over Denver.

 

I like, but don’t love, taking the Browns in teasers.  Because there could be more running than normal in this game, I also like teasing the Under at 55.  I could see this game ending in a 27-20 score at a maximum.

 

Cincinnati (0-7) at Houston (2-4)

Time:           4:05PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light winds, temperature in the low 80’s

 

 

PiRate:         Houston by 5

Mean:           Houston by 8

Bias:             Houston by 9

Vegas:        Houston by 9½        -380/+335

Ov/Un:        44½

Strategy:     Houston -380, Over 31½ in 13-point teaser

 

This game was supposed to be played the week Hurricane Ike struck the Lone Star State.  At the time, Cincinnati would have had a much better chance to win this game.  Now, Houston enters this contest on a two-game winning streak, while the Bengals have more than likely folded their hand for the season.  The Texans are almost double digit favorites.

 

The key stat for this game is the difference in the Bengals’ offense with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback instead of Carson Palmer.  With Fitzpatrick running the team, Cincinnati has averaged 12 points per game.  In Palmer’s four games, the Bengals averaged only 15.5 points per game, but they competed in those games against the likes of Baltimore, Tennessee, the Giants, and Dallas. 

 

This will actually be the first weaker than average defense Cincinnati will face this season.  I look for Fitzpatrick to lead the orange and black north of the 20-point barrier.  However, the Bengals are hurting on the other side of the ball, and they will give up considerably more than 20 points to an improving offense.  The Texans have average about 28 points per game the last four weeks against defenses that are mostly better than Cincinnati’s.

 

I could see this game being decided late, but I think Houston will make it three straight victories.  I don’t like the line, so I recommend the money line.  I am looking at a 28-21 score here, so I believe the totals can be teased safely.

 

New York Giants (5-1) at Pittsburgh (5-1)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate winds, temperature dropping from the mid 50’s to near 50

 

 

PiRate:         Pittsburgh by 4

Mean:           Pittsburgh by 4

Bias:             Pittsburgh by 4

Vegas:        Pittsburgh by 3        -140/+130

Ov/Un:        42

Strategy:     Pittsburgh -3, Pittsburgh -140, Under 55 in 13-point teaser

This is the game of the week and could be a preview of the Super Bowl.  I tend to think the Giants will not make it through the playoffs this year, but that is beyond the point this week.

 

In my opinion, the Steelers are capable of finishing 13-3 or even 14-2 and earning home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  Their defense will give up less than 250 points, and their offense will top 400 when the season ends.  Running back Willie Parker should return to the field this week.  Ben Roethlisberger is playing like an all-pro, and Hines Ward is playing with a chip on his shoulder.

 

The Giants have been relying on Brandon Jacobs to take enough heat off Eli Manning, and it has worked most weeks.  Jacobs will not run the ball for 80 yards in this game, and Manning will have to win it with a big aerial assault.  I don’t think he can pull it off.  Call it a 20-13 win for the black and gold.

 

Seattle (1-5) at San Francisco (2-5)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light winds, temperature in the mid to upper 70’s

                    

PiRate:         San Francisco by 7

Mean:           San Francisco by 4

Bias:             San Francisco by 5

Vegas:        San Francisco by 5   -230/+190

Ov/Un:        40½

Strategy:     San Francisco -230, San Francisco +5 in 10-point teaser, San Francisco +8 in 13-point teaser

Here, we have the initial second meeting of the season for divisional rivals.  The 49ers won the first meeting in Seattle, but things have changed since then.  Mike Nolan was shown the door last week after San Francisco lost at the Giants.  The interim coach is former Bears’ great Mike Singletary.  Offensive coordinator Mike Martz, who directed the Rams to a Super Bowl, was passed over.  Now, take into consideration that lame-duck Seahawks’  coach Mike Holmgren has had to dispel rumors all week that he will be the new 49er coach in 2009, and it makes this game much harder to diagnose. 

 

Which of these teams will be more ready to play?  I think San Francisco will play with more emotion in the early stages of the Singletary administration.  The players will fear him if they don’t bust their butts on every play.  Martz will still have full authority on the offensive play-calling, so I think the 49ers will be an improved team, at least for the next few weeks.  It adds up to a sweep in this year’s series, but I am not ready to call for a touchdown difference.  Therefore, I am going with the money line as well as taking the home team in teasers.

 

Indianapolis (3-3) at Tennessee (6-0)

Time:           8:30PM EDT Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate winds, temperature dropping from upper 40’s to lower 40’s

 

PiRate:         Tennessee by 11     

Mean:           Tennessee by 9

Bias:             Tennessee by 8

Vegas:        Tennessee by 4        -200/+170

Ov/Un:        41

Strategy:     None

Let’s look at some of the facts for this game.  It is the Monday night game, and we all know how unpredictable those games have proven to be through the years.  It is the top rivalry game in the AFC South, and the two teams play like it is the old Raiders and Chiefs series from the AFL days.  Tennessee has been running over run defenses like they have Walter Payton and Barry Sanders at running back.  Indianapolis has been a feast or famine team with their offense either looking terrific or terrible from week-to-week. 

 

The Colts could score 28 points and pick up 250-300 passing yards, but they could easily watch LenDale White and Chris Johnson combine for 250 or more rushing yards.  Indianapolis hasn’t been able to stop enemy rushing attacks this year.

 

I just don’t like any possible plays here this week.  I think Indianapolis could spoil the Titans’ perfect record if Peyton Manning plays like he did against Baltimore, but if he is not on his game and has a repeat performance of last week’s game in Green Bay, this game could be ugly.  Tennessee would like nothing more than to win by three touchdowns and make the rest of the nation respect them at 7-0. 

 

 

 

The Imaginary Bank Account Suffers First Losing Week

 

It had to happen.  I knew my luck would run out eventually, and last week I suffered my first losing week of the year.  The selections went 8-9 lowering my selections against the spread for the year to 52-28-3 (65%).  The account gave up $310, and that lowered the balance to $1,675.  For the year, my Return on investment is now 20.2%.

 

My straight selections continued to do well, as I was 3-1 on those picks.  The Teasers let me down, as there were too many odd games.  The Bears-Vikings game was a huge surprise to nearly everybody.  How about that Rams-Cowboys game-somebody forgot to tell St. Louis they are no longer the “Greatest Show on Turf.”

 

This week, I am torn between playing straight picks, where I have been quite successful this season and playing the teasers, where I have been successful over the course of several years.  It’s a tough call, but I am going to play more sides than teasers this week.  

 

Here are my wagers for week eight (all wagered to win $100):

 

 1. New England -7 vs. St. Louis

 2. New England -315 vs. St. Louis

 3. Carolina -4 vs. Arizona

 4. Carolina -200 vs. Arizona

 5. Baltimore -325 vs. Oakland

 6. Detroit +7½ vs. Washington

 7. Houston -380 vs. Cincinnati

 8. San Francisco -230 vs. Seattle

 9. Pittsburgh -3 vs. New York Giants

10. Pittsburgh -140 vs. New York Giants

 

11. 10-point teaser parlay

       A. San Diego & New Orleans Over 36

       B. Philadelphia & Atlanta Over 35

       C. Miami +11 vs. Buffalo

 

12. 10-point teaser parlay

       A. New England +3 vs. St. Louis

       B. Carolina +6 vs. Arizona

       C. Carolina & Arizona Over 33½

 

13. 10-point teaser parlay

       A. Detroit +17½ vs. Washington

       B. Tampa Bay +12½ vs. Dallas

       C. San Francisco +5 vs. Seattle

 

14. 13-point teaser parlay

       A. Jets & Kansas City Under 52

       B. Philadelphia +3½ vs. Atlanta

       C. Miami +14 vs. Buffalo

       D. New England +6 vs. St. Louis

 

15. 13-point teaser parlay

       A. Carolina +9 vs. Arizona

       B. Carolina & Arizona Over 30½

       C. Baltimore +6 vs. Oakland

       D. Baltimore & Oakland Under 49

 

16. 13-point teaser parlay

A. Detroit +20½ vs. Washington

B. Detroit & Washington Over 29

C. Tampa Bay +15½ vs. Dallas

D. Tampa Bay & Dallas Over 27½

 

17. 13-point teaser parlay

       A. Cleveland +20 vs. Jacksonville

       B. New York Giants & Pittsburgh Under 55

       C. San Francisco +8 vs. Seattle

       D. Houston & Cincinnati Over 31½  

     

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

PiRate Ratings Week Seven NFL Previews: October 19 & 20, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week Seven

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that a rating of 100 is average.

 

Current NFL Standings (listed alphabetically by divisions)
NFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Dallas		4	–	2	–	0	175	141	109.00	105.04	104.68	2
New York		4	–	1	–	0	141	84	101.74	103.65	104.75	2
Philadelphia		3	–	3	–	0	167	123	109.19	104.82	103.47	2
Washington		4	–	2	–	0	126	117	108.60	102.77	104.14	2
NFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Chicago		3	–	3	–	0	148	109	109.63	104.18	102.83	2
Detroit		0	–	5	–	0	76	159	84.05	89.24	88.13	3
Green Bay		3	–	3	–	0	160	145	104.53	100.84	101.14	2
Minnesota		3	–	3	–	0	113	119	106.16	100.20	101.34	2
NFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Atlanta		4	–	2	–	0	139	127	99.42	99.71	101.70	2
Carolina		4	–	2	–	0	117	97	104.05	102.40	103.16	2
New Orleans		3	–	3	–	0	172	133	110.04	103.29	105.74	2
Tampa Bay		4	–	2	–	0	141	97	112.13	106.03	105.50	2
NFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Arizona		4	–	2	–	0	177	144	105.29	103.24	105.38	3
St. Louis		1	–	4	–	0	62	164	76.28	89.46	88.42	2
San Francisco		2	–	4	–	0	141	167	90.14	93.84	95.67	3
Seattle		1	–	4	–	0	100	151	80.53	92.71	92.32	3
AFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Buffalo		4	–	1	–	0	126	104	94.82	99.48	100.73	3
Miami		2	–	3	–	0	107	103	102.46	99.80	99.32	2
New England		3	–	2	–	0	89	109	90.70	99.55	98.12	2
New York		3	–	2	–	0	141	130	103.58	101.22	103.43	2
AFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Baltimore		2	–	3	–	0	78	87	100.87	99.20	98.88	3
Cincinnati		0	–	6	–	0	88	144	95.15	95.12	95.73	2
Cleveland		2	–	3	–	0	81	92	100.23	100.22	98.96	2
Pittsburgh		4	–	1	–	0	103	79	106.66	104.77	105.35	2
AFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Houston		1	–	4	–	0	112	158	97.37	97.52	96.65	3
Indianapolis		3	–	2	–	0	114	97	107.12	104.22	104.74	2
Jacksonville		3	–	3	–	0	124	128	102.44	102.15	102.19	3
Tennessee		5	–	0	–	0	115	56	112.04	107.20	108.72	2
AFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Denver		4	–	2	–	0	166	154	101.37	99.54	100.85	2
Kansas City		1	–	4	–	0	65	131	83.12	90.67	91.23	2
Oakland		1	–	4	–	0	81	135	85.43	93.10	92.18	2
San Diego		3	–	3	–	0	178	139	105.92	104.82	105.22	2

 

NFL Previews-Week Six

 

San Diego (3-3) at Buffalo (4-1)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Mostly sunny, light winds, temperature in the mid 50’s

 

PiRate:         San Diego by 8 

Mean:           San Diego by 2

Bias:             San Diego by 1

Vegas:        Buffalo by 1 -115/+115

Ov/Un:        44

Strategy:     Over 34 in 10-point teaser, Over 31 in 13-point teaser, Buffalo +9 in 10-point teaser, Buffalo +12 in 13-point teaser, Buffalo -1

 

Buffalo had a week off after the embarrassing loss at Arizona.  San Diego won a big primetime game over New England Sunday night and must now travel 2,700 miles across three time zones.

 

I am not sold on the Bills even at 4-1, and I think the Chargers have the talent to overcome the obstacles in this game.  I’m going with the Bills in the teasers because I still think they have a little better than 50% chance of winning this one.  Even if San Diego wins, I don’t see it being by more than a touchdown. 

 

Pittsburgh (4-1) at Cincinnati (0-6)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light or no wind, temperature rising from the low to upper 60’s

 

PiRate:         Pittsburgh by 10     

Mean:           Pittsburgh by 8

Bias:             Pittsburgh by 8

Vegas:        Pittsburgh by 9½     -420/+380

Ov/Un:        35½

Strategy:     Cincinnati +9½, Cincinnati +19½ in 10-point teaser, Cincinnati +22½ in 13-point teaser, Over 25½ in 10-point teaser, Over 22½ in 13-point teaser

 

It doesn’t take a Harvard graduate to realize the Bengals are much weaker without quarterback Carson Palmer running their offense, but it may take more than a Harvard grad to beat the Steelers.

 

On paper, Pittsburgh should win this game with relative ease.  At Paul Brown Stadium, the Bengals make this game much closer than it should be.  Even with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, Cincinnati has enough talent to keep this one close.  Pittsburgh is the type of team that when they win road games, it is by less than a touchdown.

 

Cincinnati’s players may be ready to throw in the towel on the season, but it won’t happen this week against the perennial bullies of their division.  Expect a stellar performance from the Bengals, and thus this will not be an easy Steeler win.  I might consider the Bengals straight up on this one, but I prefer the striped helmets in the teasers.  I like teasing the Over here, as 23 or 26 points is not asking much.

 

Minnesota (3-3) at Chicago (3-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Clouds increasing during the day, moderate winds, temperature in the mid to upper 60’s

 

PiRate:         Chicago by 5     

Mean:           Chicago by 6

Bias:             Chicago by 3

Vegas:        Chicago by 3      -175/+155

Ov/Un:        37½

Strategy:     Chicago +7 in 10-point teaser, Chicago +10 in 13-point teaser, Under 47½ in 10-point teaser, Under 50½ in 13-point teaser 

 

This one could be the game of the week.  To the winner could go sole possession of first place in the division.  Both teams have quite exploitable weaknesses, but the Vikings seem to have less of them.  I expect this game to develop into an old fashioned guts and glory affair right out of the 1960’s.  I expect the two teams to shorten this game with around 120 plays from scrimmage.  I could see both teams failing to gain 300 total yards, and I could see the winner scoring no more than 17 points. 

 

Chicago has played just two home games, and those came against two teams better than the Vikings.  On the other hand, Minnesota is a better team today than the one that took the field against Green Bay in week one. 

 

If your opinion that a low scoring game will take place, it goes without saying that you would like your chances that the spread will be less than a touchdown.  Thus, getting the Bears at home and getting a touchdown or even 10 points becomes a favorable situation.  Additionally, if you think a game could end with a 17-13 score, then teasing the Under when that total moves to 47½ or 50½ points is something you would jump on.

 

Tennessee (5-0) at Kansas City (1-4)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Mostly sunny and quite windy, with a temperature in the upper 60’s to near 70

 

PiRate:         Tennessee by 27     

Mean:           Tennessee by 15

Bias:             Tennessee by 15

Vegas:        Tennessee by 9        -330/+300

Ov/Un:        35

Strategy:     Kansas City +19 in 10-point teaser, Kansas City +22 in 10-point teaser, Over 25 in 10-point teaser, Over 22 in 13-point teaser, Kansas City +9

 

Both teams had the week off, and still the Titans have issues at wide receiver.  Kansas City has issues at running back, where Larry Johnson has been suspended.  However, Brodie Croyle should be ready to go.

 

Kansas City’s lone win was over a then undefeated Denver team.  They have a fair chance of getting upset number two this week.  The Titans are a much better home team than they are a road team.  Their two road trips have been to Cincinnati and Baltimore.  The Bengals offered little competition, whereas the Ravens outplayed Tennessee.  The Chiefs are weaker than Baltimore but stronger than the Bengals were when the Titans beat them.

 

I give Kansas City a 35% chance of pulling off the upset, and a 75% chance of losing by a touchdown or less.

 

This is one game where I would consider the underdog straight up, but I really like the Chiefs in the teasers.  I just cannot imagine a scenario where the Titans could win this game by 20 points, especially with Justin McCareins and Justin Gage ailing.  Tennessee will try to run the ball 60% of the time, and the Chiefs will be ready.  Kansas City will pass the ball more than normal, and this gives them a fighting chance this week.  Rarely if ever would I consider keying one game in multiple teasers, but this might be one week where I would do it with this game. 

 

New Orleans (3-3) at Carolina (4-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light winds, temperature in the mid 60’s

 

PiRate:         New Orleans by 4    

Mean:           Carolina by 1

Bias:             New Orleans by 1

Vegas:         Carolina by 3            -155/+135

Ov/Un:        44

Strategy:     Over 34 in 10-point teaser, Over 31 in 13-point teaser, New Orleans +13 in 10-point teaser, New Orleans +16 in 13-point teaser

 

This game provides me with what I think is a strong play.  These two teams know how to score points.  I think the totals line is a little low because the Saints held Oakland to a field goal last week while the Panthers laid an egg in Tampa. 

 

New Orleans has consistently scored between 24 and 34 points this year, while Carolina has averaged 26 points per game at home.  The Panthers rebounded from their first loss at Minnesota with a great game against Atlanta.  I expect another turnaround effort this week.  I’m looking for the winner of this game to score 28 to 35 points and prevail by a touchdown or less.

 

I like taking the Saints in the teasers because if they score their usual 24-34 points in this one, look how much Carolina will have to score to beat us.

 

San Francisco (2-4) at New York Giants (4-1)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light winds, temperature in the mid to upper 50’s

 

PiRate:         Giants by 14     

Mean:           Giants by 12

Bias:             Giants by 11

Vegas:        Giants by 10½          -430/+390

Ov/Un:        46½

Strategy:     Giants -½ in 10-point teaser, Giants +2½ in 13-point teaser, Under 56½ in 10-point teaser, Under 59½ in 13-point teaser, Giants -430   

 

Just how much did last week’s blown game to the Eagles take out of the 49ers?  We may know the answer this week.  San Francisco was on its way to a 3-3 record to stay in the playoff hunt before mistake after mistake allowed the Eagles to score 23 unanswered points in the fourth quarter.  Blowing a nine point league in less than a full quarter is inexcusable when you are at home playing a team that has traveled across the country and is missing one of its top offensive weapons.

 

Coach Mike Nolan is now on thin ice, and it doesn’t bode well that he must take his team to the East Coast to play a mad bunch of Giants.  The defending Super Bowl champs were embarrassed on national TV Monday night, and they will be ready to play this week.

 

I don’t like taking the Giants and having to give 10½ points, as this could be one of those games where New York chooses to grind it out on the ground and consume the clock much like Jacksonville.  They could dominate for 60 minutes and still win by a score of 21-12.  So, give me the teaser plays in this one.  San Francisco would have to win outright to beat me.  I usually don’t like playing a money line where a loss could cripple the chances of a winning week overall, but the Giants should probably be listed at -600.   

 

Baltimore (2-3) at Miami (2-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers, considerable winds, temperature in the low 80’s

 

PiRate:         Miami by 4 

Mean:           Miami by 3

Bias:             Miami by 2

Vegas:        Miami by 3         -140/+120

Ov/Un:        36½

Strategy:     Baltimore +13 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +16 in 13-point teaser, Over 26½ in 10-point teaser, Over 23½ in 13-point teaser 

 

This game is a playoff eliminator.  The winner moves to 3-3 to stay alive in the playoff chase, while the loser more than likely is headed to a 6-10 record or worse.  Baltimore has dropped three in a row after winning their first two, while Miami has been playing like a team with a chance to go 8-8.

 

I don’t really like any of the possibilities in this game, as I could see a variety of scenarios playing out this week.  Just one or two plays early in this game could change the outcome completely.

 

How will the Dolphins’ single wing package perform against a Ravens’ defense that could stop it completely?  Can Dan Henning come up with the right strategy to exploit Ray Lewis in company?

 

Baltimore has done absolutely nothing on offense the past two weeks, and the Dolphins have already held much better offenses under 14 points.

 

With so many tossup games this week, you might see a pattern in my selections.  Go with the underdog in a teaser, since it allows you to in essence get a few extra points in your favor without having to rely on your pick pulling off a mild upset.

 

Teasing the Over is still a slight risk in this one, as I included it only as a last pick to fill out a parlay.  One big play on special teams or one big turnover could allow the total to hit 30 points.

 

Dallas (4-2) at St. Louis (1-4)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Dallas by 31      

Mean:           Dallas by 14

Bias:             Dallas by 14

Vegas:        Dallas by 7         (no money line)

Ov/Un:        44

Strategy:     Leave this one alone, unless you know for sure the status of Tony Romo.  If he doesn’t play, then teasing the Under at 54 & 57 looks good  

 

Tony Romo is actually going to try to play with a broken finger on his throwing hand.  I would leave this game alone.  It could be a ruse by the Cowboys to try to take the heat off Brad Johnson.  The only logical play here is to tease the Under, because Dallas could beat the Rams with Marion Barber at quarterback.  If Romo plays, I don’t expect Dallas to throw the ball more than 20-25 times.  If Johnson has to go, I expect a similar strategy.

 

Marc Bulger didn’t have much luck against Dallas last year, but I expect him to fare a little better this season.  It could allow the Rams to keep it close for a long time, but seven points is too tricky to play either way.  My advice is to forget this game; there are better options available.

 

Detroit (0-5) at Houston (1-4)

Time:           4:05PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Mostly sunny, light winds, temperature around 80 (all 2008 games at Reliant Stadium are now outdoors)

 

PiRate:         Houston by 16  

Mean:           Houston by 8

Bias:             Houston by 12

Vegas:        Houston by 9½        -400/+360

Ov/Un:        46½

Strategy:     Houston +½ in 10-point teaser, Houston +3½ in 13-point teaser, Detroit +19½ in 10-point teaser, Detroit +22½ in 13-point teaser, Over 36½ in 10-point teaser, Over 33½ in 13-point teaser  

 

Houston finally won a game last week, while Detroit was on the verge of getting a victory.  Now, the Texans are favored by almost double digits.  A lot of that has to do with the Lions sending Roy Williams packing to Dallas. 

 

The question in this game is how much the loss of Williams will affect the ability to get the ball to Calvin Johnson.  Johnson won’t be open as often, as defenses begin to key on him.

 

Detroit’s offense didn’t set the woods on fire the last three times out with Williams on the roster.  They scored 30 points.  Houston has surrendered 28 or more points in every game so far.  That streak will come to an end this week, and I expect the Texans to win their second consecutive game.  The Lions are going to struggle without Williams, and it is hard to find a winnable game on their remaining schedule.

 

Indianapolis (3-2) at Green Bay (3-3)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Mostly cloudy, moderate winds, temperature dropping from low 60’s to the mid 50’s

 

PiRate:         Indianapolis by 1    

Mean:           Indianapolis by 3

Bias:             Indianapolis by 2

Vegas:        Indianapolis by 2     -130/+110

Ov/Un:        47

Strategy:     Indianapolis +8 in 10-point teaser, Indianapolis +11 in 13-point teaser, Over 37 in 10-point teaser, Over 34 in 13-point teaser

 

If the Bears-Vikings game isn’t the best one this week, then it’s probably this game.  This one could be the most exciting match as well. 

 

Straight away, I like the possibility that this could be a game where the losing team scores 24 or more points.  The weather could be much worse this time of the year at Lambeau Field. Instead, it will be ideal for Brown County, Wisconsin, in mid-October.  Just close your eyes and smell in all the brats being steamed in beer and then grilled to perfection.  Then, watch two quarterbacks put on an aerial display as good as the annual one in Oshkosh.

 

This is one game where I’d prefer to take the favorite in a teaser play.  The Colts are the most improved team in the league since the second week of the season.  Peyton Manning is almost back to his old self, and he will pick apart the Packers’ defense.  The Colts should top 30 points for the third consecutive week.

 

Aaron Rodgers will need a 300 yard effort to give the Packers a chance to win this game.  If they are to pull off the mild upset, I think they will have to score 35 points. 

 

New York Jets (3-2) at Oakland (1-4)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light winds, temperature in the low 70’s

 

 

PiRate:         Jets by 16  

Mean:           Jets by 6

Bias:             Jets by 9

Vegas:        Jets by 3     -175/+155

Ov/Un:        41

Strategy:     Oakland +13 in 10-point teaser, Oakland +16 in 10-point teaser, Over 31 in 10-point teaser, Over 28 in 13-point teaser

 

This is a trap game.  The Jets are better than average, while Oakland stinks.  However, the Raiders can be counted on to come up with a decent game every other week or so.  They failed to show up last week in New Orleans, but they will perform much better this week.

 

The Jets are making their second of four trips to the West Coast this week.  Their first visit to the Pacific Ocean ended in a 19-point drowning in San Diego.  I expect a much better effort this time out, but I cannot see them winning big.  This could be a 28-20 game.  King Brett may connect for three touchdown passes, but he could also throw a couple of critical picks that allows Oakland to pick up some easy points. 

 

Cleveland (2-3) at Washington (4-2)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light winds, temperature dropping from around 60 to the low 50’s

 

 

PiRate:         Washington by 10

Mean:           Washington by 5

Bias:             Washington by 5

Vegas:        Washington by 7½ -300/+270

Ov/Un:        41½

Strategy:     Cleveland +17½  in 10-point teaser, Cleveland +20½  in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in 13-point teaser

 

How do you gauge a team that won at Dallas and lost at home to St. Louis?  How do you gauge a team that looked dead for three weeks, won a sloppy game against a winless team, and then destroyed the undefeated defending Super Bowl Champions on Monday night?

 

This game is definitely tricky.  It should be expected for the Browns to bounce some after the emotional win over the Giants.  Having to play on Monday night could put more rubber into that bounce. 

 

The big question is how will the Redskins respond after losing at home to the worst team in the NFL?

 

The logical play here is to force Washington to win big to ruin the pick.  The Redskins have yet to win a game by a touchdown. 

 

The Browns could bounce big time and still lose by less than 17 points.  Their offense should put up enough points to allow this game to go well over the 30 total. 

 

 

Seattle (1-4) at Tampa Bay (4-2)

Time:           8:15PM EDT

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Clear to partly cloudy, moderate winds, temperature dropping from the upper 70’s to the lower 70’s

                    

PiRate:         Tampa Bay by 34    

Mean:           Tampa Bay by 15

Bias:             Tampa Bay by 15

Vegas:        Tampa Bay by 10½         -445/+405

Ov/Un:        38

Strategy:     Tampa Bay -½ in 10-point teaser, Tampa Bay +2½ in 13-point teaser, Over 28 in 10-point teaser, Over 25 in 13-point teaser, Tampa Bay -445 

 

There is a big question with this game.  Who will start at quarterback for the Seahawks?  Matt Hasselbeck is definitely out.  Seneca Wallace is injured yet could still play, but Charlie Frye may have to go if Wallace isn’t ready Sunday.  Frye attempted 23 passes last week against the Packers’ mediocre secondary, and he averaged a measly 3.6 yards per attempt with two interceptions.  Two sacks brought his production down under 2.6 yards per pass play.

 

Tampa Bay won big over Carolina last week, and the Bucs could be ready to go on a run to a possible 12-win season.  This game should be close to a cinch for the home team.  Jeff Garcia played competently if not brilliantly last week subbing for Brian Griese.  I’m looking for a 28-10 Tampa Bay victory, but I’ll play it safe and take the Bucs in the teasers.

 

Denver (4-2) at New England (3-2)

Time:           8:30PM EDT Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Mostly clear, moderate winds, temperature falling from mid 50’s to mid 40’s

 

PiRate:         Denver by 9

Mean:           New England by 2

Bias:             Denver by 1

Vegas:        New England by 3           -160/+150

Ov/Un:        48

Strategy:     Under 58 in 10-point teaser, Under 61 in 13-point teaser

 

These two teams are among the most inconsistent in the league.  The one thing I think I can predict with some rationality is that Denver will continue to struggle to score points.  This is their first trip east this year.  The Pats should play better this week after playing two consecutive road games on the West Coast. 

 

I’m teasing the Under in this one.  The odds makers always inflate the totals for Monday night games, so I feel like I’m getting a couple of bonus points here.  My guess is New England will win by a score of something like 20-16.

 

The Imaginary Bank Account Makes Another Nice Deposit

 

It’s now six winning weeks out of six!  Not only did I have a sixth consecutive winning week, I was 10-3 to bring my record for the year against the spread to 44-19-3 (69.8%).  I was close to finishing 11-2 until the 49ers committed more mistakes in five minutes than they used to commit in an entire season during their glory years.  It’s starting to look bleak for Coach Nolan.

 

The profitable weekend brought me $640, bringing the bank account for the year up to $1,985, just 15 bucks shy of doubling the initial $1,000 investment in six weeks.  For the season, my return on investment is 30.1%.

 

Once again, I did rather well with the straight wagers, getting four out of five correct.  The new 13-point teaser parlays finished 3-1, while the tried and true 10-point teaser parlays finished 3-1. 

 

This week, I am having quite a bit of difficulty coming up with straight wagers, as the schedule is not favorable for playing them that way.  Not counting the Dallas-St. Louis game and the Tony Romo situation, I see seven games that could easily go either way not only against the spread but in which team will win outright.  Even the game that looks like a blowout (Titans-Chiefs) may be a huge trap.  Tennessee could easily lose this one.  Cincinnati is a lively upset threat this week as well. 

 

As a result, I will be relying heavily on teaser parlays this week, trying to pick games that give me what looks like ridiculous odds in my favor.  Sure, one or two of these games will be ridiculous and ruin some of the parlays, but I am banking on the law of averages.  Hopefully, it will lead to another profitable weekend. 

 

Here are my wagers for week seven (all wagered to win $100):

 

1. Buffalo -1 vs. San Diego

 

2. Cincinnati +9½ vs. Pittsburgh

 

3. New York Giants -430 vs. San Francisco

 

4. Tampa Bay -445 vs. Seattle

 

5. 10-point teaser

       A. Buffalo +9 vs. San Diego

       B. Cincinnati +19½ vs. Pittsburgh

       C. Chicago & Minnesota Under 47½ 

 

6. 10-point teaser

       A. Chicago +7 vs. Minnesota

       B. Kansas City +19 vs. Tennessee

       C. New Orleans +13 vs. Carolina

 

7. 10-point teaser

       A. Kansas City & Tennessee Over 25

       B. New Orleans & Carolina Over 34

       C. Detroit & Houston Over 36½

 

8. 10-point teaser

       A. New York Giants -½ vs. San Francisco

       B. Baltimore +13 vs. Miami

       C. Houston +½ vs. Detroit

  

9. 10-point teaser

       A. Indianapolis +8 vs. Green Bay

       B. Cleveland +17½ vs. Washington

       C. Tampa Bay -½ vs. Seattle

 

10. 10-point teaser

       A. Indianapolis & Green Bay Over 37

       B. Oakland & New York Jets Over 31

       C. Cleveland & Washington Over 31½

 

11. 10-point teaser

       A. Buffalo & San Diego Over 34

       B. Tampa Bay & Seattle Over 28

       C. Denver & New England Under 58

 

12. 13-point teaser

       A. Buffalo & San Diego Over 31

       B. Kansas City +22 vs. Tennessee

       C. Indianapolis & Green Bay Over 34

       D. Tampa Bay & Seattle Over 25

 

13. 13-point teaser

       A. Buffalo +12 vs. San Diego

       B. New Orleans & Carolina Over 31

       C. Baltimore & Miami Over 23½

       D. Oakland +16 vs. New York Jets

 

14. 13-point teaser

       A. Cincinnati +22½ vs. Pittsburgh

       B. New Orleans +16 vs. Carolina

       C. Houston +3½ vs. Detroit

       D. Oakland & New York Jets Over 28

 

15. 13-point teaser

       A. Cincinnati & Pittsburgh Over 22½

       B. Kansas City & Tennessee Over 22

       C. Detroit +22½ vs. Houston

       D. Cleveland +20½ vs. Washington

   

16. 13-point teaser

       A. Chicago +10 vs. Minnesota

       B. New York Giants +2½ vs. San Francisco

       C. Detroit & Houston Over 33½

       D. Cleveland & Washington Over 28½

  

17. 13-point teaser

       A. Chicago & Minnesota Under 50½

       B. Baltimore +16 vs. Miami

       C. Indianapolis +11 vs. Green Bay

       D. Tampa Bay +2½ vs. Seattle

 

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

PiRate Ratings Week 6 NFL Previews: October 12-13, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week Six

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

Current NFL Standings
(listed alphabetically by division)
NFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Dallas		4	–	1	–	0	151	111	109.97	106.14	108.09	2
New York		4	–	0	–	0	127	49	110.99	107.61	109.19	2
Philadelphia		2	–	3	–	0	127	97	107.44	104.55	104.27	2
Washington		4	–	1	–	0	109	98	110.22	106.43	108.20	2
NFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Chicago		3	–	2	–	0	128	87	108.76	105.32	105.29	2
Detroit		0	–	4	–	0	66	147	80.19	87.10	83.93	3
Green Bay		2	–	3	–	0	133	128	101.21	100.01	99.71	2
Minnesota		2	–	3	–	0	101	109	103.20	101.93	100.50	2
NFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Atlanta		3	–	2	–	0	117	107	99.39	98.31	99.61	2
Carolina		4	–	1	–	0	114	70	110.14	105.07	107.31	2
New Orleans		2	–	3	–	0	138	130	105.33	101.24	100.78	2
Tampa Bay		3	–	2	–	0	114	94	107.69	103.31	103.47	2
NFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Arizona		3	–	2	–	0	147	120	106.98	102.26	103.12	3
St. Louis		0	–	4	–	0	43	147	73.25	85.65	81.05	2
San Francisco		2	–	3	–	0	115	127	92.32	94.27	95.59	3
Seattle		1	–	3	–	0	83	124	82.87	93.40	92.92	3
AFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Buffalo		4	–	1	–	0	126	104	95.52	99.24	102.62	3
Miami		2	–	2	–	0	79	74	105.18	100.62	102.43	2
New England		3	–	1	–	0	79	79	97.34	101.44	102.83	2
New York		2	–	2	–	0	115	116	103.98	100.74	102.22	2
AFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Baltimore		2	–	2	–	0	75	56	105.99	102.08	103.48	3
Cincinnati		0	–	5	–	0	74	118	97.21	96.25	92.76	2
Cleveland		1	–	3	–	0	46	78	93.05	96.47	93.17	2
Pittsburgh		4	–	1	–	0	103	79	103.82	104.39	105.91	2
AFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Houston		0	–	4	–	0	83	130	90.59	96.30	92.65	3
Indianapolis		2	–	2	–	0	83	94	97.57	100.80	101.54	2
Jacksonville		2	–	3	–	0	100	111	97.36	100.41	100.82	3
Tennessee		5	–	0	–	0	115	56	111.01	107.17	108.51	2
AFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Denver		4	–	1	–	0	149	130	103.97	100.89	104.04	2
Kansas City		1	–	4	–	0	65	131	87.57	91.16	89.82	2
Oakland		1	–	3	–	0	78	101	92.80	95.83	93.00	2
San Diego		2	–	3	–	0	148	129	107.07	103.50	103.98	2

 

 

NFL Previews-Week Six

 

Oakland (1-3) at New Orleans (2-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         New Orleans by 15 

Mean:           New Orleans by 7

Bias:             New Orleans by 10

Vegas:        New Orleans by 7     -285/+245  

Ov/Un:        47

Strategy:     Over 37 in 10-point teaser, Over 34 in 13-point teaser

 

Oakland has a new coach and is coming off a bye week, whereas New Orleans played Monday night.  How will the Raiders respond?  Also, how much can Darren McFadden play?  These are major issues, and I wouldn’t begin to pick a side in this one, even in teasers.

 

The Saints’ defense cannot be counted on to stop enemy offenses for 60 minutes.  Given an extra week to tweak their offense, I expect the Raiders to score at least 17 points and as much as 25 points this week.  New Orleans is in a must-win situation this week, as a 2-4 start probably puts them too far behind in their division to dig themselves out.  Therefore, I tend to believe New Orleans will find a way to win, but I don’t feel confident enough to pick them at -285 in a money line selection.  I am confident that Drew Brees can pass for 300 yards and direct the offense to 20 or more points, so teasing the Over is how to play this game.

 

Cincinnati (0-5) at New York Jets (2-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in the upper 60’s

 

PiRate:         Jets by 9    

Mean:           Jets by 6

Bias:             Jets by 11

Vegas:        Jets by 5½         -240/+200   

Ov/Un:        44½  

Strategy:     Jets -240, Jets +4 ½ in 10-point teaser, Jets +7½ in 13-point teaser

 

The Jets had a bye last week, while Cincinnati had to play a rough game at Dallas.  The 0-5 Bengals must play on the road again this week with a wounded quarterback.  Even if Carson Palmer plays, he won’t be close to 100% effective.  The Jets’ defense ranks in the bottom half of the league after giving up 83 points in their previous two contests, but I expect a vast improvement following a week off.  Brett Favre should be at peak performance as well, so I like the Jets to win outright.  5½ points is tricky, so I’ll go the money line route in this one. 

 

Only one thing worries me this week: there are still four NFL teams looking for their first win of the season in week six.  How many times in the past have four teams continued to remain winless six weeks into the season?  The odds are heavily in favor of one or more of those winless teams winning this week. So, the 13-point teaser gives the Jets more than a TD at home, which I fell is quite safe.

 

Chicago (3-2) at Atlanta (3-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Chicago by 7     

Mean:           Chicago by 5

Bias:             Chicago by 4

Vegas:        Chicago by 3      -145/+135  

Ov/Un:        43½  

Strategy:     Atlanta +3, Atlanta +13 in 10-point teaser, Atlanta +16 in 13-point teaser

 

Atlanta is the top surprise in the NFC five weeks into the season.  New coach Mike Smith has the Falcons in the playoff hunt and a win in this game might be enough to guarantee the dirty birds a winning season.  The schedule is not that difficult, and at 4-2, it is easy to see 9-7 or even better for this team.

 

Chicago finds itself alone in first in the old black and blue division.  The Bears are not that far from being 5-0, losing by three at Carolina and in overtime by three to Tampa Bay. 

 

Teams that play consecutive road games and win the first one usually bounce some in the second road game and perform worse than they did in the previous game.  Many teams play much better at home after playing consecutive road games.  Both of these factors are in play this week, so I like the home team to cover in a close game.  As a double-digit ‘dog in teaser plays, Atlanta looks safe.  Chicago destroyed a weak Detroit team last week, and they will face a much tougher opponent this week.  The Falcons will rough them up, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Matt Ryan have his first 200 yard passing game.  The Bears might be able to shut down Michael Turner, or at least limit his effectiveness, but that will be at the expense of giving Ryan more holes to find in the intermediate zones. 

 

Detroit (0-4) at Minnesota (2-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Minnesota by 25      

Mean:           Minnesota by 17

Bias:             Minnesota by 19

Vegas:        Minnesota by 13       -600/+450  

Ov/Un:        45½  

Strategy:     Minnesota -3 in 10-point teaser, Minnesota Pk in 13-point teaser, Over 32½ in 13-point teaser

 

This game scares me a little.  Minnesota enjoyed a big win Monday night in New Orleans, while Detroit was reduced to fodder at home against the Bears Sunday.  The Lions have nothing to lose from here on out, as they are basically competing with the Rams for the rights to Tim Tebow, Beanie Wells, or whoever is deemed the top draft choice in 2009.

 

Minnesota is just one game out of first place in the NFC North, where 9-7 could easily win the division title.  Obviously, a loss to the lowly Lions would kill their chances.  The Vikings have an easier schedule left than the Packers, and a win Sunday could possible propel them into a first place tie.

 

Normally, you could expect Minnesota to come out flat in this situation and lay an egg.  If Detroit was as good as less than mediocre Cleveland, I would pick the Lions as an upset possibility this week.  However, with Jon Kitna likely out for this game and Calvin Johnson probably playing at less than 100% strength, what weapons can Detroit use effectively? 

 

Adrian Peterson is going to think he is facing the Baylor defense when he played at Oklahoma.  Detroit cannot stop average backs, so expect Peterson to have a memorable day.

 

St. Louis (0-4) at Washington (4-1)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature around 70

 

PiRate:         Washington by 39   

Mean:           Washington by 23

Bias:             Washington by 29

Vegas:        Washington by 13½       -625/+450   

Ov/Un:        44

Strategy:     St. Louis +23½ in 10-point teaser, St. Louis +26½ in 13-point teaser, Washington -3½ in 10-point teaser, Washington -½ in 13-point teaser, Over 34 in 10-point teaser, Over 31 in 13-point teaser   

 

Could this be a mini-trap game?  The Rams find themselves in the same situation as the Raiders this week.  They are coming off a bye with a new head coach to play a road game against a team that was extended for 60 minutes the previous game.  There are two differences between the former L.A. teams. The Raiders at least can play a little defense, whereas the Rams play matador defense.  However, the Rams still have Marc Bulger who is capable of throwing for 300 yards and leading his team on a scoring binge.  That’s a remote possibility at best, but the Redskins have to cover by two touchdowns against this possibility.

 

I won’t go with either team at + or -13½.  However, both sides look playable in a 10 or 13-point teaser.  The Redskins have yet to blow out an opponent, so asking them to cover at 23½ or 26½ points is a big stretch.  Likewise, at -3½ or -½, the home team looks great.  Teasing the totals looks promising this week.  The Rams have given up 31 or more points in every game this year, and even if they improve by 14 points off their 37 points per game allowed average, they should score at least 14 themselves this week.    

 

Carolina (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Thunderstorms possible in the 2^nd half, light wind, temperature in mid 80’s and likely dropping if rain occurs

 

PiRate:         Pick      

Mean:           Pick

Bias:             Carolina by 2

Vegas:        Tampa Bay by 1       -120/+110  

Ov/Un:        36½  

Strategy:     Tampa Bay -1, Tampa Bay +9 in 10-point teaser, Tampa Bay +12 in 13-point teaser, Over 26½ in 10-point teaser, Over 23½ in 13-point teaser 

 

This game is one where you need to check back Friday evening to peruse the injury report.  Will Brian Griese be able to play Sunday?  If not, then what difference will it make for Jeff Garcia to start?  Garcia has played in two games this year.  The Bucs lost both.  Griese has started and finished three games this year; the Bucs won all three.  The stats of the two QBs are about the same, but Tampa Bay just doesn’t score as many points when Garcia runs the offense.

 

Carolina in week six is a good touchdown or more improved from the team that opened the season.  The Panthers could take a commanding lead in the NFC South with a win and a Falcons’ loss this week.

 

Therefore, I recommend that you use the above sides’ strategies only if you are missing one piece of a three or four team parlay.  I do have more confidence in the totals’ teasers.

 

Miami (2-2) at Houston (0-4)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly Cloudy, light wind, temperature in the mid 80’s

 

PiRate:         Miami by 12      

Mean:           Miami by 1

Bias:             Miami by 7

Vegas:        Houston by 3     -150/+130  

Ov/Un:        45

Strategy:     Houston +7 in 10-point teaser, Under 55 in 10-point teaser (but not so hot on these two)

 

Like the previous game, I am not so hot on this game.  Houston is still a team in flux following the hurricane.  The Texans have the talent to beat Miami by 10 points, but some of the players may be about ready to fold on this season.

 

Miami is a team on the rise.  The Dolphins have just enough talent and a nice gimmick offense to sneak out of town with their third consecutive victory.  I think they have a 60% chance of winning this game outright, but I believe if they win, the Texans have a 75% chance of losing by less than a touchdown.

 

I think Miami will try to control the clock and make this game a lower than expected outcome.  Again, I warn only to use the strategies above if you need a third or fourth part of a parlay.

 

Baltimore (2-2) at Indianapolis (2-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Baltimore by 6  

Mean:           Indianapolis by 1

Bias:             Pick

Vegas:        Indianapolis by 3½        -190/+160   

Ov/Un:        38½  

Strategy:     Indianapolis -3½, Indianapolis, +6½ in 10-point teaser, Indianapolis +9½ in 13-point teaser, Over 25½ in 13-point teaser   

 

This game looks like the top play of the week.  Baltimore just played two emotional games against two physical teams and lost both games.  The come into this game with numerous injuries to key personnel (Willis McGahee, Ray Lewis, Fabian Washington, Derrick Mason).  Even if they all play, they won’t be nearly as effective as they normally would play.

 

Peyton Manning now has four games under his belt following his knee surgery.  He missed all of the preseason, so this game is almost like his normal opening game.  His stats have slowly improved as the season has progressed, and the Colts’ offense has gotten a little better each week.  If Washington cannot go for the Ravens, Manning will pick apart the Baltimore secondary.  As long as he gets protection, Indianapolis should move the ball more effectively than any Raven opponent to date.

 

I foresee a Colt double digit win this week.  Their real liability is their run defense, but Baltimore may have to go without McGahee or at the best with him playing on an injured ankle. Le’Ron McClain isn’t going to rush for 100 yards and exploit that liability.

 

I’m going with the Colts to win this one by a score similar to 24-13.  So, my strategies for this game include using the Colts straight up and in teasers, as well as teasing the Over with the belief that Indianapolis will continue to improve offensively and be opportunistic defensively.  

 

Jacksonville (2-3) at Denver (4-1)

Time:           4:05PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Thunderstorms possible, considerable winds, temperature in the mid 50’s

 

PiRate:         Denver by 9

Mean:           Denver by 2

Bias:             Denver by 5

Vegas:        Denver by 3 -175/+155  

Ov/Un:        48½  

Strategy:     Jacksonville +13 in 10-point teaser, Jacksonville +16 in 13-point teaser, Under 58½ in 10-point teaser, Under 61½ in 13-point teaser

 

The Broncos’ offense has taken a step back in recent weeks after looking more like the 2007 Patriots at the beginning of the season.  Not having Selvin Young, Ryan Torain, Tony Scheffler, and maybe Eddie Royal on hand this week isn’t going to make things any better.  Denver will have to pass, pass, pass to a group of less experienced players, and Jacksonville will be able to adjust their blitz packages to take advantage of this fact.

 

The Jaguars will continue to try to control the clock with the short passing game and power running in short yardage situations.  It’s hard to be perfect for long drives all day long on an opponent’s field, so they must play better defense if they plan on winning this game. 

 

This game isn’t far from being a tossup given the injuries on the Broncos’ side of the field.  If you take the underdog in a teaser, you get a nice amount of points.  Denver might have a 55-60% chance of winning this game, but they have maybe a 10-15% chance of winning by more than two touchdowns.  I’ll take the 13 and 16 points in the teasers.  Because I believe Jacksonville will try to shorten the game, I like teasing the Under as well.  If the forecasted rain comes, it could help us a little here.

 

Green Bay (2-3) at Seattle (1-3)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in upper 50’s

 

PiRate:         Green Bay by 15      

Mean:           Green Bay by 4

Bias:             Green Bay by 4

Vegas:        Seattle by 2       -120/+110  

Ov/Un:        45½  

Strategy:     Green Bay +12 in 10-point teaser, Green Bay +15 in 13-point teaser, Over 35½ in 10-point teaser, Over 32½ in 13-point teaser 

 

We have two teams going in the same direction in this game, but unfortunately it is the wrong direction.  Seattle was the odds-on favorite to win the NFC West, but injuries have made them a mere shell of their former selves.  They never really play well on the East Coast, but they also lost at home to San Francisco.

 

Green Bay has dropped three games in a row, and the Packer defense is not getting the job done.  They cannot give up 28 points per game and think about the playoffs much less having a winning season.  Even Brett Favre would be struggling to win games if he was directing the Packers’ offense and having to score 30 points every week to win.

 

I believe the loser of this game will be out of the playoff hunt, so it becomes a must-win game for both teams.  The players on both sides probably realize this, so I expect a great game that goes down to the wire.  As I previously stated, I like teasing the underdog when I perceive a possible tossup game.  It’s like getting extra points.  Since I don’t have much faith in these two defenses, it’s understood that I would like teasing the Over as well.

 

Philadelphia (2-3) at San Francisco (2-3)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, considerable wind, temperature in mid to upper 60’s

 

PiRate:         Philadelphia by 12  

Mean:           Philadelphia by 7

Bias:             Philadelphia by 6

Vegas:        Philadelphia by 5     -230/+190  

Ov/Un:        42½  

Strategy:     San Francisco +5, San Francisco +15 in 10-point teaser, San Francisco +18 in 13-point teaser, Over 32½ in 10-point teaser, Over 29½ in 13-point teaser 

 

Philadelphia’s 2008 plight can be summed up by reading the book A Tale of Two Cities.  When Brian Westbrook has been healthy, it has been the best of times in the city of brotherly love.  When Westbrook has been injured, it has been the worst of times in Philly.

 

Westbrook is out for this game, so I expect something close to the worst of times for the Eagles.  Add to this trouble that Donovan McNabb is far from healthy and Wide out Reggie Brown will miss the game.  Former star Kevin Curtis should finally get on the field for the first time this year, but he won’t be ready to have a 100-yard receiving day right out of the box.  I just don’t see the Eagles topping 20 points in this game.  Against a weaker than average 49er defense, they will score more than 14, but 17 points may be about their limit unless the defense and/or special teams contribute to the scoring load.

 

San Francisco is one of the hardest teams to figure out.  J.T. O’Sullivan has proven he is a legitimate starter in the NFL and is running the Mike Martz offense almost as competently as Marc Bulger and Kurt Warner ran it.  Frank Gore is keeping defenses honest.  The 49ers just cannot stop anybody.  Even a wounded Eagles’ offense should pick up 300-350 yards and the aforementioned 17 points.

 

I am going with the 49ers to win this game for a couple of reasons.  First, this is a must-win game for them.  At 2-4, they will be in too much of a hole to make up in a division where only the winner is going to qualify for a playoff spot.  Second, Philadelphia is 10 points weaker without Westbrook than they would be if he was healthy.  Third, Philadelphia is making a cross-country trip a week after being extended to the final gun against Washington, while San Francisco is at home for the second week in a row.  Finally, a loss in this game will start the ball rolling for the dismissal of Coach Mike Nolan. 

 

I see San Francisco playing their best game of the year this week and pulling off the upset.  So, I like them straight up at +5½ as well as in teasers.  I look for them to win 24-17, so I like teasing the Over as well.  If you can find a money line that has SF +220 or higher, then it might be worth a little bit of a gamble, but I won’t pursue that at +190.

 

Dallas (4-1) at Arizona (3-2)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, considerable wind, temperature in mid to upper 70’s

 

PiRate:         Pick      

Mean:           Dallas by 1

Bias:             Dallas by 2

Vegas:        Dallas by 5         -220/+180  

Ov/Un:        50

Strategy:     Arizona +15 in 10-point teaser, Arizona +18 in 13-point teaser

 

Dallas has played a wee bit below their predicted expectations the last two weeks.  Arizona has lived up to their billing as a force to be reckoned with this year.  The Cardinals have the lead in the NFC West, and it looks like 9-7 could get them into the playoffs as division winner.

 

The Cardinals’ two home wins look more impressive now that Miami is playing so much better.  They look strong enough to beat just about anybody at University of Phoenix Stadium.

 

Dallas has the potential to go on the road and win by 14 or more points, but if they continue to play like they have the best two weeks, they could also find themselves in trouble in this game.

 

I am going with the percentages and progressions here in this game.  Give me the home team and more than two touchdowns, and I will be happy, especially when I get Kurt Warner and more than two touchdowns.

 

New England (3-1) at San Diego (2-3)

Time:           8:15PM EDT

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Sunny, then clear after dark, considerable wind, temperature falling from mid 60’s to upper 50’s

                    

 

PiRate:         San Diego by 12      

Mean:           San Diego by 4

Bias:             San Diego by 3

Vegas:        San Diego by 5         -220/+200  

Ov/Un:        45

Strategy:     None

 

I do not like the two prime time games this week.  This game is between two very inconsistent teams.  Which New England team will we see this week?  Will it be the team that struggled to edge the hapless Chiefs and saw the Dolphins blow them off their home field, or will it be the team that held Brett Favre and the Jets to 10 points and won all the way across the country last week?

 

San Diego keeps finding ways to lose games, but they also scored like they were a basketball team in their prior prime time game.

 

I’ll leave this one alone.  It is too risky.

 

New York Giants (4-0) at Cleveland (1-3)

Time:           8:30PM EDT Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature falling through the 60’s

 

PiRate:         Giants by 16     

Mean:           Giants by 9

Bias:             Giants by 14

Vegas:        Giants by 7½     -325/+265   

Ov/Un:        43½  

Strategy:     None

 

Sooner or later, Cleveland is going to break through with a big game on offense.  They had a week off to prepare for this game, and they have too many weapons on the attack side not to bust loose eventually.  I watched these two teams play in the preseason, and the Browns gave the Giants 23 points in gifts yet still lost by three.  Obviously, the preseason is not an accurate gauge, but I believe the Browns are itching to show the defending Super Bowl champions their best effort.

 

The one thing that worries me is the health of Kellen Winslow.  He may not be able to go Monday night, but even if he misses the game, I can still see Cleveland having their best game of the year.

 

The Giants can still win this game by 10 points even if the Browns play their best game of the year.  Their defense is starting to look like one of those great stop troops of yesteryear.  You know the type I am talking about; I’m referring to those defenses that have been immortalized with a fancy nickname like the Purple People Eaters, the Fearsome Foursome, the Steel Curtain, the Doomsday Defense, the No-name Defense, etc.  They are on pace to give up less than 200 points (that equates to less than 175 points when comparing to the teams from the 14-game schedule era).

 

Two things worry me this week about the Giants.  First, even with a tough taskmaster like Tom Coughlin on the sidelines, the Giants won with such ease against Seattle last week and can only be a little too cocky this week.  They will definitely bounce some.  Second, New York has played three home games and just one road game, which was at St. Louis.  This is their first road game against a team that has enough talent to score points against their defense.

 

The problem with this game is that there are too many variables.  I like the Browns’ prospects in this game.  I think they have a better than expected chance of keeping this one close and having a shot at the big upset.  However, if this isn’t the week they awaken from their offensive slumber, this game could be another snoozer for the fans.  It isn’t one to consider in my strategies.

 

The Imaginary Bank Account Makes It Five-for-Five

 

It wasn’t pretty, but after the smoke cleared Sunday night in Jacksonville, I was a winner for the fifth consecutive week.  My picks finished 7-4 for the week, running my record to 34-16-3 for the season (68%).

 

Due to the fact that I lost a money line pick, my profit was only $80, bringing my year-to-date profit to $1,345.00.  That gives me a return on investment of 25.4%.  The come from behind victory by Washington was the killer, as if Philadelphia had held on in the fourth quarter, the difference in 7-4 and 8-3 would have been an extra $360.  Oh well, I’ll just have to be glad with being able to maintain 100% winning weeks a month and a half into the season.

 

Last week, it was the straight wagers that won for me, as I went 4-1 in those five picks, while going just 3-3 in the 10-point teasers.  I have noticed that a lot of my teaser losses have come about because one team or one total in the parlay failed to cover by one or two points.  It kills you to watch a team elect to go for a touchdown late in the game and miss on fourth down when a field goal would have covered your wager, but such is life.  Losing by one or two points should be rectifiable by playing some 13-point teasers.  Of course, it could just be the new way to lose by one or two points, and I still have a 100% record of winning weeks, so I could be setting myself up for disaster.  Remember this!  I don’t really have anything monetary to worry about since I don’t actually wager with money.  So, I can gamble a little with four-team, 13-point teaser parlays and sleep comfortably this weekend. 

 

Here are my wagers for week six (all wagered to win $100):

 

1. New York Jets -240 vs. Cincinnati

 

2. Atlanta +3 vs. Chicago

 

3. Tampa Bay -1 vs. Carolina

 

4. Indianapolis -3½ vs. Baltimore

 

5. San Francisco +5 vs. Philadelphia

 

6. 10-point teaser

       A. Atlanta +13 vs. Chicago

       B. Minnesota -3 vs. Detroit

       C. Washington -3½ vs. St. Louis

 

7. 10-point teaser

       A. Tampa Bay +9 vs. Carolina

       B. Indianapolis +6½ vs. Baltimore

       C. Jacksonville +13 vs. Denver

 

8. 10-point teaser

       A. Green Bay +12 vs. Seattle

       B. San Francisco +15 vs. Philadelphia

       C. Tampa Bay & Carolina Over 26½

 

9. 10-point teaser

       A. Green Bay & Seattle Over 35½

       B. San Francisco & Philadelphia Over 32½

       C. Arizona +15 vs. Dallas

 

10. 13-point teaser

       A. New York Jets +7½ vs. Cincinnati

       B. Atlanta +16 vs. Chicago

       C. Minnesota Pk vs. Detroit

       D. St. Louis +26½ vs. Washington

 

11. 13-point teaser

       A. Detroit & Minnesota Over 32½

       B. Washington -½ vs. St. Louis

       C. Tampa Bay +12 vs. Carolina

       D. Indianapolis & Baltimore Over 25½

 

12. 13-point teaser

       A. Tampa Bay & Carolina Over 23½

       B. Indianapolis +9½ over Baltimore

       C. Jacksonville +16 vs. Denver

       D. Green Bay +15 vs. Seattle

 

13. 13-point teaser

       A. Green Bay & Seattle Over 32½

       B. San Francisco +18 vs. Philadelphia

       C. San Francisco & Philadelphia Over 29½

       D. Arizona +18 vs. Dallas              

 

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all nine wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

PiRate Ratings Week 4 NFL Previews–September 28-29, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week Four

(Listed Alphabetically Within Each Division)
NFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Dallas		3	–	0	–	0	96	63	113.56	109.11	109.08	2
New York		3	–	0	–	0	83	43	105.26	105.58	107.36	2
Philadelphia		2	–	1	–	0	90	50	110.86	107.07	108.31	2
Washington		2	–	1	–	0	60	57	105.74	102.17	103.37	2
NFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Chicago		1	–	2	–	0	70	60	105.16	102.48	100.27	2
Detroit		0	–	3	–	0	59	113	86.65	90.03	89.19	3
Green Bay		2	–	1	–	0	88	71	106.24	103.71	104.95	2
Minnesota		1	–	2	–	0	54	52	104.57	101.33	99.97	2
NFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Atlanta		2	–	1	–	0	81	59	96.23	97.28	97.01	2
Carolina		2	–	1	–	0	56	61	101.51	101.57	102.12	2
New Orleans		1	–	2	–	0	80	83	104.27	100.82	101.05	2
Tampa Bay		2	–	1	–	0	71	57	104.04	102.73	102.85	2
NFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Arizona		2	–	1	–	0	71	47	103.78	101.02	102.29	3
St. Louis		0	–	3	–	0	29	116	76.37	86.82	84.63	2
San Francisco		2	–	1	–	0	67	56	94.04	96.39	97.14	3
Seattle		1	–	2	–	0	67	70	94.51	96.81	99.47	3
AFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Buffalo		3	–	0	–	0	78	49	101.85	103.16	104.75	3
Miami		1	–	2	–	0	62	64	94.20	96.85	95.39	2
New England		2	–	1	–	0	49	58	100.19	101.62	104.35	2
New York		1	–	2	–	0	59	81	94.49	96.99	96.90	2
AFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Baltimore		2	–	0	–	0	45	20	101.46	100.74	102.42	3
Cincinnati		0	–	3	–	0	40	67	95.26	96.83	95.84	2
Cleveland		0	–	3	–	0	26	66	89.56	94.30	91.95	2
Pittsburgh		2	–	1	–	0	54	38	102.78	103.38	103.62	2
AFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Houston		0	–	2	–	0	29	69	89.13	96.35	93.42	3
Indianapolis		1	–	2	–	0	52	67	101.40	101.34	101.17	2
Jacksonville		1	–	2	–	0	49	58	103.10	102.42	101.84	3
Tennessee		3	–	0	–	0	72	29	105.98	106.64	106.51	2
AFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Denver		3	–	0	–	0	114	84	104.17	103.69	104.08	2
Kansas City		0	–	2	–	0	32	78	82.22	90.08	88.50	2
Oakland		1	–	2	–	0	60	73	94.45	96.52	94.39	2
San Diego		1	–	2	–	0	110	94	106.59	104.07	105.92	2

 

 

NFL Previews-Week Four

 

Denver Broncos (3-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-3)

Time:           1 PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in upper 70’s

 

PiRate:         Denver by 20    

Mean:           Denver by 12

Bias:             Denver by 4

Vegas:        Denver by 9½

Ov/Un:        46½

Strategy:     Denver +½ in 10-point teaser, Over 36½ in 10-point teaser

On the surface, this looks like a slam-dunk game for the Broncos.  Kansas City has scored just 32 points in three games. They have already lost at home to Oakland, and Denver blew the Raiders out in Oakland.  So, why is Denver not a double-digit favorite?  The Broncos have problems on defense, and Kansas City should score a season high in points Sunday. 

 

Damon Huard will start at quarterback for the Chiefs, and while he is not a star, he will perform better than Tyler Thigpen.  Look for the Chiefs to hit the 20-point mark for the first time this year, but Jay Cutler and company will score 24 to 35. 

 

Since the Bias rating doesn’t believe Denver can cover at 9½, I am sticking with the teaser plays in this one. 

 

Cleveland Browns (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-3)

Time:           1 PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly Cloudy, light wind, temperature in upper 70’s

 

PiRate:        Cincinnati by 8

Mean:           Cincinnati by 5

Bias:             Cincinnati by 6

Vegas:        Cincinnati by 3½

Ov/Un:        44

Strategy:     Cincinnati -3½, Cincinnati +6½ in 10-point teaser, Over 34 in 10-point teaser             

The losing coach in this game will have to purchase asbestos pants, because his seat is going to be mighty hot come Monday morning.  One of these teams will be 0-4 and have absolutely no chance of recovery.  The winner will still be in trouble at 1-3, but they will still be in the race in this division.  If you are old enough to remember 1970, the Bengals actually began that year 1-6 before winning seven in a row to take the division by a game over the Browns.

 

Neither team has a great defense, but Cincinnati began to play a little more consistently last week in New Jersey.  Cleveland might be in last place in defense if not for playing Pittsburgh in weather more suitable to trout.  The Browns’ offense has been the top disappointment in the NFL thus far, and Derek Anderson has a pitiful 43.5 QB Rating.  If he doesn’t come out of the gate hot this week, look for Brady Quinn to become the new quarterback.  Sticking with the nostalgia theme, back in 1968, Frank Ryan began the season as the Browns’ QB but in about the fourth game, Bill Nelsen took over.  Cleveland was a different team with Nelsen, and the Browns went on a long winning streak to win their division after digging themselves a hole at the beginning.

 

In this big rivalry game, I look for the Bengals to be ready to play good, but not great defense, while the Browns’ play better than they have to date and make this a great game.  It won’t be like last year’s shootout, but this one should be decided late.  I’ll go with the home team to win, but I am not wild about the selection.  I like teasing the Over, because these teams have the potential to score points quickly.

 

 

Houston Texans (0-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)

Time:           1 PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly Cloudy, light wind, humid, temperature in upper 80’s

 

PiRate:        Jacksonville by 17

Mean:           Jacksonville by 9

Bias:             Jacksonville by 11

Vegas:        Jacksonville by 7

Ov/Un:        42½

Strategy:     Houston +17 in 10-point teaser, Jacksonville +3 in 10-point teaser, Under 52½ in 10-point teaser

Jacksonville should have some momentum after winning at Indianapolis last week.  That half-day scoring drive that consumed most of the second half was quite impressive, but it is not conducive to covering the spread when a team is favored like the Jags are this week.

 

Houston looked better than their 19-point loss to Tennessee last week.  Until a late 99-yard interception return for a touchdown, the Texans were actually threatening to cut the Titans lead to less than a touchdown with enough time to win the game.

 

I think the Texans will be a little down this week, and when you combine the high the Jaguar players will be on this week, I can only see Jacksonville winning this game.  However, as I mentioned above, the Jaguars may or may not cover the spread because of their style of play.  They could easily win 17-10.  So, I’m going with both sides as part of a 10-point teaser, and I’m teasing the Under. 

 

 

Arizona Cardinals (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2)

Time:           1 PM EDT

TV:               FOX

Forecast:     60% chance of Thundershowers could be heavy at times and affect the game, light wind, temperature around 70

 

PiRate:        Arizona by 7

Mean:           Arizona by 2

Bias:             Arizona by 3

Vegas:        New York Jets by 1

Ov/Un:        44

Strategy:     Arizona +11 in 10-point teaser, Over 34 in 10-point teaser          

If the weather turns out to be a factor, it could actually help Brett Favre and Kurt Warner.  People mistakenly believe a wet field curtails passing.  It does not; in fact, it can be a major help.  Remember, the offensive player knows where he is going and when he is going to make a cut, while the defender has to react. 

 

Both of these hard-throwing drop back passers may also benefit from a slower pass rush if the weather is lousy.  Of course, there is a two in five chance that it won’t rain, and that produces a predicament. 

 

Either way, I don’t think the Jets are capable of beating the Cardinals by double digits, so I am going with the visitors in a teaser play.  With these two gunslingers going at it, I expect this game to see its share of scoring.  Therefore, I like teasing the Over.

 

 

San Francisco 49ers (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (1-2)

Time:           1 PM EDT

TV:               FOX

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:        New Orleans by 12

Mean:           New Orleans by 6

Bias:             New Orleans by 6

Vegas:        New Orleans by 5½

Ov/Un:        48

Strategy:     Over 48, Over 38 in 10-point teaser            

This game should be one of the more exciting games of the week.  J.T. O’Sullivan may be on the verge of becoming another Kurt Warner.  Having Mike Martz as his offensive coordinator means he will be throwing the ball for the 49ers a lot in the Superdome on Sunday.

 

Drew Brees deserves more credit than he is getting.  He is on pace for a 4,500 yard season, and it won’t be anything new if he gets it.  If the Saints’ running game can live up to its potential, then New Orleans may eventually have a more potent offense than Dallas.

 

If I had to pick a straight spread winner in this game, I’d go with San Francisco.  I don’t have much confidence in that pick, at least not enough to make it a selection.  I do think this game could be a 35-31 game, so I like the Over as a straight selection and love it as part of a teaser.

 

 

Atlanta Falcons (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (2-1)

Time:           1 PM EDT

TV:               FOX

Forecast:     30% chance of Thunderstorms could affect game, light wind temperature in the upper 70’s

 

PiRate:        Carolina by 7

Mean:           Carolina by 6

Bias:             Carolina by 7

Vegas:        Carolina by 6½

Ov/Un:        39½

Strategy:     Carolina +3½ in 10-point teaser, Under 49½ in 10-point teaser          

This is another game that could be affected by the weather, so I approach it with caution.

 

The Falcons have benefited from playing Detroit and Kansas City, two of the worst four teams in the NFL.  Carolina has played at San Diego, Chicago, and at Minnesota.  Their 2-1 record is more legitimate than Atlanta’s.  The one time the Falcons ventured on the road this season, they lost at Tampa Bay and didn’t really compete in that game.  I tend to believe that will happen again this week, but Atlanta will play a little tougher in this road game.

 

I am impressed with the Falcons’ defense this year and think that they will eventually beat a playoff-bound team.  I just don’t think it will happen this week.  However, I don’t see Carolina having their way in this game.  I can see a 21-17 score, so I am going to go with the Under in a teaser.

 

 

Minnesota Vikings (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (3-0)

Time:           1 PM EDT

TV:               FOX

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, humid, temperature near 80

 

PiRate:        Tennessee by 3

Mean:           Tennessee by 7

Bias:             Tennessee by 9

Vegas:        Tennessee by 3

Ov/Un:        35½

Strategy:     Minnesota +13  in 10-point teaser, Tennessee +7  in 10-point teaser Over 25½ in 10-point teaser, Under 45½ in 10-point teaser        

These teams are eerily similar except for their records.  Both teams began the season with running quarterbacks that many sports analysts believed could not keep defenses honest with their passing skills.  Both teams began the season with very strong running attacks and doubts that they had adequate pass receivers.  Both teams had punishing defensive front sevens and improving pass defenses.  Both teams were supposed to win games by ugly scores with brute force on both sides of the ball.

 

Now, both teams find themselves being led at quarterback by an aging veteran, and both teams have discovered those pass receivers aren’t all that bad once a competent quarterback began to throw them the ball.

 

The difference in these two teams is that Kerry Collins became the Titans’ starting quarterback in the fourth quarter of game one, while Gus Frerotte took over for the Vikings in game three.  The Titans would be fortunate to win by a field goal in this one, so I cannot select them even at home against a team not prepared to play in hot and muggy weather.  I do think this game will be decided by less than a touchdown either way, so I like teasing both sides.  I also like teasing both of the Totals.  That 20-point range looks rather safe.  Collins and Frerotte might hook up in a mini-passing duel if both of the defensive lines prove that top-rated run defenses can stop top-rated runners. 

 

I tend to believe Adrian Peterson will find a modicum of success against Tennessee’s front wall and end up with about 90 yards on 25 attempts.  I believe the combo of Chris Johnson and LenDale White will combine for 30 carries and 105 rushing yards.  That means that the game will be decided by who has the hotter passing day.  It should be close.  I’ll go with a game with a score similar to 20-17 either way.

 

 

Green Bay Packers (2-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)

Time:           1 PM EDT

TV:               FOX

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, humid, temperature in the mid to upper 80’s

 

PiRate:        Pick’em

Mean:           Tampa Bay by 1

Bias:             Pick’em

Vegas:        Pick’em

Ov/Un:        42½

Strategy:     Tampa Bay +10 in 10-point teaser, Under 52½ in 10-point teaser           

I have been struggling with analyzing both of these teams thus far.  I don’t think either has found its true identity as of yet.  My three ratings and the Vegas spread are basically all the same, so I am not about to begin to pick a side in this one.  If I absolutely had to go with a winner, I’d take Tampa Bay for three reasons.  First, Green Bay’s players are going to suffer more fatigue in the second half of this game than in any other game this year due to the summer-like conditions.  Next, the Packers may be a little thin in their secondary with Al Harris out and Charles Woodson, Atari Bigby, and Aaron Rouse all ailing.  Additionally, Aaron Rodgers may be a little confused facing the multiple defenses Tampa Bay will throw at him.

 

On the other hand, I am not convinced that Tampa Bay’s offense can exploit the secondary liabilities of the Packers.  Brian Griese is not the type of passer who can sting defenses with a bevy of long passes.  He’s more of the dink and doink quarterback who picks on the short zones.  On top of that, Griese is not 100% healthy this week.

 

For the reasons mentioned above, I like teasing the Under.  I can see this one ending in the range of 24-20.  I’m going with the Bucs in a teaser play as well, but I will hold off on playing the other side of that teaser.

 

 

Buffalo Bills (3-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-3)

Time:           4:05 PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:        Buffalo by 23

Mean:           Buffalo by 14

Bias:             Buffalo by 18

Vegas:        Buffalo by 8

Ov/Un:        42

Strategy:     Buffalo +2 in 10-point teaser, Over 32 in 10-point teaser     

The Rams have looked like the worst NFL team in two decades so far this season, while the Bills have shot out to the lead in the AFC East.  Still, this game scares me.  This is St. Louis’s final game before their bye week.  If they lose this game in another blowout, Coach Scott Linehan will more than likely not see game five in two weeks.  Linehan has made numerous changes this week including naming Trent Green the starting quarterback over Marc Bulger.  Bulger has come out publicly in the media and said he will not play another game for Linehan.  Star running back Steven Jackson endorsed Bulger and openly opposed his benching. 

 

One of two things will happen this week.  Either the Rams’ players will get behind their coach and show a major improvement, or this team will begin to resemble the 1952 Dallas Texans.  Either way, I think Buffalo has a great chance to win outright, but since I like to play conservatively, I’d much rather get Buffalo and points than have to worry about them covering by more than a touchdown.  I like teasing the Over because the Rams have given up more than 32 points in every game, and two of those opponents have weaker offenses than the Bills do right now.

 

 

San Diego Chargers (1-2) at Oakland Raiders (1-2)

Time:           4:05 PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in low 70’s

 

PiRate:        San Diego by 10

Mean:           San Diego by 6

Bias:             San Diego by 10

Vegas:        San Diego by 7½

Ov/Un:        45½

Strategy:     San Diego +2½ in 10-point teaser, Oakland +17½ in 10-point teaser, Over 35½ in 10-point teaser             

Did you hear what Raiders’ owner Al Davis decided to do when he was invited to a costume party?  He went as former Cleveland Cavaliers owner Ted Stepien (if you don’t know who Stepien was, Google his name).  After stepping down as head coach of the team in 1965, he hired John Rauch.  Rauch quickly made Oakland the dominant team of the old AFL.  From 1967 to 1969, the Raiders went 37-4-1 with Rauch at quarterback, but Davis couldn’t resist telling Rauch what he needed to be doing, as if 90.2% success wasn’t acceptable.  Rauch fled Oakland for the then moribund Bills.  So, the meddling isn’t anything new.  It just gets a lot more press coverage in the 24/7 media world of the 21^st Century.

 

The latest episode in the gridiron serial is called, “Is he or isn’t he?”  Coach Lane Kiffin, who actually is beginning to receive more and more accolades as a young man who knows what he is doing, has been like the condemned prisoner who keeps getting a reprieve from the Governor as he is being strapped into the chair.  We all know that eventually Kiffin’s appeals will run out, and he will no longer be the head coach.

 

Until then, Kiffin and his team simply have to deal with all the distractions including having a defensive coordinator who does not get along with the head coach and does not have any loyalty to him.

 

Somehow in all this mess, the Raiders have been competitive after looking terrible on the opening week of the season.  If not for a late collapse last week, this team could be 2-1. 

 

The Raiders’ opponent this week is also 1-2, but they are the best NFL team with a losing record.  San Diego could easily be 3-0 today, and they legitimately should be 2-1.  The Chargers are a team with huge chips on the shoulders of its players and coaches.  That is a good thing, because this team knows it is in a bit of a hole being two games behind Denver.

 

The biggest concern to me in this game is the nasty spread.  I don’t like 7½-point spreads in any game unless I think it is off by five points or more.  The Chargers should be able to outscore Oakland, but it’s iffy whether they can win by eight or more.   I like teasing both sides, although I would advise against picking the Raiders in any play right now.

 

Washington Redskins (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EDT

TV:               FOX

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature near 90

 

PiRate:        Dallas by 10

Mean:           Dallas by 9

Bias:             Dallas by 8

Vegas:        Dallas by 11

Ov/Un:        46½

Strategy:     Washington +22 in 10-point teaser, Under 56½ in 10-point teaser

The old movies where the cowboys and Indians fought it out always provided great entertainment to young and old alike back in the 1950’s and 1960’s.  Today, that type of movie would be considered politically incorrect, but we still have this epic arch-rivalry game between two franchises who like nothing more than to beat their nemesis.

 

Dallas has the upper hand these days, but Washington is improving and capable of winning in their last scheduled visit to Texas Stadium.  I see one of the best plays here this week.  I am going with the underdog in a teaser.  When you get 22 points with a decent team, it makes it quite difficult for the other team to beat you.  Dallas is coming off an emotional Sunday night game at Green Bay, and they may have just enough of a bounce to allow the Redskins to stay in the game.  Washington’s defense and ball control offense should keep this game lower scoring than normal, so I like teasing the Totals line as well.

 

 

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at Chicago Bears (1-2)

Time:           8:15 PM EDT

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, 20% chance of rain, light wind, temperatures falling from the mid 60’s to upper 50’s

 

PiRate:        Philadelphia by 4

Mean:           Philadelphia by 3

Bias:             Philadelphia by 6

Vegas:        Philadelphia by 3

Ov/Un:        40½

Strategy:     Chicago +13 in 10-point teaser, Philadelphia +7 in 10-point teaser, Over 30½ in 10-point teaser

If you consider that Dallas has a home field advantage of about three points, then Philadelphia must be about as powerful as the Cowboys right now.  However, not many football fans would agree with the Cowboys being a three-point pick over the Bears.  The spread would be more like seven to nine points if Dallas were venturing to Soldier Field this week.

 

Both teams have major injury concerns for this game.  The Bears top receiver, Brandon Lloyd, has a sore hip.  He did not practice today (Thursday) and is questionable for Sunday.  Devin Hester is still suffering from sore ribs, and he has been limited in practice.  He too is listed as questionable.  Without one or both of these stars, the Bears become a much easier team to defend.

 

Philadelphia has some question marks as well.  Quarterback Donovan McNabb will play with a sore chest, while running back Brian Westbrook has an ankle injury and will be a game-time decision. 

 

Factoring all the injuries into the equation as well as the possibility that there could be some rain in this game, I look for it to be a close decision.  I think Philadelphia is the better team, but Chicago may be the hungrier team.  Therefore, I am playing both sides in a teaser here.  If the Bears win, I expect it to be by one to five points, and if the Eagles win, I cannot see it being by more than seven or eight points.

 

Baltimore Ravens (2-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)

Time:           8:30 PM EDT Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, 20% chance of rain, light wind, temperatures falling from the mid 60’s to upper 50’s

 

PiRate:        Pittsburgh by 3

Mean:           Pittsburgh by 5

Bias:             Pittsburgh by 3

Vegas:        Pittsburgh by 5

Ov/Un:        34½

Strategy:     Pittsburgh +5 in 10-point teaser 

Are the Ravens for real this year?  Could it be that last year was just a fluke?  How about the Steelers?  Can they score enough points to win this game after doing nothing on the attack side the prior two games?

 

Of all the games on this week’s schedule, this is the most intriguing to me.  I don’t like playing the Under in Monday Night Football games, because they tend to become more of a theatrical event with a high number of points scored.  If this game were a 1 PM game on Sunday, I would be playing Under 44½ in a teaser, because I would be picking this game to be a 14-13 affair.  I cannot recommend a play here. 

 

Baltimore will be without the services of leading tackler Dawan Landry after Jamal Lewis steamrollered over him last week.  Additionally, cornerback Samari Rolle could miss the game.  Pittsburgh will not have starting running back Willie Parker available for this game, and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will play with multiple injuries.   

 

 

The Imaginary Bank Account Increases Again In Week Three

It wasn’t as beautiful as the first two weeks, but I maintained my perfect record of having a winning week in week three.  I finished 6-4-1, with a profit of $95.  For the year, that makes me 22-10-1 (68.8%) with a profit of $1,005.  For the year, I now have a return on investment of 30.5%.

 

As week four begins, I feel the urge to play a little conservatively and protect my investment.  I like teasing the totals lines when I believe the folks in Las Vegas have struggled with either lowering or raising it too much.  Moving that line by 10 points in our advantage gives me the sense that we are getting 15 points when it appears that the totals line has been moved more toward the average.

 

Here are my wagers for week four (all wagered to win $100):

 

1. Jacksonville -300 Money Line

 

2. Pittsburgh -230 Money Line

 

3. New Orleans and San Francisco Over 48

 

4. 10-Point Teaser

       a. Denver & Kansas City Over 36½

       b. Houston +17 vs. Jacksonville

       c. Houston & Jacksonville Under 52½

 

5. 10-Point Teaser

       a. Jacksonville +3 vs. Houston

       b. Arizona +11 vs. New York Jets

       c. Arizona & New York Jets Over 34

 

6. 10-Point Teaser

       a. San Francisco and New Orleans Over 38

       b. Carolina + 3½ vs. Atlanta

       c. Minnesota +13 vs. Tennessee

 

7. 10-Point Teaser

       a. Tennessee +7 vs. Minnesota

       b. Tampa Bay +10 vs. Green Bay

       c. Buffalo +2 vs. St. Louis

 

8. 10-Point Teaser

       a. Buffalo & St. Louis Over 32

       b. San Diego +2½ vs. Oakland

       c. San Diego & Oakland Over 35½

 

9. 10-Point Teaser

       a. Oakland + 17½ vs. San Diego

       b. Washington +22 vs. Dallas

       c. Philadelphia +7 vs. Chicago      

 

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all nine wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.