Conference USA Preview

If you are new to the PiRate Ratings, we have three different ratings, which are basically three different algorithms calculated using identical data.  The PiRate and Bias are closely correlated.  The Mean is a bit of an outlier.  The differences in the three ratings’ algorithms are designed to catch different outcomes in a season.  In some years, trends make one rating better than the others.  In some years, all three ratings move in lockstep and appear to be nearly identical.  Additionally, the process for updating the three different ratings differs for each one.  The PiRate has the most conservative updating formula, while the Bias has the most liberal updating formula.  The Mean has an average updating formula.

Wow!  It feels like last week, Alabama was toying with Ohio State to win the 2020-21 FBS National Championship!  If it feels like August 13th came about two months quicker than normal, maybe it has more to do with the fact that updating the PiRate Ratings was a much more involved process this Spring and Summer.  The issues with Covid totally messed up the 2020 season, and the new Transfer Portal led to players leaving school as late as July and waiting until the end of July to choose their new school, so updating the ratings became a two-fold process.  The old way of updating the ratings took place between Memorial Day Weekend and Mid-July.  Then, from Mid-July to last week, we had to perform a new update where, in essence, we had to treat about 165 of the top transfers as lost starters to their old team and as new starters to their new team.  

These 165 players represented 4293 basis points, or to put it into something meaningful to you, 4293 basis points in our ratings’ algorithms account for about 61.3 power rating points, give or take a point or two.  82 different FBS teams had a gain or loss of basis points from at least one player move involving these teams.  48 teams did not have a gain or loss of basis points, with 47 having no meaningful player movement, while the 48th team had a net of 0 basis points from their gain of a player and loss of a player where the players were basically of equal talent.

If you follow our ratings, you probably know that our 130 teams always average 100.0, as 100.0 is par.  When you see a team ranked at 111.3, that means they are 11.3 points better than the average team.  If a team is ranked at 92.8, that means they are 7.2 points weaker than the average team.  Thus, if there are 130 teams, and 100 is par, the grand total of team ratings must be 13,000.  So, if 82 teams had their ratings altered by a total of 61.3 points, the other 48 teams had to have their ratings altered as well so that the total was 13,000.  Those 61.3 points were not all in the same direction.  32.6 points came from improvement, while 28.7 points came from weakening.  The grand total of -3.9 points had to be distributed to the other 48 teams.  Basically 39 teams lost one tenth of a point, while the best nine teams of the 48 stayed stat.

Today, we begin previewing our first FBS conference.  Coming in at 11th place (last place) among the conferences is Conference USA.  Once considered an improved version of the Sun Belt Conference, CUSA has fallen several notches behind their Southern Group of 5 rival.  

In July, CUSA held its annual preseason meeting, and the media voted their preseason picks.  Here it is:

2021 CUSA Football Preseason Poll

EAST DIVISION

1. Marshall (17)
2. Florida Atlantic (6)
3. WKU (1)
4. Charlotte
5. Middle Tennessee
6. FIU
7. Old Dominion

WEST DIVISION

1. UAB (15)
2. UTSA (9)
3. Louisiana Tech
4. Southern Miss
5. Rice
6. North Texas
7. UTEP

How does this compare to the PiRate Ratings?  Take a look at our preseason ratings.

Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	93.4	93.4	93.6	93.4
Florida Atlantic	86.7	88.6	87.8	87.7
Middle Tennessee	83.4	83.1	84.7	83.7
Western Kentucky	81.7	83.6	82.8	82.7
Charlotte	78.8	79.6	80.2	79.5
Florida Int’l.	77.9	78.9	80.1	79.0
Old Dominion	71.2	71.9	71.2	71.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	95.4	95.2	94.9	95.2
U T S A	94.0	94.5	93.4	93.9
Rice	87.0	87.1	87.3	87.1
Louisiana Tech	86.9	87.4	85.2	86.5
Southern Miss.	83.3	85.2	84.5	84.4
North Texas	82.1	81.7	81.4	81.7
U T E P	76.3	77.2	74.4	76.0
CUSA Averages	84.1	84.8	84.4	84.4

While the PiRate Ratings are designed only to estimate the result of each team’s next game, we issue predicted standings every year just for fun.  Just because a team is ranked ahead of another, it doesn’t mean we are predicting them to win.  Our ratings have built in alterations to every team’s power rating based on depth and experience.  A team lacking depth may see their power rating fall as the season goes along, and we perceive that these poor depth teams will begin to show fatigue.  Likewise, a team with a lot of talent but low experience may see their power rating rise as the season goes along, and we perceive that these lesser experienced players gain enough experience for the game to slow down to them.

Here are our predicted won-loss records for CUSA.

CUSA East	Conf.	Overall
Marshall	6-2	8-5
Florida Atlantic	6-2	8-4
Florida Int’l.	4-4	5-7
Western Kentucky	4-4	5-7
Middle Tennessee	3-5	5-7
Old Dominion	0-8	1-11
CUSA West	Conf.	Overall
UTSA	7-1	10-3 *
UAB	7-1	8-4
Rice	6-2	7-5
Louisiana Tech	6-2	7-5
Southern Miss.	3-5	4-8
UTEP	1-7	3-9
UTSA picked to win CUSA Championship Game

2018 Conference USA Preview

Note: The preseason ratings you see in the previews may not be the same as the ratings you see for the first game. We update every team’s rating based on player injuries, changes to the depth charts, and other factors that may change during preseason practice.

Some of our Group of 5 Conference won-loss predictions were figured before the beginning of August preseason practices. Thus, it could be that a player or players on some teams have already suffered season-ending or multiple game injuries or have left their teams, and these won-loss predictions no longer accurately reflect our ratings. We hope that by the time we preview the Power 5 conferences, we will know who is not going to be available (players and head coaches).

 

Conference USA is an interesting league. Annually, it comes in as the second weakest conference overall to begin each season, sometimes just a fraction ahead of the Sun Belt. Yet. this league produces a plethora of bowl-eligible teams. Last year was no different, as 10 of the 14 schools earned bowl eligibility, and nine received bowl invitations.

Last year, after a slow start that saw his team lose big to Navy and Wisconsin and then suffer a heartbreaking loss at Buffalo, Lane Kiffin’s Florida Atlantic team caught fire and won their final 10 games. Included in the season-ending sweep were a CUSA Championship Game title and a victory in the Boca Raton Bowl, both by fat margins. The Owls finished the season averaging better than 40 points and almost 500 total yards per game, but Kiffin will have to rebuild on this side of the ball. Expect defense to help FAU contend for another conference title.

Marshall and Middle Tennessee should be FAU’s chief competition for the title. Coach Doc Holliday is one of the best recruiters in the Group of 5 conferences, and he has a lot of experienced talent returning to Marshall. If not for the fact that the Thundering Herd will have to break in a new quarterback and has no player that has thrown even one pass for the school in a game. Additionally, there will be a new offensive coordinator, as Tim Cramsey comes to Huntington from Sam Houston State and brings a new offense.  Of course, his 2017 SHU offense merely averaged better than 43 points per game and proved to be powerful running and passing the ball.

Middle Tennessee has the top returning quarterback in the division in Brent Stockstill, but the Blue Raiders have an iffy secondary and could be forced to outscore opponents every week.

The West Division looks like a three-team race. North Texas, Lousiana Tech, and UAB could finish in a three-way tie, with Southern Mississippi a distant fourth. Having two of the weakest FBS teams in the same division in Rice and UTEP, means that the other four division rivals can almost count on two conference victories already.

North Texas has the top overall quarterback in the league and maybe the best overall in the Lone Star State in Mason Fine. As a sophomore last season, he finished 6th nationally in passing yards, and he is the leading passing yardage leader among returning quarterbacks. Fine has most of his receiving corps returning this year, so if he gets just a little better pass protection, he could lead the Mean Green to the best season in Denton since Hayden Fry coached there in the late 1970’s. UNT Coach Seth Littrell is on a fast track to taking over a big time program. Every stop along the way, the team he has coached as an assistant set passing and total offense records. Mentoring Fine is not the first time he has trained a top prospect into a big-time talent. He previously tutored Nick Foles at Arizona.

UAB coach Bill Clark takes a back seat to nobody. How’s this for an incredible feat of wizardry? Clark stayed with the program when the school dropped football for two seasons. With just a handful of recruits to work with and a promise of playing again in the future, he recruited enough talent and then “coached ’em up.” Picked to maybe win two games by most pundits last year in their return to the game, UAB enjoyed an 8-win season and bid to the Bahamas Bowl. With 14 starters returning from last year’s first team back in football and a decent recruiting class, UAB should be right there with North Texas in the West Division race.

Skip Holtz is the big name in the West Division of CUSA, and his Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have to be considered one of the tri-favorites in this division. His team underperformed a bit last year but still managed to win seven times and make an appearance in the Frisco Bowl, where LT looked more like the team people expected them to be, dusting SMU 51-10. The Techsters have a lot of returning talent, and if said talent plays more like they did in the bowl and less like they did against Southern Miss and Rice, then the Bulldogs could make it back to the top of the division.

Here is how the CUSA media voted in the preseason poll.

Team
East Division	1st Place Votes
1. Florida Atlantic	22
2. Marshall	4
3. Middle Tennessee	0
4. Florida Int’l.	0
5. Western Kentucky	0
6. Old Dominion	0
7. Charlotte	0
Team
West Division	1st Place Votes
1. North Texas	18
2. Louisiana Tech	4
3. UAB	3
4. Southern Miss.	1
5. UTSA	0
6t. Rice	0
6t. UTEP	0

There were no votes for overall conference champion.

The PiRate Ratings basically confirm the media’s preseason opinions.

Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	0-0	0-0	102.0	103.0	103.3	102.8
Marshall	0-0	0-0	94.3	97.1	95.0	95.5
Middle Tennessee	0-0	0-0	91.4	93.4	93.0	92.6
Old Dominion	0-0	0-0	87.5	91.3	89.0	89.3
Florida Int’l.	0-0	0-0	82.0	86.8	82.6	83.8
W. Kentucky	0-0	0-0	80.4	84.6	81.2	82.1
Charlotte	0-0	0-0	76.2	78.7	76.3	77.1
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	0-0	0-0	93.8	96.4	95.2	95.1
N. Texas	0-0	0-0	93.0	96.3	93.6	94.3
U A B	0-0	0-0	91.1	93.6	91.5	92.1
Southern Miss.	0-0	0-0	81.6	85.0	82.1	82.9
U T S A	0-0	0-0	80.2	85.6	81.6	82.5
Rice	0-0	0-0	71.4	74.5	69.7	71.9
U T E P	0-0	0-0	69.3	72.5	68.6	70.1
CUSA Averages			85.3	88.5	85.9	86.6

New Coaches

When a large majority of schools gain bowl eliibility, there are not going to be a lot of coaching dismissals. Unless coaches get better jobs, they will return to their respective schools. As mentioned previously, Rice and UTEP ranked in the bottom 10 of all FBS schools last year, and these two teams will welcome new leaders.

Rice hired MIke Bloomgren and hopes to get the same results that Bloomgren produced as offensive coordinator at Stanford. He also has experience coaching with the New York Jets during the Rex Ryan era. The Owls will use power running mixed with play-action passing and hope to improve on 16 points and 330 yards per game on offense. Thanks to home games with Prairie View and UTEP, Bloomgren should double the win total from one to two.

UTEP wore the collar last year, going 0-12 and losing by an average of 25 points per game. The Miners hired 55-year old Dana Dimel, who for the last decade has been the offensive coordinator at Kansas State. Dimel has past head coaching stops at Wyoming and Houston. He succeeded in Laramie but failed in Houston. In year one, he faces a gargantuan rebuilding process, but you cannot really go south from 0-12, unless you repeat with another 0-12 that includes a loss to an FCS team. Northern Arizona will be a tough FCS opponent for the Miners.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

East
Team	Conference	Overall
Florida Atlantic	8-0	11-2 *
Marshall	7-1	9-3
Middle Tennessee	6-2	7-5
Old Dominion	4-4	6-6
Western Kentucky	3-5	5-7
Florida Int’l.	2-6	3-9
Charlotte	0-8	1-11
West
Team	Conference	Overall
North Texas	6-2	9-4
UAB	6-2	9-3
Louisiana Tech	6-2	8-4
Southern Miss.	4-4	5-7
UTSA	3-5	5-7
Rice	1-7	2-11
UTEP	0-8	1-11
* Fla. Atlantic picked to win CUSA Championship Game

Bowl Tie-ins
CUSA does not have a set bowl order. They send teams to bowls to create the best overall matchups.

These are the bowls tie-ins for 2018.

Bahamas Bowl in Nassau, Bahamas
Boca Raton Bowl in Boca Raton, FL
Gasparilla Bowl in St. Petersburg, FL
Hawaii Bowl in Honolulu, HI
Heart of Dallas Bowl in Dallas, TX
New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque, NM
New Orleans Bowl in New Orleans, LA

There are secondary bowl agreements with the Frisco Bowl in Frisco, Texas, and the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana, if those bowl need at-large alternates.

Coming Tomorrow–The Mid-American Conference

2017 Conference USA Preview

It’s day two of our annual college football conference previews.  Conference USA featured a lot of wide open, pass-it-all-over-the-field football last year, and in some weeks, perusing the league’s results left you wondering if this was football or basketball.  As an example, take the two division winners from 2016.  Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech met in the regular season, and then they had a rematch in the CUSA Championship Game.  The first time around Tech beat Western 56-52.  In the rematch, Western won the league title with a 58-44 victory.

Western Kentucky lost their offensive mastermind, when former coach Jeff Brohm took the Purdue job.  Will new Hilltopper head man Mike Sanford be able to keep the Toppers scoring 40 points per game?  The former Notre Dame offensive coordinator may be a tad more conservative in his play-calling, so we expect WKU will score less often this year.

However, the arrival of two new big-name coaches could add some points and excitement on the scoreboard in the Sunshine State.  Butch Davis is the new leader at Florida International, and Lane Kiffin takes over at Florida Atlantic.  A former CUSA coach returns to the league after a two-year hiatus without ever changing schools.  Welcome back UAB to college football.  Coach Bill Clark stayed loyal to the Blazers, and when UAB returns to the field on September 2 against Alabama A&M, the Blazers will have the same coach that guided the team to a very respectable 6-6 record in 2014.

Here is how the CUSA  media voted in the preseason poll.

CUSA-East
#	Team	1st Pl.
1	Western Kentucky	20
2	Middle Tennessee	4
3	Old Dominion	3
4	Marshall	1
5	Florida Atlantic	0
6	Florida Int’l	0
7	Charlotte	0
CUSA-West
#	Team	1st Pl.
1	Louisiana Tech	20
2	UTSA	7
3	Southern Miss.	1
4	North Texas	0
5	Rice	0
6	UTEP	0
7	UAB	0
Total Votes Not Released

The preseason PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings believe the CUSA race will be exciting and closer than last year.

Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
W. Kentucky	99.8	97.3	101.6	99.6
Old Dominion	90.9	93.9	91.4	92.1
Middle Tennessee	90.5	91.6	91.4	91.2
Florida Int’l.	84.0	83.9	85.2	84.4
Florida Atlantic	82.5	86.1	83.6	84.1
Marshall	81.9	83.8	82.7	82.8
Charlotte	74.4	77.6	74.9	75.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	91.3	93.1	93.5	92.6
Louisiana Tech	90.2	92.0	91.1	91.1
Southern Miss.	84.3	86.1	84.2	84.8
N. Texas	80.5	82.1	80.4	81.0
Rice	80.1	81.0	80.8	80.6
U T E P	74.8	79.3	76.1	76.8
UAB	63.7	69.2	65.9	66.3
CUSA Averages	89.9	92.1	91.0	91.0

Here are our not-so-scientific predictions for the league races, and the bowl projections.

Conference USA Projected Standings
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
East Division
Old Dominion	7-1	10-3	Bahamas
W. Kentucky	6-2	9-3	St. Petersburg
Middle Tennessee	6-2	7-5	New Orleans
Florida Atlantic	5-3	6-6	[Armed Forces]
Florida Int’l.	3-5	4-8
Marshall	2-6	3-9
Charlotte	1-7	2-10
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
West Division
Louisiana Tech	7-1	9-4	Boca Raton
U T S A	7-1	9-3	Heart of Dallas
Southern Miss.	6-2	8-4	New Mexico
N. Texas	2-6	3-9
U T E P	2-6	2-10
UAB	1-7	2-10
Rice	1-7	1-11
Old Dominion to win CUSA Championship Game
Fla. Atlantic’s bid to the Armed Forces is an at-large bid

Coming tomorrow: The Mountain West Conference–Will Boise St. return to the top, or will the Broncos look up at last year’s surprise winner Wyoming or Colorado St.?  Can San Diego St. continue to dominate in the West Division, or will an up and comer like Hawaii knock the Aztecs off their throne?

 

 

 

 

2017 College Football Season Previews Premiere Tuesday, August 15

Ahoy, Mateys!  Come aboard the PiRate Ship for the 2017-18 College Football Season.  The PiRates have set sail for the season, and we hope we sail on smooth waters all year.

Beginning, Tuesday, August 15, 2017, in the afternoon in the Eastern Daylight Time Zone (after 18 Hours GMT), we will commence with the first of our conference previews for the season, previewing one new conference per day.  As usual, we will begin with the lowest rated conference and continue until we conclude the previews with the top-rated conference.  You may or may not be surprised this year, but there are some changes in the lower end and the upper end of the conference ratings.  For the first time since its inception, the Sun Belt Conference does not tally the lowest overall score.  This year, that dubious distinction befalls Conference USA, and it is CUSA that will be our first preview. EDIT: Our Apologies to CUSA.  It is the Mid-American Conference that came up with the lowest league average, so look for the MAC Preview on Tuesday.

Here is a proposed schedule for our website for the 2017-18 sports season 

Tuesdays: Updated Retrodictive and Predictive Ratings & Spreads for the upcoming College Week

Wednesdays: Updated NFL Ratings and Spreads for the upcoming NFL Week.

Thursdays: Our infamous Money Line Parlay Selections (JUST FOR FUN).

Fridays: Tentatively, we are hoping to bring back our historic Pro Football Simulations this season.  We are looking at simulating an NFL Season using the best teams for 14 franchises between 1950 and 1975.  The 14 NFL teams in existence in 1965 will be used, and we will use the rules from that season, culminating with the NFL Championship Game (and maybe the Playoff Bowl).

Check back Tuesday afternoon (EDT) for the first preview of the PiRate Season.

As usual, our ratings will be part of the Prediction Tracker and the Massey Football Ranking Composite

http://thepredictiontracker.com/

http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

2016 Conference USA Football Ratings Preview

Conference USA has lost a lot of its prestige in recent years because the league has lost several teams with historic football success. At one time, Houston, Tulsa, East Carolina, Cincinnati, Louisville, and Memphis were members of the league.

In current times, CUSA has been able to barely avoid the basement as the weakest conference, maintaining a small edge over the Sun Belt.

The league race should be competitive this year, as three teams appear to be talented enough to contend for the East Division title. The West looks less competitive, but after prohibitive favorite Southern Mississippi, there are two or three teams capable of making a surprise run to the division title.

In the last two years, Marshall and Western Kentucky have been contenders for the automatic New Year’s Six Bowls, but no CUSA team figures to be in contention this year.

Here is a look at the Pre-season media poll. No vote counts were issued or for that matter, the media did not vote on overall conference champion.

CUSA-East
#	Team
1	Middle Tennessee
2	Western Kentucky
3	Marshall
4	Florida Atlantic
5	Florida Int’l.
6	Old Dominion
7	Charlotte
CUSA-West
#	Team
1	Southern Miss.
2	Louisiana Tech
3	Rice
4	UTEP
5	UTSA
6	North Texas

This is how the PiRate Ratings see the divisional races

Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	99.1	93.1	99.8	97.3
Marshall	92.3	96.7	94.1	94.4
Middle Tennessee	92.0	94.6	93.1	93.3
Old Dominion	85.7	89.1	86.3	87.0
Florida Atlantic	84.8	88.5	86.7	86.7
Florida Int’l.	82.3	89.5	84.2	85.3
Charlotte	72.9	81.0	74.5	76.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Southern Miss.	92.7	92.1	93.8	92.9
Rice	84.7	94.1	85.1	88.0
Louisiana Tech	85.4	88.6	86.0	86.7
UTSA	78.4	87.1	80.9	82.2
UTEP	74.5	79.5	75.8	76.6
North Texas	74.0	76.6	73.7	74.8
CUSA Averages	84.5	88.5	85.7	86.3

 

The PiRate Ratings are best used just to look forward to the next week game schedule.  These ratings cannot really be used to predict won-loss records, so with that caveat, here are the projected won-loss records based on the ratings alone.

Conference USA Projected Standings
East Division	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Marshall	7-1	10-3 *	Hawaii
Western Kentucky	7-1	9-3	New Orleans
Middle Tennessee	6-2	7-5	Heart of Dallas
Florida Int’l.	4-4	6-6	Bowl Eligible
Old Dominion	4-4	6-6	Bowl Eligible
Florida Atlantic	3-5	5-7
Charlotte	0-8	1-11
West Division	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Southern Miss.	8-0	10-3	Boca Raton
Rice	5-3	6-6	New Mexico
Louisiana Tech	4-4	6-6	Arizona
UTSA	3-5	4-8
UTEP	1-7	3-9
North Texas	0-8	1-11
* Marshall to win CUSA Championship Game

Next Preview: Wednesday, August 17–Mid-American Conference Preview

 

 

 

 

 

2015 Conference USA Preview

In today’s second conference preview, we take a look at Conference USA.  Last year, Marshall was oh so close to earning the league’s first ever major bowl bid, but the Thundering Herd dropped a heartbreaker in their final regular season game to Western Kentucky in a game that looked more like basketball on turf.  WKU won that contest 67-66, as both teams topped 700 total yards.

This year, Western Kentucky figures to be the hunted, while Marshall is the hunter.  The two rivals square off in Bowling Green, KY, on the Friday after Thanksgiving, and the winner should represent the East Division in the CUSA Championship Game.

Middle Tennessee has never won the conference title or even the East Division title, but the Blue Raiders have consistently stayed in the upper tier of teams every season.  2015 should be no different: look for MT to become bowl eligible but not compete for the division title.

Coach Ron Turner took over a Florida International program that had fallen on hard times, and he guided the Panthers to a 1-11 finish in his first season.  Last year, FIU improved by three games and suffered four close losses.  Look for the Panthers to win more of those close games this year, and FIU could be the surprise contender in the East.  We expect Turner’s crew to compete for bowl eligibility.

Old Dominion eeked out a .500 record last year by winning its final three games by the narrowest of margins.  Gone is the school’s all-time leading passer and all-time leading receiver, but the Monarchs have enough returning talent and a favorable enough schedule to repeat their 6-6 record.

Florida Atlantic will avoid the cellar this year because there is a new team in the FBS, but the Owls are clearly a bottom feeder this season.  Coach Charlie Partridge did a fine job in year one with very little depth, but he guided the Owls to an upset over WKU and had the Owls at 3-4 before the team collapsed in the final month due to fatigue.  It will be another long year in Boca Raton, but Partridge will eventually turn things around.

Welcome the Charlotte 49ers to the world of FBS football.  Unlike a lot of schools that have a long history at lower classifications, Charlotte is only in its third year of football history.  The 49ers finished 5-6 in both of the two prior seasons, but those five wins came against the likes of Johnson C. Smith, Wesley, Chowan, and Campbell.  The 2015 schedule sees 11 FBS schools including a road trip to Kentucky.  It will be a long season for Coach Brad Lambert’s club, as the 49ers will have to play above their talent level to win more than one game.

In the West Division, Louisiana Tech is the clear-cut favorite, but the Bulldogs are not infallible.  Former Florida quarterback Jeff Driskel will try to be an excellent game-manager for Coach Skip Holtz, but he has an excellent group of receivers and pass-catching backs, so look for his passing statistics to improve.

Rice has been to bowl games for three consecutive seasons, and the Owls should make it four in a row in 2015.  Coach David Bailiff has to rebuild his defense with the loss of seven of his top nine tacklers, but his offense will control the ball and keep the young defense off the field.

Our surprise sleeper team in the West is Southern Miss.  The Golden Eagles tanked when former coach Larry Fedora left for North Carolina, winning just four games in the last three years.  Third year coach Todd Monken’s offense should begin to look more like the Oklahoma State offense where he coached under Mike Gundy.  USM should score more than 25 points per game for the first time since 2011, and the record should be above .500 in the league.  A tough non-conference schedule which includes games against Mississippi State and Nebraska is the only thing that will prevent the Eagles from topping .500 overall.  Still, we see this team breaking even and earning a bowl bid this year.

Sean Kugler’s UTEP Miners were the big surprise in the league last year, going 7-5 in the regular season and earning a trip to the New Mexico Bowl.  This year, UTEP has too many holes to fill on both sides of the ball to repeat their success.  Look for the Miners to see a record reversal.

North Texas has suffered through nine losing seasons in the last 10 years.  Coach Dan McCarney is considered one of the more competent head coaches in the game, but even the most competent coaches cannot win without the horses.  The Mean Green have ponies, especially on the defensive side of the ball, so it will be another long year in Denton.

UT-San Antonio was supposed to contend for the 2014 CUSA West Division Title and the overall league title, and the Roadrunners began the season by trouncing Houston by 20 points.  Then, the season turned sour in San Antonio, as the Roadrunners walked home to a 4-8 record.  The bulk of the experienced roster is now gone, and this team looks like a threat to wear the collar in league play.

Here is how the media voted at the CUSA media days earlier this summer.

Conference USA Media Poll
Pos.	Team
East Division
1	Western Kentucky
2	Marshall
3	Middle Tennessee
4	Florida Atlantic
5	Florida Int’l
6	Old Dominion
7	Charlotte
West Division
1	Louisiana Tech
2	Rice
3	UTEP
4	Southern Miss
5	North Texas
6	UTSA

Here is the media’s preseason all-CUSA team.

Conference USA Preseason All-Conference Team
Offense	Player		School
Quarterback	Brandon Doughty		Western Kentucky
Running Back	Leon Allen		Western Kentucky
Running Back	Kenneth Dixon		Louisiana Tech
Running Back	Devon Johnson		Marshall
Running Back	Aaron Jones		UTEP
Wide Receiver	Jared Dangerfield		Western Kentucky
Wide Receiver	Carlos Harris		North Texas
Wide Receiver	Zach Pascal		Old Dominion
Wide Receiver	Trent Taylor		Louisiana Tech
Tight End	Jonnu Smith		Florida Int’l
Offensive Line	Jordan Budwig		Florida Int’l
Offensive Line	Darius Johnson		Middle Tennessee
Offensive Line	Kaydon Kirby		North Texas
Offensive Line	Andrew Reue		Rice
Offensive Line	Clint Van Horn		Marshall
Defense	Player		School
Defensive Line	Vernon Butler		Louisiana Tech
Defensive Line	Jason Neill		UTSA
Defensive Line	Jarquez Samuel		Marshall
Defensive Line	Michael Smith		Southern Miss
Defensive Line	Michael Wakefield		Florida Int’l
Linebacker	T. T. Barber		Middle Tennessee
Linebacker	Drew Douglas		UTSA
Linebacker	D. J. Hunter		Marshall
Defensive Back	Kevin Byard		Middle Tennessee
Defensive Back	Crevon LeBlanc		Florida Atlantic
Defensive Back	Richard Leonard		Florida Int’l
Defensive Back	Bennett Okotcha		UTSA
Defensive Back	Wonderful Terry		Western Kentucky
Defensive Back	Xavier Woods		Louisiana Tech
Special Teams	Player		School
Kicker	Trevor Moore		North Texas
Punter	Tyler Williams		Marshall
Kick Returner	Autrey Golden		UTEP
Punt Returner	Richard Leonard		Florida Int’l
Long Snapper	Matt Cincotta		Marshall

Here are our three computer ratings and average for each of the teams.

Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	100.6	98.6	101.7	100.3
Marshall	97.1	96.6	98.0	97.2
Middle Tennessee	93.1	92.6	92.5	92.7
Florida International	88.5	90.6	90.1	89.7
Old Dominion	82.3	89.6	81.5	84.5
Florida Atlantic	82.4	86.6	83.1	84.0
Charlotte	68.7	71.6	68.4	69.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	98.9	96.6	99.7	98.4
Rice	86.0	90.6	86.2	87.6
UTEP	84.5	89.2	84.6	86.1
Southern Mississippi	85.0	84.8	83.3	84.4
North Texas	81.4	88.6	82.7	84.2
UT-San Antonio	72.5	80.6	72.6	75.2
CUSA Averages	86.2	89.0	86.5	87.2

And, here are the PiRate Ratings won-loss predictions and bowl projections.

PiRate Ratings Predicted Records
Pos	Team	Conf.	Overall	Bowl
East Division
1	Western Kentucky	7-1	10-3 *	Bahamas
2	Marshall	7-1	11-1	St. Petersburg
3	Middle Tennessee	5-3	6-6	New Orleans
4	Florida Int’l	5-3	6-6	Arizona %
5	Old Dominion	4-4	6-6	At-Large
6	Florida Atlantic	1-7	2-10	None
7	Charlotte	0-8	1-11	None
West Division
1	Louisiana Tech	7-1	9-4 ^	Boca Raton
2	Rice	5-3	7-5	New Mexico
3	Southern Miss	5-3	6-6	Heart of Dallas
4	UTEP	3-5	5-7	None
5	North Texas	2-6	3-9	None
6	UTSA	1-7	1-11	None
*	Wins Title Game
^	Loses Title Game
%	The Arizona Bowl has no sponsor and may not be played in 2015

Coming Next: The Mid-American Conference

 

 

2012 Western Athletic Conference Preview

For many years, the Western Athletic Conference was strong enough to produce national title contenders as well as top 10 teams.  In the 1970’s, Arizona State routinely stayed in the top 10 as a WAC member, and rival Arizona moved as high as number 12 in 1975 when they faced the number two Sun Devils.

 

Brigham Young won a national championship in 1984 while a member of the WAC.

 

Even back in the 1960’s, this conference had top 10 teams, as Wyoming appeared in the top 10 for at least one week for three consecutive seasons.

 

In the 1996, the WAC expanded to 16 teams for three seasons.

 

Times have changed.  Defections almost doomed the league in recent years.  Boise State, Hawaii, Nevada, and Fresno State left for the Mountain West Conference, leaving just five football members.  Texas State and Texas-San Antonio were added to bring the number up to seven, but while the two new FBS members are eligible to win the WAC, neither is eligible to play in a bowl.

 

Oddly, the two new FBS members will be WAC members for just this season.  Texas State will move to the Sunbelt Conference next year.  UTSA is set to join Conference USA next year, taking Louisiana Tech with them.  San Jose State and Utah State are joining their former brethren in the Mountain West.  Idaho and New Mexico State have no place to go.  The Vandals might be forced to return to the Big Sky Conference and FCS football if they cannot afford making it as an independent, while NMSU may be forced to drop football altogether.

 

This could be the WAC’s swan song as a football league.  At least three teams figure to compete for the conference championship, where only one team is guaranteed a bowl bid, while two other bowls have secondary agreements with the league.

 

The WAC has two official pre-season polls, one by the coaches and one by the media.

 

	Coaches’ Poll	Votes
Rank	Team	1st Place	Total
1	Louisiana Tech	6	36
2	Utah State	1	31
3	San Jose State	0	24
4	New Mexico State	0	22
5	Idaho	0	17
6	Texas State	0	10
7	U T S A	0	7
	Media Poll	Votes
Rank	Team	1st Place	Total
1	Louisiana Tech	25	193
2	Utah State	3	164
3	San Jose State	0	130
4	Idaho	0	102
5	New Mexico State	0	95
6	Texas State	0	57
7	U T S A	0	43

 

The PiRate Ratings and the PiRate Vintage Ratings are similar to the official polls.

 

PiRate Ratings
Rank	Team	PiRate
1	Louisiana Tech	101.1
2	Utah State	91.3
3	San Jose State	87.6
4	Idaho	80.8
5	New Mexico State	75.9
6	U T S A	74.1
7	Texas State	73.6
Vintage Ratings
Rank	Team	Vintage
1	Louisiana Tech	101
2	Utah State	96
3	San Jose State	95
4	Idaho	91
5	Texas State	83
6	New Mexico State	81
7	U T S A	77

 

 

Team	Idaho Vandals
Head Coach	Robb Akey
Colors	Black and Gold
City	Moscow, ID
2011 Record
Conference	1-6
Overall	2-10
PiRate Rating	80.8
National Rank	112
Vintage Rating	91.0
National Rank	101
2012 Prediction
Conference	4-2
Overall	5-7

 

It was a rough season for the Vandals in 2011, as they crashed to the basement.  Idaho’s defense could not get off the field, surrendering nearly 75 plays per game.  The Vandals gave up almost 280 passing yards per game and 160 rushing yards per game.

 

Idaho returns five starters to this defense, but we expect the Vandals to be improved on this side of the ball this year.  The secondary should see the most improvement for two reasons.  First, two promising pass defenders return for their senior seasons, and second, the schedule is much easier in 2012.

 

Those two aforementioned secondary stars are cornerback Aaron Grymes and safety Gary Walker.  The two combined for 11 passes defended last year, and that number will head north this season.

 

The front seven is about on par with last year, but the easier schedule will make their numbers improve as well.

 

Offensively, Idaho is strong at receiver with the return of wideout Mike Scott, who caught 55 passes for close to 700 yards last year. 

 

Coach Robb Akey recently named University of Washington transfer Dominique Blackman as his starting quarterback, and Blackman should be an upgrade at this position.  Look for him to top 3,000 passing yards this year.  The big and bulky left-hander will benefit from having quality pass blockers on his right (blind) side.

 

The running game is a question mark at this time, since projected starter Ryan Bass is dealing with academic issues and is not currently practicing. 

 

Idaho must face Louisiana Tech and Utah State on the road this year, but the Vandals should be competitive in the rest of their conference games.  The out-of-conference schedule is a bit too difficult to give them a chance to post a winning season, but Idaho will definitely finish with a better record this year.

 

 

Team	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Head Coach	Sonny Dykes
Colors	Red and Blue
City	Ruston, LA
2011 Record
Conference	6-1
Overall	8-5
PiRate Rating	101.1
National Rank	57
Vintage Rating	101.0
National Rank	61
2012 Prediction
Conference	6-0
Overall	8-4

 

Sonny Dykes is probably in the last year or two of his tenure in Ruston.  The Bulldog head coach will be on multiple schools’ short list when coaching vacancies occur.  The son of former Texas Tech coach Spike Dykes, who was an assistant in Lubbock to Mike Leach, has taken the LT offense and produced spectacular results with the spread passing game.  Tech has increased their passing yardage by around 30 yards per game both seasons under Dykes’ tutelage.  With the league’s best quarterback throwing to the league’s best receivers, the Bulldogs could easily improve by 30 yards per game again in 2012.

 

Colby Cameron became the starting quarterback just past the midway point in the season, and he guided the Bulldogs to six consecutive victories and the WAC championship.  He completed just 55% of his passes, but he tended to throw deeper passes and produced more than 14 yards per completion with a TD/Int ratio of 13/3.

 

Quinton Patton finished second in the WAC with 1,202 receiving yards.  He averaged better than 15 yards per reception and scored 11 touchdowns.  Tulane transfer D. J. Banks should be an excellent possession receiver, and he will get open in the short routes and help Cameron bring up his completion percentage.

 

The running game will not appear on any leaderboards, but the Bulldogs rarely see defenses that concentrate on trying to stop the running game first.  The loss of former Tennessee transfer Lennon Creer will be hard to make up, but the LT offense will not succeed or fail because of the running game.

 

There are some questions on the defensive side of the ball, and thus, the Bulldogs will not be a solid lock to run away with the 2012 WAC title.

 

The front six (LT deploys a 4-2-5 defense) is vulnerable with the loss of four starters from a year ago including two linebackers with more than 100 tackles apiece. 

 

The secondary is in a little better shape with the best tandem of safeties in the league in Chad Boyd and Jamel Johnson.

 

Tech hosts Utah State on November 17 and closes out the season at San Jose State a week later.  Those two games should decide the 2012 WAC championship, and we believe the Bulldogs are the favorite. 

 

 

Team	New Mexico State Aggies
Head Coach	DeWayne Walker
Colors	Crimson and White
City	Las Cruces, NM
2011 Record
Conference	2-5
Overall	4-9
PiRate Rating	75.9
National Rank	116
Vintage Rating	81.0
National Rank	120
2012 Prediction
Conference	1-5
Overall	3-9

 

Football in the state of New Mexico has taken a turn for the worse in the last few years, as neither FBS school in the Land of Enchantment has competed in recent years.  It has been nine seasons since the Aggies last finished above .500, and it has been 52 seasons since they last appeared in a bowl.  The Aggies could very well be looking at the possibility of dropping scholarship football if they cannot find a conference next year, and this news has not helped an already weak recruiting effort.

 

Coach DeWayne Walker had to rely on the junior college route to try to restock his depleted troops, bringing in a baker’s dozen from the Juco ranks.

 

If he can avoid further injury, quarterback Andrew Manley can move the State offense.  Prior to a season-ending knee injury, he had led the Aggies to an upset win over Minnesota.  He will be burdened with a depleted running back corps, and one of the new Juco players, Akeelie Mustafa, will be called on for immediate support.   

 

Manley has some talent to aim his aerials toward this season.  Kemonte’ Bateman and Austin Franklin form the nucleus of the receiving corps.  It could be even better if the coach’s son, Kevan Walker, can return from a knee injury.  This unit may not have flashy stars, but is has depth.  If NMSU is to challenge for a move out of the lower half of the standings, this receiving corps must live up to its potential.

 

The only good thing to say about the running game is that it is not the running game of the Hal Mumme era.  Looking at it that way is the only way to put a good spin on a running game that struggled last year and lost its top two rushers.

 

The defense faces a major rebuilding job, which may not be such a bad thing.  The Aggies surrendered 37 points and better than 460 yards per game in 2011, and there is nowhere to go but up.  Expect a lot of the Jucos to move into the starting lineup, and when combined with an easier schedule, this should make the defensive numbers a little more respectable in 2012, especially in the trenches.  Expect Kalvin Cruz to contend for all-conference honors, with Nicholas Oliva and Kevin Laudermill contributing to an improved defense against the run and pass rush.

 

There are six winnable games on the 2012 schedule, but we still see the Aggies coming up short.  A loss at Texas State in the finale could be a finale in more ways than one.  If it isn’t the last Aggie game as a member of the FBS, it could be Walker’s last as head coach.

 

 

Team	San Jose State Spartans
Head Coach	Mike MacIntyre
Colors	Dark Blue and Gold
City	San Jose, CA
2011 Record
Conference	3-4
Overall	5-7
PiRate Rating	87.6
National Rank	102
Vintage Rating	95.0
National Rank	85
2012 Prediction
Conference	4-2
Overall	6-6

 

 

The Spartans are a good quarterback away from contending for the WAC championship in 2012.  Third year coach Mike MacIntyre has recruited well, and his Spartans have a chance to become bowl eligible in year three.

 

MacIntyre may have found his good quarterback in Nevada transfer David Fales.  Fales has size and talent to withstand hard pass rushes and pass with poise. 

 

Fales will have help in the backfield this year with the emergence of former Minnesota running back De’Leon Eskridge and Juco standout Alvin Jelks.  Look for the Spartans rushing statistics to improve this year despite the loss of their leading 2011 rusher.

 

The receiving corps is second best in the league and returns the top four pass catchers from a year ago.  Tight end Ryan Otten will earn a paycheck to play football in 2013, and we expect him to surpass his totals of 52 receptions and 739 yards this season.  Jabari Carr is the key to this unit.  The speedy wideout needs to improve on his 33 receptions of a year ago; Carr has the ability to make short passes become long gains.

 

The SJSU defense gave up better than 30 points and 400 yards per game for the third consecutive year last season, and the Spartans could make that four in a row this season.  However, giving up 30 points could still allow the team to compete in this league.

 

While six starters have departed from last year, the top three tacklers return.  Defensive end Travis Johnson is a sack monster, who missed out on the WAC sack leadership by just one.  James Orth returns to the secondary after picking off four passes in 2011.  Keith Smith is a quality linebacker capable of leading the league in tackles.

 

The WAC championship should be decided by the outcomes of three games this year.  If the Spartans can defeat both Utah State and Louisiana Tech, they can emerge as the surprise league champions.  San Jose hosts both conference contenders.  This team may still be a year away from contending, but this is their last chance in the WAC.  It will be much more difficult to compete in the Mountain West next year.

 

Team	Texas State Bobcats
Head Coach	Dennis Franchione
Colors	Maroon and Old Gold
City	San Marcos, TX
2011 Record
Conference	0-0
Overall	6-6 (as FCS Independent)
PiRate Rating	73.6
National Rank	121
Vintage Rating	83.0
National Rank	118
2012 Prediction
Conference	2-4
Overall	3-9

 

After five seasons out of the major college ranks, Dennis Franchione gets another chance to pilot a FBS team as the Bobcats make their debut on the big stage.  Franchione guided Texas State to a 6-6 finish as a FCS independent last year, but in the two games played against FBS opponents, State lost by a combined 95-20.  Expect the Bobcats to take their lumps this season.

 

Shaun Rutherford once teamed with Cam Newton in junior college.  The senior quarterback will not emulate his former teammate at this level, but he gives the Bobcats a chance to compete offensively in the WAC.  A good year from Rutherford would produce about 500 rushing yards and 2,000 passing yards.

 

Franchione can call on some quality depth to anchor his running game.  Texas State is one of the handful of run first teams, and Coach Fran has his full complement of backs returning from 2011.  Marcus Curry and Terrence Franks should get the bulk of the carries, as State looks to run the ball about 45 times per game.

 

The one possible weak spot of the offense is an inexperienced offensive line that must replace three starters.  It is also undersized for this level of football, as the five projected starters average about 275 pounds.

 

The Texas State defense surrendered 400 yards and 28.5 points per game against mostly FCS competition last year.  In the two games against FBS opposition (Texas Tech and Wyoming), the Bobcats gave up a very generous 1,123 yards (561.5 avg), yielding 6.5 yards per enemy rush and 8.6 yards per pass attempt.

 

While most of last year’s starters return to the defensive side, do not expect much improvement with a schedule that goes from two FBS opponents to 11.  Cornerback Darryl Morris and safety Xavier Daniels should finish one-two in tackles, and that never bodes well for a defense, as a linebacker should lead the team in stops.

 

The one place where Texas State takes a back seat to nobody is in the kicking game.  Kicker Will Johnson is both accurate and long.

 

Texas State has just one “gimme” game on the schedule when they host Stephen F. Austin.  The game against new rival UTSA is in San Antonio.  The Bobcats also play both of the weak New Mexico teams and host Idaho, so Coach Fran’s troops have a chance to compete in five games this year.  We expect them to win two or three games.

 

 

Team	Utah State Aggies
Head Coach	Gary Andersen
Colors	Navy and White
City	Logan, UT
2011 Record
Conference	5-2
Overall	7-6
PiRate Rating	91.3
National Rank	92
Vintage Rating	96.0
National Rank	78
2012 Prediction
Conference	4-2
Overall	7-5

 

At times last year, Utah State was the clear-cut best team in the WAC.  The Aggies opened the season by showing up the defending national champion Auburn Tigers at Jordan Hare Stadium for about 53 minutes of the game.  A couple weeks later, they took BYU to the final gun.  They followed that up with a dismantling of a Wyoming team that would win eight games, and in November, they upset Nevada.  Untimely turnovers ruined USU’s chances of winning the WAC in 2011, but the Aggies have another chance in the league’s swan song.  Utah State has almost the same amount of quality talent as Louisiana Tech, but the big game against the Bulldogs is on the road this season.

 

Coach Gary Andersen saw his offense greatly improve last year thanks to a devastating rushing attack.  Except for the three schools that run the 21^st century version of the wishbone (Army, Navy, Georgia Tech), Utah State had the best running attack of the non regular and triple option teams.  The Aggies rushed for 283 yards per game at nearly six yards per attempt last year, but the two men chiefly responsible for that output are no longer around.  Leading rusher Robert Turbin is now a Seattle Seahawk after he led the WAC with 19 rushing touchdowns and finished second with 1,517 yards.

 

Expect a major drop-off in running numbers this season, as the expected tandem of Kerwynn Williams and Joe Hill are not as good as what USU had last year.  

 

The Aggies will make up for the weaker ground game with a much better passing game this year.  Sophomore quarterback Chuckie Keeton could see his passing yardage more than double in his second season in Logan.  He completed 61% of his passes with a 12/2 TD/Int ratio last year.

 

Keeton has three exceptional targets in receivers Chuck Jacobs, Matt Austin, and Cameron Webb.  Look for Webb to have a breakout season this year.

 

The offensive line is one of the best in the league, led by NFL prospect Tyler Larsen at center.

 

The Aggies enjoyed their first winning record in more than a decade because the defense improved by six points and 60 yards per game last year.  Teams could no longer run the ball down USU’s throats.  Expect more of the same in 2012, as all three defensive units should be somewhat improved.

 

The strength of this defense is a fabulous secondary led by two potential All-WAC Cornerbacks and a speedy safety.  Nevin Lawson and Jumaine Robinson teamed for 23 passes defended, while McKade Brady kept opposing offenses from getting long gains.

 

The non-conference schedule presents some tough challenges again for the Aggies with games against in-state rivals Utah and BYU combined with a trip to Madison, Wisconsin, to take on the Badgers.  An easier league slate should allow Utah State to finish on the plus side of .500 again.  And, if the Aggies can win their two biggest conference games on the road against Louisiana Tech and San Jose State, they will claim the final WAC championship.  They figure to be underdogs in both big games. 

 

 

Team	Texas-San Antonio
Head Coach	Larry Coker
Colors	Orange and Blue
City	San Antonio
2011 Record
Conference	0-0
Overall	4-6 (as FCS Independent)
PiRate Rating	74.1
National Rank	120
Vintage Rating	77.0
National Rank	124
2012 Prediction
Conference	1-5
Overall	3-9

 

It is a far cry from a decade ago for Coach Larry Coker.  The former Miami of Florida coach won a national championship in Coral Gables with one of the most dominating teams in modern football.  He returns to FBS football with a team that lost to McMurry, Southern Utah, Sam Houston, UC Davis, and McNeese State last year and played no FBS teams.

 

The Roadrunners will be more talented this season, as practically every letterman that contributed returns this year.  Only two starters from the 22 first teamers are gone, and there are still very few seniors on this roster, as this is just the second season of football in San Antonio.

 

It is difficult to gauge how good the returning talent is, since UTSA played no FBS opponents in their first year of organized football.  Coker expects to employ a two-quarterback system this year with returning starter Eric Soza and junior college transfer Tucker Carter splitting the reps.  Soza, the better runner, completed 56% of his passes last year but threw nine interceptions or about one pick for every 34 pass attempts.  Carter put up some gaudy stats in junior college, and he is the stronger passer.

 

The top unit on the offense is the receiving corps.  Tight ends Jeremiah Moeller and Cole Hubbell and wideouts Brandon Freeman, Kenny Harrison, and Kam Jones will provide the quarterbacks with multiple options on passing plays.

 

UTSA will use a 4-2-5 defense, and the strength is at linebacker, where Steven Kurfehs and Bradon Reeves combined for 130 stops, 12 ½ behind the line.

 

UTSA will play a weak non-conference schedule, which will give the Roadrunners a chance to win two or three games.  However, even in the much weaker WAC, UTSA will be lucky to win one time.

 

Coming Sunday, August 19: A look at the Mid-American Conference, a quarterback-rich league in 2012.

2011 Western Athletic Conference Preview

2011 Western Athletic Conference Preview

 

The WAC as we know it has been victimized by the Mountain West Conference.  In a move akin to the American League East losing the New York Yankees, the MWC stole Boise State.  Next year, Nevada, Hawaii, and Fresno State will join the Broncos in the Mountain West, leaving this conference a mere shell of itself.  The future of this league is in serious jeopardy, and the addition of two new teams to FBS football in 2012 (Texas State and Texas-San Antonio, may not be enough to save this league.

 

Without Boise State, the WAC race will be more open this season.  Four teams have the talent to contend for the conference championship, while a fifth has the capability of finishing over .500.

 

Nevada finished in a three-way tie for first with Boise State and Hawaii, and the Wolf Pack finished #11 in the final poll.  Gone from the school’s best ever team are stellar quarterback Colin Kaepernick, the WAC’s leading rusher Vai Taua, receiver Virgil Green, 1^st Team All-WAC tackle Jose Acuna and four of the top tacklers.

 

All is not gloomy in the biggest little town in America.  Coach Chris Ault will simply reload rather than rebuild, and with the absence of a blue turf in league play, Nevada will contend for a second consecutive WAC title.  

 

Tyler Lantrip is not the runner Kaepernick was, but he has a better arm.  Lantrip should pass for more yards this year than Kaepernick did last year (3,022).  He will get a Baptism under fire when the Wolf Pack play their first four games away from Reno.

 

Mike Ball is the new tailback in the Pistol Offense. Ball has speed and quickness to excel in this offense.  He averaged 6.8 yards per carry last year in limited action.  Lampford Mark will get his shares of touches and could challenge for a starting bid.

 

The top receiver in the WAC this year will be Rishard Matthews.  He may not lead in catches or yards, because those stats belong to Hawaii receivers, but Matthews is the best at his position.  The former Oregon recruit led Nevada with 56 receptions and averaged 15.7 yards per catch.  The unexpected loss of Brandon Wimberly, who was shot in the off-season, will force Matthews to face more double teams and combo defenses.

 

The offense will click because the blocking corps is the best in the league.  Junior Chris Barker is the best guard in the league, while center Jeff Meads is one of three really good snappers in the WAC.

 

Nevada averaged 41 points and 519 yards per game last year.  Those numbers will decline a little this year.  The Wolf Pack will not be able to move up and down the field at will, but in the new WAC, they can win the title with a 35 point and 450 yard performance.

 

Nevada’s defense was just as responsible for last year’s title run as the offense.  It surrendered just 21 points per game in a league where 28 points was average.  Seven starters return, including three with all-star accolades in 2010.

 

Up front, tackle Brett Roy is poised to contend for 1^st Team All-WAC honors.  He introduced enemy QBs to the turf eight times last year.  The loss of 3^rd round draft pick Dontay Moch will hurt.

 

Middle linebacker James-Michael Johnson should repeat as a 1^st Team All-WAC defender.  He led the Pack with 88 tackles last year.  In the back line of defense, Isaiah Frey is one of the best cover corners in the league.  He batted away 14 passes and picked off another last year.

 

The non-conference schedule is tough this year.  Nevada opens at Oregon and plays at Texas Tech and at Boise State, all in the first four games.  The schedule gets easier from there with home games against rival UNLV and helpless New Mexico.  In WAC play, Nevada hosts the other three contenders, and this should help the Wolf Pack claim another conference championship.

 

Hawaii recovered from a subpar 2009 with a 10-win season last year.  Once again, it was an aerial circus on the island, as the Warriors averaged 394 yards through the air to lead the nation.  The Run ‘n’ Shoot offense took a major hit with the loss of eight starters, but we would be surprised if Hawaii did not average more than 300 passing yards again this season.

 

One of those trio of returnees is quarterback Bryant Moniz.  Moniz topped 5,000 passing yards last year and threw 39 touchdown passes.  He tends to hold onto the ball a little longer than an average run ‘n’ shoot passer, and he went down 40 times last year, seven against Boise State in the lone game that UH failed to score in double digits.

 

Moniz lost his top two receivers, and they combined for 207 receptions and almost 3,200 yards.  Royce Pollard will be the new 100+-reception receiver for the Warriors.  There are questions at the other receiver positions, as two players figured to be starters are ailing and missing practice.

 

As pass happy as Hawaii is, they still run the ball with authority.  Alex Green rushed for almost 1,200 yards last year, but he must be replaced.  Sterling Jackson will be the new starter, but he lacks the speed and quickness of Green.  He will be more of a between the tackles pounder.

 

The offensive line was above average but not great last year, and four starters have used up their eligibility, including the two best blockers.  It will take a few weeks for the newly rebuilt line to come together, so Moniz may be facing a lot more pressure than last year.

 

The Warriors never get much credit for their defensive play.  They gave up a respectable 25.5 yards per game last year, only 20 in league play.  Coach Greg McMackin believes in aggressive attacking defenses, and he has the players to cause a lot of disruption to enemy offenses.

 

The front seven is the best in the WAC by far, and Hawaii should lead the conference in sacks and in lowest rushing average allowed.  Up front, tackles Vaughn Meatoga and Kaniela Tuipulotu are the best tandem in the conference.  Few teams will find success running line plunges up the gut against Hawaii.

 

The Warriors make hay at the linebacker position with multi-tool players.  Corey Paredes is a WAC Player of the Year candidate.  He led the conference with 151 stops, and he picked off four enemy passes last year while knocking away five others.  Aaron Brown is another linebacker who is strong against both the run and pass.

 

The back line of defense is the vulnerable unit on this side of the ball.  The two starters lost combined for 12 interceptions and 27 total passes defended.  Safety Richard Torres will need to step up and break out with a big year.

 

As usual, Hawaii plays a 13-game schedule, which means they will play six non-conference games this year.  The Warriors should beat UNLV, UC-Davis, and Tulane.  The opener against Colorado is a toss-up, but we believe Hawaii will have several intangible factors in their favor in this one.  Games with Washington and BYU should be losses.  The Warriors will only need to go 3-4 in the league to get back to the Hawaii Bowl.  They could double that amount.

 

Louisiana Tech is not far away from being a serious title contender.  Second year head coach Sonny Dykes has not been able to fully implement his version of Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense.  He believes the Bulldogs are ready to start making the offense click.

 

If the offense is going to start putting up numbers similar to Texas Tech in the Leach years. New quarterback Colby Cameron is going to have to improve by a great amount.  Last year, in limited action, Cameron could not complete longer passes, unless you count the high percentage of passes completed to the wrong colored jersey.  He ended up with five picks in just 91 attempts.

 

The Bulldogs took a hit with the dismissal of projected starting receiver Ahmad Paige and Tim Molton.  The Bulldogs still have their two leading receivers from last year; Taulib Ikharo and Richie Casey combined for 92 receptions and 962 yards.

 

Lennon Creer is another pass catching threat coming out of the backfield.  He caught 25 passes last year, but his running acumen is what made him a 2^nd Team All-WAC performer.  He gained 1,181 yards and scored 10 touchdowns.

 

The offensive line is not the best in the league, but it is not far from it.  The Bulldogs will be nearly lethal inside with excellent guards Kevin Saia and Oscar Johnson (Saia is nursing an injury) and center Stephen Warner.

 

Will this be the year LT breaks out with scary offensive numbers?  Probably not, but their numbers will head north.  Call it 270 passing yards and 425+ total yards with a scoring average of 30-32 points per game.

 

If the Bulldogs are to make an unexpected run for the conference title and earn a bowl bid for the first time in four seasons, their defense must improve.  Tech gave up 31 points and 460+ yards per game in 2010.

 

One area where there will be improvement is up front in the trenches.  The Bulldogs have an excellent pair of ends in Matt Broha and IK Enemkpali.  Broha has developed into a great pass rusher and led LT with nine sacks last year. 

 

Two starters return to the second line of defense.  Linebackers Jay Dudley and Adrien Cole combined for 174 tackles but only 6 ½ for minus yardage.  This number needs to go up, for it will not help improve the defense if too many of those tackles come at the end of five yard gains.

 

The secondary is loaded with depth, and this should be the unit that shows the greatest improvement in 2011.  Look for more interceptions and passes defended this season. 

 

Louisiana Tech hosts Hawaii, so the Bulldogs will play a 12-game schedule.  Four of their five non-conference games will be tough to win, so the Bulldogs will need five conference wins at the least to become bowl eligible.  They are capable of achieving that feat this year.  

 

Fresno State has been so good for so long, it is hard to believe the Bulldogs have never won the WAC.  You have to go back to the days of the old Big West Conference to find FSU’s last title, when the Bulldogs finished 11-1-0 and clobbered Ball State in the old California Bowl.

 

The WAC is down, so Fresno State will benefit, because this will not be Coach Pat Hill’s best Bulldog team.  Too many good players are missing from both sides of the ball.  One of those is quarterback Ryan Colburn, who completed better than 63% of his passes with a 23/9 TD/Int ratio last year.  The new QB has a familiar name on campus.  Derek Carr is the younger brother of former FSU great David.  Carr has five games of experience from 2009, but he missed all of last season.  Look for Carr to struggle early but begin to live up to his family name as the season progresses.

 

Running back Robbie Rouse returns after enjoying a big season in 2010.  He rushed for 1,129 yards and eight scores.  Former UCLA Bruin Milton Knox should see some action as well.

 

Jalen Saunders is the best FSU has at the receiver position, but he is not a threat to crack the 1^st or 2^nd team all-conference roster.  Saunders caught 30 passes and scored three times.

 

The offensive line is not a team strength.  It could actually be the weakest in the league.  Two starters return, and the three that departed were all-league players.  Expect a considerable retreat in sacks allowed and rushing yards per carry this year.

 

The defense gave up 30 points per game last year, but the Bulldogs allowed just 367 total yards per game.  Their 37 sacks topped the league charts, as Bulldog players finished one-two in the league.  One of those players returns this season.  Tackle Logan Harrell is back after recording 10 ½ sacks and 14 total tackles for loss.    Three new starters will line up in the trenches, so Harrell will see more double team blocks this year.

 

Travis Brown and Kyle Knox are back to wreak havoc from their linebacker positions.  The two teamed up for 153 tackles last year.

 

There are some concerns in the secondary, and if the pass rush is not as good as last year, it will be exploited.  Free safety Phillip Thomas is the star of this unit.  He intercepted three passes and knocked away nine others.

 

Fresno State has a 13-game schedule since they play at Hawaii.  It will be difficult to match last year’s eight wins, but the Bulldogs have a chance to compete in the weaker WAC.  We still see this team becoming bowl eligible.

 

San Jose State has fallen on hard times in the last two seasons, finishing 2-10 and 1-12.  Second year coach Mike MacIntyre has a lot of experience returning from a team that took its lumps early but became much more competitive in the second half of the season.  With 18 starters returning, we see the Spartans could win more games in 2011 than they won in 2009 and 2010 combined.

 

The big bugaboo is at the most important position on the team.  As of this writing in mid-August, MacIntyre has yet to choose a starter, or even a leader of the pack, from among three candidates.  Senior Matt Faulkner has limited experience, but that limited experience is the most on the squad.  Contending with Faulkner are sophomore Dasmen Stewart and redshirt freshman Blake Jurich.  Too bad former Michigan starter Tate Forcier will not be eligible until 2012.

 

SJSU has a nice stable of receivers, and if a quarterback can emerge and at least be decent, this unit could shine in 2011.  Noel Grigsby is a breakaway threat.  He can get open deep and has good hands.  The sophomore could emerge as a 1^st Team All-WAC player.

 

The running game has been nonexistent for four years, as the Spartans have averaged 84, 87, 77, and 79 yards per game and less than three yards per carry.  Starter Brandon Rutley had one big run as a freshman when he broke free for a long touchdown against Boise State.  He has yet to show any flashes since then.  Actually, Rutley has been a better pass receiver than runner.  He did break off a long breakaway with a reception last year.  

 

The offensive line will be improved this season, but it will still be an overall liability.  Tackle Andres Vargas is the best of the quintet.

 

SJSU averaged just 16 points per game last year, but in four of their final five games, they averaged better than 30 points per game.  We see the Spartans scoring about 23-25 points per game this year.

 

The good news is that more than 11 (several saw more than 6 starts) defensive starters return in 2011; the bad news is that those starters were not all that good last year, as SJSU surrendered 464 yards per game (502 in league play) and nearly 35 points per game.

 

All joking aside, this defense will be much better this season.  In fact, the Spartans could easily shave 100 yards off what they allowed in WAC games.  It isn’t impossible that they could go from last to first in yards allowed!

 

Start in the secondary, where the four holdovers just might make up the best unit in the league.  The name “Peyton” is an important name in football, and SJSU has one of their own.  Peyton Thompson is the top cover corner in the league.  In 2010, he recorded 12 passes defended, and quarterbacks tended to throw away from him.  Safety Duke Ihenacho missed all of last year, but he should regain his starting job after earning 1^st Team All-WAC honors in 2009.

 

The secondary will benefit from an improved pass rush this year.  End Travis Johnson led the Spartans with 7 ½ sacks as well as four QB hurries.  He leads a two-deep of experienced players in the trenches.

 

The second line of defense features the reigning WAC Freshman of the Year.  Keith Smith earned that award after leading the Spartans with 116 tackles and 14 tackles for loss.  

 

San Jose State starts off the season with three tough games, and the Spartans will begin in an 0-3 hole after facing Stanford, UCLA, and Nevada.  Road games with Colorado State and BYU will leave SJSU at no better than 1-5, so 2011 will not be the year the Spartans get back to the plus side of .500.  They can win three or four games though.

 

Utah State has endured losing season after losing season with false expectations of an end to that skein.  Last year looked like ‘the year” when the Aggies upset BYU to open the season 3-2.  A 1-6 finish doomed them to yet another sub-.500 year, as the offense failed to ignite.

 

Coach Gary Andersen will choose between Adam Kennedy and Chuckie Keeton as his starting quarterback.  Thus far, neither has emerged as a primetime player.  The Aggies had poor play at this position last year, so it will not take much to surpass the production of 2010.

 

The rest of the skilled positions are in good shape.  Former all-conference running back Robert Turbin missed last season with an ACL injury, but he appears to be ready to pound his way through defenses.  He rushed for almost 1,300 yards two years ago.

 

Seven of the top eight pass catchers are back for more this year, but it’s the return of two 2009 starters that missed last season that will make this unit much better this season.  Stanley Morrison could top 1,000 receiving yards.

 

The offensive line returns four starters and will be the best this unit has been under Andersen.  Center Tyler Larsen and guards Fuanki Asisi and Philip Gapelu will contend for some all-conference recognition.  Larsen made the 2^nd Team Freshman All-American Team last year.

 

Utah State should improve its offensive number back to where they were prior to all the 2010 injuries.  We believe the Aggies could top 27 points and 380 yards per game.

 

Unfortunately, the outlook on the other side of the ball is a bit gloomy.  USU is a little suspect in the front line and only average in the secondary.  One area that will be a team strength is the linebacker position.  Bobby Wagner and Kyle Gallagher are studs.  Wagner is on NFL scouts’ radar.  He led USU with 135 tackles including eight for losses.

 

The secondary took a major graduation hit, but it returns its top player in safety Walter McClenton.  McClenton made 62 tackles, but Andersen would like to see him make less this year; too many of those tackles came about because opposing teams had already defeated the other 10 defenders on the field.

 

Up front, The Aggies were abysmal in 2010.  They recorded just 13 sacks and allowed opposing backs to gain five yards per carry.  Ends Quinn Garner and Levi Koshan are the lone holdovers from the two-deep, and Andersen is switching to a 3-4 defense to try to disguise this weakness.

 

USU surrendered 34 points and 430 yards per game last year.  We do not see much improvement if any this year.  To make matters worse, the Aggies lose both their punter and place kicker from last year.

 

The schedule includes non-league tilts against defending champ Auburn, BYU, and Wyoming.  Unfortunately, the easiest conference opponents, Idaho and New Mexico State, must be faced on the road.  It looks like another long year in Logan.

 

Idaho took a step back last year after earning and winning the most exciting bowl game of 2009.  The Vandals could be looking at a major rebuilding project on the attack side of the ball with the departure of quarterback Nathan Enderle and three of the top four receivers.  However, there is cautious optimism that the newcomers are as talented as those they will replace.

 

The new signal caller is senior Brian Reader.  Reader looked sharp in limited action last year and appears to be primed to equal Enderle’s production.

 

Reader’s passing targets are not the most talented players in the league, but there are a lot of options.  Preston Davis figures to be much improved now that he is fully recovered from an ACL injury in 2010.  Walk-on junior college transfer Mike Scott could emerge as a key contributor.

 

The running game did not show much in 2010, and it will be a liability again this year.  Four backs should split time at this spot, led by former Arizona State Sun Devil Ryan Bass and Kama Bailey.

 

The offensive line is strongest at the terminals, where Matt Cleveland and Tyrone Novikoff are big and strong.  Cleveland should contend for 1^st Team All-WAC honors.

 

Idaho averaged 27 points last year, and we expect the Vandals to replicate that number this season. 

 

Even though the Vandals fell from 8-5 to 6-7 last year, the defense showed great improvement, shaving almost eight points off their average allowed.  Some of that had to do with an improved turnover margin.  The news is not all that good on this side of the ball.  UI was going to be strong at linebacker, but their top player, Robert Siavii suffered a season-ending knee injury in Spring practice.

 

The Vandals will rally around middle linebacker TreShawn Robinson, who recorded 10 total tackles for loss last year.  Homer Mauga returns to start at the other linebacker spot.

 

Up front, Idaho had a strong pass rush last year, but the chief instigator of mayhem is gone.  Aaron Lavarias departs after leading the team with 10 sacks.  Tackle Michael Cosgrove is the best of the holdovers.

 

The secondary returns three 2010 starters, but none of the trio figures to make 1^st Team All-WAC accolades this year.  If the pass rush is weaker, this group will be exposed and give up more than 250 passing yards per game.

 

Idaho has a fair schedule.  Non-league games with Texas A&M, Virginia, and BYU figure to be automatic losses.  North Dakota figures to be an easy victory.  The season opener with Bowling Green is a rematch of that great 2009 Humanitarian Bowl, and we consider this game a must-win affair for the Vandals.  If they win, and Reader proves to be as capable as Enderler, this team could make this prediction look silly.  If they lose, then Coach Robb Akey could become achy over his future.

 

New Mexico State has been one of the five weakest teams in FBS football in recent years, but luckily for them, the worst team has been in-state rival New Mexico.  Third year coach DeWayne Walker must show some form of improvement this year, or he could be headed away from the Land of Enchantment.

 

The offense scored 14 or fewer points five times last year and averaged less than 16 for the season.  Former Kent State coach Doug Martin takes over as the new offensive Coordinator.  Martin hopes quarterback Andrew Manley can solve the problem at quarterback.  Manley completed just 52% of his passes with a 1/6 TD/Int ratio last year as a true freshman.  Former starter Matt Christian completed just 48% of his passes but had a much better 8/2 TD/Int ratio.  There is only one way to go for this position.

 

The big problem with the passing game is the receiving corps.  Not only are the top two pass catchers from last year missing, those that are returning do not offer much in the area of quickness or mobility.  Taveon Rogers is the closest thing to a star, and he only caught 18 balls last year.  Juco Transfer Kemonte Bateman could emerge as the leader here.

 

Robert Clay figures to start at running back with 2010 leading rusher Kenny Turner at H-back.  The tandem rushed for just 687 yards and two touchdowns.

 

The one bright spot on the offense is an experienced and improving offensive line.  Sioeli Fakalata can play center or guard, and he is the best man in the front line.

 

The Aggies should see improved numbers all around this season.  Look for about 21 points and 325 yards.  However, that will not be enough to move them out of the WAC basement.

 

The defense figures to take another step backwards after giving up 40 points and 450+ yards per game last year.  It doesn’t help when two of your top players are declared academically ineligible.  Those two, tackle Augafa Vaaulu and end Donte Savage figured to be the stars of the front four.  Now, the Aggies are hurting in the trenches.

 

The linebackers are more of a liability than an asset, even though two starters return from last season.  B. J. Adolpho was a 3^rd Team All-WAC player last year, but he cannot make plays for the other six players in the front seven.

 

Any hope for defensive improvement must come from the secondary.  We fear that with little or no pass rush, the back four will eventually break down and give up too many big plays.  The Aggies may have the best tandem at cornerback with Donyae Coleman and Jonte Green.  Last year, the pair teamed for 166 tackles, many times being the last hope to prevent breakaway plays.

 

Things do not look hopeful for Walker and his Aggies.  At least they have a game with New Mexico, but that is not a given win.  Even though NMSU’s offense is much improved, they will not be able to outscore the other teams in the WAC.  It will be another long year in Las Cruces.

 

2011 WAC Preseason Media Poll
Team	1st Place Votes	Points
Hawaii	18	292
Fresno State	11	284
Nevada	11	264
Lousiana Tech		184
Utah State		166
Idaho		141
San Jose State		85
New Mexico State		60

 

 

2011 WAC PiRate Ratings
Team	PiRate #	Prediction
Nevada	101.4	7-1/8-4
Hawaii	98.4	5-3/8-5
Louisiana Tech	93.5	5-3/5-7
Fresno State	93.0	6-2/7-6
San Jose State	91.1	2-6/2-10
Utah State	90.2	2-6/3-9
Idaho	88.2	4-4/5-7
New Mexico State	78.8	1-7/1-11

 

Next: A look at the four independents, Friday, August 19

 

2010 Western Athletic Conference Preview

Go to www.piratings.webs.com where we beat the spread 60.4% in 2009!

 

2010 Western Athletic Conference Preview

 

No team has dominated a conference for an entire decade the way Boise State has dominated the WAC since Alabama toyed with the SEC for 10 years after Bear Bryant went to the wishbone.  The Broncos last eight years in conference play have produced a league mark of 62-2!  Things will change next year, when BSU moves to the Mountain West.  It appears impossible for the Broncos to top last year’s 14-0 record, but this year’s team might be considerably stronger.

Nevada is the clear-cut second best team, and Fresno State is the clear-cut third best team.  After those two, there are three teams that are equally mediocre and three teams that will be fodder for the top six.  With Boise primed to make a run for a National Championship, there is a legitimate possibility that there will not be enough bowl eligible teams for the allotted bowl spots.

Note: The PiRate Ratings are not meant to be used to predict the outcome of future games.  They are usable only as a basis for the current week’s games.  We do not use these ratings to make our selections.  They are only a starting point.  The predictions given below, as for every college conference and NFL division, are not taken from the ratings themselves.

Predictions

Pos	Team	WAC	Overall
1	Boise State	8-0	12-0
2	Nevada	7-1	10-3
3	Fresno State	6-2	9-3
4	Utah State	4-4	5-7
5	Hawaii	4-4	6-7
6	Louisiana Tech	4-4	5-7
7	Idaho	2-6	3-10
8	New Mexico State	1-7	2-10
9	San Jose State	0-8	2-11

 

BCS Bowl: Boise State (possible National Championship Game)

Humanitarian Bowl: Fresno State

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Nevada

Hawaii Bowl: Will need an at-large team

New Mexico Bowl: Will need and at-large team

 

Hawaii is guaranteed a spot in the Hawaii Bowl if they have seven or more wins.  If not, this bowl gets the third choice after the Humanitarian and Kraft Bowls select.

 

Team By Team Breakdown

 

Team	Boise State Broncos
Head Coach	Chris Petersen
Colors	Blue and Orange
City	Boise, ID
2009 Record
Conference	8-0
Overall	14-0
PiRate Rating	121.7
National Rating	8
2010 Prediction
Conference	8-0
Overall	12-0

 

Offense: Better?  You betcha.  The Broncos return 10 starters on this side of the ball as well as every player that ran the ball and every receiver that caught a pass!

Let’s start with the nation’s number two quarterback in passing efficiency in 2009, trailing only some guy named Tebow.  Kellen Moore made 3^rd Team All-American last year, and he could move up two spots if his team runs the table this year.  We expect him to be making a trip to the Downtown Athletic Club in Manhattan in December.  Moore completed 64.3% of his passes for 3,536 yards.  His TD/Int ration was an astonishing 39/3.  He was a down-the-field passer, so those stats were not inflated by having some speedster frequently turning a two-yard pass into a 65-yard touchdown.

Moore’s only problem may be trying to decide which open receiver to throw the ball.  His top two options are 2009 1^st Team All-WAC Austin Pettus and Titus Young.  Those two combined for 142 receptions and 24 touchdowns.  Tyler Shoemaker is the bruiser of this group, and he can go across the middle and make the tough catch in a sea of defenders.

When Boise runs the ball, they will have a trio of special backs toting the pigskin.  Jeremy Avery ran for more than 1,150 yards, and Doug Martin added 765.  Martin led the ground contingent with 15 touchdowns.  Third back D. J. Harper accounted for just 285 yards, but he is the best breakaway threat of the three.  He averaged 6.5 yards per rush a year ago.

The offensive line returns four starters a year after allowing just five QB sacks, only three after the first game.  The entire second team has some starting experience, so Coach Chris Petersen can feel confident relieving his starters for a series.

Boise State averaged 42.2 points and 450 total yards last year, and those numbers should be eclipsed by this veteran squad.  Look for 45-50 points and 450-475 yards per game this season.

Defense: Now the bad news: Uh, the only bad news is for the rest of the league, because Boise State will be more improved on this side of the ball than on offense!

The Broncos gave up 17 points and 300 yards per game last year, and 10 starters also return on this side of the ball.  Almost the entire second team returns as well, and it would not surprise us to see BSU finish in the top five in both total offense and total defense.  We’re talking 1997 Nebraska-type dominance if that happens.

If there is a liability of any kind with this defense, it is at linebacker.  Boise uses a 4-2-5 defense, and the two linebackers get lost among all the stars on the stop side.  Aaron Tevis and Daron Mackey combined for just 90 stops a year ago, and they were merely above-average players in the WAC.

In the trenches, the Broncos can rely on four experienced upperclassmen, including a sure future NFL (assuming the NFL plays in 2011 or 2012) end.  Ryan Winterswyk made 17 tackles on the other team’s side of the line—nine sacks and eight tackles of runners.  Tackle Billy Wynn is just as potent at causing teams to lose yardage.

The secondary is even stronger this year.  Nickel back Winston Venable is a monster against both the run and the pass, and when he is on the field, opposing teams may think there is more than one #17 running around.  Cornerback Brandyn Thompson and strong safety Jeron Johnson should both make 1^st Team All-WAC after teaming for 10 interceptions last year.

Schedule: It all comes down to the first game of the season.  Boise travels over 2,000 miles across two time zones to face Virginia Tech at the Washington Redskins’ stadium on Monday night, September 6.  The Broncos proved they could beat a BCS conference champion last year when they completely shut down Oregon in the opener.  That game was at home.  If the Broncos beat the Hokies, we don’t see anybody else threatening them.  A home game with Oregon State and a road game against Nevada might be the only other games where they cannot win by three touchdowns or more.  It will be either 1-0 on the way to 12-0 or 0-1 on the way to maybe 10-2.  At 12-0, they would be riding a 26-game winning streak and deserve to go to Glendale, Arizona, on January 10.

Team	Fresno State Bulldogs
Head Coach	Pat Hill
Colors	Cardinal and White
City	Fresno, CA
2009 Record
Conference	6-2
Overall	8-5
PiRate Rating	99.6
National Rating	60
2010 Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	9-3

 

Offense: Fresno State has always fielded exciting, well-balanced offenses under Coach Pat Hill.  This year will be no different.  The Bulldogs may have lost their top player on this side of the ball, but they return eight starters and should have another successful season moving the ball.

It will be hard to replace running back Ryan Mathews after he led the league with more than 1,800 yards rushing and 19 touchdowns.  We expect Robbie Rouse to step in and rush for 1,000+ yards in his first year as a starter.  He showed flashes of brilliance last year in a backup role.

In a league of outstanding quarterbacks, Ryan Colburn rarely gets a mention in the press outside of Fresno.  Colburn is a capable, but not flashy passer.  He completed 61% of his tosses for 2,459 yards last year, but he needs to cut down on his 3.7% interception rate.

The Bulldogs lost three of their top four receivers, but there is good talent left.  Jamel Hamler and Devon Wylie can turn a short pass into a long gain.

The offensive line welcomes back all five starters.  This unit could be a little better than Boise State’s interior line.  Best among this quintet are center Joe Bernardi and tackle Kenny Wiggins, two seniors that should have a chance to play professionally (maybe in Canada).

Fresno State may take a small step backward on this side of the ball, but the Bulldogs will still be an offensive threat in every game.  Look for about 28 points and 400 yards per game.

Defense: FSU surrendered 214 rushing and 200 passing yards last year, and we see that problem continuing in 2010.  The Bulldogs return the majority of their contributors from 2009, but we see only three really good players on this side of the ball.

One of those three is end Chris Carter.  The 1^st Team All-WAC performer accounted for almost half of the team’s sacks (5 out of FSU’s poor 11) and added eight other tackles for loss.  He’s the only star player in the trenches, and he will see double teams on most plays this year.  The Bulldogs gave up a profane six yards per rush last year, so teams will run the ball at them until they can prove they can slow it down.

The second line of defense is much better than the first and considerably better than the unit behind them.  Linebacker Ben Jacobs led FSU with 106 tackles last year, but too many were five or more yards down the field.  Neither he, nor outside linebacker Kyle Knox recorded a sack.

The secondary is pedestrian, but it was hard to cover the WAC’s receivers when there was no pass rush.  Strong safety Lorne Bell earned 2^nd Team All-WAC honors, but he is better in run support than in pass coverage.

Fresno State will give up a lot of points again this season, and it will prevent the Bulldogs from contending with the big two in the league.  Look for 26-30 points and 400-425 yards allowed—about the same as last year.

Schedule: Outside of the WAC, Fresno plays its usual contingent of BCS schools.  This year, they host Cincinnati and Illinois and visit Ole Miss.  They get a breather with FCS member Cal Poly.  Boise State is a road game, and they have no chance in that one.  They get Nevada at home and could sneak up on the Wolf Pack.  6-2 in the league is a strong possibility, and we believe the Bulldogs can upend two of the three BCS conference teams they play.  Call it nine wins and a bowl in 2010.

Team	Hawaii Warriors
Head Coach	Greg McMackin
Colors	Green, Black, and White
City	Honolulu, HI
2009 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	6-7
PiRate Rating	85.0
National Rating	97
2010 Prediction
Conference	4-4
Overall	6-7

 

Offense: Hawaii has once again become a great vacation trip for BCS schools.  Since June Jones left for SMU three years ago, the Warriors have fallen on hard times.  The UH offense went from a 40+ per game juggernaut to a 20-point per game patsy.

Don’t look for any improvement on this side of the ball in 2010.  Coach Greg McMackin has too many holes to fill to expect a better showing.  In fact, things could get worse.  Only five starters return, but only one of them is from the offensive line.  Tackles Austin Hansen and Laupepa Letuli give the Warrior a good couple of anchors.

Quarterback Brian Moniz returns to pilot the attack after starting eight times last year.  He is a good runner as well as passer, but he won’t be confused with Colin Kaepernick.

Moniz will benefit from the return of receivers Greg Salas and Kealoha Pilares.  The two combined for 172 receptions and 2,280 yards.  Speedy Rodney Bradley gives Moniz a third good option.

The running game has not been much of a factor in recent years.  As long as the back in the game can block for the quarterback, run a good safety valve route and cut on a draw play, he has done his job.  Alex Green should fit the bill nicely, and he should catch 25-30 passes this year.

With the troubles up front, we just cannot see Hawaii topping 24 points per game this season.  Look for 21-24 points and 375-400 yards.  The Warriors turned the ball over a lot last year, and that trend may continue in 2010. 

Defense: There should be improvement on this side of the ball, but it may not show up that much in the stats.  If the offense gives up the ball quickly due to incompetence, the defense will stay on the field longer.

Seven starters return on this side of the ball, but the top two tacklers from a year ago are gone.  One area that should not be a problem is the secondary.  All four starters return after giving up just 203 passing yards per game (low for this league).  All four (corners Jeramy Bryant and Lametrius Davis and safeties Mana Silva and Spencer Smith) proved to be excellent pass defenders, combining for 10 interceptions and 24 passes batted away.

The front seven is more of a problem.  Hawaii did a poor job against the run last year, and it could continue this season.  Two starters must be replaced up front, and two starters must be replaced at linebacker.  None of this year’s front seven will contend for even honorable mention all-conference.

Hawaii will give up 30-35 points and 400-425 yards per game.  

Schedule: The opener should draw a lot of national attention.  UH entertains bad boy Lane Kiffin and his Southern Cal Trojans on Thursday night, September 2.  They follow it up with a trips to West Point to face Army on 9/11 and to Boulder to take on the Colorado Buffaloes on 9/18.  It could actually be snowing in the Front Range on that date.  The Warriors return home to face Charleston Southern, which should be their first win.  UH concludes the season with UNLV.  The Rebels could possibly be playing for bowl eligibility in that game.  In league play, UH has road games with Fresno State and Boise State and will come home with their tails beneath their legs. 

We believe the Warriors will break even in league play, but they will fall one game short of bowl eligibility again.

Team	Idaho Vandals
Head Coach	Robb Akey
Colors	Black and Gold
City	Moscow, ID
2009 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	8-5
PiRate Rating	90.3
National Rating	88
2010 Prediction
Conference	2-6
Overall	3-10

 

Offense: 2009 was one of those years when the stars aligned just right for Coach Robb Akey’s Vandals.  Idaho won five close games, including a 43-42 Humanitarian Bowl thriller over Bowling Green, on its way to its first winning season of the century.  With the graduation of most of their offensive line, their top running back, and their top receiver, it looks like the one year recovery will be an anomaly. 

The one bright spot on this side of the ball is the return of quarterback Nathan Enderle.  After the big two, he may be the third best QB in the WAC.  Last year, he passed for 2,906 yards and 22 touchdowns.

Enderle’s top target has graduated, and Max Komar was vital to this team’s success.  Maurice Shaw returns after averaging more than 20 yards on his 32 receptions.  He should form a solid trio with Preston Davis and tight end Daniel Hardy, but Komar will be sorely missed.

Idaho used a platoon at tailback, and two of the three principle members of that platoon return.  Princeton McCarty and Deonte Jackson combined for 1,108 yards, so the Vandals’ running game is in good hands this year.

Because the rebuilding blocking wall will be a liability this year, expect both the rushing and passing yardage to fall back in 2010.  Call it about 23-26 points and 380-420 yards per game.  

Defense: Idaho didn’t win because of great defensive play in 2009.  They gave up 36 points and 433 yards per game!  With 10 starters returning, there should be some improvement, but we don’t see enough improvement to justify picking Idaho to return to a bowl.

The entire front seven returns intact.  They were not particularly strong against the run or the pass.  While the Vandals gave up just a tad over 150 rushing yards per game, opponents averaged 4.7 yards per rush.  They were too busy picking the secondary to shreds to run the ball much more than 30 times per game.

The strength of the front seven is on the outside where end Aaron Lavarais and outside linebacker Jo Jo Dickson will contend for all-conference honors.

The secondary will not fare much better than their dismal performance last year after giving up 278 passing yards per game and allowing better than 66% completions.  Without a much better pass rush, look for the Vandals to maybe give up 300 yards per game through the air.

Idaho will once again give up 30+ points per game, but maybe it will be less than last year’s 36.  Let’s go with 32-35 points and 425-450 yards allowed.

Schedule: The Vandals should start off the season on a winning note when they open with North Dakota at home.  Then, they must play at Nebraska, where they could lose by six touchdowns.  A home game with UNLV should tell the fans whether they have any reason to remain optimistic, and we believe the Rebels will leave Moscow with a win.  A trip to Colorado State the following week will either put the nail in the coffin for the 2010 season or give the Vandal hope.  The Rams will treat that game as a must-win contest.  A final non-conference game at Western Michigan won’t give them a win.  Idaho hosts both Nevada and Boise State, which should be considered a curse this year.  They cannot compete with either, and it would be better for the Vandals to have two other home games.  At least, UI gets New Mexico State and San Jose State at home—those are their two conference wins for 2010.

Team	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Head Coach	Sonny Dykes
Colors	Red and Blue
City	Ruston, LA
2009 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8
PiRate Rating	96.5
National Rating	66
2010 Prediction
Conference	4-4
Overall	5-7

 

Offense: After half of the coaches in FBS football turned down the Tennessee job last year, Tech coach Derek Dooley took the job.  Welcome new coach Sonny Dykes.  Dykes turned around the Arizona Wildcats’ offense after learning the “Air Raid” Spread offense at Texas Tech under Mike Leach.  Expect a complete overhaul of the offense this year, as the Bulldogs return to a wide open offense like teams of yesteryear in Ruston.

Unfortunately, Tech won’t have Tim Rattay, Luke McCown, or Terry Bradshaw lining up at quarterback.  Actually, neither Dooley nor offensive coordinator Tony Franklin know who will be lining up at quarterback in the opener.  As August practices began, it was a four-way race between incumbent Ross Jenkins, Auburn transfer Steven Ensminger, last year’s backup Colby Cameron, and junior college transfer Tarik Hakim.  Whoever wins the battle will be throwing the ball anywhere from 40 to 60 times a game.

Tech has a fine stable of pass receivers thanks to the school that stole their prior coach.  Tennessee transfer Ahmad Paige left Orangeville last year to escape the tornado known as Lane Kiffin.  Paige will join holdovers Cruz Williams and Phillip Livas to form a solid first team.  In this offense, expect at least five other receivers to catch more than 25 passes. 

Another escapee from the Kiffin asylum is tailback Lennon Creer.  We expect Creer to step in and start from day one, but the Bulldogs backs will not match the production of graduated star Daniel Porter.

The offensive line returns four starters, but there could be some rough times in the transition from a predominantly running attack to an offense that will pass the ball at least 60% of the time and as much as 80-85% of the time.

LT averaged 29 points per game last year, and we think the Bulldogs will shatter that mark this season.  Look for 31-35 points and 400-425 yards per game in year one of the “air raid.”

Defense: This is the reason Dykes won’t turn things around in year one.  Tech gave up 26 points per game last year, and the defense is noticeably weaker this season.

The problems start up front where only one starter returns to the four-man trench.  Included in the graduation losses was two-time All-WAC star D’Anthony Smith.

The three-man linebacking corps returns two starters, including 2009 1^st Team All-WAC Mike linebacker Adrien Cole.  Cole led the Techsters with 93 tackles last year.

The secondary is better than average and returns three starters, but they may have trouble matching last year’s numbers due to the weaker pass rush. 

We expect LT to give up more than 28 points and maybe as much as 33 points per game to go along with 375-400 yards per game.

Schedule: Finally it will happen!  Louisiana Tech will play Grambling for the first time ever to kick off the 2010 season.  The schools are within walking distance, but they have been separated by mountains of Southern philosophical opinion for years.  It should be an interesting game, but any chance for Grambling to pull off the upset disappeared when they weren’t able to gain approval for a medical hardship redshirt for their starting quarterback.  Tech will be 1-0 when they venture to Aggieland to take on Texas A&M, and that game should be a shootout.  Ditto the following two weeks’ games with Navy and Southern Miss.  When Tech enters WAC play, they may be just 1-3, but they could be averaging 40 points per game.  We see them splitting their league games, coming up one win short of bowl eligibility.

Team	Nevada Wolf Pack
Head Coach	Chris Ault
Colors	Blue and Silver
City	Reno, NV
2009 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	8-5
PiRate Rating	102.6
National Rating	51
2010 Prediction
Conference	7-1
Overall	10-3

 

Offense: Coaltown, Alydar, Sham, the 1961 Detroit Tigers, the 1962 Detroit Lions—what do these have in common?  Coaltown, Alydar, and Sham were great horses that might have won the Triple Crown in their three-year old campaigns, but they happened to race against Citation, Affirmed, and Secretariat.  The 1961 Tigers won more than 100 games and was probably better than the 1968 World Champions.  The 1962 Lions were probably the best ever in the Motor City.  Those Tigers played second fiddle to the Maris and Mantle Yankees.  Those Lions played second fiddle to the greatest NFL team in history—the 1962 Green Bay Packers.

Nevada is this year’s Coaltown.  The Wolf Pack is clearly the second best team in the WAC and one of the best teams in WAC history (in the current alignment) not wearing an orange and blue uniform.

Coach Chris Ault’s team ran the pistol offense to near perfection a year ago.  Nevada outpaced Georgia Tech and the three service academies that run triple option and averaged a nation’s best 345 yards rushing per game.  They had three players top 1,000 rushing yards.  Not even the great Oklahoma teams of the 1970’s that rushed for more than 400 yards a game had such a trio.

Two of those three stars return this season.  One is quarterback Colin Kaepernick.  He rushed for almost 1,200 yards (actually well over 1,300 when you factor out sacks) and 16 touchdowns.  He tossed another 20 touchdown passes on his way to 2,052 yards passing.

Joining Kaepernick in the pistol backfield will be Vai Taua, the other 1,000 yard back.  He totaled 1,345 yards with 10 touchdowns.  Backup Mike Ball will take over as the number two running back.  He averaged almost 10 yards per try in limited action last year, so he could replace Luke Lippincott as the third 1,000-yard rusher this year.

The receiving corps isn’t exactly chopped liver.  The four main receivers return after combining for 130 receptions and 14 touchdowns.  Brandon Wimberly was the WAC Freshman of the Year after grabbing 53 passes for 733 yards.

The offensive line lost two All-WAC performer, but we think this unit will be close to last year’s unit in blocking ability. 

Unless one of the option teams has an incredible season, there is no reason not to believe that Nevada will top the rushing charts again this season.  Look for another 325-350 effort on the ground with an additional 175-200 yards through the air.  The Wolf Pack should top 40 points per game after threatening that mark the last two seasons.

Defense: This side of the ball is missing just enough to prevent Nevada from competing with Boise State for the title.  As it is, the Wolf Pack is still the second best team by far.  Three of the top four tacklers must be replaced, so it is likely that Nevada will have to outscore opponents this season.

Up front, one of the returning starters is end Dontay Moch, who earned WAC Defensive Player of the Year in 2009.  Moch registered 20 tackles behind the line of scrimmage, including  6 ½ sacks.  At 6-1, he may be on the small side to be a star at the next level.

Brandon Marshall gives Nevada an outstanding strong-side linebacker.  Marshall dumped defenders for loss 9 ½ times in 2009, and he batted away four passes as well.

It is the secondary where Nevada cannot stop Boise State and thus cannot win the WAC this year.  The ‘Pack surrendered almost 300 yards through the air and 61.5% completions in 2009, and no starter had more than one interception.  Former Utah quarterback Corbin Louks has been brought to Reno to anchor the secondary at free safety. 

Nevada will once again give up more than four touchdowns per game.  Look for about 30 points and 425 yards allowed per contest.

Schedule: Nevada gets two breathers to open the season.  They host Eastern Washington and Colorado State.  A third consecutive home game against California could give the Wolf Pack a good chance to pull off the minor upset and crack the polls.  The following week finds them venturing to BYU for a potentially great shootout.  A week later, Nevada plays at UNLV.  They could be 5-0 when WAC play starts, and they will be no worse than 3-2.  They should be 4-0 in conference play when they go to Fresno State on November 13.  After a breather with New Mexico State, they host Boise State on Friday, November 26.  It isn’t impossible, but highly improbable they will win this game unless Boise State falls apart with numerous injuries.  Still, this should be Ault’s best team in Reno since he returned for the third time in 2004.  Call if a double-digit winning year.

Team	New Mexico State Aggies
Head Coach	DeWayne Walker
Colors	Crimson and White
City	Las Cruces, NM
2009 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	3-10
PiRate Rating	78.4
National Rating	109
2010 Prediction
Conference	1-7
Overall	2-10

 

Offense: One word can best sum up the Aggies’ offense—offensive.  NMSU scored just 11.5 points per game and tallied just 229 total yards per game.  That looks like stats you would see from a college team in the days when players went both ways.  The Aggies had no passing game whatsoever, and they were not an option team.  They averaged just 88 yards per game and completed less than half of their passes.

Quarterback Jeff Fleming might do better if he could throw to himself.  He just doesn’t have much talent in which to throw the ball.

Things are much better with the running game.  Seth Smith ran for more than 1,000 yards even though defenses placed an extra defender and sometimes two extra defenders up close to stop the run.

The offensive line returns three starters, but the Aggies pick up a plum in former Texas Longhorn tackle Aundre McGaskey.

With stats like last year, there is only one way to go for Coach DeWayne Walker’s offense, but we don’t expect State to fool many defenses this year.  Look for a slight improvement to 14-17 points and 250-275 yards per game. 

Defense: When your offense cannot sustain many drives and convert first downs, your defense will be on the field much longer than average.  Opponents ran an average of eight more plays per game against the Aggies last year, and more of the same will happen this season.

One unit that will be better is the back line.  All four starters return to the secondary.  This quartet of Stephon Hatchett, Alphonso House, Jonte Green, and Davon House teamed up for 32 batted passes and five picks.

The defensive line will be a little better this year, and that will make the secondary that much better.  Ends Pierre Fils and Donte Savage teamed up to make 13 QB sacks.

It’s at linebacker where there will be difficulties this year.  The Aggies must break in three new starters, only one of whom saw any real action last year.

The Aggies will give up 28-32 points and 400-425 yards again this season.  They are still a long way from competing for bowl eligibility.

Schedule: The one plus for New Mexico State is that as weak as they are, their in-state rival is weaker.  The Aggies should beat New Mexico.  They won’t be so lucky with San Diego State, UTEP, or Kansas.  NMSU gets upstart San Jose State at home, so we believe they will win twice this season.  That is one less than last year.

Team	San Jose State Spartans
Head Coach	Mike MacIntyre
Colors	Dark Blue and Gold
City	San Jose, CA
2009 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	2-10
PiRate Rating	82.7
National Rating	101
2010 Prediction
Conference	0-8
Overall	2-11

 

Offense: New Spartan head coach Mike MacIntyre takes over at San Jose after earning the national Assistant Coach of the Year award as the defensive coordinator at Duke.  Too bad he won’t get to defend against his own offense.  The Spartans scored just 13.8 points and produced 284 yards of total offense in 2009. 

Quarterback Jordan La Secla returns after passing for 1,926 yards at a 60% completion rate.  He tossed more interceptions than touchdown passes.

La Secla will have to make do without the top two receivers from last year.  Kevin Jurovich graduated, while Marquis Avery was declared academically ineligible.  Throw in the sudden departure of offensive coordinator Hugh Freeze to Arkansas State, and it looks like another long season on this side of the ball.

The running game was abysmal last year; don’t expect much improvement, after the Spartans averaged a meager 77 yards per game.

The offensive line is probably the strongest component of the offense, but it is still below average in the WAC. 

If MacIntyre can squeeze 17 points and 300 yards out of this offense, it will be a huge success.

Defense: San Jose State must replace four of their front seven defenders, so there won’t be much improvement on this side of the ball.  The Spartans didn’t fare much better on defense than offense last year. 

SJSU surrendered 259 rushing yards (6.1 yds./rush) last year, and with three of the front four having to be replaced against a slate of teams that can pound the ball down the field, the Spartans might actually fare worse this year.

All four starters return to the secondary.  Unfortunately, this quartet had to stop a lot of running plays last year and didn’t face many passing plays, as opponents ran the ball almost 65% of the time.

After giving up 35 points and 443 yards per game last year, the numbers could actually head south this year.  Look for maybe 36-40 points and 450-475 yards allowed.

Schedule:  By the time San Jose State faces a team they can beat, their players will be demoralized after beginning the season on the road with Alabama and Wisconsin. The Spartans will be 0-2, nursing a lot of bumps and bruises, and facing a scoring deficit of about 90-10!  They should find a way to beat Southern Utah in game three.  The following week finds them heading to Utah, where the Utes will remember the scare this team gave them last year.  Look for another blowout loss.  Then, SJSU faces UC Davis.  They should get a nice win in that one, but that will be their last of the season.  We see them losing all eight league games.

Team	Utah State Aggies
Head Coach	Gary Andersen
Colors	Navy and White
City	Logan, UT
2009 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8
PiRate Rating	95.3
National Rating	72
2010 Prediction
Conference	4-4
Overall	5-7

 

Offense: Coach Gary Andersen was a defensive genius as Utah’s defensive coordinator.  In his first year in Logan, he looked more like Urban Meyer.  If it wasn’t for a couple of key injuries, Utah State might have been looking at a winning season and bowl bid this year for the first time since 1997.

Running back Robert Turpin tore his ACL earlier this year and appears to be out for the season.  He led the Aggies with close to 1,300 rushing yards.  In his place, Michael Smith will carry the load.  Don’t expect 1,300 yards, but Smith has breakaway speed and can turn a small hole into a big gain.

Quarterback Diondre Borel ranks with Nathan Enderle as one of the WAC’s two best passers not named Moore or Kaepernick.  Borel had a splendid junior season in 2009 passing for 2,885 yards with 17 touchdowns and only four interceptions. 

The Aggies had a lot of options in the passing game, but they have been henpecked with injuries.  Turpin was a great receiver out of the backfield.  2009’s top receiver, Stanley Morrison, caught 33 passed and averaged 19 yards per catch.  He is gone for the season with a broken foot.  Then, just before practice began, wide out Eric Moats dropped a refrigerator on his foot.  He needed stitches, and as of this writing, he has yet to practice.  Junior college star Matt Austin was supposed to be a starter last year, but he missed the entire season.  He returns and will have to live up to his potential immediately.

The offensive line returns four starters, so if Borel has any talent running routes, he will have time to find them. 

Even with all the injuries, we believe USU will move the ball and score points this year, just not enough to move from middle of the pack to within shouting distance of Fresno State.  Look for 25-30 points and 400-425 yards per game.

Defense: Defense was a major problem last year, as USU gave up 34 points and 455 yards per game.  They could not stop the run or the pass.  With eight starters returning, expect some form of improvement.

The three linebackers are as good as any other WAC unit short of Boise State.  Bobby Wagner, Kyle Gallagher, and Junior Keiaho should team for more than 200 tackles.  Hopefully, not too many will be more than five yards downfield.

The defensive line returns three starters, but there is nothing special up front.  Actually, new starter Levi Koskan recorded more three more sacks than the three returning starters, who recorded ZERO SACKS!

The secondary had no chance last year with no pass rush.  Two starters return, and the two new starters saw considerable action last year.

If the Aggies can trim a touchdown off their defensive scoring average, they have a shot to emerge as the fourth bowl eligible WAC team.  Look for the defense to yield 26-31 points and 425-450 yards.

Schedule: The Aggies start the season at Oklahoma.  Assuming they have any depth left after that game, they should slaughter Idaho State.  If they are relatively healthy, game three could determine whether or not they can get over the hump and become the Idaho of 2009.  The Fresno State game in Logan is a make or break game.

Following that game, USU plays at San Diego State and then hosts BYU on Friday, October 1.  They should go 1-3 out of league play, so they will need five WAC wins to become bowl eligible.  They will have to beat either Fresno State or Louisiana Tech plus Hawaii to get there.  We believe they will come up one win short.

 

Coming Tomorrow: The Mountain West Conference—Can anybody beat TCU?  Are there six bowl eligible teams?

PiRate Ratings For College Football–Week of: December 9, 2008

NCAA Regular Season Summation

 

Congratulations go to Oklahoma and Florida, and my condolences go to Texas, Southern Cal, and Penn State, and Alabama.  Some biased poll voters, a couple of computer geeks, and a couple of sports elitists have determined that the Sooners and Gators are a couple hundredths of a percentage point better than the rest of the pack and deserve to play for the national title.

 

Florida lost their one game at home.  Oklahoma lost their one game on a neutral field to one of the other teams up for consideration.  Alabama’s loss on a neutral field to Florida is the exact same situation.  Texas lost on the road to an undefeated Texas Tech team on the final play of the game.  Southern Cal lost on the road at Oregon State with one late play figuring greatly in the outcome.  Penn State lost on the road at Iowa on the final play of the game.  So, the computers can tell us that Florida and Oklahoma are the two most deserving? 

 

Here are the final regular season PiRate Top 25 and the PiRate Ratings by conference:

 

NCAA Top 25 For 2-Dec-2008
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Florida	140	12	1
2	Oklahoma	139	12	1
3	Southern Cal	131	11	1
4	Texas	128	11	1
5	Ohio St.	127	10	2
6	Alabama	125	12	1
7	Penn St.	125	11	1
8	Ole Miss	121	8	4
9	Texas Tech	120	11	1
10	Boise State	120	12	0
11	T C U	120	10	2
12	Oregon	120	9	3
13	Utah	118	12	0
14	Iowa	117	8	4
15	Rutgers	117	7	5
16	California	116	8	4
17	Georgia	115	9	3
18	Oklahoma St.	114	9	3
19	Arizona	114	7	5
20	Clemson	113	7	5
21	Oregon State	113	8	4
22	Missouri	113	9	4
23	Florida State	112	8	4
24	Pittsburgh	112	9	3
25	Cincinnati	110	11	2
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Clemson	4-4	7-5	113	68	45
Florida State	5-3	8-4	112	70	42
North Carolina State	4-4	6-6	106	70	36
Boston College	5-3*	9-4	104	63	41
Wake Forest	4-4	7-5	104	56	48
Maryland	4-4	7-5	101	62	39
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Virginia Tech	5-3*+	9-4	109	67	42
Georgia Tech	5-3	9-3	109	68	41
North Carolina	4-4	8-4	105	66	39
Miami	4-4	7-5	102	60	42
Virginia	3-5	5-7	100	58	42
Duke	1-7	4-8	93	60	33

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Rutgers	5-2	7-5	117	70	47
Pittsburgh	5-2	9-3	112	66	46
Cincinnati	6-1	11-2	110	64	46
West Virginia	5-2	8-4	110	65	45
South Florida	2-5	7-5	106	68	38
Connecticut	3-4	7-5	102	64	38
Louisville	1-6	5-7	91	57	34
Syracuse	1-6	3-9	89	56	33

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Ohio State	7-1	10-2	127	71	56
Penn State	7-1	11-1	125	76	49
Iowa	5-3	8-4	117	72	45
Wisconsin	3-5	7-5	107	71	36
Northwestern	5-3	9-3	105	64	41
Michigan State	6-2	9-3	104	64	40
Purdue	2-6	4-8	103	67	36
Illinois	3-5	5-7	102	65	37
Michigan	2-6	3-9	96	57	39
Minnesota	3-5	7-5	92	58	34
Indiana	1-7	3-9	79	54	25

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Missouri	5-3*	9-4	113	74	39
Kansas	4-4	7-5	109	67	42
Nebraska	5-3	8-4	108	70	38
Colorado	2-6	5-7	95	57	38
Kansas State	2-6	5-7	92	67	25
Iowa State	0-8	2-10	86	57	29
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Oklahoma	7-1+	12-1	139	97	42
Texas	7-1	11-1	128	82	46
Texas Tech	7-1	11-1	120	85	35
Oklahoma State	5-3	9-3	114	71	43
Baylor	2-6	4-8	106	68	38
Texas A&M	2-6	4-8	90	56	34

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
East Carolina	6-2+	9-4	99	62	37
Southern Miss.	4-4	6-6	97	64	33
Memphis	4-4	6-6	92	61	31
Marshall	3-5	4-8	89	58	31
Central Florida	3-5	4-8	88	46	42
U A B	3-5	4-8	84	51	33
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Tulsa	7-1*	10-3	103	72	31
Rice	7-1	9-3	97	66	31
Houston	6-2	7-5	97	67	30
U T E P	4-4	5-7	87	59	28
S M U	0-8	1-11	78	57	21
Tulane	1-7	2-10	69	50	19

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Navy		8-4	104	61	43
Notre Dame		6-6	98	58	40
Army		3-9	82	46	36

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Bowling Green	4-4	6-6	103	68	35
Buffalo	5-3+	8-5	101	68	33
Temple	4-4	5-7	96	57	39
Ohio U	3-5	4-8	91	51	40
Kent State	3-5	4-8	89	58	31
Akron	3-5	5-7	89	60	29
Miami (O)	1-7	2-10	81	54	27
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Ball State	8-0	12-1	109	73	36
Western Michigan	6-2	9-3	100	63	37
Northern Illinois	5-3	6-6	98	59	39
Central Michigan	6-2	8-4	97	68	29
Eastern Michigan	2-6	3-9	88	59	29
Toledo	2-6	3-9	85	55	30

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
T C U	7-1	10-2	120	68	52
Utah	8-0	12-0	118	70	48
Brigham Young	6-2	10-2	106	67	39
Air Force	5-3	8-4	95	58	37
Colorado State	4-4	6-6	93	60	33
New Mexico	2-6	4-8	93	56	37
UNLV	2-6	5-7	85	56	29
Wyoming	1-7	4-8	85	51	34
San Diego State	1-7	2-10	76	49	27

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Southern Cal	7-1	11-1	131	72	59
Oregon	7-2	9-3	120	77	43
California	6-3	8-4	116	73	43
Arizona	5-4	7-5	114	75	39
Oregon State	7-2	8-4	113	74	39
Stanford	4-5	5-7	106	64	42
Arizona State	4-5	5-7	103	63	40
U C L A	3-6	4-8	100	57	43
Washington	0-9	0-12	81	54	27
Washington State	1-8	2-11	74	49	25

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Florida	7-1+	12-1	140	86	54
Georgia	6-2	9-3	115	73	42
South Carolina	4-4	7-5	108	63	45
Tennessee	3-5	5-7	107	62	45
Kentucky	2-6	6-6	102	62	40
Vanderbilt	4-4	6-6	100	55	45
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Alabama	8-0	12-1	125	69	56
Ole Miss	5-3	8-4	121	74	47
L S U	3-5	7-5	106	68	38
Arkansas	2-6	5-7	102	68	34
Auburn	2-6	5-7	102	56	46
Mississippi State	2-6	4-8	97	55	42

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Troy	6-1	8-4	105	69	36
Florida Atlantic	4-3	6-6	90	61	29
Middle Tennessee	3-4	5-7	90	58	32
Arkansas State	4-3	6-6	89	59	30
Florida International	3-4	5-7	89	58	31
Louisiana-Lafayette	5-2	6-6	88	66	22
Louisiana-Monroe	3-4	4-8	87	56	31
* Western Kentucky	0-0	2-10	79	49	30
North Texas	0-7	1-11	70	55	15
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Boise State	8-0	12-0	120	74	46
Nevada	5-3	7-5	102	73	29
Louisiana Tech	5-3	7-5	94	56	38
Utah State	3-5	3-9	93	57	36
Hawaii	5-3	7-6	93	55	38
Fresno State	4-4	7-5	88	61	27
San Jose State	4-4	6-6	85	53	32
New Mexico State	1-7	3-9	74	48	26
Idaho	1-7	2-10	73	57	16

 

Here is the bowl schedule

 

Date	Time EST	Bowl	City	Team	Team
D. 20	11:00	Eagle Bank	Washington DC	Wake Forest	Navy
D. 20	2:30	New Mexico	Albuquerque	Colorado State	Fresno State
D. 20	4:30	St. Petersburg	St. Petersburg	South Florida	Memphis
D. 20	8:00	Las Vegas	Las Vegas	B Y U	Arizona
D. 21	8:15	New Orleans	New Orleans	Troy	Southern Miss.
D. 23	8:00	Poinsettia	San Diego	Boise State	T C U
D. 24	8:00	Hawaii	Honolulu	Hawaii	Notre Dame
D. 26	8:00	Motor City	Detroit	Central Michigan	Florida Atlantic
D. 27	1:00	Meineke Car Care	Charlotte	North Carolina	West Virginia
D. 27	4:30	Champs Sports	Orlando	Florida State	Wisconsin
D. 27	8:00	Emerald	San Francisco	California	Miami (Fl.)
D. 28	8:15	Independence	Shrevport	Louisiana Tech	Northern Illinois
D. 29	3:00	PapaJohns	Birmingham	N. C. State	Rutgers
D. 29	8:00	Alamo	San Antonio	Northwestern	Missouri
D. 30	4:30	Humanitarian	Boise	Nevada	Maryland
D. 30	8:00	Texas	Houston	Western Michigan	Rice
D. 30	8:00	Holiday	San Diego	Oregon	Oklahoma State
D. 31	12:00	Armed Forces	Ft. Worth	Air Force	Houston
D. 31	2:00	Sun	El Paso	Oregon State	Pittsburgh
D. 31	3:30	Music City	Nashville	Vanderbilt	Boston College
D. 31	5:30	Insight	Tempe	Kansas	Minnesota
D. 31	7:30	Chick-fil-a	Atlanta	Georgia Tech	L S U
J. 1	11:00	Outback	Tampa	Iowa	South Carolina
J. 1	1:00	Capital One	Orlando	Georgia	Michigan State
J. 1	1:00	Gator	Jacksonville	Clemson	Nebraska
J. 1	4:30	Rose	Pasadena	Southern Cal	Penn State
J. 1	8:30	Orange	Miami	Virginia Tech	Cincinnati
J. 2	2:00	Cotton	Dallas	Texas Tech	Ole Miss
J. 2	5:00	Liberty	Memphis	East Carolina	Kentucky
J. 2	8:00	Sugar	New Orleans	Alabama	Utah
J. 3	12:00	International	Toronto	Connecticut	Buffalo
J. 5	8:00	Fiesta	Glendale	Texas	Ohio State
J. 6	8:00	G M A C	Mobile	Tulsa	Ball State
J. 8	8:00	Nat’l Championship	Miami	Florida	Oklahoma