PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 9: October 31-November 4, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arizona	San Francisco	-9.7	-10.9	-11.1
Jacksonville (n)	Houston	-4.1	-3.9	-3.0
Buffalo	Washington	9.8	9.6	9.5
Carolina	Tennessee	5.5	5.3	6.3
Philadelphia	Chicago	4.3	5.7	5.2
Kansas City	Minnesota	-4.2	-2.2	-3.1
Miami	N.Y. Jets	-3.6	-4.1	-3.2
Pittsburgh	Indianapolis	1.5	1.1	1.8
Oakland	Detroit	0.4	1.6	1.3
Seattle	Tampa Bay	9.6	7.2	6.9
Denver	Cleveland	2.1	1.8	1.5
LA Chargers	Green Bay	-2.8	-3.1	-4.2
Baltimore	New England	-6.0	-7.6	-6.2
N.Y. Giants	Dallas	-7.3	-7.3	-6.2

 

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Arizona	San Francisco	47
Jacksonville (n)	Houston	42.5
Buffalo	Washington	35
Carolina	Tennessee	41
Philadelphia	Chicago	44.5
Kansas City	Minnesota	52.5
Miami	N.Y. Jets	46.5
Pittsburgh	Indianapolis	43.5
Oakland	Detroit	49
Seattle	Tampa Bay	54.5
Denver	Cleveland	41.5
LA Chargers	Green Bay	48
Baltimore	New England	44
N.Y. Giants	Dallas	45.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	111.0	112.2	111.8	111.7	21	8-0
Buffalo	98.2	99.1	98.5	98.6	17.5	5-2
N. Y. Jets	92.3	93.2	91.9	92.5	20.5	1-6
Miami	86.8	87.0	86.6	86.8	26	0-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	102.0	101.6	102.6	102.1	23	5-2
Cleveland	99.8	100.1	100.2	100.0	23.5	2-5
Pittsburgh	98.6	99.1	99.4	99.0	21.5	3-4
Cincinnati	93.6	93.3	93.6	93.5	23.5	0-8
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	103.4	103.6	103.2	103.4	23.5	5-3
Indianapolis	100.1	101.0	100.6	100.6	22	5-2
Jacksonville	99.3	99.8	100.2	99.8	19	4-4
Tennessee	98.0	98.4	98.0	98.1	16	4-4
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	99.9	100.3	99.7	100.0	30.5	5-3
LA Chargers	100.0	99.8	99.1	99.6	22	3-5
Denver	98.9	99.0	98.7	98.9	18	2-6
Oakland	96.8	96.9	97.4	97.0	24.5	3-4
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	104.4	105.0	104.4	104.6	20.5	4-3
Philadelphia	105.1	103.4	103.1	103.8	25.5	4-4
N.Y. Giants	94.2	94.6	95.2	94.7	25	2-6
Washington	91.5	92.4	92.0	92.0	17.5	1-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	107.1	105.5	105.8	106.2	22	6-2
Green Bay	104.8	104.9	105.3	105.0	26	7-1
Chicago	103.8	100.7	100.8	101.8	19	3-4
Detroit	99.4	98.3	99.0	98.9	24.5	3-3-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	109.1	106.5	107.0	107.5	24.5	7-1
Carolina	100.5	100.7	101.3	100.8	25	4-3
Tampa Bay	96.0	98.2	98.6	97.6	29	2-5
Atlanta	94.7	94.9	94.1	94.5	26.5	1-7
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	106.8	108.1	108.7	107.9	24	7-0
LA Rams	107.2	105.8	106.1	106.4	27	5-3
Seattle	102.6	102.4	102.5	102.5	25.5	7-1
Arizona	94.1	94.1	94.6	94.3	23	3-4-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Indianapolis
3	Baltimore
4	Kansas City
5	Houston
6	Jacksonville
NFC Seeding
1	New Orleans
2	San Francisco
3	Green Bay
4	Dallas
5	Minnesota
6	LA Rams

 

Wildcard Round

Jacksonville over Baltimore

Houston over Kansas City

Green Bay over LA Rams

Minnesota over Dallas

Divisional Round

New England over Jacksonville

Indianapolis over Houston

New Orleans over Minnesota

San Francisco over Green Bay

Conference Championship

New England over Indianapolis

New Orleans over San Francisco

Super Bowl 54

New England over New Orleans

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 5: October 3-7, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Seattle	LA Rams	-1.1	0.8	0.7
Pittsburgh	Baltimore	-1.0	-0.3	-0.9
Oakland (n)	Chicago	-10.6	-7.1	-6.8
Cincinnati	Arizona	5.3	4.7	4.9
Carolina	Jacksonville	6.5	5.7	6.2
N.Y. Giants	Minnesota	-5.1	-2.0	-1.0
Washington	New England	-12.7	-12.3	-11.9
Philadelphia	N.Y. Jets	12.2	8.7	9.9
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	14.2	7.7	7.4
Houston	Atlanta	7.5	6.7	6.8
Tennessee	Buffalo	5.5	4.6	5.1
LA Chargers	Denver	6.6	7.0	6.5
Dallas	Green Bay	5.2	6.0	5.5
Kansas City	Indianapolis	12.5	12.3	12.5
San Francisco	Cleveland	1.5	2.6	2.7

 

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Seattle	LA Rams	53
Pittsburgh	Baltimore	44.5
Oakland (n)	Chicago	42.5
Cincinnati	Arizona	46.5
Carolina	Jacksonville	42
N.Y. Giants	Minnesota	45.5
Washington	New England	41.5
Philadelphia	N.Y. Jets	47
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	52
Houston	Atlanta	46
Tennessee	Buffalo	36
LA Chargers	Denver	42.5
Dallas	Green Bay	44.5
Kansas City	Indianapolis	54.5
San Francisco	Cleveland	48

 

(n)–Oakland vs. Chicago game played in London

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.1	109.1	108.3	108.5	21.5	4-0
Buffalo	97.9	99.3	98.7	98.6	18.5	3-1
N. Y. Jets	94.7	96.0	94.6	95.1	22.5	0-3
Miami	85.8	85.6	85.0	85.5	26.5	0-4
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Cleveland	101.7	102.0	102.2	102.0	23.5	2-2
Baltimore	101.1	100.7	101.7	101.2	23	2-2
Pittsburgh	97.6	98.0	98.3	97.9	21.5	1-3
Cincinnati	95.4	95.1	95.7	95.4	24.5	0-4
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.7	102.7	102.3	102.6	21.5	2-2
Tennessee	100.4	100.8	100.8	100.7	17.5	2-2
Jacksonville	98.1	98.8	99.0	98.6	19	2-2
Indianapolis	97.1	97.9	97.2	97.4	23	2-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	106.6	107.2	106.7	106.8	31.5	4-0
LA Chargers	102.5	102.9	102.0	102.4	22	2-2
Denver	98.4	98.4	98.0	98.3	20.5	0-4
Oakland	95.7	95.9	96.5	96.0	23.5	2-2
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	103.9	104.8	104.4	104.4	20	3-1
Philadelphia	105.0	102.7	102.5	103.4	24.5	2-2
N.Y. Giants	96.2	97.0	98.0	97.1	24.5	2-2
Washington	93.0	94.3	93.9	93.7	20	0-4
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Chicago	106.4	102.9	103.3	104.2	19	3-1
Minnesota	104.3	102.0	102.0	102.8	21	2-2
Green Bay	101.8	101.8	101.9	101.8	24.5	3-1
Detroit	99.7	98.6	99.7	99.4	23	2-1-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	106.9	103.3	103.5	104.6	24	3-1
Carolina	101.6	101.4	102.2	101.7	23	2-2
Atlanta	98.3	99.0	98.5	98.6	24.5	1-3
Tampa Bay	95.7	98.6	99.1	97.8	28	2-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	107.1	105.1	105.3	105.8	28.5	3-1
Seattle	103.0	102.9	103.0	103.0	24.5	3-1
San Francisco	100.2	101.7	101.9	101.3	24.5	3-0
Arizona	93.1	93.4	93.8	93.4	22	0-3-1

 

Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Kansas City
3	Cleveland
4	Jacksonville
5	Buffalo
6	LA Chargers
NFC Seeding
1	Seattle
2	New Orleans
3	Chicago
4	Philadelphia
5	LA Rams
6	Green Bay

 

Wildcard Round

LA Chargers over Cleveland

Buffalo over Jacksonville

Chicago over Green Bay

LA Rams over Philadelphia

Divisional Round

New England over LA Chargers

Kansas City over Buffalo

LA Rams over Seattle

Chicago over New Orleans

Conference Championship

Kansas City over New England

Chicago over LA Rams

Super Bowl 53

Kansas City over Chicago

 

 

 

 

 

A Great Compromise For The NFL

As Week Three of the NFL Preseason continues today, the hot topic among the NFL teams, media, and fans is the preseason itself.  Four preseason games are definitely too many in the 21st Century.  With mini-camps and organized team activities, NFL football does not need more than a month of preseason preparing for the regular season.

At one time, NFL teams played six preseason games and then played a 12-game regular season.  It expanded to six preseason and 14 regular season games in 1961 (1960 in the American Football League).  When the NFL schedule expanded to 16 games in 1979, the preseason shortened to the four games we have now.  So, this current formula has been in place for 40 years.

The owners believe that any reduction in preseason games should be accompanied by an increase in regular season games.  The players don’t believe an 18-game regular season schedule is such a good idea, as injuries are considerably more prevalent the more games they play.  With an 18-game regular season, some players will play 22 regular season games if they make the Super Bowl as a Wildcard.

Obviously, the NFL owners will not agree to removing two preseason games with no extra regular season games.  The players may not agree on the 18-game schedule either.

Here’s our compromise proposal.  Remove two preseason games, which means just one home game per team, and replace it with just one extra regular season games.  That means the regular season would be 17 games.  How could we favor an odd number of games, since that would mean half the league would play nine home games and the other half eight.  Wouldn’t that give the half with nine home games a big advantage?

That’s not what we are proposing.  What we propose is that this 17th game would be played at a neutral site.  There are many excellent college football venues and bowl sites that do not host NFL football.  How would a Dallas-Houston game at the University of Texas play in Austin?  What about the Steelers and Eagles playing at Penn State in Happy Valley?  Or, consider the Carolina Panthers and Cincinnati Bengals playing at the University of Tennessee’s Neyland Stadium?

Opening pro football to all these other markets would grow the brand nationally like playing in London has internationally.  Games in London, Madrid, Paris, Rome, and Munich could be schedules as neutral site games rather than home games.  The NFL could add Mexico City, Honolulu, Tokyo, and Melbourne to its regular season schedule.

What would be done with the extra week of the season when the schedule reduced from 20 different weeks to 19?  Throw in a second bye week for every team and construct schedules that give teams an off week following their neutral site game.

If this plan were put in place, the NFL season would begin tomorrow, Sunday, August 25.

PiRate Ratings: NFL–Week 8 October 24-28, 2013

Revisiting Our NFL Schedule Change Proposal

Last year in a weekly release, we set forth an idea to remove one week of the preseason schedule and replace it with a 17^th regular season game.

 

The fourth preseason game is virtually meaningless to most NFL teams these days, and the NFL has begun looking at ways to add more games to the regular season, so our idea offers solutions to both problems.

 

Why not add remove week 4 of the preseason and replace it with a 17^th game that will be played on a neutral site.  This would allow for more games in London without adding or moving a franchise to the United Kingdom or taking away a home game from any team.

 

There are cities in this country that could easily put 80,000 or more fans in the stands for a regular season NFL game.  Look at great football towns like Birmingham, Alabama, State College, Pennsylvania, Ann Arbor, Michigan, Columbus, Ohio, Lincoln, Nebraska, and many others.

 

What if the New York Jets played the Cleveland Browns at Penn State’s Beaver Stadium?  The game would sell out quickly and place more than 106,000 fans in the seats.  I dare say the financial reward would far exceed what a week 4 preseason game would net.

 

The key would be to set these neutral site games so that neither team has an advantage.  Thus, the Lions would not play in Ann Arbor; the Bengals would not play in Columbus; the Titans would not play in Knoxville.

 

Until Los Angeles finally gets a team, the Rose Bowl would be an excellent venue for two or three of these Game Number 17’s.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Dallas Cowboys	103.3	105.7	104.3
Washington Redskins	97.1	97.0	96.8
Philadelphia Eagles	95.7	97.0	95.6
New York Giants	93.5	92.7	92.3
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay Packers	107.1	106.6	107.3
Chicago Bears	101.6	100.9	100.7
Detroit Lions	101.2	102.5	101.1
Minnesota Vikings	93.9	92.4	92.6
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans Saints	106.2	108.1	106.7
Carolina Panthers	102.3	102.4	102.5
Atlanta Falcons	100.2	99.0	99.3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	94.2	93.1	93.5
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco 49ers	108.7	109.3	109.2
Seattle Seahawks	108.3	108.5	108.5
St. Louis Rams	96.5	97.0	96.1
Arizona Cardinals	96.2	97.9	96.5
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England Patriots	105.2	102.8	105.2
Miami Dolphins	98.9	98.6	98.9
Buffalo Bills	97.1	96.5	97.7
New York Jets	96.0	93.8	96.4
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Cincinnati Bengals	103.3	103.4	103.8
Baltimore Ravens	102.3	101.4	101.8
Pittsburgh Steelers	98.0	96.6	97.4
Cleveland Browns	97.3	97.7	97.2
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis Colts	105.3	105.7	105.9
Tennessee Titans	99.7	100.0	100.3
Houston Texans	98.1	97.7	98.6
Jacksonville Jaguars	85.7	84.9	85.2
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Denver Broncos	110.1	110.6	110.4
Kansas City Chiefs	103.2	105.2	103.6
San Diego Chargers	100.5	101.7	101.3
Oakland Raiders	93.3	93.3	93.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arizona	Atlanta	-1.0	1.9	0.2
Cincinnati	N Y Jets	10.3	12.6	10.4
Denver	Washington	16.0	16.6	16.6
Detroit	Dallas	0.9	-0.2	-0.2
Jacksonville (@ London)	San Francisco	-23.0	-24.4	-24.0
Kansas City	Cleveland	8.9	10.5	9.4
Minnesota	Green Bay	-10.2	-11.2	-11.7
New England	Miami	9.3	7.2	9.3
New Orleans	Buffalo	12.1	14.6	12.0
Oakland	Pittsburgh	-1.2	0.2	-0.6
Philadelphia	N Y Giants	4.2	6.3	5.3
St. Louis	Seattle	-8.8	-8.5	-9.4
Tampa Bay	Carolina	-6.1	-7.3	-7.0
Byes: Baltimore, Chicago, Houston, Indianapolis, San Diego, Tennessee

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

A F C

1. Denver

2. Indianapolis

3. Cincinnati

4. New England

5. Kansas City

6. Pittsburgh

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. New Orleans

3. Green Bay

4. Dallas

5. San Francisco

6. Detroit

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over New England

Cincinnati over Pittsburgh

San Francisco over Dallas

Green Bay over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

Denver over Kansas City

Indianapolis over Cincinnati

Seattle over San Francisco

Green Bay over New Orleans

 

Conference Championships

Denver over Indianapolis

Green Bay over Seattle

 

Super Bowl

Green Bay over Denver