The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 28, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 9: October 31-November 4, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona

San Francisco

-9.7

-10.9

-11.1

Jacksonville (n)

Houston

-4.1

-3.9

-3.0

Buffalo

Washington

9.8

9.6

9.5

Carolina

Tennessee

5.5

5.3

6.3

Philadelphia

Chicago

4.3

5.7

5.2

Kansas City

Minnesota

-4.2

-2.2

-3.1

Miami

N.Y. Jets

-3.6

-4.1

-3.2

Pittsburgh

Indianapolis

1.5

1.1

1.8

Oakland

Detroit

0.4

1.6

1.3

Seattle

Tampa Bay

9.6

7.2

6.9

Denver

Cleveland

2.1

1.8

1.5

LA Chargers

Green Bay

-2.8

-3.1

-4.2

Baltimore

New England

-6.0

-7.6

-6.2

N.Y. Giants

Dallas

-7.3

-7.3

-6.2

 

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Arizona

San Francisco

47

Jacksonville (n)

Houston

42.5

Buffalo

Washington

35

Carolina

Tennessee

41

Philadelphia

Chicago

44.5

Kansas City

Minnesota

52.5

Miami

N.Y. Jets

46.5

Pittsburgh

Indianapolis

43.5

Oakland

Detroit

49

Seattle

Tampa Bay

54.5

Denver

Cleveland

41.5

LA Chargers

Green Bay

48

Baltimore

New England

44

N.Y. Giants

Dallas

45.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

111.0

112.2

111.8

111.7

21

8-0

Buffalo

98.2

99.1

98.5

98.6

17.5

5-2

N. Y. Jets

92.3

93.2

91.9

92.5

20.5

1-6

Miami

86.8

87.0

86.6

86.8

26

0-7

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

102.0

101.6

102.6

102.1

23

5-2

Cleveland

99.8

100.1

100.2

100.0

23.5

2-5

Pittsburgh

98.6

99.1

99.4

99.0

21.5

3-4

Cincinnati

93.6

93.3

93.6

93.5

23.5

0-8

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

103.4

103.6

103.2

103.4

23.5

5-3

Indianapolis

100.1

101.0

100.6

100.6

22

5-2

Jacksonville

99.3

99.8

100.2

99.8

19

4-4

Tennessee

98.0

98.4

98.0

98.1

16

4-4

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

99.9

100.3

99.7

100.0

30.5

5-3

LA Chargers

100.0

99.8

99.1

99.6

22

3-5

Denver

98.9

99.0

98.7

98.9

18

2-6

Oakland

96.8

96.9

97.4

97.0

24.5

3-4

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

104.4

105.0

104.4

104.6

20.5

4-3

Philadelphia

105.1

103.4

103.1

103.8

25.5

4-4

N.Y. Giants

94.2

94.6

95.2

94.7

25

2-6

Washington

91.5

92.4

92.0

92.0

17.5

1-7

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

107.1

105.5

105.8

106.2

22

6-2

Green Bay

104.8

104.9

105.3

105.0

26

7-1

Chicago

103.8

100.7

100.8

101.8

19

3-4

Detroit

99.4

98.3

99.0

98.9

24.5

3-3-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

109.1

106.5

107.0

107.5

24.5

7-1

Carolina

100.5

100.7

101.3

100.8

25

4-3

Tampa Bay

96.0

98.2

98.6

97.6

29

2-5

Atlanta

94.7

94.9

94.1

94.5

26.5

1-7

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

106.8

108.1

108.7

107.9

24

7-0

LA Rams

107.2

105.8

106.1

106.4

27

5-3

Seattle

102.6

102.4

102.5

102.5

25.5

7-1

Arizona

94.1

94.1

94.6

94.3

23

3-4-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Indianapolis

3

Baltimore

4

Kansas City

5

Houston

6

Jacksonville

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

New Orleans

2

San Francisco

3

Green Bay

4

Dallas

5

Minnesota

6

LA Rams

 

Wildcard Round

Jacksonville over Baltimore

Houston over Kansas City

Green Bay over LA Rams

Minnesota over Dallas

 

Divisional Round

New England over Jacksonville

Indianapolis over Houston

New Orleans over Minnesota

San Francisco over Green Bay

 

Conference Championship

New England over Indianapolis

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Super Bowl 54

New England over New Orleans

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 30, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 5: October 3-7, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Seattle

LA Rams

-1.1

0.8

0.7

Pittsburgh

Baltimore

-1.0

-0.3

-0.9

Oakland (n)

Chicago

-10.6

-7.1

-6.8

Cincinnati

Arizona

5.3

4.7

4.9

Carolina

Jacksonville

6.5

5.7

6.2

N.Y. Giants

Minnesota

-5.1

-2.0

-1.0

Washington

New England

-12.7

-12.3

-11.9

Philadelphia

N.Y. Jets

12.2

8.7

9.9

New Orleans

Tampa Bay

14.2

7.7

7.4

Houston

Atlanta

7.5

6.7

6.8

Tennessee

Buffalo

5.5

4.6

5.1

LA Chargers

Denver

6.6

7.0

6.5

Dallas

Green Bay

5.2

6.0

5.5

Kansas City

Indianapolis

12.5

12.3

12.5

San Francisco

Cleveland

1.5

2.6

2.7

 

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Seattle

LA Rams

53

Pittsburgh

Baltimore

44.5

Oakland (n)

Chicago

42.5

Cincinnati

Arizona

46.5

Carolina

Jacksonville

42

N.Y. Giants

Minnesota

45.5

Washington

New England

41.5

Philadelphia

N.Y. Jets

47

New Orleans

Tampa Bay

52

Houston

Atlanta

46

Tennessee

Buffalo

36

LA Chargers

Denver

42.5

Dallas

Green Bay

44.5

Kansas City

Indianapolis

54.5

San Francisco

Cleveland

48

 

(n)–Oakland vs. Chicago game played in London

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

108.1

109.1

108.3

108.5

21.5

4-0

Buffalo

97.9

99.3

98.7

98.6

18.5

3-1

N. Y. Jets

94.7

96.0

94.6

95.1

22.5

0-3

Miami

85.8

85.6

85.0

85.5

26.5

0-4

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Cleveland

101.7

102.0

102.2

102.0

23.5

2-2

Baltimore

101.1

100.7

101.7

101.2

23

2-2

Pittsburgh

97.6

98.0

98.3

97.9

21.5

1-3

Cincinnati

95.4

95.1

95.7

95.4

24.5

0-4

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

102.7

102.7

102.3

102.6

21.5

2-2

Tennessee

100.4

100.8

100.8

100.7

17.5

2-2

Jacksonville

98.1

98.8

99.0

98.6

19

2-2

Indianapolis

97.1

97.9

97.2

97.4

23

2-2

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

106.6

107.2

106.7

106.8

31.5

4-0

LA Chargers

102.5

102.9

102.0

102.4

22

2-2

Denver

98.4

98.4

98.0

98.3

20.5

0-4

Oakland

95.7

95.9

96.5

96.0

23.5

2-2

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

103.9

104.8

104.4

104.4

20

3-1

Philadelphia

105.0

102.7

102.5

103.4

24.5

2-2

N.Y. Giants

96.2

97.0

98.0

97.1

24.5

2-2

Washington

93.0

94.3

93.9

93.7

20

0-4

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Chicago

106.4

102.9

103.3

104.2

19

3-1

Minnesota

104.3

102.0

102.0

102.8

21

2-2

Green Bay

101.8

101.8

101.9

101.8

24.5

3-1

Detroit

99.7

98.6

99.7

99.4

23

2-1-1

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

106.9

103.3

103.5

104.6

24

3-1

Carolina

101.6

101.4

102.2

101.7

23

2-2

Atlanta

98.3

99.0

98.5

98.6

24.5

1-3

Tampa Bay

95.7

98.6

99.1

97.8

28

2-2

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Rams

107.1

105.1

105.3

105.8

28.5

3-1

Seattle

103.0

102.9

103.0

103.0

24.5

3-1

San Francisco

100.2

101.7

101.9

101.3

24.5

3-0

Arizona

93.1

93.4

93.8

93.4

22

0-3-1

 

Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Kansas City

3

Cleveland

4

Jacksonville

5

Buffalo

6

LA Chargers

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

Seattle

2

New Orleans

3

Chicago

4

Philadelphia

5

LA Rams

6

Green Bay

 

Wildcard Round

LA Chargers over Cleveland

Buffalo over Jacksonville

Chicago over Green Bay

LA Rams over Philadelphia

 

 

Divisional Round

New England over LA Chargers

Kansas City over Buffalo

LA Rams over Seattle

Chicago over New Orleans

 

 

Conference Championship

Kansas City over New England

Chicago over LA Rams

 

 

Super Bowl 53

Kansas City over Chicago

 

 

 

 

 

August 24, 2019

A Great Compromise For The NFL

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:47 am

As Week Three of the NFL Preseason continues today, the hot topic among the NFL teams, media, and fans is the preseason itself.  Four preseason games are definitely too many in the 21st Century.  With mini-camps and organized team activities, NFL football does not need more than a month of preseason preparing for the regular season.

At one time, NFL teams played six preseason games and then played a 12-game regular season.  It expanded to six preseason and 14 regular season games in 1961 (1960 in the American Football League).  When the NFL schedule expanded to 16 games in 1979, the preseason shortened to the four games we have now.  So, this current formula has been in place for 40 years.

The owners believe that any reduction in preseason games should be accompanied by an increase in regular season games.  The players don’t believe an 18-game regular season schedule is such a good idea, as injuries are considerably more prevalent the more games they play.  With an 18-game regular season, some players will play 22 regular season games if they make the Super Bowl as a Wildcard.

Obviously, the NFL owners will not agree to removing two preseason games with no extra regular season games.  The players may not agree on the 18-game schedule either.

Here’s our compromise proposal.  Remove two preseason games, which means just one home game per team, and replace it with just one extra regular season games.  That means the regular season would be 17 games.  How could we favor an odd number of games, since that would mean half the league would play nine home games and the other half eight.  Wouldn’t that give the half with nine home games a big advantage?

That’s not what we are proposing.  What we propose is that this 17th game would be played at a neutral site.  There are many excellent college football venues and bowl sites that do not host NFL football.  How would a Dallas-Houston game at the University of Texas play in Austin?  What about the Steelers and Eagles playing at Penn State in Happy Valley?  Or, consider the Carolina Panthers and Cincinnati Bengals playing at the University of Tennessee’s Neyland Stadium?

Opening pro football to all these other markets would grow the brand nationally like playing in London has internationally.  Games in London, Madrid, Paris, Rome, and Munich could be schedules as neutral site games rather than home games.  The NFL could add Mexico City, Honolulu, Tokyo, and Melbourne to its regular season schedule.

What would be done with the extra week of the season when the schedule reduced from 20 different weeks to 19?  Throw in a second bye week for every team and construct schedules that give teams an off week following their neutral site game.

If this plan were put in place, the NFL season would begin tomorrow, Sunday, August 25.

October 22, 2013

PiRate Ratings: NFL–Week 8 October 24-28, 2013

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:37 am

Revisiting Our NFL Schedule Change Proposal

Last year in a weekly release, we set forth an idea to remove one week of the preseason schedule and replace it with a 17th regular season game.

 

The fourth preseason game is virtually meaningless to most NFL teams these days, and the NFL has begun looking at ways to add more games to the regular season, so our idea offers solutions to both problems.

 

Why not add remove week 4 of the preseason and replace it with a 17th game that will be played on a neutral site.  This would allow for more games in London without adding or moving a franchise to the United Kingdom or taking away a home game from any team.

 

There are cities in this country that could easily put 80,000 or more fans in the stands for a regular season NFL game.  Look at great football towns like Birmingham, Alabama, State College, Pennsylvania, Ann Arbor, Michigan, Columbus, Ohio, Lincoln, Nebraska, and many others.

 

What if the New York Jets played the Cleveland Browns at Penn State’s Beaver Stadium?  The game would sell out quickly and place more than 106,000 fans in the seats.  I dare say the financial reward would far exceed what a week 4 preseason game would net.

 

The key would be to set these neutral site games so that neither team has an advantage.  Thus, the Lions would not play in Ann Arbor; the Bengals would not play in Columbus; the Titans would not play in Knoxville.

 

Until Los Angeles finally gets a team, the Rose Bowl would be an excellent venue for two or three of these Game Number 17’s.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Dallas Cowboys

103.3

105.7

104.3

Washington Redskins

97.1

97.0

96.8

Philadelphia Eagles

95.7

97.0

95.6

New York Giants

93.5

92.7

92.3

 

 

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Green Bay Packers

107.1

106.6

107.3

Chicago Bears

101.6

100.9

100.7

Detroit Lions

101.2

102.5

101.1

Minnesota Vikings

93.9

92.4

92.6

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New Orleans Saints

106.2

108.1

106.7

Carolina Panthers

102.3

102.4

102.5

Atlanta Falcons

100.2

99.0

99.3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

94.2

93.1

93.5

 

 

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

San Francisco 49ers

108.7

109.3

109.2

Seattle Seahawks

108.3

108.5

108.5

St. Louis Rams

96.5

97.0

96.1

Arizona Cardinals

96.2

97.9

96.5

       

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New England Patriots

105.2

102.8

105.2

Miami Dolphins

98.9

98.6

98.9

Buffalo Bills

97.1

96.5

97.7

New York Jets

96.0

93.8

96.4

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Cincinnati Bengals

103.3

103.4

103.8

Baltimore Ravens

102.3

101.4

101.8

Pittsburgh Steelers

98.0

96.6

97.4

Cleveland Browns

97.3

97.7

97.2

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Indianapolis Colts

105.3

105.7

105.9

Tennessee Titans

99.7

100.0

100.3

Houston Texans

98.1

97.7

98.6

Jacksonville Jaguars

85.7

84.9

85.2

       
West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Denver Broncos

110.1

110.6

110.4

Kansas City Chiefs

103.2

105.2

103.6

San Diego Chargers

100.5

101.7

101.3

Oakland Raiders

93.3

93.3

93.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona Atlanta

-1.0

1.9

0.2

Cincinnati N Y Jets

10.3

12.6

10.4

Denver Washington

16.0

16.6

16.6

Detroit Dallas

0.9

-0.2

-0.2

Jacksonville (@ London) San Francisco

-23.0

-24.4

-24.0

Kansas City Cleveland

8.9

10.5

9.4

Minnesota Green Bay

-10.2

-11.2

-11.7

New England Miami

9.3

7.2

9.3

New Orleans Buffalo

12.1

14.6

12.0

Oakland Pittsburgh

-1.2

0.2

-0.6

Philadelphia N Y Giants

4.2

6.3

5.3

St. Louis Seattle

-8.8

-8.5

-9.4

Tampa Bay Carolina

-6.1

-7.3

-7.0

   

 

 

 

Byes: Baltimore, Chicago, Houston, Indianapolis, San Diego, Tennessee

 

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

A F C

1. Denver

2. Indianapolis

3. Cincinnati

4. New England

5. Kansas City

6. Pittsburgh

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. New Orleans

3. Green Bay

4. Dallas

5. San Francisco

6. Detroit

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over New England

Cincinnati over Pittsburgh

San Francisco over Dallas

Green Bay over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

Denver over Kansas City

Indianapolis over Cincinnati

Seattle over San Francisco

Green Bay over New Orleans

 

Conference Championships

Denver over Indianapolis

Green Bay over Seattle

 

Super Bowl

Green Bay over Denver

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