PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 10: November 12-16, 2009

Introducing NFL Playoff Projections

 

If you are a college football fan, you probably have seen multiple Internet sites showing weekly bowl projections.  Maybe, you’ve even seen ours.  Why not have NFL playoff projections?  Unlike college football, the NFL playoff rules are always known.  The best two division winners in both leagues receive byes, while the third best division winners host the lowest qualifying wildcards, and the fourth best division winners host the wildcard with the better records.

 

So, beginning today, we will list our projections.  This will not be one of those “if the playoffs started today lists; it will be projections based on where we believe every team will finish.

 

Let’s start with the AFC.  In the East, we believe New England already has clinched the division title and will finish with the second best record among the four division winners.

 

In the South, we believe Indianapolis could win the division by five or more games and secure home field advantage.

 

The North is still very much up for grabs, but the way Pittsburgh is playing these days, they could very well finish 12-4 or better. 

 

In the West, Denver may be swooning once again.  San Diego’s running game has abandoned them, but the passing of Phillip Rivers may be enough to overtake the Broncos.

 

Cincinnati should win enough games to grab one wildcard spot, but the other spot should go down to the final week before it is decided.  Baltimore has a tough schedule, and we believe the Ravens will fall a game short.  Denver and the New York Jets both have great shots at 10 wins.  We’ll give the edge to the Jets.

 

So, as of today, we see the Jets visiting Pittsburgh, and the Bengals visiting San Diego in the opening playoff weekend.  The higher remaining seed will play at New England the following week, and the lower remaining seed will play at Indianapolis.

 

In the NFC, Dallas sure looks like the cream of the East.  Don’t count out the Eagles or Giants, but the Cowboys could easily finish 12-4.

 

New Orleans already has the South race in hand.  Whether they can go 16-0 is no matter, because at 13-3, they should still have the best record in the conference.

 

Minnesota has a three-game lead on the Bears and Packers, and only another Brett Favre injury could prevent the Vikings from winning the North Division.

 

Arizona may have to fight off a late rush by San Francisco or Seattle, but we believe the Cardinals will repeat in the West.

 

Philadelphia and the Giants will jockey it out with one team winning 10 and the other winning nine.  For now, we’ll go with the Eagles as the lucky 10-win team.  We think Atlanta will win 10 games as well and take the top Wildcard spot.

 

That leaves Philadelphia visiting Arizona and Atlanta playing at Dallas in the opening round of the playoffs.  The higher remaining seed will play at Minnesota, while the lower remaining seed goes to New Orleans.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
Bitmap NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Dallas		104.4	106.2	105.6	6-2-0	217	152
Philadelphia		103.8	104.7	104.6	5-3-0	219	153
NY Giants		103.8	102.1	102.3	5-4-0	232	204
Washington		93.0	92.6	93.4	2-6-0	113	154
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota		106.5	105.8	106.6	7-1-0	244	174
Green Bay		99.6	99.5	100.3	4-4-0	215	172
Chicago		98.6	98.2	99.9	4-4-0	180	191
Detroit		90.7	88.2	86.7	1-7-0	133	237
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans		114.1	112.5	111.2	8-0-0	303	174
Atlanta		104.3	104.2	104.0	5-3-0	202	166
Carolina		99.1	98.2	97.5	3-5-0	148	196
Tampa Bay		91.4	91.9	91.1	1-7-0	134	231
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona		103.8	104.3	103.3	5-3-0	198	164
San Francisco		98.6	98.6	98.1	3-5-0	174	174
Seattle		96.2	96.6	96.6	3-5-0	167	167
St. Louis		86.3	87.5	91.1	1-7-0	77	221
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England		111.5	108.8	108.7	6-2-0	225	115
NY Jets		101.5	102.9	101.4	4-4-0	177	134
Miami		99.4	102.8	99.7	3-5-0	193	204
Buffalo		96.3	96.2	96.0	3-5-0	123	169
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Pittsburgh		109.4	106.8	106.7	6-2-0	195	139
Baltimore		108.8	105.6	104.6	4-4-0	206	154
Cincinnati		105.0	105.2	105.5	6-2-0	180	135
Cleveland		88.0	89.4	88.2	1-7-0	78	209
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis		111.0	108.7	108.0	8-0-0	217	108
Houston		103.8	102.9	103.0	5-4-0	215	188
Tennessee		97.4	97.0	98.2	2-6-0	148	238
Jacksonville		92.2	94.6	97.3	4-4-0	157	198
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego		103.7	102.3	104.1	5-3-0	206	179
Denver		99.3	103.1	103.4	6-2-0	150	124
Oakland		89.3	90.8	91.7	2-6-0	78	201
Kansas City		88.5	91.9	91.2	1-7-0	126	205

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 10 = 2.4
Vegas Line as of 8:30PM EDT Tuesday
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
SAN FRANCISCO	Chicago	2.4	3.0	0.6	3	43 1/2
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
NEW YORK JETS	Jacksonville	11.7	10.7	6.5	7	40
Denver	WASHINGTON	3.9	8.1	7.6	3 1/2	36 1/2
PITTSBURGH	Cincinnati	6.8	4.0	3.6	7	41 1/2
TENNESSEE	Buffalo	3.5	3.2	4.6	6 1/2	40 1/2
MINNESOTA	Detroit	18.2	20.0	22.3	16 1/2	47 1/2
New Orleans	ST. LOUIS	25.4	22.6	17.7	13 1/2	50
Atlanta	CAROLINA	2.8	3.6	4.1	2	44 1/2
MIAMI	Tampa Bay	10.4	13.3	11.0	10	44
OAKLAND	Kansas City	3.2	1.3	2.9	2	36 1/2
ARIZONA	Seattle	10.0	10.1	9.1	8 1/2	47
SAN DIEGO	Philadelphia	2.3	0.0	1.9	2	47
Dallas	GREEN BAY	2.4	4.3	2.9	3	47 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	New England	1.9	2.3	1.7	3	49 1/2
Monday, November 16, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Baltimore	CLEVELAND	18.4	13.8	14.0	10 1/2	40

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Nine: November 8-9, 2009

Five Key Intra-Divisional Games Highlight Week

 

Week nine finds five key intra-divisional games as well as three other inter-divisional spectaculars.  Cincinnati beat the Ravens in Baltimore earlier in the season, and if the Bengals complete the sweep, Baltimore will find its playoff hopes beginning to dim.

 

Houston visits Indianapolis, and if the Colts win, they will be up four games at the halfway point of the season.  Should the Texans find a way to pull off the upset, Coach Gary Kubiak’s squad will climb to the top of the Wildcard bubble.

 

New England hosts Miami, and the Patriots are coming off a bye week.  A New England win will virtually clinch the AFC East title, but a Dolphin win throws the race open once again.

 

Carolina visits New Orleans in a game that looks like another easy win for the Saints.  However, the Panthers won at Arizona last week, and they could climb back in the playoff race with an upset.

 

Dallas visits Philadelphia, and to the winner goes first place in the NFC East.  It should be an exciting Sunday night game with scoring aplenty.

 

The other three big games are Arizona at Chicago, San Diego at New York (Giants), and Pittsburgh at Denver on Monday night.  All six of these teams are jockeying for playoff positioning.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
Bitmap NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Philadelphia		104.6	105.0	104.9	5-2-0	203	133
NY Giants		104.2	102.8	102.0	5-3-0	212	183
Dallas		103.6	104.8	104.7	5-2-0	197	136
Washington		93.0	92.9	92.4	2-5-0	96	123
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota		106.5	105.9	106.6	7-1-0	244	174
Green Bay		102.8	102.5	102.8	4-3-0	187	134
Chicago		100.9	100.8	101.5	4-3-0	159	150
Detroit		91.3	89.6	89.0	1-6-0	113	205
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans		114.6	112.5	112.0	7-0-0	273	154
Atlanta		104.3	104.2	104.1	4-3-0	171	149
Carolina		98.6	96.7	97.8	3-4-0	128	166
Tampa Bay		88.2	89.7	87.2	0-7-0	96	203
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona		101.5	102.3	101.3	4-3-0	157	143
San Francisco		101.1	100.7	102.1	3-4-0	147	140
Seattle		95.6	96.9	96.7	2-5-0	135	147
St. Louis		86.3	87.9	90.6	1-7-0	77	221
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England		111.7	108.3	108.8	5-2-0	198	98
NY Jets		101.5	103.3	100.9	4-4-0	177	134
Miami		99.2	102.5	102.1	3-4-0	176	177
Buffalo		96.3	96.2	98.5	3-5-0	123	169
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore		110.5	107.1	107.1	4-3-0	199	137
Pittsburgh		107.3	104.3	105.9	5-2-0	167	129
Cincinnati		103.3	103.4	104.3	5-2-0	163	128
Cleveland		88.0	90.4	85.5	1-7-0	78	209
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis		111.7	108.2	109.9	7-0-0	197	91
Houston		103.1	102.0	103.4	5-3-0	198	168
Tennessee		94.9	94.9	94.3	1-6-0	114	211
Jacksonville		92.4	94.6	96.8	3-4-0	133	177
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego		103.3	101.9	104.0	4-3-0	185	159
Denver		101.4	105.3	104.9	6-1-0	140	96
Oakland		89.3	90.6	89.9	2-6-0	78	201
Kansas City		88.3	92.2	88.3	1-6-0	105	181

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 9 = 2.3
Vegas Line as of 5:30PM EDT Tuesday
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
JACKSONVILLE	Kansas City	6.4	4.7	10.8	6	42
Baltimore	CINCINNATI	4.9	1.4	0.5	3	44
INDIANAPOLIS	Houston	10.9	8.5	8.8	9	47 1/2
ATLANTA	Washington	13.6	13.6	14.0	10 ½	41 1/2
Green Bay	TAMPA BAY	12.3	10.5	13.3	10	43 1/2
CHICAGO	Arizona	1.7	0.8	2.5	3	44
NEW ENGLAND	Miami	14.8	8.1	9.0	10 1/2	46 1/2
NEW ORLEANS	Carolina	18.3	18.1	16.5	13 1/2	51 1/2
SEATTLE	Detroit	6.6	9.6	10.0	10	43
SAN FRANCISCO	Tennessee	8.5	8.1	10.1	4	41
NEW YORK GIANTS	San Diego	3.2	3.2	0.3	5	47 1/2
PHILADELPHIA	Dallas	3.3	2.5	2.5	3	47 1/2
Monday, November 9, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Pittsburgh	DENVER	3.6	-3.3	-1.3	3	39 1/2

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Eight: November 1-2, 2009

All Eyes On The Frozen Tundra

Favre Returns to Green Bay

 

The date has been circled on thousands of calendars in the Badger state since August.  Rumors have it that almost three dozen hotel and motel rooms were reserved by friends and family even before the announcement had been made that Brett Favre was indeed signing with the Minnesota Vikings.  It’s finally here!  Favre returns to Lambeau Field for the first time since he left the Packers.  The last pass he threw at Lambeau was intercepted by New York Giants defensive back Corey Webster.  It broke the hearts of 73,000 fans who were all sure Green Bay was headed to the Super Bowl.

The Minnesota Vikings have many thousand loyal fans in Wisconsin. Near the town of Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin, is the Half-Way Bar.  It supposedly sits equidistant from Lambeau Field and the old Metropolitan Stadium in Bloomington, where the Vikings played before moving into the Metrodome (It is now the location of the Mall of America).  The eastern half of this bar is painted Green and Gold, while the western half of this bar is painted purple and white.  The patrons sip on Leininkugel’s beer, eat brats and fried cheese curds, and carry on like the other half of the bar doesn’t exist.  Well, at least that’s so until a Packer fan yells out something about the “ViQueens.”  Then, it becomes the Hatfield’s and McCoy’s bar.

Almost overlooked by the rivalry is the fact that this game is very important in the standings.  A Green Bay win moves the Packers just ½ game behind Minnesota.  A Viking win gives them a 2 ½ game lead plus a sweep over Green Bay.  How do the PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings see this game?  Look below; it’s should be one worth watching even if you have to go to the Half-Way Bar to do so.

Will this game be one of our picks against the spread this week?  It will cost you just $5 to get all of our picks.  Go to www.piratings.webs.com to purchase our picks for the week.  If you played with us last week, then our picks made you happy as they finished 8-2-1.  

NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Giants		105.5	105.0	105.9	5-2-0	195	143
Philadelphia		103.3	102.6	103.1	4-2-0	163	116
Dallas		102.7	104.3	104.6	4-2-0	159	119
Washington		93.0	93.1	92.0	2-5-0	96	123
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota		105.6	104.5	107.0	6-1-0	206	148
Green Bay		103.7	105.3	105.6	4-2-0	161	96
Chicago		100.2	99.6	98.9	3-3-0	129	144
Detroit		93.0	90.5	92.1	1-5-0	103	188
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans		115.0	113.5	113.7	6-0-0	238	127
Atlanta		103.9	102.4	103.8	4-2-0	144	114
Carolina		96.8	94.2	94.8	2-4-0	94	145
Tampa Bay		88.2	89.5	89.1	0-7-0	96	203
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona		103.3	104.5	105.3	4-2-0	136	109
San Francisco		100.3	100.4	99.1	3-3-0	133	122
Seattle		96.5	97.6	96.0	2-4-0	118	109
St. Louis		84.9	86.5	86.1	0-7-0	60	211
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England		111.7	108.8	109.7	5-2-0	198	98
NY Jets		102.0	104.1	101.4	4-3-0	152	104
Miami		98.7	101.9	99.7	2-4-0	146	152
Buffalo		97.6	97.3	96.7	3-4-0	113	138
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore		109.3	105.2	103.1	3-3-0	169	130
Pittsburgh		107.3	104.7	107.4	5-2-0	167	129
Cincinnati		103.3	103.1	104.5	5-2-0	163	128
Cleveland		88.7	90.9	89.5	1-6-0	72	179
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis		112.5	109.8	111.8	6-0-0	179	77
Houston		101.8	99.8	101.1	4-3-0	167	158
Tennessee		93.7	93.3	90.4	0-6-0	84	198
Jacksonville		93.6	96.7	96.4	3-3-0	120	147
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego		104.0	101.7	101.9	3-3-0	161	143
Denver		102.6	108.2	108.3	6-0-0	133	66
Oakland		88.6	89.6	91.0	2-5-0	62	177
Kansas City		88.3	91.5	90.1	1-6-0	105	181

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 7 = 2.2
Vegas Line as of 4:30PM EDT Tuesday
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
BALTIMORE	Denver	8.9	-0.8	-3.0	3 1/2	42
CHICAGO	Cleveland	13.7	10.9	11.6	13 1/2	40
Houston	BUFFALO	2.0	0.3	2.2	3	41 1/2
GREEN BAY	Minnesota	0.3	3.0	0.8	3	47 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	San Francisco	14.4	11.6	14.9	12	43 1/2
NEW YORK JETS	Miami	5.7	4.4	3.9	3	40 1/2
DETROIT	St. Louis	10.3	6.2	8.2	NL	NL
DALLAS	Seattle	8.4	8.9	10.8	9 1/2	46
SAN DIEGO	Oakland	17.6	14.3	13.1	16 1/2	41 1/2
TENNESSEE	Jacksonville	2.3	-1.2	-3.8	3	44 1/2
ARIZONA	Carolina	8.7	12.5	12.7	9 1/2	41
PHILADELPHIA	New York Giants	0.0	-0.2	-0.6	1 1/2	44
Monday, November 2, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
NEW ORLEANS	Atlanta	13.3	13.3	12.1	10	54 1/2

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Seven: October 25-26, 2009

Vikings-Steelers Headline The Week

 

Brett Favre is the modern day Y.A. Tittle.  Tittle was considered over-the-hill and washed up after 1960.  After playing three years with the Baltimore Colts, two of them in the old All American Football Conference, Tittle spent 10 years with the San Francisco 49ers.  In 1960, John Brodie took his job away.  Tittle went to the New York Giants for the 1961 season and spent four years starting as their quarterback.  His record as a starter for the Giants his first three years was 31-5-1, and his best statistical season was 1963 at the age of 37, when he led the NFL with a 104.8 passer rating.  Tittle led the Giants to the NFL Championship Game all three of those years.

 

History lesson over.  Favre is three years older now than Tittle was in 1963, but through six games, he is having his best year statistically in his career.  His 109.5 passer rating is almost 10 points higher than his previous best.  He’s completing nearly 70% of his passes, and he has 12 touchdown strikes to just two interceptions.

 

His counterpart Sunday, Ben Roethlisberger, is also off to his best ever start in the NFL.  His 104.5 Passer Rating looks all the more impressive when you throw in he is leading the AFC in passing yards. 

 

This should be quite an entertaining game this week, and who know?  We could be watching a preview of the Super Bowl. 

 

The other big game this week is New Orleans at Miami.  It’s awfully early in the season, but the Dolphins have quite a history for ending opposing teams’ undefeated seasons.  Miami is playing sound ball after beginning the season with three tough losses.  The Dolphins benefit from having an extra week to prepare for this game, and it’s their style of play that could put keep Drew Brees on the sideline longer than he needs to stay sharp.

 

We here wonder how the New England Patriots will be received in London.  Will the fans at Wembly Stadium cheer for the team with the word “England” in their title, or will they boo a team with the nickname of “Patriots?”  It won’t affect the game, because the team with the name “Tampa Bay” could hire Tony Blair or Gordon Brown as coach and perform no worse than they have to date.  Too bad the Bucs don’t play St. Louis or Tennessee.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Giants		107.6	106.3	106.6	5-1-0	178	119
Philadelphia		103.0	103.3	103.3	3-2-0	136	99
Dallas		99.7	102.4	102.4	3-2-0	122	98
Washington		93.3	93.7	91.6	2-4-0	79	96
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota		106.4	105.4	107.4	6-0-0	189	121
Chicago		103.0	103.3	103.3	3-2-0	119	99
Green Bay		101.5	101.9	103.3	3-2-0	130	93
Detroit		93.0	91.6	93.5	1-5-0	103	188
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans		113.8	112.2	111.4	5-0-0	192	93
Atlanta		106.6	105.1	105.6	4-1-0	123	77
Carolina		98.4	96.0	97.3	2-3-0	85	125
Tampa Bay		88.9	91.3	86.6	0-6-0	89	168
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona		100.9	103.5	103.5	3-2-0	112	92
San Francisco		100.5	100.2	101.6	3-2-0	112	98
Seattle		96.5	98.4	98.0	2-4-0	118	109
St. Louis		87.9	87.4	88.7	0-6-0	54	169
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England		111.0	107.2	107.5	4-2-0	163	91
NY Jets		99.6	101.2	100.4	3-3-0	114	104
Miami		98.8	100.9	100.4	2-3-0	112	106
Buffalo		96.0	96.4	95.7	2-4-0	93	129
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore		109.3	104.8	103.6	3-3-0	169	130
Pittsburgh		106.2	103.3	105.1	4-2-0	140	112
Cincinnati		100.5	99.9	102.1	4-2-0	118	118
Cleveland		91.4	93.2	92.3	1-5-0	69	148
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis		110.0	108.6	109.6	5-0-0	137	71
Houston		101.6	99.3	100.4	3-3-0	143	137
Tennessee		93.7	93.9	89.9	0-6-0	84	198
Jacksonville		93.6	96.8	95.3	3-3-0	120	147
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Denver		102.6	105.6	106.1	6-0-0	133	66
San Diego		101.7	100.5	101.9	2-3-0	124	136
Oakland		91.5	91.8	92.1	2-4-0	62	139
Kansas City		91.1	94.2	93.7	1-5-0	98	144

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 7 = 2.7
Vegas Line as of 7:30PM EDT Tuesday
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
San Diego	KANSAS CITY	7.9	3.6	5.5	5 1/2	44
Indianapolis	ST. LOUIS	19.4	18.5	17.9	13	45
CINCINNATI	Chicago	0.2	-0.7	1.5	1 1/2	41 1/2
Green Bay	CLEVELAND	7.4	6.0	8.3	7	41 1/2
PITTSBURGH	Minnesota	2.5	0.6	0.4	4	45
New England     (N)	Tampa Bay	22.1	15.9	20.9	15	45
HOUSTON	San Francisco	3.8	1.8	1.5	3	44
New York Jets	OAKLAND	5.4	6.7	5.6	6	34 1/2
CAROLINA	Buffalo	5.1	2.3	4.3	NL	NL
New Orleans	MIAMI	12.3	8.3	7.9	6	47
Atlanta	DALLAS	4.2	0.0	0.5	-4	47 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS	Arizona	9.4	5.5	5.8	7	46
Monday, October 26, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Philadelphia	WASHINGTON	7.0	6.9	9.0	7	37 1/2

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Six: October 18-19, 2009

NFL Week 6—Three Games Worth Watching

 

As we start the middle third of the NFL season, three week six games are worth noting.  The New Orleans Saints host the New York Giants in a battle of unbeaten teams.  With recent parity in the league, there haven’t been many recent matchups of unbeaten teams in week six.  In 2007, New England, on its way to a 16-0 regular season record, disposed of undefeated Dallas in week six.  Then, a few weeks later, the Patriots met an undefeated Indianapolis team and won.  

 

The Baltimore Ravens are facing a 3-3 record after beginning 3-0 if they cannot handle Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, and company at the Metrodome.  If the Vikings win, it will be their first 6-0 record since 1998, when they finished 15-1.

 

The Chicago Bears, coming off a bye week play at Atlanta.  The Falcons are fresh off a slaughter of the San Francisco 49ers.  The winner of this battle of 3-1 teams will have a leg up in the standings for a possible wildcard spot if neither can overtake their undefeated intra-divisional rivals.

 

There are potentially five really crappy ballgames this week.  Any and all five could see the favorite winning by three to five touchdowns.  Pittsburgh hosts a Cleveland team that can do little more than pass the ball to the line of scrimmage.  Jacksonville hosts St. Louis; if the Rams lose big in this one, they may be worse than last year’s Lions.  Oakland hosts Philadelphia.  The Raiders lost by 37 to the Giants last week and enjoy virtually no home field advantage any more.  If the Eagles come ready for slaughter, they could hang half a hundred on the Raiders this week.  The hapless Bills must face an angry Jets team at The Meadowlands.  If Buffalo couldn’t beat Cleveland when Derek Anderson completed just two of 17 passes, how will they stop the Jets’ potent and balanced offense?  New England is looking to take out their frustrations on somebody after letting one slip away in the cold Rocky Mountain air at Denver.  Lucky for the Patriots, they get an 0-5 Tennessee team that has no pass defense and appears to be ready to mail it in the rest of the season.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
Bitmap NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Giants		109.4	107.6	108.7	5-0-0	151	71
Philadelphia		105.8	105.8	107.0	3-1-0	127	86
Dallas		99.7	102.5	100.9	3-2-0	122	98
Washington		94.4	95.4	94.2	2-3-0	73	82
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota		105.8	105.4	106.9	5-0-0	156	90
Chicago		103.5	103.7	104.3	3-1-0	105	78
Green Bay		99.9	100.5	101.2	2-2-0	104	93
Detroit		94.6	93.0	95.0	1-4-0	103	162
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans		112.0	110.5	110.4	4-0-0	144	66
Atlanta		106.1	104.1	104.9	3-1-0	102	63
Carolina		98.3	96.3	95.2	1-3-0	57	104
Tampa Bay		89.0	92.4	89.6	0-5-0	68	140
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco		100.5	99.9	101.1	3-2-0	112	98
Seattle		99.2	100.7	99.8	2-3-0	115	82
Arizona		98.2	100.5	100.2	2-2-0	85	89
St. Louis		86.8	86.6	85.6	0-5-0	34	146
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England		107.7	104.9	105.4	3-2-0	104	91
NY Jets		101.6	102.8	103.7	3-2-0	101	88
Miami		98.8	100.9	100.4	2-3-0	112	106
Buffalo		94.0	94.6	93.4	1-4-0	77	116
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore		109.9	104.5	105.8	3-2-0	138	97
Pittsburgh		106.4	103.9	103.7	3-2-0	113	98
Cincinnati		102.1	101.5	104.8	4-1-0	101	90
Cleveland		91.2	93.2	92.5	1-4-0	55	121
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis		110.0	108.6	109.6	5-0-0	137	71
Houston		100.0	97.2	98.1	2-3-0	115	120
Tennessee		97.0	96.5	93.8	0-5-0	84	139
Jacksonville		94.7	98.2	97.9	2-3-0	97	127
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego		103.6	101.5	102.7	2-2-0	101	102
Denver		100.7	104.0	105.6	5-0-0	99	43
Kansas City		90.0	93.1	90.5	0-5-0	84	138
Oakland		88.7	89.7	87.1	1-4-0	49	130

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 6 = 2.7
Vegas Line as of 1:30PM Tuesday
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
WASHINGTON	Kansas City	7.1	5.0	6.4	6 1/2	37
CINCINNATI	Houston	4.8	7.0	9.4	5 1/2	45 1/2
PITTSBURGH	Cleveland	17.9	13.4	13.9	14	38
Baltimore	MINNESOTA	1.4	-3.6	-3.8	2 1/2	43 1/2
JACKSONVILLE	St. Louis	10.6	14.3	15.0	9 1/2	42
NEW ORLEANS	New York Giants	5.3	5.6	4.4	3	48
Carolina	TAMPA BAY	6.6	1.2	2.9	3 1/2	40
GREEN BAY	Detroit	8.0	10.2	8.9	13 1/2	48 1/2
Philadelphia	OAKLAND	14.4	13.4	17.2	14	40 1/2
SEATTLE	Arizona	3.7	2.9	2.3	2 1/2	47
NEW YORK JETS	Buffalo	10.3	10.9	13.0	10	38
NEW ENGLAND	Tennessee	13.4	11.1	14.3	9	43 1/2
ATLANTA	Chicago	5.3	3.1	3.3	3	46
Monday, October 19, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
SAN DIEGO	Denver	5.6	0.2	-0.2	4	44

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Five: October 11-12, 2009

Week five in the NFL finds three excellent games on the schedule.  Who would have thought that the Baltimore-Cincinnati game would be a contest with first place on the line?  Atlanta visits San Francisco in a battle where the winner will be in great shape for qualifying for the playoffs, even this early in the season.  Denver hosts New England in a game that will definitely affect the playoff race.  If the Broncos sit at 5-0 on Monday morning, you can go ahead and make playoff plans if you live in Denver.  The Broncos have five very winnable games left on the schedule, and 10-6 will win the AFC West.

 

The PiRate Picks against the spread (find them at www.piratings.webs.com), finished 8-4 last week, making our record for the year 25-15-1.  In the last three weeks, our winning percentage has been a sizzling 72% against the spread (18-7-0).

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
Bitmap NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Giants		108.1	106.7	107.3	4-0-0	107	64
Philadelphia		105.8	105.4	105.7	2-1-0	94	72
Dallas		100.3	102.8	101.1	2-2-0	96	78
Washington		94.2	95.4	96.9	2-2-0	56	62
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota		105.0	105.2	105.8	4-0-0	118	80
Chicago		103.5	103.5	103.7	3-1-0	105	78
Green Bay		99.9	101.1	101.3	2-2-0	104	93
Detroit		93.8	92.0	92.8	1-3-0	83	134
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans		112.0	112.5	109.3	4-0-0	144	66
Atlanta		103.6	99.1	103.1	2-1-0	57	53
Carolina		98.5	94.7	97.3	0-3-0	37	87
Tampa Bay		89.0	91.3	90.5	0-4-0	54	107
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco		103.0	103.5	104.8	3-1-0	102	53
Arizona		97.7	100.2	99.4	1-2-0	57	68
Seattle		95.7	97.3	97.9	1-3-0	74	82
St. Louis		87.6	87.0	84.0	0-4-0	24	108
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England		108.3	104.4	106.6	3-1-0	87	71
NY Jets		102.6	104.2	105.1	3-1-0	74	57
Miami		97.8	99.9	99.7	1-3-0	81	79
Buffalo		96.2	95.9	96.2	1-3-0	74	110
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore		110.1	106.6	107.1	3-1-0	124	80
Pittsburgh		107.2	104.5	105.2	2-2-0	85	78
Cincinnati		100.3	100.0	101.7	3-1-0	84	76
Cleveland		89.8	91.5	89.2	0-4-0	49	118
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis		107.5	109.5	107.8	4-0-0	106	62
Houston		100.5	97.8	100.1	2-2-0	94	92
Tennessee		99.5	97.7	96.6	0-4-0	75	108
Jacksonville		98.2	101.5	100.4	2-2-0	97	86
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego		103.6	100.7	101.9	2-2-0	101	102
Denver		100.1	105.4	104.3	4-0-0	79	26
Oakland		90.8	90.5	90.1	1-3-0	42	86
Kansas City		89.4	92.5	87.2	0-4-0	64	112

 

Vegas Lines Shown as of 7PM ET Tuesday

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 5 = 2.9
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Minnesota	ST. LOUIS	14.5	15.3	18.9	10	40
Dallas	KANSAS CITY	8.0	7.4	11.0	8 1/2	42 ½
CAROLINA	Washington	7.2	2.2	3.3	3 1/2	37
PHILADELPHIA	Tampa Bay	19.7	17.0	18.1	14	43 ½
N Y GIANTS	Oakland	20.2	19.1	20.1	16	39 ½
BUFFALO	Cleveland	9.3	7.3	9.9	6	40 ½
BALTIMORE	Cincinnati	12.7	9.5	8.3	8 1/2	42
Pittsburgh	DETROIT	16.3	15.4	15.3	10 1/2	44
SAN FRANCISCO	Atlanta	2.3	7.3	4.6	2 1/2	40 1/2
New England	DENVER	5.3	-3.9	-0.6	3	41
ARIZONA	Houston	0.1	5.3	2.2	5 1/2	48
SEATTLE	Jacksonville	0.4	-0.7	0.4	NL	NL
Indianapolis	TENNESSEE	5.1	8.9	8.3	3 1/2	45 1/2
Monday, October 12, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
N y Jets	MIAMI	1.9	1.4	2.5	1 1/2	36

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Four: October 4-5, 2009

NFL Playoff Picture Coming More Into Focus After Just Three Weeks

 

The PiRate Picks finished 6-1 Last Week—Go to www.piratings.webs.com to sign up for this week’s picks (deadline: 7PM Eastern Time Wednesdays)

 

Usually after three weeks, there are about three 3-0 teams and three 0-3 teams left in the NFL.  There are still seven undefeated teams and seven winless teams.  It looks like some of the playoff races are already on their way to being decided.

 

In the NFC, Tampa Bay and Carolina have already played themselves out of playoff contention.  St. Louis, Washington, and Detroit never had a chance, and Arizona and Seattle don’t appear to have it this year.  Six of the remaining nine teams will play in the postseason.  Count the Giants, Eagles, Saints, 49ers, and Vikings as clear-cut favorites for five of those spots.  The race for the final spot is between Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, and Dallas.

 

In the AFC, count out Kansas City, Oakland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Houston, Cleveland, Miami, and Buffalo.  Indianapolis just about has the South title secured.  It’s doubtful that any other AFC South team will qualify as a wildcard.  The Patriots and Jets should both qualify from the East, and Baltimore should qualify out of the North.  Pittsburgh has lost both games since the injury of Troy Polamalu, and both losses came from a breakdown in the secondary.  The Steelers could finish at 9-7 and be on the outside looking in.  Cincinnati is one freak play away from being 3-0, and the Bengals could take advantage of a softer schedule to sneak through with a 9-7 record.  9-7 may not qualify, because in the West Division, Denver and San Diego should both go 4-0 against their two weak sisters and both win double digit games.

 

Here’s a look at this week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings, as well as the schedule of games with the spreads.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
Bitmap NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Giants		107.8	106.5	106.2	3-0-0	80	48
Philadelphia		105.8	105.7	105.1	2-1-0	94	72
Dallas		100.6	103.4	101.8	2-1-0	86	61
Washington		94.7	96.5	94.7	1-2-0	40	49
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota		104.8	104.4	104.6	3-0-0	88	57
Chicago		103.2	102.1	102.6	2-1-0	57	54
Green Bay		100.1	100.9	101.8	2-1-0	81	63
Detroit		94.1	93.3	95.2	1-2-0	59	86
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans		111.5	109.8	108.5	3-0-0	120	56
Atlanta		103.6	100.2	102.6	2-1-0	57	53
Carolina		98.5	95.7	96.2	0-3-0	37	87
Tampa Bay		88.5	92.6	91.5	0-3-0	41	91
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco		102.1	102.4	103.1	2-1-0	67	53
Arizona		97.7	100.1	99.9	1-2-0	57	68
Seattle		96.8	97.8	98.4	1-2-0	57	48
St. Louis		88.5	88.8	88.9	0-3-0	24	73
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England		107.7	104.3	104.9	2-1-0	60	50
NY Jets		103.1	104.2	104.5	3-0-0	64	33
Buffalo		97.6	98.2	99.8	1-2-0	64	72
Miami		96.4	96.9	97.2	0-3-0	43	69
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore		110.7	107.2	107.0	3-0-0	103	53
Pittsburgh		106.1	103.5	103.2	1-2-0	47	50
Cincinnati		100.8	100.3	101.2	2-1-0	61	56
Cleveland		89.3	91.2	88.4	0-3-0	29	95
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis		106.4	106.1	106.5	3-0-0	72	45
Tennessee		102.3	100.6	99.5	0-3-0	58	71
Houston		99.3	96.5	98.3	1-2-0	65	86
Jacksonville		95.4	98.2	98.5	1-2-0	60	69
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego		104.7	103.6	103.8	2-1-0	73	64
Denver		99.8	102.8	102.7	3-0-0	62	16
Oakland		92.0	94.0	92.8	1-2-0	36	57
Kansas City		89.7	92.5	90.8	0-3-0	48	85

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 4 = 2.8
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
HOUSTON	Oakland	10.1	5.3	8.3	9 1/2	42
Tennessee	JACKSONVILLE	4.1	-0.4	-1.8	3	41 1/2
Baltimore	NEW ENGLAND	0.2	0.1	-0.5	2	44 1/2
Cincinnati	CLEVELAND	8.7	6.3	10.0	5 1/2	38 1/2
New York Giants	KANSAS CITY	15.3	11.2	12.6	9	42 1/2
CHICAGO	Detroit	11.9	11.6	10.2	10	38 1/2
WASHINGTON	Tampa Bay	9.0	7.3	6.0	7	37
INDIANAPOLIS	Seattle	12.4	11.1	10.9	NL	NL
NEW ORLEANS	New York Jets	11.2	8.4	6.8	6 1/2	45 1/2
MIAMI	Buffalo	1.6	1.5	0.2	-2	36 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO	St. Louis	16.4	16.4	17.0	10	37 1/2
DENVER	Dallas	2.0	2.2	3.7	3	43
PITTSBURGH	San Diego	5.2	2.7	2.2	6 1/2	43
Monday, October 5, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
MINNESOTA	Green Bay	7.5	6.3	6.6	3 1/2	46

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Three–September 27-28, 2009

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Giants		105.6	104.5	106.1	2-0-0	56	48
Philadelphia		105.3	104.6	104.3	1-1-0	60	58
Dallas		98.5	102.6	101.3	1-1-0	65	54
Washington		96.3	97.8	97.5	1-1-0	26	30
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota		104.9	104.0	105.3	2-0-0	61	33
Chicago		102.7	100.7	102.4	1-1-0	32	35
Green Bay		98.8	99.4	100.1	1-1-0	45	46
Detroit		92.8	91.9	90.8	0-2-0	40	72
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans		108.8	108.0	108.0	2-0-0	93	49
Atlanta		105.1	102.2	103.1	2-0-0	47	27
Carolina		100.2	96.8	96.9	0-2-0	30	66
Tampa Bay		91.4	95.1	93.6	0-2-0	41	67
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco		101.9	101.6	103.0	2-0-0	43	26
Arizona		101.0	102.0	102.3	1-1-0	47	37
Seattle		97.3	99.5	99.8	1-1-0	38	23
St. Louis		90.6	91.5	90.9	0-2-0	7	37
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England		105.9	103.0	104.6	1-1-0	34	40
NY Jets		101.8	103.7	104.6	2-0-0	40	16
Buffalo		99.9	100.3	100.5	1-1-0	57	45
Miami		96.5	97.4	98.7	0-2-0	30	46
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore		107.7	106.3	106.9	2-0-0	69	50
Pittsburgh		106.7	104.3	105.1	1-1-0	27	27
Cincinnati		99.9	98.3	98.3	1-1-0	38	36
Cleveland		91.9	92.4	87.7	0-2-0	26	61
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Tennessee		103.9	100.5	100.7	0-2-0	41	47
Indianapolis		102.9	103.2	104.7	2-0-0	41	35
Houston		101.8	97.8	100.4	1-1-0	41	55
Jacksonville		92.6	97.5	94.9	0-2-0	29	45
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego		104.6	102.9	102.6	1-1-0	50	51
Denver		97.2	100.4	98.2	2-0-0	39	13
Oakland		95.1	95.9	95.1	1-1-0	33	34
Kansas City		90.0	94.3	91.9	0-2-0	34	51

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 3 = 2.8
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
NEW YORK JETS	Tennessee	0.7	6.0	6.7	3	37
HOUSTON	Jacksonville	12.0	3.1	8.3	3 1/2	46 1/2
PHILADELPHIA	Kansas City	18.1	13.1	15.2	NL	NL
BALTIMORE	Cleveland	18.6	16.7	22.0	13	38 1/2
New York Giants	TAMPA BAY	11.4	6.6	9.7	6 1/2	44
Washington	DETROIT	0.7	3.1	3.9	6 1/2	38 1/2
Green Bay	ST. LOUIS	5.4	5.1	6.4	6 1/2	41
MINNESOTA	San Francisco	5.8	5.2	5.1	6 1/2	40
NEW ENGLAND	Atlanta	3.6	3.6	4.3	4	44 1/2
Chicago	SEATTLE	2.6	-1.6	-0.2	2	37
New Orleans	BUFFALO	6.1	4.9	4.7	6	51 1/2
SAN DIEGO	Miami	10.9	8.3	6.7	6	44
Pittsburgh	CINCINNATI	4.0	3.2	4.0	4	37
OAKLAND	Denver	0.7	-1.7	-0.3	-1 1/2	36
ARIZONA	Indianapolis	0.9	1.6	0.4	2 1/2	47 1/2
Monday, September 28, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
DALLAS	Carolina	1.1	8.6	7.2	9	47

 

For the PiRate Picks of the week, please go to: www.piratings.webs.com

NFL Football Week 2 PiRate Ratings and Spreads

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Philadelphia		107.2	107.9	108.5	1-0-0	38	10
N Y Giants		105.6	106.2	107.9	1-0-0	23	17
Dallas		98.8	103.2	104.1	1-0-0	34	21
Washington		98.8	99.6	100.4	0-1-0	17	23
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased
Minnesota		105.7	103.7	105.6	1-0-0	34	20
Chicago		101.8	100.3	101.7	0-1-1	15	21
Green Bay		101.2	101.5	102.4	1-0-0	21	15
Detroit		91.7	91.2	91.9	0-1-0	27	45
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans		106.4	103.7	105.7	1-0-0	45	27
Atlanta		104.9	102.0	104.5	1-0-0	19	7
Carolina		100.6	98.7	100.6	0-1-0	10	38
Tampa Bay		92.4	97.0	96.8	0-1-0	21	34
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco		99.2	97.4	101.2	1-0-0	20	16
Seattle		99.2	99.2	101.6	1-0-0	28	0
Arizona		98.6	99.3	100.9	0-1-0	16	20
St. Louis		88.9	89.0	89.7	0-1-0	0	28
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England		106.7	105.7	106.2	1-0-0	25	24
N Y Jets		100.6	101.0	102.2	1-0-0	24	7
Buffalo		98.9	98.4	100.7	0-1-0	24	25
Miami		97.9	97.3	99.7	0-1-0	7	19
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased
Pittsburgh		107.4	108.2	107.4	1-0-0	13	10
Baltimore		106.9	106.0	107.5	1-0-0	38	24
Cincinnati		97.5	95.6	98.7	0-1-0	7	12
Cleveland		95.0	94.3	96.2	0-1-0	20	34
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased
Tennessee		107.0	104.6	104.8	0-1-0	10	13
Indianapolis		101.3	105.4	105.6	1-0-0	14	12
Houston		99.0	96.4	99.2	0-1-0	7	24
Jacksonville		95.1	99.0	100.1	0-1-0	12	14
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego		105.2	103.4	104.2	1-0-0	24	20
Oakland		95.2	94.2	98.0	0-1-0	20	24
Denver		94.9	96.8	96.0	1-0-0	12	7
Kansas City		90.0	93.3	93.1	0-1-0	24	38

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 2 = 2.5
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oakland	KANSAS CITY	2.7	-1.6	2.4
TENNESSEE	Houston	10.5	10.7	8.1
New England	NEW YORK JETS	3.6	2.2	1.5
GREEN BAY	Cincinnati	6.2	9.7	6.2
Minnesota	DETROIT	16.5	15.0	16.2
PHILADELPHIA	New Orleans	3.3	6.7	5.3
ATLANTA	Carolina	6.8	5.8	6.4
WASHINGTON	St. Louis	12.4	13.1	13.2
Arizona	JACKSONVILLE	1.0	-2.2	-1.7
SAN FRANCISCO	Seattle	2.5	0.7	2.1
BUFFALO	Tampa Bay	9.0	3.9	6.4
DENVER	Cleveland	2.4	3.7	2.3
SAN DIEGO	Baltimore	0.8	-0.1	-0.8
Pittsburgh	CHICAGO	3.1	5.4	3.2
New York Giants	DALLAS	4.3	0.5	1.3
Monday, September 21, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Indianapolis	MIAMI	0.9	5.6	3.4

NFL Football Week 1 PiRate Ratings and Spreads

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East		Rating	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Philadelphia		102.1	106.5	107.2	0-0-0	0	0
New York		102.0	105.8	107.0	0-0-0	0	0
Washington		95.2	99.6	100.2	0-0-0	0	0
Dallas		93.4	102.2	101.0	0-0-0	0	0
NFC North		Rating	Mean	Biased
Minnesota		101.8	102.5	105.2	0-0-0	0	0
Chicago		98.5	100.9	101.2	0-0-0	0	0
Green Bay		97.3	100.6	102.1	0-0-0	0	0
Detroit		88.4	90.7	92.3	0-0-0	0	0
NFC South		Rating	Mean	Biased
New Orleans		102.5	101.8	104.0	0-0-0	0	0
Atlanta		101.1	101.6	102.4	0-0-0	0	0
Carolina		98.5	102.5	103.3	0-0-0	0	0
Tampa Bay		90.6	98.2	96.7	0-0-0	0	0
NFC West		Rating	Mean	Biased
Arizona		96.3	101.7	101.5	0-0-0	0	0
San Francisco		94.3	96.1	98.2	0-0-0	0	0
Seattle		93.4	95.7	98.5	0-0-0	0	0
St. Louis		87.5	90.5	90.9	0-0-0	0	0
AFC East		Rating	Mean	Biased
New England		104.2	106.2	108.8	0-0-0	0	0
New York		94.7	98.5	97.5	0-0-0	0	0
Miami		94.5	99.2	101.8	0-0-0	0	0
Buffalo		94.2	96.9	96.5	0-0-0	0	0
AFC North		Rating	Mean	Biased
Pittsburgh		104.0	109.5	108.8	0-0-0	0	0
Baltimore		103.5	106.4	106.9	0-0-0	0	0
Cincinnati		94.2	96.5	95.8	0-0-0	0	0
Cleveland		91.7	94.5	94.9	0-0-0	0	0
AFC South		Rating	Mean	Biased
Tennessee		103.2	105.3	105.4	0-0-0	0	0
Indianapolis		97.9	105.8	106.2	0-0-0	0	0
Houston		97.7	99.5	100.7	0-0-0	0	0
Jacksonville		91.3	98.2	97.4	0-0-0	0	0
AFC West		Rating	Mean	Biased
San Diego		102.0	103.9	105.5	0-0-0	0	0
Oakland		91.2	94.0	94.7	0-0-0	0	0
Denver		91.0	95.6	95.0	0-0-0	0	0
Kansas City		86.2	92.8	92.9	0-0-0	0	0

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in Bold	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 1 = 2.8
Thursday, September 10
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PITTSBURGH	Tennessee	3.6	7.0	6.2	6	35
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
ATLANTA	Miami	9.3	5.2	3.4	4	43
BALTIMORE	Kansas City	20.1	16.4	16.8	13	36
Philadelphia	CAROLINA	0.8	1.2	1.1	1	43 1/2
CINCINNATI	Denver	6.0	3.7	3.6	4 1/2	43 1/2
Minnesota	CLEVELAND	7.3	5.2	7.5	4	40
HOUSTON	N. Y. Jets	5.8	3.8	6.0	4 1/2	43
INDIANAPOLIS	Jacksonville	9.4	10.4	11.6	7	44 1/2
NEW ORLEANS	Detroit	16.9	13.9	14.5	13	48 1/2
Dallas	TAMPA BAY	0.0	1.2	1.5	6	39
ARIZONA	San Francisco	4.8	8.4	6.1	6 1/2	46 1/2
N. Y. Giants	Washington	9.6	9.0	9.6	6 1/2	37 1/2
SEATTLE	St. Louis	8.7	8.0	10.4	8 1/2	41 1/2
GREEN BAY	Chicago	1.6	2.5	3.7	3 1/2	46 1/2
Monday, September 14, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
NEW ENGLAND	Buffalo	12.8	12.1	15.1	11	47 1/2
San Diego	OAKLAND	8.0	7.1	8.0	9 1/2	43