The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 12, 2013

PiRate Picks for College and NFL Football–September 12-16, 2013

A Week to Forget

Historically, the second week of the college football season and the first week of the NFL season has been a good one for us, but we stunk up the joint with our picks last week.  There is a reason the books call them “teasers.”  They tease you into thinking these selections are so easy to win, but they are quite the opposite.  Most people lose their shirts playing these sucker selections, but we have done quite well with them in the past due to the crossing of certain key numbers.  Oh, well: we wagered $0, so we would have either won big and collected $0, or lost big and lost $0.  That is how we suggest you wager as well—just for the fun of it.

 

This week, we have the following 17 fun selections for you to peruse.

 

College Sides

1. Texas Tech +3 ½ vs. T C U

2. Troy +8 vs. Arkansas St.

3. Louisville -13 ½ vs. Kentucky

4. Ohio U +8 ½ vs. Marshall

5. Virginia Tech -7 ½ vs. East Carolina

6. Connecticut +7 vs. Maryland

7. Wake Forest -3 vs. Louisiana-Monroe

8. Western Kentucky – 9 ½ vs. South Alabama

9. Illinois +10 vs. Washington

 

N F L Sides

10. Baltimore -6 ½ vs. Cleveland

11. Indianapolis -2 ½ vs. Miami

12. Oakland -5 ½ vs. Jacksonville

 

College Totals

13. Connecticut & Maryland UNDER 48

 

14. 10-point Teaser

Western Kentucky + ½ vs. South Alabama

UCLA +14 ½ vs. Nebraska

Texas +7 ½ vs. Ole Miss

 

15. 10-point Teaser

Illinois +20 vs. Washington

Ohio St. -5 ½ vs. California

Northwestern -20 vs. Western Michigan

 

16. 13-point Teaser

Bowling Green + 15 ½ vs. Indiana

Virginia Tech +5 ½ vs. East Carolina

Connecticut +19 ½ vs. Maryland

Florida St. -20 ½ vs. Nevada

 

17. 13-point Teaser

Iowa St. +15 ½ vs. Iowa

Alabama +5 vs. Texas A&M

Auburn +7 ½ vs. Mississippi St.

South Carolina – ½ vs. Vanderbilt

 

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September 11, 2013

PiRate Ratings for NFL Week 2: September 15-16, 2013

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:38 am

PiRate Ratings—NFL Week 2—September 15-16, 2013

 

It is always quite whimsical for us old geezers at the PiRate Ratings when the opening week of the season brings a good share of surprises.  It still amazes us how quickly the media and the public change their opinions so quickly.  Let’s look at a few examples:

1. Before: The New York Jets were the worst team in football since the Detroit Lions went 0-16.  They had absolutely no chance this year, and Rex Ryan would be gone before the end of September.

After the Jets beat Tampa Bay: Rex Ryan proved he still knows how to coach defense.  The Jets have their new comeback king in Geno Smith.  This team could challenge the Patriots for the AFC East Crown.

2. Before: The Hurry-up Oregon Duck offense that Chip Kelly used in college could never succeed in the NFL, because the defensive players are too quick and strong for a gimmick like the spread to work.  Michael Vick won’t last a half.

After: What can the rest of the league do to slow down this unstoppable offense?  Teams don’t rush for close to 300 yards in an NFL game unless they have O. J. Simpson slashing through the line, or they have Larry Csonka and Mercury Morris in a split backfield.  Just how long will it be before 10 other teams are running some form of this offense?  It has always been our opinion that the split backfield used for years in the NFL was still an excellent philosophy where a halfback ran mostly off-tackle, sweeps, and traps, and a fullback ran the line plunges.  The Spread is similar to a split backfield in the zone read, where the QB reads the defense like in the veer and either gives on the dive or keeps off-tackle.  It is the best of both worlds, because offenses can still keep three or even four wideouts.

3. Before: The Pittsburgh Steelers were a team to watch out for this year, because they were mad and ready to seek revenge for a so-so season.

After: The Steelers cannot score points, and they are doomed.  They were basically shut out by the lowly Tennessee Titans in week one, getting a gift safety on the opening kickoff and then scoring a mop-up touchdown late when behind 16-2 and with the Titans in a dime package and playing quarters defense allowing 20 yard passes to be completed underneath.  The Dick Lebeau defense had its moments, but it gave up too many first down conversions.

4. Before: The Raiders will definitely have the first pick in the 2014 draft.  They may win less games than the Jaguars and Jets.

After: They may not be ready to return to their glory days, but Indianapolis had to come from behind to beat the visiting silver and black.  Oakland is much better than advertised, and the Raiders could win six or seven games.

5. Before: Norv Turner was the reason San Diego lost so many games where they blew leads.

After: Mike McCoy is no better than Norv Turner, and the Chargers will continue to look great losing late.

6. Before: Dallas is never going to return to their glory days with Jerry Jones micromanaging his team.

After: The Giants have been dismissed, and this is the Cowboys’ division to win.  The two new (old) coordinators still know their stuff, and Dallas will win like it is 1966 through 1995.

7. Chicago’s offense will struggle under Mark Trestman, because Jay Cutler is not his prototypical quarterback.

After: Trestman and Cutler look like a perfect marriage.  The Bears looked fantastic in the winning touchdown drive.

We could go on and on.  The Patriots were supposed to slaughter the Bills.  The Falcons were too good for the Saints.  The 49ers had too much going on to be as good as the last two years.  About the only expected outcomes, if you count the so-called pundits expectations as valid, were:

1. The Kansas City Chiefs looked like the team they are being hyped as, but they played Jacksonville.

2. Denver looks like the strongest team since the 2007 Patriots.

3. Seattle’s defense looks even better this year, and they won on the road on the Atlantic Coast.

4. Green Bay still has the great offense, but once again, their defense is going to cost them some games.

5. The NFC West, once the weak sister of the NFL is now the king.  The Rams could win two or three other divisions, but they will be fortunate to finish third in this one.  They could still sneak into the playoffs.  The Cardinals look like a much improved team, more like the one that started 2012 than the one that ended it.

Week 2 presents some interesting games.  Here is what we have to look forward to this weekend.

1. The Jets and Patriots:  it isn’t the Red Sox and the Yankees, but it is just as intense.  Bill Belichick likes Rex Ryan about as much as Joe Girardi likes Buck Showalter.  Look for this game to be very physical and very testy.  The Patriots have just enough vulnerabilities for a defensive guru like Ryan to exploit.  Don’t think for a minute that the Jets plan to pressure Tom Brady and try to get him out of this game.

2. The Rams and Falcons: St. Louis has the talent to send Atlanta to 0-2, and if this should happen, then the NFC West just went from strong to crazy.  Because both San Francisco and Seattle cannot possibly win this week, the Rams have a chance to go one game up on one of them (remote chance to go one half game up on both).  Atlanta must consider this game a must-win already, because they cannot afford to drop two games behind Drew Brees and company.

3. The Bears and Vikings: This looks like a must-win road game for the purple and white.  A loss sends them two games behind Chicago and possibly two games behind Detroit.  A win would keep them alive in the division and possibly cause a four-way tie at 1-1.  If the Bears win, the mighty momentum could send them on the way to matching our bettering their 10-win season of 2012.

4. The Packers and Redskins:  One of these teams will be 0-2 by Sunday afternoon, and like the other possible 0-2 teams, only around 10% of these teams recover and make the playoffs.  Both teams also have intra-divisional rivals that could be 2-0.

5. The Colts and Dolphins: This game looks like an interestingly close contest.  Should Miami win, the Dolphins will have started 2-0 with both wins on the road.  Teams that begin 2-0 on the road make the playoffs 83.3% of the time in the 21st Century.  Actually in only one season has a team started 2-0 on the road and failed to make the playoffs.  Uh Oh—it was the 2010 Miami Dolphins.  This game is important for Indianapolis as well.  A come-from-behind win over Oakland is not a statement victory.  A loss to the fish might prove as a sign that this team is not going to suffer a sophomore slump.

6. The Cowboys and Chiefs:  This one has become a lot more important than it might have been had the week one outcomes been different.  All of a sudden, this looks like a game between two playoff worthy teams rather than a game between two mediocre teams.  Our three ratings show this contest to be the most competitive of the week.

7. The Eagles and Chargers:  The Chargers get one less day to prepare for this offense, and they have to travel 2,000 miles across three time zones.  NFL offenses usually perform better in the second game than in the first after working out some kinks.  Could we be looking at an Oregon-like score this week?  Is it possible that Philly could top 50?  On the other hand, can David Rivers prove he can be a star for four quarters and not two and a half?  San Diego’s passing attack could keep the hurry-up off the field just long enough for the Chargers not to have to result to developing a lot of cramps.  Isn’t it funny how theses teams’ offensive stars never develop cramps?  You would think the wide receivers and running backs would be the most likely to need help off the field.  What a strange coincidence that it is just the defensive players that can most easily be replaced that develop these cramps.

8. The Giants and Broncos: The renewal of the Manning Bowl finds Peyton as the cherry on top of the hot fudge sundae, and Eli in the bottom of the compost pile.  Peyton had three extra days to study the Giants’ run of the mill defense, and New York had to play the night game on Sunday.

9. The 49ers and Seahawks:  This one is our favorite game of the week and one of our favorites of the season.  We have this little historical vignette to tell you how we compare this game to rivalries of years gone by.

We are of the age where we look back to yesteryear with fond thoughts, where everything was great.  Okay, the second half of the 1960’s were not so great, but on Sunday afternoons in the fall, we had the old American Football League, the renegade league that went head-to-head with the infallible NFL and forced a merger.  The NFL was the league of conservative, brawn over brains football.  The AFL was the gunslinger league.  In those four seasons where the AFL champion met the NFL champion, the Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs played against each other like they were fighting their own civil war.  In 1966, Kansas City was king.  Len Dawson and Mike Garrett led an unstoppable offense, and the defense was huge in that timeframe.  Buck Buchanan looked more like a 21st Century defensive lineman.  Oakland was up and coming with talent throughout.  The Raiders lacked a proven QB that could get them over the hump.  Kansas City won the AFL and played in the first Super Bowl.  However, they could not sweep the Raiders.  Oakland won by three touchdowns at KC Municipal Stadium.

In 1967, Oakland owner Al Davis picked up the backup quarterback from Buffalo and made him his starter.  Overnight, Daryle Lamonica became known as “The Mad Bomber.”  The former Notre Dame standout began making the vertical passing game the biggest offensive threat in football.  A punishing defense that pulverized enemy quarterbacks made the Raiders the best team in the history of the AFL.  In the opening week, they beat Denver 51-0, holding the Broncos to negative total yards!

Meanwhile, the rest of the AFL discovered that if they stopped the Chiefs’ running game and threw the ball to the intermediate zones, they could beat Kansas City.  Oakland swept the Chiefs and won the AFL with a 13-1 record and a 40-7 blowout of Eastern Division winner Houston.  Kansas City slumped all the way down to 9-5.

Neither team won the AFL in 1968, although both were probably better than the World Champion New York Jets.  The Chiefs recovered to tie Oakland at 12-2 in the Western Division.  KC coach Hank Stram proved just how much of a coaching genius he was when the Chiefs were forced to host Oakland with zero healthy wide receivers.  Rather than try to pick up some stiffs on the waiver wire, he secretly changed the entire offense overnight.  He installed the old full-house T-formation with three running backs and two tight ends.  Oakland could not stop the incredible ground game with both ultimate power and ultimate deception.  Quarterback Len Dawson attempted just three passes all day, all of them off play-action, and the Chiefs ran the ball as effectively as Philadelphia did on Monday night.  They beat the Raiders that day.  After that week, the Raiders were a mad group of pirates, and they did not lose again in the regular season.  They marauded opponents topping 30 points in seven of the final eight games.  Included in this 8-0 finish was a revenge win over Kansas City and the infamous “Heidi Game” win over the New York Jets.

In those days, there were no tiebreakers to determine which team won the division, so when both The Chiefs and Raiders finished tied at 12-2, they had to meet in a playoff to determine the winner.  The winner of that game would then face the 11-3 Jets, the 11-3 rested Jets, for the AFL title a week later.  The Mad Bomber became nuclear that day, as Lamonica completed three first quarter long passes into Oakland touchdowns and two other bombs for scores to total 5 passing TDs, en route to a 41-6 win over the Chiefs.  The silver and black defense intercepted Dawson four times.  It was no doubt that this Raider team had enough talent to make Super Bowl III competitive against either Baltimore over Cleveland.

Except, the Raiders didn’t get that opportunity.  A week later, Oakland was a little flat against Broadway Joe Namath and the Jets.  The Raiders started slow and spotted the Jets a touchdown and field goal early.  They fought back to tie the score at 13-13 early in the third quarter, and they even took the lead in the fourth quarter.  However, in the final seven minutes of the game, the Raiders’ defense looked spent, and Namath exploited the tired pursuit for the decisive winning touchdown drive.  It was New York and not Oakland that pulled off the great Super Bowl III upset that basically proved to fans all over the country that the two leagues were now on par.

Oakland entered 1969 with a new head coach.  John Rauch, the genius behind the vertical passing game used by Lamonica had finally experienced too much meddling from owner Davis.  He left for lowly Buffalo and never really enjoyed much success with the Bills and their new phenom O. J. Simpson.  Enter one John Madden as Raiders’ coach.  The vertical passing game was still around, but Madden preferred more high percentage passes and a little more emphasis on the power running game.  Still, Oakland looked like the best team in the league.

Kansas City still had the best defense in the league, but their offense was starting to show more holes, similar to the troubles of 1967.  Dawson nursed injuries into early December, and it was debatable if he would play again after midseason.  Numerous second, third, and fourth opinions were sought to find a physician that would state it was okay for him to play.

The Jets were still strong in the East, but they were most certainly the third best team in the league.

Oakland beat Kansas City three times in 1969, but it was not enough, because the Chiefs got a fourth chance and won when it counted.  In the final year of the AFL’s existence, the now 10-team league decided to add the two second-place finishers to the playoff after seeing how much publicity the 1968 playoff game had created for the league.

Oakland finished 12-1-1, making their three year regular season record 37-4-1, the best of all time for a three-year run.  The Chiefs finished second at 11-3.  In the East, the Jets had no real competition and fiddled to a 10-4 record.  Houston had already secured second place in the Eastern Division, but going into the final week, the Oilers were just 5-6-2.  A loss to Boston would put them in the playoffs at 5-7-2, and it almost happened.  Three fourth quarter scores allowed the Oilers to finish the regular season with a .500 record.

In the first round of the AFL Playoffs, Houston had to play at Oakland.  The Raiders were a double-digit favorite, but this game looked more like the NFL All-Stars against a first-year expansion team.  Oakland quickly scored four touchdowns in the first 12 minutes and cruised to the second largest winning playoff margin in pro football history, 56-7.

The Chiefs saw to it that there would be no repeat for the AFL title game.  Their defense completely stopped Namath, while the offense mounted one nice drive for the winning touchdown in a 13-6 victory.

Now it was one final Chiefs-Raiders game to decide the Super Bowl IV participant and close out league play.  Oakland had defeated Kansas City in the preseason and swept them in the regular season, but Kansas City had one final try.  This time, the winner would face the dominant Minnesota Vikings for the World Championship.

Once again, the Chiefs’ defense proved too tough for even the most potent offense.  Lamonica could never penetrate the Kansas City secondary, and the Chief pass rush dumped him multiple times and forced him to throw off target.  Chief defensive back Emmitt Thomas picked up a pair of passes and set up a score with a long return.

Kansas City did nothing on offense either, but their defense gave them much less field to cover to score in a 17-7 lackluster win.

The Chiefs went on to pull off an equally monumental Super Bowl upset than their brethren Jets had pulled off the year before.  They stunned the Vikings, with the defense once again shutting down the opponent.

Back to the present, we see the 49ers and Seahawks as the new 21st Century version of the Chiefs and Raiders.  There is a rivalry here that is similar to that old rivalry.  It began when then Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh and then Southern Cal coach Pete Carroll did not particularly like each other.  While at Stanford, Harbaugh took a 41-point underdog Cardinal team to Los Angeles and pulled the greatest pointspread upset in college football history, ending a 35-game home winning streak for the Trojans.  He did it with a backup quarterback starting his first game ever.  Before leaving for the NFL, Harbaugh’s Cardinal ran up the score on Carroll’s Trojans in 2009.

The 49ers now have the 1960’s persona of their cross-bay rival Oakland, while Seattle takes on the persona of the 1960’s Chiefs.  The Seahawks are the challenger, while the 49ers are the champions.  If history is to pan out, then this should be the season where Seattle scrapes by San Francisco by a game or two.  Of course with the expanded playoffs, there is a chance that the two could face off for the NFC Championship, just like 1969.  This game should be one you do not want to miss.

Now, we continue with our weekly ratings and spreads.

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New York Giants

101.3

101.2

100.2

Dallas Cowboys

100.7

102.9

100.8

Washington Redskins

97.9

96.8

96.8

Philadelphia Eagles

96.5

97.9

96.5

 

 

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Green Bay Packers

105.9

104.9

105.4

Chicago Bears

101.7

102.8

102.0

Detroit Lions

99.1

101.8

99.5

Minnesota Vikings

98.8

97.0

97.3

 

 

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Atlanta Falcons

103.2

104.8

102.5

New Orleans Saints

102.1

103.8

102.2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

98.4

97.1

98.3

Carolina Panthers

98.3

97.6

97.9

 

 

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

San Francisco 49ers

108.6

107.9

108.9

Seattle Seahawks

105.7

105.7

105.7

St. Louis Rams

98.5

99.7

97.8

Arizona Cardinals

95.2

97.7

94.9

 

 

 

 

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New England Patriots

107.8

102.1

108.2

Miami Dolphins

99.4

100.5

100.6

New York Jets

96.4

94.1

96.5

Buffalo Bills

96.1

94.4

96.7

 

 

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Baltimore Ravens

102.9

101.4

102.7

Cincinnati Bengals

102.3

102.0

102.2

Pittsburgh Steelers

98.9

97.6

98.5

Cleveland Browns

93.5

94.0

93.5

 

 

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Houston Texans

105.1

105.1

105.4

Indianapolis Colts

100.0

98.3

99.8

Tennessee Titans

99.3

98.4

100.1

Jacksonville Jaguars

90.1

89.3

90.2

 

 

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Denver Broncos

109.0

110.4

109.8

San Diego Chargers

98.1

99.4

98.9

Kansas City Chiefs

97.4

101.9

98.1

Oakland Raiders

91.9

91.5

91.9

This Week’s Spreads

 

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

New England N Y Jets

14.4

11.0

14.7

Atlanta St. Louis

7.7

8.1

7.7

Buffalo Carolina

0.8

-0.2

1.8

Chicago Minnesota

5.4

8.2

7.2

Green Bay Washington

11.0

11.1

11.6

Indianapolis Miami

3.6

0.8

2.2

Kansas City Dallas

-0.8

1.5

-0.2

Baltimore Cleveland

12.4

10.4

12.2

Houston Tennessee

8.8

9.7

8.3

Philadelphia San Diego

1.9

2.0

1.1

Arizona Detroit

-0.9

-1.1

-1.6

Tampa Bay New Orleans

-1.2

-4.2

-1.4

Oakland Jacksonville

4.8

5.2

4.7

N Y Giants Denver

-4.7

-6.2

-6.6

Seattle San Francisco

-0.4

0.3

-0.7

Cincinnati Pittsburgh

5.9

6.9

6.2

 

September 10, 2013

Questions and Answers

Questions and Answers

Every year, we receive a couple dozen questions from the readers, and we do not always have time to reply to each one.  Since June, and especially since August 29, we have received some excellent questions and comments that will be shown today.  For future reference, drop us a line at: pirate_ratings at live dot com.  When we get enough to answer, we will respond with another one of these segments.

 

1. How do you calculate your ratings?  Is this something anybody could do if they had your equations?

 

Answer: This is a tough one to answer.  Our ratings are not 100% mathematical formulae.  A mathematical formula is used for the base, but the data inputted is not cut and dry.  Whereas many other ratings take the scores of games and the strengths of schedules to make a least squares or least error rating where the scores and schedule strengths fit the best pattern, our ratings try to interpret these scores before running this data.

 

For instance, let us take a game between Oregon and Idaho.  The rating may state that Oregon should win by 77 points.  If they lead 42-0 with six minutes left in the second quarter and then coast to a 66-0 win, while playing the scout team the final quarter, should we really state that the Ducks performed 11 points below par and should be penalized in their next rating?  The Ducks could have won 112-0 without emptying the bench.  We look at how the score was made and not just the score.

 

In another instance, let’s say the final score of a game was 28 to 14.  There are so many different ways to interpret this 14 point win.  It could have been 21-14 with seconds remaining in the game and with the trailing team knocking at the door to tie it up and force overtime.  Let’s say the trailing team threw a pass in the end zone, and the ball went through the receivers’ hands and hit his shoulder pad.  The ball went flying through the air.  Had it flown left, another receiver would have easily caught the ball for a touchdown.  However, it flew right, into the hands of the strong safety, who caught it and ran 106 yards for a touchdown to make the score 28-14 instead of 21-21.  The direction of the deflection cannot be counted as 14 points.  No one play is worth that.

 

What if this 28-14 game was 28-0 with six minutes to go, and the scrubs scored a touchdown to cut it to 28-7, and then the leading team’s scrubs fumbled and gave up another touchdown with now four minutes to go.  The leading team then put their starters back in and drove from their 25 to the opposing 5 yard line before running out the clock.  This game could have been 42-0 if not for the reserves.  In a close game, those reserves will have little input in a future game.

 

2. What are the differences in your three ratings—PiRate, Mean, and Bias?

 

Answer: Okay, this one can be different depending on the year in question.  The PiRate Regular ratings stay the same every year.  They have not deviated since the advent of the Internet making statistical research so easy.

 

The Mean and Bias ratings have been tinkered with over the last 10 years.  In fact, the Mean rating has changed since 2011.  We perform 14 different calculations to start each season.  We look at returning lettermen and starters.  Each player at a positiong has a certain value, so that a returning starting left tackle earns the same points for Oregon and Alabama as it does for Georgia State and South Alabama.  This data is looked at many ways.  In one system, we may give more emphasis to the quarterback and wide receivers than in another system.  Our favorite calculation actually gives more weight to the interior lines than any of the skill positions.

 

After we calculate all the ratings, we adjust the previous year’s final rating for each team by the change in personnel entering this year.  For the PiRate regular rating, we take the 5 calculations that have always been used.  For the Mean rating, we take the 14 calculations and take the average rating.  For the Bias rating, we take the original 5 calculations and weight them a little differently.  Two of the calculations count 30% each; a third calculation counts 20%; and the other two count 10% each.  Thus, the PiRate Regular and Bias ratings will begin the season differing very little.

 

Additionally, each of the three ratings have a unique updating formula.  The PiRate Regular rating has the most conservative update and will not vary as much as the other two.  The Bias Rating has a more liberal update, and it will be more like the betting public and emphasize the most recent game over all others.  The Mean rating will usually have a smaller spread believing that the most recent game is part of a larger trend, but oftentimes overemphasized.  Thus, the Mean rating will frequently differ in the predicted winner when compared with the other two.  This is great for our purposes, for when the three ratings agree in a similar point-range, we believe this game is less uncertain than the average game.  In fact, over the last few years, when the three ratings take the same side of a selection, and the difference is two points or more on all three ratings, that selection has been the correct side about 62% of the time.  At 62%, you can get rich slowly if you have the courage to believe it will continue.  Of course, that 62% has a rather high standard deviation.  One year, the accuracy was just 46.4%.  One year, it was 73.1%.  One year, the number of plays this system generated exceeded 240 for the season, while just a couple years ago, there were only 97 plays for the season (which happened to be the 73.1% year at 68-25-4).

 

3. You once said that strength of schedule did not count for much in your system.  How can you be accurate then?

 

Answer: This statement is somewhat true, but let us explain what we mean.  We believe that the strength of a team lies in its talent, its teamwork, its coaching, and its commitment to win.  The schedule does not indicate how good a team may or may not be.  It may be how the rankings and BCS standings are determined, but we do not issue ratings to try to pick how the teams will be ranked or even which teams will play in the National Championship Game.  We want to rate the teams from best to worst and only care to compare which teams are actually better than others and by how many points.

 

Here is why strength of schedule is useless to us.  Let’s say that my friend the high school coach has just been hired at Old Dominion as the Monarchs move to FBS status.  In the first three years there, he successfully recruits the next Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, Anthony Gonzalez, Maurkice Pouncey, Mike Iupati, Andy Levitre, Ryan Clady, and Joe Staley to start on offense.  On defense, he signs Geno Atkins, Vince Wilfork, J.J. Watt, Julius Peppers, Patrick Willis, Clay Matthews, DeMarcus Ware, Darrelle Revis, Charles Tillman, Earl Thomas, and Eric Berry to start on defense.

 

Without a doubt, no team in college football could equal talent like this.  Not only are these guys obvious first team all-Americans, every one is a future first team All-NFL.  Even Alabama could not compete against this team.

 

Now, this ODU team’s schedule is: Georgia State, Charlotte, Appalachian St., Louisiana-Monroe, Massachusetts, Troy, South Alabama, Louisiana-Lafayette, Arkansas St., Georgia Southern, Texas St., and Army.  There is no doubt that they will go 12-0 and outscore this dozen by about 500-700 points.  Yet, the strength of schedule may rank this team around #20.  If this were this season, they would not even compete for an at-large BCS Bowl Bid, and they would have to settle for something like the New Orleans or Military Bowl.

 

This has been the case in the past.  In 1970, Arizona State had the best team in the nation.  They did not get a chance to play in a big bowl and had to settle for the Peach, where they won handily.  Nebraska was two touchdowns weaker in 1970 than they would be in 1971, and the Sun Devils had the better team in 1970, when they ran the table and proved unstoppable on offense.

 

In 1969, Penn State was probably a little better than Texas.  The Longhorns’ new Wishbone offense proved to be an excellent weapon, but by the end of the season, teams had figured out how to slow it down.  Only a miracle comeback even got UT to the Cotton Bowl, and then in the Cotton Bowl, they had trouble with a very good but not great Notre Dame team.  Meanwhile, Penn State had perhaps the best college defense in the last eight years.  This defense and the special teams actually scored or set up the score for more points than they gave up.  Additionally, it was a team that went 11-0 for the second consecutive season and would place a host of players in the NFL.  How strong was that Penn St. team?  Their second and third running options were Franco Harris and Lydell Mitchell, two future NFL stars.  Their quarterback, Chuck Burkhart NEVER lost a game where he was the starting QB—that includes college, high school, and junior high—undefeated for life!

 

The end of the BCS era does not signal the end of this travesty.  Still, big name schools with gaudy schedules will beat out other schools for one of the four playoff berths.  There should be no selection of playoff berths.  There should be set guidelines that allow each team to qualify for a berth by winning on the field just like the NFL.  The last several Super Bowl Champs might never have been in the playoffs to begin with if they had to be selected as one of the top four teams.   Baltimore would have been left out last year.  The Green Bay Packers and New York Giants would not have qualified when they won their most recent Super Bowls.  It is our opinion, that this tournament needs to be eight-deep with each of the eight teams qualifying by winning on the field and clinching a spot based only on games played and never on human selection.

 

5. You used to report for Vanderbilt, and you stated that you married into a University of Wisconsin and Green Bay Packer family.  How do we know that you do not fudge on these teams and rate them higher than they deserve?

 

Answer: You are confusing ranking and rating.  Ranking might bring into play human partiality, but we are trying to rate teams based on how this rating can be used to select against the spread.  We would be quite happy for these three teams to win every week, but what most excites us is picking all the winners against the spread.  So, our love of being accurate is really all that matters.  We have no influence over the rankings, so it really matters not which teams we cheer for.  And, to tell you the truth, some of us root for different teams.  And, we are not fanatical fans.  Our founder has cultivated friendships with athletic officials at numerous schools including those at the University of Tennessee, the University of Minnesota, and personnel with the Chicago Bears and Cleveland Browns.  He never roots against anybody.  His love of the game is what keeps his interest going, and as a long-time coach in football and basketball, his first love is watching teams practice.  As most long-time coaches will agree, they miss the practices when they retire.  They don’t really miss the games, the schmoozing with alumni, the media, etc.

 

6. What happened to your Computer Simulations?

Answer: We regret to say that we lost access to the college campus computer that allowed us to run these simulations.  So, unless this changes, we will not be able to offer this service in the future.

 

7. I want to make my own ratings.  Can you offer help?

Answer: This is one we get a lot.  If you want to make your own ratings, do what we did when we started out in 1969.  Begin with your own personal belief about each team.  Begin with each conference and rank the teams within the conference.  Then, take the best teams in each conference and rank against each other.  It should look something like it looked for our founder in October 1969:

 

Southwest Conference:

Arkansas 0, Texas -1, Texas Tech -27, TCU -29, SMU -30, Texas A&M -30, Rice -34, Baylor -41.

 

He did this for every conference as well as the numerous independents, which he had broken down into four regions since there were so many then.

 

At the time, Ohio St. was number one overall.  They received the top rating at 120, or 20 points better than the average team and about 40 points better than the typical weak team.  He had Arkansas as the third best of the teams, about 3 points weaker than Ohio St.  Thus for the SWC, the teams had these ratings:

 

Arkansas 117, Texas 116, Texas Tech, 90, TCU 88. SMU 87, Texas A&M 87, Rice 83, and Baylor 76.

 

At the time, he gave every team with a large stadium 4 points home field advantage, every team with an average stadium 3 points, and every team with a small stadium 2 points.

 

After each game, he raised or lowered the rating from 1 to 6 points based on the outcome of the game, or left it the same.  Whatever he gave to one team, he took the opposite away from the other.  It was crude, but he was 9 years old.   

8. Have you ever considered using more colors in your blog?

Answer: That was a great suggestion, and we took your advice this summer and began using team colors.

September 5, 2013

PiRate Picks For College and NFL Football: September 5-9, 2013

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:14 am

Time To Rebound

It started great for the PiRate Picks last week.  The first two 13-point teasers won with ease, and the third 13-point teaser was ¾ of the way home to victory until Nebraska laid an egg against Wyoming.  The Cowboys, who think of Nebraska as a inter-conference rival (the big brother border state plus the sharing of legendary coach Bob Devaney), played brilliantly and closed like a stretch runner at Belmont Park, just missing by a field goal.  We still had our ace up our sleeve with the other four picks.  In the fourth 13-point teaser, Georgia and LSU covered, leaving a Sunday and Monday game.

 

So at 2-1, we looked to our keyed money line parlays and the two games in question to complete the fourth teaser.  North Texas, Alabama, and Louisville all won, setting up a possible 6-1 opening week.

 

One little problem—our key pick went south on us.  Colorado St., a team we selected to be vastly improved and even vie for a bowl bid this season laid a dinosaur egg against lowly Colorado.  Our 6-1 week, became a 2-5 week.

 

It is time to rebound.  Week 2 has historically been a very good week for us as we play against the prevailing winds.  People tend to overextend towards the momentum after one week, thus creating live ‘dogs to play.  Throw in the opening week of the NFL season, and ESPN could name this “Underdog Week” playing the theme from the classic cartoon of a half-century ago.

 

We have made 17 selections this week.  Think of it as trying to eliminate market risk.  A 10-7 week would be a winner and would even up our slate.  A 12-5 week would give us a nice profit, erasing the losses from the week before.  Of course, a 5-12 week could have us washing windows and cleaning parking lots next week.

 

Remember, we do this just for fun.  We wager money just like we clean windows on the 44th floor of a skyscraper.  It is just in our minds.

 

Remember too, you get what you paid for, and this is 100% free.  So, act responsibly, and do not rely on us to invest your mortgage payment.  If you want to lose money that easily, we can provide you with some very worthy causes that do not receive publicity and thus stay underfunded.

 

Straight Selections vs. Spread

1. Miami +3 ½ vs. Florida

2. San Diego St. +29 ½ vs. Ohio St.

3. Syracuse +17 ½ vs. Northwestern

4. Atlanta +3 vs. New Orleans

5. Cincinnati +3 vs. Chicago

6. Minnesota +6 vs. Detroit

7. New York Giants +3 ½ vs. Dallas

8. Philadelphia +4 ½ vs. Washington

 

9. 13-point Teaser

Denver +6 vs. Baltimore

New England +4 vs. Buffalo

Tennessee + Pittsburgh OVER 29

Pittsburgh +6 vs. Tennessee

 

10. 13-point Teaser

Atlanta +16 vs. New Orleans

Atlanta + New Orleans OVER 41

Tampa Bay +9 ½ vs. New York Jets

Cincinnati + Chicago OVER 28 ½

 

11. 13-point Teaser

Cleveland +12 vs. Miami

Carolina +16 ½ vs. Seattle

Seattle + Carolina OVER 32

Minnesota + Detroit OVER 33 ½

 

12. 13-point Teaser

Indianapolis + 3 ½ vs. Oakland

St. Louis +8 ½ vs. Arizona

Philadelphia + Washington OVER 39

San Diego + Houston OVER 31 ½

 

13. Money Line Parlay @ -119

Southern Cal over Washington St.

Arizona over U N L V

Kansas St. over UL-Lafayette

 

14. Money Line Parlay @ -110

North Carolina over Middle Tennessee

Tulane over South Alabama

Indiana over Navy

 

15. Money Line Parlay @ -115

Oklahoma over West Virginia

Texas over B Y U

Tulsa over Colorado St.

 

16. Money Line Parlay @ -102

Kentucky over Miami (O)

Missouri over Toledo

Ball St. over Army

Tennessee over Western Kentucky

 

17. Money Line Parlay @ -110

New England over Buffalo

Pittsburgh over Tennessee

Indianapolis over Oakland

August 29, 2013

PiRate Football Picks For August 29 to September 2, 2013

PiRate Picks For August 29 to September 2, 2013

PiRate Business Card Picture 

Welcome back to the most popular weekly publication of the PiRate Ratings.  Last year, anywhere from 585 to 1,734 readers came by to peruse our picks, as we have become known for playing sweetheart teasers and moneyline parlays.

 

Our percentages were down a bit last year, but it was hard to go up after we cleaned up in 2011, winning the prestigious Prediction Tracker title for best record against the spread for our NFL games.  Our ratings are meant to be predictive in nature and not retrodictive, and we use these ratings as a starting point when we make our selections.

 

We did charge for these picks at one time, but in the last few years, we have made these available for free.  Remember, you get what you paid for, so if you have to mortgage your house to cover your losses, it is your fault and not ours.  Truth be told, none of us here ever bet on football games.  Our only wagers in the last ten years have been at horse tracks, where we concentrate on plain, everyday claiming and allowance races—never the big stakes and classics.

 

While we tend to gravitate toward 10 and 13-point sweetheart teasers and moneyline parlays, we also usually have a weekly theme based on certain trends we have noticed.  Obviously, this is the first week of actual games that count in the standings, and we leave preseason NFL games alone.  So, it is difficult to notice any trends.  Well, normally, it is difficult to notice any trends.  However, we have noticed what we believe is a major mistake in the opening games.  It is difficult to find much of a mistake, because smart money usually controls the movement of the lines.  The public usually then moves that line in the wrong direction, and the smarts profit from their ignorance.  Their specialty is playing both sides of a line that has moved by 2 points or more.  With a 10% vigorish, if you play both sides in a moved line, you only need to hit the middle ground one time in 19 to profit.  Here is how it works.

 

Let’s say Oklahoma opens as a 19-point favorite over Kansas.  The smarts believe this line is way too low and takes OU -19 placing truckloads of dough on the Sooners.  The line moves to -21 ½ a couple days later and stays there through Friday night.  Now, the smarts place the same amount of truckloads on Kansas +21 ½.

 

If the spread falls outside the 19 to 21 ½ range, the smarts win one wager and lose one wager.  They lose 10% vig only.  If the spread is exactly 19, then they win one wager and push on the other.  They turn a nice profit.  If the spread is 20 or 21 points (a frequent event), they win both wagers and bleed the books for multiple truckloads.  It is impossible to lose both wagers.  So, the possible results are 2-0, 1-0, and 1-1.  The only possible problem is if the line does not move in the direction they want it to move, and the result is still a 50-50 proposition (either win or lose the single wager).  So, if you want to be a success at this, look at the opening line and look at your favorite games where you believe the line will move.  Play ½ of what you plan to play on that game.  Then, watch that line.  If it moves in the direction you believe and crosses over the number 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13, 14, 17, 20, or 21, then play the other ½ of your amount on the other side

 

We believe we have noticed one line that is off to start the season.  It is not off by enough to play the game straight as a side.  No, where we like this game is in the money line.  Just like keying a horse with multiple horses in an exacta wager, we believe we can key this game with other games in multiple money line parlays.

 

The game in question is Colorado State versus Colorado.  Our ratings show that the Rams are vastly improved this year and should challenge for bowl eligibility under second year coach Jim McElwain.  CU starts over from scratch with new coach Mike MacIntyre.  We believe MacIntyre will turn things around in Boulder, but not in year one.  CSU won this game last year by five, and we believe they are a clear favorite with a 90% chance of winning.  The money line number is CSU -145, CU +125.

 

We only play the money line when we can get the number on the favorite side down to -120 or lower.  Obviously, -145 is too much of a gamble, but if we combine that game with other sure wins up to -1175 will allow us to play a 2-game parlay at -120 or lower.

 

We have chosen six different parlays this week where you can get -120 or better odds using Colorado State as one of the two money line winners.  If you play all six, you are taking a large risk.  We are showing the six that we like. Only choose what you can afford to risk.

 

Our other favorite play, the 13-point sweetheart teaser requires a 4-team parlay where you get to move the line by 13 points in your favor.  In NFL games, we like playing totals this way, but we do not like this philosophy for college games.  What we like for the opening week is the favorite getting an extra 13 points to bring the spread down to a better number and a game underdog getting double digit points in a game where they are no worse than a 7-10 point ‘dog in our eyes.  Any time we can get a 13 ½ point favorite to a ½ point favorite; a 15 ½ point favorite to 2 ½ point favorite; a 5 ½ point favorite to a 7 ½ point underdog; and other games where moving the spread crosses a frequent outcome spread, we give that game extra notice.  If we can take a minor underdog and move it to better than +14, +17, or +21, we give that a lot of notice.  And, when we can take a short favorite and turn them into a double-digit ‘dog, we definitely look at that game, because upsets are rarely by double digits.

 

At the end of this article, we will reveal our official picks (7) for this week.  First, let’s show you the four Colorado State parlays that are not our official picks, but are nevertheless good values in our opinion.  We cannot take the risk of playing six of these, so these are the three that did not make the final cut.

 

1. Colorado State over Colorado and Minnesota over UNLV at +103

2. Colorado State over Colorado and North Carolina St. over Louisiana Tech at +101

3. Colorado State over Colorado and Florida State over Pittsburgh at +111

 

Any of these three games can be wagered and if won will return more money than wagered.  For instance, if you bet $100 on parlay number 1 above, you will win $103 if the parlay wins but lose $100 if it loses.

 

We also take note of the games in which all three of our PiRate Ratings (Regular, Mean, and Bias) are on the same side of the line by 2 or more points difference from that line.

 

14 of this week’s college games meet that criterion

1. Ole Miss -3 vs. Vanderbilt

2. Rutgers +10 vs. Fresno St.

3. Southern Cal -22 ½ vs. Hawaii

4. Michigan State -28 vs. Western Michigan

5. Miami (Fl) -32 ½ vs. Florida Atlantic

6. Buffalo +35 ½ vs. Ohio St.

7. Maryland -20 vs. Florida International

8. Notre Dame -30 vs. Temple

9. BYU +1 vs. Virginia

10. Kentucky -5 vs. Western Kentucky

11. Washington St. +15 ½ vs. Auburn

12. Nebraska -29 vs. Wyoming

13. Washington -4 vs. Boise State

14. Northwestern -6 vs. California

 

If we further a criteria to where the above situation is met plus the total spread of the game is 14 or less points (10 or less if it were NFL), we come up with these six games that meet the criteria

 

1. Ole Miss -3 vs. Vanderbilt

2. Rutgers +10 vs. Fresno St.

3. BYU +1 vs. Virginia

4. Kentucky -5 vs. Western Kentucky

5. Washington -4 vs. Boise St.

6. Northwestern -6 vs. California

 

Okay, now for our official selections this week.  We are going with three money line parlays using Colorado State with another game, and we are going with four 13-point teasers.

 

1. Money Line Parlay at -116

Colorado State over Colorado

Louisville over Ohio U

 

2. Money Line Parlay at -105

Colorado State over Colorado

North Texas over Idaho

 

3. Money Line Parlay at -119

Colorado State over Colorado

Alabama over Virginia Tech

 

4. 13-point Teaser

Minnesota – ½ vs. UNLV

Central Florida -9 vs. Akron

Utah St. +15 ½ vs. Utah

Ole Miss +10 vs. Vanderbilt

 

5. 13-point Teaser

SMU +18 ½ vs. Texas Tech

Maryland -9 vs. Florida Int’l

Notre Dame -16 ½ vs. Temple

Alabama -7 vs. Virginia Tech

 

6. 13-point Teaser

Western Kentucky +18 vs. Kentucky

Marshall -6 ½ vs. Miami (O)

Oklahoma St. + ½ vs. Mississippi St.

Nebraska -16 ½ vs. Wyoming

 

7. 13-point Teaser

Georgia +11 ½ vs. Clemson

LSU +9 vs. TCU

Colorado St. +10 ½ vs. Colorado

Florida St. +2 vs. Pittsburgh

August 27, 2013

College Ratings and Spreads For Week 1: August 29-September 2, 2013

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:55 am

PiRate Ratings—College Football—Week 1—August 29-September 2, 2013

Ratings of all 125 FBS Teams

 

PiRate Regular

1

Alabama

132.9

2

Oregon

127.9

3

Texas

127.3

4

Stanford

127.1

5

Oklahoma St.

122.0

6

Texas A&M

122.0

7

Ole Miss

122.0

8

Notre Dame

121.6

9

Georgia 

121.4

10

Oregon St.

121.3

11

L S U

120.2

12

South Carolina

119.8

13

Ohio St.

118.8

14

Florida 

117.8

15

T C U

117.5

16

Washington

117.5

17

Southern Cal

116.9

18

Clemson

116.5

19

Nebraska

116.4

20

Michigan St.

116.4

21

Arizona

116.2

22

Oklahoma

115.8

23

Michigan

115.7

24

Arizona St.

115.5

25

Louisville

115.3

26

U C L A

115.2

27

Wisconsin

114.9

28

Miami

114.7

29

Northwestern

114.5

30

Missouri

114.1

31

Florida St.

112.9

32

Baylor

112.5

33

Kansas St.

111.9

34

Penn St.

111.4

35

Virginia Tech

110.9

36

Georgia Tech

110.5

37

Vanderbilt

109.8

38

Mississippi St.

109.2

39

B Y U

108.2

40

Tennessee

107.6

41

North Carolina

107.3

42

Cincinnati

105.5

43

Auburn

105.5

44

Fresno St.

104.0

45

Texas Tech

103.9

46

Indiana

102.9

47

West Virginia

102.1

48

Minnesota

102.1

49

Iowa

101.7

50

Arkansas

101.7

51

Syracuse

101.5

52

Pittsburgh

101.1

53

Utah St.

100.9

54

Boston College

100.4

55

Washington St.

100.3

56

San Jose St.

100.3

57

Kentucky

100.0

58

Boise St.

100.0

59

Iowa St.

99.7

60

Utah

99.7

61

Rutgers

99.3

62

Purdue

98.8

63

Bowling Green

98.7

64

East Carolina

98.6

65

Toledo

98.6

66

San Diego St.

98.6

67

Wake Forest

98.3

68

Central Florida

98.2

69

Tulsa

98.1

70

Northern Illinois

97.8

71

California

97.8

72

Duke

97.5

73

Ball St.

97.1

74

Rice

97.0

75

North Carolina St.

97.0

76

UL-Monroe

96.8

77

Virginia

95.9

78

Maryland

94.7

79

South Florida

94.5

80

S M U

94.1

81

Illinois

94.0

82

Kansas

93.9

83

Arkansas St.

93.6

84

Connecticut

93.6

85

Buffalo

92.8

86

Marshall

92.8

87

UL-Lafayette

92.4

88

Ohio U

91.9

89

Navy

91.7

90

North Texas

90.8

91

Colorado St.

90.3

92

Colorado

89.8

93

Western Kentucky

89.5

94

Kent St.

89.5

95

Houston

89.4

96

Memphis

88.7

97

Nevada

88.5

98

Temple

87.6

99

U A B

87.6

100

Louisiana Tech

87.0

101

Middle Tennessee

86.4

102

U T S A

86.4

103

Wyoming

85.8

104

U N L V

85.7

105

Army

85.7

106

Troy

85.5

107

Western Michigan

85.2

108

U T E P

85.1

109

Central Michigan

84.4

110

Tulane

84.2

111

Miami (O)

83.5

112

Southern Miss

83.0

113

Florida Atlantic

82.0

114

Hawaii

82.0

115

Air Force

81.3

116

Akron

80.8

117

Texas St.

80.6

118

South Alabama

79.9

119

Eastern Michigan

79.5

120

New Mexico

78.8

121

New Mexico St.

75.4

122

Florida Int’l

74.7

123

Idaho

71.3

124

Massachusetts

70.6

125

Georgia St.

60.7

 

PiRate Mean

1

Alabama

123.9

2

Oregon

119.7

3

Georgia 

117.4

4

L S U

117.3

5

Ole Miss

117.2

6

South Carolina

116.7

7

Ohio St.

116.5

8

Texas

116.2

9

Stanford

115.9

10

Michigan St.

115.8

11

Notre Dame

115.0

12

Texas A&M

114.7

13

T C U

114.6

14

Penn St.

114.3

15

Miami

114.1

16

Nebraska

113.8

17

Louisville

113.4

18

Florida 

113.3

19

Arizona St.

113.1

20

Florida St.

112.8

21

Wisconsin

112.8

22

Washington

112.6

23

Clemson

112.2

24

Michigan

112.2

25

Northwestern

111.6

26

Oklahoma

111.6

27

Southern Cal

111.4

28

Oklahoma St.

111.2

29

Virginia Tech

110.8

30

Missouri

109.7

31

Mississippi St.

109.6

32

North Carolina

109.3

33

Arizona

108.8

34

Georgia Tech

108.7

35

Oregon St.

108.6

36

B Y U

107.8

37

Tennessee

107.5

38

Arkansas

107.3

39

Vanderbilt

106.8

40

Cincinnati

105.9

41

Maryland

105.1

42

Kansas St.

104.5

43

Rutgers

104.2

44

Indiana

104.2

45

Auburn

103.5

46

Baylor

103.2

47

U C L A

103.0

48

Minnesota

102.5

49

Boise St.

102.3

50

North Carolina St.

102.0

51

S M U

101.9

52

East Carolina

101.7

53

Wake Forest

101.6

54

Rice

101.6

55

Iowa

101.5

56

Fresno St.

101.4

57

Connecticut

101.3

58

Houston

101.0

59

Kentucky

100.9

60

Tulsa

100.8

61

Bowling Green

100.3

62

Marshall

99.8

63

Ball St.

99.3

64

Memphis

98.4

65

Toledo

98.3

66

San Diego St.

98.3

67

Ohio U

97.8

68

Illinois

97.7

69

Pittsburgh

97.6

70

Virginia

97.6

71

Central Florida

97.5

72

West Virginia

97.4

73

Duke

97.1

74

Northern Illinois

97.0

75

Utah

96.7

76

Boston College

96.6

77

Syracuse

96.6

78

Texas Tech

96.4

79

Purdue

96.2

80

Nevada

96.2

81

Washington St.

96.1

82

Buffalo

95.2

83

San Jose St.

94.9

84

Navy

94.5

85

U A B

94.4

86

Colorado St.

94.4

87

Tulane

93.8

88

Kent St.

93.8

89

Western Kentucky

93.5

90

UL-Monroe

93.0

91

South Florida

92.9

92

Iowa St.

92.8

93

Utah St.

92.5

94

U T E P

92.1

95

U N L V

92.0

96

California

91.9

97

Army

91.8

98

UL-Lafayette

91.6

99

Kansas

91.5

100

Southern Miss

90.4

101

Louisiana Tech

90.1

102

Central Michigan

89.9

103

North Texas

89.5

104

Akron

89.3

105

Middle Tennessee

88.1

106

Texas St.

87.8

107

Air Force

87.7

108

Arkansas St.

87.6

109

Troy

87.0

110

Western Michigan

86.7

111

New Mexico St.

86.4

112

U T S A

86.1

113

Colorado

85.9

114

Wyoming

85.6

115

Temple

85.1

116

Miami (O)

85.1

117

New Mexico

83.9

118

Eastern Michigan

83.6

119

South Alabama

82.7

120

Hawaii

82.4

121

Florida Atlantic

81.6

122

Massachusetts

81.1

123

Idaho

80.6

124

Florida Int’l

79.4

125

Georgia St.

71.5

 

PiRate Bias

1

Alabama

133.7

2

Oregon

128.8

3

Texas

127.8

4

Stanford

126.8

5

Oklahoma St.

122.7

6

Ole Miss

122.0

7

Texas A&M

121.9

8

Georgia 

121.7

9

L S U

120.6

10

Notre Dame

120.5

11

Oregon St.

120.0

12

South Carolina

119.5

13

Ohio St.

119.1

14

T C U

118.4

15

Washington

118.0

16

Clemson

117.5

17

Southern Cal

116.8

18

Louisville

116.5

19

Florida 

116.0

20

Arizona St.

115.9

21

Nebraska

115.6

22

Michigan St.

115.4

23

Michigan

115.2

24

Oklahoma

115.2

25

Miami

115.2

26

Arizona

115.1

27

Northwestern

114.5

28

Wisconsin

114.5

29

U C L A

114.1

30

Florida St.

113.3

31

Missouri

112.9

32

Baylor

112.4

33

Virginia Tech

110.9

34

Kansas St.

110.8

35

Penn St.

110.8

36

Georgia Tech

110.8

37

Mississippi St.

109.3

38

Vanderbilt

109.2

39

B Y U

108.9

40

North Carolina

108.6

41

Tennessee

107.2

42

Cincinnati

105.9

43

Fresno St.

105.0

44

Auburn

103.9

45

Texas Tech

102.7

46

Indiana

102.1

47

Boise St.

101.7

48

Boston College

101.1

49

Pittsburgh

101.1

50

Utah St.

101.1

51

West Virginia

101.1

52

Minnesota

101.0

53

Iowa

100.8

54

Syracuse

100.8

55

San Jose St.

100.7

56

East Carolina

100.1

57

Rutgers

100.1

58

Washington St.

99.9

59

Arkansas

99.8

60

Bowling Green

99.8

61

Northern Illinois

99.6

62

Tulsa

99.4

63

Central Florida

99.2

64

Toledo

99.2

65

San Diego St.

98.8

66

Utah

98.5

67

Rice

98.5

68

Wake Forest

98.4

69

Ball St.

98.3

70

Iowa St.

98.3

71

Kentucky

98.1

72

UL-Monroe

98.0

73

North Carolina St.

97.5

74

Purdue

97.2

75

Duke

96.5

76

Maryland

96.5

77

Virginia

96.1

78

California

95.5

79

S M U

94.6

80

Marshall

94.3

81

Connecticut

94.2

82

Illinois

93.8

83

South Florida

93.5

84

Arkansas St.

93.5

85

Ohio U

93.4

86

Buffalo

93.2

87

Kansas

92.8

88

UL-Lafayette

92.2

89

Navy

91.4

90

Houston

90.9

91

Colorado St.

90.8

92

North Texas

90.6

93

Western Kentucky

90.3

94

Kent St.

90.1

95

Memphis

89.7

96

Nevada

89.5

97

U A B

87.9

98

Colorado

87.6

99

Troy

87.1

100

Louisiana Tech

86.9

101

Western Michigan

86.5

102

Army

86.4

103

U N L V

86.3

104

Middle Tennessee

86.0

105

Wyoming

85.9

106

Temple

85.6

107

U T E P

85.6

108

U T S A

85.1

109

Central Michigan

84.6

110

Tulane

84.0

111

Southern Miss

83.6

112

Miami (O)

82.9

113

Hawaii

82.4

114

Air Force

81.2

115

Florida Atlantic

80.8

116

South Alabama

80.5

117

Akron

80.2

118

Texas St.

79.9

119

New Mexico

79.4

120

Eastern Michigan

79.2

121

New Mexico St.

75.3

122

Florida Int’l

74.5

123

Massachusetts

70.2

124

Idaho

69.9

125

Georgia St.

62.1

 

Ratings by Conference

Teddy Bridgewater  Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville  Source: AP Photo/Garry Jones

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

0-0

0-0

115.3

113.4

116.5

Cincinnati

0-0

0-0

105.5

105.9

105.9

Rutgers

0-0

0-0

99.3

104.2

100.1

Central Florida

0-0

0-0

98.2

97.5

99.2

South Florida

0-0

0-0

94.5

92.9

93.5

S M U

0-0

0-0

94.1

101.9

94.6

Connecticut

0-0

0-0

93.6

101.3

94.2

Houston

0-0

0-0

89.4

101.0

90.9

Memphis

0-0

0-0

88.7

98.4

89.7

Temple

0-0

0-0

87.6

85.1

85.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

96.6

100.2

97.0

Boyd   Tajh Boyd, Clemson  Source: Joshua S. Kelly/US PRESSWIRE

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Clemson

0-0

0-0

116.5

112.2

117.5

Florida St.

0-0

0-0

112.9

112.8

113.3

Syracuse

0-0

0-0

101.5

96.6

100.8

Boston College

0-0

0-0

100.4

96.6

101.1

Wake Forest

0-0

0-0

98.3

101.6

98.4

North Carolina St.

0-0

0-0

97.0

102.0

97.5

Maryland

0-0

0-0

94.7

105.1

96.5

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami

0-0

0-0

114.7

114.1

115.2

Virginia Tech

0-0

0-0

110.9

110.8

110.9

Georgia Tech

0-0

0-0

110.5

108.7

110.8

North Carolina

0-0

0-0

107.3

109.3

108.6

Pittsburgh

0-0

0-0

101.1

97.6

101.1

Duke

0-0

0-0

97.5

97.1

96.5

Virginia

0-0

0-0

95.9

97.6

96.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

104.2

104.4

104.6

Ash David Ash, Texas   Source: AP

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Texas

0-0

0-0

127.3

116.2

127.8

Oklahoma St.

0-0

0-0

122.0

111.2

122.7

T C U

0-0

0-0

118.0

115.1

118.9

Oklahoma

0-0

0-0

115.8

111.6

115.2

Baylor

0-0

0-0

112.5

103.2

112.4

Kansas St.

0-0

0-0

111.9

104.5

110.8

Texas Tech

0-0

0-0

104.1

96.6

102.9

West Virginia

0-0

0-0

102.1

97.4

101.1

Iowa St.

0-0

0-0

99.7

92.8

98.3

Kansas

0-0

0-0

93.9

91.5

92.8

League Averages

110.7

104.0

110.3

braxton-miller Braxton Miller, Ohio St.  Source: The Toledo Blade

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

0-0

0-0

118.8

116.5

119.1

Wisconsin

0-0

0-0

114.9

112.8

114.5

Penn St.

0-0

0-0

111.4

114.3

110.8

Indiana

0-0

0-0

102.9

104.2

102.1

Purdue

0-0

0-0

98.8

96.2

97.2

Illinois

0-0

0-0

94.0

97.7

93.8

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

0-0

0-0

116.4

115.8

115.4

Nebraska

0-0

0-0

116.4

113.8

115.6

Michigan

0-0

0-0

115.7

112.2

115.2

Northwestern

0-0

0-0

114.5

111.6

114.5

Minnesota

0-0

0-0

102.1

102.5

101.0

Iowa

0-0

0-0

101.7

101.5

100.8

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

109.0

108.3

108.3

treywatts  Trey Watts, Tulsa  Source: Getty Images

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

East Carolina

0-0

0-0

98.6

101.7

100.1

Marshall

0-0

0-0

92.8

99.8

94.3

U A B

0-0

0-0

87.6

94.4

87.9

Middle Tennessee

0-0

0-0

86.4

88.1

86.0

Southern Miss.

0-0

0-0

83.0

90.4

83.6

Florida Atlantic

0-0

0-0

82.0

81.6

80.8

Florida Int’l

0-0

0-0

74.7

79.4

74.5

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Tulsa

0-0

0-0

98.1

100.8

99.4

Rice

0-0

0-0

97.0

101.6

98.5

North Texas

0-0

0-0

90.8

89.5

90.6

Louisiana Tech

0-0

0-0

87.0

90.1

86.9

U T S A

0-0

0-0

86.4

86.1

85.1

U T E P

0-0

0-0

85.1

92.1

85.6

Tulane

0-0

0-0

84.2

93.8

84.0

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

88.1

92.1

88.4

Tino Sunseri, Prince Shembo Prince Shembo Makes Sack, Notre Dame  Source: AP Photo/Michael Conroy

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Notre Dame

 

0-0

121.6

115.0

120.5

B Y U

 

0-0

108.2

107.8

108.9

Navy

 

0-0

91.7

94.5

91.4

Army

 

0-0

85.7

91.8

86.4

New Mexico St.

 

0-0

75.4

86.4

75.3

Idaho

 

0-0

71.3

80.6

69.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

92.3

96.0

92.1

Jordan Lynch Jordan Lynch, Northern Illinois  Source: AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

0-0

0-0

98.7

100.3

99.8

Buffalo

0-0

0-0

92.8

95.2

93.2

Ohio

0-0

0-0

91.9

97.8

93.4

Kent St.

0-0

0-0

89.5

93.8

90.1

Miami (O)

0-0

0-0

83.5

85.1

82.9

Akron

0-0

0-0

80.8

89.3

80.2

Massachusetts

0-0

0-0

70.6

81.1

70.2

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Toledo

0-0

0-0

98.6

98.3

99.2

Northern Illinois

0-0

0-0

97.8

97.0

99.6

Ball St.

0-0

0-0

97.1

99.3

98.3

Western Michigan

0-0

0-0

85.2

86.7

86.5

Central Michigan

0-0

0-0

84.4

89.9

84.6

Eastern Michigan

0-0

0-0

79.5

83.6

79.2

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

88.5

92.1

89.0

derek-carr Derek Carr, Fresno St.  Source: USATSI

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Utah St.

0-0

0-0

100.9

92.5

101.1

Boise St.

0-0

0-0

100.0

102.3

101.7

Colorado St.

0-0

0-0

90.3

94.4

90.8

Wyoming

0-0

0-0

85.8

85.6

85.9

Air Force

0-0

0-0

81.3

87.7

81.2

New Mexico

0-0

0-0

78.8

83.9

79.4

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

0-0

0-0

104.0

101.4

105.0

San Jose St.

0-0

0-0

100.3

94.9

100.7

San Diego St.

0-0

0-0

98.6

98.3

98.8

Nevada

0-0

0-0

88.5

96.2

89.5

U N L V

0-0

0-0

85.7

92.0

86.3

Hawaii

0-0

0-0

82.0

82.4

82.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

91.4

92.6

91.9

Marcus Mariota, Sir Thomas Jackson Marcus Ariota, Oregon  Source: AP Photo/Don Ryan

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon

0-0

0-0

127.9

119.7

128.8

Stanford

0-0

0-0

127.1

115.9

126.8

Oregon St.

0-0

0-0

121.3

108.6

120.0

Washington

0-0

0-0

117.5

112.6

118.0

Washington St.

0-0

0-0

100.3

96.1

99.9

California

0-0

0-0

97.8

91.9

95.5

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

U S C

0-0

0-0

116.9

111.4

116.8

Arizona

0-0

0-0

116.2

108.8

115.1

Arizona St.

0-0

0-0

115.5

113.1

115.9

U C L A

0-0

0-0

115.2

103.0

114.1

Utah

0-0

0-0

99.7

96.7

98.5

Colorado

0-0

0-0

89.8

85.9

87.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

112.1

105.3

111.4

T J Yeldon T.J. Yeldon, Alabama  Source: Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images North America

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia

0-0

0-0

121.4

117.4

121.7

South Carolina

0-0

0-0

119.8

116.7

119.5

Florida

0-0

0-0

117.8

113.3

116.0

Missouri

0-0

0-0

114.1

109.7

112.9

Vanderbilt

0-0

0-0

109.8

106.8

109.2

Tennessee

0-0

0-0

107.6

107.5

107.2

Kentucky

0-0

0-0

100.0

100.9

98.1

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

0-0

0-0

132.9

123.9

133.7

Ole Miss

0-0

0-0

122.0

117.2

122.0

Texas A&M

0-0

0-0

122.0

114.7

121.9

L S U

0-0

0-0

120.2

117.3

120.6

Mississippi St.

0-0

0-0

109.2

109.6

109.3

Auburn

0-0

0-0

105.5

103.5

103.9

Arkansas

0-0

0-0

101.7

107.3

99.8

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.6

111.8

114.0

Antonio Andrews, Steven Rich, Jared Sexton  Antonio Andrews, Western Kentucky  Source: AP Photo/The Daily News, Joe Imel

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana–Monroe

0-0

0-0

96.8

93.0

98.0

Arkansas St.

0-0

0-0

93.6

87.6

93.5

Louisiana–Lafayette

0-0

0-0

92.4

91.6

92.2

Western Kentucky

0-0

0-0

89.5

93.5

90.3

Troy

0-0

0-0

85.5

87.0

87.1

Texas St.

0-0

0-0

80.6

87.8

79.9

South Alabama

0-0

0-0

79.9

82.7

80.5

Georgia St.

0-0

0-0

60.7

71.5

62.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

84.9

86.8

85.5

 

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Southern

 

0-0

85.0

86.1

92.1

Old Dominion

 

0-0

81.5

82.6

88.6

Appalachian St.

 

0-0

81.4

82.5

88.5

Charlotte

 

0-0

55.0

56.1

62.1

Not figured in regular averages to 100

 

Week 1 Spreads

All Lines From Caesar’s Sportsbook in Las Vegas

 

Date:

August 29-September 2, 2013

 

   

 

 

 

 

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Line

South Carolina North Carolina

15.0

9.9

13.4

-11.5

Minnesota U N L V

19.4

13.5

17.7

-14.0

Bowling Green Tulsa

3.6

2.5

3.4

-3.5

Central Florida Akron

20.4

11.2

22.0

-21.5

Utah Utah St.

0.8

6.2

-0.6

-2.5

Vanderbilt Ole Miss

-9.7

-7.9

-10.3

+3.0

Fresno St. Rutgers

8.2

0.7

8.4

-10.0

Hawaii Southern Cal

-31.9

-26.0

-31.4

+22.5

Michigan St. Western Michigan

34.2

32.1

31.9

-28.0

Miami (Fl) Florida Atlantic

35.2

35.0

36.9

-32.5

S M U Texas Tech

-7.0

8.3

-5.3

+6.0

Wisconsin Massachusetts

47.8

35.2

47.8

-44.5

Michigan Central Michigan

34.3

25.3

33.6

-32.0

Ohio St. Buffalo

29.5

24.8

29.4

-35.5

North Carolina St. Louisiana Tech

13.0

14.9

13.6

-13.5

Maryland Florida Int’l

23.0

28.7

25.0

-20.0

Iowa Northern Illinois

6.9

7.5

4.2

-3.0

Notre Dame Temple

38.0

33.9

38.9

-30.0

Virginia B Y U

-8.8

-6.7

-9.3

-1.0

Virginia Tech (a) Alabama

-22.0

-13.1

-22.8

+19.5

Troy U A B

-0.1

-5.4

1.2

-4.0

Cincinnati Purdue

9.7

12.7

11.7

-10.5

Western Kentucky (b) Kentucky

-10.5

-7.4

-7.8

+5.0

Marshall Miami (O)

12.3

17.7

14.4

-19.0

Oklahoma St. (c) Mississippi St.

12.8

1.6

13.4

-12.5

Oklahoma UL-Monroe

23.5

23.1

21.7

-23.5

Southern Miss Texas St.

5.4

5.6

6.7

-7.5

Texas New Mexico St.

56.4

34.3

57.0

-42.0

Texas A&M Rice

27.5

15.6

25.9

NL

Florida Toledo

23.2

19.0

20.8

-24.0

Arkansas UL-Lafayette

12.3

18.7

10.6

-11.0

Auburn Washington St.

9.2

11.4

8.0

-15.5

North Texas Idaho

22.5

11.9

23.7

-15.0

Syracuse (d) Penn St.

-9.9

-17.7

-10.0

-7.5

Nebraska Wyoming

34.1

31.7

33.2

-29.0

New Mexico U T S A

-5.1

0.3

-3.2

-3.0

Clemson Georgia

-1.9

-2.2

-1.2

+1.5

T C U (e) L S U

-2.2

5.5

9.6

+4.0

Washington Boise St.

20.5

13.3

19.3

-4.0

U C L A Nevada

29.7

9.8

27.6

-20.5

California Northwestern

-13.2

-16.2

-15.5

+6.0

Louisville Ohio

26.4

18.6

26.1

-20.5

Colorado St. (f) Colorado

0.5

8.5

3.2

-2.5

Pittsburgh Florida St.

-8.8

-12.2

-9.2

+10.0

   

 

 

 

 

(a) Game played in Atlanta

 

 

 

 

(b) Game played in Nashville

 

 

 

 

(c) Game played in Houston

 

 

 

 

(d) Game played in East Rutherford, NJ

 

 

 

 

(e) Game played in Arlington, TX

 

 

 

 

(f) Game played in Denver

 

 

 

 

 

Bowl Projections

Teams in (Parentheses) are at-large invitees

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

Utah St.

vs.

U C L A

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

San Jose St.

vs.

Arizona

Famous Idaho Potato

Colorado St.

vs.

Northern Illinois

New Orleans

UL-Monroe

vs.

U A B

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

(Western Kentucky)

vs.

East Carolina

Hawai’i

North Texas

vs.

Louisiana Tech

Little Caesars Pizza

Ball St.

vs.

(Arkansas St.)

Poinsettia

San Diego St.

vs.

(Wake Forest)

Military Bowl

Maryland

vs.

Marshall

Texas

Michigan St.

vs.

(Vanderbilt)

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Washington

vs.

B Y U

Pinstripe

Rutgers

vs.

(Ohio U)

Belk

Central Florida

vs.

North Carolina

Russell Athletic

Cincinnati

vs.

Clemson

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Kansas St.

vs.

Michigan

Armed Forces

Boise St.

vs.

(Toledo)

Music City

Georgia Tech

vs.

Florida

Alamo

Oklahoma

vs.

Oregon St.

Holiday

Baylor

vs.

U S C

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

Mississippi St.

vs.

North Carolina St.

Sun

Virginia Tech

vs.

Arizona St.

Liberty

Missouri

vs.

Tulsa

Chick-fil-A

Florida St.

vs.

Texas A&M

Heart Of Dallas

Rice

vs.

Indiana

Gator

Northwestern

vs.

Ole Miss

Outback

Georgia

vs.

Nebraska

Capital One

Wisconsin

vs.

South Carolina

Rose

Ohio St.

vs.

Oregon

Fiesta

Notre Dame

vs.

Fresno St.

Sugar

Alabama

vs.

Oklahoma St.

Cotton

L S U

vs.

T C U

Orange

Miami (Fl)

vs.

Louisville

BBVA Compass Bowl

S M U

vs.

Tennessee

GoDaddy.com

UL-Lafayette

vs.

Bowling Green

BCS Championship

Texas

vs.

Stanford

 

April 8, 2013

Bracketnomics 2013: National Championship Game–April 8, 2013

2013 NCAA Tournament— Championship Game, April 8, 2013

Time Eastern Daylight

 

Site: Georgia Dome in Atlanta

Network: CBS

Time

Favorite

Underdog

Line

9:23 PM

Louisville (34-5)

Michigan (31-7)

 4

Elite 8 Record: 1-1

Tournament Total: 39-23

Teams Remaining In Bracket: 1 of  2  (Louisville)

 

PiRate Ratings Criteria Formula Statistics

Criteria

Louisville

Michigan

Scoring Margin

16.0

12.4

FG% Margin

6.4

6.0

Rebound Margin

3.6

3.1

Turnover Margin

5.9

2.8

Steals

10.8

6.2

R+T

12.84

7.58

SOS

59.41

55.94

RD W%

82.6

70.0

Qualifiers

6

4

PiRate #

84.22

56.53

Modified

123.92

65.03

 

PiRate Criteria Means for 2000-2012 National Champions

 

Criteria

Champ Avg.

Scoring Margin

15.5

FG% Margin

8.7

Rebound Margin

6.2

Turnover Margin

1.3

Steals

7.8

R+T

9.29

SOS

57.09

RD W%

73.8

Qualifiers

7

PiRate #

75.88

Modified

94.78

 

 

Louisville Cardinals

Roster

#

NAME

HT

WT

POS

CL

HOMETOWN (PREVIOUS SCHOOL)

2

Russ Smith

6-00

165

G

JR

Brooklyn, N.Y. (Archbishop Molloy/South Kent)

3

Peyton Siva

6-00

185

G

SR

Seattle, Wash. (Franklin)

5

Kevin Ware

6-02

175

G

SO

Bronx, N.Y. (Rockdale County (Ga.))

10

Gorgui Dieng

6-11

245

C

JR

Kebemer, Senegal (Covenant/Huntington Prep)

11

Luke Hancock

6-06

200

F

JR

Roanoke, Va. (George Mason)

12

Mangok Mathiang

6-10

200

C

FR

Melbourne, Australia (IMG Academy (Fla.))

14

Logan Baumann

6-00

165

G

FR

Hartford, Ky. (Ohio County)

15

Tim Henderson

6-02

195

G

JR

Louisville, Ky. (Christian Academy)

20

Wayne Blackshear

6-05

230

G/F

SO

Chicago, Ill. (Morgan Park)

21

Chane Behanan

6-06

250

F

SO

Cincinnati, Ohio (Bowling Green)

22

Jordan Bond

6-00

165

G

FR

Louisville, Ky. (duPont Manual)

24

Montrezl Harrell

6-08

235

F

FR

Tarboro, N.C. (Hargrave Military Academy)

25

Zach Price

6-10

250

C

SO

Cleveland, Ohio (Jeffersontown)

32

Michael Baffour

6-02

170

G

JR

Lexington, Ky. (Bryan Station)

33

Mike Marra

6-05

215

G

SR

Smithfield, R.I. (Northfield Mt. Hermon School)

44

Stephan Van Treese

6-09

245

F

SR

Indianapolis, Ind. (Lawrence North)

 

Coach: Rick Pitino 12th year at UL: 309-111

28 seasons overall: 663-239

(Hawaii, Boston U, Providence, Kentucky, Louisville)

 

Team Stats—Louisville

Player

G

GS

Min

FG

FGA

FG%

3pt

3ptA

3pt%

FT

FTA

Russ Smith

39

39

1179

229

544

.421

61

183

.333

220

273

Gorgi Dieng

32

31

989

121

228

.531

0

0

.000

73

112

Peyton Siva

39

39

1211

133

329

.404

38

130

.292

79

92

Chane Behanan

38

36

990

146

288

.507

1

12

.083

73

135

Luke Hancock

39

8

867

92

220

.418

58

153

.379

60

78

Wayne Blackshear

38

33

763

102

243

.420

43

136

.316

43

62

Montrezl Harrell

39

3

637

96

167

.575

0

0

.000

32

63

Kevin Ware

37

1

616

59

132

.447

15

37

.405

34

51

Stephan Van Treese

36

1

412

26

40

.650

0

0

.000

12

17

Zach Price

16

7

123

8

15

.533

0

0

.000

4

8

Tim Henderson

26

0

98

8

23

.348

6

20

.300

0

0

Logan Baumann

4

0

11

0

4

.000

0

0

.000

2

2

Michael Baffour

6

0

12

0

3

.000

0

2

.000

2

4

Jordan Bond

5

0

17

0

3

.000

0

2

.000

0

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
Totals

39

39

7925

1020

2239

.456

222

675

.329

634

897

Opponents

39

39

7925

800

2041

.392

213

678

.314

462

705

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
Player

FT%

F

DQ

Ast

TO

Bk

Stl

Reb

Avg

Pts

Avg

Russ Smith

.806

98

0

114

105

2

83

131

3.4

739

18.9

Gorgi Dieng

.652

81

3

60

57

80

43

302

9.4

315

9.8

Peyton Siva

.859

100

3

223

104

6

86

88

2.3

383

9.8

Chane Behanan

.541

66

0

41

60

16

53

242

6.4

366

9.6

Luke Hancock

.769

80

1

52

39

3

38

104

2.7

302

7.7

Wayne Blackshear

.694

95

0

24

24

10

33

121

3.2

290

7.6

Montrezl Harrell

.508

50

0

8

23

27

20

145

3.7

224

5.7

Kevin Ware

.667

58

1

31

42

4

39

66

1.8

167

4.5

Stephan Van Treese

.706

45

0

9

13

11

18

114

3.2

64

1.8

Zach Price

.500

23

0

0

5

5

1

22

1.4

20

1.3

Tim Henderson

.000

7

0

3

6

1

6

12

0.5

22

0.8

Logan Baumann

1.000

1

0

0

1

0

0

3

0.8

2

0.5

Michael Baffour

.500

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0.2

2

0.3

Jordan Bond

.000

1

0

1

0

0

1

3

0.6

0

0.0

Team

 

 

 

 

7

 

 

85

2.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Totals

.707

705

8

566

486

165

421

1439

36.9

2896

74.3

Opponents

.655

751

X

398

718

129

221

1300

33.3

2275

58.3

 

 

Schedule

Opponent

Score

MANHATTAN  

79-51  

SAMFORD  

80-54  

MIAMI (OH)  

80-39  

vs NORTHERN IOWA  (Bahamas)

51-46  

vs MISSOURI  (Bahamas)

84-61  

vs DUKE  (Bahamas)

71-76  

ILLINOIS STATE  

69-66  

at COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON  

80-38  

MISSOURI-KANSAS CITY  

99-47  

at MEMPHIS  

87-78  

FIU  

79-55  

vs WESTERN KENTUCKY  (Nashville)

78-55  

KENTUCKY  

80-77  

PROVIDENCE  

80-62  

at SETON HALL  

73-58  

USF  

64-38  

at CONNECTICUT  

73-58  

SYRACUSE  

68-70  

at VILLANOVA  

64-73  

at GEORGETOWN  

51-53  

PITTSBURGH  

64-61  

MARQUETTE  

70-51  

at RUTGERS  

68-48  

at NOTRE DAME  

101-104  

ST. JOHN‘S  

72-58  

at USF  

59-41  

SETON HALL  

79-61  

at DEPAUL  

79-58  

at SYRACUSE  

58-53  

CINCINNATI  

67-51  

NOTRE DAME  

73-57  

vs VILLANOVA  (BE Tourn.)

74-55  

vs NOTRE DAME  (BE Tourn.)

69-57  

vs SYRACUSE  (BE Tourn.)

78-61  

vs NORTH CAROLINA A&T  (ncaa)

79-48  

vs COLORADO STATE  (ncaa)

82-56  

vs OREGON  (ncaa)

77-69  

vs DUKE  (ncaa)

85-63  

vs WICHITA STATE  (ncaa)

72-68  

 

 

Michigan Wolverines

Roster

#

Name

Ht.

Wt.

Pos.

Year

Hometown (High School)

1

Glenn Robinson III

6-06

210

F

FR

St. John, Ind. (Lake Central)

2

Spike Albrecht

5-11

170

G

FR

Crown Pt., Ind. (Northfield Mt. Hermon Prep MA)

3

Trey Burke

6-01

190

G

SO

Columbus, Ohio (Northland)

4

Mitch McGary

6-10

250

F

FR

Chesterton, Ind. (Brewster Academy [N.H.])

5

Eso Akunne

6-02

225

G

SR

Ann Arbor, Mich. (Gabriel Richard)

10

Tim Hardaway Jr.

6-06

205

G

JR

Miami, Fla. (Palmetto Senior)

11

Nik Stauskas

6-06

190

G

FR

Mississauga, Ontario (St. Mark’s School MA)

13

Matt Vogrich

6-04

200

G

SR

Lake Forest, Ill. (Lake Forest)

15

Jon Horford

6-10

250

F

SO

Grand Ledge, Mich. (Grand Ledge)

20

Josh Bartelstein

6-03

210

G

SR

Highland Pk., Ill. (Phillips Exeter Acad. [N.H.])

22

Blake McLimans

6-10

240

F

SR

Hamburg, N.Y. (Worcester Academy [Mass.])

23

Caris LeVert

6-05

170

G

FR

Pickerington, Ohio (Central)

32

Corey Person

6-03

210

G

GS

Kalamazoo, Mich. (Central)

44

Max Bielfeldt

6-07

245

F

FR

Peoria, Ill. (Notre Dame)

52

Jordan Morgan

6-08

250

F

JR

Detroit, Mich. (University of Detroit Jesuit)

 

Coach: John Beilein 6th year at UM: 122-84

35 seasons overall: 673-402

(Erie CC, Nazareth, LeMoyne, Canisius, Richmond, West Virginia, Michigan)

 

Team Stats

Michigan Wolverines

Player

G

GS

Min

FG

FGA

FG%

3pt

3ptA

3pt%

FT

FTA

Trey Burke

38

38

1352

252

549

.459

73

193

.378

126

157

Tim Hardaway, Jr.

37

37

1289

196

447

.438

73

191

.382

75

107

Nik Stauskas

38

32

1171

137

296

.463

79

180

.439

74

87

Glenn Robinson, III

38

38

1274

164

288

.569

23

70

.329

65

97

Mitch McGary

38

7

740

131

218

.601

0

0

.000

23

52

Jordan Morgan

35

27

565

71

121

.587

0

0

.000

22

41

Jon Horford

31

4

276

34

59

.576

0

0

.000

19

27

Caris LeVert

32

1

344

28

88

.318

13

42

.310

7

14

Spike Albrecht

38

0

289

22

50

.440

14

28

.500

9

10

Eso Akunne

18

0

51

8

26

.308

4

12

.333

1

2

Max Bielfeldt

20

0

106

9

20

.450

0

2

.000

5

12

Matt Vogrich

26

6

125

9

27

.333

5

19

.263

3

4

Corey Person

13

0

43

3

7

.429

2

3

.667

2

3

Blake McLimans

16

0

20

4

15

.267

2

11

.182

1

2

Josh Bartelstein

6

0

10

0

1

.000

0

0

.000

0

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
Totals

38

38

7655

1068

2212

.483

288

751

.383

432

617

Opponents

38

38

7655

913

2160

.423

234

729

.321

325

480

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
Player

FT%

F

DQ

Ast

TO

Bk

Stl

Reb

Avg

Pts

Avg

Trey Burke

.803

69

0

257

82

19

62

120

3.2

703

18.5

Tim Hardaway, Jr.

.701

73

0

89

69

17

26

172

4.6

540

14.6

Nik Stauskas

.851

23

0

50

43

9

21

114

3.0

427

11.2

Glenn Robinson, III

.670

43

0

41

32

10

39

209

5.5

416

10.9

Mitch McGary

.442

88

0

24

46

27

41

240

6.3

285

7.5

Jordan Morgan

.537

50

1

13

33

3

15

153

4.4

164

4.7

Jon Horford

.704

45

0

9

14

16

8

69

2.2

87

2.8

Caris LeVert

.500

38

0

25

9

2

5

33

1.0

76

2.4

Spike Albrecht

.900

23

0

28

12

1

12

30

0.8

67

1.8

Eso Akunne

.500

4

0

5

1

0

0

12

0.7

21

1.2

Max Bielfeldt

.417

8

0

3

3

1

3

31

1.6

23

1.2

Matt Vogrich

.750

8

0

5

3

0

2

23

0.9

26

1.0

Corey Person

.667

4

0

2

1

0

0

1

0.1

10

0.8

Blake McLimans

.500

4

0

1

1

1

1

13

0.8

11

0.7

Josh Bartelstein

.000

1

0

1

0

0

1

0

0.0

0

0.0

Team

 

 

 

 

7

 

 

119

3.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Totals

.700

481

1

553

356

106

236

1339

35.2

2856

75.2

Opponents

.677

583

10

476

461

121

200

1219

32.1

2385

62.8

 

 

Schedule

Opponent

Score

vs. Slippery Rock

100-62

vs. IUPUI TV (nit)

91-54

vs. Cleveland State (nit)

77-47

(n) Pittsburgh (nit)

67-62

(n) Kansas State (nit)

71-57

vs. No. 18 North Carolina State

79-72

at Bradley 

74-66

vs. Western Michigan 

73-41

vs. Arkansas 

80-67

vs. Binghamton 

67-39

(n) West Virginia (Brooklyn)

81-66

vs. Eastern Michigan 

93-54

vs. Central Michigan 

88-73

at Northwestern

94-66

vs. Iowa

95-67

vs. Nebraska

62-47

at No. 15 Ohio State

53-56

at No. 9 Minnesota

83-75

vs. Purdue

68-53

at Illinois

74-60

vs. Northwestern

68-46

at No. 3 Indiana

73-81

vs. No. 10 Ohio State

76-74 ot

at Wisconsin

62-65 ot

at Michigan State

52-75

vs. Penn State

79-71

vs. Illinois

71-58

at Penn State

78-84

vs. No. 9 Michigan State

58-57

at Purdue

80-75

vs. No. 2 Indiana

71-72

vs. Penn State (B10)

83-66

vs. No. 22 Wisconsin (B10)

59-68

vs. South Dakota State ncaa

71-56

vs. VCU ncaa

78-53

vs. No. 3 Kansas ncaa

87-85 ot

vs. No. 14 Florida ncaa

79-59

vs. No. 8 Syracuse ncaa

61-56

 

Positional Matchups

Point Guard: Louisville—(3) Peyton Siva               Michigan—(3)Trey Burke

This is where Michigan has to have a big night.  Burke is ice cold in the tournament so far, hitting a paltry 23-71 from the field and 8-31 from three-point territory.  The Wolverines were able to overcome Burke’s cold shooting, but the Cardinals will shut off the UM inside game on enough possessions to force Burke to beat them from the outside.

 

Siva is a talented play-maker and even better defender, so Burke may not get many open looks.  Siva does not have to score to be effective.  He is just one of several secondary options on the Cardinals’ team.  A steal at a key juncture of this game could change momentum and become the deciding factor in a close game, and Siva is much more likely to get that steal than any Michigan player.

 

Advantage: Push

 

Shooting Guard: Louisville—(2) Russ Smith          Michigan—(10) Tim Hardaway, Jr.

Smith has been hot during the tournament, and he has oftentimes carried the offensive load for Pitino.  He can be a streaky shooter, and in the last two weeks, that streak has been scorching to the nets.  Beilein’s game plan must start with keeping the ball away from him as much as possible.

 

Hardaway is a quality 2-guard who would be superior to about 62 of the other teams in the Big Dance.  However, Louisville is not one of those teams.  He will need help handling Smith, and he will need to use a lot of additional energy helping Burke against the Cardinals’ Matchup Press defense.

 

Advantage: Louisville

 

Small Forward: Louisville—(20) Wayne Blackshear        Michigan—(11) Nik Stauskas

This is the weakest position in this game, but it could become vitally important.  Stauskas is a hit or miss proposition.  If he hits a three-pointer early, his confidence could lead him to following that up with several more.  If Louisville’s perimeter is too quick for him, and he cannot get open looks, he will disappear on offense and not be much help on defense.

 

Blackshear is a proven commodity, but that commodity is not blue-chip.  He is a tough, hard-worker who will muscle his way on the boards and play consistent defense, but he will not win or lose this game.  Pitino knows what he will get from him and knows he will be rather consistent.

 

Advantage: Wildcard (It is a push, but only because Stauskas has a 50% chance of having a large advantage or large disadvantage depending on which Stauskas shows up).

 

Power Forward: Louisville—(21) Chane Behanan           Michigan—(1) Glenn Robinson, III

This should be a great matchup between like-minded players.  Both opponents help their teammates and make them look better, but neither player can carry the load.

 

Look for both players to score around 10 points and get 8 rebounds.  Behanan may be a little better inside, while Robinson is a little better helping on the perimeter.

 

Advantage: Push

 

Center: Louisville—(10) Gorgui Dieng       Michigan—(4) Mitch McGary

This position features two future NBA players that are just starting to reach their potentials.  Dieng is a fantastic defensive stopper in the paint, and he can imitate Dikembe Mutombo in the Geico commercials.  He is also a major force on the boards, and he can grab the ball on both ends of the floor.  His ability to stop the dribble-drive gives the rest of the team an opportunity to gamble in the press.

 

McGary is more of a prototypical post player.  He has more moves on the offensive end, and when the inside is crowded, he can locate the open perimeter and deliver a sharp, accurate pass that allows his teammate to shoot quickly.

 

Advantage: Michigan

 

Bench:

Pitino uses his bench more the Beilein, but when the Michigan reserves are in the game, they contribute without weakening the team.

 

The loss of Kevin Ware takes away a considerable part of the Cardinals’ bench production, but on the other hand, his teammates will get a boost with him there to cheer them on.

 

Advantage: Push

Our Pick: Here is how we see this game.  In the first half, both teams will be a little tight, and scoring will be rather low, much like the norm for this season.  It will appear to be dull for the first 10-12 minutes with the scoring at a sub-100-point pace (something like 12-10).

 

The offenses will step up and start to get untracked in the final 8 minutes of the half, and Louisville will finish on a mini-run to go into the locker room with a small lead (28-25 or so).

 

Michigan will gain some momentum early in the second half and have their best showing of the night during the first two of the four-minute stretches.  The Wolverines will take the lead and gain a little momentum, with the score looking like 37-34 with 12 minutes to play.

 

At this point, the Wolverines will start to tire.  Their starters played too many minutes in the semifinal win over Syracuse, and the relentless Cardinal pressure will start to have an effect.  A couple of turnovers and some forced shots due to fatigue will allow Louisville to regain the lead.  Beilein will have to take a timeout with UL leading 43-39 with 9 minutes left.

 

After a brief recovery, the fatigue will prove fatal, and Louisville will go for the jugular with a big run.  By the under 4 timeout, the Cardinals will have a nice cushion, something like 55-46.  Michigan will begin to force multiple ill-advised shots, and Louisville will get a couple of cheap baskets to ice the game.  A couple of late three-pointers will give the Wolverine fans some hope, but the Cardinals will hit some foul shots to clinch the national title.

 

FINAL SCORE: Louisville 62  Michigan 55

 

 

December 27, 2012

PiRate Picks For College and Pro Football: December 27, 2012-January 2, 2013

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:56 pm

This Week’s Selections

 

College

 

1. Duke +9 ½ vs. Cincinnati

 

2. UL-Monroe -7 vs. Ohio U

 

3. Rice +3 vs. Air Force

 

4. Navy +14 vs. Arizona St.

 

5. Texas +3 ½ vs. Oregon St.

 

6. L S U -5 vs. Clemson

 

7. Mississippi St. -2 vs. Northwestern

 

8. Northern Illinois +13 ½ vs. Florida St.

 

9. Florida -14 vs. Louisville

 

N F L

 

1. New York Jets +3 ½ vs. Buffalo

 

2. New England -10 vs. Miami

 

3. New York Giants -7 ½ vs. Philadelphia

 

4. Washington -3 vs. Dallas

 

5. Chicago -3 vs. Detroit

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 17: December 30, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:51 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New York Giants

104.6

103.8

103.3

102.5

3.5

Washington Redskins

102.3

103.1

103.6

104.0

2.5

Dallas Cowboys

99.6

100.2

100.7

101.0

1

Philadelphia Eagles

93.7

92.5

91.7

90.5

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Green Bay Packers

107.2

107.4

107.5

107.5

3

Chicago Bears

104.9

103.2

102.0

100.5

2

Minnesota Vikings

100.9

101.4

101.8

102.0

2.5

Detroit Lions

95.9

95.2

94.7

94.0

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Atlanta Falcons

105.6

106.6

107.4

108.0

2.5

New Orleans Saints

101.3

100.9

100.6

100.0

3.5

Carolina Panthers

99.0

99.1

99.1

99.0

1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

97.7

96.3

95.3

94.0

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Seattle Seahawks

112.7

111.3

110.3

109.0

5

San Francisco 49ers

108.4

107.5

106.9

106.0

2.5

St. Louis Rams

98.1

98.1

98.2

98.0

1.5

Arizona Cardinals

95.0

94.7

94.5

94.0

3.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New England Patriots

111.6

110.0

108.9

107.5

1.5

Miami Dolphins

99.9

100.0

100.1

100.0

2.5

New York Jets

96.6

95.2

94.3

93.0

2

Buffalo Bills

93.0

93.1

93.1

93.0

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Cincinnati Bengals

103.2

103.2

103.2

103.0

2.5

Baltimore Ravens

102.8

103.6

104.1

104.5

5

Pittsburgh Steelers

99.4

100.1

100.6

101.0

2.5

Cleveland Browns

95.6

95.8

96.0

96.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Houston Texans

103.9

104.8

105.5

106.0

2.5

Indianapolis Colts

96.0

98.9

100.9

103.0

3.5

Tennessee Titans

91.9

92.6

93.1

93.5

3.5

Jacksonville Jaguars

91.2

91.2

91.2

91.0

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Denver Broncos

110.4

109.9

109.6

109.0

3

San Diego Chargers

98.7

99.3

99.7

100.0

1.5

Oakland Raiders

90.6

92.0

93.0

94.0

3.5

Kansas City Chiefs

88.3

88.7

88.9

89.0

3.5

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
N Y Jets BUFFALO 0.6 -0.9 -1.8 -3.0 -3 1/2 39   
NEW ENGLAND Miami 13.2 11.5 10.3 9.0 10    46 1/2
CINCINNATI Baltimore 2.9 2.1 1.6 1.0 2 1/2 41   
PITTSBURGH
Cleveland
6.3 6.8 7.1 7.5 NL NL
Houston INDIANAPOLIS 4.4 2.4 1.1 -0.5 6 1/2 46 1/2
TENNESSEE Jacksonville 4.2 4.9 5.4 6.0 4    42   
N Y GIANTS Philadelphia 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.5 7 1/2 46   
WASHINGTON Dallas 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.5 3    48 1/2
Chicago DETROIT 6.0 5.0 4.3 3.5 3    44 1/2
Green Bay MINNESOTA 3.8 3.5 3.2 3.0 3    45 1/2
ATLANTA Tampa Bay 10.4 12.8 14.6 16.5 NL NL
NEW ORLEANS Carolina 5.8 5.3 5.0 4.5 5    54   
DENVER
Kansas City
25.1 24.2 23.7 23.0 16    42   
SAN DIEGO
Oakland
9.6 8.8 8.2 7.5 NL NL
SAN FRANCISCO Arizona 15.9 15.3 14.9 14.5 16 1/2 39   
SEATTLE St. Louis 19.6 18.2 17.1 16.0 10 1/2 41   

 

NFL Playoff Possibilities

 

NFC East

1. The Winner of the Dallas-Washington game wins the division.  If the game ends in a tie, Washington wins the division.

 

2. Washington can earn a wildcard spot it they lose and then Minnesota and Chicago both lose.

 

3. Dallas cannot be a wildcard if they lose; they are out of the playoffs with a loss or tie.

 

4. The New York Giants have a slim Wildcard chance.  They must beat Philadelphia, and then Dalllas, Minnesota, and Chicago must all lose.

 

NFC North

1. Green Bay has won the division.  If the Packers beat Minnesota, they earn the number two seed and a bye.  They can still earn this if they lose while San Francisco and Seattle both lose.

 

2. Minnesota will earn a wildcard spot with a win over Green Bay.  If they lose, then the Vikings need Chicago, Dallas, and the Giants to all lose.

 

3. Chicago can earn a wildcard spot if they beat Detroit and Minnesota loses to Green Bay.

 

NFC South

1. Atlanta has secured the number one seed and a bye

 

NFC West

1. San Francisco will win the division with a win or tie against Arizona

 

2. The 49ers can clinch a bye with a win and a Packer loss to Minnesota

 

3. Seattle will win the division if the 49ers lose, and they beat St. Louis.  If Green Bay also loses, then Seattle could earn a first round bye as well.

 

A F C

All six playoff spots have been decided.  New England won the East, Baltimore won the North, Houston won the South, and Denver won the West.  Cincinnati and Indianapolis are the two wildcards.  Playoff seeding is still undecided.

 

1. Houston controls their own fate.  If they beat Indianapolis, they are the number one seed and earn a bye.  They can still earn the top seed if they lose while New England and Denver both lose.

 

2. If Houston loses, they can still earn a bye if either New England or Denver loses.

 

3. If Houston loses and both New England and Denver win, then the Texans must play in the Wildcard Round.

 

4. Denver has the next best chance of becoming the top seed.  If the Broncos win and the Texans lose, Denver is the top seed and earns a bye.

 

5. If Denver wins and Houston wins, the Broncos earn a first-round bye as the number two seed.

 

6. If Denver loses, they can still clinch the number two seed and a bye if New England loses.

 

7. If Denver loses and New England wins, the Broncos will play in the Wildcard Round.

 

8. New England can only earn the top seed if they beat Miami and both Denver and Houston lose.

 

9. New England will be the number two seed and earn a bye if they win and either Denver or Houston loses but not both.

 

10. Baltimore is the number four seed regardless of what happens this week.

 

11. Indianapolis is the number five seed regardless of what happens this week.

 

12. Cincinnati is the number six seed regardless of what happens this week.

 

Playoff Projections

N F C

1. Atlanta

2. Green Bay

3. San Francisco

4. Washington

5. Seattle

6. Chicago

 

A F C

1. Denver

2. New England

3. Houston

4. Baltimore

5. Indianapolis

6. Cincinnati

 

Wildcard Round

Chicago at San Francisco

Seattle at Washington

Cincinnati at Houston

Indianapolis at Baltimore

 

Divisional Round

Seattle at Atlanta

San Francisco at Green Bay

Baltimore at Denver

Houston at New England

 

Conference Championships

Green Bay at Atlanta

New England at Denver

 

Super Bowl

Denver over Green Bay

 

December 20, 2012

PiRate Picks For College and Pro Football: December 20-26, 2012

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:24 am

College Bowl Previews: December 20-26, 2012

 

Poinsettia Bowl at San Diego

 

Brigham Young vs. San Diego State

 

Line: BYU by 3                                             Totals: 47 ½

 

PiRate: BYU by 8.7                                      Vintage: San Diego St. by 1

 

 

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl at St. Petersburg

 

Central Florida vs. Ball State

 

Line: Central Florida by 7                           Totals: 61 ½

 

PiRate: Central Florida by 6.6                     Vintage: Central Florida by 5

 

 

New Orleans Bowl

 

Louisiana-Lafayette vs. East Carolina

 

Line: UL-Lafayette by 5                               Totals: 65 ½

 

PiRate: UL-Lafayette by 3.4                        Vintage: UL-Lafayette by 0.5

 

MAACO Bowl at Las Vegas

 

Washington vs. Boise State

 

Line: Boise St. by 5 ½                                   Totals: 44 ½

 

PiRate: Washington by 2.6                           Vintage: Boise St. by 2.5

 

Hawaii Bowl at Honolulu

 

Fresno State vs. S M U

 

Line: Fresno St. by 12 ½                               Totals: 59 ½

 

PiRate: Fresno St. by 9.7                              Vintage: Fresno St. by 17

 

Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl at Detroit

 

Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan

 

Line: Western Kentucky by 5 ½                  Totals: 57 ½

 

PiRate: Western Kentucky by 4.8               Vintage: Central Michigan by 1.5

 

 

This Week’s Selections

 

College

 

1. San Diego State +3 vs. Brigham Young

 

2. UL-Lafayette -5 vs. East Carolina

 

3. Boise St. -5 ½ vs. Washington

 

 

N F L

 

1. Atlanta -3 ½ vs. Detroit

 

2. Pittsburgh -3 ½ vs. Cincinnati

 

3. Philadelphia +7 vs. Washington

 

4. New York Giants -2 ½ vs. Baltimore

 

5. Minnesota +7 ½ vs. Houston

 

6. Arizona +5 ½ vs. Chicago

 

7. 6-point Teaser

Green Bay -6 ½ vs. Tennessee

Carolina -2 vs. Oakland

 

8. 6-point Teaser

Pittsburgh +2 ½ vs. Cincinnati

Indianapolis -5 vs. Kansas City

 

9. 6-point Teaser

Denver -7 vs. Cleveland

Minnesota +13 ½ vs. Houston

 

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